WorldWideScience

Sample records for validated all-qsar models

  1. Validation of HEDR models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid

  2. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  3. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  4. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  5. HEDR model validation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1993-06-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computational ''tools'' for estimating the possible radiation dose that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the planned activities to ''validate'' these tools. In the sense of the HEDR Project, ''validation'' is a process carried out by comparing computational model predictions with field observations and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the model

  6. Groundwater Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed E. Hassan

    2006-01-24

    Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process of stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation

  7. Validating Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Atanasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.

  8. Validating Dart Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazur Jolanta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of the study was to quantitatively test the DART model, which despite being one of the most popular representations of co-creation concept was so far studied almost solely with qualitative methods. To this end, the researchers developed a multiple measurement scale and employed it in interviewing managers. The statistical evidence for adequacy of the model was obtained through CFA with AMOS software. The findings suggest that the DART model may not be an accurate representation of co-creation practices in companies. From the data analysis it was evident that the building blocks of DART had too much of conceptual overlap to be an effective framework for quantitative analysis. It was also implied that the phenomenon of co-creation is so rich and multifaceted that it may be more adequately captured by a measurement model where co-creation is conceived as a third-level factor with two layers of intermediate latent variables.

  9. Validation through model testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Geoval-94 is the third Geoval symposium arranged jointly by the OECD/NEA and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate. Earlier symposia in this series took place in 1987 and 1990. In many countries, the ongoing programmes to site and construct deep geological repositories for high and intermediate level nuclear waste are close to realization. A number of studies demonstrates the potential barrier function of the geosphere, but also that there are many unresolved issues. A key to these problems are the possibilities to gain knowledge by model testing with experiments and to increase confidence in models used for prediction. The sessions cover conclusions from the INTRAVAL-project, experiences from integrated experimental programs and underground research laboratories as well as the integration between performance assessment and site characterisation. Technical issues ranging from waste and buffer interactions with the rock to radionuclide migration in different geological media is addressed. (J.S.)

  10. Perpetual Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    25]. This inference process is carried out by a tool referred to as Hynger (Hybrid iNvariant GEneratoR), overviewed in Figure 4, which is a MATLAB ...initially on memory access patterns. A monitoring module will check, at runtime that the observed memory access pattern matches the pattern the software is...necessary. By using the developed approach, a model may be derived from initial tests or simulations , which will then be formally checked at runtime

  11. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  12. Verification and validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Jackson, C.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.

    1986-12-01

    The numerical accuracy of the computer models for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport that are to be used in repository safety assessment must be tested, and their ability to describe experimental data assessed: they must be verified and validated respectively. Also appropriate ways to use the codes in performance assessments, taking into account uncertainties in present data and future conditions, must be studied. These objectives are being met by participation in international exercises, by developing bench-mark problems, and by analysing experiments. In particular the project has funded participation in the HYDROCOIN project for groundwater flow models, the Natural Analogues Working Group, and the INTRAVAL project for geosphere models. (author)

  13. PEMFC modeling and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)

  14. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  15. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  16. Validation of models with multivariate output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebba, Ramesh; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops metrics for validating computational models with experimental data, considering uncertainties in both. A computational model may generate multiple response quantities and the validation experiment might yield corresponding measured values. Alternatively, a single response quantity may be predicted and observed at different spatial and temporal points. Model validation in such cases involves comparison of multiple correlated quantities. Multiple univariate comparisons may give conflicting inferences. Therefore, aggregate validation metrics are developed in this paper. Both classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing are investigated for this purpose, using multivariate analysis. Since, commonly used statistical significance tests are based on normality assumptions, appropriate transformations are investigated in the case of non-normal data. The methodology is implemented to validate an empirical model for energy dissipation in lap joints under dynamic loading

  17. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  18. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  19. A broad view of model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, C.F.

    1989-10-01

    The safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository requires the use of models. Such models need to be validated to ensure, as much as possible, that they are a good representation of the actual processes occurring in the real system. In this paper we attempt to take a broad view by reviewing step by step the modeling process and bringing out the need to validating every step of this process. This model validation includes not only comparison of modeling results with data from selected experiments, but also evaluation of procedures for the construction of conceptual models and calculational models as well as methodologies for studying data and parameter correlation. The need for advancing basic scientific knowledge in related fields, for multiple assessment groups, and for presenting our modeling efforts in open literature to public scrutiny is also emphasized. 16 refs

  20. Establishing model credibility involves more than validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, T.

    1991-01-01

    One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)

  1. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  2. Model validation: Correlation for updating

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, a review is presented of the various methods which ... to make a direct and objective comparison of specific dynamic properties, measured ..... stiffness matrix is available from the analytical model, is that of reducing or condensing.

  3. Validating EHR clinical models using ontology patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-12-01

    Clinical models are artefacts that specify how information is structured in electronic health records (EHRs). However, the makeup of clinical models is not guided by any formal constraint beyond a semantically vague information model. We address this gap by advocating ontology design patterns as a mechanism that makes the semantics of clinical models explicit. This paper demonstrates how ontology design patterns can validate existing clinical models using SHACL. Based on the Clinical Information Modelling Initiative (CIMI), we show how ontology patterns detect both modeling and terminology binding errors in CIMI models. SHACL, a W3C constraint language for the validation of RDF graphs, builds on the concept of "Shape", a description of data in terms of expected cardinalities, datatypes and other restrictions. SHACL, as opposed to OWL, subscribes to the Closed World Assumption (CWA) and is therefore more suitable for the validation of clinical models. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by manually describing the correspondences between six CIMI clinical models represented in RDF and two SHACL ontology design patterns. Using a Java-based SHACL implementation, we found at least eleven modeling and binding errors within these CIMI models. This demonstrates the usefulness of ontology design patterns not only as a modeling tool but also as a tool for validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Verification and validation for waste disposal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made

  5. Tracer travel time and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, Chin-Fu.

    1988-01-01

    The performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository demands much more in comparison to the safety evaluation of any civil constructions such as dams, or the resource evaluation of a petroleum or geothermal reservoir. It involves the estimation of low probability (low concentration) of radionuclide transport extrapolated 1000's of years into the future. Thus models used to make these estimates need to be carefully validated. A number of recent efforts have been devoted to the study of this problem. Some general comments on model validation were given by Tsang. The present paper discusses some issues of validation in regards to radionuclide transport. 5 refs

  6. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  7. BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1988-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

  8. BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1987-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

  9. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  10. Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredehoeft, J.D.; Konikow, Leonard F.

    1993-01-01

    The word validation has a clear meaning to both the scientific community and the general public. Within the scientific community the validation of scientific theory has been the subject of philosophical debate. The philosopher of science, Karl Popper, argued that scientific theory cannot be validated, only invalidated. Popper’s view is not the only opinion in this debate; however, many scientists today agree with Popper (including the authors). To the general public, proclaiming that a ground-water model is validated carries with it an aura of correctness that we do not believe many of us who model would claim. We can place all the caveats we wish, but the public has its own understanding of what the word implies. Using the word valid with respect to models misleads the public; verification carries with it similar connotations as far as the public is concerned. Our point is this: using the terms validation and verification are misleading, at best. These terms should be abandoned by the ground-water community.

  11. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  12. A discussion on validation of hydrogeological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrera, J.; Mousavi, S.F.; Usunoff, E.J.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Galarza, G.

    1993-01-01

    Groundwater flow and solute transport are often driven by heterogeneities that elude easy identification. It is also difficult to select and describe the physico-chemical processes controlling solute behaviour. As a result, definition of a conceptual model involves numerous assumptions both on the selection of processes and on the representation of their spatial variability. Validating a numerical model by comparing its predictions with actual measurements may not be sufficient for evaluating whether or not it provides a good representation of 'reality'. Predictions will be close to measurements, regardless of model validity, if these are taken from experiments that stress well-calibrated model modes. On the other hand, predictions will be far from measurements when model parameters are very uncertain, even if the model is indeed a very good representation of the real system. Hence, we contend that 'classical' validation of hydrogeological models is not possible. Rather, models should be viewed as theories about the real system. We propose to follow a rigorous modeling approach in which different sources of uncertainty are explicitly recognized. The application of one such approach is illustrated by modeling a laboratory uranium tracer test performed on fresh granite, which was used as Test Case 1b in INTRAVAL. (author)

  13. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  14. Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)

  15. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corapcioglu, M Y; Sung, K; Rhykerd, R L; Munster, C; Drew, M [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg[sub -1

  16. A methodology for PSA model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.

    1995-09-01

    This document reports Phase 2 of work undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in support of the Atomic Energy Control Board's Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) review. A methodology is presented for the systematic review and evaluation of a PSA model. These methods are intended to support consideration of the following question: To within the scope and depth of modeling resolution of a PSA study, is the resultant model a complete and accurate representation of the subject plant? This question was identified as a key PSA validation issue in SAIC's Phase 1 project. The validation methods are based on a model transformation process devised to enhance the transparency of the modeling assumptions. Through conversion to a 'success-oriented' framework, a closer correspondence to plant design and operational specifications is achieved. This can both enhance the scrutability of the model by plant personnel, and provide an alternative perspective on the model that may assist in the identification of deficiencies. The model transformation process is defined and applied to fault trees documented in the Darlington Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. A tentative real-time process is outlined for implementation and documentation of a PSA review based on the proposed methods. (author). 11 refs., 9 tabs., 30 refs

  17. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  18. Validation of the STAFF-5 computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.F.; Fields, S.R.

    1981-04-01

    STAFF-5 is a dynamic heat-transfer-fluid-flow stress model designed for computerized prediction of the temperature-stress performance of spent LWR fuel assemblies under storage/disposal conditions. Validation of the temperature calculating abilities of this model was performed by comparing temperature calculations under specified conditions to experimental data from the Engine Maintenance and Dissassembly (EMAD) Fuel Temperature Test Facility and to calculations performed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) using the HYDRA-1 model. The comparisons confirmed the ability of STAFF-5 to calculate representative fuel temperatures over a considerable range of conditions, as a first step in the evaluation and prediction of fuel temperature-stress performance

  19. SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.

  20. Natural analogues and radionuclide transport model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lever, D.A.

    1987-08-01

    In this paper, some possible roles for natural analogues are discussed from the point of view of those involved with the development of mathematical models for radionuclide transport and with the use of these models in repository safety assessments. The characteristic features of a safety assessment are outlined in order to address the questions of where natural analogues can be used to improve our understanding of the processes involved and where they can assist in validating the models that are used. Natural analogues have the potential to provide useful information about some critical processes, especially long-term chemical processes and migration rates. There is likely to be considerable uncertainty and ambiguity associated with the interpretation of natural analogues, and thus it is their general features which should be emphasized, and models with appropriate levels of sophistication should be used. Experience gained in modelling the Koongarra uranium deposit in northern Australia is drawn upon. (author)

  1. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  2. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  3. External validation of EPIWIN biodegradation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posthumus, R; Traas, T P; Peijnenburg, W J G M; Hulzebos, E M

    2005-01-01

    The BIOWIN biodegradation models were evaluated for their suitability for regulatory purposes. BIOWIN includes the linear and non-linear BIODEG and MITI models for estimating the probability of rapid aerobic biodegradation and an expert survey model for primary and ultimate biodegradation estimation. Experimental biodegradation data for 110 newly notified substances were compared with the estimations of the different models. The models were applied separately and in combinations to determine which model(s) showed the best performance. The results of this study were compared with the results of other validation studies and other biodegradation models. The BIOWIN models predict not-readily biodegradable substances with high accuracy in contrast to ready biodegradability. In view of the high environmental concern of persistent chemicals and in view of the large number of not-readily biodegradable chemicals compared to the readily ones, a model is preferred that gives a minimum of false positives without a corresponding high percentage false negatives. A combination of the BIOWIN models (BIOWIN2 or BIOWIN6) showed the highest predictive value for not-readily biodegradability. However, the highest score for overall predictivity with lowest percentage false predictions was achieved by applying BIOWIN3 (pass level 2.75) and BIOWIN6.

  4. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corapcioglu, M.Y.; Sung, K.; Rhykerd, R.L.; Munster, C.; Drew, M.

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg -1 ] TNT, PBB and chrysene. Vegetated and unvegetated treatments were conducted in triplicate to obtain data regarding contaminant concentrations in the soil, plant roots, root distribution, microbial activity, plant water use and soil moisture. When given the parameters of time and depth, the model successfully predicted contaminant concentrations under actual field conditions. Other model parameters are currently being evaluated. 15 refs., 2 figs

  5. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  6. Concepts of Model Verification and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.

    2004-01-01

    Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model

  7. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the greenhouse and of the control system. The greenhouse model is based on the energy, water vapour and CO 2 balances of the crop-greenhouse system. While the emphasis is on the dynamic behaviour of the greenhouse for implementation in continuous optimization, the state variables temperature, water vapour pressure and carbondioxide concentration in the relevant greenhouse parts crop, air, soil and cover are calculated from the balances over these parts. To do this in a proper way, the physical exchange processes between the system parts have to be quantified first. Therefore the greenhouse model is constructed from submodels describing these processes: a. Radiation transmission model for the modification of the outside to the inside global radiation. b. Ventilation model to describe the ventilation exchange between greenhouse and outside air. c. The description of the exchange of energy and mass between the crop and the greenhouse air. d. Calculation of the thermal radiation exchange between the various greenhouse parts. e. Quantification of the convective exchange processes between the greenhouse air and respectively the cover, the heating pipes and the soil surface and between the cover and the outside air. f. Determination of the heat conduction in the soil. The various submodels are validated first and then the complete greenhouse model is verified

  8. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  9. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  10. Polarographic validation of chemical speciation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffield, J.R.; Jarratt, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    It is well established that the chemical speciation of an element in a given matrix, or system of matrices, is of fundamental importance in controlling the transport behaviour of the element. Therefore, to accurately understand and predict the transport of elements and compounds in the environment it is a requirement that both the identities and concentrations of trace element physico-chemical forms can be ascertained. These twin requirements present the analytical scientist with considerable challenges given the labile equilibria, the range of time scales (from nanoseconds to years) and the range of concentrations (ultra-trace to macro) that may be involved. As a result of this analytical variability, chemical equilibrium modelling has become recognised as an important predictive tool in chemical speciation analysis. However, this technique requires firm underpinning by the use of complementary experimental techniques for the validation of the predictions made. The work reported here has been undertaken with the primary aim of investigating possible methodologies that can be used for the validation of chemical speciation models. However, in approaching this aim, direct chemical speciation analyses have been made in their own right. Results will be reported and analysed for the iron(II)/iron(III)-citrate proton system (pH 2 to 10; total [Fe] = 3 mmol dm -3 ; total [citrate 3- ] 10 mmol dm -3 ) in which equilibrium constants have been determined using glass electrode potentiometry, speciation is predicted using the PHREEQE computer code, and validation of predictions is achieved by determination of iron complexation and redox state with associated concentrations. (authors)

  11. Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh

    2012-01-01

    Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

  12. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  13. Modelling and validation of electromechanical shock absorbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonoli, Andrea; Amati, Nicola; Girardello Detoni, Joaquim; Galluzzi, Renato; Gasparin, Enrico

    2013-08-01

    Electromechanical vehicle suspension systems represent a promising substitute to conventional hydraulic solutions. However, the design of electromechanical devices that are able to supply high damping forces without exceeding geometric dimension and mass constraints is a difficult task. All these challenges meet in off-road vehicle suspension systems, where the power density of the dampers is a crucial parameter. In this context, the present paper outlines a particular shock absorber configuration where a suitable electric machine and a transmission mechanism are utilised to meet off-road vehicle requirements. A dynamic model is used to represent the device. Subsequently, experimental tests are performed on an actual prototype to verify the functionality of the damper and validate the proposed model.

  14. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  15. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  16. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

  17. MAAP4 model and validation status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plys, M.G.; Paik, C.Y.; Henry, R.E.; Wu, Chunder; Suh, K.Y.; Sung Jin Lee; McCartney, M.A.; Wang, Zhe

    1993-01-01

    The MAAP 4 code for integrated severe accident analysis is intended to be used for Level 1 and Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment and severe accident management evaluations for current and advanced light water reactors. MAAP 4 can be used to determine which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated before or after fuel damage (a level 1 application). It can also be used to determine which sequences result in fission product release to the environment and provide the time history of such releases (a level 2 application). The MAAP 4 thermal-hydraulic and fission product models and their validation are discussed here. This code is the newest version of MAAP offered by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and it contains substantial mechanistic improvements over its predecessor, MAAP 3.0B

  18. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

  19. Developing a model for validation and prediction of bank customer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Credit risk is the most important risk of banks. The main approaches of the bank to reduce credit risk are correct validation using the final status and the validation model parameters. High fuel of bank reserves and lost or outstanding facilities of banks indicate the lack of appropriate validation models in the banking network.

  20. A proposed best practice model validation framework for banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter J. (Riaan de Jongh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. The credit crisis of 2008–2009 provoked added concern about the use of models in finance. Measuring and managing model risk has subsequently come under scrutiny from regulators, supervisors, banks and other financial institutions. Regulatory guidance indicates that meticulous monitoring of all phases of model development and implementation is required to mitigate this risk. Considerable resources must be mobilised for this purpose. The exercise must embrace model development, assembly, implementation, validation and effective governance. Setting: Model validation practices are generally patchy, disparate and sometimes contradictory, and although the Basel Accord and some regulatory authorities have attempted to establish guiding principles, no definite set of global standards exists. Aim: Assessing the available literature for the best validation practices. Methods: This comprehensive literature study provided a background to the complexities of effective model management and focussed on model validation as a component of model risk management. Results: We propose a coherent ‘best practice’ framework for model validation. Scorecard tools are also presented to evaluate if the proposed best practice model validation framework has been adequately assembled and implemented. Conclusion: The proposed best practice model validation framework is designed to assist firms in the construction of an effective, robust and fully compliant model validation programme and comprises three principal elements: model validation governance, policy and process.

  1. Aerosol modelling and validation during ESCOMPTE 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousin, F.; Liousse, C.; Cachier, H.; Bessagnet, B.; Guillaume, B.; Rosset, R.

    The ESCOMPTE 2001 programme (Atmospheric Research. 69(3-4) (2004) 241) has resulted in an exhaustive set of dynamical, radiative, gas and aerosol observations (surface and aircraft measurements). A previous paper (Atmospheric Research. (2004) in press) has dealt with dynamics and gas-phase chemistry. The present paper is an extension to aerosol formation, transport and evolution. To account for important loadings of primary and secondary aerosols and their transformation processes in the ESCOMPTE domain, the ORISAM aerosol module (Atmospheric Environment. 35 (2001) 4751) was implemented on-line in the air-quality Meso-NH-C model. Additional developments have been introduced in ORganic and Inorganic Spectral Aerosol Module (ORISAM) to improve the comparison between simulations and experimental surface and aircraft field data. This paper discusses this comparison for a simulation performed during one selected day, 24 June 2001, during the Intensive Observation Period IOP2b. Our work relies on BC and OCp emission inventories specifically developed for ESCOMPTE. This study confirms the need for a fine resolution aerosol inventory with spectral chemical speciation. BC levels are satisfactorily reproduced, thus validating our emission inventory and its processing through Meso-NH-C. However, comparisons for reactive species generally denote an underestimation of concentrations. Organic aerosol levels are rather well simulated though with a trend to underestimation in the afternoon. Inorganic aerosol species are underestimated for several reasons, some of them have been identified. For sulphates, primary emissions were introduced. Improvement was obtained too for modelled nitrate and ammonium levels after introducing heterogeneous chemistry. However, no modelling of terrigeneous particles is probably a major cause for nitrates and ammonium underestimations. Particle numbers and size distributions are well reproduced, but only in the submicrometer range. Our work points out

  2. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  3. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. Stockman

    2001-09-28

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

  4. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)

  5. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  6. Validation of the community radiative transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shouguo; Yang Ping; Weng Fuzhong; Liu Quanhua; Han Yong; Delst, Paul van; Li Jun; Baum, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    To validate the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed by the U.S. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) model and the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) are combined in order to provide a reference benchmark. Compared with the benchmark, the CRTM appears quite accurate for both clear sky and ice cloud radiance simulations with RMS errors below 0.2 K, except for clouds with small ice particles. In a computer CPU run time comparison, the CRTM is faster than DISORT by approximately two orders of magnitude. Using the operational MODIS cloud products and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) atmospheric profiles as an input, the CRTM is employed to simulate the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances. The CRTM simulations are shown to be in reasonably close agreement with the AIRS measurements (the discrepancies are within 2 K in terms of brightness temperature difference). Furthermore, the impact of uncertainties in the input cloud properties and atmospheric profiles on the CRTM simulations has been assessed. The CRTM-based brightness temperatures (BTs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), for both thin (τ 30) clouds, are highly sensitive to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and cloud top pressure. However, for an optically thick cloud, the CRTM-based BTs are not sensitive to the uncertainties of cloud optical thickness, effective particle size, and atmospheric humidity profiles. On the contrary, the uncertainties of the CRTM-based TOA BTs resulting from effective particle size and optical thickness are not negligible in an optically thin cloud.

  7. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

  8. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....

  9. Validation of models in an imaging infrared simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Willers, C

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available threeprocessesfortransformingtheinformationbetweentheentities. Reality/ Problem Entity Conceptual Model Computerized Model Model Validation ModelVerification Model Qualification Computer Implementation Analysisand Modelling Simulationand Experimentation “Substantiationthata....C.Refsgaard ,ModellingGuidelines-terminology andguidingprinciples, AdvancesinWaterResources, Vol27,No1,January2004,?pp.71-82(12),Elsevier. et.al. [5]N.Oreskes,et.al.,Verification,Validation,andConfirmationof NumericalModelsintheEarthSciences,Science,Vol263, Number...

  10. Model Validation Using Coordinate Distance with Performance Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiann-Shiun Lew

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an innovative approach to model validation for a structure with significant parameter variations. Model uncertainty of the structural dynamics is quantified with the use of a singular value decomposition technique to extract the principal components of parameter change, and an interval model is generated to represent the system with parameter uncertainty. The coordinate vector, corresponding to the identified principal directions, of the validation system is computed. The coordinate distance between the validation system and the identified interval model is used as a metric for model validation. A beam structure with an attached subsystem, which has significant parameter uncertainty, is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  11. System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitmore, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kaffine, Leah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

  12. Test-driven verification/validation of model transformations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    László LENGYEL; Hassan CHARAF

    2015-01-01

    Why is it important to verify/validate model transformations? The motivation is to improve the quality of the trans-formations, and therefore the quality of the generated software artifacts. Verified/validated model transformations make it possible to ensure certain properties of the generated software artifacts. In this way, verification/validation methods can guarantee different requirements stated by the actual domain against the generated/modified/optimized software products. For example, a verified/ validated model transformation can ensure the preservation of certain properties during the model-to-model transformation. This paper emphasizes the necessity of methods that make model transformation verified/validated, discusses the different scenarios of model transformation verification and validation, and introduces the principles of a novel test-driven method for verifying/ validating model transformations. We provide a solution that makes it possible to automatically generate test input models for model transformations. Furthermore, we collect and discuss the actual open issues in the field of verification/validation of model transformations.

  13. A comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators: modelling, validation and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quant, Mario; Elizalde, Hugo; Flores, Abiud; Ramírez, Ricardo; Orta, Pedro; Song, Gangbing

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators (PAs), which accounts for hysteresis, non-linear electric field and dynamic effects. The hysteresis model is based on the widely used general Maxwell slip model, while an enhanced electro-mechanical non-linear model replaces the linear constitutive equations commonly used. Further on, a linear second order model compensates the frequency response of the actuator. Each individual model is fully characterized from experimental data yielded by a specific PA, then incorporated into a comprehensive 'direct' model able to determine the output strain based on the applied input voltage, fully compensating the aforementioned effects, where the term 'direct' represents an electrical-to-mechanical operating path. The 'direct' model was implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment and successfully validated via experimental results, exhibiting higher accuracy and simplicity than many published models. This simplicity would allow a straightforward inclusion of other behaviour such as creep, ageing, material non-linearity, etc, if such parameters are important for a particular application. Based on the same formulation, two other models are also presented: the first is an 'alternate' model intended to operate within a force-controlled scheme (instead of a displacement/position control), thus able to capture the complex mechanical interactions occurring between a PA and its host structure. The second development is an 'inverse' model, able to operate within an open-loop control scheme, that is, yielding a 'linearized' PA behaviour. The performance of the developed models is demonstrated via a numerical sample case simulated in Matlab/Simulink, consisting of a PA coupled to a simple mechanical system, aimed at shifting the natural frequency of the latter

  14. Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, N.

    1991-01-01

    Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs

  15. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  16. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Validation of mentorship model for newly qualified professional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newly qualified professional nurses (NQPNs) allocated to community health care services require the use of validated model to practice independently. Validation was done to adapt and assess if the model is understood and could be implemented by NQPNs and mentors employed in community health care services.

  18. Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment

  19. Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

  20. Validation of Embedded System Verification Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marincic, J.; Mader, Angelika H.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    The result of a model-based requirements verification shows that the model of a system satisfies (or not) formalised system requirements. The verification result is correct only if the model represents the system adequately. No matter what modelling technique we use, what precedes the model

  1. IVIM: modeling, experimental validation and application to animal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fournet, Gabrielle

    2016-01-01

    This PhD thesis is centered on the study of the IVIM ('Intravoxel Incoherent Motion') MRI sequence. This sequence allows for the study of the blood microvasculature such as the capillaries, arterioles and venules. To be sensitive only to moving groups of spins, diffusion gradients are added before and after the 180 degrees pulse of a spin echo (SE) sequence. The signal component corresponding to spins diffusing in the tissue can be separated from the one related to spins travelling in the blood vessels which is called the IVIM signal. These two components are weighted by f IVIM which represents the volume fraction of blood inside the tissue. The IVIM signal is usually modelled by a mono-exponential (ME) function and characterized by a pseudo-diffusion coefficient, D*. We propose instead a bi-exponential IVIM model consisting of a slow pool, characterized by F slow and D* slow corresponding to the capillaries as in the ME model, and a fast pool, characterized by F fast and D* fast, related to larger vessels such as medium-size arterioles and venules. This model was validated experimentally and more information was retrieved by comparing the experimental signals to a dictionary of simulated IVIM signals. The influence of the pulse sequence, the repetition time and the diffusion encoding time was also studied. Finally, the IVIM sequence was applied to the study of an animal model of Alzheimer's disease. (author) [fr

  2. The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove

    2014-01-01

    Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation

  3. Models for Validation of Prior Learning (VPL)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehlers, Søren

    The national policies for the education/training of adults are in the 21st century highly influenced by proposals which are formulated and promoted by The European Union (EU) as well as other transnational players and this shift in policy making has consequences. One is that ideas which in the past...... would have been categorized as utopian can become realpolitik. Validation of Prior Learning (VPL) was in Europe mainly regarded as utopian while universities in the United States of America (USA) were developing ways to obtain credits to those students which was coming with experiences from working life....

  4. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  5. Experimental Validation of Flow Force Models for Fast Switching Valves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Nørgård, Christian

    2017-01-01

    This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties of the surroun......This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties...... to compare and validate different models, where an effort is directed towards capturing the fluid squeeze effect just before material on material contact. The test data is compared with simulation data relying solely on analytic formulations. The general dynamics of the plunger is validated...

  6. Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

  7. A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  8. A practical approach to validating a PD model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, Lydian; Koning, Ruud H.; Lensink, Robert; Medema, M.

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  9. Amendment to Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference excit...... turbine in undisturbed flow. For this data set both the multiplicative model and in particular the simple first order transfer function model can predict the down wind wind speed from upwind wind speed and loading.......The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference...

  10. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the

  11. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  12. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect...... incomplete knowledge of the characteristics inherent to each model. During water immersion, the hydrostatic pressure lowers the peripheral vascular capacity and causes increased thoracic blood volume and high vascular perfusion. In turn, these changes lead to high urinary flow, low vasomotor tone, and a high...

  13. Verification and Validation of Tropospheric Model/Database

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Junho, choi

    1998-01-01

    A verification and validation of tropospheric models and databases has been performed based on ray tracing algorithm, statistical analysis, test on real time system operation, and other technical evaluation process...

  14. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  15. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  16. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  17. Preliminary validation of a Monte Carlo model for IMRT fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Tracy; Lye, Jessica; Mohammadi, Mohammad

    2011-01-01

    Full text: A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta linac, validated for medium to large (10-30 cm) symmetric fields, has been investigated for small, irregular and asymmetric fields suitable for IMRT treatments. The model has been validated with field segments using radiochromic film in solid water. The modelled positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves have been validated using EBT film, In the model, electrons with a narrow energy spectrum are incident on the target and all components of the linac head are included. The MLC is modelled using the EGSnrc MLCE component module. For the validation, a number of single complex IMRT segments with dimensions approximately 1-8 cm were delivered to film in solid water (see Fig, I), The same segments were modelled using EGSnrc by adjusting the MLC leaf positions in the model validated for 10 cm symmetric fields. Dose distributions along the centre of each MLC leaf as determined by both methods were compared. A picket fence test was also performed to confirm the MLC leaf positions. 95% of the points in the modelled dose distribution along the leaf axis agree with the film measurement to within 1%/1 mm for dose difference and distance to agreement. Areas of most deviation occur in the penumbra region. A system has been developed to calculate the MLC leaf positions in the model for any planned field size.

  18. Validation of the simulator neutronics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    The neutronics model in the SRP reactor training simulator computes the variation with time of the neutron population in the reactor core. The power output of a reactor is directly proportional to the neutron population, thus in a very real sense the neutronics model determines the response of the simulator. The geometrical complexity of the reactor control system in SRP reactors requires the neutronics model to provide a detailed, 3D representation of the reactor core. Existing simulator technology does not allow such a detailed representation to run in real-time in a minicomputer environment, thus an entirely different approach to the problem was required. A prompt jump method has been developed in answer to this need

  19. Context discovery using attenuated Bloom codes: model description and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, F.; Heijenk, Geert

    A novel approach to performing context discovery in ad-hoc networks based on the use of attenuated Bloom filters is proposed in this report. In order to investigate the performance of this approach, a model has been developed. This document describes the model and its validation. The model has been

  20. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  1. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  2. Quantitative system validation in model driven design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Hilger; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Raskin, Jean-Francois

    2010-01-01

    The European STREP project Quasimodo1 develops theory, techniques and tool components for handling quantitative constraints in model-driven development of real-time embedded systems, covering in particular real-time, hybrid and stochastic aspects. This tutorial highlights the advances made, focus...

  3. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    & Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation......The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...

  4. Functional Validation of Heteromeric Kainate Receptor Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paramo, Teresa; Brown, Patricia M G E; Musgaard, Maria; Bowie, Derek; Biggin, Philip C

    2017-11-21

    Kainate receptors require the presence of external ions for gating. Most work thus far has been performed on homomeric GluK2 but, in vivo, kainate receptors are likely heterotetramers. Agonists bind to the ligand-binding domain (LBD) which is arranged as a dimer of dimers as exemplified in homomeric structures, but no high-resolution structure currently exists of heteromeric kainate receptors. In a full-length heterotetramer, the LBDs could potentially be arranged either as a GluK2 homomer alongside a GluK5 homomer or as two GluK2/K5 heterodimers. We have constructed models of the LBD dimers based on the GluK2 LBD crystal structures and investigated their stability with molecular dynamics simulations. We have then used the models to make predictions about the functional behavior of the full-length GluK2/K5 receptor, which we confirmed via electrophysiological recordings. A key prediction and observation is that lithium ions bind to the dimer interface of GluK2/K5 heteromers and slow their desensitization. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation

  6. Validation of nuclear models used in space radiation shielding applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.

    2013-01-01

    A program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as these models are developed over time. In this work, simple validation metrics applicable to testing both model accuracy and consistency with experimental data are developed. The developed metrics treat experimental measurement uncertainty as an interval and are therefore applicable to cases in which epistemic uncertainty dominates the experimental data. To demonstrate the applicability of the metrics, nuclear physics models used by NASA for space radiation shielding applications are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by examining subsets of the model parameter space.

  7. Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Frederick T.

    1998-10-01

    This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

  8. Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

  9. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  10. Making Validated Educational Models Central in Preschool Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweinhart, Lawrence J.

    This paper presents some ideas to preschool educators and policy makers about how to make validated educational models central in standards for preschool education and care programs that are available to all 3- and 4-year-olds. Defining an educational model as a coherent body of program practices, curriculum content, program and child, and teacher…

  11. Validation of ASTEC core degradation and containment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruse, Philipp; Brähler, Thimo; Koch, Marco K.

    2014-01-01

    Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum performed in a German funded project validation of in-vessel and containment models of the integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In this paper selected results of this validation are presented. In the in-vessel part, the main point of interest was the validation of the code capability concerning cladding oxidation and hydrogen generation. The ASTEC calculations of QUENCH experiments QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-11 show satisfactory results, despite of some necessary adjustments in the input deck. Furthermore, the oxidation models based on the Cathcart–Pawel and Urbanic–Heidrick correlations are not suitable for higher temperatures while the ASTEC model BEST-FIT based on the Prater–Courtright approach at high temperature gives reliable enough results. One part of the containment model validation was the assessment of three hydrogen combustion models of ASTEC against the experiment BMC Ix9. The simulation results of these models differ from each other and therefore the quality of the simulations depends on the characteristic of each model. Accordingly, the CPA FRONT model, corresponding to the simplest necessary input parameters, provides the best agreement to the experimental data

  12. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  13. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  14. Validating a Technology Enhanced Student-Centered Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Myunghee; Hahn, Jungsun; Chung, Warren

    2015-01-01

    The Technology Enhanced Student Centered Learning (TESCL) Model in this study presents the core factors that ensure the quality of learning in a technology-supported environment. Although the model was conceptually constructed using a student-centered learning framework and drawing upon previous studies, it should be validated through real-world…

  15. Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    . There are however many advantages that could be harvested from such knowledge like size, cost and efficiency improvements. In this paper a recently proposed power requirement model for active loudspeakers is experimentally validated and the model is expanded to include the closed and vented type enclosures...

  16. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  17. Validation and comparison of dispersion models of RTARC DSS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.; Pospisil, M.

