Denmark's forth national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

The Kingdom of Denmark comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified on behalf of all three parts. This report is Denmark's Fourth Climate Communication under the Climate Convention. Since Denmark's ratification covers the entire Realm, the report includes information on Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The report is organised in accordance with the guidelines for national communications adopted by the parties to the Climate Convention. (BA)

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

2012-01-01

Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

2017-01-01

This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

Food-web dynamics under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

2017-01-01

Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Shoo, L.P.; Olson, D.H.; Mcmenamin, S.K.; Murray, K.A.; Van Sluys, M.; Donnelly, M.A.; Stratford, D.; Terhivuo, J.; Merino-Viteri, A.; Herbert, S.M.; Bishop, P.J.; Corn, P.S.; Dovey, L.; Griffiths, R.A.; Lowe, K.; Mahony, M.; McCallum, H.; Shuker, J.D.; Simpkins, C.; Skerratt, L.F.; Williams, S.E.; Hero, J.-M.

2011-01-01

1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

2010-01-01

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

Predicting shifting sustainability tradeoffs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarà, Gianluca; Gouhier, Tarik C; Brigolin, Daniele; Porporato, Erika M D; Mangano, M Cristina; Mirto, Simone; Mazzola, Antonio; Pastres, Roberto

2018-05-03

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 gC m -2 d -1 ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

DAS, Bidhan C

2009-06-01

It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country. © 2009 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, S. Niggol; McCarl, Bruce

2011-01-01

Simple Summary World communities are concerned about the impacts of a hotter and drier climate on future agriculture. By examining Australian regional livestock data on sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs, the authors find that livestock production will expand under such conditions. Livestock revenue per farm is expected to increase by more than 47% by 2060 under the UKMO, the GISS, and a high degree of warming CSIRO scenario. The existence of a threshold temperature for these species is not evident. Abstract This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data. PMID:26486620

Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is often...

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily S Hope

Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

Denmark's forth national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

The Kingdom of Denmark comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified on behalf of all three parts. This report is Denmark's Fourth Climate Communication under the Climate Convention. Since Denmark's ratification covers the entire Realm, the report includes information on Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The report is organised in accordance with the guidelines for national communications adopted by the parties to the Climate Convention. (BA)

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US

Science.gov (United States)

Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-12-01

Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.

Canada's national report on climate change: Actions to meet commitments under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, countries must adopt measures to mitigate climate change, adapt to its possible effects, increase public awareness and scientific understanding of climate change and possible responses, and work together in all of these areas. A review is provided of action being currently taken by Canadian governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, and the private sector to meet domestic and international climate change commitments. Projections indicate that climate change could result in significant changes to many of Canada's natural ecosystems, with equally significant economic and social consequences. Canadian demand for energy is the chief cause of Canada's man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. As a first step in meeting its commitment, Canada is developing and implementing measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mainly in the area of energy efficiency, energy conservation, and switching to energy sources that are less carbon-intensive. Progress in limiting such emissions will be assessed via emissions inventories, examination of climatic change indicators, forecasting future energy-related emissions of the three primary greenhouse gases, and use of case studies to assess the effectiveness of emissions control measures. Other components of Canadian activities include increasing public awareness of climate change, sponsoring research on the subject, reviewing environmental policies, and international cooperation. 59 refs., 36 figs., 23 tabs

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-12-01

Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

2014-01-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oliveira, Guilherme de; Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rangel, Thiago Fernado

2012-01-01

to assess changes in climate suitability across individual species ranges, ensemble forecasting was used based on seven bioclimatic envelope models, three atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, and two greenhouse emission gas scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080. We found that most species will gain...... additional threats to the biome’s biodiversity. Here, we ask if the remnants of natural vegetation in Caatinga biome, where endemic terrestrial vertebrate species occur, are likely to retain more climatic suitability under climate change scenarios than other less pristine areas of the biome. In order......The Caatinga is a semiarid biome of the northeast of Brazil with only 1 % of its territory currently conserved. The biome’s biodiversity is highly threatened due to exposure to land conversion for agricultural and cattle ranch. Climate forecasts predict increases in aridity, which could pose...

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

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Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

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Bruce McCarl

2011-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

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Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

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Erin Coulter Riordan

Full Text Available Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS, a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast. Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

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Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

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Smith, James A.

2009-01-01

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

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Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

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Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

The deep ocean under climate change

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Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

2015-11-01

The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

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Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

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Shabeh ul Hasson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

The deep ocean under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

2015-11-13

The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

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Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

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Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Smart city planning under the climate change condition

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Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

2017-08-01

With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

2006-01-01

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

Water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change in North Nile Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samiha Ouda

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Determination of water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change is important for policy makers in Egypt. The objectives of this paper were to calculate (i ETo and (ii water requirements for wheat and maize crops grown in five governorates (Alexandria, Demiatte, Kafr El-Sheik, El-Dakahlia and El-Behira located in North Nile Delta of Egypt under current climate and climate change. ECHAM5 climate model was used to develop A1B climate change scenario in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Monthly values of evapotranspiration (ETo under the different scenarios in these governorates were calculated using Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S. Then, these values were regressed on ETo values previously calculated by Penman-Monteith equation (P-M and linear regression (prediction equations were developed for each governorate. The predicted ETo values were compared to the values of ETo calculated by P-M equation and the deviations between them were very low (RMSE/obs=0.04-0.06 mm and R2 =0.96-0.99. Water requirements for wheat and maize were calculated using BISm model under current climate and in 2020, 2030 and 2040. The results showed that average annual ETo would increase by low percentage in 2020 and 2030. However, in 2040 the increase would reach 8%. Water requirements are expected to increase by 2-3% for wheat and by 10-15% for maize, which would result in reduction of the cultivated area. Thus, it is very important to revise and fix the production system of wheat and maize, in terms of the used cultivars, fertilizer and irrigation application to overcome the risk of climate change. Additional key words: Triticum spp; Zea mays; Penman-Monteith equation; Hargreaves-Samani equation; BISm model; ECHAM5 climate model; A1B climate change scenario. Abbreviations used: BISm (basic irrigation scheduling model; CCAFS (Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security; ETo (evapotranspiration; H-S (Hargreaves & Samani; Kc (crop coefficient; PI (percentage of increase; P

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

Water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change in North Nile Delta

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ouda, S.; Noreldin, T; Abd El-Latif, K.

2015-07-01

Determination of water requirements for wheat and maize under climate change is important for policy makers in Egypt. The objectives of this paper were to calculate (i) ETo and (ii) water requirements for wheat and maize crops grown in five governorates (Alexandria, Demiatte, Kafr El-Sheik, El-Dakahlia and El-Behira) located in North Nile Delta of Egypt under current climate and climate change. ECHAM5 climate model was used to develop A1B climate change scenario in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Monthly values of evapotranspiration (ETo) under the different scenarios in these governorates were calculated using Hargreaves-Samani equation (H-S). Then, these values were regressed on ETo values previously calculated by Penman-Monteith equation (P-M) and linear regression (prediction equations were developed for each governorate). The predicted ETo values were compared to the values of ETo calculated by P-M equation and the deviations between them were very low (RMSE/obs=0.04-0.06 mm and R2 =0.96-0.99). Water requirements for wheat and maize were calculated using BISm model under current climate and in 2020, 2030 and 2040. The results showed that average annual ETo would increase by low percentage in 2020 and 2030. However, in 2040 the increase would reach 8%. Water requirements are expected to increase by 2-3% for wheat and by 10-15% for maize, which would result in reduction of the cultivated area. Thus, it is very important to revise and fix the production system of wheat and maize, in terms of the used cultivars, fertilizer and irrigation application to overcome the risk of climate change. (Author)

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Irfan Ashraf

Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lung, Tobias; Meller, Laura; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar

2014-07-01

Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union's (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

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Yanlong Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

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Samuel Sellers

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.

Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2009-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

Reducing the rate of carbon dioxide buildup with biomass fuel under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peart, R.; Curry, R.; Jones, J.; Boote, K.; Allen, L.

1993-01-01

The authors have been working for several years on estimating, through crop simulation and crop growth chamber experiments, the changes in yield and in irrigation demand which would be brought about by a doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gases, given the results of three General Circulation Models (GCM) that simulate the climate change that would be expected. They are now beginning to study the impact this might have in relation to biomass fuels. An important question is the effect of the changed climate on crop production, would the increased carbon dioxide concentration outweigh the negative climate change effects on crop yields? Results are quite variable due to different climate change effects at different locations and the differences in historical weather and in soils in different locations. However, on balance, climate change would result in reduced yields of the crops we studied, soybean, maize and peanut. However, US production of these crops could be maintained or increased by the use of irrigation on more acres. Irrigated crops, in general, would have increased yields under climate change because of the increased photosynthetic efficiency with higher carbon dioxide levels. Results on net remediation of carbon dioxide buildup by the use of biomass fuel rather than fossil fuel are not completed, but previous work has shown that Midwest non-irrigated maize production provides much more equivalent biomass energy than is required for its production. The studies with soybean show a ratio of equivalent energy output in the seed to energy used in producing the crop ranging from 4 to almost 9 under climate change

Modelling plant invasion pathways in protected areas under climate change: implication for invasion management

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C.-J. Wang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS to invade protected areas (PAs, but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.

THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON ROMANIAN FORESTS UNDER THE IMPACT OF RAINFALLS

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OCTAVIA BOGDAN

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The risk of climate changes on romanian forests under the impact of rainfalls. The risk of climate change on forests in Romania under the impact of precipitation. This paper is a continuation of studies published in the previous magazine Risks and Disasters, editor V. Sorocovschi, which treated the risk of climate change on forests induced by air temperature in Romania. This time, using the same methodology (Bogdan, Coconea, 2013 demonstrated that rainfall-induced climate changes, due to global warming, exert a risk to vegetation in general and forests in particular, but of a regional nature (tablel 1 . This is due to a complex of geographical factors (position, orographic barrier role, topoclimatic discontinuity alternating positive and negative forms of relief etc. and meteorological factors (enhancing or reducing atmospheric air circulation. The decennial analysis by floors of vegetation during 1961-2010 (table 3a-3h indicates that under conditions of increasing air temperature are likely to take place, both a decrease in precipitations (as in decades 3-4, as well as an increase, like in the last decade, 2001-2010, which was at the hottest. The cause lies in the intensification of heat stroke, the evaporation, thermal convection (especially in the hottest months of the year, which increases cloudiness and precipitation implicitly. The feedback reaction of forest ecosystems to climate change leads to the following conclusions: under the conditions of decreasing rainfall, the water storage in the soil lowers, the soil dryness increase eakens trees and increases resistance to wind-blown trees phenomenon, so that the forest loses its climate equilibrium role under increased rainfall, frequency of rain showers accompanied by hail and storms, there are foliaceous system destruction, intense erosion processes (leading to CO2 release from soil to the atmosphere and thunderstorms (which will generate increased forest fires and pollution, whereas

Adaptation in climate change hotspots: Change under way in Africa ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2015-01-26

Jan 26, 2015 ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) aims to build the resilience of poor people to climate change in three climate change “hot spots”: basins, deltas, and semi-arid regions. In each of these areas, large numbers of poor people depend on climate sensitive sectors for ...

Robustness-based evaluation of hydropower infrastructure design under climate change

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Mehmet Ümit Taner

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The conventional tools of decision-making in water resources infrastructure planning have been developed for problems with well-characterized uncertainties and are ill-suited for problems involving climate nonstationarity. In the past 20 years, a predict-then-act-based approach to the incorporation of climate nonstationarity has been widely adopted in which the outputs of bias-corrected climate model projections are used to evaluate planning options. However, the ambiguous nature of results has often proved unsatisfying to decision makers. This paper presents the use of a bottom-up, decision scaling framework for the evaluation of water resources infrastructure design alternatives regarding their robustness to climate change and expected value of performance. The analysis begins with an assessment of the vulnerability of the alternative designs under a wide domain of systematically-generated plausible future climates and utilizes downscaled climate projections ex post to inform likelihoods within a risk-based evaluation. The outcomes under different project designs are compared by way of a set of decision criteria, including the performance under the most likely future, expected value of performance across all evaluated futures and robustness. The method is demonstrated for the design of a hydropower system in sub-Saharan Africa and is compared to the results that would be found using a GCM-based, scenario-led analysis. The results indicate that recommendations from the decision scaling analysis can be substantially different from the scenario-led approach, alleviate common shortcomings related to the use of climate projections in water resources planning, and produce recommendations that are more robust to future climate uncertainty.

Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keppel, G.; Niel, Van K.P.; Wardell-Johnson, G.W.; Yates, C.J.; Byrne, M.; Mucina, L.; Schut, A.G.T.; Hopper, S.D.; Franklin, S.E.

2012-01-01

Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

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Fikru Fentaw Abera

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer’s Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM, a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Blyth, Alan M.

2018-03-01

Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1-3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5-7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

2016-12-01

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

2017-01-01

Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that ...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter

2010-01-01

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of

Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

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Daniela Dias

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

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Dandan Zhao

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs based on five general circulation models (GCMs downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5. The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2017-03-01

The Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and implementation of best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops), significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under a historical climate scenario, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compared with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and a cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause increases of 9.7% in SS, 4.1% in N, and 7.2% in P compared to current land use. Under future climate scenarios, nutrients including SS, N, and P were reduced through land management and practices and BMPs by up to 54.0% (SS), 30.4% (N), and 7.1% (P). Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management by using long-term monitoring data from field to watershed is necessary to verify the findings and move toward watershed-specific regional programs for climate adaptation.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.

Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Steffens

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Sweden's third national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Sweden's national communication to the UN Convention on Climate Change describes everything about the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases, the motives and forces behind emissions, and official Swedish climate policies. Every five years, Sweden submits a communication on practical climate efforts in Sweden to the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Swedish Environmental Protection Board has coordinated the work of producing the basic documentation for the communication, which also describes the measures already taken and those planned for the future. In addition, scenarios have been adopted for developments in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden's vulnerability and Swedish research into the climate and climate change

The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akiko Hirata

Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Life in Europe under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alcamo, J.; Olesen, Jørgen E

Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked...... changes in vegetation cover, increased floods along rivers and coastlines as well as more frequent droughts and forest fires, often leading to large societal costs. The changes will be minor in some cases, profound in others, but in any case, pervasive.......Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked...

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

Optimization of regional water - power systems under cooling constraints and climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Payet-burin, Raphaël; Bertoni, Federica; Davidsen, Claus

2018-01-01

Thermo-electric generation represents 70% of Europe's electricity production and 43% of water withdrawals, and is therefore a key element of the water-energy nexus. In 2003, 2006 and 2009, several thermal power plants had to be switched off in Europe because of heat waves, showing the need...... to assess the impact of climate change on cooling constraints of thermal power plants. An integrated water-power model of the Iberian Peninsula was developed in this study. It includes a physical hydrologic representation, spatially and temporally resolved water demands, management of water infrastructure...... and a simple power system model. The system was evaluated under present and future climatic conditions using different climate change scenarios. The cost of cooling constraints is found to increase by 220–640 million €/year, for the period 2046–2065 depending on the climate change scenario. Average available...

Stormwater management: adaptation and planning under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mailhot, A.

2009-01-01

'Full text:' Extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a future climate. Such a change will have an impact on the level of service provided by stormwater infrastructures since the current capacity is based on statistical analyses of past events, assuming that past conditions are representative of future climate conditions. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events will result in increasing runoff volumes and peak discharges that will more frequently exceed the capacity of current systems. For that reason, it is important to look for adaptation measures and to review design criteria in order to maintain an acceptable level of service in the long term. One important challenge related to stormwater management and climate change (CC) is related to the time scale of both the expected lifespan of some system components (that can last up to 100 years) and the horizon of the actual CC projection (50 to 100 years). Pipes currently replaced or installed may consequently experience very different climatic conditions during their lifetime and a general degradation of the level of service may be expected according to the actual CC projections. Among others, this means that the design criteria currently used must be reviewed. This paper intends to review and describe the main issues related to adaptation and planning of stormwater management infrastructures under climate change. More precisely, the following topics will be presented and discussed: 1) what are the available projections for intense rainfall events and what are the main uncertainties related to these projections? (how reliable are they?); 2) what will be the impacts of CC on stormwater management according to available projections? 3) how do we revise design criteria in a changing climate and define the level of service in a context where the return period concept is no longer valid? 4) what kind of adaptation measures can be put forward

Feedbacks of windthrow for Norway spruce and Scots pine stands under changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panferov, O.; Döring, C.; Rauch, E.

2009-01-01

is currently being developed at Göttingen University aims at providing a tool for the quantitative assessment of biotic and abiotic risks for forest ecosystems under the conditions of changing climate. In order to assess the future risks of wind damage the system employs a coupled modelling approach combining...... the turbulence model SCAlar DIStribution (SCADIS) with the soil–vegetation–atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) model BROOK 90. The present study investigates projections of wind damage in Solling, Germany under climate scenarios A1B and B1, taking into account the windthrow feedbacks—changes of microclimate as a result...... the probability of damage would be higher than under B1 and that under the same climate and soil conditions the risk for spruce stands would be higher than for pine stands of equal age. The degree of damage and feedback contribution as well as a sign of feedback in each particular case will strongly depend...

Improved simulation of peak flows under climate change: post-processing or composite opjective calibration?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, Xujie; Booij, Martijn J.; Xu, YuePing

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on peak flows. However, there may be bias in the simulation of peak flows by hydrological models. This study aims to improve the simulation of peak flows under climate change in Lanjiang catchment, east China, by comparing two approaches:

Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

1997-04-01

If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

2010-01-01

Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels...... and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F A; Bravo, Mercedes A; Bell, Michelle L

2016-10-01

Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM 2.5 , to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM 2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM 2.5 . Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Reu

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and their responses under climatic changes to forecast and explain changes in plant functional richness and shifts in biome geographic distributions.

The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including ecophysiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We use JeDi to quantify changes in plant functional richness and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

Our results show (i a significant loss of plant functional richness in the tropics, (ii an increase in plant functional richness at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a pole-ward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants. We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships. Such a mechanistic approach may be particularly relevant when addressing vegetation responses to climatic changes that encounter novel combinations of climate parameters that do not exist under contemporary climate.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2016-03-01

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

Feedbacks of windthrow for Norway spruce and Scots pine stands under changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panferov, O; Rauch, E; Doering, C; Ahrends, B; Sogachev, A

2009-01-01

Wind damage is one of the major natural disturbances that can occur worldwide in most types of forests. Enhanced management using adequate decision support systems (DSS) can considerably reduce the risk of windthrow. The decision support system 'Forest and Climate Change' (DSS-WuK) which is currently being developed at Goettingen University aims at providing a tool for the quantitative assessment of biotic and abiotic risks for forest ecosystems under the conditions of changing climate. In order to assess the future risks of wind damage the system employs a coupled modelling approach combining the turbulence model SCAlar DIStribution (SCADIS) with the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) model BROOK 90. The present study investigates projections of wind damage in Solling, Germany under climate scenarios A1B and B1, taking into account the windthrow feedbacks-changes of microclimate as a result of tree fall and consequent stabilization or destabilization of a forest stand. The results of the study indicate that in Solling the risk of windthrow for spruce and pine forest stands is likely to increase considerably during the 21st century. The general tendencies indicate that under A1B the probability of damage would be higher than under B1 and that under the same climate and soil conditions the risk for spruce stands would be higher than for pine stands of equal age. The degree of damage and feedback contribution as well as a sign of feedback in each particular case will strongly depend on the particular local or regional combination of climatic and soil factors with tree species, age and structure. For Solling the positive feedback to local climatic forcing is found. The feedback contributes considerably (up to 6% under given conditions) to the projected forest damage and cannot be neglected. Therefore, the adequate projection of future damage probabilities can be performed only with a process-based coupled soil-atmosphere model with corresponding high spatial

Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

2015-12-01

Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

Planning in a climate of change: Choices under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Etkin, D.

1993-01-01

As part of a plan to ensure that potential changes in the Canadian environment as a result of climate change are considered in major projects, the Canadian Climate Centre has developed a set of interim guidelines for consideration of climate change concerns in environmental assessments. One such guideline is to identify the sensitivity of the project to climate variability and change, including increased risks of extreme events. This guideline is discussed in a consideration of different methodologies of assessing possible future impacts, and in an examination of ways to assemble a climate data base. Climatological data sets may be obtained from climate normals, historical or paleoclimate data, global climate models, or spatial analogues. Methodological approaches include selecting the most likely future, selecting a range of scenarios, bounding the problem, or using a probability distribution function. A case study is used for illustration, in which the effects of climate change on a permafrost dyke of a tailings pond at an Arctic mining operation are assessed. 18 refs., 3 figs

Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Camia, Andrea; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús

2013-04-15

The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest disturbances under climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

2017-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Casper Nyamukondiwa

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Casajus

Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

Utilizing intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity to bolster agricultural and forest productivity under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Aspinwall, Michael J; Loik, Michael E; Resco de Dios, Victor; Tjoelker, Mark G; Payton, Paxton R; Tissue, David T

2015-09-01

Climate change threatens the ability of agriculture and forestry to meet growing global demands for food, fibre and wood products. Information gathered from genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E), which demonstrate intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity (the ability of a genotype to alter its phenotype in response to environmental change), may prove important for bolstering agricultural and forest productivity under climate change. Nonetheless, very few studies have explicitly quantified genotype plasticity-productivity relationships in agriculture or forestry. Here, we conceptualize the importance of intraspecific variation in agricultural and forest species plasticity, and discuss the physiological and genetic factors contributing to intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our discussion highlights the need for an integrated understanding of the mechanisms of G × E, more extensive assessments of genotypic responses to climate change under field conditions, and explicit testing of genotype plasticity-productivity relationships. Ultimately, further investigation of intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity in agriculture and forestry may prove important for identifying genotypes capable of increasing or sustaining productivity under more extreme climatic conditions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest pathogens and diseases under changing climate-A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raza, M. M.; Khan, M. A.; Aslam, H. M. U.; Riaz, K.

2015-01-01

Changing climate threatens tree health by affecting the likelihood, frequency of occurrence, types and severity of forest diseases caused by diverse pests, resultantly altering the forest ecosystems. The present review covers the relationship between climate and diverse cases of forest diseases and potential shocks of climate change on pathogens and diseases. Biotic diseases, cankers, decays, declines, foliar diseases, root diseases and stem rust of pine have been reviewed with some illustrations of potential disease effects with predicted changing climate. The impact of changing climate on host, pathogen, and their interaction will have frequent and mostly unsympathetic outcomes to forest ecosystems. By employing the proactive and modern scientific management strategies like monitoring, modeling prediction, risk rating, planning, genetic diversity and facilitated migration, genetic protection and breeding for disease resistance and relating results to forest policy, planning as well as decision making, the suspicions innate to climate change effects can be minimized. (author)

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Joyce, Linda A; Blate, Geoffrey M; McNulty, Steven G; Millar, Constance I; Moser, Susanne; Neilson, Ronald P; Peterson, David L

2009-12-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Janet L; Chester, Mikhail V

2017-05-15

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

Future PMP Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios and its Changes Cause Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S.; Lee, J.; Okjeong, L.; Bogyeong, C.; Park, M. W.

2015-12-01

In this presentation, Korea's probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) which reflects all of the storm data until recently are calculated, and are compared to the existing PMPs which were calculated at 2000. In Korea, abnormal weather phenomena such as typhoon Rusa and Maemi, and the extreme rainfall event occurred on the east coast of the northern region, that can have a significant impact on the PMP estimation, have frequently happened since 2000. After selecting 240 major storm events from 1973 to 2012, new PMPs are proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2025, 4900, 10000 and 19600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. After estimating future PMPs using future rainfall and dew point temperature information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under climate change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. By separating the changes in PMPs under climate change into the changes caused by rainfall and dew point temperature, the relative impact of future rainfall and dew point temperature information under climate change on future PMPs is quantified. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change' [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

LandCaRe-DSS - model based tools for irrigation management under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dotterweich, Markus; Wilkinson, Kristina; Cassel, Martin; Scherzer, Jörg; Köstner, Barbara; Berg, Michael; Grocholl, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a strong influence on agricultural systems in the future. It will be important for decision makers and stakeholders to assess the impact of climate change at the farm and regional level in order to facilitate and maintain a sustainable and profitable farming infrastructure. Climate change impact studies have to incorporate aspects of uncertainty and the underlying knowledge is constantly expanding and improving. Decision support systems (DSS) with flexible data bases are therefore a useful tool for management and planning: different models can be applied under varying boundary conditions within a conceptual framework and the results can be used e.g. to show the effects of climate change scenarios and different land management options. Within this project, the already existing LandCaRe DSS will be further enhanced and improved. A first prototype had been developed for two regions in eastern Germany, mainly to show the effects of climate change on yields, nutrient balances and farm economy. The new model version will be tested and applied for a region in north-western Germany (Landkreis Uelzen) where arable land makes up about 50% of overall land-use and where 80 % of the arable land is already irrigated. For local decision makers, it will be important to know how water demand and water availability are likely to change in the future: Is more water needed for irrigation? Is more water actually available for irrigation? Will the existing limits for ground water withdrawal be sufficient for farmers to irrigate their crops? How can the irrigation water demand be influenced by land management options like the use of different crops and varieties or different farming and irrigation techniques? The main tasks of the project are (I) the integration of an improved irrigation model, (II) the development of a standardized interface to apply the DSS in different regions, (III) to optimize the graphical user interface, (IV) to transfer and

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

2013-01-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans

2018-01-01

Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate...... climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence....

Electricity versus hydrogen for passenger cars under stringent climate change control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rösler, H.; van der Zwaan, B.; Keppo, I.; Bruggink, J.

2014-01-01

In this article we analyze how passenger car transportation in Europe may change this century under permanent high oil prices and stringent climate control policy. We focus on electricity and hydrogen as principal candidate energy carriers, because these two options are increasingly believed to

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jenouvrier, S.; Holland, M.; Stroeve, J.; Serreze, M.; Barbraud, C.; Weimerskirch, H.; Caswell, H.

