Commuters’ valuation of travel time variability in Barcelona

OpenAIRE

Javier Asensio; Anna Matas

2007-01-01

The value given by commuters to the variability of travel times is empirically analysed using stated preference data from Barcelona (Spain). Respondents are asked to choose between alternatives that differ in terms of cost, average travel time, variability of travel times and departure time. Different specifications of a scheduling choice model are used to measure the influence of various socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that travel time variability.

The intervals method: a new approach to analyse finite element outputs using multivariate statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Marcé-Nogué

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background In this paper, we propose a new method, named the intervals’ method, to analyse data from finite element models in a comparative multivariate framework. As a case study, several armadillo mandibles are analysed, showing that the proposed method is useful to distinguish and characterise biomechanical differences related to diet/ecomorphology. Methods The intervals’ method consists of generating a set of variables, each one defined by an interval of stress values. Each variable is expressed as a percentage of the area of the mandible occupied by those stress values. Afterwards these newly generated variables can be analysed using multivariate methods. Results Applying this novel method to the biological case study of whether armadillo mandibles differ according to dietary groups, we show that the intervals’ method is a powerful tool to characterize biomechanical performance and how this relates to different diets. This allows us to positively discriminate between specialist and generalist species. Discussion We show that the proposed approach is a useful methodology not affected by the characteristics of the finite element mesh. Additionally, the positive discriminating results obtained when analysing a difficult case study suggest that the proposed method could be a very useful tool for comparative studies in finite element analysis using multivariate statistical approaches.

The intervals method: a new approach to analyse finite element outputs using multivariate statistics

Science.gov (United States)

De Esteban-Trivigno, Soledad; Püschel, Thomas A.; Fortuny, Josep

2017-01-01

Background In this paper, we propose a new method, named the intervals’ method, to analyse data from finite element models in a comparative multivariate framework. As a case study, several armadillo mandibles are analysed, showing that the proposed method is useful to distinguish and characterise biomechanical differences related to diet/ecomorphology. Methods The intervals’ method consists of generating a set of variables, each one defined by an interval of stress values. Each variable is expressed as a percentage of the area of the mandible occupied by those stress values. Afterwards these newly generated variables can be analysed using multivariate methods. Results Applying this novel method to the biological case study of whether armadillo mandibles differ according to dietary groups, we show that the intervals’ method is a powerful tool to characterize biomechanical performance and how this relates to different diets. This allows us to positively discriminate between specialist and generalist species. Discussion We show that the proposed approach is a useful methodology not affected by the characteristics of the finite element mesh. Additionally, the positive discriminating results obtained when analysing a difficult case study suggest that the proposed method could be a very useful tool for comparative studies in finite element analysis using multivariate statistical approaches. PMID:29043107

Linking GPS Telemetry Surveys and Scat Analyses Helps Explain Variability in Black Bear Foraging Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesmerises, Rémi; Rebouillat, Lucie; Dussault, Claude; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2015-01-01

Studying diet is fundamental to animal ecology and scat analysis, a widespread approach, is considered a reliable dietary proxy. Nonetheless, this method has weaknesses such as non-random sampling of habitats and individuals, inaccurate evaluation of excretion date, and lack of assessment of inter-individual dietary variability. We coupled GPS telemetry and scat analyses of black bears Ursus americanus Pallas to relate diet to individual characteristics and habitat use patterns while foraging. We captured 20 black bears (6 males and 14 females) and fitted them with GPS/Argos collars. We then surveyed GPS locations shortly after individual bear visits and collected 139 feces in 71 different locations. Fecal content (relative dry matter biomass of ingested items) was subsequently linked to individual characteristics (sex, age, reproductive status) and to habitats visited during foraging bouts using Brownian bridges based on GPS locations prior to feces excretion. At the population level, diet composition was similar to what was previously described in studies on black bears. However, our individual-based method allowed us to highlight different intra-population patterns, showing that sex and female reproductive status had significant influence on individual diet. For example, in the same habitats, females with cubs did not use the same food sources as lone bears. Linking fecal content (i.e., food sources) to habitat previously visited by different individuals, we demonstrated a potential differential use of similar habitats dependent on individual characteristics. Females with cubs-of-the-year tended to use old forest clearcuts (6-20 years old) to feed on bunchberry, whereas females with yearling foraged for blueberry and lone bears for ants. Coupling GPS telemetry and scat analyses allows for efficient detection of inter-individual or inter-group variations in foraging strategies and of linkages between previous habitat use and food consumption, even for cryptic

Linking GPS Telemetry Surveys and Scat Analyses Helps Explain Variability in Black Bear Foraging Strategies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rémi Lesmerises

Full Text Available Studying diet is fundamental to animal ecology and scat analysis, a widespread approach, is considered a reliable dietary proxy. Nonetheless, this method has weaknesses such as non-random sampling of habitats and individuals, inaccurate evaluation of excretion date, and lack of assessment of inter-individual dietary variability. We coupled GPS telemetry and scat analyses of black bears Ursus americanus Pallas to relate diet to individual characteristics and habitat use patterns while foraging. We captured 20 black bears (6 males and 14 females and fitted them with GPS/Argos collars. We then surveyed GPS locations shortly after individual bear visits and collected 139 feces in 71 different locations. Fecal content (relative dry matter biomass of ingested items was subsequently linked to individual characteristics (sex, age, reproductive status and to habitats visited during foraging bouts using Brownian bridges based on GPS locations prior to feces excretion. At the population level, diet composition was similar to what was previously described in studies on black bears. However, our individual-based method allowed us to highlight different intra-population patterns, showing that sex and female reproductive status had significant influence on individual diet. For example, in the same habitats, females with cubs did not use the same food sources as lone bears. Linking fecal content (i.e., food sources to habitat previously visited by different individuals, we demonstrated a potential differential use of similar habitats dependent on individual characteristics. Females with cubs-of-the-year tended to use old forest clearcuts (6-20 years old to feed on bunchberry, whereas females with yearling foraged for blueberry and lone bears for ants. Coupling GPS telemetry and scat analyses allows for efficient detection of inter-individual or inter-group variations in foraging strategies and of linkages between previous habitat use and food consumption, even

Analysing Terrorism from a Systems Thinking Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukas Schoenenberger

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking offers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their effects on the key variable—the political influence of a terrorist network. We also offer insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with fictional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.

Simple Crosscutting Concerns Are Not So Simple : Analysing Variability in Large-Scale Idioms-Based Implementations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruntink, M.; Van Deursen, A.; d’Hondt, M.; Tourwé, T.

2007-01-01

This paper describes a method for studying idioms-based implementations of crosscutting concerns, and our experiences with it in the context of a real-world, large-scale embedded software system. In particular, we analyse a seemingly simple concern, tracing, and show that it exhibits significant

The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Austin (Peter); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

2015-01-01

textabstractObjectives To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. Study Design and Setting We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression

Articulatory variability in cluttering.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartinger, Mariam; Mooshammer, Christine

2008-01-01

In order to investigate the articulatory processes of the hasty and mumbled speech in cluttering, the kinematic variability was analysed by means of electromagnetic midsagittal articulography. In contrast to persons with stuttering, those with cluttering improve their intelligibility by concentrating on their speech task. Variability has always been an important criterion in comparable studies of stuttering and is discussed in terms of the stability of the speech motor system. The aim of the current study was to analyse the spatial and temporal variability in the speech of three persons with cluttering (PWC) and three control speakers. All participants were native speakers of German. The speech material consisted of repetitive CV syllables and loan words such as 'emotionalisieren', because PWC have the severest problems with long words with a complex syllable structure. The results showed a significantly higher coefficient of variation for PWC in loan word production, both in the temporal and in the spatial domain, whereas the means of displacements and durations did not differ between groups. These findings were discussed in terms of the effects of the linguistic complexity, since for the syllable repetition task, no significant differences between PWC and controls were found. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Molecular variability analyses of Apple chlorotic leaf spot virus

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The highest degree of variability was observed in the middle portion with 9 amino acid substitutions in contrast to the N-terminal and C-terminal ends, which were maximally conserved with only 4 amino acid substitutions. In phylogenetic analysis no reasonable correlation between host species and/or geographic origin of ...

Cardiac arrhythmia detection using combination of heart rate variability analyses and PUCK analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahananto, Faizal; Igasaki, Tomohiko; Murayama, Nobuki

2013-01-01

This paper presents cardiac arrhythmia detection using the combination of a heart rate variability (HRV) analysis and a "potential of unbalanced complex kinetics" (PUCK) analysis. Detection performance was improved by adding features extracted from the PUCK analysis. Initially, R-R interval data were extracted from the original electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings and were cut into small segments and marked as either normal or arrhythmia. HRV analyses then were conducted using the segmented R-R interval data, including a time-domain analysis, frequency-domain analysis, and nonlinear analysis. In addition to the HRV analysis, PUCK analysis, which has been implemented successfully in a foreign exchange market series to characterize change, was employed. A decision-tree algorithm was applied to all of the obtained features for classification. The proposed method was tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database and had an overall classification accuracy of 91.73%. After combining features obtained from the PUCK analysis, the overall accuracy increased to 92.91%. Therefore, we suggest that the use of a PUCK analysis in conjunction with HRV analysis might improve performance accuracy for the detection of cardiac arrhythmia.

Robust Machine Learning Variable Importance Analyses of Medical Conditions for Health Care Spending.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Sherri

2018-03-11

To propose nonparametric double robust machine learning in variable importance analyses of medical conditions for health spending. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. I evaluate how much more, on average, commercially insured enrollees with each of 26 of the most prevalent medical conditions cost per year after controlling for demographics and other medical conditions. This is accomplished within the nonparametric targeted learning framework, which incorporates ensemble machine learning. Previous literature studying the impact of medical conditions on health care spending has almost exclusively focused on parametric risk adjustment; thus, I compare my approach to parametric regression. My results demonstrate that multiple sclerosis, congestive heart failure, severe cancers, major depression and bipolar disorders, and chronic hepatitis are the most costly medical conditions on average per individual. These findings differed from those obtained using parametric regression. The literature may be underestimating the spending contributions of several medical conditions, which is a potentially critical oversight. If current methods are not capturing the true incremental effect of medical conditions, undesirable incentives related to care may remain. Further work is needed to directly study these issues in the context of federal formulas. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Energetic and exergetic analyses of a variable compression ratio spark ignition gas engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Javaheri, A.; Esfahanian, V.; Salavati-Zadeh, A.; Darzi, M.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Effects of CR and λ on CNG SI ICE 1st and 2nd law analyses are experimentally studied. • The performance of pure methane and a real CNG are observed and compared. • The ratio of actual to Otto cycle thermal efficiencies is 0.78 for all cases. • At least 25.5% of destructed availability is due to combustion irreversibility. • With decrease in methane content, CNG shows more combustion irreversibility. - Abstract: Considering the significance of obtaining higher efficiencies from internal combustion engines (ICE) along with the growing role of natural gas as a fuel, the present work is set to explore the effects of compression ratio (CR hereafter) and air/fuel equivalence ratio (AFER hereafter) on the energy and exergy potentials in a gas-fueled spark ignition internal combustion engine. Experiments are carried out using a single cylinder, port injection, water cooled, variable compression ratio (VCR hereafter), spark ignition engine at a constant engine speed of 2000 rpm. The study involves CRs of 12, 14 and 16 and 10 AFERs between 0.8 and 1.25. Pure methane is utilized for the analysis. In addition, a natural gas blend with the minimum methane content among Iranian gas sources is also tested in order to investigate the effect of real natural gas on findings. The energy analysis involves input fuel power, indicated power and losses due to high temperature of exhaust gases and their unburned content, blow-by and heat loss. The exergy analysis is carried out for availability input and piston, exhaust, and losses availabilities along with destructed entropy. The analysis indicates an increase in the ratio of thermo-mechanical exhaust availability to fuel availability by CR with a maximum near stoichiometry, whereas it is shown that chemical exhaust exergy is not dependent on CR and reduces with AFER. In addition, it is indicated that the ratio of actual cycle to Otto cycle thermal efficiencies is about constant (about 0.784) with changing CR

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Stefanie L; French, David P

2014-02-05

Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which they are measured. Previous studies may have overestimated the extent of

Hanseniaspora uvarum from winemaking environments show spatial and temporal genetic clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warren eAlbertin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Hanseniaspora uvarum is one of the most abundant yeast species found on grapes and in grape must, at least before the onset of alcoholic fermentation which is usually performed by Saccharomyces species. The aim of this study was to characterise the genetic and phenotypic variability within the H. uvarum species. One hundred and fifteen strains isolated from winemaking environments in different geographical origins were analysed using 11 microsatellite markers and a subset of 47 strains were analysed by AFLP. H. uvarum isolates clustered mainly on the basis of their geographical localisation as revealed by microsatellites. In addition, a strong clustering based on year of isolation was evidenced, indicating that the genetic diversity of Hanseniaspora uvarum isolates was related to both spatial and temporal variations. Conversely, clustering analysis based on AFLP data provided a different picture with groups showing no particular characteristics, but provided higher strain discrimination. This result indicated that AFLP approaches are inadequate to establish the genetic relationship between individuals, but allowed good strain discrimination. At the phenotypic level, several extracellular enzymatic activities of enological relevance (pectinase, chitinase, protease, β-glucosidase were measured but showed low diversity. The impact of environmental factors of enological interest (temperature, anaerobia and copper addition on growth was also assessed and showed poor variation. Altogether, this work provided both new analytical tool (microsatellites and new insights into the genetic and phenotypic diversity of H. uvarum, a yeast species that has previously been identified as a potential candidate for co-inoculation in grape must, but whose intraspecific variability had never been fully assessed.

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

2008-02-15

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

Comparative Analyses of Nonpathogenic, Opportunistic, and Totally Pathogenic Mycobacteria Reveal Genomic and Biochemical Variabilities and Highlight the Survival Attributes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Yadvir; Kohli, Sakshi; Ahmad, Javeed; Ehtesham, Nasreen Z.; Tyagi, Anil K.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Mycobacterial evolution involves various processes, such as genome reduction, gene cooption, and critical gene acquisition. Our comparative genome size analysis of 44 mycobacterial genomes revealed that the nonpathogenic (NP) genomes were bigger than those of opportunistic (OP) or totally pathogenic (TP) mycobacteria, with the TP genomes being smaller yet variable in size—their genomic plasticity reflected their ability to evolve and survive under various environmental conditions. From the 44 mycobacterial species, 13 species, representing TP, OP, and NP, were selected for genomic-relatedness analyses. Analysis of homologous protein-coding genes shared between Mycobacterium indicus pranii (NP), Mycobacterium intracellulare ATCC 13950 (OP), and Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv (TP) revealed that 4,995 (i.e., ~95%) M. indicaus pranii proteins have homology with M. intracellulare, whereas the homologies among M. indicus pranii, M. intracellulare ATCC 13950, and M. tuberculosis H37Rv were significantly lower. A total of 4,153 (~79%) M. indicus pranii proteins and 4,093 (~79%) M. intracellulare ATCC 13950 proteins exhibited homology with the M. tuberculosis H37Rv proteome, while 3,301 (~82%) and 3,295 (~82%) M. tuberculosis H37Rv proteins showed homology with M. indicus pranii and M. intracellulare ATCC 13950 proteomes, respectively. Comparative metabolic pathway analyses of TP/OP/NP mycobacteria showed enzymatic plasticity between M. indicus pranii (NP) and M. intracellulare ATCC 13950 (OP), Mycobacterium avium 104 (OP), and M. tuberculosis H37Rv (TP). Mycobacterium tuberculosis seems to have acquired novel alternate pathways with possible roles in metabolism, host-pathogen interactions, virulence, and intracellular survival, and by implication some of these could be potential drug targets. PMID:25370496

Continuous variable tripartite entanglement from twin nonlinearities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, M K; Bradley, A S

2006-01-01

In this work, we analyse and compare the continuous variable tripartite entanglement available from the use of two concurrent or cascaded χ (2) nonlinearities. We examine both idealized travelling-wave models and more experimentally realistic intracavity models, showing that tripartite entangled outputs are readily producible. These may be a useful resource for applications such as quantum cryptography and teleportation

A canonical neural mechanism for behavioral variability

Science.gov (United States)

Darshan, Ran; Wood, William E.; Peters, Susan; Leblois, Arthur; Hansel, David

2017-05-01

The ability to generate variable movements is essential for learning and adjusting complex behaviours. This variability has been linked to the temporal irregularity of neuronal activity in the central nervous system. However, how neuronal irregularity actually translates into behavioural variability is unclear. Here we combine modelling, electrophysiological and behavioural studies to address this issue. We demonstrate that a model circuit comprising topographically organized and strongly recurrent neural networks can autonomously generate irregular motor behaviours. Simultaneous recordings of neurons in singing finches reveal that neural correlations increase across the circuit driving song variability, in agreement with the model predictions. Analysing behavioural data, we find remarkable similarities in the babbling statistics of 5-6-month-old human infants and juveniles from three songbird species and show that our model naturally accounts for these `universal' statistics.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

Insights into hydroclimatic variability of Southern California since 125 ka, from multi-proxy analyses of alpine lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, K. C.; MacDonald, G. M.; Kirby, M.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic variability is especially important in California, a water-stressed and increasingly populous region. We assess the range of past hydroclimatic sensitivity and variability in the San Bernardino Mountains of Southern California based on 125 ka of lacustrine sediment records. Geochemistry, charcoal and pollen highlight periods of sustained moisture, aridity and sudden variability driven by orbital and oceanic variations. Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) is one such period of greater moisture availability that lasted c. 30 kyr, with smaller-scale perturbations likely reflect North Atlantic Dansgaard-Oeschgar events. Past glacial periods, MIS 4 and MIS 2, display high-amplitude changes. These include periods of reduced forest cover that span millennia, indicating long-lasting aridity. Rapid forest expansion also occurs, marking sudden shifts towards wet conditions. Fire regimes have also changed in tandem with hydroclimate and vegetation. Higher-resolution analysis of the past 10 ka shows that Southern California hydroclimate was broadly similar to other regions of the Southwest and Great Basin, including an orbital and oceanic-driven wet Early Holocene, dry Mid-Holocene, and highly variable Late Holocene. Shorter-term pluvial conditions occur throughout the Holocene, with episodic moisture likely derived from a Pacific source.

Genetic variability of Italian Heavy Draught Horse

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabio Maretto

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the genetic variability of the Italian Heavy Draught Horse (IHDH breed using a panel of 23 microsatellite markers. We also compared the population structure of the IHDH to other two unrelated breeds (Italian Haflinger, IH and Quarter Horse, QH. The IHDH showed a genetic variability comparable with other European heavy draught horse breeds and with the IH and QH breeds analyzed. Clustering analyses using a posterior Bayesian approach clearly differentiated the three breeds; it also showed a fragmentation of the IHDH in three subpopulations that need to be further investigated. These findings are an indicator of the present situation of the IHDH and will contribute to the conservation and implementation of the selection programme for this breed.

24-hour aortic blood pressure variability showed a stronger association with carotid damage than 24-hour brachial blood pressure variability: The SAFAR study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Shikai; Chi, Chen; Protogerou, Athanase D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques; Argyris, Antonis A; Nasothimiou, Efthimia G; Sfikakis, Petros P; Papaioannou, Theodore G; Xu, Henry; Zhang, Yi; Xu, Yawei

2018-03-01

We aim to compare 24-hour aortic blood pressure variability (BPV) with brachial BPV in relation to carotid damage as estimated by carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and cross-sectional area (CCSA). Four hundred and forty five individuals received brachial and aortic 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring with a validated device (Mobil-O-Graph). Systolic BPV was estimated by average real variability (ARV) and time-weighted standard deviation (wSD). In multiple logistic regression analysis, CIMT > 900 μm was significantly and independently associated with aortic ARV (OR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.04-1.84), aortic wSD (OR = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.19-2.29) and brachial ARV (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.07-2.18), but not with brachial wSD. CCSA > 90th percentile was significantly and independently associated with aortic ARV (OR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.07-2.10) and wSD (OR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.12-2.56), but not with brachial BPVs. In receiver operator characteristics curve analysis, aortic wSD identified CCSA > 90th percentile better than brachial wSD (AUC: 0.73 vs 0.68, P < .01). In conclusion, aortic 24-hour systolic BPV showed a slightly stronger association with carotid damage than brachial BPV. ©2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fixed and variable cost of automobiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mulalic, Ismir; Rouwendal, Jan

costs of various quality aspects using an extensive Danish data set. We show that under suitable assumptions the marginal willingness to pay for quality aspects is a structural parameter of the consumer’s preference. We use our results to investigate this structural parameter and study its relationship......Recent empirical analyses have found strong reactions of car prices to changes in fuel costs. We develop a model of car quality choice to further investigate this relationship. We show that in the empirically relevant case quality characteristics increase fixed as well as variable costs, and our...

Immature granulocyte detection by the SE-9000 haematology analyser during pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Suárez, A; Pascual, V T; Gimenez, M T F; Hernández, J F S

2003-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the nature of the alarm for immature granulocytes appearing in haemograms from pregnant women, as detected by the immature cell information channel (IMI) of the SE-9000 automated haematology analyser. Of all tests run on pregnant women in a 4-month period (n = 698), the first 100 haemograms with immature granulocyte alarms (14.33%) were collected. Each of these samples was then stained with Wright-Giemsa stain. The following variables were also analysed: age of the mother, trimester and days of gestation, type of delivery, weight and sex of the baby, and Apgar score. Most pregnant women were in the third trimester of gestation (82%) when an alarm was noted on the IMI channel. Of the patients, 62% had normal deliveries. The most frequent complication was obstructed delivery (23%). Mean percentages by microscopic counts of band cells, metamyelocytes, and myelocytes were 2.99, 0.45, and 0.19%, respectively. There was a statistically significant correlation for all cell types between the SE-9000 and the manual count method. No association was observed between the presence of immature granulocytes and the clinical variables analysed. The SE-9000 analyser shows high sensitivity in the IMI channel for detection of immature forms.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

How players exploit variability and regularity of game actions in female volleyball teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Ana; Coutinho, Patrícia; Silva, Pedro; Davids, Keith; Mesquita, Isabel

2017-05-01

Variability analysis has been used to understand how competitive constraints shape different behaviours in team sports. In this study, we analysed and compared variability of tactical performance indices in players within complex I at two different competitive levels in volleyball. We also examined whether variability was influenced by set type and period. Eight matches from the 2012 Olympics competition and from the Portuguese national league in the 2014-2015 season were analysed (1496 rallies). Variability of setting conditions, attack zone, attack tempo and block opposition was assessed using Shannon entropy measures. Magnitude-based inferences were used to analyse the practical significance of compared values of selected variables. Results showed differences between elite and national teams for all variables, which were co-adapted to the competitive constraints of set type and set periods. Elite teams exploited system stability in setting conditions and block opposition, but greater unpredictability in zone and tempo of attack. These findings suggest that uncertainty in attacking actions was a key factor that could only be achieved with greater performance stability in other game actions. Data suggested how coaches could help setters develop the capacity to play at faster tempos, diversifying attack zones, especially at critical moments in competition.

The Relationship between Housing Finance and Macroeconomics Variables in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binti Mohd Shukor Nur Baizura

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Housing finance is one of the factors that contribute in the overall economy growth of the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of housing finance variable and the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. By adopting time series technique of Vector Auto regression (VAR and Impulse Response to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic and housing finance variable. The cointegration result shows that there exists a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variable and housing finance variable. The finding from impulse response function indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP response positively to the Primary Mortgage Market (PMM, which shows that during the good economy there are more housing loan extends by the banking institution. Meanwhile, interest rate response negatively to Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM, which implies that during the financial crisis, more housing loan sold to the Secondary Mortgage Market as one of the measure by the government to increase liquidity in banking institutions. As a conclusion, there is presence of relationship between the variable which change in one variable will affect the other variable in the long run.

Alcohol and tobacco use and cognitive-motivational variables in school settings: effects on academic performance in Spanish adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Inglés, Cándido J; Torregrosa, María S; Rodríguez-Marín, Jesús; García del Castillo, José A; Gázquez, José J; García-Fernández, José M; Delgado, Beatriz

2013-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyze: (a) the relationship between alcohol and tobacco use and academic performance, and (b) the predictive role of psycho-educational factors and alcohol and tobacco abuse on academic performance in a sample of 352 Spanish adolescents from grades 8 to 10 of Compulsory Secondary Education. The Self-Description Questionnaire-II, the Sydney Attribution Scale, and the Achievement Goal Tendencies Questionnaire were administered in order to analyze cognitive-motivational variables. Alcohol and tobacco abuse, sex, and grade retention were also measured using self-reported questions. Academic performance was measured by school records. Frequency analyses and logistic regression analyses were used. Frequency analyses revealed that students who abuse of tobacco and alcohol show a higher rate of poor academic performance. Logistic regression analyses showed that health behaviours, and educational and cognitive-motivational variables exert a different effect on academic performance depending on the academic area analyzed. These results point out that not only academic, but also health variables should be address to improve academic performance in adolescence.

The variability problem of normal human walking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Erik B; Alkjær, Tine

2012-01-01

Previous investigations have suggested considerable inter-individual variability in the time course pattern of net joint moments during normal human walking, although the limited sample sizes precluded statistical analyses. The purpose of the present study was to obtain joint moment patterns from...... a group of normal subjects and to test whether or not the expected differences would prove to be statistically significant. Fifteen healthy male subjects were recorded on video while they walked across two force platforms. Ten kinematic and kinetic parameters were selected and input to a statistical...... cluster analysis to determine whether or not the 15 subjects could be divided into different 'families' (clusters) of walking strategy. The net joint moments showed a variability corroborating earlier reports. The cluster analysis showed that the 15 subjects could be grouped into two clusters of 5 and 10...

Ultraviolet and X-ray variability of NGC 4051 over 45 days with XMM-Newton and Swift

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alston, W.N.; Vaughan, S.; Uttley, P.

2013-01-01

We analyse 15 XMM-Newton observations of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 4051 obtained over 45 d to determine the ultraviolet (UV) light curve variability characteristics and search for correlated UV/X-ray emission. The UV light curve shows variability on all time-scales, however with lower fractional rms

Ratio index variables or ANCOVA? Fisher's cats revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Yu-Kang; Law, Graham R; Ellison, George T H; Gilthorpe, Mark S

2010-01-01

Over 60 years ago Ronald Fisher demonstrated a number of potential pitfalls with statistical analyses using ratio variables. Nonetheless, these pitfalls are largely overlooked in contemporary clinical and epidemiological research, which routinely uses ratio variables in statistical analyses. This article aims to demonstrate how very different findings can be generated as a result of less than perfect correlations among the data used to generate ratio variables. These imperfect correlations result from measurement error and random biological variation. While the former can often be reduced by improvements in measurement, random biological variation is difficult to estimate and eliminate in observational studies. Moreover, wherever the underlying biological relationships among epidemiological variables are unclear, and hence the choice of statistical model is also unclear, the different findings generated by different analytical strategies can lead to contradictory conclusions. Caution is therefore required when interpreting analyses of ratio variables whenever the underlying biological relationships among the variables involved are unspecified or unclear. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variability in reaction time performance of younger and older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Hultsch, David F; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Dixon, Roger A

2002-03-01

Age differences in three basic types of variability were examined: variability between persons (diversity), variability within persons across tasks (dispersion), and variability within persons across time (inconsistency). Measures of variability were based on latency performance from four measures of reaction time (RT) performed by a total of 99 younger adults (ages 17--36 years) and 763 older adults (ages 54--94 years). Results indicated that all three types of variability were greater in older compared with younger participants even when group differences in speed were statistically controlled. Quantile-quantile plots showed age and task differences in the shape of the inconsistency distributions. Measures of within-person variability (dispersion and inconsistency) were positively correlated. Individual differences in RT inconsistency correlated negatively with level of performance on measures of perceptual speed, working memory, episodic memory, and crystallized abilities. Partial set correlation analyses indicated that inconsistency predicted cognitive performance independent of level of performance. The results indicate that variability of performance is an important indicator of cognitive functioning and aging.

Tree Ring Analyses Unlock a Century of Hydroclimatic Variability Across the Himalayas

Science.gov (United States)

Brunello, C. F.; Andermann, C.; Helle, G.; Comiti, F.; Tonon, G.; Hovius, N.

2017-12-01

Climate change has altered precipitation patterns and impacted the spatio-temporal distribution and availability of water in high mountain environments. For example, intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) increases the potential for moisture laden air to breach the Himalayan orographic barrier and penetrate into the arid, elevated southern Tibetan Plateau, with geomorphological and hydrological consequences. Such trends should be considered against a solid background, but a consistent record of centennial monsoon dynamics in the trans-Himalayan region has never been developed. Instrumental data are sparse and only cover a limited time period as well as remotely sensed information. Meanwhile, models have major systematic bias and substantial uncertainty in reproducing ISM interannual variability. In this context, hydro-climatic proxies, such as oxygen stable isotope ratios in cellulose of tree rings, are a valuable source of data, especially because isotope mass spectroscopy can unlock yearly resolved information by tracing the isotopic signature (18O) stored within each growth ring. Here we present three centennial records of monsoon dynamics, along a latitudinal transect, spanning a pronounced precipitation gradient across the Himalayan orogen. Three sites were selected along the Kali Gandaki valley in the central Himalayas (Nepal), this valley connects the wet, monsoon dominated Gangetic plain with the arid Tibetan Plateau. Our transect covers the sensitive northern end of the precipitation gradient, located in the upper part of the catchment. Our results show that inter-annual variation of monsoon strength can be reconstructed by tree ring δ18O. The inferred monsoon dynamics are compared against independent constraints on precipitation, snow cover and river discharge. Different water sources contribute disproportionally at the three sites, reflecting spatial and temporal shifts of the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. These two dominant

Variables cognitivas y metacognitivas en la resolución de problemas de química: propuesta de estrategias didácticas Cognitive and metacognitive variables in chemistry problem solving: a proposal of didactic strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joan Josep Solaz-Portolés

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents and classifies the cognitive and metacognitive variables involved in the processes that students execute in problem solving. Moreover, it shows how these variables affect the students success in problem solving. These variables are classified in: piagetian and neo-piagetian, representational, metacognitive and transfer of learning. In the first group of variables it is discussed formal reasoning ability and other neo-piagetian factors. In the second group of variables it is analysed mental models and external representations. Implications for chemistry education are collected as a proposal of didactic strategies in the classroom.

A new approach to analyse longitudinal epidemiological data with an excess of zeros.

Science.gov (United States)

Spriensma, Alette S; Hajos, Tibor R S; de Boer, Michiel R; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R

2013-02-20

Within longitudinal epidemiological research, 'count' outcome variables with an excess of zeros frequently occur. Although these outcomes are frequently analysed with a linear mixed model, or a Poisson mixed model, a two-part mixed model would be better in analysing outcome variables with an excess of zeros. Therefore, objective of this paper was to introduce the relatively 'new' method of two-part joint regression modelling in longitudinal data analysis for outcome variables with an excess of zeros, and to compare the performance of this method to current approaches. Within an observational longitudinal dataset, we compared three techniques; two 'standard' approaches (a linear mixed model, and a Poisson mixed model), and a two-part joint mixed model (a binomial/Poisson mixed distribution model), including random intercepts and random slopes. Model fit indicators, and differences between predicted and observed values were used for comparisons. The analyses were performed with STATA using the GLLAMM procedure. Regarding the random intercept models, the two-part joint mixed model (binomial/Poisson) performed best. Adding random slopes for time to the models changed the sign of the regression coefficient for both the Poisson mixed model and the two-part joint mixed model (binomial/Poisson) and resulted into a much better fit. This paper showed that a two-part joint mixed model is a more appropriate method to analyse longitudinal data with an excess of zeros compared to a linear mixed model and a Poisson mixed model. However, in a model with random slopes for time a Poisson mixed model also performed remarkably well.

BLAZAR OPTICAL VARIABILITY IN THE PALOMAR-QUEST SURVEY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Anne; Baltay, Charles; Coppi, Paolo; Ellman, Nancy; Jerke, Jonathan; Rabinowitz, David; Scalzo, Richard

2009-01-01

We study the ensemble optical variability of 276 flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and 86 BL Lacs in the Palomar-QUEST Survey with the goal of searching for common fluctuation properties, examining the range of behavior across the sample, and characterizing the appearance of blazars in such a survey so that future work can more easily identify such objects. The survey, which covers 15,000 deg 2 multiple times over 3.5 years, allows for the first ensemble blazar study of this scale. Variability amplitude distributions are shown for the FSRQ and BL Lac samples for numerous time lags, and also studied through structure function analyses. Individual blazars show a wide range of variability amplitudes, timescales, and duty cycles. Of the best-sampled objects, 35% are seen to vary by more than 0.4 mag; for these, the fraction of measurements contributing to the high-amplitude variability ranges constantly from about 5% to 80%. Blazar variability has some similarities to that of type I quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) but includes larger amplitude fluctuations on all timescales. FSRQ variability amplitudes are particularly similar to those of QSOs on timescales of several months, suggesting significant contributions from the accretion disk to the variable flux at these timescales. Optical variability amplitudes are correlated with the maximum apparent velocities of the radio jet for the subset of FSRQs with MOJAVE Very Long Baseline Array measurements, implying that the optically variable flux's strength is typically related to that of the radio emission. We also study CRATES radio-selected FSRQ candidates, which show similar variability characteristics to known FSRQs; this suggests a high purity for the CRATES sample.

Effect of chamber characteristics, loading and analysis time on motility and kinetic variables analysed with the CASA-mot system in goat sperm.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Gallego, R; Sadeghi, S; Blasco, E; Soler, C; Yániz, J L; Silvestre, M A

2017-02-01

Several factors unrelated to the semen samples could be influencing in the sperm motility analysis. The aim of the present research was to study the effect of four chambers with different characteristics, namely; slide-coverslip, Spermtrack, ISAS D4C10, and ISAS D4C20 on the sperm motility. The filling procedure (drop or capillarity) and analysis time (0, 120 and 240s), depth of chamber (10 or 20μm) and field on motility variables were analysed by use of the CASA-mot system in goat sperm. Use of the drop-filling chambers resulted in greater values than capillarity-filling chambers for all sperm motility and kinetic variables, except for LIN (64.5% compared with 56.3% of motility for drop- and capillarity-filling chambers respectively, PCASA-mot system with a drop-loaded chamber within 2min after filling the chamber. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio

2018-05-01

Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.

Optical Variability of Active Galactic Nuclei

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kozłowski, Szymon, E-mail: simkoz@astrouw.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw, Warsaw (Poland)

2017-09-21

Variability studies of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) typically use either power spectral density (PSD) and structure function (SF) analyses or direct modeling of light curves with the damped random walk (DRW) and the continuous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models. A fair fraction of research publications on the subject are flawed, and simply report incorrect results, because they lack a deep understanding of where these methods originate from and what their limitations are. For example, SF analyses typically lack or use a wrong noise subtraction procedure, leading to flat SFs. DRW, on the other hand, can only be used if the experiment length is sufficient, at least ten times the signal decorrelation time scale τ, and if the data show the power-law SF slope of γ ≡ 0.5.

A new approach to analyse longitudinal epidemiological data with an excess of zeros

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spriensma, Alette S.; Hajos, Tibor R. S.; de Boer, Michiel R.; Heymans, Martijn W.; Twisk, Jos W. R.

2013-01-01

Background: Within longitudinal epidemiological research, 'count' outcome variables with an excess of zeros frequently occur. Although these outcomes are frequently analysed with a linear mixed model, or a Poisson mixed model, a two-part mixed model would be better in analysing outcome variables

The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2015-06-01

To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression coefficients and standard errors, on the empirical coverage of estimated confidence intervals, and on the accuracy of the estimated R(2) of the fitted model. A minimum of approximately two SPV tended to result in estimation of regression coefficients with relative bias of less than 10%. Furthermore, with this minimum number of SPV, the standard errors of the regression coefficients were accurately estimated and estimated confidence intervals had approximately the advertised coverage rates. A much higher number of SPV were necessary to minimize bias in estimating the model R(2), although adjusted R(2) estimates behaved well. The bias in estimating the model R(2) statistic was inversely proportional to the magnitude of the proportion of variation explained by the population regression model. Linear regression models require only two SPV for adequate estimation of regression coefficients, standard errors, and confidence intervals. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new approach to analyse longitudinal epidemiological data with an excess of zeros

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spriensma, A.S.; Hajós, T.R.S.; de Boer, M.R.; Heijmans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.

2013-01-01

Background: Within longitudinal epidemiological research, count outcome variables with an excess of zeros frequently occur. Although these outcomes are frequently analysed with a linear mixed model, or a Poisson mixed model, a two-part mixed model would be better in analysing outcome variables with

A new variable stiffness suspension system: passive case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. M. Anubi

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the design, analysis, and experimental validation of the passive case of a variable stiffness suspension system. The central concept is based on a recently designed variable stiffness mechanism. It consists of a horizontal control strut and a vertical strut. The main idea is to vary the load transfer ratio by moving the location of the point of attachment of the vertical strut to the car body. This movement is controlled passively using the horizontal strut. The system is analyzed using an L2-gain analysis based on the concept of energy dissipation. The analyses, simulation, and experimental results show that the variable stiffness suspension achieves better performance than the constant stiffness counterpart. The performance criteria used are; ride comfort, characterized by the car body acceleration, suspension deflection, and road holding, characterized by tire deflection.

Capturing heterogeneity in gene expression studies by surrogate variable analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey T Leek

2007-09-01

Full Text Available It has unambiguously been shown that genetic, environmental, demographic, and technical factors may have substantial effects on gene expression levels. In addition to the measured variable(s of interest, there will tend to be sources of signal due to factors that are unknown, unmeasured, or too complicated to capture through simple models. We show that failing to incorporate these sources of heterogeneity into an analysis can have widespread and detrimental effects on the study. Not only can this reduce power or induce unwanted dependence across genes, but it can also introduce sources of spurious signal to many genes. This phenomenon is true even for well-designed, randomized studies. We introduce "surrogate variable analysis" (SVA to overcome the problems caused by heterogeneity in expression studies. SVA can be applied in conjunction with standard analysis techniques to accurately capture the relationship between expression and any modeled variables of interest. We apply SVA to disease class, time course, and genetics of gene expression studies. We show that SVA increases the biological accuracy and reproducibility of analyses in genome-wide expression studies.

Van ‘t Hoff global analyses of variable temperature isothermal titration calorimetry data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freiburger, Lee A.; Auclair, Karine; Mittermaier, Anthony K.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ▶ We developed a global fitting strategy for ITC data collected at multiple temperatures. ▶ This method does not require prior knowledge of the binding mechanism. ▶ Monte Carlo simulations show that the approach improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters. ▶ The method is used to study coupled folding/binding in aminoglycoside 6′-N-acetyltransferase-Ii. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) can provide detailed information on the thermodynamics of biomolecular interactions in the form of equilibrium constants, K A , and enthalpy changes, ΔH A . A powerful application of this technique involves analyzing the temperature dependences of ITC-derived K A and ΔH A values to gain insight into thermodynamic linkage between binding and additional equilibria, such as protein folding. We recently developed a general method for global analysis of variable temperature ITC data that significantly improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters and requires no prior knowledge of the coupled equilibria. Here we report detailed validation of this method using Monte Carlo simulations and an application to study coupled folding and binding in an aminoglycoside acetyltransferase enzyme.

Heart-rate variability and precompetitive anxiety in swimmers

OpenAIRE

Cervantes Blásquez, Julio César

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to test the utility of heart-rate variability (HRV) analyses as a noninvasive means of quantifying cardiac autonomic regulation during precompetitive anxiety situations in swimmers. Psychophysiological state evaluation of 10 volunteer «master» swimmers (6 women and 4 men) was obtained by comparing baseline training condition (TC) with competition condition (CC). Self-evaluation of precompetitive somatic anxiety measured by CSAI-2 showed significant increase from the ...

Multi-site study of diffusion metric variability: effects of site, vendor, field strength, and echo time on regions-of-interest and histogram-bin analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Helmer, K G; Chou, M-C; Preciado, R I; Gimi, B; Rollins, N K; Song, A; Turner, J; Mori, S

2016-02-27

It is now common for magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) based multi-site trials to include diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) as part of the protocol. It is also common for these sites to possess MR scanners of different manufacturers, different software and hardware, and different software licenses. These differences mean that scanners may not be able to acquire data with the same number of gradient amplitude values and number of available gradient directions. Variability can also occur in achievable b-values and minimum echo times. The challenge of a multi-site study then, is to create a common protocol by understanding and then minimizing the effects of scanner variability and identifying reliable and accurate diffusion metrics. This study describes the effect of site, scanner vendor, field strength, and TE on two diffusion metrics: the first moment of the diffusion tensor field (mean diffusivity, MD), and the fractional anisotropy (FA) using two common analyses (region-of-interest and mean-bin value of whole brain histograms). The goal of the study was to identify sources of variability in diffusion-sensitized imaging and their influence on commonly reported metrics. The results demonstrate that the site, vendor, field strength, and echo time all contribute to variability in FA and MD, though to different extent. We conclude that characterization of the variability of DTI metrics due to site, vendor, field strength, and echo time is a worthwhile step in the construction of multi-center trials.

Fatigue Crack Propagation Under Variable Amplitude Loading Analyses Based on Plastic Energy Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sofiane Maachou

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Plasticity effects at the crack tip had been recognized as “motor” of crack propagation, the growth of cracks is related to the existence of a crack tip plastic zone, whose formation and intensification is accompanied by energy dissipation. In the actual state of knowledge fatigue crack propagation is modeled using crack closure concept. The fatigue crack growth behavior under constant amplitude and variable amplitude loading of the aluminum alloy 2024 T351 are analyzed using in terms energy parameters. In the case of VAL (variable amplitude loading tests, the evolution of the hysteretic energy dissipated per block is shown similar with that observed under constant amplitude loading. A linear relationship between the crack growth rate and the hysteretic energy dissipated per block is obtained at high growth rates. For lower growth rates values, the relationship between crack growth rate and hysteretic energy dissipated per block can represented by a power law. In this paper, an analysis of fatigue crack propagation under variable amplitude loading based on energetic approach is proposed.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, P.G.

1988-08-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

ANALYSES OF GENETIC VARIABILITY IN LENTINULA EDODES THROUGH MYCELIA RESPONSES TO DIFFERENT ABIOTIC CONDITIONS AND RAPD MOLECULAR MARKERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maki Cristina Sayuri

2001-01-01

Full Text Available The growth of thirty-four Lentinula edodes strains submitted to different mycelial cultivation conditions (pH and temperature was evaluated and strain variability was assessed by RAPD molecular markers. The growth at three pH values (5, 6 and 7 and four different temperatures (16, 25, 28 and 37ºC was measured using the in vitro mycelial development rate and water retention as parameters. Mycelial cultivation was successful at all pH tested, while the ideal temperature for mycelial cultivation ranged between 25 and 28ºC. The water content was lower in strains grown at 37ºC. Among 20 OPA primers (Operon Technologies, Inc. used for the RAPD analyses, seventeen presented good polymorphism (OPA01 to OPA05, OPA07 to OPA14, OPA17 to OPA20. The clustering based on similarity coefficients allowed the separation of strain in two groups with different geographic origins.

Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Dondeynaz, C.; Carmona Moreno, C.; Céspedes Lorente, J. J.

2012-10-01

The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 42 indicators (called variables in this paper) from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries. This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality, and finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented. Based on 25 relevant variables, the relationships between variables are described and organised into five factors (HDP - Human Development against Poverty, AP - Human Activity Pressure on water resources, WR - Water Resources, ODA - Official Development Aid, CEC - Country Environmental Concern). Linear regression methods are used to identify key variables having influence on water supply and sanitation. First analysis indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor negatively influencing the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children's health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Irrigation is also enhancing Water Supply service thanks to multi-purpose infrastructure. Five country profiles are also created to deeper understand and synthetize the amount of information gathered. This new

Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Dondeynaz

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS, being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation. These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database containing 42 indicators (called variables in this paper from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries. This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality, and finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented. Based on 25 relevant variables, the relationships between variables are described and organised into five factors (HDP – Human Development against Poverty, AP – Human Activity Pressure on water resources, WR – Water Resources, ODA – Official Development Aid, CEC – Country Environmental Concern. Linear regression methods are used to identify key variables having influence on water supply and sanitation. First analysis indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor negatively influencing the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children's health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Irrigation is also enhancing Water Supply service thanks to multi-purpose infrastructure. Five country profiles are also created to deeper understand and synthetize the amount of information gathered

Surfing wave climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Genetic Variability of Show Jumping Attributes in Young Horses Commencing Competing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Próchniak

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study was to select traits that may constitute a prospective criterion for breeding value prediction of young horses. The results of 1,232 starts of 894 four-, five-, six-, and seven-year-old horses, obtained during jumping championships for young horses which had not been evaluated in, alternative to championships, training centres were analyed. Nine traits were chosen of those recorded: ranking in the championship, elimination (y/n, conformation, rating of style on day one, two, and three, and penalty points on day one, two, and three of a championship. (Covariance components were estimated via the Gibbs sampling procedure and adequate (covariance component ratios were calculated. Statistical classifications were trait dependent but all fitted random additive genetic and permanent environment effects. It was found that such characteristics as penalty points and jumping style are potential indicators of jumping ability, and the genetic variability of the traits was within the range of 14% to 27%. Given the low genetic correlations between the conformation and other results achieved on the parkour, the relevance of assessment of conformation in four-years-old horses has been questioned.

Genetic variability in captive populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula.

