WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying probability distribution

  1. Superpositions of probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  2. Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

    2011-07-01

    Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

  3. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Andersson

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The problem  addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts  of guessing  a word of a certain  length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations  to a natural language are considered.  The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations  are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses.  Several  kinds of approximations  are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic  sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated  within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions.  For many probability  distributions,  the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion  of guesses needed on average compared to the total number  decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic  expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.

  5. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one is willing to assume Subjective Expected Utility....

  6. The Multivariate Gaussian Probability Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrendt, Peter

    2005-01-01

    This technical report intends to gather information about the multivariate gaussian distribution, that was previously not (at least to my knowledge) to be found in one place and written as a reference manual. Additionally, some useful tips and tricks are collected that may be useful in practical...

  7. Probability distribution and entropy as a measure of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Qiuping A

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between three probability distributions and their maximizable entropy forms is discussed without postulating entropy property. For this purpose, the entropy I is defined as a measure of uncertainty of the probability distribution of a random variable x by a variational relationship dI = d x-bar - dx-bar, a definition underlying the maximization of entropy for corresponding distribution

  8. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  9. Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2006-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how the ...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions.......Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...

  10. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theiler, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Foy, Bernard R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohlberg, Brendt E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Scovel, James C [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  11. Fire Radiative Energy and Biomass Burned Estimation Under Sparse Satellite Sampling Conditions: Using Power Law Probability Distribution Properties of MODIS Fire Radiative Power Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyachandran, S.; Roy, D. P.; Boschetti, L.

    2010-12-01

    Spatially and temporally explicit mapping of the amount of biomass burned by fire is needed to estimate atmospheric emissions of green house gases and aerosols. The instantaneous Fire Radiative Power (FRP) [units: W] is retrieved at active fire detections from mid-infrared wavelength remotely sensed data and can be used to estimate the rate of biomass consumed. Temporal integration of FRP measurements over the duration of the fire provides the Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) [units: J] that has been shown to be linearly related to the total biomass burned [units: g]. However, FRE, and thus biomass burned retrieval, is sensitive to the satellite spatial and temporal sampling of FRP which can be sparse under cloudy conditions and with polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS. In this paper the FRE is derived in a new way as the product of the fire duration and the first moment of the FRP power law probability distribution. MODIS FRP data retrieved over savanna fires in Australia and deforestation fires in Brazil are shown to have power law distributions with different scaling parameters that are related to the fire energy in these two contrasting systems. The FRE derived burned biomass estimates computed using this new method are compared to estimates using the conventional temporal FRP integration method and with literature values. The results of the comparison suggest that the new method may provide more reliable burned biomass estimates under sparse satellite sampling conditions if the fire duration and the power law distribution parameters are characterized a priori.

  12. APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aliev

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.

  13. How to Read Probability Distributions as Statements about Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven A. Frank

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Probability distributions can be read as simple expressions of information. Each continuous probability distribution describes how information changes with magnitude. Once one learns to read a probability distribution as a measurement scale of information, opportunities arise to understand the processes that generate the commonly observed patterns. Probability expressions may be parsed into four components: the dissipation of all information, except the preservation of average values, taken over the measurement scale that relates changes in observed values to changes in information, and the transformation from the underlying scale on which information dissipates to alternative scales on which probability pattern may be expressed. Information invariances set the commonly observed measurement scales and the relations between them. In particular, a measurement scale for information is defined by its invariance to specific transformations of underlying values into measurable outputs. Essentially all common distributions can be understood within this simple framework of information invariance and measurement scale.

  14. An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2009-04-01

    The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a "universal" probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.

  15. Sampling probability distributions of lesions in mammograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looney, P.; Warren, L. M.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.

    2015-03-01

    One approach to image perception studies in mammography using virtual clinical trials involves the insertion of simulated lesions into normal mammograms. To facilitate this, a method has been developed that allows for sampling of lesion positions across the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections in accordance with measured distributions of real lesion locations. 6825 mammograms from our mammography image database were segmented to find the breast outline. The outlines were averaged and smoothed to produce an average outline for each laterality and radiographic projection. Lesions in 3304 mammograms with malignant findings were mapped on to a standardised breast image corresponding to the average breast outline using piecewise affine transforms. A four dimensional probability distribution function was found from the lesion locations in the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections for calcification and noncalcification lesions. Lesion locations sampled from this probability distribution function were mapped on to individual mammograms using a piecewise affine transform which transforms the average outline to the outline of the breast in the mammogram. The four dimensional probability distribution function was validated by comparing it to the two dimensional distributions found by considering each radiographic projection and laterality independently. The correlation of the location of the lesions sampled from the four dimensional probability distribution function across radiographic projections was shown to match the correlation of the locations of the original mapped lesion locations. The current system has been implemented as a web-service on a server using the Python Django framework. The server performs the sampling, performs the mapping and returns the results in a javascript object notation format.

  16. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  17. Constraints on probability distributions of grammatical forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the constraints on probability distribution of grammatical forms within morphological paradigms of Serbian language, where paradigm is specified as a coherent set of elements with defined criteria for inclusion. Thus, for example, in Serbian all feminine nouns that end with the suffix "a" in their nominative singular form belong to the third declension, the declension being a paradigm. The notion of a paradigm could be extended to other criteria as well, hence, we can think of noun cases, irrespective of grammatical number and gender, or noun gender, irrespective of case and grammatical number, also as paradigms. We took the relative entropy as a measure of homogeneity of probability distribution within paradigms. The analysis was performed on 116 morphological paradigms of typical Serbian and for each paradigm the relative entropy has been calculated. The obtained results indicate that for most paradigms the relative entropy values fall within a range of 0.75 - 0.9. Nonhomogeneous distribution of relative entropy values allows for estimating the relative entropy of the morphological system as a whole. This value is 0.69 and can tentatively be taken as an index of stability of the morphological system.

  18. Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    computations of aggregate values. The paper also reports on the experiments with the methods. The work is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. No previous work considers the combination of the aspects of uncertain......Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...

  19. Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Siegfried

    2000-01-01

    Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

  20. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzio, S.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be

  1. Characteristics of service requests and service processes of fire and rescue service dispatch centers: analysis of real world data and the underlying probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Ute; Schimmelpfeng, Katja

    2013-03-01

    A sufficient staffing level in fire and rescue dispatch centers is crucial for saving lives. Therefore, it is important to estimate the expected workload properly. For this purpose, we analyzed whether a dispatch center can be considered as a call center. Current call center publications very often model call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This bases on the underlying assumption of the caller's independent decision to call or not to call. In case of an emergency, however, there are often calls from more than one person reporting the same incident and thus, these calls are not independent. Therefore, this paper focuses on the dependency of calls in a fire and rescue dispatch center. We analyzed and evaluated several distributions in this setting. Results are illustrated using real-world data collected from a typical German dispatch center in Cottbus ("Leitstelle Lausitz"). We identified the Pólya distribution as being superior to the Poisson distribution in describing the call arrival rate and the Weibull distribution to be more suitable than the exponential distribution for interarrival times and service times. However, the commonly used distributions offer acceptable approximations. This is important for estimating a sufficient staffing level in practice using, e.g., the Erlang-C model.

  2. Evidence for Truncated Exponential Probability Distribution of Earthquake Slip

    KAUST Repository

    Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.

    2016-07-13

    Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation-based seismic and tsunami-hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture-specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes.We show the parameters of the best-fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale-dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. © 2016, Seismological Society of America. All rights reserverd.

  3. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    2017-01-01

    provide experimental evidence which corroborates our theoretical results. We conclude that for empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one......Subjective beliefs are elicited routinely in economics experiments. However, such elicitation often suffers from two possible disadvantages. First, beliefs are recovered in the form of a summary statistic, usually the mean, of the underlying latent distribution. Second, recovered beliefs are biased...... significantly due to risk aversion. We characterize an approach for eliciting the entire subjective belief distribution that is minimally biased due to risk aversion. We offer simulated examples to demonstrate the intuition of our approach. We also provide theory to formally characterize our framework. And we...

  4. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  5. Probability evolution method for exit location distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinjie; Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

    2018-03-01

    The exit problem in the framework of the large deviation theory has been a hot topic in the past few decades. The most probable escape path in the weak-noise limit has been clarified by the Freidlin-Wentzell action functional. However, noise in real physical systems cannot be arbitrarily small while noise with finite strength may induce nontrivial phenomena, such as noise-induced shift and noise-induced saddle-point avoidance. Traditional Monte Carlo simulation of noise-induced escape will take exponentially large time as noise approaches zero. The majority of the time is wasted on the uninteresting wandering around the attractors. In this paper, a new method is proposed to decrease the escape simulation time by an exponentially large factor by introducing a series of interfaces and by applying the reinjection on them. This method can be used to calculate the exit location distribution. It is verified by examining two classical examples and is compared with theoretical predictions. The results show that the method performs well for weak noise while may induce certain deviations for large noise. Finally, some possible ways to improve our method are discussed.

  6. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  7. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    S. Kuzio

    2004-01-01

    Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

  8. Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regarding uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses

  9. The probability distribution of extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korolev, V. Yu.; Gorshenin, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher-Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data.

  10. Matrix-exponential distributions in applied probability

    CERN Document Server

    Bladt, Mogens

    2017-01-01

    This book contains an in-depth treatment of matrix-exponential (ME) distributions and their sub-class of phase-type (PH) distributions. Loosely speaking, an ME distribution is obtained through replacing the intensity parameter in an exponential distribution by a matrix. The ME distributions can also be identified as the class of non-negative distributions with rational Laplace transforms. If the matrix has the structure of a sub-intensity matrix for a Markov jump process we obtain a PH distribution which allows for nice probabilistic interpretations facilitating the derivation of exact solutions and closed form formulas. The full potential of ME and PH unfolds in their use in stochastic modelling. Several chapters on generic applications, like renewal theory, random walks and regenerative processes, are included together with some specific examples from queueing theory and insurance risk. We emphasize our intention towards applications by including an extensive treatment on statistical methods for PH distribu...

  11. Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-08-01

    STATEMENT (3l Ihl» Riporl) Approved for Public Release; Distribiition Unlimited vT u.VH SUTiON STATEMENT (ol in, motif el oofnd In Block 20, II...Adjusting Proper Scoring Rule Fractile Subjective Probability Uncertainty Measures ZO. ABSTRACT (Conllnuo an r«v*r*« oido H nocoomtry and

  12. ADVANCES IN DISTRIBUTED OPTIMIZATION USING PROBABILITY COLLECTIVES

    OpenAIRE

    DAVID H. WOLPERT; CHARLIE E. M. STRAUSS; DEV RAJNARAYAN

    2006-01-01

    Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve distributed optimization and control problems. This is done by translating the distributed problem into an iterated game, where each agent's mixed strategy (i.e. its stochastically determined move) sets a different variable of the problem. So the expected value of the objective function of the distributed pr...

  13. Probability distribution of machining center failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia Yazhou; Wang Molin; Jia Zhixin

    1995-01-01

    Through field tracing research for 24 Chinese cutter-changeable CNC machine tools (machining centers) over a period of one year, a database of operation and maintenance for machining centers was built, the failure data was fitted to the Weibull distribution and the exponential distribution, the effectiveness was tested, and the failure distribution pattern of machining centers was found. Finally, the reliability characterizations for machining centers are proposed

  14. Probability distribution of flood flows in Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abida, H.; Ellouze, M.

    2008-05-01

    L (Linear) moments are used in identifying regional flood frequency distributions for different zones Tunisia wide. 1134 site-years of annual maximum stream flow data from a total of 42 stations with an average record length of 27 years are considered. The country is divided into two homogeneous regions (northern and central/southern Tunisia) using a heterogeneity measure, based on the spread of the sample L-moments among the sites in a given region. Then, selection of the corresponding distribution is achieved through goodness-of-fit comparisons in L-moment diagrams and verified using an L moment based regional test that compares observed to theoretical values of L-skewness and L-kurtosis for various candidate distributions. The distributions used, which represent five of the most frequently used distributions in the analysis of hydrologic extreme variables are: (i) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), (ii) Pearson Type III (P3), (iii) Generalized Logistic (GLO), (iv) Generalized Normal (GN), and (v) Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. Spatial trends, with respect to the best-fit flood frequency distribution, are distinguished: Northern Tunisia was shown to be represented by the GNO distribution while the GNO and GEV distributions give the best fit in central/southern Tunisia.

  15. Comparative Descriptive Statistics of Skewed Probability Distributions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fewell, M

    2004-01-01

    ...). Increasingly, OA studies involve simulations of varying levels of sophistication. A feature of all simulations is the use of random variables, and this immediately raises the question of what distribution to employ...

  16. Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    - works with given degree sequence. Here we derive the most probable degree distribution emerging when we distribute stubs (or half-edges) randomly through the nodes of the net- work by keeping fixed the structural entropy. This degree ...

  17. Incorporating Skew into RMS Surface Roughness Probability Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Mark T.; Stahl, H. Philip.

    2013-01-01

    The standard treatment of RMS surface roughness data is the application of a Gaussian probability distribution. This handling of surface roughness ignores the skew present in the surface and overestimates the most probable RMS of the surface, the mode. Using experimental data we confirm the Gaussian distribution overestimates the mode and application of an asymmetric distribution provides a better fit. Implementing the proposed asymmetric distribution into the optical manufacturing process would reduce the polishing time required to meet surface roughness specifications.

  18. Probability distributions in risk management operations

    CERN Document Server

    Artikis, Constantinos

    2015-01-01

    This book is about the formulations, theoretical investigations, and practical applications of new stochastic models for fundamental concepts and operations of the discipline of risk management. It also examines how these models can be useful in the descriptions, measurements, evaluations, and treatments of risks threatening various modern organizations. Moreover, the book makes clear that such stochastic models constitute very strong analytical tools which substantially facilitate strategic thinking and strategic decision making in many significant areas of risk management. In particular the incorporation of fundamental probabilistic concepts such as the sum, minimum, and maximum of a random number of continuous, positive, independent, and identically distributed random variables in the mathematical structure of stochastic models significantly supports the suitability of these models in the developments, investigations, selections, and implementations of proactive and reactive risk management operations. The...

  19. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

    2016-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation

  20. Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

  1. Information-theoretic methods for estimating of complicated probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Zong, Zhi

    2006-01-01

    Mixing up various disciplines frequently produces something that are profound and far-reaching. Cybernetics is such an often-quoted example. Mix of information theory, statistics and computing technology proves to be very useful, which leads to the recent development of information-theory based methods for estimating complicated probability distributions. Estimating probability distribution of a random variable is the fundamental task for quite some fields besides statistics, such as reliability, probabilistic risk analysis (PSA), machine learning, pattern recognization, image processing, neur

  2. Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman [Optimization, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia); Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when α{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

  3. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achi, Godswill U.

    2014-10-01

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φx(u) of Xt we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  4. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)

    2014-10-24

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  5. Fitness Probability Distribution of Bit-Flip Mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicano, Francisco; Sutton, Andrew M; Whitley, L Darrell; Alba, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Bit-flip mutation is a common mutation operator for evolutionary algorithms applied to optimize functions over binary strings. In this paper, we develop results from the theory of landscapes and Krawtchouk polynomials to exactly compute the probability distribution of fitness values of a binary string undergoing uniform bit-flip mutation. We prove that this probability distribution can be expressed as a polynomial in p, the probability of flipping each bit. We analyze these polynomials and provide closed-form expressions for an easy linear problem (Onemax), and an NP-hard problem, MAX-SAT. We also discuss a connection of the results with runtime analysis.

  6. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force magnitude. SARALEES NADARAJAH. School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, ... Radeke et al (2004) has the joint post distribution force (pdf) given by ..... Goddard J D 2004 On entropy estimates of contact forces in static granular assemblies.

  7. Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Keywords. Unit hydrograph; rainfall-runoff; hydrology; genetic algorithms; optimization; probability distribution. 1. Introduction. One of the most common interests of hydrologists is the estimation of direct runoff from a watershed for specified distribution of rainfall. This can be achieved either by a system or a physical approach ...

  8. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Recently, empirical investigations have suggested that the components of contact forces follow the exponential distribution. However, explicit expressions for the probability distribution of the corresponding force magnitude have not been known and only approximations have been used in the literature. In this note, for the ...

  9. Measuring Robustness of Timetables at Stations using a Probability Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex

    infrastructure layouts given a timetable. These two methods provide different precision at the expense of a more complex calculation process. The advanced and more precise method is based on a probability distribution that can describe the expected delay between two trains as a function of the buffer time....... This paper proposes to use the exponential distribution, only taking non-negative delays into account, but any probability distribution can be used. Furthermore, the paper proposes that the calculation parameters are estimated from existing delay data, at a station, to achieve a higher precision. As delay...

  10. Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions

    CERN Document Server

    Thomopoulos, Nick T

    2018-01-01

    This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...

  11. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  12. Family of probability distributions derived from maximal entropy principle with scale invariant restrictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnino, Giorgio; Steinbrecher, György; Cardinali, Alessandro; Sonnino, Alberto; Tlidi, Mustapha

    2013-01-01

    Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing the minimum entropy production and the maximum entropy principle under the scale invariance restrictions. The obtained probability distribution presents a singularity that has immediate physical interpretation in terms of the intermittency models. The derived reference probability distribution function is interpreted as time and ensemble average of the real physical one. A generic family of stochastic processes describing noise-driven intermittency, where the stationary density distribution coincides exactly with the one resulted from entropy maximization, is presented.

  13. VISA-2, Reactor Vessel Failure Probability Under Thermal Shock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonen, F.; Johnson, K.

    1992-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: VISA2 (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis) was developed to estimate the failure probability of nuclear reactor pressure vessels under pressurized thermal shock conditions. The deterministic portion of the code performs heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics calculations for a vessel subjected to a user-specified temperature and pressure transient. The probabilistic analysis performs a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of vessel failure. Parameters such as initial crack size and position, copper and nickel content, fluence, and the fracture toughness values for crack initiation and arrest are treated as random variables. Linear elastic fracture mechanics methods are used to model crack initiation and growth. This includes cladding effects in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics calculations. The simulation procedure treats an entire vessel and recognizes that more than one flaw can exist in a given vessel. The flaw model allows random positioning of the flaw within the vessel wall thickness, and the user can specify either flaw length or length-to-depth aspect ratio for crack initiation and arrest predictions. The flaw size distribution can be adjust on the basis of different inservice inspection techniques and inspection conditions. The toughness simulation model includes a menu of alternative equations for predicting the shift in the reference temperature of the nil-ductility transition. 2 - Method of solution: The solution method uses closed form equations for temperatures, stresses, and stress intensity factors. A polynomial fitting procedure approximates the specified pressure and temperature transient. Failure probabilities are calculated by a Monte Carlo simulation. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of 30 welds. VISA2 models only the belt-line (cylindrical) region of a reactor vessel. The stresses are a function of the radial (through-wall) coordinate only

  14. Comparative analysis through probability distributions of a data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristea, Gabriel; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai

    2018-02-01

    In practice, probability distributions are applied in such diverse fields as risk analysis, reliability engineering, chemical engineering, hydrology, image processing, physics, market research, business and economic research, customer support, medicine, sociology, demography etc. This article highlights important aspects of fitting probability distributions to data and applying the analysis results to make informed decisions. There are a number of statistical methods available which can help us to select the best fitting model. Some of the graphs display both input data and fitted distributions at the same time, as probability density and cumulative distribution. The goodness of fit tests can be used to determine whether a certain distribution is a good fit. The main used idea is to measure the "distance" between the data and the tested distribution, and compare that distance to some threshold values. Calculating the goodness of fit statistics also enables us to order the fitted distributions accordingly to how good they fit to data. This particular feature is very helpful for comparing the fitted models. The paper presents a comparison of most commonly used goodness of fit tests as: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-Squared. A large set of data is analyzed and conclusions are drawn by visualizing the data, comparing multiple fitted distributions and selecting the best model. These graphs should be viewed as an addition to the goodness of fit tests.

  15. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  16. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  17. Parametric Probability Distribution Functions for Axon Diameters of Corpus Callosum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid eSepehrband

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Axon diameter is an important neuroanatomical characteristic of the nervous system that alters in the course of neurological disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Axon diameters vary, even within a fiber bundle, and are not normally distributed. An accurate distribution function is therefore beneficial, either to describe axon diameters that are obtained from a direct measurement technique (e.g., microscopy, or to infer them indirectly (e.g., using diffusion-weighted MRI. The gamma distribution is a common choice for this purpose (particularly for the inferential approach because it resembles the distribution profile of measured axon diameters which has been consistently shown to be non-negative and right-skewed. In this study we compared a wide range of parametric probability distribution functions against empirical data obtained from electron microscopy images. We observed that the gamma distribution fails to accurately describe the main characteristics of the axon diameter distribution, such as location and scale of the mode and the profile of distribution tails. We also found that the generalized extreme value distribution consistently fitted the measured distribution better than other distribution functions. This suggests that there may be distinct subpopulations of axons in the corpus callosum, each with their own distribution profiles. In addition, we observed that several other distributions outperformed the gamma distribution, yet had the same number of unknown parameters; these were the inverse Gaussian, log normal, log logistic and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions.

  18. Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures. #. ZDEN ˇEK P BAŽANT1,∗ and JIA-LIANG LE2. 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University,. 2145 Sheridan Road, CEE/A135, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA. 2Department of Civil Engineering, University ...

  19. 76 FR 15268 - Guidelines for Determining Probability of Causation Under the Energy Employees Occupational...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    ... relative risk (ERR) values and using the 99th percentile of that probability distribution in the... Guidelines for Determining Probability of Causation Under the Energy Employees Occupational Illness... on the rulemaking process, see the ``Public Participation'' heading of the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION...

  20. Quantum Fourier transform, Heisenberg groups and quasi-probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patra, Manas K; Braunstein, Samuel L

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to explore the inherent connection between Heisenberg groups, quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and (quasi-probability) distribution functions. Distribution functions for continuous and finite quantum systems are examined from three perspectives and all of them lead to Weyl-Gabor-Heisenberg groups. The QFT appears as the intertwining operator of two equivalent representations arising out of an automorphism of the group. Distribution functions correspond to certain distinguished sets in the group algebra. The marginal properties of a particular class of distribution functions (Wigner distributions) arise from a class of automorphisms of the group algebra of the Heisenberg group. We then study the reconstruction of the Wigner function from the marginal distributions via inverse Radon transform giving explicit formulae. We consider some applications of our approach to quantum information processing and quantum process tomography.

  1. Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

  2. Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

  3. Stochastic self-propagating star formation with anisotropic probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungwiert, B.; Palous, J.

    1994-07-01

    We present a 2D computer code for stochastic self-propagating star formation (SSPSF) in differentially rotating galaxies. The isotropic probability distribution, used in previous models of Seiden, Gerola and Schulman (Seiden & Schulman, 1990, and references therein), is replaced by an anisotropic one. The motivation is provided by models of expanding large-scale supernova remnants (SNR) in disks with shear (Palous et al. 1990): the distortion of the SNR leads to uneven density distribution along its periphery and, consequently, to uneven distribution of new star forming sites. To model anisotropic SSPSF, we process in two steps: first, we eliminate artificial anisotropies inherent to the technique used by Seiden, Gerola and Schulman and, second, we define the probability ellipse on each star forming site. The anisotropy is characterized by its axes ratio and inclination with respect to the galactic center. We show that anisotropic SSPSF is able to produce highly organized spiral structures. Depending on the character of the probability ellipse, we can obtain continous spiral arms of different length, thickness and pitch angle. The relation of the probability ellipse to rotation curves interstellar medium (ISM) density and metallicity is discussed as well as its variation along the Hubble sequence and van den Bergh's luminosity classification of galaxies. To demonstrate applications, we compare our results with two different classes of galaxies: M 101-type grand-design spirals with open and robust arms and NGC 2841-type flocculent galaxies with thin and tightly wound arms.

  4. Geometry of q-Exponential Family of Probability Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-ichi Amari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Gibbs distribution of statistical physics is an exponential family of probability distributions, which has a mathematical basis of duality in the form of the Legendre transformation. Recent studies of complex systems have found lots of distributions obeying the power law rather than the standard Gibbs type distributions. The Tsallis q-entropy is a typical example capturing such phenomena. We treat the q-Gibbs distribution or the q-exponential family by generalizing the exponential function to the q-family of power functions, which is useful for studying various complex or non-standard physical phenomena. We give a new mathematical structure to the q-exponential family different from those previously given. It has a dually flat geometrical structure derived from the Legendre transformation and the conformal geometry is useful for understanding it. The q-version of the maximum entropy theorem is naturally induced from the q-Pythagorean theorem. We also show that the maximizer of the q-escort distribution is a Bayesian MAP (Maximum A posteriori Probability estimator.

  5. Outage probability of distributed beamforming with co-channel interference

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Liang

    2012-03-01

    In this letter, we consider a distributed beamforming scheme (DBF) in the presence of equal-power co-channel interferers for both amplify-and-forward and decode-and-forward relaying protocols over Rayleigh fading channels. We first derive outage probability expressions for the DBF systems. We then present a performance analysis for a scheme relying on source selection. Numerical results are finally presented to verify our analysis. © 2011 IEEE.

  6. Epi-convergence almost surely, in probability and in distribution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lachout, Petr

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 142, č. 1 (2006), s. 187-214 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/03/1027 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : epi-convergence of functions * random functions * convergence almost surely * convergence in probability * convergence in distribution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.589, year: 2006

  7. Partial Generalized Probability Weighted Moments for Exponentiated Exponential Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neema Mohamed El Haroun

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The generalized probability weighted moments are widely used in hydrology for estimating parameters of flood distributions from complete sample. The method of partial generalized probability weighted moments was used to estimate the parameters of distributions from censored sample. This article offers new method called partial generalized probability weighted moments (PGPWMs for the analysis of censored data. The method of PGPWMs is an extended class from partial generalized probability weighted moments. To illustrate the new method, estimation of the unknown parameters from exponentiated exponential distribution based on doubly censored sample is considered. PGPWMs estimators for right and left censored samples are obtained as special cases.   Simulation study is conducted to investigate performance of estimates for exponentiated exponential distribution. Comparison between estimators is made through simulation via their biases and  mean square errors. An illustration with real data is provided. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"جدول عادي"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  8. Universal Probability Distribution Function for Bursty Transport in Plasma Turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandberg, I.; Benkadda, S.; Garbet, X.; Ropokis, G.; Hizanidis, K.; Castillo-Negrete, D. del

    2009-01-01

    Bursty transport phenomena associated with convective motion present universal statistical characteristics among different physical systems. In this Letter, a stochastic univariate model and the associated probability distribution function for the description of bursty transport in plasma turbulence is presented. The proposed stochastic process recovers the universal distribution of density fluctuations observed in plasma edge of several magnetic confinement devices and the remarkable scaling between their skewness S and kurtosis K. Similar statistical characteristics of variabilities have been also observed in other physical systems that are characterized by convection such as the x-ray fluctuations emitted by the Cygnus X-1 accretion disc plasmas and the sea surface temperature fluctuations.

  9. Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

    2017-01-01

    A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

  10. Changes of Probability Distributions in Tsunami Heights with Fault Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwan-Hyuck; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Park, Yong Sung; Cho, Yong-Sik

    2017-04-01

    This study explored the changes of the probability distribution in tsunami heights along the eastern coastline of the Korea for virtual earthquakes. The results confirmed that the changes of the probability distribution in tsunami heights depending on tsunami fault parameters was found. A statistical model was developed in order to jointly analyse tsunami heights on a variety of events by regarding the functional relationships; the parameters in a Weibull distribution with earthquake characteristics could be estimated, all within a Bayesian regression framework. The proposed model could be effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami risk from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Definitely, the coefficient of determination between the true and estimated values for Weibull distribution parameters were over 90% for both virtual and historical tsunami. Keywords: Tsunami heights, Bayesian model, Regression analysis, Risk analysis Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant from Study on Solitary Wave Run-up for Hazard Mitigation of Coastal Communities against Sea Level Rise Project[No. 20140437] funded by Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion.

  11. Topologically appropriate coordinates for (Vzz, η) joint probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, William E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L.; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P.; Zacate, M. O.

    2016-01-01

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V zz and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the (V zz , η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek’s representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek’s work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  12. Methods for fitting a parametric probability distribution to most probable number data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

    2012-07-02

    Every year hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of samples are collected and analyzed to assess microbial contamination in food and water. The concentration of pathogenic organisms at the end of the production process is low for most commodities, so a highly sensitive screening test is used to determine whether the organism of interest is present in a sample. In some applications, samples that test positive are subjected to quantitation. The most probable number (MPN) technique is a common method to quantify the level of contamination in a sample because it is able to provide estimates at low concentrations. This technique uses a series of dilution count experiments to derive estimates of the concentration of the microorganism of interest. An application for these data is food-safety risk assessment, where the MPN concentration estimates can be fitted to a parametric distribution to summarize the range of potential exposures to the contaminant. Many different methods (e.g., substitution methods, maximum likelihood and regression on order statistics) have been proposed to fit microbial contamination data to a distribution, but the development of these methods rarely considers how the MPN technique influences the choice of distribution function and fitting method. An often overlooked aspect when applying these methods is whether the data represent actual measurements of the average concentration of microorganism per milliliter or the data are real-valued estimates of the average concentration, as is the case with MPN data. In this study, we propose two methods for fitting MPN data to a probability distribution. The first method uses a maximum likelihood estimator that takes average concentration values as the data inputs. The second is a Bayesian latent variable method that uses the counts of the number of positive tubes at each dilution to estimate the parameters of the contamination distribution. The performance of the two fitting methods is compared for two

  13. Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    An, Mark Yuing

    1996-01-01

    This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

  14. Characterizing single-molecule FRET dynamics with probability distribution analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Yusdi; Torella, Joseph P; Kapanidis, Achillefs N

    2010-07-12

    Probability distribution analysis (PDA) is a recently developed statistical tool for predicting the shapes of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) histograms, which allows the identification of single or multiple static molecular species within a single histogram. We used a generalized PDA method to predict the shapes of FRET histograms for molecules interconverting dynamically between multiple states. This method is tested on a series of model systems, including both static DNA fragments and dynamic DNA hairpins. By fitting the shape of this expected distribution to experimental data, the timescale of hairpin conformational fluctuations can be recovered, in good agreement with earlier published results obtained using different techniques. This method is also applied to studying the conformational fluctuations in the unliganded Klenow fragment (KF) of Escherichia coli DNA polymerase I, which allows both confirmation of the consistency of a simple, two-state kinetic model with the observed smFRET distribution of unliganded KF and extraction of a millisecond fluctuation timescale, in good agreement with rates reported elsewhere. We expect this method to be useful in extracting rates from processes exhibiting dynamic FRET, and in hypothesis-testing models of conformational dynamics against experimental data.

  15. Subspace Learning via Local Probability Distribution for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiwu Luo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The computational procedure of hyperspectral image (HSI is extremely complex, not only due to the high dimensional information, but also due to the highly correlated data structure. The need of effective processing and analyzing of HSI has met many difficulties. It has been evidenced that dimensionality reduction has been found to be a powerful tool for high dimensional data analysis. Local Fisher’s liner discriminant analysis (LFDA is an effective method to treat HSI processing. In this paper, a novel approach, called PD-LFDA, is proposed to overcome the weakness of LFDA. PD-LFDA emphasizes the probability distribution (PD in LFDA, where the maximum distance is replaced with local variance for the construction of weight matrix and the class prior probability is applied to compute the affinity matrix. The proposed approach increases the discriminant ability of the transformed features in low dimensional space. Experimental results on Indian Pines 1992 data indicate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the traditional alternatives.

  16. How to model a negligible probability under the WTO sanitary and phytosanitary agreement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Mark R

    2013-06-01

    Since the 1997 EC--Hormones decision, World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Panels have wrestled with the question of what constitutes a negligible risk under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. More recently, the 2010 WTO Australia--Apples Panel focused considerable attention on the appropriate quantitative model for a negligible probability in a risk assessment. The 2006 Australian Import Risk Analysis for Apples from New Zealand translated narrative probability statements into quantitative ranges. The uncertainty about a "negligible" probability was characterized as a uniform distribution with a minimum value of zero and a maximum value of 10(-6) . The Australia - Apples Panel found that the use of this distribution would tend to overestimate the likelihood of "negligible" events and indicated that a triangular distribution with a most probable value of zero and a maximum value of 10⁻⁶ would correct the bias. The Panel observed that the midpoint of the uniform distribution is 5 × 10⁻⁷ but did not consider that the triangular distribution has an expected value of 3.3 × 10⁻⁷. Therefore, if this triangular distribution is the appropriate correction, the magnitude of the bias found by the Panel appears modest. The Panel's detailed critique of the Australian risk assessment, and the conclusions of the WTO Appellate Body about the materiality of flaws found by the Panel, may have important implications for the standard of review for risk assessments under the WTO SPS Agreement. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Joint Probability Distributions for a Class of Non-Markovian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Baule, A.; Friedrich, R.

    2004-01-01

    We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H.C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single time probability distributions to the case of N-time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fr...

  18. Multiscale probability distribution of pressure fluctuations in fluidized beds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghasemi, Fatemeh; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M; Peinke, Joachim

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of flow in fluidized beds, a common chemical reactor, is of much current interest due to its fundamental as well as industrial importance. Experimental data for the successive increments of the pressure fluctuations time series in a fluidized bed are analyzed by computing a multiscale probability density function (PDF) of the increments. The results demonstrate the evolution of the shape of the PDF from the short to long time scales. The deformation of the PDF across time scales may be modeled by the log-normal cascade model. The results are also in contrast to the previously proposed PDFs for the pressure fluctuations that include a Gaussian distribution and a PDF with a power-law tail. To understand better the properties of the pressure fluctuations, we also construct the shuffled and surrogate time series for the data and analyze them with the same method. It turns out that long-range correlations play an important role in the structure of the time series that represent the pressure fluctuation. (paper)

  19. A method for the calculation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1976-01-01

    A method is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems. The method is based on a set of integral equations each one referring to a specific minimal cut set of the system. Each integral equation links the unavailability of a minimal cut set to its failure probability density distribution and to the probability that the minimal cut set is down at the time t under the condition that it was down at time t'(t'<=t). The limitations for the applicability of the method are also discussed. It has been concluded that the method is applicable if the process describing the failure of a minimal cut set is a 'delayed semi-regenerative process'. (Auth.)

  20. Approximating the Finite-Time Ruin Probability under Interest Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, R.C.M.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm to determine both a lower and an upper bound for the finite-time probability of ruin for a risk process with constant interest force. We split the time horizon into smaller intervals of equal length and consider the probability of ruin in case premium income for a time

  1. Ruin Probabilities and Aggregrate Claims Distributions for Shot Noise Cox Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albrecher, H.; Asmussen, Søren

    We consider a risk process Rt where the claim arrival process is a superposition of a homogeneous Poisson process and a Cox process with a Poisson shot noise intensity process, capturing the effect of sudden increases of the claim intensity due to external events. The distribution of the aggregate...... claim size is investigated under these assumptions. For both light-tailed and heavy-tailed claim size distributions, asymptotic estimates for infinite-time and finite-time ruin probabilities are derived. Moreover, we discuss an extension of the model to an adaptive premium rule that is dynamically...

  2. Gas Hydrate Formation Probability Distributions: The Effect of Shear and Comparisons with Nucleation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Eric F; Lim, Vincent W; Metaxas, Peter J; Du, Jianwei; Stanwix, Paul L; Rowland, Darren; Johns, Michael L; Haandrikman, Gert; Crosby, Daniel; Aman, Zachary M

    2018-03-13

    Gas hydrate formation is a stochastic phenomenon of considerable significance for any risk-based approach to flow assurance in the oil and gas industry. In principle, well-established results from nucleation theory offer the prospect of predictive models for hydrate formation probability in industrial production systems. In practice, however, heuristics are relied on when estimating formation risk for a given flowline subcooling or when quantifying kinetic hydrate inhibitor (KHI) performance. Here, we present statistically significant measurements of formation probability distributions for natural gas hydrate systems under shear, which are quantitatively compared with theoretical predictions. Distributions with over 100 points were generated using low-mass, Peltier-cooled pressure cells, cycled in temperature between 40 and -5 °C at up to 2 K·min -1 and analyzed with robust algorithms that automatically identify hydrate formation and initial growth rates from dynamic pressure data. The application of shear had a significant influence on the measured distributions: at 700 rpm mass-transfer limitations were minimal, as demonstrated by the kinetic growth rates observed. The formation probability distributions measured at this shear rate had mean subcoolings consistent with theoretical predictions and steel-hydrate-water contact angles of 14-26°. However, the experimental distributions were substantially wider than predicted, suggesting that phenomena acting on macroscopic length scales are responsible for much of the observed stochastic formation. Performance tests of a KHI provided new insights into how such chemicals can reduce the risk of hydrate blockage in flowlines. Our data demonstrate that the KHI not only reduces the probability of formation (by both shifting and sharpening the distribution) but also reduces hydrate growth rates by a factor of 2.

  3. Probability Distributions of Minkowski Distances between Discrete Random Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroger, Erich; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Minkowski distances are used to indicate similarity of two vectors in an N-dimensional space. How to compute the probability function, the expectation, and the variance for Minkowski distances and the special cases City-block distance and Euclidean distance. Critical values for tests of significance are presented in tables. (SLD)

  4. Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This result indicates that scale-free degree distributions emerge naturally when con- sidering networks ensemble with small structural entropy. The appearance of the power-law degree distribution reflects the tendency of social, technological and es- pecially biological networks toward 'ordering'. This tendency is at work ...

  5. Some explicit expressions for the probability distribution of force ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    96: Art. No. 098001. Tighe B P, Socolar J E S, Schaeffer D G, Mitchener W G, Huber M L 2005 Force distributions in a triangular lattice of rigid bars. Phys. Rev. E 72: Art. No. 031306. Vargas W L, Murcia J C, Palacio L E, Dominguez D M 2003 Fractional diffusion model for force distribution in static granular media. Phys. Rev.

  6. Modified Stieltjes Transform and Generalized Convolutions of Probability Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lev B. Klebanov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The classical Stieltjes transform is modified in such a way as to generalize both Stieltjes and Fourier transforms. This transform allows the introduction of new classes of commutative and non-commutative generalized convolutions. A particular case of such a convolution for degenerate distributions appears to be the Wigner semicircle distribution.

  7. Joint probability distributions for a class of non-Markovian processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baule, A; Friedrich, R

    2005-02-01

    We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H. C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single-time probability distributions to the case of N -time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fractional time derivatives reflecting the non-Markovian character of the process.

  8. The Impact of an Instructional Intervention Designed to Support Development of Stochastic Understanding of Probability Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conant, Darcy Lynn

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic understanding of probability distribution undergirds development of conceptual connections between probability and statistics and supports development of a principled understanding of statistical inference. This study investigated the impact of an instructional course intervention designed to support development of stochastic…

  9. Probability Distribution Function of the Upper Equatorial Pacific Current Speeds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chu, Peter C

    2005-01-01

    ...), constructed from hourly ADCP data (1990-2007) at six stations for the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project satisfies the two-parameter Weibull distribution reasonably well with different characteristics between El Nino and La Nina events...

  10. A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

    1991-01-01

    A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

  11. Sampling Random Bioinformatics Puzzles using Adaptive Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Appel, Emil Vincent; Bork-Jensen, Jette

    2016-01-01

    We present a probabilistic logic program to generate an educational puzzle that introduces the basic principles of next generation sequencing, gene finding and the translation of genes to proteins following the central dogma in biology. In the puzzle, a secret "protein word" must be found by asse...... and the randomness of the generation process, sampling may fail to generate a satisfactory puzzle. To avoid failure we employ a strategy using adaptive probabilities which change in response to previous steps of generative process, thus minimizing the risk of failure....

  12. Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Eric B.; Wilczek, Frank

    1988-01-01

    Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

  13. Percentile estimation using the normal and lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bement, T.R.

    1980-01-01

    Implicitly or explicitly percentile estimation is an important aspect of the analysis of aerial radiometric survey data. Standard deviation maps are produced for quadrangles which are surveyed as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation. These maps show where variables differ from their mean values by more than one, two or three standard deviations. Data may or may not be log-transformed prior to analysis. These maps have specific percentile interpretations only when proper distributional assumptions are met. Monte Carlo results are presented in this paper which show the consequences of estimating percentiles by: (1) assuming normality when the data are really from a lognormal distribution; and (2) assuming lognormality when the data are really from a normal distribution

  14. Evaluation of the probability distribution of intake from a single measurement on a personal air sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchall, A.; Muirhead, C.R.; James, A.C.

    1988-01-01

    An analytical expression has been derived for the k-sum distribution, formed by summing k random variables from a lognormal population. Poisson statistics are used with this distribution to derive distribution of intake when breathing an atmosphere with a constant particle number concentration. Bayesian inference is then used to calculate the posterior probability distribution of concentrations from a given measurement. This is combined with the above intake distribution to give the probability distribution of intake resulting from a single measurement of activity made by an ideal sampler. It is shown that the probability distribution of intake is very dependent on the prior distribution used in Bayes' theorem. The usual prior assumption, that all number concentrations are equally probable, leads to an imbalance in the posterior intake distribution. This can be resolved if a new prior proportional to w -2/3 is used, where w is the expected number of particles collected. (author)

  15. Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu Guanquan; Wang Jinhui

    2012-01-01

    Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

  16. Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The safety factors required to ensure it are still determined empirically, even though they represent much larger and much more uncertain corrections to ... The theory is shown to match the experimentally observed systematic deviations of strength and lifetime histograms of industrial ceramics from the Weibull distribution.

  17. Cosmological constraints from the convergence 1-point probability distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, Kenneth [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Blazek, Jonathan [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Versoix (Switzerland); Honscheid, Klaus [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Huff, Eric [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Melchior, Peter [Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States); Ross, Ashley J. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Suchyta, Eric D. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-06-29

    Here, we examine the cosmological information available from the 1-point probability density function (PDF) of the weak-lensing convergence field, utilizing fast l-picola simulations and a Fisher analysis. We find competitive constraints in the Ωm–σ8 plane from the convergence PDF with 188 arcmin2 pixels compared to the cosmic shear power spectrum with an equivalent number of modes (ℓ < 886). The convergence PDF also partially breaks the degeneracy cosmic shear exhibits in that parameter space. A joint analysis of the convergence PDF and shear 2-point function also reduces the impact of shape measurement systematics, to which the PDF is less susceptible, and improves the total figure of merit by a factor of 2–3, depending on the level of systematics. Finally, we present a correction factor necessary for calculating the unbiased Fisher information from finite differences using a limited number of cosmological simulations.

  18. Research on Energy-Saving Design of Overhead Travelling Crane Camber Based on Probability Load Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Yifei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crane is a mechanical device, used widely to move materials in modern production. It is reported that the energy consumptions of China are at least 5–8 times of other developing countries. Thus, energy consumption becomes an unavoidable topic. There are several reasons influencing the energy loss, and the camber of the girder is the one not to be neglected. In this paper, the problem of the deflections induced by the moving payload in the girder of overhead travelling crane is examined. The evaluation of a camber giving a counterdeflection of the girder is proposed in order to get minimum energy consumptions for trolley to move along a nonstraight support. To this aim, probabilistic payload distributions are considered instead of fixed or rated loads involved in other researches. Taking 50/10 t bridge crane as a research object, the probability loads are determined by analysis of load distribution density functions. According to load distribution, camber design under different probability loads is discussed in detail as well as energy consumptions distribution. The research results provide the design reference of reasonable camber to obtain the least energy consumption for climbing corresponding to different P0; thus energy-saving design can be achieved.

  19. two-level inventory optimization under probability event chain

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . ... Journal of Modeling, Design and Management of Engineering Systems ... It is shown that optimization and coordination of the safety factor lead to inventory cost savings at two sites, especially under large lead time variability and stock ...

  20. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Erdem; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  1. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  2. Probability distributions for first neighbor distances between resonances that belong to two different families

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Difilippo, F.C.

    1994-01-01

    For a mixture of two families of resonances, we found the probability distribution for the distance, as first neighbors, between resonances that belong to different families. Integration of this distribution gives the probability of accidental overlapping of resonances of one isotope by resonances of the other, provided that the resonances of each isotope belong to a single family. (author)

  3. Calculation of ruin probabilities for a dense class of heavy tailed distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bladt, Mogens; Nielsen, Bo Friis; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

    2015-01-01

    of distributions with a slowly varying tail. An example from risk theory, comparing ruin probabilities for a classical risk process with Pareto distributed claim sizes, is presented and exact known ruin probabilities for the Pareto case are compared to the ones obtained by approximating by an infinite...... any such distribution. We prove that formulas from renewal theory, and with a particular attention to ruin probabilities, which are true for common phase-type distributions also hold true for the infinite-dimensional case. We provide algorithms for calculating functionals of interest...... such as the renewal density and the ruin probability. It might be of interest to approximate a given heavy tailed distribution of some other type by a distribution from the class of infinite-dimensional phase-type distributions and to this end we provide a calibration procedure which works for the approximation...

  4. What Determines the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function Under Uncertainty?

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Kilka; Martin Weber

    2001-01-01

    Decision weights are an important component in recent theories of decision making under uncertainty. To better explain these decision weights, a two-stage approach has been proposed: First, the probability of an event is judged and then this probability is transformed by the probability weighting function known from decision making under risk. We extend the two-stage approach by allowing the probability weighting function to depend on the type of uncertainty. Using this more general approach,...

  5. Approximate solution for the reactor neutron probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruby, L.; McSwine, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    Several authors have studied the Kolmogorov equation for a fission-driven chain-reacting system, written in terms of the generating function G(x,y,z,t) where x, y, and z are dummy variables referring to the neutron, delayed neutron precursor, and detector-count populations, n, m, and c, respectively. Pal and Zolotukhin and Mogil'ner have shown that if delayed neutrons are neglected, the solution is approximately negative binomial for the neutron population. Wang and Ruby have shown that if the detector effect is neglected, the solution, including the effect of delayed neutrons, is approximately negative binomial. All of the authors assumed prompt-neutron emission not exceeding two neutrons per fission. An approximate method of separating the detector effect from the statistics of the neutron and precursor populations has been proposed by Ruby. In this weak-coupling limit, it is assumed that G(x,y,z,t) = H(x,y)I(z,t). Substitution of this assumption into the Kolmogorov equation separates the latter into two equations, one for H(x,y) and the other for I(z,t). Solution of the latter then gives a generating function, which indicates that in the weak-coupling limit, the detector counts are Poisson distributed. Ruby also showed that if the detector effect is neglected in the equation for H(x,y), i.e., the detector efficiency is set to zero, then the resulting equation is identical with that considered by Wang and Ruby. The authors present here an approximate solution for H(x,y) that does not set the detector efficiency to zero

  6. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  7. Separating the contributions of variability and parameter uncertainty in probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankararaman, S.; Mahadevan, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a computational methodology to quantify the individual contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in a random variable. Even if the distribution type is assumed to be known, sparse or imprecise data leads to uncertainty about the distribution parameters. If uncertain distribution parameters are represented using probability distributions, then the random variable can be represented using a family of probability distributions. The family of distributions concept has been used to obtain qualitative, graphical inference of the contributions of natural variability and distribution parameter uncertainty. The proposed methodology provides quantitative estimates of the contributions of the two types of uncertainty. Using variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the contributions of variability and distribution parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty are computed. The proposed method is developed at two different levels; first, at the level of a variable whose distribution parameters are uncertain, and second, at the level of a model output whose inputs have uncertain distribution parameters

  8. Probability distribution and statistical properties of spherically compensated cosmic regions in ΛCDM cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alimi, Jean-Michel; de Fromont, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The statistical properties of cosmic structures are well known to be strong probes for cosmology. In particular, several studies tried to use the cosmic void counting number to obtain tight constrains on dark energy. In this paper, we model the statistical properties of these regions using the CoSphere formalism (de Fromont & Alimi) in both primordial and non-linearly evolved Universe in the standard Λ cold dark matter model. This formalism applies similarly for minima (voids) and maxima (such as DM haloes), which are here considered symmetrically. We first derive the full joint Gaussian distribution of CoSphere's parameters in the Gaussian random field. We recover the results of Bardeen et al. only in the limit where the compensation radius becomes very large, i.e. when the central extremum decouples from its cosmic environment. We compute the probability distribution of the compensation size in this primordial field. We show that this distribution is redshift independent and can be used to model cosmic voids size distribution. We also derive the statistical distribution of the peak parameters introduced by Bardeen et al. and discuss their correlation with the cosmic environment. We show that small central extrema with low density are associated with narrow compensation regions with deep compensation density, while higher central extrema are preferentially located in larger but smoother over/under massive regions.

  9. Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaćimović, Vladimir; Crnkić, Aladin

    2017-01-01

    In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

  10. Collective motions of globally coupled oscillators and some probability distributions on circle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaćimović, Vladimir [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Montenegro, Cetinjski put, bb., 81000 Podgorica (Montenegro); Crnkić, Aladin, E-mail: aladin.crnkic@hotmail.com [Faculty of Technical Engineering, University of Bihać, Ljubijankićeva, bb., 77000 Bihać, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

    2017-06-28

    In 2010 Kato and Jones described a new family of probability distributions on circle, obtained as Möbius transformation of von Mises distribution. We present the model demonstrating that these distributions appear naturally in study of populations of coupled oscillators. We use this opportunity to point out certain relations between Directional Statistics and collective motion of coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • We specify probability distributions on circle that arise in Kuramoto model. • We study how the mean-field coupling affects the shape of distribution of phases. • We discuss potential applications in some experiments on cell cycle. • We apply Directional Statistics to study collective dynamics of coupled oscillators.

  11. Skew Generalized Extreme Value Distribution: Probability Weighted Moments Estimation and Application to Block Maxima Procedure

    OpenAIRE

    Ribereau, Pierre; Masiello, Esterina; Naveau, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Following the work of Azzalini ([2] and [3]) on the skew normal distribution, we propose an extension of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, the SGEV. This new distribution allows for a better t of maxima and can be interpreted as both the distribution of maxima when maxima are taken on dependent data and when maxima are taken over a random block size. We propose to estimate the parameters of the SGEV distribution via the Probability Weighted Moments meth...

  12. New family of probability distributions with applications to Monte Carlo studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.E.; Tietjen, G.L.; Beckman, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A new probability distribution is presented that offers considerable potential for providing stochastic inputs to Monte Carlo simulation studies. The distribution includes the exponential power family as a special case. An efficient computational strategy is proposed for random variate generation. An example for testing the hypothesis of unit variance illustrates the advantages of the proposed distribution

  13. A transmission probability method for calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasastjerna, F.; Lux, I.

    1980-03-01

    A transmission probability method implemented in the program TPHEX is described. This program was developed for the calculation of neutron flux distributions in hexagonal light water reactor fuel assemblies. The accuracy appears to be superior to diffusion theory, and the computation time is shorter than that of the collision probability method. (author)

  14. A measure of mutual divergence among a number of probability distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. N. Kapur

    1987-01-01

    major inequalities due to Shannon, Renyi and Holder. The inequalities are then used to obtain some useful results in information theory. In particular measures are obtained to measure the mutual divergence among two or more probability distributions.

  15. Central limit theorems for Sinkhorn divergence between probability distributions on finite spaces and statistical applications

    OpenAIRE

    Bigot, Jérémie; Cazelles, Elsa; Papadakis, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    The notion of Sinkhorn divergence has recently gained popularity in machine learning and statistics, as it makes feasible the use of smoothed optimal transportation distances for data analysis. The Sinkhorn divergence allows the fast computation of an entropically regularized Wasserstein distance between two probability distributions supported on a finite metric space of (possibly) high-dimension. For data sampled from one or two unknown probability distributions, we derive central limit theo...

  16. Likelihood analysis of species occurrence probability from presence-only data for modelling species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Yackulic, Charles; Nichols, James D.

    2012-01-01

    1. Understanding the factors affecting species occurrence is a pre-eminent focus of applied ecological research. However, direct information about species occurrence is lacking for many species. Instead, researchers sometimes have to rely on so-called presence-only data (i.e. when no direct information about absences is available), which often results from opportunistic, unstructured sampling. MAXENT is a widely used software program designed to model and map species distribution using presence-only data. 2. We provide a critical review of MAXENT as applied to species distribution modelling and discuss how it can lead to inferential errors. A chief concern is that MAXENT produces a number of poorly defined indices that are not directly related to the actual parameter of interest – the probability of occurrence (ψ). This focus on an index was motivated by the belief that it is not possible to estimate ψ from presence-only data; however, we demonstrate that ψ is identifiable using conventional likelihood methods under the assumptions of random sampling and constant probability of species detection. 3. The model is implemented in a convenient r package which we use to apply the model to simulated data and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We demonstrate that MAXENT produces extreme under-predictions when compared to estimates produced by logistic regression which uses the full (presence/absence) data set. We note that MAXENT predictions are extremely sensitive to specification of the background prevalence, which is not objectively estimated using the MAXENT method. 4. As with MAXENT, formal model-based inference requires a random sample of presence locations. Many presence-only data sets, such as those based on museum records and herbarium collections, may not satisfy this assumption. However, when sampling is random, we believe that inference should be based on formal methods that facilitate inference about interpretable ecological quantities

  17. Probability Distribution and Deviation Information Fusion Driven Support Vector Regression Model and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changhao Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In modeling, only information from the deviation between the output of the support vector regression (SVR model and the training sample is considered, whereas the other prior information of the training sample, such as probability distribution information, is ignored. Probabilistic distribution information describes the overall distribution of sample data in a training sample that contains different degrees of noise and potential outliers, as well as helping develop a high-accuracy model. To mine and use the probability distribution information of a training sample, a new support vector regression model that incorporates probability distribution information weight SVR (PDISVR is proposed. In the PDISVR model, the probability distribution of each sample is considered as the weight and is then introduced into the error coefficient and slack variables of SVR. Thus, the deviation and probability distribution information of the training sample are both used in the PDISVR model to eliminate the influence of noise and outliers in the training sample and to improve predictive performance. Furthermore, examples with different degrees of noise were employed to demonstrate the performance of PDISVR, which was then compared with those of three SVR-based methods. The results showed that PDISVR performs better than the three other methods.

  18. The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, R.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)

  19. Quantitative non-monotonic modeling of economic uncertainty by probability and possibility distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2012-01-01

    to the understanding of similarities and differences of the two approaches as well as practical applications. The probability approach offers a good framework for representation of randomness and variability. Once the probability distributions of uncertain parameters and their correlations are known the resulting...... uncertainty can be calculated. The possibility approach is particular well suited for representation of uncertainty of a non-statistical nature due to lack of knowledge and requires less information than the probability approach. Based on the kind of uncertainty and knowledge present, these aspects...... by probability distributions is readily done by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Calculation of non-monotonic functions of possibility distributions is done within the theoretical framework of fuzzy intervals, but straight forward application of fuzzy arithmetic in general results in overestimation of interval...

  20. Predicting the probability of slip in gait: methodology and distribution study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gragg, Jared; Yang, James

    2016-01-01

    The likelihood of a slip is related to the available and required friction for a certain activity, here gait. Classical slip and fall analysis presumed that a walking surface was safe if the difference between the mean available and required friction coefficients exceeded a certain threshold. Previous research was dedicated to reformulating the classical slip and fall theory to include the stochastic variation of the available and required friction when predicting the probability of slip in gait. However, when predicting the probability of a slip, previous researchers have either ignored the variation in the required friction or assumed the available and required friction to be normally distributed. Also, there are no published results that actually give the probability of slip for various combinations of required and available frictions. This study proposes a modification to the equation for predicting the probability of slip, reducing the previous equation from a double-integral to a more convenient single-integral form. Also, a simple numerical integration technique is provided to predict the probability of slip in gait: the trapezoidal method. The effect of the random variable distributions on the probability of slip is also studied. It is shown that both the required and available friction distributions cannot automatically be assumed as being normally distributed. The proposed methods allow for any combination of distributions for the available and required friction, and numerical results are compared to analytical solutions for an error analysis. The trapezoidal method is shown to be highly accurate and efficient. The probability of slip is also shown to be sensitive to the input distributions of the required and available friction. Lastly, a critical value for the probability of slip is proposed based on the number of steps taken by an average person in a single day.

  1. Probability distribution of long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was undertaken to determine the probability distribution of Long-run indiscriminate felling of trees in northern senatorial district of Adamawa State. Specifically, the study focused on examining the future direction of indiscriminate felling of trees as well as its equilibrium distribution. A multi-stage and simple random ...

  2. Bounds for the probability distribution function of the linear ACD process

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes, Marcelo

    2003-01-01

    Rio de Janeiro This paper derives both lower and upper bounds for the probability distribution function of stationary ACD(p, q) processes. For the purpose of illustration, I specialize the results to the main parent distributions in duration analysis. Simulations show that the lower bound is much tighter than the upper bound.

  3. The distribution function of a probability measure on a space with a fractal structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Granero, M.A.; Galvez-Rodriguez, J.F.

    2017-07-01

    In this work we show how to define a probability measure with the help of a fractal structure. One of the keys of this approach is to use the completion of the fractal structure. Then we use the theory of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space and describe it in this context. Finally, with the help of fractal structures, we prove that a function satisfying the properties of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space is a cumulative distribution function with respect to some probability measure on the space. (Author)

  4. Feynman quasi probability distribution for spin-(1/2), and its generalizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colucci, M.

    1999-01-01

    It has been examined the Feynman's paper Negative probability, in which, after a discussion about the possibility of attributing a real physical meaning to quasi probability distributions, he introduces a new kind of distribution for spin-(1/2), with a possible method of generalization to systems with arbitrary number of states. The principal aim of this article is to shed light upon the method of construction of these distributions, taking into consideration their application to some experiments, and discussing their positive and negative aspects

  5. Time dependent and asymptotic neutron number probability distribution calculation using discrete Fourier transform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humbert, Ph.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider the probability distribution of neutrons in a multiplying assembly. The problem is studied using a space independent one group neutron point reactor model without delayed neutrons. We recall the generating function methodology and analytical results obtained by G.I. Bell when the c 2 approximation is used and we present numerical solutions in the general case, without this approximation. The neutron source induced distribution is calculated using the single initial neutron distribution which satisfies a master (Kolmogorov backward) equation. This equation is solved using the generating function method. The generating function satisfies a differential equation and the probability distribution is derived by inversion of the generating function. Numerical results are obtained using the same methodology where the generating function is the Fourier transform of the probability distribution. Discrete Fourier transforms are used to calculate the discrete time dependent distributions and continuous Fourier transforms are used to calculate the asymptotic continuous probability distributions. Numerical applications are presented to illustrate the method. (author)

  6. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OVER THE SET OF CLASSES IN ARABIC DIALECT CLASSIFICATION TASK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Durandin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research.We propose an approach for solving machine learning classification problem that uses the information about the probability distribution on the training data class label set. The algorithm is illustrated on a complex natural language processing task - classification of Arabic dialects. Method. Each object in the training set is associated with a probability distribution over the class label set instead of a particular class label. The proposed approach solves the classification problem taking into account the probability distribution over the class label set to improve the quality of the built classifier. Main Results. The suggested approach is illustrated on the automatic Arabic dialects classification example. Mined from the Twitter social network, the analyzed data contain word-marks and belong to the following six Arabic dialects: Saudi, Levantine, Algerian, Egyptian, Iraq, Jordan, and to the modern standard Arabic (MSA. The paper results demonstrate an increase of the quality of the built classifier achieved by taking into account probability distributions over the set of classes. Experiments carried out show that even relatively naive accounting of the probability distributions improves the precision of the classifier from 44% to 67%. Practical Relevance. Our approach and corresponding algorithm could be effectively used in situations when a manual annotation process performed by experts is connected with significant financial and time resources, but it is possible to create a system of heuristic rules. The implementation of the proposed algorithm enables to decrease significantly the data preparation expenses without substantial losses in the precision of the classification.

  7. Regional probability distribution of the annual reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanmohammadi, Neda; Rezaie, Hossein; Montaseri, Majid; Behmanesh, Javad

    2017-10-01

    The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in water management plans in arid or semi-arid countries such as Iran. For this reason, the regional analysis of this parameter is important. But, ET0 process is affected by several meteorological parameters such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the effect of distribution type of effective meteorological variables on ET0 distribution was analyzed. For this purpose, the regional probability distribution of the annual ET0 and its effective parameters were selected. Used data in this research was recorded data at 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960-2014. Using the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test and the L-moment method, five common distributions were compared and the best distribution was selected. The results of PPCC test and L-moment diagram indicated that the Pearson type III distribution was the best probability distribution for fitting annual ET0 and its four effective parameters. The results of RMSE showed that the ability of the PPCC test and L-moment method for regional analysis of reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters was similar. The results also showed that the distribution type of the parameters which affected ET0 values can affect the distribution of reference evapotranspiration.

  8. Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

    2016-12-01

    Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

  9. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2008-06-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in current global climate models (GCMs). The representation of potential changes in the form of a probability density function (PDF) is increasingly sought for applications. This article presents a method of estimating PDFs for projections based on the "pattern scaling" technique, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the standardized regional change. A mathematical framework for the problem is developed, which includes a joint probability distribution for the product of these two factors. Several simple approaches are considered for representing the factors by PDFs using GCM results, allowing model weighting. The four-parameter beta distribution is found to provide a smooth PDF that can match the mean and range of GCM results, allowing skewness when appropriate. A beta representation of the range in global warming consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report is presented. The method is applied to changes in Australian temperature and precipitation, under the A1B scenario of concentrations, using results from 23 GCMs in the CMIP3 database. Statistical results, including percentiles and threshold exceedences, are compared for the case of southern Australian temperature change in summer. For the precipitation example, central Australian winter rainfall, the usual linear scaling assumption produces a net change PDF that extends to unphysically large decreases. This is avoided by assuming an exponential relationship between percentage decreases in rainfall and warming.

  10. Spatiotemporal and joint probability behavior of temperature extremes over the Himalayan region under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Uttam P.; Bhargav, K.; Hazra, B.; Goyal, Manish Kumar

    2017-10-01

    In this study, temperature extremes are analyzed for observed (1979-2005) and projected scenarios using three global climate models (GCMs) and their Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, to investigate the spatio-temporal variations and possible changes in joint probability behavior of temperature extremes over North Sikkim Himalaya, India. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and copulas are applied to downscale the GCM outputs and to construct joint probability distribution of extremes, respectively. A set of ten climate extreme indices are selected to understand the inter-annual variability. Joint return period of extreme indices was calculated using six temperature extreme indices (based on days). Linear trends were estimated using Mann Kendall test with statistical significance and indicated widespread significant changes in temperature extremes. The significant changes in temperature extremes such as the temperature of warmest night and day have increased by 1.41 and 1.83 °C, and the temperature of coldest night and day has decreased by 3.61 and 4.83 °C, respectively, during 2006-2100 with the baseline period of 1979-2005. The spatial distribution of 5-year return periods and 10-year return periods is almost similar during 1979-2005. There is less co-occurrence of warm nights and days, but higher chance to co-occurrence of cool and warm nights in the same year during 2021-2100. The change in joint return periods under the RCP8.5 shows frequent co-occurrence of cool days and nights, ice and frost days, and cool and frost days than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. This study implies that the warm days, cool days, warmer nights, and cool nights are decreased with increased warming intensity, which shows the overall warming trend over the North Sikkim Himalaya, India.

  11. Empirical distribution function under heteroscedasticity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Víšek, Jan Ámos

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 5 (2011), s. 497-508 ISSN 0233-1888 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) GA402/09/0557 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Robustness * Convergence * Empirical distribution * Heteroscedasticity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.724, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/SI/visek-0365534.pdf

  12. A Hot Spots Ignition Probability Model for Low-Velocity Impacted Explosive Particles Based on the Particle Size and Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-fu Guo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle size and distribution play an important role in ignition. The size and distribution of the cyclotetramethylene tetranitramine (HMX particles were investigated by Laser Particle Size Analyzer Malvern MS2000 before experiment and calculation. The mean size of particles is 161 μm. Minimum and maximum sizes are 80 μm and 263 μm, respectively. The distribution function is like a quadratic function. Based on the distribution of micron scale explosive particles, a microscopic model is established to describe the process of ignition of HMX particles under drop weight. Both temperature of contact zones and ignition probability of powder explosive can be predicted. The calculated results show that the temperature of the contact zones between the particles and the drop weight surface increases faster and higher than that of the contact zones between two neighboring particles. For HMX particles, with all other conditions being kept constant, if the drop height is less than 0.1 m, ignition probability will be close to 0. When the drop heights are 0.2 m and 0.3 m, the ignition probability is 0.27 and 0.64, respectively, whereas when the drop height is more than 0.4 m, ignition probability will be close to 0.82. In comparison with experimental results, the two curves are reasonably close to each other, which indicates our model has a certain degree of rationality.

  13. Generalized Huberman-Rudnick scaling law and robustness of q-Gaussian probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afsar, Ozgur; Tirnakli, Ugur

    2013-01-01

    We generalize Huberman-Rudnick universal scaling law for all periodic windows of the logistic map and show the robustness of q-Gaussian probability distributions in the vicinity of chaos threshold. Our scaling relation is universal for the self-similar windows of the map which exhibit period-doubling subharmonic bifurcations. Using this generalized scaling argument, for all periodic windows, as chaos threshold is approached, a developing convergence to q-Gaussian is numerically obtained both in the central regions and tails of the probability distributions of sums of iterates.

  14. On the probability distribution of the stochastic saturation scale in QCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquet, C.; Soyez, G.; Xiao Bowen

    2006-01-01

    It was recently noticed that high-energy scattering processes in QCD have a stochastic nature. An event-by-event scattering amplitude is characterised by a saturation scale which is a random variable. The statistical ensemble of saturation scales formed with all the events is distributed according to a probability law whose cumulants have been recently computed. In this work, we obtain the probability distribution from the cumulants. We prove that it can be considered as Gaussian over a large domain that we specify and our results are confirmed by numerical simulations

  15. LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS IN THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ELICITATION PROBLEM: AN APPLICATION TO THE 2013 FIFA CONFEDERATIONS CUP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diogo de Carvalho Bezerra

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Contributions from the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the linear programming model for the elicitation of experts' beliefs are presented. The process allows for the calibration of the family of probability distributions obtained in the elicitation process. An experiment to obtain the probability distribution of a future event (Brazil vs. Spain soccer game in the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup final game was conducted. The proposed sensitivity analysis step may help to reduce the vagueness of the information given by the expert.

  16. Predicting dihedral angle probability distributions for protein coil residues from primary sequence using neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helles, Glennie; Fonseca, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    done previously, none have, to our knowledge, presented comparable results for the probability distribution of dihedral angles. Results: In this paper we develop an artificial neural network that uses an input-window of amino acids to predict a dihedral angle probability distribution for the middle...... residue in the input-window. The trained neural network shows a significant improvement (4-68%) in predicting the most probable bin (covering a 30°×30° area of the dihedral angle space) for all amino acids in the data set compared to first order statistics. An accuracy comparable to that of secondary......Predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein from its amino acid sequence is currently one of the most challenging problems in bioinformatics. The internal structure of helices and sheets is highly recurrent and help reduce the search space significantly. However, random coil segments...

  17. Maximizing a Probability: A Student Workshop on an Application of Continuous Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Martin

    2010-01-01

    For many students meeting, say, the gamma distribution for the first time, it may well turn out to be a rather fruitless encounter unless they are immediately able to see an application of this probability model to some real-life situation. With this in mind, we pose here an appealing problem that can be used as the basis for a workshop activity…

  18. The distribution of FRAX(®)-based probabilities in women from Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanis, John A; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V

    2012-11-01

    New assessment guidelines for osteoporosis in Japan include the use of the WHO risk assessment tool (FRAX) that computes the 10-year probability of fracture. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities and to assess the impact of probability-based intervention thresholds in women from Japan aged 50 years and older. Age-specific simulation cohorts were constructed from the prevalences of clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities as assessed by FRAX. These data were used to estimate the number and proportion of women at or above a 10-year fracture probability of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 %. In addition, case scenarios that applied a FRAX probability threshold of 15 % were compared with current guidance. In the absence of additional criteria for treatment, a 15 % fracture probability threshold would identify approximately 32 % of women over the age of 50 years (9.3 million women) as eligible for treatment. Because of expected changes in population demography, the 15 % fracture probability threshold would capture approximately 38 % of women over the age of 50 years (12.7 million women), mainly those aged 80 years or older. The introduction of a FRAX threshold of 15 % would permit treatment in women with clinical risk factors that would otherwise fall below previously established intervention thresholds. The incorporation of FRAX into assessment guidelines is likely to redirect treatments for osteoporosis from younger women at low risk to elderly women at high fracture risk.

  19. Classification of Knee Joint Vibration Signals Using Bivariate Feature Distribution Estimation and Maximal Posterior Probability Decision Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Zheng

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of knee joint vibration or vibroarthrographic (VAG signals using signal processing and machine learning algorithms possesses high potential for the noninvasive detection of articular cartilage degeneration, which may reduce unnecessary exploratory surgery. Feature representation of knee joint VAG signals helps characterize the pathological condition of degenerative articular cartilages in the knee. This paper used the kernel-based probability density estimation method to model the distributions of the VAG signals recorded from healthy subjects and patients with knee joint disorders. The estimated densities of the VAG signals showed explicit distributions of the normal and abnormal signal groups, along with the corresponding contours in the bivariate feature space. The signal classifications were performed by using the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine with polynomial kernels, and the maximal posterior probability decision criterion. The maximal posterior probability decision criterion was able to provide the total classification accuracy of 86.67% and the area (Az of 0.9096 under the receiver operating characteristics curve, which were superior to the results obtained by either the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8564 or the support vector machine with polynomial kernels (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8533. Such results demonstrated the merits of the bivariate feature distribution estimation and the superiority of the maximal posterior probability decision criterion for analysis of knee joint VAG signals.

  20. 77 FR 5711 - Guidelines for Determining Probability of Causation Under the Energy Employees Occupational...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-06

    ... three comments argued that to be fair to claimants, CLL should be included as a radiogenic cancer under..., and hence had required DOL to assign a probability of causation value of ``zero.'' There were two... with CLL will be eligible for dose reconstruction under EEOICPA. The notice of proposed rulemaking also...

  1. Estimation of Extreme Response and Failure Probability of Wind Turbines under Normal Operation using Probability Density Evolution Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Liu, W. F.

    2013-01-01

    distribution instead of any other approximate schemes of fitted distribution currently used in statistical extrapolation techniques. Besides, the comparative studies against the classical fitted distributions and the standard Monte Carlo techniques are carried out. Numerical results indicate that PDEM exhibits...

  2. INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. B. Levina

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

  3. Audio analysis of statistically instantaneous signals with mixed Gaussian probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Ganesh R.; Wang, Wenwu

    2012-10-01

    In this article, a novel method is proposed to measure the separation qualities of statistically instantaneous audio signals with mixed Gaussian probability distributions. This study evaluates the impact of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the mixed signals on the outcomes of both sub- and super-Gaussian distributions. Different Gaussian measures are evaluated by using various spectral-distortion measures. It aims to compare the different audio mixtures from both super-Gaussian and sub-Gaussian perspectives. Extensive computer simulation confirms that the separated sources always have super-Gaussian characteristics irrespective of the PDF of the signals or mixtures. The result based on the objective measures demonstrates the effectiveness of source separation in improving the quality of the separated audio sources.

  4. Quantile selection procedure and assoiated distribution of ratios of order statistics from a restricted family of probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, S.S.; Panchapakesan, S.

    1975-01-01

    A quantile selection procedure in reliability problems pertaining to a restricted family of probability distributions is discussed. This family is assumed to be star-ordered with respect to the standard normal distribution folded at the origin. Motivation for this formulation of the problem is described. Both exact and asymptotic results dealing with the distribution of the maximum of ratios of order statistics from such a family are obtained and tables of the appropriate constants, percentiles of this statistic, are given in order to facilitate the use of the selection procedure

  5. Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

    2008-01-01

    The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: - The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; - As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. - Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; - Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; - Next method is considering only

  6. Small-Scale Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using Probability Kriging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S Q; Zhang, H Y; Li, Z L

    2016-10-01

    Understanding spatio-temporal distribution of pest in orchards can provide important information that could be used to design monitoring schemes and establish better means for pest control. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) was assessed, and activity trends were evaluated by using probability kriging. Adults of B. minax were captured in two successive occurrences in a small-scale citrus orchard by using food bait traps, which were placed both inside and outside the orchard. The weekly spatial distribution of B. minax within the orchard and adjacent woods was examined using semivariogram parameters. The edge concentration was discovered during the most weeks in adult occurrence, and the population of the adults aggregated with high probability within a less-than-100-m-wide band on both of the sides of the orchard and the woods. The sequential probability kriged maps showed that the adults were estimated in the marginal zone with higher probability, especially in the early and peak stages. The feeding, ovipositing, and mating behaviors of B. minax are possible explanations for these spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, spatial arrangement and distance to the forest edge of traps or spraying spot should be considered to enhance pest control on B. minax in small-scale orchards.

  7. Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

    2017-08-01

    We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

  8. THREE-MOMENT BASED APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aliev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the problem of approximation of probability distributions of random variables defined in positive area of real numbers with coefficient of variation different from unity. While using queueing systems as models for computer networks, calculation of characteristics is usually performed at the level of expectation and variance. At the same time, one of the main characteristics of multimedia data transmission quality in computer networks is delay jitter. For jitter calculation the function of packets time delay distribution should be known. It is shown that changing the third moment of distribution of packets delay leads to jitter calculation difference in tens or hundreds of percent, with the same values of the first two moments – expectation value and delay variation coefficient. This means that delay distribution approximation for the calculation of jitter should be performed in accordance with the third moment of delay distribution. For random variables with coefficients of variation greater than unity, iterative approximation algorithm with hyper-exponential two-phase distribution based on three moments of approximated distribution is offered. It is shown that for random variables with coefficients of variation less than unity, the impact of the third moment of distribution becomes negligible, and for approximation of such distributions Erlang distribution with two first moments should be used. This approach gives the possibility to obtain upper bounds for relevant characteristics, particularly, the upper bound of delay jitter.

  9. Probability distribution of surface wind speed induced by convective adjustment on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Masaru

    2017-03-01

    The influence of convective adjustment on the spatial structure of Venusian surface wind and probability distribution of its wind speed is investigated using an idealized weather research and forecasting model. When the initially uniform wind is much weaker than the convective wind, patches of both prograde and retrograde winds with scales of a few kilometers are formed during active convective adjustment. After the active convective adjustment, because the small-scale convective cells and their related vertical momentum fluxes dissipate quickly, the large-scale (>4 km) prograde and retrograde wind patches remain on the surface and in the longitude-height cross-section. This suggests the coexistence of local prograde and retrograde flows, which may correspond to those observed by Pioneer Venus below 10 km altitude. The probability distributions of surface wind speed V during the convective adjustment have a similar form in different simulations, with a sharp peak around ∼0.1 m s-1 and a bulge developing on the flank of the probability distribution. This flank bulge is associated with the most active convection, which has a probability distribution with a peak at the wind speed 1.5-times greater than the Weibull fitting parameter c during the convective adjustment. The Weibull distribution P(> V) (= exp[-(V/c)k]) with best-estimate coefficients of Lorenz (2016) is reproduced during convective adjustments induced by a potential energy of ∼7 × 107 J m-2, which is calculated from the difference in total potential energy between initially unstable and neutral states. The maximum vertical convective heat flux magnitude is proportional to the potential energy of the convective adjustment in the experiments with the initial unstable-layer thickness altered. The present work suggests that convective adjustment is a promising process for producing the wind structure with occasionally generating surface winds of ∼1 m s-1 and retrograde wind patches.

  10. An Undersea Mining Microseism Source Location Algorithm Considering Wave Velocity Probability Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furui Du

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional mine microseism locating methods are mainly based on the assumption that the wave velocity is uniform through the space, which leads to some errors for the assumption goes against the laws of nature. In this paper, the wave velocity is regarded as a random variable, and the probability distribution information of the wave velocity is fused into the traditional locating method. This paper puts forwards the microseism source location method for the undersea mining on condition of the probability distribution of the wave velocity and comes up with the solving process of Monte Carlo. In addition, based on the simulated results of the Monte Carlo method, the space is divided into three areas: the most possible area (area I, the possible area (area II, and the small probability area (area III. Attached to corresponding mathematical formulations, spherical models and cylindrical models in different areas are, respectively, built according to whether the source is in the sensor arrays. Both the examples and the actual applications show that (1 the method of microseism source location in this paper can highly improve the accuracy of the microseism monitoring, especially for the source beyond the sensor arrays, and (2 the space-dividing method based on occurrence possibilities of the source can recognize and sweep the hidden dangers for it predicts the probable location range of the source efficiently, while the traditional method cannot.

  11. Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA of probability distributions in fluid turbulence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Wu

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA was introduced by Chang and Wu (2008 to describe the multifractal characteristic of intermittent events. The procedure provides a natural connection between the rank-ordered spectrum and the idea of one-parameter scaling for monofractals. This technique has successfully been applied to MHD turbulence simulations and turbulence data observed in various space plasmas. In this paper, the technique is applied to the probability distributions in the inertial range of the turbulent fluid flow, as given in the vast Johns Hopkins University (JHU turbulence database. In addition, a new way of finding the continuous ROMA spectrum and the scaled probability distribution function (PDF simultaneously is introduced.

  12. An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

    1980-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

  13. Reparametrization-covariant theory for on-line learning of probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aida, T

    2001-11-01

    We discuss the on-line learning of probability distributions in a reparametrization covariant formulation. Reparametrization covariance plays an essential role not only to respect an intrinsic property of "information" but also for pattern recognition problems. We can obtain an optimal on-line learning algorithm with reparametrization invariance, where the conformal gauge connects a covariant formulation with a noncovariant one in a natural way.

  14. Stationary and Nontationary Response Probability Density Function of a Beam under Poisson White Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasta, M.; Di Paola, M.

    In this paper an approximate explicit probability density function for the analysis of external oscillations of a linear and geometric nonlinear simply supported beam driven by random pulses is proposed. The adopted impulsive loading model is the Poisson White Noise , that is a process having Dirac's delta occurrences with random intensity distributed in time according to Poisson's law. The response probability density function can be obtained solving the related Kolmogorov-Feller (KF) integro-differential equation. An approximated solution, using path integral method, is derived transforming the KF equation to a first order partial differential equation. The method of characteristic is then applied to obtain an explicit solution. Different levels of approximation, depending on the physical assumption on the transition probability density function, are found and the solution for the response density is obtained as series expansion using convolution integrals.

  15. Asymptotic gap probability distributions of the Gaussian unitary ensembles and Jacobi unitary ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shulin Lyu

    2018-01-01

    The σ function, namely, the derivative of the log of the smallest eigenvalue distributions of the finite-n LUE or the JUE, satisfies the Jimbo–Miwa–Okamoto σ form of PV and PVI, although in the shift Jacobi case, with the weight xα(1−xβ, the β parameter does not show up in the equation. We also obtain the asymptotic expansions for the smallest eigenvalue distributions of the Laguerre unitary and Jacobi unitary ensembles after appropriate double scalings, and obtained the constants in the asymptotic expansion of the gap probabilities, expressed in term of the Barnes G-function valuated at special point.

  16. Intermittency in the solar wind turbulence through probability distribution functions of fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorriso-Valvo, Luca; Carbone, Vincenzo; Veltri, Pierluigi; Consolini, Giuseppe; Bruno, Roberto

    Intermittency in fluid turbulence can be emphasized through the analysis of Probability Distribution Functions (PDF) for velocity fluctuations, which display a strong non-gaussian behavior at small scales. Castaing et al. (1990) have introduced the idea that this behavior can be represented, in the framework of a multiplicative cascade model, by a convolution of gaussians whose variances is distributed according to a log-normal distribution. In this letter we have tried to test this conjecture on the MHD solar wind turbulence by performing a fit of the PDF of the bulk speed and magnetic field intensity fluctuations calculated in the solar wind, with the model. This fit allows us to calculate a parameter λ² depending on the scale, which represents the width of the log-normal distribution of the variances of the gaussians. The physical implications of the obtained values of the parameter as well as of its scaling law are finally discussed.

