Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan R Karr

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

Reconstruction of signals with unknown spectra in information field theory with parameter uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ensslin, Torsten A.; Frommert, Mona

2011-01-01

The optimal reconstruction of cosmic metric perturbations and other signals requires knowledge of their power spectra and other parameters. If these are not known a priori, they have to be measured simultaneously from the same data used for the signal reconstruction. We formulate the general problem of signal inference in the presence of unknown parameters within the framework of information field theory. To solve this, we develop a generic parameter-uncertainty renormalized estimation (PURE) technique. As a concrete application, we address the problem of reconstructing Gaussian signals with unknown power-spectrum with five different approaches: (i) separate maximum-a-posteriori power-spectrum measurement and subsequent reconstruction, (ii) maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction with marginalized power-spectrum, (iii) maximizing the joint posterior of signal and spectrum, (iv) guessing the spectrum from the variance in the Wiener-filter map, and (v) renormalization flow analysis of the field-theoretical problem providing the PURE filter. In all cases, the reconstruction can be described or approximated as Wiener-filter operations with assumed signal spectra derived from the data according to the same recipe, but with differing coefficients. All of these filters, except the renormalized one, exhibit a perception threshold in case of a Jeffreys prior for the unknown spectrum. Data modes with variance below this threshold do not affect the signal reconstruction at all. Filter (iv) seems to be similar to the so-called Karhune-Loeve and Feldman-Kaiser-Peacock estimators for galaxy power spectra used in cosmology, which therefore should also exhibit a marginal perception threshold if correctly implemented. We present statistical performance tests and show that the PURE filter is superior to the others, especially if the post-Wiener-filter corrections are included or in case an additional scale-independent spectral smoothness prior can be adopted.

Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

2015-01-01

Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

2013-01-01

Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

Chaos anti-synchronization of two non-identical chaotic systems with known or fully unknown parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Sawalha, Ayman

2009-01-01

This work is devoted to investigating the anti-synchronization between two novel different chaotic systems. Two different anti-synchronization methods are proposed. Active control is applied when system parameters are known and adaptive control is employed when system parameters are uncertain or unknown. Controllers and update laws of parameters are designed based on Lyapunov stability theory. In both cases, sufficient conditions for the anti-synchronization are obtained analytically. Finally, a numerical simulations is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos anti-synchronization schemes.

Synchronization of coupled different chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo neurons with unknown parameters under communication-direction-dependent coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, Muhammad; Rehan, Muhammad; Khaliq, Abdul; Saeed-ur-Rehman; Hong, Keum-Shik

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the chaotic behavior and synchronization of two different coupled chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN) neurons with unknown parameters under external electrical stimulation (EES). The coupled FHN neurons of different parameters admit unidirectional and bidirectional gap junctions in the medium between them. Dynamical properties, such as the increase in synchronization error as a consequence of the deviation of neuronal parameters for unlike neurons, the effect of difference in coupling strengths caused by the unidirectional gap junctions, and the impact of large time-delay due to separation of neurons, are studied in exploring the behavior of the coupled system. A novel integral-based nonlinear adaptive control scheme, to cope with the infeasibility of the recovery variable, for synchronization of two coupled delayed chaotic FHN neurons of different and unknown parameters under uncertain EES is derived. Further, to guarantee robust synchronization of different neurons against disturbances, the proposed control methodology is modified to achieve the uniformly ultimately bounded synchronization. The parametric estimation errors can be reduced by selecting suitable control parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is illustrated via numerical simulations.

On synchronisation of a class of complex chaotic systems with complex unknown parameters via integral sliding mode control

Science.gov (United States)

Tirandaz, Hamed; Karami-Mollaee, Ali

2018-06-01

Chaotic systems demonstrate complex behaviour in their state variables and their parameters, which generate some challenges and consequences. This paper presents a new synchronisation scheme based on integral sliding mode control (ISMC) method on a class of complex chaotic systems with complex unknown parameters. Synchronisation between corresponding states of a class of complex chaotic systems and also convergence of the errors of the system parameters to zero point are studied. The designed feedback control vector and complex unknown parameter vector are analytically achieved based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed methodology is verified by synchronisation of the Chen complex system and the Lorenz complex systems as the leader and the follower chaotic systems, respectively. In conclusion, some numerical simulations related to the synchronisation methodology is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical discussions.

Large-scale parameter extraction in electrocardiology models through Born approximation

KAUST Repository

He, Yuan

2012-12-04

One of the main objectives in electrocardiology is to extract physical properties of cardiac tissues from measured information on electrical activity of the heart. Mathematically, this is an inverse problem for reconstructing coefficients in electrocardiology models from partial knowledge of the solutions of the models. In this work, we consider such parameter extraction problems for two well-studied electrocardiology models: the bidomain model and the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. We propose a systematic reconstruction method based on the Born approximation of the original nonlinear inverse problem. We describe a two-step procedure that allows us to reconstruct not only perturbations of the unknowns, but also the backgrounds around which the linearization is performed. We show some numerical simulations under various conditions to demonstrate the performance of our method. We also introduce a parameterization strategy using eigenfunctions of the Laplacian operator to reduce the number of unknowns in the parameter extraction problem. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

KAUST Repository

Xun, Xiaolei

2013-09-01

Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

Synchronization of Coupled Different Chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo Neurons with Unknown Parameters under Communication-Direction-Dependent Coupling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Iqbal

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the chaotic behavior and synchronization of two different coupled chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN neurons with unknown parameters under external electrical stimulation (EES. The coupled FHN neurons of different parameters admit unidirectional and bidirectional gap junctions in the medium between them. Dynamical properties, such as the increase in synchronization error as a consequence of the deviation of neuronal parameters for unlike neurons, the effect of difference in coupling strengths caused by the unidirectional gap junctions, and the impact of large time-delay due to separation of neurons, are studied in exploring the behavior of the coupled system. A novel integral-based nonlinear adaptive control scheme, to cope with the infeasibility of the recovery variable, for synchronization of two coupled delayed chaotic FHN neurons of different and unknown parameters under uncertain EES is derived. Further, to guarantee robust synchronization of different neurons against disturbances, the proposed control methodology is modified to achieve the uniformly ultimately bounded synchronization. The parametric estimation errors can be reduced by selecting suitable control parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is illustrated via numerical simulations.

A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

2009-01-01

Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

Marginalized adaptive particle filtering for nonlinear models with unknown time-varying noise parameters

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ökzan, E.; Šmídl, Václav; Saha, S.; Lundquist, C.; Gustafsson, F.

2013-01-01

Roč. 49, č. 6 (2013), s. 1566-1575 ISSN 0005-1098 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP102/11/0437 Keywords : Unknown Noise Statistics * Adaptive Filtering * Marginalized Particle Filter * Bayesian Conjugate prior Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.132, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/smidl-0393047.pdf

Learning Unknown Structure in CRFs via Adaptive Gradient Projection Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Xue

2016-08-01

Full Text Available We study the problem of fitting probabilistic graphical models to the given data when the structure is not known. More specifically, we focus on learning unknown structure in conditional random fields, especially learning both the structure and parameters of a conditional random field model simultaneously. To do this, we first formulate the learning problem as a convex minimization problem by adding an l_2-regularization to the node parameters and a group l_1-regularization to the edge parameters, and then a gradient-based projection method is proposed to solve it which combines an adaptive stepsize selection strategy with a nonmonotone line search. Extensive simulation experiments are presented to show the performance of our approach in solving unknown structure learning problems.

Adaptive Synchronization for Two Different Stochastic Chaotic Systems with Unknown Parameters via a Sliding Mode Controller

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Zengyun Wang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of synchronization for two different stochastic chaotic systems with unknown parameters and uncertain terms. The main work of this paper consists of the following aspects. Firstly, based on the Lyapunov theory in stochastic differential equations and the theory of sliding mode control, we propose a simple sliding surface and discuss the occurrence of the sliding motion. Secondly, we design an adaptive sliding mode controller to realize the asymptotical synchronization in mean squares. Thirdly, we design an adaptive sliding mode controller to realize the almost surely synchronization. Finally, the designed adaptive sliding mode controllers are used to achieve synchronization between two pairs of different stochastic chaos systems (Lorenz-Chen and Chen-Lu in the presence of the uncertainties and unknown parameters. Numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed robust adaptive sliding mode controller.

M-MRAC Backstepping for Systems with Unknown Virtual Control Coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2015-01-01

The paper presents an over-parametrization free certainty equivalence state feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties and unknown virtual control coefficients. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Analysis of Milk Production Traits in Early Lactation Using a Reaction Norm Model with Unknown Covariates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahdi Shariati, Mohammad; Su, Guosheng; Madsen, Per

2007-01-01

The reaction norm model is becoming a popular approach to study genotype x environment interaction (GxE), especially when there is a continuum of environmental effects. These effects are typically unknown, and an approximation that is used in the literature is to replace them by the phenotypic...... means of each environment. It has been shown that this method results in poor inferences and that a more satisfactory alternative is to infer environmental effects jointly with the other parameters of the model. Such a reaction norm model with unknown covariates and heterogeneous residual variances...... across herds was fitted to milk, protein, and fat yield of first-lactation Danish Holstein cows to investigate the presence of GxE. Data included 188,502 first test-day records from 299 herds and 3,775 herd-years in a time period ranging from 1991 to 2003. Variance components and breeding values were...

MoCha: Molecular Characterization of Unknown Pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Lobo, Daniel; Hammelman, Jennifer; Levin, Michael

2016-04-01

Automated methods for the reverse-engineering of complex regulatory networks are paving the way for the inference of mechanistic comprehensive models directly from experimental data. These novel methods can infer not only the relations and parameters of the known molecules defined in their input datasets, but also unknown components and pathways identified as necessary by the automated algorithms. Identifying the molecular nature of these unknown components is a crucial step for making testable predictions and experimentally validating the models, yet no specific and efficient tools exist to aid in this process. To this end, we present here MoCha (Molecular Characterization), a tool optimized for the search of unknown proteins and their pathways from a given set of known interacting proteins. MoCha uses the comprehensive dataset of protein-protein interactions provided by the STRING database, which currently includes more than a billion interactions from over 2,000 organisms. MoCha is highly optimized, performing typical searches within seconds. We demonstrate the use of MoCha with the characterization of unknown components from reverse-engineered models from the literature. MoCha is useful for working on network models by hand or as a downstream step of a model inference engine workflow and represents a valuable and efficient tool for the characterization of unknown pathways using known data from thousands of organisms. MoCha and its source code are freely available online under the GPLv3 license.

Simultaneous Parameters Identifiability and Estimation of an E. coli Metabolic Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kese Pontes Freitas Alberton

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This work proposes a procedure for simultaneous parameters identifiability and estimation in metabolic networks in order to overcome difficulties associated with lack of experimental data and large number of parameters, a common scenario in the modeling of such systems. As case study, the complex real problem of parameters identifiability of the Escherichia coli K-12 W3110 dynamic model was investigated, composed by 18 differential ordinary equations and 35 kinetic rates, containing 125 parameters. With the procedure, model fit was improved for most of the measured metabolites, achieving 58 parameters estimated, including 5 unknown initial conditions. The results indicate that simultaneous parameters identifiability and estimation approach in metabolic networks is appealing, since model fit to the most of measured metabolites was possible even when important measures of intracellular metabolites and good initial estimates of parameters are not available.

IDENTIFICATION OF MODAL PARAMETERS OF VIBRATING STRUCTURES WITH UNKNOWN ORSTOCHASTIC EXCITATION

OpenAIRE

Amaro Baldeón, Roberto; Gardel Kurka, Paulo

2014-01-01

The Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) Model is used to identify dynamical characteristics of a structural system in the presence of noise. In order to estimate the parameters of the VARMA Model, the Spliid’s fast algorithm is used. To determine the modal parameters the companion matrix is built with the autoregressive part of the VARMA Model. The performance of this method here discussed is presented by means of simulations, using three degrees of freedom mass-dampingstiffness vibr...

Parameter extraction of different fuel cell models with transferred adaptive differential evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong, Wenyin; Yan, Xuesong; Liu, Xiaobo; Cai, Zhihua

2015-01-01

To improve the design and control of FC (fuel cell) models, it is important to extract their unknown parameters. Generally, the parameter extraction problems of FC models can be transformed as nonlinear and multi-variable optimization problems. To extract the parameters of different FC models exactly and fast, in this paper, we propose a transferred adaptive DE (differential evolution) framework, in which the successful parameters of the adaptive DE solving previous problems are properly transferred to solve new optimization problems in the similar problem-domains. Based on this framework, an improved adaptive DE method (TRADE, in short) is presented as an illustration. To verify the performance of our proposal, TRADE is used to extract the unknown parameters of two types of fuel cell models, i.e., PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) and SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell). The results of TRADE are also compared with those of other state-of-the-art EAs (evolutionary algorithms). Even though the modification is very simple, the results indicate that TRADE can extract the parameters of both PEMFC and SOFC models exactly and fast. Moreover, the V–I characteristics obtained by TRADE agree well with the simulated and experimental data in all cases for both types of fuel cell models. Also, it improves the performance of the original adaptive DE significantly in terms of both the quality of final solutions and the convergence speed in all cases. Additionally, TRADE is able to provide better results compared with other EAs. - Highlights: • A framework of transferred adaptive differential evolution is proposed. • Based on the framework, an improved differential evolution (TRADE) is presented. • TRADE obtains very promising results to extract the parameters of PEMFC and SOFC models

A method for model identification and parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

2013-01-01

We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

Adaptive Parameter Estimation of Person Recognition Model in a Stochastic Human Tracking Process

Science.gov (United States)

Nakanishi, W.; Fuse, T.; Ishikawa, T.

2015-05-01

This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation using general state space model. Firstly we explain the way to formulate human tracking in general state space model with their components. Then referring to previous researches, we use Bhattacharyya coefficient to formulate observation model of general state space model, which is corresponding to person recognition model. The observation model in this paper is a function of Bhattacharyya coefficient with one unknown parameter. At last we sequentially estimate this parameter in real dataset with some settings. Results showed that sequential parameter estimation was succeeded and were consistent with observation situations such as occlusions.

Psychological profile: the problem of modeling the unknown criminal personality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Г. М. Гетьман

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The article investigates the problem of modeling an unknown person in the preparation of criminal psychological profile. Some approaches to the concept of "psychological profile" and "psychological portrait", in particular the proposed delineation of these terms. We consider the system steps in the development of the psychological profile of an unknown perpetrator.

Adaptive Tracking and Obstacle Avoidance Control for Mobile Robots with Unknown Sliding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyue Cui

2012-11-01

Full Text Available An adaptive control approach is proposed for trajectory tracking and obstacle avoidance for mobile robots with consideration given to unknown sliding. A kinematic model of mobile robots is established in this paper, in which both longitudinal and lateral sliding are considered and processed as three time-varying parameters. A sliding model observer is introduced to estimate the sliding parameters online. A stable tracking control law for this nonholonomic system is proposed to compensate the unknown sliding effect. From Lyapunov-stability analysis, it is proved, regardless of unknown sliding, that tracking errors of the controlled closed-loop system are asymptotically stable, the tracking errors converge to zero outside the obstacle detection region and obstacle avoidance is guaranteed inside the obstacle detection region. The efficiency and robustness of the proposed control system are verified by simulation results.

Three-dimensional FEM model of FBGs in PANDA fibers with experimentally determined model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Lindner, Markus; Hopf, Barbara; Koch, Alexander W.; Roths, Johannes

2017-04-01

A 3D-FEM model has been developed to improve the understanding of multi-parameter sensing with Bragg gratings in attached or embedded polarization maintaining fibers. The material properties of the fiber, especially Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the fiber's stress applying parts, are crucial for accurate simulations, but are usually not provided by the manufacturers. A methodology is presented to determine the unknown parameters by using experimental characterizations of the fiber and iterative FEM simulations. The resulting 3D-Model is capable of describing the change in birefringence of the free fiber when exposed to longitudinal strain. In future studies the 3D-FEM model will be employed to study the interaction of PANDA fibers with the surrounding materials in which they are embedded.

Bayesian source term determination with unknown covariance of measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Belal, Alkomiet; Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav

2017-04-01

Determination of a source term of release of a hazardous material into the atmosphere is a very important task for emergency response. We are concerned with the problem of estimation of the source term in the conventional linear inverse problem, y = Mx, where the relationship between the vector of observations y is described using the source-receptor-sensitivity (SRS) matrix M and the unknown source term x. Since the system is typically ill-conditioned, the problem is recast as an optimization problem minR,B(y - Mx)TR-1(y - Mx) + xTB-1x. The first term minimizes the error of the measurements with covariance matrix R, and the second term is a regularization of the source term. There are different types of regularization arising for different choices of matrices R and B, for example, Tikhonov regularization assumes covariance matrix B as the identity matrix multiplied by scalar parameter. In this contribution, we adopt a Bayesian approach to make inference on the unknown source term x as well as unknown R and B. We assume prior on x to be a Gaussian with zero mean and unknown diagonal covariance matrix B. The covariance matrix of the likelihood R is also unknown. We consider two potential choices of the structure of the matrix R. First is the diagonal matrix and the second is a locally correlated structure using information on topology of the measuring network. Since the inference of the model is intractable, iterative variational Bayes algorithm is used for simultaneous estimation of all model parameters. The practical usefulness of our contribution is demonstrated on an application of the resulting algorithm to real data from the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX). This research is supported by EEA/Norwegian Financial Mechanism under project MSMT-28477/2014 Source-Term Determination of Radionuclide Releases by Inverse Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling (STRADI).

Identifiability of parameters and behaviour of the MCMC chains: a case study using the reaction norm model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shariati, M M; Korsgaard, I R; Sorensen, D

2009-01-01

model with unknown covariates (RNUC) is a model in which unknown environmental effects can be inferred jointly with the remaining parameters. The problem of identifiability of parameters at the level of the likelihood and the associated behaviour of MCMC chains were discussed using the RNUC...... as fixed and there are other fixed factors in the model, the contrasts involving environmental effects, the variance of environmental sensitivities (genetic slopes) and the residual variance are the only identifiable parameters. These different identifiability scenarios were generated by changing...... as an example. It was shown theoretically that when environmental effects (covariates) are considered as random effects, estimable functions of the fixed effects, (co)variance components and genetic effects are identifiable as well as the environmental effects. When the environmental effects are treated...

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, Robert

We consider the problem of conducting estimation and inference on the parameters of univariate heteroskedastic fractionally integrated time series models. We first extend existing results in the literature, developed for conditional sum-of squares estimators in the context of parametric fractional...... time series models driven by conditionally homoskedastic shocks, to allow for conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity both of a quite general and unknown form. Global consistency and asymptotic normality are shown to still obtain; however, the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution...... of the estimator now depends on nuisance parameters derived both from the weak dependence and heteroskedasticity present in the shocks. We then investigate classical methods of inference based on the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests for linear hypotheses on either or both of the long and short...

Parameter and state estimation in a Neisseria meningitidis model: A study case of Niger

Science.gov (United States)

Bowong, S.; Mountaga, L.; Bah, A.; Tewa, J. J.; Kurths, J.

2016-12-01

Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of bacterial meningitidis outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East. The availability of yearly reported meningitis cases in the African meningitis belt offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies. In this paper, we propose a method for the estimation of state variables that are not accessible to measurements and an unknown parameter in a Nm model. We suppose that the yearly number of Nm induced mortality and the total population are known inputs, which can be obtained from data, and the yearly number of new Nm cases is the model output. We also suppose that the Nm transmission rate is an unknown parameter. We first show how the recruitment rate into the population can be estimated using real data of the total population and Nm induced mortality. Then, we use an auxiliary system called observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of the original model. This observer does not use the unknown infection transmission rate but only uses the known inputs and the model output. This allows us to estimate unmeasured state variables such as the number of carriers that play an important role in the transmission of the infection and the total number of infected individuals within a human community. Finally, we also provide a simple method to estimate the unknown Nm transmission rate. In order to validate the estimation results, numerical simulations are conducted using real data of Niger.

Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

2013-09-01

The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robust Control for the Segway with Unknown Control Coefficient and Model Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byung Woo Kim

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The Segway, which is a popular vehicle nowadays, is an uncertain nonlinear system and has an unknown time-varying control coefficient. Thus, we should consider the unknown time-varying control coefficient and model uncertainties to design the controller. Motivated by this observation, we propose a robust control for the Segway with unknown control coefficient and model uncertainties. To deal with the time-varying unknown control coefficient, we employ the Nussbaum gain technique. We introduce an auxiliary variable to solve the underactuated problem. Due to the prescribed performance control technique, the proposed controller does not require the adaptive technique, neural network, and fuzzy logic to compensate the uncertainties. Therefore, it can be simple. From the Lyapunov stability theory, we prove that all signals in the closed-loop system are bounded. Finally, we provide the simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Structural observability analysis and EKF based parameter estimation of building heating models

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D.W.U. Perera

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Research for enhanced energy-efficient buildings has been given much recognition in the recent years owing to their high energy consumptions. Increasing energy needs can be precisely controlled by practicing advanced controllers for building Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC systems. Advanced controllers require a mathematical building heating model to operate, and these models need to be accurate and computationally efficient. One main concern associated with such models is the accurate estimation of the unknown model parameters. This paper presents the feasibility of implementing a simplified building heating model and the computation of physical parameters using an off-line approach. Structural observability analysis is conducted using graph-theoretic techniques to analyze the observability of the developed system model. Then Extended Kalman Filter (EKF algorithm is utilized for parameter estimates using the real measurements of a single-zone building. The simulation-based results confirm that even with a simple model, the EKF follows the state variables accurately. The predicted parameters vary depending on the inputs and disturbances.