2014-01-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2, 3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camilo Mora

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5, suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation. Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Santhome, Sanmohan

2018-01-01

The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991–2010) set of observed...... to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change....

Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggang Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

Biome redistribution under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson

2000-01-01

General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-06-01

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications . The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Modeling transport of nutrients & sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Riverson, John; Coats, Robert; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Dettinger, Mike; Reuter, John; Sahoo, Goloka; Schladow, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.

Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

2017-10-01

Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

[Projection of potential geographic distribution of Apocynum venetum under climate change in northern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui-Feng; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Jia, Xiao-Guang; Li, Xiao-Jin

2017-03-01

Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant, its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month, annual mean air temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate, the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang, in the northern part of Gansu, in the southern part of Neimeng, in the northern part of Ningxia, in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi, in the southern part of Shanxi, in the middle and northern part of Henan, in the middle and southern part of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070, the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

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Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

2012-06-01

Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

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Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

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Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

2015-12-01

Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

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Juan M Requena-Mullor

detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Management Under Anarchy. The International Politics of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, A.

2006-01-01

This article analyzes climate change from the perspective of international politics. In the anarchy of the international system, various cooperation problems have stalled the formation of an effective climate regime at the international level. Obstacles occur at three stages of regime formation: the bargaining stage, the transition stage, and the implementation stage. The importance of the transition stage of cooperation, which takes place between the signing of an agreement and its entry into force, has been overlooked by international relations scholars and is particularly important in the climate case. The article assesses the possibility of applying 'adaptive management' principles to climate change as a partial response to these political obstacles. While such an approach has significant appeal given the uncertainty surrounding the human-climate interface, its experimental, top-down characteristics are not politically feasible at the international level. I recommend certain modifications of existing institutions and practices to improve international information sharing and facilitate efficient learning. These changes would serve to promote a decentralized and passive - and thus politically viable - version of adaptive management, an effective approach to dealing with climate change at the global level

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

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Suchithra Naish

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

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Hartin, C.

2016-02-01

Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

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Mariam Elizbarashvili

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

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Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

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Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Flow variation in Astore river under assumed glaciated extents due to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naeem, U.A.

2012-01-01

Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard. the paper is an effort where the analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100%, 50% and 0% under future climate scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100% reduction in glaciated area were -72%, -15% and-46% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively. (author)

Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

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Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

2016-07-01

Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

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Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-12

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

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Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.; Vries, W. de; Dizengremel, P.; Ernst, D.; Jolivet, Y.; Mikkelsen, T.N.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Le Thiec, D.; Tuovinen, J.-P.

2012-01-01

Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. - Highlights: ► Research needs are identified for forests under climate change and air pollution. ► Abiotic–biotic interactions in response impede tree-ecosystem upscaling. ► Integration of empirical and modelling research is advocated. ► The concept of multi-scale investigations at novel “Supersites” is propagated. ► “Supersites” warrant mechanistic understanding of soil-plant-atmosphere interface. - Forests under climate change and air pollution require empirical and modelling research needs to be integrated at novel “Supersites” through multi-scale investigations.

Financing climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

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Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

Resilience, Regime Shifts, and Guided Transition under Climate Change: Examining the Practical Difficulties of Managing Continually Changing Systems

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Brenda B. Lin

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Managing terrestrial systems has become increasingly difficult under climate change as unidirectional shifts in climate conditions challenge the resilience of ecosystems to maintain their compositional structure and function. Despite the increased attention of resilience management to guide transformational change, questions remain as to how to apply resilience to manage transitions. Rather than pushing systems across thresholds into alternative states, climate change may create a stepwise progression of unknown transitional states that track changing climate conditions. Because of this uncertainty, we must find ways to guide transitioning systems across climate boundaries towards states that are socially and environmentally desirable. We propose to ease the uncertainty of managing shifting systems by providing an approach to adaptive management that we call guided transition, where socially and environmentally important ecosystem functions are preserved through transitions by considering and maintaining the species and structures needed for the desired functions. Scientifically, it will require a better understanding of the relationships between structure, species composition, and function for specific systems. Managers will also need to identify important functions at the local, regional, and national scale, and to determine how best to transition systems to a desired state based on existing scientific knowledge. Guided transition, therefore, helps guide the process of adaptive management by specifying a function-based management pathway that guides transitions through climatic changes.

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

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Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

Denmark's second national communication on climate change. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dissing, L.; Torp, U.; Rasmussen, E.

1997-09-01

At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 more than 150 countries signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. According to decisions taken under article 12 of the Convention each developed country Party shall communicate to the Convention secretariat its second national report presenting inter-alia inventories of emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse related gases. This report represents the Danish programmes and measures taken to observe the commitments under the Climate Convention. The revised 1996 IPCC guidelines have been applied to N 2 O from agriculture and the pollutants not earlier included (SO 2 , HFCs, CFCs and SF 6 ). Background material and data underlying the calculations in the report are available upon request to the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. A very comprehensive and thorough description is given of the programmes and plans for the energy sector with additional information presented in Annexes F and I. The twofold purpose is to give a detailed documentation of how Denmark will meet the ambitious target to reduce the emission of CO 2 by 20% by the year 2005 compared to 1988 and to inspire other Parties to the Convention in efforts to control their present as well as their future emissions of the most important greenhouse gases. (EG) 16 refs

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

Hydrology of a Water‐Limited Forest under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.

Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

2003-10-17

Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae-Kyun Kim

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar

2011-01-01

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura...... 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring...

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

Science.gov (United States)

Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

2009-01-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2004-01-01

Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

Science.gov (United States)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

Science.gov (United States)

Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

2015-04-01

Despite the great progresses of the last century in the agricultural sector and food supply, still about 820 million of people in developing countries are facing food scarcity and malnutrition. More than 180 million children are underweight. Except in Africa, 80 percent of the production gains came from increased yields in major cereal crops. The area cultivated has actually begun to decline in some regions. From now on, however, even Africa, which has always relied on cultivation of new land for production increases, will have to count on yield gains or pay high financial and ecological costs for expansion into areas not yet cultivated. The global scenario is changing fast. The technological, climatic and human-induced factors are creating long-lasting effects on the lives of people and on economic activities around the globe. In particular, climate change and/or variability is exacerbating rural increasing heat stress to natural habitats and human settlements, increasing climatic extremes, including drought and impacting food production. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. These climate change effects are particularly harmful in tropical regions of South America, Africa and South East Asia where food production is feeding a large part of world countries and poses serious risks to global food security in the future. Despite global projected climate change will affect a general decline of

Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

OpenAIRE

Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

2011-01-01

This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2015-01-01

The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

2013-01-01

of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi...

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Babur

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 and compared with the baseline data (1981–2010 to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Micotti

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

Science.gov (United States)

Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-09-01

Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

Modelling the inorganic ocean carbon cycle under past and future climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewan, T.L.

2004-01-01

This study used a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with an inorganic carbon component to examine the inorganic ocean carbon cycle with particular reference to how climate feedback influences future uptake. In the last 150 years, the increase in atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have been higher than any time during the Earth's history. Although the oceans are the largest sink for carbon dioxide, it is not know how the ocean carbon cycle will respond to increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations in the future. Climate feedbacks could potentially reduce further uptake of carbon by the ocean. In addition to examining past climate transitions, including both abrupt and glacial-interglacial climate transitions, this study also examined the sensitivity of the inorganic carbon cycle to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were also projected under a range of global warming scenarios. Most simulations identified a transient weakening of the North Atlantic and increased sea surface temperatures (SST). These positive feedbacks act on the carbon system to reduce uptake. However, the ocean has the capacity to take up 65 to 75 per cent of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide increases. An analysis of climate feedback on future carbon uptake shows that oceans store 7 per cent more carbon when there are no climate feedbacks acting on the system. Sensitivity experiments using the Gent McWilliams parameterization for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies show a further 6 per cent increase in oceanic uptake. Inclusion of sea ice dynamics resulted in a 2 per cent difference in uptake. This study also examined changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration that occur during abrupt climate change events. Changes in ocean circulation and carbon solubility cause significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations when melt water episodes are simulated in both hemispheres. The response of the carbon

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Introducing a New Elementary GLOBE Book on Climate: Supporting Educators and Students in their Understanding of the Concepts Underlying Climate and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Stanitski, D.; Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Taylor, J.; Chambers, L. H.

2016-12-01

Much of the focus on climate literacy in K-12 occurs in middle and high school, where teachers and students can dig into the science in some depth. It is important, however, to introduce this topic at an early age, building on a child's natural curiosity about the world around them - but without overwhelming them with frightening climate change impacts. In some U.S. school systems, a recent focus on standardized testing has crowded out science instruction in order to bring up literacy scores. To give teachers a resource to maintain some science instruction under these conditions, a series of Elementary GLOBE books have been developed. These fictional stories describe sound science and engineering practices that are essential for students to learn the process of science while expanding literacy skills, strongly encouraged in the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). The main concepts developed in a new Elementary GLOBE book on climate, titled "What in the World Is Happening to Our Climate?", will be introduced in this presentation. This book complements six other Earth System Science modules within the Elementary GLOBE curriculum and is freely available on the GLOBE website (www.globe.gov/elementaryglobe). The book discusses the concept that climate is changing in different ways and places around the world, and what happens to the climate in one place affects other locations across the globe. Supporting ideas clarify the difference between weather and climate, introduce climate science concepts, reveal the impacts of sea level rise, and help students understand that, while humans are contributing to climate change, they can also participate in solutions that address this challenge. Accompanying teacher's notes and companion classroom activities will be described to help elementary school teachers understand how to approach the subject of climate change with their students.

Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

Science.gov (United States)

Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

2014-05-01

Most of the climate models projections for the Mediterranean basin have showed that the region will likely to experience a general tendency towards drier climate conditions with decreases in total precipitation, increases in temperature, alterations in the rainfall extreme events and droughts frequency (IPCC, 2007; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; López-Moreno et al., 2011). The region is already suffering from water resources scarcity and vulnerability which are expected to amplify in the next century (Ludwig et al., 2011; Schneider et al., 2013). Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Mediterranean catchments is with a major concern not only to scientist but also to water resources policy makers and general public. However, most of the climate change impact studies focus on the flow regime on global or regional scale rather than on the catchment scale which is more useful and more appropriate to guide practical mitigation and adaptation policy. This is because hydro-climate modeling at the local scale is confronted to the variability in climate, topography, geology, lack of observations and anthropogenic activities within the catchment. Furthermore, it is well recognized that hydrological and climate models forecasts are always affected with uncertainty making the assessment of climate change impact on Mediterranean catchment hydrology more challenging. This work aims to assess the impact of climate change on a Mediterranean catchment located in North Africa (the Chiba catchment in northeast Tunisia) through a conjunctive use of physically based hydrological model (SWAT) driven with four climate models*. Quantification of the impact of climate change has been conducted by means of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (Richter et al., 1996) which are also ecologically meaningful. By comparing changes in these indicators in the reference period (1971-2000) to the projected ones in the future (2041-2070), it was possible to draw

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-12-11

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

Science.gov (United States)

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

2015-01-01

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

2002-01-01

Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

On the macro-economic impacts of climate change under informational failures

OpenAIRE

CAO, Ruixuan; Gohin, Alexandre

2012-01-01

Although the sources, extent and physical impacts of the future climate change are highly uncertain, available dynamic economic assessments implicitly assume that economic agents perfectly know them. Perfect foresight, rational expectations or active learning are standard assumptions underlying simulated results. To the contrary, this paper builds on the assumption that economic agents may suffer for a while from limited knowledge about the average and variability of physical impa...

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. P. Miller

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC using the National Weather Service (NWS River Forecasting System (RFS hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8

General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

2015-01-01

While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

Emergent reorganization of an evolving experimental landscape under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2014-12-01

Understanding landscape re-organization under changing climatic forcing is fundamental to advancing our understanding of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations, and interpreting the stratigraphic record for past climates by incorporating possible regime shifts. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (for a constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. By studying the space-time structure of the individual erosional and depositional events in terms of their size, location, clustering, and total volume we report complex space-time patterns of change which are scale-dependent and bounded by the river network topology. At the same time, the river network topology itself adjusts at smaller scales, with new channels added to accommodate increased hillslope erosional transport, further adjusting the landscape. Some new ideas related to landscape variability and entropy evolution at different scales during steady and transient states and the possibility of analyzing the self-organization with Optimal Mass Transport (OMT) metrics to infer possible underlying "optimality" principles governing the re-organization will also be presented.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

2015-02-01

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lamichhane, Jay Ram; Barzman, Marco; Booij, Kees

2015-01-01

) and the severity of their outbreaks. Increasing concerns over health and the environment as well as new legislation on pesticide use, particularly in the European Union, urge us to find sustainable alternatives to pesticide-based pest management. Here, we review the effect of climate change on crop protection......Agriculture in the twenty-first century faces the challenge of meeting food demands while satisfying sustainability goals. The challenge is further complicated by climate change which affects the distribution of crop pests (intended as insects, plants, and pathogenic agents injurious to crops...... and propose strategies to reduce the impact of future invasive as well as rapidly evolving resident populations. The major points are the following: (1) the main consequence of climate change and globalization is a heightened level of unpredictability of spatial and temporal interactions between weather...

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie; Copping, Andrea E.

2015-04-01

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.

National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

2006-12-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

2009-01-01

Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelli L. Larson

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Zabel

Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, J. S.

2011-12-01

The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

Probability of climatic change. Identification of key questions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fransen, W.

1995-01-01

Addressing the question what the probability is of an anthropogenically induced change in the climate, leads to a number of other, underlying questions. These questions, which deal with the characteristics of climate, of climatic change, and of probabilistic statements on climatic change, should be addressed first. The long-term objective of the underlying study, i.e. a quantitative assessment of the risks and opportunities of the predicted climatic change, sets the context against which of those questions should be answered. In addition, this context induces extra questions, i.e. about the characteristics of risk

Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

2012-04-01

Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

Greenland climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

2012-01-01

Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

2017-01-01

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Argüeso

Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

2014-01-01

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald

2013-01-01

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even...... variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation...... on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change....

Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Chih Lin

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Tree species in mountainous areas are expected to shift their distribution upward in elevation in response to climate change, calling for a potential redesign of existing protected areas. This study aims to predict whether or not the distributions of two high-mountain tree species, Abies (Abies kawakamii and Tsuga (Tsuga chinensis var. formosana, will significantly shift upward due to temperature change, and whether current protected areas will be suitable for conserving these species. Future temperature change was projected for 15 different future scenarios produced from five global climate models. Shifts in Abies and Tsuga distributions were then predicted through the use of species distribution models (SDMs which included occurrence data of Abies and Tsuga, as well as seasonal temperature, and elevation. The 25 km × 25 km downscaled General Circulation Model (GCMs data for 2020–2039 produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform was adopted in this study. Habitat suitability in the study area was calculated using maximum entropy model under different climatic scenarios. A bootstrap method was applied to assess the parameter uncertainty of the maximum entropy model. In comparison to the baseline projection, we found that there are significant differences in suitable habitat distributions for Abies and Tsuga under seven of the 15 scenarios. The results suggest that mountainous ecosystems will be substantially impacted by climate change. We also found that the uncertainty originating from GCMs and the parameters of the SDM contribute most to the overall level of variability in species distributions. Finally, based on the uncertainty analysis and the shift in habitat suitability, we applied systematic conservation planning approaches to identify suitable areas to add to Taiwan’s protected area network.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

Climate change and forest disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

2001-01-01

This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

The limit of irrigation adaption due to the inter-crop conflict of water use under changing climate and landuse

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Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Kotoku, M.; Sakurai, G.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider variations in the availability of irrigation water under changing climate and land use. Therefore, we assess the potential effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change by using a large-scale crop-river coupled model, CROVER [Okada et al. 2015, JAMES]. The CROVER model simulates the large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycle and crop growth depending on climate, soil properties, landuse, crop cultivation management, socio-economic water demand, and reservoir operation management. The bias-corrected GCMs outputs under the RCP 8.5 scenario were used. The future expansion of irrigation area was estimated by using the extrapolation method based on the historical change in irrigated and rainfed areas. As the results, the irrigation adaptation has only a limited effect on the rice production in East Asia due to the conflict of water use for irrigation with the other crops, whose farmlands require unsustainable water extraction with the excessively expanding irrigated area. In contrast, the irrigation adaptation benefits maize production in Europe due to the little conflict of water use for irrigation. Our findings suggest the importance of simulating the river water availability and crop production in a single model for the more realistic assessment in the irrigation adaptation potential effects of crop production under changing climate and land use.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

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Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently

Different intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms between two Mediterranean trees under a climate change scenario.

