Sample records for volcanoes wildfires winter

  1. Did the Laki volcano eruption cause the cold winter of 1783-1784? (United States)

    Tretkoff, Ernie


    In June 1783 the Laki volcano in Iceland began to erupt and continued erupting for months, causing a major environmental disaster. The eruption spewed out toxic sulfuric acid aerosols, which spread over northern latitudes and caused thousands of deaths. That summer, there were heat waves, widespread famines, crop failures, and livestock losses. During the following winter, temperatures in Europe were about 2°C below average for the late 1700s; the winter was also one of the most severe of the past 500 years in eastern North America. The Laki eruption has been blamed for the anomalously cold winter of 1783-1784. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL046696, 2011)

  2. Volcanoes (United States)

    ... or more from a volcano. Before a Volcanic Eruption The following are things you can do to ... in case of an emergency. During a Volcanic Eruption Follow the evacuation order issued by authorities and ...

  3. Winter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lawanna Holt


    Winter is snowy and cold season. Christmas iS in winter. Winter is when you get out for Christmas break. Winter is when you have hot chocolate with marshal mallows. `Winter is the season for colds and sinus problems.

  4. Volcanoes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    In the past thousand years,volcanoes have claimed more than 300,000 lives. Volcanology is ayoung and dangerous science that helps us against the power of the Earth itself.We live on a fiery planet. Nearly 2000 miles beneath our feet, the Earth's inner core reachestemperatures of 12,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Molten rock or magma, rises to the earth's surface. Acold, rigid crust fractured into some twenty plates. When magma breaks through crust it becomes

  5. Wildfire Preparedness (United States)

    ... Fire Safety Checklist - Haitian Wild Fire Safety Checklist - Korean Wild Fire Safety Checklist - Spanish Wild Fire Safety Checklist - Tagalog Wild Fire Safety Checklist - Vietnamese Learn More How to Prevent Wildfires Learn How We ...

  6. Winter grazing decreases the probability of fire-induced mortality of bunchgrasses and may reduce wildfire size: a response to Smith et al (this issue) (United States)

    A recent commentary by Smith et al. (this issue) attempted to discount the findings of our study (Davies et al. this issue) by claiming that our study contained methodological errors and lacked the data necessary to support our conclusions, in particular that winter grazing may reduce the probabilit...

  7. Green Science: Wildfires (United States)

    Palliser, Janna


    Every summer, fires rage in different areas of the western United States. They are often massive, out of control, and extremely destructive. How do these fires begin and how are they controlled? What are the overall impacts of a wildfire? Are there any benefits of a wildfire? These questions will be addressed in this article. (Contains 3 online…

  8. Wildfire Smoke Health Watch

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts


    Smoke from wildfires can be dangerous to your health. In this podcast, you will learn the health threats of wildfire smoke and steps you can take to minimize these effects.  Created: 7/23/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (PHPR).   Date Released: 7/23/2012.

  9. Volcano Preparedness (United States)

    ... You might feel better to learn that an ‘active’ volcano is one that has erupted in the past ... miles away. If you live near a known volcano, active or dormant, following these tips will help you ...

  10. Effects of wildfire on blue oak in the northern Sacramento Valley (United States)

    Marc Horney; Richard B. Standiford; Douglas McCreary; Jerry Tecklin; Roy Richards


    The objective of this project was to develop a technique for rapidly determining the extent of wildfire damage to blue oaks (Quercus douglasii) that would be usable by landowners without requiring extensive training. In late winter 2000, 100 oaks of various sizes and degrees of damage were selected from 10 plots located where wildfires had burned in...

  11. Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought? (United States)

    Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.


    Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

  12. Wildfire Disasters and Nursing. (United States)

    Hanes, Patricia Frohock


    Multiple factors contribute to wildfires in California and other regions: drought, winds, climate change, and spreading urbanization. Little has been done to study the multiple roles of nurses related to wildfire disasters. Major nursing organizations support disaster education for nurses. It is essential for nurses to recognize their roles in each phase of the disaster cycle: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Skills learned in the US federal all-hazards approach to disasters can then be adapted to more specific disasters, such as wildfires, and issues affecting health care. Nursing has an important role in each phase of the disaster cycle.

  13. Vanishing Volcano

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Mauna Loa, the world’s largest active volcano,is sinking into the Pacific Ocean——and it’s taking the main island of Hawaii with it! The problem:The mighty volcano has gained too much weight, says Peter Lipman of the U. S. Geological Survey.

  14. Dante's volcano (United States)


    This video contains two segments: one a 0:01:50 spot and the other a 0:08:21 feature. Dante 2, an eight-legged walking machine, is shown during field trials as it explores the inner depths of an active volcano at Mount Spurr, Alaska. A NASA sponsored team at Carnegie Mellon University built Dante to withstand earth's harshest conditions, to deliver a science payload to the interior of a volcano, and to report on its journey to the floor of a volcano. Remotely controlled from 80-miles away, the robot explored the inner depths of the volcano and information from onboard video cameras and sensors was relayed via satellite to scientists in Anchorage. There, using a computer generated image, controllers tracked the robot's movement. Ultimately the robot team hopes to apply the technology to future planetary missions.

  15. Wildfire risk adaptation: propensity of forestland owners to purchase wildfire insurance in the southern United States (United States)

    Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither


    Economic and ecological damages caused by wildfire are alarming, and such damages are expected to rise with changes in wildfire regimes, calling for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Among wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners is purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages...

  16. What Are Volcano Hazards? (United States)

    ... Sheet 002-97 Revised March 2008 What Are Volcano Hazards? Volcanoes give rise to numerous geologic and ... as far as 15 miles from the volcano. Volcano Landslides A landslide or debris avalanche is a ...

  17. Wildfire and landscape change (United States)

    Santi, P.; Cannon, S.; DeGraff, J.


    Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and bedrock. These changes typically lead to increased erosion through sheetwash, rilling, dry ravel, and increased mass movement in the form of floods, debris flow, rockfall, and landslides. These process changes bring about landform changes as hillslopes are lowered and stream channels aggrade or incise at increased rates. Furthermore, development of alluvial fans, debris fans, and talus cones are enhanced. The window of disturbance to the landscape caused by wildfire is typically on the order of three to four years, with some effects persisting up to 30 years.

  18. Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty (United States)

    Thompson, M.


    Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

  19. Santorini Volcano (United States)

    Druitt, T.H.; Edwards, L.; Mellors, R.M.; Pyle, D.M.; Sparks, R.S.J.; Lanphere, M.; Davies, M.; Barreirio, B.


    Santorini is one of the most spectacular caldera volcanoes in the world. It has been the focus of significant scientific and scholastic interest because of the great Bronze Age explosive eruption that buried the Minoan town of Akrotiri. Santorini is still active. It has been dormant since 1950, but there have been several substantial historic eruptions. Because of this potential risk to life, both for the indigenous population and for the large number of tourists who visit it, Santorini has been designated one of five European Laboratory Volcanoes by the European Commission. Santorini has long fascinated geologists, with some important early work on volcanoes being conducted there. Since 1980, research groups at Cambridge University, and later at the University of Bristol and Blaise Pascal University in Clermont-Ferrand, have collected a large amount of data on the stratigraphy, geochemistry, geochronology and petrology of the volcanics. The volcanic field has been remapped at a scale of 1:10 000. A remarkable picture of cyclic volcanic activity and magmatic evolution has emerged from this work. Much of this work has remained unpublished until now. This Memoir synthesizes for the first time all the data from the Cambridge/Bristol/Clermont groups, and integrates published data from other research groups. It provides the latest interpretation of the tectonic and magmatic evolution of Santorini. It is accompanied by the new 1:10 000 full-colour geological map of the island.

  20. Wildfires Tracked by Minnesota DNR (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This theme shows the locations of wildfires for which the DNR was the primary responding agency. These include fires not only on state lands, but also rural private...

  1. Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome (United States)

    Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac


    Rapid changes in wildfire patterns are documented globally, increasing pressure to identify regions that may experience increases in wildfire in future decades. Temperate grassland and savanna biomes were some of the most frequently burned regions on Earth; however, large wildfires have been largely absent from the Great Plains of North America over the last century. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth analysis of changes in large wildfire (>400 ha) regime characteristics over a 30 year period across the Great Plains. For the entire biome, (i) the average number of large wildfires increased from 33.4 ± 5.6 per year from 1985 to 1994 to 116.8 ± 28.8 wildfires per year from 2005 to 2014, (ii) total area burned by large wildfires increased 400%, (iii) over half the ecoregions had greater than a 70% probability of a large wildfire occurring in the last decade, and (iv) seasonality of large wildfires remained relatively similar.

  2. UAS Developments Supporting Wildfire Observations (United States)

    Ambrosia, V. G.; Dahlgren, R. P.; Watts, A.; Reynolds, K. W.; Ball, T.


    Wildfires are regularly occurring emergency events that threaten life, property, and natural resources in every U.S. State and many countries around the world. Despite projections that $1.8 billion will be spent by U.S. Federal agencies alone on wildfires in 2014, the decades-long trend of increasing fire size, severity, and cost is expected to continue. Furthermore, the enormous potential for UAS (and concomitant sensor systems) to serve as geospatial intelligence tools to improve the safety and effectiveness of fire management, and our ability to forecast fire and smoke movements, remains barely tapped. Although orbital sensor assets are can provide the geospatial extent of wildfires, generally those resources are limited in use due to their spatial and temporal resolution limitations. These two critical elements make orbital assets of limited utility for tactical, real-time wildfire management, or for continuous scientific analysis of the temporal dynamics related to fire energy release rates and plume concentrations that vary significantly thru a fire's progression. Large UAS platforms and sensors can and have been used to monitor wildfire events at improved temporal, spatial and radiometric scales, but more focus is being placed on the use of small UAS (sUAS) and sensors to support wildfire observation strategies. The use of sUAS is therefore more critical for TACTICAL management purposes, rather than strategic observations, where small-scale fire developments are critical to understand. This paper will highlight the historical development and use of UAS for fire observations, as well as the current shift in focus to smaller, more affordable UAS for more rapid integration into operational use on wildfire events to support tactical observation strategies, and support wildfire science measurement inprovements.

  3. Winter MVC


    Castellón Gadea, Pasqual


    Winter MVC és un framework de presentació basat en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodologia de configuracions. Winter MVC es un framework de presentación basado en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodología de configuraciones. Winter MVC is a presentation framework that simplifies Spring MVC configuration methodology.

  4. Net benefits of wildfire prevention education efforts (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; Karen L. Abt; Ronda. Sutphen


    Wildfire prevention education efforts involve a variety of methods, including airing public service announcements, distributing brochures, and making presentations, which are intended to reduce the occurrence of certain kinds of wildfires. A Poisson model of preventable Florida wildfires from 2002 to 2007 by fire management region was developed. Controlling for...

  5. Stream Water and Soil Water Chemistry Following the Table Mountain Wildfire, Washington (United States)

    Roccanova, V. J.; Gazis, C. A.


    Severe wildfire occurrence in the Western United States increased throughout the 20th century and has continued to increase into the 21st century. Global climate change resulting from natural and anthropogenic sources is considered a contributor to this increase in wildfire severity. Fire suppression techniques developed in the early 20th century are also a factor in increased severe wildfire occurrence as they augment available fuel loads. Biomass burning releases nutrients that are held within trees and plants. Nitrogen, phosphorous, and calcium levels have been documented as increasing in stream waters as a result of wildfire. As severe wildfire occurrence increases, so does the likelihood that stream, and to a lesser extent groundwater, will be loaded with nutrients and sediments as a result of wildfire activity. Increased nutrient loads can cause algal blooms that deplete streams of oxygen, important to aquatic plants and animals that reside in these streams. These changes in water quality can also affect humans who depend on these streams for irrigation and drinking water purposes. The Table Mountain wildfire in Washington State was started by a lightning strike that occurred at approximately 8:00 PM on Saturday September 8th, 2012. The fire burned for approximately one month and was declared to be 100% contained on Friday October 5th, 2012. Over this period the fire burned a total of 171 square kilometers of forest. In this study multiple stream and soil water samples were collected from three types of area in the winter through summer following the fire: severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned. All areas sampled have similar bedrock and vegetation cover. These samples were analyzed for major ions and trace element concentrations. Select samples will also be analyzed for strontium isotope ratios. The results of these geochemical analyses will be presented. Because calcium and strontium have similar properties, their concentrations can be combined

  6. Lichens, wildfire, and caribou on the taiga ecosystem of northcentral Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Miller


    Full Text Available Terrestrial lichens are unique organisms that are pioneers on bare sand and rock, survive desiccation and reproduce both sexually and asexually. They compete poorly with dense, aggressive vascular flora. Wildfires require organic matter as fuels, are the driving force in perpetuation of the Taiga Ecosystem in a heterogeneous environment and, if left alone, are self controlling. Caribou wintering on the Taiga are dependent on: (1 a terricolous lichen forage supply for most of the winter, (2 a heterogeneous environment to cope with predators and the changing nival environment, and (3 natural wildfires to supply these needs. Wildlife control on the Taiga winter range is not recommended as a management tool for barren-ground caribou.

  7. Global Volcano Locations Database (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC maintains a database of over 1,500 volcano locations obtained from the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, Volcanoes of the World publication. The...

  8. A Scientific Excursion: Volcanoes. (United States)

    Olds, Henry, Jr.


    Reviews an educationally valuable and reasonably well-designed simulation of volcanic activity in an imaginary land. VOLCANOES creates an excellent context for learning information about volcanoes and for developing skills and practicing methods needed to study behavior of volcanoes. (Author/JN)

  9. Wildfire on Karst: an Overview (United States)

    Coleborn, K.; Lupingna, A.; Flemons, I.; Nagra, G.; Treble, P. C.; Andersen, M. S.; Baker, A.; Tozer, M.; Fairchild, I. J.; Baker, A.; Meehan, S.


    Wildfires dramatically change the surface environment by removing vegetation and soil microbial communities and altering soil structure and geochemistry. Karst subsurface processes such as dissolution, cave formation and speleothem deposition are sensitive to environmental change, which is precisely why speleothems have been widely used as recorders of surface and climate change at an annual to millennial temporal scale. The effect of fire on karst processes is poorly understood. We hypothesise that a wildfire induced change at the surface will impact karst dissolution and precipitation processes. Firstly, sterilisation of the soil by heating causes a reduction in soil CO2 concentration which is a key component in dissolution processes. Secondly, removal of vegetation alters surface albedo and soil water storage properties. This could change the hydrology and isotopic signature of speleothem-forming drip water. We also hypothesise that a wildfire will produce a unique biogeochemical signature due to a change in the organic and inorganic properties of soil, which can be transported into speleothem forming drip water. Fire changes the organic matter character which is an important component in the mobilisation and transport of trace metals. Combustion of vegetation results in addition of ash derived minerals to the soil. Quantifying the biogeochemical signature from a burnt landscape will enable us to determine whether this wildfire signature is preserved in speleothems. This would provide the opportunity to use speleothems as recorders of fire history for the first time. Determining the impact of fire on karst processes would inform fire management and karst conservation policies.

  10. Winter Flings

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Nicole Sy


    Summer flings.Those summer days of fun under the sun,careless and worryfree,drifting away into those breezy summer nights.It's a concept somewhat romanticized by the media but still pretty common in Western societies,and seemingly other cultures infiltrated by Western media.One can only imagine my surprise when my friend told me there were such things as winter flings too.That's right,winter flings.Strange as it seems,this was introduced to me by a friend from Toronto,a city on the east coast of Canada.I'm from the west coast of the country,so we cower in our homes when it hits -15℃.Our pipes freeze,we have no running water,and sometimes we have no electricity.Toronto lies on the east so it gets pretty nasty winters,sometimes dipping to -40℃.I'm a winter wuss.

  11. Winter Havoc

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    @@ Heavy snowfall that triggered avalanches on January 1-8 in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region increased the number of fatalities and damages that have already accrued over this year's extreme winter weather.

  12. Volcano seismology (United States)

    Chouet, B.


    A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic

  13. Effects of Wildfire on Fluvial Sediment Regime through Perturbations in Dry-Ravel (United States)

    Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Storesund, R.; Keller, E. A.


    In steep chaparral ecosystems with Mediterranean climate, dry ravel is a natural process resulting from wildfire disturbance that supplies sediment to fluvial systems. When dense chaparral vegetation burns, sediment accumulated on steep hillslopes is released for dry-season transport (dry ravel) down steep hillslopes during or soon after the wildfire. Results of a field study in southern California's Transverse Ranges illustrate the effect of wildfire on fluvial sediment regime in an unregulated chaparral system. Big Sycamore Canyon in the steep Santa Monica Mountains burned during the May 2013 Springs Fire and experienced one small sediment-transporting stormflow during the following winter. We conducted pre- and post-storm field campaigns during the fall and winter following the fire to quantify the effect of wildfire on the fluvial sediment regime. We utilized a sediment mass balance approach in which: 1) sediment supply, consisting primarily of dry ravel-derived deposits composed of relatively fine grained-sediment, was measured in the upstream basin and in the hillslope-channel margin adjacent to the study reach; 2) changes in storage in the study reach were quantified by analyzing the difference between pre- and post-storm channel topography derived from Terrestrial LiDAR Scanning (TLS) and field surveys; and 3) transport from the study reach was estimated as the difference between supply and change in storage where uncertainty is estimated using calculated sediment transport as a comparison. Results demonstrate channel deposition caused by changes in the short-term post-wildfire sediment regime. The increased sediment supply and storage are associated with significant changes in morphology, channel bed-material characteristics, and ecology. These results suggest that dry-ravel processes are an important factor to consider in post-wildfire sediment management.

  14. Volcanoes: Nature's Caldrons Challenge Geochemists. (United States)

    Zurer, Pamela S.


    Reviews various topics and research studies on the geology of volcanoes. Areas examined include volcanoes and weather, plate margins, origins of magma, magma evolution, United States Geological Survey (USGS) volcano hazards program, USGS volcano observatories, volcanic gases, potassium-argon dating activities, and volcano monitoring strategies.…

  15. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes


    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  16. The Influence of Wildfire on Hillslope Geometry (United States)

    Rengers, F. K.; Inbar, A.; Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.


    In southeastern Australia wildfire occurs regularly, resulting in increased hillslope erosion. However, post-wildfire erosion processes differ depending on hillslope aspect. Equatorial (north)-facing slopes are drier than polar (south)-facing slopes and experience overland flow erosion after wildfire. By contrast, overland flow is not an active process on polar-facing slopes, even after high-intensity wildfires. These differences in post-wildfire erosion processes are accompanied by observations that slope angle and curvature also differ by hillslope aspect. An airborne LiDAR dataset flown over our study area in the Kinglake National Park, Victoria shows that the mean slope angle of polar-facing slopes is nearly 5 degrees steeper than equatorial-facing slopes. We have sought to test the hypothesis that aspect differences in post-wildfire erosion processes are sufficient to create differences in hillslope geometry. In order to test this hypothesis, we use a simple 1D model that simulates hillslope evolution over thousands of years. We limit our model to low-drainage area hillslopes where debris-flows are unlikely to occur. Erosion is modeled as nonlinear diffusion regardless of aspect during non-wildfire model years. Wildfire is modeled by changing the erosional processes on each slope aspect to reflect the effects of post-wildfire erosion according to a wildfire recurrence interval. For two years following a model wildfire we allow overland flow erosion to erode equatorial-facing slopes, whereas polar-facing slopes erode according to nonlinear diffusion for only one year following a wildfire. The erosion parameters on the polar-facing slopes are changed during this period to reflect higher post-wildfire erosion. In addition to erosional processes, we use an exponential soil production law to simulate new soil formation every model year. Our preliminary results suggest that changes in erosional magnitude associated with the different wildfire erosional processes are

  17. Improving European Wildfire Emergency Information Services (United States)

    Bielski, Conrad; Whitmore, Ceri; O'Brien, Victoria; Zeug, Gunter; Kalas, Milan; Porras, Ignasi; Solé, Josep Maria; Gálvez, Pedro; Navarro, Maria; Nurmi, Pertti; Kilpinen, Juha; Ylinen, Kaisa; Furllanelo, Cesare; Maggio, Valerio; Alikadic, Azra; Dolci, Claudia


    European wildfires are a seasonal natural hazard that many regions must battle regularly. However, as European urbanization continues to encroach on natural areas and the climate changes it is likely that the frequency of wildfires will increase likewise the number of areas prone to wildfires. It is therefore paramount not only to increase public awareness of this natural hazard but also to be prepared by improving wildfire hazard forecasting, monitoring, and mapping. As part of the H2020 funded project entitled Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies: I-REACT (Grant Agreement #700256) , there is a task with the goal to develop models and implement technologies to improve the support around the entire emergency management cycle with respect to wildfire hazards. Based on operational weather forecasts, pan-European geospatial data as well as regularly acquired Earth Observation imagery through the Copernicus program, and other sources of information such as social media channels a European wildfire service is being developed. This will be achieved by improving on the successes of the European Forest Fire Information Service (EFFIS) and the guidance of emergency managers experienced in wildfire hazards. Part of the research will be to reduce the number of false alarms. However, once a wildfire has been identified, the system focuses on the disaster region to provide situational information to the decision makers applying state-of-the-art approaches to improve disaster response. Post-wildfire information will continue to be produced for damage and recovery assessments. Ultimately, I-REACT expects to reduce wildfire costs to life, property and livelihood. This work will improve wildfire disaster emergency management through the development and integration of new data and technologies respectively as well as the knowledge from emergency managers who not only understand the hazard itself but also can provide insights into the information

  18. Foci of Volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, I.


    One may assume a center of volcanic activities beneath the edifice of an active volcano, which is here called the focus of the volcano. Sometimes it may be a ''magma reservoir''. Its depth may differ with types of magma and change with time. In this paper, foci of volcanoes are discussed from the viewpoints of four items: (1) Geomagnetic changes related with volcanic activities; (2) Crustal deformations related with volcanic activities; (3) Magma transfer through volcanoes; and (4) Subsurface structure of calderas.

  19. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman


    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  20. Wind erosion of soils burned by wildfire (United States)

    N. S. Wagenbrenner; M. J. Germino; B. K. Lamb; R. B. Foltz; P. R. Robichaud


    Wind erosion and aeolian transport processes are largely unstudied in the post-wildfire environment, but recent studies have shown that wind erosion can play a major role in burned landscapes. A wind erosion monitoring system was installed immediately following a wildfire in southeastern Idaho, USA to measure wind erosion from the burned area (Figure 1). This paper...

  1. Optimal timing of wildfire prevention education (United States)

    D. T. Butry; J. P. Prestemon; K. L. Abt


    Public outreach and wildfire education activities have been shown to limit the number of unintentional human-caused ignitions (i.e., 'accidental' wildfires). Such activities include the airing of public service announcements, visiting with homeowners in at-risk areas, distributing informative brochures and flyers, hosting of public forums (with presentations...

  2. Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies (United States)

    Wittenberg, Lea


    potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

  3. Hydrologic effects of large southwestern USA wildfires significantly increase regional water supply: fact or fiction? (United States)

    Wine, M. L.; Cadol, D.


    In recent years climate change and historic fire suppression have increased the frequency of large wildfires in the southwestern USA, motivating study of the hydrological consequences of these wildfires at point and watershed scales, typically over short periods of time. These studies have revealed that reduced soil infiltration capacity and reduced transpiration due to tree canopy combustion increase streamflow at the watershed scale. However, the degree to which these local increases in runoff propagate to larger scales—relevant to urban and agricultural water supply—remains largely unknown, particularly in semi-arid mountainous watersheds co-dominated by winter snowmelt and the North American monsoon. To address this question, we selected three New Mexico watersheds—the Jemez (1223 km2), Mogollon (191 km2), and Gila (4807 km2)—that together have been affected by over 100 wildfires since 1982. We then applied climate-driven linear models to test for effects of fire on streamflow metrics after controlling for climatic variability. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and snowpack variability, significantly more streamflow discharged from the Gila watershed for three to five years following wildfires, consistent with increased regional water yield due to enhanced infiltration-excess overland flow and groundwater recharge at the large watershed scale. In contrast, we observed no such increase in discharge from the Jemez watershed following wildfires. Fire regimes represent a key difference between the contrasting responses of the Jemez and Gila watersheds with the latter experiencing more frequent wildfires, many caused by lightning strikes. While hydrologic dynamics at the scale of large watersheds were previously thought to be climatically dominated, these results suggest that if one fifth or more of a large watershed has been burned in the previous three to five years, significant increases in water yield can be expected.

  4. Before, During, and After a Wildfire

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts


    More and more people are making their homes in woodland settings – in or near forests, rural areas, or remote mountain sites - areas in which wildfires are more likely to occur. Wildfires often begin unnoticed. They spread quickly, igniting brush, trees, and homes. CDC recommends taking steps before, during, and after local wildfires to reduce the effect they have on your life.  Created: 11/1/2007 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 11/1/2007.

  5. Impacts of Wildfire on Hawaii Island's Pre-Contact Landscape (United States)

    Stock, J. D.; Bishaw, K.; McGeehin, J. P.; Perkins, K. S.; Austin, B.; Kirch, P.


    The arid western slopes of Hawaii's Mauna Kea volcano record pre-historic landscape changes that accompanied occupation by Native Hawaiians. Stratigraphy in the Keamuku area shows that a long (c. 38-42 ka) period of airfall and eolian deposition and pedogenesis was terminated by at least 8 layers of charcoal-rich sediment, interbedded with sand and shells of land snails that were transported by running water. Streams across Keamuku then cut several meters down through these deposits to bedrock of the Hamakua Volcanics. Radiocarbon ages indicate that charcoal-rich layers were deposited from the 13th-14th Century A.D. (e.g., 1207 +/- 48; 1287 +/- 128 A.D.) through the 17th - 18th century (e.g., 1648 +/- 157; 1651 +/- 160 A.D.; mean probability +/- 2 sigma. Stream incision commenced sometime thereafter. We measured saturated hydraulic conductivities (Ksat) with a mean of 56 mm/hour in nearby soils with tree and shrub cover. This value exceeds common hourly rainfall intensities, so runoff from these landscapes is unlikely without disturbance. Work at a wildfire boundary in Molokai, Hawaii, shows that just after fire disturbance, saturated hydraulic conductivities of similar Hawaiian soils are one half to one fifth of unburned equivalents. One interpretation is that during the 13th-19th centuries and later, humans burned shrub- or tree-covered landscapes reducing soil infiltration capacities. Over the course of several hundred years of burning, one or more large storms with sustained hourly rainfall intensities exceeding the infiltration capacity of the altered land surface occurred soon enough after fires to generate runoff in a place that had not previously experienced it. This runoff carved the existing gully network across over 100 km2 of Keamuku area, as wildfires pushed the shrub-/tree-line upslope. This interpretation joins a growing body of thought that pre-historic human's use of fire fundamentally altered landscapes.

  6. Wildfires (United States)

    ... blog NFPA Xchange™ Podcasts Press Room RSS feeds Social media Training & Events By type Toggle this sub-menu open or closed Certifications Classroom Training Conferences Hands-on Online Training On-Site ...

  7. Wildfires (United States)

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  8. Volcanoes - Direct Download (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer includes Holocene volcanoes, which are those thought to be active in the last 10,000 years, that are within an extended area of the northern...

  9. Italian active volcanoes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RobertoSantacroce; RenawCristofolini; LuigiLaVolpe; GiovanniOrsi; MauroRosi


    The eruptive histories, styles of activity and general modes of operation of the main active Italian volcanoes,Etna, Vulcano, Stromboli, Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei and Ischia, are described in a short summary.

  10. Climate variability and wildfire risk and occurrence in northern Spain (United States)

    Garcia Codron, J. C.; Rasilla, D.; Diego, C.; Carracedo, V.


    In spite of their reputation of wetness, wildfires are a frequent event in Cantabria (Northern Spain), but their seasonality does not match the typical warm season maximum generalized in most of the Iberian Peninsula. They occur at the end of the winter and the beginning of the spring (January to March), being mostly anthropogenically triggered due to the necessity of preparing pastures in the uplands. However, catastrophic episodes of generalized burning are controlled by different atmospheric mechanisms, namely the occurrence of "Suradas", a downslope windstorms which combines high winds speeds and low humidities, and long periods of drought in late fall and winter. This contribution analyzes long term trends (1961 onwards) of several climatic variables during the highest wildfire risk period in order to assess to what extent the occurrence of wildfires may be linked to the recent climatic variability. Raw meteorological values of temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation are transformed into a well-known meteorological fire weather index, the Canadian Forest Fire Index (FWI). Besides, monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index we used to assess the spatial and temporal magnitude and intensity of droughts. Our results show that the regional climate has become warmer and drier, due to the combined effects of increases in temperatures, sunshine duration, and the decrease in relative humidity and precipitation, variables that are likely to play an important role in drought. Unknown in the 60s, 70s and most of the 80s, drought has become a relatively frequent phenomenon during the last two decades, and, in fact, the two most extreme episodes of drought at century scale, during 1989-1990 and 1993, occur in the 90. However, both the frequency and the intensity of "Suradas" have reduced, and consequently, the high fire risk episodes are now less frequent, but their absolute maximum values remain unchanged. Those regional climate trends are strongly

  11. Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology (United States)

    Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S


    Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

  12. Wildfire and the future of water supply. (United States)

    Bladon, Kevin D; Emelko, Monica B; Silins, Uldis; Stone, Micheal


    In many parts of the world, forests provide high quality water for domestic, agricultural, industrial, and ecological needs, with water supplies in those regions inextricably linked to forest health. Wildfires have the potential to have devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems and community drinking water supply through impacts on water quantity and quality. In recent decades, a combination of fuel load accumulation, climate change, extensive droughts, and increased human presence in forests have resulted in increases in area burned and wildfire severity-a trend predicted to continue. Thus, the implications of wildfire for many downstream water uses are increasingly concerning, particularly the provision of safe drinking water, which may require additional treatment infrastructure and increased operations and maintenance costs in communities downstream of impacted landscapes. A better understanding of the effects of wildfire on water is needed to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect globally critical water supplies originating in forested environments.

  13. US Forest Service Wildfire Hazard Potential 2014 (United States)

    US Forest Service, Department of Agriculture — The wildfire hazard potential (WHP) is a raster geospatial product at 270-meter resolution covering all lands in the conterminous United States. It can help to...

  14. Wildfires in Chile: A review (United States)

    Úbeda, Xavier; Sarricolea, Pablo


    This paper reviews the literature examining the wildfire phenomenon in Chile. Since ancient times, Chile's wildfires have shaped the country's landscape, but today, as in many other parts of the world, the fire regime - pattern, frequency and intensity - has grown at an alarming rate. In 2014, > 8000 fires were responsible for burning c. 130,000 ha, making it the worst year in Chile's recent history. The reasons for this increase appear to be the increment in the area planted with flammable species; the rejection of these landscape modifications on the part of local communities that target these plantations in arson attacks; and, the adoption of intensive forest management practices resulting in the accumulation of a high fuel load. These trends have left many native species in a precarious situation and forest plantation companies under considerable financial pressure. An additional problem is posed by fires at the wildland urban interface (WUI), threatening those inhabitants that live in Chile's most heavily populated cities. The prevalence of natural fires in Chile; the relationship between certain plant species and fire in terms of seed germination strategies and plant adaptation; the relationship between fire and invasive species; and, the need for fire prevention systems and territorial plans that include fire risk assessments are some of the key aspects discussed in this article. Several of the questions raised will require further research, including just how fire-dependent the ecosystems in Chile are, how the forest at the WUI can be better managed to prevent human and material damage, and how best to address the social controversy that pits the Mapuche population against the timber companies.

  15. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities (United States)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.


    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  16. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson


    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina


    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  18. Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska ESI: VOLCANOS (Volcano Points) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains the locations of volcanos in Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Vector points in the data set represent the location of the volcanos....

  19. Short-term post-wildfire dry-ravel processes in a chaparral fluvial system (United States)

    Florsheim, Joan L.; Chin, Anne; O'Hirok, Linda S.; Storesund, Rune


    Dry ravel, the transport of sediment by gravity, transfers material from steep hillslopes to valley bottoms during dry conditions. Following wildfire, dry ravel greatly increases in the absence of vegetation on hillslopes, thereby contributing to sediment supply at the landscape scale. Dry ravel has been documented as a dominant hillslope erosion mechanism following wildfire in chaparral environments in southern California. However, alteration after initial deposition is not well understood, making prediction of post-fire flood hazards challenging. The majority of Big Sycamore Canyon burned during the May 2013 Springs Fire leaving ash and a charred layer that covered hillslopes and ephemeral channels. Dry-ravel processes following the fire produced numerous deposits in the hillslope-channel transition zone. Field data focus on: 1) deposition from an initial post-wildfire dry-ravel pulse; and 2) subsequent alteration of dry ravel deposits over a seven-month period between September 2013 and April 2014. We quantify geomorphic responses in dry ravel deposits including responses during the one small winter storm that generated runoff following the fire. Field measurements document volumetric changes after initial post-wildfire deposition of sediment derived from dry ravel. Erosion and deposition mechanisms that occurred within dry-ravel deposits situated in the hillslope-channel transition zone included: 1) mobilization and transport of a portion or the entire deposit by fluvial erosion; 2) rilling on the surface of the unconsolidated deposits; 3) deposition on deposits via continued hillslope sediment supply; and 4) mass wasting that transfers sediment within deposits where surface profiles are near the angle of repose. Terrestrial LiDAR scanning point clouds were analyzed to generate profiles quantifying depth of sediment erosion or deposition over remaining dry ravel deposits after the first storm season. This study contributes to the understanding of potential

  20. Volcanoes: Coming Up from Under. (United States)

    Science and Children, 1980


    Provides specific information about the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in March 1980. Also discusses how volcanoes are formed and how they are monitored. Words associated with volcanoes are listed and defined. (CS)

  1. Wildfires Rage in Southern California (United States)


    Large plumes of smoke rising from devastating wildfires burning near Los Angeles and San Diego on Sunday, October 26, 2003, are highlighted in this set of images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). These images include a natural color view from MISR's nadir camera (left) and an automated stereo height retrieval (right). The tops of the smoke plumes range in altitude from 500 - 3000 meters, and the stereo retrieval clearly differentiates the smoke from patches of high-altitude cirrus. Plumes are apparent from fires burning near the California-Mexico border, San Diego, Camp Pendleton, the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains, and in and around Simi Valley. The majority of the smoke is coming from the fires near San Diego and the San Bernardino Mountains.The Multiangle Imaging Spectro Radiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82o north and 82o south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbit 20510. The panels cover an area of 329 kilometers x 543 kilometers, and utilize data from blocks 62 to 66 within World Reference System-2 path 40.MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  2. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes (United States)

    Gordon, David W.


    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  3. Hawaii's volcanoes revealed (United States)

    Eakins, Barry W.; Robinson, Joel E.; Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Naka, Jiro; Smith, John R.; Takahashi, Eiichi; Clague, David A.


    Hawaiian volcanoes typically evolve in four stages as volcanism waxes and wanes: (1) early alkalic, when volcanism originates on the deep sea floor; (2) shield, when roughly 95 percent of a volcano's volume is emplaced; (3) post-shield alkalic, when small-volume eruptions build scattered cones that thinly cap the shield-stage lavas; and (4) rejuvenated, when lavas of distinct chemistry erupt following a lengthy period of erosion and volcanic quiescence. During the early alkalic and shield stages, two or more elongate rift zones may develop as flanks of the volcano separate. Mantle-derived magma rises through a vertical conduit and is temporarily stored in a shallow summit reservoir from which magma may erupt within the summit region or be injected laterally into the rift zones. The ongoing activity at Kilauea's Pu?u ?O?o cone that began in January 1983 is one such rift-zone eruption. The rift zones commonly extend deep underwater, producing submarine eruptions of bulbous pillow lava. Once a volcano has grown above sea level, subaerial eruptions produce lava flows of jagged, clinkery ?a?a or smooth, ropy pahoehoe. If the flows reach the ocean they are rapidly quenched by seawater and shatter, producing a steep blanket of unstable volcanic sediment that mantles the upper submarine slopes. Above sea level then, the volcanoes develop the classic shield profile of gentle lava-flow slopes, whereas below sea level slopes are substantially steeper. While the volcanoes grow rapidly during the shield stage, they may also collapse catastrophically, generating giant landslides and tsunami, or fail more gradually, forming slumps. Deformation and seismicity along Kilauea's south flank indicate that slumping is occurring there today. Loading of the underlying Pacific Plate by the growing volcanic edifices causes subsidence, forming deep basins at the base of the volcanoes. Once volcanism wanes and lava flows no longer reach the ocean, the volcano continues to submerge, while

  4. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers. (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P


    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Rehabilitation and Cheatgrass Suppression Following Great Basin Wildfires (United States)

    The occurrence of wildfires in Great Basin environments has become an annual event. The introduction and subsequent invasion of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) plays a very large role in the frequency and size of these wildfires. With each passing wildfire season, more and more habitats are converted...

  6. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson


    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...

  7. The importance of considering external influences during presuppression wildfire planning (United States)

    Marc R. Wiitala; Andrew E. Wilson


    Few administrative units involved in wildland fire protection are islands unto themselves when it comes to wildfire activity and suppression. If not directly affected by the wildfire workload of their neighbors, they are affected by the availability of nationally shared resources impacted by wildfire activity at the regional and national scale. These external...

  8. The national wildfire prediction program: a key piece of the wildfire solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bossert, J E; Bradley, M M; Hanson, H P; Schomer, C L; Sumikawa, D A


    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed an initiative for a National Wildfire Prediction Program. The program provides guidance for fire managers throughout the country, assisting them to efficiently use limited fire-fighting resources. To achieve maximum cost leveraging, the program builds upon existing physics-based atmospheric and wildfire modeling efforts, a proven emergency response infrastructure, state-of-the-art computer science, and the world's most advanced supercomputers to create a comprehensive wildfire prediction system.

  9. Wildfire safety with wireless sensor networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Somov


    Full Text Available Nowadays, the Wireless Sensor Network (WSN paradigm is extensively used for the environmental monitoring including wildfires. Like other disasters, this phenomenon, if not detected early, may have grave consequences, e.g. a significant pecuniary loss, or even lead to human victims. This paper surveys the approaches to early wildfire detection using WSN facilities with a special focus on real deployments and hardware prototypes. In our work we propose not merely a description, but a classification of the fire detection methods which are divided into three groups: gas sensing, sensing of environmental parameters, and video monitoring. Then the methods are comparatively analyzed from the viewpoints of the cost, power consumption, and implementation complexity. Finally, we summarize our vision of the prospects of resolving the wildfire detection problem using WSNs.

  10. Public Health Impact of Wildfire Emissions: Up-date on the Wildfire Smoke Guide, Public Health Information and Communications Research (United States)

    EPA Tools and Resources Webinar: Public Health Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Specific strategies to reduce smoke exposure and the Smoke Sense App As the start of the summer wildfire season approaches, public officials, communities and individuals need up-to-date wildfire smo...

  11. Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy (United States)

    Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella


    We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

  12. Climate model calculations of the effects of volcanoes on global climate (United States)

    Robock, Alan


    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  13. Santa Maria Volcano, Guatemala (United States)


    The eruption of Santa Maria volcano in 1902 was one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century, forming a large crater on the mountain's southwest flank. Since 1922, a lava-dome complex, Santiaguito, has been forming in the 1902 crater. Growth of the dome has produced pyroclastic flows as recently as the 2001-they can be identified in this image. The city of Quezaltenango (approximately 90,000 people in 1989) sits below the 3772 m summit. The volcano is considered dangerous because of the possibility of a dome collapse such as one that occurred in 1929, which killed about 5000 people. A second hazard results from the flow of volcanic debris into rivers south of Santiaguito, which can lead to catastrophic flooding and mud flows. More information on this volcano can be found at web sites maintained by the Smithsonian Institution, Volcano World, and Michigan Tech University. ISS004-ESC-7999 was taken 17 February 2002 from the International Space Station using a digital camera. The image is provided by the Earth Sciences and Image Analysis Laboratory at Johnson Space Center. Searching and viewing of additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts is available at the NASA-JSC Gateway to

  14. Anatomy of a volcano

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassink, J.


    The Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused major disruption in European airspace last year. According to his co-author, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, the reconstruction published in Nature six months later by aerospace engineering researcher, Dr Andy Hooper, opens up a new direction in volcanology. “W

  15. Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes (United States)

    Ilyinskaya, Evgenia; Larsen, Gudrun; Gudmundsson, Magnus T.; Vogfjord, Kristin; Pagneux, Emmanuel; Oddsson, Bjorn; Barsotti, Sara; Karlsdottir, Sigrun


    The Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes is a newly developed open-access web resource in English intended to serve as an official source of information about active volcanoes in Iceland and their characteristics. The Catalogue forms a part of an integrated volcanic risk assessment project in Iceland GOSVÁ (commenced in 2012), as well as being part of the effort of FUTUREVOLC (2012-2016) on establishing an Icelandic volcano supersite. Volcanic activity in Iceland occurs on volcanic systems that usually comprise a central volcano and fissure swarm. Over 30 systems have been active during the Holocene (the time since the end of the last glaciation - approximately the last 11,500 years). In the last 50 years, over 20 eruptions have occurred in Iceland displaying very varied activity in terms of eruption styles, eruptive environments, eruptive products and the distribution lava and tephra. Although basaltic eruptions are most common, the majority of eruptions are explosive, not the least due to magma-water interaction in ice-covered volcanoes. Extensive research has taken place on Icelandic volcanism, and the results reported in numerous scientific papers and other publications. In 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) funded a 3 year project to collate the current state of knowledge and create a comprehensive catalogue readily available to decision makers, stakeholders and the general public. The work on the Catalogue began in 2011, and was then further supported by the Icelandic government and the EU through the FP7 project FUTUREVOLC. The Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes is a collaboration of the Icelandic Meteorological Office (the state volcano observatory), the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, and the Civil Protection Department of the National Commissioner of the Iceland Police, with contributions from a large number of specialists in Iceland and elsewhere. The Catalogue is built up of chapters with texts and various

  16. Analysis of climate and topographic effect on wildfire regime in Liguria, Italy (United States)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Degli Esposti, Silvia


    Wildfire risk is particularly significant in Italy, both in summer and winter season due to the high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of the territory. Liguria is one of the few regions in Italy affected by wildfires both in summer and winter. Most of the fires in Italy occur in summer season and the burned area is largely greater than in winter season. In Liguria, the number of wildfires and the burned area is higher in winter than in summer. Winter fire regime is mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north in condition of curing for most of the herbaceous species. Southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions. The availability of a mapping of fire perimeters spans almost 20 years (1996-2013), and this, combined with a detailed knowledge of topography, climate and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). Total precipitation and average air temperature obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 164 raingauges and 127 thermometers series were considered. The analysis was based on a recursive-quantiles subdivision of the territory in classes based on the different

  17. Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Sperry


    Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.

  18. Desertification and other ecological impacts produced by the historic Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire of 2000, Arizona, USA (United States)

    Neary, D.; Ffolliott, P.; Stropki, C.


    of water bars, wattles, k-rails, and aerial seeding and mulching of herbaceous plants to mitigate that anticipated accelerated post-fire soil erosion, began immediately after the fire was extinguished and it was declared safe for people to enter the burned area and initiate rehabilitation. An assessment of the impacts of the Rodeo-Chediski wildfire on soil erosion was carried out on two watersheds situated at the headwaters of the Little Colorado River. One of the watersheds experienced a high severity burn and the other a low-to-medium severity burn. Estimates of soil erosion on a watershed-basis and relative to physiographic characteristics on the two watersheds following the (a) high-intensity summer monsoonal rains and (2) low-intensity winter precipitation and spring snowmelt-runoff events are presented and compared with estimates of soil erosion following other wildfires in the region. Monitoring of soil erosion and other hydrologic and ecological parameters is continuing to obtain a longer, more comprehensive picture of the impacts of this catastrophic wildfire event. The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire altered the species composition and impacted the production of herbaceous plants on the burned watersheds studied. Effects of the post-fire vegetation changes reduced the capabilities of watersheds to support livestock and some of the other larger herbivores in the region. When these watersheds will return to pre-fire conditions is largely unknown. Not only must the forage resources be restored but the magnitude of post-fire soil erosion and accompanying nutrient losses must be mitigated. Post-fire rehabilitation efforts including the seeding of herbaceous species and installation of controls to reduce soil erosion and sedimentation processes have helped to accelerate this recovery to some extent. A much longer time will obviously be required for severely burned areas to recover than those areas burned by at a low severity. Portions of the latter have already returned

  19. Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests (United States)

    Ponomarev, Evgenii I.; Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.


    Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45deg-73degN) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measurements for the period 1996-2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI) along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) (r = 0.43). Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91). Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect. Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62 N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (6633' N), and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71+ N). That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.95). Keywords: wildfires; drought index; larch stands; fire return interval; fire frequency; burned area; climate-induced trends in Siberian wildfires

  20. Automated Wildfire Detection Through Artificial Neural Networks (United States)

    Miller, Jerry; Borne, Kirk; Thomas, Brian; Huang, Zhenping; Chi, Yuechen


    We have tested and deployed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) data mining techniques to analyze remotely sensed multi-channel imaging data from MODIS, GOES, and AVHRR. The goal is to train the ANN to learn the signatures of wildfires in remotely sensed data in order to automate the detection process. We train the ANN using the set of human-detected wildfires in the U.S., which are provided by the Hazard Mapping System (HMS) wildfire detection group at NOAA/NESDIS. The ANN is trained to mimic the behavior of fire detection algorithms and the subjective decision- making by N O M HMS Fire Analysts. We use a local extremum search in order to isolate fire pixels, and then we extract a 7x7 pixel array around that location in 3 spectral channels. The corresponding 147 pixel values are used to populate a 147-dimensional input vector that is fed into the ANN. The ANN accuracy is tested and overfitting is avoided by using a subset of the training data that is set aside as a test data set. We have achieved an automated fire detection accuracy of 80-92%, depending on a variety of ANN parameters and for different instrument channels among the 3 satellites. We believe that this system can be deployed worldwide or for any region to detect wildfires automatically in satellite imagery of those regions. These detections can ultimately be used to provide thermal inputs to climate models.

  1. Water repellency diminishes peatland evaporation after wildfire (United States)

    Kettridge, Nick; Lukenbach, Max; Hokanson, Kelly; Devito, Kevin; Hopkinson, Chris; Petrone, Rich; Mendoza, Carl; Waddington, Mike


    Peatlands are a critically important global carbon reserve. There is increasing concern that such ecosystems are vulnerable to projected increases in wildfire severity under a changing climate. Severe fires may exceed peatland ecological resilience resulting in the long term degradation of this carbon store. Evaporation provides the primary mechanisms of water loss from such environments and can regulate the ecological stress in the initial years after wildfire. We examine variations in evaporation within burned peatlands after wildfire through small scale chamber and large scale remote sensing measurements. We show that near-surface water repellency limits peatland evaporation in these initial years post fire. Water repellent peat produced by the fire restricts the supply of water to the surface, reducing evaporation and providing a strong negative feedback to disturbance. This previously unidentified feedback operates at the landscape scale. High surface temperatures that result from large reductions in evaporation within water repellent peat are observed across the 60,000 ha burn scar three months after the wildfire. This promotes high water table positions at a landscape scale which limit the rate of peat decomposition and supports the post fire ecohydrological recovery of the peatlands. However, severe burns are shown to exceed this negative feedback response. Deep burns at the peatland margins remove the hydrophobic layer, increasing post fire evaporation and leaving the peatland vulnerable to drying and associated ecological shifts.