Science.gov (United States)

Santiago, Leandro R; Francisco, Flávio O; Jaffé, Rodolfo; Arias, Maria C

2016-08-01

Low genetic variability has normally been considered a consequence of animal husbandry and a major contributing factor to declining bee populations. Here, we performed a molecular analysis of captive and wild populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula, one of the most commonly kept species across South America. Microsatellite analyses showed similar genetic variability between wild and captive populations However, captive populations showed lower mitochondrial genetic variability. Male-mediated gene flow, transport and division of nests are suggested as the most probable explanations for the observed patterns of genetic structure. We conclude that increasing the number of colonies kept through nest divisions does not negatively affect nuclear genetic variability, which seems to be maintained by small-scale male dispersal and human-mediated nest transport. However, the transport of nests from distant localities should be practiced with caution given the high genetic differentiation observed between samples from western and eastern areas. The high genetic structure verified is the result of a long-term evolutionary process, and bees from distant localities may represent unique evolutionary lineages.

The Need for Speed in Rodent Locomotion Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Batka, Richard J.; Brown, Todd J.; Mcmillan, Kathryn P.; Meadows, Rena M.; Jones, Kathryn J.; Haulcomb, Melissa M.

2016-01-01

Locomotion analysis is now widely used across many animal species to understand the motor defects in disease, functional recovery following neural injury, and the effectiveness of various treatments. More recently, rodent locomotion analysis has become an increasingly popular method in a diverse range of research. Speed is an inseparable aspect of locomotion that is still not fully understood, and its effects are often not properly incorporated while analyzing data. In this hybrid manuscript, we accomplish three things: (1) review the interaction between speed and locomotion variables in rodent studies, (2) comprehensively analyze the relationship between speed and 162 locomotion variables in a group of 16 wild-type mice using the CatWalk gait analysis system, and (3) develop and test a statistical method in which locomotion variables are analyzed and reported in the context of speed. Notable results include the following: (1) over 90% of variables, reported by CatWalk, were dependent on speed with an average R2 value of 0.624, (2) most variables were related to speed in a nonlinear manner, (3) current methods of controlling for speed are insufficient, and (4) the linear mixed model is an appropriate and effective statistical method for locomotion analyses that is inclusive of speed-dependent relationships. Given the pervasive dependency of locomotion variables on speed, we maintain that valid conclusions from locomotion analyses cannot be made unless they are analyzed and reported within the context of speed. PMID:24890845

Analyses of newly digitised and reconstructed snow series over the last 100+ years in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Scherrer, S. C.; Wüthrich, C.; Croci-Maspoli, M.; Appenzeller, C.

2010-09-01

Snow is an important socio-economic factor in the Swiss Alpine region (tourism, hydro-electricity, drinking water) and responsible for considerable natural hazards such as avalanches. In addition, high-quality long-term snow series can be used as an excellent indicator of climate change. The objectives of this study are threefold. First, suitable long-term snow series from different altitudes and regions in Switzerland have been selected, missing data digitized and the entire series quality checked. Second, the long-term snow series have been used for trend analyses over a time period >100 years. Third, snow depth series have been reconstructed using daily new snow, temperature and precipitation as input variables. This made it possible to analyse snow depth related variables such as days with snow pack. Results show that the snow cover is varying substantially on seasonal and decadal time scales. The analyses of the decadal new snow trends during the last 100 years shows unprecedented low new snow sums in the winter seasons (DJF) of the 1990s. The 100 year trend of days with snow pack reveals a significant decrease for stations below 800 m asl in the winter season (DJF) and for stations around 1800 m asl in spring (MAM). Similar results were found for seasonal new snow sums. The results of the trend analyses are also discussed with respect to temperature and precipitation trends. Finally we will also shortly discuss how especially "precious" snow measurements have been identified and incorporated in a National Basic Climatological Network (NBCN) as well as in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Signal Enhancement with Variable Span Linear Filters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benesty, Jacob; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Jesper Rindom

. Variable span filters combine the ideas of optimal linear filters with those of subspace methods, as they involve the joint diagonalization of the correlation matrices of the desired signal and the noise. The book shows how some well-known filter designs, e.g. the minimum distortion, maximum signal...... the time and STFT domains, and, lastly, in time-domain binaural enhancement. In these contexts, the properties of these filters are analyzed in terms of their noise reduction capabilities and desired signal distortion, and the analyses are validated and further explored in simulations....

The solar forcing on the 7Be-air concentration variability at ground level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talpos, Simona

2004-01-01

This paper analyses the correlation between the temporal and spatial variability of 7 Be-air concentration at ground level and the amount of precipitation. There were used the measured data from 26 stations distributed on North America, South America, Australia and Antarctica. The variability study was made using EOF and principal components analysis. The presented results show that the variability of 7 Be air concentration at ground level is simultaneously influenced by the solar cycle and some atmospheric processes like precipitation, turbulent transport, advection, etc. The solar forcing on the 7 Be variability at ground level was outlined for time-scales longer than 1 year and can be considered a global phenomenon. The atmospheric processes influence the 7 Be variability for scale shorter than one year and can be considered a local phenomenon. (author)

Karyotype Variability and Inter-Population Genomic Differences in Freshwater Ostracods (Crustacea Showing Geographical Parthenogenesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radka Symonová

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Transitions from sexual to asexual reproduction are often associated with polyploidy and increased chromosomal plasticity in asexuals. We investigated chromosomes in the freshwater ostracod species Eucypris virens (Jurine, 1820, where sexual, asexual and mixed populations can be found. Our initial karyotyping of multiple populations from Europe and North Africa, both sexual and asexual, revealed a striking variability in chromosome numbers. This would suggest that chromosomal changes are likely to be accelerated in asexuals because the constraints of meiosis are removed. Hence, we employed comparative genomic hybridization (CGH within and among sexual and asexual populations to get insights into E. virens genome arrangements. CGH disclosed substantial genomic imbalances among the populations analyzed, and three patterns of genome arrangement between these populations: 1. Only putative ribosomal DNA (rDNA-bearing regions were conserved in the two populations compared indicating a high sequence divergence between these populations. This pattern is comparable with our findings at the interspecies level of comparison; 2. Chromosomal regions were shared by both populations to a varying extent with a distinct copy number variation in pericentromeric and presumable rDNA-bearing regions. This indicates a different rate of evolution in repetitive sequences; 3. A mosaic pattern of distribution of genomic material that can be explained as non-reciprocal genetic introgression and evidence of a hybrid origin of these individuals. We show an overall increased chromosomal dynamics in E. virens that is complementary with available phylogenetic and population genetic data reporting highly differentiated diploid sexual and asexual lineages with a wide variety of genetic backgrounds.

Dynamics of heart rate variability analysed through nonlinear and linear dynamics is already impaired in young type 1 diabetic subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, Naiara M; Giacon, Thais R; Pacagnelli, Francis L; Barbosa, Marianne P C R; Valenti, Vitor E; Vanderlei, Luiz C M

2016-10-01

Autonomic diabetic neuropathy is one of the most common complications of type 1 diabetes mellitus, and studies using heart rate variability to investigate these individuals have shown inconclusive results regarding autonomic nervous system activation. Aims To investigate the dynamics of heart rate in young subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus through nonlinear and linear methods of heart rate variability. We evaluated 20 subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus and 23 healthy control subjects. We obtained the following nonlinear indices from the recurrence plot: recurrence rate (REC), determinism (DET), and Shanon entropy (ES), and we analysed indices in the frequency (LF and HF in ms2 and normalised units - nu - and LF/HF ratio) and time domains (SDNN and RMSSD), through analysis of 1000 R-R intervals, captured by a heart rate monitor. There were reduced values (p<0.05) for individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with healthy subjects in the following indices: DET, REC, ES, RMSSD, SDNN, LF (ms2), and HF (ms2). In relation to the recurrence plot, subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus demonstrated lower recurrence and greater variation in their plot, inter-group and intra-group, respectively. Young subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus have autonomic nervous system behaviour that tends to randomness compared with healthy young subjects. Moreover, this behaviour is related to reduced sympathetic and parasympathetic activity of the autonomic nervous system.

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Intraindividual variability in cognitive performance in persons with chronic fatigue syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuentes, K; Hunter, M A; Strauss, E; Hultsch, D F

2001-05-01

Studies of cognitive performance among persons with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) have yielded inconsistent results. We sought to contribute to findings in this area by examining intraindividual variability as well as level of performance in cognitive functioning. A battery of cognitive measures was administered to 14 CFS patients and 16 healthy individuals on 10 weekly occasions. Analyses comparing the two groups in terms of level of performance defined by latency and accuracy scores revealed that the CFS patients were slower but not less accurate than healthy persons. The CFS group showed greater intraindividual variability (as measured by intraindividual standard deviations and coefficients of variation) than the healthy group, although the results varied by task and time frame. Intraindividual variability was found to be stable across time and correlated across tasks at each testing occasion. Intraindividual variability also uniquely differentiated the groups. The present findings support the proposition that intraindividual variability is a meaningful indicator of cognitive functioning in CFS patients.

Variable stars in the classroom

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez-Bajo, F [Departamento de Electronica e IngenierIa Electromecanica, Escuela de IngenierIas Industriales, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda de Elvas s/n, 06071 Badajoz (Spain); Vaquero, J M [Departamento de Fisica, Escuela Politecnica, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)

2006-05-01

Variable stars offer interesting possibilities from the point of view of educational applications, from the experimental collection of data to analysis to obtain physical information. In this paper, brightness measurements of two periodic variable stars easily accessible with small telescopes are presented and analysed. This practical experiment is highly appropriate for educational use in undergraduate physics and astrophysics laboratories and allows students to approximate scientific research.

Variable stars in the classroom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez-Bajo, F; Vaquero, J M

2006-01-01

Variable stars offer interesting possibilities from the point of view of educational applications, from the experimental collection of data to analysis to obtain physical information. In this paper, brightness measurements of two periodic variable stars easily accessible with small telescopes are presented and analysed. This practical experiment is highly appropriate for educational use in undergraduate physics and astrophysics laboratories and allows students to approximate scientific research

Large-Scale No-Show Patterns and Distributions for Clinic Operational Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael L. Davies

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Patient no-shows for scheduled primary care appointments are common. Unused appointment slots reduce patient quality of care, access to services and provider productivity while increasing loss to follow-up and medical costs. This paper describes patterns of no-show variation by patient age, gender, appointment age, and type of appointment request for six individual service lines in the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA. This retrospective observational descriptive project examined 25,050,479 VHA appointments contained in individual-level records for eight years (FY07-FY14 for 555,183 patients. Multifactor analysis of variance (ANOVA was performed, with no-show rate as the dependent variable, and gender, age group, appointment age, new patient status, and service line as factors. The analyses revealed that males had higher no-show rates than females to age 65, at which point males and females exhibited similar rates. The average no-show rates decreased with age until 75–79, whereupon rates increased. As appointment age increased, males and new patients had increasing no-show rates. Younger patients are especially prone to no-show as appointment age increases. These findings provide novel information to healthcare practitioners and management scientists to more accurately characterize no-show and attendance rates and the impact of certain patient factors. Future general population data could determine whether findings from VHA data generalize to others.

Large-Scale No-Show Patterns and Distributions for Clinic Operational Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Michael L; Goffman, Rachel M; May, Jerrold H; Monte, Robert J; Rodriguez, Keri L; Tjader, Youxu C; Vargas, Dominic L

2016-02-16

Patient no-shows for scheduled primary care appointments are common. Unused appointment slots reduce patient quality of care, access to services and provider productivity while increasing loss to follow-up and medical costs. This paper describes patterns of no-show variation by patient age, gender, appointment age, and type of appointment request for six individual service lines in the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA). This retrospective observational descriptive project examined 25,050,479 VHA appointments contained in individual-level records for eight years (FY07-FY14) for 555,183 patients. Multifactor analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, with no-show rate as the dependent variable, and gender, age group, appointment age, new patient status, and service line as factors. The analyses revealed that males had higher no-show rates than females to age 65, at which point males and females exhibited similar rates. The average no-show rates decreased with age until 75-79, whereupon rates increased. As appointment age increased, males and new patients had increasing no-show rates. Younger patients are especially prone to no-show as appointment age increases. These findings provide novel information to healthcare practitioners and management scientists to more accurately characterize no-show and attendance rates and the impact of certain patient factors. Future general population data could determine whether findings from VHA data generalize to others.

Dairy shows different associations with abdominal and BMI-defined overweight: Cross-sectional analyses exploring a variety of dairy products.

Science.gov (United States)

Brouwer-Brolsma, E M; Sluik, D; Singh-Povel, C M; Feskens, E J M

2018-05-01

Previous studies have suggested weight-regulatory properties for several dairy nutrients, but population-based studies on dairy and body weight are inconclusive. We explored cross-sectional associations between dairy consumption and indicators of overweight. We included 114,682 Dutch adults, aged ≥18 years. Dairy consumption was quantified by a food frequency questionnaire. Abdominal overweight was defined as waist circumference (WC) ≥88 cm (women) or ≥102 cm (men) (n = 37,391), overweight as BMI ≥25-30 kg/m 2 (n = 44,772) and obesity as BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 (n = 15,339). Associations were quantified by logistic (abdominal overweight, no/yes), multinomial logistic (BMI-defined overweight and obesity) and linear regression analyses (continuous measures of WC and BMI), and they were adjusted for relevant covariates. Total dairy showed a positive association with abdominal overweight (OR Q1 ref vs. Q5: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14) and with BMI-defined overweight (OR Q5 1.13; 95% CI: 1.08-1.18) and obesity (OR Q5 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.16). Skimmed, semi-skimmed and non-fermented dairy also showed positive associations with overweight categories. Full-fat dairy showed an inverse association with overweight and obesity (OR Q5 for obesity: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.73-0.83). Moreover, inverse associations were observed for yoghurt and custard and positive associations for milk, buttermilk, flavoured yoghurt drinks, cheese and cheese snacks. Fermented dairy, curd cheese and Dutch cheese did not show a consistent association with overweight categories. Total, skimmed, semi-skimmed and non-fermented dairy; milk; buttermilk; flavoured yoghurt drinks; total cheese and cheese snacks showed a positive association with overweight categories, whereas full-fat dairy, custard and yoghurt showed an inverse association with overweight categories. Copyright © 2018 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human

Transformation (normalization) of slope gradient and surface curvatures, automated for statistical analyses from DEMs

Science.gov (United States)

Csillik, O.; Evans, I. S.; Drăguţ, L.

2015-03-01

Automated procedures are developed to alleviate long tails in frequency distributions of morphometric variables. They minimize the skewness of slope gradient frequency distributions, and modify the kurtosis of profile and plan curvature distributions toward that of the Gaussian (normal) model. Box-Cox (for slope) and arctangent (for curvature) transformations are tested on nine digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying origin and resolution, and different landscapes, and shown to be effective. Resulting histograms are illustrated and show considerable improvements over those for previously recommended slope transformations (sine, square root of sine, and logarithm of tangent). Unlike previous approaches, the proposed method evaluates the frequency distribution of slope gradient values in a given area and applies the most appropriate transform if required. Sensitivity of the arctangent transformation is tested, showing that Gaussian-kurtosis transformations are acceptable also in terms of histogram shape. Cube root transformations of curvatures produced bimodal histograms. The transforms are applicable to morphometric variables and many others with skewed or long-tailed distributions. By avoiding long tails and outliers, they permit parametric statistics such as correlation, regression and principal component analyses to be applied, with greater confidence that requirements for linearity, additivity and even scatter of residuals (constancy of error variance) are likely to be met. It is suggested that such transformations should be routinely applied in all parametric analyses of long-tailed variables. Our Box-Cox and curvature automated transformations are based on a Python script, implemented as an easy-to-use script tool in ArcGIS.

Variability Bugs:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Melo, Jean

. Although many researchers suggest that preprocessor-based variability amplifies maintenance problems, there is little to no hard evidence on how actually variability affects programs and programmers. Specifically, how does variability affect programmers during maintenance tasks (bug finding in particular......)? How much harder is it to debug a program as variability increases? How do developers debug programs with variability? In what ways does variability affect bugs? In this Ph.D. thesis, I set off to address such issues through different perspectives using empirical research (based on controlled...... experiments) in order to understand quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of variability on programmers at bug finding and on buggy programs. From the program (and bug) perspective, the results show that variability is ubiquitous. There appears to be no specific nature of variability bugs that could...

Emotional Variability and Clarity in Depression and Social Anxiety

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Renee J.; Boden, Matthew Tyler; Gotlib, Ian H.

2016-01-01

Recent research has underscored the importance of elucidating specific patterns of emotion that characterize mental disorders. We examined two emotion traits, emotional variability and emotional clarity, in relation to both categorical (diagnostic interview) and dimensional (self-report) measures of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD) in women diagnosed with MDD only (n=35), SAD only (n=31), MDD and SAD (n=26), or no psychiatric disorder (n=38). Results of the categorical analyses suggest that elevated emotional variability and diminished emotional clarity are transdiagnostic of MDD and SAD. More specifically, emotional variability was elevated for MDD and SAD diagnoses compared to no diagnosis, showing an additive effect for co-occurring MDD and SAD. Similarly diminished levels of emotional clarity characterized all three clinical groups compared to the healthy control group. Dimensional findings suggest that whereas emotional variability is associated more consistently with depression than with social anxiety, emotional clarity is associated more consistently with social anxiety than with depression. Results are interpreted using a threshold- and dose-response framework. PMID:26371579

The spatial variable glacier mass loss over the southeast Tibet Plateau and the climate cause analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, L.; Ding, X.; Song, C.; Sheng, Y.

2016-12-01

Temperate glaciers can be highly sensitive to global climate change due to relatively humid and warm local climate. Numerous temperate glaciers are distributed in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) and their changes are still poorly represented. Based on a latest glacier inventory and ICESat altimetry measurements, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of glacier change in the SETP (including the central and eastern Nyainqêntanglha ranges) and further analyze its relation with climate change by using station-based and gridded meteorological data. Our results show that SETP glaciers experienced drastic surface lowering at about -0.84±0.26 m a-1 on average over 2003-2008. Debris-covered ice thinned at an average rate of -1.13±0.32 m a-1, in comparison with -0.92±0.17 m a-1 over the debris-free ice areas. The thinning rate is the strongest in the southeastern sub-region (up to -1.24 m a-1 ) and moderate ( -0.45 m a-1 ) in the central and northwestern parts, which is in general agreement with the pattern of surface mass changes based on the GRACE gravimetry observation. Long-term climate data at weather stations show that, in comparison with the period of 1992-2002, mean temperature increased by 0.46 °C - 0.59 °C in the recent decade (2003-2013); while the change of summer precipitation exhibited remarkably spatial variability, following a southeast-northwest contrasting pattern (decreasing by over 10% in the southeast, to stable level in the central region, and increment up to 10% in the northwest). This spatially variable precipitation change is consistent with results from CN05 grid data and ERA re-analysis data, and agrees well with the spatial pattern of glacier surface elevation changes. The results suggest that overall negative glacier mass balances in SETP are governed by temperature rising, while the different precipitation change could contribute to inconsistent glacier thinning rates. The spatial pattern of precipitation decrease and mass loss might

Gait stability and variability measures show effects of impaired cognition and dual tasking in frail people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Vries Oscar J

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls in frail elderly are a common problem with a rising incidence. Gait and postural instability are major risk factors for falling, particularly in geriatric patients. As walking requires attention, cognitive impairments are likely to contribute to an increased fall risk. An objective quantification of gait and balance ability is required to identify persons with a high tendency to fall. Recent studies have shown that stride variability is increased in elderly and under dual task condition and might be more sensitive to detect fall risk than walking speed. In the present study we complemented stride related measures with measures that quantify trunk movement patterns as indicators of dynamic balance ability during walking. The aim of the study was to quantify the effect of impaired cognition and dual tasking on gait variability and stability in geriatric patients. Methods Thirteen elderly with dementia (mean age: 82.6 ± 4.3 years and thirteen without dementia (79.4 ± 5.55 recruited from a geriatric day clinic, walked at self-selected speed with and without performing a verbal dual task. The Mini Mental State Examination and the Seven Minute Screen were administered. Trunk accelerations were measured with an accelerometer. In addition to walking speed, mean, and variability of stride times, gait stability was quantified using stochastic dynamical measures, namely regularity (sample entropy, long range correlations and local stability exponents of trunk accelerations. Results Dual tasking significantly (p Conclusions The observed trunk adaptations were a consistent instability factor. These results support the concept that changes in cognitive functions contribute to changes in the variability and stability of the gait pattern. Walking under dual task conditions and quantifying gait using dynamical parameters can improve detecting walking disorders and might help to identify those elderly who are able to adapt walking

The variability of interconnected wind plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katzenstein, Warren; Fertig, Emily; Apt, Jay

2010-01-01

We present the first frequency-dependent analyses of the geographic smoothing of wind power's variability, analyzing the interconnected measured output of 20 wind plants in Texas. Reductions in variability occur at frequencies corresponding to times shorter than ∼24 h and are quantified by measuring the departure from a Kolmogorov spectrum. At a frequency of 2.8x10 -4 Hz (corresponding to 1 h), an 87% reduction of the variability of a single wind plant is obtained by interconnecting 4 wind plants. Interconnecting the remaining 16 wind plants produces only an additional 8% reduction. We use step change analyses and correlation coefficients to compare our results with previous studies, finding that wind power ramps up faster than it ramps down for each of the step change intervals analyzed and that correlation between the power output of wind plants 200 km away is half that of co-located wind plants. To examine variability at very low frequencies, we estimate yearly wind energy production in the Great Plains region of the United States from automated wind observations at airports covering 36 years. The estimated wind power has significant inter-annual variability and the severity of wind drought years is estimated to be about half that observed nationally for hydroelectric power.

Systematic Derivation of Static Analyses for Software Product Lines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Midtgaard, Jan; Brabrand, Claus; Wasowski, Andrzej

2014-01-01

A recent line of work lifts particular verification and analysis methods to Software Product Lines (SPL). In an effort to generalize such case-by-case approaches, we develop a systematic methodology for lifting program analyses to SPLs using abstract interpretation. Abstract interpretation...... for lifting analyses and Galois connections. We prove that for analyses developed using our method, the soundness of lifting follows by construction. Finally, we discuss approximating variability in an analysis and we derive variational data-flow equations for an example analysis, a constant propagation...

Abiotic variability among different aquatic systems of the central Amazon floodplain during drought and flood events.

Science.gov (United States)

Affonso, A G; Queiroz, H L; Novo, E M L M

2015-11-01

This paper examines water properties from lakes, (depression lakes, sensu Junk et al., 2012), channels (scroll lakes with high connectivity, sensu Junk et al., 2012) and paleo-channels (scroll lakes with low connectivity-sensu Junk et al., 2012, locally called ressacas) located in Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in Central Amazon floodplain, Amazonas, Brazil. We analysed surface temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, transparency, suspended inorganic and organic matter, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic and inorganic carbon in 2009 high water phase, 2009 and 2010 low water phases. Multivariate statistical analyses of 24 aquatic systems (6 ressacas, 12 lakes and 6 channels, 142 samples) were applied to the variables in order to: 1) quantify differences among aquatic system types; 2) assess how those differences are affected in the different phases of the hydrological year. First, we analysed the entire set of variables to test for differences among phases of the hydrological year and types of aquatic systems using a PERMANOVA two-way crossed design. The results showed that the all measured limnological variables are distinct regarding both factors: types of aquatic systems and hydrological phases. In general, the magnitude and amplitude of all variables were higher in the low water phase than in the high water phase, except for water transparency in all aquatic system's types. PERMANOVA showed that the differences between aquatic system's types and hydrological phases of all variables were highly significant for both main factors (type and phase) and for the type x phase interaction. Limnological patterns of Amazon floodplain aquatic systems are highly dynamic, dependent on the surrounding environment, flood pulse, main river input and system type. These patterns show how undisturbed systems respond to natural variability in such a diverse environment, and how distinct are those aquatic systems

Abiotic variability among different aquatic systems of the central Amazon floodplain during drought and flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. Affonso

Full Text Available Abstract This paper examines water properties from lakes, (depression lakes, sensu Junk et al., 2012, channels (scroll lakes with high connectivity, sensu Junk et al., 2012 and paleo-channels (scroll lakes with low connectivity-sensu Junk et al., 2012, locally called ressacas located in Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in Central Amazon floodplain, Amazonas, Brazil. We analysed surface temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, transparency, suspended inorganic and organic matter, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic and inorganic carbon in 2009 high water phase, 2009 and 2010 low water phases. Multivariate statistical analyses of 24 aquatic systems (6 ressacas, 12 lakes and 6 channels, 142 samples were applied to the variables in order to: 1 quantify differences among aquatic system types; 2 assess how those differences are affected in the different phases of the hydrological year. First, we analysed the entire set of variables to test for differences among phases of the hydrological year and types of aquatic systems using a PERMANOVA two-way crossed design. The results showed that the all measured limnological variables are distinct regarding both factors: types of aquatic systems and hydrological phases. In general, the magnitude and amplitude of all variables were higher in the low water phase than in the high water phase, except for water transparency in all aquatic system’s types. PERMANOVA showed that the differences between aquatic system’s types and hydrological phases of all variables were highly significant for both main factors (type and phase and for the type x phase interaction. Limnological patterns of Amazon floodplain aquatic systems are highly dynamic, dependent on the surrounding environment, flood pulse, main river input and system type. These patterns show how undisturbed systems respond to natural variability in such a diverse environment, and how distinct are

A survey of variable selection methods in two Chinese epidemiology journals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lynn Henry S

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Although much has been written on developing better procedures for variable selection, there is little research on how it is practiced in actual studies. This review surveys the variable selection methods reported in two high-ranking Chinese epidemiology journals. Methods Articles published in 2004, 2006, and 2008 in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology and the Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine were reviewed. Five categories of methods were identified whereby variables were selected using: A - bivariate analyses; B - multivariable analysis; e.g. stepwise or individual significance testing of model coefficients; C - first bivariate analyses, followed by multivariable analysis; D - bivariate analyses or multivariable analysis; and E - other criteria like prior knowledge or personal judgment. Results Among the 287 articles that reported using variable selection methods, 6%, 26%, 30%, 21%, and 17% were in categories A through E, respectively. One hundred sixty-three studies selected variables using bivariate analyses, 80% (130/163 via multiple significance testing at the 5% alpha-level. Of the 219 multivariable analyses, 97 (44% used stepwise procedures, 89 (41% tested individual regression coefficients, but 33 (15% did not mention how variables were selected. Sixty percent (58/97 of the stepwise routines also did not specify the algorithm and/or significance levels. Conclusions The variable selection methods reported in the two journals were limited in variety, and details were often missing. Many studies still relied on problematic techniques like stepwise procedures and/or multiple testing of bivariate associations at the 0.05 alpha-level. These deficiencies should be rectified to safeguard the scientific validity of articles published in Chinese epidemiology journals.

Variability of Actinobacteria, a minor component of rumen microflora.

Science.gov (United States)

Suľák, M; Sikorová, L; Jankuvová, J; Javorský, P; Pristaš, P

2012-07-01

Actinobacteria (Actinomycetes) are a significant and interesting group of gram-positive bacteria. They are regular, though infrequent, members of the microbial life in the rumen and represent up to 3 % of total rumen bacteria; there is considerable lack of information about ecology and biology of rumen actinobacteria. During the characterization of variability of rumen treponemas using non-cultivation approach, we also noted the variability of rumen actinobacteria. By using Treponema-specific primers a specific 16S rRNA gene library was prepared from cow and sheep rumen total DNA. About 10 % of recombinant clones contained actinobacteria-like sequences. Phylogenetic analyses of 11 clones obtained showed the high variability of actinobacteria in the ruminant digestive system. While some sequences are nearly identical to known sequences of actinobacteria, we detected completely new clusters of actinobacteria-like sequences, representing probably new, as yet undiscovered, group of rumen Actinobacteria. Further research will be necessary for understanding their nature and functions in the rumen.

Cataclysmic variables, Hubble-Sandage variables and eta Carinae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bath, G.T.

1980-01-01

The Hubble-Sandage variables are the most luminous stars in external galaxies. They were first investigated by Hubble and Sandage (1953) for use as distance indicators. Their main characteristics are high luminosity, blue colour indices, and irregular variability. Spectroscopically they show hydrogen and helium in emission with occasionally weaker FeII and [FeII], and no Balmer jump (Humphreys 1975, 1978). In this respect they closely resemble cataclysmic variables, particularly dwarf novae. In the quiescent state dwarf novae show broad H and HeI, together with a strong UV continuum. In contrast to the spectroscopic similarities, the luminosities could hardly differ more. Rather than being the brightest stars known, quiescent dwarf novae are as faint or fainter than the sun. It is suggested that the close correspondence between the spectral appearance of the two classes combined with the difference in luminosity is well accounted for by a model of Hubble-Sandage variables in which the same physical processes are occurring, but on a larger scale. (Auth.)

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

[Blood pressure variability: clinical interest or simple curiosity?].

Science.gov (United States)

Ciaroni, Stefano

2007-03-14

Blood pressure variability is a physiological phenomenon influenced by many internal and external factors. This variability could be also influenced by pathological conditions such as arterial hypertension. Two forms must be mainly distinguished: the blood pressure variability at long and short-term. The latter could only be studied by continuous recordings. In this article will be analysed the interest of measuring blood pressure variability, its cardiovascular prognosis and the therapeutic tools when it is increased.

Environmental variables, remote sensing and geographical information systems applied to the study of Rhodnius prolixus distribution in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guhl, Felipe

2010-01-01

A data base of the entomological survey performer during the Chagas Disease National Control Programme (CHDNCP) in 1997 - 2001 and temporal satellite images masp containing 57 environmental variables were used to build Rhodnius prolixus dispersion predictive maps in Colombia, based on temporal images, Fourier analyses and a discriminative multivaried statistical analyses of the variables studied. The maps show the dispersion of this species and its implication on the Chagas disease transmission in Colombia. A clear division in the predictive dispersion of R. prolixus in two geographical zones was found: one area in the southeast of the Eastern Cordillera associated with the environmental variables used in the present study and a second zone in the Andean Valleys, East of the Eastern Cordillera not much defined by the same variables. This would suggest that the Southwest Region. of Colombia presents a tendency to a wider dispersion of R. prolixus associated to other variables like human intervention. Sylvatic populations of R. prolixus were found recently in Attalea butyracea palm trees in this Region of the Eastern Planes demonstrating the prediction of the presence of this species.

Application of geostatistical methods to long-term safety analyses for radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roehlig, K.J.

2001-01-01

Long-term safety analyses are an important part of the design and optimisation process as well as of the licensing procedure for final repositories for radioactive waste in deep geological formations. For selected scenarios describing possible evolutions of the repository system in the post-closure phase, quantitative consequence analyses are performed. Due to the complexity of the phenomena of concern and the large timeframes under consideration, several types of uncertainties have to be taken into account. The modelling work for the far-field (geosphere) surrounding or overlaying the repository is based on model calculations concerning the groundwater movement and the resulting migration of radionuclides which possibly will be released from the repository. In contrast to engineered systems, the geosphere shows a strong spatial variability of facies, materials and material properties. The paper presented here describes the first steps towards a quantitative approach for an uncertainty assessment taking into account this variability. Due to the availability of a large amount of data and information of several types, the Gorleben site (Germany) has been used for a case study in order to demonstrate the method. (orig.)

Heart rate variability analysed by Poincaré plot in patients with metabolic syndrome

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kubíčková, A.; Kozumplík, J.; Nováková, Z.; Plachý, M.; Jurák, Pavel; Lipoldová, J.

2016-01-01

Roč. 49, č. 1 (2016), s. 23-28 ISSN 0022-0736 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP102/12/2034 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : heart rate variability * metabolic syndrome * Poincaré plot * tilt table test * controlled breathing Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering Impact factor: 1.514, year: 2016

Output variability caused by random seeds in a multi-agent transport simulation model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paulsen, Mads; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2018-01-01

Dynamic transport simulators are intended to support decision makers in transport-related issues, and as such it is valuable that the random variability of their outputs is as small as possible. In this study we analyse the output variability caused by random seeds of a multi-agent transport...... simulator (MATSim) when applied to a case study of Santiago de Chile. Results based on 100 different random seeds shows that the relative accuracies of estimated link loads tend to increase with link load, but that relative errors of up to 10 % do occur even for links with large volumes. Although...

Methodology development for statistical evaluation of reactor safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazumdar, M.; Marshall, J.A.; Chay, S.C.; Gay, R.

1976-07-01

In February 1975, Westinghouse Electric Corporation, under contract to Electric Power Research Institute, started a one-year program to develop methodology for statistical evaluation of nuclear-safety-related engineering analyses. The objectives of the program were to develop an understanding of the relative efficiencies of various computational methods which can be used to compute probability distributions of output variables due to input parameter uncertainties in analyses of design basis events for nuclear reactors and to develop methods for obtaining reasonably accurate estimates of these probability distributions at an economically feasible level. A series of tasks was set up to accomplish these objectives. Two of the tasks were to investigate the relative efficiencies and accuracies of various Monte Carlo and analytical techniques for obtaining such estimates for a simple thermal-hydraulic problem whose output variable of interest is given in a closed-form relationship of the input variables and to repeat the above study on a thermal-hydraulic problem in which the relationship between the predicted variable and the inputs is described by a short-running computer program. The purpose of the report presented is to document the results of the investigations completed under these tasks, giving the rationale for choices of techniques and problems, and to present interim conclusions

HOW NORMAL IS VARIABLE, OR HOW VARIABLE IS NORMAL

NARCIS (Netherlands)

TOUWEN, BCL

Variability is an important property of the central nervous system, and it shows characteristic changes during infancy and childhood. The large amount of variations in the performance of sensomotor functions in infancy is called indiscriminate or primary variability. During toddling age the child

Risk Aversion in Game Shows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

2008-01-01

We review the use of behavior from television game shows to infer risk attitudes. These shows provide evidence when contestants are making decisions over very large stakes, and in a replicated, structured way. Inferences are generally confounded by the subjective assessment of skill in some games......, and the dynamic nature of the task in most games. We consider the game shows Card Sharks, Jeopardy!, Lingo, and finally Deal Or No Deal. We provide a detailed case study of the analyses of Deal Or No Deal, since it is suitable for inference about risk attitudes and has attracted considerable attention....

Perfiles de organizaciones positivas. Análisis de características percibidas según variables individuales, organizacionales y de resultado (Positive organization profiles. Analysis of perceived characteristics according to individual, organizational, and outcome variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Laura Lupano Perugini

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This study analysed the profiles of organizations based on employee perceptions of their workplace. The sample consisted of 459 Argentinian employees (232 men; average age, 36.3 years (SD = 11.7. The participants worked for public companies (17.2%, n = 79 or private companies (82.6%, n = 379. Most of them lived in Buenos Aires and surrounding areas (96.5%, n = 443. A protocol was used for data collection, in which the participants were asked to report positive and negative characteristics associated with their organization. A content analysis of the answers given by the participants was performed, from which different categories of characteristics were derived (e.g., work climate, commitment, values. Several multiple correspondence analyses were conducted to generate profiles according to individual variables (i.e., gender, age, and position, organizational variables (i.e., size, typology, and type, and outcome variables (i.e., performance and job satisfaction. One of the most significant profiles showed associations between the perception of positive characteristics, such as values and outcomes, and high levels of satisfaction and individual/organizational performance.

Variations of Histone Modification Patterns: Contributions of Inter-plant Variability and Technical Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylva Brabencová

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Inter-individual variability of conspecific plants is governed by differences in their genetically determined growth and development traits, environmental conditions, and adaptive responses under epigenetic control involving histone post-translational modifications. The apparent variability in histone modifications among plants might be increased by technical variation introduced in sample processing during epigenetic analyses. Thus, to detect true variations in epigenetic histone patterns associated with given factors, the basal variability among samples that is not associated with them must be estimated. To improve knowledge of relative contribution of biological and technical variation, mass spectrometry was used to examine histone modification patterns (acetylation and methylation among Arabidopsis thaliana plants of ecotypes Columbia 0 (Col-0 and Wassilewskija (Ws homogenized by two techniques (grinding in a cryomill or with a mortar and pestle. We found little difference in histone modification profiles between the ecotypes. However, in comparison of the biological and technical components of variability, we found consistently higher inter-individual variability in histone mark levels among Ws plants than among Col-0 plants (grown from seeds collected either from single plants or sets of plants. Thus, more replicates of Ws would be needed for rigorous analysis of epigenetic marks. Regarding technical variability, the cryomill introduced detectably more heterogeneity in the data than the mortar and pestle treatment, but mass spectrometric analyses had minor apparent effects. Our study shows that it is essential to consider inter-sample variance and estimate suitable numbers of biological replicates for statistical analysis for each studied organism when investigating changes in epigenetic histone profiles.

Variations of Histone Modification Patterns: Contributions of Inter-plant Variability and Technical Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brabencová, Sylva; Ihnatová, Ivana; Potěšil, David; Fojtová, Miloslava; Fajkus, Jiří; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Lochmanová, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Inter-individual variability of conspecific plants is governed by differences in their genetically determined growth and development traits, environmental conditions, and adaptive responses under epigenetic control involving histone post-translational modifications. The apparent variability in histone modifications among plants might be increased by technical variation introduced in sample processing during epigenetic analyses. Thus, to detect true variations in epigenetic histone patterns associated with given factors, the basal variability among samples that is not associated with them must be estimated. To improve knowledge of relative contribution of biological and technical variation, mass spectrometry was used to examine histone modification patterns (acetylation and methylation) among Arabidopsis thaliana plants of ecotypes Columbia 0 (Col-0) and Wassilewskija (Ws) homogenized by two techniques (grinding in a cryomill or with a mortar and pestle). We found little difference in histone modification profiles between the ecotypes. However, in comparison of the biological and technical components of variability, we found consistently higher inter-individual variability in histone mark levels among Ws plants than among Col-0 plants (grown from seeds collected either from single plants or sets of plants). Thus, more replicates of Ws would be needed for rigorous analysis of epigenetic marks. Regarding technical variability, the cryomill introduced detectably more heterogeneity in the data than the mortar and pestle treatment, but mass spectrometric analyses had minor apparent effects. Our study shows that it is essential to consider inter-sample variance and estimate suitable numbers of biological replicates for statistical analysis for each studied organism when investigating changes in epigenetic histone profiles.

The effect of playing tactics and situational variables on achieving score-box possessions in a professional soccer team.

Science.gov (United States)

Lago-Ballesteros, Joaquin; Lago-Peñas, Carlos; Rey, Ezequiel

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the influence of playing tactics, opponent interaction and situational variables on achieving score-box possessions in professional soccer. The sample was constituted by 908 possessions obtained by a team from the Spanish soccer league in 12 matches played during the 2009-2010 season. Multidimensional qualitative data obtained from 12 ordered categorical variables were used. Sampled matches were registered by the AMISCO PRO system. Data were analysed using chi-square analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. Of 908 possessions, 303 (33.4%) produced score-box possessions, 477 (52.5%) achieved progression and 128 (14.1%) failed to reach any sort of progression. Multiple logistic regression showed that, for the main variable "team possession type", direct attacks and counterattacks were three times more effective than elaborate attacks for producing a score-box possession (P tactics on producing score-box possessions.

A method for calorimetric analysis in variable conditions heating; Methode d'analyse calorimetrique en regime variable

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berthier, G [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1965-07-01

By the analysis of the thermal transition conditions given by the quenching of a sample in a furnace maintained at a high temperature, it is possible to study the thermal diffusivity of some materials and those of solid state structure transformation on a qualitative as well as a quantitative standpoint. For instance the transformation energy of {alpha}-quartz into {beta}-quartz and the Wigner energy stored within neutron-irradiated beryllium oxide have been measured. (author) [French] L'analyse du regime thermique transitoire, obtenu par la trempe d'un echantillon dans l'enceinte d'un four maintenu a tres haute temperature, peut permettre l'etude de la diffusivite thermique de certains materiaux et celle des transformations structurales en phase solide, tant du point de vue qualitatif que du point de vue quantitatif (mesure de l'energie de transformation du quartz {alpha} en quartz {beta} et determination de l'energie Wigner emmagasinee par l'oxyde de beryllium irradie aux neutrons). (auteur)

Spatial and temporal variability in urban fine particulate matter concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levy, Jonathan I.; Hanna, Steven R.

2011-01-01

Identification of hot spots for urban fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations is complicated by the significant contributions from regional atmospheric transport and the dependence of spatial and temporal variability on averaging time. We focus on PM 2.5 patterns in New York City, which includes significant local sources, street canyons, and upwind contributions to concentrations. A literature synthesis demonstrates that long-term (e.g., one-year) average PM 2.5 concentrations at a small number of widely-distributed monitoring sites would not show substantial variability, whereas short-term (e.g., 1-h) average measurements with high spatial density would show significant variability. Statistical analyses of ambient monitoring data as a function of wind speed and direction reinforce the significance of regional transport but show evidence of local contributions. We conclude that current monitor siting may not adequately capture PM 2.5 variability in an urban area, especially in a mega-city, reinforcing the necessity of dispersion modeling and methods for analyzing high-resolution monitoring observations. - Highlights: →Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) hot spots are hard to identify in urban areas. → Literature conclusions about PM 2.5 hot spots depend on study design and methods. → Hot spots are more likely for short-term concentrations at high spatial density. → Statistical methods illustrate local source impacts beyond regional transport. → Dispersion models and high-resolution monitors are both needed to find hot spots. - Fine particulate matter can vary spatially within large urban areas, in spite of the significant contribution from regional atmospheric transport.

Outer membrane targeting of Pseudomonas aeruginosa proteins shows variable dependence on the components of Bam and Lol machineries.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoang, Hanh H; Nickerson, Nicholas N; Lee, Vincent T; Kazimirova, Anastasia; Chami, Mohamed; Pugsley, Anthony P; Lory, Stephen

2011-01-01

In Gram-negative bacteria, the Lol and Bam machineries direct the targeting of lipidated and nonlipidated proteins, respectively, to the outer membrane (OM). Using Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains with depleted levels of specific Bam and Lol proteins, we demonstrated a variable dependence of different OM proteins on these targeting pathways. Reduction in the level of BamA significantly affected the ability of the β-barrel membrane protein OprF to localize to the OM, while the targeting of three secretins that are functionally related OM proteins was less affected (PilQ and PscC) or not at all affected (XcpQ). Depletion of LolB affected all lipoproteins examined and had a variable effect on the nonlipidated proteins. While the levels of OprF, PilQ, and PscC were significantly reduced by LolB depletion, XcpQ was unaffected and was correctly localized to the OM. These results suggest that certain β-barrel proteins such as OprF primarily utilize the complete Bam machinery. The Lol machinery participates in the OM targeting of secretins to variable degrees, likely through its involvement in the assembly of lipidated Bam components. XcpQ, but not PilQ or PscC, was shown to assemble spontaneously into liposomes as multimers. This work raises the possibility that there is a gradient of utilization of Bam and Lol insertion and targeting machineries. Structural features of individual proteins, including their β-barrel content, may determine the propensity of these proteins for folding (or misfolding) during periplasmic transit and OM insertion, thereby influencing the extent of utilization of the Bam targeting machinery, respectively. Targeting of lipidated and nonlipidated proteins to the outer membrane (OM) compartment in Gram-negative bacteria involves the transfer across the periplasm utilizing the Lol and Bam machineries, respectively. We show that depletion of Bam and Lol components in Pseudomonas aeruginosa does not lead to a general OM protein translocation defect

Associations between period 3 gene polymorphisms and sleep- /chronotype-related variables in patients with late-life insomnia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mansour, Hader A; Wood, Joel; Chowdari, Kodavali V; Tumuluru, Divya; Bamne, Mikhil; Monk, Timothy H; Hall, Martica H; Buysse, Daniel J; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L

2017-01-01

A variable number tandem repeat polymorphism (VNTR) in the period 3 (PER3) gene has been associated with heritable sleep and circadian variables, including self-rated chronotypes, polysomnographic (PSG) variables, insomnia and circadian sleep-wake disorders. This report describes novel molecular and clinical analyses of PER3 VNTR polymorphisms to better define their functional consequences. As the PER3 VNTR is located in the exonic (protein coding) region of PER3, we initially investigated whether both alleles (variants) are transcribed into messenger RNA in human fibroblasts. The VNTR showed bi-allelic gene expression. We next investigated genetic associations in relation to clinical variables in 274 older adult Caucasian individuals. Independent variables included genotypes for the PER3 VNTR as well as a representative set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that tag common variants at the PER3 locus (linkage disequilibrium (LD) between genetic variants sleep time and sleep latency, self-rated chronotype, estimated with the Composite Scale (CS), and lifestyle regularity, estimated using the social rhythm metric (SRM). Initially, genetic polymorphisms were individually analyzed in relation to each outcome variable using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Nominally significant associations were further tested using regression analyses that incorporated individual ANOVA-associated DNA variants as potential predictors and each of the selected sleep/circadian variables as outcomes. The covariates included age, gender, body mass index and an index of medical co-morbidity. Significant genetic associations with the VNTR were not detected with the sleep or circadian variables. Nominally significant associations were detected between SNP rs1012477 and CS scores (p = 0.003) and between rs10462021 and SRM (p = 0.047); rs11579477 and average delta power (p = 0.043) (analyses uncorrected for multiple comparisons). In conclusion, alleles of the VNTR are expressed at the

Seasonal variability of the M2 tide in the seas adjacent to Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Sok Kuh; Chung, Jong-yul; Lee, Sang-Ryong; Yum, Ki-Dat

1995-08-01

Seasonal variability of the M2 tidal harmonic constants is revealed through analyses of monthly tidal data at 12 representative tidal stations in the seas adjacent to the Korean peninsula. The variability remain systematic over the 9 years (1965-1973) of data analysis with a range comparable to that of the 18.6 year nodal modulation. Spatial inhomogeneity of the seasonal variability in the observed harmonic constants is found to exist. The largest seasonal variability in M2 appears in the stations located along the Korea Strait. This variability is not explained by the equilibrium theory of tides, and such a variability or irregularities in the harmonic constants are considered as either a noise as done by Cartwright and Amin (1986), Deutsch Hydrography Zeitschrift, 39, 235-253, or a manifestation of frictional interaction as done by Godin and Gutierrez (1986) Continental Shelf Research, 5, 379-402 for the Bay of Fundy. Considering the opposite relation between monthly mean sea level differences in Izuhara-Pusan section and tidal characteristics in the Korea Strait, it is hypothesized that the interaction between the predominant tidal currents and oceanic currents varying with the seasons might be the main cause of the observed temporal variability in the M2 tide. The nonlinear effect of the Kuroshio is investigated along the shelf break region through scale analyses, which show that the presence of a mean current increases the non-linear terms in the momentum balance by about one order of magnitude. The seasonally different damping effect of the Tsushima Current to the M2 tide is also discussed to explain the process of dominant seasonal variability along the Korea Strait based on the actual current data, but further thorough investigation, considering the advection effect of the mean current, is required to investigate the associated dynamics more completely.

First-born siblings show better second language skills than later born siblings

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Karin; Troesch, Larissa M.; Grob, Alexander

2015-01-01

We examined the extent to which three sibling structure variables number of siblings, birth order, and presence of an older sibling at school age are linked to the second language skills of bilingual children. The research questions were tested using an ethnically heterogeneous sample of 1209 bilingual children with German as a second language. Controlling for children’s age, sex, nationality, number of children’s books at home, family language and parental German language skills, hierarchical regression analyses showed an inverse relationship between the number of siblings and second language skills: the more siblings a child had, the lower was his/her second language proficiency. This relationship was mediated by attendance in early education institutions. Moreover, first-born siblings showed better second language skills than later born siblings. The current study revealed that the resource dilution model, i.e., the decrease in resources for every additional sibling, holds for second language acquisition. Moreover, the results indicate that bilingual children from families with several children benefit from access to early education institutions. PMID:26089806

First-born siblings show better second language skills than later born siblings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karin eKeller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We examined the extent to which three sibling structure variables number of siblings, birth order and presence of an older sibling at school age are linked to the second language skills of bilingual children. The research questions were tested using an ethnically heterogeneous sample of 1209 bilingual children with German as a second language. Controlling for children’s age, sex, nationality, number of children’s books at home, family language and parental German language skills, hierarchical regression analyses showed an inverse relationship between the number of siblings and second language skills: The more siblings a child had, the lower was his/her second language proficiency. This relationship was mediated by attendance in early education institutions. Moreover, first-born siblings showed better second language skills than later born siblings.The current study revealed that the resource dilution model, i.e., the decrease in resources for every additional sibling, holds for second language acquisition. Moreover, the results indicate that bilingual children from families with several children benefit from access to early education institutions.

Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2010-07-05

We study generalized linear latent variable models without requiring a distributional assumption of the latent variables. Using a geometric approach, we derive consistent semiparametric estimators. We demonstrate that these models have a property which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n consistency and asymptotic normality. We explain the computational implementation of our method and illustrate the numerical performance of the estimators in finite sample situations via extensive simulation studies. The advantage of our estimators over the existing likelihood approach is also shown via numerical comparison. We employ the method to analyse a real data example from economics. © 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

Thermal infrared imagery as a tool for analysing the variability of surface saturated areas at various temporal and spatial scales

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Barbara; Antonelli, Marta; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian

2017-04-01

Surface saturated areas are important for the on- and offset of hydrological connectivity within the hillslope-riparian-stream continuum. This is reflected in concepts such as variable contributing areas or critical source areas. However, we still lack a standardized method for areal mapping of surface saturation and for observing its spatiotemporal variability. Proof-of-concept studies in recent years have shown the potential of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery to record surface saturation dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales. Thermal infrared imagery is thus a promising alternative to conventional approaches, such as the squishy boot method or the mapping of vegetation. In this study we use TIR images to investigate the variability of surface saturated areas at different temporal and spatial scales in the forested Weierbach catchment (0.45 km2) in western Luxembourg. We took TIR images of the riparian zone with a hand-held FLIR infrared camera at fortnightly intervals over 18 months at nine different locations distributed over the catchment. Not all of the acquired images were suitable for a derivation of the surface saturated areas, as various factors influence the usability of the TIR images (e.g. temperature contrasts, shadows, fog). Nonetheless, we obtained a large number of usable images that provided a good insight into the dynamic behaviour of surface saturated areas at different scales. The images revealed how diverse the evolution of surface saturated areas can be throughout the hydrologic year. For some locations with similar morphology or topography we identified diverging saturation dynamics, while other locations with different morphology / topography showed more similar behaviour. Moreover, we were able to assess the variability of the dynamics of expansion / contraction of saturated areas within the single locations, which can help to better understand the mechanisms behind surface saturation development.

Reproducibility and reliability of repeated semen analyses in male partners of subfertile couples

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leushuis, Esther; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Repping, Sjoerd; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Blankenstein, Marinus A.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; van der Veen, Fulco; Hompes, Peter G. A.

2010-01-01

Objective: To determine the precise degree of variability that is represented by the reproducibility and reliability of semen analysis. The general assumption is that semen analyses need to be repeated because of a high degree of within-individual variability. However, the precise degree of

Microsatellite marker analysis of the genetic variability in Hanoverian Hounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Lüpke, L; Distl, O

2005-04-01

Genetic variability of the dog breed Hanoverian Hound was analysed using a set of 16 microsatellites. The sample of 92 dogs was representative for the total current population [n=334, inbreeding coefficient 9.2%, relationship coefficient 11.2%] with respect to the level and distribution of the inbreeding and relationship coefficients. All microsatellites used were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The average number of alleles was 6.4. The average observed heterozygosity (H(O)) was slightly higher than the expected heterozygosity (H(E)). Dinucleotide microsatellites exhibited lower polymorphism information content (PIC) than tetranucleotide microsatellites (0.52 versus 0.66). The average PIC was 0.61. The individual inbreeding coefficient was negatively related to the average H(O) of all microsatellites, whereas the proportion of genes from introducing of Hanoverian Hounds from abroad showed no relationships to H(O). We found that the genetic variability in the Hanoverian Hounds analysed here was unexpectedly higher than that previously published for dog breeds of similar population size. Even in dog breeds of larger population size heterogyzosity was seldom higher than that observed here. The rather high genetic variability as quantified by polymorphic microsatellites in Hanoverian Hounds may be due to a large genetic variation in the founder animals of this breed and to the fact that this genetic diversity could be maintained despite genetic bottlenecks experienced by this breed in the 1920s and 1950s and despite the presence of high inbreeding and relationship coefficients for more than 50 years.

Temporally variable macroinvertebrate-stone relationships in streams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, D.

2005-01-01

of fauna parameter and stone variable from different sampling dates (n=9-11) were rarely correlated to any of the measures of stream stability, this study has demonstrated high temporal variability in fauna-stone relationships (CV's of regression slopes). Consequently, temporally un-replicated studies......Stones were used to sample macroinvertebrates and characterise microhabitats at monthly or bimonthly intervals in six Ecuadorian streams covering a gradient in four different stability measures and other stream characteristics. The physical variables current velocity, water depth, horizontal...... of families vs. individuals) were related to the physical characteristics of individual stone habitats. My second objective was to quantify temporal variability in fauna-stone relationships and to analyse if such variability was related to overall stability of stream reaches. Partial Least Squares (PLS...

CFD analyses of coolant channel flowfields

Science.gov (United States)

Yagley, Jennifer A.; Feng, Jinzhang; Merkle, Charles L.

1993-01-01

The flowfield characteristics in rocket engine coolant channels are analyzed by means of a numerical model. The channels are characterized by large length to diameter ratios, high Reynolds numbers, and asymmetrical heating. At representative flow conditions, the channel length is approximately twice the hydraulic entrance length so that fully developed conditions would be reached for a constant property fluid. For the supercritical hydrogen that is used as the coolant, the strong property variations create significant secondary flows in the cross-plane which have a major influence on the flow and the resulting heat transfer. Comparison of constant and variable property solutions show substantial differences. In addition, the property variations prevent fully developed flow. The density variation accelerates the fluid in the channels increasing the pressure drop without an accompanying increase in heat flux. Analyses of the inlet configuration suggest that side entry from a manifold can affect the development of the velocity profile because of vortices generated as the flow enters the channel. Current work is focused on studying the effects of channel bifurcation on the flow field and the heat transfer characteristics.

Benford's law and continuous dependent random variables

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Thealexa; Burt, David; Corcoran, Taylor C.; Greaves-Tunnell, Alec; Iafrate, Joseph R.; Jing, Joy; Miller, Steven J.; Porfilio, Jaclyn D.; Ronan, Ryan; Samranvedhya, Jirapat; Strauch, Frederick W.; Talbut, Blaine

2018-01-01

Many mathematical, man-made and natural systems exhibit a leading-digit bias, where a first digit (base 10) of 1 occurs not 11% of the time, as one would expect if all digits were equally likely, but rather 30%. This phenomenon is known as Benford's Law. Analyzing which datasets adhere to Benford's Law and how quickly Benford behavior sets in are the two most important problems in the field. Most previous work studied systems of independent random variables, and relied on the independence in their analyses. Inspired by natural processes such as particle decay, we study the dependent random variables that emerge from models of decomposition of conserved quantities. We prove that in many instances the distribution of lengths of the resulting pieces converges to Benford behavior as the number of divisions grow, and give several conjectures for other fragmentation processes. The main difficulty is that the resulting random variables are dependent. We handle this by using tools from Fourier analysis and irrationality exponents to obtain quantified convergence rates as well as introducing and developing techniques to measure and control the dependencies. The construction of these tools is one of the major motivations of this work, as our approach can be applied to many other dependent systems. As an example, we show that the n ! entries in the determinant expansions of n × n matrices with entries independently drawn from nice random variables converges to Benford's Law.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

2018-04-01

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

2017-12-01

The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south

The Effect of Visual Variability on the Learning of Academic Concepts.

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Bourgoyne, Ashley; Alt, Mary

2017-06-10

The purpose of this study was to identify effects of variability of visual input on development of conceptual representations of academic concepts for college-age students with normal language (NL) and those with language-learning disabilities (LLD). Students with NL (n = 11) and LLD (n = 11) participated in a computer-based training for introductory biology course concepts. Participants were trained on half the concepts under a low-variability condition and half under a high-variability condition. Participants completed a posttest in which they were asked to identify and rate the accuracy of novel and trained visual representations of the concepts. We performed separate repeated measures analyses of variance to examine the accuracy of identification and ratings. Participants were equally accurate on trained and novel items in the high-variability condition, but were less accurate on novel items only in the low-variability condition. The LLD group showed the same pattern as the NL group; they were just less accurate. Results indicated that high-variability visual input may facilitate the acquisition of academic concepts in college students with NL and LLD. High-variability visual input may be especially beneficial for generalization to novel representations of concepts. Implicit learning methods may be harnessed by college courses to provide students with basic conceptual knowledge when they are entering courses or beginning new units.

Heart rate variability in healthy population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alamgir, M.; Hussain, M.M.

2010-01-01

Background: Heart rate variability has been considered as an indicator of autonomic status. Little work has been done on heart rate variability in normal healthy volunteers. We aimed at evolving the reference values of heart rate variability in our healthy population. Methods: Twenty-four hour holter monitoring of 37 healthy individuals was done using Holter ECG recorder 'Life card CF' from 'Reynolds Medical'. Heart rate variability in both time and frequency domains was analysed with 'Reynolds Medical Pathfinder Digital/700'. Results: The heart rate variability in normal healthy volunteers of our population was found in time domain using standard deviation of R-R intervals (SDNN), standard deviation of average NN intervals (SDANN), and Square root of the mean squared differences of successive NN intervals (RMSSD). Variation in heart rate variability indices was observed between local and foreign volunteers and RMSSD was found significantly increased (p<0.05) in local population. Conclusions: The values of heart rate variability (RMSSD) in healthy Pakistani volunteers were found increased compared to the foreign data reflecting parasympathetic dominance in our population. (author)

Variability of the Wind Turbine Power Curve

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Mahesh M. Bandi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Wind turbine power curves are calibrated by turbine manufacturers under requirements stipulated by the International Electrotechnical Commission to provide a functional mapping between the mean wind speed v ¯ and the mean turbine power output P ¯ . Wind plant operators employ these power curves to estimate or forecast wind power generation under given wind conditions. However, it is general knowledge that wide variability exists in these mean calibration values. We first analyse how the standard deviation in wind speed σ v affects the mean P ¯ and the standard deviation σ P of wind power. We find that the magnitude of wind power fluctuations scales as the square of the mean wind speed. Using data from three planetary locations, we find that the wind speed standard deviation σ v systematically varies with mean wind speed v ¯ , and in some instances, follows a scaling of the form σ v = C × v ¯ α ; C being a constant and α a fractional power. We show that, when applicable, this scaling form provides a minimal parameter description of the power curve in terms of v ¯ alone. Wind data from different locations establishes that (in instances when this scaling exists the exponent α varies with location, owing to the influence of local environmental conditions on wind speed variability. Since manufacturer-calibrated power curves cannot account for variability influenced by local conditions, this variability translates to forecast uncertainty in power generation. We close with a proposal for operators to perform post-installation recalibration of their turbine power curves to account for the influence of local environmental factors on wind speed variability in order to reduce the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. Understanding the relationship between wind’s speed and its variability is likely to lead to lower costs for the integration of wind power into the electric grid.

Statistical Analyses of Second Indoor Bio-Release Field Evaluation Study at Idaho National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amidan, Brett G.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Matzke, Brett D.

2009-12-17

In September 2008 a large-scale testing operation (referred to as the INL-2 test) was performed within a two-story building (PBF-632) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The report “Operational Observations on the INL-2 Experiment” defines the seven objectives for this test and discusses the results and conclusions. This is further discussed in the introduction of this report. The INL-2 test consisted of five tests (events) in which a floor (level) of the building was contaminated with the harmless biological warfare agent simulant Bg and samples were taken in most, if not all, of the rooms on the contaminated floor. After the sampling, the building was decontaminated, and the next test performed. Judgmental samples and probabilistic samples were determined and taken during each test. Vacuum, wipe, and swab samples were taken within each room. The purpose of this report is to study an additional four topics that were not within the scope of the original report. These topics are: 1) assess the quantitative assumptions about the data being normally or log-normally distributed; 2) evaluate differences and quantify the sample to sample variability within a room and across the rooms; 3) perform geostatistical types of analyses to study spatial correlations; and 4) quantify the differences observed between surface types and sampling methods for each scenario and study the consistency across the scenarios. The following four paragraphs summarize the results of each of the four additional analyses. All samples after decontamination came back negative. Because of this, it was not appropriate to determine if these clearance samples were normally distributed. As Table 1 shows, the characterization data consists of values between and inclusive of 0 and 100 CFU/cm2 (100 was the value assigned when the number is too numerous to count). The 100 values are generally much bigger than the rest of the data, causing the data to be right skewed. There are also a significant

Spatiotemporal variability in carbon exchange fluxes across the Sahel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tagesson, Håkan Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Cappelaere, Bernard

2016-01-01

for semi-arid ecosystems. We have synthesized data on the land-atmosphere exchange of CO2 measured with the eddy covariance technique from the six existing sites across the Sahel, one of the largest semi-arid regions in the world. The overall aim of the study is to analyse and quantify the spatiotemporal...... variability in these fluxes and to analyse to which degree spatiotemporal variation can be explained by hydrological, climatic, edaphic and vegetation variables. All ecosystems were C sinks (average ± total error -162 ± 48 g C m-2 y-1), but were smaller when strongly impacted by anthropogenic influences...

Relationship of goat milk flow emission variables with milking routine, milking parameters, milking machine characteristics and goat physiology.

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Romero, G; Panzalis, R; Ruegg, P

2017-11-01

The aim of this paper was to study the relationship between milk flow emission variables recorded during milking of dairy goats with variables related to milking routine, goat physiology, milking parameters and milking machine characteristics, to determine the variables affecting milking performance and help the goat industry pinpoint farm and milking practices that improve milking performance. In total, 19 farms were visited once during the evening milking. Milking parameters (vacuum level (VL), pulsation ratio and pulsation rate, vacuum drop), milk emission flow variables (milking time, milk yield, maximum milk flow (MMF), average milk flow (AVMF), time until 500 g/min milk flow is established (TS500)), doe characteristics of 8 to 10 goats/farm (breed, days in milk and parity), milking practices (overmilking, overstripping, pre-lag time) and milking machine characteristics (line height, presence of claw) were recorded on every farm. The relationships between recorded variables and farm were analysed by a one-way ANOVA analysis. The relationships of milk yield, MMF, milking time and TS500 with goat physiology, milking routine, milking parameters and milking machine design were analysed using a linear mixed model, considering the farm as the random effect. Farm was significant (Pfarms, being similar to those recommended in scientific studies. Few milking parameters and milking machine characteristics affected the tested variables: average vacuum level only showed tendency on MMF, and milk pipeline height on TS500. Milk yield (MY) was mainly affected by parity, as the interaction of days in milk with parity was also significant. Milking time was mainly affected by milk yield and breed. Also significant were parity, the interaction of days in milk with parity and overstripping, whereas overmilking showed a slight tendency. We concluded that most of the studied variables were mainly related to goat physiology characteristics, as the effects of milking parameters and

Preliminary Analyses Showed Short-Term Mental Health Improvements after a Single-Day Manager Training.

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Boysen, Elena; Schiller, Birgitta; Mörtl, Kathrin; Gündel, Harald; Hölzer, Michael

2018-01-10

Psychosocial working conditions attract more and more attention when it comes to mental health in the workplace. Trying to support managers to deal with their own as well as their employees' psychological risk factors, we conducted a specific manager training. Within this investigation, we wanted to learn about the training's effects and acceptance. A single-day manager training was provided in a large industrial company in Germany. The participants were asked to fill out questionnaires regarding their own physical and mental health condition as well as their working situation. Questionnaires were distributed at baseline, 3-month, and 12-month follow-up. At this point of time the investigation is still ongoing. The current article focuses on short-term preliminary effects. Analyses only included participants that already completed baseline and three months follow-up. Preliminary results from three-month follow-up survey ( n = 33, nmale = 30, Mage = 47.5) indicated positive changes in the manager's mental health condition measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression (PHQ-9: Mt1 = 3.82, Mt2 = 3.15). Training managers about common mental disorders and risk factors at the workplace within a single-day workshop seems to promote positive effects on their own mental health. Especially working with the managers on their own early stress symptoms might have been an important element.

Validation of endogenous normalizing genes for expression analyses in adult human testis and germ cell neoplasms.

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Svingen, T; Jørgensen, A; Rajpert-De Meyts, E

2014-08-01

The measurement of gene expression levels in cells and tissues typically depends on a suitable point of reference for inferring biological relevance. For quantitative (or real-time) RT-PCR assays, the method of choice is often to normalize gene expression data to an endogenous gene that is stably expressed across the samples analysed: a so-called normalizing or housekeeping gene. Although this is a valid strategy, the identification of stable normalizing genes has proved challenging and a gene showing stable expression across all cells or tissues is unlikely to exist. Therefore, it is necessary to define suitable normalizing genes for specific cells and tissues. Here, we report on the performance of a panel of nine commonly employed normalizing genes in adult human testis and testicular pathologies. Our analyses revealed significant variability in transcript abundance for commonly used normalizers, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate normalizing genes as comparative measurements can yield variable results when different normalizing genes are employed. Based on our results, we recommend using RPS20, RPS29 or SRSF4 when analysing relative gene expression levels in human testis and associated testicular pathologies. OCT4 and SALL4 can be used with caution as second-tier normalizers when determining changes in gene expression in germ cells and germ cell tumour components, but the relative transcript abundance appears variable between different germ cell tumour types. We further recommend that such studies should be accompanied by additional assessment of histology and cellularity of each sample. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial variability of atrazine dissipation in an allophanic soil.

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Müller, Karin; Smith, Roger E; James, Trevor K; Holland, Patrick T; Rahman, Anis

2003-08-01

The small-scale variability (0.5 m) of atrazine (6-chloro-N2-ethyl-N4-isopropyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine) concentrations and soil water contents in a volcanic silt loam soil (Haplic Andosol, FAO system) was studied in an area of 0.1 ha. Descriptive and spatial statistics were used to analyse the data. On average we recovered 102% of the applied atrazine 2 h after the herbicide application (CV = 35%). An increase in the CV of the concentrations with depth could be ascribed to a combination of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Both variables, atrazine concentrations and soil water content, showed a high horizontal variability. The semivariograms of the atrazine concentrations exhibited the pure nugget effect, no pattern could be determined along the 15.5-m long transects on any of the seven sampling days over a 55-day period. Soil water content had a weak spatial autocorrelation with a range of 6-10 m. The dissipation of atrazine analysed using a high vertical sampling resolution of 0.02 m to 0.2 m showed that 70% of the applied atrazine persisted in the upper 0.02-m layer of the soil for 12 days. After 55 days and 410 mm of rainfall the centre of the pesticide mass was still at a soil depth of 0.021 m. The special characteristics of the soil (high organic carbon content, allophanic clay) had a strong influence on atrazine sorption and mobility. The mass recovery after 55 days was low. The laboratory degradation rate for atrazine, determined in a complementary incubation study and corrected for the actual field temperature using the Arrhenius equation, only accounted for about 35% of the losses that occurred in the field. Results suggest field degradation rates to be more changeable in time and much faster than under controlled conditions. Preferential flow is discussed as a component of the field transport process.

VALUE OF HEART RATE VARIABILITY ANALYSIS IN DIAGNOSTICS OF THE EMOTIONAL STATE

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І. Chaykovskyi

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The is presented the development of method for evaluation of emotional state of man, what suitable for use at the workplace based on analysis of heart rate (HR variability. 28 healthy volunteers were examined. 3 audiovisual clips were consistently presented on the display of the personal computer for each of them. One clip contained information originating the positive emotions, the second one – negative emotions, the third one – neutral. All possible pairs of the emotional states were analysed with help of one- and multi-dimensional linear discriminant analysis based on HR variability. Showing the emotional video-clips (of both signs causes reliable slowing of HR frequency and also some decreasing of HR variability. In addition, negative emotions cause regularizing and simplification of structural organization of heart rhythm. Accuracy of discrimination for pair “emotional – neutral” video clips was 98 %, for pair “rest – neutral” was 74 %, for pair “positive – negative” was 91 %. Analysis of HR variability enables to determine the emotional state of observed person at the workplace with high reliability.

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

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Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

r2VIM: A new variable selection method for random forests in genome-wide association studies.

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Szymczak, Silke; Holzinger, Emily; Dasgupta, Abhijit; Malley, James D; Molloy, Anne M; Mills, James L; Brody, Lawrence C; Stambolian, Dwight; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E

2016-01-01

Machine learning methods and in particular random forests (RFs) are a promising alternative to standard single SNP analyses in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RFs provide variable importance measures (VIMs) to rank SNPs according to their predictive power. However, in contrast to the established genome-wide significance threshold, no clear criteria exist to determine how many SNPs should be selected for downstream analyses. We propose a new variable selection approach, recurrent relative variable importance measure (r2VIM). Importance values are calculated relative to an observed minimal importance score for several runs of RF and only SNPs with large relative VIMs in all of the runs are selected as important. Evaluations on simulated GWAS data show that the new method controls the number of false-positives under the null hypothesis. Under a simple alternative hypothesis with several independent main effects it is only slightly less powerful than logistic regression. In an experimental GWAS data set, the same strong signal is identified while the approach selects none of the SNPs in an underpowered GWAS. The novel variable selection method r2VIM is a promising extension to standard RF for objectively selecting relevant SNPs in GWAS while controlling the number of false-positive results.

Variable Fidelity Aeroelastic Toolkit - Structural Model, Phase I

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a methodology to incorporate variable fidelity structural models into steady and unsteady aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analyses in...

Differences between immigrant and national students in motivational variables and classroom-motivational-climate perception.

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Alonso-Tapia, Jesús; Simón, Carmen

2012-03-01

The objective of this study is to see whether Immigrant (IM) and Spanish (National) students (SP) need different kinds of help from teachers due to differences in motivation, family expectancies and interests and classroom-motivational-climate perception. A sample of Secondary Students -242 Spanish and 243 Immigrants- completed questionnaires assessing goal orientations and expectancies, family attitudes towards academic work, perception of classroom motivational climate and of its effects, satisfaction, disruptive behavior and achievement. ANOVAs showed differences in many of the motivational variables assessed as well as in family attitudes. In most cases, Immigrant students scored lower than Spanish students in the relevant variables. Regression analyses showed that personal and family differences were related to student's satisfaction, achievement and disruptive behavior. Finally, multi-group analysis of classroom-motivational-climate (CMC) showed similarities and differences in the motivational value attributed by IM and SP to each specific teaching pattern that configure the CMC. IM lower self-esteem could explain these results, whose implications for teaching and research are discussed.

Propensity-score matching in economic analyses: comparison with regression models, instrumental variables, residual inclusion, differences-in-differences, and decomposition methods.

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Crown, William H

2014-02-01

This paper examines the use of propensity score matching in economic analyses of observational data. Several excellent papers have previously reviewed practical aspects of propensity score estimation and other aspects of the propensity score literature. The purpose of this paper is to compare the conceptual foundation of propensity score models with alternative estimators of treatment effects. References are provided to empirical comparisons among methods that have appeared in the literature. These comparisons are available for a subset of the methods considered in this paper. However, in some cases, no pairwise comparisons of particular methods are yet available, and there are no examples of comparisons across all of the methods surveyed here. Irrespective of the availability of empirical comparisons, the goal of this paper is to provide some intuition about the relative merits of alternative estimators in health economic evaluations where nonlinearity, sample size, availability of pre/post data, heterogeneity, and missing variables can have important implications for choice of methodology. Also considered is the potential combination of propensity score matching with alternative methods such as differences-in-differences and decomposition methods that have not yet appeared in the empirical literature.

ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY OF NEAR-INFRARED-SELECTED ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouzuma, S.; Yamaoka, H.

2012-01-01

We present the properties of the ensemble variability V for nearly 5000 near-infrared active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from the catalog of Quasars and Active Galactic Nuclei (13th Edition) and the SDSS-DR7 quasar catalog. From three near-infrared point source catalogs, namely, Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS), Deep Near Infrared Survey (DENIS), and UKIDSS/LAS catalogs, we extract 2MASS-DENIS and 2MASS-UKIDSS counterparts for cataloged AGNs by cross-identification between catalogs. We further select variable AGNs based on an optimal criterion for selecting the variable sources. The sample objects are divided into subsets according to whether near-infrared light originates by optical emission or by near-infrared emission in the rest frame; and we examine the correlations of the ensemble variability with the rest-frame wavelength, redshift, luminosity, and rest-frame time lag. In addition, we also examine the correlations of variability amplitude with optical variability, radio intensity, and radio-to-optical flux ratio. The rest-frame optical variability of our samples shows negative correlations with luminosity and positive correlations with rest-frame time lag (i.e., the structure function, SF), and this result is consistent with previous analyses. However, no well-known negative correlation exists between the rest-frame wavelength and optical variability. This inconsistency might be due to a biased sampling of high-redshift AGNs. Near-infrared variability in the rest frame is anticorrelated with the rest-frame wavelength, which is consistent with previous suggestions. However, correlations of near-infrared variability with luminosity and rest-frame time lag are the opposite of these correlations of the optical variability; that is, the near-infrared variability is positively correlated with luminosity but negatively correlated with the rest-frame time lag. Because these trends are qualitatively consistent with the properties of radio-loud quasars reported

Population activity statistics dissect subthreshold and spiking variability in V1.

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Bányai, Mihály; Koman, Zsombor; Orbán, Gergő

2017-07-01

Response variability, as measured by fluctuating responses upon repeated performance of trials, is a major component of neural responses, and its characterization is key to interpret high dimensional population recordings. Response variability and covariability display predictable changes upon changes in stimulus and cognitive or behavioral state, providing an opportunity to test the predictive power of models of neural variability. Still, there is little agreement on which model to use as a building block for population-level analyses, and models of variability are often treated as a subject of choice. We investigate two competing models, the doubly stochastic Poisson (DSP) model assuming stochasticity at spike generation, and the rectified Gaussian (RG) model tracing variability back to membrane potential variance, to analyze stimulus-dependent modulation of both single-neuron and pairwise response statistics. Using a pair of model neurons, we demonstrate that the two models predict similar single-cell statistics. However, DSP and RG models have contradicting predictions on the joint statistics of spiking responses. To test the models against data, we build a population model to simulate stimulus change-related modulations in pairwise response statistics. We use single-unit data from the primary visual cortex (V1) of monkeys to show that while model predictions for variance are qualitatively similar to experimental data, only the RG model's predictions are compatible with joint statistics. These results suggest that models using Poisson-like variability might fail to capture important properties of response statistics. We argue that membrane potential-level modeling of stochasticity provides an efficient strategy to model correlations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Neural variability and covariability are puzzling aspects of cortical computations. For efficient decoding and prediction, models of information encoding in neural populations hinge on an appropriate model of

A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

2018-03-01

To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

2017-12-01

There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bo; Madduri, Ravi K; Sotomayor, Borja; Chard, Kyle; Lacinski, Lukasz; Dave, Utpal J; Li, Jianqiang; Liu, Chunchen; Foster, Ian T

2014-06-01

Due to the upcoming data deluge of genome data, the need for storing and processing large-scale genome data, easy access to biomedical analyses tools, efficient data sharing and retrieval has presented significant challenges. The variability in data volume results in variable computing and storage requirements, therefore biomedical researchers are pursuing more reliable, dynamic and convenient methods for conducting sequencing analyses. This paper proposes a Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses, which enables reliable and highly scalable execution of sequencing analyses workflows in a fully automated manner. Our platform extends the existing Galaxy workflow system by adding data management capabilities for transferring large quantities of data efficiently and reliably (via Globus Transfer), domain-specific analyses tools preconfigured for immediate use by researchers (via user-specific tools integration), automatic deployment on Cloud for on-demand resource allocation and pay-as-you-go pricing (via Globus Provision), a Cloud provisioning tool for auto-scaling (via HTCondor scheduler), and the support for validating the correctness of workflows (via semantic verification tools). Two bioinformatics workflow use cases as well as performance evaluation are presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An innovative statistical approach for analysing non-continuous variables in environmental monitoring: assessing temporal trends of TBT pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, José António; Galante-Oliveira, Susana; Barroso, Carlos

2011-03-01

The current work presents an innovative statistical approach to model ordinal variables in environmental monitoring studies. An ordinal variable has values that can only be compared as "less", "equal" or "greater" and it is not possible to have information about the size of the difference between two particular values. The example of ordinal variable under this study is the vas deferens sequence (VDS) used in imposex (superimposition of male sexual characters onto prosobranch females) field assessment programmes for monitoring tributyltin (TBT) pollution. The statistical methodology presented here is the ordered logit regression model. It assumes that the VDS is an ordinal variable whose values match up a process of imposex development that can be considered continuous in both biological and statistical senses and can be described by a latent non-observable continuous variable. This model was applied to the case study of Nucella lapillus imposex monitoring surveys conducted in the Portuguese coast between 2003 and 2008 to evaluate the temporal evolution of TBT pollution in this country. In order to produce more reliable conclusions, the proposed model includes covariates that may influence the imposex response besides TBT (e.g. the shell size). The model also provides an analysis of the environmental risk associated to TBT pollution by estimating the probability of the occurrence of females with VDS ≥ 2 in each year, according to OSPAR criteria. We consider that the proposed application of this statistical methodology has a great potential in environmental monitoring whenever there is the need to model variables that can only be assessed through an ordinal scale of values.

Increased intra-participant variability in children with autistic spectrum disorder: Evidence from single trial analyses of evoked EEG.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth eMilne

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Intra-participant variability in clinical conditions such as autistic spectrum disorder (ASD is an important indicator of pathophysiological processing. The data reported here illustrate that trial-by-trial variability can be reliably measured from EEG, and that intra-participant EEG variability is significantly greater in those with ASD than in neuro-typical matched controls. EEG recorded at the scalp is a linear mixture of activity arising from muscle artifacts and numerous concurrent brain processes. To minimise these additional sources of variability, EEG data were subjected to two different methods of spatial filtering. (i The data were decomposed using infomax Independent Component Analysis (ICA, a method of blind source separation which un-mixes the EEG signal into components with maximally independent time-courses, and (ii a surface Laplacian transform was performed (Current Source Density interpolation in order to reduce the effects of volume conduction. Data are presented from thirteen high functioning adolescents with ASD without co-morbid ADHD, and twelve neuro-typical age- IQ- and gender-matched controls. Comparison of variability between the ASD and neuro-typical groups indicated that intra-participant variability of P1 latency and P1 amplitude was greater in the participants with ASD, and inter-trial α-band phase coherence was lower in the participants with ASD. These data support the suggestion that individuals with ASD are less able to synchronise the activity of stimulus-related cell assemblies than neuro-typical individuals, and provide empirical evidence in support of theories of increased neural noise in ASD.

Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolle, Marie; Debret, Maxime; Massei, Nicolas; Colin, Christophe; deVernal, Anne; Divine, Dmitry; Werner, Johannes P.; Hormes, Anne; Korhola, Atte; Linderholm, Hans W.

2018-01-01

To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ˜ 16-30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ˜ 20-30- and ˜ 50-90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice-temperature positive feedback.

Soil structure interaction model and variability of parameters in seismic analysis of nuclear island connected building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, K.V.; Palekar, S.M.; Bavare, M.S.; Mapari, H.A.; Patel, S.C.; Pillai, C.S.

2005-01-01

This paper provides salient features of the Soil Structure Interaction analysis of Nuclear Island Connected Building (NICB). The dynamic analysis of NICB is performed on a full 3D model accounting for the probable variation in the stiffness of the founding medium. A range analyses was performed to establish the effect of variability of subgrade parameters on the results of seismic analyses of NICB. This paper presents details of various analyses with respect to the subgrade model, uncertainties in subgrade properties, results of seismic analyses and a study of effect of the variability of parameters on the results of these analyses. The results of this study indicate that the variability of soil parameters beyond a certain value of shear wave velocity does not influence the response and in fact the response marginally diminishes. (authors)

Exergetic and thermoeconomic analyses of power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwak, H.-Y.; Kim, D.-J.; Jeon, J.-S.

2003-01-01

Exergetic and thermoeconomic analyses were performed for a 500-MW combined cycle plant. In these analyses, mass and energy conservation laws were applied to each component of the system. Quantitative balances of the exergy and exergetic cost for each component, and for the whole system was carefully considered. The exergoeconomic model, which represented the productive structure of the system considered, was used to visualize the cost formation process and the productive interaction between components. The computer program developed in this study can determine the production costs of power plants, such as gas- and steam-turbines plants and gas-turbine cogeneration plants. The program can be also be used to study plant characteristics, namely, thermodynamic performance and sensitivity to changes in process and/or component design variables

Comparison of environmental forcings affecting suspended sediments variability in two macrotidal, highly-turbid estuaries

Science.gov (United States)

Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Schmidt, Sabine; Sottolichio, Aldo

2017-11-01

The relative contribution of environmental forcing frequencies on turbidity variability is, for the first time, quantified at seasonal and multiannual time scales in tidal estuarine systems. With a decade of high-frequency, multi-site turbidity monitoring, the two nearby, macrotidal and highly-turbid Gironde and Loire estuaries (west France) are excellent natural laboratories for this purpose. Singular Spectrum Analyses, combined with Lomb-Scargle periodograms and Wavelet Transforms, were applied to the continuous multiannual turbidity time series. Frequencies of the main environmental factors affecting turbidity were identified: hydrological regime (high versus low river discharges), river flow variability, tidal range, tidal cycles, and turbulence. Their relative influences show similar patterns in both estuaries and depend on the estuarine region (lower or upper estuary) and the time scale (multiannual or seasonal). On the multiannual time scale, the relative contribution of tidal frequencies (tidal cycles and range) to turbidity variability decreases up-estuary from 68% to 47%, while the influence of river flow frequencies increases from 3% to 42%. On the seasonal time scale, the relative influence of forcings frequencies remains almost constant in the lower estuary, dominated by tidal frequencies (60% and 30% for tidal cycles and tidal range, respectively); in the upper reaches, it is variable depending on hydrological regime, even if tidal frequencies are responsible for up 50% of turbidity variance. These quantifications show the potential of combined spectral analyses to compare the behavior of suspended sediment in tidal estuaries throughout the world and to evaluate long-term changes in environmental forcings, especially in a context of global change. The relevance of this approach to compare nearby and overseas systems and to support management strategies is discussed (e.g., selection of effective operation frequencies/regions, prediction of the most

Gender as a Macro Economic Variable

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ This chapter will analyse how gender can be used in a meaningful way in macroeconomic analysis. The challenge is that gender cannot be measured easily at the macro level. This is either because current gender variables are one-dimensional and miss out much gender

Gender as a Macro Economic Variable

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

2013-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ This chapter will analyse how gender can be used in a meaningful way in macroeconomic analysis. The challenge is that gender cannot be measured easily at the macro level. This is either because current gender variables are one-dimensional and miss out much gender

Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Towers, S.

2014-01-01

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible

Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Towers, S., E-mail: smtowers@asu.edu

2014-07-30

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible.

Phenotypic and functional analyses show stem cell-derived hepatocyte-like cells better mimic fetal rather than adult hepatocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Baxter, Melissa; Withey, Sarah; Harrison, Sean; Segeritz, Charis-Patricia; Zhang, Fang; Atkinson-Dell, Rebecca; Rowe, Cliff; Gerrard, Dave T; Sison-Young, Rowena; Jenkins, Roz; Henry, Joanne; Berry, Andrew A; Mohamet, Lisa; Best, Marie; Fenwick, Stephen W; Malik, Hassan; Kitteringham, Neil R; Goldring, Chris E; Piper Hanley, Karen; Vallier, Ludovic; Hanley, Neil A

2015-03-01

Hepatocyte-like cells (HLCs), differentiated from pluripotent stem cells by the use of soluble factors, can model human liver function and toxicity. However, at present HLC maturity and whether any deficit represents a true fetal state or aberrant differentiation is unclear and compounded by comparison to potentially deteriorated adult hepatocytes. Therefore, we generated HLCs from multiple lineages, using two different protocols, for direct comparison with fresh fetal and adult hepatocytes. Protocols were developed for robust differentiation. Multiple transcript, protein and functional analyses compared HLCs to fresh human fetal and adult hepatocytes. HLCs were comparable to those of other laboratories by multiple parameters. Transcriptional changes during differentiation mimicked human embryogenesis and showed more similarity to pericentral than periportal hepatocytes. Unbiased proteomics demonstrated greater proximity to liver than 30 other human organs or tissues. However, by comparison to fresh material, HLC maturity was proven by transcript, protein and function to be fetal-like and short of the adult phenotype. The expression of 81% phase 1 enzymes in HLCs was significantly upregulated and half were statistically not different from fetal hepatocytes. HLCs secreted albumin and metabolized testosterone (CYP3A) and dextrorphan (CYP2D6) like fetal hepatocytes. In seven bespoke tests, devised by principal components analysis to distinguish fetal from adult hepatocytes, HLCs from two different source laboratories consistently demonstrated fetal characteristics. HLCs from different sources are broadly comparable with unbiased proteomic evidence for faithful differentiation down the liver lineage. This current phenotype mimics human fetal rather than adult hepatocytes. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stable carbon isotope analyses of nanogram quantities of particulate organic carbon (pollen) with laser ablation nano combustion gas chromatography/isotope ratio mass spectrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Sluijs, Appy; Laks, Jelmer J.; Reichart, Gert‐Jan

2016-01-01

Rationale Analyses of stable carbon isotope ratios (δ 13C values) of organic and inorganic matter remains have been instrumental for much of our understanding of present and past environmental and biological processes. Until recently, the analytical window of such analyses has been limited to samples containing at least several μg of carbon. Methods Here we present a setup combining laser ablation, nano combustion gas chromatography and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (LA/nC/GC/IRMS). A deep UV (193 nm) laser is used for optimal fragmentation of organic matter with minimum fractionation effects and an exceptionally small ablation chamber and combustion oven are used to reduce the minimum sample mass requirement compared with previous studies. Results Analyses of the international IAEA CH‐7 polyethylene standard show optimal accuracy, and precision better than 0.5‰, when measuring at least 42 ng C. Application to untreated modern Eucalyptus globulus (C3 plant) and Zea mays (C4 plant) pollen grains shows a ~ 16‰ offset between these species. Within each single Z. mays pollen grain, replicate analyses show almost identical δ 13C values. Conclusions Isotopic offsets between individual pollen grains exceed analytical uncertainties, therefore probably reflecting interspecimen variability of ~0.5–0.9‰. These promising results set the stage for investigating both δ 13C values and natural carbon isotopic variability between single specimens of a single population of all kinds of organic particles yielding tens of nanograms of carbon. © 2016 The Authors. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27766694

Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

2009-06-01

Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

variability of in vitro and phenological behaviours of cocoa hybrids

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ACSS

analyse the variability of the in vitro and phenological behaviours of 6 cocoa ... The 4 aforementioned hybrids could be used to produce cocoa aroma, ... hybrids using a multivariate approach. .... 3 clusters and variables was assessed through ... function, and (iv) analysis of the representation quality. Thus, the number of ...

The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanuel K. Derbile

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana. Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

Transmission Characteristics of Primate Vocalizations: Implications for Acoustic Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Maciej, Peter; Fischer, Julia; Hammerschmidt, Kurt

2011-01-01

Acoustic analyses have become a staple method in field studies of animal vocal communication, with nearly all investigations using computer-based approaches to extract specific features from sounds. Various algorithms can be used to extract acoustic variables that may then be related to variables such as individual identity, context or reproductive state. Habitat structure and recording conditions, however, have strong effects on the acoustic structure of sound signals. The purpose of this study was to identify which acoustic parameters reliably describe features of propagated sounds. We conducted broadcast experiments and examined the influence of habitat type, transmission height, and re-recording distance on the validity (deviation from the original sound) and reliability (variation within identical recording conditions) of acoustic features of different primate call types. Validity and reliability varied independently of each other in relation to habitat, transmission height, and re-recording distance, and depended strongly on the call type. The smallest deviations from the original sounds were obtained by a visually-controlled calculation of the fundamental frequency. Start- and end parameters of a sound were most susceptible to degradation in the environment. Because the recording conditions can have appreciable effects on acoustic parameters, it is advisable to validate the extraction method of acoustic variables from recordings over longer distances before using them in acoustic analyses. PMID:21829682

How Genes Modulate Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100: Biodemographic Models and Methods in Genetic Analyses of Longitudinal Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Wu, Deqing; Arbeeva, Liubov; Kulminski, Alexander; Kulminskaya, Irina; Akushevich, Igor; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.

2016-01-01

Background and Objective To clarify mechanisms of genetic regulation of human aging and longevity traits, a number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of these traits have been performed. However, the results of these analyses did not meet expectations of the researchers. Most detected genetic associations have not reached a genome-wide level of statistical significance, and suffered from the lack of replication in the studies of independent populations. The reasons for slow progress in this research area include low efficiency of statistical methods used in data analyses, genetic heterogeneity of aging and longevity related traits, possibility of pleiotropic (e.g., age dependent) effects of genetic variants on such traits, underestimation of the effects of (i) mortality selection in genetically heterogeneous cohorts, (ii) external factors and differences in genetic backgrounds of individuals in the populations under study, the weakness of conceptual biological framework that does not fully account for above mentioned factors. One more limitation of conducted studies is that they did not fully realize the potential of longitudinal data that allow for evaluating how genetic influences on life span are mediated by physiological variables and other biomarkers during the life course. The objective of this paper is to address these issues. Data and Methods We performed GWAS of human life span using different subsets of data from the original Framingham Heart Study cohort corresponding to different quality control (QC) procedures and used one subset of selected genetic variants for further analyses. We used simulation study to show that approach to combining data improves the quality of GWAS. We used FHS longitudinal data to compare average age trajectories of physiological variables in carriers and non-carriers of selected genetic variants. We used stochastic process model of human mortality and aging to investigate genetic influence on hidden biomarkers of aging

Application of the Random Forest method to analyse epidemiological and phenotypic characteristics of Salmonella 4,[5],12:i:- and Salmonella Typhimurium strains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barco, L.; Mancin, M.; Ruffa, M.

2012-01-01

in Italy, particularly as far as veterinary isolates are concerned. For this reason, a data set of 877 strains isolated in the north-east of Italy from foodstuffs, animals and environment was analysed during 2005-2010. The Random Forests (RF) method was used to identify the most important epidemiological...... and phenotypic variables to show the difference between the two serovars. Both descriptive analysis and RF revealed that S. 4,[5],12:i:- is less heterogeneous than S. Typhimurium. RF highlighted that phage type was the most important variable to differentiate the two serovars. The most common phage types...

The Impact of Energy Price Decline on China's Energy-Economy-Environment System Variables Using a CGE Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Zhengquan; Wang, Daojuan; Chen, Chong

In recent years, prices of coal and crude oil have fallen significantly. These declines have had a large impact on China’s energy-economy-environment system variables. This paper establishes a computable general equilibrium model to systematically analyse the impact of coal price changes alone...... or the decline of both coal and oil prices on the variables of China's energy-economy-environment system. The results of the analysis show that the decline of the coal price alone or of coal and crude oil prices together will lead to a significant increase in demand for either coal and total energy or coal...

ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

2017-01-01

A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

Linear latent variable models: the lava-package

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Klaus Kähler; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2013-01-01

are implemented including robust standard errors for clustered correlated data, multigroup analyses, non-linear parameter constraints, inference with incomplete data, maximum likelihood estimation with censored and binary observations, and instrumental variable estimators. In addition an extensive simulation......An R package for specifying and estimating linear latent variable models is presented. The philosophy of the implementation is to separate the model specification from the actual data, which leads to a dynamic and easy way of modeling complex hierarchical structures. Several advanced features...

The sequence of cortical activity inferred by response latency variability in the human ventral pathway of face processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jo-Fu Lotus; Silva-Pereyra, Juan; Chou, Chih-Che; Lin, Fa-Hsuan

2018-04-11

Variability in neuronal response latency has been typically considered caused by random noise. Previous studies of single cells and large neuronal populations have shown that the temporal variability tends to increase along the visual pathway. Inspired by these previous studies, we hypothesized that functional areas at later stages in the visual pathway of face processing would have larger variability in the response latency. To test this hypothesis, we used magnetoencephalographic data collected when subjects were presented with images of human faces. Faces are known to elicit a sequence of activity from the primary visual cortex to the fusiform gyrus. Our results revealed that the fusiform gyrus showed larger variability in the response latency compared to the calcarine fissure. Dynamic and spectral analyses of the latency variability indicated that the response latency in the fusiform gyrus was more variable than in the calcarine fissure between 70 ms and 200 ms after the stimulus onset and between 4 Hz and 40 Hz, respectively. The sequential processing of face information from the calcarine sulcus to the fusiform sulcus was more reliably detected based on sizes of the response variability than instants of the maximal response peaks. With two areas in the ventral visual pathway, we show that the variability in response latency across brain areas can be used to infer the sequence of cortical activity.

Multi-level Bayesian analyses for single- and multi-vehicle freeway crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2013-09-01

This study presents multi-level analyses for single- and multi-vehicle crashes on a mountainous freeway. Data from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 were investigated. Both aggregate and disaggregate models for the two crash conditions were developed. Five years of crash data were used in the aggregate investigation, while the disaggregate models utilized one year of crash data along with real-time traffic and weather data. For the aggregate analyses, safety performance functions were developed for the purpose of revealing the contributing factors for each crash type. Two methodologies, a Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model and a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with correlated random effects, were estimated to simultaneously analyze the two crash conditions with consideration of possible correlations. Except for the factors related to geometric characteristics, two exposure parameters (annual average daily traffic and segment length) were included. Two different sets of significant explanatory and exposure variables were identified for the single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) crashes. It was found that the Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model is superior to the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model, the former with a substantially lower DIC and more significant variables. In addition to the aggregate analyses, microscopic real-time crash risk evaluation models were developed for the two crash conditions. Multi-level Bayesian logistic regression models were estimated with the random parameters accounting for seasonal variations, crash-unit-level diversity and segment-level random effects capturing unobserved heterogeneity caused by the geometric characteristics. The model results indicate that the effects of the selected variables on crash occurrence vary across seasons and crash units; and that geometric characteristic variables contribute to the segment variations: the more unobserved heterogeneity have been accounted, the better

A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH TO ANALYSE NATIVE FOREST TREE SPECIE SEEDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio

2006-03-01

Full Text Available This work grouped, by species, the most similar seed tree, using the variables observed in exotic forest species of theBrazilian flora of seeds collected in the Forest Research and Soil Conservation Center of Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, analyzedfrom January, 1997, to march, 2003. For the cluster analysis, all the species that possessed four or more analyses per lot wereanalyzed by the hierarchical Clustering method, of the standardized Euclidian medium distance, being also a principal componentanalysis technique for reducing the number of variables. The species Callistemon speciosus, Cassia fistula, Eucalyptus grandis,Eucalyptus robusta, Eucalyptus saligna, Eucalyptus tereticornis, Delonix regia, Jacaranda mimosaefolia e Pinus elliottii presentedmore than four analyses per lot, in which the third and fourth main components explained 80% of the total variation. The clusteranalysis was efficient in the separation of the groups of all tested species, as well as the method of the main components.

In search of psychosocial variables linked to the recidivism in young offenders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María del Carmen Cano

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the literature on juvenile delinquency is aimed to the identification of the protective and risk factors of the antisocial and criminal behaviors. In this line, a study was carried out to assess whether the family setting, personal variables of the youngster and variables linked to the judicial measure execution mediate in recidivism. For this reason, all the closed judicial files of the young offenders from the Service of Juvenile Justice in Jaén (Spain have been analysed. The results showed that such family setting variables as broken homes, large families, low incomes, deprived neighborhoods, criminal records, drug abuse, children protection records and crime legitimacy are linked to recidivism. As for personal variables of the youngster, the findings illustrate that re-offenders are characterized by external attribution, deficits in social skills, deficits in self-control, violent behaviors and low tolerance to frustration. In relation to the judicial measure execution variables, data support that the non re-offenders are defined in contrast to re-offenders, by a high compliance with rules and timetables and with the established objectives, as well as a high family involvement during the judicial measure execution. The implications of the results for prevention of recidivism are discussed.

Compositional variability in Mediterranean archaeofaunas from Upper Paleolithic Southwest Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Emily Lena

2018-03-01

Recent meta-analyses of Upper Paleolithic Southwestern European archaeofaunas (Jones, 2015, 2016) have identified a consistent "Mediterranean" cluster from the Last Glacial Maximum through the early Holocene, suggesting similarities in environment and/or consistency in hunting strategy across this region through time despite radical changes in climate. However, while these archaeofaunas from this cluster all derive from sites located within today's Mediterranean bioclimatic region, many of them are from locations far from the Mediterranean Sea - Atlantic Portugal, the Spanish Meseta - which today differ significantly from each other in biotic composition. In this paper, I explore clustering (through cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling) within the Mediterranean archaeofaunal group. I test for the influence of sample size as well as the geographic variables of site elevation, latitude, and longitude on variability in the large mammal portions of archaeofaunal assemblages. ANOVA shows no relationship between cluster-defined groups and site elevation or longitude; instead, site latitude appears to be a primary contributor to patterning. However, the overall compositional similarity of the Mediterranean archaeofaunas in this dataset suggests more consistency than variability in Upper Paleolithic hunting strategy in this region.

On the K-term and dispersion ratios of semi-regular variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aslan, Z.

1981-01-01

Optical velocities of semi-regular (SR) and irregular (Lb) variables are analysed for a K-term. There is evidence for a dependence upon stellar period. Absorption lines in shorter period non-emission SR variables are blue-shifted relative to the centre-of-mass velocity by about 6 +- 3 km s -1 . Emission-line SR variables give a non-negative absorption K-term and Lb variables give no K-terms other than zero. Comparison is made with the K-terms implied by the OH velocity pattern in long-period variables. Dispersion ratios are also calculated. (author)

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

Science.gov (United States)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Weight analyses and nitrogen balance assay in rats fed extruded ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Weight analyses and nitrogen balance assay in adult rats in raw and extruded African breadfruit (Treculia africana) based diets were carried out using response surface methodology in a central composite design. Process variables were feed composition (40 - 100 % African breadfruit, 0 - 5 % corn and 0 - 55 % soybean, ...

Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

2016-01-01

Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe. PMID:27092012

Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

2016-04-01

Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

Cirque Glacier on South Georgia Shows Centennial Variability over the Last 7000 Years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lea T. Oppedal

2018-02-01

Full Text Available A 7000 year-long cirque glacier reconstruction from South Georgia, based on detailed analysis of fine-grained sediments deposited downstream in a bog and a lake, suggests continued presence during most of the Holocene. Glacier activity is inferred from various sedimentary properties including magnetic susceptibility (MS, dry bulk density (DBD, loss-on-ignition (LOI and geochemical elements (XRF, and tallied to a set of terminal moraines. The two independently dated sediment records document concurring events of enhanced glacigenic sediment influx to the bog and lake, whereas the upstream moraines afford the opportunity to calculate past Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELA which has varied in the order of 70 m altitude. Combined, the records provide new evidence of cirque glacier fluctuations on South Georgia. Based on the onset of peat formation, the study site was deglaciated prior to 9900 ± 250 years ago when Neumayer tidewater glacier retreated up-fjord. Changes in the lake and bog sediment properties indicate that the cirque glacier was close to its maximum Holocene extent between 7200 ± 400 and 4800 ± 200 cal BP, 2700 ± 150 and 2000 ± 200 cal BP, 500 ± 150–300 ± 100 cal BP, and in the Twentieth century (likely 1930s. The glacier fluctuations are largely in-phase with reconstructed Patagonian glaciers, implying that they respond to centennial climate variability possibly connected to corresponding modulations of the Southern Westerly Winds.

Cirque glacier on South Georgia shows centennial variability over the last 7000 years

Science.gov (United States)

Oppedal, Lea T.; Bakke, Jostein; Paasche, Øyvind; Werner, Johannes P.; van der Bilt, Willem G. M.

2018-02-01

A 7000 year-long cirque glacier reconstruction from South Georgia, based on detailed analysis of fine-grained sediments deposited downstream in a bog and a lake, suggests continued presence during most of the Holocene. Glacier activity is inferred from various sedimentary properties including magnetic susceptibility (MS), dry bulk density (DBD), loss-on-ignition (LOI) and geochemical elements (XRF), and tallied to a set of terminal moraines. The two independently dated sediment records document concurring events of enhanced glacigenic sediment influx to the bog and lake, whereas the upstream moraines afford the opportunity to calculate past Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELA) which has varied in the order of 70 m altitude. Combined, the records provide new evidence of cirque glacier fluctuations on South Georgia. Based on the onset of peat formation, the study site was deglaciated prior to 9900±250 years ago when Neumayer tidewater glacier retreated up-fjord. Changes in the lake and bog sediment properties indicate that the cirque glacier was close to its maximum Holocene extent between 7200±400 and 4800±200 cal BP, 2700±150 and 2000±200 cal BP, 500±150-300±100 cal BP, and in the 20th century (likely 1930s). The glacier fluctuations are largely in-phase with reconstructed Patagonian glaciers, implying that they respond to centennial climate variability possibly connected to corresponding modulations of the Southern Westerly Winds.

Coding completeness and quality of relative survival-related variables in the National Program of Cancer Registries Cancer Surveillance System, 1995-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Reda J; O'Neil, M E; Ntekop, E; Zhang, Kevin; Ren, Y

2014-01-01

Calculating accurate estimates of cancer survival is important for various analyses of cancer patient care and prognosis. Current US survival rates are estimated based on data from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI's) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End RESULTS (SEER) program, covering approximately 28 percent of the US population. The National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) covers about 96 percent of the US population. Using a population-based database with greater US population coverage to calculate survival rates at the national, state, and regional levels can further enhance the effective monitoring of cancer patient care and prognosis in the United States. The first step is to establish the coding completeness and coding quality of the NPCR data needed for calculating survival rates and conducting related validation analyses. Using data from the NPCR-Cancer Surveillance System (CSS) from 1995 through 2008, we assessed coding completeness and quality on 26 data elements that are needed to calculate cancer relative survival estimates and conduct related analyses. Data elements evaluated consisted of demographic, follow-up, prognostic, and cancer identification variables. Analyses were performed showing trends of these variables by diagnostic year, state of residence at diagnosis, and cancer site. Mean overall percent coding completeness by each NPCR central cancer registry averaged across all data elements and diagnosis years ranged from 92.3 percent to 100 percent. RESULTS showing the mean percent coding completeness for the relative survival-related variables in NPCR data are presented. All data elements but 1 have a mean coding completeness greater than 90 percent as was the mean completeness by data item group type. Statistically significant differences in coding completeness were found in the ICD revision number, cause of death, vital status, and date of last contact variables when comparing diagnosis years. The majority of data items had a coding

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

2018-02-01

Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

POVMs and hidden variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stairs, Allen

2007-01-01

Recent results by Paul Busch and Adan Cabello claim to show that by appealing to POVMs, non-contextual hidden variables can be ruled out in two dimensions. While the results of Busch and Cabello are mathematically correct, interpretive problems render them problematic as no hidden variable proofs

Group and Individual Variability in Mouse Pup Isolation Calls Recorded on the Same Day Show Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Terra D. Barnes

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Mice produce ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs in a variety of social situations, and USVs have been leveraged to study many neurological diseases including verbal dyspraxia, depression, autism and stuttering. Pups produce isolation calls, a common USV, spontaneously when they are isolated from their mother during the first 2 weeks of life. Several genetic manipulations affect (and often reduce pup isolation calls in mice. To facilitate the use of this assay as a means of testing whether significant functional differences in genotypes exist instead of contextual differences, we test the variability inherent in many commons measures of mouse vocalizations. Here we use biological consistency as a way of determining which are reproducible in mouse pup vocalizations. We present a comprehensive analysis of the normal variability of these vocalizations in groups of mice, individual mice and different strains of mice. To control for maturation effects, we recorded pup isolation calls in the same group of C57BL/6J 5 days old mice twice, with 1 h of rest in between recordings. In almost all cases, the group averages between the first and second recordings were the same. We also found that there were high correlations in some parameters in individual mice across recording while others were not well correlated. These findings could be replicated for the majority of features in a separate group of C57BL/6J mice and a group of 129/SvEvBrd-C57BL/6J mice. The averages of these mouse USV features are highly consistent and represent a robust assay to test the effects of genetic and other interventions in the experimental setting.

Longitudinal Variations in the Variability of Spread F Occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, K. M.; Bridgwood, C.; Carrano, C. S.

2017-12-01

The complex dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere have attracted the interest and attention of researchers for many decades. The relatively local processes that give rise to large meridional gradients have been well documented and the associated terminology has entered the common lexicon of ionospheric research (e.g., fountain effect, equatorial anomaly, bubbles, Spread F). Zonal variations have also been noted, principally at the level of determining longitudinal differences in seasonal activity patterns. Due to a historical lack of high resolution ground-based observations at low latitudes, the primary source of data for such analyses has been space-based observations from satellites such as ROCSAT, DMSP, C/NOFS that measure in situ electron density variations. An important longitudinal variation in electron density structure associated with non-migrating diurnal tides was discovered by Immel et al. in 2006 using data from the FUV sensor aboard the NASA IMAGE satellite. These satellite observations have been very helpful in identifying the structural characteristics of the equatorial ionosphere and the occurrence of Spread F, but they provide little insight into variations in scintillation features and potential differences in bubble development characteristics. Moreover space-based studies tend towards the statistics of occurrence frequency over periods of weeks to months. A recent analysis of daily spread F occurrence as determined by low latitude VHF scintillation activity shows that statistical results that are consistent with previous space-based observations, but the level of variability in the occurrence data show marked variations with longitude. For example, the American sector shows very low in-season variability while the African and Asian sectors exhibit true day-to-day variability regardless of seasonal variations. The results have significant implications for space weather as they suggest that long-term forecasts of equatorial scintillation may be

Protocols for 16S rDNA Array Analyses of Microbial Communities by Sequence-Specific Labeling of DNA Probes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knut Rudi

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Analyses of complex microbial communities are becoming increasingly important. Bottlenecks in these analyses, however, are the tools to actually describe the biodiversity. Novel protocols for DNA array-based analyses of microbial communities are presented. In these protocols, the specificity obtained by sequence-specific labeling of DNA probes is combined with the possibility of detecting several different probes simultaneously by DNA array hybridization. The gene encoding 16S ribosomal RNA was chosen as the target in these analyses. This gene contains both universally conserved regions and regions with relatively high variability. The universally conserved regions are used for PCR amplification primers, while the variable regions are used for the specific probes. Protocols are presented for DNA purification, probe construction, probe labeling, and DNA array hybridizations.

Observations on the spatial variability of the Prut river discharges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emil-Andrei BRICIU

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Liquid and solid discharges of the Prut River were analysed based on measurementsperformed in 7 points from the Romanian national network of water monitoring during aperiod of 30 years. The analyses were performed on flows for the period after theconstruction of the Stânca-Costeşti dam and show the influence of the dam for the entireanalysed time. The analysis from upstream to downstream of the spatial variability of thePrut River annual discharges showed their steady increase downstream and then adecrease in the sector next to Oancea station. A statistical minority of the annualdischarges showed a continuous increase of them until the flowing of Prut into Danube.Knowing that the lower basin of the river is characterized by a low amount of rainfall anda higher evapo(transpiration than the remaining basin, the decreasing flows to the rivermouth is explicable; but the increasing flows to the river mouth cannot be justified, underthese conditions of water balance, than by certain climatological parameters of thermodynamicalnature which generate, with increased frequency, more intense and rich rainfall, with a torrential character. The analyses on couples of three months showed thatthe Oancea flows are higher than the upstream stations (opposite than usual in yearswhen the flows of the upstream hydrometrical stations are lower than the multiannualaverage and that supports the mentioned pluviometrical character. A plausible cause for"Oancea phenomenon" is the increase and the decrease of the sunspots number, whosecycles are relatively well fold on the increase and decrease of annual average flow atOancea hydrometrical station. The strongest increased discharges of the Prut River overthe discharges at the upstream stations occur from May to July (MJJ, the months with thehighest amount of rainfall. Seasonal analysis of MJJ and other couples of 3 monthsshowed that there are also growing flows at Prisăcani station relative to the adjacentstations, but

Aggressive fibromatosis - impact of prognostic variables on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective. To determine the impact of prognostic variables on local control in patients with aggressive fibromatosis treated with or without radiation. Materials and methods. Forty-two patients presenting to the combined sarcoma clinic at Johannesburg Hospital with aggressive fibromatosis from 1990 to 2003 were analysed ...

The complexity of millennial-scale variability in southwestern Europe during MIS 11

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Dulce; Desprat, Stéphanie; Rodrigues, Teresa; Naughton, Filipa; Hodell, David; Trigo, Ricardo; Rufino, Marta; Lopes, Cristina; Abrantes, Fátima; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda

2016-11-01

Climatic variability of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 is examined using a new high-resolution direct land-sea comparison from the SW Iberian margin Site U1385. This study, based on pollen and biomarker analyses, documents regional vegetation, terrestrial climate and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Suborbital climate variability is revealed by a series of forest decline events suggesting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia throughout MIS 11. Only the most severe events on land are coeval with SST decreases, under larger ice volume conditions. Our study shows that the diverse expression (magnitude, character and duration) of the millennial-scale cooling events in SW Europe relies on atmospheric and oceanic processes whose predominant role likely depends on baseline climate states. Repeated atmospheric shifts recalling the positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode, inducing dryness in SW Iberia without systematical SST changes, would prevail during low ice volume conditions. In contrast, disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), related to iceberg discharges, colder SST and increased hydrological regime, would be responsible for the coldest and driest episodes of prolonged duration in SW Europe.

Variables As Currency: Linking Meta-Analysis Research and Data Paths in Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hua Qin

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Meta-analyses are studies that bring together data or results from multiple independent studies to produce new and over-arching findings. Current data curation systems only partially support meta-analytic research. Some important meta-analytic tasks, such as the selection of relevant studies for review and the integration of research datasets or findings, are not well supported in current data curation systems. To design tools and services that more fully support meta-analyses, we need a better understanding of meta-analytic research. This includes an understanding of both the practices of researchers who perform the analyses and the characteristics of the individual studies that are brought together. In this study, we make an initial contribution to filling this gap by developing a conceptual framework linking meta-analyses with data paths represented in published articles selected for the analysis. The framework focuses on key variables that represent primary/secondary datasets or derived socio-ecological data, contexts of use, and the data transformations that are applied. We introduce the notion of using variables and their relevant information (e.g., metadata and variable relationships as a type of currency to facilitate synthesis of findings across individual studies and leverage larger bodies of relevant source data produced in small science research. Handling variables in this manner provides an equalizing factor between data from otherwise disparate data-producing communities. We conclude with implications for exploring data integration and synthesis issues as well as system development.

Uncertainty analyses of the countermeasures module of the program system UFOMOD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.; Burkart, K.

1989-10-01

This report refers to uncertainty analyses of the countermeasures submodule of the program system UFOMOD, version NE 87/1, whose important input parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bands of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of individual acute organ doses (lung, bone marrow), individual risks (pulmonary and hematopoietic syndrome) and the corresponding number of early fatalities, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bands a model parameter sample size of n=60 equal to 3 times the number of uncertain model parameters is chosen. For a reduced set of nine model parameters a sample size of n=50 is selected. A total of 20 uncertain parameters is considered. The most sensitive parameters of the countermeasures submodule of UFOMOD appeared to be the initial delay of emergency actions in a keyhole shaped area A and the fractions of the population evacuating area A spontaneously during the sheltering period or staying outdoors. Under the conditions of the source term the influence on the overall uncertainty in the consequence variables - individual acute organ doses, individual risks and early fatalities - of driving times to leave the evacuation area is small. (orig./HP) [de

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamil, Faisal, E-mail: fsljml@hotmail.com [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Ahmad, Eatzaz, E-mail: eatzaz@qau.edu.pk [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

2011-09-15

Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: > The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. > Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. > We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. > The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. > Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

gHRV: Heart rate variability analysis made easy.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Liñares, L; Lado, M J; Vila, X A; Méndez, A J; Cuesta, P

2014-08-01

In this paper, the gHRV software tool is presented. It is a simple, free and portable tool developed in python for analysing heart rate variability. It includes a graphical user interface and it can import files in multiple formats, analyse time intervals in the signal, test statistical significance and export the results. This paper also contains, as an example of use, a clinical analysis performed with the gHRV tool, namely to determine whether the heart rate variability indexes change across different stages of sleep. Results from tests completed by researchers who have tried gHRV are also explained: in general the application was positively valued and results reflect a high level of satisfaction. gHRV is in continuous development and new versions will include suggestions made by testers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

Effect of oligonucleotide primers in determining viral variability within hosts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moya Andrés

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic variability in viral populations is usually estimated by means of polymerase chain reaction (PCR based methods in which the relative abundance of each amplicon is assumed to be proportional to the frequency of the corresponding template in the initial sample. Although bias in template-to-product ratios has been described before, its relevance in describing viral genetic variability at the intrapatient level has not been fully assessed yet. Results To investigate the role of oligonucleotide design in estimating viral variability within hosts, genetic diversity in hepatitis C virus (HCV populations from eight infected patients was characterised by two parallel PCR amplifications performed with two slightly different sets of primers, followed by cloning and sequencing (mean = 89 cloned sequences per patient. Population genetics analyses of viral populations recovered by pairs of amplifications revealed that in seven patients statistically significant differences were detected between populations sampled with different set of primers. Conclusions Genetic variability analyses demonstrates that PCR selection due to the choice of primers, differing in their degeneracy degree at some nucleotide positions, can eclipse totally or partially viral variants, hence yielding significant different estimates of viral variability within a single patient and therefore eventually producing quite different qualitative and quantitative descriptions of viral populations within each host.

Effect of oligonucleotide primers in determining viral variability within hosts.

Science.gov (United States)

Bracho, Maria Alma; García-Robles, Inmaculada; Jiménez, Nuria; Torres-Puente, Manuela; Moya, Andrés; González-Candelas, Fernando

2004-12-09

Genetic variability in viral populations is usually estimated by means of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based methods in which the relative abundance of each amplicon is assumed to be proportional to the frequency of the corresponding template in the initial sample. Although bias in template-to-product ratios has been described before, its relevance in describing viral genetic variability at the intrapatient level has not been fully assessed yet. To investigate the role of oligonucleotide design in estimating viral variability within hosts, genetic diversity in hepatitis C virus (HCV) populations from eight infected patients was characterised by two parallel PCR amplifications performed with two slightly different sets of primers, followed by cloning and sequencing (mean = 89 cloned sequences per patient). Population genetics analyses of viral populations recovered by pairs of amplifications revealed that in seven patients statistically significant differences were detected between populations sampled with different set of primers. Genetic variability analyses demonstrates that PCR selection due to the choice of primers, differing in their degeneracy degree at some nucleotide positions, can eclipse totally or partially viral variants, hence yielding significant different estimates of viral variability within a single patient and therefore eventually producing quite different qualitative and quantitative descriptions of viral populations within each host.

Quality of meta-analyses in major leading gastroenterology and hepatology journals: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pengfei; Qiu, Yuanyu; Qian, Yuting; Chen, Xiao; Wang, Yiran; Cui, Jin; Zhai, Xiao

2017-01-01

To appraise the current reporting methodological quality of meta-analyses in five leading gastroenterology and hepatology journals, and to identify the variables associated with the reporting quality. We systematically searched the literature of meta-analyses in Gastroenterology, Gut, Hepatology, Journal of Hepatology (J HEPATOL) and American Journal of Gastroenterology (AM J GASTROENTEROL) from 2006 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2014. Characteristics were extracted based on the PRISMA statement and the AMSTAR tool. Country, number of patients, funding source were also revealed and descriptively reported. A total of 127 meta-analyses were enrolled in this study and were compared among journals, study years, and other characters. Compliances with the PRISMA statement and the AMSTAR checklist were 20.8 ± 4.2 out of a maximum of 27 and 7.6 ± 2.4 out of a maximum of 11, respectively. Some domains were poorly reported including describing a protocol and/or registration (item 5, 0.0%), describing methods, and giving results of additional analyses (item 16, 45.7% and item 23, 48.0%) for PRISMA and duplicating study selection and data extraction (item 2, 53.5%), and providing a list of included and excluded studies (item 5, 14.2%) for AMSTAR. Publication in recent years showed a significantly better methodological quality than those published in previous years. This study shows that methodological reporting quality of MAs in the major gastroenterology and hepatology journals has improved in recent years after the publication of the developed PRISMA statement, and it can be further improved. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Family Accommodation in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: A Study on Associated Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa Cosentino

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The present study aimed to examine family accommodation in relatives of obsessive-compulsive disease (OCD patients. Accommodation was assessed in a sample of 31 relatives of OCD patients by means of the Family Accommodation Scale. Other variables measured as predictors of accommodation were the tendency of a family member to feel guilty, sensitivity to guilt, anxiety sensitivity and the prevalence of a passive communication style. Accommodation was found to be rather widespread in the family members who took part in our study, and they tended to show more accommodation the greater their sensitivity to guilt and the stable tendency to experience this emotion as well as anxiety sensitivity and a passive communication style. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that, among the variables considered, the family member’s sensitivity to guilt is the only factor which can predict accommodation with regard to the patient’s demands for involvement. On the other hand, the small number of family members in the sample and the lack of clinical data on patients (such as the severity, typology and duration of their obsessive-compulsive disorder pose limits to the generalizability of the results and point to the need for further research.

Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Nicolle

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ∼ 16–30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ∼ 20–30- and ∼ 50–90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice–temperature positive feedback.

A mid- to far-infrared variability study of the intermediate Seyfert galaxy, Mk 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clement, R.; Sembay, S.; Coe, M.J.; Hanson, C.G.

1988-01-01

A mid- to far-infrared (MFIR) variability study of the intermediate Seyfert galaxy, Mk 6, is presented using data from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS). We have analysed 25 observations of this source covering a period of about 1 month. Within the expected errors, the source shows no evidence for variability and this may be an indication that there is a strong contribution to the MFIR emission from thermal re-radiation by dust. This interpretation is consistent with previous studies which suggest that the bulk of the far-infrared (30 -100 μm) emission in Seyfert galaxies originates from cool (35 - 75 K) dust associated with star formation regions in the surrounding envelope of the active nucleus. The lack of variability at 12 and 25 μm can also be readily explained by dust emission. However, in this case, the dust temperatures required to produce emission at these wavelengths makes the narrow-line region a more feasible location for the dust grains. (author)

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

Science.gov (United States)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K C Gouda

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

Variable selection in multivariate calibration based on clustering of variable concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrokhnia, Maryam; Karimi, Sadegh

2016-01-01

Recently we have proposed a new variable selection algorithm, based on clustering of variable concept (CLoVA) in classification problem. With the same idea, this new concept has been applied to a regression problem and then the obtained results have been compared with conventional variable selection strategies for PLS. The basic idea behind the clustering of variable is that, the instrument channels are clustered into different clusters via clustering algorithms. Then, the spectral data of each cluster are subjected to PLS regression. Different real data sets (Cargill corn, Biscuit dough, ACE QSAR, Soy, and Tablet) have been used to evaluate the influence of the clustering of variables on the prediction performances of PLS. Almost in the all cases, the statistical parameter especially in prediction error shows the superiority of CLoVA-PLS respect to other variable selection strategies. Finally the synergy clustering of variable (sCLoVA-PLS), which is used the combination of cluster, has been proposed as an efficient and modification of CLoVA algorithm. The obtained statistical parameter indicates that variable clustering can split useful part from redundant ones, and then based on informative cluster; stable model can be reached. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying

Continuous performance task in ADHD: Is reaction time variability a key measure?

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Florence; Pipingas, Andrew; Harris, Elizabeth V; Farrow, Maree; Silberstein, Richard B

2018-01-01

To compare the use of the Continuous Performance Task (CPT) reaction time variability (intraindividual variability or standard deviation of reaction time), as a measure of vigilance in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and stimulant medication response, utilizing a simple CPT X-task vs an A-X-task. Comparative analyses of two separate X-task vs A-X-task data sets, and subgroup analyses of performance on and off medication were conducted. The CPT X-task reaction time variability had a direct relationship to ADHD clinician severity ratings, unlike the CPT A-X-task. Variability in X-task performance was reduced by medication compared with the children's unmedicated performance, but this effect did not reach significance. When the coefficient of variation was applied, severity measures and medication response were significant for the X-task, but not for the A-X-task. The CPT-X-task is a useful clinical screening test for ADHD and medication response. In particular, reaction time variability is related to default mode interference. The A-X-task is less useful in this regard.

Satisfacción vital y su relación con otras variables psicosociales en población española residente en Alemania (Life satisfaction and its connection with other psycho-social variables in Spanish residents in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Macarena Vallejo-Martín

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This study analysed the psychosocial variables related to life satisfaction in a population of Spanish residents in Germany. The psychosocial variables were as follows: social support, self-esteem, job satisfaction, and attachment to and identification with the place of residence. Sociodemographic factors were also considered: job position, level of ability in the German language, monthly income, and perceived social class. The sample comprised 206 participants. The results showed that the participants had medium or medium-high scores on all the psychosocial variables and that there were significant correlations between them.Regarding the sociodemographic factors, although no significant association was found between life satisfaction and having a job, significant associations were found between life satisfaction and the other factors. Of these factors, perceived social class had the biggest effect. The results also showed that intrinsic job satisfaction, perceived social class, attachment to the place of residence, and self-esteem predicted life satisfaction (explaining 55.5% of variance. These results are in contrast with other studies on life satisfaction in immigrant populations.

Prediction of university student’s addictability based on some demographic variables, academic procrastination, and interpersonal variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ali Tavakoli

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to predict addictability among the students, based on demographic variables, academic procrastination, and interpersonal variables, and also to study the prevalence of addictability among these students. Method: The participants were 500 students (260 females, 240 males selected through a stratified random sampling among the students in Islamic Azad University Branch Abadan. The participants were assessed through Individual specification inventory, addiction potential scale and Aitken procrastination Inventory. Findings: The findings showed %23/6 of students’ readiness for addiction. Men showed higher addictability than women, but age wasn’t an issue. Also variables such as economic status, age, major, and academic procrastination predicted %13, and among interpersonal variables, the variables of having friends who use drugs and dissociated family predicted %13/2 of the variance in addictability. Conclusion: This study contains applied implications for addiction prevention.

Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

hmF2 variability over Havana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazo, B.; Alazo, K.; Rodriguez, M.; Calzadilla, A.

2003-01-01

The hmF2 variability over Havana station (Geo. Latitude 23 deg. N, Geo Longitude 278 deg. E; Dip 54.6 deg. N; Modip: 44.8 deg. N) is presented. In this study different solar and seasonal conditions are considered. The results show that, in general, standard deviation of hmF2 is quite irregular and reaches its values at nighttimes hours. Lower and upper quartiles variability has a similar behaviour to IQ variability, showing its higher values at nighttimes too. (author)

Transcription of the var genes from a freshly-obtained field isolate of Plasmodium falciparum shows more variable switching patterns than long laboratory-adapted isolates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Run; Zhang, Dongmei; Chen, Biaobang; Zhu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Yilong; Wang, Shengyue; Pan, Weiqing

2015-02-07

Antigenic variation in Plasmodium falciparum involves switching among multicopy var gene family and is responsible for immune evasion and the maintenance of chronic infections. Current understanding of var gene expression and switching patterns comes from experiments conducted on long laboratory-adapted strains, with little known about their wild counterparts. Genome sequencing was used to obtain 50 var genes from a parasite isolated from the China-Myanmar border. Four clones with different dominant var genes were cultured in vitro in replicates for 50 generations. Transcription of the individual var gene was detected by real-time PCR and then the switching process was analysed. The expression of multicopy var genes is mutually exclusive in clones of a wild P. falciparum isolate. The activation of distinct primary dominant var genes leads to different and favoured switching patterns in the four clones. The on/off rates of individual var genes are variable and the choice of subsequent dominant var genes are random, which results in the different switching patterns among replicates of each clonal wild P. falciparum isolate with near identical initial transcription profiles. This study suggests that the switching patterns of var genes are abundant, which consist of both conserved and random parts.

Variability and molecular typing of the woody-tree infecting prunus necrotic ringspot ilarvirus.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasková, D; Petrzik, K; Karesová, R

2000-01-01

The 3'-part of the movement protein gene, the intergenic region and the complete coat protein gene of sixteen isolates of Prunus necrotic ringspot virus (PNRSV) from five different host species from the Czech Republic were sequenced in order to search for the bases of extensive variability of viroses caused by this pathogen. According to phylogenetic analyses all the 46 isolates sequenced to date split into three main groups, which correlated to a certain extend with their geographic origin. Modelled serological properties showed that all the new isolates belong to one serotype.

The Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyiand the environmental macro-scale variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Espino

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses information on various macro environmental variables available since 1876 for the Southeast Pacific and more recent data on Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi (Nichols, 1920 landings and biomass in the Peruvian sea, relating them to probable areas of water masses equivalent to Cold Coastal Waters (CCW and Subtropical Surface Waters (SSW. It is concluded that the index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO presents expressions of variability that are consistent with those found for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI and that the detected changes in biomass of Jack mackerel T. murphyiin the Peruvian sea reflect changes in the availability of the fish stock associated with secular (SOI and decadal (PDO variability patterns. These fluctuations in stock availability impact fisheries in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile, which show significant variations in their landings and would have given a biased picture of the state of abundance, leading to wrong diagnoses of the real situation of the exploited stocks. These patterns of variability would also affect the appearance of El Niño, making them start in the southern hemisphere autumn or spring depending on whether the current PDO is positive or negative. Periods of high (1876 – 1925 and 1976 – 2012 and low (1926 – 1975 variability are also identified in relation to the Euclidean distance of the variances of the SOI; and in relation to the PDO a distinction is made between warm (1925 – 1944 and 1975 – 1994, cold (1945 – 1974 and tempered or interface periods (1895 – 1924 and 1995 – 2012, the latter being explained by the interaction between periods of high variability.

Showing/Sharing: Analysing Visual Communication from a Praxeological Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Schreiber

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This contribution proposes a methodological framework for empirical research into visual practices on social media. The framework identifies practices, pictures and platforms as relevant dimensions of analysis. It is mainly developed within, and is compatible with qualitative, interpretive approaches which focus on visual communication as part of everyday personal communicative practices. Two screenshots from Instagram and Facebook are introduced as empirical examples to investigate collaborative practices of meaning-making relating to pictures on social media. While social media seems to augment reflexive, processual practices of negotiating identities, visual media, in particular, amps up aesthetic, ambivalent and embodied dimensions within these practices.

[Methods, challenges and opportunities for big data analyses of microbiome].

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, Hua-Fang; Zhou, Hong-Wei

2015-07-01

Microbiome is a novel research field related with a variety of chronic inflamatory diseases. Technically, there are two major approaches to analysis of microbiome: metataxonome by sequencing the 16S rRNA variable tags, and metagenome by shot-gun sequencing of the total microbial (mainly bacterial) genome mixture. The 16S rRNA sequencing analyses pipeline includes sequence quality control, diversity analyses, taxonomy and statistics; metagenome analyses further includes gene annotation and functional analyses. With the development of the sequencing techniques, the cost of sequencing will decrease, and big data analyses will become the central task. Data standardization, accumulation, modeling and disease prediction are crucial for future exploit of these data. Meanwhile, the information property in these data, and the functional verification with culture-dependent and culture-independent experiments remain the focus in future research. Studies of human microbiome will bring a better understanding of the relations between the human body and the microbiome, especially in the context of disease diagnosis and therapy, which promise rich research opportunities.

Validation of endogenous normalizing genes for expression analyses in adult human testis and germ cell neoplasms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svingen, T; Jørgensen, Anne; Rajpert-De Meyts, E

2014-01-01

to define suitable normalizing genes for specific cells and tissues. Here, we report on the performance of a panel of nine commonly employed normalizing genes in adult human testis and testicular pathologies. Our analyses revealed significant variability in transcript abundance for commonly used normalizers......, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate normalizing genes as comparative measurements can yield variable results when different normalizing genes are employed. Based on our results, we recommend using RPS20, RPS29 or SRSF4 when analysing relative gene expression levels in human testis...... and associated testicular pathologies. OCT4 and SALL4 can be used with caution as second-tier normalizers when determining changes in gene expression in germ cells and germ cell tumour components, but the relative transcript abundance appears variable between different germ cell tumour types. We further...

Energy saving analyses on the reconstruction project in district heating system with distributed variable speed pumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng, Xianjie; Lin, Duanmu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The mathematical model of economic frictional factor based on DVFSP DHS is established. • Influence factors of economic frictional factor are analyzed. • Energy saving in a DVFSP district heating system is presented and analyzed. - Abstract: Optimization of the district heating (DH) piping network is of vital importance to the economics of the whole DH system. The application of distributed variable frequency speed pump (DVFSP) in the district heating network has been considered as a technology improvement that has a potential in saving energy compared to the conventional central circulating pump (CCCP) district heating system (DHS). Economic frictional factor is a common design parameter used in DH pipe network design. In this paper, the mathematical model of economic frictional factor based on DVFSP DHS is established, and influence factors are analyzed, providing a reference for engineering designs for the system. According to the analysis results, it is studied that the energy efficiency in the DH system with the DVFSP is compared with the one in the DH system with conventional central circulating pump (CCCP) using a case based on a district heating network in Dalian, China. The results of the study on the case show that the average electrical energy saved is 49.41% of the one saved by the DH system with conventional central circulating pump in the primary network.

Preanalytical Variables Affecting the Integrity of Human Biospecimens in Biobanking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ellervik, Christina; Vaught, Jim

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Most errors in a clinical chemistry laboratory are due to preanalytical errors. Preanalytical variability of biospecimens can have significant effects on downstream analyses, and controlling such variables is therefore fundamental for the future use of biospecimens in personalized...... medicine for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. CONTENT: The focus of this review is to examine the preanalytical variables that affect human biospecimen integrity in biobanking, with a special focus on blood, saliva, and urine. Cost efficiency is discussed in relation to these issues. SUMMARY: The quality...

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

Science.gov (United States)

Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

2018-03-01

Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

Air pollution forecast in cities by an air pollution index highly correlated with meteorological variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cogliani, E.

2001-01-01

There are many different air pollution indexes which represent the global urban air pollution situation. The daily index studied here is also highly correlated with meteorological variables and this index is capable of identifying those variables that significantly affect the air pollution. The index is connected with attention levels of NO 2 , CO and O 3 concentrations. The attention levels are fixed by a law proposed by the Italian Ministries of Health and Environment. The relation of that index with some meteorological variables is analysed by the linear multiple partial correlation statistical method. Florence, Milan and Vicence were selected to show the correlation among the air pollution index and the daily thermic excursion, the previous day's air pollution index and the wind speed. During the January-March period the correlation coefficient reaches 0.85 at Milan. The deterministic methods of forecasting air pollution concentrations show very high evaluation errors and are applied on limited areas around the observation stations, as opposed to the whole urban areas. The global air pollution, instead of the concentrations at specific observation stations, allows the evaluation of the level of the sanitary risk regarding the whole urban population. (Author)

(Super Variable Costing-Throughput Costing)

OpenAIRE

Çakıcı, Cemal

2006-01-01

(Super Variable Costing-Throughput Costing) The aim of this study is to explain the super-variable costing method which is a new subject in cost and management accounting and to show it’s working practicly.Shortly, super-variable costing can be defined as a costing method which is use only direct material costs in calculate of product costs and treats all costs except these (direct labor and overhead) as periad costs or operating costs.By using super-variable costing method, product costs ar...

Statistical Analyses of Scatterplots to Identify Important Factors in Large-Scale Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Helton, J.C.

1999-04-01

The robustness of procedures for identifying patterns in scatterplots generated in Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses is investigated. These procedures are based on attempts to detect increasingly complex patterns in the scatterplots under consideration and involve the identification of (1) linear relationships with correlation coefficients, (2) monotonic relationships with rank correlation coefficients, (3) trends in central tendency as defined by means, medians and the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, (4) trends in variability as defined by variances and interquartile ranges, and (5) deviations from randomness as defined by the chi-square statistic. The following two topics related to the robustness of these procedures are considered for a sequence of example analyses with a large model for two-phase fluid flow: the presence of Type I and Type II errors, and the stability of results obtained with independent Latin hypercube samples. Observations from analysis include: (1) Type I errors are unavoidable, (2) Type II errors can occur when inappropriate analysis procedures are used, (3) physical explanations should always be sought for why statistical procedures identify variables as being important, and (4) the identification of important variables tends to be stable for independent Latin hypercube samples.

A novel methodology improves reservoir characterization models using geologic fuzzy variables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soto B, Rodolfo [DIGITOIL, Maracaibo (Venezuela); Soto O, David A. [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

2004-07-01

One of the research projects carried out in Cusiana field to explain its rapid decline during the last years was to get better permeability models. The reservoir of this field has a complex layered system that it is not easy to model using conventional methods. The new technique included the development of porosity and permeability maps from cored wells following the same trend of the sand depositions for each facie or layer according to the sedimentary facie and the depositional system models. Then, we used fuzzy logic to reproduce those maps in three dimensions as geologic fuzzy variables. After multivariate statistical and factor analyses, we found independence and a good correlation coefficient between the geologic fuzzy variables and core permeability and porosity. This means, the geologic fuzzy variable could explain the fabric, the grain size and the pore geometry of the reservoir rock trough the field. Finally, we developed a neural network permeability model using porosity, gamma ray and the geologic fuzzy variable as input variables. This model has a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.873 and average absolute error of 33% compared with the actual model with a correlation coefficient of 0.511 and absolute error greater than 250%. We tested different methodologies, but this new one showed dramatically be a promiser way to get better permeability models. The use of the models have had a high impact in the explanation of well performance and workovers, and reservoir simulation models. (author)

Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

2018-02-01

In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

Multi-Scale Carbon Isotopic Analyses Show Allende Nanodiamonds are Mostly Solar with Some PreSolar

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, J. B.; Isheim, D.; Floss, C.; Gyngard, F.; Seidman, D. N.

2017-07-01

NanoSIMS and atom-probe experiments on different-sized aggregates of meteoritic nanodiamonds show mostly normal C isotopes, with a fraction of 13C-enriched material. The best interpretation is a combination of solar system and supernova formation.

Heritability of Intraindividual Mean and Variability of Positive and Negative Affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yao; Plomin, Robert; von Stumm, Sophie

2016-12-01

Positive affect (e.g., attentiveness) and negative affect (e.g., upset) fluctuate over time. We examined genetic influences on interindividual differences in the day-to-day variability of affect (i.e., ups and downs) and in average affect over the duration of a month. Once a day, 17-year-old twins in the United Kingdom ( N = 447) rated their positive and negative affect online. The mean and standard deviation of each individual's daily ratings across the month were used as the measures of that individual's average affect and variability of affect. Analyses revealed that the average of negative affect was significantly heritable (.53), but the average of positive affect was not; instead, the latter showed significant shared environmental influences (.42). Fluctuations across the month were significantly heritable for both negative affect (.54) and positive affect (.34). The findings support the two-factor theory of affect, which posits that positive affect is more situational and negative affect is more dispositional.

Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gudmundson, Sara; Eklöf, Anna; Wennergren, Uno

2015-08-07

How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species-species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment. © 2015 The Author(s).

Security bound of continuous-variable quantum key distribution with noisy coherent states and channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Yong; Yang Jian; Guo Hong

2009-01-01

Security of a continuous-variable quantum key distribution protocol based on noisy coherent states and channel is analysed. Assuming that the noise of coherent states is induced by Fred, a neutral party relative to others, we prove that the prepare-and-measurement scheme (P and M) and entanglement-based scheme (E-B) are equivalent. Then, we show that this protocol is secure against Gaussian collective attacks even if the channel is lossy and noisy, and, further, a lower bound to the secure key rate is derived.

High-frequency paleoclimatic variability: a spectral analysis of the Vostok ice-core isotopic record

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yiou, P.; Genthon, C.; Jouzel, J.; Le Treut, H.; Lorius, C.; Ghil, M.; Korotkevich, Y.S.

1988-01-01

This paper uses a recently analysed isotopic record from an ice core drilled at the Soviet Antartic Station VOSTOK, representing a total time span of about 160,000 years. Results obtained show the existence of a significative climatic variability at the time scale of 10,000 years and below. The many spectral peaks appear to be approximate linear combination of a little number among them, a clear indication of the non linear nature of climate fluctuations at these ''short'' time scales.

Security bound of continuous-variable quantum key distribution with noisy coherent states and channel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen Yong; Yang Jian; Guo Hong, E-mail: hongguo@pku.edu.c [CREAM Group, State Key Laboratory of Advanced Optical Communication Systems and Networks (Peking University) and Institute of Quantum Electronics, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

2009-12-14

Security of a continuous-variable quantum key distribution protocol based on noisy coherent states and channel is analysed. Assuming that the noise of coherent states is induced by Fred, a neutral party relative to others, we prove that the prepare-and-measurement scheme (P and M) and entanglement-based scheme (E-B) are equivalent. Then, we show that this protocol is secure against Gaussian collective attacks even if the channel is lossy and noisy, and, further, a lower bound to the secure key rate is derived.

Comparison of the Effects of Environmental Parameters on the Growth Variability of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Coupled with Strain Sources and Genotypes Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bingxuan; Liu, Haiquan; Pan, Yingjie; Xie, Jing; Zhao, Yong

2016-01-01

Microbial growth variability plays an important role on food safety risk assessment. In this study, the growth kinetic characteristics corresponding to maximum specific growth rate (μmax) of 50 V. parahaemolyticus isolates from different sources and genotypes were evaluated at different temperatures (10, 20, 30, and 37°C) and salinity (0.5, 3, 5, 7, and 9%) using the automated turbidimetric system Bioscreen C. The results demonstrated that strain growth variability increased as the growth conditions became more stressful both in terms of temperature and salinity. The coefficient of variation (CV) of μmax for temperature was larger than that for salinity, indicating that the impact of temperature on strain growth variability was greater than that of salinity. The strains isolated from freshwater aquatic products had more conspicuous growth variations than those from seawater. Moreover, the strains with tlh (+) /tdh (+) /trh (-) exhibited higher growth variability than tlh (+) /tdh (-) /trh (-) or tlh (+) /tdh (-) /trh (+), revealing that gene heterogeneity might have possible relations with the growth variability. This research illustrates that the growth environments, strain sources as well as genotypes have impacts on strain growth variability of V. parahaemolyticus, which can be helpful for incorporating strain variability in predictive microbiology and microbial risk assessment.

Lead Time to Appointment and No-Show Rates for New and Follow-up Patients in an Ambulatory Clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Drewek, Rupali; Mirea, Lucia; Adelson, P David

High rates of no-shows in outpatient clinics are problematic for revenue and for quality of patient care. Longer lead time to appointment has variably been implicated as a risk factor for no-shows, but the evidence within pediatric clinics is inconclusive. The goal of this study was to estimate no-show rates and test for association between appointment lead time and no-show rates for new and follow-up patients. Analyses included 534 new and 1920 follow-up patients from pulmonology and gastroenterology clinics at a freestanding children's hospital. The overall rate of no-shows was lower for visits scheduled within 0 to 30 days compared with 30 days or more (23% compared with 47%, P < .0001). Patient type significantly modified the association of appointment lead time; the rate of no-shows was higher (30%) among new patients compared with (21%) follow-up patients with appointments scheduled within 30 days (P = .004). For appointments scheduled 30 or more days' lead time, no-show rates were statistically similar for new patients (46%) and follow-up patients (0.48%). Time to appointment is a risk factor associated with no-shows, and further study is needed to identify and implement effective approaches to reduce appointment lead time, especially for new patients in pediatric subspecialties.

Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Meteorological Variability: An AGCM Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mahanama, S. P.; Koster, R. D.; Liu, P.

2006-05-01

Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies deep in the soil. The deep soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory -- the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months -- and thus deep soil temperature may contribute to the low frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses two long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of deep soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of AMIP-type simulations, simulations in which the deep soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the deep soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled -- at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of deep soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. By comparing the variability of various atmospheric quantities as generated in the two experiments, we isolate the contribution of interactive deep soil temperature to that variability. The results show that interactive deep soil temperature contributes significantly to surface temperature variability. Interactive deep soil temperature, however, reduces the variability of the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation), largely because it allows for a negative feedback between evaporation and temperature.

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Watson

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Variable sensory perception in autism.

Science.gov (United States)

Haigh, Sarah M

2018-03-01

Autism is associated with sensory and cognitive abnormalities. Individuals with autism generally show normal or superior early sensory processing abilities compared to healthy controls, but deficits in complex sensory processing. In the current opinion paper, it will be argued that sensory abnormalities impact cognition by limiting the amount of signal that can be used to interpret and interact with environment. There is a growing body of literature showing that individuals with autism exhibit greater trial-to-trial variability in behavioural and cortical sensory responses. If multiple sensory signals that are highly variable are added together to process more complex sensory stimuli, then this might destabilise later perception and impair cognition. Methods to improve sensory processing have shown improvements in more general cognition. Studies that specifically investigate differences in sensory trial-to-trial variability in autism, and the potential changes in variability before and after treatment, could ascertain if trial-to-trial variability is a good mechanism to target for treatment in autism. © 2017 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heuristic techniques for the analysis of variability as a dynamic aspect of change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Dijk, M.W.G.; Van Geert, P.

Due to the influence of dynamic systems and microgenetic perspectives, variability is nowadays often seen as an important phenomenon that helps us understand the underlying mechanisms of development. This paper aims at demonstrating several simple techniques that can be used to analyse variability

Variability Bugs in Highly Configurable Systems: A Qualitative Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abal, Iago; Melo, Jean; Stanciulescu, Stefan

2018-01-01

Variability-sensitive verification pursues effective analysis of the exponentially many variants in number of features of a program family. Several variability-aware techniques have been proposed, but researchers still lack examples of concrete bugs induced by variability, occurring in real large......-scale systems. A collection of real world bugs is needed to evaluate tool implementations of variability-sensitive analyses by testing them on real bugs. We present a qualitative study of 98 diverse variability bugs collected from bug-fixing commits in the Apache, BusyBox, Linux kernel and Marlin repositories....... We analyze each of the bugs, and record the results in a database. For each bug, we create a self-contained simplified C99 version and a simplified patch, in order to help researchers who are not experts on these subject studies to understand them, so that they can use it for evaluation...

Achieving reasonable conservatism in nuclear safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, Kamiar

2015-01-01

In the absence of methods that explicitly account for uncertainties, seeking reasonable conservatism in nuclear safety analyses can quickly lead to extreme conservatism. The rate of divergence to extreme conservatism is often beyond the expert analysts’ intuitive feeling, but can be demonstrated mathematically. Too much conservatism in addressing the safety of nuclear facilities is not beneficial to society. Using certain properties of lognormal distributions for representation of input parameter uncertainties, example calculations for the risk and consequence of a fictitious facility accident scenario are presented. Results show that there are large differences between the calculated 95th percentiles and the extreme bounding values derived from using all input variables at their upper-bound estimates. Showing the relationship of the mean values to the key parameters of the output distributions, the paper concludes that the mean is the ideal candidate for representation of the value of an uncertain parameter. The mean value is proposed as the metric that is consistent with the concept of reasonable conservatism in nuclear safety analysis, because its value increases towards higher percentiles of the underlying positively skewed distribution with increasing levels of uncertainty. Insensitivity of the results to the actual underlying distributions is briefly demonstrated. - Highlights: • Multiple conservative assumptions can quickly diverge into extreme conservatism. • Mathematics and attractive properties provide basis for wide use of lognormal distribution. • Mean values are ideal candidates for representation of parameter uncertainties. • Mean values are proposed as reasonably conservative estimates of parameter uncertainties

Wind and load variability in the Nordic countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holttinen, H.; Rissanen, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland); Larsen, X. [Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, Lyngby (Denmark); Loevholm, A. L. [Kjeller Vindteknikk (Norway)

2013-04-15

This publication analysed the variability of wind production and load in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the Nordic region as a whole, based on real data measured from large-scale wind power during 2009-2011. The Nordic-wide wind power time series was scaled up such that Sweden had same amount of wind power production than Denmark, and Finland and Norway only 50% of the wind power production in Denmark. Wind power production in Denmark and Sweden is somewhat correlated (coefficient 0.7) but less correlation is found between the other countries. The variations from one hour to the next are only weakly correlated between all countries, even between Denmark and Sweden. Largest variations occur when the production is approximately 30-70% of installed capacity and variability is low during periods of light winds. The variability in shorter time scales was less than the hourly variations. During the three years analysed in this publication there were few storm incidents and they did not produce dramatic wind power ramps in the Nordic region. Wind and load variations are not correlated between the countries, which is beneficial from the viewpoint of wind integration. The smoothing effect is shown as reduction of variability from a single country to Nordic-wide wind power. The impact of wind power on the variability that the system experiences is evaluated by analysing the variability of net load with different wind power penetration levels. The Nordic-wide wind power production increases the highest hourly ramps by 2.4% (up) and -3.6% (down) of installed wind power capacity when there is 20% wind power penetration and by 2.7% (up) and -4.7% (down) for 30% wind penetration. These results assess the impacts of variability only. The next step will be assessing the uncertainty from forecast errors. The timing of ramp events, and occurrence of high-wind and low-load are studied. With current wind penetration, low production levels (2-5% of installed wind power) can occur in a

Weight restrictions on geography variables in the DEA benchmarking model for Norwegian electricity distribution companies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoerndal, Endre; Bjoerndal, Mette; Camanho, Ana

2008-07-01

The DEA model for the distribution networks is designed to take into account the diverse operating conditions of the companies through so-called 'geography' variables. Our analyses show that companies with difficult operating conditions tend to be rewarded with relatively high efficiency scores, and this is the reason for introducing weight restrictions. We discuss the relative price restrictions suggested for geography and high voltage variables by NVE (2008), and we compare these to an alternative approach by which the total (virtual) weight of the geography variables is restricted. The main difference between the two approaches is that the former tends to affect more companies, but to a lesser extent, than the latter. We also discuss how to set the restriction limits. Since the virtual restrictions are at a more aggregated level than the relative ones, it may be easier to establish the limits with this approach. Finally, we discuss implementation issues, and give a short overview of available software. (Author). 18 refs., figs

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

2011-01-01

Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: → The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. → Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. → We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. → The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. → Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

2015-04-01

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

Short-term meso-scale variability of mesozooplankton communities in a coastal upwelling system (NW Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Roura, Álvaro; Álvarez-Salgado, Xosé A.; González, Ángel F.; Gregori, María; Rosón, Gabriel; Guerra, Ángel

2013-02-01

The short-term, meso-scale variability of the mesozooplankton community present in the coastal upwelling system of the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain) has been analysed. Three well-defined communities were identified: coastal, frontal and oceanic, according to their holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, richness, and total abundance. These communities changed from summer to autumn due to a shift from downwelling to upwelling-favourable conditions coupled with taxa dependent changes in life strategies. Relationships between the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton and the resemblance matrices of meteorologic, hydrographic and community-derived biotic variables were determined with distance-based linear models (DistLM, 18 variables), showing an increasing amount of explained variability of 6%, 16.1% and 54.5%, respectively. A simplified model revealed that the variability found in the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton was mainly described by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, the total abundance, the influence of lunar cycles, the upwelling index and the richness; altogether accounting for 64% of the total variability. The largest variability of the mesozooplankton resemblance matrix (39.6%) is accounted by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, a simple index that describes appropriately the coastal-ocean gradient. The communities described herein kept their integrity in the studied upwelling and downwelling episodes in spite of the highly advective environment off the Ría de Vigo, presumably due to behavioural changes in the vertical position of the zooplankton.

Relation between environmental variables and the fish community structure in streams of das Mortes and Xingu river basins – MT, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priscylla Rodrigues Matos

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Environmental variables may determine and structure the composition of fish fauna. Studies comparing differences between physical and chemical variables of water between close river basins are few. This paper aimed to check which limnological variables are related to the distribution of fish species in two river basins. For this, 20 streams were sampled, divided between das Mortes and Xingu river basins. At each point one measured a total of 8 environmental variables. Fishes were collected through trawl. Total richness was 57 species, 29 of them from Xingu river basin, 35 from das Mortes river basin, and 7 species common to both river basins. The analyses showed that the streams in these two basins have distinct limnological and faunal features. The streams in Xingu river basin had lower pH values which may have been influenced by the high rates of organic decomposition. The streams of das Mortes river showed higher values of suspended matter and chlorophyll, probably due to higher degradation of streams and lower vegetation cover levels.

Latent vs. Observed Variables : Analysis of Irrigation Water Efficiency Using SEM and SUR

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, Jianjun; Folmer, Henk

In this paper we compare conceptualising single factor technical and allocative efficiency as indicators of a single latent variable, or as separate observed variables. In the former case, the impacts on both efficiency types are analysed by means of structural equationmodeling (SEM), in the latter

Quantification of variables that affect energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warren, C.S.

1993-01-01

Facility energy consumption is the summation of a number of contributory factors, caused by equipment that uses energy in response to demands placed by the user and according to its particular design. While energy efficiency improvements usually concentrate on individual parts or systems, overall energy consumption is analyzed by examining the use of specific fuels. Because independent variables effect the consumption of these fuels, accurate comparisons of a facility's energy consumption for time-measured periods must include these effects. In many cases, it is possible to determine and quantify the effects of one or more of the independent variables through a statistically valid regression analysis of the data. The regression model can be linear, or be dependent on other functions such as powers, time lead or lag, or exponential. The most common model is linear, but other dependencies are often encountered. Regression analyses are not difficult to accomplish, and are included as one of the tools in most spreadsheet software. The analyses provide the energy manager with a means to better understand the energy consumption of his/her facility

Instrumental variables estimation under a structural Cox model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Torben; Nørbo Sørensen, Ditte; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2017-01-01

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis is an increasingly popular tool for inferring the effect of an exposure on an outcome, as witnessed by the growing number of IV applications in epidemiology, for instance. The majority of IV analyses of time-to-event endpoints are, however, dominated by heurist...

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. C. Stephan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air–sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ∼ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature at the east coast fishing area off Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Nurul Ridani, S.; Mustapha, M. A.; Lihan, T.; Ku Kassim, K. Y.; Raja Bidin, R. H.

2015-09-01

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to study a time-series of the aqua MODIS data imageries in the exclusive economic zone of east coast off Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal and spatial characteristics were examined to determine the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from January 2003 to December 2011.The data were analysed from daily Level 1A (1km spatial resolution) to monthly composites Level 3 data using SeaDAS and ERDAS imagine software. Four modes was obtained from the analysis with the highest variance (7.9%) represented by mode 1 which explained the seasonal cycle. Mode 2 (5.11 % of total variance) showed positive and negative peak signal during March and April and in October and November with variability near the Kelantan and Pahang waters that indicated the inter monsoon. Mode 3 (3.8 % of variance) shows variability near the Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor waters to the open sea during July and August and in May and June representing the Southwest monsoon. Mode 4 (3.36 %) showed positive signal during November and December with strong signal near Pahang and Kelantan waters while weak signal was detected near Terengganu and Kelantan's open sea representing the Northeast monsoon. The SST variability was influenced by the monsoonal system which originated by the wind forcing condition that influences circulation in the study area.

A review of multivariate analyses in imaging genetics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingyu eLiu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Recent advances in neuroimaging technology and molecular genetics provide the unique opportunity to investigate genetic influence on the variation of brain attributes. Since the year 2000, when the initial publication on brain imaging and genetics was released, imaging genetics has been a rapidly growing research approach with increasing publications every year. Several reviews have been offered to the research community focusing on various study designs. In addition to study design, analytic tools and their proper implementation are also critical to the success of a study. In this review, we survey recent publications using data from neuroimaging and genetics, focusing on methods capturing multivariate effects accommodating the large number of variables from both imaging data and genetic data. We group the analyses of genetic or genomic data into either a prior driven or data driven approach, including gene-set enrichment analysis, multifactor dimensionality reduction, principal component analysis, independent component analysis (ICA, and clustering. For the analyses of imaging data, ICA and extensions of ICA are the most widely used multivariate methods. Given detailed reviews of multivariate analyses of imaging data available elsewhere, we provide a brief summary here that includes a recently proposed method known as independent vector analysis. Finally, we review methods focused on bridging the imaging and genetic data by establishing multivariate and multiple genotype-phenotype associations, including sparse partial least squares, sparse canonical correlation analysis, sparse reduced rank regression and parallel ICA. These methods are designed to extract latent variables from both genetic and imaging data, which become new genotypes and phenotypes, and the links between the new genotype-phenotype pairs are maximized using different cost functions. The relationship between these methods along with their assumptions, advantages, and

Analyses of containment structures with corrosion damage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cherry, J.L.

1997-01-01

Corrosion damage that has been found in a number of nuclear power plant containment structures can degrade the pressure capacity of the vessel. This has prompted concerns regarding the capacity of corroded containments to withstand accident loadings. To address these concerns, finite element analyses have been performed for a typical PWR Ice Condenser containment structure. Using ABAQUS, the pressure capacity was calculated for a typical vessel with no corrosion damage. Multiple analyses were then performed with the location of the corrosion and the amount of corrosion varied in each analysis. Using a strain-based failure criterion, a open-quotes lower boundclose quotes, open-quotes best estimateclose quotes, and open-quotes upper boundclose quotes failure level was predicted for each case. These limits were established by: determining the amount of variability that exists in material properties of typical containments, estimating the amount of uncertainty associated with the level of modeling detail and modeling assumptions, and estimating the effect of corrosion on the material properties

Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

2006-06-01

Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

Temporal and spatial variability of zooplankton on the Faroe shelf in spring 1997-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobsen, Sólvá; Gaard, Eilif; Larsen, Karin Margretha Húsgarð; Eliasen, Sólvá Káradóttir; Hátún, Hjálmar

2018-01-01

Zooplankton availability during spring and summer determines the growth and survival of first-feeding fish larvae, and thus impacts the recruitment to both fish prey species and commercial fish stocks. On the Faroe shelf, however, the relative importance of oceanic versus neritic zooplankton species has hitherto not been well understood. In this study, spatio-temporal variability in zooplankton community structure and size spectra on the Faroe shelf is investigated using observations from late April during the period 1997-2016. The main objective was to explore which environmental variables influence the zooplankton community structure in early spring. The zooplankton community in the permanently well mixed central shelf inside the tidal front consists of a mixture of neritic, cosmopolitan and oceanic species. In this region, redundancy analyses showed that chlorophyll concentration had a positive effect on abundance of neritic copepods and meroplankton as well as all zooplankton abundance variability of these species shows increased production around 2000 and 2008-2009. The highest zooplankton abundance, mainly consisting of Calanus finmarchicus, is however observed off-shore from the tidal front, especially on the western side of the Faroe Plateau. A shift in C. finmarchicus phenology occurred around 2007, resulting in earlier reproduction of this species, and this variability could not be explained by the employed regional environmental parameters. Our results indicate that the Faroe shelf biological production is more dependent on the local primary production and neritic zooplankton species than on the large oceanic C. finmarchicus stock.

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiviluoma, Juha [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Holttinen, Hannele [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Weir, David [Energy Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo Norway; Scharff, Richard [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Söder, Lennart [Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Menemenlis, Nickie [Institut de recherche Hydro-Québec, Montreal Canada; Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [DTU, Wind Energy, Roskilde Denmark; Danti Lopez, Irene [Electricity Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin Ireland; Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto California USA; Estanqueiro, Ana [LNEG, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Geologia, UESEO, Lisbon Spain; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio [Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Castilla-La Mancha University, Albacete Spain; Zhang, Qin [State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing China; Bai, Jianhua [State Grid Energy Research Institute Beijing, Beijing China; Wan, Yih-Huei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

Panel-based whole exome sequencing identifies novel mutations in microphthalmia and anophthalmia patients showing complex Mendelian inheritance patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Riera, Marina; Wert, Ana; Nieto, Isabel; Pomares, Esther

2017-11-01

Microphthalmia and anophthalmia (MA) are congenital eye abnormalities that show an extremely high clinical and genetic complexity. In this study, we evaluated the implementation of whole exome sequencing (WES) for the genetic analysis of MA patients. This approach was used to investigate three unrelated families in which previous single-gene analyses failed to identify the molecular cause. A total of 47 genes previously associated with nonsyndromic MA were included in our panel. WES was performed in one affected patient from each family using the AmpliSeq TM Exome technology and the Ion Proton TM platform. A novel heterozygous OTX2 missense mutation was identified in a patient showing bilateral anophthalmia who inherited the variant from a parent who was a carrier, but showed no sign of the condition. We also describe a new PAX6 missense variant in an autosomal-dominant pedigree affected by mild bilateral microphthalmia showing high intrafamiliar variability, with germline mosaicism determined to be the most plausible molecular cause of the disease. Finally, a heterozygous missense mutation in RBP4 was found to be responsible in an isolated case of bilateral complex microphthalmia. This study highlights that panel-based WES is a reliable and effective strategy for the genetic diagnosis of MA. Furthermore, using this technique, the mutational spectrum of these diseases was broadened, with novel variants identified in each of the OTX2, PAX6, and RBP4 genes. Moreover, we report new cases of reduced penetrance, mosaicism, and variable phenotypic expressivity associated with MA, further demonstrating the heterogeneity of such disorders. © 2017 The Authors. Molecular Genetics & Genomic Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A review of bioinformatic methods for forensic DNA analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yao-Yuan; Harbison, SallyAnn

2018-03-01

Short tandem repeats, single nucleotide polymorphisms, and whole mitochondrial analyses are three classes of markers which will play an important role in the future of forensic DNA typing. The arrival of massively parallel sequencing platforms in forensic science reveals new information such as insights into the complexity and variability of the markers that were previously unseen, along with amounts of data too immense for analyses by manual means. Along with the sequencing chemistries employed, bioinformatic methods are required to process and interpret this new and extensive data. As more is learnt about the use of these new technologies for forensic applications, development and standardization of efficient, favourable tools for each stage of data processing is being carried out, and faster, more accurate methods that improve on the original approaches have been developed. As forensic laboratories search for the optimal pipeline of tools, sequencer manufacturers have incorporated pipelines into sequencer software to make analyses convenient. This review explores the current state of bioinformatic methods and tools used for the analyses of forensic markers sequenced on the massively parallel sequencing (MPS) platforms currently most widely used. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Approximate analyses of inelastic effects in pipework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jobson, D.A.

1983-01-01

This presentation shows figures concerned with analyses of inelastic effects in pipework as follows: comparison of experimental and calculated simplified analyses results for free end rotation and for circumferential strain; interrupted stress relaxation; regenerated relaxation caused by reversed yield; buckling of straight pipe under combined bending and torsion; results of fatigues test of pipe bend

Continuous-variable quantum homomorphic signature

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ke; Shang, Tao; Liu, Jian-wei

2017-10-01

Quantum cryptography is believed to be unconditionally secure because its security is ensured by physical laws rather than computational complexity. According to spectrum characteristic, quantum information can be classified into two categories, namely discrete variables and continuous variables. Continuous-variable quantum protocols have gained much attention for their ability to transmit more information with lower cost. To verify the identities of different data sources in a quantum network, we propose a continuous-variable quantum homomorphic signature scheme. It is based on continuous-variable entanglement swapping and provides additive and subtractive homomorphism. Security analysis shows the proposed scheme is secure against replay, forgery and repudiation. Even under nonideal conditions, it supports effective verification within a certain verification threshold.

Predicting travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peer, S.; Koopmans, C.; Verhoef, E.T.

2010-01-01

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are not taken into account in many cost-benefit-analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules on how variability can be predicted, based on travel time data from Dutch highways.

Pitch link loads reduction of variable speed rotors by variable tuning frequency fluidlastic isolators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Dong

2015-10-01

Full Text Available To reduce the pitch link loads of variable speed rotors, variable tuning frequency fluidlastic isolators are proposed. This isolator utilizes the variation of centrifugal force due to the change of rotor speed to change the tuning port area ratio, which can change the tuning frequency of the isolator. A rotor model including the model of fluidlastic isolator is coupled with a fuselage model to predict the steady responses of the rotor system in forward flight. The aeroelastic analyses indicate that distinct performance improvement in pitch link load control can be achieved by the utilization of variable frequency isolators compared with the constant tuning frequency isolators. The 4/rev (per revolution pitch link load is observed to be reduced by 87.6% compared with the increase of 56.3% by the constant frequency isolator, when the rotor speed is reduced by 16.7%. The isolation ability at different rotor speeds in different flight states is investigated. To achieve overall load reduction within the whole range of rotor speed, the strategy of the variation of tuning frequency is adjusted. The results indicate that the 4/rev pitch link load within the whole rotor speed range is decreased.

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minji Seo

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

Variability of Emaravirus Species Associated with Sterility Mosaic Disease of Pigeonpea in India Provides Evidence of Segment Reassortment

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, Basavaprabhu L.; Dangwal, Meenakshi; Mishra, Ritesh

2017-01-01

Sterility mosaic disease (SMD) of pigeonpea is a serious constraint for cultivation of pigeonpea in India and other South Asian countries. SMD of pigeonpea is associated with two distinct emaraviruses, Pigeonpea sterility mosaic virus 1 (PPSMV-1) and Pigeonpea sterility mosaic virus 2 (PPSMV-2), with genomes consisting of five and six negative-sense RNA segments, respectively. The recently published genome sequences of both PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2 are from a single location, Patancheru from the state of Telangana in India. However, here we present the first report of sequence variability among 23 isolates of PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2, collected from ten locations representing six states of India. Both PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2 are shown to be present across India and to exhibit considerable sequence variability. Variability of RNA3 sequences was higher than the RNA4 sequences for both PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2. Additionally, the sixth RNA segment (RNA6), previously reported to be associated with only PPSMV-2, is also associated with isolates of PPSMV-1. Multiplex reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) analyses show that PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2 frequently occur as mixed infections. Further sequence analyses indicated the presence of reassortment of RNA4 between isolates of PPSMV-1 and PPSMV-2. PMID:28696402

Physical attraction to reliable, low variability nervous systems: Reaction time variability predicts attractiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Emily E; Saville, Christopher W N; Ward, Robert; Ramsey, Richard

2017-01-01

The human face cues a range of important fitness information, which guides mate selection towards desirable others. Given humans' high investment in the central nervous system (CNS), cues to CNS function should be especially important in social selection. We tested if facial attractiveness preferences are sensitive to the reliability of human nervous system function. Several decades of research suggest an operational measure for CNS reliability is reaction time variability, which is measured by standard deviation of reaction times across trials. Across two experiments, we show that low reaction time variability is associated with facial attractiveness. Moreover, variability in performance made a unique contribution to attractiveness judgements above and beyond both physical health and sex-typicality judgements, which have previously been associated with perceptions of attractiveness. In a third experiment, we empirically estimated the distribution of attractiveness preferences expected by chance and show that the size and direction of our results in Experiments 1 and 2 are statistically unlikely without reference to reaction time variability. We conclude that an operating characteristic of the human nervous system, reliability of information processing, is signalled to others through facial appearance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anàlisi de classificació amb variable «criteri» a SPAD

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Angelina Sánchez Martí

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents the characteristics, procedure and utility of the technique of classification analysis with criterion variable in a large set of data, using mainly categorical variables. Classification analysis forms part of the techniques commonly known as data mining that analyse relationships or associations between variables. The paper describes step by step how to apply this statistical technique with the support of SPAD software, a statistical package for multivariate analysis, and provides an example of its application. The technique is drawn from the French school of statistics. Despite being little known, it is a very useful classification analysis for working with large amounts of data, a situation that is increasingly common in educational research, and more typical of the secondary analyses that are carried out in our field.

Meta-analyses of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Navarro-Mateu

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To conduct a meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms performed in PTSD cases. METHODS DATA SOURCES: Potential studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science databases (Web of Knowledge, WoK, PsychINFO, PsychArticles and HuGeNet (Human Genome Epidemiology Network up until December 2011. STUDY SELECTION: Published observational studies reporting genotype or allele frequencies of this genetic factor in PTSD cases and in non-PTSD controls were all considered eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers selected studies for possible inclusion and extracted data independently following a standardized protocol. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: A biallelic and a triallelic meta-analysis, including the total S and S' frequencies, the dominant (S+/LL and S'+/L'L' and the recessive model (SS/L+ and S'S'/L'+, was performed with a random-effect model to calculate the pooled OR and its corresponding 95% CI. Forest plots and Cochran's Q-Statistic and I(2 index were calculated to check for heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were carried out to analyze potential moderators. Publication bias and quality of reporting were also analyzed. RESULTS: 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, providing a total sample of 1874 patients with PTSD and 7785 controls in the biallelic meta-analyses and 627 and 3524, respectively, in the triallelic. None of the meta-analyses showed evidence of an association between 5-HTTLPR and PTSD but several characteristics (exposure to the same principal stressor for PTSD cases and controls, adjustment for potential confounding variables, blind assessment, study design, type of PTSD, ethnic distribution and Total Quality Score influenced the results in subgroup analyses and meta-regression. There was no evidence of potential publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence does not support a direct effect of 5-HTTLPR

Meta-analyses of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Escámez, Teresa; Koenen, Karestan C; Alonso, Jordi; Sánchez-Meca, Julio

2013-01-01

To conduct a meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms performed in PTSD cases. Potential studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science databases (Web of Knowledge, WoK), PsychINFO, PsychArticles and HuGeNet (Human Genome Epidemiology Network) up until December 2011. Published observational studies reporting genotype or allele frequencies of this genetic factor in PTSD cases and in non-PTSD controls were all considered eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. Two reviewers selected studies for possible inclusion and extracted data independently following a standardized protocol. A biallelic and a triallelic meta-analysis, including the total S and S' frequencies, the dominant (S+/LL and S'+/L'L') and the recessive model (SS/L+ and S'S'/L'+), was performed with a random-effect model to calculate the pooled OR and its corresponding 95% CI. Forest plots and Cochran's Q-Statistic and I(2) index were calculated to check for heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were carried out to analyze potential moderators. Publication bias and quality of reporting were also analyzed. 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, providing a total sample of 1874 patients with PTSD and 7785 controls in the biallelic meta-analyses and 627 and 3524, respectively, in the triallelic. None of the meta-analyses showed evidence of an association between 5-HTTLPR and PTSD but several characteristics (exposure to the same principal stressor for PTSD cases and controls, adjustment for potential confounding variables, blind assessment, study design, type of PTSD, ethnic distribution and Total Quality Score) influenced the results in subgroup analyses and meta-regression. There was no evidence of potential publication bias. Current evidence does not support a direct effect of 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms on PTSD. Further analyses of gene-environment interactions, epigenetic modulation and new studies with large samples

On Conducting Construct Validity Meta-Analyses for the Rorschach: A Reply to Tibon Czopp and Zeligman (2016).

Science.gov (United States)

Mihura, Joni L; Meyer, Gregory J; Dumitrascu, Nicolae; Bombel, George

2016-01-01

We respond to Tibon Czopp and Zeligman's (2016) critique of our systematic reviews and meta-analyses of 65 Rorschach Comprehensive System (CS) variables published in Psychological Bulletin (2013). The authors endorsed our supportive findings but critiqued the same methodology when used for the 13 unsupported variables. Unfortunately, their commentary was based on significant misunderstandings of our meta-analytic method and results, such as thinking we used introspectively assessed criteria in classifying levels of support and reporting only a subset of our externally assessed criteria. We systematically address their arguments that our construct label and criterion variable choices were inaccurate and, therefore, meta-analytic validity for these 13 CS variables was artificially low. For example, the authors created new construct labels for these variables that they called "the customary CS interpretation," but did not describe their methodology nor provide evidence that their labels would result in better validity than ours. They cite studies they believe we should have included; we explain how these studies did not fit our inclusion criteria and that including them would have actually reduced the relevant CS variables' meta-analytic validity. Ultimately, criticisms alone cannot change meta-analytic support from negative to positive; Tibon Czopp and Zeligman would need to conduct their own construct validity meta-analyses.

Heart rate and heart rate variability in dogs with different degrees of myxomatous mitral valve disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Caroline Elisabeth; Falk, Bo Torkel; Zois, Nora Elisabeth

2011-01-01

atrial area using color Doppler mapping) and no murmur, 2) CKCS with mild MR (20%50%) and no clinical signs of HF, 4) CKCS in HF (HF defined as left atrium to aortic root ratio (LA/Ao) >1.5, clinical signs of HF and furosemide responsiveness) and 5) non......-CKCS in HF. Dogs in HF were allowed HF therapy. Both HR and HRV were analysed over a 24-hour period, while HRV were also analysed over a 6-hour nightly period. Analyses of variance were performed with HR or HRV as response variables and the explanatory variables dog group and echocardiographic indices...

Automatic incrementalization of Prolog based static analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eichberg, Michael; Kahl, Matthias; Saha, Diptikalyan

2007-01-01

Modem development environments integrate various static analyses into the build process. Analyses that analyze the whole project whenever the project changes are impractical in this context. We present an approach to automatic incrementalization of analyses that are specified as tabled logic...... programs and evaluated using incremental tabled evaluation, a technique for efficiently updating memo tables in response to changes in facts and rules. The approach has been implemented and integrated into the Eclipse IDE. Our measurements show that this technique is effective for automatically...

Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.

2014-12-01

The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.

Nitrogen replenishment using variable rate application technique in a small hand-harvested pear orchard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vatsanidou, A.; Nanos, G.D.; Fountas, S.; Baras, J.; Castrignano, A.; Gemtos, T.A.

2017-07-01

Precision agriculture is a management approach for sustainable agriculture. It can be applied even in small fields. It aims to optimize inputs, improve profits, and reduce adverse environmental impacts. In this study, a series of measurements were conducted over three growing seasons to assess variability in a 0.55 ha pear orchard located in central Greece. Soil ECa was measured using EM38 sensor, while soil samples were taken from a grid 17 × 8 m and analysed for texture, pH, P, K, Mg, CaCO3, and organic matter content. Data analysis indicated that most of the nutrients were at sufficient levels. Soil and yield maps showed considerable variability while fruit quality presented small variations across the orchard. Yield fluctuations were observed, possibly due to climatic conditions. Prescription maps were developed for nitrogen variable rate application (VRA) for two years based on the replacement of the nutrients removed by the crop. VRA application resulted in 56% and 50% reduction of N fertiliser compared to uniform application.

Nitrogen replenishment using variable rate application technique in a small hand-harvested pear orchard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vatsanidou, A.; Nanos, G.D.; Fountas, S.; Baras, J.; Castrignano, A.; Gemtos, T.A.

2017-01-01

Precision agriculture is a management approach for sustainable agriculture. It can be applied even in small fields. It aims to optimize inputs, improve profits, and reduce adverse environmental impacts. In this study, a series of measurements were conducted over three growing seasons to assess variability in a 0.55 ha pear orchard located in central Greece. Soil ECa was measured using EM38 sensor, while soil samples were taken from a grid 17 × 8 m and analysed for texture, pH, P, K, Mg, CaCO3, and organic matter content. Data analysis indicated that most of the nutrients were at sufficient levels. Soil and yield maps showed considerable variability while fruit quality presented small variations across the orchard. Yield fluctuations were observed, possibly due to climatic conditions. Prescription maps were developed for nitrogen variable rate application (VRA) for two years based on the replacement of the nutrients removed by the crop. VRA application resulted in 56% and 50% reduction of N fertiliser compared to uniform application.

Nitrogen replenishment using variable rate application technique in a small hand-harvested pear orchard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Vatsanidou

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Precision agriculture is a management approach for sustainable agriculture. It can be applied even in small fields. It aims to optimize inputs, improve profits, and reduce adverse environmental impacts. In this study, a series of measurements were conducted over three growing seasons to assess variability in a 0.55 ha pear orchard located in central Greece. Soil ECa was measured using EM38 sensor, while soil samples were taken from a grid 17 × 8 m and analysed for texture, pH, P, K, Mg, CaCO3, and organic matter content. Data analysis indicated that most of the nutrients were at sufficient levels. Soil and yield maps showed considerable variability while fruit quality presented small variations across the orchard. Yield fluctuations were observed, possibly due to climatic conditions. Prescription maps were developed for nitrogen variable rate application (VRA for two years based on the replacement of the nutrients removed by the crop. VRA application resulted in 56% and 50% reduction of N fertiliser compared to uniform application.

Correlations between Sportsmen’s Morpho-Functional Measurements and Voice Acoustic Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rexhepi Agron M.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Since human voice characteristics are specific to each individual, numerous anthropological studies have been oriented to find significant relationships between voice and morpho-functional features. The goal of this study was to identify the correlation between seven morpho-functional variables and six voice acoustic parameters in sportsmen. Methods. Following the protocols of the International Biological Program, seven morpho-functional variables and six voice acoustic parameters have been measured in 88 male professional athletes from Kosovo, aged 17-35 years, during the period of April-October 2013. The statistical analysis was accomplished through the SPSS program, version 20. The obtained data were analysed through descriptive parameters and with Spearman’s method of correlation analysis. Results. Spearman’s method of correlation showed significant negative correlations (R = -0.215 to -0.613; p = 0.05 between three voice acoustic variables of the fundamental frequency of the voice sample (Mean, Minimum, and Maximum Pitch and six morpho-functional measures (Body Height, Body Weight, Margaria-Kalamen Power Test, Sargent Jump Test, Pull-up Test, and VO2max.abs. Conclusions. The significant correlations imply that the people with higher stature have longer vocal cords and a lower voice. These results encourage investigations on predicting sportsmen’s functional abilities on the basis of their voice acoustic parameters.

Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

2013-01-01

This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysing and Comparing Encodability Criteria

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Kirstin Peters

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Encodings or the proof of their absence are the main way to compare process calculi. To analyse the quality of encodings and to rule out trivial or meaningless encodings, they are augmented with quality criteria. There exists a bunch of different criteria and different variants of criteria in order to reason in different settings. This leads to incomparable results. Moreover it is not always clear whether the criteria used to obtain a result in a particular setting do indeed fit to this setting. We show how to formally reason about and compare encodability criteria by mapping them on requirements on a relation between source and target terms that is induced by the encoding function. In particular we analyse the common criteria full abstraction, operational correspondence, divergence reflection, success sensitiveness, and respect of barbs; e.g. we analyse the exact nature of the simulation relation (coupled simulation versus bisimulation that is induced by different variants of operational correspondence. This way we reduce the problem of analysing or comparing encodability criteria to the better understood problem of comparing relations on processes.

IRAS variables as galactic structure tracers - Classification of the bright variables

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, L. E.; Kleinmann, S. G.; Weinberg, M. D.

1993-01-01

The characteristics of the 'bright infrared variables' (BIRVs), a sample consisting of the 300 brightest stars in the IRAS Point Source Catalog with IRAS variability index VAR of 98 or greater, are investigated with the purpose of establishing which of IRAS variables are AGB stars (e.g., oxygen-rich Miras and carbon stars, as was assumed by Weinberg (1992)). Results of the analysis of optical, infrared, and microwave spectroscopy of these stars indicate that, out of 88 stars in the BIRV sample identified with cataloged variables, 86 can be classified as Miras. Results of a similar analysis performed for a color-selected sample of stars, using the color limits employed by Habing (1988) to select AGB stars, showed that, out of 52 percent of classified stars, 38 percent are non-AGB stars, including H II regions, planetary nebulae, supergiants, and young stellar objects, indicating that studies using color-selected samples are subject to misinterpretation.

Mid- to late-Holocene reservoir-age variability and isotope-based palaeoenvironmental reconstruction in the Limfjord, Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Philippsen, Bente; Olsen, Jesper; Lewis, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Palaeoenvironmental and 14C reservoir age variability in the Limfjord, a sound through northern Jutland, Denmark, was investigated for the period 7300 to 1300 cal yr BP. Shells and bulk sediment samples from a core from a former inlet, Kilen, were analysed by radiocarbon dating and stable isotope....... They are therefore used to differentiate between brackish and marine palaeo-conditions. 14C reservoir ages of shells vary from ΔR=−140 to +300 14C years. Between 7300 and 5400 cal. yr BP, reservoir age and stable isotope values are highly variable and indicate mixing of marine water and brackish surface waters...... with hard water effects. After 5400 cal. yr BP, the ΔR values stabilise and show an increasingly marine environment, with 14C reservoir ages close to 400 years (ΔR=0). After 2000 cal. yr BP, Kilen becomes brackish. Reservoir ages and stable isotope values are again highly variable and δ13C and C/N values...

An ultraviolet study of B[e] stars: evidence for pulsations, luminous blue variable type variations and processes in envelopes

Science.gov (United States)

Krtičková, I.; Krtička, J.

2018-06-01

Stars that exhibit a B[e] phenomenon comprise a very diverse group of objects in a different evolutionary status. These objects show common spectral characteristics, including the presence of Balmer lines in emission, forbidden lines and strong infrared excess due to dust. Observations of emission lines indicate illumination by an ultraviolet ionizing source, which is key to understanding the elusive nature of these objects. We study the ultraviolet variability of many B[e] stars to specify the geometry of the circumstellar environment and its variability. We analyse massive hot B[e] stars from our Galaxy and from the Magellanic Clouds. We study the ultraviolet broad-band variability derived from the flux-calibrated data. We determine variations of individual lines and the correlation with the total flux variability. We detected variability of the spectral energy distribution and of the line profiles. The variability has several sources of origin, including light absorption by the disc, pulsations, luminous blue variable type variations, and eclipses in the case of binaries. The stellar radiation of most of B[e] stars is heavily obscured by circumstellar material. This suggests that the circumstellar material is present not only in the disc but also above its plane. The flux and line variability is consistent with a two-component model of a circumstellar environment composed of a dense disc and an ionized envelope. Observations of B[e] supergiants show that many of these stars have nearly the same luminosity, about 1.9 × 105 L⊙, and similar effective temperatures.

Soil variability in engineering applications

Science.gov (United States)

Vessia, Giovanna

2014-05-01

Natural geomaterials, as soils and rocks, show spatial variability and heterogeneity of physical and mechanical properties. They can be measured by in field and laboratory testing. The heterogeneity concerns different values of litho-technical parameters pertaining similar lithological units placed close to each other. On the contrary, the variability is inherent to the formation and evolution processes experienced by each geological units (homogeneous geomaterials on average) and captured as a spatial structure of fluctuation of physical property values about their mean trend, e.g. the unit weight, the hydraulic permeability, the friction angle, the cohesion, among others. The preceding spatial variations shall be managed by engineering models to accomplish reliable designing of structures and infrastructures. Materon (1962) introduced the Geostatistics as the most comprehensive tool to manage spatial correlation of parameter measures used in a wide range of earth science applications. In the field of the engineering geology, Vanmarcke (1977) developed the first pioneering attempts to describe and manage the inherent variability in geomaterials although Terzaghi (1943) already highlighted that spatial fluctuations of physical and mechanical parameters used in geotechnical designing cannot be neglected. A few years later, Mandelbrot (1983) and Turcotte (1986) interpreted the internal arrangement of geomaterial according to Fractal Theory. In the same years, Vanmarcke (1983) proposed the Random Field Theory providing mathematical tools to deal with inherent variability of each geological units or stratigraphic succession that can be resembled as one material. In this approach, measurement fluctuations of physical parameters are interpreted through the spatial variability structure consisting in the correlation function and the scale of fluctuation. Fenton and Griffiths (1992) combined random field simulation with the finite element method to produce the Random

Fusarium proliferatum - Causal agent of garlic bulb rot in Spain: Genetic variability and mycotoxin production.

Science.gov (United States)

Gálvez, Laura; Urbaniak, Monika; Waśkiewicz, Agnieszka; Stępień, Łukasz; Palmero, Daniel

2017-10-01

Fusarium proliferatum is a world-wide occurring fungal pathogen affecting several crops included garlic bulbs. In Spain, this is the most frequent pathogenic fungus associated with garlic rot during storage. Moreover, F. proliferatum is an important mycotoxigenic species, producing a broad range of toxins, which may pose a risk for food safety. The aim of this study is to assess the intraspecific variability of the garlic pathogen in Spain implied by analyses of translation elongation factor (tef-1α) and FUM1 gene sequences as well as the differences in growth rates. Phylogenetic characterization has been complemented with the characterization of mating type alleles as well as the species potential as a toxin producer. Phylogenetic trees based on the sequence of the translation elongation factor and FUM1 genes from seventy nine isolates from garlic revealed a considerable intraspecific variability as well as high level of diversity in growth speed. Based on the MAT alleles amplified by PCR, F. proliferatum isolates were separated into different groups on both trees. All isolates collected from garlic in Spain proved to be fumonisin B 1 , B 2 , and B 3 producers. Quantitative analyses of fumonisins, beauvericin and moniliformin (common secondary metabolites of F. proliferatum) showed no correlation with phylogenetic analysis neither mycelial growth. This pathogen presents a high intraspecific variability within the same geographical region and host, which is necessary to be considered in the management of the disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of testing local hidden variable theories in a Charm factory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Junli; Qiao Congfeng

2006-01-01

It is commonly believed that the local hidden variable theories (LHVTs) can be tested through measuring the Bell inequalities. This scheme, for the massive particle system, was originally set up for the entangled K 0 K 0 pair system from the φ factory. In this paper we show that the J/Ψ→K 0 K 0 process is even more realistic for this goal. We analyze the unique properties of J/Ψ in the detection of basic quantum effects, and find that it is possible to use J/Ψ decay as a test of LHVTs in the future τ-charm factory. Our analyses and conclusions are generally also true for other heavy onium decays

Temperature variability over the tropical middle atmosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Mohanakumar

1994-04-01

Full Text Available A study on the variability of temperature in the tropical middle atmosphere over Thumba (8 32' N, 76 52' E, located at the southern part of India, has been carried out based on rocket observations for a period of 20 years, extending from 1970 to 1990. The rocketsonde-derived mean temperatures over Thumba are corrected prior to 1978 and then compared with the middle atmospheric reference model developed from satellite observations and Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME satellite data. Temperature variability at every 1 km interval in the 25-75 km region was analysed. The tropical stratosphere is found to be highly stable, whereas considerable variability is noted in the middle mesosphere. The effect of seasonal cycle is least in the lower stratosphere. Annual and semi-annual oscillations in temperature are the primary oscillations in the tropical middle atmosphere. Annual temperature oscillations are dominant in the mesosphere and semi-annual oscillations are strong in the stratosphere. The stratopause region is noted to be the part of the middle atmosphere least sensitive to the changes in solar activity and long-term variability.

Development from childhood to adulthood increases morphological and functional inter-individual variability in the right superior temporal cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonte, Milene; Frost, Martin A; Rutten, Sanne; Ley, Anke; Formisano, Elia; Goebel, Rainer

2013-12-01

We study the developmental trajectory of morphology and function of the superior temporal cortex (STC) in children (8-9 years), adolescents (14-15 years) and young adults. We analyze cortical surface landmarks and functional MRI (fMRI) responses to voices, other natural categories and tones and examine how hemispheric asymmetry and inter-subject variability change across age. Our results show stable morphological asymmetries across age groups, including a larger left planum temporale and a deeper right superior temporal sulcus. fMRI analyses show that a rightward lateralization for voice-selective responses is present in all groups but decreases with age. Furthermore, STC responses to voices change from being less selective and more spatially diffuse in children to highly selective and focal in adults. Interestingly, the analysis of morphological landmarks reveals that inter-subject variability increases during development in the right--but not in the left--STC. Similarly, inter-subject variability of cortically-realigned functional responses to voices, other categories and tones increases with age in the right STC. Our findings reveal asymmetric developmental changes in brain regions crucial for auditory and voice perception. The age-related increase of inter-subject variability in right STC suggests that anatomy and function of this region are shaped by unique individual developmental experiences. © 2013.

Benchmarking Variable Selection in QSAR.

Science.gov (United States)

Eklund, Martin; Norinder, Ulf; Boyer, Scott; Carlsson, Lars

2012-02-01

Variable selection is important in QSAR modeling since it can improve model performance and transparency, as well as reduce the computational cost of model fitting and predictions. Which variable selection methods that perform well in QSAR settings is largely unknown. To address this question we, in a total of 1728 benchmarking experiments, rigorously investigated how eight variable selection methods affect the predictive performance and transparency of random forest models fitted to seven QSAR datasets covering different endpoints, descriptors sets, types of response variables, and number of chemical compounds. The results show that univariate variable selection methods are suboptimal and that the number of variables in the benchmarked datasets can be reduced with about 60 % without significant loss in model performance when using multivariate adaptive regression splines MARS and forward selection. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Does habitat variability really promote metabolic network modularity?

Science.gov (United States)

Takemoto, Kazuhiro

2013-01-01

The hypothesis that variability in natural habitats promotes modular organization is widely accepted for cellular networks. However, results of some data analyses and theoretical studies have begun to cast doubt on the impact of habitat variability on modularity in metabolic networks. Therefore, we re-evaluated this hypothesis using statistical data analysis and current metabolic information. We were unable to conclude that an increase in modularity was the result of habitat variability. Although horizontal gene transfer was also considered because it may contribute for survival in a variety of environments, closely related to habitat variability, and is known to be positively correlated with network modularity, such a positive correlation was not concluded in the latest version of metabolic networks. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the previously observed increase in network modularity due to habitat variability and horizontal gene transfer was probably due to a lack of available data on metabolic reactions. Instead, we determined that modularity in metabolic networks is dependent on species growth conditions. These results may not entirely discount the impact of habitat variability and horizontal gene transfer. Rather, they highlight the need for a more suitable definition of habitat variability and a more careful examination of relationships of the network modularity with horizontal gene transfer, habitats, and environments.

ESEARCH OF THE LAW OF DISTRIBUTION OF THE RANDOM VARIABLE OF THE COMPRESSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Sarayeva

2011-01-01

Full Text Available At research of diagnosing the process of modern automobile engines by means of methods of mathematical statistics the experimental data of the random variable of compression are analysed and it is proved that the random variable of compression has the form of the normal law of distribution.

Effect of Climate Variability on Crop Income in Central Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arega Shumetie Ademe

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Ethiopian agriculture is a vulnerable sector from effects of climate variability. This study identified how strong is the effect of climate variability on smallholders’ crop income in Central highlands and Arssi grain plough farming systems of the country. The unbalanced panel data (1994-2014 of the study collected for eight rounds analysed through fixed effect regression. The model result shows that successive increment of crop season rainfall keeping the temperature constant has negative and significant effect on households’ crop income in the study area. The crop income responds similarly for temperature increment if the rainfall remains constant. Given this, simultaneous increment of the two climate related inputs has positive and significant effect on crop income. Other variables like flood, frost, storm, and rainfall inconsistency in the onset and cessation time affected households’ crop income negatively and significantly. Similarly, draught power and human labour, which are critical inputs in the crop production of Ethiopian smallholders, have positive and significant effect on crop income as to the model result. Thus, this study recommended that there should be supplementing the rainfall through irrigation, check dam and other activities to have consistent water supply for the crop production that enable smallholders to collect better income. Additionally, negative effect of temperature increment should be curved through adopting long lasting strategies like afforestation.

Role of environmental variables on radon concentration in soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Climent, H.; Bakalowicz, M.; Monnin, M.

1998-01-01

In the frame of an European project, radon concentrations in soil and measurements of environmental variables such as the nature of the soil or climatic variables were monitored. The data have been analysed by time-series analysis methods, i.e. Correlation and Spectrum Analysis, to point out relations between radon concentrations and some environmental variables. This approach is a compromise between direct observation and modelling. The observation of the rough time series is unable to point out the relation between radon concentrations and an environmental variable because of the overlapping of the influences of several variables, and the time delay induced by the medium. The Cross Spectrum function between the time series of radon and of an environmental variable describes the nature of the relation and gives the response time in the case of a cause to effect relation. It requires the only hypothesis that the environmental variable is the input function and radon concentration the output function. This analysis is an important preliminary study for modelling. By that way the importance of soil nature has been pointed out. The internal variables of the medium (permeability, porosity) appear to restrain the influence of the environmental variables such as humidity, temperature or atmospheric pressure. (author)

Prognostic value of biochemical variables for survival after surgery for metastatic bone disease of the extremities.

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Sørensen, Michala Skovlund; Hovgaard, Thea Bechman; Hindsø, Klaus; Petersen, Michael Mørk

2017-03-01

Prediction of survival in patients having surgery for metastatic bone disease in the extremities (MBDex) has been of interest in more than two decades. Hitherto no consensus on the value of biochemical variables has been achieved. Our purpose was (1) to investigate if standard biochemical variables have independent prognostic value for survival after surgery for MBDex and (2) to identify optimal prognostic cut off values for survival of biochemical variables. In a consecutive cohort of 270 patients having surgery for MBDex, we measured preoperative biochemical variables: hemoglobin, alkaline phosphatase, C-reactive protein and absolute, neutrophil and lymphocyte count. ROC curve analyses were performed to identify optimal cut off levels. Independent prognostic factors for variables were addressed with multiple Cox regression analyses. Optimal cut off levels were identified as: hemoglobin 7.45 mmol/L, absolute lymphocyte count 8.5 × 10 9 /L, neutrophil 5.68 × 10 9 /L, lymphocyte 1.37 × 10 9 /L, C-reactive protein 22.5 mg/L, and alkaline phosphatase 129 U/L. Regression analyses found alkaline phosphatase (HR 2.49) and neutrophil count (HR 2.49) to be independent prognostic factors. We found neutrophil count and alkaline phosphatase to be independent prognostic variables in predicting survival in patients after surgery for MBDex. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Freefem++ in THM analyses of KBS-3 deposition hole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lempinen, A.

2006-12-01

The applicability of Freefem++ as a software for thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of KBS-3V deposition hole was evaluated. Freefem++ is software for multiphysical simulations with finite element method. A set of previously performed analyses were successfully repeated with Freefem++. The only significant problem was to impose unique values for variables at the canister surface. This problem can be circumvented with an iterative method, and it can possibly be solved later, since Freefem++ is opensource software. (orig.)

A novel variable selection approach that iteratively optimizes variable space using weighted binary matrix sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Bai-chuan; Yun, Yong-huan; Liang, Yi-zeng; Yi, Lun-zhao

2014-10-07

In this study, a new optimization algorithm called the Variable Iterative Space Shrinkage Approach (VISSA) that is based on the idea of model population analysis (MPA) is proposed for variable selection. Unlike most of the existing optimization methods for variable selection, VISSA statistically evaluates the performance of variable space in each step of optimization. Weighted binary matrix sampling (WBMS) is proposed to generate sub-models that span the variable subspace. Two rules are highlighted during the optimization procedure. First, the variable space shrinks in each step. Second, the new variable space outperforms the previous one. The second rule, which is rarely satisfied in most of the existing methods, is the core of the VISSA strategy. Compared with some promising variable selection methods such as competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination (MCUVE) and iteratively retaining informative variables (IRIV), VISSA showed better prediction ability for the calibration of NIR data. In addition, VISSA is user-friendly; only a few insensitive parameters are needed, and the program terminates automatically without any additional conditions. The Matlab codes for implementing VISSA are freely available on the website: https://sourceforge.net/projects/multivariateanalysis/files/VISSA/.

Genomic patterns in Acropora cervicornis show extensive population structure and variable genetic diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Drury, Crawford; Schopmeyer, Stephanie; Goergen, Elizabeth; Bartels, Erich; Nedimyer, Ken; Johnson, Meaghan; Maxwell, Kerry; Galvan, Victor; Manfrino, Carrie; Lirman, Diego

2017-08-01

Threatened Caribbean coral communities can benefit from high-resolution genetic data used to inform management and conservation action. We use Genotyping by Sequencing (GBS) to investigate genetic patterns in the threatened coral, Acropora cervicornis , across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) and the western Caribbean. Results show extensive population structure at regional scales and resolve previously unknown structure within the FRT. Different regions also exhibit up to threefold differences in genetic diversity (He), suggesting targeted management based on the goals and resources of each population is needed. Patterns of genetic diversity have a strong spatial component, and our results show Broward and the Lower Keys are among the most diverse populations in Florida. The genetic diversity of Caribbean staghorn coral is concentrated within populations and within individual reefs (AMOVA), highlighting the complex mosaic of population structure. This variance structure is similar over regional and local scales, which suggests that in situ nurseries are adequately capturing natural patterns of diversity, representing a resource that can replicate the average diversity of wild assemblages, serving to increase intraspecific diversity and potentially leading to improved biodiversity and ecosystem function. Results presented here can be translated into specific goals for the recovery of A. cervicornis , including active focus on low diversity areas, protection of high diversity and connectivity, and practical thresholds for responsible restoration.

A palynological study of Polynesian and European effects on vegetation in Coromandel, New Zealand, showing the variability between four records from a single swamp

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrami, M.; Ogden, J.; Horrocks, M.; Deng, Y.; Shane, P.; Palmer, J.

2002-01-01

Seven cores were extracted from a river terrace swamp in the forested Kauaeranga valley, Coromandel Peninsula, New Zealand. High-resolution (c. 36-73 yr interval) pollen records were obtained from four of the cores and aged by radiocarbon dating and with stratigraphic reference to the 665 ± 15 14 C yr BP Kaharoa Tephra. The records span the last c. 1800 yr and show that the vegetation consisted of lowland podocarp-hardwood forest before deforestation by burning occurred. The pattern of deforestation at Kauaeranga, indicated by the abrupt dominance of Pteridium with concurrent increased charcoal, is typical of pollen records associated with early Polynesian settlement in New Zealand. Peaks of Pteridium and charcoal were also found in sediments deposited after European settlement. Different cores show marked palynological and stratigraphic differences relative to the Kaharoa Tephra, most importantly with regard to the timing of deforestation. Deforestation occurred close to the Kaharoa, at a calculated age of c. 750 BP in one core but well above the Kaharoa (c. 480 BP) in another. The stratigraphic unconformities between cores are attributed to variable fluvial processes causing an uneven deposition of sediments within the swamp. (author). 32 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline G; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M

2017-12-21

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K -1 globally, 4-5% K -1 over land and 2-4% K -1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

Science.gov (United States)

Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

2013-10-01

The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

Searching for intermediate-mass black holes via optical variability

Science.gov (United States)

Adler-Levine, Ryan; Moran, Edward C.; Kay, Laura

2018-01-01

A handful of nearby dwarf galaxies with intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) in their nuclei display significant optical variability on short timescales. To investigate whether dwarf galaxy AGNs as a class exhibit similar variability, we have monitored a sample of low-mass galaxies that possess spectroscopically confirmed type 1 AGNs. However, because of the variations in seeing, focus, and guiding errors that occur in images taken at different epochs, analyses based on aperture photometry are ineffective. We have thus developed a new method for matching point-spread functions in images that permits use of image subtraction photometry techniques. Applying this method to our photometric data, we have confirmed that several galaxies with IMBHs are indeed variable, which suggests that variability can be used to search for IMBHs in low-mass galaxies whose emission-line properties are ambiguous.

Ecological Diversity in South American Mammals: Their Geographical Distribution Shows Variable Associations with Phylogenetic Diversity and Does Not Follow the Latitudinal Richness Gradient.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Nilda Fergnani

Full Text Available The extent to which the latitudinal gradient in species richness may be paralleled by a similar gradient of increasing functional or phylogenetic diversity is a matter of controversy. We evaluated whether taxonomic richness (TR is informative in terms of ecological diversity (ED, an approximation to functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity (AvPD using data on 531 mammal species representing South American old autochthonous (marsupials, xenarthrans, mid-Cenozoic immigrants (hystricognaths, primates and newcomers (carnivorans, artiodactyls. If closely related species are ecologically more similar than distantly related species, AvPD will be a strong predictor of ED; however, lower ED than predicted from AvPD may be due to species retaining most of their ancestral characters, suggesting niche conservatism. This pattern could occur in tropical rainforests for taxa of tropical affinity (old autochthonous and mid-Cenozoic immigrants and in open and arid habitats for newcomers. In contrast, higher ED than expected from AvPD could occur, possibly in association with niche evolution, in arid and open habitats for taxa of tropical affinity and in forested habitats for newcomers. We found that TR was a poor predictor of ED and AvPD. After controlling for TR, there was considerable variability in the extent to which AvPD accounted for ED. Taxa of tropical affinity did not support the prediction of ED deficit within tropical rainforests, rather, they showed a mosaic of regions with an excess of ED interspersed with zones of ED deficit within the tropics; newcomers showed ED deficit in arid and open regions. Some taxa of tropical affinity showed excess of ED in tropical desert areas (hystricognaths or temperate semideserts (xenarthrans; newcomers showed excess of ED at cold-temperate latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. This result suggests that extreme climatic conditions at both temperate and tropical latitudes may have promoted niche evolution in

Compositional variability of nutrients and phytochemicals in corn after processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Prasanthi, P S; Naveena, N; Vishnuvardhana Rao, M; Bhaskarachary, K

2017-04-01

The result of various process strategies on the nutrient and phytochemical composition of corn samples were studied. Fresh and cooked baby corn, sweet corn, dent corn and industrially processed and cooked popcorn, corn grits, corn flour and corn flakes were analysed for the determination of proximate, minerals, xanthophylls and phenolic acids content. This study revealed that the proximate composition of popcorn is high compared to the other corn products analyzed while the mineral composition of these maize products showed higher concentration of magnesium, phosphorus, potassium and low concentration of calcium, manganese, zinc, iron, copper, and sodium. Popcorn was high in iron, zinc, copper, manganese, sodium, magnesium and phosphorus. The xanthophylls lutein and zeaxanthin were predominant in the dent corn and the total polyphenolic content was highest in dent corn while the phenolic acids distribution was variable in different corn products. This study showed preparation and processing brought significant reduction of xanthophylls and polyphenols.

Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

2013-01-01

In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

Intelligent control for large-scale variable speed variable pitch wind turbines

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xinfang ZHANG; Daping XU; Yibing LIU

2004-01-01

Large-scale wind turbine generator systems have strong nonlinear multivariable characteristics with many uncertain factors and disturbances.Automatic control is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of wind turbines.On the basis of simplified and proper model of variable speed variable pitch wind turbines,the effective wind speed is estimated using extended Kalman filter.Intelligent control schemes proposed in the paper include two loops which operate in synchronism with each other.At below-rated wind speed,the inner loop adopts adaptive fuzzy control based on variable universe for generator torque regulation to realize maximum wind energy capture.At above-rated wind speed, a controller based on least square support vector machine is proposed to adjust pitch angle and keep rated output power.The simulation shows the effectiveness of the intelligent control.

Comparison of variance estimators for metaanalysis of instrumental variable estimates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmidt, A. F.; Hingorani, A. D.; Jefferis, B. J.; White, J.; Groenwold, R. H H; Dudbridge, F.; Ben-Shlomo, Y.; Chaturvedi, N.; Engmann, J.; Hughes, A.; Humphries, S.; Hypponen, E.; Kivimaki, M.; Kuh, D.; Kumari, M.; Menon, U.; Morris, R.; Power, C.; Price, J.; Wannamethee, G.; Whincup, P.

2016-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization studies perform instrumental variable (IV) analysis using genetic IVs. Results of individual Mendelian randomization studies can be pooled through meta-analysis. We explored how different variance estimators influence the meta-analysed IV estimate. Methods: Two

Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2005-08-01

The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

Biological variability of glycated hemoglobin.

Science.gov (United States)

Braga, Federica; Dolci, Alberto; Mosca, Andrea; Panteghini, Mauro

2010-11-11

The measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has a pivotal role in monitoring glycemic state in diabetic patients. Furthermore, the American Diabetes Association has recently recommended the use of HbA(1c) for diabetes diagnosis, but a clear definition of the clinically allowable measurement error is still lacking. Information on biological variability of the analyte can be used to achieve this goal. We systematically reviewed the published studies on the biological variation of HbA(1c) to check consistency of available data in order to accurately define analytical goals. The nine recruited studies were limited by choice of analytic methodology, population selection, protocol application and statistical analyses. There is an urgent need to determine biological variability of HbA(1c) using a specific and traceable assay, appropriate protocol and appropriate statistical evaluation of data. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observer variability when evaluating patient movement from electronic portal images of pelvic radiotherapy fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geraint Lewis, D.; Ryan, Karen R.; Smith, Cyril W.

2005-01-01

Background and purpose: A study has been performed to evaluate inter-observer variability when assessing pelvic patient movement using an electronic portal imaging device (EPID). Materials and methods: Four patient image sets were used with 3-6 portal images per set. The observer group consisted of nine radiographers with 3-18 months clinical EPID experience. The observers outlined bony landmarks on a digital simulator image and used matching software to evaluate field placement errors (FPEs) on each portal image relative to the reference simulator image. Data were evaluated statistically, using a two-component analysis of variance technique, to quantify both the inter-observer variability in evaluating FPEs and inter-fraction variability in patient position relative to the residuals of the analysis. Intra-observer variability was also estimated using four of the observers carrying out three sets of repeat readings. Results: Eight sets of variance data were analysed, based on FPEs in two orthogonal directions for each of the four patient image sets studied. Initial analysis showed that both inter-observer variation and inter-fraction-patient position variation were statistically significant (P<0.05) in seven of the eight cases evaluated. The averaged root-mean-square (RMS) deviation of the observers from the group mean was 1.1 mm, with a maximum deviation of 5.0 mm recorded for an individual observer. After additional training and re-testing of two of the observers who recorded the largest deviations from the group mean, a subsequent analysis showed the inter-observer variability for the group to be significant in only three of the eight cases, with averaged RMS deviation reduced to 0.5 mm, with a maximum deviation of 2.7 mm. The intra-observer variability was 0.5 mm, averaged over the four observers tested. Conclusions: We have developed a quantitative approach to evaluate inter-observer variability in terms of its statistical significance compared to inter

Crack Propagation in Plane Strain under Variable Amplitude Loading

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ricardo, Luiz Carlos Hernandes

2010-01-01

. In this paper procedures to determine the crack opening and closure by finite elements analyses in plane strain will be presented. The objective of this paper is also provide a review of retardation models under variable spectrum loading considering plane strain constraint as well as their correlation...

Continuous-variable quantum teleportation of even and odd coherent states through varied gain channels

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Li Ying; Zhang Jing; Zhang Jun-Xiang; Zhang Tian-Cai

2006-01-01

This paper has investigated quantum teleportation of even and odd coherent states in terms of the EPR entanglement states for continuous variables. It discusses the relationship between the fidelity and the entanglement of EPR states, which is characterized by the degree of squeezing and the gain of classical channels. It shows that the quality of teleporting quantum states also depends on the characteristics of the states themselves. The properties of teleporting even and odd coherent states at different intensities are investigated. The difference of teleporting two such kinds of quantum states are analysed based on the quantum distance function.

Genomic Variability of Citrus tristeza virus (CTV Isolates Introduced into Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bouabid Lbida

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Genomic variability of the coat protein gene of Citrus tristeza virus isolates obtained from old Meyer lemon introductions in Morocco and more recent budwood introductions from Spain were studied. The coat protein gene of the virus was amplified directly from infected tissue by immunocapture RT-PCR and analysed by single stranded conformation polymorphism (SSCP and sequencing. Each isolate consisted of several related genomic variants, typical of a quasi-species. Although SSCP analysis has only limited typing ability it could be used in an initial screening to discriminate between isolates of different origin and to analyse the genomic structure of each isolate. Sequence analysis showed that the isolates of Spanish origin were closely related to mild isolates characterised in Florida and in Portugal. The Meyer lemon isolate on the other hand was related to severe strains of Meyer lemon characterised in Florida some years ago and to other severe strains from Brasil. A knowledge of the coat protein gene sequence is useful to trace the origin of the isolates.

Energy, exergy, economic (3E) analyses and multi-objective optimization of vapor absorption heat transformer using NSGA-II technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, Vaibhav; Sachdeva, Gulshan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Study includes energy, exergy and economic analyses of absorption heat transformer. • It addresses multi-objective optimization study using NSGA-II technique. • Total annual cost and total exergy destruction are simultaneously optimized. • Results with multi-objective optimized design are more acceptable than other. - Abstract: Present paper addresses the energy, exergy and economic (3E) analyses of absorption heat transformer (AHT) working with LiBr-H 2 O fluid pair. The heat exchangers namely absorber, condenser, evaporator, generator and solution heat exchanger are designed for the size and cost estimation of AHT. Later, the effect of operating variables is examined on the system performance, size and cost. Simulation studies showed a conflict between thermodynamic and economic performance of the system. The heat exchangers with lower investment cost showed high irreversible losses and vice versa. Thus, the operating variables of systems are determined economically as well as thermodynamically by implementing non-dominated sort genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) technique of multi-objective optimization. In present work, if the cost based optimized design is chosen, total exergy destruction is 2.4% higher than its minimum possible value; whereas, if total exergy based optimized design is chosen, total annual cost is 6.1% higher than its minimum possible value. On the other hands, total annual cost and total exergy destruction are only 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively more from their minimum possible values with multi-objective optimized design. Thus, the multi-objective optimized design of the AHT is best outcome than any other single-objective optimized designs.

Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

2018-01-01

In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

Review and classification of variability analysis techniques with clinical applications

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Analysis of patterns of variation of time-series, termed variability analysis, represents a rapidly evolving discipline with increasing applications in different fields of science. In medicine and in particular critical care, efforts have focussed on evaluating the clinical utility of variability. However, the growth and complexity of techniques applicable to this field have made interpretation and understanding of variability more challenging. Our objective is to provide an updated review of variability analysis techniques suitable for clinical applications. We review more than 70 variability techniques, providing for each technique a brief description of the underlying theory and assumptions, together with a summary of clinical applications. We propose a revised classification for the domains of variability techniques, which include statistical, geometric, energetic, informational, and invariant. We discuss the process of calculation, often necessitating a mathematical transform of the time-series. Our aims are to summarize a broad literature, promote a shared vocabulary that would improve the exchange of ideas, and the analyses of the results between different studies. We conclude with challenges for the evolving science of variability analysis. PMID:21985357

Review and classification of variability analysis techniques with clinical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Bravi, Andrea; Longtin, André; Seely, Andrew J E

2011-10-10

Analysis of patterns of variation of time-series, termed variability analysis, represents a rapidly evolving discipline with increasing applications in different fields of science. In medicine and in particular critical care, efforts have focussed on evaluating the clinical utility of variability. However, the growth and complexity of techniques applicable to this field have made interpretation and understanding of variability more challenging. Our objective is to provide an updated review of variability analysis techniques suitable for clinical applications. We review more than 70 variability techniques, providing for each technique a brief description of the underlying theory and assumptions, together with a summary of clinical applications. We propose a revised classification for the domains of variability techniques, which include statistical, geometric, energetic, informational, and invariant. We discuss the process of calculation, often necessitating a mathematical transform of the time-series. Our aims are to summarize a broad literature, promote a shared vocabulary that would improve the exchange of ideas, and the analyses of the results between different studies. We conclude with challenges for the evolving science of variability analysis.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Improving transition between power optimization and power limitation of variable speed/variable pitch wind turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A D; Bindner, H [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Rebsdorf, A [Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Lem (Denmark)

1999-03-01

The paper summarises and describes the main results of a recently performed study of improving the transition between power optimization and power limitation for variable speed/variable pitch wind turbines. The results show that the capability of varying the generator speed also can be exploited in the transition stage to improve the quality of the generated power. (au)

Major urinary protein (MUP) profiles show dynamic changes rather than individual 'barcode' signatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Thoß, M; Luzynski, K C; Ante, M; Miller, I; Penn, D J

2015-06-30

House mice ( Mus musculus) produce a variable number of major urinary proteins (MUPs), and studies suggest that each individual produces a unique MUP profile that provides a distinctive odor signature controlling individual and kin recognition. This 'barcode hypothesis' requires that MUP urinary profiles show high individual variability within populations and also high individual consistency over time, but tests of these assumptions are lacking. We analyzed urinary MUP profiles of 66 wild-caught house mice from eight populations using isoelectric focusing. We found that MUP profiles of wild male house mice are not individually unique, and though they were highly variable, closer inspection revealed that the variation strongly depended on MUP band type. The prominent ('major) bands were surprisingly homogenous (and hence most MUPs are not polymorphic), but we also found inconspicuous ('minor') bands that were highly variable and therefore potential candidates for individual fingerprints. We also examined changes in urinary MUP profiles of 58 males over time (from 6 to 24 weeks of age), and found that individual MUP profiles and MUP concentration were surprisingly dynamic, and showed significant changes after puberty and during adulthood. Contrary to what we expected, however, the minor bands were the most variable over time, thus no good candidates for individual fingerprints. Although MUP profiles do not provide individual fingerprints, we found that MUP profiles were more similar among siblings than non-kin despite considerable fluctuation. Our findings show that MUP profiles are not highly stable over time, they do not show strong individual clustering, and thus challenge the barcode hypothesis. Within-individual dynamics of MUP profiles indicate a different function of MUPs in individual recognition than previously assumed and advocate an alternative hypothesis ('dynamic changes' hypothesis).

Variability in soybean yield in Brazil stemming from the interaction of heterogeneous management and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Cohn, A.; Bragança, A.; Jeffries, G. R.

2017-12-01

An increasing share of global agricultural production can be found in the humid tropics. Therefore, an improved understanding of the mechanisms governing variability in the output of tropical agricultural systems is of increasing importance for food security including through climate change adaptation. Yet, the long window over which many tropical crops can be sown, the diversity of crop varieties and management practices combine to challenge inference into climate risk to cropping output in analyses of tropical crop-climate sensitivity employing administrative data. In this paper, we leverage a newly developed spatially explicit dataset of soybean yields in Brazil to combat this problem. The dataset was built by training a model of remotely-sensed vegetation index data and land cover classification data using a rich in situ dataset of soybean yield and management variables collected over the period 2006 to 2016. The dataset contains soybean yields by plant date, cropping frequency, and maturity group for each 5km grid cell in Brazil. We model variation in these yields using an approach enabling the estimation of the influence of management factors on the sensitivity of soybean yields to variability in: cumulative solar radiation, extreme degree days, growing degree days, flooding rain in the harvest period, and dry spells in the rainy season. We find strong variation in climate sensitivity by management class. Planting date and maturity group each explained a great deal more variation in yield sensitivity than did cropping frequency. Brazil collects comparatively fine spatial resolution yield data. But, our attempt to replicate our results using administrative soy yield data revealed substantially lesser crop-climate sensitivity; suggesting that previous analyses employing administrative data may have underestimated climate risk to tropical soy production.

Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.

2010-07-01

In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

Variability assesment of some morphological traits among blue pine (pinus wallichiana) communities in hindukush ranges of Swat, Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, I. U.; Khan, N.; Ali, K.

2017-01-01

Pinus wallichiana dominated forest communities, located in the Hindukush ranges of Swat, Pakistan were analysed for variability in the cone and seed traits. The results disclosed significant variability in mean values, critical difference, co-efficient of variation, broad sense heritability, genetic gain and genetic advance. Genotypic variance (Vg) and genotypic coefficient of variance (GCV) were noted to be lower than the corresponding environmental variance (Ve) and environmental coefficient of variability (ECV) for most of the parameters which clearly shows that these traits are under the control of environment. Both Number of male clusters/branch and 100 seeds weight are heritable traits as having higher genotypic variance and genotypic coefficient of variance. Traits like 100 seeds weight, Number of male cluster/branch, number of female cones/tree, female cone weight and number of sterile scales/cone showed moderate to high percentage of heritability indicates that these traits are under strong genetic control. These heritable additive genetic traits can be used for future breeding and tree improvement plans for the species. It is further concluded that the alleged traits should be given priority while selecting superior genotypes. (author)

Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-05-01

Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

Wind Patterns of Coastal Tanzania: Their Variability and Trends

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Abstract—Patterns in Tanzanian coastal winds were investigated in terms of their variability at the weather stations of Tanga, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and Mtwara. Three-hourly data collected over a 30-year period (1977-2006) were used for the study. Statistical analyses included regressions, correlations, spectral analysis,.

Variability in human body size

Science.gov (United States)

Annis, J. F.

1978-01-01

The range of variability found among homogeneous groups is described and illustrated. Those trends that show significantly marked differences between sexes and among a number of racial/ethnic groups are also presented. Causes of human-body size variability discussed include genetic endowment, aging, nutrition, protective garments, and occupation. The information is presented to aid design engineers of space flight hardware and equipment.

Influence of inter-annual environmental variability on chrysophyte cyst assemblages: insight from a 2-years sediment trap study in lakes from northern Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iván Hernández-Almeida

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Quantitative paleonvironmental studies using transfer functions are developed from training sets. However, changes in some variables (e.g., climatic can be difficult to identify from short-term monitoring (e.g., less than one year. Here, we present the study of the chrysophyte cyst assemblages from sediment traps deployed during two consecutive years (November 2011-November 2013 in 14 lakes from Northern Poland. The studied lakes are distributed along a W-E climatological gradient, with very different physical, chemical and morphological characteristics, and land-uses. Field surveys were carried out to recover the sediment trap material during autumn, along with the measurement of several environmental variables (nutrients, major water ions, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a. During the study, one year experienced mild seasonal changes in air temperature (November 2011-November 2012; TS1, typical of oceanic climate, while the other year was characterized by colder winter and spring (November 2012-November 2013; TS2, and higher summer temperatures, more characteristic of continental climate. Other environmental variables (e.g., nutrients did not show great changes between both years. Multivariate statistical analyses (RDA and DCA were performed on individual TS1 and TS2 datasets. Water chemistry and nutrients (pH, TN and TP explained the largest portion of the variance of the chrysophyte data for the individual years. However, analyses of the combined TS1 and TS2 datasets show that strong changes between summer and autumn (warm period, ice-free period with thermal stratification and winter and spring (cold period, ice-cover period play the most important role in the inter-annual variability in the chrysophyte assemblages. We show how inter-annual sampling maximizes ecological gradients of interest, particularly in regions with large environmental diversity, and low climatic variability. This methodology could help to identify

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

OpenAIRE

Koster, P.R.; Kroes, E.P.; Verhoef, E.T.

2010-01-01

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological (2011). Vol. 45(10), pages 1545-1559. This paper analyses the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since it is likely that the cost of missing a flight is high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed, including trip purpose, type of airport, flight characteristics, travel experience, type of che...

The variability is in the sex chromosomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Reinhold, Klaus; Engqvist, Leif

2013-12-01

Sex differences in the mean trait expression are well documented, not only for traits that are directly associated with reproduction. Less is known about how the variability of traits differs between males and females. In species with sex chromosomes and dosage compensation, the heterogametic sex is expected to show larger trait variability ("sex-chromosome hypothesis"), yet this central prediction, based on fundamental genetic principles, has never been evaluated in detail. Here we show that in species with heterogametic males, male variability in body size is significantly larger than in females, whereas the opposite can be shown for species with heterogametic females. These results support the prediction of the sex-chromosome hypothesis that individuals of the heterogametic sex should be more variable. We argue that the pattern demonstrated here for sex-specific body size variability is likely to apply to any trait and needs to be considered when testing predictions about sex-specific variability and sexual selection. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Kinetic analyses and mathematical modeling of primary photochemical and photoelectrochemical processes in plant photosystems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vredenberg, W.J.

2011-01-01

In this paper the model and simulation of primary photochemical and photo-electrochemical reactions in dark-adapted intact plant leaves is presented. A descriptive algorithm has been derived from analyses of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence and P700 oxidation kinetics upon excitation with

Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of

IDEA: Interactive Display for Evolutionary Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Egan, Amy; Mahurkar, Anup; Crabtree, Jonathan; Badger, Jonathan H; Carlton, Jane M; Silva, Joana C

2008-12-08

The availability of complete genomic sequences for hundreds of organisms promises to make obtaining genome-wide estimates of substitution rates, selective constraints and other molecular evolution variables of interest an increasingly important approach to addressing broad evolutionary questions. Two of the programs most widely used for this purpose are codeml and baseml, parts of the PAML (Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood) suite. A significant drawback of these programs is their lack of a graphical user interface, which can limit their user base and considerably reduce their efficiency. We have developed IDEA (Interactive Display for Evolutionary Analyses), an intuitive graphical input and output interface which interacts with PHYLIP for phylogeny reconstruction and with codeml and baseml for molecular evolution analyses. IDEA's graphical input and visualization interfaces eliminate the need to edit and parse text input and output files, reducing the likelihood of errors and improving processing time. Further, its interactive output display gives the user immediate access to results. Finally, IDEA can process data in parallel on a local machine or computing grid, allowing genome-wide analyses to be completed quickly. IDEA provides a graphical user interface that allows the user to follow a codeml or baseml analysis from parameter input through to the exploration of results. Novel options streamline the analysis process, and post-analysis visualization of phylogenies, evolutionary rates and selective constraint along protein sequences simplifies the interpretation of results. The integration of these functions into a single tool eliminates the need for lengthy data handling and parsing, significantly expediting access to global patterns in the data.

We're Playing "Jeremy Kyle"! Television Talk Shows in the Playground

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Jackie; Bishop, Julia

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on an episode of play in a primary school playground in England, which featured a group of children re-enacting elements of the television talk show "The Jeremy Kyle Show". The episode is analysed in the light of work that has identified the key elements of the talk show genre and the children's play is examined in…

Comparison between OpenFOAM CFD & BEM theory for variable speed – variable pitch HAWT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ElQatary Islam

2014-01-01

Full Text Available OpenFoam is used to compare computational fluid dynamics (CFD with blade element momentum theory (BEM for a variable speed - variable pitch HAWT (Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine. The wind turbine is first designed using the BEM to determine the blade chord, twist and operating conditions. The wind turbine blade has an outer diameter of 14 m, uses a NACA 63–415 profile for the entire blade and root to tip twist distribution of 15deg (Figure 3. The RPM varies from 20–75 for freestream velocities varying between 3–10.5 m/s (variable speed and a constant RPM of 78.78 for velocities ranging between 11–25 m/s (variable pitch. OpenFOAM is used to investigate the wind turbine performance at several operating points including cut-in wind speed (3 m/s, rated wind speed (10.5 m/s and in the variable pitch zone. Simulation results show that in the variable-speed operating range, both CFD and BEM compare reasonably well. This agreement can be attributed to the fact that the complex three-dimensional flow around the turbine blades can be split into two radial segments. For radii less than the mid-span, the flow is three-dimensional, whereas for radii greater than the mid-span, the flow is approximately two-dimensional. Since the majority of the power is produced from sections beyond the mid-span, the agreement between CFD and BEM is reasonable. For the variable-pitch operating range the CFD results and BEM deviate considerably. In this case the majority of the power is produced from the inner sections in which the flow is three-dimensional and can no longer be predicted by the BEM. The results show that differences in pitch angles up to 10deg can result to regulate the power for high wind speeds in the variable-pitch operation zone.

Assessing variability in results in systematic reviews of diagnostic studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; Ochodo, Eleanor A; Van Enst, Wynanda A; de Groot, Joris A H; Hooft, Lotty; Leeflang, Mariska M G; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: To describe approaches used in systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy studies for assessing variability in estimates of accuracy between studies and to provide guidance in this area. METHODS: Meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies published between May and September

An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corey Sparks

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this method, I find that the farming population of Orkney, Scotland, showed less variability in their reproduction and growth rates than the non-farming population during a period of net population decline. I conclude by suggesting that the variable-r method can be used in general cases where the relative growth of subpopulations or subpopulation reproduction is of interest.

Interictal cardiorespiratory variability in temporal lobe and absence epilepsy in childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Varon, Carolina; Montalto, Alessandro; Jansen, Katrien; Lagae, Lieven; Marinazzo, Daniele; Faes, Luca; Van Huffel, Sabine

2015-04-01

It is well known that epilepsy has a profound effect on the autonomic nervous system, especially on the autonomic control of heart rate and respiration. This effect has been widely studied during seizure activity, but less attention has been given to interictal (i.e. seizure-free) activity. The studies that have been done on this topic, showed that heart rate and respiration can be affected individually, even without the occurrence of seizures. In this work, the interactions between these two individual physiological variables are analysed during interictal activity in temporal lobe and absence epilepsy in childhood. These interactions are assessed by decomposing the predictive information about heart rate variability, into different components like the transfer entropy, cross-entropy, self- entropy and the conditional self entropy. Each one of these components quantifies different types of shared information. However, when using the cross-entropy and the conditional self entropy, it is possible to split the information carried by the heart rate, into two main components, one related to respiration and one related to different mechanisms, like sympathetic activation. This can be done after assuming a directional link going from respiration to heart rate. After analysing all the entropy components, it is shown that in subjects with absence epilepsy the information shared by respiration and heart rate is significantly lower than for normal subjects. And a more remarkable finding indicates that this type of epilepsy seems to have a long term effect on the cardiac and respiratory control mechanisms of the autonomic nervous system.

Genetic variability of Echinococcus granulosus from the Tibetan plateau inferred by mitochondrial DNA sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Ning; Nie, Hua-Ming; Jiang, Zhong-Rong; Yang, Ai-Guo; Deng, Shi-Jin; Guo, Li; Yu, Hua; Yan, Yu-Bao; Tsering, Dawa; Kong, Wei-Shu; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jia-Hai; Xie, Yue; Fu, Yan; Yang, De-Ying; Wang, Shu-Xian; Gu, Xiao-Bin; Peng, Xue-Rong; Yang, Guang-You

2013-09-01

To analyse genetic variability and population structure, 84 isolates of Echinococcus granulosus (Cestoda: Taeniidae) collected from various host species at different sites of the Tibetan plateau in China were sequenced for the whole mitochondrial nad1 (894 bp) and atp6 (513 bp) genes. The vast majority were classified as G1 genotype (n=82), and two samples from human patients in Sichuan province were identified as G3 genotype. Based on the concatenated sequences of nad1+atp6, 28 different haplotypes (NA1-NA28) were identified. A parsimonious network of the concatenated sequence haplotypes showed star-like features in the overall population, with NA1 as the major haplotype in the population networks. By AMOVA it was shown that variation of E. granulosus within the overall population was the main pattern of the total genetic variability. Neutrality indexes of the concatenated sequence (nad1+atp6) were computed by Tajima's D and Fu's Fs tests and showed high negative values for E. granulosus, indicating significant deviations from neutrality. FST and Nm values suggested that the populations were not genetically differentiated. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of cephalometric analyses for assessing sagittal jaw relationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erum, G.; Fida, M.

2008-01-01

To compare the seven methods of cephalometric analysis for assessing sagittal jaw relationship and to determine the level of agreement between them. Seven methods, describing anteroposterior jaw relationships (A-B plane, ANB, Wits, AXB, AF-BF, FABA and Beta angle) were measured on the lateral cephalographs of 85 patients. Correlation analysis, using Cramer's V-test, was performed to determine the possible agreement between the pair of analyses. The mean age of the sample, comprising 35 males and 50 females was 15 years and 3 months. Statistically significant relationships were found among seven sagittal parameters with p-value <0.001. Very strong correlation was found between AXB and AF-BF distance (r=0.924); and weak correlation between ANB and Beta angle (r=0.377). Wits appraisal showed the greatest coefficient of variability. Despite varying strengths of association, statistically significant correlations were found among seven methods for assessing sagittal jaw relationship. FABA and A-B plane may be used to predict the skeletal class in addition to the established ANB angle. (author)

Radio emission from the nova-like variable AC Cancri and the symbiotic variable AG Draconis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torbett, M.V.; Campbell, B.; Mount Wilson and Las Campanas Observatories, Pasadena, CA)

1987-01-01

Radio emission at 6 cm has been detected from the nova-like cataclysmic variable AC Cnc and the symbiotic variable AG Dra. The AC Cnc observation constitutes the first radio detection in this class of objects. The AG Dra source is probably resolved and appears to show asymmetric, extended structure. The radio emission can best be explained by thermal bremsstrahlung. 26 references

Analysis of Soccer Players’ Positional Variability During the 2012 UEFA European Championship: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Felipe Arruda; Santana, Juliana Exel; Vieira, Nathália Arnosti; Santiago, Paulo Roberto Pereira; Cunha, Sergio Augusto

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyse players’ positional variability during the 2012 UEFA European Championship by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to data gathered from heat maps posted on the UEFA website. We analysed the teams that reached the finals and semi-finals of the competition. The players’ 2D coordinates from each match were obtained by applying an image-processing algorithm to the heat maps. With all the players’ 2D coordinates for each match, we applied PCA to identify the directions of greatest variability. Then, two orthogonal segments were centred on each player’s mean position for all matches. The segments’ directions were driven by the eigenvectors of the PCA, and the length of each segment was defined as one standard deviation around the mean. Finally, an ellipse was circumscribed around both segments. To represent player variability, segment lengths and elliptical areas were analysed. The results demonstrate that Portugal exhibited the lowest variability, followed by Germany, Spain and Italy. Additionally, a graphical representation of every player’s ellipse provided insight into the teams’ organisational features throughout the competition. The presented study provides important information regarding soccer teams’ tactical strategy in high-level championships that allows coaches to better control team organisation on the pitch. PMID:26557206

Analysis of Soccer Players’ Positional Variability During the 2012 UEFA European Championship: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moura Felipe Arruda

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to analyse players’ positional variability during the 2012 UEFA European Championship by applying principal component analysis (PCA to data gathered from heat maps posted on the UEFA website. We analysed the teams that reached the finals and semi-finals of the competition. The players’ 2D coordinates from each match were obtained by applying an image-processing algorithm to the heat maps. With all the players’ 2D coordinates for each match, we applied PCA to identify the directions of greatest variability. Then, two orthogonal segments were centred on each player’s mean position for all matches. The segments’ directions were driven by the eigenvectors of the PCA, and the length of each segment was defined as one standard deviation around the mean. Finally, an ellipse was circumscribed around both segments. To represent player variability, segment lengths and elliptical areas were analysed. The results demonstrate that Portugal exhibited the lowest variability, followed by Germany, Spain and Italy. Additionally, a graphical representation of every player’s ellipse provided insight into the teams’ organisational features throughout the competition. The presented study provides important information regarding soccer teams’ tactical strategy in high-level championships that allows coaches to better control team organisation on the pitch.

Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

KAUST Repository

Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2017-01-01

earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant

Intra-Site Variability in the Still Bay Fauna at Blombos Cave: Implications for Explanatory Models of the Middle Stone Age Cultural and Technological Evolution.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanuel Discamps

Full Text Available To explain cultural and technological innovations in the Middle Stone Age (MSA of southern Africa, scholars invoke several factors. A major question in this research theme is whether MSA technocomplexes are adapted to a particular set of environmental conditions and subsistence strategies or, on the contrary, to a wide range of different foraging behaviours. While faunal studies provide key information for addressing these factors, most analyses do not assess intra-technocomplex variability of faunal exploitation (i.e. variability within MSA phases. In this study, we assess the spatial variability of the Still Bay fauna in one phase (M1 of the Blombos Cave sequence. Analyses of taxonomic composition, taphonomic alterations and combustion patterns reveal important faunal variability both across space (lateral variation in the post-depositional history of the deposits, spatial organisation of combustion features and over time (fine-scale diachronic changes throughout a single phase. Our results show how grouping material prior to zooarchaeological interpretations (e.g. by layer or phase can induce a loss of information. Finally, we discuss how multiple independent subdivisions of archaeological sequences can improve our understanding of both the timing of different changes (for example in technology, culture, subsistence, environment and how they may be inter-related.

Analysis of the spatial variability of crop yield and soil properties in small agricultural plots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vieira Sidney Rosa

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to assess spatial variability of soil properties and crop yield under no tillage as a function of time, in two soil/climate conditions in São Paulo State, Brazil. The two sites measured approximately one hectare each and were cultivated with crop sequences which included corn, soybean, cotton, oats, black oats, wheat, rye, rice and green manure. Soil fertility, soil physical properties and crop yield were measured in a 10-m grid. The soils were a Dusky Red Latossol (Oxisol and a Red Yellow Latossol (Ultisol. Soil sampling was performed in each field every two years after harvesting of the summer crop. Crop yield was measured at the end of each crop cycle, in 2 x 2.5 m sub plots. Data were analysed using semivariogram analysis and kriging interpolation for contour map generation. Yield maps were constructed in order to visually compare the variability of yields, the variability of the yield components and related soil properties. The results show that the factors affecting the variability of crop yield varies from one crop to another. The changes in yield from one year to another suggest that the causes of variability may change with time. The changes with time for the cross semivariogram between phosphorus in leaves and soybean yield is another evidence of this result.

Interpreting Multiple Linear Regression: A Guidebook of Variable Importance

Science.gov (United States)

Nathans, Laura L.; Oswald, Frederick L.; Nimon, Kim

2012-01-01

Multiple regression (MR) analyses are commonly employed in social science fields. It is also common for interpretation of results to typically reflect overreliance on beta weights, often resulting in very limited interpretations of variable importance. It appears that few researchers employ other methods to obtain a fuller understanding of what…

Seasonal variability of morphospaces in a subtropical fish assemblage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Correia Siliprandi

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Morphological characters of fishes are essential to evaluate the functional structure of assemblages, being morphological differences indicative of distinct ecological and adaptive strategies. The ecomorphology using morphospaces analyzes the structure of a fish assemblage through the values of intervals between homologous points positioned in anatomical structures of organisms phylogenetically related. These intervals can be quantified by morphogeometric and multivariate analyses. Seasonally during 2013-2014, standardized images were obtained from fishes sampled in Araça Bay, São Sebastião District, Brazil, using nine fishing gears which were grouped to verify the species occurrence variation. Qualitative approach (presence/absence data was used to carry out morphological analyses. A total of 27 landmarks and semilandmarks with anatomical, ecological and taxonomical meaning were positioned in species images of the left profile. Consensus figures were made embedding the intraspecific variability. Uniform components of the shape variation (RWs were generated. To build morphospaces, the first eight RWs were considered (explain more than 95% of the total morphological variability and were defined using Convex Hull. The RWs were also used to calculate the Morphological Richness (MR, Morphological Disparity (MD and Morphogeometric Index (EMI. The MD indicates the morphospace size and showed greater values in summer (0.051 and winter (0.047 as MR, related to the higher number of species (MRsummer=7.93; MRwinter=8.65. During all the year, the Araça Bay presents high diversity of fishes. Nevertheless, winter and summer seasons reached the highest diversity, periods when horizontal mobile fishes with elongated shapes arrive to the region, implying an increase of morphological diversity and shape’s redundancy (represented by the lowest values of EMI: winter=0.120; summer=0.123.

Gender differences of heart rate variability in healthy volunteers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleem, S.; Majeed, S.M.I.; Khan, M.A.

2012-01-01

Objective: To identify the basic values of heart rate variability in Pakistani population and to verify our hypothesis that there are gender differences in cardiovascular autonomic modulation. Methods: The descriptive cross sectional study based on convenience probability sampling was conducted at Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology/National Institute of Heart Diseases (AFIC/NIHD) Pakistan. The duration of the study was from December 2009 to July 2010. It involved 24-hour holter monitoring of 45 healthy individuals using holter electrocardiography (ECG) recorder. Heart rate variability was analysed in time (SDNN, SDANN, SDNNi, rMSSD, pNN50) and frequency domains (power, VLF, LF, and HF). Results: The time domain indices; SDNN (male=140 +- 36 ms vs. females=122 +- 33 ms; p =0.09), SDANN (male=123 +- 34 ms vs. females=111+- 34 ms; P= 0.23), SDNNi (male=64 +-19 ms vs. females=52 +- 14 ms; P= 0.03), and pNN50 (male=14 +- 10 ms vs. females=12 +- 7 ms; P= 0.43) were decreased in female volunteers when compared with males. Comparison of frequency domain indices; Total power (male=4041 +- 3150 ms/sup 2/ vs. females=2750 +- 1439 ms/sup 2/; P= 0.07), VLF (male=291 2675 ms/sup 2/ vs. females=1843 +- 928 ms/sup 2/; P= 0.06), LF (male=788 +- 397 ms/sup 2/ vs. females=556 +- 346 ms/sup 2/; P= 0.04) and HF (male=318 +- 251 ms/sup 2/ vs. females=31 277 ms/sup 2/; P= 0.94) amongst males and females showed attenuated heart rate variability in females. Of all the observed values, SDNNi and LF were found significantly (p <0.05) decreased in women. Conclusion: In healthy population, heart rate variability is low in women than men. It reflects sympathetic dominance in women in our population. (author)

Ecosystem variability in west Greenland waters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buch, E.; Pedersen, Søren Anker; Ribergaard, M. H.

2004-01-01

A review of the climate conditions off West Greenland during the past 50 years shows large variability in the atmospheric, oceanographic and sea-ice variables, as well as in fish stocks. A positive relationship is found between water temperature and the recruitment of cod and redfish, whereas the...

Constraint-led changes in internal variability in running.

Science.gov (United States)

Haudum, Anita; Birklbauer, Jürgen; Kröll, Josef; Müller, Erich

2012-01-01

We investigated the effect of a one-time application of elastic constraints on movement-inherent variability during treadmill running. Eleven males ran two 35-min intervals while surface EMG was measured. In one of two 35-min intervals, after 10 min of running without tubes, elastic tubes (between hip and heels) were attached, followed by another 5 min of running without tubes. To assess variability, stride-to-stride iEMG variability was calculated. Significant increases in variability (36 % to 74 %) were observed during tube running, whereas running without tubes after the tube running block showed no significant differences. Results show that elastic tubes affect variability on a muscular level despite the constant environmental conditions and underline the nervous system's adaptability to cope with somehow unpredictable constraints since stride duration was unaltered.

Neuronal variability in orbitofrontal cortex during economic decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Conen, Katherine E; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

2015-09-01

Neuroeconomic models assume that economic decisions are based on the activity of offer value cells in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), but testing this assertion has proven difficult. In principle, the decision made on a given trial should correlate with the stochastic fluctuations of these cells. However, this correlation, measured as a choice probability (CP), is small. Importantly, a neuron's CP reflects not only its individual contribution to the decision (termed readout weight), but also the intensity and the structure of correlated variability across the neuronal population (termed noise correlation). A precise mathematical relation between CPs, noise correlations, and readout weights was recently derived by Haefner and colleagues (Haefner RM, Gerwinn S, Macke JH, Bethge M. Nat Neurosci 16: 235-242, 2013) for a linear decision model. In this framework, concurrent measurements of noise correlations and CPs can provide quantitative information on how a population of cells contributes to a decision. Here we examined neuronal variability in the OFC of rhesus monkeys during economic decisions. Noise correlations had similar structure but considerably lower strength compared with those typically measured in sensory areas during perceptual decisions. In contrast, variability in the activity of individual cells was high and comparable to that recorded in other cortical regions. Simulation analyses based on Haefner's equation showed that noise correlations measured in the OFC combined with a plausible readout of offer value cells reproduced the experimental measures of CPs. In other words, the results obtained for noise correlations and those obtained for CPs taken together support the hypothesis that economic decisions are primarily based on the activity of offer value cells. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Altered Heart Rate Variability During Gaming in Internet Gaming Disorder.

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Lee, Deokjong; Hong, Sung Jun; Jung, Young-Chul; Park, Jinsick; Kim, In Young; Namkoong, Kee

2018-04-01

Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is characterized by addiction to online gaming and reduced executive control, particularly when individuals are exposed to gaming-related cues. Executive control can be measured as vagally mediated heart rate variability (HRV), which corresponds to variability in the time interval between heart beats. In this study, we investigated whether individuals with IGD have altered HRV while playing online games. We hypothesized that while gaming, individuals with IGD would exhibit phasic suppression of vagally mediated HRV, which would reflect executive control dysfunction during game play. To test this, we measured the changes of HRV when young males with IGD were engaged in real-time online gaming. The changes of HRV were associated with the severity of IGD assessed by self-reports and prefrontal gray matter volume (GMV) calculated by voxel-based morphometry. We included 23 IGD subjects and 18 controls in our analyses. Changes in HRV were not statistically different between IGD subjects and controls. Within the IGD group, however, subjects showed significant decreases in high-frequency (HF) HRV during gaming. Furthermore, the degree of decrease correlated with IGD severity and prefrontal GMV. Importantly, this phasic suppression of HF-HRV in response to gaming did not occur in control subjects. In conclusion, young males with IGD showed an altered HRV response while playing an online game, reflecting their difficulties in executive control over gaming. The dynamics between executive control and reward seeking may be out of balance during game play in IGD.

Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

2017-12-01

The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

Analysis of the variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in CMIP5

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, Waheed; Leung, Wai-Nang; Hannachi, Abdel

2017-09-01

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a dominant feature of extratropical climate and its variability is associated with the large-scale changes in the surface climate of midlatitudes. Variability of this jet is analysed in a set of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) over the North Atlantic region. The CMIP5 simulations for the 20th century climate (Historical) are compared with the ERA40 reanalysis data. The jet latitude index, wind speed and jet persistence are analysed in order to evaluate 11 CMIP5 GCMs and to compare them with those from CMIP3 integrations. The phase of mean seasonal cycle of jet latitude and wind speed from historical runs of CMIP5 GCMs are comparable to ERA40. The wind speed mean seasonal cycle by CMIP5 GCMs is overestimated in winter months. A positive (negative) jet latitude anomaly in historical simulations relative to ERA40 is observed in summer (winter). The ensemble mean of jet latitude biases in historical simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to ERA40 are -2.43° and -1.79° respectively. Thus indicating improvements in CMIP5 in comparison to the CMIP3 GCMs. The comparison of historical and future simulations of CMIP5 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2076-2099, shows positive anomalies in the jet latitude implying a poleward shifted jet. The results from the analysed models offer no specific improvements in simulating the trimodality of the eddy-driven jet.

Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Mark; Douglass, Anne; Newman, Paul; Nash, Eric; Witte, Jacquelyn; Ziemke, Jerry

2011-01-01

The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

Variability of chemical analysis of reinforcing bar produced in Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Salman, A.; Djavanroodi, F.

2018-04-01

In view of the importance and demanding roles of steel rebar’s in the reinforced concrete structures, accurate information on the properties of the steels is important at the design stage. In the steelmaking process, production variations in chemical composition are unavoidable. The aim of this work is to study the variability of the chemical composition of reinforcing steel produced throughout the Saudi Arabia and asses the quality of steel rebar’s acoording to ASTM A615. 68 samples of ASTM A615 Grade 60 from different manufacturers were collected and tested using the Spectrometer test to obtain Chemical Compositions. EasyFit (5.6) software is utilized to conducted statistical analysis. Chemical compositions distributions and, control charts are generated for the compositions. Results showed that some compositions are above the upper line of the control chart. Finally, the analyses show that less than 3% of the steel failed to meet minimum ASTM standards for chemical composition.

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

Investigation on Capacitor Switching Transient Limiter with a Three phase Variable Resistance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naderi, Seyed Behzad; Jafari, Mehdi; Zandnia, Amir

2017-01-01

In this paper, a capacitor switching transient limiter based on a three phase variable resistance is proposed. The proposed structure eliminates the capacitor switching transient current and over-voltage by introducing a variable resistance to the current path with its special switching pattern...... transients on capacitor after bypassing. Analytic Analyses for this structure in transient cases are presented in details and simulations are performed by MATLAB software to prove its effectiveness....

RADIO VARIABILITY IN SEYFERT NUCLEI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mundell, C. G.; Ferruit, P.; Nagar, N.; Wilson, A. S.

2009-01-01

Comparison of 8.4 GHz radio images of a sample of eleven, early-type Seyfert galaxies with previous observations reveals possible variation in the nuclear radio flux density in five of them over a seven year period. Four Seyferts (NGC 2110, NGC 3081, MCG -6-30-15, and NGC 5273) show a decline in their 8.4 GHz nuclear flux density between 1992 and 1999, while one (NGC 4117) shows an increase; the flux densities of the remaining six Seyferts (Mrk 607, NGC 1386, Mrk 620, NGC 3516, NGC 4968, and NGC 7465) have remained constant over this period. New images of MCG -5-23-16 are also presented. We find no correlation between radio variability and nuclear radio luminosity or Seyfert nuclear type, although the sample is small and dominated by type 2 Seyferts. Instead, a possible correlation between the presence of nuclear radio variability and the absence of hundred parsec-scale radio emission is seen, with four out of five marginally resolved or unresolved nuclei showing a change in nuclear flux density, while five out of six extended sources show no nuclear variability despite having unresolved nuclear sources. NGC 2110 is the only source in our sample with significant extended radio structure and strong nuclear variability (∼38% decline in nuclear flux density over seven years). The observed nuclear flux variability indicates significant changes are likely to have occurred in the structure of the nucleus on scales smaller than the VLA beam size (i.e., within the central ∼0.''1 (15 pc)), between the two epochs, possibly due to the appearance and fading of new components or shocks in the jet, consistent with previous detection of subparsec-scale nuclear structure in this Seyfert. Our results suggest that all Seyferts may exhibit variation in their nuclear radio flux density at 8.4 GHz, but that variability is more easily recognized in compact sources in which emission from the variable nucleus is not diluted by unresolved, constant flux density radio jet emission

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry De-Graft Acquah

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Déry, Stephen J; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A; Owens, Philip N; Parkes, Margot W; Petticrew, Ellen L

2012-01-01

This study examines the 1911–2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in

The coherent variability of African river flows : composite climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The composite structure of the ocean and atmosphere around Africa is studied in the context of river flow variability. Annual streamflows are analysed for the Blue and White Nile, Congo, Niger, Senegal, Zambezi, and Orange Rivers, and inflow to Lake Malawi. Spectral energy is concentrated in 6.6- and 2.4-year bands.

Methodological challenges in carbohydrate analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary Beth Hall

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Carbohydrates can provide up to 80% of the dry matter in animal diets, yet their specific evaluation for research and diet formulation is only now becoming a focus in the animal sciences. Partitioning of dietary carbohydrates for nutritional purposes should reflect differences in digestion and fermentation characteristics and effects on animal performance. Key challenges to designating nutritionally important carbohydrate fractions include classifying the carbohydrates in terms of nutritional characteristics, and selecting analytical methods that describe the desired fraction. The relative lack of information on digestion characteristics of various carbohydrates and their interactions with other fractions in diets means that fractions will not soon be perfectly established. Developing a system of carbohydrate analysis that could be used across animal species could enhance the utility of analyses and amount of data we can obtain on dietary effects of carbohydrates. Based on quantities present in diets and apparent effects on animal performance, some nutritionally important classes of carbohydrates that may be valuable to measure include sugars, starch, fructans, insoluble fiber, and soluble fiber. Essential to selection of methods for these fractions is agreement on precisely what carbohydrates should be included in each. Each of these fractions has analyses that could potentially be used to measure them, but most of the available methods have weaknesses that must be evaluated to see if they are fatal and the assay is unusable, or if the assay still may be made workable. Factors we must consider as we seek to analyze carbohydrates to describe diets: Does the assay accurately measure the desired fraction? Is the assay for research, regulatory, or field use (affects considerations of acceptable costs and throughput? What are acceptable accuracy and variability of measures? Is the assay robust (enhances accuracy of values? For some carbohydrates, we

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Climate variability and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: a study of glaucous gulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Bustnes, Jan O; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Verreault, Jonathan

2010-04-15

The impact of climate variability on temporal trends (1997-2006) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs; polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], and oxychlordane) was assessed in glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding in the Norwegian Arctic (n = 240). The Arctic Oscillation (AO: an index of sea-level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere above 20 degrees N) with different time lags was used as a climate proxy. The estimated concentrations of POPs in glaucous gull blood/plasma declined substantially (16-60%) over the time period. Multiple regression analyses showed that the rates of decline for POPs were correlated to climate variation when controlling for potential confounding variables (sex and body condition). More specifically AO in the current winter showed negative associations with POP concentrations, whereas the relationships with AO measurements from the year preceding POP measurements (AO preceding summer and AO preceding winter) were positive. Hence, gulls had relatively higher POP concentrations in breeding seasons following years with high air transport toward the Arctic. Furthermore, the impact of AO appeared to be stronger for HCB, a relatively volatile compound with high transport potential, compared to heavy chlorinated PCB congeners. This study thus suggests that predicted climate change should be considered in assessments of future temporal trends of POPs in Arctic wildlife.

Statistical analyses of scatterplots to identify important factors in large-scale simulations, 1: Review and comparison of techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Helton, J.C.

1999-01-01

Procedures for identifying patterns in scatterplots generated in Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses are described and illustrated. These procedures attempt to detect increasingly complex patterns in scatterplots and involve the identification of (i) linear relationships with correlation coefficients, (ii) monotonic relationships with rank correlation coefficients, (iii) trends in central tendency as defined by means, medians and the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, (iv) trends in variability as defined by variances and interquartile ranges, and (v) deviations from randomness as defined by the chi-square statistic. A sequence of example analyses with a large model for two-phase fluid flow illustrates how the individual procedures can differ in the variables that they identify as having effects on particular model outcomes. The example analyses indicate that the use of a sequence of procedures is a good analysis strategy and provides some assurance that an important effect is not overlooked

Variable camber wing based on pneumatic artificial muscles

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Weilong; Liu, Libo; Chen, Yijin; Leng, Jinsong

2009-07-01

As a novel bionic actuator, pneumatic artificial muscle has high power to weight ratio. In this paper, a variable camber wing with the pneumatic artificial muscle is developed. Firstly, the experimental setup to measure the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle is designed. The relationship between the static output force and the air pressure is investigated. Experimental result shows the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle decreases nonlinearly with increasing contraction ratio. Secondly, the finite element model of the variable camber wing is developed. Numerical results show that the tip displacement of the trailing-edge increases linearly with increasing external load and limited with the maximum static output force of pneumatic artificial muscles. Finally, the variable camber wing model is manufactured to validate the variable camber concept. Experimental result shows that the wing camber increases with increasing air pressure and that it compare very well with the FEM result.

New Variable Stars in the KP2001 Catalog from the Data Base of the Northern Sky Variability Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Petrosyan, G. V.

2018-03-01

The optical variability of stars in the KP2001 catalog is studied. Monitor data from the automatic Northern Sky Variability Survey (NSVS) are used for this purpose. Of the 257 objects that were studied, 5 are Mira Ceti variables (mirids), 33 are semiregular (SR), and 108 are irregular variables (Ir). The light curves of the other objects show no noticeable signs of variability. For the first time, 11 stars are assigned to the semiregular and 105 stars to the irregular variables. Of the irregular variables, the light curves of two, No. 8 and No. 194, are distinct and are similar to the curves for eclipsing variables. The periods and amplitudes of the mirids and semiregular variables are determined using the "VStar" program package from AAVSO. The absolute stellar magnitudes M K and distances are also estimated, along with the mass loss for the mirids. The behavior of stars from KP2001 in 2MASS and WISE color diagrams is examined.

Anterolateral Ligament of the Knee Shows Variable Anatomy in Pediatric Specimens.

Science.gov (United States)

Shea, Kevin G; Milewski, Matthew D; Cannamela, Peter C; Ganley, Theodore J; Fabricant, Peter D; Terhune, Elizabeth B; Styhl, Alexandra C; Anderson, Allen F; Polousky, John D

2017-06-01

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction failure rates are highest in youth athletes. The role of the anterolateral ligament in rotational knee stability is of increasing interest, and several centers are exploring combined ACL and anterolateral ligament reconstruction for these young patients. Literature on the anterolateral ligament of the knee is sparse in regard to the pediatric population. A single study on specimens younger than age 5 years demonstrated the presence of the anterolateral ligament in only one of eight specimens; therefore, much about the prevalence and anatomy of the anterolateral ligament in pediatric specimens remains unknown. We sought to (1) investigate the presence or absence of the anterolateral ligament in prepubescent anatomic specimens; (2) describe the anatomic relationship of the anterolateral ligament to the lateral collateral ligament; and (3) describe the anatomic relationship between the anterolateral ligament and the physis. Fourteen skeletally immature knee specimens (median age, 8 years; range, 7-11 years) were dissected (12 male, two female specimens). The posterolateral structures were identified in all specimens, including the lateral collateral ligament and popliteus tendon. The presence or absence of the anterolateral ligament was documented in each specimen, along with origin, insertion, and dimensions, when applicable. The relationship of the anterolateral ligament origin to the lateral collateral ligament origin was recorded. The anterolateral ligament was identified in nine of 14 specimens. The tibial attachment point was consistently located in the same region on the proximal tibia, between the fibular head and Gerdy's tubercle; however, the femoral origin of the anterolateral ligament showed considerable variation with respect to the lateral collateral ligament origin. The median femoral origin of the anterolateral ligament was 10 mm (first interquartile 6 mm, third interquartile 13) distal to the distal

The effects of spatial variability of the aggressiveness of soil on system reliability of corroding underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraoui, Yacine; Chateauneuf, Alaa

2016-01-01

In this paper, a probabilistic methodology is presented for assessing the time-variant reliability of corroded underground pipelines subjected to space-variant soil aggressiveness. The Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to model the spatial variability of soil as a correlated stochastic field. The pipeline is considered as a series system for which the component and system failure probabilities are computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The probabilistic model provides a realistic time and space modelling of stochastic variations, leading to appropriate estimation of the lifetime distribution. The numerical analyses allow us to investigate the impact of various parameters on the reliability of underground pipelines, such as the soil aggressiveness, the pipe design variables, the soil correlation length and the pipeline length. The results show that neglecting the effect of spatial variability leads to pessimistic estimation of the residual lifetime and can lead to condemn prematurely the structure. - Highlights: • The role of soil heterogeneity in pipeline reliability assessment has been shown. • The impact of pipe length and soil correlation length has been examined. • The effect of the uncertainties related to design variables has been observed. • Pipe thickness design for homogeneous reliability has been proposed.

Statistical methods for analysing the relationship between bank profitability and liquidity

OpenAIRE

Boguslaw Guzik

2006-01-01

The article analyses the most popular methods for the empirical estimation of the relationship between bank profitability and liquidity. Owing to the fact that profitability depends on various factors (both economic and non-economic), a simple correlation coefficient, two-dimensional (profitability/liquidity) graphs or models where profitability depends only on liquidity variable do not provide good and reliable results. Quite good results can be obtained only when multifactorial profitabilit...

The Effect of Latent Binary Variables on the Uncertainty of the Prediction of a Dichotomous Outcome Using Logistic Regression Based Propensity Score Matching.

Science.gov (United States)

Szekér, Szabolcs; Vathy-Fogarassy, Ágnes

2018-01-01

Logistic regression based propensity score matching is a widely used method in case-control studies to select the individuals of the control group. This method creates a suitable control group if all factors affecting the output variable are known. However, if relevant latent variables exist as well, which are not taken into account during the calculations, the quality of the control group is uncertain. In this paper, we present a statistics-based research in which we try to determine the relationship between the accuracy of the logistic regression model and the uncertainty of the dependent variable of the control group defined by propensity score matching. Our analyses show that there is a linear correlation between the fit of the logistic regression model and the uncertainty of the output variable. In certain cases, a latent binary explanatory variable can result in a relative error of up to 70% in the prediction of the outcome variable. The observed phenomenon calls the attention of analysts to an important point, which must be taken into account when deducting conclusions.

The infrared variability and nature of symbiotic stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feast, M.W.; Catchpole, R.M.; Whitelock, P.A.; Carter, B.S.; Roberts, G.

1983-01-01

Infrared variability and spectra show that the symbiotic systems (He 2-106, He 2-38, He 2-34) contain Mira variable components. The first two also show a longer term infrared variability. It is suggested that this is due to variable dust obscuration (as in R Aqr). The phenomenon is then too frequent for the dust clouds to be confined to the orbital planes of the binary systems. Seven Miras in symbiotics have known periods which range from 370 to 580 days, suggesting a greater frequency of long-period Miras in symbiotics than in the general field. Symbiotic Miras have dust excesses with colour temperatures near 1000 K. Observations of four other symbiotic systems (Pe 2-3, He 2-87, H 2-5, AG Peg) are consistent with their containing non-variable or low amplitude M-type components. (author)

Multivariate differential analyses of adolescents' experiences of aggression in families

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Myburgh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Aggression is part of South African society and has implications for the mental health of persons living in South Africa. If parents are aggressive adolescents are also likely to be aggressive and that will impact negatively on their mental health. In this article the nature and extent of adolescents' experiences of aggression and aggressive behaviour in the family are investigated. A deductive explorative quantitative approach was followed. Aggression is reasoned to be dependent on aspects such as self-concept, moral reasoning, communication, frustration tolerance and family relationships. To analyse the data from questionnaires of 101 families (95 adolescents, 95 mothers and 91 fathers Cronbach Alpha, various consecutive first and second order factor analyses, correlations, multiple regression, MANOVA, ANOVA and Scheffè/ Dunnett tests were used. It was found that aggression correlated negatively with the independent variables; and the correlations between adolescents and their parents were significant. Regression analyses indicated that different predictors predicted aggression. Furthermore, differences between adolescents and their parents indicated that the experienced levels of aggression between adolescents and their parents were small. Implications for education are given.

Multigene analyses resolve early diverging lineages in the Rhodymeniophycidae (Florideophyceae, Rhodophyta).

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Gary W; Filloramo, Gina; Dixon, Kyatt; Le Gall, Line; Maggs, Christine A; Kraft, Gerald T

2016-08-01

Multigene phylogenetic analyses were directed at resolving the earliest divergences in the red algal subclass Rhodymeniophycidae. The inclusion of key taxa (new to science and/or previously lacking molecular data), additional sequence data (SSU, LSU, EF2, rbcL, COI-5P), and phylogenetic analyses removing the most variable sites (site stripping) have provided resolution for the first time at these deep nodes. The earliest diverging lineage within the subclass was the enigmatic Catenellopsis oligarthra from New Zealand (Catenellopsidaceae), which is here placed in the Catenellopsidales ord. nov. In our analyses, Atractophora hypnoides was not allied with the other included Bonnemaisoniales, but resolved as sister to the Peyssonneliales, and is here assigned to Atractophoraceae fam. nov. in the Atractophorales ord. nov. Inclusion of Acrothesaurum gemellifilum gen. et sp. nov. from Tasmania has greatly improved our understanding of the Acrosymphytales, to which we assign three families, the Acrosymphytaceae, Acrothesauraceae fam. nov. and Schimmelmanniaceae fam. nov. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

Unemployment Impairs Mental Health: Meta-Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Karsten I.; Moser, Klaus

2009-01-01

The effect of unemployment on mental health was examined with meta-analytic methods across 237 cross-sectional and 87 longitudinal studies. The average overall effect size was d = 0.51 with unemployed persons showing more distress than employed persons. A significant difference was found for several indicator variables of mental health (mixed…

Assessing the validity of road safety evaluation studies by analysing causal chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Elvik, Rune

2003-09-01

This paper discusses how the validity of road safety evaluation studies can be assessed by analysing causal chains. A causal chain denotes the path through which a road safety measure influences the number of accidents. Two cases are examined. One involves chemical de-icing of roads (salting). The intended causal chain of this measure is: spread of salt --> removal of snow and ice from the road surface --> improved friction --> shorter stopping distance --> fewer accidents. A Norwegian study that evaluated the effects of salting on accident rate provides information that describes this causal chain. This information indicates that the study overestimated the effect of salting on accident rate, and suggests that this estimate is influenced by confounding variables the study did not control for. The other case involves a traffic club for children. The intended causal chain in this study was: join the club --> improve knowledge --> improve behaviour --> reduce accident rate. In this case, results are rather messy, which suggests that the observed difference in accident rate between members and non-members of the traffic club is not primarily attributable to membership in the club. The two cases show that by analysing causal chains, one may uncover confounding factors that were not adequately controlled in a study. Lack of control for confounding factors remains the most serious threat to the validity of road safety evaluation studies.

Development and initial evaluation of a spectral microdensitometer for analysing radiochromic films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, K Y; Fung, K L; Kwok, C S

2004-01-01

Radiation dose deposited on a radiochromic film is considered as a dose image. A precise image extraction system with commensurate capabilities is required to measure the transmittance of the image and translate it to radiation dose. This paper describes the development of a spectral microdensitometer which has been designed to achieve this goal under the conditions of (a) the linearity and sensitivity of the dose response curve of the radiochromic film being highly dependent on the wavelength of the analysing light, and (b) the inherent high spatial resolution of the film. The microdensitometer consists of a monochromator which provides an analysing light of variable wavelength, a film tray on a high-precision scanning stage, a transmission microscope coupled to a thermoelectrically cooled CCD camera, a microcomputer and corresponding interfaces. The measurement of the transmittance of the radiochromic film is made at the two absorption peaks with maximum sensitivities. The high spatial resolution of the instrument, of the order of micrometres, is achieved through the use of the microscope combined with a measure-and-step technique to cover the whole film. The performance of the instrument in regard to the positional accuracy, system reproducibility and dual-peak film calibration was evaluated. The results show that the instrument fulfils the design objective of providing a precise image extraction system for radiochromic films with micrometre spatial resolution and sensitive dose response

Development and initial evaluation of a spectral microdensitometer for analysing radiochromic films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, K Y [Department of Optometry and Radiography, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong (China); Fung, K L [Department of Optometry and Radiography, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong (China); Kwok, C S [Department of Radioimmunotherapy, City of Hope National Medical Centre, Duarte, CA 91010 (United States)

2004-11-21

Radiation dose deposited on a radiochromic film is considered as a dose image. A precise image extraction system with commensurate capabilities is required to measure the transmittance of the image and translate it to radiation dose. This paper describes the development of a spectral microdensitometer which has been designed to achieve this goal under the conditions of (a) the linearity and sensitivity of the dose response curve of the radiochromic film being highly dependent on the wavelength of the analysing light, and (b) the inherent high spatial resolution of the film. The microdensitometer consists of a monochromator which provides an analysing light of variable wavelength, a film tray on a high-precision scanning stage, a transmission microscope coupled to a thermoelectrically cooled CCD camera, a microcomputer and corresponding interfaces. The measurement of the transmittance of the radiochromic film is made at the two absorption peaks with maximum sensitivities. The high spatial resolution of the instrument, of the order of micrometres, is achieved through the use of the microscope combined with a measure-and-step technique to cover the whole film. The performance of the instrument in regard to the positional accuracy, system reproducibility and dual-peak film calibration was evaluated. The results show that the instrument fulfils the design objective of providing a precise image extraction system for radiochromic films with micrometre spatial resolution and sensitive dose response.

Planning future care services: Analyses of investments in Norwegian municipalities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagen, Terje P; Tingvold, Laila

2018-06-01

To analyse whether the Norwegian Central Government's goal of subsidizing 12,000 places in nursing homes or sheltered housing using an earmarked grant was reached and to determine towards which group of users the planned investments were targeted. Data from the investment plans at municipal level were provided by the Norwegian Housing Bank and linked to variables describing the municipalities' financial situation as well as variables describing the local needs for services provided by Statistics Norway. Using regression analyses we estimated the associations between municipal characteristics and planned investments in total and by type of care place. The Norwegian Central Government reached its goal of giving subsidies to 12,000 new or rebuilt places in nursing homes and sheltered housing. A total of 54% of the subsidies (6878 places) were given to places in nursing homes. About 7500 places were available by the end of the planning period and the rest were under construction. About 50% of the places were planned for user groups aged Investments in nursing homes were correlated with the share of the population older than 80 years and investments in sheltered houses were correlated with the share of users with intellectual disabilities. Earmarked grants to municipalities can be adequate measures to affect local resource allocation and thereby stimulate investments in future care. With the current institutional setup the municipalities adapt investments to local needs.

IDEA: Interactive Display for Evolutionary Analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlton Jane M

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The availability of complete genomic sequences for hundreds of organisms promises to make obtaining genome-wide estimates of substitution rates, selective constraints and other molecular evolution variables of interest an increasingly important approach to addressing broad evolutionary questions. Two of the programs most widely used for this purpose are codeml and baseml, parts of the PAML (Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood suite. A significant drawback of these programs is their lack of a graphical user interface, which can limit their user base and considerably reduce their efficiency. Results We have developed IDEA (Interactive Display for Evolutionary Analyses, an intuitive graphical input and output interface which interacts with PHYLIP for phylogeny reconstruction and with codeml and baseml for molecular evolution analyses. IDEA's graphical input and visualization interfaces eliminate the need to edit and parse text input and output files, reducing the likelihood of errors and improving processing time. Further, its interactive output display gives the user immediate access to results. Finally, IDEA can process data in parallel on a local machine or computing grid, allowing genome-wide analyses to be completed quickly. Conclusion IDEA provides a graphical user interface that allows the user to follow a codeml or baseml analysis from parameter input through to the exploration of results. Novel options streamline the analysis process, and post-analysis visualization of phylogenies, evolutionary rates and selective constraint along protein sequences simplifies the interpretation of results. The integration of these functions into a single tool eliminates the need for lengthy data handling and parsing, significantly expediting access to global patterns in the data.

Sex as a Biological Variable: Who, What, When, Why, and How.

Science.gov (United States)

Bale, Tracy L; Epperson, C Neill

2017-01-01

The inclusion of sex as a biological variable in research is absolutely essential for improving our understanding of disease mechanisms contributing to risk and resilience. Studies focusing on examining sex differences have demonstrated across many levels of analyses and stages of brain development and maturation that males and females can differ significantly. This review will discuss examples of animal models and clinical studies to provide guidance and reference for the inclusion of sex as an important biological variable relevant to a Neuropsychopharmacology audience.

Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Kreibich

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ragosta

2000-06-01

Full Text Available Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram, a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal fluctuations are characterised by two time scale ranges in which self-potential variability appears to follow slightly different dynamical behaviours. Results point to the presence of fractal, non stationary features expressing a long term correlation with scaling coefficients which are the clue of stabilising mechanisms. In the scale ranges in which the series show scale invariant behaviour, self-potentials evolve like fractional Brownian motions with anticorrelated increments typical of processes regulated by negative feedback mechanisms (antipersistence. On scales below about 6 h the strength of such an antipersistence appears to be slightly greater than that observed on larger time scales where the fluctuations are less efficiently stabilised.

CALIDAD DE RED COMO VARIABLE MODULADORA DE DEPRESIÓN EN ADOLESCENTES ESTUDIANTES DE NIVEL MEDIO/ QUALITY NETWORK AS MODERATOR VARIABLE OF DEPRESSION IN TEENAGERS HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rocío Soria Trujano

2010-04-01

Full Text Available RESUMENEn un estudio previo (Nava & Vega, 2008 quisimos probar si alguna alteración emocional (depresión podía seratribuida a la lejanía de la red familiar, los análisis mostraron que sí era posible encontrar diferencias entre jóvenes recluidosy estudiantes universitarios. Sin embargo, los resultados del estudio anterior dejaban una duda, ¿sería posible encontrardepresión aun cuando no hay ausencia de familia de origen? Y, ¿qué variables explicarían tal fenómeno, en caso de encontrardiferencias? Por lo anterior, decidimos realizar un estudio en el cual los participantes fueran adolescentes sin ningunacarencia de familia o alteración psicológica aparente. Evaluamos diferentes variables: apoyo social, estrés, calidad de redy depresión. Los resultados mostraron que sí fue posible replicar los resultados del primer estudio, a pesar de que noexistieron alteraciones emocionales o de red graves. Las conclusiones son discutidas a la luz de los hallazgos empíricos yteóricos correspondientes.ABSTRACTIn a previous study (Nava & Vega, 2008 we wanted to prove if some emotional alterations (depression could beattributed to the remoteness of the family network, the analyses showed that it was possible to find differences betweenyoung adults to imprison and university students. Nevertheless, the results of the previous study left a doubt, would it bepossible to find depression even though there is no absence of origin of family? And what variable would explain suchphenomenon, in case of finding differences? By the previous thing, we decided to make a study where the participants wereadolescents without deficiency of family or apparent psychological alteration. We evaluated different variables, socialsupport, stress, quality of network and depression. The results showed that it was possible to talk back the results of the firststudy, although emotional alterations or of network did not exist seriously. The conclusions are discussed to the

Major urinary protein (MUP) profiles show dynamic changes rather than individual ‘barcode’ signatures

Science.gov (United States)

Thoß, M.; Luzynski, K.C.; Ante, M.; Miller, I.; Penn, D.J.

2016-01-01

House mice (Mus musculus) produce a variable number of major urinary proteins (MUPs), and studies suggest that each individual produces a unique MUP profile that provides a distinctive odor signature controlling individual and kin recognition. This ‘barcode hypothesis’ requires that MUP urinary profiles show high individual variability within populations and also high individual consistency over time, but tests of these assumptions are lacking. We analyzed urinary MUP profiles of 66 wild-caught house mice from eight populations using isoelectric focusing. We found that MUP profiles of wild male house mice are not individually unique, and though they were highly variable, closer inspection revealed that the variation strongly depended on MUP band type. The prominent (‘major) bands were surprisingly homogenous (and hence most MUPs are not polymorphic), but we also found inconspicuous (‘minor’) bands that were highly variable and therefore potential candidates for individual fingerprints. We also examined changes in urinary MUP profiles of 58 males over time (from 6 to 24 weeks of age), and found that individual MUP profiles and MUP concentration were surprisingly dynamic, and showed significant changes after puberty and during adulthood. Contrary to what we expected, however, the minor bands were the most variable over time, thus no good candidates for individual fingerprints. Although MUP profiles do not provide individual fingerprints, we found that MUP profiles were more similar among siblings than non-kin despite considerable fluctuation. Our findings show that MUP profiles are not highly stable over time, they do not show strong individual clustering, and thus challenge the barcode hypothesis. Within-individual dynamics of MUP profiles indicate a different function of MUPs in individual recognition than previously assumed and advocate an alternative hypothesis (‘dynamic changes’ hypothesis). PMID:26973837

The Use of Statistical Process Control Tools for Analysing Financial Statements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niezgoda Janusz

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This article presents the proposed application of one type of the modified Shewhart control charts in the monitoring of changes in the aggregated level of financial ratios. The control chart x̅ has been used as a basis of analysis. The examined variable from the sample in the mentioned chart is the arithmetic mean. The author proposes to substitute it with a synthetic measure that is determined and based on the selected ratios. As the ratios mentioned above, are expressed in different units and characters, the author applies standardisation. The results of selected comparative analyses have been presented for both bankrupts and non-bankrupts. They indicate the possibility of using control charts as an auxiliary tool in financial analyses.

Sorption analyses in materials science: selected oxides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuller, E.L. Jr.; Condon, J.B.; Eager, M.H.; Jones, L.L.

1981-01-01

Physical adsorption studies have been shown to be extremely valuable in studying the chemistry and structure of dispersed materials. Many processes rely on the access to the large amount of surface made available by the high degree of dispersion. Conversely, there are many applications where consolidation of the dispersed solids is required. Several systems (silica gel, alumina catalysts, mineralogic alumino-silicates, and yttrium oxide plasters) have been studied to show the type and amount of chemical and structural information that can be obtained. Some review of current theories is given and additional concepts are developed based on statistical and thermodynamic arguments. The results are applied to sorption data to show that detailed sorption analyses are extremely useful and can provide valuable information that is difficult to obtain by any other means. Considerable emphasis has been placed on data analyses and interpretation of a nonclassical nature to show the potential of such studies that is often not recognized nor utilized

Essential Oil Variability and Biological Activities of Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl) Mast. Wood According to the Extraction Time.

Science.gov (United States)

Djouahri, Abderrahmane; Saka, Boualem; Boudarene, Lynda; Baaliouamer, Aoumeur

2016-12-01

In the present work, the hydrodistillation (HD) and microwave-assisted hydrodistillation (MAHD) kinetics of essential oil (EO) extracted from Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl) Mast. wood was conducted, in order to assess the impact of extraction time and technique on chemical composition and biological activities. Gas chromatography (GC) and GC/mass spectrometry analyses showed significant differences between the extracted EOs, where each family class or component presents a specific kinetic according to extraction time, technique and especially for the major components: camphene, linalool, cedrol, carvacrol and α-acorenol. Furthermore, our findings showed a high variability for both antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities, where each activity has a specific effect according to extraction time and technique. The highlighted variability reflects the high impact of extraction time and technique on chemical composition and biological activities, which led to conclude that we should select EOs to be investigated carefully depending on extraction time and technique, in order to isolate the bioactive components or to have the best quality of EO in terms of biological activities and preventive effects in food. © 2016 Wiley-VHCA AG, Zurich, Switzerland.

Study of the cycle variability at an automotive diesel engine fuelled with LPG

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nemoianu Liviu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Liquid Petroleum Gas is a viable alternative fuel for diesel engines due to its ability of emissions and fuel consumption reduction. Combustion variability at LPG diesel engine is analysed for maximum pressure, maximum pressure angle and indicated mean effective pressure. Combustion variability is influenced by the increase of LPG cycle dose which lead to the increase of the cycle variability coefficients values, but without exceeding the admitted values that provide diesel engine reliability. Analysis of COV values establishes the maximum admitted values of LPG cycle.

Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by Modified initial guess Variational ... variable coefficient fourth order parabolic partial differential equations. The new method shows rapid convergence to the exact solution.

Exploration des variantes d'artefacts logiciels pour une analyse et une migration vers des lignes de produits

OpenAIRE

Martinez , Jabier

2016-01-01

Software Product Lines (SPLs) enable the derivation of a family of products based on variability management techniques. Inspired by the manufacturing industry, SPLs use feature configurations to satisfy different customer needs, along with reusable assets to allow systematic reuse. Capitalizing on existing variants by extracting the common and varying elements is referred to as extractive approaches for SPL adoption. Feature identification is needed to analyse the domain variability. Also, to...

Logistic regression and multiple classification analyses to explore risk factors of under-5 mortality in bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhowmik, K.R.; Islam, S.

2016-01-01

Logistic regression (LR) analysis is the most common statistical methodology to find out the determinants of childhood mortality. However, the significant predictors cannot be ranked according to their influence on the response variable. Multiple classification (MC) analysis can be applied to identify the significant predictors with a priority index which helps to rank the predictors. The main objective of the study is to find the socio-demographic determinants of childhood mortality at neonatal, post-neonatal, and post-infant period by fitting LR model as well as to rank those through MC analysis. The study is conducted using the data of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 where birth and death information of children were collected from their mothers. Three dichotomous response variables are constructed from children age at death to fit the LR and MC models. Socio-economic and demographic variables significantly associated with the response variables separately are considered in LR and MC analyses. Both the LR and MC models identified the same significant predictors for specific childhood mortality. For both the neonatal and child mortality, biological factors of children, regional settings, and parents socio-economic status are found as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd significant groups of predictors respectively. Mother education and household environment are detected as major significant predictors of post-neonatal mortality. This study shows that MC analysis with or without LR analysis can be applied to detect determinants with rank which help the policy makers taking initiatives on a priority basis. (author)

Identification of low variability textural features for heterogeneity quantification of 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortes-Rodicio, J; Sanchez-Merino, G; Garcia-Fidalgo, M A; Tobalina-Larrea, I

To identify those textural features that are insensitive to both technical and biological factors in order to standardise heterogeneity studies on 18 F-FDG PET imaging. Two different studies were performed. First, nineteen series from a cylindrical phantom filled with different 18 F-FDG activity concentration were acquired and reconstructed using three different protocols. Seventy-two texture features were calculated inside a circular region of interest. The variability of each feature was obtained. Second, the data for 15 patients showing non-pathological liver were acquired. Anatomical and physiological features such as patient's weight, height, body mass index, metabolic active volume, blood glucose level, SUV and SUV standard deviation were also recorded. A liver covering region of interest was delineated and low variability textural features calculated in each patient. Finally, a multivariate Spearman's correlation analysis between biological factors and texture features was performed. Only eight texture features analysed show small variability (feature is, indeed, correlated (Ptextural features that are correlated with neither technical nor biological factors are run percentage, short-zone emphasis and intensity, making them suitable for quantifying functional changes or classifying patients. Other textural features are correlated with technical and biological factors and are, therefore, a source of errors if used for this purpose. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somot, S

2005-12-15

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Examining Computer Gaming Addiction in Terms of Different Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Kurt, Adile Askim; Dogan, Ezgi; Erdogmus, Yasemin Kahyaoglu; Emiroglu, Bulent Gursel

2018-01-01

The computer gaming addiction is one of the newer concepts that young generations face and can be defined as the excessive and problematic use of computer games leading to social and/or emotional problems. The purpose of this study is to analyse through variables the computer gaming addiction levels of secondary school students. The research was…

Do North Atlantic eels show parallel patterns of spatially varying selection?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ulrik, Malene G.; Pujolar, Jose Martin; Ferchaud, Anne-Laure

2014-01-01

was used to genotype European eel individuals (glass eels) from 8 sampling locations across the species distribution. We tested for single-generation signatures of spatially varying selection in European eel by searching for elevated genetic differentiation using F-ST-based outlier tests and by testing...... for significant associations between allele frequencies and environmental variables. Results: We found signatures of possible selection at a total of 11 coding-gene SNPs. Candidate genes for local selection constituted mainly genes with a major role in metabolism as well as defense genes. Contrary to what has...... been found for American eel, only 2 SNPs in our study correlated with differences in temperature, which suggests that other explanatory variables may play a role. None of the genes found to be associated with explanatory variables in European eel showed any correlations with environmental factors...

VARIABILITY IN PHENOTYPIC EXPRESSION OF SEED QUALITY TRAITS IN SOYBEAN GERMPLASM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandra Sudarić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research was to determine the genetic variability of chosen soybean lines in seed quality by determining diversity in phenotypic expression of 1000 seed weight, as well as protein and oil concentrations in the seed. Field trials were set up in a randomized, complete block design with two replications, at the Agricultural Institute Osijek during three growing seasons (2010-2012. Each year, after harvest, 1000 seed weight, and protein and oil concentrations in the seed were determined. Statistical analyses of the results included: calculating basic measures of variation and analysis of variance. The analyzed data showed the existence of plant material's diversity in phenotypic expression of investigated seed quality traits, as well as the existence of statistically significant genotype and year effects.

TKA patients with unsatisfying knee function show changes in neuromotor synergy pattern but not joint biomechanics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ardestani, Marzieh M; Malloy, Philip; Nam, Denis; Rosenberg, Aaron G; Wimmer, Markus A

2017-12-01

Nearly 20% of patients who have undergone total knee arthroplasty (TKA) report persistent poor knee function. This study explores the idea that, despite similar knee joint biomechanics, the neuro-motor synergies may be different between high-functional and low-functional TKA patients. We hypothesized that (1) high-functional TKA recruit a more complex neuro-motor synergy pattern compared to low-functional TKA and (2) high-functional TKA patients demonstrate more stride-to-stride variability (flexibility) in their synergies. Gait and electromyography (EMG) data were collected during level walking for three groups of participants: (i) high-functional TKA patients (n=13); (ii) low-functional TKA patients (n=13) and (iii) non-operative controls (n=18). Synergies were extracted from EMG data using non-negative matrix factorization. Analysis of variance and Spearman correlation analyses were used to investigate between-group differences in gait and neuro-motor synergies. Results showed that synergy patterns were different among the three groups. Control subjects used 5-6 independent neural commands to execute a gait cycle. High functional TKA patients used 4-5 independent neural commands while low-functional TKA patients relied on only 2-3 independent neural commands to execute a gait cycle. Furthermore, stride-to-stride variability of muscles' response to the neural commands was reduced up to 15% in low-functional TKAs compared to the other two groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to deal with continuous and dichotomic outcomes in epidemiological research: linear and logistic regression analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tripepi, Giovanni; Jager, Kitty J.; Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Zoccali, Carmine

2011-01-01

Because of some limitations of stratification methods, epidemiologists frequently use multiple linear and logistic regression analyses to address specific epidemiological questions. If the dependent variable is a continuous one (for example, systolic pressure and serum creatinine), the researcher

X-RAY SPECTRAL VARIABILITY IN NGC 3783

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reis, R. C.; Miller, J. M.; Fabian, A. C.; Walton, D. J.; Reynolds, C. S.; Trippe, M.; Mushotzky, R. F.; Brenneman, L. W.; Nowak, M. A.

2012-01-01

NGC 3783 was observed for approximately 210 ks by Suzaku and in this time showed significant spectral and flux variability at both short (20 ks) and long (100 ks) timescales. The full observation is found to consist of approximately six 'spectral periods' where the behavior of the soft (0.3-1.0 keV) and hard (2-10 keV) bands are somewhat distinct. Using a variety of methods we find that the strong warm absorber present in this source does not change on these timescales, confirming that the broadband variability is intrinsic to the central source. The time-resolved difference-spectra are well modeled with an absorbed power law below 10 keV, but show an additional hard excess at ≈20 keV in the latter stages of the observation. This suggests that, in addition to the variable power law, there is a further variable component that varies with time but not monotonically with flux. We show that a likely interpretation is that this further component is associated with variations in the reflection fraction or possibly ionization state of the accretion disk a few gravitational radii from the black hole.

Objectifying Tactics: Athlete and Race Variability in Elite Short-Track Speed Skating.

Science.gov (United States)

Konings, Marco J; Hettinga, Florentina J

2018-02-01

To objectively capture and understand tactical considerations in a race, the authors explored whether race-to-race variation of an athlete and the variation of competitors within a race could provide insight into how and when athletes modify their pacing decisions in response to other competitors. Lap times of elite 500-, 1000-, and 1500-m short-track speed-skating competitions from 2011 to 2016 (N = 6965 races) were collected. Log-transformed lap and finishing times were analyzed with mixed linear models. To determine within-athlete race-to-race variability, athlete identity (between-athletes differences) and the residual (within-athlete race-to-race variation) were added as random effects. To determine race variability, race identity (between-races differences) and the residual (within-race variation) were added as random effects. Separate analyses were performed for each event. Within-athlete race-to-race variability of the finishing times increased with prolonged distance of the event (500-m, CV = 1.6%; 1000-m, CV = 2.8%; 1500-m, CV = 4.1%), mainly due to higher within-athlete race-to-race variability in the initial phase of 1000-m (3.3-6.9%) and 1500-m competitions (8.7-12.2%). During these early stages, within-race variability is relatively low in 1000-m (1.1-1.4%) and 1500-m (1.3-2.8%) competitions. The present study demonstrated how analyses of athlete and race variability could provide insight into tactical pacing decisions in sports where finishing position is emphasized over finishing time. The high variability of short-track skaters is a result of the decision to alter initial pacing behavior based on the behavior of other competitors in their race, emphasizing the importance of athlete-environment interactions in the context of pacing.

Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) Input Coal Analyses and Off-Gass Filter (OGF) Content Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jantzen, Carol M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Missimer, David M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Guenther, Chris P. [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Shekhawat, Dushyant [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); VanEssendelft, Dirk T. [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Means, Nicholas C. [AECOM Technology Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-04-23

in process piping and materials, in excessive off-gas absorbent loading, and in undesired process emissions. The ash content of the coal is important as the ash adds to the DMR and other vessel products which affect the final waste product mass and composition. The amount and composition of the ash also affects the reaction kinetics. Thus ash content and composition contributes to the mass balance. In addition, sodium, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and maybe silica and alumina in the ash may contribute to wall-scale formation. Sodium, potassium, and alumina in the ash will be overwhelmed by the sodium, potassium, and alumina from the feed but the impact from the other ash components needs to be quantified. A maximum coal particle size is specified so the feed system does not plug and a minimum particle size is specified to prevent excess elutriation from the DMR to the Process Gas Filter (PGF). A vendor specification was used to procure the calcined coal for IWTU processing. While the vendor supplied a composite analysis for the 22 tons of coal (Appendix A), this study compares independent analyses of the coal performed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Three supersacks a were sampled at three different heights within the sack in order to determine within bag variability and between bag variability of the coal. These analyses were also compared to the vendor’s composite analyses and to the coal specification. These analyses were also compared to historic data on Bestac coal analyses that had been performed at Hazen Research Inc. (HRI) between 2004-2011.

Confirming theoretical pay constructs of a variable pay scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sibangilizwe Ncube

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Orientation: Return on the investment in variable pay programmes remains controversial because their cost versus contribution cannot be empirically justified. Research purpose: This study validates the findings of the model developed by De Swardt on the factors related to successful variable pay programmes. Motivation for the study: Many organisations blindly implement variable pay programmes without any means to assess the impact these programmes have on the company’s performance. This study was necessary to validate the findings of an existing instrument that validates the contribution of variable pay schemes. Research design, approach and method: The study was conducted using quantitative research. A total of 300 completed questionnaires from a non-purposive sample of 3000 participants in schemes across all South African industries were returned and analysed. Main findings: Using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, it was found that the validation instrument developed by De Swardt is still largely valid in evaluating variable pay schemes. The differences between the study and the model were reported. Practical/managerial implications: The study confirmed the robustness of an existing model that enables practitioners to empirically validate the use of variable pay plans. This model assists in the design and implementation of variable pay programmes that meet critical success factors. Contribution/value-add: The study contributed to the development of a measurement instrument that will assess whether a variable pay plan contributes to an organisation’s success.

Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Reiss, Christian S; Hunter, John R; Beddington, John R; May, Robert M; Sugihara, George

2006-10-19

The separation of the effects of environmental variability from the impacts of fishing has been elusive, but is essential for sound fisheries management. We distinguish environmental effects from fishing effects by comparing the temporal variability of exploited versus unexploited fish stocks living in the same environments. Using the unique suite of 50-year-long larval fish surveys from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations we analyse fishing as a treatment effect in a long-term ecological experiment. Here we present evidence from the marine environment that exploited species exhibit higher temporal variability in abundance than unexploited species. This remains true after accounting for life-history effects, abundance, ecological traits and phylogeny. The increased variability of exploited populations is probably caused by fishery-induced truncation of the age structure, which reduces the capacity of populations to buffer environmental events. Therefore, to avoid collapse, fisheries must be managed not only to sustain the total viable biomass but also to prevent the significant truncation of age structure. The double jeopardy of fishing to potentially deplete stock sizes and, more immediately, to amplify the peaks and valleys of population variability, calls for a precautionary management approach.

A systematic review and meta-Analyses show that carbapenem use and medical devices are the leading risk factors for carbapenem- resistant pseudomonas aeruginosa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.F. Voor (Anne); J.A. Severin (Juliëtte); E.M.E.H. Lesaffre (Emmanuel); M.C. Vos (Margreet)

2014-01-01

textabstractA systematic review and meta-Analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and to identify sources and reservoirs for the pathogen. A systematic search of PubMed and Embase databases from 1 January 1987 until 27 January

Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrate unique host immune responses to single and dual lentiviral infection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunando Roy

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV are recently identified lentiviruses that cause progressive immune decline and ultimately death in infected cats and humans. It is of great interest to understand how to prevent immune system collapse caused by these lentiviruses. We recently described that disease caused by a virulent FIV strain in cats can be attenuated if animals are first infected with a feline immunodeficiency virus derived from a wild cougar. The detailed temporal tracking of cat immunological parameters in response to two viral infections resulted in high-dimensional datasets containing variables that exhibit strong co-variation. Initial analyses of these complex data using univariate statistical techniques did not account for interactions among immunological response variables and therefore potentially obscured significant effects between infection state and immunological parameters.Here, we apply a suite of multivariate statistical tools, including Principal Component Analysis, MANOVA and Linear Discriminant Analysis, to temporal immunological data resulting from FIV superinfection in domestic cats. We investigated the co-variation among immunological responses, the differences in immune parameters among four groups of five cats each (uninfected, single and dual infected animals, and the "immune profiles" that discriminate among them over the first four weeks following superinfection. Dual infected cats mount an immune response by 24 days post superinfection that is characterized by elevated levels of CD8 and CD25 cells and increased expression of IL4 and IFNgamma, and FAS. This profile discriminates dual infected cats from cats infected with FIV alone, which show high IL-10 and lower numbers of CD8 and CD25 cells.Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrate both the dynamic nature of the immune response to FIV single and dual infection and the development of a unique immunological profile in dual

Can we identify non-stationary dynamics of trial-to-trial variability?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emili Balaguer-Ballester

Full Text Available Identifying sources of the apparent variability in non-stationary scenarios is a fundamental problem in many biological data analysis settings. For instance, neurophysiological responses to the same task often vary from each repetition of the same experiment (trial to the next. The origin and functional role of this observed variability is one of the fundamental questions in neuroscience. The nature of such trial-to-trial dynamics however remains largely elusive to current data analysis approaches. A range of strategies have been proposed in modalities such as electro-encephalography but gaining a fundamental insight into latent sources of trial-to-trial variability in neural recordings is still a major challenge. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept study to the analysis of trial-to-trial variability dynamics founded on non-autonomous dynamical systems. At this initial stage, we evaluate the capacity of a simple statistic based on the behaviour of trajectories in classification settings, the trajectory coherence, in order to identify trial-to-trial dynamics. First, we derive the conditions leading to observable changes in datasets generated by a compact dynamical system (the Duffing equation. This canonical system plays the role of a ubiquitous model of non-stationary supervised classification problems. Second, we estimate the coherence of class-trajectories in empirically reconstructed space of system states. We show how this analysis can discern variations attributable to non-autonomous deterministic processes from stochastic fluctuations. The analyses are benchmarked using simulated and two different real datasets which have been shown to exhibit attractor dynamics. As an illustrative example, we focused on the analysis of the rat's frontal cortex ensemble dynamics during a decision-making task. Results suggest that, in line with recent hypotheses, rather than internal noise, it is the deterministic trend which most likely underlies

Labour market participants’ competitiveness assessment based on latent variables theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. V. Sabetova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article suggests innovative model for assessment of labour market subjects’ competitiveness, or successfulness. The authors state that general complex indicator for individual competitiveness within the labour market cannot be identified. Instead, precise enough assessment of such competitiveness can be based on some variables, though different for in-house and external labour market. The model of latent variables’ assessment based on Rasch’s method was selected as the base for the suggested method. The assessment model gives unbiased generalized values of subjects’ competitiveness on the linear non-dimensional scale based on the partial estimates of the selected criteria. The free choice of these criteria allows the model’s appliance for various labour market segments. The article demonstrates the mathematical grounding for the model; methodic of the assessment criteria selection; the way of assessment performance using MS Excel. It also analyses the features of the obtained estimates and shows their comparison with the estimates obtained by traditional methods. The model suggested by the authors can introduce any quantitative parameter of competitiveness as a variable after analysis of the factors affecting it. The quantitative estimates of these factors become the model’s criteria, but the assessment precision does not alter.

The 30-60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May-September

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wang, Ming

2018-05-01

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer (May-September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

Study of the Variability of the Reflection Component in Seyfert 1 Galaxies: Connecting the Fe K Variability with the Compton Hump

Science.gov (United States)

Ponti, G.; Miniutti, G.; Malaguti, G.; Gallo, L.; Goldwurm, A.

2009-05-01

We present preliminary results of an ongoing project devoted to the study of the continuum and Fe K band variability in a sample of bright AGNs. These kind of studies may break the spectral degeneracy between the different absorption/emission models, allowing ``safe'' measurements of the disc and black hole properties from the broad line shapes. In fact, the Fe K band, alone, allows a first separation between the different components. Here we show the case of NGC 3783 which shows both a constant and a variable reflection component as well as strong ionized absorption. We show that a fundamental contribution will be given by Simbol-X that will allow to simultaneously measure not only the Fe K variability, but also the connected reflection hump variations.

Controlling Kuka Industrial Robots : Flexible Communication Interface JOpenShowVar.

OpenAIRE

Sanfilippo, Filippo; Hatledal, Lars Ivar; Zhang, Houxiang; Fago, Massimiliano; Pettersen, Kristin Ytterstad

2015-01-01

JOpenShowVar is a Java open-source cross-platform communication interface to Kuka industrial robots. This novel interface allows for read-write use of the controlled manipulator variables and data structures. JOpenShowVar, which is compatible with all the Kuka industrial robots that use KUKA Robot Controller version 4 (KR C4) and KUKA Robot Controller version 2 (KR C2), runs as a client on a remote computer connected with the Kuka controller via TCP/IP. Even though only soft real-time applica...

Variability of in vitro and phenological behaviours of cocoa hybrids ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cultivated cocoa species (Theobroma cacao L.) is originated from tropical rainforests of South and Central America. Its fermented and dried seeds constitute the raw material for the chocolate manufacture. In order to analyse the variability of the in vitro and phenological behaviours of 6 cocoa hybrids, the typological and ...

SELECTING QUASARS BY THEIR INTRINSIC VARIABILITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, Kasper B.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Jester, Sebastian; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Marshall, Philip J.; Dobler, Gregory

2010-01-01

We present a new and simple technique for selecting extensive, complete, and pure quasar samples, based on their intrinsic variability. We parameterize the single-band variability by a power-law model for the light-curve structure function, with amplitude A and power-law index γ. We show that quasars can be efficiently separated from other non-variable and variable sources by the location of the individual sources in the A-γ plane. We use ∼60 epochs of imaging data, taken over ∼5 years, from the SDSS stripe 82 (S82) survey, where extensive spectroscopy provides a reference sample of quasars, to demonstrate the power of variability as a quasar classifier in multi-epoch surveys. For UV-excess selected objects, variability performs just as well as the standard SDSS color selection, identifying quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 95%. In the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3, where color selection is known to be problematic, variability can select quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 96%. This is a factor of 5-10 times more pure than existing color selection of quasars in this redshift range. Selecting objects from a broad griz color box without u-band information, variability selection in S82 can afford completeness and purity of 92%, despite a factor of 30 more contaminants than quasars in the color-selected feeder sample. This confirms that the fraction of quasars hidden in the 'stellar locus' of color space is small. To test variability selection in the context of Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) we created mock PS1 data by down-sampling the S82 data to just six epochs over 3 years. Even with this much sparser time sampling, variability is an encouragingly efficient classifier. For instance, a 92% pure and 44% complete quasar candidate sample is attainable from the above griz-selected catalog. Finally, we show that the presented A-γ technique, besides selecting clean and pure samples of quasars (which are stochastically varying objects), is also

High-p{sub T} B-tagging and top-tagging with variable-R jets in ATLAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Behr, Katharina [Sub-department of Particle Physics, University of Oxford, Denys-Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom)

2015-07-01

Variable-R jets, whose effective size is inversely proportional to their transverse momentum, are a versatile tool for object reconstruction across the large transverse momentum regime accessible during Run 2 of the LHC. I discuss the performance of Variable-R jets in two different contexts: (1) Boosted top-tagging. The separation between the decay products of highly energetic top quarks decreases with p{sub T}{sup top} causing them to overlap and merge into a single jet. Taggers relying on large fixed-R jets overestimate the real size of the top jet in the highly boosted regime and are more susceptible to the effects of pile-up. Variable-R jets are studied as the basis for more natural taggers which may not even require grooming. (2) B-tagging. The b-tagging performance in boosted topologies suffers in the presence of close-by jets. This limits the sensitivity of many searches such as those in boosted hh → 4b final states. New b-taggers relying on track jets with smaller sizes than the traditional R=0.4 to better isolate the b-hadron decay show significant improvements in highly boosted scenarios but perform worse at low transverse momenta where they fail to capture the full b-jet. Variable-R track jets provide a unified approach to b-tagging in both p{sub T} regimes.

Analysis of genetic diversity of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum from eggplant by mycelial compatibility, random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD and simple sequence repeat (SSR analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatih Mehmet Tok

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The genetic diversity and pathogenicity/virulence among 60 eggplant Sclerotinia sclerotiorum isolates collected from six different geographic regions of Turkey were analysed using mycelial compatibility groupings (MCGs, random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD and simple sequence repeat (SSR polymorphism. By MCG tests, the isolates were classified into 22 groups. Out of 22 MCGs, 36% were represented each by a single isolate. The isolates showed great variability for virulence regardless of MCG and geographic origin. Based on the results of RAPD and SSR analyses, 60 S. sclerotiorum isolates representing 22 MCGs were grouped in 2 and 3 distinct clusters, respectively. Analyses using RAPD and SSR markers illustrated that cluster groupings or genetic distance of S. sclerotiorum populations from eggplant were not distinctly relative to the MCG, geographical origin and virulence diversity. The patterns obtained revealed a high heterogeneity of genetic composition and suggested the occurrence of clonal and sexual reproduction of S. sclerotiorum on eggplant in the areas surveyed.

Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

2013-01-01

Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in

Workload analyse of assembling process

Science.gov (United States)

Ghenghea, L. D.

2015-11-01

The workload is the most important indicator for managers responsible of industrial technological processes no matter if these are automated, mechanized or simply manual in each case, machines or workers will be in the focus of workload measurements. The paper deals with workload analyses made to a most part manual assembling technology for roller bearings assembling process, executed in a big company, with integrated bearings manufacturing processes. In this analyses the delay sample technique have been used to identify and divide all bearing assemblers activities, to get information about time parts from 480 minutes day work time that workers allow to each activity. The developed study shows some ways to increase the process productivity without supplementary investments and also indicated the process automation could be the solution to gain maximum productivity.

Mastery Learning and the Decreasing Variability Hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingston, Jennifer A.; Gentile, J. Ronald

1996-01-01

This report results from studies that tested two variations of Bloom's decreasing variability hypothesis using performance on successive units of achievement in four graduate classrooms that used mastery learning procedures. Data do not support the decreasing variability hypothesis; rather, they show no change over time. (SM)

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Muñoz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Variability of femoral muscle attachments.

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, G N; Brand, D; Freitag, S; Lierse, W; Schneider, E

1996-09-01

Analytical and experimental models of the musculoskeletal system often assume single values rather than ranges for anatomical input parameters. The hypothesis of the present study was that anatomical variability significantly influences the results of biomechanical analyses, specifically regarding the moment arms of the various thigh muscles. Insertions and origins of muscles crossing or attaching to the femur were digitized in six specimens. Muscle volumes were measured; muscle attachment area and centroid location were computed. To demonstrate the influence of inter-individual anatomic variability on a mechanical modeling parameter, the corresponding range of muscle moment arms were calculated. Standard deviations, as a percentage of the mean, were about 70% for attachment area and 80% for muscle volume and attachment centroid location. The resulting moment arms of the m. gluteus maximus and m. rectus femoris were especially sensitive to anatomical variations (SD 65%). The results indicate that sensitivity to anatomical variations should be analyzed in any investigation simulating musculoskeletal interactions. To avoid misinterpretations, investigators should consider using several anatomical configurations rather than relying on a mean data set.

The Southern Oscillation and northern hemisphere temperature variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ropelewski, C.F.; Halpert, M.S.

1990-01-01

The Southern Oscillation (SO) is the best defined and understood mode of interannual climate variability. The extreme phases of the SO have been identified with global-scale variations in the atmosphere/ocean circulation system and with the modulation of monsoon precipitation on the global scale. While SO-related precipitation has been the subject of several studies, the magnitude of the SO-related temperature variability on the global scale has not been well documented. In this paper the authors provide an estimate of the SO-related temperature variability in the context of monitoring global warming related to the increase in greenhouse gases. This analysis suggested that traditional time series of hemispheric and global temperature anomalies for the calendar year may confuse interannual temperature variability associated with the SO and perceived climate trend. Analyses based on calendar-year data are likely to split the effects of the SO-related temperature variability over two years. The Northern Hemisphere cold season (october through March) time series may be more appropriate to separate the SO-related effects on the hemispheric temperature from other modes of variability. mean interannual temperature anomaly differences associated with the extremes of the So are estimated to be 0.2 C for the October-to-March season in the Northern Hemisphere. In areas directly linked to the SO, the mean interannual differences amount to over 0.5 C. The So cannot account for all the variability in the hemispheric times series of surface temperature estimates, but the SO signal must be properly accounted for if these time series are to be understood

Variability in population abundance is associated with thresholds between scaling regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Wardwell, D.; Allen, Craig R.

2009-01-01

Discontinuous structure in landscapes may result in discontinuous, aggregated species body-mass patterns, reflecting the scales of structure available to animal communities within a landscape. The edges of these body-mass aggregations reflect transitions between available scales of landscape structure. Such transitions, or scale breaks, are theoretically associated with increased biological variability. We hypothesized that variability in population abundance is greater in animal species near the edge of body-mass aggregations than it is in species that are situated in the interior of body-mass aggregations. We tested this hypothesis by examining both temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of species in the bird community of the Florida Everglades sub-ecoregion, USA. Analyses of both temporal and spatial variability in population abundance supported our hypothesis. Our results indicate that variability within complex systems may be non-random, and is heightened where transitions in scales of process and structure occur. This is the first explicit test of the hypothetical relationship between increased population variability and scale breaks. ?? 2009 by the author(s).

The role of multiploidy as unfavorable prognostic variable in colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosimelli, M; D'Agnano, I; Tedesco, M; D'Angelo, C; Botti, C; Giannarelli, D; Vasselli, S; Cavaliere, F; Zupi, G; Cavaliere, R

1998-01-01

To analyze the prognostic value of DNA multiploidy in a prospective study on frozen surgical tissue samples from primary colorectal cancer. Survival data from eleven prospective studies collectively comprising about thirteen hundred patients showed that aneuploidy correlated with a 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) significantly poorer than diploidy, and showed the limited prognostic value of results from retrospective studies employing paraffin-embedded material. Multiple tumor samples of fresh/frozen surgical tissues from 120 colorectal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery were taken for flow cytometric analysis of DNA content, and proliferative activity, shown as percentage of cells in S-phase (%S). The minimum follow-up of this series was 30 months. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined the independent significance of both clinical and biological variable on DFS. Values of %S equal to or higher than 17.3 correlated with a 5-year DFS poorer than values lower than 17.3 (44.5% vs 85.2% respectively; p = .03), even if only in patients younger than 64. The subgroup with multiploid tumors showed a significantly poorer 5-year DFS (44.5% vs. 62.6% in the non multiploid patients; p = .02). Subgrouping the Dukes'B stage alone by multiploidy, the difference in DFS was much more evident (31.2% vs. 68% respectively; p = .0004) and multivariate analysis showed multiploidy as the only significant variable. Above all, adjuvant therapy did not absolutely modify the unfavorable outcome of the multiploid Dukes'B patients. The prospective evaluation of ploidy allowed us to identify a very high-risk subgroup of patients with multiploid tumors. This biological characterization was easy to demonstrate and, above all in node-negative patients, reliable and very effective in terms of prognosis. The presence of multiploidy should result in a more aggressive therapeutic approach in the adjuvant setting.

Brain Signal Variability Differentially Affects Cognitive Flexibility and Cognitive Stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Armbruster-Genç, Diana J N; Ueltzhöffer, Kai; Fiebach, Christian J

2016-04-06

Recent research yielded the intriguing conclusion that, in healthy adults, higher levels of variability in neuronal processes are beneficial for cognitive functioning. Beneficial effects of variability in neuronal processing can also be inferred from neurocomputational theories of working memory, albeit this holds only for tasks requiring cognitive flexibility. However, cognitive stability, i.e., the ability to maintain a task goal in the face of irrelevant distractors, should suffer under high levels of brain signal variability. To directly test this prediction, we studied both behavioral and brain signal variability during cognitive flexibility (i.e., task switching) and cognitive stability (i.e., distractor inhibition) in a sample of healthy human subjects and developed an efficient and easy-to-implement analysis approach to assess BOLD-signal variability in event-related fMRI task paradigms. Results show a general positive effect of neural variability on task performance as assessed by accuracy measures. However, higher levels of BOLD-signal variability in the left inferior frontal junction area result in reduced error rate costs during task switching and thus facilitate cognitive flexibility. In contrast, variability in the same area has a detrimental effect on cognitive stability, as shown in a negative effect of variability on response time costs during distractor inhibition. This pattern was mirrored at the behavioral level, with higher behavioral variability predicting better task switching but worse distractor inhibition performance. Our data extend previous results on brain signal variability by showing a differential effect of brain signal variability that depends on task context, in line with predictions from computational theories. Recent neuroscientific research showed that the human brain signal is intrinsically variable and suggested that this variability improves performance. Computational models of prefrontal neural networks predict differential

Analysing harmonic motions with an iPhone’s magnetometer

Science.gov (United States)

Yavuz, Ahmet; Kağan Temiz, Burak

2016-05-01

In this paper, we propose an experiment for analysing harmonic motion using an iPhone’s (or iPad’s) magnetometer. This experiment consists of the detection of magnetic field variations obtained from an iPhone’s magnetometer sensor. A graph of harmonic motion is directly displayed on the iPhone’s screen using the Sensor Kinetics application. Data from this application was analysed with Eureqa software to establish the equation of the harmonic motion. Analyses show that the use of an iPhone’s magnetometer to analyse harmonic motion is a practical and effective method for small oscillations and frequencies less than 15-20 Hz.

Exploring the mitochondrial DNA variability of the Amazonian Yanomami.

Science.gov (United States)

Varano, Sara; Scorrano, Gabriele; Martínez-Labarga, Cristina; Finocchio, Andrea; Rapone, Cesare; Berti, Andrea; Rickards, Olga

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to explore the mitochondrial variability in the Yanomami population to reconstruct its demographic history and explore its genetic composition in relation to its cultural and linguistic features. A total of 174 human head hair shafts -collected in 1958- belonging to individuals from a Yanomami group living in Santa Isabel, Brazil, were analyzed. Automated extraction of the hairs was performed, and several methods were applied to optimize the analysis of the degraded DNA. The mtDNA hypervariable segments I-II, along with the 9-bp COII-tRNA Lys deletion, were investigated. Using published data from the Yanomami and other Amazonian populations, several statistical analyses were carried out to explore the genetic variability within the study population. Ninety eight percent of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences analyzed belonged to Native American haplogroups, while 2% belonged to African haplogroups. Compared with the Yanomami groups previously studied, the Santa Isabel sample seemed more genetically similar to other Amazonian populations. Among the Yanomami samples studied to date, the Santa Isabel Yanomami show a higher genetic heterogeneity. This could be due to gene flow with non-Yanomami populations, as well as to the introduction of new mitochondrial haplotypes by gold miners. In both cases, the geographic location of Santa Isabel might have made this Yanomami village less isolated than the others, suggesting that the Rio Negro played a central role in increasing its genetic variability. On the whole, the Yanomami were quite genetically diversified, probably mirroring their great linguistic heterogeneity. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:846-856, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Multi-Faceted Approach to Analyse the Effects of Environmental Variables on Geographic Range and Genetic Structure of a Perennial Psammophilous Geophyte: The Case of the Sea Daffodil Pancratium maritimum L. in the Mediterranean Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

De Castro, Olga; Di Maio, Antonietta; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Imparato, Gennaro; Innangi, Michele; Véla, Errol; Menale, Bruno

2016-01-01

The Mediterranean coastline is a dynamic and complex system which owes its complexity to its past and present vicissitudes, e.g. complex tectonic history, climatic fluctuations, and prolonged coexistence with human activities. A plant species that is widespread in this habitat is the sea daffodil, Pancratium maritimum (Amaryllidaceae), which is a perennial clonal geophyte of the coastal sands of the Mediterranean and neighbouring areas, well adapted to the stressful conditions of sand dune environments. In this study, an integrated approach was used, combining genetic and environmental data with a niche modelling approach, aimed to investigate: (1) the effect of climate change on the geographic range of this species at different times {past (last inter-glacial, LIG; and last glacial maximum, LGM), present (CURR), near-future (FUT)} and (2) the possible influence of environmental variables on the genetic structure of this species in the current period. The genetic results show that 48 sea daffodil populations (867 specimens) display a good genetic diversity in which the marginal populations (i.e. Atlantic Sea populations) present lower values. Recent genetic signature of bottleneck was detected in few populations (8%). The molecular variation was higher within the populations (77%) and two genetic pools were well represented. Comparing the different climatic simulations in time, the global range of this plant increased, and a further extension is foreseen in the near future thanks to projections on the climate of areas currently-more temperate, where our model suggested a forecast for a climate more similar to the Mediterranean coast. A significant positive correlation was observed between the genetic distance and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter variable in current periods. Our analyses support the hypothesis that geomorphology of the Mediterranean coasts, sea currents, and climate have played significant roles in shaping the current genetic structure of the sea

137 Analyse fréquentielle des évènements hydro-pluviométriques ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Utilisateur

Frequentiel analyse of extreme hydropluviometric events iin the Sota basin of Benin. West Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to the climatic variability. According to the forecasts of the GIEC, some extreme phenomena will increase frequency and/or intensity in the XXIe century because of the evolution ...

Statistical analyses of scatterplots to identify important factors in large-scale simulations, 2: robustness of techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Helton, J.C.

1999-01-01

The robustness of procedures for identifying patterns in scatterplots generated in Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses is investigated. These procedures are based on attempts to detect increasingly complex patterns in the scatterplots under consideration and involve the identification of (i) linear relationships with correlation coefficients, (ii) monotonic relationships with rank correlation coefficients, (iii) trends in central tendency as defined by means, medians and the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, (iv) trends in variability as defined by variances and interquartile ranges, and (v) deviations from randomness as defined by the chi-square statistic. The following two topics related to the robustness of these procedures are considered for a sequence of example analyses with a large model for two-phase fluid flow: the presence of Type I and Type II errors, and the stability of results obtained with independent Latin hypercube samples. Observations from analysis include: (i) Type I errors are unavoidable, (ii) Type II errors can occur when inappropriate analysis procedures are used, (iii) physical explanations should always be sought for why statistical procedures identify variables as being important, and (iv) the identification of important variables tends to be stable for independent Latin hypercube samples

A Simple, Reliable Precision Time Analyser

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joshi, B. V.; Nargundkar, V. R.; Subbarao, K.; Kamath, M. S.; Eligar, S. K. [Atomic Energy Establishment Trombay, Bombay (India)

1966-06-15

A 30-channel time analyser is described. The time analyser was designed and built for pulsed neutron research but can be applied to other uses. Most of the logic is performed by means of ferrite memory core and transistor switching circuits. This leads to great versatility, low power consumption, extreme reliability and low cost. The analyser described provides channel Widths from 10 {mu}s to 10 ms; arbitrarily wider channels are easily obtainable. It can handle counting rates up to 2000 counts/min in each channel with less than 1% dead time loss. There is a provision for an initial delay equal to 100 channel widths. An input pulse de-randomizer unit using tunnel diodes ensures exactly equal channel widths. A brief description of the principles involved in core switching circuitry is given. The core-transistor transfer loop is compared with the usual core-diode loops and is shown to be more versatile and better adapted to the making of a time analyser. The circuits derived from the basic loop are described. These include the scale of ten, the frequency dividers and the delay generator. The current drivers developed for driving the cores are described. The crystal-controlled clock which controls the width of the time channels and synchronizes the operation of the various circuits is described. The detector pulse derandomizer unit using tunnel diodes is described. The scheme of the time analyser is then described showing how the various circuits can be integrated together to form a versatile time analyser. (author)

Care package for anxiety disorders: no-show and dropout of standardised, time restricted treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tranberg, Hanne; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Lau, Marianne Engelbrecht

Background: Psychotherapy has shown to be efficacious but therapy effectiveness in mental health services is compromised by patients who fail to show up for assessment, treatment start and stay in treatment. Predictors for patient non-attendance (no-show and dropout) have been identified as patient...... or therapist characteristics. Organisational variables are sparsely studied although waiting time may affect no-show and dropout. In order to reduce waiting time the Mental Health Services in Denmark have introduced care packages in the treatment of non-psychotic disorders. Care packages are courses...... and if demographic and clinical variables were predictors for no-show and dropout. Methods: The study was a quasi-experimental pre-post study in a naturalistic setting in the Mental Health Services, Capital Region of Denmark. Two samples of patients, aged above 18 years and referred for treatment for anxiety...

Effects of undetected data quality issues on climatological analyses

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S. Hunziker

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Systematic data quality issues may occur at various stages of the data generation process. They may affect large fractions of observational datasets and remain largely undetected with standard data quality control. This study investigates the effects of such undetected data quality issues on the results of climatological analyses. For this purpose, we quality controlled daily observations of manned weather stations from the Central Andean area with a standard and an enhanced approach. The climate variables analysed are minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. About 40 % of the observations are inappropriate for the calculation of monthly temperature means and precipitation sums due to data quality issues. These quality problems undetected with the standard quality control approach strongly affect climatological analyses, since they reduce the correlation coefficients of station pairs, deteriorate the performance of data homogenization methods, increase the spread of individual station trends, and significantly bias regional temperature trends. Our findings indicate that undetected data quality issues are included in important and frequently used observational datasets and hence may affect a high number of climatological studies. It is of utmost importance to apply comprehensive and adequate data quality control approaches on manned weather station records in order to avoid biased results and large uncertainties.

Variable importance and prediction methods for longitudinal problems with missing variables.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iván Díaz

Full Text Available We present prediction and variable importance (VIM methods for longitudinal data sets containing continuous and binary exposures subject to missingness. We demonstrate the use of these methods for prognosis of medical outcomes of severe trauma patients, a field in which current medical practice involves rules of thumb and scoring methods that only use a few variables and ignore the dynamic and high-dimensional nature of trauma recovery. Well-principled prediction and VIM methods can provide a tool to make care decisions informed by the high-dimensional patient's physiological and clinical history. Our VIM parameters are analogous to slope coefficients in adjusted regressions, but are not dependent on a specific statistical model, nor require a certain functional form of the prediction regression to be estimated. In addition, they can be causally interpreted under causal and statistical assumptions as the expected outcome under time-specific clinical interventions, related to changes in the mean of the outcome if each individual experiences a specified change in the variable (keeping other variables in the model fixed. Better yet, the targeted MLE used is doubly robust and locally efficient. Because the proposed VIM does not constrain the prediction model fit, we use a very flexible ensemble learner (the SuperLearner, which returns a linear combination of a list of user-given algorithms. Not only is such a prediction algorithm intuitive appealing, it has theoretical justification as being asymptotically equivalent to the oracle selector. The results of the analysis show effects whose size and significance would have been not been found using a parametric approach (such as stepwise regression or LASSO. In addition, the procedure is even more compelling as the predictor on which it is based showed significant improvements in cross-validated fit, for instance area under the curve (AUC for a receiver-operator curve (ROC. Thus, given that 1 our VIM

Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

Making oneself predictable: Reduced temporal variability facilitates joint action coordination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesper, Cordula; van der Wel, Robrecht; Knoblich, Günther

2011-01-01

Performing joint actions often requires precise temporal coordination of individual actions. The present study investigated how people coordinate their actions at discrete points in time when continuous or rhythmic information about others’ actions is not available. In particular, we tested...... the hypothesis that making oneself predictable is used as a coordination strategy. Pairs of participants were instructed to coordinate key presses in a two-choice reaction time task, either responding in synchrony (Experiments 1 and 2) or in close temporal succession (Experiment 3). Across all experiments, we...... found that coactors reduced the variability of their actions in the joint context compared with the same task performed individually. Correlation analyses indicated that the less variable the actions were, the better was interpersonal coordination. The relation between reduced variability and improved...

Geostatistical Analyses of Soil Organic Carbon Concentrations in Aligodarz Watershed, Lorestan Province

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Masoud Davari

2017-01-01

distribution of SOC were carried out with the geostatistical software GS+ (version 5. 1. Maps were generated by using ILWIS (version 3.3 GIS software. Results and Discussion: The results revealed that the raw SOC data have a long tail towards higher concentrations, whereas that squareroot transformed data can be satisfactorily modelled by a normal distribution. The probability distribution of SOC appeared to be positively skewed and have a positive kurtosis. The square root transformed data showed small skewness and kurtosis, and passed the K–S normality test at a significance level of higher than 0.05. Therefore, the square root transformed data of SOC was used for analyses. The SOC concentration varied from 0.08 to 2.39%, with an arithmetic mean of 0.81% and geometric mean of 0.73%. The coefficient of variation (CV, as an index of overall variability of SOC, was 44.49%. According to the classification system presented by Nielson and Bouma (1985, a variable is moderately varying if the CV is between 10% and 100%. Therefore, the content of SOC in the Aligodarz watershed can be considered to be in moderate variability. The experimental variogram of SOC was fitted by an exponential model. The values of the range, nugget, sill, and nugget/sill ratio of the best-fitted model were 6.80 km, 0.058, 0.133, and 43.6%, respectively. The positive nugget value can be explained by sampling error, short range variability, and unexplained and inherent variability. The nugget/sill ratio of 43.6% showed a moderate spatial dependence of SOC in the study area. The parameters of the exponential smivariogram model were used for kriging method to produce a spatial distribution map of SOC in the study area. The interpolated values ranged between 0.30 and 1.40%. Southern and central parts of this study area have the highest SOC concentrations, while the northern parts have the lowest concentrations of SOC. Kriging results also showed that the major parts of the Aligodarz watershed (about 87% have

Variable and subset selection in PLS regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høskuldsson, Agnar

2001-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present some useful methods for introductory analysis of variables and subsets in relation to PLS regression. We present here methods that are efficient in finding the appropriate variables or subset to use in the PLS regression. The general conclusion...... is that variable selection is important for successful analysis of chemometric data. An important aspect of the results presented is that lack of variable selection can spoil the PLS regression, and that cross-validation measures using a test set can show larger variation, when we use different subsets of X, than...

To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitzer, Sonja; Ribaux, Olivier; Albertini, Nicola; Delémont, Olivier

2016-05-01

In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing variability in the output of pattern classifiers using histogram shaping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Shalini; Kan, Chih-Wen; Markey, Mia K.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The authors present a novel technique based on histogram shaping to reduce the variability in the output and (sensitivity, specificity) pairs of pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, but differently distributed outputs. Methods: The authors identify different sources of variability in the output of linear pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, which also result in classifiers with differently distributed outputs. They theoretically develop a novel technique based on the matching of the histograms of these differently distributed pattern classifier outputs to reduce the variability in their (sensitivity, specificity) pairs at fixed decision thresholds, and to reduce the variability in their actual output values. They empirically demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed technique by means of analyses on the simulated data and real world mammography data. Results: For the simulated data, with three different known sources of variability, and for the real world mammography data with unknown sources of variability, the proposed classifier output calibration technique significantly reduced the variability in the classifiers' (sensitivity, specificity) pairs at fixed decision thresholds. Furthermore, for classifiers with monotonically or approximately monotonically related output variables, the histogram shaping technique also significantly reduced the variability in their actual output values. Conclusions: Classifier output calibration based on histogram shaping can be successfully employed to reduce the variability in the output values and (sensitivity, specificity) pairs of pattern classifiers with identical ROC curves, but differently distributed outputs.

Variables associated with active spondylolysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Chris D; Dean, Sarah; Schneiders, Anthony G

2009-11-01

Retrospective non-experimental study. To investigate variables associated with active spondylolysis. A retrospective study audited clinical data over a two year period from patients with suspected spondylolysis that were referred for a SPECT bone scan. Six exploratory variables were identified and analysed using uni- and multi-variate regression from 82 patient records to determine the association between symptomatic, physical and demographic characteristics, and the presence of an active spondylolysis. Tertiary level multidisciplinary private practice sports medicine clinic. All patients with low back pain that required a SPECT bone scan to confirm suspected spondylolysis. 82 subjects were included in the final sample group. The six exploratory variables included Age, Gender, Injury duration, Injury onset, Sports participation and the result of the Single Leg Hyperextension Test. The dependent outcome variable was the result of the SPECT bone scan (scan-positive or scan-negative). Adolescent males had a higher incidence of spondylolysis detected by SPECT bone scan compared to other patients and a statistically significant association was demonstrated for both age (p=0.01) and gender (p=0.01). Subjects with an active spondylolysis were nearly five times more likely to be male and aged less than 20 years. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio indicated that adolescent males with suspected spondylolysis were three and a half times more likely to have a positive bone scan result. The Single Leg Hyperextension Test did not demonstrate a statistically significant association with spondylolysis (p=0.47). Clinicians assessing for a predisposition to the development of spondylolysis should consider the gender and age of the patient and not rely on the predictive ability of the Single Leg Hyperextension Test.

The mediating role of metacognitive variables in the relationship between Thought-Action Fusion and obsessive-compulsive symptomatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Odriozola-González

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Diverse studies support the central role of Thought-Action Fusion (TAF and other metacognitive variables in the understanding of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD symptomatology. However, a more detailed study of the involvement of these variables is needed. This article seeks to assess the possible mediating role of the factors of the Metacognitions Questionnaire (MCQ in the relationship between TAF and OCD symptoms both in clinical and non-clinical samples. A cross-sectional design was used in which 120 participants, divided into three groups (two clinical and one non-clinical, completed the questionnaires assessing the constructs of interest. The mediational findings generally supported the proposed mediation model. Specifically, the mediational analyses focused on negative beliefs and the need to control (metacognitive factors of the MCQ showed that MCQ Negative beliefs mediated the effects of TAF-Total and TAF factors (except for the TAF-Moral on OCD symptomatology in the OCD group. The MCQ Need to control was non-significant as a mediator of the relationships between TAF and OCD. However, it was observed that this mediation approached significance, with considerable effect sizes. In the clinical-control group, the analyses showed that MCQ Negative beliefs mediated the effects of TAF-Likelihood-Oneself on OCD symptoms. In the remaining group, neither MCQ Negative beliefs nor MCQ Need to control were found to be significant mediators. It is generally concluded that certain beliefs, such as TAF, can evolve toward more complex metacognitive beliefs, which ultimately lead to the development of OCD symptoms.

Phenology and growth adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to photoperiod and climate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Legros, S; Mialet-Serra, I; Caliman, J-P; Siregar, F A; Clément-Vidal, A; Dingkuhn, M

2009-11-01

Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006-2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall - potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001-2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0 degrees 55'N) but the Batu Mulia site (3 degrees 12'S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 x n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models.

Environmental variables influencing the expression of morphological characteristics in clones of the forage cactus

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Marcela Lúcia Barbosa

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The environmental factors that affect the morphological characteristics of different genera of cacti are little known. The aim of this study therefore was to analyse the contribution of environmental variables to growth in cladodes and plant of forage cactus clones of the genera Nopalea and Opuntia. The data used in this study were obtained from an experiment conducted in Serra Talhada, Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2012 and 2013, where the clones 'IPA Sertânia' (Nopalea, 'Miúda' (Nopalea and 'Orelha de Elefante Mexicana' (Opuntia were submitted to different irrigation depths (2.5, 5.0 and 7.5 mm and fixed irrigation intervals (7, 14 and 28 days. Morphological characteristics of the cladodes and plants and weather variables were obtained over time. Pearson's correlation, followed by multicollinearity, canonical and path analysis were applied. The minimum temperature, maximum and minimum relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation were the variables that most affected growth in the cactus. The genus Opuntia showed less sensitivity to variations in air temperature compared to the genus Nopalea. The higher intensities of global solar radiation affected clones of the genus Nopalea more than the genus Opuntia. It can be concluded that there are different environmental requirements between forage cacti of the genera Nopalea and Opuntia.

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

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H. E. Thornton

2009-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB, the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE, the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II. The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

2009-02-01

This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.