WorldWideScience

Sample records for variation time trends

  1. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  2. Time-trend and variations in the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernal-Delgado Enrique

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite recommendations for greater use of second-eye cataract surgery and the bilateral progression of the disease, there is a substantial proportion of unmet need for this treatment. Few studies have explored the factors associated with second-eye cataract surgery utilisation. The objective of our study was to estimate the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery, evaluate its time-trend, and explore differences in utilisation by patients' gender, age, and region of residence. Methods All senile cataract surgeries performed between 1999 and 2002 in the public health system of Catalonia (Spain were obtained from the Minimum Data Set. The proportion of second-eye surgery from November 2000 to December 2002 was calculated. The time-trend of this proportion was characterised through linear regression models with the logarithmic transformation of time. Results The proportion of second-eye surgery was 30.0% and showed an increasing trend from 24.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 21.6; 26.1 in November 2000 to 31.8% (95% CI 31.4; 33.6 in December 2002. This proportion was 1.9% (95% CI 0.9; 2.9 higher in women (p Conclusion We predict greater utilization of second-eye surgery in patients aged 70 to 79 years and in women. A greater increase in the utilisation rates of second-eye surgery is expected in the regions with lower proportions and in older patients. The observed trend suggests that there will be a substantial proportion of unmet need for bilateral surgery.

  3. Geographical variations in sex ratio trends over time in multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Trojano

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A female/male (F/M ratio increase over time in multiple sclerosis (MS patients was demonstrated in many countries around the world. So far, a direct comparison of sex ratio time-trends among MS populations from different geographical areas was not carried out. OBJECTIVE: In this paper we assessed and compared sex ratio trends, over a 60-year span, in MS populations belonging to different latitudinal areas. METHODS: Data of a cohort of 15,996 (F = 11,290; M = 4,706 definite MS with birth years ranging from 1930 to 1989 were extracted from the international MSBase registry and the New Zealand MS database. Gender ratios were calculated by six decades based on year of birth and were adjusted for the F/M born-alive ratio derived from the respective national registries of births. RESULTS: Adjusted sex ratios showed a significant increase from the first to the last decade in the whole MS sample (from 2.35 to 2.73; p = 0.03 and in the subgroups belonging to the areas between 83° N and 45° N (from 1.93 to 4.55; p<0.0001 and between 45° N to 35° N (from 1.46 to 2.30; p<0.05 latitude, while a sex ratio stability over time was found in the subgroup from areas between 12° S and 55° S latitude. The sex ratio increase mainly affected relapsing-remitting (RR MS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm a general sex ratio increase over time in RRMS and also demonstrate a latitudinal gradient of this increase. These findings add useful information for planning case-control studies aimed to explore sex-related factors responsible for MS development.

  4. Time trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in Asia: Variations across populations and histological types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shao-Hua; Lagergren, Jesper

    2016-10-01

    We aimed to assess temporal trends in incidence rates of oesophageal cancer in Asian countries. Using data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, we examined the temporal trends in incidence rates of oesophageal cancer by population and histological type in seven Asian countries in 1988-2007. Age-period-cohort analyses estimated the overall annual percentage changes (net drifts) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in incidence rates. The age-standardised incidence rate of oesophageal cancer declined in most Asian populations, but remained relatively unchanged in Japan and Israel. The rate of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma decreased in Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, but was stable in Japan. The net drifts were statistically significant in men in Hong Kong (-3.4%, 95% CI: -6.1%, -0.7%) and in women in Singapore (-10.1%, 95% CI: -14.4%, -5.5%). The age-standardised incidence rates of oesophageal adenocarcinoma were below 2 and 0.5 per 100 000 in men and women, respectively, across all periods in the all registers containing valid data on histological type. The age-standardised incidence rate of oesophageal adenocarcinoma slightly increased in Japan, Singapore, and Israel, although the net drift was statistically significant only in Israeli men (4.9%, 95% CI: 0.8%, 9.1%). The overall incidence rates of oesophageal cancer declined in most Asian countries, which is due to a decrease in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma incidence. However, attention needs to be paid to a probable beginning of an increasing incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in Asia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Time Trends and Variations in Electroconvulsive Treatment in Denmark 2008 to 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Eva; Osler, Merete; Jørgensen, Martin Balslev

    2017-01-01

    between 2008 and 2014 were retrieved together with information on patient characteristics. Annual treated person rates were calculated for sex, age, admission diagnosis, and region. RESULTS: The overall ECT treatment rate was 36 (95% confidence interval, 34-38) per 100,000 resident population during...... the study period. The rate was highest in women and increased with age. There were modest, however, stable regional differences in rates (extremal quotient = 1.4). Electroconvulsive treatment was most commonly used in patients with depression with (19.4%) or without (54.9%) psychotic symptoms. The median......OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine status and variations in the practice of electroconvulsive treatment (ECT) in Denmark in patient characteristics, indications, treatment patterns, and hospital region. METHOD: All 140,627 ECTs registered in the Danish National Patient Registry...

  6. Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gangsaas, Anne, E-mail: a.gangsaas@erasmusmc.nl; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r{sup 2}=0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r{sup 2}=0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol

  7. Long-term trends in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Denmark: the seasonal variation changes over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Jannet; Lyngaae-Jørgensen, Annette; Carstensen, Bendix

    2009-01-01

    There is a worldwide increase of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). In 1996, the Danish population-based registry was initiated including all newly diagnosed children aged 0-15 yr. This is the report of incidence and seasonal variation for the first 10 yr of the registry. The data was analyzed using...... Poisson's regression analysis. A total of 2166 children with diabetes were diagnosed before the age of 15 yr between 1996 and 2005. In this period, the annual increase in childhood T1DM was 3.43% (95% confidence interval: 1.91-4.97), which was unaffected by age and gender. Seasonal variation in incidence...... rates varied by year but not by age and gender. In conclusion, there is a steep increase in incidence of childhood T1DM in Denmark; the increase is comparable with the increase seen in other European countries. There is a significant seasonal variation that changes on a year-to-year basis. The observed...

  8. [Time trends and seasonal variation of iodine content in German cow's milk--investigations from Northrhine-Westfalia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johner, Simone A; von Nida, Katrin; Jahreis, Gerhard; Remer, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Cow's milk is one of the most important iodine providers in the human diet. The milk iodine content (MIC) is significantly determined by cattle feeding. The aim of the study was to investigate the longitudinal development of the MIC of German cow's milk during the last years and to assess the current contribution of milk consumption to the population's iodine supply. MIC was analysed by a Cer-Arsenit method after alkaline wet washing in 112 milk samples from nationwide available trademarks (eight samples each were purchased in June and December from 2004 onward to 2010 in the same food markets in the greater Dortmund area). We found an increasing trend of MIC until 2010 (p milk (p = 0.6). The MIC of summer milk was about 22 microg/l lower than that of winter milk (p milk. MIC of organically produced milk was in average about 54 microg/l lower than that of conventionally produced milk (p milk consumption. An appropriate iodine supplementation in foodstuff can be assumed.

  9. Trends in Time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andries van den Broek; Koen Breedveld; Jos de Haan; Joep de Hart; Frank Huysmans

    2004-01-01

    How do the Dutch spend their time? How much time for example do they devote to remunerated work, care, reading or voluntary work? And: how is time structured in Dutch society? To what extent is Sunday still a special day? The Social and Cultural Planning Office has been participating in a

  10. Climatic Variations, Trends and Drought Frequency in Dejen District ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-31

    ajol.info and www.bioline.org.br/ja. Climatic Variations, Trends and ... Keywords: Climate change, drought frequency, standardized precipitation index, rainfall variations ... Due to various climate risks, East Africa is one of the.

  11. Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. METHODS: Register data on income...... and mortality from 1986 to 2014 were used to investigate trends in life expectancy, life disparity and the threshold age that separates 'premature' and 'late' deaths. Mortality compression was quantified and compared between income quartiles. RESULTS: Since 1986, male life expectancy increased by 4.2 years...

  12. Analysis of rainfall variations and trends in coastal Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of rainfall variations and trends in coastal Tanzania. Julius Francis, Shigalla B Mahongo. Abstract. Rainfall in coastal Tanzania has been investigated for their variability and trends from seven key weather stations during the last 50 years (1960-2009). Results indicate that the island of Mafia receives the highest ...

  13. ong-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailov, A. V.; de La Morena, B. A.

    2003-03-01

    A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This natural relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later) when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the break down effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.

  14. Appendicitis: Trends in incidence, age, sex, and seasonal variations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    allergens in the dust, during the sandstorms of the. Spring months, in the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this retrospective study is to assess the trends in incidence and patterns of variation with age, sex, and seasons of the year, thus contributing to the world of literature on appendicitis, from this part of Nigeria. Materials and ...

  15. Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

    OpenAIRE

    Valkhoff, Vera E.; Van Soest, Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom, Miriam C; Kuipers, Ernst J.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

  16. Spatial and social variations in cycling patterns in a mature cycling country: exploring differences and trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, L.; Bertolini, L.; te Brömmelstroet, M.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the Netherlands’ position as a premier cycling country (mainly due to its high cycling mode share), there is scarce insight into the variations of bicycle use between different spatial and social contexts as well as changes and trends over time. This gap severely limits the understanding of

  17. Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Shi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed the variation trends in precipitation according to the observed data in the Shaying River catchment, upstream of the Huai River from 1951 to 2010, using the linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test. Further study was made by introducing R/S analysis, and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated to predict the future trends of rainfall. The results suggested that the changing trends in precipitation for different time series in the whole catchment were relatively complex and not obvious. The annual precipitation showed a slightly increasing trend over the past 60 years, and in the future it would be antipersistent. For the 38 rainfall stations, the trends in spring and autumn precipitation time series were mostly negative; on the contrary, the trends in summer and winter were mostly positive. The results also indicated that the annual precipitation series showed positive trends in the northern region and negative trends in the southern region. Moreover, the relationships of H-Z and H-β of the 38 stations were analyzed. The results indicated that the greater the absolute values of Z the stronger the persistent nature. Meanwhile, for most of the H values were close to 0.5, the randomness of the future trends could not be ignored.

  18. Time trends in bullying behavior in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-07-01

    Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian adolescents. The survey reported here is part of the larger population-based cross-sectional (2002, 2006, and 2010) "Health Behaviour in School Aged Children" (HBSC) transnational study. The sample was comprised of 13,174 Italian middle and secondary school students (11- to 15-year-olds; 50.3% girls). Data were collected through a self-report questionnaire. Measures included involvement in bullying as either a perpetrator or a victim. Trends were determined using Gamma statistics. Consistent and robust decreases in the prevalence of bullying between 2002 and 2010 were detected in Italy. During this time frame both frequent and occasional bullying and victimization decreased by half. We measured a strong decrease in involvement in bullying behavior in Italy, in particular after 2006, when the Italian government invested more systematically in the prevention effort on bullying. This is encouraging news for policymakers and practitioners working in the field of bullying prevention. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  19. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends.......,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...

  20. Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

  1. Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long-term trends and variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miladinova, S; Stips, A; Garcia-Gorriz, E; Macias Moy, D

    2017-07-01

    The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960-1970, 1970-1995, 1995-2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large-scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes.

  2. Colorectal cancer-global burden, trends, and geographical variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douaiher, Jeffrey; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Grams, Benjamin; Chowdhury, Sanjib; Alatise, Olusegun; Are, Chandrakanth

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC). Data (2012-2030) relating to CRC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study demonstrate a rising global burden of colorectal cancer which persists until the year 2035 and likely beyond. The rise in the global burden is not uniform with significant variations influenced by geographic location, socio-economic status, age, and gender. Although the EURO region has the highest burden, Asia as a continent continues to bear the heaviest brunt of the disease. Although the burden of disease is higher in more developed regions, mortality is considerably higher in less developed regions and this gap widens over the next two decades. The disease predominantly affects the male gender across all regions of the world. Age has a complex relation with the burden of CRC and is affected by the cross-influences relating to socio-economic status. The results of our study demonstrate a rising global burden of CRC with some unique variations. Knowledge of this data can increase awareness and help strategic targeting of efforts and resources. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  4. NO TRANSIT TIMING VARIATIONS IN WASP-4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrucci, R.; Schwartz, M.; Buccino, A. P.; Mauas, P. J. D. [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Jofré, E.; Cúneo, V.; Gómez, M. [CONICET, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (Argentina); Martínez, C. [Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba, Córdoba (Argentina)

    2013-12-20

    We present six new transits of the system WASP-4. Together with 28 light curves published in the literature, we perform a homogeneous study of its parameters and search for variations in the transits' central times. The final values agree with those previously reported, except for a slightly lower inclination. We find no significant long-term variations in i or R{sub P} /R {sub *}. The O-C mid-transit times do not show signs of transit timing variations greater than 54 s.

  5. Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gillum Richard F

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007. Methods Data for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999–2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA and European Americans (EA aged 35–84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC. Results For both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (−4.2, large fringe metro (−4.3, medium metro urbanization strata (−4.4, and small metro (−3.9. APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (−5.3, and especially the non-core/non-metro (−6.5. For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (−5.3, large fringe metro (−4.3 and medium metro

  6. Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

  7. Long-term variations and trends in the polar E-region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjoland, L. M.; Ogawa, Y.; Hall, C.; Rietveld, M.; Løvhaug, U. P.; La Hoz, C.; Miyaoka, H.

    2017-10-01

    As the EISCAT UHF radar system in Northern Scandinavia started its operations in the early 1980s, the collected data cover about three solar cycles. These long time-series provide us the opportunity to study long-term variations and trends of ionospheric parameters in the high latitude region. In the present study we have used the EISCAT Tromsø UHF data to investigate variations of the Hall conductivity and ion temperatures in the E-region around noon. Both the ion temperature and the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity are confirmed to depend strongly on solar zenith angle. However, the dependence on solar activity seems to be weak. In order to search for trends in these parameters, the ion temperature and peak altitude of the Hall conductivity data were adjusted for their seasonal and solar cycle dependence. A very weak descent (∼0.2 km/ decade) was seen in the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity. The ion temperature at 110 km shows a cooling trend (∼10 K/ decade). However, other parameters than solar zenith angle and solar activity seem to affect the ion temperature at this altitude, and a better understanding of these parameters is necessary to derive a conclusive trend. In this paper, we discuss what may cause the characteristics of the variations in the electric conductivities and ion temperatures in the high latitude region.

  8. Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N; Bartlein, Patrick J; Shafer, Sarah L; Brewer, Simon

    2018-01-31

    Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in 'growing degree days'-a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year-of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate

  9. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005.......To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005....

  10. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Geographic variations and temporal trends of Salmonella-associated hospitalization in the U.S. elderly, 1991-2004: a time series analysis of the impact of HACCP regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Kenneth K H; Webb, Patrick; Russell, Robert M; Naumova, Elena N

    2009-12-03

    About 1.4 million Salmonella infections, a common food-borne illness, occur in the U.S. annually; the elderly (aged 65 or above) are most susceptible. In 1997, the USDA introduced the Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Systems (PR/HACCP) which demands regular Salmonella testing in various establishments processing meat products, such as broiler chickens. Impact evaluations of PR/HACCP on hospitalizations related to Salmonella are lacking. Hospitalization records of the U.S. elderly in 1991-2004 were obtained from the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services. Harmonic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the long-term trends of Salmonella-related hospitalizations in pre- and post-HACCP periods. Seasonal characteristics of the outcome in the nine Census divisions of the contiguous U.S. were also derived and contrasted. Predicted rates decreased in most divisions after 1997, except South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central. These three divisions also demonstrated higher overall hospitalization rates, pronounced seasonal patterns, and consistent times to peak at about 32nd to 34th week of the year. The impact of HACCP was geographically different. South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central divisions should be targeted in further Salmonella preventive programs. Further research is needed to identify the best program type and timing of implementation.

  12. Geographic variations and temporal trends of Salmonella-associated hospitalization in the U.S. elderly, 1991-2004: A time series analysis of the impact of HACCP regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Robert M

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background About 1.4 million Salmonella infections, a common food-borne illness, occur in the U.S. annually; the elderly (aged 65 or above are most susceptible. In 1997, the USDA introduced the Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Systems (PR/HACCP which demands regular Salmonella testing in various establishments processing meat products, such as broiler chickens. Impact evaluations of PR/HACCP on hospitalizations related to Salmonella are lacking. Methods Hospitalization records of the U.S. elderly in 1991-2004 were obtained from the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services. Harmonic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the long-term trends of Salmonella-related hospitalizations in pre- and post-HACCP periods. Seasonal characteristics of the outcome in the nine Census divisions of the contiguous U.S. were also derived and contrasted. Results Predicted rates decreased in most divisions after 1997, except South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central. These three divisions also demonstrated higher overall hospitalization rates, pronounced seasonal patterns, and consistent times to peak at about 32nd to 34th week of the year. Conclusion The impact of HACCP was geographically different. South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central divisions should be targeted in further Salmonella preventive programs. Further research is needed to identify the best program type and timing of implementation.

  13. Climatic Variations, Trends and Drought Frequency in Dejen District ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-31

    Dec 31, 2017 ... The trends in temperature and rainfall over the period 1979-. 2014 were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results indicated a significant increase in temperature consistent with global temperature pattern. The decreasing trend in rainfall is contrary to the projections of a climate model for East ...

  14. Climatic variations, trends and drought frequency in Dejen District ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trends in temperature and rainfall over the period 1979- 2014 were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results indicated a significant increase in temperature consistent with global temperature pattern. The decreasing trend in rainfall is contrary to the projections of a climate model for East Africa.The results ...

  15. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  16. A search for transit timing variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kramm U.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Photometric follow-ups of transiting exoplanets (TEPs may lead to discoveries of additional, less massive bodies in extrasolar systems. This is possible by detecting and then analysing variations in transit timing of transiting exoplanets. In 2009 we launched an international observing campaign, the aim of which is to detect and characterise signals of transit timing variation (TTV in selected TEPs. The programme is realised by collecting data from 0.6-2.2-m telescopes spread worldwide at different longitudes. We present our observing strategy and summarise first results for WASP-3b with evidence for a 15 Earth-mass perturber in an outer 2:1 orbital resonance.

  17. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We propose a bootstrap algorithm to identify 'cognizable' 'time-trends' of gene expression. Properties of the proposed algorithm are derived using a simulation study. The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability of success, even when sample sizes were small (n<10).

  18. Timing Variations in Two Balkan Percussion Performances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Goldberg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many songs and dance pieces from the Balkan Peninsula employ aksak meter, in which two categorically different durations, long and short, coexist in the sequence of beats that performers emphasize and listeners move to. This paper analyzes the durations of aksak beats and measures in two recorded percussion performances that use a particular aksak beat sequence, long-short-short. The results suggest that the timing of beats varies in conjunction with factors including melodic grouping and interaction among members of a performing ensemble and audience. Timing variation linked to melodic groups occurs on a solo recording of a Macedonian Romani folk song. The performer, Muzafer Bizlim, taps an ostinato while singing, and the timing of his taps seems to mark some local and large-scale group boundaries. Melodic organization also seems relevant to the timing of beats and measures on a recording of Bulgarian percussionist Mitko Popov playing the tŭpan, a double-headed bass drum, in a small folk music ensemble. In Popov’s performance, however, timing differences might be related to characteristics of the ensemble dynamic, such as the coordination of multiple musical participants. These interpretations generate possibilities for future study of timing variations in relation to rhythm and meter.

  19. Trends In The Study Of Language Variation:Theoretical And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Register study, stylistics, sociolinguistics, discourse analysis, and English for specific purposes all deal with language variation. This can be gleaned from several perspectives. In this paper, however, we have tried to look at the issue of variation from two main perspectives namely: the theoretical and the taxonomic.

  20. Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasson, Isaac

    2016-04-01

    The educational gradient in life expectancy is well documented in the United States and in other low-mortality countries. Highly educated Americans, on average, live longer than their low-educated counterparts, who have recently seen declines in adult life expectancy. However, limiting the discussion on lifespan inequality to mean differences alone overlooks other dimensions of inequality and particularly disparities in lifespan variation. The latter represents a unique form of inequality, with higher variation translating into greater uncertainty in the time of death from an individual standpoint, and higher group heterogeneity from a population perspective. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1990 to 2010, this is the first study to document trends in both life expectancy and S25--the standard deviation of age at death above 25--by educational attainment. Among low-educated whites, adult life expectancy declined by 3.1 years for women and by 0.6 years for men. At the same time, S25 increased by about 1.5 years among high school-educated whites of both genders, becoming an increasingly important component of total lifespan inequality. By contrast, college-educated whites benefited from rising life expectancy and record low variation in age at death, consistent with the shifting mortality scenario. Among blacks, adult life expectancy increased, and S25 plateaued or declined in nearly all educational attainment groups, although blacks generally lagged behind whites of the same gender on both measures. Documenting trends in lifespan variation can therefore improve our understanding of lifespan inequality and point to diverging trajectories in adult mortality across socioeconomic strata.

  1. Recent secular trends in pubertal timing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kaspar; Mouritsen, Annette; Aksglaede, Lise

    2012-01-01

    . However, the limited evidence on which these recommendations were based led many experts to question these new suggestions. The emergence of new European pubertal timing data evaluated by robust clinical as well as biochemical markers has broadened our insight on how to interpret the recent pubertal...

  2. Nationwide Trends and Variations in Urological Surgical Interventions and Renal Outcome in Patients with Spina Bifida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsin-Hsiao S; Lloyd, Jessica C; Wiener, John S; Routh, Jonathan C

    2016-04-01

    Bladder dysfunction in patients with spina bifida can lead to significant morbidity due to renal insufficiency. Indications for surgery vary among institutions and the impact is unclear. We examined trends and variations in urological interventions and chronic renal insufficiency in patients with spina bifida. We reviewed NIS (Nationwide Inpatient Sample) for all patients with spina bifida treated from 1998 to 2011. We used ICD-9-CM codes to identify urological surgery and chronic renal insufficiency. We calculated the Spearman correlation coefficients between rates of spina bifida related bladder surgeries and rates of chronic renal insufficiency outcomes by state. Linear regression models were fitted to investigate the associations between rates of spina bifida related surgery and chronic renal insufficiency across treatment years. We identified 427,616 spina bifida hospital admissions. Mean patient age was 26 years and 56% of patients were female. Of the admissions 35,249 (8%) were for chronic renal insufficiency and 11,078 (3%) were for surgery. During the study period chronic renal insufficiency rates doubled from 6% to 12% and surgery rates decreased from 2.0% to 1.8%. There was a moderately weak inverse association between surgery and chronic renal insufficiency rates with time (r = -0.3, p = 0.06) and by state (r = -0.3, p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis higher rates of surgery were associated with the state in which the patient was treated (p spina bifida related surgery (p = 0.67). We observed a temporal and geographic trend toward decreasing urological surgery and increasing chronic renal insufficiency rates in spina bifida and a wide variation in urological surgical rates among states. Further study is needed to determine the factors behind these trends and variations in spina bifida management. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Time trend in diagnosing dementia in secondary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2010-01-01

    To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers....

  4. Oesophageal cancer in France and Switzerland: recent time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuyns, A J

    1992-04-01

    This paper reports the incidence of oesophageal carcinoma in five cancer registries from France and in a further two from the francophone regions of Switzerland. The cancers are segregated into the two main histological types (squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma). In Belgium the proportion of adenocarcinomas is much higher than in any of the French registries. A study of time trends shows no clear trend in overall incidence of oesophageal cancer. There is a trend towards an increasing proportion of adenocarcinomas with time, that is most apparent in Doubs, Dijon and Vaud registries.

  5. [Deaths by homicide in Mexico: trends, socio-geographical variations and associated factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vega-López, María Guadalupe; Cabrera-Pivaral, Carlos Enrique; Vega-López, Agustín; Muñoz de la Torre, Armando

    2012-12-01

    This study seeks to analyze the trend of homicide rates (total and by firearm) in Mexico between 1990 and 2009 and identify the variables that best explain the geographical variations of these rates in the 2008-2009 two-year period. Homicide rates, adjusted for age, were calculated for both sexes between 1990 and 2009 and for each state in 2008-2009. Factors associated with the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified using multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that the homicide rate in Mexico decreased between 1990 and 2007, but doubled over the last two years (from 7.6 to 16.6 per 100,000). In 2009, the male homicide rate was almost 9 times higher than the female rate and about two-thirds of homicides involved firearms. Multivariate analysis reveals that impunity, drug trafficking, alcohol and drug consumption and school dropout in basic education - in that order - are key factors for understanding the geographical variations in homicide rates in Mexico in 2008-2009. Findings suggest that to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, it is necessary not only to fight the drug cartels, but above all to implement structural reforms in the criminal justice system and reduce the socioeconomic disparities among states.

  6. Recent trends in grammatical variation in Afrikaans varieties within ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Norme vir Afrikaans. Enkele riglyne by die gebruik van Afrikaans. Pretoria: Van Schaik. Cheshire, J. 2002. Sex and gender in variationist research. In J.K. Chambers, P. Trudgill and. N. Schilling-Estes (eds). The handbook of variation and change. London: Blackwell. pp. 423-443. Combrink, J.G.H. 1984. Afrikaans in Afrika.

  7. Parkinson's disease incidence: magnitude, comparability, time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, J; Stawiarz, L

    1991-11-01

    In this study, we reviewed incidence surveys of Parkinson's Disease (PD) from all over the world, published during the period 1945-1989, using reported quality criteria. In addition, we compared age-specific PD incidences from selected observations by stratified analysis. Crude incidences were described for 11 populations, and age-specific incidences for three of them: Iceland, Rochester (Minn, USA), and Turku (Finland). Effect modification by age was detected: a) by comparing incidences by age at diagnosis with incidence by age at clinical disease onset; and b) when only data on onset of disease was computed. For disease onsets, the incidences in Rochester for the period 1955-1966, and in Turku (Finland) during the interval 1968-1970, were lower than that in Iceland for the period 1958-1960: RR = 0.58 95% CI (0.41, 0.83), and RR = 0.67 95% CI (0.51, 0.87), respectively. For the Rochester population aged 40-69 years, a statistically significant 56% decrease in the incidences of Parkinsonism onsets during the period 1945-1966 was found. Validity problems in comparing PD incidences and the role of PD underdiagnosis were emphasized. We concluded that: a) stratified analysis is more suitable than standardization when comparing incidences for etiological purposes; b) the incidence of PD was highest in Iceland; and c) in Rochester, PD incidence under the age of 70 decreased with time.

  8. Noctilucent clouds observed from the UK and Denmark – trends and variations over 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kirkwood

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The combined UK/Denmark record of noctilucent cloud (NLC observations over the period 1964–2006 is analysed. This data set is based on visual observations by professional and voluntary observers, with around 40 observers each year contributing reports. Evidence is found for a significantly longer NLC season, a greater frequency of bright NLC, and a decreased sensitivity to 5-day planetary waves, from 1973–1982, compared to the rest of the time interval. This coincides with a period when the length of the summer season in the stratosphere was also longer (defined by zonal winds at 60° N, 30 hPa. At NLC heights, lower mean temperatures, and/or higher water vapour and/or smaller planetary wave amplitudes could explain these results. The time series of number of NLC nights each year shows a quasi-decadal variation with good anti-correlation with the 10.7 cm solar flux, with a lag of 13–17 months. Using multi-parameter linear fitting, it is found that the solar-cycle and the length of summer in the stratosphere together can explain ~40% of the year-to-year variation in NLC numbers. However, no statistically confidant long-term trend in moderate or bright NLC is found. For NLC displays of moderate or greater intensity, the multi-parameter fit gives a trend of ~0.08 nights (0.35% per year with a statistical probability of 28% that it is zero, or as high as 0.16 nights (0.7% per year. There is a significant increasing trend in the number of reports of faint or very faint NLC which is inconsistent with other observations and may be due changes in observing practices.

  9. Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover

  10. Natural Variations of Tropical Width and Recent Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantsis, Damianos; Sherwood, Steven; Allen, Robert

    2017-04-01

    The temporal evolution of the tropical widening since 1979 is investigated using satellite observations and climate models. The tropics expand poleward but the rate of widening varies considerably, with peaks following lows and vice versa. The maximum temporal trend takes place during the period 1993-2012, and it appears to be associated with a global SST patterns that resembles the ENSO/PDO in the Pacific region. Idealized experiments with CAM5 also reveal that the Tropical Pacific has the biggest contribution to the widening of the tropics, but a significant contribution also comes from the Indian Ocean. It is shown that a number of climate models from the CMIP5 database can simulate, without any type of forcing, the satellite-inferred tropical widening, as well as the Pacific SST pattern associated with it. Our results question the source of the recent observed tropical widening, suggesting that, to a large degree, it is driven by internal variability.

  11. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ptrends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R(2)=0.345; ptrends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  12. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-08-05

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role of endocrine disrupters. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  14. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  15. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... generally stable, the slight trends in TTP and contraceptive failure being in opposite directions, likely indicating an artifact. The rising trend accords with most previous evidence. The increasing trend in male fertility does not contradict the previously reported semen quality deterioration, the effects......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  16. A Spectral Approach to Transit Timing Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofir, Aviv; Xie, Ji-Wei; Jiang, Chao-Feng; Sari, Re’em; Aharonson, Oded

    2018-01-01

    The high planetary multiplicity revealed by Kepler implies that transit timing variations (TTVs) are intrinsically common. The usual procedure for detecting these TTVs is biased to long-period, deep transit planets, whereas most transiting planets have short periods and shallow transits. Here we introduce the Spectral Approach technique to TTVs that allows expanding the TTV catalog toward lower TTV amplitude, shorter orbital period, and shallower transit depth. In the spectral approach, we assume that a sinusoidal TTV exists in the data and then calculate the improvement to χ 2 that this model allows over that of the linear-ephemeris model. This enables detection of TTVs even in cases where the transits are too shallow, so that individual transits cannot be timed. The spectral approach is more sensitive because it has fewer free parameters in its model. Using the spectral approach, we (a) detect 129 new periodic TTVs in Kepler data (an increase of ∼2/3 over a previous TTV catalog); (b) constrain the TTV periods of 34 long-period TTVs and reduce amplitude errors of known TTVs; and (c) identify cases of multi-periodic TTVs, for which absolute planetary mass determination may be possible. We further extend our analysis by using perturbation theory assuming a small TTV amplitude at the detection stage, which greatly speeds up our detection (to a level of few seconds per star). Our extended TTV sample shows no deficit of short-period or low-amplitude transits, in contrast to previous surveys, in which the detection schemes were significantly biased against such systems.

  17. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  18. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....... at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth...

  19. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  20. Climate variability, extremes and trends of total sea level variations of the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Andreas; Herrford, Josefine; Höflich, Katharina; Getzlaff, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    The total sea level change of the Baltic Sea is a combination of wind-driven large volume changes (LVCs), local sea level variations (water level raised by wind and seiche) and wind waves including the sea level change by climatic-driven water density changes and the global sea level rise. The ocean surface velocity is a combination of Ekman surface flow, baroclinic and barotropic flow components and Stokes drift. The first two components can be calculated by standard hydrodynamic 3-dimensional ocean circulation models. But the calculation of the Stokes drift needs an additional approach. The Stokes velocity is a function of the significant wave height and period. It is important for the generation of Langmuir circulation which in turn contributes to the vertical mixing near the ocean surface and to the wind-driven surface transport. We used the Kiel Baltic Sea ice-ocean model (BSIOM) coupled with a simple fully integrated wave model to determine total sea level changes of the entire Baltic Sea for the period 1979-2016. BSIOM has been forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2016). The coupled model system allows the calculation of the total sea level change on a 2.5 km model grid of the entire Baltic Sea as a combination of large volume changes (LVCs), local sea level variations and wind waves including the sea level rise due to climatic-driven water density changes. Thus, combining sea level changes of different time and space scales. Different areas of the Baltic Sea show different trends in significant wave heights over different seasons. During winter, an increase of significant wave height is mainly associated with the retreat of the sea ice cover. There is also an increase of significant wave height of about 5 cm/decade in the eastern Gotland basin during winter. In summer and autumn we found negative trends strongest in the south-western Baltic Sea. Extreme total sea level variations occur if LVCs coincide with local sea level variations and wind waves.

  1. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...

  2. Worldwide incidence, mortality and time trends for cancer of the oesophagus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Bhawna; Kumar, Narinder

    2017-03-01

    The incidence and mortality trends of oesophageal cancer are changing significantly across the world with considerable heterogeneity between sex, histological types, ethnic patterns and geographical distribution. Recent oesophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends have been analysed using data available from the WHO mortality database, the GLOBOCAN 2012 database and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database managed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Huge geographical variation is an epidemiological characteristic of oesophageal cancer, with the highest incidence rates observed in Eastern Asia and in Eastern and Southern Africa and the lowest rates observed in Western Africa. The variation is to the order of more than 21 times between the lowest-incidence and the highest-incidence countries. Although the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma is increasing globally, its incidence rates are decreasing in the USA and a few European countries. However, the decrease in the incidence of squamous cell carcinomas in these countries has been accompanied by a marked increase in adenocarcinoma incidence rates. There is a significant sex variation as well, with men being affected three to four times more commonly than women worldwide. The observed trends reflect significant global variations in the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancers on the basis of sex, geographical distribution, ethnicity and histology. These epidemiological factors related to oesophageal cancers point out a possibly significant role of molecular epidemiological factors (genetic susceptibility and response to treatment) with major differences likely between the characteristics of Asian and Western populations.

  3. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  4. Trends and determinants of time in bed in Geneva, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubelmann, Cédric; Guessous, Idris; Theler, Jean-Marc; Haba-Rubio, José; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

    2014-10-15

    There is limited information regarding sleep duration and determinants in Switzerland. We aimed to assess the trends and determinants of time in bed as a proxy for sleep duration in the Swiss canton of Geneva. Data from repeated, independent cross-sectional representative samples of adults (≥ 18 years) of the Geneva population were collected between 2005 and 2011. Self-reported time in bed, education, monthly income, and nationality were assessed by questionnaire. Data from 3,853 participants (50% women, 51.7 ± 10.9 years) were analyzed. No significant trend was observed between 2005 and 2011 regarding time in bed or the prevalence of short (≤ 6 h/day) and long (> 9 h/day) time in bed. Elderly participants reported a longer time in bed (year-adjusted mean ± standard error: 7.67 ± 0.02, 7.82 ± 0.03, and 8.41 ± 0.04 h/day for 35-50, 50-65, and 65+ years, respectively, p 9,500 SFr, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted polytomous logistic regression showed short and long time in bed to be positively associated with obesity and negatively associated with income. In a Swiss adult population, sleep duration as assessed by time in bed did not change significantly between 2005 and 2011. Both clinical and socioeconomic factors influence time in bed.

  5. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are often used to treat neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia, but the evidence for effect is limited. Antipsychotics have been associated with increased risk of adverse events and mortality in patients with dementia, leading to safety regulations worldwide. OBJECTIVE......: To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  6. High Resolution Space-Time Ozone Modeling for Assessing Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Sujit K; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M

    2007-01-01

    The assessment of air pollution regulatory programs designed to improve ground level ozone concentrations is a topic of considerable interest to environmental managers. To aid this assessment, it is necessary to model the space-time behavior of ozone for predicting summaries of ozone across spatial domains of interest and for the detection of long-term trends at monitoring sites. These trends, adjusted for the effects of meteorological variables, are needed for determining the effectiveness of pollution control programs in terms of their magnitude and uncertainties across space. This paper proposes a space-time model for daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels to provide input to regulatory activities: detection, evaluation, and analysis of spatial patterns of ozone summaries and temporal trends. The model is applied to analyzing data from the state of Ohio which has been chosen because it contains a mix of urban, suburban, and rural ozone monitoring sites in several large cities separated by large rural areas. The proposed space-time model is auto-regressive and incorporates the most important meteorological variables observed at a collection of ozone monitoring sites as well as at several weather stations where ozone levels have not been observed. This problem of misalignment of ozone and meteorological data is overcome by spatial modeling of the latter. In so doing we adopt an approach based on the successive daily increments in meteorological variables. With regard to modeling, the increment (or change-in-meteorology) process proves more attractive than working directly with the meteorology process, without sacrificing any desired inference. The full model is specified within a Bayesian framework and is fitted using MCMC techniques. Hence, full inference with regard to model unknowns is available as well as for predictions in time and space, evaluation of annual summaries and assessment of trends.

  7. Reduction in NO(x) emission trends over China: regional and seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Dasa; Wang, Yuhang; Smeltzer, Charles; Liu, Zhen

    2013-11-19

    We analyzed satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) over China from 2005 to 2010 in order to estimate the top-down anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission trends. Since NOx emissions were affected by the economic slowdown in 2009, we removed one year of abnormal data in the analysis. The estimated average emission trend is 4.01 ± 1.39% yr(-1), which is slower than the trend of 5.8-10.8% yr(-1) reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trends. The average NOx emission trend of 3.47 ± 1.07% yr(-1) in warm season (June-September) is less than the trend of 5.03 ± 1.92% yr(-1) in cool season (October-May). The regional annual emission trends decrease from 4.76 ± 1.61% yr(-1) in North China Plain to 3.11 ± 0.98% yr(-1) in Yangtze River Delta and further down to -4.39 ± 1.81% yr(-1) in Pearl River Delta. The annual emission trends of the four largest megacities, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are -0.76 ± 0.29%, 0.69 ± 0.27%, -4.46 ± 1.22%, and -7.18 ± 2.88% yr(-1), considerably lower than the regional averages or surrounding rural regions. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, vehicle emission regulations, and closure or migration of high-emission industries, have significantly reduced or even reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions, but their effects are not as significant in other major cities or less economically developed regions.

  8. Trends in full-time pharmacists' labor market characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Y C

    2000-01-01

    To provide a historical overview of the pharmacy profession for the past 30 years, using trends in full-time pharmacists' labor market characteristics. A retrospective longitudinal sample of pharmacists from 1968 to 1996 was constructed from the March Current Population Survey data. A three-period centered moving average method was used to describe the labor market trends over time. Pharmacists' labor market was characterized by age, sex, race, education, geographic distribution, salary, working hours, and wage. The dominant age group among full-time pharmacists was 36-45 in the late 1960s and early 1970s, 26-35 between the mid-1970's and early 1990's, and 36-45 in the mid-1990's. Historically, a significant proportion of full-time pharmacists were white men, holding bachelor's degrees. The number of pharmacists has been highest in the South and lowest in the West. In general, pharmacists' annual salary and wage rates have grown steadily, whereas average hours worked per week have decreased from 50 hours to less than 45. Findings suggest a growing trend of three demographic groups: aged 36-45, women, and nonwhite. In addition, an increasing proportion of pharmacists holding "higher than bachelor" degrees was observed. The distribution of pharmacists was highest in the South and lowest in the West. The Midwest has the highest pharmacist/population ratio, the South the lowest. On average, full-time pharmacists in the 1990s work 40-45 hours per week, have an annual salary higher than $55,000 (in 1996 dollars), and an hourly wage rate above $25.

  9. Carotid endarterectomy and carotid artery stenting utilization trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skerritt, Matthew R; Block, Robert C; Pearson, Thomas A; Young, Kate C

    2012-03-29

    Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been the standard in atherosclerotic stroke prevention for over 2 decades. More recently, carotid artery stenting (CAS) has emerged as a less invasive alternative for revascularization. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether an increase in stenting parallels a decrease in endarterectomy, if there are specific patient factors that influence one intervention over the other, and how these factors may have changed over time. Using a nationally representative sample of US hospital discharge records, data on CEA and CAS procedures performed from 1998 to 2008 were obtained. In total, 253,651 cases of CEA and CAS were investigated for trends in utilization over time. The specific data elements of age, gender, payer source, and race were analyzed for change over the study period, and their association with type of intervention was examined by multiple logistic regression analysis. Rates of intervention decreased from 1998 to 2008 (P use displayed a significant downward trend (P use over the study period (P time, the proportion of white patients who received intervention decreased significantly (P gender, white race, and earlier in the study period were significant positive predictors of CEA use. Rates of carotid revascularization have decreased over time, although this has been the result of a reduction in CEA despite an overall increase in CAS. Among the specific patient factors analyzed, age, gender, race, and time were significantly associated with the utilization of these two interventions.

  10. Epidemiological trends and geographic variation in hospital admissions for diverticulitis in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Geoffrey C; Sam, Justina; Anand, Nitasha

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To characterize the increasing incidence and geographic variation of acute diverticulitis. METHODS: Using the nationwide inpatient sample (NIS) we identified a cohort who had been admitted with diverticulitis between 1998 and 2005. We calculated age-, sex-, and region-specific rates of hospitalizations for diverticulitis over time. RESULTS: The age-adjusted hospitalization rate for diverticulitis increased from 61.8 per 100 000 to 75.5 per 100 000 between 1998 and 2005, and increased similarly in both sexes. Diverticulitis-associated admissions were male-predominant in those younger than age 45 years but were female-predominant thereafter. Admission rates increased the most among those diverticulitis-associated hospitalizations were lower in the West (50.4/100 000) compared to the Northeast (77.7/100 000), South (73.9/100 000), and Midwest (71.0/100 000). CONCLUSION: Diverticulitis-associated hospitalizations have steeply risen, especially in young adults. These epidemiological trends vary by geographic region and warrant further investigation into potential dietary and environmental etiologies. PMID:21472127

  11. Trends and Variations of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux: Results from GSSTF2c Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Si; Chiu, Long S.; Shie, Chung-Lin

    2013-01-01

    Trends and variations of Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) version 2c (GSSTF2c) latent heat flux (LHF) are examined. This version of LHF takes account of the correction in Earth incidence angle. The trend of global mean LHF for GSSTF2c is much reduced relative to GSSTF version 2b Set 1 and Set 2 for the same period 1988-2008. Temporal increase of GSSTF2c LHF in the two decades is 11.0%, in which 3.1%, 5.8%, and 2.1% are attributed to the increase in wind, the increase in sea surface saturated air humidity, and the decrease in near-surface air humidity, respectively. The first empirical orthogonal function of LHF is a conventional El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. However, the trends in LHF are independent of conventional ENSO phenomena. After removing ENSO signal, the pattern of LHF trends is primarily determined by the pattern of air-sea humidity difference trends.

  12. Estimating trends in atmospheric water vapor and temperature time series over Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshawaf, Fadwa; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Wickert, Jens

    2017-08-01

    Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists have used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research. In this work, we compare the temporal trends estimated from GNSS time series with those estimated from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements. We aim to evaluate climate evolution in Germany by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: (1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, (2) inferred from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and (3) determined based on daily in situ measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other relevant atmospheric parameters are available from surface measurements of meteorological stations or derived from ERA-Interim. The trends are estimated using two methods: the first applies least squares to deseasonalized time series and the second uses the Theil-Sen estimator. The trends estimated at 113 GNSS sites, with 10 to 19 years temporal coverage, vary between -1.5 and 2.3 mm decade-1 with standard deviations below 0.25 mm decade-1. These results were validated by estimating the trends from ERA-Interim data over the same time windows, which show similar values. These values of the trend depend on the length and the variations of the time series. Therefore, to give a mean value of the PWV trend over Germany, we estimated the trends using ERA-Interim spanning from 1991 to 2016 (26 years) at 227 synoptic stations over Germany. The ERA-Interim data show positive PWV trends of 0.33 ± 0.06 mm decade-1 with standard errors below 0.03 mm decade-1. The increment in PWV varies between 4.5 and 6.5 % per degree Celsius rise in temperature, which is comparable to the theoretical rate of the Clausius

  13. Qualitative time trend analysis of ground water monitoring networks : An example from The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frapporti, G; Vriend, S P; van Gaans, P F

    1994-03-01

    NH4, most trends in these compounds disappeared. In some water types trends for alkalinity, apparent trends for pH, Ec, and total-P are caused by variations in the laboratory practice, e.g. varying storage procedures, leading to erroneous analyses. Other parameters showed statistically significant trends, related to geochemical processes.The most interesting and most substantial trends are observed in the water type characterized by infiltrating rainwater with agricultural pollutants. In this water type the lowering ground water table induces lower rates of evapotranspiration, giving lower concentrations in time of conservative parameters (Cl, Na, Ca). The aerated zone is enlarged, resulting in increased oxidation of organic material, less efficient nutrient (NO3, K) uptake by plant roots, leading to increased ground water concentrations of nutrients. In other water types trends are quantitatively small. However, trends are not necessarily linear, and all should be closely monitored in future.

  14. Intraindividual variation and short-term temporal trend in DNA methylation of human blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shvetsov, Yurii B; Song, Min-Ae; Cai, Qiuyin; Tiirikainen, Maarit; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Yu, Herbert

    2015-03-01

    Between- and within-person variation in DNA methylation levels are important parameters to be considered in epigenome-wide association studies. Temporal change is one source of within-person variation in DNA methylation that has been linked to aging and disease. We analyzed CpG-site-specific intraindividual variation and short-term temporal trend in leukocyte DNA methylation among 24 healthy Chinese women, with blood samples drawn at study entry and after 9 months. Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip was used to measure methylation. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and trend estimates were summarized by genomic location and probe type. The median ICC was 0.36 across nonsex chromosomes and 0.80 on the X chromosome. There was little difference in ICC profiles by genomic region and probe type. Among CpG loci with high variability between participants, more than 99% had ICC > 0.8. Statistically significant trend was observed in 10.9% CpG loci before adjustment for cell-type composition and in 3.4% loci after adjustment. For CpG loci differentially methylated across subjects, methylation levels can be reliably assessed with one blood sample. More samples per subject are needed for low-variability and unmethylated loci. Temporal changes are largely driven by changes in cell-type composition of blood samples, but temporal trend unrelated to cell types is detected in a small percentage of CpG sites. This study shows that one measurement can reliably assess methylation of differentially methylated CpG loci. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(3); 490-7. ©2014 AACR. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  15. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Huang, Norden E. [National Central University, Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis Center, Chungli (China); Wallace, John M.; Smoliak, Brian V. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States); Chen, Xianyao [State Oceanic Administration, The First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao (China)

    2011-08-15

    The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal ({proportional_to}65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since {proportional_to}1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability. (orig.)

  16. MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

    Science.gov (United States)

    The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

  17. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  18. Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Are, Chandrakanth; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Croo, Darren; Clarey, Dillon; Smith, Lynette; Price, Ray R; Butte, Jean M; Gupta, Sameer; Chaturvedi, Arun; Chowdhury, Sanjib

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Cancer burden in slovenia with the time trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadnik, Vesna; Primic Zakelj, Maja; Lokar, Katarina; Jarm, Katja; Ivanus, Urska; Zagar, Tina

    2017-03-01

    The aim of our study was to describe cancer burden and time trends of all cancers combined, the most frequent as well as the rare cancers in Slovenia. The principal data source was the population-based Cancer Registry of Republic of Slovenia. The cancer burden is presented by incidence and prevalence for the period 1950-2013 and by mortality for years 1985-2013. The time trends were characterized in terms of an average annual percent change estimated by the log-linear joinpoint regression. The Dyba-Hakulinen method was used for estimation of incidence in 2016 and the projections of cancer incidence for the year 2025 were calculated applying the Globocan projection software. In recent years, near 14,000 Slovenes were diagnosed with cancer per year and just over 6,000 died; more than 94,000 people who were ever diagnosed with cancer are currently living among us. The total burden of cancer is dominated by five most common cancer sites: skin (non-melanoma), colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate, together representing almost 60% of all new cancer cases. On average the incidence of common cancers in Slovenia is increasing for 3.0% per year in last decade, but the incidence of rare cancers is stable. Because cancer occurs more among the elderly, and additionally more numerous post-war generation is entering this age group, it is expected that the burden of this disease will be growing further, even if the level of risk factors remains the same as today.

  20. Direct Observations of PMC Local Time Variations by Aura OMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLand, Matthew T.; Shettle, Eric P.; Thomas, Gary E.; Olivero, John J.

    2010-01-01

    The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite obtains unique measurements for polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) analysis. Its wide cross-track viewing swath and high along-track spatial resolution makes it possible to directly evaluate PMC occurrence frequency and brightness variations between 6S" and 8S' latitude as a function of local time over a 12-14 h continuous period. OMI PMC local time variations are closely coupled to concurrent variations in measurement scattering angle, so that ice phase function effects must be considered when interpreting the observations. Two different phase functions corresponding to bright and faint clouds are examined in this analysis. OMI observations show maximum frequency and albedo values at 8-10 h local time in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreasing amplitude at higher latitudes. Southern Hemisphere values reach a minimum at 18-20 h LT. Larger variations are seen in Northern Hemisphere data. No statistically significant longitudinal dependence was seen.

  1. Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branum, Amy M; Ahrens, Katherine A

    2017-04-01

    Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15-44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks' gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990-2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990-2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes.

  2. Global trends in vegetation phenology from 32-year GEOV1 leaf area index time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verger, Aleixandre; Baret, Frédéric; Weiss, Marie; Filella, Iolanda; Peñuelas, Josep

    2013-04-01

    Phenology is a critical component in understanding ecosystem response to climate variability. Long term data records from global mapping satellite platforms are valuable tools for monitoring vegetation responses to climate change at the global scale. Phenology satellite products and trend detection from satellite time series are expected to contribute to improve our understanding of climate forcing on vegetation dynamics. The capacity of monitoring ecosystem responses to global climate change was evaluated in this study from the 32-year time series of global Leaf Area Index (LAI) which have been recently produced within the geoland2 project. The long term GEOV1 LAI products were derived from NOAA/AVHRR (1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT (1999 to the present) with specific emphasis on consistency and continuity. Since mid-November, GEOV1 LAI products are freely available to the scientific community at geoland2 portal (www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html). These products are distributed at a dekadal time step for the period 1981-2000 and 2000-2012 at 0.05° and 1/112°, respectively. The use of GEOV1 data covering a long time period and providing information at dense time steps are expected to increase the reliability of trend detection. In this study, GEOV1 LAI time series aggregated at 0.5° spatial resolution are used. The CACAO (Consistent Adjustment of the Climatology to Actual Observations) method (Verger et al, 2013) was applied to characterize seasonal anomalies as well as identify trends. For a given pixel, CACAO computes, for each season, the time shift and the amplitude difference between the current temporal profile and the climatology computed over the 32 years. These CACAO parameters allow quantifying shifts in the timing of seasonal phenology and inter-annual variations in magnitude as compared to the average climatology. Interannual variations in the timing of the Start of Season and End of Season, Season Length and LAI level in the peak of the

  3. The method of trend analysis of parameters time series of gas-turbine engine state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hvozdeva, I.; Myrhorod, V.; Derenh, Y.

    2017-10-01

    This research substantiates an approach to interval estimation of time series trend component. The well-known methods of spectral and trend analysis are used for multidimensional data arrays. The interval estimation of trend component is proposed for the time series whose autocorrelation matrix possesses a prevailing eigenvalue. The properties of time series autocorrelation matrix are identified.

  4. Genetic architecture of flowering time variation in Brachypodium distachyon

    Science.gov (United States)

    The transition to reproductive development is a crucial step of a plant’s life cycle, and the timing of this transition is an important factor in crop yields. Here, we report new insights into the genetic control of natural variation in flowering time in Brachypodium distachyon, a non-domesticated c...

  5. [Variation trends of the vegetations in distribution region of Amur tiger based on MODIS NDVI].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua-Ru; Wang, Tian-Ming; Ge, Han-Ping

    2012-10-01

    By using the averaged 250 m MODIS NDVI data in growth seasons of 2000-2010 and the approach of ordinary linear regression, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the vegetations in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica), the Far East region of Russia and the eastern part of Northeast China, as well as the relationships between these variation trends and the anthropogenic activities. In 2000 - 2010, the areas with significantly decreased NDVI were sparsely distributed and accounted for 9.6% of the total, while the areas with significantly increased NDVI were mainly concentrated in the central part of northern Russia Far East Region and only accounted for 0.5% of the total. The percentage of the areas with significantly decreased NDVI in the distribution region of Amur tiger was slightly higher than that in the whole study region. The areas with significantly decreased NDVI were mainly distributed in the places of low elevation, gentle slope, and close to roads/railroads. The number of the pixels with significantly decreased NDVI increased with the increase of the nearest distance to residential locations first, and then decreased gradually. The significant decrease of the NDVI was closely related to the anthropogenic activities, and thus, to adopt effective measures to reduce human disturbances could control the vegetation degradation, and further, provide sustainable basis for the protection of Amur tiger and the conservation of the biodiversity in the studied region.

  6. Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Mark D.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    2012-01-01

    Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

  7. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  8. Variations in the Gender Ratio of Multiple Sclerosis Linked to Converging Smoking Trends in Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacios, Natalia; Alonso, Alvaro; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    [S40.001] Variations in the Gender Ratio of Multiple Sclerosis Linked to Converging Smoking Trends in Men and Women Natalia Palacios, Boston, MA, Alvaro Alonso, Minneapolis, MN, Henrik Bronnum-Hansen, Coppenhagen, Denmark, Alberto Ascherio, Boston, MA OBJECTIVE: To examine if a time...... in male and female smoking rates. During the same time period, an increase in the female to male ratio in MS incidence has been reported. We examined whether MS incidence in the two genders changed concomitantly with smoking, as would be expected if smoking truly increased MS risk. DESIGN/METHODS: We...... identified relevant studies reporting male and female age-specific incidence of MS throughout the world using within-country birth cohorts as units of observation. For each country and birth cohort, we then estimated the male to female ratio in MS incidence, and correlated these ratios with the corresponding...

  9. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  10. Nutrient trends through time in Sweden's Baltic Drainage Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Destouni, G.; Prieto, C.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in climate and land-use have and will continue to modify regional hydrology, in turn impacting environmental health, agricultural productivity and water resource quality and availability. The Baltic region is an area of interest as the coast spans nine countries- serving over 100 million people. The Baltic Sea contains one of the largest human caused hypoxic dead zones due to eutrophication driven by anthropogenic excess loading of nutrients. Policies to reduce these loads include also international directives and agreements, such as the EU Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000 to protect and improve water quality throughout the European Union, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan under the Helsinki Commission aimed specifically at reducing the nutrient loading to and mitigating the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In light of these policies and amidst the number of studies on the Baltic Sea we ask, using the accessible nutrient and discharge data what does nutrient loading look like today? Are the most excessive loads going down? Observed nutrient and flow time series across Sweden allow for answering these questions, by spatial and temporal trend analysis of loads from various parts of Sweden to the Baltic Sea. Analyzing these observed time series in conjunction with the ecological health status classifications of the EU Water Framework Directive, allows in particular for answering the question if the loads into the water bodies with the poorest water quality, and from those to the Baltic Sea, are improving, being maintained or deteriorating. Such insight is required to contribute to relevant and efficient water and nutrient load management. Furthermore, empirically calculating nutrient loads, rather than only modeling, reveals that the water body health classification may not reflect what water bodies actually contribute the heaviest loads to the Baltic Sea. This work also underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis of all available data from

  11. Geographic variation in trends and characteristics of teen childbearing among American Indians and Alaska Natives, 1990-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingo, Phyllis A; Lesesne, Catherine A; Smith, Ruben A; de Ravello, Lori; Espey, David K; Arambula Solomon, Teshia G; Tucker, Myra; Thierry, Judith

    2012-12-01

    To study teen birth rates, trends, and socio-demographic and pregnancy characteristics of AI/AN across geographic regions in the US. The birth rate for US teenagers 15-19 years reached a historic low in 2009 (39.1 per 1,000) and yet remains one of the highest teen birth rates among industrialized nations. In the US, teen birth rates among Hispanic, non-Hispanic black, and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) youth are consistently two to three times the rate among non-Hispanic white teens. Birth certificate data for females younger than age 20 were used to calculate birth rates (live births per 1,000 women) and joinpoint regression to describe trends in teen birth rates by age (teens varied across geographic regions. Among 15-19-year-old AI/AN, rates ranged from 24.35 (California) to 123.24 (Aberdeen). AI/AN teen birth rates declined from the early 1990s into the 2000s for all three age groups. Among 15-17-year-olds, trends were approximately level during the early 2000s-2007 in six regions and declined in the others. Among 18-19-year-olds, trends were significantly increasing during the early 2000s-2007 in three regions, significantly decreasing in one, and were level in the remaining regions. Among AI/AN, cesarean section rates were lower in Alaska (4.1%) than in other regions (16.4-26.6%). This is the first national study to describe regional variation in AI/AN teen birth rates. These data may be used to target limited resources for teen pregnancy intervention programs and guide research.

  12. Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jia; Liao, Hong; Mao, Yuhao; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Hui

    2017-03-01

    We examine the past and future changes in the O3 outflow from East Asia using a global 3-D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986-2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000-2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The evaluation of the model results against measurements shows that the GEOS-Chem model captures the seasonal cycles and interannual variations of tropospheric O3 concentrations fairly well with high correlation coefficients of 0.82-0.93 at four ground-based sites and 0.55-0.88 at two ozonesonde sites where observations are available. The increasing trends in surface-layer O3 concentrations in East Asia over the past 2 decades are captured by the model, although the modeled O3 trends have low biases. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied from 1986-2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a statistically insignificant decadal trend; however, they showed large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal values of 4-9 % for the absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) and an annual APDM value of 3.3 %. The sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by variations in the meteorological conditions. The variations in meteorological parameters drove the IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes by altering the O3 concentrations over East Asia and by altering the zonal winds; the latter was identified to be the key factor, since the O3 outflow was highly correlated with zonal winds from 1986-2006. The simulations of the 2000-2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0, 7.9, and

  13. Geographical variation in glaucoma prescribing trends in England 2008–2012: an observational ecological study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wormald, Richard; Khaw, Peng Tee

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To explore (1) the national trend in population-adjusted prescription rates for glaucoma and ocular hypertension (OHT) in England and (2) any geographical variation in glaucoma/OHT prescribing trends and its association with established risk factors for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) at the population level. Design Observational ecological study. Setting Primary care in England 2008–2012. Participants All patients who received 1 or more of the 37 778 660 glaucoma/OHT prescription items between 2008 and 2012. Primary and secondary outcome measure methods Glaucoma/OHT prescription statistics for England and its constituent primary care trusts (PCTs) between 2008 and 2012 were divided by annual population estimates to give prescription rates per 100 000 population aged ≥40 years. To examine regional differences, prescription rates and the change in prescription rates between 2008 and 2012 for PCTs were separately entered into multivariable linear regression models with the population proportion aged ≥60 years; the proportion of males; the proportion of West African Diaspora (WAD) ethnicity; PCT funding per capita; Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 score and its domains. Results Between 2008 and 2012, glaucoma/OHT prescriptions increased from 28 029 to 31 309 items per 100 000 population aged ≥40 years. Between PCTs, nearly a quarter of the variation in prescription rates in 2008 and 2012 could be attributed to age, WAD ethnicity and male gender. The change in prescription rates between 2008 and 2012 was only modestly correlated with age (p=0.003, β=0.234), and income deprivation (p=0.035, β=−0.168). Conclusions Increased population-adjusted glaucoma/OHT prescription rates in the study period were likely due to increased detection of POAG and OHT cases at risk of POAG. Between PCTs, regional variation in overall prescription rates was partly attributable to demographic risk factors for POAG, although the change in

  14. The role of low-frequency variation in the manifestation of warming trend and ENSO amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Sae-Rim; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Kim, WonMoo

    2017-08-01

    Despite the increase in greenhouse gas concentration, the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific during the period of 1999-2014 exhibits less warming trend compared to the earlier decades. It has been noted that this warming hiatus is accompanied by a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which represents low-frequency variability over the Pacific. On the other hand, the 2015/2016 El Niño is among the strongest comparable to the 1997/1998 event, which coincides with the recently altered PDO phase from negative to positive. These observational evidences have generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variations in modulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude as well as manifestation of warming signal in the tropical Pacific. Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming signal from SST records. Here, we present three primary modes of global SST that include secular warming trend, low-frequency variability, and biennial oscillation. Based on the independent behavior of these three modes, global warming is clearly continuing but its manifestation is enhanced (depressed) when the low-frequency variation is in the positive (negative) phase. Further, possibility of strong El Niño increases under the positive phase of the low-frequency mode, which amplifies warming over the tropical eastern Pacific. Indeed, the strong 2015/2016 El Niño is largely attributed to the positive phase of the low-frequency mode. In order to examine the climate models' ability to simulate the three SST modes as obtained in the observational record, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets are also analyzed. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the three modes have been replicated closely by the selected CMIP5 models forced by the historical condition, which provides an analogy of the interplay of three modes in the observed tropical Pacific SST.

  15. Variability and trends of carbon parameters at a time series in the eastern tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Lefèvre

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Hourly fCO2 is recorded at a time series at the PIRATA buoy located at 6°S 10°W in the eastern tropical Atlantic since June 2006. This site is located south and west of the seasonal Atlantic cold tongue and is affected by its propagation from June to September. Using an alkalinity–salinity relationship determined for the eastern tropical Atlantic and the observed fCO2, pH and the inorganic carbon concentration are calculated. The time series is investigated to explore the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales for these parameters, and to detect any long-term trends. At intraseasonal timescales, fCO2 and pH are strongly correlated. On seasonal timescales, the correlation still holds between fCO2 and pH and their variations are in agreement with those of sea surface salinity. At interannual timescales, some important differences appear in 2011–2012: lower fCO2 and fluxes are observed from September to December 2011 and are explained by higher advection of salty waters at the mooring, in agreement with the wind. In early 2012, the anomaly is still present and associated with lower sea surface temperatures. No significant long-term trend is detected over the period 2006–2013 on CO2 and any other physical parameter. However, as atmospheric fCO2 is increasing over time, the outgassing of CO2 is reduced over the period 2006–2013 as the flux is mainly controlled by the difference of fCO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere. A longer time series is required to determine if any significant trend exists in this region.

  16. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  17. High order variational solutions of time dependent neutron transport problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, B.C.

    1985-01-01

    High order numerical solutions of the time-dependent one speed neutron transport equation are developed using cubic hermite polynomial trial functions, variational techniques, and exponential matrix operators. Two new numerical solutions are developed that are high order with respect to both time and space variables. In the first method, the time-dependent P/sub N/ equations are transformed into Generalized Telegrapher's Equations (GTE) that are valid for any order P/sub N/ approximation. The Generalized Telegrapher's Equations form a coupled set of second order differential equations with respect to both time and space. In the second method, the time-dependent P/sub N/ equations are transformed into coupled Transport Diffusion Equations (TDE), keeping the additional terms that maintain the transport nature of the solution. The Transport Diffusion Equations are first order in time and second order in space. Numerically evaluated time-dependent analytic solutions are also developed for homogeneous media transport problems in the P/sub 1/ and P/sub 3/ approximations via Laplace Transforms in order to validate the variational GTE and TDE solutions. The analytic solutions allow anisotropic scattering, up to the appropriate P/sub N/ order. The analytic solutions are not limited to the non-precise extrapolation boundary condition, like many time-dependent analytic P/sub N/ solutions, but allow any of the standard transport vacuum boundary condition approximations.

  18. National Trends and Geographic Variation in Availability of Home Health Care: 2002–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Fine, Jonathan; Pandolfi, Michelle M; Gao, Yan; Liu, Fanglin; Eckenrode, Sheila; Lichtman, Judith H

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate national trends and geographic variation in the availability of home health care from 2002–2015 and identify county-specific characteristics associated with home health care. Design Observational study Setting All counties in the United States Participants All Medicare-certified home health agencies included in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Home Health Compare system. Measurements County-specific availability of home health care, defined as the number of available home health agencies that provided services to a given county per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years. Results The study included 15,184 Medicare-certified home health agencies that served 97% of U.S. ZIP codes. Between 2002–2003 and 2014–2015, the county-specific number of available home health agencies per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years increased from 14.7 to 21.8 and the median (inter-quartile range) population that was serviced by at least one home health agency increased from 403,605 (890,329) to 455,488 (1,039,328). Considerable geographic variation in the availability of home health care was observed. The West, North-East, and South Atlantic regions had lower home health care availability than the Central regions, and this pattern persisted over the study period. Counties with higher median income, a larger senior population, higher rates of households without a car and low access to stores, more obesity, greater inactivity, and higher proportions of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic populations were more likely to have higher availability of home health care. Conclusion The availability of home health care increased nationwide during the study period, but there was much geographic variation. PMID:28322441

  19. National Trends and Geographic Variation in Availability of Home Health Care: 2002-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Fine, Jonathan; Pandolfi, Michelle M; Gao, Yan; Liu, Fanglin; Eckenrode, Sheila; Lichtman, Judith H

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate national trends and geographic variation in the availability of home health care from 2002 to 2015 and identify county-specific characteristics associated with home health care. Observational study. All counties in the United States. All Medicare-certified home health agencies included in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Home Health Compare system. County-specific availability of home health care, defined as the number of available home health agencies that provided services to a given county per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years. The study included 15,184 Medicare-certified home health agencies that served 97% of U.S. ZIP codes. Between 2002-2003 and 2014-2015, the county-specific number of available home health agencies per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years increased from 14.7 to 21.8 and the median (inter-quartile range) population that was serviced by at least one home health agency increased from 403,605 (890,329) to 455,488 (1,039,328). Considerable geographic variation in the availability of home health care was observed. The West, North East, and South Atlantic regions had lower home health care availability than the Central regions, and this pattern persisted over the study period. Counties with higher median income, a larger senior population, higher rates of households without a car and low access to stores, more obesity, greater inactivity, and higher proportions of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic populations were more likely to have higher availability of home health care. The availability of home health care increased nationwide during the study period, but there was much geographic variation. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Time variation of radon daughters concentration in snowfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishikawa, T; Aoki, M; Okabe, S

    1984-05-01

    Time variation of radon daughters concentration in snowfall was measured continuously. The relations of radon daughters concentration in snowfall to the precipitation and to atmospheric radon daughters concentration were investigated. It has become clear that when precipitation is small, radon daughters concentration in snowfall is distributed in a wide range, and that the quantity of radon daughters brought to ground surface by snowfall is proportional to precipitation. Washout effect of the snowfall on atmospheric radon daughters was also investigated.

  1. Variation and Trends of Landscape Dynamics, Land Surface Phenology and Net Primary Production of the Appalachian Mountains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yeqiao; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhou, Yuyu; Zhang, Hongyan

    2012-12-15

    The gradients of the Appalachian Mountains in elevations and latitudes provide a unique regional perspective of landscape variations in the eastern United States and a section of the southeastern Canada. This study reveals patterns and trends of landscape dynamics, land surface phenology and ecosystem production along the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and AVHRR Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM) datasets. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), length of growing season (LOS) and net primary production (NPP) of selected ecoregions along the Appalachian Mountains regions. We compared the results out of the Appalachian Mountains regions in different spatial contexts including the North America and the Appalachian Trail corridor area. To reveal latitudinal variations we analyzed data and compared the results between 30°N-40°N and 40°N-50°N latitudes. The result revealed significant decreases in annual peak NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains regions. The trend for the Appalachian Mountains regions was -0.0018 (R2=0.55, P<0.0001) NDVI unit decrease per year during 25 years between 1982 and 2006. The LOS had prolonged 0.3 day yr-1 during 25 years over the Appalachian Mountains regions. The NPP increased by 2.68 gC m-2yr-2 in Appalachian Mountains regions from 1981 to 2000. The comparison with the North America reveals the effects of topography and ecosystem compositions of the Appalachian Mountains. The comparison with the Appalachian Trail corridor area provides a regional mega-transect view of the measured variables.

  2. Decadal trends in the diurnal variation of galactic cosmic rays observed using neutron monitor data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Simon [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.; Owens, Mathew; Lockwood, Mike [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Owen, Chris [Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.

    2017-10-01

    The diurnal variation (DV) in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is a widely observed phenomenon in neutron monitor data. The background variation considered primarily in this study is due to the balance between the convection of energetic particles away from the Sun and the inward diffusion of energetic particles along magnetic field lines. However, there are also times of enhanced DV following geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions. In this study we investigate changes in the DV over four solar cycles using ground-based neutron monitors at different magnetic latitudes and longitudes at Earth. We divide all of the hourly neutron monitor data into magnetic polarity cycles to investigate cycle-to-cycle variations in the phase and amplitude of the DV. The results show, in general, a similarity between each of the A<0 cycles and A>0 cycles, but with a phase change between the two. To investigate this further, we split the neutron monitor data by solar magnetic polarity between times when the dominant polarity was either directed outward (positive) or inward (negative) at the northern solar pole. We find that the maxima and minima of the DV changes by, typically, 1-2 h between the two polarity states for all non-polar neutron monitors. This difference between cycles becomes even larger in amplitude and phase with the removal of periods with enhanced DV caused by solar wind transients. The time difference between polarity cycles is found to vary in a 22-year cycle for both the maximum and minimum times of the DV. The times of the maximum and minimum in the DV do not always vary in the same manner between A>0 and A<0 polarity cycles, suggesting a slight change in the anisotropy vector of GCRs arriving at Earth between polarity cycles. Polar neutron monitors show differences in phase between polarity cycles which have asymptotic directions at mid-to-high latitudes. All neutron monitors show changes in the amplitude of the

  3. The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muslih, Khamis Daham; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

    2017-10-01

    Mean annual and monthly averages of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature from seven stations in Iraq were analysed to detect the inter-annual variation, long-term temporal and spatial trends distribution over the period 1941-2013. Due to non-homogeneous problems, this period has been divided into two short separated periods (1941-1980 and 1995-2013), in order to compute temperature trends. In this context two statistical tests were used: linear regression and Mann-Kendall. The time series of mean annual temperature indicate the current warming period over Iraq identical with the global warming, which has started since the middle of seventh decade of the last century. The 2010 was the warmest year in all stations. Three distinct inter-annual temperature variation patterns were observed. These were probably the effects of micro-scale and meso-scale factors. The first one represents central and northern Iraq. The second represents the south of Iraq and Kirkuk station and the third one is a characteristic for eastern Iraq. Temperature trend analysis revealed that there are general upward trends with the strongest warming trends identified in the summer months which are around 89 % of the total significant monthly trends. Spatially, in both periods the southern region of Iraq is most affected by the warming trend in Tmean and Tmax. When considering Tmin, the southern and northern regions both are affected by warming with more pronounced trend intensity in the northern stations. No significant trend occurs Hai station in both periods and Baghdad has the still less trend value. In the first period the highest rise of Tmean and Tmax values are observed in July and June in Nasiriya station at 0.61 °C/decade and 0.63 °C/decade, respectively and in Mosul station for Tmin in August is 1.41 °C/decade. Moreover, in the period from 1995 to 2013, the highest warming trend of Tmean and Tmax were in Hai station for March at 1.48 °C/decade and at 1.85

  4. Age and gender variations in trend of road traffic fatalities in Manipal, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanchan, Tanuj; Menezes, Ritesh G; Bakkannavar, Shankar M

    2010-10-01

    The incidence of road traffic fatalities has been increasing at an alarming rate and is a global cause for concern. To assess the age- and gender-based variations in the pattern of road traffic fatalities in Manipal, southern India and to provide an epidemiological profile of the population at risk. Registry-based retrospective research on road traffic fatalities in Manipal, extending from 1994 to 2009, was conducted at the Department of Forensic Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal. The data were collected from the autopsy files and information furnished by the police in the inquest papers. Road traffic fatalities were analysed, keeping the gender and age of the victim as co-variables. Road traffic fatalities constituted the majority of autopsied cases (38.6%) and unnatural deaths (37.8%). Percentage share of road traffic fatalities with regard to unnatural deaths in Manipal did not show a definite trend during the last 16 years. Male preponderance was quite evident, male-female ratio being 7.2:1. Male mortality pattern peaked during the third decade followed by a gradual decline, whereas the mortality pattern among women was almost uniform from second to seventh decade. Overall, people in their third decade were most prone to road traffic fatalities (26.9%), a trend similar to that of male mortalities. The overall pattern of road traffic fatalities was quite similar to those in other parts of India and the world. The global problem with regard to road traffic fatalities remains the same irrespective of the difference in topography and demography of the region.

  5. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2017-01-01

    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  6. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2017-05-01

    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  7. Flowering Time Gene Variation in Brassica Species Shows Evolutionary Principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiessl, Sarah V; Huettel, Bruno; Kuehn, Diana; Reinhardt, Richard; Snowdon, Rod J

    2017-01-01

    Flowering time genes have a strong influence on successful reproduction and life cycle adaptation. However, their regulation is highly complex and only well understood in diploid model systems. For crops with a polyploid background from the genus Brassica, data on flowering time gene variation are scarce, although indispensable for modern breeding techniques like marker-assisted breeding. We have deep-sequenced all paralogs of 35 Arabidopsis thaliana flowering regulators using Sequence Capture followed by Illumina sequencing in two selected accessions of the vegetable species Brassica rapa and Brassica oleracea, respectively. Using these data, we were able to call SNPs, InDels and copy number variations (CNVs) for genes from the total flowering time network including central flowering regulators, but also genes from the vernalisation pathway, the photoperiod pathway, temperature regulation, the circadian clock and the downstream effectors. Comparing the results to a complementary data set from the allotetraploid species Brassica napus, we detected rearrangements in B. napus which probably occurred early after the allopolyploidisation event. Those data are both a valuable resource for flowering time research in those vegetable species, as well as a contribution to speciation genetics.

  8. Flowering Time Gene Variation in Brassica Species Shows Evolutionary Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah V. Schiessl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Flowering time genes have a strong influence on successful reproduction and life cycle adaptation. However, their regulation is highly complex and only well understood in diploid model systems. For crops with a polyploid background from the genus Brassica, data on flowering time gene variation are scarce, although indispensable for modern breeding techniques like marker-assisted breeding. We have deep-sequenced all paralogs of 35 Arabidopsis thaliana flowering regulators using Sequence Capture followed by Illumina sequencing in two selected accessions of the vegetable species Brassica rapa and Brassica oleracea, respectively. Using these data, we were able to call SNPs, InDels and copy number variations (CNVs for genes from the total flowering time network including central flowering regulators, but also genes from the vernalisation pathway, the photoperiod pathway, temperature regulation, the circadian clock and the downstream effectors. Comparing the results to a complementary data set from the allotetraploid species Brassica napus, we detected rearrangements in B. napus which probably occurred early after the allopolyploidisation event. Those data are both a valuable resource for flowering time research in those vegetable species, as well as a contribution to speciation genetics.

  9. Time trends of child development in a Jerusalem community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gofin, R; Adler, B; Palti, H

    1996-04-01

    The study of the Development Quotient (DQ-according to the Brunet-Lezine test) of two-year-olds living in a geographically defined area in Western Jerusalem was carried out for the birth cohorts of 1971 to 1989 (n = 4314). An 'Early Stimulation' programme was implemented from 1975 through the Mother and Child Health Clinic. The stimulation programme provided mothers with skills to enhance the development of their children through social interaction, play and verbal stimulation from birth to two years of age. The mean DQ at 2 years old increased significantly from 104.6 (SD = 9.8) for the 1972 cohort to 108.9 (SD = 9.1) for those born in 1989. Coordination and posture subscores followed the trends of the total DQ while the trends in language development were less marked. There is indication that children whose mothers had 9-11 years of schooling benefited more than other children. Better achievement on the developmental test as expressed in the mean DQ was probably related to changing socio-demographic characteristics of the population, and the implementation of the 'Early Stimulation' programme. The widening gap of the DQ after an initial decrease among children whose mothers had < or = 8 years of schooling and those in higher educational groups during the 80s may have been caused by the fact that the latter are a very disadvantaged group of families compared with the rest of the population.

  10. Geographical variation and sexual differences of body length and age composition in Rana temporaria: the ontogenetic development and phenotypic trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyapkov Sergey

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of literature data on the mean values of age and body length of adult individuals of widespread species Rana temporaria from about 70 spatially separated populations, including our published data, was conducted. The evident trend in population mean age increase with the decrease of the of activity season length was revealed as well as the absence of that trend in the mean body length, with the maximal mean value in body length being near central part of the range. Our explanation of non-linear trend in the mean values of body length does not contradict other models of geographic variability explaining the correspondence and discrepance with the Bergman rule. In addition our explanation corresponds to the revealed features of interpopulation variation in growth rate. The revealed trend of variation in the mean body length is resulted from both growth rate decrease and mean age increase with the decrease in the length of activity season. The relatively low mean values of body length in populations from south and southern-west borders of the range are explained not only by low mean age but by lower growth rate despite high length of activity season. The interpopulation variation in body length is determined not only by body length but by age composition differences both between and within population. Therefore, the direction and intensity of sexual differences have not distinct trends, and the correspondence to Rensch rule (in contrast to Bergman rule is rarely observed.

  11. Variation Trend and Driving Factors of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Chinese Magnesium Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Feng; Liu, Yu; Nie, Zuo-Ren; Gong, Xianzheng; Wang, Zhihong

    2015-11-03

    As the largest magnesium producer in the world, China is facing a great challenge of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. In this paper, the variation trend and driving factors of GHG emissions from Chinese magnesium production were evaluated and the measures of technology and policy for effectively mitigating GHG emissions were provided. First, the energy-related and process-oriented GHG inventory is compiled for magnesium production in China. Then, the driving forces for the changes of the energy-related emission were analyzed by the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition. Results demonstrated that Chinese magnesium output from 2003 to 2013 increased by 125%, whereas GHG emissions only increased by 16%. The emissions caused by the fuels consumption decline most significantly (from 28.4 to 6.6 t CO2eq/t Mg) among all the emission sources. The energy intensity and the energy structure were the main offsetting factors for the increase of GHG emissions, while the scale of production and the international market demand were the main contributors for the total increase. Considering the improvement of technology application and more stringent policy measures, the annual GHG emissions from Chinese primary magnesium production will be controlled within 22 million tons by 2020.

  12. Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

    2014-05-01

    Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

  13. Time expression in Hispano-American variations of Spanish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Mištinová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Not with standing the diffusion of standard Spanish as a multinational and multicultural language, it still shows many differences on all linguistic levels. This is especially true in its vocabulary and phonetics, which reflect more intensively than other levels of the language the characteristics of the various Hispano-American variations. Nevertheless, in both diatopic and diastratic differentiation, the morphosyntactic phenomena that appear, for instance, in the system of grammatical tenses or of pronominal paradigms connected to modes of address addressing people and that off er a series of peculiarities, must not be omitted. Not all phenomena connected to the use of different tenses in Hispano-American variants have been thoroughly examined. The language is also in a process of constant development, so changes do occur. The variability of the Spanish language is the cause of a marked polycentric distinction that impinges upon numerous geolinguistic, sociolinguistic and extralinguistic aspects. Various criteria concerning the category of time in Hispano-American variations are analysed in this paper. They represent the most important questions with regard to pluricentric standards and use of geolinguistic variations, while taking into consideration both the diachronic and synchronic dimensions.

  14. Antidepressant drugs and teenage suicide in Hungary: Time trend and seasonality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otuyelu, Ekundayo; Foldvari, Anett; Szabo, Edit; Sipos, Valeria; Edafiogho, Peter; Szucs, Maria; Dome, Peter; Rihmer, Zoltan; Sandor, Janos

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze the relationship between increasing utilization of antidepressants and lithium, and suicide rate of persons less than 20 years of age in Hungary, with particular regard to seasonal patterns. Time trend analysis was carried out to determine the correlation between antidepressant and lithium prescription patterns in Hungarian persons under age of 20 years as well as seasonal variations within the study period from January 1998 to December 2006. There was a significant correlation (P = 0.03) between the eight-fold increase in antidepressant + lithium prescriptions and decreasing suicides in young Hungarian people under 20 years of age within the study period. Lithium, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and the group of "other antidepressant drugs" rather than nonselective monoamine reuptake inhibitors and monoamine oxidase-A inhibitors were responsible for this association. No significant association could be drawn from seasonal variation with boys (P = 0.964), girls (P = 0.140), or both genders (P = 0.997). Ecological study design. Our findings are in good agreement with large-scale ecological studies showing that the beneficial effect of more widely used antidepressants at a given point could appear on the level of suicide rate of the general population even among patients under the age of 20 years.

  15. Estimating permeability from quasi-static deformation: Temporal variations and arrival time inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasco, D.W.; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio

    2008-05-01

    Transient pressure variations within a reservoir can be treated as a propagating front and analyzed using an asymptotic formulation. From this perspective one can define a pressure 'arrival time' and formulate solutions along trajectories, in the manner of ray theory. We combine this methodology and a technique for mapping overburden deformation into reservoir volume change as a means to estimate reservoir flow properties, such as permeability. Given the entire 'travel time' or phase field, obtained from the deformation data, we can construct the trajectories directly, there-by linearizing the inverse problem. A numerical study indicates that, using this approach, we can infer large-scale variations in flow properties. In an application to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) observations associated with a CO{sub 2} injection at the Krechba field, Algeria, we image pressure propagation to the northwest. An inversion for flow properties indicates a linear trend of high permeability. The high permeability correlates with a northwest trending fault on the flank of the anticline which defines the field.

  16. Seasonal trends and spatial variations of PM10-bounded polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Veneto Region, Northeast Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiol, Mauro; Formenton, Gianni; Pasqualetto, Alberto; Pavoni, Bruno

    2013-11-01

    The Veneto Region extends for ˜18.4·103 km2 in the northeastern part of the Po Valley and includes mountains, hills, plain and coastal environments with very different and discontinuous anthropogenic pressures. Although many efforts have been made to mitigate air pollution, the European air quality standards for atmospheric pollutants are frequently breached. This study investigates the levels of eight PM10-bound PAHs collected in 21 stations categorized as rural background, urban and suburban backgrounds, traffic and industrial hot-spots during one year (2011). Data were statistically processed to detect the PAH seasonal trends, their relationship with other air pollutants and micro-meteorological parameters and the space variations at a regional scale. Results show that PAHs levels are relatively high in the largest part of the region, with 10 sites exceeding the levels of BaP targeted by the European legislation. Two sites exhibited anomalously high PAHs concentrations and this anomaly became even more evident when considering the population density as a surrogate for the potential anthropogenic pressure. The PAHs levels were found directly proportional to other gaseous pollutants (CO, NO, NOx, SO2) suggesting common polluting sources. The analysis of time trends of PAH concentrations reveals significant coincidences throughout the region, i.e. simultaneous changes are observed in most sites as a consequence of similar emission sources and accumulation/removal processes. In this scenario, the control strategies currently imposed at local level (e.g. traffic limitations) have proven scarcely effective in mitigating air pollution and a real coordination at regional or even interregional level cannot be further postponed. Peculiar features of the PAHs pollution in the Veneto were also identified and some measures for protecting the human health were suggested.

  17. A mixed linear model controlling for case underascertainment across multiple cancer registries estimated time trends in survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahm, Stefan; Bertz, Joachim; Barnes, Benjamin; Kraywinkel, Klaus

    2018-01-10

    Large temporal and geographical variation in survival rates estimated from epidemiological cancer registries coupled with heterogeneity in death certificate only (DCO) notifications makes it difficult to interpret trends in survival. The aim of our study is to introduce a method for estimating such trends while accounting for heterogeneity in DCO notifications in a cancer site-specific manner. We used the data of 4.0 million cancer cases notified in 14 German epidemiological cancer registries. Annual 5-year relative survival rates from 2002 through 2013 were estimated, and proportions of DCO notifications were recorded. "DCO-excluded" survival rates were regressed on DCO proportions and calendar years using a mixed linear model with cancer registry as a random effect. Based on this model, trends in survival rates were estimated for Germany at 0% DCO. For most cancer sites and age groups, we estimated significant positive trends in survival. Age-standardized survival for all cancers combined increased by 7.1% units for women and 10.8% units for men. The described method could be used to estimate trends in cancer survival based on the data from epidemiological cancer registries with differing DCO proportions and with changing DCO proportions over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    costs involved in carrying out RNA-seq experiments and difficult conditions of sampling usually resulted in a small sample size and a limited number of time points at which biospecimens are sampled. Standard statistical tests with small sample sizes are untenable for formal tests of signifi- cance. On the other hand, without ...

  19. Multiyear applications of WRF/Chem over continental U.S.: Model evaluation, variation trend, and impacts of boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, Khairunnisa; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

    2015-12-01

    Multiyear applications of an online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model allow an assessment of the variation trends in simulated meteorology, air quality, and their interactions to changes in emissions and meteorology, as well as the impacts of initial and boundary conditions (ICONs/BCONs) on simulated aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions over a period of time. In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry version 3.4.1 (WRF/Chem v. 3.4.1) with the 2005 Carbon Bond mechanism coupled with the Volatility Basis Set module for secondary organic aerosol formation (WRF/Chem-CB05-VBS) is applied for multiple years (2001, 2006, and 2010) over continental U.S. This work also examines the changes in simulated air quality and meteorology due to changes in emissions and meteorology and the model's capability in reproducing the observed variation trends in species concentrations from 2001 to 2010. In addition, the impacts of the chemical ICONs/BCONs on model predictions are analyzed. ICONs/BCONs are downscaled from two global models, the modified Community Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere model version 5.1 (CESM/CAM v5.1) and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate model (MACC). The evaluation of WRF/Chem-CB05-VBS simulations with the CESM ICONs/BCONs for 2001, 2006, and 2010 shows that temperature at 2 m (T2) is underpredicted for all three years likely due to inaccuracies in soil moisture and soil temperature, resulting in biases in surface relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. With the exception of cloud fraction, other aerosol-cloud variables including aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness are underpredicted for all three years, resulting in overpredictions of radiation variables. The model performs well for O3 and particulate matter with diameter less than or equal to 2.5 (PM2.5) for all three years comparable to other studies from literature. The model is able to

  20. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  1. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  2. Line of duty firefighter fatalities: an evolving trend over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Steven A; Woods, Jason; Rae, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    Between 1990 and 2012, 2775 firefighters were killed in the line of duty. Myocardial infarction (MI) was responsible for approximately 40% of these mortalities, followed by mechanical trauma, asphyxiation, and burns. Protective gear, safety awareness, medical care, and the age of the workforce have evolved since 1990, possibly affecting the nature of mortality during this 22-year time period. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the causes of firefighter mortality have changed over time to allow a targeted focus in prevention efforts. The U.S. Fire Administration fatality database was queried for all-cause on-duty mortality between 1990 to 2000 and 2002 to 2012. The year 2001 was excluded due to inability to eliminate the 347 deaths that occurred on September 11. Data collected included age range at the time of fatality (exact age not included in report), type of duty (on-scene fire, responding, training, and returning), incident type (structure fire, motor vehicle crash, etc), and nature of fatality (MI, trauma, asphyxiation, cerebrovascular accident [CVA], and burns). Data were compared between the two time periods with a χ test. Between 1990 and 2000, 1140 firefighters sustained a fatal injury while on duty, and 1174 were killed during 2002 to 2012. MI has increased from 43% to 46.5% of deaths (P = .012) between the 2 decades. CVA has increased from 1.6% to 3.7% of deaths (P = .002). Asphyxiation has decreased from 12.1% to 7.9% (P = .003) and burns have decreased from 7.7% to 3.9% (P = .0004). Electrocution is down from 1.8% to 0.5% (P = .004). Death from trauma was unchanged (27.8 to 29.6%, P = .12). The percentage of fatalities of firefighters over age 40 years has increased from 52% to 65% (P = .0001). Fatality by sex was constant at 3% female. Fatalities during training have increased from 7.3% to 11.2% of deaths (P = .00001). The nature of firefighter mortality has evolved over time. In the current decade, line-of-duty mortality is more

  3. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  4. phtt: Panel Data Analysis with Heterogeneous Time Trends in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oualid Bada

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The R package phtt provides estimation procedures for panel data with large dimensions n, T, and general forms of unobservable heterogeneous effects. Particularly, the estimation procedures are those of Bai (2009 and Kneip, Sickles, and Song (2012, which complement one another very well: both models assume the unobservable heterogeneous effects to have a factor structure. Kneip et al. (2012 considers the case in which the time-varying common factors have relatively smooth patterns including strongly positively auto-correlated stationary as well as non-stationary factors, whereas the method of Bai (2009 focuses on stochastic bounded factors such as ARMA processes. Additionally, the phtt package provides a wide range of dimensionality criteria in order to estimate the number of the unobserved factors simultaneously with the remaining model parameters.

  5. Developments in Planet Detection using Transit Timing Variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steffen, Jason H.; /Fermilab; Agol, Eric; /Washington U., Seattle, Astron. Dept.

    2006-12-01

    In a transiting planetary system, the presence of a second planet will cause the time interval between transits to vary. These transit timing variations (TTV) are particularly large near mean-motion resonances and can be used to infer the orbital elements of planets with masses that are too small to detect by any other means. The author presents the results of a study of simulated data where they show the potential that this planet detection technique has to detect and characterize secondary planets in transiting systems. These results have important ramifications for planetary transit searches since each transiting system presents an opportunity for additional discoveries through a TTV analysis. They present such an analysis for 13 transits of the HD 209458 system that were observed with the Hubble Space Telescope. This analysis indicates that a putative companion in a low-order, mean-motion resonance can be no larger than the mass of the Earth and constitutes, to date, the most sensitive probe for extrasolar planets that orbit main sequence stars. The presence or absence of small planets in low-order, mean-motion resonances has implications for theories of the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Since TTV is most sensitive in these regimes, it should prove a valuable tool not only for the detection of additional planets in transiting systems, but also as a way to determine the dominant mechanisms of planet formation and the evolution of planetary systems.

  6. Divorce risk factors and their variation over time in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Bernardi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyse the determinants of marriage dissolution in Spain and their variation over time for women married between 1949 and 2006. Data are drawn from the Survey of Fertility, Family and Values of 2006. The article analyses the transition from first marriage to marital dissolution for couples who married in two eras: one prior to the Divorce Law of 1981, during which social and legal barriers to dissolution were many, and one in the period after the law was introduced, during which barriers to marriage dissolution were far fewer. Analyses are conducted using a continuous time event history model. The results indicate some similarities between Spain and other countries, such as the positive relationship between the typical features of unconventional families and marital dissolution, but also some specific differences, such as an increase in the importance of premarital pregnancy and/or not having children. It is also important to stress the declining importance of socio-economic variables, such as education and the labour market situation of women.

  7. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  8. Time-causal decomposition of geomagnetic time series into secular variation, solar quiet, and disturbance signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigler, E. Joshua

    2017-04-26

    A theoretical basis and prototype numerical algorithm are provided that decompose regular time series of geomagnetic observations into three components: secular variation; solar quiet, and disturbance. Respectively, these three components correspond roughly to slow changes in the Earth’s internal magnetic field, periodic daily variations caused by quasi-stationary (with respect to the sun) electrical current systems in the Earth’s magnetosphere, and episodic perturbations to the geomagnetic baseline that are typically driven by fluctuations in a solar wind that interacts electromagnetically with the Earth’s magnetosphere. In contrast to similar algorithms applied to geomagnetic data in the past, this one addresses the issue of real time data acquisition directly by applying a time-causal, exponential smoother with “seasonal corrections” to the data as soon as they become available.

  9. Weight variation over time and its association with tuberculosis treatment outcome: a longitudinal analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Weight variation during therapy has been described as a useful marker to predict TB treatment outcome. No previous study has used longitudinal analysis to corroborate this finding. The goal of this study was to evaluate change and trends of patients' bodyweight over time depending on TB treatment outcome. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A retrospective cohort study with all TB cases diagnosed from 2000 to 2006 was carried out. Information from 5 public tuberculosis treatment facilities at Pampas de San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Peru was analyzed. Poor outcome was defined as failure or death during TB therapy, and compared to good outcome defined as cured. Longitudinal analysis with a pre-specified marginal model was fitted using Generalized Estimating Equations to compare weight trends for patients with good and poor outcome adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 460 patients (55.4% males, mean age: 31.6 years were included in the analysis: 42 (9.1% had a poor outcome (17 failed and 25 died. Weight at baseline was not different comparing outcome groups (p = 0.17. After adjusting for age, gender, type of TB, scheme of treatment, HIV status and sputum variation during follow-up, after the first month of treatment, patients with good outcome gained, on average, almost 1 kg compared to their baseline weight (p<0.001, whereas those with poor outcome lost 1 kg (p = 0.003. Similarly, after 4 months, a patient with good outcome increased 3 kg on average (p<0.001, while those with poor outcome only gained 0.2 kg (p = 0.02. CONCLUSIONS: Weight variation during tuberculosis therapy follow-up can predict treatment outcome. Patients losing weight during TB treatment, especially in the first month, should be more closely followed as they are at risk of failure or death.

  10. STUDIES ON TIME VARIATION OF AMBIENT SEA NOISE AND SCATTERING OF ACOUSTIC SIGNALS FROM ROUGH SURFACES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report is a collection of three papers on two subjects: the scattering of acoustic waves from rough surfaces and the time variation of ambient ...experimental program to investigate the time variation of low-frequency ambient sea noise. (Author)

  11. Internet search trends analysis tools can provide real-time data on kidney stone disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, Scott D; Nguyen, Mike M

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the utility of using Internet search trends data to estimate kidney stone occurrence and understand the priorities of patients with kidney stones. Internet search trends data represent a unique resource for monitoring population self-reported illness and health information-seeking behavior. The Google Insights for Search analysis tool was used to study searches related to kidney stones, with each search term returning a search volume index (SVI) according to the search frequency relative to the total search volume. SVIs for the term, "kidney stones," were compiled by location and time parameters and compared with the published weather and stone prevalence data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the association of the search interest score with known epidemiologic variations in kidney stone disease, including latitude, temperature, season, and state. The frequency of the related search terms was categorized by theme and qualitatively analyzed. The SVI correlated significantly with established kidney stone epidemiologic predictors. The SVI correlated with the state latitude (R-squared=0.25; Pstate mean annual temperature (R-squared=0.24; Pstate combined sex prevalence (R-squared=0.25; PInternet users are most interested in the diagnosis, followed by etiology, infections, and treatment. Geographic and temporal variability in kidney stone disease appear to be accurately reflected in Internet search trends data. Internet search trends data might have broader applications for epidemiologic and urologic research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Trends and variations in CO, C2H6, and HCN in the Southern Hemisphere point to the declining anthropogenic emissions of CO and C2H6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. B. Jones

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We analyse the carbon monoxide (CO, ethane (C2H6 and hydrogen cyanide (HCN partial columns (from the ground to 12 km derived from measurements by ground-based solar Fourier Transform Spectroscopy at Lauder, New Zealand (45° S, 170° E, and at Arrival Heights, Antarctica (78° S, 167° E, from 1997 to 2009. Significant negative trends are calculated for all species at both locations, based on the daily-mean observed time series, namely CO (−0.94 ± 0.47% yr−1, C2H6 (−2.37 ± 1.18% yr−1 and HCN (−0.93 ± 0.47% yr−1 at Lauder and CO (−0.92 ± 0.46% yr−1, C2H6 (−2.82 ± 1.37% yr−1 and HCN (−1.41 ± 0.71% yr−1 at Arrival Heights. The uncertainties reflect the 95% confidence limits. However, the magnitudes of the trends are influenced by the anomaly associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event at the beginning of the time series reported. We calculate trends for each month from 1997 to 2009 and find negative trends for all months. The largest monthly trends of CO and C2H6 at Lauder, and to a lesser degree at Arrival Heights, occur during austral spring during the Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical biomass burning period. For HCN, the largest monthly trends occur in July and August at Lauder and around November at Arrival Heights. The correlations between CO and C2H6 and between CO and HCN at Lauder in September to November, when the biomass burning maximizes, are significantly larger that those in other seasons. A tropospheric chemistry-climate model is used to simulate CO, C2H6, and HCN partial columns for the period of 1997–2009, using interannually varying biomass burning emissions from GFED3 and annually periodic but seasonally varying emissions from both biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The model-simulated partial columns of these species compare well with the measured partial columns and the model accurately reproduces seasonal cycles of all three species at both locations. However

  13. Time trends of mercury in feathers of West Greenland birds of prey during 1851-2003

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank Farsø; Boertmann, David

    2006-01-01

    Temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in West Greenland gyrfalcons, peregrine falcons, and white-tailed eagles were determined over 150 years from 1851 to 2003. Hg was measured in the fifth primary feather. Results showed that Hg increased in the order gyrfalcon (lowest)...) analysis. Of eight time trend analyses (three species and three age groups of which one was missing), seven showed an increase in primary feather concentrations. Of these...

  14. Time variation of fundamental constants in nonstandard cosmological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosquera, M. E.; Civitarese, O.

    2017-10-01

    In this work we have studied the lithium problem in nonstandard cosmological models. In particular, by using the public code alterbbn, we have included in the computation of the primordial light nuclei abundances, the effects of the inclusion of dark energy and dark entropy, along with the variation of the fine structure constant and the Higgs vacuum expectation value. In order to set constrains on the variation of the fundamental constants we have compared our theoretical results with the available observational data. We have found that the lithium abundance is reduced for not-null variation at the 3 σ -level of both constants.

  15. Common trends in elements? Within- and between-tree variations of wood-chemistry measured by X-ray fluorescence - A dendrochemical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharnweber, Tobias; Hevia, Andrea; Buras, Allan; van der Maaten, Ernst; Wilmking, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Element composition of annually resolved tree-rings constitutes a promising biological proxy for reconstructions of environmental conditions and pollution history. However, several methodological and physiological issues have to be addressed before sound conclusions can be drawn from dendrochemical time series. For example, radial and vertical translocation processes of elements in the wood might blur or obscure any dendrochemical signal. In this study, we tested the degree of synchronism of elemental time series within and between trees of one coniferous (Pinus sylvestris L.) and one broadleaf (Castanea sativa Mill.) species growing in conventionally managed forests without direct pollution sources in their surroundings. Micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) analysis was used to establish time series of relative concentrations of multiple elements (Mg, Al, P, Cl, K, Ca, Cr, Mn, Fe and Ni) for different stem heights and stem exposures. We found a common long-term (decadal) trend for most elements in both species, but only little coherence in the high frequency domain (inter-annual variations). Aligning the element curves by cambial age instead of year of ring formation reduced the standard deviations between the single measurements. This points at an influence of age on longer term trends and would require a detrending in order to extract any environmental signal from dendrochemical time series. The common signal was stronger for pine than for chestnut. In pine, many elements show a concentration gradient with higher values towards the tree crown. Mobility of elements in the stem leading to high within- and between-tree variability, as well as a potential age-trend apparently complicate the establishment of reliable dendrochemical chronologies. For future wood-chemical studies, we recommend to work with element ratios instead of single element time series, to consider potential age trends and to analyze more than one sample per tree to account for internal variability

  16. Variations and trends of terrestrial NPP and its relation to climate ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ing the terrestrial ecosystem has had a positive response to climate change. MME NPP has increased. 3.647PgC during historical period, which shows an increasing temporal trend of 3.9 gCm ..... In reality, the terrestrial ecosystem is a complex variable, which can be effected by many factors, such as climate, CO2, human ...

  17. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in The Netherlands in 1989–2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siesling, Sabine; van der Aa, Maaike A.; Coebergh, Jan W.W.; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-01-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989–2003 and

  18. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  19. Time trend of the male proportion at birth in Brazil, 1979-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Gerusa; Costa, Luciana Scarlazzari; Koifman, Sergio

    2009-08-01

    Several studies suggest that exposure to environmental endocrine disrupters can reduce the number of male births, and therefore, the male proportion at birth (also denominated birth ratio or sex ratio at birth) can be used as a sentinel health indicator. This work aimed to analyze the trend of male births in Brazil, according to their distribution by states and capitals. An ecological descriptive time series was carried out using polynomial regression, showing a declining trend for male proportion at birth in Brazil (1979-1994), followed by an upward trend until 2004. A decline on the proportion of male births was observed in Brazil between 1979 and 1993, followed by a subsequent rise of this ratio between 1995 and 2004, wherein the mean proportion of male births in Brazil rose from 51.05 to 51.18, representing a relative increase of 0.25%. The states of São Paulo (Southwest region) and Acre (Western Amazon), as well as some capitals-Cuiabá (Western Region), Palmas (Amazon) and Rio Branco (Amazon)-showed increasing trends, which suggests the influence of socio-demographic changes. In contrast, a declining trend in the State of Ceará State (Northeast region), with a 0.35% yearly decrease was observed. As a whole, these results suggest the influence of different environmental factors (demographic changes, public health services distribution, and population exposure to endocrine disruptor substances) influencing the time trend of birth ratio in the Brazilian population during the last decades.

  20. Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Liangying; Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

    2017-05-05

    Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement.

  1. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... on late life alcohol consumption. By using age, period, and cohort modeling this study explores the time trends in heavy drinking. METHODS: Data derive from five National Health and Morbidity Surveys conducted by the Danish National Institute of Public Health in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2003, and 2005. A total......, period (calendar time) and cohort (year of birth). RESULTS: The unadjusted probability of heavy drinking declines by age and increases by calendar year and year of birth for both men and women. However, the negative effect of age is attenuated for women when adjusted for birth cohort, indicating...

  2. Snowboarding injuries: trends over time and comparisons with alpine skiing injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suezie; Endres, Nathan K; Johnson, Robert J; Ettlinger, Carl F; Shealy, Jasper E

    2012-04-01

    Participation in snowboarding as a winter sport is comparable to alpine skiing concerning the demographics of the participants, risk of injury, and variation in types of injuries sustained. To examine the types of snowboarding injuries and changes in injury patterns over time. We also sought to highlight important differences in injury patterns between snowboarders and alpine skiers as affected by age, experience, and sex. Case control; Level of evidence, 3. Data were collected on injured snowboarders and skiers in a base-lodge clinic of a ski resort in Vermont over 18 seasons (1988-2006) and included extensive information about injury patterns, demographics, and experience. Control data were also obtained during this time period to provide information about the population at risk. The injury rates were assessed as mean days between injuries (MDBI). The average MDBI for all injuries among snowboarders was 345 as compared with 400 for skiers (the lower the number, the higher the injury rate). The most common type of injury for snowboarders was a wrist injury (MDBI, 1258), while for skiers, it was an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) sprain (MDBI, 2332). Wrist injuries accounted for 27.6% of all snowboard injuries and 2.8% of skiing injuries, and ACL injuries composed 1.7% of all snowboard injuries and 17.2% of skiing injuries. Among snowboarders, more wrist injuries, shoulder soft tissue injuries, ankle injuries, concussions, and clavicle fractures were seen, while skiers had more ACL sprains, medial collateral ligament (MCL) sprains of the knee, lateral collateral ligament (LCL) sprains of the knee, lower extremity contusions, and tibia fractures. The trend analysis revealed an increased incidence of clavicle fractures (P snowboarders over time. Skiers had a decrease in thumb metacarpophalangeal-ulnar collateral ligament (MCP-UCL) injuries (P snowboarders. When examining the location of injury, 21.8% of snowboard injuries occurred in the terrain park compared with 6

  3. Towards Uniform Accelerometry Analysis: A Standardization Methodology to Minimize Measurement Bias Due to Systematic Accelerometer Wear-Time Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarun R. Katapally, Nazeem Muhajarine

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Accelerometers are predominantly used to objectively measure the entire range of activity intensities – sedentary behaviour (SED, light physical activity (LPA and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA. However, studies consistently report results without accounting for systematic accelerometer wear-time variation (within and between participants, jeopardizing the validity of these results. This study describes the development of a standardization methodology to understand and minimize measurement bias due to wear-time variation. Accelerometry is generally conducted over seven consecutive days, with participants' data being commonly considered 'valid' only if wear-time is at least 10 hours/day. However, even within ‘valid’ data, there could be systematic wear-time variation. To explore this variation, accelerometer data of Smart Cities, Healthy Kids study (www.smartcitieshealthykids.com were analyzed descriptively and with repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA. Subsequently, a standardization method was developed, where case-specific observed wear-time is controlled to an analyst specified time period. Next, case-specific accelerometer data are interpolated to this controlled wear-time to produce standardized variables. To understand discrepancies owing to wear-time variation, all analyses were conducted pre- and post-standardization. Descriptive analyses revealed systematic wear-time variation, both between and within participants. Pre- and post-standardized descriptive analyses of SED, LPA and MVPA revealed a persistent and often significant trend of wear-time’s influence on activity. SED was consistently higher on weekdays before standardization; however, this trend was reversed post-standardization. Even though MVPA was significantly higher on weekdays both pre- and post-standardization, the magnitude of this difference decreased post-standardization. Multivariable analyses with standardized SED, LPA and

  4. Transit timing observations from Kepler. V. Transit timing variation candidates in the first sixteen months from polynomial models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ford, E.B.; Ragozzine, D.; Holman, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Transit timing variations provide a powerful tool for confirming and characterizing transiting planets, as well as detecting non-transiting planets. We report the results of an updated transit timing variation (TTV) analysis for 1481 planet candidates based on transit times measured during...

  5. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  6. Trend and seasonal variation of atmospheric mercury concentrations at the Cape Point GAW observatory, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunke E.-G.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM has been measured at the WMO Global Atmospheric Watch station at Cape Point, South Africa since September 1995. Two techniques were used: a low resolution manual technique till the end of 2004 and a high resolution automated technique since March 2007. The GEM measurements at Cape Point constitute only one component of the GAW monitoring program consisting of continuous measurements of CO, CH4, CO2, O3, N2O, and since March 1999 also of 222Rn. The seasonality and trend of GEM concentrations from the low resolution data was analyzed by Slemr et al. (2008 and the trend of the combined low and high resolution data until the end of 2009 by Slemr et al. (2011. In this paper we will present an updated analysis of the trend and seasonality of GEM data until the end of 2011 and compare these to measurements made at Troll, a Norwegian research station in Antarctica (Pfaffhuber et al., 2012.

  7. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan); Kanai, Yutaka [Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba 305-8567 (Japan); Masunaga, Shigeki, E-mail: masunaga@ynu.ac.j [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan)

    2010-03-15

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  8. Incorporating latitudinal and central–marginal trends in assessing genetic variation across species ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo

    2012-01-01

    The genetic variation across a species’ range is an important factor in speciation and conservation, yet searching for general patterns and underlying causes remains challenging. While the majority of comparisons between central and marginal populations have revealed a general central–marginal (C-M) decline in genetic diversity, others show no clear pattern. Similarly...

  9. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  10. [Time-trend analysis of diabetes mellitus mortality in Argentina, 1990-2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Hernán; Macías, Guillermo

    2017-06-08

    To describe the time trend of mortality attributable to diabetes mellitus (DM) in Argentina in the years 1990-2013, by age and sex. Crude, age-specific, and age-adjusted rates of DM mortality in Argentina were calculated for the period 1990-2013. Mortality data were obtained from the Statistical Report on Deaths issued by the Department of Statistics and Health Information. An analysis of this trend was carried out through joinpoint regression models. Analysis of the trend of crude and age-adjusted DM mortality rates yielded a statistically significant model in which mortality increased between 1990 and 2001 and declined thereafter. Furthermore, for age-adjusted rates, there was a significant downward trend of mortality in women (AAPC -1.10, 95%CI -1.70 to -0.50). Age-specific mortality rates multiplied with every 10-year increment in age. All age groups older than 50 years showed a growing mortality trend between 1990 and 2001. DM mortality mainly affects people over the age of 50 and men. A significant downward trend in age-adjusted DM mortality rates was observed for women. These findings highlight the importance of developing policies for prevention and early detection, as well as of proper coding of multiple causes of death.

  11. Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.

    2017-10-01

    Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

  12. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions......). Income and educational level, hospital utilization propensity, and region of residence were found to be associated with avoidable admissions. CONCLUSION: The dramatic variation across countries, beyond age and sex differences, and its consistency over time, implies systemic, although differential...

  13. Benchmarking of hospital information systems: Monitoring of discharge letters and scheduling can reveal heterogeneities and time trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Martin; Eckholt, Markus; Bunzemeier, Holger

    2008-01-01

    Background Monitoring of hospital information system (HIS) usage can provide insights into best practices within a hospital and help to assess time trends. In terms of effort and cost of benchmarking, figures derived automatically from the routine HIS system are preferable to manual methods like surveys, in particular for repeated analysis. Methods Due to relevance for quality management and efficient resource utilization we focused on time-to-completion of discharge letters (assessed by CT-plots) and usage of patient scheduling. We analyzed these parameters monthly during one year at a major university hospital in Germany. Results We found several distinct patterns of discharge letter documentation indicating a large heterogeneity of HIS usage between different specialties (completeness 51 – 99%, delays 0 – 90 days). Overall usage of scheduling increased during the observation period by 62%, but again showed a considerable variation between departments. Conclusion Regular monitoring of HIS key figures can contribute to a continuous HIS improvement process. PMID:18423046

  14. Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk

    OpenAIRE

    Garrett, Ian; Kamstra, Mark; Kramer, Lisa

    2004-01-01

    Previous research has documented robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression (known as seasonal affective disorder, or SAD), risk aversion, and stock market returns. The influence of SAD on market returns, known as the SAD effect, is large. The authors study the SAD effect in the context of an equilibrium asset pricing model to determine whether the seasonality can be explained using a conditional version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows ...

  15. Analysis of Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulphur Dioxide in Lima, Peru: Trends and Seasonal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacsi, S.; Rappenglueck, B.

    2007-12-01

    This research was carried out to show a general analysis of the monthly and yearly variation (1996-2002) and the tendency of the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) for the 5 stations of the air quality network of Lima. The SO2 and NO2 concentrations were measured by the Dirección General de Salud Ambiental (DIGESA), using the active sampling method and the chemical analysis has been determined by Turbidimetry and Colorimetry for the SO2 and NO2 respectively. The monthly average variation (1996-2001) of SO2 in the Lima Center station has a small annual range (32,4 mikrograms/m3) with maximum values in autumn (April) and minimum in winter (June). The NO2 presents a higher annual range (128,2 mikrograms/m3) and its minimum values occur in the summer and the maximum in spring. The annual averages analysis (2000-2002) of the air quality monitoring network of Lima shows that the SO2 and NO2 values are maximum in the Lima Center station and exceed the Peruvian air quality standard (ECAs) in 30% and 75% respectively. The yearly variation (1996-2001) in the Lima Center station show an increasing tendency in the SO2 (significant) and NO2 (not significant) values, which indicates the critical level of the air quality in Lima, therefore the implementation of the air pollution control programs is urgent.

  16. Long-range correlations and trends in Colombian seismic time series

    CERN Document Server

    Martin-Montoya, L A; Quimbay, C J

    2014-01-01

    We detect long-range correlations and trends in time series extracted from the data of seismic events occurred since 1973 until 2011 in a rectangular region that contain mainly all the continental part of Colombia. The long-range correlations are detected by the calculation of the Hurst exponents for the time series of interevent intervals, separation distances, depth differences and magnitude differences. By using a geometrical modification of the classical R/S method that has been developed to detect long-range correlations in short time series, we find the existence of persistence for all the time series considered. We find also, by using the DFA until the third order, that the time series of interevent intervals, separation distances and depth differences are influenced by quadratic trends, while the time series of magnitude differences is influenced by a linear trend. Finally, for the time series of interevent intervals, we present an analysis of the Hurst exponent as a function of the time and the minim...

  17. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  18. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...

  19. Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

    2016-01-01

    There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

  20. Chronological bias in randomized clinical trials arising from different types of unobserved time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamm, M; Hilgers, R-D

    2014-01-01

    In clinical trials patients are commonly recruited sequentially over time incurring the risk of chronological bias due to (unobserved) time trends. To minimize the risk of chronological bias, a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. Considering different time trend scenarios, we aim at a detailed evaluation of the extent of chronological bias under permuted block randomization in order to provide recommendations regarding the choice of randomization at the design stage of a clinical trial and to assess the maximum extent of bias for a realized sequence in the analysis stage. For the assessment of chronological bias we consider linear, logarithmic and stepwise trends illustrating typical changes during recruitment in clinical practice. Bias and variance of the treatment effect estimator as well as the empirical type I error rate when applying the t-test are investigated. Different sample sizes, block sizes and strengths of time trends are considered. Using large block sizes, a notable bias exists in the estimate of the treatment effect for specific sequences. This results in a heavily inflated type I error for realized worst-case sequences and an enlarged mean squared error of the treatment effect estimator. Decreasing the block size restricts these effects of time trends. Already applying permuted block randomization with two blocks instead of the random allocation rule achieves a good reduction of the mean squared error and of the inflated type I error. Averaged over all sequences, the type I error of the t-test is far below the nominal significance level due to an overestimated variance. Unobserved time trends can induce a strong bias in the treatment effect estimate and in the test decision. Therefore, already in the design stage of a clinical trial a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. According to our results, small block sizes should be preferred, but also medium block sizes are sufficient to restrict chronological bias to an

  1. Temporal trends and regional variations in gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Peru, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Bendezú-Quispe, Guido; Azañedo, Diego; Huarez, Bertha; Rodríguez-Lema, Belén

    2016-01-01

    To estimate and analyze the evolution of mortality rates of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Peru and its regions between 2005-2014. We performed a nationwide secondary analysis of Peru's Health Ministry registry of deaths during the period 2005-2014, with a focus on regional differences. Deaths registered with codes C15 to C25 (malignant neoplasms of digestive organs) from the ICD-10 were included. Calculation of age-standarized mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) due to GI cancer per 100,000 habitants were also performed. Data of 67,527 deaths from GI cancers was analyzed, 35,055 (51.91%) were women. In 2005, the number of GI cancer deaths was 6,484, for 2014, 7,532 cases were recorded. The GI cancer age-standarized mortality rates at the country level showed a decrease of 12.70% between 2005-2014. Stomach cancer presented the highest age-standarized mortality rate despite showing a downward trend in the last years, equal for gallbladder, liver and biliary tract, and esophagus cancer. Colorectal, small intestine and anus cancer show a progressive increase. In 2014, Callao (48.8), Huancavelica (48.5), La Libertad (39.6), Lambayeque (40.5) and Huanuco (38.9) had the highest rates. The three types of GI cancers with the highest rates of YLL in 2014 were stomach cancer (118.51), followed by liver and biliary tract cancer (58.68) and colorectal (44.86). GI cancer mortality in Peru is high and a priority issue in regions like Huancavelica, Huanuco, Callao, La Libertad and Lambayeque. Stomach cancer remains the most frequent GI cancer, but with a downward trend in the study period.

  2. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in The Netherlands in 1989–2003

    OpenAIRE

    Siesling, Sabine; van der Aa, Maaike A.; Coebergh, Jan W.W.; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-01-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989–2003 and speculates on the reasons for the observations. From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, World standardized incidence rates per municipality were smoothed calculating weighted averages for each 2 km b...

  3. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changfa Xia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005. To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002 but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089 level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  4. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-09-28

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973-1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004-2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres' beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15-64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

  5. Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

    2016-01-01

    To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents. PMID:27690073

  6. Spatiotemporal Trends in the Timing and Volume of Snowfall in High Mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Taylor; Bookhagen, Bodo

    2017-04-01

    High Mountain Asia, which encompasses the Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir, Tien Shan, and the Tibetan Plateau, is the primary 'water tower' for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow - the vast majority of which is not monitored by sparse weather networks in the region. We leverage passive microwave data, flown on five sensors (SSMI, AMSR-E, SSMIS, AMSR2, and GPM, 1987-2016), to examine trends in the timing, volume, and spatial distribution of snowfall. While the total volume of water stored in snowpack has decreased over the study period, this large-scale water-storage loss hides small-scale and seasonal complexities. Some regions, such as the high Tien Shan and Kunlun Shan, have seen increased snow-water storage. Other regions, such as the Pamir and Karakorum, have seen increases in winter snow-water storage, coupled with decreases in summer snow-water storage, implying an intensification of winter storms alongside more rapid spring and summer snowmelt. We also note a non-linear elevation trend, where the mid-elevation zones show the largest negative snow-water storage trends, implying that these areas are the most strongly impacted by increasing temperatures in the region. Our study provides a first-order examination of snow-water trends in High Mountain Asia, and highlights that both small and large-scale snow trends must be considered for effective water planning.

  7. Analysis of trends and seasonal variation in primary cutaneous melanoma: an Irish study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Downes, M R

    2010-11-10

    A seasonal variation in the presentation of cutaneous melanoma has been documented in several studies. We performed a retrospective review of primary cutaneous melanomas (n = 263) from our institution to examine whether the seasonal patterns of presentation noted in the literature would be similar in Ireland, a climate with low ambient sunshine. A summer : winter ratio was determined for age, gender, subtype, location and Breslow thickness. We found an increase in total numbers of melanomas, particularly in men. The summer : winter ratio was 2.39 for all patients (95% CI 1.60-3.57, P < 0.001), with seasonal variations noted for location, thickness and subtype (excluding lentigo). Melanomas presenting over the summer tended towards a greater Breslow thickness than did those presenting in winter. This subclassification of primary cutaneous melanoma with summer : winter ratios based on patient and tumour characteristics gave remarkably similar results to previously published reports, notwithstanding the low levels of annual ambient sunshine in Ireland.

  8. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  9. An accretion disk model for periodic timing variations of pulsars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, G. J.; Xue, Y. Q.; Xu, R. X.; Wang, H. G.; Xiao, B. W.

    2003-08-01

    The long-term, highly periodic and correlated variations in both the pulse shape and the rate of slow-down of two isolated pulsars (PSRs) PSR B1828-11 and PSR B1642-03 were discovered recently. This phenomenon may provide evidence for ``free precession'' as suggested in the literature. Some authors presented various kinds of models to explain this phenomenon within the framework of free precession. Here we present an accretion disk model for this precession phenomenon instead. Under reasonable parameters, the observed phenomenon can be explained by an isolated pulsar with a fossil disk. This may link radio pulsars and anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) and present an indirect evidence for the existence of the fossil disk in nature.

  10. Variations of extreme rainfall in space and time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2012-01-01

    . This study focuses on variations of extreme rainfall events, observed at 70 different locations in Denmark over a period of 31 years. The aim is to identify and compare variables, both spatially and temporally, which can explain different parts of the variability in this data set. Assuming that the number...... of extremes at each location is generated by a point process, we develop a spatio-temporal model based on Poisson regression. The starting point of the analysis is two marginal models formulated for number of events 1) averaged over all years of observations 2) averaged over all measurement sites. The first....... Still there are challenges when we explicitly model the number of extreme events at a given year, at a given location. It was found that the goodness of the model highly depends on assumptions in the generalized linear model, notably the link function between the continuous regression model...

  11. Trends and variation in the management of oesophagogastric cancer patients: a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greenberg David C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evidence indicates potential variation in the quality of care of cancer patients. We aimed to examine whether recent changes in the treatment of oesophagogastric cancers have been distributed equally among different patient subgroups. Methods We analysed population-based cancer registry data about the treatment patterning of oesophagogastric cancer (other than oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma during 1995-2006. Results There were 14,077 patients aged ≥40 years (69% men. There was only limited information on stage, and no information on co-morbidity status. During successive triennia, curative surgery use decreased from 28% to 20% (p Conclusions During the study period, curative surgery decreased by a third and chemotherapy use increased by more than three-fold, reflecting improvements in the appropriateness and quality of management, but chemotherapy use, in particular, was unequal, both by socioeconomic status and gender.

  12. Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation trends in Andhra Pradesh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivajothi, R.; Karthikeyan, K.

    2017-11-01

    Long-term samples of meteorological data are periodically necessary to assess the long standing effects of future hydrological changes. The evaluations are repeatedly undertaken using deterministic statistical analyze which requires daily weather data as input. Andhra Pradesh had experienced frequent disasters like cyclones, floods, droughts etc. The frequency and intensity of the hazardous events has been significantly increasing in there cent decades due to climatic changes and global warming. This model is being applied to all the districts of the state to evaluate the results of abnormally low rainfall and to evaluate possible adjustment polices. The final results shows that the lack of rainfall has larger influence on the living society and the major adaptation sustained by irrigation and the ecosystem which illustrates the potential of hydrological modelling for multiple dimensions of water resources. No significant trend has been detected for annual and seasonal precipitation in the entire state, some of the district’s annual and monsoon precipitation has decreased, and has increased during post monsoon and winter seasons.

  13. Hospital Variation in Survival Trends for In‐hospital Cardiac Arrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotra, Saket; Cram, Peter; Spertus, John A.; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.; Li, Yan; Jones, Philip G.; Chan, Paul S.

    2014-01-01

    Background During the past decade, survival after in‐hospital cardiac arrest has improved markedly. It remains unknown whether the improvement in survival has occurred uniformly at all hospitals or was driven by large improvements at only a few hospitals. Methods and Results We identified 93 342 adults with an in‐hospital cardiac arrest at 231 hospitals in the Get With The Guidelines®‐Resuscitation registry during 2000–2010. Using hierarchical regression models, we evaluated hospital‐level trends in survival to discharge. Mean age was 66 years, 59% were men, and 21% were black. Between 2000 and 2010, there was a significant decrease in age, prevalence of heart failure and myocardial infarction, and cardiac arrests due to shockable rhythms (Parrest (Pcardiac arrest survival improved by 7% per year (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.08, Pcardiac arrest survival has improved during the past decade, the magnitude of improvement varied across hospitals. Future studies are needed to identify hospital processes that have led to the largest improvement in survival. PMID:24922627

  14. High-Cadence Transit Timing Variation Monitoring of Extrasolar Planets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naef D.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We report ground-based high-cadence transit timing observations of the extrasolar planet WASP-2b. We achieve a typical timing error of 15-30 sec. The data show no significant deviations from the predicted ephemeris.

  15. variation of reverberation time with quantity of absorbers in an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    reverberation time with quantity of absorber at frequency of 500Hz are given in Fig 1 for both the measured and calculated values while those at 1000Hz are given in Fig. 2. In comparison, the reverberation times whether measured or calculated are lower at higher frequencies. This is consistent with theory that there is high ...

  16. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  17. Trends in Americans' food-related time use: 1975-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Stevens, Robert B

    2010-07-01

    To describe how the time spent in food-related activities by Americans has changed over the past 30 years. Data from four national time diary surveys, spanning 1975-2006, are used to construct estimates of trends in American adults' time spent in food-related activities. Multivariate Tobits assess how food-related activities have changed over time controlling for sociodemographic and economic covariates. Both bivariate and multivariate estimates reveal that between 1975 and 2006, American women's time spent in food preparation declined substantially, whereas the time spent in these activities by American men changed very little. On the contrary, grocery shopping time increased modestly for both men and women. The primary eating time (i.e. time when eating/drinking was the respondent's main focus) declined for both men and women over this historical period, and the composition of this time changed with less primary eating time being done alone. Concurrently, secondary eating time (i.e. time when something else had the respondent's primary attention, but eating/drinking simultaneously occurred) rose precipitously for both women and men between 1975 and 1998. The total time spent in eating (i.e. primary plus secondary eating time) has increased over the past 30 years, and the composition of this time has shifted from situations in which energy intake can be easily monitored to those in which energy intake may be more difficult to gauge. Less time is also being spent in food preparation and clean-up activities. Future research should explore possible links between these trends and Americans' growing obesity risk.

  18. Forest cover trends from time series Landsat data for the Australian continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Eric A.; Wallace, Jeremy F.; Caccetta, Peter A.; Furby, Suzanne L.; Zdunic, Katherine

    2013-04-01

    In perennial and natural vegetation systems, monitoring changes in vegetation over time is of fundamental interest for identifying and quantifying impacts of management and natural processes. Subtle changes in vegetation cover can be identified by calculating the trends of a vegetation density index over time. In this paper, we apply such an index-trends approach, which has been developed and applied to time series Landsat imagery in rangeland and woodland environments, to continental-scale monitoring of disturbances within forested regions of Australia. This paper describes the operational methods used for the generation of National Forest Trend (NFT) information, which is a time-series summary providing visual indication of within-forest vegetation changes (disturbance and recovery) over time at 25 m resolution. This result is based on a national archive of calibrated Landsat TM/ETM+ data from 1989 to 2006 produced for Australia's National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS). The NCAS was designed in 1999 initially to provide consistent fine-scale classifications for monitoring forest cover extent and changes (i.e. land use change) over the Australian continent using time series Landsat imagery. NFT information identifies more subtle changes within forested areas and provides a capacity to identify processes affecting forests which are of primary interest to ecologists and land managers. The NFT product relies on the identification of an appropriate Landsat-based vegetation cover index (defined as a linear combination of spectral image bands) that is sensitive to changes in forest density. The time series of index values at a location, derived from calibrated imagery, represents a consistent surrogate to track density changes. To produce the trends summary information, statistical summaries of the index response over time (such as slope and quadratic curvature) are calculated. These calculated index responses of woody vegetation cover are then displayed as maps where

  19. Trends in genome dynamics among major orders of insects revealed through variations in protein families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rappoport, Nadav; Linial, Michal

    2015-08-07

    Insects belong to a class that accounts for the majority of animals on earth. With over one million identified species, insects display a huge diversity and occupy extreme environments. At present, there are dozens of fully sequenced insect genomes that cover a range of habitats, social behavior and morphologies. In view of such diverse collection of genomes, revealing evolutionary trends and charting functional relationships of proteins remain challenging. We analyzed the relatedness of 17 complete proteomes representative of proteomes from insects including louse, bee, beetle, ants, flies and mosquitoes, as well as an out-group from the crustaceans. The analyzed proteomes mostly represented the orders of Hymenoptera and Diptera. The 287,405 protein sequences from the 18 proteomes were automatically clustered into 20,933 families, including 799 singletons. A comprehensive analysis based on statistical considerations identified the families that were significantly expanded or reduced in any of the studied organisms. Among all the tested species, ants are characterized by an exceptionally high rate of family gain and loss. By assigning annotations to hundreds of species-specific families, the functional diversity among species and between the major clades (Diptera and Hymenoptera) is revealed. We found that many species-specific families are associated with receptor signaling, stress-related functions and proteases. The highest variability among insects associates with the function of transposition and nucleic acids processes (collectively coined TNAP). Specifically, the wasp and ants have an order of magnitude more TNAP families and proteins relative to species that belong to Diptera (mosquitoes and flies). An unsupervised clustering methodology combined with a comparative functional analysis unveiled proteomic signatures in the major clades of winged insects. We propose that the expansion of TNAP families in Hymenoptera potentially contributes to the accelerated

  20. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  1. Handheld mechanical nociceptive threshold testing in dairy cows - intra-individual variation, inter-observer agreement and variation over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raundal, Peter M.; Andersen, Pia H.; Toft, Nils

    2014-01-01

    All methods showed a high degree of intra-individual variation, and no combination of device and stimulation site showed superior precision. Mean difference between observers was low, and MNT was not consistent over time. Further development of the methods is required before they can be used in r...

  2. MONITORING IONOSPHERIC VARIATION FOR A DEFINITE PERIOD TIME IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Inyurt

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Ionosphere has been studied by a number of scientists in recent years. Since GPS observations cannot provide TEC value directly, it can be estimated from combination of observations. In this study TEC values derived from GPS observations were produced variations with two hours increments from the eighth day to fifteenth day in months just after beginning of each season, namely January, April, July and October in 2014 for ZONG TUSAGA-Aktif station and 41 other stations (TUSAGA-Aktif, EUREF, IGS. TEC values computed by the Bernese 5.0 software were compared with the Global Ionosphere Model (GIM TEC values regularly published by Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012 TEC values. As a result of this study, with the comparison of GPS TEC values to GIM TEC values, it has become obvious that GPS TEC values are quite similar to the GIM TEC values. The differences of TEC values derived from GPS TEC and GIM TEC change from 0.91 TECU (January to 1.88 TECU (October. On the other hand, GPS TEC values are also compared with IRI TEC values, and found out that there is a considerable difference between the two TEC values ranging from 6.30 TECU (January to 15.15 TECU (April. Moreover, TEC values derived from GPS measurements are attained similar to GIM TEC, but found to stray from IRI-2012 TEC values remarkably.

  3. Monitoring Ionospheric Variation for a Definite Period Time in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inyurt, S.; Mekik, C.; Yildirim, O.

    2015-12-01

    Ionosphere has been studied by a number of scientists in recent years. Since GPS observations cannot provide TEC value directly, it can be estimated from combination of observations. In this study TEC values derived from GPS observations were produced variations with two hours increments from the eighth day to fifteenth day in months just after beginning of each season, namely January, April, July and October in 2014 for ZONG TUSAGA-Aktif station and 41 other stations (TUSAGA-Aktif, EUREF, IGS). TEC values computed by the Bernese 5.0 software were compared with the Global Ionosphere Model (GIM) TEC values regularly published by Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) TEC values. As a result of this study, with the comparison of GPS TEC values to GIM TEC values, it has become obvious that GPS TEC values are quite similar to the GIM TEC values. The differences of TEC values derived from GPS TEC and GIM TEC change from 0.91 TECU (January) to 1.88 TECU (October). On the other hand, GPS TEC values are also compared with IRI TEC values, and found out that there is a considerable difference between the two TEC values ranging from 6.30 TECU (January) to 15.15 TECU (April). Moreover, TEC values derived from GPS measurements are attained similar to GIM TEC, but found to stray from IRI-2012 TEC values remarkably.

  4. Rensching cats and dogs: feeding ecology and fecundity trends explain variation in the allometry of sexual size dimorphism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, P J; Noonan, M J; Kitchener, A C; Harrington, L A; Newman, C; Macdonald, D W

    2017-06-01

    The tendency for sexual size dimorphism (SSD) to increase with body mass in taxa where males are larger, and to decrease when females are larger, is known as Rensch's rule. In mammals, where the trend occurs, it is believed to be the result of a competitive advantage for larger males, while female mass is constrained by the energetics of reproduction. Here, we examine the allometry of SSD within the Felidae and Canidae, demonstrating distinctly different patterns: in felids, there is positive allometric scaling, while there is no trend in canids. We hypothesize that feeding ecology, via its effect on female spacing patterns, is responsible for the difference; larger male mass may be advantageous only where females are dispersed such that males can defend access to them. This is supported by the observation that felids are predominately solitary, and all are obligate carnivores. Similarly, carnivorous canids are more sexually dimorphic than insectivores and omnivores, but carnivory does not contribute to a Rensch effect as dietary variation occurs across the mass spectrum. The observed inter-familial differences are also consistent with reduced constraints on female mass in the canids, where litter size increases with body mass, versus no observable allometry in the felids.

  5. [Radial variation and time lag of sap flow of Populus gansuensis in Minqin Oasis, Northwest].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Hong-Zhong; Yang, Wen-Bin; Li, Wei; Zhang, You-Yan; Li, Chang-Long

    2014-09-01

    Sap flow of tree trunk is very important to reflect the dynamics of physiological activities, as well as to estimate the water consumption of individual plant. In the present study, we used the thermal dissipation technique to monitor the sap flow velocity (J) at four depth loci (i. e. 2 cm, 3 cm, 5 cm, 8 cm) of three Populus gansuensis trees (30 year-old) in Minqin Oasis for two consecutive growing seasons. The results showed that there were significant differences among J values at four depth loci under tree trunk cambium. J value at the 3 cm depth locus (J3) of the tree trunk was the highest, and then in sequences, were 2 cm, 5 cm and 8 cm depth loci (J2, J5 and J8). J value (J3) on typical sunny days in June with the highest atmospheric potential evapotranspiration (ET0) was up to 28.53 g · cm(-2) · h(-1), which was 1.42, 2.74 and 4.4 times of J2, J5 and J8, respectively. In the process of diurnal variation of sap flow velocity, the peak value time of J at the four depth loci of the tree trunk was different, but the differences among them were within 20 min. Furthermore, the peak value time of sap flow velocity was very different to that of solar radiation (Rs) and air vapour pressure deficit (VPD). The time lag between J and Rs was from 55 to 88 min on typical sunny days during the main growing seasons (from June to August), and, positively related to the depth of the locus under tree trunk cambium, while the time lag between J and VPD reached 60-96 min, and was negatively related to the depth of the locus. The seasonal variation patterns of J were consistent with ET0. With the increase of tree physiological activities, there was a trend that the major water transportation layer extended to the interior sapwood. The most important meteorological factor was the solar radiation, which primarily drove sap flow at different depths of tree trunk. However, the secondary factor changed along with the depth, and VPD became increasingly important with increasing the

  6. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  7. Time trends in exposure measurements from OSHA compliance inspections of the pulp and paper industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coble, J B; Lees, P S; Matanoski, G

    2001-02-01

    Time trends in employee exposures to the air contaminants measured by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) during compliance inspections of pulp and paper manufacturing facilities conducted between 1979 and 1997 were evaluated based on the measurement results stored in the OSHA Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) database. The IMIS database is among the largest sources of occupational exposure measurements available for occupational health research in the United States. The IMIS database contains the results of 3,568 personal time-weighted average (TWA) measurements for 171 air contaminants made at 524 establishments in Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 26. An analysis of these measurements revealed an overall decrease in the total number of measurements made per year since 1991, and a decrease in the percentage of measurements by year that exceeded the OSHA permissible exposure limits (PELs). Linear regression analyses detected decreasing trends in the geometric mean concentrations by year for 33 of the 36 agents analyzed.

  8. Speech Timing Deficit of Stuttering: Evidence from Contingent Negative Variations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Ning

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to investigate the speech preparation processes of adults who stutter (AWS. Fifteen AWS and fifteen adults with fluent speech (AFS participated in the experiment. The event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded in a foreperiod paradigm. The warning signal (S1 was a color square, and the following imperative stimulus (S2 was either a white square (the Go signal that required participants to name the color of S1 or a white dot (the NoGo signal that prevents participants from speaking. Three differences were found between AWS and AFS. First, the mean amplitude of the ERP component parietal positivity elicited by S1 (S1-P3 was smaller in AWS than in AFS, which implies that AWS may have deficits in investing working memory on phonological programming. Second, the topographic shift from the early phase to the late phase of contingent negative variation occurred earlier for AWS than for AFS, thus suggesting that the motor preparation process is promoted in AWS. Third, the NoGo effect in the ERP component parietal positivity elicited by S2 (S2-P3 was larger for AFS than for AWS, indicating that AWS have difficulties in inhibiting a planned speech response. These results provide a full picture of the speech preparation and response inhibition processes of AWS. The relationship among these three findings is discussed. However, as stuttering was not manipulated in this study, it is still unclear whether the effects are the causes or the results of stuttering. Further studies are suggested to explore the relationship between stuttering and the effects found in the present study.

  9. Transducer frequency response variations investigated by time reversal calibration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kober, Jan; Převorovský, Zdeněk

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 2 (2016), A16-A16 ISSN 1213-3825. [Europen Conference on Acoustic Emission Testing /32./. 07.09.2016-09.09.2016, Praha] Institutional support: RVO:61388998 Keywords : calibration * time reversal * transducer * frequency response Subject RIV: BI - Acoustics

  10. Variation of reverberation time with quantity of absorbers in an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An experimental investigation of reverberation of sound at frequencies of 500 and 1000Hz in a room of 35.27m3 has been carried out using B & K Type acoustic instruments. Varied amount of Celotex ceiling board was used as the sound absorber. The result showed that the reverberation time falls progressively with ...

  11. Time series requirements and trends of temperature and precipitation extremes over Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioravanti, Guido; Desiato, Franco; Fraschetti, Piero; Perconti, Walter; Piervitali, Emanuela

    2013-04-01

    Extreme climate events have strong impacts on society and economy; accordingly,the knowledge of their trends on long period is crucial for the definition and implementation of a national adaptation strategy to climate change. The Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) identified a set of temperature and precipitation indices suited to investigate variability and trends of climate extremes. It is well known that extreme indices calculation is more demanding than first and second order statistics are: daily temperature and precipitation data are required and strict constrains in terms of continuity and completeness must be met. In addition, possible dishomogeneities affecting time series must be identified and adjusted before indices calculation. When metadata are not available, statistical methods can provide scientist a relevant support for homogeneity check; however, ad-hoc decision criteria (sometimes subjective) must be applied whenever contradictory results characterize different statistical homogeneity tests. In this work, a set of daily (minimum and maximum) temperature and precipitation time series for the period 1961-2011 were selected in order to guarantee a quite uniform spatial distribution of the stations over the Italian territory and according to the afore-said continuity and completeness criteria. Following the method described by Vincent, the homogeneity check of temperature time series was run at annual level. Two well-documented tests were employed (F-test and T-test), both implemented in the free R-package RHtestV3. The Vincent method was also used for a further investigation of time series homogeneity. Temperature dishomogeneous series were discarded. For precipitation series, no homogeneity check was run. The selected series were employed at daily level to calculate a reliable set of extreme indices. For each station, a linear model was employed for indices trend estimation. Finally, single station results were

  12. Gender ratio trends over time in multiple sclerosis patients from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, J I; Patrucco, L; MIguez, J; Sinay, V; Cassara, F Pagani; Cáceres, F; Liguori, N Fernandez; Saladino, M L; Deri, N; Jaacks, G; Marcilla, M Parada; Arrigoni, M I; Correale, J; Fiol, M; Ysrraelit, M C; Carrá, A; Curbelo, M C; Martinez, A; Steinberg, J; Bestoso, S; Hryb, J P; Di Pace, J L; Perassolo, M B; Contentti, E Carnero; Caride, A; Lopez, P A; Martinez, C; Reich, E; Giunta, D; Cristiano, E

    2017-04-01

    Several studies in multiple sclerosis (MS) suggest a trend of increasing disease frequency in women during the last decades. A direct comparison of gender ratio trends among MS populations from Argentina remains to be carried out. The objective of the study was to compare gender ratio trends, over a 50-year span in MS populations from Argentina. multicenter study that included patients from 14 MS Centers of Argentina. Patients with definite MS with birth years ranging from 1940 to 1989 were included. Gender ratios were calculated by five decades based on year of birth and were adjusted for the F/M born-alive ratio derived from the Argentinean national registry of births. The F/M ratios were calculated using a multivariate logistic regression per five decades by the year of birth approach. Analyses were performed using Stata 10.1. 1069 patients were included. Gender ratios showed a significant increase from the first to the last decade in the whole MS sample (from 1.8 to 2.7; p value for trend=0.023). The Gender ratio did not show differences considering MS subtype. our study showed a modest increase of the F/M ratio (from 1.8 to 2.7) over time among patients affected by MS in Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Trends over time in the risk of driver death: what if vehicle designs had not improved?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Lund, Adrian K

    2006-12-01

    Passenger vehicle driver death rates per million vehicle registrations declined steadily during calendar years 1985-2004. The present study sought to separate the effect of vehicle design changes from this trend. Restricting the trend to a fixed set of model years removed the vehicle design effects, but there were still effects due to vehicle aging. Risk of driver death was found to increase each year vehicles aged, probably due to changes in vehicle use patterns. After separating out the vehicle design effects and making adjustments for the vehicle age effects, a different picture emerged of trends in death rates over time. Absent the vehicle design changes, the historical decline in driver fatality risk would have ended in 1993, with risk climbing ever since. This underlying trend has been obscured by changes in the vehicle fleet. The push for vehicle improvements has been worthwhile and can be credited with saving thousands of lives. However, the analysis shows that the gains in occupant protection from vehicle design improvements have been offset partially by an increasingly risky environment in recent years. Therefore, more attention needs to be paid to programs targeting improvement in roadway design and driver behavior.

  14. Dynamics of Gaussian Wigner functions derived from a time-dependent variational principle

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poulsen, Jens Aage; Svensson, S. Karl-Mikael; Nyman, Gunnar

    2017-01-01

    By using a time-dependent variational principle formulated for Wigner phase-space functions, we obtain the optimal time-evolution for two classes of Gaussian Wigner functions, namely those of either...

  15. Age and time trends in the diet of young children: results of the DONALD study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foterek, Kristina; Hilbig, Annett; Kersting, Mathilde; Alexy, Ute

    2016-03-01

    To describe age and time trends of energy and macronutrient intake during infancy and toddlerhood and to set a special focus on dietary practices with respect to milk, complementary food, and family food intake. Three-day dietary records (n = 2241) collected at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months (480 subjects) between 2004 and 2013 from the ongoing open cohort DONALD (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed) study were evaluated using repeated-measures regression analyses for trend analysis. Significant age trends were found for macronutrients with a decrease in fat intake (% of energy intake, %E) and an increase in carbohydrates (%E) and protein (%E). Exclusive and partial breastfeeding rates at 3 and 6 months did not differ between 2004 and 2008 and 2009 and 2013 (p > 0.05). Macronutrient pattern was virtually stable over time, whereas food group intake (% of total food intake excluding beverages, % TFI) changed significantly during the study period. Breast/bottle milk (% TFI) intake increased over time in the toddler subgroup, whereas family food (% TFI) decreased. Our data demonstrate a period of stagnation in the last 10 years with respect to breastfeeding duration in infancy. Further breastfeeding promotion in Germany is needed to continue the favourable progress of the previous decades. In toddlerhood, breast/bottle milk remains a substantial part of the diet and has increased during the last 10 years. Parents should be encouraged to implement healthy eating habits during early toddlerhood and to facilitate their child's participation in appropriate family meals.

  16. Variation of tumour radiosensitivity with time after anaesthetic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nias, A.H.W.; Perry, P.M. (Saint Thomas' Hospital, London (UK). Richard Dimbleby Research Lab.)

    1989-10-01

    Transplanted C{sub 3}H mouse mammary tumours were given single doses of X irradiation in air or oxygen at 1 atmosphere (atm) with or without anaesthesia of recipient mice by ketamine and diazepam. The radiation response to single doses of 25 Gy was determined in terms of time taken to reach 3.5 times the treatment volume. Under all conditions there was more growth delay in tumours irradiated in pure oxygen than in air. In air and oxygen, the radiation response for anaestheitized animals tended to fall below the level for non-anaesthetized ones when only 10 min had elapsed after administration of anaesthesia. After 25 min, the response in air was back to the level for non-anaesthetized animals but the oxygen group then showed significant sensitization compared with the oxygen without anaesthetic group. After 40 min, the air group showed slight sensitization and the oxygen group still showed significant sensitization by the anaesthetic. (author).

  17. Stormtime electric fields in the inner magnetosphere: local time variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, D.; Wygant, J.

    2003-04-01

    The large-scale quasi-static electric field in the inner magnetosphere during major storms has been shown to be a major contributor to ring current energization and plasmaspheric transport [Rowland and Wygant; 1998, Wygant et al., 1998]. Previous studies showing that the convection field can reach magnitudes of 6-8 frac{mV}{m} and potential drops of 80 kV deep in the inner magnetosphere have been limited to the premidnight and dusk local time sectors. We will draw upon electric field measurements from the Polar spacecraft made at other local times during major geomagnetic storms to show how these premidnight observations fit into the general context of enhanced electric fields and particle transport during disturbed intervals. We have identified several main and recovery phase passes in which Polar was in the inner and middle magnetosphere (L=3 to L=10). We will determine potential drops along these trajectories and display these as a function of local time. We will interpret these results in the light of recent results from {IMAGE}, in which {ENA} measurements suggest a stagnation point near dusk, and in terms of the {MIT} radar results, which show the global character of the convection pattern, based on ground-based measurements. We will also assess the electric fields measured by Polar in situ to predictions of the Rice Convection Model.

  18. Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

    2013-09-17

    To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

  19. Trends and Patterns of Geographic Variation in Cardiovascular Mortality Among US Counties, 1980–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Gregory A.; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W.; Morozoff, Chloe; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

    2017-01-01

    IMPORTANCE In the United States, regional variation in cardiovascular mortality is well-known but county-level estimates for all major cardiovascular conditions have not been produced. OBJECTIVE To estimate age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases by county. DESIGN AND SETTING Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 through 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from all cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, cardiomyopathy, atrial fibrillation and flutter, rheumatic heart disease, aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease, endocarditis, and all other cardiovascular diseases combined. EXPOSURES The 3110 counties of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. RESULTS From 1980 to 2014, cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death in the United States, although the mortality rate declined from 507.4 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 252.7 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014, a relative decline of 50.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 49.5%–50.8%). In 2014, cardiovascular diseases accounted for more than 846 000 deaths (95% UI, 827–865 thousand deaths) and 11.7 million years of life lost (95% UI, 11.6–11.9 million years of life lost). The gap in age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates between counties at the 10th and 90th percentile declined 14.6% from 172.1 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014 (posterior probability of decline >99.9%). In 2014, the ratio between counties at the 90th and 10th percentile was 2.0 for ischemic heart disease (119.1 vs

  20. Time trends in intracranial bleeding associated with direct oral anticoagulants: a 5-year cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Kerstin; Bahl, Bharat; Latrous, Meriem; Scaffidi Argentina, Sarina; Thompson, Jesse; Chatha, Aasil Ayyaz; Castellucci, Lana; Stiell, Ian G

    2015-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban were approved for stroke prevention. Phase III studies have shown a lower risk of intracranial bleeding with these direct oral anticoagulants than with warfarin; however, there is a lack of real-life data to validate this. We analyzed time trends in atraumatic intracranial bleeding from 2009 to 2013 among patients prescribed oral anticoagulants and those not prescribed oral anticoagulants. We used ICD-10-CA (enhanced Canadian version of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems) codes to identify all patients with atraumatic intracranial bleeding who presented to our neurosurgical centre (serving a population of more than 1.2 million). Trained researchers extracted data on anticoagulant medications used in the week before diagnosis of the intracranial bleed. Provincial prescription data for oral anticoagulants were obtained from IMS Brogan CompuScript Market Dynamics. The primary outcome was the time trend in incident intracranial bleeds associated with oral anticoagulation during the period 2009-2013. The secondary outcomes were the time trend in intracranial bleeds not associated with oral anticoagulation and the provincial prescribing patterns for oral anticoagulants during the same period. A total of 2050 patients presented with atraumatic intracranial bleeds during the study period. Of the 371 (18%) prescribed an anticoagulant in the week before presentation, 335 were prescribed an oral anticoagulant. There was an increasing time trend in intracranial bleeding associated with oral anticoagulants (p = 0.009; 6 additional events per year) and in intracranial bleeding not associated with oral anticoagulation (p = 0.06). During 2013, prescriptions for warfarin decreased to 70% of all oral anticoagulant prescriptions in the province, whereas those for dabigatran and rivaroxaban increased to 17% and 12%, respectively. We observed increasing

  1. CALENDAR VARIATION MODEL FOR FORECASTING TIME SERIES DATA WITH ISLAMIC CALENDAR EFFECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to develop a statistical model for explaining and forecasting the time series that contains Islamic Calendar effect. In time series literature, calendar variation is defined as a periodic and recurrent pattern with variation length period that usually caused by cultures and religions of people in a certain area. In Indonesia, the effect of the Eids holiday in many daily activities, such as transportation, inflation and consumption, is one example of calendar variations. This holiday happens on different month after three years or shift to previous month after at the same month on three years. This paper evaluates the disadvantage of seasonal classical time series model, such as Winter’s, Decomposition and ARIMA models, and develops a Calendar Variation model for forecasting time series that contain Islamic Calendar Effect. In this research, a real data about monthly sales of sardines are used as a case study. The results show that classical time series models, such as Winter’s, Decomposition and ARIMA models, cannot describe the calendar variation effect and yield invalid and unreliable forecast, particularly at the time (month when the calendar variation happens. On the contrary, Calendar Variation model is a model that can explain precisely the impact of the calendar variation effect and gives valid and reliable forecasts.

  2. Enigma variations: unraveling interprofessional education in time and place.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Hugh

    2013-09-01

    Designing the learning environment for the health care professionals of tomorrow is less than complete unless and until it includes interprofessional education (IPE). Progress depends on establishing a shared understanding of IPE between architects and teachers as the dialogue between them during the forum confirmed. My brief presentation provided no more than the catalyst. This paper goes further. It locates IPE within a coherent, consistent and pervasive rationale distilled over time from its roots in different countries and fields of practice, including the formulation of objectives, the adaptation of a repertoire of learning methods, the adoption of a definition and values and the framing of principle and competency-based outcomes, before alerting readers to some of the many complexities during the planning process.

  3. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  4. Effect of variation in signal amplitude and transit time on reliability analysis of ultrasonic time of flight diffraction characterization of vertical and inclined cracks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, S K

    2014-03-01

    The variation of amplitude and transit time of the diffracted signal from the crack-tip in complex geometry components and their resulting effect on the probability of detection (POD) and probability of sizing (POS) was studied. The diffracted signal amplitude has been evaluated from the standard expressions for diffraction coefficient, spatial attenuation and the transit time from the respective mathematical models for both vertical and inclined cracks. The same parameters namely the signal amplitude and the transit time have been measured through experiments conducted on simulated test specimens. It has been observed that the analytical and experimental results compare well with each other. Based on this result the trend and shape (width of the transition zone) of the POD/POS curves can be predicted. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). We found that the serum levels of all seven PFAAs decreased during the period from 2008 to 2013; on average PFHxS decreased with 7.0% per year, PFHpS with 14.......8%, PFOS with 9.3%, PFOA with 9.1%, PFNA with 6.2%, PFDA with 6.3%, and PFUnA with 7.1% per year. Adjustment for maternal age, body mass index (BMI), educational level and gestational age at blood sampling did not change the time trends much. To our knowledge, we are the first to report decreasing trends...

  6. Latitudinal and Seasonal Investigations of Storm-Time TEC Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adimula, I. A.; Oladipo, O. A.; Adebiyi, S. J.

    2016-07-01

    The ionosphere responds markedly and unpredictably to varying magnetospheric energy inputs caused by solar disturbances on the geospace. Knowledge of the impact of the space weather events on the ionosphere is important to assess the environmental effect on the operations of ground- and space-based technologies. Thus, global positioning system (GPS) measurements from the international GNSS service (IGS) database were used to investigate the ionospheric response to 56 geomagnetic storm events at six different latitudes comprising the northern and southern hemispheres in the Afro-European sector. Statistical distributions of total electron content (TEC) response show that during the main phase of the storms, enhancement of TEC is more pronounced in most of the seasons, regardless of the latitude and hemisphere. However, a strong seasonal dependence appears in the TEC response during the recovery phase. Depletion of TEC is majorly observed at the high latitude stations, and its appearance at lower latitudes is seasonally dependent. In summer hemisphere, the depletion of TEC is more pronounced in nearly all the latitudinal bands. In winter hemisphere, enhancement as well as depletion of TEC is observed over the high latitude, while enhancement is majorly observed over the mid and low latitudes. In equinoxes, the storm-time TEC distribution shows a fairly consistent characteristic with the summer distribution, particularly in the northern hemisphere.

  7. Studies on CO variation and trends over South Africa and the Indian Ocean using TES satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoulwahab M. Toihir

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we used measurements from the tropospheric emission spectrometer aboard the Earth Observing System’s Aura satellite over South Africa, Madagascar and Reunion Island to investigate variations and trends in tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO over 5 years, from 2005 to 2009, and at 47 pressure levels from 1000 hPa to 10 hPa. We believe that the study is the first of its kind to address the use of space-borne data for CO distribution over southern Africa. Maximum CO was recorded during spring and minimum during summer. Positive anomalies were identified in 2005 and 2007 during the spring and negative anomalies in the beginning of the year (especially in 2006, 2008 and 2009. The estimated trends based on a linear regression method on inter-annual distribution predicted a decreasing rate of 2.1% per year over South Africa, 1.8% per year over Madagascar and 1.7% per year over Reunion Island. The surface CO measurements made at Cape Point station (34.35°S, 18.48°E showed an average decline of 0.1 ppb per month, which corresponded to 2.4% of the average annual mean for the studied period. The observed decrease in CO was linked to the La Niña event which occurred in 2006 and 2008 and a declining rate of biomass burning activity in the southern hemisphere over the observation period. TES measurements are in agreement with ground-based measurements and can be used with confidence to complement CO measurements for future analyses over the southern tropics and middle latitude.

  8. Asthma hospitalisation trends from 2010 to 2015: variation among rural and metropolitan Australians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Terry

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Asthma remains a leading cause of illness, where primary care can assist to reduce hospitalisations through prevention, controlling acute episodes, and overall management of asthma. In Victoria, Asthma hospitalisations were as high as 3.1 hospitalisations per 1000 population in 1993–94. The primary aims of this study are to: determine if changes in asthma hospitalisations have occurred between 2010 and 2015; determine the key factors that impact asthma hospitalisation over time; and verify whether rural and urban asthma hospitalisations are disparate. A secondary aim of the study is to compare 2010–2015 results with asthma data prior to 2010. Methods Hospital separation data from 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2015 were obtained through the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset and other agencies. Data included sex, age, Local Government Area, private or public patient, length of stay, and type of discharge. Asthma and predictor variables were analysed according to hospital separation rates after adjusting for smoking and sex. Hierarchical multiple regression examined the association between asthma and predictor variables. Results During the study period, 49,529 asthma hospital separations occurred, of which 77.5% were in metropolitan hospitals, 55.4% hospital separations were aged 0–14 years, and 21.7% were privately funded. State-wide hospital separations were 1.85 per 1000 population and were consistently higher in metropolitan compared to rural areas (1.93 vs 1.64 per 1000 population. When data among metropolitan adults aged 15 and over were analysed, an increase in the proportion of smokers in the population was reflected by an increase in the number of hospital separations (Adj OR 1.035. Further, among rural and metropolitan children aged 0–14 the only predictor of asthma hospital separations was sex, where metropolitan male children had higher odds of separation than metropolitan females of the same age (Adj OR 4

  9. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in the Netherlands in 1989-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siesling, Sabine; van der Aa, Maaike A; Coebergh, Jan W W; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-05-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989-2003 and speculates on the reasons for the observations. From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, World standardized incidence rates per municipality were smoothed calculating weighted averages for each 2 km by 2 km grid of the population mid-points of neighbouring municipalities and presented as map animations. Spatial relative changes in incidence were estimated by comparing the periods 1989-1994 and 1998-2003. Complete time-space trends can be found as map animations on http://maps.ikcnet.nl. The incidence of cervical and stomach cancer (for both sexes) decreased, being higher in the cities than in the rural areas during all periods and contrasting the trends in colorectal and breast cancer. The relative increase in incidence of lung cancer among females was highest in the rural north, but the incidence remained higher in the cities of the mid-west Netherlands. For males, there was a marked decrease in lung cancer incidence across the country since 1991. Incidence of melanoma increased, rates being twice as high in the coastal area than in the cities. Prostate cancer maps largely replicated the known history of PSA-testing in the Netherlands. Time-space cancer incidence patterns gave insight into effects of changes in exposure to risk determinants and early detection. The maps illustrate marked potential for cancer prevention at the national and regional level. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  10. Trends and variations of pH and hardness in a typical semi-arid river in a monsoon climate region during 1985-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shaonan; Li, Xuyong; Jiang, Yan; Zhao, Hongtao; Yang, Lei

    2016-09-01

    The rapid growth of urbanization and industrialization, along with dramatic climate change, has strongly influenced hydrochemical characteristics in recent decades in China and thus could cause the variation of pH and general total hardness of a river. To explore such variations and their potential influencing factors in a river of the monsoon climate region, we analyzed a long-term monitoring dataset of pH, SO4 (2-), NOx, general total hardness (GH), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), and Cl(-) in surface water and groundwater in the Luan River basin from 1985 to 2009. The nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to test the long-term trends of pH and GH. Relationship between the affecting factors, pH and GH were discussed. Results showed that pH showed a decreasing trend and that GH had an increasing trend in the long-term. Seasonal variation of pH and GH was mainly due to the typical monsoon climate. Results of correlation analysis showed that the unit area usage amounts of chemical fertilizer, NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were negatively correlated with pH in groundwater. In addition, mining activity affected GH spatial variation. Acid deposition, drought, and increasing the use of chemical fertilizers would contribute to the acidification trend, and mining activities would affect the spatial variation of GH. Variations of precipitation and runoff in semi-arid monsoon climate areas had significant influences on the pH and GH. Our findings implied that human activities played a critical role in river acidification in the semi-arid monsoon climate region of northern China.

  11. Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Johnathan; Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Da Zhou, Charlie; Marshall, Dominic C; Sylianteng, Guia D C; Dela Rosa, Phyllis G; Miguel, Viveka A; Raine, Rosalind; King, Lawrence P; Maruthappu, Mahiben

    2017-11-15

    Since 2010, England has experienced relative constraints in public expenditure on healthcare (PEH) and social care (PES). We sought to determine whether these constraints have affected mortality rates. We collected data on health and social care resources and finances for England from 2001 to 2014. Time trend analyses were conducted to compare the actual mortality rates in 2011-2014 with the counterfactual rates expected based on trends before spending constraints. Fixed-effects regression analyses were conducted using annual data on PES and PEH with mortality as the outcome, with further adjustments for macroeconomic factors and resources. Analyses were stratified by age group, place of death and lower-tier local authority (n=325). Mortality rates to 2020 were projected based on recent trends. Spending constraints between 2010 and 2014 were associated with an estimated 45 368 (95% CI 34 530 to 56 206) higher than expected number of deaths compared with pre-2010 trends. Deaths in those aged ≥60 and in care homes accounted for the majority. PES was more strongly linked with care home and home mortality than PEH, with each £10 per capita decline in real PES associated with an increase of 5.10 (3.65-6.54) (pconstraints, especially PES, are associated with a substantial mortality gap. We suggest that spending should be targeted on improving care delivered in care homes and at home; and maintaining or increasing nurse numbers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  12. Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvador-Piedrafita, Maria; Malmusi, Davide; Borrell, Carme

    In Spain, responsibility for care of old people and those in situations of dependency is assumed by families, and has an unequal social distribution according to gender and socioeconomic level. This responsibility has negative health effects on the carer. In 2006, the Dependency Law recognised the obligation of the State to provide support. This study analyses time trends in health inequalities attributable to caregiving under this new law. Study of trends using two cross-sectional samples from the 2006 and 2012 editions of the Spanish National Health Survey (27,922 and 19,995 people, respectively). We compared fair/poor self-rated health, poor mental health (GHQ-12 >2), back pain, and the use of psychotropic drugs between non-carers, carers sharing care with other persons, and those providing care alone. We obtain prevalence ratios by fitting robust Poisson regression models. We observed no change in the social profile of carers according to gender or social class. Among women, the difference in all health indicators between carers and non-carers tended to decrease among those sharing care but not among lone carers. Inequalities tend to decrease slightly in both groups of men carers. Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  14. Time and deprivation trends in incidence of primary liver cancer subtypes in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konfortion, Julie; Coupland, Victoria H; Kocher, Hemant M; Allum, William; Grocock, Melanie J; Jack, Ruth H

    2014-08-01

    Primary liver cancer consists of distinct subtypes with differing aetiology so it is valuable to study the incidence of these subtypes separately. This study aims to investigate time and socio-economic deprivation trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer subtypes in England, identifying the burden in the population. Data were extracted from the population-based National Cancer Data Repository (NCDR) for patients diagnosed with primary liver cancer between 1990 and 2009. Subtypes were defined by the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes: liver cell carcinoma (C22.0), intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma (C22.1), other (C22.2-C22.4, C22.7) and unspecified (C22.9). A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the main histological subtypes of liver cell carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct using the 2nd edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-2). Male and female age-standardized incidence rates per 100 000 World standard population were calculated for each year and for the period 1999-2009 by socio-economic deprivation quintile. A total of 40 945 patients were diagnosed with primary liver cancer between 1990 and 2009. Liver cell carcinoma incidence increased in men from 0.63 in 1990 to 2.48 per 100 000 in 2009. While incidence was low in women, rates increased from 0.18 to 0.59, respectively. Intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma incidence increased between 1990 and 2009 from 0.40 to 1.25 per 100 000 in men, and from 0.28 to 1.08 in women. Incidence of the other liver cancer subtype remained low throughout the study period at less than 0.3 per 100 000 in each year in both men and women. The highest rate of liver cell carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma was generally in men and women resident in the most deprived areas between 1999 and 2009. The largest difference by deprivation quintile was observed for liver cell carcinoma in men, where the incidence was more than double in the

  15. Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

    2009-01-01

    . There was significant improvement of performance after 6 months. APOE-epsilon4 genotype was the only independent factor significantly predicting less improvement. CONCLUSION: The presence of the APOE-epsilon4 allele predicts less recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury.......OBJECTIVE: To investigate relations between predictors and outcomes, and especially to identify predictors influencing the time trend in recovery after mild traumatic brain injury. METHODS: We included 59 patients with mild head injury in a prospective study. They underwent comprehensive assessment...

  16. Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Proville

    Full Text Available We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data-the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP dataset-surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact.

  17. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...... in simulated data. Where protection bias is suspected, the authors demonstrate use of 2 multiple imputation methods to generate realizations for the missing TTP values for accidental pregnancies. Simulation studies show that both methods successfully reduce or eliminate protection bias. The authors also...

  18. Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proville, Jeremy; Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Wagner, Gernot

    2017-01-01

    We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data-the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) dataset-surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse) and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact.

  19. Space-time variability of floods across Germany: Gradual trends, step changes and fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Bruno; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Schröter, Kai

    2015-04-01

    The space-time variability of flood magnitude and frequency across Germany at the interannual and decadal time scale is analyzed and interpreted. The analyses are based on flood time series of 68 catchments for a joint period of 74 years. The catchments are distributed across Germany and show different flood regimes. Different statistical tests are applied to investigate different types of flood changes: gradual trends, step changes and fluctuations. In addition, changes in the mean behavior and in the variability are studied. A focus is placed on the spatial stability of changes, i.e. answering the question to which extent flood changes are coherent across Germany. The joint analysis of changes for a large number of catchments allows interpreting the causes of the observed changes. For instance, climate-related flood changes are expected to show a different behavior than changes caused by river training or land-use change.

  20. Feynman’s clock, a new variational principle, and parallel-in-time quantum dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClean, Jarrod R.; Parkhill, John A.; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a discrete-time variational principle inspired by the quantum clock originally proposed by Feynman and use it to write down quantum evolution as a ground-state eigenvalue problem. The construction allows one to apply ground-state quantum many-body theory to quantum dynamics, extending the reach of many highly developed tools from this fertile research area. Moreover, this formalism naturally leads to an algorithm to parallelize quantum simulation over time. We draw an explicit connection between previously known time-dependent variational principles and the time-embedded variational principle presented. Sample calculations are presented, applying the idea to a hydrogen molecule and the spin degrees of freedom of a model inorganic compound, demonstrating the parallel speedup of our method as well as its flexibility in applying ground-state methodologies. Finally, we take advantage of the unique perspective of this variational principle to examine the error of basis approximations in quantum dynamics. PMID:24062428

  1. Trends and Variation in the Utilization and Diagnostic Yield of Chest Imaging for Medicare Patients With Suspected Pulmonary Embolism in the Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatesh, Arjun K; Agha, Leila; Abaluck, Jason; Rothenberg, Craig; Kabrhel, Christopher; Raja, Ali S

    2018-01-24

    The purpose of this study is to assess trends and variation in chest CT utilization in the emergency department (ED) and its diagnostic yield for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) among a national sample of Medicare beneficiaries. The relationship between hospital and provider characteristics is also discussed. We conducted an observational analysis of Medicare beneficiaries evaluated in the ED for suspected PE from 2000 to 2009. Standard Medicare analytic files representing a 20% sample of fee-for-service beneficiaries were linked to the American Hospital Association Annual Survey of Hospitals, American Medical Association Physician Masterfile, Medicare Physician Identification and Eligibility Registry, and Dartmouth Atlas Project to calculate geographic- and physician-level chest CT utilization (i.e., the proportion of ED visits involving chest CT examination for suspected PE) and diagnostic yield (i.e., the proportion of chest CT examinations with a positive PE diagnosis). Of 2.5 million ED visits, 2.5% (n = 164,274) included chest CT for suspected PE; 6.2% visits (n = 10,121) resulted in positive findings for PE. Between 2000 and 2009, chest CT utilization increased fivefold. Geographic variation in CT utilization (median, 2.38%; interquartile range [IQR], 1.91-2.92%) and diagnostic yield (median, 6.31%; IQR, 5.11-7.66%) was observed between 306 hospital referral regions. Physician use of imaging was explained by greater experience (lower utilization and higher yield) and emergency medicine board certification (lower utilization and equivalent yield). CT utilization in the ED for suspected PE has steadily risen, whereas diagnostic yields have declined over time. Wide variation in practice is observed at the physician and geographic levels and is explained by several physician and hospital characteristics. Taken together, our findings suggest a substantial inefficiency of chest CT use and substantial opportunities for improvement.

  2. Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leslie, H.A.; Leonards, P.E.G.; Shore, J.F.; Walker, L.A.; Bersuder, P.R.C.; Morris, S.; Allchin, C.R.; de Boer, J.

    2011-01-01

    The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in

  3. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  4. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, Anne

    2014-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  5. Demonstrating trend reversal of groundwater quality in relation to time of recharge determined by 3H/3He

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, A.; Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    Recent EU legislation is directed to reverse the upward trends in the concentrations of agricultural pollutants in groundwater. However, uncertainty of the groundwater travel time towards the screens of the groundwater quality monitoring networks complicates the demonstration of trend reversal. We

  6. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  7. A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

    2004-09-15

    The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

  8. Training and evaluation of neural networks for multi-variate time series processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Torben L.; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1995-01-01

    We study the training and generalization for multi-variate time series processing. It is suggested to used a quasi-maximum likelihood approach rather than the standard sum of squared errors, thus taking dependencies among the errors of the individual time series into account. This may lead...... to improved generalization performance. Further, we extend the optimal brain damage pruning technique to the multi-variate case. A key ingredient is an algebraic expression for the generalization ability of a multi-variate model. The variability of the suggested techniques are successfully demonstrated...

  9. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Giuseppe

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Age-Period-Cohort (APC analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. Results We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM. For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM ban for all ruminants (1994. Conclusion The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  10. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  11. Time trends in fish populations in metropolitan France: insights from national monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulet, N; Beaulaton, L; Dembski, S

    2011-12-01

    Using the electrofishing database of the French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environment (Onema), the time trends of 48 freshwater fish taxa at 590 sites monitored for at least 8 years from 1990 to 2009 were investigated. The results demonstrated that species richness increased steadily from the beginning of the monitoring period. This is congruent with the finding that the number of species displaying a significant increase in spatial distribution or abundance was greater than those showing a significant decrease. Some species, however, had declined both in occurrence and abundance, e.g. tench Tinca tinca, common bream Abramis brama, brown trout Salmo trutta and European eel Anguilla anguilla. The species showing the most spectacular colonization were non-native, e.g. topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva, wels catfish Silurus glanis and asp Aspius aspius. The time trends in population density were related to the maximal body size, habitat requirement, occurrence and abundance and the status (i.e. native or exotic) but not to the spawning temperature. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  12. Time Trends in Food Allergy Diagnoses, Epinephrine Orders, and Epinephrine Administrations in New York City Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuille, Elizabeth; Lawrence, Cheryl; Volel, Caroline; Sicherer, Scott H; Wang, Julie

    2017-11-01

    To assess time trends in food allergy diagnoses, epinephrine autoinjector (EAI) prescriptions, and EAI administrations in the school setting. In this retrospective study, deidentified student data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which oversees >1 million students in 1800 schools, were provided to investigators. Data from school years 2007-2008 to 2012-2013 pertaining to diagnoses of food allergy, student-specific EAI orders, and EAI administrations among students in New York City were analyzed for trends over time, via the use of ORs and χ2 calculation. The prevalences of providing physician documentation of food allergy and EAI orders, and the incidence of EAI administrations, all increased approximately 3-fold over the years of the study. Of 337 EAI administrations, more than one-half used stock EAI, and three-quarters were for students without a student-specific order preceding the incident. The rise in food allergy diagnoses, EAI prescriptions, and EAI administrations suggest either a true increase in allergic disease, increased reporting, and/or, in the case of EAI administrations, increased appropriate use. As the majority of EAI administrations used stock supply, availability of nonstudent-specific stock EAI appears vital to management of anaphylaxis in schools. Collaboration between physicians, families, and schools is needed to identify students at risk for severe allergic reactions and to ensure preparedness and availability of EAI in the event of anaphylaxis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. National time trends in congenital heart defects, Denmark, 1977-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyen, Nina; Poulsen, Gry; Boyd, Heather A; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Jensen, Peter K A; Melbye, Mads

    2009-03-01

    Time trends in congenital heart defects (CHD) by specific phenotype and with long follow-up time are rarely available for an entire population. We present trends in national CHD prevalences over the past 3 decades. We linked information from the National Patient Register, the Causes of Death Register, and the Danish Cytogenetic Central Register for all persons born in Denmark, 1977 to 2005, and registered in the Civil Registration System, yielding a cohort of 1,763,591 persons-18,207 with CHD. Individuals with CHDs were classified by phenotype (heterotaxia, conotruncal defect, atrioventricular septal defect, anomalous pulmonary venous return, left and right ventricular outflow tract obstructions, septal defects, complex defects, associations, patent ductus arteriosus, unspecified, and other specified) by combining International Classification of Diseases codes using a hierarchical approach. From 1977 to 2005, the overall CHD birth prevalence increased from 73 to 113 per 10,000 live births. Generally, prevalence increased for defects diagnosed in infancy, until 1996-1997, and then stabilized. For each 5-year interval, isolated septal defects and severe defects increased by 22% (95% CI, 20%-25%) and 5% (95% CI, 4%-7%), respectively. Among the severe defects, conotruncal defects and atrioventricular septal defect showed the largest prevalence increases. Women had a lower prevalence of severe defects during the 1980s. The CHD prevalence increase was unchanged when persons with extracardiac defects or chromosomal aberrations were excluded. CHD birth prevalence increased from the beginning of the 1980s but stabilized in the late 1990s.

  14. Time trends of chest pain symptoms and health related quality of life in coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henriksson Peter

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is at present a lack of knowledge of time trends in health related quality of life (HRQL in common patients with coronary artery disease (CAD treated in ordinary care. The objective of this study is to assess and compare time trends of health related quality of life (HRQL and chest pain in patients with coronary artery disease. Methods 253 consecutive CAD patients in Stockholm County, Sweden – 197 males/56 females; 60 ± 8 years – were followed during two years. Perceived chest pain symptoms and three global assessments of HRQL were assessed at baseline, after one and after two years. EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D with a predefined focus on function and symptoms; the broader tapping global estimates of HRQL; EuroQol VAS (EQ-VAS and Cardiac Health Profile (CHP were used. Chest pain was ranked according to Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS. Change in HRQL was analysed by a repeated measurements ANOVA and chest pain symptoms were analysed by Friedman non-parametric ANOVA. Results Perceived chest pain decreased during the two years (p Conclusion HRQL did not increase despite a reduction in the severity of chest pain during two years. This implies that the major part of HRQL in these consecutive ordinary patients with CAD is unresponsive to change in chest pain symptoms.

  15. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Ugalde, Pilar Font; del Campo, Eleonor Rivin; Romero, Ana Otero; Martín, María del Mar Pérez; Arjona, Juan Manuel Roldán; Paredes, María Martínez

    2013-02-01

    Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Study of Track Irregularity Time Series Calibration and Variation Pattern at Unit Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaolong Jia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on problems existing in track irregularity time series data quality, this paper first presents abnormal data identification, data offset correction algorithm, local outlier data identification, and noise cancellation algorithms. And then proposes track irregularity time series decomposition and reconstruction through the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction approach. Finally, the patterns and features of track irregularity standard deviation data sequence in unit sections are studied, and the changing trend of track irregularity time series is discovered and described.

  17. Competing bounds on the present-day time variation of fundamental constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dent, Thomas; Stern, Steffen; Wetterich, Christof

    2009-04-01

    We compare the sensitivity of a recent bound on time variation of the fine structure constant from optical clocks with bounds on time-varying fundamental constants from atomic clocks sensitive to the electron-to-proton mass ratio, from radioactive decay rates in meteorites, and from the Oklo natural reactor. Tests of the weak equivalence principle also lead to comparable bounds on present variations of constants. The “winner in sensitivity” depends on what relations exist between the variations of different couplings in the standard model of particle physics, which may arise from the unification of gauge interactions. Weak equivalence principle tests are currently the most sensitive within unified scenarios. A detection of time variation in atomic clocks would favor dynamical dark energy and put strong constraints on the dynamics of a cosmological scalar field.

  18. Non-target time trend screening: a data reduction strategy for detecting emerging contaminants in biological samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plassmann, Merle M; Tengstrand, Erik; Åberg, K Magnus; Benskin, Jonathan P

    2016-06-01

    Non-targeted mass spectrometry-based approaches for detecting novel xenobiotics in biological samples are hampered by the occurrence of naturally fluctuating endogenous substances, which are difficult to distinguish from environmental contaminants. Here, we investigate a data reduction strategy for datasets derived from a biological time series. The objective is to flag reoccurring peaks in the time series based on increasing peak intensities, thereby reducing peak lists to only those which may be associated with emerging bioaccumulative contaminants. As a result, compounds with increasing concentrations are flagged while compounds displaying random, decreasing, or steady-state time trends are removed. As an initial proof of concept, we created artificial time trends by fortifying human whole blood samples with isotopically labelled standards. Different scenarios were investigated: eight model compounds had a continuously increasing trend in the last two to nine time points, and four model compounds had a trend that reached steady state after an initial increase. Each time series was investigated at three fortification levels and one unfortified series. Following extraction, analysis by ultra performance liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry, and data processing, a total of 21,700 aligned peaks were obtained. Peaks displaying an increasing trend were filtered from randomly fluctuating peaks using time trend ratios and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. The first approach was successful in flagging model compounds spiked at only two to three time points, while the latter approach resulted in all model compounds ranking in the top 11 % of the peak lists. Compared to initial peak lists, a combination of both approaches reduced the size of datasets by 80-85 %. Overall, non-target time trend screening represents a promising data reduction strategy for identifying emerging bioaccumulative contaminants in biological samples. Graphical abstract

  19. An effective wavelet strategy for the trend prediction of physiological time series with application to pHealth systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, T; Paredes, S; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J

    2013-01-01

    This work proposes a wavelet decomposition based scheme to estimate the evolution trend of physiological time series. The scheme does not involve the explicit development of a model and is essentially supported on the hypothesis that future evolution of a biosignal can be estimated from similar historic patterns. The strategy considers an a-trous wavelet decomposition, where the most representative trends are extracted from the historic similar patterns. Then, a set of distance-based measures able to assess the prediction likelihood of each representative trend, is introduced. From these measures and through an optimization process, a subset of these trends is selected and aggregated to derive the required time series evolution trend. The effectiveness of the methodology is validated in the prediction of blood pressure signals collected in two telemonitoring studies: TEN-HMS and MyHeart. Additionally, Friedman and Nemenyi statistics tests are implemented to rank several methods, confirming the value of the proposed strategy.

  20. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  1. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  2. Patterns of glucose lowering drugs utilization in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Carla; Guerreiro, José; de Oliveira Martins, Sofia; Raposo, João Filipe; Martins, Ana Paula; Leufkens, Hubert

    2015-12-01

    To compare the temporal trends in the consumption patterns of glucose lowering drugs (GLD) between Portugal and the Netherlands from 2004 to 2013 and to examine possible reasons behind the cross-national variation found. All GLD (ATC pharmacological subgroup A10B) were selected for analysis. Consumption data were obtained for the 10-year period. Portuguese and Dutch drug estimates were obtained from nationwide databases. The consumption of GLD increased in Portugal from 52.9 defined daily dose per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) in 2004 to 70.0 DHD in 2013 and in the Netherlands from 44.9 DHD in 2004 to 50.7 DHD in 2013. In Portugal, the use of fixed-dose combinations, especially with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4) increased remarkably and in 2013 represented almost a quarter of total GLD consumption. In the Netherlands, the use of combinations was residual. The consumption of GLD rose over the 10-year period in both countries. However, Portuguese overall consumption and costs of GLD were higher. The differentially rapid uptake of DPP-4 inhibitors in Portugal was the main driver of the cost difference. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Enteral feeding in neonates with prostaglandin-dependent congenital cardiac disease: international survey on current trends and variations in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howley, Lisa W; Kaufman, Jon; Wymore, Erica; Thureen, Patti; Magouirk, Jeff K; McNair, Bryan; da Cruz, Eduardo M

    2012-04-01

    The benefits of early enteral feeding in neonates are well known and yet the optimal pre-operative nutrition of prostaglandin-dependent infants with congenital cardiac disease remains ill-defined. This survey delineates international nutritional practices and trends with this population. Paediatric practitioners responded to an Internet-based survey that explored assessment of feeding practices, criteria for feeding readiness, medication dosing, concurrent feeding with umbilical catheters, and the observed incidence of feeding intolerance. Documented nutritional strategies were not correlated with patient outcomes. A total of 200 caregivers responded to the survey. Fewer United States caregivers (56%) reported routine pre-operative enteral feeding in prostaglandin-dependent infants when compared with caregivers outside the United States of America (93%). Of those respondents willing to feed, approximately two-thirds did not base their decision on the ductal flow direction. Numerous and heterogeneous parameters were reported to assess feeding readiness. Many caregivers report scepticism with regard to enteral feeding safety in neonates with an umbilical artery catheter, and to a lesser extent in the presence of an umbilical venous catheter. In summary, there is a prevailing lack of consensus regarding pre-operative enteral nutrition to prostaglandin-dependent neonates. This survey demonstrates noticeable variations in pre-operative nutritional practices between providers from around the world. Arguments that support or refute this practice have little support in the medical literature. Future studies should aim to demonstrate the safety of such practice and compare the outcomes of prostaglandin-dependent neonates who were pre-operatively enterally fed with those who were not.

  4. Seasonal variations and trends in weight and arm circumference of non-pregnant rural Senegalese women, 1990-1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simondon, K B; Ndiaye, T; Dia, M; Yam, A; Ndiaye, M; Marra, A; Diallo, A; Simondon, F

    2008-08-01

    To describe levels, monthly variations and trends in weight and arm circumference of non-pregnant lactating women living in the Sahel, characterized by one short yearly rainy season (July-October). A mixed unbalanced cross-sectional longitudinal observational study conducted at 3, 5, 7 and 10 months postpartum among 3869 women living in the Sine area in central Senegal who had brought their infants into dispensaries for immunization from January 1990 to February 1997, and 1-5 consecutive children per woman (26 106 visits). Mean weight was 55.7 kg (s.d.: 7.1), but it varied by 2.5-3.9 kg each year, from high means during the dry season (March-May) to low means at the end of the rainy season (September-November). The prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity (body mass index (BMI)30 kg/m(2), respectively) was 7.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.3, 7.9), 6.4% (6.1, 6.7) and 0.4% (0.3, 0.4), but varied strongly by season (P<0.0001 for all). Unlike weight, mean arm increased during the early rains, a peak season of agricultural work (+0.10 cm/month (s.d.: 0.6) from June to August vs -0.35 kg/month (s.d.: 1.1) for weight). BMI and arm circumference were positively associated with age (mean: 20.8 vs 22.2 kg/m(2) and 25.3 vs 27.4 cm, at 20-24 and 40-49 years, respectively, P<0.0001 for both). Season was a major determinant of the anthropometric status of rural African women. Negative energy balance reduced body weight from the onset of agricultural labour, while arm circumference increased during early rains, probably due to high physical activity.

  5. Population trends and variation in body mass index from 1971 to 2008 in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason P Block

    Full Text Available We examined body mass index (BMI across place and time to determine the pattern of BMI mean and standard deviation trajectories.We included participants in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS Offspring Cohort over eight waves of follow-up, from 1971 to 2008. After exclusions, the final sample size was 4569 subjects with 28,625 observations. We used multi-level models to examine population means and variation at the individual and neighborhood (census tracts levels across time with measured BMI as the outcome, controlling for individual demographics and behaviors and neighborhood poverty. Because neighborhoods accounted for limited BMI variance, we removed this level as a source of variation in final models. We examined sex-stratified models with all subjects and models stratified by sex and baseline weight classification.Mean BMI increased from 24.0 kg/m(2 at Wave 1 to 27.7 at Wave 8 for women and from 26.6 kg/m(2 to 29.0 for men. In final models, BMI variation also increased from Waves 1 to 8, with the standard deviation increasing from 4.18 kg/m(2 to 6.15 for women and 3.31 kg/m(2 to 4.73 for men. BMI means increased in parallel across most baseline BMI weight classifications, except for more rapid increases through middle-age for obese women followed by declines in the last wave. BMI standard deviations also increased in parallel across baseline BMI classifications for women, with greater divergence of BMI variance for obese men compared to other weight classifications.Over nearly 40 years, BMI mean and variation increased in parallel across most baseline weight classifications in our sample. Individual-level characteristics, especially baseline BMI, were the primary factors in rising BMI. These findings have important implications not only for understanding the sources of the obesity epidemic in the United States but also for the targeting of interventions to address the epidemic.

  6. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  7. [Population ageing and health implication. Thinking time trends in Emilia-Romagna Region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzocchetti, Angelina; Caranci, Nicola; Addis, Antonio

    2014-05-01

    Ageing is doubtless a factor characterizing population in Europe, and particularly in Emilia-Romagna, a north-east Italian region of about 4,5 million people. From 1990 to 2010 life expectancy in Emilia-Romagna has grown by about 6 years for men and 5 for women. At the same time good health life expectancy has grown even more rapidly, particularly among women. While it is expected that in 2030 the number of over-65s will have exceeded one million people, the trends in good health life expectancy is not granted. Strengthen actions aimed at increasing good health conditions promotes ageing sustainability and can feed the positive trend observed for the life expectancy in good health. The Emilia-Romagna Region takes up the demographic challenge of the coming years in the European context and promotes strategies for active and healthy ageing, working on prevention in its broadest sense and for the entire life span, with the aim of actively contribute to the achievement of the EU2020 target of an increase of two years in life expectancy in good health of European citizens.

  8. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  9. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy.Design Time trend analysis.Setting Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England.Intervention The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression.Main outcome measure Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country.Results Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued.Conclusion The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities in life

  10. Trends in Gastroenteritis-associated Mortality in the United States 1985-2005: Variations by ICD-9 and ICD-10 Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundTrends in gastroenteritis-associated mortality are changing over time with development of antibiotic resistant strains of certain pathogens, improved diagnostic methods, and changing healthcare. In 1999, ICD-10 coding was introduced for mortality records which can also ...

  11. Trends in Screen Time Behaviours in Czech Schoolchildren between 2002 and 2014: HBSC Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmundová, Dagmar; Sigmund, Erik; Bucksch, Jens; Baďura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamřík, Zdeněk

    2017-07-01

    Screen-based behaviours such as watching television or computer use are among the most prevalent sedentary behaviours adolescents spend time on. There is a lack of recent estimates on prevalence and changes in the amount of time spent on screen-based behaviour across Central and Eastern Europe. The main aim is to assess the trends in the prevalence of current recommendations for the screen time (≤2 hours per day) of school-aged children in the Czech Republic between 2002 and 2014. We used an internationally established methodology based on the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HSBC) study. Data was derived from Czech national representative samples of 11-, 13- and 15-year-olds collected in the years 2002 (N=4,065), 2006 (N=4,170), 2010 (N=3,962) and 2014 (N=4,338). The results indicated that the boys and girl surveyed in 2014 are up to two times more likely to meet the current recommendations for watching television in comparison with groups of schoolchildren of the same age surveyed in 2002. In contrast, computer use by adolescents increased markedly between 2006 and 2014. Taking total screen time into account, spending two hours per day or less on it decreased significantly among boys (OR=0.74, 95% CI=0.62-0.89) and girls (OR=0.80, 95% CI=0.70-0.92) between 2006 and 2014. As screen time is an important indicator of time spent in a sedentary way, our findings call for more interventions to reduce the time that school-aged children spend in front of screens.

  12. Spatial Divergence of Projected Trends in Streamflow Magnitude and Timing in Western United States Coastal Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, W.; Ficklin, D. L.

    2016-12-01

    Streamflow is tied to changes in climate, and the progression of climate change is likely to impact streamflow around the world. Streamflow timing is of particular concern, and though it has been shown to be shifting earlier in the year in mountainous snow-dominated watersheds in the western United States (US), streamflow in coastal rain-dominated watersheds have been shifting later in the year. Despite these differences, coastal basins have been less studied and present a key area for further study. This work explores the impacts of climate change on streamflow timing and magnitude in five small coastal watersheds in the western US. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrologic model was used with General Circulation Model (GCM) projected temperature and precipitation data from 20 CMs using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Changes in climate, streamflow quantity, and timing were assessed at each watershed for mid-21st century and late-21st century periods as compared to a historical period. Projected temperature increases range from 1 to 6 °C across watersheds and GCMs, and while precipitation varies widely, mean and median percent changes fall just above zero (2.0% and 3.6%, respectively) for the late 21st century. Trends in the magnitude of streamflow diverge across watersheds, with peak winter/spring streamflow in the late-21st century projected to increase in the three northern watersheds and decrease at the southern two watersheds. Streamflow timing (using the Center of Timing metric) displays a similar split, with later timing (13 days later) projected for the southernmost watershed, and smaller shifts earlier (0-7 days) at all other watersheds for the end of the 21st century, all highly correlated to shifts in precipitation timing. Decreases in peak winter streamflow and large shifts in timing have critical implications for water supply, which is already strained from drought and high demand.

  13. Phytoplankton Biomass Dynamics in the Strait of Malacca within the Period of the SeaWiFS Full Mission: Seasonal Cycles, Interannual Variations and Decadal-Scale Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Siswanto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal cycles, interannual variations and decadal trends of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS-retrieved chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a in the Strait of Malacca (SM were investigated with reconstructed, cloud-free SeaWiFS Chl-a during the period of the SeaWiFS full mission (September 1997 to December 2010. Pixel-based non-parametric correlations of SeaWiFS Chl-a on environmental variables were used to identify the probable causes of the observed spatio-temporal variations of SeaWiFS Chl-a in northern, middle and southern regions of the SM. Chl-a was high (low during the northeast (southwest monsoon. The principal causes of the seasonality were wind-driven vertical mixing in the northern region and wind-driven coastal upwelling and possibly river discharges in the middle region. Among the three regions, the southern region showed the largest interannual variations of Chl-a. These variations were associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and river runoff. Interannual variations of Chl-a in the middle and northern regions were more responsive to the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO, respectively, with atmospheric deposition being the most important driver. The most significant decadal-scale trend of increasing Chl-a was in the southern region; the trend was moderate in the middle region. This increasing trend was probably caused by environmental changes unrelated to the variables investigated in this study.

  14. Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Störmer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

  15. Reducing lumber thickness variation using real-time statistical process control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas M. Young; Brian H. Bond; Jan Wiedenbeck

    2002-01-01

    A technology feasibility study for reducing lumber thickness variation was conducted from April 2001 until March 2002 at two sawmills located in the southern U.S. A real-time statistical process control (SPC) system was developed that featured Wonderware human machine interface technology (HMI) with distributed real-time control charts for all sawing centers and...

  16. Biological variation in tPA-induced plasma clot lysis time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Talens (Simone); J.J.M.C. Malfliet (Joyce); G. Rudež (Goran); H.M.H. Spronk (Henri); N.A.H. Janssen (Nicole); P. Meijer (Piet); C. Kluft (Cornelius); M.P.M. de Maat (Moniek); D.C. Rijken (Dingeman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractHypofibrinolysis is a risk factor for venous and arterial thrombosis, and can be assessed by using a turbidimetric tPA-induced clot lysis time (CLT) assay. Biological variation in clot lysis time may affect the interpretation and usefulness of CLT as a risk factor for thrombosis.

  17. Are outcomes after total knee arthroplasty worsening over time? A time-trends study of activity limitation and pain outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A; Lewallen, David G

    2014-12-17

    To examine whether function and pain outcomes of patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are changing over time. The Mayo Clinic Total Joint Registry provided data for time-trends in preoperative and 2-year post-operative activity limitation and pain in primary TKA patients from 1993-2005. We used chi-square test and analysis for variance, as appropriate. Multivariable-adjusted analyses were done using logistic regression. In a cohort of 7,229 patients who underwent primary TKA during 1993-2005, mean age was 68.4 years (standard deviation (SD), 9.8), mean BMI was 31.1 (SD, 6.0) and 55% were women. Crude estimates showed that preoperative moderate-severe overall limitation were seen in 7.3% fewer patients and preoperative moderate-severe pain in 2.7% more patients in 2002-05, compared to 1992-95 (p limitation was seen in 4.7% more patients and moderate-severe post-TKA pain in 3.6% more patients in 2002-05, both statistically significant (p ≤ 0.018) and clinically meaningful. In multivariable-adjusted analyses that adjusted for age, sex, anxiety, depression, Deyo-Charlson index, body mass index and preoperative pain/limitation, patients had worse outcomes 2-year post-TKA in 2002-2005 compared to 1993-95 with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval (CI); p-value) of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.76, p = 0.037) for moderate-severe activity limitation and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.17, 2.75, p = 0.007) for moderate-severe pain. Patient-reported function and pain outcomes after primary TKA have worsened over the study period 1993-95 to 2002-05. This time-trend is independent of changes in preoperative pain/limitation and certain patient characteristics.

  18. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997-2012): Correlates, time trends and health consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Thiago Hérick; Duran, Ana Clara; Tainio, Marko; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Woodcock, James

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS). At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people). Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥ 9 h of cycling per day). Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  19. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  20. SYSTEMATIC CENTER-TO-LIMB VARIATION IN MEASURED HELIOSEISMIC TRAVEL TIMES AND ITS EFFECT ON INFERENCES OF SOLAR INTERIOR MERIDIONAL FLOWS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao Junwei; Nagashima, Kaori; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, A. G. [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4085 (United States); Duvall, T. L. Jr. [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2012-04-10

    We report on a systematic center-to-limb variation in measured helioseismic travel times, which must be taken into account for an accurate determination of solar interior meridional flows. The systematic variation, found in time-distance helioseismology analysis using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA observations, is different in both travel-time magnitude and variation trend for different observables. It is not clear what causes this systematic effect. Subtracting the longitude-dependent east-west travel times, obtained along the equatorial area, from the latitude-dependent north-south travel times, obtained along the central meridian area, gives remarkably similar results for different observables. We suggest this as an effective procedure for removing the systematic center-to-limb variation. The subsurface meridional flows obtained from inversion of the corrected travel times are approximately 10 m s{sup -1} slower than those obtained without removing the systematic effect. The detected center-to-limb variation may have important implications in the derivation of meridional flows in the deep interior and needs to be better understood.

  1. Systematic Center-To-Limb Variation in Measured Helioseismic Travel Times and Its Effect on Inferences of Solar Interior Meridional Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junwei; Nagashima, Kaori; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, Alexander; Duvall, T. L., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    We report on a systematic center-to-limb variation in measured helioseismic travel times, which must be taken into account for an accurate determination of solar interior meridional flows. The systematic variation, found in time-distance helioseismology analysis using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA observations, is different in both travel-time magnitude and variation trend for different observables. It is not clear what causes this systematic effect. Subtracting the longitude-dependent east-west travel times, obtained along the equatorial area, from the latitude-dependent north-south travel times, obtained along the central meridian area, gives remarkably similar results for different observables. We suggest this as an effective procedure for removing the systematic center-to-limb variation. The subsurface meridional flows obtained from inversion of the corrected travel times are approximately 10 m s-1 slower than those obtained without removing the systematic effect. The detected center-to-limb variation may have important implications in the derivation of meridional flows in the deep interior and needs to be better understood.

  2. Trends and Variation in Use of Breast Reconstruction in Patients With Breast Cancer Undergoing Mastectomy in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagsi, Reshma; Jiang, Jing; Momoh, Adeyiza O.; Alderman, Amy; Giordano, Sharon H.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Kronowitz, Steven J.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Concerns exist regarding breast cancer patients' access to breast reconstruction, which provides important psychosocial benefits. Patients and Methods Using the MarketScan database, a claims-based data set of US patients with employment-based insurance, we identified 20,560 women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer from 1998 to 2007. We evaluated time trends using the Cochran-Armitage test and correlated reconstruction use with plastic-surgery workforce density and other treatments using multivariable regression. Results Median age of our sample was 51 years. Reconstruction use increased from 46% in 1998 to 63% in 2007 (P mastectomy also increased: from 3% in 1998 to 18% in 2007 (P mastectomy were more likely to receive reconstruction (odds ratio [OR], 2.3; P mastectomy (OR, 0.5; P < .001), or patients in the highest income quartile (OR, 0.7; P = .006). Delayed reconstruction was performed in 21% of patients who underwent reconstruction. Conclusion Breast reconstruction has increased over time, but it has wide geographic variability. Receipt of other treatments correlates with the use of and approaches toward reconstruction. Further research and interventions are needed to ensure equitable access to this important component of multidisciplinary treatment of breast cancer. PMID:24550418

  3. Standardised Resting Time Prior to Blood Sampling and Diurnal Variation Associated with Risk of Patient Misclassification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgh Andersen, Ida; Brasen, Claus L.; Christensen, Henry

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: According to current recommendations, blood samples should be taken in the morning after 15 minutes' resting time. Some components exhibit diurnal variation and in response to pressures to expand opening hours and reduce waiting time, the aims of this study were to investigate...... the impact of resting time prior to blood sampling and diurnal variation on biochemical components, including albumin, thyrotropin (TSH), total calcium and sodium in plasma. METHODS: All patients referred to an outpatient clinic for blood sampling were included in the period Nov 2011 until June 2014 (opening...... hours: 7am-3pm). Each patient's arrival time and time of blood sampling were registered. The impact of resting time and the time of day for all components was analysed using simple linear regression. The "maximum allowable bias" was used as quality indicator for the change in reference interval. RESULTS...

  4. Variations in automatically recorded rumination time as explained by variations in intake of dietary fractions and milk production, and between-cow variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byskov, M V; Nadeau, E; Johansson, B E O; Nørgaard, P

    2015-06-01

    Individual recording of rumination time (RT) is now possible in commercial dairy herds, through development of a microphone-based sensor, which is able to record RT by the sound of rumination activity. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship between daily RT and intakes of different dietary fractions, the relationship between RT in minutes per kilogram of dry matter intake (DMI) and milk production, and to examine the variation in RT within and between mid-lactating dairy cows. Data from 3 production trials were used in which a total of 27 different diets were fed. The data contained 761, 290, and 203 daily recordings of RT, milk yield, milk components, DMI, and intake of dietary fractions recorded on 29, 26, and 24 Holstein and Swedish Red cows from trials 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The dietary fractions included forage neutral detergent fiber (NDF), concentrate NDF, crude protein, sugar, starch, and the remaining fraction represented by organic matter--(forage NDF+concentrate NDF+crude protein+sugar+starch). The relationship between the dietary fractions and RT was analyzed in 2 steps. In step 1, the dietary fractions, which were significantly related to RT, were selected and simultaneously checked for multicollinearity between the dietary components; in step 2, a multivariate model, including the effect of repeated measurements, the main effect of the selected dietary fractions from step 1, random effects of cow(trial) and trial, and information on breed, days in milk, and parity was used to analyze the relationship between RT and the selected dietary fractions. Relationships between RT in minutes per kilogram of DMI and milk yield and milk components were analyzed, using the same multivariate model as in step 2. Approximately 32% of the variation in daily RT could be explained by variations in intakes of the dietary fractions, whereas 48% of the total variation in RT was accounted for by individual variations between cows. Intakes of

  5. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  6. Time trends and determinants of pharmaceutical expenditure in China (1990-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lizheng; Yang, Heidi Y; Cheng, Gang; Meng, Qingyue

    2014-03-01

    Pharmaceutical policy reform is currently one of the primary areas of health reform in China. The national pharmaceutical policy of China has multiple objectives: to develop the domestic pharmaceutical industry and encourage innovation, to control escalation of total pharmaceutical expenditures (TPE) which constitute a substantial component of total health expenditures (THE), and to ensure access to essential medicines for poor and uninsured patients. The current pharmaceutical system has been criticized for its high costs, questionable prescribing practices, and poor regulation of drug quality. This study aims to examine the time trends and influential factors of TPE in China. Data from the 2010 China National Health Accounts Report and the 2010 China Health Statistics Year Book were used in the analysis. Time trends of TPE as a share of THE (TPE/THE), of gross domestic product [GDP] (TPE/GDP), and the relationship between TPE/THE and GDP were examined. The growth of TPE was examined after adjusting for health care utilization and GDP. The determinants of the TPE/THE and the TPE/GDP between 1990 and 2009 were investigated by two time-series regression models including the amount of prescriptions dispensed (using proxy variables of health utilization), the price indices of medical services, and the price indices of pharmaceuticals during that time period. Descriptive analyses showed that TPE and THE grew consistently during the years 1990-2009. The ratio of the THE/GDP increased more rapidly in recent years than the TPE/GDP. Furthermore, outpatient pharmaceutical expenditures (PEs) per visit and hospital PEs per admission grew throughout the study period. The amount of outpatient visits did not show a significant growth pattern during the 1990s, despite rapid GDP growth during that period. The time-series models showed that the TPE/THE was negatively associated with GDP during the same year (p = 0.039), as well as the medical consumer price index [CPI] (p = 0

  7. Seasonal variations in hospital admissions for mania: Examining for associations with weather variables over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medici, Clara Reece; Vestergaard, Claus Høstrup; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Parker, Gordon

    2016-11-15

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by a seasonal pattern with emerging evidence that weather conditions may trigger symptoms. Thus, our aims were to investigate if year-to-year variations in admissions with mania correlated with year-to-year variations in key meteorological variables, if there was a secular trend in light of climate change and if gender or admission status influenced the seasonal pattern. We undertook a Danish register-based nationwide historical cohort study. We included all adults hospitalized to psychiatric care from 1995 to 2012 with mania using the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register. The Danish Meteorological Institute provided the meteorological variables. The association between weather and admissions was tested using linear regression. Our database comprised 24,313 admissions with mania. There was a seasonal pattern with admission rates peaking in summer. Higher admission rates were associated with more sunshine, more ultraviolet radiation, higher temperature and less snow but were unassociated with rainfall. We did not find a secular trend in the seasonal pattern. Finally, neither gender nor admission status impacted on the overall seasonal pattern of admissions with mania. Only patients in psychiatric care were included. We could not subdivide by type of bipolar disorder. This cohort study based on more than 24,000 admissions identified a distinct seasonal pattern in hospital admissions for those with mania. We found no secular trend. This could indicate that the climate change is not impacting on seasonal patterns, that there is no link between the proposed variables or that change is currently not sufficiently distinctive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Annual timing of river floods in the Northeast United States: seasonal characterization and temporal trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Increases in flood magnitude and frequency have been documented in climate-sensitive watersheds in the Northeast United States. Associated changes in inundation frequency and/or magnitude, or changes in stream channel form and function, can affect human uses of floodplain environments (e.g., dwellings or transportation infrastructure) as well as aquatic and riparian habitats. Historical changes in flood magnitude and frequency also have important implications for designing floodplain infrastructure and channel modifications because well-accepted statistical methods for design-flood prediction require flood records with stationary means and variances. Changes in flood timing during the year may also be impactful, but have not been studied in detail for the Northeast United States. For example, relatively modest shifts in the timing of winter/spring floods can affect the incidence of ice jam complications. Or, changes in spring or fall flood timing may positively or negatively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. With this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasonality in climate-sensitive watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Temporal trends in the timing of floods within significant flood seasons at a site are then analyzed using a method that employs directional statistics. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. Documented changes in flood timing during the year are considered in the context of both potential historical impacts and expectations for future flood timing given regional climate change projections.

  9. Running vacuum in the Universe and the time variation of the fundamental constants of Nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritzsch, Harald [Nanyang Technological University, Institute for Advanced Study, Singapore (Singapore); Universitaet Muenchen, Physik-Department, Munich (Germany); Sola, Joan [Nanyang Technological University, Institute for Advanced Study, Singapore (Singapore); Universitat de Barcelona, Departament de Fisica Quantica i Astrofisica, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Universitat de Barcelona (ICCUB), Institute of Cosmos Sciences, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Nunes, Rafael C. [Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Dept. de Fisica, Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil)

    2017-03-15

    We compute the time variation of the fundamental constants (such as the ratio of the proton mass to the electron mass, the strong coupling constant, the fine-structure constant and Newton's constant) within the context of the so-called running vacuum models (RVMs) of the cosmic evolution. Recently, compelling evidence has been provided that these models are able to fit the main cosmological data (SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB) significantly better than the concordance ΛCDM model. Specifically, the vacuum parameters of the RVM (i.e. those responsible for the dynamics of the vacuum energy) prove to be nonzero at a confidence level >or similar 3σ. Here we use such remarkable status of the RVMs to make definite predictions on the cosmic time variation of the fundamental constants. It turns out that the predicted variations are close to the present observational limits. Furthermore, we find that the time evolution of the dark matter particle masses should be crucially involved in the total mass variation of our Universe. A positive measurement of this kind of effects could be interpreted as strong support to the ''micro-macro connection'' (viz. the dynamical feedback between the evolution of the cosmological parameters and the time variation of the fundamental constants of the microscopic world), previously proposed by two of us (HF and JS). (orig.)

  10. Running vacuum in the Universe and the time variation of the fundamental constants of Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritzsch, Harald; Solà, Joan; Nunes, Rafael C.

    2017-03-01

    We compute the time variation of the fundamental constants (such as the ratio of the proton mass to the electron mass, the strong coupling constant, the fine-structure constant and Newton's constant) within the context of the so-called running vacuum models (RVMs) of the cosmic evolution. Recently, compelling evidence has been provided that these models are able to fit the main cosmological data (SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB) significantly better than the concordance Λ CDM model. Specifically, the vacuum parameters of the RVM (i.e. those responsible for the dynamics of the vacuum energy) prove to be nonzero at a confidence level ≳ 3σ . Here we use such remarkable status of the RVMs to make definite predictions on the cosmic time variation of the fundamental constants. It turns out that the predicted variations are close to the present observational limits. Furthermore, we find that the time evolution of the dark matter particle masses should be crucially involved in the total mass variation of our Universe. A positive measurement of this kind of effects could be interpreted as strong support to the "micro-macro connection" (viz. the dynamical feedback between the evolution of the cosmological parameters and the time variation of the fundamental constants of the microscopic world), previously proposed by two of us (HF and JS).

  11. Time-Series Trends of Trace Elements in AN Ice Core from Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskin, Siddik Sinan

    Trace element measurements were made by instrumental neutron activation analysis on stratigraphically dated ice core samples from Byrd Station, Antarctica, to determine the concentration levels of natural and anthropogenic substances. Sampling was continuous between 1926 A.D. and 1989 A.D. and selective between 1711 A.D. and 1926 A.D. Twenty-one elements with concentrations above the detection limits were determined. The time period between 1969 A.D. and 1989 A.D. showed an enhanced impact on the Antarctic ice sheets from natural sources in the form of marine and crustal aerosols. A disturbed ocean-atmosphere interface due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events seems to be a candidate especially for the enhanced marine aerosol deposition in Antarctica. Time-series trend of the concentration of deposited aluminum, which is mainly a crustal aerosol related element, shows a strong negative correlation with the time-series trend of annual average total column ozone concentrations homogenized between the 60^circS and 90^circS latitudes from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone data set. Although the time period is not long enough to draw a strong conclusion (1979-1989), tbe special role of crustal origin clay minerals on cloud nucleation dynamics might be a factor in the heterogeneous stratospheric ozone depletion chemistry through polar stratospheric cloud dynamics, assuming some troposphere-stratosphere mixing of these aerosols. The correlation of antimony and arsenic enrichments with known or suspected volcanic events was established. These marker elements was shown to be useful especially for the identification of specific historical volcanic events with low sulfur emissions. Although a cleat anthropogenic impact was not observed, concentrations of arsenic, chromium. and zinc, which might come from both natural and anthropogenic sources, indicated an increase after 1960's. Principal component factor analysis indicated a possible transition

  12. Temporal variation of tidal parameters in superconducting gravimeter time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meurers, Bruno; Van Camp, Michel; Francis, Olivier; Pálinkáš, Vojtech

    2016-04-01

    Analysing independent 1-yr data sets of 10 European superconducting gravimeters (SG) reveals statistically significant temporal variations of M2 tidal parameters. Both common short-term (2 yr) features are identified in all SG time-series but one. The averaged variations of the amplitude factor are about 0.2‰. The path of load vector variations equivalent to the temporal changes of tidal parameters suggests the presence of an 8.85 yr modulation (lunar perigee). The tidal waves having the potential to modulate M2 with this period belong to the 3rd degree constituents. Their amplitude factors turn out to be much closer to body tide model predictions than that of the main 2nd degree M2, which indicates ocean loading for 3rd degree waves to be less prominent than for 2nd degree waves within the M2 group. These two different responses to the loading suggest that the observed modulation is more due to insufficient frequency resolution of limited time-series rather than to time variable loading. Presently, SG gravity time-series are still too short to prove if time variable loading processes are involved too as in case of the annual M2 modulation known to appear for analysis intervals of less than 1 yr. Whatever the variations are caused by, they provide the upper accuracy limit for earth model validation and permit estimating the temporal stability of SG scale factors and assessing the quality of gravity time-series.

  13. Trends in Timing of Dialysis Initiation within Versus Outside the Department of Veterans Affairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Hare, Ann M.; Batten, Adam; Sulc, Christine A.; Neely, Emily L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Hebert, Paul L.

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives The secular trend toward dialysis initiation at progressively higher levels of eGFR is not well understood. This study compared temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation within versus outside the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)—the largest non–fee-for-service health system in the United States. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The study used linked data from the US Renal Data System, VA, and Medicare to compare temporal trends in eGFR at dialysis initiation between 2000 and 2009 (n=971,543). Veterans who initiated dialysis within the VA were compared with three groups who initiated dialysis outside the VA: (1) veterans whose dialysis was paid for by the VA, (2) veterans whose dialysis was not paid for by the VA, and (3) nonveterans. Logistic regression was used to estimate average predicted probabilities of dialysis initiation at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Results The adjusted probability of starting dialysis at an eGFR≥10 ml/min per 1.73 m2 increased over time for all groups but was lower for veterans who started dialysis within the VA (0.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.30 to 0.32) than for those starting outside the VA, including veterans whose dialysis was (0.36; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) and was not (0.40; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.40) paid for by the VA and nonveterans (0.39; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.39). Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were most pronounced among older patients (P for interaction dialysis initiation within the VA mirrored those in the wider United States dialysis population, but eGFR at initiation was consistently lowest among those who initiated within the VA. Differences in eGFR at initiation within versus outside the VA were especially pronounced in older patients and those with higher 1-year mortality risk. PMID:26206891

  14. Bioethanol From Pineapple Peel with Saccharomyces Cereviceae Mass and Fermentation TIME Variation

    OpenAIRE

    Nanik Astuti Rahman, Harimbi Setyawati

    2011-01-01

    As a waste from pineapple, pineapple peel still contains high carbohydrate and glucose.The aim of this study was to made bioethanol from pineapple peel with variation fromSaccharomyces cereviceae mass addition and fermentation time variation. The variablesused are Saccaromyces cereviceae mass 20, 30, 40 grams, fermentation pH 4 and 5,andthe length of fermentation time 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 days. The analysis of the obtained resultsshowed: the initial glucose level of pineapple peel extract 8.532...

  15. Time-Variation of Imbalance of Order Book in Foreign Exchange Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueshige, Takumi; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    The time-variation of the limit order book is studied in terms of the imbalance of the bid and ask sides for foreign exchange markets. We first introduce a set of variables quantifying the imbalance between the bid and ask orders, and study the probability distribution of the imbalance to show its time-variation. We also suggest an approximate Gaussian fit for the imbalance distributions for cross-sectional views. This result implies the localization tendency of the order book imbalance around the Gaussian peak.

  16. Quaternary disappearance of tree taxa from Southern Europe: Timing and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magri, Donatella; Di Rita, Federico; Aranbarri, Josu; Fletcher, William; González-Sampériz, Penélope

    2017-05-01

    A hundred pollen and plant macrofossil records from the Iberian Peninsula, Southern France, the Italian Peninsula, Greece and the Aegean, and the southwestern Black Sea area formed the basis for a review of the Quaternary distribution and extirpation of tree populations from Southern Europe. Following a discussion of the caveats/challenges about using pollen data, the Quaternary history of tree taxa has been reconstructed with attention to Taxodium/Glyptostrobus, Sciadopitys, Cathaya, Cedrus, Tsuga, Eucommia, Engelhardia, Carya, Pterocarya, Parrotia, Liquidambar, and Zelkova. The timing of extinction, distributed over the whole Quaternary, appears very diverse from one region to the other, in agreement with current biodiversity in Southern Europe. The geographical patterns of persistence/disappearance of taxa show unexpected trends and rule out a simple North to South and/or West to East trend in extirpations. In particular, it is possible to detect disjunct populations (Engelhardia), long-term persistence of taxa in restricted regions (Sciadopitys), distinct populations/species/genera in different geographical areas (Taxodium type). Some taxa that are still widespread in Europe have undergone extirpation in Mediterranean areas in the lateglacial period and Holocene (Buxus, Carpinus betulus, Picea); they provide an indication of the modes of disappearance of tree populations that may be useful to evaluate correctly the vulnerability of modern fragmented plant populations. The demographic histories of tree taxa obtained by combined palaeobotanical and genetic studies is a most challenging field of research needed not only to assess species/population differentiation, but also to reach a better understanding of extinction processes, an essential task in the current global change scenario.

  17. Time trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia, 1998-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Esther; Arroyave, Ivan; Pardo, Constanza

    2016-04-05

    To evaluate trends in premature cancer mortality in Colombia by educational level in three periods: 1998-2002 with low healthcare insurance coverage, 2003-2007 with rapidly increasing coverage and finally 2008-2012 with almost universal coverage (2008-2012). Colombian population-based, national secondary mortality data. We included all (n=188,091) cancer deaths occurring in the age group 20-64 years between 1998 and 2012, excluding only cases with low levels of quality of registration (n=2902, 1.5%). In this descriptive study, we linked mortality data of ages 20-64 years to census data to obtain age-standardised cancer mortality rates by educational level. Using Poisson regression, we modelled premature mortality by educational level estimating rate ratios (RR), relative index of inequality (RII) and the Slope Index of Inequality (SII). Relative measures showed increased risks of dying among the lower educated compared to the highest educated; this tendency was stronger in women (RRprimary 1.49; RRsecondary 1.22, both peducated of 20.5 in males and 28.5 in females. RII was significantly higher among women and the younger age categories. RII decreased between the first and second periods; afterwards (2008-2012), it increased significantly back to their previous levels. Among women, no significant increases or declines in cancer mortality over time were observed in recent periods in the lowest educated group, whereas strong recent declines were observed in those with secondary education or higher. Educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia are increasing in absolute and relative terms, and are concentrated in young age categories. This trend was not curbed by increases in healthcare insurance coverage. Policymakers should focus on improving equal access to prevention, early detection, diagnostic and treatment facilities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  18. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Huffman

    Full Text Available Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008 downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication.Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008.Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve

  19. Global Cardiovascular Research Output, Citations, and Collaborations: A Time-Trend, Bibliometric Analysis (1999–2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D.; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S.; Colantonio, Lisandro D.; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S.; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Materials and Methods We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999–2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Results and Discussion Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999–2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999–2008. Conclusions Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus

  20. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  1. Stability Analysis and Variational Integrator for Real-Time Formation Based on Potential Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengqing Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a framework of real-time formation of autonomous vehicles by using potential field and variational integrator. Real-time formation requires vehicles to have coordinated motion and efficient computation. Interactions described by potential field can meet the former requirement which results in a nonlinear system. Stability analysis of such nonlinear system is difficult. Our methodology of stability analysis is discussed in error dynamic system. Transformation of coordinates from inertial frame to body frame can help the stability analysis focus on the structure instead of particular coordinates. Then, the Jacobian of reduced system can be calculated. It can be proved that the formation is stable at the equilibrium point of error dynamic system with the effect of damping force. For consideration of calculation, variational integrator is introduced. It is equivalent to solving algebraic equations. Forced Euler-Lagrange equation in discrete expression is used to construct a forced variational integrator for vehicles in potential field and obstacle environment. By applying forced variational integrator on computation of vehicles' motion, real-time formation of vehicles in obstacle environment can be implemented. Algorithm based on forced variational integrator is designed for a leader-follower formation.

  2. The variation of corrosion potential with time for coated metal surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danford, M. D.; Knockemus, W. W.

    1986-01-01

    The variation of corrosion potential (EsubCORR) with time has been measured for 4130 steel coated with a preservative compound and for primer coated 2219-T87 aluminum. The data for coated steel samples show a great deal of scatter, and a smoothing procedure has been developed to enable proper interpretation of the data. The EsubCORR-time curves for coated steel exhibit a maximum, in agreement with the results of previous studies, where the data were the average of those for a large number of samples, while the present data were obtained from a single sample. In contrast, the EsubCORR-time curves for primer coated 2219-T87 aluminum samples show no significant variations, although considerable activity is indicated by the resistance-time and corrosion rate-time curves.

  3. Time utilisation trends of supported employment services by persons with mental disability in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Niekerk, Lana; Coetzee, Zelda; Engelbrecht, Madri; Hajwani, Zerina; Terreblanche, Santie

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on the second phase of a two-phased study that was undertaken to determine the feasibility of supported employment (SE) as a strategy with which to facilitate the employment of persons with disability in competitive work contexts. The study population comprised people with mental disabilities receiving SE in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. To describe the components of SE utilised by persons with mental disability (i.e. psychiatric or intellectual disability) in terms of type and time utilisation patterns over 12 months. Criterion sampling, a form of purposive sampling, was used to identify 29 study participants - 19 with intellectual disability and 10 with psychiatric disability. Data collection commenced for each participant when a work placement had been identified and preparation for such ensued. Data was collected prospectively for a period of 12 months. SE service components utilised by participants were captured using a data capture sheet that was developed for this purpose. Time utilisation indicated a steep downwards trend for both cohorts. The decrease in utilisation of SE service components over a period of one year was more pronounced in the psychiatric disability (PD) cohort, who utilized almost half the total SE services in the first month. SE services can be considered as a viable option for return to work in resource-constrained environments. Providers of SE services will need to modify approaches in order to meet contextual realities.

  4. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  5. Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Salvador-Piedrafita

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted.

  6. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  7. Variation in saltgrass growth and time of fall dormancy related to geographical and climatic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrvoje Rukavina; Harrison Hughes; Randy Johnson

    2008-01-01

    Development of a new turfgrass cultivar requires an evaluation of numerous traits as well as an understanding of environmental factors influencing those traits. Growth or ability to fill in gaps and time of fall dormancy (fall color retention) that indicates cold hardiness are important traits for turfgrasses. This study was initiated to characterize variation in...

  8. The time variation in infrared water-vapour bands in Mira variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsuura, M; Yamamura, [No Value; Cami, J; Onaka, T; Murakami, H; Yamamura, I.

    The time variation in the water-vapour bands in oxygen-rich Mira variables has been investigated using multi-epoch ISO/SWS spectra of four Mira variables in the 2.5-4.0 mum region. All four stars show H2O bands in absorption around minimum in the visual light curve. At maximum, H2O emission features

  9. Space-time variational saddle point formulations of Stokes and Navier-Stokes equations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guberovic, R.; Schwab, C.; Stevenson, R.

    2014-01-01

    The instationary Stokes and Navier-Stokes equations are considered in a simultaneously space-time variational saddle point formulation, so involving both velocities u and pressure p. For the instationary Stokes problem, it is shown that the corresponding operator is a boundedly invertible linear

  10. An Exploration of the Effects of Cycle Time and Force Variations on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the effects of two intermittent task parameters on muscle fatigue, namely cycle time and force level variation. Of particular interest was whether a constant low-level underlying force would contribute to fatigue. Twelve students participated in four experimental conditions, each lasting 8 minutes.

  11. Variation in the timing of reproduction of the four-striped field mouse ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We used the four-striped field mouse, Rhabdomys pumilio (Sparrmann, 1784), to test the hypothesis that reproduction in a small, short-lived mammal will be opportunistic, characterized by temporal and spatial variation in the timing of events, and only be inhibited under harsh and predictable winter conditions. Field mice ...

  12. Co-gradient variation in growth rate and development time of a broadly distributed butterfly.

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    Madeleine Barton

    Full Text Available Widespread species often show geographic variation in thermally-sensitive traits, providing insight into how species respond to shifts in temperature through time. Such patterns may arise from phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, or their interaction. In some cases, the effects of genotype and temperature may act together to reduce, or to exacerbate, phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits across varying thermal environments. We find evidence for such interactions in life-history traits of Heteronympha merope, a butterfly distributed across a broad latitudinal gradient in south-eastern Australia. We show that body size in this butterfly is negatively related to developmental temperature in the laboratory, in accordance with the temperature-size rule, but not in the field, despite very strong temperature gradients. A common garden experiment on larval thermal responses, spanning the environmental extremes of H. merope's distribution, revealed that butterflies from low latitude (warmer climate populations have relatively fast intrinsic growth and development rates compared to those from cooler climates. These synergistic effects of genotype and temperature across the landscape (co-gradient variation are likely to accentuate phenotypic variation in these traits, and this interaction must be accounted for when predicting how H. merope will respond to temperature change through time. These results highlight the importance of understanding how variation in life-history traits may arise in response to environmental change. Without this knowledge, we may fail to detect whether organisms are tracking environmental change, and if they are, whether it is by plasticity, adaptation or both.

  13. Rate variation and estimation of divergence times using strict and relaxed clocks

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    Yang Ziheng

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding causes of biological diversity may be greatly enhanced by knowledge of divergence times. Strict and relaxed clock models are used in Bayesian estimation of divergence times. We examined whether: i strict clock models are generally more appropriate in shallow phylogenies where rate variation is expected to be low, ii the likelihood ratio test of the clock (LRT reliably informs which model is appropriate for dating divergence times. Strict and relaxed models were used to analyse sequences simulated under different levels of rate variation. Published shallow phylogenies (Black bass, Primate-sucking lice, Podarcis lizards, Gallotiinae lizards, and Caprinae mammals were also analysed to determine natural levels of rate variation relative to the performance of the different models. Results Strict clock analyses performed well on data simulated under the independent rates model when the standard deviation of log rate on branches, σ, was low (≤0.1, but were inappropriate when σ>0.1 (95% of rates fall within 0.0082-0.0121 subs/site/Ma when σ = 0.1, for a mean rate of 0.01. The independent rates relaxed clock model performed well at all levels of rate variation, although posterior intervals on times were significantly wider than for the strict clock. The strict clock is therefore superior when rate variation is low. The performance of a correlated rates relaxed clock model was similar to the strict clock. Increased numbers of independent loci led to slightly narrower posteriors under the relaxed clock while older root ages provided proportionately narrower posteriors. The LRT had low power for σ = 0.01-0.1, but high power for σ = 0.5-2.0. Posterior means of σ2 were useful for assessing rate variation in published datasets. Estimates of natural levels of rate variation ranged from 0.05-3.38 for different partitions. Differences in divergence times between relaxed and strict clock analyses were greater in two

  14. Time trends in colorectal cancer early postoperative mortality. A French 25-year population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfredi, Sylvain; Jooste, Valérie; Gay, Caroline; Faivre, Jean; Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

    2017-10-19

    Postoperative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer is an important issue. The aim of this study was to assess early postoperative mortality in a well-defined French population. Data on 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality after resection for colorectal cancer were extracted from the digestive cancer registry of Burgundy. Time trends of postoperative mortality between 1989 and 2013 were described for the large population. Case-control studies (death within 30 or 90 days = cases, alive at 90 days = controls) focused on the association between postoperative mortality and surgical approach, obesity and other comorbidities over the last [2010-2013] period, using conditional logistic regressions. Among the 11,448 concerned patients, 30- and 90-day postoperative mortalities were 4.9 and 7.2%. Thirty-day operative mortality decreased from 7.2% (1989-1993) to 4.4% (2010-2013; p < 0.001) for colon cancer and from 4.2 to 3.3% for rectal cancer (NS). Diagnosis before 1997, male gender, advanced age, emergency surgery and palliative resection were associated with a significantly higher 30- and 90-day mortality rate. The univariate risk of mortality was two to three times higher for conventional open laparotomy and conversion than for laparoscopy-assisted surgery. The surgical approach was no longer significant in multivariate analysis. Emergency surgery and comorbidities were associated with higher 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality, whereas obesity was not specific. Postoperative mortality after colorectal resection decreased over time. Surgical approach had no influence on early mortality. Improvement in the management of the elderly and patients with comorbidities is a challenge to reduce postoperative mortality in the future.

  15. Time Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Ovarian Cancer in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Israel, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G; Walsh, Paul M; Gavin, Anna T; Hayes, Catherine

    2017-10-01

    The aims of this study were to compare time trends in ovarian cancer incidence and mortality in populations with (1) similar genetics but different health care systems (Ireland and Northern Ireland [NI]) and (2)different genetics but similar health care system (Israeli Jews and Arabs) and to interpret the results. Age-standardized rates of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality for 1994-2013 in the 3 countries were obtained from national cancer registries and national statistics. Time trends in incidence, mortality, and incidence-to-mortality ratio were assessed by linear regression models applied to each country and between populations (Ireland-NI, Ireland-Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews-Arabs). Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates in 1994 were similar in the countries studied. Thereafter a reduction in incidence and mortality was observed in Ireland (incidence APC1994-2013 = -0.75%, P Ireland and Israeli Jews (P = 0.009) and between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.004) were observed. The only significant trend difference for mortality was between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.038). Incidence-to-mortality ratios showed stable trends in all groups except for Israeli Jews (APC1994-2013 = -1.0%, P Ireland, NI, and Israeli Jews, following global trends, with a more prominent incidence decline in Israeli Jews. Decreasing mortality trends are driven by falling incidence in the countries studied rather than improved survival.

  16. Approximate solution of time-fractional advection-dispersion equation via fractional variational iteration method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibiş, Birol; Bayram, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to obtain the approximate solution of time-fractional advection-dispersion equation (FADE) involving Jumarie's modification of Riemann-Liouville derivative by the fractional variational iteration method (FVIM). FVIM provides an analytical approximate solution in the form of a convergent series. Some examples are given and the results indicate that the FVIM is of high accuracy, more efficient, and more convenient for solving time FADEs.

  17. Identifying significant temporal variation in time course microarray data without replicates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porter Weston

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of time course microarray studies is the identification of genes that demonstrate significant time-dependent variation in their expression levels. Until recently, available methods for performing such significance tests required replicates of individual time points. This paper describes a replicate-free method that was developed as part of a study of the estrous cycle in the rat mammary gland in which no replicate data was collected. Results A temporal test statistic is proposed that is based on the degree to which data are smoothed when fit by a spline function. An algorithm is presented that uses this test statistic together with a false discovery rate method to identify genes whose expression profiles exhibit significant temporal variation. The algorithm is tested on simulated data, and is compared with another recently published replicate-free method. The simulated data consists both of genes with known temporal dependencies, and genes from a null distribution. The proposed algorithm identifies a larger percentage of the time-dependent genes for a given false discovery rate. Use of the algorithm in a study of the estrous cycle in the rat mammary gland resulted in the identification of genes exhibiting distinct circadian variation. These results were confirmed in follow-up laboratory experiments. Conclusion The proposed algorithm provides a new approach for identifying expression profiles with significant temporal variation without relying on replicates. When compared with a recently published algorithm on simulated data, the proposed algorithm appears to identify a larger percentage of time-dependent genes for a given false discovery rate. The development of the algorithm was instrumental in revealing the presence of circadian variation in the virgin rat mammary gland during the estrous cycle.

  18. Dry-wet variations and cause analysis in Northeast China at multi-time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qi; Pan, Feifei; Pan, Xuebiao; Hu, Liting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Pengyu; Wei, Pei; Pan, Zhihua

    2017-07-01

    Global warming has caused unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has and will certainly impact on the wet-dry variations. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 91 weather stations in Northeast China (NEC), the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry and wet climatic variables (precipitation, crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and humid index (HI)) are analyzed, and the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed during the period of 1961-2014. Precipitation showed non-significant trend over the period of 1961-2014, while ET0 showed a significant decreasing trend, which led to climate wetting in NEC. The period of 2001-2012 exhibited smaller semiarid area and larger humid area compared to the period of 1961-1980, indicating NEC has experienced wetting process at decadal scale. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity, and wind speed was the second most sensitive variable. Sunshine hours and temperature were found to be less influential to ET0 in the study area. The changes in wind speed in the recent 54 years have caused the greatest influence on ET0, followed by temperature. For each month, wind speed was the most significant variable causing ET0 reduction in all months except July. Temperature, as a dominant factor, made a positive contribution to ET0 in February and March, as well as sunshine hours in June and July, and relative humidity in August and September. In summary, NEC has experienced noticeable climate wetting due to the significantly decreasing ET0, and the decrease in wind speed was the biggest contributor for the ET0 reduction. Although agricultural drought crisis is expected to be partly alleviated, regional water resources management and planning in Northeast China should consider the potential water shortage and water conflict in the future because of spatiotemporal dry-wet variations in NEC.

  19. Forecasting visitor accession trend of two prominent Indian Health Journal websites for the period 2015-2020 using time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nidhi Dwivedi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To determine the pattern and forecast visitor accession trend of two national academic journal website: Indian Journal of Community Medicine (IJCM and Indian Journal of Public Health (IJPH for the period 2015-2020. Materials and Methods: The visitor accession details (number of times journal issue accessed online for the period 2000-2014 (15 years were collected and recorded on Microsoft Excel sheet. Time series analysis was then applied on the dataset using different forecasting models to predict the future trend of accession and value of a real dataset using R software (version 3.1. Results: Both the Indian journals are managed by independent professional bodies, but IJCM journal website was made online in 2007, 3 years ahead of IJPH (2010, leading to a very high accession (a proxy indicator for volume of readership of IJCM during this period ranging between 100,000 and 120,000 counts, and thereafter accession was noticed to be slightly higher for IJPH than IJCM. The time series sequence showed that both had similar pattern, i.e., first stage: they have initial slow rise; second stage: sudden increasing trend from 2007 to 2010 (IJCM; and 2010 to 2012 (IJPH, respectively; and third stage: Both have then a decreasing trend with superimposed seasonal fluctuations. Future predicted accession details of IJCM and IJPH for 2015-2020 by Holt-Winter fitting model suggest stagnation with online accession of journal issue ranging from 30,360 to 31,860 counts for IJPH and 20,997 to 25,581 counts for IJCM though the range of accession for IJCM (4584 was higher than IJPH (1500, thereby reflecting that IJPH will attain stagnation earlier then IJCM. Autoregressive integrated moving average model also reflected similar results. Ljung-Box test indicated that the model was found statistically correct (P = 0.825 for IJCM and P = 0.50 (IJPH, and there was no statistically significant difference between actual values and predicted values by model. For

  20. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  1. Mapping mountain pine beetle mortality through growth trend analysis of time-series landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Lu; Chen, Yanlei; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  2. Time trend analysis of primary tumor resection for stage IV colorectal cancer: less surgery, improved survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chung-Yuan; Bailey, Christina E; You, Y Nancy; Skibber, John M; Rodriguez-Bigas, Miguel A; Feig, Barry W; Chang, George J

    2015-03-01

    With the advent of effective modern chemotherapeutic and biologic agents, primary tumor resection for patients with stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) may not be routinely necessary. To evaluate the secular patterns of primary tumor resection use in stage IV CRC in the United States. A retrospective cohort study using data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results CRC registry. Demographic and clinical factors were compared for 64,157 patients diagnosed with stage IV colon or rectal cancer from January 1, 1988, through December 31, 2010, who had undergone primary tumor resection and those who had not. Rates of primary tumor resection and median relative survival were calculated for each year. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine when a significant change in trend in the primary tumor resection rate had occurred. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with primary tumor resection. Difference in primary tumor resection rates over time. Of the 64,157 patients with stage IV CRC, 43,273 (67.4%) had undergone primary tumor resection. The annual rate of primary tumor resection decreased from 74.5% in 1988 to 57.4% in 2010 (Ptrend toward fewer primary tumor resections was seen. Despite the decreasing primary tumor resection rate, patient survival rates improved. However, primary tumor resection may still be overused, and current treatment practices lag behind evidence-based treatment guidelines.

  3. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  4. Time Trends in Pulmonary Embolism in the United States: Evidence of Overdiagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiener, Renda Soylemez; Schwartz, Lisa M.; Woloshin, Steven

    2011-01-01

    Background Computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) may improve detection of life-threatening pulmonary embolism. But this sensitive test may have a downside: overdiagnosis and overtreatment (finding clinically unimportant emboli and exposing patients to harms from unnecessary treatment). Methods To assess the impact of CTPA on national pulmonary embolism incidence, mortality, and treatment complications, we conducted a time trend analysis using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and Multiple Cause-of-Death databases. We compared age-adjusted incidence, mortality, and treatment complications (in-hospital gastrointestinal or intracranial hemorrhage or secondary thrombocytopenia) of pulmonary embolism among United States adults before (1993–1998) and after (1998–2006) CTPA was introduced. Results Pulmonary embolism incidence was unchanged before CTPA (p=0.63), but increased substantially after CTPA (81% increase: from 62.1 to 112.3 per 100,000, pPulmonary embolism mortality decreased during both periods: more so before CTPA (8% reduction: from 13.4 to 12.3 per 100,000, ppulmonary embolism: pre-CTPA, the complication rate was stable (p=0.24), but post-CTPA it increased by 71% (from 3.1 to 5.3 per 100,000, p<0.001). Conclusions The introduction of CTPA was associated with changes consistent with overdiagnosis: rising incidence, minimal change in mortality, and lower case-fatality. Better technology allows us to diagnose more emboli, but to minimize harms of overdiagnosis we must learn which ones matter. PMID:21555660

  5. Time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education in Brazil: 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Andrade, Flavia C D

    2016-11-17

    Socioeconomic differences in health in Brazil are largely driven by differences in educational attainment. In this paper, we assess whether educational gradients in chronic disease prevalence have narrowed in Brazil from 1998 to 2013, a period of a booming economy accompanied by major investments in public health in the country. Individual-level data came from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 Brazilian National Household Survey and the 2013 National Health Survey. We first evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates of chronic disease by education and second, we predict the estimated prevalence rate between those in low vs. high education to assess if relative changes in chronic disease have narrowed over time. Third, we estimate the slope index of inequality (SII) that evaluates the absolute change in the predicted prevalence of a disease between those in low vs. high education. Finally, we tested for statistically significant time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education. Prevalence of diabetes and hypertension have increased over the period, whereas the prevalence of heart disease decreased. Brazilian adults with no education had higher levels of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease than those with some college or more. Adjusted prevalence for hypertension and heart disease indicate some progress in reducing educational disparities over time. However, for diabetes, adjusted results show a continuously increasing educational disparity from 1998 to 2013. By 2013, individuals with no education had about two times higher diabetes prevalence than those with higher education with larger disparity among women. Results confirm findings from previous work that educational inequalities in health are large in Brazil but also provide evidence suggesting some improvement in narrowing these differentials in recent times. Recent policies aiming at reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption, and increasing physical activity and consumption of

  6. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  7. The variation of the onset of Betula pendula (Roth. flowering in Rzeszów, SE Poland: fluctuation or trend?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idalia Kasprzyk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The global rise in air temperature has major implications for ecosystems, populations, ecology of many living organisms, public health as well as economy. Plants, like silver birch (Betula pendula Roth., strongly respond to the climatic variation. Therefore, the species is a good indicator of the global climate change, especially warming. The phenological observation was undertaken to verify the hypothesis on an acceleration of the start of Betula pendula pollen release in the season. The investigations were carried out in 2000–2015 (16 years in the Rzeszów area, SE Poland. On average, Betula pendula started to pollinate in the middle of April; the difference between the earliest and latest dates was nearly 1 month. The full pollination started on 18 April, on average. The timing of pollination strongly depended on the course of weather in February and March. The most crucial was temperature in the first half of March. Considering the synergistic impact of meteorological parameters, the most important were temperature and rainfall in January and February, rainfall in March and temperature just before the pollination. It was found that North Atlantic Circulation influenced pollen release in Betula pendula. The positive North Atlantic Oscillation in March and in December–March periods resulted in pollination onset. Tendency towards warmer average annual temperature was recorded, however the timing of phenophases did not follow it. Despite the strong relationship with temperature there was no acceleration of Betula pendula pollination. Probably, the climate warming effect on the onset and duration in Betula pendula phenophases would be detectable in longer than a 16-year period.

  8. Trends and Regional Variation in Hospital Mortality, Length of Stay and Cost in Hospital of Ischemic Stroke Patients in Alberta Accompanying the Provincial Reorganization of Stroke Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohinmaa, Arto; Zheng, Yufei; Jeerakathil, Thomas; Klarenbach, Scott; Häkkinen, Unto; Nguyen, Thanh; Friesen, Dan; Ruseski, Jane; Kaul, Padma; Ariste, Ruolz; Jacobs, Philip

    2016-12-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the trends and regional variation of stroke hospital care in 30-day in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and 1-year total hospitalization cost after implementation of the Alberta Provincial Stroke Strategy. New ischemic stroke patients (N = 7632) admitted to Alberta acute care hospitals between 2006 and 2011 were followed for 1 year. We analyzed in-hospital mortality with logistic regression, LOS with negative binomial regression, and the hospital costs with generalized gamma model (log link). The risk-adjusted results were compared over years and between zones using observed/expected results. The risk-adjusted mortality rates decreased from 12.6% in 2006/2007 to 9.9% in 2010/2011. The regional variations in mortality decreased from 8.3% units in 2008/2009 to 5.6 in 2010/2011. The LOS of the first episode dropped significantly in 2010/2011 after a 4-year slight increase. The regional variation in LOS was 15.5 days in 2006/2007 and decreased to 10.9 days in 2010/2011. The 1-year hospitalization cost increased initially, and then kept on declining during the last 3 years. The South and Calgary zones had the lowest costs over the study period. However, this gap was diminishing. After implementation of the Alberta Provincial Stroke Strategy, both mortality and hospital costs demonstrated a decreasing trend during the later years of study. The LOS increased slightly during the first 4 years but had a significant drop at the last year. In general, the regional variations in all 3 indicators had a diminishing trend. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure. PMID:28401114

  10. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J

    2017-01-01

    The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) ( p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) ( p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke ( p = 0.002). Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure.

  11. Deep Zonal Flow and Time Variation of Jupiter’s Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hao; Stevenson, David J.

    2017-10-01

    All four giant planets in the Solar System feature zonal flows on the order of 100 m/s in the cloud deck, and large-scale intrinsic magnetic fields on the order of 1 Gauss near the surface. The vertical structure of the zonal flows remains obscure. The end-member scenarios are shallow flows confined in the radiative atmosphere and deep flows throughout the entire planet. The electrical conductivity increases rapidly yet smoothly as a function of depth inside Jupiter and Saturn. Deep zonal flows will advect the non-axisymmetric component of the magnetic field, at depth with even modest electrical conductivity, and create time variations in the magnetic field.The observed time variations of the geomagnetic field has been used to derive surface flows of the Earth’s outer core. The same principle applies to Jupiter, however, the connection between the time variation of the magnetic field (dB/dt) and deep zonal flow (Uphi) at Jupiter is not well understood due to strong radial variation of electrical conductivity. Here we perform a quantitative analysis of the connection between dB/dt and Uphi for Jupiter adopting realistic interior electrical conductivity profile, taking the likely presence of alkali metals into account. This provides a tool to translate expected measurement of the time variation of Jupiter’s magnetic field to deep zonal flows. We show that the current upper limit on the dipole drift rate of Jupiter (3 degrees per 20 years) is compatible with 10 m/s zonal flows with < 500 km vertical scale height below 0.972 Rj. We further demonstrate that fast drift of resolved magnetic features (e.g. magnetic spots) at Jupiter is a possibility.

  12. Variational superposed Gaussian approximation for time-dependent solutions of Langevin equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Yoshihiko

    2015-04-01

    We propose a variational superposed Gaussian approximation (VSGA) for dynamical solutions of Langevin equations subject to applied signals, determining time-dependent parameters of superposed Gaussian distributions by the variational principle. We apply the proposed VSGA to systems driven by a chaotic signal, where the conventional Fourier method cannot be adopted, and calculate the time evolution of probability density functions (PDFs) and moments. Both white and colored Gaussian noises terms are included to describe fluctuations. Our calculations show that time-dependent PDFs obtained by VSGA agree excellently with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. The correlation between the chaotic input signal and the mean response are also calculated as a function of the noise intensity, which confirms the occurrence of aperiodic stochastic resonance with both white and colored noises.

  13. Temporal variation in bat-fruit interactions: Foraging strategies influence network structure over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata-Mesa, Natalya; Montoya-Bustamante, Sebastián; Murillo-García, Oscar E.

    2017-11-01

    Mutualistic interactions, such as seed dispersal, are important for the maintenance of structure and stability of tropical communities. However, there is a lack of information about spatial and temporal variation in plant-animal interaction networks. Thus, our goal was to assess the effect of bat's foraging strategies on temporal variation in the structure and robustness of bat-fruit networks in both a dry and a rain tropical forest. We evaluated monthly variation in bat-fruit networks by using seven structure metrics: network size, average path length, nestedness, modularity, complementary specialization, normalized degree and betweenness centrality. Seed dispersal networks showed variations in size, species composition and modularity; did not present nested structures and their complementary specialization was high compared to other studies. Both networks presented short path lengths, and a constantly high robustness, despite their monthly variations. Sedentary bat species were recorded during all the study periods and occupied more central positions than nomadic species. We conclude that foraging strategies are important structuring factors that affect the dynamic of networks by determining the functional roles of frugivorous bats over time; thus sedentary bats are more important than nomadic species for the maintenance of the network structure, and their conservation is a must.

  14. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  15. Finite-temperature time-dependent variation with multiple Davydov states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Fujihashi, Yuta; Chen, Lipeng; Zhao, Yang

    2017-03-01

    The Dirac-Frenkel time-dependent variational approach with Davydov Ansätze is a sophisticated, yet efficient technique to obtain an accurate solution to many-body Schrödinger equations for energy and charge transfer dynamics in molecular aggregates and light-harvesting complexes. We extend this variational approach to finite temperature dynamics of the spin-boson model by adopting a Monte Carlo importance sampling method. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we compare calculated real-time quantum dynamics of the spin-boson model with that from numerically exact iterative quasiadiabatic propagator path integral (QUAPI) technique. The comparison shows that our variational approach with the single Davydov Ansätze is in excellent agreement with the QUAPI method at high temperatures, while the two differ at low temperatures. Accuracy in dynamics calculations employing a multitude of Davydov trial states is found to improve substantially over the single Davydov Ansatz, especially at low temperatures. At a moderate computational cost, our variational approach with the multiple Davydov Ansatz is shown to provide accurate spin-boson dynamics over a wide range of temperatures and bath spectral densities.

  16. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

  17. Time trends in radiocaesium in the Japanese diet following nuclear weapons testing and Chernobyl: Implications for long term contamination post-Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jim T; Tagami, Keiko; Uchida, Shigeo

    2017-12-01

    Estimation of time changes in radiocaesium in foodstuffs is key to predicting the long term impact of the Fukushima accident on the Japanese diet. We have modelled >4000 measurements, spanning 50 years, of (137)Cs in foodstuffs and whole diet in Japan after nuclear weapons testing (NWT) and the Chernobyl accident. Broadly consistent long term trends in (137)Cs activity concentrations are seen between different agricultural foodstuffs; whole diet follows this general trend with remarkably little variation between averages for different regions of Japan. Model blind tests against post-NWT data for the Fukushima Prefecture showed good predictions for radiocaesium in whole diet, spinach and Japanese radish (for which good long term test data were available). For the post-Fukushima period to 2015, radiocaesium in the average diet followed a declining time trend consistent with that seen after NWT and Chernobyl. Data for different regions post-Fukushima show a high degree of mixing of dietary foodstuffs between regions: significant over-estimates of average dietary (137)Cs were made when it was assumed that only regionally-produced food was consumed. Predictions of mean committed effective internal doses from dietary (137)Cs (2011 to 2061) in non-evacuated parts of the Fukushima Prefecture show that average internal dose is relatively low. This study focused on average regional ingestion dose rates and does not attempt to make site specific predictions. However, temporal trends identified could form a basis for site specific predictions of long term activity concentrations in agricultural products and diet both outside and (to assess potential re-use) inside currently evacuated areas. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Pattern and Variation in the Timing of Aksak Meter: Commentary on Goldberg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainer Polak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Daniel Goldberg (2015, this issue explores relations between timing variations, grouping structure, and musical form in the percussive accompaniment of Balkan folk dance music. A chronometric re-analysis of one of the target article’s two audio samples finds a regular metric timing pattern to consistently underlie the variations Goldberg uncovered. Read together, the target article and this commentary demonstrate the complex interplay of a regular timing pattern with several levels of nuanced variation to be performed with fluency, flexibility, and accuracy. This might appear commonplace, but here it is observed in the context of an asymmetric rhythmic mode, non-isochronous beat sequence, and asymmetric metric hierarchy. This context evidently does not represent a constraint of any sort in respect to the rhythmic timing performance, which casts doubts on the deep-seated assumption that metric regularity depends on iso-periodicity and vertical symmetry. This assumption is sometimes explicitly and often implicitly taken as universal; this comment suggests that, on the contrary, it might well be culturally biased.

  19. Rate and time trend of perinatal, infant, maternal mortality, natality and natural population growth in kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    THE AIM OF WORK HAS BEEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RATE AND TIME TRENDS OF SOME INDICATORS OF THE HEATH CONDITION OF MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN KOSOVO: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality

  20. Growth variation, final height and secular trend. Proceedings of the 17th Aschauer Soiree, 7th November 2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanussen, M.; Godina, E.; Rühli, F.J.; Blaha, P.; Boldsen, J.L.; Buuren, S. van; MacIntyre, M.; Aßmann, C.; Ghosh, A.; Stefano, G.F. de; Sonkin, V.D.; Tresguerres, J.A.F.; Meigen, C.; Scheffler, C.; Geiger, C.; Lieberman, L.S.

    2010-01-01

    Growth and body height have always been topics interesting to the public. In particular, the stupendous increase of some 15-19. cm in final adult height during the last 150 years in most European countries (the " secular trend" ), the concomitant changes in body and head proportions, the tendency

  1. Cancer patient survival in Estonia 1995-2009: time trends and data quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Innos, K; Baburin, A; Aareleid, T

    2014-06-01

    Survival from most cancers in Estonia has been consistently below European average. The objective of this study was to examine recent survival trends in Estonia and to quantify the effect on survival estimates of the temporary disruption of the Estonian Cancer Registry (ECR) practices in 2001-2007 when death certificates could not be used for case ascertainment. ECR data on all adult cases of 16 common cancers diagnosed in Estonia during 1995-2008 and followed up for vital status until 2009 were used to estimate relative survival ratios (RSR). We used cohort analysis for patients diagnosed in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004; and period hybrid approach to obtain the most recent estimates (2005-2009). We compared five-year RSRs calculated from data sets with and without death certificate initiated (DCI) cases. A total of 64328 cancer cases were included in survival analysis. Compared with 1995-1999, five-year age-standardized RSR increased 20 percent units for prostate cancer, reaching 76% in 2005-2009. A rise of 10 percent units or more was also seen for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (five-year RSR 51% in 2005-2009), and cancers of rectum (49%), breast (73%) and ovary (37%). The effect of including/excluding DCI cases from survival analysis was small except for lung and pancreatic cancers. Relative survival continued to increase in Estonia during the first decade of the 21st century, although for many cancers, a gap between Estonia and more affluent countries still exists. Cancer control efforts should aim at the reduction of risk factors amenable to primary prevention, but also at the improvement of early diagnosis and ensuring timely and optimal care to all cancer patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Did FDA Decisionmaking Affect Anti-Psychotic Drug Prescribing in Children?: A Time-Trend Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Franklin, Jessica M; Eddings, Wesley; Landon, Joan; Kesselheim, Aaron S

    2016-01-01

    Following Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, many drugs are prescribed for non-FDA-approved ("off-label") uses. If substantial evidence supports the efficacy and safety of off-label indications, manufacturers can pursue formal FDA approval through supplemental new drug applications (sNDAs). We evaluated the effect of FDA determinations on pediatric sNDAs for antipsychotic drugs on prescribing of these products in children. Retrospective, segmented time-series analysis using new prescription claims during 2003-2012 for three atypical antipsychotics (olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone). FDA approved the sNDAs for pediatric use of olanzapine and quetiapine in December 2009, but did not approve the sNDA for pediatric use of ziprasidone. During the months before FDA approval of its pediatric sNDA, new prescriptions of olanzapine decreased for both children and adults. After FDA approval, the increase in prescribing trends was similar for both age groups (P = 0.47 for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder; P = 0.37 for other indications). Comparable decreases in use of quetiapine were observed between pediatrics and adults following FDA approval of its pediatric sNDA (P = 0.88; P = 0.63). Prescribing of ziprasidone decreased similarly for pediatric and adult patients after FDA non-approval of its pediatric sNDA (P = 0.61; P = 0.79). The FDA's sNDA determinations relating to use of antipsychotics in children did not result in changes in use that favored the approved sNDAs and disfavored the unapproved sNDA. Improved communication may help translate the agency's expert judgments to clinical practice.

  3. Strategically Timed Preventive Education and Media Strategies Reduce Seasonal Trends in Adolescent Conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauster, A; Waddington, A; Jamieson, M A

    2015-08-01

    This study sought to analyze the effect of strategically timed local preventive education on reducing teen conception rates during known seasonal peaks in March and April. All teen conceptions (age ≤ 19) from March and April 2010, 2011, and 2012 were identified using medical records data. Teen conceptions occurring in January 2010, 2011, and 2012 were also identified to control for any new trends in the community. A city of 160,000 with 1 tertiary care centre. Pregnant adolescents (age ≤ 19). During the month of February 2012, preventive education and media awareness strategies were aimed at parents, teachers, and teens. Adolescent conceptions in March and April 2012. Conception rates in teens ≤18 years old were significantly reduced in March and April 2012 compared to March and April 2010 and 2011 (RR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32 - 0.88, P = .0132). There was an increase in conceptions in March and April 2012 compared to 2010 and 2011 among 19-year-olds (RR = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.84-2.9, P = .1500). Effect modification revealed our ≤18-year-old group and our 19-year-old group were distinct groups with different risk estimates (P = .0075). Educational sessions were poorly attended and contraception clinic volume was static. We propose increased parental supervision in response to media reminders as a possible explanation for the reduction in adolescent conceptions (≤18 years old) seen in March 2012. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Time trend of substance use among adolescent students in Taiwan, 1991-1996.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, P; Liou, M Y; Lai, M Y; Hsiao, M L; Chang, H J

    1999-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and time trend of cigarette, alcohol, and illicit substance use among adolescent students in Taiwan, from 1991 through 1996. Subjects were selected through a two-stage random-sampling procedure. In the first stage, the strata were based on the type of school: middle school (13-15 years), high school (16-18), vocational school (16-18), and junior college (first 3 years only, 16-18). In the second stage, the strata were based on grade: one class each for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd grades were randomly selected from each type of school. Students were guaranteed anonymity before the questionnaire was administered. About 12,000 students from 100 schools participated each year in 1991 and 1994-1996. In 1993, 8,320 students from 65 schools participated. The prevalence of smoking and drinking decreased between 1991 and 1994, and then increased between 1994 and 1996. In 1996, the prevalence of illicit substance use was 15.4% for smoking, 16.7% for drinking, and 1.5% for illicit substance use. The rate of illicit substance use was lowest among high school students, followed by middle school students, and higher among students in vocational schools and junior colleges. The percentage of smokers and drinkers who had started early (at age 12 or earlier) rose every year. The prevalence of smoking and drinking habits among girls increased consistently during the study period. The most commonly abused substance was amphetamine. However, in 1996, sniffing glue became more prominent among middle school students, and flunitrazepam became the second most commonly abused substance among high school students.

  5. Time Trends and Patterns of Reported Egg Consumption in the U.S. by Sociodemographic Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, Zach; Johnson, LuAnn K; Roemmich, James N; Juan, WenYen; Jahns, Lisa

    2017-03-28

    Eggs have the potential to contribute essential nutrients to nutritionally vulnerable populations on limited food budgets. Further research is needed to better understand patterns of egg consumption across diverse sociodemographic groups in order to inform clinical practice to improve nutrient adequacy. Data on demographics and egg intake of 29,694 U.S. adults were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001-2012. The National Cancer Institute's usual intake methodology was used to estimate the distribution of egg intake. Linear and logistic regression models were used to test for time trends in egg consumption and for differences between sociodemographic groups. The proportion of the U.S. population, overall (21%-22%; p = 0.311) and by sociodemographic group (p > 0.05 for all groups), that reported consuming eggs remained unchanged from 2001 to 2012. Mean egg consumption increased overall from 23.0 (95% CI, 20.8-25.2) g/day in 2001-2002 to 25.5 (22.7-28.4) g/day in 2011-2012 (p = 0.012), but not among food insecure individuals (p = 0.816) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants (p = 0.399). No differences in the odds of egg consumption were observed by income level, food security status, or SNAP participation status (p > 0.05 for all groups). Given the nutritional benefits of eggs, as well as their low cost and culinary versatility, the results presented here have important implications for reducing disparities in health outcomes and diet quality, in particular among food insecure individuals and SNAP participants. Further research is needed to examine factors that influence egg consumption and associated nutrient intake, and to identify potential barriers to increasing egg consumption, such as egg price changes, across diverse sociodemographic groups.

  6. Time Trends in Murray's Psychogenic Needs over Three Decades in Swedish 75-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, Eva; Waern, Margda; Falk, Hanna; Duberstein, Paul; Östling, Svante; Hällström, Tore; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-01-01

    While time trends in personality traits have been suggested in younger cohorts, little is known regarding this issue in older adults. To test for birth cohort changes in psychogenic needs according to Murray's theory of personality in two birth cohorts of 75-year-olds born 1901-1902 and 1930. Two population-based birth cohorts were examined at the age of 75 years in 1976-1977 and in 2005-2006. Psychogenic needs according to Murray were measured with the Cesarec-Marke Personality Schedule (CMPS), a Swedish version of the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule. Scores on the CMPS subscales (achievement, affiliation, aggression, defence of status, guilt feelings, dominance, exhibition, autonomy, nurturance, order, succorance, and acquiescence) were compared between cohorts. Achievement, exhibition, dominance, aggression, affiliation, and succorance scores were higher, and order and acquiescence scores lower, in the more recent birth cohort of 75-year-olds. Women scored lower than men on exhibition and dominance, and higher on defence of status, guilt feelings, affiliation, nurturance, and succorance. Interaction effects between cohort and sex were found for achievement (women scored lower than men in 1976-1977 but not in 2005-2006), order (the lower scores in 2005-2006 were more accentuated among men), and acquiescence (increased in men and decreased in women). The later-born birth cohort scored higher on self-centred traits, such as more dominant, competitive, and exhibitive traits as well as the need to be taken care of and have friends around, but it scored lower on the need for order. The gap between men and women regarding achievement decreased, possibly reflecting women's more prominent role in society. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Clinical signs indicative of temporomandibular disorders in adults: time trends and associated factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Alkisti Anastassaki; Hugoson, Anders; Magnusson, Tomas

    2013-01-01

    The study aimed to examine possible time trends in the prevalence of clinical signs indicative of temporomandibular disorder (TMD) in an adult population, to analyse possible associations between TMD signs and associated factors and to estimate the need for TMD treatment. Three independent, stratified and randomly selected samples of around 100 individuals in the age groups of 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 years participated in the Jönköping studies in 1983,1993 and 2003. The study material consisted of 1,693 subjects who, after answering a questionnaire and being interviewed about the presence of TMD symptoms, were clinically examined in terms of the presence of TMD signs according to the Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di) by Helkimo. Associations between clinical signs and the Di as dependent variables and each of the independent variables of age group, gender, reported bruxism, trauma, self-perceived healthiness and the year of investigation were analysed in binary logistic regression models. Estimates of the need for TMD treatment were based on the presence of a combination of severe symptoms and clinical signs. The prevalence of severely impaired jaw movement capacity, relating to horizontal movements, had increased in 2003. The prevalence of muscle pain and temporomandibular joint pain upon posterior palpation was found to vary statistically significantly between 1993 and 2003. Gender differences were noted in these changes overtime. Female gender, advancing age, awareness of bruxism, self-perceived health impairment and the wearing of complete dentures were associated with TMD signs and a higher degree of clinical dysfunction. The estimated need for TMD treatment increased from 5% in 1983 to 8% in 2003 and was higher in women than in men. In conclusion, the results indicate that the prevalence of some TMD signs and of estimated treatment need increased during the period 1983-2003.

  8. Time trends in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Norway during eight decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grytten, N; Torkildsen, Ø; Myhr, K-M

    2015-01-01

    Norway has been subjected to numerous epidemiological investigations on the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS), dating back to 1935. The objective of this study was to review the studies on the prevalence and incidence of MS in Norway, provide an update on the prevalence of MS in Norway, and describe the time trends in the prevalence and incidence of MS in relation to risk factors, case ascertainment, and data. We performed a systematic search on PubMed and MEDLINE up to November 2014 using the search string ‘multiple sclerosis prevalence in Norway’ or ‘multiple sclerosis incidence in Norway’. In addition, we scrutinized the reference lists of the publications identified for relevant citations. We retrieved data on the distribution of MS in Norway on December 31, 2013 from the Norwegian Multiple Sclerosis Registry and Biobank and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We identified 29 articles. From 1961 to 2014, the reported prevalence of MS increased from 20 to 203 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the incidence increased from 1.9 to 8.0 per 100,000. The nationwide crude prevalence in Norway, based on the Norwegian Patient Registry, was 208 per 100,000 on December 31, 2013. The reported prevalence of MS in Norway has increased 10-fold, with several possible causes. During eight decades, neurological health services have generally become more accessible to the population, and transforming diagnostic criteria has made the diagnosis of MS more precise and valid. There have also been changes in lifestyle behavior and known risk factors, such as vitamin D and smoking, that might have contributed to the increased incidence of MS. A possible role of increased survival in MS needs to be examined further. This article is commented on by Berg-Hansen et al, published in 132: 364–367 (DOI: 10.1111/ane.12489). PMID:26046556

  9. Time-dependent variational principle in matrix-product state manifolds: Pitfalls and potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloss, Benedikt; Lev, Yevgeny Bar; Reichman, David

    2018-01-01

    We study the applicability of the time-dependent variational principle in matrix-product state manifolds for the long time description of quantum interacting systems. By studying integrable and nonintegrable systems for which the long time dynamics are known we demonstrate that convergence of long time observables is subtle and needs to be examined carefully. Remarkably, for the disordered nonintegrable system we consider the long time dynamics are in good agreement with the rigorously obtained short time behavior and with previous obtained numerically exact results, suggesting that at least in this case, the apparent convergence of this approach is reliable. Our study indicates that, while great care must be exercised in establishing the convergence of the method, it may still be asymptotically accurate for a class of disordered nonintegrable quantum systems.

  10. RADON IN GROUNDWATERS IN THE BAIKAL REGION AND TRANSBAIKALIA: VARIATIONS IN SPACE AND TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zh. Seminsky

    2016-01-01

    -fault water sources (Group II. Despite the distinct variations in radioactivity, the Q values recorded through most of the monitoring time do not exceed the threshold Q values for the respective groups. It appears that the observed periodic anomalously high and low contents of radon are due to seasonally variable meteorological parameters (see Fig. 6.The correlation analysis of Q values and atmospheric pressure (P, air humidity (U and temperature (T shows a clear dependence of the content of radon in groundwater on T and P values (Table 3. Following the major seasonal trend of air temperature, the level of radioactivity is increased in the water samples taken in winter and decreased in summer (see Fig. 6. Q values are indirectly influenced by parameter T via changes of water temperature, variations in flow rates of water sources, freezing of the top layer of soil and other processes, which parameters require further research.According to the monitoring data (see Table 3, and Fig. 6, A, the content of radon in near-surface water sources (Group I can vary by a few and the first dozens of units, while changes by tens of becquerel per liter are recorded in the deeper near-fault water sources (Group II. As a consequence, in short periods of extreme Q values, the content of radon in a water source may increase or decrease to a value corresponding to a neighbouring radon-radioactivity group.This paper provides an overview of the radon activity of groundwater in the Baikal region and Transbaikalia with a focus on regularities in the spatial and temporal patterns of 222Rn in the water sources with Q<185 Bq/l. The nonradon waters are more abundant in the Baikal region, including areas of active use of natural resources. Although the content of 222Rn in low, such waters should be a target of further research aimed to explore medicinal water sources, assess drinking water quality, and discover the emanation precursors of strong earthquakes in the study region.

  11. A New Technique of Laplace Variational Iteration Method for Solving Space-Time Fractional Telegraph Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatima A. Alawad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the exact solutions of space-time fractional telegraph equations are given in terms of Mittage-Leffler functions via a combination of Laplace transform and variational iteration method. New techniques are used to overcome the difficulties arising in identifying the general Lagrange multiplier. As a special case, the obtained solutions reduce to the solutions of standard telegraph equations of the integer orders.

  12. Long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity among Dutch men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, T L S; Kromhout, D.; Seidell, J C

    OBJECTIVE: To describe long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity by age and educational level. DESIGN: :Repeated cross-sectional population based monitoring studies. SETTING: Consultation Bureau Heart Project 1976-1980, Monitoring Project on Cardiovascular Diseases 1987-1991 and

  13. Modelling Patterns of Improvement over Time: Value Added Trends in English Secondary School Performance across Ten Cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Sally; Peng, Wen Jung; Gray, John

    2007-01-01

    This paper looks at underlying patterns of school effectiveness through analysing a GCSE examination data-set over a period of ten cohorts (1993-2002) in one very large English school district. Both value added and raw score approaches were explored by employing different statistical multilevel models to examine time trends of school and pupil…

  14. Small-study effects and time trends in diagnostic test accuracy meta-analyses : a meta-epidemiological study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Enst, Wynanda Annefloor; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; Ochodo, Eleanor A; de Groot, Joris A.H.; Leeflang, Mariska M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Scholten, Rob J P M; Moons, Karel G M; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Hooft, Lotty

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Small-study effects and time trends have been identified in meta-analyses of randomized trials. We evaluated whether these effects are also present in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies. METHODS: A systematic search identified test accuracy meta-analyses published between

  15. Sexual Dimorphism of the Human Tibia through Time: Insights into Shape Variation Using a Surface-Based Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hana Brzobohatá

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a three-dimensional (3D morphometrical assessment of human tibia sexual dimorphism based on whole bone digital representation. To detect shape-size and shape differences between sexes, we used geometric morphometric tools and colour-coded surface deviation maps. The surface-based methodology enabled analysis of sexually dimorphic features throughout the shaft and articular ends of the tibia. The overall study dataset consisted of 183 3D models of adult tibiae from three Czech population subsets, dating to the early medieval (9-10th century (N = 65, early 20th century (N = 61 and 21st-century (N = 57. The time gap between the chronologically most distant and contemporary datasets was more than 1200 years. The results showed that, in all three datasets, sexual dimorphism was pronounced. There were some sex-dimorphic characteristics common to all three samples, such as tuberosity protrusion, anteriorly bowed shaft and relatively larger articular ends in males. Diachronic comparisons also revealed substantial shape variation related to the most dimorphic area. Male/female distinctions showed a consistent temporal trend regarding the location of dimorphic areas (shifting distally with time, while the maximal deviation between male and female digitized surfaces fluctuated and reached the lowest level in the 21st-century sample. Sex determination on a whole-surface basis yielded the lowest return of correct sex assignment in the 20th-century group, which represented the lowest socioeconomic status. The temporal variation could be attributed to changes in living conditions, the decreasing lower limb loading/labour division in the last 12 centuries having the greatest effect. Overall, the results showed that a surface-based approach is successful for analysing complex long bone geometry.

  16. Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

    2009-04-01

    The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire

  17. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society.

  18. Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

    2015-01-01

    Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

  19. Atmospheric CO2 variations on orbital time scale during the Paleocene and Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, R. E.; Westerhold, T.; Littler, K.; Zachos, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-million-year proxy records (d13C, d18O, %CaCO3, Fe, etc.) show prominent variations on orbital time scale during the Paleocene and Eocene. The cycles have been identified at various sites across the globe and preferentially concentrate spectral power at eccentricity and precessional frequencies. It is almost certain that these cycles are an expression of changes in global climate and carbon cycling paced by orbital variations. However, little is currently known about (1) the driving mechanism linking orbital forcing to changes in climate and carbon cycling and (2) the amplitude of atmospheric CO2 variations associated with these cycles. We have used simple and complex carbon cycle models to explore the basic effect of different orbital forcing schemes and noise on the carbon cycle by forcing different carbon cycle parameters. For direct insolation forcing (opposed to eccentricity - tilt - precession), one major challenge is understanding how the system transfers spectral power from high to low frequencies. We will discuss feasible solutions to this problem, including insolation transformations analogous to electronic AC-DC conversion (DC'ing). Our results show that high-latitude mechanisms are unlikely drivers of orbitally paced changes in the Paleocene-Eocene Earth system. Based on a synthesis of modeling and proxy data analysis, we present the first estimates of orbital-scale variations in atmospheric CO2 during the Paleocene and Eocene.

  20. Office workers' objectively assessed total and prolonged sitting time: Individual-level correlates and worksite variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nyssa T. Hadgraft

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Sedentary behavior is highly prevalent in office-based workplaces; however, few studies have assessed the attributes associated with this health risk factor in the workplace setting. This study aimed to identify the correlates of office workers' objectively-assessed total and prolonged (≥30 min bouts workplace sitting time. Participants were 231 Australian office workers recruited from 14 sites of a single government employer in 2012–13. Potential socio-demographic, work-related, health-related and cognitive-social correlates were measured through a self-administered survey and anthropometric measurements. Associations with total and prolonged workplace sitting time (measured with the activPAL3 were tested using linear mixed models. Worksites varied significantly in total workplace sitting time (overall mean [SD]: 79% [10%] of work hours and prolonged workplace sitting time (42% [19%], after adjusting for socio-demographic and work-related characteristics. Organisational tenure of 3–5 years (compared to tenure >5 years was associated with more time spent in total and prolonged workplace sitting time, while having a BMI categorised as obese (compared to a healthy BMI was associated with less time spent in total and prolonged workplace sitting time. Significant variations in sitting time were observed across different worksites of the same employer and the variation remained after adjusting for individual-level factors. Only BMI and organisational tenure were identified as correlates of total and prolonged workplace sitting time. Additional studies are needed to confirm the present findings across diverse organisations and occupations.

  1. Variation in Locoregional Prostate Cancer Care and Treatment Trends at Commission on Cancer Designated Facilities: A National Cancer Data Base Analysis 2004 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löppenberg, Björn; Sood, Akshay; Dalela, Deepansh; Karabon, Patrick; Sammon, Jesse D; Vetterlein, Malte W; Noldus, Joachim; Peabody, James O; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Menon, Mani; Abdollah, Firas

    2017-12-01

    Contemporary treatment trends for prostate cancer show increased rates of active surveillance. However, nationwide applicability of these reports is limited. Additionally, the effect of Commission on Cancer facility type on prostate cancer treatment patterns is unknown. We used the National Cancer Data Base to identify men diagnosed with prostate cancer, between 2004 and 2013. Our cohort was stratified on the basis of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network prostate cancer risk classes. Cochran-Armitage tests were used to evaluate temporal trends. Random effects hierarchical logit models were used to assess treatment variation at Commission on Cancer facility and institution level. In 825,707 men, utilization of radiation therapy declined and utilization of radical prostatectomy increased for all prostate cancer risk groups between 2004 and 2013 (P < .0001). Observation for low-risk prostate cancer increased from 16.3% in 2004 to 2005 to 32.0% in 2012 to 2013 (P < .0001). Significant treatment variation was observed on the basis of Commission on Cancer facility type. Across all risk groups, the lowest rates of radical prostatectomy and highest rates of external beam radiation therapy were observed in community cancer programs. The highest rates of observation for low-risk disease were observed in academic centers. Treatment variation according to institution ranged from 14% (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.15) for androgen deprivation therapy up to 59% (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.73) for cryotherapy. The increased utilization of observation in low-risk prostate cancer is an encouraging finding, which appears to be mainly derived by a decrease in radiotherapy utilization in this risk group. Regardless of tumor characteristics, significant variations in treatment modality exist among different facility types and institutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob Groshek; Megan Clough Groshek

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  3. Potential Impact of Time Trend of Life-Style Factors on Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanping; Wang, Dong D; Ley, Sylvia H; Howard, Annie Green; He, Yuna; Lu, Yuan; Danaei, Goodarz; Hu, Frank B

    2016-08-23

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in China. Evaluation of risk factors and their impacts on disease burden is important for future public health initiatives and policy making. The study used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey to estimate time trends in cardiovascular risk factors from 1991 to 2011. We applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CVD events attributable to all nonoptimal levels (e.g., theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution [TMRED]) of each risk factor. In 2011, high blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high blood glucose were associated with 3.1, 1.4, and 0.9 million CVD events in China, respectively. Increase in body mass index was associated with an increase in attributable CVD events, from 0.5 to 1.1 million between 1991 and 2011, whereas decreased physical activity was associated with a 0.7-million increase in attributable CVD events. In 2011, 53.4% of men used tobacco, estimated to be responsible for 30.1% of CVD burden in men. Dietary quality improved, but remained suboptimal; mean intakes were 5.4 (TMRED: 2.0) g/day for sodium, 67.7 (TMRED: 300.0) g/day for fruits, 6.2 (TMRED: 114.0) g/day for nuts, and 25.0 (TMRED: 250.0) mg/day for marine omega-3 fatty acids in 2011. High blood pressure remains the most important individual risk factor related to CVD burden in China. Increased body mass index and decreased physical activity were also associated with the increase in CVD burden from 1991 to 2011. High rates of tobacco use in men and unhealthy dietary factors continue to contribute to the burden of CVD in China. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Upward trend in vehicle-miles resumed during 2009 : a time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    After a 2-year interruption to a long-term upward trend, the : number of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) on the Nations highways : appears to have resumed a pattern of upward growth in : 2009. While VMT rises and falls seasonally, the years 2007 : an...

  5. Space–time trends in Spanish bird electrocution rates from alternative information sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Guil

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Interaction with man-made infrastructures is one of the main sources of non-natural bird mortality. Here, we use a long-term study (1980–2010 to analyse spatial and temporal patterns in avian electrocution in Spain, using ringed birds as well as published reports and articles as information sources. Electrocution rates of ringed birds differ from rates obtained in unringed species. Electrocution rates are likely seasonally asymmetrical and are not constant across study periods: between 1990 and 2005 an annual rising trend of 5% was observed, whereas between 2006 and 2010 this trend decreased (16% annually. From the literature, we confirmed this decreasing trend. However, when we consider large eagles (Aquila genus, which include several of the most threatened bird species in Spain, this decreasing trend is not evident. The results of the analysis of different environmental and socio-economic factors affecting bird electrocution rates are similar between ringed birds and traditional power line surveys. Our modelling suggests three common factors that influence mortality rates: number of hunted rabbits, tree coverage and length of the power line network. Thus, the use of alternative information sources to detect high mortality areas due to electrocution by power lines may be a useful tool to complement other methods.

  6. Time trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia, 1998-2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. de Vries (Esther); I. Arroyave (Ivan); C. Pardo (Constanza)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: To evaluate trends in premature cancer mortality in Colombia by educational level in three periods: 1998-2002 with low healthcare insurance coverage, 2003-2007 with rapidly increasing coverage and finally 2008-2012 with almost universal coverage (2008-2012). Setting:

  7. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  8. The Anticorrelated Nature of the Primary and Secondary Eclipse Timing Variations for the Kepler Contact Binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, K.; Levine, A.; Rappaport, S.; Borkovits, T.; Csizmadia, Sz.; Kalomeni, B.

    2013-09-01

    We report a study of the eclipse timing variations in contact binary systems, using long-cadence lightcurves from the Kepler archive. As a first step, observed minus calculated (O - C) curves were produced for both the primary and secondary eclipses of some 2000 Kepler binaries. We find ~390 short-period binaries with O - C curves that exhibit (1) random walk-like variations or quasi-periodicities, with typical amplitudes of ±200-300 s, and (2) anticorrelations between the primary and secondary eclipse timing variations. We present a detailed analysis and results for 32 of these binaries with orbital periods in the range of 0.35 ± 0.05 days. The anticorrelations observed in their O - C curves cannot be explained by a model involving mass transfer, which, among other things, requires implausibly high rates of ~0.01 M ⊙ yr-1. We show that the anticorrelated behavior, the amplitude of the O - C delays, and the overall random walk-like behavior can be explained by the presence of a starspot that is continuously visible around the orbit and slowly changes its longitude on timescales of weeks to months. The quasi-periods of ~50-200 days observed in the O - C curves suggest values for k, the coefficient of the latitude dependence of the stellar differential rotation, of ~0.003-0.013.

  9. Local Times of Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Maximum and Minimum in the Diurnal Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yeon Oh

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Diurnal variation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR flux intensity observed by the ground Neutron Monitor (NM shows a sinusoidal pattern with the amplitude of 1sim 2 % of daily mean. We carried out a statistical study on tendencies of the local times of GCR intensity daily maximum and minimum. To test the influences of the solar activity and the location (cut-off rigidity on the distribution in the local times of maximum and minimum GCR intensity, we have examined the data of 1996 (solar minimum and 2000 (solar maximum at the low-latitude Haleakala (latitude: 20.72 N, cut-off rigidity: 12.91 GeV and the high-latitude Oulu (latitude: 65.05 N, cut-off rigidity: 0.81 GeV NM stations. The most frequent local times of the GCR intensity daily maximum and minimum come later about 2sim3 hours in the solar activity maximum year 2000 than in the solar activity minimum year 1996. Oulu NM station whose cut-off rigidity is smaller has the most frequent local times of the GCR intensity maximum and minimum later by 2sim3 hours from those of Haleakala station. This feature is more evident at the solar maximum. The phase of the daily variation in GCR is dependent upon the interplanetary magnetic field varying with the solar activity and the cut-off rigidity varying with the geographic latitude.

  10. Hardness improvement on low carbon steel using pack carbonitriding method with holding time variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puspitasari Poppy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbonitriding is a surface hardening process of steel by heating on critical temperature, quench and followed by tempering process. In this research, pack media in carbonitriding was used as a new method. Usually, this process has been obtained using gas and liquid carbonitriding methods. The specimen used in this research is low carbon steel (St. 41 consist of 0.1517% carbon, 0.1994% of silicon, 0.5631% of manganese, 0.0224% of phosphorus, and 0.047% of sulfur. Temperature for pack carbonitriding was at 700 °C, 750 °C and 800 °C and holding time variation 60 minutes and 120 minutes respectively. The result showed that carbonitriding temperature difference affect the mechanical properties of steel St. 41. Steel hardness was increased at lower holding time (60 minutes compared to 120 minutes. The result showed that at 700 °C and 750 °C with 60 minutes variation, the steel hardness increase from 85.7 HRB to 95.7 HRB and at 800 °C the hardness decrease to 93.1 HRB. Meanwhile, at holding time of 120 minutes, steel hardness decrease from 94.1 HRB to 92.7 HRB. This result caused by austenite phase produced at longer period of holding time.

  11. Lap time variation and executive function in older adults: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Qu; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Resnick, Susan M; Shardell, Michelle D; Ferrucci, Luigi; Studenski, Stephanie A

    2015-09-01

    poor cognitive and motor performance predicts neurological dysfunction. Variable performance may be a subclinical indicator of emerging neurological problems. examine the cross-sectional association between a clinically accessible measure of variable walking and executive function. older adults aged 60 or older from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (n = 811) with data on the 400-m walk test and cognition. Based on ten 40-m laps, we calculated mean lap time (MLT) and variation in time across ten 40-m laps (lap time variation, LTV). Executive function tests assessed attention and short-term memory (digit span forward and backward), psychomotor speed [Trail Making Test (TMT) part A] and multicomponent tasks requiring cognitive flexibility [TMT part B, part B-A (Delta TMT) and digit symbol substitution test (DSST)]. Multivariate linear regression analysis examined the cross-sectional association between LTV and executive function, adjusted for MLT, age, sex and education, as well as the LTV × MLT interaction. the LTV was univariately associated with all executive function tests except digit span (P < 0.001); after adjustment, the association with TMT part A remained (standardised β = 0.142, P = 0.002). There was an interaction between MLT and LTV; among fast walkers, greater LTV was associated with a greater Delta TMT (β for LTV × MLT = -1.121, P = 0.016) after adjustment. at any walking speed, greater LTV is associated with psychomotor slowing. Among persons with faster walking speed, variation is associated with worse performance on a complex measure of cognitive flexibility. A simple measure of variability in walking time is independently associated with psychomotor slowing. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Seasonal variation in vegetation water content estimated from proximal sensing and MODIS time series in a Mediterranean Fluxnet site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendiguren, G.; Martín, M. P.; Nieto, H.; Pacheco-Labrador, J.; Jurdao, S.

    2015-04-01

    This study evaluates three different metrics of vegetation water content estimated from proximal sensing and MODIS satellite imagery: Fuel Moisture Content (FMC), Equivalent Water Thickness (EWT) and Canopy Water Content (CWC). Dry matter (Dm) and Leaf area Index (LAI) were also analyzed in order to connect FMC with EWT and EWT with CWC, respectively. This research took place in a Fluxnet site located in Mediterranean wooded grassland (dehesa) ecosystem in Las Majadas del Tietar (Spain). Results indicated that FMC and EWT showed lower spatial variation than CWC. The spatial variation within the MODIS pixel was not as critical as its temporal trend, so to capture better the variability, fewer plots should be sampled but more times. Due to the high seasonal Dm variability, a constant annual value would not work to predict EWT from FMC. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) evaluated the performance of nine spectral indices to compute each variable. VARI provided the worst results in all cases. For proximal sensing, GEMI worked best for both FMC (RRMSE = 34.5%) and EWT (RRMSE = 27.43%) while NDII and GVMI performed best for CWC (RRMSE =30.27% and 31.58% respectively). For MODIS data, results were a bit better with EVI as the best predictor for FMC (RRMSE = 33.81%) and CWC (RRMSE = 27.56%) and GEMI for EWT (RRMSE = 24.6%). To explain these differences, proximal sensing measures only grasslands at nadir view angle, but MODIS includes also trees, their shades, and other artifacts at up to 20° view angle. CWC was better predicted than the other two water content variables, probably because CWC depends on LAI, which is highly correlated to the spectral indices. Finally, these empirical methods outperformed FMC and CWC products based on radiative transfer model inversion.

  13. Trends and variations in mantle cell lymphoma incidence from 1995 to 2013: A comparative study between Texas and National SEER areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Shuangshuang; Wang, Michael; Lairson, David R; Li, Ruosha; Zhao, Bo; Du, Xianglin L

    2017-12-22

    Few studies have assessed mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) incidence trends in the U.S. National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) areas. Previous studies were 5 to 9 years old and MCL incidence in Texas remains unknown. This study updated the temporal trends and variations of MCL incidence in the SEER areas and compared them with counterpart data in Texas. From 1995 to 2013, there were 2, 435 and 5, 193 newly diagnosed MCL patients in Texas and SEER areas. Age-adjusted MCL incidence was 0.91 per 100,000 persons per year in Texas and 1.01 in SEER areas. MCL incidence increased steadily with an annual percent change (APC) of 2.56% in SEER areas and an APC of 2.16% in Texas. In SEER areas, APCs for MCL incidence were significantly different from zero in patients with advanced stage tumor (3.33%), male (2.71%), elderly patients ≥ 80 years old (4.21%) and non-Hispanic white patients (2.83%) (all P areas, with increases being greater in male, non-Hispanic white, and elderly patient ≥70 years with advanced stage tumors. Texas has similar MCL incidence trends and disparities as the national SEER areas.

  14. A naturally occurring InDel variation in BraA.FLC.b (BrFLC2 associated with flowering time variation in Brassica rapa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Jian

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Flowering time is an important trait in Brassica rapa crops. FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC is a MADS-box transcription factor that acts as a potent repressor of flowering. Expression of FLC is silenced when plants are exposed to low temperature, which activates flowering. There are four copies of FLC in B. rapa. Analyses of different segregating populations have suggested that BraA.FLC.a (BrFLC1 and BraA.FLC.b (BrFLC2 play major roles in controlling flowering time in B. rapa. Results We analyzed the BrFLC2 sequence in nine B. rapa accessions, and identified a 57-bp insertion/deletion (InDel across exon 4 and intron 4 resulting in a non-functional allele. In total, three types of transcripts were identified for this mutated BrFLC2 allele. The InDel was used to develop a PCR-based marker, which was used to screen a collection of 159 B. rapa accessions. The deletion genotype was present only in oil-type B. rapa, including ssp. oleifera and ssp. tricolaris, and not in other subspecies. The deletion genotype was significantly correlated with variation in flowering time. In contrast, the reported splicing site variation in BrFLC1, which also leads to a non-functional locus, was detected but not correlated with variation in flowering time in oil-type B. rapa, although it was correlated with variation in flowering time in vegetable-type B. rapa. Conclusions Our results suggest that the naturally occurring deletion mutation across exon 4 and intron 4 in BrFLC2 gene contributes greatly to variation in flowering time in oil-type B. rapa. The observed different relationship between BrFLC1 or BrFLC2 and flowering time variation indicates that the control of flowering time has evolved separately between oil-type and vegetable-type B. rapa groups.

  15. A naturally occurring InDel variation in BraA.FLC.b (BrFLC2) associated with flowering time variation in Brassica rapa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Wei, Keyun; Cheng, Feng; Li, Shikai; Wang, Qian; Zhao, Jianjun; Bonnema, Guusje; Wang, Xiaowu

    2012-08-28

    Flowering time is an important trait in Brassica rapa crops. FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC) is a MADS-box transcription factor that acts as a potent repressor of flowering. Expression of FLC is silenced when plants are exposed to low temperature, which activates flowering. There are four copies of FLC in B. rapa. Analyses of different segregating populations have suggested that BraA.FLC.a (BrFLC1) and BraA.FLC.b (BrFLC2) play major roles in controlling flowering time in B. rapa. We analyzed the BrFLC2 sequence in nine B. rapa accessions, and identified a 57-bp insertion/deletion (InDel) across exon 4 and intron 4 resulting in a non-functional allele. In total, three types of transcripts were identified for this mutated BrFLC2 allele. The InDel was used to develop a PCR-based marker, which was used to screen a collection of 159 B. rapa accessions. The deletion genotype was present only in oil-type B. rapa, including ssp. oleifera and ssp. tricolaris, and not in other subspecies. The deletion genotype was significantly correlated with variation in flowering time. In contrast, the reported splicing site variation in BrFLC1, which also leads to a non-functional locus, was detected but not correlated with variation in flowering time in oil-type B. rapa, although it was correlated with variation in flowering time in vegetable-type B. rapa. Our results suggest that the naturally occurring deletion mutation across exon 4 and intron 4 in BrFLC2 gene contributes greatly to variation in flowering time in oil-type B. rapa. The observed different relationship between BrFLC1 or BrFLC2 and flowering time variation indicates that the control of flowering time has evolved separately between oil-type and vegetable-type B. rapa groups.

  16. Perception and trends of associated health risks with seasonal climate variation in Oke-Ogun region, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oloukoi, Grace; Bob, Urmilla; Jaggernath, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the perceived and observed trends of associated health risks with seasonal climate variability and identifies types of and preference for adaptation strategies that are available at households and community levels in Oke-Ogun region, Nigeria. The study made use of household survey and rapid appraisal through focus group discussion and key informant interviews. For a short term climate-health impacts analysis, cases of notable diseases were correlated with monthly mean temperature and rainfall for the period 2006 and 2008. The findings show similar trends in relation to local perception on climate-health risks and observed cases of some notable diseases during seasonal changes. Diarrhea, measles and malaria were prevalent during dry season, while flu cases increased at the onset of harmattan and monsoon of rainy season. Available adaptation strategies are autonomous, mostly in the form of treatment measures such as consultation with medical officers in hospitals (17.5%), self-medication (34%) and use of traditional therapy such as herbs (48.5%). Traditional therapy is mostly preferred and approved based on long-term experience of the study population. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Time trends for injuries and illness, and their relation to performance in the National Basketball Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podlog, Leslie; Buhler, Craig F; Pollack, Harvey; Hopkins, Paul N; Burgess, Paul R

    2015-05-01

    To survey injury/illness in the National Basketball Association over a 25-year period and examine the relationship of injury/illness to team performance. A retrospective correlational design. Trends were examined in reported numbers of players injured/ill during a season and games missed due to injury/illness from seasons ending in 1986 through 2005. This period was compared to years 2006-2010, when NBA teams were allowed to increase the total number of players on the team from 12 to 15. There was a highly significant trend (pBasketball Association up until the expansion of team size in 2006. Following 2006, team expansion was positively associated with decreased injury/illness rates. The latter finding suggests the importance of maintaining a healthy roster with respect to winning outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Stage-specific effects of candidate heterochronic genes on variation in developmental time along an altitudinal cline of Drosophila melanogaster.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julián Mensch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Previously, we have shown there is clinal variation for egg-to-adult developmental time along geographic gradients in Drosophila melanogaster. Further, we also have identified mutations in genes involved in metabolic and neurogenic pathways that affect development time (heterochronic genes. However, we do not know whether these loci affect variation in developmental time in natural populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we constructed second chromosome substitution lines from natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster from an altitudinal cline, and measured egg-adult development time for each line. We found not only a large amount of genetic variation for developmental time, but also positive associations of the development time with thermal amplitude and altitude. We performed genetic complementation tests using substitution lines with the longest and shortest developmental times and heterochronic mutations. We identified segregating variation for neurogenic and metabolic genes that largely affected the duration of the larval stages but had no impact on the timing of metamorphosis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Altitudinal clinal variation in developmental time for natural chromosome substitution lines provides a unique opportunity to dissect the response of heterochronic genes to environmental gradients. Ontogenetic stage-specific variation in invected, mastermind, cricklet and CG14591 may affect natural variation in development time and thermal evolution.

  19. Time trend of neurocysticercosis in children with seizures in a tertiary hospital of western Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Rao, Kalipatnam Seshagiri; Adhikari, Sudhir; Gauchan, Eva; Sathian, Brijesh; B. K., Ganesh; Basnet, Sahisnuta; Tiwari, Prabhat Kumar; Bahadur, Namraj; Mishra, Rajnish

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Neurocysticercosis is a common cause of seizure disorders in children of Western Nepal. The clinical presentation is variable. The incidence varies depending on the food habits and ethnicity of the population. The present study was undertaken with the objective of studying the mode of presentation, radiological findings and to determine the recent trend of the disease in children of Western Nepal. Methods Records from the Department of Pediatrics, Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokha...

  20. Time-Dependent Behavior of Shrinkage Strain for Early Age Concrete Affected by Temperature Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Qin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Shrinkage has been proven to be an important property of early age concrete. The shrinkage strain leads to inherent engineering problems, such as cracking and loss of prestress. Atmospheric temperature is an important factor in shrinkage strain. However, current research does not provide much attention to the effect of atmospheric temperature on shrinkage of early age concrete. In this paper, a laboratory study was undertaken to present the time-dependent shrinkage of early age concrete under temperature variation. A newly developed Material Deformation Tester (MDT, which can simulate consecutive variation of atmospheric temperature, was used to collect the shrinkage strain of specimens and temperature data. A numerical model was established to describe the thermoelastic strain of a specimen. The results show that (1 there are several sharp shrinkages up to 600 μ for early age concrete in the first 3 days; (2 the absolute value of shrinkage strain is larger than thermal strain; and (3 the difference of shrinkage strain under temperature variation or constant temperature is up to 500 μ.

  1. Time resolved FTIR study of the catalytic CO oxidation under periodic variation of the reactant concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kritzenberger, J.; Wokaun, A. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Oxidation of CO over palladium/zirconia catalyst obtained from an amorphous Pd{sub 25}Zr{sub 75} precursor was investigated by time resolved FTIR spectroscopy. Sine wave shaped modulation of the reactant concentration, i.e. variation of CO or O{sub 2} partial pressure, was used to induce variations of the IR signals of product (CO{sub 2}) and unconverted reactant (CO), which were detected in a multi-pass absorption cell. The phase shift {phi} between external perturbation and variation of the CO{sub 2} signal was examined in dependence on temperature (100{sup o}C{<=}T{<=}350{sup o}C) and modulation frequency (1.39x10{sup -4}Hz{<=}{omega}{<=}6.67x10{sup -2}Hz). From the phase shift values, a simple Eley-Rideal mechanism is excluded, and the rate limiting step of the Langmuir-Hinshelwood mechanism for the CO oxidation may be identified. Adsorption and possible surface movement of CO to the actual reaction site determine the rate of the CO oxidation on the palladium/zirconia catalyst used in our study. The introduction of an external perturbation is a first step towards the application of two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy to heterogeneous catalyzed reactions. (author) 3 figs., 4 refs.

  2. Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

  3. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  4. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  5. Measurement of Planet Masses with Transit Timing Variations Due to Synodic “Chopping” Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deck, Katherine M.; Agol, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Gravitational interactions between planets in transiting exoplanetary systems lead to variations in the times of transit that are diagnostic of the planetary masses and the dynamical state of the system. Here we show that synodic “chopping” contributions to these transit timing variations (TTVs) can be used to uniquely measure the masses of planets without full dynamical analyses involving direct integration of the equations of motion. We present simple analytic formulae for the chopping signal, which are valid (generally \\lt 10% error) for modest eccentricities e≲ 0.1. Importantly, these formulae primarily depend on the mass of the perturbing planet, and therefore the chopping signal can be used to break the mass/free-eccentricity degeneracy, which can appear for systems near first-order mean motion resonances. Using a harmonic analysis, we apply these TTV formulae to a number of Kepler systems, which had been previously modeled with full dynamical analyses. We show that when chopping is measured, the masses of both planets can be determined uniquely, in agreement with previous results, but without the need for numerical orbit integrations. This demonstrates how mass measurements from TTVs may primarily arise from an observable chopping signal. The formula for chopping can also be used to predict the number of transits and timing precision required for future observations, such as those made by TESS or PLATO, in order to infer planetary masses through analysis of TTVs.

  6. Seasonal time constraints reduce genetic variation in life-history traits along a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sniegula, Szymon; Golab, Maria J; Drobniak, Szymon M; Johansson, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Time constraints cause strong selection on life-history traits, because populations need to complete their life cycles within a shorter time. We therefore expect lower genetic variation in these traits in high- than in low-latitude populations, since the former are more time-constrained. The aim was to estimate life-history traits and their genetic variation in an obligately univoltine damselfly along a latitudinal gradient of 2730 km. Populations were grown in the laboratory at temperatures and photoperiods simulating those at their place of origin. In a complementary experiment, individuals from the same families were grown in constant temperature and photoperiod that mimicked average conditions across the latitude. Development time and size was faster and smaller, respectively, and growth rate was higher at northern latitudes. Additive genetic variance was very low for life-history traits, and estimates for egg development time and larval growth rate showed significant decreases towards northern latitudes. The expression of genetic effects in life-history traits differed considerably when individuals were grown in constant rather than simulated and naturally variable conditions. Our results support strong selection by time constraints. They also highlight the importance of growing organisms in their native environment for correct estimates of genetic variance at their place of origin. Our results also suggest that the evolutionary potential of life-history traits is very low at northern compared to southern latitudes, but that changes in climate could alter this pattern. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

  7. A Linearity-Enhanced Time-Domain CMOS Thermostat with Process-Variation Calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Chi Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a linearity-enhanced time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS thermostat with process-variation calibration for improving the accuracy, expanding the operating temperature range, and reducing test costs. For sensing temperatures in the time domain, the large characteristic curve of a CMOS inverter markedly affects the accuracy, particularly when the operating temperature range is increased. To enhance the on-chip linearity, this study proposes a novel temperature-sensing cell comprising a simple buffer and a buffer with a thermal-compensation circuit to achieve a linearised delay. Thus, a linearity-enhanced oscillator consisting of these cells can generate an oscillation period with high linearity. To achieve one-point calibration support, an adjustable-gain time stretcher and calibration circuit were adopted for the process-variation calibration. The programmable temperature set point was determined using a reference clock and a second (identical adjustable-gain time stretcher. A delay-time comparator with a built-in customised hysteresis circuit was used to perform a time comparison to obtain an appropriate response. Based on the proposed design, a thermostat with a small area of 0.067 mm2 was fabricated using a TSMC 0.35-μm 2P4M CMOS process, and a robust resolution of 0.05 °C and dissipation of 25 μW were achieved at a sample rate of 10 samples/s. An inaccuracy of −0.35 °C to 1.35 °C was achieved after one-point calibration at temperatures ranging from −40 °C to 120 °C. Compared with existing thermostats, the proposed thermostat substantially improves the circuit area, accuracy, operating temperature range, and test costs.

  8. Fast solution of Cahn–Hilliard variational inequalities using implicit time discretization and finite elements

    KAUST Repository

    Bosch, Jessica

    2014-04-01

    We consider the efficient solution of the Cahn-Hilliard variational inequality using an implicit time discretization, which is formulated as an optimal control problem with pointwise constraints on the control. By applying a semi-smooth Newton method combined with a Moreau-Yosida regularization technique for handling the control constraints we show superlinear convergence in function space. At the heart of this method lies the solution of large and sparse linear systems for which we propose the use of preconditioned Krylov subspace solvers using an effective Schur complement approximation. Numerical results illustrate the competitiveness of this approach. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  9. Low Energy Excitations of a Bose-Einstein Condensate: A Time-Dependent Variational Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Garcia, V.M.; Michinel, H.; Cirac, J.; Lewenstein, M.; Zoller, P. [Departamento de Matematicas, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)]|[Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, E. U. Optica e Optometria, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 15706 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)]|[Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de CC. Quimicas, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)]|[Comissariat a l`Energie Atomique, DSM/DRECAM/SPAM, Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)]|[Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck (Austria)

    1996-12-01

    We solve the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation by a variational ansatz to calculate the excitation spectrum of a Bose-Einstein condensate in a trap. The trial wave function is a Gaussian which allows an essentially analytical treatment of the problem. Our results reproduce numerical calculations over the whole range from small to large particle numbers, and agree exactly with the Stringari results in the strong interaction limit. Excellent agreement is obtained with the recent JILA experiment and predictions for the negative scattering length case are also made. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Physical Society.}

  10. Interpretation of engine cycle-to-cycle variation by chaotic time series analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daw, C.S.; Kahl, W.K.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we summarize preliminary results from applying a new mathematical technique -- chaotic time series analysis (CTSA) -- to cylinder pressure data from a spark-ignition (SI) four-stroke engine fueled with both methanol and iso-octane. Our objective is to look for the presence of deterministic chaos'' dynamics in peak pressure variations and to investigate the potential usefulness of CTSA as a diagnostic tool. Our results suggest that sequential peak cylinder pressures exhibit some characteristic features of deterministic chaos and that CTSA can extract previously unrecognized information from such data. 18 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Time variations of fields in superconducting magnets and their effects on accelerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrup, D.A.; Syphers, M.J.; Johnson, D.E.; Johnson, R.P.; Tollestrup, A.V.; Hanft, R.W.; Brown, B.C.; Lamm, M.J.; Kuchnir, M.; McInturff, A.D.

    1988-08-22

    A report on the time dependence of magnetic fields in the superconducting magnets of the Fermilab Tevatron has been published. A field variation of order 1 gauss at the aperture radius is observed. Studies on both full sized Tevatron, dipoles and prototype magnets have been used to elucidate these effects. Explanations based on eddy currents in the coil matrix or on flux creep in the superconducting filaments are explored with these tests. Measurement results and techniques for controlling the effect based on new laboratory tests and the latest accelerator operation are presented. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  12. Seasonal variation and annual trends of metals and metalloids in the blood of the Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Annett; Lavers, Jennifer L; Orbell, John D; Dann, Peter; Nugegoda, Dayanthi; Scarpaci, Carol

    2016-09-15

    Little Penguins (Eudyptula minor) are high-trophic coastal feeders and are effective indicators of bioavailable pollutants in their foraging zones. Here, we present concentrations of metals and metalloids in blood of 157 Little Penguins, collected over three years and during three distinct seasons (breeding, moulting and non-breeding) at two locations: the urban St Kilda colony and the semi-rural colony at Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia. Penguin metal concentrations were foremostly influenced by location (St Kilda>Phillip Island for non-essential elements) and differed among years and seasons at both locations, reflecting differences in seasonal metal bioaccumulation or seasonal exposure through prey. Mean blood mercury concentrations showed an increasing annual trend and a negative correlation with flipper length at St Kilda. Notably, this study is the first to report on blood metal concentrations during the different stages of moult, showing the mechanism of non-essential metal mobilisation and detoxification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (deaths, 58.8% were OHCDs. From 1995 to 2009, age...... using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school...

  14. Acute hepatitis A, B and C but not D is still prevalent in Mongolia: a time trend analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Oidov Baatarkhuu; Hye Won Lee; Jacob George; Dashchirev Munkh-Orshikh; Baasankhuu Enkhtuvshin; Sosorbaram Ariunaa; Mohammed Eslam; Sang Hoon Ahn; Kwang-Hyub Han; Do Young Kim

    2017-01-01

    Background/Aims Mongolia has one of the highest hepatitis A, C, B and D infection incidences worldwide. We sought to investigate changes in the proportion of acute viral hepatitis types in Mongolia over the last decade. Methods The cohort comprised 546 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis from January 2012 to December 2014 in Ulaanbaatar Hospital, Mongolia. A time trend analysis investigating the change in proportion of acute hepatitis A virus, hepatitis C viru...

  15. Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time-trend analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaye, James A; Melero-Montes, Maria del Mar; Jick, Hershel

    2001-01-01

    Objectives To estimate changes in the risk of autism and assess the relation of autism to the mumps, measles, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. Design Time-trend analysis of data from the UK general practice research database. Setting General practices in the United Kingdom. Participants Children aged 12 years or younger diagnosed with autism between 1988 and 1999, with further analysis of boys aged 2 to 5 years born between 1988 and 1993. Main outcome measures Annual and age-specific incidence for ...

  16. Bacterial community variation in human body habitats across space and time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Elizabeth K; Lauber, Christian L; Hamady, Micah; Fierer, Noah; Gordon, Jeffrey I; Knight, Rob

    2009-12-18

    Elucidating the biogeography of bacterial communities on the human body is critical for establishing healthy baselines from which to detect differences associated with diseases. To obtain an integrated view of the spatial and temporal distribution of the human microbiota, we surveyed bacteria from up to 27 sites in seven to nine healthy adults on four occasions. We found that community composition was determined primarily by body habitat. Within habitats, interpersonal variability was high, whereas individuals exhibited minimal temporal variability. Several skin locations harbored more diverse communities than the gut and mouth, and skin locations differed in their community assembly patterns. These results indicate that our microbiota, although personalized, varies systematically across body habitats and time; such trends may ultimately reveal how microbiome changes cause or prevent disease.

  17. Temporal Trends and Geographic Variation of Lower Extremity Amputation in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease: Results from U.S. Medicare 2000–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, W. Schuyler; Patel, Manesh R.; Dai, David; Subherwal, Sumeet; Stafford, Judith; Calhoun, Sarah; Peterson, Eric D.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives We sought to characterize temporal trends, patient-specific factors and geographic variation associated with amputation in patients with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LE PAD) during the study period. Background Amputation represents the end stage failure for those with LE PAD and little is known about the rates and geographic variation in use of LE amputation. Methods Using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2008, we examined national patterns of LE amputation among patients 65 years or older with PAD. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust regional results for other patient demographic and clinical factors. Results Among 2,730,742 older patients with identified PAD, the overall rate of LE amputation declined from 7,258 per 100,000 PAD patients to 5,790 per 100,000 (p amputation. The adjusted odds ratio of LE amputation per year between 2000 and 2008 was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.95-0.95, pamputation rates decreased significantly among PAD patients. There however remains significant patient and geographic variation in amputation rates across the United States. PMID:23103040

  18. Time trend and clinical pattern of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Serbia, 1993-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešut Dragica P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Increased incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (XPTB is reported worldwide. Serbia is a country in socio-economic transition period with lowmiddle HIV prevalence and intermediate-to-low tuberculosis (TB incidence rate, 100% directly observed treatment (DOT coverage, and mandatory BCG vaccination at birth. The aim of the study was to examine the incidence trend and clinical features of XPTB in Serbia during a 15-year period. Methods. This retrospective observational study included XPTB cases diagnosed in the period between 1st January 1993 and 31st Decembre 2007, according to the reports of the National Referral Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Results. While the overall TB incidence rate showed a slight, not significant decreasing trend (p = 0.535, a significant increase was found for XPTB (y = 1.7996 + 0.089x; R2 = 0.4141; p = 0.01. A total of 2,858 XPTB cases (newly diagnosed and 10% relapses gave an average age specific incidence rate of 2.51/100,000 population (95% confidence interval, SD = 0.6182 with 8.9% annual increase. The male-to-female ratio was 0.54. Lymph nodes were most frequently affected site (48.5% followed by genitourinary (20.5%, pleural (12%, and osseo-arthicular (10.3% TB. Treatment outcome was successful in 88.29% of patients (cured and completed, 3.64% died, 5.18% interrupted, 0.57% displaced, and 2.3% unknown. Conclusion. Increasing trend of XPTB incidence rate may be a result of increased morbidity due to still present risk factors, possible higher detection rate in Serbia and better notification. A high coverage of newborns with BCG vaccination at birth might contribute to a decreased number and rare XPTB cases in children.

  19. PREVALENCE OF CHILD MARRIAGE AMONG BANGLADESHI WOMEN AND TREND OF CHANGE OVER TIME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Md Golam; Mahumud, Rashidul Alam; Saw, Aik

    2016-08-01

    Many Bangladeshi women marry early, and many marry before the legal age of 18 years. This practice has been associated with a higher risk of health and medical morbidities, and also early pregnancy with higher pre- and postnatal complications. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, and factors associated with, child marriage among Bangladeshi women using multiple binary logistic regression analysis of data from the BDHS-2011. Further analysis on the trend of age at first marriage was performed with additional data sets from previous surveys. The mean and median of ages at first marriage of Bangladeshi women in 2011 were 15.69±2.97 and 15.00 years, respectively. A remarkably high percentage (78.2%) married before the age of 18; of these, 5.5% married at a very early age (before 13 years of age). Binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that uneducated women were more likely to be married early (pChild marriage was especially pronounced among women with uneducated husbands, Muslims, those with poor economic backgrounds and those living in rural areas. Further analysis including data from previous BDHS surveys showed that child marriage among Bangladeshi women had a decreasing trend from 1993-94 to 2011. These results show that child marriage was very common in Bangladesh, and closely associated with low level of education and low economic status. The decreasing trend in child marriage indicates an improvement over the past two decades but more effort is needed to further reduce and eventually eliminate the practice.

  20. Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Huang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when a GW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal–GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

  1. Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, C.M.; Zhang, S.D.; Yi, F.; Huang, K.M.; Gan, Q.; Gong, Y. [Wuhan Univ., Hubei (China). School of Electronic Information; Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei (China). Key Lab. of Geospace Environment and Geodesy; State Observatory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhang, Y.H. [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Hydrometeorolgy

    2013-11-01

    Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when aGW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal-GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

  2. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  3. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Perez Ferrer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. METHODS: Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012 of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. RESULTS: Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25 in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80 in 2012, trend p<0.001. Obesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70 among urban women with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63 for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. CONCLUSIONS: The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  4. Chronotype variation drives night-time sentinel-like behaviour in hunter-gatherers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, David R; Crittenden, Alyssa N; Mabulla, Ibrahim A; Mabulla, Audax Z P; Nunn, Charles L

    2017-07-12

    Sleep is essential for survival, yet it also represents a time of extreme vulnerability to predation, hostile conspecifics and environmental dangers. To reduce the risks of sleeping, the sentinel hypothesis proposes that group-living animals share the task of vigilance during sleep, with some individuals sleeping while others are awake. To investigate sentinel-like behaviour in sleeping humans, we investigated activity patterns at night among Hadza hunter-gatherers of Tanzania. Using actigraphy, we discovered that all subjects were simultaneously scored as asleep for only 18 min in total over 20 days of observation, with a median of eight individuals awake throughout the night-time period; thus, one or more individuals was awake (or in light stages of sleep) during 99.8% of sampled epochs between when the first person went to sleep and the last person awoke. We show that this asynchrony in activity levels is produced by chronotype variation, and that chronotype covaries with age. Thus, asynchronous periods of wakefulness provide an opportunity for vigilance when sleeping in groups. We propose that throughout human evolution, sleeping groups composed of mixed age classes provided a form of vigilance. Chronotype variation and human sleep architecture (including nocturnal awakenings) in modern populations may therefore represent a legacy of natural selection acting in the past to reduce the dangers of sleep. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. A search for transit timing variations and orbital decay in WASP-46b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, R.; Jofré, E.; Ferrero, L. V.; Cúneo, V.; Saker, L.; Lovos, F.; Gómez, M.; Mauas, P.

    2018-02-01

    We present 12 new transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-46b obtained with the 1.54-m telescope at Estación Astrofísica de Bosque Alegre (EABA, Argentina) and the 0.40-m Horacio Ghielmetti and 2.15-m Jorge Sahade telescopes at Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito (CASLEO, Argentina). We analyse them together with 37 light curves from the literature to re-determine the physical parameters and search for additional planets via transit timing variations (TTVs). We consider the 31 transits with uncertainties in their mid-transit times (e_T0) 7 × 103 on the tidal quality factor and determine that an additional 6 yr baseline is required to rule out Q⋆ < 105.

  6. Time trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia, 1998–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyave, Ivan; Pardo, Constanza

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate trends in premature cancer mortality in Colombia by educational level in three periods: 1998–2002 with low healthcare insurance coverage, 2003–2007 with rapidly increasing coverage and finally 2008–2012 with almost universal coverage (2008–2012). Setting Colombian population-based, national secondary mortality data. Participants We included all (n=188 091) cancer deaths occurring in the age group 20–64 years between 1998 and 2012, excluding only cases with low levels of quality of registration (n=2902, 1.5%). Primary and secondary outcome measures In this descriptive study, we linked mortality data of ages 20–64 years to census data to obtain age-standardised cancer mortality rates by educational level. Using Poisson regression, we modelled premature mortality by educational level estimating rate ratios (RR), relative index of inequality (RII) and the Slope Index of Inequality (SII). Results Relative measures showed increased risks of dying among the lower educated compared to the highest educated; this tendency was stronger in women (RRprimary 1.49; RRsecondary 1.22, both pColombia are increasing in absolute and relative terms, and are concentrated in young age categories. This trend was not curbed by increases in healthcare insurance coverage. Policymakers should focus on improving equal access to prevention, early detection, diagnostic and treatment facilities. PMID:27048630

  7. Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

    2015-01-01

    What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

  8. Time trend of asthma in children and adolescents in Brazil, 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehrmeister, Fernando César; Menezes, Ana Maria Baptista; Cascaes, Andreia Morales; Martínez-Mesa, Jeovany; Barros, Aluisio J D

    2012-04-01

    To analyze the trends in asthma prevalence in children and adolescents between 1998 and 2008 in Brazil. Data on asthma prevalence from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 National Household Sample Surveys were analyzed. The sample was comprised of 141,402, 144,443 and 134,032 individuals in 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively, and the analysis was adjusted for the sample design. Trends in asthma prevalence were described for sex, Brazilian regions and place of residence of children (zero to nine years of age) and adolescents (ten to 19 years of age). The prevalence of asthma in children was 7.7% in 1998, 8.1% in 2003 and 8.5% in 2008, with an annual increase of 1%. The highest annual increase was observed in the Southeast and North regions (1.4%). Among adolescents, the prevalence of asthma was 4.4% in 1998, 5.0% in 2003 and 5.5% in 2008, with an increase of 2.2% per year. In the Northeast region, the annual increase in the prevalence of asthma was 3.5%. The greatest increases were observed in boys and in residents of rural areas. Although asthma has decreased in some developing countries, the results found in Brazil point to an increase in this disease in children and adolescents between 1998 and 2008, especially in rural areas.

  9. Estimating Trends and Variation of Net Biome Productivity in India for 1980-2012 Using a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahlot, Shilpa; Shu, Shijie; Jain, Atul K.; Baidya Roy, Somnath

    2017-11-01

    In this paper we explore the trend in net biome productivity (NBP) over India for the period 1980-2012 and quantify the impact of different environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), land use and land cover change, climate, and nitrogen deposition on carbon fluxes using a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model. Results show that terrestrial ecosystems of India have been a carbon sink for this period. Driven by a strong CO2 fertilization effect, magnitude of NBP increased from 27.17 TgC/yr in the 1980s to 34.39 TgC/yr in the 1990s but decreased to 23.70 TgC/yr in the 2000s due to change in climate. Adoption of forest conservation, management, and reforestation policies in the past decade has promoted carbon sequestration in the ecosystems, but this effect has been offset by loss of carbon from ecosystems due to rising temperatures and decrease in precipitation.

  10. Time Variations In The Geomagnetic Secular Changes and The Electrical Conductivity of The Lower Mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotanova, N. M.; Bondar, T. N.; Ivanov, V. V.

    The time series of the geomagnetic field at European observatories and the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients are analyzed for studying the spatial- temporal structure, its features and nature of the 1969-70 and 1989 -90 jerks. The autoregression model of describing SV time series and not V-shaped model is proposed. In this case the jerk is interpreted by the field's additional perturbation against the background of its regular changes. Torsional oscillations and local sources are used for explaining the nature of jerks. The spatial field distribution charts during the jerk are mapped out. Comparison with charts of other variations of long duration is made and the conclusion is drawn about their generation by the same sources. The wavelet-transform of the time series has been done. It allowed to single out the peculiarities coinciding with the jerk epochs. The scalelograms calculated from wavelet-analysis gave the possibility to estimate the jerk duration, the characteris tic time of screening the mantle and the electrical conductivity of the lower mantle.

  11. Time-Dependent Variations in Structure of Sheep Wool Irradiated by Electron Beam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Hanzlíková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wool scoured in tap water with no special degreasing and containing a balanced humidity responding to usual laboratory conditions was irradiated by accelerated electron beam in the range of 0–350 kGy dose. Time variations of the wool structure were measured using FTIR, Raman, and EPR spectroscopy. The aim was to determine whether preexposure treatment of the wool, as well as postexposure time, affects the properties of the irradiated wool. Reactive products such as S-sulfonate, cystine monoxide, cystine dioxide, cysteic acid, disulphides, and carboxylates displayed a considerable fluctuation in quantity depending on both the absorbed dose and time. Mutual transformations of S-oxidized products into cysteic acid appeared to be faster than those in dry and degreased wool assuming that the present humidity inside the fibres is decisive as an oxygen source. EPR results indicated a longer lifetime for free radicals induced by lower doses compared with the radicals generated by higher ones. The pattern of the conformational composition of the secondary structure (α-helix, β-sheet, random, and residual conformations also showed a large variability depending on absorbed dose as well as postexposure time. The most stable secondary structure was observed in nonirradiated wool but even this showed a small but observable change after a longer time, too.

  12. Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Frederika J.; Van Vuuren, C. Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; Van Eijsden, Manon

    2015-01-01

    Objective To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Design Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about

  13. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin

    2012-01-01

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time....... The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden....

  14. Association of secular trends in unemployment with suicide in Taiwan, 1959-2007: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, S-S; Sterne, J A C; Huang, W-C; Chuang, H-L; Gunnell, D

    2010-01-01

    Despite the wealth of research investigating the association of unemployment with suicide in the West, few studies have investigated the association in non-Western countries. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between secular trends in unemployment and suicide in Taiwan. Time-series analysis. Overall and age-specific suicide rates (1959-2007) for Taiwanese men and women aged 15 years or above were calculated from national population and mortality statistics. The association of secular trends in unemployment with suicide was investigated graphically and using time-series modelling (Prais-Winsten regression). Rises in unemployment were associated with an increase in male suicide rates, but evidence for an association in females was limited. In the model controlling for changes in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP growth, divorce and female labour force participation, for every 1% rise in unemployment, male suicide rates increased by 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.4-4.8) per 100,000. There is no evidence for a difference in the strength of association between men of different ages. Trends in suicide, particularly for adult males, appear to be influenced by unemployment. The results have implications for suicide prevention, in particular for societies facing acute rises in unemployment during recessions. Copyright 2009 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Suicide in the Philippines: time trend analysis (1974-2005 and literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnell David

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Suicide prevention is given a low priority in many Western Pacific countries due to competing health problems, stigma and poor understanding of its incidence and aetiology. Little is known about the epidemiology of suicide and suicidal behaviour in the Philippines and although its incidence is reported to be low, there is likely to be under-reporting because of its non-acceptance by the Catholic Church and the associated stigma to the family. This study aims to investigate trends in the incidence of suicide in the Philippines, assess possible underreporting and provide information on the methods used and the reasons for suicide. Methods Data for suicide deaths occurring between 1974 and 2005 were obtained from Philippine Health Statistics. Age- and sex-specific trends were examined graphically. Underreporting was investigated by comparing trends in suicides, accidents and deaths of undetermined intent. To provide a fuller picture of suicide in the Philippines, a comprehensive search for published papers, theses and reports on the epidemiology of suicide in the Philippines was undertaken. Results The incidence of suicide in males increased from 0.23 to 3.59 per 100,000 between 1984 and 2005. Similarly, rates rose from 0.12 to 1.09 per 100,000 in females. Amongst females, suicide rates were highest in 15-24 year olds, whilst in males rates were similar in all age groups throughout the study period. The most commonly used methods of suicide were hanging, shooting and organophosphate ingestion. In non-fatal attempts, the most common methods used were ingestion of drugs, specifically isoniazid and paracetamol, or organophosphate ingestion. Family and relationship problems were the most common precipitants. While rates were lower compared to other countries, there is suggestive evidence of underreporting and misclassification to undetermined injury. Recent increases may reflect either true increase or better reporting of suicides

  16. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  17. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    study was to determine if the age at onset of pubertal growth spurt (OGS) and at peak height velocity (PHV) during puberty show secular trends during four decades in a large cohort of school children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Annual measurements of height were available in all children born from 1930...... in pubertal maturation during the study period (year of birth 1930 to 1969). In this period, age at OGS declined statistically significantly by 0.2 and 0.4 years in girls and boys, respectively, whereas age at PHV declined statistically significantly by 0.5 and 0.3 years in girls and boys, respectively....... The decline was non-linear with a levelling off in the children born between 1940 and 1955. The duration of puberty, as defined by the difference between age at OGS and age at PHV, increased slightly in boys, whereas it decreased in girls. CONCLUSION: Our finding of declining age at OGS and at PHV indicates...

  18. Management of 1-Lung Ventilation-Variation and Trends in Clinical Practice: A Report From the Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colquhoun, Douglas A; Naik, Bhiken I; Durieux, Marcel E; Shanks, Amy M; Kheterpal, Sachin; Bender, S Patrick; Blank, Randal S

    2017-11-22

    Lung-protective ventilation (LPV) has been demonstrated to improve clinical outcomes in surgical patients. There are very limited data on the current use of LPV for patients undergoing 1-lung ventilation (1LV) despite evidence that 1LV may be a particularly important setting for its use. In this multicenter study, we report trends in ventilation practice for patients undergoing 1LV. The Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group database was used to identify patients undergoing 1LV. We retrieved and calculated median initial and overall tidal volume (VT) for the cohort and for high-risk subgroups (female sex, obesity [body mass index >30 kg/m], and short stature), percentage of patients receiving positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ≥5 cm H2O, LPV during 1LV (VT ≤ 6 mL/kg predicted body weight [PBW] and PEEP ≥5 cm H2O), and ventilator driving pressure (ΔP; plateau airway pressure - PEEP). Data from 5609 patients across 4 institutions were included in the analysis. Median VT was calculated for each case and since the data were normally distributed, the mean is reported for the entire cohort and subgroups. Mean of median VT during 1LV for the cohort was 6.49 ± 1.82 mL/kg PBW. VT (mL/kg PBW) for high-risk subgroups was significantly higher; 6.86 ± 1.97 for body mass index ≥30 kg/m, 7.05 ± 1.92 for female patients, and 7.33 ± 2.01 for short stature patients. Mean of the median VT declined significantly over the study period (from 6.88 to 5.72; P ventilation, a large proportion of patients undergoing 1LV continue to receive VT PEEP levels outside of recommended thresholds. Moreover, VT remains higher and LPV less common in high-risk subgroups, potentially placing them at elevated risk for iatrogenic lung injury.

  19. Time trends in population-based breast cancer survival in Estonia: analysis by age and stage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baburin, Aleksei; Aareleid, Tiiu; Padrik, Peeter; Valvere, Vahur; Innos, Kaire

    2014-02-01

    Survival from breast cancer (BC) in Estonia has been consistently among the lowest in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine most recent trends in BC survival in Estonia by age and stage. The trends in overall BC incidence and mortality are also shown in the paper. Estonian Cancer Registry data on all cases of BC, diagnosed in women in Estonia during 1995-2007 (n = 7424) and followed up for vital status through 2009, were used to estimate relative survival ratios (RSR). Period hybrid approach was used to obtain the most recent estimates (2005-2009). Stage was classified as localized, local/regional spread or distant. BC incidence continued to rise throughout the study period, but mortality has been in steady decline since 2000. The distribution of patients shifted towards older age and earlier stage at diagnosis. Overall age-standardized five-year RSR increased from 63% in 1995-1999 to 74% in 2005-2009. Younger age groups experienced a more rapid improvement compared to women over 60. Significant survival increase was observed for both localized and locally/regionally spread BC with five-year RSRs reaching 96% and 70% in 2005-2009, respectively; the latest five-year RSR for distant BC was 11%. Survival for T4 tumors was poor and large age difference was seen for locally/regionally spread BC. Considerable improvement in BC survival was observed over the study period. Women under 60 benefited most from both earlier diagnosis and treatment advances of locally/regionally spread cancers. However, the survival gap with more developed countries persists. Further increase in survival, but also decline in BC mortality in Estonia could be achieved by facilitating early diagnosis in all age groups, but particularly among women over 60. Investigations should continue to clarify the underlying mechanisms of the stage-specific survival deficit in Estonia.

  20. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  1. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  2. Mapping Clearances in Tropical Dry Forests Using Breakpoints, Trend, and Seasonal Components from MODIS Time Series: Does Forest Type Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Grogan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical environments present a unique challenge for optical time series analysis, primarily owing to fragmented data availability, persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, little is known of whether the performance of time series change detection is affected by diverse forest types found in tropical dry regions. In this paper, we develop a methodology for mapping forest clearing in Southeast Asia using a study region characterised by heterogeneous forest types. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS time series are decomposed using Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST and breakpoints, trend, and seasonal components are combined in a binomial probability model to distinguish between cleared and stable forest. We found that the addition of seasonality and trend information improves the change model performance compared to using breakpoints alone. We also demonstrate the value of considering forest type in disturbance mapping in comparison to the more common approach that combines all forest types into a single generalised forest class. By taking a generalised forest approach, there is less control over the error distribution in each forest type. Dry-deciduous and evergreen forests are especially sensitive to error imbalances using a generalised forest model i.e., clearances were underestimated in evergreen forest, and overestimated in dry-deciduous forest. This suggests that forest type needs to be considered in time series change mapping, especially in heterogeneous forest regions. Our approach builds towards improving large-area monitoring of forest-diverse regions such as Southeast Asia. The findings of this study should also be transferable across optical sensors and are therefore relevant for the future availability of dense time series for the tropics at higher spatial resolutions.

  3. Trends and Variation in Incidence, Surgical Treatment, and Repeat Surgery of Proximal Humeral Fractures in the Elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, John-Erik; Leung, Brian C.; Spratt, Kevin F.; Koval, Ken J.; Weinstein, James D.; Goodman, David C.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The treatment of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly remains controversial. Options include nonoperative treatment, open reduction with internal fixation (ORIF), and hemiarthroplasty. Locking plate technology has expanded the indications for ORIF for certain fracture types in osteoporotic bone. This study was performed to characterize the incidence, treatment, and revision surgery of proximal humeral fractures according to geographic region both before (1999 to 2000) and after (2004 to 2005) the introduction of locking plates. Methods: We used a 20% sample of Medicare Part-B data and the Medicare denominator file for the years 1998 to 2006. Proximal humeral fractures were identified by Common Procedural Terminology codes for treatment, categorized as nonoperative, ORIF, or hemiarthroplasty. Geographic variation in treatment type was determined with use of 306 hospital referral regions. Odds ratios for revision surgery were calculated by the need for repeat surgery within one year of the index procedure. Rates were adjusted for age, sex, race, and comorbidities. Results: There were 14,774 proximal humeral fractures in the 20% sample from 1999 to 2000 (an estimated total of 73,870 fractures) and 16,138 fractures in the sample from 2004 to 2005 (an estimated total of 80,690 fractures). The overall age, sex, and race-adjusted incidence of proximal humeral fractures was unchanged from 1999 to 2005 (2.47 vs. 2.48 per 1000 Medicare beneficiaries; p = 0.992). However, the absolute rate of surgically managed proximal humeral fractures rose 3.2 percentage points from 12.5% to 15.7%, a relative increase of 25.6% (p fractures treated with ORIF was 28.5% (p fractures treated with hemiarthroplasty increased 19.6% (p proximal humeral fractures in the elderly did not change from 1999 to 2005, the rate of surgical treatment increased significantly. The marked regional variation in the rates of surgical treatment highlights the need for better consensus regarding

  4. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Variation in timing of ossification affects inferred heterochrony of cranial bones in Lissamphibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheil, Christopher A; Jorgensen, Michael; Tulenko, Frank; Harrington, Sean

    2014-09-01

    The evolutionary origin of Lissamphibia likely involved heterochrony, as demonstrated by the biphasic lifestyles of most extant orders, differences between Anura (with tadpole-to-froglet metamorphosis) and Urodela (which lack strongly defined metamorphosis), and the appearance of direct development among separate lineages of frogs. Patterns in the timing of appearance of skeletal elements (i.e., ossification sequence data) represent a possible source of information for understanding the origin of Lissamphibia, and with the advent of analytical methods to directly optimize these data onto known phylogenies, there has been a renewed interest in assessing the role of changes in these developmental events. However, little attention has been given to the potential impact of variation in ossification sequence data--this is particularly surprising given that different criteria for collecting these data have been employed. Herein, new and previously published ossification data are compiled and all pairs of data for same-species comparisons are selected. Analyses are run to assess the impact of using data that were collected by different methodologies: (1) wild- versus lab-raised animals; (2) different criteria for recognizing timing of ossification; and (3) randomly selecting ossification sequences for species from which multiple studies have been published, but for which the data were collected by different criteria. Parsimov-based genetic inference is utilized to map ossification sequence data onto an existing phylogeny to reconstruct ancestral sequences of ossification and infer instances of heterochrony. All analyses succeeded in optimizing sequence data on internal nodes and instances of heterochrony were identified. However, among all analyses little congruence was found in reconstructed ancestral sequences or among inferred instances of heterochrony. These results indicate a high degree of variation in timing of ossification, and suggest a cautionary note about use

  6. Variation in ultrasonic frequency and time as pre-treatments to air-drying of carrot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Ekow Abano

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Vegetable drying is an alternative method to curb post harvest decay of vegetables and a process to produce dried vegetables, which can be directly consumed or used as ingredients for the preparation of soups, stews, baby foods, cakes, puddings, and many other foods. In this study, the effect of ultrasound frequency and sonication time as pre-treatment prior to air drying at 70°C at an air velocity of 0.5 m/s, on carrot drying kinetics, flavour, colour, and non-enzymatic browning was investigated using a 3-level factorial response surface method. The result showed that an increase in sonication frequency and time did not significantly increase moisture diffusivity but in comparison with the control, water diffusivity increased after ultrasound application and the overall drying time was reduced. Application of the ultrasound pre-treatment in distilled water resulted in water gain and sugar loss, indicating that the ultrasonic pre-treatment can be an important step to produce low sugar content dried products. The brightness and redness to yellowness values of the ultrasonically pre-treated dried carrots were better than those without ultrasound application. In comparison with the flavour of the control, the ultrasound pre-treated samples recorded higher flavour response signals, indicating that the application of ultrasound improved the flavour of the dried carrot. The variation in sonication frequency and time did not significantly affect the non-enzymatic browning index of the dried products but were better than the control.

  7. The Influence of Variation in Time and HCl Concentration to the Glucose Produced from Kepok Banana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widodo M, Rohman; Noviyanto, Denny; RM, Faisal

    2016-01-01

    Kepok banana (Musa paradisiaca) is a plant that has many advantagesfrom its fruit, stems, leaves, flowers and cob. However, we just tend to take benefit from the fruit. We grow and harvest the fruit without taking advantages from other parts. So they would be a waste or detrimental to animal nest if not used. The idea to take the benefit from the banana crop yields, especially cob is rarely explored. This study is an introduction to the use of banana weevil especially from the glucose it contains. This study uses current methods of hydrolysis using HCl as a catalyst with the concentration variation of 0.4 N, 0.6 N and 0.8 N and hydrolysis times variation of 20 minutes, 25 minutes and 30 minutes. The stages in the hydrolysis include preparation of materials, the process of hydrolysis and analysis of test results using Fehling and titrate with standard glucose solution. HCl is used as a catalyst because it is cheaper than the enzyme that has the same function. NaOH 60% is used for neutralizing the pH of the filtrate result of hydrolysis. From the results of analysis, known thatthe biggest yield of glucose is at concentration 0.8 N and at 30 minutes reaction, it contains 6.25 gram glucose / 20 gram dry sampel, and the convertion is 27.22% at 20 gram dry sampel.

  8. Recent trends in annual snowline variations in the northern wet outer tropics: case studies from southern Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Wang, Shanshan; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; de Souza, Sergio Florêncio; Simões, Jefferson Cardia

    2017-07-01

    This paper describes the changes in the annual maximum snowlines of a selected set of mountain glaciers at the southern end of the Cordillera Blanca between 1984 and 2015 using satellite images. Furthermore, we analysed the existing glacier records in the Cordillera Blanca since the last glacial maximum to understand the evolution of glaciers in this region over a few centuries. There was a rise in the snowline altitude of glaciers in this region since the late 1990s with a few small glacier advances. Historical to the present El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) records were also analysed to understand whether there was a teleconnection between the glacier fluctuations in the region and the phase changes of ENSO and PDO. We also assessed the variations in three important climatic parameters that influence the glacier retreat—temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity—over a few decades. We calculated the anomalies as well as the seasonal changes in these variables since the mid-twentieth century. There was an increase in temperature during this period, and the decrease in precipitation was not so prominent compared with the temperature rise. There was an exceptionally higher increase in relative humidity since the early 2000s, which is relatively higher than that expected due to the observed rate of warming, and this increase in humidity is believed to be the reason behind the unprecedented rise in the snowline altitudes since the beginning of the twenty-first century.

  9. A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvestro Daniele

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. Results We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae and Lupinus (Fabaceae. In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. Conclusions Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

  10. Is the Second Time the Charm? Investigating Trends in Online Re-enrollment, Retention and Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyse C. Hachey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Online education is becoming an increasingly important component of higher education. The Sloan Foundation 2010 Survey of Online Learning reports that more than 30% of all students take at least one online course during their college career. Because of this, attention is now turning to the quality of student outcomes that this instructional method provides. However, there is a huge gap in empirical investigations devoted to the link between technology and performance indicators such as grade performance, re-enrollment and course completion (Nora & Plazas Snyder, 2008. This study found that prior online course experience is strongly correlated with future online course success. In fact, knowing a student’s prior online course success explains 13.2% of the variation in retention and 24.8% of the variation in online success in our sample, a large effect size. Students who have not successfully completed any previous online courses have very low success and retention rates, and students who have successfully completed all prior online courses have fairly high success and retention rates. Therefore, this study suggests that additional support services need to be provided to previously unsuccessful online learners, while students who succeed online should be encouraged to enroll in additional online courses in order to increase retention and success rates in online learning.

  11. Time Variations of Observed Hα Line Profiles and Precipitation Depths of Nonthermal Electrons in a Solar Flare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falewicz, Robert; Radziszewski, Krzysztof; Rudawy, Paweł; Berlicki, Arkadiusz

    2017-10-01

    We compare time variations of the Hα and X-ray emissions observed during the pre-impulsive and impulsive phases of the C1.1-class solar flare on 2013 June 21 with those of plasma parameters and synthesized X-ray emission from a 1D hydrodynamic numerical model of the flare. The numerical model was calculated assuming that the external energy is delivered to the flaring loop by nonthermal electrons (NTEs). The Hα spectra and images were obtained using the Multi-channel Subtractive Double Pass spectrograph with a time resolution of 50 ms. The X-ray fluxes and spectra were recorded by RHESSI. Pre-flare geometric and thermodynamic parameters of the model and the delivered energy were estimated using RHESSI data. The time variations of the X-ray light curves in various energy bands and those of the Hα intensities and line profiles were well correlated. The timescales of the observed variations agree with the calculated variations of the plasma parameters in the flaring loop footpoints, reflecting the time variations of the vertical extent of the energy deposition layer. Our result shows that the fast time variations of the Hα emission of the flaring kernels can be explained by momentary changes of the deposited energy flux and the variations of the penetration depths of the NTEs.

  12. Particulate pollution in urban Chongqing of southwest China: Historical trends of variation, chemical characteristics and source apportionment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuan; Xie, Shao-Dong; Luo, Bin; Zhai, Chong-Zhi

    2017-04-15

    Chongqing, the largest megacity in southwest China, faces serious aerosol pollution but lacks information on particle characteristics and its sources. Official data released by Chongqing Environmental Protection Bureau demonstrated that urban PM10 concentrations decreased remarkably from 150μgm(-3) in 2000 to 90μgm(-3) in 2012. However, only several peer-reviewed studies paid attention to local fine particle (PM2.5) pollution. In the study, PM2.5 samples were obtained and subjected to chemical analysis in an urban site of the city during 2012 to 2013. The annual mean PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in urban Chongqing were 103.9±52.5 and 75.4±42.2μgm(-3), respectively. PM2.5 showed a distinct seasonality of high concentration in winter and similar levels in other seasons. The average OC/EC (organic carbon/element carbon) ratio was 3.7 with more high-OC/EC ratio sources contribution in autumn and winter. The varying sources and formation mechanisms resulted in SO4(2-) and NH4(+) peaks in both summer and winter, whereas high nitrate concentration was only observed in winter. In the average mass closure, PM2.5 was composed of 23.0% SO4(2-), 11.7% NO3(-), 10.9% NH4(+), 30.8% OM (organic matter), 5.2% EC, 8.2% mineral dust, 0.6% TEO (trace elements), 1.0% Cl(-) and 1.1% K(+), while exhibiting large seasonal variability. Using positive matrix factorization (PMF), six sources were apportioned in PM2.5: secondary inorganic aerosols, coal combustion, other industrial pollution, soil dust, vehicular emission, and metallurgical industry. The annual mean contribution of above sources to PM2.5 was 37.5, 22.0, 17.5, 11.0, 9.8 and 2.2%, respectively. Coal combustion was identified by As tracer and dominated the primary sources of PM2.5, while the two different industrial sources were characterized by Cr and Mo, Co, Ni, and Se, respectively. The study is of great importance in characterizing the historical trends, current chemical characteristics and sources of fine particles in

  13. Variation in Patients' Travel Times among Imaging Examination Types at a Large Academic Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Liang, Yu; Duszak, Richard; Recht, Michael P

    2017-08-01

    Patients' willingness to travel farther distances for certain imaging services may reflect their perceptions of the degree of differentiation of such services. We compare patients' travel times for a range of imaging examinations performed across a large academic health system. We searched the NYU Langone Medical Center Enterprise Data Warehouse to identify 442,990 adult outpatient imaging examinations performed over a recent 3.5-year period. Geocoding software was used to estimate typical driving times from patients' residences to imaging facilities. Variation in travel times was assessed among examination types. The mean expected travel time was 29.2 ± 20.6 minutes, but this varied significantly (p travel times were shortest for ultrasound (26.8 ± 18.9) and longest for positron emission tomography-computed tomography (31.9 ± 21.5). For magnetic resonance imaging, travel times were shortest for musculoskeletal extremity (26.4 ± 19.2) and spine (28.6 ± 21.0) examinations and longest for prostate (35.9 ± 25.6) and breast (32.4 ± 22.3) examinations. For computed tomography, travel times were shortest for a range of screening examinations [colonography (25.5 ± 20.8), coronary artery calcium scoring (26.1 ± 19.2), and lung cancer screening (26.4 ± 14.9)] and longest for angiography (32.0 ± 22.6). For ultrasound, travel times were shortest for aortic aneurysm screening (22.3 ± 18.4) and longest for breast (30.1 ± 19.2) examinations. Overall, men (29.9 ± 21.6) had longer (p travel times than women (27.8 ± 20.3); this difference persisted for each modality individually (p ≤ 0.006). Patients' willingness to travel longer times for certain imaging examination types (particularly breast and prostate imaging) supports the role of specialized services in combating potential commoditization of imaging services. Disparities in travel times by gender warrant further investigation. Copyright

  14. Analysis of rainfall trend in Ethiopia | Admassu | Ethiopian Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural production in Ethiopia is predominantly rain fed. Variation of rainfa ll in space and time affects the agricultural production system in the country. This needs a close study on rainfall variation. Rainfall variation, called trend, has been assessed for total annual, Kiremt (June-September) and Belg (February-May) ...

  15. Opioid Prescribing Among Cancer and Non-cancer Patients: Time Trend Analysis in the Elderly Using Administrative Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbera, Lisa; Sutradhar, Rinku; Chu, Anna; Seow, Hsien; Howell, Doris; Earle, Craig C; O'Brien, Mary Ann; Dudgeon, Deb; Atzema, Clare; Husain, Amna; Liu, Ying; DeAngelis, Carlo

    2017-10-01

    In 2007, Cancer Care Ontario introduced a provincial symptom screening program, which included pain, for cancer patients. Over this same time, opioid prescribing has been increasingly scrutinized among non-cancer patients. The study purpose was to see if opioid prescribing changed among older adults after 2007 in the context of changing opioid regulations, and whether effects were different among patients with a cancer history. Ontario residents aged ≥65 years were identified from 2004 to 2013. Subjects were annually stratified into three groups: no cancer history, cancer diagnosis >5 years ago, and cancer diagnosis ≤5 years ago. We evaluated time trends by year for: 1) opioid prescription rate, comparing trends before and after 2007 and 2) mean daily opioid dose. Between 2004 and 2013, opioid prescribing was relatively constant for cancer patients with no observed change in trends after 2007. For non-cancer patients, there was a 2% relative annual increase during this period. Significant changes were seen for opioid sub-classes (e.g., decreasing use of long-acting oxycodone). These were similar for those with or without a history of cancer. Among all groups, changes in the mean daily dose over time were similar in all drug classes. Overall prescribing rates for cancer patients aged ≥65 years remain unchanged over time, in spite of the introduction of a provincial symptom screening program. Decreasing prescription rates in some drug sub-classes were observed. The potential impact of these changes on the quality of symptom control for cancer patients needs further investigation. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Uncovering Gene Regulatory Networks from Time-Series Microarray Data with Variational Bayesian Structural Expectation Maximization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Yufei

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate in this paper reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks from time-series microarray data. We apply dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs for modeling cell cycle regulations. In developing a network inference algorithm, we focus on soft solutions that can provide a posteriori probability (APP of network topology. In particular, we propose a variational Bayesian structural expectation maximization algorithm that can learn the posterior distribution of the network model parameters and topology jointly. We also show how the obtained APPs of the network topology can be used in a Bayesian data integration strategy to integrate two different microarray data sets. The proposed VBSEM algorithm has been tested on yeast cell cycle data sets. To evaluate the confidence of the inferred networks, we apply a moving block bootstrap method. The inferred network is validated by comparing it to the KEGG pathway map.

  17. Revisiting the returns-volume relationship: Time variation, alternative measures and the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Steve; Watson, Duncan

    2017-03-01

    Following its introduction in the seminal study of Osborne (1959), a voluminous literature has emerged examining the returns-volume relationship for financial assets. The present paper revisits this relationship in an examination of the FTSE100 which extends the existing literature in two ways. First, alternative daily measures of the FTSE100 index are used to create differing returns and absolute returns series to employ in an examination of returns-volume causality. Second, rolling regression analysis is utilised to explore potential time variation in the returns-volume relationship. The findings obtained depict a hitherto unconsidered complexity in this relationship with the type of returns series considered and financial crisis found to be significant underlying factors. The implications of the newly derived results for both the understanding of the nature of the returns-volume relationship and the development of theories in connection to it are discussed.

  18. Menstrual variation of breast volume and T{sub 2} relaxation times in cyclical mastalgia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussain, Zainab [Department of Medical Imaging, University of Liverpool, Johnstone Building, Brownlow Hill, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 3GB (United Kingdom); Magnetic Resonance and Image Analysis Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Johnstone Building, Brownlow Hill, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 3GB (United Kingdom)], E-mail: zay@liverpool.ac.uk; Brooks, Jonathan [Magnetic Resonance and Image Analysis Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Johnstone Building, Brownlow Hill, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 3GB (United Kingdom); Department of Human Anatomy and Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Percy, Dave [Centre for Operational Research and Applied Statistics, University of Salford, Salford, Greater Manchester M5 4WT (United Kingdom)

    2008-02-15

    Purpose: Hormonal activity causes breast volume to change during the menstrual cycle. One possible cause of this volume change is thought to be due to water retention or oedema within the tissues. We used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to study the variation in breast volume and {sup 1}H Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) to measure T{sub 2} relaxation times which are known to increase with increasing tissue water content. We hypothesised that an increase in breast volume will elevate T{sub 2} relaxation due to the presence of an increased water content within the breast. T{sub 2} Relaxation time and volume were studied in fifteen control subjects and in a cohort of eight patients with cyclical mastalgia in order to determine whether changes in breast volume and T{sub 2} relaxation times differed in controls and patients during menses, ovulation and premenses. Method: Breast volume was determined by the Cavalieri method in combination with point counting techniques on MR images and T{sub 2} relaxation times of the water and fat in a voxel of breast tissue were obtained using {sup 1}H Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS). Results: Statistical analysis (ANOVA) demonstrated highly significant differences in breast volume between the three stages of the cycle (p < 0.0005) with breast volume being greatest premenstrually. Patients did not exhibit an increase in volume premenstrually, significantly above controls. T{sub 2} of fat or water did not depend on stage of cycle. T-tests demonstrated no significant differences in T{sub 2} of water or fat between patient and control groups. The average T{sub 2} relaxation time of water was lowest in the patient and control groups during ovulation and highest in the patient group during premenses. Conclusion: We have performed the first combined volumetric and spectroscopic study of women with cyclical mastalgia and demonstrated that the global changes in volumes and T{sub 2} were not significantly different from normal

  19. Prezygotic barriers to hybridization in marine broadcast spawners: reproductive timing and mating system variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla A Monteiro

    Full Text Available Sympatric assemblages of congeners with incomplete reproductive barriers offer the opportunity to study the roles that ecological and non-ecological factors play in reproductive isolation. While interspecific asynchrony in gamete release and gametic incompatibility are known prezygotic barriers to hybridization, the role of mating system variation has been emphasized in plants. Reproductive isolation between the sibling brown algal species Fucus spiralis, Fucus guiryi (selfing hermaphrodite and Fucus vesiculosus (dioecious was studied because they form hybrids in parapatry in the rocky intertidal zone, maintain species integrity over a broad geographic range, and have contrasting mating systems. We compared reproductive synchrony (spawning overlap between the three species at several temporal scales (yearly/seasonal, semilunar/tidal, and hourly during single tides. Interspecific patterns of egg release were coincident at seasonal (single peak in spring to early summer to semilunar timescales. Synthesis of available data indicated that spawning is controlled by semidiurnal tidal and daily light-dark cues, and not directly by semilunar cycles. Importantly, interspecific shifts in timing detected at the hourly scale during single tides were consistent with a partial ecological prezygotic hybridization barrier. The species displayed patterns of gamete release consistent with a power law distribution, indicating a high degree of reproductive synchrony, while the hypothesis of weaker selective constraints for synchrony in selfing versus outcrossing species was supported by observed spawning in hermaphrodites over a broader range of tidal phase than in outcrossers. Synchronous gamete release is critical to the success of external fertilization, while high-energy intertidal environments may offer only limited windows of reproductive opportunity. Within these windows, however, subtle variations in reproductive timing have evolved with the potential to

  20. Prezygotic Barriers to Hybridization in Marine Broadcast Spawners: Reproductive Timing and Mating System Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Carla A.; Serrão, Ester A.; Pearson, Gareth A.

    2012-01-01

    Sympatric assemblages of congeners with incomplete reproductive barriers offer the opportunity to study the roles that ecological and non-ecological factors play in reproductive isolation. While interspecific asynchrony in gamete release and gametic incompatibility are known prezygotic barriers to hybridization, the role of mating system variation has been emphasized in plants. Reproductive isolation between the sibling brown algal species Fucus spiralis, Fucus guiryi (selfing hermaphrodite) and Fucus vesiculosus (dioecious) was studied because they form hybrids in parapatry in the rocky intertidal zone, maintain species integrity over a broad geographic range, and have contrasting mating systems. We compared reproductive synchrony (spawning overlap) between the three species at several temporal scales (yearly/seasonal, semilunar/tidal, and hourly during single tides). Interspecific patterns of egg release were coincident at seasonal (single peak in spring to early summer) to semilunar timescales. Synthesis of available data indicated that spawning is controlled by semidiurnal tidal and daily light-dark cues, and not directly by semilunar cycles. Importantly, interspecific shifts in timing detected at the hourly scale during single tides were consistent with a partial ecological prezygotic hybridization barrier. The species displayed patterns of gamete release consistent with a power law distribution, indicating a high degree of reproductive synchrony, while the hypothesis of weaker selective constraints for synchrony in selfing versus outcrossing species was supported by observed spawning in hermaphrodites over a broader range of tidal phase than in outcrossers. Synchronous gamete release is critical to the success of external fertilization, while high-energy intertidal environments may offer only limited windows of reproductive opportunity. Within these windows, however, subtle variations in reproductive timing have evolved with the potential to form ecological

  1. Prezygotic barriers to hybridization in marine broadcast spawners: reproductive timing and mating system variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Carla A; Serrão, Ester A; Pearson, Gareth A

    2012-01-01

    Sympatric assemblages of congeners with incomplete reproductive barriers offer the opportunity to study the roles that ecological and non-ecological factors play in reproductive isolation. While interspecific asynchrony in gamete release and gametic incompatibility are known prezygotic barriers to hybridization, the role of mating system variation has been emphasized in plants. Reproductive isolation between the sibling brown algal species Fucus spiralis, Fucus guiryi (selfing hermaphrodite) and Fucus vesiculosus (dioecious) was studied because they form hybrids in parapatry in the rocky intertidal zone, maintain species integrity over a broad geographic range, and have contrasting mating systems. We compared reproductive synchrony (spawning overlap) between the three species at several temporal scales (yearly/seasonal, semilunar/tidal, and hourly during single tides). Interspecific patterns of egg release were coincident at seasonal (single peak in spring to early summer) to semilunar timescales. Synthesis of available data indicated that spawning is controlled by semidiurnal tidal and daily light-dark cues, and not directly by semilunar cycles. Importantly, interspecific shifts in timing detected at the hourly scale during single tides were consistent with a partial ecological prezygotic hybridization barrier. The species displayed patterns of gamete release consistent with a power law distribution, indicating a high degree of reproductive synchrony, while the hypothesis of weaker selective constraints for synchrony in selfing versus outcrossing species was supported by observed spawning in hermaphrodites over a broader range of tidal phase than in outcrossers. Synchronous gamete release is critical to the success of external fertilization, while high-energy intertidal environments may offer only limited windows of reproductive opportunity. Within these windows, however, subtle variations in reproductive timing have evolved with the potential to form ecological

  2. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968 – 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chuen-Seng

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From 1968 to 2002, Singapore experienced an almost three-fold increase in breast cancer incidence. This increase appeared to be different across the three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malays and Indians. This paper used age-period-cohort (APC modelling, to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on breast cancer incidence for each ethnic group. Methods This study included all breast cancer cases (n = 15,269 in the three ethnic groups, reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968 to 2002 between the ages 25 to 79. Age-specific fertility rates from the Department of Statistics were used to explore the role of fertility. Results In the 1970s, Indian women had the highest age-standardized breast cancer but by the mid-1980s the highest rates were seen among the Chinese. Remarkable differences were seen in the age-specific incidence rates by ethnic groups. After age 49, the incidence rates for the Chinese and Malays leveled off whereas it continued to rise in the Indians. While our analyses provided some evidence that an age-drift model described the trend seen in the Indians, age-period-cohort model and age-cohort model had the best fit for the Chinese and Malays aged 25 to 79 respectively. Overall, Chinese and Malay women born in later cohorts were at increased risk of developing breast cancer relative to their counterparts in the earlier cohorts. The three ethnic groups experienced similar changes in their fertility in the 1970s, which likely explained much of the increase in their breast cancer incidence but not the ethnic differences. There was a stronger inverse association between total fertility rate and pre-menopausal breast cancer incidence in the Chinese and Malays than the Indians. Conclusion The observed dissimilarity among ethnic groups suggests ethnic differences in exposure or response to certain risk factors. It is likely that longer and subtler differences in

  3. Cancer screening uptake: association with individual characteristics, geographic distribution, and time trends in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrozzi, Giuliano; Sampaolo, Letizia; Bolognesi, Lara; Sardonini, Laura; Bertozzi, Nicoletta; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Zappa, Marco; Baldissera, Sandro; Campostrini, Stefano; Ferrante, Gianluigi; Masocco, Maria; Minardi, Valentina; D'Argenzio, Angelo; Moghadam, Pirous Fateh; Quarchioni, Elisa; Ramigni, Mauro; Trinito, Massimo Oddone; Salmaso, Stefania

    2015-01-01

    In Italy, organized screening programmes invite the vast majority of the population for cervical and breast cancer, and about one half of the population for colorectal cancer. Programme activity and quality are closely monitored. Nevertheless, there is a vast spontaneous activity, both public and private, for which information on service and coverage is missing. To estimate actual population coverage for the three types of screening the extent of spontaneous screening needs to be known. PASSI is a national telephone-interview surveillance system that continuously collects information about behavioural health risk factors and the diffusion of preventive health interventions. From 2010 to 2013, more than 151,000 18- to 69-year-olds were interviewed. During 2013, 136 out of 147 Italian local health authorities participated in the survey. Information about screening includes: test uptake (Pap smear, HPV, mammography, faecal occult blood test, colonoscopy), date of the last test, provider of the last test (whether paid or for free, proxy of the organized screening programme), reason for not participating in screening, and screening promotion/recommendation received. Individual information on socio-economic characteristics is available. Seventy-seven percent of the 25-64 year-old women interviewed said they had undergone a Pap smear or HPV test in the three years before the interview, 40%within the screening programme, 37% spontaneously and paying. Seventy percent of the 50-69 year-old women interviewed reported having had a mammography in the two years before the interview, 51% within the screening programme, 19% spontaneously and paying. Thirty-eight percent of the 50-69 year olds interviewed reported having undergone colorectal screening in the two years before the interview, 31% within the screening programme, 7% spontaneously and paying. All three screening programmes showed a decreasing North-South trend in coverage. From 2010 to 2013, coverage increased for all

  4. Space versus time variation in the population dynamics of three co-occurring perennial herbs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongejans, E.; Kroon, de H.

    2005-01-01

    1 Many plant species are currently restricted to small and isolated populations as a result of habitat destruction and fragmentation. Lack of sufficient data often leads to spatial variation being substituted for temporal variation in models to evaluate management options, but variation in

  5. Batch leachate treatment using stirred electrocoagulation reactor with variation of residence time and stirring rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitorus, I. S.; Astono, W.; Iswanto, B.

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to reduce pollutant levels of the leachate by electrocoagulation method using a stirred electrocoagulation reactor as the electrochemical water treatment. The release of active coagulants as metallic ions took place in the anode, while in the cathode, the electrolysis reaction in the form of hydrogen gas dischargeoccurred. The source of wastewater is Waste Water Treatment Plant inlet III of Bantar Gebang, Bekasi. Some parameters were analyzed in this research, i.e., Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), NH3, NO3 -, NO2 -, N-total, and organic substances as well as the microorganism growth before and after electrocoagulation, with variations of detention time (seconds) of 10, 20, 120, 600 and rapid mixing conditions (rpm) of 60, 100 and 200. The results show that the greater the rapid mixing speed and the detention time of electrolysis, the higher the removal of contaminants in liquid waste. The optimum condition of electrocoagulation was encountered at 200 rpm rapid mixing with 600 seconds of processing time. The removal efficiencies of electrocoagulation method for each parameter are TSS of 46.80%, BOD5 of 71.33%, COD of 73.77%, Pb of 62.5%,and NH3-N of 57.92%,whereas the pH value has been increased from 8.03 to 8.95. The electrocoagulation method can reduce levels of pollutants, complying with the environmental standards.

  6. Socioeconomic Disparity in Global Burden of Cataract: An Analysis for 2013 With Time Trends Since 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Lixia; Wang, Jingyi; Xu, Peifang; Ye, Xin; Ye, Juan

    2017-08-01

    To assess socioeconomic disparity in global burden of cataract, by using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). International, comparative burden-of-disease study. Published data on national age-standardized DALY rates caused by cataract and human development index (HDI) between 1990 and 2013 were obtained. The association between age-standardized DALY rates and HDI in 2013 was analyzed. The health-related Gini coefficients and the concentration indexes were calculated to explore the trends in between-country inequality in cataract burden from 1990 to 2013. Multiple comparison revealed that lower-HDI countries had higher age-standardized DALY rates caused by cataract. Age-standardized DALY rates were inversely associated with HDI (β = -0.522, P cataract was accompanied by widening inequality, with cataract burden being more concentrated in countries with lower socioeconomic status. The findings highlight the need to provide more cataract services for developing countries, to combat global vision loss caused by cataract. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Variation in Soil-Catena Characteristics of Moraines with Time and Climate, South Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkeland, Peter W.

    1994-07-01

    Soil catenas on three moraines in each of two areas with different climate were studied to determine (a) downcatena soil differentiation with climate and time and (b) their usefulness in estimating the relative ages of the underlying deposits. In the dry area (mean annual precipitation (MAP), ca. 0.5 m) all soils have A/Bw/C profiles formed in loess/till. Their similarity in morphology and in most chemical characteristics with catena position and age suggests that the low MAP does not result in much redistribution of water, elements, or sediment downcatena. This similarity also suggests ages close to each other and correlation with the Otiran Glaciation (oxygen-isotope stages 2 and 4). In the wet area (MAP ca. 3 m) the soils also formed in loess/till and with time (a) soil morphology progresses from A/Bw/C to A/E/B/C, (h) reduced properties intensify, especially in the downcatena profiles, (c) citrate-bicarbonate-dithionite-extractable Fe displays accumulation in the youngest catena followed by loss in the older catenas, and (d) downcatena trends in total chemical data display marked losses of the more mobile elements. These data demonstrate that although catena development is rapid in a wet climate, the downcatena contrast can be muted with time due to a change from processes dominated by oxidation to those dominated by reduction. Soil catena properties in the wet area are sufficiently different to not refute age estimations suggested by Suggate (1990): youngest moraine, oxygen-isotope stage 2; intermediate moraine, isotope stage 4; and oldest moraine, isotope stage 10. An unresolved problem in both areas is the possibility of soil erosion to foul soil-age relations.

  8. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  9. Temporal variation and trends of inorganic nutrients in the coastal upwelling of the NW Spain (Atlantic Galician rías)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doval, M. D.; López, A.; Madriñán, M.

    2016-02-01

    The temporal variability of inorganic nutrients (nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, phosphate and silicate) in five coastal upwelling Galician rías (Ría de Vigo, Ría de Pontevedra, Ría de Arousa, Ría de Muros and Ría de Ares-Betanzos) was assessed by considering biweekly values at 10 oceanographic stations for the decade 2002-2011. The long trends (1993-2011) of biweekly and annual average series for one station (mouth of Ría de Arousa, A0) were compared with decadal trends. A marked seasonal variability in all surface inorganic nutrients was observed. The average of the ten annual cycles (2002-2011) of each variable was calculated in order to obtain the average seasonal cycles. Maximum surface values occurred from the end of October to the end of February (8-24 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 5-22 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.5-1.8 μmol L- 1 phosphate). Minimum surface values (0.9-3.0 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 0.6-2.5 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.15-0.6 μmol L- 1 phosphate) detected from the beginning of May to the end of September. The highest nutrient concentrations (> 35%) recorded in the inner stations (V3, P3, A3, M2 and L3), as compared to the outer stations (V5, P4, A0, M5 and L1), indicated a more estuarine behaviour of these areas. Trends of the deseasonalised nutrient data were highly dependent on factors as length of the series, the initial year and the time integration period considered. The results found for these trends should be taken with caution due to the change in the sign of the slopes and the moderate accuracy of the models. Considering the variables whose trends did not change sign, ammonium and silicate showed a slightly positive trend for the biweekly-averaged series in A0 station during the periods 2002-2011 and 1993-2011.

  10. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  11. Variations in automatically recorded rumination time as explained by variations in intake of dietary fractions and milk production, and between-cow variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byskov, Malene Vesterager; Nadeau, E.; Johansson, B. E. O.

    2015-01-01

    contained 761, 290, and 203 daily recordings of RT, milk yield, milk components, DMI, and intake of dietary fractions recorded on 29, 26, and 24 Holstein and Swedish Red cows from trials 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The dietary fractions included forage neutral detergent fiber (NDF), concentrate NDF, crude...... selected and simultaneously checked for multicollinearity between the dietary components; in step 2, a multivariate model, including the effect of repeated measurements, the main effect of the selected dietary fractions from step 1, random effects of cow(trial) and trial, and information on breed, days...... of different dietary fractions, the relationship between RT in minutes per kilogram of dry matter intake (DMI) and milk production, and to examine the variation in RT within and between mid-lactating dairy cows. Data from 3 production trials were used in which a total of 27 different diets were fed. The data...

  12. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  13. Time trends in physical activity of adult users of the Brazilian National Health System: 2010-2014. Longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruna Camilo Turi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: In this longitudinal study, we aimed to describe time trends of physical activity (PA in different domains from 2010 to 2014 among users of the Brazilian National Health System, taking into account the effects of sex, age and economic status (ES. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal study conducted in five primary care units in Bauru (SP, Brazil. METHODS: The sample was composed of 620 men and women who were interviewed in 2010, 2012 and 2014. The same group of researchers conducted the interviews, using the questionnaire developed by Baecke et al. Scores for occupational, exercise/sport, leisure-time/transportation and overall PA were considered in this longitudinal survey. Time trends of PA over the four years of follow-up were assessed according to sex, age and ES. RESULTS: We found that after four years of follow-up, the reduction in overall PA (-13.6%; 95% confidence interval, CI = -11.9 to -15.3 was statistically significant. Additionally, declines in the occupational domain and exercise/sports participation were affected by age, while the reduction in overall PA was affected by sex, age and ES. CONCLUSIONS: Overall PA decreased significantly from 2010 to 2014 among these outpatients of the Brazilian National Health System, and age and male sex were important determinants of PA in its different domains.

  14. Time Trends and Payer Differences in Lengths of Initial Hospitalization for Preterm Infants, Arkansas 2004–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ounpraseuth, Songthip; Bronstein, Janet; Gauss, Clinton H.; Wingate, Martha S.; Hall, Richard W.; Nugent, Richard R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine the time trend in length of stay (LOS) and explore potential differences in neonatal LOS by insurance type for preterm infants in Arkansas between 2004 and 2010. Study Design There were 18,712 preterm infants included in our analyses. Accelerated failure time (AFT) models were used to model neonatal LOS as a function of insurance type and discharge year while adjusting for key maternal and infant characteristics, and complication/anomaly indicators. Results Prior to adjusting for the complication/anomaly indicators, the LOS for preterm infants delivered to mothers in the Medicaid group was 3.2% shorter than those in the private payer group. Furthermore, each subsequent year was associated with a 1.6% increase in the expected LOS. However, after accounting for complications and anomalies, insurance coverage differences in neonatal LOS were not statistically significant while the trend in LOS persisted at a 0.59% increase for each succeeding year. Conclusion All of the apparent differences in LOS by insurance type and more than half of the apparent increase in LOS over time are accounted for by higher rates of complications among privately insured preterm infants and increasing rates of complications for all surviving preterm infants between 2004 and 2010. PMID:24792767

  15. Trends and seasonal variations in the occurrence of Salmonella in pigs, pork and humans in Denmark, 1995-2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Andersen, J. S.

    2001-01-01

    by seasonal decomposition. The association between the incidence in humans and the prevalence of Salmonella in pigs and pork, and prevailing weather conditions, were analysed by using a general linear (glm) and a general additive model (gam). Explanatory variables were lagged to account for time elapsed...... a very similar course. The variables that were both biologically meaningful and statistically significant in both regression models were the prevalence in pork sampled 4 to 5 weeks before case registration, the seroprevalence, measured as the average prevalence of week 15 to 35 before case registration...

  16. Time trend of neurocysticercosis in children with seizures in a tertiary hospital of western Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Kalipatnam Seshagiri; Adhikari, Sudhir; Gauchan, Eva; Sathian, Brijesh; B K, Ganesh; Basnet, Sahisnuta; Tiwari, Prabhat Kumar; Bahadur, Namraj; Mishra, Rajnish

    2017-05-01

    Neurocysticercosis is a common cause of seizure disorders in children of Western Nepal. The clinical presentation is variable. The incidence varies depending on the food habits and ethnicity of the population. The present study was undertaken with the objective of studying the mode of presentation, radiological findings and to determine the recent trend of the disease in children of Western Nepal. Records from the Department of Pediatrics, Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal of children aged 0-17 years admitted from 2003 to 2015 and with the discharge diagnosis of seizure and neurocysticercosis (NCC) were reviewed. The diagnosis was primarily based on clinical features, neurological involvement and CT and MRI studies. Seizures due to other CNS pathologies were excluded. Patients with NCC were treated with Albendazole15mg/kg/day for 28 days with supportive treatments for seizures and raised intracranial pressure. Patients were followed up for one year after the completion of the treatment. There were 1355 cases of seizure disorders, out of which 229 (16.90%) were NCC. There were 99 (43.23%) in the age group 6-10 years followed by 91 (41.09%) in the age group of 11-15 years. Seizures were the most common presenting symptom in 88.65%, followed by raised ICP in 9.61%. Neuropsychiatric changes were noted in 38 cases (16.59%). CT scan findings revealed single lesion in 78.16% and multiple lesions in 21.83%. Poisson regression analysis showed statistically significant decline of year-wise incidence of NCC cases (p<0.05) from 2003 to 2015. The decline in the incidence of NCC in recent years is most probably attributed to improved hygiene with the construction of household toilets to avoid open defecation and biannual deworming with Albendazole as a part of School Health and Nutrition Project.

  17. Time trend of neurocysticercosis in children with seizures in a tertiary hospital of western Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalipatnam Seshagiri Rao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Neurocysticercosis is a common cause of seizure disorders in children of Western Nepal. The clinical presentation is variable. The incidence varies depending on the food habits and ethnicity of the population. The present study was undertaken with the objective of studying the mode of presentation, radiological findings and to determine the recent trend of the disease in children of Western Nepal.Records from the Department of Pediatrics, Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal of children aged 0-17 years admitted from 2003 to 2015 and with the discharge diagnosis of seizure and neurocysticercosis (NCC were reviewed. The diagnosis was primarily based on clinical features, neurological involvement and CT and MRI studies. Seizures due to other CNS pathologies were excluded. Patients with NCC were treated with Albendazole15mg/kg/day for 28 days with supportive treatments for seizures and raised intracranial pressure. Patients were followed up for one year after the completion of the treatment.There were 1355 cases of seizure disorders, out of which 229 (16.90% were NCC. There were 99 (43.23% in the age group 6-10 years followed by 91 (41.09% in the age group of 11-15 years. Seizures were the most common presenting symptom in 88.65%, followed by raised ICP in 9.61%. Neuropsychiatric changes were noted in 38 cases (16.59%. CT scan findings revealed single lesion in 78.16% and multiple lesions in 21.83%. Poisson regression analysis showed statistically significant decline of year-wise incidence of NCC cases (p<0.05 from 2003 to 2015.The decline in the incidence of NCC in recent years is most probably attributed to improved hygiene with the construction of household toilets to avoid open defecation and biannual deworming with Albendazole as a part of School Health and Nutrition Project.

  18. Acute traumatic coagulopathy in a critically injured pediatric population: Definition, trend over time, and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, Christine M; Kutcher, Matthew; Nasr, Isam; McKenna, Christine; Billiar, Timothy; Neal, Matthew; Sperry, Jason; Gaines, Barbara A

    2016-07-01

    While our understanding of acute traumatic coagulopathy (ATC) in adults is advancing, the pediatric literature on ATC is limited. Children have a unique injury profile and physiologic response to trauma; however, the impact of this phenomenon on ATC has not been fully elucidated. We performed a retrospective review of our trauma registry from 2005 to 2014. Level 1 trauma patients age 0 year to 17 years requiring admission to the intensive care unit were included. Variables included admission vital signs and laboratory studies, product transfusion, injuries, and mortality. Youden index was used to determine optimum cutoff point for admission international normalized ratio (INR) as a predictor of mortality. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine independent predictors of mortality adjusting for hypotension, hypothermia, acidosis, injury severity, hemorrhage, and head injury. χ tests were performed evaluating for association between mortality and 24-hour INR as well as between transfusion and INR correction. A total of 776 patients were analyzed: 29.2% (n = 227) had an admission INR of 1.3 or greater, and 13.3% (n = 103) had an admission INR of 1.5 or greater. Youden index demonstrated optimum cutoff at INR of 1.3 or greater to distinguish survivors and nonsurvivors. Overall mortality rate was 11.1% (n = 86). Elevated INR was independently associated with mortality (odds ratio, 3.77; p population; however, product transfusion did not influence the INR trend or clinical outcome. Further research is warranted to evaluate potential upstream mediators of ATC and targets for intervention in pediatric trauma patients. Prognostic and epidemiologic study, level III.

  19. Time trends of viral meningitis among young adults in Israel: 1978-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Hagai; Mimouni, Daniel; Zurel-Farber, Anat; Zahavi, Alon; Molina-Hazan, Vered; Bar-Zeev, Yael; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

    2014-07-01

    Viral meningitis (VM) is a medical condition of public health concern, as it is a common sporadic and epidemic illness. However, there is limited data on the epidemiology of VM. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term and seasonal trends of VM in a young adult military population. VM is a obligatory notifiable disease in the Israel Defense Forces. For the present study, the archives of the Army Health Branch were reviewed for all cases of VM from January 1, 1978 to December 31, 2012, and the annual, monthly, and seasonal rates were calculated. The annual incidence over the 35-year period showed a high peak every 3-5 years followed by a quiescent period of 2-3 years, reaching as high as 58.4 per 100,000 in 1980 and as low as 3.0 per 100,000 in 2005. This cyclic pattern has diminished over the last decade, reflected by a decline in mean incidence (10.46 per 100,000 in 2003-2012 compared to 19.79 per 100,000 in 1978-2002). Average monthly rates ranged from 1.0 cases per 100,000 soldiers in January/February to 2.2 per 100,000 in July/August. The difference in average rates between winter (1.2 cases per 100,000) and summer (1.9 cases per 100,000) was statistically significant (p viral causes of meningitis may spare patients unnecessary treatment while prompting the introduction of public health interventions and control measures, especially in crowded settings.

  20. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  1. Time trends of cancer incidence in Setif, Algeria, 1986-2010: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi Cherif, Mokhtar; Serraino, Diego; Mahnane, Abbes; Laouamri, Slimane; Zaidi, Zoubida; Boukharouba, Hafida; Cherka, Dahbia; Rakeb, Manel; Kara, Lamia; Ayat, Asma; Birri, Silvia; Virdone, Saverio; De Paoli, Paolo; Bidoli, Ettore

    2014-08-30

    Incidence rates of various cancers are increasing in Arab countries and are expected to reach those of industrialized ones in few decades. This paper aimed to describe the incidence rates of most common cancers--and/or of those cancer preventable through modifiable behaviors--recorded in the province of Setif, Algeria from 1986 through 2010. Cancer diagnoses for the 1986-2010 period were provided by the population-based Cancer Registry of Setif, disentangled by site, morphology, age (quinquennia), sex, and calendar period. The corresponding population was obtained from the Algerian Institute of Statistics. Age-standardized rates (world population) (ASR-WR) were computed by calendar period (five quinquennias from 1986-1990 to 2006-2010), while annual percent changes (APCs) were computed for the period 1996-2010. During the 2006-2010 period, ASR-WR for all cancer sites were 106.4/100,000 in men and 110.3 in women. The four leading cancers were: lung (18.0%); colon-rectum (9.6%); bladder (9.1%); and prostate (6.5%) in men; breast (36.4%); colon-rectum (8.5%); cervix uteri (6.0%); and thyroid (6.0%) in women. Between 1996-2010, overall cancer incidence increased statistically significantly (p cancers in women. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed for most common cancers both in men (lung:+1.8%, colon-rectum:+5.4%, prostate:+4.3%, liver:+8.9%, and bladder:+5.9%) and women (breast:+8.2%, colon-rectum:+4.5%, lung:+10.0%, liver:+5.4%, thyroid:+5.3%, and larynx:+13.8%). International recommendations against cancer must be strongly promoted in Setif after taking into account epidemiological transition, lifestyle, and environmental changes.

  2. Documenting and determining distributions, trends, and relations in truck times at international border crossing facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-20

    Documenting the times trucks incur when crossing an international border facility is valuable both to the private freight industry and to gateway facility operators and planners. : Members of the project team previously developed and implemented an a...

  3. Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor time series estimated using GNSS, ERA-Interim, and synoptic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshawaf, Fadwa; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens

    2017-04-01

    Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) have efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research although they may not be sufficiently long. In this work, we compare the trend estimated from GNSS time series with that estimated from European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements.We aim at evaluating climate evolution in Central Europe by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: 1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, 2) inferred from ERA-Interim data, and 3) determined based on daily surface measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other variables are available from surface meteorological stations or received from ERA-Interim. The PWV trend component estimated from GNSS data strongly correlates (>70%) with that estimated from the other data sets. The linear trend is estimated by straight line fitting over 30 years of seasonally-adjusted PWV time series obtained using the meteorological measurements. The results show a positive trend in the PWV time series with an increase of 0.2-0.7 mm/decade with a mean standard deviations of 0.016 mm/decade. In this paper, we present the results at three GNSS stations. The temporal increment of the PWV correlates with the temporal increase in the temperature levels.

  4. Leisure time physical activity in the Framingham Offspring Study. Description, seasonal variation, and risk factor correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, A L; Keller, J B; Wilson, P W; Castelli, W P

    1989-01-01

    Self-reported leisure time physical activity was analyzed for 1,598 men and 1,762 women aged 20-69 years in the Framingham Offspring Cycle 2 exam in 1979-1983. Walking for pleasure was generally the most common physical activity for both sexes throughout the year. Substantial seasonal variation was noted for the most common activities: gardening, carpentry, lawn mowing, golf, and running for men; and gardening, swimming, health club exercise, dancing, and bicycling for women. Both sexes expended more kilocalories in physical activities in summer than in winter (p less than 0.001). Frequency of participation in activities sufficient to induce perspiration was associated with frequency of participation in at least one hour of conditioning (greater than or equal to 7.5 kilocal/minute) activities per week (p less than 0.001). Based on age-adjusted mean levels, higher high density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower heart rate, lower body mass index and fewer cigarettes smoked per day were consistently observed across four quartiles of increasing physical activity levels (p less than 0.01). Men who participated in at least one hour of conditioning activities per week had significantly different mean levels for these four risk factors than men who reported less than one hour of such activities per week (p less than 0.001). Results substantiate previous reports of an inverse relation between physical activity levels and cardiovascular risk, and suggest seasonal variation in activity levels should be considered in future studies which explore the relation between physical activity and cardiovascular disease.

  5. Reminiscence functions over time: consistency of self functions and variation of prosocial functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, Norm; King, David B; Cappeliez, Philippe

    2017-03-01

    The current study examines the temporal stability of the tripartite model of reminiscence functions in which eight separate reminiscence functions map onto three second-order factors which contribute significantly to measurement of an overarching reminiscence latent construct. We collected online responses from 411 adults 50+ years of age. Confirmatory factor analytic models were computed at three points of data collection over 16 months. Invariance analyses were next undertaken to simultaneously compare the measurement properties to assess within-person stability of reminiscence functions over time. The tripartite structure of reminiscence functions was replicated at each point of data collection. As hypothesised, self-positive and self-negative functions are consistent across points of data collection, whereas prosocial functions vary over time. The temporal stability of the self functions may be attributed to enduring characteristics of the individual such as personality traits and life attitudes, as well as their solitary nature. Previous research indicates that consistency of self-positive reminiscence functions has ensuing benefits for physical health and psychological well-being; the opposite is true for self-negative functions. The temporal variation of prosocial functions may be due to the varying availability of others to share memories and their responsiveness to the emotional context.

  6. Genetic variation in LIN28B is associated with the timing of puberty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Ken K; Elks, Cathy E; Li, Shengxu; Zhao, Jing Hua; Luan, Jian'an; Andersen, Lars B; Bingham, Sheila A; Brage, Soren; Smith, George Davey; Ekelund, Ulf; Gillson, Christopher J; Glaser, Beate; Golding, Jean; Hardy, Rebecca; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Kuh, Diana; Luben, Robert; Marcus, Michele; McGeehin, Michael A; Ness, Andrew R; Northstone, Kate; Ring, Susan M; Rubin, Carol; Sims, Matthew A; Song, Kijoung; Strachan, David P; Vollenweider, Peter; Waeber, Gerard; Waterworth, Dawn M; Wong, Andrew; Deloukas, Panagiotis; Barroso, Inês; Mooser, Vincent; Loos, Ruth J; Wareham, Nicholas J

    2009-06-01

    The timing of puberty is highly variable. We carried out a genome-wide association study for age at menarche in 4,714 women and report an association in LIN28B on chromosome 6 (rs314276, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.33, P = 1.5 × 10(-8)). In independent replication studies in 16,373 women, each major allele was associated with 0.12 years earlier menarche (95% CI = 0.08-0.16; P = 2.8 × 10(-10); combined P = 3.6 × 10(-16)). This allele was also associated with earlier breast development in girls (P = 0.001; N = 4,271); earlier voice breaking (P = 0.006, N = 1,026) and more advanced pubic hair development in boys (P = 0.01; N = 4,588); a faster tempo of height growth in girls (P = 0.00008; N = 4,271) and boys (P = 0.03; N = 4,588); and shorter adult height in women (P = 3.6 × 10(-7); N = 17,274) and men (P = 0.006; N = 9,840) in keeping with earlier growth cessation. These studies identify variation in LIN28B, a potent and specific regulator of microRNA processing, as the first genetic determinant regulating the timing of human pubertal growth and development.

  7. Excitation of Earth Rotation Variations "Observed" by Time-Variable Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Ben F.; Cox, C. M.

    2005-01-01

    Time variable gravity measurements have been made over the past two decades using the space geodetic technique of satellite laser ranging, and more recently by the GRACE satellite mission with improved spatial resolutions. The degree-2 harmonic components of the time-variable gravity contain important information about the Earth s length-of-day and polar motion excitation functions, in a way independent to the traditional "direct" Earth rotation measurements made by, for example, the very-long-baseline interferometry and GPS. In particular, the (degree=2, order= 1) components give the mass term of the polar motion excitation; the (2,O) component, under certain mass conservation conditions, gives the mass term of the length-of-day excitation. Combining these with yet another independent source of angular momentum estimation calculated from global geophysical fluid models (for example the atmospheric angular momentum, in both mass and motion terms), in principle can lead to new insights into the dynamics, particularly the role or the lack thereof of the cores, in the excitation processes of the Earth rotation variations.

  8. Phthalates and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid in human amniotic fluid: temporal trends and timing of amniocentesis in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Morten Søndergaard; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Toft, Gunnar; Hougaard, David M; Bonde, Jens Peter; Cohen, Arieh; Thulstrup, Ane Marie; Ivell, Richard; Anand-Ivell, Ravinder; Lindh, Christian H; Jönsson, Bo A G

    2012-06-01

    Measures of prenatal environmental exposures are important, and amniotic fluid levels may directly reflect fetal exposures during hypothesized windows of vulnerability. We aimed to detect various phthalate metabolites and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) in human amniotic fluid, to study temporal exposure trends, and to estimate potential associations with gestational week of amniocentesis and maternal age and parity at amniocentesis. We studied 300 randomly selected second-trimester amniotic fluid samples from a Danish pregnancy-screening biobank covering 1980 through 1996. We used only samples from male offspring pregnancies. We assayed the environmental pollutants by liquid chromatography/triple quadrupole mass spectrometry and analyzed data using generalized linear regression models. We detected the di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) metabolite mono(2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl) phthalate (5cx-MEPP) at a median concentration of 0.27 ng/mL [interquartile range (IQR): 0.20-0.37 ng/mL], the diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) metabolite mono(4-methyl-7-carboxyheptyl) phthalate (7cx-MMeHP) at 0.07 ng/mL (IQR: 0.05-0.11 ng/mL), and PFOS at 1.1 ng/mL (IQR: 0.66-1.60 ng/mL). An increase of 1 calendar year was associated with 3.5% lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.8%, -2.1%] 5cx-MEPP levels and with 7.1% higher (95% CI: 5.3%, 9.0%) 7cx-MMeHP levels. For each later gestational week of amniocentesis, 5cx-MEPP was 9.9% higher (95% CI: 4.8%, 15.2%), 7cx-MMeHP was 8.6% higher (95: CI: 2.7%, 14.9%), and PFOS was 9.4% higher (95: CI: 3.3%, 15.9%). We observed no associations with maternal age or parity. Measured metabolite levels appeared to parallel decreasing DEHP exposure and increasing DiNP exposure during the study period. The environmental pollutant levels were positively associated with later gestational age at amniocentesis during pregnancy weeks 12-22.

  9. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  10. Clasp/SJ Observation of Time Variations of Lyman-Alpha Emissions in a Solar Active Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, S.; Kubo, M.; Katsukawa, Y.; Kano, R.; Narukage, N.; Ishikawa, R.; Bando, T.; Winebarger, A.; Kobayashi, K.; Trujillo Bueno, J.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Chromospheric Lyman-alpha SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP) is a sounding rocket experiment launched on September 3, 2015 to investigate the solar chromosphere, and the slit-jaw (SJ) optical system took Lya images with the high time cadence of 0.6 s. By the CLASP/SJ observation, many time variations in the solar chromosphere with the time scale of <1 minute were discovered (see the poster by Kubo et al., Pa-13). We focused on an active region and investigated the short (<30 s) time variations and relation to the coronal structure observed by SDO/AIA. We compared the Ly(alpha) time variations at footpoints of coronal magnetic fields observed by AIA 211 Å (approx.2 MK) and AIA 171 Å (0.6 MK), and non-loop regions. As the result, we found the <30 s Ly(alpha) time variations had more in the footpoint regions. On the other hand, the <30 s time variations had no dependency on the temperature of the loop.

  11. Secular trends and seasonality in first-time hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Thomas; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Johnsen, Søren Paaske

    2004-01-01

    changes in seasonality. Methods: The study was based on 17,989 patients hospitalized with first-time acute myocardial infarction identified in the Hospital Discharge Registry of the County of North Jutland, Denmark, from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 1999. The seasonality of acute myocardial infarction...... of these seasonal patterns remained stable throughout the study period despite the decline in hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction. Conclusion> Hospitalizations for first-time acute myocardial infarction decreased from 1983 to 1999, but the seasonal pattern remained stable over time....... was estimated using a Poisson regression model. Results: The incidence rate decreased by 3.2 % (95% confidence interval: 2.7-3.3%) annually. Hospitalizations followed different seasonal patterns depending on age, but not on gender. In the

  12. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  13. Using the Relaxation Test to Study Variation in the Time-Dependent Property of Rock and the Consequent Effect on Time-Dependent Roof Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yuting; Mishra, Brijes; Gao, Danqing

    2017-09-01

    Field observations have demonstrated that roof failure occurs spatially in a mine from the time of excavation. It is suspected that time-dependent deformation propagates failure in the rock mass. In this paper, the relaxation test is used to study variation in the time-dependent property of rock and the consequent effect on time-dependent roof failure. This investigation uses a numerical simulation in 3DEC. The relaxation equation is developed from Burgers model. Variations in the time-dependent property in the post-failure region show negligible variation and, therefore, are averaged to represent the time-dependent property of the failed rock. Finally, these parameters are used in the numerical simulation of underground excavations. Two groups of parameters are used to represent the time-dependent property for pre- and post-failure conditions. FISH functions within 3DEC are used to monitor the state of each zone. Once failure is detected, the parameters are changed to the values corresponding to failed rock. The results show that the new relaxation model accurately predicts the time-dependent propagation of the failure zone. The variation of the time-dependent parameters significantly affects the rock mass behavior and roof convergence.

  14. Incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage : a systematic review with emphasis on region, age, gender and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Rooij, N. K.; Linn, F. H. H.; van der Plas, J. A.; Algra, A.; Rinkel, G. J. E.

    2007-01-01

    Background and aim: To update our 1996 review on the incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and assess the relation of incidence with region, age, gender and time period. Methods: We searched for studies on the incidence of SAH published until October 2005. The overall incidences with

  15. [Time trends in sex differences in adolescents' health behaviour from 2001 to 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucksch, J; Finne, E; Glücks, S; Kolip, P

    2012-07-01

    Health behaviours are influenced by gender-specific conceptions and norms of the society. These conceptions and norms are changing over time. The aim of this analysis is to describe gender differences in health behaviour of adolescents and to interpret these gender differences in terms of theories of social construction.We used the national German data of the Health-Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) studies conducted in the years 2001/02, 2005/06 und 2009/10 with respect to the following health behaviours: tobacco use, binge drinking, diet, fruit and vegetable consumption, daily breakfast and physical activity. We describe the difference in frequencies between girls and boys and used a series of logistic regressions to test the significance of the gender difference in health behaviours with survey year as the predictor.There is only a small difference -between girls and boys with respect to tobacco use and binge drinking. For binge drinking girls nearly converge with the figures of boys. Relatively stable gender differences over time are existing for diet, nutrition and physical activity.From a theoretical gender perspective it might be possible that with respect to risky behaviours like tobacco use and alcohol consumption a clear gender specific connotation has changed over time. In other words risk behaviours become less important in presenting oneself as masculine. A gender sensible development of preventive interventions should consider the changes over time of gender-related -social constructions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  16. Tipping the Scales: National Trends of Declining Social Studies Instructional Time in Elementary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heafner, Tina L.; Fitchett, Paul G.

    2012-01-01

    By means of data from the most comprehensive source of teacher data in the nation, Schools and Public School Teacher Staffing Survey (SASS), we designed a follow-up quantitative study to test the effects of two decades of national policy mandates on instructional time allotments for core academic subjects. We used data from the SASS data from…

  17. Social Stratification Patterns in Adolescents' Active Sports Participation Behaviour: A Time Trend Analysis 1969-1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheerder, Jeroen; Vanreusel, Bart; Taks, Marijke; Renson, Roland

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine (a) whether adolescents' leisure-time sports participation is socially stratified, and (b) whether possible stratification patterns have changed over the last decades. The population for the study consisted of four random samples of high school boys and girls in Flanders who were exposed to a standardized…

  18. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  19. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  20. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years...

  1. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in incidence rates of cancers of gastro-intestinal tract in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiderpass Elisabete

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The magnitude of socioeconomic differences in health varies between societies, and over time within a given society. We studied the association between social class and incidence of cancers of the gastro-intestinal tract over time in a large cohort in Finland. Methods We studied social class variation among 45–69 year-old Finns during 1971–95 in incidence of cancers of the gastro-intestinal tract by means of a computerized record linkage of the Finnish Cancer Registry and the 1970 Population Census, which included social class data. Results There were 2.3 million individuals in the cohort under follow-up, with 1622 cases of cancer of the esophagus, 8069 stomach (non-cardia, 1116 cardia, 408 small intestine, 6361 colon, 5274 rectum, 1616 liver, 1756 gallbladder, and 5084 pancreas during 1971–1995. Cancers of the esophagus, stomach, cardia, gallbladder and pancreas were most common among persons belonging to a low social class. Cancers of the small intestine in males only, colon in both genders, and rectum in females were most common in the higher social classes. Incidence of stomach cancer decreased and incidence of colon cancer increased over time in both genders in all social classes, and the large differences between social classes remained unchanged over time. Incidence rates of cardia cancer did not change substantially over time. Conclusion There is a large variation in incidence of cancer of the gastrointestinal tract by social class in Finland. Although much of the observed social class differences probably could be explained by known etiological factors such as diet, physical exercise, alcohol consumption, smoking and exogenous hormone use, part of the variation is apparently attributable to largely unknown factors.

  2. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  3. Time trends in alcohol intake in early pregnancy and official recommendations in Denmark, 1998-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kesmodel, Ulrik S; Petersen, Gitte L; Henriksen, Tine B

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In 1999, Danish health authorities modified their recommendation to pregnant women, condoning some alcohol intake. In 2007, the recommendation was changed to one of alcohol abstention. We aimed to assess changes in average alcohol intake (drinks/week) and alcohol binge drinking...... Hospital, Denmark, between September 1998 and June 2013 were invited to participate. During the study period, 68 395 pregnant women filled in a self-administered questionnaire at gestational week 11 (median). From 1998, questions on binge drinking included data on the number of binge episodes (≥5 drinks...... on a single occasion), and the timing (gestational week) of these episodes. Additional questions on binge drinking defined as ≥3 drinks on a single occasion were asked separately from 2000. A question assessed the average number of alcohol-containing drinks per week the woman consumed currently at the time...

  4. A Continuous-Time Model of Topic Co-occurrence Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Pachinko Allocation model (PAM), which captures arbitrary topic correlations with a directed acyclic graph (DAG), and (2) the Topics over Time model (TOT...recently inrtoduced the Pachinko Allocation model (PAM), an exten- sion to LDA that assumes a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to capture arbitrary topic...co-occurrences, not the changes in the word distribution of each topic. The Model In this section, we first present the Pachinko allocation model (PAM

  5. Time trends and latitude dependence of uveal and cutaneous malignant melanoma induced by solar radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moan, J.; Setlow, R.; Cicarma, E.; Porojnicu, A. C.; Grant, W. B.; Juzeniene, A.

    2010-01-01

    In order to evaluate the role of solar radiation in uveal melanoma etiology, the time and latitude dependency of the incidence rates of this melanoma type were studied in comparison with those of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). Norway and several other countries with Caucasian populations were included. There is a marked north - south gradient of the incidence rates of CMM in Norway, with three times higher rates in the south than in the north. No such gradient is found for uveal melanoma. Similar findings have been published for CMM in other Caucasian populations, with the exception of Europe as a whole. In most populations the ratios of uveal melanoma incidence rates to those of CMM tend to decrease with increasing CMM rates. This is also true for Europe, in spite of the fact that in this region there is an inverse latitude gradient of CMM, with higher rates in the north than in the south. In Norway the incidence rates of CMM have increased until about 1990 but have been constant, or even decreased (for young people) after that time, indicating constant or decreasing sun exposure. The uveal melanoma rates have been increasing after 1990. In most other populations the incidence rates of CMM have been increasing until recently while those of uveal melanoma have been decreasing. These data generally support the assumption that uveal melanomas are not generated by ultraviolet (UV) radiation and that solar UV, via its role in vitamin D photosynthesis, may have a protective effect.

  6. Regional Changes in Charcoal-Burning Suicide Rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: A Time Trend Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Chen, Ying-Yeh; Yip, Paul S. F.; Lee, Won Jin; Hagihara, Akihito; Gunnell, David

    2014-01-01

    Background Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995–2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries. Methods and Findings We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996–2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997–1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998–2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999–2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999–2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006–2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did

  7. Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

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    Shu-Sen Chang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%, but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999, followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001, Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001, Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003, and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008. No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females, but not in Japan (for males, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group

  8. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model

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    Sachin S Mumbare

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India′s National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  9. Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

    2014-10-01

    India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  10. Time trends, environmental factors and genetic basis of semen traits collected in Holstein bulls under commercial conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karoui, Sofiene; Díaz, Clara; Serrano, Magdalena; Cue, Roger; Celorrio, Idoia; Carabaño, María J

    2011-03-01

    The fact that results of artificial insemination (AI) are declining in highly selected dairy cattle populations has added a renewed interest to the evaluation of male fertility. Data from 42,348 ejaculates collected from 1990 to 2007 on 502 Holstein bulls were analysed in a Bayesian framework to provide estimates of the evolution of semen traits routinely collected in AI centres throughout the last decades of intense selection for production traits and estimate genetic parameters. The traits under consideration were volume (VOL), concentration (CONC), number of spermatozoa per ejaculate (NESPZ), mass motility score (MM), individual motility (IM), and post-thawing motility (PTM). The environmental factors studied were year-season and week of collection, which account for changes in environmental and technical conditions along time, age at collection, ejaculate order, time from previous collection (TPC) and time between collection and freezing (TCF) (only for PTM). Bull's inbreeding coefficient (Fi), bull's permanent environmental and additive genetic effects were also considered. The use of reduced models was evaluated using the Bayes factor. For all the systematic effects tested, strong or very strong evidence in favour of including the effect in the model was obtained, except for Fi for motility traits and TCF for PTM. No systematic time trends for environment or bull effects were observed, except for PTM, which showed an increasing environmental trend, associated with improvements in freezing-thawing protocols. Heritability estimates were moderate (0.16-0.22), except for IM, which presented a low value (0.07). Genetic correlations among motilities and between motilities and CONC were large and positive [0.38-0.87], VOL showed a negative correlation with CONC (-0.13) but with ample HPD 95%. The magnitude of heritabilities would allow an efficient selection if required and grants the use of these traits as indicators of the sperm viability component of bulls

  11. Densities and eccentricities of 139 Kepler planets from transit time variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadden, Sam; Lithwick, Yoram [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States)

    2014-05-20

    We extract densities and eccentricities of 139 sub-Jovian planets by analyzing transit time variations (TTVs) obtained by the Kepler mission through Quarter 12. We partially circumvent the degeneracies that plague TTV inversion with the help of an analytical formula for the TTV. From the observed TTV phases, we find that most of these planets have eccentricities of the order of a few percent. More precisely, the rms eccentricity is 0.018{sub −0.004}{sup +0.005}, and planets smaller than 2.5 R {sub ⊕} are around twice as eccentric as those bigger than 2.5 R {sub ⊕}. We also find a best-fit density-radius relationship ρ ≈ 3 g cm{sup –3} × (R/3 R {sub ⊕}){sup –2.3} for the 56 planets that likely have small eccentricity and hence small statistical correction to their masses. Many planets larger than 2.5 R {sub ⊕} are less dense than water, implying that their radii are largely set by a massive hydrogen atmosphere.

  12. Adaptive Real-Time Estimation on Road Disturbances Properties Considering Load Variation via Vehicle Vertical Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuhui Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle dynamics are directly dependent on tire-road contact forces and torques which are themselves dependent on the wheels’ load and tire-road friction characteristics. An acquisi