Design of a DNA chip for detection of unknown genetically modified organisms (GMOs).

Science.gov (United States)

Nesvold, Håvard; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Holst-Jensen, Arne; Berdal, Knut G

2005-05-01

Unknown genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have not undergone a risk evaluation, and hence might pose a danger to health and environment. There are, today, no methods for detecting unknown GMOs. In this paper we propose a novel method intended as a first step in an approach for detecting unknown genetically modified (GM) material in a single plant. A model is designed where biological and combinatorial reduction rules are applied to a set of DNA chip probes containing all possible sequences of uniform length n, creating probes capable of detecting unknown GMOs. The model is theoretically tested for Arabidopsis thaliana Columbia, and the probabilities for detecting inserts and receiving false positives are assessed for various parameters for this organism. From a theoretical standpoint, the model looks very promising but should be tested further in the laboratory. The model and algorithms will be available upon request to the corresponding author.

Multidimensional procurement auctions with unknown weights

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greve, Thomas

This paper studies the consequences of holding a procurement auction when the principal chooses not to show its preferences. My paper extends the procurement auction model of Che (1993) to a situation where both the principal and the agents have private information. Thus, unknown parameters of bo...... gives rise to an analysis of a principal that can not fully commit to the outcome induced by the scoring rule. Therefore, my result apply to contract theory and it’s problems with imperfect commitment....

Tests of Parameters Instability: Theoretical Study and Empirical Applications on Two Types of Models (ARMA Model and Market Model

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Sahbi FARHANI

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers tests of parameters instability and structural change with known, unknown or multiple breakpoints. The results apply to a wide class of parametric models that are suitable for estimation by strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series. For that, we use Chow, CUSUM, CUSUM of squares, Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests. Each test implicitly uses an estimate of a change point. We conclude with an empirical analysis on two different models (ARMA model and simple linear regression model.

Lumped-parameter models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

2006-12-15

A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

An eigenvalue approach for the automatic scaling of unknowns in model-based reconstructions: Application to real-time phase-contrast flow MRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Zhengguo; Hohage, Thorsten; Kalentev, Oleksandr; Joseph, Arun A; Wang, Xiaoqing; Voit, Dirk; Merboldt, K Dietmar; Frahm, Jens

2017-12-01

The purpose of this work is to develop an automatic method for the scaling of unknowns in model-based nonlinear inverse reconstructions and to evaluate its application to real-time phase-contrast (RT-PC) flow magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Model-based MRI reconstructions of parametric maps which describe a physical or physiological function require the solution of a nonlinear inverse problem, because the list of unknowns in the extended MRI signal equation comprises multiple functional parameters and all coil sensitivity profiles. Iterative solutions therefore rely on an appropriate scaling of unknowns to numerically balance partial derivatives and regularization terms. The scaling of unknowns emerges as a self-adjoint and positive-definite matrix which is expressible by its maximal eigenvalue and solved by power iterations. The proposed method is applied to RT-PC flow MRI based on highly undersampled acquisitions. Experimental validations include numerical phantoms providing ground truth and a wide range of human studies in the ascending aorta, carotid arteries, deep veins during muscular exercise and cerebrospinal fluid during deep respiration. For RT-PC flow MRI, model-based reconstructions with automatic scaling not only offer velocity maps with high spatiotemporal acuity and much reduced phase noise, but also ensure fast convergence as well as accurate and precise velocities for all conditions tested, i.e. for different velocity ranges, vessel sizes and the simultaneous presence of signals with velocity aliasing. In summary, the proposed automatic scaling of unknowns in model-based MRI reconstructions yields quantitatively reliable velocities for RT-PC flow MRI in various experimental scenarios. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigation on Insar Time Series Deformation Model Considering Rheological Parameters for Soft Clay Subgrade Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, X.; Yuan, Z.; Chen, L. F.; Yu, X. Y.; Xiao, L.

2018-04-01

The stability control is one of the major technical difficulties in the field of highway subgrade construction engineering. Building deformation model is a crucial step for InSAR time series deformation monitoring. Most of the InSAR deformation models for deformation monitoring are pure empirical mathematical models, without considering the physical mechanism of the monitored object. In this study, we take rheology into consideration, inducing rheological parameters into traditional InSAR deformation models. To assess the feasibility and accuracy for our new model, both simulation and real deformation data over Lungui highway (a typical highway built on soft clay subgrade in Guangdong province, China) are investigated with TerraSAR-X satellite imagery. In order to solve the unknows of the non-linear rheological model, three algorithms: Gauss-Newton (GN), Levenberg-Marquarat (LM), and Genetic Algorithm (GA), are utilized and compared to estimate the unknown parameters. Considering both the calculation efficiency and accuracy, GA is chosen as the final choice for the new model in our case study. Preliminary real data experiment is conducted with use of 17 TerraSAR-X Stripmap images (with a 3-m resolution). With the new deformation model and GA aforementioned, the unknown rheological parameters over all the high coherence points are obtained and the LOS deformation (the low-pass component) sequences are generated.

Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

2017-05-24

In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

2013-12-01

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

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Chen, M.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.

2008-01-01

Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the

Parameter identification of thermophilic anaerobic degradation of valerate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flotats, X; Ahring, Birgitte Kiær; Angelidaki, Irini

2002-01-01

Mathematical model of the decomposition of valerate presents 3 unknown kinetic parameters, 2 unknown stoichiometric coefficients and 3 unknown initial concentrations for biomass. Applying a structural identifiability study, it is concluded that it is necessary to perform simultaneous batch experi...

Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-02

The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

Multi-Scale Parameter Identification of Lithium-Ion Battery Electric Models Using a PSO-LM Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Jing Shen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a multi-scale parameter identification algorithm for the lithium-ion battery (LIB electric model by using a combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM algorithms. Two-dimensional Poisson equations with unknown parameters are used to describe the potential and current density distribution (PDD of the positive and negative electrodes in the LIB electric model. The model parameters are difficult to determine in the simulation due to the nonlinear complexity of the model. In the proposed identification algorithm, PSO is used for the coarse-scale parameter identification and the LM algorithm is applied for the fine-scale parameter identification. The experiment results show that the multi-scale identification not only improves the convergence rate and effectively escapes from the stagnation of PSO, but also overcomes the local minimum entrapment drawback of the LM algorithm. The terminal voltage curves from the PDD model with the identified parameter values are in good agreement with those from the experiments at different discharge/charge rates.

Maximum profile likelihood estimation of differential equation parameters through model based smoothing state estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O

2013-12-01

Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rendezvous with connectivity preservation for multi-robot systems with an unknown leader

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Yi

2018-02-01

This paper studies the leader-following rendezvous problem with connectivity preservation for multi-agent systems composed of uncertain multi-robot systems subject to external disturbances and an unknown leader, both of which are generated by a so-called exosystem with parametric uncertainty. By combining internal model design, potential function technique and adaptive control, two distributed control strategies are proposed to maintain the connectivity of the communication network, to achieve the asymptotic tracking of all the followers to the output of the unknown leader system, as well as to reject unknown external disturbances. It is also worth to mention that the uncertain parameters in the multi-robot systems and exosystem are further allowed to belong to unknown and unbounded sets when applying the second fully distributed control law containing a dynamic gain inspired by high-gain adaptive control or self-tuning regulator.

Robust Adaptive Sliding Mode Control for Generalized Function Projective Synchronization of Different Chaotic Systems with Unknown Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuchun Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available When the parameters of both drive and response systems are all unknown, an adaptive sliding mode controller, strongly robust to exotic perturbations, is designed for realizing generalized function projective synchronization. Sliding mode surface is given and the controlled system is asymptotically stable on this surface with the passage of time. Based on the adaptation laws and Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive sliding controller is designed to ensure the occurrence of the sliding motion. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method even when both drive and response systems are perturbed with external disturbances.

Estimation of Parameters in Mean-Reverting Stochastic Systems

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Tianhai Tian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Stochastic differential equation (SDE is a very important mathematical tool to describe complex systems in which noise plays an important role. SDE models have been widely used to study the dynamic properties of various nonlinear systems in biology, engineering, finance, and economics, as well as physical sciences. Since a SDE can generate unlimited numbers of trajectories, it is difficult to estimate model parameters based on experimental observations which may represent only one trajectory of the stochastic model. Although substantial research efforts have been made to develop effective methods, it is still a challenge to infer unknown parameters in SDE models from observations that may have large variations. Using an interest rate model as a test problem, in this work we use the Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate unknown parameters in SDE models.

A sensitivity analysis approach to control of manipulators with unknown load

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzes, A.; Yurkovich, S.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a straightforward control strategy applied to an N-link manipulator holding an unknown load and driving its end effector along a prespecified trajectory. The control is constituted into two primary components. The non-adaptive component is derived from the inverse problem technique while the adaptive component is computed via the application of sensitivity analysis applied to the complete, centralized dynamic model of the manipulator. The result is a robust adaptive controller which tunes its parameters at specified time instants and can withstand all expected variations of the payload. The control synthesis is illustrated by simulations in a 2-link planar manipulator holding an unknown load

A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey interaction model and parameter identifiability

Science.gov (United States)

Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Meghwani, Suraj S.; Thakur, Manoj; Abbas, Syed

2018-01-01

In this work, bifurcation and a systematic approach for estimation of identifiable parameters of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin functional response and prey refuge is discussed. Global asymptotic stability is discussed by applying fluctuation lemma. The system undergoes into Hopf bifurcation with respect to parameters intrinsic growth rate of predators (s) and prey reserve (m). The stability of Hopf bifurcation is also discussed by calculating Lyapunov number. The sensitivity analysis of the considered model system with respect to all variables is performed which also supports our theoretical study. To estimate the unknown parameter from the data, an optimization procedure (pseudo-random search algorithm) is adopted. System responses and phase plots for estimated parameters are also compared with true noise free data. It is found that the system dynamics with true set of parametric values is similar to the estimated parametric values. Numerical simulations are presented to substantiate the analytical findings.

A Central Composite Face-Centered Design for Parameters Estimation of PEM Fuel Cell Electrochemical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled MAMMAR

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach based on Experimental of design methodology (DoE is used to estimate the optimal of unknown model parameters proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC. This proposed approach combines the central composite face-centered (CCF and numerical PEMFC electrochemical. Simulation results obtained using electrochemical model help to predict the cell voltage in terms of inlet partial pressures of hydrogen and oxygen, stack temperature, and operating current. The value of the previous model and (CCF design methodology is used for parametric analysis of electrochemical model. Thus it is possible to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter to the simulation accuracy. However this methodology is able to define the exact values of the parameters from the manufacture data. It was tested for the BCS 500-W stack PEM Generator, a stack rated at 500 W, manufactured by American Company BCS Technologies FC.

Adaptive Model Predictive Vibration Control of a Cantilever Beam with Real-Time Parameter Estimation

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Gergely Takács

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an adaptive-predictive vibration control system using extended Kalman filtering for the joint estimation of system states and model parameters. A fixed-free cantilever beam equipped with piezoceramic actuators serves as a test platform to validate the proposed control strategy. Deflection readings taken at the end of the beam have been used to reconstruct the position and velocity information for a second-order state-space model. In addition to the states, the dynamic system has been augmented by the unknown model parameters: stiffness, damping constant, and a voltage/force conversion constant, characterizing the actuating effect of the piezoceramic transducers. The states and parameters of this augmented system have been estimated in real time, using the hybrid extended Kalman filter. The estimated model parameters have been applied to define the continuous state-space model of the vibrating system, which in turn is discretized for the predictive controller. The model predictive control algorithm generates state predictions and dual-mode quadratic cost prediction matrices based on the updated discrete state-space models. The resulting cost function is then minimized using quadratic programming to find the sequence of optimal but constrained control inputs. The proposed active vibration control system is implemented and evaluated experimentally to investigate the viability of the control method.

Optimization of biomathematical model predictions for cognitive performance impairment in individuals: accounting for unknown traits and uncertain states in homeostatic and circadian processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dongen, Hans P A; Mott, Christopher G; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Mollicone, Daniel J; McKenzie, Frederic D; Dinges, David F

2007-09-01

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy. These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used to predict performance on the basis of the combination of a sleep homeostatic process and a circadian process. Employing the two-process model with the Bayesian forecasting procedure to predict performance for individual subjects in the face of unknown traits and uncertain states entailed subject-specific optimization of 3 trait parameters (homeostatic build-up rate, circadian amplitude, and basal performance level) and 2 initial state parameters (initial homeostatic state and circadian phase angle). Prior information about the distribution of the trait parameters in the population at large was extracted from psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance measurements in 10 subjects who had participated in a laboratory experiment with 88 h of total sleep deprivation. The PVT performance data of 3 additional subjects in this experiment were set aside beforehand for use in prospective computer simulations. The simulations involved updating the subject-specific model parameters every time the next performance measurement became available, and then predicting performance 24 h ahead. Comparison of the predictions to the subjects' actual data revealed that as more data became available for the individuals at hand, the performance predictions became

Accelerated maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic biochemical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daigle Bernie J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A prerequisite for the mechanistic simulation of a biochemical system is detailed knowledge of its kinetic parameters. Despite recent experimental advances, the estimation of unknown parameter values from observed data is still a bottleneck for obtaining accurate simulation results. Many methods exist for parameter estimation in deterministic biochemical systems; methods for discrete stochastic systems are less well developed. Given the probabilistic nature of stochastic biochemical models, a natural approach is to choose parameter values that maximize the probability of the observed data with respect to the unknown parameters, a.k.a. the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs. MLE computation for all but the simplest models requires the simulation of many system trajectories that are consistent with experimental data. For models with unknown parameters, this presents a computational challenge, as the generation of consistent trajectories can be an extremely rare occurrence. Results We have developed Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization with Modified Cross-Entropy Method (MCEM2: an accelerated method for calculating MLEs that combines advances in rare event simulation with a computationally efficient version of the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM algorithm. Our method requires no prior knowledge regarding parameter values, and it automatically provides a multivariate parameter uncertainty estimate. We applied the method to five stochastic systems of increasing complexity, progressing from an analytically tractable pure-birth model to a computationally demanding model of yeast-polarization. Our results demonstrate that MCEM2 substantially accelerates MLE computation on all tested models when compared to a stand-alone version of MCEM. Additionally, we show how our method identifies parameter values for certain classes of models more accurately than two recently proposed computationally efficient methods

Testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Péguin-Feissolle, Anne; Strikholm, Birgit; Teräsvirta, Timo

In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space. We study the performance of our tests b...

Smooth extrapolation of unknown anatomy via statistical shape models

Science.gov (United States)

Grupp, R. B.; Chiang, H.; Otake, Y.; Murphy, R. J.; Gordon, C. R.; Armand, M.; Taylor, R. H.

2015-03-01

Several methods to perform extrapolation of unknown anatomy were evaluated. The primary application is to enhance surgical procedures that may use partial medical images or medical images of incomplete anatomy. Le Fort-based, face-jaw-teeth transplant is one such procedure. From CT data of 36 skulls and 21 mandibles separate Statistical Shape Models of the anatomical surfaces were created. Using the Statistical Shape Models, incomplete surfaces were projected to obtain complete surface estimates. The surface estimates exhibit non-zero error in regions where the true surface is known; it is desirable to keep the true surface and seamlessly merge the estimated unknown surface. Existing extrapolation techniques produce non-smooth transitions from the true surface to the estimated surface, resulting in additional error and a less aesthetically pleasing result. The three extrapolation techniques evaluated were: copying and pasting of the surface estimate (non-smooth baseline), a feathering between the patient surface and surface estimate, and an estimate generated via a Thin Plate Spline trained from displacements between the surface estimate and corresponding vertices of the known patient surface. Feathering and Thin Plate Spline approaches both yielded smooth transitions. However, feathering corrupted known vertex values. Leave-one-out analyses were conducted, with 5% to 50% of known anatomy removed from the left-out patient and estimated via the proposed approaches. The Thin Plate Spline approach yielded smaller errors than the other two approaches, with an average vertex error improvement of 1.46 mm and 1.38 mm for the skull and mandible respectively, over the baseline approach.

Customized Steady-State Constraints for Parameter Estimation in Non-Linear Ordinary Differential Equation Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenblatt, Marcus; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-01-01

Ordinary differential equation models have become a wide-spread approach to analyze dynamical systems and understand underlying mechanisms. Model parameters are often unknown and have to be estimated from experimental data, e.g., by maximum-likelihood estimation. In particular, models of biological systems contain a large number of parameters. To reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space, steady-state information is incorporated in the parameter estimation process. For non-linear models, analytical steady-state calculation typically leads to higher-order polynomial equations for which no closed-form solutions can be obtained. This can be circumvented by solving the steady-state equations for kinetic parameters, which results in a linear equation system with comparatively simple solutions. At the same time multiplicity of steady-state solutions is avoided, which otherwise is problematic for optimization. When solved for kinetic parameters, however, steady-state constraints tend to become negative for particular model specifications, thus, generating new types of optimization problems. Here, we present an algorithm based on graph theory that derives non-negative, analytical steady-state expressions by stepwise removal of cyclic dependencies between dynamical variables. The algorithm avoids multiple steady-state solutions by construction. We show that our method is applicable to most common classes of biochemical reaction networks containing inhibition terms, mass-action and Hill-type kinetic equations. Comparing the performance of parameter estimation for different analytical and numerical methods of incorporating steady-state information, we show that our approach is especially well-tailored to guarantee a high success rate of optimization.

On selecting a prior for the precision parameter of Dirichlet process mixture models

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, R.M.

2009-01-01

In hierarchical mixture models the Dirichlet process is used to specify latent patterns of heterogeneity, particularly when the distribution of latent parameters is thought to be clustered (multimodal). The parameters of a Dirichlet process include a precision parameter ?? and a base probability measure G0. In problems where ?? is unknown and must be estimated, inferences about the level of clustering can be sensitive to the choice of prior assumed for ??. In this paper an approach is developed for computing a prior for the precision parameter ?? that can be used in the presence or absence of prior information about the level of clustering. This approach is illustrated in an analysis of counts of stream fishes. The results of this fully Bayesian analysis are compared with an empirical Bayes analysis of the same data and with a Bayesian analysis based on an alternative commonly used prior.

Estimation of Key Parameters of the Coupled Energy and Water Model by Assimilating Land Surface Data

Science.gov (United States)

Abdolghafoorian, A.; Farhadi, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of land surface heat and moisture fluxes, as well as root zone soil moisture, is crucial in various hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural applications. Field measurements of these fluxes are costly and cannot be readily scaled to large areas relevant to weather and climate studies. Therefore, there is a need for techniques to make quantitative estimates of heat and moisture fluxes using land surface state observations that are widely available from remote sensing across a range of scale. In this work, we applies the variational data assimilation approach to estimate land surface fluxes and soil moisture profile from the implicit information contained Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Soil Moisture (SM) (hereafter the VDA model). The VDA model is focused on the estimation of three key parameters: 1- neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN), 2- evaporative fraction from soil and canopy (EF), and 3- saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat). CHN and EF regulate the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes. Ksat is one of the main parameters used in determining infiltration, runoff, groundwater recharge, and in simulating hydrological processes. In this study, a system of coupled parsimonious energy and water model will constrain the estimation of three unknown parameters in the VDA model. The profile of SM (LST) at multiple depths is estimated using moisture diffusion (heat diffusion) equation. In this study, the uncertainties of retrieved unknown parameters and fluxes are estimated from the inverse of Hesian matrix of cost function which is computed using the Lagrangian methodology. Analysis of uncertainty provides valuable information about the accuracy of estimated parameters and their correlation and guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. The results of proposed algorithm are validated with a series of experiments using a synthetic data set generated by the simultaneous heat and

Adaptive Control for Revolute Joints Robot Manipulator with Uncertain/Unknown Dynamic Parameters and in Presence of Disturbance in Control Input

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seyed Sakha, Masoud; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2017-01-01

This paper presents an effective adaptive controller for revolute joints robot manipulator where the control input is accompanied with a random disturbance (with unknown PSD). It is clear that, disturbance can compromise the overall performance of the system. To cope with this problem, a control...... technique is proposed which uses the concept of exponential practical stability. Unlike other counterparts, the proposed method does not need information such as the physical parameters of robot and gravitational acceleration. The results show that the proposed controller achieves an excellent performance...

Joint state and parameter estimation for a class of cascade systems: Application to a hemodynamic model

KAUST Repository

Zayane, Chadia

2014-06-01

In this paper, we address a special case of state and parameter estimation, where the system can be put on a cascade form allowing to estimate the state components and the set of unknown parameters separately. Inspired by the nonlinear Balloon hemodynamic model for functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging problem, we propose a hierarchical approach. The system is divided into two subsystems in cascade. The state and input are first estimated from a noisy measured signal using an adaptive observer. The obtained input is then used to estimate the parameters of a linear system using the modulating functions method. Some numerical results are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehnert, Teresa; Timme, Sandra; Pollmächer, Johannes; Hünniger, Kerstin; Kurzai, Oliver; Figge, Marc Thilo

2015-01-01

Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM), because this level of model complexity allows estimating a priori unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM) is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e., least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment. In the future, spatio-temporal simulations of whole-blood samples may enable timely

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M

2015-01-01

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model η(θ), where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y=η(θ)+ϵ, where ϵ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in η(⋅), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model η(⋅). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory. (paper)

Characterizing unknown systematics in large scale structure surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agarwal, Nishant; Ho, Shirley; Myers, Adam D.; Seo, Hee-Jong; Ross, Ashley J.; Bahcall, Neta; Brinkmann, Jonathan; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Muna, Demitri; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Yèche, Christophe; Pâris, Isabelle; Petitjean, Patrick; Schneider, Donald P.; Streblyanska, Alina; Weaver, Benjamin A.