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Gimeno, Teresa E; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2015-01-01

In harsh environments facilitation alleviates biotic and abiotic constraints on tree recruitment. Under ongoing drier climate change, we expect facilitation to increase as a driver of coexistence. However, this might not hold under extreme abiotic stress and when the outcome depends on the interaction with other drivers such as altered herbivore pressure due to land use change. We performed a field water-manipulation experiment to quantify the importance of facilitation in two coexisting Mediterranean trees (dominant Juniperus thurifera and coexisting Quercus ilex subsp. ballota) under a climate change scenario. Shifts in canopy dominance favouring Q. ilex could be based on the extension of heterospecific facilitation to the detriment of conspecific alleviation. We found that saplings of both species transplanted under the canopy of nurse trees had greater survival probability, growth and photochemical efficiency. Intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms differed: alleviation of abiotic stress benefited both species during summer and J. thurifera during winter, whereas browsing protection was relevant only for Q. ilex. Facilitation was greater under the dry treatment only for Q. ilex, which partially agreed with the predictions of the stress gradient hypothesis. We conclude that present rainfall availability limits neither J. thurifera nor Q. ilex establishment. Nevertheless, under current global change scenarios, imposing increasing abiotic stress together with altered herbivore browsing, nurse trees could differentially facilitate the establishment of Q. ilex due to species-specific traits, i.e. palatability; drought, heat and cold tolerance, underlying species differences in the facilitation mechanisms and eventually triggering a change from pure juniper woodlands to mixed formations.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

2017-11-01

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at

Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change. A Case Study in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); McCluskey, M. [CDM, Inc., Denver, Colorado (United States); Vogel, R. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); Strzepek, K. [Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, and Environment and Behavior Program, Institute for Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309 (United States)

2005-02-01

Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.

Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

Science.gov (United States)

Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

2014-01-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

Developing Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF Curves under Climate Change Uncertainty: The Case of Bangkok, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashish Shrestha

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The magnitude and frequency of hydrological events are expected to increase in coming years due to climate change in megacities of Asia. Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF curves represent essential means to study effects on the performance of drainage systems. Therefore, the need for updating IDF curves comes from the necessity to gain better understanding of climate change effects. The present paper explores an approach based on spatial downscaling-temporal disaggregation method (DDM to develop future IDFs using stochastic weather generator, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG and the rainfall disaggregation tool, Hyetos. The work was carried out for the case of Bangkok, Thailand. The application of LARS-WG to project extreme rainfalls showed promising results and nine global climate models (GCMs were used to estimate changes in IDF characteristics for future time periods of 2011–2030 and 2046–2065 under climate change scenarios. The IDFs derived from this approach were corrected using higher order equation to mitigate biases. IDFs from all GCMs showed increasing intensities in the future for all return periods. The work presented demonstrates the potential of this approach in projecting future climate scenarios for urban catchment where long term hourly rainfall data are not readily available.

Water access, water scarcity, and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukheibir, Pierre

2010-05-01

This article investigates the approaches of the various discourses operating in the water sector and how they address the issues of scarcity and equitable access under projected climate change impacts. Little synergy exists between the different approaches dealing with these issues. Whilst being a sustainable development and water resources management issue, a holistic view of access, scarcity and the projected impacts of climate change is not prevalent in these discourses. The climate change discourse too does not adequately bridge the gap between these issues. The projected impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problems of scarcity and equitable access unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted and resilience is built. The successful delivery of accessible water services under projected climate change impacts therefore lies with an extension of the adaptive water management approach to include equitable access as a key driver.

Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Ningning [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Yasunari, Tetsuzo [Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan); Ohta, Takeshi, E-mail: zhangningning@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Study Consortium for Earth-Life Interactive Systems (SELIS) of Nagoya University, Nagoya (Japan)

2011-04-15

Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ningning; Yasunari, Tetsuzo; Ohta, Takeshi

2011-01-01

Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

Technology Transfer and Climate Change: Additional Considerations for Implementation under the UNFCCC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Sullivan

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Technology transfer is recognised as playing a central and critical role in the global response to climate change, as embodied in the Unite Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. However, technology transfer is a complex process, and despite numerous attempts to prescribe approaches to optimisation, there remain serious obstacles to its effective operation. The breadth of technologies and range of would-be recipient territories under the climate change regime serve to complicate things even further. Against this background, the Expert Group on Technology Transfer have produced a robust Strategy, which it will now fall to the Technology Mechanism announced in Cancun to implement. However, despite the rigour with which the technology transfer strategy was produced, it is never possible to cover all possible eventualities. It is on this basis that this article presents a number of tactical and strategic issues which may merit further consideration as the implementation process moves forward. At the operational level, such issues include a possible role for a centralised or regional technology procurement effort, the need for greater emphasis on sectoral specific approaches to technology transfer, and a pragmatic approach to reducing the impact of some barriers to transactions by the expedient use of insurance to reduce risk, as opposed to the longer term approach of international standardisation. At the strategic level, there are major issues with regard to prioritisation of resources applied to technology transfer, and in particular the resolution of the tensions existing between achieving sustainable development and the time critical need to achieve climate stabilisation.

U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2006-01-01

.... climate change research and development activities. Under this new structure, climate change science and climate-related technology research programs are integrated to an extent not seen previously...

Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ehsani, Nima; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

2017-12-01

Observed changes in precipitation patterns, rising surface temperature, increases in frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, widespread melting of ice, and reduced snow cover are some of the documented hydrologic changes associated with global climate change. Climate change is therefore expected to affect the water supply-demand balance in the Northeast United States and challenge existing water management strategies. The hydrological implications of future climate will affect the design capacity and operating characteristics of dams. The vulnerability of water resources systems to floods and droughts will increase, and the trade-offs between reservoir releases to maintain flood control storage, drought resilience, ecological flow, human water demand, and energy production should be reconsidered. We used a Neural Networks based General Reservoir Operation Scheme to estimate the implications of climate change for dams on a regional scale. This dynamic daily reservoir module automatically adapts to changes in climate and re-adjusts the operation of dams based on water storage level, timing, and magnitude of incoming flows. Our findings suggest that the importance of dams in providing water security in the region will increase. We create an indicator of the Effective Degree of Regulation (EDR) by dams on water resources and show that it is expected to increase, particularly during drier months of year, simply as a consequence of projected climate change. The results also indicate that increasing the size and number of dams, in addition to modifying their operations, may become necessary to offset the vulnerabilities of water resources systems to future climate uncertainties. This is the case even without considering the likely increase in future water demand, especially in the most densely populated regions of the Northeast.

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-01-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision...... crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two...

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

2017-03-14

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

2018-01-01

Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

Climate change and agriculture in Denmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olesen, J.E.

2001-01-01

This chapter reviews the current knowledge on effects of climate change on agriculture in Denmark, and the contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark. The chapter also considers the possibilities of Danish agriculture to adapt to changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The relations to other aspects of global change are discussed, including liberalisation of world markets and changes in land use. Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century depending on socioeconomic development. Winter rainfall may increase up to 20%. This implies a wide range of possible consequences. Agricultural productivity may be expected to increase under increasing temperature and increasing CO 2 concentration. Highter temperatures will increase the risk of pests and deseases. Warming in association with increased winter rainfall will also increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Climate change may thus be expected to reinforce the current trends in Danish agriculture of declining cattle population and increasing pig and cereal production. Apart from an anticipated continued decline in total agricultural area, land use will probably not be greatly affected. The current environmental regulation in Denmark aims at reducing pesticide use and nitrogen losses from agriculture. Some of the regulations are very detailed and directly regulate farming practices in a manner that may not provide the most cost-effective mechanism under a changed climate. Some of these existing rigid frameworks for environmental regulation should thus be substituted by more flexible goal-oriented environmental protection strategies, in order to ensure sustainability of farming under global climate change. (LN)

Adaptability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprague, M.W.

1991-01-01

The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under 4 climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simioni, G.; Ritson, P.; McGrath, J.; Dumbrell, I.; Copeland, B.

2009-01-01

The future stem wood production and net ecosystem production of Pinus radiata plantations in southwestern Australia were estimated in this modelling study, which was conducted in order to determine the potential effects of anticipated severe rainfall reductions in the region. Four climate change and emission scenarios were considered as well as simulations of the present climate. Results of the study showed that stem wood production and NEP were not significantly influenced by moderate changes in temperature. However, stem wood production and NEP decreased significantly under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios. Results of the study suggested that a trade-off between the positive effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on plant and water use efficiency and the negative impacts of decreased rainfall and increased temperatures. Changes in heterotrophic respiration lagged behind changes in plant growth. It was concluded that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential will require modelling tools capable of characterizing interactions between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, as well as the potential range of climate change scenarios. 53 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongjun Jiang

Full Text Available Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070. The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.

The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

2018-06-18

Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

Optimization of annual energy demand in office buildings under the influence of climate change in Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis; Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A.

2016-01-01

Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized. - Highlights: • Forecast of 9 Chilean climate zones under Greenhouse Gases Scenario A2. • Influence of envelope and form on future energy demand in office buildings. • Multiple iterations on Form Ratio (FR) and Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR). • Optimization in early stages of design considering global warming.

Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

OpenAIRE

Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

2013-01-01

Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquati...

Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

2017-12-01

Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

OpenAIRE

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E.

2017-01-01

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large

Challenging conflicting discourses of climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fleming, Aysha; Vanclay, Frank; Hiller, Claire; Wilson, Stephen

2014-01-01

The influence of language on communication about climate change is well recognised, but this understanding is under-utilised by those seeking to increase uptake of action for climate change. We discuss the terms, discourse, resistance, and agency, to assist in developing ways to progress social

Maize growth and yield in Peshawar under changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, A.; Akmal, M.; Asim, M.

2012-01-01

Global climate change is consequence of accumulating greenhouse gases (Carbon) at lower atmosphere which might affects crops growth and yield. Maize is an important summer cereals, grown on considerable area in Pakistan every year. We, therefore, study the delay sowing response with changing climate on maize. Field experiment was conducted at Agronomy Research Farm, Agricultural University Peshawar, Pakistan in a randomized complete block design. Sowing was done from June 8 to July 24, 2010 with ten days intervals. Mazie (cv. Azam) was planted in rows at 0.75 m distance in NS orientations. Crop was raised under the uniform recommended cultural practices. Data regarding days to emergence, tasseling and maturity showed a consecutive decrease when so wing was delayed form June 08 onwards. However, the crop life cycle (i.e. vegetative and reproductive durations) initially remained uniform but expanded for late sowing dates (July). Delay sowing showed an increase in the leaf area index with an abrupt decline for the late sown crop. Nonetheless, plant stand at harvest remained static during the growth for all sowing dates. A stable to moderate reduction was noticed in ear length (cm) when sowings was delayed from Jun 08 onwards. Grain rows cob/-1 did not influence by the delay sowing in the season. Moreover, delay sowing did not show any significant (P<0.05) change for the grain number. However, thousand grains weight was initially remained stable but declined (P<0.05) by delay in sowing. Biological yield, dry matter and grains yield (g m/sup -2/) revealed almost a similar decreasing trend when sowing was delayed. Dry matter to grain yield relationship was linear (r/sup 2/ = 0.95) and revealed a mean loss of 1.65 g m/sup 2/ when sowing delayed from June 08 to July 24 in the season. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), the growth function, was also declined by the delay in sowing. We inferred that losses in leaf area indices, ear length and grain weights were basis of the

Projected and Observed Aridity and Climate Change in the East Coast of South India under RCP 4.5

Science.gov (United States)

Ramachandran, A.; Praveen, Dhanya; Jaganathan, R.; Palanivelu, K.

2015-01-01

In the purview of global warming, the present study attempts to project changes in climate and quantify the changes in aridity of two coastal districts in south India under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. Projected climate change output generated by RegCM 4.4 model, pertaining to 14 grid points located within the study area, was analyzed and processed for this purpose. The meteorological parameters temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index, to assess the spatial distribution of aridity. The original index values ranged from 13.7 to 16.4 mm/°C, characterizing this area as a semidry climate. The outcome from the changed scenario analysis under RCP 4.5 showed that, during the end of the 21st century, the aridity may be increased more as the index values tend to reduce. The increasing trend in the drying phenomenon may be attributed to the rising of mean annual temperatures. PMID:26771002

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Queirós, Ana M.; Huebert, Klaus B.; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A.; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Austen, Melanie C.; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F.; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A.

2016-01-01

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean
acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies

Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ceccato, P.

2015-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

Ground Water and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike;

Mass balance gradients and climatic change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oerlemans, J.; Hoogendoorn, N.C.

1989-01-01

It is generally assumed that the mass-balance gradient on glaciers is more or less conserved under climatic change. In studies of the dynamic response of glaciers to climatic change, one of the following assumptions is normally made: (i) the mass-balance perturbation is independent of altitude

Contrasting model complexity under a changing climate in a headwaters catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, L.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Alpine, snowmelt-dominated catchments are the source of water for more than 1/6th of the world's population. These catchments are topographically complex, leading to steep weather gradients and nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Recent evidence suggests that alpine systems are more sensitive to climate warming, but these regions are vastly simplified in climate models and operational water management tools due to computational limitations. Simultaneously, point-scale observations are often extrapolated to larger regions where feedbacks can both exacerbate or mitigate locally observed changes. It is critical to determine whether projected climate impacts are robust to different methodologies, including model complexity. Using high performance computing and an integrated model of a representative headwater catchment we determined the hydrologic response from 30 projected climate changes to precipitation, temperature and vegetation for the Rocky Mountains. Simulations were run with 100m and 1km resolution, and with and without lateral subsurface flow in order to vary model complexity. We found that model complexity alters nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Higher-resolution models predicted larger changes per degree of temperature increase than lower resolution models, suggesting that reductions to snowpack, surface water, and groundwater due to warming may be underestimated in simple models. Increases in temperature were found to have a larger impact on water fluxes and stores than changes in precipitation, corroborating previous research showing that mountain systems are significantly more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation changes and that increases in winter precipitation are unlikely to compensate for increased evapotranspiration in a higher energy environment. These numerical experiments help to (1) bracket the range of uncertainty in published literature of climate change impacts on headwater

Under pressure: Climate change, upwelling and eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marisol eGarcía-Reyes

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS, stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., winds to whales studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected Communities of Lusaka ... This research was aimed at surveying perceptions of climate change and ... This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.

2018-04-01

Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.

Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

2016-04-21

The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

Capturing spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, U.; Fan, Z.; Jastrow, J. D.; Matamala, R.; Vitharana, U.

2015-12-01

The spatial heterogeneity of the land surface affects water, energy, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Designing observation networks that capture land surface spatial heterogeneity is a critical scientific challenge. Here, we present a geospatial approach to capture the existing spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across Alaska, USA. We used the standard deviation of 556 georeferenced SOC profiles previously compiled in Mishra and Riley (2015, Biogeosciences, 12:3993-4004) to calculate the number of observations that would be needed to reliably estimate Alaskan SOC stocks. This analysis indicated that 906 randomly distributed observation sites would be needed to quantify the mean value of SOC stocks across Alaska at a confidence interval of ± 5 kg m-2. We then used soil-forming factors (climate, topography, land cover types, surficial geology) to identify the locations of appropriately distributed observation sites by using the conditioned Latin hypercube sampling approach. Spatial correlation and variogram analyses demonstrated that the spatial structures of soil-forming factors were adequately represented by these 906 sites. Using the spatial correlation length of existing SOC observations, we identified 484 new observation sites would be needed to provide the best estimate of the present status of SOC stocks in Alaska. We then used average decadal projections (2020-2099) of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to investigate whether the location of identified observation sites will shift/change under future climate. Our results showed 12-41 additional observation sites (depending on emission scenarios) will be required to capture the impact of projected climatic conditions by 2100 on the spatial heterogeneity of Alaskan SOC stocks. Our results represent an ideal distribution

Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

2013-12-01

Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

2011-01-01

Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2015-01-01

) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty......Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief...

Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sulin Tao

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

Wetlands Retention and Optimal Management of Waterfowl Habitat under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Withey, P.; Kooten, van G.C.

2014-01-01

We develop a positive mathematical programming model to investigate the impact of climate change on land use in the prairie pothole region of western Canada, with particular focus on wetlands retention. We examine the effect of climate change and biofuel policies that are implemented to mitigate

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

Science.gov (United States)

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Zanin

Full Text Available Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Estimation of Crop Coefficient of Corn (Kccorn under Climate Change Scenarios Using Data Mining Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kampanad Bhaktikul

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main objectives of this study are to determine the crop coefficient of corn (Kccorn using data mining technique under climate change scenarios, and to develop the guidelines for future water management based on climate change scenarios. Variables including date, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from seven meteorological stations during 1991 to 2000 were used. Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM was applied for data collection and analyses. The procedures compose of investigation of input data, model set up using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, model evaluation, and finally estimation of the Kccorn. Three climate change scenarios of carbon dioxide (CO2 concentration level: 360 ppm, 540 ppm, and 720 ppm were set. The results indicated that the best number of node of input layer - hidden layer - output layer was 7-13-1. The correlation coefficient of model was 0.99. The predicted Kccorn revealed that evapotranspiration (ETcorn pattern will be changed significantly upon CO2 concentration level. From the model predictions, ETcorn will be decreased 3.34% when CO2 increased from 360 ppm to 540 ppm. For the double CO2 concentration from 360 ppm to 720 ppm, ETcorn will be increased 16.13%. The future water management guidelines to cope with the climate change are suggested.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

Science.gov (United States)

Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

2016-04-01

According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wardekker, J.A.

2011-01-01

Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

2015-07-01

Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

2017-04-01

Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

2016-01-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Knowledge update in adaptive management of forest resources under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Meilby, Henrik

2014-01-01

trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability. Methods...

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

Countermeasures for heat damage in rice grain quality under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Morita

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been an increasingly significant factor behind fluctuations in the yield and quality of rice (Oryza sativa L., particularly regarding chalky (white-back, basal-white, and milky-white grain, immature thin grain, and cracked grain. The development and use of heat-tolerant varieties is an effective way to reduce each type of grain damage based on the existence of each varietal difference. Cultivation methods that increase the available assimilate supply per grain, such as deep-flood irrigation, are effective for diminishing the occurrence of milky-white grains under high temperature and low solar radiation conditions. The application of sufficient nitrogen during the reproductive stage is important to reduce the occurrence of most heat damage with the exception of milky-white grain. In regard to developing measures for heat-induced poor palatability of cooked rice, a sensory parameter, the hardness/adhesion ratio may be useful as an indicator of palatability within a relatively wide air–temperature range during ripening. Methods for heat damage to rice can be classified as either avoidance or tolerance measures. The timing of the measures is further divided into preventive and prompt types. The use of heat-tolerant varieties and late transplanting are preventive measures, whereas the application of sufficient nitrogen as a top dressing and irrigation techniques during the reproductive stage are prompt types which may function to lower the canopy temperature by enhancing evapotranspiration. Trials combining the different types of techniques will contribute towards obtaining more efficient and steady countermeasures against heat damage under conditions of climate change.

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

2009-01-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer......Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources...... of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM......), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely...

Managing time in a changing world: Timing of avian annual cycle stages under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tomotani, B.M.

2017-01-01

Animals need to time their seasonal activities such as breeding and migration to occur at the right time. They use cues from the environment to predict changes and organise their activities accordingly. What happens, then, when climate change interferes with this ability to make predictions? Climate

The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Atreya, Kishor

2017-12-01

The possible disruption of climate change (CC) on the ecological, economic and social segments of human interest has made this phenomenon a major issue over the last couple of decades. Mountains are fragile ecosystems, projected to endure a higher impact from the increased warming. This study presents modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability for the growth of nine near-treeline plant species of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau through niche modelling technique using CLIMEX and estimates their potential future distribution and the extent of greening in the region. Two global climate models, CSIRO-MK 3.0 (CS) and MIROCH-H (MR) were used under IPCC A1B and A2 emission scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that climatic suitability of the nine species expands towards higher elevations into areas that are currently unsuitable while currently suitable areas in many regions become climatically unsuitable in the future. The total climatically suitable area for the nine species at current time is around 1.09 million km2, with an additional 0.68 and 0.35 million km2 becoming suitable by 2050 and 2100 respectively. High elevation belts, especially those lying above 3500 m, will see more climatically suitable areas for the nine species in the future. Cold stress is the main factor limiting current distribution and its decrease will affect the overall expansion of climatic suitability in the region. Impacts on nature conservation and water and food security could be expected from such shift of climatic suitability in the region. The species includes (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga dumosa, (vii) Rhododendron campanulatum, (viii) Ephedra gerardiana, and (ix) Cassiope fastigiata. The species list from top to bottom are (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

2010-01-01

This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Biotic and Biogeochemical Feedbacks to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

2002-12-01

Feedbacks to paleoclimate change are evident in ice core records showing correlations of temperature with carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Such feedbacks may be explained by plant and microbial responses to climate change, and are likely to occur under impending climate warming, as evidenced by results of ecosystem climate manipulation experiments and biometeorological observations along ecological and climate gradients. Ecosystems exert considerable influence on climate, by controlling the energy and water balance of the land surface as well as being sinks and sources of greenhouse gases. This presentation will focus on biotic and biogeochemical climate feedbacks on decadal to century time scales, emphasizing carbon storage and energy exchange. In addition to the direct effects of climate on decomposition rates and of climate and CO2 on plant productivity, climate change can alter species composition; because plant species differ in their surface properties, productivity, phenology, and chemistry, climate-induced changes in plant species composition can exert a large influence on the magnitude and sign of climate feedbacks. We discuss the effects of plant species on ecosystem carbon storage that result from characteristic differences in plant biomass and lifetime, allocation to roots vs. leaves, litter quality, microclimate for decomposition and the ultimate stabilization of soil organic matter. We compare the effect of species transitions on transpiration, albedo, and other surface properties, with the effect of elevated CO2 and warming on single species' surface exchange. Global change models and experiments that investigate the effect of climate only on existing vegetation may miss the biggest impacts of climate change on biogeochemical cycling and feedbacks. Quantification of feedbacks will require understanding how species composition and long-term soil processes will change under global warming. Although no single approach, be it experimental

Assessing potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of three reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin under ensemble of climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2015-04-01

The Tagus River basin is an important strategic water and energy source for Portugal and Spain. With an extensive network of 40 reservoirs with more than 15 hm3 capacity and numerous abstraction channels it is ensuring water supply for domestic and industrial usage, irrigation and hydropower production in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over-regulation and construction of new dams, and large inter-basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate and aridity of the catchment have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge, dropping during some months to zero in some parts of the catchment, is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further. As the water inflow is a fundamental defining factor in a reservoir operation and hydropower production, the latter are highly sensitive to shifts in water balance of the catchment, and hence to changes in climate. In this study we aim to investigate the effects of projected climate change on water inflows and hydropower generation of the three large reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin, and by that to assess their ability to cover electricity power demands and provide water supply under changed conditions, assuming present management strategies; hydropower and abstraction demands. The catchment scale, process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was set up, calibrated and validated up to the Santarem gauge at the Tagus outlet, with the implementation of a reservoir module. The reservoir module is able to represent three reservoir operation management options, simulate water abstraction and provide rates of generated hydropower. In total, fifteen largest reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin were included in the model, calibrated and validated against observed inflow, stored water and outflow water volumes. The future climate projections were selected from the

Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

2011-01-01

This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Juliá

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

Significant reductions in oil quality and lipid content of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Namazkar, Shahla; Egsgaard, Helge; Frenck, Georg

2015-01-01

Despite of the potential importance to food and bioenergy purposes, effects from climate change on plant oil quality have hardly been characterized.On a global basis Brassica napus L., rapeseed or oilseed rape, is the second largest source of vegetable oil after soybean and the predominant oil crop...... in Europe. We found significant changes in oil quality and quantity of four cultivars of oilseed rape grown in five future climate scenarios with elevated [CO2], [O-3] temperature and combinations hereof (similar to RCP8.5,(1)). Populations of the cultivars were grown under ambient and climate change...... conditions in a climate-phytotron. The treatments were ambient (360 ppm CO2, 19/12 degrees C (day/night), 20/20 ppb O-3 (day/night)), all factors elevated (650 ppm CO2, 24/17 degrees C, 60/20 ppb O-3), as well as two- and single-factor treatments with the elevated factors.The overall trend was that oil...

Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen

2013-01-01

The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...... the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen...

Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

2014-01-01

The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. Methods After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5 and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005 to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Results Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005, heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

The World Bank and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shih, W.-C.

2000-01-01

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is inextricably linked with economic and development policies. This raises the question, to what extent do the commitments to reduce carbon dioxide emissions under the Climate Change Convention affect the practices and policies of the World Bank? After briefly describing the interaction between climate change and economic development, as well as the respective instruments of the Climate Change Treaty and the World Bank, this paper identifies several windows through which the obligations set out by the Climate Change treaty affect the World Bank. These include the Global Environmentally Facility, the Operational Policies adopted by the Executive Directors of the World Bank, specific loan structures and conditions as well as the recent Prototype Carbon Fund. (Author)

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

2018-03-01

Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gh. Ghandhari

2017-01-01

the surface level, from regional-scale atmospheric variables that are provided by AOGCMs. Four different downscaling methods exist: regression methods, weather pattern-based approaches, stochastic weather generators, which are all statistical downscaling methods, and limited-area modeling. For this research, HadCM3 and statistical downscaling model (SDSM, precipitation and temperature variations were simulated under A2 scenario. Then the impacts of these variations on Bar River discharge were analyzed, i.e. water resources at three sectors of agriculture, industrial and potable water under climate change during 2011-2040 using WEAP. Results at first part of simulation showed that temperature is increasing and precipitation is decreasing resulted in decreasing of Bar discharge. According to the decreasing on Bar discharge, water allocation was simulated under these conditions of agricultural and industrial development and increasing of population with WEAP. Simulation showed that watershed will face increasing of water demand for all three sectors; agriculture, industry and drinking water, so the highest water shortage would be in agricultural demand and then industry and drinking water respectively. IWRM is the basic managerial need to rest the demands especially for drought periods. Current allocation process is based on steady state conditions while allocation pattern would be done under climate change conditions so we need to be reinvestigat the last allocations for all three sectors. Another challenge for this watershed refers to the gardens and steel factory of Khorasan that they need to use new technologies for reduction of their water needs. Results Discussion: In this study, the outputs of General Circulation Models (HadCM3 and statistical downscaling model (SDSM have been used to investigate the changes of rainfall and temperature under A2 scenario in Bar river basin of Neishaboor and assess the impacts of this changes on the Bar river’s discharge. Finally

Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

2014-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

Phenological Shifts in Animals Under Contemporary Climate Change