  17. Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines: A Monte Carlo study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400, La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, 07738 Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2009-09-15

    The probability distributions of external-corrosion pit depth and pit growth rate were investigated in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulations. The study combines a predictive pit growth model developed by the authors with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. Depending on the pipeline age, any of the three maximal extreme value distributions, i.e. Weibull, Frechet or Gumbel, can arise as the best fit to the pitting depth and rate data. The Frechet distribution best fits the corrosion data for long exposure periods. This can be explained by considering the long-term stabilization of the diffusion-controlled pit growth. The findings of the study provide reliability analysts with accurate information regarding the stochastic characteristics of the pitting damage in underground pipelines.

  18. The limiting conditional probability distribution in a stochastic model of T cell repertoire maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirk, Emily R; Lythe, Grant; van den Berg, Hugo A; Hurst, Gareth A D; Molina-París, Carmen

    2010-04-01

    The limiting conditional probability distribution (LCD) has been much studied in the field of mathematical biology, particularly in the context of epidemiology and the persistence of epidemics. However, it has not yet been applied to the immune system. One of the characteristic features of the T cell repertoire is its diversity. This diversity declines in old age, whence the concepts of extinction and persistence are also relevant to the immune system. In this paper we model T cell repertoire maintenance by means of a continuous-time birth and death process on the positive integers, where the origin is an absorbing state. We show that eventual extinction is guaranteed. The late-time behaviour of the process before extinction takes place is modelled by the LCD, which we prove always exists for the process studied here. In most cases, analytic expressions for the LCD cannot be computed but the probability distribution may be approximated by means of the stationary probability distributions of two related processes. We show how these approximations are related to the LCD of the original process and use them to study the LCD in two special cases. We also make use of the large N expansion to derive a further approximation to the LCD. The accuracy of the various approximations is then analysed. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannay, J. H.

    2018-04-01

    A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

  20. Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from postmortem human subject tests under axial impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko

    2014-01-01

    Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 k

  1. The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels in high temperature, high purity water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akashi, Masatsune; Kenjyo, Takao; Matsukura, Shinji; Kawamoto, Teruaki

    1984-01-01

    In order to discuss the probability distribution of intergranular stress corrsion carcking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels, a series of the creviced bent beem (CBB) and the uni-axial constant load tests were carried out in oxygenated high temperature, high purity water. The following concludions were resulted; (1) The initiation process of intergranular stress corrosion cracking has been assumed to be approximated by the Poisson stochastic process, based on the CBB test results. (2) The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life may consequently be approximated by the exponential probability distribution. (3) The experimental data could be fitted to the exponential probability distribution. (author)

  2. Estimating the distribution of probable age-at-death from dental remains of immature human fossils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackelford, Laura L; Stinespring Harris, Ashley E; Konigsberg, Lyle W

    2012-02-01

    In two historic longitudinal growth studies, Moorrees et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 21 (1963) 99-108; J Dent Res 42 (1963) 1490-1502) presented the "mean attainment age" for stages of tooth development for 10 permanent tooth types and three deciduous tooth types. These findings were presented graphically to assess the rate of tooth formation in living children and to age immature skeletal remains. Despite being widely cited, these graphical data are difficult to implement because there are no accompanying numerical values for the parameters underlying the growth data. This analysis generates numerical parameters from the data reported by Moorrees et al. by digitizing 358 points from these tooth formation graphs using DataThief III, version 1.5. Following the original methods, the digitized points for each age transition were conception-corrected and converted to the logarithmic scale to determine a median attainment age for each dental formation stage. These values are subsequently used to estimate age-at-death distributions for immature individuals using a single tooth or multiple teeth, including estimates for 41 immature early modern humans and 25 immature Neandertals. Within-tooth variance is calculated for each age estimate based on a single tooth, and a between-tooth component of variance is calculated for age estimates based on two or more teeth to account for the increase in precision that comes from using additional teeth. Finally, we calculate the relative probability of observing a particular dental formation sequence given known-age reference information and demonstrate its value in estimating age for immature fossil specimens. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Maximum likelihood estimation of exponential distribution under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Maximum likelihood estimation of exponential distribution under type-ii censoring from imprecise data. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... This paper deals with the estimation of exponential mean parameter under Type-II censoring scheme when the lifetime observations are fuzzy and are assumed to be ...

  4. Estimating conditional probability of volcanic flows for forecasting event distribution and making evacuation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanescu, E. R.; Patra, A.; Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G.

    2012-04-01

    event. Logistic regression - Here, we define A as a discrete r.v., while B is a continuous one. P(B) represents the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location B, while P(A) represents the probability of having a flow or non-flow at A. Bayes analysis - At this stage of the analysis we consider only the r.v. A, where P(A) represents the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location A. We are interested in observing how the probability of having a flow≥ hcritical at location A is changing when data from the model is taken into consideration. We assume a Beta prior distribution for P(A) and compute P(A/data) using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. Bayesian network for causal relationships - Here, we are interested in more than two critical locations and we are able to incorporate using a directed acyclic graph the causal relationship between all the chosen locations. Marginal probabilities along with the joint probability associated with an event based on the "causal links" between variables.

  5. On a New Class of Univariate Continuous Distributions that are Closed Under Inversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleha Naghmi Habibullah

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Inverted probability distributions find applications in various real – life situations including econometrics, survey sampling, biological sciences and life – testing. Closure under inversion implies that the reciprocal of a continuous random variable X has the same probability function as the original random variable, allowing for a possible change in parameter values. To date, only a very few probability distributions have been found to possess the closure property. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate a class of distributions that are closed under inversion, and to develop some statistical properties of this class of distributions.

  6. Simulation of Burn Probabilities and Fire Size Distributions for the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    This simulation research was conducted on behalf of five U.S. land management agencies in order to develop a fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The requirements included generating burn probabilities, characterizing fire behavior variation, and providing a means to evaluate sensitivity to both fire suppression and fuel treatment effects. This paper presents the methods and results of wildland fire size distributions and burn probabilities that were simulated for large units of land that together comprised the entire western United States. The outputs of these simulations are compared with historic data from Federal lands. The methods involved simulating fire ignition and growth for 10,000 to 20,000 "years" of artificial weather. The fire growth simulations were based on previously published methods (Finney 1998, 2002) and, when run repeatedly with different weather and ignition locations, produce fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (e.g. a "cell"). The artificial weather was generated using 1) a time-series analysis of recorded fire danger rating indices for each land unit that served as a proxy of daily and seasonal variation in fuel moisture, and 2) distributions of wind speed and direction from weather records in each unit. The simulations also required spatial data on fuel structure and topography which were provided by the LandFire project for the study area (http://www.landfire.gov). The occurrence and frequency of ignitions were simulated stochastically using empirical relationships that predicted the probability of large fire occurrence from the fire danger rating index. Fire suppression was represented using a modeling analysis of 453 large fires that was used to predict the probability of fire containment (by suppression forces) based on independent predictors of fire growth rates and fuel type. Fuel treatments were implemented into the fuel structure of the landscape to evaluate how these

  7. Analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor of solid state photomultiplier signals with crosstalk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinogradov, S.

    2012-01-01

    Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPM), also called Solid State Photomultipliers (SSPM), are based on Geiger mode avalanche breakdown that is limited by a strong negative feedback. An SSPM can detect and resolve single photons due to the high gain and ultra-low excess noise of avalanche multiplication in this mode. Crosstalk and afterpulsing processes associated with the high gain introduce specific excess noise and deteriorate the photon number resolution of the SSPM. The probabilistic features of these processes are widely studied because of its significance for the SSPM design, characterization, optimization and application, but the process modeling is mostly based on Monte Carlo simulations and numerical methods. In this study, crosstalk is considered to be a branching Poisson process, and analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor (ENF) of SSPM signals based on the Borel distribution as an advance on the geometric distribution models are presented and discussed. The models are found to be in a good agreement with the experimental probability distributions for dark counts and a few photon spectrums in a wide range of fired pixels number as well as with observed super-linear behavior of crosstalk ENF.

  8. Topologically appropriate coordinates for (V{sub zz}, η) joint probability distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evenson, William E., E-mail: bill@evenson.ch; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L., E-mail: phil.matheson@uvu.edu; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P. [Utah Valley University, Department of Physics (United States); Zacate, M. O. [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States)

    2016-12-15

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V{sub zz} and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the (V{sub zz}, η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek’s representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek’s work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  9. Topologically appropriate coordinates for ( V z z , η) joint probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, William E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery A.; Matheson, P. L.; Park, Tyler; Stufflebeam, Michael; Sullivan, Francis P.; Zacate, M. O.

    2016-12-01

    Inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) of hyperfine interactions in materials arises from a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) due to randomly distributed defects contributing non-uniformly to the EFG at probe sites. Hyperfine experiments reflect the inhomogeneous distribution of defects through the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of V z z and η determined by the defect concentration, crystal structure, and defect sites in the crystal. Czjzek showed how to choose coordinates in the ( V z z , η) plane that are consistent with the physical constraints and ordering convention for these EFG parameters. Here we show how to transform to a new set of coordinates that decreases the distortion inherent in Czjzek's representation. These new coordinates allow one to express the joint PDF for random distributions of defects in a form reasonably approximated by the product of two independent marginal distributions. This paper focuses on these topologically appropriate coordinates, with simple examples drawn from Czjzek's work and from our simulations of point defects in cubic lattices as well as random amorphous distributions of defects. Detailed simulations have been carried out for IHB in cubic structures and point charge models relevant to perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments.

  10. Finding probability distributions for electric field gradient components with inhomogeneous broadening in perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tyler; Adams, Mike; Bunker, Austin; Hodges, Jeffery; Stufflebeam, Michael; Evenson, William; Matheson, Phil; Zacate, Matthew

    2009-10-01

    Materials contain defects, which affect crystal properties such as damping of the correlation signal,G2(t), in time and broadening of the frequency spectrum in perturbed angular correlation (PAC) experiments. We attribute this inhomogeneous broadening (IHB) to the random static defects that produce a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs). Our goal is to find a relationship between the amount of broadening and the concentration of defects. After simulating the EFGs from random configurations of defects, we map our results from the Vzz-Vxx plane to a coordinate system optimized for the EFG distribution through a Czjzek transformation, followed by a conformal mapping. From histograms in this space, we can define probability distribution functions with parameters that vary according to defect concentration. This allows us to calculate the broadened G2(t) spectrum for any concentration, and, in reverse, identify concentrations given a broadened G2(t) spectrum.

  11. New method for extracting tumors in PET/CT images based on the probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitta, Shuhei; Hontani, Hidekata; Hukami, Tadanori

    2006-01-01

    In this report, we propose a method for extracting tumors from PET/CT images by referring to the probability distribution of pixel values in the PET image. In the proposed method, first, the organs that normally take up fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) (e.g., the liver, kidneys, and brain) are extracted. Then, the tumors are extracted from the images. The distribution of pixel values in PET images differs in each region of the body. Therefore, the threshold for detecting tumors is adaptively determined by referring to the distribution. We applied the proposed method to 37 cases and evaluated its performance. This report also presents the results of experiments comparing the proposed method and another method in which the pixel values are normalized for extracting tumors. (author)

  12. Numerical study of traffic flow considering the probability density distribution of the traffic density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L. M.; Zhu, H. B.; Zhang, N. X.

    The probability density distribution of the traffic density is analyzed based on the empirical data. It is found that the beta distribution can fit the result obtained from the measured traffic density perfectly. Then a modified traffic model is proposed to simulate the microscopic traffic flow, in which the probability density distribution of the traffic density is taken into account. The model also contains the behavior of drivers’ speed adaptation by taking into account the driving behavior difference and the dynamic headway. Accompanied by presenting the flux-density diagrams, the velocity evolution diagrams and the spatial-temporal profiles of vehicles are also given. The synchronized flow phase and the wide moving jam phase are indicated, which is the challenge for the cellular automata traffic model. Furthermore the phenomenon of the high speed car-following is exhibited, which has been observed in the measured data previously. The results set demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in detecting the complicated dynamic phenomena of the traffic flow.

  13. Measuring sensitivity in pharmacoeconomic studies. Refining point sensitivity and range sensitivity by incorporating probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, M J

    1999-07-01

    The aim of the present study is to describe a refinement of a previously presented method, based on the concept of point sensitivity, to deal with uncertainty in economic studies. The original method was refined by the incorporation of probability distributions which allow a more accurate assessment of the level of uncertainty in the model. In addition, a bootstrap method was used to create a probability distribution for a fixed input variable based on a limited number of data points. The original method was limited in that the sensitivity measurement was based on a uniform distribution of the variables and that the overall sensitivity measure was based on a subjectively chosen range which excludes the impact of values outside the range on the overall sensitivity. The concepts of the refined method were illustrated using a Markov model of depression. The application of the refined method substantially changed the ranking of the most sensitive variables compared with the original method. The response rate became the most sensitive variable instead of the 'per diem' for hospitalisation. The refinement of the original method yields sensitivity outcomes, which greater reflect the real uncertainty in economic studies.

  14. Combining Probability Distributions of Wind Waves and Sea Level Variations to Assess Return Periods of Coastal Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leijala, U.; Bjorkqvist, J. V.; Pellikka, H.; Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    Predicting the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level and wind waves is of great significance due to the major impact of flooding events in densely populated coastal regions. As mean sea level rises, the effect of sea level variations accompanied by the waves will be even more harmful in the future. The main challenge when evaluating the effect of waves and sea level variations is that long time series of both variables rarely exist. Wave statistics are also highly location-dependent, thus requiring wave buoy measurements and/or high-resolution wave modelling. As an initial approximation of the joint effect, the variables may be treated as independent random variables, to achieve the probability distribution of their sum. We present results of a case study based on three probability distributions: 1) wave run-up constructed from individual wave buoy measurements, 2) short-term sea level variability based on tide gauge data, and 3) mean sea level projections based on up-to-date regional scenarios. The wave measurements were conducted during 2012-2014 on the coast of city of Helsinki located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The short-term sea level distribution contains the last 30 years (1986-2015) of hourly data from Helsinki tide gauge, and the mean sea level projections are scenarios adjusted for the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, we present a sensitivity test based on six different theoretical wave height distributions representing different wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with one common sea level distribution, we can study how the different shapes of the wave height distribution affect the distribution of the sum, and which one of the components is dominating under different wave conditions. As an outcome of the method, we obtain a probability distribution of the maximum elevation of the continuous water mass, which enables a flexible tool for evaluating different risk levels in the

  15. Impact of spike train autostructure on probability distribution of joint spike events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipa, Gordon; Grün, Sonja; van Vreeswijk, Carl

    2013-05-01

    The discussion whether temporally coordinated spiking activity really exists and whether it is relevant has been heated over the past few years. To investigate this issue, several approaches have been taken to determine whether synchronized events occur significantly above chance, that is, whether they occur more often than expected if the neurons fire independently. Most investigations ignore or destroy the autostructure of the spiking activity of individual cells or assume Poissonian spiking as a model. Such methods that ignore the autostructure can significantly bias the coincidence statistics. Here, we study the influence of the autostructure on the probability distribution of coincident spiking events between tuples of mutually independent non-Poisson renewal processes. In particular, we consider two types of renewal processes that were suggested as appropriate models of experimental spike trains: a gamma and a log-normal process. For a gamma process, we characterize the shape of the distribution analytically with the Fano factor (FFc). In addition, we perform Monte Carlo estimations to derive the full shape of the distribution and the probability for false positives if a different process type is assumed as was actually present. We also determine how manipulations of such spike trains, here dithering, used for the generation of surrogate data change the distribution of coincident events and influence the significance estimation. We find, first, that the width of the coincidence count distribution and its FFc depend critically and in a nontrivial way on the detailed properties of the structure of the spike trains as characterized by the coefficient of variation CV. Second, the dependence of the FFc on the CV is complex and mostly nonmonotonic. Third, spike dithering, even if as small as a fraction of the interspike interval, can falsify the inference on coordinated firing.

  16. Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galetti, D.; Marchiolli, M.A.

    1995-06-01

    Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well know results. (author). 20 refs, 2 figs.

  17. On the Meta Distribution of Coverage Probability in Uplink Cellular Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Elsawy, Hesham

    2017-04-07

    This letter studies the meta distribution of coverage probability (CP), within a stochastic geometry framework, for cellular uplink transmission with fractional path-loss inversion power control. Using the widely accepted Poisson point process (PPP) for modeling the spatial locations of base stations (BSs), we obtain the percentiles of users that achieve a target uplink CP over an arbitrary, but fixed, realization of the PPP. To this end, the effect of the users activity factor (p) and the path-loss compensation factor () on the uplink performance are analyzed. The results show that decreasing p and/or increasing reduce the CP variation around the spatially averaged value.

  18. Exact probability distribution function for multifractal random walk models of stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, D. B.; Martirosyan, A.; Hu, Chin-Kun; Struzik, Z. R.

    2011-07-01

    We investigate the multifractal random walk (MRW) model, popular in the modelling of stock fluctuations in the financial market. The exact probability distribution function (PDF) is derived by employing methods proposed in the derivation of correlation functions in string theory, including the analytical extension of Selberg integrals. We show that the recent results by Y. V. Fyodorov, P. Le Doussal and A. Rosso obtained with the logarithmic Random Energy Model (REM) model are sufficient to derive exact formulas for the PDF of the log returns in the MRW model.

  19. Study of the SEMG probability distribution of the paretic tibialis anterior muscle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherniz, AnalIa S; Bonell, Claudia E; Tabernig, Carolina B

    2007-01-01

    The surface electromyographic signal is a stochastic signal that has been modeled as a Gaussian process, with a zero mean. It has been experimentally proved that this probability distribution can be adjusted with less error to a Laplacian type distribution. The selection of estimators for the detection of changes in the amplitude of the muscular signal depends, among other things, on the type of distribution. In the case of subjects with lesions to the superior motor neuron, the lack of central control affects the muscular tone, the force and the patterns of muscular movement involved in activities such as the gait cycle. In this work, the distribution types of the SEMG signal amplitudes of the tibialis anterior muscle are evaluated during gait, both in two healthy subjects and in two hemiparetic ones in order to select the estimators that best characterize them. It was observed that the Laplacian distribution function would be the one that best adjusts to the experimental data in the studied subjects, although this largely depends on the subject and on the data segment analyzed

  20. Probability distribution functions for intermittent scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodorsen, A.; Garcia, O. E.

    2018-03-01

    A stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas has been constructed based on a super-position of uncorrelated pulses arriving according to a Poisson process. In the most common applications of the model, the pulse amplitudes are assumed exponentially distributed, supported by conditional averaging of large-amplitude fluctuations in experimental measurement data. This basic assumption has two potential limitations. First, statistical analysis of measurement data using conditional averaging only reveals the tail of the amplitude distribution to be exponentially distributed. Second, exponentially distributed amplitudes leads to a positive definite signal which cannot capture fluctuations in for example electric potential and radial velocity. Assuming pulse amplitudes which are not positive definite often make finding a closed form for the probability density function (PDF) difficult, even if the characteristic function remains relatively simple. Thus estimating model parameters requires an approach based on the characteristic function, not the PDF. In this contribution, the effect of changing the amplitude distribution on the moments, PDF and characteristic function of the process is investigated and a parameter estimation method using the empirical characteristic function is presented and tested on synthetically generated data. This proves valuable for describing intermittent fluctuations of all plasma parameters in the boundary region of magnetized plasmas.

  1. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  2. Bayesian estimations in the Kumaraswamy distribution under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the parameter of the Kumaraswamy distribution, Bayes approach under squared error loss function in the reliability function has been suggested based on the pervious observations, this approach can be used for both progressively type II censorings. The study is useful for researchers and practitioners in reliability theory ...

  3. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with Vzz and η joint probability distribution functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M.; Zacate, M. O.

    2013-01-01

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G 2 (t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V zz , but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V zz and EFG asymmetry parameter η. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G 2 (t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V zz alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G 2 (t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G 2 (t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is applicable to more realistic cases.

  4. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with V zz and η joint probability distribution functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M.; Zacate, M. O.

    2013-05-01

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G 2( t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V zz , but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V zz and EFG asymmetry parameter η. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G 2( t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V zz alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G 2( t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G 2( t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is applicable to more realistic cases.

  5. Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Nijssen

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series

  6. Maximum Entropy Estimation of Probability Distribution of Variables in Higher Dimensions from Lower Dimensional Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayajit Das '

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x from a known distribution P(y, where X (dimension n, and Y (dimension m have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n ≤ m, and the task is relatively straightforward for well-defined functional relationships. For example, if Y1 and Y2 are independent random variables, each uniform on [0, 1], one can determine the distribution of X = Y1 + Y2; here m = 2 and n = 1. However, biological and physical situations can arise where n > m and the functional relation Y→X is non-unique. In general, in the absence of additional information, there is no unique solution to Q in those cases. Nevertheless, one may still want to draw some inferences about Q. To this end, we propose a novel maximum entropy (MaxEnt approach that estimates Q(x based only on the available data, namely, P(y. The method has the additional advantage that one does not need to explicitly calculate the Lagrange multipliers. In this paper we develop the approach, for both discrete and continuous probability distributions, and demonstrate its validity. We give an intuitive justification as well, and we illustrate with examples.

  7. Processing and Probability Analysis of Pulsed Terahertz NDE of Corrosion under Shuttle Tile Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasi, Robert F.; Madaras, Eric I.; Seebo, Jeffrey P.; Ely, Thomas M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines data processing and probability analysis of pulsed terahertz NDE scans of corrosion defects under a Shuttle tile. Pulsed terahertz data collected from an aluminum plate with fabricated corrosion defects and covered with a Shuttle tile is presented. The corrosion defects imaged were fabricated by electrochemically etching areas of various diameter and depth in the plate. In this work, the aluminum plate echo signal is located in the terahertz time-of-flight data and a threshold is applied to produce a binary image of sample features. Feature location and area are examined and identified as corrosion through comparison with the known defect layout. The results are tabulated with hit, miss, or false call information for a probability of detection analysis that is used to identify an optimal processing threshold.

  8. Serial Spike Time Correlations Affect Probability Distribution of Joint Spike Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Mina; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Pipa, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Detecting the existence of temporally coordinated spiking activity, and its role in information processing in the cortex, has remained a major challenge for neuroscience research. Different methods and approaches have been suggested to test whether the observed synchronized events are significantly different from those expected by chance. To analyze the simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation, these methods typically model the spike trains as a Poisson process implying that the generation of each spike is independent of all the other spikes. However, studies have shown that neural spike trains exhibit dependence among spike sequences, such as the absolute and relative refractory periods which govern the spike probability of the oncoming action potential based on the time of the last spike, or the bursting behavior, which is characterized by short epochs of rapid action potentials, followed by longer episodes of silence. Here we investigate non-renewal processes with the inter-spike interval distribution model that incorporates spike-history dependence of individual neurons. For that, we use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the full shape of the coincidence count distribution and to generate false positives for coincidence detection. The results show that compared to the distributions based on homogeneous Poisson processes, and also non-Poisson processes, the width of the distribution of joint spike events changes. Non-renewal processes can lead to both heavy tailed or narrow coincidence distribution. We conclude that small differences in the exact autostructure of the point process can cause large differences in the width of a coincidence distribution. Therefore, manipulations of the autostructure for the estimation of significance of joint spike events seem to be inadequate.

  9. The effects of radiotherapy treatment uncertainties on the delivered dose distribution and tumour control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, J.T.; Zavgorodni, S.F.; Royal Adelaide Hospital, SA

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty in the precise quantity of radiation dose delivered to tumours in external beam radiotherapy is present due to many factors, and can result in either spatially uniform (Gaussian) or spatially non-uniform dose errors. These dose errors are incorporated into the calculation of tumour control probability (TCP) and produce a distribution of possible TCP values over a population. We also study the effect of inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity on the population distribution of patient TCPs. This study aims to investigate the relative importance of these three uncertainties (spatially uniform dose uncertainty, spatially non-uniform dose uncertainty, and inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity) on the delivered dose and TCP distribution following a typical course of fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The dose distributions used for patient treatments are modelled in one dimension. Geometric positioning uncertainties during and before treatment are considered as shifts of a pre-calculated dose distribution. Following the simulation of a population of patients, distributions of dose across the patient population are used to calculate mean treatment dose, standard deviation in mean treatment dose, mean TCP, standard deviation in TCP, and TCP mode. These parameters are calculated with each of the three uncertainties included separately. The calculations show that the dose errors in the tumour volume are dominated by the spatially uniform component of dose uncertainty. This could be related to machine specific parameters, such as linear accelerator calibration. TCP calculation is affected dramatically by inter-patient variation in the cell sensitivity and to a lesser extent by the spatially uniform dose errors. The positioning errors with the 1.5 cm margins used cause dose uncertainty outside the tumour volume and have a small effect on mean treatment dose (in the tumour volume) and tumour control. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of

  10. Probability distributions of placental morphological measurements and origins of variability of placental shapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yampolsky, M; Salafia, C M; Shlakhter, O

    2013-06-01

    While the mean shape of human placenta is round with centrally inserted umbilical cord, significant deviations from this ideal are fairly common, and may be clinically meaningful. Traditionally, they are explained by trophotropism. We have proposed a hypothesis explaining typical variations in placental shape by randomly determined fluctuations in the growth process of the vascular tree. It has been recently reported that umbilical cord displacement in a birth cohort has a log-normal probability distribution, which indicates that the displacement between an initial point of origin and the centroid of the mature shape is a result of accumulation of random fluctuations of the dynamic growth of the placenta. To confirm this, we investigate statistical distributions of other features of placental morphology. In a cohort of 1023 births at term digital photographs of placentas were recorded at delivery. Excluding cases with velamentous cord insertion, or missing clinical data left 1001 (97.8%) for which placental surface morphology features were measured. Best-fit statistical distributions for them were obtained using EasyFit. The best-fit distributions of umbilical cord displacement, placental disk diameter, area, perimeter, and maximal radius calculated from the cord insertion point are of heavy-tailed type, similar in shape to log-normal distributions. This is consistent with a stochastic origin of deviations of placental shape from normal. Deviations of placental shape descriptors from average have heavy-tailed distributions similar in shape to log-normal. This evidence points away from trophotropism, and towards a spontaneous stochastic evolution of the variants of placental surface shape features. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Simulation of n-qubit quantum systems. IV. Parametrizations of quantum states, matrices and probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, T.; Fritzsche, S.

    2008-11-01

    Entanglement is known today as a key resource in many protocols from quantum computation and quantum information theory. However, despite the successful demonstration of several protocols, such as teleportation or quantum key distribution, there are still many open questions of how entanglement affects the efficiency of quantum algorithms or how it can be protected against noisy environments. The investigation of these and related questions often requires a search or optimization over the set of quantum states and, hence, a parametrization of them and various other objects. To facilitate this kind of studies in quantum information theory, here we present an extension of the FEYNMAN program that was developed during recent years as a toolbox for the simulation and analysis of quantum registers. In particular, we implement parameterizations of hermitian and unitary matrices (of arbitrary order), pure and mixed quantum states as well as separable states. In addition to being a prerequisite for the study of many optimization problems, these parameterizations also provide the necessary basis for heuristic studies which make use of random states, unitary matrices and other objects. Program summaryProgram title: FEYNMAN Catalogue identifier: ADWE_v4_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADWE_v4_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 24 231 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1 416 085 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Maple 11 Computer: Any computer with Maple software installed Operating system: Any system that supports Maple; program has been tested under Microsoft Windows XP, Linux Classification: 4.15 Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes Nature of problem: During the last decades

  12. Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiaojing; Sun, Junying; Kivekäs, Niku; Kristensson, Adam; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Yangmei; Zhang, Lu; Fan, Ruxia; Qi, Xuefei; Ma, Qianli; Zhou, Huaigang

    2018-01-01

    In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF) events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD) data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ) in the North China Plain (NCP), Mt. Tai (TS) in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN) in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100-200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR) and new particle formation rate (J) than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM). At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial extent, relative

  13. Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Shen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ in the North China Plain (NCP, Mt. Tai (TS in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100–200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR and new particle formation rate (J than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM. At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial

  14. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    2012-01-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the......Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set...... with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

  15. Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazumdar Soumya

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

  16. The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Vaněk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a straightforward, flexible and intuitive computational framework for the multi-period probability of default estimation incorporating macroeconomic forecasts. The concept is based on Markov models, the estimated economic adjustment coefficient and the official economic forecasts of the Czech National Bank. The economic forecasts are taken into account in a separate step to better distinguish between idiosyncratic and systemic risk. This approach is also attractive from the interpretational point of view. The proposed framework can be used especially when calculating lifetime expected credit losses under IFRS 9.

  17. On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2017-06-01

    Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

  18. Various models for pion probability distributions from heavy-ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mekjian, A.Z.; Mekjian, A.Z.; Schlei, B.R.; Strottman, D.; Schlei, B.R.

    1998-01-01

    Various models for pion multiplicity distributions produced in relativistic heavy ion collisions are discussed. The models include a relativistic hydrodynamic model, a thermodynamic description, an emitting source pion laser model, and a description which generates a negative binomial description. The approach developed can be used to discuss other cases which will be mentioned. The pion probability distributions for these various cases are compared. Comparison of the pion laser model and Bose-Einstein condensation in a laser trap and with the thermal model are made. The thermal model and hydrodynamic model are also used to illustrate why the number of pions never diverges and why the Bose-Einstein correction effects are relatively small. The pion emission strength η of a Poisson emitter and a critical density η c are connected in a thermal model by η/n c =e -m/T <1, and this fact reduces any Bose-Einstein correction effects in the number and number fluctuation of pions. Fluctuations can be much larger than Poisson in the pion laser model and for a negative binomial description. The clan representation of the negative binomial distribution due to Van Hove and Giovannini is discussed using the present description. Applications to CERN/NA44 and CERN/NA49 data are discussed in terms of the relativistic hydrodynamic model. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  19. Analysis of Observation Data of Earth-Rockfill Dam Based on Cloud Probability Distribution Density Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Liwei

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring data on an earth-rockfill dam constitutes a form of spatial data. Such data include much uncertainty owing to the limitation of measurement information, material parameters, load, geometry size, initial conditions, boundary conditions and the calculation model. So the cloud probability density of the monitoring data must be addressed. In this paper, the cloud theory model was used to address the uncertainty transition between the qualitative concept and the quantitative description. Then an improved algorithm of cloud probability distribution density based on a backward cloud generator was proposed. This was used to effectively convert certain parcels of accurate data into concepts which can be described by proper qualitative linguistic values. Such qualitative description was addressed as cloud numerical characteristics-- {Ex, En, He}, which could represent the characteristics of all cloud drops. The algorithm was then applied to analyze the observation data of a piezometric tube in an earth-rockfill dam. And experiment results proved that the proposed algorithm was feasible, through which, we could reveal the changing regularity of piezometric tube’s water level. And the damage of the seepage in the body was able to be found out.

  20. Scaling of strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures based on atomistic fracture mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Le, Jia-Liang; Bazant, Martin Z.

    2009-01-01

    The failure probability of engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear structures, and ships, as well as microelectronic components and medical implants, must be kept extremely low, typically crack growth, hitherto considered empirical. The theory is further extended to predict the cdf of structural lifetime at constant load, which is shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The size effects on structure strength and lifetime are shown to be related and the latter to be much stronger. The theory fits previously unexplained deviations of experimental strength and lifetime histograms from the Weibull distribution. Finally, a boundary layer method for numerical calculation of the cdf of structural strength and lifetime is outlined. PMID:19561294

  1. Binomial moments of the distance distribution and the probability of undetected error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barg, A. [Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, NJ (United States). Bell Labs.; Ashikhmin, A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1998-09-01

    In [1] K.A.S. Abdel-Ghaffar derives a lower bound on the probability of undetected error for unrestricted codes. The proof relies implicitly on the binomial moments of the distance distribution of the code. The authors use the fact that these moments count the size of subcodes of the code to give a very simple proof of the bound in [1] by showing that it is essentially equivalent to the Singleton bound. They discuss some combinatorial connections revealed by this proof. They also discuss some improvements of this bound. Finally, they analyze asymptotics. They show that an upper bound on the undetected error exponent that corresponds to the bound of [1] improves known bounds on this function.

  2. Scaling of strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures based on atomistic fracture mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazant, Zdenek P; Le, Jia-Liang; Bazant, Martin Z

    2009-07-14

    The failure probability of engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear structures, and ships, as well as microelectronic components and medical implants, must be kept extremely low, typically theory for the strength cdf of quasibrittle structure is refined by deriving it from fracture mechanics of nanocracks propagating by small, activation-energy-controlled, random jumps through the atomic lattice. This refinement also provides a plausible physical justification of the power law for subcritical creep crack growth, hitherto considered empirical. The theory is further extended to predict the cdf of structural lifetime at constant load, which is shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The size effects on structure strength and lifetime are shown to be related and the latter to be much stronger. The theory fits previously unexplained deviations of experimental strength and lifetime histograms from the Weibull distribution. Finally, a boundary layer method for numerical calculation of the cdf of structural strength and lifetime is outlined.

  3. Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

    2008-10-01

    Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

  4. Inhomogeneous broadening of PAC spectra with V{sub zz} and {eta} joint probability distribution functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evenson, W. E.; Adams, M.; Bunker, A.; Hodges, J.; Matheson, P.; Park, T.; Stufflebeam, M. [Utah Valley University, Department of Physics (United States); Zacate, M. O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectrum, G{sub 2}(t), is broadened by the presence of randomly distributed defects in crystals due to a distribution of electric field gradients (EFGs) experienced by probe nuclei. Heuristic approaches to fitting spectra that exhibit such inhomogeneous broadening (ihb) consider only the distribution of EFG magnitudes V{sub zz}, but the physical effect actually depends on the joint probability distribution function (pdf) of V{sub zz} and EFG asymmetry parameter {eta}. The difficulty in determining the joint pdf leads us to more appropriate representations of the EFG coordinates, and to express the joint pdf as the product of two approximately independent pdfs describing each coordinate separately. We have pursued this case in detail using as an initial illustration of the method a simple point defect model with nuclear spin I = 5/2 in several cubic lattices, where G{sub 2}(t) is primarily induced by a defect trapped in the first neighbor shell of a probe and broadening is due to defects distributed at random outside the first neighbor shell. Effects such as lattice relaxation are ignored in this simple test of the method. The simplicity of our model is suitable for gaining insight into ihb with more than V{sub zz} alone. We simulate ihb in this simple case by averaging the net EFGs of 20,000 random defect arrangements, resulting in a broadened average G{sub 2}(t). The 20,000 random cases provide a distribution of EFG components which are first transformed to Czjzek coordinates and then further into the full Czjzek half plane by conformal mapping. The topology of this transformed space yields an approximately separable joint pdf for the EFG components. We then fit the nearly independent pdfs and reconstruct G{sub 2}(t) as a function of defect concentration. We report results for distributions of defects on simple cubic, face-centered cubic, and body-centered cubic lattices. The method explored here for analyzing ihb is

  5. Innovative Meta-Heuristic Approach Application for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. S.; Yoon, S.; Jeong, C.

    2012-12-01

    The primary purpose of frequency analysis in hydrology is to estimate the magnitude of an event with a given frequency of occurrence. The precision of frequency analysis depends on the selection of an appropriate probability distribution model (PDM) and parameter estimation techniques. A number of PDMs have been developed to describe the probability distribution of the hydrological variables. For each of the developed PDMs, estimated parameters are provided based on alternative estimation techniques, such as the method of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), linear function of ranked observations (L-moments), and maximum likelihood (ML). Generally, the results using ML are more reliable than the other methods. However, the ML technique is more laborious than the other methods because an iterative numerical solution, such as the Newton-Raphson method, must be used for the parameter estimation of PDMs. In the meantime, meta-heuristic approaches have been developed to solve various engineering optimization problems (e.g., linear and stochastic, dynamic, nonlinear). These approaches include genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, simulated annealing, tabu searches, and evolutionary computation methods. Meta-heuristic approaches use a stochastic random search instead of a gradient search so that intricate derivative information is unnecessary. Therefore, the meta-heuristic approaches have been shown to be a useful strategy to solve optimization problems in hydrology. A number of studies focus on using meta-heuristic approaches for estimation of hydrological variables with parameter estimation of PDMs. Applied meta-heuristic approaches offer reliable solutions but use more computation time than derivative-based methods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to enhance the meta-heuristic approach for the parameter estimation of PDMs by using a recently developed algorithm known as a harmony search (HS). The performance of the HS is compared to the

  6. Multivesicular release underlies short term synaptic potentiation independent of release probability change in the supraoptic nucleus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle E Quinlan

    Full Text Available Magnocellular neurons of the supraoptic nucleus receive glutamatergic excitatory inputs that regulate the firing activity and hormone release from these neurons. A strong, brief activation of these excitatory inputs induces a lingering barrage of tetrodotoxin-resistant miniature EPSCs (mEPSCs that lasts for tens of minutes. This is known to accompany an immediate increase in large amplitude mEPSCs. However, it remains unknown how long this amplitude increase can last and whether it is simply a byproduct of greater release probability. Using in vitro patch clamp recording on acute rat brain slices, we found that a brief, high frequency stimulation (HFS of afferents induced a potentiation of mEPSC amplitude lasting up to 20 min. This amplitude potentiation did not correlate with changes in mEPSC frequency, suggesting that it does not reflect changes in presynaptic release probability. Nonetheless, neither postsynaptic calcium chelator nor the NMDA receptor antagonist blocked the potentiation. Together with the known calcium dependency of HFS-induced potentiation of mEPSCs, our results imply that mEPSC amplitude increase requires presynaptic calcium. Further analysis showed multimodal distribution of mEPSC amplitude, suggesting that large mEPSCs were due to multivesicular glutamate release, even at late post-HFS when the frequency is no longer elevated. In conclusion, high frequency activation of excitatory synapses induces lasting multivesicular release in the SON, which is independent of changes in release probability. This represents a novel form of synaptic plasticity that may contribute to prolonged excitatory tone necessary for generation of burst firing of magnocellular neurons.

  7. Tree mortality estimates and species distribution probabilities in southeastern United States forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; Zhaofei Fan; Zhen Sui; Michael Crosby; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Theodor D. Leininger; W. Keith Moser

    2017-01-01

    Stresses to trees under a changing climate can lead to changes in forest tree survival, mortality and distribution.  For instance, a study examining the effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity by Hansen and others (2001) predicted a 32% reduction in loblolly–shortleaf pine habitat across the eastern United States.  However, they also...

  8. Outage Probability of MRC for κ-μ Shadowed Fading Channels under Co-Channel Interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Changfang; Shu, Minglei; Wang, Yinglong; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Chongqing

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, exact closed-form expressions are derived for the outage probability (OP) of the maximal ratio combining (MRC) scheme in the κ-μ shadowed fading channels, in which both the independent and correlated shadowing components are considered. The scenario assumes the received desired signals are corrupted by the independent Rayleigh-faded co-channel interference (CCI) and background white Gaussian noise. To this end, first, the probability density function (PDF) of the κ-μ shadowed fading distribution is obtained in the form of a power series. Then the incomplete generalized moment-generating function (IG-MGF) of the received signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) is derived in the closed form. By using the IG-MGF results, closed-form expressions for the OP of MRC scheme are obtained over the κ-μ shadowed fading channels. Simulation results are included to validate the correctness of the analytical derivations. These new statistical results can be applied to the modeling and analysis of several wireless communication systems, such as body centric communications.