    2004-01-01

    RTARC DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) is a computer code developed at the VUJE Trnava, Inc. (Stubna, M. et al, 1993). The code calculations include atmospheric transport and diffusion, dose assessment, evaluation and displaying of the affected zones, evaluation of the early health effects, concentration and dose rate time dependence in the selected sites etc. The simulation of the protective measures (sheltering, iodine administration) is involved. The aim of this paper is to present the process of validation of the RTARC dispersion models. RTARC includes models for calculations of release for very short (Method Monte Carlo - MEMOC), short (Gaussian Straight-Line Model) and long distances (Puff Trajectory Model - PTM). Validation of the code RTARC was performed using the results of comparisons and experiments summarized in the Table 1.: 1. Experiments and comparisons in the process of validation of the system RTARC - experiments or comparison - distance - model. Wind tunnel experiments (Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Muenchen) - Area of NPP - Method Monte Carlo. INEL (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) - short/medium - Gaussian model and multi tracer atmospheric experiment - distances - PTM. Model Validation Kit - short distances - Gaussian model. STEP II.b 'Realistic Case Studies' - long distances - PTM. ENSEMBLE comparison - long distances - PTM (orig.)

  18. Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    In this paper, we seek to present a hybrid method for Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ... This model generally states the numerical value of knowledge .... procedures found in the field of software engineering should be ...

  19. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  20. Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.

  1. Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

  2. The turbulent viscosity models and their experimental validation; Les modeles de viscosite turbulente et leur validation experimentale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)

  3. Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favier, C; Degallier, N; Menkès, C E

    2010-12-01

    Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Field validation of the contaminant transport model, FEMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.-F.V.

    1986-01-01

    The work describes the validation with field data of a finite element model of material transport through aquifers (FEMA). Field data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Idaho, USA and from the 58th Street landfill in Miami, Florida, USA are used. In both cases the model was first calibrated and then integrated over a span of eight years to check on the predictive capability of the model. Both predictive runs gave results that matched well with available data. (author)

  5. Results from the Savannah River Laboratory model validation workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepper, D.W.

    1981-01-01

    To evaluate existing and newly developed air pollution models used in DOE-funded laboratories, the Savannah River Laboratory sponsored a model validation workshop. The workshop used Kr-85 measurements and meteorology data obtained at SRL during 1975 to 1977. Individual laboratories used models to calculate daily, weekly, monthly or annual test periods. Cumulative integrated air concentrations were reported at each grid point and at each of the eight sampler locations

  6. Contact Modelling in Resistance Welding, Part II: Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Quanfeng; Zhang, Wenqi; Bay, Niels

    2006-01-01

    Contact algorithms in resistance welding presented in the previous paper are experimentally validated in the present paper. In order to verify the mechanical contact algorithm, two types of experiments, i.e. sandwich upsetting of circular, cylindrical specimens and compression tests of discs...... with a solid ring projection towards a flat ring, are carried out at room temperature. The complete algorithm, involving not only the mechanical model but also the thermal and electrical models, is validated by projection welding experiments. The experimental results are in satisfactory agreement...

  7. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  8. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  9. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  10. Validation of Computer Models for Homeland Security Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweppe, John E.; Ely, James; Kouzes, Richard T.; McConn, Ronald J.; Pagh, Richard T.; Robinson, Sean M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Borgardt, James D.; Bender, Sarah E.; Earnhart, Alison H.

    2005-01-01

    At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are developing computer models of radiation portal monitors for screening vehicles and cargo. Detailed models of the radiation detection equipment, vehicles, cargo containers, cargos, and radioactive sources have been created. These are used to determine the optimal configuration of detectors and the best alarm algorithms for the detection of items of interest while minimizing nuisance alarms due to the presence of legitimate radioactive material in the commerce stream. Most of the modeling is done with the Monte Carlo code MCNP to describe the transport of gammas and neutrons from extended sources through large, irregularly shaped absorbers to large detectors. A fundamental prerequisite is the validation of the computational models against field measurements. We describe the first step of this validation process, the comparison of the models to measurements with bare static sources

  11. Thermal hydraulic model validation for HOR mixed core fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibcus, H.P.M.; Vries, J.W. de; Leege, P.F.A. de

    1997-01-01

    A thermal-hydraulic core management model has been developed for the Hoger Onderwijsreactor (HOR), a 2 MW pool-type university research reactor. The model was adopted for safety analysis purposes in the framework of HEU/LEU core conversion studies. It is applied in the thermal-hydraulic computer code SHORT (Steady-state HOR Thermal-hydraulics) which is presently in use in designing core configurations and for in-core fuel management. An elaborate measurement program was performed for establishing the core hydraulic characteristics for a variety of conditions. The hydraulic data were obtained with a dummy fuel element with special equipment allowing a.o. direct measurement of the true core flow rate. Using these data the thermal-hydraulic model was validated experimentally. The model, experimental tests, and model validation are discussed. (author)

  12. Validation of the newborn larynx modeling with aerodynamical experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicollas, R; Giordano, J; Garrel, R; Medale, M; Caminat, P; Giovanni, A; Ouaknine, M; Triglia, J M

    2009-06-01

    Many authors have studied adult's larynx modelization, but the mechanisms of newborn's voice production have very rarely been investigated. After validating a numerical model with acoustic data, studies were performed on larynges of human fetuses in order to validate this model with aerodynamical experiments. Anatomical measurements were performed and a simplified numerical model was built using Fluent((R)) with the vocal folds in phonatory position. The results obtained are in good agreement with those obtained by laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and high-frame rate particle image velocimetry (HFR-PIV), on an experimental bench with excised human fetus larynges. It appears that computing with first cry physiological parameters leads to a model which is close to those obtained in experiments with real organs.

  13. Validation of the dynamic model for a pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwingelstein, Gilles.

    1979-01-01

    Dynamic model validation is a necessary procedure to assure that the developed empirical or physical models are satisfactorily representing the dynamic behavior of the actual plant during normal or abnormal transients. For small transients, physical models which represent isolated core, isolated steam generator and the overall pressurized water reactor are described. Using data collected during the step power changes that occured during the startup procedures, comparisons of experimental and actual transients are given at 30% and 100% of full power. The agreement between the transients derived from the model and those recorded on the plant indicates that the developed models are well suited for use for functional or control studies

  14. Development and validation of a mass casualty conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Joan M; Effken, Judith A

    2010-03-01

    To develop and validate a conceptual model that provides a framework for the development and evaluation of information systems for mass casualty events. The model was designed based on extant literature and existing theoretical models. A purposeful sample of 18 experts validated the model. Open-ended questions, as well as a 7-point Likert scale, were used to measure expert consensus on the importance of each construct and its relationship in the model and the usefulness of the model to future research. Computer-mediated applications were used to facilitate a modified Delphi technique through which a panel of experts provided validation for the conceptual model. Rounds of questions continued until consensus was reached, as measured by an interquartile range (no more than 1 scale point for each item); stability (change in the distribution of responses less than 15% between rounds); and percent agreement (70% or greater) for indicator questions. Two rounds of the Delphi process were needed to satisfy the criteria for consensus or stability related to the constructs, relationships, and indicators in the model. The panel reached consensus or sufficient stability to retain all 10 constructs, 9 relationships, and 39 of 44 indicators. Experts viewed the model as useful (mean of 5.3 on a 7-point scale). Validation of the model provides the first step in understanding the context in which mass casualty events take place and identifying variables that impact outcomes of care. This study provides a foundation for understanding the complexity of mass casualty care, the roles that nurses play in mass casualty events, and factors that must be considered in designing and evaluating information-communication systems to support effective triage under these conditions.

  15. Verification and Validation of FAARR Model and Data Envelopment Analysis Models for United States Army Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piskator, Gene

    1998-01-01

    ...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...

  16. Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing

  17. Validation od computational model ALDERSON/EGSnrc for chest radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muniz, Bianca C.; Santos, André L. dos; Menezes, Claudio J.M.

    2017-01-01

    To perform dose studies in situations of exposure to radiation, without exposing individuals, the numerical dosimetry uses Computational Exposure Models (ECM). Composed essentially by a radioactive source simulator algorithm, a voxel phantom representing the human anatomy and a Monte Carlo code, the ECMs must be validated to determine the reliability of the physical array representation. The objective of this work is to validate the ALDERSON / EGSnrc MCE by through comparisons between the experimental measurements obtained with the ionization chamber and virtual simulations using Monte Carlo Method to determine the ratio of the input and output radiation dose. Preliminary results of these comparisons showed that the ECM reproduced the results of the experimental measurements performed with the physical phantom with a relative error of less than 10%, validating the use of this model for simulations of chest radiographs and estimates of radiation doses in tissues in the irradiated structures

  18. A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Leal

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions

  19. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, J; Burkhardt, H; Ivanchenko, V N; Asai, M; Bagulya, A; Grichine, V; Brown, J M C; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Jacquemier, J; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Urban, L; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed. (paper)

  20. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  1. Multiphysics modelling and experimental validation of high concentration photovoltaic modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theristis, Marios; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Sumner, Mike; O'Donovan, Tadhg S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multiphysics modelling approach for concentrating photovoltaics was developed. • An experimental campaign was conducted to validate the models. • The experimental results were in good agreement with the models. • The multiphysics modelling allows the concentrator’s optimisation. - Abstract: High concentration photovoltaics, equipped with high efficiency multijunction solar cells, have great potential in achieving cost-effective and clean electricity generation at utility scale. Such systems are more complex compared to conventional photovoltaics because of the multiphysics effect that is present. Modelling the power output of such systems is therefore crucial for their further market penetration. Following this line, a multiphysics modelling procedure for high concentration photovoltaics is presented in this work. It combines an open source spectral model, a single diode electrical model and a three-dimensional finite element thermal model. In order to validate the models and the multiphysics modelling procedure against actual data, an outdoor experimental campaign was conducted in Albuquerque, New Mexico using a high concentration photovoltaic monomodule that is thoroughly described in terms of its geometry and materials. The experimental results were in good agreement (within 2.7%) with the predicted maximum power point. This multiphysics approach is relatively more complex when compared to empirical models, but besides the overall performance prediction it can also provide better understanding of the physics involved in the conversion of solar irradiance into electricity. It can therefore be used for the design and optimisation of high concentration photovoltaic modules.

  2. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of

  3. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  4. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  5. Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...

  6. Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...

  7. Multiphysics software and the challenge to validating physical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses multi physics software and validation of physical models in the nuclear industry. The major challenge is to convert the general purpose software package to a robust application-specific solution. This requires greater knowledge of the underlying solution techniques and the limitations of the packages. Good user interfaces and neat graphics do not compensate for any deficiencies

  8. Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided

  9. Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, S. B.; Stenseng, Lars; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction...... models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland shows a clear layering. The observed layers from the radar data can be used as an in-situ validation...... correction relative to the changes in the elevation of the surface observed with remote sensing altimetry? What model time resolution is necessary to resolved the observed layering? What model refinements are necessary to give better estimates of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from...

  10. Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

  11. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  12. Verification and Validation of Heat Transfer Model of AGREE Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tak, N. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Seker, V.; Drzewiecki, T. J.; Downar, T. J. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, Univ. of Michigan, Michigan (United States); Kelly, J. M. [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The AGREE code was originally developed as a multi physics simulation code to perform design and safety analysis of Pebble Bed Reactors (PBR). Currently, additional capability for the analysis of Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR) core is in progress. Newly implemented fluid model for a PMR core is based on a subchannel approach which has been widely used in the analyses of light water reactor (LWR) cores. A hexagonal fuel (or graphite block) is discretized into triangular prism nodes having effective conductivities. Then, a meso-scale heat transfer model is applied to the unit cell geometry of a prismatic fuel block. Both unit cell geometries of multi-hole and pin-in-hole types of prismatic fuel blocks are considered in AGREE. The main objective of this work is to verify and validate the heat transfer model newly implemented for a PMR core in the AGREE code. The measured data in the HENDEL experiment were used for the validation of the heat transfer model for a pin-in-hole fuel block. However, the HENDEL tests were limited to only steady-state conditions of pin-in-hole fuel blocks. There exist no available experimental data regarding a heat transfer in multi-hole fuel blocks. Therefore, numerical benchmarks using conceptual problems are considered to verify the heat transfer model of AGREE for multi-hole fuel blocks as well as transient conditions. The CORONA and GAMMA+ codes were used to compare the numerical results. In this work, the verification and validation study were performed for the heat transfer model of the AGREE code using the HENDEL experiment and the numerical benchmarks of selected conceptual problems. The results of the present work show that the heat transfer model of AGREE is accurate and reliable for prismatic fuel blocks. Further validation of AGREE is in progress for a whole reactor problem using the HTTR safety test data such as control rod withdrawal tests and loss-of-forced convection tests.

  13. Validation of the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCourt, Emily A; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Lynch, Anne M; Palestine, Alan G; Wagner, Brandie D; Wymore, Erica; Tomlinson, Lauren A; Binenbaum, Gil

    2018-04-01

    The Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) model uses birth weight, gestational age, and weight gain at the first month of life (WG-28) to predict risk of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). In previous validation studies, the model performed very well, predicting virtually all cases of severe ROP and potentially reducing the number of infants who need ROP examinations, warranting validation in a larger, more diverse population. To validate the performance of the CO-ROP model in a large multicenter cohort. This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study, a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in 29 hospitals in the United States and Canada between January 2006 and June 2012 of 6351 premature infants who received ROP examinations. Sensitivity and specificity for severe (early treatment of ROP [ETROP] type 1 or 2) ROP, and reduction in infants receiving examinations. The CO-ROP model was applied to the infants in the G-ROP data set with all 3 data points (infants would have received examinations if they met all 3 criteria: birth weight, large validation cohort. The model requires all 3 criteria to be met to signal a need for examinations, but some infants with a birth weight or gestational age above the thresholds developed severe ROP. Most of these infants who were not detected by the CO-ROP model had obvious deviation in expected weight trajectories or nonphysiologic weight gain. These findings suggest that the CO-ROP model needs to be revised before considering implementation into clinical practice.

  14. A process improvement model for software verification and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John; Sabolish, George

    1994-01-01

    We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and space station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.

  15. Comparative calculations and validation studies with atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paesler-Sauer, J.

    1986-11-01

    This report presents the results of an intercomparison of different mesoscale dispersion models and measured data of tracer experiments. The types of models taking part in the intercomparison are Gaussian-type, numerical Eulerian, and Lagrangian dispersion models. They are suited for the calculation of the atmospherical transport of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. For the model intercomparison artificial meteorological situations were defined and corresponding arithmetical problems were formulated. For the purpose of model validation real dispersion situations of tracer experiments were used as input data for model calculations; in these cases calculated and measured time-integrated concentrations close to the ground are compared. Finally a valuation of the models concerning their efficiency in solving the problems is carried out by the aid of objective methods. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens; Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K.

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  17. Validated TRNSYS Model for Solar Assisted Space Heating System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, Nedal

    2014-01-01

    The present study involves a validated TRNSYS model for solar assisted space heating system as applied to a residential building in Jordan using new detailed radiation models of the TRNSYS 17.1 and geometric building model Trnsys3d for the Google SketchUp 3D drawing program. The annual heating load for a building (Solar House) which is located at the Royal ScientiFIc Society (RS5) in Jordan is estimated under climatological conditions of Amman. The aim of this Paper is to compare measured thermal performance of the Solar House with that modeled using TRNSYS. The results showed that the annual measured space heating load for the building was 6,188 kWh while the heati.ng load for the modeled building was 6,391 kWh. Moreover, the measured solar fraction for the solar system was 50% while the modeled solar fraction was 55%. A comparison of modeled and measured data resulted in percentage mean absolute errors for solar energy for space heating, auxiliary heating and solar fraction of 13%, 7% and 10%, respectively. The validated model will be useful for long-term performance simulation under different weather and operating conditions.(author)

  18. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens (Inspecta Technology AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K. (Center for Welded Structures Research, Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States))

    2009-06-15

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  19. Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

  20. Validation of an O-18 leaf water enrichment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeggi, M.; Saurer, M.; Siegwolf, R.

    2002-03-01

    The seasonal trend in {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} in leaf organic matter of spruce needles of mature trees could be modelled for two years. The seasonality was mainly explained by the {delta}{sup 18}O of top-soil water, whereas between years differences were due to variation in air humidity. Application of a third year's data set improved the correlation between modelled and measured {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} and thus validated our extended Dongmann model. (author)

  1. Validation study of safety assessment model for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munakata, Masahiro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-12-01

    The JAERI-AECL collaboration research program has been conducted to validate a groundwater flow and radionuclide transport models for safety assessment. JAERI have developed a geostatistical model for radionuclide transport through a heterogeneous geological media and verify using experimental results of field tracer tests. The simulated tracer plumes explain favorably the experimental tracer plumes. A regional groundwater flow and transport model using site-scale parameter obtained from tracer tests have been verified by comparing simulation results with observation ones of natural environmental tracer. (author)

  2. Numerical Validation of Chemical Compositional Model for Wettability Alteration Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekbauov, Bakhbergen; Berdyshev, Abdumauvlen; Baishemirov, Zharasbek; Bau, Domenico

    2017-12-01

    Chemical compositional simulation of enhanced oil recovery and surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation processes is a complex task that involves solving dozens of equations for all grid blocks representing a reservoir. In the present work, we perform a numerical validation of the newly developed mathematical formulation which satisfies the conservation laws of mass and energy and allows applying a sequential solution approach to solve the governing equations separately and implicitly. Through its application to the numerical experiment using a wettability alteration model and comparisons with existing chemical compositional model's numerical results, the new model has proven to be practical, reliable and stable.

  3. Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, David J.; Ng, Wanyi

    2018-01-01

    Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.

  4. Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colson, Abigail R.; Cooke, Roger M.

    2017-01-01

    We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before focusing on linear pooling of expert judgments with equal weights and performance-based weights. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting in all but 1 of the 33 studies in-sample. True out-of-sample validation is rarely possible for Classical Model studies, and cross validation techniques that split calibration questions into a training and test set are used instead. Performance weighting incurs an “out-of-sample penalty” and its statistical accuracy out-of-sample is lower than that of equal weighting. However, as a function of training set size, the statistical accuracy of performance-based combinations reaches 75% of the equal weight value when the training set includes 80% of calibration variables. At this point the training set is sufficiently powerful to resolve differences in individual expert performance. The information of performance-based combinations is double that of equal weighting when the training set is at least 50% of the set of calibration variables. Previous out-of-sample validation work used a Total Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on all splits of the calibration questions into training and test subsets, which is expensive to compute and includes small training sets of dubious value. As an alternative, we propose an Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on averaging the product of statistical accuracy and information over all training sets sized at 80% of the calibration set. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting on this Out-of-Sample Validity Index in 26 of the 33 post-2006 studies; the probability of 26 or more successes on 33 trials if there were no difference between performance

  5. ADMS-AIRPORT: MODEL INTER-COMPARISIONS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    OpenAIRE

    Carruthers, David; McHugh, Christine; Church, Stephanie; Jackson, Mark; Williams, Matt; Price, Catheryn; Lad, Chetan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: The functionality of ADMS-Airport and details of its use in the Model Inter-comparison Study of the Project for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow Airport (PSDH) have previously been presented, Carruthers et al (2007). A distinguishing feature is the treatment of jet engine emissions as moving jet sources rather than averaging these emissions into volume sources as is the case in some other models. In this presentation two further studies are presented which each contribu...

  6. Approaches to Validation of Models for Low Gravity Fluid Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chato, David J.; Marchetta, Jeffery; Hochstein, John I.; Kassemi, Mohammad

    2005-01-01

    This paper details the author experiences with the validation of computer models to predict low gravity fluid behavior. It reviews the literature of low gravity fluid behavior as a starting point for developing a baseline set of test cases. It examines authors attempts to validate their models against these cases and the issues they encountered. The main issues seem to be that: Most of the data is described by empirical correlation rather than fundamental relation; Detailed measurements of the flow field have not been made; Free surface shapes are observed but through thick plastic cylinders, and therefore subject to a great deal of optical distortion; and Heat transfer process time constants are on the order of minutes to days but the zero-gravity time available has been only seconds.

  7. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  8. Modeling and Simulation Behavior Validation Methodology and Extension Model Validation for the Individual Soldier

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    domains. Major model functions include: • Ground combat: Light and heavy forces. • Air mobile forces. • Future forces. • Fixed-wing and rotary-wing...Constraints: • Study must be completed no later than 31 December 2014. • Entity behavior limited to select COMBATXXI Mobility , Unmanned Aerial System...and SQL backend , as well as any open application programming interface API. • Allows data transparency and data driven navigation through the model

  9. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.

    2017-01-01

    Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid

  10. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gomes

    Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to

  11. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-09-24

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  12. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-10-31

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  13. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-12-18

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  14. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolley, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS MandO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS MandO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS MandO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS MandO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  15. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M andO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M andO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M andO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M andO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  16. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Univercity of Patras, School of Medicine, Medical Physics Department, 265 00 Patras (Greece); Bakas, A [Technological Educational Institution of Athens, Department of Radiography, 122 10 Athens (Greece); Tzanakos, G [University of Athens, Department of Physics, Divission of Nuclear and Particle Physics, 157 71 Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors) 16 refs, 4 figs

  17. Towards Model Validation and Verification with SAT Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Gogolla, Martin

    2010-01-01

    After sketching how system development and the UML (Unified Modeling Language) and the OCL (Object Constraint Language) are related, validation and verification with the tool USE (UML-based Specification Environment) is demonstrated. As a more efficient alternative for verification tasks, two approaches using SAT-based techniques are put forward: First, a direct encoding of UML and OCL with Boolean variables and propositional formulas, and second, an encoding employing an...

  18. Trailing Edge Noise Model Validation and Application to Airfoil Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertagnolio, Franck; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Bak, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this article is twofold. First, an existing trailing edge noise model is validated by comparing with airfoil surface pressure fluctuations and far field sound pressure levels measured in three different experiments. The agreement is satisfactory in one case but poor in two other cases...... across the boundary layer near the trailing edge and to a lesser extent by a smaller boundary layer displacement thickness. ©2010 American Society of Mechanical Engineers...

  19. Experimental Validation of a Permeability Model for Enrichment Membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orellano, Pablo; Brasnarof, Daniel; Florido Pablo

    2003-01-01

    An experimental loop with a real scale diffuser, in a single enrichment-stage configuration, was operated with air at different process conditions, in order to characterize the membrane permeability.Using these experimental data, an analytical geometric-and-morphologic-based model was validated.It is conclude that a new set of independent measurements, i.e. enrichment, is necessary in order to fully characterize diffusers, because of its internal parameters are not univocally determinated with permeability experimental data only

  20. Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

    2007-01-01

    Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Eve...... requirements, where the system to be built must explicitly support the interaction between people within a pervasive cooperative workflow execution. A case study from a real project is used to illustrate the proposed approach....

  1. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spyrou, G.; Panayiotakis, G.; Bakas, A.; Tzanakos, G.

    1998-01-01

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors)

  2. Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

    2015-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

  3. Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  4. Methods for Geometric Data Validation of 3d City Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D.; Alam, N.; Wewetzer, M.; Pries, M.; Coors, V.

    2015-12-01

    Geometric quality of 3D city models is crucial for data analysis and simulation tasks, which are part of modern applications of the data (e.g. potential heating energy consumption of city quarters, solar potential, etc.). Geometric quality in these contexts is however a different concept as it is for 2D maps. In the latter case, aspects such as positional or temporal accuracy and correctness represent typical quality metrics of the data. They are defined in ISO 19157 and should be mentioned as part of the metadata. 3D data has a far wider range of aspects which influence their quality, plus the idea of quality itself is application dependent. Thus, concepts for definition of quality are needed, including methods to validate these definitions. Quality on this sense means internal validation and detection of inconsistent or wrong geometry according to a predefined set of rules. A useful starting point would be to have correct geometry in accordance with ISO 19107. A valid solid should consist of planar faces which touch their neighbours exclusively in defined corner points and edges. No gaps between them are allowed, and the whole feature must be 2-manifold. In this paper, we present methods to validate common geometric requirements for building geometry. Different checks based on several algorithms have been implemented to validate a set of rules derived from the solid definition mentioned above (e.g. water tightness of the solid or planarity of its polygons), as they were developed for the software tool CityDoctor. The method of each check is specified, with a special focus on the discussion of tolerance values where they are necessary. The checks include polygon level checks to validate the correctness of each polygon, i.e. closeness of the bounding linear ring and planarity. On the solid level, which is only validated if the polygons have passed validation, correct polygon orientation is checked, after self-intersections outside of defined corner points and edges

  5. Validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupka, K.M.; Jenne, E.A.; Deutsch, W.J.

    1983-09-01

    As part of the Geochemical Modeling and Nuclide/Rock/Groundwater Interactions Studies Program, a study was conducted to partially validate the WATEQ4 aqueous speciation-solubility geochemical model for uranium. The solubility controls determined with the WATEQ4 geochemical model were in excellent agreement with those laboratory studies in which the solids schoepite [UO 2 (OH) 2 . H 2 O], UO 2 (OH) 2 , and rutherfordine ((UO 2 CO 3 ) were identified as actual solubility controls for uranium. The results of modeling solution analyses from laboratory studies of uranyl phosphate solids, however, identified possible errors in the characterization of solids in the original solubility experiments. As part of this study, significant deficiencies in the WATEQ4 thermodynamic data base for uranium solutes and solids were corrected. Revisions included recalculation of selected uranium reactions. Additionally, thermodynamic data for the hydroxyl complexes of U(VI), including anionic (VI) species, were evaluated (to the extent permitted by the available data). Vanadium reactions were also added to the thermodynamic data base because uranium-vanadium solids can exist in natural ground-water systems. This study is only a partial validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model because the available laboratory solubility studies do not cover the range of solid phases, alkaline pH values, and concentrations of inorganic complexing ligands needed to evaluate the potential solubility of uranium in ground waters associated with various proposed nuclear waste repositories. Further validation of this or other geochemical models for uranium will require careful determinations of uraninite solubility over the pH range of 7 to 10 under highly reducing conditions and of uranyl hydroxide and phosphate solubilities over the pH range of 7 to 10 under oxygenated conditions

  6. Validation of fracture flow models in the Stripa project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.; Dershowitz, W.; Long, J.; Hodgkinson, D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of Phase III of the Stripa Project is to develop and evaluate approaches for the prediction of groundwater flow and nuclide transport in a specific unexplored volume of the Stripa granite and make a comparison with data from field measurements. During the first stage of the project, a prediction of inflow to the D-holes, an array of six parallel closely spaced 100m boreholes, was made based on data from six other boreholes. This data included fracture geometry, stress, single borehole geophysical logging, crosshole and reflection radar and seismic tomogram, head monitoring and single hole packer test measurements. Maps of fracture traces on the drift walls have also been made. The D-holes are located along a future Validation Drift which will be excavated. The water inflow to the D-holes has been measured in an experiment called the Simulated Drift Experiment. The paper reviews the Simulated Drift Experiment validation exercise. Following a discussion of the approach to validation, the characterization data and its preliminary interpretation are summarised and commented upon. That work has proved feasible to carry through all the complex and interconnected tasks associated with the gathering and interpretation of characterization data, the development and application of complex models, and the comparison with measured inflows. This exercise has provided detailed feed-back to the experimental and theoretical work required for measurements and predictions of flow into the Validation Drift. Computer codes used: CHANGE, FRACMAN, MAFIC, NAPSAC and TRINET. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 19 refs

  7. Image decomposition as a tool for validating stress analysis models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mottershead J.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is good practice to validate analytical and numerical models used in stress analysis for engineering design by comparison with measurements obtained from real components either in-service or in the laboratory. In reality, this critical step is often neglected or reduced to placing a single strain gage at the predicted hot-spot of stress. Modern techniques of optical analysis allow full-field maps of displacement, strain and, or stress to be obtained from real components with relative ease and at modest cost. However, validations continued to be performed only at predicted and, or observed hot-spots and most of the wealth of data is ignored. It is proposed that image decomposition methods, commonly employed in techniques such as fingerprinting and iris recognition, can be employed to validate stress analysis models by comparing all of the key features in the data from the experiment and the model. Image decomposition techniques such as Zernike moments and Fourier transforms have been used to decompose full-field distributions for strain generated from optical techniques such as digital image correlation and thermoelastic stress analysis as well as from analytical and numerical models by treating the strain distributions as images. The result of the decomposition is 101 to 102 image descriptors instead of the 105 or 106 pixels in the original data. As a consequence, it is relatively easy to make a statistical comparison of the image descriptors from the experiment and from the analytical/numerical model and to provide a quantitative assessment of the stress analysis.

  8. Validating and Verifying Biomathematical Models of Human Fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Siera Brooke; Quintero, Luis Ortiz; Flynn-Evans, Erin

    2015-01-01

    Airline pilots experience acute and chronic sleep deprivation, sleep inertia, and circadian desynchrony due to the need to schedule flight operations around the clock. This sleep loss and circadian desynchrony gives rise to cognitive impairments, reduced vigilance and inconsistent performance. Several biomathematical models, based principally on patterns observed in circadian rhythms and homeostatic drive, have been developed to predict a pilots levels of fatigue or alertness. These models allow for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and commercial airlines to make decisions about pilot capabilities and flight schedules. Although these models have been validated in a laboratory setting, they have not been thoroughly tested in operational environments where uncontrolled factors, such as environmental sleep disrupters, caffeine use and napping, may impact actual pilot alertness and performance. We will compare the predictions of three prominent biomathematical fatigue models (McCauley Model, Harvard Model, and the privately-sold SAFTE-FAST Model) to actual measures of alertness and performance. We collected sleep logs, movement and light recordings, psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and urinary melatonin (a marker of circadian phase) from 44 pilots in a short-haul commercial airline over one month. We will statistically compare with the model predictions to lapses on the PVT and circadian phase. We will calculate the sensitivity and specificity of each model prediction under different scheduling conditions. Our findings will aid operational decision-makers in determining the reliability of each model under real-world scheduling situations.

  9. Validation of High Displacement Piezoelectric Actuator Finite Element Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taleghani, B. K.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents the results obtained by using NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Regitered Trademark) finite element codes to predict doming of the THUNDER piezoelectric actuators during the manufacturing process and subsequent straining due to an applied input voltage. To effectively use such devices in engineering applications, modeling and characterization are essential. Length, width, dome height, and thickness are important parameters for users of such devices. Therefore, finite element models were used to assess the effects of these parameters. NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Registered Trademark) used different methods for modeling piezoelectric effects. In NASTRAN(Registered Trademark), a thermal analogy was used to represent voltage at nodes as equivalent temperatures, while ANSYS(Registered Trademark) processed the voltage directly using piezoelectric finite elements. The results of finite element models were validated by using the experimental results.

  10. Calibration and validation of a general infiltration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Ranjan Kumar, Shashi; Singh, Vijay P.

    1999-08-01

    A general infiltration model proposed by Singh and Yu (1990) was calibrated and validated using a split sampling approach for 191 sets of infiltration data observed in the states of Minnesota and Georgia in the USA. Of the five model parameters, fc (the final infiltration rate), So (the available storage space) and exponent n were found to be more predictable than the other two parameters: m (exponent) and a (proportionality factor). A critical examination of the general model revealed that it is related to the Soil Conservation Service (1956) curve number (SCS-CN) method and its parameter So is equivalent to the potential maximum retention of the SCS-CN method and is, in turn, found to be a function of soil sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity. The general model was found to describe infiltration rate with time varying curve number.

  11. Condensation of steam in horizontal pipes: model development and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szijarto, R.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis submitted to the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH in Zurich presents the development and validation of a model for the condensation of steam in horizontal pipes. Condensation models were introduced and developed particularly for the application in the emergency cooling system of a Gen-III+ boiling water reactor. Such an emergency cooling system consists of slightly inclined horizontal pipes, which are immersed in a cold water tank. The pipes are connected to the reactor pressure vessel. They are responsible for a fast depressurization of the reactor core in the case of accident. Condensation in horizontal pipes was investigated with both one-dimensional system codes (RELAP5) and three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics software (ANSYS FLUENT). The performance of the RELAP5 code was not sufficient for transient condensation processes. Therefore, a mechanistic model was developed and implemented. Four models were tested on the LAOKOON facility, which analysed direct contact condensation in a horizontal duct

  12. Development and Validation of a 3-Dimensional CFB Furnace Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vepsäläinen, Arl; Myöhänen, Karl; Hyppäneni, Timo; Leino, Timo; Tourunen, Antti

    At Foster Wheeler, a three-dimensional CFB furnace model is essential part of knowledge development of CFB furnace process regarding solid mixing, combustion, emission formation and heat transfer. Results of laboratory and pilot scale phenomenon research are utilized in development of sub-models. Analyses of field-test results in industrial-scale CFB boilers including furnace profile measurements are simultaneously carried out with development of 3-dimensional process modeling, which provides a chain of knowledge that is utilized as feedback for phenomenon research. Knowledge gathered by model validation studies and up-to-date parameter databases are utilized in performance prediction and design development of CFB boiler furnaces. This paper reports recent development steps related to modeling of combustion and formation of char and volatiles of various fuel types in CFB conditions. Also a new model for predicting the formation of nitrogen oxides is presented. Validation of mixing and combustion parameters for solids and gases are based on test balances at several large-scale CFB boilers combusting coal, peat and bio-fuels. Field-tests including lateral and vertical furnace profile measurements and characterization of solid materials provides a window for characterization of fuel specific mixing and combustion behavior in CFB furnace at different loads and operation conditions. Measured horizontal gas profiles are projection of balance between fuel mixing and reactions at lower part of furnace and are used together with both lateral temperature profiles at bed and upper parts of furnace for determination of solid mixing and combustion model parameters. Modeling of char and volatile based formation of NO profiles is followed by analysis of oxidizing and reducing regions formed due lower furnace design and mixing characteristics of fuel and combustion airs effecting to formation ofNO furnace profile by reduction and volatile-nitrogen reactions. This paper presents

  13. Proceedings of the first SRL model validation workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckner, M.R.

    1981-10-01

    The Clean Air Act and its amendments have added importance to knowing the accuracy of mathematical models used to assess transport and diffusion of environmental pollutants. These models are the link between air quality standards and emissions. To test the accuracy of a number of these models, a Model Validation Workshop was held. The meteorological, source-term, and Kr-85 concentration data bases for emissions from the separations areas of the Savannah River Plant during 1975 through 1977 were used to compare calculations from various atmospheric dispersion models. The results of statistical evaluation of the models show a degradation in the ability to predict pollutant concentrations as the time span over which the calculations are made is reduced. Forecasts for annual time periods were reasonably accurate. Weighted-average squared correlation coefficients (R 2 ) were 0.74 for annual, 0.28 for monthly, 0.21 for weekly, and 0.18 for twice-daily predictions. Model performance varied within each of these four categories; however, the results indicate that the more complex, three-dimensional models provide only marginal increases in accuracy. The increased costs of running these codes is not warranted for long-term releases or for conditions of relatively simple terrain and meteorology. The overriding factor in the calculational accuracy is the accurate description of the wind field. Further improvements of the numerical accuracy of the complex models is not nearly as important as accurate calculations of the meteorological transport conditions

  14. Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung

    2017-12-01

    This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.

  15. Contaminant transport model validation: The Oak Ridge Reservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, R.R.; Ketelle, R.H.

    1988-09-01

    In the complex geologic setting on the Oak Ridge Reservation, hydraulic conductivity is anisotropic and flow is strongly influenced by an extensive and largely discontinuous fracture network. Difficulties in describing and modeling the aquifer system prompted a study to obtain aquifer property data to be used in a groundwater flow model validation experiment. Characterization studies included the performance of an extensive suite of aquifer test within a 600-square-meter area to obtain aquifer property values to describe the flow field in detail. Following aquifer test, a groundwater tracer test was performed under ambient conditions to verify the aquifer analysis. Tracer migration data in the near-field were used in model calibration to predict tracer arrival time and concentration in the far-field. Despite the extensive aquifer testing, initial modeling inaccurately predicted tracer migration direction. Initial tracer migration rates were consistent with those predicted by the model; however, changing environmental conditions resulted in an unanticipated decay in tracer movement. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy of groundwater flow and contaminant transport models on the Oak Ridge Reservation depends on defining the resolution required, followed by field testing and model grid definition at compatible scales. The use of tracer tests, both as a characterization method and to verify model results, provides the highest level of resolution of groundwater flow characteristics. 3 refs., 4 figs

  16. Prospective validation of pathologic complete response models in rectal cancer: Transferability and reproducibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Soest, Johan; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Stiphout, Ruud; Gatta, Roberto; Damiani, Andrea; Valentini, Vincenzo; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2017-09-01

    Multiple models have been developed to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. Unfortunately, validation of these models normally omit the implications of cohort differences on prediction model performance. In this work, we will perform a prospective validation of three pCR models, including information whether this validation will target transferability or reproducibility (cohort differences) of the given models. We applied a novel methodology, the cohort differences model, to predict whether a patient belongs to the training or to the validation cohort. If the cohort differences model performs well, it would suggest a large difference in cohort characteristics meaning we would validate the transferability of the model rather than reproducibility. We tested our method in a prospective validation of three existing models for pCR prediction in 154 patients. Our results showed a large difference between training and validation cohort for one of the three tested models [Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) cohort differences model: 0.85], signaling the validation leans towards transferability. Two out of three models had a lower AUC for validation (0.66 and 0.58), one model showed a higher AUC in the validation cohort (0.70). We have successfully applied a new methodology in the validation of three prediction models, which allows us to indicate if a validation targeted transferability (large differences between training/validation cohort) or reproducibility (small cohort differences). © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  17. MOLECULAR VALIDATED MODEL FOR ADSORPTION OF PROTONATED DYE ON LDH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Braga

    Full Text Available Abstract Hydrotalcite-like compounds are anionic clays of scientific and technological interest for their use as ion exchange materials, catalysts and modified electrodes. Surface phenomenon are important for all these applications. Although conventional analytical methods have enabled progress in understanding the behavior of anionic clays in solution, an evaluation at the atomic scale of the dynamics of their ionic interactions has never been performed. Molecular simulation has become an extremely useful tool to provide this perspective. Our purpose is to validate a simplified model for the adsorption of 5-benzoyl-4-hydroxy-2-methoxy-benzenesulfonic acid (MBSA, a prototype molecule of anionic dyes, onto a hydrotalcite surface. Monte Carlo simulations were performed in the canonical ensemble with MBSA ions and a pore model of hydrotalcite using UFF and ClayFF force fields. The proposed molecular model has allowed us to reproduce experimental data of atomic force microscopy. Influences of protonation during the adsorption process are also presented.

  18. Validation of the replica trick for simple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2018-04-01

    We discuss the replica analytic continuation using several simple models in order to prove mathematically the validity of the replica analysis, which is used in a wide range of fields related to large-scale complex systems. While replica analysis consists of two analytical techniques—the replica trick (or replica analytic continuation) and the thermodynamical limit (and/or order parameter expansion)—we focus our study on replica analytic continuation, which is the mathematical basis of the replica trick. We apply replica analysis to solve a variety of analytical models, and examine the properties of replica analytic continuation. Based on the positive results for these models we propose that replica analytic continuation is a robust procedure in replica analysis.

  19. Experimental Validation of a Dynamic Model for Lightweight Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Gasparetto

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, one of the main topics in robotics research is dynamic performance improvement by means of a lightening of the overall system structure. The effective motion and control of these lightweight robotic systems occurs with the use of suitable motion planning and control process. In order to do so, model-based approaches can be adopted by exploiting accurate dynamic models that take into account the inertial and elastic terms that are usually neglected in a heavy rigid link configuration. In this paper, an effective method for modelling spatial lightweight industrial robots based on an Equivalent Rigid Link System approach is considered from an experimental validation perspective. A dynamic simulator implementing the formulation is used and an experimental test-bench is set-up. Experimental tests are carried out with a benchmark L-shape mechanism.

  20. Analytical thermal model validation for Cassini radioisotope thermoelectric generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, E.I.

    1997-01-01

    The Saturn-bound Cassini spacecraft is designed to rely, without precedent, on the waste heat from its three radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) to warm the propulsion module subsystem, and the RTG end dome temperature is a key determining factor of the amount of waste heat delivered. A previously validated SINDA thermal model of the RTG was the sole guide to understanding its complex thermal behavior, but displayed large discrepancies against some initial thermal development test data. A careful revalidation effort led to significant modifications and adjustments of the model, which result in a doubling of the radiative heat transfer from the heat source support assemblies to the end domes and bring up the end dome and flange temperature predictions to within 2 C of the pertinent test data. The increased inboard end dome temperature has a considerable impact on thermal control of the spacecraft central body. The validation process offers an example of physically-driven analytical model calibration with test data from not only an electrical simulator but also a nuclear-fueled flight unit, and has established the end dome temperatures of a flight RTG where no in-flight or ground-test data existed before

  1. Lessons learned from recent geomagnetic disturbance model validation activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Welling, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    Due to concerns pertaining to geomagnetically induced current impact on ground-based infrastructure, there has been significantly elevated interest in applying models for local geomagnetic disturbance or "delta-B" predictions. Correspondingly there has been elevated need for testing the quality of the delta-B predictions generated by the modern empirical and physics-based models. To address this need, community-wide activities were launched under the GEM Challenge framework and one culmination of the activities was the validation and selection of models that were transitioned into operations at NOAA SWPC. The community-wide delta-B action is continued under the CCMC-facilitated International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and its "Ground Magnetic Perturbations: dBdt, delta-B, GICs, FACs" working group. The new delta-B working group builds on the past experiences and expands the collaborations to cover the entire international space weather community. In this paper, we discuss the key lessons learned from the past delta-B validation exercises and lay out the path forward for building on those experience under the new delta-B working group.

  2. Simulation Methods and Validation Criteria for Modeling Cardiac Ventricular Electrophysiology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankarjee Krishnamoorthi

    Full Text Available We describe a sequence of methods to produce a partial differential equation model of the electrical activation of the ventricles. In our framework, we incorporate the anatomy and cardiac microstructure obtained from magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging of a New Zealand White rabbit, the Purkinje structure and the Purkinje-muscle junctions, and an electrophysiologically accurate model of the ventricular myocytes and tissue, which includes transmural and apex-to-base gradients of action potential characteristics. We solve the electrophysiology governing equations using the finite element method and compute both a 6-lead precordial electrocardiogram (ECG and the activation wavefronts over time. We are particularly concerned with the validation of the various methods used in our model and, in this regard, propose a series of validation criteria that we consider essential. These include producing a physiologically accurate ECG, a correct ventricular activation sequence, and the inducibility of ventricular fibrillation. Among other components, we conclude that a Purkinje geometry with a high density of Purkinje muscle junctions covering the right and left ventricular endocardial surfaces as well as transmural and apex-to-base gradients in action potential characteristics are necessary to produce ECGs and time activation plots that agree with physiological observations.

  3. Simulation Methods and Validation Criteria for Modeling Cardiac Ventricular Electrophysiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamoorthi, Shankarjee; Perotti, Luigi E; Borgstrom, Nils P; Ajijola, Olujimi A; Frid, Anna; Ponnaluri, Aditya V; Weiss, James N; Qu, Zhilin; Klug, William S; Ennis, Daniel B; Garfinkel, Alan

    2014-01-01

    We describe a sequence of methods to produce a partial differential equation model of the electrical activation of the ventricles. In our framework, we incorporate the anatomy and cardiac microstructure obtained from magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging of a New Zealand White rabbit, the Purkinje structure and the Purkinje-muscle junctions, and an electrophysiologically accurate model of the ventricular myocytes and tissue, which includes transmural and apex-to-base gradients of action potential characteristics. We solve the electrophysiology governing equations using the finite element method and compute both a 6-lead precordial electrocardiogram (ECG) and the activation wavefronts over time. We are particularly concerned with the validation of the various methods used in our model and, in this regard, propose a series of validation criteria that we consider essential. These include producing a physiologically accurate ECG, a correct ventricular activation sequence, and the inducibility of ventricular fibrillation. Among other components, we conclude that a Purkinje geometry with a high density of Purkinje muscle junctions covering the right and left ventricular endocardial surfaces as well as transmural and apex-to-base gradients in action potential characteristics are necessary to produce ECGs and time activation plots that agree with physiological observations.

  4. High Turbidity Solis Clear Sky Model: Development and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Ineichen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Solis clear sky model is a spectral scheme based on radiative transfer calculations and the Lambert–Beer relation. Its broadband version is a simplified fast analytical version; it is limited to broadband aerosol optical depths lower than 0.45, which is a weakness when applied in countries with very high turbidity such as China or India. In order to extend the use of the original simplified version of the model for high turbidity values, we developed a new version of the broadband Solis model based on radiative transfer calculations, valid for turbidity values up to 7, for the three components, global, beam, and diffuse, and for the four aerosol types defined by Shettle and Fenn. A validation of low turbidity data acquired in Geneva shows slightly better results than the previous version. On data acquired at sites presenting higher turbidity data, the bias stays within ±4% for the beam and the global irradiances, and the standard deviation around 5% for clean and stable condition data and around 12% for questionable data and variable sky conditions.

  5. Validating modeled turbulent heat fluxes across large freshwater surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofgren, B. M.; Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Gronewold, A.; Anderson, E. J.; Fitzpatrick, L.; Blanken, P.; Spence, C.; Lenters, J. D.; Xiao, C.; Charusambot, U.

    2017-12-01

    Turbulent fluxes of latent and sensible heat are important physical processes that influence the energy and water budgets of the Great Lakes. Validation and improvement of bulk flux algorithms to simulate these turbulent heat fluxes are critical for accurate prediction of hydrodynamics, water levels, weather, and climate over the region. Here we consider five heat flux algorithms from several model systems; the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model, and the Large Lake Thermodynamics Model, which are used in research and operational environments and concentrate on different aspects of the Great Lakes' physical system, but interface at the lake surface. The heat flux algorithms were isolated from each model and driven by meteorological data from over-lake stations in the Great Lakes Evaporation Network. The simulation results were compared with eddy covariance flux measurements at the same stations. All models show the capacity to the seasonal cycle of the turbulent heat fluxes. Overall, the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment algorithm in FVCOM has the best agreement with eddy covariance measurements. Simulations with the other four algorithms are overall improved by updating the parameterization of roughness length scales of temperature and humidity. Agreement between modelled and observed fluxes notably varied with geographical locations of the stations. For example, at the Long Point station in Lake Erie, observed fluxes are likely influenced by the upwind land surface while the simulations do not take account of the land surface influence, and therefore the agreement is worse in general.

  6. Seismic behaviour of PWR fuel assemblies model and its validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Queval, J.C.; Gantenbein, F.; Brochard, D.; Benjedidia, A.

    1991-01-01

    The validity of the models simulating the seismic behaviour of PWR cores can only be exactly demonstrated by seismic testing on groups of fuel assemblies. Shake table seismic tests of rows of assembly mock-ups, conducted by the CEA in conjunction with FRAMATOME, are presented in reference /1/. This paper addresses the initial comparisons between model and test results for a row of five assemblies in air. Two models are used: a model with a single beam per assembly, used regularly in accident analyses, and described in reference /2/, and a more refined 2-beam per assembly model, geared mainly towards interpretation of test results. The 2-beam model is discussed first, together with parametric studies used to characterize it, and the study of the assembly row for a period limited to 2 seconds and for different excitation levels. For the 1-beam model assembly used in applications, the row is studied over the total test time, i.e twenty seconds, which covers the average duration of the core seismic behaviour studies, and for a peak exciting acceleration value at 0.4 g, which corresponds to the SSE level of the reference spectrum

  7. Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

    1992-02-01

    Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

  8. Numerical simulation and experimental validation of aircraft ground deicing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Chen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Aircraft ground deicing plays an important role of guaranteeing the aircraft safety. In practice, most airports generally use as many deicing fluids as possible to remove the ice, which causes the waste of the deicing fluids and the pollution of the environment. Therefore, the model of aircraft ground deicing should be built to establish the foundation for the subsequent research, such as the optimization of the deicing fluid consumption. In this article, the heat balance of the deicing process is depicted, and the dynamic model of the deicing process is provided based on the analysis of the deicing mechanism. In the dynamic model, the surface temperature of the deicing fluids and the ice thickness are regarded as the state parameters, while the fluid flow rate, the initial temperature, and the injection time of the deicing fluids are treated as control parameters. Ignoring the heat exchange between the deicing fluids and the environment, the simplified model is obtained. The rationality of the simplified model is verified by the numerical simulation and the impacts of the flow rate, the initial temperature and the injection time on the deicing process are investigated. To verify the model, the semi-physical experiment system is established, consisting of the low-constant temperature test chamber, the ice simulation system, the deicing fluid heating and spraying system, the simulated wing, the test sensors, and the computer measure and control system. The actual test data verify the validity of the dynamic model and the accuracy of the simulation analysis.

  9. Validation of Symptom Validity Tests Using a "Child-model" of Adult Cognitive Impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, A.; Spaan, P. E. J.; Schmand, B.

    2010-01-01

    Validation studies of symptom validity tests (SVTs) in children are uncommon. However, since children's cognitive abilities are not yet fully developed, their performance may provide additional support for the validity of these measures in adult populations. Four SVTs, the Test of Memory Malingering

  10. Validation of symptom validity tests using a "child-model" of adult cognitive impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, A.; Spaan, P.E.J.; Schmand, B.

    2010-01-01

    Validation studies of symptom validity tests (SVTs) in children are uncommon. However, since children’s cognitive abilities are not yet fully developed, their performance may provide additional support for the validity of these measures in adult populations. Four SVTs, the Test of Memory Malingering

  11. Smooth particle hydrodynamic modeling and validation for impact bird substitution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babu, Arun; Prasad, Ganesh

    2018-04-01

    Bird strike events incidentally occur and can at times be fatal for air frame structures. Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) and such other ones mandates aircrafts to be modeled to withstand various levels of bird hit damages. The subject matter of this paper is numerical modeling of a soft body geometry for realistically substituting an actual bird for carrying out simulations of bird hit on target structures. Evolution of such a numerical code to effect an actual bird behavior through impact is much desired for making use of the state of the art computational facilities in simulating bird strike events. Validity, of simulations depicting bird hits, is largely dependent on the correctness of the bird model. In an impact, a set of complex and coupled dynamic interaction exists between the target and the impactor. To simplify this problem, impactor response needs to be decoupled from that of the target. This can be done by assuming and modeling the target as noncompliant. Bird is assumed as fluidic in a impact. Generated stresses in the bird body are significant than its yield stresses. Hydrodynamic theory is most ideal for describing this problem. Impactor literally flows steadily over the target for most part of this problem. The impact starts with an initial shock and falls into a radial release shock regime. Subsequently a steady flow is established in the bird body and this phase continues till the whole length of the bird body is turned around. Initial shock pressure and steady state pressure are ideal variables for comparing and validating the bird model. Spatial discretization of the bird is done using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. This Discrete Element Model (DEM) offers significant advantages over other contemporary approaches. Thermodynamic state variable relations are established using Polynomial Equation of State (EOS). ANSYS AUTODYN is used to perform the explicit dynamic simulation of the impact event. Validation of the shock and steady

  12. Validation of kinetic modeling of progesterone release from polymeric membranes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Analia Irma Romero

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modeling in drug release systems is fundamental in development and optimization of these systems, since it allows to predict drug release rates and to elucidate the physical transport mechanisms involved. In this paper we validate a novel mathematical model that describes progesterone (Prg controlled release from poly-3-hydroxybutyric acid (PHB membranes. A statistical analysis was conducted to compare the fitting of our model with six different models and the Akaike information criterion (AIC was used to find the equation with best-fit. A simple relation between mass and drug released rate was found, which allows predicting the effect of Prg loads on the release behavior. Our proposed model was the one with minimum AIC value, and therefore it was the one that statistically fitted better the experimental data obtained for all the Prg loads tested. Furthermore, the initial release rate was calculated and therefore, the interface mass transfer coefficient estimated and the equilibrium distribution constant of Prg between the PHB and the release medium was also determined. The results lead us to conclude that our proposed model is the one which best fits the experimental data and can be successfully used to describe Prg drug release in PHB membranes.

  13. MT3DMS: Model use, calibration, and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Hill, Mary C.; Cao, G.; Ma, R.

    2012-01-01

    MT3DMS is a three-dimensional multi-species solute transport model for solving advection, dispersion, and chemical reactions of contaminants in saturated groundwater flow systems. MT3DMS interfaces directly with the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW for the flow solution and supports the hydrologic and discretization features of MODFLOW. MT3DMS contains multiple transport solution techniques in one code, which can often be important, including in model calibration. Since its first release in 1990 as MT3D for single-species mass transport modeling, MT3DMS has been widely used in research projects and practical field applications. This article provides a brief introduction to MT3DMS and presents recommendations about calibration and validation procedures for field applications of MT3DMS. The examples presented suggest the need to consider alternative processes as models are calibrated and suggest opportunities and difficulties associated with using groundwater age in transport model calibration.

  14. Non-Linear Slosh Damping Model Development and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H. Q.; West, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Propellant tank slosh dynamics are typically represented by a mechanical model of spring mass damper. This mechanical model is then included in the equation of motion of the entire vehicle for Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) analysis. For a partially-filled smooth wall propellant tank, the critical damping based on classical empirical correlation is as low as 0.05%. Due to this low value of damping, propellant slosh is potential sources of disturbance critical to the stability of launch and space vehicles. It is postulated that the commonly quoted slosh damping is valid only under the linear regime where the slosh amplitude is small. With the increase of slosh amplitude, the critical damping value should also increase. If this nonlinearity can be verified and validated, the slosh stability margin can be significantly improved, and the level of conservatism maintained in the GN&C analysis can be lessened. The purpose of this study is to explore and to quantify the dependence of slosh damping with slosh amplitude. Accurately predicting the extremely low damping value of a smooth wall tank is very challenging for any Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. One must resolve thin boundary layers near the wall and limit numerical damping to minimum. This computational study demonstrates that with proper grid resolution, CFD can indeed accurately predict the low damping physics from smooth walls under the linear regime. Comparisons of extracted damping values with experimental data for different tank sizes show very good agreements. Numerical simulations confirm that slosh damping is indeed a function of slosh amplitude. When slosh amplitude is low, the damping ratio is essentially constant, which is consistent with the empirical correlation. Once the amplitude reaches a critical value, the damping ratio becomes a linearly increasing function of the slosh amplitude. A follow-on experiment validated the developed nonlinear damping relationship. This discovery can

  15. Modeling and validation of existing VAV system components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nassif, N.; Kajl, S.; Sabourin, R. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    The optimization of supervisory control strategies and local-loop controllers can improve the performance of HVAC (heating, ventilating, air-conditioning) systems. In this study, the component model of the fan, the damper and the cooling coil were developed and validated against monitored data of an existing variable air volume (VAV) system installed at Montreal's Ecole de Technologie Superieure. The measured variables that influence energy use in individual HVAC models included: (1) outdoor and return air temperature and relative humidity, (2) supply air and water temperatures, (3) zone airflow rates, (4) supply duct, outlet fan, mixing plenum static pressures, (5) fan speed, and (6) minimum and principal damper and cooling and heating coil valve positions. The additional variables that were considered, but not measured were: (1) fan and outdoor airflow rate, (2) inlet and outlet cooling coil relative humidity, and (3) liquid flow rate through the heating or cooling coils. The paper demonstrates the challenges of the validation process when monitored data of existing VAV systems are used. 7 refs., 11 figs.

  16. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  17. Experimental validation of models for Plasma Focus devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Palomino, Luis; Gonzalez, Jose; Clausse, Alejandro

    2003-01-01

    Plasma Focus(PF) Devices are thermonuclear pulsators that produce short pulsed radiation (X-ray, charged particles and neutrons). Since Filippov and Mather, investigations have been used to study plasma properties. Nowadays the interest about PF is focused in technology applications, related to the use of these devices as pulsed neutron sources. In the numerical calculus the Inter institutional PLADEMA (PLAsmas DEnsos MAgnetizados) network is developing three models. Each one is useful in different engineering stages of the Plasma Focus design. One of the main objectives in this work is a comparative study on the influence of the different parameters involved in each models. To validate these results, several experimental measurements under different geometry and initial conditions were performed. (author)

  18. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  19. Validating agent oriented methodology (AOM) for netlogo modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    WaiShiang, Cheah; Nissom, Shane; YeeWai, Sim; Sharbini, Hamizan

    2017-10-01

    AOM (Agent Oriented Modeling) is a comprehensive and unified agent methodology for agent oriented software development. AOM methodology was proposed to aid developers with the introduction of technique, terminology, notation and guideline during agent systems development. Although AOM methodology is claimed to be capable of developing a complex real world system, its potential is yet to be realized and recognized by the mainstream software community and the adoption of AOM is still at its infancy. Among the reason is that there are not much case studies or success story of AOM. This paper presents two case studies on the adoption of AOM for individual based modelling and simulation. It demonstrate how the AOM is useful for epidemiology study and ecological study. Hence, it further validate the AOM in a qualitative manner.

  20. External Validity and Model Validity: A Conceptual Approach for Systematic Review Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raheleh Khorsan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Evidence rankings do not consider equally internal (IV, external (EV, and model validity (MV for clinical studies including complementary and alternative medicine/integrative health care (CAM/IHC research. This paper describe this model and offers an EV assessment tool (EVAT© for weighing studies according to EV and MV in addition to IV. Methods. An abbreviated systematic review methodology was employed to search, assemble, and evaluate the literature that has been published on EV/MV criteria. Standard databases were searched for keywords relating to EV, MV, and bias-scoring from inception to Jan 2013. Tools identified and concepts described were pooled to assemble a robust tool for evaluating these quality criteria. Results. This study assembled a streamlined, objective tool to incorporate for the evaluation of quality of EV/MV research that is more sensitive to CAM/IHC research. Conclusion. Improved reporting on EV can help produce and provide information that will help guide policy makers, public health researchers, and other scientists in their selection, development, and improvement in their research-tested intervention. Overall, clinical studies with high EV have the potential to provide the most useful information about “real-world” consequences of health interventions. It is hoped that this novel tool which considers IV, EV, and MV on equal footing will better guide clinical decision making.

  1. Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio

    2017-12-01

    In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe

  2. Design-validation of a hand exoskeleton using musculoskeletal modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Clint; Gosselin, Florian; Ben Mansour, Khalil; Devos, Pierre; Marin, Frederic

    2018-04-01

    Exoskeletons are progressively reaching homes and workplaces, allowing interaction with virtual environments, remote control of robots, or assisting human operators in carrying heavy loads. Their design is however still a challenge as these robots, being mechanically linked to the operators who wear them, have to meet ergonomic constraints besides usual robotic requirements in terms of workspace, speed, or efforts. They have in particular to fit the anthropometry and mobility of their users. This traditionally results in numerous prototypes which are progressively fitted to each individual person. In this paper, we propose instead to validate the design of a hand exoskeleton in a fully digital environment, without the need for a physical prototype. The purpose of this study is thus to examine whether finger kinematics are altered when using a given hand exoskeleton. Therefore, user specific musculoskeletal models were created and driven by a motion capture system to evaluate the fingers' joint kinematics when performing two industrial related tasks. The kinematic chain of the exoskeleton was added to the musculoskeletal models and its compliance with the hand movements was evaluated. Our results show that the proposed exoskeleton design does not influence fingers' joints angles, the coefficient of determination between the model with and without exoskeleton being consistently high (R 2 ¯=0.93) and the nRMSE consistently low (nRMSE¯ = 5.42°). These results are promising and this approach combining musculoskeletal and robotic modeling driven by motion capture data could be a key factor in the ergonomics validation of the design of orthotic devices and exoskeletons prior to manufacturing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio

    2018-06-01

    In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe

  4. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  5. Validation of Storm Water Management Model Storm Control Measures Modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, M. A.; Platz, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computational code heavily relied upon by industry for the simulation of wastewater and stormwater infrastructure performance. Many municipalities are relying on SWMM results to design multi-billion-dollar, multi-decade infrastructure upgrades. Since the 1970's, EPA and others have developed five major releases, the most recent ones containing storm control measures modules for green infrastructure. The main objective of this study was to quantify the accuracy with which SWMM v5.1.10 simulates the hydrologic activity of previously monitored low impact developments. Model performance was evaluated with a mathematical comparison of outflow hydrographs and total outflow volumes, using empirical data and a multi-event, multi-objective calibration method. The calibration methodology utilized PEST++ Version 3, a parameter estimation tool, which aided in the selection of unmeasured hydrologic parameters. From the validation study and sensitivity analysis, several model improvements were identified to advance SWMM LID Module performance for permeable pavements, infiltration units and green roofs, and these were performed and reported herein. Overall, it was determined that SWMM can successfully simulate low impact development controls given accurate model confirmation, parameter measurement, and model calibration.

  6. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests

  7. Validating neural-network refinements of nuclear mass models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Nuclear astrophysics centers on the role of nuclear physics in the cosmos. In particular, nuclear masses at the limits of stability are critical in the development of stellar structure and the origin of the elements. Purpose: We aim to test and validate the predictions of recently refined nuclear mass models against the newly published AME2016 compilation. Methods: The basic paradigm underlining the recently refined nuclear mass models is based on existing state-of-the-art models that are subsequently refined through the training of an artificial neural network. Bayesian inference is used to determine the parameters of the neural network so that statistical uncertainties are provided for all model predictions. Results: We observe a significant improvement in the Bayesian neural network (BNN) predictions relative to the corresponding "bare" models when compared to the nearly 50 new masses reported in the AME2016 compilation. Further, AME2016 estimates for the handful of impactful isotopes in the determination of r -process abundances are found to be in fairly good agreement with our theoretical predictions. Indeed, the BNN-improved Duflo-Zuker model predicts a root-mean-square deviation relative to experiment of σrms≃400 keV. Conclusions: Given the excellent performance of the BNN refinement in confronting the recently published AME2016 compilation, we are confident of its critical role in our quest for mass models of the highest quality. Moreover, as uncertainty quantification is at the core of the BNN approach, the improved mass models are in a unique position to identify those nuclei that will have the strongest impact in resolving some of the outstanding questions in nuclear astrophysics.

  8. Validating Lung Models Using the ASL 5000 Breathing Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Amanda; McNinch, Neil; Kaznoch, Destiny; Volsko, Teresa A

    2018-04-01

    This study sought to validate pediatric models with normal and altered pulmonary mechanics. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched for studies directly measuring pulmonary mechanics of healthy infants and children, infants with severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia and neuromuscular disease. The ASL 5000 was used to construct models using tidal volume (VT), inspiratory time (TI), respiratory rate, resistance, compliance, and esophageal pressure gleaned from literature. Data were collected for a 1-minute period and repeated three times for each model. t tests compared modeled data with data abstracted from the literature. Repeated measures analyses evaluated model performance over multiple iterations. Statistical significance was established at a P value of less than 0.05. Maximum differences of means (experimental iteration mean - clinical standard mean) for TI and VT are the following: term infant without lung disease (TI = 0.09 s, VT = 0.29 mL), severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (TI = 0.08 s, VT = 0.17 mL), child without lung disease (TI = 0.10 s, VT = 0.17 mL), and child with neuromuscular disease (TI = 0.09 s, VT = 0.57 mL). One-sample testing demonstrated statistically significant differences between clinical controls and VT and TI values produced by the ASL 5000 for each iteration and model (P < 0.01). The greatest magnitude of differences was negligible (VT < 1.6%, TI = 18%) and not clinically relevant. Inconsistencies occurred with the models constructed on the ASL 5000. It was deemed accurate for the study purposes. It is therefore essential to test models and evaluate magnitude of differences before use.

  9. Validation Analysis of the Shoal Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Hassan; J. Chapman

    2008-11-01

    Environmental restoration at the Shoal underground nuclear test is following a process prescribed by a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) between the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the State of Nevada. Characterization of the site included two stages of well drilling and testing in 1996 and 1999, and development and revision of numerical models of groundwater flow and radionuclide transport. Agreement on a contaminant boundary for the site and a corrective action plan was reached in 2006. Later that same year, three wells were installed for the purposes of model validation and site monitoring. The FFACO prescribes a five-year proof-of-concept period for demonstrating that the site groundwater model is capable of producing meaningful results with an acceptable level of uncertainty. The corrective action plan specifies a rigorous seven step validation process. The accepted groundwater model is evaluated using that process in light of the newly acquired data. The conceptual model of ground water flow for the Project Shoal Area considers groundwater flow through the fractured granite aquifer comprising the Sand Springs Range. Water enters the system by the infiltration of precipitation directly on the surface of the mountain range. Groundwater leaves the granite aquifer by flowing into alluvial deposits in the adjacent basins of Fourmile Flat and Fairview Valley. A groundwater divide is interpreted as coinciding with the western portion of the Sand Springs Range, west of the underground nuclear test, preventing flow from the test into Fourmile Flat. A very low conductivity shear zone east of the nuclear test roughly parallels the divide. The presence of these lateral boundaries, coupled with a regional discharge area to the northeast, is interpreted in the model as causing groundwater from the site to flow in a northeastward direction into Fairview Valley. Steady-state flow conditions are assumed given the absence of

  10. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty

    2017-04-01

    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

  11. ExEP yield modeling tool and validation test results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Rhonda; Turmon, Michael; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel; Lowrance, Patrick; Liu, Xiang Cate; Nunez, Paul

    2017-09-01

    EXOSIMS is an open-source simulation tool for parametric modeling of the detection yield and characterization of exoplanets. EXOSIMS has been adopted by the Exoplanet Exploration Programs Standards Definition and Evaluation Team (ExSDET) as a common mechanism for comparison of exoplanet mission concept studies. To ensure trustworthiness of the tool, we developed a validation test plan that leverages the Python-language unit-test framework, utilizes integration tests for selected module interactions, and performs end-to-end crossvalidation with other yield tools. This paper presents the test methods and results, with the physics-based tests such as photometry and integration time calculation treated in detail and the functional tests treated summarily. The test case utilized a 4m unobscured telescope with an idealized coronagraph and an exoplanet population from the IPAC radial velocity (RV) exoplanet catalog. The known RV planets were set at quadrature to allow deterministic validation of the calculation of physical parameters, such as working angle, photon counts and integration time. The observing keepout region was tested by generating plots and movies of the targets and the keepout zone over a year. Although the keepout integration test required the interpretation of a user, the test revealed problems in the L2 halo orbit and the parameterization of keepout applied to some solar system bodies, which the development team was able to address. The validation testing of EXOSIMS was performed iteratively with the developers of EXOSIMS and resulted in a more robust, stable, and trustworthy tool that the exoplanet community can use to simulate exoplanet direct-detection missions from probe class, to WFIRST, up to large mission concepts such as HabEx and LUVOIR.

  12. Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Mark W; Cohen, Samuel; Wang, Hank; Kaung, Aung; Patel, Anish; Tashjian, Vartan; Williams, Demetrius L; Martinez, Bibiana; Spiegel, Brennan M R

    2015-12-01

    To develop a model that identifies patients at high risk for missing scheduled appointments ("no-shows" and cancellations) and to project the impact of predictive overbooking in a gastrointestinal endoscopy clinic-an exemplar resource-intensive environment with a high no-show rate. We retrospectively developed an algorithm that uses electronic health record (EHR) data to identify patients who do not show up to their appointments. Next, we prospectively validated the algorithm at a Veterans Administration healthcare network clinic. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model that assigned a no-show risk score optimized by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Based on these scores, we created a calendar of projected open slots to offer to patients and compared the daily performance of predictive overbooking with fixed overbooking and typical "1 patient, 1 slot" scheduling. Data from 1392 patients identified several predictors of no-show, including previous absenteeism, comorbid disease burden, and current diagnoses of mood and substance use disorders. The model correctly classified most patients during the development (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80) and validation phases (AUC = 0.75). Prospective testing in 1197 patients found that predictive overbooking averaged 0.51 unused appointments per day versus 6.18 for typical booking (difference = -5.67; 95% CI, -6.48 to -4.87; P < .0001). Predictive overbooking could have increased service utilization from 62% to 97% of capacity, with only rare clinic overflows. Information from EHRs can accurately predict whether patients will no-show. This method can be used to overbook appointments, thereby maximizing service utilization while staying within clinic capacity.

  13. Validating clustering of molecular dynamics simulations using polymer models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillips Joshua L

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular dynamics (MD simulation is a powerful technique for sampling the meta-stable and transitional conformations of proteins and other biomolecules. Computational data clustering has emerged as a useful, automated technique for extracting conformational states from MD simulation data. Despite extensive application, relatively little work has been done to determine if the clustering algorithms are actually extracting useful information. A primary goal of this paper therefore is to provide such an understanding through a detailed analysis of data clustering applied to a series of increasingly complex biopolymer models. Results We develop a novel series of models using basic polymer theory that have intuitive, clearly-defined dynamics and exhibit the essential properties that we are seeking to identify in MD simulations of real biomolecules. We then apply spectral clustering, an algorithm particularly well-suited for clustering polymer structures, to our models and MD simulations of several intrinsically disordered proteins. Clustering results for the polymer models provide clear evidence that the meta-stable and transitional conformations are detected by the algorithm. The results for the polymer models also help guide the analysis of the disordered protein simulations by comparing and contrasting the statistical properties of the extracted clusters. Conclusions We have developed a framework for validating the performance and utility of clustering algorithms for studying molecular biopolymer simulations that utilizes several analytic and dynamic polymer models which exhibit well-behaved dynamics including: meta-stable states, transition states, helical structures, and stochastic dynamics. We show that spectral clustering is robust to anomalies introduced by structural alignment and that different structural classes of intrinsically disordered proteins can be reliably discriminated from the clustering results. To our

  14. General Potential-Current Model and Validation for Electrocoagulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubrawski, Kristian L.; Du, Codey; Mohseni, Madjid

    2014-01-01

    A model relating potential and current in continuous parallel plate iron electrocoagulation (EC) was developed for application in drinking water treatment. The general model can be applied to any EC parallel plate system relying only on geometric and tabulated input variables without the need of system-specific experimentally derived constants. For the theoretical model, the anode and cathode were vertically divided into n equipotential segments in a single pass, upflow, and adiabatic EC reactor. Potential and energy balances were simultaneously solved at each vertical segment, which included the contribution of ionic concentrations, solution temperature and conductivity, cathodic hydrogen flux, and gas/liquid ratio. We experimentally validated the numerical model with a vertical upflow EC reactor using a 24 cm height 99.99% pure iron anode divided into twelve 2 cm segments. Individual experimental currents from each segment were summed to determine total current, and compared with the theoretically derived value. Several key variables were studied to determine their impact on model accuracy: solute type, solute concentration, current density, flow rate, inter-electrode gap, and electrode surface condition. Model results were in good agreement with experimental values at cell potentials of 2-20 V (corresponding to a current density range of approximately 50-800 A/m 2 ), with mean relative deviation of 9% for low flow rate, narrow electrode gap, polished electrodes, and 150 mg/L NaCl. Highest deviation occurred with a large electrode gap, unpolished electrodes, and Na 2 SO 4 electrolyte, due to parasitic H 2 O oxidation and less than unity current efficiency. This is the first general model which can be applied to any parallel plate EC system for accurate electrochemical voltage or current prediction

  15. Validity of the Neuromuscular Recovery Scale: a measurement model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velozo, Craig; Moorhouse, Michael; Ardolino, Elizabeth; Lorenz, Doug; Suter, Sarah; Basso, D Michele; Behrman, Andrea L

    2015-08-01

    To determine how well the Neuromuscular Recovery Scale (NRS) items fit the Rasch, 1-parameter, partial-credit measurement model. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and principal components analysis (PCA) of residuals were used to determine dimensionality. The Rasch, 1-parameter, partial-credit rating scale model was used to determine rating scale structure, person/item fit, point-measure item correlations, item discrimination, and measurement precision. Seven NeuroRecovery Network clinical sites. Outpatients (N=188) with spinal cord injury. Not applicable. NRS. While the NRS met 1 of 3 CFA criteria, the PCA revealed that the Rasch measurement dimension explained 76.9% of the variance. Ten of 11 items and 91% of the patients fit the Rasch model, with 9 of 11 items showing high discrimination. Sixty-nine percent of the ratings met criteria. The items showed a logical item-difficulty order, with Stand retraining as the easiest item and Walking as the most challenging item. The NRS showed no ceiling or floor effects and separated the sample into almost 5 statistically distinct strata; individuals with an American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) D classification showed the most ability, and those with an AIS A classification showed the least ability. Items not meeting the rating scale criteria appear to be related to the low frequency counts. The NRS met many of the Rasch model criteria for construct validity. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Using of Structural Equation Modeling Techniques in Cognitive Levels Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalija Curkovic

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available When constructing knowledge tests, cognitive level is usually one of the dimensions comprising the test specifications with each item assigned to measure a particular level. Recently used taxonomies of the cognitive levels most often represent some modification of the original Bloom’s taxonomy. There are many concerns in current literature about existence of predefined cognitive levels. The aim of this article is to investigate can structural equation modeling techniques confirm existence of different cognitive levels. For the purpose of the research, a Croatian final high-school Mathematics exam was used (N = 9626. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural regression modeling were used to test three different models. Structural equation modeling techniques did not support existence of different cognitive levels in this case. There is more than one possible explanation for that finding. Some other techniques that take into account nonlinear behaviour of the items as well as qualitative techniques might be more useful for the purpose of the cognitive levels validation. Furthermore, it seems that cognitive levels were not efficient descriptors of the items and so improvements are needed in describing the cognitive skills measured by items.

  17. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  18. Validation of elastic cross section models for space radiation applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werneth, C.M., E-mail: charles.m.werneth@nasa.gov [NASA Langley Research Center (United States); Xu, X. [National Institute of Aerospace (United States); Norman, R.B. [NASA Langley Research Center (United States); Ford, W.P. [The University of Tennessee (United States); Maung, K.M. [The University of Southern Mississippi (United States)

    2017-02-01

    The space radiation field is composed of energetic particles that pose both acute and long-term risks for astronauts in low earth orbit and beyond. In order to estimate radiation risk to crew members, the fluence of particles and biological response to the radiation must be known at tissue sites. Given that the spectral fluence at the boundary of the shielding material is characterized, radiation transport algorithms may be used to find the fluence of particles inside the shield and body, and the radio-biological response is estimated from experiments and models. The fidelity of the radiation spectrum inside the shield and body depends on radiation transport algorithms and the accuracy of the nuclear cross sections. In a recent study, self-consistent nuclear models based on multiple scattering theory that include the option to study relativistic kinematics were developed for the prediction of nuclear cross sections for space radiation applications. The aim of the current work is to use uncertainty quantification to ascertain the validity of the models as compared to a nuclear reaction database and to identify components of the models that can be improved in future efforts.

  19. Reactor core modeling practice: Operational requirements, model characteristics, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbino, H.

    1997-01-01

    The physical models implemented in power plant simulators have greatly increased in performance and complexity in recent years. This process has been enabled by the ever increasing computing power available at affordable prices. This paper describes this process from several angles: First the operational requirements which are more critical from the point of view of model performance, both for normal and off-normal operating conditions; A second section discusses core model characteristics in the light of the solutions implemented by Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) in several full-scope simulators recently built and delivered for Dutch, German, and French nuclear power plants; finally we consider the model validation procedures, which are of course an integral part of model development, and which are becoming more and more severe as performance expectations increase. As a conclusion, it may be asserted that in the core modeling field, as in other areas, the general improvement in the quality of simulation codes has resulted in a fairly rapid convergence towards mainstream engineering-grade calculations. This is remarkable performance in view of the stringent real-time requirements which the simulation codes must satisfy as well as the extremely wide range of operating conditions that they are called upon to cover with good accuracy. (author)

  20. Integrated Process Modeling-A Process Validation Life Cycle Companion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahel, Thomas; Hauer, Stefan; Mueller, Eric M; Murphy, Patrick; Abad, Sandra; Vasilieva, Elena; Maurer, Daniel; Brocard, Cécile; Reinisch, Daniela; Sagmeister, Patrick; Herwig, Christoph

    2017-10-17

    During the regulatory requested process validation of pharmaceutical manufacturing processes, companies aim to identify, control, and continuously monitor process variation and its impact on critical quality attributes (CQAs) of the final product. It is difficult to directly connect the impact of single process parameters (PPs) to final product CQAs, especially in biopharmaceutical process development and production, where multiple unit operations are stacked together and interact with each other. Therefore, we want to present the application of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using an integrated process model (IPM) that enables estimation of process capability even in early stages of process validation. Once the IPM is established, its capability in risk and criticality assessment is furthermore demonstrated. IPMs can be used to enable holistic production control strategies that take interactions of process parameters of multiple unit operations into account. Moreover, IPMs can be trained with development data, refined with qualification runs, and maintained with routine manufacturing data which underlines the lifecycle concept. These applications will be shown by means of a process characterization study recently conducted at a world-leading contract manufacturing organization (CMO). The new IPM methodology therefore allows anticipation of out of specification (OOS) events, identify critical process parameters, and take risk-based decisions on counteractions that increase process robustness and decrease the likelihood of OOS events.

  1. PIV validation of blood-heart valve leaflet interaction modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminsky, R; Dumont, K; Weber, H; Schroll, M; Verdonck, P

    2007-07-01

    The aim of this study was to validate the 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results of a moving heart valve based on a fluid-structure interaction (FSI) algorithm with experimental measurements. Firstly, a pulsatile laminar flow through a monoleaflet valve model with a stiff leaflet was visualized by means of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The inflow data sets were applied to a CFD simulation including blood-leaflet interaction. The measurement section with a fixed leaflet was enclosed into a standard mock loop in series with a Harvard Apparatus Pulsatile Blood Pump, a compliance chamber and a reservoir. Standard 2D PIV measurements were made at a frequency of 60 bpm. Average velocity magnitude results of 36 phase-locked measurements were evaluated at every 10 degrees of the pump cycle. For the CFD flow simulation, a commercially available package from Fluent Inc. was used in combination with inhouse developed FSI code based on the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method. Then the CFD code was applied to the leaflet to quantify the shear stress on it. Generally, the CFD results are in agreement with the PIV evaluated data in major flow regions, thereby validating the FSI simulation of a monoleaflet valve with a flexible leaflet. The applicability of the new CFD code for quantifying the shear stress on a flexible leaflet is thus demonstrated.

  2. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    deterministic case, and the uncertainty bands did not always overlap. This suggest that there are considerable model uncertainties present, which were not considered in this study. Concerning possible constraints in the application domain of different models, the results of this exercise suggest that if only the evolution of the root zone concentration is to be predicted, all of the studied models give comparable results. However, if also the flux to the groundwater is to be predicted, then a considerably increased amount of detail is needed concerning the model and the parameterization. This applies to the hydrological as well as the transport modelling. The difference in model predictions and the magnitude of uncertainty was quite small for some of the end-points predicted, while for others it could span many orders of magnitude. Of special importance were end-points where delay in the soil was involved, e.g. release to the groundwater. In such cases the influence of radioactive decay gave rise to strongly non-linear effects. The work in the subgroup has provided many valuable insights on the effects of model simplifications, e.g. discretization in the model, averaging of the time varying input parameters and the assignment of uncertainties to parameters. The conclusions that have been drawn concerning these are primarily valid for the studied scenario. However, we believe that they to a large extent also are generally applicable. The subgroup have had many opportunities to study the pitfalls involved in model comparison. The intention was to provide a well defined scenario for the subgroup, but despite several iterations misunderstandings and ambiguities remained. The participants have been forced to scrutinize their models to try to explain differences in the predictions and most, if not all, of the participants have improved their models as a result of this

  3. A magnetospheric specification model validation study: Geosynchronous electrons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmer, R. V.; Ginet, G. P.

    2000-09-01

    The Rice University Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) is an operational space environment model of the inner and middle magnetosphere designed to specify charged particle fluxes up to 100keV. Validation test data taken between January 1996 and June 1998 consist of electron fluxes measured by a charge control system (CCS) on a defense satellite communications system (DSCS) spacecraft. The CCS includes both electrostatic analyzers to measure the particle environment and surface potential monitors to track differential charging between various materials and vehicle ground. While typical RMS error analysis methods provide a sense of the models overall abilities, they do not specifically address physical situations critical to operations, i.e., how well does the model specify when a high differential charging state is probable. In this validation study, differential charging states observed by DSCS are used to determine several threshold fluxes for the associated 20-50keV electrons and joint probability distributions are constructed to determine Hit, Miss, and False Alarm rates for the models. An MSM run covering the two and one-half year interval is performed using the minimum required input parameter set, consisting of only the magnetic activity index Kp, in order to statistically examine the model's seasonal and yearly performance. In addition, the relative merits of the input parameter, i.e., Kp, Dst, the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora at midnight, cross-polar cap potential, solar wind density and velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field values, are evaluated as drivers of shorter model runs of 100 d each. In an effort to develop operational tools that can address spacecraft charging issues, we also identify temporal features in the model output that can be directly linked to input parameter variations and model boundary conditions. All model output is interpreted using the full three-dimensional, dipole tilt-dependent algorithms currently in

  4. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  5. Numerical modeling and experimental validation of thermoplastic composites induction welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmieri, Barbara; Nele, Luigi; Galise, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    In this work, a numerical simulation and experimental test of the induction welding of continuous fibre-reinforced thermoplastic composites (CFRTPCs) was provided. The thermoplastic Polyamide 66 (PA66) with carbon fiber fabric was used. Using a dedicated software (JMag Designer), the influence of the fundamental process parameters such as temperature, current and holding time was investigated. In order to validate the results of the simulations, and therefore the numerical model used, experimental tests were carried out, and the temperature values measured during the tests were compared with the aid of an optical pyrometer, with those provided by the numerical simulation. The mechanical properties of the welded joints were evaluated by single lap shear tests.

  6. Validation of the Osteopenia Sheep Model for Orthopaedic Biomaterial Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Ming

    2009-01-01

    months. This suggests that a prolonged administration of GC is needed for a long-term observation to keep osteopenic bone.                 In conclusion, after 7 months of GC treatments with restricted diet, the microarchitectural characteristics, mechanical competence, mineralization of the bone tissues...... resemble osteoporosis in humans. This study aimed to validate glucocorticoid-induced osteopenia sheep model for orthopaedic implant and biomaterial research. We hypothesized that a 7-month GC treatment together with restricted diet but without OVX would induce osteopenia. Materials and Methods: Eighteen...... for 7 months. The sheep were housed outdoors in paddocks, and received restricted diet with low calcium and phosphorus (0.55% calcium and 0.35% phosphorus) and hay. After sacrifice, cancellous bone specimens from the 5th lumbar vertebra, bilateral distal femur, and bilateral proximal tibia, and cortical...

  7. Use of Synchronized Phasor Measurements for Model Validation in ERCOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuthalapati, Sarma; Chen, Jian; Shrestha, Prakash; Huang, Shun-Hsien; Adams, John; Obadina, Diran; Mortensen, Tim; Blevins, Bill

    2013-05-01

    This paper discusses experiences in the use of synchronized phasor measurement technology in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) interconnection, USA. Implementation of synchronized phasor measurement technology in the region is a collaborative effort involving ERCOT, ONCOR, AEP, SHARYLAND, EPG, CCET, and UT-Arlington. As several phasor measurement units (PMU) have been installed in ERCOT grid in recent years, phasor data with the resolution of 30 samples per second is being used to monitor power system status and record system events. Post-event analyses using recorded phasor data have successfully verified ERCOT dynamic stability simulation studies. Real time monitoring software "RTDMS"® enables ERCOT to analyze small signal stability conditions by monitoring the phase angles and oscillations. The recorded phasor data enables ERCOT to validate the existing dynamic models of conventional and/or wind generator.

  8. Utilizing Chamber Data for Developing and Validating Climate Change Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monje, Oscar

    2012-01-01

    Controlled environment chambers (e.g. growth chambers, SPAR chambers, or open-top chambers) are useful for measuring plant ecosystem responses to climatic variables and CO2 that affect plant water relations. However, data from chambers was found to overestimate responses of C fluxes to CO2 enrichment. Chamber data may be confounded by numerous artifacts (e.g. sidelighting, edge effects, increased temperature and VPD, etc) and this limits what can be measured accurately. Chambers can be used to measure canopy level energy balance under controlled conditions and plant transpiration responses to CO2 concentration can be elucidated. However, these measurements cannot be used directly in model development or validation. The response of stomatal conductance to CO2 will be the same as in the field, but the measured response must be recalculated in such a manner to account for differences in aerodynamic conductance, temperature and VPD between the chamber and the field.

  9. Vehicle modeling and duty cycle analysis to validate technology feasibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castonguay, S. [National Centre for Advanced Transportation, Saint-Jerome, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    The National Centre for Advanced Transportation (CNTA) is a non-profit organization with a board consisting of representatives from the transportation industry, public service and public transit organizations, research and teaching institutions, and from municipal and economic development organizations. The objectives of the CNTA are to accelerate the introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles; act as a catalyst in projects; assist in increasing Canadian technology assets; initiate and support electric vehicle conversion projects; increase Canadian business for electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and plug-in electric vehicles; and provide a cost-effective solution and aggressive payback for road/off-road vehicles. This presentation provided an overview of the objectives and services of the CNTA. It discussed various road and off-road vehicles, duty cycle and technology of electric vehicles. Specific topics related to the technology were discussed, including configuration; controls and interface; efficiency maps; models and simulation; validation; and support. figs.

  10. Validation of the dermal exposure model in ECETOC TRA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Franken, Remy; Goede, Henk; Fransman, Wouter; Schinkel, Jody

    2017-08-01

    The ECETOC TRA model (presently version 3.1) is often used to estimate worker inhalation and dermal exposure in regulatory risk assessment. The dermal model in ECETOC TRA has not yet been validated by comparison with independent measured exposure levels. This was the goal of the present study. Measured exposure levels and relevant contextual information were gathered via literature search, websites of relevant occupational health institutes and direct requests for data to industry. Exposure data were clustered in so-called exposure cases, which are sets of data from one data source that are expected to have the same values for input parameters in the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model. For each exposure case, the 75th percentile of measured values was calculated, because the model intends to estimate these values. The input values for the parameters in ECETOC TRA were assigned by an expert elicitation and consensus building process, based on descriptions of relevant contextual information.From more than 35 data sources, 106 useful exposure cases were derived, that were used for direct comparison with the model estimates. The exposure cases covered a large part of the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model. The model explained 37% of the variance in the 75th percentiles of measured values. In around 80% of the exposure cases, the model estimate was higher than the 75th percentile of measured values. In the remaining exposure cases, the model estimate may not be sufficiently conservative.The model was shown to have a clear bias towards (severe) overestimation of dermal exposure at low measured exposure values, while all cases of apparent underestimation by the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model occurred at high measured exposure values. This can be partly explained by a built-in bias in the effect of concentration of substance in product used, duration of exposure and the use of protective gloves in the model. The effect of protective gloves was calculated to be on average a

  11. Neuroinflammatory targets and treatments for epilepsy validated in experimental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, Eleonora; Bauer, Sebastian; Bozzi, Yuri; Caleo, Matteo; Dingledine, Raymond; Gorter, Jan A; Henshall, David C; Kaufer, Daniela; Koh, Sookyong; Löscher, Wolfgang; Louboutin, Jean-Pierre; Mishto, Michele; Norwood, Braxton A; Palma, Eleonora; Poulter, Michael O; Terrone, Gaetano; Vezzani, Annamaria; Kaminski, Rafal M

    2017-07-01

    A large body of evidence that has accumulated over the past decade strongly supports the role of inflammation in the pathophysiology of human epilepsy. Specific inflammatory molecules and pathways have been identified that influence various pathologic outcomes in different experimental models of epilepsy. Most importantly, the same inflammatory pathways have also been found in surgically resected brain tissue from patients with treatment-resistant epilepsy. New antiseizure therapies may be derived from these novel potential targets. An essential and crucial question is whether targeting these molecules and pathways may result in anti-ictogenesis, antiepileptogenesis, and/or disease-modification effects. Therefore, preclinical testing in models mimicking relevant aspects of epileptogenesis is needed to guide integrated experimental and clinical trial designs. We discuss the most recent preclinical proof-of-concept studies validating a number of therapeutic approaches against inflammatory mechanisms in animal models that could represent novel avenues for drug development in epilepsy. Finally, we suggest future directions to accelerate preclinical to clinical translation of these recent discoveries. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

  12. Modelling and validation of Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohiuddin, A. K. M.; Basran, N.; Khan, A. A.

    2018-01-01

    This paper is the outcome of a small scale fuel cell project. Fuel cell is an electrochemical device that converts energy from chemical reaction to electrical work. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is one of the different types of fuel cell, which is more efficient, having low operational temperature and fast start up capability results in high energy density. In this study, a mathematical model of 1.2 W PEMFC is developed and simulated using MATLAB software. This model describes the PEMFC behaviour under steady-state condition. This mathematical modeling of PEMFC determines the polarization curve, power generated, and the efficiency of the fuel cell. Simulation results were validated by comparing with experimental results obtained from the test of a single PEMFC with a 3 V motor. The performance of experimental PEMFC is little lower compared to simulated PEMFC, however both results were found in good agreement. Experiments on hydrogen flow rate also been conducted to obtain the amount of hydrogen consumed to produce electrical work on PEMFC.

  13. Tyre tread-block friction: modelling, simulation and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallaschek, Jörg; Wies, Burkard

    2013-07-01

    Pneumatic tyres are used in vehicles since the beginning of the last century. They generate braking and steering forces for bicycles, motor cycles, cars, busses, trucks, agricultural vehicles and aircraft. These forces are generated in the usually very small contact area between tyre and road and their performance characteristics are of eminent importance for safety and comfort. Much research has been addressed to optimise tyre design with respect to footprint pressure and friction. In this context, the development of virtual tyre prototypes, that is, simulation models for the tyre, has grown to a science in its own. While the modelling of the structural dynamics of the tyre has reached a very advanced level, which allows to take into account effects like the rate-independent inelasticity of filled elastomers or the transient 3D deformations of the ply-reinforced tread, shoulder and sidewalls, little is known about the friction between tread-block elements and road. This is particularly obvious in the case when snow, ice, water or a third-body layer are present in the tyre-road contact. In the present paper, we give a survey on the present state of knowledge in the modelling, simulation and experimental validation of tyre tread-block friction processes. We concentrate on experimental techniques.

  14. Validity of scale modeling for large deformations in shipping containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burian, R.J.; Black, W.E.; Lawrence, A.A.; Balmert, M.E.

    1979-01-01

    The principal overall objective of this phase of the continuing program for DOE/ECT is to evaluate the validity of applying scaling relationships to accurately assess the response of unprotected model shipping containers severe impact conditions -- specifically free fall from heights up to 140 ft onto a hard surface in several orientations considered most likely to produce severe damage to the containers. The objective was achieved by studying the following with three sizes of model casks subjected to the various impact conditions: (1) impact rebound response of the containers; (2) structural damage and deformation modes; (3) effect on the containment; (4) changes in shielding effectiveness; (5) approximate free-fall threshold height for various orientations at which excessive damage occurs; (6) the impact orientation(s) that tend to produce the most severe damage; and (7) vunerable aspects of the casks which should be examined. To meet the objective, the tests were intentionally designed to produce extreme structural damage to the cask models. In addition to the principal objective, this phase of the program had the secondary objectives of establishing a scientific data base for assessing the safety and environmental control provided by DOE nuclear shipping containers under impact conditions, and providing experimental data for verification and correlation with dynamic-structural-analysis computer codes being developed by the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory for DOE/ECT

  15. Validation of an Acoustic Impedance Prediction Model for Skewed Resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howerton, Brian M.; Parrott, Tony L.

    2009-01-01

    An impedance prediction model was validated experimentally to determine the composite impedance of a series of high-aspect ratio slot resonators incorporating channel skew and sharp bends. Such structures are useful for packaging acoustic liners into constrained spaces for turbofan noise control applications. A formulation of the Zwikker-Kosten Transmission Line (ZKTL) model, incorporating the Richards correction for rectangular channels, is used to calculate the composite normalized impedance of a series of six multi-slot resonator arrays with constant channel length. Experimentally, acoustic data was acquired in the NASA Langley Normal Incidence Tube over the frequency range of 500 to 3500 Hz at 120 and 140 dB OASPL. Normalized impedance was reduced using the Two-Microphone Method for the various combinations of channel skew and sharp 90o and 180o bends. Results show that the presence of skew and/or sharp bends does not significantly alter the impedance of a slot resonator as compared to a straight resonator of the same total channel length. ZKTL predicts the impedance of such resonators very well over the frequency range of interest. The model can be used to design arrays of slot resonators that can be packaged into complex geometries heretofore unsuitable for effective acoustic treatment.

  16. Development and validation of models for bubble coalescence and breakup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, Yiaxiang

    2013-10-08

    A generalized model for bubble coalescence and breakup has been developed, which is based on a comprehensive survey of existing theories and models. One important feature of the model is that all important mechanisms leading to bubble coalescence and breakup in a turbulent gas-liquid flow are considered. The new model is tested extensively in a 1D Test Solver and a 3D CFD code ANSYS CFX for the case of vertical gas-liquid pipe flow under adiabatic conditions, respectively. Two kinds of extensions of the standard multi-fluid model, i.e. the discrete population model and the inhomogeneous MUSIG (multiple-size group) model, are available in the two solvers, respectively. These extensions with suitable closure models such as those for coalescence and breakup are able to predict the evolution of bubble size distribution in dispersed flows and to overcome the mono-dispersed flow limitation of the standard multi-fluid model. For the validation of the model the high quality database of the TOPFLOW L12 experiments for air-water flow in a vertical pipe was employed. A wide range of test points, which cover the bubbly flow, turbulent-churn flow as well as the transition regime, is involved in the simulations. The comparison between the simulated results such as bubble size distribution, gas velocity and volume fraction and the measured ones indicates a generally good agreement for all selected test points. As the superficial gas velocity increases, bubble size distribution evolves via coalescence dominant regimes first, then breakup-dominant regimes and finally turns into a bimodal distribution. The tendency of the evolution is well reproduced by the model. However, the tendency is almost always overestimated, i.e. too much coalescence in the coalescence dominant case while too much breakup in breakup dominant ones. The reason of this problem is discussed by studying the contribution of each coalescence and breakup mechanism at different test points. The redistribution of the

  17. Development and validation of models for bubble coalescence and breakup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Yiaxiang

    2013-01-01

    A generalized model for bubble coalescence and breakup has been developed, which is based on a comprehensive survey of existing theories and models. One important feature of the model is that all important mechanisms leading to bubble coalescence and breakup in a turbulent gas-liquid flow are considered. The new model is tested extensively in a 1D Test Solver and a 3D CFD code ANSYS CFX for the case of vertical gas-liquid pipe flow under adiabatic conditions, respectively. Two kinds of extensions of the standard multi-fluid model, i.e. the discrete population model and the inhomogeneous MUSIG (multiple-size group) model, are available in the two solvers, respectively. These extensions with suitable closure models such as those for coalescence and breakup are able to predict the evolution of bubble size distribution in dispersed flows and to overcome the mono-dispersed flow limitation of the standard multi-fluid model. For the validation of the model the high quality database of the TOPFLOW L12 experiments for air-water flow in a vertical pipe was employed. A wide range of test points, which cover the bubbly flow, turbulent-churn flow as well as the transition regime, is involved in the simulations. The comparison between the simulated results such as bubble size distribution, gas velocity and volume fraction and the measured ones indicates a generally good agreement for all selected test points. As the superficial gas velocity increases, bubble size distribution evolves via coalescence dominant regimes first, then breakup-dominant regimes and finally turns into a bimodal distribution. The tendency of the evolution is well reproduced by the model. However, the tendency is almost always overestimated, i.e. too much coalescence in the coalescence dominant case while too much breakup in breakup dominant ones. The reason of this problem is discussed by studying the contribution of each coalescence and breakup mechanism at different test points. The redistribution of the

  18. NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

    2013-10-01

    [1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis

  19. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  20. Validation Hydrodynamic Models of Three Topological Models of Secondary Facultative Ponds

    OpenAIRE

    Aponte-Reyes Alxander

    2014-01-01

    A methodology was developed to analyze boundary conditions, the size of the mesh and the turbulence of a mathematical model of CFD, which could explain hydrodynamic behavior on facultative stabilization ponds, FSP, built to pilot scale: conventional pond, CP, baffled pond, BP, and baffled-mesh pond, BMP. Models dispersion studies were performed in field for validation, taking samples into and out of the FSP, the information was used to carry out CFD model simulations of the three topologies. ...

  1. Spectroscopic validation of the supersonic plasma jet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selezneva, S.E.; Sember, V.; Gravelle, D.V.; Boulos, M.I.

    2002-01-01

    Optical emission spectroscopy is applied to validate numerical simulations of supersonic plasma flow generated by induction torch with a convergent-divergent nozzle. The plasmas exhausting from the discharge tube with the pressure 0.4-1.4 atm. through two nozzle configurations (the outlet Mach number equals 1.5 and 3) into low-pressure (1.8 kPa) chamber are compared. Both modelling and experiments show that the effect of the nozzle geometry on physical properties of plasma jet is significant. The profiles of electron number density obtained from modeling and spectroscopy agree well and show the deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium. Analysis of intercoupling between different sorts of nonequilibrium processes is performed. The results reveal that the ion recombination is more essential in the nozzle with the higher outlet number than in the nozzle with the lower outlet number. It is demonstrated that in the jets the axial electron temperature is quite low (3000-8000 K). For spectroscopic data interpretation we propose a method based on the definition of two excitation temperatures. We suppose that in mildly under expanded argon jets with frozen ion recombination the electron temperature can be defined by the electronic transitions from level 5p (the energy E=14.5 eV) to level 4p (E=13.116 eV). The obtained results are useful for the optimization of plasma reactors for plasma chemistry and plasma processing applications. (author)

  2. Characterization Report on Fuels for NEAMS Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gofryk, Krzysztof [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Nearly 20% of the world’s electricity today is generated by nuclear energy from uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel. The thermal conductivity of UO2 governs the conversion of heat produced from fission events into electricity and it is an important parameter in reactor design and safety. While nuclear fuel operates at high to very high temperatures, thermal conductivity and other materials properties lack sensitivity to temperature variations and to material variations at reactor temperatures. As a result, both the uncertainties in laboratory measurements at high temperatures and the small differences in properties of different materials inevitably lead to large uncertainties in models and little predictive power. Conversely, properties measured at low to moderate temperatures have more sensitivity, less uncertainty, and have larger differences in properties for different materials. These variations need to be characterized as they will afford the highest predictive capability in modeling and offer best assurances for validation and verification at all temperatures. This is well emphasized in the temperature variation of the thermal conductivity of UO2.

  3. Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.E. Craig

    2011-12-01

    discrimination and calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

  4. Developing and validating a predictive model for stroke progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, L E; Wu, O; Gilmour, H; Barber, M; Langhorne, P

    2011-01-01

    sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

  5. Developing and Validating a Predictive Model for Stroke Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, L.E.; Wu, O.; Gilmour, H.; Barber, M.; Langhorne, P.

    2011-01-01

    calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice. PMID:22566988

  6. Benchmark validation of statistical models: Application to mediation analysis of imagery and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P; Valente, Matthew J; Wurpts, Ingrid C

    2018-03-29

    This article describes benchmark validation, an approach to validating a statistical model. According to benchmark validation, a valid model generates estimates and research conclusions consistent with a known substantive effect. Three types of benchmark validation-(a) benchmark value, (b) benchmark estimate, and (c) benchmark effect-are described and illustrated with examples. Benchmark validation methods are especially useful for statistical models with assumptions that are untestable or very difficult to test. Benchmark effect validation methods were applied to evaluate statistical mediation analysis in eight studies using the established effect that increasing mental imagery improves recall of words. Statistical mediation analysis led to conclusions about mediation that were consistent with established theory that increased imagery leads to increased word recall. Benchmark validation based on established substantive theory is discussed as a general way to investigate characteristics of statistical models and a complement to mathematical proof and statistical simulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Published diagnostic models safely excluded colorectal cancer in an independent primary care validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elias, Sjoerd G; Kok, Liselotte; Witteman, Ben J M; Goedhard, Jelle G; Romberg-Camps, Mariëlle J L; Muris, Jean W M; de Wit, Niek J; Moons, Karel G M

    OBJECTIVE: To validate published diagnostic models for their ability to safely reduce unnecessary endoscopy referrals in primary care patients suspected of significant colorectal disease. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Following a systematic literature search, we independently validated the identified

  8. Alaska North Slope Tundra Travel Model and Validation Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry R. Bader; Jacynthe Guimond

    2006-03-01

    lack of variability in snow depth cover throughout the period of field experimentation. The amount of change in disturbance indicators was greater in the tundra communities of the Foothills than in those of the Coastal Plain. However the overall level of change in both community types was less than expected. In Coastal Plain communities, ground hardness and snow slab thickness were found to play an important role in change in active layer depth and soil moisture as a result of treatment. In the Foothills communities, snow cover had the most influence on active layer depth and soil moisture as a result of treatment. Once certain minimum thresholds for ground hardness, snow slab thickness, and snow depth were attained, it appeared that little or no additive effect was realized regarding increased resistance to disturbance in the tundra communities studied. DNR used the results of this modeling project to set a standard for maximum permissible disturbance of cross-country tundra travel, with the threshold set below the widely accepted standard of Low Disturbance levels (as determined by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). DNR followed the modeling project with a validation study, which seemed to support the field trial conclusions and indicated that the standard set for maximum permissible disturbance exhibits a conservative bias in favor of environmental protection. Finally DNR established a quick and efficient tool for visual estimations of disturbance to determine when investment in field measurements is warranted. This Visual Assessment System (VAS) seemed to support the plot disturbance measurements taking during the modeling and validation phases of this project.

  9. Validation of transport models using additive flux minimization technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pankin, A. Y.; Kruger, S. E. [Tech-X Corporation, 5621 Arapahoe Ave., Boulder, Colorado 80303 (United States); Groebner, R. J. [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92121 (United States); Hakim, A. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Kritz, A. H.; Rafiq, T. [Department of Physics, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    A new additive flux minimization technique is proposed for carrying out the verification and validation (V and V) of anomalous transport models. In this approach, the plasma profiles are computed in time dependent predictive simulations in which an additional effective diffusivity is varied. The goal is to obtain an optimal match between the computed and experimental profile. This new technique has several advantages over traditional V and V methods for transport models in tokamaks and takes advantage of uncertainty quantification methods developed by the applied math community. As a demonstration of its efficiency, the technique is applied to the hypothesis that the paleoclassical density transport dominates in the plasma edge region in DIII-D tokamak discharges. A simplified version of the paleoclassical model that utilizes the Spitzer resistivity for the parallel neoclassical resistivity and neglects the trapped particle effects is tested in this paper. It is shown that a contribution to density transport, in addition to the paleoclassical density transport, is needed in order to describe the experimental profiles. It is found that more additional diffusivity is needed at the top of the H-mode pedestal, and almost no additional diffusivity is needed at the pedestal bottom. The implementation of this V and V technique uses the FACETS::Core transport solver and the DAKOTA toolkit for design optimization and uncertainty quantification. The FACETS::Core solver is used for advancing the plasma density profiles. The DAKOTA toolkit is used for the optimization of plasma profiles and the computation of the additional diffusivity that is required for the predicted density profile to match the experimental profile.

  10. Validation of transport models using additive flux minimization technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, A. Y.; Kruger, S. E.; Groebner, R. J.; Hakim, A.; Kritz, A. H.; Rafiq, T.

    2013-01-01

    A new additive flux minimization technique is proposed for carrying out the verification and validation (V and V) of anomalous transport models. In this approach, the plasma profiles are computed in time dependent predictive simulations in which an additional effective diffusivity is varied. The goal is to obtain an optimal match between the computed and experimental profile. This new technique has several advantages over traditional V and V methods for transport models in tokamaks and takes advantage of uncertainty quantification methods developed by the applied math community. As a demonstration of its efficiency, the technique is applied to the hypothesis that the paleoclassical density transport dominates in the plasma edge region in DIII-D tokamak discharges. A simplified version of the paleoclassical model that utilizes the Spitzer resistivity for the parallel neoclassical resistivity and neglects the trapped particle effects is tested in this paper. It is shown that a contribution to density transport, in addition to the paleoclassical density transport, is needed in order to describe the experimental profiles. It is found that more additional diffusivity is needed at the top of the H-mode pedestal, and almost no additional diffusivity is needed at the pedestal bottom. The implementation of this V and V technique uses the FACETS::Core transport solver and the DAKOTA toolkit for design optimization and uncertainty quantification. The FACETS::Core solver is used for advancing the plasma density profiles. The DAKOTA toolkit is used for the optimization of plasma profiles and the computation of the additional diffusivity that is required for the predicted density profile to match the experimental profile

  11. An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

  12. CFD Modeling and Experimental Validation of a Solar Still

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Tahir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth is the densest planet of the solar system with total area of 510.072 million square Km. Over 71.68% of this area is covered with water leaving a scant area of 28.32% for human to inhabit. The fresh water accounts for only 2.5% of the total volume and the rest is the brackish water. Presently, the world is facing chief problem of lack of potable water. This issue can be addressed by converting brackish water into potable through a solar distillation process and solar still is specially assigned for this purpose. Efficiency of a solar still explicitly depends on its design parameters, such as wall material, chamber depth, width and slope of the zcondensing surface. This study was aimed at investigating the solar still parameters using CFD modeling and experimental validation. The simulation data of ANSYS-FLUENT was compared with actual experimental data. A close agreement among the simulated and experimental results was seen in the presented work. It reveals that ANSYS-FLUENT is a potent tool to analyse the efficiency of the new designs of the solar distillation systems.

  13. Validation and Application of Concentrated Cesium Eluate Physical Property Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, A.S.

    2004-01-01

    This work contained two objectives. To verify the mathematical equations developed for the physical properties of concentrated cesium eluate solutions against experimental test results obtained with simulated feeds. To estimate the physical properties of the radioactive AW-101 cesium eluate at saturation using the validated models. The Hanford River Protection Project (RPP) Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is currently being built to extract radioisotopes from the vast inventory of Hanford tank wastes and immobilize them in a silicate glass matrix for eventual disposal at a geological repository. The baseline flowsheet for the pretreatment of supernatant liquid wastes includes removal of cesium using regenerative ion-exchange resins. The loaded cesium ion-exchange columns will be eluted with nitric acid nominally at 0.5 molar, and the resulting eluate solution will be concentrated in a forced-convection evaporator to reduce the storage volume and to recover the acid for reuse. The reboiler pot is initially charged with a concentrated nitric acid solution and kept under a controlled vacuum during feeding so the pot contents would boil at 50 degrees Celsius. The liquid level in the pot is maintained constant by controlling both the feed and boilup rates. The feeding will continue with no bottom removal until the solution in the pot reaches the target endpoint of 80 per cent saturation with respect to any one of the major salt species present

  14. Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 2 - model validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yaning; Xu, Fei; Li, Bingxi; Kim, Yong-Song; Zhao, Wenke; Xie, Gongnan; Fu, Zhongbin

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to validate the three-phase heat and mass transfer model developed in the first part (Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 1 - model development). Experimental results from studies and experiments were used for the validation. The results showed that the correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental water contents at different soil depths were between 0.83 and 0.92. The correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental liquid water contents at different soil temperatures were between 0.95 and 0.99. With these high accuracies, the developed model can be well used to predict the water contents at different soil depths and temperatures.

  15. Integral Reactor Containment Condensation Model and Experimental Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Qiao [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Corradini, Michael [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2016-05-02

    This NEUP funded project, NEUP 12-3630, is for experimental, numerical and analytical studies on high-pressure steam condensation phenomena in a steel containment vessel connected to a water cooling tank, carried out at Oregon State University (OrSU) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison (UW-Madison). In the three years of investigation duration, following the original proposal, the planned tasks have been completed: (1) Performed a scaling study for the full pressure test facility applicable to the reference design for the condensation heat transfer process during design basis accidents (DBAs), modified the existing test facility to route the steady-state secondary steam flow into the high pressure containment for controllable condensation tests, and extended the operations at negative gage pressure conditions (OrSU). (2) Conducted a series of DBA and quasi-steady experiments using the full pressure test facility to provide a reliable high pressure condensation database (OrSU). (3) Analyzed experimental data and evaluated condensation model for the experimental conditions, and predicted the prototypic containment performance under accidental conditions (UW-Madison). A film flow model was developed for the scaling analysis, and the results suggest that the 1/3 scaled test facility covers large portion of laminar film flow, leading to a lower average heat transfer coefficient comparing to the prototypic value. Although it is conservative in reactor safety analysis, the significant reduction of heat transfer coefficient (50%) could under estimate the prototypic condensation heat transfer rate, resulting in inaccurate prediction of the decay heat removal capability. Further investigation is thus needed to quantify the scaling distortion for safety analysis code validation. Experimental investigations were performed in the existing MASLWR test facility at OrST with minor modifications. A total of 13 containment condensation tests were conducted for pressure

  16. Validation of CFD models for hydrogen safety application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolaeva, Anna; Skibin, Alexander; Krutikov, Alexey; Golibrodo, Luka; Volkov, Vasiliy; Nechaev, Artem; Nadinskiy, Yuriy

    2015-01-01

    Most accidents involving hydrogen begin with its leakage and spreading in the air and spontaneous detonation, which is accompanied by fire or deflagration of hydrogen mixture with heat and /or shocks, which may cause harm to life and equipment. Outflow of hydrogen in a confined volume and its propagation in the volume is the worst option because of the impact of the insularity on the process of detonation. According to the safety requirements for handling hydrogen specialized systems (ventilation, sprinklers, burners etc.) are required for maintaining the hydrogen concentration less than the critical value, to eliminate the possibility of detonation and flame propagation. In this study, a simulation of helium propagation in a confined space with different methods of injection and ventilation of helium is presented, which is used as a safe replacement of hydrogen in experimental studies. Five experiments were simulated in the range from laminar to developed turbulent with different Froude numbers, which determine the regime of the helium outflow in the air. The processes of stratification and erosion of helium stratified layer were investigated. The study includes some results of OECD/NEA-PSI PANDA benchmark and some results of Gamelan project. An analysis of applicability of various turbulence models, which are used to close the system of equations of momentum transport, implemented in the commercial codes STAR CD, STAR CCM+, ANSYS CFX, was conducted for different mesh types (polyhedral and hexahedral). A comparison of computational studies results with experimental data showed a good agreement. In particular, for transition and turbulent regimes the error of the numerical results lies in the range from 5 to 15% for all turbulence models considered. This indicates applicability of the methods considered for some hydrogen safety problems. However, it should be noted that more validation research should be made to use CFD in Hydrogen safety applications with a wide

  17. Validation of an employee satisfaction model: A structural equation model approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ophillia Ledimo; Nico Martins

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate an employee satisfaction model and to determine the relationships between the different dimensions of the concept, using the structural equation modelling approach (SEM). A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was used to collect data from a random sample of (n=759) permanent employees of a parastatal organisation. Data was collected using the Employee Satisfaction Survey (ESS) to measure employee satisfaction dimensions. Following the steps of ...

  18. Initialization of the Euler model MODIS with field data from the 'EPRI plume model validation project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, G.; Eppel, D.; Lautenschlager, M.; Mueller, A.

    1985-01-01

    The program deck MODIS (''MOment DIStribution'') is designed to be used as operational tool for modelling the dispersion of a point source under general atmospheric conditions. The concentration distribution is determined by calculating its cross-wind moments on a vertical grid oriented in the main wind direction. The model contains a parametrization for horizontal and vertical coefficients based on a second order closure model. The Eulerian time scales, preliminary determined by fitting measured plume cross sections, are confirmed by comparison with data from the EPRI plume model validation project. (orig.) [de

  19. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  20. Concrete structures vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation - Concrete slabs vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xuan Dung Vu

    2013-01-01

    weak confinement pressure and a plasticity model which allows to reproduce the concrete behavior under strong confinement pressure. The identification of the model was done using the results of experimental tests. The improvement of this model, especially the plasticity part, focuses on three main points: taking into account the effect of the deviatoric stress in the calculation of the mean stress; better accounting for the effect of water using poro-mechanical law instead of mixing law, improvement of the coupling variable between the damage model and the elastoplastic model with consideration of the Lode angle. These improvements were then validated by comparing numerical results and impact tests. The improved model is capable of reproducing the behavior of concrete under different loading paths and at different levels of confinement pressure while taking into account the degree of saturation of concrete. (author) [fr

  1. Effects of Task Performance and Task Complexity on the Validity of Computational Models of Attention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, L. de; Maanen, P.P. van; Dongen, K. van

    2008-01-01

    Computational models of attention can be used as a component of decision support systems. For accurate support, a computational model of attention has to be valid and robust. The effects of task performance and task complexity on the validity of three different computational models of attention were

  2. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

  3. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  4. 3D Core Model for simulation of nuclear power plants: Simulation requirements, model features, and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbino, H.

    1999-01-01

    In 1994-1996, Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) earned out the D50 Project, which involved the design and construction of optimized replica simulators for one Dutch and three German Nuclear Power Plants. It was recognized early on that the faithful reproduction of the Siemens reactor control and protection systems would impose extremely stringent demands on the simulation models, particularly the Core physics and the RCS thermohydraulics. The quality of the models, and their thorough validation, were thus essential. The present paper describes the main features of the fully 3D Core model implemented by TT and S, and its extensive validation campaign, which was defined in extremely positive collaboration with the Customer and the Core Data suppliers. (author)

  5. Stochastic modeling of oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture: model validation with time-lapse data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noble Mark

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first objective is to validate the assumptions behind a stochastic model developed earlier by these authors to describe oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture. The second is to generate time-lapse data that may help biomathematicians to build stochastic models of cell proliferation and differentiation under other experimental scenarios. Results Using time-lapse video recording it is possible to follow the individual evolutions of different cells within each clone. This experimental technique is very laborious and cannot replace model-based quantitative inference from clonal data. However, it is unrivalled in validating the structure of a stochastic model intended to describe cell proliferation and differentiation at the clonal level. In this paper, such data are reported and analyzed for oligodendrocyte precursor cells cultured in vitro. Conclusion The results strongly support the validity of the most basic assumptions underpinning the previously proposed model of oligodendrocyte development in cell culture. However, there are some discrepancies; the most important is that the contribution of progenitor cell death to cell kinetics in this experimental system has been underestimated.

  6. Validation and selection of ODE based systems biology models: how to arrive at more reliable decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasdemir, Dicle; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K

    2015-07-08

    Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) based modeling studies in systems biology involve a hold-out validation step for model validation. In this framework a pre-determined part of the data is used as validation data and, therefore it is not used for estimating the parameters of the model. The model is assumed to be validated if the model predictions on the validation dataset show good agreement with the data. Model selection between alternative model structures can also be performed in the same setting, based on the predictive power of the model structures on the validation dataset. However, drawbacks associated with this approach are usually under-estimated. We have carried out simulations by using a recently published High Osmolarity Glycerol (HOG) pathway from S.cerevisiae to demonstrate these drawbacks. We have shown that it is very important how the data is partitioned and which part of the data is used for validation purposes. The hold-out validation strategy leads to biased conclusions, since it can lead to different validation and selection decisions when different partitioning schemes are used. Furthermore, finding sensible partitioning schemes that would lead to reliable decisions are heavily dependent on the biology and unknown model parameters which turns the problem into a paradox. This brings the need for alternative validation approaches that offer flexible partitioning of the data. For this purpose, we have introduced a stratified random cross-validation (SRCV) approach that successfully overcomes these limitations. SRCV leads to more stable decisions for both validation and selection which are not biased by underlying biological phenomena. Furthermore, it is less dependent on the specific noise realization in the data. Therefore, it proves to be a promising alternative to the standard hold-out validation strategy.

  7. Modeling Run Test Validity: A Meta-Analytic Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vickers, Ross

    2002-01-01

    .... This study utilized data from 166 samples (N = 5,757) to test the general hypothesis that differences in testing methods could account for the cross-situational variation in validity. Only runs >2 km...

  8. Modeling, implementation, and validation of arterial travel time reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Previous research funded by Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) developed a method for estimating : travel time reliability for arterials. This method was not initially implemented or validated using field data. This : project evaluated and r...

  9. Identifying and Validating a Model of Interpersonal Performance Dimensions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carpenter, Tara

    2004-01-01

    .... Two studies were then completed to validate the proposed taxonomy. In the first study empirical evidence for the taxonomy was gathered using a content analysis of critical incidents taken from a job analysis...

  10. Empirical Validation of Building Simulation Software : Modeling of Double Facades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Heiselberg, Per

    The work described in this report is the result of a collaborative effort of members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Task 34/43: Testing and validation of building energy simulation tools experts group.......The work described in this report is the result of a collaborative effort of members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Task 34/43: Testing and validation of building energy simulation tools experts group....

  11. How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.

  12. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional Outcome After Stroke Rehabilitation: The Maugeri Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrutinio, Domenico; Lanzillo, Bernardo; Guida, Pietro; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Monitillo, Vincenzo; Pusineri, Monica; Formica, Roberto; Russo, Giovanna; Guarnaschelli, Caterina; Ferretti, Chiara; Calabrese, Gianluigi

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 4.12 ( P =0.249) and 1.20 ( P =0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 8.86 ( P =0.115) and 34.50 ( P =0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P =0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P =0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  14. Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model IMS Model Suite and its Validation against Experimental Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartok, J.

    2010-01-01

    The dissertation presents IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model, which is a 'new generation' Slovak dispersion model of long-range transport, developed by MicroStep-MIS. It solves trajectory equation for a vast number of Lagrangian 'particles' and stochastic equation that simulates the effects of turbulence. Model contains simulation of radioactive decay (full decay chains of more than 300 nuclides), and dry and wet deposition. Model was integrated into IMS Model Suite, a system in which several models and modules can run and cooperate, e.g. LAM model WRF preparing fine resolution meteorological data for dispersion. The main theme of the work is validation of dispersion model against large scale international campaigns CAPTEX and ETEX, which are two of the largest tracer experiments. Validation addressed treatment of missing data, data interpolation into comparable temporal and spatial representation. The best model results were observed for ETEX I, standard results for CAPTEXes and worst results for ETEX II, known in modelling community for its meteorological conditions that can be hardly resolved by models. The IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model was identified as capable long range dispersion model for slowly- or nonreacting chemicals and radioactive matter. Influence of input data on simulation quality is discussed within the work. Additional modules were prepared according to praxis requirement: a) Recalculation of concentrations of radioactive pollutant into effective doses form inhalation, immersion in the plume and deposition. b) Dispersion of mineral dust was added and tested in desert locality, where wind and soil moisture were firstly analysed and forecast by WRF. The result was qualitatively verified in case study against satellite observations. (author)

  15. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  16. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-09-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicted on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction

  17. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicated on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction. 43 refs

  18. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicted on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction

  19. Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)

    2017-05-24

    Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).

  20. 2013 CEF RUN - PHASE 1 DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, A.

    2014-05-08

    Phase 1 of the 2013 Cold cap Evaluation Furnace (CEF) test was completed on June 3, 2013 after a 5-day round-the-clock feeding and pouring operation. The main goal of the test was to characterize the CEF off-gas produced from a nitric-formic acid flowsheet feed and confirm whether the CEF platform is capable of producing scalable off-gas data necessary for the revision of the DWPF melter off-gas flammability model; the revised model will be used to define new safety controls on the key operating parameters for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet feeds including total organic carbon (TOC). Whether the CEF off-gas data were scalable for the purpose of predicting the potential flammability of the DWPF melter exhaust was determined by comparing the predicted H{sub 2} and CO concentrations using the current DWPF melter off-gas flammability model to those measured during Phase 1; data were deemed scalable if the calculated fractional conversions of TOC-to-H{sub 2} and TOC-to-CO at varying melter vapor space temperatures were found to trend and further bound the respective measured data with some margin of safety. Being scalable thus means that for a given feed chemistry the instantaneous flow rates of H{sub 2} and CO in the DWPF melter exhaust can be estimated with some degree of conservatism by multiplying those of the respective gases from a pilot-scale melter by the feed rate ratio. This report documents the results of the Phase 1 data analysis and the necessary calculations performed to determine the scalability of the CEF off-gas data. A total of six steady state runs were made during Phase 1 under non-bubbled conditions by varying the CEF vapor space temperature from near 700 to below 300°C, as measured in a thermowell (T{sub tw}). At each steady state temperature, the off-gas composition was monitored continuously for two hours using MS, GC, and FTIR in order to track mainly H{sub 2}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and organic gases such as CH{sub 4}. The standard

  1. Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

    2004-01-01

    Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

  2. Validation of Inhibition Effect in the Cellulose Hydrolysis: a Dynamic Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Tsai, Chien-Tai; Meyer, Anne S.

    2011-01-01

    Enzymatic hydrolysis is one of the main steps in the processing of bioethanol from lignocellulosic raw materials. However, complete understanding of the underlying phenomena is still under development. Hence, this study has focused on validation of the inhibition effects in the cellulosic biomass...... for parameter estimation (calibration) and validation purposes. The model predictions using calibrated parameters have shown good agreement with the validation data sets, which provides credibility to the model structure and the parameter values....

  3. A free wake vortex lattice model for vertical axis wind turbines: Modeling, verification and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Fanzhong; Schwarze, Holger; Vorpahl, Fabian; Strobel, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1970s several research activities had been carried out on developing aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs). In order to design large VAWTs of MW scale, more accurate aerodynamic calculation is required to predict their aero-elastic behaviours. In this paper, a 3D free wake vortex lattice model for VAWTs is developed, verified and validated. Comparisons to the experimental results show that the 3D free wake vortex lattice model developed is capable of making an accurate prediction of the general performance and the instantaneous aerodynamic forces on the blades. The comparison between momentum method and the vortex lattice model shows that free wake vortex models are needed for detailed loads calculation and for calculating highly loaded rotors

  4. Predictive Simulation of Material Failure Using Peridynamics -- Advanced Constitutive Modeling, Verification and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T

  5. Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2000-01-01

    This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

  6. Validation of SPARC, a suppression pool aerosol capture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owczarski, P.C.; Winegardner, W.K.

    1985-09-01

    A study of the potential for atmospheric release in hypothetical severe core melt accidents in BWRs with suppression pools was recently completed using a prototype of the SPARC code. The process of validating SPARC using an experimental data base is the concern of this paper

  7. Social Validity of a Positive Behavior Interventions and Support Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miramontes, Nancy Y.; Marchant, Michelle; Heath, Melissa Allen; Fischer, Lane

    2011-01-01

    As more schools turn to positive behavior interventions and support (PBIS) to address students' academic and behavioral problems, there is an increased need to adequately evaluate these programs for social relevance. The present study used social validation measures to evaluate a statewide PBIS initiative. Active consumers of the program were…

  8. Software Process Validation: Quantitatively Measuring the Correspondence of a Process to a Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cook, Jonathan E; Wolf, Alexander L

    1997-01-01

    .... When process models and process executions diverge, something significant is happening. The authors have developed techniques for uncovering and measuring the discrepancies between models and executions, which they call process validation...

  9. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

  10. Mathematical Capture of Human Crowd Behavioral Data for Computational Model Building, Verification, and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    throughout the experimental runs. Reliable and validated measures of anxiety ( Spielberger , 1983), as well as custom-constructed questionnaires about...Crowd modeling and simulation technologies. Transactions on modeling and computer simulation, 20(4). Spielberger , C. D. (1983

  11. Construction and validation of detailed kinetic models for the combustion of gasoline surrogates; Construction et validation de modeles cinetiques detailles pour la combustion de melanges modeles des essences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touchard, S.

    2005-10-15

    The irreversible reduction of oil resources, the CO{sub 2} emission control and the application of increasingly strict standards of pollutants emission lead the worldwide researchers to work to reduce the pollutants formation and to improve the engine yields, especially by using homogenous charge combustion of lean mixtures. The numerical simulation of fuel blends oxidation is an essential tool to study the influence of fuel formulation and motor conditions on auto-ignition and on pollutants emissions. The automatic generation helps to obtain detailed kinetic models, especially at low temperature, where the number of reactions quickly exceeds thousand. The main purpose of this study is the generation and the validation of detailed kinetic models for the oxidation of gasoline blends using the EXGAS software. This work has implied an improvement of computation rules for thermodynamic and kinetic data, those were validated by numerical simulation using CHEMKIN II softwares. A large part of this work has concerned the understanding of the low temperature oxidation chemistry of the C5 and larger alkenes. Low and high temperature mechanisms were proposed and validated for 1 pentene, 1-hexene, the binary mixtures containing 1 hexene/iso octane, 1 hexene/toluene, iso octane/toluene and the ternary mixture of 1 hexene/toluene/iso octane. Simulations were also done for propene, 1-butene and iso-octane with former models including the modifications proposed in this PhD work. If the generated models allowed us to simulate with a good agreement the auto-ignition delays of the studied molecules and blends, some uncertainties still remains for some reaction paths leading to the formation of cyclic products in the case of alkenes oxidation at low temperature. It would be also interesting to carry on this work for combustion models of gasoline blends at low temperature. (author)

  12. An integrated approach for the validation of energy and environmental system analysis models : used in the validation of the Flexigas Excel BioGas model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pierie, Frank; van Someren, Christian; Liu, Wen; Bekkering, Jan; Hengeveld, Evert Jan; Holstein, J.; Benders, René M.J.; Laugs, Gideon A.H.; van Gemert, Wim; Moll, Henri C.

    2016-01-01

    A review has been completed for a verification and validation (V&V) of the (Excel) BioGas simulator or EBS model. The EBS model calculates the environmental impact of biogas production pathways using Material and Energy Flow Analysis, time dependent dynamics, geographic information, and Life Cycle

  13. NRPB models for calculating the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. Verification and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attwood, C.; Barraclough, I.; Brown, J.

    1998-06-01

    There is a wide range of models available at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. Such models form an essential part of assessments of the radiological impact of releases of radionuclides into the environment. These models cover: the atmosphere; the aquatic environment; the geosphere; the terrestrial environment including foodchains. It is important that the models used for radiological impact assessments are robust, reliable and suitable for the assessment being undertaken. During model development it is, therefore, important that the model is both verified and validated. Verification of a model involves ensuring that it has been implemented correctly, while validation consists of demonstrating that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. The extent to which a model can be verified depends on its complexity and whether similar models exist. For relatively simple models verification is straightforward, but for more complex models verification has to form part of the development, coding and testing of the model within quality assurance procedures. Validation of models should ideally consist of comparisons between the results of the models and experimental or environmental measurement data that were not used to develop the model. This is more straightforward for some models than for others depending on the quantity and type of data available. Validation becomes increasingly difficult for models which are intended to predict environmental transfer at long times or at great distances. It is, therefore, necessary to adopt qualitative validation techniques to ensure that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. This report summarises the models used at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment as part of a radiological impact assessment. It outlines the work carried out to verify and validate the models. The majority of these models are not currently available

  14. Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation: Report 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    simulations of these explosive events and their effects . These codes are continuously improving, but still require validation against experimental data to...contents of this report are not to be used for advertising , publication, or promotional purposes. Citation of trade names does not constitute an...12 Figure 18. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on measured peak pressure. ............................ 14 Figure 19. Ninety-five percent

  15. Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation Report 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    the effect of the contact surface on the measurement . For gauge locations where a clearly defined initial peak is not present, Figure 24 for example...these explosive events and their effects . These codes are continuously improving, but still require validation against experimental data to...DISCLAIMER: The contents of this report are not to be used for advertising , publication, or promotional purposes. Citation of trade names does not

  16. Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

    2017-02-01

    Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

  17. Validation of the hdm models forcrack initiation and development, rutting and roughness of the pavement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjenović Slobodan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide practice recommends validation of the HDM models with some other software that can be used for comparison of the forecasting results. The program package MATLAB is used in this case, as it enables for modelling of all the HDM models. A statistic validation of the results of the forecasts concerning the condition of the pavements in HDM with the on-field measuring results was also performed. This paper shall present the results of the validation of the coefficients of calibration of the deterioration models in HDM 4 on the Macedonian highways.

  18. Object-oriented simulation model of a parabolic trough solar collector: Static and dynamic validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana

    2017-06-01

    A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).

  19. Experimental Testing Procedures and Dynamic Model Validation for Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Storage System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baccino, Francesco; Marinelli, Mattia; Nørgård, Per Bromand

    2013-01-01

    The paper aims at characterizing the electrochemical and thermal parameters of a 15 kW/320 kWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) installed in the SYSLAB test facility of the DTU Risø Campus and experimentally validating the proposed dynamic model realized in Matlab-Simulink. The adopted testing...... efficiency of the battery system. The test procedure has general validity and could also be used for other storage technologies. The storage model proposed and described is suitable for electrical studies and can represent a general model in terms of validity. Finally, the model simulation outputs...

  20. Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

    2014-03-29

    We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

  1. Some guidance on preparing validation plans for the DART Full System Models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, Genetha Anne; Hough, Patricia Diane; Hills, Richard Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-03-01

    Planning is an important part of computational model verification and validation (V&V) and the requisite planning document is vital for effectively executing the plan. The document provides a means of communicating intent to the typically large group of people, from program management to analysts to test engineers, who must work together to complete the validation activities. This report provides guidelines for writing a validation plan. It describes the components of such a plan and includes important references and resources. While the initial target audience is the DART Full System Model teams in the nuclear weapons program, the guidelines are generally applicable to other modeling efforts. Our goal in writing this document is to provide a framework for consistency in validation plans across weapon systems, different types of models, and different scenarios. Specific details contained in any given validation plan will vary according to application requirements and available resources.

  2. Validation by simulation of a clinical trial model using the standardized mean and variance criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Ismail; Rovira, Joan; Casanovas, Josep

    2006-12-01

    To develop and validate a model of a clinical trial that evaluates the changes in cholesterol level as a surrogate marker for lipodystrophy in HIV subjects under alternative antiretroviral regimes, i.e., treatment with Protease Inhibitors vs. a combination of nevirapine and other antiretroviral drugs. Five simulation models were developed based on different assumptions, on treatment variability and pattern of cholesterol reduction over time. The last recorded cholesterol level, the difference from the baseline, the average difference from the baseline and level evolution, are the considered endpoints. Specific validation criteria based on a 10% minus or plus standardized distance in means and variances were used to compare the real and the simulated data. The validity criterion was met by all models for considered endpoints. However, only two models met the validity criterion when all endpoints were considered. The model based on the assumption that within-subjects variability of cholesterol levels changes over time is the one that minimizes the validity criterion, standardized distance equal to or less than 1% minus or plus. Simulation is a useful technique for calibration, estimation, and evaluation of models, which allows us to relax the often overly restrictive assumptions regarding parameters required by analytical approaches. The validity criterion can also be used to select the preferred model for design optimization, until additional data are obtained allowing an external validation of the model.

  3. Development and demonstration of a validation methodology for vehicle lateral dynamics simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutluay, Emir

    2013-02-01

    In this thesis a validation methodology to be used in the assessment of the vehicle dynamics simulation models is presented. Simulation of vehicle dynamics is used to estimate the dynamic responses of existing or proposed vehicles and has a wide array of applications in the development of vehicle technologies. Although simulation environments, measurement tools and mathematical theories on vehicle dynamics are well established, the methodical link between the experimental test data and validity analysis of the simulation model is still lacking. The developed validation paradigm has a top-down approach to the problem. It is ascertained that vehicle dynamics simulation models can only be validated using test maneuvers although they are aimed for real world maneuvers. Test maneuvers are determined according to the requirements of the real event at the start of the model development project and data handling techniques, validation metrics and criteria are declared for each of the selected maneuvers. If the simulation results satisfy these criteria, then the simulation is deemed ''not invalid''. If the simulation model fails to meet the criteria, the model is deemed invalid, and model iteration should be performed. The results are analyzed to determine if the results indicate a modeling error or a modeling inadequacy; and if a conditional validity in terms of system variables can be defined. Three test cases are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. The developed methodology successfully identified the shortcomings of the tested simulation model, and defined the limits of application. The tested simulation model is found to be acceptable but valid only in a certain dynamical range. Several insights for the deficiencies of the model are reported in the analysis but the iteration step of the methodology is not demonstrated. Utilizing the proposed methodology will help to achieve more time and cost efficient simulation projects with

  4. Refinement, Validation and Benchmarking of a Model for E-Government Service Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magoutas, Babis; Mentzas, Gregoris

    This paper presents the refinement and validation of a model for Quality of e-Government Services (QeGS). We built upon our previous work where a conceptualized model was identified and put focus on the confirmatory phase of the model development process, in order to come up with a valid and reliable QeGS model. The validated model, which was benchmarked with very positive results with similar models found in the literature, can be used for measuring the QeGS in a reliable and valid manner. This will form the basis for a continuous quality improvement process, unleashing the full potential of e-government services for both citizens and public administrations.

  5. Gap Conductance model Validation in the TASS/SMR-S code using MARS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang Jun; Yang, Soo Hyung; Chung, Young Jong; Lee, Won Jae

    2010-01-01

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has been developing the TASS/SMR-S (Transient and Setpoint Simulation/Small and Medium Reactor) code, which is a thermal hydraulic code for the safety analysis of the advanced integral reactor. An appropriate work to validate the applicability of the thermal hydraulic models within the code should be demanded. Among the models, the gap conductance model which is describes the thermal gap conductivity between fuel and cladding was validated through the comparison with MARS code. The validation of the gap conductance model was performed by evaluating the variation of the gap temperature and gap width as the changed with the power fraction. In this paper, a brief description of the gap conductance model in the TASS/SMR-S code is presented. In addition, calculated results to validate the gap conductance model are demonstrated by comparing with the results of the MARS code with the test case

  6. SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.

  7. Verification and validation of an actuator disc model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Troldborg, Niels

    2014-01-01

    reduce the computational cost of large wind farm wake simulations. The special case of the actuator disc is successfully validated with an analytical solution for heavily loaded turbines and with a full-rotor computation in computational fluid dynamics. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... take any kind of shape discretization, determine the intersectional elements with the computational grid and use the size of these elements to redistribute proportionally the forces. This method can potentially reduce the need for mesh refinement in the region surrounding the rotor and, therefore, also...

  8. The Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor : FY08 testing for functionality, model validation, and technology readiness.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walraven, Jeremy Allen; Blecke, Jill; Baker, Michael Sean; Clemens, Rebecca C.; Mitchell, John Anthony; Brake, Matthew Robert; Epp, David S.; Wittwer, Jonathan W.

    2008-10-01

    This report summarizes the functional, model validation, and technology readiness testing of the Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor in FY08. Functional testing of a large number of revision 4 parts showed robust and consistent performance. Model validation testing helped tune the models to match data well and identified several areas for future investigation related to high frequency sensitivity and thermal effects. Finally, technology readiness testing demonstrated the integrated elements of the sensor under realistic environments.

  9. Validating a DEB model for a blue mussel.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.; Witbaard, R.; Philippart, C.J.M; Hippler, D.; Parker, R.

    2012-01-01

    A model for bivalve growth was developed and the results were tested against field observations. The model is based on the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory and includes an extension of the standard DEB model to cope with changing food quantity and quality. At 4 different locations in the North Sea

  10. Validation of crop weather models for crop assessment arid yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IRSIS and CRPSM models were used in this study to see how closely they could predict grain yields for selected stations in Tanzania. Input for the models comprised of weather, crop and soil data collected from five selected stations. Simulation results show that IRSIS model tends to over predict grain yields of maize, ...

  11. Validity of covariance models for the analysis of geographical variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Schilling, Rene L.; Porcu, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    1. Due to the availability of large molecular data-sets, covariance models are increasingly used to describe the structure of genetic variation as an alternative to more heavily parametrised biological models. 2. We focus here on a class of parametric covariance models that received sustained att...

  12. Validation of buoyancy driven spectral tensor model using HATS data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chougule, A.; Mann, Jakob; Kelly, Mark C.

    2016-01-01

    We present a homogeneous spectral tensor model for wind velocity and temperature fluctuations, driven by mean vertical shear and mean temperature gradient. Results from the model, including one-dimensional velocity and temperature spectra and the associated co-spectra, are shown in this paper....... The model also reproduces two-point statistics, such as coherence and phases, via cross-spectra between two points separated in space. Model results are compared with observations from the Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (HATS) field program (Horst et al. 2004). The spectral velocity tensor in the model...

  13. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))

    2008-01-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Forsmark area, an encompassing measurement program entailing six stations has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR) model of the Forsmark study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this scrutiny it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain, since this corresponds to the most efficient mode of water exchange. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that several periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Lack of thorough absolute calibration of the salinity meters also necessitates dismissal of measurement data. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the validation can be summarized in five points: (i) The surface-most salinity of the CR-model drifts downward a little less than one practical salinity unit (psu) per year, requiring that the ensuing correlation analysis be subdivided into periods of a

  14. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg

    2008-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Forsmark area, an encompassing measurement program entailing six stations has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR) model of the Forsmark study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this scrutiny it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain, since this corresponds to the most efficient mode of water exchange. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that several periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Lack of thorough absolute calibration of the salinity meters also necessitates dismissal of measurement data. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the validation can be summarized in five points: (i) The surface-most salinity of the CR-model drifts downward a little less than one practical salinity unit (psu) per year, requiring that the ensuing correlation analysis be subdivided into periods of a

  15. Validation of the measurement model concept for error structure identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pavan K.; Orazem, Mark E.; Crisalle, Oscar D.

    2004-01-01

    The development of different forms of measurement models for impedance has allowed examination of key assumptions on which the use of such models to assess error structure are based. The stochastic error structures obtained using the transfer-function and Voigt measurement models were identical, even when non-stationary phenomena caused some of the data to be inconsistent with the Kramers-Kronig relations. The suitability of the measurement model for assessment of consistency with the Kramers-Kronig relations, however, was found to be more sensitive to the confidence interval for the parameter estimates than to the number of parameters in the model. A tighter confidence interval was obtained for Voigt measurement model, which made the Voigt measurement model a more sensitive tool for identification of inconsistencies with the Kramers-Kronig relations

  16. Measuring Students' Motivation: Validity Evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brett D.; Skaggs, Gary

    2016-01-01

    This study provides validity evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory (MUSIC Inventory; Jones, 2012), which measures college students' beliefs related to the five components of the MUSIC Model of Motivation (MUSIC model; Jones, 2009). The MUSIC model is a conceptual framework for five categories of teaching strategies (i.e.,…

  17. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg

    2008-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the

  18. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the

  19. A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-01-01

    The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of

  20. Summarized presentation of the numerical model used for the pressurizer of a light water nuclear reactor. Description and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siarry, P.

    1981-12-01

    The pressurizer model is first described together with its coupling to the nuclear unit. The different stages involved in the validation are then presented: validation of overall qualitative behavior; validation of the open loop pressurizer model; validation of the various units for controlling pressures and levels; simulation of two large transients (Bugey plant) [fr

  1. Evaluation factors for verification and validation of low-level waste disposal site models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moran, M.S.; Mezga, L.J.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to identify general evaluation factors to be used to verify and validate LLW disposal site performance models in order to assess their site-specific applicability and to determine their accuracy and sensitivity. It is intended that the information contained in this paper be employed by model users involved with LLW site performance model verification and validation. It should not be construed as providing protocols, but rather as providing a framework for the preparation of specific protocols or procedures. A brief description of each evaluation factor is provided. The factors have been categorized according to recommended use during either the model verification or the model validation process. The general responsibilities of the developer and user are provided. In many cases it is difficult to separate the responsibilities of the developer and user, but the user is ultimately accountable for both verification and validation processes. 4 refs

  2. Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2012-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

  3. Evaluating the Social Validity of the Early Start Denver Model: A Convergent Mixed Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogilvie, Emily; McCrudden, Matthew T.

    2017-01-01

    An intervention has social validity to the extent that it is socially acceptable to participants and stakeholders. This pilot convergent mixed methods study evaluated parents' perceptions of the social validity of the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), a naturalistic behavioral intervention for children with autism. It focused on whether the parents…

  4. Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

  5. Internal and External Validation of a multivariable Model to Define Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia After Esophagectomy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijs, Teus J; Seesing, Maarten F J; van Rossum, Peter S N; Koëter, Marijn; van der Sluis, Pieter C; Luyer, Misha D P; Ruurda, Jelle P; Nieuwenhuijzen, Grard A P; van Hillegersberg, Richard

    BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is an important complication following esophagectomy; however, a wide range of pneumonia incidence is reported. The lack of one generally accepted definition prevents valid inter-study comparisons. We aimed to simplify and validate an existing scoring model to define pneumonia

  6. Understanding Student Teachers' Behavioural Intention to Use Technology: Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) Validation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Kung-Teck; Osman, Rosma bt; Goh, Pauline Swee Choo; Rahmat, Mohd Khairezan

    2013-01-01

    This study sets out to validate and test the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in the context of Malaysian student teachers' integration of their technology in teaching and learning. To establish factorial validity, data collected from 302 respondents were tested against the TAM using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation…

  7. Experimental validation of a Bayesian model of visual acuity.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dalimier, Eugénie

    2009-01-01

    Based on standard procedures used in optometry clinics, we compare measurements of visual acuity for 10 subjects (11 eyes tested) in the presence of natural ocular aberrations and different degrees of induced defocus, with the predictions given by a Bayesian model customized with aberrometric data of the eye. The absolute predictions of the model, without any adjustment, show good agreement with the experimental data, in terms of correlation and absolute error. The efficiency of the model is discussed in comparison with image quality metrics and other customized visual process models. An analysis of the importance and customization of each stage of the model is also given; it stresses the potential high predictive power from precise modeling of ocular and neural transfer functions.

  8. A proposed strategy for the validation of ground-water flow and solute transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, P.A.; Goodrich, M.T.

    1991-01-01

    Ground-water flow and transport models can be thought of as a combination of conceptual and mathematical models and the data that characterize a given system. The judgment of the validity or invalidity of a model depends both on the adequacy of the data and the model structure (i.e., the conceptual and mathematical model). This report proposes a validation strategy for testing both components independently. The strategy is based on the philosophy that a model cannot be proven valid, only invalid or not invalid. In addition, the authors believe that a model should not be judged in absence of its intended purpose. Hence, a flow and transport model may be invalid for one purpose but not invalid for another. 9 refs

  9. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W L [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1996-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  10. Plasma equilibrium response modelling and validation on JT-60U

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lister, J.B.; Sharma, A.; Limebeer, D.J.N.; Wainwright, J.P.; Nakamura, Y.; Yoshino, R.

    2002-01-01

    A systematic procedure to identify the plasma equilibrium response to the poloidal field coil voltages has been applied to the JT-60U tokamak. The required response was predicted with a high accuracy by a state-space model derived from first principles. The ab initio derivation of linearized plasma equilibrium response models is re-examined using an approach standard in analytical mechanics. A symmetric formulation is naturally obtained, removing a previous weakness in such models. RZIP, a rigid current distribution model, is re-derived using this approach and is compared with the new experimental plasma equilibrium response data obtained from Ohmic and neutral beam injection discharges in the JT-60U tokamak. In order to remove any bias from the comparison between modelled and measured plasma responses, the electromagnetic response model without plasma was first carefully tuned against experimental data, using a parametric approach, for which different cost functions for quantifying model agreement were explored. This approach additionally provides new indications of the accuracy to which various plasma parameters are known, and to the ordering of physical effects. Having taken these precautions when tuning the plasmaless model, an empirical estimate of the plasma self-inductance, the plasma resistance and its radial derivative could be established and compared with initial assumptions. Off-line tuning of the JT-60U controller is presented as an example of the improvements which might be obtained by using such a model of the plasma equilibrium response. (author)

  11. A new stationary droplet evaporation model and its validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang WANG

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The liquid droplet evaporation character is important for not only combustion chamber design process but also high-accuracy spray combustion simulation. In this paper, the suspended droplets’ evaporation character was measured in a quiescent high-temperature environment by micro high-speed camera system. The gasoline and kerosene experimental results are consistent with the reference data. Methanol, common kerosene and aviation kerosene droplet evaporation characteristics, as well as their evaporation rate changing with temperature, were obtained. The evaporation rate experimental data were compared with the prediction result of Ranz-Marshall boiling temperature model (RMB, Ranz-Marshall low-temperature model (RML, drift flux model (DFM, mass analogy model (MAM, and stagnant film model (SFM. The disparity between the experimental data and the model prediction results was mainly caused by the neglect of the natural convection effect, which was never introduced into the droplet evaporation concept. A new droplet evaporation model with consideration of natural convection buoyancy force effect was proposed in this paper. Under the experimental conditions in this paper, the calculation results of the new droplet evaporation model were agreed with the experimental data for kerosene, methanol and other fuels, with less than 20% relative deviations. The relative deviations between the new evaporation model predictions for kerosene and the experimental data from the references were within 10%.

  12. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  13. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

  14. Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

    2003-10-01

    The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

  15. EVEGAS Project (European validation exercise of GAS migration model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manai, T. [Geostock S.A., Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    1995-03-01

    The EVEGAS project aims at the verification and validation of numerical codes suitable for simulating gas flow phenomenon in low permeability porous media. Physical phenomena involved in gas generation and gas flow are numerous, often complex, and may not be very well described. The existing numerical codes cannot represent all the occurring possible phenomena, but allow a good trade-off betwen simplicity and representativity of such phenomena. Two phase flow (Gas and Water) appear to be the most consequential phenomena in gas migration and pressure sizing. The project is organised in three major steps: (1) a simple problem with analytical solutions. (2) A few problems based on laboratory or in-situ experiments. (3) A 3-D repository scenarios involving the following aspects: a repository design; a source of gas; rock characteristics; and fluid characteristics.

  16. Experimental Validation of the LHC Helium Relief System Flow Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Fydrych, J; Riddone, G

    2006-01-01

    In case of simultaneous resistive transitions in a whole sector of magnets in the Large Hadron Collider, the helium would be vented from the cold masses to a dedicated recovery system. During the discharge the cold helium will eventually enter a pipe at room temperature. During the first period of the flow the helium will be heated intensely due to the pipe heat capacity. To study the changes of the helium thermodynamic and flow parameters we have simulated numerically the most critical flow cases. To verify and validate numerical results, a dedicated laboratory test rig representing the helium relief system has been designed and commissioned. Both numerical and experimental results allow us to determine the distributions of the helium parameters along the pipes as well as mechanical strains and stresses.

  17. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  18. Dynamic modeling and validation of a lignocellulosic enzymatic hydrolysis process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prunescu, Remus Mihail; Sin, Gürkan

    2013-01-01

    The enzymatic hydrolysis process is one of the key steps in second generation biofuel production. After being thermally pretreated, the lignocellulosic material is liquefied by enzymes prior to fermentation. The scope of this paper is to evaluate a dynamic model of the hydrolysis process...... on a demonstration scale reactor. The following novel features are included: the application of the Convection–Diffusion–Reaction equation to a hydrolysis reactor to assess transport and mixing effects; the extension of a competitive kinetic model with enzymatic pH dependency and hemicellulose hydrolysis......; a comprehensive pH model; and viscosity estimations during the course of reaction. The model is evaluated against real data extracted from a demonstration scale biorefinery throughout several days of operation. All measurements are within predictions uncertainty and, therefore, the model constitutes a valuable...

  19. Modeling Enterprise Authorization: A Unified Metamodel and Initial Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matus Korman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Authorization and its enforcement, access control, have stood at the beginning of the art and science of information security, and remain being crucial pillar of security in the information technology (IT and enterprises operations. Dozens of different models of access control have been proposed. Although Enterprise Architecture as the discipline strives to support the management of IT, support for modeling access policies in enterprises is often lacking, both in terms of supporting the variety of individual models of access control nowadays used, and in terms of providing a unified ontology capable of flexibly expressing access policies for all or the most of the models. This study summarizes a number of existing models of access control, proposes a unified metamodel mapped to ArchiMate, and illustrates its use on a selection of example scenarios and two business cases.

  20. Root zone water quality model (RZWQM2): Model use, calibration and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; Nolan, B.T.; Malone, Robert; Trout, Thomas; Qi, Z.

    2012-01-01

    The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) has been used widely for simulating agricultural management effects on crop production and soil and water quality. Although it is a one-dimensional model, it has many desirable features for the modeling community. This article outlines the principles of calibrating the model component by component with one or more datasets and validating the model with independent datasets. Users should consult the RZWQM2 user manual distributed along with the model and a more detailed protocol on how to calibrate RZWQM2 provided in a book chapter. Two case studies (or examples) are included in this article. One is from an irrigated maize study in Colorado to illustrate the use of field and laboratory measured soil hydraulic properties on simulated soil water and crop production. It also demonstrates the interaction between soil and plant parameters in simulated plant responses to water stresses. The other is from a maize-soybean rotation study in Iowa to show a manual calibration of the model for crop yield, soil water, and N leaching in tile-drained soils. Although the commonly used trial-and-error calibration method works well for experienced users, as shown in the second example, an automated calibration procedure is more objective, as shown in the first example. Furthermore, the incorporation of the Parameter Estimation Software (PEST) into RZWQM2 made the calibration of the model more efficient than a grid (ordered) search of model parameters. In addition, PEST provides sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that should help users in selecting the right parameters to calibrate.

  1. Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D; Mukhi, Shamir N

    2011-01-01

    This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level.

  2. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions. Part A: Gas cell experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Becher, Valentin; Clausen, Sønnik; Fateev, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential wide band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed a good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3%. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6%. The new line......-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was recommended as a reference model for the validation of simplified CFD models....

  3. ANIMAL MODELS OF POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS DISORDER: FACE VALIDITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SONAL eGOSWAMI

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD is a debilitating condition that develops in a proportion of individuals following a traumatic event. Despite recent advances, ethical limitations associated with human research impede progress in understanding PTSD. Fortunately, much effort has focused on developing animal models to help study the pathophysiology of PTSD. Here, we provide an overview of animal PTSD models where a variety of stressors (physical, psychosocial, or psychogenic are used to examine the long-term effects of severe trauma. We emphasize models involving predator threat because they reproduce human individual differences in susceptibility to, and in the long-term consequences of, psychological trauma.

  4. Validation of dispersion model of RTARC-DSS based on ''KIT'' field experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this study is to present the performance of the Gaussian dispersion model RTARC-DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) at the 'Kit' field experiments. The Model Validation Kit is a collection of three experimental data sets from Kincaid, Copenhagen, Lillestrom and supplementary Indianopolis experimental campaigns accompanied by software for model evaluation. The validation of the model has been performed on the basis of the maximum arc-wise concentrations using the Bootstrap resampling procedure the variation of the model residuals. Validation was performed for the short-range distances (about 1 - 10 km, maximum for Kincaid data set - 50 km from source). Model evaluation procedure and amount of relative over- or under-prediction are discussed and compared with the model. (author)

  5. A Framework for Validating Traffic Simulation Models at the Vehicle Trajectory Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Based on current practices, traffic simulation models are calibrated and validated using macroscopic measures such as 15-minute averages of traffic counts or average point-to-point travel times. For an emerging number of applications, including conne...

  6. The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Borri, Dino

    2014-01-01

    Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws. - Highlights: • Validation of evacuation models is investigated. • Quantitative evaluation of behavioural uncertainty is performed. • A validation procedure is presented through an evacuation case study

  7. Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two loudspeakers, one for the target sound source and the other for the interfering sound source. Recently, the model was successfully validated in a complex personal sound-zone system with speech-on-music stimuli. Second round of validations were...... conducted by physically altering the sound-zone system and running a set of new listening experiments utilizing two sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. Preliminary results show...

  8. Turbulent Scalar Transport Model Validation for High Speed Propulsive Flows, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This effort entails the validation of a RANS turbulent scalar transport model (SFM) for high speed propulsive flows, using new experimental data sets and...

  9. Precision Glass Molding: Validation of an FE Model for Thermo-Mechanical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard

    2014-01-01

    glass molding process including heating, pressing, and cooling stages. Temperature- dependent viscoelastic and structural relaxation behavior of the glass material are implemented through a FORTRAN material subroutine (UMAT) into the commercial FEM program ABAQUS, and the FE model is validated...

  10. Modelling, simulation and validation of the industrial robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandrov Slobodan Č.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a DH model of industrial robot, with anthropomorphic configuration and five degrees of freedom - Mitsubishi RV2AJ, is developed. The model is verified on the example robot Mitsubishi RV2AJ. In paper detailed represented the complete mathematical model of the robot and the parameters of the programming. On the basis of this model, simulation of robot motion from point to point is performed, as well as the continuous movement of the pre-defined path. Also, programming of industrial robots identical to simulation programs is made, and comparative analysis of real and simulated experiment is shown. In the final section, a detailed analysis of robot motion is described.

  11. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-01-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent...

  12. Validation of a Solid Rocket Motor Internal Environment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Heath T.

    2017-01-01

    In a prior effort, a thermal/fluid model of the interior of Penn State University's laboratory-scale Insulation Test Motor (ITM) was constructed to predict both the convective and radiative heat transfer to the interior walls of the ITM with a minimum of empiricism. These predictions were then compared to values of total and radiative heat flux measured in a previous series of ITM test firings to assess the capabilities and shortcomings of the chosen modeling approach. Though the calculated fluxes reasonably agreed with those measured during testing, this exercise revealed means of improving the fidelity of the model to, in the case of the thermal radiation, enable direct comparison of the measured and calculated fluxes and, for the total heat flux, compute a value indicative of the average measured condition. By replacing the P1-Approximation with the discrete ordinates (DO) model for the solution of the gray radiative transfer equation, the radiation intensity field in the optically thin region near the radiometer is accurately estimated, allowing the thermal radiation flux to be calculated on the heat-flux sensor itself, which was then compared directly to the measured values. Though the fully coupling the wall thermal response with the flow model was not attempted due to the excessive computational time required, a separate wall thermal response model was used to better estimate the average temperature of the graphite surfaces upstream of the heat flux gauges and improve the accuracy of both the total and radiative heat flux computations. The success of this modeling approach increases confidence in the ability of state-of-the-art thermal and fluid modeling to accurately predict SRM internal environments, offers corrections to older methods, and supplies a tool for further studies of the dynamics of SRM interiors.

  13. Material model validation for laser shock peening process simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amarchinta, H K; Grandhi, R V; Langer, K; Stargel, D S

    2009-01-01

    Advanced mechanical surface enhancement techniques have been used successfully to increase the fatigue life of metallic components. These techniques impart deep compressive residual stresses into the component to counter potentially damage-inducing tensile stresses generated under service loading. Laser shock peening (LSP) is an advanced mechanical surface enhancement technique used predominantly in the aircraft industry. To reduce costs and make the technique available on a large-scale basis for industrial applications, simulation of the LSP process is required. Accurate simulation of the LSP process is a challenging task, because the process has many parameters such as laser spot size, pressure profile and material model that must be precisely determined. This work focuses on investigating the appropriate material model that could be used in simulation and design. In the LSP process material is subjected to strain rates of 10 6  s −1 , which is very high compared with conventional strain rates. The importance of an accurate material model increases because the material behaves significantly different at such high strain rates. This work investigates the effect of multiple nonlinear material models for representing the elastic–plastic behavior of materials. Elastic perfectly plastic, Johnson–Cook and Zerilli–Armstrong models are used, and the performance of each model is compared with available experimental results

  14. Guideline validation in multiple trauma care through business process modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stausberg, Jürgen; Bilir, Hüseyin; Waydhas, Christian; Ruchholtz, Steffen

    2003-07-01

    Clinical guidelines can improve the quality of care in multiple trauma. In our Department of Trauma Surgery a specific guideline is available paper-based as a set of flowcharts. This format is appropriate for the use by experienced physicians but insufficient for electronic support of learning, workflow and process optimization. A formal and logically consistent version represented with a standardized meta-model is necessary for automatic processing. In our project we transferred the paper-based into an electronic format and analyzed the structure with respect to formal errors. Several errors were detected in seven error categories. The errors were corrected to reach a formally and logically consistent process model. In a second step the clinical content of the guideline was revised interactively using a process-modeling tool. Our study reveals that guideline development should be assisted by process modeling tools, which check the content in comparison to a meta-model. The meta-model itself could support the domain experts in formulating their knowledge systematically. To assure sustainability of guideline development a representation independent of specific applications or specific provider is necessary. Then, clinical guidelines could be used for eLearning, process optimization and workflow management additionally.

  15. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  16. Multiphysics Simulations of Entrained Flow Gasification. Part I: Validating the Nonreacting Flow Solver and the Particle Turbulent Dispersion Model

    KAUST Repository

    Kumar, Mayank; Ghoniem, Ahmed F.

    2012-01-01

    In this two-part paper, we describe the construction, validation, and application of a multiscale model of entrained flow gasification. The accuracy of the model is demonstrated by (1) rigorously constructing and validating the key constituent

  17. Validation of Hydrodynamic Numerical Model of a Pitching Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López, Maria del Pilar Heras; Thomas, Sarah; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede

    2017-01-01

    Validation of numerical model is essential in the development of new technologies. Commercial software and codes available simulating wave energy converters (WECs) have not been proved to work for all the available and upcoming technologies yet. The present paper presents the first stages...... of the validation process of a hydrodynamic numerical model for a pitching wave energy converter. The development of dry tests, wave flume and wave basin experiments are going to be explained, lessons learned shared and results presented....

  18. Validating a Finite Element Model of a Structure Subjected to Mine Blast with Experimental Modal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Howle, Dmitriy Krayterman, Justin E Pritchett, and Ryan Sorenson 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING...The Under-body Blast Methodology (UBM) for the Test and Evaluation (T&E) program was established to provide a capability for the US Army Test and...and must be validated. The UBM for the T&E program has completed efforts to validate soil models but not structural dynamics models. Modal testing

  19. Determination of clouds in MSG data for the validation of clouds in a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Huckle, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate models (e.g. CLM) can help to asses the influence of the antropogenic climate change on the different regions of the earth. Validation of these models is very important. Satellite data are of great benefit, as data on a global scale and high temporal resolution is available. In this thesis a cloud detection and object based cloud classification for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) was developed and used to validate CLM clouds. Results show sometimes too many clouds in the CLM.

  20. Validated biomechanical model for efficiency and speed of rowing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelz, Peter F; Vergé, Angela

    2014-10-17

    The speed of a competitive rowing crew depends on the number of crew members, their body mass, sex and the type of rowing-sweep rowing or sculling. The time-averaged speed is proportional to the rower's body mass to the 1/36th power, to the number of crew members to the 1/9th power and to the physiological efficiency (accounted for by the rower's sex) to the 1/3rd power. The quality of the rowing shell and propulsion system is captured by one dimensionless parameter that takes the mechanical efficiency, the shape and drag coefficient of the shell and the Froude propulsion efficiency into account. We derive the biomechanical equation for the speed of rowing by two independent methods and further validate it by successfully predicting race times. We derive the theoretical upper limit of the Froude propulsion efficiency for low viscous flows. This upper limit is shown to be a function solely of the velocity ratio of blade to boat speed (i.e., it is completely independent of the blade shape), a result that may also be of interest for other repetitive propulsion systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Development and validation of a tokamak skin effect transformer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero, J.A.; Moret, J.-M.; Coda, S.; Felici, F.; Garrido, I.

    2012-01-01

    A lumped parameter, state space model for a tokamak transformer including the slow flux penetration in the plasma (skin effect transformer model) is presented. The model does not require detailed or explicit information about plasma profiles or geometry. Instead, this information is lumped in system variables, parameters and inputs. The model has an exact mathematical structure built from energy and flux conservation theorems, predicting the evolution and non-linear interaction of plasma current and internal inductance as functions of the primary coil currents, plasma resistance, non-inductive current drive and the loop voltage at a specific location inside the plasma (equilibrium loop voltage). Loop voltage profile in the plasma is substituted by a three-point discretization, and ordinary differential equations are used to predict the equilibrium loop voltage as a function of the boundary and resistive loop voltages. This provides a model for equilibrium loop voltage evolution, which is reminiscent of the skin effect. The order and parameters of this differential equation are determined empirically using system identification techniques. Fast plasma current modulation experiments with random binary signals have been conducted in the TCV tokamak to generate the required data for the analysis. Plasma current was modulated under ohmic conditions between 200 and 300 kA with 30 ms rise time, several times faster than its time constant L/R ≈ 200 ms. A second-order linear differential equation for equilibrium loop voltage is sufficient to describe the plasma current and internal inductance modulation with 70% and 38% fit parameters, respectively. The model explains the most salient features of the plasma current transients, such as the inverse correlation between plasma current ramp rates and internal inductance changes, without requiring detailed or explicit information about resistivity profiles. This proves that a lumped parameter modelling approach can be used to

  2. Capillary Rise: Validity of the Dynamic Contact Angle Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pingkeng; Nikolov, Alex D; Wasan, Darsh T

    2017-08-15

    The classical Lucas-Washburn-Rideal (LWR) equation, using the equilibrium contact angle, predicts a faster capillary rise process than experiments in many cases. The major contributor to the faster prediction is believed to be the velocity dependent dynamic contact angle. In this work, we investigated the dynamic contact angle models for their ability to correct the dynamic contact angle effect in the capillary rise process. We conducted capillary rise experiments of various wetting liquids in borosilicate glass capillaries and compared the model predictions with our experimental data. The results show that the LWR equations modified by the molecular kinetic theory and hydrodynamic model provide good predictions on the capillary rise of all the testing liquids with fitting parameters, while the one modified by Joos' empirical equation works for specific liquids, such as silicone oils. The LWR equation modified by molecular self-layering model predicts well the capillary rise of carbon tetrachloride, octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane, and n-alkanes with the molecular diameter or measured solvation force data. The molecular self-layering model modified LWR equation also has good predictions on the capillary rise of silicone oils covering a wide range of bulk viscosities with the same key parameter W(0), which results from the molecular self-layering. The advantage of the molecular self-layering model over the other models reveals the importance of the layered molecularly thin wetting film ahead of the main meniscus in the energy dissipation associated with dynamic contact angle. The analysis of the capillary rise of silicone oils with a wide range of bulk viscosities provides new insights into the capillary dynamics of polymer melts.

  3. Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk Nordstrom, D.

    2012-01-01

    Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.

  4. Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vehtari, Aki; Mononen, Tommi; Tolvanen, Ville

    2016-01-01

    The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the Laplace method or expectation propagation (EP). We study...... the properties of several Bayesian leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation approximations that in most cases can be computed with a small additional cost after forming the posterior approximation given the full data. Our main objective is to assess the accuracy of the approximative LOO cross-validation estimators...

  5. Model validity and frequency band selection in operational modal analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Siu-Kui

    2016-12-01

    Experimental modal analysis aims at identifying the modal properties (e.g., natural frequencies, damping ratios, mode shapes) of a structure using vibration measurements. Two basic questions are encountered when operating in the frequency domain: Is there a mode near a particular frequency? If so, how much spectral data near the frequency can be included for modal identification without incurring significant modeling error? For data with high signal-to-noise (s/n) ratios these questions can be addressed using empirical tools such as singular value spectrum. Otherwise they are generally open and can be challenging, e.g., for modes with low s/n ratios or close modes. In this work these questions are addressed using a Bayesian approach. The focus is on operational modal analysis, i.e., with 'output-only' ambient data, where identification uncertainty and modeling error can be significant and their control is most demanding. The approach leads to 'evidence ratios' quantifying the relative plausibility of competing sets of modeling assumptions. The latter involves modeling the 'what-if-not' situation, which is non-trivial but is resolved by systematic consideration of alternative models and using maximum entropy principle. Synthetic and field data are considered to investigate the behavior of evidence ratios and how they should be interpreted in practical applications.

  6. Validation and extension of the reward-mountain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, Yannick-André; Mullett, Ada; Conover, Kent; Shizgal, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The reward-mountain model relates the vigor of reward seeking to the strength and cost of reward. Application of this model provides information about the stage of processing at which manipulations such as drug administration, lesions, deprivation states, and optogenetic interventions act to alter reward seeking. The model has been updated by incorporation of new information about frequency following in the directly stimulated neurons responsible for brain stimulation reward and about the function that maps objective opportunity costs into subjective ones. The behavioral methods for applying the model have been updated and improved as well. To assess the impact of these changes, two related predictions of the model that were supported by earlier work have been retested: (1) altering the duration of rewarding brain stimulation should change the pulse frequency required to produce a reward of half-maximal intensity, and (2) this manipulation should not change the opportunity cost at which half-maximal performance is directed at earning a maximally intense reward. Prediction 1 was supported in all six subjects, but prediction 2 was supported in only three. The latter finding is interpreted to reflect recruitment, at some stimulation sites, of a heterogeneous reward substrate comprising dual, parallel circuits that integrate the stimulation-induced neural signals.

  7. Field Trial Measurements to Validate a Stochastic Aircraft Boarding Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schultz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient boarding procedures have to consider both operational constraints and the individual passenger behavior. In contrast to the aircraft handling processes of fueling, catering and cleaning, the boarding process is more driven by passengers than by airport or airline operators. This paper delivers a comprehensive set of operational data including classification of boarding times, passenger arrival times, times to store hand luggage, and passenger interactions in the aircraft cabin as a reliable basis for calibrating models for aircraft boarding. In this paper, a microscopic approach is used to model the passenger behavior, where the passenger movement is defined as a one-dimensional, stochastic, and time/space discrete transition process. This model is used to compare measurements from field trials of boarding procedures with simulation results and demonstrates a deviation smaller than 5%.

  8. Electrode-tissues interface: modeling and experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawan, M; Laaziri, Y; Mounaim, F; Elzayat, E; Corcos, J; Elhilali, M M

    2007-01-01

    The electrode-tissues interface (ETI) is one of the key issues in implantable devices such as stimulators and sensors. Once the stimulator is implanted, safety and reliability become more and more critical. In this case, modeling and monitoring of the ETI are required. We propose an empirical model for the ETI and a dedicated integrated circuit to measure its corresponding complex impedance. These measurements in the frequency range of 1 Hz to 100 kHz were achieved in acute dog experiments. The model demonstrates a closer fitting with experimental measurements. In addition, a custom monitoring device based on a stimuli current generator has been completed to evaluate the phase shift and voltage across the electrodes and to transmit wirelessly the values to an external controller. This integrated circuit has been fabricated in a CMOS 0.18 μm process, which consumes 4 mW only during measurements and occupies an area of 1 mm 2 . (review article)

  9. Implementation and validation of a condensation model in ANSYS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmkuhl, J.; Kelm, S.; Allelein, H.J.; Forschungszentrum Juelich

    2012-01-01

    During design-based beyond-design accidents large amounts of steam and hydrogen are released onto the containment. The knowledge on the local distribution of gases and atmospheric conditions is therefore necessary for the design of safety systems or emergency measures. Condensation processes have a significant influence on the thermal hydraulics, the hydrogen combustion and the aerosol behavior in the containment. The presented one-phase condensation model was developed for an effective CFD modeling of condensation processes in ANSYS CFX for accident analyses. Based on the assumption that wall condensation is mainly determined by the mass transport the assumption of thermal equilibrium can be used for one-phase calculations. The modeling concept is applicable for wall and volume condensation and has been implemented.

  10. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by

  11. Validation of a Wave-Body Interaction Model by Experimental Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferri, Francesco; Kramer, Morten; Pecher, Arthur

    2013-01-01

    Within the wave energy field, numerical simulation has recently acquired a worldwide consent as being a useful tool, besides physical model testing. The main goal of this work is the validation of a numerical model by experimental results. The numerical model is based on a linear wave-body intera...

  12. Validation of a functional model for integration of safety into process system design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, J.; Lind, M.; Zhang, X.

    2015-01-01

    with the process system functionalities as required for the intended safety applications. To provide the scientific rigor and facilitate the acceptance of qualitative modelling, this contribution focuses on developing a scientifically based validation method for functional models. The Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM...

  13. Transient Model Validation of Fixed-Speed Induction Generator Using Wind Farm Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rogdakis, Georgios; Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Arana Aristi, Iván

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an electromagnetic transient model for fixed-speed wind turbines equipped with induction generators is developed and implemented in PSCAD/EMTDC. The model is comprised by: an induction generator, aerodynamic rotor, and a two-mass representation of the shaft system. Model validation...

  14. Validating Cross-Perspective Topic Modeling for Extracting Political Parties' Positions from Parliamentary Proceedings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaan, J.M.; Marx, M.; Kamps, J.; Kaminka, G.A.; Fox, M.; Bouquet, P.; Hüllermeyer, E.; Dignum, V.; Dignum, F.; van Harmelen, F.

    2016-01-01

    In the literature, different topic models have been introduced that target the task of viewpoint extraction. Because, generally, these studies do not present thorough validations of the models they introduce, it is not clear in advance which topic modeling technique will work best for our use case

  15. Radiation Background and Attenuation Model Validation and Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peplow, Douglas E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Santiago, Claudio P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-08-05

    This report describes the initial results of a study being conducted as part of the Urban Search Planning Tool project. The study is comparing the Urban Scene Simulator (USS), a one-dimensional (1D) radiation transport model developed at LLNL, with the three-dimensional (3D) radiation transport model from ORNL using the MCNP, SCALE/ORIGEN and SCALE/MAVRIC simulation codes. In this study, we have analyzed the differences between the two approaches at every step, from source term representation, to estimating flux and detector count rates at a fixed distance from a simple surface (slab), and at points throughout more complex 3D scenes.

  16. Validation of theoretical models through measured pavement response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullidtz, Per

    1999-01-01

    mechanics was quite different from the measured stress, the peak theoretical value being only half of the measured value.On an instrumented pavement structure in the Danish Road Testing Machine, deflections were measured at the surface of the pavement under FWD loading. Different analytical models were...... then used to derive the elastic parameters of the pavement layeres, that would produce deflections matching the measured deflections. Stresses and strains were then calculated at the position of the gauges and compared to the measured values. It was found that all analytical models would predict the tensile...

  17. Dynamic Modeling of Wind Turbine Gearboxes and Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rune

    Grinding corrections are often applied to gear teeth, which will alter the load distribution across the tooth. Grinding corrections will also change the load sharing between neighboring tooth pairs, and in turn the gear mesh stiffness. In this thesis, a model for calculating the gear mesh stiffness...... is presented. The model takes into account the effects of load and applied grinding corrections. The results are verified by comparing to simulated and experimental results reported in the existing literature. Using gear data loosely based on a 1 MW wind turbine gearbox, the gear mesh stiffness is expanded...

  18. Validation of an employee satisfaction model: A structural equation model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ophillia Ledimo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to validate an employee satisfaction model and to determine the relationships between the different dimensions of the concept, using the structural equation modelling approach (SEM. A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was used to collect data from a random sample of (n=759 permanent employees of a parastatal organisation. Data was collected using the Employee Satisfaction Survey (ESS to measure employee satisfaction dimensions. Following the steps of SEM analysis, the three domains and latent variables of employee satisfaction were specified as organisational strategy, policies and procedures, and outcomes. Confirmatory factor analysis of the latent variables was conducted, and the path coefficients of the latent variables of the employee satisfaction model indicated a satisfactory fit for all these variables. The goodness-of-fit measure of the model indicated both absolute and incremental goodness-of-fit; confirming the relationships between the latent and manifest variables. It also indicated that the latent variables, organisational strategy, policies and procedures, and outcomes, are the main indicators of employee satisfaction. This study adds to the knowledge base on employee satisfaction and makes recommendations for future research.

  19. Experimental validation and calibration of pedestrian loading models for footbridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ricciardelli, Fransesco; Briatico, C; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór

    2006-01-01

    Different patterns of pedestrian loading of footbridges exist, whose occurrence depends on a number of parameters, such as the bridge span, frequency, damping and mass, and the pedestrian density and activity. In this paper analytical models for the transient action of one walker and for the stat...

  20. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  1. A Methodology for Validation of High Resolution Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-06-01

    TELEOLOGICAL PROBLEM ................................ 7 C. EPISTEMOLOGICAL PROBLEM ............................. 8 D. UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE...theoretical issues. "The Teleological Problem"--How a model by its nature formulates an explicit cause-and-effect relationship that excludes other...34experts" in establishing the standard for reality. Generalization from personal experience is often hampered by the parochial aspects of the

  2. A Model for Wetland Hydrology: Description and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.S. Mansell; S.A. Bloom; Ge Sun

    2000-01-01

    WETLANDS, a multidimensional model describing water flow in variably saturated soil and evapotranspiration, was used to simulate successfully 3-years of local hydrology for a cypress pond located within a relatively flat Coastal Plain pine forest landscape. Assumptions included negligible net regional groundwater flow and radially symmetric local flow impinging on a...

  3. Experimental Analysis and Model Validation of an Opaque Ventilated Facade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López, F. Peci; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2012-01-01

    Natural ventilation is a convenient way of reducing energy consumption in buildings. In this study an experimental module of an opaque ventilated façade (OVF) was built and tested for assessing its potential of supplying free ventilation and air preheating for the building. A numerical model was ...

  4. Simulating pattern-process relationships to validate landscape genetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. J. Shirk; S. A. Cushman; E. L. Landguth

    2012-01-01

    Landscapes may resist gene flow and thereby give rise to a pattern of genetic isolation within a population. The mechanism by which a landscape resists gene flow can be inferred by evaluating the relationship between landscape models and an observed pattern of genetic isolation. This approach risks false inferences because researchers can never feasibly test all...

  5. Validation of an internal hardwood log defect prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The type, size, and location of internal defects dictate the grade and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. However, acquiring internal defect knowledge with x-ray/computed-tomography or magnetic-resonance imaging technology can be expensive both in time and cost. An alternative approach uses prediction models based on correlations among external defect indicators...

  6. Numerical modelling of negative discharges in air with experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran, T N; Golosnoy, I O; Lewin, P L; Georghiou, G E

    2011-01-01

    Axisymmetric finite element models have been developed for the simulation of negative discharges in air without and with the presence of dielectrics. The models are based on the hydrodynamic drift-diffusion approximation. A set of continuity equations accounting for the movement, generation and loss of charge carriers (electrons, positive and negative ions) is coupled with Poisson's equation to take into account the effect of space and surface charges on the electric field. The model of a negative corona discharge (without dielectric barriers) in a needle-plane geometry is analysed first. The results obtained show good agreement with experimental observations for various Trichel pulse characteristics. With dielectric barriers introduced into the discharge system, the surface discharge exhibits some similarities and differences to the corona case. The model studies the dynamics of volume charge generation, electric field variations and charge accumulation over the dielectric surface. The predicted surface charge density is consistent with experimental results obtained from the Pockels experiment in terms of distribution form and magnitude.

  7. Continuum model for masonry: Parameter estimation and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourenço, P.B.; Rots, J.G.; Blaauwendraad, J.

    1998-01-01

    A novel yield criterion that includes different strengths along each material axis is presented. The criterion includes two different fracture energies in tension and two different fracture energies in compression. The ability of the model to represent the inelastic behavior of orthotropic materials

  8. Model Verification and Validation Using Graphical Information Systems Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-31

    Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be...12 Geomorphic Measurements...to a model. Ocean flows, which are organized E-2 current systems, transport heat and salinity and cause water to pile up as a water surface

  9. Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems

  10. Alteration of 'R7T7' type nuclear glasses: statistical approach, experimental validation, local evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thierry, F.

    2003-02-01

    The aim of this work is to propose an evolution of nuclear (R7T7-type) glass alteration modeling. The first part of this thesis is about development and validation of the 'r(t)' model. This model which predicts the decrease of alteration rates in confined conditions is based upon a coupling between a first-order dissolution law and a diffusion barrier effect of the alteration gel layer. The values and the uncertainties regarding the main adjustable parameters of the model (α, Dg and C*) have been determined from a systematic study of the available experimental data. A program called INVERSION has been written for this purpose. This work lead to characterize the validity domain of the 'r(t)' model and to parametrize it. Validation experiments have been undertaken, confirming the validity of the parametrization over 200 days. A new model is proposed in the second part of this thesis. It is based on an inhibition of glass dissolution reaction by silicon coupled with a local description of silicon retention in the alteration gel layer. This model predicts the evolutions of boron and silicon concentrations in solution as well as the concentrations and retention profiles in the gel layer. These predictions have been compared to measurements of retention profiles by the secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) method. The model has been validated on fractions of gel layer which reactivity present low or moderate disparities. (author)

  11. On-line validation of linear process models using generalized likelihood ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-12-01

    A real-time method for testing the validity of linear models of nonlinear processes is described and evaluated. Using generalized likelihood ratios, the model dynamics are continually monitored to see if the process has moved far enough away from the nominal linear model operating point to justify generation of a new linear model. The method is demonstrated using a seventh-order model of a natural circulation steam generator

  12. VALIDITY OF THE DIMENSIONAL CONFIGURATION OF THE REDUCED POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE MODEL IN SKI JUMPING

    OpenAIRE

    Ulaga, Maja; Čoh, Milan; Jošt, Bojan

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the study was to establish the validity of the dimensional configuration of the reduced po-tential performance model in ski jumping. Two performance models were prepared (models A and B), dif-fering only in terms of their method of determining the weights (dimensional configuration). Model A in-volves the dependent determination of weights while model B includes the independent determination of weights. The sample consisted of 104 Slovenian ski jumpers from the senior-men’s categor...

  13. Soil process modelling in CZO research: gains in data harmonisation and model validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gaans, Pauline; Andrianaki, Maria; Kobierska, Florian; Kram, Pavel; Lamacova, Anna; Lair, Georg; Nikolaidis, Nikos; Duffy, Chris; Regelink, Inge; van Leeuwen, Jeroen P.; de Ruiter, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Various soil process models were applied to four European Critical Zone observatories (CZOs), the core research sites of the FP7 project SoilTrEC: the Damma glacier forefield (CH), a set of three forested catchments on geochemically contrasing bedrocks in the Slavkov Forest (CZ), a chronosequence of soils in the former floodplain of the Danube of Fuchsenbigl/Marchfeld (AT), and the Koiliaris catchments in the north-western part of Crete, (GR). The aim of the modelling exercises was to apply and test soil process models with data from the CZOs for calibration/validation, identify potential limits to the application scope of the models, interpret soil state and soil functions at key stages of the soil life cycle, represented by the four SoilTrEC CZOs, contribute towards harmonisation of data and data acquisition. The models identified as specifically relevant were: The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM), a fully coupled, multiprocess, multi-scale hydrologic model, to get a better understanding of water flow and pathways, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a deterministic, continuous time (daily time step) basin scale model, to evaluate the impact of soil management practices, The Rothamsted Carbon model (Roth-C) to simulate organic carbon turnover and the Carbon, Aggregation, and Structure Turnover (CAST) model to include the role of soil aggregates in carbon dynamics, The Ligand Charge Distribution (LCD) model, to understand the interaction between organic matter and oxide surfaces in soil aggregate formation, and The Terrestrial Ecology Model (TEM) to obtain insight into the link between foodweb structure and carbon and nutrient turnover. With some exceptions all models were applied to all four CZOs. The need for specific model input contributed largely to data harmonisation. The comparisons between the CZOs turned out to be of great value for understanding the strength and limitations of the models, as well as the differences in soil conditions

  14. Training and Validation of the Fast PCRTM_Solar Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Q.; Liu, X.; Wu, W.; Yang, P.; Wang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Fast and accurate radiative transfer model is the key for satellite data assimilation for remote sensing application. The simulation of the satellite remote sensing radiances is very complicated since many physical processes, such as absorption, emission, and scattering, are involved due to the interactions between electromagnetic radiation and earth surface, water vapor, clouds, aerosols, and gas molecules in the sky. The principal component-based radiative transfer model (PCRTM) has been developed for various passive IR and MW instruments. In this work, we extended PCRTM to including the contribution from solar radiation. The cloud/aerosol bidirectional reflectances have been carefully calculated using the well-known Discrete-Ordinate-Method Radiative Transfer (DISORT) model under over 10 millions of diverse conditions with varying cloud particle size, wavelength, satellite viewing direction, and solar angles. The obtained results were compressed significantly using principal component analysis and used in the mono domain radiance calculation. We used 1352 different atmosphere profiles, each of them has different surface skin temperatures and surface pressures in our training. Different surface emissivity spectra were derived from ASTER database and emissivity models. Some artificially generated emissivity spectra were also used to account for diverse surface types of the earth. Concentrations of sixteen trace gases were varied systematically in the training and the remaining trace gas contributions were accounted for as a fixed gas. Training was done in both clear and cloudy skies conditions. Finally the nonlocal thermal equilibrium (NLTE) induced radiance change was included for daytime conditions. We have updated the PCRTM model for instruments such as IASI, NASTI, CrIS, AIRS, and SHIS. The training results show that the PCRTM model can calculate thousands of channel radiances by computing only a few hundreds of mono radiances. This greatly increased the

  15. Validation of turbulence models for LMFBR outlet plenum flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y.B.; Golay, M.W.

    1977-01-01

    Small scale experiments involving water flows are used to provide mean flow and turbulence field data for LMFBR outlet plenum flows. Measurements are performed at Reynolds number (Re) values of 33000 and 70000 in a 1/15 - scale FFTF geometry and at Re = 35000 in a 3/80-scale CRBR geometry. The experimental behavior is predicted using two different two-equation turbulence model computer programs, TEACH-T and VARR-II. It is found that the qualitative nature of the flow field within the plenum depends strongly upon the distribution of the mean inlet flow field, importantly also upon the degree of inlet turbulence, and also upon the turbulent momentum exchange model used in the calculations. In the FFTF geometry, the TEACH-T predictions agree well with the experiments. 7 refs

  16. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  17. Animal models of social anxiety disorder and their validity criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Réus, Gislaine Z; Dos Santos, Maria Augusta B; Abelaira, Helena M; Quevedo, João

    2014-09-26

    Anxiety disorders pose one of the largest threats to global mental health, and they predominantly emerge early in life. Social anxiety disorder, also known as social phobia, is the most common of all anxiety disorders. Moreover, it has severe consequences and is a disabling disorder that can cause an individual to be unable to perform the tasks of daily life. Social anxiety disorder is associated with the subsequent development of major depression and other mental diseases, as well as increased substance abuse. Although some neurobiological alterations have been found to be associated with social anxiety disorder, little is known about this disorder. Animal models are useful tools for the investigation of this disorder, as well as for finding new pharmacological targets for treatment. Thus, this review will highlight the main animal models of anxiety associated with social phobia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Probability of Detection (POD) as a statistical model for the validation of qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehling, Paul; LaBudde, Robert A; Brunelle, Sharon L; Nelson, Maria T

    2011-01-01

    A statistical model is presented for use in validation of qualitative methods. This model, termed Probability of Detection (POD), harmonizes the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. POD characterizes method response with respect to concentration as a continuous variable. The POD model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods. In addition, the model allows comparisons between candidate and reference methods, and provides calculations of repeatability, reproducibility, and laboratory effects from collaborative study data. Single laboratory study and collaborative study examples are given.

  19. Sizing and scaling requirements of a large-scale physical model for code validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaleel, R.; Legore, T.

    1990-01-01

    Model validation is an important consideration in application of a code for performance assessment and therefore in assessing the long-term behavior of the engineered and natural barriers of a geologic repository. Scaling considerations relevant to porous media flow are reviewed. An analysis approach is presented for determining the sizing requirements of a large-scale, hydrology physical model. The physical model will be used to validate performance assessment codes that evaluate the long-term behavior of the repository isolation system. Numerical simulation results for sizing requirements are presented for a porous medium model in which the media properties are spatially uncorrelated

  20. The Validation of a Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersed Binomial Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongphil; Lee, Ji-Hyun

    2017-01-01

    The beta-binomial model has been widely used as an analytically tractable alternative that captures the overdispersion of an intra-correlated, binomial random variable, X . However, the model validation for X has been rarely investigated. As a beta-binomial mass function takes on a few different shapes, the model validation is examined for each of the classified shapes in this paper. Further, the mean square error (MSE) is illustrated for each shape by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on a beta-binomial model approach and the method of moments estimator (MME) in order to gauge when and how much the MLE is biased.

  1. Implementation and automated validation of the minimal Z' model in FeynRules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basso, L.; Christensen, N.D.; Duhr, C.; Fuks, B.; Speckner, C.

    2012-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a well-known class of U(1) gauge models, the 'minimal' Z' models, in FeynRules. We also describe a new automated validation tool for FeynRules models which is controlled by a web interface and allows the user to run a complete set of 2 → 2 processes on different matrix element generators, different gauges, and compare between them all. If existing, the comparison with independent implementations is also possible. This tool has been used to validate our implementation of the 'minimal' Z' models. (authors)

  2. Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli, and comparable to the previous validation round (RMSE approximately 10%). The results further confirm that the distraction model can be used as a valuable tool in evaluating and optimizing...

  3. Validating a perceptual distraction model using a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user's perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music targets and interferers using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two...... sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. The results show that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech- on-music and music-on-speech stimuli...

  4. User Modelling Validation over the Security Awareness of Digital Natives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasileios Gkioulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Young generations make extensive use of mobile devices, such as smart-phones, tablets and laptops, for a variety of daily tasks with potentially critical impact, while the number of security breaches via portable devices increases exponentially. A plethora of security risks associated with these devices are induced by design shortcomings and vulnerabilities related to user behavior. Therefore, deploying suitable risk treatments requires the investigation of how security experts perceive the digital natives (young people, born in the digital era, when utilizing their user behavior models in the design and analysis of related systems. In this article, we present the results of a survey performed across a multinational sample of security professionals, in comparison to our earlier study over the security awareness of digital natives. Through this study, we seek to identify divergences between user behavior and the conceptual user-models that security experts utilise in their professional tasks. Our results indicate that the experts understanding over the user behaviour does not follow a solidified user-model, while influences from personal perceptions and randomness are also noticeable.

  5. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis : Model development and validation of existing models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomes, Anna; van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J

    2017-01-01

    Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for

  6. Sewer solids separation by sedimentation--the problem of modeling, validation and transferability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutzner, R; Brombach, H; Geiger, W F

    2007-01-01

    Sedimentation of sewer solids in tanks, ponds and similar devices is the most relevant process for the treatment of stormwater and combined sewer overflows in urban collecting systems. In the past a lot of research work was done to develop deterministic models for the description of this separation process. But these modern models are not commonly accepted in Germany until today. Water Authorities are sceptical with regard to model validation and transferability. Within this paper it is checked whether this scepticism is reasonable. A framework-proposal for the validation of mathematical models with zero or one dimensional spatial resolution for particle separation processes for stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment is presented. This proposal was applied to publications of repute on sewer solids separation by sedimentation. The result was that none of the investigated models described in literature passed the validation entirely. There is an urgent need for future research in sewer solids sedimentation and remobilization!

  7. Application of environmental isotopes to validate a model of regional groundwater flow and transport (Carrizo Aquifer)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearson, F.J.

    1999-01-01

    It is asserted that models cannot be validated. This seems obvious if one identifies validation as the process of testing a model against absolute truth, and accepts that absolute truth is less a scientific than a philosophic or religious concept. What is here called model validation has a more modest goal - to develop confidence in the conceptual and mathematical models used to describe a groundwater system by illustrating that measured radiochemical properties of the groundwater match those predicted by the model. The system described is the Carrizo sand in the Gulf Coastal Plain of south Texas. Each element of the modelling chain describing the movement of 14 C is confirmed independently and, thus, can be said to be validated. The groundwater ages, and the 14 C measurements and carbonate geochemical model underlying them, are confirmed by the noble gas measurements, while the flow and transport model is confirmed by the 14 C results. Agreement between the modelled and measured 234 U/ 238 U ratios supports the description of U transport used in the modelling, while the need to use an unexpectedly low K D value for U raises questions about the applicability of laboratory K D data to the Carrizo groundwater system. (author)

  8. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  9. MCNP HPGe detector benchmark with previously validated Cyltran model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hau, I D; Russ, W R; Bronson, F

    2009-05-01

    An exact copy of the detector model generated for Cyltran was reproduced as an MCNP input file and the detection efficiency was calculated similarly with the methodology used in previous experimental measurements and simulation of a 280 cm(3) HPGe detector. Below 1000 keV the MCNP data correlated to the Cyltran results within 0.5% while above this energy the difference between MCNP and Cyltran increased to about 6% at 4800 keV, depending on the electron cut-off energy.

  10. Data Set for Emperical Validation of Double Skin Facade Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2008-01-01

    During the recent years the attention to the double skin facade (DSF) concept has greatly increased. Nevertheless, the application of the concept depends on whether a reliable model for simulation of the DSF performance will be developed or pointed out. This is, however, not possible to do, until...... the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 34 Annex 43. This paper describes the full-scale outdoor experimental test facility ‘the Cube', where the experiments were conducted, the experimental set-up and the measurements procedure for the data sets. The empirical data is composed for the key-functioning modes...

  11. Modeling dynamic acousto-elastic testing experiments: validation and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gliozzi, A S; Scalerandi, M

    2014-10-01

    Materials possessing micro-inhomogeneities often display a nonlinear response to mechanical solicitations, which is sensitive to the confining pressure acting on the sample. Dynamic acoustoelastic testing allows measurement of the instantaneous variations in the elastic modulus due to the change of the dynamic pressure induced by a low-frequency wave. This paper shows that a Preisach-Mayergoyz space based hysteretic multi-state elastic model provides an explanation for experimental observations in consolidated granular media and predicts memory and nonlinear effects comparable to those measured in rocks.

  12. Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, Henry [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Gill, Philip [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

  13. A comprehensive validation toolbox for regional ocean models - Outline, implementation and application to the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandt, Simon; Laagemaa, Priidik; Janssen, Frank

    2014-05-01

    The systematic and objective comparison between output from a numerical ocean model and a set of observations, called validation in the context of this presentation, is a beneficial activity at several stages, starting from early steps in model development and ending at the quality control of model based products delivered to customers. Even though the importance of this kind of validation work is widely acknowledged it is often not among the most popular tasks in ocean modelling. In order to ease the validation work a comprehensive toolbox has been developed in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. The objective of this toolbox is to carry out validation integrating different data sources, e.g. time-series at stations, vertical profiles, surface fields or along track satellite data, with one single program call. The validation toolbox, implemented in MATLAB, features all parts of the validation process - ranging from read-in procedures of datasets to the graphical and numerical output of statistical metrics of the comparison. The basic idea is to have only one well-defined validation schedule for all applications, in which all parts of the validation process are executed. Each part, e.g. read-in procedures, forms a module in which all available functions of this particular part are collected. The interface between the functions, the module and the validation schedule is highly standardized. Functions of a module are set up for certain validation tasks, new functions can be implemented into the appropriate module without affecting the functionality of the toolbox. The functions are assigned for each validation task in user specific settings, which are externally stored in so-called namelists and gather all information of the used datasets as well as paths and metadata. In the framework of the MyOcean-2 project the toolbox is frequently used to validate the forecast products of the Baltic Sea Marine Forecasting Centre. Hereby the performance of any new product

  14. Experimental Validation of Various Temperature Modells for Semi-Physical Tyre Model Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackl, Andreas; Scherndl, Christoph; Hirschberg, Wolfgang; Lex, Cornelia

    2017-10-01

    With increasing level of complexity and automation in the area of automotive engineering, the simulation of safety relevant Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) leads to increasing accuracy demands in the description of tyre contact forces. In recent years, with improvement in tyre simulation, the needs for coping with tyre temperatures and the resulting changes in tyre characteristics are rising significantly. Therefore, experimental validation of three different temperature model approaches is carried out, discussed and compared in the scope of this article. To investigate or rather evaluate the range of application of the presented approaches in combination with respect of further implementation in semi-physical tyre models, the main focus lies on the a physical parameterisation. Aside from good modelling accuracy, focus is held on computational time and complexity of the parameterisation process. To evaluate this process and discuss the results, measurements from a Hoosier racing tyre 6.0 / 18.0 10 LCO C2000 from an industrial flat test bench are used. Finally the simulation results are compared with the measurement data.

  15. Validation of protein models by a neural network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fantucci Piercarlo

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The development and improvement of reliable computational methods designed to evaluate the quality of protein models is relevant in the context of protein structure refinement, which has been recently identified as one of the bottlenecks limiting the quality and usefulness of protein structure prediction. Results In this contribution, we present a computational method (Artificial Intelligence Decoys Evaluator: AIDE which is able to consistently discriminate between correct and incorrect protein models. In particular, the method is based on neural networks that use as input 15 structural parameters, which include energy, solvent accessible surface, hydrophobic contacts and secondary structure content. The results obtained with AIDE on a set of decoy structures were evaluated using statistical indicators such as Pearson correlation coefficients, Znat, fraction enrichment, as well as ROC plots. It turned out that AIDE performances are comparable and often complementary to available state-of-the-art learning-based methods. Conclusion In light of the results obtained with AIDE, as well as its comparison with available learning-based methods, it can be concluded that AIDE can be successfully used to evaluate the quality of protein structures. The use of AIDE in combination with other evaluation tools is expected to further enhance protein refinement efforts.

  16. DMFC anode polarization: Experimental analysis and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casalegno, A.; Marchesi, R. [Dipartimento di Energetica, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)

    2008-01-03

    Anode two-phase flow has an important influence on DMFC performance and methanol crossover. In order to elucidate two-phase flow influence on anode performance, in this work, anode polarization is investigated combining experimental and modelling approach. A systematic experimental analysis of operating conditions influence on anode polarization is presented. Hysteresis due to operating condition is observed; experimental results suggest that it arises from methanol accumulation and has to be considered in evaluating DMFC performances and measurements reproducibility. A model of DMFC anode polarization is presented and utilised as tool to investigate anode two-phase flow. The proposed analysis permits one to produce a confident interpretation of the main involved phenomena. In particular, it confirms that methanol electro-oxidation kinetics is weakly dependent on methanol concentration and that methanol transport in gas phase produces an important contribution in anode feeding. Moreover, it emphasises the possibility to optimise anode flow rate in order to improve DMFC performance and reduce methanol crossover. (author)

  17. ESCOMPTE 2001: multi-scale modelling and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousin, F.; Tulet, P.; Rosset, R.

    2003-04-01

    ESCOMPTE is a European pollution field experiment located in the Marseille / Fos-Berre area in the summer 2001.This Mediterranean area, with frequent pollution peaks, is characterized by a complex topography subject to sea breeze regimes, together with intense localized urban, industrial and biogenic sources. Four POI have been selected, the most significant being POI2a / b, a 6-day pollution episode extensively documented for dynamics, radiation, gas phase and aerosols, with surface measurements (including measurements at sea in the gulf of Genoa, on board instrumented ferries between Marseille and Corsica), 7 aircrafts, lidar, radar and constant-level flight balloon soundings. The two-way mesoscale model MESO-NH-C (MNH-C), with horizontal resolutions of 9 and 3 km and high vertical resolution (up to 40 levels in the first 2 km), embedded in the global CTM Mocage, has been run for all POIs, with a focus here on POI2b (June 24-27,2001), a typical high pollution episode. The multi-scale modelling system MNH-C+MOCAGE allows to simulate local and regional pollution issued from emission sources in the Marseille / Fos-Berre area as well as from remote sources (e.g. the Po Valley and / or western Mediterranean sources) and their associated transboundary pollution fluxes. Detailed dynamical, chemical and aerosol (both modal and sectional spectra with organics and inorganics) simulations generally favorably compare to surface(continental and on ships), lidar and along-flight aircraft measurements.

  18. Optimization of the artificial urinary sphincter: modelling and experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marti, Florian; Leippold, Thomas; John, Hubert; Blunschi, Nadine; Mueller, Bert

    2006-01-01

    The artificial urinary sphincter should be long enough to prevent strangulation effects of the urethral tissue and short enough to avoid the improper dissection of the surrounding tissue. To optimize the sphincter length, the empirical three-parameter urethra compression model is proposed based on the mechanical properties of the urethra: wall pressure, tissue response rim force and sphincter periphery length. In vitro studies using explanted animal or human urethras and different artificial sphincters demonstrate its applicability. The pressure of the sphincter to close the urethra is shown to be a linear function of the bladder pressure. The force to close the urethra depends on the sphincter length linearly. Human urethras display the same dependences as the urethras of pig, dog, sheep and calf. Quantitatively, however, sow urethras resemble best the human ones. For the human urethras, the mean wall pressure corresponds to (-12.6 ± 0.9) cmH 2 O and (-8.7 ± 1.1) cmH 2 O, the rim length to (3.0 ± 0.3) mm and (5.1 ± 0.3) mm and the rim force to (60 ± 20) mN and (100 ± 20) mN for urethra opening and closing, respectively. Assuming an intravesical pressure of 40 cmH 2 O, and an external pressure on the urethra of 60 cmH 2 O, the model leads to the optimized sphincter length of (17.3 ± 3.8) mm

  19. Process Modeling and Validation for Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunovic, Srdjan [ORNL; Nycz, Andrzej [ORNL; Noakes, Mark W. [ORNL; Chin, Charlie [Dassault Systemes; Oancea, Victor [Dassault Systemes

    2017-05-01

    Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (mBAAM) is a new additive manufacturing (AM) technology based on the metal arc welding. A continuously fed metal wire is melted by an electric arc that forms between the wire and the substrate, and deposited in the form of a bead of molten metal along the predetermined path. Objects are manufactured one layer at a time starting from the base plate. The final properties of the manufactured object are dependent on its geometry and the metal deposition path, in addition to depending on the basic welding process parameters. Computational modeling can be used to accelerate the development of the mBAAM technology as well as a design and optimization tool for the actual manufacturing process. We have developed a finite element method simulation framework for mBAAM using the new features of software ABAQUS. The computational simulation of material deposition with heat transfer is performed first, followed by the structural analysis based on the temperature history for predicting the final deformation and stress state. In this formulation, we assume that two physics phenomena are coupled in only one direction, i.e. the temperatures are driving the deformation and internal stresses, but their feedback on the temperatures is negligible. The experiment instrumentation (measurement types, sensor types, sensor locations, sensor placements, measurement intervals) and the measurements are presented. The temperatures and distortions from the simulations show good correlation with experimental measurements. Ongoing modeling work is also briefly discussed.

  20. Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin A; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R

    2017-01-01

    A "credible" computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing "model credibility" is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a "threshold-based" validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results ("S") of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements ("D"). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student's t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student's t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be

  1. External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

  2. Modeling and validating HL7 FHIR profiles using semantic web Shape Expressions (ShEx).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solbrig, Harold R; Prud'hommeaux, Eric; Grieve, Grahame; McKenzie, Lloyd; Mandel, Joshua C; Sharma, Deepak K; Jiang, Guoqian

    2017-03-01

    HL7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) is an emerging open standard for the exchange of electronic healthcare information. FHIR resources are defined in a specialized modeling language. FHIR instances can currently be represented in either XML or JSON. The FHIR and Semantic Web communities are developing a third FHIR instance representation format in Resource Description Framework (RDF). Shape Expressions (ShEx), a formal RDF data constraint language, is a candidate for describing and validating the FHIR RDF representation. Create a FHIR to ShEx model transformation and assess its ability to describe and validate FHIR RDF data. We created the methods and tools that generate the ShEx schemas modeling the FHIR to RDF specification being developed by HL7 ITS/W3C RDF Task Force, and evaluated the applicability of ShEx in the description and validation of FHIR to RDF transformations. The ShEx models contributed significantly to workgroup consensus. Algorithmic transformations from the FHIR model to ShEx schemas and FHIR example data to RDF transformations were incorporated into the FHIR build process. ShEx schemas representing 109 FHIR resources were used to validate 511 FHIR RDF data examples from the Standards for Trial Use (STU 3) Ballot version. We were able to uncover unresolved issues in the FHIR to RDF specification and detect 10 types of errors and root causes in the actual implementation. The FHIR ShEx representations have been included in the official FHIR web pages for the STU 3 Ballot version since September 2016. ShEx can be used to define and validate the syntax of a FHIR resource, which is complementary to the use of RDF Schema (RDFS) and Web Ontology Language (OWL) for semantic validation. ShEx proved useful for describing a standard model of FHIR RDF data. The combination of a formal model and a succinct format enabled comprehensive review and automated validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Mechanical tests for validation of seismic isolation elastomer constitutive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.

    1992-01-01

    High damping laminated elastomeric bearings are becoming the preferred device for seismic isolation of large buildings and structures, such as nuclear power plants. The key component of these bearings is a filled natural rubber elastomer. This material exhibits nonlinear behavior within the normal design range. The material damping cannot be classified as either viscous or hysteritic, but it seems to fall somewhere in between. This paper describes a series of tests that can be used to characterize the mechanical response of these elastomers. The tests are designed to determine the behavior of the elastomer in the time scale of the earthquake, which is typically from 30 to 60 seconds. The test results provide data for use in determining the material parameters associated with nonlinear constitutive models. 4 refs

  4. Characterization of silicon photomultipliers and validation of the electrical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Peng; Qiang, Yi; Ross, Steve; Burr, Kent

    2018-04-01

    This paper introduces a systematic way to measure most features of the silicon photomultipliers (SiPM). We implement an efficient two-laser procedure to measure the recovery time. Avalanche probability was found to play an important role in explaining the right behavior of the SiPM recovery process. Also, we demonstrate how equivalent circuit parameters measured by optical tests can be used in SPICE modeling to predict details of the time constants relevant to the pulse shape. The SiPM properties measured include breakdown voltage, gain, diode capacitor, quench resistor, quench capacitor, dark count rate, photodetection efficiency, cross-talk and after-pulsing probability, and recovery time. We apply these techniques on the SiPMs from two companies: Hamamatsu and SensL.

  5. Functional validation of candidate genes detected by genomic feature models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Palle Duun; Østergaard, Solveig; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

    2018-01-01

    to investigate locomotor activity, and applied genomic feature prediction models to identify gene ontology (GO) cate- gories predictive of this phenotype. Next, we applied the covariance association test to partition the genomic variance of the predictive GO terms to the genes within these terms. We...... then functionally assessed whether the identified candidate genes affected locomotor activity by reducing gene expression using RNA interference. In five of the seven candidate genes tested, reduced gene expression altered the phenotype. The ranking of genes within the predictive GO term was highly correlated......Understanding the genetic underpinnings of complex traits requires knowledge of the genetic variants that contribute to phenotypic variability. Reliable statistical approaches are needed to obtain such knowledge. In genome-wide association studies, variants are tested for association with trait...

  6. Theoretical temperature model with experimental validation for CLIC Accelerating Structures

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2126138; Vamvakas, Alex; Alme, Johan

    Micron level stability of the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) components is one of the main requirements to meet the luminosity goal for the future $48 \\,km$ long underground linear accelerator. The radio frequency (RF) power used for beam acceleration causes heat generation within the aligned structures, resulting in mechanical movements and structural deformations. A dedicated control of the air- and water- cooling system in the tunnel is therefore crucial to improve alignment accuracy. This thesis investigates the thermo-mechanical behavior of the CLIC Accelerating Structure (AS). In CLIC, the AS must be aligned to a precision of $10\\,\\mu m$. The thesis shows that a relatively simple theoretical model can be used within reasonable accuracy to predict the temperature response of an AS as a function of the applied RF power. During failure scenarios or maintenance interventions, the RF power is turned off resulting in no heat dissipation and decrease in the overall temperature of the components. The theoretica...

  7. Modeling users' activity on twitter networks: validation of Dunbar's number.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Gonçalves

    Full Text Available Microblogging and mobile devices appear to augment human social capabilities, which raises the question whether they remove cognitive or biological constraints on human communication. In this paper we analyze a dataset of Twitter conversations collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals and test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that the data are in agreement with Dunbar's result; users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships. Thus, the 'economy of attention' is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. We propose a simple model for users' behavior that includes finite priority queuing and time resources that reproduces the observed social behavior.

  8. Stratification of bubbly horizontal flows: modeling and experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bottin, M.

    2010-01-01

    Hot films and optical probes enabled the acquisition of measurements in bubbly flows at 5, 20 and 40 diameters from the inlet of the vein on the METERO facility which test section is a horizontal circular pipe of 100 mm inner diameter. The distribution of the different phases, the existence of coalescence and sedimentation mechanisms, the influence of the liquid and gas flow rates, the radial and axial evolutions are analyzed thanks to fast camera videos and numerous and varied experimental results (void fraction, bubbles sizes, interfacial area, mean and fluctuating velocities and turbulent kinetic energy of the liquid phase). Some models, based on the idea that the flow reaches an equilibrium state sufficiently far from the inlet of the pipe, were developed to simulate mean interfacial area and turbulent kinetic energy transports in bubbly flows. (author)

  9. Model determination and validation for reactive wetting processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yost, F.G.; O`Toole, E.J.; Sackinger, P.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, T.P. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering

    1998-01-01

    It is shown that dissolutive wetting initially yields a metastable equilibrium. A compact model for the kinetics of approach to this metastable state is described. The technique for constructing these kinetics stems from the early work of Onsager and begins with a relationship for the entropy production. From this, a coupled set of nonlinear, ordinary differential equations can be written directly. The equations are solved numerically for the wetted area and compared with experimental data. The model captures many of the subtle complexities of dissolutive wetting such as multiple metastable states. Sessile drop experiments involving a variety of Bi-Sn alloys on solid Bi substrates were performed. Substrates prepared from small and large-grained polycrystals and single crystals were used to measure equilibrium and metastable contact angles and estimate the surface tension and equilibrium contact angle of the solid-liquid interface. The substrates were also used to investigate the coupling of the dissolution and wetting processes and to investigate the effect of substrate grain size on wetting. It was determined that the equilibrium wetting geometry is independent of linear scale and that grain size has little influence on wetting or dissolution in the Bi-Sn system. To investigate the atomic behavior of liquids at interfaces during wetting, the authors simulated wetting in the Ag-Cu system using molecular dynamics with atomic potentials and observed both atomic dynamics and structural correlations of the liquid-solid interface. The authors found that spreading is prompted by interactions between the liquid and the substrate surface that cause the liquid layer in contact with the substrate to take on some of the symmetry of the substrate surface and result in the formation of a liquid monolayer that extends beyond the major part of the liquid droplet.

  10. Cost prediction following traumatic brain injury: model development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitz, Gershon; McKenzie, Dean; Attwood, David; Ponsford, Jennie L

    2016-02-01

    The ability to predict costs following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) would assist in planning treatment and support services by healthcare providers, insurers and other agencies. The objective of the current study was to develop predictive models of hospital, medical, paramedical, and long-term care (LTC) costs for the first 10 years following a TBI. The sample comprised 798 participants with TBI, the majority of whom were male and aged between 15 and 34 at time of injury. Costing information was obtained for hospital, medical, paramedical, and LTC costs up to 10 years postinjury. Demographic and injury-severity variables were collected at the time of admission to the rehabilitation hospital. Duration of PTA was the most important single predictor for each cost type. The final models predicted 44% of hospital costs, 26% of medical costs, 23% of paramedical costs, and 34% of LTC costs. Greater costs were incurred, depending on cost type, for individuals with longer PTA duration, obtaining a limb or chest injury, a lower GCS score, older age at injury, not being married or defacto prior to injury, living in metropolitan areas, and those reporting premorbid excessive or problem alcohol use. This study has provided a comprehensive analysis of factors predicting various types of costs following TBI, with the combination of injury-related and demographic variables predicting 23-44% of costs. PTA duration was the strongest predictor across all cost categories. These factors may be used for the planning and case management of individuals following TBI. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  11. Validation of a regional distribution model in environmental risk assessment of substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berding, V.

    2000-06-26

    The regional distribution model SimpleBox proposed in the TGD (Technical Guidance Document) and implemented in the EUSES software (European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances) was validated. The aim of this investigation was to determine the applicability and weaknesses of the model and to make proposals for improvement. The validation was performed using the scheme set up by SCHWARTZ (2000) of which the main aspects are the division into internal and external validation, i.e. into generic and task-specific properties of the model. These two validation parts contain the scrutiny of theory, sensitivity analyses, comparison of predicted environmental concentrations with measured ones by means of scenario analyses, uncertainty analyses and comparison with alternative models. Generally, the model employed is a reasonable compromise between complexity and simplification. Simpler models are applicable, too, but in many cases the results can deviate considerably from the measured values. For the sewage treatment model, it could be shown that its influence on the predicted concentration is very low and a much simpler model fulfils its purpose in a similar way. It is proposed to improve the model in several ways, e.g. by including the pH/pK-correction for dissociating substances or by alternative estimations functions for partition coefficients. But the main focus for future improvements should be on the amelioration of release estimations and substance characteristics as degradation rates and partition coefficients.

  12. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  13. Prediction and Validation of Heat Release Direct Injection Diesel Engine Using Multi-Zone Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anang Nugroho, Bagus; Sugiarto, Bambang; Prawoto; Shalahuddin, Lukman

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study is to develop simulation model which capable to predict heat release of diesel combustion accurately in efficient computation time. A multi-zone packet model has been applied to solve the combustion phenomena inside diesel cylinder. The model formulations are presented first and then the numerical results are validated on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine at various engine speed and timing injections. The model were found to be promising to fulfill the objective above.

  14. Helicopter noise in hover: Computational modelling and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopiev, V. F.; Zaytsev, M. Yu.; Vorontsov, V. I.; Karabasov, S. A.; Anikin, V. A.

    2017-11-01

    The aeroacoustic characteristics of a helicopter rotor are calculated by a new method, to assess its applicability in assessing rotor performance in hovering. Direct solution of the Euler equations in a noninertial coordinate system is used to calculate the near-field flow around the spinning rotor. The far-field noise field is calculated by the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) method using permeable control surfaces that include the blade. For a multiblade rotor, the signal obtained is duplicated and shifted in phase for each successive blade. By that means, the spectral characteristics of the far-field noise may be obtained. To determine the integral aerodynamic characteristics of the rotor, software is written to calculate the thrust and torque characteristics from the near-field flow solution. The results of numerical simulation are compared with experimental acoustic and aerodynamic data for a large-scale model of a helicopter main rotor in an open test facility. Two- and four-blade configurations of the rotor are considered, in different hover conditions. The proposed method satisfactorily predicts the aerodynamic characteristics of the blades in such conditions and gives good estimates for the first harmonics of the noise. That permits the practical use of the proposed method, not only for hovering but also for forward flight.

  15. Statistical Analysis Methods for Physics Models Verification and Validation

    CERN Document Server

    De Luca, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    The validation and verification process is a fundamental step for any software like Geant4 and GeantV, which aim to perform data simulation using physics models and Monte Carlo techniques. As experimental physicists, we have to face the problem to compare the results obtained using simulations with what the experiments actually observed. One way to solve the problem is to perform a consistency test. Within the Geant group, we developed a C++ compact library which will be added to the automated validation process on the Geant Validation Portal

  16. Pre-engineering Spaceflight Validation of Environmental Models and the 2005 HZETRN Simulation Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Dachev, Ts. P.; Tomov, B. T.; Walker, Steven A.; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William

    2006-01-01

    The HZETRN code has been identified by NASA for engineering design in the next phase of space exploration highlighting a return to the Moon in preparation for a Mars mission. In response, a new series of algorithms beginning with 2005 HZETRN, will be issued by correcting some prior limitations and improving control of propagated errors along with established code verification processes. Code validation processes will use new/improved low Earth orbit (LEO) environmental models with a recently improved International Space Station (ISS) shield model to validate computational models and procedures using measured data aboard ISS. These validated models will provide a basis for flight-testing the designs of future space vehicles and systems of the Constellation program in the LEO environment.

  17. Calibration and validation of a model describing complete autotrophic nitrogen removal in a granular SBR system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsgaard, Anna Katrine; Mutlu, Ayten Gizem; Gernaey, Krist

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A validated model describing the nitritation-anammox process in a granular sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system is an important tool for: a) design of future experiments and b) prediction of process performance during optimization, while applying process control, or during system scale......-up. RESULTS: A model was calibrated using a step-wise procedure customized for the specific needs of the system. The important steps in the procedure were initialization, steady-state and dynamic calibration, and validation. A fast and effective initialization approach was developed to approximate pseudo...... screening of the parameter space proposed by Sin et al. (2008) - to find the best fit of the model to dynamic data. Finally, the calibrated model was validated with an independent data set. CONCLUSION: The presented calibration procedure is the first customized procedure for this type of system...

  18. Wave Tank Testing and Model Validation of an Autonomous Wave Energy Converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bret Bosma

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A key component in bringing ocean wave energy converters from concept to commercialization is the building and testing of scaled prototypes to provide model validation. A one quarter scale prototype of an autonomous two body heaving point absorber was modeled, built, and tested for this work. Wave tank testing results are compared with two hydrodynamic and system models—implemented in both ANSYS AQWA and MATLAB/Simulink—and show model validation over certain regions of operation. This work will serve as a guide for future developers of wave energy converter devices, providing insight in taking their design from concept to prototype stage.

  19. Model Checking Verification and Validation at JPL and the NASA Fairmont IV and V Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Frank; Easterbrook, Steve; Callahan, Jack; Montgomery, Todd

    1999-01-01

    We show how a technology transfer effort was carried out. The successful use of model checking on a pilot JPL flight project demonstrates the usefulness and the efficacy of the approach. The pilot project was used to model a complex spacecraft controller. Software design and implementation validation were carried out successfully. To suggest future applications we also show how the implementation validation step can be automated. The effort was followed by the formal introduction of the modeling technique as a part of the JPL Quality Assurance process.

  20. Cross-validation of an employee safety climate model in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahari, Siti Fatimah; Clarke, Sharon

    2013-06-01

    Whilst substantial research has investigated the nature of safety climate, and its importance as a leading indicator of organisational safety, much of this research has been conducted with Western industrial samples. The current study focuses on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Malaysian manufacturing. The first-order factorial validity of Cheyne et al.'s (1998) [Cheyne, A., Cox, S., Oliver, A., Tomas, J.M., 1998. Modelling safety climate in the prediction of levels of safety activity. Work and Stress, 12(3), 255-271] model was tested, using confirmatory factor analysis, in a Malaysian sample. Results showed that the model fit indices were below accepted levels, indicating that the original Cheyne et al. (1998) safety climate model was not supported. An alternative three-factor model was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Although these findings are not consistent with previously reported cross-validation studies, we argue that previous studies have focused on validation across Western samples, and that the current study demonstrates the need to take account of cultural factors in the development of safety climate models intended for use in non-Western contexts. The results have important implications for the transferability of existing safety climate models across cultures (for example, in global organisations) and highlight the need for future research to examine cross-cultural issues in relation to safety climate. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

    2012-01-01

    We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

  2. Validation of periodontitis screening model using sociodemographic, systemic, and molecular information in a Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Duck; Sukhbaatar, Munkhzaya; Shin, Myungseop; Ahn, Yoo-Been; Yoo, Wook-Sung

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to evaluate and validate a periodontitis screening model that includes sociodemographic, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and molecular information, including gingival crevicular fluid (GCF), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and blood cytokines. The authors selected 506 participants from the Shiwha-Banwol cohort: 322 participants from the 2005 cohort for deriving the screening model and 184 participants from the 2007 cohort for its validation. Periodontitis was assessed by dentists using the community periodontal index. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α in blood and MMP-8, -9, and -13 in GCF were assayed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. MetS was assessed by physicians using physical examination and blood laboratory data. Information about age, sex, income, smoking, and drinking was obtained by interview. Logistic regression analysis was applied to finalize the best-fitting model and validate the model using sensitivity, specificity, and c-statistics. The derived model for periodontitis screening had a sensitivity of 0.73, specificity of 0.85, and c-statistic of 0.86 (P validated model were 0.64, 0.91, and 0.83 (P <0.001), respectively. The model that included age, sex, income, smoking, drinking, and blood and GCF biomarkers could be useful in screening for periodontitis. A future prospective study is indicated for evaluating this model's ability to predict the occurrence of periodontitis.

  3. Model-based wear measurements in total knee arthroplasty : development and validation of novel radiographic techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJsseldijk, van E.A.

    2016-01-01

    The primary aim of this work was to develop novel model-based mJSW measurement methods using a 3D reconstruction and compare the accuracy and precision of these methods to conventional mJSW measurement. This thesis contributed to the development, validation and clinical application of model-based

  4. Modeling validation to structural flaws in the foundations of oil tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couto, Larissa Goncalves; Leite, Sandro Passos

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling of an experiment used to study the application of backscattered neutrons in the identification of structural flaws in the foundations of oil tanks. This modeling was a preliminary validation procedure of the method of calculation, performed with the radiation transport code MCNP, to study the application of backscattered neutrons as inspection tool. (author)

  5. Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Palazón-Bru

    Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.

  6. Internal validation of risk models in clustered data: a comparison of bootstrap schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwmeester, W.; Moons, K.G.M.; Kappen, T.H.; van Klei, W.A.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Eijkemans, M.J.C.; Vergouwe, Y.

    2013-01-01

    Internal validity of a risk model can be studied efficiently with bootstrapping to assess possible optimism in model performance. Assumptions of the regular bootstrap are violated when the development data are clustered. We compared alternative resampling schemes in clustered data for the estimation

  7. Use of Maple Seeding Canopy Reflectance Dataset for Validation of SART/LEAFMOD Radiative Transfer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Barbara J.; Peterson, David L.

    1999-01-01

    This project was a collaborative effort by researchers at ARC, OSU and the University of Arizona. The goal was to use a dataset obtained from a previous study to "empirically validate a new canopy radiative-transfer model (SART) which incorporates a recently-developed leaf-level model (LEAFMOD)". The document includes a short research summary.

  8. Ehrenfest's theorem and the validity of the two-step model for strong-field ionization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shvetsov-Shilovskiy, Nikolay; Dimitrovski, Darko; Madsen, Lars Bojer

    By comparison with the solution of the time-dependent Schrodinger equation we explore the validity of the two-step semiclassical model for strong-field ionization in elliptically polarized laser pulses. We find that the discrepancy between the two-step model and the quantum theory correlates...

  9. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Elizabeth B. Haley; Norman S. Levine; Timothy J. Callahan; Artur Radecki-Pawlik; Manoj K. Jha

    2008-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT...

  10. Explicit validation of a surface shortwave radiation balance model over snow-covered complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, N.; Löwe, H.; Mayer, B.; Lehning, M.

    2010-09-01

    A model that computes the surface radiation balance for all sky conditions in complex terrain is presented. The spatial distribution of direct and diffuse sky radiation is determined from observations of incident global radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at a single measurement location. Incident radiation under cloudless sky is spatially derived from a parameterization of the atmospheric transmittance. Direct and diffuse sky radiation for all sky conditions are obtained by decomposing the measured global radiation value. Spatial incident radiation values under all atmospheric conditions are computed by adjusting the spatial radiation values obtained from the parametric model with the radiation components obtained from the decomposition model at the measurement site. Topographic influences such as shading are accounted for. The radiosity approach is used to compute anisotropic terrain reflected radiation. Validations of the shortwave radiation balance model are presented in detail for a day with cloudless sky. For a day with overcast sky a first validation is presented. Validation of a section of the horizon line as well as of individual radiation components is performed with high-quality measurements. A new measurement setup was designed to determine terrain reflected radiation. There is good agreement between the measurements and the modeled terrain reflected radiation values as well as with incident radiation values. A comparison of the model with a fully three-dimensional radiative transfer Monte Carlo model is presented. That validation reveals a good agreement between modeled radiation values.

  11. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...

  12. Value-Added Models for Teacher Preparation Programs: Validity and Reliability Threats, and a Manageable Alternative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Michael P.; Heiser, Lawrence A.; McCormick, Jazarae K.; Forgan, James

    2016-01-01

    High-stakes standardized student assessments are increasingly used in value-added evaluation models to connect teacher performance to P-12 student learning. These assessments are also being used to evaluate teacher preparation programs, despite validity and reliability threats. A more rational model linking student performance to candidates who…

  13. Validation of infrared thermography in serotonin-induced itch model in rats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dagnæs-Hansen, Frederik; Jasemian, Yousef; Gazerani, Parisa

    The number of scratching bouts is generally used as a standard method in animal models of itch. The aim of the present study was to validate the application of infrared thermography (IR-Th) in a serotonin-induced itch model in rats. Adult Sprague-Dawley male rats (n = 24) were used in 3 consecuti...

  14. Modeling and Experimental Validation of an Islanded No-Inertia Microgrid Site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonfiglio, Andrea; Delfino, Federico; Labella, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a simple but effective model for no-inertia microgrids suitable to represent the instantaneous values of its meaningful electric variables, becoming a useful platform to test innovative control logics and energy management systems. The proposed model is validated against a more...

  15. Repeated holdout Cross-Validation of Model to Estimate Risk of Lyme Disease by Landscape Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We previously modeled Lyme disease (LD) risk at the landscape scale; here we evaluate the model's overall goodness-of-fit using holdout validation. Landscapes were characterized within road-bounded analysis units (AU). Observed LD cases (obsLD) were ascertained per AU. Data were ...

  16. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Modeling System Validation. Report 4: Intermediate Submission No. 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Hurricane Isabel, Hurricane Ernesto, and Extratropical Storm Ida. Model skill was accessed by quantitative comparison of model output to wind, wave...25. Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida maximum wind speeds. ......................................................... 41  Figure 26. Extratropical Storm ...Nor’Ida wind validation stations. ........................................................ 42  Figure 27. Comparisons of Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida wind

  17. Modeling of surge in free-spool centrifugal compressors : experimental validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gravdahl, J.T.; Willems, F.P.T.; Jager, de A.G.; Egeland, O.

    2004-01-01

    The derivation of a compressor characteristic, and the experimental validation of a dynamic model for a variable speed centrifugal compressor using this characteristic, are presented. The dynamic compressor model of Fink et al. is used, and a variable speed compressor characteristic is derived by

  18. Validation of models that predict Cesarean section after induction of labor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, C. J. M.; Oudenaarden, A.; Hermus, M. A. A.; Porath, M. M.; Oei, S. G.; Mol, B. W. J.

    2009-01-01

    Objective Models for the prediction of Cesarean delivery after induction of labor can be used to improve clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to validate two existing models, published by Peregrine et al. and Rane et al., for the prediction of Cesarean section after induction of

  19. Experimental validation of a thermodynamic boiler model under steady state and dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlon, Elisa; Verma, Vijay Kumar; Schwarz, Markus; Golicza, Laszlo; Prada, Alessandro; Baratieri, Marco; Haslinger, Walter; Schmidl, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Laboratory tests on two commercially available pellet boilers. • Steady state and a dynamic load cycle tests. • Pellet boiler model calibration based on data registered in stationary operation. • Boiler model validation with reference to both stationary and dynamic operation. • Validated model suitable for coupled simulation of building and heating system. - Abstract: Nowadays dynamic building simulation is an essential tool for the design of heating systems for residential buildings. The simulation of buildings heated by biomass systems, first of all needs detailed boiler models, capable of simulating the boiler both as a stand-alone appliance and as a system component. This paper presents the calibration and validation of a boiler model by means of laboratory tests. The chosen model, i.e. TRNSYS “Type 869”, has been validated for two commercially available pellet boilers of 6 and 12 kW nominal capacities. Two test methods have been applied: the first is a steady state test at nominal load and the second is a load cycle test including stationary operation at different loads as well as transient operation. The load cycle test is representative of the boiler operation in the field and characterises the boiler’s stationary and dynamic behaviour. The model had been calibrated based on laboratory data registered during stationary operation at different loads and afterwards it was validated by simulating both the stationary and the dynamic tests. Selected parameters for the validation were the heat transfer rates to water and the water temperature profiles inside the boiler and at the boiler outlet. Modelling results showed better agreement with experimental data during stationary operation rather than during dynamic operation. Heat transfer rates to water were predicted with a maximum deviation of 10% during the stationary operation, and a maximum deviation of 30% during the dynamic load cycle. However, for both operational regimes the

  20. Validation of mathematical models to describe fluid dynamics of a cold riser by gamma ray attenuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melo, Ana Cristina Bezerra Azedo de

    2004-12-01

    The fluid dynamic behavior of a riser in a cold type FCC model was investigated by means of catalyst concentration distribution measured with gamma attenuation and simulated with a mathematical model. In the riser of the cold model, MEF, 0,032 m in diameter, 2,30 m in length the fluidized bed, whose components are air and FCC catalyst, circulates. The MEF is operated by automatic control and instruments for measuring fluid dynamic variables. An axial catalyst concentration distribution was measured using an Am-241 gamma source and a NaI detector coupled to a multichannel provided with a software for data acquisition and evaluation. The MEF was adapted for a fluid dynamic model validation which describes the flow in the riser, for example, by introducing an injector for controlling the solid flow in circulation. Mathematical models were selected from literature, analyzed and tested to simulate the fluid dynamic of the riser. A methodology for validating fluid dynamic models was studied and implemented. The stages of the work were developed according to the validation methodology, such as data planning experiments, study of the equations which describe the fluidodynamic, computational solvers application and comparison with experimental data. Operational sequences were carried out keeping the MEF conditions for measuring catalyst concentration and simultaneously measuring the fluid dynamic variables, velocity of the components and pressure drop in the riser. Following this, simulated and experimental values were compared and statistical data treatment done, aiming at the required precision to validate the fluid dynamic model. The comparison tests between experimental and simulated data were carried out under validation criteria. The fluid dynamic behavior of the riser was analyzed and the results and the agreement with literature were discussed. The adopt model was validated under the MEF operational conditions, for a 3 to 6 m/s gas velocity in the riser and a slip

  1. Construct validity of the ovine model in endoscopic sinus surgery training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Zaid; Taghi, Ali; Sethukumar, Priya; Tolley, Neil S

    2015-03-01

    To demonstrate construct validity of the ovine model as a tool for training in endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Prospective, cross-sectional evaluation study. Over 18 consecutive months, trainees and experts were evaluated in their ability to perform a range of tasks (based on previous face validation and descriptive studies conducted by the same group) relating to ESS on the sheep-head model. Anonymized randomized video recordings of the above were assessed by two independent and blinded assessors. A validated assessment tool utilizing a five-point Likert scale was employed. Construct validity was calculated by comparing scores across training levels and experts using mean and interquartile range of global and task-specific scores. Subgroup analysis of the intermediate group ascertained previous experience. Nonparametric descriptive statistics were used, and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 21 (IBM, Armonk, NY). Reliability of the assessment tool was confirmed. The model discriminated well between different levels of expertise in global and task-specific scores. A positive correlation was noted between year in training and both global and task-specific scores (P variable, and the number of ESS procedures performed under supervision had the highest impact on performance. This study describes an alternative model for ESS training and assessment. It is also the first to demonstrate construct validity of the sheep-head model for ESS training. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  2. Experimental validation of TASS/SMR-S critical flow model for the integral reactor SMART

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Si Won; Ra, In Sik; Kim, Kun Yeup [ACT Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Young Jong [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    An advanced integral PWR, SMART (System- Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) is being developed in KAERI. It has a compact size and a relatively small power rating (330MWt) compared to a conventional reactor. Because new concepts are applied to SMART, an experimental and analytical validation is necessary for the safety evaluation of SMART. The analytical safety validation is being accomplished by a safety analysis code for an integral reactor, TASS/SMR-S developed by KAERI. TASS/SMR-S uses a lumped parameter one dimensional node and path modeling for the thermal hydraulic calculation and it uses point kinetics for the reactor power calculation. It has models for a general usage such as a core heat transfer model, a wall heat structure model, a critical flow model, component models, and it also has many SMART specific models such as an once through helical coiled steam generator model, and a condensate heat transfer model. To ensure that the TASS/SMR-S code has the calculation capability for the safety evaluation of SMART, the code should be validated for the specific models with the separate effect test experimental results. In this study, TASS/SMR-S critical flow model is evaluated as compared with SMD (Super Moby Dick) experiment

  3. Validation of the CAR II model for Flanders, Belgium; Validatie van het model CAR II voor Vlaanderen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marien, S.; Celis, D.; Roekens, E.

    2013-04-15

    In Flanders, Belgium, the CAR model (Calculation of Air pollution from Road traffic) for air quality along urban roads was recently extensively validated for NO2. More clarity has been gained about the quality and accuracy of this model [Dutch] In Vlaanderen is het CAR-model (Calculation of Air pollution from Road traffic) voor de luchtkwaliteit langs binnenstedelijke wegen onlangs uitvoerig gevalideerd voor NO2. Er is nu meer duidelijkheid over de kwaliteit en nauwkeurigheid van dit model.

  4. Assessment model validity document - HYDRASTAR. A stochastic continuum program for groundwater flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gylling, B. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Eriksson, Lars [Equa Simulation AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2001-12-01

    The prevailing document addresses validation of the stochastic continuum model HYDRASTAR designed for Monte Carlo simulations of groundwater flow in fractured rocks. Here, validation is defined as a process to demonstrate that a model concept is fit for its purpose. Preferably, the validation is carried out by comparison of model predictions with independent field observations and experimental measurements. In addition, other sources can also be used to confirm that the model concept gives acceptable results. One method is to compare results with the ones achieved using other model concepts for the same set of input data. Another method is to compare model results with analytical solutions. The model concept HYDRASTAR has been used in several studies including performance assessments of hypothetical repositories for spent nuclear fuel. In the performance assessments, the main tasks for HYDRASTAR have been to calculate groundwater travel time distributions, repository flux distributions, path lines and their exit locations. The results have then been used by other model concepts to calculate the near field release and far field transport. The aim and framework for the validation process includes describing the applicability of the model concept for its purpose in order to build confidence in the concept. Preferably, this is made by comparisons of simulation results with the corresponding field experiments or field measurements. Here, two comparisons with experimental results are reported. In both cases the agreement was reasonably fair. In the broader and more general context of the validation process, HYDRASTAR results have been compared with other models and analytical solutions. Commonly, the approximation calculations agree well with the medians of model ensemble results. Additional indications that HYDRASTAR is suitable for its purpose were obtained from the comparisons with results from other model concepts. Several verification studies have been made for

  5. Conceptualization of Approaches and Thought Processes Emerging in Validating of Model in Mathematical Modeling in Technology Aided Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidiroglu, Çaglar Naci; Bukova Güzel, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to conceptualize the approaches displayed for validation of model and thought processes provided in mathematical modeling process performed in technology-aided learning environment. The participants of this grounded theory study were nineteen secondary school mathematics student teachers. The data gathered from the…

  6. Predictive modeling of infrared radiative heating in tomato dry-peeling process: Part II. Model validation and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A predictive mathematical model was developed to simulate heat transfer in a tomato undergoing double sided infrared (IR) heating in a dry-peeling process. The aims of this study were to validate the developed model using experimental data and to investigate different engineering parameters that mos...

  7. Structural refinement and prediction of potential CCR2 antagonists through validated multi-QSAR modeling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Sk Abdul; Adhikari, Nilanjan; Baidya, Sandip Kumar; Gayen, Shovanlal; Jha, Tarun

    2018-01-03

    Chemokines trigger numerous inflammatory responses and modulate the immune system. The interaction between monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2) may be the cause of atherosclerosis, obesity, and insulin resistance. However, CCR2 is also implicated in other inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, asthma, and neuropathic pain. Therefore, there is a paramount importance of designing potent and selective CCR2 antagonists despite a number of drug candidates failed in clinical trials. In this article, 83 CCR2 antagonists by Jhonson and Jhonson Pharmaceuticals have been considered for robust validated multi-QSAR modeling studies to get an idea about the structural and pharmacophoric requirements for designing more potent CCR2 antagonists. All these QSAR models were validated and statistically reliable. Observations resulted from different modeling studies correlated and validated results of other ones. Finally, depending on these QSAR observations, some new molecules were proposed that may exhibit higher activity against CCR2.

  8. Animal models of binge drinking, current challenges to improve face validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanblanc, Jérôme; Rolland, Benjamin; Gierski, Fabien; Martinetti, Margaret P; Naassila, Mickael

    2018-05-05

    Binge drinking (BD), i.e., consuming a large amount of alcohol in a short period of time, is an increasing public health issue. Though no clear definition has been adopted worldwide the speed of drinking seems to be a keystone of this behavior. Developing relevant animal models of BD is a priority for gaining a better characterization of the neurobiological and psychobiological mechanisms underlying this dangerous and harmful behavior. Until recently, preclinical research on BD has been conducted mostly using forced administration of alcohol, but more recent studies used scheduled access to alcohol, to model more voluntary excessive intakes, and to achieve signs of intoxications that mimic the human behavior. The main challenges for future research are discussed regarding the need of good face validity, construct validity and predictive validity of animal models of BD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Systematic validation of non-equilibrium thermochemical models using Bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Miki, Kenji

    2015-10-01

    © 2015 Elsevier Inc. The validation process proposed by Babuška et al. [1] is applied to thermochemical models describing post-shock flow conditions. In this validation approach, experimental data is involved only in the calibration of the models, and the decision process is based on quantities of interest (QoIs) predicted on scenarios that are not necessarily amenable experimentally. Moreover, uncertainties present in the experimental data, as well as those resulting from an incomplete physical model description, are propagated to the QoIs. We investigate four commonly used thermochemical models: a one-temperature model (which assumes thermal equilibrium among all inner modes), and two-temperature models developed by Macheret et al. [2], Marrone and Treanor [3], and Park [4]. Up to 16 uncertain parameters are estimated using Bayesian updating based on the latest absolute volumetric radiance data collected at the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) installed inside the NASA Ames Research Center. Following the solution of the inverse problems, the forward problems are solved in order to predict the radiative heat flux, QoI, and examine the validity of these models. Our results show that all four models are invalid, but for different reasons: the one-temperature model simply fails to reproduce the data while the two-temperature models exhibit unacceptably large uncertainties in the QoI predictions.

  10. Development and validation of a viscoelastic and nonlinear liver model for needle insertion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Yo [Waseda University, Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Shinjuku, Tokyo (Japan); Onishi, Akinori; Hoshi, Takeharu; Kawamura, Kazuya [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan); Hashizume, Makoto [Kyushu University Hospital, Center for the Integration of Advanced Medicine and Innovative Technology, Fukuoka (Japan); Fujie, Masakatsu G. [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan)

    2009-01-15

    The objective of our work is to develop and validate a viscoelastic and nonlinear physical liver model for organ model-based needle insertion, in which the deformation of an organ is estimated and predicted, and the needle path is determined with organ deformation taken into consideration. First, an overview is given of the development of the physical liver model. The material properties of the liver considering viscoelasticity and nonlinearity are modeled based on the measured data collected from a pig's liver. The method to develop the liver model using FEM is also shown. Second, the experimental method to validate the model is explained. Both in vitro and in vivo experiments that made use of a pig's liver were conducted for comparison with the simulation using the model. Results of the in vitro experiment showed that the model reproduces nonlinear and viscoelastic response of displacement at an internally located point with high accuracy. For a force up to 0.45 N, the maximum error is below 1 mm. Results of the in vivo experiment showed that the model reproduces the nonlinear increase of load upon the needle during insertion. Based on these results, the liver model developed and validated in this work reproduces the physical response of a liver in both in vitro and in vivo situations. (orig.)

  11. Consistency, Verification, and Validation of Turbulence Models for Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2009-01-01

    In current practice, it is often difficult to draw firm conclusions about turbulence model accuracy when performing multi-code CFD studies ostensibly using the same model because of inconsistencies in model formulation or implementation in different codes. This paper describes an effort to improve the consistency, verification, and validation of turbulence models within the aerospace community through a website database of verification and validation cases. Some of the variants of two widely-used turbulence models are described, and two independent computer codes (one structured and one unstructured) are used in conjunction with two specific versions of these models to demonstrate consistency with grid refinement for several representative problems. Naming conventions, implementation consistency, and thorough grid resolution studies are key factors necessary for success.

  12. Construct Validity of Fresh Frozen Human Cadaver as a Training Model in Minimal Access Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macafee, David; Pranesh, Nagarajan; Horgan, Alan F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The construct validity of fresh human cadaver as a training tool has not been established previously. The aims of this study were to investigate the construct validity of fresh frozen human cadaver as a method of training in minimal access surgery and determine if novices can be rapidly trained using this model to a safe level of performance. Methods: Junior surgical trainees, novices (cadavers. Expert laparoscopists (>100 laparoscopic procedures) performed 3 repetitions of identical tasks. Performances were scored using a validated, objective Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills scale. Scores for 3 consecutive repetitions were compared between experts and novices to determine construct validity. Furthermore, to determine if the novices reached a safe level, a trimmed mean of the experts score was used to define a benchmark. Mann-Whitney U test was used for construct validity analysis and 1-sample t test to compare performances of the novice group with the benchmark safe score. Results: Ten novices and 2 experts were recruited. Four out of 5 tasks (nondominant to dominant hand transfer; simulated appendicectomy; intracorporeal and extracorporeal knot tying) showed construct validity. Novices’ scores became comparable to benchmark scores between the eighth and tenth repetition. Conclusion: Minimal access surgical training using fresh frozen human cadavers appears to have construct validity. The laparoscopic skills of novices can be accelerated through to a safe level within 8 to 10 repetitions. PMID:23318058

  13. Verification, Validation and Credibility Assessment of a Computational Model of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, C. R.; Humphreys, B. T.; Mulugeta, L.

    2014-01-01

    The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) is the resistive exercise device used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to mitigate bone loss and muscle atrophy due to extended exposure to microgravity (micro g). The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has developed a multi-body dynamics model of biomechanics models for use in spaceflight exercise physiology research and operations. In an effort to advance model maturity and credibility of the ARED model, the DAP performed verification, validation and credibility (VV and C) assessment of the analyses of the model in accordance to NASA-STD-7009 'Standards for Models and Simulations'.

  14. CFD modelling of hydrogen stratification in enclosures: Model validation and application to PAR performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoyes, J.R., E-mail: james.hoyes@hsl.gsi.gov.uk; Ivings, M.J.

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • The ability of CFD to predict hydrogen stratification phenomena is investigated. • Contrary to expectation, simulations on tetrahedral meshes under-predict mixing. • Simulations on structured meshes give good agreement with experimental data. • CFD model used to investigate the effects of stratification on PAR performance. • Results show stratification can have a significant effect on PAR performance. - Abstract: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models are maturing into useful tools for supporting safety analyses. This paper investigates the capabilities of CFD models for predicting hydrogen stratification in a containment vessel using data from the NEA/OECD SETH2 MISTRA experiments. Further simulations are then carried out to illustrate the qualitative effects of hydrogen stratification on the performance of Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner (PAR) units. The MISTRA experiments have well-defined initial and boundary conditions which makes them well suited for use in a validation study. Results are presented for the sensitivity to mesh resolution and mesh type. Whilst the predictions are shown to be largely insensitive to the mesh resolution they are surprisingly sensitive to the mesh type. In particular, tetrahedral meshes are found to induce small unphysical convection currents that result in molecular diffusion and turbulent mixing being under-predicted. This behaviour is not unique to the CFD model used here (ANSYS CFX) and furthermore, it may affect simulations run on other non-aligned meshes (meshes that are not aligned perpendicular to gravity), including non-aligned structured meshes. Following existing best practice guidelines can help to identify potential unphysical predictions, but as an additional precaution consideration should be given to using gravity-aligned meshes for modelling stratified flows. CFD simulations of hydrogen recombination in the Becker Technologies THAI facility are presented with high and low PAR positions

  15. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  16. Developing a model for hospital inherent safety assessment: Conceptualization and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yari, Saeed; Akbari, Hesam; Gholami Fesharaki, Mohammad; Khosravizadeh, Omid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Barsam, Yalda; Akbari, Hamed

    2018-01-01

    Paying attention to the safety of hospitals, as the most crucial institute for providing medical and health services wherein a bundle of facilities, equipment, and human resource exist, is of significant importance. The present research aims at developing a model for assessing hospitals' safety based on principles of inherent safety design. Face validity (30 experts), content validity (20 experts), construct validity (268 examples), convergent validity, and divergent validity have been employed to validate the prepared questionnaire; and the items analysis, the Cronbach's alpha test, ICC test (to measure reliability of the test), composite reliability coefficient have been used to measure primary reliability. The relationship between variables and factors has been confirmed at 0.05 significance level by conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equations modeling (SEM) technique with the use of Smart-PLS. R-square and load factors values, which were higher than 0.67 and 0.300 respectively, indicated the strong fit. Moderation (0.970), simplification (0.959), substitution (0.943), and minimization (0.5008) have had the most weights in determining the inherent safety of hospital respectively. Moderation, simplification, and substitution, among the other dimensions, have more weight on the inherent safety, while minimization has the less weight, which could be due do its definition as to minimize the risk.

  17. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2017-07-14

    Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) on the estimated model discrimination (c-index) and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots) in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and should not be ignored. When treatment use is random, treated

  18. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romin Pajouheshnia

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and

  19. External Validation of Prediction Models for Pneumonia in Primary Care Patients with Lower Respiratory Tract Infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schierenberg, Alwin; Minnaard, Margaretha C; Hopstaken, Rogier M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains difficult to diagnose in primary care. Prediction models based on signs and symptoms (S&S) serve to minimize the diagnostic uncertainty. External validation of these models is essential before implementation into routine practice. In this study all published S&S mode...... discriminative accuracy coupled with reasonable to good calibration across the IPD of different study populations. This model is therefore the main candidate for primary care use....

  20. Validation of Pressure Drop Models for PHWR-type Fuel Elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brasnarof Daniel; Daverio, H.

    2003-01-01

    In the present work an one-dimensional pressure drop analytical model and the COBRA code, are validated with experimental data of CANDU and Atucha fuel bundles in low and high pressure experimental test loops.Models have very good agreement with the experimental data, having less than 5 % of discrepancy. The analytical model results were compared with COBRA code results, having small difference between them in a wide range of pressure, temperature and mass flow