  2. The estimation of territiry predeposition to wildfires (United States)

    Panchenko, Ekaterina; Dukarev, Anatoly


    Wildfires have significant environmental effects. The indirect damages because of fires are an emission of various combustion products such as aerosols, greenhouse gases and carcinogen. Analysis of smoke emission show that from 1 ha burning area emitted aerosols from 0.2 to 1 ton. The aim of our research is to estimate biomass burning emission: Biomass Burning Emission=BA x FL x CE x EF, where BA is Burned Area (ha); FL is forest litter cover (cm); CE is Combustion Efficiency (0-1), depends on a class of fire danger; EF is Emission Factor (kg emitted / kg dry-mass burnt). Consequently for estimation of biomass burning emission it is necessary to analyze of territory predisposition to wildfires and give characteristic of combustion material types for detection fire hazard, for prognosis fire origin and extension. Prognosis of occurrence of wildfires and definition of emissions is possible by means of data of depth forest litter, types of vegetation and type of landscapes including concrete weather conditions (seasons, length of arid period, current temperature, wind speed and its direction). The investigated object is the territory Tomskii district near to the city of Tomsk (56° 31 N-85°08 E) - with the population more than 500 thousand people. The conducted analysis of investigated territory and the calculation will be basic prognostic model for researching wildfires.

  3. Big sagebrush seed bank densities following wildfires (United States)

    Big sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) is a critical shrub to many wildlife species including sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis). Big sagebrush is killed by wildfires and big sagebrush seed is generally short-lived and do not s...

  4. Avoiding Wildfire Damage: A Checklist for Homeowners (United States)

    ... vegetation is fuel for a wildfire, though some trees and shrubs are more flammable than others. To reduce the ... the sides of the house. • Prune branches and shrubs within 15 feet of chimneys and stove pipes. • Remove tree limbs within 15 feet of the ground. • Thin ...

  5. Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution (United States)

    We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=10...

  6. Catalogue of Icelandic volcanoes (United States)

    Ilyinskaya, Evgenia; Larsen, Gudrun; Vogfjörd, Kristin; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnus; Jonsson, Trausti; Oddsson, Björn; Reynisson, Vidir; Barsotti, Sara; Karlsdottir, Sigrun


    Volcanic activity in Iceland occurs on volcanic systems that usually comprise a central volcano and fissure swarm. Over 30 systems have been active during the Holocene. In the last 100 years, over 30 eruptions have occurred displaying very varied activity in terms of eruption styles, eruptive environments, eruptive products and their distribution. Although basaltic eruptions are most common, the majority of eruptions are explosive, not the least due to magma-water interaction in ice-covered volcanoes. Extensive research has taken place on Icelandic volcanism, and the results reported in scientific papers and other publications. In 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organisation funded a 3 year project to collate the current state of knowledge and create a comprehensive catalogue readily available to decision makers, stakeholders and the general public. The work on the Catalogue began in 2011, and was then further supported by the Icelandic government and the EU. The Catalogue forms a part of an integrated volcanic risk assessment project in Iceland (commenced in 2012), and the EU FP7 project FUTUREVOLC (2012-2016), establishing an Icelandic volcano Supersite. The Catalogue is a collaborative effort between the Icelandic Meteorological Office (the state volcano observatory), the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, and the Icelandic Civil Protection, with contributions from a large number of specialists in Iceland and elsewhere. The catalogue is scheduled for opening in the first half of 2015 and once completed, it will be an official publication intended to serve as an accurate and up to date source of information about active volcanoes in Iceland and their characteristics. The Catalogue is an open web resource in English and is composed of individual chapters on each of the volcanic systems. The chapters include information on the geology and structure of the volcano; the eruption history, pattern and products; the known precursory signals

  7. Linking the runoff response at micro-plot and catchment scale following wildfire and terracing, north-central Portugal (United States)

    Martins, Martinho A. S.; Rial-Rivas, María E.; Machado, Ana I.; Serpa, Dalila; Prats, Sergio A.; Faria, Sílvia R.; Varela, María E. T.; González-Pelayo, Óscar; Keizer, J. Jacob


    Wildfires are known as one of the principal natural hazards affecting the Mediterranean region. This includes Portugal, where wildfires have affected some 100.000 ha of rural lands each year. The effects of wildfires on runoff generation and/or the associated soil (fertility) losses have been studied in Portugal for more than two decades. Some of these studies have reported strong and sometimes extreme hydrological responses in recently burnt areas. Forestry operations in such areas have increasingly come to include bench terracing in preparation of new eucalypt plantations. The hydrological impacts of bench terracing, however, have received little research attention so far and the few existing publications are limited to small spatial scales. The construction of terraces is commonly considered an effective practice for soil conservation on steep slopes, having been applied by mankind since early history. Nonetheless, the present authors have measured high rates of splash as well as inter-rill erosion on recently constructed terraces, and have regularly observed rill formation, including on forest tracks which typically constitute an extensive network in such bench terraced plantations. The present study was carried out in a 29-ha forest catchment in north-central Portugal that was burnt by a wildfire during the summer of 2010, logged during early winter 2010/11, and then bench terraced with bulldozers during late winter 2011, some 6 months after the wildfire. The catchment outlet was instrumented immediately after the fire with an automatic hydrometric station comprising two subsequent flumes with maximum discharge capacities of 120 and 1700 l sec-1. Within the catchment, rainfall was measured using several automatic and storage gauges and overland flow was monitored on two contrasting slopes using 3 micro-plots of approximately 0.25m2 on each slope.Overland flow was measured at 1- to 2-weekly intervals during the hydrological years of 2010/11 and 2011/12, i

  8. Volcano-hazard zonation for San Vicente volcano, El Salvador (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; Escobar, C.D.; Howell, M.M.


    San Vicente volcano, also known as Chichontepec, is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador. This composite volcano, located about 50 kilometers east of the capital city San Salvador, has a volume of about 130 cubic kilometers, rises to an altitude of about 2180 meters, and towers above major communities such as San Vicente, Tepetitan, Guadalupe, Zacatecoluca, and Tecoluca. In addition to the larger communities that surround the volcano, several smaller communities and coffee plantations are located on or around the flanks of the volcano, and major transportation routes are located near the lowermost southern and eastern flanks of the volcano. The population density and proximity around San Vicente volcano, as well as the proximity of major transportation routes, increase the risk that even small landslides or eruptions, likely to occur again, can have serious societal consequences. The eruptive history of San Vicente volcano is not well known, and there is no definitive record of historical eruptive activity. The last significant eruption occurred more than 1700 years ago, and perhaps long before permanent human habitation of the area. Nevertheless, this volcano has a very long history of repeated, and sometimes violent, eruptions, and at least once a large section of the volcano collapsed in a massive landslide. The oldest rocks associated with a volcanic center at San Vicente are more than 2 million years old. The volcano is composed of remnants of multiple eruptive centers that have migrated roughly eastward with time. Future eruptions of this volcano will pose substantial risk to surrounding communities.

  9. Bedload exports in a forest catchment following wildfire and terracing, north-central Portugal (United States)

    Martins, Martinho A. S.; Machado, Ana I.; Serpa, Dalila; Prats, Sergio A.; Faria, Sílvia R.; Varela, María E. T.; González-Pelayo, Óscar; Keizer, J. Jacob


    In Portugal, the occurrences of wildfires are frequently, on average, affects some 100.000 ha of rural lands each year, but in extreme years such as 2003 and 2005 the burnt areas can go over 300.000 ha. Studies in various parts of the world, including Portugal, have well-documented a strong and sometimes extreme response in overland flow generation and associated soil losses following wildfire. Over the last two decades, the construction of terraces in preparation of a new eucalypt plantation has become increasingly common in the mountain areas of north-central Portugal, including in recently burnt areas. Terraces are traditionally viewed as a soil conservation technique, however, the present authors have measured high splash and inter-rill erosion on recent terraces and have frequently observed gully formation connecting the terraces over the full hill slope length, as well as within the adjacent unsealed roads. The present study was carried out in a forest catchment in the north-central Portugal that was burnt by a wildfire during the summer of 2010 and logged and then terraced with a bulldozer during the winter 2010. The burnt catchment of roughly 25 ha was instrumented with two subsequent flumes with maximum discharge capacities of 120 and 1700 l sec-1. The bed load that deposited in the smallest flume was removed and weighted in the field at regular intervals during the subsequent three years. The records are being now analyzed, nonetheless preliminary results suggested that, besides the wildfire effects, also post-fire land management played an important role on bedload exports.

  10. Geology of Kilauea volcano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, R.B. (Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States). Federal Center); Trusdell, F.A. (Geological Survey, Hawaii National Park, HI (United States). Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)


    This paper summarizes studies of the structure, stratigraphy, petrology, drill holes, eruption frequency, and volcanic and seismic hazards of Kilauea volcano. All the volcano is discussed, but the focus is on its lower east rift zone (LERZ) because active exploration for geothermal energy is concentrated in that area. Kilauea probably has several separate hydrothermal-convection systems that develop in response to the dynamic behavior of the volcano and the influx of abundant meteoric water. Important features of some of these hydrothermal-convection systems are known through studies of surface geology and drill holes. Observations of eruptions during the past two centuries, detailed geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating, and paleomagnetic secular-variation studies indicate that Kilauea has erupted frequently from its summit and two radial rift zones during Quaternary time. Petrologic studies have established that Kilauea erupts only tholeiitic basalt. Extensive ash deposits at Kilauea's summit and on its LERZ record locally violent, but temporary, disruptions of local hydrothermal-convection systems during the interaction of water or steam with magma. Recent drill holes on the LERZ provide data on the temperatures of the hydrothermal-convection systems, intensity of dike intrusion, porosity and permeability, and an increasing amount of hydrothermal alteration with depth. The prehistoric and historic record of volcanic and seismic activity indicates that magma will continue to be supplied to deep and shallow reservoirs beneath Kilauea's summit and rift zones and that the volcano will be affected by eruptions and earthquakes for many thousands of years. 71 refs., 2 figs.

  11. 4D volcano gravimetry (United States)

    Battaglia, Maurizio; Gottsmann, J.; Carbone, D.; Fernandez, J.


    Time-dependent gravimetric measurements can detect subsurface processes long before magma flow leads to earthquakes or other eruption precursors. The ability of gravity measurements to detect subsurface mass flow is greatly enhanced if gravity measurements are analyzed and modeled with ground-deformation data. Obtaining the maximum information from microgravity studies requires careful evaluation of the layout of network benchmarks, the gravity environmental signal, and the coupling between gravity changes and crustal deformation. When changes in the system under study are fast (hours to weeks), as in hydrothermal systems and restless volcanoes, continuous gravity observations at selected sites can help to capture many details of the dynamics of the intrusive sources. Despite the instrumental effects, mainly caused by atmospheric temperature, results from monitoring at Mt. Etna volcano show that continuous measurements are a powerful tool for monitoring and studying volcanoes.Several analytical and numerical mathematical models can beused to fit gravity and deformation data. Analytical models offer a closed-form description of the volcanic source. In principle, this allows one to readily infer the relative importance of the source parameters. In active volcanic sites such as Long Valley caldera (California, U.S.A.) and Campi Flegrei (Italy), careful use of analytical models and high-quality data sets has produced good results. However, the simplifications that make analytical models tractable might result in misleading volcanological inter-pretations, particularly when the real crust surrounding the source is far from the homogeneous/ isotropic assumption. Using numerical models allows consideration of more realistic descriptions of the sources and of the crust where they are located (e.g., vertical and lateral mechanical discontinuities, complex source geometries, and topography). Applications at Teide volcano (Tenerife) and Campi Flegrei demonstrate the

  12. Wildfires, mountain pine beetle and large-scale climate in Northern North America. (United States)

    Macias Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.


    Research on the interactions between biosphere and atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere dynamics, concretely on the coupling between ecological processes and large-scale climate, is presented in two studies in Northern North America: the occurrence of large lightning wildfires and the forest area affected by mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, MPB). In both cases, large-scale climatic patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) operate as low and low and high frequency frameworks, respectively, that control the occurrence, duration and spatial correlation over large areas of key local weather variables which affect specific ecological processes. Warm PDO phases tend to produce persistent (more than 10 days long) positive mid-troposphere anomalies (blocking highs) over western Canada and Alaska. Likewise, positive (negative) AO configurations increase the frequency of blocking highs at mid (high) latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Under these conditions, lack of precipitation and prevailing warm air meridional flow rapidly dry fuel over large areas and increase fire hazard. The spatiotemporal patterns of occurrence of large lightning wildfire in Canada and Alaska for 1959-1999 were largely explained by the action and possible interaction of AO and PDO, the AO being more influential over Eastern Canada, the PDO over Western Canada and Alaska. Changes in the dynamics of the PDO are linked to the occurrence of cold winter temperatures in British Columbia (BC), Western Canada. Reduced frequency of cold events during warm PDO winters is consistent with a northward-displaced polar jet stream inhibiting the outflow of cold Arctic air over BC. Likewise, the AO influences the occurrence of winter cold spells in the area. PDO, and to a lesser degree AO, were strongly related to MPB synchrony in BC during 1959-2002, operating through the control of the frequency of extreme cold winter temperatures that affect MPB larvae

  13. Pairing the Volcano

    CERN Document Server

    Ionica, Sorina


    Isogeny volcanoes are graphs whose vertices are elliptic curves and whose edges are $\\ell$-isogenies. Algorithms allowing to travel on these graphs were developed by Kohel in his thesis (1996) and later on, by Fouquet and Morain (2001). However, up to now, no method was known, to predict, before taking a step on the volcano, the direction of this step. Hence, in Kohel's and Fouquet-Morain algorithms, many steps are taken before choosing the right direction. In particular, ascending or horizontal isogenies are usually found using a trial-and-error approach. In this paper, we propose an alternative method that efficiently finds all points $P$ of order $\\ell$ such that the subgroup generated by $P$ is the kernel of an horizontal or an ascending isogeny. In many cases, our method is faster than previous methods. This is an extended version of a paper published in the proceedings of ANTS 2010. In addition, we treat the case of 2-isogeny volcanoes and we derive from the group structure of the curve and the pairing ...

  14. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing. (United States)

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra


    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig


    possibilities exist for reducing seasonal variation in employment? In addition to a literature review related to winter construction, European and national employment and meteorological data were studied. Finally, ministerial acts, ministerial orders or other public policy documents related to winter...

  16. Winter Weather Emergencies (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  17. Active Volcano Monitoring using a Space-based Hyperspectral Imager (United States)

    Cipar, J. J.; Dunn, R.; Cooley, T.


    Active volcanoes occur on every continent, often in close proximity to heavily populated areas. While ground-based studies are essential for scientific research and disaster mitigation, remote sensing from space can provide rapid and continuous monitoring of active and potentially active volcanoes [Ramsey and Flynn, 2004]. In this paper, we report on hyperspectral measurements of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. Hyperspectral images obtained by the US Air Force TacSat-3/ARTEMIS sensor [Lockwood et al, 2006] are used to obtain estimates of the surface temperatures for the volcano. ARTEMIS measures surface-reflected light in the visible, near-infrared, and short-wave infrared bands (VNIR-SWIR). The SWIR bands are known to be sensitive to thermal radiation [Green, 1996]. For example, images from the NASA Hyperion hyperspectral sensor have shown the extent of wildfires and active volcanoes [Young, 2009]. We employ the methodology described by Dennison et al, (2006) to obtain an estimate of the temperature of the active region of Kilauea. Both day and night-time images were used in the analysis. To improve the estimate, we aggregated neighboring pixels. The active rim of the lava lake is clearly discernable in the temperature image, with a measured temperature exceeding 1100o C. The temperature decreases markedly on the exterior of the summit crater. While a long-wave infrared (LWIR) sensor would be ideal for volcano monitoring, we have shown that the thermal state of an active volcano can be monitored using the SWIR channels of a reflective hyperspectral imager. References: Dennison, Philip E., Kraivut Charoensiri, Dar A. Roberts, Seth H. Peterson, and Robert O. Green (2006). Wildfire temperature and land cover modeling using hyperspectral data, Remote Sens. Environ., vol. 100, pp. 212-222. Green, R. O. (1996). Estimation of biomass fire temperature and areal extent from calibrated AVIRIS spectra, in Summaries of the 6th Annual JPL Airborne Earth Science Workshop, Pasadena, CA

  18. Wildfire Prediction to Inform Fire Management: Statistical Science Challenges


    Taylor, S. W.; Douglas G. Woolford; Dean, C. B.; Martell, David L.


    Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of fire processes and to inform fire and land management decision-making. Statistical methods have an important role in wildfire prediction due to the inherent stochastic nature of fire phenomena at all scales. ¶ Predictive models have exploited several so...

  19. 2007 San Diego wildfires and asthmatics. (United States)

    Vora, Chirag; Renvall, Marian J; Chao, Peter; Ferguson, Paul; Ramsdell, Joe W


    This case series reports the changes in the respiratory health of eight asthmatic subjects and the relationship with air quality associated with the October 2007 firestorm in San Diego County of California. Participants were eight subjects with asthma enrolled in Asthma Clinical Research Network (ACRN) (NIH# U10-HL074218) studies at the University of California San Diego (UCSD), School of Medicine, who had study data collected immediately prior, during and 1 month after the 5-day firestorm in San Diego County. Air quality deteriorated to an extreme average of 71.5 mg/m(3) small particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM(2.5)) during the firestorm. Respiratory health data included morning and evening peak expiratory flow rates (PEFR), morning and evening Forced Expiratory Volume in one second (FEV(1)), rescue medication usage, and sputum eosinophils. Morning and evening PEFR and FEV(1) rates remained stable. The two subjects tested during the fires had elevated eosinophil counts and rescue medication usage was increased in five of the eight subjects. Pulmonary function test values were stable during the wildfires for all eight subjects but there was a statistically significant increase in rescue medication usage during the wildfires that correlated with PM(2.5) values. The two subjects tested during the fires showed increases in sputum eosinophil counts consistent with increased airways inflammation. These findings suggest that poor air quality associated with wildfires resulted in an increase in airways inflammation in these asthmatic subjects, but pulmonary function tests remained stable, possibly due to increased rescue medication usage. This is especially pertinent as there is an increase in incidence of wildfires this decade.

  20. Italian Volcano Supersites (United States)

    Puglisi, G.


    Volcanic eruptions are among the geohazards that may have a substantial economic and social impact, even at worldwide scale. Large populated regions are prone to volcanic hazards worldwide. Even local phenomena may affect largely populated areas and in some cases even megacities, producing severe economic losses. On a regional or global perspective, large volcanic eruptions may affect the climate for years with potentially huge economic impacts, but even relatively small eruptions may inject large amounts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere and severely affect air traffic over entire continents. One of main challenges of the volcanological community is to continuously monitor and understand the internal processes leading to an eruption, in order to give substantial contributions to the risk reduction. Italian active volcanoes constitute natural laboratories and ideal sites where to apply the cutting-edge volcano observation systems, implement new monitoring systems and to test and improve the most advanced models and methods for investigate the volcanic processes. That's because of the long tradition of volcanological studies resulting into long-term data sets, both in-situ and from satellite systems, among the most complete and accurate worldwide, and the large spectrum of the threatening volcanic phenomena producing high local/regional/continental risks. This contribution aims at presenting the compound monitoring systems operating on the Italian active volcanoes, the main improvements achieved during the recent studies direct toward volcanic hazard forecast and risk reductions and the guidelines for a wide coordinated project aimed at applying the ideas of the GEO Supersites Initiative at Mt. Etna and Campi Flegrei / Vesuvius areas.

  1. Ruiz Volcano: Preliminary report (United States)

    Ruiz Volcano, Colombia (4.88°N, 75.32°W). All times are local (= GMT -5 hours).An explosive eruption on November 13, 1985, melted ice and snow in the summit area, generating lahars that flowed tens of kilometers down flank river valleys, killing more than 20,000 people. This is history's fourth largest single-eruption death toll, behind only Tambora in 1815 (92,000), Krakatau in 1883 (36,000), and Mount Pelée in May 1902 (28,000). The following briefly summarizes the very preliminary and inevitably conflicting information that had been received by press time.

  2. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Iliamna Volcano, Alaska (United States)

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Miller, Thomas P.


    Iliamna Volcano is a 3,053-meter-high, ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano in the southwestern Cook Inlet region about 225 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and about 100 kilometers northwest of Homer. Historical eruptions of Iliamna Volcano have not been positively documented; however, the volcano regularly emits steam and gas, and small, shallow earthquakes are often detected beneath the summit area. The most recent eruptions of the volcano occurred about 300 years ago, and possibly as recently as 90-140 years ago. Prehistoric eruptions have generated plumes of volcanic ash, pyroclastic flows, and lahars that extended to the volcano flanks and beyond. Rock avalanches from the summit area have occurred numerous times in the past. These avalanches flowed several kilometers down the flanks and at least two large avalanches transformed to cohesive lahars. The number and distribution of known volcanic ash deposits from Iliamna Volcano indicate that volcanic ash clouds from prehistoric eruptions were significantly less voluminous and probably less common relative to ash clouds generated by eruptions of other Cook Inlet volcanoes. Plumes of volcanic ash from Iliamna Volcano would be a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International Airport and other local airports, and depending on wind direction, could drift at least as far as the Kenai Peninsula and beyond. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Because Iliamna Volcano has not erupted for several hundred years, a future eruption could involve significant amounts of ice and snow that could lead to the formation of large lahars and downstream flooding. The greatest hazards in order of importance are described below and shown on plate 1.

  3. Differential recovery of water quality parameters eight years after severe wildfire and salvage logging in Alberta's southern Rocky Mountains (United States)

    Silins, U.; Bladon, K. D.; Stone, M.; Emelko, M. B.; Collins, A.; Boon, S.; Williams, C.; Wagner, M. J.; Martens, A. M.; Anderson, A.


    Broad regions of western North America rely on water supplies that originate from forested regions of the Rocky Mountain cordillera where landuse pressures, and stresses including changing natural disturbance regimes associated with shifting climates has been impacting critical source water supplies from this region. Increases in magnitude and severity of wildfires along with impacts on downstream water supplies has been observed along the length of the North American Rocky Mountain chain, however, the longevity of these impacts (including impacts to important water quality parameters) remain highly uncertain because processes regulating recovery from such disturbances can span a range of timescales from a few years to decades depending on both the hydro-climatic regime, and which water quality parameters are important. Studies document such long-term changes are few. The Southern Rockies Watershed Project (SRWP) was established to document the magnitude and recovery from the severe 2003 Lost Creek wildfire in the Crowsnest Pass region of southwest Alberta, Canada. Hydrology, water quality (physical & chemical) have been studies in 9 instrumented catchments (4-14 km2) encompassing burned, burned and salvage logged, prescribed burned, and unburned (reference) conditions since late winter 2004. While most important water quality parameters were strongly elevated in burned and burned-salvage logged catchments after the fire, strongly differential rates of recovery were observed for contaminant concentration, export, and yield across a range of water quality parameters (2004-2011). For example, while various nitrogen (N) species (total nitrogen, dissolved nitrogen, NO3-, NH4+) showed 2-7 fold increases in concentration the first 1-2 years after the wildfire, N recovered back to baseline concentrations 4-5 years after the wildfire. In contrast, eight full years after the wildfire (2011), no recovery of sediment or phosphorus (P) production (soluble reactive, total

  4. Elementary analysis of data from Tianchi Volcano

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Guo-ming; ZHANG Heng-rong; KONG Qing-jun; WU Cheng-zhi; GUO Feng; ZHANG Chao-fan


    Tianchi Volcano is the largest potential erupticve volcano in China. Analyzing these data on seismic monitoring, deformation observation and water chemistry investigation gained from the Tianchi Volcano Observatory (TVO), the authors consider that the Tianchi Volcano is in going into a new flourishing time.

  5. Design of a probabilistic wildfire alert system for Chile (United States)

    Crawford, Ben; Dacre, Helen; Lopez Saldana, Gerardo; Charlton-Perez, Andrew


    During the past 50 years over 200,000 wildfires have burned nearly 2.3 million hectares in Chile, leading to significant economic consequences. To improve wildfire warning capabilities, statistical models have been developed by the University of Chile for 15 different geographic regions of the country to quantify wildfire risk based on a set of specific meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, accumulated precipitation, and time of year). Currently, the warning system uses data input from ground-based weather stations and alerts are issued one day ahead. This project improves upon the current system by using variables from ensemble weather prediction datasets (TIGGE archive from ECMWF) as input to the wildfire risk model. This allows development of a probabilistic alert system that takes into account uncertainties in the specific meteorological forecast variables used in the wildfire risk model. This also allows the wildfire risk index to be calculated up to seven days ahead. The integration of the statistical wildfire risk model with the ensemble weather prediction system provides additional information about uncertainty to improve resource allocation decisions. The new system is evaluated using MODIS satellite wildfire detection datasets from 2008-2015 for each of the 15 geographic wildfire risk regions. The prototype alert system is then compared to alerts made using forecast variables from the operational ensemble weather prediction system used by the Chilean Meteorological Service. Finally, a novel method to update the wildfire risk statistical model parameters in real time based on observed spatial and temporal wildfire patterns will be presented.

  6. Winters fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter`s pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter`s, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year`s STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories.

  7. Mount Rainier active cascade volcano (United States)


    Mount Rainier is one of about two dozen active or recently active volcanoes in the Cascade Range, an arc of volcanoes in the northwestern United States and Canada. The volcano is located about 35 kilometers southeast of the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area, which has a population of more than 2.5 million. This metropolitan area is the high technology industrial center of the Pacific Northwest and one of the commercial aircraft manufacturing centers of the United States. The rivers draining the volcano empty into Puget Sound, which has two major shipping ports, and into the Columbia River, a major shipping lane and home to approximately a million people in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. Mount Rainier is an active volcano. It last erupted approximately 150 years ago, and numerous large floods and debris flows have been generated on its slopes during this century. More than 100,000 people live on the extensive mudflow deposits that have filled the rivers and valleys draining the volcano during the past 10,000 years. A major volcanic eruption or debris flow could kill thousands of residents and cripple the economy of the Pacific Northwest. Despite the potential for such danger, Mount Rainier has received little study. Most of the geologic work on Mount Rainier was done more than two decades ago. Fundamental topics such as the development, history, and stability of the volcano are poorly understood.

  8. Mount Rainier active cascade volcano (United States)

    Mount Rainier is one of about two dozen active or recently active volcanoes in the Cascade Range, an arc of volcanoes in the northwestern United States and Canada. The volcano is located about 35 kilometers southeast of the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area, which has a population of more than 2.5 million. This metropolitan area is the high technology industrial center of the Pacific Northwest and one of the commercial aircraft manufacturing centers of the United States. The rivers draining the volcano empty into Puget Sound, which has two major shipping ports, and into the Columbia River, a major shipping lane and home to approximately a million people in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. Mount Rainier is an active volcano. It last erupted approximately 150 years ago, and numerous large floods and debris flows have been generated on its slopes during this century. More than 100,000 people live on the extensive mudflow deposits that have filled the rivers and valleys draining the volcano during the past 10,000 years. A major volcanic eruption or debris flow could kill thousands of residents and cripple the economy of the Pacific Northwest. Despite the potential for such danger, Mount Rainier has received little study. Most of the geologic work on Mount Rainier was done more than two decades ago. Fundamental topics such as the development, history, and stability of the volcano are poorly understood.

  9. Soufriere Hills Volcano (United States)


    In this ASTER image of Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat in the Caribbean, continued eruptive activity is evident by the extensive smoke and ash plume streaming towards the west-southwest. Significant eruptive activity began in 1995, forcing the authorities to evacuate more than 7,000 of the island's original population of 11,000. The primary risk now is to the northern part of the island and to the airport. Small rockfalls and pyroclastic flows (ash, rock and hot gases) are common at this time due to continued growth of the dome at the volcano's summit.This image was acquired on October 29, 2002 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance.Dr. Anne Kahle at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, is the U.S. Science team leader; Bjorn Eng of JPL is the project manager. The Terra mission is part of NASA

  10. 43 CFR 4.416 - Appeals of wildfire management decisions. (United States)


    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Appeals of wildfire management decisions... Board of Land Appeals § 4.416 Appeals of wildfire management decisions. The Board must decide appeals from decisions under § 4190.1 and § 5003.1(b) of this title within 60 days after all pleadings have...

  11. Wildfire Restoration and Rehabilitation: Triage in Pursuit of Resilience (United States)

    This paper reports on the synthesis of "Wildfire Rehabilitation and Restoration" workshop that was part of a larger conference-workshop "Wildfires and Invasive Plants in American Deserts" sponsored by the Society for Range Management in Reno, Nevada in December 2008. The workshop started out with i...

  12. Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA (United States)

    Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith


    Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...

  13. Effects of wildfire on soil nutrients in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caon, L.; Vallejo, V.R.; Ritsema, C.J.; Geissen, V.


    High-intensity and fast-spreading wildfires are natural in the Mediterranean basin. However, since 1960, wildfire occurrence has increased because of changes in land use, which resulted in extensive land abandonment, increases in the fuel load and continuity in the landscape. The level of soil degra

  14. Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns (United States)

    Amanda S. Hering; Cynthia L. Bell; Marc G. Genton


    We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based on an inhomogeneous K-...

  15. Suppression cost forecasts in advance of wildfire seasons (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen Abt; Krista Gebert


    Approaches for forecasting wildfire suppression costs in advance of a wildfire season are demonstrated for two lead times: fall and spring of the current fiscal year (Oct. 1–Sept. 30). Model functional forms are derived from aggregate expressions of a least cost plus net value change model. Empirical estimates of these models are used to generate advance-of-season...

  16. Non-Accidental Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke (United States)

    Youssouf, Hassani; Liousse, Catherine; Roblou, Laurent; Assamoi, Eric-Michel; Salonen, Raimo O.; Maesano, Cara; Banerjee, Soutrik; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella


    Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5)) and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure. PMID:25405597

  17. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher


    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

  18. Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.


    Founded in 1912 at the edge of the caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, HVO was the vision of Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., a geologist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, whose studies of natural disasters around the world had convinced him that systematic, continuous observations of seismic and volcanic activity were needed to better understand—and potentially predict—earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Jaggar summarized the aim of HVO by stating that “the work should be humanitarian” and have the goals of developing “prediction and methods of protecting life and property on the basis of sound scientific achievement.” These goals align well with those of the USGS, whose mission is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage natural resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.


    This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

  20. Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.


    Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

  1. Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests



    Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45°–73° N) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measurements for the period 1996–2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI) along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires a...

  2. Volcanoes in Eruption - Set 1 (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The word volcano is used to refer to the opening from which molten rock and gas issue from Earth's interior onto the surface, and also to the cone, hill, or mountain...

  3. Volcanoes in Eruption - Set 2 (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The word volcano is used to refer to the opening from which molten rock and gas issue from Earth's interior onto the surface, and also to the cone, hill, or mountain...

  4. USGS Volcano Notification Service (VNS) (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Website provides a subscription service to receive an email when changes occur in the activity levels for monitored U.S. volcanoes and/or when information releases...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Manevich


    Full Text Available The paper presents main glaciological characteristics of present-day glaciers located on the Koryaksky volcano. The results of fieldwork (2008–2009 and high-resolution satellite image analysis let us to specify and complete information on modern glacial complex of Koryaksky volcano. Now there are seven glaciers with total area 8.36 km2. Three of them advance, two are in stationary state and one degrades. Moreover, the paper describes the new crater glacier.

  6. Mahukona: The missing Hawaiian volcano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, M.O.; Muenow, D.W. (Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu (USA)); Kurz, M.D. (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MA (USA))


    New bathymetric and geochemical data indicate that a seamount west of the island of Hawaii, Mahukona, is a Hawaiian shield volcano. Mahukona has weakly alkalic lavas that are geochemically distinct. They have high {sup 3}He/{sup 4}He ratios (12-21 times atmosphere), and high H{sub 2}O and Cl contents, which are indicative of the early state of development of Hawaiian volcanoes. The He and Sr isotopic values for Mahukona lavas are intermediate between those for lavas from Loihi and Manuna Loa volcanoes and may be indicative of a temporal evolution of Hawaiian magmas. Mahukona volcano became extinct at about 500 ka, perhaps before reaching sea level. It fills the previously assumed gap in the parallel chains of volcanoes forming the southern segment of the Hawaiian hotspot chain. The paired sequence of volcanoes was probably caused by the bifurcation of the Hawaiian mantle plume during its ascent, creating two primary areas of melting 30 to 40 km apart that have persisted for at least the past 4 m.y.

  7. Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenii I. Ponomarev


    Full Text Available Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45°–73° N were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and field measurements for the period 1996–2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05. Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5 and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI (r = −0.43. Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91. Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect.  Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62° N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (66°33’ N, and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71°+ N. That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = −0.95.

  8. Wildfire disasters: implications for rural nurses. (United States)

    Kulig, Judith C; Edge, Dana; Smolenski, Stephanie


    As natural disasters are increasing globally, nursing's role in responding to disasters is evolving. Disaster nursing has emerged as a specialty that focuses on the care of groups and communities during disaster response. The role of rural nurses in disasters is less well defined. A review of peer-reviewed literature combined with the International Council of Nurses framework of Disaster Nursing Competencies was conducted to understand the roles and functions of nurses in rural areas that experience disasters. The authors' findings from investigating the effects of four wildfires in rural Canadian communities are also discussed. Six major themes derived from our wildfire studies were generated within the context of nursing practice and are useful in the preparation of rural nurses involved in disaster management and recovery. This adds to the current literature which by and large has not addressed nursing in rural catastrophes. Well-prepared and educated rural nurses who combine theoretical knowledge with their understanding of a rural community potentially can reduce the impact of a disaster. Other nursing roles include mentoring nursing students in disaster preparation and assisting in initiatives to address community recovery in the aftermath of a disaster. Copyright © 2014 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District. (United States)

    Albertson, Kevin; Aylen, Jonathan; Cavan, Gina; McMorrow, Julia


    Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Current and past rainfall damp fire risk. The likelihood of fire increases with maximum temperature. Dry spells or recent fire activity also signal extra fire hazard. Certain days are fire prone due to visitors and some months of the year are more risky reflecting the changing flammability of moorland vegetation. The model back-predicts earlier fires during a hot dry summer. The impact of climate change on fire incidence is not straightforward. Risks may be reduced if wetter winters and earlier onset of spring add to plant moisture content. Yet a warm spring increases biomass and potential fuel load in summer. Climate change may cause the timing of moorland wildfires to shift from a damper and more verdant spring to drought-stressed summer.

  10. Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey is a nationwide effort to survey waterfowl in areas of major concentration on their wintering grounds and provide winter distribution...

  11. "Mediterranean volcanoes vs. chain volcanoes in the Carpathians" (United States)

    Chivarean, Radu


    Volcanoes have always represent an attractive subject for students. Europe has a small number of volcanoes and Romania has none active ones. The curricula is poor in the study of volcanoes. We want to make a parallel between the Mediterranean active volcanoes and the old extinct ones in the Oriental Carpathians. We made an comparison of the two regions in what concerns their genesis, space and time distribution, the specific relief and the impact in the landscape, consequences of their activities, etc… The most of the Mediterranean volcanoes are in Italy, in the peninsula in Napoli's area - Vezuviu, Campi Flegrei, Puzzoli, volcanic islands in Tirenian Sea - Ischia, Aeolian Islands, Sicily - Etna and Pantelleria Island. Santorini is located in Aegean Sea - Greece. Between Sicily and Tunisia there are 13 underwater volcanoes. The island called Vulcano, it has an active volcano, and it is the origin of the word. Every volcano in the world is named after this island, just north of Sicily. Vulcano is the southernmost of the 7 main Aeolian Islands, all volcanic in origin, which together form a small island arc. The cause of the volcanoes appears to be a combination of an old subduction event and tectonic fault lines. They can be considered as the origin of the science of volcanology. The volcanism of the Carpathian region is part of the extensive volcanic activity in the Mediterranean and surrounding regions. The Carpathian Neogene/Quaternary volcanic arc is naturally subdivided into six geographically distinct segments: Oas, Gutai, Tibles, Calimani, Gurghiu and Harghita. It is located roughly between the Carpathian thrust-and-fold arc to the east and the Transylvanian Basin to the west. It formed as a result of the convergence between two plate fragments, the Transylvanian micro-plate and the Eurasian plate. Volcanic edifices are typical medium-sized andesitic composite volcanoes, some of them attaining the caldera stage, complicated by submittal or peripheral domes

  12. Avoiding Winter Nose Bleeds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    WINTER is the best season for peopleto do cold-endurance exercises. But thedry, windy weather makes the moisturein the nasal mucosa evaporate quickly,reducing the elasticity of capillaries andmaking for frequent nose-bleeds.

  13. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  14. Deer Wintering Areas (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  15. Mud Volcanoes Formation And Occurrence (United States)

    Guliyev, I. S.


    Mud volcanoes are natural phenomena, which occur throughout the globe. They are found at a greater or lesser scale in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, on the Kerch and Taman peninsulas, on Sakhalin Island, in West Kuban, Italy, Romania, Iran, Pakistan, India, Burma, China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Mexico, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela and Ecuador. Mud volcanoes are most well-developed in Eastern Azerbaijan, where more than 30% of all the volcanoes in the world are concentrated. More than 300 mud volcanoes have already been recognized here onshore or offshore, 220 of which lie within an area of 16,000 km2. Many of these mud volcanoes are particularly large (up to 400 m high). The volcanoes of the South Caspian form permanent or temporary islands, and numerous submarine banks. Many hypotheses have been developed regarding the origin of mud volcanoes. Some of those hypotheses will be examined in the present paper. Model of spontaneous excitation-decompaction (proposed by Ivanov and Guliev, 1988, 2002). It is supposed that one of major factors of the movement of sedimentary masses and formation of hydrocarbon deposits are phase transitions in sedimentary basin. At phase transitions there are abnormal changes of physical and chemical parameters of rocks. Abnormal (high and negative) pressure takes place. This process is called as excitation of the underground environment with periodicity from several tens to several hundreds, or thousand years. The relationship between mud volcanism and the generation of hydrocarbons, particularly methane, is considered to be a critical factor in mud volcano formation. At high flow rates the gas and sediment develops into a pseudo-liquid state and as flow increases the mass reaches the "so-called hover velocity" where mass transport begins. The mass of fluid moves as a quasi-uniform viscous mass through the sediment pile in a piston like manner until expelled from the surface as a "catastrophic eruption

  16. Nutrition for winter sports. (United States)

    Meyer, Nanna L; Manore, Melinda M; Helle, Christine


    Winter sports are played in cold conditions on ice or snow and often at moderate to high altitude. The most important nutritional challenges for winter sport athletes exposed to environmental extremes include increased energy expenditure, accelerated muscle and liver glycogen utilization, exacerbated fluid loss, and increased iron turnover. Winter sports, however, vary greatly regarding their nutritional requirements due to variable physiological and physique characteristics, energy and substrate demands, and environmental training and competition conditions. What most winter sport athletes have in common is a relatively lean physique and high-intensity training periods, thus they require greater energy and nutrient intakes, along with adequate food and fluid before, during, and after training. Event fuelling is most challenging for cross-country skiers competing in long events, ski jumpers aiming to reduce their body weight, and those winter sport athletes incurring repeated qualification rounds and heats. These athletes need to ensure carbohydrate availability throughout competition. Finally, winter sport athletes may benefit from dietary and sport supplements; however, attention should be paid to safety and efficacy if supplementation is considered.

  17. Global Volcano Model (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.


    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  18. Airborne Wide Area Imager for Wildfire Mapping and Detection Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An advanced airborne imaging system for fire detection/mapping is proposed. The goal of the project is to improve control and management of wildfires in order to...

  19. Wildfire: distributed, Grid-enabled workflow construction and execution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issac Praveen


    Full Text Available Abstract Background We observe two trends in bioinformatics: (i analyses are increasing in complexity, often requiring several applications to be run as a workflow; and (ii multiple CPU clusters and Grids are available to more scientists. The traditional solution to the problem of running workflows across multiple CPUs required programming, often in a scripting language such as perl. Programming places such solutions beyond the reach of many bioinformatics consumers. Results We present Wildfire, a graphical user interface for constructing and running workflows. Wildfire borrows user interface features from Jemboss and adds a drag-and-drop interface allowing the user to compose EMBOSS (and other programs into workflows. For execution, Wildfire uses GEL, the underlying workflow execution engine, which can exploit available parallelism on multiple CPU machines including Beowulf-class clusters and Grids. Conclusion Wildfire simplifies the tasks of constructing and executing bioinformatics workflows.

  20. Warning against the dangers of wildfires in the Czech Republic (United States)

    Mozny, M.; Bares, D.; Virag, M.; Stalmacher, J.


    Many fire risk models have been developed for various temporal and spatial scales and application purposes. The integrated warning service in the Czech Republic is used for wildfire risk assessment model of FDI (Fire Danger Index). The FDI model is being developed in the Doksany observatory based on evaluation of weather conditions. FDI model describes danger of wildfire for vegetation covered countryside. There are five levels of danger: 1 - very low risk, 2 - low risk, 3 - moderate risk, 4 - high risk, 5 - very high risk. Simply say higher index value, reflects to higher risk of wildfire. As input data, the model uses measured values from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute stations network as well as ALADIN's model predicted conditions. The modelling process computes upper soil profile moisture, surface moistening and the spreading speed of fire. Early warning system for wildfires prevention in the Czech Republic is used since 2006.

  1. Wildfires: Information for Pregnant Women and Parents of Young Infants (United States)

    ... Weather: Wildfires (U.S. Department of Homeland Security) Are You Ready? (FEMA) American Red Cross Family Preparedness Guide (Florida Department of Health) Preparedness Information for Pregnant Women Pregnancy and Disaster Information from ...

  2. Remote Sensing of Active Volcanoes (United States)

    Francis, Peter; Rothery, David

    The synoptic coverage offered by satellites provides unparalleled opportunities for monitoring active volcanoes, and opens new avenues of scientific inquiry. Thermal infrared radiation can be used to monitor levels of activity, which is useful for automated eruption detection and for studying the emplacement of lava flows. Satellite radars can observe volcanoes through clouds or at night, and provide high-resolution topographic data. In favorable conditions, radar inteferometery can be used to measure ground deformation associated with eruptive activity on a centimetric scale. Clouds from explosive eruptions present a pressing hazard to aviation; therefore, techniques are being developed to assess eruption cloud height and to discriminate between ash and meterological clouds. The multitude of sensors to be launched on future generations of space platforms promises to greatly enhance volcanological studies, but a satellite dedicated to volcanology is needed to meet requirements of aviation safety and volcano monitoring.

  3. Mount Rainier: A decade volcano (United States)

    Swanson, Donald A.; Malone, Stephen D.; Samora, Barbara A.

    Mount Rainier, the highest (4392 m) volcano in the Cascade Range, towers over a population of more than 2.5 million in the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area, and its drainage system via the Columbia River potentially affects another 500,000 residents of southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon (Figure 1). Mount Rainier is the most hazardous volcano in the Cascades in terms of its potential for magma-water interaction and sector collapse. Major eruptions, or debris flows even without eruption, pose significant dangers and economic threats to the region. Despite such hazard and risk, Mount Rainier has received little study; such important topics as its petrologic and geochemical character, its proximal eruptive history, its susceptibility to major edifice failure, and its development over time have been barely investigated. This situation may soon change because of Mount Rainier's recent designation as a “Decade Volcano.”

  4. Systematic radon survey over active volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seidel, J.L.; Monnin, M.; Garcia Vindas, J.R. [Centre National de la Recherche Cientifique, Montpellier (France). Lab. GBE; Ricard, L.P.; Staudacher, T. [Observatoire Volcanologique Du Pitou de la Fournaise, La Plaine des Cafres (France)


    Data obtained since 1993 on Costa Rica volcanos are presented and radon anomalies recorded before the eruption of the Irazu volcano (December 8, 1994) are discussed. The Piton de la Fournaise volcano is inactive since mid 1992. The influence of the external parameters on the radon behaviour is studied and the type of perturbations induced on short-term measurements are individuate.

  5. Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others. (United States)

    Collins, Kathryn M; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F


    Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses.

  6. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.


    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" ( USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  7. Land Management Practices Associated with House Loss in Wildfires


    Philip Gibbons; Linda van Bommel; A Malcolm Gill; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Driscoll, Don A.; Bradstock, Ross A.; Emma Knight; Moritz, Max A.; Scott L Stephens; Lindenmayer, David B.


    Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires) are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction--clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing--to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question emp...

  8. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance (United States)

    Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max


    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

  9. Improving Access to Military Aircraft During Civilian Wildfires (United States)


    natural regenerative properties and which is beneficial for long-term forest health. In an undated pamphlet, CAL FIRE (the California Department of...With its long history , the federal civilian wildfire community has utilized strategic planning to guide their “… Comprehensive national aviation...suppressing wildfires from the air. Two examples are California and Colorado. While California has a long history of utilizing aircraft in the suppression

  10. Black carbon and organic carbon emissions from wildfires in Mexico




    In Mexico, approximately 7650 wildfires occur annually, affecting 263 115 hectares of land. In addition to their impact on land degradation, wildfires cause deforestation, damage to ecosystems and promote land use change; apart from being the source of emissions of toxic substances to the environment (i.e., hydrogen cya - nide, black carbon and organic carbon). Black carbon is a short-lived greenhouse pollutant that also promotes snow and ice melting and decreased rainfall; it has an estimate...

  11. Alaska volcanoes guidebook for teachers (United States)

    Adleman, Jennifer N.


