WorldWideScience

Sample records for volatile fuel prices

  1. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  2. Volatility in energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffie, D.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 58 references reviews the modelling and empirical behaviour of volatility in energy prices. Constant volatility and stochastic volatility are discussed. Markovian models of stochastic volatility are described and the different classes of Markovian stochastic volatility model are examined including auto-regressive volatility, option implied and forecasted volatility, Garch volatility, Egarch volatility, multivariate Garch volatility, and stochastic volatility and dynamic hedging policies. Other volatility models and option hedging are considered. The performance of several stochastic volatility models as applied to heating oil, light oil, natural gas, electricity and light crude oil are compared

  3. Volatile behaviour of enrichment uranium in the total nuclear fuel price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnaiz, J.; Inchausti, J. M.; Tarin, F.

    2004-01-01

    In this article the historical high volatile behaviour of the total nuclear fuel price is evaluated quantitatively and it is concluded that it has been due mainly to the fluctuations of the price of the principal components of enriched uranium (concentrates and enrichment). In order to avoid the negative effects of this volatiles behaviour as far as possible, a basic strategy in the uranium procurement activities is recommended (union of buyers, diversification of supplier, stock management, optimisation of contract portfolio and suitable currency management that guarantees a reliable uranium supply at reasonable prices. These guidelines are those that ENUSA has been following on behalf of the Spanish Utilities in the Commission of Uranium Procurement (CAU in Spanish). (Author) 11 refs

  4. Pricing Volatility Referenced Assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan De Genaro Dario

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993 stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993 model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.

  5. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  6. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyler, Aidan

    2009-01-01

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  7. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  8. Integration of CCS, emissions trading and volatilities of fuel prices into sustainable energy planning, and its robust optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, Jamin; Han, Kyusang; Yoon, En Sup

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new approach has been proposed that allows a robust optimization of sustainable energy planning over a period of years. It is based on the modified energy flow optimization model (EFOM) and minimizes total costs in planning capacities of power plants and CCS to be added, stripped or retrofitted. In the process, it reduces risks due to a high volatility in fuel prices; it also provides robustness against infeasibility with respect to meeting the required emission level by adopting a penalty constant that corresponds to the price level of emission allowances. In this manner, the proposed methodology enables decision makers to determine the optimal capacities of power plants and/or CCS, as well as volumes of emissions trading in the future that will meet the required emission level and satisfy energy demand from various user-sections with minimum costs and maximum robustness. They can also gain valuable insights on the effects that the price of emission allowances has on the competitiveness of RES and CCS technologies; it may be used in, for example, setting appropriate subsidies and tax policies for promoting greater use of these technologies. The proposed methodology is applied to a case based on directions and volumes of energy flows in South Korea during the year 2008. (author)

  9. Volatility Mean Reversion and the Market Price of Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes sources of derivative pricing errors in a stochastic volatility model estimated on stock return data. It is shown that such pricing errors may reflect the existence of a market price of volatility risk, but also may be caused by estimation errors due to a slow mean reversion in

  10. The price of fixed income market volatility

    CERN Document Server

    Mele, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

  11. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a two-component volatility model based on first moments of both components to describe the dynamics of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and the persistent part of volatility, respectively. The model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock ma...... markets. A positive or risk-premium effect exists between the return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for the return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on returns are tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component is much more important for the volatility dynamic process than is the volatile component. However, the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most...

  12. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    In this paper a two-component volatility model based on the component's first moment is introduced to describe the dynamic of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and persistent part of volatility respectively. Then the model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock m......, a positive or risk-premium effect exists between return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on return are also tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component accounts much more for volatility dynamic process than the volatile component. However the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most markets...

  13. American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping LI

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.

  14. CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanwan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

  15. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  16. Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salisu, Afees A.; Fasanya, Ismail O.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze oil prices of two prominent markets namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent using the two recently developed tests by Narayan and Popp (2010) and Liu and Narayan, 2010 both of which allow for two structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the latter method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 1990 and 2008 which coincidentally correspond to the Iraqi/Kuwait conflict and the global financial crisis, respectively. We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in the oil price volatility. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling oil price volatility. - Highlights: ► We analyze oil price volatility using NP (2010) and LN (2010) tests. ► We modify the LN (2010) to account for leverage effects in oil price. ► We find two structural breaks that reflect major global crisis in the oil market. ► We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in oil price volatility. ► Leverage effects and structural breaks are fundamental in oil price modelling.

  17. Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of volatility in oil prices on the degree of asymmetry in the response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases. Several time series measures of the asymmetry between the responses of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases and several measures of the oil price volatility are constructed. In all models, the degree of asymmetry in gasoline prices declines with an increase in oil price volatility. The results support the oligopolistic coordination theory as a likely explanation of the observed asymmetry and are not consistent with the standard search theory and the search theory with Bayesian updating. (author)

  18. The volatility of stock market prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  19. Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sunega, Petr; Lux, Martin; Zemčík, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2014), s. 70-78 ISSN 2336-2839 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/12/1446 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 ; RVO:67985998 Keywords : econometrics * housing prices * price bubbles Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  20. Why fuel prices differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rietveld, P.; Woudenberg, S. van

    2005-01-01

    Fuel taxes differ largely between countries. This paper reviews a number of considerations from the theory of public finance that may explain these differences. Based on a multiple regression model, we find for tax competition in Europe that small countries tend to be more aggressive than large countries by charging lower fuel taxes to attract customers from neighbouring countries. There is strong evidence that fuel is just considered as one of the many sources for government expenditure: as the share of government expenditure in GDP is higher, the fuel tax tends to be higher. No support is found for the hypothesis that fuel taxes are higher in countries where externality problems are more severe (proxied by car density of the country). In this respect, the normative literature on pricing externalities has found little support in the realities of transport policy. (author)

  1. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Zhen-Hua; Zou, Le-Le; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines carbon price volatility using data from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme from a nonlinear dynamics point of view. First, we use a random walk model, including serial correlation and variance ratio tests, to determine whether carbon price history information is fully reflected in current carbon price. The empirical research results show that carbon price is not a random walk: the price history information is not fully reflected in current carbon price. Second, use R/S, modified R/S and ARFIMA to analyse the memory of carbon price history. For the period April 2005-December 2008, the modified Hurst index of the carbon price is 0.4859 and the d value of ARFIMA is -0.1191, indicating short-term memory of the carbon price. Third, we use chaos theory to analyse the influence of the carbon market internal mechanism on carbon price, i.e., the market's positive and negative feedback mechanism and the heterogeneous environment. Chaos theory proves that the correlation dimension of carbon price increases. The maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive and large. There is no obvious complex endogenous phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics the carbon price fluctuation. The carbon market is mildly chaotic, showing both market and fractal market characteristics. Price fluctuation is not only influenced by the internal market mechanism, but is also impacted by the heterogeneous environment. Finally, we provide suggestions for regulation and development of carbon market.

  2. Effects of Idiosyncratic Volatility in Asset Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luís Leite

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the aggregate market volatility components - average volatility and average correlation - on the pricing of portfolios sorted by idiosyncratic volatility, using Brazilian data. The study investigates whether portfolios with high and low idiosyncratic volatility - in relation to the Fama and French model (1996 - have different exposures to innovations in average market volatility, and consequently, different expectations for return. The results are in line with those found for US data, although they portray the Brazilian reality. Decomposition of volatility allows the average volatility component, without the disturbance generated by the average correlation component, to better price the effects of a worsening or an improvement in the investment environment. This result is also identical to that found for US data. Average variance should thus command a risk premium. For US data, this premium is negative. According to Chen and Petkova (2012, the main reason for this negative sign is the high level of investment in research and development recorded by companies with high idiosyncratic volatility. As in Brazil this type of investment is significantly lower than in the US, it was expected that a result with the opposite sign would be found, which is in fact what occurred.

  3. Option Pricing using Realized Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    dynamics to be used for option pricing purposes in this framework, and we show that our model explains some of the mispricings found when using traditional option pricing models based on interdaily data. We then show explicitly that a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model with Normal...... Inverse Gaussian distributed innovations is the corresponding benchmark model when only daily data is used. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis using stock options for three large American companies, and we show that in all cases our model performs significantly better than the corresponding...... benchmark model estimated on return data alone. Hence the paper provides evidence on the value of using high frequency data for option pricing purposes....

  4. Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

  5. Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ying; Flynn, P.C.

    2004-01-01

    We examine electrical power price variability for 14 deregulated markets. Power price volatility is measured by price velocity, the daily average of the absolute value of price change per hour. Deregulated markets show a wide variability in price velocity. Some price velocity is expected and arises from the daily diurnal price pattern, which differs significantly between markets. Even when the expected daily variability in price is removed, the residual unexpected variability differs between markets. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent and have low values of unexpected price velocity. These markets create a climate conducive to consumers facing the market through real time pricing and shaping consumption behaviors in response to price changes. Other markets, for example, South Australia and Alberta, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to avoid demand side management and escape risk through hedging mechanisms

  6. Motor fuel prices in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdogdu, Erkan

    2014-01-01

    The world's most expensive motor fuel (gasoline, diesel and LPG) is sold most likely in the Republic of Turkey. This paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in Turkey. First of all, the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices, namely motor fuel taxes in Turkey. Then, it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in Turkey using an econometric analysis. The findings indicate that motor fuel demand in Turkey is quite inelastic and, therefore, not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre-tax prices or taxes. Therefore, fuel market in Turkey is open to opportunistic behavior by firms (through excessive profits) and the government (through excessive taxes). Besides, the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities, including the pattern of passenger transportation, motorization rate, fuel use, total kilometers traveled and CO 2 emissions from road transportation. The impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in Turkey and Turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study. - Highlights: • The key issues (e.g. taxes) related to motor fuel prices in Turkey are explored. • Their impact on transport activities and income distribution is also investigated. • An econometric analysis is performed to estimate motor fuel demand in Turkey. • Motor fuel demand in Turkey is found to be quite inelastic. • Turkish fuel market is open to opportunistic behavior by firms and the government

  7. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis-an application to oil prices in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian; Møller, Flemming

    2010-01-01

    in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport...

  8. Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

    2007-01-01

    Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

  9. The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, John C; White, Alan D

    1987-01-01

    One option-pricing problem which has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of European call on an asset which has a stochastic volatility. This paper examines this problem. The option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price. Numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price. It is found that the Black-Scholes price frequently overprices options and that the ...

  10. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

  11. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

  12. Price volatility and banking in green certificate markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik Schrøder; Baldursson, Fridrik M.; Mortensen, Jørgen Birk

    2006-01-01

    the paper shows that the introduction of banking of GCs may reduce price volatility considerably and lead to increased social surplus. Banking lowers average prices and is therefore not necessarily to the benefit of 'green producers'. Prooposed price bounds on GC-prices will reduce the importance of banking...

  13. Reducing Fuel Volatility. An Additional Benefit From Blending Bio-fuels?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailis, R. [Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511 (United States); Koebl, B.S. [Utrecht University, Science Technology and Society, Budapestlaan 6, 3584 CD Utrecht (Netherlands); Sanders, M. [Utrecht University, Utrecht School of Economics, Janskerkhof 12, 3512 BL Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-02-15

    Oil price volatility harms economic growth. Diversifying into different fuel types can mitigate this effect by reducing volatility in fuel prices. Producing bio-fuels may thus have additional benefits in terms of avoided damage to macro-economic growth. In this study we investigate trends and patterns in the determinants of a volatility gain in order to provide an estimate of the tendency and the size of the volatility gain in the future. The accumulated avoided loss from blending gasoline with 20 percent ethanol-fuel estimated for the US economy amounts to 795 bn. USD between 2010 and 2019 with growing tendency. An amount that should be considered in cost-benefit analysis of bio-fuels.

  14. Effect of oil price on Nigeria’s food price volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijeoma C. Nwoko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of oil price on the volatility of food price in Nigeria. It specifically considers the long-run, short-run, and causal relationship between these variables. Annual data on oil price and individual prices of maize, rice, sorghum, soya beans, and wheat spanning from 2000 to 2013 were used. The price volatility for each crop was obtained using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (GARCH (1, 1 model. Our measure of oil price is the Refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron unit root tests show that all the variables are integrated of order one, I (1. Therefore, we use the Johansen co-integration test to examine the long-run relationship. Our results show that there is no long-run relationship between oil price and any of the individual food price volatility. Thus, we implement a VAR instead of a VECM to investigate the short-run relationship. The VAR model result revealed a positive and significant short-run relationship between oil price and each of the selected food price volatility with exception of that of rice and wheat price volatility. These results were further confirmed by the impulse response functions. The Granger causality test result indicates a unidirectional causality from oil price to maize, soya bean, and sorghum price volatilities but does not show such relationship for rice and wheat price volatilities. We draw some policy implications of these findings.

  15. Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban; Soytas, Ugur; Gupta, Rangan

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines whether there is a volatility transmission between oil prices and financial stress by means of the volatility spillover test. We employ WTI crude oil prices and Cleveland financial stress index for the period 1991–2014 and divide the sample into pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis periods due to the downward trend in oil price in 2008. The volatility model estimations indicate that oil prices and financial stress index are dominated by long-run volatility. The volatility spillover causality test supports evidence on risk transfer from oil prices to financial stress before the crisis and from financial stress to oil prices after the crisis. The impulse response analysis shows that the volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis and is characterized by higher and long-lived effects during the crisis. Our results have implications for both policy makers and investors, and for future work. -- Highlights: •Volatility spillover between oil prices and financial stress index is examined. •Analysis is conducted for sub-periods: pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis •Oil prices spill on financial stress before the crisis, but spillover reversed after the crisis. •Volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis. •Implications for investors and policy makers are discussed

  16. Detecting instability in the volatility of carbon prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France)

    2011-01-15

    This article investigates the presence of outliers in the volatility of carbon prices. We compute three different measures of volatility for European Union Allowances, based on daily data (EGARCH model), option prices (implied volatility), and intraday data (realized volatility). Based on the methodology developed by Zeileis et al. (2003) and Zeileis (2006), we detect instability in the volatility of carbon prices based on two kinds of tests: retrospective tests (OLS-/Recursive-based CUSUM processes, F-statistics, and residual sum of squares), and forward-looking tests (by monitoring structural changes recursively or with moving estimates). We show evidence of strong shifts mainly for the EGARCH and IV models during the time period. Overall, we suggest that yearly compliance events, and growing uncertainties in post-Kyoto international agreements, may explain the instability in the volatility of carbon prices. (author)

  17. MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OSAZEE GODWIN OMOROKUNWA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock price volatility and few macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, GDP and interest rate. Annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2011 was used for this study. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH model was used in the empirical analysis. The findings of the study showed that stock prices in Nigeria are volatile. And that past information in the market have effect on stock price volatility in Nigeria. In addition, the study showed that interest rate and exchange have a weak effect on stock price volatility while inflation is the main determinant of stock price volatility in Nigeria. The authors recommend that inflation should be targeted as the main monetary policy aimed at directing the stock market.

  18. Higher fuel and food prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui; Maximiano, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis...... analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer-term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model...

  19. Volatility Analysis of Bitcoin Price Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukáš Pichl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bitcoin has the largest share in the total capitalization of cryptocurrency markets currently reaching above 70 billion USD. In this work we focus on the price of Bitcoin in terms of standard currencies and their volatility over the last five years. The average day-to-day return throughout this period is 0.328%, amounting in exponential growth from 6 USD to over 4,000 USD per 1 BTC at present. Multi-scale analysis is performed from the level of the tick data, through the 5 min, 1 hour and 1 day scales. Distribution of trading volumes (1 sec, 1 min, 1 hour and 1 day aggregated from the Kraken BTCEUR tick data is provided that shows the artifacts of algorithmic trading (selling transactions with volume peaks distributed at integer multiples of BTC unit. Arbitrage opportunities are studied using the EUR, USD and CNY currencies. Whereas the arbitrage spread for EUR-USD currency pair is found narrow at the order of a percent, at the 1 hour sampling period the arbitrage spread for USD-CNY (and similarly EUR-CNY is found to be more substantial, reaching as high as above 5 percent on rare occasions. The volatility of BTC exchange rates is modeled using the day-to-day distribution of logarithmic return, and the Realized Volatility, sum of the squared logarithmic returns on 5-minute basis. In this work we demonstrate that the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for Realized Volatility Andersen et al. (2007 applies reasonably well to the BTCUSD dataset. Finally, a feed-forward neural network with 2 hidden layers using 10-day moving window sampling daily return predictors is applied to estimate the next-day logarithmic return. The results show that such an artificial neural network prediction is capable of approximate capture of the actual log return distribution; more sophisticated methods, such as recurrent neural networks and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory techniques from deep learning may be necessary for higher prediction accuracy.

  20. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  1. Can Equity Volatility Explain the Global Loan Pricing Puzzle?

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis Gaul; Pinar Uysal

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines whether unobservable differences in firm volatility are responsible for the global loan pricing puzzle, which is the observation that corporate loan interest rates appear to be lower in Europe than in the United States. We analyze whether equity volatility, an error prone measure of firm volatility, can explain this difference in loan spreads. We show that using equity volatility in OLS regressions will result in biased and inconsistent estimates of the difference in U.S. ...

  2. Consequences for option pricing of a long memory in volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, S J

    2001-01-01

    The economic consequences of a long memory assumption about volatility are documented, by comparing implied volatilities for option prices obtained from short and long memory volatility processes. Numerical results are given for options on the S&P 100 index from 1984 to 1998, with lives up to two years. The long memory assumption is found to have a significant impact upon the term structure of implied volatilities and a relatively minor impact upon smile effects. These conclusions are importa...

  3. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  4. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  5. The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Bashar, Omar H.M.N.; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production (IPI). ► The transitory component of the oil price volatility has an adverse impact on the US IPI. ► The transitory oil price volatility induces higher volatility in CPI, commodity prices and IPI. -- Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production by decomposing oil price volatility into permanent and transitory components. The decompositions provide important evidence on sources and asymmetric effects of oil price volatility. To estimate the component structure of volatility and to analyse the dynamic impacts of the volatility components, the study uses a threshold based CGARCH and VAR modelling over a period from 1980 to 2010 for the US economy. The CGARCH model estimates show significant asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the transitory oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the estimated VAR models reveal that there is a significant and prolonged dampening impact of increased transitory oil price volatility on industrial production. The results also suggest that shocks to transitory component induce increased volatility in the general price level and non-fuel commodity prices in the US. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that the transitory volatility is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production. These results provide additional insights on the sources of oil price uncertainty and point to the need to direct US energy policies towards stabilising short-term uncertainties in oil prices.

  6. FUEL PRICES AND CAR SALES

    OpenAIRE

    Vlad Cârstea

    2008-01-01

    Automotive industry is a very important economic sector that is highly responsive to changes in the world economy. The fuel price is the biggest enemy of car manufacturers. This is a compared analysis between Europe and Romania regarding new car registrations.

  7. Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

  8. The Effects of High and Volatile Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artus, Patrick; Autume, Antoine d'; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Coeure, Benoit; Kalantizs, Yannick; Klein, Caroline; Guesnerie, Roger; Callonnec, Gael; Gaudin, Thomas; Moisan, Francois; Lescaroux, Francois; Clerc, Marie; Marcus, Vincent; Lalanne, Guy; Pouliquen, Erwan; Simon, Olivier; Mignon, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting work carried out by a number of institutions shows how difficult it is to accurately predict trends in oil prices. The authors of this report do not carry out this forecasting exercise, but they share the same conclusions about the main features of oil price trends in the near and medium term: a rise in oil prices is inevitable, and will be accompanied by significant volatility. This expectation is based on detailed analysis of oil price determinants, their past variations and forecasts as to their future trends. On the supply side, like with all goods, the price of oil reflects production costs: extraction, transport and refining costs. Alongside this essentially technological component, more specific determinants are at play: the noncompetitive economic rent, which largely stems from OPEC's hold on the market, the scarcity rent on all non-renewable natural resources (this rent increases at a rate equal to the real interest rate according to Hotelling's rule), various taxes (mainly the TIPP domestic tax on oil products in France) and a new component that is set to gain importance in the years ahead, namely the implicit price of carbon emissions (which may take the form of a carbon tax or the cost of emission permits). It is difficult to isolate these different components and even more difficult to quantify them, but the authors' detailed analysis shows that most predictable supply-side developments will concur to bring about a rise in oil prices. On the demand side, too, forecasts and projections converge towards a rise in oil prices. Demand trends depend on crude oil prices, taxes, economic growth and energy and environmental policies. In most developed countries, the trend is towards a slowdown in demand growth and some countries are even seeing a decline in demand. In addition to the economic crisis, two explanations are put forward. The levels reached by crude oil and fuel prices in July 2008 clearly brought the price-elasticity of

  9. Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

    2013-02-01

    According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

  10. Oil price and food price volatility dynamics: The case of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijeoma C. Nwoko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the long and short run relationships between oil price and food price volatility as well as the causal link between them. The study used annual food price volatility index from FAO from 2000 to 2013 and crude oil price from U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA from 2000 to 2013. The Johansen and Jesulius co-integration test revealed that there is a long run relationship between oil price and domestic food price volatility. The vector error correction model indicated a positive and significant short run relationship between oil price and food price volatility. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality with causality running from oil price to food price volatility but not vice versa. It is recommended that policies and interventions that will help reduce uncertainty about food prices such as improved market information, trade policies and investment in research and development among others should be encouraged. Also to reduce the effect of oil price shock, it is recommended that government should subsidise pump price of refined oil, seek alternative sources of energy and there should be less dependence on oil for fertilizer production.

  11. Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

    2008-01-01

    With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

  12. What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

    2011-01-01

    The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

  13. Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Povoledo, L.

    2012-01-01

    If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

  14. The world price of jump and volatility risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2006-01-01

    Jump and volatility risk are important for understanding equity returns, option pricing and asset allocation. This paper is the first to study international integration of markets for jump and volatility risk, using data on index options for each of the three main global markets: US S&P 500 index

  15. Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

  16. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

  17. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

  18. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hernandez, M.A.; Gardebroek, C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. The estimation results indicate a higher

  19. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

    observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...

  20. Reactive flash volatilization of fluid fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Lanny D.; Dauenhauer, Paul J.; Dreyer, Bradon J.; Salge, James R.

    2013-01-08

    The invention provides methods for the production of synthesis gas. More particularly, various embodiments of the invention relate to systems and methods for volatilizing fluid fuel to produce synthesis gas by using a metal catalyst on a solid support matrix.

  1. Food price volatility and hunger alleviation – can Cannes work?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajkowicz Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent years have seen global food prices rise and become more volatile. Price surges in 2008 and 2011 held devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of people and negatively impacted many more. Today one billion people are hungry. The issue is a high priority for many international agencies and national governments. At the Cannes Summit in November 2011, the G20 leaders agreed to implement five objectives aiming to mitigate food price volatility and protect vulnerable persons. To succeed, the global community must now translate these high level policy objectives into practical actions. In this paper, we describe challenges and unresolved dilemmas before the global community in implementing these five objectives. The paper describes recent food price volatility trends and an evaluation of possible causes. Special attention is given to climate change and water scarcity, which have the potential to impact food prices to a much greater extent in coming decades. We conclude the world needs an improved knowledge base and new analytical capabilities, developed in parallel with the implementation of practical policy actions, to manage food price volatility and reduce hunger and malnutrition. This requires major innovations and paradigm shifts by the global community.

  2. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  3. The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how oil price volatility affects the strategic investment decisions of a large panel of US firms. This paper uses key insights from the real options literature to develop a model of a company's strategic investment and shows how changes in oil price volatility can impact strategic investment decisions. The model is estimated using recently developed generalized method of moment estimation techniques for panel data sets. Empirical results are presented to show that there is a U shaped relationship between oil price volatility and firm investment. This is consistent with the predictions from the strategic growth options literature. The results should be useful to decision makers, investors, managers, policy makers and others who need to make strategic investment decisions in an uncertain world. (author)

  4. DOES FEAR (VIX INDEX INCITE VOLATILITY IN FOOD PRICES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökhan Çınar

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Globally, the volatility trend in food prices has continued to increase. Different data give the impression that this volatility may be caused by the international finance markets’ propagation effect. For this reason, the study focused on the VIX (fear index that is used to measure the movement in Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The main objective of the study is to analyze the degree of volatility between the VIX index and the wheat market. The research is comprised of monthly data obtained from year 2000 to 2015. The study employs the BEKK GARCH method. The findings show that the variance shocks in the fear index damage food prices. The results may be useful to policy makers in researching the causes of changes in the prices of food commodity and taking necessary measures.

  5. Asymptotic Behavior of the Stock Price Distribution Density and Implied Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulisashvili, Archil; Stein, Elias M.

    2010-01-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of the squared volatility process and the density of the stock price process in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model are obtained.

  6. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis-an application to oil prices in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Thomas C., E-mail: tcj@transport.dtu.d [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2010-01-15

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn.

  7. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Thomas C. [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moeller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2010-01-15

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

  8. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, Thomas C.; Moeller, Flemming

    2010-01-01

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

  9. Bayesian Option Pricing Framework with Stochastic Volatility for FX Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of stochastic volatility (SV models in the option pricing literature usually assumes that the market has sufficient option data to calibrate the model’s risk-neutral parameters. When option data are insufficient or unavailable, market practitioners must estimate the model from the historical returns of the underlying asset and then transform the resulting model into its risk-neutral equivalent. However, the likelihood function of an SV model can only be expressed in a high-dimensional integration, which makes the estimation a highly challenging task. The Bayesian approach has been the classical way to estimate SV models under the data-generating (physical probability measure, but the transformation from the estimated physical dynamic into its risk-neutral counterpart has not been addressed. Inspired by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH option pricing approach by Duan in 1995, we propose an SV model that enables us to simultaneously and conveniently perform Bayesian inference and transformation into risk-neutral dynamics. Our model relaxes the normality assumption on innovations of both return and volatility processes, and our empirical study shows that the estimated option prices generate realistic implied volatility smile shapes. In addition, the volatility premium is almost flat across strike prices, so adding a few option data to the historical time series of the underlying asset can greatly improve the estimation of option prices.

  10. Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Lupu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

  11. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  12. Impact of Dividend Policy on Share Price Volatility: UK Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    ZHANG, YIDING

    2012-01-01

    This research attempts to shed light on the linkage between dividend policy and share price volatility in the context of UK. As a rework and extension of pervious research, the study is expected to reveal the potential impact of dividend change on the fluctuation of stock price, taking existing theoretical and empirical framework as basis. A snapshot of UK economy is provided after the preceding introductory section. The third chapter consists of a review of theories and empirical studies. Wi...

  13. Interest Rate Derivative Pricing with Stochastic Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, B.

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of exotic derivative pricing models is to enable financial institutions to quantify and manage their financial risk, arising from large books of portfolios. These portfolios consist of many non-standard exotic financial products. Risk is managed by means of the evaluation of sensitivity

  14. Ambiguity and Volatility : Asset Pricing Implications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pataracchia, B.

    2011-01-01

    Using a simple dynamic consumption-based asset pricing model, this paper explores the implications of a representative investor with smooth ambiguity averse preferences [Klibano¤, Marinacci and Mukerji, Econometrica (2005)] and provides a comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion.

  15. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  16. Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

    2006-01-01

    Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  17. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  18. Volatilities, Traded Volumes, and Price Increments in Derivative Securities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyungsik; Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, Soo Yong; Scalas, Enrico

    2007-03-01

    We apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to the statistics of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. For our case, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to the inherent higher-order correlation not detected by applying directly the DFA to logarithmic increments of the KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of futures prices and to generate the geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It is really shown from comparing the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments makes the volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes may be supported the hypothesis of price changes.

  19. Helping consumers manage their exposure to volatile natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campion, A.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation provided a customer's view of forward gas prices and outlined different buying behaviours in terms of characteristics of novice and seasoned buyers. It presented a portfolio overview of natural gas and described the risks facing customers in terms of fixed prices and fixed volumes. An energy smart price plan considers floating gas prices instead of a fixed market price. An automobile manufacturer was presented as an example of a gas consumer that would prefer to manage internal costs of production rather than manage gas volatility. The importance of understanding the drivers of individual businesses was emphasized. Natural Resources Canada and the Office of Energy Efficiency offer financial incentives for manufacturers for energy retrofit feasibility studies that result in energy retrofit projects in lighting, heating, boiler replacement, chiller upgrades, and heat recovery. tabs., figs

  20. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  1. Stock Price Informativeness and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Jingrong Lin; Khondkar Karim; Clairmont Carter

    2014-01-01

    This study attempts to address two research questions on the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness. First, whether idiosyncratic return volatility is a valid proxy for stock price informativeness in emerging markets, and if it is, whether there exists a monotonic relationship between the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness throughout the whole sample. We find that the idiosyncratic return volatility reflects the stock price informativeness...

  2. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  3. Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

    2016-01-01

    We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

  4. Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorella Fatone

    2012-01-01

    model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

  5. Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna

    2009-01-01

    By using a novel approach in this paper, (λ,σ 2 )-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news

  6. Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Rentschler, Jun E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analy...

  7. Forward Volatility Contract Pricing in the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Magalhães Manteiga

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work we consider the pricing of a special class of volatility derivatives, the so-called variance swaps. The fair value of a variance swap is equal to the expected value of the realized variance of the underlying of the swap during the lifetime of the contract. It is shown how this expected value can be computed by means of an exotic option with logarithmic pay-off. We show how to statically replicate this pay-off in terms of a basket of synthetic vanilla call and put options. We apply this construction to the TNLP4 ticker of BOVESPA and synthetize a basket with pure exposure to volatility using actual market prices.

  8. Dividend Policy and Price Volatility. Empirical Evidence from Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Imad Zeyad Ramadan

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the dividend policy on the share price volatility for the Jordanian industrial firms. All the 77 Jordanian industrial firms listed at Amman Stock Exchange for twelve years from 2000 to 2011 have been selected. Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis and a cross-sectional time series multiple least square regression method have been used to present data analysis, test hypotheses, and achieve the objective of the study. The experientia...

  9. The European power industry : asymmetries and price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isabel, M.; Soares, R.T.

    2005-01-01

    A time series model was used to obtain empirical evidence on the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. The model was based on a single market operator and 2 system operators. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to model and forecast conditional variances related to the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. A correlogram analysis was used to model the processes behind the time series. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were used to demonstrate that the the derived electricity spot price series was not a random walk. Lags in various areas were attributed to the fact that a large proportion of electricity is consumed by industry. Weekly cycles justified values presented by a lags multiple of 7. Results of the modelling study showed that the method can be used in the risk management of electricity portfolios as well as in the pricing and hedging of different types of derivatives in electricity markets. It was concluded that further work is needed to reduce instability and asymmetries between generators, consumers and regulators. 16 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs

  10. New evidence on the asymmetry in gasoline price: volatility versus margin?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abosedra, S.; Radchenko, S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines recent evidence on the role that gasoline margins and volatility play in the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to changes in oil prices at different stages of distribution process. In a regression model with margins, we find that margins are statistically significant in explaining asymmetry between crude oil and spot gasoline prices, spot gasoline prices and wholesale gasoline prices, and wholesale gasoline prices and retail prices. In a regression model with input volatility, we find evidence that volatility is responsible for asymmetry between wholesale gasoline prices and retail gasoline prices. When both, gasoline margins and gasoline volatility are included in the regression, we find evidence supporting margins, the search theory, volatility, the oligopolistic coordination theory and an explanation of asymmetry. (author)

  11. 10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to calculate delivered fuel expenses must reflect the petitioner's delivered price of the alternate fuel and...

  12. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  13. Price Limit and Volatility in Taiwan Stock Exchange: Some Additional Evidence from the Extreme Value Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Aktham I. Maghyereh; Haitham A. Al Zoubi; Haitham Nobanee

    2007-01-01

    We reexamine the effects of price limits on stock volatility of Taiwan Stock Exchange using a new methodology based on the Extreme-Value technique. Consistent with the advocates of price limits, we find that stock market volatility is sharply moderated under more restrictive price limits.

  14. THE VOLATILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRICING OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    OpenAIRE

    Benth, Fred Espen; Saltyte-Benth, Jurate

    2005-01-01

    We propose an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with seasonal volatility to model the time dynamics of daily average temperatures. The model is fitted to almost 43 years of daily observations recorded in Stockholm, one of the European cities for which there is a trade in weather futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Explicit pricing dynamics for futures contracts written on the number of heating/cooling degree-days (so-called HDD/CDD-futures) and the cumulative average daily ...

  15. Oil price volatility, financial regulation and energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    In October of 2009, the French Ministry of Economy asked the author to chair a work group on oil price volatility. The report resulting from that work was submitted to the minister on February 9, 2010. Based on the report, this article focuses on three major elements: (i) the operation of the oil market, with interacting physical basics and financial basics (ii) financial market regulation, more specifically commodities-derived product markets and current work in that area and (iii) the lessons one can draw from that exercise in terms of energy policy. Significant projects have been initiated on global, European and national levels. (author)

  16. Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

    In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...

  17. Report of the work-group on oil price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report proposes a detailed analysis of the past and possible evolution of oil markets in terms of price volatility, financial strategies and pricing. It discusses current reflections and actions aiming at improving oil market operation: the Joint Oil Data Initiative or JODI for oil data transparency, the works of the International Energy Forum (IEF), and the conceivable reforms of the oil financial markets. Then, it proposes and discusses four main strategic orientations for a better knowledge of oil markets by France and the improvement of their operation and transparency: to support IEF initiatives, to apply to oil financial markets the global orientations defined by the G20, to set additional specific rules, and to propose a true oil strategy for the European Union. These orientations are then broken up in 22 propositions

  18. Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Wing Ho

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.

  19. Quantifying the value that wind power provides as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2002-05-31

    Advocates of renewable energy have long argued that wind power and other renewable technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that wind and other renewables provide. This paper attempts to quantify this benefit by equating it with the cost of achieving price stability through other means, particularly gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps). We find that over the past two years, natural gas consumers have had to pay a premium of roughly 0.50 cents/kWh over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost is potentially large enough to tip the scales away from new investments in natural gasfired generation and in favor of investments in wind power and other renewable technologies.

  20. Fuel Price Effects on Readiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    have also excluded liquefied propane gas ( LPG ), from this study. 10 through four IDIQ...Wide Fuel Management 1. DLA’s Role DLA-E has the mission of acquiring, storing, selling, and distributing energy including petroleum, natural gas ...energy, and installations also use energy in the form of electricity (11 percent), natural gas (8 percent), and coal (2 percent). See Schwartz, Blakely

  1. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  2. Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie

    2008-01-01

    We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data

  3. Predicting Argentine Jet Fuel Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    economics, engineering, and the social and biological sciences (Kutner, 2005:2), but successful application of this method requires not only a deep...situations that affected the country. This crisis had politic, economic and social implications. Five presidents governed in a two month period. The...Scheimberg Sebastian. “Comentario al trabajo de German Coloma: Analisys of the behavior of the Argentine fuel market”. Political Economy Asociation

  4. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  5. Recovery of time-dependent volatility in option pricing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Zui-Cha; Hon, Y. C.; Isakov, V.

    2016-11-01

    In this paper we investigate an inverse problem of determining the time-dependent volatility from observed market prices of options with different strikes. Due to the non linearity and sparsity of observations, an analytical solution to the problem is generally not available. Numerical approximation is also difficult to obtain using most of the existing numerical algorithms. Based on our recent theoretical results, we apply the linearisation technique to convert the problem into an inverse source problem from which recovery of the unknown volatility function can be achieved. Two kinds of strategies, namely, the integral equation method and the Landweber iterations, are adopted to obtain the stable numerical solution to the inverse problem. Both theoretical analysis and numerical examples confirm that the proposed approaches are effective. The work described in this paper was partially supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. CityU 101112) and grants from the NNSF of China (Nos. 11261029, 11461039), and NSF grants DMS 10-08902 and 15-14886 and by Emylou Keith and Betty Dutcher Distinguished Professorship at the Wichita State University (USA).

  6. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-05-15

    Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available--in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as $0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

  7. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-01-01

    Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments-made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001-have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available-in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as$0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy

  8. Adaptation of warrant price with Black Scholes model and historical volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Khairu Azlan Abd; Idris, Mohd Fazril Izhar Mohd; Saian, Rizauddin; Daud, Wan Suhana Wan

    2015-05-01

    This project discusses about pricing warrant in Malaysia. The Black Scholes model with non-dividend approach and linear interpolation technique was applied in pricing the call warrant. Three call warrants that are listed in Bursa Malaysia were selected randomly from UiTM's datastream. The finding claims that the volatility for each call warrants are different to each other. We have used the historical volatility which will describes the price movement by which an underlying share is expected to fluctuate within a period. The Black Scholes model price that was obtained by the model will be compared with the actual market price. Mispricing the call warrants will contribute to under or over valuation price. Other variables like interest rate, time to maturity date, exercise price and underlying stock price are involves in pricing call warrants as well as measuring the moneyness of call warrants.

  9. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Price fluctuations that partially comove with demand are a specific feature inherent to liberalized electricity markets. The regulatory authority in Great Britain, however, believed that sometimes electricity prices were significantly higher than what was expected and, therefore, introduced price-cap regulation and divestment series. In this study, I analyze how the introduced institutional changes and regulatory reforms affected the dynamics of daily electricity prices in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market during 1990–2001. This research finds that the introduction of price-cap regulation did achieve the goal of lowering the price level at the cost of higher price volatility. Later, the first series of divestments is found to be successful at lowering price volatility, which however happens at the cost of a higher price level. Finally, this study also documents that the second series of divestments was more successful at lowering both the price level and volatility. - Author-Highlights: • The impact of regulation on the dynamics of electricity prices is examined. • Price-cap regulation has decreased the level at the cost of higher volatility. • The first series of divestments has reversed the trade-off. • The reversed trade-off is explained as an indication of tacit collusion. • The second series of divestments is found generally successful

  10. Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan : The Impact of Joining the WTO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); B-W. Huang (Bing-Wen); M-G. Chen (Meng-Gu)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractPrices in the hog industry in Taiwan are determined according to an auction system. There are significant differences in hog prices before, during and after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). The paper models growth rates and volatility in daily hog prices in Taiwan from 23

  11. Loss aversion and price volatility as determinants of attitude towards and preference for variable price in the Swedish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juliusson, E. Asgeir; Gamble, Amelie; Gaerling, Tommy

    2007-01-01

    The results of a survey of a random sample of 488 Swedish residents showed that a positive attitude towards and preference for a variable price agreement with the incumbent electricity supplier was negatively affected by loss aversion, and a positive attitude also negatively affected by beliefs about price volatility. Although correlated with attitude and preference, age, education, and current choice of a variable price agreement had no independent effects. Income and current electricity costs had no effects. (author)

  12. Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edesiri Godsday Okoro

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The study examined oil price volatility and economic growth in Nigeria linking oil price volatility, crude oil prices, oil revenue and Gross Domestic Product. Using quarterly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators (various issues spanning 1980-2010, a non‐linear model of oil price volatility and economic growth was estimated using the VAR technique. The study revealed that oil price volatility has significantly influenced the level of economic growth in Nigeria although; the result additionally indicated a negative relationship between the oil price volatility and the level of economic growth. Furthermore, the result also showed that the Nigerian economy survived on crude oil, to such extent that the country‘s budget is tied to particular price of crude oil. This is not a good sign for a developing economy, more so that the country relies almost entirely on revenue of the oil sector as a source of foreign exchange earnings. This therefore portends some dangers for the economic survival of Nigeria. It was recommended amongst others that there should be a strong need for policy makers to focus on policy that will strengthen/stabilize the economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue. Finally, there should be reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline, aggressive saving of proceeds from oil booms in future in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil price volatility in future.

  13. Minerals Price Increases and Volatility: Causes and Consequences

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cooney, Stephen; Nanto, Dick K

    2008-01-01

    .... Prices have at least nearly doubled between 2001 and 2008. In the case of steel, the most widely used industrial metal, the rise in price appears largely driven by the high prices of iron ore and steel scrap...

  14. The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statisticaltech......We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric...... components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) modelfor the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity of implied volatility inthe forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility is a biased and inefficient forecast in thebond market. However, implied volatility does...

  15. Leveraging the benefits of storage as a risk management tool : strategies to offset price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledene, B.

    2002-01-01

    The Storage and Hub Services of the Alberta Energy Company provides the largest independent gas storage and operation in North America. It has grown from one facility in 1988 in Canada to 4 facilities and 2 leases with total storage capacity of 133 billion cubic feet in Canada and the United States. It established the AECO C Hub in Alberta, the major pricing point for gas in the western Canadian supply basin. It was also the first company to use, and continue to use, horizontal well technology in natural gas storage. AEC Storage has played a leading role in regulatory proceedings regarding the interconnect of its facilities and transmission systems. It also established the first independent gas storage facility in California, where it promoted true competition in the natural gas market. In October 2001, natural gas storage inventories in Canada and the United States were at a near record level of 3.56 Tcf. The only other time inventories were that full was at the end of October 1998. The paper illustrated how prices behaved during the winters of 98/99 and beyond. It was noted that low natural gas prices will have a strong impact on production levels since drilling is closely linked to the price of natural gas. Drilling activity is declining even in price sensitive areas such as in the Shallow Water Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. These production declines will not affect the storage situation because storage levels are currently high. Natural gas prices may rebound with significant storage withdrawals by March 2003 if the US economy recovers and if the winter is normal. Field data suggests that supplies are not keeping up with demand. The average decline rate for all active wells in western Canada is about 23 per cent. This drilling activity will have to be maintained or we will see stronger gas prices. The paper described how industry participants use storage to take advantage of price volatility with information on how to focus on storage assets, develop a

  16. Development of risk management strategies for state DOTs to effectively deal with volatile prices of transportation construction materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Volatility in price of critical materials used in transportation projects, such as asphalt cement, leads to : considerable uncertainty about project cost. This uncertainty may lead to price speculation and inflated : bid prices submitted by highway c...

  17. THE DETERMINATION OF VOLATILE COMPOSITION OF SOLID FUELS BY CHROMATOGRAPHY

    OpenAIRE

    BICA Marin; SOFRONIE Sorin; CERNAIANU Corina Dana

    2014-01-01

    The volatile materials released during the heating of solid fuels ignite at relatively low temperatures releasing heat function of their quantity and quality. This heat raises the temperature of the solid residue creating the conditions for his ignition and burning. In the case of burning of the pulverized coal the phenomenon of production, ignition and burning of volatile materials are studied in different articles.

  18. Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

    2013-07-01

    This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

  19. Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek; Blazquez, Jorge; Hunt, Lester C.; Manzano, Baltasar

    2017-01-01

    Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries' energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA and compares it to Germany and the UK, given the different evolution of the mixes and the different roles played by relative prices and policy in North America and Europe. It is found that the model explains well the evolution of the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA for the period 1980–2014, suggesting that relative fossil fuel prices generally dominated in determining the mix during this time. However, this is not the case for Germany and the UK. For both countries, the model performs well only for the period after the market-oriented reforms in the 1990s. Additionally, the volatility of private consumption and output for the pre- and post-reform periods is evaluated for Germany and the UK and it is found that the liberalized energy markets brought about a transition from coal to natural gas, but with increased macroeconomic volatility. - Highlights: • Macroeconomic analysis of the importance of prices vs policy in driving the primary fossil fuel mix. • USA primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by relative prices since the early 1980s. • Germany and UK primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by policy until 1990s. • Germany and UK primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by relative prices since early to mid-1990s. • Transition from coal to natural gas in Germany and UK increased macroeconomic volatility.

  20. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

    OpenAIRE

    Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

  1. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  2. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  3. A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

  4. Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zibin; Lohr, Luanne; Escalante, Cesar; Wetzstein, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).

  5. Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel; Schneider, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Consumers in Germany often complain that retail fuel prices usually adjust quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases and characterize this pricing pattern as market power exploitation. In this paper, we use both weekly national and daily city-specific (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne) data to investigate the extent to which retail fuel prices in Germany adjust to changes in the international crude oil price. At the national level with weekly prices, we find positive asymmetries for both gasoline and diesel within the period 2003–2007, reflecting that retail prices react more swiftly to crude oil price increases than decreases. In contrast, for 2009–2013, we observe symmetric adjustment and negative asymmetry for retail diesel and gasoline prices, respectively. The city level analysis supports our findings in the latter time period. Thus, regulatory measures aimed at the retail fuel market over recent years seem to have been effective, and, contrary to consumers' perception, we find no evidence for excessive market power or collusion. - Highlights: • The paper examines the adjustment of German retail fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices to international crude oil price changes. • An error correction model with threshold cointegration is used to investigate the price dynamics. • The findings generally point to a competitive retail fuel pricing, notwithstanding the oligopolistic market structure

  6. Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, Teresa; Gil, José M.

    2012-01-01

    This article studies the capacity of biofuels to reduce motor fuel price fluctuations. For this purpose, we study dependence between crude oil and biodiesel blend prices in Spain. Copula models are used for this purpose. Results suggest that the practice of blending biodiesel with diesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases. - Highlights: ► We study the capacity of biofuels to reduce fuel price fluctuations. ► We focus on Spanish biodiesel market. ► Biodiesel and crude oil price dependence is studied using copula functions. ► Biodiesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases.

  7. Excessive price reduction and extreme volatility in wind dominant electricity markets; solutions and emerging challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe; Mousavi, Omid Alizadeh

    2013-01-01

    High intermittency in the nature of wind power emphasize conceptual revising in the mechanisms of electricity markets with high wind power penetration levels. This paper introduces overmuch price reduction and high price volatility as two adverse consequences in future wind dominant electricity...... is developed. The paper indicates discriminatory pricing approach can be beneficial in high penetration of wind power because it alleviates high price variations and spikiness in one hand and prevents overmuch price reduction in wind dominant electricity markets on the other hand....... markets. While high price volatility imposes elevated risk levels for both electricity suppliers and consumers, excessive price reduction of electricity is a disincentive for investment in new generation capacity and might jeopardizes system adequacy in long term. A comparative study between marginal...

  8. Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Merino

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.

  9. Stock Price Volatility and Role of Dividend Policy: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Syed Akif; Noreen, Umara

    2016-01-01

    Despite years of empirical research, the linkage between dividend policy and stock price volatility remains controversial among the researchers and scholars. This research endeavors to figure out the relationship between stock price volatility and dividend policy of listed companies in Pakistan. A sample of fifty firms, based upon consistent dividend paying behavior, listed on Karachi Stock Exchange has been selected from non-financial sectors, for the period of 2005 to 2012. Multiple regress...

  10. CORPORATE DIVIDEND POLICY AND SHARE PRICE VOLATILITY:A STUDY OF THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Vijayakumar, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The research paper aims to identify the empirical relationship between Corporate Dividend policy in India and share price volatility. Design/Methodology/Approach: A sample of 197 dividend paying companies listed on the Bombay stock exchange (BSE 500) was examined from 2006 to 2010.A panel data approach was applied to identify the relationship between price volatility against dividend yield and dividend payout ratio. Findings: The findings observe a significant relationship be...

  11. The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

  12. RESPONSIVENESS OF SPATIAL PRICE VOLATILITY TO INCREASED GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION IN MAIZE GRAIN AND MAIZE MEAL MARKETING IN ZAMBIA

    OpenAIRE

    Syampaku, E.M; Mafimisebi, Taiwo Ejiola

    2014-01-01

    The study analyzed the responsiveness of maize grain and maize meal spatial price volatilities to increased government participation in maize grain marketing in Zambia using descriptive statistics and vector auto-regression (VAR). This was achieved by comparing spatial price volatility means and spatial price means for the period under increased government participation with respective means for periods under limited government participation. Also, spatial price volatilities were regressed ag...

  13. Fuel switching? Demand destruction? Gas market responses to price spikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lippe, D.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation defined fuel switching and addressed the issue regarding which consumers have the capability to switch fuels. In response to short term price aberrations, consumers with fuel switching capabilities reduce their use of one fuel and increase consumption of an alternative fuel. For example, natural gas consumption by some consumers declines in response to price spikes relative to prices of alternative fuels. This presentation also addressed the issue of differentiating between fuel switching and demand destruction. It also demonstrated how to compare gas prices versus alternative fuel prices and how to determine when consumers will likely switch fuels. Price spikes have implications for long term trends in natural gas demand, supply/demand balances and prices. The power generating sector represents a particular class of gas consumers that reduce operating rates of gas fired plants and increase operating rates of other plants. Some gas consumers even shut down plants until gas prices declines and relative economies improve. Some practical considerations for fuel switching include storage tank capacity, domestic refinery production, winter heating season, and decline in working gas storage. tabs., figs

  14. The economic cost of fuel price subsidies in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofori, Roland Oduro

    I adapt the Harberger formula for deadweight loss to develop approximations for the deadweight loss created by multiple fuel price subsidies. I also estimate the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel in Africa. I use data on fuel prices and sales in combination with my formulas and elasticity estimates to calculate the deadweight loss of fuel price subsidies in Ghana from 2009 to 2014. I show that the average efficiency cost of the gasoline and diesel price subsidies in Ghana is 0.8% of fuel price subsidy transfers. This result stresses the futility of basing subsidy reforms on economic efficiency losses, which are relatively small due to very inelastic energy demand, and the need for such reforms to be motivated by the poor-targeting of subsidies to low-income households and the impact of subsidies on government debt-financing.

  15. Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Haastrecht, A.; Lord, R.; Pelsser, A.; Schrager, D.

    2009-01-01

    We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of

  16. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2010-01-01

    The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

  17. Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Nonlinear Pricing Kernels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babaoglu, Kadir Gokhan; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven

    We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A second volatility factor is economically most i...

  18. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  19. Implicit CO_2 prices of fossil fuel use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleiniger, Reto

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to assess the efficiency of the fossil fuel taxation scheme currently in effect in Switzerland. To this end, the concept of implicit CO_2 prices is introduced, based on which prices for different fossil fuel uses are derived. Implicit CO_2 prices are defined as the difference between actual prices paid by consumers and efficient domestic fuel prices. Efficient domestic fuel prices, in turn, consist of private production costs, a uniform value added tax and only local external costs, not including external costs due to CO_2 emissions and global climate change. The resulting prices differ substantially, which suggests that there is considerable cost-saving potential in reducing CO_2 emissions in Switzerland. For passenger cars and air traffic, the implicit prices are negative. For these uses, higher fuel charges would therefore be beneficial from a purely domestic perspective, i.e., without considering the negative repercussions of global warming. - Highlights: •Efficient fossil fuel policy must take into account local and global externalities. •Implicit CO_2 prices are applied as efficiency indicator of fossil energy policy. •Implicit CO_2 prices vary strongly for different fossil fuel uses in Switzerland. •There is a large cost-saving potential in terms of reducing CO_2 emissions.

  20. Dividend policy and share price volatility: UK evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Hussainey, Khaled; Mgbame, Chijoke Oscar; Chijoke Mgbame, Aruoriwo M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between dividend policy and share price changes in the UK stock market. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple regression analyses are used to explore the association between share price changes and both dividend yield and dividend payout ratio. Findings – A positive relation is found between dividend yield and stock price changes, and a negative relation between dividend payout ratio and stock price changes. In a...

  1. Pricing European option with transaction costs under the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Tian; Wu, Min; Zhou, Ze-Min; Jing, Wei-Shu

    2012-02-01

    This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model with transaction costs. Through the 'anchoring and adjustment' argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained.

  2. Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Non-Monotonic Pricing Kernels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babaoglu, Kadir; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven L.

    We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A U-shaped pricing kernel is economically most im...

  3. The transmission and management of price volatility in food supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assefa, Tsion Taye

    2016-01-01

    The 2006-2011 period has been marked by increased volatility in food an agricultural commodity prices at a global level. In the EU, the continuous liberalization of agricultural markets under the Common Agricultural Policy has led to the exposure of EU agricultural to increasing market price

  4. Jet fuels of higher volatility: An airline view

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trimble, M.H.

    1982-05-01

    Use of jet fuels of higher volatility is reviewed by some airlines periodically on a routine basis. Most often, however, airlines become concerned when aviation kerosine supply problems are encountered or anticipated. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the known principles of fuel selection and how they influence airline consideration.

  5. Regional prices in the Swedish wood-fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillring, Bengt

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyses, through a statistical survey, the regional distribution of prices on the commercial wood-fuel market for district heating plants and the pellets market for single family houses. The existing market watch of the national Swedish wood-fuel market has been developed for both refined and unrefined wood-fuels. The last five years the trend for wood-fuel prices on the district heating market has been stable, with a slight increase in the price of refined wood-fuels. However, on the young and fast-growing household market for pellets, prices have increased 12% during the last three years. The distribution of prices for northern, middle and southern Sweden indicates differences within 5% between the regions. The limited price difference between Swedish regions are a product of a large domestic supply and an increasing trade among regions in Europe, putting pressure on prices. Regional differences, mirrored as transportation distances and local production costs are key factors that could explain this regional price variation. However, the development of a commercial market with less regulation tends to level out prices. Consumers on the household market purchase small quantities and do not have the same possibility as district heating companies to take advantage of the oversupply opportunity and thus face a faster price development. The weaker market position of the consumers also tends to give homogeneous prices between regions of the residential sector. (Author)

  6. The world price of jump and volatility risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Maenhout, P.

    2013-01-01

    We study international integration of markets for jump and volatility risk, using index option data for the main global markets. To explain the cross-section of expected option returns we focus on return-based multi-factor models. For each market separately, we provide evidence that volatility and

  7. Towards sustained high oil prices and increasingly volatile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auverlot, Dominique; Teillant, Aude; Rech, Olivier

    2012-09-01

    It is particularly difficult to predict the evolution of global oil production and its ability to meet the demand: the main uncertainties are related to the magnitude of the growth of emerging countries, more or less rapid decline in the production of major oil fields current events as well as natural or accidental, but especially geopolitics, which may affect, at any time, production. In a tight market today, the rapid growth of emerging economies, disruption of the oil supply chain world, even its mere mention, could cause short-term loss of excess production capacity - largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia - an increase substantial progress and, as contemplated by the International Atomic Energy imbalances between global oil supply and demand. If, after 2020, production of conventional oil begins to decline and the demand from emerging markets continues to grow, more massive imbalances may arise, leading to potential geopolitical tensions. Control would then demand the best answer. Otherwise, the resources of unconventional hydrocarbons, considerable expected to meet the demand, provided that their development is fast enough and their operating conditions are environmentally friendly. A consensus is emerging today on keeping oil prices high (above $ 100 / barrel) and volatile in the coming years, allowing some producing countries to pursue their development, but for France amplifying the negative effects on the economic growth oil bill (more than 49 billion euros in 2011) weighs more heavily in our trade deficit. In all cases, climate issues, the weight of the oil bill on our economy, securing our energy supply and technical uncertainties or geopolitical oil production call for reducing our oil consumption, accelerated motion the transition to a low carbon economy and development of our own energy resources. Contents: - Current analysis of oil reserves; - Uncertainties about the evolution of world oil production; - What is the potential long-term oil production

  8. Efficient "Myopic" Asset Pricing in General Equilibrium: A Potential Pitfall in Excess Volatility Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Willem H. Buiter

    1987-01-01

    Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bo...

  9. FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Dal Bianco

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH. Our results obtained, employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far as a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is found. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the policy of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

  10. Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

  11. Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

    2013-01-01

    Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

  12. How do the stock prices of new energy and fossil fuel companies correlate? Evidence from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Xiaoqian; Guo, Yanfeng; Wei, Yu; Huang, Dengshi

    2014-01-01

    This study documents the return and volatility spillover effect between the stock prices of Chinese new energy and fossil fuel companies using the asymmetric BEKK model. Based on daily samples taken from August 30, 2006 to September 11, 2012, the dynamics of new energy/fossil fuel stock spillover are found to be significant and asymmetric. Compared with positive news, negative news about new energy and fossil fuel stock returns leads to larger return changes in their counter assets. News about both new energy and fossil fuel stock returns spills over into variances of their counter assets, and the volatility spillovers depend complexly on the respective signs of the return shocks of each asset. The empirical results demonstrate that new energy and fossil fuel stocks are generally viewed as competing assets, that positive news about new energy stocks could affect the attractiveness of fossil fuel stocks and that new energy stock investment is more speculative and riskier than fossil fuel stock investment. These results have potential implications for asset allocation, financial risk management and energy policymaking. - Highlights: • The dynamics of Chinese new energy/fossil fuel stock spillover are significant and asymmetric. • New energy and fossil fuel stocks are generally viewed as competing assets. • Positive news about new energy stocks affects the attractiveness of fossil fuel stocks. • New energy stock investment is more speculative and riskier than fossil fuel stock investment

  13. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  14. Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

  15. Fractional Black–Scholes option pricing, volatility calibration and implied Hurst exponents in South African context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emlyn Flint

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memory, an issue that has heretofore not received much attention. Aim: We address several theoretical and practical issues in option pricing and implied volatility calibration in a fractional Black–Scholes market. We introduce a novel eight-parameter fractional Black–Scholes-inspired (FBSI model for the implied volatility surface, and consider in depth the issue of calibration. One of the main benefits of such a model is that it allows one to decompose implied volatility into an independent long-memory component – captured by an implied Hurst exponent – and a conditional implied volatility component. Such a decomposition has useful applications in the areas of derivatives trading, risk management, delta hedging and dynamic asset allocation. Setting: The proposed FBSI volatility model is calibrated to South African equity index options data as well as South African Rand/American Dollar currency options data. However, given the focus on the theoretical development of the model, the results in this paper are applicable across all financial markets. Methods: The FBSI model essentially combines a deterministic function form of the 1-year implied volatility skew with a separate deterministic function for the implied Hurst exponent, thus allowing one to model both observed implied volatility surfaces as well as decompose them into independent volatility and long-memory components respectively. Calibration of the model makes use of a quasi-explicit weighted

  16. FEWS NET Price Volatility Data 2002-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This dataset from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) documents ten years, from 2002 to 2012, of cereal price fluctuations across twenty-five African...

  17. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  18. A Generic Decomposition Formula for Pricing Vanilla Options under Stochastic Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Merino

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model, extending a previous decomposition formula for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used for this purpose are nonanticipative. In particular, we also see that equivalent results can be obtained by using Functional Itô Calculus. Using the same generalizing ideas, we also extend to nonexponential models the alternative call option price decomposition formula written in terms of the Malliavin derivative of the volatility process. Finally, we give a general expression for the derivative of the implied volatility under both the anticipative and the nonanticipative cases.

  19. Wood fuel price survey for 2008 and 2009. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Based on interviews on telephone with wood fuel vendors and wholesalers, pellet producers, local community boiler managers, and individuals, this study, while giving several data figures and tables, proposes a price analysis for the housing sector (price evolution for individuals for different kinds and sizes of fuel woods), a comparison with other fuels and energies (electricity, gas) whether wood is used as the primary or secondary heating mean. It also comments the price scattering. It proposes the same kind of analysis for local communities

  20. The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

    This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.

  1. The impact of crude oil price volatility on agricultural employment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uri, N.D.

    1996-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected agricultural employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price volatility is established using cointegration tests. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate is examined. (author)

  2. An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

  3. The correlation between dividend policy measures and share price volatility on OMX Helsinki

    OpenAIRE

    Lindeman, Tuomas

    2016-01-01

    Dividend policy refers to the decision whether a firm decides to distribute some of its earnings as dividends to shareholders or not. Two significant variables are related to it: dividend yield and payout ratio. The former indicates how much a firm pays out in dividends each year relative to its share price, whereas the latter refers to the percentage of earnings paid to shareholders in dividends. Dividend policy is seen as one indicator of share price volatility, which measures the dispersio...

  4. Fractional Black-Scholes option pricing, volatility calibration and implied Hurst exponents in South African context

    OpenAIRE

    Flint, Emlyn; Maré, Eben

    2017-01-01

    Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memor...

  5. Fuel prices around the world: From prosperity to turmoil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This issue examines price changes of petroleum products in some 40 countries around the world. Both political turmoil and economic prosperity shape government policy in managing consumer prices of petroleum products. Brazil has experienced extreme political and economic instability that sent prices skyrocketing and the national currency plummeting. Meanwhile, economic growth in South Korea has given the population the wealth for automobiles and stretched the country's ability to supply its unquenchable demand. Fuel prices around the world were higher in July 1992 than in January 1992, mainly due to higher crude prices. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of October 23, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, October 1992 edition

  6. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  7. Price transparency on the market for automotive fuels. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meindert, L.; Van Schijndel, M.; Volkerink, B.

    2011-05-01

    The objective of this study is to answer the main question: which bottlenecks may obstruct the road to up-to-date, reliable and fully market covering price comparison services for the Dutch market for automotive fuels. [nl

  8. Study of Volatility of New Ship Building Prices in LNG Shipping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bangar Raju

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The natural gas market has been expanding in size and has attracted particular attention across the global energy market. Although most natural gas transportation is carried out through pipelines, almost one third of it is done with the help of merchant vessels, capable of carrying liquefied natural gas. These LNG carriers have a special design and thus can be treated as a separate class of global fleet. New vessels are huge capital investments by vessel owning companies and just like other vessel classes; the new shipbuilding prices for the LNG segment continue to be a key aspect in the decision making of business players. Additionally these prices can be volatile as new ship building prices fluctuate with time. This paper attempts to analyse the volatility of new ship building prices of LNG carriers. For the study, the average ship building prices for all the LNG carriers having volume carrying capacity is between 160,000 – 173,000 cbm to be delivered between 2016 – 2019 were taken into account. For the analysis, GARCH and EGARCH methods were applied on the data set. The analysis concluded that there is a great deal of volatility in the new ship building prices of LNG vessels. It was also identified that negative shocks were more persistent the positive shocks.

  9. Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geman, Helyette; Ohana, Steve

    2009-01-01

    The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

  10. Transportation fuel prices around the world, first half 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This survey of 41 countries reveals that while most countries experienced higher prices in national currencies, a stronger dollar resulted in lower U.S. dollar adjusted fuel prices during the first half of the year. Currency exchange rate depreciation against the dollar was the predominant fact around the world

  11. Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Chang; Sun, Xiaolei; Chen, Jianming; Li, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the application of panel models for identification and analysis of influence of oil price volatility on statistical properties of country risk ratings which stem from uncertainty of macroeconomic fluctuations. Firstly, two statistical properties of country risk ratings, volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision were identified in a theoretical framework based on Cruces (2006). Secondly, considering the oil price volatility, numerical experiments were conducted based on extended models to test and verify specific properties of country risk ratings in selected oil-exporting countries. Empirical results suggest that properties of country risk remain comparatively steady despite oil price volatility. It is also found that the oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate the country risk volatility, as it happened during 2007–2009. Country clustering based on the properties of country risk ratings shows that the selected countries maintain a significant clustering tendency. These features are of great importance for estimating risk exposure of international trade and investments in oil export during extreme situations. - Highlights: •Relationship between oil price volatility and country risk is the focus. •An extended model based on Cruces (2006) is proposed. •Volatility clustering and asymmetrical revision of country risk ratings is explored. •Oil price volatility can obviously exaggerate properties of country risk volatility.

  12. Trader types and volatility of emission allowance prices. Evidence from EU ETS Phase I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balietti, Anca Claudia

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the relation between the trading activity of market participants and the volatility of the European Emission Allowance price during Phase I of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS). We focus on the contrasting roles of different trader types. We find evidence of a positive and significant trading activity–volatility relation, which appears to be stronger when accounting for trader type. The positive relation can be mainly attributed to energy providers. In contrast, industrial companies seem to have traded more frequently when volatility levels were lower. Finally, the non-liable players, represented by financial intermediaries, appear to have acted as a flexible counterparty, trading more with the energy sector when volatility was higher, and more with the industrial firms when volatility was lower. We discuss possible explanations for these contrasted positions. Understanding the trading activity–volatility link is relevant for evaluating the efficiency of the EU ETS. Although the relation is generally positive, many players remained often inactive and traded mostly when volatility levels were lower. Policies targeting the engagement of less active players could lead to a smoother incorporation of information into prices and to an increase in market efficiency. - Highlights: • We study the permit price volatility–trading activity link in the EU ETS Phase I. • We focus on the contrasting roles of different market players. • We show that the relation was overall positive, mainly due to energy providers. • Many other players remained inactive and traded more when volatility was lower. • Policies for the engagement of less active traders could increase market efficiency.

  13. Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, Monika; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hertel, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%. (letter)

  14. Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

  15. The Impact of Economic Agents Perceptions on Stock Price Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Bukovina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies perceptions of economic subjects and its impact on stock prices. Perceptions are represented by stock market indexes and Facebook activity. The contribution of this paper is twofold. In the first place, this paper analyzes the unique data of Facebook activity and proposes the methodology for employment of social networks as a proxy variable which represents the perceptions of information in society related to the specific company. The second contribution is the proposal of potential link between social network principles and theories of behavioral economics. Overall, the author finds the negative impact of Facebook activity on stock prices and the positive impact of stock market indices. The author points the implications of findings to protection of company reputation and to investment strategy based on the existence of undervalued stocks.

  16. Volatilities, traded volumes, and the hypothesis of price increments in derivative securities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Scalas, Enrico; Kim, Kyungsik

    2007-08-01

    A detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied to the statistics of Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures from which the logarithmic increments, volatilities, and traded volumes are estimated over a specific time lag. In this study, the logarithmic increment of futures prices has no long-memory property, while the volatility and the traded volume exhibit the existence of the long-memory property. To analyze and calculate whether the volatility clustering is due to a inherent higher-order correlation not detected by with the direct application of the DFA to logarithmic increments of KTB futures, it is of importance to shuffle the original tick data of future prices and to generate a geometric Brownian random walk with the same mean and standard deviation. It was found from a comparison of the three tick data that the higher-order correlation inherent in logarithmic increments leads to volatility clustering. Particularly, the result of the DFA on volatilities and traded volumes can be supported by the hypothesis of price changes.

  17. A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Huang, Xin

    Building on realized variance and bi-power variation measures constructed from high-frequency financial prices, we propose a simple reduced form framework for effectively incorporating intraday data into the modeling of daily return volatility. We decompose the total daily return variability...

  18. Least Squares Inference on Integrated Volatility and the Relationship between Efficient Prices and Noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nolte, Ingmar; Voev, Valeri

    The expected value of sums of squared intraday returns (realized variance) gives rise to a least squares regression which adapts itself to the assumptions of the noise process and allows for a joint inference on integrated volatility (IV), noise moments and price-noise relations. In the iid noise...

  19. The Economics of Biofuel Policies. Impacts on Price Volatility in Grain and Oilseed Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorter, de H.; Drabik, D.

    2015-01-01

    The global food crises of 2008 and 2010 and the increased price volatility revolve around biofuels policies and their interaction with each other, farm policies and between countries. The Economics of Biofuel Policies focuses on the role of biofuel policies in creating turmoil in the world grains

  20. Price and volatility transmissions between natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, Xiaoli Liao; Trujillo-Barrera, Andrés; Wiggins, Seth

    2016-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price and volatility transmission between natural gas, fertilizer (ammonia), and corn markets, an issue that has been traditionally ignored in the literature despite its significant importance. Design/methodology/approach – The authors

  1. Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-P. Liu (Chia-Ping); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and

  2. Pricing stock options under stochastic volatility and interest rates with efficient method of moments estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, George J.; Sluis, Pieter J. van der

    1999-01-01

    While the stochastic volatility (SV) generalization has been shown to improve the explanatory power over the Black-Scholes model, empirical implications of SV models on option pricing have not yet been adequately tested. The purpose of this paper is to first estimate a multivariate SV model using

  3. Economics of National Waste Terminal Storage Spent Fuel Pricing Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-05-01

    The methodology for equitably pricing commercial nuclear spent fuel management is developed, and the results of four sample calculations are presented. The spent fuel management program analyzed places encapsulated spent fuel in bedded salt while maintaining long-term retrievability. System design was reasonable but not optimum. When required, privately-owned Away From Reactor (AFR) storage is provided and the spent fuel placed in AFR storage is eventually transported to final storage. Applicable Research and Development and Government Overhead are included. The cost of each component by year was estimated from the most recent applicable data source available. These costs were input to the pricing methodology to establish a one-time charge whose present value exactly recovered the present value of the expenditure flow. The four cases exercised were combinations of a high and a low quantity of spent fuel managed, with a single repository (venture) or a multiple repository (campaign) approach to system financial structure. The price for spent fuel management calculated ranged from 116 to 152 dollars (1978) per kilogram charged initially to the reactor. The effect of spent fuel receiving rate on price is illustrated by the fact that the extremes of price did not coincide with the cases having the extremes of undiscounted cost. These prices for spent fuel management are comparable in magnitude to other fuel cycle costs. The range of variation is small because of compensating effects, i.e., additional costs for high early deliveries (AFR and transportation) versus lower present value of future revenue for later delivery cases. The methodology contains numerous conservative assumptions, provisions for contingencies, and covers the complete set of spent fuel management expenses

  4. The Volatility of Oil Prices on Stock Exchanges in the Context of Recent Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu Maria-Floriana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Oil along with currencies and gold are the main indicators of the most important processes which take place in the world economy, quotations’ volatility being always followed by economic and social events. Quiet periods of oil prices, when quotations have a constant evolution or only suffer minor fluctuations, are very rare. Most of the time, very sharp price increases or decreases are happening over night or week. This is mostly due to the fact that the oil market is extremely speculative, being influenced by political, military, social, or meteorological events. Since the major oil price shocks of the 70s, the impact of oil price changes on the economic reality of a country or region has been widely studied by academic researchers. Moreover, the stock market plays an important role in the economic welfare and development of a country. Therefore, a vast number of studies have investigated the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns, being discovered significant effects of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity for both developed and emerging countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility of oil prices on stock exchanges taking into consideration the recent events that have affected the oil markets around the globe. Furthermore, based on the findings of this research, some possible scenarios will be developed, taking into account various events that might take place and their potential outcome for oil prices’ future.

  5. How Volatilities Nonlocal in Time Affect the Price Dynamics in Complex Financial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Jun-Jie; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2015-01-01

    What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time. PMID:25723154

  6. How volatilities nonlocal in time affect the price dynamics in complex financial systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Tan

    Full Text Available What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time.

  7. Prices, taxes and automotive fuel cross-border shopping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leal, Andres; Lopez-Laborda, Julio; Rodrigo, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to determine whether differences in automotive fuel prices among neighboring Autonomous Communities (i.e. Spanish political-administrative regions) affect the decisions taken by individuals regarding the region in which to purchase fuel. In particular, the intention is to discover if price increases in certain Autonomous Communities, as a result of the application of the regional tranche of the Hydrocarbon Retail Sales Tax (HRST) has affected fuel purchases in neighboring Communities. In order to achieve the above-mentioned objectives, the monthly purchases of automotive diesel in Aragon between January 2001 and March 2007 is estimated from the fuel price in Aragon, the relation between prices in each of the bordering Communities and Aragon, weighted by density of traffic, the number of vehicles registered in that Community, and three dummy variables representative of the implementation of the regional tranche of the HRST in Madrid, Catalonia, and Valencia. The paper finds empirical evidence to demonstrate a positive effect of the relative prices in the neighboring Communities and vehicle registrations, and also a negative effect of prices in Aragon, upon the acquisition of diesel in this region. In the case of Catalonia, some evidence suggests that the price effect may have been strengthened following the introduction of the regional tranche of the HRST in August 2004. (author)

  8. Free Cash-Flow, Issuance Costs and Stock Price Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Décamps, Jean-Paul; Mariotti, Thomas; Rochet, Jean-Charles; Villeneuve, Stéphane

    2008-01-01

    We study the issuance and payout policies that maximize the value of a firm facing both agency costs of free cash-flow and external financing costs. We find that the firm optimally issues equity. Equity distributes no dividends until a target cash level is reached, while new equity is issued when the firm runs out of cash. We characterize the process modelling the number of outstanding shares and the dynamics of the stock prices. In line with the leverage effect identified by Black (1976), we...

  9. The price of fuel oil for power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, G.J.Y.; Liaw, Y.Y.C.

    1987-01-01

    This study establishes a break-even analysis model for fuel oil generation. The authors calculate the break-even points of the international fuel oil prices for the existing coal-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants and the newly-built coal/oil-fired power plants

  10. Fuel price and supply projections, 1980 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-06-01

    In 1978, over 95% of California's energy was derived from conventional fuels - oil, natural gas, coal, and uranium. Approximately one-third of these conventional fuels was produced within the state, the remaining two-thirds coming from other states and foreign countries. Dependence on these fuels is not likely to diminish rapidly in the near future, therefore the factors that contribute to the future supplies and prices of these fuels will have a major influence on the state's energy future. This report serves as a basis for Commission analysis and is also intended as a tool to be used by others who must make decisions involving the future cost and availability of fuels. This report documents the staff's projections on future supply, price, and availability of these fuels and presents information on historical fuel use and price for background and perspective. Analyses of commercially developable derived fuels and of recent Federal statutory restrictions on the use of oil and gas are also presented. These analyses include economic, logistic, environmental, geologic, and social and institutional considerations. This report does not focus on the costs included in fuel production and preparation; nor does the report go into detail on the transportation, disposal, and downstream costs of the various fuels

  11. Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nastari, Plinio Mario

    1993-01-01

    The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country

  12. Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

    2006-01-01

    The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

  13. Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2013-01-01

    Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market). Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

  14. Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market. Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

  15. Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian G; Knibbs, Luke D

    2014-05-01

    Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Theft in Price-Volatile Markets: On the Relationship between Copper Price and Copper Theft

    OpenAIRE

    Sidebottom, A.; Belur, J.; Bowers, K.; Tompson, L.; Johnson, S. D.

    2011-01-01

    Recently, against a backdrop of general reductions in acquisitive crime, increases have been observed in the frequency of metal theft offences. This is generally attributed to increases in metal prices in response to global demand exceeding supply. The main objective of this article was to examine the relationship between the price of copper and levels of copper theft, focusing specifically on copper cable theft from the British railway network. Results indicated a significant positive correl...

  17. A discontinuous Galerkin method for numerical pricing of European options under Heston stochastic volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

    2016-12-01

    The paper is based on the results from our recent research on multidimensional option pricing problems. We focus on European option valuation when the price movement of the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility following a square root process proposed by Heston. The stochastic approach incorporates a new additional spatial variable into this model and makes it very robust, i.e. it provides a framework to price a variety of options that is closer to reality. The main topic is to present the numerical scheme arising from the concept of discontinuous Galerkin methods and applicable to the Heston option pricing model. The numerical results are presented on artificial benchmarks as well as on reference market data.

  18. Finite Volume Method for Pricing European Call Option with Regime-switching Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lista Tauryawati, Mey; Imron, Chairul; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a finite volume method for pricing European call option using Black-Scholes equation with regime-switching volatility. In the first step, we formulate the Black-Scholes equations with regime-switching volatility. we use a finite volume method based on fitted finite volume with spatial discretization and an implicit time stepping technique for the case. We show that the regime-switching scheme can revert to the non-switching Black Scholes equation, both in theoretical evidence and numerical simulations.

  19. The analysis of volatility of gold coin price fluctuations in Iran using ARCH & VAR models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakilolroaya

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in gold price and modeling of its return volatility and conditional variance model. The study gathers daily prices of gold coins as the dependent variable and the price of gold in world market, the price of oil in OPEC, exchange rate USD to IRR and index of Tehran Stock Exchange from March 2007 to July 2013 and using ARCH family models and VAR methods, the study analysis the data. The study first examines whether the data are stationary or not and then it reviews the household stability, Arch and Garch models. The proposed study investigates the causality among variables, selects different factors, which could be blamed of uncertainty in the coin return. The results indicate that the effect of sudden changes of standard deviation and after a 14-day period disappears and gold price goes back to its initial position. In addition, in this study we observe the so-called leverage effect in Iran’s Gold coin market, which means the good news leads to more volatility in futures market than bad news in an equal size. Finally, the result of analysis of variance implies that in the short-term, a large percentage change in uncertainty of the coin return is due to changes in the same factors and volatility of stock returns in the medium term, global gold output, oil price and exchange rate fluctuation to some extent will show the impact. In the long run, the effects of parameters are more evident.

  20. Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geman, Helyette [Birkbeck, University of London (United Kingdom); ESCP-EAP (France); Ohana, Steve [ESCP-EAP (France)

    2009-07-15

    The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

  1. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  2. Estimating Price Volatility Structure in Iran’s Meat Market: Application of General GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rasouli Birami

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past few years, the price volatility of agricultural products and food markets has attracted attention of many researchers and policy makers. This growing attention was started from the food price crisis in 2007 and 2008 when major agricultural products faced accelerated price increases and then rapidly decreased. This paper focused on the price volatility of major commodities related to three market levels of Iran’s meat market, including hay (the input level, calf and sheep (the wholesale level and beef and mutton (the retail level. In particular, efforts will made to find more appropriate models for explaining the behavior of volatility of the return series and to identify which return series are more volatile. The effects of good and bad news on the volatility of prices in each return series will also be studied. Materials and Methods: Different GARCH type models have been considered the best for modeling volatility of return series. Nonlinear GARCH models were introduced to capture the effect of good and bad news separately. The paper uses some GARCH type models including GARCH, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH (TGARCH, Simple Asymmetric GARCH (SAGARCH, Power GARCH (PGARCH, Non-linear GARCH (NGARCH, Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH and Non-linear Power GARCH (NPGARCH to model the volatility of hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton return series. The data on hay, calf, sheep, and beef and mutton monthly prices are published by Iran’s livestock support firm. The paper uses monthly data over the sample period of the May 1992 to the March 2014. Results and Discussion: Descriptive statistics of the studied return series show evidence of skewness and kurtosis. The results here show that all the series has fat tails. The significant p-values for the Ljung-Box Q-statistics mean that the auto-correlation exists in the squared residuals. The presence of unit roots in the return series is confirmed by the

  3. Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinfeng Ruan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

  4. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Ting, Chee-Ming [Center for Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

  5. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Bahar, Arifah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Ting, Chee-Ming; Rahman, Haliza Abd

    2015-02-01

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

  6. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd; Bahar, Arifah; Ting, Chee-Ming

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well

  7. Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios

    2008-01-01

    Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)

  8. Least Squares Inference on Integrated Volatility and the Relationship between Efficient Prices and Noise

    OpenAIRE

    Nolte, Ingmar; Voev, Valeri

    2009-01-01

    The expected value of sums of squared intraday returns (realized variance)gives rise to a least squares regression which adapts itself to the assumptions ofthe noise process and allows for a joint inference on integrated volatility (IV),noise moments and price-noise relations. In the iid noise case we derive theasymptotic variance of the regression parameter estimating the IV, show thatit is consistent and compare its asymptotic efficiency against alternative consistentIV measures. In case of...

  9. Computational intelligence applications to option pricing, volatility forecasting and value at risk

    CERN Document Server

    Mostafa, Fahed; Chang, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    The results in this book demonstrate the power of neural networks in learning complex behavior from the underlying financial time series data . The results in this book also demonstrate how neural networks can successfully be applied to volatility modeling, option pricings, and value at risk modeling. These features allow them to be applied to market risk problems to overcome classical issues associated with statistical models. .

  10. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...

  11. Pricing of American Put Option under a Jump Diffusion Process with Stochastic Volatility in an Incomplete Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the pricing of American options in an incomplete market in which the dynamics of the underlying risky asset is driven by a jump diffusion process with stochastic volatility. By employing a risk-minimization criterion, we obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and consequently a linear complementarity problem (LCP for American option price. An iterative method is then established to solve the LCP problem for American put option price. Our numerical results show that the model and numerical scheme are robust in capturing the feature of incomplete finance market, particularly the influence of market volatility on the price of American options.

  12. Confinement of ruthenium oxides volatilized during nuclear fuels reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maas, E.T. Jr.; Longo, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    While many materials have been suggested and employed as trapping agents for gaseous oxides of fission product ruthenium volatilized during nuclear fuels reprocessing, none that is known to form thermodynamically stable compounds with rutheniunm has been utilized. We have employed alkaline earth metal compounds for this purpose because of their ability to form stable mixed metal oxide phases with ruthenium. Results of experiments in which RuO 4 was volatilized from either a solid source (RuO 2 .xH 2 O) or from solution [Ru(NO)(NO 3 ) 3 ] in HNO 3 and passed through beds of alkaline earth metal carbonates and calcium oxide held at 600 to 750 0 C have demonstrated that compounds of formulation MRuO 3 (M = calcium, strontium, barium) are formed. Under oxidizing conditions, these materials exist as stable ceramic phases, whereas under reducing conditions, they are transformed into intimate mixtures of the alkaline earth metal oxide and nonvolatile ruthenium metal

  13. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  14. Homotopy Analysis Method for Boundary-Value Problem of Turbo Warrant Pricing under Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoi Ying Wong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Turbo warrants are liquidly traded financial derivative securities in over-the-counter and exchange markets in Asia and Europe. The structure of turbo warrants is similar to barrier options, but a lookback rebate will be paid if the barrier is crossed by the underlying asset price. Therefore, the turbo warrant price satisfies a partial differential equation (PDE with a boundary condition that depends on another boundary-value problem (BVP of PDE. Due to the highly complicated structure of turbo warrants, their valuation presents a challenging problem in the field of financial mathematics. This paper applies the homotopy analysis method to construct an analytic pricing formula for turbo warrants under stochastic volatility in a PDE framework.

  15. Investigating banks’ financial structure on profitability and price volatility of banks’ shares: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Zeinab Mirzaei; Mohsen Hamidian; Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between financial structure on profitability and price volatility of banks’ shares, which are operating in Iran. The proposed study considers the information of 21 Iranian banks over the period 2006-2012. Using some regression techniques, the study has determined that there was a negative relationship between leverage and return on assets but there was not any meaningful relationship between leverage and price volatility...

  16. Examining the Impact of Corporate Dividend Policy On Stock Price Volatility In Singapore : Does Financial Crisis Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Hussain, Muhammad Asjad

    2016-01-01

    One of the most puzzling and widely researched topics in the field of corporate finance is corporate dividend policy and the probable impact it has on firms’ stock price volatility. Despite years of research and extensive empirical examination of the dividend policy-stock price volatility linkage, conflicting evidence across a multitude of studies implies that no solid conclusion regarding the veracity and validity of this relationship has yet been reached. Furthermore, there is a dearth of s...

  17. Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

  18. Burning low volatile fuel in tangentially fired furnaces with fuel rich/lean burners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Xiaolin; Xu Tongmo; Hui Shien

    2004-01-01

    Pulverized coal combustion in tangentially fired furnaces with fuel rich/lean burners was investigated for three low volatile coals. The burners were operated under the conditions with varied value N d , which means the ratio of coal concentration of the fuel rich stream to that of the fuel lean stream. The wall temperature distributions in various positions were measured and analyzed. The carbon content in the char and NO x emission were detected under various conditions. The new burners with fuel rich/lean streams were utilized in a thermal power station to burn low volatile coal. The results show that the N d value has significant influences on the distributions of temperature and char burnout. There exists an optimal N d value under which the carbon content in the char and the NO x emission is relatively low. The coal ignition and NO x emission in the utilized power station are improved after retrofitting the burners

  19. Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe; Param Silvapulle

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical n...

  20. Domestic fuel price and economic sectors in Malaysia: a future of renewable energy?

    OpenAIRE

    Jee, Hui-Siang Brenda; Lau, Evan; Puah, Chin-Hong; Abu Mansor, Shazali

    2010-01-01

    This study empirically examines the relation between the domestic fuel prices with the ten disaggregated economic sectors in Malaysia with the spanning of data from 1990:Q1 to 2007:Q4. We found that only three sectors (agriculture, trade and other services sectors) are cointegrated with the fuel price and fuel price does Granger cause these sectors. Despite the evidence of non-cointegrated in most of the economic sectors, fuel price able to influence these sectors over a longer period. Policy...

  1. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  2. Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

    2007-03-01

    This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

  3. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  4. The Volatility of Indonesia Shari’ah Capital Market Stock Price Toward Macro Economics Variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Malini

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Shari’ah stock market is also affected by many highly interrelated economic, social, political andother factor, same as the conventional stock market, the interaction between macroeconomic variablesand Shari’ah stock market creating volatility in the stock price as a response towards severalshocks. The sensitivity of Shari’ah stock market towards shocks happened related with the futureexpectation of micro and macro factor in one country which can be predict or unpredictable.There are six macroeconomic variables that used in this research; inflation, exchange rate, interestrate, dow jones index, crude oil palm price, and FED rate. Using vector error correction model(VECM, the result shows that domestic macroeconomic variables that significantly affect IndonesiaShari’ah compliance for long term, while for international macroeconomic variables the selectedvariable such as FED rate and Dow Jones Index are not significantly affected Indonesia Shari’ahcompliance both in short term and long term. Keywords: Indonesia Shari’ah compliance, Macro Economic Indicators, Impulse Response Function,Stock Price Volatility

  5. A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

  6. Auditor Tenure and Stock Price Volatility: TheModerating Role of Auditor Industry Specialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Jorjani

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose The present study aims to investigate the relationship between auditor tenure and stock return volatility and to study the moderating effect of auditor’s industry specialization on this relationship in the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 95 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2011 to 2015 was selected and two hypotheses were formulated and analyzed using multivariate regression and econometric models. Findings The results of the study indicate that with the increase of auditor tenure, the volatility of stock returns is reduced. However, the results showed that the use of auditors specializing in the client's industry does not affect the relationship between the length of auditor tenure and the volatility of stock returns. Originality/value The findings of current study not only extend the extant theoretical literature concerning the stock price volatility in developing countries including emerging capital market of Iran, but also help investors, capital market and audit profession regulators to make informed decisions.

  7. Papers of the 2. annual Canadian Institute conference on managing natural gas price volatility : effective risk strategies for turbulent times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The issue of how natural gas price volatility is affecting future energy projects was the focus of this conference. Discussions focused on the dynamics of supply and demand of natural gas in North America and how end-users are responding to price fluctuations. Methods by which storage can be used as an effective risk management tool was also on the agenda. The hedging strategies that work best for leading energy firms were described. It was noted that price volatility can be reduced through improved market transparency. Discussions also focused on credit risk in a volatile price environment. A total of 17 papers were presented of which 3 were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. tabs., figs

  8. No pressure on Slovnaft to lower fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, G.; Schoenwiesner, R.; Debnar, M.

    2004-01-01

    The Bratislava based refinery, Slovnaft has a dominant position on the Slovak fuel market. But this dominant market position is not specific to Slovakia - other national markets also have domestic producers with dominant positions. Fuel prices have increased substantially and the consumers are looking for a c ulprit' and have found it in the major player on the market. All those who are talking of 'record-breaking' fuel prices seem to have forgotten about inflation rates in recent years. But the situation on the Slovak market is not entirely standard. Slovak customers are right in objecting to the fact that fuel prices are often higher in Slovakia (pre-tax) than in neighbouring countries. But there is nothing to indicate this situation is likely to change. The consumption of petrol and diesel in Slovakia is growing. Many well-established companies have left the Slovak market and 50 competition is decreasing. And those that have stayed buy their fuel from Slovnaft and do not exercise any pressure on retail margins. Small independent distributors are not in a position to offer lower prices and they themselves are forced to decrease their margins. Slovnaft, controlled by the Hungarian company MOL, dictates the rules not only because its refineries produce 76% of all fuel sold on the Slovak market but also due to the fact that the company controls 39% of the retail network. It does not make a difference whether drivers stop at non--brand petrol stations, or use the petrol stations of international companies, nearly all companies operating in Slovakia buy their fuel from the Bratislava refinery with the exception of high octane petrol and winter diesel. Despite refinery over-capacity in Central Europe and the high number of producers operating within a small area, competition is not noticeable on the Slovak market. In theory, competition could be provided by the Polish refineries, the Czech refinery which imports under the JET brand, the Austrian owned OMV, the

  9. Moment generating functions and Normalized implied volatilities: unification and extension via Fukasawa's pricing formula

    OpenAIRE

    De Marco, Stefano; Martini, Claude

    2017-01-01

    We extend the model-free formula of [Fukasawa 2012] for $\\mathbb E[\\Psi(X_T)]$, where $X_T=\\log S_T/F$ is the log-price of an asset, to functions $\\Psi$ of exponential growth. The resulting integral representation is written in terms of normalized implied volatilities. Just as Fukasawa's work provides rigourous ground for Chriss and Morokoff's (1999) model-free formula for the log-contract (related to the Variance swap implied variance), we prove an expression for the moment generating functi...

  10. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  11. Price formation and market mechanisms in world nuclear fuel markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neff, T.L.

    1991-01-01

    The structure of world markets for uranium, UF6 and enriched uranium product (EUP) have changed greatly since the 1970s. In the old model, firms specializing in mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication played independent and sequential steps in the making of nuclear fuel. The great majority of users dealt directly with primary suppliers. Competition took place among suppliers at each stage of the fuel cycle and price formation occurred independently for each stage. Long-term contracts directly between primary supplier and end user dominated, whether for U3O8, conversion, enrichment or fabrication. The old model is effectively gone. uranium producers compete with traders, some of whom can offer a much larger menu of products and terms than primary suppliers. Where once there was a straight engineering-like sequence of processing from uranium to EUP for end use, today things are often reversed and far more complicated, with de-enrichment, de-conversion, loans, swaps, and other transactions. Those able to bring financial and entrepreneurial skills to bear on this complexity have an advantage. Long-term contracts between primary producers and end users no longer dominate new transactions, especially in the critical role of price formation - the process of determining or discovery of the market price. These changes have raised the question of whether participants in the nuclear fuel market need, or could benefit from, new institutional mechanisms, specifically some sort of formal exchange or commodity market

  12. Fuel price impacts and compliance costs associated with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, Adam; Siddiqui, Sauleh

    2015-01-01

    US policy instruments concerning vehicle biofuels are currently being revisited. For example, as part of an on-going annual Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implementation, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requests stakeholder feedback/analysis of programmatic effects, including impacts on gasoline/diesel prices and compliance costs. Motivated by the need for regulatory-specific feedback, a novel regional market model is developed that quantifies price impacts across different regional markets for a number of market variables, including several types of compliance certificates known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). An analysis of the most recent EPA proposal suggests that the D4 (biodiesel) RIN price could rise to >$1.00/RIN. Sensitivity results show that the D4 RIN price is highly sensitive to soybean oil prices, while D5/D6 RIN prices are most sensitive to the volume of E85 consumed. It was found that the projected costs associated with the RFS in 2017 could be reduced by approximately 50% if an additional 600 million gallons of E85 were consumed. The analysis also suggests that the RFS does not dramatically affect the retail price of either gasoline and diesel fuels paid by consumers. - Highlights: • The most recent EPA could cause the biodiesel RIN price to rise to >$1.00/RIN. • D5/D6 RIN prices are most sensitive to the volume of E85 consumed. • Retail prices for fuel do not change dramatically. • 2017 compliance costs could fall by 50% if more E85 were consumed.

  13. Juxtaposition of micro and macro dynamics of dividend policy on stock price volatility in financial sector of Pakistan : (comparative analysis through common, fixed, random and GMM effect)

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid, Kashif; Khurram, Muhammad Usman; Ghaffar, Wasim

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the dividend policy dynamics in context to firm specific and macroeconomic variables with stock price volatility in the financial sector of Pakistan. Panel data is used for the period 2006-2014 to identify the common, fixed, random and GMM effect. It is concluded that dividend payout ratio, market value, interest volatility and inflation volatility have positive significant correlation with price volatility. Common effect model shows that dividend payou...

  14. Intensity of Price and Volatility Spillover Effects in Asia-Pacific Basin Equity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sazali Abidin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the intensity of price and volatility spillover effects in five major stock markets within the Asia Pacific basin region with a particular emphasis in the spillover effects between Australia and China. VAR(5 model is used for measuring the return spillover while AR/VAR model with exogenous variables is employed for measuring the effects of same day returns on return spillover. .In modelling the volatility spillover, we employ AR/GARCH model which also incorporates the same day effects. Results of both return and volatility spillover provide evidence that there are significant spillover effects across different markets in the Asia-Pacific region and as well as between Australia and China. This study also provides support to the view that a market is most affected by other markets that opens/closes just before it. The main contribution of this paper is the confirmation of spillover effects between markets in the region, in particular, the interdependence between Australia and China which may have evolved only recently and thus have received relatively little research attention to date.

  15. The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D.; Vyas, A. D.

    1999-12-08

    Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.

  16. Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

    2018-03-01

    Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

  17. Strategies to keep your business operating through times of price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spearman, C.

    2002-01-01

    The past (the promises), the present (the reality), and the future (the dream) of electricity deregulation in Alberta are reviewed. According to this outspoken critic of the system the promise was orderly transition, the introduction of industry structure and regulatory reforms that would preserve the 'Alberta advantage' of competitive electricity prices. The reality is government indecision, price volatility, uncertainty and complexity, resulting in poor understanding of the system on the part of consumers, hence bad decisions, rapidly declining confidence, high prices, and eroded competitiveness. In short, costs have skyrocketed and benefits are nowhere to be seen. As far as the dream is concerned the picture is cloudy, based on the following factors: load settlement is still in a mess, transmission remains a major issue, market power of former monopolies is still a concern, and future supply is uncertain in the absence of additional capacity. What is needed to make good on the original promises is a clear vision, stability, a cohesive plan, leadership, decisiveness, certainty and simplicity

  18. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegerty Scott W.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

  19. Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections : Comparison of integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Emmerling, J.; Daly, H.; Kitous, A.; McCollum, D. L.; Saadi Failali, N.

    Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport

  20. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  1. From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Christof

    2017-03-01

    We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

  2. Carpooling and Driver Responses to Fuel Price Changes: Evidence from Traffic Flows in Los Angeles

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio M. Bento; Jonathan E. Hughes; Daniel T. Kaffine

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how drivers respond to fuel price changes has important implications for highway congestion, accidents, carbon policy, local air pollution and taxation. We examine the underexplored relationship between fuel prices and carpooling. Using a simple theoretical model we show that traffic flows in mainline lanes decrease when fuel prices increase. However in carpool (HOV) lanes, flow can either increase or decrease. Traffic flows in mainline lanes are shown to be more responsive to p...

  3. Reduction of CO2 emissions by influencing fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, M.; Zbinden, R.; Haan, P.; Gruetter, J.; Ott, W.

    2002-01-01

    The CO 2 law stipulates quantitative targets for CO 2 emissions (reductions of 10% by 2010 compared with 1990, 15% for heating fuels, 8% for motor fuels). For motor fuels, it is currently estimated that the target will be missed by about 15%, or 2 to 2.5 million tonnes of CO 2 . In order to reach the targets, therefore, all measures that can be taken to reduce emissions are to be checked out and, where sensible and possible, implemented too. The subject of this study is the preferential treatment of diesel, natural gas, liquefied gas and bio-fuels as far as taxation is concerned, with compensation of tax losses on the petrol side. Also, the possibilities for promoting energy-efficient cars are looked at. The reduction of the price for diesel (at least 25 Swiss cents when compensated for via the petrol price) is considered to be unsuitable for reaching the targets because, in the final analysis, fuel sales - the determining factor for the CO 2 emissions that are charged to Switzerland - will increase instead of decreasing. Also, reservations are expressed from the environmental point of view (increased NO x emissions and, in particular, emissions of particulate matter). The modified measure proposed (fixed difference between the prices for petrol and diesel of 25 Swiss cents, for example) is looked at less critically, because it does actually lead to a reduction of CO 2 , even if only a modest one (approx. 10% of the gap to be bridged). On the environmental side, the same reservations apply. Bonus-malus systems, on the other hand, permit a selective choice of the objects of promotion (efficient and, possibly, low-emission vehicles), avoid the unjust preferential treatment of goods traffic and can be implemented without disturbing international price structures (fuel tourism). A bonus-malus system applied at purchase (e.g. different levels of car taxation) is considered to be more efficient than a differentiation in vehicle (road) tax. The promotion of gas is a

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF TIGHT OIL RESOURCES IN USA: PROFITABILITY OF EXPLOITATION AND EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN VOLATILE OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Strpić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large scale development of tight oil resources in US started after 2010. with following five-year period of favorable steady increase in crude oil price. During this relatively short expansion cycle, operating and capital expenses changed drastically for main tight oil plays due to technological improvements in both well drilling and completion, expansion of service sector as well as loose government monetary policy which allowed favorable financing. This paper analyzed trends in costs during expansion period, as well as correlation of oil price to number of operating rigs and production quotas. After 2008/2009. world financial crisis economy recovery in US was somewhat sluggish and it caused extreme volatile environment in both equity and commodity markets. In such volatile environment intra-day crude oil prices, as well as other commodities and equities, show significant reaction to monthly published macroeconomic indicator reports, which give better overviews of trends in economic recovery. Prior to announcement, these reports always have forecasted value determined by consensus among market analysts. Therefore, any positive or negative surprise in real value tends to influence price of oil. This paper investigated influence of such macroeconomic reports to closing intraday oil price, as well as effect of other important daily market indices. Analysis showed that only Producer Price Index (PPI, among other indicators, has statistical significance of affecting intraday closing oil price.

  5. Nuclear-fuel-cycle facility deployment and price generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andress, D.A.

    1981-04-01

    The enrichment process and how it is to be modeled in the International Nuclear Model (INM) is described. The details of enrichment production, planning, unit price generation, demand estimation and ordering are examined. The enrichment process from both the producer's and the utility's point of view is analyzed. The enrichment separative-work-unit (SWU) contracts are also discussed. The relationship of the enrichment process with other sectors of the nuclear fuel cycle, expecially uranium mining and milling is considered. There are portions of the enrichment process that are not completely understood at the present time. These areas, which require further study, will be pinpointed in the following discussion. In many cases, e.g., the advent of SMU brokerage activities, the answers will emerge only in time. In other cases, e.g., political trends, uncertainties will always remain. It is possible to cast the uncertainties in a probabilistic framework, but this is beyond the scope of this report. INM, a comprehensive model of the international nuclear industry, simulates the market decision process based on current and future price expectations under a broad range of scenario specifications. INM determines the proper reactor mix as well as the planning, operation, and unit price generation of the attendant nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The level of detail of many of the enrichment activities presented in this report, e.g., the enrichment contracts, is too fine to be incorporated into INM. Nevertheless, they are presented in a form that is ammendable to modeling. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, it shows the level of complexity that would be required to model the entire system. Second, it presents the structural framework for a detailed, stand-alone enrichment model

  6. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  7. Volatile Fuel Hydrocarbons and MTBE in the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cozzarelli, I. M.; Baehr, A. L.

    2003-12-01

    Petroleum hydrocarbons (hydrocarbons that result from petroleum products such as oil, gasoline, or diesel fuel) are among the most commonly occurring and widely distributed contaminants in the environment. Volatile hydrocarbons are the lighter fraction of the petroleum hydrocarbons and, together with fuel oxygenates, are most often released from crude oil and liquid petroleum products produced from crude oil. The demand for crude oil stems from the world's ever-growing energy need. From 1970 to 1999, primary energy production of the world grew by 76% (Energy Information Administration, 2001), with fossil fuels (crude oil, natural gas, and coal) accounting for ˜85% of all energy produced worldwide (Figure 1). World crude oil production reached a record 68 million barrels (bbl) per day (1.08×1010 L d-1) in 2000. The world's dependence on oil as an energy source clearly is identified as contributing to global warming and worsening air and water quality. (7K)Figure 1. World primary energy production by source from 1970 to 1999 (Energy Information Administration, 2001). Petroleum products are present in Earth's subsurface as solids, liquids, or gases. This chapter presents a summary of the environmental problems and issues related to the use of liquid petroleum, or oil. The focus is on the sources of volatile hydrocarbons and fuel oxygenates and the geochemical behavior of these compounds when they are released into the environment. Although oxygenates currently in commercial use include compounds other than methyl t-butyl ether (MTBE), such as ethanol (ETOH), most of the information presented here focuses on MTBE because of its widespread occurrence. The environmental impact of higher molecular weight hydrocarbons that also originate from petroleum products is described in (Chapter 9.13, Abrajano et al.).Crude oil occurs within the Earth and is a complex mixture of natural compounds composed largely of hydrocarbons containing only hydrogen and carbon atoms. The minor

  8. On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebabli, Ikram; Arouri, Mohamed; Teulon, Frédéric

    2014-01-01

    Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance

  9. An empirical analysis of freight rate and vessel price volatility transmission in global dry bulk shipping market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Dai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Global dry bulk shipping market is an important element of global economy and trade. Since newbuilding and secondhand vessels are often traded as assets and the freight rate is the key determinant of vessel price, it is important for shipping market participants to understand the market dynamics and price transmission mechanism over time to make suitable strategic decisions. To address this issue, a multi-variate GARCH model was applied in this paper to explore the volatility spillover effects across the vessel markets (including newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets and freight market. Specifically, the BEKK parameterization of the multi-variate GARCH model (BEKK GARCH was proposed to capture the volatility transmission effect from the freight market, newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets in the global dry bulk shipping industry. Empirical results reveal that significant volatility transmission effects exist in each market sector, i.e. capesize, panamax, handymax and handysize. Besides, the market volatility transmission mechanism varies among different vessel types. Moreover, some bilateral effects are found in the dry bulk shipping market, showing that lagged variances could affect the current variance in a counterpart market, regardless of the volatility transmission. A simple ratio is proposed to guide investors optimizing their portfolio allocations. The findings in this paper could provide unique insights for investors to understand the market and hedge their portfolios well.

  10. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? some evidence from an empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentenac Chemin, E.

    2009-04-01

    We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviours. The high volatility of petroleum prices and thus gasoline prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. Thus, in this paper, we estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the short and the long-term, in two countries: the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. - The United States: (1) The long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low (2) Households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. - India: (1) Price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short run. It is not surprising for an emergent country (2) It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption. (author)

  11. Six months after the Gulf war - Fuel prices and taxes around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    During the first half of 1991, national average gasoline and diesel No. 2 fuel prices declined in many countries in terms of US dollars, due to the stronger US currency and weaker crude oil prices. However, in countries' own currencies, consumer prices were unchanged or higher than they were at the end of 1990. This issue of Energy Detente features findings from their ongoing Fuel Price/Tax Series and closely compares fuel price and tax levels around the world. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of August 23, 1991; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, August 1991 Edition. 6 figs., 11 tabs

  12. Driving for fun? Comparing the effect of fuel prices on weekday and weekend fuel consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frondel, Manuel; Vance, Colin [Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, D-45128 Essen (Germany)

    2010-01-15

    Focusing on individual motorists in car-owning households in Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of automobile travel, with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and person-level attributes on travel conducted over a five-day week and weekend. Our analysis is predicated on the notion that car use is an individual decision, albeit one that is dependent on intra-household allocation processes, thereby building on a growing body of literature that has identified the importance of socioeconomic factors such as employment status, gender, and the presence of children in determining both access to and use of the car. To capture this two-stage decision process, we employ the two-part model, which consists of probit and OLS estimators, and derive elasticity estimates that incorporate both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use. With fuel price elasticity estimates ranging between - 0.45 and - 0.50, our results suggest raising prices via fuel taxes to be a promising energy conservation and climate protection measure. (author)

  13. Driving for fun? Comparing the effect of fuel prices on weekday and weekend fuel consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frondel, Manuel; Vance, Colin

    2010-01-01

    Focusing on individual motorists in car-owning households in Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of automobile travel, with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and person-level attributes on travel conducted over a five-day week and weekend. Our analysis is predicated on the notion that car use is an individual decision, albeit one that is dependent on intra-household allocation processes, thereby building on a growing body of literature that has identified the importance of socioeconomic factors such as employment status, gender, and the presence of children in determining both access to and use of the car. To capture this two-stage decision process, we employ the two-part model, which consists of probit and OLS estimators, and derive elasticity estimates that incorporate both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use. With fuel price elasticity estimates ranging between - 0.45 and - 0.50, our results suggest raising prices via fuel taxes to be a promising energy conservation and climate protection measure. (author)

  14. Bulk Fuel Pricing: DOD Needs to Take Additional Actions to Establish a More Reliable Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-19

    Page 1 GAO-16-78R Bulk Fuel Pricing 441 G St. N.W. Washington, DC 20548 November 19, 2015 The Honorable Ashton Carter The Secretary of...Defense Bulk Fuel Pricing : DOD Needs to Take Additional Actions to Establish a More Reliable Methodology Dear Secretary Carter: Each fiscal...year, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), in coordination with the Defense Logistics Agency, sets a standard price per barrel

  15. Trade of Solid Biofuels, and Fuel Prices in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alakangas, E.; Hillring, B.; Nikolaisen, L.S.

    2002-01-01

    Traditionally, biomass fuels are used in the same geographical region, in which they are produced. In more recent years, this pattern has been changed in Northern Europe by large-scale use of biomass for district heating and a vast supply of recycled wood and forest residues. The trade situation has come about as a result of means of control on waste and energy. Sea shipments allow bulk transports of biomass over long distances at low cost. In most countries, the customs statistics do not record trade in such a detail that the international trade of different biomass types could be identified. Today, solid biofuels like wood residues, pellets and wood chips are already traded in Europe and have reached a level of almost 50 PJ/a. In some countries, there is a growing interest in the international biomass trade, because the trade can provide biofuels at lower prices. The largest volumes of biomass are traded from the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) to the Nordic countries (especially Sweden and Denmark, but also Finland). Some volumes are also traded from Finland to other Nordic countries, and between neighbouring countries in Central Europe, especially the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Slovenia and Italy. The traded biofuel is most often of refined wood fuels (pellets and briquettes) and industrial by-products (sawdust, chips), in Central Europe also wood waste

  16. Trade of Solid Biofuels, and Fuel Prices in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alakangas, E. [VTT Processes, Jyvaeskylae (Finland); Hillring, B. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); Nikolaisen, L.S. [Danish Technological Inst. (DTI), Aarhus (Denmark). Centre for Biomass Technology

    2002-07-01

    Traditionally, biomass fuels are used in the same geographical region, in which they are produced. In more recent years, this pattern has been changed in Northern Europe by large-scale use of biomass for district heating and a vast supply of recycled wood and forest residues. The trade situation has come about as a result of means of control on waste and energy. Sea shipments allow bulk transports of biomass over long distances at low cost. In most countries, the customs statistics do not record trade in such a detail that the international trade of different biomass types could be identified. Today, solid biofuels like wood residues, pellets and wood chips are already traded in Europe and have reached a level of almost 50 PJ/a. In some countries, there is a growing interest in the international biomass trade, because the trade can provide biofuels at lower prices. The largest volumes of biomass are traded from the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) to the Nordic countries (especially Sweden and Denmark, but also Finland). Some volumes are also traded from Finland to other Nordic countries, and between neighbouring countries in Central Europe, especially the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Slovenia and Italy. The traded biofuel is most often of refined wood fuels (pellets and briquettes) and industrial by-products (sawdust, chips), in Central Europe also wood waste.

  17. Electricity prices and fuel costs. Long-run relations and short-run dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan

    2009-01-01

    The paper examines the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between electricity prices and three fossil fuel prices - coal, natural gas and crude oil - using annual data for the U.S. for 1960-2007. The results suggest (1) a stable long-run relation between real prices for electricity and coal (2) Bi-directional long-run causality between coal and electricity prices. (3) Insignificant long-run relations between electricity and crude oil and/or natural gas prices. And (4) no evidence of asymmetries in the adjustment of electricity prices to deviations from equilibrium. A number of implications are addressed. (author)

  18. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentenac-Chemin, Elodie

    2012-01-01

    We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviors. The high volatility of petroleum prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. We estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. Concerning the United States, the long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low, but we show that households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. About India, price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short-run. It is not surprising for an emergent country. It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption.

  19. How does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Wyatt; Meyer, Seth; Westhoff, Pat

    2009-01-01

    The recent increase in ethanol use in the US strengthens and changes the nature of links between agricultural and energy markets. Here, we explore the interaction of market volatility and the scope for policy to affect this interaction, with a focus on how corn yields and petroleum prices affect ethanol prices. Mandates associated with new US energy legislation may intervene in these links in the medium-term future. We simulate stochastically a structural model that represents these markets, and that includes mandates, in order to assess how shocks to corn or oil markets can affect ethanol price and use. We estimate that the mandate makes ethanol producer prices more sensitive to corn yields and less sensitive to changes in petroleum prices overall. We note a discontinuity in these links that is caused by the mandate. Ethanol use can exceed the mandate if petroleum prices and corn yields are high enough, but the mandate limits downside adjustments in ethanol use to low petroleum prices or corn yields

  20. Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2014-01-01

    change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes......, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show...... that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains...

  1. A discrete-time two-factor model for pricing bonds and interest rate derivatives under random volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Heston, Steven L.; Nandi, Saikat

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curv...

  2. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable togas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-07-17

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

  3. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2006-01-01

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then-contrary to common practice-any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000 to 2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation

  4. Determination of the fuel component in the cost price of the energy production in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakov, M.; Velev, V.

    1997-01-01

    An approach is proposed for the determination of the fuel component in the cost price of the nuclear units production with regards of the difference between the time of the fuel consumption and the energy production. This method gives the opportunity for fuel consumption prognostication, as well as an optimization of both short and long term fueling regimes. This approach permits current update of the economic conditions and the pre-history of the investments. It can be used both for the determination of the fuel component and the full cost price of the energy production in NPPs.(author)

  5. Fuel consumption: short term and long term price impacts per population type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This report presents assessments of the price sensitivity of household fuel consumption. After a literature review on price-elasticity assessments and the use of pseudo-panels, the investigation analyses the deciding factors of the household fuel expense and its evolution between 1985 and 2006. It proposes a short term price-elasticity assessment based on the most recent survey, and also proposes price-elasticity assessments for sub-populations, notably in terms of income level or location (rural or urban areas)

  6. Fuel pricing policies in South America and Mexico. Economic and environmental implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altomonte, H.; Rogat, J.

    2004-01-01

    Increasing industrialisation and income levels in developing countries are leading to increased demand for energy. A vast majority of this energy is based on fossil fuels, where oil represents the largest share. The burning of fossil fuels gives rise to emissions of gases with severe impacts on local and global environment, and most importantly on human health. In spite of this, oil consumption has been steadily increasing during the last decades, and is expected to continue doing so. According to the IPCC's second assessment report, the use of energy and in particular of fossil fuels, is expected to double by 2020. In Latin America, fuel prices have historically been well below world market prices. Prior to energy reforms in the early 1990s, energy prices did not follow conventional marginal cost or opportunity cost pricing rules, but where instead set with particular regard for income distribution goals or with the avowed purpose of promoting industrialization. This situation started to change in a number of countries at the end of the 1980s as a result of energy reforms, which included changes in pricing policies. These reforms allowed for private sector participation in the exploration, production and distribution of these products, thuds leading in most of the countries to the pricing system being decentralised and profitability criteria being incorporated into the state owned companies. In some countries where energy had been heavily subsidised, energy reforms contributed to reducing or dismantling subsidies and thereby to price levels more in line with those of industrialized countries. Nevertheless, in several countries of the region energy subsidies are still in place. These subsidies are creating market distortions, with prices still well below world market prices being one of the results. The objective of this study is twofold. The first objective is to map current fuel pricing in a number of South American countries and Mexico. This information will

  7. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  8. Long-term memory and volatility clustering in high-frequency price changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

    2008-02-01

    We studied the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). For all high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property was detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property was found in the volatility time series. The possible causes of the long-term memory property were investigated using the return data filtered by the AR(1) model, reflecting the short-term memory property, the GARCH(1,1) model, reflecting the volatility clustering property, and the FIGARCH model, reflecting the long-term memory property of the volatility time series. The memory effect in the AR(1) filtered return and volatility time series remained unchanged, while the long-term memory property diminished significantly in the volatility series of the GARCH(1,1) filtered data. Notably, there is no long-term memory property, when we eliminate the long-term memory property of volatility by the FIGARCH model. For all data used, although the Hurst exponents of the volatility time series changed considerably over time, those of the time series with the volatility clustering effect removed diminish significantly. Our results imply that the long-term memory property of the volatility time series can be attributed to the volatility clustering observed in the financial time series.

  9. FUEL/CARBON PRICE VS. ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGY IN FREIGHT TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Ferdinand Spangenberg

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The current situation is the exponential increase in greenhouse gases (GHG, which is mainly caused by industrial and transport activities. The recent Paris agreement in 2015 (Framework Convention on Climate Change COP21, UNFCCC made it clear to everyone that CO2 emissions are to be limited in all areas of life. Alternative fuels with a lower environmental impact than carbon (CO2 emissions are hard to find if the overall footprint is to be taken into account. Nevertheless, there are some fuels that have less impact on climate change. One the other hand, the production of biofuels is a controversial matter, although it is a viable alternative to emissions reduction. CNG or LNG-powered vehicles are also better in terms of environmental pollution, but are hardly better with regard to CO2 impact when a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is carried out. LNG (liquid natural gas, for example, is the future fuel in the maritime sector because of the stricter environmental regulations (SOx,NOx in the shipping industry. The battery-powered vehicle is another example of an environmentally friendly solution. The afore-mentioned measures can be considered as “abatement“ necessary in order to limit CO2 impact. The study shows that there are significant differences in the environmental impact between transport systems and the corresponding drive-system or associated energy base. The polluter should pay, which is a common basic principle in economic research. The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS has been introduced in order to ensure a reduction in CO2 output – emissions come with a price tag. An overall view is necessary, both en-vironmental and economic impact must be reconciled (cf. Spangenberg - TQI. The future viability of the transport system as we know it may change significantly over time if new environmental requirements or e.g. CO2 taxes or ETS are introduced in the freight sector. The abatement of CO2 should be effected primarily through technological

  10. Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bejger Sylwester

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.

  11. Dimethyl Ether (DME) Assessment of Viscosity Using the New Volatile Fuel Viscometer (VFVM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sivebæk, Ion Marius; Sorenson, Spencer C; Jakobsen, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the development and test of a viscometer capable of handling dimethyl Ether (DME) and other volatile fuels. DME has excellent combustion characteristics in diesel engines but the injection equipment can break down prematurely due to extensive wear when handling this fuel. It ...... is present in very large proportions. It is not believed that reasonably additised DME can reach the same viscosity and lubricity as diesel oil. The solution is rather to design the pumps so they can handle pure DME.......This paper describes the development and test of a viscometer capable of handling dimethyl Ether (DME) and other volatile fuels. DME has excellent combustion characteristics in diesel engines but the injection equipment can break down prematurely due to extensive wear when handling this fuel...

  12. Estimation of Gasoline Price Elasticities of Demand for Automobile Fuel Efficiency in Korea: A Hedonic Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sung Tae [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Myunghun [Keimyung University, Taegu (Korea)

    2001-03-01

    This paper estimates the gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea to examine indirectly whether the government policy of raising fuel prices is effective in inducing less consumption of fuel, relying on a hedonic technique developed by Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984). One of the advantages of this technique is that the data for a single year, without involving variation in the price of gasoline, is sufficient in implementing this study. Moreover, this technique enables us to circumvent the multicollinearity problem, which had reduced reliability of the results in previous hedonic studies. The estimated elasticities of demand for fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline, on average, is 0.42. (author). 30 refs., 3 tabs.

  13. Unemployment rate and price of gasoline predict the fuel economy of purchased new vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    This study examined the relationship between two economic indicatorsthe : unemployment rate and the price of gasolineand the fuel economy of purchased new : vehicles. A regression analysis was performed on U.S. monthly data from October 2007 : ...

  14. Method of evaluation of solar collector cost under fuel price change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klychev, Sh. I.; Sadykova, N. S.; Saifiev, A. U.; Ismanzhanov, A. I.; Samiev, M.

    2013-01-01

    When we take into account the problems of large-scale use of solar energy, the matters of economic perspectives of solar plants in the future become vital. We present the method on whose basis evaluation of the cost of solar collectors is performed taking into account the change in the fuel prices. The method is based on the approach to evaluation of the cost of energy generated by the solar plants offered previously by the authors. Assuming that the components of expenditures for production are not changed, we obtained that the cost of solar collectors will grow, at approximately the same ratio as the growth of the prices for fuel (energy). Thus, the problem of creation of the economically effective solar collectors should be solved already today, at the existing prices for materials and fuel. At present, it is assumed that competitiveness of the solar plants will increase with the growth of the fuel prices. (authors)

  15. Development of fuel prices and its impact on the future development of nuclear energy, the use of computer code DESAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panik, M.; Necas, V.

    2007-01-01

    The thesis is an overview of fuel prices, its key components, such as the particular price and price of natural uranium fuel enrichment. The paper outlines the expected impact of higher fuel prices on the future development of nuclear energy. The last section is devoted to computer code DESAE, designed to calculate and compare advantages and disadvantages of different nuclear systems, but also to calculate the parameters of given nuclear system. They suggested the possibility of using code in practice. (author)

  16. Estimating household fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and LPG prices by census region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this research is to estimate individual fuel prices within the residential sector. The data from four US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, residential energy consumption surveys were used to estimate the models. For a number of important fuel types - fuel oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas - the estimation presents a problem because these fuels are not used by all households. Estimates obtained by using only data in which observed fuel prices are present would be biased. A correction for this self-selection bias is needed for estimating prices of these fuels. A literature search identified no past studies on application of the selectivity model for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. This report describes selectivity models that utilize the Dubin/McFadden correction method for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West census regions. Statistically significant explanatory variables are identified and discussed in each of the models. This new application of the selectivity model should be of interest to energy policy makers, researchers, and academicians

  17. Flex-fuel vehicle adoption and dynamics of ethanol prices: lessons from Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Xiaodong; Carriquiry, Miguel A.

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our research hypotheses: (i) when consumers can choose between the fuels the relative ethanol and gasoline prices converge to a long-run equilibrium level, which is determined by the fuel economy, and (ii) price dynamics are largely determined by market supply and demand factors including the price of sugar, ethanol exports, and composition of vehicle fleet. Furthermore, the impacts of demand factors such as ethanol exports are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs in the vehicle fleet. - Highlights: • The relative prices of ethanol and gasoline in Brazil exhibit strong mean-reversion. • The fuel price dynamics are mainly influenced by supply and demand factors. • The impacts of demand factors are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs

  18. Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing V: Multiscaling hedging and implied volatility smiles under the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Tian

    2011-05-01

    This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.

  19. Volatility Discovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Scherrer, Cristina; Papailias, Fotis

    The price discovery literature investigates how homogenous securities traded on different markets incorporate information into prices. We take this literature one step further and investigate how these markets contribute to stochastic volatility (volatility discovery). We formally show...... that the realized measures from homogenous securities share a fractional stochastic trend, which is a combination of the price and volatility discovery measures. Furthermore, we show that volatility discovery is associated with the way that market participants process information arrival (market sensitivity......). Finally, we compute volatility discovery for 30 actively traded stocks in the U.S. and report that Nyse and Arca dominate Nasdaq....

  20. FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Arino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

  1. Stabilization of high-level waste from a chloride volatility nuclear fuel reprocessing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, L.A.; Thornton, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Methods for stabilizing high-level waste from a chloride volatility thorium-based fuel coprocessing system have been studied. The waste, which is present as chloride salts, is combined with SiO 2 or Al 2 O 3 and pyrohydrolyzed to remove the chloride ions. The resulting solid is then combined with a flux and glassified. 3 figures, 4 tables

  2. The Cost of SOx Limits to Marine Operators; Results from Exploring Marine Fuel Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orestis Schinas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine operators are confronted with the new air emissions regulations that determine the limits of sulfur content in marine fuels. The low-sulfur (LS marine fuels have a higher price, and their fluctuation is almost similar to the fluctuation of high-sulfur (HS fuels. The price difference between HS and LS might also determine the decision of operators for alternative technical means, such as scrubbers, in order to comply with the new limits. This paper aims to provide a thorough statistical analysis of the currently available LS and HS marine fuels time series, as well as to present the analysis of the differential of the HS and LS fuel prices. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research.

  3. Long Run Dynamic Volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the long-run dynamics of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices is important in an era of increased financialization of petroleum markets. Utilizing an ECM within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework, we provide evidence on the cointegrating relationship and estimate how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate disequilibrium. Our findings suggest that the adjustment process of OPEC prices to the positive discrepancies is slow which implies that ...

  4. Wood fuel in Sweden 1800-1990 - consumption and price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, L.

    1992-01-01

    The report presents consumption and price trends of wood fuel in Sweden 1800-1990 and discusses the increase in the use of wood fuel in the 1980's in a long-term perspective. Consumption of wood fuel grew at the same rate as population during most of the 19th century with a share of 95-80 per cent of total fuel consumption. Since the modern industrial breakthrough around the 1880's, consumption of wood fuel has decreased while that of fossiles and electricity have expanded. Temporarily, consumption increased during the world wars, particularly during the second one. The increase after the energy crises of the 1970's differs from those of the wars in some respects - thus, the changes in the conditions of energy supply and energy use were conceived as long-lasting, the increase in consumption took place with markets in function, and an important new user appeared, namely the district heating services. During both the 19th and the 20th century, prices of wood fuel have risen strongly in relation to those of most other products. This increase expresses the shifts in demand to wood resources and the comparatively weak productivity growth in forestry. Compared to prices of fossile fuels, the price increase of wood fuel ended in the 1920's and the relation has since then fluctuated. The strong shift in consumption to fossils from the 1920's is explained rather by the high costs of handling wood fuel. Wood fuel consumption has increased during periods of relatively decreasing wages. While the price increase of wood fuel can stimulate extended production also within agriculture, the study emphasizes the need of productivity growth in wood fuel production as well as product development towards the lowering of the handling costs of the user. (23 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.)

  5. Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl

    2016-01-01

    Using monthly data from the Spanish gasoline retail market we explore asymmetries in consumers’ behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes. In particular, we are interested in investigating whether an increase in gasoline taxes has a more negative impact on the demand than a –similar in magnitude– increase in the “pre-tax” price of gasoline for different fuel types. We estimate fuel consumers’ responses using a rich set of robust panel data models considering potential dynamic effects and endogeneity problems. We find evidence to confirm the existence of asymmetric responses for the demand of unleaded fuels and agricultural diesel fuel. However we cannot support this statement for the regular diesel case: for this fuel both the tax-exclusive price and the tax elasticities are roughly the same. This result agrees with the fact that “diesel drivers” tend to be better informed about changes in both fuel prices and taxes. Some implications in terms of fiscal policy and pollution and climate change policy are also discussed. - Highlights: •Provide evidence of asymmetric responses of gasoline demand due to changes in prices and taxes. •Identify differences in the elasticity of the demand of diesel fuel and unleaded gasoline. •Perform robustness checks considering dynamic effects and IV regression. •Provide some policy recommendations for future gasoline tax changes.

  6. Can reported VaR be used as an indicator of the volatility of share prices? Evidence from UK banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Ou, Shian Kao

    2006-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is used as an indicator to measure the risks contained in a firm. With the uprising development of VaR theory and computational techniques, the VaR is nowadays adopted by banks and reported in annual reports. Since the method to calculate VaR is questioned, and the reported VaR can not be thoroughly audited, this paper attempts to find the relationship between the reported VaR and the volatility of share price for UK listed banks. This paper reviews literature about VaR an...

  7. Effect of fuel volatility on performance of tail-pipe burner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barson, Zelmar; Sargent, Arthur F , Jr

    1951-01-01

    Fuels having Reid vapor pressures of 6.3 and 1.0 pounds per square inch were investigated in a tail-pipe burner on an axial-flow-type turbojet engine at a simulated flight Mach number of 0.6 and altitudes from 20,000 to 45,000 feet. With the burner configuration used in this investigation, having a mixing length of only 8 inches between the fuel manifold and the flame holder, the low-vapor-pressure fuel gave lower combustion efficiency at a given tail-pipe fuel-air ratio. Because the exhaust-nozzle area was fixed, the lower efficiency resulted in lower thrust and higher specific fuel consumption. The maximum altitude at which the burner would operate was practically unaffected by the change in fuel volatility.

  8. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for

  9. Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madowitz, M.; Novan, K.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how applying different combinations of excise and sales taxes on motor fuels impact the volatility of retail fuel prices and tax revenues. Two features of gasoline and diesel markets make the choice of tax mechanism a unique problem. First, prices are very volatile. Second, demand for motor fuels is extremely inelastic. As a result, fuel expenditures vary substantially over time. Tying state revenues to these expenditures, as is the case with a sales tax, results in a volatile stream of revenue which imposes real costs on agents in an economy. On July 1, 2010, California enacted Assembly Bill x8-6, the “Gas Tax Swap”, increasing the excise tax and decreasing the sales tax on gasoline purchases. While the initial motivation behind the revenue neutral swap was to provide the state with greater flexibility within its budget, we highlight that this change has two potentially overlooked benefits; it reduces retail fuel price volatility and tax revenue volatility. Simulating the monthly fuel prices and tax revenues under alternative tax policies, we quantify the potential reductions in revenue volatility. The results reveal that greater benefits can be achieved by going beyond the tax swap and eliminating the gasoline sales tax entirely. - Highlights: • We examine how gasoline taxes affect government revenue volatility. • We simulate the impact of California's Gasoline Tax Swap policy. • Sales taxes are shown to magnify price volatility and government revenue volatility. • A pure excise tax policy results in less volatile fuel prices and state revenues. • We argue that reductions in both forms of volatility are welfare enhancing

  10. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  11. DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.

  12. Analysis of hydrogen, carbon, sulfur and volatile compounds in (U3Si2 - Al) nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moura, Sergio C.; Redigolo, Marcelo M.; Amaral, Priscila O.; Leao, Claudio; Oliveira, Glaucia A.C. de; Bustillos, Oscar V.

    2015-01-01

    Uranium silicide U 3 Si 2 is used as nuclear fuel in the research nuclear reactor IEA-R1 at IPEN/CNEN, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The U 3 Si 2 is dispersed in aluminum reaching high densities of uranium in the nucleus of the fuel, up to 4.8 gU cm -3 . This nuclear fuel must comply with a quality control, which includes analysis of hydrogen, carbon and sulfur for the U 3 Si 2 and volatile compound for the aluminum. Hydrogen, carbon and sulfur are analyzed by the method of Radio Frequency gas extraction combustion coupled with Infrared detector. Volatile compounds are analyzed by the method of heated gas extraction coupled with gravimetric measurement. These methods are recommended by the American Society for Testing Materials (ASTM) for nuclear materials. The average carbon and sulfur measurements are 30 μg g -1 and 3 μg g -1 , respectively, and 40 μg g -1 for volatile compounds. The hydrogen analyzer is a TCHEN 600 LECO, carbon and sulfur analyzer is a CS 244 LECO and the volatile compounds analyzer is a home-made apparatus that use a resistant furnace, a gas pipe measurement and a glove-box with controlled atmosphere where an analytical balance has been installed, this analyzer was made at IPEN laboratory. (author)

  13. Fuel Prices as a Factor of Shaping Profitability of Road Transport in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzantowicz Łukasz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to determine the relation between the price of fuel and the profitability of the company. For this purpose, the article defines the profitability of transport enterprises and points the source of the impact of changes in fuel prices on the profitability of companies in the road transport sector. The case of the ABC transport company shows the relationship between the costs incurred for the purchase of fuel and the cost of transport activities. To test the theoretical assumptions, case study method was used.

  14. Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices; Os equivocos do combate a inflacao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nastari, Plinio Mario [Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    1993-12-31

    The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country 8 figs.

  15. Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Sánchez

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The action consists of moving with small kicks a tin of cola refresh -without Brand-from a point of the city up to other one. During the path I avoid bollards, the slope differences between sidewalks, pedestrians, parked motorcycles, etc. Volatility wants to say exactly that the money is getting lost. That the money is losing by gentlemen and by ladies who are neither financial sharks, nor big businessmen… or similarly, but ingenuous people, as you or as me, who walk down the street.

  16. Effects of fuel price fluctuation on individual CO2 traffic emissions : empirical findings from pseudo panel data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, D.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Globalized concerns about greenhouse gasses and increased energy consumptions have stimulated research in transportation about the relationships between fuel prices and emissions. Many researchers have found that higher fuel price can reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions through a number of

  17. Binomial tree method for pricing a regime-switching volatility stock loans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putri, Endah R. M.; Zamani, Muhammad S.; Utomo, Daryono B.

    2018-03-01

    Binomial model with regime switching may represents the price of stock loan which follows the stochastic process. Stock loan is one of alternative that appeal investors to get the liquidity without selling the stock. The stock loan mechanism resembles that of American call option when someone can exercise any time during the contract period. From the resembles both of mechanism, determination price of stock loan can be interpreted from the model of American call option. The simulation result shows the behavior of the price of stock loan under a regime-switching with respect to various interest rate and maturity.

  18. Risk hedging against the fuel price fluctuation in energy service business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannai, Masaaki; Tomita, Yasushi; Ishida, Yasushi; Miyazaki, Takahiko; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

    2007-01-01

    Energy service business, or energy service company (ESCO), is expanding among industrial users as a means of energy saving. The ESCO business normally tends to become a long-term operation. During the operation, fluctuations of fuel and electricity costs significantly impact on the stability of the profit from ESCO business. Therefore, it is essential to reduce the risk of fuel and electricity cost fluctuations. Generally, a transaction called ''financial derivative'' is used as a measure of hedging against the fuel price fluctuation. In the case of ESCO business, it is necessary to manage the risk of both electricity and fuel price fluctuations because the variation in electricity price strongly affects the profit from ESCO as that in fuel price does. In this paper, the stabilization of the ESCO profit using financial derivatives was discussed by quantitative analyses of the actual data from existing plants. Case studies revealed that the appropriate volume of the fuel derivative implementation was less than a half of the fuel consumption at the ESCO facilities, and it ranged from 5% to 50%. (author)

  19. The impact of oil price volatility on the future of the U.S. economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, Roy; Doroodian, K.; Thornton, Dennis

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of a foreign oil price shock on domestic energy markets as well as the U.S. economy as a whole. The analytical approach employed in the analysis consisted of a dynamic CGE model composed of eight production sectors, eight consumption sectors, three household categories classified by income, foreign sector, and the government. The results show that oil price shocks will have, as expected, a significantly positive effect on crude oil production. We also find that such price shocks negatively affect the refinery sector as input costs rise there. A decline in per-well productivity has the effect of dampening the rise in crude oil extraction and causing a further decline in refinery output. Economy-wide, the impact of a new series of oil price shocks is quite limited with overall welfare falling, but nowhere near the levels experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. (Author)

  20. Estimating Price Elasticity of Demand for Motor Fuel in the Transport Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of long-term forecasts of prices and demand on regional energy markets requires accounting for the future changes in the interactions between the greater economy and its energy sector, along with the possible emergence of new factors and specific regional features determining those interactions. The proposed approach allows the study of a correlation between demand and prices for motor fuel, taking into account the competition of energy carriers, the dynamics of energy prices, resource constraints, the use of new technologies and the uncertainty of input data. The main feature of the proposed approach is the combined estimation of the price elasticity of demand for motor fuel with optimization of fuel supply in the region. Thus the author determined elasticity of demand based on the comparison of economic efficiency of the use of different fuels. The study includes results of experimental calculations and forecasted price according to demand for motor fuel in freight transportation for the expected development conditions of the Far Eastern federal district

  1. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

  2. Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, G.J.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper specifies a multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) model for the S&P500 index and spot interest rate processes. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via the efficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations of underlying state variables, and then investigate the

  3. ALGORITHM FOR GENERALIZED GARMAN EQUATION IN OPTION PRICING OF A FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim Ioan

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In our paper we build a reccurence from generalized Garman equation and discretization of 3-dimensional domain. From reccurence we build an algorithm for computing values of an option based on time, momentan volatility of support and value of support on a

  4. New Evidence on Price and Volatility Effects of Stock Option Introductions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabir, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper adds to the literature dealing with the effect of derivatives trading on underlying securities by examining option listings from the Netherlands. The effects on both stock returns and volatility are investigated using three types of samples, namely, listing of call options alone,

  5. The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhi; Shu, Tengjia; Yin, Libo

    2018-05-01

    Inspired by Herskovic et al. (2016), we investigate the pricing effect of the firm-level common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in China's A-Share market. Return tests indicate that lower CIV risk loadings bring higher returns significantly, while the pricing function of market volatility (MV) is inconsistent. Strategy that goes long the highest CIV-beta quintile and short the lowest CIV-beta quintile brings an annualized average return of 5%-7%. Our findings supplement Herskovic et al. (2016) by confirming a significantly negative relationship between CIV and stock returns in a developing market.

  6. A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China: Challenges and opportunities for energy price reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We measure fossil-fuel subsidies and effects of subsidy removal in a systematic fashion during 2006–2010. • Fossil-fuel subsidies scale of China was CNY 881.94 billion in 2010, equivalent to 2.59% of GDP. • Impacts of removing subsidies on macroeconomic variables are examined by the CGE model. • Future policy should focus on designing transparent, targeted and efficient energy subsidies. - Abstract: Fossil-fuel subsidies contribute to the extensive growth of energy demand and the related carbon dioxide emissions in China. However, the process of energy price reform is slow, even though China faces increasing problems of energy scarcity and environmental deterioration. This paper focuses on analyzing fossil fuel subsidies in China by estimating subsidies scale and the implications for future reform. We begin by measuring fossil-fuel subsidies and the effects of subsidy removal in a systematic fashion during 2006–2010 using a price-gap approach. Results indicate that the oil price reform in 2009 significantly reduced China’s fossil-fuel subsidies and modified the subsidy structure. Fossil-fuel subsidies scale in China was 881.94 billion CNY in 2010, which was lower than the amount in 2006, equivalent to 2.59% of the GDP. The macro-economic impacts of removing fossil-fuel subsidies are then evaluated by the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Results demonstrate that the economic growth and employment will be negatively affected as well as energy demand, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. Finally, policy implications are suggested: first, risks of government pricing of energy are far from negligible; second, an acceptable macroeconomic impact is a criterion for energy price reform in China; third, the future energy policy should focus on designing transparent, targeted and efficient energy subsidies

  7. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  8. A regime-switching stochastic volatility model for forecasting electricity prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter; Knapik, Oskar

    In a recent review paper, Weron (2014) pinpoints several crucial challenges outstanding in the area of electricity price forecasting. This research attempts to address all of them by i) showing the importance of considering fundamental price drivers in modeling, ii) developing new techniques for ...... on explanatory variables. Bayesian inference is explored in order to obtain predictive densities. The main focus of the paper is on shorttime density forecasting in Nord Pool intraday market. We show that the proposed model outperforms several benchmark models at this task....

  9. EFFECT OF GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON STOCK RETURNS:EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz YILDIZ CONTUK

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the effect of fluctuations in gold prices on ISE 100 indexusing daily prices and the index data from 01.01.2009 to 31.12.2012. The rawdata has been converted into earningsyields and analyzed. The study firstdetermines whether or not the use of aGARCH model would beappropriate usinga heteroskedasticity test. The test resultsshow that there was an ARCH effect inboth variables, and that GARCH modeling could be used. The results obtainedfrom MGARCH modeling show that gold and stock exchange yields have beenaffected both by their own shocks and by shocks of each other

  10. Social cost pricing of fossil fuels used in the production of electricity: implications to biomass feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dillivan, K.D.; English, B.C.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of this study is to investigate full social pricing for fossil fuels and the subsequent effect on biomass quantities in the state of Tennessee. The first step is to estimate the full social costs and then to estimate the effects of their internalization. Other objectives are (1) investigate whether or not market imperfections exist, (2) if they exist, how should full social cost pricing be estimated, (3) what other barriers help fossil fuels stay economically attractive and prevent biomass from competing, (4) estimating the demand for biomass, and (5) given this demand for biomass, what are the implications for farmers and producers in Tennessee. (author)

  11. A Comparison of forecasting Volatility startegies into ARCH Class throughPricing

    OpenAIRE

    Marzia Freo

    2003-01-01

    Daily data on the German market index return are used to consider multiple issues in a forecasting comparison of ARCH-type specifications. first, attention is paid to the impact of different sample sizez, different horizons and fitting of historical versus implied data. Secondly, the issue of volatility transmission is addressed by modelling French and Germany market indexes into simultaneous conditionally heteroskedasticity framework. Errors obtained by updating the Black and Scholes formula...

  12. Fast computation of vanilla prices in time-changed models and implied volatilities using rational approximations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistorius, M.; Stolte, J.

    2012-01-01

    We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a number of widely used models. In particular, we use the

  13. Pricing long-term options with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Haastrecht, A.

    2010-01-01

    The markets for long-term options have expanded tremendously over the last decade. Nowadays many of these derivatives along with pension schemes and insurance products depend on joint changes in stock prices, interest rates and inflation. As a result the dependencies between the underlying assets

  14. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuya Ito

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 1980s a large number of studies using a vector autoregressive (VAR model have been made on the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes. However, surprisingly few studies have so far focused on Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables in Russia using the VAR model. The time span covered by the series is from 1994:Q1 to 2009:Q3, giving 63 observations. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase (decrease in oil prices contributes to the depreciation (appreciation of the exchange rate by 0.17% in the long run, whereas it leads to a 0.46% GDP growth (decline. Likewise, we find that in the short run (8 quarters rising oil prices cause not only the GDP growth and the exchange rate depreciation, but also a marginal increase in inflation rate.

  15. Price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373 ISSN 1932-104X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf

  16. Effects of SO2 emission regulations and fuel prices on levellized energy costs for industrial steam generation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozdogan, Sibel; Arikol, Mahir

    1992-01-01

    We discuss the impacts of SO 2 emission regulations and fuel prices on levellized energy costs of industrial steam generation options. A computer model called INDUSTEAM has been utilized. The steam-supply options comprise conventional grate-firing, bubbling and circulating fluidized beds, fuel-oil, and natural-gas-fired systems. Fuels of different SO 2 pollution potential have been evaluated assuming six environmental scenarios and varying fuel prices. A capacity range of 10-90 MW th is covered. (author)

  17. Light-duty vehicle fuel economy improvements, 1979--1998: A consumer purchase model of corporate average fuel economy, fuel price, and income effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, David Michael

    2000-10-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, which created fuel economy standards for automobiles and light trucks, was passed by Congress in response to the rapid rise in world oil prices as a result of the 1973 oil crisis. The standards were first implemented in 1978 for automobiles and 1979 for light trucks, and began with initial standards of 18 MPG for automobiles and 17.2 MPG for light trucks. The current fuel economy standards for 1998 have been held constant at 27.5 MPG for automobiles and 20.5 MPG for light trucks since 1990--1991. While actual new automobile fuel economy has almost doubled from 14 MPG in 1974 to 27.2 MPG in 1994, it is reasonable to ask if the CAFE standards are still needed. Each year Congress attempts to pass another increase in the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard and fails. Many have called for the abolition of CAFE standards citing the ineffectiveness of the standards in the past. In order to determine whether CAFE standards should be increased, held constant, or repealed, an evaluation of the effectiveness of the CAFE standards to date must be established. Because fuel prices were rising concurrently with the CAFE standards, many authors have attributed the rapid rise in new car fuel economy solely to fuel prices. The purpose of this dissertation is to re-examine the determinants of new car fuel economy via three effects: CAFE regulations, fuel price, and income effects. By measuring the marginal effects of the three fuel economy determinants upon consumers and manufacturers choices, for fuel economy, an estimate was made of the influence of each upon new fuel economy. The conclusions of this dissertation present some clear signals to policymakers: CAFE standards have been very effective in increasing fuel economy from 1979 to 1998. Furthermore, they have been the main cause of fuel economy improvement, with income being a much smaller component. Furthermore, this dissertation has suggested that fuel prices have

  18. Demand, supply and fuel prices forecast to the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This paper summarizes the Western European energy situation, and deals with specific aspects under the headings: European oil prices fall until 1987; prospects for oil recovery; transport sector holds oil demand up as oil demand loses favour in other sectors; upstream uncertainties; continued slackness of European natural gas market poses threat to oil; problems for European coal industry; dramatic growth in nuclear power; breeder reactors to play minimal role; PWRs will remain dominant. The situation in individual countries - Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain - is analysed. (U.K.)

  19. Behavior of Stock Price Variability over Trading and Nontrading Periods, and Daily Return Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumiyana Sumiyana

    2007-09-01

    This study concludes that return variance over trading and nontrading periods, along with overnight and lunch break nontrading session, and the first and second trading session, has differed significantly. In addition, daily return volatility is also not identical significantly. Subsequently, this study used size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and up-down market as control variables. This study contradicts to all prior studies. This study especially suggests contra evidence in comparisons with previous concepts and theories in regards to size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and up-down market as control variables.

  20. Calculating the price trajectory of adoption of fuel cell vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adamson, K.-A. [Technical University of Berlin (Germany). Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Research Centre

    2005-03-01

    How do you model consumer behaviour for disruptive technologies? Technologies that potentially have no antecedents and that, by their very definition, change consumer behaviour patterns? This paper outlines a methodology and results employed during a study to model the consumer willingness to pay for fuel cell vehicles, a potential disruptive innovation (DI). The first part of the study provides a short overview on DI highlighting why the fuel cell family of technologies may represent an upcoming DI. From the post ante study of successful historical disruptive innovations a number of initial rules of adoption' can be sketched. Further narrowing of the focus on economic reasons for adoption provides a framework for which the willingness to pay for the new disruptive technology, such as, here, fuel cell vehicles, can be analysed during different phases of the market. This economic framework is then applied to the potential future market of fuel cell vehicles using information from a model that was built from vehicles during the build years 1994-2002 in the subcompact, compact and luxury class. The results presented in this paper concentrate on the subcompact and compact class of vehicle and supersede the initial results previously published. Finally, there is a short discussion on different pathways that this can be taken forward and used to help in policy decisions. (author)

  1. Calculation of fuel, currency, and inland freight price adjustment factors for military marine shipping

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    This report describes the refreshing of the USTRANSCOM Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) factors for use in the USC-7 contract. The three EPA factors developed by Volpe in 2009 are the starting point for this update, and these are the Bunker Fuel Adjus...

  2. Long term fuel price elasticity: effects on mobility tool ownership and residential location choice - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erath, A.; Axhausen, K. W.

    2010-04-15

    This comprehensive final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) examines the long-term effects of fuel price elasticity. The study analyses how mobility tool usage and ownership as well as residence location choice are affected by rising fuel costs. Based on econometric models, long-term fuel price elasticity is derived. The authors quote that the demand reactions to higher fuel prices mainly observed are the reduction of mileage and the consideration of smaller-engined and diesel-driven cars. As cars with natural gas powered engines and electric drives were hardly considered in the survey, the results of the natural gas model can, according to the authors, only serve as a trend. No stable model could be estimated for the demand and usage of electric cars. A literature overview is presented and the design of the survey is discussed, whereby socio-demographical variables and the effects of price and residence changes are discussed. Modelling of mobility tool factors and results obtained are looked at. Finally, residence choice factors are modelled and discussed. Several appendices complete the report.

  3. Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; economic uses fact sheet 07: markets and log prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service

    2004-01-01

    Markets and prices for logs vary widely across the West, fluctuating from place to place in response to regional variables and hauling costs. This fact sheet discusses those variables, locality of log markets, markets for low-value logs, and caveats to consider when using My Fuel Treatment Planner.

  4. Reforming fossil fuel prices in India: Dilemma of a developing economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anand, Mukesh Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Over the period between 1990–1 and 2012–3, fossil fuel use on farms has risen and its indirect use in farming, particularly for non-energy purposes, is also growing. Consequently, both energy intensity and fossil fuel intensity are rising for Indian agriculture. But, these are declining for the aggregate Indian economy. Thus, revision of fossil fuel prices acquires greater significance for Indian agriculture than for rest of the economy. There are significant differences across crops. The crop-level analysis is supplemented by an alternative approach that utilizes a three-sector input–output (I–O) model for the Indian economy representing farming, fossil fuels, and rest of economy. Fossil fuels sector is assessed to portray, in general, strong forward linkages. The increase in total cost of farming, for a given change in fossil fuel prices, is estimated as a multiple of increase in direct input cost of fossil fuels in farming. From the three-sector aggregated economy this multiple was estimated at 3.99 for 1998–9. But it grew to 6.7 in 2007–8. The findings have stronger ramifications than commonly recognized, for inflation and cost of implementing the policy on food security. - Highlights: •Fossil fuels’ contribution in primary energy supply has risen from 55 to 75 per cent. •Energy intensity halved for aggregate GDP, but doubled for agricultural GDP. •Impact of fossil fuel price increase on farming costs mimics a widening spiral. •Total cost of farming may increase 6.7 times the increase in direct fuel input cost.

  5. Survey regarding the prices of wood fuels over the 2014 - 2015 period - Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fautrad, Alice

    2015-11-01

    The study conducted by CODA Strategies contains, in a first part, the synthesis and the full report of the results of a survey realized in 2015 among distributors of wood fuels for domestic, commercial, industrial and collective housing purposes. A second report presents the 2014-2015 fuel prices for commercial, industrial and collective housing markets only. This report is based on data published by the CEEB and proposes a method to estimate the cost of delivery. A third report presents the 2014-2015 results of a survey realized among distributors of wood fuels for domestic purposes only. This report also presents data regarding wood pellets price, in order to place the French market in its international context. A last report presents a French/English synthesis of the the 2014-2015 survey results

  6. Influence of the pro-ecological tax on the market prices of fuels and electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szargut, Jan; Stanek, Wojciech

    2008-01-01

    The proposed pro-ecological tax should be proportional to the cumulative consumption of non-renewable natural exergy burdening the considered product. It should replace the existing value-added tax (VAT). The income of the state after introducing the new tax, should remain without any change. That principle determines the coefficient of proportionality between the cumulative consumption of non-renewable exergy and the value of the tax. The total value of the tax should be paid to the state after extracting the minerals and fuels from nature and importing the fuels and semi-finished products, then transferred to the subsequent products in a form of their elevated price. Hence, the tax is eventually paid by the consumers in the form of an elevated price of goods and services. The total income of the society should remain without any changes. The largest price increase will appear in the case of fuels and electricity. The prices of electricity produced from renewable resources are calculated too, taking into account the accompanying unavoidable consumption of non-renewable exergy for the construction of the power plant. The new VAT should enhance the economy of the most energy-consuming products, stimulate the mitigation of the total consumption level of the society and increase the application of the renewable energy resources. (author)

  7. Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2016-02-01

    This paper examines the long memory behavior in the volatility of gold returns using daily data for the period 1985-2009. We divided the whole sample into eight sub-samples in order to analyze the robustness and consistency of our results during different crisis periods. This constitutes our main contribution. We cover four major world crises, namely, (i) the US stock market crash of 1987; (ii) the Asian financial crisis of 1997; (iii) the World Trade Center terrorist attack of 2001 and finally, (iv) the sub-prime crisis of 2007, in order to investigate how the fractional integrated parameter of the FIGARCH(1, d,1) model evolves over time. Our findings are twofold: (i) there is evidence of long memory in the conditional variance over the whole sample period; (ii) when we consider the sub-sample analysis, the results show mixed evidence. Thus, for the 1985-2003 period the long memory parameter is positive and statistically significant in the pre-crisis sub-samples, and there is no evidence of long memory in the crisis sub-sample periods; however the reverse pattern occurs for the 2005-2009 period. This highlights the unique characteristics of the 2007 sub-prime crisis.

  8. Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, Paul J.; Nishitateno, Shuhei

    2013-01-01

    Countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline. This paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport. To address the potential for simultaneity bias, we use both a country's oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country's average gasoline pump price. We obtain estimates of the long-run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between − 0.2 and − 0.5. Using newly available data for a sub-sample of 43 countries, we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel-efficient, with an estimated elasticity of + 0.2. Despite the small size of our elasticity estimates, there is considerable scope for low-price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and/or increasing gasoline taxes. - Highlights: ► We estimate the determinants of gasoline demand and new-vehicle fuel economy. ► Estimates are for a large sample of countries for the period 1995–2008. ► We instrument for gasoline prices using oil reserves and the world crude oil price. ► Gasoline demand and fuel economy are inelastic with respect to the gasoline price. ► Large energy efficiency gains are possible via higher gasoline prices

  9. Hogged wood fuel price analysis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biederman, R.T.; Blazek, C.F.; Fox, P.J.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the results of a comprehensive analysis of wood residues used for meeting energy requirements in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. These wood residues are generated primarily from cutting, sawing, planning, sanding, and debarking activities in the lumber and plywood industries. While high-quality wood residues are commonly used as raw material in the manufacture of pulp and board commodities, a very large amount of wood residues are ultimately used for plant fuel purposes. The characteristics of this market for hogged wood fuel are examined in depth, with particular emphasis given to the factors which affect the supply, demand and price of hogged wood. Hogged wood has played an enormous role in the Pacific Northwest for over sixty years, a result of the massive regional timber harvest. Utilization of this renewable energy resource continues to be a large component in regional energy supply. Despite having a large number of highly integrated mills that both use and produce wood residues, the Pacific Northwest region experiences a lively trade in hogged wood. The IGT study discussed herein examines the determinants of the regional market price for hogged wood. A number of useful leading indicators are identified, and a statistical forecasting model is prepared to help predict future hogged wood prices. This model provides insight into the factors that are, and are not, important determinants of hogged wood price. The issue of fuel substitution is addressed in relation to the potential of hogged wood to displace some amount of primary energy sources such as natural gas and electricity. Also examined in the study are techniques to estimate the actual quantity of hogged wood available, and the quantity demanded by the marketplace. Conclusions presented in the study have important ramifications for understanding the price behavior and utilization of hogged wood fuel. 4 refs., 12 figs

  10. The Impact of Oil Prices on Irish Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    O'Brien, Derry; Weymes, Laura

    2010-01-01

    Oil prices have been characterised by large fluctuations in recent years. Strong volatility in oil prices has important implications for the Irish economy as Ireland has a relatively poor fuel endowment and relies heavily on imported oil. Energy price increases have been one of the principal drivers behind HICP inflation rates in Ireland in recent years. This article highlights the distinctive features of the Irish energy market which render the impact of oil price changes on Irish inflation ...

  11. China's coal price disturbances: Observations, explanations, and implications for global energy economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chi-Jen; Xuan, Xiaowei; Jackson, Robert B.

    2012-01-01

    Since China decontrolled coal prices, its coal price has risen steadily and been unusually volatile. In 2011 in particular, high coal prices and capped electricity prices in China discouraged coal-fired power generation, triggering widespread power shortages. We suggest that these coal-price disturbances could be symptomatic of a major change in pricing dynamics of global fossil-fuel markets, with increasing correspondence between coal and oil prices globally. Historically, global coal prices have been more stable and lower than oil and natural gas prices on a per-heat basis. In recent years, however, coal prices have been increasingly volatile worldwide and have tracked other fossil fuel prices more closely. Meanwhile, the recent development of unconventional gas has substantially decoupled US natural gas and oil prices. Technically, low US natural gas prices, with potential fuel switching, could drive US domestic coal prices lower. However, this effect is unlikely to counteract the overall trend in increasing coal consumption globally. China's market size and unique, partially-controlled energy system make its reform agenda a key force in the global economy. Policymakers in the US, E.U. and elsewhere should monitor China's economic reform agenda to anticipate and respond to changes accompanying China's increasing importance in the global energy economy. - Highlights: ► Since China decontrolled its coal prices, the price of coal has risen steadily in China, accompanied by unusual volatility. ► Relatively high and volatile coal prices have triggered widespread power shortages in China. ► Coal and oil prices have already become, and continue to become, more closely linked globally. ► China's demand will likely drive up global coal prices and make them as volatile as that of other fossil fuels. ► Policymakers should monitor China's economic reform agenda to anticipate and respond to changes in the global energy economy.

  12. Method for processing coal-enrichment waste with solid and volatile fuel inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasanova, A. V.; Zhirgalova, T. B.; Osintsev, K. V.

    2017-10-01

    The method relates to the field of industrial heat and power engineering. It can be used in coal preparation plants for processing coal waste. This new way is realized to produce a loose ash residue directed to the production of silicate products and fuel gas in rotary kilns. The proposed method is associated with industrial processing of brown coal beneficiation waste. Waste is obtained by flotation separation of rock particles up to 13 mm in size from coal particles. They have in their composition both solid and volatile fuel inclusions (components). Due to the high humidity and significant rock content, low heat of combustion, these wastes are not used on energy boilers, they are stored in dumps polluting the environment.

  13. Oil price, government policies fuel industry's shift from U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silas, C.J.

    1991-01-01

    The world exploration outlook starts with the outlook for the price of oil. This paper reports that oil prices and government policies for fuel industries shift from the U.S. If we've learned anything in the past decade it's that we're not very good at predicting oil prices. We can build economic models of supply and demand but we can't build models for political events in the Middle East or the actions of someone like Saddam Hussein. As we look to 2000 our best estimate is that oil will remain at about $20 for the near term and move upward very gradually during the rest of the decade. Of course, rising demand eventually should cause oil prices to break out and show some strength. But not soon. We don't see oil prices overcoming inflation until the latter part of the decade. And we aren't expecting oil prices much above $25 in inflation adjusted terms until the next century

  14. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  15. How to Avoid the Usual Price Rule on the Fuel Market in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Semerád

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with value added tax evasions on the fuel market in the Czech Republic. This commodity is used in carousel fraud. In the chains of taxpayers there are missing traders who fail to meet their tax obligations. Their business strategy is based on quick sales at unusually low prices which do not allow honest parties to compete. Tax administrators should focus on unusual prices which constitute a higher probability of tax evasions. This paper aims to verify whether or not there are ways to evade the measure, focusing specifically on applying methods which could help achieve lower sales prices while avoiding the possibility to require unpaid tax from the recipients of taxable supply. The weaknesses thus found are described and demonstrated in more detail in the paper. During a research some ways were found which could be used for avoiding this specific measure. Methods of Cash Back and Free Shipping were identified and described.

  16. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon [Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

  17. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon; Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation

  18. Payback Period for Emissions Abatement Alternatives: Role of Regulation and Fuel Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zis, Thalis; Angeloudis, Panagiotis; Bell, Michael G. H.

    2016-01-01

    As of January 2015, the new maximum limit of fuel sulfur content for ships sailing within emission control areas has been reduced to 0.1%. A critical decision for ship owners in advance of the new limits was the selection of an abatement method that complies with the regulations. Two main options...... exist: investing in scrubber systems that remove sulfur dioxide emissions from the exhaust and switching to low-sulfur fuel when sailing in regulated waters. The first option would involve significant capital costs, while the latter would lead to operating cost increases because of the higher price...

  19. Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Maystadt, Jean-Francois; Ecker, Olivier; Mabiso, Athur

    2013-01-01

    Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context, weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks with drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is valid also for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Ou...

  20. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO 2 -intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO 2 -intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  1. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  2. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli, E-mail: pauli.lappi@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikka, Kimmo, E-mail: kimmo.ollikka@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikainen, Markku, E-mail: markku.ollikainen@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion.

  3. Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero-Jordan, Desiderio; Del Rio, Pablo; Jorge-Garcia, Marta; Burguillo, Mercedes

    2010-01-01

    The significant increase in passenger transport activity (cars) experienced by Spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects, including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The aim of this paper, which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport, is fourfold: (1) to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the Spanish passenger transport system and the related problems; (2) to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel; (3) to apply this model to the Spanish passenger transport sector; (4) to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model. It is claimed that, in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable, a combination of instruments is necessary. Fuel taxes play an important role within this combination. Apart from their long-term effects, the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues, which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments. (author)

  4. Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero-Jordan, Desiderio [Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid (Spain); Del Rio, Pablo [Institute for Public Goods and Policies (IPP), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), C/Albasanz, 26-28, Madrid 28037 (Spain); Jorge-Garcia, Marta [Universidad de Leon (Spain); Burguillo, Mercedes [Universidad de Alcala (Spain)

    2010-08-15

    The significant increase in passenger transport activity (cars) experienced by Spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects, including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The aim of this paper, which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport, is fourfold: (1) to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the Spanish passenger transport system and the related problems; (2) to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel; (3) to apply this model to the Spanish passenger transport sector; (4) to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model. It is claimed that, in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable, a combination of instruments is necessary. Fuel taxes play an important role within this combination. Apart from their long-term effects, the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues, which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments. (author)

  5. Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

  6. Dimethyl Ether (DME) - Development and Test of the New Volatile Fuel Tribo-Tester VFTT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sivebæk, Ion Marius; Sorenson, Spencer C; Moeller, P.

    2002-01-01

    of DME is significantly reduced then. As a result of the above, the work described in this paper was initiated. It introduces the search for materials that can cope with the properties of pure DME. In order to do so, a method capable of testing materials in DME was developed: The new volatile fuel tribo......: The lubricity and the viscosity. In former works these properties of DME were established to be very low. They can be raised by additising DME so that it acquires the same physical properties as diesel oil. In this case the DME blend is mainly composed of additive though. This means that the emission advantage....... These parameters are then compared with those obtained for diesel oil lubricating two steel surfaces in order to establish whether the chosen materials will ensure full lifetime of the injection equipment....

  7. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  8. The unstudied barriers to widespread renewable energy deployment: Fossil fuel price responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, Edward; Contestabile, Marcello; Blazquez, Jorge; Manzano, Baltasar; Workman, Mark; Shah, Nilay

    2017-01-01

    Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards renewable power should continue without the need for further renewable energy subsidies. However, this reasoning implicitly assumes that the cost of fossil fuel power generation does not respond to the large scale penetration of renewable power. In this paper we build a standard economic framework to test the validity of this assumption, particularly in the case of coal and gas fired power generation. We find that it is likely that the cost of fossil fuel power generation will respond to the large scale penetration of renewables, thus making the renewable energy transition slower or more costly than anticipated. More analysis is needed in order to be able to quantify this effect, the occurrence of which should be considered in the renewable energy discourse. - Highlights: • Renewables are increasingly competing with fossil fuel power generation. • This may have various effects on the fossil fuel generation value chain. • One such possible effect is a response of fossil fuel prices to renewables deployment. • We have tested this hypothesis using a supply-demand analytical framework. • We found that the effect is likely to occur and should be further investigated.

  9. Regarding fuel prices and automobility. A brief analysis of price and cost elasticities; Over brandstofprijzen en automobiliteit. Een beknopte analyse van prijs- en kostenelasticiteit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groot, W.

    2012-01-15

    Car drivers do not drive significantly less when fuel prices at the pump rise. If fuel prices increase by approximately 12.5 percent, the long-term decrease in car kilometres travelled is just 2.5 percent. Higher fuel prices have also not resulted in a more fuel-efficient 'car fleet' (i.e. the range of available car model types). The fuel consumption rate per kilometre remained relatively constant from the late 1980s to 2009, although recent years have seen a marked improvement in the per kilometre fuel consumption rate, as measured in CO2 emissions of new passenger cars. These were the findings of the title study, conducted by the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. This study was based on data covering the period 1980 to 2009. The majority of the definitive effects of higher fuel prices revealed in this study were less pronounced than the effects previously cited in available literature, especially with regard to the long-term effects [Dutch] Uit de titel studie blijkt dat automobilisten in beperkte mate minder gaan rijden als de brandstofprijzen aan de pomp stijgen. Een stijging van de benzineprijs met ongeveer 12,5 procent leidt op langere termijn tot een vermindering van de hoeveelheid afgelegde kilometers met 2,5 procent. De hoge brandstofprijzen hebben ook niet geleid tot een zuiniger wagenpark. Het benzineverbruik per kilometer is tussen het eind van de jaren tachtig en 2009 vrijwel gelijk gebleven. Met als kanttekening dat in de meest recente jaren sprake is van een zichtbare verbetering van het verbruik per kilometer, afgemeten aan de CO2-uitstoot van nieuwe personenauto's. Het KiM heeft zich in de studie gebaseerd op cijfers over de periode 1980-2009. De meeste in het onderzoek vastgestelde effecten van hogere benzineprijzen zijn kleiner dan de effecten die in de beschikbare literatuur zijn aangetroffen. Dit geldt vooral voor de effecten op de lange termijn.

  10. Regarding fuel prices and automobility. A brief analysis of price and cost elasticities; Over brandstofprijzen en automobiliteit. Een beknopte analyse van prijs- en kostenelasticiteit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groot, W.

    2012-01-15

    Car drivers do not drive significantly less when fuel prices at the pump rise. If fuel prices increase by approximately 12.5 percent, the long-term decrease in car kilometres travelled is just 2.5 percent. Higher fuel prices have also not resulted in a more fuel-efficient 'car fleet' (i.e. the range of available car model types). The fuel consumption rate per kilometre remained relatively constant from the late 1980s to 2009, although recent years have seen a marked improvement in the per kilometre fuel consumption rate, as measured in CO2 emissions of new passenger cars. These were the findings of the title study, conducted by the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. This study was based on data covering the period 1980 to 2009. The majority of the definitive effects of higher fuel prices revealed in this study were less pronounced than the effects previously cited in available literature, especially with regard to the long-term effects [Dutch] Uit de titel studie blijkt dat automobilisten in beperkte mate minder gaan rijden als de brandstofprijzen aan de pomp stijgen. Een stijging van de benzineprijs met ongeveer 12,5 procent leidt op langere termijn tot een vermindering van de hoeveelheid afgelegde kilometers met 2,5 procent. De hoge brandstofprijzen hebben ook niet geleid tot een zuiniger wagenpark. Het benzineverbruik per kilometer is tussen het eind van de jaren tachtig en 2009 vrijwel gelijk gebleven. Met als kanttekening dat in de meest recente jaren sprake is van een zichtbare verbetering van het verbruik per kilometer, afgemeten aan de CO2-uitstoot van nieuwe personenauto's. Het KiM heeft zich in de studie gebaseerd op cijfers over de periode 1980-2009. De meeste in het onderzoek vastgestelde effecten van hogere benzineprijzen zijn kleiner dan de effecten die in de beschikbare literatuur zijn aangetroffen. Dit geldt vooral voor de effecten op de lange termijn.

  11. PRICE TRANSMISSION AND HOUSEHOLDS DEMAND ELASTICITY FOR FROZEN FISH UNDER FUEL SUBSIDY REFORM IN DELTA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achoja Felix Odemero

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuel subsidy removal is assumed to translate to general increase in the cost of operating business such as fish marketing.The response of price of fish and corresponding demand elasticity are welfare issues worthy of investigation in Nigeria. The present study evaluates price transmission in fish marketing system by analysing the response of fish market indices to fuel subsidy reform in Nigeria. Primary data collected with structured questionnaire from purposively selected 78 frozen fish marketers, were analysed with descriptive statistics and regression model. A test of hypothesis shows a significant price transmission of about 100% (P < 0.05. Marketing cost increased by 31.8% and profitability dropped by 24.20%, confirming negative effect of new price regime. The result further revealed a 0.05% drop in quantity of frozen fish demanded by households. It was recommended that economic measures should be introduced by the government to cushion the effect of fuel policy removal.

  12. Network-based model for predicting the effect of fuel price on transit ridership and greenhouse gas emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael W. Levin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As fuel prices increase, drivers may make travel choices to minimize not only travel time, but also fuel consumption. Consideration of fuel consumption would affect route choice and influence trip frequency and mode choice. For instance, travelers may elect to live closer to their workplace, or use public transit to avoid fuel consumption and the associated costs. To incorporate network characteristics into predictions of the effects of fuel prices, we develop a multi-class combined elastic demand, mode choice, and user equilibrium model using a generalized cost function of travel time and fuel consumption with a combined solution algorithm. The algorithm is implemented in a custom software package, and a case study application on the Austin, Texas network is presented. We evaluate the fuel-price sensitivity of key variables such as drive-alone and transit class proportions, person-miles traveled, link-level traffic flow and per capita fuel consumption and emissions. These effects are examined across a heterogeneous demand set, with multiple user-classes categorized based on their value of travel time. The highest relative transit elasticities against fuel price are observed among low value of time classes, as expected. Although total personal vehicle travel decreases, congestion increases on some roads due to the generalized cost function. Reductions in system-wide fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are observed as well. The study uncovers the combined interactions among fuel prices, multi-modal choice behavior, travel performance, and resultant environmental impacts, all of which dictate the urban travel market. It also equips agencies with motivation to tailor emissions reduction and transit-ridership stimulus policies around the most responsive user classes.

  13. Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

    2017-12-01

    The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable

  14. Rapid fuel switching from coal to natural gas through effective carbon pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, I. A. Grant; Staffell, Iain

    2018-05-01

    Great Britain's overall carbon emissions fell by 6% in 2016, due to cleaner electricity production. This was not due to a surge in low-carbon nuclear or renewable sources; instead it was the much-overlooked impact of fuel switching from coal to natural gas generation. This Perspective considers the enabling conditions in Great Britain and the potential for rapid fuel switching in other coal-reliant countries. We find that spare generation and fuel supply-chain capacity must already exist for fuel switching to deliver rapid carbon savings, and to avoid further high-carbon infrastructure lock-in. More important is the political will to alter the marketplace and incentivize this switch, for example, through a stable and strong carbon price. With the right incentives, fuel switching in the power sector could rapidly achieve on the order of 1 GtCO2 saving per year worldwide (3% of global emissions), buying precious time to slow the growth in cumulative carbon emissions.

  15. Price elasticity of Swiss motor fuel demand; Elasticite-prix de la demande d'essence en Suisse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranzini, A. [Haute Ecole de Gestion de Geneve (HEG-Geneve), Centre de Recherche Appliquee en Gestion (CRAG), Carouge (Switzerland); Neto, D.; Weber, S. [Universite de Geneve, Laboratoire d' Economie Appliquee (LEA), Geneve (Switzerland)

    2009-07-15

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) by the University of Geneva takes a look at the price elasticity of motor fuel demand in Switzerland. Macro-economic data on petrol and diesel consumption is used to calculate short and long-term price elasticity. Various factors that have an influence on prices are discussed. Data for the period 1970 - 2008 is used. A method developed by Engle and Granger is used to examine short and long-term developments in this area. A large number of variables are used in mathematical models to explain price developments. The methods used are described and the results are presented in tabular form. Various external effects such the oil-price shocks and price developments in neighbouring countries are examined.

  16. Price elasticity of Swiss motor fuel demand; Elasticite-prix de la demande d'essence en Suisse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranzini, A. [Haute Ecole de Gestion de Geneve (HEG-Geneve), Centre de Recherche Appliquee en Gestion (CRAG), Carouge (Switzerland); Neto, D.; Weber, S. [Universite de Geneve, Laboratoire d' Economie Appliquee (LEA), Geneve (Switzerland)

    2009-07-15

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) by the University of Geneva takes a look at the price elasticity of motor fuel demand in Switzerland. Macro-economic data on petrol and diesel consumption is used to calculate short and long-term price elasticity. Various factors that have an influence on prices are discussed. Data for the period 1970 - 2008 is used. A method developed by Engle and Granger is used to examine short and long-term developments in this area. A large number of variables are used in mathematical models to explain price developments. The methods used are described and the results are presented in tabular form. Various external effects such the oil-price shocks and price developments in neighbouring countries are examined.

  17. American options under stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

    2011-01-01

    The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility

  18. Evaluation of the price volatility of short-term in Brazil and its relation with the thermal generation; Avaliacao da volatilidade do preco de curto prazo no Brasil e sua relacao com a geracao termica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heideier, R.B.; Prado, F.A.A.; Saidel, M.A.; Ueocka, M.Z. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (EPUSP), SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas], E-mails: fernando@sinerconsult.com.br, saidel@pea.usp.br, marcos.ueocka@poli.usp.br

    2009-07-01

    This article evaluate the intensity of volatility of the electric power prices in the short term market in selected countries. It were analyzed historical series of monthly prices of major energy markets worldwide, with assessment of the energy matrix of each region. The study, by analysis of data entry program for optimizing the operation of the SIN (NEWAVE and DECOM), concludes that the price volatility in short-term in Brazil is marked by the large variation of thermal power available, especially the lack of natural gas.

  19. The Effect on the Indicators of Unemployment of International Crude Oil Price Volatility: Empirical Findings on the Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birol Erkan

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Oil prices may have an impact on economic activity through various transmission channels. A number of recent studies have emphasized the role of oil prices and macro-economic variables. The aim of this paper is to study the short-term/longterm relationship between oil prices and unemployment in Turkey. The most common cause of increasing oil prices over the last thirty years has been a decrease in supply. Prices increased during the early 1970s as OPEC reduced supply. Again prices increased in the late 1970s and early 1980s as the collapse of the government of the Shah of Iran and subsequent war between Iran and Iraq threatened supply. We applied Granger causal modals to determine if oil prices “Granger Caused” unemployment for data between 2005:01 and 2009:12 in Turkey. However, we performed Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR to determine the relationship between to variables in question, to estimate these relationships and to determine the delay values. As a result, long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate are available in Turkey, and changes in the unemployment rate do not affect oil prices, oil prices changes affect the unemployment rate (this effect is the opposite direction

  20. Short‑Term and Long‑Term Relationships Between Prices of Imported Oil and Fuel Products in the U. S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Adamec

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1: average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec, imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular, premium quality gasoline price (Premium and kerosene price (Kerosene in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

  1. The substitutive effect of biofuels on fossil fuels in the lower and higher crude oil price periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Ting-Huan; Su, Hsin-Mei

    2010-01-01

    Various biofuels, including bioethanol and biodiesel are technologically being considered replacements for fossil fuels, such as the conventional gasoline and diesel. This paper aims to measure whether economic substitutability can be generated during periods of higher and/or lower prices of crude oil. The empirical results of the bivariate EGARCH model prove that this substitutive effect was occurred during the higher crude oil price period due to the significant price spillover effects from crude oil futures to corn and soybean futures, indicating that the increase in food prices can be attributed to more consumption of biofuels. We suggest more extensive research in the search for fuel alternatives from inedible feedstock such as pongamia, jojoba, jatropha, especially the 2nd generation biofuel technologies such as algae-based biofuels. (author)

  2. The substitutive effect of biofuels on fossil fuels in the lower and higher crude oil price periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Ting-Huan [Energy and Environment Research Laboratories, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Hsinchu County 310 (China); Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, No.151, Ying-Chuan Road, Taipei County 251 (China); Su, Hsin-Mei [Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, No.151, Ying-Chuan Road, Taipei County 251 (China)

    2010-07-15

    Various biofuels, including bioethanol and biodiesel are technologically being considered replacements for fossil fuels, such as the conventional gasoline and diesel. This paper aims to measure whether economic substitutability can be generated during periods of higher and/or lower prices of crude oil. The empirical results of the bivariate EGARCH model prove that this substitutive effect was occurred during the higher crude oil price period due to the significant price spillover effects from crude oil futures to corn and soybean futures, indicating that the increase in food prices can be attributed to more consumption of biofuels. We suggest more extensive research in the search for fuel alternatives from inedible feedstock such as pongamia, jojoba, jatropha, especially the 2nd generation biofuel technologies such as algae-based biofuels. (author)

  3. Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matar, Walid; Murphy, Frederic; Pierru, Axel; Rioux, Bertrand

    2015-01-01

    Using a multi-sector equilibrium model of the Saudi energy system that handles administered prices in a mixed-complementarity formulation, we present results from a set of policy scenarios that lower oil consumption in the country. Some of these scenarios are the solutions to Mathematical Programs subject to Equilibrium Constraints (MPECs) that maximize the net economic gain for the Saudi economy. The policies examined have the potential to generate economic gains exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011, or about 4% of Saudi Arabia's GDP. This economic gain comes mainly from inter-sectoral fuel pricing policies that incent shifting the mix in technologies that generate electricity and produce water from energy intensive technologies to more efficient ones. We show that when complemented by credits for investments in solar and nuclear power generation capacities, a modest increase in the transfer prices of fuels among sectors is sufficient to produce economic gains close to those achieved by deregulating transfer prices. The approach we develop here is an alternative to the classic recommendation of deregulating inter-sectoral fuel prices in situations where the conditions for successful liberalized markets do not exist. It is a template for introducing the notions of incentivizing behavior using prices into countries that rely more on administrative procedures than markets, leading to a deeper understanding of how markets can lead to economic gain. - Highlights: • The policies examined would have potentially generated economic gains exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011. • We design policies that produce economic benefits close to those achieved by deregulating inter-sectoral fuel prices. • This paper provides a template for building multi-sector models when transfer prices between sectors are administered

  4. Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Priyanka Singh; Brajesh Kumar; Pandey, Ajay

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates interdependence of fifteen world indices including an Indian market index in terms of return and volatility spillover effect. Interdependence of Indian stock market with other fourteen world markets in terms of long run integration, short run dependence (return spillover) and volatility spillover are investigated. These markets are that of are Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and U...

  5. The Impact of Tax Shocks and Oil Price Volatility on Risk - A Study of North Sea Oilfield Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kretzschmar, Gavin Lee; Moles, Peter

    2006-01-01

    We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a fiscal increase on oilfield projects comprising 73% of UK reserves. Stochastic cash flow at risk models combine market volatility and tax-take at the oilfield level to extend earlier North Sea studies. We demonstrate that a 10% Secondary tax increase in a composite UKCS fiscal...

  6. Stochastic modeling of the energy supply system with uncertain fuel price – A case of emerging technologies for distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirkhani, Sh.; Saboohi, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An existing bottom-up deterministic energy system model (ESM) has limited capability in handling the uncertainties. ► Uncertainty has been modeled based on GBM. Probabilistic scenarios are generated based on Cox–Ross method. ► A multistage stochastic model has been developed where scenarios are integrated in the energy system model. ► A distributed generation system has been introduced as a case study where fuel price is considered as an uncertain parameter. - Abstract: A deterministic energy supply model with bottom-up structure has limited capability in handling the uncertainties. To enhance the applicability of such a model in an uncertain environment two main issues have been investigated in the present paper. First, a binomial lattice is generated based on the stochastic nature of the source of uncertainty. Second, an energy system model (ESM) has been reformulated as a multistage stochastic problem. The result of the application of the modified energy model encompasses all uncertain outcomes together and enables optimal timing of capacity expansion. The performance of the model has been demonstrated with the help of a case study. The case study has been formulated on the assumption that a gas fired engine competes with renewable energy technologies in an uncertain environment where the price of natural gas is volatile. The result of stochastic model has then been compared with those of a deterministic model by studying the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the value of stochastic solution (VSS). Finally the results of the sensitivity analysis have been discussed where the characteristics of uncertainty of the price of fuel are varied.

  7. A prospective analysis of Brazilian biofuel economy: Land use, infrastructure development and fuel pricing policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez Amortegui, Hector Mauricio

    Being the two largest ethanol producers in the world, transportation fuel policies in Brazil and the U.S. affect not only their domestic markets but also the global food and biofuel economy. Hence, the complex biofuel policy climate in these countries leaves the public with unclear conclusions about the prospects for supply and trade of agricultural commodities and biofuels. In this dissertation I develop a price endogenous mathematical programming model to simulate and analyze the impacts of biofuel policies in Brazil and the U.S. on land use in these countries, agricultural commodity and transportation fuel markets, trade, and global environment. The model maximizes the social surplus represented by the sum of producers' and consumers' surpluses, including selected agricultural commodity markets and fuel markets in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, China, and the Rest-of-the-World (ROW), subject to resource limitations, material balances, technical constraints, and policy restrictions. Consumers' surplus is derived from consumption of agricultural commodities and transportation fuels by vehicles that generate vehicle-kilometers-traveled (VKT). While in the other regional components aggregate supply and demand functions are assumed for the commodities included in the analysis, the agricultural supply component is regionally disaggregated for Brazil and the U.S., and the transportation fuel sector is regionally disaggregated for Brazil. The U.S. agricultural supply component includes production of fourteen major food/feed crops, including soybeans, corn and wheat, and cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. The Brazil component includes eight major annual crops, including soybeans, corn, wheat, and rice, and sugarcane as the energy crop. A particular emphasis is given to the beef-cattle production in Brazil and the potential for livestock semi-intensification in Brazilian pasture grazing systems as a prospective pathway for releasing new croplands. In the fuel sector of both

  8. Analysis of consumer response to fuel price fluctuations applying sample selection model to GPS panel data : Dynamics in individuals' car use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Dujuan; Timmermans, Harry

    2015-01-01

    The effects of fuel price increases on people's car use have been widely discussed during the last few decades in travel behavior research. It is well recognized that fuel price has significant effects on driving distance and driving efficiency. However, most of this research assumed that these

  9. Volatilidad de precios internacionales recibidos por los productores de kiwis y manzanas frescas chilenas Volatility of international prices received by chilean fresh kiwi and apple farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Lobos Andrade

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar el comportamiento de los precios medios FOB y el de los precios medios recibidos por los productores de kiwis y manzanas frescas chilenas, usando datos mensuales del periodo enero 1998 a diciembre 2005. Los valores fueron expresados en moneda de diciembre de 2005 usando como deflactor el WPI de EE.UU. Las series de precios medios recibidos por los productores se estimaron indirectamente restando a los precios medios FOB las comisiones y tarifas de exportación. Como medida de volatilidad se usó la desviación estándar de los retornos (variación de precios continuos de cada serie. Se utilizó el método del promedio geométrico móvil para estimar patrones de estacionalidad ajustada de los precios recibidos por los productores de kiwis y manzanas frescas chilenas. Se observó una mayor volatilidad de los retornos en kiwis (47,5% que en manzanas (17,3%. Los resultados mostraron: a una menor estacionalidad de precios para kiwis que manzanas; b una estabilidad de precios en marzo y desde julio a noviembre para kiwis, y desde febrero a junio y desde agosto a diciembre para manzanas; c un valor máximo en diciembre y más bajo en junio para kiwis, un valor máximo en julio y más bajo en enero para manzanas.The purpose of this study is to analyze the behavior of FOB average prices and the average prices received by fresh kiwi and apple producers, using monthly figures for the period spanning from January 1998 to December 2005. The values were expressed in December 2005 currency rates using the U.S.A. WPI (Wholesale Price Index as a deflator. The series of average prices received by the producers were estimated indirectly by subtracting the commissions and export tariffs from the FOB average prices. As a measure of volatility, the standard deviation of the continuous returns (prices variation of each series was used. The patterns of seasonally adjusted price fluctuations, received by Chilean fresh kiwi and

  10. Fossil fuel subsidy reform in the WTO : Options for constraining dual pricing in the multilateral trading system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marhold, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Fossil fuel subsidies harm the environment, add to health hazards caused by air pollution, and delay the energy transition. Scholars and practitioners have therefore been exploring ways to reform and eliminate them. This paper discusses the practice of energy dual pricing in the broader context of

  11. Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  12. Part-load performance and emissions of a spark ignition engine fueled with RON95 and RON97 gasoline: Technical viewpoint on Malaysia’s fuel price debate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamad, Taib Iskandar; How, Heoy Geok

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Recent Malaysia’s gasoline price hike affects mass perception and vehicle sales. • Effects of RON95 and RON97 on a representative engine was experimentally studied. • RON95 produced better torque, power, fuel efficiency and lower NO x . • RON97 gasoline resulted in lower BSFC and lower emissions of CO 2 , CO and HC. • Performance-emission-price cross-analysis indicated RON95 as the better option. - Abstract: Due to world crude oil price hike in the recent years, many countries have experienced increase in gasoline price. In Malaysia, where gasoline are sold in two grades; RON95 and RON97, and fuel price are regulated by the government, gasoline price have been gradually increased since 2009. Price rise for RON97 is more significant. By 2014, its per liter price is 38% more than that of RON95. This has resulted in escalated dissatisfaction among the mass. People argued they were denied from using a better fuel (RON97). In order to evaluate the claim, there is a need to investigate engine response to these two gasoline grades. The effect of gasoline RON95 and RON97 on performance and exhaust emissions in spark ignition engine was investigated on a representative engine: 1.6L, 4-cylinder Mitsubishi 4G92 engine with CR 11:1. The engine was run at constant speed between 1500 and 3500 rpm with 500 rpm increment at various part-load conditions. The original engine ECU, a hydraulic dynamometer and control, a combustion analyzer and an exhaust gas analyzer were used to determine engine performance, cylinder pressure and emissions. Results showed that RON95 produced higher engine performance for all part-load conditions within the speed range. RON95 produced on average 4.4% higher brake torque, brake power, brake mean effective pressure as compared to RON97. The difference in engine performance was more significant at higher engine speed and loads. Cylinder pressure and ROHR were evaluated and correlated with engine output. With RON95, the engine

  13. Impact of alternative fuels on emissions characteristics of a gas turbine engine - part 2: volatile and semivolatile particulate matter emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul I; Allan, James D; Lobo, Prem; Coe, Hugh; Christie, Simon; Wilson, Christopher; Hagen, Donald; Whitefield, Philip; Raper, David; Rye, Lucas

    2012-10-02

    The work characterizes the changes in volatile and semivolatile PM emissions from a gas turbine engine resulting from burning alternative fuels, specifically gas-to-liquid (GTL), coal-to-liquid (CTL), a blend of Jet A-1 and GTL, biodiesel, and diesel, to the standard Jet A-1. The data presented here, compares the mass spectral fingerprints of the different fuels as measured by the Aerodyne high resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer. There were three sample points, two at the exhaust exit plane with dilution added at different locations and another probe located 10 m downstream. For emissions measured at the downstream probe when the engine was operating at high power, all fuels produced chemically similar organic PM, dominated by C(x)H(y) fragments, suggesting the presence of long chain alkanes. The second largest contribution came from C(x)H(y)O(z) fragments, possibly from carbonyls or alcohols. For the nondiesel fuels, the highest loadings of organic PM were from the downstream probe at high power. Conversely, the diesel based fuels produced more organic material at low power from one of the exit plane probes. Differences in the composition of the PM for certain fuels were observed as the engine power decreased to idle and the measurements were made closer to the exit plane.

  14. Effect of heat storage and fuel price on energy management and economics of micro CCHP cogeneration systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Askari, I. Baniasad [University of Zabol, Zabol (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sadegh, M. Oukati [University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ameri, M. [Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In the present work, a typical combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) system comprised of boiler, flat solar collectors, absorption chiller and heat storage tank was investigated. The described system was considered to supply the given electricity, cooling and heating demand of a residential building; with heating and cooling needs of 100 and 50 kW, respectively. To find the optimum hybrid configurations with high reliability, low costs, low fuel consumption and emissions, a computer program was provided by authors in FORTRAN language. Different fuel prices were considered in the present work. The results indicated that the optimal operation strategy changes with Boiler and NGG fuel prices while it also changes with increasing the number of solar collectors, heat storage capacity and consequently decreasing total annual emission.

  15. The True Cost of Coal. How people and the planet are paying the price for the world's dirtiest fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjureby, Erika; Britten, Mareike; Cheng, Irish; Kazmierska, Marta; Mezak, Ernest; Munnik, Victor; Nandi, Jayashree; Pennington, Sara; Rochon, Emily; Schulz, Nina; Shahab, Nabiha; Vincent, Julien; Wei, Meng; Short, Rebecca

    2009-09-01

    Traditionally considered the cheapest fuel around, the market price for coal ignores its most significant impacts. These so-called 'external costs' manifests themselves as damages such as respiratory diseases, mining accidents, acid rain, smog pollution, reduced agricultural yields and climate change. The harm caused by mining and burning coal is not reflected in its price per ton or its costs for a kWh of electricity, but the world at large is nevertheless paying for it. This report seeks to answer the question: just how much are we paying?

  16. Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas W. Hertel; Jayson Beckman

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (...

  17. Normalization for Implied Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Fukasawa, Masaaki

    2010-01-01

    We study specific nonlinear transformations of the Black-Scholes implied volatility to show remarkable properties of the volatility surface. Model-free bounds on the implied volatility skew are given. Pricing formulas for the European options which are written in terms of the implied volatility are given. In particular, we prove elegant formulas for the fair strikes of the variance swap and the gamma swap.

  18. Fuel consumption: short term and long term price impacts per population type; Consommation de carburant: effets des prix a court et a long termes par type de population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This report presents assessments of the price sensitivity of household fuel consumption. After a literature review on price-elasticity assessments and the use of pseudo-panels, the investigation analyses the deciding factors of the household fuel expense and its evolution between 1985 and 2006. It proposes a short term price-elasticity assessment based on the most recent survey, and also proposes price-elasticity assessments for sub-populations, notably in terms of income level or location (rural or urban areas)

  19. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  20. High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

    2016-01-01

    of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

  1. The effects of the evolution of fuel prices and the environmental regulations on the producers of electric power based on fossil fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balasoiu, Constantin; Alecu, Sorin

    2006-01-01

    The production of electric power in the context of the concept of human society's lasting development is influenced in the recent years by a series of external factors, both circumstantial and derived from internal and international regulations. This work proposes a theoretical analysis of additional costs induced by the evolution of fuel prices as well as of the short, medium and long term environmental restrictions for the producers of lignite based electric power in Romania. To this purpose, the authors have considered as theoretical elements of analysis, a 330 MW functioning power station, working entirely on lignite GEL (70% expenses on fuel) with a production cost of 40 Euros/MWh at a 70% degree of usage capacity and 36 Euros/MWh at 100%. The paper addresses the following items: 1. The periods of analysis and the influential factors; 2. The evaluation of additional costs for the observance of EU Directive 2001/80/EC; 3. The evaluation of additional costs induced by the stipulations of the Kyoto Protocol; 4. The evaluation of additional costs induced by the evolution of the price of the fuel. In conclusion accumulating all the influences described in the chapters of this material, the impact in the rise of production costs for the described lignite based power plant is summarized by taking into account: the impact of CO 2 emissions; the impact Directive 2001/80/EC; the impact of the fuel price; the total rise. One can notice, that the biggest influence on the additional production costs comes from the impact of CO 2 emissions, in the outlook of the integration in the EU ETS, which depends on: 1) The way in which the National Allocation Plan for the allowances of CO 2 emissions is made in the power sector. The higher D utl.ref is, the stronger will be their place on the market. 2) The evolution of the price of CO 2 emissions on the EU ETS

  2. Preliminary report. Preliminary findings and views concerning the exemption of kerojet fuels from the Mandatory Petroleum Allocation and Price Regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-01-01

    Preliminary findings indicate the following: kerojet fuel is not in short supply; it will not adversely impact on the supply of other petroleum products subject to the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act; competition and market forces are adequate; and it will not result in inequitable prices for kerojet or other products. Chapter II provides background information on the use, production, and distribution of kerojet. Chapter III analyzes the historical interaction of supply, demand, and price, and explores the market structure for kerojet during 1968 to 1976, prior to and during imposition of allocation and price controls. Chapter IV examines the effect upon kerojet supply, demand, price, and market structure of exempting kerojet from controls and indicates the benefits to be derived from such exemption. In Chapter V, the potential economic impacts of exemption are evaluated. Chapter VI provides a final summary of the DOE's findings and views in support of its preliminary judgment that kerojet should be exempted from allocation and price regulations. (MCW)

  3. Semi-volatile and particulate emissions from the combustion of alternative diesel fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidhu, S; Graham, J; Striebich, R

    2001-01-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are a major anthropogenic source of air pollution and contribute to the deterioration of urban air quality. In this paper, we report results of a laboratory investigation of particle formation from four different alternative diesel fuels, namely, compressed natural gas (CNG), dimethyl ether (DME), biodiesel, and diesel, under fuel-rich conditions in the temperature range of 800-1200 degrees C at pressures of approximately 24 atm. A single pulse shock tube was used to simulate compression ignition (CI) combustion conditions. Gaseous fuels (CNG and DME) were exposed premixed in air while liquid fuels (diesel and biodiesel) were injected using a high-pressure liquid injector. The results of surface analysis using a scanning electron microscope showed that the particles formed from combustion of all four of the above-mentioned fuels had a mean diameter less than 0.1 microm. From results of gravimetric analysis and fuel injection size it was found that under the test conditions described above the relative particulate yields from CNG, DME, biodiesel, and diesel were 0.30%. 0.026%, 0.52%, and 0.51%, respectively. Chemical analysis of particles showed that DME combustion particles had the highest soluble organic fraction (SOF) at 71%, followed by biodiesel (66%), CNG (38%) and diesel (20%). This illustrates that in case of both gaseous and liquid fuels, oxygenated fuels have a higher SOF than non-oxygenated fuels.

  4. Overview of Aviation Fuel Markets for Biofuels Stakeholders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davidson, C.; Newes, E.; Schwab, A.; Vimmerstedt, L.

    2014-07-01

    This report is for biofuels stakeholders interested the U.S. aviation fuel market. Jet fuel production represents about 10% of U.S. petroleum refinery production. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP top producers, and Texas, Louisiana, and California are top producing states. Distribution of fuel primarily involves transport from the Gulf Coast to other regions. Fuel is transported via pipeline (60%), barges on inland waterways (30%), tanker truck (5%), and rail (5%). Airport fuel supply chain organization and fuel sourcing may involve oil companies, airlines, airline consortia, airport owners and operators, and airport service companies. Most fuel is used for domestic, commercial, civilian flights. Energy efficiency has substantially improved due to aircraft fleet upgrades and advanced flight logistic improvements. Jet fuel prices generally track prices of crude oil and other refined petroleum products, whose prices are more volatile than crude oil price. The single largest expense for airlines is jet fuel, so its prices and persistent price volatility impact industry finances. Airlines use various strategies to manage aviation fuel price uncertainty. The aviation industry has established goals to mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions, and initial estimates of biojet life cycle greenhouse gas emissions exist. Biojet fuels from Fischer-Tropsch and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids processes have ASTM standards. The commercial aviation industry and the U.S. Department of Defense have used aviation biofuels. Additional research is needed to assess the environmental, economic, and financial potential of biojet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate long-term upward price trends, fuel price volatility, or both.

  5. Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2003-12-18

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation from 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind

  6. Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

  7. Do changing prices portend a shift in fuel consumption, diminished greenhouse gas emissions, and lower fuel tax revenue?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The growing uncertainty about oil prices and availability has made long-range transportation planning : more challenging. Rather than relying on trend extrapolation, this study uses market mechanisms to : evaluate key long-range transportation planni...

  8. Perspectives of fuel prices in Brazil: the case of liquefied petroleum gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, Marcos Swensson

    1993-01-01

    A summary of the price evolution of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) between 1979 and 1983 in Brazil is presented. The pricing policy adopted by the government as a tool for fighting inflation has caused problems to the LPG industry. It is proposed the implementation of a market policy in order to solve these problems

  9. Impact of the flex-fuel vehicle on the prices formation and regulation in Brazil; Analise do impacto dos veiculos flex-fuel na formacao e regulacao de precos de combustiveis veiculares no Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buscarini, Rodolfo Jose Galvao [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (IE/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Economia; Cesca, Igor Gimenes [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (DEP/FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo

    2012-07-01

    The main fuels for vehicles in Brazil are the gasoline type C - which is a mixture of gasoline, resulting from the fractional distillation of oil and anhydrous ethanol - and hydrated ethanol. For this importance, has been created an institutional framework to guide and regulate the activities of the fuel sector, initially for gasoline, hydrated ethanol was contemplated by such device in 2011. Since 2003, there has been manufactured in Brazil the flex-fuel vehicles. With this, the possibility of activation of an additional factor for the regulation of vehicle fuel prices, increasing consumer power to define which of the fuels could be used as the disposition of their prices. One of the effects of growth flex-fuel sales has been increased production and investment in ethanol (especially sugar cane) as a suitable alternative to the. The hope was that the formation of fuel prices was less dependent on their cost of production and distribution and more influenced by a pressure of consumer demand. However, the increase in the sales of the flex-fuel vehicle in Brazil in the last years was not the determining factor in the price of fuels, as it was expected. The explanation of this is on external factors to the automotive industry, linked to the structures of the production chain of oil and ethanol, especially the question of the great increase in international prices of oil and hydrated ethanol in the international market in recent years. (author)

  10. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research: discount rate determination and the fossil fuel price effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-25

    In current and previous efforts, ECON has provided a preliminary economic assessment of a fusion research program. Part of this effort was the demonstration of a methodology for the estimation of reactor system costs and risk and for the treatment of program alternatives as a series of steps (tests) to buy information, thereby controlling program risk and providing a sound economic rationale for properly constructed research programs. The first phase of work also identified two areas which greatly affect the overall economic evaluation of fusion research and which warranted further study in the second phase. This led to the two tasks of the second phase reported herein: (1) discount rate determination and (2) evaluation of the effect of the expectation of the introduction of fusion power on current fossil fuel prices. In the first task, various conceptual measures of the social rate of discount were reviewed and critiqued. In the second task, a benefit area that had been called out by ECON was further examined. Long-range R and D yields short-term benefits in the form of lower nonrenewable energy resource prices because the R and D provides an expectation of future competition for the remaining reserves at the time of technology availability. ECON developed a model of optimal OPEC petroleum pricing as a function of the expectation of future competing technologies. It was shown that the existence of this expectation lowers the optimal OPEC export price and that accelerated technology R and D programs should provide further price decreases. These price reductions translate into benefits to the U.S. of at least a billion dollars.

  11. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  12. An EKC-pattern in historical perspective. Carbon dioxide emissions, technology, fuel prices and growth in Sweden 1870-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindmark, Magnus

    2002-01-01

    The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s. This article examines the inverted-U trajectory of Swedish CO 2 emissions during an extended time period beginning in 1870. The basis for the investigation is a structural time series approach that utilizes a stochastic trend as an indicator of technological and structural change, and GDP growth and changes in the price of fuel and cement price as independent variables. Finally, the development of technological and structural change with respect to CO 2 emissions is interpreted within the context of growth regimes. The result suggests that the period 1920-1960, with high, sustained growth rates was associated with less technological and structural changes relating to CO 2 emissions than periods with lower growth rates, such as the late 1800s and the post-1970 period. Furthermore, it is suggested that time-specific technological clusters may affect EKC patterns

  13. Modelling the release of volatile fission product cesium from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, W.S.; Lewis, B.J.; Cox, D.S.

    1997-01-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions. The model was based on data for the release Of 134 Cs measured during three annealing experiments (Hot Cell Experiments 1 and 2, or HCE- 1, HCE-2 and Metallurgical Cell Experiment 1, or MCE- 1) at Chalk River Laboratories. These experiments were comprised of a total of 30 separate tests. The ANN established a correlation among 14 separate input variables and predicted the cumulative fractional release for a set of 386 data points drawn from 29 tests to a normalized error, E n , of 0.104 and an average absolute error, E abs , of 0.064. Predictions for a blind validation set (test HCE2-CM6) had an E n of 0.064 and an E abs of 0.054. A methodology is presented for deploying the ANN model by providing the connection weights. Finally, the performance of an ANN model was compared to a fuel oxidation model developed by Lewis et al. and to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's CORSOR-M. (author)

  14. Enabling alternate fuels for commercial aircraft

    OpenAIRE

    Daggett, D.

    2010-01-01

    The following reports on the past four years of work to examine the feasibility, sustainability and economic viability of developing a renewable, greenhouse-gas-neutral, liquid biofuel for commercial aircraft. The sharp increase in environmental concerns, such as global warming, as well as the volatile price fluctuations of fossil fuels, has ignited a search for alternative transportation fuels. However, commercial aircraft can not use present alternative fuels that are designed for ground...

  15. Fuel prices, emission standards, and generation costs for coal vs natural gas power plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratson, Lincoln F; Haerer, Drew; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia

    2013-05-07

    Low natural gas prices and stricter, federal emission regulations are promoting a shift away from coal power plants and toward natural gas plants as the lowest-cost means of generating electricity in the United States. By estimating the cost of electricity generation (COE) for 304 coal and 358 natural gas plants, we show that the economic viability of 9% of current coal capacity is challenged by low natural gas prices, while another 56% would be challenged by the stricter emission regulations. Under the current regulations, coal plants would again become the dominant least-cost generation option should the ratio of average natural gas to coal prices (NG2CP) rise to 1.8 (it was 1.42 in February 2012). If the more stringent emission standards are enforced, however, natural gas plants would remain cost competitive with a majority of coal plants for NG2CPs up to 4.3.

  16. Modeling of geographical pricing: A game analysis of siberian fuel costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivushina, Anastasiya; Kombu, Anchy; Ryumkin, Valeriy

    2017-11-01

    In the present study, we propose a novel game-theoretic pricing model describing the interaction between producers and retailers of goods in conditions of poor transport infrastructure and sparse geographical distribution of the points of sale. The proposed model generalizes the Stackelberg leadership model for an arbitrary number of leaders and followers. We show that the model always has a Nash and Stackelberg equilibria. We also provide formulas for the equilibrium prices and volume of sales. As an example we model diesel pricing in south Siberia. Our model found no signs of a cartel. The results of this paper can be used by policymakers to inform market regulations aimed at promoting free competition and avoiding monopolies in production and retail of goods.

  17. CO_2 volatility impact on energy portfolio choice: A fully stochastic LCOE theory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucheroni, Carlo; Mari, Carlo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Stochastic LCOE theory is an extension of the levelized cost of electricity analysis. • The fully stochastic analysis include stochastic processes for fossil fuels prices and CO_2 prices. • The nuclear asset is risky through uncertainty about construction times and it is used as a hedge. • Volatility of CO_2 prices has a strong influence on CO_2 emissions reduction. - Abstract: Market based pricing of CO_2 was designed to control CO_2 emissions by means of the price level, since high CO_2 price levels discourage emissions. In this paper, it will be shown that the level of uncertainty on CO_2 market prices, i.e. the volatility of CO_2 prices itself, has a strong influence not only on generation portfolio risk management but also on CO_2 emissions abatement. A reduction of emissions can be obtained when rational power generation capacity investors decide that the capacity expansion cost risk induced jointly by CO_2 volatility and fossil fuels prices volatility can be efficiently hedged adding to otherwise fossil fuel portfolios some nuclear power as a carbon free asset. This intriguing effect will be discussed using a recently introduced economic analysis tool, called stochastic LCOE theory. The stochastic LCOE theory used here was designed to investigate diversification effects on energy portfolios. In previous papers this theory was used to study diversification effects on portfolios composed of carbon risky fossil technologies and a carbon risk-free nuclear technology in a risk-reward trade-off frame. In this paper the stochastic LCOE theory will be extended to include uncertainty about nuclear power plant construction times, i.e. considering nuclear risky as well, this being the main uncertainty source of financial risk in nuclear technology. Two measures of risk will be used, standard deviation and CVaR deviation, to derive efficient frontiers for generation portfolios. Frontier portfolios will be analyzed in their implications on emissions

  18. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  19. Predicting short term (1 week to 6 months) fuel prices using EIA data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felts, M.C.

    1992-01-01

    Events in the oil market from August 1990 to February 1991 provide an excellent case study for understanding the relationship of oil inventories, product inventories, refinery utilization rates and the prices of crude oil and products. This paper presents a basic overview of how the system works and demonstrates how anyone can predict what will happen next using EIA weekly data. The system of analysis require only that one think logically about the factors involved. The system never fails because it is based on certain conditions which do not change, such as the limited capacity of refineries, storage and transportation facilities. As one becomes familiar with the general theory behind this type of analysis, it is possible to accurately predict the behavior of gasoline and diesel prices in separate areas of the US. Because the US is the primary user of crude oil, conditions in the US refining market also significantly influence the price of crude oil. These price fluctuations can also be anticipated by watching the EIA data

  20. Pyrolysis of biomass in a semi-industrial scale reactor: Study of the fuel-nitrogen oxidation during combustion of volatiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mura, E.; Debono, O.; Villot, A.; Paviet, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, an experimental study of the NOx-fuel formation, carried out on a semi-industrial scale reactor during combustion of volatiles of the pyrolysis, is performed. Two different biomasses with different nitrogen contents such as a mixture of organic sludge and wood were tested. Results show that the temperature of pyrolysis does not obviously affect the production of NOx-fuel because of the most active precursors (NH 3 and HCN) are already released at low temperatures (400 °C). In the case of sludge mixture, the combustion conditions play the discriminating role in the production of NOx-fuel: the higher the excess air ratio the larger the production of nitrogen oxides from N-fuel. -- Highlights: • An experimental study of the pyrolysis of biomass from waste has been carried out. • The study consists in the analysis of NOx-fuel production during combustion. • The temperature of pyrolysis does not affect the production of NOx. • Only a small part of the N-fuel released in the volatile fraction is oxidized. • In the case of sewage sludge the excess air ratio affects the NOx production

  1. Canadian natural gas market dynamics and pricing : an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-10-01

    This energy market assessment (EMA) report discusses natural gas price formation and describes the current functioning of regional gas markets in Canada. This EMA also describes the factors affecting the price of natural gas in Canada and examines natural gas markets on a region-by region basis. It is shown that as part of an integrated North American market, prices of natural gas in Canada reflect supply and demand factors in both Canada and the United States. During the low oil price period of 1997/1998, high demand for natural gas outpaced the supply because of low drilling and production activity by producers. In response to the increased demand and lower levels of supply, the price of natural gas increased significantly in 1999 and 2000. This was followed by a period of market adjustment. The importance of electronic trading systems for enhancing price discovery was also discussed with reference to how spot and futures markets allow market participants to manage price volatility. It was determined that Canadians have had access to natural gas on terms and conditions equal to export customers, and at equal pricing. In early November 2000, natural gas prices in North American began to rise due to low levels of natural gas in storage. The price shocks were felt unevenly across the North American market. In response to the high prices, consumers conserved energy use, and many industrial users switched to cheaper fuels. By the spring 2001, demand continued to decrease at a time when production was high. These factors contributed to the downward pressure on gas prices. This EMA discusses the structure of market transactions and market adjustment mechanisms. It is presented in the context of the approaching 2002/2003 winter season where the tightening between natural gas supply and demand is expected to result in price volatility. 28 figs

  2. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  3. Report of the Select Committee on Petroleum Product Pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dooks, B.

    2004-01-01

    An all-party Committee of the House of Legislative Assembly of Nova Scotia was established to investigate the pricing of petroleum products such as gasoline and home heating fuel. The Committee conducted public hearings in Halifax, Yarmouth, Bridgewater, Sydney, and Truro, in order to seek input from consumers, producers, suppliers and operators. The mandate of the Select Committee on Petroleum Product Pricing was to investigate the supply and pricing of fuels, including gasoline and home heating oil and to determine whether current prices are justified and fair. This investigation included an examination of the reasons for the current level of product prices; product supply; reasons for volatility in product prices; the rationale for differences in prices across different regions of the province; factors that affect the viability of low volume outlets in the rural and urban marketplace; factors that affect the viability of independent retail operators in the province; and, any evidence of predatory pricing practices at the wholesale and retail levels of the market. The Select Committee also made recommendations related to fair and reasonable product prices at the consumer level, retail and wholesale margins, as well as other actions that may be required to correct imbalances in the distribution and sales of these products to consumers in the province. 8 appendices

  4. The effects of recent volatility in international petroleum markets on Canadian wholesale and retail gasoline prices : a report prepared for the Competition Bureau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roseman, F.

    2005-03-01

    This report addresses concern over high retail prices of gasoline and the low margins earned on gasoline sales in the Greater Toronto Area and in Ottawa, Ontario. The focus of this report was to understand reasons behind fluctuating prices, and to ascertain whether or not escalations in price were in fact anti-competitive acts that the Competition Bureau would have authority to take action over. Information requests were made by the author to all principal petroleum companies and to importers and marketers of gasoline. Detailed information on pricing was provided. Issues of supply and demand were responsible for spikes in prices. Information on petroleum refining and retailing of gasoline was reviewed, as well as information provided from dialogue and shareholder reports. Average refinery and retail margins in Ontario were discussed. It was concluded that fluctuating prices are the result of the petroleum industry's struggle to meet high demand. Any unscheduled maintenance or unanticipated increases in demand resulted in temporary shortfalls in supply, which led to higher prices. Exports were not a factor in increases in retail prices. In addition, domestic supply and the high cost of meeting environmental regulations with regard to sulphur levels in gasoline and diesel may have also played a role. It was also suggested that prices in Canada reflect overall pricing trends in the United States. tabs., figs

  5. Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2014-12-01

    The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

  6. An EKC-pattern in historical perspective. Carbon dioxide emissions, technology, fuel prices and growth in Sweden 1870-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindmark, Magnus [Department of Economic History, Umea University, SE-901 87 Umea (Sweden)

    2002-08-01

    The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s. This article examines the inverted-U trajectory of Swedish CO{sub 2} emissions during an extended time period beginning in 1870. The basis for the investigation is a structural time series approach that utilizes a stochastic trend as an indicator of technological and structural change, and GDP growth and changes in the price of fuel and cement price as independent variables. Finally, the development of technological and structural change with respect to CO{sub 2} emissions is interpreted within the context of growth regimes. The result suggests that the period 1920-1960, with high, sustained growth rates was associated with less technological and structural changes relating to CO{sub 2} emissions than periods with lower growth rates, such as the late 1800s and the post-1970 period. Furthermore, it is suggested that time-specific technological clusters may affect EKC patterns.

  7. What would be the effects of a carbon tax in Japan: an historic analysis of subsidies and fuel pricing on the iron & steel, chemical, and machinery industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Wakiyama

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines how a carbon tax could affect industrial-related carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions in Japan. Rather than forecasting the effects of a tax, the paper employs a time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA model to determine how past subsidies and fuel price changes affected investments in energy and carbon intensity in Japan’s iron & steel, chemical, and machinery industries from 1993 to 2004. The results suggest the impacts varied greatly across industries. In the iron & steel industry, subsidies and price changes produced negligible effects on investments in energy and carbon intensity. This may be because existing iron & steel technologies have long lifetimes and substantial replacement costs. It may also be because the few large companies dominating the industry were relatively immune to subsidy provisions and pricing changes. In the chemical industry, subsidies and fuel prices gave rise to investments that improved carbon and energy intensity. This may be because the industry has relatively higher operation costs that could be cut easily given financial incentives. In the machinery industry, two of three fuel price changes (oil and gas, but not subsidy provisions, yielded improvements in carbon and energy intensity. This may reflect the heterogeneity of companies and products comprising the industry. Overall, the study underscores that policymakers need to tailor the rates and revenue recycling provisions of a carbon tax to an industry’s unique features to stimulate CO2 reductions.

  8. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  9. [Evolution of salaries and the price of food and domestic fuels in the city of La Paz (1975-1985)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laure, J

    1987-03-01

    An analysis was performed on the variations of the food purchasing power of the average industry wage during the period comprised between 1975 and 1984 (increase of 7%), and of the minimum wage between November 1982 and August 1985 (decline of 73%). Development of retail prices in La Paz, for the main food groups, beverages and fuels, was analyzed over the same periods. Variations in work time, paid at average industry wage or at minimum wage, needed to acquire such foodstuffs, beverages or fuels, were also carefully studied. Similarly, development of the cost of calories and proteins was examined. Trends in accessibility of calories and proteins are described. Between 1975 and 1984 these included: a progressive decline in the number of foods that are sources of "cheap" or "very cheap" calories; the same trend was observed with regard to foods which are sources of "cheap" or "very cheap" proteins: A decline in their number and even the disappearance of any source of "very cheap" proteins, and an ever-increasing dependence on agro-industry and foreign imports (notably wheat). Finally, some proposals are made for the purpose of contributing to the establishment of food and nutrition planning. In particular, suggestion is made to automatically reevaluate the minimum wage on the basis of monetary inflation, in order to maintain at least the food purchasing power of the minimum wage. Maintaining this purchasing power greatly determines the nutritional status of the wage-earning population which purchases the most essential foodstuffs.

  10. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  11. Spillovers between Food and Energy Prices and Structural Breaks

    OpenAIRE

    Alanoud Al-Maadid; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Fabio Spagnolo; Nicola Spagnolo

    2015-01-01

    This paper estimates a bivariate VAR-GARCH(1,1) model to examine linkages between food and energy prices. The adopted framework is suitable to analyse both mean and volatility spillovers, and also allows for possible parameter shifts resulting from four recent events, namely: 1) the 2006 food crisis, 2) the Brent oil bubble, 3) the introduction of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policy, and 4) the 2008 global financial crisis. The empirical findings suggest that there are significant linkag...

  12. Three Papers on the Political Consequences of Oil Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo Tenorio, Adriana

    Given the importance of oil in any country's energy needs, it should not be surprising that the increasing volatility of oil prices in the past decades is a challenge for most political systems. While the political and economic impact of natural resource wealth in general is strongly debated, the political consequences of these sudden shifts have gone understudied. This dissertation examines the relationship between politics and oil from a new perspective. First, I implement a Bayesian meta-regression model to assess the state of research on the natural resource curse, finding that the measurement of resources is one of the most important sources of the debate. In the second part of the dissertation, I turn to discussing the impact of fuel prices on politics. I argue that at the domestic level, rational leaders feel pressured to compensate for oil price shocks because they are held accountable for these shifts by their constituents. This hypothesis is tested using Bayesian multilevel models that allow state and time-varying information to be matched to individual survey responses for a sample of voters in nine American states between 2008 and 2009. This chapter shows that fuel prices are related to appraisals of the economy only during electoral periods. The results also provide evidence that the degree to which voters use fuel prices to evaluate the president's performance varies greatly across party lines. At the global level, I posit in the final chapter that cross-country cooperation in other issue areas is pursued to mitigate the economic impact of oil price volatility. By developing a Bayesian bivariate Poisson change-point model and implementing it using MCMC methods, I find that fuel price shifts are related to increased trade networks, especially for oil-exporting countries.

  13. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  14. Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh

    2011-01-01

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

  15. In-situ studies on volatile jet exhaust particle emissions - impacts of fuel sulfur content and environmental conditions on nuclei-mode aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schroeder, F.; Baumann, R.; Petzold, A.; Busen, R.; Schulte, P.; Fiebig, M. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Brock, C.A. [Denver Univ., CO (United States). Dept. of Engineering

    2000-02-01

    In-situ measurements of ultrafine aerosol particle emissions were performed at cruise altitudes behind the DLR ATTAS research jet (RR M45H M501 engines) and a B737-300 aircraft (CFM56-3B1 engines). Measurements were made 0.15-20 seconds after emission as the source aircraft burned fuel with sulfur contents (FSC) of 2.6, 56 or 118 mg kg{sup -1}. Particle size distributions of from 3 to 60 nm diameter were determined using CN-counters with varying lower size detection limits. Volatile particle concentrations in the aircraft plumes strongly increased as diameter decreased toward the sizes of large molecular clusters, illustrating that apparent particle emissions are extremely sensitive to the smallest particle size detectable by the instrument used. Environmental conditions and plume age alone could influence the number of detected ultrafine (volatile) aerosols within an order of magnitude, as well. The observed volatile particle emissions decreased nonlinearly as FSC decreased to 60 mg kg{sup -1}, reaching minimum values of about 2 x 10{sup 17} kg{sup -1} and 2 x 10{sup 16} kg{sup -1} for particles >3 nm and >5 nm, respectively. Volatile particle emissions did not change significantly as FSCs were further reduced below 60 mg kg{sup -1}. Volatile particle emissions did not differ significantly between the two studied engine types. In contrast, soot particle emissions from the modern CFM56-3B1 engines were 4-5 times less (4 x 10{sup 14} kg{sup -1}) than from the older RR M45H M501 engines (1.8 x 10{sup 15} kg{sup -1}). Contrail processing has been identified as an efficient sink/quenching parameter for ultrafine particles and reduces the remaining interstitial aerosol by factors 2-10 depending on particle size.

  16. News impact for Turkish food prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meltem Chadwick

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Asymmetric volatility is a widely encountered concept particularly in financial series. It refers to the case that “bad news” generates more volatility than “good news” of equal magnitude. In an inflationary environment “bad news” is disclosed as increasing inflation that is expected to generate higher volatility. The present article examines whether unexpected price changes affect the volatility of prices asymmetrically for 90 retail food items of the Turkish consumer price index. These 90 food items have a weight of approximately 20 percent in headline consumer price index (CPI. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH model to extract asymmetric volatility, using monthly data between January 2003 and January 2017. Our results reveal that volatility of food prices respond asymmetrically to unexpected price shocks for 62 percent of the retail food items.

  17. The impact of the fuel chemical composition on volatile organic compounds emitted by an in-service aircraft gas turbine engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setyan, A.; Kuo, Y. Y.; Brem, B.; Durdina, L.; Gerecke, A. C.; Heeb, N. V.; Haag, R.; Wang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Aircraft emissions received increased attention recently because of the steady growth of aviation transport in the last decades. Aircraft engines substantially contribute to emissions of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in the upper and lower troposphere. Among all the pollutants emitted by aircrafts, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are particularly important because they are mainly emitted at ground level, posing a serious health risk for people living or working near airports. A series of measurements was performed at the aircraft engine testing facility of SR Technics (Zürich airport, Switzerland). Exhausts from an in-service turbofan engine were sampled at the engine exit plane by a multi-point sampling probe. A wide range of instruments was connected to the common sampling line to determine physico-chemical characteristics of non-volatile particulate matter and gaseous pollutants. Conventional Jet A-1 fuel was used as the base fuel, and measurements were performed with the base fuel doped with two different mixtures of aromatic compounds (Solvesso 150 and naphthalene-depleted Solvesso 150) and an alternative fuel (hydro-processed esters and fatty acids [HEFA] jet fuel). During this presentation, we will show results obtained for VOCs. These compounds were sampled with 3 different adsorbing cartridges, and analyzed by thermal desorption gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (TD-GC/MS, for Tenax TA and Carboxen 569) and by ultra-performance liquid chromatography/ mass spectrometry (UPLC/MS, for DNPH). The total VOC concentration was also measured with a flame ionization detector (FID). In addition, fuel samples were also analyzed by GC/MS, and their chemical compositions were compared to the VOCs emitted via engine exhaust. Total VOCs concentrations were highest at ground idle (>200 ppm C at 4-7% thrust), and substantially lower at high thrust (engine were mainly constituted of alkanes, oxygenated compounds, and aromatics. More than 50 % of the

  18. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  19. Proposed Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Federal Volatility Control Program in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley-Ft. Collins-Loveland, Colorado, 1997 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    This notice proposes establishing an applicable standard of 7.8 pounds (psi) Reid vapor pressure under the federal volatility control program, in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley-Ft. Collins-Loveland, Colorado, 1997 8-hour ozone nonattainment area.

  20. Renewable energy as a natural gas price hedge: the case of wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, David

    2005-01-01

    Electric utilities use natural gas to fuel many of their power plants, especially those plants which provide electricity at peak and intermediate hours. Natural gas prices are highly volatile and have shown a general upward trend. Wind energy can provide a cost-effective hedge against natural gas price volatility or price increases. This conclusion is based on analysis of the costs of marginal conventional generation given the historical probability distribution of natural gas prices, the cost of wind energy, wind integration costs, transmission costs for wind energy, the capacity value of wind, and environmental benefits of wind energy for a hypothetical utility in the Southwestern United States. The efficacy of using wind energy as a hedge at a particular utility will depend on site specific conditions

  1. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

    2008-08-29

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  2. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-08-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  3. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-01-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

  4. Uncertainty of Volatility Estimates from Heston Greeks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Pfante

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a widely recognized measure of market risk. As volatility is not observed it has to be estimated from market prices, i.e., as the implied volatility from option prices. The volatility index VIX making volatility a tradeable asset in its own right is computed from near- and next-term put and call options on the S&P 500 with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration and non-vanishing bid. In the present paper we quantify the information content of the constituents of the VIX about the volatility of the S&P 500 in terms of the Fisher information matrix. Assuming that observed option prices are centered on the theoretical price provided by Heston's model perturbed by additive Gaussian noise we relate their Fisher information matrix to the Greeks in the Heston model. We find that the prices of options contained in the VIX basket allow for reliable estimates of the volatility of the S&P 500 with negligible uncertainty as long as volatility is large enough. Interestingly, if volatility drops below a critical value of roughly 3%, inferences from option prices become imprecise because Vega, the derivative of a European option w.r.t. volatility, and thereby the Fisher information nearly vanishes.

  5. Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

    2012-12-01

    In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline

  6. Distributions of carbon pricing on extraction, combustion and consumption of fossil fuels in the global supply-chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karstensen, Jonas; Peters, Glen

    2018-01-01

    Pricing carbon is one of the most important tools to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change. Already, about 40 nations have implemented explicit or implicit carbon prices, and a carbon price was explicitly stated as a mitigation strategy by many nations in their emission pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement. The coverage of carbon prices varies significantly between nations though, often only covering a subset of sectors in the economy. We investigate the propagation of carbon prices along the global supply-chain when the carbon price is applied at the point where carbon is removed from the ground (extraction), is combusted (production), or where goods and services are consumed (consumption). We consider both the regional and sectoral effects, and compare the carbon price income and costs relative to economic output. We find that implementation using different accounting systems makes a significant difference to revenues and increased expenditure, and that domestic and global trade plays a significant role in spreading the carbon price between sectors and countries. A few single sectors experience the largest relative price increases (especially electricity and transport), but most of the carbon price is ultimately paid by households for goods and services due to the large expenditure and indirect supply chain impacts. We finally show that a global carbon price will generate a larger share of revenue relative to GDP in non-OECD nations than OECD nations, independent on the point of implementation.

  7. The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

    OpenAIRE

    Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

  8. Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Wel, Michel; Ozturk, Sait R.; Dijk, Dick van

    The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable...

  9. Precificação de Opções com Volatilidade EstocásticaOption pricing with stochastic volatilityPrecificación de Opciones con Volatilidad Estocástica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARTIN, Diógenes Manoel Leiva

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available RESUMOEntre as suposições subjacentes do modelo Black-Scholes-Merton, as maiores polarizações empíricas são causadas por aquelas com uma volatilidade fixa do recurso subjacente. Este artigo discute as aproximações principais deste modelo.ABSTRACTAmong the underlying assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, the largest empirical biases are caused by those with a fixed volatility of the underlying asset. This article discusses the main approaches of this issue.RESUMENEntre las suposiciones subyacentes al modelo Black-Scholes-Merton, las mayores polarizaciones empíricas las provocan las que poseen una volatilidad fija del recurso adyacente.Este artículo trata de las principales aproximaciones a este modelo.

  10. CORN PRODUCERS´ RESPONSE TO THE 2001 NITROGEN FERTILIZER PRICE INCREASE

    OpenAIRE

    Daberkow, Stan G.; McBride, William D.

    2004-01-01

    During the past few years, nitrogen fertilizer prices and price volatility have increased. Producers of nitrogen-intensive crops, such as corn, who are faced with increased nitrogen prices or price volatility, can adopt either cost-reducing or price variability-reducing strategies. Using a behavioral model in the logit specification and data from a 2001 national survey of U.S. corn producers, we found that the probability of forward pricing nitrogen fertilizer and the probability of using nit...

  11. A Possible Solution for the U.S. Navy’s Addiction to Petroleum: A Business Case Analysis for Transitioning the U.S. Navy From Petroleum to Synthetic Fuel Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    was calculated using 60 sequential ( ) ’Y t s . 9 As shown by the shaded boxes in Table 2, the price of crude oil was more volatile than the price of...producing liquid fuels alone. [Bajura] Modern plant designs often include a cogeneration lineup that is designed to resell excess electricity to the

  12. The contribution of the DOE's R ampersand D budget in natural gas to energy price security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutherland, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    The energy price volatility model suggests that some of the proposed natural gas programs can contribute to energy price stability. The sector most vulnerable to fuel price variations is, of course, the transportation sector. The most effective strategy to achieve energy pace stability is to reduce petroleum consumption in this sector. The natural gas vehicle program is therefore recommended as potentially important and worthy of further consideration. At this point, distinguishing the merits of various subprograms is not feasible. This result farther supports the conclusion that the DOE's energy R ampersand D portfolio is not efficiently balanced and an increase in oil and gas research should be a high priority. The DOE has responded favorably and has significantly increased its proposed research with the explicit objective of displacing oil in the transportation sector. The enhanced research and development program for energy security, in the NES, proposes major funding, increases in this area. To recommend the further increases proposed by the industry, a careful analysis of incremental benefits and costs is required. The proposed natural as supply program is intended to enhance the future supply of natural gas. As explained above, enhanced gas supplies can reduce the volatility of gas prices and severe the link between gas and oil prices. The gas supply program is recommended as a potentially important strategy to ensure energy price stability. The importance of this point merits restatement. Oil price volatility affects directly the transportation and industrial sectors. The residential, commercial and electric utility sectors are not highly oil dependent. However, oil prices have affected gas prices and gas is used extensively the residential, commercial, industrial and electric utility sectors. Energy price stability is enhanced in these sectors by severing, the link, between oil and gas prices

  13. Transport of volatile fission products in the fuel-to-sheath gap of defective fuel elements during normal and reactor accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, B.J.; Bonin, H.W.

    1995-01-01

    An analytical treatment has been used to model the vapour transport of radioactive fission products released into the fuel-to-sheath gap of defective nuclear fuel elements. The model accounts for both diffusive and bulk-convective transport. Convective transport becomes important as a result of a significant release of gaseous fission products into the gap during a high-temperature reactor accident. However, during normal reactor operation, diffusion is shown to be the dominant process of transport. The model is based on an analysis of several in-reactor tests with operating defective fuel elements, and high-temperature annealing experiments with irradiated fuel specimens. ((orig.))

  14. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  15. Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Qiang; Geng, Jiang-Bo; Fan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of global economic activity and international crude oil prices on natural gas import prices in three major natural gas markets using the panel cointegration model. It also investigates the shock impacts of the volatility and the increase and decrease of oil prices on regional natural gas import prices. The results show that both global economic activity and international crude oil prices have significant long-term positive effects on regional natural gas import prices. The volatility of international crude oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas import prices. The shock impact is weak in North America, lags in Europe and is most significant in Asia, which is mainly determined by different regional policies for price formation. In addition, the response of natural gas import prices to increases and decreases in international crude oil prices shows an asymmetrical mechanism, of which the decrease impact is relatively stronger. - Highlights: • Impacts of world economy and oil prices on regional natural gas prices are analysed • North American natural gas prices are mainly affected by world economy • Asian and European natural gas prices are mainly affected by oil prices • The volatility of oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas prices • The response of natural gas import prices to oil prices up and down shows asymmetry

  16. Target Price Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander G. Kerl

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts’ reports. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown 12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain this accuracy. Target price accuracy is negatively related to analyst-specific optimism and stock-specific risk (measured by volatility and price-to-book ratio. However, target price accuracy is positively related to the level of detail of each report, company size and the reputation of the investment bank. The potential conflicts of interests between an analyst and a covered company do not bias forecast accuracy.

  17. Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

  18. Do daily retail gasoline prices adjust asymmetrically?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettendorf, L.; van der Geest, S. A.; Kuper, G. H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004, taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out that the volatility

  19. Determination of Vaporization Properties and Volatile Hazardous Components Relevant to Kukersite Oil Shale Derived Fuel Oil Handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada TRAUMANN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate vaporization properties of shale fuel oil in relation to inhalation exposure. The shale fuel oil was obtained from kukersite oil shale. The shale oil and its light fraction (5 % of the total fuel oil were characterized by vapor pressure curve, molecular weight distribution, elemental composition and functional groups based on FTIR spectra. The rate of vaporization from the total fuel oil at different temperatures was monitored as a function of time using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA. It is shown that despite its relatively low vapor pressure at room temperature a remarkable amount of oil vaporizes influencing air quality significantly. From the TGA data the changes in the vapor pressure during vaporization process were estimated. Although the shale fuel oil has a strong, unpleasant smell, the main hazards to workplace air quality depend on the vaporization rate of different toxic compounds, such as benzene, toluene, xylene or phenolic compounds. The presence of these hazardous substances in the vapor phase of shale fuel oil was monitored using headspace analysis coupled with selective ion monitoring (SIM and confirmed by the NIST Mass Spectral library and retention times of standards. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.20.3.4549

  20. 国际能源价格波动与中国碳税政策的协同模拟分析%Collaborative simulation analysis on international energy price volatility and China's carbon tax policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟帅; 沈镭; 赵建安; 孙艳芝; 武娜

    2017-01-01

    国际能源价格波动和碳税政策都会对能源成本产生直接作用,从而对能源安全状况和减排效果产生影响.现有研究往往基于外部条件不变的假设分别探讨两者的影响效应.然而,国际能源价格波动在现实中已成为常态,实施碳税可能无法实现预期减排效果,也可能影响能源安全.因此,评估国际能源价格波动与碳税政策的交互影响效应,有助于协调能源安全与碳减排的冲突问题.本研究构建了中国“产业-能源-碳排放”CGE模型,探讨了国际化石能源价格波动和碳税政策对实现2030年碳减排60%~65%目标的交互影响效应,研究结果显示:无论国际化石能源价格上升还是下降,碳税政策都能实现减排60%以上的目标;而当国际化石能源价格下降,碳税政策无法缓解能源对外依存度的提高,能源安全存在隐患.%Energy security and carbon emission mitigation play critical roles in guaranteeing sustainable development.International energy price volatility (IEPV)and carbon tax policy (CTP) have direct impacts on energy costs,and then create effects on energy security and carbon reduction.Previous studies have mostly focused on IEPV or CTP,respectively,based on the assumption that external conditions are invariable.In fact,however,IEPV has become a normal state,which may cause the result that CTP may not achieve emission reduction goals.Therefore,evaluating interactive effects between IEPV and CTP contributes insights to deal with conflict between energy security and carbon reduction.Here,we constructed a China CGE model with industry-energy-carbon emission modules applied to explore interactive effects on the 2030 target of carbon reduction 60%~65% (called the 2030 target),which were created by international fossil energy price volatility and CTP.We found that under the condition without any changes it was predicted that China's energy security would be improved,while carbon

  1. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of ... objectives in the area of price stability and economic growth. Volatile real ..... Exchange rate shocks and instability is a common feature of emerging.

  2. Behavior of households equipped with fuel oil heating facing the petroleum price sudden increase in 2000; Le comportement des menages equipes de chauffage au fioul face a la brutale augmentation du prix du petrole en 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This paper analyses the public attitudes facing the sudden increase of the fuel oil increase during the year 2000. This increase has got a great impact on the households equipped with fuel oil heating. The households adapted their strategy to obtain the best prices, to defer the deliveries or to reduce energy consumption by a improve of the heating performances. (A.L.B.)

  3. New empirical generalizations on the determinants of price elasticity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijmolt, THA; Van Heerde, HJ; Pieters, RGM

    The importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities. In an influential meta-analytical study, Tellis (1988) summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986. However, empirical generalizations on price elasticity require

  4. The impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report describes the results of six scenarios considering the impact of energy price shocks on the UK economy. The six scenarios considered are: UK aggregate energy price scenario; pan-Europe aggregate energy price; global aggregate energy price; UK temporary gas price; UK permanent gas price; crude (Brent) oil price. As expected, shocks to aggregate energy prices cause the largest macroeconomic and energy demand effects (in terms of growth rate volatility). Shocks to gas prices produce a greater growth volatility for macroeconomic and energy demand than shocks to oil prices. In general terms, shocks specific to the UK market tend to produce more growth rate volatility than wider ranging price shocks (global or pan-European). All of the price shocks considered have a recursive effect on the main indicators, which tend to stabilise around the baseline level in the long run. The report summarises the results obtained in the different scenarios

  5. Regime jumps in electricity prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractMany countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe

  6. An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)

  7. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  8. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

    2009-01-15

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  9. Methanol supply issues for alternative fuels demonstration programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teague, J.M.; Koyama, K.K.

    1995-01-01

    This paper surveys issues affecting the supply of fuel-grade methanol for the California Energy Commission's alternative fuels demonstration programs and operations by other public agencies such as transit and school districts. Establishing stable and reasonably priced sources of methanol (in particular) and of alternative fuels generally is essential to their demonstration and commercialization. Development both of vehicle technologies and of fuel supply and distribution are complementary and must proceed in parallel. However, the sequence of scaling up supply and distribution is not necessarily smooth; achievement of volume thresholds in demand and through-put of alternative fuels are marked by different kinds of challenges. Four basic conditions should be met in establishing a fuel supply: (1) it must be price competitive with petroleum-based fuels, at least when accounting for environmental and performance benefits; (2) bulk supply must meet volumes required at each phase; necessitating resilience among suppliers and a means of designating priority for high value users; (3) distribution systems must be reliable, comporting with end users' operational schedules; (4) volatility in prices to the end user for the fuel must be minimal. Current and projected fuel volumes appear to be insufficient to induce necessary economies of scale in production and distribution for fuel use. Despite their benefits, existing programs will suffer absent measures to secure economical fuel supplies. One solution is to develop sources that are dedicated to fuel markets and located within the end-use region

  10. Investigation of in-cabin volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in taxis; influence of vehicle's age, model, fuel, and refueling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiari, Reza; Hadei, Mostafa; Hopke, Philip K; Shahsavani, Abbas; Rastkari, Noushin; Kermani, Majid; Yarahmadi, Maryam; Ghaderpoori, Afshin

    2018-06-01

    The air pollutant species and concentrations in taxis' cabins can present significant health impacts on health. This study measured the concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene (BTEX), formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde in the cabins of four different taxi models. The effects of taxi's age, fuel type, and refueling were investigated. Four taxi models in 3 age groups were fueled with 3 different fuels (gas, compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)), and the concentrations of 6 air pollutants were measured in the taxi cabins before and after refueling. BTEX, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde sampling were actively sampled using NIOSH methods 1501, 2541, and 2538, respectively. The average BTEX concentrations for all taxi models were below guideline values. The average concentrations (±SD) of formaldehyde in Model 1 to Model 4 taxis were 889 (±356), 806 (±323), 1144 (±240), and 934 (±167) ppbv, respectively. Acetaldehyde average concentrations (±SD) in Model 1 to Model 4 taxis were 410 (±223), 441 (±241), 443 (±210), and 482 (±91) ppbv, respectively. Refueling increased the in-vehicle concentrations of pollutants primarily the CNG and LPG fuels. BTEX concentrations in all taxi models were significantly higher for gasoline. Taxi age inversely affected formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. In conclusion, it seems that refueling process and substitution of gasoline with CNG and LPG can be considered as solutions to improve in-vehicle air concentrations for taxis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Managing industrial price risk: a balancing act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muse, J-F.

    2000-01-01

    The challenge of managing industrial price risk is assessed by a senior executive of Cargill, a diversified industrial conglomerate, involved in steel manufacturing and recycling, oilseeds, cocoa, beef, pork, and poultry processing, fertilizer and fruit juice production, in addition to trading and financial risk management. Energy is a key component in many of Cargill's businesses, hence the company has good reason to be concerned about price volatility. The effects of energy risk management on the company's shareholders are demonstrated by an analysis of month-to-month price fluctuations over the Nov 1999 to Oct 2000 period, showing the monthly value of risk at the 95 per cent confidence level as $4,832,195. The effects of alternatives for an end-user such as passing on cost to customers, improving energy efficiency. fuel switching and production curtailment, are explored and limitations and problems with each of the approaches are discussed. The best options for industrial end-users of natural gas are suggested to be a proactive risk management program in the short-term and asset diversification, fuel switching, and geographic relocation of production facilities in the long-term

  12. The influence of the switch from fossil fuels to solar and wind energy on the electricity prices in Germany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Dorsman (Andre); A. Khoshrou (Abdolrahman); E.J. Pauwels (Eric)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractGermany is actively pursuing a switch from fossil fuel to renewables, the so-called Energiewende (energy transition). Due to the fact that the supply of wind and solar energy is less predictable than the supply of fossil fuel, stabilizing the grid has become more challenging. On sunny

  13. Bulk Fuel Pricing: DOD Needs to Reevaluate Its Approach to Better Manage the Effect of Market Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    depression in the price of WTI was a result of rapid growth in U.S. and Canadian oil production, which overwhelmed the transportation infrastructure...additional information. Connect with GAO on Facebook, Flickr, Twitter, and YouTube . Subscribe to our RSS Feeds or E-mail Updates. Listen to our

  14. Projections of the energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankauskas, V.

    1996-01-01

    This article deals with the trends of the main fuel prices development in the Western European markets. There are two possible price development scenarios presented in the article. Transportation costs of various internationally traded fuels from various sources (Russia, Western Europe) are estimated and their most feasible values are considered. Fuel prices for the final big consumers are calculated adding the domestic distribution costs. Trends of heat and electricity price development in Lithuania during the period of 1991-1995 are analyzed. Forecasts of the electricity generation and supply costs are calculated according to various scenarios. Electricity prices will be lowest in the case of the further operation of the Ignalina NPP and low fuel prices in international markets. (author). 8 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs

  15. Estimation of emissions of volatile organic compounds in the fuel marketing terminal Recope, Alto de Ochomogo, Cartago, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Vanessa Quesada Carvajal

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: This study presents the estimation of the evaporative emissions generated in the fuel distribution plant in El Alto de Ochomogo, Cartago, Costa Rica and the selection of the adequate recovery system to reduce the emission of these gases into the atmosphere, thus decreasing the adverse effects caused by these compounds in the environment and the health of nearby populations. Method: The fugitive emission rate estimated in the tanker vehicle loading process, using load loss emission factors, and fuel storage, through specialized software. Subsequently, we proceeded to make the selection of the appropriate treatment system, considering the flow capacity of the gaseous current that each technology can treat. Results: It was determined that the generation of VOCs is greater in the loading area than in the storage tanks, since they correspond to 95% and 5% respectively. Due to this, the proposal of the vapor treatment system focuses on the fuel-loading zone, selecting the cryogenic condensation as non-destructive recovery treatment. Conclusions: The estimation of the fugitive emission rate allowed to have a base to establish a strategy for the reduction of these emissions in favor of the health of the workers who are constantly exposed to them. To reduce direct emissions to the atmosphere during the loading of tanks. Necessary changes must be made to adapt them to an airtight system. That allows sending gasoline vapors that generated by the presence of residual product on the walls of trucks and due to the turbulence that arises during the loading of the new product, to the vapor recovery unit.

  16. Forecasting volatility for options valuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belaifa, M.; Morimune, K.

    2006-01-01

    The petroleum sector plays a neuralgic role in the basement of world economies, and market actors (producers, intermediates, as well as consumers) are continuously subjected to the dynamics of unstable oil market. Huge amounts are being invested along the production chain to make one barrel of crude oil available to the end user. Adding to that are the effect of geopolitical dynamics as well as geological risks as expressed in terms of low chances of successful discoveries. In addition, fiscal regimes and regulations, technology and environmental concerns are also among some of the major factors that contribute to the substantial risk in the oil industry and render the market structure vulnerable to crises. The management of these vulnerabilities require modern tools to reduce risk to a certain level, which unfortunately is a non-zero value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to provide a modern technique to capture the oil price stochastic volatility that can be implemented to value the exposure of an investor, a company, a corporate or a Government. The paper first analyses the regional dependence on oil prices, through a historical perspective and then looks at the evolution of pricing environment since the large price jumps of the 1970s. The main causes of oil prices volatility are treated in the third part of the paper. The rest of the article deals with volatility models and forecasts used in risk management, with an implication for pricing derivatives. (author)

  17. Essays on Economic Volatility and Financial Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays in macroeconomics. The first one essay discusses the reasons of Chinese huge foreign reserves holdings. It contributes to the literature of sudden stops, precautionary saving and foreign assets holdings. In the second essay, I study the price volatility of commodities and manufactured goods. I measure the price volatility of each individual goods but not on the aggregated level and therefore the results complete the related study. The third essay exp...

  18. Virtual volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, A. Christian; Prange, Richard E.

    2007-03-01

    We introduce the concept of virtual volatility. This simple but new measure shows how to quantify the uncertainty in the forecast of the drift component of a random walk. The virtual volatility also is a useful tool in understanding the stochastic process for a given portfolio. In particular, and as an example, we were able to identify mean reversion effect in our portfolio. Finally, we briefly discuss the potential practical effect of the virtual volatility on an investor asset allocation strategy.

  19. Biomass burning emissions and potential air quality impacts of volatile organic compounds and other trace gases from fuels common in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilman, J. B.; Lerner, B. M.; Kuster, W. C.; Goldan, P. D.; Warneke, C.; Veres, P. R.; Roberts, J. M.; de Gouw, J. A.; Burling, I. R.; Yokelson, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    A comprehensive suite of instruments was used to quantify the emissions of over 200 organic gases, including methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and 9 inorganic gases from 56 laboratory burns of 18 different biomass fuel types common in the southeastern, southwestern, or northern US. A gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) instrument provided extensive chemical detail of discrete air samples collected during a laboratory burn and was complemented by real-time measurements of organic and inorganic species via an open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (OP-FTIR) instrument and three different chemical ionization-mass spectrometers. These measurements were conducted in February 2009 at the US Department of Agriculture's Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana and were used as the basis for a number of emission factors reported by Yokelson et al. (2013). The relative magnitude and composition of the gases emitted varied by individual fuel type and, more broadly, by the three geographic fuel regions being simulated. Discrete emission ratios relative to carbon monoxide (CO) were used to characterize the composition of gases emitted by mass; reactivity with the hydroxyl radical, OH; and potential secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors for the 3 different US fuel regions presented here. VOCs contributed less than 0.78 % ± 0.12 % of emissions by mole and less than 0.95 % × 0.07 % of emissions by mass (on average) due to the predominance of CO2, CO, CH4, and NOx emissions; however, VOCs contributed 70-90 (±16) % to OH reactivity and were the only measured gas-phase source of SOA precursors from combustion of biomass. Over 82 % of the VOC emissions by mole were unsaturated compounds including highly reactive alkenes and aromatics and photolabile oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) such as formaldehyde. OVOCs contributed 57-68 % of the VOC mass emitted, 41-54 % of VOC-OH reactivity, and aromatic-OVOCs such as benzenediols, phenols, and benzaldehyde

  20. Biomass burning emissions and potential air quality impacts of volatile organic compounds and other trace gases from temperate fuels common in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilman, J. B.; Lerner, B. M.; Kuster, W. C.; Goldan, P. D.; Warneke, C.; Veres, P. R.; Roberts, J. M.; de Gouw, J. A.; Burling, I. R.; Yokelson, R. J.

    2015-08-01

    A comprehensive suite of instruments was used to quantify the emissions of over 200 organic gases, including methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and 9 inorganic gases from 56 laboratory burns of 18 different biomass fuel types common in the southeastern, southwestern, or northern United States. A gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer (GC-MS) provided extensive chemical detail of discrete air samples collected during a laboratory burn and was complemented by real-time measurements of organic and inorganic species via an open-path Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (OP-FTIR) and 3 different chemical ionization-mass spectrometers. These measurements were conducted in February 2009 at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Fire Sciences Laboratory in Missoula, Montana. The relative magnitude and composition of the gases emitted varied by individual fuel type and, more broadly, by the 3 geographic fuel regions being simulated. Emission ratios relative to carbon monoxide (CO) were used to characterize the composition of gases emitted by mass; reactivity with the hydroxyl radical, OH; and potential secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors for the 3 different US fuel regions presented here. VOCs contributed less than 0.78 ± 0.12 % of emissions by mole and less than 0.95 ± 0.07 % of emissions by mass (on average) due to the predominance of CO2, CO, CH4, and NOx emissions; however, VOCs contributed 70-90 (±16) % to OH reactivity and were the only measured gas-phase source of SOA precursors from combustion of biomass. Over 82 % of the VOC emissions by mole were unsaturated compounds including highly reactive alkenes and aromatics and photolabile oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) such as formaldehyde. OVOCs contributed 57-68 % of the VOC mass emitted, 42-57 % of VOC-OH reactivity, and aromatic-OVOCs such as benzenediols, phenols, and benzaldehyde were the dominant potential SOA precursors. In addition, ambient air measurements of emissions from the Fourmile Canyon Fire

  1. Iodine volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beahm, E.C.; Shockley, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The ultimate aim of this program is to couple experimental aqueous iodine volatilities to a fission product release model. Iodine partition coefficients, for inorganic iodine, have been measured during hydrolysis and radiolysis. The hydrolysis experiments have illustrated the importance of reaction time on iodine volatility. However, radiolysis effects can override hydrolysis in determining iodine volatility. In addition, silver metal in radiolysis samples can react to form silver iodide accompanied by a decrease in iodine volatility. Experimental data are now being coupled to an iodine transport and release model that was developed in the Federal Republic of Germany

  2. Some recent developments in stochastic volatility modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Nicolato, Elisa; Shephard, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews and puts in context some of our recent work on stochastic volatility (SV) modelling for financial economics. Here our main focus is on: (i) the relationship between subordination and SV, (ii) OU based volatility models, (iii) exact option pricing, (iv) realized power variation...

  3. Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opschoor, A.; Taylor, N.; van der Wel, M.; van Dijk, D.

    2014-01-01

    We study the relationship between order flow and volatility. To this end we develop a comprehensive framework that simultaneously controls for the effects of macro announcements and order flow on prices and the effect of macro announcements on volatility. Using high-frequency 30-year U.S. Treasury

  4. Essays on Derivatives Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    . With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

  5. Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šoškić Dejan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.

  6. Oil price stability and free markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamani, A.Z.

    1992-01-01

    The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

  7. A multiscale extension of the Margrabe formula under stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong-Hoon; Park, Chang-Rae

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Fast-mean-reverting stochastic volatility model is chosen to extend the classical Margrabe formula. • The resultant formula is explicitly given by the greeks of Margrabe price itself. • We show how the stochastic volatility corrects the Margrabe price behavior. - Abstract: The pricing of financial derivatives based on stochastic volatility models has been a popular subject in computational finance. Although exact or approximate closed form formulas of the prices of many options under stochastic volatility have been obtained so that the option prices can be easily computed, such formulas for exchange options leave much to be desired. In this paper, we consider two different risky assets with two different scales of mean-reversion rate of volatility and use asymptotic analysis to extend the classical Margrabe formula, which corresponds to a geometric Brownian motion model, and obtain a pricing formula under a stochastic volatility. The resultant formula can be computed easily, simply by taking derivatives of the Margrabe price itself. Based on the formula, we show how the stochastic volatility corrects the Margrabe price behavior depending on the moneyness and the correlation coefficient between the two asset prices.

  8. House price risk and the hedging benefits of home Ownership

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dröes, M.I.; Hassink, W.H.J.

    2013-01-01

    Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in

  9. Near-term oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

  10. Michigan residential No. 2 fuel oil and propane price survey for the 1990/91 heating season

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys

  11. Energy price risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.W.G.

    1998-01-01

    While long term, fixed price contracts for fuel procurement and export of excess power may lock in the economics of a CHP plant, these do not necessarily give the best pricing opportunities that may exist during the life of those contracts. A more prudent approach may be to vary the length of the contracts and markets are now developing in gas and electricity to assist in the management of such a portfolio. (Author)

  12. Unstable volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Gijbels, Irène

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to introduce the break-preserving local linear (BPLL) estimator for the estimation of unstable volatility functions for independent and asymptotically independent processes. Breaks in the structure of the conditional mean and/or the volatility functions are common...... in Finance. Nonparametric estimators are well suited for these events due to the flexibility of their functional form and their good asymptotic properties. However, the local polynomial kernel estimators are not consistent at points where the volatility function has a break. The estimator presented...

  13. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  14. A new approach for crude oil price prediction based on stream learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is the world's leading fuel, and its prices have a big impact on the global environment, economy as well as oil exploration and exploitation activities. Oil price forecasts are very useful to industries, governments and individuals. Although many methods have been developed for predicting oil prices, it remains one of the most challenging forecasting problems due to the high volatility of oil prices. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for crude oil price prediction based on a new machine learning paradigm called stream learning. The main advantage of our stream learning approach is that the prediction model can capture the changing pattern of oil prices since the model is continuously updated whenever new oil price data are available, with very small constant overhead. To evaluate the forecasting ability of our stream learning model, we compare it with three other popular oil price prediction models. The experiment results show that our stream learning model achieves the highest accuracy in terms of both mean squared prediction error and directional accuracy ratio over a variety of forecast time horizons.

  15. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  16. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  17. Chasing volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    The realized volatility of financial returns is characterized by persistence and occurrence of unpreditable large increments. To capture those features, we introduce the Multiplicative Error Model with jumps (MEM-J). When a jump component is included in the multiplicative specification, the condi......The realized volatility of financial returns is characterized by persistence and occurrence of unpreditable large increments. To capture those features, we introduce the Multiplicative Error Model with jumps (MEM-J). When a jump component is included in the multiplicative specification...... estimate alternative specifications of the model using a set of daily bipower measures for 7 stock indexes and 16 individual NYSE stocks. The estimates of the jump component confirm that the probability of jumps dramatically increases during the financial crisis. Compared to other realized volatility...... models, the introduction of the jump component provides a sensible improvement in the fit, as well as for in-sample and out-of-sample volatility tail forecasts....

  18. Oil price influence on spanish gas prices : fundamentals and volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Cansado Bravo, Pablo

    2017-01-01

    A pesar de la rápida evolución de los mercados organizados nacionales de gas en el mundo, la contratación de gas a largo plazo sigue siendo el proceso principal de determinación de precios de referencia, al menos en Europa continental y Asia Oriental. El caso de España es un ejemplo de mercado local, donde las condiciones de suministro de gas están condicionadas por la existencia de una cantidad sustancial de contratos de largo plazo, que junto con la limitada interconexión gasista con Franci...

  19. Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettendorf, L. [Tinbergen Instituut, Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Netherlands); Van der Geest, S. [Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kuper, G. [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2005-04-15

    This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

  20. Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds among recently pregnant rural Guatemalan women cooking and heating with solid fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, John R; Asteria-Peñaloza, Renée; Diaz-Artiga, Anaité; Davila, Gilberto; Hammond, S Katharine; Ryde, Ian T; Meyer, Joel N; Benowitz, Neal; Thompson, Lisa M

    2017-06-01

    Household air pollution is a major contributor to death and disability worldwide. Over 95% of rural Guatemalan households use woodstoves for cooking or heating. Woodsmoke contains carcinogenic or fetotoxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Increased PAHs and VOCs have been shown to increase levels of oxidative stress. We examined PAH and VOC exposures among recently pregnant rural Guatemalan women exposed to woodsmoke and compared exposures to levels seen occupationally or among smokers. Urine was collected from 23 women who were 3 months post-partum three times over 72h: morning (fasting), after lunch, and following dinner or use of wood-fired traditional sauna baths (samples=68). Creatinine-adjusted urinary concentrations of metabolites of four PAHs and eight VOCs were analyzed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Creatinine-adjusted urinary biomarkers of oxidative stress, 8-isoprostane and 8-OHdG, were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Long-term (pregnancy through 3 months prenatal) exposure to particulate matter and airborne PAHs were measured. Women using wood-fueled chimney stoves are exposed to high levels of particulate matter (median 48h PM 2.5 105.7μg/m 3 ; inter-quartile range (IQR): 77.6-130.4). Urinary PAH and VOC metabolites were significantly associated with woodsmoke exposures: 2-naphthol (median (IQR) in ng/mg creatinine: 295.9 (74.4-430.9) after sauna versus 23.9 (17.1-49.5) fasting; and acrolein: 571.7 (429.3-1040.7) after sauna versus 268.0 (178.3-398.6) fasting. Urinary PAH (total PAH: ρ=0.89, p0.85) or PAH and VOC biomarkers (ρ=-0.20 to 0.38, p>0.07). Urinary metabolite concentrations were significantly greater than those of heavy smokers (mean cigarettes/day=18) across all PAHs. In 15 (65%) women, maximum 1-hydroxypyrene concentrations exceeded the occupational exposure limit of coke-oven workers. The high concentrations of urinary PAH and VOC metabolites among

  1. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  2. An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang

    2003-01-01

    Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.

  3. The message in North American energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, A. [Department of Economics, The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Herbert, J. [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia (United States)

    1999-10-01

    How similar is the price behavior of North American natural gas, fuel oil, and power prices? Using current state-of-the-art econometric methodology, we explore the degree of shared trends across North American energy markets. Across these markets, there appear to be effective arbitraging mechanisms for the price of natural gas and fuel oil, but not for the price of electricity. 11 refs.

  4. Natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, W.A.

    1990-01-01

    Since the 1970s, many electric utilities and industrial boiler fuel users have invested in dual fuel use capability which has allowed them to choose between natural gas, residual fuel oil, and in some instances, coal as boiler fuels. The immediate reason for this investment was the need for security of supply. Wellhead regulation of natural gas prices had resulted in shortages during the 1970s. Because many industrial users were given lowest priority in pipeline curtailments, these shortages affected most severely boiler fuel consumption of natural gas. In addition, foreign supply disruptions during the 1970s called into question the ready availability of oil. Many boiler fuel users of oil responded by increasing their ability to diversify to other sources of energy. Even though widespread investment in dual fuel use capability by boiler fuel users was initially motivated by a need for security of supply, perhaps the most important consequence of this investment was greater substitutability between natural gas and resid and a more competitive boiler fuel market. By the early 1980s, most boiler fuel users were able to switch from one fuel to another and often did for savings measured in pennies per MMBtu. Boiler fuel consumption became the marginal use of both natural gas and resid, with coal a looming threat on the horizon to both fuels

  5. Coal prices rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, A.

    2001-01-01

    Coking and semi hard coking coal price agreements had been reached, but, strangely enough, the reaching of common ground on semi soft coking coal, ultra low volatile coal and thermal coal seemed some way off. More of this phenomenon later, but suffice to say that, traditionally, the semi soft and thermal coal prices have fallen into place as soon as the hard, or prime, coking coal prices have been determined. The rise and rise of the popularity of the ultra low volatile coals has seen demand for this type of coal grow almost exponentially. Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the coking coal settlements announced to date is that the deals appear almost to have been preordained. The extraordinary thing is that the preordination has been at the prescience of the sellers. Traditionally, coking coal price fixing has been the prerogative of the Japanese Steel Mills (JSM) cartel (Nippon, NKK, Kawasaki, Kobe and Sumitomo) who presented a united front to a somewhat disorganised force of predominantly Australian and Canadian sellers. However, by the time JFY 2001 had come round, the rules of the game had changed

  6. Option price and market instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  7. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  8. Compound Option Pricing under Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiandong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the uncertainty of a financial market includes two aspects: risk and vagueness; in this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the imprecise input parameters (interest rate and volatility. We present the fuzzy price of compound option by fuzzing the interest and volatility in Geske’s compound option pricing formula. For each α, the α-level set of fuzzy prices is obtained according to the fuzzy arithmetics and the definition of fuzzy-valued function. We apply a defuzzification method based on crisp possibilistic mean values of the fuzzy interest rate and fuzzy volatility to obtain the crisp possibilistic mean value of compound option price. Finally, we present a numerical analysis to illustrate the compound option pricing under fuzzy environment.

  9. Impact of electric range and fossil fuel price level on the economics of plug-in hybrid vehicles and greenhouse gas abatement costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Özdemir, Enver Doruk; Hartmann, Niklas

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the energy consumption shares of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) for electricity from the grid and conventional fuel depending on electric driving range are estimated. The resulting mobility costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement costs per vehicle kilometer for the year 2030 are calculated and optimal electric driving range (which indicates the size of the battery) is found for different oil price levels with the help of a MATLAB based model for a typical compact passenger car (e.g. VW Golf). The results show that the optimum electric driving range for minimum mobility costs of a PHEV is between 12 and 32 km. Furthermore, optimum GHG abatement costs are achieved with an electric driving range between 16 and 23 km. These results are considerable lower than most market ready PHEVs (electric driving range of 50 to 100 km), which shows that the automobile industry should concentrate on shorter electric driving range for PHEVs in the near future to offer cost optimum mobility and low GHG abatement costs. However, the oil price level and the consumer driving habits impact heavily on the cost performance as well as the optimum electric driving range of plug-in hybrid vehicles. - Highlights: ► We analyze the energy consumption (and share of grid electricity) of plug-in hybrid vehicles. ► We analyzed the mobility costs and GHG abatement costs depending on electric driving range. ► Mobility costs of plug-in hybrid vehicles can be lower than those of conventional diesel vehicles in 2030. ► The optimum mobility costs are achieved with the electric driving range between 12 and 32 km. ► The optimum GHG abatement costs are achieved with the electric driving range between 16 and 23 km.

  10. Dynamic pricing for demand response considering market price uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...

  11. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

  12. An essay pertaining to the supply and price of natural gas as fuel for electric utilities and independent power producers; and, the related growth of non-utility generators to meet capacity shortfalls in the next decade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clements, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact natural gas and petroleum prices have on how the electric power industry decides to meet increasing demand for electric power. The topics of the paper include the pricing impact of the Iraq-Kuwait conflict, the BTU parity argument, electric utility capacity shortfalls in 1993, the growth of the non-utility generator and the independent power developer market, natural gas as the desired fuel of the decade, the financial strategy in acquiring natural gas reserves, the cost and availability of natural gas supplies for non-utility generators, and the reluctance of the gas producers to enter long term contracts

  13. Stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Veraart, Almut

    This paper introduces the concept of stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time and, hence, extends standard stochastic volatility (SV) models to allow for an additional source of randomness associated with greater variability in the data. We discuss how stochastic volatility...... of volatility can be defined both non-parametrically, where we link it to the quadratic variation of the stochastic variance process, and parametrically, where we propose two new SV models which allow for stochastic volatility of volatility. In addition, we show that volatility of volatility can be estimated...

  14. Estimation of volatility of selected oil production projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa Lima, Gabriel A.; Suslick, Saul B.

    2006-01-01

    In oil project valuation and investment decision-making, volatility is a key parameter, but it is difficult to estimate. From a traditional investment viewpoint, volatility reduces project value because it increases its discount rate via a higher risk premium. Contrarily, according to the real-option pricing theory, volatility may aggregate value to the project, since the downside potential is limited whereas the upside is theoretically unbounded. However, the estimation of project volatility is very complicated since there is not a historical series of project values. In such cases, many analysts assume that oil price volatility is equal to that of project. In order to overcome such problems, in this paper an alternative numerical method based on present value of future cash flows and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to estimate the volatility of projects. This method is applied to estimate the volatility of 12 deep-water offshore oil projects considering that oil price will evolve according to one of two stochastic processes: Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean-Reverting Motion. Results indicate that the volatility of commodity usually undervalue that of project. For the set of offshore projects analyzed in this paper, project volatility is at least 79% higher than that of oil prices and increases dramatically in those cases of high capital expenditures and low price. (author)

  15. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  16. Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractElectricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these

  17. Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.J.H. Bettendorf (Leon); S.A. van der Geest (Stéphanie); G. Kuper

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the

  18. Pricing and hedging in incomplete financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wurth, A.M.

    2009-01-01

    In the practical part, Chapter 4 considers numerical methods for indifference pricing in a stochastic volatility model. In Chapter 5, a feasible procedure is developed for calculating the CVaR price in unit-linked insurance products under an additional assumption. This assumption is relaxed in

  19. Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

  20. Long-term projections for electricity and gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borggrefe, Frieder; Lochner, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    The article analyses potential developments of wholesale electricity prices in Germany until 2030. The relevant determinants and their effects on prices are shown. Several projections demonstrate the impact of future fuel prices taking the political framework into account. The importance of carbon and gas prices - and the latter's relationship to oil prices - are discussed extensively. Although forecasting electricity prices is associated with great uncertainties, the article illustrates the relative impacts of the various price determinants and their interactions. (orig.)