  9. Gravity or turbulence? - II. Evolving column density probability distribution functions in molecular clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros-Paredes, Javier; Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique; Gazol, Adriana; Hartmann, Lee W.; Heitsch, Fabian; Colín, Pedro

    2011-09-01

    It has been recently shown that molecular clouds do not exhibit a unique shape for the column density probability distribution function (N-PDF). Instead, clouds without star formation seem to possess a lognormal distribution, while clouds with active star formation develop a power-law tail at high column densities. The lognormal behaviour of the N-PDF has been interpreted in terms of turbulent motions dominating the dynamics of the clouds, while the power-law behaviour occurs when the cloud is dominated by gravity. In the present contribution, we use thermally bi-stable numerical simulations of cloud formation and evolution to show that, indeed, these two regimes can be understood in terms of the formation and evolution of molecular clouds: a very narrow lognormal regime appears when the cloud is being assembled. However, as the global gravitational contraction occurs, the initial density fluctuations are enhanced, resulting, first, in a wider lognormal N-PDF, and later, in a power-law N-PDF. We thus suggest that the observed N-PDF of molecular clouds are a manifestation of their global gravitationally contracting state. We also show that, contrary to recent suggestions, the exact value of the power-law slope is not unique, as it depends on the projection in which the cloud is being observed.

  10. PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF DEPRESSIVE EPISODES: APPLICATION OF RENEWAL THEORY UNDER UNIFORM PROBABILITY LAW.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runjun Phookun

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The renewal process has been formulated on the basis of hazard rate of time between two consecutive occurrences of depressive episodes. The probabilistic analysis of depressive episodes can be performed under various forms of hazard rate viz. constant, linear etc. In this paper we are considering a particular form of hazard rate which is h(x=(b-x^- where b is a constant, x is the time between two consecutive episodes of depression. As a result time between two consecutive occurrences of depressive episodes follows uniform distribution in (a,b The distribution of range i.e. the difference between the longest and the shortest occurrence time to a depressive episode, and the expected number of depressive episodes in a random interval of time are obtained for the distribution under consideration. If the closed form of expression for the waiting time distribution is not available, then the Laplace transformation is used for the study of probabilistic analysis. Hazard rate of occurrence and expected number of depressive episodes have been presented graphically

  11. Coverage probability of cellular networks using interference alignment under imperfect CSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul F. Guiazon

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Interference alignment (IA is well understood to approach the capacity of interference channels, and believed to be crucial in cellular networks in which the ability to control and exploit interference is key. However, the achievable performance of IA in cellular networks depends on the quality of channel state information (CSI and how effective IA is in practical settings is not known. This paper studies the use of IA to mitigate inter-cell interference of cellular networks under imperfect CSI conditions. Our analysis is based on stochastic geometry where the structure of the base station (BS locations is considered by a Poisson point process (PPP. Our main contribution is the coverage probability of the network and simulation results confirm the accuracy.

  12. Changes in tropical precipitation cluster size distributions under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Quinn, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a tropical storm or other precipitation feature (contiguous clusters of precipitation exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance. To establish baseline behavior in current climate, the probability distribution of cluster sizes from multiple satellite retrievals and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is compared to those from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM-360 and -180). With the caveat that a minimum rain rate threshold is important in the models (which tend to overproduce low rain rates), the models agree well with observations in leading properties. In particular, scale-free power law ranges in which the probability drops slowly with increasing cluster size are well modeled, followed by a rapid drop in probability of the largest clusters above a cutoff scale. Under the RCP 8.5 global warming scenario, the models indicate substantial increases in probability (up to an order of magnitude) of the largest clusters by the end of century. For models with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial spread on when these probability increases for the largest precipitation clusters should be detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only in the second half of the century. Examination of NCEP reanalysis and SSMI/SSMIS series of satellite retrievals from 1979 to present does not yield reliable evidence of trends at this time. The results suggest improvements in inter-satellite calibration of the SSMI/SSMIS retrievals could aid future detection.

  13. Characterizing the Lyman-alpha forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieplak, Agnieszka; Slosar, Anze

    2018-01-01

    The Lyman-alpha forest has become a powerful cosmological probe at intermediate redshift. It is a highly non-linear field with much information present beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability flux distribution (PDF) in particular has been a successful probe of small scale physics. However, it is also sensitive to pixel noise, spectrum resolution, and continuum fitting, all of which lead to possible biased estimators. Here we argue that measuring the coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. Since the n-th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments of the field, this allows for the coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allows for a clear route towards marginalization over the mean flux. Additionally, in the presence of noise, a finite number of these coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the information into a small amount of well-measured quantities. Finally, we find that measuring fewer quasars with high signal-to-noise produces a higher amount of recoverable information.

  14. Multiple Streaming and the Probability Distribution of Density in Redshift Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Lam; Kofman, Lev; Shandarin, Sergei F.

    2000-07-01

    We examine several aspects of redshift distortions by expressing the redshift-space density in terms of the eigenvalues and orientation of the local Lagrangian deformation tensor. We explore the importance of multiple streaming using the Zeldovich approximation (ZA), and compute the average number of streams in both real and redshift space. We find that multiple streaming can be significant in redshift space but negligible in real space, even at moderate values of the linear fluctuation amplitude (σlreal-space counterparts, redshift-space multiple streams can flow past each other with minimal interactions. Such nonlinear redshift-space effects, which are physically distinct from the fingers-of-God due to small-scale virialized motions, might in part explain the well-known departure of redshift distortions from the classic linear prediction by Kaiser, even at relatively large scales where the corresponding density field in real space is well described by linear perturbation theory. We also compute, using the ZA, the probability distribution function (PDF) of the density, as well as S3, in real and redshift space, and compare it with the PDF measured from N-body simulations. The role of caustics in defining the character of the high-density tail is examined. We find that (non-Lagrangian) smoothing, due to both finite resolution or discreteness and small-scale velocity dispersions, is very effective in erasing caustic structures, unless the initial power spectrum is sufficiently truncated.

  15. Exact probability distributions of selected species in stochastic chemical reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Caamal, Fernando; Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T

    2014-09-01

    Chemical reactions are discrete, stochastic events. As such, the species' molecular numbers can be described by an associated master equation. However, handling such an equation may become difficult due to the large size of reaction networks. A commonly used approach to forecast the behaviour of reaction networks is to perform computational simulations of such systems and analyse their outcome statistically. This approach, however, might require high computational costs to provide accurate results. In this paper we opt for an analytical approach to obtain the time-dependent solution of the Chemical Master Equation for selected species in a general reaction network. When the reaction networks are composed exclusively of zeroth and first-order reactions, this analytical approach significantly alleviates the computational burden required by simulation-based methods. By building upon these analytical solutions, we analyse a general monomolecular reaction network with an arbitrary number of species to obtain the exact marginal probability distribution for selected species. Additionally, we study two particular topologies of monomolecular reaction networks, namely (i) an unbranched chain of monomolecular reactions with and without synthesis and degradation reactions and (ii) a circular chain of monomolecular reactions. We illustrate our methodology and alternative ways to use it for non-linear systems by analysing a protein autoactivation mechanism. Later, we compare the computational load required for the implementation of our results and a pure computational approach to analyse an unbranched chain of monomolecular reactions. Finally, we study calcium ions gates in the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum mediated by ryanodine receptors.

  16. Characterizing the Lyα forest flux probability distribution function using Legendre polynomials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Slosar, Anže, E-mail: acieplak@bnl.gov, E-mail: anze@bnl.gov [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Bldg 510, Upton, NY, 11973 (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The Lyman-α forest is a highly non-linear field with considerable information available in the data beyond the power spectrum. The flux probability distribution function (PDF) has been used as a successful probe of small-scale physics. In this paper we argue that measuring coefficients of the Legendre polynomial expansion of the PDF offers several advantages over measuring the binned values as is commonly done. In particular, the n -th Legendre coefficient can be expressed as a linear combination of the first n moments, allowing these coefficients to be measured in the presence of noise and allowing a clear route for marginalisation over mean flux. Moreover, in the presence of noise, our numerical work shows that a finite number of coefficients are well measured with a very sharp transition into noise dominance. This compresses the available information into a small number of well-measured quantities. We find that the amount of recoverable information is a very non-linear function of spectral noise that strongly favors fewer quasars measured at better signal to noise.

  17. Pattern recognition in spaces of probability distributions for the analysis of edge-localized modes in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shabbir, Aqsa

    2016-01-01

    paradigms (parametric and non-parametric) are explored and put to use. Discriminant analysis (DA) is used for determining a linear separation boundary between type I and III ELMs in terms of global plasma parameters, which can then be used for the prediction of ELM types as well as the study of ELM occurrence boundaries and ELM physics. However, DA makes an assumption about the underlying class distribution and presently cannot be applied in spaces of probability distributions, leading to a sub-optimal treatment of stochasticity. This is circumvented by the use of GD-based CP and kNN classifiers. CP provides estimates of its own accuracy and reliability and kNN is a simple, yet powerful classifier of ELM types. It is shown that a classification based on the distribution of ELM properties, namely inter-ELM time intervals and the distribution of global plasma parameters, is more informative and accurate than the classification based on average parameter values. (iii) Finally, the correlation between ELM energy loss (ELM size) and ELM waiting times (inverse ELM frequency) is studied for individual ELMs in a set of plasmas from the JET tokamak upgraded with the ITER-like wall (ILW). The analysis finds that for individual ELMs the correlation between ELM energy loss and waiting times varies from zero to a moderately positive value. A comparison is made with the results from a set of carbon-wall (CW) JET plasmas and nitrogen-seeded ILW JET plasmas. It is found that a high correlation between ELM energy loss and waiting time comparable to CW plasmas is only found in nitrogen-seeded ILW plasmas. Furthermore, most of the unseeded JET ILW plasmas have ELMs that are followed by a second phase referred to as the slow transport event (STE). The effect of the STEs on the distribution of ELM durations is studied, as well as their influence on the correlation between ELM energy loss and waiting times.

  18. EDF: Computing electron number probability distribution functions in real space from molecular wave functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, E.; Pendás, A. Martín; Blanco, M. A.

    2008-04-01

    Given an N-electron molecule and an exhaustive partition of the real space ( R) into m arbitrary regions Ω,Ω,…,Ω ( ⋃i=1mΩ=R), the edf program computes all the probabilities P(n,n,…,n) of having exactly n electrons in Ω, n electrons in Ω,…, and n electrons ( n+n+⋯+n=N) in Ω. Each Ω may correspond to a single basin (atomic domain) or several such basins (functional group). In the later case, each atomic domain must belong to a single Ω. The program can manage both single- and multi-determinant wave functions which are read in from an aimpac-like wave function description ( .wfn) file (T.A. Keith et al., The AIMPAC95 programs, http://www.chemistry.mcmaster.ca/aimpac, 1995). For multi-determinantal wave functions a generalization of the original .wfn file has been introduced. The new format is completely backwards compatible, adding to the previous structure a description of the configuration interaction (CI) coefficients and the determinants of correlated wave functions. Besides the .wfn file, edf only needs the overlap integrals over all the atomic domains between the molecular orbitals (MO). After the P(n,n,…,n) probabilities are computed, edf obtains from them several magnitudes relevant to chemical bonding theory, such as average electronic populations and localization/delocalization indices. Regarding spin, edf may be used in two ways: with or without a splitting of the P(n,n,…,n) probabilities into α and β spin components. Program summaryProgram title: edf Catalogue identifier: AEAJ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEAJ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5387 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 52 381 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 77 Computer

  19. The probability distribution of maintenance cost of a system affected by the gamma process of degradation: Finite time solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Tianjin; Pandey, Mahesh D.; Weide, J.A.M. van der

    2012-01-01

    The stochastic gamma process has been widely used to model uncertain degradation in engineering systems and structures. The optimization of the condition-based maintenance (CBM) policy is typically based on the minimization of the asymptotic cost rate. In the financial planning of a maintenance program, however, a more accurate prediction interval for the cost is needed for prudent decision making. The prediction interval cannot be estimated unless the probability distribution of cost is known. In this context, the asymptotic cost rate has a limited utility. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distribution of maintenance cost, when the system degradation is modelled as a stochastic gamma process. A renewal equation is formulated to derive the characteristic function, then the discrete Fourier transform of the characteristic function leads to the complete probability distribution of cost in a finite time setting. The proposed approach is useful for a precise estimation of prediction limits and optimization of the maintenance cost.

  20. The Valuation of Insurance under Uncertainty: Does Information about Probability Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Carmela Di Mauro; Anna Maffioletti

    2001-01-01

    In a laboratory experiment we test the hypothesis that consumers' valuation of insurance is sensitive to the amount of information available on the probability of a potential loss. In order to test this hypothesis we simulate a market in which we elicit individuals' willingness to pay to insure against a loss characterised either by known or else vague probabilities. We use two distinct treatments by providing subjects with different information over the vague probabilities of loss. In genera...

  1. K Coverage Probability of 5G Wireless Cognitive Radio Network under Shadow Fading Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur S. Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Land mobile communication is burdened with typical propagation constraints due to the channel characteristics in radio systems.Also,the propagation characteristics vary form place to place and also as the mobile unit moves,from time to time.Hence,the tramsmission path between transmitter and receiver varies from simple direct LOS to the one which is severely obstructed by buildings,foliage and terrain.Multipath propagation and shadow fading effects affect the signal strength of an arbitrary Transmitter-Receiver due to the rapid fluctuations in the phase and amplitude of signal which also determines the average power over an area of tens or hundreds of meters.Shadowing introduces additional fluctuations,so the received local mean power varies around the area –mean.The present section deals with the performance analysis of fifth generation wireless cognitive radio network on the basis of signal and interference level based k coverage probability under the shadow fading effects.

  2. The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R.; Maloney, Laurence T.

    2011-01-01

    In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent motor lotteries. The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject’s noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks where information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks where probability was implicit in the subjects’ own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk. PMID:21677166

  3. A generalized electron energy probability function for inductively coupled plasmas under conditions of nonlocal electron kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouchtouris, S.; Kokkoris, G.

    2018-01-01

    A generalized equation for the electron energy probability function (EEPF) of inductively coupled Ar plasmas is proposed under conditions of nonlocal electron kinetics and diffusive cooling. The proposed equation describes the local EEPF in a discharge and the independent variable is the kinetic energy of electrons. The EEPF consists of a bulk and a depleted tail part and incorporates the effect of the plasma potential, Vp, and pressure. Due to diffusive cooling, the break point of the EEPF is eVp. The pressure alters the shape of the bulk and the slope of the tail part. The parameters of the proposed EEPF are extracted by fitting to measure EEPFs (at one point in the reactor) at different pressures. By coupling the proposed EEPF with a hybrid plasma model, measurements in the gaseous electronics conference reference reactor concerning (a) the electron density and temperature and the plasma potential, either spatially resolved or at different pressure (10-50 mTorr) and power, and (b) the ion current density of the electrode, are well reproduced. The effect of the choice of the EEPF on the results is investigated by a comparison to an EEPF coming from the Boltzmann equation (local electron kinetics approach) and to a Maxwellian EEPF. The accuracy of the results and the fact that the proposed EEPF is predefined renders its use a reliable alternative with a low computational cost compared to stochastic electron kinetic models at low pressure conditions, which can be extended to other gases and/or different electron heating mechanisms.

  4. Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Rourke, Patrick Francis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

  5. Unified Formulation of Single- and Multimoment Normalizations of the Raindrop Size Distribution Based on the Gamma Probability Density Function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, N.; Delrieu, G.; Boudevillain, Brice; Hazenberg, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This study offers a unified formulation of single- and multimoment normalizations of the raindrop size distribution (DSD), which have been proposed in the framework of scaling analyses in the literature. The key point is to consider a well-defined “general distribution” g(x) as the probability

  6. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

    2001-01-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards

  7. Optimal skill distribution under convex skill costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tin Cheuk Leung

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies optimal distribution of skills in an optimal income tax framework with convex skill constraints. The problem is cast as a social planning problem where a redistributive planner chooses how to distribute a given amount of aggregate skills across people. We find that optimal skill distribution is either perfectly equal or perfectly unequal, but an interior level of skill inequality is never optimal.

  8. Optimization of Distributed Crawler under Hadoop

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Xiaochen; Xian Ming

    2015-01-01

    Web crawler is an important link in the data acquisition of the World Wide Web. It is necessary to optimize traditional methods so as to meet the current needs in the face of the explosive growth of data. This paper introduces the process and the model of the current distributed crawler based on Hadoop, analyzes reasons for influencing the crawling efficiency, and points out defects of the parameter setting, the Urls distribution and the operating model of distributed crawler. The working eff...

  9. Estimation of Extreme Responses and Failure Probability of Wind Turbines under Normal Operation by Controlled Monte Carlo Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri

    by the indicated so-called crude Monte Carlo method. With failure probabilities of the magnitude 10−7 during a 10 min. sampling interval the tails of the distributions are never encountered during normal operations. To circumvent this problem the application of variance reduction Monte Carlo methods i...... an alternative approach for estimation of the first excursion probability of any system is based on calculating the evolution of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the process and integrating it on the specified domain. Clearly this provides the most accurate results among the three classes of the methods......Extreme value predictions for application in wind turbine design are often based on asymptotic results. Assuming that the extreme values of a wind turbine responses, i.e. maximum values of the mud-line moment or blades’ root stress, follow a certain but unknown probability density (mass...

  10. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  11. Chaos optimization algorithms based on chaotic maps with different probability distribution and search speed for global optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dixiong; Liu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Jilei

    2014-04-01

    Chaos optimization algorithms (COAs) usually utilize the chaotic map like Logistic map to generate the pseudo-random numbers mapped as the design variables for global optimization. Many existing researches indicated that COA can more easily escape from the local minima than classical stochastic optimization algorithms. This paper reveals the inherent mechanism of high efficiency and superior performance of COA, from a new perspective of both the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences generated by different chaotic maps. The statistical property and search speed of chaotic sequences are represented by the probability density function (PDF) and the Lyapunov exponent, respectively. Meanwhile, the computational performances of hybrid chaos-BFGS algorithms based on eight one-dimensional chaotic maps with different PDF and Lyapunov exponents are compared, in which BFGS is a quasi-Newton method for local optimization. Moreover, several multimodal benchmark examples illustrate that, the probability distribution property and search speed of chaotic sequences from different chaotic maps significantly affect the global searching capability and optimization efficiency of COA. To achieve the high efficiency of COA, it is recommended to adopt the appropriate chaotic map generating the desired chaotic sequences with uniform or nearly uniform probability distribution and large Lyapunov exponent.

  12. Uncertainty of Hydrological Drought Characteristics with Copula Functions and Probability Distributions: A Case Study of Weihe River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panpan Zhao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological droughts frequencies and severity in the Weihe Basin, China during 1960–2012, by using six commonly used univariate probability distributions and three Archimedean copulas to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought characteristics. The Anderson-Darling method is used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC is applied to select the best distribution and copula functions. The results demonstrate that there is a very strong correlation between drought duration and drought severity in three stations. The drought return period varies depending on the selected marginal distributions and copula functions and, with an increase of the return period, the differences become larger. In addition, the estimated return periods (both co-occurrence and joint from the best-fitted copulas are the closet to those from empirical distribution. Therefore, it is critical to select the appropriate marginal distribution and copula function to model the hydrological drought frequency and severity. The results of this study can not only help drought investigation to select a suitable probability distribution and copulas function, but are also useful for regional water resource management. However, a few limitations remain in this study, such as the assumption of stationary of runoff series.

  13. Metal Distribution and Mobility under alkaline conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dario, Maarten

    2004-01-01

    The adsorption of an element, expressed as its distribution between liquid (aquatic) and solid phases in the bio geosphere, largely determines its mobility and transport properties. This is of fundamental importance in the assessment of the performance of e.g. geologic repositories for hazardous elements like radionuclides. Geologic repositories for low and intermediate level nuclear waste will most likely be based on concrete constructions in a suitable bedrock, leading to a local chemical environment with pH well above 12. At this pH metal adsorption is very high, and thus the mobility is hindered. Organic complexing agents, such as natural humic matter from the ground and in the groundwater, as well as components in the waste (cleaning agents, degradation products from ion exchange resins and cellulose, cement additives etc.) would affect the sorption properties of the various elements in the waste. Trace element migration from a cementitious repository through the pH- and salinity gradient created around the repository would be affected by the presence and creation of particulate matter (colloids) that may serve as carriers that enhance the mobility. The objective of this thesis was to describe and quantify the sorption of some selected elements representative of spent nuclear fuel (Eu, Am) and other heavy metals (Zn, Cd, Hg) in a clay/cement environment (pH 10-13) and in the pH-gradient outside this environment. The potential of organic complexing agents and colloids to enhance metal migration was also investigated. It was shown that many organic ligands are able to reduce trace metal sorption under these conditions. It was not possible to calculate the effect of well-defined organic ligands on the metal sorption in a cement environment by using stability constants from the literature. A simple method for comparing the effect of different complexing agents on metal sorption is, however, suggested. The stability in terms of the particle size of suspended

  14. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2001-07-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards.

  15. Optimization of Distributed Crawler under Hadoop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Xiaochen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Web crawler is an important link in the data acquisition of the World Wide Web. It is necessary to optimize traditional methods so as to meet the current needs in the face of the explosive growth of data. This paper introduces the process and the model of the current distributed crawler based on Hadoop, analyzes reasons for influencing the crawling efficiency, and points out defects of the parameter setting, the Urls distribution and the operating model of distributed crawler. The working efficiency is improved through the optimization of parameters configuration and the optimizing effect is further enhanced through the model modification. The experiment indicates that the working efficiency of the distributed crawler after the optimization is increased by 23%, which achieves the expected result.

  16. Combining Marginal Probability Distributions via Minimization of Weighted Sum of Kullback-Leibler Divergences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kracík, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 6 (2011), s. 659-671 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : combining probabilities * Kullback-Leibler divergence * maximum likelihood * expert opinions * linear opinion pool Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.948, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/kracik-0359399.pdf

  17. Some families of generalized Mathieu-type power series, associated probability distributions and related functional inequalities involving complete monotonicity and log-convexity

    OpenAIRE

    Tomovski, Zivorad; Mehrez, Khaled

    2016-01-01

    By making use of the familiar Mathieu series and its generalizations, the authors derive a number of new integral representations and present a systematic study of probability density functions and probability distributions associated with some generalizations of the Mathieu series. In particular, the mathematical expectation, variance and the characteristic functions, related to the probability density functions of the considered probability distributions are derived. As a consequence, some ...

  18. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  19. Spline Smoothing for Estimation of Circular Probability Distributions via Spectral Isomorphism and its Spatial Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kinjal; Sengupta, Debapriya

    2012-01-01

    Consider the problem when $X_1,X_2,..., X_n$ are distributed on a circle following an unknown distribution $F$ on $S^1$. In this article we have consider the absolute general set-up where the density can have local features such as discontinuities and edges. Furthermore, there can be outlying data which can follow some discrete distributions. The traditional Kernel Density Estimation methods fail to identify such local features in the data. Here we device a non-parametric density estimate on ...

  20. Exponentiated Weibull distribution family under aperture averaging for Gaussian beam waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Ricardo; Dios, Federico

    2012-06-04

    Nowadays, the search for a distribution capable of modeling the probability density function (PDF) of irradiance data under all conditions of atmospheric turbulence in the presence of aperture averaging still continues. Here, a family of PDFs alternative to the widely accepted Log-Normal and Gamma-Gamma distributions is proposed to model the PDF of the received optical power in free-space optical communications, namely, the Weibull and the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution. Particularly, it is shown how the proposed EW distribution offers an excellent fit to simulation and experimental data under all aperture averaging conditions, under weak and moderate turbulence conditions, as well as for point-like apertures. Another very attractive property of these distributions is the simple closed form expression of their respective PDF and cumulative distribution function.

  1. Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

    2016-01-01

    We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

  2. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  3. Conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M image reconstruction algorithm for neutron stimulated emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viana, R.S.; Yoriyaz, H.; Santos, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is an iterative computational method for maximum likelihood (M-L) estimates, useful in a variety of incomplete-data problems. Due to its stochastic nature, one of the most relevant applications of E-M algorithm is the reconstruction of emission tomography images. In this paper, the statistical formulation of the E-M algorithm was applied to the in vivo spectrographic imaging of stable isotopes called Neutron Stimulated Emission Computed Tomography (NSECT). In the process of E-M algorithm iteration, the conditional probability distribution plays a very important role to achieve high quality image. This present work proposes an alternative methodology for the generation of the conditional probability distribution associated to the E-M reconstruction algorithm, using the Monte Carlo code MCNP5 and with the application of the reciprocity theorem. (author)

  4. Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmquist, R.

    1976-01-01

    A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

  5. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  6. Application of the full 3-D collision probability method to randomly distributed spherical fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lajoie, M-A.; Marleau, G.

    2010-01-01

    The analysis of VHTR fuel tends to be difficult when using deterministic methods currently employed in lattice codes notably because of limitations on geometry representation and the stochastic positioning of spherical elements. The method proposed here and implemented in the lattice code DRAGON is to generate the positions of multi-layered spheres using random sequential addition, and to analyze the resulting geometry using a full three-dimensional spherical collision probability method. The preliminary validation runs are consistent with results obtained using a Monte-Carlo method, for both regularly and randomly positioned pins. (author)

  7. Void probability as a function of the void's shape and scale-invariant models. [in studies of spacial galactic distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizalde, E.; Gaztanaga, E.

    1992-01-01

    The dependence of counts in cells on the shape of the cell for the large scale galaxy distribution is studied. A very concrete prediction can be done concerning the void distribution for scale invariant models. The prediction is tested on a sample of the CfA catalog, and good agreement is found. It is observed that the probability of a cell to be occupied is bigger for some elongated cells. A phenomenological scale invariant model for the observed distribution of the counts in cells, an extension of the negative binomial distribution, is presented in order to illustrate how this dependence can be quantitatively determined. An original, intuitive derivation of this model is presented.

  8. Multiparameter probability distributions for heavy rainfall modeling in extreme southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Beskow

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The Anderson–Darling and Filliben tests were the most restrictive in this study. Based on the Anderson–Darling test, it was found that the Kappa distribution presented the best performance, followed by the GEV. This finding provides evidence that these multiparameter distributions result, for the region of study, in greater accuracy for the generation of intensity–duration–frequency curves and the prediction of peak streamflows and design hydrographs. As a result, this finding can support the design of hydraulic structures and flood management in river basins.

  9. Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brommer, Jon E.; Korsten, Peter; Bouwman, Karen A.; Berg, Mathew L.; Komdeur, Jan

    2007-01-01

    A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review

  10. Sampling informative/complex a priori probability distributions using Gibbs sampling assisted by sequential simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

    2010-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis algorithm can be used to sample the solutions to non-linear inverse problems. In principle these methods allow incorporation of arbitrarily complex a priori information, but current methods allow only relatively simple...... priors to be used. We demonstrate how sequential simulation can be seen as an application of the Gibbs sampler, and how such a Gibbs sampler assisted by sequential simulation can be used to perform a random walk generating realizations of a relatively complex random function. We propose to combine...... this algorithm with the Metropolis algorithm to obtain an efficient method for sampling posterior probability densities for nonlinear inverse problems....

  11. Higher Moments of Underlying Event Distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zhen

    2017-01-01

    We perform an Underlying Event analysis for real data sets from pp collisions at center of mass energy $ \\sqrt{s}=5 $ and 13 TeV and pPb collisions at $ \\sqrt{s}=7 $ TeV at the LHC, together with the Monte Carlo data sets generated with Pythia8 and EPOS in the same conditions. The analysis is focused on the transverse region which is more sensitive to the Underlying Event, and performed as a function of the leading track transverse - momentum $p_t$ in each event. In our work, not only the average underlying event activity but also its fluctuation, namely its root mean square (RMS), Skewness and Kurtosis, are analyzed. We find that the particle density, energy density and their fluctuation magnitude (RMS) are suppressed at leading $p_t\\approx$ 5 GeV/c for all these cases, with EPOS having evident deviation of 10\\%-25\\%. The higher moments skewness and kurtosis decrease rapidly in low leading $p_t$ region, and follow an interesting Gaussian-like peak centered at leading $p_t\\approx$ 15 GeV/c.

  12. Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betrie, Getnet D; Sadiq, Rehan; Nichol, Craig; Morin, Kevin A; Tesfamariam, Solomon

    2016-01-15

    Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a major environmental problem that poses significant environmental risks during and after mining activities. A new methodology for environmental risk assessment based on probability bounds and a geochemical speciation model (PHREEQC) is presented. The methodology provides conservative and non-conservative ways of estimating risk of heavy metals posed to selected endpoints probabilistically, while propagating data and parameter uncertainties throughout the risk assessment steps. The methodology is demonstrated at a minesite located in British Columbia, Canada. The result of the methodology for the case study minesite shows the fate-and-transport of heavy metals is well simulated in the mine environment. In addition, the results of risk characterization for the case study show that there is risk due to transport of heavy metals into the environment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Name-letter branding under scrutiny: real products, new algorithms, and the probability of buying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieger, Stefan

    2010-06-01

    People like letters matching their own first and last name initials more than nonname letters. This name-letter effect has also been found for brands, i.e., people like brands resembling their own name letters (initial or first three). This has been termed name-letter branding effect. In the present study of 199 participants, ages 12 to 79 years, this name-letter branding effect was found for a modified design (1) using real products, (2) concentrating on product names rather than brand names, (3) using five different products for each letter of the Roman alphabet, (4) asking for the buying probability, and (5) using recently introduced algorithms, controlling for individual response tendencies (i.e., liking all letters more or less) and general normative popularity of particular letters (i.e., some letters are generally preferred more than other letters).

  14. Image denoising in bidimensional empirical mode decomposition domain: the role of Student's probability distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-03-01

    Hybridisation of the bi-dimensional empirical mode decomposition (BEMD) with denoising techniques has been proposed in the literature as an effective approach for image denoising. In this Letter, the Student's probability density function is introduced in the computation of the mean envelope of the data during the BEMD sifting process to make it robust to values that are far from the mean. The resulting BEMD is denoted tBEMD. In order to show the effectiveness of the tBEMD, several image denoising techniques in tBEMD domain are employed; namely, fourth order partial differential equation (PDE), linear complex diffusion process (LCDP), non-linear complex diffusion process (NLCDP), and the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). Two biomedical images and a standard digital image were considered for experiments. The original images were corrupted with additive Gaussian noise with three different levels. Based on peak-signal-to-noise ratio, the experimental results show that PDE, LCDP, NLCDP, and DWT all perform better in the tBEMD than in the classical BEMD domain. It is also found that tBEMD is faster than classical BEMD when the noise level is low. When it is high, the computational cost in terms of processing time is similar. The effectiveness of the presented approach makes it promising for clinical applications.

  15. Predicting Ligand Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces by 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Jhih-Wei; Elumalai, Pavadai; Pitti, Thejkiran; Wu, Chih Yuan; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Peng, Hung-Pin; Yang, An-Suei

    2016-01-01

    Predicting ligand binding sites (LBSs) on protein structures, which are obtained either from experimental or computational methods, is a useful first step in functional annotation or structure-based drug design for the protein structures. In this work, the structure-based machine learning algorithm ISMBLab-LIG was developed to predict LBSs on protein surfaces with input attributes derived from the three-dimensional probability density maps of interacting atoms, which were reconstructed on the query protein surfaces and were relatively insensitive to local conformational variations of the tentative ligand binding sites. The prediction accuracy of the ISMBLab-LIG predictors is comparable to that of the best LBS predictors benchmarked on several well-established testing datasets. More importantly, the ISMBLab-LIG algorithm has substantial tolerance to the prediction uncertainties of computationally derived protein structure models. As such, the method is particularly useful for predicting LBSs not only on experimental protein structures without known LBS templates in the database but also on computationally predicted model protein structures with structural uncertainties in the tentative ligand binding sites. PMID:27513851

  16. The effect of vertical velocity probability distribution shape on cloud activation of aerosols: off-line calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonttila, J.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Räisänen, P.; Kokkola, H.; Järvinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    Off-line calculations of cloud activation of aerosols using a probability density function (PDF) for vertical velocity (w) are performed. The focus is on the variation of the shape of the PDF using two functional formulations: the Normal distribution PDF and the Pearson type IV PDF. The Normal distribution provides a familiar example, as it has been widely used to approximate vertical velocity distributions in numerous applications, including climate models. Pearson type IV distribution provides an alternative that, to our knowledge, has not been employed before to describe the vertical velocity PDF. The advantage of the Pearson distribution is its versatility in representing skewed and more peaked distribution shapes compared to the Normal distribution, though this is obtained at the expense of increased mathematical complexity. The experiments are performed using a box model, in which the environmental conditions, including the aerosol size distribution (bi-modal) and chemical composition (ammonium-sulphate particles) are prescribed as constants. Measured size distributions comprising clean and polluted cases are used. Cloud activation of aerosols is calculated by integrating over the positive side of the PDF of w, which yields the mean number of activated particles (Nact). The mean, variance, and skewness of the PDFs along with the type of the PDF itself are altered in order to explore the effect of the PDF shape on the activation process. All experiments are repeated for three well-documented activation parameterizations: Lin & Leaitch, Abdul-Razzak & Ghan and Fountoukis & Nenes. The results show that for symmetric distributions of w (skewness = 0) there is a maximum difference of 10-15 % in Nact between the cases with w given by the Normal distribution, and the more peaked Pearson distribution. The largest differences are seen for the most polluted cases. Nact in clean cases will saturate rather quickly with respect to the maximum supersaturation and, hence

  17. Nonparametric Bayes Estimation of Distribution Functions and the Study of Probability Density Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-30

    AO AObS 250 SOUTH CARO.INA UNIV COLUNSIA DEPT OF MATHENATICS CON--ETC V/6 12/I1 NONPARANETRIC BAYES ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS AND TH-rTCM...WeiF4964 79-C -4YF 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 0NT. SK ~ University of South Carolina, Department of IL . - Mathematics, Computer ...powerful than the sign test. The power of the test was compared with that of the sign test by computer simulations using the Marshall-Olkin bivariate

  18. Confidence limits with multiple channels and arbitrary probability distributions for sensitivity and expected background

    CERN Document Server

    Perrotta, A

    2002-01-01

    A MC method is proposed to compute upper limits, in a pure Bayesian approach, when the errors associated with the experimental sensitivity and expected background content are not Gaussian distributed or not small enough to apply usual approximations. It is relatively easy to extend the procedure to the multichannel case (for instance when different decay branching, luminosities or experiments have to be combined). Some of the searches for supersymmetric particles performed in the DELPHI experiment at the LEP electron- positron collider use such a procedure to propagate systematics into the calculation of cross-section upper limits. One of these searches is described as an example. (6 refs).

  19. Uranium concentration and distribution in six peridotite inclusions of probable mantle origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, E. L.; Zartman, R. E.

    1973-01-01

    Fission-track activation was used to investigate uranium concentration and distribution in peridotite inclusions in alkali basalt from six localities. Whole-rock uranium concentrations range from 24 to 82 ng/g. Most of the uranium is uniformly distributed in the major silicate phases - olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene. Chromian spinels may be classified into two groups on the basis of their uranium content - those which have less than 10 ng/g and those which have 100 to 150 ng/g U. In one sample accessory hydrous phases, phlogopite and hornblende, contain 130 and 300 ng/g U, respectively. The contact between the inclusion and the host basalt is usually quite sharp. Glassy or microcrystalline veinlets found in some samples contain more than 1 microgram/g. Very little uranium is associated with microcrystals of apatite. These results agree with some earlier investigators, who have concluded that suboceanic peridotites contain too little uranium to account for normal oceanic heat flow by conduction alone.

  20. Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA. For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland. The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is

  1. How to use MATLAB to fit the ex-Gaussian and other probability functions to a distribution of response times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Cousineau

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses how to characterize response time (RT frequency distributions in terms of probability functions and how to implement the necessary analysis tools using MATLAB. The first part of the paper discusses the general principles of maximum likelihood estimation. A detailed implementation that allows fitting the popular ex-Gaussian function is then presented followed by the results of a Monte Carlo study that shows the validity of the proposed approach. Although the main focus is the ex-Gaussian function, the general procedure described here can be used to estimate best fitting parameters of various probability functions. The proposed computational tools, written in MATLAB source code, are available through the Internet.

  2. Probability distribution of von Mises stress in the presence of pre-load.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segalman, Daniel Joseph; Field, Richard V.,; Reese, Garth M.

    2013-04-01

    Random vibration under preload is important in multiple endeavors, including those involving launch and re-entry. There are some methods in the literature to begin to address this problem, but there is nothing that accommodates the existence of preloads and the necessity of making probabilistic statements about the stress levels likely to be encountered. An approach to achieve to this goal is presented along with several simple illustrations.

  3. Specification and Estimation of Network Formation and Network Interaction Models with the Exponential Probability Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Lung fei

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we model network formation and network interactions under a unified framework. The key feature of our model is to allow individuals to respond to incentives stemming from interaction benefits on certain activities when they choose friends (network links), while capturing homophily in terms of unobserved characteristic variables in network formation and activities. There are two advantages of this modeling approach: first, one can evaluate whether incentives from certain interac...

  4. Project management under uncertainty beyond beta: The generalized bicubic distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José García Pérez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The beta distribution has traditionally been employed in the PERT methodology and generally used for modeling bounded continuous random variables based on expert’s judgment. The impossibility of estimating four parameters from the three values provided by the expert when the beta distribution is assumed to be the underlying distribution has been widely debated. This paper presents the generalized bicubic distribution as a good alternative to the beta distribution since, when the variance depends on the mode, the generalized bicubic distribution approximates the kurtosis of the Gaussian distribution better than the beta distribution. In addition, this distribution presents good properties in the PERT methodology in relation to moderation and conservatism criteria. Two empirical applications are presented to demonstrate the adequateness of this new distribution.

  5. Exact valence bond entanglement entropy and probability distribution in the XXX spin chain and the potts model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, J L; Saleur, H

    2008-02-29

    We determine exactly the probability distribution of the number N_(c) of valence bonds connecting a subsystem of length L>1 to the rest of the system in the ground state of the XXX antiferromagnetic spin chain. This provides, in particular, the asymptotic behavior of the valence-bond entanglement entropy S_(VB)=N_(c)ln2=4ln2/pi(2)lnL disproving a recent conjecture that this should be related with the von Neumann entropy, and thus equal to 1/3lnL. Our results generalize to the Q-state Potts model.

  6. Fluid-driven fracture propagation in heterogeneous media: Probability distributions of fracture trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillán, David; Mosquera, Juan-Carlos; Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis

    2017-11-01

    Hydraulic fracture trajectories in rocks and other materials are highly affected by spatial heterogeneity in their mechanical properties. Understanding the complexity and structure of fluid-driven fractures and their deviation from the predictions of homogenized theories is a practical problem in engineering and geoscience. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study to characterize the influence of heterogeneous mechanical properties on the trajectories of hydraulic fractures propagating in elastic media. We generate a large number of random fields of mechanical properties and simulate pressure-driven fracture propagation using a phase-field model. We model the mechanical response of the material as that of an elastic isotropic material with heterogeneous Young modulus and Griffith energy release rate, assuming that fractures propagate in the toughness-dominated regime. Our study shows that the variance and the spatial covariance of the mechanical properties are controlling factors in the tortuousness of the fracture paths. We characterize the deviation of fracture paths from the homogenous case statistically, and conclude that the maximum deviation grows linearly with the distance from the injection point. Additionally, fracture path deviations seem to be normally distributed, suggesting that fracture propagation in the toughness-dominated regime may be described as a random walk.

  7. Joint Probability Distribution Function for the Electric Microfield and its Ion-Octupole Inhomogeneity Tensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halenka, J.; Olchawa, W.