2014-01-01

Photometric large scale structure (LSS) surveys probe the largest volumes in the Universe, but are inevitably limited by systematic uncertainties. Imperfect photometric calibration leads to biases in our measurements of the density fields of LSS tracers such as galaxies and quasars, and as a result in cosmological parameter estimation. Earlier studies have proposed using cross-correlations between different redshift slices or cross-correlations between different surveys to reduce the effects of such systematics. In this paper we develop a method to characterize unknown systematics. We demonstrate that while we do not have sufficient information to correct for unknown systematics in the data, we can obtain an estimate of their magnitude. We define a parameter to estimate contamination from unknown systematics using cross-correlations between different redshift slices and propose discarding bins in the angular power spectrum that lie outside a certain contamination tolerance level. We show that this method improves estimates of the bias using simulated data and further apply it to photometric luminous red galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as a case study

Characterizing unknown systematics in large scale structure surveys

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agarwal, Nishant; Ho, Shirley [McWilliams Center for Cosmology, Department of Physics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Myers, Adam D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Seo, Hee-Jong [Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics, LBL and Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Ross, Ashley J. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Bahcall, Neta [Princeton University Observatory, Peyton Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Brinkmann, Jonathan [Apache Point Observatory, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Eisenstein, Daniel J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Muna, Demitri [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Yèche, Christophe [CEA, Centre de Saclay, Irfu/SPP, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Pâris, Isabelle [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 36-D, Santiago (Chile); Petitjean, Patrick [Université Paris 6 et CNRS, Institut d' Astrophysique de Paris, 98bis blvd. Arago, 75014 Paris (France); Schneider, Donald P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Streblyanska, Alina [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC), E-38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Weaver, Benjamin A., E-mail: nishanta@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

2014-04-01

Photometric large scale structure (LSS) surveys probe the largest volumes in the Universe, but are inevitably limited by systematic uncertainties. Imperfect photometric calibration leads to biases in our measurements of the density fields of LSS tracers such as galaxies and quasars, and as a result in cosmological parameter estimation. Earlier studies have proposed using cross-correlations between different redshift slices or cross-correlations between different surveys to reduce the effects of such systematics. In this paper we develop a method to characterize unknown systematics. We demonstrate that while we do not have sufficient information to correct for unknown systematics in the data, we can obtain an estimate of their magnitude. We define a parameter to estimate contamination from unknown systematics using cross-correlations between different redshift slices and propose discarding bins in the angular power spectrum that lie outside a certain contamination tolerance level. We show that this method improves estimates of the bias using simulated data and further apply it to photometric luminous red galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as a case study.

Time-Varying FOPDT Modeling and On-line Parameter Identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Zhenyu; Sun, Zhen

2013-01-01

on the Mixed-Integer-Nonlinear Programming, Least-Mean-Square and sliding window techniques. The proposed approaches can simultaneously estimate the time-dependent system parameters, as well as the unknown disturbance input if it is the case, in an on-line manner. The proposed concepts and algorithms...

Location-based Mobile Relay Selection and Impact of Inaccurate Path Loss Model Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

2010-01-01

In this paper we propose a relay selection scheme which uses collected location information together with a path loss model for relay selection, and analyze the performance impact of mobility and different error causes on this scheme. Performance is evaluated in terms of bit error rate...... by simulations. The SNR measurement based relay selection scheme proposed previously is unsuitable for use with fast moving users in e.g. vehicular scenarios due to a large signaling overhead. The proposed location based scheme is shown to work well with fast moving users due to a lower signaling overhead...... in these situations. As the location-based scheme relies on a path loss model to estimate link qualities and select relays, the sensitivity with respect to inaccurate estimates of the unknown path loss model parameters is investigated. The parameter ranges that result in useful performance were found...

Efficient Ensemble State-Parameters Estimation Techniques in Ocean Ecosystem Models: Application to the North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

El Gharamti, M.; Bethke, I.; Tjiputra, J.; Bertino, L.

2016-02-01

Given the recent strong international focus on developing new data assimilation systems for biological models, we present in this comparative study the application of newly developed state-parameters estimation tools to an ocean ecosystem model. It is quite known that the available physical models are still too simple compared to the complexity of the ocean biology. Furthermore, various biological parameters remain poorly unknown and hence wrong specifications of such parameters can lead to large model errors. Standard joint state-parameters augmentation technique using the ensemble Kalman filter (Stochastic EnKF) has been extensively tested in many geophysical applications. Some of these assimilation studies reported that jointly updating the state and the parameters might introduce significant inconsistency especially for strongly nonlinear models. This is usually the case for ecosystem models particularly during the period of the spring bloom. A better handling of the estimation problem is often carried out by separating the update of the state and the parameters using the so-called Dual EnKF. The dual filter is computationally more expensive than the Joint EnKF but is expected to perform more accurately. Using a similar separation strategy, we propose a new EnKF estimation algorithm in which we apply a one-step-ahead smoothing to the state. The new state-parameters estimation scheme is derived in a consistent Bayesian filtering framework and results in separate update steps for the state and the parameters. Unlike the classical filtering path, the new scheme starts with an update step and later a model propagation step is performed. We test the performance of the new smoothing-based schemes against the standard EnKF in a one-dimensional configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) in the North Atlantic. We use nutrients profile (up to 2000 m deep) data and surface partial CO2 measurements from Mike weather station (66o N, 2o E) to estimate

Parameter identification of a BWR nuclear power plant model for use in optimal control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volf, K.

1976-02-01

The problem being considered is the modeling of a nuclear power plant for the development of an optimal control system of the plant. Current system identification concepts, combining input/output information with a-priori structural information are employed. Two of the known parameter identification methods i.e., a least squares method and a maximum likelihood technique, are studied as ways of parameter identification from measurement data. A low order state variable stochastic model of a BWR nuclear power plant is presented as an application of this approach. The model consists of a deterministic and a noise part. The deterministic part is formed by simplified modeling of the major plant dynamic phenomena. The moise part models the effects of input random disturbances to the deterministic part and additive measurement noise. Most of the model parameters are assumed to be initially unknown. They are identified using measurement data records. A detailed high order digital computer simulation is used to simulate plant dynamic behaviour since it is not conceivable for experimentation of this kind to be performed on the real nuclear power plant. The identification task consists in adapting the performance of the simple model to the data acquired from this plant simulation ensuring the applicability of the techniques to measurement data acquired directly from the plant. (orig.) [de

Analysis and Adaptive Synchronization of Two Novel Chaotic Systems with Hyperbolic Sinusoidal and Cosinusoidal Nonlinearity and Unknown Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Vaidyanathan

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This research work describes the modelling of two novel 3-D chaotic systems, the first with a hyperbolic sinusoidal nonlinearity and two quadratic nonlinearities (denoted as system (A and the second with a hyperbolic cosinusoidal nonlinearity and two quadratic nonlinearities (denoted as system (B. In this work, a detailed qualitative analysis of the novel chaotic systems (A and (B has been presented, and the Lyapunov exponents and Kaplan-Yorke dimension of these chaotic systems have been obtained. It is found that the maximal Lyapunov exponent (MLE for the novel chaotic systems (A and (B has a large value, viz. for the system (A and for the system (B. Thus, both the novel chaotic systems (A and (B display strong chaotic behaviour. This research work also discusses the problem of finding adaptive controllers for the global chaos synchronization of identical chaotic systems (A, identical chaotic systems (B and nonidentical chaotic systems (A and (B with unknown system parameters. The adaptive controllers for achieving global chaos synchronization of the novel chaotic systems (A and (B have been derived using adaptive control theory and Lyapunov stability theory. MATLAB simulations have been shown to illustrate the novel chaotic systems (A and (B, and also the adaptive synchronization results derived for the novel chaotic systems (A and (B.

Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

2004-01-01

This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

Multi-objective optimization in quantum parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, BeiLi; Cui, Wei

2018-04-01

We investigate quantum parameter estimation based on linear and Kerr-type nonlinear controls in an open quantum system, and consider the dissipation rate as an unknown parameter. We show that while the precision of parameter estimation is improved, it usually introduces a significant deformation to the system state. Moreover, we propose a multi-objective model to optimize the two conflicting objectives: (1) maximizing the Fisher information, improving the parameter estimation precision, and (2) minimizing the deformation of the system state, which maintains its fidelity. Finally, simulations of a simplified ɛ-constrained model demonstrate the feasibility of the Hamiltonian control in improving the precision of the quantum parameter estimation.

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

2001-12-01

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Gaofeng; Li, Xin; Ma, Jinzhu; Wang, Yunquan; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Kun; Hu, Xiaoli

2018-04-01

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers have become increasing popular for estimating the posterior parameter distribution with the non-linear dependency structures and multiple modes often present in hydrological models. However, the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler depends strongly on the efficiency in the move step of SMC sampler. In this paper we presented a new SMC sampler entitled the Particle Evolution Metropolis Sequential Monte Carlo (PEM-SMC) algorithm, which is well suited to handle unknown static parameters of hydrologic model. The PEM-SMC sampler is inspired by the works of Liang and Wong (2001) and operates by incorporating the strengths of the genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm into the framework of SMC. We also prove that the sampler admits the target distribution to be a stationary distribution. Two case studies including a multi-dimensional bimodal normal distribution and a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model by only considering parameter uncertainty and simultaneously considering parameter and input uncertainty show that PEM-SMC sampler is generally superior to other popular SMC algorithms in handling the high dimensional problems. The study also indicated that it may be important to account for model structural uncertainty by using multiplier different hydrological models in the SMC framework in future study.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

Structure Elucidation of Unknown Metabolites in Metabolomics by Combined NMR and MS/MS Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Boiteau, Rene M; Hoyt, David W; Nicora, Carrie D; Kinmonth-Schultz, Hannah A; Ward, Joy K; Bingol, Kerem

2018-01-17

We introduce a cheminformatics approach that combines highly selective and orthogonal structure elucidation parameters; accurate mass, MS/MS (MS²), and NMR into a single analysis platform to accurately identify unknown metabolites in untargeted studies. The approach starts with an unknown LC-MS feature, and then combines the experimental MS/MS and NMR information of the unknown to effectively filter out the false positive candidate structures based on their predicted MS/MS and NMR spectra. We demonstrate the approach on a model mixture, and then we identify an uncatalogued secondary metabolite in Arabidopsis thaliana . The NMR/MS² approach is well suited to the discovery of new metabolites in plant extracts, microbes, soils, dissolved organic matter, food extracts, biofuels, and biomedical samples, facilitating the identification of metabolites that are not present in experimental NMR and MS metabolomics databases.

Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Wintle, B.A.; Runge, M.C.; Bekessy, S.A.

2010-01-01

There is a growing view that to make efficient use of resources, ecological monitoring should be hypothesis-driven and targeted to address specific management questions. 'Targeted' monitoring has been contrasted with other approaches in which a range of quantities are monitored in case they exhibit an alarming trend or provide ad hoc ecological insights. The second form of monitoring, described as surveillance, has been criticized because it does not usually aim to discern between competing hypotheses, and its benefits are harder to identify a priori. The alternative view is that the existence of surveillance data may enable rapid corroboration of emerging hypotheses or help to detect important 'unknown unknowns' that, if undetected, could lead to catastrophic outcomes or missed opportunities. We derive a model to evaluate and compare the efficiency of investments in surveillance and targeted monitoring. We find that a decision to invest in surveillance monitoring may be defensible if: (1) the surveillance design is more likely to discover or corroborate previously unknown phenomena than a targeted design and (2) the expected benefits (or avoided costs) arising from discovery are substantially higher than those arising from a well-planned targeted design. Our examination highlights the importance of being explicit about the objectives, costs and expected benefits of monitoring in a decision analytic framework. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Active fault tolerance control of a wind turbine system using an unknown input observer with an actuator fault

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Shanzhi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a fault tolerant control scheme based on an unknown input observer for a wind turbine system subject to an actuator fault and disturbance. Firstly, an unknown input observer for state estimation and fault detection using a linear parameter varying model is developed. By solving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs and linear matrix equalities (LMEs, the gains of the unknown input observer are obtained. The convergence of the unknown input observer is also analysed with Lyapunov theory. Secondly, using fault estimation, an active fault tolerant controller is applied to a wind turbine system. Finally, a simulation of a wind turbine benchmark with an actuator fault is tested for the proposed method. The simulation results indicate that the proposed FTC scheme is efficient.

Chinese Unknown Word Recognition for PCFG-LA Parsing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiuping Huang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the recognition of unknown words in Chinese parsing. Two methods are proposed to handle this problem. One is the modification of a character-based model. We model the emission probability of an unknown word using the first and last characters in the word. It aims to reduce the POS tag ambiguities of unknown words to improve the parsing performance. In addition, a novel method, using graph-based semisupervised learning (SSL, is proposed to improve the syntax parsing of unknown words. Its goal is to discover additional lexical knowledge from a large amount of unlabeled data to help the syntax parsing. The method is mainly to propagate lexical emission probabilities to unknown words by building the similarity graphs over the words of labeled and unlabeled data. The derived distributions are incorporated into the parsing process. The proposed methods are effective in dealing with the unknown words to improve the parsing. Empirical results for Penn Chinese Treebank and TCT Treebank revealed its effectiveness.

Measurement-based perturbation theory and differential equation parameter estimation with applications to satellite gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Peiliang

2018-06-01

The numerical integration method has been routinely used by major institutions worldwide, for example, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), to produce global gravitational models from satellite tracking measurements of CHAMP and/or GRACE types. Such Earth's gravitational products have found widest possible multidisciplinary applications in Earth Sciences. The method is essentially implemented by solving the differential equations of the partial derivatives of the orbit of a satellite with respect to the unknown harmonic coefficients under the conditions of zero initial values. From the mathematical and statistical point of view, satellite gravimetry from satellite tracking is essentially the problem of estimating unknown parameters in the Newton's nonlinear differential equations from satellite tracking measurements. We prove that zero initial values for the partial derivatives are incorrect mathematically and not permitted physically. The numerical integration method, as currently implemented and used in mathematics and statistics, chemistry and physics, and satellite gravimetry, is groundless, mathematically and physically. Given the Newton's nonlinear governing differential equations of satellite motion with unknown equation parameters and unknown initial conditions, we develop three methods to derive new local solutions around a nominal reference orbit, which are linked to measurements to estimate the unknown corrections to approximate values of the unknown parameters and the unknown initial conditions. Bearing in mind that satellite orbits can now be tracked almost continuously at unprecedented accuracy, we propose the measurement-based perturbation theory and derive global uniformly convergent solutions to the Newton's nonlinear governing differential equations of satellite motion for the next generation of global gravitational models. Since the solutions are global uniformly convergent, theoretically speaking

Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bárdossy

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cibira, Gabriel, E-mail: cibira@lm.uniza.sk; Koščová, Marcela, E-mail: mkoscova@lm.uniza.sk

2014-09-01

Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab{sup ®} and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab ® and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model

Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, Ian; Liu, Junli; Goldstein, Michael; Rowe, James; Topping, Jen; Lindsey, Keith

2018-01-02

Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs of the analysis, and need to be compared to observed data of various forms. The correct analysis of such models usually requires a global parameter search, over a high dimensional parameter space, that incorporates and respects the most important sources of uncertainty. This can be an extremely difficult task, but it is essential for any meaningful inference or prediction to be made about any biological system. It hence represents a fundamental challenge for the whole of systems biology. Bayesian statistical methodology for the uncertainty analysis of complex models is introduced, which is designed to address the high dimensional global parameter search problem. Bayesian emulators that mimic the systems biology model but which are extremely fast to evaluate are embeded within an iterative history match: an efficient method to search high dimensional spaces within a more formal statistical setting, while incorporating major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated via application to a model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development, which has 32 rate parameters, for which we identify the sets of rate parameter values that lead to acceptable matches between model output and observed trend data. The multiple insights into the model's structure that this analysis provides are discussed. The methodology is applied to a second related model, and the biological consequences of the resulting comparison, including the evaluation of gene functions, are described. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex models using both emulators and history matching is shown to be a powerful technique that can greatly aid the study of a large class of systems biology models. It both provides insight into model behaviour

Parameter Estimations and Optimal Design of Simple Step-Stress Model for Gamma Dual Weibull Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamdy Mohamed Salem

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper considers life-testing experiments and how it is effected by stress factors: namely temperature, electricity loads, cycling rate and pressure. A major type of accelerated life tests is a step-stress model that allows the experimenter to increase stress levels more than normal use during the experiment to see the failure items. The test items are assumed to follow Gamma Dual Weibull distribution. Different methods for estimating the parameters are discussed. These include Maximum Likelihood Estimations and Confidence Interval Estimations which is based on asymptotic normality generate narrow intervals to the unknown distribution parameters with high probability. MathCAD (2001 program is used to illustrate the optimal time procedure through numerical examples.

State and parameter estimation in nonlinear systems as an optimal tracking problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creveling, Daniel R.; Gill, Philip E.; Abarbanel, Henry D.I.

2008-01-01

In verifying and validating models of nonlinear processes it is important to incorporate information from observations in an efficient manner. Using the idea of synchronization of nonlinear dynamical systems, we present a framework for connecting a data signal with a model in a way that minimizes the required coupling yet allows the estimation of unknown parameters in the model. The need to evaluate unknown parameters in models of nonlinear physical, biophysical, and engineering systems occurs throughout the development of phenomenological or reduced models of dynamics. Our approach builds on existing work that uses synchronization as a tool for parameter estimation. We address some of the critical issues in that work and provide a practical framework for finding an accurate solution. In particular, we show the equivalence of this problem to that of tracking within an optimal control framework. This equivalence allows the application of powerful numerical methods that provide robust practical tools for model development and validation

Bayesian nonlinear structural FE model and seismic input identification for damage assessment of civil structures

Science.gov (United States)

Astroza, Rodrigo; Ebrahimian, Hamed; Li, Yong; Conte, Joel P.

2017-09-01

A methodology is proposed to update mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures subjected to unknown input excitation. The approach allows to jointly estimate unknown time-invariant model parameters of a nonlinear FE model of the structure and the unknown time histories of input excitations using spatially-sparse output response measurements recorded during an earthquake event. The unscented Kalman filter, which circumvents the computation of FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown model parameters and unknown input excitations by using a deterministic sampling approach, is employed as the estimation tool. The use of measurement data obtained from arrays of heterogeneous sensors, including accelerometers, displacement sensors, and strain gauges is investigated. Based on the estimated FE model parameters and input excitations, the updated nonlinear FE model can be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and assess damage in the structure. Numerically simulated response data of a three-dimensional 4-story 2-by-1 bay steel frame structure with six unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation, and a three-dimensional 5-story 2-by-1 bay reinforced concrete frame structure with nine unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. The results of the validation studies show the excellent performance and robustness of the proposed algorithm to jointly estimate unknown FE model parameters and unknown input excitations.

A highly precise frequency-based method for estimating the tension of an inclined cable with unknown boundary conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Lin

2017-11-01

This paper develops a method for precisely determining the tension of an inclined cable with unknown boundary conditions. First, the nonlinear motion equation of an inclined cable is derived, and a numerical model of the motion of the cable is proposed using the finite difference method. The proposed numerical model includes the sag-extensibility, flexural stiffness, inclination angle and rotational stiffness at two ends of the cable. Second, the influence of the dynamic parameters of the cable on its frequencies is discussed in detail, and a method for precisely determining the tension of an inclined cable is proposed based on the derivatives of the eigenvalues of the matrices. Finally, a multiparameter identification method is developed that can simultaneously identify multiple parameters, including the rotational stiffness at two ends. This scheme is applicable to inclined cables with varying sag, varying flexural stiffness and unknown boundary conditions. Numerical examples indicate that the method provides good precision. Because the parameters of cables other than tension (e.g., the flexural stiffness and rotational stiffness at the ends) are not accurately known in practical engineering, the multiparameter identification method could further improve the accuracy of cable tension measurements.

Three-dimensional cinematography with control object of unknown shape.

Science.gov (United States)

Dapena, J; Harman, E A; Miller, J A

1982-01-01

A technique for reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) motion which involves a simple filming procedure but allows the deduction of coordinates in large object volumes was developed. Internal camera parameters are calculated from measurements of the film images of two calibrated crosses while external camera parameters are calculated from the film images of points in a control object of unknown shape but at least one known length. The control object, which includes the volume in which the activity is to take place, is formed by a series of poles placed at unknown locations, each carrying two targets. From the internal and external camera parameters, and from locations of the images of point in the films of the two cameras, 3D coordinates of the point can be calculated. Root mean square errors of the three coordinates of points in a large object volume (5m x 5m x 1.5m) were 15 mm, 13 mm, 13 mm and 6 mm, and relative errors in lengths averaged 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

Estimation of Ordinary Differential Equation Parameters Using Constrained Local Polynomial Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, A Adam; Wu, Hulin

2014-10-01

We propose a new method to use a constrained local polynomial regression to estimate the unknown parameters in ordinary differential equation models with a goal of improving the smoothing-based two-stage pseudo-least squares estimate. The equation constraints are derived from the differential equation model and are incorporated into the local polynomial regression in order to estimate the unknown parameters in the differential equation model. We also derive the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator. Our simulation studies show that our new estimator is clearly better than the pseudo-least squares estimator in estimation accuracy with a small price of computational cost. An application example on immune cell kinetics and trafficking for influenza infection further illustrates the benefits of the proposed new method.

Quality assessment for radiological model parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Funtowicz, S.O.

1989-01-01

A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)

Mesoscopic modeling and parameter estimation of a lithium-ion battery based on LiFePO4/graphite

Science.gov (United States)

Jokar, Ali; Désilets, Martin; Lacroix, Marcel; Zaghib, Karim

2018-03-01

A novel numerical model for simulating the behavior of lithium-ion batteries based on LiFePO4(LFP)/graphite is presented. The model is based on the modified Single Particle Model (SPM) coupled to a mesoscopic approach for the LFP electrode. The model comprises one representative spherical particle as the graphite electrode, and N LFP units as the positive electrode. All the SPM equations are retained to model the negative electrode performance. The mesoscopic model rests on non-equilibrium thermodynamic conditions and uses a non-monotonic open circuit potential for each unit. A parameter estimation study is also carried out to identify all the parameters needed for the model. The unknown parameters are the solid diffusion coefficient of the negative electrode (Ds,n), reaction-rate constant of the negative electrode (Kn), negative and positive electrode porosity (εn&εn), initial State-Of-Charge of the negative electrode (SOCn,0), initial partial composition of the LFP units (yk,0), minimum and maximum resistance of the LFP units (Rmin&Rmax), and solution resistance (Rcell). The results show that the mesoscopic model can simulate successfully the electrochemical behavior of lithium-ion batteries at low and high charge/discharge rates. The model also describes adequately the lithiation/delithiation of the LFP particles, however, it is computationally expensive compared to macro-based models.

Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-04-24

We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

Genetic algorithm approach to thin film optical parameters determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jurecka, S.; Jureckova, M.; Muellerova, J.

2003-01-01

Optical parameters of thin film are important for several optical and optoelectronic applications. In this work the genetic algorithm proposed to solve optical parameters of thin film values. The experimental reflectance is modelled by the Forouhi - Bloomer dispersion relations. The refractive index, the extinction coefficient and the film thickness are the unknown parameters in this model. Genetic algorithm use probabilistic examination of promissing areas of the parameter space. It creates a population of solutions based on the reflectance model and then operates on the population to evolve the best solution by using selection, crossover and mutation operators on the population individuals. The implementation of genetic algorithm method and the experimental results are described too (Authors)

Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

2016-12-01

Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete

ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

2010-03-01

Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and

α-Decomposition for estimating parameters in common cause failure modeling based on causal inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Xiaoyu; Yamaguchi, Akira; Takata, Takashi

2013-01-01

The traditional α-factor model has focused on the occurrence frequencies of common cause failure (CCF) events. Global α-factors in the α-factor model are defined as fractions of failure probability for particular groups of components. However, there are unknown uncertainties in the CCF parameters estimation for the scarcity of available failure data. Joint distributions of CCF parameters are actually determined by a set of possible causes, which are characterized by CCF-triggering abilities and occurrence frequencies. In the present paper, the process of α-decomposition (Kelly-CCF method) is developed to learn about sources of uncertainty in CCF parameter estimation. Moreover, it aims to evaluate CCF risk significances of different causes, which are named as decomposed α-factors. Firstly, a Hybrid Bayesian Network is adopted to reveal the relationship between potential causes and failures. Secondly, because all potential causes have different occurrence frequencies and abilities to trigger dependent failures or independent failures, a regression model is provided and proved by conditional probability. Global α-factors are expressed by explanatory variables (causes’ occurrence frequencies) and parameters (decomposed α-factors). At last, an example is provided to illustrate the process of hierarchical Bayesian inference for the α-decomposition process. This study shows that the α-decomposition method can integrate failure information from cause, component and system level. It can parameterize the CCF risk significance of possible causes and can update probability distributions of global α-factors. Besides, it can provide a reliable way to evaluate uncertainty sources and reduce the uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. It is recommended to build databases including CCF parameters and corresponding causes’ occurrence frequency of each targeted system

The influence of model parameters on catchment-response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.

2002-01-01

This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)

On parameter estimation in deformable models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

1998-01-01

Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

Typical parameters of the plasma chemical similarity in non-isothermal reactive plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gundermann, S.; Jacobs, H.; Miethke, F.; Rutsher, A.; Wagner, H.E.

1996-01-01

The substance of physical similarity principles is contained in parameters which govern the comparison of different realizations of a model device. Because similarity parameters for non-isothermal plasma chemical reactors are unknown to a great extent, an analysis of relevant equations is given together with some experimental results. Modelling of the reactor and experimental results for the ozone synthesis are presented

Identifying an unknown function in a parabolic equation with overspecified data via He's variational iteration method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dehghan, Mehdi; Tatari, Mehdi

2008-01-01

In this research, the He's variational iteration technique is used for computing an unknown time-dependent parameter in an inverse quasilinear parabolic partial differential equation. Parabolic partial differential equations with overspecified data play a crucial role in applied mathematics and physics, as they appear in various engineering models. The He's variational iteration method is an analytical procedure for finding solutions of differential equations, is based on the use of Lagrange multipliers for identification of an optimal value of a parameter in a functional. To show the efficiency of the new approach, several test problems are presented for one-, two- and three-dimensional cases

N-grams Based Supervised Machine Learning Model for Mobile Agent Platform Protection against Unknown Malicious Mobile Agents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pallavi Bagga

2017-12-01

Full Text Available From many past years, the detection of unknown malicious mobile agents before they invade the Mobile Agent Platform has been the subject of much challenging activity. The ever-growing threat of malicious agents calls for techniques for automated malicious agent detection. In this context, the machine learning (ML methods are acknowledged more effective than the Signature-based and Behavior-based detection methods. Therefore, in this paper, the prime contribution has been made to detect the unknown malicious mobile agents based on n-gram features and supervised ML approach, which has not been done so far in the sphere of the Mobile Agents System (MAS security. To carry out the study, the n-grams ranging from 3 to 9 are extracted from a dataset containing 40 malicious and 40 non-malicious mobile agents. Subsequently, the classification is performed using different classifiers. A nested 5-fold cross validation scheme is employed in order to avoid the biasing in the selection of optimal parameters of classifier. The observations of extensive experiments demonstrate that the work done in this paper is suitable for the task of unknown malicious mobile agent detection in a Mobile Agent Environment, and also adds the ML in the interest list of researchers dealing with MAS security.

Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2012-12-01

In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

2018-02-01

Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

Modulating Function-Based Method for Parameter and Source Estimation of Partial Differential Equations

KAUST Repository

Asiri, Sharefa M.

2017-01-01

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are commonly used to model complex systems that arise for example in biology, engineering, chemistry, and elsewhere. The parameters (or coefficients) and the source of PDE models are often unknown

Iterative methods for distributed parameter estimation in parabolic PDE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vogel, C.R. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Wade, J.G. [Bowling Green State Univ., OH (United States)

1994-12-31

The goal of the work presented is the development of effective iterative techniques for large-scale inverse or parameter estimation problems. In this extended abstract, a detailed description of the mathematical framework in which the authors view these problem is presented, followed by an outline of the ideas and algorithms developed. Distributed parameter estimation problems often arise in mathematical modeling with partial differential equations. They can be viewed as inverse problems; the `forward problem` is that of using the fully specified model to predict the behavior of the system. The inverse or parameter estimation problem is: given the form of the model and some observed data from the system being modeled, determine the unknown parameters of the model. These problems are of great practical and mathematical interest, and the development of efficient computational algorithms is an active area of study.

Chaos Synchronization Based on Unknown Input Proportional Multiple-Integral Fuzzy Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Youssef

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an unknown input Proportional Multiple-Integral Observer (PIO for synchronization of chaotic systems based on Takagi-Sugeno (TS fuzzy chaotic models subject to unmeasurable decision variables and unknown input. In a secure communication configuration, this unknown input is regarded as a message encoded in the chaotic system and recovered by the proposed PIO. Both states and outputs of the fuzzy chaotic models are subject to polynomial unknown input with kth derivative zero. Using Lyapunov stability theory, sufficient design conditions for synchronization are proposed. The PIO gains matrices are obtained by resolving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs constraints. Simulation results show through two TS fuzzy chaotic models the validity of the proposed method.

Parameter identification of piezoelectric hysteresis model based on improved artificial bee colony algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Geng; Zhou, Kexin; Zhang, Yeming

2018-04-01

The widely used Bouc-Wen hysteresis model can be utilized to accurately simulate the voltage-displacement curves of piezoelectric actuators. In order to identify the unknown parameters of the Bouc-Wen model, an improved artificial bee colony (IABC) algorithm is proposed in this paper. A guiding strategy for searching the current optimal position of the food source is proposed in the method, which can help balance the local search ability and global exploitation capability. And the formula for the scout bees to search for the food source is modified to increase the convergence speed. Some experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the IABC algorithm. The results show that the identified hysteresis model agreed well with the actual actuator response. Moreover, the identification results were compared with the standard particle swarm optimization (PSO) method, and it can be seen that the search performance in convergence rate of the IABC algorithm is better than that of the standard PSO method.

Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan N Gutenkunst

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

2007-10-01

Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

Dynamic parameter identification of robot arms with servo-controlled electrical motors

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhao-Hui; Senda, Hiroshi

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the issue of dynamic parameter identification of the robot manipulator with servo-controlled electrical motors. An assumption is made that all kinematical parameters, such as link lengths, are known, and only dynamic parameters containing mass, moment of inertia, and their functions need to be identified. First, we derive dynamics of the robot arm with a linear form of the unknown dynamic parameters by taking dynamic characteristics of the motor and servo unit into consideration. Then, we implement the parameter identification approach to identify the unknown parameters with respect to individual link separately. A pseudo-inverse matrix is used for formulation of the parameter identification. The optimal solution is guaranteed in a sense of least-squares of the mean errors. A Direct Drive (DD) SCARA type industrial robot arm AdeptOne is used as an application example of the parameter identification. Simulations and experiments for both open loop and close loop controls are carried out. Comparison of the results confirms the correctness and usefulness of the parameter identification and the derived dynamic model.

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

2017-02-01

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations

CERN Document Server

Bishwal, Jaya P N

2008-01-01

Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations and stochastic partial differential equations is the science, art and technology of modelling complex phenomena and making beautiful decisions. The subject has attracted researchers from several areas of mathematics and other related fields like economics and finance. This volume presents the estimation of the unknown parameters in the corresponding continuous models based on continuous and discrete observations and examines extensively maximum likelihood, minimum contrast and Bayesian methods. Useful because of the current availability of high frequency data is the study of refined asymptotic properties of several estimators when the observation time length is large and the observation time interval is small. Also space time white noise driven models, useful for spatial data, and more sophisticated non-Markovian and non-semimartingale models like fractional diffusions that model the long memory phenomena are examined in this volume.

Dynamic modelling and adaptive robust tracking control of a space robot with two-link flexible manipulators under unknown disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xinxin; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; He, Wei

2018-04-01

In this paper, both the closed-form dynamics and adaptive robust tracking control of a space robot with two-link flexible manipulators under unknown disturbances are developed. The dynamic model of the system is described with assumed modes approach and Lagrangian method. The flexible manipulators are represented as Euler-Bernoulli beams. Based on singular perturbation technique, the displacements/joint angles and flexible modes are modelled as slow and fast variables, respectively. A sliding mode control is designed for trajectories tracking of the slow subsystem under unknown but bounded disturbances, and an adaptive sliding mode control is derived for slow subsystem under unknown slowly time-varying disturbances. An optimal linear quadratic regulator method is proposed for the fast subsystem to damp out the vibrations of the flexible manipulators. Theoretical analysis validates the stability of the proposed composite controller. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the performance of the closed-loop flexible space robot system.

Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

2010-01-01

The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

A Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm With Dictionary Parameter Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Badiu, Mihai Alin; Fleury, Bernard Henri

2014-01-01

This paper concerns sparse decomposition of a noisy signal into atoms which are specified by unknown continuous-valued parameters. An example could be estimation of the model order, frequencies and amplitudes of a superposition of complex sinusoids. The common approach is to reduce the continuous...

Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

1996-01-01

We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lian Jun; Xing Lei

2004-01-01

Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

Parameter and state estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Creveling, Daniel R.

This thesis is concerned with the problem of state and parameter estimation in nonlinear systems. The need to evaluate unknown parameters in models of nonlinear physical, biophysical and engineering systems occurs throughout the development of phenomenological or reduced models of dynamics. When verifying and validating these models, it is important to incorporate information from observations in an efficient manner. Using the idea of synchronization of nonlinear dynamical systems, this thesis develops a framework for presenting data to a candidate model of a physical process in a way that makes efficient use of the measured data while allowing for estimation of the unknown parameters in the model. The approach presented here builds on existing work that uses synchronization as a tool for parameter estimation. Some critical issues of stability in that work are addressed and a practical framework is developed for overcoming these difficulties. The central issue is the choice of coupling strength between the model and data. If the coupling is too strong, the model will reproduce the measured data regardless of the adequacy of the model or correctness of the parameters. If the coupling is too weak, nonlinearities in the dynamics could lead to complex dynamics rendering any cost function comparing the model to the data inadequate for the determination of model parameters. Two methods are introduced which seek to balance the need for coupling with the desire to allow the model to evolve in its natural manner without coupling. One method, 'balanced' synchronization, adds to the synchronization cost function a requirement that the conditional Lyapunov exponents of the model system, conditioned on being driven by the data, remain negative but small in magnitude. Another method allows the coupling between the data and the model to vary in time according to a specific form of differential equation. The coupling dynamics is damped to allow for a tendency toward zero coupling

Parameter estimation and determinability analysis applied to Drosophila gap gene circuits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaeger Johannes

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical modeling of real-life processes often requires the estimation of unknown parameters. Once the parameters are found by means of optimization, it is important to assess the quality of the parameter estimates, especially if parameter values are used to draw biological conclusions from the model. Results In this paper we describe how the quality of parameter estimates can be analyzed. We apply our methodology to assess parameter determinability for gene circuit models of the gap gene network in early Drosophila embryos. Conclusion Our analysis shows that none of the parameters of the considered model can be determined individually with reasonable accuracy due to correlations between parameters. Therefore, the model cannot be used as a tool to infer quantitative regulatory weights. On the other hand, our results show that it is still possible to draw reliable qualitative conclusions on the regulatory topology of the gene network. Moreover, it improves previous analyses of the same model by allowing us to identify those interactions for which qualitative conclusions are reliable, and those for which they are ambiguous.

On Drift Parameter Estimation in Models with Fractional Brownian Motion by Discrete Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuliya Mishura

2014-06-01

Full Text Available We study a problem of an unknown drift parameter estimation in a stochastic differen- tial equation driven by fractional Brownian motion. We represent the likelihood ratio as a function of the observable process. The form of this representation is in general rather complicated. However, in the simplest case it can be simplified and we can discretize it to establish the a. s. convergence of the discretized version of maximum likelihood estimator to the true value of parameter. We also investigate a non-standard estimator of the drift parameter showing further its strong consistency. 

Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

1999-01-01

Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ......Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations......, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model...

Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Suyoung

2018-06-01

This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

Parameter identification of an electrically actuated imperfect microbeam

KAUST Repository

Ruzziconi, Laura

2013-12-01

In this study we consider a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) and focus on extracting analytically the model parameters that describe its non-linear dynamic features accurately. The device consists of a clamped-clamped polysilicon microbeam electrostatically and electrodynamically actuated. The microbeam has imperfections in the geometry, which are related to the microfabrication process, resulting in many unknown and uncertain parameters of the device. The objective of the present paper is to introduce a simple but appropriate model which, despite the inevitable approximations, is able to describe and predict the most relevant aspects of the experimental response in a neighborhood of the first symmetric resonance. The modeling includes the main imperfections in the microstructure. The unknown parameters are settled via parametric identification. The approach is developed in the frequency domain and is based on matching both the frequency values and, remarkably, the frequency response curves, which are considered as the most salient features of the device response. Non-linearities and imperfections considerably complicate the identification process. Via the combined use of linear analysis and non-linear dynamic simulations, a single first symmetric mode reduced-order model is derived. Extensive numerical simulations are performed at increasing values of electrodynamic excitation. Comparison with experimental data shows a satisfactory concurrence of results not only at low electrodynamic voltage, but also at higher ones. This validates the proposed theoretical approach. We highlight its applicability, both in similar case-studies and, more in general, in systems. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Identifyability measures to select the parameters to be estimated in a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silveira, Christian L; Mazutti, Marcio A; Salau, Nina P G

2016-07-08

Process modeling can lead to of advantages such as helping in process control, reducing process costs and product quality improvement. This work proposes a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model composed by seven differential equations with seventeen parameters to represent the process. Also, parameters estimation with a parameters identifyability analysis (PIA) is performed to build an accurate model with optimum parameters. Statistical tests were made to verify the model accuracy with the estimated parameters considering different assumptions. The results have shown that the model assuming substrate inhibition better represents the process. It was also shown that eight from the seventeen original model parameters were nonidentifiable and better results were obtained with the removal of these parameters from the estimation procedure. Therefore, PIA can be useful to estimation procedure, since it may reduce the number of parameters that can be evaluated. Further, PIA improved the model results, showing to be an important procedure to be taken. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:905-917, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Detection of viral sequence fragments of HIV-1 subfamilies yet unknown

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanke Mario

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Methods of determining whether or not any particular HIV-1 sequence stems - completely or in part - from some unknown HIV-1 subtype are important for the design of vaccines and molecular detection systems, as well as for epidemiological monitoring. Nevertheless, a single algorithm only, the Branching Index (BI, has been developed for this task so far. Moving along the genome of a query sequence in a sliding window, the BI computes a ratio quantifying how closely the query sequence clusters with a subtype clade. In its current version, however, the BI does not provide predicted boundaries of unknown fragments. Results We have developed Unknown Subtype Finder (USF, an algorithm based on a probabilistic model, which automatically determines which parts of an input sequence originate from a subtype yet unknown. The underlying model is based on a simple profile hidden Markov model (pHMM for each known subtype and an additional pHMM for an unknown subtype. The emission probabilities of the latter are estimated using the emission frequencies of the known subtypes by means of a (position-wise probabilistic model for the emergence of new subtypes. We have applied USF to SIV and HIV-1 sequences formerly classified as having emerged from an unknown subtype. Moreover, we have evaluated its performance on artificial HIV-1 recombinants and non-recombinant HIV-1 sequences. The results have been compared with the corresponding results of the BI. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that USF is suitable for detecting segments in HIV-1 sequences stemming from yet unknown subtypes. Comparing USF with the BI shows that our algorithm performs as good as the BI or better.

Application of Parallel Hierarchical Matrices in Spatial Statistics and Parameter Identification

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2018-04-20

Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices [Hackbusch 1999] 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro

Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. A. Wasiolek

2003-06-27

This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wasiolek, M. A.

2003-01-01

This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

2006-01-01

A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

Unknown loads affect force production capacity in early phases of bench press throws.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández Davó, J L; Sabido Solana, R; Sarabia Marínm, J M; Sánchez Martos, Á; Moya Ramón, M

2015-10-01

Explosive strength training aims to improve force generation in early phases of movement due to its importance in sport performance. The present study examined the influence of lack of knowledge about the load lifted in explosive parameters during bench press throws. Thirteen healthy young men (22.8±2.0 years) participated in the study. Participants performed bench press throws with three different loads (30, 50 and 70% of 1 repetition maximum) in two different conditions (known and unknown loads). In unknown condition, loads were changed within sets in each repetition and participants did not know the load, whereas in known condition the load did not change within sets and participants had knowledge about the load lifted. Results of repeated-measures ANOVA revealed that unknown conditions involves higher power in the first 30, 50, 100 and 150 ms with the three loads, higher values of ratio of force development in those first instants, and differences in time to reach maximal rate of force development with 50 and 70% of 1 repetition maximum. This study showed that unknown conditions elicit higher values of explosive parameters in early phases of bench press throws, thereby this kind of methodology could be considered in explosive strength training.

Improving filtering and prediction of spatially extended turbulent systems with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

2010-01-01

The filtering and predictive skill for turbulent signals is often limited by the lack of information about the true dynamics of the system and by our inability to resolve the assumed dynamics with sufficiently high resolution using the current computing power. The standard approach is to use a simple yet rich family of constant parameters to account for model errors through parameterization. This approach can have significant skill by fitting the parameters to some statistical feature of the true signal; however in the context of real-time prediction, such a strategy performs poorly when intermittent transitions to instability occur. Alternatively, we need a set of dynamic parameters. One strategy for estimating parameters on the fly is a stochastic parameter estimation through partial observations of the true signal. In this paper, we extend our newly developed stochastic parameter estimation strategy, the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF), to filtering sparsely observed spatially extended turbulent systems which exhibit abrupt stability transition from time to time despite a stable average behavior. For our primary numerical example, we consider a turbulent system of externally forced barotropic Rossby waves with instability introduced through intermittent negative damping. We find high filtering skill of SPEKF applied to this toy model even in the case of very sparse observations (with only 15 out of the 105 grid points observed) and with unspecified external forcing and damping. Additive and multiplicative bias corrections are used to learn the unknown features of the true dynamics from observations. We also present a comprehensive study of predictive skill in the one-mode context including the robustness toward variation of stochastic parameters, imperfect initial conditions and finite ensemble effect. Furthermore, the proposed stochastic parameter estimation scheme applied to the same spatially extended Rossby wave system demonstrates

Parameter identifiability of linear dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, K.; Willems, J. C.

1974-01-01

It is assumed that the system matrices of a stationary linear dynamical system were parametrized by a set of unknown parameters. The question considered here is, when can such a set of unknown parameters be identified from the observed data? Conditions for the local identifiability of a parametrization are derived in three situations: (1) when input/output observations are made, (2) when there exists an unknown feedback matrix in the system and (3) when the system is assumed to be driven by white noise and only output observations are made. Also a sufficient condition for global identifiability is derived.

Application of lumped-parameter models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Kibler, J. F.

1976-01-01

A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation of a novel hybrid redundant robot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yongbo; Wu Huapeng; Handroos, Heikki

2011-01-01

This paper presents a statistical method for the calibration of a redundantly actuated hybrid serial-parallel robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot). The robot under study will be used to carry out welding, machining, and remote handing for the assembly of vacuum vessel of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The robot has ten degrees of freedom (DOF), among which six DOF are contributed by the parallel mechanism and the rest are from the serial mechanism. In this paper, a kinematic error model which involves 54 unknown geometrical error parameters is developed for the proposed robot. Based on this error model, the mean values of the unknown parameters are statistically analyzed and estimated by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The computer simulation is conducted by introducing random geometric errors and measurement poses which represent the corresponding real physical behaviors. The simulation results of the marginal posterior distributions of the estimated model parameters indicate that our method is reliable and robust.

Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

THE ANALYSIS OF PHYSICO-CHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF TWO UNKNOWN FILTER MATERIALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iwona Skoczko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available One of the most important technological processes of water treatment is the process of filtration. Scientists and producers keep on searching new filtration materials which allow for better water purification, are simple in exploitation and do not add chemical substances to the treated water. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to analyze physical and chemical parameters of two unknown porous masses X1 and X2. Such physical parameters as color, granulation, bulk density, the equivalent diameter, the coefficient of uniformity and the porosity of the material were measured and determined. Additionally, the possibility of water treatment was studied during the filtration process in the laboratory tests. Chemical parameters were examined in the water flowing through the mass, such as pH, conductivity and COD-Mn as a general indicator of the content of organic substances in the water. Both studied porous masses were characterized by uniform size of particles. But they were not efficient enough in satisfactory reduction of oxygen consumption. Mass X2 slightly better adsorbed organic substances. It was found that the tested unknown mass filter slightly increase the pH of the filtered water.

Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

CERN Document Server

Li, Han-Xiong

2011-01-01

The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

2017-12-01

The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

On finding and using identifiable parameter combinations in nonlinear dynamic systems biology models and COMBOS: a novel web implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Meshkat, Nicolette; Kuo, Christine Er-zhen; DiStefano, Joseph

2014-01-01

Parameter identifiability problems can plague biomodelers when they reach the quantification stage of development, even for relatively simple models. Structural identifiability (SI) is the primary question, usually understood as knowing which of P unknown biomodel parameters p1,…, pi,…, pP are-and which are not-quantifiable in principle from particular input-output (I-O) biodata. It is not widely appreciated that the same database also can provide quantitative information about the structurally unidentifiable (not quantifiable) subset, in the form of explicit algebraic relationships among unidentifiable pi. Importantly, this is a first step toward finding what else is needed to quantify particular unidentifiable parameters of interest from new I-O experiments. We further develop, implement and exemplify novel algorithms that address and solve the SI problem for a practical class of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems biology models, as a user-friendly and universally-accessible web application (app)-COMBOS. Users provide the structural ODE and output measurement models in one of two standard forms to a remote server via their web browser. COMBOS provides a list of uniquely and non-uniquely SI model parameters, and-importantly-the combinations of parameters not individually SI. If non-uniquely SI, it also provides the maximum number of different solutions, with important practical implications. The behind-the-scenes symbolic differential algebra algorithms are based on computing Gröbner bases of model attributes established after some algebraic transformations, using the computer-algebra system Maxima. COMBOS was developed for facile instructional and research use as well as modeling. We use it in the classroom to illustrate SI analysis; and have simplified complex models of tumor suppressor p53 and hormone regulation, based on explicit computation of parameter combinations. It's illustrated and validated here for models of moderate complexity, with

GEMSFITS: Code package for optimization of geochemical model parameters and inverse modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miron, George D.; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Dmytrieva, Svitlana V.; Wagner, Thomas

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Tool for generating consistent parameters against various types of experiments. • Handles a large number of experimental data and parameters (is parallelized). • Has a graphical interface and can perform statistical analysis on the parameters. • Tested on fitting the standard state Gibbs free energies of aqueous Al species. • Example on fitting interaction parameters of mixing models and thermobarometry. - Abstract: GEMSFITS is a new code package for fitting internally consistent input parameters of GEM (Gibbs Energy Minimization) geochemical–thermodynamic models against various types of experimental or geochemical data, and for performing inverse modeling tasks. It consists of the gemsfit2 (parameter optimizer) and gfshell2 (graphical user interface) programs both accessing a NoSQL database, all developed with flexibility, generality, efficiency, and user friendliness in mind. The parameter optimizer gemsfit2 includes the GEMS3K chemical speciation solver ( (http://gems.web.psi.ch/GEMS3K)), which features a comprehensive suite of non-ideal activity- and equation-of-state models of solution phases (aqueous electrolyte, gas and fluid mixtures, solid solutions, (ad)sorption. The gemsfit2 code uses the robust open-source NLopt library for parameter fitting, which provides a selection between several nonlinear optimization algorithms (global, local, gradient-based), and supports large-scale parallelization. The gemsfit2 code can also perform comprehensive statistical analysis of the fitted parameters (basic statistics, sensitivity, Monte Carlo confidence intervals), thus supporting the user with powerful tools for evaluating the quality of the fits and the physical significance of the model parameters. The gfshell2 code provides menu-driven setup of optimization options (data selection, properties to fit and their constraints, measured properties to compare with computed counterparts, and statistics). The practical utility, efficiency, and

Estimations of parameters in Pareto reliability model in the presence of masked data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, Ammar M.

2003-01-01

Estimations of parameters included in the individual distributions of the life times of system components in a series system are considered in this paper based on masked system life test data. We consider a series system of two independent components each has a Pareto distributed lifetime. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators for the parameters and the values of the reliability of the system's components at a specific time are obtained. Symmetrical triangular prior distributions are assumed for the unknown parameters to be estimated in obtaining the Bayes estimators of these parameters. Large simulation studies are done in order: (i) explain how one can utilize the theoretical results obtained; (ii) compare the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates obtained of the underlying parameters; and (iii) study the influence of the masking level and the sample size on the accuracy of the estimates obtained

Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel

2015-01-01

In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible

Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

2015-03-10

In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Guse

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

2003-01-01

This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification

Zener Diode Compact Model Parameter Extraction Using Xyce-Dakota Optimization.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchheit, Thomas E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilcox, Ian Zachary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandoval, Andrew J [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reza, Shahed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-12-01

This report presents a detailed process for compact model parameter extraction for DC circuit Zener diodes. Following the traditional approach of Zener diode parameter extraction, circuit model representation is defined and then used to capture the different operational regions of a real diode's electrical behavior. The circuit model contains 9 parameters represented by resistors and characteristic diodes as circuit model elements. The process of initial parameter extraction, the identification of parameter values for the circuit model elements, is presented in a way that isolates the dependencies between certain electrical parameters and highlights both the empirical nature of the extraction and portions of the real diode physical behavior which of the parameters are intended to represent. Optimization of the parameters, a necessary part of a robost parameter extraction process, is demonstrated using a 'Xyce-Dakota' workflow, discussed in more detail in the report. Among other realizations during this systematic approach of electrical model parameter extraction, non-physical solutions are possible and can be difficult to avoid because of the interdependencies between the different parameters. The process steps described are fairly general and can be leveraged for other types of semiconductor device model extractions. Also included in the report are recommendations for experiment setups for generating optimum dataset for model extraction and the Parameter Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Zener diodes.

Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

Science.gov (United States)

Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

2013-09-01

The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonglong YAN

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

Seven-parameter statistical model for BRDF in the UV band.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wu, Zhensen; Zou, Xiren; Cao, Yunhua

2012-05-21

A new semi-empirical seven-parameter BRDF model is developed in the UV band using experimentally measured data. The model is based on the five-parameter model of Wu and the fourteen-parameter model of Renhorn and Boreman. Surface scatter, bulk scatter and retro-reflection scatter are considered. An optimizing modeling method, the artificial immune network genetic algorithm, is used to fit the BRDF measurement data over a wide range of incident angles. The calculation time and accuracy of the five- and seven-parameter models are compared. After fixing the seven parameters, the model can well describe scattering data in the UV band.

Modeling metabolic networks in C. glutamicum: a comparison of rate laws in combination with various parameter optimization strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oldiges Marco

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand the dynamic behavior of cellular systems, mathematical modeling is often necessary and comprises three steps: (1 experimental measurement of participating molecules, (2 assignment of rate laws to each reaction, and (3 parameter calibration with respect to the measurements. In each of these steps the modeler is confronted with a plethora of alternative approaches, e. g., the selection of approximative rate laws in step two as specific equations are often unknown, or the choice of an estimation procedure with its specific settings in step three. This overall process with its numerous choices and the mutual influence between them makes it hard to single out the best modeling approach for a given problem. Results We investigate the modeling process using multiple kinetic equations together with various parameter optimization methods for a well-characterized example network, the biosynthesis of valine and leucine in C. glutamicum. For this purpose, we derive seven dynamic models based on generalized mass action, Michaelis-Menten and convenience kinetics as well as the stochastic Langevin equation. In addition, we introduce two modeling approaches for feedback inhibition to the mass action kinetics. The parameters of each model are estimated using eight optimization strategies. To determine the most promising modeling approaches together with the best optimization algorithms, we carry out a two-step benchmark: (1 coarse-grained comparison of the algorithms on all models and (2 fine-grained tuning of the best optimization algorithms and models. To analyze the space of the best parameters found for each model, we apply clustering, variance, and correlation analysis. Conclusion A mixed model based on the convenience rate law and the Michaelis-Menten equation, in which all reactions are assumed to be reversible, is the most suitable deterministic modeling approach followed by a reversible generalized mass action kinetics

Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

2009-01-01

efficient model that can be applied in aero-elastic codes for fast evaluation of the dynamic structural response of wind turbines. The target solutions, utilised for calibration of the lumped-parameter models, are obtained by a coupled finite-element/boundaryelement scheme in the frequency domain......, and the quality of the models are tested in the time and frequency domains. It is found that precise results are achieved by lumped-parameter models with two to four internal degrees of freedom per displacement or rotation of the foundation. Further, coupling between the horizontal sliding and rocking cannot...

Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

1992-04-01

This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

Robot navigation in unknown terrains: Introductory survey of non-heuristic algorithms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rao, N.S.V. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (US); Kareti, S.; Shi, Weimin [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (US). Dept. of Computer Science; Iyengar, S.S. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (US). Dept. of Computer Science

1993-07-01

A formal framework for navigating a robot in a geometric terrain by an unknown set of obstacles is considered. Here the terrain model is not a priori known, but the robot is equipped with a sensor system (vision or touch) employed for the purpose of navigation. The focus is restricted to the non-heuristic algorithms which can be theoretically shown to be correct within a given framework of models for the robot, terrain and sensor system. These formulations, although abstract and simplified compared to real-life scenarios, provide foundations for practical systems by highlighting the underlying critical issues. First, the authors consider the algorithms that are shown to navigate correctly without much consideration given to the performance parameters such as distance traversed, etc. Second, they consider non-heuristic algorithms that guarantee bounds on the distance traversed or the ratio of the distance traversed to the shortest path length (computed if the terrain model is known). Then they consider the navigation of robots with very limited computational capabilities such as finite automata, etc.

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

2003-06-20

This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blok, B.M.

1993-12-01

In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)

Lag synchronization of unknown chaotic delayed Yang-Yang-type fuzzy neural networks with noise perturbation based on adaptive control and parameter identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Yonghui; Yang, Zijiang; Han, Maoan

2009-07-01

This paper considers the lag synchronization (LS) issue of unknown coupled chaotic delayed Yang-Yang-type fuzzy neural networks (YYFCNN) with noise perturbation. Separate research work has been published on the stability of fuzzy neural network and LS issue of unknown coupled chaotic neural networks, as well as its application in secure communication. However, there have not been any studies that integrate the two. Motivated by the achievements from both fields, we explored the benefits of integrating fuzzy logic theories into the study of LS problems and applied the findings to secure communication. Based on adaptive feedback control techniques and suitable parameter identification, several sufficient conditions are developed to guarantee the LS of coupled chaotic delayed YYFCNN with or without noise perturbation. The problem studied in this paper is more general in many aspects. Various problems studied extensively in the literature can be treated as special cases of the findings of this paper, such as complete synchronization (CS), effect of fuzzy logic, and noise perturbation. This paper presents an illustrative example and uses simulated results of this example to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed adaptive scheme. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness of application of the proposed adaptive feedback scheme in secure communication by comparing chaotic masking with fuzziness with some previous studies. Chaotic signal with fuzziness is more complex, which makes unmasking more difficult due to the added fuzzy logic.

Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Engeland

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.W.

1983-01-01

This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Satellite-derived land surface parameters for mesoscale modelling of the Mexico City basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. de Foy

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Mesoscale meteorological modelling is an important tool to help understand air pollution and heat island effects in urban areas. Accurate wind simulations are difficult to obtain in areas of weak synoptic forcing. Local factors have a dominant role in the circulation and include land surface parameters and their interaction with the atmosphere. This paper examines an episode during the MCMA-2003 field campaign held in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA in April of 2003. Because the episode has weak synoptic forcing, there is the potential for the surface heat budget to influence the local meteorology. High resolution satellite observations are used to specify the land use, vegetation fraction, albedo and surface temperature in the MM5 model. Making use of these readily available data leads to improved meteorological simulations in the MCMA, both for the wind circulation patterns and the urban heat island. Replacing values previously obtained from land-use tables with actual measurements removes the number of unknowns in the model and increases the accuracy of the energy budget. In addition to improving the understanding of local meteorology, this sets the stage for the use of advanced urban modules.

Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models in Forestry.

OpenAIRE

Fekedulegn, Desta; Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig; Colbert, Jim J.

1999-01-01

Partial derivatives of the negative exponential, monomolecular, Mitcherlich, Gompertz, logistic, Chapman-Richards, von Bertalanffy, Weibull and the Richard’s nonlinear growth models are presented. The application of these partial derivatives in estimating the model parameters is illustrated. The parameters are estimated using the Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear regression relating top height to age of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) from the Bowmont Norway Spruce Thinnin...

Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony

2014-01-01

Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)

Parameter Optimization for Feature and Hit Generation in a General Unknown Screening Method-Proof of Concept Study Using a Design of Experiment Approach for a High Resolution Mass Spectrometry Procedure after Data Independent Acquisition.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmiger, Marco P; Poetzsch, Michael; Steuer, Andrea E; Kraemer, Thomas

2018-03-06

High resolution mass spectrometry and modern data independent acquisition (DIA) methods enable the creation of general unknown screening (GUS) procedures. However, even when DIA is used, its potential is far from being exploited, because often, the untargeted acquisition is followed by a targeted search. Applying an actual GUS (including untargeted screening) produces an immense amount of data that must be dealt with. An optimization of the parameters regulating the feature detection and hit generation algorithms of the data processing software could significantly reduce the amount of unnecessary data and thereby the workload. Design of experiment (DoE) approaches allow a simultaneous optimization of multiple parameters. In a first step, parameters are evaluated (crucial or noncrucial). Second, crucial parameters are optimized. The aim in this study was to reduce the number of hits, without missing analytes. The obtained parameter settings from the optimization were compared to the standard settings by analyzing a test set of blood samples spiked with 22 relevant analytes as well as 62 authentic forensic cases. The optimization lead to a marked reduction of workload (12.3 to 1.1% and 3.8 to 1.1% hits for the test set and the authentic cases, respectively) while simultaneously increasing the identification rate (68.2 to 86.4% and 68.8 to 88.1%, respectively). This proof of concept study emphasizes the great potential of DoE approaches to master the data overload resulting from modern data independent acquisition methods used for general unknown screening procedures by optimizing software parameters.

Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

2010-01-01

Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M. Wasiolek

2004-01-01

This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. Wasiolek

2004-09-10

This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

Parameters and error of a theoretical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

1986-09-01

We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

A firefly algorithm approach for determining the parameters characteristics of solar cell

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed LOUZAZNI

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A metaheuristic algorithm is proposed to describe the characteristics of solar cell. The I-V characteristics of solar cell present double nonlinearity in the presence of exponential and in the five parameters. Since, these parameters are unknown, it is important to predict these parameters for accurate modelling of I-V and P-V curves of solar cell. Moreover, firefly algorithm has attracted the intention to optimize the non-linear and complex systems, based on the flashing patterns and behaviour of firefly’s swarm. Besides, the proposed constrained objective function is derived from the current-voltage curve. Using the experimental current and voltage of commercial RTC France Company mono-crystalline silicon solar cell single diode at 33°C and 1000W/m² to predict the unknown parameters. The statistical errors are calculated to verify the accuracy of the results. The obtained results are compared with experimental data and other reported meta-heuristic optimization algorithms. In the end, the theoretical results confirm the validity and reliability of firefly algorithm in estimation the optimal parameters of the solar cell.

Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

Modelling hydrodynamic parameters to predict flow assisted corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poulson, B.; Greenwell, B.; Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.

1992-01-01

During the past 15 years, flow assisted corrosion has been a worldwide problem in the power generating industry. The phenomena is complex and depends on environment, material composition, and hydrodynamic factors. Recently, modeling of flow assisted corrosion has become a subject of great importance. A key part of this effort is modeling the hydrodynamic aspects of this issue. This paper examines which hydrodynamic parameter should be used to correlate the occurrence and rate of flow assisted corrosion with physically meaningful parameters, discusses ways of measuring the relevant hydrodynamic parameter, and describes how the hydrodynamic data is incorporated into the predictive model

Identification of metabolic system parameters using global optimization methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gatzke Edward P

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The problem of estimating the parameters of dynamic models of complex biological systems from time series data is becoming increasingly important. Methods and results Particular consideration is given to metabolic systems that are formulated as Generalized Mass Action (GMA models. The estimation problem is posed as a global optimization task, for which novel techniques can be applied to determine the best set of parameter values given the measured responses of the biological system. The challenge is that this task is nonconvex. Nonetheless, deterministic optimization techniques can be used to find a global solution that best reconciles the model parameters and measurements. Specifically, the paper employs branch-and-bound principles to identify the best set of model parameters from observed time course data and illustrates this method with an existing model of the fermentation pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. This is a relatively simple yet representative system with five dependent states and a total of 19 unknown parameters of which the values are to be determined. Conclusion The efficacy of the branch-and-reduce algorithm is illustrated by the S. cerevisiae example. The method described in this paper is likely to be widely applicable in the dynamic modeling of metabolic networks.

WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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Page 1 ... corresponding single-parameter Winkler model presented in this work. Keywords: Heterogeneous subgrade, Reissner's simplified continuum, Shear interaction, Simplified continuum, Winkler ... model in practical applications and its long time familiarity among practical engineers, its usage has endured to this date ...

Identification of fractional-order systems with unknown initial values and structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Wei, E-mail: duwei0203@gmail.com [Key Laboratory of Advanced Control and Optimization for Chemical Processes, Ministry of Education, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237 (China); Miao, Qingying, E-mail: qymiao@sjtu.edu.cn [School of Continuing Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030 (China); Tong, Le, E-mail: tongle0328@gmail.com [Faculty of Applied Science and Textiles, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong (China); Tang, Yang [Key Laboratory of Advanced Control and Optimization for Chemical Processes, Ministry of Education, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237 (China)

2017-06-21

In this paper, the identification problem of fractional-order chaotic systems is proposed and investigated via an evolutionary optimization approach. Different with other studies to date, this research focuses on the identification of fractional-order chaotic systems with not only unknown orders and parameters, but also unknown initial values and structure. A group of fractional-order chaotic systems, i.e., Lorenz, Lü, Chen, Rössler, Arneodo and Volta chaotic systems, are set as the system candidate pool. The identification problem of fractional-order chaotic systems in this research belongs to mixed integer nonlinear optimization in essence. A powerful evolutionary algorithm called composite differential evolution (CoDE) is introduced for the identification problem presented in this paper. Extensive experiments are carried out to show that the fractional-order chaotic systems with unknown initial values and structure can be successfully identified by means of CoDE. - Highlights: • Unknown initial values and structure are introduced in the identification of fractional-order chaotic systems; • Only a series of output is utilized in the identification of fractional-order chaotic systems; • CoDE is used for the identification problem and the results are satisfactory when compared with other DE variants.

Insight into model mechanisms through automatic parameter fitting: a new methodological framework for model development.

Science.gov (United States)

Tøndel, Kristin; Niederer, Steven A; Land, Sander; Smith, Nicolas P

2014-05-20

Striking a balance between the degree of model complexity and parameter identifiability, while still producing biologically feasible simulations using modelling is a major challenge in computational biology. While these two elements of model development are closely coupled, parameter fitting from measured data and analysis of model mechanisms have traditionally been performed separately and sequentially. This process produces potential mismatches between model and data complexities that can compromise the ability of computational frameworks to reveal mechanistic insights or predict new behaviour. In this study we address this issue by presenting a generic framework for combined model parameterisation, comparison of model alternatives and analysis of model mechanisms. The presented methodology is based on a combination of multivariate metamodelling (statistical approximation of the input-output relationships of deterministic models) and a systematic zooming into biologically feasible regions of the parameter space by iterative generation of new experimental designs and look-up of simulations in the proximity of the measured data. The parameter fitting pipeline includes an implicit sensitivity analysis and analysis of parameter identifiability, making it suitable for testing hypotheses for model reduction. Using this approach, under-constrained model parameters, as well as the coupling between parameters within the model are identified. The methodology is demonstrated by refitting the parameters of a published model of cardiac cellular mechanics using a combination of measured data and synthetic data from an alternative model of the same system. Using this approach, reduced models with simplified expressions for the tropomyosin/crossbridge kinetics were found by identification of model components that can be omitted without affecting the fit to the parameterising data. Our analysis revealed that model parameters could be constrained to a standard deviation of on

Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Zhijun

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

2016-04-01

We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

2010-01-01

Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

Adaptive Algorithm For Identification Of The Environment Parameters In Contact Tasks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuneski, Atanasko; Babunski, Darko [Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, ' St. Cyril and Methodius' University, Skopje (Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of)

2003-07-01

An adaptive algorithm for identification of the unknown parameters of the dynamic environment in contact tasks is proposed in this paper using the augmented least square estimation method. An approximate environment digital simulator for the continuous environment dynamics is derived, i.e. a discrete transfer function which has the approximately the same characteristics as the continuous environment dynamics is found. For solving this task a method named hold equivalence is used. The general model of the environment dynamics is given and the case when the environment dynamics is represented by second order models with parameter uncertainties is considered. (Author)

Adaptive Algorithm For Identification Of The Environment Parameters In Contact Tasks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuneski, Atanasko; Babunski, Darko

2003-01-01

An adaptive algorithm for identification of the unknown parameters of the dynamic environment in contact tasks is proposed in this paper using the augmented least square estimation method. An approximate environment digital simulator for the continuous environment dynamics is derived, i.e. a discrete transfer function which has the approximately the same characteristics as the continuous environment dynamics is found. For solving this task a method named hold equivalence is used. The general model of the environment dynamics is given and the case when the environment dynamics is represented by second order models with parameter uncertainties is considered. (Author)

Economic outcomes of maintenance gefitinib for locally advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer with unknown EGFR mutations: a semi-Markov model analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohui Zeng

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Maintenance gefitinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS compared with placebo in patients from eastern Asian with locally advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC after four chemotherapeutic cycles (21 days per cycle of first-line platinum-based combination chemotherapy without disease progression. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maintenance gefitinib therapy after four chemotherapeutic cycle's stand first-line platinum-based chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC with unknown EGFR mutations, from a Chinese health care system perspective. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A semi-Markov model was designed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of the maintenance gefitinib treatment. Two-parametric Weibull and Log-logistic distribution were fitted to PFS and overall survival curves independently. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of the model designed. The model base-case analysis suggested that maintenance gefitinib would increase benefits in a 1, 3, 6 or 10-year time horizon, with incremental $184,829, $19,214, $19,328, and $21,308 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained, respectively. The most sensitive influential variable in the cost-effectiveness analysis was utility of PFS plus rash, followed by utility of PFS plus diarrhoea, utility of progressed disease, price of gefitinib, cost of follow-up treatment in progressed survival state, and utility of PFS on oral therapy. The price of gefitinib is the most significant parameter that could reduce the incremental cost per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost-effective probability of maintenance gefitinib was zero under the willingness-to-pay (WTP threshold of $16,349 (3 × per-capita gross domestic product of China. The sensitivity analyses all suggested that the model was robust. CONCLUSIONS: Maintenance gefitinib

Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

Modeling of load lifting process with unknown center of gravity position

Science.gov (United States)

Kamanin, Y. N.; Zhukov, M. I.; Panichkin, A. V.; Redelin, R. A.

2018-03-01

The article proposes a new type of lifting beams that allows one to lift loads where the position of the center of gravity is unknown beforehand. The benefit of implementing this type of traverse is confirmed by the high demand for this product from the industrial enterprises and lack of their availability on the market. In conducted studies, the main kinematic and dynamic dependencies of the load lifting process with an unknown position of the center of gravity were described allowing for design and verification calculations of the traverse with flexible slings and an adjustable bail to be carried out. The obtained results can be useful to engineers and employees of enterprises engaged in the design and manufacturing of the lifting equipment and scientists doing research in “Carrying and lifting machines”.

Lumped-parameters equivalent circuit for condenser microphones modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Esteves, Josué; Rufer, Libor; Ekeom, Didace; Basrour, Skandar

2017-10-01

This work presents a lumped parameters equivalent model of condenser microphone based on analogies between acoustic, mechanical, fluidic, and electrical domains. Parameters of the model were determined mainly through analytical relations and/or finite element method (FEM) simulations. Special attention was paid to the air gap modeling and to the use of proper boundary condition. Corresponding lumped-parameters were obtained as results of FEM simulations. Because of its simplicity, the model allows a fast simulation and is readily usable for microphone design. This work shows the validation of the equivalent circuit on three real cases of capacitive microphones, including both traditional and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems structures. In all cases, it has been demonstrated that the sensitivity and other related data obtained from the equivalent circuit are in very good agreement with available measurement data.

ADMIT: a toolbox for guaranteed model invalidation, estimation and qualitative-quantitative modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Streif, Stefan; Savchenko, Anton; Rumschinski, Philipp; Borchers, Steffen; Findeisen, Rolf

2012-05-01

Often competing hypotheses for biochemical networks exist in the form of different mathematical models with unknown parameters. Considering available experimental data, it is then desired to reject model hypotheses that are inconsistent with the data, or to estimate the unknown parameters. However, these tasks are complicated because experimental data are typically sparse, uncertain, and are frequently only available in form of qualitative if-then observations. ADMIT (Analysis, Design and Model Invalidation Toolbox) is a MatLab(TM)-based tool for guaranteed model invalidation, state and parameter estimation. The toolbox allows the integration of quantitative measurement data, a priori knowledge of parameters and states, and qualitative information on the dynamic or steady-state behavior. A constraint satisfaction problem is automatically generated and algorithms are implemented for solving the desired estimation, invalidation or analysis tasks. The implemented methods built on convex relaxation and optimization and therefore provide guaranteed estimation results and certificates for invalidity. ADMIT, tutorials and illustrative examples are available free of charge for non-commercial use at http://ifatwww.et.uni-magdeburg.de/syst/ADMIT/

Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-06-01

Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

Science.gov (United States)

Winkel, Brian

2011-01-01

We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

2015-01-01

Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indrajeet Chaubey

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A. J. Smith

2003-01-01

This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

Parameter Identification for Salinity in a Quasilinear Thermodynamic System of Sea Ice

OpenAIRE

Wei Lv; Xiaojiao Li; Enmin Feng

2014-01-01

This study is intended to provide a parameter identification method to determine salinity of sea ice by temperature and salinity observations. A quasilinear thermodynamic system of sea ice with unknown salinity is described and its property is proved. Then, a parameter identification model is established and the existence of its optimal solution is discussed. The salinity profile is calculated by the temperature and salinity data, which were measured at Nella Fjord around Zhongshan Station, A...

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K. Rautenstrauch

2004-09-10

This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

K. Rautenstrauch

2004-01-01

This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

Parameter Identification and Synchronization of Uncertain Chaotic Systems Based on Sliding Mode Observer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-lian Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The synchronization of nonlinear uncertain chaotic systems is investigated. We propose a sliding mode state observer scheme which combines the sliding mode control with observer theory and apply it into the uncertain chaotic system with unknown parameters and bounded interference. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, the constraints of synchronization and proof are given. This method not only can realize the synchronization of chaotic systems, but also identify the unknown parameters and obtain the correct parameter estimation. Otherwise, the synchronization of chaotic systems with unknown parameters and bounded external disturbances is robust by the design of the sliding surface. Finally, numerical simulations on Liu chaotic system with unknown parameters and disturbances are carried out. Simulation results show that this synchronization and parameter identification has been totally achieved and the effectiveness is verified very well.

Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

2016-04-01

The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

Science.gov (United States)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

2012-12-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

Parameter estimation for stiff deterministic dynamical systems via ensemble Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Andrea; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

2014-01-01

A commonly encountered problem in numerous areas of applications is to estimate the unknown coefficients of a dynamical system from direct or indirect observations at discrete times of some of the components of the state vector. A related problem is to estimate unobserved components of the state. An egregious example of such a problem is provided by metabolic models, in which the numerous model parameters and the concentrations of the metabolites in tissue are to be estimated from concentration data in the blood. A popular method for addressing similar questions in stochastic and turbulent dynamics is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a particle-based filtering method that generalizes classical Kalman filtering. In this work, we adapt the EnKF algorithm for deterministic systems in which the numerical approximation error is interpreted as a stochastic drift with variance based on classical error estimates of numerical integrators. This approach, which is particularly suitable for stiff systems where the stiffness may depend on the parameters, allows us to effectively exploit the parallel nature of particle methods. Moreover, we demonstrate how spatial prior information about the state vector, which helps the stability of the computed solution, can be incorporated into the filter. The viability of the approach is shown by computed examples, including a metabolic system modeling an ischemic episode in skeletal muscle, with a high number of unknown parameters. (paper)

Hybrid artificial bee colony algorithm for parameter optimization of five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qianqian; Zhao, Jing; Gong, Yong; Hao, Qun; Peng, Zhong

2017-11-20

A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm inspired by the best-so-far solution and bacterial chemotaxis was introduced to optimize the parameters of the five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model. To verify the performance of the hybrid ABC algorithm, we measured BRDF of three kinds of samples and simulated the undetermined parameters of the five-parameter BRDF model using the hybrid ABC algorithm and the genetic algorithm, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid ABC algorithm outperforms the genetic algorithm in convergence speed, accuracy, and time efficiency under the same conditions.

SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Houska

Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Savenije, H.; Bastidas, L. A.

2015-04-01

This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is analyzed in a step by step manner. This is done measuring differences between simulations of a model under different realizations of input forcings. Algorithms are then suggested to estimate model complexity. Model complexities of the two model structures, SAC-SMA (Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting) and its simplified version SIXPAR (Six Parameter Model), are computed on resampled input data sets from basins that span across the continental US. The model complexities for SIXPAR are estimated for various parameter ranges. It is shown that complexity of SIXPAR increases with lower storage capacity and/or higher recession coefficients. Thus it is argued that a conceptually simple model structure, such as SIXPAR, can be more complex than an intuitively more complex model structure, such as SAC-SMA for certain parameter ranges. We therefore contend that magnitudes of feasible model parameters influence the complexity of the model selection problem just as parameter dimensionality (number of parameters) does and that parameter dimensionality is an incomplete indicator of stability of hydrological model selection and prediction problems.

Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-meng Song

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

2010-01-01

A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

Parameter identification technique for uncertain chaotic systems using state feedback and steady-state analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaher, Ashraf A

2008-03-01

A technique is introduced for identifying uncertain and/or unknown parameters of chaotic dynamical systems via using simple state feedback. The proposed technique is based on bringing the system into a stable steady state and then solving for the unknown parameters using a simple algebraic method that requires access to the complete or partial states of the system depending on the dynamical model of the chaotic system. The choice of the state feedback is optimized in terms of practicality and causality via employing a single feedback signal and tuning the feedback gain to ensure both stability and identifiability. The case when only a single scalar time series of one of the states is available is also considered and it is demonstrated that a synchronization-based state observer can be augmented to the state feedback to address this problem. A detailed case study using the Lorenz system is used to exemplify the suggested technique. In addition, both the Rössler and Chua systems are examined as possible candidates for utilizing the proposed methodology when partial identification of the unknown parameters is considered. Finally, the dependence of the proposed technique on the structure of the chaotic dynamical model and the operating conditions is discussed and its advantages and limitations are highlighted via comparing it with other methods reported in the literature.

Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

2009-04-01

Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang

2018-03-01

The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.

Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

2014-01-01

ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

Digital Modulation Identification Model Using Wavelet Transform and Statistical Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Prakasam

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A generalized modulation identification scheme is developed and presented. With the help of this scheme, the automatic modulation classification and recognition of wireless communication signals with a priori unknown parameters are possible effectively. The special features of the procedure are the possibility to adapt it dynamically to nearly all modulation types, and the capability to identify. The developed scheme based on wavelet transform and statistical parameters has been used to identify M-ary PSK, M-ary QAM, GMSK, and M-ary FSK modulations. The simulated results show that the correct modulation identification is possible to a lower bound of 5 dB. The identification percentage has been analyzed based on the confusion matrix. When SNR is above 5 dB, the probability of detection of the proposed system is more than 0.968. The performance of the proposed scheme has been compared with existing methods and found it will identify all digital modulation schemes with low SNR.

Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

Science.gov (United States)

Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1986-01-01

Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns

OpenAIRE

Ugo Panizza

2014-01-01

This paper summarizes the main findings of the literature on the relationship between financial and economic development (the known knowns), points to directions for future research (the known unknowns), and then speculates on the third Rumsfeldian category. The known knowns section organizes the empirical literature on finance and growth into three strands: (i) the traditional literature which established the link between finance and growth; (ii) the new literature which qualified some of th...

Use of stochastic methods for robust parameter extraction from impedance spectra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bueschel, Paul; Troeltzsch, Uwe; Kanoun, Olfa

2011-01-01

The fitting of impedance models to measured data is an essential step in impedance spectroscopy (IS). Due to often complicated, nonlinear models, big number of parameters, large search spaces and presence of noise, an automated determination of the unknown parameters is a challenging task. The stronger the nonlinear behavior of a model, the weaker is the convergence of the corresponding regression and the probability to trap into local minima increases during parameter extraction. For fast measurements or automatic measurement systems these problems became the limiting factors of use. We compared the usability of stochastic algorithms, evolution, simulated annealing and particle filter with the widely used tool LEVM for parameter extraction for IS. The comparison is based on one reference model by J.R. Macdonald and a battery model used with noisy measurement data. The results show different performances of the algorithms for these two problems depending on the search space and the model used for optimization. The obtained results by particle filter were the best for both models. This method delivers the most reliable result for both cases even for the ill posed battery model.

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Power systems could be at risk when the power-grid collapse accident occurs. As a clean and renewable resource, wind energy plays an increasingly vital role in reducing air pollution and wind power generation becomes an important way to produce electrical power. Therefore, accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting are in need. In this research, a novel short-term wind speed forecasting portfolio has been proposed using the following three procedures: (I data preprocessing: apart from the regular normalization preprocessing, the data are preprocessed through empirical model decomposition (EMD, which reduces the effect of noise on the wind speed data; (II artificially intelligent parameter optimization introduction: the unknown parameters in the support vector machine (SVM model are optimized by the cuckoo search (CS algorithm; (III parameter optimization approach modification: an improved parameter optimization approach, called the SDCS model, based on the CS algorithm and the steepest descent (SD method is proposed. The comparison results show that the simple and effective portfolio EMD-SDCS-SVM produces promising predictions and has better performance than the individual forecasting components, with very small root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors.

Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, G.; Wu, S.

2017-12-01

We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles

2004-01-01

Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A. J.

2004-01-01

This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

Mean--variance portfolio optimization when means and covariances are unknown

OpenAIRE

Tze Leung Lai; Haipeng Xing; Zehao Chen

2011-01-01

Markowitz's celebrated mean--variance portfolio optimization theory assumes that the means and covariances of the underlying asset returns are known. In practice, they are unknown and have to be estimated from historical data. Plugging the estimates into the efficient frontier that assumes known parameters has led to portfolios that may perform poorly and have counter-intuitive asset allocation weights; this has been referred to as the "Markowitz optimization enigma." After reviewing differen...

Content-Based Multimedia Retrieval in the Presence of Unknown User Preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beecks, Christian; Assent, Ira; Seidl, Thomas

2011-01-01

Content-based multimedia retrieval requires an appropriate similarity model which reflects user preferences. When these preferences are unknown or when the structure of the data collection is unclear, retrieving the most preferable objects the user has in mind is challenging, as the notion...... address the problem of content-based multimedia retrieval in the presence of unknown user preferences. Our idea consists in performing content-based retrieval by considering all possibilities in a family of similarity models simultaneously. To this end, we propose a novel content-based retrieval approach...

Coding with partially hidden Markov models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

1995-01-01

Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

A dynamical approach in exploring the unknown mass in the Solar system using pulsar timing arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Y. J.; Lee, K. J.; Caballero, R. N.

2018-04-01

The error in the Solar system ephemeris will lead to dipolar correlations in the residuals of pulsar timing array for widely separated pulsars. In this paper, we utilize such correlated signals, and construct a Bayesian data-analysis framework to detect the unknown mass in the Solar system and to measure the orbital parameters. The algorithm is designed to calculate the waveform of the induced pulsar-timing residuals due to the unmodelled objects following the Keplerian orbits in the Solar system. The algorithm incorporates a Bayesian-analysis suit used to simultaneously analyse the pulsar-timing data of multiple pulsars to search for coherent waveforms, evaluate the detection significance of unknown objects, and to measure their parameters. When the object is not detectable, our algorithm can be used to place upper limits on the mass. The algorithm is verified using simulated data sets, and cross-checked with analytical calculations. We also investigate the capability of future pulsar-timing-array experiments in detecting the unknown objects. We expect that the future pulsar-timing data can limit the unknown massive objects in the Solar system to be lighter than 10-11-10-12 M⊙, or measure the mass of Jovian system to a fractional precision of 10-8-10-9.

Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

1991-01-01

A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

Biological parameters for lung cancer in mathematical models of carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacob, P.; Jacob, V.

2003-01-01

Applications of the two-step model of carcinogenesis with clonal expansion (TSCE) to lung cancer data are reviewed, including those on atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, British doctors, Colorado Plateau miners, and Chinese tin miners. Different sets of identifiable model parameters are used in the literature. The parameter set which could be determined with the lowest uncertainty consists of the net proliferation rate gamma of intermediate cells, the hazard h 55 at an intermediate age, and the hazard H? at an asymptotically large age. Also, the values of these three parameters obtained in the various studies are more consistent than other identifiable combinations of the biological parameters. Based on representative results for these three parameters, implications for the biological parameters in the TSCE model are derived. (author)

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Bastidas

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

Science.gov (United States)

Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

2018-05-01

Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

Modelling of Biometric Identification System with Given Parameters Using Colored Petri Nets

Science.gov (United States)

Petrosyan, G.; Ter-Vardanyan, L.; Gaboutchian, A.

2017-05-01

Biometric identification systems use given parameters and function on the basis of Colored Petri Nets as a modelling language developed for systems in which communication, synchronization and distributed resources play an important role. Colored Petri Nets combine the strengths of Classical Petri Nets with the power of a high-level programming language. Coloured Petri Nets have both, formal intuitive and graphical presentations. Graphical CPN model consists of a set of interacting modules which include a network of places, transitions and arcs. Mathematical representation has a well-defined syntax and semantics, as well as defines system behavioural properties. One of the best known features used in biometric is the human finger print pattern. During the last decade other human features have become of interest, such as iris-based or face recognition. The objective of this paper is to introduce the fundamental concepts of Petri Nets in relation to tooth shape analysis. Biometric identification systems functioning has two phases: data enrollment phase and identification phase. During the data enrollment phase images of teeth are added to database. This record contains enrollment data as a noisy version of the biometrical data corresponding to the individual. During the identification phase an unknown individual is observed again and is compared to the enrollment data in the database and then system estimates the individual. The purpose of modeling biometric identification system by means of Petri Nets is to reveal the following aspects of the functioning model: the efficiency of the model, behavior of the model, mistakes and accidents in the model, feasibility of the model simplification or substitution of its separate components for more effective components without interfering system functioning. The results of biometric identification system modeling and evaluating are presented and discussed.

A three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model with data assimilation: Model development, sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Daosheng; Cao, Anzhou; Zhang, Jicai; Fan, Daidu; Liu, Yongzhi; Zhang, Yue

2018-06-01

Based on the theory of inverse problems, a three-dimensional sigma-coordinate cohesive sediment transport model with the adjoint data assimilation is developed. In this model, the physical processes of cohesive sediment transport, including deposition, erosion and advection-diffusion, are parameterized by corresponding model parameters. These parameters are usually poorly known and have traditionally been assigned empirically. By assimilating observations into the model, the model parameters can be estimated using the adjoint method; meanwhile, the data misfit between model results and observations can be decreased. The model developed in this work contains numerous parameters; therefore, it is necessary to investigate the parameter sensitivity of the model, which is assessed by calculating a relative sensitivity function and the gradient of the cost function with respect to each parameter. The results of parameter sensitivity analysis indicate that the model is sensitive to the initial conditions, inflow open boundary conditions, suspended sediment settling velocity and resuspension rate, while the model is insensitive to horizontal and vertical diffusivity coefficients. A detailed explanation of the pattern of sensitivity analysis is also given. In ideal twin experiments, constant parameters are estimated by assimilating 'pseudo' observations. The results show that the sensitive parameters are estimated more easily than the insensitive parameters. The conclusions of this work can provide guidance for the practical applications of this model to simulate sediment transport in the study area.

Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

1990-01-01

In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....

Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

2000-01-01

Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A. J. Smith

2004-09-09

This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. Wasiolek

2006-06-05

This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M. Wasiolek

2006-01-01

This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

ADMIT: a toolbox for guaranteed model invalidation, estimation and qualitative–quantitative modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Streif, Stefan; Savchenko, Anton; Rumschinski, Philipp; Borchers, Steffen; Findeisen, Rolf

2012-01-01

Summary: Often competing hypotheses for biochemical networks exist in the form of different mathematical models with unknown parameters. Considering available experimental data, it is then desired to reject model hypotheses that are inconsistent with the data, or to estimate the unknown parameters. However, these tasks are complicated because experimental data are typically sparse, uncertain, and are frequently only available in form of qualitative if–then observations. ADMIT (Analysis, Design and Model Invalidation Toolbox) is a MatLabTM-based tool for guaranteed model invalidation, state and parameter estimation. The toolbox allows the integration of quantitative measurement data, a priori knowledge of parameters and states, and qualitative information on the dynamic or steady-state behavior. A constraint satisfaction problem is automatically generated and algorithms are implemented for solving the desired estimation, invalidation or analysis tasks. The implemented methods built on convex relaxation and optimization and therefore provide guaranteed estimation results and certificates for invalidity. Availability: ADMIT, tutorials and illustrative examples are available free of charge for non-commercial use at http://ifatwww.et.uni-magdeburg.de/syst/ADMIT/ Contact: stefan.streif@ovgu.de PMID:22451270

On the Predictiveness of Single-Field Inflationary Models

CERN Document Server

Burgess, C.P.; Trott, Michael

2014-01-01

We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for $A_s$, $r$ and $n_s$ are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in prin...

Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

Science.gov (United States)

Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

2017-11-01

Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

Designing towards the unknown

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wilde, Danielle; Underwood, Jenny

2018-01-01

the research potential to far-ranging possibilities. In this article we unpack the motivations driving the PKI project. We present our mixed-methodology, which entangles textile crafts, design interactions and materiality to shape an embodied enquiry. Our research outcomes are procedural and methodological......New materials with new capabilities demand new ways of approaching design. Destabilising existing methods is crucial to develop new methods. Yet, radical destabilisation—where outcomes remain unknown long enough that new discoveries become possible—is not easy in technology design where complex......, to design towards unknown outcomes, using unknown materials. The impossibility of this task is proving as useful as it is disruptive. At its most potent, it is destabilising expectations, aesthetics and processes. Keeping the researchers, collaborators and participants in a state of unknowing, is opening...

Mixed linear-nonlinear fault slip inversion: Bayesian inference of model, weighting, and smoothing parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Fukuda, J.; Johnson, K. M.

2009-12-01

Studies utilizing inversions of geodetic data for the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults typically present the result as a single fault plane and slip distribution. Commonly the geometry of the fault plane is assumed to be known a priori and the data are inverted for slip. However, sometimes there is not strong a priori information on the geometry of the fault that produced the earthquake and the data is not always strong enough to completely resolve the fault geometry. We develop a method to solve for the full posterior probability distribution of fault slip and fault geometry parameters in a Bayesian framework using Monte Carlo methods. The slip inversion problem is particularly challenging because it often involves multiple data sets with unknown relative weights (e.g. InSAR, GPS), model parameters that are related linearly (slip) and nonlinearly (fault geometry) through the theoretical model to surface observations, prior information on model parameters, and a regularization prior to stabilize the inversion. We present the theoretical framework and solution method for a Bayesian inversion that can handle all of these aspects of the problem. The method handles the mixed linear/nonlinear nature of the problem through combination of both analytical least-squares solutions and Monte Carlo methods. We first illustrate and validate the inversion scheme using synthetic data sets. We then apply the method to inversion of geodetic data from the 2003 M6.6 San Simeon, California earthquake. We show that the uncertainty in strike and dip of the fault plane is over 20 degrees. We characterize the uncertainty in the slip estimate with a volume around the mean fault solution in which the slip most likely occurred. Slip likely occurred somewhere in a volume that extends 5-10 km in either direction normal to the fault plane. We implement slip inversions with both traditional, kinematic smoothing constraints on slip and a simple physical condition of uniform stress

Recension: Mao - The Unknown Story

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Søren

2005-01-01

Anmeldelse - kritisk! - til Sveriges førende Kinatidsskrift af Jung Chang & Jon Halliday's sensationelle "Mao - the Unknown Story".......Anmeldelse - kritisk! - til Sveriges førende Kinatidsskrift af Jung Chang & Jon Halliday's sensationelle "Mao - the Unknown Story"....

Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

2013-07-15

Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

2017-06-01

A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

Reflector modelization for neutronic diffusion and parameters identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Argaud, J.P.

1993-04-01

Physical parameters of neutronic diffusion equations can be adjusted to decrease calculations-measurements errors. The reflector being always difficult to modelize, we choose to elaborate a new reflector model and to use the parameters of this model as adjustment coefficients in the identification procedure. Using theoretical results, and also the physical behaviour of neutronic flux solutions, the reflector model consists then in its replacement by boundary conditions for the diffusion equations on the core only. This theoretical result of non-local operator relations leads then to some discrete approximations by taking into account the multiscaled behaviour, on the core-reflector interface, of neutronic diffusion solutions. The resulting model of this approach is then compared with previous reflector modelizations, and first results indicate that this new model gives the same representation of reflector for the core than previous. (author). 12 refs

Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy

Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain. Keywords: Inundation, DEM, Sensitivity analysis, Model coupling, Flooding

On the validity of evolutionary models with site-specific parameters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konrad Scheffler

Full Text Available Evolutionary models that make use of site-specific parameters have recently been criticized on the grounds that parameter estimates obtained under such models can be unreliable and lack theoretical guarantees of convergence. We present a simulation study providing empirical evidence that a simple version of the models in question does exhibit sensible convergence behavior and that additional taxa, despite not being independent of each other, lead to improved parameter estimates. Although it would be desirable to have theoretical guarantees of this, we argue that such guarantees would not be sufficient to justify the use of these models in practice. Instead, we emphasize the importance of taking the variance of parameter estimates into account rather than blindly trusting point estimates - this is standardly done by using the models to construct statistical hypothesis tests, which are then validated empirically via simulation studies.

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-01

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-05

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M. A. Wasiolek

2003-01-01

This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosegaard, Jesper

2004-01-01

Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method tha...

Approximate effect of parameter pseudonoise intensity on rate of convergence for EKF parameter estimators. [Extended Kalman Filter

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Bryon K.; Walker, Bruce K.

1991-01-01

When using parameter estimation methods based on extended Kalman filter (EKF) theory, it is common practice to assume that the unknown parameter values behave like a random process, such as a random walk, in order to guarantee their identifiability by the filter. The present work is the result of an ongoing effort to quantitatively describe the effect that the assumption of a fictitious noise (called pseudonoise) driving the unknown parameter values has on the parameter estimate convergence rate in filter-based parameter estimators. The initial approach is to examine a first-order system described by one state variable with one parameter to be estimated. The intent is to derive analytical results for this simple system that might offer insight into the effect of the pseudonoise assumption for more complex systems. Such results would make it possible to predict the estimator error convergence behavior as a function of the assumed pseudonoise intensity, and this leads to the natural application of the results to the design of filter-based parameter estimators. The results obtained show that the analytical description of the convergence behavior is very difficult.

Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2016-01-01

In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

Recommended direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model parameters for modeling ionized air transport processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swaminathan-Gopalan, Krishnan; Stephani, Kelly A., E-mail: ksteph@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

2016-02-15

A systematic approach for calibrating the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) collision model parameters to achieve consistency in the transport processes is presented. The DSMC collision cross section model parameters are calibrated for high temperature atmospheric conditions by matching the collision integrals from DSMC against ab initio based collision integrals that are currently employed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) high temperature computational fluid dynamics solvers. The DSMC parameter values are computed for the widely used Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) and the Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) models using the collision-specific pairing approach. The recommended best-fit VHS/VSS parameter values are provided over a temperature range of 1000-20 000 K for a thirteen-species ionized air mixture. Use of the VSS model is necessary to achieve consistency in transport processes of ionized gases. The agreement of the VSS model transport properties with the transport properties as determined by the ab initio collision integral fits was found to be within 6% in the entire temperature range, regardless of the composition of the mixture. The recommended model parameter values can be readily applied to any gas mixture involving binary collisional interactions between the chemical species presented for the specified temperature range.

Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

Science.gov (United States)

Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

2016-04-01

Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

SU-E-J-150: Four-Dimensional Cone-Beam CT Algorithm by Extraction of Physical and Motion Parameter of Mobile Targets Retrospective to Image Reconstruction with Motion Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, I; Ahmad, S; Alsbou, N

2015-01-01

Purpose: To develop 4D-cone-beam CT (CBCT) algorithm by motion modeling that extracts actual length, CT numbers level and motion amplitude of a mobile target retrospective to image reconstruction by motion modeling. Methods: The algorithm used three measurable parameters: apparent length and blurred CT number distribution of a mobile target obtained from CBCT images to determine actual length, CT-number value of the stationary target, and motion amplitude. The predictions of this algorithm were tested with mobile targets that with different well-known sizes made from tissue-equivalent gel which was inserted into a thorax phantom. The phantom moved sinusoidally in one-direction to simulate respiratory motion using eight amplitudes ranging 0–20mm. Results: Using this 4D-CBCT algorithm, three unknown parameters were extracted that include: length of the target, CT number level, speed or motion amplitude for the mobile targets retrospective to image reconstruction. The motion algorithms solved for the three unknown parameters using measurable apparent length, CT number level and gradient for a well-defined mobile target obtained from CBCT images. The motion model agreed with measured apparent lengths which were dependent on the actual target length and motion amplitude. The gradient of the CT number distribution of the mobile target is dependent on the stationary CT number level, actual target length and motion amplitude. Motion frequency and phase did not affect the elongation and CT number distribution of the mobile target and could not be determined. Conclusion: A 4D-CBCT motion algorithm was developed to extract three parameters that include actual length, CT number level and motion amplitude or speed of mobile targets directly from reconstructed CBCT images without prior knowledge of the stationary target parameters. This algorithm provides alternative to 4D-CBCT without requirement to motion tracking and sorting of the images into different breathing phases

SU-E-J-150: Four-Dimensional Cone-Beam CT Algorithm by Extraction of Physical and Motion Parameter of Mobile Targets Retrospective to Image Reconstruction with Motion Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ali, I; Ahmad, S [University of Oklahoma Health Sciences, Oklahoma City, OK (United States); Alsbou, N [Ohio Northern University, Ada, OH (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: To develop 4D-cone-beam CT (CBCT) algorithm by motion modeling that extracts actual length, CT numbers level and motion amplitude of a mobile target retrospective to image reconstruction by motion modeling. Methods: The algorithm used three measurable parameters: apparent length and blurred CT number distribution of a mobile target obtained from CBCT images to determine actual length, CT-number value of the stationary target, and motion amplitude. The predictions of this algorithm were tested with mobile targets that with different well-known sizes made from tissue-equivalent gel which was inserted into a thorax phantom. The phantom moved sinusoidally in one-direction to simulate respiratory motion using eight amplitudes ranging 0–20mm. Results: Using this 4D-CBCT algorithm, three unknown parameters were extracted that include: length of the target, CT number level, speed or motion amplitude for the mobile targets retrospective to image reconstruction. The motion algorithms solved for the three unknown parameters using measurable apparent length, CT number level and gradient for a well-defined mobile target obtained from CBCT images. The motion model agreed with measured apparent lengths which were dependent on the actual target length and motion amplitude. The gradient of the CT number distribution of the mobile target is dependent on the stationary CT number level, actual target length and motion amplitude. Motion frequency and phase did not affect the elongation and CT number distribution of the mobile target and could not be determined. Conclusion: A 4D-CBCT motion algorithm was developed to extract three parameters that include actual length, CT number level and motion amplitude or speed of mobile targets directly from reconstructed CBCT images without prior knowledge of the stationary target parameters. This algorithm provides alternative to 4D-CBCT without requirement to motion tracking and sorting of the images into different breathing phases

Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

Science.gov (United States)

Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

2017-06-01

The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

Science.gov (United States)

Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

2015-04-01

The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

2003-01-01

In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

2002-01-01

A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

NONLINEAR PLANT PIECEWISE-CONTINUOUS MODEL MATRIX PARAMETERS ESTIMATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roman L. Leibov

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear plant piecewise-continuous model matrix parameters estimation technique using nonlinear model time responses and random search method. One of piecewise-continuous model application areas is defined. The results of proposed approach application for aircraft turbofan engine piecewisecontinuous model formation are presented

A novel algorithm for fast grasping of unknown objects using C-shape configuration

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Qujiang; Chen, Guangming; Meijer, Jonathan; Wisse, Martijn

2018-02-01

Increasing grasping efficiency is very important for the robots to grasp unknown objects especially subjected to unfamiliar environments. To achieve this, a new algorithm is proposed based on the C-shape configuration. Specifically, the geometric model of the used under-actuated gripper is approximated as a C-shape. To obtain an appropriate graspable position, this C-shape configuration is applied to fit geometric model of an unknown object. The geometric model of unknown object is constructed by using a single-view partial point cloud. To examine the algorithm using simulations, a comparison of the commonly used motion planners is made. The motion planner with the highest number of solved runs, lowest computing time and the shortest path length is chosen to execute grasps found by this grasping algorithm. The simulation results demonstrate that excellent grasping efficiency is achieved by adopting our algorithm. To validate this algorithm, experiment tests are carried out using a UR5 robot arm and an under-actuated gripper. The experimental results show that steady grasping actions are obtained. Hence, this research provides a novel algorithm for fast grasping of unknown objects.

Consistent Parameter and Transfer Function Estimation using Context Free Grammars

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Schulz, Karsten

2017-04-01

This contribution presents a method for the inference of transfer functions for rainfall-runoff models. Here, transfer functions are defined as parametrized (functional) relationships between a set of spatial predictors (e.g. elevation, slope or soil texture) and model parameters. They are ultimately used for estimation of consistent, spatially distributed model parameters from a limited amount of lumped global parameters. Additionally, they provide a straightforward method for parameter extrapolation from one set of basins to another and can even be used to derive parameterizations for multi-scale models [see: Samaniego et al., 2010]. Yet, currently an actual knowledge of the transfer functions is often implicitly assumed. As a matter of fact, for most cases these hypothesized transfer functions can rarely be measured and often remain unknown. Therefore, this contribution presents a general method for the concurrent estimation of the structure of transfer functions and their respective (global) parameters. Note, that by consequence an estimation of the distributed parameters of the rainfall-runoff model is also undertaken. The method combines two steps to achieve this. The first generates different possible transfer functions. The second then estimates the respective global transfer function parameters. The structural estimation of the transfer functions is based on the context free grammar concept. Chomsky first introduced context free grammars in linguistics [Chomsky, 1956]. Since then, they have been widely applied in computer science. But, to the knowledge of the authors, they have so far not been used in hydrology. Therefore, the contribution gives an introduction to context free grammars and shows how they can be constructed and used for the structural inference of transfer functions. This is enabled by new methods from evolutionary computation, such as grammatical evolution [O'Neill, 2001], which make it possible to exploit the constructed grammar as a

A note on modeling of tumor regression for estimation of radiobiological parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhong, Hualiang; Chetty, Indrin

2014-01-01

Purpose: Accurate calculation of radiobiological parameters is crucial to predicting radiation treatment response. Modeling differences may have a significant impact on derived parameters. In this study, the authors have integrated two existing models with kinetic differential equations to formulate a new tumor regression model for estimation of radiobiological parameters for individual patients. Methods: A system of differential equations that characterizes the birth-and-death process of tumor cells in radiation treatment was analytically solved. The solution of this system was used to construct an iterative model (Z-model). The model consists of three parameters: tumor doubling time T d , half-life of dead cells T r , and cell survival fraction SF D under dose D. The Jacobian determinant of this model was proposed as a constraint to optimize the three parameters for six head and neck cancer patients. The derived parameters were compared with those generated from the two existing models: Chvetsov's model (C-model) and Lim's model (L-model). The C-model and L-model were optimized with the parameter T d fixed. Results: With the Jacobian-constrained Z-model, the mean of the optimized cell survival fractions is 0.43 ± 0.08, and the half-life of dead cells averaged over the six patients is 17.5 ± 3.2 days. The parameters T r and SF D optimized with the Z-model differ by 1.2% and 20.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed C-model, and by 32.1% and 112.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed L-model, respectively. Conclusions: The Z-model was analytically constructed from the differential equations of cell populations that describe changes in the number of different tumor cells during the course of radiation treatment. The Jacobian constraints were proposed to optimize the three radiobiological parameters. The generated model and its optimization method may help develop high-quality treatment regimens for individual patients

Adaptive observer for the joint estimation of parameters and input for a coupled wave PDE and infinite dimensional ODE system

KAUST Repository

Belkhatir, Zehor

2016-08-05

This paper deals with joint parameters and input estimation for coupled PDE-ODE system. The system consists of a damped wave equation and an infinite dimensional ODE. This model describes the spatiotemporal hemodynamic response in the brain and the objective is to characterize brain regions using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data. For this reason, we propose an adaptive estimator and prove the asymptotic convergence of the state, the unknown input and the unknown parameters. The proof is based on a Lyapunov approach combined with a priori identifiability assumptions. The performance of the proposed observer is illustrated through some simulation results.

On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

Science.gov (United States)

Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

2018-04-01

Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Zhang

2015-11-01

simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

ℋ- adaptive observer design and parameter identification for a class of nonlinear fractional-order systems

KAUST Repository

Ndoye, Ibrahima

2014-12-01

In this paper, an adaptive observer design with parameter identification for a nonlinear system with external perturbations and unknown parameters is proposed. The states of the nonlinear system are estimated by a nonlinear observer and the unknown parameters are also adapted to their values. Sufficient conditions for the stability of the adaptive observer error dynamics are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Simulation results for chaotic Lorenz systems with unknown parameters in the presence of external perturbations are given to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. © 2014 IEEE.

A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

2017-01-01

The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

Experimental design for estimating unknown groundwater pumping using genetic algorithm and reduced order model

Science.gov (United States)

Ushijima, Timothy T.; Yeh, William W.-G.

2013-10-01

An optimal experimental design algorithm is developed to select locations for a network of observation wells that provide maximum information about unknown groundwater pumping in a confined, anisotropic aquifer. The design uses a maximal information criterion that chooses, among competing designs, the design that maximizes the sum of squared sensitivities while conforming to specified design constraints. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex and contains integer variables necessitating a combinatorial search. Given a realistic large-scale model, the size of the combinatorial search required can make the problem difficult, if not impossible, to solve using traditional mathematical programming techniques. Genetic algorithms (GAs) can be used to perform the global search; however, because a GA requires a large number of calls to a groundwater model, the formulated optimization problem still may be infeasible to solve. As a result, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is applied to the groundwater model to reduce its dimensionality. Then, the information matrix in the full model space can be searched without solving the full model. Results from a small-scale test case show identical optimal solutions among the GA, integer programming, and exhaustive search methods. This demonstrates the GA's ability to determine the optimal solution. In addition, the results show that a GA with POD model reduction is several orders of magnitude faster in finding the optimal solution than a GA using the full model. The proposed experimental design algorithm is applied to a realistic, two-dimensional, large-scale groundwater problem. The GA converged to a solution for this large-scale problem.

Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

CERN Document Server

Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

2002-01-01

We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

Simulation-based Extraction of Key Material Parameters from Atomic Force Microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Alsafi, Huseen; Peninngton, Gray

Models for the atomic force microscopy (AFM) tip and sample interaction contain numerous material parameters that are often poorly known. This is especially true when dealing with novel material systems or when imaging samples that are exposed to complicated interactions with the local environment. In this work we use Monte Carlo methods to extract sample material parameters from the experimental AFM analysis of a test sample. The parameterized theoretical model that we use is based on the Virtual Environment for Dynamic AFM (VEDA) [1]. The extracted material parameters are then compared with the accepted values for our test sample. Using this procedure, we suggest a method that can be used to successfully determine unknown material properties in novel and complicated material systems. We acknowledge Fisher Endowment Grant support from the Jess and Mildred Fisher College of Science and Mathematics,Towson University.

Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. A. Wasiolek

2003-09-24

This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeng-Wen Lin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. M. Kukharonak

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.

Novel prescribed performance neural control of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle with unknown initial errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Bu, Xiangwei; Wu, Xiaoyan; Zhu, Fujing; Huang, Jiaqi; Ma, Zhen; Zhang, Rui

2015-11-01

A novel prescribed performance neural controller with unknown initial errors is addressed for the longitudinal dynamic model of a flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle (FAHV) subject to parametric uncertainties. Different from traditional prescribed performance control (PPC) requiring that the initial errors have to be known accurately, this paper investigates the tracking control without accurate initial errors via exploiting a new performance function. A combined neural back-stepping and minimal learning parameter (MLP) technology is employed for exploring a prescribed performance controller that provides robust tracking of velocity and altitude reference trajectories. The highlight is that the transient performance of velocity and altitude tracking errors is satisfactory and the computational load of neural approximation is low. Finally, numerical simulation results from a nonlinear FAHV model demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed strategy. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Four-parameter model for polarization-resolved rough-surface BRDF.

Science.gov (United States)

Renhorn, Ingmar G E; Hallberg, Tomas; Bergström, David; Boreman, Glenn D

2011-01-17

A modeling procedure is demonstrated, which allows representation of polarization-resolved BRDF data using only four parameters: the real and imaginary parts of an effective refractive index with an added parameter taking grazing incidence absorption into account and an angular-scattering parameter determined from the BRDF measurement of a chosen angle of incidence, preferably close to normal incidence. These parameters allow accurate predictions of s- and p-polarized BRDF for a painted rough surface, over three decades of variation in BRDF magnitude. To characterize any particular surface of interest, the measurements required to determine these four parameters are the directional hemispherical reflectance (DHR) for s- and p-polarized input radiation and the BRDF at a selected angle of incidence. The DHR data describes the angular and polarization dependence, as well as providing the overall normalization constraint. The resulting model conserves energy and fulfills the reciprocity criteria.

Evolving Non-Dominated Parameter Sets for Computational Models from Multiple Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Peter C. R.; Gobet, Fernand

2013-03-01

Creating robust, reproducible and optimal computational models is a key challenge for theorists in many sciences. Psychology and cognitive science face particular challenges as large amounts of data are collected and many models are not amenable to analytical techniques for calculating parameter sets. Particular problems are to locate the full range of acceptable model parameters for a given dataset, and to confirm the consistency of model parameters across different datasets. Resolving these problems will provide a better understanding of the behaviour of computational models, and so support the development of general and robust models. In this article, we address these problems using evolutionary algorithms to develop parameters for computational models against multiple sets of experimental data; in particular, we propose the `speciated non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm' for evolving models in several theories. We discuss the problem of developing a model of categorisation using twenty-nine sets of data and models drawn from four different theories. We find that the evolutionary algorithms generate high quality models, adapted to provide a good fit to all available data.

On the relationship between input parameters in two-mass vocal-fold model with acoustical coupling an signal parameters of the glottal flow

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Hirtum, Annemie; Lopez, Ines; Hirschberg, Abraham; Pelorson, Xavier

2003-01-01

In this paper the sensitivity of the two-mass model with acoustical coupling to the model input-parameters is assessed. The model-output or the glottal volume air flow is characterised by signal-parameters in the time-domain. The influence of changing input-parameters on the signal-parameters is

Approximate Teleportation of an Unknown Atomic-Entangled State with Dissipative Atom-Cavity Resonant Jaynes-Cummings Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LIU Zong-Liang; LI Shao-Hua; CHEN Chang-Yong

2008-01-01

We propose a scheme for approximately and conditionally teleporting an unknown atomic-entangled state in dissipative cavity QED.It is the further development of the scheme of [Phys.Rev.A 69 (2004) 064302],where the cavity mode decay has not been considered and the state teleportated is an unknown atomic state.In this paper,we investigate the influence of the decay on the approximate and conditional teleportation of the unknown atomic-entangled state,which is different from that teleportated in [Phys.Rev.A 69 (2004) 064302] and then give the fidelity of the teleportation,which depends on the cavity mode decay.The scheme may be generalized to not only the teleportation of the cavity-mode-entangled-state by means of a single atom but also the teleportation of the unknown trapped-ion-entangled-state in a linear ion trap.

Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Lars

The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

Oyster Creek cycle 10 nodal model parameter optimization study using PSMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougher, J.D.

1987-01-01

The power shape monitoring system (PSMS) is an on-line core monitoring system that uses a three-dimensional nodal code (NODE-B) to perform nodal power calculations and compute thermal margins. The PSMS contains a parameter optimization function that improves the ability of NODE-B to accurately monitor core power distributions. This functions iterates on the model normalization parameters (albedos and mixing factors) to obtain the best agreement between predicted and measured traversing in-core probe (TIP) reading on a statepoint-by-statepoint basis. Following several statepoint optimization runs, an average set of optimized normalization parameters can be determined and can be implemented into the current or subsequent cycle core model for on-line core monitoring. A statistical analysis of 19 high-power steady-state state-points throughout Oyster Creek cycle 10 operation has shown a consistently poor virgin model performance. The normalization parameters used in the cycle 10 NODE-B model were based on a cycle 8 study, which evaluated only Exxon fuel types. The introduction of General Electric (GE) fuel into cycle 10 (172 assemblies) was a significant fuel/core design change that could have altered the optimum set of normalization parameters. Based on the need to evaluate a potential change in the model normalization parameters for cycle 11 and in an attempt to account for the poor cycle 10 model performance, a parameter optimization study was performed

Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

2003-01-01

can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Science.gov (United States)

Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-05-01

Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Pathiraja

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Metamodel-based inverse method for parameter identification: elastic-plastic damage model

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Changwu; El Hami, Abdelkhalak; Radi, Bouchaïb

2017-04-01

This article proposed a metamodel-based inverse method for material parameter identification and applies it to elastic-plastic damage model parameter identification. An elastic-plastic damage model is presented and implemented in numerical simulation. The metamodel-based inverse method is proposed in order to overcome the disadvantage in computational cost of the inverse method. In the metamodel-based inverse method, a Kriging metamodel is constructed based on the experimental design in order to model the relationship between material parameters and the objective function values in the inverse problem, and then the optimization procedure is executed by the use of a metamodel. The applications of the presented material model and proposed parameter identification method in the standard A 2017-T4 tensile test prove that the presented elastic-plastic damage model is adequate to describe the material's mechanical behaviour and that the proposed metamodel-based inverse method not only enhances the efficiency of parameter identification but also gives reliable results.

Application of Parallel Hierarchical Matrices and Low-Rank Tensors in Spatial Statistics and Parameter Identification

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2018-03-12

Part 1: Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro. Part 2: Low-rank Tucker tensor methods in spatial statistics

House thermal model parameter estimation method for Model Predictive Control applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Leeuwen, Richard Pieter; de Wit, J.B.; Fink, J.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

In this paper we investigate thermal network models with different model orders applied to various Dutch low-energy house types with high and low interior thermal mass and containing floor heating. Parameter estimations are performed by using data from TRNSYS simulations. The paper discusses results

F-18-FDG PET/CT in inflammation of unknown origin : a cost-effectiveness pilot-study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Balink, H.; Tan, S. S.; Veeger, N. J. G. M.; Holleman, F.; van Eck-Smit, B. L. F.; Bennink, R. J.; Verberne, H. J.

Purpose Patients with increased inflammatory parameters, nonspecific signs and symptoms without fever and without a diagnosis after a variety of diagnostic procedures are a diagnostic dilemma and are referred to as having inflammation of unknown origin (IUO). The objective of this pilot study was to

Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

1996-10-01

Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

1996-01-01

Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

Is there any correlation between model-based perfusion parameters and model-free parameters of time-signal intensity curve on dynamic contrast enhanced MRI in breast cancer patients?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yi, Boram; Kang, Doo Kyoung; Kim, Tae Hee [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Dukyong [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Yong Sik; Kim, Ku Sang [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Surgery, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Yim, Hyunee [Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

To find out any correlation between dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) model-based parameters and model-free parameters, and evaluate correlations between perfusion parameters with histologic prognostic factors. Model-based parameters (Ktrans, Kep and Ve) of 102 invasive ductal carcinomas were obtained using DCE-MRI and post-processing software. Correlations between model-based and model-free parameters and between perfusion parameters and histologic prognostic factors were analysed. Mean Kep was significantly higher in cancers showing initial rapid enhancement (P = 0.002) and a delayed washout pattern (P = 0.001). Ve was significantly lower in cancers showing a delayed washout pattern (P = 0.015). Kep significantly correlated with time to peak enhancement (TTP) (ρ = -0.33, P < 0.001) and washout slope (ρ = 0.39, P = 0.002). Ve was significantly correlated with TTP (ρ = 0.33, P = 0.002). Mean Kep was higher in tumours with high nuclear grade (P = 0.017). Mean Ve was lower in tumours with high histologic grade (P = 0.005) and in tumours with negative oestrogen receptor status (P = 0.047). TTP was shorter in tumours with negative oestrogen receptor status (P = 0.037). We could acquire general information about the tumour vascular physiology, interstitial space volume and pathologic prognostic factors by analyzing time-signal intensity curve without a complicated acquisition process for the model-based parameters. (orig.)

Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

Science.gov (United States)

Paulo, C. Rech

2012-06-01

Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2017-01-01

This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonglong Yan

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

2008-03-15

The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

2008-03-01

The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested

A parameter network and model pyramid for managing technical information flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinnock, S.; Hartman, H.A.

1994-01-01

Prototypes of information management tools have been developed that can help communicate the technical basis for nuclear waste disposal to a broad audience of program scientists and engineers, project managers, and informed observers from stakeholder organizations. These tools include system engineering concepts, parameter networks expressed as influence diagrams, associated model hierarchies, and a relational database. These tools are used to express relationships among data-collection parameters, model input parameters, model output parameters, systems requirements, physical elements of a system description, and functional analysis of the contribution of physical elements and their associated parameters in satisfying the system requirements. By organizing parameters, models, physical elements, functions, and requirements in a visually reviewable network and a relational database the severe communication challenges facing participants in the nuclear waste dialog can be addressed. The network identifies the influences that data collected in the field have on measures of repository suitability, providing a visual, traceable map that clarifies the role of data and models in supporting conclusions about repository suitability. The map allows conclusions to be traced directly to the underlying parameters and models. Uncertainty in these underlying elements can be exposed to open review in the context of the effects uncertainty has on judgements about suitability. A parameter network provides a stage upon which an informed social dialog about the technical merits of a nuclear waste repository can be conducted. The basis for such dialog must be that stage, if decisions about repository suitability are to be based on a repository's ability to meet requirements embodied in laws and regulations governing disposal of nuclear wastes

Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, C W [ed.

1984-01-01

This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.W.

1984-01-01

This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

Uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters for structured soils

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, B.; Mohanty, B. P.; McGuire, J. T.

2012-01-01

Successful application of dual permeability models (DPM) to predict contaminant transport is contingent upon measured or inversely estimated soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters. The difficulty in unique identification of parameters for the additional macropore- and matrix-macropore interface regions, and knowledge about requisite experimental data for DPM has not been resolved to date. Therefore, this study quantifies uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters of experimental soil columns with different macropore distributions (single macropore, and low- and high-density multiple macropores). Uncertainty evaluation is conducted using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) and conventional Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms while assuming 10 out of 17 parameters to be uncertain or random. Results indicate that AMCMC resolves parameter correlations and exhibits fast convergence for all DPM parameters while MH displays large posterior correlations for various parameters. This study demonstrates that the choice of parameter sampling algorithms is paramount in obtaining unique DPM parameters when information on covariance structure is lacking, or else additional information on parameter correlations must be supplied to resolve the problem of equifinality of DPM parameters. This study also highlights the placement and significance of matrix-macropore interface in flow experiments of soil columns with different macropore densities. Histograms for certain soil hydraulic parameters display tri-modal characteristics implying that macropores are drained first followed by the interface region and then by pores of the matrix domain in drainage experiments. Results indicate that hydraulic properties and behavior of the matrix-macropore interface is not only a function of saturated hydraulic conductivity of the macroporematrix interface (Ksa) and macropore tortuosity (lf) but also of other parameters of the matrix and macropore domains.

Simultaneous treatment of unspecified heteroskedastic model error distribution and mismeasured covariates for restricted moment models.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

2017-10-01

We develop consistent and efficient estimation of parameters in general regression models with mismeasured covariates. We assume the model error and covariate distributions are unspecified, and the measurement error distribution is a general parametric distribution with unknown variance-covariance. We construct root- n consistent, asymptotically normal and locally efficient estimators using the semiparametric efficient score. We do not estimate any unknown distribution or model error heteroskedasticity. Instead, we form the estimator under possibly incorrect working distribution models for the model error, error-prone covariate, or both. Empirical results demonstrate robustness to different incorrect working models in homoscedastic and heteroskedastic models with error-prone covariates.

Parameter identification based synchronization for a class of chaotic systems with offset vectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Cailian; Feng Gang; Guan Xinping

2004-01-01

Based on a parameter identification scheme, a novel synchronization method is presented for a class of chaotic systems with offset vectors which can be represented by the so-called T-S fuzzy model. It is shown that the slave system can synchronize the master system and the unknown parameters of the master system can be identified simultaneously. The delayed feedback technique is also developed in order to reduce the energy and time required for the identification and synchronization. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

Distribution-centric 3-parameter thermodynamic models of partition gas chromatography.

Science.gov (United States)

Blumberg, Leonid M

2017-03-31

If both parameters (the entropy, ΔS, and the enthalpy, ΔH) of the classic van't Hoff model of dependence of distribution coefficients (K) of analytes on temperature (T) are treated as the temperature-independent constants then the accuracy of the model is known to be insufficient for the needed accuracy of retention time prediction. A more accurate 3-parameter Clarke-Glew model offers a way to treat ΔS and ΔH as functions, ΔS(T) and ΔH(T), of T. A known T-centric construction of these functions is based on relating them to the reference values (ΔS ref and ΔH ref ) corresponding to a predetermined reference temperature (T ref ). Choosing a single T ref for all analytes in a complex sample or in a large database might lead to practically irrelevant values of ΔS ref and ΔH ref for those analytes that have too small or too large retention factors at T ref . Breaking all analytes in several subsets each with its own T ref leads to discontinuities in the analyte parameters. These problems are avoided in the K-centric modeling where ΔS(T) and ΔS(T) and other analyte parameters are described in relation to their values corresponding to a predetermined reference distribution coefficient (K Ref ) - the same for all analytes. In this report, the mathematics of the K-centric modeling are described and the properties of several types of K-centric parameters are discussed. It has been shown that the earlier introduced characteristic parameters of the analyte-column interaction (the characteristic temperature, T char , and the characteristic thermal constant, θ char ) are a special chromatographically convenient case of the K-centric parameters. Transformations of T-centric parameters into K-centric ones and vice-versa as well as the transformations of one set of K-centric parameters into another set and vice-versa are described. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration and LOD/LOQ estimation of a chemiluminescent hybridization assay for residual DNA in recombinant protein drugs expressed in E. coli using a four-parameter logistic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K R; Dipaolo, B; Ji, X

2000-06-01

Calibration is the process of fitting a model based on reference data points (x, y), then using the model to estimate an unknown x based on a new measured response, y. In DNA assay, x is the concentration, and y is the measured signal volume. A four-parameter logistic model was used frequently for calibration of immunoassay when the response is optical density for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or adjusted radioactivity count for radioimmunoassay (RIA). Here, it is shown that the same model or a linearized version of the curve are equally useful for the calibration of a chemiluminescent hybridization assay for residual DNA in recombinant protein drugs and calculation of performance measures of the assay.

Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

2017-01-01

Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charity Robert J.

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they fix three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on fission and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-fission reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-fit IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.

Fuzzy model-based adaptive synchronization of time-delayed chaotic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasegh, Nastaran; Majd, Vahid Johari

2009-01-01

In this paper, fuzzy model-based synchronization of a class of first order chaotic systems described by delayed-differential equations is addressed. To design the fuzzy controller, the chaotic system is modeled by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system considering the properties of the nonlinear part of the system. Assuming that the parameters of the chaotic system are unknown, an adaptive law is derived to estimate these unknown parameters, and the stability of error dynamics is guaranteed by Lyapunov theory. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed adaptive synchronization approach.

Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

2018-02-01

In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

2012-12-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.

Science.gov (United States)

Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey

2012-07-18

Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design-Part I. Model development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, L., E-mail: li.he@ryerson.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Science, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 2K3 (Canada); Huang, G.H. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); College of Urban Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Lu, H.W. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada)

2010-04-15

Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the 'true' ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes.

Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.

1989-01-01

The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)

Estimation of object motion parameters from noisy images.

Science.gov (United States)

Broida, T J; Chellappa, R

1986-01-01

An approach is presented for the estimation of object motion parameters based on a sequence of noisy images. The problem considered is that of a rigid body undergoing unknown rotational and translational motion. The measurement data consists of a sequence of noisy image coordinates of two or more object correspondence points. By modeling the object dynamics as a function of time, estimates of the model parameters (including motion parameters) can be extracted from the data using recursive and/or batch techniques. This permits a desired degree of smoothing to be achieved through the use of an arbitrarily large number of images. Some assumptions regarding object structure are presently made. Results are presented for a recursive estimation procedure: the case considered here is that of a sequence of one dimensional images of a two dimensional object. Thus, the object moves in one transverse dimension, and in depth, preserving the fundamental ambiguity of the central projection image model (loss of depth information). An iterated extended Kalman filter is used for the recursive solution. Noise levels of 5-10 percent of the object image size are used. Approximate Cramer-Rao lower bounds are derived for the model parameter estimates as a function of object trajectory and noise level. This approach may be of use in situations where it is difficult to resolve large numbers of object match points, but relatively long sequences of images (10 to 20 or more) are available.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND MODEL SELECTION FOR INDOOR ENVIRONMENTS BASED ON SPARSE OBSERVATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Dehbi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olufsen, Mette; Ottesen, Johnny T.

2013-01-01

Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities....... Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate...... a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting...

Dynamics of a neuron model in different two-dimensional parameter-spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rech, Paulo C.

2011-01-01

We report some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams numerically obtained for the multi-parameter Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and we show that regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved: for all choice of two parameters, the parameter-space presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a large periodic region. We also show that exist regions close these chaotic region, separated by the comb teeth, organized themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades. - Research highlights: → We report parameter-spaces obtained for the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. → Regardless of the combination of parameters, a typical scenario is preserved. → The scenario presents a comb-shaped chaotic region immersed in a periodic region. → Periodic regions near the chaotic region are in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

The sensitivity of flowline models of tidewater glaciers to parameter uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. M. Enderlin

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Depth-integrated (1-D flowline models have been widely used to simulate fast-flowing tidewater glaciers and predict change because the continuous grounding line tracking, high horizontal resolution, and physically based calving criterion that are essential to realistic modeling of tidewater glaciers can easily be incorporated into the models while maintaining high computational efficiency. As with all models, the values for parameters describing ice rheology and basal friction must be assumed and/or tuned based on observations. For prognostic studies, these parameters are typically tuned so that the glacier matches observed thickness and speeds at an initial state, to which a perturbation is applied. While it is well know that ice flow models are sensitive to these parameters, the sensitivity of tidewater glacier models has not been systematically investigated. Here we investigate the sensitivity of such flowline models of outlet glacier dynamics to uncertainty in three key parameters that influence a glacier's resistive stress components. We find that, within typical observational uncertainty, similar initial (i.e., steady-state glacier configurations can be produced with substantially different combinations of parameter values, leading to differing transient responses after a perturbation is applied. In cases where the glacier is initially grounded near flotation across a basal over-deepening, as typically observed for rapidly changing glaciers, these differences can be dramatic owing to the threshold of stability imposed by the flotation criterion. The simulated transient response is particularly sensitive to the parameterization of ice rheology: differences in ice temperature of ~ 2 °C can determine whether the glaciers thin to flotation and retreat unstably or remain grounded on a marine shoal. Due to the highly non-linear dependence of tidewater glaciers on model parameters, we recommend that their predictions are accompanied by

A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

ℋ- adaptive observer design and parameter identification for a class of nonlinear fractional-order systems

KAUST Repository

Ndoye, Ibrahima; Voos, Holger; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem; Darouach, Mohamed

2014-01-01

In this paper, an adaptive observer design with parameter identification for a nonlinear system with external perturbations and unknown parameters is proposed. The states of the nonlinear system are estimated by a nonlinear observer and the unknown

Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

2005-01-01

Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

On the relationship between input parameters in the two-mass vocal-fold model with acoustical coupling and signal parameters of the glottal flow

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hirtum, van A.; Lopez Arteaga, I.; Hirschberg, A.; Pelorson, X.

2003-01-01

In this paper the sensitivity of the two-mass model with acoustical coupling to the model input-parameters is assessed. The model-output or the glottal volume air flow is characterised by signal-parameters in the time-domain. The influence of changing input-parameters on the signal-parameters is

ShinyKGode: an Interactive Application for ODE Parameter Inference Using Gradient Matching.

Science.gov (United States)

Wandy, Joe; Niu, Mu; Giurghita, Diana; Daly, Rónán; Rogers, Simon; Husmeier, Dirk

2018-02-27

Mathematical modelling based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is widely used to describe the dynamics of biological systems, particularly in systems and pathway biology. Often the kinetic parameters of these ODE systems are unknown and have to be inferred from the data. Approximate parameter inference methods based on gradient matching (which do not require performing computationally expensive numerical integration of the ODEs) have been getting popular in recent years, but many implementations are difficult to run without expert knowledge. Here we introduce ShinyKGode, an interactive web application to perform fast parameter inference on ODEs using gradient matching. ShinyKGode can be used to infer ODE parameters on simulated and observed data using gradient matching. Users can easily load their own models in Systems Biology Markup Language format, and a set of pre-defined ODE benchmark models are provided in the application. Inferred parameters are visualised alongside diagnostic plots to assess convergence. The R package for ShinyKGode can be installed through the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN). Installation instructions, as well as tutorial videos and source code are available at https://joewandy.github.io/shinyKGode. dirk.husmeier@glasgow.ac.uk. None.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

A termination criterion for parameter estimation in stochastic models in systems biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation procedures are a central aspect of modeling approaches in systems biology. They are often computationally expensive, especially when the models take stochasticity into account. Typically parameter estimation involves the iterative optimization of an objective function that describes how well the model fits some measured data with a certain set of parameter values. In order to limit the computational expenses it is therefore important to apply an adequate stopping criterion for the optimization process, so that the optimization continues at least until a reasonable fit is obtained, but not much longer. In the case of stochastic modeling, at least some parameter estimation schemes involve an objective function that is itself a random variable. This means that plain convergence tests are not a priori suitable as stopping criteria. This article suggests a termination criterion suited to optimization problems in parameter estimation arising from stochastic models in systems biology. The termination criterion is developed for optimization algorithms that involve populations of parameter sets, such as particle swarm or evolutionary algorithms. It is based on comparing the variance of the objective function over the whole population of parameter sets with the variance of repeated evaluations of the objective function at the best parameter set. The performance is demonstrated for several different algorithms. To test the termination criterion we choose polynomial test functions as well as systems biology models such as an Immigration-Death model and a bistable genetic toggle switch. The genetic toggle switch is an especially challenging test case as it shows a stochastic switching between two steady states which is qualitatively different from the model behavior in a deterministic model. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design--part I. Model development.

Science.gov (United States)

He, L; Huang, G H; Lu, H W

2010-04-15

Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the "true" ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

Science.gov (United States)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

2004-09-14

This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

2004-01-01

This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters