WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcanoes wildfires winter

  1. The ability of winter grazing to reduce wildfire size, intensity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A recent study by Davies et al. sought to test whether winter grazing could reduce wildfire size, fire behavior metrics, and fire-induced plant mortality in shrub-grasslands. The authors concluded that ungrazed rangelands may experience more fire-induced mortality of native perennial bunchgrasses. The authors also presented several statements regarding the benefits of winter grazing on post-fire plant community responses. However, this commentary will show that the study by Davies et al. has underlying methodological flaws, lacks data necessary to support their conclusions, and does not provide an accurate discussion on the effect of grazing on rangeland ecosystems. Importantly, Davies et al. presented no data on the post-fire mortality of the perennial bunchgrasses or on the changes in plant community composition following their experimental fires. Rather, Davies et al. inferred these conclusions based off their observed fire behavior metrics of maximum temperature and a term described as the “heat load”. However, neither metric is appropriate for elucidating the heat flux impacts on plants. This lack of post-fire data, several methodological flaws, and the use of inadequate metrics describing heat cast doubts on the authors’ ability to support their stated conclusions. This article is a commentary highlights the scientific shortcomings in a forthcoming paper by Davies et al. in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. The study has methodological flaw

  2. Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

  3. Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

    1993-12-01

    The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

  4. The ability of winter grazing to reduce wildfire size, intensity, and fire-induced plant mortality was not demonstrated: A comment on Davies et al. (2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A recent study by Davies et al. sought to test whether winter grazing could reduce wildfire size, fire behavior metrics, and fire-induced plant mortality in shrub-grasslands. The authors concluded that ungrazed rangelands may experience more fire-induced mortality of native peren...

  5. Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... rock, steam, poisonous gases, and ash reach the Earth's surface when a volcano erupts. An eruption can also cause earthquakes, mudflows and flash floods, rock falls and landslides, acid rain, fires, and even tsunamis. Volcanic gas ...

  6. Winter habitat selection by caribou in relation to lichen abundance, wildfires, grazing, and landscape characteristics in northwest Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle Joly; F. Stuart III Chapin; David R. Klein

    2010-01-01

    Lichens are an important winter forage for large, migratory herds of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) that can influence population dynamics through effects on body condition and in turn calf recruitment and survival. We investigated the vegetative and physiographic characteristics of winter range of the Western Arctic Herd in northwest Alaska, one...

  7. Winter grazing decreases the probability of fire-induced mortality of bunchgrasses and may reduce wildfire size: a response to Smith et al (this issue)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A recent commentary by Smith et al. (this issue) attempted to discount the findings of our study (Davies et al. this issue) by claiming that our study contained methodological errors and lacked the data necessary to support our conclusions, in particular that winter grazing may reduce the probabilit...

  8. Predicting wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia Andrews; Mark Finney; Mark Fischetti

    2007-01-01

    The number of catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. has been steadily rising. The nation has spent more than $1 billion annually to suppress such fires in eight of the past 10 years. In 2005 a record 8.7 million acres burned, only to be succeeded by 9.9 million acres in 2006. And this year is off to a furious start. To a great extent, the increase in fires stems from a...

  9. What Are Volcano Hazards?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Sheet 002-97 Revised March 2008 What Are Volcano Hazards? Volcanoes give rise to numerous geologic and ... as far as 15 miles from the volcano. Volcano Landslides A landslide or debris avalanche is a ...

  10. Wildfire Smoke Health Watch

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-07-23

    Smoke from wildfires can be dangerous to your health. In this podcast, you will learn the health threats of wildfire smoke and steps you can take to minimize these effects.  Created: 7/23/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (PHPR).   Date Released: 7/23/2012.

  11. Is Managed Wildfire Protecting Yosemite National Park from Drought?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Kelly, M.; Tague, N.

    2016-12-01

    Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the Western US. This project explores the potential of managed wildfire - a forest management strategy in which fires caused by lightning are allowed to burn naturally as long as certain safety parameters are met - to reverse the effects of fire suppression. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover and increasing meadow and shrubland areas. We have collected evidence from field measurements and remote sensing which suggest that managed wildfire increases landscape and hydrologic heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances such as fire and drought. Vegetation maps created from aerial photos show an increase in landscape heterogeneity following the introduction of managed wildfire. Soil moisture observations during the drought years of 2013-2016 suggest that transitions from dense forest to shrublands or meadows can increase summer soil moisture. In the winter of 2015-2016, snow depth measurements showed deeper spring snowpacks in burned areas compared to dense forests. Our study provides a unique view of relatively long-term effects of managed wildfire on vegetation change, ecohydrology, and drought resistance. Understanding these effects is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted, and as the likelihood of both drought and wildfire increases.

  12. Living with wildfire in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2010-01-01

    In this presentation, we describe results of a survey to homeowners living in wildfire-prone areas of two counties along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The survey was designed to elicit information on homeowners' experience with wildfire, perceptions of wildfire risk on their property and neighboring properties, mitigation efforts undertaken...

  13. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

    1992-01-01

    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  14. Atmospheric Infrasound during a Large Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vance, Alexis; Elbing, Brian

    2017-11-01

    Numerous natural and manmade sources generate infrasound, including tornado producing storms, human heart, hurricanes, and volcanoes. Infrasound is currently being studied as part of Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (CLOUD MAP), which is a multi-university collaboration focused on development and implementation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and integration with sensors for atmospheric measurements. To support this effort a fixed infrasonic microphone located in Stillwater, Oklahoma has been monitoring atmospheric emissions since September of 2016. While severe storm systems is the primary focus of this work, the system also captures a wide range of infrasonic sources from distances in excess of 300 miles due to an acoustic ceiling and weak atmospheric absorption. The current presentation will focus on atmospheric infrasound observations during a large wildfire on the Kansas-Oklahoma border that occurred between March 6-22, 2017. This work was supported by NSF Grant 1539070.

  15. Spreading like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come?

  16. Global Volcano Locations Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC maintains a database of over 1,500 volcano locations obtained from the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, Volcanoes of the World publication. The...

  17. A Scientific Excursion: Volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, Henry, Jr.

    1983-01-01

    Reviews an educationally valuable and reasonably well-designed simulation of volcanic activity in an imaginary land. VOLCANOES creates an excellent context for learning information about volcanoes and for developing skills and practicing methods needed to study behavior of volcanoes. (Author/JN)

  18. Volcano seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouet, B.

    2003-01-01

    A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic

  19. Rebuilding and new housing development after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Alexandre; Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Roger B. Hammer; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    The number of wildland-urban interface communities affected by wildfire is increasing, and both wildfire suppression and losses are costly. However, little is known about post-wildfire response by homeowners and communities after buildings are lost. Our goal was to characterise rebuilding and new development after wildfires across the conterminous United States. We...

  20. Volcanoes: Nature's Caldrons Challenge Geochemists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurer, Pamela S.

    1984-01-01

    Reviews various topics and research studies on the geology of volcanoes. Areas examined include volcanoes and weather, plate margins, origins of magma, magma evolution, United States Geological Survey (USGS) volcano hazards program, USGS volcano observatories, volcanic gases, potassium-argon dating activities, and volcano monitoring strategies.…

  1. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  2. Volcanoes: observations and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, Clifford; Prejean, Stephanie G.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanoes are critical geologic hazards that challenge our ability to make long-term forecasts of their eruptive behaviors. They also have direct and indirect impacts on human lives and society. As is the case with many geologic phenomena, the time scales over which volcanoes evolve greatly exceed that of a human lifetime. On the other hand, the time scale over which a volcano can move from inactivity to eruption can be rather short: months, weeks, days, and even hours. Thus, scientific study and monitoring of volcanoes is essential to mitigate risk. There are thousands of volcanoes on Earth, and it is impractical to study and implement ground-based monitoring at them all. Fortunately, there are other effective means for volcano monitoring, including increasing capabilities for satellite-based technologies.

  3. Smoke Ready Toolbox for Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    This site provides an online Smoke Ready Toolbox for Wildfires, which lists resources and tools that provide information on health impacts from smoke exposure, current fire conditions and forecasts and strategies to reduce exposure to smoke.

  4. Wildfires Tracked by Minnesota DNR

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This theme shows the locations of wildfires for which the DNR was the primary responding agency. These include fires not only on state lands, but also rural private...

  5. UAS Developments Supporting Wildfire Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambrosia, V. G.; Dahlgren, R. P.; Watts, A.; Reynolds, K. W.; Ball, T.

    2014-12-01

    Wildfires are regularly occurring emergency events that threaten life, property, and natural resources in every U.S. State and many countries around the world. Despite projections that $1.8 billion will be spent by U.S. Federal agencies alone on wildfires in 2014, the decades-long trend of increasing fire size, severity, and cost is expected to continue. Furthermore, the enormous potential for UAS (and concomitant sensor systems) to serve as geospatial intelligence tools to improve the safety and effectiveness of fire management, and our ability to forecast fire and smoke movements, remains barely tapped. Although orbital sensor assets are can provide the geospatial extent of wildfires, generally those resources are limited in use due to their spatial and temporal resolution limitations. These two critical elements make orbital assets of limited utility for tactical, real-time wildfire management, or for continuous scientific analysis of the temporal dynamics related to fire energy release rates and plume concentrations that vary significantly thru a fire's progression. Large UAS platforms and sensors can and have been used to monitor wildfire events at improved temporal, spatial and radiometric scales, but more focus is being placed on the use of small UAS (sUAS) and sensors to support wildfire observation strategies. The use of sUAS is therefore more critical for TACTICAL management purposes, rather than strategic observations, where small-scale fire developments are critical to understand. This paper will highlight the historical development and use of UAS for fire observations, as well as the current shift in focus to smaller, more affordable UAS for more rapid integration into operational use on wildfire events to support tactical observation strategies, and support wildfire science measurement inprovements.

  6. Visions of Volcanoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Pyle

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The long nineteenth century marked an important transition in the understanding of the nature of combustion and fire, and of volcanoes and the interior of the earth. It was also a period when dramatic eruptions of Vesuvius lit up the night skies of Naples, providing ample opportunities for travellers, natural philosophers, and early geologists to get up close to the glowing lavas of an active volcano. This article explores written and visual representations of volcanoes and volcanic activity during the period, with the particular perspective of writers from the non-volcanic regions of northern Europe. I explore how the language of ‘fire’ was used in both first-hand and fictionalized accounts of peoples’ interactions with volcanoes and experiences of volcanic phenomena, and see how the routine or implicit linkage of ‘fire’ with ‘combustion’ as an explanation for the deep forces at play within and beneath volcanoes slowly changed as the formal scientific study of volcanoes developed. I show how Vesuvius was used as a ‘model’ volcano in science and literature and how, later, following devastating eruptions in Indonesia and the Caribbean, volcanoes took on a new dimension as contemporary agents of death and destruction.

  7. Lichens, wildfire, and caribou on the taiga ecosystem of northcentral Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Miller

    2000-04-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial lichens are unique organisms that are pioneers on bare sand and rock, survive desiccation and reproduce both sexually and asexually. They compete poorly with dense, aggressive vascular flora. Wildfires require organic matter as fuels, are the driving force in perpetuation of the Taiga Ecosystem in a heterogeneous environment and, if left alone, are self controlling. Caribou wintering on the Taiga are dependent on: (1 a terricolous lichen forage supply for most of the winter, (2 a heterogeneous environment to cope with predators and the changing nival environment, and (3 natural wildfires to supply these needs. Wildlife control on the Taiga winter range is not recommended as a management tool for barren-ground caribou.

  8. Relative abundance of small mammals in nest core areas and burned wintering areas of Mexican spotted owls in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph L. Ganey; Sean C. Kyle; Todd A. Rawlinson; Darrell L. Apprill; James P Ward

    2014-01-01

    Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) are common in older forests within their range but also persist in many areas burned by wildfire and may selectively forage in these areas. One hypothesis explaining this pattern postulates that prey abundance increases in burned areas following wildfire. We observed movement to wintering areas within areas burned by...

  9. Wildfires in Siberian Mountain Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Ponomarev, E. I.; Antamoshkina, O.

    2017-12-01

    The annual burned area in Russia was estimated as 0.55 to 20 Mha with >70% occurred in Siberia. We analyzed Siberian wildfires distribution with respect to elevation, slope steepness and exposure. In addition, wildfires temporal dynamic and latitudinal range were analyzed. We used daily thermal anomalies derived from NOAA/AVHRR and Terra/MODIS satellites (1990-2016). Fire return intervals were (FRI) calculated based on the dendrochronology analysis of samples taken from trees with burn marks. Spatial distribution of wildfires dependent on topo features: relative burned area increase with elevation increase (ca. 1100 m), switching to following decrease. The wildfires frequency exponentially decreased within lowlands - highlands transition. Burned area is increasing with slope steepness increase (up to 5-10°). Fire return intervals (FRI) on the southfacing slopes are about 30% longer than on the north facing. Wildfire re-occurrence is decreasing exponentially: 90% of burns were caused by single fires, 8.5% by double fires, 1% burned three times, and on about 0.05% territory wildfires occurred four times (observed period: 75 yr.). Wildfires area and number, as well as FRI, also dependent on latitude: relative burned area increasing exponentially in norward direction, whereas relative fire number is exponentially decreasing. FRI increases in the northward direction: from 80 years at 62°N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle, and to 300 years at the northern limit of closed forests ( 71+°N). Fire frequency, fire danger period and FRI are strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.81 - 0.95). In 21-s century, a positive trend of wildfires number and area observed in mountain areas in all Siberia. Thus, burned area and number of fires in Siberia are significantly increased since 1990th (R2 =0.47, R2 =0.69, respectively), and that increase correlated with air temperatures and climate aridity increases. However, wildfires are essential for supporting fire

  10. The economic benefits of wildfire prevention education

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.A. Hermansen-Baez; J.P. Prestemon; D.T. Butry; K.L. Abt; R. Sutphen

    2011-01-01

    While there are many activities that can limit damages from wildfires, such as firefighting efforts and prescribed burning, wildfire prevention education programs can be particularly beneficial. This was confirmed through a study conducted by the Southern Research Station and the National Institute of Standards and Technology that demonstrated that wildfire prevention...

  11. Net benefits of wildfire prevention education efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen

    2010-01-01

    Wildfire prevention education efforts involve a variety of methods, including airing public service announcements, distributing brochures, and making presentations, which are intended to reduce the occurrence of certain kinds of wildfires. A Poisson model of preventable Florida wildfires from 2002 to 2007 by fire management region was developed. Controlling for...

  12. Economic optimisation of wildfire intervention activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen

    2010-01-01

    We describe how two important tools of wildfire management, wildfire prevention education and prescribed fire for fuels management, can be coordinated to minimise the combination of management costs and expected societal losses resulting from wildland fire. We present a long-run model that accounts for the dynamics of wildfire, the effects of fuels management on...

  13. Understanding change: Wildfire in Larimer County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire activity continues to plague communities in the American West. Three causes are often identified as key contributors to the wildfire problem: accumulated fuels on public lands due to a history of suppressing wildfires; climate change; and an influx of residents into fire prone areas referred to as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The latter of these...

  14. Understanding change: Wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ; Amy L. Telligman

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire activity continues to plague communities in the American West. Three causes are often identified as key contributors to the wildfire problem: accumulated fuels on public lands due to a history of suppressing wildfires; climate change; and an influx of residents into fire prone areas referred to as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The latter of these...

  15. Wildfire risk and home purchase decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia Champ; Geoffrey Donovan; Christopher Barth

    2008-01-01

    In the last 20 years, wildfire damages and the costs of wildfire suppression have risen dramatically. This trend has been attributed to three main factors: climate change, increased fuel loads from a century of wildfire suppression, and increased housing development in fire-prone areas., There is little that fire managers can do about climate change, and current fuel...

  16. Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2005-01-01

    In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

  17. The worldwide "wildfire" problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, A Malcolm; Stephens, Scott L; Cary, Geoffrey J

    2013-03-01

    The worldwide "wildfire" problem is headlined by the loss of human lives and homes, but it applies generally to any adverse effects of unplanned fires, as events or regimes, on a wide range of environmental, social, and economic assets. The problem is complex and contingent, requiring continual attention to the changing circumstances of stakeholders, landscapes, and ecosystems; it occurs at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Minimizing adverse outcomes involves controlling fires and fire regimes, increasing the resistance of assets to fires, locating or relocating assets away from the path of fires, and, as a probability of adverse impacts often remains, assisting recovery in the short-term while promoting the adaptation of societies in the long-term. There are short- and long-term aspects to each aspect of minimization. Controlling fires and fire regimes may involve fire suppression and fuel treatments such as prescribed burning or non-fire treatments but also addresses issues associated with unwanted fire starts like arson. Increasing the resistance of assets can mean addressing the design and construction materials of a house or the use of personal protective equipment. Locating or relocating assets can mean leaving an area about to be impacted by fire or choosing a suitable place to live; it can also mean the planning of land use. Assisting recovery and promoting adaptation can involve insuring assets and sharing responsibility for preparedness for an event. There is no single, simple, solution. Perverse outcomes can occur. The number of minimizing techniques used, and the breadth and depth of their application, depends on the geographic mix of asset types. Premises for policy consideration are presented.

  18. Smoke exposure at western wildfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy E. Reinhardt; Roger D. Ottmar

    2000-01-01

    Smoke exposure measurements among firefighters at wildfires in the Western United States between 1992 and 1995 showed that altogether most exposures were not significant, between 3 and 5 percent of the shift-average exposures exceeded occupational exposure limits for carbon monoxide and respiratory irritants. Exposure to benzene and total suspended particulate was not...

  19. Protection from erosion following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

    2006-01-01

    Erosion in the first year after a wildfire can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than the erosion from undisturbed forests. To mitigate potential postfire erosion, various erosion control treatments are applied on highly erodible areas with downstream resources in need of protection. Because postfire erosion rates generally decline by an order of magnitude for...

  20. Effects of Wildfire on Fluvial Sediment Regime through Perturbations in Dry-Ravel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.; Storesund, R.; Keller, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    In steep chaparral ecosystems with Mediterranean climate, dry ravel is a natural process resulting from wildfire disturbance that supplies sediment to fluvial systems. When dense chaparral vegetation burns, sediment accumulated on steep hillslopes is released for dry-season transport (dry ravel) down steep hillslopes during or soon after the wildfire. Results of a field study in southern California's Transverse Ranges illustrate the effect of wildfire on fluvial sediment regime in an unregulated chaparral system. Big Sycamore Canyon in the steep Santa Monica Mountains burned during the May 2013 Springs Fire and experienced one small sediment-transporting stormflow during the following winter. We conducted pre- and post-storm field campaigns during the fall and winter following the fire to quantify the effect of wildfire on the fluvial sediment regime. We utilized a sediment mass balance approach in which: 1) sediment supply, consisting primarily of dry ravel-derived deposits composed of relatively fine grained-sediment, was measured in the upstream basin and in the hillslope-channel margin adjacent to the study reach; 2) changes in storage in the study reach were quantified by analyzing the difference between pre- and post-storm channel topography derived from Terrestrial LiDAR Scanning (TLS) and field surveys; and 3) transport from the study reach was estimated as the difference between supply and change in storage where uncertainty is estimated using calculated sediment transport as a comparison. Results demonstrate channel deposition caused by changes in the short-term post-wildfire sediment regime. The increased sediment supply and storage are associated with significant changes in morphology, channel bed-material characteristics, and ecology. These results suggest that dry-ravel processes are an important factor to consider in post-wildfire sediment management.

  1. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  2. Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska ESI: VOLCANOS (Volcano Points)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains the locations of volcanos in Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Vector points in the data set represent the location of the volcanos....

  3. Multiple UAV Cooperation for Wildfire Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhongjie

    Wildfires have been a major factor in the development and management of the world's forest. An accurate assessment of wildfire status is imperative for fire management. This thesis is dedicated to the topic of utilizing multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to cooperatively monitor a large-scale wildfire. This is achieved through wildfire spreading situation estimation based on on-line measurements and wise cooperation strategy to ensure efficiency. First, based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of the wildfire propagation behavior, a wildfire model and a Kalman filter-based method are proposed to estimate the wildfire rate of spread and the fire front contour profile. With the enormous on-line measurements from on-board sensors of UAVs, the proposed method allows a wildfire monitoring mission to benefit from on-line information updating, increased flexibility, and accurate estimation. An independent wildfire simulator is utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Second, based on the filter analysis, wildfire spreading situation and vehicle dynamics, the influence of different cooperation strategies of UAVs to the overall mission performance is studied. The multi-UAV cooperation problem is formulated in a distributed network. A consensus-based method is proposed to help address the problem. The optimal cooperation strategy of UAVs is obtained through mathematical analysis. The derived optimal cooperation strategy is then verified in an independent fire simulation environment to verify its effectiveness.

  4. Volcanoes: Coming Up from Under.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science and Children, 1980

    1980-01-01

    Provides specific information about the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in March 1980. Also discusses how volcanoes are formed and how they are monitored. Words associated with volcanoes are listed and defined. (CS)

  5. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, David W.

    1992-01-01

    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  6. Before, During, and After a Wildfire

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    More and more people are making their homes in woodland settings – in or near forests, rural areas, or remote mountain sites - areas in which wildfires are more likely to occur. Wildfires often begin unnoticed. They spread quickly, igniting brush, trees, and homes. CDC recommends taking steps before, during, and after local wildfires to reduce the effect they have on your life.

  7. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  8. Hawaii's volcanoes revealed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eakins, Barry W.; Robinson, Joel E.; Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Naka, Jiro; Smith, John R.; Takahashi, Eiichi; Clague, David A.

    2003-01-01

    Hawaiian volcanoes typically evolve in four stages as volcanism waxes and wanes: (1) early alkalic, when volcanism originates on the deep sea floor; (2) shield, when roughly 95 percent of a volcano's volume is emplaced; (3) post-shield alkalic, when small-volume eruptions build scattered cones that thinly cap the shield-stage lavas; and (4) rejuvenated, when lavas of distinct chemistry erupt following a lengthy period of erosion and volcanic quiescence. During the early alkalic and shield stages, two or more elongate rift zones may develop as flanks of the volcano separate. Mantle-derived magma rises through a vertical conduit and is temporarily stored in a shallow summit reservoir from which magma may erupt within the summit region or be injected laterally into the rift zones. The ongoing activity at Kilauea's Pu?u ?O?o cone that began in January 1983 is one such rift-zone eruption. The rift zones commonly extend deep underwater, producing submarine eruptions of bulbous pillow lava. Once a volcano has grown above sea level, subaerial eruptions produce lava flows of jagged, clinkery ?a?a or smooth, ropy pahoehoe. If the flows reach the ocean they are rapidly quenched by seawater and shatter, producing a steep blanket of unstable volcanic sediment that mantles the upper submarine slopes. Above sea level then, the volcanoes develop the classic shield profile of gentle lava-flow slopes, whereas below sea level slopes are substantially steeper. While the volcanoes grow rapidly during the shield stage, they may also collapse catastrophically, generating giant landslides and tsunami, or fail more gradually, forming slumps. Deformation and seismicity along Kilauea's south flank indicate that slumping is occurring there today. Loading of the underlying Pacific Plate by the growing volcanic edifices causes subsidence, forming deep basins at the base of the volcanoes. Once volcanism wanes and lava flows no longer reach the ocean, the volcano continues to submerge, while

  9. Effects of using winter grazing as a fuel treatment on Wyoming big sagebrush plant communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    More frequent wildfires and incidences of mega-fires have increased the pressure for fuel treatments in sagebrush (Artemisia) communities. Winter grazing has been one of many fuel treatments proposed for Wyoming big sagebrush (A. tridentata Nutt. subsp. wyomingensis Beetle and A. Young) communitie...

  10. Anatomy of a volcano

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooper, A.; Wassink, J.

    2011-01-01

    The Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused major disruption in European airspace last year. According to his co-author, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, the reconstruction published in Nature six months later by aerospace engineering researcher, Dr Andy Hooper, opens up a new direction in volcanology. “We

  11. Spying on volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Matthew

    2017-07-01

    Active volcanoes can be incredibly dangerous, especially to those who live nearby, but how do you get close enough to observe one in action? Matthew Watson explains how artificial drones are providing volcanologists with insights that could one day save human lives

  12. Geology of kilauea volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R.B.; Trusdell, F.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper summarizes studies of the structure, stratigraphy, petrology, drill holes, eruption frequency, and volcanic and seismic hazards of Kilauea volcano. All the volcano is discussed, but the focus is on its lower cast rift zone (LERZ) because active exploration for geothermal energy is concentrated in that area. Kilauea probably has several separate hydrothermal-convection systems that develop in response to the dynamic behavior of the volcano and the influx of abundant meteoric water. Important features of some of these hydrothermal-convection systems are known through studies of surface geology and drill holes. Observations of eruptions during the past two centuries, detailed geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating, and paleomagnetic secular-variation studies indicate that Kilauea has erupted frequently from its summit and two radial rift zones during Quaternary time. Petrologic studies have established that Kilauea erupts only tholeiitic basalt. Extensive ash deposits at Kilauea's summit and on its LERZ record locally violent, but temporary, disruptions of local hydrothermal-convection systems during the interaction of water or steam with magma. Recent drill holes on the LERZ provide data on the temperatures of the hydrothermal-convection systems, intensity of dike intrusion, porosity and permeability, and an increasing amount of hydrothermal alteration with depth. The prehistoric and historic record of volcanic and seismic activity indicates that magma will continue to be supplied to deep and shallow reservoirs beneath Kilauea's summit and rift zones and that the volcano will be affected by eruptions and earthquakes for many thousands of years. ?? 1993.

  13. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

    2018-05-01

    A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated

  14. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  15. Mapping the Relationship Between Wildfire and Poverty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathy Lynn; Wendy Gerlitz

    2006-01-01

    Wildfires and related government roles and responsibilities for federal wildland management are prominent in our national consciousness because of the increased severity in the last decade of fires on and around public lands. In recent years, laws, strategies, and implementation documents have been issued to direct federal efforts for wildfire prevention, firefighting...

  16. Wildfires and tourist behaviors in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brijesh Thapa; Ignatius Cahyanto; Stephen M. Holland; James D. Absher

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of wildfires on tourism have largely been examined with emphasis on economic losses and recovery strategies. Given the limited research from a demand perspective, this study examined tourist risk perceptions and reactionary behaviors toward wildfires in Florida. Data (N ¼ 771) was collected among a U.S. sample of non-resident overnight leisure travelers...

  17. Optimal timing of wildfire prevention education

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. T. Butry; J. P. Prestemon; K. L. Abt

    2010-01-01

    Public outreach and wildfire education activities have been shown to limit the number of unintentional human-caused ignitions (i.e., 'accidental' wildfires). Such activities include the airing of public service announcements, visiting with homeowners in at-risk areas, distributing informative brochures and flyers, hosting of public forums (with presentations...

  18. Wind erosion of soils burned by wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    N. S. Wagenbrenner; M. J. Germino; B. K. Lamb; R. B. Foltz; P. R. Robichaud

    2011-01-01

    Wind erosion and aeolian transport processes are largely unstudied in the post-wildfire environment, but recent studies have shown that wind erosion can play a major role in burned landscapes. A wind erosion monitoring system was installed immediately following a wildfire in southeastern Idaho, USA to measure wind erosion from the burned area (Figure 1). This paper...

  19. Harvesting morels after wildfire in Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tricia L. Wurtz; Amy L. Wiita; Nancy S. Weber; David Pilz

    2005-01-01

    Morels are edible, choice wild mushrooms that sometimes fruit prolifically in the years immediately after an area has been burned by wildfire. Wildfires are common in interior Alaska; an average of 708,700 acres burned each year in interior Alaska between 1961 and 2000, and in major fire years, over 2 million acres burned. We discuss Alaska's boreal forest...

  20. Hydrologic effects of large southwestern USA wildfires significantly increase regional water supply: fact or fiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, M. L.; Cadol, D.

    2016-08-01

    In recent years climate change and historic fire suppression have increased the frequency of large wildfires in the southwestern USA, motivating study of the hydrological consequences of these wildfires at point and watershed scales, typically over short periods of time. These studies have revealed that reduced soil infiltration capacity and reduced transpiration due to tree canopy combustion increase streamflow at the watershed scale. However, the degree to which these local increases in runoff propagate to larger scales—relevant to urban and agricultural water supply—remains largely unknown, particularly in semi-arid mountainous watersheds co-dominated by winter snowmelt and the North American monsoon. To address this question, we selected three New Mexico watersheds—the Jemez (1223 km2), Mogollon (191 km2), and Gila (4807 km2)—that together have been affected by over 100 wildfires since 1982. We then applied climate-driven linear models to test for effects of fire on streamflow metrics after controlling for climatic variability. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and snowpack variability, significantly more streamflow discharged from the Gila watershed for three to five years following wildfires, consistent with increased regional water yield due to enhanced infiltration-excess overland flow and groundwater recharge at the large watershed scale. In contrast, we observed no such increase in discharge from the Jemez watershed following wildfires. Fire regimes represent a key difference between the contrasting responses of the Jemez and Gila watersheds with the latter experiencing more frequent wildfires, many caused by lightning strikes. While hydrologic dynamics at the scale of large watersheds were previously thought to be climatically dominated, these results suggest that if one fifth or more of a large watershed has been burned in the previous three to five years, significant increases in water yield can be expected.

  1. Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Lea

    2017-04-01

    potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

  2. Cretaceous extinctions - Evidence for wildfires and search for meteoritic material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolbach, W. S.; Lewis, R. S.; Anders, E.

    1985-01-01

    The results of analyses of the contents of deposits in the Cretaceous-Ternary (K-T) transition at three sites worldwide are discussed. The study was undertaken to examine the composition of the object which may have struck the earth, causing widespread biotic extinction. The data indicate that most of the parent body was destroyed on impact, a condition which would also hold true for comets, suggesting that comets were not a source of prebiotic life. A four-orders-of-magnitude excess of carbon in the K-T layer is considered in terms of its source, which is suspected to be deposits from wildfires. The consequent extinctions of species are regarded as possibly making the current nuclear winter scenarios too optimistic.

  3. Geology of Kilauea volcano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, R.B. (Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States). Federal Center); Trusdell, F.A. (Geological Survey, Hawaii National Park, HI (United States). Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

    1993-08-01

    This paper summarizes studies of the structure, stratigraphy, petrology, drill holes, eruption frequency, and volcanic and seismic hazards of Kilauea volcano. All the volcano is discussed, but the focus is on its lower east rift zone (LERZ) because active exploration for geothermal energy is concentrated in that area. Kilauea probably has several separate hydrothermal-convection systems that develop in response to the dynamic behavior of the volcano and the influx of abundant meteoric water. Important features of some of these hydrothermal-convection systems are known through studies of surface geology and drill holes. Observations of eruptions during the past two centuries, detailed geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating, and paleomagnetic secular-variation studies indicate that Kilauea has erupted frequently from its summit and two radial rift zones during Quaternary time. Petrologic studies have established that Kilauea erupts only tholeiitic basalt. Extensive ash deposits at Kilauea's summit and on its LERZ record locally violent, but temporary, disruptions of local hydrothermal-convection systems during the interaction of water or steam with magma. Recent drill holes on the LERZ provide data on the temperatures of the hydrothermal-convection systems, intensity of dike intrusion, porosity and permeability, and an increasing amount of hydrothermal alteration with depth. The prehistoric and historic record of volcanic and seismic activity indicates that magma will continue to be supplied to deep and shallow reservoirs beneath Kilauea's summit and rift zones and that the volcano will be affected by eruptions and earthquakes for many thousands of years. 71 refs., 2 figs.

  4. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  5. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  6. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  7. Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyinskaya, Evgenia; Larsen, Gudrún; Gudmundsson, Magnús T.; Vogfjörd, Kristin; Jonsson, Trausti; Oddsson, Björn; Reynisson, Vidir; Pagneux, Emmanuel; Barsotti, Sara; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Bergsveinsson, Sölvi; Oddsdóttir, Thorarna

    2017-04-01

    The Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes (CIV) is a newly developed open-access web resource (http://icelandicvolcanoes.is) intended to serve as an official source of information about volcanoes in Iceland for the public and decision makers. CIV contains text and graphic information on all 32 active volcanic systems in Iceland, as well as real-time data from monitoring systems in a format that enables non-specialists to understand the volcanic activity status. The CIV data portal contains scientific data on all eruptions since Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and is an unprecedented endeavour in making volcanological data open and easy to access. CIV forms a part of an integrated volcanic risk assessment project in Iceland GOSVÁ (commenced in 2012), as well as being part of the European Union funded effort FUTUREVOLC (2012-2016) on establishing an Icelandic volcano supersite. The supersite concept implies integration of space and ground based observations for improved monitoring and evaluation of volcanic hazards, and open data policy. This work is a collaboration of the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, and the Civil Protection Department of the National Commissioner of the Iceland Police, with contributions from a large number of specialists in Iceland and elsewhere.

  8. The Spotting Distribution of Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Martin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In wildfire science, spotting refers to non-local creation of new fires, due to downwind ignition of brands launched from a primary fire. Spotting is often mentioned as being one of the most difficult problems for wildfire management, because of its unpredictable nature. Since spotting is a stochastic process, it makes sense to talk about a probability distribution for spotting, which we call the spotting distribution. Given a location ahead of the fire front, we would like to know how likely is it to observe a spot fire at that location in the next few minutes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a detailed procedure to find the spotting distribution. Most prior modelling has focused on the maximum spotting distance, or on physical subprocesses. We will use mathematical modelling, which is based on detailed physical processes, to derive a spotting distribution. We discuss the use and measurement of this spotting distribution in fire spread, fire management and fire breaching. The appendix of this paper contains a comprehensive review of the relevant underlying physical sub-processes of fire plumes, launching fire brands, wind transport, falling and terminal velocity, combustion during transport, and ignition upon landing.

  9. Before, During, and After a Wildfire

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-11-01

    More and more people are making their homes in woodland settings – in or near forests, rural areas, or remote mountain sites - areas in which wildfires are more likely to occur. Wildfires often begin unnoticed. They spread quickly, igniting brush, trees, and homes. CDC recommends taking steps before, during, and after local wildfires to reduce the effect they have on your life.  Created: 11/1/2007 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 11/1/2007.

  10. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  11. Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Quick Links Codes & Standards News & Research Training & Events Public Education Membership Catalog Newsletters Press Room Xchange ™ (online community) Free Access Fire Sprinkler Initiative National Fire Codes ® Subscription Service ( ...

  12. Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

    KAUST Repository

    Coen, Janice L.; Douglas, Craig C.

    2010-01-01

    Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models

  13. Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

  14. Advancing Sensor Technology to Monitor Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA and partners are looking at ways to use miniature sensors to monitor air quality near wildfires. Data from these small sensors can complement measurements obtained from more complex regulatory-grade monitors that are stationary.

  15. Modeling Wildfire Hazard in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bylow, D.

    2012-12-01

    Wildfire regimes are a leading driver of global environmental change affecting a diverse array of global ecosystems. Particulates and aerosols produced by wildfires are a primary source of air pollution making the early detection and monitoring of wildfires crucial. The objectives of this study were to model regional wildfire potential and identify environmental, topological, and sociological factors that contribute to the ignition of wildfire events in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas of South Asia. The environmental, topological, and sociological factors were used to model regional wildfire potential through multi-criteria evaluation using a method of weighted linear combination. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and geographic information systems (GIS) data were integrated to analyze regional wildfires and construct the model. Model validation was performed using a holdout cross validation method. The study produced a significant model of wildfire potential in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas.; Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas ; Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas Wildfire Potential

  16. Ruiz Volcano: Preliminary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Volcano, Colombia (4.88°N, 75.32°W). All times are local (= GMT -5 hours).An explosive eruption on November 13, 1985, melted ice and snow in the summit area, generating lahars that flowed tens of kilometers down flank river valleys, killing more than 20,000 people. This is history's fourth largest single-eruption death toll, behind only Tambora in 1815 (92,000), Krakatau in 1883 (36,000), and Mount Pelée in May 1902 (28,000). The following briefly summarizes the very preliminary and inevitably conflicting information that had been received by press time.

  17. Wildfires in Chile: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Úbeda, Xavier; Sarricolea, Pablo

    2016-11-01

    This paper reviews the literature examining the wildfire phenomenon in Chile. Since ancient times, Chile's wildfires have shaped the country's landscape, but today, as in many other parts of the world, the fire regime - pattern, frequency and intensity - has grown at an alarming rate. In 2014, > 8000 fires were responsible for burning c. 130,000 ha, making it the worst year in Chile's recent history. The reasons for this increase appear to be the increment in the area planted with flammable species; the rejection of these landscape modifications on the part of local communities that target these plantations in arson attacks; and, the adoption of intensive forest management practices resulting in the accumulation of a high fuel load. These trends have left many native species in a precarious situation and forest plantation companies under considerable financial pressure. An additional problem is posed by fires at the wildland urban interface (WUI), threatening those inhabitants that live in Chile's most heavily populated cities. The prevalence of natural fires in Chile; the relationship between certain plant species and fire in terms of seed germination strategies and plant adaptation; the relationship between fire and invasive species; and, the need for fire prevention systems and territorial plans that include fire risk assessments are some of the key aspects discussed in this article. Several of the questions raised will require further research, including just how fire-dependent the ecosystems in Chile are, how the forest at the WUI can be better managed to prevent human and material damage, and how best to address the social controversy that pits the Mapuche population against the timber companies.

  18. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

    2014-12-01

    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  19. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  20. Eruptive viscosity and volcano morphology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Posin, S.B.; Greeley, R.

    1988-01-01

    Terrestrial central volcanoes formed predominantly from lava flows were classified as shields, stratovolcanoes, and domes. Shield volcanoes tend to be large in areal extent, have convex slopes, and are characterized by their resemblance to inverted hellenic war shields. Stratovolcanoes have concave slopes, whereas domes are smaller and have gentle convex slopes near the vent that increase near the perimeter. In addition to these differences in morphology, several other variations were observed. The most important is composition: shield volcanoes tend to be basaltic, stratovolcanoes tend to be andesitic, and domes tend to be dacitic. However, important exceptions include Fuji, Pico, Mayon, Izalco, and Fuego which have stratovolcano morphologies but are composed of basaltic lavas. Similarly, Ribkwo is a Kenyan shield volcano composed of trachyte and Suswa and Kilombe are shields composed of phonolite. These exceptions indicate that eruptive conditions, rather than composition, may be the primary factors that determine volcano morphology. The objective of this study is to determine the relationships, if any, between eruptive conditions (viscosity, erupted volume, and effusion rate) and effusive volcano morphology. Moreover, it is the goal of this study to incorporate these relationships into a model to predict the eruptive conditions of extraterrestrial (Martian) volcanoes based on their morphology

  1. Soufriere Hills Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    In this ASTER image of Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat in the Caribbean, continued eruptive activity is evident by the extensive smoke and ash plume streaming towards the west-southwest. Significant eruptive activity began in 1995, forcing the authorities to evacuate more than 7,000 of the island's original population of 11,000. The primary risk now is to the northern part of the island and to the airport. Small rockfalls and pyroclastic flows (ash, rock and hot gases) are common at this time due to continued growth of the dome at the volcano's summit.This image was acquired on October 29, 2002 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance.Dr. Anne Kahle at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, is the U.S. Science team leader; Bjorn Eng of JPL is the project manager. The Terra mission is part of NASA

  2. Federal Wildfire Activities. Current Strategy and Issues Needing Attention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1999-01-01

    Concerned about the rising costs of preparing for and controlling wildfires, you asked us to provide information on how the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management manage their wildfire programs...

  3. Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Founded in 1912 at the edge of the caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, HVO was the vision of Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., a geologist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, whose studies of natural disasters around the world had convinced him that systematic, continuous observations of seismic and volcanic activity were needed to better understand—and potentially predict—earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Jaggar summarized the aim of HVO by stating that “the work should be humanitarian” and have the goals of developing “prediction and methods of protecting life and property on the basis of sound scientific achievement.” These goals align well with those of the USGS, whose mission is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage natural resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.

  4. Volcanoes, Third Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nye, Christopher J.

    It takes confidence to title a smallish book merely “Volcanoes” because of the impliction that the myriad facets of volcanism—chemistry, physics, geology, meteorology, hazard mitigation, and more—have been identified and addressed to some nontrivial level of detail. Robert and Barbara Decker have visited these different facets seamlessly in Volcanoes, Third Edition. The seamlessness comes from a broad overarching, interdisciplinary, professional understanding of volcanism combined with an exceptionally smooth translation of scientific jargon into plain language.The result is a book which will be informative to a very broad audience, from reasonably educated nongeologists (my mother loves it) to geology undergraduates through professional volcanologists. I bet that even the most senior professional volcanologists will learn at least a few things from this book and will find at least a few provocative discussions of subjects they know.

  5. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  6. Quantifying Hillslope to Watershed Erosional Response Following Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, S.; Pierson, F. B.; Williams, C. J.; Brooks, E. S.; Strand, E. K.; Seyfried, M. S.; Murdock, M.; Pierce, J. L.; Roehner, C.; Lindsay, K.; Robichaud, P. R.; Brown, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Across the western US, wildfires in sagebrush vegetation are occurring at a more frequent rate and higher severity. This has resulted in a decline of sagebrush rangeland. The changing fire regime can be attributed to invasive plant species and warming climate conditions. As the result of wildfire, protective vegetation cover is removed leaving the soil bare and exposed to erosion. Erosion following wildfire is a main concern among land managers due to the threat it poses to resources, infrastructure, and human health. Numerous studies have used artificial rainfall to assess post-fire runoff and erosion and rehabilitation treatment effectiveness. These results have found that high intensity rain events typical of summer convective storms drive post-fire erosion. The purpose of this study is to improve scientific understanding of how site-specific physical and biological attributes affect hillslope to watershed scale sediment yield on a mountainous burned sagebrush landscape. This study uses natural rainfall and a network of silt fences to quantify hillslope to watershed scale erosion response. The erosional drivers over various spatial scales were evaluated in context with vegetation recovery for a 2 year post-fire period. A network of silt fences was installed over long and short hillslope distances and in swales within the 130 ha Murphy Creek catchment in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. We evaluated: 1) vegetation, soils, and sediment delivery across multiple spatial scales associated with 30 silt fences spanning north and south facing aspects, 2) precipitation input at two meteorological stations, and 3) watershed streamflow and sediment discharge from an existing weir. During the first and second year post-fire, the swales on both aspects produced more sediment than the short and long hillslopes. The results suggest that significant amounts of sediment and organic matter were deposited in the swales creating drifts. Sediment

  7. Volcanoes in Eruption - Set 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The word volcano is used to refer to the opening from which molten rock and gas issue from Earth's interior onto the surface, and also to the cone, hill, or mountain...

  8. Volcanoes in Eruption - Set 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The word volcano is used to refer to the opening from which molten rock and gas issue from Earth's interior onto the surface, and also to the cone, hill, or mountain...

  9. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  10. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-06-01

    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Kate Marcille

    2012-01-01

    The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary...

  12. Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...

  13. Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2010-01-01

    Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

  14. GLACIERS OF THE KORYAK VOLCANO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Manevich

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents main glaciological characteristics of present-day glaciers located on the Koryaksky volcano. The results of fieldwork (2008–2009 and high-resolution satellite image analysis let us to specify and complete information on modern glacial complex of Koryaksky volcano. Now there are seven glaciers with total area 8.36 km2. Three of them advance, two are in stationary state and one degrades. Moreover, the paper describes the new crater glacier.

  15. Radon emanometry in active volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seidel, J.L.; Monnin, M. (CNRS, IN2P3, BP45/F63170 Aubiere (France)); Cejudo, J. (Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares, Mexico City)

    1984-01-01

    Radon emission measurements from active volcanoes has, since 1981, been continuously measured at monitoring stations in Mexico and in Costa Rica. Counting of etched alpha tracks on cellulose nitrate LR-115 detectors give varying results at the several stations. Radon emanation at Chichon, where an explosive eruption occurred in 1982, fell down. Radon detection at the active volcano in Colima shows a pattern of very low emission. At the Costa Rica stations located at Poas, Arenal and Irazu, the radon emanation shows regularity.

  16. Vertical Motions of Oceanic Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clague, D. A.; Moore, J. G.

    2006-12-01

    Oceanic volcanoes offer abundant evidence of changes in their elevations through time. Their large-scale motions begin with a period of rapid subsidence lasting hundreds of thousands of years caused by isostatic compensation of the added mass of the volcano on the ocean lithosphere. The response is within thousands of years and lasts as long as the active volcano keeps adding mass on the ocean floor. Downward flexure caused by volcanic loading creates troughs around the growing volcanoes that eventually fill with sediment. Seismic surveys show that the overall depression of the old ocean floor beneath Hawaiian volcanoes such as Mauna Loa is about 10 km. This gross subsidence means that the drowned shorelines only record a small part of the total subsidence the islands experienced. In Hawaii, this history is recorded by long-term tide-gauge data, the depth in drill holes of subaerial lava flows and soil horizons, former shorelines presently located below sea level. Offshore Hawaii, a series of at least 7 drowned reefs and terraces record subsidence of about 1325 m during the last half million years. Older sequences of drowned reefs and terraces define the early rapid phase of subsidence of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau. Volcanic islands, such as Maui, tip down toward the next younger volcano as it begins rapid growth and subsidence. Such tipping results in drowned reefs on Haleakala as deep as 2400 m where they are tipped towards Hawaii. Flat-topped volcanoes on submarine rift zones also record this tipping towards the next younger volcano. This early rapid subsidence phase is followed by a period of slow subsidence lasting for millions of years caused by thermal contraction of the aging ocean lithosphere beneath the volcano. The well-known evolution along the Hawaiian chain from high to low volcanic island, to coral island, and to guyot is due to this process. This history of rapid and then slow subsidence is interrupted by a period of minor uplift

  17. Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella

    2014-05-01

    We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

  18. Chiliques volcano, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    A January 6, 2002 ASTER nighttime thermal infrared image of Chiliques volcano in Chile shows a hot spot in the summit crater and several others along the upper flanks of the edifice, indicating new volcanic activity. Examination of an earlier nighttime thermal infrared image from May 24,2000 showed no thermal anomaly. Chiliques volcano was previously thought to be dormant. Rising to an elevation of 5778 m, Chiliques is a simple stratovolcano with a 500-m-diameter circular summit crater. This mountain is one of the most important high altitude ceremonial centers of the Incas. It is rarely visited due to its difficult accessibility. Climbing to the summit along Inca trails, numerous ruins are encountered; at the summit there are a series of constructions used for rituals. There is a beautiful lagoon in the crater that is almost always frozen.The daytime image was acquired on November 19, 2000 and was created by displaying ASTER bands 1,2 and 3 in blue, green and red. The nighttime image was acquired January 6, 2002, and is a color-coded display of a single thermal infrared band. The hottest areas are white, and colder areas are darker shades of red. Both images cover an area of 7.5 x 7.5 km, and are centered at 23.6 degrees south latitude, 67.6 degrees west longitude.Both images cover an area of 7.5 x 7.5 km, and are centered at 23.6 degrees south latitude, 67.6 degrees west longitude.These images were acquired by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER will image Earth for the next 6 years to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18,1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U

  19. Desertification and other ecological impacts produced by the historic Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire of 2000, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neary, D.; Ffolliott, P.; Stropki, C.

    2009-04-01

    of water bars, wattles, k-rails, and aerial seeding and mulching of herbaceous plants to mitigate that anticipated accelerated post-fire soil erosion, began immediately after the fire was extinguished and it was declared safe for people to enter the burned area and initiate rehabilitation. An assessment of the impacts of the Rodeo-Chediski wildfire on soil erosion was carried out on two watersheds situated at the headwaters of the Little Colorado River. One of the watersheds experienced a high severity burn and the other a low-to-medium severity burn. Estimates of soil erosion on a watershed-basis and relative to physiographic characteristics on the two watersheds following the (a) high-intensity summer monsoonal rains and (2) low-intensity winter precipitation and spring snowmelt-runoff events are presented and compared with estimates of soil erosion following other wildfires in the region. Monitoring of soil erosion and other hydrologic and ecological parameters is continuing to obtain a longer, more comprehensive picture of the impacts of this catastrophic wildfire event. The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire altered the species composition and impacted the production of herbaceous plants on the burned watersheds studied. Effects of the post-fire vegetation changes reduced the capabilities of watersheds to support livestock and some of the other larger herbivores in the region. When these watersheds will return to pre-fire conditions is largely unknown. Not only must the forage resources be restored but the magnitude of post-fire soil erosion and accompanying nutrient losses must be mitigated. Post-fire rehabilitation efforts including the seeding of herbaceous species and installation of controls to reduce soil erosion and sedimentation processes have helped to accelerate this recovery to some extent. A much longer time will obviously be required for severely burned areas to recover than those areas burned by at a low severity. Portions of the latter have already returned

  20. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  1. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  2. Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Sperry

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.

  3. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  4. Understanding ecological transitions under recurrent wildfire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Malhi, Yadvinder; Rojas Landívar, Víctor Diego; Oliveras Menor, Imma

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires in tropical forests are likely to become a more dominant disturbance due to future increasing feedbacks between rapid frontier expansion and more frequent droughts. This study evaluates the effects of fire recurrence on seasonally dry tropical forests of the Chiquitania region, located

  5. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  6. Relative chronology of Martian volcanoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landheim, R.; Barlow, N.G.

    1991-01-01

    Impact cratering is one of the major geological processes that has affected the Martian surface throughout the planet's history. The frequency of craters within particular size ranges provides information about the formation ages and obliterative episodes of Martian geologic units. The Barlow chronology was extended by measuring small craters on the volcanoes and a number of standard terrain units. Inclusions of smaller craters in units previously analyzed by Barlow allowed for a more direct comparison between the size-frequency distribution data for volcanoes and established chronology. During this study, 11,486 craters were mapped and identified in the 1.5 to 8 km diameter range in selected regions of Mars. The results are summarized in this three page report and give a more precise estimate of the relative chronology of the Martian volcanoes. Also, the results of this study lend further support to the increasing evidence that volcanism has been a dominant geologic force throughout Martian history

  7. Systematic radon survey over active volcanoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seidel, J.L.; Monnin, M.; Garcia Vindas, J.R. [Centre National de la Recherche Cientifique, Montpellier (France). Lab. GBE; Ricard, L.P.; Staudacher, T. [Observatoire Volcanologique Du Pitou de la Fournaise, La Plaine des Cafres (France)

    1999-08-01

    Data obtained since 1993 on Costa Rica volcanos are presented and radon anomalies recorded before the eruption of the Irazu volcano (December 8, 1994) are discussed. The Piton de la Fournaise volcano is inactive since mid 1992. The influence of the external parameters on the radon behaviour is studied and the type of perturbations induced on short-term measurements are individuate.

  8. Multiphase modelling of mud volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colucci, Simone; de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Clarke, Amanda B.

    2015-04-01

    Mud volcanism is a worldwide phenomenon, classically considered as the surface expression of piercement structures rooted in deep-seated over-pressured sediments in compressional tectonic settings. The release of fluids at mud volcanoes during repeated explosive episodes has been documented at numerous sites and the outflows resemble the eruption of basaltic magma. As magma, the material erupted from a mud volcano becomes more fluid and degasses while rising and decompressing. The release of those gases from mud volcanism is estimated to be a significant contributor both to fluid flux from the lithosphere to the hydrosphere, and to the atmospheric budget of some greenhouse gases, particularly methane. For these reasons, we simulated the fluid dynamics of mud volcanoes using a newly-developed compressible multiphase and multidimensional transient solver in the OpenFOAM framework, taking into account the multicomponent nature (CH4, CO2, H2O) of the fluid mixture, the gas exsolution during the ascent and the associated changes in the constitutive properties of the phases. The numerical model has been tested with conditions representative of the LUSI, a mud volcano that has been erupting since May 2006 in the densely populated Sidoarjo regency (East Java, Indonesia), forcing the evacuation of 40,000 people and destroying industry, farmland, and over 10,000 homes. The activity of LUSI mud volcano has been well documented (Vanderkluysen et al., 2014) and here we present a comparison of observed gas fluxes and mud extrusion rates with the outcomes of numerical simulations. Vanderkluysen, L.; Burton, M. R.; Clarke, A. B.; Hartnett, H. E. & Smekens, J.-F. Composition and flux of explosive gas release at LUSI mud volcano (East Java, Indonesia) Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., Wiley-Blackwell, 2014, 15, 2932-2946

  9. Alaska volcanoes guidebook for teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adleman, Jennifer N.

    2011-01-01

    Alaska’s volcanoes, like its abundant glaciers, charismatic wildlife, and wild expanses inspire and ignite scientific curiosity and generate an ever-growing source of questions for students in Alaska and throughout the world. Alaska is home to more than 140 volcanoes, which have been active over the last 2 million years. About 90 of these volcanoes have been active within the last 10,000 years and more than 50 of these have been active since about 1700. The volcanoes in Alaska make up well over three-quarters of volcanoes in the United States that have erupted in the last 200 years. In fact, Alaska’s volcanoes erupt so frequently that it is almost guaranteed that an Alaskan will experience a volcanic eruption in his or her lifetime, and it is likely they will experience more than one. It is hard to imagine a better place for students to explore active volcanism and to understand volcanic hazards, phenomena, and global impacts. Previously developed teachers’ guidebooks with an emphasis on the volcanoes in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (Mattox, 1994) and Mount Rainier National Park in the Cascade Range (Driedger and others, 2005) provide place-based resources and activities for use in other volcanic regions in the United States. Along the lines of this tradition, this guidebook serves to provide locally relevant and useful resources and activities for the exploration of numerous and truly unique volcanic landscapes in Alaska. This guidebook provides supplemental teaching materials to be used by Alaskan students who will be inspired to become educated and prepared for inevitable future volcanic activity in Alaska. The lessons and activities in this guidebook are meant to supplement and enhance existing science content already being taught in grade levels 6–12. Correlations with Alaska State Science Standards and Grade Level Expectations adopted by the Alaska State Department of Education and Early Development (2006) for grades six through eleven are listed at

  10. Assessing the hydrologic response to wildfires in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havel, Aaron; Tasdighi, Ali; Arabi, Mazdak

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to understand the hydrologic responses to wildfires in mountainous regions at various spatial scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the hydrologic responses of the upper Cache la Poudre Watershed in Colorado to the 2012 High Park and Hewlett wildfire events. A baseline SWAT model was established to simulate the hydrology of the study area between the years 2000 and 2014. A procedure involving land use and curve number updating was implemented to assess the effects of wildfires. Application of the proposed procedure provides the ability to simulate the hydrologic response to wildfires seamlessly through mimicking the dynamic of the changes due to wildfires. The wildfire effects on curve numbers were determined comparing the probability distribution of curve numbers after calibrating the model for pre- and post-wildfire conditions. Daily calibration and testing of the model produced very good results. No-wildfire and wildfire scenarios were created and compared to quantify changes in average annual total runoff volume, water budgets, and full streamflow statistics at different spatial scales. At the watershed scale, wildfire conditions showed little impact on the hydrologic responses. However, a runoff increase up to 75 % was observed between the scenarios in sub-watersheds with high burn intensity. Generally, higher surface runoff and decreased subsurface flow were observed under post-wildfire conditions. Flow duration curves developed for burned sub-watersheds using full streamflow statistics showed that less frequent streamflows become greater in magnitude. A linear regression model was developed to assess the relationship between percent burned area and runoff increase in Cache la Poudre Watershed. A strong (R2 > 0.8) and significant (p statistics through application of flow duration curves revealed that the wildfires had a higher effect on peak flows, which may increase the risk of flash floods in post-wildfire

  11. Extraordinary Biomass-Burning Episode and Impact Winter Triggered by the Younger Dryas Cosmic Impact approximate to 12,800 Years Ago. 1. Ice Cores and Glaciers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wolbach, W. S.; Ballard, J. P.; Mayewski, P. A.; Adedeji, V.; Bunch, T. E.; Firestone, R. B.; French, T. A.; Howard, G. A.; Israde-Alcántara, I.; Johnson, J. R.; Kimbel, D. R.; Kinzie, Ch. R.; Kurbatov, A.; Kletetschka, Günther; LeCompte, M. A.; Mahaney, W. C.; Mellot, A. L.; Maiorana-Boutilier, A.; Mitra, S.; Moore, Ch. R.; Napier, W. M.; Parlier, J.; Tankersley, K. B.; Thomas, B. C.; Wittke, J. H.; West, A.; Kennett, J. P.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 126, č. 2 (2018), s. 165-184 ISSN 0022-1376 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : biomass burning * comet * deposition * ice core * impact * mass extinction * paleoclimate * paleoenvironment * platinum * trigger mechanism * wildfire * winter * Younger Dryas Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy OBOR OECD: Geology Impact factor: 1.952, year: 2016

  12. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  13. Interactive influences of wildfire and nonnative species on plant community succession in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alison Ainsworth

    2007-01-01

    The role of fire as a natural disturbance, its interactions with nonnative species and effects of repeated fires in the Hawaiian Islands have received little investigation. We are unsure of the role fire played in shaping forest structure and composition as well as affecting evolutionary processes of the native biota. Yet, many species do have adaptations that...

  14. Laboratory volcano geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Færøvik Johannessen, Rikke; Galland, Olivier; Mair, Karen

    2014-05-01

    intrusion can be excavated and photographed from several angles to compute its 3D shape with the same photogrammetry method. Then, the surface deformation pattern can be directly compared with the shape of underlying intrusion. This quantitative dataset is essential to quantitatively test and validate classical volcano geodetic models.

  15. What Happened to Our Volcano?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiante, Elaine Silva

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author presents an investigative approach to "understanding Earth changes." The author states that students were familiar with earthquakes and volcanoes in other regions of the world but never considered how the land beneath their feet had experienced changes over time. Here, their geology unit helped them understand…

  16. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern hemisp...... of contracts for workers is more likely to explain differences in seasonal activity than climatic or technological factors....

  17. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  18. Morphometry of terrestrial shield volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Pablo; Kervyn, Matthieu

    2018-03-01

    Shield volcanoes are described as low-angle edifices built primarily by the accumulation of successive lava flows. This generic view of shield volcano morphology is based on a limited number of monogenetic shields from Iceland and Mexico, and a small set of large oceanic islands (Hawaii, Galápagos). Here, the morphometry of 158 monogenetic and polygenetic shield volcanoes is analyzed quantitatively from 90-meter resolution SRTM DEMs using the MORVOLC algorithm. An additional set of 24 lava-dominated 'shield-like' volcanoes, considered so far as stratovolcanoes, are documented for comparison. Results show that there is a large variation in shield size (volumes from 0.1 to > 1000 km3), profile shape (height/basal width (H/WB) ratios mostly from 0.01 to 0.1), flank slope gradients (average slopes mostly from 1° to 15°), elongation and summit truncation. Although there is no clear-cut morphometric difference between shield volcanoes and stratovolcanoes, an approximate threshold can be drawn at 12° average slope and 0.10 H/WB ratio. Principal component analysis of the obtained database enables to identify four key morphometric descriptors: size, steepness, plan shape and truncation. Hierarchical cluster analysis of these descriptors results in 12 end-member shield types, with intermediate cases defining a continuum of morphologies. The shield types can be linked in terms of growth stages and shape evolution, related to (1) magma composition and rheology, effusion rate and lava/pyroclast ratio, which will condition edifice steepness; (2) spatial distribution of vents, in turn related to the magmatic feeding system and the tectonic framework, which will control edifice plan shape; and (3) caldera formation, which will condition edifice truncation.

  19. Iridium emissions from Hawaiian volcanoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finnegan, D.L.; Zoller, W.H.; Miller, T.M.

    1988-01-01

    Particle and gas samples were collected at Mauna Loa volcano during and after its eruption in March and April, 1984 and at Kilauea volcano in 1983, 1984, and 1985 during various phases of its ongoing activity. In the last two Kilauea sampling missions, samples were collected during eruptive activity. The samples were collected using a filterpack system consisting of a Teflon particle filter followed by a series of 4 base-treated Whatman filters. The samples were analyzed by INAA for over 40 elements. As previously reported in the literature, Ir was first detected on particle filters at the Mauna Loa Observatory and later from non-erupting high temperature vents at Kilauea. Since that time Ir was found in samples collected at Kilauea and Mauna Loa during fountaining activity as well as after eruptive activity. Enrichment factors for Ir in the volcanic fumes range from 10,000 to 100,000 relative to BHVO. Charcoal impregnated filters following a particle filter were collected to see if a significant amount of the Ir was in the gas phase during sample collection. Iridium was found on charcoal filters collected close to the vent, no Ir was found on the charcoal filters. This indicates that all of the Ir is in particulate form very soon after its release. Ratios of Ir to F and Cl were calculated for the samples from Mauna Loa and Kilauea collected during fountaining activity. The implications for the KT Ir anomaly are still unclear though as Ir was not found at volcanoes other than those at Hawaii. Further investigations are needed at other volcanoes to ascertain if basaltic volcanoes other than hot spots have Ir enrichments in their fumes

  20. Iridium emissions from Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnegan, D. L.; Zoller, W. H.; Miller, T. M.

    1988-01-01

    Particle and gas samples were collected at Mauna Loa volcano during and after its eruption in March and April, 1984 and at Kilauea volcano in 1983, 1984, and 1985 during various phases of its ongoing activity. In the last two Kilauea sampling missions, samples were collected during eruptive activity. The samples were collected using a filterpack system consisting of a Teflon particle filter followed by a series of 4 base-treated Whatman filters. The samples were analyzed by INAA for over 40 elements. As previously reported in the literature, Ir was first detected on particle filters at the Mauna Loa Observatory and later from non-erupting high temperature vents at Kilauea. Since that time Ir was found in samples collected at Kilauea and Mauna Loa during fountaining activity as well as after eruptive activity. Enrichment factors for Ir in the volcanic fumes range from 10,000 to 100,000 relative to BHVO. Charcoal impregnated filters following a particle filter were collected to see if a significant amount of the Ir was in the gas phase during sample collection. Iridium was found on charcoal filters collected close to the vent, no Ir was found on the charcoal filters. This indicates that all of the Ir is in particulate form very soon after its release. Ratios of Ir to F and Cl were calculated for the samples from Mauna Loa and Kilauea collected during fountaining activity. The implications for the KT Ir anomaly are still unclear though as Ir was not found at volcanoes other than those at Hawaii. Further investigations are needed at other volcanoes to ascertain if basaltic volcanoes other than hot spots have Ir enrichments in their fumes.

  1. Air-cooled volcanoes ? New insights on convective airflow process within Miyakejima and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, R.; Geshi, N.; Kurita, K.; Aoki, Y.; Ichihara, M.; Staudacher, T.; Bachelery, P.

    2012-04-01

    Subsurface airflow in the unsaturated zone of the soil has been extensively investigated in a variety of disciplines such as mining, nuclear waste or agriculture science. In volcanology, the recent discovery of subsurface airflow close to the terminal cone of Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island, France) provides for the first time insights into the convective behavior of air within the unsaturated layer [1]. The characteristics of the aerothermal system, its occurrence in other volcanoes, its ability to transport heat during quiescent periods and the perturbation of this system before eruptions are the key questions we want to address following this discovery. In this study, we present observations of subsurface convective airflow within opened fractures located at the summit of Miyakejima and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes from anemometric and temperature data. Two anemometers and thermocouples were placed at the surface and at the center of the fracture at two-meter depth during a diurnal cycle. Six thermocouples also measured the temperature at 1 meter-depth, on a profile set perpendicularly to the fracture. Finally, a thermal camera was used to make punctual measurements of the surface temperature of the fracture. At Miyakejima, two surveys were realized in winter 2010 and summer 2011. During the winter, mild air exit was detected from the fracture with a central vertical velocity of 20 to 50 cm/s. The temperature of the site was constant during the diurnal cycle (~ 22°C), leading to a maximum temperature contrast of 15°C between the fracture and the atmosphere just before sunrise. During summer, a different hydrodynamic behavior was observed: Air inflow was detected during the whole diurnal cycle with a mean velocity of 20 cm/s. The temperature of the fracture followed the temperature of the atmosphere at 2 meters-depth. In the case of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, the same convective behavior was observed at two different fractures during

  2. Differential recovery of water quality parameters eight years after severe wildfire and salvage logging in Alberta's southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silins, U.; Bladon, K. D.; Stone, M.; Emelko, M. B.; Collins, A.; Boon, S.; Williams, C.; Wagner, M. J.; Martens, A. M.; Anderson, A.

    2012-12-01

    Broad regions of western North America rely on water supplies that originate from forested regions of the Rocky Mountain cordillera where landuse pressures, and stresses including changing natural disturbance regimes associated with shifting climates has been impacting critical source water supplies from this region. Increases in magnitude and severity of wildfires along with impacts on downstream water supplies has been observed along the length of the North American Rocky Mountain chain, however, the longevity of these impacts (including impacts to important water quality parameters) remain highly uncertain because processes regulating recovery from such disturbances can span a range of timescales from a few years to decades depending on both the hydro-climatic regime, and which water quality parameters are important. Studies document such long-term changes are few. The Southern Rockies Watershed Project (SRWP) was established to document the magnitude and recovery from the severe 2003 Lost Creek wildfire in the Crowsnest Pass region of southwest Alberta, Canada. Hydrology, water quality (physical & chemical) have been studies in 9 instrumented catchments (4-14 km2) encompassing burned, burned and salvage logged, prescribed burned, and unburned (reference) conditions since late winter 2004. While most important water quality parameters were strongly elevated in burned and burned-salvage logged catchments after the fire, strongly differential rates of recovery were observed for contaminant concentration, export, and yield across a range of water quality parameters (2004-2011). For example, while various nitrogen (N) species (total nitrogen, dissolved nitrogen, NO3-, NH4+) showed 2-7 fold increases in concentration the first 1-2 years after the wildfire, N recovered back to baseline concentrations 4-5 years after the wildfire. In contrast, eight full years after the wildfire (2011), no recovery of sediment or phosphorus (P) production (soluble reactive, total

  3. Technology and the study of wildfire: Middle school students study the impacts of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox-Gliessman, D.; Kerski, J.J.

    2005-01-01

    Various technologies that can assist students in exploring the human and environmental impacts of wildfire and in communicating their findings are discussed. Wildfires occur in many parts of the world, and provide an excellent opportunity for students to study local and global interdisciplinary issues using technology. Prior to the beginning of the field study, students take instructions in both their math and science classes about the distinction and appropriate uses of quantitative and qualitative data. Use of computer programs such as Excel spreadsheets which can contain data, and interaction of research and technology group with students, can help them collect best of the information and in making an accurate report.

  4. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  5. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  6. Aleutian Islands Coastal Resources Inventory and Environmental Sensitivity Maps: VOLCANOS (Volcano Points)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains point locations of active volcanoes as compiled by Motyka et al., 1993. Eighty-nine volcanoes with eruptive phases in the Quaternary are...

  7. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Information on Specific Types of Emergencies Situation Awareness Hurricanes Wildfire Flooding Earthquakes Volcanos Winter Weather Recent Outbreaks ... 2007 2006 Natural Disasters and Severe Weather 2016 Hurricane Matthew Radiation Emergencies Chemical Emergencies Bioterrorism Information for ...

  8. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Situation Awareness Hurricanes Wildfire Flooding Earthquakes Volcanos Winter Weather Recent Outbreaks and Incidents 2017 2016 2015 2014 ... 2009 2008 2007 2006 Natural Disasters and Severe Weather 2016 Hurricane Matthew Radiation Emergencies Chemical Emergencies Bioterrorism ...

  9. Flank tectonics of Martian volcanoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P.J.; Squyres, S.W.; Carr, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    On the flanks of Olympus Mons is a series of terraces, concentrically distributed around the caldera. Their morphology and location suggest that they could be thrust faults caused by compressional failure of the cone. In an attempt to understand the mechanism of faulting and the possible influences of the interior structure of Olympus Mons, the authors have constructed a numerical model for elastic stresses within a Martian volcano. In the absence of internal pressurization, the middle slopes of the cone are subjected to compressional stress, appropriate to the formation of thrust faults. These stresses for Olympus Mons are ∼250 MPa. If a vacant magma chamber is contained within the cone, the region of maximum compressional stress is extended toward the base of the cone. If the magma chamber is pressurized, extensional stresses occur at the summit and on the upper slopes of the cone. For a filled but unpressurized magma chamber, the observed positions of the faults agree well with the calculated region of high compressional stress. Three other volcanoes on Mars, Ascraeus Mons, Arsia Mons, and Pavonis Mons, possess similar terraces. Extending the analysis to other Martian volcanoes, they find that only these three and Olympus Mons have flank stresses that exceed the compressional failure strength of basalt, lending support to the view that the terraces on all four are thrust faults

  10. Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Uma Shankar; Robert E. Keane; E. Natasha Stavros; Warren E. Heilman; Douglas G. Fox; Allen C. Riebau

    2014-01-01

    Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for...

  11. Efficient and Equitable Design of Wildfire Mitigation Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Karen L. Abt; Robert Huggett; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2007-01-01

    Natural resource economists have addresssed the economic effienciency of expenditures on wildfire mitigation for nearly a century (Gope and Gorte 1979). Beginning with the work of Sparhawk (1925), the theory of efficent wildfire mitigation developed alolng conceptual lines drawn form neoclassical economics. The objective of the traditional least-cost-plus-loss model...

  12. Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

    2013-01-01

    The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

  13. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

  14. Wildfire Mitigation and Private Lands: Managing Long-Term Vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Muller; Stacey Schulte

    2006-01-01

    Long-term management of wildfire vulnerability requires strategies that address complex interactions between fire ecology and human settlement. In this paper, we examine the integration of wildfire mitigation and land use planning in county governments in the western U.S. This research relies on data from two sources. First, we conducted a survey of land use...

  15. Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

  16. National database for calculating fuel available to wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Nancy H.F. French; Roger D. Ottmar

    2012-01-01

    Wildfires are increasingly emerging as an important component of Earth system models, particularly those that involve emissions from fires and their effects on climate. Currently, there are few resources available for estimating emissions from wildfires in real time, at subcontinental scales, in a spatially consistent manner. Developing subcontinental-scale databases...

  17. Effects of wildfire on soil nutrients in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caon, L.; Vallejo, V.R.; Ritsema, C.J.; Geissen, V.

    2014-01-01

    High-intensity and fast-spreading wildfires are natural in the Mediterranean basin. However, since 1960, wildfire occurrence has increased because of changes in land use, which resulted in extensive land abandonment, increases in the fuel load and continuity in the landscape. The level of soil

  18. Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

    2015-08-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

    2015-01-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

  20. WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.

    2012-10-10

    This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

  1. Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

  2. Comparing resource values at risk from wildfires with Forest Service fire suppression expenditures: Examples from 2003 western Montana wildfire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Calkin; Kevin Hyde; Krista Gebert; Greg Jones

    2005-01-01

    Determining the economic effectiveness of wildfire suppression activities is complicated by difficulties in identifying the area that would have burned and the associated resource value changes had suppression resources not been employed. We developed a case study using break-even analysis for two large wildfires from the 2003 fire season in western Montana -- the...

  3. A tale of two fires: The relative effectiveness of past wildfires in mitigating wildfire behavior and effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert W. Gray; Susan J. Prichard

    2015-01-01

    The incidence of large, costly landscape-scale fires in western North America is increasing. To combat these fires, researchers and managers have expressed increased interest in investigating the effectiveness of past, stand-replacing wildfires as bottom-up controls on fire spread and severity. Specifically, how effective are past wildfires in mitigating the behavior...

  4. Winter Frost and Fog

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    This somewhat oblique blue wide angle Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows the 174 km (108 mi) diameter crater, Terby, and its vicinity in December 2004. Located north of Hellas, this region can be covered with seasonal frost and ground-hugging fog, even in the afternoon, despite being north of 30oS. The subtle, wavy pattern is a manifestation of fog. Location near: 28oS, 286oW Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Winter

  5. K-Ar ages of the Hiruzen volcano group and the Daisen volcano

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsukui, Masashi; Nishido, Hirotsugu; Nagao, Keisuke.

    1985-01-01

    Seventeen volcanic rocks of the Hiruzen volcano group and the Daisen volcano, in southwest Japan, were dated by the K-Ar method to clarify the age of volcanic activity in this region and the evolution of these composite volcanoes. The eruption ages of the Hiruzen volcano group were revealed to be about 0.9 Ma to 0.5 Ma, those of the Daisen volcano to be about 1 Ma to very recent. These results are consistent with geological and paleomagnetic data of previous workers. Effusion of lavas in the area was especially vigorous at 0.5+-0.1 Ma. It was generally considered that the Hiruzen volcano group had erupted during latest Pliocene to early Quaternary and it is older than the Daisen volcano, mainly from their topographic features. However, their overlapping eruption ages and petrographical similarities of the lavas of the Hiruzen volcano group and the Daisen volcano suggest that they may be included in the Daisen volcano in a broad sense. The aphyric andesite, whose eruption age had been correlated to Wakurayama andesite (6.34+-0.19 Ma) in Matsue city and thought to be the basement of the Daisen volcano, was dated to be 0.46+-0.04 Ma. It indicates that petrographically similar aphyric andesite erupted sporadically at different time and space in the San'in district. (author)

  6. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  7. Spirit's Winter Work Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Annotated Version This portion of an image acquired by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment camera shows the Spirit rover's winter campaign site. Spirit was parked on a slope tilted 11 degrees to the north to maximize sunlight during the southern winter season. 'Tyrone' is an area where the rover's wheels disturbed light-toned soils. Remote sensing and in-situ analyses found the light-toned soil at Tyrone to be sulfate rich and hydrated. The original picture is catalogued as PSP_001513_1655_red and was taken on Sept. 29, 2006. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project and built the spacecraft. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment is operated by the University of Arizona, Tucson, and the instrument was built by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corp., Boulder, Colo.

  8. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  9. Geoflicks Reviewed--Films about Hawaiian Volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bykerk-Kauffman, Ann

    1994-01-01

    Reviews 11 films on volcanic eruptions in the United States. Films are given a one- to five-star rating and the film's year, length, source and price are listed. Top films include "Inside Hawaiian Volcanoes" and "Kilauea: Close up of an Active Volcano." (AIM)

  10. Orographic Flow over an Active Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

    2014-05-01

    Orographic flows over and around an isolated volcano are studied through a series of numerical model experiments. The volcano top has a heated surface, so can be thought of as "active" but not erupting. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and using both idealised and realistic configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model have been carried out. The study is based on the Soufriere Hills volcano, located on the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean. This is a dome-building volcano, leading to a sharp increase in the surface skin temperature at the top of the volcano - up to tens of degrees higher than ambient values. The majority of the simulations use an idealised topography, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the tropics. The model is initialised with idealised atmospheric soundings, representative of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season in the tropics. The simulations reveal significant changes to the orographic flow response, depending upon the size of the temperature anomaly and the atmospheric conditions. The flow regime and characteristic features such as gravity waves, orographic clouds and orographic rainfall patterns can all be qualitatively changed by the surface heating anomaly. Orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased temperature anomaly. The implications for the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards will also be discussed.

  11. Spirit Scans Winter Haven

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    At least three different kinds of rocks await scientific analysis at the place where NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit will likely spend several months of Martian winter. They are visible in this picture, which the panoramic camera on Spirit acquired during the rover's 809th sol, or Martian day, of exploring Mars (April 12, 2006). Paper-thin layers of light-toned, jagged-edged rocks protrude horizontally from beneath small sand drifts; a light gray rock with smooth, rounded edges sits atop the sand drifts; and several dark gray to black, angular rocks with vesicles (small holes) typical of hardened lava lie scattered across the sand. This view is an approximately true-color rendering that combines images taken through the panoramic camera's 753-nanometer, 535-nanometer, and 432-nanometer filters.

  12. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  13. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  14. A conceptual framework for coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire to improve fireshed planning and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeff Kline; Alan A. Ager; Paige Fischer

    2015-01-01

    The need for improved methods for managing wildfire risk is becoming apparent as uncharacteristically large wildfires in the western US and elsewhere exceed government capacities for their control and suppression. We propose a coupled biophysical-social framework to managing wildfire risk that relies on wildfire simulation to identify spatial patterns of wildfire risk...

  15. The 2014 eruptions of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Haney, Matthew M.; Wallace, Kristi; Cameron, Cheryl E.; Schneider, David J.

    2017-12-22

    Pavlof Volcano is one of the most frequently active volcanoes in the Aleutian Island arc, having erupted more than 40 times since observations were first recorded in the early 1800s . The volcano is located on the Alaska Peninsula (lat 55.4173° N, long 161.8937° W), near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge. The towns and villages closest to the volcano are Cold Bay, Nelson Lagoon, Sand Point, and King Cove, which are all within 90 kilometers (km) of the volcano (fig. 1). Pavlof is a symmetrically shaped stratocone that is 2,518 meters (m) high, and has about 2,300 m of relief. The volcano supports a cover of glacial ice and perennial snow roughly 2 to 4 cubic kilometers (km3) in volume, which is mantled by variable amounts of tephra fall, rockfall debris, and pyroclastic-flow deposits produced during historical eruptions. Typical Pavlof eruptions are characterized by moderate amounts of ash emission, lava fountaining, spatter-fed lava flows, explosions, and the accumulation of unstable mounds of spatter on the upper flanks of the volcano. The accumulation and subsequent collapse of spatter piles on the upper flanks of the volcano creates hot granular avalanches, which erode and melt snow and ice, and thereby generate watery debris-flow and hyperconcentrated-flow lahars. Seismic instruments were first installed on Pavlof Volcano in the early 1970s, and since then eruptive episodes have been better characterized and specific processes have been documented with greater certainty. The application of remote sensing techniques, including the use of infrasound data, has also aided the study of more recent eruptions. Although Pavlof Volcano is located in a remote part of Alaska, it is visible from Cold Bay, Sand Point, and Nelson Lagoon, making distal observations of eruptive activity possible, weather permitting. A busy air-travel corridor that is utilized by a numerous transcontinental and regional air carriers passes near Pavlof Volcano. The frequency of air travel

  16. Exploring Geology on the World-Wide Web--Volcanoes and Volcanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimmrich, Steven Henry; Gore, Pamela J. W.

    1996-01-01

    Focuses on sites on the World Wide Web that offer information about volcanoes. Web sites are classified into areas of Global Volcano Information, Volcanoes in Hawaii, Volcanoes in Alaska, Volcanoes in the Cascades, European and Icelandic Volcanoes, Extraterrestrial Volcanism, Volcanic Ash and Weather, and Volcano Resource Directories. Suggestions…

  17. Geophysical Exploration on the Structure of Volcanoes: Two Case Histories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furumoto, A. S.

    1974-01-01

    Geophysical methods of exploration were used to determine the internal structure of Koolau Volcano in Hawaii and of Rabaul Volcano in New Guinea. By use of gravity and seismic data the central vent or plug of Koolau Volcano was outlined. Magnetic data seem to indicate that the central plug is still above the Curie Point. If so, the amount of heat energy available is tremendous. As for Rabaul Volcano, it is located in a region characterized by numerous block faulting. The volcano is only a part of a large block that has subsided. Possible geothermal areas exist near the volcano but better potential areas may exist away from the volcano.

  18. Instrumentation Recommendations for Volcano Monitoring at U.S. Volcanoes Under the National Volcano Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Seth C.; Freymueller, Jeff T.; LaHusen, Richard G.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Poland, Michael P.; Power, John A.; Schmidt, David A.; Schneider, David J.; Stephens, George; Werner, Cynthia A.; White, Randall A.

    2008-01-01

    As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding 'country rock'. Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at

  19. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-01-01

    particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence

  20. Wildfire: distributed, Grid-enabled workflow construction and execution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issac Praveen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We observe two trends in bioinformatics: (i analyses are increasing in complexity, often requiring several applications to be run as a workflow; and (ii multiple CPU clusters and Grids are available to more scientists. The traditional solution to the problem of running workflows across multiple CPUs required programming, often in a scripting language such as perl. Programming places such solutions beyond the reach of many bioinformatics consumers. Results We present Wildfire, a graphical user interface for constructing and running workflows. Wildfire borrows user interface features from Jemboss and adds a drag-and-drop interface allowing the user to compose EMBOSS (and other programs into workflows. For execution, Wildfire uses GEL, the underlying workflow execution engine, which can exploit available parallelism on multiple CPU machines including Beowulf-class clusters and Grids. Conclusion Wildfire simplifies the tasks of constructing and executing bioinformatics workflows.

  1. Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Carolyn; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes; Bassein, Jed A; Miller, Lisa A

    2017-10-01

    Understanding the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on human health represents a unique interdisciplinary challenge to the scientific community. Population health studies indicate that wildfire smoke is a risk to human health and increases the healthcare burden of smoke-impacted areas. However, wildfire smoke composition is complex and dynamic, making characterization and modeling difficult. Furthermore, current efforts to study the effect of wildfire smoke are limited by availability of air quality measures and inconsistent air quality reporting among researchers. To help address these issues, we conducted a substantive review of wildfire smoke effects on population health, wildfire smoke exposure in occupational health, and experimental wood smoke exposure. Our goal was to evaluate the current literature on wildfire smoke and highlight important gaps in research. In particular we emphasize long-term health effects of wildfire smoke, recovery following wildfire smoke exposure, and health consequences of exposure in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Unzipping of the volcano arc, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, R.J.; Smoot, N.C.; Rubin, M.

    1984-01-01

    A working hypothesis for the recent evolution of the southern Volcano Arc, Japan, is presented which calls upon a northward-progressing sundering of the arc in response to a northward-propagating back-arc basin extensional regime. This model appears to explain several localized and recent changes in the tectonic and magrnatic evolution of the Volcano Arc. Most important among these changes is the unusual composition of Iwo Jima volcanic rocks. This contrasts with normal arc tholeiites typical of the rest of the Izu-Volcano-Mariana and other primitive arcs in having alkaline tendencies, high concentrations of light REE and other incompatible elements, and relatively high silica contents. In spite of such fractionated characteristics, these lavas appear to be very early manifestations of a new volcanic and tectonic cycle in the southern Volcano Arc. These alkaline characteristics and indications of strong regional uplift are consistent with the recent development of an early stage of inter-arc basin rifting in the southern Volcano Arc. New bathymetric data are presented in support of this model which indicate: 1. (1) structural elements of the Mariana Trough extend north to the southern Volcano Arc. 2. (2) both the Mariana Trough and frontal arc shoal rapidly northwards as the Volcano Arc is approached. 3. (3) rugged bathymetry associated with the rifted Mariana Trough is replaced just south of Iwo Jima by the development of a huge dome (50-75 km diameter) centered around Iwo Jima. Such uplifted domes are the immediate precursors of rifts in other environments, and it appears that a similar situation may now exist in the southern Volcano Arc. The present distribution of unrifted Volcano Arc to the north and rifted Mariana Arc to the south is interpreted not as a stable tectonic configuration but as representing a tectonic "snapshot" of an arc in the process of being rifted to form a back-arc basin. ?? 1984.

  3. Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  4. Common processes at unique volcanoes – a volcanological conundrum

    OpenAIRE

    Katharine eCashman; Juliet eBiggs

    2014-01-01

    An emerging challenge in modern volcanology is the apparent contradiction between the perception that every volcano is unique, and classification systems based on commonalities among volcano morphology and eruptive style. On the one hand, detailed studies of individual volcanoes show that a single volcano often exhibits similar patterns of behavior over multiple eruptive episodes; this observation has led to the idea that each volcano has its own distinctive pattern of behavior (or “personali...

  5. Linking space observations to volcano observatories in Latin America: Results from the CEOS DRM Volcano Pilot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, F.; Pritchard, M. E.; Biggs, J.; Arnold, D. W. D.; Poland, M. P.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Wauthier, C.; Wnuk, K.; Parker, A. L.; Amelug, F.; Sansosti, E.; Mothes, P. A.; Macedo, O.; Lara, L.; Zoffoli, S.; Aguilar, V.

    2015-12-01

    Within Latin American, about 315 volcanoes that have been active in the Holocene, but according to the United Nations Global Assessment of Risk 2015 report (GAR15) 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) has developed a 3-year pilot project to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring, and the project is possible thanks to data provided at no cost by international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). Here we highlight several examples of how satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories during the last 18 months to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises -- for example the 2013-2014 unrest episode at Cerro Negro/Chiles (Ecuador-Colombia border); the 2015 eruptions of Villarrica and Calbuco volcanoes, Chile; the 2013-present unrest and eruptions at Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes, Peru; the 2015 unrest at Guallatiri volcano, Chile; and the 2012-present rapid uplift at Cordon Caulle, Chile. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) but thermal and outgassing data have been used in a few cases. InSAR data have helped to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. We will describe several lessons learned about the type of data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in different countries.

  6. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  7. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  8. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  9. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

  11. Hydrothermal systems and volcano geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, R.O.

    2007-01-01

    The upward intrusion of magma from deeper to shallower levels beneath volcanoes obviously plays an important role in their surface deformation. This chapter will examine less obvious roles that hydrothermal processes might play in volcanic deformation. Emphasis will be placed on the effect that the transition from brittle to plastic behavior of rocks is likely to have on magma degassing and hydrothermal processes, and on the likely chemical variations in brine and gas compositions that occur as a result of movement of aqueous-rich fluids from plastic into brittle rock at different depths. To a great extent, the model of hydrothermal processes in sub-volcanic systems that is presented here is inferential, based in part on information obtained from deep drilling for geothermal resources, and in part on the study of ore deposits that are thought to have formed in volcanic and shallow plutonic environments.

  12. The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, L.A.; Champ, P.A.; Loomis, J.B.

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is $9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be $84.42 per exposed person per day. ?? 2011.

  13. Lahar hazards at Mombacho Volcano, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallance, J.W.; Schilling, S.P.; Devoli, G.

    2001-01-01

    Mombacho volcano, at 1,350 meters, is situated on the shores of Lake Nicaragua and about 12 kilometers south of Granada, a city of about 90,000 inhabitants. Many more people live a few kilometers southeast of Granada in 'las Isletas de Granada and the nearby 'Peninsula de Aseses. These areas are formed of deposits of a large debris avalanche (a fast moving avalanche of rock and debris) from Mombacho. Several smaller towns with population, in the range of 5,000 to 12,000 inhabitants are to the northwest and the southwest of Mombacho volcano. Though the volcano has apparently not been active in historical time, or about the last 500 years, it has the potential to produce landslides and debris flows (watery flows of mud, rock, and debris -- also known as lahars when they occur on a volcano) that could inundate these nearby populated areas. -- Vallance, et.al., 2001

  14. Analysis of volcano rocks by Moessbauer spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitek, J.; Dekan, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this work we have analysed the basalt rock from Mount Ba tur volcano situated on the Island of Bali in Indonesia.We compared our results with composition of basalt rocks from some other places on the Earth. (authors)

  15. Moessbauer Spectroscopy study of Quimsachata Volcano materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez, A.G.B.

    1988-01-01

    It has been studied volcanic lava from Quimsachata Volcano in Pem. Moessbauer Spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, electronic and optical microscopy allowed the identification of different mineralogical phases. (A.C.AS.) [pt

  16. Lahar hazards at Agua volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Vallance, J.W.; Matías, O.; Howell, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    At 3760 m, Agua volcano towers more than 3500 m above the Pacific coastal plain to the south and 2000 m above the Guatemalan highlands to the north. The volcano is within 5 to 10 kilometers (km) of Antigua, Guatemala and several other large towns situated on its northern apron. These towns have a combined population of nearly 100,000. It is within about 20 km of Escuintla (population, ca. 100,000) to the south. Though the volcano has not been active in historical time, or about the last 500 years, it has the potential to produce debris flows (watery flows of mud, rock, and debris—also known as lahars when they occur on a volcano) that could inundate these nearby populated areas.

  17. Hydrometeorological conditions preceding wildfire, and the subsequent burning of a fen watershed in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Matthew C.; Thompson, Dan K.; Sherwood, James H.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2018-01-01

    The destructive nature of the ˜ 590 000 ha Horse river wildfire in the Western Boreal Plain (WBP), northern Alberta, in May of 2016 motivated the investigation of the hydrometeorological conditions that preceded the fire. Historical climate and field hydrometeorological data from a moderate-rich fen watershed were used to (a) identify whether the spring 2016 conditions were outside the range of natural variability for WBP climate cycles, (b) explain the observed patterns in burn severity across the watershed, and (c) identify whether fall and winter moisture signals observed in peatlands and lowland forests in the region are indicative of wildfire. Field hydrometeorological data from the fen watershed confirmed the presence of cumulative moisture deficits prior to the fire. Hydrogeological investigations highlighted the susceptibility of fen and upland areas to water table and soil moisture decline over rain-free periods (including winter), due to the watershed's reliance on supply from localized flow systems originating in topographic highs. Subtle changes in topographic position led to large changes in groundwater connectivity, leading to greater organic soil consumption by fire in wetland margins and at high elevations. The 2016 spring moisture conditions measured prior to the ignition of the fen watershed were not illustrated well by the Drought Code (DC) when standard overwintering procedures were applied. However, close agreement was found when default assumptions were replaced with measured duff soil moisture recharge and incorporated into the overwintering DC procedure. We conclude that accumulated moisture deficits dating back to the summer of 2015 led to the dry conditions that preceded the fire. The infrequent coinciding of several hydrometeorological conditions, including low autumn soil moisture, a modest snowpack, lack of spring precipitation, and high spring air temperatures and winds, ultimately led to the Horse river wildfire spreading widely and

  18. Post-wildfire recovery of water yield in the Sydney Basin water supply catchments: An assessment of the 2001/2002 wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heath, J. T.; Chafer, C. J.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Bishop, T. F. A.

    2014-11-01

    Wildfire is a recurring event which has been acknowledged by the literature to impact the hydrological cycle of a catchment. Hence, wildfire may have a significant impact on water yield levels within a catchment. In Australia, studies of the effect of fire on water yield have been limited to obligate seeder vegetation communities. These communities regenerate from seed banks in the ground or within woody fruits and are generally activated by fire. In contrast, the Sydney Basin is dominated by obligate resprouter communities. These communities regenerate from fire resistant buds found on the plant and are generally found in regions where wildfire is a regular occurrence. The 2001/2002 wildfires in the Sydney Basin provided an opportunity to investigate the impacts of wildfire on water yield in a number of catchments dominated by obligate resprouting communities. The overall aim of this study was to investigate whether there was a difference in water yield post-wildfire. Four burnt subcatchments and 3 control subcatchments were assessed. A general additive model was calibrated using pre-wildfire data and then used to predict post-wildfire water yield using post-wildfire data. The model errors were analysed and it was found that the errors for all subcatchments showed similar trends for the post-wildfire period. This finding demonstrates that wildfires within the Sydney Basin have no significant medium-term impact on water yield.

  19. The Anomalous Winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki Eruption or an Analog of the 2009-2010 Winter to Blame?

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Cook, Edward R.

    2011-01-01

    The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

  20. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  1. Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

    2017-07-01

    Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

  2. On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sales, Fernando; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang; Dintwe, Kebonye

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the impact of wildfire on the climate of Southern Africa. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer derived burned area fraction data was implemented in a set of simulations to assess primarily the role of wildfire-induced surface changes on monthly precipitation. Two post-fire scenarios are examined namely non-recovering and recovering vegetation scenarios. In the former, burned vegetation fraction remains burned until the end of the simulations, whereas in the latter it is allowed to regrow following a recovery period. Control simulations revealed that the model can dependably capture the monthly precipitation and surface temperature averages in Southern Africa thus providing a reasonable basis against which to assess the impacts of wildfire. In general, both wildfire scenarios have a negative impact on springtime precipitation. September and October were the only months with statistically significant precipitation changes. During these months, precipitation in the region decreases by approximately 13 and 9% in the non-recovering vegetation scenario, and by about 10 and 6% in the recovering vegetation wildfire scenario, respectively. The primary cause of precipitation deficit is the decrease in evapotranspiration resulting from a reduction in surface net radiation. Areas impacted by the precipitation reduction includes the Luanda, Kinshasa, and Brazzaville metropolitan areas, The Angolan Highlands, which are the source of the Okavango Rive, and the Okavango Delta region. This study suggests that a probable intensification in wildfire frequency and extent resulting from projected population increase and global warming in Southern Africa could potentially exacerbate the impacts of wildfires in the region's seasonal precipitation.

  3. Repeated wildfires alter forest recovery of mixed-conifer ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens-Rumann, Camille; Morgan, Penelope

    2016-09-01

    Most models project warmer and drier climates that will contribute to larger and more frequent wildfires. However, it remains unknown how repeated wildfires alter post-fire successional patterns and forest structure. Here, we test the hypothesis that the number of wildfires, as well as the order and severity of wildfire events interact to alter forest structure and vegetation recovery and implications for vegetation management. In 2014, we examined forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration in stands that burned 1-18 yr before a subsequent 2007 wildfire. Three important findings emerged: (1) Repeatedly burned forests had 15% less woody surface fuels and 31% lower tree seedling densities compared with forests that only experienced one recent wildfire. These repeatedly burned areas are recovering differently than sites burned once, which may lead to alternative ecosystem structure. (2) Order of burn severity (high followed by low severity compared with low followed by high severity) did influence forest characteristics. When low burn severity followed high, forests had 60% lower canopy closure and total basal area with 92% fewer tree seedlings than when high burn severity followed low. (3) Time between fires had no effect on most variables measured following the second fire except large woody fuels, canopy closure and tree seedling density. We conclude that repeatedly burned areas meet many vegetation management objectives of reduced fuel loads and moderate tree seedling densities. These differences in forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration have implications not only for the trajectories of these forests, but may reduce fire intensity and burn severity of subsequent wildfires and may be used in conjunction with future fire suppression tactics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  5. Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

    KAUST Repository

    Coen, Janice L.

    2010-08-01

    Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP models are capable of modeling very high resolution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows. The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat release, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. These coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available. Yet, intriguing computational science questions arise in applying such models in a predictive manner, including physical processes that span a vast range of scales, processes such as spotting that cannot be modeled deterministically, estimating the consequences of uncertainty, the efforts to steer simulations with field data ("data assimilation"), lingering issues with short term forecasting of weather that may show skill only on the order of a few hours, and the difficulty of gathering pertinent data for verification and initialization in a dangerous environment. © 2010 IEEE.

  6. Real-time estimation of wildfire perimeters from curated crowdsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xu; Duckham, Matt; Chong, Derek; Tolhurst, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Real-time information about the spatial extents of evolving natural disasters, such as wildfire or flood perimeters, can assist both emergency responders and the general public during an emergency. However, authoritative information sources can suffer from bottlenecks and delays, while user-generated social media data usually lacks the necessary structure and trustworthiness for reliable automated processing. This paper describes and evaluates an automated technique for real-time tracking of wildfire perimeters based on publicly available “curated” crowdsourced data about telephone calls to the emergency services. Our technique is based on established data mining tools, and can be adjusted using a small number of intuitive parameters. Experiments using data from the devastating Black Saturday wildfires (2009) in Victoria, Australia, demonstrate the potential for the technique to detect and track wildfire perimeters automatically, in real time, and with moderate accuracy. Accuracy can be further increased through combination with other authoritative demographic and environmental information, such as population density and dynamic wind fields. These results are also independently validated against data from the more recent 2014 Mickleham-Dalrymple wildfires.

  7. Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-04-01

    Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

  8. 50 CFR 35.7 - Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants... MANAGEMENT General Rules § 35.7 Control of wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease. To the extent necessary, the Director shall prescribe measures to control wildfires, insects, pest plants, and disease to...

  9. Incorporating fine-scale drought information into an eastern US wildfire hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson

    2017-01-01

    Wildfires in the eastern United States are generally caused by humans in locations where human development and natural vegetation intermingle, e.g. the wildland–urban interface (WUI). Knowing where wildfire hazards are elevated across the forested landscape may help land managers and property owners plan or allocate resources for potential wildfire threats. In an...

  10. Places where wildfire potential and social vulnerability coincide in the coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel Wigtil; Roger B. Hammer; Jeffrey D. Kline; Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Daniel Roper; Volker C. Radeloff

    2016-01-01

    The hazards-of-place model posits that vulnerability to environmental hazards depends on both biophysical and social factors. Biophysical factors determine where wildfire potential is elevated, whereas social factors determine where and how people are affected by wildfire. We evaluated place vulnerability to wildfire hazards in the coterminous US. We developed...

  11. Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Bachisio Arca; Mark A. Finney; Valentina Bacciu; Pierpaolo Duce; Donatella. Spano

    2012-01-01

    We used simulation modelling to analyze spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social and economic features on the island of Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data and wildfire...

  12. Measuring the efficacy of a wildfire education program in Colorado Springs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.H. Donovan; P.A. Champ; D.T. Butry

    2007-01-01

    We examine an innovative wildfire risk education program in Colorado Springs, which rated the wildfire risk of 35,000 homes in the city's wildland urban interface. Evidence from home sales before and after the program's implementation suggests that the program was successful at changing homebuyers' attitudes toward wildfire risk, particularly preferences...

  13. The evolution of Smokey Bear: Environmental education about wildfire for youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidi L. Ballard; Emily Evans; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Pamela. Jakes

    2012-01-01

    Many environmental education programs in the United States educate youth about the prevention of wildfire and its role in ecosystems.We reviewed 50 wildfire education programs for youth (WEY) in the U.S. through an Internet search and interviews with program providers. We investigated whether they reflect current wildfire science, environmental education (EE)...

  14. Pathology of wildfire risk: A characterization of social and ecological dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Thomas A Spies; Toddi A Steelman; Cassandra Moseley; Bart R Johnson; John D Bailey; Alan A Ager; Patrick Bourgeron; Susan Charnley; Brandon M Collins; Jeffrey D Kline; Jessica E Leahy; Jeremy S Littell; James DA Millington; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Christine S Olsen; Travis B Paveglio; Christopher I Roos; Michelle M Steen-Adams; Forrest R Stevens; Jelena Vukomanovic; Eric M White; David M. J. S. Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Despite dramatic increases in suppression spending, the risk of life and property loss associated with wildfire has continued to rise in recent decades. Economic losses from wildfires have doubled in the United States and suppression expenses have tripled between 2002 and 2012 compared to the decade prior. Loss of property to wildfire has outpaced efforts to reduce...

  15. Fire regimes approaching historic norms reduce wildfire-facilitated conversion from forest to non-forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan B. Walker; Jonathan D. Coop; Sean A. Parks; Laura Trader

    2018-01-01

    Extensive high-severity wildfires have driven major losses of ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests in the southwestern United States, in some settings catalyzing enduring conversions to nonforested vegetation types. Management interventions to reduce the probability of stand-replacing wildfire have included mechanical fuel treatments, prescribed fire, and wildfire...

  16. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire's impacts on southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems, hydrology, and fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter F. Ffolliott; Cody L. Stropki; Hui Chen; Daniel G. Neary

    2011-01-01

    The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire burned nearly 462,600 acres in north-central Arizona in the summer of 2002. The wildfire damaged or destroyed ecosystem resources and disrupted the hydrologic functioning within the impacted ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a largely mosaic pattern. Impacts of the wildfire on ecosystem resources, factors important to hydrologic...

  17. Avian relationships with wildfire at two dry forest locations with different historical fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh Latif; Jamie Sanderlin; Vicki Saab; William Block; Jonathan Dudley

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire is a key factor influencing bird community composition in western North American forests. We need to understand species and community responses to wildfire and how responses vary regionally to effectively manage dry conifer forests for maintaining biodiversity. We compared avian relationships with wildfire burn severity between two dry forest...

  18. Effects of Volcanoes on the Natural Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouginis-Mark, Peter J.

    2005-01-01

    The primary focus of this project has been on the development of techniques to study the thermal and gas output of volcanoes, and to explore our options for the collection of vegetation and soil data to enable us to assess the impact of this volcanic activity on the environment. We originally selected several volcanoes that have persistent gas emissions and/or magma production. The investigation took an integrated look at the environmental effects of a volcano. Through their persistent activity, basaltic volcanoes such as Kilauea (Hawaii) and Masaya (Nicaragua) contribute significant amounts of sulfur dioxide and other gases to the lower atmosphere. Although primarily local rather than regional in its impact, the continuous nature of these eruptions means that they can have a major impact on the troposphere for years to decades. Since mid-1986, Kilauea has emitted about 2,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide per day, while between 1995 and 2000 Masaya has emotted about 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes per day (Duffel1 et al., 2001; Delmelle et al., 2002; Sutton and Elias, 2002). These emissions have a significant effect on the local environment. The volcanic smog ("vog" ) that is produced affects the health of local residents, impacts the local ecology via acid rain deposition and the generation of acidic soils, and is a concern to local air traffic due to reduced visibility. Much of the work that was conducted under this NASA project was focused on the development of field validation techniques of volcano degassing and thermal output that could then be correlated with satellite observations. In this way, we strove to develop methods by which not only our study volcanoes, but also volcanoes in general worldwide (Wright and Flynn, 2004; Wright et al., 2004). Thus volcanoes could be routinely monitored for their effects on the environment. The selected volcanoes were: Kilauea (Hawaii; 19.425 N, 155.292 W); Masaya (Nicaragua; 11.984 N, 86.161 W); and Pods (Costa Rica; 10.2OoN, 84.233 W).

  19. Volcanoes in the Classroom--an Explosive Learning Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Susan A.; Thompson, Keith S.

    1996-01-01

    Presents a unit on volcanoes for third- and fourth-grade students. Includes demonstrations; video presentations; building a volcano model; and inviting a scientist, preferably a vulcanologist, to share his or her expertise with students. (JRH)

  20. Volcanostratigraphic Approach for Evaluation of Geothermal Potential in Galunggung Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadhan, Q. S.; Sianipar, J. Y.; Pratopo, A. K.

    2016-09-01

    he geothermal systems in Indonesia are primarily associated with volcanoes. There are over 100 volcanoes located on Sumatra, Java, and in the eastern part of Indonesia. Volcanostratigraphy is one of the methods that is used in the early stage for the exploration of volcanic geothermal system to identify the characteristics of the volcano. The stratigraphy of Galunggung Volcano is identified based on 1:100.000 scale topographic map of Tasikmalaya sheet, 1:50.000 scale topographic map and also geological map. The schematic flowchart for evaluation of geothermal exploration is used to interpret and evaluate geothermal potential in volcanic regions. Volcanostratigraphy study has been done on Galunggung Volcano and Talaga Bodas Volcano, West Java, Indonesia. Based on the interpretation of topographic map and analysis of the dimension, rock composition, age and stress regime, we conclude that both Galunggung Volcano and Talaga Bodas Volcano have a geothermal resource potential that deserve further investigation.

  1. Volcano Trial Case on GEP: Systematically processing EO data

    OpenAIRE

    Baumann, Andreas Bruno Graziano

    2017-01-01

    Volcanoes can be found all over the world; on land and below water surface. Even nowadays not all volcanoes are known. About 600 erupted in geologically recent times and about 50-70 volcanoes are currently active. Volcanoes can cause earthquakes; throw out blasts and tephras; release (toxic) gases; lava can flow relatively slow down the slopes; mass movements like debris avalanches, and landslides can cause tsunamis; and fast and hot pyroclastic surge, flows, and lahars can travel fast down ...

  2. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  3. Multivariate statistical analysis of wildfires in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Ricardo; Caramelo, Liliana; Pereira, Mário

    2013-04-01

    Several studies demonstrate that wildfires in Portugal present high temporal and spatial variability as well as cluster behavior (Pereira et al., 2005, 2011). This study aims to contribute to the characterization of the fire regime in Portugal with the multivariate statistical analysis of the time series of number of fires and area burned in Portugal during the 1980 - 2009 period. The data used in the analysis is an extended version of the Rural Fire Portuguese Database (PRFD) (Pereira et al, 2011), provided by the National Forest Authority (Autoridade Florestal Nacional, AFN), the Portuguese Forest Service, which includes information for more than 500,000 fire records. There are many multiple advanced techniques for examining the relationships among multiple time series at the same time (e.g., canonical correlation analysis, principal components analysis, factor analysis, path analysis, multiple analyses of variance, clustering systems). This study compares and discusses the results obtained with these different techniques. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. Pereira, M. G., Malamud, B. D., Trigo, R. M., and Alves, P. I.: The history and characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese rural fire database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3343-3358, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3343-2011, 2011 This work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692, the project FLAIR (PTDC/AAC-AMB/104702/2008) and the EU 7th Framework Program through FUME (contract number 243888).

  4. Investigation of the decline in reported smoking-caused wildfires in the USA from 2000 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas S. Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The number of smoking-caused wildfires has been falling nationwide. In national forests in 2011, smoking-caused wildfires represented only 10% of their 1980 level. No other cause of wildfire has experienced this level of decline. For 12 states, we evaluate the rate of smoking-caused wildfires and find it is a function of weather, other ignitions, the number of adult...

  5. Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan Chen; Barry K. Goodwin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2014-01-01

    In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods....

  6. Volcano Geodesy: Recent developments and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Jose F.; Pepe, Antonio; Poland, Michael; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn

    2017-01-01

    Ascent of magma through Earth's crust is normally associated with, among other effects, ground deformation and gravity changes. Geodesy is thus a valuable tool for monitoring and hazards assessment during volcanic unrest, and it provides valuable data for exploring the geometry and volume of magma plumbing systems. Recent decades have seen an explosion in the quality and quantity of volcano geodetic data. New datasets (some made possible by regional and global scientific initiatives), as well as new analysis methods and modeling practices, have resulted in important changes to our understanding of the geodetic characteristics of active volcanism and magmatic processes, from the scale of individual eruptive vents to global compilations of volcano deformation. Here, we describe some of the recent developments in volcano geodesy, both in terms of data and interpretive tools, and discuss the role of international initiatives in meeting future challenges for the field.

  7. Soil radon response around an active volcano

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segovia, N.; Valdes, C.; Pena, P.; Mena, M.; Tamez, E.

    2001-01-01

    Soil radon behavior related to the volcanic eruptive period 1997-1999 of Popocatepetl volcano has been studied as a function of the volcanic activity. Since the volcano is located 60 km from Mexico City, the risk associated with an explosive eruptive phase is high and an intense surveillance program has been implemented. Previous studies in this particular volcano showed soil radon pulses preceding the initial phase of the eruption. The radon survey was performed with LR-115 track detectors at a shallow depth and the effect of the soil moisture during the rainy season has been observed on the detectors response. In the present state of the volcanic activity the soil radon behavior has shown more stability than in previous eruptive stages

  8. Predicting the Timing and Location of the next Hawaiian Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Joseph; Mattox, Stephen; Kildau, Nicole

    2010-01-01

    The wealth of geologic data on Hawaiian volcanoes makes them ideal for study by middle school students. In this paper the authors use existing data on the age and location of Hawaiian volcanoes to predict the location of the next Hawaiian volcano and when it will begin to grow on the floor of the Pacific Ocean. An inquiry-based lesson is also…

  9. Interdisciplinary studies of eruption at Chaiten Volcano, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Pallister; Jon J. Major; Thomas C. Pierson; Richard P. Hoblitt; Jacob B. Lowenstern; John C. Eichelberger; Lara. Luis; Hugo Moreno; Jorge Munoz; Jonathan M. Castro; Andres Iroume; Andrea Andreoli; Julia Jones; Fred Swanson; Charlie Crisafulli

    2010-01-01

    There was keen interest within the volcanology community when the first large eruption of high-silica rhyolite since that of Alaska's Novarupta volcano in 1912 began on 1 May 2008 at Chaiten volcano, southern Chile, a 3-kilometer-diameter caldera volcano with a prehistoric record of rhyolite eruptions. Vigorous explosions occurred through 8 May 2008, after which...

  10. How Do Volcanoes Affect Human Life? Integrated Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayton, Rebecca; Edwards, Carrie; Sisler, Michelle

    This packet contains a unit on teaching about volcanoes. The following question is addressed: How do volcanoes affect human life? The unit covers approximately three weeks of instruction and strives to present volcanoes in an holistic form. The five subject areas of art, language arts, mathematics, science, and social studies are integrated into…

  11. Living with Volcanoes: Year Eleven Teaching Resource Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Heron, Kiri; Andrews, Jill; Hooks, Stacey; Larnder, Michele; Le Heron, Richard

    2000-01-01

    Presents a unit on volcanoes and experiences with volcanoes that helps students develop geography skills. Focuses on four volcanoes: (1) Rangitoto Island; (2) Lake Pupuke; (3) Mount Smart; and (4) One Tree Hill. Includes an answer sheet and resources to use with the unit. (CMK)

  12. Volcanoes muon imaging using Cherenkov telescopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalano, O.; Del Santo, M.; Mineo, T.; Cusumano, G.; Maccarone, M.C.; Pareschi, G.

    2016-01-01

    A detailed understanding of a volcano inner structure is one of the key-points for the volcanic hazards evaluation. To this aim, in the last decade, geophysical radiography techniques using cosmic muon particles have been proposed. By measuring the differential attenuation of the muon flux as a function of the amount of rock crossed along different directions, it is possible to determine the density distribution of the interior of a volcano. Up to now, a number of experiments have been based on the detection of the muon tracks crossing hodoscopes, made up of scintillators or nuclear emulsion planes. Using telescopes based on the atmospheric Cherenkov imaging technique, we propose a new approach to study the interior of volcanoes detecting of the Cherenkov light produced by relativistic cosmic-ray muons that survive after crossing the volcano. The Cherenkov light produced along the muon path is imaged as a typical annular pattern containing all the essential information to reconstruct particle direction and energy. Our new approach offers the advantage of a negligible background and an improved spatial resolution. To test the feasibility of our new method, we have carried out simulations with a toy-model based on the geometrical parameters of ASTRI SST-2M, i.e. the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope currently under installation onto the Etna volcano. Comparing the results of our simulations with previous experiments based on particle detectors, we gain at least a factor of 10 in sensitivity. The result of this study shows that we resolve an empty cylinder with a radius of about 100 m located inside a volcano in less than 4 days, which implies a limit on the magma velocity of 5 m/h.

  13. Volcanoes muon imaging using Cherenkov telescopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catalano, O. [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Del Santo, M., E-mail: melania@ifc.inaf.it [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Mineo, T.; Cusumano, G.; Maccarone, M.C. [INAF, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica cosmica di Palermo, via U. La Malfa 153, I-90146 Palermo (Italy); Pareschi, G. [INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Via E. Bianchi 46, I-23807, Merate (Italy)

    2016-01-21

    A detailed understanding of a volcano inner structure is one of the key-points for the volcanic hazards evaluation. To this aim, in the last decade, geophysical radiography techniques using cosmic muon particles have been proposed. By measuring the differential attenuation of the muon flux as a function of the amount of rock crossed along different directions, it is possible to determine the density distribution of the interior of a volcano. Up to now, a number of experiments have been based on the detection of the muon tracks crossing hodoscopes, made up of scintillators or nuclear emulsion planes. Using telescopes based on the atmospheric Cherenkov imaging technique, we propose a new approach to study the interior of volcanoes detecting of the Cherenkov light produced by relativistic cosmic-ray muons that survive after crossing the volcano. The Cherenkov light produced along the muon path is imaged as a typical annular pattern containing all the essential information to reconstruct particle direction and energy. Our new approach offers the advantage of a negligible background and an improved spatial resolution. To test the feasibility of our new method, we have carried out simulations with a toy-model based on the geometrical parameters of ASTRI SST-2M, i.e. the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope currently under installation onto the Etna volcano. Comparing the results of our simulations with previous experiments based on particle detectors, we gain at least a factor of 10 in sensitivity. The result of this study shows that we resolve an empty cylinder with a radius of about 100 m located inside a volcano in less than 4 days, which implies a limit on the magma velocity of 5 m/h.

  14. Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael; Lisowski, Michael; Dzurisin, Daniel; Kramer, Rebecca; McLay, Megan; Pauk, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt. Several decades of geodetic data, however, tell a different story. Ground- and space-based deformation studies have identified surface displacements at five of the 13 major Cascade arc volcanoes that lie in the USA (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, South Sister, Medicine Lake, and Lassen volcanic center). No deformation has been detected at five volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Newberry Volcano, Crater Lake, and Mount Shasta), and there are not sufficient data at the remaining three (Glacier Peak, Mount Adams, and Mount Jefferson) for a rigorous assessment. In addition, gravity change has been measured at two of the three locations where surveys have been repeated (Mount St. Helens and Mount Baker show changes, while South Sister does not). Broad deformation patterns associated with heavily forested and ice-clad Cascade volcanoes are generally characterized by low displacement rates, in the range of millimeters to a few centimeters per year, and are overprinted by larger tectonic motions of several centimeters per year. Continuous GPS is therefore the best means of tracking temporal changes in deformation of Cascade volcanoes and also for characterizing tectonic signals so that they may be distinguished from volcanic sources. Better spatial resolution of volcano deformation can be obtained through the use of campaign GPS, semipermanent GPS, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, which leverage the accumulation of displacements over time to improve signal to noise. Deformation source mechanisms in the Cascades are diverse and include magma accumulation and withdrawal, post-emplacement cooling of recent volcanic deposits, magmatic

  15. The origin of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dvorak, John

    2011-01-01

    I first stepped through the doorway of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1976, and I was impressed by what I saw: A dozen people working out of a stone-and-metal building perched at the edge of a high cliff with a spectacular view of a vast volcanic plain. Their primary purpose was to monitor the island's two active volcanoes, Kilauea and Mauna Loa. I joined them, working for six weeks as a volunteer and then, years later, as a staff scientist. That gave me several chances to ask how the observatory had started.

  16. Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Lisowski, Michael; Dzurisin, Daniel; Kramer, Rebecca; McLay, Megan; Pauk, Ben

    2017-08-01

    Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt. Several decades of geodetic data, however, tell a different story. Ground- and space-based deformation studies have identified surface displacements at five of the 13 major Cascade arc volcanoes that lie in the USA (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, South Sister, Medicine Lake, and Lassen volcanic center). No deformation has been detected at five volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Newberry Volcano, Crater Lake, and Mount Shasta), and there are not sufficient data at the remaining three (Glacier Peak, Mount Adams, and Mount Jefferson) for a rigorous assessment. In addition, gravity change has been measured at two of the three locations where surveys have been repeated (Mount St. Helens and Mount Baker show changes, while South Sister does not). Broad deformation patterns associated with heavily forested and ice-clad Cascade volcanoes are generally characterized by low displacement rates, in the range of millimeters to a few centimeters per year, and are overprinted by larger tectonic motions of several centimeters per year. Continuous GPS is therefore the best means of tracking temporal changes in deformation of Cascade volcanoes and also for characterizing tectonic signals so that they may be distinguished from volcanic sources. Better spatial resolution of volcano deformation can be obtained through the use of campaign GPS, semipermanent GPS, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, which leverage the accumulation of displacements over time to improve signal to noise. Deformation source mechanisms in the Cascades are diverse and include magma accumulation and withdrawal, post-emplacement cooling of recent volcanic deposits, magmatic

  17. Volcanology and volcano sedimentology of Sahand region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moine Vaziri, H.; Amine Sobhani, E.

    1977-01-01

    There was no volcano in Precambrian and Mesozoic eras in Iran, but in most place of Iran during the next eras volcanic rocks with green series and Dacites were seen. By the recent survey in Sahand mountain in NW of Iran volcanography, determination of rocks and the age of layers were estimated. The deposits of Precambrian as sediment rocks are also seen in the same area. All of volcanic periods in this place were studied; their extrusive rocks, their petrography and the result of their analytical chemistry were discussed. Finally volcano sedimentology of Sahand mountain were described

  18. The origin of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvorak, John [University of Hawaii' s Institute for Astronomy (United States)

    2011-05-15

    I first stepped through the doorway of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1976, and I was impressed by what I saw: A dozen people working out of a stone-and-metal building perched at the edge of a high cliff with a spectacular view of a vast volcanic plain. Their primary purpose was to monitor the island's two active volcanoes, Kilauea and Mauna Loa. I joined them, working for six weeks as a volunteer and then, years later, as a staff scientist. That gave me several chances to ask how the observatory had started.

  19. Examining Atmospheric and Ecological Drivers of Wildfires, Modeling Wildfire Occurrence in the Southwest United States, and Using Atmospheric Sounding Observations to Verify National Weather Service Spot Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauslar, Nicholas J.

    This dissertation is comprised of three different papers that all pertain to wildland fire applications. The first paper performs a verification analysis on mixing height, transport winds, and Haines Index from National Weather Service spot forecasts across the United States. The final two papers, which are closely related, examine atmospheric and ecological drivers of wildfire for the Southwest Area (SWA) (Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, and Oklahoma panhandle) to better equip operational fire meteorologists and managers to make informed decisions on wildfire potential in this region. The verification analysis here utilizes NWS spot forecasts of mixing height, transport winds and Haines Index from 2009-2013 issued for a location within 50 km of an upper sounding location and valid for the day of the fire event. Mixing height was calculated from the 0000 UTC sounding via the Stull, Holzworth, and Richardson methods. Transport wind speeds were determined by averaging the wind speed through the boundary layer as determined by the three mixing height methods from the 0000 UTC sounding. Haines Index was calculated at low, mid, and high elevation based on the elevation of the sounding and spot forecast locations. Mixing height forecasts exhibited large mean absolute errors and biased towards over forecasting. Forecasts of transport wind speeds and Haines Index outperformed mixing height forecasts with smaller errors relative to their respective means. The rainfall and lightning associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) can vary greatly intra- and inter-annually and has a large impact on wildfire activity across the SWA by igniting or suppressing wildfires. NAM onset thresholds and subsequent dates are determined for the SWA and each Predictive Service Area (PSA), which are sub-regions used by operational fire meteorologists to predict wildfire potential within the SWA, April through September from 1995-2013. Various wildfire activity thresholds using the number

  20. Post-wildfire landscape change and erosional processes from repeat terrestrial lidar in a steep headwater catchment, Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, Stephen B.; Youberg, Ann M.; DeLong, Whitney M.; Murphy, Brendan P.

    2018-01-01

    Flooding and erosion after wildfires present increasing hazard as climate warms, semi-arid lands become drier, population increases, and the urban interface encroaches farther into wildlands. We quantify post-wildfire erosion in a steep, initially unchannelized, 7.5 ha headwater catchment following the 2011 Horseshoe 2 Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona. Using time-lapse cameras, rain gauges, and repeat surveys by terrestrial laser scanner, we quantify the response of a burned landscape to subsequent precipitation events. Repeat surveys provide detailed pre-and post-rainfall measurements of landscape form associated with a range of weather events. The first post-fire precipitation led to sediment delivery equivalent to 0.017 m of erosion from hillslopes and 0.12 m of erosion from colluvial hollows. Volumetrically, 69% of sediment yield was generated from hillslope erosion and 31% was generated from gully channel establishment in colluvial hollows. Processes on hillslopes included erosion by extensive shallow overland flow, formation of rills and gullies, and generation of sediment-laden flows and possibly debris flows. Subsequent smaller rain events caused ongoing hillslope erosion and local deposition and erosion in gullies. Winter freeze-thaw led to soil expansion, likely related to frost-heaving, causing a net centimeter-scale elevation increase across soil-mantled slopes. By characterizing landscape form, the properties of near-surface materials, and measuring both precipitation and landscape change, we can improve our empirical understanding of landscape response to environmental forcing. This detailed approach to studying landscape response to wildfires may be useful in the improvement of predictive models of flood, debris flow and sedimentation hazards used in post-wildfire response assessments and land management, and may help improve process-based models of landscape evolution.

  1. Post-wildfire landscape change and erosional processes from repeat terrestrial lidar in a steep headwater catchment, Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, Stephen B.; Youberg, Ann M.; DeLong, Whitney M.; Murphy, Brendan P.

    2018-01-01

    Flooding and erosion after wildfires present increasing hazard as climate warms, semi-arid lands become drier, population increases, and the urban interface encroaches farther into wildlands. We quantify post-wildfire erosion in a steep, initially unchannelized, 7.5 ha headwater catchment following the 2011 Horseshoe 2 Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona. Using time-lapse cameras, rain gauges, and repeat surveys by terrestrial laser scanner, we quantify the response of a burned landscape to subsequent precipitation events. Repeat surveys provide detailed pre-and post-rainfall measurements of landscape form associated with a range of weather events. The first post-fire precipitation led to sediment delivery equivalent to 0.017 m of erosion from hillslopes and 0.12 m of erosion from colluvial hollows. Volumetrically, 69% of sediment yield was generated from hillslope erosion and 31% was generated from gully channel establishment in colluvial hollows. Processes on hillslopes included erosion by extensive shallow overland flow, formation of rills and gullies, and generation of sediment-laden flows and possibly debris flows. Subsequent smaller rain events caused ongoing hillslope erosion and local deposition and erosion in gullies. Winter freeze-thaw led to soil expansion, likely related to frost-heaving, causing a net centimeter-scale elevation increase across soil-mantled slopes. By characterizing landscape form, the properties of near-surface materials, and measuring both precipitation and landscape change, we can improve our empirical understanding of landscape response to environmental forcing. This detailed approach to studying landscape response to wildfires may be useful in the improvement of predictive models of flood, debris flow and sedimentation hazards used in post-wildfire response assessments and land management, and may help improve process-based models of landscape evolution.

  2. Learning through a Winter's Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  3. Investigating the Impacts of Wildfires on Air Quality in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Singh, H. B.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Clements, C. B.; Gore, W.; Lareau, N.; Quayle, B.; Ryoo, J. M.; Schroeder, W.; Tanaka, T.

    2015-12-01

    Wildfire emissions are an important source of a wide range of trace gases and particles that can impact local, regional and global air quality, climate forcing, biogeochemical cycles and human health. In the western US, wildfires dominate over prescribed fires. However, limited sampling of wildfire emissions means western US emission estimates rely largely on data from prescribed fires, which may not be a suitable proxy for wildfire emissions. Further, interactions of wildfire emissions with urban pollution, commonly the case with California wildfires, are complex and poorly understood. The Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) sampled a variety of Californian wildfire plumes during 2013 and 2014. In addition to wildfire plumes, flights sample upwind, background conditions allowing for an assessment of enhancement ratios of trace gas species (carbon dioxide, methane and ozone). This paper presents airborne measurements of multiple trace constituents downwind of a variety of Californian wildfires, with a focus on the exceptionally large Yosemite Rim wildfire during summer 2013. During its intense burning phases, the Rim wildfire was sampled by AJAX on 29 August as well as by the NASA DC-8, as part of its SEAC4RS mission, on 26 and 27 August. AJAX revisited the wildfire on 10 September when it had reached its smoldering phase. The more extensive payload of the DC-8 helped to bridge key measurements that were not available as part of the AJAX payload (e. g. carbon monoxide). The emission ratios (ER), emission factors (EF) and combustion efficiency are compared with previous wildfire studies. Integration of AJAX data with other available datasets, such as SEAC4RS, Lidar data from the California State University Mobile Atmospheric Profiling System (CSU-MAPS), MODIS/VIIRS Fire Radiative Power (FRP) and surface ozone and meteorology measurements is explored to assess the impacts of wildfires on downwind air quality including the densely populated California central

  4. Recent Inflation of Kilauea Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miklius, A.; Poland, M.; Desmarais, E.; Sutton, A.; Orr, T.; Okubo, P.

    2006-12-01

    Over the last three years, geodetic monitoring networks and satellite radar interferometry have recorded substantial inflation of Kilauea's magma system, while the Pu`u `O`o eruption on the east rift zone has continued unabated. Combined with the approximate doubling of carbon dioxide emission rates at the summit during this period, these observations indicate that the magma supply rate to the volcano has increased. Since late 2003, the summit area has risen over 20 cm, and a 2.5 km-long GPS baseline across the summit area has extended almost half a meter. The center of inflation has been variable, with maximum uplift shifting from an area near the center of the caldera to the southeastern part of the caldera in 2004-2005. In 2006, the locus of inflation shifted again, to the location of the long-term magma reservoir in the southern part of the caldera - the same area that had subsided more than 1.5 meters during the last 23 years of the ongoing eruption. In addition, the southwest rift zone reversed its long-term trend of subsidence and began uplifting in early 2006. The east rift zone has shown slightly accelerated rates of extension, but with a year-long hiatus following the January 2005 south flank aseismic slip event. Inflation rates have varied greatly. Accelerated rates of extension and uplift in early 2005 and 2006 were also associated with increased seismicity. Seismicity occurred not only at inflation centers, but was also triggered on the normal faulting area northwest of the caldera and the strike-slip faulting area in the upper east rift zone. In early 2006, at about the time that we started recording uplift on the southwest rift zone, the rate of earthquakes extending from the summit into the southwest rift zone at least quadrupled. The most recent previous episode of inflation at Kilauea, in 2002, may have resulted from reduced lava- transport capacity, as it was associated with decreased outflow at the eruption site. In contrast, eruption volumes

  5. Managing smoke from wildfires and prescribed burning in southern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan Wain; Graham Mills; Lachlan McCaw; Timothy Brown

    2009-01-01

    In Australia the responsibility for management of forests and other public lands rests largely with state governments, and multiple government agencies may be involved in fire management. Whether resulting from wildfire, fuel reduction, or silvicultural operations, biomass burning often stimulates community concerns about hazards from fine particulates and chemical...

  6. Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson

    2014-01-01

    Managing wildland fire incidents can be fraught with complexity and uncertainty. Myriad human factors can exert significant influence on incident decision making, and can contribute additional uncertainty regarding programmatic evaluations of wildfire management and attainment of policy goals. This article develops a framework within which human sources of uncertainty...

  7. Interaction between a wildfire and the sea-breeze front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah E. Hanley; Philip Cunningham; Scott Goodrick

    2013-01-01

    Florida experiences sea breezes, lake breezes, and bay breezes almost every day during the year, and there are frequently complex interactions between many of these breezes. Given the often-rapid changes in temperature, humidity, and wind speed that accompany these breezes, most wildfires and prescribed fires in Florida are affected in some way by their interaction...

  8. Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

    2015-10-01

    Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Identifying indicators of behavior change: insights from wildfire education programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martha C. Monroe; Shruti Agrawal; Pamela J. Jakes; Linda E. Kruger; Kristen C. Nelson; Victoria Sturtevant

    2013-01-01

    Environmental educators are challenged to document behavior changes, because change rarely depends solely on outcomes of education programs, but on many factors. An analysis of 15 communities in the United States that have increased their preparedness for wildfire allowed us to explore how education programs encouraged individual and community change. Agency-sponsored...

  10. AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostas Kalabokidis; Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Nikos Athanasis; Palaiologos Palaiologou; Christos Vasilakos

    2016-01-01

    We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to...

  11. Just blowing smoke? Residents’ social construction of communication about wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Paveglio; Matthew S. Carroll; James D. Absher; Todd. Norton

    2009-01-01

    This study uses social constructionism as a basis for understanding the effectiveness of communication about wildfire risk between agency officials and wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents. Risk communication literature demonstrates a welldocumented difference in the way land managers and stakeholders conceptualize risk. This is especially true of fire because...

  12. Working with neighborhood organizations to promote wildfire preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Johnson Shiralipour; Martha C. Monroe; Michelle Payton

    2006-01-01

    Several government agencies and other natural resource managers have instituted outreach programs to promote wildfire preparedness in wildland-urban interface (WUI) neighborhoods that complement community-wide efforts. To help these programs become more effective, research was undertaken to gain a better understanding of the role that neighbors and neighborhood...

  13. White-headed woodpecker nesting ecology after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catherine S. Wightman; Victoria A. Saab; Chris Forristal; Kim Mellen-Mclean; Amy Markus

    2010-01-01

    Within forests susceptible to wildfire and insect infestations, land managers need to balance dead tree removal and habitat requirements for wildlife species associated with snags. We used Mahalanobis distance methods to develop predictive models of white-headed woodpecker (Picoides albolarvatus) nesting habitat in postfire ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated...

  14. Conflicting perspectives on spotted owls, wildfire, and forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph L. Ganey; Ho Yi Wan; Samuel A. Cushman; Christina D. Vojta

    2017-01-01

    Evidence of increasing fire extent and severity in the western US in recent decades has raised concern over the effects of fire on threatened species such as the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis Xantus de Vesey), which nests in forests with large trees and high canopy cover that are vulnerable to high-severity wildfire. A dichotomy of views exists on the impact of high-...

  15. Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

    2010-01-01

    Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

  16. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  17. Demographic trends, the wildland-urban interface, and wildfire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger B. Hammer; Susan I. Stewart; Volker C. Radeloff

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we provide an overview of the demographic trends that have impacted and will continue to impact the "wicked" wildfire management problem in the United States, with particular attention to the emergence of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Although population growth has had an impact on the emergence of the WUI, the deconcentration of...

  18. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mark A. Finney

    2015-01-01

    Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the...

  19. The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xianli Wang; Marc-Andre Parisien; Mike D. Flannigan; Sean A. Parks; Kerry R. Anderson; John M. Little; Steve W. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 100 - 04 km2). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily...

  20. Effects of timber harvest following wildfire in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; James K. Agee; Gregory H. Aplet; Dennis P. Dykstra; Russell T. Graham; John F. Lehmkuhl; David S. Pilliod; Donald F. Potts; Robert F. Powers; John D. Stuart

    2009-01-01

    Timber harvest following wildfire leads to different outcomes depending on the biophysical setting of the forest, pattern of burn severity, operational aspects of tree removal, and other management activities. Fire effects range from relatively minor, in which fire burns through the understory and may kill a few trees, to severe, in which fire kills most trees and...

  1. Best management practices for creating a community wildfire protection plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela J. Jakes; Christine Esposito; Sam Burns; Antony S. Cheng; Kristen C. Nelson; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    A community wildfire protection plan (CWPP) is a means of bringing local solutions to wildland fire management. In developing and implementing CWPPs, communities assume a leadership role in reducing wildfi re risk on federal and nonfederal land. In this publication, we identify best management practices for CWPP development and implementation based on the experiences...

  2. Identifying Indicators of Behavior Change: Insights from Wildfire Education Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Martha C.; Agrawal, Shruti; Jakes, Pamela J.; Kruger, Linda E.; Nelson, Kristen C.; Sturtevant, Victoria

    2013-01-01

    Environmental educators are challenged to document behavior changes, because change rarely depends solely on outcomes of education programs, but on many factors. An analysis of 15 communities in the United States that have increased their preparedness for wildfire allowed us to explore how education programs encouraged individual and community…

  3. Growth and degradation of Hawaiian volcanoes: Chapter 3 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clague, David A.; Sherrod, David R.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    The 19 known shield volcanoes of the main Hawaiian Islands—15 now emergent, 3 submerged, and 1 newly born and still submarine—lie at the southeast end of a long-lived hot spot chain. As the Pacific Plate of the Earth’s lithosphere moves slowly northwestward over the Hawaiian hot spot, volcanoes are successively born above it, evolve as they drift away from it, and eventually die and subside beneath the ocean surface.

  4. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  5. The potential of satellite data to study individual wildfire events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benali, Akli; López-Saldana, Gerardo; Russo, Ana; Sá, Ana C. L.; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Nikos, Koutsias; Owen, Price; Pereira, Jose M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires have important social, economic and environmental impacts. In order to minimize their impacts, understand their main drivers and study their dynamics, different approaches have been used. The reconstruction of individual wildfire events is usually done by collection of field data, interviews and by implementing fire spread simulations. All these methods have clear limitations in terms of spatial and temporal coverage, accuracy, subjectivity of the collected information and lack of objective independent validation information. In this sense, remote sensing is a promising tool with the potential to provide relevant information for stakeholders and the research community, by complementing or filling gaps in existing information and providing independent accurate quantitative information. In this work we show the potential of satellite data to provide relevant information regarding the dynamics of individual large wildfire events, filling an important gap in wildfire research. We show how MODIS active-fire data, acquired up to four times per day, and satellite-derived burnt perimeters can be combined to extract relevant information wildfire events by describing the methods involved and presenting results for four regions of the world: Portugal, Greece, SE Australia and California. The information that can be retrieved encompasses the start and end date of a wildfire event and its ignition area. We perform an evaluation of the information retrieved by comparing the satellite-derived parameters with national databases, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both and showing how the former can complement the latter leading to more complete and accurate datasets. We also show how the spatio-temporal distribution of wildfire spread dynamics can be reconstructed using satellite-derived active-fires and how relevant descriptors can be extracted. Applying graph theory to satellite active-fire data, we define the major fire spread paths that yield

  6. Carbonate assimilation at Merapi volcano, Java Indonesia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chadwick, J.P; Troll, V.R; Ginibre,, C.

    2007-01-01

    Recent basaltic andesite lavas from Merapi volcano contain abundant, complexly zoned, plagioclase phenocrysts, analysed here for their petrographic textures, major element composition and Sr isotope composition. Anorthite (An) content in individual crystals can vary by as much as 55 mol% (An40^95...

  7. Probing magma reservoirs to improve volcano forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Hurwitz, Shaul

    2017-01-01

    When it comes to forecasting eruptions, volcano observatories rely mostly on real-time signals from earthquakes, ground deformation, and gas discharge, combined with probabilistic assessments based on past behavior [Sparks and Cashman, 2017]. There is comparatively less reliance on geophysical and petrological understanding of subsurface magma reservoirs.

  8. Biological Studies on a Live Volcano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipko, Stephen J.

    1992-01-01

    Describes scientific research on an Earthwatch expedition to study Arenal, one of the world's most active volcanoes, in north central Costa Rica. The purpose of the two-week project was to monitor and understand the past and ongoing development of a small, geologically young, highly active stratovolcano in a tropical, high-rainfall environment.…

  9. Of volcanoes, saints, trash, and frogs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Astrid Oberborbeck

    , at the same time as political elections and economic hardship. During one year of ethnographic fieldwork volcanoes, saints, trash and frogs were among the nonhuman entities referred to in conversations and engaged with when responding to the changes that trouble the world and everyday life of Arequipans...

  10. Geophysical monitoring of the Purace volcano, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Arcila

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Located in the extreme northwestern part of the Los Coconucos volcanic chain in the Central Cordillera, the Purace is one of Colombia's most active volcanoes. Recent geological studies indicate an eruptive history of mainly explosive behavior which was marked most recently by a minor ash eruption in 1977. Techniques used to forecast the renewal of activity of volcanoes after a long period of quiescence include the monitoring of seismicity and ground deformation near the volcano. As a first approach toward the monitoring of the Purace volcano, Southwest Seismological Observatory (OSSO, located in the city of Cali, set up one seismic station in 1986. Beginning in June 1991, the seismic signals have also been transmitted to the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS at the Volcanological and Seismological Observatory (OVS-UOP, located in the city of Popayan. Two more seismic stations were installed early in 1994 forming a minimum seismic network and a geodetic monitoring program for ground deformation studies was established and conducted by INGEOMINAS.

  11. Muons reveal the interior of volcanoes

    CERN Multimedia

    Francesco Poppi

    2010-01-01

    The MU-RAY project has the very challenging aim of providing a “muon X-ray” of the Vesuvius volcano (Italy) using a detector that records the muons hitting it after traversing the rock structures of the volcano. This technique was used for the first time in 1971 by the Nobel Prize-winner Louis Alvarez, who was searching for unknown burial chambers in the Chephren pyramid.   The location of the muon detector on the slopes of the Vesuvius volcano. Like X-ray scans of the human body, muon radiography allows researchers to obtain an image of the internal structures of the upper levels of volcanoes. Although such an image cannot help to predict ‘when’ an eruption might occur, it can, if combined with other observations, help to foresee ‘how’ it could develop and serves as a powerful tool for the study of geological structures. Muons come from the interaction of cosmic rays with the Earth's atmosphere. They are able to traverse layers of ro...

  12. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  13. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  14. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  15. False Color Image of Volcano Sapas Mons

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    This false-color image shows the volcano Sapas Mons, which is located in the broad equatorial rise called Atla Regio (8 degrees north latitude and 188 degrees east longitude). The area shown is approximately 650 kilometers (404 miles) on a side. Sapas Mons measures about 400 kilometers (248 miles) across and 1.5 kilometers (0.9 mile) high. Its flanks show numerous overlapping lava flows. The dark flows on the lower right are thought to be smoother than the brighter ones near the central part of the volcano. Many of the flows appear to have been erupted along the flanks of the volcano rather than from the summit. This type of flank eruption is common on large volcanoes on Earth, such as the Hawaiian volcanoes. The summit area has two flat-topped mesas, whose smooth tops give a relatively dark appearance in the radar image. Also seen near the summit are groups of pits, some as large as one kilometer (0.6 mile) across. These are thought to have formed when underground chambers of magma were drained through other subsurface tubes and lead to a collapse at the surface. A 20 kilometer-diameter (12-mile diameter) impact crater northeast of the volcano is partially buried by the lava flows. Little was known about Atla Regio prior to Magellan. The new data, acquired in February 1991, show the region to be composed of at least five large volcanoes such as Sapas Mons, which are commonly linked by complex systems of fractures or rift zones. If comparable to similar features on Earth, Atla Regio probably formed when large volumes of molten rock upwelled from areas within the interior of Venus known as'hot spots.' Magellan is a NASA spacecraft mission to map the surface of Venus with imaging radar. The basic scientific instrument is a synthetic aperture radar, or SAR, which can look through the thick clouds perpetually shielding the surface of Venus. Magellan is in orbit around Venus which completes one turn around its axis in 243 Earth days. That period of time, one Venus day

  16. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  17. Mauna Kea volcano's ongoing 18-year swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wech, A.; Thelen, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    Mauna Kea is a large postshield-stage volcano that forms the highest peak on Hawaii Island. The 4,205-meter high volcano erupted most recently between 6,000 and 4,500 years ago and exhibits relatively low rates of seismicity, which are mostly tectonic in origin resulting from lithospheric flexure under the weight of the volcano. Here we identify deep repeating earthquakes occurring beneath the summit of Mauna Kea. These earthquakes, which are not part of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's regional network catalog, were initially detected through a systematic search for coherent seismicity using envelope cross-correlation, and subsequent analysis revealed the presence of a long-term, ongoing swarm. The events have energy concentrated at 2-7 Hz, and can be seen in filtered waveforms dating back to the earliest continuous data from a single station archived at IRIS from November 1999. We use a single-station (3 component) match-filter analysis to create a catalog of the repeating earthquakes for the past 18 years. Using two templates created through phase-weighted stacking of thousands of sta/lta-triggers, we find hundreds of thousands of M1.3-1.6 earthquakes repeating every 7-12 minutes throughout this entire time period, with many smaller events occurring in between. The earthquakes occur at 28-31 km depth directly beneath the summit within a conspicuous gap in seismicity surrounding the flanks of the volcano. Magnitudes and periodicity are remarkably stable long-term, but do exhibit slight variability and occasionally display higher variability on shorter time scales. Network geometry precludes obtaining a reliable focal mechanism, but we interpret the frequency content and hypocenters to infer a volcanic source distinct from the regional tectonic seismicity responding to the load of the island. In this model, the earthquakes may result from the slow, persistent degassing of a relic magma chamber at depth.

  18. Geochemical studies on island arc volcanoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notsu, Kenji

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes advances in three topics of geochemical studies on island arc volcanoes, which I and my colleagues have been investigating. First one is strontium isotope studies of arc volcanic rocks mainly from Japanese island arcs. We have shown that the precise spatial distribution of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio reflects natures of the subduction structure and slab-mantle interaction. Based on the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio of volcanic rocks in the northern Kanto district, where two plates subduct concurrently with different directions, the existence of an aseismic portion of the Philippine Sea plate ahead of the seismic one was suggested. Second one is geochemical monitoring of active arc volcanoes. 3 He/ 4 He ratio of volcanic volatiles was shown to be a good indicator to monitor the behavior of magma: ascent and drain-back of magma result in increase and decrease in the ratio, respectively. In the case of 1986 eruptions of Izu-Oshima volcano, the ratio began to increase two months after big eruptions, reaching the maximum and decreased. Such delayed response is explained in terms of travelling time of magmatic helium from the vent area to the observation site along the underground steam flow. Third one is remote observation of volcanic gas chemistry of arc volcanoes, using an infrared absorption spectroscopy. During Unzen eruptions starting in 1990, absorption features of SO 2 and HCl of volcanic gas were detected from the observation station at 1.3 km distance. This was the first ground-based remote detection of HCl in volcanic gas. In the recent work at Aso volcano, we could identify 5 species (CO, COS, CO 2 , SO 2 and HCl) simultaneously in the volcanic plume spectra. (author)

  19. Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Phil Bowden; April Brough; Joe H. Scott; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Alan Taylor; Jennifer Anderson; Jessica Haas

    2016-01-01

    How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident...

  20. Understanding the Factors that Influence Perceptions of Post-Wildfire Landscape Recovery Across 25 Wildfires in the Northwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, C.; Hall, T. E.; Paveglio, T.; Pickering, M.

    2018-01-01

    Disturbances such as wildfire are important features of forested landscapes. The trajectory of changes following wildfires (often referred to as landscape recovery) continues to be an important research topic among ecologists and wildfire scientists. However, the landscape recovery process also has important social dimensions that may or may not correspond to ecological or biophysical perspectives. Perceptions of landscape recovery may affect people's attitudes and behaviors related to forest and wildfire management. We explored the variables that influence people's perceptions of landscape recovery across 25 fires that occurred in 2011 or 2012 in the United States of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana and that represented a range of fire behavior characteristics and landscape impacts. Residents near each of the 25 fires were randomly selected to receive questionnaires about their experiences with the nearby fire, including perceived impacts and how the landscape had recovered since the fire. People generally perceived landscapes as recovering, even though only one to two years had passed. Regression analysis suggested that perceptions of landscape recovery were positively related to stronger beliefs about the ecological role of fire and negatively related to loss of landscape attachment, concern about erosion, increasing distance from the fire perimeter, and longer lasting fires. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analysis indicated that the above relationships were largely consistent across fires. These findings highlight that perceptions of post-fire landscape recovery are influenced by more than vegetation changes and include emotional and cognitive factors. We discuss the management implications of these findings.

  1. 36 CFR 1002.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... RECREATION § 1002.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating, sledding, innertubing, tobogganing and similar winter sports are prohibited on Presidio Trust roads and in parking areas open to...

  2. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  3. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weekend Warriors expand/collapse Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are ... skiing! Be Mindful of Time Spent in the Sun, Regardless of the Season If possible, ski early ...

  4. Wildfire, wildlands, and people: understanding and preparing for wildfire in the wildland-urban interface - a Forests on the Edge report

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. M. Stein; J. Menakis; M. A. Carr; S. J. Comas; S. I. Stewart; H. Cleveland; L. Bramwell; V. C. Radeloff

    2013-01-01

    Fire has historically played a fundamental ecological role in many of America's wildland areas. However, the rising number of homes in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), associated impacts on lives and property from wildfire, and escalating costs of wildfire management have led to an urgent need for communities to become "fire-adapted." We present maps...

  5. Public Response to Wildfire: Is the Australian "Stay and Defend or Leave Early" Approach an Option for Wildfire Management in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. McCaffrey; Alan Rhodes

    2009-01-01

    In the United States, the increasing costs and negative impacts of wildfires are causing fire managers and policymakers to reexamine traditional approaches to fire management including whether mass evacuation of populations threatened by wildfire is always the most appropriate option. This article examines the Australian "stay and defend or leave early" (SDLE...

  6. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  7. 46 CFR 45.73 - Winter freeboard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Winter freeboard. 45.73 Section 45.73 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) LOAD LINES GREAT LAKES LOAD LINES Freeboards § 45.73 Winter freeboard. The minimum winter freeboard (fw) in inches is obtained by the formula: fw=f(s)+T s...

  8. Space Radar Image of Colombian Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    This is a radar image of a little known volcano in northern Colombia. The image was acquired on orbit 80 of space shuttle Endeavour on April 14, 1994, by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR). The volcano near the center of the image is located at 5.6 degrees north latitude, 75.0 degrees west longitude, about 100 kilometers (65 miles) southeast of Medellin, Colombia. The conspicuous dark spot is a lake at the bottom of an approximately 3-kilometer-wide (1.9-mile) volcanic collapse depression or caldera. A cone-shaped peak on the bottom left (northeast rim) of the caldera appears to have been the source for a flow of material into the caldera. This is the northern-most known volcano in South America and because of its youthful appearance, should be considered dormant rather than extinct. The volcano's existence confirms a fracture zone proposed in 1985 as the northern boundary of volcanism in the Andes. The SIR-C/X-SAR image reveals another, older caldera further south in Colombia, along another proposed fracture zone. Although relatively conspicuous, these volcanoes have escaped widespread recognition because of frequent cloud cover that hinders remote sensing imaging in visible wavelengths. Four separate volcanoes in the Northern Andes nations ofColombia and Ecuador have been active during the last 10 years, killing more than 25,000 people, including scientists who were monitoring the volcanic activity. Detection and monitoring of volcanoes from space provides a safe way to investigate volcanism. The recognition of previously unknown volcanoes is important for hazard evaluations because a number of major eruptions this century have occurred at mountains that were not previously recognized as volcanoes. Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C and X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of

  9. Common processes at unique volcanoes – a volcanological conundrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharine eCashman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available An emerging challenge in modern volcanology is the apparent contradiction between the perception that every volcano is unique, and classification systems based on commonalities among volcano morphology and eruptive style. On the one hand, detailed studies of individual volcanoes show that a single volcano often exhibits similar patterns of behaviour over multiple eruptive episodes; this observation has led to the idea that each volcano has its own distinctive pattern of behaviour (or personality. In contrast, volcano classification schemes define eruption styles referenced to type volcanoes (e.g. Plinian, Strombolian, Vulcanian; this approach implicitly assumes that common processes underpin volcanic activity and can be used to predict the nature, extent and ensuing hazards of individual volcanoes. Actual volcanic eruptions, however, often include multiple styles, and type volcanoes may experience atypical eruptions (e.g., violent explosive eruptions of Kilauea, Hawaii1. The volcanological community is thus left with a fundamental conundrum that pits the uniqueness of individual volcanic systems against generalization of common processes. Addressing this challenge represents a major challenge to volcano research.

  10. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  11. Continuous monitoring of volcanoes with borehole strainmeters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn

    Monitoring of volcanoes using various physical techniques has the potential to provide important information about the shape, size and location of the underlying magma bodies. Volcanoes erupt when the pressure in a magma chamber some kilometers below the surface overcomes the strength of the intervening rock, resulting in detectable deformations of the surrounding crust. Seismic activity may accompany and precede eruptions and, from the patterns of earthquake locations, inferences may be made about the location of magma and its movement. Ground deformation near volcanoes provides more direct evidence on these, but continuous monitoring of such deformation is necessary for all the important aspects of an eruption to be recorded. Sacks-Evertson borehole strainmeters have recorded strain changes associated with eruptions of Hekla, Iceland and Izu-Oshima, Japan. Those data have made possible well-constrained models of the geometry of the magma reservoirs and of the changes in their geometry during the eruption. The Hekla eruption produced clear changes in strain at the nearest instrument (15 km from the volcano) starting about 30 minutes before the surface breakout. The borehole instrument on Oshima showed an unequivocal increase in the amplitude of the solid earth tides beginning some years before the eruption. Deformational changes, detected by a borehole strainmeter and a very long baseline tiltmeter, and corresponding to the remote triggered seismicity at Long Valley, California in the several days immediately following the Landers earthquake are indicative of pressure changes in the magma body under Long Valley, raising the question of whether such transients are of more general importance in the eruption process. We extrapolate the experience with borehole strainmeters to estimate what could be learned from an installation of a small network of such instruments on Mauna Loa. Since the process of conduit formation from the magma sources in Mauna Loa and other

  12. Integrating wildfire plume rises within atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallia, D. V.; Kochanski, A.; Wu, D.; Urbanski, S. P.; Krueger, S. K.; Lin, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires can generate significant pyro-convection that is responsible for releasing pollutants, greenhouse gases, and trace species into the free troposphere, which are then transported a significant distance downwind from the fire. Oftentimes, atmospheric transport and chemistry models have a difficult time resolving the transport of smoke from these wildfires, primarily due to deficiencies in estimating the plume injection height, which has been highlighted in previous work as the most important aspect of simulating wildfire plume transport. As a result of the uncertainties associated with modeled wildfire plume rise, researchers face difficulties modeling the impacts of wildfire smoke on air quality and constraining fire emissions using inverse modeling techniques. Currently, several plume rise parameterizations exist that are able to determine the injection height of fire emissions; however, the success of these parameterizations has been mixed. With the advent of WRF-SFIRE, the wildfire plume rise and injection height can now be explicitly calculated using a fire spread model (SFIRE) that is dynamically linked with the atmosphere simulated by WRF. However, this model has only been tested on a limited basis due to computational costs. Here, we will test the performance of WRF-SFIRE in addition to several commonly adopted plume parameterizations (Freitas, Sofiev, and Briggs) for the 2013 Patch Springs (Utah) and 2012 Baker Canyon (Washington) fires, for both of which observations of plume rise heights are available. These plume rise techniques will then be incorporated within a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model (STILT) in order to simulate CO and CO2 concentrations during NASA's CARVE Earth Science Airborne Program over Alaska during the summer of 2012. Initial model results showed that STILT model simulations were unable to reproduce enhanced CO concentrations produced by Alaskan fires observed during 2012. Near-surface concentrations were drastically

  13. Darwin's triggering mechanism of volcano eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    Charles Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…' and ‘…a power, I may remark, which acts in paroxysmal upheavals like that of Concepcion, and in great volcanic eruptions,…'. Darwin reports that ‘…several of the great chimneys in the Cordillera of central Chile commenced a fresh period of activity ….' In particular, Darwin reported on four-simultaneous large eruptions from the following volcanoes: Robinson Crusoe, Minchinmavida, Cerro Yanteles and Peteroa (we cite the Darwin's sentences following his The Voyage of the Beagle and researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). Let us consider these eruptions taking into account the volcano shape and the conduit. Three of the volcanoes (Minchinmavida (2404 m), Cerro Yanteles (2050 m), and Peteroa (3603 m)) are stratovolcanos and are formed of symmetrical cones with steep sides. Robinson Crusoe (922 m) is a shield volcano and is formed of a cone with gently sloping sides. They are not very active. We may surmise, that their vents had a sealing plug (vent fill) in 1835. All these volcanoes are conical. These common features are important for Darwin's triggering model, which is discussed below. The vent fill material, usually, has high level of porosity and a very low tensile strength and can easily be fragmented by tension waves. The action of a severe earthquake on the volcano base may be compared with a nuclear blast explosion of the base. It is known, that after a underground nuclear explosion the vertical motion and the surface fractures in a tope of mountains were observed. The same is related to the propagation of waves in conical elements. After the explosive load of the base. the tip may break and fly off at high velocity. Analogous phenomenon may be generated as a result of a

  14. Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.

    2016-12-01

    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.

  15. Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurteau, Matthew D; Liang, Shuang; Martin, Katherine L; North, Malcolm P; Koch, George W; Hungate, Bruce A

    2016-03-01

    Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three treatments (control, thin-only, and thin and burn) with and without the occurrence of wildfire. We evaluated how two different probabilities of wildfire occurrence, 1% and 2% per year, might alter the carbon balance of treatments. In the absence of wildfire, we found that thinning and burning treatments initially reduced total ecosystem carbon (TEC) and increased net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). In the presence of wildfire, the thin and burn treatment TEC surpassed that of the control in year 40 at 2%/yr wildfire probability, and in year 51 at 1%/yr wildfire probability. NECB in the presence of wildfire showed a similar response to the no-wildfire scenarios: both thin-only and thin and burn treatments increased the C sink. Treatments increased TEC by reducing both mean wildfire severity and its variability. While the carbon balance of treatments may differ in more productive forest types, the carbon balance benefits from restoring forest structure and fire in southwestern ponderosa pine forests are clear.

  16. Evaluating Alternative Prescribed Burning Policies to Reduce Net Economic Damages from Wildfire

    OpenAIRE

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; John M. Pye

    2007-01-01

    We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on wildfire intensity may underestimate optimal rates of prescribed burning. Our estimated supply function for prescribed fire services ...

  17. Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Moore, Paul A.; Lukenbach, Maxwell C.; Waddington, James M.

    2016-06-01

    Northern peatlands can emit large amounts of carbon and harmful smoke pollution during a wildfire. Of particular concern are drained and mined peatlands, where management practices destabilize an array of ecohydrological feedbacks, moss traits and peat properties that moderate water and carbon losses in natural peatlands. Our results demonstrate that drained and mined peatlands in Canada and northern Europe can experience catastrophic deep burns (>200 t C ha-1 emitted) under current weather conditions. Furthermore, climate change will cause greater water losses in these peatlands and subject even deeper peat layers to wildfire combustion. However, the rewetting of drained peatlands and the restoration of mined peatlands can effectively lower the risk of these deep burns, especially if a new peat moss layer successfully establishes and raises peat moisture content. We argue that restoration efforts are a necessary measure to mitigate the risk of carbon loss in managed peatlands under climate change.

  18. Silicic magma generation at Askja volcano, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmarsson, O.

    2009-04-01

    Rate of magma differentiation is an important parameter for hazard assessment at active volcanoes. However, estimates of these rates depend on proper understanding of the underlying magmatic processes and magma generation. Differences in isotope ratios of O, Th and B between silicic and in contemporaneous basaltic magmas have been used to emphasize their origin by partial melting of hydrothermally altered metabasaltic crust in the rift-zones favoured by a strong geothermal gradient. An alternative model for the origin of silicic magmas in the Iceland has been proposed based on U-series results. Young mantle-derived mafic protolith is thought to be metasomatized and partially melted to form the silicic end-member. However, this model underestimates the compositional variations of the hydrothermally-altered basaltic crust. New data on U-Th disequilibria and O-isotopes in basalts and dacites from Askja volcano reveal a strong correlation between (230Th/232Th) and delta 18O. The 1875 AD dacite has the lowest Th- and O isotope ratios (0.94 and -0.24 per mille, respectively) whereas tephra of evolved basaltic composition, erupted 2 months earlier, has significantly higher values (1.03 and 2.8 per mille, respectively). Highest values are observed in the most recent basalts (erupted in 1920 and 1961) inside the Askja caldera complex and out on the associated fissure swarm (Sveinagja basalt). This correlation also holds for older magma such as an early Holocene dacites, which eruption may have been provoked by rapid glacier thinning. Silicic magmas at Askja volcano thus bear geochemical signatures that are best explained by partial melting of extensively hydrothermally altered crust and that the silicic magma source has remained constant during the Holocene at least. Once these silicic magmas are formed they appear to erupt rapidly rather than mixing and mingling with the incoming basalt heat-source that explains lack of icelandites and the bi-modal volcanism at Askja

  19. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  20. A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    represents the local fire templates. The ‘paradigm’ part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray - the ‘fire-particles’ - which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time...... and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread....

  1. Improving Air Support for Wildfire Management in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    27. 20“ Fire Improvements Needed,” 15. 21“Fire Improvements Needed,” 16. In British Columbia, Canadian wildfire pilots complete after action...Listed in the crash report, the primary cause of the mishap was poor communication of changing weather conditions and pilot error. Reduced crew...through swapping in fresh crews; the station fire would have had continuous aviation coverage. Experienced with multitasking and high workloads in the

  2. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meg A Krawchuk

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade. We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research

  3. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawchuk, Meg A; Moritz, Max A; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global

  4. AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

    2016-03-01

    We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also

  5. Biophysical Interactions within Step-Pool Mountain Streams Following Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, A.; Chin, A.; O'Dowd, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Recovery of riverine ecosystems following disturbance is driven by a variety of interacting processes. Wildfires pose increasing disturbances to riverine landscapes, with rising frequencies and magnitudes owing to warming climates and increased fuel loads. The effects of wildfire include loss of vegetation, elevated runoff and flash floods, erosion and deposition, and changing biological habitats and communities. Understanding process interactions in post-fire landscapes is increasingly urgent for successful management and restoration of affected ecosystems. In steep channels, steps and pools provide prominent habitats for organisms and structural integrity in high energy environments. Step-pools are typically stable, responding to extreme events with recurrence intervals often exceeding 50 years. Once wildfire occurs, however, intensification of post-fire flood events can potentially overpower the inherent stability of these systems, with significant consequences for aquatic life and human well-being downstream. This study examined the short-term response of step-pool streams following the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We explored interacting feedbacks among geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology in the post-fire environment. At selected sites with varying burn severity, we established baseline conditions immediately after the fire with channel surveys, biological assessment using benthic macroinvertebrates, sediment analysis including pebble counts, and precipitation gauging. Repeat measurements after major storm events over several years enabled analysis of the interacting feedbacks among post-fire processes. We found that channels able to retain the step-pool structure changed less and facilitated recovery more readily. Step habitats maintained higher percentages of sensitive macroinvertebrate taxa compared to pools through post-fire floods. Sites burned with high severity experienced greater reduction in the percentage of sensitive taxa. The decimation of

  6. Geothermal Exploration of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waibel, Albert F. [Columbia Geoscience, Pasco, WA (United States); Frone, Zachary S. [Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX (United States); Blackwell, David D. [Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas, TX (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Davenport Newberry (Davenport) has completed 8 years of exploration for geothermal energy on Newberry Volcano in central Oregon. Two deep exploration test wells were drilled by Davenport on the west flank of the volcano, one intersected a hydrothermal system; the other intersected isolated fractures with no hydrothermal interconnection. Both holes have bottom-hole temperatures near or above 315°C (600°F). Subsequent to deep test drilling an expanded exploration and evaluation program was initiated. These efforts have included reprocessing existing data, executing multiple geological, geophysical, geochemical programs, deep exploration test well drilling and shallow well drilling. The efforts over the last three years have been made possible through a DOE Innovative Exploration Technology (IET) Grant 109, designed to facilitate innovative geothermal exploration techniques. The combined results of the last 8 years have led to a better understanding of the history and complexity of Newberry Volcano and improved the design and interpretation of geophysical exploration techniques with regard to blind geothermal resources in volcanic terrain.

  7. Electrical structure of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitterman, D.V.; Stanley, W.D.; Bisdorf, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    From the interpretation of magnetotelluric, transient electromagnetic, and Schlumberger resistivity soundings, the electrical structure of Newberry Volcano in central Oregon is found to consist of four units. From the surface downward, the geoelectrical units are 1) very resistive, young, unaltered volcanic rock, (2) a conductive layer of older volcanic material composed of altered tuffs, 3) a thick resistive layer thought to be in part intrusive rocks, and 4) a lower-crustal conductor. This model is similar to the regional geoelectrical structure found throughout the Cascade Range. Inside the caldera, the conductive second layer corresponds to the steep temperature gradient and alteration minerals observed in the USGS Newberry 2 test-hole. Drill hole information on the south and north flanks of the volcano (test holes GEO N-1 and GEO N-3, respectively) indicates that outside the caldera the conductor is due to alteration minerals (primarily smectite) and not high-temperature pore fluids. On the flanks of Newberry the conductor is generally deeper than inside the caldera, and it deepens with distance from the summit. A notable exception to this pattern is seen just west of the caldera rim, where the conductive zone is shallower than at other flank locations. The volcano sits atop a rise in the resistive layer, interpreted to be due to intrusive rocks. -from Authors

  8. Monitoring active volcanoes: The geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Ohba

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    The geochemical surveillance of an active volcano aims to recognize possible signals that are related to changes in volcanic activity. Indeed, as a consequence of the magma rising inside the volcanic "plumbing system" and/or the refilling with new batches of magma, the dissolved volatiles in the magma are progressively released as a function of their relative solubilities. When approaching the surface, these fluids that are discharged during magma degassing can interact with shallow aquifers and/or can be released along the main volcano-tectonic structures. Under these conditions, the following main degassing processes represent strategic sites to be monitored.

    The main purpose of this special volume is to collect papers that cover a wide range of topics in volcanic fluid geochemistry, which include geochemical characterization and geochemical monitoring of active volcanoes using different techniques and at different sites. Moreover, part of this volume has been dedicated to the new geochemistry tools.

  9. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2013-12-01

    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  10. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  11. New Developments in Wildfire Pollution Forecasting at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Munoz-Alpizar, Rodrigo; Davignon, Didier; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Landry, Hugo; Menard, Sylvain; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Environment and Climate Change Canada's air quality forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions, named FireWork, was developed in 2012 and has been run by the Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations division (CMCO) since 2013. In June 2016 this system was upgraded to operational status and wildfire smoke forecasts for North America are now available to the general public. FireWork's ability to model the transport and diffusion of wildfire smoke plumes has proved to be valuable to regional air quality forecasters and emergency first responders. Some of the most challenging issues with wildfire pollution modelling concern the production of wildfire emission estimates and near-source dispersion within the air quality model. As a consequence, FireWork is undergoing constant development. During the massive Fort McMurray wildfire event in western Canada in May 2016, for example, different wildfire emissions processing approaches and wildfire emissions injection and dispersion schemes were tested within the air quality model. Work on various FireWork components will continue in order to deliver a new operational version of the forecasting system for the 2017 wildfire season. Some of the proposed improvements will be shown in this presentation along with current and planned FireWork post-processing products.

  12. The application of prototype point processes for the summary and description of California wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, K.; Schoenberg, F.P.; Keeley, J.E.; Bray, A.; Diez, D.

    2011-01-01

    A method for summarizing repeated realizations of a space-time marked point process, known as prototyping, is discussed and applied to catalogues of wildfires in California. Prototype summaries are constructed for varying time intervals using California wildfire data from 1990 to 2006. Previous work on prototypes for temporal and space-time point processes is extended here to include methods for computing prototypes with marks and the incorporation of prototype summaries into hierarchical clustering algorithms, the latter of which is used to delineate fire seasons in California. Other results include summaries of patterns in the spatial-temporal distribution of wildfires within each wildfire season. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. García-Ortega

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Iberian Peninsula presents the highest number of wildfires in Europe. In the NW of Spain in particular, wildfires are the natural risk with the greatest economic impact in this region. Wildfires caused by lightning are closely related to the triggering of convective phenomena. The prediction of thunderstorms is a very complex task because these weather events have a local character and are highly dependent on mesoscale atmospheric conditions. The development of convective storms is directly linked to the existence of a synoptic environment favoring convection. The aim of this study is to classify the atmospheric patterns that provide favorable environments for the occurrence of wildfires caused by lightning in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain. The database used for the study contains 376 wildfire days from the period 1987–2006. NCEP data reanalysis has been used. The atmospheric fields used to characterise each day were: geopotential heights and temperatures at 500 hPa and 850 hPa, relative humidity and the horizontal wind at 850 hPa. A Principal Component Analysis in T-mode followed by a Cluster Analysis resulted in a classification of wildfire days into five clusters. The characteristics of these clusters were analysed and described, focusing particularly on the study of those wildfire days in which more than one wildfire was detected. In these cases the main feature observed was the intensification of the disturbance typical of the cluster to which the wildfire belongs.

  14. Nanoscale volcanoes: accretion of matter at ion-sculpted nanopores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Toshiyuki; Stein, Derek; Kim, Young-Rok; Hoogerheide, David; Golovchenko, J A

    2006-01-27

    We demonstrate the formation of nanoscale volcano-like structures induced by ion-beam irradiation of nanoscale pores in freestanding silicon nitride membranes. Accreted matter is delivered to the volcanoes from micrometer distances along the surface. Volcano formation accompanies nanopore shrinking and depends on geometrical factors and the presence of a conducting layer on the membrane's back surface. We argue that surface electric fields play an important role in accounting for the experimental observations.

  15. Forecasting wind-driven wildfires using an inverse modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Rios

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A technology able to rapidly forecast wildfire dynamics would lead to a paradigm shift in the response to emergencies, providing the Fire Service with essential information about the ongoing fire. This paper presents and explores a novel methodology to forecast wildfire dynamics in wind-driven conditions, using real-time data assimilation and inverse modelling. The forecasting algorithm combines Rothermel's rate of spread theory with a perimeter expansion model based on Huygens principle and solves the optimisation problem with a tangent linear approach and forward automatic differentiation. Its potential is investigated using synthetic data and evaluated in different wildfire scenarios. The results show the capacity of the method to quickly predict the location of the fire front with a positive lead time (ahead of the event in the order of 10 min for a spatial scale of 100 m. The greatest strengths of our method are lightness, speed and flexibility. We specifically tailor the forecast to be efficient and computationally cheap so it can be used in mobile systems for field deployment and operativeness. Thus, we put emphasis on producing a positive lead time and the means to maximise it.

  16. Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, A.; Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to

  17. Efficient inversion of volcano deformation based on finite element models : An application to Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charco, María; González, Pablo J.; Galán del Sastre, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The Kilauea volcano (Hawaii, USA) is one of the most active volcanoes world-wide and therefore one of the better monitored volcanoes around the world. Its complex system provides a unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of magma transport and supply. Geodetic techniques, as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) are being extensively used to monitor ground deformation at volcanic areas. The quantitative interpretation of such surface ground deformation measurements using geodetic data requires both, physical modelling to simulate the observed signals and inversion approaches to estimate the magmatic source parameters. Here, we use synthetic aperture radar data from Sentinel-1 radar interferometry satellite mission to image volcano deformation sources during the inflation along Kilauea's Southwest Rift Zone in April-May 2015. We propose a Finite Element Model (FEM) for the calculation of Green functions in a mechanically heterogeneous domain. The key aspect of the methodology lies in applying the reciprocity relationship of the Green functions between the station and the source for efficient numerical inversions. The search for the best-fitting magmatic (point) source(s) is generally conducted for an array of 3-D locations extending below a predefined volume region. However, our approach allows to reduce the total number of Green functions to the number of the observation points by using the, above mentioned, reciprocity relationship. This new methodology is able to accurately represent magmatic processes using physical models capable of simulating volcano deformation in non-uniform material properties distribution domains, which eventually will lead to better description of the status of the volcano.

  18. Geologic map of Medicine Lake volcano, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.

    2011-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano forms a broad, seemingly nondescript highland, as viewed from any angle on the ground. Seen from an airplane, however, treeless lava flows are scattered across the surface of this potentially active volcanic edifice. Lavas of Medicine Lake volcano, which range in composition from basalt through rhyolite, cover more than 2,000 km2 east of the main axis of the Cascade Range in northern California. Across the Cascade Range axis to the west-southwest is Mount Shasta, its towering volcanic neighbor, whose stratocone shape contrasts with the broad shield shape of Medicine Lake volcano. Hidden in the center of Medicine Lake volcano is a 7 km by 12 km summit caldera in which nestles its namesake, Medicine Lake. The flanks of Medicine Lake volcano, which are dotted with cinder cones, slope gently upward to the caldera rim, which reaches an elevation of nearly 8,000 ft (2,440 m). The maximum extent of lavas from this half-million-year-old volcano is about 80 km north-south by 45 km east-west. In postglacial time, 17 eruptions have added approximately 7.5 km3 to its total estimated volume of 600 km3, and it is considered to be the largest by volume among volcanoes of the Cascades arc. The volcano has erupted nine times in the past 5,200 years, a rate more frequent than has been documented at all other Cascades arc volcanoes except Mount St. Helens.

  19. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  20. Volcano-Monitoring Instrumentation in the United States, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Diefenbach, Angela K.; Ewert, John W.; Ramsey, David W.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Schilling, Steven P.

    2010-01-01

    The United States is one of the most volcanically active countries in the world. According to the global volcanism database of the Smithsonian Institution, the United States (including its Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) is home to about 170 volcanoes that are in an eruptive phase, have erupted in historical time, or have not erupted recently but are young enough (eruptions within the past 10,000 years) to be capable of reawakening. From 1980 through 2008, 30 of these volcanoes erupted, several repeatedly. Volcano monitoring in the United States is carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program, which operates a system of five volcano observatories-Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO). The observatories issue public alerts about conditions and hazards at U.S. volcanoes in support of the USGS mandate under P.L. 93-288 (Stafford Act) to provide timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters to the affected populace and civil authorities. To make efficient use of the Nation's scientific resources, the volcano observatories operate in partnership with universities and other governmental agencies through various formal agreements. The Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (CUSVO) was established in 2001 to promote scientific cooperation among the Federal, academic, and State agencies involved in observatory operations. Other groups also contribute to volcano monitoring by sponsoring long-term installation of geophysical instruments at some volcanoes for specific research projects. This report describes a database of information about permanently installed ground-based instruments used by the U.S. volcano observatories to monitor volcanic activity (unrest and eruptions). The purposes of this Volcano-Monitoring Instrumentation Database (VMID) are to (1) document the Nation's existing

  1. Data assimilation strategies for volcano geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yan; Gregg, Patricia M.

    2017-09-01

    Ground deformation observed using near-real time geodetic methods, such as InSAR and GPS, can provide critical information about the evolution of a magma chamber prior to volcanic eruption. Rapid advancement in numerical modeling capabilities has resulted in a number of finite element models targeted at better understanding the connection between surface uplift associated with magma chamber pressurization and the potential for volcanic eruption. Robust model-data fusion techniques are necessary to take full advantage of the numerical models and the volcano monitoring observations currently available. In this study, we develop a 3D data assimilation framework using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach in order to combine geodetic observations of surface deformation with geodynamic models to investigate volcanic unrest. The EnKF sequential assimilation method utilizes disparate data sets as they become available to update geodynamic models of magma reservoir evolution. While the EnKF has been widely applied in hydrologic and climate modeling, the adaptation for volcano monitoring is in its initial stages. As such, our investigation focuses on conducting a series of sensitivity tests to optimize the EnKF for volcano applications and on developing specific strategies for assimilation of geodetic data. Our numerical experiments illustrate that the EnKF is able to adapt well to the spatial limitations posed by GPS data and the temporal limitations of InSAR, and that specific strategies can be adopted to enhance EnKF performance to improve model forecasts. Specifically, our numerical experiments indicate that: (1) incorporating additional iterations of the EnKF analysis step is more efficient than increasing the number of ensemble members; (2) the accuracy of the EnKF results are not affected by initial parameter assumptions; (3) GPS observations near the center of uplift improve the quality of model forecasts; (4) occasionally shifting continuous GPS stations to

  2. Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

    2017-01-01

    Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human

  3. Unmanned Aerial Technologies for Observations at Active Volcanoes: Advances and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, D. C.; Diaz, J. A.; Bland, G.; Fladeland, M.; Makel, D.; Schwandner, F. M.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Elston, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Modern application of unmanned aerial systems' (UASs) technology allow us to conduct in situ measurements in volcanic plumes and drifting volcanic clouds that were impossible to make in the past. Thus, we are now able to explore proximal airspace near and within eruption columns and or other active vents, at very high and at very low altitudes—risk to human investigators is vastly reduced (although not eliminated). We are now on the cusp of being able to make in situ measurements and conduct sampling at altitudes of 5000-6000 meters relatively routinely. We also are developing heat tolerant electronics and sensors that will deployed on, around, and over active lava lakes and lava flows at terrestrial volcanoes, but with a view toward developing planetary applications, for instance on the surface of Venus. We report on our 2012-present systematic UAS-based observations of light gases (e.g., SO2 CO2, H2S) at Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica, at Italian volcanic sites (e.g., Isole Vulcano; La Solfatara), and most recently at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii in collaboration with USGS and NPS colleagues. Other deployments for Fall 2017 and Winter 2018 are in planning stages for the Salton Sea Basin and Costa Rica, which will include an airborne miniature mass spectrometer onboard several different types of UAVs. In addition, under development is the first purpose-built-for-volcanology small unmanned aircraft. We discuss strategies for acquiring airborne data from proximal ash/gas plumes during restless periods and during eruptions, from distal drifting ash/gas clouds from eruptions, and from diffuse emissions (e.g., CO2) at very low altitudes, utilizing UASs (e.g., fixed wing, multi-rotor, aerostat), especially regarding inputs for source flux reverse models. This work was carried out, in part, at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology under contract to NASA.

  4. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Multimedia

    Corinne Pralavorio

    2016-01-01

    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  5. Forecasting European Wildfires Today and in the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Abellan, Maria; Porras Alegre, Ignasi; María Sole, Josep; Gálvez, Pedro; Bielski, Conrad; Nurmi, Pertti

    2017-04-01

    Society as a whole is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. The increased frequency of wildfires is not only a result of a changing climate, but wildfires themselves also produce a significant amount of greenhouse gases that, in-turn, further contribute to global warming. I-REACT (Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies) is an innovation project funded by the European Commission , which aims to use social media, smartphones and wearables to improve natural disaster management by integrating existing services, both local and European, into a platform that supports the entire emergency management cycle. In order to assess the impact of climate change on wildfire hazards, METEOSIM designed two different System Processes (SP) that will be integrated into the I-REACT service that can provide information on a variety of time scales. SP1 - Climate Change Impact The climate change impact on climate variables related to fires is calculated by building an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CORDEX data. A validation and an Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) calibration are done to assess the changes in the past of the climatic variables related to wildfires (temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and Fire Weather Index). Calculations in the trend and the frequency of extreme events of those variables are done for three time scales: near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). SP2 - Operational daily forecast of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using ensemble data from the ECMWF and from the GLAMEPS (multi-model ensemble) models, both supplied by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its index components are produced for each ensemble member within a wide forecast time range, from a few hours up to 10 days resulting in a

  6. Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

  7. The Effect of Prescribed Burns and Wildfire on Vegetation in Bastrop State Park, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    In 2011, central Texas had its worst drought since the 1950's. This, in conjunction with the strong winds produced by Tropical Storm Lee created conditions that made possible the Bastrop County Complex Fire in September 2011. These record-breaking wildfires burned over 95% of the 6,565-acre Bastrop State Park (BSP). Since 2003, BSP had been using prescribed burns as a management practice to reduce fuel load and prevent high severity wildfires. Although these prescribed fires did not prevent the 2011 wildfires they may have mitigated their effects. This study considered the effect of prescribed burn history and wildfire burn severity on vegetation recovery in BSP since the 2011 wildfire. The hypotheses of this study are that prescribed burn history and wildfire burn severity separately and jointly have affected post wildfire vegetation. To test these hypotheses, data were collected in 2013 from 46 plots across BSP using the Fire Effects Monitoring and Inventory (FIREMON) protocol to determine herbaceous plant density, shrub density, overstory density, and midstory tree density. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance (ANOVA) to determine the effects of prescribed fire and wildfire severity on these vegetation measurements. It was found that more severely burned plots had more herbaceous plants, fewer midstory trees, and lower shrub densities than less severely burned plots. Contrary to an initial hypotheses, there were few relationships between prescribed burn history and wildfire effects. The only significant effect detected for prescribed burning was the positive effect of prescribed fire on midstory tree density, but only for plots that were not severely burned in the wildfire. In this system, burn severity had a greater effect on post-wildfire vegetation than prescribed burns.

  8. Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Gareloi Volcano, Gareloi Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, Michelle L.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Browne, Brandon L.

    2008-01-01

    Gareloi Volcano (178.794 degrees W and 51.790 degrees N) is located on Gareloi Island in the Delarof Islands group of the Aleutian Islands, about 2,000 kilometers west-southwest of Anchorage and about 150 kilometers west of Adak, the westernmost community in Alaska. This small (about 8x10 kilometer) volcano has been one of the most active in the Aleutians since its discovery by the Bering expedition in the 1740s, though because of its remote location, observations have been scant and many smaller eruptions may have gone unrecorded. Eruptions of Gareloi commonly produce ash clouds and lava flows. Scars on the flanks of the volcano and debris-avalanche deposits on the adjacent seafloor indicate that the volcano has produced large landslides in the past, possibly causing tsunamis. Such events are infrequent, occurring at most every few thousand years. The primary hazard from Gareloi is airborne clouds of ash that could affect aircraft. In this report, we summarize and describe the major volcanic hazards associated with Gareloi.

  9. Volcano art at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park—A science perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaddis, Ben; Kauahikaua, James P.

    2018-03-26

    Long before landscape photography became common, artists sketched and painted scenes of faraway places for the masses. Throughout the 19th century, scientific expeditions to Hawaiʻi routinely employed artists to depict images for the people back home who had funded the exploration and for those with an interest in the newly discovered lands. In Hawaiʻi, artists portrayed the broad variety of people, plant and animal life, and landscapes, but a feature of singular interest was the volcanoes. Painters of early Hawaiian volcano landscapes created art that formed a cohesive body of work known as the “Volcano School” (Forbes, 1992). Jules Tavernier, Charles Furneaux, and D. Howard Hitchcock were probably the best known artists of this school, and their paintings can be found in galleries around the world. Their dramatic paintings were recognized as fine art but were also strong advertisements for tourists to visit Hawaiʻi. Many of these masterpieces are preserved in the Museum and Archive Collection of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, and in this report we have taken the opportunity to match the artwork with the approximate date and volcanological context of the scene.

  10. Evolution of deep crustal magma structures beneath Mount Baekdu volcano (MBV) intraplate volcano in northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhie, J.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Baag, S. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Heterogeneous features of magmatic structures beneath intraplate volcanoes are attributed to interactions between the ascending magma and lithospheric structures. Here, we investigate the evolution of crustal magmatic stuructures beneath Mount Baekdu volcano (MBV), which is one of the largest continental intraplate volcanoes in northeast Asia. The result of our seismic imaging shows that the deeper Moho depth ( 40 km) and relatively higher shear wave velocities (>3.8 km/s) at middle-to-lower crustal depths beneath the volcano. In addition, the pattern at the bottom of our model shows that the lithosphere beneath the MBV is shallower (interpret the observations as a compositional double layering of mafic underplating and a overlying cooled felsic structure due to fractional crystallization of asthenosphere origin magma. To achieve enhanced vertical and horizontal model coverage, we apply two approaches in this work, including (1) a grid-search based phase velocity measurement using real-coherency of ambient noise data and (2) a transdimensional Bayesian joint inversion using multiple ambient noise dispersion data.

  11. Understanding cyclic seismicity and ground deformation patterns at volcanoes: Intriguing lessons from Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuberg, Jürgen W.; Collinson, Amy S. D.; Mothes, Patricia A.; Ruiz, Mario C.; Aguaiza, Santiago

    2018-01-01

    Cyclic seismicity and ground deformation patterns are observed on many volcanoes worldwide where seismic swarms and the tilt of the volcanic flanks provide sensitive tools to assess the state of volcanic activity. Ground deformation at active volcanoes is often interpreted as pressure changes in a magmatic reservoir, and tilt is simply translated accordingly into inflation and deflation of such a reservoir. Tilt data recorded by an instrument in the summit area of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador, however, show an intriguing and unexpected behaviour on several occasions: prior to a Vulcanian explosion when a pressurisation of the system would be expected, the tilt signal declines significantly, hence indicating depressurisation. At the same time, seismicity increases drastically. Envisaging that such a pattern could carry the potential to forecast Vulcanian explosions on Tungurahua, we use numerical modelling and reproduce the observed tilt patterns in both space and time. We demonstrate that the tilt signal can be more easily explained as caused by shear stress due to viscous flow resistance, rather than by pressurisation of the magmatic plumbing system. In general, our numerical models prove that if magma shear viscosity and ascent rate are high enough, the resulting shear stress is sufficient to generate a tilt signal as observed on Tungurahua. Furthermore, we address the interdependence of tilt and seismicity through shear stress partitioning and suggest that a joint interpretation of tilt and seismicity can shed new light on the eruption potential of silicic volcanoes.

  12. Are wildfire management resources in the United States efficiently allocated to protect resources at risk? A case study from Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derek T. O' Donnell; Tyron J. Venna; David E. Calkin

    2014-01-01

    Federal wildfire management agencies in the United States are under substantial pressure to reduce and economically justify their expenditures. To support economically efficient management of wildfires, managers need better estimates of the resource benefits and avoided damage costs associated with alternative wildfire management strategies. This paper reports findings...

  13. Preliminary results from a survey of U.S. Forest Service wildfire managers' attitudes toward aviation personnel exposure and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew Wibbenmeyer; Michael Hand; David Calkin

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USFS) has, in recent years, increasingly emphasized the importance of safety to its employees, but wildfire management remains a risky endeavor. While wildfire management decisions affecting safety and exposure of firefighters to the wildland fire environment may be aided by decision support tools such the Wildfire...

  14. Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2014-01-01

    Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

  15. Volcano monitoring with an infrared camera: first insights from Villarrica Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas Sotomayor, Florencia; Amigo Ramos, Alvaro; Velasquez Vargas, Gabriela; Medina, Roxana; Thomas, Helen; Prata, Fred; Geoffroy, Carolina

    2015-04-01

    This contribution focuses on the first trials of the, almost 24/7 monitoring of Villarrica volcano with an infrared camera. Results must be compared with other SO2 remote sensing instruments such as DOAS and UV-camera, for the ''day'' measurements. Infrared remote sensing of volcanic emissions is a fast and safe method to obtain gas abundances in volcanic plumes, in particular when the access to the vent is difficult, during volcanic crisis and at night time. In recent years, a ground-based infrared camera (Nicair) has been developed by Nicarnica Aviation, which quantifies SO2 and ash on volcanic plumes, based on the infrared radiance at specific wavelengths through the application of filters. Three Nicair1 (first model) have been acquired by the Geological Survey of Chile in order to study degassing of active volcanoes. Several trials with the instruments have been performed in northern Chilean volcanoes, and have proven that the intervals of retrieved SO2 concentration and fluxes are as expected. Measurements were also performed at Villarrica volcano, and a location to install a ''fixed'' camera, at 8km from the crater, was discovered here. It is a coffee house with electrical power, wifi network, polite and committed owners and a full view of the volcano summit. The first measurements are being made and processed in order to have full day and week of SO2 emissions, analyze data transfer and storage, improve the remote control of the instrument and notebook in case of breakdown, web-cam/GoPro support, and the goal of the project: which is to implement a fixed station to monitor and study the Villarrica volcano with a Nicair1 integrating and comparing these results with other remote sensing instruments. This works also looks upon the strengthen of bonds with the community by developing teaching material and giving talks to communicate volcanic hazards and other geoscience topics to the people who live "just around the corner" from one of the most active volcanoes

  16. Imaging magma plumbing beneath Askja volcano, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenfield, Tim; White, Robert S.

    2015-04-01

    Volcanoes during repose periods are not commonly monitored by dense instrumentation networks and so activity during periods of unrest is difficult to put in context. We have operated a dense seismic network of 3-component, broadband instruments around Askja, a large central volcano in the Northern Volcanic Zone, Iceland, since 2006. Askja last erupted in 1961, with a relatively small basaltic lava flow. Since 1975 the central caldera has been subsiding and there has been no indication of volcanic activity. Despite this, Askja has been one of the more seismically active volcanoes in Iceland. The majority of these events are due to an extensive geothermal area within the caldera and tectonically induced earthquakes to the northeast which are not related to the magma plumbing system. More intriguing are the less numerous deeper earthquakes at 12-24km depth, situated in three distinct areas within the volcanic system. These earthquakes often show a frequency content which is lower than the shallower activity, but they still show strong P and S wave arrivals indicative of brittle failure, despite their location being well below the brittle-ductile boundary, which, in Askja is ~7km bsl. These earthquakes indicate the presence of melt moving or degassing at depth while the volcano is not inflating, as only high strain rates or increased pore fluid pressures would cause brittle fracture in what is normally an aseismic region in the ductile zone. The lower frequency content must be the result of a slower source time function as earthquakes which are both high frequency and low frequency come from the same cluster, thereby discounting a highly attenuating lower crust. To image the plumbing system beneath Askja, local and regional earthquakes have been used as sources to solve for the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Travel-time tables were created using a finite difference technique and the residuals were used to solve simultaneously for both the earthquake locations

  17. Wildfire may increase habitat quality for spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River subbasin, WA, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebecca L. Flitcroft; Jeffrey A. Falke; Gordon H. Reeves; Paul F. Hessburg; Kris M. McNyset; Lee E. Benda

    2016-01-01

    Pacific Northwest salmonids are adapted to natural disturbance regimes that create dynamic habitat patterns over space and through time. However, human land use, particularly long-term fire suppression, has altered the intensity and frequency of wildfire in forested upland and riparian areas. To examine the potential impacts of wildfire on aquatic systems, we developed...

  18. Oxidative aging and secondary organic aerosol formation from simulated wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. J. Hennigan; M. A. Miracolo; G. J. Engelhart; A. A. May; Cyle Wold; WeiMin Hao; T. Lee; A. P. Sullivan; J. B. Gilman; W. C. Kuster; J. A. de Gouw; J. L. Collett; S. M. Kreidenweis; A. L. Robinson

    2010-01-01

    Wildfires are a significant fraction of global biomass burning and a major source of trace gas and particle emissions in the atmosphere. Understanding the air quality and climate implications of wildfires is difficult since the emissions undergo complex transformations due to aging processes during transport away from the source. As part of the third Fire Lab at...

  19. Does personal experience affect choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armando González-Cabán; Thomas P. Holmes; John B. Loomis; José J. Sánchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss, and cost. A phone-mail-phone survey was used to collect data from homeowners predominantly living in medium and high wildfire risk communities in Florida. We tested three hypotheses: (1) homeowner...

  20. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  1. Overlapping Bark Beetle Outbreaks, Salvage Logging and Wildfire Restructure a Lodgepole Pine Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles C. Rhoades

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The 2010 Church’s Park Fire burned beetle-killed lodgepole pine stands in Colorado, including recently salvage-logged areas, creating a fortuitous opportunity to compare the effects of salvage logging, wildfire and the combination of logging followed by wildfire. Here, we examine tree regeneration, surface fuels, understory plants, inorganic soil nitrogen and water infiltration in uncut and logged stands, outside and inside the fire perimeter. Subalpine fir recruitment was abundant in uncut, unburned, beetle-killed stands, whereas lodgepole pine recruitment was abundant in cut stands. Logging roughly doubled woody fuel cover and halved forb and shrub cover. Wildfire consumed all conifer seedlings in uncut and cut stands and did not stimulate new conifer regeneration within four years of the fire. Aspen regeneration, in contrast, was relatively unaffected by logging or burning, alone or combined. Wildfire also drastically reduced cover of soil organic horizons, fine woody fuels, graminoids and shrubs relative to unburned, uncut areas; moreover, the compound effect of logging and wildfire was generally similar to wildfire alone. This case study documents scarce conifer regeneration but ample aspen regeneration after a wildfire that occurred in the later stage of a severe beetle outbreak. Salvage logging had mixed effects on tree regeneration, understory plant and surface cover and soil nitrogen, but neither exacerbated nor ameliorated wildfire effects on those resources.

  2. Wildfire potential mapping over the state of Mississippi: A land surface modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. Cooke; Georgy V. Mostovoy; Valentine G. Anantharaj; W. Matt Jolly

    2012-01-01

    A relationship between the likelihood of wildfires and various drought metrics (soil moisture-based fire potential indices) were examined over the southern part of Mississippi. The following three indices were tested and used to simulate spatial and temporal wildfire probability changes: (1) the accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential...

  3. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  4. Effects of wildfire on stream temperatures in the Bitterroot River basin, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shad K. Mahlum; Lisa A. Eby; Michael K. Young; Chris G. Clancy; Mike Jakober

    2011-01-01

    Wildfire is a common natural disturbance that can influence stream ecosystems. Of particular concern are increases in water temperature during and following fires, but studies of these phenomena are uncommon. We examined effects of wildfires in 2000 on maximum water temperature for a suite of second- to fourth-order streams with a range of burn severities in the...

  5. Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Buonopane, Michelle; Reger, Allison; Finney, Mark A

    2013-06-01

    We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

    2015-01-01

    Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

  7. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Krista M. Gebert; Jingjing Liang; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mo Zhou

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire management. Amid increased public scrutiny and a highly variable wildland fire environment, a substantial body of research has developed to study factors affecting the cost-effectiveness of wildfire...

  8. Race and wildfire risk perceptions among rural forestland owners in north-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miriam Wyman; Sparkle Malone; Taylor Stein; Cassandra Johnson

    2012-01-01

    The southern United States is susceptible to wildfire, from its climate, growing seasons, lightning frequency, and decades of fire suppression. With much known about wildfire’s biophysical risks, less is understood about sociodemographic obstacles, including race, income, and education. Blacks in the rural southeastern United States are typically among the most...

  9. Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

    2014-01-01

    Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

  10. The economic cost of adverse health effects from wildfire-smoke exposure: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikuho Kochi; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis

    2010-01-01

    The economic costs of adverse health effects associated with exposure to wildfire smoke should be given serious consideration in determining the optimal wildfire management policy. Unfortunately, the literature in this research area is thin. In an effort to better understand the nature of these economic costs, we review and synthesise the relevant literature in three...

  11. Using and improving social capital to increase community preparedness for wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shruti Agrawal; Martha C. Monroe

    2006-01-01

    Communities with more social capital are better able to work together to cope with problems such as a wildfire threat. This study found a positive relationship between perceiving greater social capital and participating in wildfire preparedness educational programs. Results suggest that managers can take advantage of existing social capital in communities to improve...

  12. Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Moody; Richard A. Shakesby; Peter R. Robichaud; Susan H. Cannon; Deborah A. Martin

    2013-01-01

    Research into post-wildfire effects began in the United Statesmore than 70 years ago and only later extended to other parts of the world. Post-wildfire responses are typically transient, episodic, variable in space and time, dependent on thresholds, and involve multiple processes measured by different methods. These characteristics tend to hinder research progress, but...

  13. Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Shakesby; John A. Moody; Deborah A. Martin; Pete Robichaud

    2016-01-01

    Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including...

  14. Wildfire Dynamics and Occasional Precipitation during Active Fire Season in Tropical Lowland of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna Bahadur Bhujel

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Occasional precipitation plays a vital role in reducing the effect of wildfire. This precipitation is especially important for countries like Nepal, where wildfires are a common seasonal event. Approximately 0.1 million hectare of forest area is affected annually due to wildfires in active fire season. The study on the relation of these forms of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence is still lacking. This research was objectively carried out to examine the correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spector-Radiometer (MODIS satellite images and precipitation records for 15 years gathered from Department of Hydrology and Metrology were used as input data for this study. The images were analyzed by using ArcGIS function while the precipitation records were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS program. The linear regression model was applied to find correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Analysis revealed decreasing trend of precipitation in study area. We found significant correlation (p<0.05 of precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Findings will be useful for policy makers, implementers and researchers to manage wildfire in sustainable basis.

  15. Social amplification of wildfire risk: The role of social interactions and information sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Katherine L. Dickinson; Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire-prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social...

  16. Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program: Full-scale testing and demonstration final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quarles, Stephen, L.; Sindelar, Melissa

    2011-12-13

    The primary goal of the Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program was to develop a home evaluation tool that could assess the ignition potential of a structure subjected to wildfire exposures. This report describes the tests that were conducted, summarizes the results, and discusses the implications of these results with regard to the vulnerabilities to homes and buildings.

  17. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  18. Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest carbon dynamics in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph C. Restiano; David L. Peterson

    2013-01-01

    Sequestration of carbon (C) in forests has the potential to mitigate the effects of climate change by offsetting future emissions of greenhouse gases. However, in dry temperate forests, wildfire is a natural disturbance agent with the potential to release large fluxes of C into the atmosphere. Climate-driven increases in wildfire extent and severity arc expected to...

  19. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce. Shindler

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

  20. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Hand; Hari Katuwal; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Despite large commitments of personnel and equipment to wildfire suppression, relatively little is known about the factors that affect how many resources are ordered and assigned to wildfire incidents and the variation in resources across incident management teams (IMTs). Using detailed data on suppression resource assignments for IMTs managing the highest complexity...

  1. A Wildfire-relevant climatology of the convective environment of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian E. Potter; Matthew A. Anaya

    2015-01-01

    Convective instability can influence the behaviour of large wildfires. Because wildfires modify the temperature and moisture of air in their plumes, instability calculations using ambient conditions may not accurately represent convective potential for some fire plumes. This study used the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop a climatology of the convective...

  2. Social media approaches to modeling wildfire smoke dispersion: spatiotemporal and social scientific investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonya Sachdeva; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Dexter Locke

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires have significant effects on human populations, economically, environmentally, and in terms of their general wellbeing. Smoke pollution, in particular, from either prescribed burns or uncontrolled wildfires, can have significant health impacts. Some estimates suggest that smoke dispersion from fire events may affect the health of one in three residents in the...

  3. Air Quality Deterioration of Urban Areas Caused by Wildfires in a Natural Reservoir Forest of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Carbajal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Many regions of the world suffer loss of vegetation and reduced air quality due to wildfires. Studies on aerosol emissions by wildfires often discuss the negative effects of atmospheric contaminants from a regional or mesoscale perspective. The occurrence of wildfires reveals that a high percentage takes place close to large urban areas. Very high concentration of pollutants and PM10 particulate matter reach urban zones and millions of inhabitants. These events of high pollutant concentrations are seasonally recurrent. There are many large urban areas in the world that often undergo severe air deterioration due to wildfires smoke. We document the extreme impact of wildfire that occurs in the Protected Area of Flora and Fauna La Primavera located in neighborhood of Guadalajara, a large urban zone in Mexico. The simultaneous emissions of aerosols by 60 wildfires were simulated and compared with observed data. The plume generated by the wildfires reached large areas of the central part of Mexico. The principal characteristics of smog emissions (CO, NO2, and PM10 over the urban area were acceptably reproduced. Observed and modeled CO, PM10, and NO2 data indicated that aerosol plumes generated by the wildfires increased notably the concentrations over the metropolitan zone of Guadalajara.

  4. Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Mark A. Finney; Ken Vance-Borland; Nicole M. Vaillant

    2014-01-01

    We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance on a 0.75 million ha US national forest. Wildfires in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20–50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological...

  5. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Hand; Matthew P. Thompson; Dave Calkin

    2016-01-01

    Increasing costs of wildfire management have highlighted the need to better understand suppression expenditures and potential tradeoffs of land management activities that may affect fire risks. Spatially and temporally descriptive data is used to develop a model of wildfire suppression expenditures, providing new insights into the role of spatial and temporal...

  6. The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

  7. Difference in information needs for wildfire evacuees and non-evacuees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. McCaffrey; Anne-Lise Knox Velez; Jason Alexander. Briefel

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines whether evacuees from two wildfires displayed different information seeking behavior than non-evacuees. Findings are the results of a mail survey sent to residents affected by wildfires outside Flagstaff, Arizona and Boulder, Colorado in 2010. We found evacuees sought information more actively than non-evacuees and placed a greater emphasis on use...

  8. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2011-01-01

    The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

  9. Post-wildfire seeding in forests of the western United States: An evidence-based review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donna Peppin; Peter Z. Fule; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Jan L. Beyers; Molly E. Hunter

    2010-01-01

    Broadcast seeding is one of the most widely used post-wildfire emergency response treatments intended to reduce soil erosion, increase vegetative ground cover, and minimize establishment and spread of non-native plant species. We conducted an evidence-based review to examine the effectiveness and effects of post-wildfire seeding treatments on soil stabilization, non-...

  10. Economic analysis of prescribed burning for wildfire management in Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronique Florec; David Pannell; Michael Burton; Joel Kelso; Drew Mellor; George Milne

    2013-01-01

    Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, life and property, and wildfire events that do not involve people and property are becoming rare. With the expansion of the rural– urban interface in Western Australia and elsewhere, objectives of life and property protection become more difficult to achieve. We applied the cost plus net value change (C+NVC) model...

  11. Evaluating alternative prescribed burning policies to reduce net economic damages from wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; John M. Pye

    2007-01-01

    We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on...

  12. Mineralogical and geochemical study of mud volcanoes in north ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The gulf of Cadiz is one of the most interesting areas to study mud volcanoes and structures related to cold fluid seeps since their discovery in 1999. In this study, we present results from gravity cores collected from Ginsburg and Meknes mud volcanoes and from circular structure located in the gulf of Cadiz (North Atlantic ...

  13. Fuego Volcano eruption (Guatemala, 1974): evidence of a tertiary fragmentation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenes-Andre, Jose

    2014-01-01

    Values for mode and dispersion calculated from SFT were analyzed using the SFT (Sequential Fragmentation/Transport) model to Fuego Volcano eruption (Guatemala, 1974). Analysis results have showed that the ideas initially proposed for Irazu, can be applied to Fuego Volcano. Experimental evidence was found corroborating the existence of tertiary fragmentations. (author) [es

  14. 36 CFR 7.25 - Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. 7.25 Section 7.25 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.25 Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. (a...

  15. Using Google Earth to Study the Basic Characteristics of Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Stacia; Mattox, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Landforms, natural hazards, and the change in the Earth over time are common material in state and national standards. Volcanoes exemplify these standards and readily capture the interest and imagination of students. With a minimum of training, students can recognize erupted materials and types of volcanoes; in turn, students can relate these…

  16. Volcano ecology: Disturbance characteristics and assembly of biological communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volcanic eruptions are powerful expressions of Earth’s geophysical forces which have shaped and influenced ecological systems since the earliest days of life. The study of the interactions of volcanoes and ecosystems, termed volcano ecology, focuses on the ecological responses of organisms and biolo...

  17. Copahue volcano and its regional magmatic setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varekamp, J C; Zareski, J E; Camfield, L M; Todd, Erin

    2016-01-01

    Copahue volcano (Province of Neuquen, Argentina) has produced lavas and strombolian deposits over several 100,000s of years, building a rounded volcano with a 3 km elevation. The products are mainly basaltic andesites, with the 2000–2012 eruptive products the most mafic. The geochemistry of Copahue products is compared with those of the main Andes arc (Llaima, Callaqui, Tolhuaca), the older Caviahue volcano directly east of Copahue, and the back arc volcanics of the Loncopue graben. The Caviahue rocks resemble the main Andes arc suite, whereas the Copahue rocks are characterized by lower Fe and Ti contents and higher incompatible element concentrations. The rocks have negative Nb-Ta anomalies, modest enrichments in radiogenic Sr and Pb isotope ratios and slightly depleted Nd isotope ratios. The combined trace element and isotopic data indicate that Copahue magmas formed in a relatively dry mantle environment, with melting of a subducted sediment residue. The back arc basalts show a wide variation in isotopic composition, have similar water contents as the Copahue magmas and show evidence for a subducted sedimentary component in their source regions. The low 206Pb/204Pb of some backarc lava flows suggests the presence of a second endmember with an EM1 flavor in its source. The overall magma genesis is explained within the context of a subducted slab with sediment that gradually looses water, water-mobile elements, and then switches to sediment melt extracts deeper down in the subduction zone. With the change in element extraction mechanism with depth comes a depletion and fractionation of the subducted complex that is reflected in the isotope and trace element signatures of the products from the main arc to Copahue to the back arc basalts.

  18. Isotopic evolution of Mauna Loa volcano

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurz, M.D.; Kammer, D.P.

    1991-01-01

    In an effort to understand the temporal helium isotopic variations in Mauna Loa volcano, we have measured helium, strontium and lead isotopes in a suite of Mauna Loa lavas that span most of the subaerial eruptive history of the volcano. The lavas range in age from historical flows to Ninole basalt which are thought to be several hundred thousand years old. Most of the samples younger than 30 ka in age (Kau Basalt) are radiocarbon-dated flows, while the samples older than 30 ka are stratigraphically controlled (Kahuku and Ninole Basalt). The data reveal a striking change in the geochemistry of the lavas approximately 10 ka before present. The lavas older than 10 ka are characterized by high 3 He/ 4 He (≅ 16-20 times atmospheric), higher 206 Pb/ 204 Pb (≅ 18.2), and lower 87 Sr/ 86 Sr(≅ 0.70365) ratios than the younger Kau samples (having He, Pb and Sr ratios of approximately 8.5 x atmospheric, 18.1 and 0.70390, respectively). The historical lavas are distinct in having intermediate Sr and Pb isotopic compositions with 3 He/ 4 He ratios similar to the other young Kau basalt (≅ 8.5 x atmospheric). The isotopic variations are on a shorter time scale (100 to 10,000 years) than has previously been observed for Hawaiian volcanoes, and demonstrate the importance of geochronology and stratigraphy to geochemical studies. The data show consistency between all three isotope systems, which suggests that the variations are not related to magma chamber degassing processes, and that helium is not decoupled from the other isotopes. However, the complex temporal evolution suggests that three distinct mantle sources are required to explain the isotopic data. Most of the Mauna Loa isotopic variations could be explained by mixing between a plume type source, similar to Loihi, and an asthenospheric source with helium isotopic composition close to MORB and elevated Sr isotopic values. (orig./WL)

  19. Monte Carlo Volcano Seismic Moment Tensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, G. P.; Brill, K. A.; Lanza, F.

    2015-12-01

    Inverse modeling of volcano seismic sources can provide insight into the geometry and dynamics of volcanic conduits. But given the logistical challenges of working on an active volcano, seismic networks are typically deficient in spatial and temporal coverage; this potentially leads to large errors in source models. In addition, uncertainties in the centroid location and moment-tensor components, including volumetric components, are difficult to constrain from the linear inversion results, which leads to a poor understanding of the model space. In this study, we employ a nonlinear inversion using a Monte Carlo scheme with the objective of defining robustly resolved elements of model space. The model space is randomized by centroid location and moment tensor eigenvectors. Point sources densely sample the summit area and moment tensors are constrained to a randomly chosen geometry within the inversion; Green's functions for the random moment tensors are all calculated from modeled single forces, making the nonlinear inversion computationally reasonable. We apply this method to very-long-period (VLP) seismic events that accompany minor eruptions at Fuego volcano, Guatemala. The library of single force Green's functions is computed with a 3D finite-difference modeling algorithm through a homogeneous velocity-density model that includes topography, for a 3D grid of nodes, spaced 40 m apart, within the summit region. The homogenous velocity and density model is justified by long wavelength of VLP data. The nonlinear inversion reveals well resolved model features and informs the interpretation through a better understanding of the possible models. This approach can also be used to evaluate possible station geometries in order to optimize networks prior to deployment.

  20. Volcano morphometry and volume scaling on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, J. B.; Williams, R. S., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    A broad variety of volcanic edifices have been observed on Venus. They ranged in size from the limits of resolution of the Magellan SAR (i.e., hundreds of meters) to landforms over 500 km in basal diameter. One of the key questions pertaining to volcanism on Venus concerns the volume eruption rate or VER, which is linked to crustal productivity over time. While less than 3 percent of the surface area of Venus is manifested as discrete edifices larger than 50 km in diameter, a substantial component of the total crustal volume of the planet over the past 0.5 Ga is related to isolated volcanoes, which are certainly more easily studied than the relatively diffusely defined plains volcanic flow units. Thus, we have focused our efforts on constraining the volume productivity of major volcanic edifices larger than 100 km in basal diameter. Our approach takes advantage of the topographic data returned by Magellan, as well as our database of morphometric statistics for the 20 best known lava shields of Iceland, plus Mauna Loa of Hawaii. As part of this investigation, we have quantified the detailed morphometry of nearly 50 intermediate to large scale edifices, with particular attention to their shape systematics. We found that a set of venusian edifices which include Maat, Sapas, Tepev, Sif, Gula, a feature at 46 deg S, 215 deg E, as well as the shield-like structure at 10 deg N, 275 deg E are broadly representative of the approx. 400 volcanic landforms larger than 50 km. The cross-sectional shapes of these 7 representative edifices range from flattened cones (i.e., Sif) similar to classic terrestrial lava shields such as Mauna Loa and Skjaldbreidur, to rather dome-like structures which include Maat and Sapas. The majority of these larger volcanoes surveyed as part of our study displayed cross-sectional topographies with paraboloidal shaped, in sharp contrast with the cone-like appearance of most simple terrestrial lava shields. In order to more fully explore the

  1. The deep structure of Axial Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Michael Edwin

    The subsurface structure of Axial Volcano, near the intersection of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the Cobb-Eickelberg seamount chain in the northeast Pacific, is imaged from an active source seismic experiment. At a depth of 2.25 to 3.5 km beneath Axial lies an 8 km x 12 km region of very low seismic velocities that can only be explained by the presence of magma. In the center of this magma storage chamber at 2--3.5 km below sea floor, the crust is at least 10--20% melt. At depths of 4--5 km there is evidence of additional low concentrations of magma (a few percent) over a larger area. In total, 5--11 km3 of magma are stored in the mid-crust beneath Axial. This is more melt than has been positively identified under any basaltic volcano on Earth. It is also far more than the 0.1--0.2 km3 emplaced during the 1998 eruption. The implied residence time in the magma reservoir of a few hundred to a few thousand years agrees with geochemical trends which suggest prolonged storage and mixing of magmas. The large volume of melt bolsters previous observations that Axial provides much of the material to create crust along its 50 km rift zones. A high velocity ring-shaped feature sits above the magma chamber just outside the caldera walls. This feature is believed to be the result of repeated dike injections from the magma body to the surface during the construction of the volcanic edifice. A rapid change in crustal thickness from 8 to 11 km within 15 km of the caldera implies focused delivery of melt from the mantle. The high flux of magma suggests that melting occurs deeper in the mantle than along the nearby ridge. Melt supply to the volcano is not connected to any plumbing system associated with the adjacent segments of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. This suggests that, despite Axial's proximity to the ridge, the Cobb hot spot currently drives the supply of melt to the volcano.

  2. Cataloging tremor at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, W. A.; Wech, A.

    2013-12-01

    Tremor is a ubiquitous seismic feature on Kilauea volcano, which emanates from at least three distinct sources. At depth, intermittent tremor and earthquakes thought to be associated with the underlying plumbing system of Kilauea (Aki and Koyanagi, 1981) occurs approximately 40 km below and 40 km SW of the summit. At the summit of the volcano, nearly continuous tremor is recorded close to a persistently degassing lava lake, which has been present since 2008. Much of this tremor is correlated with spattering at the lake surface, but tremor also occurs in the absence of spattering, and was observed at the summit of the volcano prior to the appearance of the lava lake, predominately in association with inflation/deflation events. The third known source of tremor is in the area of Pu`u `O`o, a vent that has been active since 1983. The exact source location and depth is poorly constrained for each of these sources. Consistently tracking the occurrence and location of tremor in these areas through time will improve our understanding of the plumbing geometry beneath Kilauea volcano and help identify precursory patterns in tremor leading to changes in eruptive activity. The continuous and emergent nature of tremor precludes the use of traditional earthquake techniques for automatic detection and location of seismicity. We implement the method of Wech and Creager (2008) to both detect and localize tremor seismicity in the three regions described above. The technique uses an envelope cross-correlation method in 5-minute windows that maximizes tremor signal coherency among seismic stations. The catalog is currently being built in near-realtime, with plans to extend the analysis to the past as time and continuous data availability permits. This automated detection and localization method has relatively poor depth constraints due to the construction of the envelope function. Nevertheless, the epicenters distinguish activity among the different source regions and serve as

  3. Geology of El Chichon volcano, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffield, Wendell A.; Tilling, Robert I.; Canul, Rene

    1984-03-01

    The (pre-1982) 850-m-high andesitic stratovolcano El Chichón, active during Pleistocene and Holocene time, is located in rugged, densely forested terrain in northcentral Chiapas, México. The nearest neighboring Holocene volcanoes are 275 km and 200 km to the southeast and northwest, respectively. El Chichón is built on Tertiary siltstone and sandstone, underlain by Cretaceous dolomitic limestone; a 4-km-deep bore hole near the east base of the volcano penetrated this limestone and continued 770 m into a sequence of Jurassic or Cretaceous evaporitic anhydrite and halite. The basement rocks are folded into generally northwest-trending anticlines and synclines. El Chichón is built over a small dome-like structure superposed on a syncline, and this structure may reflect cumulative deformation related to growth of a crustal magma reservoir beneath the volcano. The cone of El Chichón consists almost entirely of pyroclastic rocks. The pre-1982 cone is marked by a 1200-m-diameter (explosion?) crater on the southwest flank and a 1600-m-diameter crater apparently of similar origin at the summit, a lava dome partly fills each crater. The timing of cone and dome growth is poorly known. Field evidence indicates that the flank dome is older than the summit dome, and K-Ar ages from samples high on the cone suggest that the flank dome is older than about 276,000 years. At least three pyroclastic eruptions have occurred during the past 1250 radiocarbon years. Nearly all of the pyroclastic and dome rocks are moderately to highly porphyritic andesite, with plagioclase, hornblende and clinopyroxene the most common phenocrysts. Geologists who mapped El Chichón in 1980 and 1981 warned that the volcano posed a substantial hazard to the surrounding region. This warning was proven to be prophetic by violent eruptions that occurred in March and April of 1982. These eruptions blasted away nearly all of the summit dome, blanketed the surrounding region with tephra, and sent pyroclastic

  4. Degassing Processes at Persistently Active Explosive Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smekens, Jean-Francois

    Among volcanic gases, sulfur dioxide (SO2) is by far the most commonly measured. More than a monitoring proxy for volcanic degassing, SO 2 has the potential to alter climate patterns. Persistently active explosive volcanoes are characterized by short explosive bursts, which often occur at periodic intervals numerous times per day, spanning years to decades. SO 2 emissions at those volcanoes are poorly constrained, in large part because the current satellite monitoring techniques are unable to detect or quantify plumes of low concentration in the troposphere. Eruption plumes also often show high concentrations of ash and/or aerosols, which further inhibit the detection methods. In this work I focus on quantifying volcanic gas emissions at persistently active explosive volcanoes and their variations over short timescales (minutes to hours), in order to document their contribution to natural SO2 flux as well as investigate the physical processes that control their behavior. In order to make these measurements, I first develop and assemble a UV ground-based instrument, and validate it against an independently measured source of SO2 at a coal-burning power plant in Arizona. I establish a measurement protocol and demonstrate that the instrument measures SO 2 fluxes with Indonesia), a volcano that has been producing cycles of repeated explosions with periods of minutes to hours for the past several decades. Semeru produces an average of 21-71 tons of SO2 per day, amounting to a yearly output of 8-26 Mt. Using the Semeru data, along with a 1-D transient numerical model of magma ascent, I test the validity of a model in which a viscous plug at the top of the conduit produces cycles of eruption and gas release. I find that it can be a valid hypothesis to explain the observed patterns of degassing at Semeru. Periodic behavior in such a system occurs for a very narrow range of conditions, for which the mass balance between magma flux and open-system gas escape repeatedly

  5. Mud Volcanoes as Exploration Targets on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Carlton C.; Oehler, Dorothy Z.

    2010-01-01

    Tens of thousands of high-albedo mounds occur across the southern part of the Acidalia impact basin on Mars. These structures have geologic, physical, mineralogic, and morphologic characteristics consistent with an origin from a sedimentary process similar to terrestrial mud volcanism. The potential for mud volcanism in the Northern Plains of Mars has been recognized for some time, with candidate mud volcanoes reported from Utopia, Isidis, northern Borealis, Scandia, and the Chryse-Acidalia region. We have proposed that the profusion of mounds in Acidalia is a consequence of this basin's unique geologic setting as the depocenter for the tune fraction of sediments delivered by the outflow channels from the highlands.

  6. Galactic Super-volcano in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    A galactic "super-volcano" in the massive galaxy M87 is erupting and blasting gas outwards, as witnessed by NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and NSF's Very Large Array. The cosmic volcano is being driven by a giant black hole in the galaxy's center and preventing hundreds of millions of new stars from forming. Astronomers studying this black hole and its effects have been struck by the remarkable similarities between it and a volcano in Iceland that made headlines earlier this year. At a distance of about 50 million light years, M87 is relatively close to Earth and lies at the center of the Virgo cluster, which contains thousands of galaxies. M87's location, coupled with long observations over Chandra's lifetime, has made it an excellent subject for investigations of how a massive black hole impacts its environment. "Our results show in great detail that supermassive black holes have a surprisingly good control over the evolution of the galaxies in which they live," said Norbert Werner of the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology at Stanford University and the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, who led one of two papers describing the study. "And it doesn't stop there. The black hole's reach extends ever farther into the entire cluster, similar to how one small volcano can affect practically an entire hemisphere on Earth." The cluster surrounding M87 is filled with hot gas glowing in X-ray light, which is detected by Chandra. As this gas cools, it can fall toward the galaxy's center where it should continue to cool even faster and form new stars. However, radio observations with the Very Large Array suggest that in M87 jets of very energetic particles produced by the black hole interrupt this process. These jets lift up the relatively cool gas near the center of the galaxy and produce shock waves in the galaxy's atmosphere because of their supersonic speed. The scientists involved in this research have found the interaction of this cosmic

  7. Mud Volcanoes of Trinidad as Astrobiological Analogs for Martian Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riad Hosein

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Eleven onshore mud volcanoes in the southern region of Trinidad have been studied as analog habitats for possible microbial life on Mars. The profiles of the 11 mud volcanoes are presented in terms of their physical, chemical, mineralogical, and soil properties. The mud volcanoes sampled all emitted methane gas consistently at 3% volume. The average pH for the mud volcanic soil was 7.98. The average Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC was found to be 2.16 kg/mol, and the average Percentage Water Content was 34.5%. Samples from three of the volcanoes, (i Digity; (ii Piparo and (iii Devil’s Woodyard were used to culture bacterial colonies under anaerobic conditions indicating possible presence of methanogenic microorganisms. The Trinidad mud volcanoes can serve as analogs for the Martian environment due to similar geological features found extensively on Mars in Acidalia Planitia and the Arabia Terra region.

  8. Measurements of radon and chemical elements: Popocatepetl volcano

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pena, P.; Segovia, N.; Lopez, B.; Reyes, A.V.; Armienta, M.A.; Valdes, C.; Mena, M.; Seidel, J.L.; Monnin, M.

    2002-01-01

    The Popocatepetl volcano is a higher risk volcano located at 60 Km from Mexico City. Radon measurements on soil in two fixed seasons located in the north slope of volcano were carried out. Moreover the radon content, major chemical elements and tracks in water samples of three springs was studied. The radon of soil was determined with solid detectors of nuclear tracks (DSTN). The radon in subterranean water was evaluated through the liquid scintillation method and it was corroborated with an Alpha Guard equipment. The major chemical elements were determined with conventional chemical methods and the track elements were measured using an Icp-Ms equipment. The radon on soil levels were lower, indicating a moderate diffusion of the gas across the slope of the volcano. The radon in subterranean water shown few changes in relation with the active scene of the volcano. The major chemical elements and tracks showed a stable behavior during the sampling period. (Author)

  9. Mud Volcanoes of Trinidad as Astrobiological Analogs for Martian Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosein, Riad; Haque, Shirin; Beckles, Denise M.

    2014-01-01

    Eleven onshore mud volcanoes in the southern region of Trinidad have been studied as analog habitats for possible microbial life on Mars. The profiles of the 11 mud volcanoes are presented in terms of their physical, chemical, mineralogical, and soil properties. The mud volcanoes sampled all emitted methane gas consistently at 3% volume. The average pH for the mud volcanic soil was 7.98. The average Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) was found to be 2.16 kg/mol, and the average Percentage Water Content was 34.5%. Samples from three of the volcanoes, (i) Digity; (ii) Piparo and (iii) Devil’s Woodyard were used to culture bacterial colonies under anaerobic conditions indicating possible presence of methanogenic microorganisms. The Trinidad mud volcanoes can serve as analogs for the Martian environment due to similar geological features found extensively on Mars in Acidalia Planitia and the Arabia Terra region. PMID:25370529

  10. Tsunamis generated by eruptions from mount st. Augustine volcano, alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienle, J; Kowalik, Z; Murty, T S

    1987-06-12

    During an eruption of the Alaskan volcano Mount St. Augustine in the spring of 1986, there was concern about the possibility that a tsunami might be generated by the collapse of a portion of the volcano into the shallow water of Cook Inlet. A similar edifice collapse of the volcano and ensuing sea wave occurred during an eruption in 1883. Other sea waves resulting in great loss of life and property have been generated by the eruption of coastal volcanos around the world. Although Mount St. Augustine remained intact during this eruptive cycle, a possible recurrence of the 1883 events spurred a numerical simulation of the 1883 sea wave. This simulation, which yielded a forecast of potential wave heights and travel times, was based on a method that could be applied generally to other coastal volcanos.

  11. Mud volcanoes of trinidad as astrobiological analogs for martian environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosein, Riad; Haque, Shirin; Beckles, Denise M

    2014-10-13

    Eleven onshore mud volcanoes in the southern region of Trinidad have been studied as analog habitats for possible microbial life on Mars. The profiles of the 11 mud volcanoes are presented in terms of their physical, chemical, mineralogical, and soil properties. The mud volcanoes sampled all emitted methane gas consistently at 3% volume. The average pH for the mud volcanic soil was 7.98. The average Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) was found to be 2.16 kg/mol, and the average Percentage Water Content was 34.5%. Samples from three of the volcanoes, (i) Digity; (ii) Piparo and (iii) Devil's Woodyard were used to culture bacterial colonies under anaerobic conditions indicating possible presence of methanogenic microorganisms. The Trinidad mud volcanoes can serve as analogs for the Martian environment due to similar geological features found extensively on Mars in Acidalia Planitia and the Arabia Terra region.

  12. Establishment, test and evaluation of a prototype volcano surveillance system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.; Eaton, J. P.; Endo, E.; Harlow, D.; Marquez, D.; Allen, R.

    1973-01-01

    A volcano-surveillance system utilizing 23 multilevel earthquake counters and 6 biaxial borehole tiltmeters is being installed and tested on 15 volcanoes in 4 States and 4 foreign countries. The purpose of this system is to give early warning when apparently dormant volcanoes are becoming active. The data are relayed through the ERTS-Data Collection System to Menlo Park for analysis. Installation was completed in 1972 on the volcanoes St. Augustine and Iliamna in Alaska, Kilauea in Hawaii, Baker, Rainier and St. Helens in Washington, Lassen in California, and at a site near Reykjavik, Iceland. Installation continues and should be completed in April 1973 on the volcanoes Santiaguito, Fuego, Agua and Pacaya in Guatemala, Izalco in El Salvador and San Cristobal, Telica and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua.

  13. Re-envisioning community-wildfire relations in the U.S. West as adaptive governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse B. Abrams

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Prompted by a series of increasingly destructive, expensive, and highly visible wildfire crises in human communities across the globe, a robust body of scholarship has emerged to theorize, conceptualize, and measure community-level resilience to wildfires. To date, however, insufficient consideration has been given to wildfire resilience as a process of adaptive governance mediated by institutions at multiple scales. Here we explore the possibilities for addressing this gap through an analysis of wildfire resilience among wildland-urban interface communities in the western region of the United States. We re-engage important but overlooked components of social-ecological system resilience by situating rural communities within their state- to national-level institutional contexts; we then analyze two communities in Nevada and New Mexico in terms of their institutional settings and responses to recent wildfire events. We frame our analysis around the concepts of scale matching, linking within and across scales, and institutional flexibility.

  14. The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive

    2016-09-01

    Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

  15. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  16. Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies

    OpenAIRE

    Lankoande, Mariam D.; Yoder, Jonathan K.; Wandschneider, Philip R.

    2006-01-01

    Contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management cost-sharing programs are becoming more prevalent in western states. This paper develops a model to examine the incentive effects of these two mechanisms for private investment in wildfire risk mitigation. The model shows that contingent insurance contracts strengthen incentives for risk mitigation relative to pooled contracts and subsidies induce more risk mitigation effort by reducing margin private costs of mitigation. With pooled insurance...

  17. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  18. Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F A; Bravo, Mercedes A; Bell, Michelle L

    2016-10-01

    Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM 2.5 , to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM 2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM 2.5 . Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

  19. Transboundary Collaborations to Enhance Wildfire Suppression in Protected Areas of the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. N. Zaimes

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For the most effective and efficient management of certain natural resources (e.g. protected areas and disasters (e.g. wildfires transboundary approaches are needed. In addition in the management of protected areas, the role of wildfire should be incorporated, something that was ignored in the past and led to catastrophic wildfires. The Black Sea is a region that wildfires in the protected areas are expected to increase. This has to do with the abandonment of rural areas and the higher temperatures, especially during summer, due to climate change. Interesting is also the fact that some countries of the region have extensive experience while other do not have neither the experience nor the necessary infrastructures to face large wildfires. A transboundary collaboration would be very beneficial to the countries with limited experiences and capacities to suppress wildfires. The objective of this study is to be proactive by developing innovative tools to help suppress wildfires and enhancing the knowledge on wildfires and protected areas. The innovative tools included 4 different research activities and products. Firstly, an online Digital Geodatabase for the six pilot areas was developed. Next forest fire fuels and maps were developed while a forest fire behavior model was run to create the overall fire risk maps for the pilot areas. To estimate water resources and watershed streamflows the hydrologic model SWAT was validated and calibrated for the pilot areas. The final activities included a multi-criteria decision analysis to select the optimal location of the water reservoirs and the use of spatial analyst to provide the optimal routes to reach reservoirs by the fire vehicles. To enhance the responsible agency personnel along with stakeholders knowledge of the region, a Neighborhood Network with regular quarterly meetings was established. Participants for all six project countries were present in the meetings. Overall, new tool that will enhance

  20. In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

    2018-01-01

    Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological

  1. Aerial wildfire fighting: history, current situation, problems and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Bryukhanov

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays aviation is among the most effective ways of early detection and suppression of wildfires. At the moment for the aerial wildfire fighting a few dozen models of aircraft are used worldwide, which are regularly modernized and renewed. In this article, authors give information about the history of fighting wildfires from the air, as well as analyze the current state of the issue with the use of aircraft and helicopter airtankers for firefighting, both at international level and in the territory of the Russian Federation. It is revealed that the most popular in the world still are the ground-based firefighting aircraft (regardless of the class of the carrying capacity. Amphibious firefighting aircraft now exist only in light (carrying capacity up to 5 tons and in medium type (capacity up to 15 tons. Among the helicopter aviation, heavy firefighting helicopters are mostly widely spread, as well as medium multipurpose helicopters, which are, apart from suppression, involved into delivery of people and goods to forest fire sites. The article is devoted to the main directions, according to which the development of aircraft tanker equipment abroad and in Russia occurs. The attention is directed to the most promising developments, and specific recommendations on how to increase the effectiveness of the fire aviation usage in Russia are given. Based on the studies carried out, a conclusion is drawn that for different countries there can be promising different types of firefighting aircraft, considering their landing field infrastructure, characteristics of forests and hydro systems, as well as the total area of the forest fund.

  2. Does historical wildfire activity alter metal fluxes to northern lakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, N.; Chetelat, J.; Vermaire, J. C.; Palmer, M.; Black, J.; Pellisey, J.; Tracz, B.; van der Wielen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Current drought conditions in northwestern Canada are conducive to more frequent and severe wildfires that may mobilize mercury and other metals accumulated in soil and biomass. There is evidence that wildfires can remobilize and transport mercury within and outside catchments by atmospheric volatilization, particulate emissions and catchment soil erosion. However, the effect of fires on mercury fluxes to nearby lake sediments remains unclear. In this study, we use a combination of 10 dated lake sediment cores and four nearby ombrotrophic peatland cores to investigate the effects of wildfires on mercury fluxes to lake sediments. Lakes varying in catchment size and distance from recent fire events were sampled. Mercury concentrations in the environmental archives were measured, and macroscopic charcoal particles (>100 um) were counted at high resolution in the sediments to observe the co-variation of the local fire history and mercury fluxes. Mercury flux recorded in ombrotrophic peat cores provided an estimate of the historical atmospheric mercury flux from local and regional atmospheric deposition. The mercury flux recorded in lake sediments corresponds to the sum of direct atmospheric deposition and catchment transport. In combination, these archives will allow for the partitioning of mercury loading attributable to catchment transport from direct atmospheric deposition. After correcting the fluxes for particle focusing and terragenic elements input, flux from different lakes will be compared based on their catchment size and their temporal and spatial proximity known fire events. Altogether, our preliminary results using these paleolimnological methods will provide new insights on mercury transport processes that are predicted to become more important under a changing climate.

  3. Weather types and the regime of wildfires in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2009-04-01

    An objective classification scheme, as developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), was applied to classify the daily atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal between 1980 and 2007 into a set of 10 basic weather types (WTs). The classification scheme relies on a set of atmospheric circulation indices, namely southerly flow (SF), westerly flow (WF), total flow (F), southerly shear vorticity (ZS), westerly shear vorticity (ZW) and total vorticity (Z). The weather-typing approach, together with surfacemeteorological variables (e.g. intensity and direction of geostrophic wind, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) were then associated to wildfire events as recorded in the official Portuguese fire database consisting of information on each fire occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal within the same period (>450.000 events). The objective of this study is to explore the dependence of wildfire activity on weather and climate and then evaluate the potential of WTs to discriminate among recorded wildfires on what respects to their occurrence and development. Results show that days characterised by surface flow with an eastern component (i.e. NE, E and SE) account for a high percentage of daily burnt area, as opposed to surface westerly flow (NW, W and SW), which represents about a quarter of the total number of days but only accounts for a very low percentage of active fires and of burnt area. Meteorological variables such as minimum and maximum temperatures, that are closely associated to surface wind intensity and direction, also present a good ability to discriminate between the different types of fire events.. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

  4. Interim Report 'Winter smog and traffic'.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemen, H.; Blom, T.; Bogaard, van den C.; Boluyt, N.; Bree, van L.; Brunekreef, B.; Hoek, G.; Zee, van der S.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a halfway score of the research project "Winter smog and Traffic", one of the themes of the research programme "Air Pollution and Health". A state of the art is presented of the health effects associated with exposure to winter smog and of the toxicological effects caused by the

  5. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence

    2001-03-01

    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  6. How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

  7. Chapter 7: Migration and winter ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Jean-Luc E. Cartron

    2000-01-01

    The willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in North America, but winters in Central and northern South America. Little specific information is known about migration and wintering ecology of the southwestern willow flycatcher (E. t. extimus) (Yong and Finch 1997). Our report applies principally...

  8. Illuminating wildfire erosion and deposition patterns with repeat terrestrial lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, G.E.; Moody, J.A.; Ebel, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Erosion following a wildfire is much greater than background erosion in forests because of wildfire-induced changes to soil erodibility and water infiltration. While many previous studies have documented post-wildfire erosion with point and small plot-scale measurements, the spatial distribution of post-fire erosion patterns at the watershed scale remains largely unexplored. In this study lidar surveys were collected periodically in a small, first-order drainage basin over a period of 2 years following a wildfire. The study site was relatively steep with slopes ranging from 17° to > 30°. During the study period, several different types of rain storms occurred on the site including low-intensity frontal storms (2.4 mm h−1) and high-intensity convective thunderstorms (79 mm h−1). These storms were the dominant drivers of erosion. Erosion resulting from dry ravel and debris flows was notably absent at the site. Successive lidar surveys were subtracted from one another to obtain digital maps of topographic change between surveys. The results show an evolution in geomorphic response, such that the erosional response after rain storms was strongly influenced by the previous erosional events and pre-fire site morphology. Hillslope and channel roughness increased over time, and the watershed armored as coarse cobbles and boulders were exposed. The erosional response was spatially nonuniform; shallow erosion from hillslopes (87% of the study area) contributed 3 times more sediment volume than erosion from convergent areas (13% of the study area). However, the total normalized erosion depth (volume/area) was highest in convergent areas. From a detailed understanding of the spatial locations of erosion, we made inferences regarding the processes driving erosion. It appears that hillslope erosion is controlled by rain splash (for detachment) and overland flow (for transport and quasi-channelized erosion), with the sites of highest erosion corresponding to locations

  9. LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kurtis J.; Connot, Joel A.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Picotte, Joshua J.

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing

  10. Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

    2009-04-01

    Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological

  11. Integrated forest management to prevent wildfires under Mediterranean environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piermaria Corona

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This review presents a multidisciplinary framework for integrating the ecological, regulatory, procedural and technical aspects of forest management for fires prevention under Mediterranean environments. The aims are to: i provide a foreground of wildfire scenario; ii illustrate the theoretical background of forest fuel management; iii describe the available fuel management techniques and mechanical operations for fire prevention in forest and wildland-urban interfaces, with exemplification of case-studies; iv allocate fire prevention activities under the hierarchy of forest planning. The review is conceived as an outline commentary discussion targeted to professionals, technicians and government personnel involved in forestry and environmental management.

  12. Volcano-ice interactions on Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, C.C.

    1979-01-01

    Central volcanic eruptions beneath terrestrial glaciers have built steep-sided, flat-topped mountains composed of pillow lava, glassy tuff, capping flows, and cones of basalt. Subglacial fissure eruptions produced ridges of similar compostion. In some places the products from a number of subglacial vents have combined to form widespread deposits. The morphologies of these subglacial volcanoes are distinctive enough to allow their recognition at the resolutions characteristic of Viking orbiter imagery. Analogs to terrestrial subglacial volcanoes have been identified on the northern plains and near the south polar cap of Mars. The polar feature provides probable evidence of volcanic eruptions beneath polar ice. A mixed unit of rock and ice is postulated to have overlain portions of the northern plains, with eruptions into this ground ice having produced mountains and ridges analogous to those in Iceland. Subsequent breakdown of this unit due to ice melting revealed the volcanic features. Estimated heights of these landforms indicate that the ice-rich unit once ranged from approximately 100 to 1200 m thick

  13. Three-dimensional stochastic adjustment of volcano geodetic network in Arenal volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, C.; van der Laat, R.; Cattin, P.-H.; Del Potro, R.

    2009-04-01

    Volcano geodetic networks are a key instrument to understanding magmatic processes and, thus, forecasting potentially hazardous activity. These networks are extensively used on volcanoes worldwide and generally comprise a number of different traditional and modern geodetic surveying techniques such as levelling, distances, triangulation and GNSS. However, in most cases, data from the different methodologies are surveyed, adjusted and analysed independently. Experience shows that the problem with this procedure is the mismatch between the excellent correlation of position values within a single technique and the low cross-correlation of such values within different techniques or when the same network is surveyed shortly after using the same technique. Moreover one different independent network for each geodetic surveying technique strongly increase logistics and thus the cost of each measurement campaign. It is therefore important to develop geodetic networks which combine the different geodetic surveying technique, and to adjust geodetic data together in order to better quantify the uncertainties associated to the measured displacements. In order to overcome the lack of inter-methodology data integration, the Geomatic Institute of the University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland (HEIG-VD) has developed a methodology which uses a 3D stochastic adjustment software of redundant geodetic networks, TRINET+. The methodology consists of using each geodetic measurement technique for its strengths relative to other methodologies. Also, the combination of the measurements in a single network allows more cost-effective surveying. The geodetic data are thereafter adjusted and analysed in the same referential frame. The adjustment methodology is based on the least mean square method and links the data with the geometry. Trinet+ also allows to run a priori simulations of the network, hence testing the quality and resolution to be expected for a determined network even

  14. Nuclear winter or nuclear fall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, André

    Climate is universal. If a major modern nuclear war (i.e., with a large number of small-yield weapons) were to happen, it is not even necessary to have a specific part of the world directly involved for there to be cause to worry about the consequences for its inhabitants and their future. Indeed, smoke from fires ignited by the nuclear explosions would be transported by winds all over the world, causing dark and cold. According to the first study, by Turco et al. [1983], air surface temperature over continental areas of the northern mid-latitudes (assumed to be the nuclear war theatre) would fall to winter levels even in summer (hence the term “nuclear winter”) and induce drastic climatic conditions for several months at least. The devastating effects of a nuclear war would thus last much longer than was assumed initially. Discussing to what extent these estimations of long-term impacts on climate are reliable is the purpose of this article.

  15. Volcano hazards in the San Salvador region, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Sofield, D.J.; Escobar, C.D.; Pullinger, C.R.

    2001-01-01

    San Salvador volcano is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador (figure 1). This volcano, having a volume of about 110 cubic kilometers, towers above San Salvador, the country’s capital and largest city. The city has a population of approximately 2 million, and a population density of about 2100 people per square kilometer. The city of San Salvador and other communities have gradually encroached onto the lower flanks of the volcano, increasing the risk that even small events may have serious societal consequences. San Salvador volcano has not erupted for more than 80 years, but it has a long history of repeated, and sometimes violent, eruptions. The volcano is composed of remnants of multiple eruptive centers, and these remnants are commonly referred to by several names. The central part of the volcano, which contains a large circular crater, is known as El Boquerón, and it rises to an altitude of about 1890 meters. El Picacho, the prominent peak of highest elevation (1960 meters altitude) to the northeast of the crater, and El Jabali, the peak to the northwest of the crater, represent remnants of an older, larger edifice. The volcano has erupted several times during the past 70,000 years from vents central to the volcano as well as from smaller vents and fissures on its flanks [1] (numerals in brackets refer to end notes in the report). In addition, several small cinder cones and explosion craters are located within 10 kilometers of the volcano. Since about 1200 A.D., eruptions have occurred almost exclusively along, or a few kilometers beyond, the northwest flank of the volcano, and have consisted primarily of small explosions and emplacement of lava flows. However, San Salvador volcano has erupted violently and explosively in the past, even as recently as 800 years ago. When such eruptions occur again, substantial population and infrastructure will be at risk. Volcanic eruptions are not the only events that present a risk to local

  16. Chemical compositions of lavas from Myoko volcano group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasenaka, Toshiaki; Yoshida, Takeyoshi; Hayatsu, Kenji.

    1995-01-01

    In the volcanic rocks produced in island arc and continental margin arc, the phenomena of magma mixing is observed considerably generally. The research on these phenomena has been carried out also in Japan, and the periodically refilled magma chamber model has been proposed. In this report, the results of the photon activation analysis for the volcanic rock samples of Myoko volcano, for which the magma chamber model that the supply of basalt magma is periodically received was proposed, and of which the age of eruption and the stratigraphy are clearly known, are shown, and the above model is examined together with the published data of fluorescent X-ray analysis and others. The history of activities and the rate of magma extrusion of Myoko volcano group are described. The modal compositions of the volcanic rock samples of Myoko and Kurohime volcanos, for which photon activation analysis was carried out, are shown and discussed. The results of the analysis of the chemical composition of 39 volcanic rock samples from Myoko, Kurohime and Iizuna volcanos are shown. The primary magma in Myoko volcano group, the crystallization differentiation depth and moisture content of magma in Myoko and Kurohime volcanos, the presumption of Felsic and Mafic end-members in R type andesite in Myoko volcano group, and the change of magma composition with lapse of time are described. (K.I.)

  17. Chemical compositions of lavas from Myoko volcano group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasenaka, Toshiaki; Yoshida, Takeyoshi [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Faculty of Science; Hayatsu, Kenji

    1995-08-01

    In the volcanic rocks produced in island arc and continental margin arc, the phenomena of magma mixing is observed considerably generally. The research on these phenomena has been carried out also in Japan, and the periodically refilled magma chamber model has been proposed. In this report, the results of the photon activation analysis for the volcanic rock samples of Myoko volcano, for which the magma chamber model that the supply of basalt magma is periodically received was proposed, and of which the age of eruption and the stratigraphy are clearly known, are shown, and the above model is examined together with the published data of fluorescent X-ray analysis and others. The history of activities and the rate of magma extrusion of Myoko volcano group are described. The modal compositions of the volcanic rock samples of Myoko and Kurohime volcanos, for which photon activation analysis was carried out, are shown and discussed. The results of the analysis of the chemical composition of 39 volcanic rock samples from Myoko, Kurohime and Iizuna volcanos are shown. The primary magma in Myoko volcano group, the crystallization differentiation depth and moisture content of magma in Myoko and Kurohime volcanos, the presumption of Felsic and Mafic end-members in R type andesite in Myoko volcano group, and the change of magma composition with lapse of time are described. (K.I.)

  18. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  19. SAR interferometry applications on active volcanoes. State of the art and perspectives for volcano monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puglisi, G.; Coltelli, M. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Catania (Italy)

    2001-02-01

    In this paper the application of the Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (INSAR) on volcanology is analysed. Since it is not a real novelty among the different applications of INSAR in Earth Observation activities, at the beginning of this paper it is analysed the state of the art of the researches in this field. During the discussion, the point of view of volcanologists is favoured because it is considered that the first applications were often badly aimed. Consequently, the initial INSAR performances in volcanology were overrated with respect to the real capabilities of this technique. This fact lead to discover some unexpected limitations in INSAR usage in volcano monitoring, but, at the same time, spurred on scientists to overcome these drawbacks. The results achieved recently allow to better apply SAR to volcanology; in the paper a possible operative work-plan aimed at introducing INSAR in the volcano monitoring system is presented.

  20. Geologic Map of the Summit Region of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Christina A.; Lockwood, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This report consists of a large map sheet and a pamphlet. The map shows the geology, some photographs, description of map units, and correlation of map units. The pamphlet gives the full text about the geologic map. The area covered by this map includes parts of four U.S. Geological Survey 7.5' topographic quadrangles (Kilauea Crater, Volcano, Ka`u Desert, and Makaopuhi). It encompasses the summit, upper rift zones, and Koa`e Fault System of Kilauea Volcano and a part of the adjacent, southeast flank of Mauna Loa Volcano. The map is dominated by products of eruptions from Kilauea Volcano, the southernmost of the five volcanoes on the Island of Hawai`i and one of the world's most active volcanoes. At its summit (1,243 m) is Kilauea Crater, a 3 km-by-5 km collapse caldera that formed, possibly over several centuries, between about 200 and 500 years ago. Radiating away from the summit caldera are two linear zones of intrusion and eruption, the east and the southwest rift zones. Repeated subaerial eruptions from the summit and rift zones have built a gently sloping, elongate shield volcano covering approximately 1,500 km2. Much of the volcano lies under water; the east rift zone extends 110 km from the summit to a depth of more than 5,000 m below sea level; whereas the southwest rift zone has a more limited submarine continuation. South of the summit caldera, mostly north-facing normal faults and open fractures of the Koa`e Fault System extend between the two rift zones. The Koa`e Fault System is interpreted as a tear-away structure that accommodates southward movement of Kilauea's flank in response to distension of the volcano perpendicular to the rift zones.

  1. Perceptions of Post-Wildfire Landscape Change and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, C. M.; Hall, T. E.; Paveglio, T.; Carroll, M.; Smith, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Considering the dynamic nature of the earth and climate systems and the increasing potential for widespread forest disturbances, it is important to understand the implications of landscape changes, and perceptions of changes, on people's responses to forest disturbances. Understanding how people perceive landscape change over time following forest disturbances helps researchers, land managers, and community leaders identify important biophysical and social characteristics that influence the vulnerability of people who experience forest disturbances, as well as their responses to those disturbances. This poster describes people's perceptions of landscape change following a significant wildfire. The lightning ignited Dahl fire burned 12 miles southeast of Roundup, MT mostly on private land in the summer of June 2012. The fire burned approximately 22,000 acres and destroyed 73 residences. We conducted interviews in the summer of 2013 with more than 40 residents, land managers, emergency personnel, and other stakeholders. While interviews covered several topics, this poster focuses on responses to questions regarding perceptions of short- and long-term landscape change after the fire, including both social and biophysical perspectives. Interviews revealed that people's understanding of the role of wildfires as a natural ecosystem process, as well as their connections with the landscape (i.e., sense of place), were important factors that influenced their perceptions of landscape change after the fire. Many respondents discussed the landscape ';recovering' to pre-fire conditions in longer-term timeframes, such as ';multiple generations.' They often referenced previous wildfires, the Hawk Creek fire (1984) and the Majeras fire (2006), by explaining how parts of the landscape affected by the Dahl fire might compare to certain areas of the previous fires. Variations in recovery expectations were often based on perceptions of the severity of the fire (especially temperature

  2. Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

    2009-11-01

    Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

  3. Assessing wildfire occurrence probability in Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, S.; Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Botequim, B.; Ricardo, A.; Borges, J. G.; Tome, M.; Oliveira, M. M.

    2012-11-01

    Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometrics data from the NFI. Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfires. (Author) 57 refs.

  4. Mount Meager Volcano, Canada: a Case Study for Landslides on Glaciated Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberti, G. L.; Ward, B. C.; van Wyk de Vries, B.; Falorni, G.; Perotti, L.; Clague, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    Mount Meager is a strato-volcano massif in the Northern Cascade Volcanic Arc (Canada) that erupted in 2350 BP, the most recent in Canada. To study the stability of the Massif an international research project between France ( Blaise Pascal University), Italy (University of Turin) and Canada (Simon Fraser University) and private companies (TRE - sensing the planet) has been created. A complex history of glacial loading and unloading, combined with weak, hydrothermally altered rocks has resulted in a long record of catastrophic landslides. The most recent, in 2010 is the third largest (50 x 106 m3) historical landslide in Canada. Mount Meager is a perfect natural laboratory for gravity and topographic processes such as landslide activity, permafrost and glacial dynamics, erosion, alteration and uplift on volcanoes. Research is aided by a rich archive of aerial photos of the Massif (1940s up to 2006): complete coverage approximately every 10 years. This data set has been processed and multi-temporal, high resolution Orthophoto and DSMs (Digital Surface Models) have been produced. On these digital products, with the support on field work, glacial retreat and landslide activity have been tracked and mapped. This has allowed for the inventory of unstable areas, the identification of lava flows and domes, and the general improvement on the geologic knowledge of the massif. InSAR data have been used to monitor the deformation of the pre-2010 failure slope. It will also be used to monitor other unstable slopes that potentially can evolve to catastrophic collapses of up to 1 km3 in volume, endangering local communities downstream the volcano. Mount Meager is definitively an exceptional site for studying the dynamics of a glaciated, uplifted volcano. The methodologies proposed can be applied to other volcanic areas with high erosion rates such as Alaska, Cascades, and the Andes.

  5. 3D electrical conductivity tomography of volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soueid Ahmed, A.; Revil, A.; Byrdina, S.; Coperey, A.; Gailler, L.; Grobbe, N.; Viveiros, F.; Silva, C.; Jougnot, D.; Ghorbani, A.; Hogg, C.; Kiyan, D.; Rath, V.; Heap, M. J.; Grandis, H.; Humaida, H.

    2018-05-01

    Electrical conductivity tomography is a well-established galvanometric method for imaging the subsurface electrical conductivity distribution. We characterize the conductivity distribution of a set of volcanic structures that are different in terms of activity and morphology. For that purpose, we developed a large-scale inversion code named ECT-3D aimed at handling complex topographical effects like those encountered in volcanic areas. In addition, ECT-3D offers the possibility of using as input data the two components of the electrical field recorded at independent stations. Without prior information, a Gauss-Newton method with roughness constraints is used to solve the inverse problem. The roughening operator used to impose constraints is computed on unstructured tetrahedral elements to map complex geometries. We first benchmark ECT-3D on two synthetic tests. A first test using the topography of Mt. St Helens volcano (Washington, USA) demonstrates that we can successfully reconstruct the electrical conductivity field of an edifice marked by a strong topography and strong variations in the resistivity distribution. A second case study is used to demonstrate the versatility of the code in using the two components of the electrical field recorded on independent stations along the ground surface. Then, we apply our code to real data sets recorded at (i) a thermally active area of Yellowstone caldera (Wyoming, USA), (ii) a monogenetic dome on Furnas volcano (the Azores, Portugal), and (iii) the upper portion of the caldera of Kīlauea (Hawai'i, USA). The tomographies reveal some of the major structures of these volcanoes as well as identifying alteration associated with high surface conductivities. We also review the petrophysics underlying the interpretation of the electrical conductivity of fresh and altered volcanic rocks and molten rocks to show that electrical conductivity tomography cannot be used as a stand-alone technique due to the non-uniqueness in

  6. Muon imaging of volcanoes with Cherenkov telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Daniele; Catalano, Osvaldo; Cusumano, Giancarlo; Del Santo, Melania; La Parola, Valentina; La Rosa, Giovanni; Maccarone, Maria Concetta; Mineo, Teresa; Pareschi, Giovanni; Sottile, Giuseppe; Zuccarello, Luciano

    2017-04-01

    The quantitative understanding of the inner structure of a volcano is a key feature to model the processes leading to paroxysmal activity and, hence, to mitigate volcanic hazards. To pursue this aim, different geophysical techniques are utilized, that are sensitive to different properties of the rocks (elastic, electrical, density). In most cases, these techniques do not allow to achieve the spatial resolution needed to characterize the shallowest part of the plumbing system and may require dense measurements in active zones, implying a high level of risk. Volcano imaging through cosmic-ray muons is a promising technique that allows to overcome the above shortcomings. Muons constantly bombard the Earth's surface and can travel through large thicknesses of rock, with an energy loss depending on the amount of crossed matter. By measuring the absorption of muons through a solid body, one can deduce the density distribution inside the target. To date, muon imaging of volcanic structures has been mainly achieved with scintillation detectors. They are sensitive to noise sourced from (i) the accidental coincidence of vertical EM shower particles, (ii) the fake tracks initiated from horizontal high-energy electrons and low-energy muons (not crossing the target) and (iii) the flux of upward going muons. A possible alternative to scintillation detectors is given by Cherenkov telescopes. They exploit the Cherenkov light emitted when charged particles (like muons) travel through a dielectric medium, with velocity higher than the speed of light. Cherenkov detectors are not significantly affected by the above noise sources. Furthermore, contrarily to scintillator-based detectors, Cherenkov telescopes permit a measurement of the energy spectrum of the incident muon flux at the installation site, an issue that is indeed relevant for deducing the density distribution inside the target. In 2014, a prototype Cherenkov telescope was installed at the Astrophysical Observatory of Serra

  7. Large-N in Volcano Settings: Volcanosri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lees, J. M.; Song, W.; Xing, G.; Vick, S.; Phillips, D.

    2014-12-01

    We seek a paradigm shift in the approach we take on volcano monitoring where the compromise from high fidelity to large numbers of sensors is used to increase coverage and resolution. Accessibility, danger and the risk of equipment loss requires that we develop systems that are independent and inexpensive. Furthermore, rather than simply record data on hard disk for later analysis we desire a system that will work autonomously, capitalizing on wireless technology and in field network analysis. To this end we are currently producing a low cost seismic array which will incorporate, at the very basic level, seismological tools for first cut analysis of a volcano in crises mode. At the advanced end we expect to perform tomographic inversions in the network in near real time. Geophone (4 Hz) sensors connected to a low cost recording system will be installed on an active volcano where triggering earthquake location and velocity analysis will take place independent of human interaction. Stations are designed to be inexpensive and possibly disposable. In one of the first implementations the seismic nodes consist of an Arduino Due processor board with an attached Seismic Shield. The Arduino Due processor board contains an Atmel SAM3X8E ARM Cortex-M3 CPU. This 32 bit 84 MHz processor can filter and perform coarse seismic event detection on a 1600 sample signal in fewer than 200 milliseconds. The Seismic Shield contains a GPS module, 900 MHz high power mesh network radio, SD card, seismic amplifier, and 24 bit ADC. External sensors can be attached to either this 24-bit ADC or to the internal multichannel 12 bit ADC contained on the Arduino Due processor board. This allows the node to support attachment of multiple sensors. By utilizing a high-speed 32 bit processor complex signal processing tasks can be performed simultaneously on multiple sensors. Using a 10 W solar panel, second system being developed can run autonomously and collect data on 3 channels at 100Hz for 6 months

  8. Dynamic triggering of volcano drumbeat-like seismicity at the Tatun volcano group in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Cheng-Horng

    2017-07-01

    Periodical seismicity during eruptions has been observed at several volcanoes, such as Mount St. Helens and Soufrière Hills. Movement of magma is often considered one of the most important factors in its generation. Without any magma movement, drumbeat-like (or heartbeat-like) periodical seismicity was detected twice beneath one of the strongest fumarole sites (Dayoukeng) among the Tatun volcano group in northern Taiwan in 2015. Both incidences of drumbeat-like seismicity were respectively started after felt earthquakes in Taiwan, and then persisted for 1-2 d afterward with repetition intervals of ∼18 min between any two adjacent events. The phenomena suggest both drumbeat-like (heartbeat-like) seismicity sequences were likely triggered by dynamic waves generated by the two felt earthquakes. Thus, rather than any involvement of magma, a simplified pumping system within a degassing conduit is proposed to explain the generation of drumbeat-like seismicity. The collapsed rocks within the conduit act as a piston, which was repeatedly lifted up by ascending gas from a deeper reservoir and dropped down when the ascending gas was escaping later. These phenomena show that the degassing process is still very strong in the Tatun volcano group in Taiwan, even though it has been dormant for about several thousand years.

  9. Fire and Fish: Using Radiocarbon And Stratigraphy To Discern The Impact Of Wildfire On Fish Metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffrath, K. R.; Finch, C.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.

    2015-12-01

    Wildfires have profound and variable impacts on erosion, channel morphology, and aquatic habitat. Previous research has quantified post-fire geomorphic response on event and millennial timescales. While these studies have informed our understanding of post-fire geomorphic response during the Holocene, we have yet to fully understand the variability of post-wildfire geomorphic response and how it might change in response to changing climate. Response of aquatic biota is just as variable as post-wildfire response yet we know very little about effects on metapopulations and how management decisions affect aquatic populations. Barriers to movement are installed to isolate native fish populations and prescribed fire and thinning are used to try to reduce future wildfire severity and extent. In order to improve understanding of the implications of management decisions, we evaluated geomorphic response and synchronicity of wildfires over the Holocene relative to the impact to the metapopulation of Bonneville cutthroat trout from a recent wildfire. The Twitchell Canyon fire burned 45,000 acres near Beaver, UT in July 2010. Over 30% of the area burned at high severity, which included two major headwater streams that sustained a trout population. In summer 2011, monsoonal thunderstorms caused massive debris flows and sheetflow erosion that altered channel morphology and aquatic habitat in the burned area. A previously robust, non-native trout fishery was nearly extirpated as a result of the geomorphic response to the wildfire. We used radiocarbon dating of burned material to determine how often headwater streams burned synchronously over the Holocene. Radiocarbon dates are associated with field observations of stratigraphy in order to infer geomorphic response to historic wildfires. Thirty samples were collected from sediment layers in 10 alluvial fans distributed among three watersheds (two burned and one unburned in the 2010 fire). Preliminary results suggest that we

  10. Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E; Harvey, Brian J; Krawchuk, Meg A; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G; Whitlock, Cathy

    2017-05-02

    Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are ( i ) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; ( ii ) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; ( iii ) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and ( iv ) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

  11. Amphibian responses to wildfire in the western united states: Emerging patterns from short-term studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, B.R.; Pilliod, D.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western United States is an important ecological and management issue with direct relevance to amphibian conservation. Although the knowledge of fire effects on amphibians in the region is still limited relative to most other vertebrate species, we reviewed the current literature to determine if there are evident patterns that might be informative for conservation or management strategies. Of the seven studies that compared pre- and post-wildfire data on a variety of metrics, ranging from amphibian occupancy to body condition, two reported positive responses and five detected negative responses by at least one species. Another seven studies used a retrospective approach to compare effects of wildfire on populations: two studies reported positive effects, three reported negative effects from wildfire, and two reported no effects. All four studies that included plethodontid salamanders reported negative effects on populations or individuals; these effects were greater in forests where fire had been suppressed and in areas that burned with high severity. Species that breed in streams are also vulnerable to post-wildfire changes in habitat, especially in the Southwest. Wildfire is also important for maintaining suitable habitat for diverse amphibian communities, although those results may not be evident immediately after an area burns. We expect that wildfire will extirpate few healthy amphibian populations, but it is still unclear how populations will respond to wildfire in the context of land management (including pre- and post-fire timber harvest) and fragmentation. Wildfire may also increase the risk of decline or extirpation for small, isolated, or stressed (e.g., from drought or disease) populations. Improved understanding of how these effects vary according to changes in fire frequency and severity are critical to form more effective conservation strategies for amphibians in the western United States.

  12. Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R; Lowe, Winsor H; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-02-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Application of Wildfire Risk Assessment Results to Wildfire Response Planning in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew P. Thompson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available How wildfires are managed is a key determinant of long-term socioecological resiliency and the ability to live with fire. Safe and effective response to fire requires effective pre-fire planning, which is the main focus of this paper. We review general principles of effective federal fire management planning in the U.S., and introduce a framework for incident response planning consistent with these principles. We contextualize this framework in relation to a wildland fire management continuum based on federal fire management policy in the U.S. The framework leverages recent advancements in spatial wildfire risk assessment—notably the joint concepts of in situ risk and source risk—and integrates assessment results with additional geospatial information to develop and map strategic response zones. We operationalize this framework in a geographic information system (GIS environment based on landscape attributes relevant to fire operations, and define Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations (PODs as the spatial unit of analysis for strategic response. Using results from a recent risk assessment performed on several National Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada area of California, USA, we illustrate how POD-level summaries of risk metrics can reduce uncertainty surrounding potential losses and benefits given large fire occurrence, and lend themselves naturally to design of fire and fuel management strategies. To conclude we identify gaps, limitations, and uncertainties, and prioritize future work to support safe and effective incident response.

  14. Rockfalls, Avalanches and Landslides at Augustine Volcano, 2003-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deroin, N.; McNutt, S. R.; Reyes, C.; Sentman, D. D.

    2006-12-01

    Rockfalls, avalanches, and landslides have been frequently recorded in seismic data at Augustine Volcano for many years. Typical years, such as 2003 or 2004, had several dozen such events that were strong enough to trigger the automatic event detection system. Seventeen rockfalls occurred in 2003, mostly in late summer when air temperatures were highest. In 2004, 28 events occurred -- also in late summer. Typical events lasted about 30 sec, had frequencies greater than 6 Hz, and were well recorded on summit stations, suggesting that they were rockfalls from the steep summit dome into the adjacent moat area. In 2005, both the rate and the occurrence pattern changed. Rockfall activity began in April 2006 and continued through fall and early winter, after peaking in May and June. Overall there were more than 340 rockfalls in 2005, including both small and large events. The 2005 rockfall activity increased at nearly the same time as both earthquake activity and ground heating, suggesting that higher temperatures and steaming contributed to mechanical instabilities of the surface dome rocks. We examined relative amplitudes and frequency contents at station pairs to determine relative locations of the rockfalls by assuming both higher amplitudes and higher frequencies are associated with events closer to a given station. When a low-light camera was installed at Augustine in January 2006, we were able to confirm these relations because of the clear correlation between rockfalls, debris flows, and pyroclastic flows to the east (towards the camera) and higher amplitudes and frequencies at east station AUE. Other events had higher amplitudes and frequencies at west station AUW with no material seen moving eastward. Still other events moved towards the north, with amplitudes being nearly equivalent at both AUE and AUW. Compound events also occurred, with mass flow in several directions simultaneously. As the new steep-sided and unstable dome grew in spring 2006, rockfalls and

  15. The Impact of CO2-Driven Vegetation Changes on Wildfire Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, C. B.; Poulsen, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    While wildfires are a key component of natural ecological restoration and succession, they also pose tremendous risks to human life, health, and property. Wildfire frequency is expected to increase in many regions as the radiative effects of elevated CO2 drive warmer surface air temperatures, earlier spring snow melt, and more frequent meteorological drought. However, high CO2 concentrations will also directly impact vegetation growth and physiology, potentially altering wildfire characteristics through changes in fuel amount and surface hydrology. Depending on the biome and time of year, these vegetation-driven responses may mitigate or enhance radiative-driven wildfire changes. In this study, we use a suite of earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 with active biogeophysics and biogeochemistry to understand how the vegetation response to high CO2 (CO2 quadrupling) contributes to future changes in wildfire risk across the globe. Across the models, projected CO2 fertilization enhances aboveground biomass (about a 30% leaf area index (LAI) increase averaged across the globe) during the spring and summer months, increasing the availability of wildfire fuel across all biomes. Despite greater LAI, models robustly project widespread reductions in summer season transpiration (about -15% averaged across the globe) in response to reduced stomatal conductance from CO2 physiological forcing. Reduced transpiration warms summer season near surface temperatures and lowers relative humidity across vegetated regions of the mid-to-high latitudes, heightening the risk of wildfire occurrence. However, as transpiration goes down in response to greater plant water use efficiency, a larger fraction of soil water remains in the soil, potentially halting the spread of wildfires in some regions. Given the myriad ways in which the vegetation response to CO2 may alter wildfire risk, and the robustness of the responses across models, an explicit simulation of

  16. Deep magma transport at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, T.L.; Klein, F.W.

    2006-01-01

    The shallow part of Kilauea's magma system is conceptually well-understood. Long-period and short-period (brittle-failure) earthquake swarms outline a near-vertical magma transport path beneath Kilauea's summit to 20 km depth. A gravity high centered above the magma transport path demonstrates that Kilauea's shallow magma system, established early in the volcano's history, has remained fixed in place. Low seismicity at 4-7 km outlines a storage region from which magma is supplied for eruptions and intrusions. Brittle-failure earthquake swarms shallower than 5 km beneath the rift zones accompany dike emplacement. Sparse earthquakes extend to a decollement at 10-12 km along which the south flank of Kilauea is sliding seaward. This zone below 5 km can sustain aseismic magma transport, consistent with recent tomographic studies. Long-period earthquake clusters deeper than 40 km occur parallel to and offshore of Kilauea's south coast, defining the deepest seismic response to magma transport from the Hawaiian hot spot. A path connecting the shallow and deep long-period earthquakes is defined by mainshock-aftershock locations of brittle-failure earthquakes unique to Kilauea whose hypocenters are deeper than 25 km with magnitudes from 4.4 to 5.2. Separation of deep and shallow long-period clusters occurs as the shallow plumbing moves with the volcanic edifice, while the deep plumbing is centered over the hotspot. Recent GPS data agrees with the volcano-propagation vector from Kauai to Maui, suggesting that Pacific plate motion, azimuth 293.5?? and rate of 7.4 cm/yr, has been constant over Kilauea's lifetime. However, volcano propagation on the island of Hawaii, azimuth 325??, rate 13 cm/yr, requires southwesterly migration of the locus of melting within the broad hotspot. Deep, long-period earthquakes lie west of the extrapolated position of Kilauea backward in time along a plate-motion vector, requiring southwesterly migration of Kilauea's magma source. Assumed ages of 0

  17. Space Radar Image of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    This is a deformation map of the south flank of Kilauea volcano on the big island of Hawaii, centered at 19.5 degrees north latitude and 155.25 degrees west longitude. The map was created by combining interferometric radar data -- that is data acquired on different passes of the space shuttle which are then overlayed to obtain elevation information -- acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar during its first flight in April 1994 and its second flight in October 1994. The area shown is approximately 40 kilometers by 80 kilometers (25 miles by 50 miles). North is toward the upper left of the image. The colors indicate the displacement of the surface in the direction that the radar instrument was pointed (toward the right of the image) in the six months between images. The analysis of ground movement is preliminary, but appears consistent with the motions detected by the Global Positioning System ground receivers that have been used over the past five years. The south flank of the Kilauea volcano is among the most rapidly deforming terrains on Earth. Several regions show motions over the six-month time period. Most obvious is at the base of Hilina Pali, where 10 centimeters (4 inches) or more of crustal deformation can be seen in a concentrated area near the coastline. On a more localized scale, the currently active Pu'u O'o summit also shows about 10 centimeters (4 inches) of change near the vent area. Finally, there are indications of additional movement along the upper southwest rift zone, just below the Kilauea caldera in the image. Deformation of the south flank is believed to be the result of movements along faults deep beneath the surface of the volcano, as well as injections of magma, or molten rock, into the volcano's 'plumbing' system. Detection of ground motions from space has proven to be a unique capability of imaging radar technology. Scientists hope to use deformation data acquired by SIR-C/X-SAR and future imaging

  18. Element fluxes from Copahue Volcano, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varekamp, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    Copahue volcano in Argentina has an active volcano-magmatic hydrothermal system that emits fluids with pH=0.3 that feed a river system. River flux measurements and analytical data provide element flux data from 1997 to 2003, which includes the eruptive period of July to December 2000. The fluids have up to 6.5 percent sulfate, 1 percent Cl and ppm levels of B, As, Cu, Zn and Pb. The hydrothermal system acts as a perfect scrubber for magmatic gases during the periods of passive degassing, although the dissolved magmatic gases are modified through water rock interaction and mineral precipitation. The magmatic SO2 disproportionates into sulfate and liquid elemental sulfur at about 300 C; the sulfate is discharged with the fluids, whereas the liquid sulfur is temporarily retained in the reservoir but ejected during phreatic and hydrothermal eruptions. The intrusion and chemical attack of new magma in the hydrothermal reservoir in early 2000 was indicated by strongly increased Mg concentrations and Mg fluxes, and higher Mg/Cl and Mg/K values. The hydrothermal discharge has acidified a large glacial lake (0.5 km3) to pH=2 and the lake effluents acidify the exiting river. Even more than 100 km downstream, the effects of acid pulses from the lake are evident from red coated boulders and fish die-offs. The river-bound sulfate fluxes from the system range from 70 to 200 kilotonnes/year. The equivalent SO2 output of the whole volcanic system ranges from 150 to 500 tonnes/day, which includes the fraction of native sulfur that formed inside the mountain but does not include the release of SO2 into the atmosphere during the eruptions. Trace element fluxes of the river will be scaled up and compared with global element fluxes from meteoric river waters (subterranean volcanic weathering versus watershed weathering).

  19. Geomechanical rock properties of a basaltic volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren N Schaefer

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In volcanic regions, reliable estimates of mechanical properties for specific volcanic events such as cyclic inflation-deflation cycles by magmatic intrusions, thermal stressing, and high temperatures are crucial for building accurate models of volcanic phenomena. This study focuses on the challenge of characterizing volcanic materials for the numerical analyses of such events. To do this, we evaluated the physical (porosity, permeability and mechanical (strength properties of basaltic rocks at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala through a variety of laboratory experiments, including: room temperature, high temperature (935 °C, and cyclically-loaded uniaxial compressive strength tests on as-collected and thermally-treated rock samples. Knowledge of the material response to such varied stressing conditions is necessary to analyze potential hazards at Pacaya, whose persistent activity has led to 13 evacuations of towns near the volcano since 1987. The rocks show a non-linear relationship between permeability and porosity, which relates to the importance of the crack network connecting the vesicles in these rocks. Here we show that strength not only decreases with porosity and permeability, but also with prolonged stressing (i.e., at lower strain rates and upon cooling. Complimentary tests in which cyclic episodes of thermal or load stressing showed no systematic weakening of the material on the scale of our experiments. Most importantly, we show the extremely heterogeneous nature of volcanic edifices that arise from differences in porosity and permeability of the local lithologies, the limited lateral extent of lava flows, and the scars of previous collapse events. Input of these process-specific rock behaviors into slope stability and deformation models can change the resultant hazard analysis. We anticipate that an increased parameterization of rock properties will improve mitigation power.

  20. Ash and Steam, Soufriere Hills Volcano, Monserrat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    International Space Station crew members are regularly alerted to dynamic events on the Earth's surface. On request from scientists on the ground, the ISS crew observed and recorded activity from the summit of Soufriere Hills on March 20, 2002. These two images provide a context view of the island (bottom) and a detailed view of the summit plume (top). When the images were taken, the eastern side of the summit region experienced continued lava growth, and reports posted on the Smithsonian Institution's Weekly Volcanic Activity Report indicate that 'large (50-70 m high), fast-growing, spines developed on the dome's summit. These spines periodically collapsed, producing pyroclastic flows down the volcano's east flank that sometimes reached the Tar River fan. Small ash clouds produced from these events reached roughly 1 km above the volcano and drifted westward over Plymouth and Richmond Hill. Ash predominately fell into the sea. Sulfur dioxide emission rates remained high. Theodolite measurements of the dome taken on March 20 yielded a dome height of 1,039 m.' Other photographs by astronauts of Montserrat have been posted on the Earth Observatory: digital photograph number ISS002-E-9309, taken on July 9, 2001; and a recolored and reprojected version of the same image. Digital photograph numbers ISS004-E-8972 and 8973 were taken 20 March, 2002 from Space Station Alpha and were provided by the Earth Sciences and Image Analysis Laboratory at Johnson Space Center. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA-JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.

  1. Antarctic volcanoes: A remote but significant hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Adelina; Martí, Alex; Folch, Arnau; Giralt, Santiago

    2017-04-01

    Ash emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over massive areas of the globe, posing a threat to both human health and infrastructures, such as the air traffic. Some of the last eruptions occurred during this decade (e.g. 14/04/2010 - Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland; 24/05/2011-Grímsvötn, Iceland; 05/06/2011-Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Chile) have strongly affected the air traffic in different areas of the world, leading to economic losses of billions of euros. From the tens of volcanoes located in Antarctica, at least nine are known to be active and five of them have reported volcanic activity in historical times. However, until now, no attention has been paid to the possible social, economical and environmental consequences of an eruption that would occur on high southern latitudes, perhaps because it is considered that its impacts would be minor or local, and mainly restricted to the practically inhabited Antarctic continent. We show here, as a case study and using climate models, how volcanic ash emitted during a regular eruption of one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica, Deception Island (South Shetland Islands), could reach the African continent as well as Australia and South America. The volcanic cloud could strongly affect the air traffic not only in the region and at high southern latitudes, but also the flights connecting Africa, South America and Oceania. Results obtained are crucial to understand the patterns of volcanic ash distribution at high southern latitudes with obvious implications for tephrostratigraphical and chronological studies that provide valuable isochrones with which to synchronize palaeoclimate records. This research was partially funded by the MINECO grants VOLCLIMA (CGL2015-72629-EXP)and POSVOLDEC(CTM2016-79617-P)(AEI/FEDER, UE), the Ramón y Cajal research program (RYC-2012-11024) and the NEMOH European project (REA grant 34 agreement n° 289976).

  2. Magma supply, storage, and transport at shield-stage Hawaiian volcanoes: Chapter 5 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Miklius, Asta; Montgomery-Brown, Emily K.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    The characteristics of magma supply, storage, and transport are among the most critical parameters governing volcanic activity, yet they remain largely unconstrained because all three processes are hidden beneath the surface. Hawaiian volcanoes, particularly Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, offer excellent prospects for studying subsurface magmatic processes, owing to their accessibility and frequent eruptive and intrusive activity. In addition, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, founded in 1912, maintains long records of geological, geophysical, and geochemical data. As a result, Hawaiian volcanoes have served as both a model for basaltic volcanism in general and a starting point for many studies of volcanic processes.

  3. Advanced decision support for winter road maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    This document provides an overview of the Federal Highway Administration's winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS is a decision support tool that has the ability to provide weather predictions focused toward the road surface. The...

  4. Overview of climatic effects of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.; Malone, R.C.

    1985-01-01

    A general description of the climatic effects of a nuclear war are presented. This paper offers a short history of the subject, a discussion of relevant parameters and physical processes, and a description of plausible nuclear winter scenario. 9 refs

  5. Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  6. One hundred years of volcano monitoring in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauahikaua, Jim; Poland, Mike

    2012-01-01

    In 2012 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the oldest of five volcano observatories in the United States, is commemorating the 100th anniversary of its founding. HVO's location, on the rim of Kilauea volcano (Figure 1)—one of the most active volcanoes on Earth—has provided an unprecedented opportunity over the past century to study processes associated with active volcanism and develop methods for hazards assessment and mitigation. The scientifically and societally important results that have come from 100 years of HVO's existence are the realization of one man's vision of the best way to protect humanity from natural disasters. That vision was a response to an unusually destructive decade that began the twentieth century, a decade that saw almost 200,000 people killed by the effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

  7. The Active Lava Flows of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    'lahar' is from Indonesia, a country with some of the most active and destructive volcanoes .... tourist-dependent businesses such as airlines, rental car compa- nies, and hotels. ... excellent viewing conditions and photo opportunities. The heat.

  8. Vegetation damage and recovery after Chiginagak Volcano Crater drainage event

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — From August 20 — 23, 2006, I revisited Chiginigak volcano to document vegetation recovery after the crater drainage event that severely damaged vegetation in May of...

  9. Physico-Chemical Evolution of Organic Aerosol from Wildfire Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croteau, P.; Jathar, S.; Akherati, A.; Galang, A.; Tarun, S.; Onasch, T. B.; Lewane, L.; Herndon, S. C.; Roscioli, J. R.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Fortner, E.; Xu, W.; Daube, C.; Knighton, W. B.; Werden, B.; Wood, E.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfires are the largest combustion-related source of carbonaceous emissions to the atmosphere; these include direct emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosol (POA) and semi-volatile, intermediate-volatility, and volatile organic compounds (SVOCs, IVOCs, and VOCs). However, there are large uncertainties surrounding the evolution of these carbonaceous emissions as they are physically and chemically transformed in the atmosphere. To understand these transformations, we performed sixteen experiments using an environmental chamber to simulate day- and night-time chemistry of gas- and aerosol-phase emissions from 6 different fuels at the Fire Laboratory in Missoula, MT. Across the test matrix, the experiments simulated 2 to 8 hours of equivalent day-time aging (with the hydroxyl radical and ozone) or several hours of night-time aging (with the nitrate radical). Aging resulted in an average organic aerosol (OA) mass enhancement of 28% although the full range of OA mass enhancements varied between -10% and 254%. These enhancement findings were consistent with chamber and flow reactor experiments performed at the Fire Laboratory in 2010 and 2012 but, similar to previous studies, offered no evidence to link the OA mass enhancement to fuel type or oxidant exposure. Experiments simulating night-time aging resulted in an average OA mass enhancement of 10% and subsequent day-time aging resulted in a decrease in OA mass of 8%. While small, for the first time, these experiments highlighted the continuous nature of the OA evolution as the wildfire smoke cycled through night- and day-time processes. Ongoing work is focussed on (i) quantifying bulk compositional changes in OA, (ii) comparing the near-field aging simulated in this work with far-field aging simulated during the same campaign (via a mini chamber and flow tube) and (iii) integrating wildfire smoke aging datasets over the past decade to examine the relationship between OA mass enhancement ratios, modified

  10. Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieradzik, Lars Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep G.; Smith, Ben

    2017-04-01

    Wildfires and their emissions are key biospheric processes in the modeling of the carbon cycle that still are insufficiently understood. In Australia, fire emissions constitute a large flux of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere of approximately 1.3 times larger than the annual fossil fuel emissions. In addition, fire plays a big role in determining the composition of vegetation which in turn affects land-atmosphere fluxes. Annualy, up to 4% of the vegetated land-surface area is burned which amounts to up to 3% of global NPP and results in the reslease of about 2 Pg carbon into the atmosphere. There are indications that burned area has decreased globally over recent decades but so far there is not a clear trend in the development in fire-intensity and fuel availability. Net emissions from wildfires are not generally included in global and regional carbon budgets, because it is assumed that gross fire emissions are in balance with post-fire carbon uptake by recovering vegetation. This is a valid assumption as long as climate and fire regimes are in equilibrium, but not when the climate and other drivers are changing. We present a study on the behaviour of wildfires on the Australian continent over the last century (1911 - 2012) introducing the novel fire model BLAZE (BLAZe induced biosphere-atmosphere flux Estimator) that has been designed to address the feedbacks between climate, fuel loads, and fires. BLAZE is used within the Australian land-surface model CABLE (Community Atmophere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). The study shows two significant outcomes: A regional shift in fire patterns shift during this century due to fire suppression and greening effects as well as an increase of potential fire-line intensity (the risk that a fire becomes more intense), especially in regions where most of Australia's population resides. This strongly emphasises the need to further investigate fire dynamics under future climate scenarios. The fire model BLAZE has been

  11. Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires in the Northern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heel, Michael; Sass, Oliver; Friedmann, Arne; Wetzel, Karl-Friedrich

    2010-05-01

    Wildfires in the northern Alps are rare compared to e.g. the Mediterranean region. However, fires occurring on the dry, south-exposed slopes of the inner-alpine valleys can constitute a significant disturbance of the ecosystems in the sub-alpine belt. We reconstructed the younger regional wildfire history (last few centuries) of a part of the the Northern Limestone Alps using chronicles, forestry and fire brigade records as well as historical pictures (postcards, aerial photos etc.), local names and interviews with local people. The long-term fire frequency was investigated using mire drillings, charcoal in soils and dendrochronology. In the surrounding of the Karwendel, Wetterstein and Mieminger Mountains we have identified c. 400 forest fires to date. The earliest detected fire dates to more than 2900 years; the largest one (in 1705) affected an area of several thousand hectares. Approximately 90% of the fires are man-made (negligence, arson, railway) which explains the concentration on the south-exposed slopes of the densely populated Inn valley. Most of the larger fires take place in the altitudinal belt between 1400 and 1900 m a.s.l.; apart from very few exceptions, they are restricted to southerly orientations. Locally, mean recurrence intervals of 200-300 years occur which is similar to e.g. boreal forests in Canada. We observed a strong seasonality with 40% of the fires occurring in spring and 30% in summer. There is a weak correlation with the weather conditions in the one or two weeks before the fire with dry periods promoting wildfire ignition and burnt area size; however, there are many exceptions from the rule. The 1940ies stands out for more than twice as much fires than in all other decades which is both due to climatic and anthropogenic causes. Today, there is an apparent trend towards more frequent and smaller fires. The frequency is biased by the multitude of available documentation today (e.g. websites of fire brigades), while the decreasing size

  12. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert)

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  13. Coming to grips with nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherr, S.J.

    1985-01-01

    This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange

  14. Barriers to wheelchair use in the winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripat, Jacquie D; Brown, Cara L; Ethans, Karen D

    2015-06-01

    To test the hypothesis that challenges to community participation posed by winter weather are greater for individuals who use scooters, manual and power wheelchairs (wheeled mobility devices [WMDs]) than for the general ambulatory population, and to determine what WMD users identify as the most salient environmental barriers to community participation during the winter. Cross-sectional survey organized around 5 environmental domains: technological, natural, physical, social/attitudinal, and policy. Urban community in Canada. Convenience sample of WMD users or their proxy (N=99). Not applicable. Not applicable. Forty-two percent identified reduced outing frequency in winter months, associated with increased age (χ(3)=6.4, P=.04), lack of access to family/friends for transportation (χ(2)=8.1, P=.04), and primary type of WMD used in the winter (scooter χ(2)=8.8, P=.003). Most reported tires/casters becoming stuck in the snow (95%) or slipping on the ice (91%), difficulty ascending inclines/ramps (92%), and cold hands while using controls or pushing rims (85%); fewer identified frozen wheelchair/scooter batteries, seat cushions/backrests, or electronics. Sidewalks/roads were reported to be problematic by 99%. Eighty percent reported needing additional help in the winter. Limited community access in winter led to a sense of loneliness/isolation, and fear/anxiety related to safety. Respondents identified policies that limited participation during winter. People who use WMDs decrease their community participation in cold weather because of multiple environmental barriers. Clinicians, researchers, and policymakers can take a multidimensional approach to mitigate these barriers in order to enhance community participation by WMD users in winter. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Penguin Bank: A Loa-Trend Hawaiian Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, G.; Blichert-Toft, J.; Clague, D. A.; Cousens, B.; Frey, F. A.; Moore, J. G.

    2007-12-01

    Hawaiian volcanoes along the Hawaiian Ridge from Molokai Island in the northwest to the Big Island in the southeast, define two parallel trends of volcanoes known as the Loa and Kea spatial trends. In general, lavas erupted along these two trends have distinctive geochemical characteristics that have been used to define the spatial distribution of geochemical heterogeneities in the Hawaiian plume (e.g., Abouchami et al., 2005). These geochemical differences are well established for the volcanoes forming the Big Island. The longevity of the Loa- Kea geochemical differences can be assessed by studying East and West Molokai volcanoes and Penguin Bank which form a volcanic ridge perpendicular to the Loa and Kea spatial trends. Previously we showed that East Molokai volcano (~1.5 Ma) is exclusively Kea-like and that West Molokai volcano (~1.8 Ma) includes lavas that are both Loa- and Kea-like (Xu et al., 2005 and 2007).The submarine Penguin Bank (~2.2 Ma), probably an independent volcano constructed west of West Molokai volcano, should be dominantly Loa-like if the systematic Loa and Kea geochemical differences were present at ~2.2 Ma. We have studied 20 samples from Penguin Bank including both submarine and subaerially-erupted lavas recovered by dive and dredging. All lavas are tholeiitic basalt representing shield-stage lavas. Trace element ratios, such as Sr/Nb and Zr/Nb, and isotopic ratios of Sr and Nd clearly are Loa-like. On an ɛNd-ɛHf plot, Penguin Bank lavas fall within the field defined by Mauna Loa lavas. Pb isotopic data lie near the Loa-Kea boundary line defined by Abouchami et al. (2005). In conclusion, we find that from NE to SW, i.e., perpendicular to the Loa and Kea spatial trend, there is a shift from Kea-like East Molokai lavas to Loa-like Penguin Bank lavas with the intermediate West Molokai volcano having lavas with both Loa- and Kea-like geochemical features. Therefore, the Loa and Kea geochemical dichotomy exhibited by Big Island volcanoes

  16. Winter Dew Harvest in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arias-Torres Jorge Ernesto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents experimental and theoretical results of winter dew harvest in México City in terms of condensation rate. A simplified theoretical model based on a steady-state energy balance on a radiator-condenser was fitted, as a function of the ambient temperature, the relative humidity and the wind velocity. A glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted were used as samples over the outdoor experiments. A good correlation was obtained between the theoretical and experimental data. The experimental results show that there was condensation in 68% of the winter nights on both condensers. The total winter condensed mass was 2977 g/m2 and 2888 g/m2 on the glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted, respectively. Thus, the condensed mass on the glass was only 3% higher than that on the painted surface. The maximum nightly dew harvests occurred during December, which linearly reduced from 50 g/m2 night to 22 g/m2 night as the winter months went by. The condensation occurred from 1:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., with maximum condensation rates between 6:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. The dew harvest can provide a partial alternative to the winter water shortage in certain locations with similar climates to the winter in Mexico City, as long as pollution is not significant.

  17. Volcano-hydrothermal energy research at white Island, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allis, R.G.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the White Island (New Zealand) volcano-hydrothermal research project by the N.Z. DSIR and the Geological Survey of Japan, which is investigating the coupling between magmatic and geothermal systems. The first phase of this investigation is a geophysical survey of the crater floor of the andesite volcano, White Island during 1991/1992, to be followed by drilling from the crater floor into the hydrothermal system. (TEC). 4 figs., 8 refs

  18. Geochemical signatures of tephras from Quaternary Antarctic Peninsula volcanoes

    OpenAIRE

    Kraus,Stefan; Kurbatov,Andrei; Yates,Martin

    2013-01-01

    In the northern Antarctic Peninsula area, at least 12 Late Plelstocene-Holocene volcanic centers could be potential sources of tephra layers in the region. We present unique geochemical fingerprints for ten of these volcanoes using major, trace, rare earth element, and isotope data from 95 samples of tephra and other eruption products. The volcanoes have predominantly basaltic and basaltic andesitic compositions. The Nb/Y ratio proves useful to distinguish between volcanic centers located on ...

  19. Estimates of elastic plate thicknesses beneath large volcanos on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgovern, Patrick J.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1992-01-01

    Megellan radar imaging and topography data are now available for a number of volcanos on Venus greater than 100 km in radius. These data can be examined to reveal evidence of the flexural response of the lithosphere to the volcanic load. On Earth, flexure beneath large hotspot volcanos results in an annual topographic moat that is partially to completely filled in by sedimentation and mass wasting from the volcano's flanks. On Venus, erosion and sediment deposition are considered to be negligible at the resolution of Magellan images. Thus, it may be possible to observe evidence of flexure by the ponding of recent volcanic flows in the moat. We also might expect to find topographic signals from unfilled moats surrounding large volcanos on Venus, although these signals may be partially obscured by regional topography. Also, in the absence of sedimentation, tectonic evidence of deformation around large volcanos should be evident except where buried by very young flows. We use analytic solutions in axisymmetric geometry for deflections and stresses resulting from loading of a plate overlying an inviscid fluid. Solutions for a set of disk loads are superimposed to obtain a solution for a conical volcano. The deflection of the lithosphere produces an annular depression or moat, the extent of which can be estimated by measuring the distance from the volcano's edge to the first zero crossing or to the peak of the flexural arch. Magellan altimetry data records (ARCDRs) from data cycle 1 are processed using the GMT mapping and graphics software to produce topographic contour maps of the volcanos. We then take topographic profiles that cut across the annular and ponded flows seen on the radar images. By comparing the locations of these flows to the predicted moat locations from a range of models, we estimate the elastic plate thickness that best fits the observations, together with the uncertainty in that estimate.

  20. New winter hardy winter bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. Voloshkova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л. М. Голик

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Creation of Initial raw for breeding of winter wheat by change of the development type under low temperatures influence was described. Seeds of spring wheat were vernalized in aluminum weighting bottle. By using low temperatures at sawing of M2-6 at the begin ind of optimal terms of sawing of winter wheat, new winter-hardy variety of Voloshkova was bred.

  1. Recent Seismicity in the Ceboruco Volcano, Western Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, D.; Chávez-Méndez, M. I.; Nuñez-Cornu, F. J.; Sandoval, J. M.; Rodriguez-Ayala, N. A.; Trejo-Gomez, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Ceboruco volcano is the largest (2280 m.a.s.l) of several volcanoes along the Tepic-Zacoalco rift zone in Nayarit state (Mexico). During the last 1000 years, this volcano had effusive-explosive episodes with eight eruptions providing an average of one eruption each 125 years. Since the last eruption occurred in 1870, 147 years ago, a new eruption likelihood is really high and dangerous due to nearby population centers, important roads and lifelines that traverse the volcano's slopes. This hazards indicates the importance of monitoring the seismicity associated with the Ceboruco volcano whose ongoing activity is evidenced by fumaroles and earthquakes. During 2003 and 2008, this region was registered by just one Lennartz Marslite seismograph featuring a Lennartz Le3D sensor (1 Hz) [Rodríguez Uribe et al. (2013)] where they observed that seismicity rates and stresses appear to be increasing indicating higher levels of activity within the volcano. Until July 2017, a semi-permanent network with three Taurus (Nanometrics) and one Q330 Quanterra (Kinemetrics) digitizers with Lennartz 3Dlite sensors of 1 Hz natural frequency was registering in the area. In this study, we present the most recent seismicity obtained by the semi-permanent network and a temporary network of 21 Obsidians 4X and 8X (Kinemetrics) covering an area of 16 km x 16 km with one station every 2.5-3 km recording from November 2016 to July 2017.

  2. Carbon sequestration from boreal wildfires via Pyrogenic Carbon production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santin, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan; Preston, Caroline

    2014-05-01

    Fire releases important quantities of carbon (C) to the atmosphere. Every year, an average of 460 Million ha burn around the globe, generating C emissions equivalent to a third of the current annual contribution from fossil fuel combustion. Over the longer-term wildfires are widely considered as 'net zero C emission events', because C emissions from fires, excluding those associated with deforestation and peatland fires, are balanced by C uptake by regenerating vegetation. This 'zero C emission' scenario, however, may be flawed, as it does not consider the production of pyrogenic C (PyC). During fire, part of the biomass C burnt is emitted to the atmosphere but part is transformed into PyC (i.e. charcoal). The enhanced resistance of PyC to environmental degradation compared to unburnt biomass gives it the potential to sequester C over the medium/long term. Therefore, after complete regeneration of the vegetation, the PyC generated may represent an additional C pool and, hence, recurring fire-regrowth cycles could represent net sinks of atmospheric C. To estimate the quantitative importance of PyC production, accurate data on PyC generation with respect to the fuel combusted are needed. Unfortunately, detailed quantification of fuel prior to fire is normally only available for prescribed and experimental fires, which are usually of low-intensity and therefore not representative of higher-intensity wildfires. Furthermore, what little data is available is usually based on only a specific fraction of the PyC present following burning rather than the whole range of PyC products and pools (i.e. PyC in soil, ash, downed wood and standing vegetation). To address this research gap, we utilized the globally unique FireSmart experimental forest fires in Northwest Canada. They are aimed to reproduce wildfire conditions typical for boreal forest and, at the same time, allow pre-fire fuel assessment, fire behaviour monitoring and immediate post-fire fuel and PyC inventory. This

  3. The Central Pine Barrens of Long Island, New York - Steps to improve community preparedness for wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel Hudson; Kristen Nelson; Erika Lang

    2004-01-01

    This handout provides cooperators and high fire risk communities in the area in and around the central pine barrens of Long Island, New York examples of steps to take to increase wildfire preparedness.

  4. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, Volker C; Helmers, David P; Kramer, H Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H; Alexandre, Patricia M; Bar-Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D; Stewart, Susan I

    2018-03-27

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

  5. Nesting ecology of grassland birds following a wildfire in the southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Anthony J.; Boal, Clint W.; Whitlaw, Heather A.

    2017-01-01

    We studied the response of nesting grassland birds occupying short-grass and mixed-grass prairie sites 2 and 3 y following two, large-scale wildfires that burned ≥360,000 ha in the Texas Panhandle in March 2006. Nest success was greater on burned plots compared to unburned plots, though this varied by species and year. Woody vegetation cover was greater around nests on unburned plots compared to burned plots for Cassin's sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) and lark sparrow (Chondestes grammacus). Cassin's sparrows and lark sparrows nested in more-woody vegetation than did grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum), and woody vegetation was reduced following the wildfires. The wildfires appear to have had few if any negative influences on the avian community 3 years postfire. This may be due to grassland breeding birds being adapted to landscapes in which, historically, periodic disturbance (e.g., wildfire, intensive grazing by bison [Bison bison]) resulted in vegetation heterogeneity.

  6. Wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for central Catalonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín J. Alcasena

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We provide 40 m resolution wildfire spread, hazard and exposure metric raster grids for the 0.13 million ha fire-prone Bages County in central Catalonia (northeastern Spain corresponding to node influence grid (NIG, crown fraction burned (CFB and fire transmission to residential houses (TR. Fire spread and behavior data (NIG, CFB and fire perimeters were generated with fire simulation modeling considering wildfire season extreme fire weather conditions (97th percentile. Moreover, CFB was also generated for prescribed fire (Rx mild weather conditions. The TR smoothed grid was obtained with a geospatial analysis considering large fire perimeters and individual residential structures located within the study area. We made these raster grids available to assist in the optimization of wildfire risk management plans within the study area and to help mitigate potential losses from catastrophic events. Keywords: Catalonia, Wildfire exposure, Fire transmission, Crown fire activity, Prescribed fires

  7. Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2018-03-01

    Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

  8. Petrologic insights into basaltic volcanism at historically active Hawaiian volcanoes: Chapter 6 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helz, Rosalind L.; Clague, David A.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Thornber, Carl R.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Study of the petrology of Hawaiian volcanoes, in particular the historically active volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i, has long been of worldwide scientific interest. When Dr. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., established the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) in 1912, detailed observations on basaltic activity at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes increased dramatically. The period from 1912 to 1958 saw a gradual increase in the collection and analysis of samples from the historical eruptions of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa and development of the concepts needed to evaluate them. In a classic 1955 paper, Howard Powers introduced the concepts of magnesia variation diagrams, to display basaltic compositions, and olivine-control lines, to distinguish between possibly comagmatic and clearly distinct basaltic lineages. In particular, he and others recognized that Kīlauea and Mauna Loa basalts must have different sources.

  9. Preventing erosive risks after wildfire in Spain: advances and gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José A.; Fontúrbel Lliteras, Teresa

    2017-04-01

    Galicia (NW Spain) is one of the most wildfire-affected areas in Western Europe and where the highest soil losses following fire are recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last decade, mitigation of hydrological and erosive risk has been an important objective for researchers and forest managers. For this reason, research carried out has focused on three main issues: i) the development of operational tools to prioritize post-fire soil stabilization actions, based on soil burn severity indicators and remote sensed information, and testing of their ability to reflect degradation risk in relevant soil properties and subsequent soil erosion, ii) the development and testing of different soil stabilization treatments and their effectiveness for reducing erosion, following their application at broad scale, under the specific environmental conditions of Galicia and iii) the assessment of the performance of current erosion models as well as the development of empirical models to predict post-fire soil losses. On the other hand, the use of forest resources is an essential component of the regional incomes in NW Spain and consequently there is a pressing necessity for investigation on techniques suitable for reconciling soil conservation and sustainable use of those resources. In the framework of wildfire impacts this involve many and complex challenges. This scenario contrast with most of the Iberian Peninsula under Mediterranean influence where salvage logging is not a priority. As in other regions, post-fire hydrologic and erosive risk modeling, including threatened resources vulnerability evaluation is also a capital research need, particularly in a climate change context where dramatic changes in drivers such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and fire regime are expected. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de

  10. The diversity of mud volcanoes in the landscape of Azerbaijan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidov, Tofig

    2014-05-01

    As the natural phenomenon the mud volcanism (mud volcanoes) of Azerbaijan are known from the ancient times. The historical records describing them are since V century. More detail study of this natural phenomenon had started in the second half of XIX century. The term "mud volcano" (or "mud hill") had been given by academician H.W. Abich (1863), more exactly defining this natural phenomenon. All the previous definitions did not give such clear and capacious explanation of it. In comparison with magmatic volcanoes, globally the mud ones are restricted in distribution; they mainly locate within the Alpine-Himalayan, Pacific and Central Asian mobile belts, in more than 30 countries (Columbia, Trinidad Island, Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Burma, Malaysia, etc.). Besides it, the zones of mud volcanoes development are corresponded to zones of marine accretionary prisms' development. For example, the South-Caspian depression, Barbados Island, Cascadia (N.America), Costa-Rica, Panama, Japan trench. Onshore it is Indonesia, Japan, and Trinidad, Taiwan. The mud volcanism with non-accretionary conditions includes the areas of Black Sea, Alboran Sea, the Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana coast), Salton Sea. But new investigations reveal more new mud volcanoes and in places which were not considered earlier as the traditional places of mud volcanoes development (e.g. West Nile Rive delta). Azerbaijan is the classic region of mud volcanoes development. From over 800 world mud volcanoes there are about 400 onshore and within the South-Caspian basin, which includes the territory of East Azerbaijan (the regions of Shemakha-Gobustan and Low-Kura River, Absheron peninsula), adjacent water area of South Caspian (Baku and Absheron archipelagoes) and SW Turkmenistan and represents an area of great downwarping with thick (over 25 km) sedimentary series. Generally, in the modern relief the mud volcanoes represent more or less large uplifts

  11. Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, John A.; Shakesby, Richard A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Cannon, Susan H.; Martin, Deborah A.

    2013-01-01

    Research into post-wildfire effects began in the United States more than 70 years ago and only later extended to other parts of the world. Post-wildfire responses are typically transient, episodic, variable in space and time, dependent on thresholds, and involve multiple processes measured by different methods. These characteristics tend to hinder research progress, but the large empirical knowledge base amassed in different regions of the world suggests that it should now be possible to synthesize the data and make a substantial improvement in the understanding of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response. Thus, it is important to identify and prioritize the research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion. Priority research issues are the need to: (1) organize and synthesize similarities and differences in post-wildfire responses between different fire-prone regions of the world in order to determine common patterns and generalities that can explain cause and effect relations; (2) identify and quantify functional relations between metrics of fire effects and soil hydraulic properties that will better represent the dynamic and transient conditions after a wildfire; (3) determine the interaction between burned landscapes and temporally and spatially variable meso-scale precipitation, which is often the primary driver of post-wildfire runoff and erosion responses; (4) determine functional relations between precipitation, basin morphology, runoff connectivity, contributing area, surface roughness, depression storage, and soil characteristics required to predict the timing, magnitudes, and duration of floods and debris flows from ungaged burned basins; and (5) develop standard measurement methods that will ensure the collection of uniform and comparable runoff and erosion data. Resolution of these issues will help to improve conceptual and computer models of post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes.

  12. Multiple Victims of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in the Aftermath of a Wildfire: A Case Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Ramos dos Santos

    2018-03-01

    Conclusion: Use of hyperbaric oxygen appears to have reduced the incidence of the syndrome. This seems to be the first Portuguese series reporting use of hyperbaric oxygen in carbon monoxide poisoning due to wildfires. The authors intend to alert to the importance of referral of these patients because the indications and benefits of this treatment are well documented. This is especially important given the ever-growing issue of wildfires in Portugal.

  13. Felsic maar-diatreme volcanoes: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Pierre-Simon; Carrasco Núñez, Gerardo; Hayman, Patrick

    2017-02-01

    Felsic maar-diatreme volcanoes host major ore deposits but have been largely ignored in the volcanology literature, especially for the diatreme portion of the system. Here, we use two Mexican tuff rings as analogs for the maar ejecta ring, new observations from one diatreme, and the economic geology literature on four other mineralized felsic maar-diatremes to produce an integrated picture of this type of volcano. The ejecta rings are up to 50 m+ thick and extend laterally up to ˜1.5 km from the crater edge. In two Mexican examples, the lower part of the ejecta ring is dominated by pyroclastic surge deposits with abundant lithic clasts (up to 80% at Hoya de Estrada). These deposits display low-angle cross-bedding, dune bedforms, undulating beds, channels, bomb sags, and accretionary lapilli and are interpreted as phreatomagmatic. Rhyolitic juvenile clasts at Tepexitl have only 0-25% vesicles in this portion of the ring. The upper parts of the ejecta ring sequences in the Mexican examples have a different character: lithic clasts can be less abundant, the grain size is typically coarser, and the juvenile clasts can be different in character (with some more vesicular fragments). Fragmentation was probably shallower at this stage. The post-eruptive maar crater infill is known at Wau and consists of reworked pyroclastic deposits as well as lacustrine and other sediments. Underneath are bedded upper diatreme deposits, interpreted as pyroclastic surge and fall deposits. The upper diatreme and post-eruptive crater deposits have dips larger than 30° at Wau, with approximately centroclinal attitudes. At still lower structural levels, the diatreme pyroclastic infill is largely unbedded; Montana Tunnels and Kelian are good examples of this. At Cerro de Pasco, the pyroclastic infill seems bedded despite about 500 m of post-eruptive erosion relative to the pre-eruptive surface. The contact between the country rocks and the diatreme is sometimes characterized by country rock

  14. Winter barley mutants created in the Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zayats, O.M.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Increasing fodder and protein production is one of the objectives of the development of agriculture in Ukraine. Higher productivity of fodder crops, due to new highly productive varieties, is the means to meet this aim. Winter barley is an important crop for fodder purposes. The climate of the Ukraine is favourable for growing this crop. The areas used for the growth of winter barley are however, small (500,000-550,000 ha) and there is a shortage of good quality varieties. The main aim of the work was therefore to create new varieties of highly productive winter barley, of good quality. The new varieties and mutation lines of winter barley were created under the influence of water solutions of N-nitroso-N-methylurea (NMH - 0,012, 0,005%), N-nitroso-N-ethylurea (NEH - 0,05; 0.025; 0,012%) ethyleneimine (EI - 0,02; 0,01; 0,005%) on winter barley seeds of the varieties of local and foreign selections. On the basis of many years of investigations (1984-94) the following mutations were described: hard-grained, winter-hardiness, earliness, middle-maturity, late-maturity, wide and large leaves, narrow leaves, multinodal, great number of leaves, great number of flowers, strong stem (lodging resistant), tallness, semi-dwarfness, dwarfness, and high productivity. Particularly valuable are mutants with high productivity of green bulk. Their potential yield is 70 t/ha. As a result of the work two varieties of winter barley 'Shyrokolysty' and 'Kormovy' were released into the State register of plant varieties of the Ukraine. The other valuable mutant genotypes are used in cross breeding programmes. (author)

  15. Assessing increasing susceptibility to wildfire at the wildland-urban fringe in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.

    2013-05-01

    Much of the western U.S. is increasingly susceptible to wildfire activity due to drier conditions, elevated fuel loads, and expanding urbanization. As population increases, development pushes the urban boundary further into wildlands, creating more potential for human interaction at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), primarily from human ignitions and fire suppression policies. The immediate impacts of wildfires include vulnerability to debris flows, flooding, and impaired water quality. Fires also alter longer-term hydrological and ecosystem behavior. The current study utilizes geospatial datasets to investigate historical wildfire size and frequency relative to the WUI for a range of cities across western North America. California, the most populous state in the U.S., has an extensive fire history. The decennial population and acres burned for four major counties (Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Shasta) in California show that increasing wildfire size and frequency follow urbanization trends, with high correlation between the last decade of burned area, urban-fringe proximity, and increasing population. Ultimately, results will provide information on urban fringe communities that are most vulnerable to the risks associated with wildfire and post-fire impacts. In light of evolving land use policies (i.e. forest management and treatment, development at the urban-fringe) and climate change, it is critical to advance our knowledge of the implications that these conditions pose to urban centers, communicate risks to the public, and ultimately provide guidance for wildfire management.

  16. Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

    2015-05-01

    We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

  17. Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

    2015-05-01

    We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

  18. Airborne measurements of western U.S. wildfire emissions: Comparison with prescribed burning and air quality implications: Western U.S. Wildfire Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiaoxi [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Now at Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Now at Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Huey, L. Gregory [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Yokelson, Robert J. [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Selimovic, Vanessa [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Simpson, Isobel J. [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Müller, Markus [Department of Chemistry, University of Montana, Missoula Montana USA; Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck Austria; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Beyersdorf, Andreas J. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Now at Department of Chemistry, California State University, San Bernardino California USA; Blake, Donald R. [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Butterfield, Zachary [Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Now at Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michigan USA; Choi, Yonghoon [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton Virginia USA; Crounse, John D. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Day, Douglas A. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Diskin, Glenn S. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Dubey, Manvendra K. [Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Fortner, Edward [Center for Aerosol and Cloud Chemistry, Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Hanisco, Thomas F. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Hu, Weiwei [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; King, Laura E. [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Kleinman, Lawrence [Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Meinardi, Simone [Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine California USA; Mikoviny, Tomas [Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo, Oslo Norway; Onasch, Timothy B. [Center for Aerosol and Cloud Chemistry, Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Palm, Brett B. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Peischl, Jeff [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Colorado USA; Pollack, Ilana B. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Colorado USA; Now at Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Ryerson, Thomas B. [Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Colorado USA; Sachse, Glen W. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; Sedlacek, Arthur J. [Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Shilling, John E. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Springston, Stephen [Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; St. Clair, Jason M. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Now at Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Now at Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore Maryland USA; Tanner, David J. [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Teng, Alexander P. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Wennberg, Paul O. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Division of Engineering and Applied Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Wisthaler, Armin [Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck Austria; Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo, Oslo Norway; Wolfe, Glenn M. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Maryland USA; Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore Maryland USA

    2017-06-14

    Wildfires emit significant amounts of pollutants that degrade air quality. Plumes from three wildfires in the western U.S. were measured from aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), both in summer 2013. This study reports an extensive set of emission factors (EFs) for over 80 gases and 5 components of submicron particulate matter (PM1) from these temperate wildfires. These include rarely, or never before, measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds and multifunctional organic nitrates. The observed EFs are compared with previous measurements of temperate wildfires, boreal forest fires, and temperate prescribed fires. The wildfires emitted high amounts of PM1 (with organic aerosol (OA) dominating the mass) with an average EF that is more than two times the EFs for prescribed fires. The measured EFs were used to estimate the annual wildfire emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total nonmethane organic compounds, and PM1 from 11 western U.S. states. The estimated gas emissions are generally comparable with the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, our PM1 emission estimate (1530 ± 570 Gg yr-1) is over three times that of the NEI PM2.5 estimate and is also higher than the PM2.5 emitted from all other sources in these states in the NEI. This study indicates that the source of OA from BB in the western states is significantly underestimated. In addition, our results indicate prescribed burning may be an effective method to reduce fine particle emissions.

  19. Airborne measurements of western U.S. wildfire emissions: Comparison with prescribed burning and air quality implications: Western U.S. Wildfire Emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiaoxi; University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; Huey, L. Gregory; Yokelson, Robert J.; Selimovic, Vanessa

    2017-01-01

    Wildfires emit significant amounts of pollutants that degrade air quality. Plumes from three wildfires in the western U.S. were measured from aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), both in summer 2013. This study reports an extensive set of emission factors (EFs) for over 80 gases and 5 components of submicron particulate matter (PM 1 ) from these temperate wildfires. These include rarely, or never before, measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds and multifunctional organic nitrates. The observed EFs are compared with previous measurements of temperate wildfires, boreal forest fires, and temperate prescribed fires. Furthermore, the wildfires emitted high amounts of PM 1 (with organic aerosol (OA) dominating the mass) with an average EF that is more than 2 times the EFs for prescribed fires. The measured EFs were used to estimate the annual wildfire emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total nonmethane organic compounds, and PM 1 from 11 western U.S. states. The estimated gas emissions are generally comparable with the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, our PM 1 emission estimate (1530 ± 570 Gg yr -1 ) is over 3 times that of the NEI PM2.5 estimate and is also higher than the PM2.5 emitted from all other sources in these states in the NEI. This study indicates that the source of OA from biomass burning in the western states is significantly underestimated. Additionally, our results indicate that prescribed burning may be an effective method to reduce fine particle emissions.

  20. The Powell Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reath, K.; Pritchard, M. E.; Poland, M. P.; Wessels, R. L.; Biggs, J.; Carn, S. A.; Griswold, J. P.; Ogburn, S. E.; Wright, R.; Lundgren, P.; Andrews, B. J.; Wauthier, C.; Lopez, T.; Vaughan, R. G.; Rumpf, M. E.; Webley, P. W.; Loughlin, S.; Meyer, F. J.; Pavolonis, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hazards from volcanic eruptions pose risks to the lives and livelihood of local populations, with potential global impacts to businesses, agriculture, and air travel. The 2015 Global Assessment of Risk report notes that 800 million people are estimated to live within 100 km of 1400 subaerial volcanoes identified as having eruption potential. However, only 55% of these volcanoes have any type of ground-based monitoring. The only methods currently available to monitor these unmonitored volcanoes are space-based systems that provide a global view. However, with the explosion of data techniques and sensors currently available, taking full advantage of these resources can be challenging. The USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group is working with many partners to optimize satellite resources for global detection of volcanic unrest and assessment of potential eruption hazards. In this presentation we will describe our efforts to: 1) work with space agencies to target acquisitions from the international constellation of satellites to collect the right types of data at volcanoes with forecasting potential; 2) collaborate with the scientific community to develop databases of remotely acquired observations of volcanic thermal, degassing, and deformation signals to facilitate change detection and assess how these changes are (or are not) related to eruption; and 3) improve usage of satellite observations by end users at volcano observatories that report to their respective governments. Currently, the group has developed time series plots for 48 Latin American volcanoes that incorporate variations in thermal, degassing, and deformation readings over time. These are compared against eruption timing and ground-based data provided by the Smithsonian Institute Global Volcanism Program. Distinct patterns in unrest and eruption are observed at different volcanoes, illustrating the difficulty in developing generalizations, but highlighting the power of remote sensing

  1. Communication Between Volcanoes: a Possible Path

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A. T.; Sacks, I. S.

    2002-12-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency installed and operates a network of Sacks-Evertson type borehole strainmeters in south-east Honshu. One of these instruments is on Izu-Oshima, a volcanic island at the northern end of the Izu-Bonin arc. That strainmeter recorded large strain changes associated with the 1986 eruption of Miharayama on the island and, over the period from 1980 to the 1986 eruption, the amplitude of the solid earth tides changed by almost a factor of two. Miyake-jima, about 75 km south of Izu-Oshima, erupted in October 1983. No deformation monitoring was available on Miyake but several changes occurred in the strain record at Izu-Oshima. There was a clear decrease in amplitude of the long-term strain rate. Short period (~hour) events recorded by the strainmeter became much more frequent about 6 months before the Miyake eruption and ceased following the eruption. At the time of the Miyake eruption, the rate of increase of the tidal amplitude also decreased. While all of these changes were observed on a single instrument, they are very different types of change. From a number of independent checks, we can be sure that the strainmeter did not experience any change in performance at that time. Thus it recorded a change in deformation behavior in three very different frequency bands: over very long term, at tidal periods (~day) and at very short periods (~hour). It appears that the distant eruption in 1983 had an effect on the magmatic system under Izu-Oshima. It is likely that these changes were enhanced to the observed level because Izu-Oshima was itself close to eruption failure. More recent tomographic and seismic attenuation work in the Tohoku (northern Honshu) area has shown the existence of a low velocity, high attenuation horizontally elongated structure under the volcanic front. This zone, likely to contain partial melt, is horizontally continuous along the front. If such a structure exists in the similar tectonic setting for these volcanoes, it

  2. Volatile Element Fluxes at Copahue Volcano, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varekamp, J. C.

    2002-05-01

    Copahue volcano has a crater lake and acid hot springs that discharge into the Rio Agrio river system. These fluids are very concentrated (up to 6 % sulfate), rich in rock-forming elements (up to 2000 ppm Mg) and small spheres of native sulfur float in the crater lake. The stable isotope composition of the waters (delta 18O =-2.1 to + 3.6 per mille; delta D = -49 to -26 per mille) indicates that the hot spring waters are at their most concentrated about 70% volcanic brine and 30 % glacial meltwater. The crater lake waters have similar mixing proportions but added isotope effects from intense evaporation. Further dilution of the waters in the Rio Agrio gives values closer to local meteoric waters (delta 18O = -11 per mille; delta D = -77 per mille), whereas evaporation in closed ponds led to very heavy water (up to delta 18O = +12 per mille). The delta 34S value of dissolved sulfate is +14.2 per mille, whereas the native sulfur has values of -8.2 to -10.5 per mille. The heavy sulfate probably formed when SO2 disproportionated into bisulfate and native sulfur at about 300 C. We measured the sulfate fluxes in the Rio Agrio, which ranged from 20-40 kilotons S/year. The whole system was releasing sulfur at an equivalent rate of about 250-650 tons SO2/day. From the river flux sulfur values and the stochiometry of the disproportionation reaction we calculated the rate of liquid sulfur storage inside the volcano (6000 m3/year). During the eruptions of 1995/2000, large amounts of that stored liquid sulfur were ejected as pyroclastic sulfur. The calculated rate of rock dissolution (from rock- forming element fluxes in the Rio Agrio) suggests that the void space generated by rock dissolution is largely filled by native sulfur and silica. The S/Cl ratio in the hydrothermal fluids is about 2, whereas glass inclusions have S/Cl = 0.2, indicating the strong preferential degassing of sulfur.

  3. Magma Dynamics in Dome-Building Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, J. E.; Lavallée, Y.; Hornby, A. J.; Schaefer, L. N.; Oommen, T.; Di Toro, G.; Hirose, T.

    2014-12-01

    The frequent and, as yet, unpredictable transition from effusive to explosive volcanic behaviour is common to active composite volcanoes, yet our understanding of the processes which control this evolution is poor. The rheology of magma, dictated by its composition, porosity and crystal content, is integral to eruption behaviour and during ascent magma behaves in an increasingly rock-like manner. This behaviour, on short timescales in the upper conduit, provides exceptionally dynamic conditions that favour strain localisation and failure. Seismicity released by this process can be mimicked by damage accumulation that releases acoustic signals on the laboratory scale, showing that the failure of magma is intrinsically strain-rate dependent. This character aids the development of shear zones in the conduit, which commonly fracture seismogenically, producing fault surfaces that control the last hundreds of meters of ascent by frictional slip. High-velocity rotary shear (HVR) experiments demonstrate that at ambient temperatures, gouge behaves according to Byerlee's rule at low slip velocities. At rock-rock interfaces, mechanical work induces comminution of asperities and heating which, if sufficient, may induce melting and formation of pseudotachylyte. The viscosity of the melt, so generated, controls the subsequent lubrication or resistance to slip along the fault plane thanks to non-Newtonian suspension rheology. The bulk composition, mineralogy and glass content of the magma all influence frictional behaviour, which supersedes buoyancy as the controlling factor in magma ascent. In the conduit of dome-building volcanoes, the fracture and slip processes are further complicated: slip-rate along the conduit margin fluctuates. The shear-thinning frictional melt yields a tendency for extremely unstable slip thanks to its pivotal position with regard to the glass transition. This thermo-kinetic transition bestows the viscoelastic melt with the ability to either flow or

  4. Volcano surveillance by ACR silver fox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, M.C.L.; Mulligair, A.; Douglas, J.; Robinson, J.; Pallister, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Recent growth in the business of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) both in the US and abroad has improved their overall capability, resulting in a reduction in cost, greater reliability and adoption into areas where they had previously not been considered. Uses in coastal and border patrol, forestry and agriculture have recently been evaluated in an effort to expand the observed area and reduce surveillance and reconnaissance costs for information gathering. The scientific community has both contributed and benefited greatly in this development. A larger suite of light-weight miniaturized sensors now exists for a range of applications which in turn has led to an increase in the gathering of information from these autonomous vehicles. In October 2004 the first eruption of Mount St Helens since 1986 caused tremendous interest amoUg people worldwide. Volcanologists at the U.S. Geological Survey rapidly ramped up the level of monitoring using a variety of ground-based sensors deployed in the crater and on the flanks of the volcano using manned helicopters. In order to develop additional unmanned sensing methods that can be used in potentially hazardous and low visibility conditions, a UAV experiment was conducted during the ongoing eruption early in November. The Silver Fox UAV was flown over and inside the crater to perform routine observation and data gathering, thereby demonstrating a technology that could reduce physical risk to scientists and other field operatives. It was demonstrated that UAVs can be flown autonomously at an active volcano and can deliver real time data to a remote location. Although still relatively limited in extent, these initial flights provided information on volcanic activity and thermal conditions within the crater and at the new (2004) lava dome. The flights demonstrated that readily available visual and infrared video sensors mounted in a small and relatively low-cost aerial platform can provide useful data on volcanic phenomena. This was

  5. Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

    2012-12-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009

  6. Examining winter visitor use in Yellowstone National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mae A. Davenport; Wayne A. Freimund; William T. Borrie; Robert E. Manning; William A. Valliere; Benjamin Wang

    2000-01-01

    This research was designed to assist the managers of Yellowstone National Park (YNP) in their decision making about winter visitation. The focus of this report is on winter use patterns and winter visitor preferences. It is the author’s hope that this information will benefit both the quality of winter experiences and the stewardship of the park resources. This report...

  7. Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.

    2018-01-01

    Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this

  8. Root development of fodder radish and winter wheat before winter in relation to uptake of nitrogen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahlström, Ellen Margrethe; Hansen, Elly Møller; Mandel, A.

    2015-01-01

    occurred. Quantitative data is missing on N leaching of a catch crop compared to a winter cereal in a conventional cereal-based cropping system. The aim of the study was to investigate whether fodder radish (Raphanus sativus L.) (FR) would be more efficient than winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (WW...

  9. Payment mechanisms for winter road maintenance services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Abdi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In countries with severe winters a major part of the annual budget for road maintenance is allocated on performance of winter road maintenance tasks. Finding appropriate remuneration forms to compensate entrepreneurs for performed road measures during winter is not an easy task in order to minimise or eliminate disputes and satisfy both client organisations and contractors. On the other hand improper reimbursement models lead either to the client’s annual budget imbalance due to unnecessary cost overruns or affect contractor’s cash-flow. Such cases in turn affect just-in-time winter road maintenance and then traffic safety. To solve such problems, a number of countries in cold regions like Sweden have developed different remuneration models based more on weather data called Weather Index. Therefore the objective of this paper is to investigate and evaluate the payment models applied in Sweden. The study uses a number of approaches namely; domestic questionnaire survey, analysis of a number of contract documents, a series of meetings with the project managers and an international benchmarking. The study recognised four remuneration models for winter maintenance service of which one based on weather data statistics. The study reveals the payment model based on weather data statistics is only applied for the roads with higher traffic flow and the model generates most uncertainty.

  10. Risk management model of winter navigation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

  11. Advances in volcano monitoring and risk reduction in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCausland, W. A.; White, R. A.; Lockhart, A. B.; Marso, J. N.; Assitance Program, V. D.; Volcano Observatories, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    We describe results of cooperative work that advanced volcanic monitoring and risk reduction. The USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) was initiated in 1986 after disastrous lahars during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz dramatizedthe need to advance international capabilities in volcanic monitoring, eruption forecasting and hazard communication. For the past 28 years, VDAP has worked with our partners to improve observatories, strengthen monitoring networks, and train observatory personnel. We highlight a few of the many accomplishments by Latin American volcano observatories. Advances in monitoring, assessment and communication, and lessons learned from the lahars of the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption and the 1994 Paez earthquake enabled the Servicio Geológico Colombiano to issue timely, life-saving warnings for 3 large syn-eruptive lahars at Nevado del Huila in 2007 and 2008. In Chile, the 2008 eruption of Chaitén prompted SERNAGEOMIN to complete a national volcanic vulnerability assessment that led to a major increase in volcano monitoring. Throughout Latin America improved seismic networks now telemeter data to observatories where the decades-long background rates and types of seismicity have been characterized at over 50 volcanoes. Standardization of the Earthworm data acquisition system has enabled data sharing across international boundaries, of paramount importance during both regional tectonic earthquakes and during volcanic crises when vulnerabilities cross international borders. Sharing of seismic forecasting methods led to the formation of the international organization of Latin American Volcano Seismologists (LAVAS). LAVAS courses and other VDAP training sessions have led to international sharing of methods to forecast eruptions through recognition of precursors and to reduce vulnerabilities from all volcano hazards (flows, falls, surges, gas) through hazard assessment, mapping and modeling. Satellite remote sensing data

  12. Volcano-tectonic interactions at Sabancaya and other Peruvian volcanoes revealed by InSAR and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay, J.; Pritchard, M. E.; Aron, F.; Delgado, F.; Macedo, O.; Aguilar, V.

    2013-12-01

    An InSAR survey of all 13 Holocene volcanoes in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone of Peru reveals previously undocumented surface deformation that is occasionally accompanied by seismic activity. Our survey utilizes SAR data spanning from 1992 to the present from the ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat satellites, as well as selected data from the TerraSAR-X satellite. We find that the recent unrest at Sabancaya volcano (heightened seismicity since 22 February 2013 and increased fumarolic output) has been accompanied by surface deformation. We also find two distinct deformation episodes near Sabancaya that are likely associated with an earthquake swarm in February 2013 and a M6 normal fault earthquake that occurred on 17 July 2013. Preliminary modeling suggests that faulting from the observed seismic moment can account for nearly all of the observed deformation and thus we have not yet found clear evidence for recent magma intrusion. We also document an earlier episode of deformation that occurred between December 2002 and September 2003 which may be associated with a M5.3 earthquake that occurred on 13 December 2002 on the Solarpampa fault, a large EW-striking normal fault located about 25 km northwest of Sabancaya volcano. All of the deformation episodes between 2002 and 2013 are spatially distinct from the inflation seen near Sabancaya from 1992 to 1997. In addition to the activity at Sabancaya, we also observe deformation near Coropuna volcano, in the Andagua Valley, and in the region between Ticsani and Tutupaca volcanoes. InSAR images reveal surface deformation that is possibly related to an earthquake swarm near Coropuna and Sabancaya volcanoes in December 2001. We also find persistent deformation in the scoria cone and lava field along the Andagua Valley, located 40 km east of Corpuna. An earthquake swarm near Ticsani volcano in 2005 produced surface deformation centered northwest of the volcano and was accompanied by a north-south elongated subsidence signal to the

  13. SUBMARINE VOLCANO CHARACTERISTICS IN SABANG WATERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hananto Kurnio

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is to understand the characteristics of a volcano occurred in marine environment, as Weh Island where Sabang City located is still demonstrated its volcanic cone morphology either through satellite imagery or bathymetric map. Methods used were marine geology, marine geophysics and oceanography. Results show that surface volcanism (sea depth less than 50 m take place as fumaroles, solfataras, hot ground, hot spring, hot mud pool and alteration in the vicinities of seafloor and coastal area vents. Seismic records also showed acoustic turbidity in the sea water column due to gas bubblings produced by seafloor fumaroles. Geochemical analyses show that seafloor samples in the vicinities of active and non-active fumarole vent are abundances with rare earth elements (REE. These were interpreted that the fumarole bring along REE through its gases and deposited on the surrounding seafloor surface. Co-existence between active fault of Sumatra and current volcanism produce hydrothermal mineralization in fault zone as observed in Serui and Pria Laot-middle of Weh Island which both are controlled by normal faults and graben.

  14. Energy budget of the volcano Stromboli, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgetchin, T. R.; Chouet, B. A.

    1979-01-01

    The results of the analyses of movies of eruptions at Stromboli, Italy, and other available data are used to discuss the question of its energy partitioning among various energy transport mechanisms. Energy is transported to the surface from active volcanoes in at least eight modes, viz. conduction (and convection) of the heat through the surface, radiative heat transfer from the vent, acoustical radiation in blast and jet noise, seismic radiation, thermal energy of ejected particles, kinetic energy of ejected particles, thermal energy of ejected gas, and kinetic energy of ejected gas. Estimated values of energy flux from Stromboli by these eight mechanisms are tabulated. The energy budget of Stromboli in its normal mode of activity appears to be dominated by heat conduction (and convection) through the ground surface. Heat carried by eruption gases is the most important of the other energy transfer modes. Radiated heat from the open vent and heat carried by ejected lava particles also contribute to the total flux, while seismic energy accounts for about 0.5% of the total. All other modes are trivial by comparison.

  15. Geomorphological classification of post-caldera volcanoes in the Buyan-Bratan caldera, North Bali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okuno, Mitsuru; Harijoko, Agung; Wayan Warmada, I.; Watanabe, Koichiro; Nakamura, Toshio; Taguchi, Sachihiro; Kobayashi, Tetsuo

    2017-12-01

    A landform of the post-caldera volcanoes (Lesung, Tapak, Sengayang, Pohen, and Adeng) in the Buyan-Bratan caldera on the island of Bali, Indonesia can be classified by topographic interpretation. The Tapak volcano has three craters, aligned from north to south. Lava effused from the central crater has flowed downward to the northwest, separating the Tamblingan and Buyan Lakes. This lava also covers the tip of the lava flow from the Lesung volcano. Therefore, it is a product of the latest post-caldera volcano eruption. The Lesung volcano also has two craters, with a gully developing on the pyroclastic cone from the northern slope to the western slope. Lava from the south crater has flowed down the western flank, beyond the caldera rim. Lava distributed on the eastern side from the south also surrounds the Sengayang volcano. The Adeng volcano is surrounded by debris avalanche deposits from the Pohen volcano. Based on these topographic relationships, Sengayang volcano appears to be the oldest of the post-caldera volcanoes, followed by the Adeng, Pohen, Lesung, and Tapak volcanoes. Coarse-grained scoria falls around this area are intercalated with two foreign tephras: the Samalas tephra (1257 A.D.) from Lombok Island and the Penelokan tephra (ca. 5.5 kBP) from the Batur caldera. The source of these scoria falls is estimated to be either the Tapak or Lesung volcano, implying that at least two volcanoes have erupted during the Holocene period.

  16. Effects of wildfires on ash Carbon, Nitrogen and C/N ratio in Mediterranean forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, P.; Ubeda, X.; Martin, D. A.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon (C) and Nitrogen(N) are key nutrients in ecosystems health and the more affected by fire temperatures, because of their low temperatures of volatilization. After a wildfire, due higher temperatures reached, a great amount of C and N can be evacuated from the ecosystems and the percentage of C and N not vaporized is concentrated in ashes. Hence, the study of ash C and N is of major importance because will be linked with the capacity of ecosystem recuperation. The aim of this work is study the C, and C/N of three wildfires occurred in Mediterranean forests dominated by Quercus suber and Pinus pinea in Portugal. In the first wildfire, named "Quinta do Conde", we collected 30 samples, in the second, "Quinta da Areia", 32 samples and the third, "Casal do Sapo" 40 samples To estimate the consequences of wildfires in the parameters in study, we collected several samples of unburned litter near burned areas, composed by the same vegetation. The results showed that wildfires induced in % of Total Carbon (%TC) ashes content a non significantly reduction in Quinta do Conde plot (at a pPinus pinaster samples decreasing thereafter especially after the 400°C. In %TN we identified a rise in both species reducing abruptly at 450°C. C/N ratio decrease importantly after the 150°C. Theses results showed us that wildfires can have different effects C and N litter resources, depending on the severity and temperature reached. Crossing the results obtained in laboratory simulations with the samples collected in wildfires we will have an idea about the severity and temperature occurred in each wildfire. Overall, the lower severity were observed in Quinta do Conde plot and the higher in Casal do Sapo plot, being Quinta da Areia in a middle position. The C and N levels after a wildfire will determine the capacity of landscape recuperation and according the data obtained this will be higher in Quinta do Conde plot and lesser in Casal do Sapo plot. These hypothesis will be confirmed

  17. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  18. The engineering approach to winter sports

    CERN Document Server

    Cheli, Federico; Maldifassi, Stefano; Melzi, Stefano; Sabbioni, Edoardo

    2016-01-01

    The Engineering Approach to Winter Sports presents the state-of-the-art research in the field of winter sports in a harmonized and comprehensive way for a diverse audience of engineers, equipment and facilities designers, and materials scientists. The book examines the physics and chemistry of snow and ice with particular focus on the interaction (friction) between sports equipment and snow/ice, how it is influenced by environmental factors, such as temperature and pressure, as well as by contaminants and how it can be modified through the use of ski waxes or the microtextures of blades or ski soles. The authors also cover, in turn, the different disciplines in winter sports:  skiing (both alpine and cross country), skating and jumping, bob sledding and skeleton, hockey and curling, with attention given to both equipment design and on the simulation of gesture and  track optimization.

  19. Volcano related atmospheric toxicants in Hilo and Hawaii Volcanoes National Park: implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Jon-Pierre; Krupitsky, Dmitry; Grove, John S; Anderson, Bruce S

    2005-08-01

    Volcanic fog (vog) from Kilauea volcano on the island of Hawaii includes a variety of chemical species including sulfur compounds and traces of metals such as mercury. The metal species seen tended to be in the nanograms per cubic meter range, whereas oxides of sulfur: SO2 and SO3 and sulfate aerosols, were in the range of micrograms per cubic meter and rarely even as high as a few milligrams per cubic meter of air (nominally ppb to ppm). These sulfur species are being investigated for associations with both acute and chronic changes in human health status. The sulfate aerosols tend to be less than 1 microm in diameter and tend to dominate the mass of this submicron size mode. The sulfur chemistry is dynamic, changing composition from predominantly sulfur dioxide and trioxide gasses near the volcano, to predominantly sulfate aerosols on the west side of the island. Time, concentration and composition characteristics of submicron aerosols and sulfur dioxide are described with respect to the related on-going health studies and public health management concerns. Exposures to sulfur dioxide and particulate matter equal to or less than 1 microm in size were almost always below the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). These standards do not however consider the acidic nature and submicron size of the aerosol, nor the possibility of the aerosol and the sulfur dioxide interacting in their toxicity. Time series plots, histograms and descriptive statistics of hourly averages give the reader a sense of some of the exposures observed.

  20. Prevalence of operator fatigue in winter maintenance operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camden, Matthew C; Medina-Flintsch, Alejandra; Hickman, Jeffrey S; Bryce, James; Flintsch, Gerardo; Hanowski, Richard J

    2018-02-02

    Similar to commercial motor vehicle drivers, winter maintenance operators are likely to be at an increased risk of becoming fatigued while driving due to long, inconsistent shifts, environmental stressors, and limited opportunities for sleep. Despite this risk, there is little research concerning the prevalence of winter maintenance operator fatigue during winter emergencies. The purpose of this research was to investigate the prevalence, sources, and countermeasures of fatigue in winter maintenance operations. Questionnaires from 1043 winter maintenance operators and 453 managers were received from 29 Clear Road member states. Results confirmed that fatigue was prevalent in winter maintenance operations. Over 70% of the operators and managers believed that fatigue has a moderate to significant impact on winter maintenance operations. Approximately 75% of winter maintenance operators reported to at least sometimes drive while fatigued, and 96% of managers believed their winter maintenance operators drove while fatigued at least some of the time. Furthermore, winter maintenance operators and managers identified fatigue countermeasures and sources of fatigue related to winter maintenance equipment. However, the countermeasures believed to be the most effective at reducing fatigue during winter emergencies (i.e., naps) were underutilized. For example, winter maintenance operators reported to never use naps to eliminate fatigue. These results indicated winter maintenance operations are impacted by operator fatigue. These results support the increased need for research and effective countermeasures targeting winter maintenance operator fatigue. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Tephra compositions from Late Quaternary volcanoes around the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, S.

    2009-12-01

    Crustal extension and rifting processes opened the Bransfield Strait between the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula during the last 4 Ma. Similar processes on the Peninsula's eastern side are responsible for volcanism along Larsen Rift. There are at least 11 volcanic centers with known or suspected Late Pleistocene / Holocene explosive activity (Fig. 1). Fieldwork was carried out on the islands Deception, Penguin, Bridgeman and Paulet, moreover at Melville Peak (King George Is.) and Rezen Peak (Livingston Is.). Of special importance is the second ever reported visit and sampling at Sail Rock, and the work on never before visited outcrops on the northern slopes and at the summit of Cape Purvis volcano (Fig. 1). The new bulk tephra ICP-MS geochemical data provide a reliable framework to distinguish the individual volcanic centers from each other. According to their Mg-number, Melville Peak and Penguin Island represent the most primitive magma source. Nb/Y ratios higher than 0.67 in combination with elevated Th/Yb and Ta/Yb ratios and strongly enriched LREE seem to be diagnostic to distinguish the volcanoes located along the Larsen Rift from those associated with Bransfield Rift. Sr/Y ratios discriminate between the individual Larsen Rift volcanoes, Paulet Island showing considerably higher values than Cape Purvis volcano. Along Bransfield Rift, Bridgeman Island and Melville Peak have notably lower Nb/Y and much higher Th/Nb than Deception Island, Penguin Island and Sail Rock. The latter displays almost double the Th/Yb ratio as compared to Deception Island, and also much higher LREE enrichment but extraordinarily low Ba/Th, discriminating it from Penguin Island. Such extremely low Ba/Th ratios are also typical for Melville Peak, but for none of the other volcanoes. Penguin Island has almost double the Ba/Th and Sr/Y ratios higher than any other investigated volcano. Whereas the volcanoes located in the northern part of Bransfield Strait have Zr

  2. Post-wildfire soil erosion in the Mediterranean: Review and future research directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakesby, R. A.

    2011-04-01

    Wildfires increased dramatically in frequency and extent in the European Mediterranean region from the 1960s, aided by a general warming and drying trend, but driven primarily by socio-economic changes, including rural depopulation, land abandonment and afforestation with flammable species. Published research into post-wildfire hydrology and soil erosion, beginning during the 1980s in Spain, has been followed by studies in other European Mediterranean countries together with Israel and has now attained a sufficiently large critical mass to warrant a major review. Although variations in climate, vegetation, soil, topography and fire severity cause differences in Mediterranean post-wildfire erosion, the long history of human landscape impact up to the present day is responsible for some its distinctive characteristics. This paper highlights these characteristics in reviewing wildfire impacts on hydrology, soil properties and soil erosion by water. The 'mosaic' nature of many Mediterranean landscapes (e.g. an intricate land-use pattern, abandoned terraces and tracks interrupting slopes) may explain sometimes conflicting post-fire hydrological and erosional responses at different sites and spatial scales. First-year post-wildfire soil losses at point- (average, 45-56 t ha - 1 ) and plot-scales (many Aspect is important, with more erosion reported for south- than north-facing slopes, which is attributed to greater fire frequency, slower vegetation recovery on the former and with soil characteristics more prone to erosion (e.g. lower aggregate stability). Post-fire wind erosion is a potentially important but largely neglected process. Gauging the degradational significance of wildfires has relied on comparison with unburnt land, but the focus for comparison should be switched to other agents of soil disturbance and/or currently poorly understood soil renewal rates. Human impact on land use and vegetation may alter expected effects (increased fire activity and post-wildfire

  3. [Winter sport injuries in childhood (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausbrandt, D; Höllwarth, M; Ritter, G

    1979-01-01

    3374 accidents occurring on the field of sport during the years 1975--1977 accounted for 19% of all accidents dealt with at the Institute of Kinderchirurgie in Graz. 51% of the accidents were caused by the typical winter sports: skiing, tobogganing, ice-skating and ski-jumping with skiing accounting for 75% of the accidents. The fracture localization typical of the different kinds of winter sport is dealt with in detail. The correct size and safety of the equipment were found to be particularly important in the prevention of such accidents in childhood.

  4. Severe European winters in a secular perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

  5. Mechanical weed control in organic winter wheat

    OpenAIRE

    Euro Pannacci; Francesco Tei; Marcello Guiducci

    2017-01-01

    Three field experiments were carried out in organic winter wheat in three consecutive years (exp. 1, 2005-06; exp. 2, 2006- 07; exp. 3, 2007-08) in central Italy (42°57’ N - 12°22’ E, 165 m a.s.l.) in order to evaluate the efficacy against weeds and the effects on winter wheat of two main mechanical weed control strategies: i) spring tine harrowing used at three different application times (1 passage at T1, 2 passages at the time T1, 1 passage at T1 followed by 1 passage at T1 + 14 days) in t...

  6. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, O.

    1985-01-01

    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-(that) would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications.

  7. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, O.

    1985-01-01

    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-[that] would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications

  8. Vegetation recovery assessment following large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Trigo, R. M.; DaCamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems have evolved along with fire, adapting to quick recovering following wildfire events. However, vegetation species respond differently to the changes in fire regimes that have been observed in the past decades in the Mediterranean. These changes, which occurred mainly due to socio-economic and climatic changes, led to dramatic modifications of landscape composition and structure (Malkinson et al., 2011). Post-fire vegetation recovery depends on environmental factors such as landscape features and climatic variables and on specific plant traits; however it also depends on the differentiated response of each species to the characteristics of fire regimes, such as recurrence, severity and extent. The complexity of the interactions between these factors emphasizes the importance of assessing quantitatively post-fire recovery as well as the role of driving factors of regeneration over different regions in the Mediterranean. In 2006, Spain experienced the fire season with larger fires, restricted to a relatively small region of the province of Galicia, that represents more than 60% of total burned area of this fire season (92000ha out of 148827 ha). The 2007 fire season in Greece was remarkably severe, registering the highest value of burnt area (225734 ha) since 1980. Finally, in 2010 a very large wildfire of about 5000 ha occurred in Mount Carmel, Israel, with major social and environmental impacts. The work relies on monthly NDVI data from SPOT/VEGETATION at 1km spatial resolution over the period from September 1998 - August 2011 for Spain, Greece and Israel. Here we have applied the same sequential methodology developed at our laboratory, starting by the identification of very large burnt scars by means of a spatial cluster analysis followed by the application of the monoparametric model (Gouveia et al., 2010; Bastos et al., 2011) in order to study post-fire vegetation dynamics. Post-fire recovery times were estimated for burnt scars from each

  9. Deep long-period earthquakes beneath Washington and Oregon volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, M.L.; Malone, S.D.; Moran, S.C.; Thelen, W.A.; Vidale, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Deep long-period (DLP) earthquakes are an enigmatic type of seismicity occurring near or beneath volcanoes. They are commonly associated with the presence of magma, and found in some cases to correlate with eruptive activity. To more thoroughly understand and characterize DLP occurrence near volcanoes in Washington and Oregon, we systematically searched the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) triggered earthquake catalog for DLPs occurring between 1980 (when PNSN began collecting digital data) and October 2009. Through our analysis we identified 60 DLPs beneath six Cascade volcanic centers. No DLPs were associated with volcanic activity, including the 1980-1986 and 2004-2008 eruptions at Mount St. Helens. More than half of the events occurred near Mount Baker, where the background flux of magmatic gases is greatest among Washington and Oregon volcanoes. The six volcanoes with DLPs (counts in parentheses) are Mount Baker (31), Glacier Peak (9), Mount Rainier (9), Mount St. Helens (9), Three Sisters (1), and Crater Lake (1). No DLPs were identified beneath Mount Adams, Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, or Newberry Volcano, although (except at Hood) that may be due in part to poorer network coverage. In cases where the DLPs do not occur directly beneath the volcanic edifice, the locations coincide with large structural faults that extend into the deep crust. Our observations suggest the occurrence of DLPs in these areas could represent fluid and/or magma transport along pre-existing tectonic structures in the middle crust. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

    2017-12-01

    Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the

  11. Levoglucosan Levels in Alaskan Ice Cores as a Record of Past Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, M. E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kehrwald, N. M.; Kennedy, J.; Ferris, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Glaciers in southeast Alaska are significant contributors to global sea-level rise, and therefore understanding the mechanisms driving their recent mass loss is crucial for predicting future sea-level change. Fire activity in Alaska has increased dramatically during the last decade, adding a potential new source of light-absorbing organic material (soot) to the Juneau Icefield that can reduce albedo and enhance surface melt rates. The goal of this project is to create an accurate record of Alaskan wildfires to understand how Alaskan glacial mass balance is affected by the deposition of organic aerosols from wildfires. Previously, oxalate, ammonia, and potassium ion levels have been used as proxies for past wildfire activity, but these ions all have broader emission sources in addition to wildfires. Here we develop a record of past Alaskan fire events and climate from: (1) levels of a biomass burning indicator, levoglucosan, which only forms when cellulose is burned over 300 °C, (2) major ions including oxalate, ammonia, and potassium; (3) the number and size distribution of particles to quantify trace amounts of soot from wildfires; and (4) stable water isotope ratios as a proxy for past temperature in ice cores. We utilize a total of four shallow ice cores, ranging from 7 to 9 m in length, that were collected by a biogeochemistry team during the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) in 2016. Complications include our limited understanding of the conservation and degradation of levoglucosan over time or during the firnification process. We hypothesize that particle counts will be correlated with levoglucosan peaks, co-varying with wildfire frequency and temperatures over time. Based on previous work, we also expect to find correlations between levoglucosan and oxalate ion concentrations, even though oxalate ions have sources in addition to wildfire activity.

  12. Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5, combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

  13. Wildfire effects on C stocks in mountain soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez-Duarte, R.; Fernández, S.; Santin, C.; Gaspar, L.; Navas, A.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfire is the main perturbation agent in mountain soils of the Cantabrian Range (NW of Spain). Fire affects soil organic carbon (SOC) quality and quantity, both directly (e.g. combustion of organic matter and pyrogenic carbon production) and indirectly (e.g. increase of soil erosion and change of the vegetation cover). After fire, the organic fraction of the soil is expected to be enriched with charred compounds (black carbon, biochar or pyrogenic carbon-PyC). PyC mainly contributes to the recalcitrant C pool and therefore to the medium- and long-term C sequestration in soils. Moreover, recurrent fires in these Atlantic mountain ecosystems cause the conversion of the vegetation cover from forest to heathland, altering C transfer from biomass to soil. On the other hand, in this steep terrain, fire enhances soil erosion by creeping and therefore soil loss and the consequent loss of SOC. Thus, a basic but fundamental question arises: which is the net variation of SOC stocks in these mountain soils due to wildfires? To answer this, soils were sampled in a typical quartzite steep mountain in the Somiedo Natural Park (NW of Spain): i) a transect in the South hillside, prone to fires and with an intense fire history, where the vegetation cover is mostly heather and gorse; and ii) a transect in the North hillside, less affected by fire and with a well preserved vegetation cover (beech and oak forest). Samples of the surface soil (0-5 cm) and the whole soil profile were taken and, bulk density and SOC content were determined. On average fire-affected soils in the South transect have a lower soil depth (12.0 cm) and lower bulk density (0.5 g/cm3) than the North transect soils (17.6 cm depth and 1.0 g/cm3 bulk density) but they have also SOC concentrations six times higher than their unburned counterparts (147.5 and 22.8 mg C/g soil, respectively). When considering SOC stocks, differences are not as pronounced but, even so, fire affected soils content twice as much SOC (7

  14. Impact of Wildfire on Microbial Biomass in Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, M. A.; Fairbanks, D.; Chorover, J.; Gallery, R. E.; Rich, V. I.

    2014-12-01

    The recovery of the critical zone following disturbances such as wildfire is not fully understood. Wildfires have increased in size and intensity in western US forests in recent years and these fires influence soil microbial communities, both in composition and overall biomass. Studies have typically shown a 50% post-fire decline in overall microbial biomass (µg per g soil) that can persist for years. There is however, some variability in the severity of biomass decline, and its relationship with burn severity and landscape position have not yet been studied. Since microbial biomass has a cascade of impacts in soil systems, from helping control the rate and diversity the biogeochemical processes occurring, to promoting soil fertility, to impacting the nature and structure of soil carbon (C), fire's lasting impact on it is one mechanistic determinant of the overall post-fire recovery of impacted ecosystems. Additionally, microbial biomass measurements hold potential for testing and incorporation into land surface models (NoahMP, CLM, etc.) in order to improve estimates of long-term effects of climate change and disturbances such as fire on the C cycle. In order to refine our understanding of the impact of fire on microbial biomass and then relate that to biogeochemical processes and ecosystem recovery, we used chloroform fumigation extraction to quantify total microbial biomass C (Cmic ). One year after the June 2013 Thompson Ridge fire in the Jemez River Basin Critical Zone Observatory, we are measuring the Cmic of 22 sites across a gradient of burn severities and 4 control unburned sites, from six depth intervals at each site (0-2, 2-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, and 30-40 cm). We hypothesize that the decrease in microbial biomass in burned sites relative to control sites will correlate with changes in soil biogeochemistry related to burn severity; and that the extent of the impact on biomass will be inversely related to depth in the soil column. Additionally, as the

  15. Tremor Source Location at Okmok Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, C. G.; McNutt, S. R.

    2007-12-01

    Initial results using an amplitude-based tremor location program have located several active tremor episodes under Cone A, a vent within Okmok volcano's 10 km caldera. Okmok is an andesite volcano occupying the north-eastern half of Umnak Island, in the Aleutian islands. Okmok is defined by a ~2000 y.b.p. caldera that contains multiple cinder cones. Cone A, the youngest of these, extruded lava in 1997 covering the caldera floor. Since April 2003, continuous seismic data have been recorded from eight vertical short-period stations (L4-C's) installed at distances from Cone A ranging from 2 km to 31 km. In 2004 four additional 3- component broadband stations were added, co-located with continuous GPS stations. InSAR and GPS measurements of post-eruption deformation show that Okmok experienced several periods of rapid inflation (Mann and Freymueller, 2002), from the center of the 10 km diameter caldera. While there are few locatable VT earthquakes, there has been nearly continuous low-level tremor with stronger amplitude bursts occurring at variable rates and durations. The character of occurrence remained relatively constant over the course of days to weeks until the signal ceased in mid 2005. Within any day, tremor behavior remains fairly consistent, with bursts closely resembling each other, suggesting a single main process or source location. The tremor is composed of irregular waves with a broad range of frequencies, though most energy resides between ~2 Hz and 6 Hz. Attempts to locate the tremor using traditional arrival time methods fail because the signal is emergent, with envelopes too ragged to correlate on time scales that hold much hope for a location. Instead, focus was shifted to the amplitude ratios at various stations. Candidates for the tremor source include the center of inflation and Cone A, 3 km to the south-west. For all dates on record, data were band pass filtered between 1 and 5 Hz, then evaluated in 20.48 second windows (N=2048, sampling rate

  16. Basaltic cannibalism at Thrihnukagigur volcano, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudak, M. R.; Feineman, M. D.; La Femina, P. C.; Geirsson, H.

    2014-12-01

    Magmatic assimilation of felsic continental crust is a well-documented, relatively common phenomenon. The extent to which basaltic crust is assimilated by magmas, on the other hand, is not well known. Basaltic cannibalism, or the wholesale incorporation of basaltic crustal material into a basaltic magma, is thought to be uncommon because basalt requires more energy than higher silica rocks to melt. Basaltic materials that are unconsolidated, poorly crystalline, or palagonitized may be more easily ingested than fully crystallized massive basalt, thus allowing basaltic cannibalism to occur. Thrihnukagigur volcano, SW Iceland, offers a unique exposure of a buried cinder cone within its evacuated conduit, 100 m below the main vent. The unconsolidated tephra is cross-cut by a NNE-trending dike, which runs across the ceiling of this cave to a vent that produced lava and tephra during the ~4 Ka fissure eruption. Preliminary petrographic and laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) analyses indicate that there are two populations of plagioclase present in the system - Population One is stubby (aspect ratio 2.1), subhedral to euhedral, and has much higher Ba/Sr ratios. Population One crystals are observed in the cinder cone, dike, and surface lavas, whereas Population Two crystals are observed only in the dike and surface lavas. This suggests that a magma crystallizing a single elongate population of plagioclase intruded the cinder cone and rapidly assimilated the tephra, incorporating the stubbier population of phenocrysts. This conceptual model for basaltic cannibalism is supported by field observations of large-scale erosion upward into the tephra, which is coated by magma flow-back indicating that magma was involved in the thermal etching. While the unique exposure at Thrihnukagigur makes it an exceptional place to investigate basaltic cannibalism, we suggest that it is not limited to this volcanic system. Rather it is a process that likely

  17. Children and Natural Disasters: A Primer for School Psychologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Linda; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide children are impacted by natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and sandstorms, winter and severe storms, heat waves, volcanoes and tsunamis. School psychologists should understand natural disaster effects, such as economic loss, relocation and health concerns and mental health…

  18. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... gov . Emergency Preparedness and Response Are You Prepared? Shelter In Place Coping with a Disaster or Traumatic Event Taking Care of Your Emotional ... Emergencies Situation Awareness Hurricanes Wildfire Flooding Earthquakes Volcanos Winter Weather Recent Outbreaks and Incidents 2017 2016 2015 ...

  19. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... of yourself Information on Specific Types of Emergencies Situation Awareness Hurricanes Wildfire Flooding Earthquakes Volcanos Winter Weather ... Public Health Emergency Response Guide Planning Resources Response Worker Health and ... Media Zombie Apocalypse What’s New Are You Prepared? ...

  20. Design of smart sensing components for volcano monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, M.; Song, W.-Z.; Huang, R.; Peng, Y.; Shirazi, B.; LaHusen, R.; Kiely, A.; Peterson, N.; Ma, A.; Anusuya-Rangappa, L.; Miceli, M.; McBride, D.

    2009-01-01

    In a volcano monitoring application, various geophysical and geochemical sensors generate continuous high-fidelity data, and there is a compelling need for real-time raw data for volcano eruption prediction research. It requires the network to support network synchronized sampling, online configurable sensing and situation awareness, which pose significant challenges on sensing component design. Ideally, the resource usages shall be driven by the environment and node situations, and the data quality is optimized under resource constraints. In this paper, we present our smart sensing component design, including hybrid time synchronization, configurable sensing, and situation awareness. Both design details and evaluation results are presented to show their efficiency. Although the presented design is for a volcano monitoring application, its design philosophy and framework can also apply to other similar applications and platforms. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.