    2005-01-01

    From experiments, see e.g. [W. Wiese, D. Kelleher, and D. Paquette, Phys. Rev. A 6, 1132 (1972); V. Helbig and K. Nich, J. Phys. B 14, 3573 (1981).; J. Halenka, Z. Phys. D 16, 1 (1990); . Djurovic, D. Nikolic, I. Savic, S. Sorge, and A.V. Demura, Phys. Rev. E 71, 036407 (2005)], results that the hydrogen lines formed in plasma with N e φ 10 16 cm -3 are asymmetrical. The inhomogeneity of ionic micro field and the higher order corrections (quadratic and next ones) in perturbation theory are the reason for such asymmetry. So far, the ion-emitter quadrupole interaction and the quadratic Stark effect have been included in calculations. The recent work shows that a significant discrepancy between calculations and measurements occurs in the wings of H-beta line in plasmas with cm -3 . It should be stressed here that e.g. for the energy operator the correction raised by the quadratic Stark effect is proportional to (where is the emitter-perturber distance) similarly as the correction caused by the emitter-perturber octupole interaction and the quadratic correction from emitter-perturber quadrupole interaction. Thus, it is obvious that a model of the profile calculation is consistent one if all the aforementioned corrections are simultaneously included. Such calculations are planned in the future paper. A statistics of the octupole inhomogeneity tensor in a plasma is necessarily needed in the first step of such calculations. For the first time the distribution functions of the octupole inhomogeneity have been calculated in this paper using the Mayer-Mayer cluster expansion method similarly as for the quadrupole function in the paper [J. Halenka, Z. Phys. D 16, 1 (1990)]. The quantity is the reduced scale of the micro field strength, where is the Holtsmark normal field and is the mean distance defined by the relationship, that is approximately equal to the mean ion-ion distance; whereas is the screening parameter, where is the electronic Debye radius. (author)

  8. A method for acquiring random range uncertainty probability distributions in proton therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, S. M.; Holloway, M. D.; Thomas, S. J.

    2018-01-01

    In treatment planning we depend upon accurate knowledge of geometric and range uncertainties. If the uncertainty model is inaccurate then the plan will produce under-dosing of the target and/or overdosing of OAR. We aim to provide a method for which centre and site-specific population range uncertainty due to inter-fraction motion can be quantified to improve the uncertainty model in proton treatment planning. Daily volumetric MVCT data from previously treated radiotherapy patients has been used to investigate inter-fraction changes to water equivalent path-length (WEPL). Daily image-guidance scans were carried out for each patient and corrected for changes in CTV position (using rigid transformations). An effective depth algorithm was used to determine residual range changes, after corrections had been applied, throughout the treatment by comparing WEPL within the CTV at each fraction for several beam angles. As a proof of principle this method was used to quantify uncertainties for inter-fraction range changes for a sample of head and neck patients of Σ=3.39 mm, σ = 4.72 mm and overall mean = -1.82 mm. For prostate Σ=5.64 mm, σ = 5.91 mm and overall mean = 0.98 mm. The choice of beam angle for head and neck did not affect the inter-fraction range error significantly; however this was not the same for prostate. Greater range changes were seen using a lateral beam compared to an anterior beam for prostate due to relative motion of the prostate and femoral heads. A method has been developed to quantify population range changes due to inter-fraction motion that can be adapted for the clinic. The results of this work highlight the importance of robust planning and analysis in proton therapy. Such information could be used in robust optimisation algorithms or treatment plan robustness analysis. Such knowledge will aid in establishing beam start conditions at planning and for establishing adaptive planning protocols.

  9. Probable Observation of Quantized Vortex Lines Through Solid He Under DC Rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Masahiko; Kitamura, Akira; Shimizu, Nobutaka; Yasuta, Yoshinori; Kubota, Minoru

    2011-03-01

    We report how one can detect quantized vortices in superfluids contained in cylindrical vessels in well-designed torsional oscillator (TO) experiments under DC rotation. We show the case of an artificial 3D superfluid (Fukuda et al. in Phys. Rev. B 71:212502, 2005) which is made of Kosterlits-Thouless 2D He film condensed on a porous glass substrate with a 3D connected surface of well-controlled pore size. We understand the TO experimental results with an extra energy dissipation peak under DC rotation by considering the circular quantized superflow around each of the vortex lines and interaction with thermally excited 2D vortices as discussed in Fukuda et al. (Phys. Rev. B 71:212502, 2005) and in Nemirovskii and Sonin (Phys. Rev. B 76: 224507, 2007). We discuss here the case of hcp solid 4He (see for ex. Balibar and Caupin in J. Phys., Condens. Matter 20:173201-1-19, 2008) and show the evidence of observation of the vortex lines penetration below a supersolid transition temperature (Kubota et al. in J. Low Temp. Phys. 158:572, 2010), T c , where macroscopic phase coherence is realized. It is found at exactly the same temperature T c , below which the hysteresis occurrs (Shimizu et ail. in arXiv:0903.1326, 2009). For hcp solid 4He we have reported the vortex fluid (VF) state onset temperature (Penzev et al. in Phys. Rev. Lett. 101:065301, 2008) T o =˜500 mK, by detailed drive velocity, V ac dependence study using TO technique. The TO response of the hcp 4He is characterized by the energy dissipation peaked at T p near 100 mK similar to the behavior in a KT transition. The real supersolid (SS) state occurs at T c below T p and much lower than T o . Our observation of the evidence of vortex lines penetration just below T c together with the VF state properties gives support for the idea that hcp 4He shares some features with the "new type of superconductors", where the vortex state, involving the VF as well as various vortex solid states, has been commonly discussed

  10. Limiting behavior of delayed sums under a non-identically distribution setup

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Pingyan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available We present an accurate description the limiting behavior of delayed sums under a non-identically distribution setup, and deduce Chover-type laws of the iterated logarithm for them. These complement and extend the results of Vasudeva and Divanji (Theory of Probability and its Applications, 37 (1992, 534-542.Apresentamos uma descrição precisa do comportamento limite de somas retardadas, e deduzimos leis do tipo Chover de logaritmo iterado para as mesmas. Isso completa e estende os resultados de Vasudeva e Divanji (Theory of Probability and its Aplications, 37 (1992, 534-542.

  11. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    S Varadhan, S R

    2001-01-01

    This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando

  12. Glandular trichomes in Connarus suberosus (Connaraceae: distribution, structural organization and probable functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Donizete Denardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Connarus suberosus is a typical species of the Brazilian Cerrado biome, and its inflorescences and young vegetative branches are densely covered by dendritic trichomes. The objective of this study was to report the occurrence of a previously undescribed glandular trichome of this species. The localization, origin and structure of these trichomes were investigated under light, transmission and scanning electron microscopy. Collections were made throughout the year, from five adult specimens of Connarus suberosus near Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, including vegetative and reproductive apices, leaves and fruits in different developmental stages, as well as floral buds and flowers at anthesis. Glandular trichomes (GTs occurred on vegetative and reproductive organs during their juvenile stages. The GTs consisted of a uniseriate, multicellular peduncle, whose cells contain phenolic compounds, as well as a multicellular glandular portion that accumulates lipids. The glandular cell has thin wall, dense cytoplasm (with many mitochondria, plastids and dictyosomes, and a large nucleus with a visible nucleolus. The starch present in the plastids was hydrolyzed during the synthesis phase, reducing the density of the plastid stroma. Some plastids were fused to vacuoles, and some evidence suggested the conversion of plastids into vacuoles. During the final activity stages of the GTs, a darkening of the protoplasm was observed in some of the glandular cells, as a programmed cell death; afterwards, became caducous. The GTs in C. suberosus had a temporal restriction, being limited to the juvenile phase of the organs. Their presence on the exposed surfaces of developing organs and the chemical nature of the reserve products, suggest that these structures are food bodies. Field observations and detailed studies of plant-environment interactions, as well as chemical analysis of the reserve compounds, are still necessary to confirm the role of these GTs as feeding

  13. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  14. Distribution Line Parameter Estimation Under Consideration of Measurement Tolerances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prostejovsky, Alexander; Gehrke, Oliver; Kosek, Anna Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    State estimation and control approaches in electric distribution grids rely on precise electric models that may be inaccurate. This work presents a novel method of estimating distribution line parameters using only root mean square voltage and power measurements under consideration of measurement...

  15. Limiting behavior of delayed sums under a non-identically distribution setup

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Pingyan

    2008-01-01

    We present an accurate description the limiting behavior of delayed sums under a non-identically distribution setup, and deduce Chover-type laws of the iterated logarithm for them. These complement and extend the results of Vasudeva and Divanji (Theory of Probability and its Applications, 37 (1992), 534-542).Apresentamos uma descrição precisa do comportamento limite de somas retardadas, e deduzimos leis do tipo Chover de logaritmo iterado para as mesmas. Isso completa e estende os resultados ...

  16. A Case Series of the Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution of Laryngeal Disease in a Tertiary Care Voice Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Jaime; Garrett, C Gaelyn; Ossoff, Robert; Vinson, Kim; Francis, David O; Gelbard, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    To examine the distribution of clinic and operative pathology in a tertiary care laryngology practice. Probability density and cumulative distribution analyses (Pareto analysis) was used to rank order laryngeal conditions seen in an outpatient tertiary care laryngology practice and those requiring surgical intervention during a 3-year period. Among 3783 new clinic consultations and 1380 operative procedures, voice disorders were the most common primary diagnostic category seen in clinic (n = 3223), followed by airway (n = 374) and swallowing (n = 186) disorders. Within the voice strata, the most common primary ICD-9 code used was dysphonia (41%), followed by unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) (9%) and cough (7%). Among new voice patients, 45% were found to have a structural abnormality. The most common surgical indications were laryngotracheal stenosis (37%), followed by recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (18%) and UVFP (17%). Nearly 55% of patients presenting to a tertiary referral laryngology practice did not have an identifiable structural abnormality in the larynx on direct or indirect examination. The distribution of ICD-9 codes requiring surgical intervention was disparate from that seen in clinic. Application of the Pareto principle may improve resource allocation in laryngology, but these initial results require confirmation across multiple institutions.

  17. Under the hood of IRIS's Distributed REU Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubenthal, M.; Taber, J.

    2014-12-01

    Since 1998 the IRIS Undergraduate Internship Program has provided research experiences for up to 15 students each summer. Through this 9 to 11 week internship program, students take part in an intensive week-long preparatory course, and work with leaders in seismological research, in both lab-base and field-based settings, to produce research products worthy of presentation and recognition at large professional conferences. The IRIS internship program employs a distributed REU model that has been demonstrated to bond students into a cohort, and maintain group cohesion despite students conducting their research at geographically distributed sites. Over the past 16 years the program has encountered numerous anticipated and unanticipated challenges. The primary challenges have involved exploring how to modify the REU-system to produce outcomes that are better aligned with our programmatic goals. For example, some questions we have attempted to address include: How can the success of an REU site be measured? How do you find, interest, and recruit under-represented minorities into a geophysics program? Can the program increase the probability of interns receiving some minimal level of mentoring across the program? While it is likely that no single answer to these questions exists, we have developed and piloted a number of strategies. These approaches have been developed through a process of identifying relevant research results from other REUs and combing this information with data from our own programmatic evaluations. This data informs the development of specific changes within our program which are then measured as a feedback. We will present our current strategies to address each questions along with measures of their effectiveness. In addition to broad scale systematic issues, we have also placed significant effort into responding to smaller, process challenges that all REU sites face. These range from simple logistical issues (e.g. liability), to educational

  18. Forecasting the Stock Market with Linguistic Rules Generated from the Minimize Entropy Principle and the Cumulative Probability Distribution Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Ho Su

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.

  19. Autoregressive processes with exponentially decaying probability distribution functions: applications to daily variations of a stock market index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Markus; Roman, H Eduardo

    2002-04-01

    We consider autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes in which the variance sigma(2)(y) depends linearly on the absolute value of the random variable y as sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y. While for the standard model, where sigma(2)(y) = a + b y(2), the corresponding probability distribution function (PDF) P(y) decays as a power law for absolute value of y-->infinity, in the linear case it decays exponentially as P(y) approximately exp(-alpha absolute value of y), with alpha = 2/b. We extend these results to the more general case sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y(q), with 0 process is taken into account, the resulting PDF becomes a stretched exponential even for q = 1, with a stretched exponent beta = 2/3, in a much better agreement with the empirical data.

  20. Hardpan and maize root distribution under conservation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hardpan and maize root distribution under conservation and conventional tillage in agro-ecological zone IIa, Zambia. ... There is no scientific basis for the recommendation given to farmers by agricultural extension workers to “break the hardpan” in fields under manual or animal tillage in the study areas. Key Words: Soil ...

  1. Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)

    2012-07-06

    Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life

  2. Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1990-12-01

    A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

  3. A bioinformatic survey of distribution, conservation, and probable functions of LuxR solo regulators in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramoni, Sujatha; Florez Salcedo, Diana Vanessa; Suarez-Moreno, Zulma R

    2015-01-01

    LuxR solo transcriptional regulators contain both an autoinducer binding domain (ABD; N-terminal) and a DNA binding Helix-Turn-Helix domain (HTH; C-terminal), but are not associated with a cognate N-acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) synthase coding gene in the same genome. Although a few LuxR solos have been characterized, their distributions as well as their role in bacterial signal perception and other processes are poorly understood. In this study we have carried out a systematic survey of distribution of all ABD containing LuxR transcriptional regulators (QS domain LuxRs) available in the InterPro database (IPR005143), and identified those lacking a cognate AHL synthase. These LuxR solos were then analyzed regarding their taxonomical distribution, predicted functions of neighboring genes and the presence of complete AHL-QS systems in the genomes that carry them. Our analyses reveal the presence of one or multiple predicted LuxR solos in many proteobacterial genomes carrying QS domain LuxRs, some of them harboring genes for one or more AHL-QS circuits. The presence of LuxR solos in bacteria occupying diverse environments suggests potential ecological functions for these proteins beyond AHL and interkingdom signaling. Based on gene context and the conservation levels of invariant amino acids of ABD, we have classified LuxR solos into functionally meaningful groups or putative orthologs. Surprisingly, putative LuxR solos were also found in a few non-proteobacterial genomes which are not known to carry AHL-QS systems. Multiple predicted LuxR solos in the same genome appeared to have different levels of conservation of invariant amino acid residues of ABD questioning their binding to AHLs. In summary, this study provides a detailed overview of distribution of LuxR solos and their probable roles in bacteria with genome sequence information.

  4. Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Systems under Uncertain Forecasts: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall' Anese, Emiliano; Baker, Kyri; Summers, Tyler

    2016-12-01

    The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative bounds that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.

  5. Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 2: numerical application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent

    2018-03-01

    The characteristic form of the Saint-Venant equations is solved in a stochastic setting by using a newly proposed Fokker-Planck Equation (FPE) methodology. This methodology computes the ensemble behavior and variability of the unsteady flow in open channels by directly solving for the flow variables' time-space evolutionary probability distribution. The new methodology is tested on a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow problem, with an uncertainty arising from the channel's roughness coefficient. The computed statistical descriptions of the flow variables are compared to the results obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in order to evaluate the performance of the FPE methodology. The comparisons show that the proposed methodology can adequately predict the results of the considered stochastic flow problem, including the ensemble averages, variances, and probability density functions in time and space. Unlike the large number of simulations performed by the MC approach, only one simulation is required by the FPE methodology. Moreover, the total computational time of the FPE methodology is smaller than that of the MC approach, which could prove to be a particularly crucial advantage in systems with a large number of uncertain parameters. As such, the results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed FPE methodology is a powerful and time-efficient approach for predicting the ensemble average and variance behavior, in both space and time, for an open-channel flow process under an uncertain roughness coefficient.

  6. Analyses of moments in pseudorapidity intervals at √s = 546 GeV by means of two probability distributions in pure-birth process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biyajima, M.; Shirane, K.; Suzuki, N.

    1988-01-01

    Moments in pseudorapidity intervals at the CERN Sp-barpS collider (√s = 546 GeV) are analyzed by means of two probability distributions in the pure-birth stochastic process. Our results show that a probability distribution obtained from the Poisson distribution as an initial condition is more useful than that obtained from the Kronecker δ function. Analyses of moments by Koba-Nielsen-Olesen scaling functions derived from solutions of the pure-birth stochastic process are also made. Moreover, analyses of preliminary data at √s = 200 and 900 GeV are added

  7. Large deflection analysis of skew plates under uniformly distributed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The present paper deals with large deflection static behaviour of thin isotropic skew plates under uniformly distributed load for various mixed flexural boundary conditions. A variational method based on the principle of minimization of total potential energy has been used through assumed displacement fields. The results are ...

  8. Water and nitrogen distribution in uncropped ridgetilled soil under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A ridge-tillage configuration, with placement of nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) or its source in the elevated portion of the ridge, can potentially isolate fertilizer from downward water flow and minimize nitrate leaching. In the experiment, the simultaneous distribution of water, nitrate, and ammonium under three ridge widths was ...

  9. Coolant rate distribution in horizontal steam generator under natural circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blagovechtchenski, A.; Leontieva, V.; Mitrioukhin, A. [St. Petersburg State Technical Univ. (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    In the presentation the major factors determining the conditions of NCC (Natural Coolant Circulation) in the primary circuit and in particular conditions of coolant rate distribution on the horizontal tubes of PGV-1000 in NPP with VVER-1000 under NCC are considered. 5 refs.

  10. Dynamic phase transitions of the Blume–Emery–Griffiths model under an oscillating external magnetic field by the path probability method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ertaş, Mehmet, E-mail: mehmetertas@erciyes.edu.tr; Keskin, Mustafa

    2015-03-01

    By using the path probability method (PPM) with point distribution, we study the dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) in the Blume–Emery–Griffiths (BEG) model under an oscillating external magnetic field. The phases in the model are obtained by solving the dynamic equations for the average order parameters and a disordered phase, ordered phase and four mixed phases are found. We also investigate the thermal behavior of the dynamic order parameters to analyze the nature dynamic transitions as well as to obtain the DPT temperatures. The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in three different planes in which exhibit the dynamic tricritical point, double critical end point, critical end point, quadrupole point, triple point as well as the reentrant behavior, strongly depending on the values of the system parameters. We compare and discuss the dynamic phase diagrams with dynamic phase diagrams that were obtained within the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory. - Highlights: • Dynamic magnetic behavior of the Blume–Emery–Griffiths system is investigated by using the path probability method. • The time variations of average magnetizations are studied to find the phases. • The temperature dependence of the dynamic magnetizations is investigated to obtain the dynamic phase transition points. • We compare and discuss the dynamic phase diagrams with dynamic phase diagrams that were obtained within the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory.

  11. Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' mining alters ground-water regime,'' water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features.

  12. Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1991-11-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

  13. Estimation of current density distribution under electrodes for external defibrillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papazov Sava P

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transthoracic defibrillation is the most common life-saving technique for the restoration of the heart rhythm of cardiac arrest victims. The procedure requires adequate application of large electrodes on the patient chest, to ensure low-resistance electrical contact. The current density distribution under the electrodes is non-uniform, leading to muscle contraction and pain, or risks of burning. The recent introduction of automatic external defibrillators and even wearable defibrillators, presents new demanding requirements for the structure of electrodes. Method and Results Using the pseudo-elliptic differential equation of Laplace type with appropriate boundary conditions and applying finite element method modeling, electrodes of various shapes and structure were studied. The non-uniformity of the current density distribution was shown to be moderately improved by adding a low resistivity layer between the metal and tissue and by a ring around the electrode perimeter. The inclusion of openings in long-term wearable electrodes additionally disturbs the current density profile. However, a number of small-size perforations may result in acceptable current density distribution. Conclusion The current density distribution non-uniformity of circular electrodes is about 30% less than that of square-shaped electrodes. The use of an interface layer of intermediate resistivity, comparable to that of the underlying tissues, and a high-resistivity perimeter ring, can further improve the distribution. The inclusion of skin aeration openings disturbs the current paths, but an appropriate selection of number and size provides a reasonable compromise.

  14. Prediction of Carbohydrate Binding Sites on Protein Surfaces with 3-Dimensional Probability Density Distributions of Interacting Atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Keng-Chang; Jian, Jhih-Wei; Yang, Ei-Wen; Hsu, Po-Chiang; Peng, Hung-Pin; Chen, Ching-Tai; Chen, Jun-Bo; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Hsu, Wen-Lian; Yang, An-Suei

    2012-01-01

    Non-covalent protein-carbohydrate interactions mediate molecular targeting in many biological processes. Prediction of non-covalent carbohydrate binding sites on protein surfaces not only provides insights into the functions of the query proteins; information on key carbohydrate-binding residues could suggest site-directed mutagenesis experiments, design therapeutics targeting carbohydrate-binding proteins, and provide guidance in engineering protein-carbohydrate interactions. In this work, we show that non-covalent carbohydrate binding sites on protein surfaces can be predicted with relatively high accuracy when the query protein structures are known. The prediction capabilities were based on a novel encoding scheme of the three-dimensional probability density maps describing the distributions of 36 non-covalent interacting atom types around protein surfaces. One machine learning model was trained for each of the 30 protein atom types. The machine learning algorithms predicted tentative carbohydrate binding sites on query proteins by recognizing the characteristic interacting atom distribution patterns specific for carbohydrate binding sites from known protein structures. The prediction results for all protein atom types were integrated into surface patches as tentative carbohydrate binding sites based on normalized prediction confidence level. The prediction capabilities of the predictors were benchmarked by a 10-fold cross validation on 497 non-redundant proteins with known carbohydrate binding sites. The predictors were further tested on an independent test set with 108 proteins. The residue-based Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for the independent test was 0.45, with prediction precision and sensitivity (or recall) of 0.45 and 0.49 respectively. In addition, 111 unbound carbohydrate-binding protein structures for which the structures were determined in the absence of the carbohydrate ligands were predicted with the trained predictors. The overall

  15. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  16. Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, K; Yamada, A; Kakitani, I; Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K

    2016-01-01

    Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Probability distribution functions of δ15N and δ18O in groundwater nitrate to probabilistically solve complex mixing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrystal, A.; Heikoop, J. M.; Davis, P.; Syme, J.; Hagerty, S.; Perkins, G.; Larson, T. E.; Longmire, P.; Fessenden, J. E.

    2010-12-01

    Elevated nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in drinking water pose a health risk to the public. The dual stable isotopic signatures of δ15N and δ18O in NO3- in surface- and groundwater are often used to identify and distinguish among sources of NO3- (e.g., sewage, fertilizer, atmospheric deposition). In oxic groundwaters where no denitrification is occurring, direct calculations of mixing fractions using a mass balance approach can be performed if three or fewer sources of NO3- are present, and if the stable isotope ratios of the source terms are defined. There are several limitations to this approach. First, direct calculations of mixing fractions are not possible when four or more NO3- sources may be present. Simple mixing calculations also rely upon treating source isotopic compositions as a single value; however these sources themselves exhibit ranges in stable isotope ratios. More information can be gained by using a probabilistic approach to account for the range and distribution of stable isotope ratios in each source. Fitting probability density functions (PDFs) to the isotopic compositions for each source term reveals that some values within a given isotopic range are more likely to occur than others. We compiled a data set of dual isotopes in NO3- sources by combining our measurements with data collected through extensive literature review. We fit each source term with a PDF, and show a new method to probabilistically solve multiple component mixing scenarios with source isotopic composition uncertainty. This method is based on a modified use of a tri-linear diagram. First, source term PDFs are sampled numerous times using a variation of stratified random sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling. For each set of sampled source isotopic compositions, a reference point is generated close to the measured groundwater sample isotopic composition. This point is used as a vertex to form all possible triangles between all pairs of sampled source isotopic compositions

  18. Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

    2009-01-01

    PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

  19. Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Victoria; Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A; Ogden, Nicholas H

    2017-06-05

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus ; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus . R 0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada

  20. Secure Distributed Detection under Energy Constraint in IoT-Oriented Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guomei; Sun, Hao

    2016-12-16

    We study the secure distributed detection problems under energy constraint for IoT-oriented sensor networks. The conventional channel-aware encryption (CAE) is an efficient physical-layer secure distributed detection scheme in light of its energy efficiency, good scalability and robustness over diverse eavesdropping scenarios. However, in the CAE scheme, it remains an open problem of how to optimize the key thresholds for the estimated channel gain, which are used to determine the sensor's reporting action. Moreover, the CAE scheme does not jointly consider the accuracy of local detection results in determining whether to stay dormant for a sensor. To solve these problems, we first analyze the error probability and derive the optimal thresholds in the CAE scheme under a specified energy constraint. These results build a convenient mathematic framework for our further innovative design. Under this framework, we propose a hybrid secure distributed detection scheme. Our proposal can satisfy the energy constraint by keeping some sensors inactive according to the local detection confidence level, which is characterized by likelihood ratio. In the meanwhile, the security is guaranteed through randomly flipping the local decisions forwarded to the fusion center based on the channel amplitude. We further optimize the key parameters of our hybrid scheme, including two local decision thresholds and one channel comparison threshold. Performance evaluation results demonstrate that our hybrid scheme outperforms the CAE under stringent energy constraints, especially in the high signal-to-noise ratio scenario, while the security is still assured.

  1. Classroom Research: Assessment of Student Understanding of Sampling Distributions of Means and the Central Limit Theorem in Post-Calculus Probability and Statistics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunsford, M. Leigh; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Goodson-Espy, Tracy

    2006-01-01

    We applied a classroom research model to investigate student understanding of sampling distributions of sample means and the Central Limit Theorem in post-calculus introductory probability and statistics courses. Using a quantitative assessment tool developed by previous researchers and a qualitative assessment tool developed by the authors, we…

  2. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  3. Antiprotons production of propagating cosmic rays under distributed reacceleration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, M.; Heinbach, U.; Koch, C.

    1987-01-01

    The available measurements on the cosmic ray anti p/p-ratio show an excess of antiprotons above predictions derived in the framework of the standard picture of cosmic ray origin and propagation. We calculated the anti p production from collisions of cosmic rays with the interstellar gas under the condition of distributed reacceleration. It could be shown that the calculated anti p/p-ratio is enhanced compared to that derived from the 'leaky box' model but it remains difficult to bring it into agreement with the data by reasonable astrophysical assumptions. (orig.)

  4. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  5. Distributed and organized decision making under resource boundedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawaragi, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    The coming bottleneck to be overcome in the era of the distributed and open-architectured environment will be the establishment of the rational design and coordination of the total system where multiple decision makers, problem solvers and automated machinery components coexist interacting with each other. In such an environment, they are not achieving some absolute standard of performance with unlimited amounts of resources nor with simple algorithms, but is doing as well as possible given what resources one has. In this article, we focus on the potentials of decision theory as a tool for tackling with the limited rationality under resource boundedness. First, the bottlenecks for establishing the organized and distributed decision making are summarized, and the importance of the formalization of decision activities of intelligent agents is stressed to establish an efficient and effective cooperation by distributed and organized decision making and/or problem solving. Some of the practical systems developed based on such a principle are reviewed briefly with respect to the real-time man-machine collaboration and the cooperative computational framework for the intelligent mobile robots. (author)

  6. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  7. Information selection and signal probability in multisource monitoring under the influence of centrally active drugs : Phentermine versus pentobarbital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volkerts, E.R; van Laar, M.W; Verbaten, M.N; Mulder, G.; Maes, R.A A

    1996-01-01

    The present study is concerned with the relationship between drug-induced arousal shifts and sampling [(monitoring)] behaviour in a three-source task with an a priori signal occurrence probability of 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The multisource monitoring task and procedure was adopted from Hockey (1973) who

  8. Probability distribution function values in mobile phones;Valores de funciones de distribución de probabilidad en el teléfono móvil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Vicente Chamorro Marcillllo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Engineering, within its academic and application forms, as well as any formal research work requires the use of statistics and every inferential statistical analysis requires the use of values of probability distribution functions that are generally available in tables. Generally, management of those tables have physical problems (wasteful transport and wasteful consultation and operational (incomplete lists and limited accuracy. The study, “Probability distribution function values in mobile phones”, permitted determining – through a needs survey applied to students involved in statistics studies at Universidad de Nariño – that the best known and most used values correspond to Chi-Square, Binomial, Student’s t, and Standard Normal distributions. Similarly, it showed user’s interest in having the values in question within an alternative means to correct, at least in part, the problems presented by “the famous tables”. To try to contribute to the solution, we built software that allows immediately and dynamically obtaining the values of the probability distribution functions most commonly used by mobile phones.

  9. Using probability of drug use as independent variable in a register-based pharmacoepidemiological cause-effect study-An application of the reverse waiting time distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallas, Jesper; Pottegård, Anton; Støvring, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, each day of follow-up is usually categorized either as exposed or unexposed. However, there is an underlying continuous probability of exposure, and by insisting on a dichotomy, researchers unwillingly force a nondifferential misclass...

  10. Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Kevin Martin

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

  11. Node vulnerability of water distribution networks under cascading failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuang, Qing; Zhang, Mingyuan; Yuan, Yongbo

    2014-01-01

    Water distribution networks (WDNs) are important in modern lifeline system. Its stability and reliability are critical for guaranteeing high living quality and continuous operation of urban functions. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the nodal vulnerability of WDNs under cascading failures. Vulnerability is defined to analyze the effects of the consequent failures. A cascading failure is a step-by-step process which is quantitatively investigated by numerical simulation with intentional attack. Monitored pressures in different nodes and flows in different pipes have been used to estimate the network topological structure and the consequences of nodal failure. Based on the connectivity loss of topological structure, the nodal vulnerability has been evaluated. A load variation function is established to record the nodal failure reason and describe the relative differences between the load and the capacity. The proposed method is validated by an illustrative example. The results revealed that the network vulnerability should be evaluated with the consideration of hydraulic analysis and network topology. In the case study, 70.59% of the node failures trigger the cascading failures with different failure processes. It is shown that the cascading failures result in severe consequences in WDNs. - Highlights: • The aim of this paper is to evaluate the nodal vulnerability of water distribution networks under cascading failures. • Monitored pressures and flows have been used to estimate the network topological structure and the consequences of nodal failure. • Based on the connectivity loss of topological structure, the nodal vulnerability has been evaluated. • A load variation function is established to record the failure reason and describe the relative differences between load and capacity. • The results show that 70.59% of the node failures trigger the cascading failures with different failure processes

  12. Discharge current distribution in stratified soil under impulse discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eniola Fajingbesi, Fawwaz; Shahida Midi, Nur; Elsheikh, Elsheikh M. A.; Hajar Yusoff, Siti

    2017-06-01

    The mobility of charge particles traversing a material defines its electrical properties. Soil (earth) have long been the universal grounding before and after the inception of active ground systems for electrical appliance purpose due to it semi-conductive properties. The soil can thus be modelled as a single material exhibiting semi-complex inductive-reactive impedance. Under impulse discharge such as lightning strikes to soil this property of soil could result in electric potential level fluctuation ranging from ground potential rise/fall to electromagnetic pulse coupling that could ultimately fail connected electrical appliance. In this work we have experimentally model the soil and lightning discharge using point to plane electrode setup to observe the current distribution characteristics at different soil conductivity [mS/m] range. The result presented from this research indicate above 5% shift in conductivity before and after discharge which is significant for consideration when dealing with grounding designs. The current distribution in soil have also be successfully observed and analysed from experimental result using mean current magnitude in relation to electrode distance and location, current density variation with depth all showing strong correlation with theoretical assumptions of a semi-complex impedance material.

  13. Comparative analysis of methods for modelling the short-term probability distribution of extreme wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2016-01-01

    extrapolation techniques: the Weibull, Gumbel and Pareto distributions and a double-exponential asymptotic extreme value function based on the ACER method. For the successful implementation of a fully automated extrapolation process, we have developed a procedure for automatic identification of tail threshold...... levels, based on the assumption that the response tail is asymptotically Gumbel distributed. Example analyses were carried out, aimed at comparing the different methods, analysing the statistical uncertainties and identifying the factors, which are critical to the accuracy and reliability...

  14. Protein-Protein Interaction Site Predictions with Three-Dimensional Probability Distributions of Interacting Atoms on Protein Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ching-Tai; Peng, Hung-Pin; Jian, Jhih-Wei; Tsai, Keng-Chang; Chang, Jeng-Yih; Yang, Ei-Wen; Chen, Jun-Bo; Ho, Shinn-Ying; Hsu, Wen-Lian; Yang, An-Suei

    2012-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions are key to many biological processes. Computational methodologies devised to predict protein-protein interaction (PPI) sites on protein surfaces are important tools in providing insights into the biological functions of proteins and in developing therapeutics targeting the protein-protein interaction sites. One of the general features of PPI sites is that the core regions from the two interacting protein surfaces are complementary to each other, similar to the interior of proteins in packing density and in the physicochemical nature of the amino acid composition. In this work, we simulated the physicochemical complementarities by constructing three-dimensional probability density maps of non-covalent interacting atoms on the protein surfaces. The interacting probabilities were derived from the interior of known structures. Machine learning algorithms were applied to learn the characteristic patterns of the probability density maps specific to the PPI sites. The trained predictors for PPI sites were cross-validated with the training cases (consisting of 432 proteins) and were tested on an independent dataset (consisting of 142 proteins). The residue-based Matthews correlation coefficient for the independent test set was 0.423; the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity were 0.753, 0.519, 0.677, and 0.779 respectively. The benchmark results indicate that the optimized machine learning models are among the best predictors in identifying PPI sites on protein surfaces. In particular, the PPI site prediction accuracy increases with increasing size of the PPI site and with increasing hydrophobicity in amino acid composition of the PPI interface; the core interface regions are more likely to be recognized with high prediction confidence. The results indicate that the physicochemical complementarity patterns on protein surfaces are important determinants in PPIs, and a substantial portion of the PPI sites can be predicted correctly with

  15. Statistics and Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laktineh Imad

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  16. Application of an additive-type mixed probability distribution to the analysis of radiation from a mixture of radioactive sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolićanin-Đekić Diana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the possibility of distinguishing between the effects of radiation coming from two or more radioactive isotopes, by using methods of statistical mathematics. The procedure uses a mixed distribution of an additive type. Mathematical treatment is demonstrated herein on an example of analysis of composite radiation from two radioactive sources.

  17. Investigating anthelmintic efficacy against gastrointestinal nematodes in cattle by considering appropriate probability distributions for faecal egg count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.W. Love

    2017-04-01

    Where FEC data were obtained with less sensitive counting techniques (i.e. McMaster 30 or 15 epg, zero-inflated distributions and their associated central tendency were the most appropriate and would be recommended to use, i.e. the arithmetic group mean divided by the proportion of non-zero counts present; otherwise apparent anthelmintic efficacy could be misrepresented.

  18. Cooperative AF Relaying in Spectrum-Sharing Systems: Outage Probability Analysis under Co-Channel Interferences and Relay Selection

    KAUST Repository

    Xia, Minghua

    2012-11-01

    For cooperative amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying in spectrum-sharing wireless systems, secondary users share spectrum resources originally licensed to primary users to communicate with each other and, thus, the transmit power of secondary transmitters is strictly limited by the tolerable interference powers at primary receivers. Furthermore, the received signals at a relay and at a secondary receiver are inevitably interfered by the signals from primary transmitters. These co-channel interferences (CCIs) from concurrent primary transmission can significantly degrade the performance of secondary transmission. This paper studies the effect of CCIs on outage probability of the secondary link in a spectrum-sharing environment. In particular, in order to compensate the performance loss due to CCIs, the transmit powers of a secondary transmitter and its relaying node are respectively optimized with respect to both the tolerable interference powers at the primary receivers and the CCIs from the primary transmitters. Moreover, when multiple relays are available, the technique of opportunistic relay selection is exploited to further improve system performance with low implementation complexity. By analyzing lower and upper bounds on the outage probability of the secondary system, this study reveals that it is the tolerable interference powers at primary receivers that dominate the system performance, rather than the CCIs from primary transmitters. System designers will benefit from this result in planning and designing next-generation broadband spectrum-sharing systems.

  19. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 2. Application of process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, Rob P. [Department of Performance Assessment 6853, Sandia National Laboratories MS-0776, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0776 (United States)]. E-mail: rprecha@sandia.gov; Tierney, Martin S. [Plantae Research Associates, 415 Camino Manzano Santa Fe, NM 87505 (United States)

    2005-04-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Between 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA were assigned by a parameter development team, using a process described in a companion paper. In the five iterative PAs conducted, the most commonly used distributions were the uniform PDF and piecewise-uniform PDF (also referred to as a piecewise-linear cumulative distribution function (CDF)). Other distributions used included the truncated normal, truncated Student-t, and triangular PDFs. In a few instances, a discrete delta (piecewise-uniform CDF), beta, and exponential PDF were also used. The PDFs produced for the 24 most important parameters observed in the five iterative PAs are presented. As background, the list of 194 parameters documented in the first 1989 PA through the 1471 parameters documented in the 1996 compliance PA are also provided.

  20. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rechard, Rob P. [Performance Assessment Department 6853, MS-0776, P.O. Box 5800, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0776 (United States)]. E-mail: rprecha@sandia.gov; Tierney, Martin S. [Plantae Research Associates, 415 Camino Manzano Santa Fe, New Mexico 87505 (United States)

    2005-04-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10{sup 3}). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described.

  1. Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechard, Rob P.; Tierney, Martin S.

    2005-01-01

    A managed process was used to consistently and traceably develop probability distributions for parameters representing epistemic uncertainty in four preliminary and the final 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The key to the success of the process was the use of a three-member team consisting of a Parameter Task Leader, PA Analyst, and Subject Matter Expert. This team, in turn, relied upon a series of guidelines for selecting distribution types. The primary function of the guidelines was not to constrain the actual process of developing a parameter distribution but rather to establish a series of well-defined steps where recognized methods would be consistently applied to all parameters. An important guideline was to use a small set of distributions satisfying the maximum entropy formalism. Another important guideline was the consistent use of the log transform for parameters with large ranges (i.e. maximum/minimum>10 3 ). A parameter development team assigned 67 probability density functions (PDFs) in the 1989 PA and 236 PDFs in the 1996 PA using these and other guidelines described

  2. Predicting probability of occurrence and factors affecting distribution and abundance of three Ozark endemic crayfish species at multiple spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolen, Matthew S.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Wagner, Brian K.

    2014-01-01

    Crayfishes and other freshwater aquatic fauna are particularly at risk globally due to anthropogenic demand, manipulation and exploitation of freshwater resources and yet are often understudied. The Ozark faunal region of Missouri and Arkansas harbours a high level of aquatic biological diversity, especially in regard to endemic crayfishes. Three such endemics, Orconectes eupunctus,Orconectes marchandi and Cambarus hubbsi, are threatened by limited natural distribution and the invasions of Orconectes neglectus.

  3. A predictive mechanical model for evaluating vertebral fracture probability in lumbar spine under different osteoporotic drug therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, E; Ibarz, E; Herrera, A; Puértolas, S; Gabarre, S; Más, Y; Mateo, J; Gil-Albarova, J; Gracia, L

    2016-07-01

    Osteoporotic vertebral fractures represent a major cause of disability, loss of quality of life and even mortality among the elderly population. Decisions on drug therapy are based on the assessment of risk factors for fracture from bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. A previously developed model, based on the Damage and Fracture Mechanics, was applied for the evaluation of the mechanical magnitudes involved in the fracture process from clinical BMD measurements. BMD evolution in untreated patients and in patients with seven different treatments was analyzed from clinical studies in order to compare the variation in the risk of fracture. The predictive model was applied in a finite element simulation of the whole lumbar spine, obtaining detailed maps of damage and fracture probability, identifying high-risk local zones at vertebral body. For every vertebra, strontium ranelate exhibits the highest decrease, whereas minimum decrease is achieved with oral ibandronate. All the treatments manifest similar trends for every vertebra. Conversely, for the natural BMD evolution, as bone stiffness decreases, the mechanical damage and fracture probability show a significant increase (as it occurs in the natural history of BMD). Vertebral walls and external areas of vertebral end plates are the zones at greatest risk, in coincidence with the typical locations of osteoporotic fractures, characterized by a vertebral crushing due to the collapse of vertebral walls. This methodology could be applied for an individual patient, in order to obtain the trends corresponding to different treatments, in identifying at-risk individuals in early stages of osteoporosis and might be helpful for treatment decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. On the Efficient Simulation of the Distribution of the Sum of Gamma-Gamma Variates with Application to the Outage Probability Evaluation Over Fading Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki

    2016-06-01

    The Gamma-Gamma distribution has recently emerged in a number of applications ranging from modeling scattering and reverbation in sonar and radar systems to modeling atmospheric turbulence in wireless optical channels. In this respect, assessing the outage probability achieved by some diversity techniques over this kind of channels is of major practical importance. In many circumstances, this is intimately related to the difficult question of analyzing the statistics of a sum of Gamma-Gamma random variables. Answering this question is not a simple matter. This is essentially because outage probabilities encountered in practice are often very small, and hence the use of classical Monte Carlo methods is not a reasonable choice. This lies behind the main motivation of the present work. In particular, this paper proposes a new approach to estimate the left tail of the sum of Gamma-Gamma variates. More specifically, we propose a mean-shift importance sampling scheme that efficiently evaluates the outage probability of L-branch maximum ratio combining diversity receivers over Gamma-Gamma fading channels. The proposed estimator satisfies the well-known bounded relative error criterion, a well-desired property characterizing the robustness of importance sampling schemes, for both identically and non-identically independent distributed cases. We show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo via some selected numerical simulations.

  5. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  6. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  7. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  8. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  9. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  10. Modeling random telegraph signal noise in CMOS image sensor under low light based on binomial distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yu; Wang Guangyi; Lu Xinmiao; Hu Yongcai; Xu Jiangtao

    2016-01-01

    The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower based on the binomial distribution is set up. The number of electrons captured or released by the oxide traps in the unit time is described as the random variables which obey the binomial distribution. As a result, the output states and the corresponding probabilities of the first and the second samples of the correlated double sampling circuit are acquired. The standard deviation of the output states after the correlated double sampling circuit can be obtained accordingly. In the simulation section, one hundred thousand samples of the source follower MOSFET have been simulated, and the simulation results show that the proposed model has the similar statistical characteristics with the existing models under the effect of the channel length and the density of the oxide trap. Moreover, the noise histogram of the proposed model has been evaluated at different environmental temperatures. (paper)

  11. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  12. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  13. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think....... By doing so, we will obtain a deeper insight into how events involving large values of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are likely to occur....

  14. An attempt to model the probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 production of Aspergillus flavus under non-isothermal conditions in pistachio nuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldars-García, Laila; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, Vicente; Marín, Sonia

    2015-10-01

    Human exposure to aflatoxins in foods is of great concern. The aim of this work was to use predictive mycology as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin burden in pistachio nuts postharvest. The probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus, isolated from pistachio nuts, under static and non-isothermal conditions was studied. Four theoretical temperature scenarios, including temperature levels observed in pistachio nuts during shipping and storage, were used. Two types of inoculum were included: a cocktail of 25 A. flavus isolates and a single isolate inoculum. Initial water activity was adjusted to 0.87. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and AFB1 production under a constant temperature. Subsequently, they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios, with levels of concordance from 90 to 100% in most of the cases. Furthermore, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted in 70-81 % of the cases from a growth model developed in pistachio nuts, and in 67-81% of the cases from an AFB1 model developed in pistachio agar. The information obtained in the present work could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus on pistachio nuts during transport and storage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Chronic transgenerational vitamin B12 deficiency of severe and moderate magnitudes modulates adiposity-probable underlying mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Shampa; Sinha, Jitendra Kumar; Muralikrishna, Bojanapalli; Putcha, Uday Kumar; Raghunath, Manchala

    2017-05-06

    We have demonstrated previously that severe but not moderate vitamin B12 deficiency altered body composition and induced adiposity in female C57BL/6 mice. This study aims to elucidate the effects of chronic transgenerational dietary vitamin B12 restriction on body composition and various biochemical parameters in the F1 generation offspring of our mouse models of severe and moderate vitamin B12 deficiency established earlier. Female weanling C57BL/6 mice received, ad libitum, for 4 weeks a (i) control diet, (ii) vitamin B12-restricted diet with pectin as dietary fiber (severely deficient diet), or (iii) vitamin B12-restricted diet with cellulose as dietary fiber (moderately deficient diet) and then mated with control males. The offspring of control and severely deficient dams continued on the respective diets of their mothers. Few moderately deficient dams were rehabilitated to control diet from parturition and their pups were weaned to control diet. Also, some offspring born to moderately B12 deficient dams were weaned to control diet, while others continued on the same diet as their mothers. Various parameters were determined in the F1 offspring after 12 and 36 weeks of feeding. The results indicate that both severe and moderate maternal vitamin B12 restrictions were associated with accelerated catch-up growth, increased body fat percentage, visceral adiposity, dyslipidemia, fasting hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in the F1 offspring. Inflammation, increased glucocorticoid and oxidative stress and poor antioxidant defence probably underlie these adverse effects. Rehabilitation from parturition but not weaning was beneficial in delaying the onset of the adverse outcomes in the offspring. © 2016 BioFactors, 43(3):400-414, 2017. © 2017 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

  16. A pandeid hydrozoan, Amphinema sp., new and probably introduced to central California: life history, morphology, distribution and systematics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Rees

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available A pandeid hydrozoan new to California, Amphinema sp., was collected in 1998 as a hydroid living on the non-indigenous bryozoan, Watersipora subtorquata, attached to floats in Bodega Harbor 80 km north of San Francisco Bay. The hydroid was cultured in the laboratory and medusae it released were raised to maturity. No species name could be assigned because although the hydroid colony structure and morphology of the polyp most closely resemble descriptions of Amphinema rugosum, the immature and adult medusae best resemble A. dinema. These two described species are known from widely-spaced locations worldwide including Europe (British Isles and the Mediterranean, New England, the Caribbean, east Africa, India, Japan and China, implying that they may transport easily between sites by man´s activities. Such wide-spread distributions of both species, coupled with the notable absence of Amphinema sp. from Bodega Harbor during a number of previous field surveys in the 1970´s, strongly intimates that Amphinemasp. has been introduced from elsewhere into Bodega Harbor during the past 25 years. Two additional species of Amphinema medusae present on the west coast of North America are discussed.

  17. Voltage Control in Distributed Generation under Measurement Falsification Attacks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma, M.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van den Berg, J.; Palensky, P.

    2017-01-01

    Low-voltage distribution grids experience a rising penetration of inverter-based, distributed generation. In order to not only contribute to but also solve voltage problems, these inverters are increasingly asked to participate in intelligent grid controls. Communicating inverters implement

  18. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  19. Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Shuang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

  20. On the Efficient Simulation of the Distribution of the Sum of Gamma-Gamma Variates with Application to the Outage Probability Evaluation Over Fading Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Issaid, Chaouki

    2017-01-26

    The Gamma-Gamma distribution has recently emerged in a number of applications ranging from modeling scattering and reverberation in sonar and radar systems to modeling atmospheric turbulence in wireless optical channels. In this respect, assessing the outage probability achieved by some diversity techniques over this kind of channels is of major practical importance. In many circumstances, this is related to the difficult question of analyzing the statistics of a sum of Gamma- Gamma random variables. Answering this question is not a simple matter. This is essentially because outage probabilities encountered in practice are often very small, and hence the use of classical Monte Carlo methods is not a reasonable choice. This lies behind the main motivation of the present work. In particular, this paper proposes a new approach to estimate the left tail of the sum of Gamma-Gamma variates. More specifically, we propose robust importance sampling schemes that efficiently evaluates the outage probability of diversity receivers over Gamma-Gamma fading channels. The proposed estimators satisfy the well-known bounded relative error criterion for both maximum ratio combining and equal gain combining cases. We show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo via some selected numerical simulations.

  1. Inadequate housing among families under investigation for child abuse and neglect: prevalence from a national probability sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Patrick J; Henry, David B; Schoeny, Michael; Landsverk, John; Chavira, Dina; Taylor, Jeremy J

    2013-09-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of inadequate housing that threaten out-of-home placement among families under investigation by child welfare. Data came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of child welfare-involved families. Child protective services caseworkers as well as caregivers provided information on families whose child remained in the home after initial investigation (N = 3,867). Multilevel latent class analyses tested the presence of inadequately housed subgroups using 4 housing problem indicators at baseline. Logistic regressions assessed convergent and predictive validity. A two class latent solution best fit the data. Findings indicated that inadequate housing contributed to risk for out-of-home placement in approximately 16 % of intact families under investigation by child protective services. These families were 4 times more likely to need housing services 12 months later. Federal legislation emphasizes integration of social services as necessary to end homelessness. This study demonstrates overlap across public agencies. Enhanced coordination of child welfare and housing services facilitates interventions to prevent and mitigate homelessness.

  2. Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.; Whetton, P. H.

    2011-04-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations among global climate models. This paper applies a method of estimating distributions and "probability density functions" (PDFs) for forced change, based on the pattern scaling technique and previously used for Australia, to generate changes in temperature and precipitation at locations over the globe, from simulations of 23 CMIP3 models. Changes for 2030 and 2100, under the A1B scenario for concentrations, for both seasonal and annual cases are presented. The PDFs for temperature have a standard deviation that averages 31% of the mean change, and they tend to be positively skewed. The standard deviation for precipitation averages 15% of the base climate mean, leading to five and 95 percentile estimates that are of opposite sign for most of the globe. A further source of uncertainty of change for a particular period of time, such as a decadal average, is the unforced or internal variability of climate. A joint probability distribution approach is used to produce PDFs for decadal means by adding in an estimate of internal variability. In the decade centered on 2030, this broadens the PDFs substantially. The results are related to time series of observations and projections over 1900-2100 for the agricultural regions of Iowa and the Murray-Darling Basin. For most land areas, warming becomes clearly discernable, allowing for both uncertainties, in the next few decades. Data files of the key results are provided.

  3. Distributed Multisensor Data Fusion under Unknown Correlation and Data Inconsistency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Abu Bakr

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paradigm of multisensor data fusion has been evolved from a centralized architecture to a decentralized or distributed architecture along with the advancement in sensor and communication technologies. These days, distributed state estimation and data fusion has been widely explored in diverse fields of engineering and control due to its superior performance over the centralized one in terms of flexibility, robustness to failure and cost effectiveness in infrastructure and communication. However, distributed multisensor data fusion is not without technical challenges to overcome: namely, dealing with cross-correlation and inconsistency among state estimates and sensor data. In this paper, we review the key theories and methodologies of distributed multisensor data fusion available to date with a specific focus on handling unknown correlation and data inconsistency. We aim at providing readers with a unifying view out of individual theories and methodologies by presenting a formal analysis of their implications. Finally, several directions of future research are highlighted.

  4. Distributed Multisensor Data Fusion under Unknown Correlation and Data Inconsistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakr, Muhammad Abu; Lee, Sukhan

    2017-10-27

    The paradigm of multisensor data fusion has been evolved from a centralized architecture to a decentralized or distributed architecture along with the advancement in sensor and communication technologies. These days, distributed state estimation and data fusion has been widely explored in diverse fields of engineering and control due to its superior performance over the centralized one in terms of flexibility, robustness to failure and cost effectiveness in infrastructure and communication. However, distributed multisensor data fusion is not without technical challenges to overcome: namely, dealing with cross-correlation and inconsistency among state estimates and sensor data. In this paper, we review the key theories and methodologies of distributed multisensor data fusion available to date with a specific focus on handling unknown correlation and data inconsistency. We aim at providing readers with a unifying view out of individual theories and methodologies by presenting a formal analysis of their implications. Finally, several directions of future research are highlighted.

  5. Distributed Secure Coordinated Control for Multiagent Systems Under Strategic Attacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhi; Wen, Guanghui; Hu, Guoqiang

    2017-05-01

    This paper studies a distributed secure consensus tracking control problem for multiagent systems subject to strategic cyber attacks modeled by a random Markov process. A hybrid stochastic secure control framework is established for designing a distributed secure control law such that mean-square exponential consensus tracking is achieved. A connectivity restoration mechanism is considered and the properties on attack frequency and attack length rate are investigated, respectively. Based on the solutions of an algebraic Riccati equation and an algebraic Riccati inequality, a procedure to select the control gains is provided and stability analysis is studied by using Lyapunov's method.. The effect of strategic attacks on discrete-time systems is also investigated. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.

  6. Spatial distributions at equilibrium under heterogeneous transient subdiffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Hugues; Soula, Hédi A

    2014-01-01

    Experimental measurements of the mobility of macromolecules, especially proteins, in cells and their membranes consistently report transient subdiffusion with possibly position-dependent-non-homogeneous-properties. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of protein mobility when transient subdiffusion is restricted to a subregion of space is still unclear. Here, we investigated the spatial distribution at equilibrium of proteins undergoing transient subdiffusion due to continuous-time random walks (CTRW) in a restricted subregion of a two-dimensional space. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that this process leads to a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the proteins at equilibrium, where proteins increasingly accumulate in the CTRW subregion as its anomalous properties are increasingly marked. In the case of transient CTRW, we show that this accumulation is dictated by the asymptotic Brownian regime and not by the initial anomalous transient dynamics. Moreover, our results also show that this dominance of the asymptotic Brownian regime cannot be simply generalized to other scenarios of transient subdiffusion. In particular, non-homogeneous transient subdiffusion due to hindrance by randomly-located immobile obstacles does not lead to such a strong local accumulation. These results suggest that, even though they exhibit the same time-dependence of the mean-squared displacement, the different scenarios proposed to account for subdiffusion in the cell lead to different protein distribution in space, even at equilibrium and without coupling with reaction.

  7. Spatial distributions at equilibrium under heterogeneous transient subdiffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugues eBerry

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Experimental measurements of the mobility of macromolecules, especially proteins, in cells and their membranes consistently report transient subdiffusion with possibly position-dependent -- nonhomogeneous -- properties. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of protein mobility when transient subdiffusion is restricted to a subregion of space is still unclear. Here, we investigated the spatial distribution at equilibrium of proteins undergoing transient subdiffusion due to continuous-time random walks (CTRW in a restricted subregion of a two-dimensional space. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that this process leads to a nonhomogeneous spatial distribution of the proteins at equilibrium, where proteins increasingly accumulate in the CTRW subregion as its anomalous properties are increasingly marked. In the case of transient CTRW, we show that this accumulation is dictated by the asymptotic Brownian regime and not by the initial anomalous transient dynamics. Moreover, our results also show that this dominance of the asymptotic Brownian regime cannot be simply generalized to other scenarios of transient subdiffusion. In particular, nonhomogeneous transient subdiffusion due to hindrance by randomly-located immobile obstacles does not lead to such a strong local accumulation. These results suggest that, even though they exhibit the same time-dependence of the mean-squared displacement, the different scenarios proposed to account for subdiffusion in the cell lead to different protein distribution in space, even at equilibrium and without coupling with reaction.

  8. Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier

    2017-08-01

    Dry spells are an essential concept of drought climatology that clearly defines the semiarid Mediterranean environment and whose consequences are a defining feature for an ecosystem, so vulnerable with regard to water. The present study was conducted to characterize rainfall drought in the Segura River basin located in eastern Spain, marked by the self seasonal nature of these latitudes. A daily precipitation set has been utilized for 29 weather stations during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). Furthermore, four sets of dry spell length (complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum) are used and simulated for all the weather stations with the following probability distribution functions: Burr, Dagum, error, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, Gumbel Max, inverse Gaussian, Johnson SB, Log-Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Triangular, Weibull, and Wakeby. Only the series of annual maximum spell offer a good adjustment for all the weather stations, thereby gaining the role of Wakeby as the best result, with a p value means of 0.9424 for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (0.2 significance level). Probability of dry spell duration for return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years maps reveal the northeast-southeast gradient, increasing periods with annual rainfall of less than 0.1 mm in the eastern third of the basin, in the proximity of the Mediterranean slope.

  9. Impact of distributed generation in the probability density of voltage sags; Impacto da geracao distribuida na densidade de probabilidade de afundamentos de tensao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramos, Alessandro Candido Lopes [CELG - Companhia Energetica de Goias, Goiania, GO (Brazil). Generation and Transmission. System' s Operation Center], E-mail: alessandro.clr@celg.com.br; Batista, Adalberto Jose [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil)], E-mail: batista@eee.ufg.br; Leborgne, Roberto Chouhy [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)], E-mail: rcl@ece.ufrgs.br; Emiliano, Pedro Henrique Mota, E-mail: ph@phph.com.br

    2009-07-01

    This article presents the impact of distributed generation in studies of voltage sags caused by faults in the electrical system. We simulated short-circuit-to-ground in 62 lines of 230, 138, 69 and 13.8 kV that are part of the electrical system of the city of Goiania, of Goias state . For each fault position was monitored the bus voltage of 380 V in an industrial consumer sensitive to such sags. Were inserted different levels of GD near the consumer. The simulations of a short circuit, with the monitoring bar 380 V, were performed again. A study using stochastic simulation Monte Carlo (SMC) was performed to obtain, at each level of GD, the probability curves and sags of the probability density and its voltage class. With these curves were obtained the average number of sags according to each class, that the consumer bar may be submitted annually. The simulations were performed using the Program Analysis of Simultaneous Faults - ANAFAS. In order to overcome the intrinsic limitations of the methods of simulation of this program and allow data entry via windows, a computational tool was developed in Java language. Data processing was done using the MATLAB software.

  10. The Profit Distribution of Supply Chain under E-Commerce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-Hua Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of e-commerce, its influence on supply chain and supply chain management is becoming increasingly significant too. In this paper, the literature on the supply chain profit is reviewed first, and then a two-level and four-party supply chain which consists of a supplier, an e-commerce platform, third-party logistics, and demander is taken into consideration. The profit function of supply chain under e-commerce is formulated by taking the price of product and the maximum supply amount under certain investment as decision-making variables and taking the expected value of random variables of price as the setting sales quantity. Finally, the existence of maximum profit in the supply chain is proved in the model, and the coordination of supply chain under e-commerce environment can be achieved by setting coordination parameters when the relevant cost parameters of supply chain members satisfy certain conditions.

  11. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  12. On misclassication probabilities of linear and quadratic classiers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We study the theoretical misclassication probability of linear and quadratic classiers and examine the performance of these classiers under distributional variations in theory and using simulation. We derive expression for Bayes errors for some competing distributions from the same family under location shift. Keywords: ...

  13. Phosphorus distribution in sandy soil profile under drip irrigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Gendy, R.W.; Rizk, M.A.; Abd El Moniem, M.; Abdel-Aziz, H.A.; Fahmi, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    This work aims at to studying the impact of irrigation water applied using drip irrigation system in sandy soil with snap bean on phosphorus distribution. This experiment was carried out in soils and water research department farm, nuclear research center, atomic energy authority, cairo, Egypt. Snap bean was cultivated in sandy soil and irrigated with 50,37.5 and 25 cm water in three water treatments represented 100, 75 and 50% ETc. Phosphorus distribution and direction of soil water movement had been detected in three sites on the dripper line (S1,S2 and S3 at 0,12.5 and 25 cm distance from dripper). Phosphorus fertilizer (super phosphate, 15.5% P 2 O 5 in rate 300 kg/fed)was added before cultivation. Neutron probe was used to detect the water distribution and movement at the three site along soil profile. Soil samples were collected before p-addition, at end developing, mid, and late growth stages to determine residual available phosphorus. The obtained data showed that using 50 cm water for irrigation caused an increase in P-concentration till 75 cm depth in the three sites of 100% etc treatment, and covered P-requirements of snap bean for all growth stages. As for 37.5 and 25 cm irrigation water cannot cover all growth stages for P-requirements of snap bean. It could be concluded that applied irrigation water could drive the residual P-levels till 75 cm depth in the three sites. Yield of the crop had been taken as an indicator as an indicator profile. Yield showed good response according to water quantities and P-transportation within the soil profile

  14. Assessing mechanical vulnerability in water distribution networks under multiple failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, Luigi; Ugarelli, Rita; Røstum, Jon; Giustolisi, Orazio

    2014-03-01

    Understanding mechanical vulnerability of water distribution networks (WDN) is of direct relevance for water utilities since it entails two different purposes. On the one hand, it might support the identification of severe failure scenarios due to external causes (e.g., natural or intentional events) which result into the most critical consequences on WDN supply capacity. On the other hand, it aims at figure out the WDN portions which are more prone to be affected by asset disruptions. The complexity of such analysis stems from the number of possible scenarios with single and multiple simultaneous shutdowns of asset elements leading to modifications of network topology and insufficient water supply to customers. In this work, the search for the most disruptive combinations of multiple asset failure events is formulated and solved as a multiobjective optimization problem. The higher vulnerability failure scenarios are detected as those causing the lower supplied demand due to the lower number of simultaneous failures. The automatic detection of WDN topology, subsequent to the detachments of failed elements, is combined with pressure-driven analysis. The methodology is demonstrated on a real water distribution network. Results show that, besides the failures causing the detachment of reservoirs, tanks, or pumps, there are other different topological modifications which may cause severe WDN service disruptions. Such information is of direct relevance to support planning asset enhancement works and improve the preparedness to extreme events.

  15. Bootstrap confidence intervals for the process capability index under half-logistic distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

    2012-01-01

    This study concerns the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals for theprocess capability index in the case of half-logistic distribution. The bootstrap confidence intervals applied consist of standard bootstrap confidence interval, percentile bootstrap confidence interval and bias-corrected percentile bootstrap confidence interval. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the estimated coverage probabilities and average widths ofbootstrap confidence intervals are compared, with results showing ...

  16. On Probability Domains IV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-12-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  17. Distributionally Robust Joint Chance Constrained Problem under Moment Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-wei Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss and develop the convex approximation for robust joint chance constraints under uncertainty of first- and second-order moments. Robust chance constraints are approximated by Worst-Case CVaR constraints which can be reformulated by a semidefinite programming. Then the chance constrained problem can be presented as semidefinite programming. We also find that the approximation for robust joint chance constraints has an equivalent individual quadratic approximation form.

  18. Smooth conditional distribution function and quantiles under random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leconte, Eve; Poiraud-Casanova, Sandrine; Thomas-Agnan, Christine

    2002-09-01

    We consider a nonparametric random design regression model in which the response variable is possibly right censored. The aim of this paper is to estimate the conditional distribution function and the conditional alpha-quantile of the response variable. We restrict attention to the case where the response variable as well as the explanatory variable are unidimensional and continuous. We propose and discuss two classes of estimators which are smooth with respect to the response variable as well as to the covariate. Some simulations demonstrate that the new methods have better mean square error performances than the generalized Kaplan-Meier estimator introduced by Beran (1981) and considered in the literature by Dabrowska (1989, 1992) and Gonzalez-Manteiga and Cadarso-Suarez (1994).

  19. Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

    2008-08-11

    This paper examines a California-based microgrid?s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist.

  20. Distributed generation investment by a microgrid under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines a California-based microgrid's decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist. (author)

  1. Additional evidence for the universality of the probability distribution of turbulent fluctuations and fluxes in the scrape-off layer region of fusion plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Milligen, B. Ph.; Sánchez, R.; Carreras, B. A.; Lynch, V. E.; LaBombard, B.; Pedrosa, M. A.; Hidalgo, C.; Gonçalves, B.; Balbín, R.

    2005-05-01

    Plasma density fluctuations and electrostatic turbulent fluxes measured at the scrape-off layer of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak [B. LaBombard, R. L. Boivin, M. Greenwald, J. Hughes, B. Lipschultz, D. Mossessian, C. S. Pitcher, J. L. Terry, and S. J. Zweben, Phys. Plasmas 8, 2107 (2001)], the Wendelstein 7-Advanced Stellarator [H. Renner, E. Anabitarte, E. Ascasibar et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 31, 1579 (1989)], and the TJ-II stellarator [C. Alejaldre, J. Alonso, J. Botija et al., Fusion Technol. 17, 131 (1990)] are shown to obey a non-Gaussian but apparently universal (i.e., not dependent on device and discharge parameters) probability density distribution (pdf). The fact that a specific shape acts as an attractor for the pdf seems to suggest that emergent behavior and self-regulation are relevant concepts for these fluctuations. This shape is closely similar to the so-called Bramwell, Holdsworth, and Pinton distribution, which does not have any free parameters.

  2. The geostatistic-based spatial distribution variations of soil salts under long-term wastewater irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyong; Yin, Shiyang; Liu, Honglu; Niu, Yong; Bao, Zhe

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine and evaluate the spatial changes in soil salinity by using geostatistical methods. The study focused on the suburb area of Beijing, where urban development led to water shortage and accelerated wastewater reuse to farm irrigation for more than 30 years. The data were then processed by GIS using three different interpolation techniques of ordinary kriging (OK), disjunctive kriging (DK), and universal kriging (UK). The normality test and overall trend analysis were applied for each interpolation technique to select the best fitted model for soil parameters. Results showed that OK was suitable for soil sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and Na(+) interpolation; UK was suitable for soil Cl(-) and pH; DK was suitable for soil Ca(2+). The nugget-to-sill ratio was applied to evaluate the effects of structural and stochastic factors. The maps showed that the areas of non-saline soil and slight salinity soil accounted for 6.39 and 93.61%, respectively. The spatial distribution and accumulation of soil salt were significantly affected by the irrigation probabilities and drainage situation under long-term wastewater irrigation.

  3. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

    2008-08-18

    The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

  4. Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Maribu, Karl

    2009-01-01

    The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplating the installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility. (author)

  5. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  6. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  7. Control of power converters in distributed generation applications under grid fault conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Pedro; Luna, Alvaro; Munoz-Aguilar, Raul

    2011-01-01

    The operation of distributed power generation systems under grid fault conditions is a key issue for the massive integration of renewable energy systems. Several studies have been conducted to improve the response of such distributed generation systems under voltage dips. In spite of being less s...

  8. Current Control Method for Distributed Generation Power Generation Plants under Grid Fault Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Pedro; Luna, Alvaro; Hermoso, Juan Ramon

    2011-01-01

    The operation of distributed power generation systems under grid fault conditions is a key issue for the massive integration of renewable energy systems. Several studies have been conducted to improve the response of such distributed generation systems under voltage dips. In spite of being less s...

  9. Differential spatial distribution of arthropods under epiphytic lichens on trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Itzhak Martinez

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Epiphytic lichen thalli on trees may protect arthropods - herbivores or their natural enemies. Although the relationships between lichens on the forest floor to arthropods have been widely studied in boreal regions, those between epiphytic lichens and the arboreal arthropod fauna in temperate and Mediterranean climates are poorly investigated. In particular it is unknown if the animals use lichens differently located on different part of the trees. Our results indicate that numerous arthropods, herbivores and predators, may live in epiphytic lichen cover, and that more of them are found on the trunk than on old or young branches: an average of 2000 individuals were found under each meter square of the thallus covering the trunk of 20 trees, but fewer on branches. In particular more insects from more Orders were detected on trunks than on branches. We propose that this issue should be investigated further to clarify the exact status of epiphytic lichens in arthropod biodiversity conservation.

  10. Monte Carlo dose calculations and radiobiological modelling: analysis of the effect of the statistical noise of the dose distribution on the probability of tumour control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffa, Francesca M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of the statistical fluctuations of Monte Carlo (MC) dose distributions on the dose volume histograms (DVHs) and radiobiological models, in particular the Poisson model for tumour control probability (tcp). The MC matrix is characterized by a mean dose in each scoring voxel, d, and a statistical error on the mean dose, σ d ; whilst the quantities d and σ d depend on many statistical and physical parameters, here we consider only their dependence on the phantom voxel size and the number of histories from the radiation source. Dose distributions from high-energy photon beams have been analysed. It has been found that the DVH broadens when increasing the statistical noise of the dose distribution, and the tcp calculation systematically underestimates the real tumour control value, defined here as the value of tumour control when the statistical error of the dose distribution tends to zero. When increasing the number of energy deposition events, either by increasing the voxel dimensions or increasing the number of histories from the source, the DVH broadening decreases and tcp converges to the 'correct' value. It is shown that the underestimation of the tcp due to the noise in the dose distribution depends on the degree of heterogeneity of the radiobiological parameters over the population; in particular this error decreases with increasing the biological heterogeneity, whereas it becomes significant in the hypothesis of a radiosensitivity assay for single patients, or for subgroups of patients. It has been found, for example, that when the voxel dimension is changed from a cube with sides of 0.5 cm to a cube with sides of 0.25 cm (with a fixed number of histories of 10 8 from the source), the systematic error in the tcp calculation is about 75% in the homogeneous hypothesis, and it decreases to a minimum value of about 15% in a case of high radiobiological heterogeneity. The possibility of using the error on the

  11. Water quality analysis in rivers with non-parametric probability distributions and fuzzy inference systems: application to the Cauca River, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocampo-Duque, William; Osorio, Carolina; Piamba, Christian; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2013-02-01

    The integration of water quality monitoring variables is essential in environmental decision making. Nowadays, advanced techniques to manage subjectivity, imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness, and variability are required in such complex evaluation process. We here propose a probabilistic fuzzy hybrid model to assess river water quality. Fuzzy logic reasoning has been used to compute a water quality integrative index. By applying a Monte Carlo technique, based on non-parametric probability distributions, the randomness of model inputs was estimated. Annual histograms of nine water quality variables were built with monitoring data systematically collected in the Colombian Cauca River, and probability density estimations using the kernel smoothing method were applied to fit data. Several years were assessed, and river sectors upstream and downstream the city of Santiago de Cali, a big city with basic wastewater treatment and high industrial activity, were analyzed. The probabilistic fuzzy water quality index was able to explain the reduction in water quality, as the river receives a larger number of agriculture, domestic, and industrial effluents. The results of the hybrid model were compared to traditional water quality indexes. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it considers flexible boundaries between the linguistic qualifiers used to define the water status, being the belongingness of water quality to the diverse output fuzzy sets or classes provided with percentiles and histograms, which allows classify better the real water condition. The results of this study show that fuzzy inference systems integrated to stochastic non-parametric techniques may be used as complementary tools in water quality indexing methodologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Temperature distribution in the human body under various conditions of induced hyperthermia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korobko, O. V.; Perelman, T. L.; Fradkin, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model based on heat balance equations was developed for studying temperature distribution in the human body under deep hyperthermia which is often induced in the treatment of malignant tumors. The model yields results which are in satisfactory agreement with experimental data. The distribution of temperature under various conditions of induced hyperthermia, i.e. as a function of water temperature and supply rate, is examined on the basis of temperature distribution curves in various body zones.

  13. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  14. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  15. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  16. Large-Scale Control of the Probability Distribution Function of Precipitation over the Continental US in Observations and Models, in the Current and Future Climat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straus, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    The goals of this research are to: (a) identify features of the probability distribution function (pdf) of pentad precipitation over the continental US (CONUS) that are controlled by the configuration of the large-scale fields, including both tails of the pdf, hence droughts and floods, and the overall shape of the pdf, e.g. skewness and kurtosis; (b) estimate the changes in the properties of the pdf controlled by the large-scale in a future climate. We first describe the significant dependence of the observed precipitation pdf conditioned on circulation regimes over CONUS. The regime states, and the number of regimes, are obtained by a method that assures a high degree of significance, and a high degree of pattern correlation between the states in a regime and its average. The regime-conditioned pdfs yield information on times scales from intra-seasonal to inter-annual. We then apply this method to atmospheric simulations run with the EC-Earth version 3 model for historical sea-surface temperatures (SST) and future (RCP8.5 CMIP5 scenario) estimates of SST, at resolutions T255 and T799, to understand what dynamically controlled changes in the precipitation pdf can be expected in a future climate.

  17. Multicritical phase diagrams of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling including metastable phases: the pair approximation and the path probability method with pair distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keskin, Mustafa; Erdinc, Ahmet

    2004-01-01

    As a continuation of the previously published work, the pair approximation of the cluster variation method is applied to study the temperature dependences of the order parameters of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model with repulsive biquadratic coupling on a body centered cubic lattice. We obtain metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters besides the stable branches and phase transitions of these branches are investigated extensively. We study the dynamics of the model by the path probability method with pair distribution in order to make sure that we find and define the metastable and unstable branches of the order parameters completely and correctly. We present the metastable phase diagram in addition to the equilibrium phase diagram and also the first-order phase transition line for the unstable branches of the quadrupole order parameter is superimposed on the phase diagrams. It is found that the metastable phase diagram and the first-order phase boundary for the unstable quadrupole order parameter always exist at the low temperatures which are consistent with experimental and theoretical works

  18. Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crema, Enrico R; Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

  19. A weighted bootstrap method for the determination of probability density functions of freshwater distribution coefficients (Kds) of Co, Cs, Sr and I radioisotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrieu, G; Ciffroy, P; Garnier, J-M

    2006-11-01

    The objective of the study was to provide global probability density functions (PDFs) representing the uncertainty of distribution coefficients (Kds) in freshwater for radioisotopes of Co, Cs, Sr and I. A comprehensive database containing Kd values referenced in 61 articles was first built and quality scores were affected to each data point according to various criteria (e.g. presentation of data, contact times, pH, solid-to-liquid ratio, expert judgement). A weighted bootstrapping procedure was then set up in order to build PDFs, in such a way that more importance is given to the most relevant data points (i.e. those corresponding to typical natural environments). However, it was also assessed that the relevance and the robustness of the PDFs determined by our procedure depended on the number of Kd values in the database. Owing to the large database, conditional PDFs were also proposed, for site studies where some parametric information is known (e.g. pH, contact time between radionuclides and particles, solid-to-liquid ratio). Such conditional PDFs reduce the uncertainty on the Kd values. These global and conditional PDFs are useful for end-users of dose models because the uncertainty and sensitivity of Kd values are taking into account.

  20. Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico R Crema

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

  1. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  2. Bulk stress distributions in the pore space of sphere-packed beds under Darcy flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Ngoc H; Voronov, Roman S; Tummala, Naga Rajesh; Papavassiliou, Dimitrios V

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, bulk stress distributions in the pore space of columns packed with spheres are numerically computed with lattice Boltzmann simulations. Three different ideally packed and one randomly packed configuration of the columns are considered under Darcy flow conditions. The stress distributions change when the packing type changes. In the Darcy regime, the normalized stress distribution for a particular packing type is independent of the pressure difference that drives the flow and presents a common pattern. The three parameter (3P) log-normal distribution is found to describe the stress distributions in the randomly packed beds within statistical accuracy. In addition, the 3P log-normal distribution is still valid when highly porous scaffold geometries rather than sphere beds are examined. It is also shown that the 3P log-normal distribution can describe the bulk stress distribution in consolidated reservoir rocks like Berea sandstone.

  3. Limit distributions for the terms of central order statistics under power normalization

    OpenAIRE

    El Sayed M. Nigm

    2007-01-01

    In this paper the limiting distributions for sequences of central terms under power nonrandom normalization are obtained. The classes of the limit types having domain of L- attraction are investigated.

  4. Limit distributions for the terms of central order statistics under power normalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Sayed M. Nigm

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the limiting distributions for sequences of central terms under power nonrandom normalization are obtained. The classes of the limit types having domain of L- attraction are investigated.

  5. Humic substances and its distribution in coffee crop under cover crops and weed control methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Henrique Martins

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Humic substances (HS comprise the passive element in soil organic matter (SOM, and represent one of the soil carbon pools which may be altered by different cover crops and weed control methods. This study aimed to assess HS distribution and characteristics in an experimental coffee crop area subjected to cover crops and cultural, mechanical, and chemical weed control. The study was carried out at Londrina, in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil (23°21’30” S; 51°10’17” W. In 2008, seven weed control/cover crops were established in a randomized block design between two coffee rows as the main-plot factor per plot and soil sampling depths (0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-30 cm and 30-40 cm as a split-plot. HS were extracted through alkaline and acid solutions and analyzed by chromic acid wet oxidation and UV-Vis spectroscopy. Chemical attributes presented variations in the topsoil between the field conditions analyzed. Cover crop cutting and coffee tree pruning residues left on the soil surface may have interfered in nutrient cycling and the humification process. Data showed that humic substances comprised about 50 % of SOM. Although different cover crops and weed control methods did not alter humic and fulvic acid carbon content, a possible incidence of condensed aromatic structures at depth increments in fulvic acids was observed, leading to an average decrease of 53 % in the E4/E6 ratio. Humin carbon content increased 25 % in the topsoil, particularly under crop weed-control methods, probably due to high incorporation of recalcitrant structures from coffee tree pruning residues and cover crops.

  6. the theory of probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    OF PROBABILITY *. The simplest laws of natural science are those that state the conditions under which some event of interest to us will either certainly occur or certainly not occur; i.e., these conditions may be expressed in one of the following two forms: 1. If a complex (i.e., a set or collection) of conditions S is realized, then.

  7. Explicit expressions for European option pricing under a generalized skew normal distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Doostparast, Mahdi

    2017-01-01

    Under a generalized skew normal distribution we consider the problem of European option pricing. Existence of the martingale measure is proved. An explicit expression for a given European option price is presented in terms of the cumulative distribution function of the univariate skew normal and the bivariate standard normal distributions. Some special cases are investigated in a greater detail. To carry out the sensitivity of the option price to the skew parameters, numerical methods are app...

  8. Distribution of mycorrhizal fungal spores in soils under agroforestry and monocultural coffee systems in Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Boddington, C.L.; Janssen, B.H.; Oenema, O.; Kuyper, T.W.

    2003-01-01

    Deep-rooting trees in agroforestry systems may promote distribution of spores of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) at deeper soil levels. We investigated the vertical distribution of AMF spores in Oxisols under agroforestry and monocultural (unshaded) coffee systems in on-farm experiments (

  9. Open Access This is an Open Access article distributed under the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Medicine and Biomedical Research ... Open Access This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the creative commons Attribution 4.0 licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the.

  10. Analysis of biopsy outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy of prostate cancer using dose-distribution variables and tumor control probability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levegruen, Sabine; Jackson, Andrew; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Venkatraman, Ennapadam S.; Skwarchuk, Mark W.; Schlegel, Wolfgang; Fuks, Zvi; Leibel, Steven A.; Ling, C. Clifton

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate tumor control following three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) of prostate cancer and to identify dose-distribution variables that correlate with local control assessed through posttreatment prostate biopsies. Methods and Material: Data from 132 patients, treated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), who had a prostate biopsy 2.5 years or more after 3D-CRT for T1c-T3 prostate cancer with prescription doses of 64.8-81 Gy were analyzed. Variables derived from the dose distribution in the PTV included: minimum dose (Dmin), maximum dose (Dmax), mean dose (Dmean), dose to n% of the PTV (Dn), where n = 1%, ..., 99%. The concept of the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) was evaluated for different values of the surviving fraction at 2 Gy (SF 2 ). Four tumor control probability (TCP) models (one phenomenologic model using a logistic function and three Poisson cell kill models) were investigated using two sets of input parameters, one for low and one for high T-stage tumors. Application of both sets to all patients was also investigated. In addition, several tumor-related prognostic variables were examined (including T-stage, Gleason score). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. The ability of the logistic regression models (univariate and multivariate) to predict the biopsy result correctly was tested by performing cross-validation analyses and evaluating the results in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: In univariate analysis, prescription dose (Dprescr), Dmax, Dmean, dose to n% of the PTV with n of 70% or less correlate with outcome (p 2 : EUD correlates significantly with outcome for SF 2 of 0.4 or more, but not for lower SF 2 values. Using either of the two input parameters sets, all TCP models correlate with outcome (p 2 , is limited because the low dose region may not coincide with the tumor location. Instead, for MSKCC prostate cancer patients with their

  11. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Developing spatial models of sugar kelp ( Saccharina latissima) potential distribution under natural conditions and areas of its disappearance in Skagerrak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekkby, Trine; Moy, Frithjof E.

    2011-12-01

    Sugar kelp ( Saccharina latissima) forests have an important ecological function in the coastal zone, as they inhabit a high number and a specific composition of fauna. In 2002, a large-scale disappearance of sugar kelp was observed in Skagerrak and parts of the south-western coast of Norway, and the perennial sugar kelp forests were replaced by opportunistic and ephemeral filamentous algae. For management purposes, including identifying areas for restoration initiatives, maps of where sugar kelp forests are supposed to be found and where and under what conditions they have disappeared are needed. Based on modelled and field-measured geophysical variables and presence/absence/loss data of sugar kelp, we therefore developed spatial predictive probability models (i.e. maps) for sugar kelp potential distribution under natural conditions and areas of kelp loss. The influence of geophysical factors was analysed using generalized additive models (GAMs). Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, we found that wave exposure, depth, light exposure and slope best explained the potential distribution of sugar kelp. Areas of sugar kelp disappearance were identified by the combined effect of wave and light exposure. These models were developed into maps presented to the managers.

  13. Thermal pulse measurements of space charge distributions under an applied electric field in thin films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Feihu; An, Zhenlian; Zhang, Yewen; Liu, Chuandong; Lin, Chen; Lei, Qingquan

    2013-01-01

    The thermal pulse method is a powerful method to measure space charge and polarization distributions in thin dielectric films, but a complicated calibration procedure is necessary to obtain the real distribution. In addition, charge dynamic behaviour under an applied electric field cannot be observed by the classical thermal pulse method. In this work, an improved thermal pulse measuring system with a supplemental circuit for applying high voltage is proposed to realize the mapping of charge distribution in thin dielectric films under an applied field. The influence of the modified measuring system on the amplitude and phase of the thermal pulse response current are evaluated. Based on the new measuring system, an easy calibration approach is presented with some practical examples. The newly developed system can observe space charge evolution under an applied field, which would be very helpful in understanding space charge behaviour in thin films. (paper)

  14. Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Daijun; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc; Tielbörger, Katja; Slowik, Fabian; Yang, Xiaohong; Bilton, Mark C

    2018-03-01

    Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. Discontinuous pore fluid distribution under microgravity--KC-135 flight investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddi, Lakshmi N.; Xiao, Ming; Steinberg, Susan L.

    2005-01-01

    Designing a reliable plant growth system for crop production in space requires the understanding of pore fluid distribution in porous media under microgravity. The objective of this experimental investigation, which was conducted aboard NASA KC-135 reduced gravity flight, is to study possible particle separation and the distribution of discontinuous wetting fluid in porous media under microgravity. KC-135 aircraft provided gravity conditions of 1, 1.8, and 10(-2) g. Glass beads of a known size distribution were used as porous media; and Hexadecane, a petroleum compound immiscible with and lighter than water, was used as wetting fluid at residual saturation. Nitrogen freezer was used to solidify the discontinuous Hexadecane ganglia in glass beads to preserve the ganglia size changes during different gravity conditions, so that the blob-size distributions (BSDs) could be measured after flight. It was concluded from this study that microgravity has little effect on the size distribution of pore fluid blobs corresponding to residual saturation of wetting fluids in porous media. The blobs showed no noticeable breakup or coalescence during microgravity. However, based on the increase in bulk volume of samples due to particle separation under microgravity, groups of particles, within which pore fluid blobs were encapsulated, appeared to have rearranged themselves under microgravity.

  16. Spatial distribution of water supply reliability and critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers under an earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yu; Au, S.-K.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a process to characterize spatial distribution of water supply reliability among various consumers in a water system and proposes methods to identify critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers under an earthquake. Probabilistic performance of water supply is reflected by the probability of satisfying consumers' water demand, Damage Consequence Index (DCI) and Upgrade Benefit Index (UBI). The process is illustrated using a hypothetical water supply system, where direct Monte Carlo simulation is used for estimating the performance indices. The reliability of water supply to consumers varies spatially, depending on their respective locations in the system and system configuration. The UBI is adopted as a primary index in the identification of critical links for crucial water consumers. A pipe with a relatively large damage probability is likely to have a relatively large UBI, and hence, to be a critical link. The concept of efficient frontier is employed to identify critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers. It is found that a group of links that have the largest UBI individually do not necessarily have the largest group UBI, or be the group of critical links

  17. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  18. The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Gini

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.

  19. A novel stress distribution analytical model of O-ring seals under different properties of materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Di; Wang, Shao Ping; Wang, Xing Jian [School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing (China)

    2017-01-15

    The elastomeric O-ring seals have been widely used as sealing elements in hydraulic systems. The sealing performance of O-ring seals is related to stress distribution. The stresses distribution depends on the squeeze rate and internal pressure, and would vary with properties of O-ring seals materials. Thus, in order to study the sealing performance of O-ring seals, it is necessary to describe the analytic relationship between stress distribution and properties of O-ring seals materials. For this purpose, a novel Stress distribution analytical model (SDAM) is proposed in this paper. The analytical model utilizes two stress complex functions to describe the stress distribution of O-ring seals. The proposed SDAM can express not only the analytical relationship between stress distribution and Young’s modulus, but also the one between stress distribution and Poisson’s ratio. Finally, compared results between finite element analysis and the SDAM validate that the proposed model can effectively reveal the stress distribution under different properties for O-ring materials.

  20. Taxation of Social Security benefits under the new income tax provisions: distributional estimates for 1994.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattison, D

    1994-01-01

    The 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act raised the proportion of benefits includable in income for the Federal personal income tax. This article presents estimates of the income-distributional effects of the new provision in 1994, the first year for which it is effective. Under the pre-1993 law, up to 50 percent of benefits were included in taxable income for certain high-income beneficiaries. Under the new law, some of these beneficiaries are required to include an even higher proportion of benefits--up to 85 percent. Only 11 percent of beneficiary families, concentrated in the top three deciles by family income, include more of their benefits in taxable income under the new law than they would have under the old law. Another 8 percent include the same amount of benefits under either. The remaining beneficiary families, more than 80 percent, include no benefits in taxable income under either the old law or the new.

  1. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...... discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...

  2. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  3. Probability for physicists

    CERN Document Server

    Sirca, Simon

    2016-01-01

    This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.

  4. Robustness of trait distribution metrics for community assembly studies under the uncertainties of assembly processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiba, Masahiro; Katabuchi, Masatoshi; Takafumi, Hino; Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro S; Sasaki, Takehiro; Hiura, Tsutom

    2013-12-01

    Numerous studies have revealed the existence of nonrandom trait distribution patterns as a sign of environmental filtering and/or biotic interactions in a community assembly process. A number of metrics with various algorithms have been used to detect these patterns without any clear guidelines. Although some studies have compared their statistical powers, the differences in performance among the metrics under the conditions close to actual studies are not clear. Therefore, the performances of five metrics of convergence and 16 metrics of divergence under alternative conditions were comparatively analyzed using a suite of simulated communities. We focused particularly on the robustness of the performances to conditions that are often uncertain and uncontrollable in actual studies; e.g., atypical trait distribution patterns stemming from the operation of multiple assembly mechanisms, a scaling of trait-function relationships, and a sufficiency of analyzed traits. Most tested metrics, for either convergence or divergence, had sufficient statistical power to distinguish nonrandom trait distribution patterns without uncertainty. However, the performances of the metrics were considerably influenced by both atypical trait distribution patterns and other uncertainties. Influences from these uncertainties varied among the metrics of different algorithms and their performances were often complementary. Therefore, under the uncertainties of an assembly process, the selection of appropriate metrics and the combined use of complementary metrics are critically important to reliably distinguish nonrandom patterns in a trait distribution. We provide a tentative list of recommended metrics for future studies.

  5. Monitoring of biofilm formation and activity in drinking water distribution networks under oligotrophic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boe-Hansen, Rasmus; Martiny, Adam Camillo; Arvin, Erik

    2003-01-01

    In this study, the construction a model distribution system suitable for studies of attached and suspended microbial activity in drinking water under controlled circumstances is outlined. The model system consisted of two loops connected in series with a total of 140 biofilm sampling points...

  6. Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

  7. Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

    2013-01-01

    Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

  8. Testing the robustness of two water distribution system layouts under changing drinking water demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agudelo-Vera, Claudia; Blokker, M; Vreeburg, J; Vogelaar, H.; Hillegers, S; van der Hoek, J.P.

    2016-01-01

    A drinking water distribution system (DWDS) is a critical and a costly asset with a long lifetime. Drinking water demand is likely to change in the coming decades. Quantifying these changes involves large uncertainties. This paper proposes a stress test on the robustness of existing DWDS under

  9. Void fraction distribution in a heated rod bundle under flow stagnation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrero, V.A.; Guido-Lavalle, G.; Clausse, A. [Centro Atomico Bariloche and Instituto Balseiro, Bariloche (Argentina)

    1995-09-01

    An experimental study was performed to determine the axial void fraction distribution along a heated rod bundle under flow stagnation conditions. The development of the flow pattern was investigated for different heat flow rates. It was found that in general the void fraction is overestimated by the Zuber & Findlay model while the Chexal-Lellouche correlation produces a better prediction.

  10. MHC allele frequency distributions under parasite-driven selection: A simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radwan Jacek

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The extreme polymorphism that is observed in major histocompatibility complex (MHC genes, which code for proteins involved in recognition of non-self oligopeptides, is thought to result from a pressure exerted by parasites because parasite antigens are more likely to be recognized by MHC heterozygotes (heterozygote advantage and/or by rare MHC alleles (negative frequency-dependent selection. The Ewens-Watterson test (EW is often used to detect selection acting on MHC genes over the recent history of a population. EW is based on the expectation that allele frequencies under balancing selection should be more even than under neutrality. We used computer simulations to investigate whether this expectation holds for selection exerted by parasites on host MHC genes under conditions of heterozygote advantage and negative frequency-dependent selection acting either simultaneously or separately. Results In agreement with simple models of symmetrical overdominance, we found that heterozygote advantage acting alone in populations does, indeed, result in more even allele frequency distributions than expected under neutrality, and this is easily detectable by EW. However, under negative frequency-dependent selection, or under the joint action of negative frequency-dependent selection and heterozygote advantage, distributions of allele frequencies were less predictable: the majority of distributions were indistinguishable from neutral expectations, while the remaining runs resulted in either more even or more skewed distributions than under neutrality. Conclusions Our results indicate that, as long as negative frequency-dependent selection is an important force maintaining MHC variation, the EW test has limited utility in detecting selection acting on these genes.

  11. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE SHAPE PARAMETER OF THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER DIFFERENT LOSS FUNCTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANKU DEY

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The generalized exponential (GE distribution proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999 is an important lifetime distribution in survival analysis. In this article, we propose to obtain Bayes estimators and its associated risk based on a class of  non-informative prior under the assumption of three loss functions, namely, quadratic loss function (QLF, squared log-error loss function (SLELF and general entropy loss function (GELF. The motivation is to explore the most appropriate loss function among these three loss functions. The performances of the estimators are, therefore, compared on the basis of their risks obtained under QLF, SLELF and GELF separately. The relative efficiency of the estimators is also obtained. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the Bayes estimates under different situations.

  12. The flow distribution in the parallel tubes of the cavity receiver under variable heat flux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Yun; Wang, Yueshe; Hu, Tian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An experimental loop is built to find the flow distribution in the parallel tubes. • With the concentration of heat flux, two-phase flow makes distribution more uneven. • The total flow rate is chosen appropriately for a wider heat flux distribution. • A suitable system pressure is essential for the optimization of flow distribution. - Abstract: As an optical component of tower solar thermal power station, the heliostat mirror reflects sunlight to one point of the heated surface in the solar cavity receiver, called as one-point focusing system. The radiation heat flux concentrated in the cavity receiver is always non-uniform temporally and spatially, which may lead to extremely local over-heat on the receiver evaporation panels. In this paper, an electrical heated evaporating experimental loop, including five parallel vertical tubes, is set up to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of evaporation panels in a solar cavity receiver under various non-uniform heat flux. The influence of the heat flux concentration ratio, total flow rate, and system pressure on the flow distribution of parallel tubes is discussed. It is found that the flow distribution becomes significantly worse with the increase of heat flux and concentration ratio; and as the system pressure decreased, the flow distribution is improved. It is extremely important to obtain these interesting findings for the safe and stable operation of solar cavity receiver, and can also provide valuable references for the design and optimization of operating parameters solar tower power station system.

  13. Multiple decomposability of probabilities on contractible locally ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1970) (Berlin-Heidelberg-New. York: Springer). [10] Heyer H, Probability Measures on Locally Compact Groups (1977) (Berlin-Heidelberg-. New York: Springer). [11] Jurek Z and Mason D, Operator Limit Distributions in Probability Theory (1993).

  14. Evaluation of Failure Probability of BWR Vessel Under Cool-down and LTOP Transient Conditions Using PROFAS-RV PFM Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jong-Min; Lee, Bong-Sang [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The round robin project was proposed by the PFM Research Subcommittee of the Japan Welding Engineering Society to Asian Society for Integrity of Nuclear Components (ASINCO) members, which is designated in Korea as Phase 2 of A-Pro2. The objective of this phase 2 of RR analysis is to compare the scheme and results related to the assessment of structural integrity of RPV for the events important to safety in the design consideration but relatively low fracture probability. In this study, probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis was performed for the round robin cases using PROFAS-RV code. The effects of key parameters such as different transient, fluence level, Cu and Ni content, initial RT{sub NDT} and RT{sub NDT} shift model on the failure probability were systematically compared and reviewed. These efforts can minimize the uncertainty of the integrity evaluation for the reactor pressure vessel.

  15. Identification of probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitányi, Paul M B; Chater, Nick

    2017-02-01

    Within psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, there has been increasing interest in the proposal that the brain builds probabilistic models of sensory and linguistic input: that is, to infer a probabilistic model from a sample. The practical problems of such inference are substantial: the brain has limited data and restricted computational resources. But there is a more fundamental question: is the problem of inferring a probabilistic model from a sample possible even in principle? We explore this question and find some surprisingly positive and general results. First, for a broad class of probability distributions characterized by computability restrictions, we specify a learning algorithm that will almost surely identify a probability distribution in the limit given a finite i.i.d. sample of sufficient but unknown length. This is similarly shown to hold for sequences generated by a broad class of Markov chains, subject to computability assumptions. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. Second, for a large class of dependent sequences, we specify an algorithm which identifies in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical, in the sense of Martin-Löf (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We analyze the associated predictions in both cases. We also briefly consider special cases, including language learning, and wider theoretical implications for psychology.

  16. Comprehensive evaluation of power grid enterprises' credit rating under the reform of transmission and distribution price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongli; Wang, Gang; Zuo, Yi; Fan, Lisha; Wei, Jiaxiang

    2017-03-01

    On March 15, 2015, the central office issued the "Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Electric Power System" (in the 2015 No. 9). This policy marks the central government officially opened a new round of electricity reform. As a programmatic document under the new situation to comprehensively promote the reform of the power system, No. 9 document will be approved as a separate transmission and distribution of electricity prices, which is the first task of promoting the reform of the power system. Grid tariff reform is not only the transmission and distribution price of a separate approval, more of the grid company input-output relationship and many other aspects of deep-level adjustments. Under the background of the reform of the transmission and distribution price, the main factors affecting the input-output relationship, such as the main business, electricity pricing, and investment approval, financial accounting and so on, have changed significantly. The paper designed the comprehensive evaluation index system of power grid enterprises' credit rating under the reform of transmission and distribution price to reduce the impact of the reform on the company's international rating results and the ability to raise funds.

  17. Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicates (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuezhen; Jiang, Chao; Chen, Linghong; Qiu, Shuang; Zhao, Yuxiang; Wang, Tao; Zong, Shixiang

    2017-04-19

    Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China's Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981-2010) and projected climate conditions (2011-2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Under both current and future climate conditions, the model predicted E. fornicates to be mainly distributed in the south of China. Comparing distributions under both climate conditions showed that the area of potential distribution was projected to increase (mainly because of an increase in favourable habitat) and shift to the north. Our results help clarify the potential effect of climate change on the range of this forest pest and provide a reference and guide to facilitate its control in China.

  18. Permeability Evolution and Particle Size Distribution of Saturated Crushed Sandstone under Compression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlong Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the particle size distribution and permeability of saturated crushed sandstone under variable axial stresses (0, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 16 MPa were studied. X-ray Computed Tomography results revealed that particle crushing is likely to occur considerably as the axial stress is approaching 4 MPa, which results in the change of pore structure greatly. During compression, the particle size distribution satisfies the fractal condition well, and the fractal dimension of particle size distribution is an effective method for describing the particle crushing state of saturated crushed sandstone. When the axial stress increases from 0 MPa to 4 MPa, the fractal dimension of the particle size distribution increases rapidly by over 60% of the total increase (0–16 MPa, and the permeability decreases sharply by about 85% of the total decrease. These results indicate that 4 MPa is a key value in controlling the particle size distribution and the permeability of the saturated crushed sandstone under axial compression. The permeability is influenced by the initial gradation of the specimens, and a larger Talbot exponent corresponds to a larger permeability.

  19. Global potential distribution of an invasive species, the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua

    2008-09-01

    Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models. © 2008 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  20. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Hirata

    Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  1. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

    2017-01-01

    Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  2. Distributed detection in UWB sensor networks under non-orthogonal Nakagami-m fading

    KAUST Repository

    Mehbodniya, Abolfazl

    2011-09-01

    Several attractive features of ultra wideband (UWB) communications make it a good candidate for physical-layer of wireless sensor networks (WSN). These features include low power consumption, low complexity and low cost of implementation. In this paper, we present an opportunistic power assignment strategy for distributed detection in parallel fusion WSNs, considering a Nakagami-m fading model for the communication channel and time-hopping (TH) UWB for the transmitter circuit of the sensor nodes. In a parallel fusion WSN, local decisions are made by local sensors and transmitted through wireless channels to a fusion center. The fusion center processes the information and makes the final decision. Simulation results are provided for the global probability of detection error and relative performance gain to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed power assignment strategy in different fading environments. © 2011 IEEE.

  3. Robust D-optimal designs under correlated error, applicable invariantly for some lifetime distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Rabindra Nath; Kim, Jinseog; Park, Jeong-Soo

    2015-01-01

    In quality engineering, the most commonly used lifetime distributions are log-normal, exponential, gamma and Weibull. Experimental designs are useful for predicting the optimal operating conditions of the process in lifetime improvement experiments. In the present article, invariant robust first-order D-optimal designs are derived for correlated lifetime responses having the above four distributions. Robust designs are developed for some correlated error structures. It is shown that robust first-order D-optimal designs for these lifetime distributions are always robust rotatable but the converse is not true. Moreover, it is observed that these designs depend on the respective error covariance structure but are invariant to the above four lifetime distributions. This article generalizes the results of Das and Lin [7] for the above four lifetime distributions with general (intra-class, inter-class, compound symmetry, and tri-diagonal) correlated error structures. - Highlights: • This paper presents invariant robust first-order D-optimal designs under correlated lifetime responses. • The results of Das and Lin [7] are extended for the four lifetime (log-normal, exponential, gamma and Weibull) distributions. • This paper also generalizes the results of Das and Lin [7] to more general correlated error structures

  4. Effect of Overhead Ground Wire Installing under Distribution Lines on Surge Arrester Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Hitoshi

    Distribution surge arresters are often damaged by lightning strokes, in particular, winter lightning. An overhead ground wire (OGW) is one of effective measures against surge arrester failures. However, adding the conventional OGW to existing overhead power distribution lines needs the power interruption for construction as well as high costs because of installing them above phase conductors. Experimental results show that a covered conductor for distribution lines is more difficult to attract lightning than a bare conductor. Moreover, lightning strokes to distribution pole heads occupied over 90% of all lightning strokes in the observation result of lightning strokes to actual distribution lines without the conventional OGW, and lightning strokes to power lines were hardly observed. These results indicate that the pole heads shield the power lines from direct lightning strokes. Therefore the author studies the application of an OGW under the distribution lines (UGW) for reducing surge arrester failures. The lightning performance of the UGW is estimated by the Electro-Magnetic Transients Program (EMTP) and its effectiveness is demonstrated. The measure is expected to cut costs of construction and maintenance for lightning protection.

  5. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  6. Stress distribution in 450 Y-type fitting under internal pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aono, Muneshige; Itoh, Kenji; Kikuchi, Masatoshi; Iezawa, Tohru.

    1983-01-01

    The stress distribution in 45 0 Y-type fitting under internal pressure was obtained by strain gauge method and FEM. The results of the stress distribution on the outer surface obtained by the both methods are in good agreement. From the FEM analysis, the stress concentration zones of this fitting are situated on the outer surface of the side of this fitting where mother and branch pipes cross and the inner surface of the both crotches of the fitting, and there a large amount of tensile stresses are generated. However, the maximum principal stress value occuring under the designed internal pressure is approximately 2.9 kgf/mm 2 and allowable stress of this material (SUS 304) is 1.28 kgf/mm 2 , and therefore it is found that the safety factor of this fitting is above 4. (author)

  7. Variable content and distribution of arabinogalactan proteins in banana (Musa spp.) under low temperature stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yonglian; Takáč, Tomáš; Li, Xiaoquan; Chen, Houbin; Wang, Yingying; Xu, Enfeng; Xie, Ling; Su, Zhaohua; Šamaj, Jozef; Xu, Chunxiang

    2015-01-01

    Information on the spatial distribution of arabinogalactan proteins (AGPs) in plant organs and tissues during plant reactions to low temperature (LT) is limited. In this study, the extracellular distribution of AGPs in banana leaves and roots, and their changes under LT stress were investigated in two genotypes differing in chilling tolerance, by immuno-techniques using 17 monoclonal antibodies against different AGP epitopes. Changes in total classical AGPs in banana leaves were also tested. The results showed that AGP epitopes recognized by JIM4, JIM14, JIM16, and CCRC-M32 antibodies were primarily distributed in leaf veins, while those recognized by JIM8, JIM13, JIM15, and PN16.4B4 antibodies exhibited predominant sclerenchymal localization. Epitopes recognized by LM2, LM14, and MAC207 antibodies were distributed in both epidermal and mesophyll cells. Both genotypes accumulated classical AGPs in leaves under LT treatment, and the chilling tolerant genotype contained higher classical AGPs at each temperature treatment. The abundance of JIM4 and JIM16 epitopes in the chilling-sensitive genotype decreased slightly after LT treatment, and this trend was opposite for the tolerant one. LT induced accumulation of LM2- and LM14-immunoreactive AGPs in the tolerant genotype compared to the sensitive one, especially in phloem and mesophyll cells. These epitopes thus might play important roles in banana LT tolerance. Different AGP components also showed differential distribution patterns in banana roots. In general, banana roots started to accumulate AGPs under LT treatment earlier than leaves. The levels of AGPs recognized by MAC207 and JIM13 antibodies in the control roots of the tolerant genotype were higher than in the chilling sensitive one. Furthermore, the chilling tolerant genotype showed high immuno-reactivity against JIM13 antibody. These results indicate that several AGPs are likely involved in banana tolerance to chilling injury.

  8. [Selection of occlusal scheme on the basis of pressure distribution on supporting structures under complete dentures].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagao, Kan; Kawano, Fumiaki; Ichikawa, Tetsuo

    2004-12-01

    In case of making complete dentures, we have to consider not only denture stability but also the restoration of aesthetics and function such as mastication and speech. However these are contradictory theoretically from the point of view of denture stability, and it is very difficult to satisfy both requirements in the case of a patient who has poor upper and lower alveolar ridges. We investigated the effect of artificial posterior teeth form and occlusal scheme on the distribution of pressure on supporting structures under complete dentures during mastication with upper and lower edentulous simulators. In this report, a guideline for the selection of occlusal scheme for complete dentures, based on our previous investigations, is described. The occlusal scheme remarkably affected the distribution of pressure under simulated complete dentures, as shown by comparing the distribution of pressure using two different occlusal schemes:fully balanced occlusion and lingualized occlusion. However other factors such as posterior teeth form and position affect the distribution of pressure as well, and are related to each other. Therefore, not only occlusal scheme but also posterior artificial teeth form has to be considered, and the form of posterior teeth should be carefully and comprehensively decided when making complete dentures.

  9. The optimization of energy storage capacity for distribution networks with the consideration of probability correlation between wind farms based on PSO algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Li, Hongxia; Cao, Xueyuan; Zhu, Xiaojun; Gan, Zhongxue

    2017-04-01

    With the rapid development of the energy networks, various forms of renewable energy resources are absorbed into it. Because of the inherent random behaviour of the renewable resources, introducing them into the energy network will destroy the stability of the grids. It is required to use proper energy storages to reduce the uncertain fluctuation from the renewable energy resources. For a concrete model research, this paper presented an explicit method to give suitable capacities of the energy storages in consideration of the economics of the storage, grid losses and the probabilities of the bus voltages violation, for situations of the winds-power generations injected into the power network. Furthermore, the influence of the correlation between the different winds farms on the optimal storage capacity can also be studied by this method.

  10. Comparação de distribuições de probabilidade e estimativa da precipitação provável para região de Barbacena, MG Comparasion of probability distribution models and estimative of the probable rainfall for the Barbacena County, MG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Teixeira Ribeiro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Estudos probabilísticos envolvendo variáveis climáticas são de extrema importância para as atividades da agropecuária, construção civil, turismo, transporte, dentre outros. Visando contribuir para o planejamento da agricultura irrigada, este trabalho teve como objetivos comparar distribuições de probabilidade ajustadas às séries históricas decendiais e mensais, e estimar as precipitações prováveis para o município de Barbacena, MG. Foram estudados os meses de dezembro, janeiro e fevereiro, no período de 1942 a 2003, constituindo-se séries históricas com 62 anos de observações. As lâminas diárias foram totalizadas em períodos mensais e decendiais, sendo aplicadas as distribuições log-Normal 2 parâmetros, log-Normal 3 parâmetros e Gama. Para avaliar a adequabilidade das distribuições, nos períodos estudados, utilizou-se o teste de Qui-quadrado (chi2, ao nível de 5% de significância. As precipitações prováveis foram estimadas para cada período estudado utilizando a distribuição que apresentou o menor valor de chi2, nos níveis de probabilidade de excedência de 75, 90 e 98%. A distribuição Gama foi a que melhor se ajustou aos dados. O estudo de precipitações prováveis é uma boa ferramenta no auxílio da tomada de decisão quanto ao planejamento e uso da irrigação.Probabilistic studies involving climatic variables are of extreme importance for farming activities, construction, tourism, among others. Seeking to contribute for the planning of irrigate agriculture, this work had as objectives to compare adjusted probability distribution models to the monthly and decennial historical series and to estimate the probable rainfall for the Barbacena County, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Rainfall data of December, January and February, from 1942 to 2003, were studied, constituting historical series with 62 years of observations. Daily rainfall depths were added for 10 and 30 days, applying Gama, log-Normal 2 and

  11. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  12. Maximum entropy principle and partial probability weighted moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jian; Pandey, M. D.; Xie, W. C.

    2012-05-01

    Maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) is usually used for estimating the probability density function under specified moment constraints. The density function is then integrated to obtain the cumulative distribution function, which needs to be inverted to obtain a quantile corresponding to some specified probability. In such analysis, consideration of higher ordermoments is important for accurate modelling of the distribution tail. There are three drawbacks for this conventional methodology: (1) Estimates of higher order (>2) moments from a small sample of data tend to be highly biased; (2) It can merely cope with problems with complete or noncensored samples; (3) Only probability weighted moments of integer orders have been utilized. These difficulties inevitably induce bias and inaccuracy of the resultant quantile estimates and therefore have been the main impediments to the application of the MaxEnt Principle in extreme quantile estimation. This paper attempts to overcome these problems and presents a distribution free method for estimating the quantile function of a non-negative randomvariable using the principle of maximum partial entropy subject to constraints of the partial probability weighted moments estimated from censored sample. The main contributions include: (1) New concepts, i.e., partial entropy, fractional partial probability weighted moments, and partial Kullback-Leibler measure are elegantly defined; (2) Maximum entropy principle is re-formulated to be constrained by fractional partial probability weighted moments; (3) New distribution free quantile functions are derived. Numerical analyses are performed to assess the accuracy of extreme value estimates computed from censored samples.

  13. PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USING MODIS DATASET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hirayama

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan’s cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC,warmth index (WI, winter precipitation (PRW and summer precipitation (PRS: and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO, surface geology (GEOL, soil (SOIL, slope aspect (ASP, and inclination (INCL; were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

  14. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  15. Voltage Distribution and Flashover Performance of 220 kV Composite Insulators under Different Icing Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiazheng Lu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Composite insulators are widely used in modern power systems to provide electrical insulation and mechanical support for transmission lines and substations. However, the insulation strength will decrease greatly under the combined conditions of ice-covering and contamination, and icing flashovers may take place under these serious conditions. In this paper, AC flashover tests of different artificially ice-covered 220 kV composite insulators were carried out in a multi-function artificial climate chamber under energized ice accumulation conditions. The test results indicate that, with the increasing of ice thickness, the flashover voltages decrease and tend to saturation. The icing flashover voltages can be increased by adding booster sheds, but excessive booster sheds can lead to lower flashover voltages under heavy icing conditions. The voltage distributions of the iced insulators were measured using experimental methods. The results show that, the air gaps withstand most of the applied voltage. The zinc oxide (ZnO resistors that are contained in the insulators can influence the voltage distributions of the iced insulators, but have little affect on the icing flashover voltages. The work done in this paper can provide reference for the design and type selection of outdoor composite insulators in cold climate regions.

  16. Studies on the temperature distribution of steel plates with different paints under solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hongbo; Chen, Zhihua; Chen, Binbin; Xiao, Xiao; Wang, Xiaodun

    2014-01-01

    Thermal effects on steel structures exposed to solar radiation are significant and complicated. Furthermore, the solar radiation absorption coefficient of steel surface with different paintings is the main factor affecting the non-uniform temperature of spatial structures under solar radiation. In this paper, nearly two hundreds steel specimens with different paintings were designed and measured to obtain their solar radiation absorption coefficients using spectrophotometer. Based on the test results, the effect of surface color, painting type, painting thickness on the solar radiation absorption coefficient was analyzed. The actual temperatures under solar radiation for all specimens were also measured in summer not only to verify the absorption coefficient but also provide insight for the temperature distribution of steel structures with different paintings. A numerical simulation and simplified formula were also conducted and verified by test, in order to study the temperature distribution of steel plates with different paints under solar radiation. The results have given an important reference in the future research of thermal effect of steel structures exposed to solar radiation. - Highlights: • Solar radiation absorptions for steel with different paintings were measured. • The temperatures of all specimens under solar radiation were measured. • The effect of color, thickness and painting type on solar absorption was analyzed. • A numerical analysis was conducted and verified by test data. • A simplified formula was deduced and verified by test data

  17. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlong Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

  18. Study of Stand-Alone Microgrid under Condition of Faults on Distribution Line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malla, S. G.; Bhende, C. N.

    2014-10-01

    The behavior of stand-alone microgrid is analyzed under the condition of faults on distribution feeders. During fault since battery is not able to maintain dc-link voltage within limit, the resistive dump load control is presented to do so. An inverter control is proposed to maintain balanced voltages at PCC under the unbalanced load condition and to reduce voltage unbalance factor (VUF) at load points. The proposed inverter control also has facility to protect itself from high fault current. Existing maximum power point tracker (MPPT) algorithm is modified to limit the speed of generator during fault. Extensive simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK established that the performance of the controllers is quite satisfactory under different fault conditions as well as unbalanced load conditions.

  19. Invariability of Central Metabolic Flux Distribution in Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 Under Environmental or Genetic Perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Yinjie; Martin, Hector Garcia; Deutschbauer, Adam; Feng, Xueyang; Huang, Rick; Llora, Xavier; Arkin, Adam; Keasling, Jay D.

    2009-04-21

    An environmentally important bacterium with versatile respiration, Shewanella oneidensis MR-1, displayed significantly different growth rates under three culture conditions: minimal medium (doubling time {approx} 3 hrs), salt stressed minimal medium (doubling time {approx} 6 hrs), and minimal medium with amino acid supplementation (doubling time {approx}1.5 hrs). {sup 13}C-based metabolic flux analysis indicated that fluxes of central metabolic reactions remained relatively constant under the three growth conditions, which is in stark contrast to the reported significant changes in the transcript and metabolite profiles under various growth conditions. Furthermore, ten transposon mutants of S. oneidensis MR-1 were randomly chosen from a transposon library and their flux distributions through central metabolic pathways were revealed to be identical, even though such mutational processes altered the secondary metabolism, for example, glycine and C1 (5,10-Me-THF) metabolism.

  20. Under-Frequency Load Shedding Technique Considering Event-Based for an Islanded Distribution Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasmaini Mohamad

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the biggest challenge for an islanding operation is to sustain the frequency stability. A large power imbalance following islanding would cause under-frequency, hence an appropriate control is required to shed certain amount of load. The main objective of this research is to develop an adaptive under-frequency load shedding (UFLS technique for an islanding system. The technique is designed considering an event-based which includes the moment system is islanded and a tripping of any DG unit during islanding operation. A disturbance magnitude is calculated to determine the amount of load to be shed. The technique is modeled by using PSCAD simulation tool. A simulation studies on a distribution network with mini hydro generation is carried out to evaluate the UFLS model. It is performed under different load condition: peak and base load. Results show that the load shedding technique have successfully shed certain amount of load and stabilized the system frequency.

  1. Fission-fragment mass distribution and estimation of the cluster emission probability in the γ + 232Th and 181Ta reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karamyan, S.A.; Adam, J.; Belov, A.G.; Chaloun, P.; Norseev, Yu.V.; Stegajlov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    Fission-fragment mass distribution has been measured by the cumulative yields of radionuclides detected in the 232 Th(γ,f)-reaction at the Bremsstrahlung endpoint energies of 12 and 24 MeV. The yield upper limits have been estimated for the light nuclei 24 Na, 28 Mg, 38 S etc. at the Th and Ta targets exposure to the 24 MeV Bremsstrahlung. The results are discussed in terms of the multimodal fission phenomena and cluster emission >from a deformed fissioning system or from a compound nucleus

  2. Spatio-temporal distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change in the southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been recognized as the most important widespread vector-borne infectious disease in recent decades. Over 40% of the world's population is risk from dengue and about 50-100 million people are infected world wide annually. Previous studies have found that dengue fever is highly correlated with climate covariates. Thus, the potential effects of global climate change on dengue fever are crucial to epidemic concern, in particular, the transmission of the disease. This present study investigated the nonlinearity of time-delayed impact of climate on spatio-temporal variations of dengue fever in the southern Taiwan during 1998 to 2011. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) is used to assess the nonlinear lagged effects of meteorology. The statistically significant meteorological factors are considered, including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall. The relative risk and the distribution of dengue fever then predict under various climate change scenarios. The result shows that the relative risk is similar for different scenarios. In addition, the impact of rainfall on the incidence risk is higher than temperature. Moreover, the incidence risk is associated to spatially population distribution. The results can be served as practical reference for environmental regulators for the epidemic prevention under climate change scenarios.

  3. Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Distribution functions of a simple fluid under shear: Low shear rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalyuzhnyi, Y.V.; Cui, S.T.; Cummings, P.T.; Cochran, H.D.

    1999-01-01

    Anisotropic pair distribution functions for a simple, soft sphere fluid at moderate and high density under shear have been calculated by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics, by equilibrium molecular dynamics with a nonequilibrium potential, and by a nonequilibrium distribution function theory [H. H. Gan and B. C. Eu, Phys. Rev. A 45, 3670 (1992)] and some variants. The nonequilibrium distribution function theory consists of a nonequilibrium Ornstein-Zernike relation, a closure relation, and a nonequilibrium potential and is solved in spherical harmonics. The distortion of the fluid structure due to shear is presented as the difference between the nonequilibrium and equilibrium pair distribution functions. From comparison of the results of theory against results of equilibrium molecular dynamics with the nonequilibrium potential at low shear rates, it is concluded that, for a given nonequilibrium potential, the theory is reasonably accurate, especially with the modified hypernetted chain closure. The equilibrium molecular-dynamics results with the nonequilibrium potential are also compared against the results of nonequilibrium molecular dynamics and suggest that the nonequilibrium potential used is not very accurate. In continuing work, a nonequilibrium potential better suited to high shear rates [H. H. Gan and B. C. Eu, Phys. Rev. A 46, 6344 (1992)] is being tested. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society

  5. 21 CFR 1310.10 - Removal of the exemption of drugs distributed under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. 1310.10 Section 1310.10 Food and Drugs DRUG ENFORCEMENT... Removal of the exemption of drugs distributed under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. (a) The Administrator... manner of packaging of the drug product; (2) The manner of distribution and advertising of the drug...

  6. 21 CFR 1310.11 - Reinstatement of exemption for drug products distributed under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reinstatement of exemption for drug products distributed under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. 1310.11 Section 1310.11 Food and Drugs DRUG ENFORCEMENT... Reinstatement of exemption for drug products distributed under the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. (a) The...

  7. Logic with a Probability Semantics

    CERN Document Server

    Hailperin, Theodore

    2010-01-01

    The present study is an extension of the topic introduced in Dr. Hailperin's Sentential Probability Logic, where the usual true-false semantics for logic is replaced with one based more on probability, and where values ranging from 0 to 1 are subject to probability axioms. Moreover, as the word "sentential" in the title of that work indicates, the language there under consideration was limited to sentences constructed from atomic (not inner logical components) sentences, by use of sentential connectives ("no," "and," "or," etc.) but not including quantifiers ("for all," "there is"). An initial

  8. Using historical vital statistics to predict the distribution of under-five mortality by cause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Chalapati; Adair, Timothy; Kinfu, Yohannes

    2011-06-01

    -composition arising from the range of under-five mortality rates and related mortality ratios. Historical analyses suggest that under-five mortality transitions are associated with significant changes in cause of death composition. Sub-national differentials in under-five mortality rates could require intervention programs targeted to address specific cause distributions. The predictive model could, therefore, help set broad priorities for interventions at the local level based on periodic under-five mortality measurement. Given current resource constraints, such priority setting mechanisms are essential to accelerate reductions in under-five mortality.

  9. How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Sinclair

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species' distributions under future climates to inform management strategies. As government scientists with a responsibility to communicate the best available science to our policy colleagues, we question whether current modeling approaches and outputs are practically useful. Here, we synthesize conceptual problems with species distribution models (SDMs associated with interspecific interactions, dispersal, ecological equilibria and time lags, evolution, and the sampling of niche space. Although projected SDMs have undoubtedly been critical in alerting us to the magnitude of climate change impacts, we conclude that until they offer insights that are more precise than what we can derive from basic ecological theory, we question their utility in deciding how to allocate scarce funds to large-scale conservation projects.

  10. Identifiability of models for time-resolved fluorescence with underlying distributions of rate constants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boens, Noël; Van der Auweraer, Mark

    2014-02-01

    The deterministic identifiability analysis of photophysical models for the kinetics of excited-state processes, assuming errorless time-resolved fluorescence data, can verify whether the model parameters can be determined unambiguously. In this work, we have investigated the identifiability of several uncommon models for time-resolved fluorescence with underlying distributions of rate constants which lead to non-exponential decays. The mathematical functions used here for the description of non-exponential fluorescence decays are the stretched exponential or Kohlrausch function, the Becquerel function, the Förster type energy transfer function, decay functions associated with exponential, Gaussian and uniform distributions of rate constants, a decay function with extreme sub-exponential behavior, the Mittag-Leffler function and Heaviside's function. It is shown that all the models are uniquely identifiable, which means that for each specific model there exists a single parameter set that describes its associated fluorescence δ-response function.

  11. Distributed Consensus of Stochastic Delayed Multi-agent Systems Under Asynchronous Switching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaotai; Tang, Yang; Cao, Jinde; Zhang, Wenbing

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, the distributed exponential consensus of stochastic delayed multi-agent systems with nonlinear dynamics is investigated under asynchronous switching. The asynchronous switching considered here is to account for the time of identifying the active modes of multi-agent systems. After receipt of confirmation of mode's switching, the matched controller can be applied, which means that the switching time of the matched controller in each node usually lags behind that of system switching. In order to handle the coexistence of switched signals and stochastic disturbances, a comparison principle of stochastic switched delayed systems is first proved. By means of this extended comparison principle, several easy to verified conditions for the existence of an asynchronously switched distributed controller are derived such that stochastic delayed multi-agent systems with asynchronous switching and nonlinear dynamics can achieve global exponential consensus. Two examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  12. Effects of Home Energy Management Systems on Distribution Utilities and Feeders Under Various Market Structures: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, Mark; Pratt, Annabelle; Lunacek, Monte; Mittal, Saurabh; Wu, Hongyu; Jones, Wesley

    2015-07-17

    The combination of distributed energy resources (DER) and retail tariff structures to provide benefits to both utility consumers and the utilities is poorly understood. To improve understanding, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed to simulate the physical and economic aspects of DER technologies, the buildings where they reside, and feeders servicing them. The IESM was used to simulate 20 houses with home energy management systems on a single feeder under a time of use tariff to estimate economic and physical impacts on both the households and the distribution utilities. HEMS reduce consumers’ electric bills by precooling houses in the hours before peak electricity pricing. Household savings are greater than the reduction utility net revenue indicating that HEMS can provide a societal benefit providing tariffs are structured so that utilities remain solvent. Utilization of HEMS reduce peak loads during high price hours but shifts it to hours with off-peak and shoulder prices and resulting in a higher peak load.

  13. Effect of soft denture liner on stress distribution in supporting structures under a denture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, F; Koran, A; Asaoka, K; Matsumoto, N

    1993-01-01

    This study examined the effect of a soft denture liner on the distribution of stresses in the denture-supporting structures. Dentures without a linear and with three configurations of a soft liner were simulated by using a two-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element stress analysis. The stress intensity at functional force-bearing areas decreased when a soft denture liner was used. However, the stresses in the bone increased remarkably up to 3.0 seconds after loading. Because of the time-dependent effect of stresses applied to soft denture liners, denture patients who clench or brux may not benefit as greatly from soft denture liners. The study indicates that viscoelastic finite-element analysis is helpful for evaluating soft denture liners. Soft denture liners appear to be useful for improving the stress distribution in the supporting structures under dentures.

  14. Density and spatial distribution of Parkia biglobosa pattern in Benin under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fafunkè Titilayo Dotchamou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Parkia biglobosa is an indigenous species which, traditionally contributes to the resilience of the agricultural production system in terms of food security, source of income, poverty reduction and ecosystem stability. Therefore, it is important to improve knowledge on its density, current and future spatial distribution. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the tree density, the climate change effects on the spatial distribution of the species in the future for better conservation. The modeling of the current and future geographical distribution of the species is based on the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt on a total of 286 occurrence points from field work and Global Biodiversity Information Facility GBIF-Data Portal-(www.gbif.org. Two climatic models (HadGEM2_ES and Csiro_mk3_6_0 have been used under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the projection of the species distribution at the horizon 2050. The correlation analyses and Jackknife test have helped to identify seven variables which are less correlated (r < 0.80 with highest modeling participation. The soil, annual precipitation (BIO12 and temperature (diurnal average Deviation are the variables which have mostly contributed to performance of the models. Currently, 53% of national territory, spread from north to south is very suitable to the cultivation of P. biglobosa. The scenarios have predicted at the horizon 2050, a loss of the habitats which are currently very suitable for the cultivation and conservation of P. biglobosa, to the benefit of moderate and weak habitats. 51% and 57% are the highest proportion of this lost which will be registered with HadGEM2_ES model under two scenarios. These results revealed that the suitable habitat of the species is threatened by climate change in Benin. In order to limit damage such as decreased productivity, extinction of species, some appropriate solutions must be found.

  15. Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of

  16. Measurement Invariance, Entropy, and Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Eric Smith

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We show that the natural scaling of measurement for a particular problem defines the most likely probability distribution of observations taken from that measurement scale. Our approach extends the method of maximum entropy to use measurement scale as a type of information constraint. We argue that a very common measurement scale is linear at small magnitudes grading into logarithmic at large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow Student’s probability distribution which has a Gaussian shape for small fluctuations from the mean and a power law shape for large fluctuations from the mean. An inverse scaling often arises in which measures naturally grade from logarithmic to linear as one moves from small to large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow a gamma probability distribution. A gamma distribution has a power law shape for small magnitudes and an exponential shape for large magnitudes. The two measurement scales are natural inverses connected by the Laplace integral transform. This inversion connects the two major scaling patterns commonly found in nature. We also show that superstatistics is a special case of an integral transform, and thus can be understood as a particular way in which to change the scale of measurement. Incorporating information about measurement scale into maximum entropy provides a general approach to the relations between measurement, information and probability.

  17. Continuous-energy adjoint flux and perturbation calculation using the iterated fission probability method in Monte-Carlo code TRIPOLI-4 and underlying applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truchet, G.; Leconte, P.; Peneliau, Y.; Santamarina, A.

    2013-01-01

    The first goal of this paper is to present an exact method able to precisely evaluate very small reactivity effects with a Monte Carlo code (<10 pcm). it has been decided to implement the exact perturbation theory in TRIPOLI-4 and, consequently, to calculate a continuous-energy adjoint flux. The Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method was chosen because it has shown great results in some other Monte Carlo codes. The IFP method uses a forward calculation to compute the adjoint flux, and consequently, it does not rely on complex code modifications but on the physical definition of the adjoint flux as a phase-space neutron importance. In the first part of this paper, the IFP method implemented in TRIPOLI-4 is described. To illustrate the efficiency of the method, several adjoint fluxes are calculated and compared with their equivalent obtained by the deterministic code APOLLO-2. The new implementation can calculate angular adjoint flux. In the second part, a procedure to carry out an exact perturbation calculation is described. A single cell benchmark has been used to test the accuracy of the method, compared with the 'direct' estimation of the perturbation. Once again the method based on the IFP shows good agreement for a calculation time far more inferior to the 'direct' method. The main advantage of the method is that the relative accuracy of the reactivity variation does not depend on the magnitude of the variation itself, which allows us to calculate very small reactivity perturbations with high precision. It offers the possibility to split reactivity contributions on both isotopes and reactions. Other applications of this perturbation method are presented and tested like the calculation of exact kinetic parameters (βeff, Λeff) or sensitivity parameters

  18. Large deflection analysis of cantilever beam under end point and distributed load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Tolou, N; Barari, Amin

    2014-01-01

    distributed loads. Direct nonlinear solution by use of homotopy analysis method was implemented to drive the semi-exact solution of trajectory position of any point along the beam length. For the purpose of comparison, the deflections were calculated and compared to those of finite element method which...... requires numerical solution of simultaneous equations which is a significant drawback for optimization or reliability analysis. This paper is motivated to overcome these shortcomings by presenting an analytical solution for the large deflection analysis of a cantilever beam under free end point and uniform...

  19. Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicates (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Ge, Xuezhen; Jiang, Chao; Chen, Linghong; Qiu, Shuang; Zhao, Yuxiang; Wang, Tao; Zong, Shixiang

    2017-01-01

    Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China?s Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981?2010) and projected climate conditions (2011?2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Unde...

  20. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuezhen Ge

    Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  1. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

    2015-01-01

    As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  2. Measure, integral and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Capiński, Marek

    2004-01-01

    Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

  3. Rapidly assessing the probability of exceptionally high natural hazard losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollini, Isabella; Rougier, Jonathan

    2014-05-01

    One of the objectives in catastrophe modeling is to assess the probability distribution of losses for a specified period, such as a year. From the point of view of an insurance company, the whole of the loss distribution is interesting, and valuable in determining insurance premiums. But the shape of the righthand tail is critical, because it impinges on the solvency of the company. A simple measure of the risk of insolvency is the probability that the annual loss will exceed the company's current operating capital. Imposing an upper limit on this probability is one of the objectives of the EU Solvency II directive. If a probabilistic model is supplied for the loss process, then this tail probability can be computed, either directly, or by simulation. This can be a lengthy calculation for complex losses. Given the inevitably subjective nature of quantifying loss distributions, computational resources might be better used in a sensitivity analysis. This requires either a quick approximation to the tail probability or an upper bound on the probability, ideally a tight one. We present several different bounds, all of which can be computed nearly instantly from a very general event loss table. We provide a numerical illustration, and discuss the conditions under which the bound is tight. Although we consider the perspective of insurance and reinsurance companies, exactly the same issues concern the risk manager, who is typically very sensitive to large losses.

  4. Tight finite-key analysis for passive decoy-state quantum key distribution under general attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chun; Bao, Wan-Su; Li, Hong-Wei; Wang, Yang; Li, Yuan; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Han, Zheng-Fu

    2014-05-01

    For quantum key distribution (QKD) using spontaneous parametric-down-conversion sources (SPDCSs), the passive decoy-state protocol has been proved to be efficiently close to the theoretical limit of an infinite decoy-state protocol. In this paper, we apply a tight finite-key analysis for the passive decoy-state QKD using SPDCSs. Combining the security bound based on the uncertainty principle with the passive decoy-state protocol, a concise and stringent formula for calculating the key generation rate for QKD using SPDCSs is presented. The simulation shows that the secure distance under our formula can reach up to 182 km when the number of sifted data is 1010. Our results also indicate that, under the same deviation of statistical fluctuation due to finite-size effects, the passive decoy-state QKD with SPDCSs can perform as well as the active decoy-state QKD with a weak coherent source.

  5. Some consideration on the relevance of concepts based on the probability distribution of words reminded by stimulus terms concerning atomic energy and radiation utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urabe, Itsumasa

    2002-01-01

    The relevance of concepts brought to mind by stimulus terms concerning atomic energy and radiation utilization has been investigated to learn how people understand the present status of nuclear technology. The relevance of concepts was defined as the frequency distribution of words that came to mind immediately after seeing selected terms needed for present-day life as well as for nuclear engineering. An analysis of knowledge structure shows that a concept of atomic energy has a close relation with that of electric power generation; an understanding of nuclear power utilization may be promoted in relation to an understanding of energy and environmental problems because the concepts of energy, atomic energy, electric power generation, and natural environment have closer relations with one another; a concept of radiation has various relations with harmful radiological health effects, but little relation with industrial, agricultural, and other beneficial uses except of nuclear power generation or medical applications. It also became clear from the investigation that studies on natural radiation may be important to promote an understanding of radiation utilization because a concept of the natural environment does not yet relate to that of natural radiation. (author)

  6. Cerebral [18 F]T807/AV1451 retention pattern in clinically probable CTE resembles pathognomonic distribution of CTE tauopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickstein, D L; Pullman, M Y; Fernandez, C; Short, J A; Kostakoglu, L; Knesaurek, K; Soleimani, L; Jordan, B D; Gordon, W A; Dams-O'Connor, K; Delman, B N; Wong, E; Tang, C Y; DeKosky, S T; Stone, J R; Cantu, R C; Sano, M; Hof, P R; Gandy, S

    2016-09-27

    Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disorder most commonly associated with repetitive traumatic brain injury (TBI) and characterized by the presence of neurofibrillary tangles of tau protein, known as a tauopathy. Currently, the diagnosis of CTE can only be definitively established postmortem. However, a new positron emission tomography (PET) ligand, [ 18 F]T807/AV1451, may provide the antemortem detection of tau aggregates, and thus various tauopathies, including CTE. Our goal was to examine [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 retention in athletes with neuropsychiatric symptoms associated with a history of multiple concussions. Here we report a 39-year-old retired National Football League player who suffered 22 concussions and manifested progressive neuropsychiatric symptoms. Emotional lability and irritability were the chief complaints. Serial neuropsychological exams revealed a decline in executive functioning, processing speed and fine motor skills. Naming was below average but other cognitive functions were preserved. Structural analysis of longitudinally acquired magenetic resonance imaging scans revealed cortical thinning in the left frontal and lateral temporal areas, as well as volume loss in the basal ganglia. PET with [ 18 F]florbetapir was negative for amyloidosis. The [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 PET showed multifocal areas of retention at the cortical gray matter-white matter junction, a distribution considered pathognomonic for CTE. [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 standard uptake value (SUV) analysis showed increased uptake (SUVr⩾1.1) in bilateral cingulate, occipital, and orbitofrontal cortices, and several temporal areas. Although definitive identification of the neuropathological underpinnings basis for [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 retention requires postmortem correlation, our data suggest that [ 18 F]T807/AV1451 tauopathy imaging may be a promising tool to detect and diagnose CTE-related tauopathy in living subjects.

  7. Material processing of convection-driven flow field and temperature distribution under oblique gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, R. J.

    1995-01-01

    A set of mathematical formulation is adopted to study vapor deposition from source materials driven by heat transfer process under normal and oblique directions of gravitational acceleration with extremely low pressure environment of 10(exp -2) mm Hg. A series of time animation of the initiation and development of flow and temperature profiles during the course of vapor deposition has been obtained through the numerical computation. Computations show that the process of vapor deposition has been accomplished by the transfer of vapor through a fairly complicated flow pattern of recirculation under normal direction gravitational acceleration. It is obvious that there is no way to produce a homogeneous thin crystalline films with fine grains under such a complicated flow pattern of recirculation with a non-uniform temperature distribution under normal direction gravitational acceleration. There is no vapor deposition due to a stably stratified medium without convection for reverse normal direction gravitational acceleration. Vapor deposition under oblique direction gravitational acceleration introduces a reduced gravitational acceleration in vertical direction which is favorable to produce a homogeneous thin crystalline films. However, oblique direction gravitational acceleration also induces an unfavorable gravitational acceleration along horizontal direction which is responsible to initiate a complicated flow pattern of recirculation. In other words, it is necessary to carry out vapor deposition under a reduced gravity in the future space shuttle experiments with extremely low pressure environment to process vapor deposition with a homogeneous crystalline films with fine grains. Fluid mechanics simulation can be used as a tool to suggest most optimistic way of experiment with best setup to achieve the goal of processing best nonlinear optical materials.

  8. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  9. Evaluation of water distribution under pivot irrigation systems using remote sensing imagery in eastern Nile delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Farg

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for center pivot evaluation depend on the water depth distribution along the pivot arm. Estimation and mapping the water depth under pivot irrigation systems using remote sensing data is essential for calculating the coefficient of uniformity (CU of water distribution. This study focuses on estimating and mapping water depth using Landsat OLI 8 satellite data integrated with Heerman and Hein (1968 modified equation for center pivot evaluation. Landsat OLI 8 image was geometrically and radiometrically corrected to calculate the vegetation and water indices (NDVI and NDWI in addition to land surface temperature. Results of the statistical analysis showed that the collected water depth in catchment cans is also highly correlated negatively with NDVI. On the other hand water, depth was positively correlated with NDWI and LST. Multi-linear regression analysis using stepwise selection method was applied to estimate and map the water depth distribution. The results showed R2 and adjusted R2 0.93 and 0.88 respectively. Study area or field level verification was applied for estimation equation with correlation 0.93 between the collected water depth and estimated values.

  10. Distribution and possible function of lysosomal enzymes in the inner ear under normal and pathophysiological conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schätzle, W

    1976-05-31

    The normal distribution of several lysosomal enzymes was studied in 20 guinea pigs. In the outer hair cells lysosomal enzymes are mainly localized at the apical cell pole, while in inner hair cells the distribution was uniform. Nonlysosomal enzymes like alcaline phosphatase are of predominantly basal localization. The concentration of some lysosomal enzymes like N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase was higher in outer than in inner hair cells while others like acid phosphatase, beta-glucuronidase and sulfatase showed a stronger reaction in the inner hair cells. After 10 days of sound overstimulation with 120 dB for 1 h a day, there was an increase of lysosomal enzyme content namely in the outer hair cells. There was no change of non-lysosomal enzymes. Under these conditions there might be a partial destruction of cellular organelles eliminated by lysosomal activity without loss of a total cell. In addition the distribution and possible function of lysosomal enzymes in other labyrinthine tissues was discussed.

  11. Distribution of anisakid nematodes parasitizing rajiform skates under commercial exploitation in the Southwestern Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irigoitia, Manuel Marcial; Braicovich, Paola Elizabeth; Lanfranchi, Ana Laura; Farber, Marisa Diana; Timi, Juan Tomás

    2018-02-21

    In order to evaluate the infestation by anisakids present in elasmobranchs and their distribution in the Argentine Sea, this study was carried at a regional scale with the following aims: 1) to identify those anisakid species present in skates under exploitation; 2) to characterize quantitatively these infestations and 3) to determine those factors driving the variability in parasite burdens across skate species. A total of 351 skates, belonging to 3 species (218 Sympterygia bonapartii, 86 Zearaja chilensis and 47 Atlantoraja castelnaui) and from different localities of the Argentine Sea were examined for anisakids. Parasites were found in the stomach wall at high prevalence in some samples. Based on morphology and mtDNA cox2 sequences analyses (from 24 larval worms), specimens were identified as Anisakis berlandi, A. pegreffii and Pseudoterranova cattani; the last two known as potentially pathogenic for humans. Differential distribution patterns were observed across parasite and hosts species. In general, fish caught in southern and deeper waters exhibited higher loads of Anisakis spp., whereas infestation levels by P. cattani increase in larger skates. Taking into account that the mere presence of worms or their antigens in fish meat can provoke allergic responses, information on distribution of parasites and their variability is essential for the implementation of food safety practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Harmonic Differential Quadrature Analysis of Soft-Core Sandwich Panels under Locally Distributed Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinwei Wang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sandwich structures are widely used in practice and thus various engineering theories adopting simplifying assumptions are available. However, most engineering theories of beams, plates and shells cannot recover all stresses accurately through their constitutive equations. Therefore, the soft-core is directly modeled by two-dimensional (2D elasticity theory without any pre-assumption on the displacement field. The top and bottom faces act like the elastic supports on the top and bottom edges of the core. The differential equations of the 2D core are then solved by the harmonic differential quadrature method (HDQM. To circumvent the difficulties in dealing with the locally distributed load by point discrete methods such as the HDQM, a general and rigorous way is proposed to treat the locally distributed load. Detailed formulations are provided. The static behavior of sandwich panels under different locally distributed loads is investigated. For verification, results are compared with data obtained by ABAQUS with very fine meshes. A high degree of accuracy on both displacement and stress has been observed.

  13. Fruit yield and root system distribution of 'Tommy Atkins' mango under different irrigation regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo R. dos Santos

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the fruit yield and the distribution of 'Tommy Atkins' mango root system under different irrigation regimes in the semiarid region of Bahia. The experimental design was completely randomized with five treatments and three replicates: 1 - Irrigation supplying 100% of ETc in phases I, II and III; 2 - Regulated deficit irrigation (RDI supplying 50% of ETc in phase I (beginning of flowering to early fruit growth; 3 - RDI supplying 50% ETc in phase II (start of expansion until the beginning of physiological maturity; 4 - RDI supplying 50% ETc in phase III (physiological mature fruits; 5 - No irrigation during all three phases. The regulated deficit irrigation supplying 50% of the ETc during phase I and II provided larger root length density of 'Tommy Atkins' mango. Regardless of management strategy, the roots were developed in all evaluated soil volume and the highest density is concentrated from 0.50 to 1.50 m distance from the trunk and in 0.20 to 0.90 m depth in the soil, that suggests this region to be the best place for fertilizer application as well for soil water sensor placement. The application of RDI during fruit set does not influence either root distribution or production. Root system and crop production is significantly reduced under no irrigation conditions.

  14. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

    2006-01-01

    We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

  15. Influence of microorganisms on the oxidation state distribution of multivalent actinides under anoxic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, Donald Timothy; Borkowski, Marian; Lucchini, Jean-Francois; Ams, David; Richmann, M.K.; Khaing, H.; Swanson, J.S.

    2010-01-01

    The fate and potential mobility of multivalent actinides in the subsurface is receiving increased attention as the DOE looks to cleanup the many legacy nuclear waste sites and associated subsurface contamination. Plutonium, uranium and neptunium are the near-surface multivalent contaminants of concern and are also key contaminants for the deep geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Their mobility is highly dependent on their redox distribution at their contamination source as well as along their potential migration pathways. This redox distribution is often controlled, especially in the near-surface where organic/inorganic contaminants often coexist, by the direct and indirect effects of microbial activity. Under anoxic conditions, indirect and direct bioreduction mechanisms exist that promote the prevalence of lower-valent species for multivalent actinides. Oxidation-state-specific biosorption is also an important consideration for long-term migration and can influence oxidation state distribution. Results of ongoing studies to explore and establish the oxidation-state specific interactions of soil bacteria (metal reducers and sulfate reducers) as well as halo-tolerant bacteria and Archaea for uranium, neptunium and plutonium will be presented. Enzymatic reduction is a key process in the bioreduction of plutonium and uranium, but co-enzymatic processes predominate in neptunium systems. Strong sorptive interactions can occur for most actinide oxidation states but are likely a factor in the stabilization of lower-valent species when more than one oxidation state can persist under anaerobic microbiologically-active conditions. These results for microbiologically active systems are interpreted in the context of their overall importance in defining the potential migration of multivalent actinides in the subsurface.

  16. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  17. Review of criteria for the selection of probability distributions for wind speed data and introduction of the moment and L-moment ratio diagram methods, with a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouarda, T.B.M.J.; Charron, C.; Chebana, F.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Review of criteria used to select probability distributions to model wind speed data. • Classical and L-moment ratio diagrams are applied to wind speed data. • The diagrams allow to select the best distribution to model each wind speed sample. • The goodness-of-fit statistics are more consistent with the L-moment ratio diagram. - Abstract: This paper reviews the different criteria used in the field of wind energy to compare the goodness-of-fit of candidate probability density functions (pdfs) to wind speed records, and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The moment ratio and L-moment ratio diagram methods are also proposed as alternative methods for the choice of the pdfs. These two methods have the advantage of allowing an easy comparison of the fit of several pdfs for several time series (stations) on a single diagram. Plotting the position of a given wind speed data set in these diagrams is instantaneous and provides more information than a goodness-of-fit criterion since it provides knowledge about such characteristics as the skewness and kurtosis of the station data set. In this paper, it is proposed to study the applicability of these two methods for the selection of pdfs for wind speed data. Both types of diagrams are used to assess the fit of the pdfs for wind speed series in the United Arab Emirates. The analysis of the moment ratio diagrams reveals that the Kappa, Log-Pearson type III and Generalized Gamma are the distributions that fit best all wind speed series. The Weibull represents the best distribution among those with only one shape parameter. Results obtained with the diagrams are compared with those obtained with goodness-of-fit statistics and a good agreement is observed especially in the case of the L-moment ratio diagram. It is concluded that these diagrams can represent a simple and efficient approach to be used as complementary method to goodness-of-fit criteria.

  18. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  20. Experimental study of the APR+ reactor core flow and pressure distributions under 4-pump running conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kihwan, E-mail: kihwankim@kaeri.re.kr; Euh, Dong-Jin; Chu, In-Cheol; Youn, Young-Jung; Choi, Hae-Seob; Kwon, Tae-Soon, E-mail: tskwon@kaeri.re.kr

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Experimental facility with a 1/5 scale was designed to perform various hydraulic tests of an APR+ reactor. • Two kinds of experiments, balanced and unbalanced flows under 4-pump running conditions were carried out. • The core inlet flow rates and exit pressure distributions were measured and analyzed at 257 discrete points. • The coolant mixing characteristics were investigated with the sectional pressure loss coefficients. - Abstract: The core inlet flow rates and exit pressure distributions of an APR+ (Advanced Power Reactor Plus) reactor were evaluated experimentally with the ACOP (APR+ Core Flow and Pressure) test facility. The ACOP test facility was constructed with a linear reduced scale of 1/5 referring to the APR+ reactor. The major flow path from the clod leg to hot leg was preserved with a principle of similarity. The core region was simulated using 257 core simulators, which are representative of the real HIPER fuel assemblies that APR+ reactor adopted. The core inlet flow rates and pressure distributions along the main flow path, which are significant information as an input data to evaluate the core thermal margin and reactor safety, were obtained by differential pressures measured at core simulators representing 257 fuel assemblies, and the static or differential pressures at 584 points, respectively. Two kinds of experiments, 4-pump balanced and unbalanced flow conditions, were conducted to examine the hydraulic characteristics of the reactor coolant flow. The mass balance and overall pressure drop were carefully examined to check the reliability of the obtained values. The inlet flow rates of the two test results showed similar distributions, which met the hydraulic performance requirement. The details of these experiments, the facility, and a data analysis are also described in this paper.

  1. Probabilidade do erro do tipo I nas cartas X e S de Shewhart sob não normalidade Probability of type I error in X and S Shewhart Control Charts under non-normality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luis Korzenowski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste artigo é verificar o comportamento das cartas de média e desvio padrão de Shewhart em relação à probabilidade do erro do tipo I quando da violação da suposição de normalidade. Foi realizada a simulação de uma série de 500.000 amostras (subgrupos de tamanho n = 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 e 25. As amostras foram simuladas a partir das distribuições normal, t de Student, exponencial, qui-quadrado, gamma e Weibull. Verificou-se em dados não normais o aumento na probabilidade de erro do tipo I na carta de médias em todas as distribuições simuladas. O mínimo tamanho da amostra necessário está relacionado ao grau de assimetria da distribuição dos dados, sendo que, em alguns casos, nem mesmo n = 25 apresentou resultados satisfatórios. No gráfico S, o aumento da probabilidade de erro do tipo I é significativamente superior em quase todas as distribuições simuladas e seu comportamento é influenciado não só pelo tipo de distribuição, mas também pelo tamanho da amostra.The purpose of this article was to examine the performance of Shewhart average and standard deviation control charts in relation to the probability of type I error at the occurrence of normality assumption violation. A simulation of a series of 500,000 samples (subgroups of sizes n=3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 was performed. The samples were simulated from the following distributions: Normal, Binomial, Poisson, Exponential, Chi-square, Gamma and Weibull. It was possible to find that, in non-normal data, there was an increase in the probability of type I error on the average chart of all simulated distributions. The minimum sample size required is related to the degree of asymmetry of the data distribution and, in some cases, not even n=25 presented satisfactory results. In the S chart, the increased probability of type I error is significantly higher for almost all distributions simulated and its performance is influenced not only by the type of

  2. Distribution and survival of Vibrio vulnificus genotypes in postharvest Gulf Coast (USA) oysters under refrigeration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, R R; Arias, C R

    2012-07-01

      The effect of refrigeration on the seafood-borne pathogen Vibrio vulnificus was investigated in terms of genotype selection and persistence in refrigerated oysters.   Naturally occurring numbers of V. vulnificus in oysters from two different locations were compared during a 2-week period under refrigeration conditions. At different time points, V. vulnificus isolates were recovered from oysters and ascribed to 16S rRNA gene type A, B or AB using restriction fragment length polymorphism. Initial V. vulnificus numbers were higher than 10(4) most probable number (MPN) g(-1) and remained unchanged throughout the duration of the study. 16S rRNA gene type B isolates accounted for 53% of the isolates recovered. Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis confirmed the high genetic variability previously observed within this species but revealed the presence of two main genetic groups within the species that matched 16S rRNA gene ascription.   Vibrio vulnificus numbers in oysters did not significantly declined over the shelf life of the product and refrigeration did not select for specific V. vulnificus types.   The prevalence of V. vulnificus 16S rRNA gene type B in oysters was higher than previously reported from the same geographic area and was not significantly reduced during the storage period. Vibrio vulnificus is divided into two clear genotypes, regardless of the genetic marker used. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  3. Probability measures on metric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    In this book, the author gives a cohesive account of the theory of probability measures on complete metric spaces (which is viewed as an alternative approach to the general theory of stochastic processes). After a general description of the basics of topology on the set of measures, the author discusses regularity, tightness, and perfectness of measures, properties of sampling distributions, and metrizability and compactness theorems. Next, he describes arithmetic properties of probability measures on metric groups and locally compact abelian groups. Covered in detail are notions such as decom

  4. Privacy-Preserving k-Means Clustering under Multiowner Setting in Distributed Cloud Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Rong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the advent of big data era, clients who lack computational and storage resources tend to outsource data mining tasks to cloud service providers in order to improve efficiency and reduce costs. It is also increasingly common for clients to perform collaborative mining to maximize profits. However, due to the rise of privacy leakage issues, the data contributed by clients should be encrypted using their own keys. This paper focuses on privacy-preserving k-means clustering over the joint datasets encrypted under multiple keys. Unfortunately, existing outsourcing k-means protocols are impractical because not only are they restricted to a single key setting, but also they are inefficient and nonscalable for distributed cloud computing. To address these issues, we propose a set of privacy-preserving building blocks and outsourced k-means clustering protocol under Spark framework. Theoretical analysis shows that our scheme protects the confidentiality of the joint database and mining results, as well as access patterns under the standard semihonest model with relatively small computational overhead. Experimental evaluations on real datasets also demonstrate its efficiency improvements compared with existing approaches.

  5. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  6. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  7. A consistent NPMLE of the joint distribution function with competing risks data under the dependent masking and right-censoring model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiahui; Yu, Qiqing

    2016-01-01

    Dinse (Biometrics, 38:417-431, 1982) provides a special type of right-censored and masked competing risks data and proposes a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and a pseudo MLE of the joint distribution function [Formula: see text] with such data. However, their asymptotic properties have not been studied so far. Under the extention of either the conditional masking probability (CMP) model or the random partition masking (RPM) model (Yu and Li, J Nonparametr Stat 24:753-764, 2012), we show that (1) Dinse's estimators are consistent if [Formula: see text] takes on finitely many values and each point in the support set of [Formula: see text] can be observed; (2) if the failure time is continuous, the NPMLE is not uniquely determined, and the standard approach (which puts weights only on one element in each observed set) leads to an inconsistent NPMLE; (3) in general, Dinse's estimators are not consistent even under the discrete assumption; (4) we construct a consistent NPMLE. The consistency is given under a new model called dependent masking and right-censoring model. The CMP model and the RPM model are indeed special cases of the new model. We compare our estimator to Dinse's estimators through simulation and real data. Simulation study indicates that the consistent NPMLE is a good approximation to the underlying distribution for moderate sample sizes.

  8. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno effects measured by transition probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Wenxian, E-mail: wxzhang@whu.edu.cn [School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072 (China); Department of Optical Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics China, CAS, Beijing 100190 (China); Kofman, A.G. [CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Department of Physics, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1040 (United States); Zhuang, Jun [Department of Optical Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); You, J.Q. [Beijing Computational Science Research Center, Beijing 10084 (China); Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Nori, Franco [CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Department of Physics, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1040 (United States)

    2013-10-30

    Using numerical calculations, we compare the transition probabilities of many spins in random magnetic fields, subject to either frequent projective measurements, frequent phase modulations, or a mix of modulations and measurements. For various distribution functions, we find the transition probability under frequent modulations is suppressed most if the pulse delay is short and the evolution time is larger than a critical value. Furthermore, decay freezing occurs only under frequent modulations as the pulse delay approaches zero. In the large pulse-delay region, however, the transition probabilities under frequent modulations are highest among the three control methods.

  9. Optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions under Weibull distribution deterioration and trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneous determination of retail price and lot-size (RPLS under the assumption that the supplier offers a fixed credit period to the retailer. It is assumed that the item in stock deteriorates over time at a rate that follows a two-parameter Weibull distribution and that the price-dependent demand is represented by a constant-price-elasticity function of retail price. The RPLS decision model is developed and solved analytically. Results are illustrated with the help of a base example. Computational results show that the supplier earns more profits when the credit period is greater than the replenishment cycle length. Sensitivity analysis of the solution to changes in the value of input parameters of the base example is also discussed.

  10. Flexible voltage support control for three-phase distributed generation inverters under grid fault

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Camacho, Antonio; Castilla, Miguel; Miret, Jaume

    2013-01-01

    connected inverters is proposed. In three phase balanced voltage sags, the inverter should inject reactive power in order to raise the voltage in all phases. In one or two phase faults, the main concern of the distributed generation inverter is to equalize voltages by reducing the negative symmetric...... Operators describe the behavior of the energy source, regulating voltage limits and reactive power injection to remain connected and support the grid under fault. On the basis that different kinds of voltage sags require different voltage support strategies, a flexible control scheme for three phase grid...... sequence and clear the phase jump. Due to system limitations, a balance between these two extreme policies is mandatory. Thus, over-voltage and undervoltage can be avoided, and the proposed control scheme prevents disconnection while achieving the desired voltage support service. The main contribution...

  11. Some Applications of Bayes' Rule in Probability Theory to Electrocatalytic Reaction Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Z. Fahidy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian methods stem from the principle of linking prior probability and conditional probability (likelihood to posterior probability via Bayes' rule. The posterior probability is an updated (improved version of the prior probability of an event, through the likelihood of finding empirical evidence if the underlying assumptions (hypothesis are valid. In the absence of a frequency distribution for the prior probability, Bayesian methods have been found more satisfactory than distribution-based techniques. The paper illustrates the utility of Bayes' rule in the analysis of electrocatalytic reactor performance by means of four numerical examples involving a catalytic oxygen cathode, hydrogen evolution on a synthetic metal, the reliability of a device testing the quality of an electrocatalyst, and the range of Tafel slopes exhibited by an electrocatalyst.

  12. Energy analysis of under-floor air distribution (UFAD) system: An office building case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alajmi, Ali F.; Abou-Ziyan, Hosny Z.; El-Amer, Wid

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • The key issue for efficient performance of UFAD system is to ensure the thermal stratification establishment. • The unnecessarily excess air supplied to the room deteriorates the thermal stratification. • Improper UFAD operation increases the fan power and HVAC electric demand. • The proper UFAD system is typically more efficient than the existed UFAD system with energy savings of about 23–37%. • UFAD system shows over the CBAD system saving by about 37–39% during the peak months and 51% during October. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of an experimental and theoretical investigation to evaluate an under-floor air distribution (UFAD) system existed in an office building working on hot climate. Air temperature a distribution and supply air velocity are measured in two measuring stations; each consists of eight temperature sensors which were installed to measure room air temperatures along zone height. The obtained data shows an inefficient operation of the UFAD system which deteriorates the advantages of energy saving that presumed by UFAD system. The building energy simulation program, EnergyPlus, was used to identify the best setting of UFAD system and compare it with the existed UFAD and the conventional ceiling based air distribution (CBAD) system. The simulation results show that setting of room thermostat at 26 °C and supply air temperature at 18 °C provides the best efficient UFAD system. Due to improper operation of the tested UFAD system, its actual consumption is found to be higher than the best simulated UFAD by 23–37% during July to October. Also, the simulation results show that the HVAC demand of UFAD is lower than CBAD by 37–39% during July–September and 51% in October

  13. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Andrew Joyner

    Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

  14. Dimple coalescence and liquid droplets distributions during phase separation in a pure fluid under microgravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oprisan, Ana; Oprisan, Sorinel A; Hegseth, John J; Garrabos, Yves; Lecoutre-Chabot, Carole; Beysens, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Phase separation has important implications for the mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties of materials. Weightless conditions prevent buoyancy and sedimentation from affecting the dynamics of phase separation and the morphology of the domains. In our experiments, sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) was initially heated about 1K above its critical temperature under microgravity conditions and then repeatedly quenched using temperature steps, the last one being of 3.6 mK, until it crossed its critical temperature and phase-separated into gas and liquid domains. Both full view (macroscopic) and microscopic view images of the sample cell unit were analyzed to determine the changes in the distribution of liquid droplet diameters during phase separation. Previously, dimple coalescences were only observed in density-matched binary liquid mixture near its critical point of miscibility. Here we present experimental evidences in support of dimple coalescence between phase-separated liquid droplets in pure, supercritical, fluids under microgravity conditions. Although both liquid mixtures and pure fluids belong to the same universality class, both the mass transport mechanisms and their thermophysical properties are significantly different. In supercritical pure fluids the transport of heat and mass are strongly coupled by the enthalpy of condensation, whereas in liquid mixtures mass transport processes are purely diffusive. The viscosity is also much smaller in pure fluids than in liquid mixtures. For these reasons, there are large differences in the fluctuation relaxation time and hydrodynamics flows that prompted this experimental investigation. We found that the number of droplets increases rapidly during the intermediate stage of phase separation. We also found that above a cutoff diameter of about 100 microns the size distribution of droplets follows a power law with an exponent close to -2, as predicted from phenomenological considerations.

  15. Toward enhancing the distributed video coder under a multiview video codec framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Jiann-Jone; Tsai, Yao-Hong; Chen, Chin-Hua

    2016-11-01

    The advance of video coding technology enables multiview video (MVV) or three-dimensional television (3-D TV) display for users with or without glasses. For mobile devices or wireless applications, a distributed video coder (DVC) can be utilized to shift the encoder complexity to decoder under the MVV coding framework, denoted as multiview distributed video coding (MDVC). We proposed to exploit both inter- and intraview video correlations to enhance side information (SI) and improve the MDVC performance: (1) based on the multiview motion estimation (MVME) framework, a categorized block matching prediction with fidelity weights (COMPETE) was proposed to yield a high quality SI frame for better DVC reconstructed images. (2) The block transform coefficient properties, i.e., DCs and ACs, were exploited to design the priority rate control for the turbo code, such that the DVC decoding can be carried out with fewest parity bits. In comparison, the proposed COMPETE method demonstrated lower time complexity, while presenting better reconstructed video quality. Simulations show that the proposed COMPETE can reduce the time complexity of MVME to 1.29 to 2.56 times smaller, as compared to previous hybrid MVME methods, while the image peak signal to noise ratios (PSNRs) of a decoded video can be improved 0.2 to 3.5 dB, as compared to H.264/AVC intracoding.

  16. Distribution and diversity of airborne microflora under mangrove forest at sandspit area karachi, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazim, K.; Khan, M.U.; Ali, Q.M.; Ahmed, M.; Shaukat, S.S.; Sherwani, S.K.

    2012-01-01

    Fungi and bacteria are heterotrophic decomposers that grow on organic matter and occupy various habitats in mangrove forests. This paper deals with the distribution and diversity of air-borne microbiota (fungi and bacteria) under a mangrove forest at Sandspit, Pakistan. A permanent stand was set up at Sandspit to observe the qualitative and quantitative variations throughout the year, using petri plate techniques. During the study, a total of 16 fungal species, viz., Aspergillus niger, A. fumigatus, A. sulphureus, A. terreus, A. wentii, A. flavus, Alternaria alternata, A. maritima, A. porri, Alternaria sp., Rhizopus varians, Mucormucedo, Penicillium sp., P. notatum, Dreshellera biseptata, Exosporiella fungorum, Cladosporium oxysporum and 14420 +- 267 bacterial colonies were recorded from the selected site. The study revealed that the fungi were the major component of airborne microflora in mangrove environment. It was observed that both fungal species and number of bacterial colonies were higher in summer than in winter. It is anticipated that the temperature and salinity of sea-water directly affect the diversity of fungi and bacteria in mangroves environment. The maximum diversity H' (1.906) was recorded in August whereas the minimum H' (1.053) was recorded in March. It is hoped that this research will add to our knowledge pertaining to the distribution and diversity of the airborne microbiota (bacteria and fungi) in mangrove ecosystem. (author)

  17. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  18. Precipitação provável para a região de Madre de Deus, Alto Rio Grande: modelos de probabilidades e valores característicos Probable rainfall for Madre de Deus county, Alto Rio Grande region: distribution probability models and values characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alves Junqueira Júnior

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Nos dias atuais a irrigação é uma das principais técnicas a serviço da agricultura. Entretanto, a consideração da irrigação como única fonte de suprir a demanda de água para as plantas pode acarretar em sistemas superdimensionados, o que contribui para elevar seu custo de implantação. Uma das alternativas utilizadas na solução desse problema consiste em considerar a precipitação a um determinado nível de probabilidade, ou seja, a precipitação provável, o que possibilitaria fazer a irrigação complementar. Assim, objetivou-se com o presente trabalho, caracterizar a precipitação provável na região do município de Madre de Deus, MG, comparando quatro diferentes modelos de distribuição de freqüência (Gama, Normal, Log-normal 2 e 3 parâmetros. As lâminas diárias foram totalizadas em períodos de 10, 15 e 30 dias, sendo avaliadas com 13 diferentes níveis de probabilidades, para séries históricas de 57 anos de observação, compreendido entre 1942 e 1999. Foi aplicado o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov a fim de avaliar a adequabilidade das mesmas e verificar qual modelo é mais adequado para cada uma das séries históricas. Observou-se que os modelos de probabilidade adequaram-se melhor ao período chuvoso, sendo a distribuição Log-normal 3 parâmetros a mais adequada para as séries históricas de período mensal e a distribuição Gama para os períodos quinzenal e decendial.Nowadays, irrigation is one of the most important agricultural technique. Therefore, this technique can not be the only source to supply water for crops, because the irrigation system may be over designed, increasing installation costs. One of alternatives to solve this problem is to analyze the probability of rainfall, decreasing costs and easing the irrigation management. This study purposes to characterize probable rainfall for Madre de Deus Village, comparing four (4 probability distribution models (Gama, Normal, Log-normal at 2 and 3

  19. Power-law tail probabilities of drainage areas in river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veitzer, S.A.; Troutman, B.M.; Gupta, V.K.

    2003-01-01

    The significance of power-law tail probabilities of drainage areas in river basins was discussed. The convergence to a power law was not observed for all underlying distributions, but for a large class of statistical distributions with specific limiting properties. The article also discussed about the scaling properties of topologic and geometric network properties in river basins.

  20. Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.

    2017-04-01

    The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports