WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying change framework

  1. Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Sellers

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.

  2. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  3. Denmark's forth national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The Kingdom of Denmark comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified on behalf of all three parts. This report is Denmark's Fourth Climate Communication under the Climate Convention. Since Denmark's ratification covers the entire Realm, the report includes information on Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The report is organised in accordance with the guidelines for national communications adopted by the parties to the Climate Convention. (BA)

  4. A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

    2014-01-01

    The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

  5. Denmark's National Inventory Reports. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Winther, M.; Rasmussen, E.

    2000-01-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2000. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years from 1990 to 1998 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , CO, NMVOC, SO 2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF. (au)

  6. France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

  7. Denmark's forth national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The Kingdom of Denmark comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified on behalf of all three parts. This report is Denmark's Fourth Climate Communication under the Climate Convention. Since Denmark's ratification covers the entire Realm, the report includes information on Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The report is organised in accordance with the guidelines for national communications adopted by the parties to the Climate Convention. (BA)

  8. The precautionary principle in fisheries management under climate change: How the international legal framework formulate it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifah, E.; Imanullah, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    One of the objectives of fisheries management is to reach long-term sustainable benefits of the fish stocks while reducing the risk of severe or irreversible damage to the marine ecosystem. Achieving this objective needs, the good scientific knowledge and understanding on fisheries management including scientific data and information on the fish stock, fishing catch, distribution, migration, the proportion of mature fish, the mortality rate, reproduction as well as the knowledge on the impact of fishing on dependent and associated species and other species belonging to the same ecosystem, and further the impact of climate change and climate variability on the fish stocks and marine ecosystem. Lack of this scientific knowledge may lead to high levels of uncertainty. The precautionary principle is one of the basic environmental principles needed in overcoming this problem. An essence of this principle is that, in facing the serious risk as a result of the limited scientific knowledge or the absence of complete evidence of harm, it should not prevent the precautionary measures in minimizing risks and protecting the fish stocks and ecosystem. This study aims to examine how the precautionary principle in fisheries management be formulated into the international legal framework, especially under the climate change framework.

  9. Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

    Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

  10. Sweden's third national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Sweden's national communication to the UN Convention on Climate Change describes everything about the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases, the motives and forces behind emissions, and official Swedish climate policies. Every five years, Sweden submits a communication on practical climate efforts in Sweden to the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Swedish Environmental Protection Board has coordinated the work of producing the basic documentation for the communication, which also describes the measures already taken and those planned for the future. In addition, scenarios have been adopted for developments in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden's vulnerability and Swedish research into the climate and climate change

  11. Canada's national report on climate change: Actions to meet commitments under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, countries must adopt measures to mitigate climate change, adapt to its possible effects, increase public awareness and scientific understanding of climate change and possible responses, and work together in all of these areas. A review is provided of action being currently taken by Canadian governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, and the private sector to meet domestic and international climate change commitments. Projections indicate that climate change could result in significant changes to many of Canada's natural ecosystems, with equally significant economic and social consequences. Canadian demand for energy is the chief cause of Canada's man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. As a first step in meeting its commitment, Canada is developing and implementing measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mainly in the area of energy efficiency, energy conservation, and switching to energy sources that are less carbon-intensive. Progress in limiting such emissions will be assessed via emissions inventories, examination of climatic change indicators, forecasting future energy-related emissions of the three primary greenhouse gases, and use of case studies to assess the effectiveness of emissions control measures. Other components of Canadian activities include increasing public awareness of climate change, sponsoring research on the subject, reviewing environmental policies, and international cooperation. 59 refs., 36 figs., 23 tabs

  12. Joint Implementation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Technical and institutional challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swisher, J.N.

    1997-01-01

    The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC) allows for the Joint Implementation (JI) of measures to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. The concept of JI refers to the implementation of such measures in one country with partial and/or technical support from another country, potentially fulfilling some of the supporting country's emission-reduction commitment under the FCCC. At present, all JI transactions are voluntary, and no country has claimed JI credit against existing FCCC commitments. Nevertheless, JI could have important implications for both the economic efficiency and the international equity of the implementation of the FCCC. The paper discusses some of the information needs of JI projects and seeks to clarify some of the common assumptions and arguments about JI. Issues regarding JI are distinguished according to those that are specific to JI as well as other types of regimes and transactions. The focus is on the position of developing countries and their potential risks and benefits regarding JI. 2 figs., 3 tabs., 35 refs

  13. Denmark's second national communication on climate change. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dissing, L.; Torp, U.; Rasmussen, E.

    1997-09-01

    At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 more than 150 countries signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. According to decisions taken under article 12 of the Convention each developed country Party shall communicate to the Convention secretariat its second national report presenting inter-alia inventories of emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse related gases. This report represents the Danish programmes and measures taken to observe the commitments under the Climate Convention. The revised 1996 IPCC guidelines have been applied to N 2 O from agriculture and the pollutants not earlier included (SO 2 , HFCs, CFCs and SF 6 ). Background material and data underlying the calculations in the report are available upon request to the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. A very comprehensive and thorough description is given of the programmes and plans for the energy sector with additional information presented in Annexes F and I. The twofold purpose is to give a detailed documentation of how Denmark will meet the ambitious target to reduce the emission of CO 2 by 20% by the year 2005 compared to 1988 and to inspire other Parties to the Convention in efforts to control their present as well as their future emissions of the most important greenhouse gases. (EG) 16 refs

  14. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoul Yousefpour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

  15. Denmark's National Inventory Report - Submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1990-2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's in-ventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO2, CH4, N2O......, CO, NMVOC, SO2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF6....

  16. Denmark's national inventory report 2006 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2004. Emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth

    2006-08-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2006. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2004 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 , CO, NMVOC, SO 2 . (au)

  17. Denmark's national inventory report. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2001. Emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

    2003-01-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due bye 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CO, NMVOC, SO 2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 . (au)

  18. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

  19. Denmark's national inventory report 2008 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2006. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Lyck, E; Hjorth Mikkelsen, M [and others

    2008-05-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2008. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2006 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFC{sub s}, PFC{sub s} and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  20. Denmark's National Inventory Reports. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Winther, M. [Danmarks Miljoeundersoegelser, Afd. for Systemanalyse (Denmark); Rasmussen, E. [Energistyrelsen (Denmark)

    2000-05-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2000. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years from 1990 to 1998 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, NO{sub x}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}, HFCs, PFCs and SF. (au)

  1. HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

    2017-07-01

    facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The resilience canvas is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend that efforts now be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.

  2. A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNulty, Steven G.; Boggs, Johnny L.

    2010-01-01

    Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period

  3. Finland`s second report under the framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    Finland is an industrialized country with extensive forest lands. Because of the structure of industry and the country`s geophysical conditions, large amounts of energy are consumed. In 1995, CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels and peat and from industry totalled 56 Tg, as compared to 54 Tg in 1990. Wood burning released another 21 Tg of CO{sub 2} in 1995, but this is not counted in total emissions because even more carbon was bound up in the growing stock in the forests. Methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions totalled 241 Gg in 1995, nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) 18 Gg, nitrogen oxides 259 Gg, carbon monoxide (CO) 434 Gg and volatile organic compounds from human activities (NMVOC) 182 Gg. Emissions other than carbon dioxide were jointly equivalent to some 25 Tg of CO{sub 2} in terms of their direct or indirect greenhouse effect. These estimates are consistent wish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The minor deviations from the guidelines have been presented in this report. Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate government departments, industry sectors, research institutions and other bodies. Wherever possible, these projections take into account the effect of current and planned policies and measures aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. The main focus in Finland`s climate strategy is to intensify those programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are already under way, such as efficiency improvements in the energy production and utilization system, and use of energy and carbon taxes. As well as limiting emissions of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases, the Finnish action programme also includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. In its energy report to Parliament in autumn 1993, the Government adopted the goals of stopping increases in CO{sub 2} emissions from

  4. Finland`s second report under the framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    Finland is an industrialized country with extensive forest lands. Because of the structure of industry and the country`s geophysical conditions, large amounts of energy are consumed. In 1995, CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels and peat and from industry totalled 56 Tg, as compared to 54 Tg in 1990. Wood burning released another 21 Tg of CO{sub 2} in 1995, but this is not counted in total emissions because even more carbon was bound up in the growing stock in the forests. Methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions totalled 241 Gg in 1995, nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) 18 Gg, nitrogen oxides 259 Gg, carbon monoxide (CO) 434 Gg and volatile organic compounds from human activities (NMVOC) 182 Gg. Emissions other than carbon dioxide were jointly equivalent to some 25 Tg of CO{sub 2} in terms of their direct or indirect greenhouse effect. These estimates are consistent wish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The minor deviations from the guidelines have been presented in this report. Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate government departments, industry sectors, research institutions and other bodies. Wherever possible, these projections take into account the effect of current and planned policies and measures aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. The main focus in Finland`s climate strategy is to intensify those programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are already under way, such as efficiency improvements in the energy production and utilization system, and use of energy and carbon taxes. As well as limiting emissions of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases, the Finnish action programme also includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. In its energy report to Parliament in autumn 1993, the Government adopted the goals of stopping increases in CO{sub 2} emissions from

  5. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  6. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

  7. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2017-01-01

    Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

  8. France's fifth national communication submitted under the United Nations framework on Climate Change. November 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After a presentation of France's national context (institutions, demography, geography, climate, economy), this document proposes information related to greenhouse gas emission inventory, a description of policy and measures aimed notably at meeting Kyoto's protocol requirements, a discussion of projections and of an assessment of the total effect of these policy and measures, a discussion of vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures, a presentation of financial resources and technology transfer actions, a presentation of research actions and systematic observations, and a presentation of actions in the fields of education, training and public participation

  9. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  10. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong; Honrado, João; Santos, Mário

    2016-01-01

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River

  11. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2015-02-01

    Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

  12. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    , but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

  13. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  14. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  15. The second Swedish national report on climate changes. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    The Swedish policy and measures for mitigating the climatic change and an inventory of Swedish greenhouse gas emissions are reported. 80% of these emission are carbon dioxide, and the transport sector is responsible for 33% of the emissions. Emissions from the energy sector and industry have been reduced, while the emissions from transports are increasing. The Swedish forests are a carbon sink, with a net accumulation of about 30 M tons/year, which roughly corresponds to half the emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels

  16. Canada's national report on actions to meet commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    Current actions by Canadian governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, and the private sector to meet domestic and international climate change commitments are reviewed. The possible impacts of climate change on Canada are discussed and Canadian greenhouse gas emissions are assessed in terms of factors such as climate, geography, land use, economic structure, and energy production and consumption. Canada's draft National Action Strategy on Global Warming provides a framework for actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Measures already taken include those aimed at increasing energy efficiency and energy conservation or encouraging a switch to less carbon-intensive energy sources. Other measures include information and education initiatives, regulation, research and development, and economic instruments. Actions have already been taken in the transportation, electricity generation, residential/commercial, resource/manufacturing industry, and waste management sectors. Canada is also involved in international studies and agreements to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. Four tools are used to assess progress in limiting emissions: emission inventories, climate change indicators, an emissions outlook, and case studies. The emissions outlook presented shows that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will increase 10.6% from 1990 to 2000, reaching the equivalent of 538.2 megatonnes of CO 2 . A case study shows that current and planned measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions associated with space heating requirements in new single-family homes will reduce emissions in this area 18% from what they would otherwise be in the year 2000. 58 refs., 44 figs., 21 tabs

  17. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  18. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong

    2016-01-01

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  19. Denmark's national inventory report 2006 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2004. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

    2006-08-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2006. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2004 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  20. Denmark's national inventory report. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2001. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

    2003-04-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due bye 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}. (au)

  1. Denmark's national inventory report 2007 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2005. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

    2007-10-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2007. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2005 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  2. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli Pekka

    2015-01-01

    = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects......Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate...... change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation...

  3. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  4. Denmark's national inventory report 2008 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2006. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Lyck, E.; Hjorth Mikkelsen, M. (and others)

    2008-05-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2008. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2006 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFC{sub s}, PFC{sub s} and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  5. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  6. A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

    2016-01-01

    Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

  7. Spanish Nuclear Safety Research under International Frameworks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L. E.; Reventos, F.; Ahnert, C.; Jimenez, G.; Queral, C.; Verdu, G.; Miro, R.; Gallardo, S.

    2013-10-01

    The Nuclear Safety research requires a wide international collaboration of several involved groups. In this sense this paper pretends to show several examples of the Nuclear Safety research under international frameworks that is being performed in different Universities and Research Institutions like CIEMAT, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC), Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM) and Universitat Politenica de Valencia (UPV). (Author)

  8. Energy sustainability under the framework of telecoupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Baling; Tan, Yi; Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Liu, Jianguo; Schweizer, Pia-Johanna; Shi, Haiqing; Zhou, Bin; Chen, Hao; Hu, Zhuangli

    2016-01-01

    Energy systems, which include energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution and utilization, are key infrastructures in modern society. Interactions among energy systems are generally studied under the framework of energy trade. Although such studies have generated important insights, there are limitations. Many distant interactions (e.g. those due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis) are not in the form of trade, but affect energy sustainability. Even when distant interactions are related to energy trade, they are not systematically analyzed. Environmental impacts of trade are often not integrated with economic analysis of trade. In this paper, to identify and fill important knowledge gaps, we apply an integrated framework of telecoupling (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances). The framework of telecoupling, which is more comprehensive and cross-disciplinary than the energy trade framework, is a useful theoretical and methodological tool for analyzing distant interactions among coupled human and natural systems (including energy systems). Telecouplings widely exist in energy systems with various forms and link energy sustainability of different countries closely, so we proposed some methods for energy sustainability analysis under the framework of telecoupling. From the aspect of causes, a method is proposed to judge whether the telecoupling driven by economic factors is conducive to energy sustainability. From the aspect of effects, a method is proposed to assess whether an event is conducive to energy sustainability. The telecoupling framework presents opportunities for more profound and comprehensive understanding of energy sustainability. - Highlights: • A new perspective to study energy sustainability under telecoupling is proposed. • Methods for assessing the causes and effects of energy sustainability are proposed. • Some specific examples of telecoupling in the energy systems are demonstrated.

  9. National inventory report for France under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol - CCNUCC, March 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Jean-Pierre; Fontelle, Jean-Pierre; Nicco, Laetitia; Andre, Jean-Marc; Deflorenne, Emmanuel; Druart, Ariane; Gueguen, Celine; Jabot, Julien; Jacquier, Guillaume; Joya, Romain; Martinet, Yann; Mathias, Etienne; Prouteau, Emilie; Serveau, Laetitia; Vincent, Julien; Allemand, Nadine; Bastide, Aurelie; Gavel, Antoine; Kessouar, Sabrina; Tuddenham, Mark; Millard, Frederique; MArtineaud, Helene; MILLION, Aurelien; Nikov, Dimitar; Guittet, Olivier

    2011-03-01

    This national inventory report supplies emission data for France within the period 1990-2009, concerning all the substances that contribute to enhancing the greenhouse effect, required under: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the second year of commitment to the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). The substances covered are the direct greenhouse gases comprising the Kyoto Protocol 'basket of six': carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the two species of halogenous substances, hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), have also to be reported by the Parties under the Convention. For the period 1990-2008 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9), as defined by the UNFCCC. Several changes have been added to take into account the remarks of the reviews of UNFCCC. Although significant continuous progress has been achieved in terms of the sources covered and the quality of estimates, considerable uncertainties remain concerning emissions. These should be borne in mind when using the data in this report. A table indicating uncertainties based on current knowledge has been included in the report. Future reviews of these data are always possible, if not probable, to take into account both changes in methodology and work underway at international level with a view to improving knowledge and rules on compiling and presenting emissions. To answer specifically to the Kyoto Protocol's requirements, this report also includes the requirements supplementary information required under Article 7, paragraph 1, and Article 3, paragraph 14 of the

  10. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  11. New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

  12. Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, C.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

  13. Change Management: A Theoretical Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Yasemin KÜÇÜKÖZKAN

    2015-01-01

    Organizations are dynamic and open systems that exist in mutual affection with their environment and deliver output to environment from which they receive inputs. Organizations need to make organizational regulations against internal and external occurring changes. Therefore, organizations have to gain new features and abilities in order to get along with the change. Today, changes we face in all areas affect also health system. The increase of the society’s health level is attributed to well...

  14. France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change; France 2001. Troisieme communication nationale a la convention cadre des nations unies sur les changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

  15. A theoretical framework of organizational change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, G.; Polos, L.; van Witteloostuijn, A.; Christe-Zyse, J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – Organizational change is a risky endeavour. Most change initiatives fall short on their goals and produce high opportunity and process costs, which at times outweigh the content benefits of organizational change. This paper seeks to develop a framework, offering a theoretical toolbox to

  16. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  17. Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

    2017-04-01

    A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the

  18. Changes in epistemic frameworks: Random or constrained?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananka Loubser

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the emergence of a solid anti-positivist approach in the philosophy of science, an important question has been to understand how and why epistemic frameworks change in time, are modified or even substituted. In contemporary philosophy of science three main approaches to framework-change were detected in the humanist tradition:1. In both the pre-theoretical and theoretical domains changes occur according to a rather constrained, predictable or even pre-determined pattern (e.g. Holton.2. Changes occur in a way that is more random or unpredictable and free from constraints (e.g. Kuhn, Feyerabend, Rorty, Lyotard.3. Between these approaches, a middle position can be found, attempting some kind of synthesis (e.g. Popper, Lakatos.Because this situation calls for clarification and systematisation, this article in fact tried to achieve more clarity on how changes in pre-scientific frameworks occur, as well as provided transcendental criticism of the above positions. This article suggested that the above-mentioned positions are not fully satisfactory, as change and constancy are not sufficiently integrated. An alternative model was suggested in which changes in epistemic frameworks occur according to a pattern, neither completely random nor rigidly constrained, which results in change being dynamic but not arbitrary. This alternative model is integral, rather than dialectical and therefore does not correspond to position three. 

  19. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  20. Care profession under change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask Eriksen, Tine; Engel, Lisbeth Vinberg; Vedsegaard, Helle

    Backgound and aims: Sygeplejerskemanglen i Danmark er stor. Udfordringerne består i disse år i at rekruttere og fastholde sygeplejestuderende i studiet. Hensigten med projektet er dels at undersøge hvilke livshistoriske omsorgsforudsætninger, de studerende møder med i uddannelsen og dels at beskr...

  1. Complex Interfaces Under Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    The hydrosphere is dynamic across the major compartments of the Earth system: the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, the land surface water, and the groundwater within the strata below the two last compartments. The global geography of the hydrosphere essentially depends on thermodynamic and mechan...... these interfaces and interfaced compartments and processes. Climate, sea-level, oceanographic currents and hydrological processes are all affected, while anthropogenic changes are often intense in the geographic settings corresponding to such interfaces....... and mechanical processes that develop within this structure. Water-related processes at the interfaces between the compartments are complex, depending both on the interface itself, and on the characteristics of the interfaced compartments. Various aspects of global change directly or indirectly impact...

  2. Allowable CO2 concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity probability distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L D Danny

    2007-01-01

    Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. Until recently, the consensus viewpoint was that the climate sensitivity (the global mean equilibrium warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration) was 'likely' to fall between 1.5 and 4.5 K. However, a number of recent studies have generated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity with the 95th percentile of the expected climate sensitivity as large as 10 K, while some studies suggest that the climate sensitivity is likely to fall in the lower half of the long-standing 1.5-4.5 K range. This paper examines the allowable CO 2 concentration as a function of the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf (ranging from 2 to 8 K) and for the following additional assumptions: (i) the 50th percentile for the pdf of the minimum sustained global mean warming that causes unacceptable harm equal to 1.5 or 2.5 K; and (ii) 1%, 5% or 10% allowable risks of unacceptable harm. For a 1% risk tolerance and the more stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 323 to 268 ppmv as the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf increases from 2 to 8 K, while for a 10% risk tolerance and the less stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 531 to 305 ppmv. In both cases it is assumed that non-CO 2 GHG radiative forcing can be reduced to half of its present value, otherwise; the allowable CO 2 concentration is even smaller. Accounting for the fact that the CO 2 concentration will gradually fall if emissions are reduced to zero, and that peak realized warming will then be less than the peak equilibrium warming (related to peak radiative forcing) allows the CO 2 concentration to peak at 10-40 ppmv higher than the limiting values given above for a climate

  3. The European Framework Programme under way

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1 January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 B-Euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding of frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 December...

  4. The European Framework Programme under way

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1st January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 billion euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 Decem...

  5. The EC BIOCLIM Project (2000-2003), 5. Euratom Framework Programme - Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvez, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Marianne Calvez (ANDRA, France) presented the new EC BIOCLIM project that started in 2001. Its main objective is to provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the possible long-term impacts on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations due to climate driven changes. She explained that BIOCLIM objective is not to predict what will be the future but will correspond to an illustration of how people could use the knowledge. The BIOCLIM project will use the outcomes from the Biomass project. Where Biomass considered discrete biospheres, the BIOCLIM project will consider the evolution of climate with a focus on the European climate for three regions in the United Kingdom, France and Spain. The consortium of BIOCLIM participants consists of various experts in climate modelling and various experts and organisations in performance assessment. The intent is to build an integrated dynamic climate model that represents all the important mechanisms for long-term climate evolution. The modelling will primarily address the next 200000 years. The final outcome will be an enhancement of the state-of-the-art treatment of biosphere system change over long periods of time through the use of a number of innovative climate modelling approaches and the application of the climate model outputs in performance assessments

  6. Scalability under a Power Bound using the GREMLINs Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiterth, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    With the move towards exascale, system and software developers will have to deal with issues of extreme parallelism. The system properties affected most by the increase in node and core count are the shared resources on node and across the system. The increase in parallelism leads to reduced memory and bandwidth when regarding individual cores. Since power is a limiting factor for supercomputers, and power is not fully utilized in current systems, overprovisioning compute resources is a viable approach to maximized power utilization. To maximize system performance in regard to these changing conditions, it is necessary to understand how resource restrictions impact performance and system behavior. For the purpose of understanding anticipated system properties the GREMLINs Framework was developed. The framework gives the opportunity to add power restrictions, hinder memory properties and introduce faults to study resilience, among others. These features give the opportunity to use current petascale technology to study problems system designers and software developers will have to face when moving towards exascale and beyond. This work describes the initial release of the GREMLINs Framework, developed for this work, and shows how it can be used to study the scaling behavior of proxy applications. These proxy applications represent a selection of HPC workloads important to the scientific community. The proxy applications studied are AMG2013, an algebraic multi-grid linear system solver, CoMD, a classical molecular dynamics proxy application and NEKBONE, an application that uses a high order spectral element method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations. The main interest of these studies lies in analysis regarding their power behavior at scale under a power bound. These findings show how the GREMLINs Framework can help systems and software designers to attain better application performance and can also be used as basis for CPU power balancing tools to use power more

  7. Scalability under a Power Bound using the GREMLINs Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiterth, Matthias [Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich (Germany)

    2015-02-16

    With the move towards exascale, system and software developers will have to deal with issues of extreme parallelism. The system properties affected most by the increase in node and core count are the shared resources on node and across the system. The increase in parallelism leads to reduced memory and bandwidth when regarding individual cores. Since power is a limiting factor for supercomputers, and power is not fully utilized in current systems, overprovisioning compute resources is a viable approach to maximized power utilization. To maximize system performance in regard to these changing conditions, it is necessary to understand how resource restrictions impact performance and system behavior. For the purpose of understanding anticipated system properties the GREMLINs Framework was developed. The framework gives the opportunity to add power restrictions, hinder memory properties and introduce faults to study resilience, among others. These features give the opportunity to use current petascale technology to study problems system designers and software developers will have to face when moving towards exascale and beyond. This work describes the initial release of the GREMLINs Framework, developed for this work, and shows how it can be used to study the scaling behavior of proxy applications. These proxy applications represent a selection of HPC workloads important to the scientific community. The proxy applications studied are AMG2013, an algebraic multi-grid linear system solver, CoMD, a classical molecular dynamics proxy application and NEKBONE, an application that uses a high order spectral element method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations. The main interest of these studies lies in analysis regarding their power behavior at scale under a power bound. These findings show how the GREMLINs Framework can help systems and software designers to attain better application performance and can also be used as basis for CPU power balancing tools to use power more

  8. Inventory of greenhouse effect gases in France under the united nation framework convention on climatic change; Inventaire des emissions de gaz a effet de serre en France au titre de la convention cadre des nations unies sur le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-01

    The present report supplies emission data, for France and for the period 1990 - 2000 concerning all the substances involved in the increase in the greenhouse effect and covered under the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The substances are the six direct greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto protocol: carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), the two species of halogenous substances - hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), gases which indirectly make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, are reported under the Convention. For the period 1990 - 1999 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/CP/1999/7) defined by the UNFCCC on reporting for inventories of emissions, in particular the use of the Common Reporting Format (CRF). (author)

  9. Towards a Framework for Change Detection in Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Mirko; Nauck, Detlef; Ruta, Dymitr; Spott, Martin

    Since the world with its markets, innovations and customers is changing faster than ever before, the key to survival for businesses is the ability to detect, assess and respond to changing conditions rapidly and intelligently. Discovering changes and reacting to or acting upon them before others do has therefore become a strategical issue for many companies. However, existing data analysis techniques are insufflent for this task since they typically assume that the domain under consideration is stable over time. This paper presents a framework that detects changes within a data set at virtually any level of granularity. The underlying idea is to derive a rule-based description of the data set at different points in time and to subsequently analyse how these rules change. Nevertheless, further techniques are required to assist the data analyst in interpreting and assessing their changes. Therefore the framework also contains methods to discard rules that are non-drivers for change and to assess the interestingness of detected changes.

  10. A normative ethical framework in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grasso, M. [Dipartimento di Sociologia e Ricerca Sociale, Universita degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Edificio U7, via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milan (Italy)

    2007-04-15

    The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen's capability approach, seems promising.

  11. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  12. A country framework for analyzing climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, K.

    1995-01-01

    Once the global community accepted the threat of global climate change as a serious one, many countries began to study its possible consequences and the scope for national action that could help mitigate it. Governments will find that national climate change studies are useful quite apart from helping them to fulfill commitments under the FCCC. All countries, developed and developing, will benefit from an understanding of the sacrifice they need to make for the greater benefit of climate change mitigation. This sacrifice - that is, the set of trade-offs or the 'added burden' - is what economists refer to as the 'incremental cost' of climate change mitigation actions. All countries will benefit from knowing what these costs are and from knowing how much their national action will matter. Using measures of cost and mitigation, they will be able to choose from among their alternative national actions those with the greatest effect and the lowest incremental cost. Eligible countries can also use these measures to negotiate the amount of financial assistance they need from the financial mechanism of the FCCC or other sources. A country framework for medium-term considerations will yield results useful for investment planning, policy choice, and financial reimbursement (where appropriate). This is the focus of the framework outlined in this paper. (EG) 15 refs

  13. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  14. Engineering Change Management Method Framework in Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stekolschik, Alexander

    2016-11-01

    Engineering changes make an impact on different process chains in and outside the company, and lead to most error costs and time shifts. In fact, 30 to 50 per cent of development costs result from technical changes. Controlling engineering change processes can help us to avoid errors and risks, and contribute to cost optimization and a shorter time to market. This paper presents a method framework for controlling engineering changes at mechanical engineering companies. The developed classification of engineering changes and accordingly process requirements build the basis for the method framework. The developed method framework comprises two main areas: special data objects managed in different engineering IT tools and process framework. Objects from both areas are building blocks that can be selected to the overall business process based on the engineering process type and change classification. The process framework contains steps for the creation of change objects (both for overall change and for parts), change implementation, and release. Companies can select singleprocess building blocks from the framework, depending on the product development process and change impact. The developed change framework has been implemented at a division (10,000 employees) of a big German mechanical engineering company.

  15. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  16. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

    2017-01-01

    Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that ...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

  17. Global climate change: a framework for nursing action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVIN J. ANDREWS

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research papers and commentaries have articulated the considerable effects that global climate change has had, and will have, on human health. Arguing that nursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation and response efforts, this paper develops a framework for professional consideration and action. Four core components of the framework are common tactics, maximizing specialties, prioritizing places and public scholarship.

  18. The CAWMSET Report: A Framework for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budil, Kimberly S.

    2001-04-01

    In October 1998 the Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering and Technology Development (CAWMSET) was established by Congress through legislation developed and sponsored by Congresswomen Constance A. Morella (R-MD). The CAWMSET became a focal point for a grass-roots organization of women at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), California in collaboration with the Society of Women Engineers seeking to improve the environment in our workplaces. With the encouragement of our Congresswoman, Ellen Tauscher (D-CA), we embarked on an effort to provide input to the Commission regarding the recruitment, advancement and retention of women in the technical workforce since the input they received was primarily focused on the educational pipeline. The release of the CAWMSET's final report this summer provided a framework to begin to work toward the overarching goal of an inclusive, supportive, and diverse scientific community and to help us devise strategies for our home organizations that will allow us to achieve this in the near future. The Commission's final recommendation was to create a follow-on organization to carry their work forward. Professional organizations like the American Physical Society can play a key role in helping to ensure that the CAWMSET report is acted upon, not filed and forgotten. I will discuss the findings of the CAWMSET as well as past and ongoing activities at LLNL and SNL in support of this effort.

  19. Institutional framework changes in Brazil's energy industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Almeida, E.; Queiroz Pinto JR, H.

    2009-01-01

    The liberalization of the Brazilian energy sector in the 1990's was meant to drastically reduce the role of the State in the sector. This reform has not had the desired results. Private investment could not guarantee the expansion of the Brazilian energy sector at the necessary speed. The first half of this decade has been marked by problems of electricity supply and a rather timid role of private investment in boosting energy supply. During the second half of the decade, liberal reform of the energy sector in Brazil has gone through major adjustments, marked by the search for a new compromise between the role of the State and the private sector. This paper highlights the institutional evolution of Brazil's energy or industries and tries to show how risk for public and private investment has been reduced by the adoption of new institutional and economic mechanisms of coordination. In the current institutional framework, the State plays an important role in coordinating the investment process for the expansion of supply. The pace of investment in Brazil in the energy sector has accelerated significantly after the adoption of the new coordination mechanisms. (authors)

  20. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  1. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

  2. Biome redistribution under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson

    2000-01-01

    General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...

  3. Organisational change. Grace under fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Helen; Parker, Helen

    2006-12-14

    The success of organisational change is often thwarted by leaders' failure to consider staff feelings. Managers must communicate a clear vision for the future, even though they may be facing great professional uncertainty themselves. It is important to deal with post-merger issues such as helping staff to new roles and 'unlearning' old ways.

  4. Human choice and climate change. Volume 1: The societal framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raynor, S.; Malone, E.

    1998-01-01

    This book is Volume 1 of a four-volume set which assesses social science research that is relevant to global climate change from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary perspective. Attention is focused on the societal framework as it relates to climate change. This series is indispensable reading for scientists and engineers wishing to make an effective contribution to the climate change policy debate

  5. Activities implemented jointly: First report to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Accomplishments and descriptions of projects accepted under the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    More than 150 countries are now Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which seeks, as its ultimate objective, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. As a step toward this goal, all Parties are to take measures to mitigate climate change and to promote and cooperate in the development and diffusion of technologies and practices that control or reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases. In the US view, efforts between countries or entities within them to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions undertaken cooperatively--called joint implementation (JI)--holds significant potential both for combating the threat of global warming and for promoting sustainable development. To develop and operationalize the JI concept, the US launched its Initiative on Joint Implementation (USIJI) in October 1993, and designed the program to attract private sector resources and to encourage the diffusion of innovative technologies to mitigate climate change. The USIJI provides a mechanism for investments by US entities in projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and has developed a set of criteria for evaluating proposed projects for their potential to reduce net GHG emissions.

  6. Does social marketing provide a framework for changing healthcare practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Zoë Slote; Clarkson, Peter John

    2009-07-01

    We argue that social marketing can be used as a generic framework for analysing barriers to the take-up of clinical guidelines, and planning interventions which seek to enable this change. We reviewed the literature on take-up of clinical guidelines, in particular barriers and enablers to change; social marketing principles and social marketing applied to healthcare. We then applied the social marketing framework to analyse the literature and to consider implications for future guideline policy to assess its feasibility and accessibility. There is sizeable extant literature on healthcare practitioners' non-compliance with clinical guidelines. This is an international problem common to a number of settings. The reasons for poor levels of take up appear to be well understood, but not addressed adequately in practice. Applying a social marketing framework brings new insights to the problem." We show that a social marketing framework provides a useful solution-focused framework for systematically understanding barriers to individual behaviour change and designing interventions accordingly. Whether the social marketing framework provides an effective means of bringing about behaviour change remains an empirical question which has still to be tested in practice. The analysis presented here provides strong motivation to begin such testing.

  7. Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D. McGinnis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The social-ecological system (SES framework investigated in this special issue enables researchers from diverse disciplinary backgrounds working on different resource sectors in disparate geographic areas, biophysical conditions, and temporal domains to share a common vocabulary for the construction and testing of alternative theories and models that determine which influences on processes and outcomes are especially critical in specific empirical settings. We summarize changes that have been made to this framework and discuss a few remaining ambiguities in its formulation. Specifically, we offer a tentative rearrangement of the list of relevant attributes of governance systems and discuss other ways to make this framework applicable to policy settings beyond natural resource settings. The SES framework will continue to change as more researchers apply it to additional contexts; the main purpose of this article is to delineate the version that served as the basis for the theoretical innovations and empirical analyses detailed in other contributions to this special issue.

  8. National Framework of Professional Standards for Change Leadership in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Francis M.

    2009-01-01

    The ten professional standards form what Francis Duffy refers to as a "National Framework of Professional Standards for Change Leadership in Education." Each standard has examples of the knowledge, skills, and dispositions that the research suggests are important for effective change leadership. Duffy's hope is that this proposed…

  9. A prompt start: Implementing the framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chayes, A.; Skolnikoff, E.B.; Victor, D.G.

    1992-01-01

    A Framework Convention on Climate Change is under active negotiation in the United Nations with the expectation it will be ready for Signature at the Rio Conference this June. Under the most optimistic projections, a Convention will not come into force and be an effective instrument for months, probably years. In recognition of the several institutional tasks that will be of crucial importance whatever the detailed content of the Convention a small group of high international organizations involved in the negotiations was convened at the Rockefeller Foundation's Conference Center at Bellagio in January. The discussions at Bellagio on the need for a Prompt Start on these institutional tasks benefitted from earlier meetings at Harvard in March and at Bermuda in May, 1991, that the co-organizers convened to discuss these and related aspects of the negotiations on a Climate Convention. Those meetings were attended by members of the academic community, officials from the United Nations, and representatives of governments involved in the negotiations

  10. Conceptual framework for research on global change 1992-1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    For a better overall understanding of the Earth system scientists have initiated extensive international research programs dealing with the dynamics of the Earth system. These activities are characterized by their interdisciplinary, border crossing, and system orientated approach. For a long time scientists from the Federal Republic of Germany participate significantly in the conception and completion of such programs. The more and more urgent questions from politics and from the public have prompted the Federal Government under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology to increase these efforts. In this the Federal Government will also be supported by the Scientific Advisory Committee appointed by it, which annually presents a report on the state of global changes and their consequences. In this brochure the Conceptual Framework for Research on Global Changes is presented, which was passed by the Federal Cabinet in April 1992. It is documenting the advanced state of research, which has already been achieved in this country. At the same time, however, it is made clear that significant further steps have to be taken to contribute to the solution of the most urgent problems of the world. (orig.)

  11. The deep ocean under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-01

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  12. Understanding the Paris agreement: analysing the reporting requirements under the enhanced transparency framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desgain, Denis DR; Sharma, Sudhir

    At the Paris climate conference (COP-21) in December 2015, the Conference of the Parties decided to adopt the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This was the first time that 195 Parties had agreed on a universal, legally binding climate instrument......th October 2016, 74 Par¬ties had ratified the Agreement, accounting for 58.82% of global GHG emissions.1 The Paris Agreement will thus enter into force on 4th November 2016....

  13. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  14. framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Dermody

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  15. Introduction: Greening the countryside? Changing frameworks of EU agricultural policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Philip; Feindt, Peter H; Vihinen, Hilkka

    2010-01-01

    In response to wide-ranging criticism of agricultural policy, especially within Western industrialized countries, new frameworks of justification are emerging and new hybrid policy fields have been established to tackle some of the ‘externalities’ of agricultural support. However, institutional frameworks are proving slower to change, partly because this would require coordinated action across different levels of governance. Nevertheless, previously marginalized environmental concerns have successfully gained entrance to agricultural policy networks, while the intersection of trade liberalization and rural diversification have undermined the dominance of the productivist mindset in government. This gives rise to a plurality of policy actors and actions which defy the conventional categories of analysis of agricultural policy, calling for changing frameworks on the polity of agriculture too.

  16. A Framework for Assessing Soil Moisture Deficit and Crop Water Stress at Multiple Space and Time Scales Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Model Platform, Satellite Remote Sensing, and Decision Support System

    KAUST Repository

    Mohanty, Binayak P.

    2016-11-03

    Better understanding of water cycle at different space–time scales would be a key for sustainable water resources, agricultural production, and ecosystems health in the twenty-first century. Efficient agricultural water management is necessary for sustainability of the growing global population. This warrants better predictive tools for aridity (based on precipitation, temperature, land use, and land cover), root zone (~top 1 m) soil moisture deficit, and crop water stress at farm, county, state, region, and national level, where decisions are made to allocate and manage the water resources. It will provide useful strategies for not only efficient water use but also for reducing potential risk of crop failure due to agricultural drought. Leveraging heavily on ongoing multiscale hydrologic modeling, data assimilation, soil moisture dynamics, and inverse model development research activities, and ongoing Land Data Assimilation (LDAS) and National Climate Assessment (NCA) indexing efforts we are developing a drought assessment framework. The drought assessment platform includes: (1) developing disaggregation methods for extracting various field-scale (1-km or less) climate indicators from the (SMOS, VIIRS, SMAP, AMSR-2) satellite / LDAS-based soil moisture in conjunction with a multimodel simulation–optimization approach using ensemble of Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer, SVAT (Noah, CLM, VIC, Mosaic in LIS) models; (2) predicting farm/field-scale long-term root zone soil moisture status under various land management and climate scenarios for the past decades in hindcast mode and for the next decades in forecast mode across the USA using effective land surface parameters and meteorological input from Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs; (3) assessing the potential risk of agricultural drought at different space–time scales across the USA based on predicted root zone soil moisture; and (4) evaluating various water management and cropping practices (e

  17. A Behavior Change Framework of Health Socialization and Identity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Christopher T.; Stanley, Lauren H. K.

    2017-01-01

    An individual's identity related to health is critically important in terms of the adoption and maintenance of health behaviors, and guides approaches to health change across the lifespan. This article presents a review of the literature and proposes a health socialization and health identity framework, which may be used to clarify challenges in…

  18. On user behaviour adaptation under interface change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin S

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces, Haifa, Israel, 24-27 February 2014 On User Behaviour Adaptation Under Interface Change Benjamin Rosman_ Subramanian Ramamoorthy M. M. Hassan Mahmud School of Informatics University of Edinburgh...

  19. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A V; Bezmenov, K V; Demchenko, P F; Mokhov, I I; Petoukhov, V K [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1996-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  20. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  1. Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy.

  2. Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy. (letter)

  3. The deep ocean under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-13

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

  5. The ABLe change framework: a conceptual and methodological tool for promoting systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Fishman, Pennie G; Watson, Erin R

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents a new approach to the design and implementation of community change efforts like a System of Care. Called the ABLe Change Framework, the model provides simultaneous attention to the content and process of the work, ensuring effective implementation and the pursuit of systems change. Three key strategies are employed in this model to ensure the integration of content and process efforts and effective mobilization of broad scale systems change: Systemic Action Learning Teams, Simple Rules, and Small Wins. In this paper we describe the ABLe Change Framework and present a case study in which we successfully applied this approach to one system of care effort in Michigan.

  6. Process change evaluation framework for allogeneic cell therapies: impact on drug development and commercialization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Sally; Huang, Hsini; Warren, Kim; Mahdavi, Behzad; Smith, David; Jong, Simcha; Farid, Suzanne S

    2016-04-01

    Some allogeneic cell therapies requiring a high dose of cells for large indication groups demand a change in cell expansion technology, from planar units to microcarriers in single-use bioreactors for the market phase. The aim was to model the optimal timing for making this change. A development lifecycle cash flow framework was created to examine the implications of process changes to microcarrier cultures at different stages of a cell therapy's lifecycle. The analysis performed under assumptions used in the framework predicted that making this switch earlier in development is optimal from a total expected out-of-pocket cost perspective. From a risk-adjusted net present value view, switching at Phase I is economically competitive but a post-approval switch can offer the highest risk-adjusted net present value as the cost of switching is offset by initial market penetration with planar technologies. The framework can facilitate early decision-making during process development.

  7. Xenon changes under power-burst conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    Under ordinary operating conditions the xenon concentration in a reactor core can change significantly in times on the order of hours. Core transients of safety significance are much more rapid and hence calculations are done with xenon concentration held constant. However, in certain transients (such as reactivity initiated accidents) there is a very large power surge and the question arises as to whether under these circumstances the xenon concentration could change. This would be particularly important if the xenon were reduced thereby tending to make the accident autocatalytic. The objective of the present study is to quantify this effect to see if it could be important

  8. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  9. VoIP under the EU regulatory framework : preventing foreclosure?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sadowski, B.M.; Straathof, B.

    2005-01-01

    In June 2004, the European Commission (EC) issued an "Information and Consultation Document" (European Commission 2004) that discussed how the Regulatory Framework of the European Union (EU) should be adapted to accommodate Voice over IP (VoIP) and invited relevant parties to comment on the

  10. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  11. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  12. A framework for the organizational assumptions underlying safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Packer, Charles

    2002-01-01

    The safety culture of the nuclear organization can be addressed at the three levels of culture proposed by Edgar Schein. The industry literature provides a great deal of insight at the artefact and espoused value levels, although as yet it remains somewhat disorganized. There is, however, an overall lack of understanding of the assumption level of safety culture. This paper describes a possible framework for conceptualizing the assumption level, suggesting that safety culture is grounded in unconscious beliefs about the nature of the safety problem, its solution and how to organize to achieve the solution. Using this framework, the organization can begin to uncover the assumptions at play in its normal operation, decisions and events and, if necessary, engage in a process to shift them towards assumptions more supportive of a strong safety culture. (author)

  13. Bulgarian clusters under development: Political framework and results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bankova Yovka

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The idea of clusters is not new but nowadays clusters are in a highlight again. Through cluster policies the countries aim at raising their national competitiveness. The paper deals with two objectives - discussion and evaluation of the strategic framework for clusters in Bulgaria and an analysis of the state of Bulgarian clusters. The paper presents briefly general issues concerning the national competitiveness and clusters as being one of the possible instruments to achieve a sustainable competitiveness. The practice of the policy in the EU in the field of clusters is the basis for conclusions about the role of the governments. The second part deals with the strategic framework for the cluster initiatives in Bulgaria and with a selection of indicators about the SMEs and clusters in the country. On this basis a conclusion about the development stage of Bulgarian clusters is derived.

  14. Framework for projecting employment and population changes accompanying energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenehjem, E.J.; Metzger, J.E.

    1980-05-01

    This report provides a framework which energy planners can use to readily estimate the size and timing of the population and employment changes associated with energy development. The direct employment requirements for eight different technologies are listed. This direct employment requirement can be combined with the set of employment multipliers and other information provided to obtain practical estimates of the employment and population impacts of new energy development. Some explanation is given for the variation of the multipliers among counties in the same region. A description is presented of a demographic model for deriving the annual population changes that can be expected as a result of in-migrating workers and their families. Several hypothetical examples of the procedure for making the calculations are discussed as practical exercises in using the multipliers. The necessary data are provided for obtaining estimates of population and employment changes in any county in the US.

  15. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

  16. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  17. A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

  18. Brazil and the UN framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques De Souza, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Due to a high share (96%) of hydropower generation in its electricity production, Brazil emits relatively small amounts of CO 2 . It is argued that, because developed countries are responsible for some 65% of the global emissions of GHGs, they should start to reduce their greenhouse gas emission, which follows also directly from the Framework Convention on Climate Change. After ratification of the Convention Brazil has taken all steps to implement the Convention and to assess its greenhouse gas emissions. Various advisory and co-ordinating bodies have been installed by decree in mid 1994. (author). 1 fig., 1 tab

  19. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Frequent price changes under menu costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Per Svejstrup

    1999-01-01

    , the price may be changed more frequent in the short run, and in the long run it definitely will. Hence, observing frequent price changes is not necessarily inconsistent with a firm operating under menu costs. This paper relies on an article by Dixit (1991), (Review of Economic studies, 58, 141......This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on a single firm's pricing behaviour in a dynamic menu cost model that results in (S,s)-rules where the price is fixed inside a band. It will be demonstrated that even though the band of inaction widens in response to increased uncertainty...

  1. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  2. An evolutionary framework for cultural change: Selectionism versus communal exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabora, Liane

    2013-06-01

    Dawkins' replicator-based conception of evolution has led to widespread mis-application of selectionism across the social sciences because it does not address the paradox that necessitated the theory of natural selection in the first place: how do organisms accumulate change when traits acquired over their lifetime are obliterated? This is addressed by von Neumann's concept of a self-replicating automaton (SRA). A SRA consists of a self-assembly code that is used in two distinct ways: (1) actively deciphered during development to construct a self-similar replicant, and (2) passively copied to the replicant to ensure that it can reproduce. Information that is acquired over a lifetime is not transmitted to offspring, whereas information that is inherited during copying is transmitted. In cultural evolution there is no mechanism for discarding acquired change. Acquired change can accumulate orders of magnitude faster than, and quickly overwhelm, inherited change due to differential replication of variants in response to selection. This prohibits a selectionist but not an evolutionary framework for culture and the creative processes that fuel it. The importance non-Darwinian processes in biological evolution is increasingly recognized. Recent work on the origin of life suggests that early life evolved through a non-Darwinian process referred to as communal exchange that does not involve a self-assembly code, and that natural selection emerged from this more haphazard, ancestral evolutionary process. It is proposed that communal exchange provides an evolutionary framework for culture that enables specification of cognitive features necessary for a (real or artificial) societies to evolve culture. This is supported by a computational model of cultural evolution and a conceptual network based program for documenting material cultural history, and it is consistent with high levels of human cooperation.

  3. A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

    2017-06-01

    Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. A structural framework for anomalous change detection and characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, Lakshman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Theiler, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present a spatially adaptive scheme for automatically searching a pair of images of a scene for unusual and interesting changes. Our motivation is to bring into play structural aspects of image features alongside the spectral attributes used for anomalous change detection (ACD). We leverage a small but informative subset of pixels, namely edge pixels of the images, as anchor points of a Delaunay triangulation to jointly decompose the images into a set of triangular regions, called trixels, which are spectrally uniform. Such decomposition helps in image regularization by simple-function approximation on a feature-adaptive grid. Applying ACD to this trixel grid instead of pixels offers several advantages. It allows: (1) edge-preserving smoothing of images, (2) speed-up of spatial computations by significantly reducing the representation of the images, and (3) the easy recovery of structure of the detected anomalous changes by associating anomalous trixels with polygonal image features. The latter facility further enables the application of shape-theoretic criteria and algorithms to characterize the changes and recognize them as interesting or not. This incorporation of spatial information has the potential to filter out some spurious changes, such as due to parallax, shadows, and misregistration, by identifying and filtering out those that are structurally similar and spatially pervasive. Our framework supports the joint spatial and spectral analysis of images, potentially enabling the design of more robust ACD algorithms.

  5. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

    2016-11-01

    Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

  7. Frameworks for change in healthcare organisations: a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Graham P; Sutton, Elizabeth; Willars, Janet; Dixon-Woods, Mary

    2013-08-01

    Organisational change in complex healthcare systems is a multifaceted process. The English National Health Service recently introduced a 'Change Model' that seeks to offer an evidence-based framework for guiding change. We report findings from a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model and make recommendations for those developing the Model and its users. The evaluation involved 28 interviews with managers and clinicians making use of the Change Model in relation to a variety of projects. Interviews were fully transcribed and were analysed using an approach based on the Framework method. Participants saw the Change Model as valuable and practically useful. Fidelity to core principles of the Model was variable: participants often altered the Model, especially when using it to orchestrate the work of others. In challenging organisational contexts, the Change Model was sometimes used to delegitimise opposition rather than identify shared purpose among different interest groups. Those guiding change may benefit from frameworks, guidance and toolkits to structure and inform their planning and activities. Participants' experiences suggested the Change Model has much potential. Further work on its design and on supporting materials may optimise the approach, but its utility rests in particular on organisational cultures that support faithful application. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  8. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  9. A New Mathematical Framework for Design Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-05

    Kriging and Gaussian-Markov Random Fields, and 2. Bayesian optimization of the most crucial component of the H2-SWATH, namely, the supercavitating ...Brizzolara S. (-). Physics based Design by Opti- mization of Unconventional Supercavitating Hydrofoils. Under review for the Journal of Ship Research. 9

  10. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

    2018-01-01

    AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

  11. Transports and climate change: framework for public action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bureau, D.

    2008-01-01

    The author proposes an analysis of instruments to be implemented within the frame of a 'transports and climate change' sector-based plan. This analysis is based on a modelling of this sector, and includes some of the instruments proposed in the Stern report. After a presentation of this analysis framework, the author comments the issue of articulating technological policies and those aiming at the modification of behaviours through the setting of an appropriate price-signal. This aspect is further studied by taking a pre-existing substantial fuel taxing into account. Then the issue of articulation with transport policy is examined for the assessment of infrastructures which would be alternative to roads

  12. Pore closure in zeolitic imidazolate frameworks under mechanical pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henke, Sebastian; Wharmby, Michael T; Kieslich, Gregor; Hante, Inke; Schneemann, Andreas; Wu, Yue; Daisenberger, Dominik; Cheetham, Anthony K

    2018-02-14

    We investigate the pressure-dependent mechanical behaviour of the zeolitic imidazolate framework ZIF-4 (M(im) 2 ; M 2+ = Co 2+ or Zn 2+ , im - = imidazolate) with high pressure, synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction and mercury intrusion measurements. A displacive phase transition from a highly compressible open pore ( op ) phase with continuous porosity (space group Pbca , bulk modulus ∼1.4 GPa) to a closed pore ( cp ) phase with inaccessible porosity (space group P 2 1 / c , bulk modulus ∼3.3-4.9 GPa) is triggered by the application of mechanical pressure. Over the course of the transitions, both ZIF-4 materials contract by about 20% in volume. However, the threshold pressure, the reversibility and the immediate repeatability of the phase transition depend on the metal cation. ZIF-4(Zn) undergoes the op-cp phase transition at a hydrostatic mechanical pressure of only 28 MPa, while ZIF-4(Co) requires about 50 MPa to initiate the transition. Interestingly, ZIF-4(Co) fully returns to the op phase after decompression, whereas ZIF-4(Zn) remains in the cp phase after pressure release and requires subsequent heating to switch back to the op phase. These variations in high pressure behaviour can be rationalised on the basis of the different electron configurations of the respective M 2+ ions (3d 10 for Zn 2+ and 3d 7 for Co 2+ ). Our results present the first examples of op-cp phase transitions ( i.e. breathing transitions) of ZIFs driven by mechanical pressure and suggest potential applications of these functional materials as shock absorbers, nanodampers, or in mechanocalorics.

  13. Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

    2016-03-01

    Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

  14. The role of accounting practices in a radical change process : towards a comprehensive change framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer-Kooistra, Jeltje van der

    2001-01-01

    This paper is concerned with investigating the role of accounting practices in radical change processes. The institutional framework has been taken as a starting point in investigating these processes. The research has been carried out at the Dutch Railways. This company was forced by the Dutch

  15. Sustainability assessment of regional water resources under the DPSIR framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shikun; Wang, Yubao; Liu, Jing; Cai, Huanjie; Wu, Pute; Geng, Qingling; Xu, Lijun

    2016-01-01

    Fresh water is a scarce and critical resource in both natural and socioeconomic systems. Increasing populations combined with an increasing demand for water resources have led to water shortages worldwide. Current water management strategies may not be sustainable, and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize the water budget deficit. Sustainable water resources management is essential because it ensures the integration of social, economic, and environmental issues into all stages of water resources management. This paper establishes the indicators to evaluate the sustainability of water utilization based on the Drive-Pressure-Status-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, a comprehensive assessment of changes to the sustainability of the water resource system in the city of Bayannur was conducted using these indicators. The results indicate that there is an increase in the driving force of local water consumption due to changes in society, economic development, and the consumption structure of residents. The pressure on the water system increased, whereas the status of the water resources continued to decrease over the study period due to the increasing drive indicators. The local government adopted a series of response measures to relieve the decreasing water resources and alleviate the negative effects of the increasing driver in demand. The response measures improved the efficiency of water usage to a large extent, but the large-scale expansion in demands brought a rebounding effect, known as ;Jevons paradox; At the same time, the increasing emissions of industrial and agriculture pollutants brought huge pressures to the regional water resources environment, which caused a decrease in the sustainability of regional water resources. Changing medium and short-term factors, such as regional economic pattern, technological levels, and water utilization practices, can contribute to the sustainable utilization of

  16. Testing a Conceptual Change Model Framework for Visual Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finson, Kevin D.; Pedersen, Jon E.

    2015-01-01

    An emergent data analysis technique was employed to test the veracity of a conceptual framework constructed around visual data use and instruction in science classrooms. The framework incorporated all five key components Vosniadou (2007a, 2007b) described as existing in a learner's schema: framework theory, presuppositions, conceptual domains,…

  17. QUESTIONS TO REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS UNDER IFRS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Shvets

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With the system approach in article analyzes the situation and problems of legal regulation and providing accounting and financial reporting in terms of standardization and harmonization of the principles of IFRS. The evaluation of the provisions and objectives of the strategy for reform of accounting and reporting rules and the requirements of European integration processes. Analyzed and determined the degree of influence of accounting and analytical science and education for the development and implementation of new approaches to the reform process and regulation of accounting, control and audit. critical analysis of the draft amendments to the existing regulations, current views on instytutsiynist accounting under uncertainty and systemic crisis outlined organizational problems and possible solutions to methodological council of accounting.

  18. 78 FR 27953 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ... terminate authority for Sites 20-22 if no foreign-status merchandise is admitted for a bona fide customs... Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania Pursuant to its authority under the... application to the Board (FTZ Docket B-79-2012, docketed 11-1-2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF...

  19. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    -curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous be-haviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of ad-justing the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were tak-en. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Fur-ther research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.

  20. A multidimensional framework of conceptual change for developing chemical equilibrium learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanyoo, Wassana; Suwannoi, Paisan; Treagust, David F.

    2018-01-01

    The purposes of this research is to investigate the existing chemical equilibrium lessons in Thailand based on the multidimensional framework of conceptual change, to determine how the existing lessons could enhance students' conceptual change. This research was conducted based on qualitative perspective. Document, observations and interviews were used to collect data. To comprehend all students conceptions, diagnostic tests were applied comprised of The Chemical Equilibrium Diagnostic Test (the CEDT) and The Chemical Equilibrium Test for Reveal Conceptual Change (the CETforRCC). In addition, to study students' motivations, the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (the MSLQ) and students' task engagement were applied. Following each perspective of conceptual change - ontological, epistemological, and social/affective - the result showed that the existing chemical equilibrium unit did not enhance students' conceptual change, and some issues were found. The problems obstructed students conceptual change should be remedy under the multidimensional framework of conceptual change. Finally, some suggestions were provided to enhance students' conceptual change in chemical equilibrium effectively

  1. Analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning management in the 21st Century under education THAILAND 4.0 framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedaman, Pornchai; Buaraphan, Khajornsak; Pimdee, Paitoon; Yuenyong, Chokchai; Sukkamart, Aukkapong; Suksup, Charoen

    2018-01-01

    This article aims to study and analyze the 21st Century of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework, and factor analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative approaches in collecting data including a questionnaire survey, a documentary review and a Participatory Action Learning (PAL). The sample were sampling purposively. There were 225 administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Area Offices throughout Thailand. Out of 225, 183 (83.33%) and 42 (16.67%) respondents were the administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Offices, respectively. The quantitative data was analyzed by descriptive statistical analysis including mean, standard deviation. Also, the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was conducted to analyze the factors associated with sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework. The qualitative data was analyzed by using three main stages, i.e., data reduction, data organization, data interpretation to conclusion. The study revealed that sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework needs to focus on development, awareness of duty and responsibility, equality, moral and knowledge. All aspects should be integrated together in order to achieve the organizational goals, good governance culture and identity. Importantly, there were six "key" elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework: i) Professional Leadership Role, ii) Leadership Under Change, iii) Leadership Skills 4.0 in the 21st Century, iv) Development in the Pace With Change, v) Creativity and Creative Tension, and vi) Hold True Assessments. The CFA showed that the six key elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework by weight of each elements were significant at the .01 significance level.

  2. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  3. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

    2009-04-01

    Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

  5. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    The FDA hydrolysis capacities and bacterial biomass concentrations (estimated by determination of ATP content) of growth cultures prepared from activated sludge and wastewater, were measured to find out whether the FDA activity would reflect bacterial biomass under different physiological states...... of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils...... revealed differences up to two orders of magnitude of the ratio. Based on these results it was concluded that the FDA activity should not be applied for measurements of viable biomass in environments in which different physiological conditions occur....

  6. Framework agreement on climate change: a scientific and policy history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hecht, A.D.; Tirpak, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is a mixture of journalism and history. It is journalistic in the sense of providing an annotated chronology of key events and publications since 1970 that ultimately led to the signing of the Framework Agreement on Climate Change (herein referred to as the Convention). It is also history in that the authors share their insight on these events and offer their perspective of how science and policy-making interacted. After the signing of the Climate Convention at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (June, 1992), the authors began to think about the many events that led to this historic agreements. When did the process really begin? What were the seminal scientific papers? When did climate change become a policy issue? What lessons do we learn for the future? The authors soon recognized there was no clear beginning to either the science or policy story. Both aspects evolved, with science and policy decisions affecting each other. The resulting history is decidedly a US perspective. While there will no doubt be arguments over the significance of all the events cited as well as the omission of others, the authors have for the first time synthesized the major themes that led to the climate convention. The discussion is organized into three periods of time: 1970-1980 (ending with the first World Climate Conference), 1980-1987 (ending with the US presidential election), and 1988-1992 (signing of the Convention). For each period there is an overall summary and analysis followed by a chronology of selected events. 52 refs

  7. The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiabai, Aline; Quiroga, Sonia; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo; Higgins, Sahran; Taylor, Tim

    2018-09-01

    This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  9. 77 FR 44582 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 183 Under Alternative Site Framework; Austin, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-30

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1843] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 183 Under Alternative Site Framework; Austin, TX Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... Austin Customs and Border Protection port of entry, and FTZ 183's existing Sites 1 through 24 would be...

  10. 76 FR 4865 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-27

    ... Commission, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 104, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 51-2010... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1736] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign...

  11. 76 FR 28213 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1758] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... Foreign-Trade Zone 51, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 58-2010, filed 10/1/2010, amended...

  12. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  13. New framework for the new era the legislative change in the Japanese utility industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myoi, Hajime

    1996-01-01

    The on-going amendment activity to the legislative framework of the Japanese electric utility industry is discussed. A new strategy for the Japanese utility industry is necessary to meet the challenges in the future. Flexibility and mobility are becoming more important in order to overcome the problems ahead, and the new framework for the industry has to be harmonious with these characteristics. A bill to amend the Japanese Utility Industry Law, is under discussion in the Japanese Parliament. One aspect of the bill is the change in business regulation policy which is expected to increase competition in the industry. A new pricing policy, also a feature of the bill, will contribute to load leveling and an improvement of the load factor in Japanese power companies. (author)

  14. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is often...

  15. Forecasting autoregressive time series under changing persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson

    Changing persistence in time series models means that a structural change from nonstationarity to stationarity or vice versa occurs over time. Such a change has important implications for forecasting, as negligence may lead to inaccurate model predictions. This paper derives generally applicable...

  16. Mechanisms of microstructural changes of fuel under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, P.; Carlot, G.; Dorado, B.; Maillard, S.; Sabathier, C.; Martin, G.; Oh, J.Y.; Welland, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear fuels are subjected to high levels of radiation damage mainly due to the slowing of fission fragments, which results in substantial modifications of the initial fuel microstructure. Microstructure changes alter practically all engineering fuel properties such as atomic transport or thermomechanical properties so understanding these changes is essential to predicting the performance of fuel elements. Also, with increasing burn-up, the fuel drifts away from its initial composition as the fission process produces new chemical elements. Because nuclear fuels operate at high temperature and usually under high-temperature gradients, damage annealing, foreign atom or defect clustering and migration occur on multiple time and length scales, which make long-term predictions difficult. The end result is a fuel microstructure which may show extensive differences on the scale of a single fuel pellet. The main challenge we are faced with is, therefore, to identify the phenomena occurring on the atom scale that are liable to have macroscopic effects that will determine the microstructure changes and ultimately the life-span of a fuel element. One step towards meeting this challenge is to develop and apply experimental or modelling methods capable of connecting events that occur over very short length and timescales to changes in the fuel microstructure over engineering length and timescales. In the first part of this chapter, we provide an overview of some of the more important microstructure modifications observed in nuclear fuels. The emphasis is placed on oxide fuels because of the extensive amount of data available in relation to these materials under neutron or ion irradiation. When possible and relevant, the specifics of other types of fuels such as metallic or carbide fuels are alluded to. Throughout this chapter but more specifically in the latter part, we attempt to give examples of how modelling and experimentation at various scales can provide us with

  17. A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, Paul D.; Wolock, David M.; Coupe, Richard H.; Roth, Jason L.

    2018-01-10

    Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity.The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables

  18. Care Professions under change - A poster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedsegaard, Helle Wendner; Rask Eriksen, Tine

    Delresultaterne fra forskningsprojektet "Omsorg under forandring" præsenteres. I undersøgelsen indgår spørgskemaundersøgelse med 81 sygeplejerskestuderende og livshistoriske interviews af 9 sygeplejestuderende. På baggrund heraf opstilles 3 casekonstruktioner: Lone fra småborgerskabet, Mette fra ...

  19. Life in Europe under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alcamo, J.; Olesen, Jørgen E

    Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked...... changes in vegetation cover, increased floods along rivers and coastlines as well as more frequent droughts and forest fires, often leading to large societal costs. The changes will be minor in some cases, profound in others, but in any case, pervasive.......Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked...

  20. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  1. Modeling Nonlinear Change via Latent Change and Latent Acceleration Frameworks: Examining Velocity and Acceleration of Growth Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin; Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Mazzocco, Michele

    2013-01-01

    We propose the use of the latent change and latent acceleration frameworks for modeling nonlinear growth in structural equation models. Moving to these frameworks allows for the direct identification of "rates of change" and "acceleration" in latent growth curves--information available indirectly through traditional growth…

  2. Investment Under Uncertainty and Policy Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    Existing real options literature provides relatively little insight into the impact of structural changes of the economic environment on the investment decision of the firm.We propose a method to model the impact of a policy change on investment behavior in which, contrary to the earlier models

  3. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  4. Dental Usage Under Changing Economic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manski, Richard J.; Moeller, John F.; Chen, Haiyan; Schimmel, Jody; St Clair, Patricia A.; Pepper, John V.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between changes in household finances (wealth and income) and changes in dental utilization at the onset of the recent recession in a population of older Americans. Methods Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were analyzed for U.S. individuals aged 51 years and older during the 2006 and 2008 waves of the HRS. We estimated logistic models of (1) starting and (2) stopping dental use between 2006 and 2008 survey periods as a function of changes in household wealth and income, controlling for other potentially confounding covariates. Results We found that only when household wealth falls by 50 percent or more were older adults less likely to seek dental care. Changes in household income and other changes in household wealth were not associated with changes in dental utilization among this population. Conclusions Older Americans’ dental care utilization appeared to be fairly resilient to changes in household finances; only when wealth fell by 50 percent or more did individuals decrease dental use. This finding might extend to other health care services that are preventive, routine, and relatively inexpensive. PMID:22994647

  5. A framework for the economic valuation of land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.; Groot, de R.S.

    2007-01-01

    There is a broad recognition that sustainable land management (SLM) is crucial for ensuring an adequate, long-term supply of food, raw materials and other services provided by the natural environment to the human society. This paper presents a methodological framework for analyzing the benefits of

  6. A Framework for School Change--The School Portfolio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Victoria L.

    The "Education for the Future Initiative" is a national, privately-funded program initially sponsored by the Telesis Foundation and recently joined by Arthur Andersen & Co. to help schools undertake continuous improvement. The Initiative has pioneered a framework for school improvement in the form of a school portfolio. This document offers a…

  7. Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the

  8. The influence of changing framework conditions on tourism: The case of the Russian Federation

    OpenAIRE

    Kochurova, Elena; Keller, Peter

    2017-01-01

    This conceptual bachelor thesis is an attempt to approach the important question of the impact of the framework conditions on the growth and the development of tourism of a given country. In a first step the relevant political and economic framework conditions for tourism are defined. In a second step, the main forms of systemic, cyclic, structural and stochastic of changes of these framework conditions are analyzed. In a third step, a model presenting the probable impacts of changes of ...

  9. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and

  10. HSE under ever-changing conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiborg, R.

    1996-01-01

    The paper relates to the health, safety and environment (HSE) area on the Ekofisk field on the Norwegian continental shelf. Experience from the first twenty years operation indicated that rapid forced change to introduce new technology and work methods had a tendency to increase the number of negative events in HSE. In 1991/92 significant changes had to be initiated in order to continue safe operations, reduce downtime, deliver the service expected by third parties and secure economically viable operations into the next century. The last 4-5 years prove that a motivated work force, with solid well planned programs and the right tools, can achieve both improved HSE performance and reduce shut-downs in the middle of accelerated change programs. 14 figs

  11. A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

    2016-01-01

    Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

  12. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and Kyoto protocol 2010. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2008; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2010. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strogies, Michael; Gniffke, Patrick (comps.)

    2010-06-15

    As a Party to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since 1994 Germany has been obliged to prepare, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force. As a result, for the first time ever the international community of nations is required to implement binding action objectives and instruments for global climate protection. This leads to extensive obligations vis-a-vis the preparation, reporting and review of emissions inventories. As a result of Europe's own implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, via the adoption of EU Decision 280/20041, these requirements became legally binding for Germany in spring 2004. Pursuant to Decision 3/CP.5, all The purpose of such reports is to ensure the transparency, consistency and comparability of inventories and support the independent review process. The Secretariat of the Framework Convention on Climate Change has made submission of the inventory report a pre-requisite for performance of the agreed inventory reviews. Germany now presents its eighth National Inventory Report (NIR 2010), following its inventories for the years 1990 to 2008. This latest report covers the same period (1990 to 2008), and it describes the methods and the data sources on which the calculations are based. This year, the NIR contains, for the first time, an additional Part II, along with additional sub-chapters in the existing part, in conformance with expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant decisions at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, this chapter describes the basic principles and methods with which the emissions and sinks of the IPCC categories

  13. Adaptation in climate change hotspots: Change under way in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-26

    Jan 26, 2015 ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) aims to build the resilience of poor people to climate change in three climate change “hot spots”: basins, deltas, and semi-arid regions. In each of these areas, large numbers of poor people depend on climate sensitive sectors for ...

  14. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  15. Change in Soil Porosity under Load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyba, V. P.; Skibin, E. G.

    2017-11-01

    The theoretical basis for the process of soil compaction under various loading paths is considered in the article, the theoretical assumptions are compared with the results of the tests of clay soil on a stabilometer. The variant of the critical state model of the sealing plastic-rigid environment is also considered the strength characteristics of which depend on the porosity coefficient. The loading surface is determined by the results of compression and stabilometrical tests. In order to clarify the results of this task, it is necessary to carry out stabilometric tests under conditions of simple loading, i.e. where the vertical pressure would be proportional to the compression pressure σ3 = kσ1. Within the study the attempts were made to confirm the model given in the beginning of the article by laboratory tests. After the analysis of the results, the provided theoretical assumptions were confirmed.