    Alaska’s volcanoes, like its abundant glaciers, charismatic wildlife, and wild expanses inspire and ignite scientific curiosity and generate an ever-growing source of questions for students in Alaska and throughout the world. Alaska is home to more than 140 volcanoes, which have been active over the last 2 million years. About 90 of these volcanoes have been active within the last 10,000 years and more than 50 of these have been active since about 1700. The volcanoes in Alaska make up well over three-quarters of volcanoes in the United States that have erupted in the last 200 years. In fact, Alaska’s volcanoes erupt so frequently that it is almost guaranteed that an Alaskan will experience a volcanic eruption in his or her lifetime, and it is likely they will experience more than one. It is hard to imagine a better place for students to explore active volcanism and to understand volcanic hazards, phenomena, and global impacts. Previously developed teachers’ guidebooks with an emphasis on the volcanoes in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (Mattox, 1994) and Mount Rainier National Park in the Cascade Range (Driedger and others, 2005) provide place-based resources and activities for use in other volcanic regions in the United States. Along the lines of this tradition, this guidebook serves to provide locally relevant and useful resources and activities for the exploration of numerous and truly unique volcanic landscapes in Alaska. This guidebook provides supplemental teaching materials to be used by Alaskan students who will be inspired to become educated and prepared for inevitable future volcanic activity in Alaska. The lessons and activities in this guidebook are meant to supplement and enhance existing science content already being taught in grade levels 6–12. Correlations with Alaska State Science Standards and Grade Level Expectations adopted by the Alaska State Department of Education and Early Development (2006) for grades six through eleven are listed at

  12. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Calkin


    Full Text Available Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI along with increased demand on water resources originating on forested landscapes. These increased demands have put substantial pressure on federal agencies charged with wildfire management to continue and expand the century old policy of aggressive wildfire suppression. However, aggressive wildfire suppression is one of the major factors that drive the increased extent, intensity, and damage associated with the small number of large wildfires that are unable to be suppressed. In this paper we discuss the positive feedback loops that lead to demands for increasing suppression response while simultaneously increasing wildfire risk in the future. Despite a wealth of scientific research that demonstrates the limitations of the current management paradigm pressure to maintain the existing system are well entrenched and driven by the existing social systems that have evolved under our current management practice. Interestingly, US federal wildland fire policy provides considerable discretion for managers to pursue a range of management objectives; however, societal expectations and existing management incentive structures result in policy implementation that is straining the resilience of fire adapted ecosystems and the communities that reside in and adjacent to them.

  13. Is the Central Europe more inclinable to wildfires? (United States)

    Mozny, M.; Virag, M.; Bares, D.; Trnka, M.; Zalud, Z.; Hlavinka, P.


    Many studies indicate a gradual increase in danger of wildfire in Central Europe. The risk of wildfire differs greatly among individual areas (whether regions or districts), and this difference remains, irrespective of the methods used to describe the danger of wildfires. For this study was used the calculation of the FDI (Fire Danger Index) for 200 stations on the territory of Czech Republic in the period 1961-2008. The FDI model is being developed in the Doksany observatory based on evaluation of weather conditions. FDI model describes danger of wildfire for vegetation covered countryside. There are five levels of danger: 1 - very low risk, 2 - low risk, 3 - moderate risk, 4 - high risk, 5 - very high risk. During processing the model compute upper soil profile moisture, surface moistening and the speed of spread of wildfire. Between years 1991-2008 there was an increase in the average monthly FDI indices in comparison to the period 1961-1990. During this period, a statistically significant trend toward higher indices was found (0.02 FDI index/year). The trend of danger of wildfires growth was evident in all months.

  14. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    David E Calkin; MattheWP Thompson; Mark A Finney


    Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) along with increased demand on water resources originating on forested landscapes. These increased demands have put substantial pressure on federal agencies charged with wildfire management to continue and expand the century old policy of aggressive wildfire suppression. However, aggressive wildfire suppression is one of the major factors that drive the increased extent, intensity, and damage associated with the small number of large wildfires that are unable to be suppressed. In this paper we discuss the positive feedback loops that lead to demands for increasing suppression response while simultaneously increasing wildfire risk in the future. Despite a wealth of scientific research that demonstrates the limitations of the current management paradigm pressure to maintain the existing system are well entrenched and driven by the existing social systems that have evolved under our current management practice. Interestingly, US federal wildland fire policy provides considerable discretion for managers to pursue a range of management objectives;however, societal expectations and existing management incentive structures result in policy implementation that is straining the resilience of fire adapted ecosystems and the communities that reside in and adjacent to them.

  15. The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California (United States)

    Richardson, L.A.; Champ, P.A.; Loomis, J.B.


    There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is $9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be $84.42 per exposed person per day. ?? 2011.

  16. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Augustine Volcano, Alaska (United States)

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Waitt, Richard B.


    Augustine Volcano is a 1250-meter high stratovolcano in southwestern Cook Inlet about 280 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and within about 300 kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. Explosive eruptions have occurred six times since the early 1800s (1812, 1883, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, and 1986). The 1976 and 1986 eruptions began with an initial series of vent-clearing explosions and high vertical plumes of volcanic ash followed by pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars on the volcano flanks. Unlike some prehistoric eruptions, a summit edifice collapse and debris avalanche did not occur in 1812, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, or 1986. However, early in the 1883 eruption, a portion of the volcano summit broke loose forming a debris avalanche that flowed to the sea. The avalanche initiated a small tsunami reported on the Kenai Peninsula at English Bay, 90 kilometers east of the volcano. Plumes of volcanic ash are a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International and other local airports. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Eruptions similar to the historical and prehistoric eruptions are likely in Augustine's future.

  17. Tsunamis: Water Quality (United States)

    ... Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Tsunamis: Water Quality Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... about testing should be directed to local authorities. Water for Drinking, Cooking, and Personal Hygiene Safe water ...

  18. Early Detection of Lightning Caused Wildfires and Prediction of Wildfire Behavior through Energy Distribution, Atmospherics, Geophysics, the Sun's Azimuth, and Topology (United States)

    Giesige, C.; Nava, E.


    In the midst of a changing climate we have seen extremes in weather events: lightning, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. All of these ride on an imbalance of magnetic and electrical distribution about the earth including what goes on from the atmospheric and geophysic levels. There is relevance to the important role the sun plays in developing and feeding of the extreme weather events along with the sun's role helping to create a separation of charges on earth furthering climactic extremes. Focusing attention in North America and on how the sun, atmospheric and geophysic winds come together producing lightning events, there are connections between energy distribution in the environment, lightning caused wildfires, and extreme wildfire behavior. Lightning caused wildfires and extreme fire behavior have become enhanced with the changing climate conditions. Even with strong developments in wildfire science, there remains a lack in full understanding of connections that create a lightning caused wildfire event and lack of monitoring advancements in predicting extreme fire behavior. Several connections have been made in our research allowing us to connect multiple facets of the environment in regards to electric and magnetic influences on wildfires. Among them include: irradiance, winds, pressure systems, humidity, and topology. The connections can be made to develop better detection systems of wildfires, establish with more accuracy areas of highest risk for wildfire and extreme wildfire behavior, and prediction of wildfire behavior. A platform found within the environment can also lead to further understanding and monitoring of other extreme weather events in the future.

  19. Mount Rainier, a decade volcano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuehn, S.C.; Hooper, P.R. (Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). Dept. of Geology); Eggers, A.E. (Univ. of Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA (United States). Dept. of Geology)


    Mount Rainier, recently designated as a decade volcano, is a 14,410 foot landmark which towers over the heavily populated southern Puget Sound Lowland of Washington State. It last erupted in the mid-1800's and is an obvious threat to this area, yet Rainier has received little detailed study. Previous work has divided Rainier into two distinct pre-glacial eruptive episodes and one post-glacial eruptive episode. In a pilot project, the authors analyzed 253 well-located samples from the volcano for 27 major and trace elements. Their objective is to test the value of chemical compositions as a tool in mapping the stratigraphy and understanding the eruptive history of the volcano which they regard as prerequisite to determining the petrogenesis and potential hazard of the volcano. The preliminary data demonstrates that variation between flows is significantly greater than intra-flow variation -- a necessary condition for stratigraphic use. Numerous flows or groups of flows can be distinguished chemically. It is also apparent from the small variation in Zr abundances and considerable variation in such ratios as Ba/Nb that fractional crystallization plays a subordinate role to some form of mixing process in the origin of the Mount Rainier lavas.

  20. Extending permanent volcano monitoring networks into Iceland's ice caps (United States)

    Vogfjörd, Kristín S.; Bergsson, Bergur H.; Kjartansson, Vilhjálmur; Jónsson, Thorsteinn; Ófeigsson, Benedikt G.; Roberts, Matthew J.; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Pálsson, Finnur; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Erlendsson, Pálmi; Ingvarsson, Thorgils; Pálssson, Sighvatur K.


    The goals of the FUTUREVOLC project are the establishment of a volcano Supersite in Iceland to enable access to volcanological data from the country's many volcanoes and the development of a multiparametric volcano monitoring and early warning system. However, the location of some of Iceland's most active volcanoes inside the country's largest ice cap, Vatnajökull, makes these goals difficult to achieve as it hinders access and proper monitoring of seismic and deformation signals from the volcanoes. To overcome these obstacles, one of the developments in the project involves experimenting with extending the permanent real-time networks into the ice cap, including installation of stations in the glacier ice. At the onset of the project, only one permanent seismic and GPS site existed within Vatnajökull, on the caldera rim of the Grímsvötn volcano. Two years into the project both seismic and GPS stations have been successfully installed and operated inside the glacier; on rock outcrops as well as on the glacier surface. The specific problems to overcome are (i) harsh weather conditions requiring sturdy and resilient equipment and site installations, (ii) darkness during winter months shutting down power generation for several weeks, (iii) high snow accumulation burying the instruments, solar panels and communication and GPS antennae, and in some locations (iv) extreme icing conditions blocking transmission signals and connection to GPS satellites, as well as excluding the possibility of power generation by wind generators. In 2013, two permanent seismic stations and one GPS station were installed on rock outcrops within the ice cap in locations with 3G connections and powered by solar panels and enough battery storage to sustain operation during the darkest winter months. These sites have successfully operated for over a year with mostly regular maintenance requirements, transmitting data in real-time to IMO for analysis. Preparations for two permanent seismic

  1. Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century (United States)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut


    Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

  2. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig


    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern hemisp...

  3. Winter Flawers in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    IN the midst of a winter storm flowers still bloom in Beijing. In the greenhouses of Beijing Scriven Flower Co. Ltd., roses and lilies comtrast sharply with the bare fields and trees of early spring. Located 20 Km away in Xiaobailou Village, Daxing County, in suburban Beijing, the greenhouses were built in 1992 and have been expanded

  4. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety (United States)

    ... If you must travel by car, use tire chains and take a mobile phone with you. If you must travel, let someone know your destination and when you expect to arrive. Ask them to notify authorities if you are late. Check and restock the winter emergency supplies in your car before you leave. Never pour ...

  5. Air-cooled volcanoes ? New insights on convective airflow process within Miyakejima and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes (United States)

    Antoine, R.; Geshi, N.; Kurita, K.; Aoki, Y.; Ichihara, M.; Staudacher, T.; Bachelery, P.


    Subsurface airflow in the unsaturated zone of the soil has been extensively investigated in a variety of disciplines such as mining, nuclear waste or agriculture science. In volcanology, the recent discovery of subsurface airflow close to the terminal cone of Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island, France) provides for the first time insights into the convective behavior of air within the unsaturated layer [1]. The characteristics of the aerothermal system, its occurrence in other volcanoes, its ability to transport heat during quiescent periods and the perturbation of this system before eruptions are the key questions we want to address following this discovery. In this study, we present observations of subsurface convective airflow within opened fractures located at the summit of Miyakejima and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes from anemometric and temperature data. Two anemometers and thermocouples were placed at the surface and at the center of the fracture at two-meter depth during a diurnal cycle. Six thermocouples also measured the temperature at 1 meter-depth, on a profile set perpendicularly to the fracture. Finally, a thermal camera was used to make punctual measurements of the surface temperature of the fracture. At Miyakejima, two surveys were realized in winter 2010 and summer 2011. During the winter, mild air exit was detected from the fracture with a central vertical velocity of 20 to 50 cm/s. The temperature of the site was constant during the diurnal cycle (~ 22°C), leading to a maximum temperature contrast of 15°C between the fracture and the atmosphere just before sunrise. During summer, a different hydrodynamic behavior was observed: Air inflow was detected during the whole diurnal cycle with a mean velocity of 20 cm/s. The temperature of the fracture followed the temperature of the atmosphere at 2 meters-depth. In the case of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, the same convective behavior was observed at two different fractures during

  6. Perceived and actual wildfire danger: an economic and spatial analysis study in Colorado (USA). (United States)

    Kaval, Pamela


    Over the last 20 years, costs for wildfire initial attack in the U.S. have increased significantly. The increased cost relates to wildfire suppression practices, as well as the growing number of homes in the wildland urban interface. Requiring wildland urban interface residents to pay an annual tax for their wildfire risk could lower costs to the general taxpayer. Willingness-to-pay for wildfire prevention, in relation to both perceived and actual wildfire danger, was the focus of this study. Surveyed Colorado wildland urban interface residents were found to have a high awareness of wildfire risk and were willing-to-pay over $400 annually to reduce this risk. Respondents' beliefs about wildfire frequency were comparable to the wildfire regimes of their areas' pre-European settlement.

  7. Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. forest wildfire activity (United States)

    Westerling, A.L.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Cayan, D.R.; Swetnam, T.W.


    Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.

  8. Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

    KAUST Repository

    Coen, Janice L.


    Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP models are capable of modeling very high resolution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows. The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat release, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. These coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available. Yet, intriguing computational science questions arise in applying such models in a predictive manner, including physical processes that span a vast range of scales, processes such as spotting that cannot be modeled deterministically, estimating the consequences of uncertainty, the efforts to steer simulations with field data ("data assimilation"), lingering issues with short term forecasting of weather that may show skill only on the order of a few hours, and the difficulty of gathering pertinent data for verification and initialization in a dangerous environment. © 2010 IEEE.

  9. Near-Real-Time Earth Observation Data Supporting Wildfire Management (United States)

    Ambrosia, V. G.; Zajkowski, T.; Quayle, B.


    During disaster events, the most critical element needed by responding personnel and management teams is situational intelligence / awareness. During rapidly-evolving events such as wildfires, the need for timely information is critical to save lives, property and resources. The wildfire management agencies in the US rely heavily on remote sensing information both from airborne platforms as well as from orbital assets. The ability to readily have information from those systems, not just data, is critical to effective control and damage mitigation. NASA has been collaborating with the USFS to mature and operationalize various asset-information capabilities to effect improved knowledge of fire-prone areas, monitor wildfire events in real-time, assess effectiveness of fire management strategies, and provide rapid, post-fire assessment for recovery operations. Specific examples of near-real-time remote sensing asset utility include daily MODIS data employed to assess fire potential / wildfire hazard areas, and national-scale hot-spot detection, airborne thermal sensor collected during wildfire events to effect management strategies, EO-1 ALI 'pointable' satellite sensor data to assess fire-retardant application effectiveness, and Landsat 8 and other sensor data to derive burn severity indices for post-fire remediation work. These cases of where near-real-time data is used operationally during the previous few fire seasons will be presented.

  10. Real-time estimation of wildfire perimeters from curated crowdsourcing (United States)

    Zhong, Xu; Duckham, Matt; Chong, Derek; Tolhurst, Kevin


    Real-time information about the spatial extents of evolving natural disasters, such as wildfire or flood perimeters, can assist both emergency responders and the general public during an emergency. However, authoritative information sources can suffer from bottlenecks and delays, while user-generated social media data usually lacks the necessary structure and trustworthiness for reliable automated processing. This paper describes and evaluates an automated technique for real-time tracking of wildfire perimeters based on publicly available “curated” crowdsourced data about telephone calls to the emergency services. Our technique is based on established data mining tools, and can be adjusted using a small number of intuitive parameters. Experiments using data from the devastating Black Saturday wildfires (2009) in Victoria, Australia, demonstrate the potential for the technique to detect and track wildfire perimeters automatically, in real time, and with moderate accuracy. Accuracy can be further increased through combination with other authoritative demographic and environmental information, such as population density and dynamic wind fields. These results are also independently validated against data from the more recent 2014 Mickleham-Dalrymple wildfires.

  11. The evolution of Smokey Bear: Environmental education about wildfire for youth (United States)

    Heidi L. Ballard; Emily Evans; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Pamela. Jakes


    Many environmental education programs in the United States educate youth about the prevention of wildfire and its role in ecosystems.We reviewed 50 wildfire education programs for youth (WEY) in the U.S. through an Internet search and interviews with program providers. We investigated whether they reflect current wildfire science, environmental education (EE)...

  12. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4 (United States)

    Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael. Hand


    Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

  13. 50 CFR 35.7 - Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease. (United States)


    ... MANAGEMENT General Rules § 35.7 Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease. To the extent necessary, the Director shall prescribe measures to control wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease to... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants...

  14. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire's impacts on southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems, hydrology, and fuels (United States)

    Peter F. Ffolliott; Cody L. Stropki; Hui Chen; Daniel G. Neary


    The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire burned nearly 462,600 acres in north-central Arizona in the summer of 2002. The wildfire damaged or destroyed ecosystem resources and disrupted the hydrologic functioning within the impacted ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a largely mosaic pattern. Impacts of the wildfire on ecosystem resources, factors important to hydrologic...

  15. Pathology of wildfire risk: A characterization of social and ecological dimensions (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeffrey D Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric M White; David M. J. S. Bowman


    Despite dramatic increases in suppression spending, the risk of life and property loss associated with wildfire has continued to rise in recent decades. Economic losses from wildfires have doubled in the United States and suppression expenses have tripled between 2002 and 2012 compared to the decade prior. Loss of property to wildfire has outpaced efforts to reduce...

  16. Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States (United States)

    Patricia M. Alexandre; Susan I. Stewart; Nicholas S. Keuler; Murray K. Clayton; Miranda H. Mockrin; Avi Bar-Massada; Alexandra D. Syphard; Volker C. Radeloff


    Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland- urban interface...

  17. The Evolution of Smokey Bear: Environmental Education about Wildfire for Youth (United States)

    Ballard, Heidi L.; Evans, Emily; Sturtevant, Victoria E.; Jakes, Pamela


    Many environmental education programs in the United States educate youth about the prevention of wildfire and its role in ecosystems. We reviewed 50 wildfire education programs for youth (WEY) in the U.S. through an Internet search and interviews with program providers. We investigated whether they reflect current wildfire science, environmental…

  18. Aleutian Islands Coastal Resources Inventory and Environmental Sensitivity Maps: VOLCANOS (Volcano Points) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains point locations of active volcanoes as compiled by Motyka et al., 1993. Eighty-nine volcanoes with eruptive phases in the Quaternary are...

  19. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association


    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  20. Spectra, Winter 2014 (United States)


    oxygen from the atmosphere . This transition is referred to as the benthic redox gradient. As a result of this Fuel Cell NRL FEATURES WINTER 2014 21...coated for corrosion - proofing against the acidic environ- ment in the fuel cell and then welded together. Looking at the complexity of developing... forecasting for the fleet. His innovative spirit, involved leadership, and ability to surge technological solutions to short-fused, mission

  1. Volcano Monitoring Using Google Earth (United States)

    Bailey, J. E.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Skoog, R.


    At the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Google Earth is being used as a visualization tool for operational satellite monitoring of the region's volcanoes. Through the abilities of the Keyhole Markup Language (KML) utilized by Google Earth, different datasets have been integrated into this virtual globe browser. Examples include the ability to browse thermal satellite image overlays with dynamic control, to look for signs of volcanic activity. Webcams can also be viewed interactively through the Google Earth interface to confirm current activity. Other applications include monitoring the location and status of instrumentation; near real-time plotting of earthquake hypocenters; mapping of new volcanic deposits; and animated models of ash plumes within Google Earth, created by a combination of ash dispersion modeling and 3D visualization packages. The globe also provides an ideal interface for displaying near real-time information on detected thermal anomalies or "hotspot"; pixels in satellite images with elevated brightness temperatures relative to the background temperature. The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska collects AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) through its own receiving station. The automated processing that follows includes application of algorithms that search for hotspots close to volcano location, flagging those that meet certain criteria. Further automated routines generate folders of KML placemarkers, which are linked to Google Earth through the network link function. Downloadable KML files have been created to provide links to various data products for different volcanoes and past eruptions, and to demonstrate examples of the monitoring tools developed. These KML files will be made accessible through a new website that will become publicly available in December 2006.

  2. Modeling eruptions of Karymsky volcano


    Ozerov, A.; Ispolatov, I.; Lees, J.


    A model is proposed to explain temporal patterns of activity in a class of periodically exploding Strombolian-type volcanos. These patterns include major events (explosions) which follow each other every 10-30 minutes and subsequent tremor with a typical period of 1 second. This two-periodic activity is thought to be caused by two distinct mechanisms of accumulation of the elastic energy in the moving magma column: compressibility of the magma in the lower conduit and viscoelastic response of...

  3. The TUBIN nanosatellite mission for wildfire detection in thermal infrared (United States)

    Barschke, Merlin F.; Bartholomäus, Julian; Gordon, Karsten; Lehmann, Marc; Brieß, Klaus


    The increasing number of wildfires has significant impact on the Earth's climate system. Furthermore, they cause severe economic damage in many parts of the world. While different land and airborne wildfire detection and observation systems are in use in some areas of the world already, spaceborne systems offer great potential regarding global and continuous observation. TUBIN is a proof-of-concept mission to demonstrate the capabilities of a nanosatellite carrying lightweight infrared microbolometer arrays for spaceborne detection of wildfires and other high-temperature events. To this end, TUBIN carries two infrared microbolometers complemented by a CMOS imager. The TUBIN space segment is based on the TUBiX20 nanosatellite platform of Technische Universität Berlin and is the first mission that implements the full-scale attitude determination and control system of TUBiX20. Thereby, the TUBIN mission will demonstrate the platform's ability to support a challenging Earth observation mission.

  4. Wildfire Prediction to Inform Fire Management: Statistical Science Challenges

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, S W; Dean, C B; Martell, David L


    Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of fire processes and to inform fire and land management decision-making. Statistical methods have an important role in wildfire prediction due to the inherent stochastic nature of fire phenomena at all scales. Predictive models have exploited several sources of data describing fire phenomena. Experimental data are scarce; observational data are dominated by statistics compiled by government fire management agencies, primarily for administrative purposes and increasingly from remote sensing observations. Fires are rare events at many scales. The data describing fire phenomena can be zero-heavy and nonstationary over both space and time. Users of fire modeling methodologies are mainly fire management agencies often working under great time constraints, thus, complex models have t...

  5. Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes and Forecast) (United States)

    Tsiapas, E.


    EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (CAUSES AND FORECAST) ELIAS TSIAPAS RESEARCHER NEA STYRA, EVIA,GREECE TEL.0302224041057 The earthquakes are caused by large quantities of liquids (e.g. H2O, H2S, SO2, ect.) moving through lithosphere and pyrosphere (MOHO discontinuity) till they meet projections (mountains negative projections or projections coming from sinking lithosphere). The liquids are moved from West Eastward carried away by the pyrosphere because of differential speed of rotation of the pyrosphere by the lithosphere. With starting point an earthquake which was noticed at an area and from statistical studies, we know when, where and what rate an earthquake may be, which earthquake is caused by the same quantity of liquids, at the next east region. The forecast of an earthquake ceases to be valid if these components meet a crack in the lithosphere (e.g. limits of lithosphere plates) or a volcano crater. In this case the liquids come out into the atmosphere by the form of gasses carrying small quantities of lava with them (volcano explosion).

  6. Active Deformation of Etna Volcano Combing IFSAR and GPS data (United States)

    Lundgren, Paul


    The surface deformation of an active volcano is an important indicator of its eruptive state and its hazard potential. Mount Etna volcano in Sicily is a very active volcano with well documented eruption episodes.

  7. Multivariate statistical analysis of wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Costa, Ricardo; Caramelo, Liliana; Pereira, Mário


    Several studies demonstrate that wildfires in Portugal present high temporal and spatial variability as well as cluster behavior (Pereira et al., 2005, 2011). This study aims to contribute to the characterization of the fire regime in Portugal with the multivariate statistical analysis of the time series of number of fires and area burned in Portugal during the 1980 - 2009 period. The data used in the analysis is an extended version of the Rural Fire Portuguese Database (PRFD) (Pereira et al, 2011), provided by the National Forest Authority (Autoridade Florestal Nacional, AFN), the Portuguese Forest Service, which includes information for more than 500,000 fire records. There are many multiple advanced techniques for examining the relationships among multiple time series at the same time (e.g., canonical correlation analysis, principal components analysis, factor analysis, path analysis, multiple analyses of variance, clustering systems). This study compares and discusses the results obtained with these different techniques. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343-3358, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011 This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692, the project FLAIR (PTDC/AAC-AMB/104702/2008) and the EU 7th Framework Program through FUME (contract number 243888).

  8. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr


    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  9. Campgrounds in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This dataset provides campground locations in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Information about facilities, water availability, permit requirements and type of...

  10. Limiting the immediate and subsequent hazards associated with wildfires (United States)

    DeGraff, Jerome V.; Cannon, Susan H.; Parise, Mario


    Wildfire is a unique natural hazard because it poses immediate threats to life and property as well as creating conditions that can lead to subsequent debris flows. In recent years, the immediate destructive force of wildfires has been decreased through better understanding of fire behavior. Lightning detection networks now identify the number and locations of this common ignition source. Measurements of wind speed, temperature, slope, fuel types and fire boundaries are routinely incorporated into models for fire spread, permitting real-time adjustments to fire-fighting strategies, thus increasing fire-fighting effectiveness.

  11. Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models. (United States)

    Xuan Chen; Barry K. Goodwin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon


    In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods....

  12. Research on Methods for Building Volcano Disaster Information System--taking Changbai Mountain as an example

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xuexia; BO Liqun; LU Xingchang


    Volcano eruption is one of the most serious geological disasters in the world. There are volcanoes in every territory on the earth, about a thousand in China, among which Changbai Mountain Volcano, Wudalianchi Volcano and Tengchong Volcano are the most latent catastrophic eruptive active volcanoes. The paper, following an instance of Changbai Mountain Volcano, expounds that monitoring, forecasting and estimating volcano disaster by building Volcano Disaster Information System (VDIS) is feasible to alleviate volcano disaster.

  13. Volcanic hazards at Atitlan volcano, Guatemala (United States)

    Haapala, J.M.; Escobar Wolf, R.; Vallance, James W.; Rose, William I.; Griswold, J.P.; Schilling, S.P.; Ewert, J.W.; Mota, M.


    Atitlan Volcano is in the Guatemalan Highlands, along a west-northwest trending chain of volcanoes parallel to the mid-American trench. The volcano perches on the southern rim of the Atitlan caldera, which contains Lake Atitlan. Since the major caldera-forming eruption 85 thousand years ago (ka), three stratovolcanoes--San Pedro, Toliman, and Atitlan--have formed in and around the caldera. Atitlan is the youngest and most active of the three volcanoes. Atitlan Volcano is a composite volcano, with a steep-sided, symmetrical cone comprising alternating layers of lava flows, volcanic ash, cinders, blocks, and bombs. Eruptions of Atitlan began more than 10 ka [1] and, since the arrival of the Spanish in the mid-1400's, eruptions have occurred in six eruptive clusters (1469, 1505, 1579, 1663, 1717, 1826-1856). Owing to its distance from population centers and the limited written record from 200 to 500 years ago, only an incomplete sample of the volcano's behavior is documented prior to the 1800's. The geologic record provides a more complete sample of the volcano's behavior since the 19th century. Geologic and historical data suggest that the intensity and pattern of activity at Atitlan Volcano is similar to that of Fuego Volcano, 44 km to the east, where active eruptions have been observed throughout the historical period. Because of Atitlan's moderately explosive nature and frequency of eruptions, there is a need for local and regional hazard planning and mitigation efforts. Tourism has flourished in the area; economic pressure has pushed agricultural activity higher up the slopes of Atitlan and closer to the source of possible future volcanic activity. This report summarizes the hazards posed by Atitlan Volcano in the event of renewed activity but does not imply that an eruption is imminent. However, the recognition of potential activity will facilitate hazard and emergency preparedness.

  14. Why not use niche modelling for computing risk of wildfires ignition and spreading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini


    Full Text Available A forest fire can be a true ecological calamity, regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human actions. Although it is impossible to control nature, it is possible to map wildfire risk zones, and thence minimize the frequency of wildfires and prevent damages. Wildfire risk zones are locations where a fire is likely to start, and from where it can spread to other areas. Predictions of wildfires ignitions are critical aspects of biodiversity conservation and management, and they are only possible when a reliable fire risk zone map is available. I suggest in this paper that wildfire ignition risk computed from points of past wildfires obeys the same conceptual and mathematical rules of niche models commonly applied to points of sampled plants or animals. Therefore, niche modeling can also be an inductive approach for an effective and inexpensive computation of wildfires ignition and spreading likelihood.

  15. Why is particulate matter produced by wildfires toxic to lung macrophages?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzi, Lisa M.; Bratt, Jennifer M.; Williams, Keisha M.; Last, Jerold A., E-mail:


    The mechanistic basis of the high toxicity to lung macrophages of coarse PM from the California wildfires of 2008 was examined in cell culture experiments with mouse macrophages. Wildfire PM directly killed macrophages very rapidly in cell culture at relatively low doses. The wildfire coarse PM is about four times more toxic to macrophages on an equal weight basis than the same sized PM collected from normal ambient air (no wildfires) from the same region and season. There was a good correlation between the extent of cytotoxicity and the amount of oxidative stress observed at a given dose of wildfire PM in vitro. Our data implicate NF-{kappa}B signaling in the response of macrophages to wildfire PM, and suggest that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. The relative ratio of toxicity and of expression of biomarkers of oxidant stress between wildfire PM and 'normal' PM collected from ambient air is consistent with our previous results in mice in vivo, also suggesting that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. Our findings from this and earlier studies suggest that the active components of coarse PM from the wildfire are heat-labile organic compounds. While we cannot rule out a minor role for endotoxin in coarse PM preparations from the collected wildfire PM in our observed results both in vitro and in vivo, based on experiments using the inhibitor Polymyxin B most of the oxidant stress and pro-inflammatory activity observed was not due to endotoxin. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM kills macrophages at lower doses than coarse. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM activates the NF-kB pathway at lower doses than ambient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM in vitro and in vivo kill macrophages by oxidative stress.

  16. Detection of Wildfires with Artificial Neural Networks (United States)

    Umphlett, B.; Leeman, J.; Morrissey, M. L.


    Currently fire detection for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using satellite data is accomplished with algorithms and error checking human analysts. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been shown to be more accurate than algorithms or statistical methods for applications dealing with multiple datasets of complex observed data in the natural sciences. ANNs also deal well with multiple data sources that are not all equally reliable or equally informative to the problem. An ANN was tested to evaluate its accuracy in detecting wildfires utilizing polar orbiter numerical data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Datasets containing locations of known fires were gathered from the NOAA's polar orbiting satellites via the Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS). The data was then calibrated and navigation corrected using the Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI). Fires were located with the aid of shapefiles generated via ArcGIS. Afterwards, several smaller ten pixel by ten pixel datasets were created for each fire (using the ENVI corrected data). Several datasets were created for each fire in order to vary fire position and avoid training the ANN to look only at fires in the center of an image. Datasets containing no fires were also created. A basic pattern recognition neural network was established with the MATLAB neural network toolbox. The datasets were then randomly separated into categories used to train, validate, and test the ANN. To prevent over fitting of the data, the mean squared error (MSE) of the network was monitored and training was stopped when the MSE began to rise. Networks were tested using each channel of the AVHRR data independently, channels 3a and 3b combined, and all six channels. The number of hidden neurons for each input set was also varied between 5-350 in steps of 5 neurons. Each configuration was run 10 times, totaling about 4,200 individual network evaluations. Thirty

  17. Rill Erosion in Post Wildfire Forests after Salvage Logging (United States)

    Robichaud, Peter; Wagenbrenner, Joseph; Brown, Robert


    Despite the dominance of concentrated flow or rill erosion in the erosion processes especially in steep forest environments that have been affected by wildfire or management activities few studies have quantified these effects on rill erosion. This study quantified the effects of wildfire and post-fire timber salvage operations on rill runoff quantity, runoff velocity, and rill erosion. Simulated rill experiments were conducted at various sites in the Western US after wildfire and timber salvage operations. The onsite conditions consists of burned only, salvage logged, skid or snig trail, or skid trails with extra logging debris added. For each rill experiment, concentrated flow was applied at the top of the plot through an energy dissipater at five inflow rates for 12 min each. Runoff was sampled every 2 min and runoff volume and sediment concentration were determined for each sample. The runoff velocity was measured using a dyed calcium chloride solution and two conductivity probes placed a known distance apart. Runoff volume, runoff velocities, and sediment concentrations increased with increasing levels of disturbance. The burned only plots had lower runoff rates and sediment concentrations than any of the other disturbances. The salvage logged plots had greater responses than the burn only plots and the mitigation treatment had a marginal effect on runoff ratios, runoff velocities and sediment concentrations. These results suggest that additional disturbance after a wildfire can increase the erosional response and that proper erosion control mitigation may be an important consideration for post fire management to reduce onsite erosion.

  18. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management. (United States)

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P


    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hyde, K.D.; Riley, Karin; Stoof, C.R.


    Wildfire increases the probability of debris flows posing hazardous conditions where values-at-risk exist downstream of burned areas. Conditions and processes leading to postfire debris flows usually follow a general sequence defined here as the postfire debris flow hazard cascade: biophysical setti

  20. Experimental Forecasts of Wildfire Pollution at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (United States)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Chen, Jack; Landry, Hugo; Cousineau, Sophie; Moran, Michael


    Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations division (CMCO) has been running an experimental North American air quality forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions since 2014. This system, named FireWork, also takes anthropogenic and other natural emission sources into account. FireWork 48-hour forecasts are provided to CMCO forecasters and external partners in Canada and the U.S. twice daily during the wildfire season. This system has proven to be very useful in capturing short- and long-range smoke transport from wildfires over North America. Several upgrades to the FireWork system have been made since 2014 to accommodate the needs of operational AQ forecasters and to improve system performance. In this talk we will present performance statistics and some case studies for the 2014 and 2015 wildfire seasons. We will also describe current limitations of the FireWork system and ongoing and future work planned for this air quality forecast system.

  1. Land suitability for establishing rainwater harvesting systems for fighting wildfires (United States)

    José María León Villalobos; Manuel Anaya Garduño; Enrique Ojeda Trejo; Dante Arturo Rodríguez Trejo; José Luis Oropeza Mota; Jorge Luis García Rodríguez


    Rainwater harvesting systems (RHSs) can be used to improve the efficiency of helicopter firefighting operations. To this end, RHSs need to be strategically located in areas with high wildfire occurrence to maximize their usefulness. In this study, spatial analysis was carried out to determine suitable sites for establishing RHSs intended for air attack operations in...

  2. Briefing: Climate and wildfire in western U.S. forests (United States)

    Anthony Westerling; Tim Brown; Tania Schoennagel; Thomas Swetnam; Monica Turner; Thomas Veblen


    Wildfire in western U.S. federally managed forests has increased substantially in recent decades, with large (>1000 acre) fires in the decade through 2012 over five times as frequent (450 percent increase) and burned area over ten times as great (930 percent increase) as the 1970s and early 1980s. These changes are closely linked to increased temperatures and a...

  3. Improving Air Support for Wildfire Management in the United States (United States)


    with seasonal dry periods, more protracted drought and/or insect outbreaks to trigger wildfires.”14 The second assumption is that the current...commissions and congressional oversight committees. The transparency of structure and evolutionary nature within the U.S. military forms an adaptable culture

  4. Just blowing smoke? Residents’ social construction of communication about wildfire (United States)

    Travis Paveglio; Matthew S. Carroll; James D. Absher; Todd. Norton


    This study uses social constructionism as a basis for understanding the effectiveness of communication about wildfire risk between agency officials and wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents. Risk communication literature demonstrates a welldocumented difference in the way land managers and stakeholders conceptualize risk. This is especially true of fire because...

  5. Best management practices for creating a community wildfire protection plan (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; Christine Esposito; Sam Burns; Antony S. Cheng; Kristen C. Nelson; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Daniel R. Williams


    A community wildfire protection plan (CWPP) is a means of bringing local solutions to wildland fire management. In developing and implementing CWPPs, communities assume a leadership role in reducing wildfi re risk on federal and nonfederal land. In this publication, we identify best management practices for CWPP development and implementation based on the experiences...

  6. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate (United States)

    Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick


    The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

  7. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino


    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  8. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  9. Predictability of Volcano Eruption: lessons from a basaltic effusive volcano

    CERN Document Server

    Grasso, J R


    Volcano eruption forecast remains a challenging and controversial problem despite the fact that data from volcano monitoring significantly increased in quantity and quality during the last decades.This study uses pattern recognition techniques to quantify the predictability of the 15 Piton de la Fournaise (PdlF) eruptions in the 1988-2001 period using increase of the daily seismicity rate as a precursor. Lead time of this prediction is a few days to weeks. Using the daily seismicity rate, we formulate a simple prediction rule, use it for retrospective prediction of the 15 eruptions,and test the prediction quality with error diagrams. The best prediction performance corresponds to averaging the daily seismicity rate over 5 days and issuing a prediction alarm for 5 days. 65% of the eruptions are predicted for an alarm duration less than 20% of the time considered. Even though this result is concomitant of a large number of false alarms, it is obtained with a crude counting of daily events that are available fro...

  10. Newberry Volcano's youngest lava flows (United States)

    Robinson, Joel E.; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Jensen, Robert A.


    Most of Newberry Volcano's youngest lava flows are found within the Newberry National Volcanic Monument in central Oregon. Established November 5, 1990, the monument is managed by the U.S. Forest Service as part of the Deschutes National Forest. Since 2011, a series of aerial surveys over the monument collected elevation data using lidar (light detection and ranging) technology, which uses lasers to directly measure the ground surface. These data record previously unseen detail in the volcano’s numerous lava flows and vents. On average, a laser return was collected from the ground’s surface every 2.17 feet (ft) with ±1.3 inches vertical precision.

  11. Wildfire susceptibility mapping: comparing deterministic and stochastic approaches (United States)

    Pereira, Mário; Leuenberger, Michael; Parente, Joana; Tonini, Marj


    Estimating the probability of wildfire-occurrence in a certain area under particular environmental conditions represents a modern tool to support forest protection plans and to reduce fires consequences. This can be performed by the implementation of wildfire susceptibility mapping, normally achieved employing more or less sophisticated models which combine the predisposing variables (as raster datasets) into a geographic information systems (GIS). The selection of the appropriate variables includes the evaluation of success and the implementation of prediction curves, as well as independent probabilistic validations for different scenarios. These methods allow to define the spatial pattern of wildfire-occurrences, characterize the susceptibility of the territory, namely for specific fire causes/types, and can also account for other factors such as human behavior and social aspects. We selected Portugal as the study region which, due to its favorable climatic, topographic and vegetation conditions, is by far the European country most affected by wildfires. In addition, Verde and Zêzere (2010) performed a first assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal which can be used as benchmarking. The objectives of the present study comprise: (1) assessing the structural forest fire risk in Portugal using updated datasets, namely, with higher spatial resolution (80 m to 25 m), most recent vegetation cover (Corine Land Cover), longer fire history (1975-2013); and, (2) comparing linear vs non-linear approaches for wildfire susceptibility mapping. The data we used includes: (i) a DEM derived from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission in a resolution of 1 arc-seconds (DEM-SRTM 25 m) to assess elevation and slope; (ii) the Corine Land Cover inventory provided by the European Environment Agency ( to produce the land use land cover map; (iii) the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA) provided by the Institute for the

  12. Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests. (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E


    Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework.



    Calvin, Linda; Barrios, Veronica


    The North American winter-vegetable industry is highly integrated, with Mexican production supplying a large part of U.S. winter consumption needs. Imports from Mexico undergo a rigorous inspection procedure before entering the United States. In addition to Mexican firms, many U.S. firms are also involved in sourcing winter vegetables from Mexico. To compete well, both U.S. and Mexican firms must adapt to the changing market pressures, which reward firms that can source from many locations to...

  14. Airborne Gas Surveillance of Volcanoes in Western USA and Alaska (United States)

    Gerlach, T. M.; McGee, K. A.; Doukas, M. P.


    Volcanoes of the western USA and Alaska pose challenges to gas surveillance of volcano unrest. Locations are remote, and ground access is generally difficult. Wet climates and melt from glaciers and thick winter snowpack foster hydrothermal and ground waters that can scrub acid gases (SO2, HCl, HF) before they reach the surface, thereby masking their degassing from shallow vapor-saturated subvolcanic magma. These gases may not exhibit significant increases in emission rates until dry pathways or magma itself reaches the surface. Background or low emissions of the acid gases may thus give a false sense of security. CO2 is more likely to give early indication of subvolcanic magma degassing. It is the second most abundant magmatic volatile; it is among the least soluble magmatic volatiles; and it is far less susceptible to scrubbing than SO2, HCl, or HF. Rising H2S emissions are also a plausible early warning, since unlike SO2, HCl and HF, H2S is strongly volatilized from boiling water. Unfortunately, remote sensing of early increases in volcanic CO2 and H2S emissions is usually problematic, owing to high atmospheric CO2 levels, water vapor interference, and poor H2S infrared absorbance. We have therefore developed an aircraft-mounted system that directly measures these gases by extraction sampling of plumes. The system includes an infrared spectrometer for CO2 and an electrochemical sensor for H2S, in addition to a COSPEC and high-precision barometer, temperature probe, and GPS receiver. Measurements are made at different elevations along traverses orthogonal to plume direction or along orbits around a volcano if plume is not visible. Data for all gases are recorded in a data logger at 1-s intervals and tagged with clock time, latitude, longitude, altitude, temperature, and pressure. In-flight wind data are also acquired. Plume cross-sections are constructed with mapping software and used to calculate emission rates. Several campaigns to date show that emission rates

  15. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National average prices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

  16. Wildfire in Northern Eurasia and climate change (United States)

    Shvidenko, A.; Schepaschenko, D.


    The presentation considers dynamics of fire regimes in Northern Eurasia (limited to territories of Russia) and their impacts on ecosystems and major global biogeochemical cycles. Historically, fire regimes in different regions were defined by natural climate variability, previous fire history and the level of direct human impact. The climate specifics over the last three decades in Russia substantially impacted fire extent, frequency and severity. Regular occurrence of mega(catastrophic) fires becomes a distinct feature of current fire regimes. Megafires (e.g., 1998, 2003, 2008, 2010) lead to degradation of ecosystems and the profound depletion of biodiversity, substantial increase of emissions, create special atmospheric and seasonal weather over large areas, cause considerable damage to the economy and infrastructure, as well as adversely affect the living conditions and health of the population in the regions of fire spread. Based on a synthesis of remote sensing and ground data, the total area of wildfire in Russia between 1998-2010 is assessed at 106.9 x 106 ha or 8.23 x 106 ha yr-1, varying from 4.2 (1999) up to 17.3 x 106 ha yr-1 (2003). The uncertainty of the assessment of burnt area was estimated at ± 9%, and direct emissions of carbon at ± 23% (CI 0.9). As a rule, ~90% of the burnt area is located in Asian Russia, mainly in its southern half. About two-thirds (65.1%) of the total burned area is situated on forest land, 18.9% happened on agricultural land, 8.7% - on grass- and shrubland, and 7.3% - on wetland. The total amount of fuel that was consumed between 1998-2010 was assessed at 1.57 x 109 t C, or 121.0 Tg C yr-1. Interannual variability of this value is high - from 50 (2000) up to 231 Tg C yr-1 (2003) depending on fire season type and geographical location of the fire. On average, our results are quite close to estimates given by the GFED3 - the latter are +11.5% by area, and +13.2% by emissions. The majority of carbon emissions were provided by

  17. Instrumentation Recommendations for Volcano Monitoring at U.S. Volcanoes Under the National Volcano Early Warning System (United States)

    Moran, Seth C.; Freymueller, Jeff T.; LaHusen, Richard G.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Poland, Michael P.; Power, John A.; Schmidt, David A.; Schneider, David J.; Stephens, George; Werner, Cynthia A.; White, Randall A.


    As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding 'country rock'. Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at

  18. Volcanoes (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  19. Redoubt Volcano: 2009 Eruption Overview (United States)

    Bull, K. F.


    Redoubt Volcano is a 3110-m glaciated stratovolcano located 170 km SW of Anchorage, Alaska, on the W side of Cook Inlet. The edifice comprises a oil production in Cook Inlet was halted for nearly five months. Unrest began in August, 2008 with reports of H2S odor. In late September, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)’s seismic network recorded periods of volcanic tremor. Throughout the fall, AVO noted increased fumarolic emissions and accompanying ice- and snow-melt on and around the 1990 dome, and gas measurements showed elevated H2S and CO2 emissions. On January 23, seismometers recorded 48 hrs of intermittent tremor and discrete, low-frequency to hybrid events. Over the next 6 weeks, seismicity waxed and waned, an estimated 5-6 million m3 of ice were lost due to melting, volcanic gas emissions increased, and debris flows emerged repeatedly from recently formed ice holes near the 1990 dome, located on the crater’s N (“Drift”) side. On March 15, a phreatic explosion deposited non-juvenile ash from a new vent in the summit ice cap just S of the 1990 dome. Ash from the explosion rose to ~4500 m above sea level (asl). The plume was accompanied by weak seismicity. The first magmatic explosion occurred on March 22. Over the next two weeks, more than 19 explosions destroyed at least two lava domes and produced ash plumes that reached 6-18 km asl. Tephra was deposited along variable azimuths including trace to minor amounts on Anchorage and Kenai Peninsula communities, and reached Fairbanks, ~800 km to the N. Several lahars were produced by explosive disruption and melting of the “Drift” glacier. The largest lahars followed explosions on March 23 and April 4 and inundated the Drift River valley to the coast, causing temporary evacuation of the Drift River Oil Terminal, ~40 km from the vent. Time-lapse images captured pyroclastic flows and lahars in the “Drift” glacier valley during several of the explosions. Ballistics and pyroclastic flow deposits were

  20. Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on wildfires in northeast China (1774 to 2010) (United States)

    Yao, Qichao; Brown, Peter M.; Liu, Shirong; Rocca, Monique E.; Trouet, Valerie; Zheng, Ben; Chen, Haonan; Li, Yinchao; Liu, Duanyang; Wang, Xiaochun


    Identification of effects that climate teleconnections, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have on wildfires is difficult because of short and incomplete records in many areas of the world. We developed the first multicentury wildfire chronologies for northeast China from fire-scarred trees. Regional wildfires occurred every 7 years from the 1700s to 1947, after which fire suppression policies were implemented. Regional wildfires occurred predominately during drought years and were associated with positive phases of ENSO and PDO and negative NAO. Twentieth century meteorological records show that this contingent combination of +ENSO/+PDO/-NAO is linked to low humidity, low precipitation, and high temperature during or before late spring fire seasons. Climate and wildfires in northeast China may be predictable based on teleconnection phases, although future wildfires may be more severe due to effects of climate change and the legacy of fire suppression.

  1. Linking space observations to volcano observatories in Latin America: Results from the CEOS DRM Volcano Pilot (United States)

    Delgado, F.; Pritchard, M. E.; Biggs, J.; Arnold, D. W. D.; Poland, M. P.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Wauthier, C.; Wnuk, K.; Parker, A. L.; Amelug, F.; Sansosti, E.; Mothes, P. A.; Macedo, O.; Lara, L.; Zoffoli, S.; Aguilar, V.


    Within Latin American, about 315 volcanoes that have been active in the Holocene, but according to the United Nations Global Assessment of Risk 2015 report (GAR15) 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) has developed a 3-year pilot project to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring, and the project is possible thanks to data provided at no cost by international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). Here we highlight several examples of how satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories during the last 18 months to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises -- for example the 2013-2014 unrest episode at Cerro Negro/Chiles (Ecuador-Colombia border); the 2015 eruptions of Villarrica and Calbuco volcanoes, Chile; the 2013-present unrest and eruptions at Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes, Peru; the 2015 unrest at Guallatiri volcano, Chile; and the 2012-present rapid uplift at Cordon Caulle, Chile. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) but thermal and outgassing data have been used in a few cases. InSAR data have helped to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. We will describe several lessons learned about the type of data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in different countries.

  2. Pervasive effects of wildfire on foliar endophyte communities in montane forest trees


    Huang, Yu-ling; Devan, MM Nandi; U'Ren, Jana M; Furr, Susan H.; Arnold, A. Elizabeth


    Plants in all terrestrial ecosystems form symbioses with endophytic fungi that inhabit their healthy tissues. How these foliar endophytes respond to wildfires has not been studied previously, but is important given the increasing frequency and intensity of severe wildfires in many ecosystems, and because endophytes can influence plant growth and responses to stress. The goal of this study was to examine effects of severe wildfires on endophyte communities in forest trees, with a focus on trad...

  3. Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests. (United States)

    Hurteau, Matthew D; Liang, Shuang; Martin, Katherine L; North, Malcolm P; Koch, George W; Hungate, Bruce A


    Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three treatments (control, thin-only, and thin and burn) with and without the occurrence of wildfire. We evaluated how two different probabilities of wildfire occurrence, 1% and 2% per year, might alter the carbon balance of treatments. In the absence of wildfire, we found that thinning and burning treatments initially reduced total ecosystem carbon (TEC) and increased net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). In the presence of wildfire, the thin and burn treatment TEC surpassed that of the control in year 40 at 2%/yr wildfire probability, and in year 51 at 1%/yr wildfire probability. NECB in the presence of wildfire showed a similar response to the no-wildfire scenarios: both thin-only and thin and burn treatments increased the C sink. Treatments increased TEC by reducing both mean wildfire severity and its variability. While the carbon balance of treatments may differ in more productive forest types, the carbon balance benefits from restoring forest structure and fire in southwestern ponderosa pine forests are clear.

  4. Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate


    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Hantson, Stijn; Jiang, Leiwen; Klimont, Zbigniew; ARNETH Almut


    Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire– dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air polluta...

  5. Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US (United States)

    Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.


    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.

  6. Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.


    The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

  7. Housing Arrangement and Location Determine the Likelihood of Housing Loss Due to Wildfire


    Alexandra D Syphard; Keeley, Jon E; Avi Bar Massada; Brennan, Teresa J.; Volker C Radeloff


    Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wi...

  8. Volcano Monitoring Using Google Earth (United States)

    Cameron, W.; Dehn, J.; Bailey, J. E.; Webley, P.


    At the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), remote sensing is an important component of its daily monitoring of volcanoes. AVO’s remote sensing group (AVORS) primarily utilizes three satellite datasets; Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Polar Orbiting Satellites (POES), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Terra and Aqua satellites, and NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) data. AVHRR and MODIS data are collected by receiving stations operated by the Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at the University of Alaska’s Geophysical Institute. An additional AVHRR data feed is supplied by NOAA’s Gilmore Creek satellite tracking station. GOES data are provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey Bay. The ability to visualize these images and their derived products is critical for the timely analysis of the data. To this end, AVORS has developed javascript web interfaces that allow the user to view images and metadata. These work well for internal analysts to quickly access a given dataset, but they do not provide an integrated view of all the data. To do this AVORS has integrated its datasets with Keyhole Markup Language (KML) allowing them to be viewed by a number of virtual globes or other geobrowsers that support this code. Examples of AVORS’ use of KML include the ability to browse thermal satellite image overlays to look for signs of volcanic activity. Webcams can also be viewed interactively through KML to confirm current activity. Other applications include monitoring the location and status of instrumentation; near real-time plotting of earthquake hypocenters; mapping of new volcanic deposits using polygons; and animated models of ash plumes, created by a combination of ash dispersion modeling and 3D visualization packages.

  9. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen


    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... sensitive - geodesic solutions to the wildfire spread problem. The methods presented here stem directly from first principles of 2-dimensional Finsler geometry, and they can be readily extracted from the seminal monographs [10] and [11], but we will take special care to introduce and exemplify the necessary...... framework for the implementation of the geometric machinery into this new application - not least in order to facilitate and support the dialog between geometers and the wildfire modelling community. The ‘integration’ part alluded to above is obtained via the geodesics of the ensuing Finsler metric which...

  10. Dynamic resource allocation in disaster response: tradeoffs in wildfire suppression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nada Petrovic

    Full Text Available Challenges associated with the allocation of limited resources to mitigate the impact of natural disasters inspire fundamentally new theoretical questions for dynamic decision making in coupled human and natural systems. Wildfires are one of several types of disaster phenomena, including oil spills and disease epidemics, where (1 the disaster evolves on the same timescale as the response effort, and (2 delays in response can lead to increased disaster severity and thus greater demand for resources. We introduce a minimal stochastic process to represent wildfire progression that nonetheless accurately captures the heavy tailed statistical distribution of fire sizes observed in nature. We then couple this model for fire spread to a series of response models that isolate fundamental tradeoffs both in the strength and timing of response and also in division of limited resources across multiple competing suppression efforts. Using this framework, we compute optimal strategies for decision making scenarios that arise in fire response policy.

  11. Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.


    Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha‑1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

  12. Forecasting wind-driven wildfires using an inverse modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Rios


    Full Text Available A technology able to rapidly forecast wildlfire dynamics would lead to a paradigm shift in the response to emergencies, providing the Fire Service with essential information about the on-going fire. The article at hand presents and explores a novel methodology to forecast wildfire dynamics in wind-driven conditions, using real time data assimilation and inverse modelling. The forecasting algorithm combines Rothermel's rate of spread theory with a perimeter expansion model based on Huygens principle and solves the optimisation problem with a tangent linear approach and a forward automatic differentiation. Its potential is investigated using synthetic data and evaluated in different wildfire scenarios. The results show the high capacity of the method to quickly predict the location of the fire front with a positive lead time (ahead of the event. This work opens the door to further advances framework and more sophisticated models while keeping the computational time suitable for operativeness.

  13. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  14. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  15. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  16. "Winter is coming"

    CERN Document Server

    Kostov, Veselin; Hartman, Nikolaus; Guzewich, Scott; Rogers, Justin


    Those that do not sow care little about such mundane things as equinoxes or planting seasons, or even crop rotation for that matter. Wherever and whenever the reavers reave, the mood is always foul and the nights are never warm or pleasant. For the rest of the good folks of Westeros, however, a decent grasp of the long-term weather forecast is a necessity. Many a maester have tried to play the Game of Weather Patterns and foretell when to plant those last turnip seeds, hoping for a few more years of balmy respite. Tried and failed. For other than the somewhat vague (if not outright meaningless) omens of "Winter is Coming", their meteorological efforts have been worse than useless. To right that appalling wrong, here we attempt to explain the apparently erratic seasonal changes in the world of G.R.R.M. A natural explanation for such phenomena is the unique behavior of a circumbinary planet. Thus, by speculating that the planet under scrutiny is orbiting a pair of stars, we utilize the power of numerical three-...

  17. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia


    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  18. AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system (United States)

    Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos


    We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece ( The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also

  19. Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Gibbons

    Full Text Available Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction--clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing--to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question empirically. We predicted that modifying several fuels could theoretically reduce house loss by 76%-97%, which would translate to considerably fewer wildfire-related deaths. However, maximum levels of fuel reduction are unlikely to be feasible at every house for logistical and environmental reasons. Significant fuel variables in a logistic regression model we selected to predict house loss were (in order of decreasing effect: (1 the cover of trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses, (2 whether trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses was predominantly remnant or planted, (3 the upwind distance from houses to groups of trees or shrubs, (4 the upwind distance from houses to public forested land (irrespective of whether it was managed for nature conservation or logging, (5 the upwind distance from houses to prescribed burning within 5 years, and (6 the number of buildings or structures within 40 m of houses. All fuel treatments were more effective if undertaken closer to houses. For example, 15% fewer houses were destroyed if prescribed burning occurred at the observed minimum distance from houses (0.5 km rather than the observed mean distance from houses (8.5 km. Our results imply that a shift in emphasis away from broad-scale fuel-reduction to intensive fuel treatments close to property will more effectively mitigate impacts from wildfires on peri-urban communities.

  20. Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires. (United States)

    Gibbons, Philip; van Bommel, Linda; Gill, A Malcolm; Cary, Geoffrey J; Driscoll, Don A; Bradstock, Ross A; Knight, Emma; Moritz, Max A; Stephens, Scott L; Lindenmayer, David B


    Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires) are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction--clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing--to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question empirically. We predicted that modifying several fuels could theoretically reduce house loss by 76%-97%, which would translate to considerably fewer wildfire-related deaths. However, maximum levels of fuel reduction are unlikely to be feasible at every house for logistical and environmental reasons. Significant fuel variables in a logistic regression model we selected to predict house loss were (in order of decreasing effect): (1) the cover of trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses, (2) whether trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses was predominantly remnant or planted, (3) the upwind distance from houses to groups of trees or shrubs, (4) the upwind distance from houses to public forested land (irrespective of whether it was managed for nature conservation or logging), (5) the upwind distance from houses to prescribed burning within 5 years, and (6) the number of buildings or structures within 40 m of houses. All fuel treatments were more effective if undertaken closer to houses. For example, 15% fewer houses were destroyed if prescribed burning occurred at the observed minimum distance from houses (0.5 km) rather than the observed mean distance from houses (8.5 km). Our results imply that a shift in emphasis away from broad-scale fuel-reduction to intensive fuel treatments close to property will more effectively mitigate impacts from wildfires on peri-urban communities.

  1. When wildfire damage threatens humans, Landsat provides answers (United States)

    Young, Steven


    A wildfire’s devastation of forest and rangeland seldom ends when the last embers die. In the western United States, rain on a scorched mountainside can turn ash into mudslides. Debris flows unleashed by rainstorms can put nearby homes into harm’s way and send people scrambling for safety. The infrared capabilities of Landsat satellite imagery provide vita information about potential dangers after a wildfire.

  2. Forecasting intentional wildfires using temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelations (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; María L. Chas-Amil; Julia M. Touza; Scott L. Goodrick


    We report daily time series models containing both temporal and spatiotemporal lags, which are applied to forecasting intentional wildfires in Galicia, Spain. Models are estimated independently for each of the 19 forest districts in Galicia using a 1999–2003 training dataset and evaluated out-of-sample with a 2004–06 dataset. Poisson autoregressive models of order P –...

  3. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.


    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  4. Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. García-Ortega


    Full Text Available The Iberian Peninsula presents the highest number of wildfires in Europe. In the NW of Spain in particular, wildfires are the natural risk with the greatest economic impact in this region. Wildfires caused by lightning are closely related to the triggering of convective phenomena. The prediction of thunderstorms is a very complex task because these weather events have a local character and are highly dependent on mesoscale atmospheric conditions. The development of convective storms is directly linked to the existence of a synoptic environment favoring convection. The aim of this study is to classify the atmospheric patterns that provide favorable environments for the occurrence of wildfires caused by lightning in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain. The database used for the study contains 376 wildfire days from the period 1987–2006. NCEP data reanalysis has been used. The atmospheric fields used to characterise each day were: geopotential heights and temperatures at 500 hPa and 850 hPa, relative humidity and the horizontal wind at 850 hPa. A Principal Component Analysis in T-mode followed by a Cluster Analysis resulted in a classification of wildfire days into five clusters. The characteristics of these clusters were analysed and described, focusing particularly on the study of those wildfire days in which more than one wildfire was detected. In these cases the main feature observed was the intensification of the disturbance typical of the cluster to which the wildfire belongs.

  5. Lahar hazards at Agua volcano, Guatemala (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Vallance, J.W.; Matías, O.; Howell, M.M.


    At 3760 m, Agua volcano towers more than 3500 m above the Pacific coastal plain to the south and 2000 m above the Guatemalan highlands to the north. The volcano is within 5 to 10 kilometers (km) of Antigua, Guatemala and several other large towns situated on its northern apron. These towns have a combined population of nearly 100,000. It is within about 20 km of Escuintla (population, ca. 100,000) to the south. Though the volcano has not been active in historical time, or about the last 500 years, it has the potential to produce debris flows (watery flows of mud, rock, and debris—also known as lahars when they occur on a volcano) that could inundate these nearby populated areas.

  6. Volcanoes muon imaging using Cherenkov telescopes

    CERN Document Server

    Catalano, Osvaldo; Mineo, Teresa; Cusumano, Giancarlo; Maccarone, Maria Concetta; Pareschi, Giovanni


    A detailed understanding of a volcano inner structure is one of the key-points for the volcanic hazards evaluation. To this aim, in the last decade, geophysical radiography techniques using cosmic muon particles have been proposed. By measuring the differential attenuation of the muon flux as a function of the amount of rock crossed along different directions, it is possible to determine the density distribution of the interior of a volcano. Up to now, a number of experiments have been based on the detection of the muon tracks crossing hodoscopes, made up of scintillators or nuclear emulsion planes. Using telescopes based on the atmospheric Cherenkov imaging technique, we propose a new approach to study the interior of volcanoes detecting the Cherenkov light produced by relativistic cosmic-ray muons that survive after crossing the volcano. The Cherenkov light produced along the muon path is imaged as a typical annular pattern containing all the essential information to reconstruct particle direction and energ...

  7. Radial anisotropy ambient noise tomography of volcanoes (United States)

    Mordret, Aurélien; Rivet, Diane; Shapiro, Nikolai; Jaxybulatov, Kairly; Landès, Matthieu; Koulakov, Ivan; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph


    The use of ambient seismic noise allows us to perform surface-wave tomography of targets which could hardly be imaged by other means. The frequencies involved (~ 0.5 - 20 s), somewhere in between active seismic and regular teleseismic frequency band, make possible the high resolution imaging of intermediate-size targets like volcanic edifices. Moreover, the joint inversion of Rayleigh and Love waves dispersion curves extracted from noise correlations allows us to invert for crustal radial anisotropy. We present here the two first studies of radial anisotropy on volcanoes by showing results from Lake Toba Caldera, a super-volcano in Indonesia, and from Piton de la Fournaise volcano, a hot-spot effusive volcano on the Réunion Island (Indian Ocean). We will see how radial anisotropy can be used to infer the main fabric within a magmatic system and, consequently, its dominant type of intrusion.

  8. A field guide to Newberry Volcano, Oregon (United States)

    Jenson, Robert A.; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; McKay, Daniele


    Newberry Volcano is located in central Oregon at the intersection of the Cascade Range and the High Lava Plains. Its lavas range in age from ca. 0.5 Ma to late Holocene. Erupted products range in composition from basalt through rhyolite and cover ~3000 km2. The most recent caldera-forming eruption occurred ~80,000 years ago. This trip will highlight a revised understanding of the volcano's history based on new detailed geologic work. Stops will also focus on evidence for ice and flooding on the volcano, as well as new studies of Holocene mafic eruptions. Newberry is one of the most accessible U.S. volcanoes, and this trip will visit a range of lava types and compositions including tholeiitic and calc-alkaline basalt flows, cinder cones, and rhyolitic domes and tuffs. Stops will include early distal basalts as well as the youngest intracaldera obsidian flow.

  9. What governs the presence of residual vegetation in boreal wildfires? (United States)

    Araya, Yikalo H.; Remmel, Tarmo K.; Perera, Ajith H.


    Wildfires are frequent boreal forest disturbances in Canada, and emulating their patterns with forest harvesting has emerged as a common forest management goal. Wildfires contain many patches of residual vegetation of various size, shape, and composition; understanding their characteristics provides insights for improved emulation criteria. We studied the occurrence of residual vegetation within eleven boreal wildfire events in a natural setting; fires ignited by lightning, no suppression efforts, and no prior anthropogenic disturbances. Relative importance of the measurable geo-environmental factors and their marginal effects on residual presence are studied using Random Forests. These factors included distance from natural firebreaks (wetland, bedrock and non-vegetated areas, and water), land cover, and topographic variables (elevation, slope, and ruggedness index). We present results at spatial resolutions ranging from four to 64 m while emphasizing four and 32 m since they mimic IKONOS- and Landsat-type images. Natural firebreak features, especially the proximity to wetlands, are among the most important variables that explain the likelihood residual occurrence. The majority of residual vegetation areas are concentrated within 100 m of wetlands. Topographic variables, typically important in rugged terrain, are less important in explaining the presence of residuals within our study fires.

  10. Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change (United States)

    McKenzie, Donald; Shankar, Uma; Keane, Robert E.; Stavros, E. Natasha; Heilman, Warren E.; Fox, Douglas G.; Riebau, Allen C.


    Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We describe each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and provide some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers whom we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so we neither prescribe nor advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference. This paper provides a guide to the complexities of smoke modeling under climate change, and a research agenda for developing a modeling system that is equal to the task while being feasible with current resources.

  11. A transport model for prediction of wildfire behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, R.R.


    Wildfires are a threat to human life and property, yet they are an unavoidable part of nature. In the past people have tried to predict wildfire behavior through the use of point functional models but have been unsuccessful at adequately predicting the gross behavior of the broad spectrum of fires that occur in nature. The majority of previous models do not have self-determining propagation rates. The author uses a transport approach to represent this complicated problem and produce a model that utilizes a self-determining propagation rate. The transport approach allows one to represent a large number of environments including transition regions such as those with nonhomogeneous vegetation and terrain. Some of the most difficult features to treat are the imperfectly known boundary conditions and the fine scale structure that is unresolvable, such as the specific location of the fuel or the precise incoming winds. The author accounts for the microscopic details of a fire with macroscopic resolution by dividing quantities into mean and fluctuating parts similar to what is done in traditional turbulence modelling. The author develops a complicated model that includes the transport of multiple gas species, such as oxygen and volatile hydrocarbons, and tracks the depletion of various fuels and other stationary solids and liquids. From this model the author also forms a simplified local burning model with which he performs a number of simulations for the purpose of demonstrating the properties of a self-determining transport-based wildfire model.

  12. Forecasting wind-driven wildfires using an inverse modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Rios


    Full Text Available A technology able to rapidly forecast wildfire dynamics would lead to a paradigm shift in the response to emergencies, providing the Fire Service with essential information about the ongoing fire. This paper presents and explores a novel methodology to forecast wildfire dynamics in wind-driven conditions, using real-time data assimilation and inverse modelling. The forecasting algorithm combines Rothermel's rate of spread theory with a perimeter expansion model based on Huygens principle and solves the optimisation problem with a tangent linear approach and forward automatic differentiation. Its potential is investigated using synthetic data and evaluated in different wildfire scenarios. The results show the capacity of the method to quickly predict the location of the fire front with a positive lead time (ahead of the event in the order of 10 min for a spatial scale of 100 m. The greatest strengths of our method are lightness, speed and flexibility. We specifically tailor the forecast to be efficient and computationally cheap so it can be used in mobile systems for field deployment and operativeness. Thus, we put emphasis on producing a positive lead time and the means to maximise it.

  13. Lahar-hazard zonation for San Miguel volcano, El Salvador (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; Escobar, C.D.; Chesner, C.A.; Howell, M.M.


    San Miguel volcano, also known as Chaparrastique, is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador. The volcano, located in the eastern part of the country, rises to an altitude of about 2130 meters and towers above the communities of San Miguel, El Transito, San Rafael Oriente, and San Jorge. In addition to the larger communities that surround the volcano, several smaller communities and coffee plantations are located on or around the flanks of the volcano, and the PanAmerican and coastal highways cross the lowermost northern and southern flanks of the volcano. The population density around San Miguel volcano coupled with the proximity of major transportation routes increases the risk that even small volcano-related events, like landslides or eruptions, may have significant impact on people and infrastructure. San Miguel volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in El Salvador; it has erupted at least 29 times since 1699. Historical eruptions of the volcano consisted mainly of relatively quiescent emplacement of lava flows or minor explosions that generated modest tephra falls (erupted fragments of microscopic ash to meter sized blocks that are dispersed into the atmosphere and fall to the ground). Little is known, however, about prehistoric eruptions of the volcano. Chemical analyses of prehistoric lava flows and thin tephra falls from San Miguel volcano indicate that the volcano is composed dominantly of basalt (rock having silica content

  14. Application of Wildfire Risk Assessment Results to Wildfire Response Planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA



    How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident response planning consistent with these principles. We contextualize this framework in relation to a wildland fire management continuum...

  15. A post-wildfire response in cave dripwater chemistry (United States)

    Nagra, Gurinder; Treble, Pauline C.; Andersen, Martin S.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Coleborn, Katie; Baker, Andy


    Surface disturbances above a cave have the potential to impact cave dripwater discharge, isotopic composition and solute concentrations, which may subsequently be recorded in the stalagmites forming from these dripwaters. One such disturbance is wildfire; however, the effects of wildfire on cave chemistry and hydrology remains poorly understood. Using dripwater data monitored at two sites in a shallow cave, beneath a forest, in southwest Australia, we provide one of the first cave monitoring studies conducted in a post-fire regime, which seeks to identify the effects of wildfire and post-fire vegetation dynamics on dripwater δ18O composition and solute concentrations. We compare our post-wildfire δ18O data with predicted dripwater δ18O using a forward model based on measured hydro-climatic influences alone. This helps to delineate hydro-climatic and fire-related influences on δ18O. Further we also compare our data with both data from Golgotha Cave - which is in a similar environment but was not influenced by this particular fire - as well as regional groundwater chemistry, in an attempt to determine the extent to which wildfire affects dripwater chemistry. We find in our forested shallow cave that δ18O is higher after the fire relative to modelled δ18O. We attribute this to increased evaporation due to reduced albedo and canopy cover. The solute response post-fire varied between the two drip sites: at Site 1a, which had a large tree above it that was lost in the fire, we see a response reflecting both a reduction in tree water use and a removal of nutrients (Cl, Mg, Sr, and Ca) from the surface and subsurface. Solutes such as SO4 and K maintain high concentrations, due to the abundance of above-ground ash. At Site 2a, which was covered by lower-middle storey vegetation, we see a solute response reflecting evaporative concentration of all studied ions (Cl, Ca, Mg, Sr, SO4, and K) similar to the trend in δ18O for this drip site. We open a new avenue for

  16. Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future (United States)

    Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti


    Society as a whole is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The increased frequency of wildfires is not only a result of a changing climate, but wildfires themselves also produce a significant amount of greenhouse gases that, in-turn, further contribute to global warming. I-REACT (Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies) is an innovation project funded by the European Commission , which aims to use social media, smartphones and wearables to improve natural disaster management by integrating existing services, both local and European, into a platform that supports the entire emergency management cycle. In order to assess the impact of climate change on wildfire hazards, METEOSIM designed two different System Processes (SP) that will be integrated into the I-REACT service that can provide information on a variety of time scales. SP1 - Climate Change Impact The climate change impact on climate variables related to fires is calculated by building an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CORDEX data. A validation and an Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) calibration are done to assess the changes in the past of the climatic variables related to wildfires (temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and Fire Weather Index). Calculations in the trend and the frequency of extreme events of those variables are done for three time scales: near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). SP2 - Operational daily forecast of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using ensemble data from the ECMWF and from the GLAMEPS (multi-model ensemble) models, both supplied by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its index components are produced for each ensemble member within a wide forecast time range, from a few hours up to 10 days resulting in a

  17. FIRESTORM: Modelling the water quality risk of wildfire. (United States)

    Mason, C. I.; Sheridan, G. J.; Smith, H. G.; Jones, O.; Chong, D.; Tolhurst, K.


    Following wildfire, loss of vegetation and changes to soil properties may result in decreases in infiltration rates, less rainfall interception, and higher overland flow velocities. Rainfall events affecting burn areas before vegetation recovers can cause high magnitude erosion events that impact on downstream water quality. For cities and towns that rely upon fire-prone forest catchments for water supply, wildfire impacts on water quality represent a credible risk to water supply security. Quantifying the risk associated with the occurrence of wildfires and the magnitude of water quality impacts has important implications for managing water supplies. At present, no suitable integrative model exists that considers the probabilistic nature of system inputs as well as the range of processes and scales involved in this problem. We present FIRESTORM, a new model currently in development that aims to determine the range of sediment and associated contaminant loads that may be delivered to water supply reservoirs from the combination of wildfire and subsequent rainfall events. This Monte Carlo model incorporates the probabilistic nature of fire ignition, fire weather and rainfall, and includes deterministic models for fire behaviour and locally dominant erosion processes. FIRESTORM calculates the magnitude and associated annual risk of catchment-scale sediment loads associated with the occurrence of wildfire and rainfall generated by two rain event types. The two event types are localised, high intensity, short-duration convective storms, and widespread, longer duration synoptic-scale rainfall events. Initial application and testing of the model will focus on the two main reservoirs supplying water to Melbourne, Australia, both of which are situated in forest catchments vulnerable to wildfire. Probabilistic fire ignition and weather scenarios have been combined using 40 years of fire records and weather observations. These are used to select from a dataset of over 80

  18. EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (Causes - Forecast - Counteraction) (United States)

    Tsiapas, Elias


    Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1)Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2)Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3)The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is

  19. Winter waterfowl survey, southeastern Alaska (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Little is known of the total numbers of wintering waterfowl within the north pacific coastal region. The random stratified plot sampling methods used in 1980, as...

  20. The Challenge of Winter Backpacking. (United States)

    Cavanaugh, Michael; Mapes, Alan


    Tips and techniques for safe and enjoyable winter backpacking are offered. Topics covered include cross county skis, snowshoes, clothing, footwear, shelter, sleeping bags, food, hypothermia prevention, as well as general rules and requirements. (CO)

  1. A Warm and Cleaner Winter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    Beijing municipal and district governments have taken measures to keep residents warm and the winter sky blue In a bungalow in Xisi North Fifth Alley in the Xicheng District of Beijing,Li has lived for nearly seven decades.

  2. Factor Analysis of Wildfire and Risk Area Estimation in Korean Peninsula Using Maximum Entropy (United States)

    Kim, Teayeon; Lim, Chul-Hee; Lee, Woo-Kyun; Kim, YouSeung; Heo, Seongbong; Cha, Sung Eun; Kim, Seajin


    The number of wildfires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. Especially, Korea experienced severe drought and numbers of wildfire took effect this year. We used MaxEnt model to figure out major environmental factors for wildfire and used RCP scenarios to predict future wildfire risk area. In this study, environmental variables including topographic, anthropogenic, meteorologic data was used to figure out contributing variables of wildfire in South and North Korea, and compared accordingly. As for occurrence data, we used MODIS fire data after verification. In North Korea, AUC(Area Under the ROC Curve) value was 0.890 which was high enough to explain the distribution of wildfires. South Korea had low AUC value than North Korea and high mean standard deviation which means there is low anticipation to predict fire with same environmental variables. It is expected to enhance AUC value in South Korea with environmental variables such as distance from trails, wildfire management systems. For instance, fire occurred within DMZ(demilitarized zone, 4kms boundary from 38th parallel) has decisive influence on fire risk area in South Korea, but not in North Korea. The contribution of each environmental variables was more distributed among variables in North Korea than in South Korea. This means South Korea is dependent on few certain variables, and North Korea can be explained as number of variables with evenly distributed portions. Although the AUC value and standard deviation of South Korea was not high enough to predict wildfire, the result carries an significant meaning to figure out scientific and social matters that certain environmental variables has great weight by understanding their response curves. We also made future wildfire risk area map in whole Korean peninsula using the same model. In four RCP scenarios, it was found that severe climate change would lead wildfire risk area move north. Especially North

  3. Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests (United States)

    Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.


    We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

  4. Spreading and collapse of big basaltic volcanoes (United States)

    Puglisi, Giuseppe; Bonforte, Alessandro; Guglielmino, Francesco; Peltier, Aline; Poland, Michael


    Among the different types of volcanoes, basaltic ones usually form the most voluminous edifices. Because volcanoes are growing on a pre-existing landscape, the geologic and structural framework of the basement (and earlier volcanic landforms) influences the stress regime, seismicity, and volcanic activity. Conversely, the masses of these volcanoes introduce a morphological anomaly that affects neighboring areas. Growth of a volcano disturbs the tectonic framework of the region, clamps and unclamps existing faults (some of which may be reactivated by the new stress field), and deforms the substratum. A volcano's weight on its basement can trigger edifice spreading and collapse that can affect populated areas even at significant distance. Volcano instability can also be driven by slow tectonic deformation and magmatic intrusion. The manifestations of instability span a range of temporal and spatial scales, ranging from slow creep on individual faults to large earthquakes affecting a broad area. In the frame of MED-SVU project, our work aims to investigate the relation between basement setting and volcanic activity and stability at three Supersite volcanoes: Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kilauea (Island of Hawaii, USA) and Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, France). These volcanoes host frequent eruptive activity (effusive and explosive) and share common features indicating lateral spreading and collapse, yet they are characterized by different morphologies, dimensions, and tectonic frameworks. For instance, the basaltic ocean island volcanoes of Kilauea and Piton de la Fournaise are near the active ends of long hotspot chains while Mt. Etna has developed at junction along a convergent margin between the African and Eurasian plates and a passive margin separating the oceanic Ionian crust from the African continental crust. Magma supply and plate velocity also differ in the three settings, as to the sizes of the edifices and the extents of their rift zones. These

  5. The seismicity of Marapi volcano, West Sumatra. (United States)

    D'Auria, L.


    Marapi is one of the active volcanoes in West Sumatra. It is a stratovolcano with an edifice that is elongated in the ENE-WSW direction. Its elevation is about 2,900 m a.s.l. The summit area is characterized by a caldera that contains some active craters aligned along the ENE-WSW direction. The Marapi volcano is an attractive region for tourists and hosts many small communities its surrounding areas. The recent history of Mt. Marapi is characterized by explosive activity at the summit craters. No lava flows have passed the rim of the summit caldera in recent times. The last eruption occurred on August 5, 2004, and consisted of moderate explosive activity from the central crater. In 1975 an eruption with magmatic and phreatic explosive phases and mudflows and lahars occurred that caused fatalities in the surrounding areas. Since 1980 other eruptions have occurred at Marapi volcano. Even if the explosive intensities of those eruptions have been small to moderate, in some cases, there were fatalities. A cooperation project started between Italy and Indonesia (COVIN) for the monitoring of volcanoes in West Sumatra. In the context of this project a monitoring centre has been set up at the Bukittinggi Observatory and a seismological monitoring system for Marapi volcano has been realized. This system is based on a broadband seismic network including 4 three-component stations. The data acquired by the broadband network of Marapi volcano are continuous recordings of the seismic signals starting from 19/10/2006. Volcano-Tectonic and Long Period events of Marapi volcano together with regional and teleseismic earthquakes are recorded. Several events of high magnitude located at short distances from the network were also recorded such as on March 6, 2007, when two events of Magnitudes Mw 6.4 and 6.3 were recorded with the epicentres near the Marapi volcano. During the following days, there was a sequence of hundreds of aftershocks. The preliminary analysis of the seismicity of

  6. Real-time GNSS volcano deformation monitoring (Invited) (United States)

    Lisowski, M.; Langbein, J. O.; Hudnut, K. W.


    We present comparisons of the precision obtained from several alternative real-time GNSS processing methods, and show how offsets caused by snow and ice on an antenna can be automatically identified in real time using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data. We monitor ground deformation using continuous GNSS stations installed on several volcanoes in the Cascade Range and elsewhere, and many of these stations transmit high-rate (1s) data in real-time. We examine real-time, high-rate station position solutions obtained with two implementations of centralized RTNet (GPS Solutions, Inc.) processing, and find that the precision is roughly the same for ambiguity-fixed network solutions and for ambiguity-fixed precise point position solutions (PPPAR). The PPPAR method uses satellite clock corrections provided by GPS Solutions from a network of Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) stations in western Oregon. The precision of network solutions that include GPS and GLONASS data is similar to the GPS-only solutions, except at stations with a relatively poor view of the sky. An alternative method of processing the real-time GPS data uses clock corrections transmitted directly to the receiver, which then autonomously calculates and transmits positions. We will compare our RTNet results with autonomous point position solutions calculated using Trimble's CenterPoint RTX corrections. RTX performance in repeated, controlled, large antenna-motion tests by USGS and UNAVCO indicates that it meets requirements of USGS volcano-monitoring applications; more thorough testing and performance checks on an ongoing basis would be desirable. GNSS antennas on volcanoes often become temporarily coated with ice or buried by snow in the winter. In these situations, signal delays introduce an apparent offset in the monitoring station's position. We address this problem by implementing in real time a technique developed by Kristine Larson that uses changes in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals

  7. Impact of wildfire-induced land cover modification on local meteorology: A sensitivity study of the 2003 wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Hernandez, Charles; Drobinski, Philippe; Turquety, Solène


    Wildfires alter land cover creating changes in dynamic, vegetative, radiative, thermal and hydrological properties of the surface. However, how so drastic changes induced by wildfires and how the age of the burnt scar affect the small and meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer dynamics are largely unknown. These questions are relevant for process analysis, meteorological and air quality forecast but also for regional climate analysis. Such questions are addressed numerically in this study on the case of the Portugal wildfires in 2003 as a testbed. In order to study the effects of burnt scars, an ensemble of numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) have been performed with different surface properties mimicking the surface state immediately after the fire, few days after the fire and few months after the fire. In order to investigate such issue in a seamless approach, the same modelling framework has been used with various horizontal resolutions of the model grid and land use, ranging from 3.5 km, which can be considered as the typical resolution of state-of-the art regional numerical weather prediction models to 14 km which is now the typical target resolution of regional climate models. The study shows that the combination of high surface heat fluxes over the burnt area, large differential heating with respect to the preserved surroundings and lower surface roughness produces very intense frontogenesis with vertical velocity reaching few meters per second. This powerful meso-scale circulation can pump more humid air from the surroundings not impacted by the wildfire and produce more cloudiness over the burnt area. The influence of soil temperature immediately after the wildfire ceases is mainly seen at night as the boundary-layer remains unstably stratified and lasts only few days. So the intensity of the induced meso-scale circulation decreases with time, even though it remains until full recovery of the vegetation

  8. Preliminary results from a survey of U.S. Forest Service wildfire managers' attitudes toward aviation personnel exposure and risk (United States)

    Matthew Wibbenmeyer; Michael Hand; David Calkin


    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USFS) has, in recent years, increasingly emphasized the importance of safety to its employees, but wildfire management remains a risky endeavor. While wildfire management decisions affecting safety and exposure of firefighters to the wildland fire environment may be aided by decision support tools such the Wildfire...

  9. Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California (United States)

    Jamie Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Carol Ewell; Alicia Reiner; Jo Ann Fites; Christopher Dow; Patrick Gonzalez; David Saah; John Battles


    Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire...

  10. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources (United States)

    Michael Hand; Hari Katuwal; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson


    Despite large commitments of personnel and equipment to wildfire suppression, relatively little is known about the factors that affect how many resources are ordered and assigned to wildfire incidents and the variation in resources across incident management teams (IMTs). Using detailed data on suppression resource assignments for IMTs managing the highest complexity...

  11. Social amplification of wildfire risk: The role of social interactions and information sources (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Katherine L. Dickinson; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores


    Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire-prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social...

  12. Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program: Full-scale testing and demonstration final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quarles, Stephen, L.; Sindelar, Melissa


    The primary goal of the Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program was to develop a home evaluation tool that could assess the ignition potential of a structure subjected to wildfire exposures. This report describes the tests that were conducted, summarizes the results, and discusses the implications of these results with regard to the vulnerabilities to homes and buildings.

  13. Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Eva Karau


    Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology...

  14. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 (United States)

    W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Patrick H. Freeborn; Zachary A. Holden; Timothy J. Brown; Grant J. Williamson; David M. J. S. Bowman


    Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have...

  15. The economic cost of adverse health effects from wildfire-smoke exposure: A review (United States)

    Ikuho Kochi; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis


    The economic costs of adverse health effects associated with exposure to wildfire smoke should be given serious consideration in determining the optimal wildfire management policy. Unfortunately, the literature in this research area is thin. In an effort to better understand the nature of these economic costs, we review and synthesise the relevant literature in three...

  16. The effect of newspaper coverage and political pressure on wildfire suppression costs (United States)

    Geoffrey H Donovan; Jeffrey P Prestemon; Krista Gebert


    Controlling wildfire suppression expenditures has become a major public policy concern in the United States. However, most policy remedies have focused on the biophysical determinants of suppression costs: fuel loads and weather, for example. We show that two non-biophysical variables—newspaper coverage and political pressure—have a significant effect on wildfire...

  17. Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment (United States)

    Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins


    Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

  18. Post-wildfire seeding in forests of the western United States: An evidence-based review (United States)

    Donna Peppin; Peter Z. Fule; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Jan L. Beyers; Molly E. Hunter


    Broadcast seeding is one of the most widely used post-wildfire emergency response treatments intended to reduce soil erosion, increase vegetative ground cover, and minimize establishment and spread of non-native plant species. We conducted an evidence-based review to examine the effectiveness and effects of post-wildfire seeding treatments on soil stabilization, non-...

  19. Assessing the Impact of Active Land Management in Mitigating Wildfire Threat to Source Water Supply Quality (United States)

    Bladon, K. D.; Silins, U.; Emelko, M. B.; Flannigan, M.; Dupont, D.; Robinne, F.; Wang, X.; Parisien, M. A.; Stone, M.; Thompson, D. K.; Tymstra, C.; Schroeder, D.; Kienzle, S. W.; Anderson, A.


    The vast majority of surface water supplies in Alberta originates in forested regions of the province, and supports approximately 94 municipal utilities, 208 communities, and 67% of the provincial population. These surface water supplies are highly vulnerable to contamination inputs and changing water conditions associated with wildfires. A provincial scale risk analysis framework is being used to investigate the magnitude and likelihood of wildfire occurrence in source water regions to evaluate the potential for altered water quality and quantity. The initial analysis identified which forested regions and which municipal drinking water treatment facilities are most at risk from wildfire. The efficacy of several current and potential landscape treatments to mitigate wildfire threats, along with the likely outcome of these treatments on mitigation of potential impacts of wildfire to drinking water treatment, are being modeled. A Monte Carlo modeling approach incorporating wildfire regime characteristics is used to simulate the ignition and growth of wildfires and generate outcome distributions for the different mitigation strategies. Cumulative changes in water quality at large river basin scales are being modeled and linked to water treatment impacts with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A critical foundation of this approach is the close interaction of a large, trans-disciplinary team of researchers capable of integrating highly diverse issues of landscape wildfire dynamics, cross-scale water supply issues, and their linkage to downstream risks to drinking water treatment engineering.

  20. A Wildfire-relevant climatology of the convective environment of the United States (United States)

    Brian E. Potter; Matthew A. Anaya


    Convective instability can influence the behaviour of large wildfires. Because wildfires modify the temperature and moisture of air in their plumes, instability calculations using ambient conditions may not accurately represent convective potential for some fire plumes. This study used the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop a climatology of the convective...

  1. Wildfire hazard mapping: exploring site conditions in eastern US wildland—ruban interfaces (United States)

    Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad


    Wildfires are a serious threat for land managers and property owners, and over the last few decades this threat has expanded as a result of increased rural development. Most wildfires in the north-eastern US occur in the wildland—urban interface, those regions of intermingling urban and non-developed vegetated lands, where access to firefighting resources can...

  2. Air Quality Deterioration of Urban Areas Caused by Wildfires in a Natural Reservoir Forest of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Carbajal


    Full Text Available Many regions of the world suffer loss of vegetation and reduced air quality due to wildfires. Studies on aerosol emissions by wildfires often discuss the negative effects of atmospheric contaminants from a regional or mesoscale perspective. The occurrence of wildfires reveals that a high percentage takes place close to large urban areas. Very high concentration of pollutants and PM10 particulate matter reach urban zones and millions of inhabitants. These events of high pollutant concentrations are seasonally recurrent. There are many large urban areas in the world that often undergo severe air deterioration due to wildfires smoke. We document the extreme impact of wildfire that occurs in the Protected Area of Flora and Fauna La Primavera located in neighborhood of Guadalajara, a large urban zone in Mexico. The simultaneous emissions of aerosols by 60 wildfires were simulated and compared with observed data. The plume generated by the wildfires reached large areas of the central part of Mexico. The principal characteristics of smog emissions (CO, NO2, and PM10 over the urban area were acceptably reproduced. Observed and modeled CO, PM10, and NO2 data indicated that aerosol plumes generated by the wildfires increased notably the concentrations over the metropolitan zone of Guadalajara.

  3. Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete Marques


    Full Text Available Wildfires impact the outcomes of forest management plans. Addressing that impact is thus critical for effective forest ecosystem management planning. This paper presents research on the use of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM methods that integrate wildfire risk in planning contexts characterized by multiple objectives. Specifically, an a posteriori preference modeling approach is developed that adds wildfire criteria to a set of objectives representing ecosystem services supply values. Wildfire risk criteria are derived from stand-level wildfire occurrence and damage models as well as from the characteristics of neighboring stands that may impact wildfire probability and spread. A forested landscape classified into 1976 stands is used for testing purposes. The management planning criteria include the carbon stock, harvest volumes for three forest species, the volume of the ending inventory, and resistance to wildfire risk indicators. Results show the potential of multiple criteria decision making methods to provide information about trade-offs between wildfire risk and the supply of provisioning (timber as well as regulatory (carbon ecosystem services. This information may contribute to the effectiveness of forest ecosystem management planning.

  4. Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest carbon dynamics in the western United States (United States)

    Joseph C. Restiano; David L. Peterson


    Sequestration of carbon (C) in forests has the potential to mitigate the effects of climate change by offsetting future emissions of greenhouse gases. However, in dry temperate forests, wildfire is a natural disturbance agent with the potential to release large fluxes of C into the atmosphere. Climate-driven increases in wildfire extent and severity arc expected to...

  5. Diversity in forest management to reduce wildfire losses: implications for resilience (United States)

    Susan Charnley; Thomas A. Spies; Ana M. G. Barros; Eric M. White; Keith A. Olsen


    This study investigates how federal, state, and private corporate forest owners in a fire-prone landscape of southcentral Oregon manage their forests to reduce wildfire hazard and loss to high-severity wildfire. We evaluate the implications of our findings for concepts of social–ecological resilience. Using interview data, we found a high degree of "response...

  6. Repeating Cardiopulmonary Health Effects in Rural North Carolina Population During a Second Large Peat Wildfire (United States)

    BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure from wildfire smoke are neither definitive nor consistent with PM2.5 from other air pollution sources. Non-comparability among wildfire health studies limits research conclusions.METHODS:We exam...

  7. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy


    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  8. Sources and Implications of Bias and Uncertainty in a Century of US Wildfire Activity Data (United States)

    Short, K.


    The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). Wildfire activity data have been collected in the US for over a century. Yet, to this day, no single unified system of wildfire record-keeping exists. Data for analysis are generally harvested from archival summary reports from federal or interagency fire organizations; incident-level wildfire reporting systems of the federal, state, and local fire services; and, increasingly, remote-sensing programs. It is typical for research into wildfire activity patterns for all or part of the last century to require data from several of these sources and perhaps others. That work is complicated by the disunity of the various datasets and potentially compromised by inherent reporting biases, discussed here. The availability of wildfire records with the information content and geospatial precision generally sought for increasingly popular climatological analyses and the modeling of contemporary wildfire risk is limited to recent decades. We explain how the disunity and idiosyncrasies of US wildfire reporting have largely precluded true interagency, or all-lands, analyses of even recent wildfire activity and hamstrung some early risk modeling efforts. We then describe our efforts to acquire, standardize, error-check, compile, scrub, and evaluate the completeness of US federal, state, and local wildfire records from 1992-2011 for the national interagency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) application. The resulting FPA Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD) includes nearly 1.6 million records from the 20-year period, with values for at least the following core data elements: location at least as precise as a Public Land Survey System section (2.6-km2 grid), discovery date, and final fire size. The FPA FOD is publicly available from the Research Data Archive of the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (

  9. Seismic unrest at Katla Volcano- southern Iceland (United States)

    jeddi, zeinab; Tryggvason, Ari; Gudmundsson, Olafur; Bödvarsson, Reynir; SIL Seismology Group


    Katla volcano is located on the propagating Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) in South Iceland. It is located beneath Mýrdalsjökull ice-cap which covers an area of almost 600 km2, comprising the summit caldera and the eruption vents. 20 eruptions between 930 and 1918 with intervals of 13-95 years are documented at Katla which is one of the most active subglacial volcanoes in Iceland. Eruptions at Katla are mainly explosive due to the subglacial mode of extrusion and produce high eruption columns and catastrophic melt water floods (jökulhlaups). The present long Volcanic repose (almost 96 years) at Katla, the general unrest since 1955, and the 2010 eruption of the neighbouring Eyjafjallajökull volcano has prompted concerns among geoscientists about an imminent eruption. Thus, the volcano has been densely monitored by seismologists and volcanologists. The seismology group of Uppsala University as a partner in the Volcano Anatomy (VA) project in collaboration with the University of Iceland and the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) installed 9 temporary seismic stations on and around the Mýrdalsjökull glacier in 2011. Another 10 permanent seismic stations are operated by IMO around Katla. The project's data collection is now finished and temporary stations were pulled down in August 2013. According to seismicity maps of the whole recording period, thousands of microearthquakes have occurred within the caldera region. At least three different source areas are active in Katla: the caldera region, the western Godaland region and a small cluster at the southern rim of Mýrdalsjökull near the glacial stream of Hafursarjökull. Seismicity in the southern flank has basically started after June 2011. The caldera events are mainly volcano-tectonic, while western and southern events are mostly long period (lp) and can be related to glacial or magmatic movement. One motivation of the VA Katla project is to better understand the physical mechanism of these lp events. Changes

  10. Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response (United States)

    Shakesby, Richard A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.; Robichaud, Peter R.


    Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including modelling, to focus on priority research issues. The aim was to improve our understanding of controls and responses and the predictive capabilities of models. This conference led to the eight selected papers in this special issue. They address aspects of the distinctiveness in the controls and responses among wildfire regions, spatiotemporal rainfall variability, infiltration, runoff connectivity, debris flow formation and modelling applications. Here we summarise key findings from these papers and evaluate their contribution to improving understanding and prediction of post-wildfire runoff and erosion under changes in climate, human intervention and population pressure on wildfire-prone areas.

  11. Re-envisioning community-wildfire relations in the U.S. West as adaptive governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse B. Abrams


    Full Text Available Prompted by a series of increasingly destructive, expensive, and highly visible wildfire crises in human communities across the globe, a robust body of scholarship has emerged to theorize, conceptualize, and measure community-level resilience to wildfires. To date, however, insufficient consideration has been given to wildfire resilience as a process of adaptive governance mediated by institutions at multiple scales. Here we explore the possibilities for addressing this gap through an analysis of wildfire resilience among wildland-urban interface communities in the western region of the United States. We re-engage important but overlooked components of social-ecological system resilience by situating rural communities within their state- to national-level institutional contexts; we then analyze two communities in Nevada and New Mexico in terms of their institutional settings and responses to recent wildfire events. We frame our analysis around the concepts of scale matching, linking within and across scales, and institutional flexibility.

  12. The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel (United States)

    Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive


    Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

  13. Volcanoes in the Classroom--an Explosive Learning Experience. (United States)

    Thompson, Susan A.; Thompson, Keith S.


    Presents a unit on volcanoes for third- and fourth-grade students. Includes demonstrations; video presentations; building a volcano model; and inviting a scientist, preferably a vulcanologist, to share his or her expertise with students. (JRH)

  14. Volcanostratigraphic Approach for Evaluation of Geothermal Potential in Galunggung Volcano (United States)

    Ramadhan, Q. S.; Sianipar, J. Y.; Pratopo, A. K.


    he geothermal systems in Indonesia are primarily associated with volcanoes. There are over 100 volcanoes located on Sumatra, Java, and in the eastern part of Indonesia. Volcanostratigraphy is one of the methods that is used in the early stage for the exploration of volcanic geothermal system to identify the characteristics of the volcano. The stratigraphy of Galunggung Volcano is identified based on 1:100.000 scale topographic map of Tasikmalaya sheet, 1:50.000 scale topographic map and also geological map. The schematic flowchart for evaluation of geothermal exploration is used to interpret and evaluate geothermal potential in volcanic regions. Volcanostratigraphy study has been done on Galunggung Volcano and Talaga Bodas Volcano, West Java, Indonesia. Based on the interpretation of topographic map and analysis of the dimension, rock composition, age and stress regime, we conclude that both Galunggung Volcano and Talaga Bodas Volcano have a geothermal resource potential that deserve further investigation.

  15. USGS U.S. Volcanoes with Elevated Status (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Website provides list of elevated status volcanoes with access to activity updates and/or information releases for changes in activity at the volcanoes. activity at...

  16. Revisiting wildfires at the K-Pg boundary (United States)

    Morgan, Joanna; Artemieva, Natalia; Goldin, Tamara


    discovery of large amounts of soot in clays deposited at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and linked to the ~65 Ma Chicxulub impact crater led to the hypothesis that major wildfires were a consequence of the asteroid impact. Subsequently, several lines of evidence, including the lack of charcoal in North American sites, were used to argue against global wildfires. Close to the impact site fires are likely to be directly ignited by the impact fireball, whereas globally they could be ignited by radiation from the reentry of hypervelocity ejecta. To-date, models of the latter have yet to take into account that ejection—and thus the emission of thermal radiation—is asymmetric and dependent on impact angle. Here, we model: (1) the impact and ejection of material, (2) the ballistic continuation of ejecta around a spherical Earth, and (3) the thermal pulse delivered to the Earth's surface when ejecta reenters the atmosphere. We find that thermal pulses in the downrange direction are sufficient to ignite flora several thousand kilometers from Chicxulub, whereas pulses at most sites in the uprange direction are too low to ignite even the most susceptible plant matter. Our analyses and models suggest some fires were ignited by the impact fireball and ejecta reentry, but that the nonuniform distribution of thermal radiation across the surface of the Earth is inconsistent with the ignition of fires globally as a direct and immediate result of the Chicxulub impact. Instead, we propose that the desiccation of flora by ejecta reentry, as well as the effects of postimpact global cooling/darkness, left much of the terrestrial flora prone to fires, and that the volume of soot in the global K-Pg layer is explained by a combination of syn- and postimpact wildfires.

  17. Effects of Metals Associated with Wildfire Ash on Water Quality (United States)

    Cerrato, J.; Clark, A.; Correa, N.; Ali, A.; Blake, J.; Bixby, R.


    The forests of the western United States are impacted dramatically by climate change and have suffered from large-scale increases in wildfire activity. This rise in wildfires introduces additional ash to ecosystems and can represent a serious and ongoing threat to water quality in streams and rivers from storm event runoff in burn areas. The effect of metals associated with wildfire ash (from wood collected from the Valles Caldera National Preserve, Jemez Mountains, New Mexico) on solution pH and dissolved oxygen was assessed through a series of laboratory experiments. Microscopy and spectroscopy analyses were conducted to characterize the elemental content and oxidation state of metals in unreacted and reacted ash. Certain metals (e.g., Ca, K, Al, Mg) were detected in ash from ponderosa pine, one of the dominant species in the Valles Caldera, with mean concentrations ranging from 400-1750 mg kg-1. Other metals (e.g., Na, Fe, Mn, V, Zn, Ni) were present at lower mean concentrations ranging from 12-210 mg kg-1. The initial pH after conducting batch experiments reacting ash with water started at 9.9 and the alkalinity of the water was 110 mg L-1 as CaCO3. Solution pH decreased to 8.0 after 48 hours of reaction, which is almost a delta of two pH units. Dissolved oxygen concentrations decreased by 2 mg L-1 over the course of 12 hours before the rate of reaeration surpassed the rate of consumption. This presentation will discuss how redox-active metals, such as Fe and Mn, could contribute to the increased dissolved oxygen demand and fluctuation of the oxidation/reduction potential in the system.

  18. Quantifying Hillslope to Watershed Erosional Response Following Wildfire (United States)

    Vega, S.; Pierson, F. B.; Williams, C. J.; Brooks, E. S.; Pierce, J. L.; Roehner, C.


    The frequency and severity of wildfires is increasing across western US sagebrush steppe rangelands as the result of warming climate conditions and invasive plant species. Following wildfire, the soil surface is left with little vegetation, exposing it to erosion by wind and water. Erosion following wildfires is a concern among land managers due to the threat it poses to resources, infrastructure, and human health. Most post-fire erosion research has used artificial rainfall. This study uses natural rainfall and a network of silt fences to quantify hillslope to watershed scale erosion response following the 2015 Soda Fire that burned 113,300 ha in southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon. In this study, we will evaluate the drivers of erosion over multiple spatial scales and assess the recovery of vegetation and soil water repellency for a two year period post-fire. We installed a network of silt fences over long and short hillslope distances and in swales within a 130 ha catchment within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho, USA. The overall study design consists of thirty silt fences spanning north and south facing aspects, an existing weir measuring watershed streamflow and sediment discharge, and two meteorological stations. The erosional response following the fire was mainly driven by wind and snowmelt. The swales produced the most sediment compared to the long and short hillslopes. On the south facing aspect the long and short hillslopes did not produce any sediment whereas on the north facing aspect the swales produced the most sediment. This presentation summarizes these preliminary first year hydrologic and erosion responses. The results provide data for determining the drivers for erosion at different spatial scales, advance understanding of post-fire hillslope to watershed erosional responses, and offer insight into recovery of vegetation and soil water repellency post-fire. This study will aid land management agencies

  19. Weather types and the regime of wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.; Dacamara, C. C.


    An objective classification scheme, as developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), was applied to classify the daily atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal between 1980 and 2007 into a set of 10 basic weather types (WTs). The classification scheme relies on a set of atmospheric circulation indices, namely southerly flow (SF), westerly flow (WF), total flow (F), southerly shear vorticity (ZS), westerly shear vorticity (ZW) and total vorticity (Z). The weather-typing approach, together with surfacemeteorological variables (e.g. intensity and direction of geostrophic wind, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) were then associated to wildfire events as recorded in the official Portuguese fire database consisting of information on each fire occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal within the same period (>450.000 events). The objective of this study is to explore the dependence of wildfire activity on weather and climate and then evaluate the potential of WTs to discriminate among recorded wildfires on what respects to their occurrence and development. Results show that days characterised by surface flow with an eastern component (i.e. NE, E and SE) account for a high percentage of daily burnt area, as opposed to surface westerly flow (NW, W and SW), which represents about a quarter of the total number of days but only accounts for a very low percentage of active fires and of burnt area. Meteorological variables such as minimum and maximum temperatures, that are closely associated to surface wind intensity and direction, also present a good ability to discriminate between the different types of fire events.. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

  20. Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change. (United States)

    Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F A; Bravo, Mercedes A; Bell, Michelle L


    Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

  1. Transboundary Collaborations to Enhance Wildfire Suppression in Protected Areas of the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. N. Zaimes


    Full Text Available For the most effective and efficient management of certain natural resources (e.g. protected areas and disasters (e.g. wildfires transboundary approaches are needed. In addition in the management of protected areas, the role of wildfire should be incorporated, something that was ignored in the past and led to catastrophic wildfires. The Black Sea is a region that wildfires in the protected areas are expected to increase. This has to do with the abandonment of rural areas and the higher temperatures, especially during summer, due to climate change. Interesting is also the fact that some countries of the region have extensive experience while other do not have neither the experience nor the necessary infrastructures to face large wildfires. A transboundary collaboration would be very beneficial to the countries with limited experiences and capacities to suppress wildfires. The objective of this study is to be proactive by developing innovative tools to help suppress wildfires and enhancing the knowledge on wildfires and protected areas. The innovative tools included 4 different research activities and products. Firstly, an online Digital Geodatabase for the six pilot areas was developed. Next forest fire fuels and maps were developed while a forest fire behavior model was run to create the overall fire risk maps for the pilot areas. To estimate water resources and watershed streamflows the hydrologic model SWAT was validated and calibrated for the pilot areas. The final activities included a multi-criteria decision analysis to select the optimal location of the water reservoirs and the use of spatial analyst to provide the optimal routes to reach reservoirs by the fire vehicles. To enhance the responsible agency personnel along with stakeholders knowledge of the region, a Neighborhood Network with regular quarterly meetings was established. Participants for all six project countries were present in the meetings. Overall, new tool that will enhance

  2. LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management (United States)

    Nelson, Kurtis J.; Connot, Joel A.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Picotte, Joshua J.


    Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing

  3. Hydrological and sediment connectivity in areas affected by wildfires. (United States)

    Martinez-Murillo, Juan F.; Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.


    This study deals with the hydrological and sediment connectivity (HSC) process in burned areas, from detailed to wider spatial scales: -First of all, it is presented a brief review and analysis of meta-data, already published. -Secondly, some examples of HSC are shown from areas affected by wildfires in South of Spain. -Finally, it is an attempt of applying some indexes of hydrological connectivity to those areas. The study try to shed light on this complex process of connectivity from the hydrological and sedimentary point of view, a kew issue to improve the management of burned areas.

  4. Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.


    Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological

  5. Effect of Wildfire on Sediment Sorting in a Steep Channel (United States)

    Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; O'Hirok, L.; Storesund, R.


    Wildfire is an external forcing factor in the landscape. In chaparral environments, wildfire initiates transport of well-sorted fine sediment through dry-ravel processes on hillslopes and facilitates delivery of sediment to stream channels. In turn, this periodic post-fire sediment influx governs sorting of channel-bed material during subsequent floods that mobilize and transport the sediment downstream. We investigated the effects of the May 2013 Springs Wildfire in the Santa Monica Mountains in semi-arid southern California with field measurements and terrestrial LiDAR scanning. Before the fire, sediment sorting within the heterogeneous bed material present in Big Sycamore Creek was controlled by organized step-pool bedforms. Boulders formed steps with relatively finer cobbles, gravel, and sand filling the pools. Before the fire, the grain size distribution present in the substrate between boulder steps was relatively coarse (D84 = 250 mm), in contrast to that in the influx of sediment contributed by post-fire dry-ravel processes deposited at channel margins (D84 = 8 mm). Flow shear stress during one small flood in 2014 (post-fire) was adequate to mobilize fine dry ravel- related sediment. Transport capacity was sufficient to mobilize and transport this sediment within a study reach; however, it was not adequate to flush the fine material downstream. Shear stress required to mobilize sediment contributed by dry ravel was substantially less than that required to transport the substrate material present before the wildfire. The small flood deposited fine sediment (D84 = 16 mm) as flow lost capacity. Resulting deposition buried bedforms, changing the step-pool profile to a plane bed. The relatively poorly sorted, coarse, rough bed changed to a well sorted, fine, smooth, bed. These changes have implications for sediment transport dynamics and aquatic ecology. In steep, semi-arid, chaparral fluvial systems, sediment derived from dry-ravel processes influences the

  6. The Cenozoic Volcanoes in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Jiaqi; HAN Jingtai; GUO Zhengfu


    There are more than 600 Cenozoic volcanic cones and craters with abeut 50 000 km2of lava flows in northeast China, which formed many volcanic clusters and shown the features of the continental rift - type volcanoes. Most volcanic activities in this area, especially in the east part of Songliao graben, were usually controlled by rifts and faults with the main direction of NE / NNE in parallel and become younger from the central graben towards its both sides, especially to the east continental margin. It is revealed that the volcanism occurred in northeast China was as strong as that occurred in Japan during the Miocene and the Quaternary. The Quaternary basalt that is usually distributed along river valley is called "valley basalt"while Neogene basalt usually distributed in the top of mounts is called "high position basalt". These volcanoes and volcanic rocks are usually composed of alkaline basalts with ultramafic inclusions, except Changbaishan volcano that is built by trachyte and pantellerite.

  7. Renewed unrest at Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska (United States)

    Power, John A.


    The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO),a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, has detected unrest at Mount Spurr volcano, located about 125 km west of Anchorage, Alaska, at the northeast end of the Aleutian volcanic arc.This activity consists of increased seismicity melting of the summit ice cap, and substantial rates of C02 and H2S emission.The current unrest is centered beneath the volcano's 3374-m-high summit, whose last known eruption was 5000–6000 years ago. Since then, Crater Peak, 2309 m in elevation and 4 km to the south, has been the active vent. Recent eruptions occurred in 1953 and 1992.

  8. Living with Volcanoes: Year Eleven Teaching Resource Unit. (United States)

    Le Heron, Kiri; Andrews, Jill; Hooks, Stacey; Larnder, Michele; Le Heron, Richard


    Presents a unit on volcanoes and experiences with volcanoes that helps students develop geography skills. Focuses on four volcanoes: (1) Rangitoto Island; (2) Lake Pupuke; (3) Mount Smart; and (4) One Tree Hill. Includes an answer sheet and resources to use with the unit. (CMK)

  9. How Do Volcanoes Affect Human Life? Integrated Unit. (United States)

    Dayton, Rebecca; Edwards, Carrie; Sisler, Michelle

    This packet contains a unit on teaching about volcanoes. The following question is addressed: How do volcanoes affect human life? The unit covers approximately three weeks of instruction and strives to present volcanoes in an holistic form. The five subject areas of art, language arts, mathematics, science, and social studies are integrated into…

  10. Predicting the Timing and Location of the next Hawaiian Volcano (United States)

    Russo, Joseph; Mattox, Stephen; Kildau, Nicole


    The wealth of geologic data on Hawaiian volcanoes makes them ideal for study by middle school students. In this paper the authors use existing data on the age and location of Hawaiian volcanoes to predict the location of the next Hawaiian volcano and when it will begin to grow on the floor of the Pacific Ocean. An inquiry-based lesson is also…

  11. Volcanoes muon imaging using Cherenkov telescopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catalano, O. [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Del Santo, M., E-mail: [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Mineo, T.; Cusumano, G.; Maccarone, M.C. [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Pareschi, G. [INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Via E. Bianchi 46, I-23807, Merate (Italy)


    A detailed understanding of a volcano inner structure is one of the key-points for the volcanic hazards evaluation. To this aim, in the last decade, geophysical radiography techniques using cosmic muon particles have been proposed. By measuring the differential attenuation of the muon flux as a function of the amount of rock crossed along different directions, it is possible to determine the density distribution of the interior of a volcano. Up to now, a number of experiments have been based on the detection of the muon tracks crossing hodoscopes, made up of scintillators or nuclear emulsion planes. Using telescopes based on the atmospheric Cherenkov imaging technique, we propose a new approach to study the interior of volcanoes detecting of the Cherenkov light produced by relativistic cosmic-ray muons that survive after crossing the volcano. The Cherenkov light produced along the muon path is imaged as a typical annular pattern containing all the essential information to reconstruct particle direction and energy. Our new approach offers the advantage of a negligible background and an improved spatial resolution. To test the feasibility of our new method, we have carried out simulations with a toy-model based on the geometrical parameters of ASTRI SST-2M, i.e. the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope currently under installation onto the Etna volcano. Comparing the results of our simulations with previous experiments based on particle detectors, we gain at least a factor of 10 in sensitivity. The result of this study shows that we resolve an empty cylinder with a radius of about 100 m located inside a volcano in less than 4 days, which implies a limit on the magma velocity of 5 m/h.

  12. Applications of geophysical methods to volcano monitoring (United States)

    Wynn, Jeff; Dzurisin, Daniel; Finn, Carol A.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Lahusen, Richard G.


    The array of geophysical technologies used in volcano hazards studies - some developed originally only for volcano monitoring - ranges from satellite remote sensing including InSAR to leveling and EDM surveys, campaign and telemetered GPS networks, electronic tiltmeters and strainmeters, airborne magnetic and electromagnetic surveys, short-period and broadband seismic monitoring, even microphones tuned for infrasound. They include virtually every method used in resource exploration except large-scale seismic reflection. By “geophysical ” we include both active and passive methods as well as geodetic technologies. Volcano monitoring incorporates telemetry to handle high-bandwith cameras and broadband seismometers. Critical geophysical targets include the flux of magma in shallow reservoir and lava-tube systems, changes in active hydrothermal systems, volcanic edifice stability, and lahars. Since the eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State in 1980, and the eruption at Pu’u O’o in Hawai’i beginning in 1983 and still continuing, dramatic advances have occurred in monitoring technology such as “crisis GIS” and lahar modeling, InSAR interferograms, as well as gas emission geochemistry sampling, and hazards mapping and eruption predictions. The on-going eruption of Mount St. Helens has led to new monitoring technologies, including advances in broadband Wi-Fi and satellite telemetry as well as new instrumentation. Assessment of the gap between adequate monitoring and threat at the 169 potentially dangerous Holocene volcanoes shows where populations are dangerously exposed to volcanic catastrophes in the United States and its territories . This paper focuses primarily on Hawai’ian volcanoes and the northern Pacific and Cascades volcanoes. The US Geological Survey, the US National Park System, and the University of Utah cooperate in a program to monitor the huge Yellowstone volcanic system, and a separate observatory monitors the restive Long Valley

  13. Volcanoes muon imaging using Cherenkov telescopes (United States)

    Catalano, O.; Del Santo, M.; Mineo, T.; Cusumano, G.; Maccarone, M. C.; Pareschi, G.


    A detailed understanding of a volcano inner structure is one of the key-points for the volcanic hazards evaluation. To this aim, in the last decade, geophysical radiography techniques using cosmic muon particles have been proposed. By measuring the differential attenuation of the muon flux as a function of the amount of rock crossed along different directions, it is possible to determine the density distribution of the interior of a volcano. Up to now, a number of experiments have been based on the detection of the muon tracks crossing hodoscopes, made up of scintillators or nuclear emulsion planes. Using telescopes based on the atmospheric Cherenkov imaging technique, we propose a new approach to study the interior of volcanoes detecting of the Cherenkov light produced by relativistic cosmic-ray muons that survive after crossing the volcano. The Cherenkov light produced along the muon path is imaged as a typical annular pattern containing all the essential information to reconstruct particle direction and energy. Our new approach offers the advantage of a negligible background and an improved spatial resolution. To test the feasibility of our new method, we have carried out simulations with a toy-model based on the geometrical parameters of ASTRI SST-2M, i.e. the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope currently under installation onto the Etna volcano. Comparing the results of our simulations with previous experiments based on particle detectors, we gain at least a factor of 10 in sensitivity. The result of this study shows that we resolve an empty cylinder with a radius of about 100 m located inside a volcano in less than 4 days, which implies a limit on the magma velocity of 5 m/h.

  14. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.


    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  15. A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke (United States)

    Liu, Jia C.; Pereira, Gavin; Uhl, Sarah A.; Bravo, Mercedes A.; Bell, Michelle L.


    Background Climate change is likely to increase threat of wildfires, and little is known about how wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future. Method We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research. Results We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM10, the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity. Conclusion Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating

  16. The origin of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvorak, John [University of Hawaii' s Institute for Astronomy (United States)


    I first stepped through the doorway of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1976, and I was impressed by what I saw: A dozen people working out of a stone-and-metal building perched at the edge of a high cliff with a spectacular view of a vast volcanic plain. Their primary purpose was to monitor the island's two active volcanoes, Kilauea and Mauna Loa. I joined them, working for six weeks as a volunteer and then, years later, as a staff scientist. That gave me several chances to ask how the observatory had started.

  17. Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Lisowski, Michael; Dzurisin, Daniel; Kramer, Rebecca; McLay, Megan; Pauk, Ben


    Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt. Several decades of geodetic data, however, tell a different story. Ground- and space-based deformation studies have identified surface displacements at five of the 13 major Cascade arc volcanoes that lie in the USA (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, South Sister, Medicine Lake, and Lassen volcanic center). No deformation has been detected at five volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Newberry Volcano, Crater Lake, and Mount Shasta), and there are not sufficient data at the remaining three (Glacier Peak, Mount Adams, and Mount Jefferson) for a rigorous assessment. In addition, gravity change has been measured at two of the three locations where surveys have been repeated (Mount St. Helens and Mount Baker show changes, while South Sister does not). Broad deformation patterns associated with heavily forested and ice-clad Cascade volcanoes are generally characterized by low displacement rates, in the range of millimeters to a few centimeters per year, and are overprinted by larger tectonic motions of several centimeters per year. Continuous GPS is therefore the best means of tracking temporal changes in deformation of Cascade volcanoes and also for characterizing tectonic signals so that they may be distinguished from volcanic sources. Better spatial resolution of volcano deformation can be obtained through the use of campaign GPS, semipermanent GPS, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, which leverage the accumulation of displacements over time to improve signal to noise. Deformation source mechanisms in the Cascades are diverse and include magma accumulation and withdrawal, post-emplacement cooling of recent volcanic deposits, magmatic

  18. Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA (United States)

    Poland, Michael; Lisowski, Michael; Dzurisin, Daniel; Kramer, Rebecca; McLay, Megan; Pauk, Benjamin


    Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt. Several decades of geodetic data, however, tell a different story. Ground- and space-based deformation studies have identified surface displacements at five of the 13 major Cascade arc volcanoes that lie in the USA (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, South Sister, Medicine Lake, and Lassen volcanic center). No deformation has been detected at five volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Newberry Volcano, Crater Lake, and Mount Shasta), and there are not sufficient data at the remaining three (Glacier Peak, Mount Adams, and Mount Jefferson) for a rigorous assessment. In addition, gravity change has been measured at two of the three locations where surveys have been repeated (Mount St. Helens and Mount Baker show changes, while South Sister does not). Broad deformation patterns associated with heavily forested and ice-clad Cascade volcanoes are generally characterized by low displacement rates, in the range of millimeters to a few centimeters per year, and are overprinted by larger tectonic motions of several centimeters per year. Continuous GPS is therefore the best means of tracking temporal changes in deformation of Cascade volcanoes and also for characterizing tectonic signals so that they may be distinguished from volcanic sources. Better spatial resolution of volcano deformation can be obtained through the use of campaign GPS, semipermanent GPS, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, which leverage the accumulation of displacements over time to improve signal to noise. Deformation source mechanisms in the Cascades are diverse and include magma accumulation and withdrawal, post-emplacement cooling of recent volcanic deposits, magmatic

  19. K-Pg Wildfires: modeling, experiments and observations (United States)

    Morgan, J.; Artemieva, N.; Belcher, C.; Hadden, R.; Rein, G.; Goldin, T.


    The discovery of soot in K-Pg boundary clays [1] started a long debate about whether the asteroid impact ignited global wildfires. The K-Pg layer is formed from material ejected from the Chicxulub site, which travelled at hypervelocities around the world. When such ejecta re-enters the Earth's atmosphere it decelerates and heats up, and delivers a pulse of radiation to the Earth's surface. Recent estimates of the radiation associated with ejecta re-entry [2] are argued to be large enough to have ignited fires globally [3]. Here, we present new 3D models of the thermal pulse that takes in to account the asymmetric distribution of ejecta, which depends on the angle and direction of the Chicxulub impact [4]. We have replicated some of the modeled thermal pulses with a Fire propagation Apparatus (FPA), to investigate their effect on both dry and living plant matter. The models, experiments and observational data are consistent with some wildfires being ignited as a direct result of the impact, but the mass flux of ejecta at sites uprange of Chicxulub is too low to ignite even the most susceptible of plant matter.

  20. Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Drews


    Full Text Available Improving community resiliency to wildfire is a challenging problem in the face of ongoing development in fire-prone regions. Evacuation and shelter-in-place are the primary options for reducing wildfire casualties, but it can be difficult to determine which option offers the most protection in urgent scenarios. Although guidelines and policies have been proposed to inform this decision, a formal approach to evaluating protective options would help advance protective-action theory. We present an optimization model based on the premise that protecting a community can be viewed as assigning threatened households to one of three actions: evacuation, shelter-in-refuge, or shelter-in-home. While evacuation generally offers the highest level of life protection, it can place residents at greater risk when little time is available. This leads to complex trade-offs involving expected fire intensity, available time, and the quality and accessibility of in-place shelter. An application of the model is presented to illustrate a range of issues that can arise across scenarios.

  1. A transport model for computer simulation of wildfires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, R. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)


    Realistic self-determining simulation of wildfires is a difficult task because of a large variety of important length scales (including scales on the size of twigs or grass and the size of large trees), imperfect data, complex fluid mechanics and heat transfer, and very complicated chemical reactions. The author uses a transport approach to produce a model that exhibits a self-determining propagation rate. The transport approach allows him to represent a large number of environments such as those with nonhomogeneous vegetation and terrain. He accounts for the microscopic details of a fire with macroscopic resolution by dividing quantities into mean and fluctuating parts similar to what is done in traditional turbulence modeling. These divided quantities include fuel, wind, gas concentrations, and temperature. Reaction rates are limited by the mixing process and not the chemical kinetics. The author has developed a model that includes the transport of multiple gas species, such as oxygen and volatile hydrocarbons, and tracks the depletion of various fuels and other stationary solids and liquids. From this model he develops a simplified local burning model with which he performs a number of simulations that demonstrate that he is able to capture the important physics with the transport approach. With this simplified model he is able to pick up the essence of wildfire propagation, including such features as acceleration when transitioning to upsloping terrain, deceleration of fire fronts when they reach downslopes, and crowning in the presence of high winds.

  2. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.


    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  3. Volcano shapes, entropies, and eruption probabilities (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Agust; Mohajeri, Nahid


    We propose that the shapes of polygenetic volcanic edifices reflect the shapes of the associated probability distributions of eruptions. In this view, the peak of a given volcanic edifice coincides roughly with the peak of the probability (or frequency) distribution of its eruptions. The broadness and slopes of the edifices vary widely, however. The shapes of volcanic edifices can be approximated by various distributions, either discrete (binning or histogram approximation) or continuous. For a volcano shape (profile) approximated by a normal curve, for example, the broadness would be reflected in its standard deviation (spread). Entropy (S) of a discrete probability distribution is a measure of the absolute uncertainty as to the next outcome/message: in this case, the uncertainty as to time and place of the next eruption. A uniform discrete distribution (all bins of equal height), representing a flat volcanic field or zone, has the largest entropy or uncertainty. For continuous distributions, we use differential entropy, which is a measure of relative uncertainty, or uncertainty change, rather than absolute uncertainty. Volcano shapes can be approximated by various distributions, from which the entropies and thus the uncertainties as regards future eruptions can be calculated. We use the Gibbs-Shannon formula for the discrete entropies and the analogues general formula for the differential entropies and compare their usefulness for assessing the probabilities of eruptions in volcanoes. We relate the entropies to the work done by the volcano during an eruption using the Helmholtz free energy. Many factors other than the frequency of eruptions determine the shape of a volcano. These include erosion, landslides, and the properties of the erupted materials (including their angle of repose). The exact functional relation between the volcano shape and the eruption probability distribution must be explored for individual volcanoes but, once established, can be used to

  4. Assessing wildfire occurrence probability in Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, S.; Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Botequim, B.; Ricardo, A.; Borges, J. G.; Tome, M.; Oliveira, M. M.


    Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometrics data from the NFI. Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfires. (Author) 57 refs.

  5. Facing a dark winter. Albania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Truijen, A.


    Albania is once again facing a dark winter. The country has already been suffering power cuts lasting a couple of hours a day for the past seventeen years, Drought, increased power consumption and political maladministration are the factors underlying the electricity problems that have now mushroomed into a national crisis.

  6. Eikenprocessierups doorstaat koude winter goed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, S.


    Eikenprocessierupsen zijn niet gedeerd door de langdurige koude van deze winter. Bij het opensnijden van eipakketjes blijken de rupsjes springlevend naar buiten te komen. Het is nog te vroeg om nu al iets te zeggen over de mogelijke overlast later dit jaar. Dat is afhankelijk van de weersomstandighe

  7. Learning through a Winter's Tale (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie


    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this experience,…

  8. Growth and degradation of Hawaiian volcanoes: Chapter 3 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes (United States)

    Clague, David A.; Sherrod, David R.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.


    The 19 known shield volcanoes of the main Hawaiian Islands—15 now emergent, 3 submerged, and 1 newly born and still submarine—lie at the southeast end of a long-lived hot spot chain. As the Pacific Plate of the Earth’s lithosphere moves slowly northwestward over the Hawaiian hot spot, volcanoes are successively born above it, evolve as they drift away from it, and eventually die and subside beneath the ocean surface.

  9. Amphibian responses to wildfire in the western united states: Emerging patterns from short-term studies (United States)

    Hossack, B.R.; Pilliod, D.S.


    The increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western United States is an important ecological and management issue with direct relevance to amphibian conservation. Although the knowledge of fire effects on amphibians in the region is still limited relative to most other vertebrate species, we reviewed the current literature to determine if there are evident patterns that might be informative for conservation or management strategies. Of the seven studies that compared pre- and post-wildfire data on a variety of metrics, ranging from amphibian occupancy to body condition, two reported positive responses and five detected negative responses by at least one species. Another seven studies used a retrospective approach to compare effects of wildfire on populations: two studies reported positive effects, three reported negative effects from wildfire, and two reported no effects. All four studies that included plethodontid salamanders reported negative effects on populations or individuals; these effects were greater in forests where fire had been suppressed and in areas that burned with high severity. Species that breed in streams are also vulnerable to post-wildfire changes in habitat, especially in the Southwest. Wildfire is also important for maintaining suitable habitat for diverse amphibian communities, although those results may not be evident immediately after an area burns. We expect that wildfire will extirpate few healthy amphibian populations, but it is still unclear how populations will respond to wildfire in the context of land management (including pre- and post-fire timber harvest) and fragmentation. Wildfire may also increase the risk of decline or extirpation for small, isolated, or stressed (e.g., from drought or disease) populations. Improved understanding of how these effects vary according to changes in fire frequency and severity are critical to form more effective conservation strategies for amphibians in the western United States.

  10. Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Corn, Paul Stephen


    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region.

  11. Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire. (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R; Lowe, Winsor H; Corn, Paul Stephen


    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region.

  12. Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. (United States)

    Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E; Harvey, Brian J; Krawchuk, Meg A; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G; Whitlock, Cathy


    Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

  13. Muons reveal the interior of volcanoes

    CERN Multimedia

    Francesco Poppi


    The MU-RAY project has the very challenging aim of providing a “muon X-ray” of the Vesuvius volcano (Italy) using a detector that records the muons hitting it after traversing the rock structures of the volcano. This technique was used for the first time in 1971 by the Nobel Prize-winner Louis Alvarez, who was searching for unknown burial chambers in the Chephren pyramid.   The location of the muon detector on the slopes of the Vesuvius volcano. Like X-ray scans of the human body, muon radiography allows researchers to obtain an image of the internal structures of the upper levels of volcanoes. Although such an image cannot help to predict ‘when’ an eruption might occur, it can, if combined with other observations, help to foresee ‘how’ it could develop and serves as a powerful tool for the study of geological structures. Muons come from the interaction of cosmic rays with the Earth's atmosphere. They are able to traverse layers of ro...

  14. The reawakening of Alaska's Augustine volcano (United States)

    Power, John A.; Nye, Christopher J.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Wessels, Rick L.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Dehn, Jon; Wallace, Kristi L.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.; Doukas, Michael P.


    Augustine volcano, in south central Alaska, ended a 20-year period of repose on 11 January 2006 with 13 explosive eruptions in 20 days. Explosive activity shifted to a quieter effusion of lava in early February, forming a new summit lava dome and two short, blocky lava flows by late March (Figure 1).

  15. Volcano hazards at Fuego and Acatenango, Guatemala (United States)

    Vallance, J.W.; Schilling, S.P.; Matías, O.; Rose, William I.; Howell, M.M.


    The Fuego-Acatenango massif comprises a string of five or more volcanic vents along a north-south trend that is perpendicular to that of the Central American arc in Guatemala. From north to south known centers of volcanism are Ancient Acatenango, Yepocapa, Pico Mayor de Acatenango, Meseta, and Fuego. Volcanism along the trend stretches back more than 200,000 years. Although many of the centers have been active contemporaneously, there is a general sequence of younger volcanism, from north to south along the trend. This massive volcano complex towers more than 3500 meters (m) above the Pacific coastal plain to the south and 2000 m above the Guatemalan Highlands to the north. The volcano complex comprises remnants of multiple eruptive centers, which periodically have collapsed to form huge debris avalanches. The largest of these avalanches extended more than 50 kilometers (km) from its source and covered more than 300 square km. The volcano has potential to produce huge debris avalanches that could inundate large areas of the Pacific coastal plain. In areas around the volcanoes and downslope toward the coastal plain, more than 100,000 people are potentially at risk from these and other flowage phenomena.

  16. New volcanoes discovered in southeast Australia (United States)

    Wendel, JoAnna


    Scientists have discovered three new active volcanoes in the Newer Volcanics Province (NVP) in southeast Australia. Researchers from Monash University in Melbourne describe in the Australian Journal of Earth Sciences how they used a combination of satellite photographs, detailed topography models from NASA, the distribution of magnetic minerals in the rocks, and site visits to analyze the region.

  17. Carbonate assimilation at Merapi volcano, Java Indonesia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chadwick, J.P; Troll, V.R; Ginibre,, C.


    Recent basaltic andesite lavas from Merapi volcano contain abundant, complexly zoned, plagioclase phenocrysts, analysed here for their petrographic textures, major element composition and Sr isotope composition. Anorthite (An) content in individual crystals can vary by as much as 55 mol% (An40^95...

  18. Degassing and differentiation in subglacial volcanoes, Iceland (United States)

    Moore, J.G.; Calk, L.C.


    Within the neovolcanic zones of Iceland many volcanoes grew upward through icecaps that have subsequently melted. These steep-walled and flat-topped basaltic subglacial volcanoes, called tuyas, are composed of a lower sequence of subaqueously erupted, pillowed lavas overlain by breccias and hyaloclastites produced by phreatomagmatic explosions in shallow water, capped by a subaerially erupted lava plateau. Glass and whole-rock analyses of samples collected from six tuyas indicate systematic variations in major elements showing that the individual volcanoes are monogenetic, and that commonly the tholeiitic magmas differentiated and became more evolved through the course of the eruption that built the tuya. At Herdubreid, the most extensively studies tuya, the upward change in composition indicates that more than 50 wt.% of the first erupted lavas need crystallize over a range of 60??C to produce the last erupted lavas. The S content of glass commonly decreases upward in the tuyas from an average of about 0.08 wt.% at the base to crystallization that generates the more evolved, lower-temperature melts during the growth of the tuyas, apparently results from cooling and degassing of magma contained in shallow magma chambers and feeders beneath the volcanoes. Cooling may result from percolation of meltwater down cracks, vaporization, and cycling in a hydrothermal circulation. Degassing occurs when progressively lower pressure eruption (as the volcanic vent grows above the ice/water surface) lowers the volatile vapour pressure of subsurface melt, thus elevating the temperature of the liquidus and hastening liquid-crystal differentiation. ?? 1991.

  19. Application of Wildfire Risk Assessment Results to Wildfire Response Planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew P. Thompson


    Full Text Available How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident response planning consistent with these principles. We contextualize this framework in relation to a wildland fire management continuum based on federal fire management policy in the U.S. The framework leverages recent advancements in spatial wildfire risk assessment—notably the joint concepts of in situ risk and source risk—and integrates assessment results with additional geospatial information to develop and map strategic response zones. We operationalize this framework in a geographic information system (GIS environment based on landscape attributes relevant to fire operations, and define Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations (PODs as the spatial unit of analysis for strategic response. Using results from a recent risk assessment performed on several National Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada area of California, USA, we illustrate how POD-level summaries of risk metrics can reduce uncertainty surrounding potential losses and benefits given large fire occurrence, and lend themselves naturally to design of fire and fuel management strategies. To conclude we identify gaps, limitations, and uncertainties, and prioritize future work to support safe and effective incident response.

  20. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.


    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  1. Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century (United States)

    Nieradzik, Lars Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep G.; Smith, Ben


    Wildfires and their emissions are key biospheric processes in the modeling of the carbon cycle that still are insufficiently understood. In Australia, fire emissions constitute a large flux of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere of approximately 1.3 times larger than the annual fossil fuel emissions. In addition, fire plays a big role in determining the composition of vegetation which in turn affects land-atmosphere fluxes. Annualy, up to 4% of the vegetated land-surface area is burned which amounts to up to 3% of global NPP and results in the reslease of about 2 Pg carbon into the atmosphere. There are indications that burned area has decreased globally over recent decades but so far there is not a clear trend in the development in fire-intensity and fuel availability. Net emissions from wildfires are not generally included in global and regional carbon budgets, because it is assumed that gross fire emissions are in balance with post-fire carbon uptake by recovering vegetation. This is a valid assumption as long as climate and fire regimes are in equilibrium, but not when the climate and other drivers are changing. We present a study on the behaviour of wildfires on the Australian continent over the last century (1911 - 2012) introducing the novel fire model BLAZE (BLAZe induced biosphere-atmosphere flux Estimator) that has been designed to address the feedbacks between climate, fuel loads, and fires. BLAZE is used within the Australian land-surface model CABLE (Community Atmophere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). The study shows two significant outcomes: A regional shift in fire patterns shift during this century due to fire suppression and greening effects as well as an increase of potential fire-line intensity (the risk that a fire becomes more intense), especially in regions where most of Australia's population resides. This strongly emphasises the need to further investigate fire dynamics under future climate scenarios. The fire model BLAZE has been

  2. An important fingerprint of wildfires on the European aerosol load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Barnaba


    Full Text Available Wildland fires represent the major source of fine aerosols, i.e., atmospheric particles with diameters <1 μm. The largest numbers of these fires occur in Africa, Asia and South America, but a not negligible fraction also occurs in Eastern Europe and former USSR countries, particularly in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Besides the impact of large forest fires, recent studies also highlighted the crucial role played by routine agricultural fires in Eastern Europe and Russia on the Arctic atmosphere. An evaluation of the impact of these fires over Europe is currently not available. The assessment of the relative contribution of fires to the European aerosol burden is hampered by the complex mixing of natural and anthropogenic particle types across the continent. In this study we use long term (2002–2007 satellite-based fires and aerosol data coupled to atmospheric trajectory modelling in the attempt to estimate the wildfires contribution to the European aerosol optical thickness (AOT. Based on this dataset, we provide evidence that fires-related aerosols play a major role in shaping the AOT yearly cycle at the continental scale. In general, the regions most impacted by wildfires emissions and/or transport are Eastern and Central Europe as well as Scandinavia. Conversely, a minor impact is found in Western Europe and in the Western Mediterranean. We estimate that in spring 5 to 35% of the European fine fraction AOT (FFAOT is attributable to wildland fires. The estimated impact maximizes in April (20–35% in Eastern and Central Europe as well as in Scandinavia and in the Central Mediterranean. An important contribution of wildfires to the FFAOT is also found in summer over most of the continent, particularly in August over Eastern Europe (28% and the Mediterranean regions, from Turkey (34% to the Western Mediterranean (25%. Although preliminary, our results suggest that this fires-related, continent-wide haze plays a not

  3. Nulhegan Deer Wintering Area Management Plan 1994 (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Within the Nulhegan basin lies the Nulhegan Deer Wintering Area, an approximately 15,000-acre tract of land. In addition to being the largest deer wintering area in...

  4. Mexican Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Mexican Mid-winter Waterfowl Survey is a continuation of the annual winter waterfowl survey which is conducted in the United States and Mexico. Since the...

  5. Space Radar Image of Colombian Volcano (United States)


    This is a radar image of a little known volcano in northern Colombia. The image was acquired on orbit 80 of space shuttle Endeavour on April 14, 1994, by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR). The volcano near the center of the image is located at 5.6 degrees north latitude, 75.0 degrees west longitude, about 100 kilometers (65 miles) southeast of Medellin, Colombia. The conspicuous dark spot is a lake at the bottom of an approximately 3-kilometer-wide (1.9-mile) volcanic collapse depression or caldera. A cone-shaped peak on the bottom left (northeast rim) of the caldera appears to have been the source for a flow of material into the caldera. This is the northern-most known volcano in South America and because of its youthful appearance, should be considered dormant rather than extinct. The volcano's existence confirms a fracture zone proposed in 1985 as the northern boundary of volcanism in the Andes. The SIR-C/X-SAR image reveals another, older caldera further south in Colombia, along another proposed fracture zone. Although relatively conspicuous, these volcanoes have escaped widespread recognition because of frequent cloud cover that hinders remote sensing imaging in visible wavelengths. Four separate volcanoes in the Northern Andes nations ofColombia and Ecuador have been active during the last 10 years, killing more than 25,000 people, including scientists who were monitoring the volcanic activity. Detection and monitoring of volcanoes from space provides a safe way to investigate volcanism. The recognition of previously unknown volcanoes is important for hazard evaluations because a number of major eruptions this century have occurred at mountains that were not previously recognized as volcanoes. Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of

  6. Wildfire simulation using LES with synthetic-velocity SGS models (United States)

    McDonough, J. M.; Tang, Tingting


    Wildland fires are becoming more prevalent and intense worldwide as climate change leads to warmer, drier conditions; and large-eddy simulation (LES) is receiving increasing attention for fire spread predictions as computing power continues to improve (see, e.g.,). We report results from wildfire simulations over general terrain employing implicit LES for solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes (N.-S.) and thermal energy equations with Boussinesq approximation, altered with Darcy, Forchheimer and Brinkman extensions, to represent forested regions as porous media with varying (in both space and time) porosity and permeability. We focus on subgrid-scale (SGS) behaviors computed with a synthetic-velocity model, a discrete dynamical system, based on the poor man's N.-S. equations and investigate the ability of this model to produce fire whirls (tornadoes of fire) at the (unresolved) SGS level. Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Mathematics.

  7. Initial observations on using SAR to monitor wildfire scars in boreal forests (United States)

    Kasischke, E. S.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; French, N. H. F.; Harrell, P.; Christensen, N. L., Jr.


    Initial observations on the effects of wildfires in black spruce forests on radar backscatter are presented. Airborne and spaceborne SAR imagery are utilized to illustrate two distinct fire signatures. A theory is presented to explain these differences.

  8. A Constraint-Based Geospatial Data Integration System for Wildfire Management Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to implement a constraint-based data integration system for wildfire intelligence, for use during both the pre-planning and event response phases of...

  9. Effects of the 1976 Seney National Wildlife Refuge wildfire on wildlife and wildlife habitat (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — In the summer of 1976 a wildfire burned 260 square-km on the Seney National Wildlife Refuge in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service...

  10. Compilation of Studies Assessing Post Wildfire Seeding of Rangelands Worldwide, 1965-2010 (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Mitigation of ecological damage caused by rangeland wildfires has historically been an issue restricted to the western United States. It has focused on conservation...

  11. Biophyiscal settings and wildfire frequencies in the Colorado Desert ecological section of California, 1984 to 2013 (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This raster dataset contains biophysical settings (band 1) and wildfire frequencies (band 2) within the Colorado Desert ecological section of California. Biophysical...

  12. Rapid Recovery of an Urban Remnant Reptile Community following Summer Wildfire: e0127925

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robert A Davis; Tim S Doherty


    .... We monitored the recovery of an urban reptile community for five years following a summer wildfire at Kings Park in Perth, Western Australia, using pitfall trapping at five burnt and five unburnt sites...

  13. Distribution and correlation analysis of wildfire and weather data in Japan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Weiguo; WANG Jian; Kohyu SATOH


    To establish the wildfire danger rating system, detailed data of wildfire and some related parameters such as weather,population and tree species are required. In this paper, the raw data of weather parameters in Japan are first expanded into more detailed data. The daily value of each weather parameter in each third-level mesh, which is about 1 km × 1 km in size, from year 1999 to 2000 is calculated by means of inverse distance weighted interpolation. Expansion results for third-level meshes are demonstrated. Fire probability for each parameter is calculated and analyzed. It is found that the dependency relation of fire probability on some parameters have surprisingly regular format. The data calculated and analyzed in the paper and the results may act as a basic database for wildfire researchers, and are expected to promote the study of wildfire danger rating method and the development of such systems.

  14. Combined wildfire dataset for the United States and certain territories, 1870-2015 (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The increase in wildfires, particularly in the western U.S., represents one of the greatest threats to multiple native ecosystems. Despite this threat, there is...

  15. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface. (United States)

    Calkin, David E; Cohen, Jack D; Finney, Mark A; Thompson, Matthew P


    Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference. These fires are consistent with the characteristics of large, damaging, interface fires that threaten communities across much of the western United States. Wildfires are inevitable, but the destruction of homes, ecosystems, and lives is not. We propose the principles of risk analysis to provide land management agencies, first responders, and affected communities who face the inevitability of wildfires the ability to reduce the potential for loss. Overcoming perceptions of wildland-urban interface fire disasters as a wildfire control problem rather than a home ignition problem, determined by home ignition conditions, will reduce home loss.

  16. Common processes at unique volcanoes – a volcanological conundrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine eCashman


    Full Text Available An emerging challenge in modern volcanology is the apparent contradiction between the perception that every volcano is unique, and classification systems based on commonalities among volcano morphology and eruptive style. On the one hand, detailed studies of individual volcanoes show that a single volcano often exhibits similar patterns of behaviour over multiple eruptive episodes; this observation has led to the idea that each volcano has its own distinctive pattern of behaviour (or personality. In contrast, volcano classification schemes define eruption styles referenced to type volcanoes (e.g. Plinian, Strombolian, Vulcanian; this approach implicitly assumes that common processes underpin volcanic activity and can be used to predict the nature, extent and ensuing hazards of individual volcanoes. Actual volcanic eruptions, however, often include multiple styles, and type volcanoes may experience atypical eruptions (e.g., violent explosive eruptions of Kilauea, Hawaii1. The volcanological community is thus left with a fundamental conundrum that pits the uniqueness of individual volcanic systems against generalization of common processes. Addressing this challenge represents a major challenge to volcano research.

  17. Winter cover crops influence Amaranthus palmeri establishment (United States)

    Winter cover crops were evaluated for their effect on Palmer amaranth (PA) suppression in cotton production. Cover crops examined included rye and four winter legumes: narrow-leaf lupine, crimson clover, Austrian winter pea, and cahaba vetch. Each legume was evaluated alone and in a mixture with rye...

  18. A Collaborative Decision Environment to Support UAV Wildfire Monitoring Missions (United States)

    Frost, C. R.; Enomoto, F. Y.; D'Ortenzio, M. V.; Nguyen, Q. B.


    NASA developed the Collaborative Decision Environment (CDE), the ground-based component of its Intelligent Mission Management (IMM) technology for science missions employing long endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The CDE was used to support science mission planning and decision-making for a NASA- and U.S. Forest Service-sponsored mission to monitor wildfires in the western United States using a multi- spectral imager flown onboard the General Atomics Altair UAV in summer of 2006. The CDE is a ground-based system that provides the mission/science team with situational awareness, collaboration, and decision tools. The CDE is used for pre-flight planning, mission monitoring, and visualization of acquired data. It integrates external data products used for planning and executing a mission, such as weather, large wildfire locations, satellite-derived fire detection data, temporarily restricted airspace, and satellite imagery. While a prototype CDE was developed as a Java-based client/server application in 2004-2005, the team investigated the use of Google Earth to take advantage of its 3-D visualization capabilities, friendly user interface, and enhanced graphics performance. External data is acquired via the Internet by leveraging established and emerging Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and is re-formatted into the Keyhole Markup Language (KML) specification used by Google Earth. Aircraft flight position and sensor data products are relayed from the instrument ground station to CDE servers where they are made available to users. An instant messaging chat server is used to facilitate real-time communication between remote users. This paper will present an overview of the CDE system architecture, and discuss how science user input was crucial to shaping and developing the system. Examples from the UAV mission will be used to illustrate the presentation. Plans for future development work to improve mission operations, such as integration with

  19. Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps (United States)

    Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa


    Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de

  20. Suspended sediment transport in an ephemeral stream following wildfire (United States)

    Malmon, D.V.; Reneau, S.L.; Katzman, D.; Lavine, A.; Lyman, J.


    We examine the impacts of a stand-clearing wildfire on the characteristics and magnitude of suspended sediment transport in ephemeral streams draining the burn area. We report the results of a monitoring program that includes 2 years of data prior to the Cerro Grande fire in New Mexico, and 3 years of postfire data. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) increased by about 2 orders of magnitude following the fire, and the proportion of silt and clay increased from 50% to 80%. For a given flow event, SSC is highest at the flood bore and decreases monotonically with time, a pattern evident in every flood sampled both before and after the fire. We propose that the accumulation of flow and wash load at the flow front is an inherent characteristic of ephemeral stream flows, due to amplified momentum losses at the flood bore. We present a new model for computing suspended sediment transport in ephemeral streams (in the presence or absence of wildfire) by relating SSC to the time following the arrival of the flood bore, rather than to instantaneous discharge. Using this model and a rainfall history, we estimate that in the 3 years following the fire, floods transported in suspension a mass equivalent to about 3 mm of landscape lowering across the burn area, 20% of this following a single rainstorm. We test the model by computing fine sediment delivery to a small reservoir in an adjacent watershed, where we have a detailed record of postfire sedimentation based on repeat surveys. Systematic discrepancies between modeled and measured sedimentation rates in the reservoir suggest rapid reductions in suspended sediment delivery in the first several years after the fire.

  1. The Effects of Wildfire on Soil Moisture Dynamics (United States)

    Kanarek, M.; Cardenas, M.


    Moisture dynamics in the critical zone have significant implications for a variety of hydrologic processes, from water availability to plants to infiltration and groundwater recharge rates. These processes are perturbed by events such as wildfires, which may have long-lasting impacts. In September 2011, the most destructive wildfire in Texas history occurred in and around Bastrop State Park, which was significantly affected; thus we take advantage of a rare opportunity to study soil moisture under such burned conditions. A 165 m long transect bridging burned and unburned areas was established within the 'Lost Pines' of the park. Soil moisture and soil temperature were monitored and estimated using a variety of methods, including 2D electrical resistivity imaging (using dipole-dipole and Schlumberger configurations), surface permittivity measurements (ThetaProbe), permittivity-based soil moisture profiling (PR2 profile probes), and installation of thermistors. Field measurements were collected at approximately one-month intervals to study temporal and seasonal effects on soil moisture and temperature in this area. Greater soil moisture and lower resistivity were found near the surface at the heavily burned end of the transect, where trees have been largely killed by the fire and grasses now dominate, and very low near-surface soil moisture and higher resistivity were found at the opposite end, which is still populated by pine trees. These variations can likely be attributed to the vegetative variations between the two ends of the transect, with trees consuming more water at one end and the ground cover of grasses and mosses consuming less water and helping reduce evaporation at the burned end. Higher clay content at the burned end of the transect could also be a factor in greater soil moisture retention there. Given the higher moisture content throughout the soil profile at the heavily burned end of the transect, this could be an indication of greater infiltration

  2. How wild is your model fire? Constraining WRF-Chem wildfire smoke simulations with satellite observations (United States)

    Fischer, E. V.; Ford, B.; Lassman, W.; Pierce, J. R.; Pfister, G.; Volckens, J.; Magzamen, S.; Gan, R.


    Exposure to high concentrations of particulate matter (PM) present during acute pollution events is associated with adverse health effects. While many anthropogenic pollution sources are regulated in the United States, emissions from wildfires are difficult to characterize and control. With wildfire frequency and intensity in the western U.S. projected to increase, it is important to more precisely determine the effect that wildfire emissions have on human health, and whether improved forecasts of these air pollution events can mitigate the health risks associated with wildfires. One of the challenges associated with determining health risks associated with wildfire emissions is that the low spatial resolution of surface monitors means that surface measurements may not be representative of a population's exposure, due to steep concentration gradients. To obtain better estimates of ambient exposure levels for health studies, a chemical transport model (CTM) can be used to simulate the evolution of a wildfire plume as it travels over populated regions downwind. Improving the performance of a CTM would allow the development of a new forecasting framework that could better help decision makers estimate and potentially mitigate future health impacts. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate wildfire plume evolution. By varying the model resolution, meteorology reanalysis initial conditions, and biomass burning inventories, we are able to explore the sensitivity of model simulations to these various parameters. Satellite observations are used first to evaluate model skill, and then to constrain the model results. These data are then used to estimate population-level exposure, with the aim of better characterizing the effects that wildfire emissions have on human health.

  3. Wildfires in Galicia: causality, forest policy and risk in forest management


    Barreal Pernas, Jesús


    Forestlands are one of the most important environmental resources. If a better conservation and management was achieved, then the social welfare and economic wealth would be higher. To obtain a better forest conservation, wildfires can be prevented by public policies. The first chapter of this thesis is focused on providing suggestions to improve the current public policies in order to reduce the wildfire occurrence. In this chapter spatial econometric models are developed in order to analyse...

  4. Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes (United States)

    Moody, John A.; Shakesby, Richard A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Cannon, Susan H.; Martin, Deborah A.


    Research into post-wildfire effects began in the United States more than 70 years ago and only later extended to other parts of the world. Post-wildfire responses are typically transient, episodic, variable in space and time, dependent on thresholds, and involve multiple processes measured by different methods. These characteristics tend to hinder research progress, but the large empirical knowledge base amassed in different regions of the world suggests that it should now be possible to synthesize the data and make a substantial improvement in the understanding of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response. Thus, it is important to identify and prioritize the research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion. Priority research issues are the need to: (1) organize and synthesize similarities and differences in post-wildfire responses between different fire-prone regions of the world in order to determine common patterns and generalities that can explain cause and effect relations; (2) identify and quantify functional relations between metrics of fire effects and soil hydraulic properties that will better represent the dynamic and transient conditions after a wildfire; (3) determine the interaction between burned landscapes and temporally and spatially variable meso-scale precipitation, which is often the primary driver of post-wildfire runoff and erosion responses; (4) determine functional relations between precipitation, basin morphology, runoff connectivity, contributing area, surface roughness, depression storage, and soil characteristics required to predict the timing, magnitudes, and duration of floods and debris flows from ungaged burned basins; and (5) develop standard measurement methods that will ensure the collection of uniform and comparable runoff and erosion data. Resolution of these issues will help to improve conceptual and computer models of post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes.

  5. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia


    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder


    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectorie...

  6. Early Life Wildfire Smoke Exposure Is Associated with Immune Dysregulation and Lung Function Decrements in Adolescence. (United States)

    Black, Carolyn; Gerriets, Joan E; Fontaine, Justin H; Harper, Richart W; Kenyon, Nicholas J; Tablin, Fern; Schelegle, Edward S; Miller, Lisa A


    The long-term health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in pediatric populations are not known. The objectives of this study were to determine if early life exposure to wildfire smoke can affect parameters of immunity and airway physiology that are detectable with maturity. We studied a mixed-sex cohort of rhesus macaque monkeys that were exposed as infants to ambient wood smoke from a series of Northern California wildfires in the summer of 2008. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and pulmonary function measures were obtained when animals were approximately 3 years of age. PBMCs were cultured with either LPS or flagellin, followed by measurement of secreted IL-8 and IL-6 protein. PBMCs from a subset of female animals were also evaluated by Toll-like receptor (TLR) pathway mRNA analysis. Induction of IL-8 protein synthesis with either LPS or flagellin was significantly reduced in PBMC cultures from wildfire smoke-exposed female monkeys. In contrast, LPS- or flagellin-induced IL-6 protein synthesis was significantly reduced in PBMC cultures from wildfire smoke-exposed male monkeys. Baseline and TLR ligand-induced expression of the transcription factor, RelB, was globally modulated in PBMCs from wildfire smoke-exposed monkeys, with additional TLR pathway genes affected in a ligand-dependent manner. Wildfire smoke-exposed monkeys displayed significantly reduced inspiratory capacity, residual volume, vital capacity, functional residual capacity, and total lung capacity per unit of body weight relative to control animals. Our findings suggest that ambient wildfire smoke exposure during infancy results in sex-dependent attenuation of systemic TLR responses and reduced lung volume in adolescence.

  7. Early Paleogene wildfires in peat-forming environments at Schöningen, Germany


    Robson, Brittany E.; Collinson, Margaret E.; Riegel, Walter; Wilde, Volker; Scott, Andrew C.; Pancost, Richard D.


    Wildfire activity in early Paleogene greenhouse conditions can be used as an analogue to gauge the effect of future warming trends on wildfire in the current climate system. Inertinite (fossil charcoal in coal) from 11 autochthonous early Paleogene lignite seams from the Schöningen mine (Germany) was quantified using macerations, in situ pillars and industry standard crushed samples. A new three transect method was developed to quantify in situ charcoal. The combination of in situ pillars and...

  8. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies (United States)


    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

  9. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies. (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang


    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  10. Darwin's triggering mechanism of volcano eruptions (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil


    Charles Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…' and ‘…a power, I may remark, which acts in paroxysmal upheavals like that of Concepcion, and in great volcanic eruptions,…'. Darwin reports that ‘…several of the great chimneys in the Cordillera of central Chile commenced a fresh period of activity ….' In particular, Darwin reported on four-simultaneous large eruptions from the following volcanoes: Robinson Crusoe, Minchinmavida, Cerro Yanteles and Peteroa (we cite the Darwin's sentences following his The Voyage of the Beagle and researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). Let us consider these eruptions taking into account the volcano shape and the conduit. Three of the volcanoes (Minchinmavida (2404 m), Cerro Yanteles (2050 m), and Peteroa (3603 m)) are stratovolcanos and are formed of symmetrical cones with steep sides. Robinson Crusoe (922 m) is a shield volcano and is formed of a cone with gently sloping sides. They are not very active. We may surmise, that their vents had a sealing plug (vent fill) in 1835. All these volcanoes are conical. These common features are important for Darwin's triggering model, which is discussed below. The vent fill material, usually, has high level of porosity and a very low tensile strength and can easily be fragmented by tension waves. The action of a severe earthquake on the volcano base may be compared with a nuclear blast explosion of the base. It is known, that after a underground nuclear explosion the vertical motion and the surface fractures in a tope of mountains were observed. The same is related to the propagation of waves in conical elements. After the explosive load of the base. the tip may break and fly off at high velocity. Analogous phenomenon may be generated as a result of a

  11. A Benthic Invertebrate Survey of Jun Jaegyu Volcano: An active undersea volcano in Antarctic Sound, Antarctica (United States)

    Quinones, G.; Brachfeld, S.; Gorring, M.; Prezant, R. S.; Domack, E.


    Jun Jaegyu volcano, an Antarctic submarine volcano, was dredged in May 2004 during cruise 04-04 of the RV Laurence M. Gould to determine rock, sediment composition and marine macroinvertebrate diversity. The objectives of this study are to examine the benthic assemblages and biodiversity present on a young volcano. The volcano is located on the continental shelf of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, where recent changes in surface temperature and ice shelf stability have been observed. This volcano was originally swath-mapped during cruise 01-07 of the Research Vessel-Ice Breaker Nathaniel B. Palmer. During LMG04-04 we also studied the volcano using a SCUD video camera, and performed temperature surveys along the flanks and crest. Both the video and the dredge indicate a seafloor surface heavily colonized by benthic organisms. Indications of fairly recent lava flows are given by the absence of marine life on regions of the volcano. The recovered dredge material was sieved, and a total of thirty-three invertebrates were extracted. The compilation of invertebrate community data can subsequently be compared to other benthic invertebrate studies conducted along the peninsula, which can determine the regional similarity of communities over time, their relationship to environmental change and health, if any, and their relationship to geologic processes in Antarctic Sound. Twenty-two rock samples, all slightly weathered and half bearing encrusted organisms, were also analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Except for one conglomerate sample, all are alkali basalts and share similar elemental compositions with fresh, unweathered samples from the volcano. Two of the encrusted basalt samples have significantly different compositions than the rest. We speculate this difference could be due to water loss during sample preparation, loss of organic carbon trapped within the vesicles of the samples and/or elemental uptake by the

  12. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems. (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D


    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Evaluating the Characteristics of Social Vulnerability to Wildfire: Demographics, Perceptions, and Parcel Characteristics. (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Prato, Tony; Edgeley, Catrin; Nalle, Darek


    A large body of research focuses on identifying patterns of human populations most at risk from hazards and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. One common concept in such studies is social vulnerability-human populations' potential exposure to, sensitivity from and ability to reduce negative impacts from a hazard. While there is growing interest in social vulnerability for wildfire, few studies have critically evaluated the characteristics that scholars often indicate influence social vulnerability to that hazard. This research utilizes surveys, wildfire simulations, and GIS data to test the relationships between select demographic, perceptual and parcel characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for wildfire exposure or wildfire-related damages and their performance of mitigation actions. Our results from Flathead County, MT, USA, suggest that parcel characteristics such as property value, building value, and the year structures were built explaining a significant amount of the variance in elements of social vulnerability. Demographic characteristics commonly used in social vulnerability analysis did not have significant relationships with measures of wildfire exposure or vulnerability. Part-time or full-time residency, age, perceived property risk, and year of development were among the few significant determinants of residents' performance of fuel reduction mitigations, although the significance of these factors varied across the levels of fuel reduction performed by homeowners. We use these and other results to argue for a renewed focus on the finer-scale characteristics that expose some populations to wildfire risk more than others.

  14. Evaluating the Characteristics of Social Vulnerability to Wildfire: Demographics, Perceptions, and Parcel Characteristics (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B.; Prato, Tony; Edgeley, Catrin; Nalle, Darek


    A large body of research focuses on identifying patterns of human populations most at risk from hazards and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. One common concept in such studies is social vulnerability—human populations' potential exposure to, sensitivity from and ability to reduce negative impacts from a hazard. While there is growing interest in social vulnerability for wildfire, few studies have critically evaluated the characteristics that scholars often indicate influence social vulnerability to that hazard. This research utilizes surveys, wildfire simulations, and GIS data to test the relationships between select demographic, perceptual and parcel characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for wildfire exposure or wildfire-related damages and their performance of mitigation actions. Our results from Flathead County, MT, USA, suggest that parcel characteristics such as property value, building value, and the year structures were built explaining a significant amount of the variance in elements of social vulnerability. Demographic characteristics commonly used in social vulnerability analysis did not have significant relationships with measures of wildfire exposure or vulnerability. Part-time or full-time residency, age, perceived property risk, and year of development were among the few significant determinants of residents' performance of fuel reduction mitigations, although the significance of these factors varied across the levels of fuel reduction performed by homeowners. We use these and other results to argue for a renewed focus on the finer-scale characteristics that expose some populations to wildfire risk more than others.

  15. Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella


    We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

  16. Experimental research on mechanical properties of high voltage transmission lines after the simulated wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Tianzheng


    Full Text Available In order to determine whether the mechanical performance after the fires of high voltage transmission lines meets the requirements of normal use, this article simulates the wildfire, and does the mechanical performance experiment of high voltage transmission lines(HVT lines after the simulated wildfires. The experiment studied the breaking force and elongation of each layer of 500kv HVT lines after the simulated wildfire. Experimental results show that, after fires, each layer of single aluminum wires of 500kv HVT lines have low breaking force which can be decreased obviously to half of that of new lines. For the steel core, decrease of breaking force is not obvious than aluminum wires, and with the increasing degree of wildfires, it increases gradually to a maximum of 35% of new steel lines’ breaking force. After wildfires, aluminum lines’ resistance ability of deformation decreases significantly, and its plastic deformation increases obviously during uniaxial tension. The steel core has little plastic deformation, and layers of aluminum become fluffy after fires. Therefore, the steel core main bearing load after wildfires.

  17. Airborne measurements of western U.S. wildfire emissions: Comparison with prescribed burning and air quality implications: Western U.S. Wildfire Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiaoxi [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Now at Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Now at Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Huey, L. Gregory [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Yokelson, Robert J. [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Selimovic, Vanessa [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Simpson, Isobel J. [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Müller, Markus [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck Austria; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Beyersdorf, Andreas J. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Now at Department of Chemistry, California State University, San Bernardino California USA; Blake, Donald R. [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Butterfield, Zachary [Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Now at Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michigan USA; Choi, Yonghoon [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton Virginia USA; Crounse, John D. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Day, Douglas A. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Diskin, Glenn S. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Dubey, Manvendra K. [Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Fortner, Edward [Center for Aerosol and Cloud Chemistry, Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Hanisco, Thomas F. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Hu, Weiwei [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; King, Laura E. [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Kleinman, Lawrence [Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Meinardi, Simone [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Mikoviny, Tomas [Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo, Oslo Norway; Onasch, Timothy B. [Center for Aerosol and Cloud Chemistry, Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Palm, Brett B. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Peischl, Jeff [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Colorado USA; Pollack, Ilana B. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Colorado USA


    Wildfires emit significant amounts of pollutants that degrade air quality. Plumes from three wildfires in the western U.S. were measured from aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), both in summer 2013. This study reports an extensive set of emission factors (EFs) for over 80 gases and 5 components of submicron particulate matter (PM1) from these temperate wildfires. These include rarely, or never before, measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds and multifunctional organic nitrates. The observed EFs are compared with previous measurements of temperate wildfires, boreal forest fires, and temperate prescribed fires. The wildfires emitted high amounts of PM1 (with organic aerosol (OA) dominating the mass) with an average EF that is more than two times the EFs for prescribed fires. The measured EFs were used to estimate the annual wildfire emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total nonmethane organic compounds, and PM1 from 11 western U.S. states. The estimated gas emissions are generally comparable with the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, our PM1 emission estimate (1530 ± 570 Gg yr-1) is over three times that of the NEI PM2.5 estimate and is also higher than the PM2.5 emitted from all other sources in these states in the NEI. This study indicates that the source of OA from BB in the western states is significantly underestimated. In addition, our results indicate prescribed burning may be an effective method to reduce fine particle emissions.

  18. Research on Winter Lightning in Japan (United States)

    Ishii, Masaru

    Winter lightning in Japan is known for such characteristics as frequent occurrence of upward lightning and of positive ground flashes. On the engineering side, higher frequencies of troubles at transmission lines or wind turbines in winter due to lightning than those in summer have been experienced in the winter thunderstorm area of Japan, despite the much smaller number of lightning strokes in winter observed by lightning location systems (LLS). Such frequent troubles by lightning in the cold season are unique in Japan, which have promoted intensive research on winter lightning in Japan since 1980s.

  19. The normalised wildfire ash index (NWAI): a remote sensing approach for quantifying post-wildfire ash loads (United States)

    Chris, Chafer; Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina


    The impacts of wildfire ash, the powdery residue from fuel burning, on post-fire ecosystems are many and diverse. Ash is a source of nutrients and can help the recovery of vegetation. It can also contain substantial amounts of recalcitrant carbon and thus contribute to long-term carbon storage. In its initial state, the ash layer on the ground can protect the bare soil, mitigating post-fire water erosion by runoff. However, when the adsorbent capability of this layer is exceeded, ash can be transported into the hydrological network and be a major contributor to water contamination. Ash can also contribute to post-fire mass movements such as debris flows. The eco-hydro-geomorphic impacts of ash on post-fire ecosystems are therefore important, but remain poorly quantified. A fundamental step in that direction is the understanding of ash production and distribution at the landscape scale, which would allow incorporating ash as a key parameter into post-fire risk models. We have developed a new spectral index (NWAI) using Landsat imagery to model the spatial distribution of ash loads in the post-fire landscape. It was developed based on a severe wildfire that burnt 13,000 ha of dry eucalyptus forest near Sydney and has also been tested for a forested area burnt by the catastrophic 2009 Black Saturday fires near Melbourne. Although ecosystem and fire characteristics differed substantially between the Sydney and Melbourne fires, our NWAI index performs well. In this contribution we will discuss the (i) the principles of the NWAI and (ii) its potential for pollution risk forecasting.

  20. Voluminous submarine lava flows from Hawaiian volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holcomb, R.T.; Moore, J.G.; Lipman, P.W.; Belderson, R.H.


    The GLORIA long-range sonar imaging system has revealed fields of large lava flows in the Hawaiian Trough east and south of Hawaii in water as deep as 5.5 km. Flows in the most extensive field (110 km long) have erupted from the deep submarine segment of Kilauea's east rift zone. Other flows have been erupted from Loihi and Mauna Loa. This discovery confirms a suspicion, long held from subaerial studies, that voluminous submarine flows are erupted from Hawaiian volcanoes, and it supports an inference that summit calderas repeatedly collapse and fill at intervals of centuries to millenia owing to voluminous eruptions. These extensive flows differ greatly in form from pillow lavas found previously along shallower segments of the rift zones; therefore, revision of concepts of volcano stratigraphy and structure may be required.

  1. Vulcan's fury: Man against the volcano (United States)

    Varekamp, Johan C.

    I read this book on an 11-hour flight back from a field trip in the Andes, where I got first-hand insight into how people live with a volcano that now and then explodes. Appropriate reading, I felt, especially as the fascination of the human world with volcanoes and eruptive disasters is indeed long standing. This book is a recent addition to a list of titles in this genre (e.g., the new book by Sigurdsson to be reviewed in Eos shortly). The scope of the book is summarized in the introductory sentence of the preface: “This book is about an unequal contest. It describes human reactions to volcanic eruptions.” This is the perspective of the book's descriptions of 16 large and not-so-large eruptions over the last two millennia.

  2. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.


    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  3. On the morphometry of terrestrial shield volcanoes (United States)

    Grosse, Pablo; Kervyn, Matthieu


    Shield volcanoes are described as low angle edifices that have convex up topographic profiles and are built primarily by the accumulation of lava flows. This generic view of shields' morphology is based on a limited number of monogenetic shields from Iceland and Mexico, and a small set of large oceanic islands (Hawaii, Galapagos). Here, the morphometry of over 150 monogenetic and polygenetic shield volcanoes, identified inthe Global Volcanism Network database, are analysed quantitatively from 90-meter resolution DEMs using the MORVOLC algorithm. An additional set of 20 volcanoes identified as stratovolcanoes but having low slopes and being dominantly built up by accumulation of lava flows are documented for comparison. Results show that there is a large variation in shield size (volumes range from 0.1 to >1000 km3), profile shape (height/basal width ratios range from 0.01 to 0.1), flank slope gradients, elongation and summit truncation. Correlation and principal component analysis of the obtained quantitative database enables to identify 4 key morphometric descriptors: size, steepness, plan shape and truncation. Using these descriptors through clustering analysis, a new classification scheme is proposed. It highlights the control of the magma feeding system - either central, along a linear structure, or spatially diffuse - on the resulting shield volcano morphology. Genetic relationships and evolutionary trends between contrasted morphological end-members can be highlighted within this new scheme. Additional findings are that the Galapagos-type morphology with a central deep caldera and steep upper flanks are characteristic of other shields. A series of large oceanic shields have slopes systematically much steeper than the low gradients (<4-8°) generally attributed to large Hawaiian-type shields. Finally, the continuum of morphologies from flat shields to steeper complex volcanic constructs considered as stratovolcanoes calls for a revision of this oversimplified

  4. Buried caldera of mauna kea volcano, hawaii. (United States)

    Porter, S C


    An elliptical caldera (2.1 by 2.8 kilometers) at the summit of Mauna Kea volcano is inferred to lie buried beneath hawaiite lava flows and pyroclastic cones at an altitude of approximately 3850 meters. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that hawaiite eruptions began before a pre-Wisconsin period of ice-cap glaciation and that the crest of the mountain attained its present altitude and gross form during a glaciation of probable Early Wisconsin age.

  5. Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2014 (United States)

    Nathenson, Manuel


    The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions.

  6. Monitoring active volcanoes: The geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Ohba


    Full Text Available

    The geochemical surveillance of an active volcano aims to recognize possible signals that are related to changes in volcanic activity. Indeed, as a consequence of the magma rising inside the volcanic "plumbing system" and/or the refilling with new batches of magma, the dissolved volatiles in the magma are progressively released as a function of their relative solubilities. When approaching the surface, these fluids that are discharged during magma degassing can interact with shallow aquifers and/or can be released along the main volcano-tectonic structures. Under these conditions, the following main degassing processes represent strategic sites to be monitored.

    The main purpose of this special volume is to collect papers that cover a wide range of topics in volcanic fluid geochemistry, which include geochemical characterization and geochemical monitoring of active volcanoes using different techniques and at different sites. Moreover, part of this volume has been dedicated to the new geochemistry tools.

  7. Geothermal Exploration of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waibel, Albert F. [Columbia Geoscience, Pasco, WA (United States); Frone, Zachary S. [Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX (United States); Blackwell, David D. [Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX (United States)


    Davenport Newberry (Davenport) has completed 8 years of exploration for geothermal energy on Newberry Volcano in central Oregon. Two deep exploration test wells were drilled by Davenport on the west flank of the volcano, one intersected a hydrothermal system; the other intersected isolated fractures with no hydrothermal interconnection. Both holes have bottom-hole temperatures near or above 315°C (600°F). Subsequent to deep test drilling an expanded exploration and evaluation program was initiated. These efforts have included reprocessing existing data, executing multiple geological, geophysical, geochemical programs, deep exploration test well drilling and shallow well drilling. The efforts over the last three years have been made possible through a DOE Innovative Exploration Technology (IET) Grant 109, designed to facilitate innovative geothermal exploration techniques. The combined results of the last 8 years have led to a better understanding of the history and complexity of Newberry Volcano and improved the design and interpretation of geophysical exploration techniques with regard to blind geothermal resources in volcanic terrain.

  8. Seismic and infrasound monitoring at Cotopaxi volcano (United States)

    Ruiz, M.; Yepes, H.; Palacios, P.; Troncoso, L.; Mothes, P.; Kumagai, H.


    Cotopaxi is an active ice-capped volcano (5967m) located 60 km SE from Quito and is one of the largest and more hazardous volcanoes in the Northern Andes. Monitoring of Cotopaxi, using seismic and infrasound techniques has improving significantly since 1976, when three short-period stations were deployed temporarily in response to an increase of fumarolic activity. Later in May 1977, a short-period vertical seismometer was installed on the NW flank at 7 km from the crater. Since 1986 a short-period seismic station is working at the northern flank of Cotopaxi and transmitting analog data to the Instituto Geofisico. In 1993 a network of 4 short-period seismic stations were installed on all flanks of the volcano. Between March 1996 and June 1997 a temporal network of 16 stations were deployed for several months in order to study local seismicity and internal structure (Metaxian et al., 1999). Since 2006, a network of five broad band stations (0.02-60 s) and low-frequency infrasound sensors (0.01-10 s) were installed through a JICA Cooperation Project (Kumagai et al., 2007). Data is transmitted to the Instituto Geofisico via a digital radio system. Through this network, LP and VLP events have been recorded and analyzed (Molina et al., 2008). VLP events were located beneath the north and north-eastern flank using waveform inversion and amplitude distribution methods (Kumagai et al., 2010).

  9. Detecting Blackholes and Volcanoes in Directed Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Zhongmou; Liu, Yanchi


    In this paper, we formulate a novel problem for finding blackhole and volcano patterns in a large directed graph. Specifically, a blackhole pattern is a group which is made of a set of nodes in a way such that there are only inlinks to this group from the rest nodes in the graph. In contrast, a volcano pattern is a group which only has outlinks to the rest nodes in the graph. Both patterns can be observed in real world. For instance, in a trading network, a blackhole pattern may represent a group of traders who are manipulating the market. In the paper, we first prove that the blackhole mining problem is a dual problem of finding volcanoes. Therefore, we focus on finding the blackhole patterns. Along this line, we design two pruning schemes to guide the blackhole finding process. In the first pruning scheme, we strategically prune the search space based on a set of pattern-size-independent pruning rules and develop an iBlackhole algorithm. The second pruning scheme follows a divide-and-conquer strategy to fur...

  10. Nanoscale volcanoes: accretion of matter at ion-sculpted nanopores. (United States)

    Mitsui, Toshiyuki; Stein, Derek; Kim, Young-Rok; Hoogerheide, David; Golovchenko, J A


    We demonstrate the formation of nanoscale volcano-like structures induced by ion-beam irradiation of nanoscale pores in freestanding silicon nitride membranes. Accreted matter is delivered to the volcanoes from micrometer distances along the surface. Volcano formation accompanies nanopore shrinking and depends on geometrical factors and the presence of a conducting layer on the membrane's back surface. We argue that surface electric fields play an important role in accounting for the experimental observations.

  11. Citizen empowerment in volcano monitoring, communication and decision-making at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador (United States)

    Bartel, B. A.; Mothes, P. A.


    Trained citizen volunteers called vigías have worked to help monitor and communicate warnings about Tungurahua volcano, in Ecuador, since the volcano reawoke in 1999. The network, organized by the scientists of Ecuador's Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional (Geophysical Institute) and the personnel from the Secretaría Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos (Risk Management, initially the Civil Defense), has grown to more than 20 observers living around the volcano who communicate regularly via handheld two-way radios. Interviews with participants conducted in 2010 indicate that the network enables direct communication between communities and authorities; engenders trust in scientists and emergency response personnel; builds community; and empowers communities to make decisions in times of crisis.

  12. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter (United States)

    Robock, A.


    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  13. Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups. (United States)

    Gazzard, Rob; McMorrow, Julia; Aylen, Jonathan


    Severe wildfires are an intermittent problem in England. The paper presents the first analysis of wildfire policy, showing its halting evolution over two decades. First efforts to coordinate wildfire management came from local fire operation groups, where stakeholders such as fire services, land owners and amenity groups shared knowledge and equipment to tackle the problem. A variety of structures and informal management solutions emerged in response to local needs. Knowledge of wildfire accumulated within regional and national wildfire forums and academic networks. Only later did the need for central emergency planning and the response to climate change produce a national policy response. Fire statistics have allowed wildfires to be spatially evidenced on a national scale only since 2009. National awareness of wildfire was spurred by the 2011 fire season, and the high-impact Swinley Forest fire, which threatened critical infrastructure and communities within 50 miles of London. Severe wildfire was included in the National Risk Register for the first time in 2013. Cross-sector approaches to wildfire proved difficult as government responsibility is fragmented along the hazard chain. Stakeholders such as the Forestry Commission pioneered good practice in adaptive land management to build fire resilience into UK forests. The grass-roots evolution of participatory solutions has also been a key enabling process. A coordinated policy is now needed to identify best practice and to promote understanding of the role of fire in the ecosystem.This article is part of a themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

  14. Effects of wildfires on ash Carbon, Nitrogen and C/N ratio in Mediterranean forests (United States)

    Pereira, P.; Ubeda, X.; Martin, D. A.


    Carbon (C) and Nitrogen(N) are key nutrients in ecosystems health and the more affected by fire temperatures, because of their low temperatures of volatilization. After a wildfire, due higher temperatures reached, a great amount of C and N can be evacuated from the ecosystems and the percentage of C and N not vaporized is concentrated in ashes. Hence, the study of ash C and N is of major importance because will be linked with the capacity of ecosystem recuperation. The aim of this work is study the C, and C/N of three wildfires occurred in Mediterranean forests dominated by Quercus suber and Pinus pinea in Portugal. In the first wildfire, named "Quinta do Conde", we collected 30 samples, in the second, "Quinta da Areia", 32 samples and the third, "Casal do Sapo" 40 samples To estimate the consequences of wildfires in the parameters in study, we collected several samples of unburned litter near burned areas, composed by the same vegetation. The results showed that wildfires induced in % of Total Carbon (%TC) ashes content a non significantly reduction in Quinta do Conde plot (at a pQuercus suber samples and a rise until the 300°C in Pinus pinaster samples decreasing thereafter especially after the 400°C. In %TN we identified a rise in both species reducing abruptly at 450°C. C/N ratio decrease importantly after the 150°C. Theses results showed us that wildfires can have different effects C and N litter resources, depending on the severity and temperature reached. Crossing the results obtained in laboratory simulations with the samples collected in wildfires we will have an idea about the severity and temperature occurred in each wildfire. Overall, the lower severity were observed in Quinta do Conde plot and the higher in Casal do Sapo plot, being Quinta da Areia in a middle position. The C and N levels after a wildfire will determine the capacity of landscape recuperation and according the data obtained this will be higher in Quinta do Conde plot and lesser in

  15. July 1973 ground survey of active Central American volcanoes (United States)

    Stoiber, R. E. (Principal Investigator); Rose, W. I., Jr.


    The author has identified the following significant results. Ground survey has shown that thermal anomalies of various sizes associated with volcanic activity at several Central American volcanoes should be detectable from Skylab. Anomalously hot areas of especially large size (greater than 500 m in diameter) are now found at Santiaguito and Pacaya volcanoes in Guatemala and San Cristobal in Nicaragua. Smaller anomalous areas are to be found at least seven other volcanoes. This report is completed after ground survey of eleven volcanoes and ground-based radiation thermometry mapping at these same points.

  16. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling


    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  17. Geologic map of Medicine Lake volcano, northern California (United States)

    Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.


    Medicine Lake volcano forms a broad, seemingly nondescript highland, as viewed from any angle on the ground. Seen from an airplane, however, treeless lava flows are scattered across the surface of this potentially active volcanic edifice. Lavas of Medicine Lake volcano, which range in composition from basalt through rhyolite, cover more than 2,000 km2 east of the main axis of the Cascade Range in northern California. Across the Cascade Range axis to the west-southwest is Mount Shasta, its towering volcanic neighbor, whose stratocone shape contrasts with the broad shield shape of Medicine Lake volcano. Hidden in the center of Medicine Lake volcano is a 7 km by 12 km summit caldera in which nestles its namesake, Medicine Lake. The flanks of Medicine Lake volcano, which are dotted with cinder cones, slope gently upward to the caldera rim, which reaches an elevation of nearly 8,000 ft (2,440 m). The maximum extent of lavas from this half-million-year-old volcano is about 80 km north-south by 45 km east-west. In postglacial time, 17 eruptions have added approximately 7.5 km3 to its total estimated volume of 600 km3, and it is considered to be the largest by volume among volcanoes of the Cascades arc. The volcano has erupted nine times in the past 5,200 years, a rate more frequent than has been documented at all other Cascades arc volcanoes except Mount St. Helens.

  18. Magma Supply System at Batur Volcano Inferred from Volcano-Tectonic Earthquakes and Their Focal Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Hidayati


    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.v8i2.159The Volcano-Tectonic (VT earthquakes occurring during September - November 2009 were analyzed. The result shows that the epicentres aligning in NE- SW direction coincided with the weak zone of Batur Volcano Complex. The focal zone is located at the depth around 1.5 - 5.5 km beneath the summit. Migration of magma was detected by ground deformation measured by GPS and focal mechanism. Mechanism of VT earthquake shows mostly normal fault types during the swarm in November 2009.

  19. The petrological relationship between Kamen volcano and adjacent volcanoes of Klyuchevskaya group (United States)

    Churikova, Tatiana; Gordeychik, Boris; Wörner, Gerhard; Ivanov, Boris; Maximov, Alexander; Lebedev, Igor; Griban, Andrey


    The Klyuchevskaya Group (KG) of volcanoes has the highest magma production rate across the Kamchatka arc and in fact for any arc worldwide. However, modern geochemical studies of Kamen volcano, which is located between Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny and Ploskie Sopky volcanoes, were not carried out and its relation and petrogenesis in comparison to other KG volcanoes is unknown. Space-time proximity of KG volcanoes and the common zone of seismicity below them may suggest a common source and genetic relationship. However, the lavas of neighboring volcanoes are rather different: high-Mg and high-Al basalts occur at Klyuchevskoy volcano, Hbl-bearing andesites and dаcites dominate at Bezymianny and medium-high-K subalkaline rocks at Ploskie Sopky volcano. Moreover, previously it was shown that distinct fluid signatures were observed in different KG volcanoes. In this report we present geological, petrographical, mineralogical and petrochemical data on the rocks of Kamen volcano in comparison with other KG volcanoes. Three consecutive periods of volcano activity were recognized in geological history of Kamen volcano: stratovolcano formation, development of a dike complex and formation of numerous cinder and cinder-lava monogenetic cones. The rock series of volcano are divided into four groups: olivine-bearing (Ol-2Px and Ol-Cpx), olivine-free (2Px-Pl, Cpx-Pl and abundant Pl), Hb-bearing and subaphyric rocks. While olivine-bearing rocks are observed in all volcanic stages, olivine-free lavas are presented only in the stratovolcano edifice. Lavas of the monogenetic cones are presented by olivine-bearing and subaphyric rocks. Dikes are olivine-bearing and hornblende-bearing rocks. Olivines of the Kamen stratovolcano and dikes vary from Fo60 to Fo83, clinopyroxenes are augites in composition and plagioclases have a bimodal distribution with maximum modes at An50 and An86. Oxides are represented by high-Al spinel, magnetite and titaniferous magnetite. Mineral compositions of the

  20. Vegetation recovery assessment following large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Trigo, R. M.; DaCamara, C. C.


    Mediterranean ecosystems have evolved along with fire, adapting to quick recovering following wildfire events. However, vegetation species respond differently to the changes in fire regimes that have been observed in the past decades in the Mediterranean. These changes, which occurred mainly due to socio-economic and climatic changes, led to dramatic modifications of landscape composition and structure (Malkinson et al., 2011). Post-fire vegetation recovery depends on environmental factors such as landscape features and climatic variables and on specific plant traits; however it also depends on the differentiated response of each species to the characteristics of fire regimes, such as recurrence, severity and extent. The complexity of the interactions between these factors emphasizes the importance of assessing quantitatively post-fire recovery as well as the role of driving factors of regeneration over different regions in the Mediterranean. In 2006, Spain experienced the fire season with larger fires, restricted to a relatively small region of the province of Galicia, that represents more than 60% of total burned area of this fire season (92000ha out of 148827 ha). The 2007 fire season in Greece was remarkably severe, registering the highest value of burnt area (225734 ha) since 1980. Finally, in 2010 a very large wildfire of about 5000 ha occurred in Mount Carmel, Israel, with major social and environmental impacts. The work relies on monthly NDVI data from SPOT/VEGETATION at 1km spatial resolution over the period from September 1998 - August 2011 for Spain, Greece and Israel. Here we have applied the same sequential methodology developed at our laboratory, starting by the identification of very large burnt scars by means of a spatial cluster analysis followed by the application of the monoparametric model (Gouveia et al., 2010; Bastos et al., 2011) in order to study post-fire vegetation dynamics. Post-fire recovery times were estimated for burnt scars from each

  1. Decisions, Decisions: Exotic Grass Invasions and Altered Wildfire Regimes in the American Deserts (United States)

    Betancourt, J. L.


    Large-scale invasions by Eurasian and African grasses, brought in by chance or to feed cattle and control erosion, have introduced frequent and extensive fires into American deserts that supported little or no burning in the pre-European era. Based on the fossil record, these have been the fastest, most pervasive and transforming plant invasions of the last 10,000 years. They could easily accelerate with warmer and drier winters and longer and hotter growing seasons in the American West, conspicuous since the mid-1980's and projected to persist with global warming. In cool seasons and wet years that are not usually conducive to wildfires, these invasions are now driving long ignition fronts across long stretches of desertscrub into adjoining woodlands and forests. As such, invasive grasses are capable of changing fire-climate dynamics and altering the entire landscape mosaic. We must now choose between saving the desert or resigning ourselves to these novel and combustible grasslands. In either case, the first line of defense is to immediately adopt an aggressive program of fire suppression in our deserts at a time when we can barely afford to put out forest fires. In the American deserts and adjoining ecosystems, we are standing on a threshold and must now prepare the public for the consequences should those mitigation efforts fail. Both science and management needs should be prioritized to make the best use of limited funding and resources, taking into account the exponential growth of invader abundance, fuel connectivity and fire size as well as projected changes in land use and climate. What is missing is an integrated scientific and political framework vetted and approved by a wide range of stakeholders, with a good chance of sustainable and broadscale success. What decisions must we make, who makes them, and how will they be implemented across complex physical and cultural landscapes? My own take on these issues is that of a federal scientist with a sense of

  2. Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. (United States)

    Littell, Jeremy S; McKenzie, Donald; Peterson, David L; Westerling, Anthony L


    The purpose of this paper is to quantify climatic controls on the area burned by fire in different vegetation types in the western United States. We demonstrate that wildfire area burned (WFAB) in the American West was controlled by climate during the 20th century (1916-2003). Persistent ecosystem-specific correlations between climate and WFAB are grouped by vegetation type (ecoprovinces). Most mountainous ecoprovinces exhibit strong year-of-fire relationships with low precipitation, low Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and high temperature. Grass- and shrub-dominated ecoprovinces had positive relationships with antecedent precipitation or PDSI. For 1977-2003, a few climate variables explain 33-87% (mean = 64%) of WFAB, indicating strong linkages between climate and area burned. For 1916-2003, the relationships are weaker, but climate explained 25-57% (mean = 39%) of the variability. The variance in WFAB is proportional to the mean squared for different data sets at different spatial scales. The importance of antecedent climate (summer drought in forested ecosystems and antecedent winter precipitation in shrub and grassland ecosystems) indicates that the mechanism behind the observed fire-climate relationships is climatic preconditioning of large areas of low fuel moisture via drying of existing fuels or fuel production and drying. The impacts of climate change on fire regimes will therefore vary with the relative energy or water limitations of ecosystems. Ecoprovinces proved a useful compromise between ecologically imprecise state-level and localized gridded fire data. The differences in climate-fire relationships among the ecoprovinces underscore the need to consider ecological context (vegetation, fuels, and seasonal climate) to identify specific climate drivers of WFAB. Despite the possible influence of fire suppression, exclusion, and fuel treatment, WFAB is still substantially controlled by climate. The implications for planning and management are that

  3. Fiber Bragg grating strain sensors to monitor and study active volcanoes (United States)

    Sorrentino, Fiodor; Beverini, Nicolò; Carbone, Daniele; Carelli, Giorgio; Francesconi, Francesco; Gambino, Salvo; Giacomelli, Umberto; Grassi, Renzo; Maccioni, Enrico; Morganti, Mauro


    Stress and strain changes are among the best indicators of impending volcanic activity. In volcano geodesy, borehole volumetric strain-meters are mostly utilized. However, they are not easy to install and involve high implementation costs. Advancements in opto-electronics have allowed the development of low-cost sensors, reliable, rugged and compact, thus particularly suitable for field application. In the framework of the EC FP7 MED-SUV project, we have developed strain sensors based on the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technology. In comparison with previous implementation of the FBG technology to study rock deformations, we have designed a system that is expected to offer a significantly higher resolution and accuracy in static measurements and a smooth dynamic response up to 100 Hz, implying the possibility to observe seismic waves. The system performances are tailored to suit the requirements of volcano monitoring, with special attention to power consumption and to the trade-off between performance and cost. Preliminary field campaigns were carried out on Mt. Etna (Italy) using a prototypal single-axis FBG strain sensor, to check the system performances in out-of-the-lab conditions and in the harsh volcanic environment (lack of mains electricity for power, strong diurnal temperature changes, strong wind, erosive ash, snow and ice during the winter time). We also designed and built a FBG strain sensor featuring a multi-axial configuration which was tested and calibrated in the laboratory. This instrument is suitable for borehole installation and will be tested on Etna soon.

  4. Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire (United States)

    Nyman, Petter; Smith, Hugh G.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Sheridan, Gary J.


    Debris flows are an important erosion process in wildfire-prone landscapes. Predicting their frequency and magnitude can therefore be critical for quantifying risk to infrastructure, people and water resources. However, the factors contributing to the frequency and magnitude of events remain poorly understood, particularly in regions outside western USA. Against this background, the objectives of this study were to i) quantify sediment yields from post-fire debris flows in southeast Australian highlands and ii) model the effects of landscape attributes on debris flow susceptibility. Sediment yields from post-fire debris flows (113-294 t ha- 1) are 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than annual background erosion rates from undisturbed forests. Debris flow volumes ranged from 539 to 33,040 m3 with hillslope contributions of 18-62%. The distribution of erosion and deposition above the fan were related to a stream power index, which could be used to model changes in yield along the drainage network. Debris flow susceptibility was quantified with a logistic regression and an inventory of 315 debris flow fans deposited in the first year after two large wildfires (total burned area = 2919 km2). The differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR or burn severity), local slope, radiative index of dryness (AI) and rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar) were significant predictors in a susceptibility model, which produced excellent results in terms identifying channels that were eroded by debris flows (Area Under Curve, AUC = 0.91). Burn severity was the strongest predictor in the model (AUC = 0.87 when dNBR is used as single predictor) suggesting that fire regimes are an important control on sediment delivery from these forests. The analysis showed a positive effect of AI on debris flow probability in landscapes where differences in moisture regimes due to climate are associated with large variation in soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results from this study based in the

  5. Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States. (United States)

    Alexandre, Patricia M; Stewart, Susan I; Keuler, Nicholas S; Clayton, Murray K; Mockrin, Miranda H; Bar-Massada, Avi; Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C


    Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Yet, when wildfires occur, typically only a small proportion of the buildings within the fire perimeter are lost, and the question is what determines which buildings burn. Our goal was to examine which factors are related to building loss when a wildfire occurs throughout the United States. We were particularly interested in the relative roles of vegetation, topography, and the spatial arrangement of buildings, and how their respective roles vary among ecoregions. We analyzed all fires that occurred within the conterminous United States from 2000 to 2010 and digitized which buildings were lost and which survived according to Google Earth historical imagery. We modeled the occurrence as well as the percentage of buildings lost within clusters using logistic and linear regression. Overall, variables related to topography and the spatial arrangement of buildings were more frequently present in the best 20 regression models than vegetation-related variables. In other words, specific locations in the landscape have a higher fire risk, and certain development patterns can exacerbate that risk. Fire policies and prevention efforts focused on vegetation management are important, but insufficient to solve current wildfire problems. Furthermore, the factors associated with building loss varied considerably among ecoregions suggesting that fire policy applied uniformly across the United States will not work equally well in all regions and that efforts to adapt communities to wildfires must be regionally tailored.

  6. The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire (United States)

    Murphy, Sheila F.; Writer, Jeffrey H.; Blaine McCleskey, R.; Martin, Deborah A.


    Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by convective storms with a 30 min rainfall intensity >10 mm h-1. These storms, which typically occur several times each year in July-September, are often small in area, short-lived, and highly variable in intensity and geographic distribution. Thus, a rain gage network with high temporal resolution and spatial density, together with high-resolution stream sampling, are required to adequately characterize post-wildfire responses. We measured total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and manganese concentrations that were 10-156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream during relatively common (50% annual exceedance probability) rainstorms, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. Short-term water-quality impairment was driven primarily by increased surface runoff during higher intensity convective storms that caused erosion in the burned area and transport of sediment and chemical constituents to streams. Annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent remobilization, whereas DOC yields were closely linked to annual runoff and thus were more dependent on interannual variation in spring runoff. Nitrate yields were highest in the third year post-wildfire. Results from this study quantitatively demonstrate that water quality can be altered for several years after wildfire. Because the southwestern US is prone to wildfires and high-intensity rain storms, the role of storms in post-wildfire

  7. Evaluation of wildfire patterns at the wildland-urban fringe across the continental U.S. (United States)

    Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.


    Wildfires threaten ecosystems and urban development across the United States, posing significant implications for land management and natural processes such as watershed hydrology. This study investigates the spatial association between large wildfires and urbanization. Several geospatial dataset are combined to map wildfires (Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity for 1984 to 2012) and housing density (SILVIS Lab Spatial Analysis for Conservation and Sustainability decadal housing density for 1940 to 2030) relative to natural wildlands across the contiguous U.S. Several buffers (i.e. 25 km) are developed around wildlands (Protected Areas Database of the United States) to quantify the change and relationship in spatial fire and housing density patterns. Since 1984, wildfire behavior is cyclical and follows general climatology, where warmer years have more and larger fires. Ignition locations also follow transportation corridors and development which provide easy accessibility to wildlands. In California, both fire frequency and total acres burned exhibit increasing trends (statistically significant at 95%). The 1980s average wildfire frequency and total acres burned was 3100 fires and approximately 1200 km2, respectively. These numbers have increased to 2200 fires and over 1500 km2 in the 2010 to 2012 period alone. Initial observations also show that decennial population and area burned for four major Californian counties (Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Shasta) show strong correlation between the last decade of burned area, urban-fringe proximity, and urbanization trends. Improving our understanding of human induced wildfire regimes provides key information on urban fringe communities most vulnerable to the wildfire risks and can help inform regional development planning.

  8. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Massada, Avi Bar; Brennan, Teresa J.; Radeloff, Volker C.


    Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

  9. Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D Syphard

    Full Text Available Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

  10. Phytoclimate of winter rye stands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wittchen, U. [Federal Biological Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Kleinmachnow (Germany); Chmielewski, F.M. [Humboldt-Univ. of Berlin, Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Berlin (Germany)


    The present study describes the microclimate within a winter rye (Secale cereale) stand compared to that above a bare soil at the same height. It is focused on air temperature and humidity. The study is based on long-term measurements (1981-1999) at 0.2 m above ground in the agrometeorological field experiment at Berlin-Dahlem (Humboldt-University of Berlin). The microclimate within a winter rye stand differs significantly from that above a bare soil. Temperature and actual vapour pressure differences between both locations depend on the developmental stage of the plants as well as the time of the day. Their influence is so strong that a detailed analysis of the microclimate makes it necessary to break down the growing time of crop into several developmental periods. So, it was possible to describe and explain the characteristics of the phytoclimate in a relatively detailed and comprehensive manner. Thereby the assessment of potential damages caused by pests and diseases within crop stands becomes more precise. (orig.)

  11. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Multimedia

    Corinne Pralavorio


    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  12. Do investments in wildfire risk reduction lead to downstream watershed service outcomes? An integrated wildfire-erosion-economic analysis of return on investment from fuel treatments in Colorado (United States)

    Wilson, C.; Jones, K.; Addington, R.; Cannon, J.; Cheng, T.; Gannon, B.; Kampf, S. K.; Saavedra, F.; Wei, Y.; Wolk, B.


    Large, severe wildfires negatively impact forested watersheds in the Western United States and jeopardize critical ecosystem services. Specifically, severe wildfires increase overland flow and runoff that contains sediment and debris, and cause other natural hazards such as floods. High erosion from burned watersheds can fill water supply reservoirs and clog water filtration systems, which has direct costs to water utilities in the form of increased water treatment costs and damage to infrastructure. With increasing wildfire risk due to global climate change and other factors, municipal water providers and users have been investing in management practices to reduce high-severity wildfire risk and increase source water security. In this research we integrate wildfire and erosion prediction models to estimate the return on investment from wildfire fuel treatments in the Upper South Platte watershed, southwest of Denver, Colorado. Denver Water and the U.S. Forest Service created the Forest-To-Faucets Partnership, one of the first payments for watershed services (PWS) programs in the United States. To date they have spent more than $30 million in the Upper South Platte to restore forests and conduct fuel reduction work across landownerships. However, due to the lack of appropriate analytical tools, it is still unclear what returns are being achieved with these investments, aside from the total number of acres treated. In this analysis we consider three treatment scenarios - current fuel treatment investments, a series of investments based on prioritization criteria, and investments based on accessibility - and model potential burn probability, fire severity and erosion. We then estimate the economic benefits of avoiding runoff using past expenditures by Denver Water and compare these to treatment costs. This research directly informs management practices in the Upper South Platte watershed and provides a framework that can inform decisions to optimize location, size

  13. Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine Learning Algorithms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vilar, Lara; Gómez, Israel; Martínez-Vega, Javier; Echavarría, Pilar; Riaño, David; Martín, M Pilar


    .... This study analyses socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin...

  14. Instability of Hawaiian volcanoes: Chapter 4 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Morgan, Julia K.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.


    Hawaiian volcanoes build long rift zones and some of the largest volcanic edifices on Earth. For the active volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i, the growth of these rift zones is upward and seaward and occurs through a repetitive process of decades-long buildup of a magma-system head along the rift zones, followed by rapid large-scale displacement of the seaward flank in seconds to minutes. This large-scale flank movement, which may be rapid enough to generate a large earthquake and tsunami, always causes subsidence along the coast, opening of the rift zone, and collapse of the magma-system head. If magma continues to flow into the conduit and out into the rift system, then the cycle of growth and collapse begins again. This pattern characterizes currently active Kīlauea Volcano, where periods of upward and seaward growth along rift zones were punctuated by large (>10 m) and rapid flank displacements in 1823, 1868, 1924, and 1975. At the much larger Mauna Loa volcano, rapid flank movements have occurred only twice in the past 200 years, in 1868 and 1951.

  15. Effect of wildfires on surface reflectance from a savanna ecosystem (United States)

    Poudyal, R.; Gatebe, C. K.; Ichoku, C. M.; Varnai, T.


    During an airborne field campaign in South Africa in 2005, NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) flew aboard South Africa Weather Service, Aerocommander 690A and measured surface bidirectional reflectance-distribution function (BRDF) over savanna comprised mostly of grasses and a few scattered trees. Savannas cover half the surface of Africa, large areas of Australia, South America, and India. . The region that was studied is located in Kruger National Park in northeastern South Africa, which was heavily affected by the wildfires. The CAR measured surface reflectance along its flight path covering both burned and unburned areas. . In this study, we compared surface reflectance between burnt and un-burnt areas at various wavelengths (340nm, 380nm, 472nm, 682nm, 870nm, 1036nm, 1219nm, 1273nm, and 2205nm) at satellite sub-pixel scales. We found a relative burnt surface reflectance decrease of between 8 and 65% due to fires. These results not only serve to highlight the importance of biomass burning and effects on the energy budgets, but also the need to determine the effects of albedo changes due to fires on soil moisture budget, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and runoff, all of which govern the land-surface component of the water cycle.

  16. Multisensor Network System for Wildfire Detection Using Infrared Image Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Bosch


    Full Text Available This paper presents the next step in the evolution of multi-sensor wireless network systems in the early automatic detection of forest fires. This network allows remote monitoring of each of the locations as well as communication between each of the sensors and with the control stations. The result is an increased coverage area, with quicker and safer responses. To determine the presence of a forest wildfire, the system employs decision fusion in thermal imaging, which can exploit various expected characteristics of a real fire, including short-term persistence and long-term increases over time. Results from testing in the laboratory and in a real environment are presented to authenticate and verify the accuracy of the operation of the proposed system. The system performance is gauged by the number of alarms and the time to the first alarm (corresponding to a real fire, for different probability of false alarm (PFA. The necessity of including decision fusion is thereby demonstrated.

  17. Overview of SWC techniques to mitigate soil degradation following wildfires (United States)

    Ferreira, A. J. D.; Prats-Alegre, S.; Coelho, C. O. A.; Ferreira, C. S. S.; Bento, C.; Shakesby, R. A.; Stoof, C. R.; Ritsema, C. J.


    Forest fires are the main deleterious process in Mediterranean sub-humid regions. The increasing frequency of wildfires, with increasingly reduced return periods, as a result of global change (i.e. climatic and management practices changes) leads to severe soil degradation processes, widely spread throughout the landscape. Several strategies have been developed in an attempt to prevent the occurrence of forest fires and reduce its magnitudes when they happen, as point out by the authors in several other works. Nevertheless, when they occur, several techniques can be applied to mitigate the degradation processes in burned areas. This paper presents an analysis of the effectiveness of the various techniques used to reduce the degradation processes, based on the literature and in field trials. In addition to the implementation costs and the effectiveness in reducing soil erosion processes, the paper addresses the questions of feasibility and ecological relevance. Since the costs may be prohibitive, specially if wide areas are burned, we propose strategic guidelines to target sensitive interventions in burned areas to attain the maximum conservation impacts with the least costs.

  18. Short-term response of testate amoebae to wildfire (United States)

    Qin, Yangmin


    Many peatlands are exposed to intermittent burning but the implications of this burning for microbial communities have been little studied. Here we consider the impacts of burning on the dominant protists of peatland ecosystems, the testate amoebae. To do this we use a 'natural experiment'; a peatland exposed to wildfire where fire-fighting activity left a combination of unburned and heavily burned areas in close proximity. We assessed the change in testate amoebae three days after the end of the fire. We find that burning led to a large change in assemblage composition, primarily noted by a shift from taxa with tests constructed of idiosomes to those constructed of xenosomes. The most likely explanation for this change is the direct destruction of idiosome tests by extreme heat. Although we did not differentiate live individuals from empty tests it is probable that the fire has led to significant change in the amoeba community. This change may have interesting implications for the structure of the microbial foodweb, for silica cycling and for palaeoecological reconstruction in burned peatlands. This is clearly a topic which deserves more research attention.

  19. Organizing for Emergencies - Issues in Wildfire Fighting in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac


    Full Text Available Croatia's accession to the European Union implies inevitable changes in the national emergency management system. New requirements for adjustment in accordance with the EU standards and practices also apply to the fire-services organization. Harmonious functioning of a large number of relatively autonomous organizations related to the National Protection and Rescue Directorate necessitates clear decision-making authority and coordination mechanisms as well as a high level of interoperability and core competencies development. This paper gives an overview of the Croatian fire protection organization along with its accompanying legislation, followed by an analysis of identified problems, especially those concerning fighting of wildfire. In our research a survey questionnaire comprised of Likert-scale items was used to assess the attitudes and experiences of trained fire department members. The respondents reported a relatively low evaluation of effectiveness and appropriateness of the following key fire service attributes: organizational structure, legislation and firefighting logistics support. From the obtained results guidelines can be drawn for possible redesign of the emergency management organization, especially those concerning the fire protection service.

  20. Linking local wildfire dynamics to pyroCb development (United States)

    McRae, R. H. D.; Sharples, J. J.; Fromm, M.


    Extreme wildfires are global phenomena that consistently result in loss of life and property and further impact the cultural, economic and political stability of communities. In their most severe form they cause widespread devastation of environmental assets and are capable of impacting the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere through the formation of a thunderstorm within the plume. Such fires are now often observed by a range of remote-sensing technologies, which together allow a greater understanding of a fire's complex dynamics. This paper considers one such fire that burnt in the Blue Mountains region of Australia in late November 2006, which is known to have generated significant pyrocumulonimbus clouds in a series of blow-up events. Observations of this fire are analysed in detail to investigate the localised processes contributing to extreme fire development. In particular, it has been possible to demonstrate for the first time that the most violent instances of pyroconvection were driven by, and not just associated with, atypical local fire dynamics, especially the fire channelling phenomenon, which arises due to an interaction between an active fire, local terrain attributes and critical fire weather and causes the fire to rapidly transition from a frontal to an areal burning pattern. The impacts of local variations in fire weather and of the atmospheric profile are also discussed, and the ability to predict extreme fire development with state-of-the-art tools is explored.

  1. Visualizing Global Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm Data (United States)

    Schmidt, C. C.; Hoffman, J.; Prins, E. M.


    The Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WFABBA) produces fire detection and characterization from a global constellation of geostationary satellites on a realtime basis. Presentation of this data in a timely and meaningful way has been a challenge, but as hardware and software have advanced and web tools have evolved, new options have rapidly arisen. The WFABBA team at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the Space Science Engineering Center (SSEC) have begun implementation of a web-based framework that allows a user to visualize current and archived fire data from NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), EUMETSAT's Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), JMA's Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT), and KMA's COMS series of satellites. User group needs vary from simple examination of the most recent data to multi-hour composites to animations, as well as saving datasets for further review. In order to maximize the usefulness of the data, a user-friendly and scaleable interface has been under development that will, when complete, allow access to approximately 18 years of WFABBA data, as well as the data produced in real-time. Implemented, planned, and potential additional features will be examined.

  2. All-Sky Imaging of Skylight Polarization With Wildfire Smoke (United States)

    Shaw, J. A.; Pust, N.; Forbes, E.; Dahl, L.


    We developed an all-sky imaging system for measuring skylight polarization in the visible and near-infrared spectral range. This instrument is used together with a multi-channel solar radiometer, an aerosol/cloud dual-polarization lidar, in-situ aerosol sensors, and a wide-angle thermal infrared cloud imager to study skylight polarization and its variation with changing aerosols, clouds, and underlying surface reflectance. All of these instruments except the lidar operate continuously outdoors. During August 2012, the continuously deployed instruments recorded the transition from relatively clean air to thick wildfire smoke. This presentation will summarize the temporal evolution of the aerosols and the resulting skylight polarization change as the smoke plume expanded and dissipated. During this event, the 500-nm zenith aerosol optical depth determined along the path to the Sun increased from 0.05 to 0.8 and the ground-level aerosol extinction coefficient at 530 nm wavelength increased from near 10 Mm-1 to 490 Mm-1. During the same time period, the maximum skylight polarization at 450 nm wavelength decreased from 0.7 to near 0.2. The skylight degree of linear polarization in an arc 90-degrees from the Sun was observed to transition from a nearly constant value across the arc to a highly spatially variable pattern because of the spatially nonuniform smoke plume.

  3. Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate. (United States)

    Hope, Emily S; McKenney, Daniel W; Pedlar, John H; Stocks, Brian J; Gauthier, Sylvie


    Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

  4. Concentration variations of several ions in stream after a wildfire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yang; HU Hai-qing


    In May 2006, a high intensity wildfire occurred in Songling forest region in Daxing'an Mountains, China. The concentration changes of eight ions (K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, Br-, NO3- and SO42-) were measured in burned and unburned streams after fire from May to Oct., 2006. Results show that the most ions flux were higher in burned stream than that in unburned stream during the sampling period, and the greatest concentrations of most ions transported from burned stream occurred in July. After fire, the most amplitude chemical ion was Ca2+, whose average concentration was 5.50 mg·L-1 higher than that in unburned stream, and the total concentration of every chemical ion presents a trend Ca2+> SO42- >Na+> Mg2+> NO3- . The average concentrations of Ca2+, SO42-, Na+ Mg2+, NO3- showed an increase trend,but those of K+, Cl-, Br- had a decreased trend. SO42- had the largest loss among these anions, followed by NO3-. Overall, the increase degree of cation was greater than that of anion after burning.

  5. Impact of wildfires on ozone exceptional events in the Western u.s. (United States)

    Jaffe, Daniel A; Wigder, Nicole; Downey, Nicole; Pfister, Gabriele; Boynard, Anne; Reid, Stephen B


    Wildfires generate substantial emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). As such, wildfires contribute to elevated ozone (O3) in the atmosphere. However, there is a large amount of variability in the emissions of O3 precursors and the amount of O3 produced between fires. There is also significant interannual variability as seen in median O3, organic carbon and satellite derived carbon monoxide mixing ratios in the western U.S. To better understand O3 produced from wildfires, we developed a statistical model that estimates the maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 as a function of several meteorological and temporal variables for three urban areas in the western U.S.: Salt Lake City, UT; Boise, ID; and Reno, NV. The model is developed using data from June-September 2000-2012. For these three locations, the statistical model can explain 60, 52, and 27% of the variability in daily MDA8. The Statistical Model Residual (SMR) can give information on additional sources of O3 that are not explained by the usual meteorological pattern. Several possible O3 sources can explain high SMR values on any given day. We examine several cases with high SMR that are due to wildfire influence. The first case considered is for Reno in June 2008 when the MDA8 reached 82 ppbv. The wildfire influence for this episode is supported by PM concentrations, the known location of wildfires at the time and simulations with the Weather and Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) which indicates transport to Reno from large fires burning in California. The contribution to the MDA8 in Reno from the California wildfires is estimated to be 26 ppbv, based on the SMR, and 60 ppbv, based on WRF-Chem. The WRF-Chem model also indicates an important role for peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in producing O3 during transport from the California wildfires. We hypothesize that enhancements in PAN due to wildfire emissions may lead to regional enhancements in O3 during high

  6. Chemical recalcitrance of biochar and wildfire charcoal: how similar are they? (United States)

    Santin, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H.; Merino, Agustin


    The enhanced chemical resistance to biological degradation of pyrogenic materials, either produced during wildfires (charcoal) or by man (biochar), makes them long-term carbon sinks once incorporated in soils. In spite of their fundamental similarities, studies comparing the chemical recalcitrance of biochar and wildfire charcoal are scarce because analogous materials for accurate comparison are not easily available. Using solid-state 13C cross polarization-magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy we characterized the chemical recalcitrance of pyrogenic materials generated from the same unburnt feedstooks (litter and dead wood from Pinus banksiana): (a) charcoal from a high-intensity wildfire and (b) biochar obtained by slow pyrolysis [3 treatments: 2 h at 350, 500 and 650°C]. For quantification, the spectra were divided into four regions representing different chemical environments of the 13C nucleus: alkyl C (0-45 ppm), O-alkyl C (45-110 ppm), olefinic and aromatic C(110-160 ppm), and carbonyl C (160-210 ppm). As an indicator of chemical recalcitrance, the degree of aromaticity (%) was calculated as follow: aromatic-C ∗ 100 / (alkyl C+ O alkyl-C + aromatic-C). The pyrogenic materials derived from wood show higher degrees of aromaticity (68 to 88%) than pyrogenic material derived from litter (40 to 88%). When comparing biochar and wildfire charcoal, biochars produced at 500 and 650°C always have higher degrees of aromaticity than wildfire charcoals, irrespective of the original feedstock. Wildfire charcoals always show a more heterogeneous chemical composition, with alkyl and O-alkyl compounds present even in charcoal generated at very high temperatures (temperatures up to 950 °C were recorded on the litter surface during the wildfire). However, biochars produced at 500 and 650 °C are mostly aromatic, and only the biochars produced at 350 °C show partial contribution of alkyl-C compounds. Our results suggest that biochar-type pyrogenic

  7. Wildfire Disturbance and Sediment Transfers over Millennial Time Scales: A Numerical Modelling Study (United States)

    Martin, Y.


    Wildfire may lead to accelerated soil erosion, debris flow and shallow landsliding activity in the years following disturbance. This study focuses on coastal drainage basins in British Columbia over millennial time scales, for which accelerated rates of shallow landsliding following wildfire may be of particular significance. An algorithm for wildfire occurrence, based on lake and sediment charcoal studies undertaken in coastal British Columbia and western Washington over millennial time scales (for example, Gavin et al., 2003), is incorporated into a numerical model of sediment routing over these same time scales. A stochastic rule set for wildfire frequency, based on a Weibull distribution of fire return intervals, assigns years of fire occurrence in the model. In terms of location, south-facing aspects are assigned a 25 times greater susceptibility to wildfire than north-facing aspects. As a first-order approximation, it is supposed that loss of tree root strength resulting from stand-replacing wildfires is comparable in its effects to clearcut logging. Therefore, documentation of increased shallow landslide activity associated with logging is used to adjust landsliding transport equations for the years following wildfire disturbance. Thereafter, landsliding rates are returned to pre-disturbance values. Fire return intervals, particularly those on north-facing aspects, can be relatively long in coastal British Columbia when compared to return intervals typically found in drier mountain ranges. This study investigates the degree to which wildfire disturbance affects sediment routing and delivery to channels over millennial time scales in coastal British Columbia. Sensitivity to model parameters is evaluated. Further investigations of wildfire effects on geomorphic process operation will lead to improved understanding of natural disturbance regimes to which ecosystems adjust over both the short and long term. Such information can be used to evaluate possible

  8. Volcano monitoring with an infrared camera: first insights from Villarrica Volcano (United States)

    Rosas Sotomayor, Florencia; Amigo Ramos, Alvaro; Velasquez Vargas, Gabriela; Medina, Roxana; Thomas, Helen; Prata, Fred; Geoffroy, Carolina


    This contribution focuses on the first trials of the, almost 24/7 monitoring of Villarrica volcano with an infrared camera. Results must be compared with other SO2 remote sensing instruments such as DOAS and UV-camera, for the ''day'' measurements. Infrared remote sensing of volcanic emissions is a fast and safe method to obtain gas abundances in volcanic plumes, in particular when the access to the vent is difficult, during volcanic crisis and at night time. In recent years, a ground-based infrared camera (Nicair) has been developed by Nicarnica Aviation, which quantifies SO2 and ash on volcanic plumes, based on the infrared radiance at specific wavelengths through the application of filters. Three Nicair1 (first model) have been acquired by the Geological Survey of Chile in order to study degassing of active volcanoes. Several trials with the instruments have been performed in northern Chilean volcanoes, and have proven that the intervals of retrieved SO2 concentration and fluxes are as expected. Measurements were also performed at Villarrica volcano, and a location to install a ''fixed'' camera, at 8km from the crater, was discovered here. It is a coffee house with electrical power, wifi network, polite and committed owners and a full view of the volcano summit. The first measurements are being made and processed in order to have full day and week of SO2 emissions, analyze data transfer and storage, improve the remote control of the instrument and notebook in case of breakdown, web-cam/GoPro support, and the goal of the project: which is to implement a fixed station to monitor and study the Villarrica volcano with a Nicair1 integrating and comparing these results with other remote sensing instruments. This works also looks upon the strengthen of bonds with the community by developing teaching material and giving talks to communicate volcanic hazards and other geoscience topics to the people who live "just around the corner" from one of the most active volcanoes

  9. SO2 camera measurements at Lastarria volcano and Lascar volcano in Chile (United States)

    Lübcke, Peter; Bobrowski, Nicole; Dinger, Florian; Klein, Angelika; Kuhn, Jonas; Platt, Ulrich


    The SO2 camera is a remote-sensing technique that measures volcanic SO2 emissions via the strong SO2 absorption structures in the UV using scattered solar radiation as a light source. The 2D-imagery (usually recorded with a frame rate of up to 1 Hz) allows new insights into degassing processes of volcanoes. Besides the large advantage of high frequency sampling the spatial resolution allows to investigate SO2 emissions from individual fumaroles and not only the total SO2 emission flux of a volcano, which is often dominated by the volcanic plume. Here we present SO2 camera measurements that were made during the CCVG workshop in Chile in November 2014. Measurements were performed at Lastarria volcano, a 5700 m high stratovolcano and Lascar volcano, a 5600 m high stratovolcano both in northern Chile on 21 - 22 November, 2014 and on 26 - 27 November, 2014, respectively. At both volcanoes measurements were conducted from a distance of roughly 6-7 km under close to ideal conditions (low solar zenith angle, a very dry and cloudless atmosphere and an only slightly condensed plume). However, determination of absolute SO2 emission rates proves challenging as part of the volcanic plume hovered close to the ground. The volcanic plume therefore is in front of the mountain in our camera images. An SO2 camera system consisting of a UV sensitive CCD and two UV band-pass filters (centered at 315 nm and 330 nm) was used. The two band-pass filters are installed in a rotating wheel and images are taken with both filter sequentially. The instrument used a CCD with 1024 x 1024 pixels and an imaging area of 13.3 mm x 13.3 mm. In combination with the focal length of 32 mm this results in a field-of-view of 25° x 25°. The calibration of the instrument was performed with help of a DOAS instrument that is co-aligned with the SO2 camera. We will present images and SO2 emission rates from both volcanoes. At Lastarria gases are emitted from three different fumarole fields and we will attempt

  10. Imaging magma plumbing beneath Askja volcano, Iceland (United States)

    Greenfield, Tim; White, Robert S.


    Volcanoes during repose periods are not commonly monitored by dense instrumentation networks and so activity during periods of unrest is difficult to put in context. We have operated a dense seismic network of 3-component, broadband instruments around Askja, a large central volcano in the Northern Volcanic Zone, Iceland, since 2006. Askja last erupted in 1961, with a relatively small basaltic lava flow. Since 1975 the central caldera has been subsiding and there has been no indication of volcanic activity. Despite this, Askja has been one of the more seismically active volcanoes in Iceland. The majority of these events are due to an extensive geothermal area within the caldera and tectonically induced earthquakes to the northeast which are not related to the magma plumbing system. More intriguing are the less numerous deeper earthquakes at 12-24km depth, situated in three distinct areas within the volcanic system. These earthquakes often show a frequency content which is lower than the shallower activity, but they still show strong P and S wave arrivals indicative of brittle failure, despite their location being well below the brittle-ductile boundary, which, in Askja is ~7km bsl. These earthquakes indicate the presence of melt moving or degassing at depth while the volcano is not inflating, as only high strain rates or increased pore fluid pressures would cause brittle fracture in what is normally an aseismic region in the ductile zone. The lower frequency content must be the result of a slower source time function as earthquakes which are both high frequency and low frequency come from the same cluster, thereby discounting a highly attenuating lower crust. To image the plumbing system beneath Askja, local and regional earthquakes have been used as sources to solve for the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Travel-time tables were created using a finite difference technique and the residuals were used to solve simultaneously for both the earthquake locations

  11. Lahar Hazard Modeling at Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador (United States)

    Sorensen, O. E.; Rose, W. I.; Jaya, D.


    Tungurahua Volcano (Lat. 01^o28'S; Long. 78^o27'W), located in the central Ecuadorian Andes, is an active edifice that rises more than 3 km above surrounding topography. Since European settlement in 1532, Tungurahua has experienced four major eruptive episodes: 1641-1646, 1773-1781, 1886-1888 and 1916-1918 (Hall et al, JVGR V91; p1-21, 1999). In September 1999, Tungurahua began a new period of activity that continues to the present. During this time, the volcano has erupted daily, depositing ash and blocks on its steep flanks. A pattern of continuing eruptions, coupled with rainfall up to 28 mm in a 6 hour period (rain data collected in Baños at 6-hr intervals, 3000 meters below Tungurahua’s summit), has produced an environment conducive to lahar mobilization. Tungurahua volcano presents an immediate hazard to the town of Baños, an important tourist destination and cultural center with a population of about 25,000 residents located 8 km from the crater. During the current eruptive episode, lahars have occurred as often as 3 times per week on the northern and western slopes of the volcano. Consequently, the only north-south trending highway on the west side of Tungurahua has been completely severed at the intersection of at least ten drainages, where erosion has exceeded 10 m since 1999. The La Pampa quebrada, located 1 km west of Baños, is the most active of Tungurahua's drainages. At this location, where the slope is moderate, lahars continue to inundate the only highway linking Baños to the Pan American Highway. Because of steep topography, the conventional approach of measuring planimetric inundation areas to determine the scale of lahars could not be employed. Instead, cross sections were measured in the channels using volume/cross-sectional inundation relationships determined by (Iverson et al, GSABull V110; no. 8, p972-984, 1998). After field observations of the lahars, LAHARZ, a program used in a geographic information system (GIS) to objectively map

  12. 36 CFR 7.25 - Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. (United States)


    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. 7.25 Section 7.25 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.25 Hawaii Volcanoes National Park....

  13. A Probabilistic Approach for Real-Time Volcano Surveillance (United States)

    Cannavo, F.; Cannata, A.; Cassisi, C.; Di Grazia, G.; Maronno, P.; Montalto, P.; Prestifilippo, M.; Privitera, E.; Gambino, S.; Coltelli, M.


    Continuous evaluation of the state of potentially dangerous volcanos plays a key role for civil protection purposes. Presently, real-time surveillance of most volcanoes worldwide is essentially delegated to one or more human experts in volcanology, who interpret data coming from different kind of monitoring networks. Unfavorably, the coupling of highly non-linear and complex volcanic dynamic processes leads to measurable effects that can show a large variety of different behaviors. Moreover, due to intrinsic uncertainties and possible failures in some recorded data, the volcano state needs to be expressed in probabilistic terms, thus making the fast volcano state assessment sometimes impracticable for the personnel on duty at the control rooms. With the aim of aiding the personnel on duty in volcano surveillance, we present a probabilistic graphical model to estimate automatically the ongoing volcano state from all the available different kind of measurements. The model consists of a Bayesian network able to represent a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph. The model variables are both the measurements and the possible states of the volcano through the time. The model output is an estimation of the probability distribution of the feasible volcano states. We tested the model on the Mt. Etna (Italy) case study by considering a long record of multivariate data from 2011 to 2015 and cross-validated it. Results indicate that the proposed model is effective and of great power for decision making purposes.

  14. Using Google Earth to Study the Basic Characteristics of Volcanoes (United States)

    Schipper, Stacia; Mattox, Stephen


    Landforms, natural hazards, and the change in the Earth over time are common material in state and national standards. Volcanoes exemplify these standards and readily capture the interest and imagination of students. With a minimum of training, students can recognize erupted materials and types of volcanoes; in turn, students can relate these…

  15. Volcano ecology: Disturbance characteristics and assembly of biological communities (United States)

    Volcanic eruptions are powerful expressions of Earth’s geophysical forces which have shaped and influenced ecological systems since the earliest days of life. The study of the interactions of volcanoes and ecosystems, termed volcano ecology, focuses on the ecological responses of organisms and biolo...

  16. Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona (United States)

    Stephens, Scott L.; Boerner, Ralph E.J.; Maghaddas, Jason J.; Maghaddas, Emily E.Y.; Collins, Brandon M.; Dow, Christopher B.; Edminster, Carl; Fiedler, Carl E.; Fry, Danny L.; Hartsough, Bruce R.; Keeley, Jon E.; Knapp, Eric E.; McIver, James D.; Skinner, Carl N.; Youngblood, Andrew P.


    Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire-induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire-only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10–80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30–60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from 50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

  17. Effects of Lakes on Wildfire Activity in the Boreal Forests of Saskatchewan, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott E. Nielsen


    Full Text Available Large lakes can act as firebreaks resulting in distinct patterns in the forest mosaic. Although this is well acknowledged, much less is known about how wildfire is affected by different landscape measures of water and their interactions. Here we examine how these factors relate to historic patterns of wildfire over a 35-year period (1980–2014 for the boreal forest of Saskatchewan, Canada. This includes the amount of water in different-sized neighborhoods, the presence of islands, and the direction, distance, and shape of nearest lake of different sizes. All individual factors affected wildfire presence, with lake sizes ≥5000 ha and amount of water within a 1000-ha surrounding area the most supported spatial scales. Overall, wildfires were two-times less likely on islands, more likely further from lakes that were circular in shape, and in areas with less surrounding water. Interactive effects were common, including the effect of direction to lake as a function of distance from lakeshore and amount of surrounding water. Our results point to a strong, but complex, bottom-up control of local wildfire activity based on the configuration of natural firebreaks. In fact, fire rotation periods predicted for one area varied more than 15-fold (<47 to >700 years depending on local patterns in lakes. Old-growth forests within this fire-prone ecosystem are therefore likely to depend on the surrounding configuration of larger lakes.

  18. Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana: Chapter 1 (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Paveglio, Travis B; Barnett, Yan; Silverstein, Robin; Hardy, Michael; Keane, Robert; Loehman, Rachel; Clark, Anthony; Fagre, Daniel B.; Venn, Tyron; Stockmann, Keith


    Wildfire damages to private residences in the United States and elsewhere have increased as a result of expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and other factors. Understanding this unwelcome trend requires analytical frameworks that simulate how various interacting social, economic, and biophysical factors influence those damages. A methodological framework is developed for simulating expected residential property losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], which is a probabilistic monetary measure of wildfire risk to residential properties in the WUI. E(RLW) is simulated for Flathead County, Montana for five, 10-year subperiods covering the period 2010-2059, under various assumptions about future climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management. Results show statistically significant increases in the spatial extent of WUI properties, the number of residential structures at risk from wildfire, and E(RLW) over the 50-year evaluation period for both the county and smaller subareas (i.e., neighborhoods and parcels). The E(RLW) simulation framework presented here advances the field of wildfire risk assessment by providing a finer-scale tool that incorporates a set of dynamic, interacting processes. The framework can be applied using other scenarios for climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management, and in other areas.

  19. Modelling spatial patterns and temporal trends of wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Barreal


    Full Text Available Aim of study: The goal of this paper is to analyse the importance of the main contributing factors to the occurrence of wildfires. Area of study: We employ data from the region of Galicia during 2001-2010; although the similarities shared between this area and other rural areas may allow extrapolation of the present results. Material and Methods: The spatial dependence is analysed by using the Moran’s I and LISA statistics. We also conduct an econometric analysis modelling both, the number of fires and the relative size of afflicted woodland area as dependent variables, which depend on the climatic, land cover variables, and socio-economic characteristics of the affected areas. Fixed effects and random effect models are estimated in order to control for the heterogeneity between the Forest Districts in Galicia. Main results: Moran’s I and LISA statistics show that there is spatial dependence in the occurrence of Galician wildfires. Econometrics models show that climatology, socioeconomic variables, and temporal trends are also important to study both, the number of wildfires and the burned-forest ratio. Research highlights: We conclude that in addition to direct forest actions, other agricultural or social public plans, can help to reduce wildfires in rural areas or wildland-urban areas. Based on these conclusions, a number of guidelines are provided that may foster the development of better forest management policies in order to reduce the occurrence of wildfires.

  20. Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America (United States)

    Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.


    Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

  1. Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People's Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; Bolin, Bob


    This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

  2. Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics (United States)

    Taufik, Muh; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Jones, Philip D.; Murdiyarso, Daniel; van Lanen, Henny A. J.


    Borneo's diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition and influencing regional climate processes. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation.

  3. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment. (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, David E; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W; Ager, Alan A


    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR. Analyzing fire effects has to date presented a major challenge to integrated risk assessments, due to a limited understanding of the type and magnitude of changes wrought by wildfire to ecological and other nonmarket values. This work advances wildfire effects analysis, recognizing knowledge uncertainty and appropriately managing it through the use of an expert systems approach. Specifically, this work entailed consultation with 10 fire and fuels program management officials from federal agencies with fire management responsibilities in order to define quantitative resource response relationships as a function of fire intensity. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool, using the state of Oregon as a case study.

  4. Hydrologic Effects of Clearcutting and Wildfire on Steep Granitic Slopes in Idaho (United States)

    Megahan, Walter F.


    Many of the environmental impacts of logging and wildfire are caused by changes in the hydrologic response of slopes after disturbances. This study was conducted to evaluate changes in inflow, storage, and outflow for 3-year periods before and after clearcut logging and wildfire on two steep, granitic microwatersheds in Idaho. Clearcutting alone and clearcutting plus wildfire increased annual peak snow water equivalent and snowmelt rates an average of 41% and 30%, respectively. The greater volume and rate of snowmelt caused respective increases in the peak piezometric rise and in total piezometric storage, amounting to 47% and 27%. Accordingly, the total volume of subsurface flow intercepted by the roadcut was increased 96% and was accompanied by 27% greater peak flow rates. None of the above responses were detectable on an adjacent watershed that was burned by wildfire alone. Evapotranspiration was reduced on both watersheds after clearcutting or wildfire, as indicated by increases in the unsaturated soil water content at the end of the growing season amounting to 44 and 72%, respectively. Accelerated mass erosion on clearcut slopes, and accelerated surface and mass erosion on roads and in channels below roads, can result from such changes.

  5. Quantifying the Effects of Wildfire Severity on Snow Water Equivalent in the Sierra Nevada (United States)

    Nguyen, A.; Cunningham, S.; Sodergren, C.; Anzelc, J.; Cate, N.; Arya, V.


    Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is a crucial component of the California water supply. Climate change effects on forest ecosystems in this region have reduced snowpack and resulted in earlier snowmelt. Wildfire frequency and severity in the Sierra Nevada have also increased, due to higher temperatures, drought, and a legacy of fire suppression policies leading to fuel loads augmented beyond the historic range of variability. These combined factors have the potential to severely impact California water supply. Using 2014 California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate data and automated classification of various Landsat imagery, this study geospatially quantified the effects of low, moderate, and high- severity wildfire on snowpack and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada. An assessment of modeled SWE data were also conducted to examine its usefulness in better understanding areas effected by wildfire. Results indicate little to no significant change in post-fire SWE for high and moderate severity wildfire, however, delineated a significant decrease in post-fire SWE in the low severity wildfire. Additionally, tests show little no significant change in fractional snow cover post-fire. This use of remote sensing and modeled data will assist in decision and policy making related to management of forest ecosystems and water resources within the Sierra Nevada.

  6. Forest Structure Affects Soil Mercury Losses in the Presence and Absence of Wildfire. (United States)

    Homann, Peter S; Darbyshire, Robyn L; Bormann, Bernard T; Morrissette, Brett A


    Soil is an important, dynamic component of regional and global mercury (Hg) cycles. This study evaluated how changes in forest soil Hg masses caused by atmospheric deposition and wildfire are affected by forest structure. Pre and postfire soil Hg measurements were made over two decades on replicate experimental units of three prefire forest structures (mature unthinned, mature thinned, clear-cut) in Douglas-fir dominated forest of southwestern Oregon. In the absence of wildfire, O-horizon Hg decreased by 60% during the 14 years after clearcutting, possibly the result of decreased atmospheric deposition due to the smaller-stature vegetative canopy; in contrast, no change was observed in mature unthinned and thinned forest. Wildfire decreased O-horizon Hg by >88% across all forest structures and decreased mineral-soil (0 to 66 mm depth) Hg by 50% in thinned forest and clear-cut. The wildfire-associated soil Hg loss was positively related to the amount of surface fine wood that burned during the fire, the proportion of area that burned at >700 °C, fire severity as indicated by tree mortality, and soil C loss. Loss of soil Hg due to the 200,000 ha wildfire was more than four times the annual atmospheric Hg emissions from human activities in Oregon.

  7. Monte Carlo Volcano Seismic Moment Tensors (United States)

    Waite, G. P.; Brill, K. A.; Lanza, F.


    Inverse modeling of volcano seismic sources can provide insight into the geometry and dynamics of volcanic conduits. But given the logistical challenges of working on an active volcano, seismic networks are typically deficient in spatial and temporal coverage; this potentially leads to large errors in source models. In addition, uncertainties in the centroid location and moment-tensor components, including volumetric components, are difficult to constrain from the linear inversion results, which leads to a poor understanding of the model space. In this study, we employ a nonlinear inversion using a Monte Carlo scheme with the objective of defining robustly resolved elements of model space. The model space is randomized by centroid location and moment tensor eigenvectors. Point sources densely sample the summit area and moment tensors are constrained to a randomly chosen geometry within the inversion; Green's functions for the random moment tensors are all calculated from modeled single forces, making the nonlinear inversion computationally reasonable. We apply this method to very-long-period (VLP) seismic events that accompany minor eruptions at Fuego volcano, Guatemala. The library of single force Green's functions is computed with a 3D finite-difference modeling algorithm through a homogeneous velocity-density model that includes topography, for a 3D grid of nodes, spaced 40 m apart, within the summit region. The homogenous velocity and density model is justified by long wavelength of VLP data. The nonlinear inversion reveals well resolved model features and informs the interpretation through a better understanding of the possible models. This approach can also be used to evaluate possible station geometries in order to optimize networks prior to deployment.

  8. VALVE: Volcano Analysis and Visualization Environment (United States)

    Cervelli, D. P.; Cervelli, P.; Miklius, A.; Krug, R.; Lisowski, M.


    Modern volcano observatories collect data using a wide variety of instruments. Visualizing these disparate data on a common time base is critical to interpreting and reacting to geophysical changes. With this in mind, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) created Valve, the Volcano Analysis and Visualization Environment. Valve integrates a wide range of both continuous and discontinuous data sources into a common, internet web-browser based interface that allows scientists to interactively select and visualize these data on a common time base and, if appropriate, in three dimensions. Advances in modern internet browser technology allow for a truly interactive user-interface experience that could previously only be found in stand-alone applications--all while maintaining client platform independence and network portability. This system aids more traditional in-depth analysis by providing a common front-end to retrieving raw data. In most cases, the raw data are being served from an SQL database, a system that lends itself to quickly retrieving, logically arranging, and safely storing data. Beyond Valve's visualization capabilities, the system also provides a variety of tools for time series analysis and source modeling. For example, a user could load several tilt and GPS time series, estimate co-seismic or co-intrusive deformation, and then model the event with an elastic point source or dislocation. From the source model, Coulomb stress changes could be calculated and compared to pre- and post-event hypocenter distribution. Employing a heavily object-oriented design, Valve is easily extensible, modular, portable, and remarkably cost efficient. Quickly visualizing arbitrary data is a trivial matter, while implementing methods for permanent, continuous data streams requires only minimal programming. Portability is ensured by using software that is readily available on a wide variety of operating systems; cost efficiency is achieved by using software that is open

  9. Copahue volcano and its regional magmatic setting (United States)

    Varekamp, J C; Zareski, J E; Camfield, L M; Todd, Erin


    Copahue volcano (Province of Neuquen, Argentina) has produced lavas and strombolian deposits over several 100,000s of years, building a rounded volcano with a 3 km elevation. The products are mainly basaltic andesites, with the 2000–2012 eruptive products the most mafic. The geochemistry of Copahue products is compared with those of the main Andes arc (Llaima, Callaqui, Tolhuaca), the older Caviahue volcano directly east of Copahue, and the back arc volcanics of the Loncopue graben. The Caviahue rocks resemble the main Andes arc suite, whereas the Copahue rocks are characterized by lower Fe and Ti contents and higher incompatible element concentrations. The rocks have negative Nb-Ta anomalies, modest enrichments in radiogenic Sr and Pb isotope ratios and slightly depleted Nd isotope ratios. The combined trace element and isotopic data indicate that Copahue magmas formed in a relatively dry mantle environment, with melting of a subducted sediment residue. The back arc basalts show a wide variation in isotopic composition, have similar water contents as the Copahue magmas and show evidence for a subducted sedimentary component in their source regions. The low 206Pb/204Pb of some backarc lava flows suggests the presence of a second endmember with an EM1 flavor in its source. The overall magma genesis is explained within the context of a subducted slab with sediment that gradually looses water, water-mobile elements, and then switches to sediment melt extracts deeper down in the subduction zone. With the change in element extraction mechanism with depth comes a depletion and fractionation of the subducted complex that is reflected in the isotope and trace element signatures of the products from the main arc to Copahue to the back arc basalts.

  10. Mechanical coupling between earthquakes, volcanos and landslides (United States)

    Feigl, K. L.; Retina Team


    "The eruption began as a large earthquake that triggered a massive landslide that culminated in a violent lateral explosion" [Malone et al., USGS 1981]. The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens taught a very powerful lesson -- that one natural hazard can trigger another. For example, earthquakes have triggered landslides in Papua New Guinea. Similarly, eruptions of Vesuvius are mechanically coupled to earthquakes in the Appenines, just as an inflating magma chamber can trigger earthquakes near Hengill volcano in SW Iceland and on the Izu Peninsula in Japan. The Luzon earthquake may have triggered the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. In many of these cases, the second triggered event caused more damage than the initial one. If we can better understand the mechanical coupling underlying the temporal and spatial correlation of such events, we will improve our assessments of the hazards they pose. The RETINA project has been funded by the European Commission's 5th Framework to study couplings between three classes of natural hazards: earthquakes, landslides, and volcanoes. These three phenomena are linked to and by the stress field in the crust. If the stress increases enough, the material will fail catastrophically. For example, magma injection beneath a volcano can trigger an earthquake by increasing stress on a fault. Increasing shear stress on unconsolidated materials on steep slopes can trigger landslides. Such stress change triggers may also be tectonic (from plate driving forces), hydrological (from heavy rain), or volcanic (magmatic injection). Any of these events can perturb the stress field enough to trigger another event. Indeed, stress changes as small as 0.1 bar (0.01 MPa) suffice to trigger an earthquake. If the medium is close to failure, this small change can increase the Coulomb stress beyond the yield threshold, breaking the material. This quantity is the primary means we will use for describing mechanical coupling. In this paper, we will review several case

  11. Geology of El Chichon volcano, Chiapas, Mexico (United States)

    Duffield, W.A.; Tilling, R.I.; Canul, R.


    The (pre-1982) 850-m-high andesitic stratovolcano El Chicho??n, active during Pleistocene and Holocene time, is located in rugged, densely forested terrain in northcentral Chiapas, Me??xico. The nearest neighboring Holocene volcanoes are 275 km and 200 km to the southeast and northwest, respectively. El Chicho??n is built on Tertiary siltstone and sandstone, underlain by Cretaceous dolomitic limestone; a 4-km-deep bore hole near the east base of the volcano penetrated this limestone and continued 770 m into a sequence of Jurassic or Cretaceous evaporitic anhydrite and halite. The basement rocks are folded into generally northwest-trending anticlines and synclines. El Chicho??n is built over a small dome-like structure superposed on a syncline, and this structure may reflect cumulative deformation related to growth of a crustal magma reservoir beneath the volcano. The cone of El Chicho??n consists almost entirely of pyroclastic rocks. The pre-1982 cone is marked by a 1200-m-diameter (explosion?) crater on the southwest flank and a 1600-m-diameter crater apparently of similar origin at the summit, a lava dome partly fills each crater. The timing of cone and dome growth is poorly known. Field evidence indicates that the flank dome is older than the summit dome, and K-Ar ages from samples high on the cone suggest that the flank dome is older than about 276,000 years. At least three pyroclastic eruptions have occurred during the past 1250 radiocarbon years. Nearly all of the pyroclastic and dome rocks are moderately to highly porphyritic andesite, with plagioclase, hornblende and clinopyroxene the most common phenocrysts. Geologists who mapped El Chicho??n in 1980 and 1981 warned that the volcano posed a substantial hazard to the surrounding region. This warning was proven to be prophetic by violent eruptions that occurred in March and April of 1982. These eruptions blasted away nearly all of the summit dome, blanketed the surrounding region with tephra, and sent

  12. Mud Volcanoes as Exploration Targets on Mars (United States)

    Allen, Carlton C.; Oehler, Dorothy Z.


    Tens of thousands of high-albedo mounds occur across the southern part of the Acidalia impact basin on Mars. These structures have geologic, physical, mineralogic, and morphologic characteristics consistent with an origin from a sedimentary process similar to terrestrial mud volcanism. The potential for mud volcanism in the Northern Plains of Mars has been recognized for some time, with candidate mud volcanoes reported from Utopia, Isidis, northern Borealis, Scandia, and the Chryse-Acidalia region. We have proposed that the profusion of mounds in Acidalia is a consequence of this basin's unique geologic setting as the depocenter for the tune fraction of sediments delivered by the outflow channels from the highlands.

  13. Galactic Super-volcano in Action (United States)


    A galactic "super-volcano" in the massive galaxy M87 is erupting and blasting gas outwards, as witnessed by NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and NSF's Very Large Array. The cosmic volcano is being driven by a giant black hole in the galaxy's center and preventing hundreds of millions of new stars from forming. Astronomers studying this black hole and its effects have been struck by the remarkable similarities between it and a volcano in Iceland that made headlines earlier this year. At a distance of about 50 million light years, M87 is relatively close to Earth and lies at the center of the Virgo cluster, which contains thousands of galaxies. M87's location, coupled with long observations over Chandra's lifetime, has made it an excellent subject for investigations of how a massive black hole impacts its environment. "Our results show in great detail that supermassive black holes have a surprisingly good control over the evolution of the galaxies in which they live," said Norbert Werner of the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology at Stanford University and the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, who led one of two papers describing the study. "And it doesn't stop there. The black hole's reach extends ever farther into the entire cluster, similar to how one small volcano can affect practically an entire hemisphere on Earth." The cluster surrounding M87 is filled with hot gas glowing in X-ray light, which is detected by Chandra. As this gas cools, it can fall toward the galaxy's center where it should continue to cool even faster and form new stars. However, radio observations with the Very Large Array suggest that in M87 jets of very energetic particles produced by the black hole interrupt this process. These jets lift up the relatively cool gas near the center of the galaxy and produce shock waves in the galaxy's atmosphere because of their supersonic speed. The scientists involved in this research have found the interaction of this cosmic

  14. Volcano morphometry and volume scaling on Venus (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Williams, R. S., Jr.


    A broad variety of volcanic edifices have been observed on Venus. They ranged in size from the limits of resolution of the Magellan SAR (i.e., hundreds of meters) to landforms over 500 km in basal diameter. One of the key questions pertaining to volcanism on Venus concerns the volume eruption rate or VER, which is linked to crustal productivity over time. While less than 3 percent of the surface area of Venus is manifested as discrete edifices larger than 50 km in diameter, a substantial component of the total crustal volume of the planet over the past 0.5 Ga is related to isolated volcanoes, which are certainly more easily studied than the relatively diffusely defined plains volcanic flow units. Thus, we have focused our efforts on constraining the volume productivity of major volcanic edifices larger than 100 km in basal diameter. Our approach takes advantage of the topographic data returned by Magellan, as well as our database of morphometric statistics for the 20 best known lava shields of Iceland, plus Mauna Loa of Hawaii. As part of this investigation, we have quantified the detailed morphometry of nearly 50 intermediate to large scale edifices, with particular attention to their shape systematics. We found that a set of venusian edifices which include Maat, Sapas, Tepev, Sif, Gula, a feature at 46 deg S, 215 deg E, as well as the shield-like structure at 10 deg N, 275 deg E are broadly representative of the approx. 400 volcanic landforms larger than 50 km. The cross-sectional shapes of these 7 representative edifices range from flattened cones (i.e., Sif) similar to classic terrestrial lava shields such as Mauna Loa and Skjaldbreidur, to rather dome-like structures which include Maat and Sapas. The majority of these larger volcanoes surveyed as part of our study displayed cross-sectional topographies with paraboloidal shaped, in sharp contrast with the cone-like appearance of most simple terrestrial lava shields. In order to more fully explore the

  15. Volcano deformation and subdaily GPS products (United States)

    Grapenthin, Ronni

    Volcanic unrest is often accompanied by hours to months of deformation of the ground that is measurable with high-precision GPS. Although GPS receivers are capable of near continuous operation, positions are generally estimated for daily intervals, which I use to infer characteristics of a volcano’s plumbing system. However, GPS based volcano geodesy will not be useful in early warning scenarios unless positions are estimated at high rates and in real time. Visualization and analysis of dynamic and static deformation during the 2011 Tohokuoki earthquake in Japan motivates the application of high-rate GPS from a GPS seismology perspective. I give examples of dynamic seismic signals and their evolution to the final static offset in 30 s and 1 s intervals, which demonstrates the enhancement of subtle rupture dynamics through increased temporal resolution. This stresses the importance of processing data at recording intervals to minimize signal loss. Deformation during the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, suggested net deflation by 0.05 km³ in three distinct phases. Mid-crustal aseismic precursory inflation began in May 2008 and was detected by a single continuous GPS station about 28 km NE of Redoubt. Deflation during the explosive and effusive phases was sourced from a vertical ellipsoidal reservoir at about 7-11.5 km. From this I infer a model for the temporal evolution of a complex plumbing system of at least 2 sources during the eruption. Using subdaily GPS positioning solutions I demonstrate that plumes can be detected and localized by utilizing information on phase residuals. The GPS network at Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka, records network wide subsidence at rapid rates between 8 and 12 mm/yr from 2005-2010. I hypothesize this to be caused by continuous deflation of a ˜30 km deep sill under Kluchevskoy Volcano. Interestingly, 1-2 explosive events per year cause little to no deformation at any site other than the summit site closest to the vent. I

  16. Magmatic gas scrubbing: Implications for volcano monitoring (United States)

    Symonds, R.B.; Gerlach, T.M.; Reed, M.H.


    Despite the abundance of SO2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915??C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25??C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic-gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas-ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H2S(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO2(g) and most HCl(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl(g) degassing from pH 100 t/d (tons per day) of SO2(g) in addition to CO2(g) and H2S(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  17. Slow slip event at Kilauea Volcano (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Miklius, Asta; Wilson, J. David; Okubo, Paul G.; Montgomery-Brown, Emily; Segall, Paul; Brooks, Benjamin; Foster, James; Wolfe, Cecily; Syracuse, Ellen; Thurbe, Clifford


    Early in the morning of 1 February 2010 (UTC; early afternoon 31 January 2010 local time), continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt instruments detected a slow slip event (SSE) on the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. The SSE lasted at least 36 hours and resulted in a maximum of about 3 centimeters of seaward displacement. About 10 hours after the start of the slip, a flurry of small earthquakes began (Figure 1) in an area of the south flank recognized as having been seismically active during past SSEs [Wolfe et al., 2007], suggesting that the February earthquakes were triggered by stress associated with slip [Segall et al., 2006].

  18. Mud volcanoes of trinidad as astrobiological analogs for martian environments. (United States)

    Hosein, Riad; Haque, Shirin; Beckles, Denise M


    Eleven onshore mud volcanoes in the southern region of Trinidad have been studied as analog habitats for possible microbial life on Mars. The profiles of the 11 mud volcanoes are presented in terms of their physical, chemical, mineralogical, and soil properties. The mud volcanoes sampled all emitted methane gas consistently at 3% volume. The average pH for the mud volcanic soil was 7.98. The average Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) was found to be 2.16 kg/mol, and the average Percentage Water Content was 34.5%. Samples from three of the volcanoes, (i) Digity; (ii) Piparo and (iii) Devil's Woodyard were used to culture bacterial colonies under anaerobic conditions indicating possible presence of methanogenic microorganisms. The Trinidad mud volcanoes can serve as analogs for the Martian environment due to similar geological features found extensively on Mars in Acidalia Planitia and the Arabia Terra region.

  19. Mud Volcanoes of Trinidad as Astrobiological Analogs for Martian Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riad Hosein


    Full Text Available Eleven onshore mud volcanoes in the southern region of Trinidad have been studied as analog habitats for possible microbial life on Mars. The profiles of the 11 mud volcanoes are presented in terms of their physical, chemical, mineralogical, and soil properties. The mud volcanoes sampled all emitted methane gas consistently at 3% volume. The average pH for the mud volcanic soil was 7.98. The average Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC was found to be 2.16 kg/mol, and the average Percentage Water Content was 34.5%. Samples from three of the volcanoes, (i Digity; (ii Piparo and (iii Devil’s Woodyard were used to culture bacterial colonies under anaerobic conditions indicating possible presence of methanogenic microorganisms. The Trinidad mud volcanoes can serve as analogs for the Martian environment due to similar geological features found extensively on Mars in Acidalia Planitia and the Arabia Terra region.

  20. Water in volcanoes: evolution, storage and rapid release during landslides. (United States)

    Delcamp, Audray; Roberti, Gioachino; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin


    Volcanoes can store and drain water that is used as a valuable resource by populations living on their slopes. The water drainage and storage pattern depend on the volcano lithologies and structure, as well as the geological and hydrometric settings. The drainage and storage pattern will change according to the hydrometric conditions, the vegetation cover, the eruptive activity and the long- and short-term volcano deformation. Inspired by our field observations and based on geology and structure of volcanic edifices, on hydrogeological studies, and modelling of water flow in opening fractures, we develop a model of water storage and drainage linked with volcano evolution. This paper offers a first-order general model of water evolution in volcanoes.

  1. Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA (United States)

    Jian Yang; Peter J. Weisberg; Thomas E. Dilts; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Alison Stanton; Carl Skinner


    Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP)...

  2. Dormant season grazing may decrease wildfire probability by increasing fuel moisture and reducing fuel amount and continuity (United States)

    1. Wildfire is an ecological and economic risk for many semi-arid rangelands across the globe. This coupled with extreme wildfire seasons and mega-fires over the last decade have resulted in a call for more pre-suppression management actions. Dormant season grazing has been suggested as a treatment...

  3. Effects of wildfire on catchment runoff response: a modeling approach to detect changes in snow-dominated forested catchments (United States)

    Jan Seibert; Jeffrey J. McDonnell; Richard D. Woodsmith


    Wildfire is an important disturbance affecting hydrological processes through alteration of vegetation cover and soil characteristics. The effects of fire on hydrological systems at the catchment scale are not well known, largely because site specific data from both before and after wildfire are rare. In this study a modelling approach was employed for change detection...

  4. Social assessment for the Wenatchee National Forest wildfires of 1994: targeted analysis for the Leavenworth, Entiat, and Chelan Ranger Districts. (United States)

    Matthew S. Carroll; Angela J. Findley; Keith A. Blatner; Sandra Rodriguez Mendez; Steven E. Daniels; Gregg B. Walker


    A purposive social assessment across three communities explored reactions of local residents to wildfires in the Wenatchee National Forest in north-central Washington. Research concentrated on identifying the diversity of fundamental beliefs and values held by local residents about wildfire and forest management. Particular emphasis was given to investigating community...

  5. Effects of Near-Surface Atmospheric Stability and Moisture on Wildfire Behavior and Consequences for Haines Index (United States)

    Ruiyu Sun; Mary Ann Jenkins


    Since the 1950s, extensive research has been conducted to investigate the relationship between near-surface atmospheric conditions and large wildfire growth and occurrence. Observational studies have demonstrated that near-surface dryness (e-g., Fahnestock 1965) and atmospheric instability (e-g., Brotak and Reifsnyder 1977) are correlated with large wildfire growth and...

  6. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.


    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  7. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. (United States)


    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. (a) Regulated area. The regulated area includes all waters of...

  8. Effect of wildfires on the genetic microbial diversity in forest soils from Canary Islands (Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rodríguez


    Full Text Available Wildfires produce several ecological and environmental impacts on the physical and chemical soil characteristics, as well as on the properties and dynamics of soil microbial populations. Microorganisms are good indicators of ecosystem function and sustainability and therefore the studies about the impact of fire on microbial communities is relevant to understand the role of fire in ecosystem functioning. Although several authors have provided data about total microbial biomass and activity in soils affected by fires, there is little information about the composition and evolution of soil microbial populations after the passage of fire. In this work the effect of wildfires on the genetic diversity of microbial populations in soils from the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain is studied. The final objective was to get information about the recovery of soil functionality after wildfires.

  9. An Assessment of Land Surface and Lightning Characteristics Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires (United States)

    Coy, James; Schultz, Christopher J.; Case, Jonathan L.


    Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? Combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output, and Compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires. Statistical differences between suspected fire-starters and non-fire-starters were peak-current dependent 0-10 cm Volumetric and Relative Soil Moisture comparisons were statistically dependent to at least the p = 0.05 independence level for both polarity flash types Suspected fire-starters typically occurred in areas of lower soil moisture than non-fire-starters. GVF value comparisons were only found to be statistically dependent for -CG flashes. However, random sampling of the -CG non-fire starter dataset revealed that this relationship may not always hold.

  10. Economics of wildfire management the development and application of suppression expenditure models

    CERN Document Server

    Hand, Michael S; Liang, Jingjing; Thompson, Matthew P


    In this age of climatic and financial uncertainty, it becomes increasingly important to balance the cost, benefits and risk of wildfire management. In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in drastic damage and loss of life. An associated rapid increase in fire management costs has consumed higher portions of budgets of public entities involved in wildfire management, challenging their ability to fulfill other responsibilities. Increased public scrutiny highlights the need to improve wildland fire management for cost effectiveness. This book closely examines the development of basic wildfire suppression cost models for the United States and their application to a wide range of settings from informing incident decision making to programmatic review. The book also explores emerging trends in suppression costs and introduces new spatially explicit cost models to account for characteristics of the burned landscape. Finally, it discusses how emerging risk assessmen...

  11. Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments: Chapter 20 (United States)

    Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tillery, Anne C.; Scott, Joe H.


    Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

  12. The volcanoes and clouds of Venus (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.


    One of the earth's most intriguing features is its geologic activity. However, volcanic eruptions have not been observed on any other body in the solar system, except for a detection of such eruptions on Jupiter's moon Io. As in a number of respects Venus is similar to earth, questions arise regarding the presence of active volcanoes on Venus. In the past, the study of such questions was made difficult or impossible by the layer of clouds surrounding the Venusian surface. In the past half decade the situation has changed. These changes are mainly related to studies based on a utilization of radio waves and microwaves which can pass through the cloud layer. Such studies have been conducted with the aid of terrestrial radio telescopes, the Pioneer Venus satellite orbiting Venus, and two Russian spacecraft. The results of these studies are discussed in detail. It appears that there are active volcanoes on Venus. This volcanism is a key link in the chemical cycle which produces the clouds. The levels of volcanic activity on Venus and earth seem to be roughly comparable.

  13. Volcano-ice interactions on Mars (United States)

    Allen, C. C.


    Central volcanic eruptions beneath terrestrial glaciers have built steep-sided, flat-topped mountains composed of pillow lava, glassy tuff, capping flows, and cones of basalt. Subglacial fissure eruptions produced ridges of similar composition. In some places the products from a number of subglacial vents have combined to form widespread deposits. The morphologies of these subglacial volcanoes are distinctive enough to allow their recognition at the resolutions characteristic of Viking orbiter imagery. Analogs to terrestrial subglacial volcanoes have been identified on the northern plains and near the south polar cap of Mars. The polar feature provides probable evidence of volcanic eruptions beneath polar ice. A mixed unit of rock and ice is postulated to have overlain portions of the northern plains, with eruptions into this ground ice having produced mountains and ridges analogous to those in Iceland. Subsequent breakdown of this unit due to ice melting revealed the volcanic features. Estimated heights of these landforms indicate that the ice-rich unit once ranged from approximately 100 to 1200 m thick.

  14. Monitoring Santorini volcano (Greece) breathing from space (United States)

    Foumelis, Michael; Trasatti, Elisa; Papageorgiou, Elena; Stramondo, Salvatore; Parcharidis, Issaak


    Since its last eruption in 1950, Santorini volcano (Greece) remained in a dormant state. This is also evidenced for the period 1992-2010 by the gradual deflation signal over Nea Kameni as measured by satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) with low rates of about 5-6 mm yr-1 as well as by the absence of seismic activity within the caldera. However, at the beginning of 2011 the volcano showed signs of unrest with increased microseismic activity and significant ground uplift, reaching 14 cm within a year (2011 March-2012 March), according to InSAR time-series. ALOS PALSAR data indicate the onset of the phenomenon in early 2010 where an aseismic pre-unrest phase of increased subsidence (1-3 cm) preceded the uplift. Joint inversions of SAR and GPS velocities using spherical and spheroidal magmatic source types indicate their location offshore at about 1 km north of Nea Kameni and between 3.5 and 3.8 km depth. The estimated volume variation rate is 6 × 106 m3 yr-1 to 9 × 106 m3 yr-1. A gradual slowing in the rate of inflation within the first quarter of 2012 is apparent by ENVISAT data, while subsequent observations from RADARSAT-2 confirm the observed trend.

  15. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence


    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  16. Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark; Prochazka, Brian; Brooks, Matthew L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J.; Hagen, Christian A.; Casazza, Michael L.


    Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

  17. Interactive effects of wildfire, forest management, and isolation on amphibian and parasite abundance (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Corn, P. Stephen; Winsor H. Lowe,; R. Kenneth Honeycutt,; Sean A. Parks,


    Projected increases in wildfire and other climate-driven disturbances will affect populations and communities worldwide, including host–parasite relationships. Research in temperate forests has shown that wildfire can negatively affect amphibians, but this research has occurred primarily outside of managed landscapes where interactions with human disturbances could result in additive or synergistic effects. Furthermore, parasites represent a large component of biodiversity and can affect host fitness and population dynamics, yet they are rarely included in studies of how vertebrate hosts respond to disturbance. To determine how wildfire affects amphibians and their parasites, and whether effects differ between protected and managed landscapes, we compared abundance of two amphibians and two nematodes relative to wildfire extent and severity around wetlands in neighboring protected and managed forests (Montana, USA). Population sizes of adult, male long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum) decreased with increased burn severity, with stronger negative effects on isolated populations and in managed forests. In contrast, breeding population sizes of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) increased with burn extent in both protected and managed protected forests. Path analysis showed that the effects of wildfire on the two species of nematodes were consistent with differences in their life history and transmission strategies and the responses of their hosts. Burn severity indirectly reduced abundance of soil-transmitted Cosmocercoides variabilis through reductions in salamander abundance. Burn severity also directly reduced C. variabilis abundance, possibly though changes in soil conditions. For the aquatically transmitted nematode Gyrinicola batrachiensis, the positive effect of burn extent on density of Columbia spotted frog larvae indirectly increased parasite abundance. Our results show that effects of wildfire on amphibians depend upon burn extent

  18. Analyzing and Projecting U.S. Wildfire Potential Based on NARCCAP Regional Climate Simulations (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Mearns, L. O.


    Wildfires usually ignite and spread under hot, dry, and windy conditions. Wildfires, especially catastrophic mega-fires, have increased in recent decades in the United States and other parts of the world. Among the converging factors were extreme weather event such as extended drought. Furthermore, climate has been projected to become warmer worldwide and drier with more frequent droughts in many subtropical and mid-latitude regions including parts of the U.S. due to the greenhouse effect. As a result, wildfires are expected to increase in the future. This study analyzes current features and project future trends of wildfire potential in the continental United States. Fire potential is measured by fire indices including the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and Fosberg Fire Weather Index. The meteorological data used to calculate the fire indices are the dynamical downscaling produced by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Current fire potential generally increases from the eastern to western coast and from cool to warm season. Fire potential has large seasonal and inter-annual variability and spatial connections. Fire potential has shown overall increasing trends in recent decades. The trends are projected to continue this century due to the greenhouse effect. Future fire potential will increase significantly in the Rocky Mountains all seasons and in the Southeast during summer and autumn. Future climate change will also reduce the windows of prescribed burning, which is one of the forest management tools for reducing wildfire risks. The research results are expected to provide useful information for assessing the ecological, environmental, and social impacts of future wildfires and developing mitigation strategies.

  19. An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority. (United States)

    Adelaine, Sabrina A; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary


    Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts. Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century. Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise. This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556-562.

  20. Vegetation structure and fire weather influence variation in burn severity and fuel consumption during peatland wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Davies


    Full Text Available Temperate peatland wildfires are of significant environmental concern but information on their environmental effects is lacking. We assessed variation in burn severity and fuel consumption within and between wildfires that burnt British moorlands in 2011 and 2012. We adapted the Composite Burn Index (pCBI to provide semi-quantitative estimates of burn severity. Pre- and post-fire surface (shrubs and graminoids and ground (litter, moss, duff fuel loads associated with large wildfires were assessed using destructive sampling and analysed using a Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM. Consumption during wildfires was compared with published estimates of consumption during prescribed burns. Burn severity and fuel consumption were related to fire weather, assessed using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (FWI System, and pre-fire fuel structure. pCBI varied 1.6 fold between, and up to 1.7 fold within, wildfires. pCBI was higher where moisture codes of the FWI System indicated drier fuels. Spatial variation in pre- and post-fire fuel load accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in fuel loads. Average surface fuel consumption was a linear function of pre-fire fuel load. Average ground fuel combustion completeness could be predicted by the Buildup Index. Carbon release ranged between 0.36 and 1.00 kg C m−2. The flammability of ground fuel layers may explain the higher C release-rates seen for wildfires in comparison to prescribed burns. Drier moorland community types appear to be at greater risk of severe burns than blanket-bog communities.

  1. Cost-Effectiveness of Fuel Removals in Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces Threatened by Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Elia


    Full Text Available One of the most important environmental issues in Europe is the expansion of wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs and how this trend may affect the occurrence of wildfires. Land use changes, the abandonment of farmland, and reduced grazing has led to an increase in forested areas with an accumulation and continuity of surface fuels available for combustion. Policies based exclusively on extensive fire suppression have become ineffective in different parts of Europe. To reduce the threat of damaging and costly wildfires, European countries must develop integrated fuel management programs. This approach has proven to be one of the most cost-effective for preventing wildfires and reducing economic loss. To this end, we have conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate how much fuel must be treated to determine fuel load removals with the lowest cost per hectare of unaffected WUIs threatened by wildfires in southern Italy (Apulia region. The analysis was carried out in three stages: (i simulation of fire behavior in different fuel load reduction and wind direction scenarios; (ii estimation of WUIs affected by wildfires within the study landscape; and (iii the application of a cost-effectiveness ratio. Our results highlight the need to provide a method to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fuel removal given the increasing number and extent of WUIs in the Mediterranean landscape of Europe. Optimizing the cost-effectiveness analysis of fuel removals offers the basis for appropriately assessing wildfire prevention and budgeting financial resources. Further, this method may be readily applied toward allocating any type of intervention in landscape management.

  2. Space Radar Image of Karisoke & Virunga Volcanoes (United States)


    This is a false-color composite of Central Africa, showing the Virunga volcano chain along the borders of Rwanda, Zaire and Uganda. This area is home to the endangered mountain gorillas. The image was acquired on October 3, 1994, on orbit 58 of the space shuttle Endeavour by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR). In this image red is the L-band (horizontally transmitted, vertically received) polarization; green is the C-band (horizontally transmitted and received) polarization; and blue is the C-band (horizontally transmitted and received) polarization. The area is centered at about 2.4 degrees south latitude and 30.8 degrees east longitude. The image covers an area 56 kilometers by 70 kilometers (35 miles by 43 miles). The dark area at the top of the image is Lake Kivu, which forms the border between Zaire (to the right) and Rwanda (to the left). In the center of the image is the steep cone of Nyiragongo volcano, rising 3,465 meters (11,369 feet) high, with its central crater now occupied by a lava lake. To the left are three volcanoes, Mount Karisimbi, rising 4,500 meters (14,800 feet) high; Mount Sabinyo, rising 3,600 meters (12,000 feet) high; and Mount Muhavura, rising 4,100 meters (13,500 feet) high. To their right is Nyamuragira volcano, which is 3,053 meters (10,017 feet) tall, with radiating lava flows dating from the 1950s to the late 1980s. These active volcanoes constitute a hazard to the towns of Goma, Zaire and the nearby Rwandan refugee camps, located on the shore of Lake Kivu at the top left. This radar image highlights subtle differences in the vegetation of the region. The green patch to the center left of the image in the foothills of Karisimbi is a bamboo forest where the mountain gorillas live. The vegetation types in this area are an important factor in the habitat of mountain gorillas. Researchers at Rutgers University in New Jersey and the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund in London will use this data to produce

  3. Terrestrial Real-Time Volcano Monitoring (United States)

    Franke, M.


    As volcano monitoring involves more and different sensors from seismic to GPS receivers, from video and thermal cameras to multi-parameter probes measuring temperature, ph values and humidity in the ground and the air, it becomes important to design real-time networks that integrate and leverage the multitude of available parameters. In order to do so some simple principles need to be observed: a) a common time base for all measurements, b) a packetized general data communication protocol for acquisition and distribution, c) an open and well documented interface to the data permitting standard and emerging innovative processing, and d) an intuitive visualization platform for scientists and civil defense personnel. Although mentioned as simple principles, the list above does not necessarily lead to obvious solutions or integrated systems, which is, however, required to take advantage of the available data. Only once the different data streams are put into context to each other in terms of time and location can a broader view be obtained and additional information extracted. The presentation is a summary of currently available technologies and how they can achieve the goal of an integrated real-time volcano monitoring system. A common time base are standard for seismic and GPS networks. In different projects we extended this to video feeds and time-lapse photography. Other probes have been integrated with vault interface enclosures (VIE) as used in the Transportable Array (TA) of the USArray. The VIE can accommodate the sensors employed in volcano monitoring. The TA has shown that Antelope is a versatile and robust middleware. It provides the required packetized general communication protocol that is independent from the actual physical communication link leaving the network design to adopt appropriate and possible hybrid solutions. This applies for the data acquisition and the data/information dissemination providing both a much needed collaboration platform, as

  4. Igneous Petrogenesis of Tequila Volcano, Western Mexico (United States)

    Vázquez-Duarte, A.; Gómez-Tuena, A.; Díaz-Bravo, B.


    Tequila volcano belongs to a Quaternary volcanic chain that runs in parallel to the Middle American Trench, but that have been constructed within the so-called Tepic-Zacoalco rift: an extensional tectonic structure that has been active for the past 3.5 Ma. This unusual tectonic setting, and the existence of a high-resolution stratigraphy for the Tequila Volcanic Field (Lewis-Kenedi, 2005, Bull Volcanol), provide an excellent opportunity to study andesite petrogenesis. New comprehensive geochemical data allow the recognition of at least four different magmatic series around Tequila: 1) The Santa Rosa intraplate basalts (1.0 - 0.2 Ma), a volcanic plateau constructed along the Santiago River Fault north of Tequila volcano. These Na-alkaline basalts are olivine-phyric, have negligible subduction signatures (Ba/Nb= 11.75 - 49.36), and display Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions that correlate with fractionation indexes, probably indicating melt-crust interactions. 2) A group of vitreous domes and flows of dacitic to rhyolitic compositions, mostly contemporaneous to the Santa Rosa basalts, that were emplaced on the periphery of Tequila volcano. These rocks can have very low Sr and Eu contents but their isotopic compositions are remarkably constant and similar to the Santa Rosa basalts, probably indicating a genetic link through low pressure fractionation in the stability field of plagioclase. 3) The main edifice of Tequila volcano (~0.2 Ma) is made of two pyroxene andesites and dacites with strong subduction signatures (Ba/Nb= 53-112), that inversely correlate with MgO contents, but that follow a diverging evolutionary trend as the rest of the sequences. The isotopic compositions of Tequila main edifice can extend to slightly more enriched values, but do not correlate with fractionation indexes, thus indicating provenance from a different source. 4) The youngest activity on Tequila volcano (~0.09 Ma) is represented by amphibole bearing andesites that erupted through the

  5. Ground survey of active Central American volcanoes in November - December 1973 (United States)

    Stoiber, R. E. (Principal Investigator); Rose, W. I., Jr.


    The author has identified the following significant results. Thermal anomalies at two volcanoes, Santiaguito and Izalco, have grown in size in the past six months, based on repeated ground survey. Thermal anomalies at Pacaya volcano have became less intense in the same period. Large (500 m diameter) thermal anomalies exist at 3 volcanoes presently, and smaller scale anomalies are found at nine other volcanoes.

  6. Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire (United States)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.


    We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.

  7. Developing and Validating a Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (United States)

    Capps, S. B.; Rolinski, T.; DAgostino, B.; Vanderburg, S.; Fovell, R. G.; Cao, Y.


    Santa Ana winds, common to southern California during the fall through spring, are a type of katabatic wind that originates from a direction generally ranging from 360°/0° to 100° and is usually accompanied by very low humidity. Since fuel conditions tend to be driest from late September through the middle of November, Santa Ana winds occurring during this period have the greatest potential to produce large, devastating fires when an ignition occurs. Such catastrophic fires occurred in 1993, 2003, 2007, and 2008. Because of the destructive nature of these fires, there has been a growing desire to categorize Santa Ana wind events in much the same way that tropical cyclones have been categorized. The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat index (SAWT) is an attempt to categorize such events with respect to fire activity, based on surface wind velocity, dew point depression, and forecasted fuel conditions. The index, a USDA Forest Service product, was developed by the Forest Service in collaboration with San Diego Gas and Electric Utility (SDG&E), the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA, The Desert Research Institute (DRI), and Vertum Partners. The methodology behind the SAWT index, along with the index itself will be presented in detail. Also, there will be a discussion on the construction of a 30-year climatology of the index, which includes various meteorological and fuel parameters. We will demonstrate the usefulness of the index as another decision support tool for fire agencies and first responders, and how it could assist the general public and private industry in the preparation of critical Santa Ana wind events.

  8. Spatio-temporal clustering of wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Costa, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Caramelo, L.; Vega Orozco, C.; Kanevski, M.


    Several studies have shown that wildfires in Portugal presenthigh temporal as well as high spatial variability (Pereira et al., 2005, 2011). The identification and characterization of spatio-temporal clusters contributes to a comprehensivecharacterization of the fire regime and to improve the efficiency of fire prevention and combat activities. The main goalsin this studyare: (i) to detect the spatio-temporal clusters of burned area; and, (ii) to characterize these clusters along with the role of human and environmental factors. The data were supplied by the National Forest Authority(AFN, 2011) and comprises: (a)the Portuguese Rural Fire Database, PRFD, (Pereira et al., 2011) for the 1980-2007period; and, (b) the national mapping burned areas between 1990 and 2009. In this work, in order to complement the more common cluster analysis algorithms, an alternative approach based onscan statistics and on the permutation modelwas used. This statistical methodallows the detection of local excess events and to test if such an excess can reasonably have occurred by chance.Results obtained for different simulations performed for different spatial and temporal windows are presented, compared and interpreted.The influence of several fire factors such as (climate, vegetation type, etc.) is also assessed. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005:"Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal".Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343-3358, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011 AFN, 2011: AutoridadeFlorestalNacional (National Forest Authority). Available at

  9. Enhanced concentrations of reactive nitrogen species in wildfire smoke (United States)

    Benedict, Katherine B.; Prenni, Anthony J.; Carrico, Christian M.; Sullivan, Amy P.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Collett, Jeffrey L.


    During the summer of 2012 the Hewlett Gulch and High Park wildfires burned an area of 400 km2 northwest of Fort Collins, Colorado. These fires both came within 20 km of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, allowing for extensive measurements of smoke-impacted air masses over the course of several weeks. In total, smoke plumes were observed at the measurement site for approximately 125 h. During this time, measurements were made of multiple reactive nitrogen compounds, including gas phase species NH3, NOx, and HNO3, and particle phase species NO3- and NH4+, plus an additional, unspeciated reactive nitrogen component that is measured by high temperature conversion over a catalyst to NO. Concurrent measurements of CO, levoglucosan and PM2.5 served to confirm the presence of smoke at the monitoring site. Significant enhancements were observed for all of the reactive nitrogen species measured in the plumes, except for NH4+ which did not show enhancements, likely due to the fresh nature of the plume, the presence of sufficient regional ammonia to have already neutralized upwind sulfate, and the warm conditions of the summer measurement period which tend to limit ammonium nitrate formation. Excess mixing ratios for NH3 and NOx relative to excess mixing ratios of CO in the smoke plumes, ΔNH3/ΔCO (ppb/ppb) and ΔNOx/ΔCO (ppb/ppb), were determined to be 0.027 ± 0.002 and 0.0057 ± 0.0007, respectively. These ratios suggest that smoldering combustion was the dominant source of smoke during our plume interceptions. Observations from prior relevant laboratory and field measurements of reactive nitrogen species are also briefly summarized to help create a more comprehensive picture of reactive nitrogen and fire.

  10. Testing hypotheses associated with bird responses to wildfire. (United States)

    Lindenmayer, David B; Wood, Jeff T; Cunningham, Ross B; MacGregor, Christopher; Crane, Mason; Michael, Damian; Montague-Drake, Rebecca; Brown, Darren; Muntz, Rachel; Gill, A Malcolm


    Disturbance is a key ecological process influencing the distribution and abundance of many elements of the earth's biota. Predicting the response of biota to disturbance is therefore important, but it nevertheless remains difficult to make accurate forecasts of response. We tested predictions from disturbance-related theories and concepts in 10 vegetation types at Booderee National Park (southeastern Australia) using a retrospective study of bird responses to fire history (over 35 years) on 110 sites and a prospective study following a single wildfire event in 2003 at 59 of these sites. Our data did not support predictions from the intermediate-disturbance hypothesis; observed bird species richness at a site was significantly (F(1,99) = 6.30, P = 0.014) negatively related to the number of fires since 1972 and was 8.7% lower (95% CI, 1.8-15.1%) for each additional fire. In contrast to fire history effects, we found that after the 2003 fire, the vast majority of individual species and the bird assemblage per se in most vegetation types recovered within two years. Thus, recovery after a single fire did not reflect long-term effects of multiple fires on overall bird species richness at a site. We postulated that the recovery of bird species richness and bird assemblage composition after the 2003 fire would be fastest in structurally simple vegetation types and slowest in structurally complex vegetation, but observed the opposite. Although observed bird species richness in vertically heterogeneous forest and woodland had returned to prefire levels by 2006, bird species richness in structurally simple vegetation types (e.g., sedgeland) had not. Postfire vegetation regeneration, together with a paucity of early-successional specialists, would explain the speed of recovery of the bird assemblage and why it changed relatively little during our investigation.

  11. A characterization methodology for post-wildfire flood hazard assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLin, Stephen G.; Van Eeckhout, M. E. (Mark E.); Springer, E. P.; Lane, Leonard J.


    A combined GIS-HEC modeling application for floodplain analysis of pre- and post-burned watersheds is described. The burned study area is located on Pajarito Plateau near Los Alamos, New Mexico (USA), where the Cerro Grande Wildfire burned 17,353 ha (42,878 ac) in May 2000. This area is dominated by rugged mountains that are dissected by numerous steep canyons having both ephemeral and perennial channel reaches. Vegetation consists of pinon-juniper woodlands located between 1,829-2,134 m (6,000-7,000 ft) above mean sea level (m MSL), and Ponderosa pine stands between 2,134-3,048 m MSL (7,000-10,000 ft). Approximately seventeen percent of the burned area is located within Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the remainder is located in upstream or adjacent watersheds. Pre-burn floodplains were previously mapped in 1991-92 using early HEC models as part of the RCRA/HSWA permitting process. Numerous recording precipitation and stream gages have also been installed. These data provide essential information characterizing rainfall-runoff relationships before and after the fire. They are also being used to monitor spatial and temporal changes as forest recovery progresses. Post-burn changes in HEC-HMS predicted rainfall-runoff patterns are related to changes in watershed vegetation cover and hydrophobic soil conditions. Stream channel cross-sectional geometries were extracted from 0.3 m (1 ft) DEM data using ArcView GIS. Then floodpool topwidths, depths, and flow velocities were remapped using the HEC-RAS model. Finally, numerous surveyed channel sections were selectively made at crucial sites for model verification. Direct comparisons are made between alternative data acquisition and mapping techniques.

  12. Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems



    The Great Basin of western North America is larger than 75% of countries worldwide and is comprised mostly of a “sagebrush sea” threatened by a novel disturbance cycle of wildfire and annual grass invasion. The greater sage-grouse is a sagebrush-obligate species whose populations generally track declines in sagebrush, and is highly influential in shaping state and national land-use policy. Using three decades of sage-grouse population count, wildfire, and climate data within a modeling framew...

  13. What are the socio-economic conditions of local areas affected by wildfires in Portugal? (United States)

    Oliveira, Sandra; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, José Miguel


    The socio-economic context of wildfire distribution is paramount to understand the conditions that influence the vulnerability and resilience levels of different communities exposed to wildfire risk. This research had the main purpose to assess the social and economic dimensions of fire occurrence in Portugal, the country most affected by wildfires in Europe. Differences in fire incidence levels, obtained from number of fire events and burned areas recorded between 2007 and 2014, were examined in relation to socio-economic data from the latest Census at local level, describing conditions regarding exposure levels, sociodemographic patterns, infrastructures, agricultural activities and labour conditions for the civil parishes of mainland Portugal. To identify differences between parishes, two groups were retrieved for fire events and burned areas separately, based on quantiles and keeping only the highest and lowest 20% of wildfire incidence data. The relationships between the wildfire incidence groups and the socio-economic variables were assessed with a stepwise approach based on classification trees. First, irrelevant variables for identifying differences between the groups were removed by an interactive process based on misclassification rates. The second step used random Forest analysis with the selected variables to compute the strength of association and rank variables by importance. The third step applied cluster analysis to determine if the clusters created only with the selected independent variables were equivalent to the initial groups. Results showed that the social and economic conditions of civil parishes vary with wildfire incidence levels. Population density, proportion of foreigners, overcrowded housing conditions, proportion of houses occupied seasonally, and agricultural variables, such as pastures and livestock density, appeared as relevant to distinguish the two fire incidence groups, although with differences in their level of importance and

  14. Creation a Geo Big Data Outreach and Training Collaboratory for Wildfire Community (United States)

    Altintas, I.; Sale, J.; Block, J.; Cowart, C.; Crawl, D.


    A major challenge for the geoscience community is the training and education of current and next generation big data geoscientists. In wildfire research, there are an increasing number of tools, middleware and techniques to use for data science related to wildfires. The necessary computing infrastructures are often within reach and most of the software tools for big data are freely available. But what has been lacking is a transparent platform and training program to produce data science experts who can use these integrated tools effectively. Scientists well versed to take advantage of big data technologies in geoscience applications is of critical importance to the future of research and knowledge advancement. To address this critical need, we are developing learning modules to teach process-based thinking to capture the value of end-to-end systems of reusable blocks of knowledge and integrate the tools and technologies used in big data analysis in an intuitive manner. WIFIRE is an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for dynamic data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior.To this end, we are openly extending an environment we have built for "big data training" ( to similar MOOC-based approaches to the wildfire community. We are building an environment that includes training modules for distributed platforms and systems, Big Data concepts, and scalable workflow tools, along with other basics of data science including data management, reproducibility and sharing of results. We also plan to provide teaching modules with analytical and dynamic data-driven wildfire behavior modeling case studies which address the needs not only of standards-based K-12 science education but also the needs of a well-educated and informed citizenry.Another part our outreach mission is to educate our community on all aspects of wildfire research. One of the most successful ways of accomplishing this is through high school and undergraduate

  15. Can post-wildfire Burned Area Emergency Response treatments mitigate watershed degradation? (United States)

    Neary, D.; Ffolliott, P.; Bautista, S.; Wittenberg, L.


    Wildfire is a natural phenomenon that began with the development of terrestrial vegetation in a lightning-filled atmosphere 350 million years ago. As human populations developed in the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs, mankind transformed fire into one of its oldest tools. A negative impact of prime concern in the 21st Century is desertification. This term refers to land degradation, not the immediate creation of classical deserts. It is about the loss of the land's proper hydrologic function and biological productivity as a result of human activities and climate change. It affects 33% of the earth's surface and over a billion people. Fire-related desertification has a number of environmental, social, and economic consequences. The two key environmental consequences are soil erosion and exotic plant invasions. Wildfires typically have exotic plant species abundances ten times that of undisturbed forests (Neary et al. 2003). Seeding has been used for many years in the USA as a prime Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) treatment. Until recently, this seeding contributed to exotic plant invasions since fast-growing, but non native plants seeds were used. The use of native plant seeds and sterile hybrids has reduced this problem somewhat. Erosion after wildfires documented in the USA can be in the range of productivity. An environmental consequence of wildfire related to soil disturbance, is the loss of hydrologic function. Again, the level of hydrologic function loss is related to fire severity. Although this ecosystem function tends to recover within 5 - 10 years after wildfire as vegetation cover returns, the immediate impacts can be considerable. The removal of the protective layer of the forest floor by combustion, and the development of water repellent layers in the soil combine to aggrevate flood potentials. Flood peak flows after wildfires with high percentages of high severity wildfire (>30%) commonly have increases of 10-fold. Higher increases (20 to 2

  16. Empirical Evidence for Self-Organized Patterns in California Wildfire Sizes: Implications for Landscape Resilience (United States)

    Povak, N. A.; Hessburg, P. F.


    Wildfires are an important disturbance in many western US ecosystems and are integral in shaping spatial and temporal vegetation patterns. Ecological resilience has been described as the amount of disturbance that an ecosystem could withstand without changing self-organized processes and structures. Inherent in resilient systems are observable self-organized patterns in vegetation and processes on the landscape. It is theorized that self-organized systems are capable of withstanding a large range of disturbance sizes and intensities without significantly changing the resultant distribution of vegetation patch sizes over time. Past research has used power-law statistics to describe self-organization in wildfire behavior, and we extend this research using several different methods to identify evidence for landscape resilience over a large geographic area. We used a catalogue of California wildfires (>1ha; 1950-2007) grouped at multiple levels within Bailey's hierarchy of ecoregions to (1) identify self-organized patterns in wildfire size distributions across the state, (2) identify lower and upper limits on self-organized behavior, and (3) find links between these patterns and top-down and bottom-up processes. Within most ecoregions we found reliable evidence for self-organized behavior in wildfire size distributions. Evidence included good fits of: (1) 2-3 parameter statistical distributions within the Pareto and Generalized Beta II (P/GB2) family of distributions over the entire range of fire event sizes; these distributions all have in common a power-law tail, (2) the Pareto I (power-law) distribution to the right-tail of the fire-size distributions, and (3) broken-stick regression models to the inverse cumulative distribution functions for fire sizes. For most ecoregions, self-organized properties were generally limited to fires within 100 to 10000 ha, indicating that meso-scale processes controlling fire sizes likely are acting at this scale. Scaling parameters

  17. NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System (United States)

    Schnase, John; Carroll, Mark; Gill, Roger; Wooten, Margaret; Weber, Keith; Blair, Kindra; May, Jeffrey; Toombs, William


    NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

  18. Microtremor study of Gunung Anyar mud volcano, Surabaya, East Java (United States)

    Syaifuddin, Firman; Bahri, Ayi Syaeful; Lestari, Wien; Pandu, Juan


    The existence of mud volcano system in East Java is known from the ancient period, especially in Surabaya. Gunung Anyar mud volcano is one of the mud volcano system manifestation was appeared close to the residence. Because of this phenomenon we have to learn about the impact of this mud volcano manifestation to the neighbourhood. The microtremor study was conducted to evaluate the possible influence effect of the mud volcano to the environment and get more information about the subsurface condition in this area. Microtremor is one of the geophysical methods which measure the natural tremor or vibration of the earth, the dominant frequency of the tremor represent thickness of the soft sediment layer overlay above the bed rock or harder rock layer beneath our feet. In this study 90 stations was measured to record the natural tremor. The result from this study shows the direct influenced area of this small mud volcano system is close to 50m from the centre of the mud volcano and bed rock of this area is range between 66 to 140 meter.

  19. Acoustic scattering from mud volcanoes and carbonate mounds. (United States)

    Holland, Charles W; Weber, Thomas C; Etiope, Giuseppe


    Submarine mud volcanoes occur in many parts of the world's oceans and form an aperture for gas and fluidized mud emission from within the earth's crust. Their characteristics are of considerable interest to the geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and underwater acoustics communities. For the latter, mud volcanoes are of interest in part because they pose a potential source of clutter for active sonar. Close-range (single-interaction) scattering measurements from a mud volcano in the Straits of Sicily show scattering 10-15 dB above the background. Three hypotheses were examined concerning the scattering mechanism: (1) gas entrained in sediment at/near mud volcano, (2) gas bubbles and/or particulates (emitted) in the water column, (3) the carbonate bio-construction covering the mud volcano edifice. The experimental evidence, including visual, acoustic, and nonacoustic sensors, rules out the second hypothesis (at least during the observation time) and suggests that, for this particular mud volcano the dominant mechanism is associated with carbonate chimneys on the mud volcano. In terms of scattering levels, target strengths of 4-14 dB were observed from 800 to 3600 Hz for a monostatic geometry with grazing angles of 3-5 degrees. Similar target strengths were measured for vertically bistatic paths with incident and scattered grazing angles of 3-5 degrees and 33-50 degrees, respectively.

  20. Nuclear winter or nuclear fall? (United States)

    Berger, André

    Climate is universal. If a major modern nuclear war (i.e., with a large number of small-yield weapons) were to happen, it is not even necessary to have a specific part of the world directly involved for there to be cause to worry about the consequences for its inhabitants and their future. Indeed, smoke from fires ignited by the nuclear explosions would be transported by winds all over the world, causing dark and cold. According to the first study, by Turco et al. [1983], air surface temperature over continental areas of the northern mid-latitudes (assumed to be the nuclear war theatre) would fall to winter levels even in summer (hence the term “nuclear winter”) and induce drastic climatic conditions for several months at least. The devastating effects of a nuclear war would thus last much longer than was assumed initially. Discussing to what extent these estimations of long-term impacts on climate are reliable is the purpose of this article.