Noctilucent clouds observed from the UK and Denmark – trends and variations over 43 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kirkwood

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The combined UK/Denmark record of noctilucent cloud (NLC observations over the period 1964–2006 is analysed. This data set is based on visual observations by professional and voluntary observers, with around 40 observers each year contributing reports. Evidence is found for a significantly longer NLC season, a greater frequency of bright NLC, and a decreased sensitivity to 5-day planetary waves, from 1973–1982, compared to the rest of the time interval. This coincides with a period when the length of the summer season in the stratosphere was also longer (defined by zonal winds at 60° N, 30 hPa. At NLC heights, lower mean temperatures, and/or higher water vapour and/or smaller planetary wave amplitudes could explain these results. The time series of number of NLC nights each year shows a quasi-decadal variation with good anti-correlation with the 10.7 cm solar flux, with a lag of 13–17 months. Using multi-parameter linear fitting, it is found that the solar-cycle and the length of summer in the stratosphere together can explain ~40% of the year-to-year variation in NLC numbers. However, no statistically confidant long-term trend in moderate or bright NLC is found. For NLC displays of moderate or greater intensity, the multi-parameter fit gives a trend of ~0.08 nights (0.35% per year with a statistical probability of 28% that it is zero, or as high as 0.16 nights (0.7% per year. There is a significant increasing trend in the number of reports of faint or very faint NLC which is inconsistent with other observations and may be due changes in observing practices.

Time trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ylönen, Outi; Jyrkkiö, Sirkku; Pukkala, Eero; Syvänen, Kari; Boström, Peter J

2018-02-20

To describe the trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries utilising national cancer registries, NORDCAN (NORDCAN project/database presents the incidence, mortality, prevalence and survival from >50 cancers in the Nordic countries) and NOCCA (Nordic Occupational Cancer) databases. We obtained the incidence data of testicular cancer for 5-year periods from 1960-1964 to 2000-2014 and for 5-year age-groups from the NORDCAN database. Morphological data on incident cases of seminoma and non-seminoma were obtained from national cancer registries. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were calculated per 100 000 person-years (World Standard). Regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual change in the incidence of testicular cancer in each of the Nordic countries. The risk of testicular cancer in different professions was described based on NOCCA information and expressed as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs). During 2010-2014 the ASR for testicular cancer varied from 11.3 in Norway to 5.8 in Finland. Until 1998, the incidence was highest in Denmark. There has not been an increase in Denmark and Iceland since the 1990s, whilst the incidence is still strongly increasing in Norway, Sweden, and Finland. There were no remarkable changes in the ratio of seminoma and non-seminoma incidences during the past 50 years. There was no increase in the incidences in children and those of pension age. The highest significant excess risks of testicular seminoma were found in physicians (SIR 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.99), artistic workers (SIR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-1.99) and religious workers etc. (SIR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14-1.56). The lowest SIRs of testicular seminoma were seen amongst cooks and stewards (SIR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29-0.98), and forestry workers (SIR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.86). The occupational category of administrators was the only one with a significantly elevated SIR for testicular non-seminoma (SIR 1.21, 95

Towards Uniform Accelerometry Analysis: A Standardization Methodology to Minimize Measurement Bias Due to Systematic Accelerometer Wear-Time Variation

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Tarun R. Katapally, Nazeem Muhajarine

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Accelerometers are predominantly used to objectively measure the entire range of activity intensities – sedentary behaviour (SED, light physical activity (LPA and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA. However, studies consistently report results without accounting for systematic accelerometer wear-time variation (within and between participants, jeopardizing the validity of these results. This study describes the development of a standardization methodology to understand and minimize measurement bias due to wear-time variation. Accelerometry is generally conducted over seven consecutive days, with participants' data being commonly considered 'valid' only if wear-time is at least 10 hours/day. However, even within ‘valid’ data, there could be systematic wear-time variation. To explore this variation, accelerometer data of Smart Cities, Healthy Kids study (www.smartcitieshealthykids.com were analyzed descriptively and with repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA. Subsequently, a standardization method was developed, where case-specific observed wear-time is controlled to an analyst specified time period. Next, case-specific accelerometer data are interpolated to this controlled wear-time to produce standardized variables. To understand discrepancies owing to wear-time variation, all analyses were conducted pre- and post-standardization. Descriptive analyses revealed systematic wear-time variation, both between and within participants. Pre- and post-standardized descriptive analyses of SED, LPA and MVPA revealed a persistent and often significant trend of wear-time’s influence on activity. SED was consistently higher on weekdays before standardization; however, this trend was reversed post-standardization. Even though MVPA was significantly higher on weekdays both pre- and post-standardization, the magnitude of this difference decreased post-standardization. Multivariable analyses with standardized SED, LPA and

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Assessment of the Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variations on the Trend of River Flows in Urmia Lake Watershed

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Ashkan Farokhnia

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Trend analysis is one of the appropriate methods to assess the hydro-climatic condition of watersheds, which is commonly used for analysis of change pattern in a single variable over time. However, in real cases, many hydrological variables such as river flow are directly affected by climate and environmental factors, which usually go unnoticed in routine analyzes. The aim of the present research is to investigate the trend of river discharge in 25 hydrometric stations in Lake Urmia river basin with and without consideration of temperature and rainfall variability. Briefly, the results showed that there is a decreasing trend in all stations, which is significant in 9 cases. Also, it has been shown that regarding to trends in precipitation and temperature, the number of stations with significant decreasing trend will reduce to 7, which shows low impact of climate factors on the reduction rate of discharge in these stations. Based on the results, it can be concluded that climate variations have direct effect in inferring significant trends in river flow, so that considering these variables in studying of river discharge can lead to different results in the detection of significant trends.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Modeling of electron time variations in the radiation belts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, K.W.; Teague, M.J.; Schofield, N.J.; Vette, J.I.

1979-01-01

A review of the temporal variation in the trapped electron population of the inner and outer radiation zones is presented. Techniques presently used for modeling these zones are discussed and their deficiencies identified. An intermediate region is indicated between the zones in which the present modeling techniques are inadequate due to the magnitude and frequency of magnetic storms. Future trends are examined, and it is suggested that modeling of individual magnetic storms may be required in certain L bands. An analysis of seven magnetic storms is presented, establishing the independence of the depletion time of the storm flux and the storm magnitude. Provisional correlation between the storm magnitude and the Dst index is demonstrated

Investigation of variations and trends in solar radiation in Klang Valley Region, Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamed Elnour Yassen, Jamaluddin Mohd Jahi

2006-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate variations and trends in the global solar radiation in Klang Valley region. The least square method was used for the trend analysis. Since the available time series covers 27 years, linear regression was preferred for the trend analysis. The linear trend is used mainly to test the change in solar radiation and to set limits on the rate of change. Trend line and values and significance levels of the slopes have been found. The seasonal and the annual average values were computed from the monthly average radiation data. The seasonal and annual average solar radiation values were designated as dependent variables, and thus, were fitted linearly for season and annual means for each station. The results showed that the mean of maximum incoming global radiation in Sepember with a value of 21.1 MJ m-2 at Petaling Jaya, while the mean minimum in November and December with values of 10.7 and 10.9 MJ m-2 at Petaling Jaya. The low amounts of solar radiation received in November and December are due to greater cloudiness during the period coinciding with the northeast monsoon season. On rainy days, very little global solar radiation received in November and December are due to greater cloudiness during the period coinciding with the northeast monsoon season. On rainy days, very little global solar radiation is received. The distribution of the seasonal mean values of solar radiation exhibits a high symmetry. Inter-monsoon seasons (April-May) and (October-November) show a similar behavior, just like the northeast monsoon season. The overall average rate of change in global solar radiation during 1975-2002 and 1977-2000 is represented by the slope of the linear regression was small (-0.126 and -0.314 MJ m-2 per year for Subang Airport and Petaling Jaya respectively)

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suhartono Suhartono

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Are, Chandrakanth; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Croo, Darren; Clarey, Dillon; Smith, Lynette; Price, Ray R; Butte, Jean M; Gupta, Sameer; Chaturvedi, Arun; Chowdhury, Sanjib

2017-04-01

The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

SYSTEMATIC CENTER-TO-LIMB VARIATION IN MEASURED HELIOSEISMIC TRAVEL TIMES AND ITS EFFECT ON INFERENCES OF SOLAR INTERIOR MERIDIONAL FLOWS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao Junwei; Nagashima, Kaori; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, A. G. [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4085 (United States); Duvall, T. L. Jr. [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

2012-04-10

We report on a systematic center-to-limb variation in measured helioseismic travel times, which must be taken into account for an accurate determination of solar interior meridional flows. The systematic variation, found in time-distance helioseismology analysis using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA observations, is different in both travel-time magnitude and variation trend for different observables. It is not clear what causes this systematic effect. Subtracting the longitude-dependent east-west travel times, obtained along the equatorial area, from the latitude-dependent north-south travel times, obtained along the central meridian area, gives remarkably similar results for different observables. We suggest this as an effective procedure for removing the systematic center-to-limb variation. The subsurface meridional flows obtained from inversion of the corrected travel times are approximately 10 m s{sup -1} slower than those obtained without removing the systematic effect. The detected center-to-limb variation may have important implications in the derivation of meridional flows in the deep interior and needs to be better understood.

SYSTEMATIC CENTER-TO-LIMB VARIATION IN MEASURED HELIOSEISMIC TRAVEL TIMES AND ITS EFFECT ON INFERENCES OF SOLAR INTERIOR MERIDIONAL FLOWS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Junwei; Nagashima, Kaori; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Duvall, T. L. Jr.

2012-01-01

We report on a systematic center-to-limb variation in measured helioseismic travel times, which must be taken into account for an accurate determination of solar interior meridional flows. The systematic variation, found in time-distance helioseismology analysis using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA observations, is different in both travel-time magnitude and variation trend for different observables. It is not clear what causes this systematic effect. Subtracting the longitude-dependent east-west travel times, obtained along the equatorial area, from the latitude-dependent north-south travel times, obtained along the central meridian area, gives remarkably similar results for different observables. We suggest this as an effective procedure for removing the systematic center-to-limb variation. The subsurface meridional flows obtained from inversion of the corrected travel times are approximately 10 m s –1 slower than those obtained without removing the systematic effect. The detected center-to-limb variation may have important implications in the derivation of meridional flows in the deep interior and needs to be better understood.

Systematic Center-To-Limb Variation in Measured Helioseismic Travel Times and Its Effect on Inferences of Solar Interior Meridional Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Junwei; Nagashima, Kaori; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, Alexander; Duvall, T. L., Jr.

2012-01-01

We report on a systematic center-to-limb variation in measured helioseismic travel times, which must be taken into account for an accurate determination of solar interior meridional flows. The systematic variation, found in time-distance helioseismology analysis using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA observations, is different in both travel-time magnitude and variation trend for different observables. It is not clear what causes this systematic effect. Subtracting the longitude-dependent east-west travel times, obtained along the equatorial area, from the latitude-dependent north-south travel times, obtained along the central meridian area, gives remarkably similar results for different observables. We suggest this as an effective procedure for removing the systematic center-to-limb variation. The subsurface meridional flows obtained from inversion of the corrected travel times are approximately 10 m s-1 slower than those obtained without removing the systematic effect. The detected center-to-limb variation may have important implications in the derivation of meridional flows in the deep interior and needs to be better understood.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2018-03-05

Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

OpenAIRE

Wilhelmsen, Tiril

2017-01-01

Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

International variations and trends in renal cell carcinoma incidence and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

2015-03-01

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s. To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden. We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs). RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends. Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening. Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited. Copyright © 2014 European Association of

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naif Fnais

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

Trends and variations of pH and hardness in a typical semi-arid river in a monsoon climate region during 1985-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Shaonan; Li, Xuyong; Jiang, Yan; Zhao, Hongtao; Yang, Lei

2016-09-01

The rapid growth of urbanization and industrialization, along with dramatic climate change, has strongly influenced hydrochemical characteristics in recent decades in China and thus could cause the variation of pH and general total hardness of a river. To explore such variations and their potential influencing factors in a river of the monsoon climate region, we analyzed a long-term monitoring dataset of pH, SO4 (2-), NOx, general total hardness (GH), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), and Cl(-) in surface water and groundwater in the Luan River basin from 1985 to 2009. The nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to test the long-term trends of pH and GH. Relationship between the affecting factors, pH and GH were discussed. Results showed that pH showed a decreasing trend and that GH had an increasing trend in the long-term. Seasonal variation of pH and GH was mainly due to the typical monsoon climate. Results of correlation analysis showed that the unit area usage amounts of chemical fertilizer, NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were negatively correlated with pH in groundwater. In addition, mining activity affected GH spatial variation. Acid deposition, drought, and increasing the use of chemical fertilizers would contribute to the acidification trend, and mining activities would affect the spatial variation of GH. Variations of precipitation and runoff in semi-arid monsoon climate areas had significant influences on the pH and GH. Our findings implied that human activities played a critical role in river acidification in the semi-arid monsoon climate region of northern China.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

Science.gov (United States)

Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

2011-09-01

To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients from SLR data: estimation of Earth's figure axis and LOD variations

Science.gov (United States)

Luceri, V.; Sciarretta, C.; Bianco, G.

2012-12-01

The redistribution of the mass within the earth system induces changes in the Earth's gravity field. In particular, the second-degree geopotential coefficients reflect the behaviour of the Earth's inertia tensor of order 2, describing the main mass variations of our planet impacting the EOPs. Thanks to the long record of accurate and continuous laser ranging observations to Lageos and other geodetic satellites, SLR is the only current space technique capable to monitor the long time variability of the Earth's gravity field with adequate accuracy. Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients are estimated with our analysis of SLR data (spanning more than 25 years) from several geodetic satellites in order to detect trends and periodic variations related to tidal effects and atmospheric/oceanic mass variations. This study is focused on the variations of the second-degree Stokes coefficients related to the Earth's principal figure axis and oblateness: C21, S21 and C20. On the other hand, surface mass load variations induce excitations in the EOPs that are proportional to the same second-degree coefficients. The time series of direct estimates of low degree geopotential and those derived from the EOP excitation functions are compared and presented together with their time and frequency analysis.

On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

OpenAIRE

Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

2015-01-01

Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

1991-02-01

The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

2014-08-15

Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. METHODS: Register data on income...... quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all....

Geographical variation and sexual differences of body length and age composition in Rana temporaria: the ontogenetic development and phenotypic trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyapkov Sergey

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The analysis of literature data on the mean values of age and body length of adult individuals of widespread species Rana temporaria from about 70 spatially separated populations, including our published data, was conducted. The evident trend in population mean age increase with the decrease of the of activity season length was revealed as well as the absence of that trend in the mean body length, with the maximal mean value in body length being near central part of the range. Our explanation of non-linear trend in the mean values of body length does not contradict other models of geographic variability explaining the correspondence and discrepance with the Bergman rule. In addition our explanation corresponds to the revealed features of interpopulation variation in growth rate. The revealed trend of variation in the mean body length is resulted from both growth rate decrease and mean age increase with the decrease in the length of activity season. The relatively low mean values of body length in populations from south and southern-west borders of the range are explained not only by low mean age but by lower growth rate despite high length of activity season. The interpopulation variation in body length is determined not only by body length but by age composition differences both between and within population. Therefore, the direction and intensity of sexual differences have not distinct trends, and the correspondence to Rensch rule (in contrast to Bergman rule is rarely observed.

The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

OpenAIRE

Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

2008-01-01

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Canudas-Romo, V

2010-01-01

at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

Gender-related difference, geographical variation and time trend in dietary cadmium intake in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, T.; Shimbo, S.; Nakatsuka, H.; Koizumi, A.; Higashikawa, K.; Matsuda-Inoguchi, N.; Ikeda, M.

2004-01-01

Objectives: The present analysis was initiated to examine possible gender-dependency, geographic variation, and time-dependent changes in dietary intake of cadmium (Cd-F) among general populations in Cd-non-polluted areas in Japan. The role of rice as Cd-F source was also within the scope. Methods: Two databases on Cd and nutritional analyses were re-visited. Both databases were established through collection of 24-h food duplicate portion samples from residents in areas with no known Cd pollution, and contained information on Cd and energy contents in the duplicate portion, together with daily rice consumption, the gender, the age and the location of the residence of each sample donor. The first and the second databases were established through surveys in the years around 1980 on 564 cases and around 1995 on 702 cases, respectively. The two databases were combined for evaluation by multiple regression (MRA) and other analyses. Results: The analyses showed that men tended to take more Cd than women, more clearly so in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. When Cd-F in the 1995 survey was compared with that in the 1980 survey, a substantial decrease was observed, e.g. by 30% (from 37.5 to 26.2 μg/day) in case of women. Cd-F values varied subject to the survey sites in a wide range (e.g. from 20 to 86 μg/day among women in the 1980 survey). In MRA with Cd-F as a dependent variable and survey sites and food intake factors (e.g. rice and energy intakes) as independent variables, the survey sites could explain more than 53% and 35% of total variation in Cd-F in the 1980 and 1995 surveys, respectively. Rice consumption was also influential to Cd-F in both surveys with partial correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.21, respectively, the influence being stronger in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. A significant correlation was detected between the 1980 and 1995 survey results both in Cd-F and in rice consumption. Conclusion: Geographic and gender

Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

2009-01-01

One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Variational derivation of a time-dependent Hartree-Fock Hamiltonian

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lichtner, P.C.; Griffin, J.J.; Schultheis, H.; Schultheis, R.; Volkov, A.B.

1979-01-01

The variational derivation of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock equation is reviewed. When norm-violating variations are included, a unique time-dependent Hartree-Fock Hamiltonian, which differs from that customarily used in time-dependent Hartree-Fock analyses, is implied. This variationally ''true'' Hartree-Fock Hamiltonian has the same expectation value as the exact Hamiltonian, equal to the average energy of the system. Since this quantity remains constant under time-dependent Hartree-Fock time evolution, we suggest the label ''constant '' for this form of time-dependent Hartree-Fock theory

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Brewer, Simon

2018-02-01

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in ‘growing degree days’—a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year—of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that

Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2014-10-01

Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

OpenAIRE

Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

2010-01-01

Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

Seasonal Variations and Yearly Trend Evaluations of Sedimentation Loads: A Case Study at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aida Soraya Shamsuddin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The aims of this study were to determine the relationship between seasonal variations (wet and dry periods on sedimentation loads and to identify the yearly trend of sedimentation loads at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia from 2003 to 2008. It was found that wet and dry periods influenced the transportation of suspended sediment into the river significantly. The highest suspended sediment loads at Chalok River occurred during the wet period when the intensity of rainfall is high. Besides, the rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads also were analysed using Spearman correlation to identify their relationships. The results showed significant positive relationship between suspended sediment loads with rainfall (r = 0.664, p< 0.05, water level (r = 0.923, p< 0.05 and stream flow (r = 0.919, p< 0.05. Multiple linear regressions revealed 63% of high suspended sediment loads at Chalok River can be explained by rainfall, water level and stream flow. The trends of rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads were analysed by using Mann-Kendall trend test where the results showed that there is a significant increasing trend for suspended sediment loads but no significant increase trend for rainfall, water level and stream flow over the studied periods. It is evident that the evaluations conducted in this study are useful in providing better understanding and reliable conclusion on the basis of seasonal variations and other environmental variables that affect the sedimentations loads in the river. Such effort provides holistic information for effective and wise management policy of river basin management in the future.

Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

CERN Document Server

Bee Dagum, Estela

2016-01-01

This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis: implications for aetiology and early prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudnicka, Alicja R; Kapetanakis, Venediktos V; Wathern, Andrea K; Logan, Nicola S; Gilmartin, Bernard; Whincup, Peter H; Cook, Derek G; Owen, Christopher G

2016-07-01

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1-18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

A search for transit timing variation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kramm U.

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Photometric follow-ups of transiting exoplanets (TEPs may lead to discoveries of additional, less massive bodies in extrasolar systems. This is possible by detecting and then analysing variations in transit timing of transiting exoplanets. In 2009 we launched an international observing campaign, the aim of which is to detect and characterise signals of transit timing variation (TTV in selected TEPs. The programme is realised by collecting data from 0.6-2.2-m telescopes spread worldwide at different longitudes. We present our observing strategy and summarise first results for WASP-3b with evidence for a 15 Earth-mass perturber in an outer 2:1 orbital resonance.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Variation and Trends of Landscape Dynamics, Land Surface Phenology and Net Primary Production of the Appalachian Mountains

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yeqiao; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhou, Yuyu; Zhang, Hongyan

2012-12-15

The gradients of the Appalachian Mountains in elevations and latitudes provide a unique regional perspective of landscape variations in the eastern United States and a section of the southeastern Canada. This study reveals patterns and trends of landscape dynamics, land surface phenology and ecosystem production along the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and AVHRR Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM) datasets. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), length of growing season (LOS) and net primary production (NPP) of selected ecoregions along the Appalachian Mountains regions. We compared the results out of the Appalachian Mountains regions in different spatial contexts including the North America and the Appalachian Trail corridor area. To reveal latitudinal variations we analyzed data and compared the results between 30°N-40°N and 40°N-50°N latitudes. The result revealed significant decreases in annual peak NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains regions. The trend for the Appalachian Mountains regions was -0.0018 (R2=0.55, P<0.0001) NDVI unit decrease per year during 25 years between 1982 and 2006. The LOS had prolonged 0.3 day yr-1 during 25 years over the Appalachian Mountains regions. The NPP increased by 2.68 gC m-2yr-2 in Appalachian Mountains regions from 1981 to 2000. The comparison with the North America reveals the effects of topography and ecosystem compositions of the Appalachian Mountains. The comparison with the Appalachian Trail corridor area provides a regional mega-transect view of the measured variables.

Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

2015-09-30

Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

2015-01-01

: To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

2010-11-15

We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis

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Michal Engelman

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while overall lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. Objective: We ask why the variation in the adult ages at death has followed a different trend than the variation at younger ages, and aim to explain the diverging patterns in terms of historical changes in the age schedule of mortality. Methods: Using simulations, we show that the empirical trends in lifespan variation are well characterized using the Siler model, which describes the mortality hazard across the full lifespan using functions representing early-life, later-life, and background mortality. We then obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the Siler parameters over time. Finally, we express lifespan variation in terms of a Markov chain model, and apply matrix calculus perturbation analysis to compute the sensitivity of age-specific lifespan variance trends to the changing Siler model parameters. Results: Our analysis produces a detailed quantification of the impact of changing demographic parameters on the pattern of lifespan variability at all ages, highlighting the impact of declining childhood mortality on the reduction of lifespan variability and the impact of improved survival in adulthood on the rising variability of lifespans at older ages. Conclusions: These findings provide insight into the dynamic relationship between the age pattern of survival improvements and time trends in lifespan variability.

Variations with time and age of the excess cancer risk among A-bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.; Preston, D.L.

1990-08-01

This report has two aims: 1) to describe and analyze the age/time patterns of excess cancer risk in the atomic bomb survivor cohort followed up by RERF, and 2) to describe statistical methods which are used in RERF's analyses of data on mortality and morbidity in the cohort. In contrast to previous analyses of the cohort cancer mortality data, substantial use is made of Japanese national cancer rates for the purpose of investigation of the age/time variations in excess risk. This analysis considers mortality from all cancers except leukemia as a group. Primary attention is given to description in terms of the age-specific excess relative risk, but the importance of appropriate descriptions of the absolute excess risk is also emphasized. When models for the excess risk allow variation with age and time, both constant relative and absolute excess risk models provide very similar fits to the data. Previous reports have indicated that for a given age-at-exposure and sex, the excess age-specific relative risk is remarkably constant throughout the current follow-up period. Statistical analysis here indicates that for those less than about 35 years of age at exposure there is no departure from this pattern, beyond ordinary sampling variation. For those over about 35 years of age-at-exposure, there is modest evidence of an increasing trend in the excess relative risk, which could be plausibly attributed to effects related to minimal latent period. Some brief consideration is given to modeling the absolute excess risk as the product of an age-at-exposure and time-since-exposure effect. Interpretation of these results, particularly in regard to projections beyond the current follow-up, is discussed. (author)

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

2008-01-01

,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Brandt

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

1998-12-31

Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

1997-12-31

Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

Phytoplankton Biomass Dynamics in the Strait of Malacca within the Period of the SeaWiFS Full Mission: Seasonal Cycles, Interannual Variations and Decadal-Scale Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eko Siswanto

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Seasonal cycles, interannual variations and decadal trends of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS-retrieved chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a in the Strait of Malacca (SM were investigated with reconstructed, cloud-free SeaWiFS Chl-a during the period of the SeaWiFS full mission (September 1997 to December 2010. Pixel-based non-parametric correlations of SeaWiFS Chl-a on environmental variables were used to identify the probable causes of the observed spatio-temporal variations of SeaWiFS Chl-a in northern, middle and southern regions of the SM. Chl-a was high (low during the northeast (southwest monsoon. The principal causes of the seasonality were wind-driven vertical mixing in the northern region and wind-driven coastal upwelling and possibly river discharges in the middle region. Among the three regions, the southern region showed the largest interannual variations of Chl-a. These variations were associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and river runoff. Interannual variations of Chl-a in the middle and northern regions were more responsive to the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO, respectively, with atmospheric deposition being the most important driver. The most significant decadal-scale trend of increasing Chl-a was in the southern region; the trend was moderate in the middle region. This increasing trend was probably caused by environmental changes unrelated to the variables investigated in this study.

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

2014-10-01

Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Biological variation in tPA-induced plasma clot lysis time.

Science.gov (United States)

Talens, Simone; Malfliet, Joyce J M C; Rudež, Goran; Spronk, Henri M H; Janssen, Nicole A H; Meijer, Piet; Kluft, Cornelis; de Maat, Moniek P M; Rijken, Dingeman C

2012-10-01

Hypofibrinolysis is a risk factor for venous and arterial thrombosis, and can be assessed by using a turbidimetric tPA-induced clot lysis time (CLT) assay. Biological variation in clot lysis time may affect the interpretation and usefulness of CLT as a risk factor for thrombosis. Sufficient information about assay variation and biological variation in CLT is not yet available. Thus, this study aimed to determine the analytical, within-subject and between-subject variation in CLT. We collected blood samples from 40 healthy individuals throughout a period of one year (average 11.8 visits) and determined the CLT of each plasma sample in duplicate. The mean (± SD) CLT was 83.8 (± 11.1) minutes. The coefficients of variation for total variation, analytical variation, within-subject variation and between-subject variation were 13.4%, 2.6%, 8.2% and 10.2%, respectively. One measurement can estimate the CLT that does not deviate more than 20% from its true value. The contribution of analytical variation to the within-subject variation was 5.0%, the index of individuality was 0.84 and the reference change value was 23.8%. The CLT was longer in the morning compared to the afternoon and was slightly longer in older individuals (> 40 years) compared to younger (≤40 years) individuals. There was no seasonal variation in CLT and no association with air pollution. CLT correlated weakly with fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, prothrombin time and thrombin generation. This study provides insight into the biological variation of CLT, which can be used in future studies testing CLT as a potential risk factor for thrombosis.

Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gillum Richard F

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007. Methods Data for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999–2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA and European Americans (EA aged 35–84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC. Results For both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (−4.2, large fringe metro (−4.3, medium metro urbanization strata (−4.4, and small metro (−3.9. APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (−5.3, and especially the non-core/non-metro (−6.5. For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (−5.3, large fringe metro (−4.3 and medium metro

Trends and temporal variations of major greenhouse gases at a rural site in Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Haszpra, L.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Szilágyi, I.; Dlugokencky, E.; Tans, P.

In this study the trends and temporal variations of four major greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2O, SF 6) measured at Hegyhátsál, Hungary, are analyzed. The long term trends observed closely follow the global tendencies. The relatively small positive offset can be attributed to the European anthropogenic sources. The seasonal cycles are basically governed by that in the atmospheric mixing, however, in the case of CO 2 and N 2O it is also modulated by the temporal variation in the biological activity. A secondary maximum in SF 6 mixing ratio in summer may indicate the additional contribution of the seasonally changing circulation pattern. The daily cycles are dominated by the diurnal variation in the vertical mixing of the atmosphere. However, in the case of CO 2 the diurnal cycle in the biospheric uptake/release is the governing process, especially in the growing season. The lack of diurnal cycle in the mixing ratio of the exclusively anthropogenic SF 6 indicates that there is no notable anthropogenic activity in the influence area of the station, which also means that Hegyhátsál can be considered to be a rural monitoring site as free from direct anthropogenic pollution as it is possible in Central Europe. It is demonstrated that the diurnal covariance between the mixing ratios and the vertical mixing at a mid-continental, low elevation site has to be taken into account, and properly handled, in the dispersion models, otherwise the results may be distorted. The collocated measurement of greenhouse gases of different origin could potentially help modelers to improve the boundary layer representation and horizontal diffusion simulation in the three dimensional atmospheric transport models.

Relaxation time of normal breast tissues. Changes with age and variations during the menstrual cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dean, K.I.; Majurin, M.L.; Komu, M.

1994-01-01

The influence of age on the relaxation times of normal breast parenchyma and its surrounding fatty tissue were evaluated, and the variations during a normal menstrual cycle were analyzed using an ultra low field 0.02 T imager. Thirty-nine healthy volunteers aged 21 to 59 years were examined to determine T1 and T2 relaxation times, and 8 of these volunteers were studied once weekly during one menstrual cycle. The only significant trend was an increase in the T2 of breast parenchyma with increasing age. During the menstrual cycle there was a slight but insignificant (p=0.10) increase in T1 of the breast parenchyma values during the latter half of the menstrual cycle, and a corresponding increase in T2 values between the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the menstrual cycle, which was significant. (orig.)

Relaxation time of normal breast tissues. Changes with age and variations during the menstrual cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dean, K.I. (University Central Hospital, Turku (Finland). Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology); Majurin, M.L. (University Central Hospital, Turku (Finland). Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology); Komu, M. (University Central Hospital, Turku (Finland). Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology)

1994-05-01

The influence of age on the relaxation times of normal breast parenchyma and its surrounding fatty tissue were evaluated, and the variations during a normal menstrual cycle were analyzed using an ultra low field 0.02 T imager. Thirty-nine healthy volunteers aged 21 to 59 years were examined to determine T1 and T2 relaxation times, and 8 of these volunteers were studied once weekly during one menstrual cycle. The only significant trend was an increase in the T2 of breast parenchyma with increasing age. During the menstrual cycle there was a slight but insignificant (p=0.10) increase in T1 of the breast parenchyma values during the latter half of the menstrual cycle, and a corresponding increase in T2 values between the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the menstrual cycle, which was significant. (orig.).

SYSTEMATIC AND STOCHASTIC VARIATIONS IN PULSAR DISPERSION MEASURES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J. M.; Chatterjee, S.; Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Armstrong, J. W.

2016-01-01

We analyze deterministic and random temporal variations in the dispersion measure (DM) from the full three-dimensional velocities of pulsars with respect to the solar system, combined with electron-density variations over a wide range of length scales. Previous treatments have largely ignored pulsars’ changing distances while favoring interpretations involving changes in sky position from transverse motion. Linear trends in pulsar DMs observed over 5–10 year timescales may signify sizable DM gradients in the interstellar medium (ISM) sampled by the changing direction of the line of sight to the pulsar. We show that motions parallel to the line of sight can also account for linear trends, for the apparent excess of DM variance over that extrapolated from scintillation measurements, and for the apparent non-Kolmogorov scalings of DM structure functions inferred in some cases. Pulsar motions through atomic gas may produce bow-shock ionized gas that also contributes to DM variations. We discuss the possible causes of periodic or quasi-periodic changes in DM, including seasonal changes in the ionosphere, annual variations of the solar elongation angle, structure in the heliosphere and ISM boundary, and substructure in the ISM. We assess the solar cycle’s role on the amplitude of ionospheric and solar wind variations. Interstellar refraction can produce cyclic timing variations from the error in transforming arrival times to the solar system barycenter. We apply our methods to DM time series and DM gradient measurements in the literature and assess their consistency with a Kolmogorov medium. Finally, we discuss the implications of DM modeling in precision pulsar timing experiments

[Variation trends of the vegetations in distribution region of Amur tiger based on MODIS NDVI].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hua-Ru; Wang, Tian-Ming; Ge, Han-Ping

2012-10-01

By using the averaged 250 m MODIS NDVI data in growth seasons of 2000-2010 and the approach of ordinary linear regression, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the vegetations in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica), the Far East region of Russia and the eastern part of Northeast China, as well as the relationships between these variation trends and the anthropogenic activities. In 2000 - 2010, the areas with significantly decreased NDVI were sparsely distributed and accounted for 9.6% of the total, while the areas with significantly increased NDVI were mainly concentrated in the central part of northern Russia Far East Region and only accounted for 0.5% of the total. The percentage of the areas with significantly decreased NDVI in the distribution region of Amur tiger was slightly higher than that in the whole study region. The areas with significantly decreased NDVI were mainly distributed in the places of low elevation, gentle slope, and close to roads/railroads. The number of the pixels with significantly decreased NDVI increased with the increase of the nearest distance to residential locations first, and then decreased gradually. The significant decrease of the NDVI was closely related to the anthropogenic activities, and thus, to adopt effective measures to reduce human disturbances could control the vegetation degradation, and further, provide sustainable basis for the protection of Amur tiger and the conservation of the biodiversity in the studied region.

Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

2011-08-01

The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

2010-01-01

AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

Timing Variations in Two Balkan Percussion Performances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Goldberg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Many songs and dance pieces from the Balkan Peninsula employ aksak meter, in which two categorically different durations, long and short, coexist in the sequence of beats that performers emphasize and listeners move to. This paper analyzes the durations of aksak beats and measures in two recorded percussion performances that use a particular aksak beat sequence, long-short-short. The results suggest that the timing of beats varies in conjunction with factors including melodic grouping and interaction among members of a performing ensemble and audience. Timing variation linked to melodic groups occurs on a solo recording of a Macedonian Romani folk song. The performer, Muzafer Bizlim, taps an ostinato while singing, and the timing of his taps seems to mark some local and large-scale group boundaries. Melodic organization also seems relevant to the timing of beats and measures on a recording of Bulgarian percussionist Mitko Popov playing the tŭpan, a double-headed bass drum, in a small folk music ensemble. In Popov’s performance, however, timing differences might be related to characteristics of the ensemble dynamic, such as the coordination of multiple musical participants. These interpretations generate possibilities for future study of timing variations in relation to rhythm and meter.

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Science.gov (United States)

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-05-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

2016-09-28

To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973-1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004-2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level ( p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone ( p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres' beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15-64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

Science.gov (United States)

Sayer, Liana C.

2005-01-01

This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Time variation of fundamental couplings and dynamical dark energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dent, Thomas; Stern, Steffen; Wetterich, Christof

2009-01-01

Scalar field dynamics may give rise to a nonzero cosmological variation of fundamental constants. Within different scenarios based on the unification of gauge couplings, the various claimed observations and bounds may be combined in order to trace or restrict the time history of the couplings and masses. If the scalar field is responsible for a dynamical dark energy or quintessence, cosmological information becomes available for its time evolution. Combining this information with the time variation of couplings, one can determine the interaction strength between the scalar and atoms, which may be observed by tests of the Weak Equivalence Principle. We compute bounds on the present rate of coupling variation from experiments testing the differential accelerations for bodies with equal mass and different composition and compare the sensitivity of various methods. In particular, we discuss two specific models of scalar evolution: crossover quintessence and growing neutrino models

Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2014-09-01

The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

OpenAIRE

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-01-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2002-12-01

Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

Modelling the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variations using observatory data

OpenAIRE

Hamilton, Brian; Macmillan, Susan

2008-01-01

We present on-going work towards building a global model of the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variation using bservatory data. We select hourly mean data during June 2006 (solar minimum). We fit Fourier series in time, with a fundamental period of 24 hours, to the data at each observatory. We then use global spherical harmonic expansions to separate the daily variation signal, as characterised by the Fourier coefficients in time, into external and induced internal contributions. The mode...

The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, A. V.

The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

2016-01-01

Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changfa Xia

2016-09-01

Full Text Available To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005. To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002 but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089 level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Changfa; Kahn, Clare; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Chen, Wanqing; Yu, Xue Qin

2016-01-01

To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents. PMID:27690073

Chrono-nutrition: a review of current evidence from observational studies on global trends in time-of-day of energy intake and its association with obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Almoosawi, S; Vingeliene, S; Karagounis, L G; Pot, G K

2016-11-01

The importance of the circadian rhythm in regulating human food intake behaviour and metabolism has long been recognised. However, little is known as to how energy intake is distributed over the day in existing populations, and its potential association with obesity. The present review describes global trends in time-of-day of energy intake in the general population based on data from cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity is also summarised. Overall, there were a limited number of cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts that provided data on time-of-day of energy intake. In the identified studies, a wide variation in time-of-day of energy intake was observed, with patterns of energy distribution varying greatly by country and geographical area. In relation to obesity, eight cross-sectional surveys and two longitudinal cohorts were identified. The association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity varied widely, with several studies reporting a positive link between evening energy intake and obesity. In conclusion, the current review summarises global trends in time-of-day of energy intake. The large variations across countries and global regions could have important implications to health, emphasising the need to understand the socio-environmental factors guiding such differences in eating patterns. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and BMI also varied. Further larger scale collaborations between various countries and regions are needed to sum data from existing surveys and cohorts, and guide our understanding of the role of chrono-nutrition in health.

Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo; Ditmar, Pavel

2016-11-01

The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.

Time-Dependent Variations of Accretion Disk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hye-Weon Na

1987-06-01

Full Text Available In dward nova we assume the primary star as a white dwarf and the secondary as the late type star which filled Roche lobe. Mass flow from the secondary star leads to the formation of thin accretion disk around the white dwarf. We use the α parameter as viscosity to maintain the disk form and propose that the outburst in dwarf nova cause the steep increase of source term. With these assumptions we solve the basic equations of stellar structure using Newton-Raphson method. We show the physical parameters like temperature, density, pressure, opacity, surface density, height and flux to the radius of disk. Changing the value of α, we compare several parameters when mass flow rate is constant with those of when luminosity of disk is brightest. At the same time, we obtain time-dependent variations of luminosity and mass of disk. We propose the suitable range of α is 0.15-0.18 to the difference of luminosity. We compare several parameters of disk with those of the normal late type stars which have the same molecular weight of disk is lower. Maybe the outburst in dwarf nova is due to the variation of the α value instead of increment of mass flow from the secondary star.

Comparison between linear and nonlinear trends in NOAA-15 AMSU-A brightness temperatures during 1998-2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qin, Z. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Zou, X. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Weng, F. [NOAA/NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-10-15

Brightness temperature observations from Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on board National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites have been widely utilized for estimating the global climate trend in the troposphere and stratosphere. A common approach for deriving the trend is linear regression, which implicitly assumes the trend being a straight line over the whole length of a time series and is often highly sensitive to the data record length. This study explores a new adaptive and temporally local data analysis method - Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) - for estimating the global trends. In EEMD, a non-stationary time series is decomposed adaptively and locally into a sequence of amplitude-frequency modulated oscillatory components and a time-varying trend. The AMSU-A data from the NOAA-15 satellite over the time period from October 26, 1998 to August 7, 2010 are employed for this study. Using data over Amazon rainforest areas, it is shown that channel 3 is least sensitive to the orbital drift among four AMSU-A surface sensitive channels. The decadal trends of AMSU-A channel 3 and other eight channels in the troposphere and stratosphere are deduced and compared using both methods. It is shown that the decadal climate trends of most AMSU-A channels are nonlinear except for channels 3-4 in Northern Hemisphere only and channels 12-13. Although the decadal trend variation of the global average brightness temperature is no more than 0.2 K, the regional decadal trend variation could be more (less) than 3 K (-3 K) in high latitudes and over high terrains. (orig.)

Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

Science.gov (United States)

Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

2018-01-01

For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

2009-09-18

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farhat Iqbal

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

Time-varying BRDFs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

2007-01-01

The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

Deterministic Chaos in Radon Time Variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planinic, J.; Vukovic, B.; Radolic, V.; Faj, Z.; Stanic, D.

2003-01-01

Radon concentrations were continuously measured outdoors, in living room and basement in 10-minute intervals for a month. The radon time series were analyzed by comparing algorithms to extract phase-space dynamical information. The application of fractal methods enabled to explore the chaotic nature of radon in the atmosphere. The computed fractal dimensions, such as Hurst exponent (H) from the rescaled range analysis, Lyapunov exponent (λ ) and attractor dimension, provided estimates of the degree of chaotic behavior. The obtained low values of the Hurst exponent (0< H<0.5) indicated anti-persistent behavior (non random changes) of the time series, but the positive values of the λ pointed out the grate sensitivity on initial conditions and appearing deterministic chaos by radon time variations. The calculated fractal dimensions of attractors indicated more influencing (meteorological) parameters on radon in the atmosphere. (author)

Radon time variations and deterministic chaos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Planinic, J. E-mail: planinic@pedos.hr; Vukovic, B.; Radolic, V

2004-07-01

Radon concentrations were continuously measured outdoors, in the living room and in the basement at 10 min intervals for a month. Radon time series were analyzed by comparing algorithms to extract phase space dynamical information. The application of fractal methods enabled exploration of the chaotic nature of radon in atmosphere. The computed fractal dimensions, such as the Hurst exponent (H) from the rescaled range analysis, Lyapunov exponent ({lambda}) and attractor dimension, provided estimates of the degree of chaotic behavior. The obtained low values of the Hurst exponent (0time series, but the positive values of {lambda} pointed out the grate sensitivity on initial conditions and the deterministic chaos that appeared due to radon time variations. The calculated fractal dimensions of attractors indicated more influencing (meteorological) parameters on radon in the atmosphere.

Radon time variations and deterministic chaos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planinic, J.; Vukovic, B.; Radolic, V.

2004-01-01

Radon concentrations were continuously measured outdoors, in the living room and in the basement at 10 min intervals for a month. Radon time series were analyzed by comparing algorithms to extract phase space dynamical information. The application of fractal methods enabled exploration of the chaotic nature of radon in atmosphere. The computed fractal dimensions, such as the Hurst exponent (H) from the rescaled range analysis, Lyapunov exponent (λ) and attractor dimension, provided estimates of the degree of chaotic behavior. The obtained low values of the Hurst exponent (0< H<0.5) indicated anti-persistent behavior (non-random changes) of the time series, but the positive values of λ pointed out the grate sensitivity on initial conditions and the deterministic chaos that appeared due to radon time variations. The calculated fractal dimensions of attractors indicated more influencing (meteorological) parameters on radon in the atmosphere

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

State Variation in Medical Imaging: Despite Great Variation, the Medicare Spending Decline Continues.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Hughes, Danny R; Duszak, Richard

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to assess state-level trends in per beneficiary Medicare spending on medical imaging. Medicare part B 5% research identifiable files from 2004 through 2012 were used to compute national and state-by-state annual average per beneficiary spending on imaging. State-to-state geographic variation and temporal trends were analyzed. National average per beneficiary Medicare part B spending on imaging increased 7.8% annually between 2004 ($350.54) and its peak in 2006 ($405.41) then decreased 4.4% annually between 2006 and 2012 ($298.63). In 2012, annual per beneficiary spending was highest in Florida ($367.25) and New York ($355.67) and lowest in Ohio ($67.08) and Vermont ($72.78). Maximum state-to-state geographic variation increased over time, with the ratio of highest-spending state to lowest-spending state increasing from 4.0 in 2004 to 5.5 in 2012. Spending in nearly all states decreased since peaks in 2005 (six states) or 2006 (43 states). The average annual decrease among states was 5.1% ± 1.8% (range, 1.2-12.2%) The largest decrease was in Ohio. In only two states did per beneficiary spending increase (Maryland, 12.5% average annual increase since 2005; Oregon, 4.8% average annual increase since 2008). Medicare part B average per beneficiary spending on medical imaging declined in nearly every state since 2005 and 2006 peaks, abruptly reversing previously reported trends. Spending continued to increase, however, in Maryland and Oregon. Identification of state-level variation may facilitate future investigation of the potential effect of specific and regional changes in spending on patient access and outcomes.

National Trends and Geographic Variation in Availability of Home Health Care: 2002-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yun; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Fine, Jonathan; Pandolfi, Michelle M; Gao, Yan; Liu, Fanglin; Eckenrode, Sheila; Lichtman, Judith H

2017-07-01

To evaluate national trends and geographic variation in the availability of home health care from 2002 to 2015 and identify county-specific characteristics associated with home health care. Observational study. All counties in the United States. All Medicare-certified home health agencies included in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Home Health Compare system. County-specific availability of home health care, defined as the number of available home health agencies that provided services to a given county per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years. The study included 15,184 Medicare-certified home health agencies that served 97% of U.S. ZIP codes. Between 2002-2003 and 2014-2015, the county-specific number of available home health agencies per 100,000 population aged ≥18 years increased from 14.7 to 21.8 and the median (inter-quartile range) population that was serviced by at least one home health agency increased from 403,605 (890,329) to 455,488 (1,039,328). Considerable geographic variation in the availability of home health care was observed. The West, North East, and South Atlantic regions had lower home health care availability than the Central regions, and this pattern persisted over the study period. Counties with higher median income, a larger senior population, higher rates of households without a car and low access to stores, more obesity, greater inactivity, and higher proportions of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic populations were more likely to have higher availability of home health care. The availability of home health care increased nationwide during the study period, but there was much geographic variation. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Variation in Part-Time Work among Pediatric Subspecialties.

Science.gov (United States)

Freed, Gary L; Boyer, Debra M; Van, Kenton D; Macy, Michelle L; McCormick, Julie; Leslie, Laurel K

2018-04-01

To assess the part-time workforce and average hours worked per week among pediatric subspecialists in the 15 medical subspecialties certified by the American Board of Pediatrics. We examined data from pediatric subspecialists who enrolled in Maintenance of Certification with the American Board of Pediatrics from 2009 to 2015. Data were collected via an online survey. Providers indicated whether they worked full time or part time and estimated the average number of hours worked per week in clinical, research, education, and administrative tasks, excluding time on call. We calculated and compared the range of hours worked by those in full- and part-time positions overall, by demographic characteristics, and by subspecialty. Overall, 9.6% of subspecialists worked part time. There was significant variation in part-time employment rates between subspecialties, ranging from 3.8% among critical care pediatricians to 22.9% among developmental-behavioral pediatricians. Women, American medical graduates, and physicians older than 70 years of age reported higher rates of part-time employment than men, international medical graduates, and younger physicians. There was marked variation in the number of hours worked across subspecialties. Most, but not all, full-time subspecialists reported working at least 40 hours per week. More than one-half of physicians working part time in hematology and oncology, pulmonology, and transplant hepatology reported working at least 40 hours per week. There are unique patterns of part-time employment and hours worked per week among pediatric medical subspecialists that make simple head counts inadequate to determine the effective workforce. Our findings are limited to the 15 American Board of Pediatrics-certified medical subspecialties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Need, E.A.

1994-01-01

Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

2008-01-01

To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

Trends, demands and challenges in TCAD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bork, Ingo; Moroz, Victor; Bomholt, Lars; Pramanik, Dipu

2005-01-01

Currently, TCAD is most heavily used in the device research and process integration phases of a technology life cycle. However, a major trend visible in the industry is the demand to apply TCAD tools far beyond the integration phase into manufacturing and yield optimization. Short IC product lifetimes make fast yield ramp-up critical for being profitable and TCAD tools build a bridge between IC design and manufacturing. Another major trend is to use TCAD to evaluate layout dependent stress variations and account for these variations in the design flow of standard cells, libraries and custom ICs. This article gives an overview of those trends and addresses resulting challenges for TCAD models and tools

Nongenetic causes of childhood cancers: evidence from international variation, time trends, and risk factor studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunin, Greta R.

2004-01-01

Ionizing radiation and a variety of genetic conditions are thought to explain 5-10% of childhood cancers. Infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in parts of Africa and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) increase the risk of Burkitt's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma, respectively. Other risk factors have not been conclusively identified. A review of the data on international variation in incidence, recent changes in incidence, and risk factors suggests that many childhood cancers are likely to have nongenetic causes. The pattern of international variation and associations with surrogates of infection suggest an infectious etiology for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although no agent has been identified. The biologic plausibility is strong that maternal consumption of food containing DNA topoisomerase II inhibitors may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukemia, although the data are limited now. For brain tumors, cured meats, polyomaviruses, and farm exposures may have etiologic roles. Changes in the incidence and characteristics of children with hepatoblastoma as well as risk factor studies suggest a role for an exposure of very low birth weight babies. High birth weight, tea or coffee consumption, and certain paternal occupations have shown some consistency in their association with Wilms' tumor. For most of the other cancers, very few epidemiologic studies have been conducted, so it is not surprising that nongenetic risk factors have not been detected. The most important difference between the cancers for which there are good etiologic clues and those for which there are not may be the number of relevant studies

Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

2014-01-01

Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

Continuous radon measurements in schools: time variations and related parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giovani, C.; Cappelletto, C.; Garavaglia, M.; Pividore, S.; Villalta, R.

2004-01-01

Some results are reported of observations made within a four-year survey, during different seasons and in different conditions of school building use. Natural radon variations (day-night cycles, seasonal and temperature dependent variations etc..) and artificial ones (opening of windows, weekends and vacations, deployment of air conditioning or heating systems. etc.) were investigated as parameters affecting time dependent radon concentrations. (P.A.)

Training and evaluation of neural networks for multi-variate time series processing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fog, Torben L.; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

1995-01-01

We study the training and generalization for multi-variate time series processing. It is suggested to used a quasi-maximum likelihood approach rather than the standard sum of squared errors, thus taking dependencies among the errors of the individual time series into account. This may lead...... to improved generalization performance. Further, we extend the optimal brain damage pruning technique to the multi-variate case. A key ingredient is an algebraic expression for the generalization ability of a multi-variate model. The variability of the suggested techniques are successfully demonstrated...

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Won Park

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Pattern and Variation in the Timing of Aksak Meter: Commentary on Goldberg

OpenAIRE

Rainer Polak

2016-01-01

Daniel Goldberg (2015, this issue) explores relations between timing variations, grouping structure, and musical form in the percussive accompaniment of Balkan folk dance music. A chronometric re-analysis of one of the target article’s two audio samples finds a regular metric timing pattern to consistently underlie the variations Goldberg uncovered. Read together, the target article and this commentary demonstrate the complex interplay of a regular timing pattern with several levels of nuance...

Seasonal latitudinal and secular variations in temperature trend - evidence for influence of anthropogenic sulfate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunter, D E; Schwartz, S E; Wagener, R; Benkovitz, C M [University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography

1993-11-19

Tropospheric aerosols increase the shortwave reflectivity of the Earth-atmosphere system both by scattering light directly, in the absence of clouds, and by enhancing cloud reflectivity. The radiative forcing of climate exerted by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, derived mainly from SO[sub 2] emitted from fossil fuel combustion, is opposite that due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and is estimated to be of comparable average magnitude in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of seasonal and latitudinal variations in temperature anomaly trend for evidence of such a response. Pronounced minima in the rate of temperature increase in summer months in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are consistent with the latitudinal distribution of anthropogenic sulfate and changes in the rate of SO[sub 2] emissions over the industrial era.

Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

2010-01-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2008-06-30

Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

Longitudinal trends in climate drive flowering time clines in North American Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Samis, Karen E; Murren, Courtney J; Bossdorf, Oliver; Donohue, Kathleen; Fenster, Charles B; Malmberg, Russell L; Purugganan, Michael D; Stinchcombe, John R

2012-06-01

Introduced species frequently show geographic differentiation, and when differentiation mirrors the ancestral range, it is often taken as evidence of adaptive evolution. The mouse-ear cress (Arabidopsis thaliana) was introduced to North America from Eurasia 150-200 years ago, providing an opportunity to study parallel adaptation in a genetic model organism. Here, we test for clinal variation in flowering time using 199 North American (NA) accessions of A. thaliana, and evaluate the contributions of major flowering time genes FRI, FLC, and PHYC as well as potential ecological mechanisms underlying differentiation. We find evidence for substantial within population genetic variation in quantitative traits and flowering time, and putatively adaptive longitudinal differentiation, despite low levels of variation at FRI, FLC, and PHYC and genome-wide reductions in population structure relative to Eurasian (EA) samples. The observed longitudinal cline in flowering time in North America is parallel to an EA cline, robust to the effects of population structure, and associated with geographic variation in winter precipitation and temperature. We detected major effects of FRI on quantitative traits associated with reproductive fitness, although the haplotype associated with higher fitness remains rare in North America. Collectively, our results suggest the evolution of parallel flowering time clines through novel genetic mechanisms.

Identifying significant temporal variation in time course microarray data without replicates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Porter Weston

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of time course microarray studies is the identification of genes that demonstrate significant time-dependent variation in their expression levels. Until recently, available methods for performing such significance tests required replicates of individual time points. This paper describes a replicate-free method that was developed as part of a study of the estrous cycle in the rat mammary gland in which no replicate data was collected. Results A temporal test statistic is proposed that is based on the degree to which data are smoothed when fit by a spline function. An algorithm is presented that uses this test statistic together with a false discovery rate method to identify genes whose expression profiles exhibit significant temporal variation. The algorithm is tested on simulated data, and is compared with another recently published replicate-free method. The simulated data consists both of genes with known temporal dependencies, and genes from a null distribution. The proposed algorithm identifies a larger percentage of the time-dependent genes for a given false discovery rate. Use of the algorithm in a study of the estrous cycle in the rat mammary gland resulted in the identification of genes exhibiting distinct circadian variation. These results were confirmed in follow-up laboratory experiments. Conclusion The proposed algorithm provides a new approach for identifying expression profiles with significant temporal variation without relying on replicates. When compared with a recently published algorithm on simulated data, the proposed algorithm appears to identify a larger percentage of time-dependent genes for a given false discovery rate. The development of the algorithm was instrumental in revealing the presence of circadian variation in the virgin rat mammary gland during the estrous cycle.

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

OpenAIRE

Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-01-01

Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

Time-causal decomposition of geomagnetic time series into secular variation, solar quiet, and disturbance signals

Science.gov (United States)

Rigler, E. Joshua

2017-04-26

A theoretical basis and prototype numerical algorithm are provided that decompose regular time series of geomagnetic observations into three components: secular variation; solar quiet, and disturbance. Respectively, these three components correspond roughly to slow changes in the Earth’s internal magnetic field, periodic daily variations caused by quasi-stationary (with respect to the sun) electrical current systems in the Earth’s magnetosphere, and episodic perturbations to the geomagnetic baseline that are typically driven by fluctuations in a solar wind that interacts electromagnetically with the Earth’s magnetosphere. In contrast to similar algorithms applied to geomagnetic data in the past, this one addresses the issue of real time data acquisition directly by applying a time-causal, exponential smoother with “seasonal corrections” to the data as soon as they become available.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

2010-01-01

A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2011-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity: variations around the world, secular trends, and changes after migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Toppari, Jorma; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European countries. These observations are raising the issues of current differences and secular trends in timing of puberty in relation to ethnic, geographical, and socioeconomic background. None of these factors provide an unequivocal explanation for the earlier onset of puberty seen in the United States. In the formerly deprived migrating children, refeeding and catch-up growth may prime maturation. However, precocious puberty is seen also in some nondeprived migrating children. Attention has been paid to the changing milieu after migration, and recently, the possible role of endocrine- disrupting chemicals from the environment has been considered. These observations urge further study of the onset of puberty as a possible sensitive and early marker of the interactions between environmental conditions and genetic susceptibility that can influence physiological and pathological processes.

Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu-Sen Chang

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%, but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999, followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001, Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001, Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003, and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008. No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females, but not in Japan (for males, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group

Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shu-Sen; Chen, Ying-Yeh; Yip, Paul S F; Lee, Won Jin; Hagihara, Akihito; Gunnell, David

2014-04-01

Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries. We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group in

Variation of Rainfall in Three Nigerian Stations, Using harmonic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This work is on the variation of rainfall using harmonic analysis for Portharcourt, Kano and Makurdi data, for the three stations the period of study covered 1977 to 2010, for which the time series plot, the amplitude, the first, second and third harmonics were generated. Portharcourt has a gently increasing trend with ...

Feynman’s clock, a new variational principle, and parallel-in-time quantum dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

McClean, Jarrod R.; Parkhill, John A.; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2013-01-01

We introduce a discrete-time variational principle inspired by the quantum clock originally proposed by Feynman and use it to write down quantum evolution as a ground-state eigenvalue problem. The construction allows one to apply ground-state quantum many-body theory to quantum dynamics, extending the reach of many highly developed tools from this fertile research area. Moreover, this formalism naturally leads to an algorithm to parallelize quantum simulation over time. We draw an explicit connection between previously known time-dependent variational principles and the time-embedded variational principle presented. Sample calculations are presented, applying the idea to a hydrogen molecule and the spin degrees of freedom of a model inorganic compound, demonstrating the parallel speedup of our method as well as its flexibility in applying ground-state methodologies. Finally, we take advantage of the unique perspective of this variational principle to examine the error of basis approximations in quantum dynamics. PMID:24062428

Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions....... Episodes flagged as potentially avoidable were allocated to 913 geographical health-care areas. Age-sex standardized rates and standardized hospitalization ratios, as well as several statistics of variation, were estimated. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-two thousand seven hundred and ninety-two episodes were...

Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

CERN Document Server

Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

2012-01-01

This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

Science.gov (United States)

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2015-05-01

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

2011-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Bjerregaard

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric G. Nolte

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964, and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

No variations in transit times for Qatar-1 b

Science.gov (United States)

Maciejewski, G.; Fernández, M.; Aceituno, F. J.; Ohlert, J.; Puchalski, D.; Dimitrov, D.; Seeliger, M.; Kitze, M.; Raetz, St.; Errmann, R.; Gilbert, H.; Pannicke, A.; Schmidt, J.-G.; Neuhäuser, R.

2015-05-01

Aims: The transiting hot-Jupiter planet Qatar-1 b exhibits variations in transit times that could be perturbative. A hot Jupiter with a planetary companion on a nearby orbit would constitute an unprecedented planetary configuration, which is important for theories of the formation and evolution of planetary systems. We performed a photometric follow-up campaign to confirm or refute transit timing variations. Methods: We extend the baseline of transit observations by acquiring 18 new transit light curves acquired with 0.6-2.0 m telescopes. These photometric time series, together with data available in the literature, were analyzed in a homogenous way to derive reliable transit parameters and their uncertainties. Results: We show that the dataset of transit times is consistent with a linear ephemeris leaving no hint of any periodic variations with a range of 1 min. We find no compelling evidence of a close-in planetary companion to Qatar-1 b. This finding is in line with a paradigm that hot Jupiters are not components of compact multiplanetary systems. Based on dynamical simulations, we place tighter constraints on the mass of any fictitious nearby planet in the system. Furthermore, new transit light curves allowed us to redetermine system parameters with better precision than reported in previous studies. Our values generally agree with previous determinations. Partly based on (1) data collected with telescopes at the Rozhen National Astronomical Observatory and (2) observations obtained with telescopes of the University Observatory Jena, which is operated by the Astrophysical Institute of the Friedrich-Schiller-University.Tables of light curve data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/577/A109

Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

2013-01-01

analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

Earth rotation parameter and variation during 2005–2010 solved with LAGEOS SLR data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Shen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Time series of Earth rotation parameters were estimated from range data measured by the satellite laser ranging technique to the Laser Geodynamics Satellites (LAGEOS-1/2 through 2005 to 2010 using the dynamic method. Compared with Earth orientation parameter (EOP C04, released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, the root mean square errors for the measured X and Y of polar motion (PM and length of day (LOD were 0.24 and 0.25 milliarcseconds (mas, and 0.068 milliseconds (ms, respectively. Compared with ILRSA EOP, the X and Y of PM and LOD were 0.27 and 0.30 mas, and 0.054 ms, respectively. The time series were analyzed using the wavelet transformation and least squares methods. Wavelet analysis showed obvious seasonal and interannual variations of LOD, and both annual and Chandler variations of PM; however, the annual variation could not be distinguished from the Chandler variation because the two frequencies were very close. The trends and periodic variations of LOD and PM were obtained in the least squares sense, and PM showed semi-annual, annual, and Chandler periods. Semi-annual, annual, and quasi-biennial cycles for LOD were also detected. The trend rates of PM in the X and Y directions were 3.17 and −1.60 mas per year, respectively, and the North Pole moved to 26.8°E relative to the crust during 2005–2010. The trend rate of the LOD change was 0.028 ms per year.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis:implications for aetiology and early prevention

OpenAIRE

Rudnicka, Alicja R.; Kapetanakis, Venediktos V.; Wathern, Andrea K.; Logan, Nicola S.; Gilmartin, Bernard; Whincup, Peter H.; Cook, Derek G.; Owen, Christopher G.

2016-01-01

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adj...

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Reducing lumber thickness variation using real-time statistical process control

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas M. Young; Brian H. Bond; Jan Wiedenbeck

2002-01-01

A technology feasibility study for reducing lumber thickness variation was conducted from April 2001 until March 2002 at two sawmills located in the southern U.S. A real-time statistical process control (SPC) system was developed that featured Wonderware human machine interface technology (HMI) with distributed real-time control charts for all sawing centers and...

Own-wage labor supply elasticities: variation across time and estimation methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivier Bargain

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract There is a huge variation in the size of labor supply elasticities in the literature, which hampers policy analysis. While recent studies show that preference heterogeneity across countries explains little of this variation, we focus on two other important features: observation period and estimation method. We start with a thorough survey of existing evidence for both Western Europe and the USA, over a long period and from different empirical approaches. Then, our meta-analysis attempts to disentangle the role of time changes and estimation methods. We highlight the key role of time changes, documenting the incredible fall in labor supply elasticities since the 1980s not only for the USA but also in the EU. In contrast, we find no compelling evidence that the choice of estimation method explains variation in elasticity estimates. From our analysis, we derive important guidelines for policy simulations.

Time dependent variational method in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres del Castillo, G.F.

1987-01-01

Using the fact that the solutions to the time-dependent Schodinger equation can be obtained from a variational principle, by restricting the evolution of the state vector to some surface in the corresponding Hilbert space, approximations to the exact solutions can be obtained, which are determined by equations similar to Hamilton's equations. It is shown that, in order for the approximate evolution to be well defined on a given surface, the imaginary part of the inner product restricted to the surface must be non-singular. (author)

Stability Analysis and Variational Integrator for Real-Time Formation Based on Potential Field

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengqing Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates a framework of real-time formation of autonomous vehicles by using potential field and variational integrator. Real-time formation requires vehicles to have coordinated motion and efficient computation. Interactions described by potential field can meet the former requirement which results in a nonlinear system. Stability analysis of such nonlinear system is difficult. Our methodology of stability analysis is discussed in error dynamic system. Transformation of coordinates from inertial frame to body frame can help the stability analysis focus on the structure instead of particular coordinates. Then, the Jacobian of reduced system can be calculated. It can be proved that the formation is stable at the equilibrium point of error dynamic system with the effect of damping force. For consideration of calculation, variational integrator is introduced. It is equivalent to solving algebraic equations. Forced Euler-Lagrange equation in discrete expression is used to construct a forced variational integrator for vehicles in potential field and obstacle environment. By applying forced variational integrator on computation of vehicles' motion, real-time formation of vehicles in obstacle environment can be implemented. Algorithm based on forced variational integrator is designed for a leader-follower formation.

Pattern and Variation in the Timing of Aksak Meter: Commentary on Goldberg

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Rainer Polak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Daniel Goldberg (2015, this issue explores relations between timing variations, grouping structure, and musical form in the percussive accompaniment of Balkan folk dance music. A chronometric re-analysis of one of the target article’s two audio samples finds a regular metric timing pattern to consistently underlie the variations Goldberg uncovered. Read together, the target article and this commentary demonstrate the complex interplay of a regular timing pattern with several levels of nuanced variation to be performed with fluency, flexibility, and accuracy. This might appear commonplace, but here it is observed in the context of an asymmetric rhythmic mode, non-isochronous beat sequence, and asymmetric metric hierarchy. This context evidently does not represent a constraint of any sort in respect to the rhythmic timing performance, which casts doubts on the deep-seated assumption that metric regularity depends on iso-periodicity and vertical symmetry. This assumption is sometimes explicitly and often implicitly taken as universal; this comment suggests that, on the contrary, it might well be culturally biased.

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

Science.gov (United States)

Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2017-02-01

Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

Decadal trends in the diurnal variation of galactic cosmic rays observed using neutron monitor data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Simon [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.; Owens, Mathew; Lockwood, Mike [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Owen, Chris [Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.

2017-10-01

The diurnal variation (DV) in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is a widely observed phenomenon in neutron monitor data. The background variation considered primarily in this study is due to the balance between the convection of energetic particles away from the Sun and the inward diffusion of energetic particles along magnetic field lines. However, there are also times of enhanced DV following geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions. In this study we investigate changes in the DV over four solar cycles using ground-based neutron monitors at different magnetic latitudes and longitudes at Earth. We divide all of the hourly neutron monitor data into magnetic polarity cycles to investigate cycle-to-cycle variations in the phase and amplitude of the DV. The results show, in general, a similarity between each of the A<0 cycles and A>0 cycles, but with a phase change between the two. To investigate this further, we split the neutron monitor data by solar magnetic polarity between times when the dominant polarity was either directed outward (positive) or inward (negative) at the northern solar pole. We find that the maxima and minima of the DV changes by, typically, 1-2 h between the two polarity states for all non-polar neutron monitors. This difference between cycles becomes even larger in amplitude and phase with the removal of periods with enhanced DV caused by solar wind transients. The time difference between polarity cycles is found to vary in a 22-year cycle for both the maximum and minimum times of the DV. The times of the maximum and minimum in the DV do not always vary in the same manner between A>0 and A<0 polarity cycles, suggesting a slight change in the anisotropy vector of GCRs arriving at Earth between polarity cycles. Polar neutron monitors show differences in phase between polarity cycles which have asymptotic directions at mid-to-high latitudes. All neutron monitors show changes in the amplitude of the

Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

2017-01-01

using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

Untangling Trends and Drivers of Changing River Discharge Along Florida's Gulf Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Glodzik, K.; Kaplan, D. A.; Klarenberg, G.

2017-12-01

Along the relatively undeveloped Big Bend coastline of Florida, discharge in many rivers and springs is decreasing. The causes are unclear, though they likely include a combination of groundwater extraction for water supply, climate variability, and altered land use. Saltwater intrusion from altered freshwater influence and sea level rise is causing transformative ecosystem impacts along this flat coastline, including coastal forest die-off and oyster reef collapse. A key uncertainty for understanding river discharge change is predicting discharge from rainfall, since Florida's karstic bedrock stores large amounts of groundwater, which has a long residence time. This study uses Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate data reduction technique for time series, to find common trends in flow and reveal hydrologic variables affecting flow in eight Big Bend rivers since 1965. The DFA uses annual river flows as response time series, and climate data (annual rainfall and evapotranspiration by watershed) and climatic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Index and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index) as candidate explanatory variables. Significant explanatory variables (one evapotranspiration and three rainfall time series) explained roughly 50% of discharge variation across rivers. Significant trends (representing unexplained variation) were shared among rivers, with geographical grouping of five northern rivers and three southern rivers, along with a strong downward trend affecting six out of eight systems. ENSO and NAO had no significant impact. Advancing knowledge of these dynamics is necessary for forecasting how altered rainfall and temperatures from climate change may impact flows. Improved forecasting is especially important given Florida's reliance on groundwater extraction to support its growing population.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

Intelligent trend analysis for a solar thermal energy collector field

Science.gov (United States)

Juuso, E. K.

2018-03-01

Solar thermal power plants collect available solar energy in a usable form at a temperature range which is adapted to the irradiation levels and seasonal variations. Solar energy can be collected only when the irradiation is high enough to produce the required temperatures. During the operation, a trade-off of the temperature and the flow is needed to achieve a good level for the collected power. The scaling approach brings temporal analysis to all measurements and features: trend indices are calculated by comparing the averages in the long and short time windows, a weighted sum of the trend index and its derivative detects the trend episodes and severity of the trend is estimated by including also the variable level in the sum. The trend index, trend episodes and especially, the deviation index reveal early evolving changes in the operating conditions, including cloudiness and load disturbances. The solution is highly compact: all variables, features and indices are transformed to the range [-2, 2] and represented in natural language which is important in integrating data-driven solutions with domain expertise. The special situations detected during the test campaigns are explained well.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Variation of explosive force at different times of day

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Pereira

2011-03-01

Full Text Available AIM: The purpose of this study was to compare the explosive force and electromyographic (EMG activity at three different times of the day. METHODS: Thirty healthy subjects took part in the study, and carried out two maximum isometric voluntary knee extensions to measure explosive force, through contractile impulse (CI and rate of force development (RFD, and myoelectric signals from quadriceps muscles in the following periods: 07:30-09:30, 13:30-15:30 and 19:30-21:30 (called morning, afternoon and night respectively, on three non-consecutive days. RESULTS: The body temperature was lower in the morning than in the afternoon and night periods. The explosive force, evaluated through contractile impulse (CI and rate of force development (RFD, was greater at night than in the morning, without differences in the myoelectric signal. CONCLUSION: The ability to produce explosive force varies throughout different times of the day without variation in muscular recruitment, indicating that peripheral and not neural mechanisms could be responsible for this variation.

Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charlotte Störmer

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models

OpenAIRE

Börjesson, Maria

2012-01-01

The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time...

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara L Crewe

Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

Dry-wet variations and cause analysis in Northeast China at multi-time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Qi; Pan, Feifei; Pan, Xuebiao; Hu, Liting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Pengyu; Wei, Pei; Pan, Zhihua

2017-07-01

Global warming has caused unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has and will certainly impact on the wet-dry variations. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 91 weather stations in Northeast China (NEC), the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry and wet climatic variables (precipitation, crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and humid index (HI)) are analyzed, and the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed during the period of 1961-2014. Precipitation showed non-significant trend over the period of 1961-2014, while ET0 showed a significant decreasing trend, which led to climate wetting in NEC. The period of 2001-2012 exhibited smaller semiarid area and larger humid area compared to the period of 1961-1980, indicating NEC has experienced wetting process at decadal scale. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity, and wind speed was the second most sensitive variable. Sunshine hours and temperature were found to be less influential to ET0 in the study area. The changes in wind speed in the recent 54 years have caused the greatest influence on ET0, followed by temperature. For each month, wind speed was the most significant variable causing ET0 reduction in all months except July. Temperature, as a dominant factor, made a positive contribution to ET0 in February and March, as well as sunshine hours in June and July, and relative humidity in August and September. In summary, NEC has experienced noticeable climate wetting due to the significantly decreasing ET0, and the decrease in wind speed was the biggest contributor for the ET0 reduction. Although agricultural drought crisis is expected to be partly alleviated, regional water resources management and planning in Northeast China should consider the potential water shortage and water conflict in the future because of spatiotemporal dry-wet variations in NEC.

Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

2017-07-01

Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ethnic variations in overweight and obesity among children over time: findings from analyses of the Health Surveys for England 1998-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsen, S; Morris, S; Kinra, S; Vallejo-Torres, L; Viner, R M

2014-06-01

The increase in the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents in England since the mid-1990s has been dramatic. Cross-sectional evidence suggests ethnic variations in childhood obesity prevalence. The objective of the study was to examine whether and how ethnic variations in childhood overweight/obesity have changed over time, and are affected by socioeconomic factors. This study uses logistic regression to analyse ethnic differences in the relative likelihood of being at or above the age- and gender-specific thresholds for overweight and obesity developed by the International Obesity Task Force among children aged between 2 and 15 from 11 ethnic groups included in the Health Surveys for England between 1998 and 2009, adjusting for age, gender, year of data collection and equivalized household income. We separately analyse the likelihood of being at or above the thresholds for overweight (but below those for obesity) and obesity. Trends in overweight/obesity over time among ethnic minority groups do not follow those of white English children. Black African children had higher rates of overweight and obesity, which appear to have peaked, and black Caribbean children had higher rates of obesity than other groups examined, which appear to continue rising. These differences were not explained by socioeconomic variations between groups. Policies are required that encourage healthy lifestyles among ethnic minority young people, while engaging with the complexities associated with these choices during childhood and adolescence. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Study of long-time variations of cosmic rays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dergachev, V.A.

1979-01-01

Discussed are some problems of the investigation into the cosmic rays intensity in the past via the contents of cosmogenic isotopes in the samples of known age, mainly measuring the activity of radiocarbon in the samples dated by the dendrochronological method. The necessity of production of the multicentury dendrochronological scales with absolute dating for decoding of the information contained in the annual rings during the large time scale is pointed out. The dendrochronologic studies supplemented by the radiocarbon dating would permit to study the variations in radiocarbon content and to determine the factors, which influence this content, during large time intervals. The different factors - the solar activity, the supernovae flares et cetera - influencing the radiocarbon concentration are considered

Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

2015-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quan Wang

Full Text Available Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI, Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season. Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Hundecha

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans in six European countries, 1997-2007

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jore, S.; Viljugrein, H.; Brun, E.

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine incidences of Campylobacter in broilers and humans, and to describe seasonal variation and long-term trends by comparing longitudinal surveillance data in six Northern European countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands). Due...... and then removing this effect from the data. Long-term trends were fitted to the de-seasonalized time series. The incidence of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks and incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans showed a concordant seasonality for all the countries. There was a strong association between...

Analysis of gravity data using trend surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Asimopolos, Natalia-Silvia; Asimopolos, Laurentiu

2013-04-01

In this paper we have developed algorithms and related software programs for calculating of trend surfaces of higher order. These methods of analysis of trends, like mobile media applications are filtration systems for geophysical data in surface. In particular we presented few case studies for gravity data and gravity maps. Analysis with polynomial trend surfaces contributes to the recognition, isolation and measurement of trends that can be represented by surfaces or hyper-surfaces (in several sizes), thus achieving a separation in regional variations and local variations. This separation is achieved by adjusting the trend function at different values. Trend surfaces using the regression analysis satisfy the criterion of least squares. The difference between the surface of trend and the observed value in a certain point is the residual value. Residual sum of squares of these values should be minimal as the criterion of least squares. The trend surface is considered as regional or large-scale and the residual value will be regarded as local or small-scale component. Removing the regional trend has the effect of highlighting local components represented by residual values. Surface analysis and hyper-surfaces principles are applied to the surface trend and any number of dimensions. For hyper-surfaces we can work with polynomial functions with four or more variables (three variables of space and other variables for interest parameters) that have great importance in some applications. In the paper we presented the mathematical developments about generalized trend surfaces and case studies about gravimetric data. The trend surfaces have the great advantage that the effect of regional anomalies can be expressed as analytic functions. These tendency surfaces allows subsequent mathematical processing and interesting generalizations, with great advantage to work with polynomial functions compared with the original discrete data. For gravity data we estimate the depth of

Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II-An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, P Steven; Rao, S Trivikrama; Zurbenko, Igor G; Dunker, Alan M; Wolff, George T

2001-02-01

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O 3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O 3 to emission control policies.

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulomi Ganguli

2016-12-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimura, Yuki

2002-09-01

The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

Controlling spark timing for consecutive cycles to reduce the cyclic variations of SI engines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaleli, Alirıza; Ceviz, Mehmet Akif; Erenturk, Köksal

2015-01-01

Minimization of the cyclic variations is one of the most important design goal for spark-ignited engines. Primary motivation of this study is to reduce the cyclic variations in spark ignition engines by controlling the spark timing for consecutive cycles. A stochastic model was performed between spark timing and in–cylinder maximum pressure by using the system identification techniques. The incylinder maximum pressure of the next cycle was predicted with this model. Minimum variance and generalized minimum variance controllers were designed to regulate the in–cylinder maximum pressure by changing the spark timing for consecutive cycles of the test engine. The produced control algorithms were built in LabView environment and installed to the Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) chassis. According to the test results, the in–cylinder maximum pressure of the next pressure cycle can be predicted fairly well, and the spark timing can be regulated to keep the in–cylinder maximum pressure in a desired band to reduce the cyclic variations. At fixed spark timing experiments, the COV Pmax and COV imep were 3.764 and 0.677%, whereas they decreased to 3.208 and 0.533% when GMV controller was applied, respectively. - Highlights: • Cycle per cycle spark timing control was carried out. • A stochastic process model was described between P max and the spark timing. • The cyclic variations in P max was decreased by keeping it in a desired band. • Different controllers were used to adjust spark timing signal of the next cycle. • COV Pmax was decreased by about 15% by using GMV controller

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

Can MODIS detect trends in aerosol optical depth over land?

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Xuehua; Xia, Xiang'ao; Chen, Hongbin

2018-02-01

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite has been collecting valuable data about the Earth system for more than 14 years, and one of the benefits of this is that it has made it possible to detect the long-term variation in aerosol loading across the globe. However, the long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends derived from MODIS need careful validation and assessment, especially over land. Using AOD products with at least 70 months' worth of measurements collected during 2002-15 at 53 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites over land, Mann-Kendall (MK) trends in AOD were derived and taken as the ground truth data for evaluating the corresponding results from MODIS onboard Aqua. The results showed that the AERONET AOD trends over all sites in Europe and North America, as well as most sites in Africa and Asia, can be reproduced by MODIS/Aqua. However, disagreement in AOD trends between MODIS and AERONET was found at a few sites in Australia and South America. The AOD trends calculated from AERONET instantaneous data at the MODIS overpass times were consistent with those from AERONET daily data, which suggests that the AOD trends derived from satellite measurements of 1-2 overpasses may be representative of those from daily measurements.

Time and space variations of trophosherive carbon dioxide over Japan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanaka, M.; Nakazawa, T.; Aoki, S.

Aircraft measurements of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration over Japan, initiated in January 1979, have been continued to the present. The average seasonal variation of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ showed maximum concentration early in April and early in May, and minimum concentration in mid-August and mid-September for the lower-most and the upper-most layers of the troposphere, respectively. The peak-to-peak amplitudes of the seasonal variation were 14.5, 9.0 and 7.8 ppmv for the lower, middle and upper tropospheres, respectively. The average rate of annual increase of the CO/sub 2/ concentration over the last 6 years was about 1.3 ppmv yr/sup -1/ with considerable variation with time. The vertical profile of the annual mean value of the CO/sub 2/ concentration was almost the same from year to year; the CO/sub 2/ concentrations decreased gradually with height and the concentration difference between the lowest and highest layers of the troposphere was about 2 ppmv. (authors).

Time variations in geomagnetic intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Valet, Jean-Pierre

2003-03-01

After many years spent by paleomagnetists studying the directional behavior of the Earth's magnetic field at all possible timescales, detailed measurements of field intensity are now needed to document the variations of the entire vector and to analyze the time evolution of the field components. A significant step has been achieved by combining intensity records derived from archeological materials and from lava flows in order to extract the global field changes over the past 12 kyr. A second significant step was due to the emergence of coherent records of relative paleointensity using the remanent magnetization of sediments to retrace the evolution of the dipole field. A third step was the juxtaposition of these signals with those derived from cosmogenic isotopes. Contemporaneous with the acquisition of records, new techniques have been developed to constrain the geomagnetic origin of the signals. Much activity has also been devoted to improving the quality of determinations of absolute paleointensity from volcanic rocks with new materials, proper selection of samples, and investigations of complex changes in magnetization during laboratory experiments. Altogether these developments brought us from a situation where the field changes were restricted to the past 40 kyr to the emergence of a coherent picture of the changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment for at least the past 1 Myr. On longer timescales the field variability and its average behavior is relatively well documented for the past 400 Myr. Section 3 gives a summary of most methods and techniques that are presently used to track the field intensity changes in the past. In each case, current limits and potential promises are discussed. The section 4 describes the field variations measured so far over various timescales covered by the archeomagnetic and the paleomagnetic records. Preference has always been given to composite records and databases in order to extract and discuss major and global geomagnetic

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

2009-04-01

The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Standardised Resting Time Prior to Blood Sampling and Diurnal Variation Associated with Risk of Patient Misclassification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøgh Andersen, Ida; Brasen, Claus L.; Christensen, Henry

2015-01-01

.9×10-7) and sodium (p = 8.7×10-16). Only TSH and albumin were clinically significantly influenced by diurnal variation. Resting time had no clinically significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: We found no need for resting 15 minutes prior to blood sampling. However, diurnal variation was found to have a significant......BACKGROUND: According to current recommendations, blood samples should be taken in the morning after 15 minutes' resting time. Some components exhibit diurnal variation and in response to pressures to expand opening hours and reduce waiting time, the aims of this study were to investigate...... the impact of resting time prior to blood sampling and diurnal variation on biochemical components, including albumin, thyrotropin (TSH), total calcium and sodium in plasma. METHODS: All patients referred to an outpatient clinic for blood sampling were included in the period Nov 2011 until June 2014 (opening...

A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

2017-12-01

The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

2018-06-01

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Algebraic time-dependent variational approach to dynamical calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, S.; Rabitz, H.

1988-01-01

A set of time-dependent basis states is obtained with a group of unitary transformations generated by a Lie algebra. Applying the time-dependent variational principle to the trial function subspace constructed from the linear combination of the time-dependent basis states gives rise to a set of ''classical'' equations of motion for the group parameters and the expansion coefficients from which the time evolution of the system state can be determined. The formulation is developed for a general Lie algebra as well as for the commonly encountered algebra containing homogeneous polynominal products of the coordinate Q and momentum P operators (or equivalently the boson creation a/sup dagger/ and annihilation a operators) of order 0, 1, and 2. Explicit expressions for the transition amplitudes are derived by virtue of the cannonical transformation properties of the unitary transformation. The applicability of the present formalism in a variety of problems is implied by two illustrative examples: (a) a parametric amplifier; (b) the collinear collision of an atom with a Morse oscillator

Determining Time Variation of Cable Tension Forces in Suspended Bridges Using Time-Frequency Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gannon Stromquist-LeVoir

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A feasibility study was conducted to develop a novel method to determine the temporal changes of tensile forces in bridge suspender cables using time-frequency analysis of ambient vibration measurements. An analytical model of the suspender cables was developed to evaluate the power spectral density (PSD function of a cable with consideration of cable flexural stiffness. Discrete-time, short-time Fourier transform (STFT was utilized to analyze the recorded acceleration histories in both time and frequency domains. A mathematical convolution of the analytical PSD function and time-frequency data was completed to evaluate changes in cable tension force over time. The method was implemented using acceleration measurements collected from an in-service steel arch bridge with a suspended deck to calculate the temporal variation in cable forces from the vibration measurements. The observations served as proof of concept that the proposed method may be used for cable fatigue life calculations and bridge weigh-in-motion studies.

Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

2001-09-01

This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oldehinkel, AJ

This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

1986-01-01

Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

Current trend of annotating single nucleotide variation in humans--A case study on SNVrap.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Mulin Jun; Wang, Junwen

2015-06-01

As high throughput methods, such as whole genome genotyping arrays, whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), have detected huge amounts of genetic variants associated with human diseases, function annotation of these variants is an indispensable step in understanding disease etiology. Large-scale functional genomics projects, such as The ENCODE Project and Roadmap Epigenomics Project, provide genome-wide profiling of functional elements across different human cell types and tissues. With the urgent demands for identification of disease-causal variants, comprehensive and easy-to-use annotation tool is highly in demand. Here we review and discuss current progress and trend of the variant annotation field. Furthermore, we introduce a comprehensive web portal for annotating human genetic variants. We use gene-based features and the latest functional genomics datasets to annotate single nucleotide variation (SNVs) in human, at whole genome scale. We further apply several function prediction algorithms to annotate SNVs that might affect different biological processes, including transcriptional gene regulation, alternative splicing, post-transcriptional regulation, translation and post-translational modifications. The SNVrap web portal is freely available at http://jjwanglab.org/snvrap. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

2015-01-01

Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

Higher Education Earnings Premium: Value, Variation, and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Sandy

2014-01-01

Much of the current skepticism about the financial payoff of higher education emerges from recent media focus on young college graduates struggling to enter a weak labor market. This brief highlights some of the complexities underlying discussions of the return to the investment in postsecondary education and describes some of the variation in…

Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inga Earle

2005-11-01

Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

2016-01-01

for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

Time variation of fluorescence lifetime in enhanced cyan fluorescence protein

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Soonhyouk; Kim, Soo Yong; Park, Kyoungsook; Jeong, Jinyoung; Chung, Bong Hyun; Kim, Sok Won

2010-01-01

The lifetime variations of enhanced cyan fluorescence protein (ECFP) in relatively short integration time bins were studied via time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) measurement. We observed that minimum photon counts are necessary for the lifetime estimation to achieve a certain range of variance. The conditions to decrease the variance of lifetime were investigated and the channel width of the measurement of TCSPC data was found to be another important factor for the variance of lifetime. Though the lifetime of ECFP is best fit by a double exponential, a mono exponential fit for the same integration time is more stable. The results may be useful in the analysis of photophysical dynamics for ensemble molecules in short measurement time windows.

Handheld mechanical nociceptive threshold testing in dairy cows - intra-individual variation, inter-observer agreement and variation over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Raundal, Peter M; Andersen, Pia H; Toft, Nils; Forkman, Björn; Munksgaard, Lene; Herskin, Mette S

2014-11-01

To examine the use of handheld methodology to assess mechanical nociceptive threshold (MNT) on cows kept loose-housed. Prospective randomized partial cross-over experimental study. A one-factor (test day) design was used to evaluate MNT over time. One hundred and fifteen healthy, loose-housed Danish Holstein cattle. We evaluated intra-individual variation, inter-observer agreement and variation over time of MNT using two handheld devices and two stimulation sites. Mechanical, ramped stimulations were performed with an algometer (6.5 mm diameter steel probe, 0-10.0 kgf) or an electronic von Frey device (plastic tip with diameter 0.8 mm, 0-1000 gf). Each cow received 5-6 consecutive stimulations within a 2 × 5 cm skin area on the dorsal or lateral aspect of the left third metatarsus until an avoidance reaction occurred. We investigated the difference in precision [expressed as coefficient of variation (CV)] between the combinations of devices and stimulation sites. The inter-observer agreement and the difference in MNT between test day 1, 3, 7, 10 and 24 were investigated for selected combinations. Data were analysed in mixed models and Bland-Altman as relevant. The CVs did not differ [range 0.34-0.52 (p = 0.1)]. Difference between observers (95% limits) was 0.2 kgf (2.8) and 4 gf (369) for the algometer and von Frey device, respectively. Mechanical nociceptive threshold increased from 361 on test day one to 495 gf on test day 24 (p < 0.01). All methods showed a high degree of intra-individual variation, and no combination of device and stimulation site showed superior precision. Mean difference between observers was low, and MNT was not consistent over time. Further development of the methods is required before they can be used in research to investigate possible relations between claw lesions and hyperalgesia. © 2014 The Authors Veterinary Anaesthesia and Analgesia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association of Veterinary Anaesthetists and the

Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

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M. Mudelsee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ¹⁸O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ¹⁸O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

Developmental stage of strongyle eggs affects the outcome variations of real-time PCR analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ulla Vestergaard; Haakansson, I. T.; Roust, Tina

2013-01-01

extent developmental stages can affect the variation of diagnostic test results. This study investigated the influence of developmental stages of strongyle eggs on the variation real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results. Mixed species strongyle eggs were obtained from the faeces of a naturally...

Clasp/SJ Observation of Time Variations of Lyman-Alpha Emissions in a Solar Active Region

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikawa, S.; Kubo, M.; Katsukawa, Y.; Kano, R.; Narukage, N.; Ishikawa, R.; Bando, T.; Winebarger, A.; Kobayashi, K.; Trujillo Bueno, J.;

Running vacuum in the Universe and the time variation of the fundamental constants of Nature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritzsch, Harald [Nanyang Technological University, Institute for Advanced Study, Singapore (Singapore); Universitaet Muenchen, Physik-Department, Munich (Germany); Sola, Joan [Nanyang Technological University, Institute for Advanced Study, Singapore (Singapore); Universitat de Barcelona, Departament de Fisica Quantica i Astrofisica, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Universitat de Barcelona (ICCUB), Institute of Cosmos Sciences, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Nunes, Rafael C. [Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Dept. de Fisica, Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil)

2017-03-15

We compute the time variation of the fundamental constants (such as the ratio of the proton mass to the electron mass, the strong coupling constant, the fine-structure constant and Newton's constant) within the context of the so-called running vacuum models (RVMs) of the cosmic evolution. Recently, compelling evidence has been provided that these models are able to fit the main cosmological data (SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB) significantly better than the concordance ΛCDM model. Specifically, the vacuum parameters of the RVM (i.e. those responsible for the dynamics of the vacuum energy) prove to be nonzero at a confidence level >or similar 3σ. Here we use such remarkable status of the RVMs to make definite predictions on the cosmic time variation of the fundamental constants. It turns out that the predicted variations are close to the present observational limits. Furthermore, we find that the time evolution of the dark matter particle masses should be crucially involved in the total mass variation of our Universe. A positive measurement of this kind of effects could be interpreted as strong support to the ''micro-macro connection'' (viz. the dynamical feedback between the evolution of the cosmological parameters and the time variation of the fundamental constants of the microscopic world), previously proposed by two of us (HF and JS). (orig.)

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

Study of Track Irregularity Time Series Calibration and Variation Pattern at Unit Section

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaolong Jia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Focusing on problems existing in track irregularity time series data quality, this paper first presents abnormal data identification, data offset correction algorithm, local outlier data identification, and noise cancellation algorithms. And then proposes track irregularity time series decomposition and reconstruction through the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction approach. Finally, the patterns and features of track irregularity standard deviation data sequence in unit sections are studied, and the changing trend of track irregularity time series is discovered and described.

An explicit solution for a renewal process with waiting time and its variational principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewins, J.D.

2001-01-01

The forward and backward equations for the conditional probability density are derived for a reliability system consisting of a single component whose repair is subject to a delay time in providing a spare part but whose mean rate of repair is otherwise constant and whose time to failure is exponentially distributed. Exact solutions are quoted. These equations are then shown to be an adjoint pair that provide stationary conditions for a variational principle, in elementary form, from which all properties of the systems can be predicted with an accuracy greater than that implied by the trial functions or approximations used. A second or specific form of variational principle provides specific estimates to questions at hand. The second or adjoint field in the first elementary principle is the backward Kolmogorov solution and the in the specific form is the importance function, as used in nuclear reactor theory. The solutions are given for long-time and in a recurrence relation form valid for all times so that approximate solutions can be checked. Approximations suitable for variational trial functions are given. Two examples give the effect of a change of delay time for a steady state and an initial transient, respectively

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Dynamics of Gaussian Wigner functions derived from a time-dependent variational principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens Aage Poulsen

2017-11-01

Full Text Available By using a time-dependent variational principle formulated for Wigner phase-space functions, we obtain the optimal time-evolution for two classes of Gaussian Wigner functions, namely those of either thawed real-valued or frozen but complex Gaussians. It is shown that tunneling effects are approximately included in both schemes.

Seasonality and trend in blood lead levels of New York State children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talbot Thomas O

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Environmental exposure to lead remains a significant health problem for children. The costs of lead exposure in children are estimated to be considerably more than other childhood diseases of environmental origin. While long-term trends in blood lead levels (BLLs among children are declining, seasonal variation persists. Cross-sectional studies have found a peak in summer months. Part of this variation may be due to increased exposure to lead paint on window sills and through increased contact with soils containing lead during the summer. The current study represents the largest published population-based study on seasonality and trends in the BLLs of children to date. In addition, the results offer a comparison of recent data on seasonality of BLLs in New York State children, to studies conducted over the past three decades. Methods 262,687 New York State children born between 1994 and 1997 were screened for blood lead within 2 weeks of their first or second birthdays. Time series analyses of blood lead data from these children were conducted to study the seasonality and trends of BLLs. Results Children's blood lead values showed a distinct seasonal cycle on top of a long-term decreasing trend. The geometric mean BLL declined by about 24% for children born between 1994 and 1997. The prevalence of elevated BLLs in two-year-olds was almost twice that in one-year-olds over the time period. Nearly twice as many children had elevated BLLs in the late summer compared to late winter/early spring. In this and previous cross-sectional studies, the amount of seasonality as a proportion of the mean ranged between 15% and 30%. Conclusion Pediatricians should be aware of the seasonality of BLLs. For example, if a two-year-old receives a borderline result during the winter, it is possible that the levels would have been higher if he had been tested during the summer. However, physicians should continue to screen children at their normally

Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

2008-01-01

The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

Seasonal variation and trends in stroke hospitalizations and mortality in a South American community hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, Alejandro; Gerschcovich, Eliana Roldan; Díaz, Adriana A; Antía, Fabiana; Gonorazky, Sergio

2013-10-01

Numerous studies have reported the presence of temporal variations in biological processes. Seasonal variation (SV) in stroke has been widely studied, but little data have been published on this phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere, and there have been no studies reported from Argentina. The goals of the present study were to describe the SV of admissions and deaths for stroke and examine trends in stroke morbidity and mortality over a 3-year period in a community hospital in Argentina. Hospital discharge reports from the electronic database of vital statistics between 1999 and 2001 were examined retrospectively. Patients who had a main discharge diagnosis of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or cerebrovascular accident (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 431, 432, 434, and 436) were selected. The study sample included 1382 hospitalizations by stroke (3.5% of all admissions). In-hospital mortality demonstrated a winter peak (25.5% vs 17% in summer; P = .001). The crude seasonal stroke attack rate (ischemic and hemorrhagic) was highest in winter (164 per 100,000 population; 95% CI, 159-169 per 100,000) and lowest in summer (124 per 100,000; 95% CI, 120-127 per 100,000; P = .008). Stroke admissions followed a seasonal pattern, with a winter-spring predominance (P = .008). Our data indicate a clear SV in stroke deaths and admissions in this region of Argentina. The existence of SV in stroke raises a different hypothesis about the rationale of HF admissions and provides information for the organization of care and resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

2014-08-01

Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

Variations in automatically recorded rumination time as explained by variations in intake of dietary fractions and milk production, and between-cow variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Byskov, M V; Nadeau, E; Johansson, B E O; Nørgaard, P

2015-06-01

Individual recording of rumination time (RT) is now possible in commercial dairy herds, through development of a microphone-based sensor, which is able to record RT by the sound of rumination activity. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship between daily RT and intakes of different dietary fractions, the relationship between RT in minutes per kilogram of dry matter intake (DMI) and milk production, and to examine the variation in RT within and between mid-lactating dairy cows. Data from 3 production trials were used in which a total of 27 different diets were fed. The data contained 761, 290, and 203 daily recordings of RT, milk yield, milk components, DMI, and intake of dietary fractions recorded on 29, 26, and 24 Holstein and Swedish Red cows from trials 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The dietary fractions included forage neutral detergent fiber (NDF), concentrate NDF, crude protein, sugar, starch, and the remaining fraction represented by organic matter--(forage NDF+concentrate NDF+crude protein+sugar+starch). The relationship between the dietary fractions and RT was analyzed in 2 steps. In step 1, the dietary fractions, which were significantly related to RT, were selected and simultaneously checked for multicollinearity between the dietary components; in step 2, a multivariate model, including the effect of repeated measurements, the main effect of the selected dietary fractions from step 1, random effects of cow(trial) and trial, and information on breed, days in milk, and parity was used to analyze the relationship between RT and the selected dietary fractions. Relationships between RT in minutes per kilogram of DMI and milk yield and milk components were analyzed, using the same multivariate model as in step 2. Approximately 32% of the variation in daily RT could be explained by variations in intakes of the dietary fractions, whereas 48% of the total variation in RT was accounted for by individual variations between cows. Intakes of

Orbital period variations of two W UMa-type binaries: UY UMa and EF Boo

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yun-Xia; Zhang, Xu-Dong; Hu, Ke; Xiang, Fu-Yuan

2017-08-01

The orbital period variations of two W UMa-type contact binaries, UY UMa and EF Boo, are analyzed by using all available times of light minimum. It is detected that the general trends of their (O - C) curves show an upward parabolic variation, which reveals their continuous period increases at the rates of dP / dt = 2.545 ×10-7 days yr-1 and dP / dt = 2.623 ×10-7 days yr-1 , respectively. Meanwhile, UY UMa also shows a cyclic period variation with a small amplitude of A = 0.0026 days superposed on the long-term increase. Due to their contact configurations, the secular period increases are interpreted as a result of mass transfer from the less massive component to the more massive one. The cyclic period variation of UY UMa may be interpreted in terms of either the magnetic activity or the light time effect.

Time variations of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap: an update

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G. K. Rangarajan

1997-10-01

Full Text Available Kp and Ap indices covering the period 1932 to 1995 are analysed in a fashion similar to that attempted by Bartels for the 1932–1961 epoch to examine the time variations in their characteristics. Modern analysis techniques on the extended data base are used for further insight. The relative frequencies of occurrence of Kp with different magnitudes and the seasonal and solar cycle dependences are seen to be remarkably consistent despite the addition of 35 years of observations. Many of the earlier features seen in the indices and special intervals are shown to be replicated in the present analysis. Time variations in the occurrence of prolonged periods of geomagnetic calm or of enhanced activity are presented and their relation to solar activity highlighted. It is shown that in the declining phase the occurrence frequencies of Kp = 4–5 (consecutively over 4 intervals can be used as a precursor for the maximum sunspot number to be expected in the next cycle. The semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity is re-examined utilising not only the Ap index but also the occurrence frequencies of Kp index with different magnitudes. Lack of dependence of the amplitude of semi-annual variation on sunspot number is emphasised. Singular spectrum analysis of the mean monthly Ap index shows some distinct periodic components. The temporal evolution of ~44 month, ~21 month and ~16 month oscillations are examined and it is postulated that while QBO and the 16 month oscillations could be attributed to solar wind and IMF oscillations with analogous periodicity, the 44 month variation is associated with a similar periodicity in recurrent high speed stream caused by sector boundary passage. It is reconfirmed that there could have been only one epoch around 1940 when solar wind speed could have exhibited a 1.3-year periodicity comparable to that seen during the post-1986 period.

Time variations of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap: an update

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. K. Rangarajan

Full Text Available Kp and Ap indices covering the period 1932 to 1995 are analysed in a fashion similar to that attempted by Bartels for the 1932–1961 epoch to examine the time variations in their characteristics. Modern analysis techniques on the extended data base are used for further insight. The relative frequencies of occurrence of Kp with different magnitudes and the seasonal and solar cycle dependences are seen to be remarkably consistent despite the addition of 35 years of observations. Many of the earlier features seen in the indices and special intervals are shown to be replicated in the present analysis. Time variations in the occurrence of prolonged periods of geomagnetic calm or of enhanced activity are presented and their relation to solar activity highlighted. It is shown that in the declining phase the occurrence frequencies of Kp = 4–5 (consecutively over 4 intervals can be used as a precursor for the maximum sunspot number to be expected in the next cycle. The semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity is re-examined utilising not only the Ap index but also the occurrence frequencies of Kp index with different magnitudes. Lack of dependence of the amplitude of semi-annual variation on sunspot number is emphasised. Singular spectrum analysis of the mean monthly Ap index shows some distinct periodic components. The temporal evolution of ~44 month, ~21 month and ~16 month oscillations are examined and it is postulated that while QBO and the 16 month oscillations could be attributed to solar wind and IMF oscillations with analogous periodicity, the 44 month variation is associated with a similar periodicity in recurrent high speed stream caused by sector boundary passage. It is reconfirmed that there could have been only one epoch around 1940 when solar wind speed could have exhibited a 1.3-year periodicity comparable to that seen during the post-1986 period.

Time variations in the mechanical characteristics of local crustal segments according to seismic observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kocharyan, G. G.; Gamburtseva, N. G.; Sanina, I. A.; Danilova, T. V.; Nesterkina, M. A.; Gorbunova, E. M.; Ivanchenko, G. N.

2011-04-01

The results of the seismic observations made with two different experimental setups are presented. In the first case, the signals produced by underground nuclear explosions at the Semipalatinsk Test Site were measured on a linear profile, which allowed one to definitely outline the areas where the mechanical properties of rocks experienced considerable time variations. In the second case, the waves excited by the open-pit mine blasts recorded at a small-aperture seismic array at the Mikhnevo Geophysical Station (Institute of Geosphere Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences) on the East European Platform favored the estimation of variations in the integral characteristics of the seismic path. Measurements in aseismic regions characterized by diverse geological structure and different tectonic conditions revealed similar effects of the strong dependency of seismic parameters on the time of explosions. Here, the variations experienced by the maximum amplitudes of oscillations and irrelevant to seasonal changes or local conditions reached a factor of two. The generic periods of these variations including the distinct annual rhythm are probably the fragments of a lower-frequency process. The obtained results suggest that these variations are due to changes in the stressstrain state of active fault zones, which, in turn, can be associated with the macroscale motion of large blocks triggered by tidal strains, tectonic forces and, possibly, variations in the rate of the Earth's rotation.

Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

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Maryam Barzin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

Long-term and transient time variation of cosmic ray fluxes detected in Argentina by CARPET cosmic ray detector

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De Mendonça, R. R. S.; Raulin, J.-P.; Bertoni, F. C. P.; Echer, E.; Makhmutov, V. S.; Fernandez, G.

2011-07-01

We present results obtained at El Leoncito (CASLEO, San Juan, Argentina) with the CARPET charged particles detector installed in April 2006. The observed modulation of the cosmic ray flux is discussed as a function of its time variability and it is related to longer solar activity variations and to shorter variations during solar and geomagnetic transient activity. Short period (few minutes, few hours) cosmic ray modulation events are observed during rain time (precipitation) and significant variations of the atmospheric electric field. Complementary observations of the atmospheric electric field indicate that its time variations play an important role in the detected cosmic ray event.

Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, U.

2005-01-01

The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

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Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

2013-01-01

Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

Time series analyses of hydrological parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea

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Chung, Sang Yong; Senapathi, Venkatramanan; Sekar, Selvam; Kim, Tae Hyung

2018-02-01

Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.

Time Variations of Observed H α Line Profiles and Precipitation Depths of Nonthermal Electrons in a Solar Flare

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Falewicz, Robert; Radziszewski, Krzysztof; Rudawy, Paweł; Berlicki, Arkadiusz, E-mail: falewicz@astro.uni.wroc.pl, E-mail: radziszewski@astro.uni.wroc.pl, E-mail: rudawy@astro.uni.wroc.pl, E-mail: berlicki@astro.uni.wroc.pl [Astronomical Institute, University of Wrocław, 51-622 Wrocław, ul. Kopernika 11 (Poland)

2017-10-01

We compare time variations of the H α and X-ray emissions observed during the pre-impulsive and impulsive phases of the C1.1-class solar flare on 2013 June 21 with those of plasma parameters and synthesized X-ray emission from a 1D hydrodynamic numerical model of the flare. The numerical model was calculated assuming that the external energy is delivered to the flaring loop by nonthermal electrons (NTEs). The H α spectra and images were obtained using the Multi-channel Subtractive Double Pass spectrograph with a time resolution of 50 ms. The X-ray fluxes and spectra were recorded by RHESSI . Pre-flare geometric and thermodynamic parameters of the model and the delivered energy were estimated using RHESSI data. The time variations of the X-ray light curves in various energy bands and those of the H α intensities and line profiles were well correlated. The timescales of the observed variations agree with the calculated variations of the plasma parameters in the flaring loop footpoints, reflecting the time variations of the vertical extent of the energy deposition layer. Our result shows that the fast time variations of the H α emission of the flaring kernels can be explained by momentary changes of the deposited energy flux and the variations of the penetration depths of the NTEs.

Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

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Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

Handheld mechanical nociceptive threshold testing in dairy cows – intra-individual variation, inter-observer agreement and variation over time

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Raundal, Peter M; Andersen, Pia H; Toft, Nils; Forkman, Björn; Munksgaard, Lene; Herskin, Mette S

2014-01-01

Objective To examine the use of handheld methodology to assess mechanical nociceptive threshold (MNT) on cows kept loose-housed. Study design Prospective randomized partial cross-over experimental study. A one-factor (test day) design was used to evaluate MNT over time. Animals One hundred and fifteen healthy, loose-housed Danish Holstein cattle. Methods We evaluated intra-individual variation, inter-observer agreement and variation over time of MNT using two handheld devices and two stimulation sites. Mechanical, ramped stimulations were performed with an algometer (6.5 mm diameter steel probe, 0–10.0 kgf) or an electronic von Frey device (plastic tip with diameter 0.8 mm, 0–1000 gf). Each cow received 5–6 consecutive stimulations within a 2 × 5 cm skin area on the dorsal or lateral aspect of the left third metatarsus until an avoidance reaction occurred. We investigated the difference in precision [expressed as coefficient of variation (CV)] between the combinations of devices and stimulation sites. The inter-observer agreement and the difference in MNT between test day 1, 3, 7, 10 and 24 were investigated for selected combinations. Data were analysed in mixed models and Bland-Altman as relevant. Results The CVs did not differ [range 0.34–0.52 (p = 0.1)]. Difference between observers (95% limits) was 0.2 kgf (2.8) and 4 gf (369) for the algometer and von Frey device, respectively. Mechanical nociceptive threshold increased from 361 on test day one to 495 gf on test day 24 (p < 0.01). Conclusion and clinical relevance All methods showed a high degree of intra-individual variation, and no combination of device and stimulation site showed superior precision. Mean difference between observers was low, and MNT was not consistent over time. Further development of the methods is required before they can be used in research to investigate possible relations between claw lesions and hyperalgesia. PMID:24734991

Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

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Kun Wang

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

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Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

Variation in the timing of reproduction of the four-striped field mouse ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Variation in the timing of reproduction of the four-striped field mouse, Rhabdomys pumilio , in ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... We used the four-striped field mouse, Rhabdomys pumilio (Sparrmann, 1784), to test the hypothesis that ...

Temporal variation of clear-water scour at compound Abutments

OpenAIRE

Aminuddin Ab. Ghani; Reza Mohammadpour

2016-01-01

Most of actual abutments in rivers are built on foundation, while there is limited number of study available on the effects of the foundation on the local scour. In this study, temporal variation of local scour around compound abutment was investigated experimentally under clear-water conditions. The results showed that a suitable level of foundation is able to decrease the scour depth and increase scour time during the flood events. The trend of temporal scour depth at compound pier and abut...

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

Time trends in the incidence of work-related mental ill-health and musculoskeletal disorders in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Carder, Melanie; McNamee, Roseanne; Turner, Susan; Hodgson, John Timothy; Holland, Fiona; Agius, Raymond M

2013-05-01

To determine UK trends (from 1996 to 2009) in incidence of work-related mental ill-health and musculoskeletal disorders, for all industry as well as for health and social care employees. Second, to investigate whether there may have been a recent shift from a physical to psychological perspective in how patients present their illness by comparing reporting trends for back pain and 'other work stress'. Multilevel models were used to investigate changes in incidence of work-related illness, as diagnosed by specialist physicians. The dependent variable comprised case reports to The Health and Occupation Research network. Comparisons were made between medical specialties, industry (health and social care vs all other employees), gender and diagnosis. Trends for Occupational Physicians' (OP) reporting mental ill-health (average annual increase +3.7% (95% CI +2.2% to +5.2%)) differed significantly (phealth and social care employees. A fall in incidence of musculoskeletal disorders for OPs of -5.8% (95% CI -7.3% to -4.3%) and rheumatologists' reporting -6.6% (95% CI -8.3% to -4.8%) was found, with little variation by gender or industry. Within health and social care, an increase in incidence of 'other work stress' was accompanied by a similar decrease in 'spine/back pain'. The evidence presented is consistent with a shift in the presentation of ill-health from a physical to psychological perspective, although changes in hazards, prevention measures and physician awareness should also be considered as explanations.

Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

OpenAIRE

Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

2017-01-01

Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

Factors affecting yearly variations of indoor radon concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steck, D.J.; Baynes, S.A.

1996-01-01

Since indoor radon exposures take place over many years while radon measurement periods are shorter, we are studying the yearly variation of indoor radon concentrations in approximately 100 houses located throughout Minnesota. Most houses were initially measured for one or more years in the late 1980's and for 5 consecutive years starting in 1990. Two houses have been monitored for 12 y. Each year, two alpha track detectors were placed on the two lowest livable levels. The year-to-year variations averaged about 35% (corrected for instrumental uncertainties) in both basements and first floors. The minimum observed variation was 5% and the maximum was 130%. Some homes have shown substantial variation associated with Structural modifications. While most homes show no obvious systematic trends, a few houses have shown temporal trends that may be associated with aging or climate. We are studying possible correlation between year-to-year radon variation, climatic variables (yearly-average and seasonal such as heating/cooling degree days, precipitation, soil moisture), and structural changes

Climatic variations, trends and drought frequency in Dejen District ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... and expected to increase in the future. This implies that the country specifically the study area whose mainstay depends on agriculture must cope with further warming, low, and erratic rainfall, and frequent climatic extremes. Keywords: Climate change, drought frequency, standardized precipitation index, rainfall variations ...

Novel crystal timing calibration method based on total variation

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xingjian; Isobe, Takashi; Watanabe, Mitsuo; Liu, Huafeng

2016-11-01

A novel crystal timing calibration method based on total variation (TV), abbreviated as ‘TV merge’, has been developed for a high-resolution positron emission tomography (PET) system. The proposed method was developed for a system with a large number of crystals, it can provide timing calibration at the crystal level. In the proposed method, the timing calibration process was formulated as a linear problem. To robustly optimize the timing resolution, a TV constraint was added to the linear equation. Moreover, to solve the computer memory problem associated with the calculation of the timing calibration factors for systems with a large number of crystals, the merge component was used for obtaining the crystal level timing calibration values. Compared with other conventional methods, the data measured from a standard cylindrical phantom filled with a radioisotope solution was sufficient for performing a high-precision crystal-level timing calibration. In this paper, both simulation and experimental studies were performed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the TV merge method. We compare the timing resolutions of a 22Na point source, which was located in the field of view (FOV) of the brain PET system, with various calibration techniques. After implementing the TV merge method, the timing resolution improved from 3.34 ns at full width at half maximum (FWHM) to 2.31 ns FWHM.

Effects of diurnal adjustment on biases and trends derived from inter-sensor calibrated AMSU-A data

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, H.; Zou, X.; Qin, Z.

2018-03-01

Measurements of brightness temperatures from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) temperature sounding instruments onboard NOAA Polarorbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) have been extensively used for studying atmospheric temperature trends over the past several decades. Intersensor biases, orbital drifts and diurnal variations of atmospheric and surface temperatures must be considered before using a merged long-term time series of AMSU-A measurements from NOAA-15, -18, -19 and MetOp-A.We study the impacts of the orbital drift and orbital differences of local equator crossing times (LECTs) on temperature trends derivable from AMSU-A using near-nadir observations from NOAA-15, NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A during 1998-2014 over the Amazon rainforest. The double difference method is firstly applied to estimation of inter-sensor biases between any two satellites during their overlapping time period. The inter-calibrated observations are then used to generate a monthly mean diurnal cycle of brightness temperature for each AMSU-A channel. A diurnal correction is finally applied each channel to obtain AMSU-A data valid at the same local time. Impacts of the inter-sensor bias correction and diurnal correction on the AMSU-A derived long-term atmospheric temperature trends are separately quantified and compared with those derived from original data. It is shown that the orbital drift and differences of LECTamong different POESs induce a large uncertainty in AMSU-A derived long-term warming/cooling trends. After applying an inter-sensor bias correction and a diurnal correction, the warming trends at different local times, which are approximately the same, are smaller by half than the trends derived without applying these corrections.

Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-07-01

The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

Decadal stream water quality trends under varying climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in, Iowa, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Christopher; Bekins, Barbara; Kalkhoff, Stephen; Hirsch, Robert; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee

2015-04-01

Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agricultural practices and climatic variations is important for improving water quality in agricultural settings. In the central United States, intensification of corn cropping in support of ethanol production led to increases in N application rates in the 2000s during a period including both extreme dry and wet conditions. To examine the effect of these recent changes, a study was conducted on surface water quality in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Long term (~20 to 30 years) water quality and flow data were analyzed with Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS), a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals decadal trends that are independent of random variations of stream flow from seasonal averages. Trends of surface water quality showed constant or decreasing flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low streamflow discharge in the 2000's and to the long (e.g. 8-year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of surface water nitrate and depletion of stored nitrate may occur in years with very high discharge. Limited transport of N to streams and accumulation of stored N may occur in years with very low discharge. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in concentrations, likely because extensive tile-drains limit the effective volumes for storage of N and reduce residence times, and because the glacial sediments in these basins promote denitrification. Changes in nitrogen fluxes resulting from ethanol production and other factors will likely be delayed for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central

The farming population in Ireland: mortality trends during the 'Celtic Tiger' years.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Smyth, Breda

2012-03-21

Background Although the Irish farming population is a significant occupational group, analysis of their mortality patterns is limited. This study compared mortality trends with other occupational groups and assessed the impact of socio-economic factors. Methods Population and mortality data (2000-06) were obtained to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) by cause of death and matched with socio-economic data. The extent to which variation in mortality was explained by variations in the socio-economic data was determined using multiple regression. Results Farmers and agricultural workers experienced the highest levels of mortality for all causes of death (2000-06). Farmers are 5.14 times more likely and agricultural workers are 7.35 times more likely to die from any cause of death than the lowest risk group. Circulatory disease is a significant cause of mortality among farmers [SMR = 215.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 201.83-229.98]. Other significant causes include cancers (SMR = 156.60, CI = 146.73-166.48) and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 149.69, CI = 135.44-163.93). Agricultural workers have similar mortality trends: circulatory disease (SMR = 226.27; CI = 192.45-260.08), cancers (SMR = 221.44; CI = 193.88-249.00), and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 353.90; CI = 302.48-405.32). From 2000 to 2006, SMRs increased incrementally. Multiple regression identified farm size and income poverty risk as predictors of mortality. Conclusion Irish farmers and agricultural workers have experienced a reversal of mortality trends compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Policies should target them as a high-risk group.

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

Science.gov (United States)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

Oscillation effects and time variation of the supernova neutrino signal

Science.gov (United States)

Kneller, James P.; McLaughlin, Gail C.; Brockman, Justin

2008-02-01

The neutrinos detected from the next galactic core-collapse supernova will contain valuable information on the internal dynamics of the explosion. One mechanism leading to a temporal evolution of the neutrino signal is the variation of the induced neutrino flavor mixing driven by changes in the density profile. With one and two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations we identify the behavior and properties of prominent features of the explosion. Using these results we demonstrate the time variation of the neutrino crossing probabilities due to changes in the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) neutrino transformations as the star explodes by using the S-matrix—Monte Carlo—approach to neutrino propagation. After adopting spectra for the neutrinos emitted from the proto-neutron star we calculate for a galactic supernova the evolution of the positron spectra within a water Cerenkov detector and find that this signal allows us to probe of a number of explosion features.

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Deckert, Andreas; Winkler, Volker; Paltiel, Ari; Razum, Oliver; Becher, Heiko

2010-08-17

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0%) and Russia (-0.6%). The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

Trends in Job Quality during the Great Recession

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erhel, Christine; Guergoat-Larivière, Mathilde; Leschke, Janine

and country-level characteristics (institutions and business-cycle indicators) to a possible deterioration in job quality. It shows that some socio-economic groups are more affected by decreasing trends in job quality (other things being equal), especially youth, older workers and low-educated workers. Women......This paper focuses on the consequences of the crisis on job quality in Europe. Its aim is twofold: first, to identify trends in job quality in the EU during the 2007-2009 crisis; secondly, to explore the link between these trends and cyclical as well as institutional factors. It relies on European...... seem less affected by these negative trends than men but are more likely than men to become unemployed or inactive over the period. Cross-country heterogeneity in job quality trends can be related to economic trends (unemployment variation) and, to a minor extent, to the employment distribution...

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subanar Subanar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

2015-11-01

To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variation in survival of European children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, diagnosed in 1978-1992 : the EUROCARE study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coebergh, JW; Pastore, G; Gatta, G; Corazziari, [No Value; Kamps, W

The aim of this study was to provide a comparative description of geographical variations and time trends in the population-based survival of European children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Data on 13 344 newly diagnosed children (0-14 years) with ALL were included in the EUROCARE study

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature

Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

Science.gov (United States)

de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

2012-08-01

To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

Controlling cyclic combustion timing variations using a symbol-statistics predictive approach in an HCCI engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghazimirsaied, Ahmad; Koch, Charles Robert

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Misfire reduction in a combustion engine based on chaotic theory methods. ► Chaotic theory analysis of cyclic variation of a HCCI engine near misfire. ► Symbol sequence approach is used to predict ignition timing one cycle-ahead. ► Prediction is combined with feedback control to lower HCCI combustion variation. ► Feedback control extends the HCCI operating range into the misfire region. -- Abstract: Cyclic variation of a Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine near misfire is analyzed using chaotic theory methods and feedback control is used to stabilize high cyclic variations. Variation of consecutive cycles of θ Pmax (the crank angle of maximum cylinder pressure over an engine cycle) for a Primary Reference Fuel engine is analyzed near misfire operation for five test points with similar conditions but different octane numbers. The return map of the time series of θ Pmax at each combustion cycle reveals the deterministic and random portions of the dynamics near misfire for this HCCI engine. A symbol-statistic approach is used to predict θ Pmax one cycle-ahead. Predicted θ Pmax has similar dynamical behavior to the experimental measurements. Based on this cycle ahead prediction, and using fuel octane as the input, feedback control is used to stabilize the instability of θ Pmax variations at this engine condition near misfire.

Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

What is hiding behind ontogenic d13C variations in mollusk shells: New insights from scallops.

Science.gov (United States)

Chauvaud, L.; Lorrain, A.; Gillikin, D. P.; Thebault, J.; Paulet, Y.; Strand, O.; Blamart, D.; Guarini, J.; Clavier, J.

2008-12-01

We examined d13Ccalcite variations along scallop shells (Pecten maximus) sampled in Norway, France and Spain. Time series of shell calcite d13C show a consistent pattern of decreasing d13C with age. This almost linear d13C trend reflects an increasing contribution of metabolic CO2 to skeletal carbonate throughout ontogeny. We have removed this ontogenic trend to try to extract other information from our shell calcite d13C dataset. Scallops from the Bay of Brest (western Brittany, France) were then used to interpret the data as many environmental parameters were available for this site. d13Ccalcite variations were compared to d13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and Chl a. The detrended calcite d13C profiles seem to follow a seasonal pattern, but surprisingly are inversely related to the d13C DIC and chlorophyll a concentrations measured within the water column. Theses results suggest that shell d13C variations are not controlled by isotopic variation of DIC. Since scallops eat phytoplankton and microphytobenthos cells, and, as a consequence respire organic mater largely depleted in 13C, we therefore suggest that in mollusk suspension feeders the shell d13Ccalcite might still be used to track the annual number of phytoplankton blooms when d13C values of calcite are detrended. We must consider this trend as a potential biological filter hiding precious environmental records.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Storm time variation of radiative cooling of thermosphere by nitric oxide emission

Science.gov (United States)

Krishna, M. V. Sunil; Bag, Tikemani; Bharti, Gaurav

2016-07-01

The fundamental vibration-rotation band emission (Δν=1, Δ j=0,± 1) by nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 µm is one of the most important cooling mechanisms in thermosphere. The collisional vibrational excitation of NO(ν=0) by impact with atomic oxygen is the main source of vibrationally excited nitric oxide. The variation of NO density depends on latitude, longitude and season. The present study aims to understand how the radiative flux gets influenced by the severe geomagnetic storm conditions. The variation of Nitric Oxide (NO) radiative flux exiting thermosphere is studied during the superstorm event of 7-12 November, 2004. The observations of TIMED/SABER suggest a strong anti-correlation with the O/N_2 ratio observed by GUVI during the same period. On a global scale the NO radiative flux showed an enhancement during the main phase on 8 November, 2004, whereas maximum depletion in O/N_2 is observed on 10 November, 2004. Both O/N_2 and NO radiative flux were found to propagate equatorward due to the effect of meridional wind resulting from joule and particle heating in polar region. Larger penetrations is observed in western longitude sectors. These observed variations are effectively connected to the variations in neutral densities. In the equatorial sectors, O/N_2 shows enhancement but almost no variation in radiative flux is observed. The possible reasons for the observed variations in NO radiative emission and O/N_2 ratios are discussed in the light of equator ward increase in the densities and prompt penetration.

Simple model of variation of the signature of a space-time metric

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konstantinov, M.Yu.

2004-01-01

The problem on the changes in the space-time signature metrics is discussed. The simple model, wherein the space-time metrics signature is determined by the nonlinear scalar field, is proposed. It is shown that both classical and quantum description of changes in the metrics signature is possible within the frames of the considered model; the most characteristic peculiarities and variations of the classical and quantum descriptions are also briefly noted [ru

Time Variations of Macrostickies and Extractable Stickies Concentrations in Deinking

OpenAIRE

MacNeil, Donald; Miranda Carreño, Rubén; Monte Lara, María Concepción; Blanco Suárez, Ángeles; Sundberg, Anna

2010-01-01

The stickies content, both macrostickies and stickies extractable in a solvent, was determined for samples taken at short time intervals from deinking lines, producing deinked pulp for newsprint production. The study was carried out at three mills on different continents, with each having a different source of recycled paper as raw material. The short-term variations in extractable stickies in the incoming raw material were quite extreme, with differences of 100% being seen within hours. Desp...

Time variations of macro and extractable stickies concentrations in deinking

OpenAIRE

McNeil, Donald; Miranda Carreño, Rubén; Concepción Lara, María Concepción; Blanco Suárez, Ángeles; Sundberg, Anna

2010-01-01

The stickies content, both macrostickies and stickies extractable in a solvent, was determined for samples taken at short time intervals from deinking lines producing deinked pulp for newsprint production. The study was carried out at three mills on different continents, with each having a different source of recycled paper as raw material. The short-term variations in extractable stickies in the incoming raw material were quite extreme, with differences of 100% being seen within hours. Despi...

Time variations of the angular momentum of the sun

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schatten, K.H.

1977-01-01

Time variations of density models of the Sun are investigated. This is an attempt to estimate the changing moment of inertia of the Sun in order to calculate the internal solar angular velocity based upon Newton's equation of motion. Previous estimates of dI/dt disagree with those based upon central densities in a homologously contracting model. It is shown that the homologously contracting model leads to large errors in dI/dt. Based upon an integration of Sears's solar model, dI/dt=-5.5 x 10 34 gm cm 2 s -1 . This suggests a core angular velocity of /sub thetar-italic/ = (0.15 +- 0.03) x 10 -3 s -1 , corresponding to a period of 0.5 +- 0.1 days, assuming a constant angular velocity with time. The brackets indicate a weighting which is discussed

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

1993-01-01

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

Variation in aluminium patch test reactivity over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Siemund, Ingrid; Mowitz, Martin; Zimerson, Erik; Bruze, Magnus; Hindsén, Monica

2017-11-01

Contact allergy to aluminium has been reported more frequently in recent years. It has been pointed out that positive patch test reactions to aluminium may not be reproducible on retesting. To investigate possible variations in patch test reactivity to aluminium over time. Twenty-one adults, who had previously reacted positively to aluminium, were patch tested with equimolar dilution series in pet. of aluminium chloride hexahydrate and aluminium lactate, four times over a period of 8 months. Thirty-six of 84 (43%) serial dilution tests with aluminium chloride hexahydrate and 49 of 84 (58%) serial dilution tests with aluminium lactate gave negative results. The range of reactivity varied between a negative reaction to aluminium chloride hexahydrate at 10% and/or to aluminium lactate at 12%, and a positive reaction to aluminium chloride hexahydrate at 0.1% and/or to aluminium lactate at 0.12%. The highest individual difference in test reactivity noticed was 320-fold when the two most divergent minimal eliciting concentrations were compared. The patch test reactivity to aluminium varies over time. Aluminium-allergic individuals may have false-negative reactions. Therefore, retesting with aluminium should be considered when there is a strong suspicion of aluminium contact allergy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sea-level Variation Along the Suez Canal

Science.gov (United States)

Eid, F. M.; Sharaf El-Din, S. H.; Alam El-Din, K. A.

1997-05-01

The variation of sea level at 11 stations distributed along the Suez Canal was studied during the period from 1980 to 1986. The ranges of variation in daily mean sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik are about 60 and 120 cm, respectively. The minimum range of daily variation is at Kantara (47 cm). The fluctuations of the monthly mean sea level between the two ends of the Suez Canal vary from one season to another. From July to December, the sea level at Port Said is higher than that at Port Tawfik, with the maximum difference (10·5 cm) in September. During the rest of the year, the mean sea level at Port Tawfik is higher than that at Port Said, with the maximum difference (31·5 cm) in March. The long-term variations of the annual mean sea level at both Port Said and Port Tawfik for the period from 1923 to 1986 showed a positive trend. The sea level at Port Said increased by about 27·8 cm century -1while it increased by only 9·1 cm century -1at Port Tawfik. This indicates that the difference between sea level at Port Said and Port Tawfik has decreased with time.

Practice Trends in the Use of Extracorporeal Treatments for Poisoning in Four Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghannoum, Marc; Lavergne, Valery; Gosselin, Sophie

2016-01-01

Extracorporeal treatments (ECTRs) such as hemodialysis (HD), enhance the elimination of a small number of toxins. Changes in overdose trends, prescribing practices, antidotes, and dialysis techniques may alter the indications and rates of ECTR use over time. This study analyzed trends in ECTR...... for poisonings in four countries. A retrospective study of national poison center databases from the United States, Denmark, United Kingdom, and five regional databases within Canada was performed. All cases of patients receiving an ECTR were included. ECTR cases were totalled annually and reported as annual......; Denmark, salicylates. A high number of ECTRs were performed for atypical toxins such as acetaminophen and benzodiazepines. These data demonstrate a growing use of HD for poisoning with significant regional variations in the overall rates and indications....

Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

2014-01-01

AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

Arresting Strategy Based on Dynamic Criminal Networks Changing over Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junqing Yuan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate a sequence of dynamic criminal networks on a time series based on the dynamic network analysis (DNA. According to the change of networks’ structure, networks’ variation trend is analyzed to forecast its future structure. Finally, an optimal arresting time and priority list are designed based on our analysis. Better results can be expected than that based on social network analysis (SNA.

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deckert Andreas

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. Methods We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Results Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0% and Russia (-0.6%. Conclusions The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

Solvent effects in time-dependent self-consistent field methods. II. Variational formulations and analytical gradients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjorgaard, J. A.; Velizhanin, K. A.; Tretiak, S.

2015-01-01

This study describes variational energy expressions and analytical excited state energy gradients for time-dependent self-consistent field methods with polarizable solvent effects. Linear response, vertical excitation, and state-specific solventmodels are examined. Enforcing a variational ground stateenergy expression in the state-specific model is found to reduce it to the vertical excitation model. Variational excited state energy expressions are then provided for the linear response and vertical excitation models and analytical gradients are formulated. Using semiempiricalmodel chemistry, the variational expressions are verified by numerical and analytical differentiation with respect to a static external electric field. Lastly, analytical gradients are further tested by performing microcanonical excited state molecular dynamics with p-nitroaniline

Temporal and spatial variations of travel-time residuals in central California for Novaya Zemlya events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, R.; Iyer, H.M.

1976-01-01

Eight large nuclear explosions in Novaya Zemlya from October 1969 through November 1974 were used to monitor long-term variations in crustal seismic velocity near the San Andreas fault in central California. Relative P-wave travel-time residuals appear to be accurate to approximately +-0.1 sec. Of the over 100 stations used, none show clearly significant temporal variations in residual greater than this amount, corresponding to about a 4 percent change in velocity in the upper crust. Average relative residuals at individual stations show a large spatial variation of about 1.5 sec. These variations reflect both a complex crustal geology and changes in crustal thickness and provide a potentially powerful tool for studying crustal structure

Extracting a robust U.S. business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Creal, D.D.

2010-01-01

We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In particular, we

[Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

Science.gov (United States)

Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

2015-06-01

This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

New constraints on time-dependent variations of fundamental constants using Planck data

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Luke; Chluba, Jens

2018-02-01

Observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) today allow us to answer detailed questions about the properties of our Universe, targeting both standard and non-standard physics. In this paper, we study the effects of varying fundamental constants (i.e. the fine-structure constant, αEM, and electron rest mass, me) around last scattering using the recombination codes COSMOREC and RECFAST++. We approach the problem in a pedagogical manner, illustrating the importance of various effects on the free electron fraction, Thomson visibility function and CMB power spectra, highlighting various degeneracies. We demonstrate that the simpler RECFAST++ treatment (based on a three-level atom approach) can be used to accurately represent the full computation of COSMOREC. We also include explicit time-dependent variations using a phenomenological power-law description. We reproduce previous Planck 2013 results in our analysis. Assuming constant variations relative to the standard values, we find the improved constraints αEM/αEM, 0 = 0.9993 ± 0.0025 (CMB only) and me/me, 0 = 1.0039 ± 0.0074 (including BAO) using Planck 2015 data. For a redshift-dependent variation, αEM(z) = αEM(z0) [(1 + z)/1100]p with αEM(z0) ≡ αEM, 0 at z0 = 1100, we obtain p = 0.0008 ± 0.0025. Allowing simultaneous variations of αEM(z0) and p yields αEM(z0)/αEM, 0 = 0.9998 ± 0.0036 and p = 0.0006 ± 0.0036. We also discuss combined limits on αEM and me. Our analysis shows that existing data are not only sensitive to the value of the fundamental constants around recombination but also its first time derivative. This suggests that a wider class of varying fundamental constant models can be probed using the CMB.

Secular variations of radon in metropolitan Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghomshei, M.M.; Slawson, W.F.

1990-01-01

In this paper sampling of radon within the soil from three sites in metropolitan Vancouver is reported. Alpha trace bi-weekly measurements during a period of 4 years show secular variations with a period of 8-15 months. There are low-radon and high-radon episodes enduring several months to a year. Average radon level during the high-radon episodes reaches 5-10 times that of the low-radon periods. During high-radon episodes the high-frequency variations show very high amplitudes. After filtering of the high-frequency fluctuations, the data from different sites demonstrate remarkably similar trends. It is suggested that along with hydrogeological events, stress relaxation in rocks, earthquake, and magma emplacement may contribute to the sources of secular variations of radon. Because of long-term variations, radon level in urban areas should be monitored on a continuous basis. Single measurements, even those integrating radiation over a period of few months, may sample a low-radon episode, and provide a false assurance, or occur during a high-radon episode and give a false alarm

Benchmarking the stochastic time-dependent variational approach for excitation dynamics in molecular aggregates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chorošajev, Vladimir [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Gelzinis, Andrius; Valkunas, Leonas [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Department of Molecular Compound Physics, Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Sauletekio 3, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Abramavicius, Darius, E-mail: darius.abramavicius@ff.vu.lt [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania)

2016-12-20

Highlights: • The Davydov ansatze can be used for finite temperature simulations with an extension. • The accuracy is high if the system is strongly coupled to the environmental phonons. • The approach can simulate time-resolved fluorescence spectra. - Abstract: Time dependent variational approach is a convenient method to characterize the excitation dynamics in molecular aggregates for different strengths of system-bath interaction a, which does not require any additional perturbative schemes. Until recently, however, this method was only applicable in zero temperature case. It has become possible to extend this method for finite temperatures with the introduction of stochastic time dependent variational approach. Here we present a comparison between this approach and the exact hierarchical equations of motion approach for describing excitation dynamics in a broad range of temperatures. We calculate electronic population evolution, absorption and auxiliary time resolved fluorescence spectra in different regimes and find that the stochastic approach shows excellent agreement with the exact approach when the system-bath coupling is sufficiently large and temperatures are high. The differences between the two methods are larger, when temperatures are lower or the system-bath coupling is small.

Variation in computer time with geometry prescription in monte carlo code KENO-IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopalakrishnan, C.R.

1988-01-01

In most studies, the Monte Carlo criticality code KENO-IV has been compared with other Monte Carlo codes, but evaluation of its performance with different box descriptions has not been done so far. In Monte Carlo computations, any fractional savings of computing time is highly desirable. Variation in computation time with box description in KENO for two different fast reactor fuel subassemblies of FBTR and PFBR is studied. The K eff of an infinite array of fuel subassemblies is calculated by modelling the subassemblies in two different ways (i) multi-region, (ii) multi-box. In addition to these two cases, excess reactivity calculations of FBTR are also performed in two ways to study this effect in a complex geometry. It is observed that the K eff values calculated by multi-region and multi-box models agree very well. However the increase in computation time from the multi-box to the multi-region is considerable, while the difference in computer storage requirements for the two models is negligible. This variation in computing time arises from the way the neutron is tracked in the two cases. (author)

Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

2015-05-01

Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Dynamics of the sub-Ohmic spin-boson model: A time-dependent variational study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Ning; Duan Liwei; Zhao Yang; Li Xin

2013-01-01

The Dirac-Frenkel time-dependent variation is employed to probe the dynamics of the zero temperature sub-Ohmic spin-boson model with strong friction utilizing the Davydov D 1 ansatz. It is shown that initial conditions of the phonon bath have considerable influence on the dynamics. Counterintuitively, even in the very strong coupling regime, quantum coherence features still manage to survive under the polarized bath initial condition, while such features are absent under the factorized bath initial condition. In addition, a coherent-incoherent transition is found at a critical coupling strength α≈ 0.1 for s= 0.25 under the factorized bath initial condition. We quantify how faithfully our ansatz follows the Schrödinger equation, finding that the time-dependent variational approach is robust for strong dissipation and deep sub-Ohmic baths (s≪ 1).

Study of time variation of terrestrial gamma radiation due to depth distribution of soil moisture content

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshioka, Katsuhiro

1994-01-01

An empirical equation was deduced from studies of time variations of terrestrial gamma exposure rate and soil moisture content with depth distribution in the surface layer. It was definitely suggested that the variation of terrestrial gamma exposure rate is most strongly influenced by the change of soil moisture content at 5 cm depth. The seasonal variation with a relative maximum in early autumn and a relative minimum in early spring was clearly obtained in the consequence of long time measurements of terrestrial gamma exposure rate and degree of soil dryness. The diurnal change and phase difference due to the effect of depth were also obtained in the dynamic characteristics of soil moisture content at 3 different depths. From the comparison between measured terrestrial gamma exposure rate and that evaluated from soil moisture content using the empirical equation, it was seen that seasonal variations of the both agreed fairly well as a whole. (author)

Co-gradient variation in growth rate and development time of a broadly distributed butterfly.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madeleine Barton

Full Text Available Widespread species often show geographic variation in thermally-sensitive traits, providing insight into how species respond to shifts in temperature through time. Such patterns may arise from phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, or their interaction. In some cases, the effects of genotype and temperature may act together to reduce, or to exacerbate, phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits across varying thermal environments. We find evidence for such interactions in life-history traits of Heteronympha merope, a butterfly distributed across a broad latitudinal gradient in south-eastern Australia. We show that body size in this butterfly is negatively related to developmental temperature in the laboratory, in accordance with the temperature-size rule, but not in the field, despite very strong temperature gradients. A common garden experiment on larval thermal responses, spanning the environmental extremes of H. merope's distribution, revealed that butterflies from low latitude (warmer climate populations have relatively fast intrinsic growth and development rates compared to those from cooler climates. These synergistic effects of genotype and temperature across the landscape (co-gradient variation are likely to accentuate phenotypic variation in these traits, and this interaction must be accounted for when predicting how H. merope will respond to temperature change through time. These results highlight the importance of understanding how variation in life-history traits may arise in response to environmental change. Without this knowledge, we may fail to detect whether organisms are tracking environmental change, and if they are, whether it is by plasticity, adaptation or both.

Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of ChinaLijun Wang1, Fuqiang Tian1*, Hongchang Hu11State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,Abstracts: During the past 50 years, runoff from the major watersheds in China has demonstrated a decrease trend. The variations in the amount of precipitation will directly influence the runoff, however in some parts of China, it is also found that there is huge variations in the amount of runoff whereas the amount of precipitation has not shown such variations. In the same time, the intensity and duration of rainfall has changed a lot. Therefore, it is important to categorize the different trends of runoff and to identify the major factors responsible for these changes. In this study, we have collected the data of 200 different locations from 8 major watersheds of China. By comparing and analyzing the daily precipitation and the daily runoff data, we have found some significant changes in runoff coefficients between two periods (1979-1988 and 2006-2014). On the basis of this, the further study will be carried out which identify that how the climate change influences the two major components of runoff, baseflow and stormflow. The impact of anthropogenic activity in the study area could not be ignored and it is important to know whether human action and climate change is the main factors for the decline of waterflow in river and how these factors influence the river water.

Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benoit Parmentier

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

Temporal variation in bat-fruit interactions: Foraging strategies influence network structure over time

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata-Mesa, Natalya; Montoya-Bustamante, Sebastián; Murillo-García, Oscar E.

2017-11-01

Mutualistic interactions, such as seed dispersal, are important for the maintenance of structure and stability of tropical communities. However, there is a lack of information about spatial and temporal variation in plant-animal interaction networks. Thus, our goal was to assess the effect of bat's foraging strategies on temporal variation in the structure and robustness of bat-fruit networks in both a dry and a rain tropical forest. We evaluated monthly variation in bat-fruit networks by using seven structure metrics: network size, average path length, nestedness, modularity, complementary specialization, normalized degree and betweenness centrality. Seed dispersal networks showed variations in size, species composition and modularity; did not present nested structures and their complementary specialization was high compared to other studies. Both networks presented short path lengths, and a constantly high robustness, despite their monthly variations. Sedentary bat species were recorded during all the study periods and occupied more central positions than nomadic species. We conclude that foraging strategies are important structuring factors that affect the dynamic of networks by determining the functional roles of frugivorous bats over time; thus sedentary bats are more important than nomadic species for the maintenance of the network structure, and their conservation is a must.

On time variation of fundamental constants in superstring theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, K.I.

1988-01-01

Assuming the action from the string theory and taking into account the dynamical freedom of a dilaton and its coupling to matter fluid, the authors show that fundamental 'constants' in string theories are independent of the 'radius' of the internal space. Since the scalar related to the 'constants' is coupled to the 4-dimensional gravity and matter fluid in the same way as in the Jordan-Brans Dicke theory with ω = -1, it must be massive and can get a mass easily through some symmetry breaking mechanism (e.g. the SUSY breaking due to a gluino condensation). Consequently, time variation of fundamental constants is too small to be observed

The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

Temporal variations in the potential hydrological performance of extensive green roof systems

Science.gov (United States)

De-Ville, Simon; Menon, Manoj; Stovin, Virginia

2018-03-01

Existing literature provides contradictory information about variation in potential green roof hydrological performance over time. This study has evaluated a long-term hydrological monitoring record from a series of extensive green roof test beds to identify long-term evolutions and sub-annual (seasonal) variations in potential hydrological performance. Monitoring of nine differently-configured extensive green roof test beds took place over a period of 6 years in Sheffield, UK. Long-term evolutions and sub-annual trends in maximum potential retention performance were identified through physical monitoring of substrate field capacity over time. An independent evaluation of temporal variations in detention performance was undertaken through the fitting of reservoir-routing model parameters. Aggregation of the resulting retention and detention variations permitted the prediction of extensive green roof hydrological performance in response to a 1-in-30-year 1-h summer design storm for Sheffield, UK, which facilitated the comparison of multi and sub-annual hydrological performance variations. Sub-annual (seasonal) variation was found to be significantly greater than long-term evolution. Potential retention performance increased by up to 12% after 5-years, whilst the maximum sub-annual variation in potential retention was 27%. For vegetated roof configurations, a 4% long-term improvement was observed for detention performance, compared to a maximum 63% sub-annual variation. Consistent long-term reductions in detention performance were observed in unvegetated roof configurations, with a non-standard expanded-clay substrate experiencing a 45% reduction in peak attenuation over 5-years. Conventional roof configurations exhibit stable long-term hydrological performance, but are nonetheless subject to sub-annual variation.

Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

2017-12-01

Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

Tracking Snow Variations in the Northern Hemisphere Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data (2000–2015

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Yunlong Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Multi-source remote sensing data were used to generate 500-m resolution cloud-free daily snow cover images for the Northern Hemisphere. Simultaneously, the spatial and temporal dynamic variations of snow in the Northern Hemisphere were evaluated from 2000 to 2015. The results indicated that (1 the maximum, minimum, and annual average snow-covered area (SCA in the Northern Hemisphere exhibited a fluctuating downward trend; the variation of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere had well-defined inter-annual and regional differences; (2 the average SCA in the Northern Hemisphere was the largest in January and the smallest in August; the SCA exhibited a downward trend for the monthly variations from February to April; and the seasonal variation in the SCA exhibited a downward trend in the spring, summer, and fall in the Northern Hemisphere (no pronounced variation trend in the winter was observed during the 2000–2015 period; (3 the spatial distribution of the annual average snow-covered day (SCD was related to the latitudinal zonality, and the areas exhibiting an upward trend were mainly at the mid to low latitudes with unstable SCA variations; and (4 the snow reduction was significant in the perennial SCA in the Northern Hemisphere, including high-latitude and high-elevation mountainous regions (between 35° and 50°N, such as the Tibetan Plateau, the Tianshan Mountains, the Pamir Plateau in Asia, the Alps in Europe, the Caucasus Mountains, and the Cordillera Mountains in North America.

Trends and regional variations in provision of contraception methods in a commercially insured population in the United States based on nationally proposed measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, A; Yu, J S; Wang, W; Lin, J; Lynen, R

2017-09-01

Three measures to assess the provision of effective contraception methods among reproductive-aged women have recently been endorsed for national public reporting. Based on these measures, this study examined real-world trends and regional variations of contraceptive provision in a commercially insured population in the United States. Women 15-44years old with continuous enrollment in each year from 2005 to 2014 were identified from a commercial claims database. In accordance with the proposed measures, percentages of women (a) provided most effective or moderately effective (MEME) methods of contraception and (b) provided a long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) method were calculated in two populations: women at risk for unintended pregnancy and women who had a live birth within 3 and 60days of delivery. During the 10-year period, the percentages of women at risk for unintended pregnancy provided MEME contraceptive methods increased among 15-20-year-olds (24.5%-35.9%) and 21-44-year-olds (26.2%-31.5%), and those provided a LARC method also increased among 15-20-year-olds (0.1%-2.4%) and 21-44-year-olds (0.8%-3.9%). Provision of LARC methods increased most in the North Central and West among both age groups of women. Provision of MEME contraceptives and LARC methods to women who had a live birth within 60days postpartum also increased across age groups and regions. This assessment indicates an overall trend of increasing provision of MEME contraceptive methods in the commercial sector, albeit with age group and regional variations. If implemented, these proposed measures may have impacts on health plan contraceptive access policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

Secular trends in seasonal variation in birth weight

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Camilla Bjørn; Gamborg, M; Raymond, K

2015-01-01

and phase of the yearly cycles to change. RESULTS: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW which, however, changed gradually across the study period. The highest BWs were seen during fall (September - October) from 1936 to 1963, but a new peak gradually grew from the early 1940s during early summer (May...... again. Sunshine did not explain the seasonal variation in BW. CONCLUSION: There was a clear seasonal pattern in BW in Denmark 1936-1989, which however changed across the study period. Throughout the study period we observed a peak in BW during the fall, but gradually, starting in the early 1940s...

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Analysis on Precipitation Variation in Anyang and Nanyang in Recent 57 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to analyze precipitation variation in Anyang and Nanyang in recent 57 years. [Method] Based on the data of annual precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang from 1953 to 2009, the changes of precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang were compared by means of mathematical statistics, regression analysis and wavelet analysis. [Result] In recent 57 years, annual precipitation in Anyang and Nanyang showed decrease trend, especially Anyang with obvious decrease trend; from seasonal variation, average ...

Implications of Galaxy Buildup for Putative IMF Variations in Massive Galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

Blancato, Kirsten; Genel, Shy; Bryan, Greg

2017-08-01

Recent observational evidence for initial mass function (IMF) variations in massive quiescent galaxies at z = 0 challenges the long-established paradigm of a universal IMF. While a few theoretical models relate the IMF to birth cloud conditions, the physical driver underlying these putative IMF variations is still largely unclear. Here we use post-processing analysis of the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation to investigate possible physical origins of IMF variability with galactic properties. We do so by tagging stellar particles in the simulation (each representing a stellar population of ≈ {10}6 {M}⊙ ) with individual IMFs that depend on various physical conditions, such as velocity dispersion, metallicity, or star formation rate, at the time and place in which the stars are formed. We then follow the assembly of these populations throughout cosmic time and reconstruct the overall IMF of each z = 0 galaxy from the many distinct IMFs it is composed of. Our main result is that applying the observed relations between IMF and galactic properties to the conditions at the star formation sites does not result in strong enough IMF variations between z = 0 galaxies. Steeper physical IMF relations are required for reproducing the observed IMF trends, and some stellar populations must form with more extreme IMFs than those observed. The origin of this result is the hierarchical nature of massive galaxy assembly, and it has implications for the reliability of the strong observed trends, for the ability of cosmological simulations to capture certain physical conditions in galaxies, and for theories of star formation aiming to explain the physical origin of a variable IMF.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

2016-04-01

Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age-related differences in the neural correlates of trial-to-trial variations of reaction time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nancy E. Adleman

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Intra-subject variation in reaction time (ISVRT is a developmentally-important phenomenon that decreases from childhood through young adulthood in parallel with the development of executive functions and networks. Prior work has shown a significant association between trial-by-trial variations in reaction time (RT and trial-by-trial variations in brain activity as measured by the blood-oxygenated level-dependent (BOLD response in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI studies. It remains unclear, however, whether such “RT-BOLD” relationships vary with age. Here, we determined whether such trial-by-trial relationships vary with age in a cross-sectional design. We observed an association between age and RT-BOLD relationships in 11 clusters located in visual/occipital regions, frontal and parietal association cortex, precentral/postcentral gyrus, and thalamus. Some of these relationships were negative, reflecting increased BOLD associated with decreased RT, manifesting around the time of stimulus presentation and positive several seconds later. Critically for present purposes, all RT-BOLD relationships increased with age. Thus, RT-BOLD relationships may reflect robust, measurable changes in the brain-behavior relationship across development.

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

2016-08-01

Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of primary air pollutants emissions from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Zhou, Zhen; Wang, Junling; Nie, Lei; Pan, Tao; Zhou, Junrui; Hua, Shenbing; Wang, Yong; Wu, Xiaoqing

2016-01-01

Coal-fired combustion is recognized as a significant anthropogenic source of atmospheric compounds in Beijing, causing heavy air pollution events and associated deterioration in visibility. Obtaining an accurate understanding of the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of emissions from coal-fired industrial combustion is essential for predicting air quality changes and evaluating the effectiveness of current control measures. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of primary air pollutants emitted from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing is developed for the period of 2007–2013 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends are projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. Our analysis shows that there is a general downward trend in primary air pollutants emissions because of the implementation of stricter local emission standards and the promotion by the Beijing municipal government of converting from coal-fired industrial boilers to gas-fired boilers. However, the ratio of coal consumed by industrial boilers to total coal consumption has been increasing, raising concerns about the further improvement of air quality in Beijing. Our estimates indicate that the total emissions of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO x , CO and VOCs from coal-fired industrial boilers in Beijing in 2013 are approximately 19,242 t, 13,345 t, 26,615 t, 22,965 t, 63,779 t and 1406 t, respectively. Under the current environmental policies and relevant energy savings and emission control plans, it may be possible to reduce NO x and other air pollutant emissions by 94% and 90% by 2030, respectively, if advanced flue gas purification technologies are implemented and coal is replaced with natural gas in the majority of existing boilers. - Highlights: • A unit-based emission inventory of coal-fired industrial boilers is developed. • Temporal trend of historical period 2007–2013 and the future till 2030 is

A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

1988-08-01

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

SU-E-T-326: The Oxygen Saturation (SO2) and Breath-Holding Time Variation Applied Active Breathing Control (ABC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gong, G; Yin, Y [Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China)

2014-06-01

Purpose: To study the oxygen saturation (SO2) and breath-holding time variation applied active breathing control (ABC) in radiotherapy of tumor. Methods: 24 volunteers were involved in our trials, and they all did breath-holding motion assisted by ELEKTA Active Breathing Coordinator 2.0 for 10 times respectively. And the patient monitor was used to observe the oxygen saturation (SO2) variation. The variation of SO2, and length of breath-holding time and the time for recovering to the initial value of SO2 were recorded and analyzed. Results: (1) The volunteers were divided into two groups according to the SO2 variation in breath-holding: A group, 14 cases whose SO2 reduction were more than 2% (initial value was 97% to 99%, while termination value was 91% to 96%); B group, 10 cases were less than 2% in breath-holding without inhaling oxygen. (2) The interfraction breath holding time varied from 8 to 20s for A group compared to the first breath-holding time, and for B group varied from 4 to 14s. (3) The breathing holding time of B group prolonged mean 8s, compared to A group. (4) The time for restoring to the initial value of SO2 was from 10s to 30s. And the breath-holding time shortened obviously for patients whose SO2 did not recover to normal. Conclusion: It is very obvious that the SO2 reduction in breath-holding associated with ABC for partial people. It is necessary to check the SO2 variation in breath training, and enough time should be given to recover SO2.

The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

2010-01-01

Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Determination trends and abnormal seasonal wind speed in Iraq

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassoon, Ahmed F. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, AL- Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

2013-07-01

Monthly observed wind speed data at four weather stations (Baghdad, Mosul, Basra, Rutba) at 10m above surface were used to explore the temporal variations of the wind speed (1971-2000) in Iraq. There are different methods to analyze wind speed variation data, but the time series are one of the powerful analysis methods to diagnose the seasonal wind speed anomaly. The results show most high abnormal data is found in summer seasons in all the stations of study, where it concentrated at 1975, 1976, 1978,1996-1995, 2000. Rutba station is different where its high deviation about annual average at nearly all the seasons, in this station there are trends in seasonal wind towards decreases in all the seasons, for example in winter it reached to about 0.046m/s.a-1, while in other stations Mosul and Basra there increases in annual seasonal wind speed trends in seasons spring, summer, autumn where its reached higher value at summer in Basra about 0.0482m/s.a-1. The second method to determine abnormal annual seasonal wind speed is through comparison seasonal average wind speed, where the average wind speed at the seasons summer and spring in Baghdad and Basra station have very high averages at nearly all years, this cannot see in Mosul and Rutba, in Rutba the seasonal average is intersected with each other, summer and spring is not have greater seasonal average in this station.

Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

2013-12-01

To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Zheng-hong; QIN Jun

2003-01-01

Through linear regression analysis to the trend of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation of 72 meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 1961 to 1995, it is revealed that: l) annual precipitation was increasing by 61.0mm/10a in the eastern part of Hubei (112°E as a dividing line) and decreasing by 34.9mm/10a in the western part; 2) precipitation in winter and summer (January, February, March, June and July) was increasing in almost whole province which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the south to the north. The precipitation in spring, autumn and winter (April, September, November and December) was decreasing in most of the areas which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the east to the west. March and December were transition periods between two spatial distribution pattems mentioned above; 3) the eastem part of Hubei has beome one of precipitation increasing centers in China. The results was consistent with the trend that more frequent flood and drought events happened in Hubei Province which are more different in spatial and temporal scales.

A study of regional trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff series

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tveito, O.E.; Hisdal, H.

1994-03-10

In this study long and homogeneous time series of runoff and precipitation are studied to identify variations in time and space. The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF-method) is applied. Both annual observations, smoothed (using Gauss filter) and seasonal values are analyzed. The analysis shows that the temporal variations in runoff and precipitation coincide. The deviations occurring in the seasonal values are caused by snow accumulation and snow melt. In the filtered series temporal trends are found. A comparison between the different normal periods has been carried out for precipitation. The 1900-30 and 1960-90 periods differ from the 1930-60 period. This may be caused by different weather types dominating the different periods. The different weather types are reflected in different empirical orthogonal functions. This is verified by regional studies. The coinciding patterns in runoff and precipitation are important aspects in climate studies and for extrapolation purposes. 11 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab.

Temperature and time variations during osteotomies performed with different piezosurgical devices: an in vitro study.

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado-Ruiz, R A; Sacks, D; Palermo, A; Calvo-Guirado, J L; Perez-Albacete, C; Romanos, G E

2016-09-01

The aim of this experimental in vitro study was to evaluate the effects of the piezoelectric device in temperature and time variations in standardized osteotomies performed with similar tip inserts in bovine bone blocks. Two different piezosurgical devices were used the OE-F15(®) (Osada Inc., Los Angeles, California, USA) and the Surgybone(®) (Silfradent Inc., Sofia, Forli Cesena, Italy). Serrated inserts with similar geometry were coupled with each device (ST94 insert/test A and P0700 insert/test B). Osteotomies 10 mm long and 3 mm deep were performed in bone blocks resembling type II (dense) and type IV (soft) bone densities with and without irrigation. Thermal changes and time variations were recorded. The effects of bone density, irrigation, and device on temperature changes and time necessary to accomplish the osteotomies were analyzed. Thermal analysis showed significant higher temperatures during piezosurgery osteotomies in hard bone without irrigation (P  0.05). Time analysis showed that the mean time values necessary to perform osteotomies were shorter in soft bone than in dense bone (P piezosurgery osteotomies in dense bone without irrigation; the time to perform the osteotomy with piezosurgery is shorter in soft bone compared to hard bone; and the piezosurgical device have a minimal influence in the temperature and time variations when a similar tip design is used during piezosurgery osteotomies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Kretschmer, Uta; Pigorsch, Christian

We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...... dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data....

Removing tidal-period variations from time-series data using low-pass digital filters

Science.gov (United States)

Walters, Roy A.; Heston, Cynthia

1982-01-01

Several low-pass, digital filters are examined for their ability to remove tidal Period Variations from a time-series of water surface elevation for San Francisco Bay. The most efficient filter is the one which is applied to the Fourier coefficients of the transformed data, and the filtered data recovered through an inverse transform. The ability of the filters to remove the tidal components increased in the following order: 1) cosine-Lanczos filter, 2) cosine-Lanczos squared filter; 3) Godin filter; and 4) a transform fitter. The Godin fitter is not sufficiently sharp to prevent severe attenuation of 2–3 day variations in surface elevation resulting from weather events.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

TIME VARIATION OF AV AND RV FOR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE BEHIND INTERSTELLAR DUST

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiaosheng; Biederman, M.; Herger, B.; Aldering, G. S.

2014-01-01

TIME VARIATION OF AV AND RV FOR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE BEHIND NON-UNIFORM INTERSTELLAR DUST ABSTRACT We investigate the time variation of the visual extinction, AV, and the total-to-selective extinction ratio, RV, resulting from interstellar dust in front of an expanding photospheric disk of a type Ia supernova (SN Ia). We simulate interstellar dust clouds according to a power law power spectrum and produce extinction maps that either follow a pseudo-Gaussian distribution or a lognormal distribution. The RV maps are produced through a correlation between AV and RV. With maps of AV and RV generated in each case (pseudo-Gaussian and lognormal), we then compute the effective AV and RV for a SN as its photospheric disk expands behind the dust screen. We find for a small percentage of SNe the AV and RV values can vary by a large factor from day to day in the first 40 days after explosion.

Trends in hospital-physician integration in medical oncology.

Science.gov (United States)

Clough, Jeffrey D; Dinan, Michaela A; Schulman, Kevin A

2017-10-01

Hospitals have rapidly acquired medical oncology practices in recent years. Experts disagree as to whether these trends are related to oncology-specific market factors or reflect a general trend of hospital-physician integration. The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence, geographic variation, and trends in physicians billing from hospital outpatient departments in medical oncology with other specialties. Retrospective analysis of Medicare claims data for 2012 and 2013. We calculated the proportion of physicians and practitioners in the 15 highest-volume specialties who billed the majority of evaluation and management visits from hospital outpatient departments in each year, nationally and by state. We included 338,998 and 352,321 providers in 2012 and 2013, respectively, of whom 9715 and 9969 were medical oncologists. Among the 15 specialties examined, medical oncology had the highest proportion of hospital outpatient department billing in 2012 and 2013 (35.0% and 38.3%, respectively). Medical oncology also experienced the greatest absolute change (3.3%) between the years, followed by thoracic surgery (2.4%) and cardiology (2.0%). There was marked state-level variation, with the proportion of medical oncologists based in hospital outpatient departments ranging from 0% in Nevada to 100% in Idaho. Hospital-physician integration has been more pronounced in medical oncology than in other high-volume specialties and is increasing at a faster rate. Policy makers should take these findings into consideration, particularly with respect to recent proposals that may continue to fuel these trends.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

2013-10-03

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

Fast solution of Cahn–Hilliard variational inequalities using implicit time discretization and finite elements

KAUST Repository

Bosch, Jessica; Stoll, Martin; Benner, Peter

2014-01-01

We consider the efficient solution of the Cahn-Hilliard variational inequality using an implicit time discretization, which is formulated as an optimal control problem with pointwise constraints on the control. By applying a semi-smooth Newton

Time-variations of the regional evapotranspiration rate from GRACE satellite gravimetry

OpenAIRE

Ramillien , Guillaume; Frappart , Frédéric; Güntner , Andreas; Ngo-Duc , Thanh; Cazenave , Anny; Laval , Katia

2006-01-01

International audience; Since its launch in March 2002, the GRACE mission is measuring the global time variations of the Earth's gravity field with a current resolution of ~500 km. Especially over the continents, these measurements represent the integrated land water mass including surface waters (lakes, wetlands and rivers), soil moisture, groundwater and snow cover. In this study, we use the GRACE land water solutions computed by Ramillien et al. (2005a) through an iterative inversion of mo...

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Variation of CRE with exponents of time and number of fractions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Supe, S.J.; Rao, S.M.; Sawant, S.G.; Bisht, J.S.

1976-01-01

The concept of NSD has been modified into TDF's by Orton and Ellis and CRE's by Kirk et al. It was aimed to study the variability of these new concepts on the exponents of time and number of fractions. It was found that TDF has larger variation with the exponents compared to that of CRE. The use of CRE and NSD for solving the treatment scheduling problems or for intercomparison of various regimes has been simplified by providing readymade estimation of CRE for various doses/fraction with increasing number of fractions. As there is increasing evidence for the change of exponents J and H, nomograms are presented to determine the CRE for various values of J and H. The variation of decay correction factors with the exponent H is also evaluated and is presented. This will help various radiotherapists to use CRE and the decay correction factors consistent with their clinical findings. (orig.) [de

Variations of extreme rainfall in space and time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2012-01-01

variation, whereas annual variations are related to changes in the average Danish summer precipitation, the average Danish summer temperature and the East Atlantic pattern. The spatio-temporal Poisson regression model was found to be a helpful tool when comparing the internal importance of these variables......In the ongoing climate change discussion, methods for identification of variability governed by climate change are important tools. The magnitude of variables that can describe this variability should be compared with magnitudes of variables describing variability in a stationary setting....... This study focuses on variations of extreme rainfall events, observed at 70 different locations in Denmark over a period of 31 years. The aim is to identify and compare variables, both spatially and temporally, which can explain different parts of the variability in this data set. Assuming that the number...

A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

2016-07-15

China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

OpenAIRE

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

Atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and wind variations between 50 and 200 km

Science.gov (United States)

Justus, C. G.; Woodrum, A.

1972-01-01

Data on atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and winds between 50 and 200 km were collected from sources including Meteorological Rocket Network data, ROBIN falling sphere data, grenade release and pitot tube data, meteor winds, chemical release winds, satellite data, and others. These data were analyzed by a daily difference method and results on the distribution statistics, magnitude, and spatial structure of the irregular atmospheric variations are presented. Time structures of the irregular variations were determined by the analysis of residuals from harmonic analysis of time series data. The observed height variations of irregular winds and densities are found to be in accord with a theoretical relation between these two quantities. The latitude variations (at 50 - 60 km height) show an increasing trend with latitude. A possible explanation of the unusually large irregular wind magnitudes of the White Sands MRN data is given in terms of mountain wave generation by the Sierra Nevada range about 1000 km west of White Sands. An analytical method is developed which, based on an analogy of the irregular motion field with axisymmetric turbulence, allows measured or model correlation or structure functions to be used to evaluate the effective frequency spectra of scalar and vector quantities of a spacecraft moving at any speed and at any trajectory elevation angle.

Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

Geographic variations and temporal trends of Salmonella-associated hospitalization in the U.S. elderly, 1991-2004: a time series analysis of the impact of HACCP regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Kenneth K H; Webb, Patrick; Russell, Robert M; Naumova, Elena N

2009-12-03

About 1.4 million Salmonella infections, a common food-borne illness, occur in the U.S. annually; the elderly (aged 65 or above) are most susceptible. In 1997, the USDA introduced the Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Systems (PR/HACCP) which demands regular Salmonella testing in various establishments processing meat products, such as broiler chickens. Impact evaluations of PR/HACCP on hospitalizations related to Salmonella are lacking. Hospitalization records of the U.S. elderly in 1991-2004 were obtained from the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services. Harmonic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the long-term trends of Salmonella-related hospitalizations in pre- and post-HACCP periods. Seasonal characteristics of the outcome in the nine Census divisions of the contiguous U.S. were also derived and contrasted. Predicted rates decreased in most divisions after 1997, except South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central. These three divisions also demonstrated higher overall hospitalization rates, pronounced seasonal patterns, and consistent times to peak at about 32nd to 34th week of the year. The impact of HACCP was geographically different. South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central divisions should be targeted in further Salmonella preventive programs. Further research is needed to identify the best program type and timing of implementation.

Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

1976-10-01

Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US

Geostatistical Characteristic of Space -Time Variation in Underground Water Selected Quality Parameters in Klodzko Water Intake Area (SW Part of Poland)

Science.gov (United States)

Namysłowska-Wilczyńska, Barbara

2016-04-01

. These data were subjected to spatial analyses using statistical and geostatistical methods. The evaluation of basic statistics of the investigated quality parameters, including their histograms of distributions, scatter diagrams between these parameters and also correlation coefficients r were presented in this article. The directional semivariogram function and the ordinary (block) kriging procedure were used to build the 3D geostatistical model. The geostatistical parameters of the theoretical models of directional semivariograms of the studied water quality parameters, calculated along the time interval and along the wells depth (taking into account the terrain elevation), were used in the ordinary (block) kriging estimation. The obtained results of estimation, i.e. block diagrams allowed to determine the levels of increased values Z* of studied underground water quality parameters. Analysis of the variability in the selected quality parameters of underground water for an analyzed area in Klodzko water intake was enriched by referring to the results of geostatistical studies carried out for underground water quality parameters and also for a treated water and in Klodzko water supply system (iron Fe, manganese Mn, ammonium ion NH4+ contents), discussed in earlier works. Spatial and time variation in the latter-mentioned parameters was analysed on the basis of the data (2007÷2011, 2008÷2011). Generally, the behaviour of the underground water quality parameters has been found to vary in space and time. Thanks to the spatial analyses of the variation in the quality parameters in the Kłodzko underground water intake area some regularities (trends) in the variation in water quality have been identified.

Real time psychrometric data collection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDaniel, K.H.

1996-01-01

Eight Mine Weather Stations (MWS) installed at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) to monitor the underground ventilation system are helping to simulate real-time ventilation scenarios. Seasonal weather extremes can result in variations of Natural Ventilation Pressure (NVP) which can significantly effect the ventilation system. The eight MWS(s) (which previously collected and stored temperature, barometric pressure and relative humidity data for subsequent NVP calculations) were upgraded to provide continuous real-time data to the site wide Central monitoring System. This data can now be utilized by the ventilation engineer to create realtime ventilation simulations and trends which assist in the prediction and mitigation of NVP and psychrometric related events

Near Field Intensity Trends of Main Laser Alignment Images in the National Ignition Facility (NIF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leach, R R; Beltsar, I; Burkhart, S; Lowe-Webb, R; Kamm, V M; Salmon, T; Wilhelmsen, K

2015-01-22

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) utilizes 192 high-energy laser beams focused with enough power and precision on a hydrogen-filled spherical, cryogenic target to potentially initiate a fusion reaction. NIF has been operational for six years; during that time, thousands of successful laser firings or shots have been executed. Critical instrument measurements and camera images are carefully recorded for each shot. The result is a massive and complex database or ‘big data’ archive that can be used to investigate the state of the laser system at any point in its history or to locate and track trends in the laser operation over time. In this study, the optical light throughput for more than 1600 NIF shots for each of the 192 main laser beams and 48 quads was measured over a three year period from January 2009 to October 2012. The purpose was to verify that the variation in the transmission of light through the optics over time performed within design expectations during this time period. Differences between average or integrated intensity from images recorded by the input sensor package (ISP) and by the output sensor package (OSP) in the NIF beam-line were examined. A metric is described for quantifying changes in the integrated intensity measurements and was used to view potential trends. Results are presented for the NIF input and output sensor package trends and changes over the three year time-frame.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

2013-03-18

Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

OpenAIRE

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

2018-01-01

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

Science.gov (United States)

Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

2012-02-01

To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

Long-term trends in the St. Marys River open water fish community

Science.gov (United States)

Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Fielder, David G.; Godby, Neal; Bowen, Anjanette; O'Connor, Lisa; Parrish, Josh; Greenwood, Susan; Chong, Stephen; Wright, Greg

2011-01-01

We examined trends in species composition and abundance of the St. Marys River fish community. Abundance data were available approximately once every six years from 1975 through 2006, and size and age data were available from 1995 through 2006. We also compared survey data in 2006 with results of a concurrent creel survey that year, as well as data from prior surveys spanning a 69 year time frame. The St. Marys River fish community was best characterized as a coolwater fish community with apparent little variation in species composition, and only slight variation in overall fish abundance since 1975. However, we did find recent trends in abundance among target species sought by anglers: centrarchids increased, percids appeared stable, and both northern pike Esox lucius and cisco Coregonus artedii declined. Survey results suggested that walleye (Sander vitreus) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) experienced moderate exploitation but benefited from recent strong recruitment and faster growth. Mechanisms underlying declines of northern pike and cisco were not clear; reduced abundance could have resulted from high exploitation, variation in recruitment, or a combination of both factors. Despite these challenges, the St. Marys River fish community appears remarkably stable. We suggest that managers insure that creel surveys occur simultaneously with assessments, but periodic gill net surveys may no longer provide adequate data in support of recent, more complex management objectives. While additional surveys would add costs, more frequent data might ensure sustainability of a unique fish community that supports a large proportion of angler effort on Lake Huron.

Time dependency of local cerebral blood flow measurements caused by regional variations in tissue transit time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lear, J.L.; Kasliwal, R.; Feyerabend, A.

1990-01-01

Calculated values of local cerebral blood flow (LCBF) using the diffusible tracer model are assumed to be independent of time as long as experiments are brief enough to prevent tissue saturation. This paper investigates the effects of CTT variation on LCBF measurements. Using double-label quantitative digital autoradiography, we compared iodoantipyrine (IAP)-based LCBF measurements obtained with tracer infusions of different lengths of time. Lightly anesthetized rats were given simultaneous ramp infusions of C-14 IAP (45 seconds) and I-123 IAP (15 seconds) and immediately sacrificed. Two autoradiograms of each brain section, one representing I-123 and the other representing C-14, were produced, digitized, and converted into images of LCBF based on the 15- and 45-second infusion periods. The LCBF image pairs were compared on a pixel-by-pixel basis

Measurement of time series variation of thermal diffusivity of magnetic fluid under magnetic field by forced Rayleigh scattering method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motozawa, Masaaki, E-mail: motozawa.masaaki@shizuoka.ac.jp [Shizuoka University, 3-5-1 Johoku, Naka-ku, Hamamatsu-shi, Shizuoka 432-8561 (Japan); Muraoka, Takashi [Shizuoka University, 3-5-1 Johoku, Naka-ku, Hamamatsu-shi, Shizuoka 432-8561 (Japan); Motosuke, Masahiro, E-mail: mot@rs.tus.ac.jp [Tokyo University of Science, 6-3-1 Niijuku, Katsushika-ku, Tokyo 125-8585 (Japan); Fukuta, Mitsuhiro, E-mail: fukuta.mitsuhiro@shizuoka.ac.jp [Shizuoka University, 3-5-1 Johoku, Naka-ku, Hamamatsu-shi, Shizuoka 432-8561 (Japan)

2017-04-15

It can be expected that the thermal diffusivity of a magnetic fluid varies from time to time after applying a magnetic field because of the growth of the inner structure of a magnetic fluid such as chain-like clusters. In this study, time series variation of the thermal diffusivity of a magnetic fluid caused by applying a magnetic field was investigated experimentally. For the measurement of time series variation of thermal diffusivity, we attempted to apply the forced Rayleigh scattering method (FRSM), which has high temporal and high spatial resolution. We set up an optical system for the FRSM and measured the thermal diffusivity. A magnetic field was applied to a magnetic fluid in parallel and perpendicular to the heat flux direction, and the magnetic field intensity was 70 mT. The FRSM was successfully applied to measurement of the time series variation of the magnetic fluid from applying a magnetic field. The results show that a characteristic configuration in the time series variation of the thermal diffusivity of magnetic fluid was obtained in the case of applying a magnetic field parallel to the heat flux direction. In contrast, in the case of applying a magnetic field perpendicular to the heat flux, the thermal diffusivity of the magnetic fluid hardly changed during measurement. - Highlights: • Thermal diffusivity was measured by forced Rayleigh scattering method (FRSM). • FRSM has high temporal and high spatial resolutions for measurement. • We attempted to apply FRSM to magnetic fluid (MF). • Time series variation of thermal diffusivity of MF was successfully measured by FRSM. • Anisotropic thermal diffusivity of magnetic fluid was also successfully confirmed.

Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandström, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

Temporal variation of clear-water scour at compound Abutments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aminuddin Ab. Ghani

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Most of actual abutments in rivers are built on foundation, while there is limited number of study available on the effects of the foundation on the local scour. In this study, temporal variation of local scour around compound abutment was investigated experimentally under clear-water conditions. The results showed that a suitable level of foundation is able to decrease the scour depth and increase scour time during the flood events. The trend of temporal scour depth at compound pier and abutment is similar. The scour depth develops to top of foundation quickly, and then the foundation postpones the scour development (lag–time. Duration of lag–time depends on the foundation level, velocity ratio (U/Uc and foundation dimension. This study highlights that proper design of foundation level increases duration of scouring and provides enough time to treat bridge foundation after the flood events.

Forecasting Inflow and Outflow of Money Currency in East Java Using a Hybrid Exponential Smoothing and Calendar Variation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Susanti, Ana; Suhartono; Jati Setyadi, Hario; Taruk, Medi; Haviluddin; Pamilih Widagdo, Putut

2018-03-01

Money currency availability in Bank Indonesia can be examined by inflow and outflow of money currency. The objective of this research is to forecast the inflow and outflow of money currency in each Representative Office (RO) of BI in East Java by using a hybrid exponential smoothing based on state space approach and calendar variation model. Hybrid model is expected to generate more accurate forecast. There are two studies that will be discussed in this research. The first studies about hybrid model using simulation data that contain pattern of trends, seasonal and calendar variation. The second studies about the application of a hybrid model for forecasting the inflow and outflow of money currency in each RO of BI in East Java. The first of results indicate that exponential smoothing model can not capture the pattern calendar variation. It results RMSE values 10 times standard deviation of error. The second of results indicate that hybrid model can capture the pattern of trends, seasonal and calendar variation. It results RMSE values approaching the standard deviation of error. In the applied study, the hybrid model give more accurate forecast for five variables : the inflow of money currency in Surabaya, Malang, Jember and outflow of money currency in Surabaya and Kediri. Otherwise, the time series regression model yields better for three variables : outflow of money currency in Malang, Jember and inflow of money currency in Kediri.

Poverty index with time-varying consumption and income distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyay, Amit K.; Kumar, T. Krishna; Mallick, Sushanta K.

2017-03-01

Starting from a stochastic agent-based model to represent market exchange in a developing economy, we study time variations of the probability density function of income with simultaneous variation of the consumption deprivation (CD), where CD represents the shortfall in consumption from the saturation level of an essential commodity, cereal. Together, these two models combine income-expenditure-based market dynamics with time variations in consumption due to income. In this new unified theoretical structure, exchange of trade in assets is only allowed when the income exceeds consumption-deprivation while CD itself is endogenously obtained from a separate kinetic model. Our results reveal that the nature of time variation of the CD function leads to a downward trend in the threshold level of consumption of basic necessities, suggesting a possible dietary transition in terms of lower saturation level of food-grain consumption, possibly through an improvement in the level of living. The new poverty index, defined as CD, is amenable to approximate probabilistic prediction within a short time horizon. A major achievement of this work is the intrinsic independence of the poverty index from an exogenous poverty line, making it more objective for policy formulation as opposed to existing poverty indices in the literature.

Antioxidant, Antimicrobial and Phytochemical Variations in Thirteen Moringa oleifera Lam. Cultivars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashwell R. Ndhlala

2014-07-01

Full Text Available A study was undertaken to assess variation in antioxidant, antimicrobial and phytochemical properties of thirteen Moringa oleifera cultivars obtained from different locations across the globe. Standard antioxidant methods including the DPPH scavenging, ferric reducing power (FRAP and β-carotene-linoleic acid model were used to evaluate the activity. Variation in the antioxidant activity was observed, with TOT4951 from Thailand being the most active, with activity five times higher than that of ascorbic acid (reference compound. A different trend was observed for the activity in the FRAP and β-carotene-linoleic acid assays. Antimicrobial activity was tested against Gram-positive (Staphylococcus aureus and Gram-negative (Klebsiella pneumoniae strains using the microdilution method. Acetone extracts of all cultivars exhibited good antibacterial activity against K. pneumoniae (MIC values of 0.78 mg/mL. The remaining extracts exhibited weak activity against the two microorganisms. For the antifungal activity, all the extracts exhibited low activity. Variations were observed in the total phenolic and flavonoid contents. Cultivars TOT5169 (Thailand and SH (South Africa exhibited highest amounts of total phenolic compounds while TOT5028 (Thailand exhibited the lowest amounts of five times lower than the highest. The information offer an understanding on variations between cultivars from different geographical locations and is important in the search for antioxidant supplementation and anti-ageing products.

Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

2015-09-01

The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, C.M.; Zhang, S.D.; Yi, F.; Huang, K.M.; Gan, Q.; Gong, Y. [Wuhan Univ., Hubei (China). School of Electronic Information; Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei (China). Key Lab. of Geospace Environment and Geodesy; State Observatory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhang, Y.H. [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Hydrometeorolgy

2013-11-01

Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when aGW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal-GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

Novel data sources for women's health research: mapping breast screening online information seeking through Google trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Fazeli Dehkordy, Soudabeh; Carlos, Ruth C; Hall, Kelli S; Dalton, Vanessa K

2014-09-01

Millions of people use online search engines everyday to find health-related information and voluntarily share their personal health status and behaviors in various Web sites. Thus, data from tracking of online information seeker's behavior offer potential opportunities for use in public health surveillance and research. Google Trends is a feature of Google which allows Internet users to graph the frequency of searches for a single term or phrase over time or by geographic region. We used Google Trends to describe patterns of information-seeking behavior in the subject of dense breasts and to examine their correlation with the passage or introduction of dense breast notification legislation. To capture the temporal variations of information seeking about dense breasts, the Web search query "dense breast" was entered in the Google Trends tool. We then mapped the dates of legislative actions regarding dense breasts that received widespread coverage in the lay media to information-seeking trends about dense breasts over time. Newsworthy events and legislative actions appear to correlate well with peaks in search volume of "dense breast". Geographic regions with the highest search volumes have passed, denied, or are currently considering the dense breast legislation. Our study demonstrated that any legislative action and respective news coverage correlate with increase in information seeking for "dense breast" on Google, suggesting that Google Trends has the potential to serve as a data source for policy-relevant research. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beach morphological variations over micro-time scales

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Murty, C.S.; Veerayya, M.; Sastry, J.S.; Varadachari, V.V.R.

formation, variations in the profiles show anomalous behaviour. The differences in grain-size distribution of the sediments of these 2 beaches are attributed to the available wave energies at these 2 locations...

Rules of parameter variation in homotype series of birdsong can indicate a 'sollwert' significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hultsch, H; Todt, D

1996-11-01

Various bird species produce songs which include homotype pattern series, i.e. segments composed of a number of repeated vocal units. We compared such units and analyzed the variation of their parameters, especially in the time and the frequency domain. In addition, we examined whether and how serial changes of both the range and the trend of variation were related to song constituents following the repetitions. Data evaluation showed that variation of specific serial parameters (e.g., unit pitch or unit duration) occurring in the whistle song-types of nightingales (Luscinia megarhynchos) were converging towards a distinct terminal value. Although song-types differed in this terminal value, it was found to play the role of a key cue ('sollwert'). The continuation of a song depended on a preceding attainment of its specific 'sollwert'. Our results suggest that the study of signal parameters and rules of their variations make a useful tool for the behavioral access to the properties of the control systems mediating serial signal performances.

Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Deushi

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

Boundedness and almost Periodicity in Time of Solutions of Evolutionary Variational Inequalities

Science.gov (United States)

Pankov, A. A.

1983-04-01

In this paper existence theorems are obtained for the solutions of abstract parabolic variational inequalities, which are bounded with respect to time (in the Stepanov and L^\\infty norms). The regularity and almost periodicity properties of such solutions are studied. Theorems are also established concerning their solvability in spaces of Besicovitch almost periodic functions. The majority of the results are obtained without any compactness assumptions. Bibliography: 30 titles.

Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

2016-01-01

Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sundbom, M [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Limnology, Uppsala (Sweden)

2002-04-01

The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of {sup 137}Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for {sup 137}Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

Chernobyl radiocesium in freshwater fish: Long-term dynamics and sources of variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sundbom, M.

2002-01-01

The aim of this thesis was to investigate both the long-term temporal pattern and sources of individual variation for radiocesium in freshwater fish. The basis for the study is time series of 137 Cs activity concentrations in fish from three lakes in the area North-west of Uppsala, Sweden that received considerable amounts of 137 Cs from Chernobyl in may 1986. The lakes were Lake Ekholmssjoen, Lake Flatsjoen and Lake Siggeforasjoen, all small forest lakes, but with different morphometrical and chemical characteristics. The data were collected regularly, usually several times per year, during 1986-2000, using consistent methods. More than 7600 fish individuals from 7 species covering wide size ranges and feeding habits were analysed for 137 Cs. For each fish was the length, weight, sex, and often the stomach contend recorded. The evaluation on long-term trends were based on data from all three lakes, while the study on sources of variation evaluated data from Lake Flatsjoen only. (au)

Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

2007-06-01

With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

2009-01-01

Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

Case studies of the storm time variation of the polar cusp

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, C.

1983-01-01

The latitudinal variations of the polar cusp region were examined during three intense geomagnetic storms. The variations were compared with the intensity of storm time ring current inferred from the Dst index, with the magnitude of the north-south component B/sub z/ of the interplanetary magnetic field and with substorm activity. The common feature is that the rapid equatorward shift occurred during the increase of the ring current growth and during the southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field orientation. The equatorwardmost latitude of the cusp was reached before the peak of the ring current intensity, by a few to several hours, coinciding with the occurrence of the largest magnitude of the southward interplanetary magnetic field component. However, details of the polar cusp latitudinal movement differ from storm to storm. During the three storms studied, the poleward recovery commenced at the peak magnitude of the negative IMF B/sub z/ component, but the recovery proceeded without a clear relation to variations of the interplanetary B/sub z/ component, to the ring current intensity, or to the substorm activity. The lowest cusp latitude observed was at approx.61.7 0 , and the magnitude of this shift seems to be related to the magnitudes of -B/sub z/. It is further observed that the approximate rates of the cusp macroscopic equatorward and poleward movements are about 3 0 and 1.5 0 per hour, respectively

Trend of dissolved inorganic nitrogen at stations downstream from the Three-Gorges Dam of Yangtze River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, C.C.; Shen, Z.Y.; Xiong, M.; Ma, F.B.; Li, Y.Y.; Chen, L.; Liu, R.M.

2013-01-01

The TRAMO/SEATS program, combined with the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, was used to detect trends and potential change points in time series of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) at three stations along the Yangtze River. The trend components were extracted, and two change points were successfully detected. The components revealed that DIN has been increasing at all the stations since the 1990s, although variations exist. Changes visible before 2002 illustrate the differences in agriculture development among regions upstream from the stations. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD), which began to impound in 2003, led to years of different trends. The DIN concentration, which had been trending upward prior to that date, began a slightly downward trend because of NH 4 + depletion. Readings at the Yichang station revealed this trend most strongly; those at the Hankou station less so. The Datong station was far enough away from the TGD so that no obvious effects were seen. -- Highlights: •TRAMO/SEATS program coupled with HP filter was used to find water quality trends. •Smooth trends other than step trends were separated from trend-cycle components. •DIN concentration was proved to be a reflection of agricultural development. •The three stations experienced different agricultural development since 1990s. •The impoundment of the Three-Gorges Dam can impact as far as to the Hankou station. -- DIN concentrations were reflections of agricultural development in the YRB, but the impoundment of TGD since June, 2003 also had impacts on DIN concentrations far to the Hankou station

Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUSAN VANDALE

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

Nonlinear Variation of Parameters Formula for Impulsive Differential Equations with Initial Time Difference and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peiguang Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper establishes variation of parameters formula for impulsive differential equations with initial time difference. As an application, one of the results is used to investigate stability properties of solutions.

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

2001-05-01

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

Short-time variations of the ground water level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Lars Y.

1977-09-01

Investigations have demonstrated that the ground water level of aquifers in the Swedish bedrock shows shorttime variations without changing their water content. The ground water level is among other things affected by regular tidal movements occuring in the ''solid'' crust of the earth variations in the atmospheric pressure strong earthquakes occuring in different parts of the world These effects proves that the system of fissures in the bedrock are not stable and that the ground water flow is influenced by both water- and airfilled fissures

Automatic trend estimation

CERN Document Server

Vamos¸, C˘alin

2013-01-01

Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

Study on the Variation of Groundwater Level under Time-varying Recharge

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ming-Chang; Hsieh, Ping-Cheng

2017-04-01

The slopes of the suburbs come to important areas by focusing on the work of soil and water conservation in recent years. The water table inside the aquifer is affected by rainfall, geology and topography, which will result in the change of groundwater discharge and water level. Currently, the way to obtain water table information is to set up the observation wells; however, owing to that the cost of equipment and the wells excavated is too expensive, we develop a mathematical model instead, which might help us to simulate the groundwater level variation. In this study, we will discuss the groundwater level change in a sloping unconfined aquifer with impermeable bottom under time-varying rainfall events. Referring to Child (1971), we employ the Boussinesq equation as the governing equation, and apply the General Integral Transforms Method (GITM) to analyzing the groundwater level after linearizing the Boussinesq equation. After comparing the solution with Verhoest & Troch (2000) and Bansal & Das (2010), we get satisfactory results. To sum up, we have presented an alternative approach to solve the linearized Boussinesq equation for the response of groundwater level in a sloping unconfined aquifer. The present analytical results combine the effect of bottom slope and the time-varying recharge pattern on the water table fluctuations. Owing to the limitation and difficulty of measuring the groundwater level directly, we develop such a mathematical model that we can predict or simulate the variation of groundwater level affected by any rainfall events in advance.

Period variations in pulsating X-ray sources. I. Accretion flow parameters and neutron star structure from timing observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamb, F.K.; Pines, D.; Shaham, J.

1978-01-01

We show that valuable information about both accretion flows and neutron star structure can be obtained from X-ray timing observations of period variations in pulsating sources. Such variations can result from variations in the accretion flow, or from internal torque variations, associated with oscillations of the fluid core or the unpinning of vortices in the inner crust. We develop a statistical description of torque variations in terms of noise processes, indicate how the applicability of such a description may be tested observationally, and show how it may be used to determine from observation both the properties of accretion flows and the internal structure of neutron stars, including the relative inertial moments of the crust and superfluid neutron core, the crust-core coupling time, and the frequencies of any low-frequency internal collective modes. Particular attention is paid to the physical origin of spin-down episodes; it is shown that usyc episodes may result either from external torque reversals or from internal torque variations.With the aid of the statistical description, the response of the star to torque fluctuations is calculated for three stellar models: (i) a completely rigid star; (ii) a two-component star; and (iii) a two-component star with a finite-frequency internal mode, such as the Tkachenko mode of a rotating neutron superfluid. Our calculations show that fluctuating torques could account for the period the period variations and spin-down episodes observed in Her X-1 and Cen X-3, including the large spin-down event observed in the latter source during 1972 September-October. The torque noise strengths inferred from current timing observations using the simple two-component models are shown to be consistent with those to be expected from fluctuations in accretion flows onto magnetic neutron stars

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Zerefos

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD, tropopause height changes (including global warming and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC. Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

Science.gov (United States)

Zerefos, Christos; Kapsomenakis, John; Eleftheratos, Kostas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Hubert, Daan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Frith, Stacey; Sofieva, Viktoria; Hassler, Birgit

2018-05-01

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.