  16. Dislocation density changes in nickel under creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moiseeva, I.V.; Okrainets, P.N.; Pishchak, V.K.

    1984-01-01

    Variation in dislocation density was studied in the process of nickel creep p at t=900 deg c and σ=2 kgf/mm 2 . The dislocation structure was studied independently by the X-ray technique and transmission electron-microscopy. The e two methods show good conformity of results by comparison. It is concluded that independent determination of dislocation density under creep is possible us sing the X-ray technique

  17. New insights into health financing: First results of the international data collection under the System of Health Accounts 2011 framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Michael; Morgan, David

    2017-07-01

    International comparisons of health spending and financing are most frequently carried out using datasets of international organisations based on the System of Health Accounts (SHA). This accounting framework has recently been updated and 2016 saw the first international data collection under the new SHA 2011 guidelines. In addition to reaching better comparability of health spending figures and greater country coverage, the updated framework has seen changes in the dimension of health financing leading to important consequences when analysing health financing data. This article presents the first results of health spending and financing data collected under this new framework and highlights the areas where SHA 2011 has become a more useful tool for policy analysis, by complementing data on expenditure of health financing schemes with information about their revenue streams. It describes the major conceptual changes in the scope of health financing and highlights why comprehensive analyses based on SHA 2011 can provide for a more complete description and comparison of health financing across countries, facilitate a more meaningful discussion of fiscal sustainability of health spending by also analysing the revenues of compulsory public schemes and help to clarify the role of governments in financing health care - which is generally much bigger than previously documented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  19. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  20. The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework; Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Credibility?

    OpenAIRE

    Takatoshi Ito; Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

    1997-01-01

    In recent years the Bank of Canada has made important changes in the way it conducts monetary policy. In particular, the bank has adopted explicit inflation targets and introduced significant changes to its operational framework designed to increase transparency and reduce market uncertainty. This paper examines the key issues associated with the recent changes in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework and analyzes various indicators of central bank credibility.

  1. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  2. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iago Lowe Hale

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use. The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture.

  3. Food and Sustainability Challenges Under Climate Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2016-12-01

    Plants are permanently impacted by their environments, and their abilities to tolerate multiple fluctuating environmental conditions vary as a function of several genetic and natural factors. Over the past decades, scientific innovations and applications of the knowledge derived from biotechnological investigations to agriculture caused a substantial increase of the yields of many crops. However, due to exacerbating effects of climate change and a growing human population, a crisis of malnutrition may arise in the upcoming decades in some places in the world. So, effective, ethical and managerial regulations and fair policies should be set up and applied at the local and global levels so that Earth may fairly provide the food and living accommodation needed by its inhabitants. To save some energy consumption, electric devices (for e.g., smartphones, laptops, street lights, traffic lights, etc.) should be manufactured to work with solar energy, whenever available, particularly in sunny countries where sun is available most of the time. Such characteristic will save energy and make solar energy-based smartphones and laptops less cumbersome in terms of chargers and plugging issues.

  4. The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, J.

    2012-12-01

    Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this

  5. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  6. A Scientific Decision Framework for Supplier Selection under Interval Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Krishankumar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new scientific decision framework (SDF under interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF environment for supplier selection (SS. The framework consists of two phases, where, in the first phase, criteria weights are estimated in a sensible manner using newly proposed IVIF based statistical variance (SV method and, in the second phase, the suitable supplier is selected using ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing REality ranking method under IVIF environment. This method involves three categories of outranking, namely, strong, moderate, and weak. Previous studies on ELECTRE ranking reveal that scholars have only used two categories of outranking, namely, strong and weak, in the formulation of IVIF based ELECTRE, which eventually aggravates fuzziness and vagueness in decision making process due to the potential loss of information. Motivated by this challenge, third outranking category, called moderate, is proposed, which considerably reduces the loss of information by improving checks to the concordance and discordance matrices. Thus, in this paper, IVIF-ELECTRE (IVIFE method is presented and popular TOPSIS method is integrated with IVIFE for obtaining a linear ranking. Finally, the practicality of the proposed framework is demonstrated using SS example and the strength of proposed SDF is realized by comparing the framework with other similar methods.

  7. Applying & Publishing GRI framework in Transport Companies Rethink. Redesign. Rebuild. CSR Reporting and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Soares Outtes Wanderley

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Corporations with systematic relationships to tourism are developing activities and publishing CSR reports applying the GRI framework (GRI, 2009. The contribution of tourism to climate change is estimated at between 5% and 12% and by 2050 the amount spent on the tourism sector will consume the entire carbon budget required to avoid dangerous climate change (Scott et al. 2009, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008. This study defines the TC-8 group, a group of transport in tourism related companies, in order to answer the main questions:To what extent is climate change addressed in the CSR reports of transport companies? Climate change is mentioned and receives attention in all of the company reports analysed, however,overall the transport sector shows that in comparison to the GRI/KPMG (2007 survey, it under-performs. Are the companies just reporting direct emissions from production or also broader emissions from the use of the products? Half of these companies report emissions; some include direct and indirect emissions. Further actions can be mentioned such as, companies participating in forums discussing solutions to climate change, assuming shared responsibilities and employing measures such as reducing energy consumption by runningtheir own photovoltaic power unit or planning for a CO2 neutral operation by 2012.

  8. Altering the Climate of Poverty under Climate Change : the Forests ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to underscore the importance of the Congo basin forests in climate ... Shaping forest safety nets with markets : adaptation to climate change under changing roles ... Driving vaccine innovations to improve lives and livelihoods.

  9. Sustainable Change Sequence: a framework for developing behavior change interventions for patients with long-term conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Elwyn, Glyn; Marrin, Katy; Frosch, Dominick; White, James

    2014-01-01

    Objective\\ud \\ud Interactive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare...

  10. Alternative fuels from forest residues for passenger cars - an assessment under German framework conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Hurtig, O.; Leible, L.; Kälber, S.; Kappler, g.; Spicher, U.

    2014-01-01

    Background Due to the available volumes, biogenic residues are a promising resource for renewable fuels for passenger cars to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, we compare three fuels from forest residues under German framework conditions: biogenic electricity, substitute natural gas (SNG), and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) diesel. Methods Fuels from forest residues are compared with regard to their technical efficiency (here defined as ‘pkm per kg b...

  11. Diagnosing Management of Agricultural Research and Technology Development under the Agricultural Innovation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying and analyzing issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework. The survey consisted of two groups: agricultural researchers of Agriculture-Research and Education Organization and all faculty members of public agricultural faculties of Ministry of Scientific, Research and Technology. Using Cochran sampling formula and multi-stage sampling method, 188 researchers and 205 faculty members were selected in order to fill in the survey questionnaire. Using the SPSS, collected data analyzed based on explanatory factor analysis. Totally, factor analysis of three sets of issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework led to extract 13 factors, including agricultural structure and policy, infrastructure and resources of agricultural development, supportive services for agricultural development (level of agricultural development, investment and capacity building in research and technology, management of research and technology development, research and technology productivity, research culture, networks for research and technology development (level of national innovation system, agricultural research policy, impacts and effectiveness of agricultural research and technology development, integrated management of research and technology, institutional development for agricultural research and technology and systematic synergy of agricultural research and higher education (level of agricultural innovation system. Totally, these three sets of factors explained 64%, 75% and 73% of the total variances. Finally, using conceptual clustering for the extracted factors, a conceptual model of issues and challenges of agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework was presented.

  12. An ontological framework for requirement change management in distributed environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatoon, A.; Hafeez, Y.; Ali, T.

    2014-01-01

    Global Software Development (GSD) is getting fame in the software industry gradually. However, in GSD, multiple and diverse stakeholders are involved in the development of complex software systems. GSD introduces several challenges, i.e. physical distance, time zone, culture difference, language barriers. As requirements play a significant role in any software development. The greatest challenge in GSD environment is to maintain a consistent view of the system even if the requirements change. But at the same time single change in the requirement might affect several other modules. In GSD different people use terms and have different ways of expressing the concepts for which people at remote sites are unable to get uniformity regarding the semantics of the terms. In a global environment requires effective communication and coordination. However, to overcome inconsistencies and ambiguities among the team members and to make the team members aware of the consistent view, a shared and common understanding is required. In this paper an approach beneficial to software industry has been proposed, focusing on changing requirements in a Global Software Development environment. A case study has been used for the evaluation of the proposed approach. Therefore, Requirements change management process has been improved by applying the approach of the case study. The proposed approach is beneficial to the software development organizations where frequent changes occur. It guided the software industry to provide the common understandings to all the development teams residing in remote locations. (author)

  13. Education and change management in Africa : a new framework for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study describes the nature of human capital development (HCD) in agriculture and rural development, and its implications on current programmes in the institutions of higher learning. This is in view of the fact that the majority of Africans are still trapped in an under performing rural and agricultural environment; and ...

  14. Uncertainty in project phases: A framework for organisational change management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie; Balangalibun, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    in the early stage of the change project but was delayed until later phases. Furthermore, the sources of uncertainty were found to be predominantly within the organisation that initiated the change project and connected to the project scope. Based on these findings, propositions for future research are defined......Uncertainty is an integral challenge when managing organisational change projects (OCPs). Current literature highlights the importance of uncertainty; however, falls short of giving insights into the nature of uncertainty and suggestions for managing it. Specifically, no insights exist on how...... uncertainty develops over the different phases of OCPs. This paper presents case-based evidence on different sources of uncertainty in OCPs and how these develop over the different project phases. The results showed some surprising findings as the majority of the uncertainty did not manifest itself...

  15. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2011. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2009; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2011. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-06-15

    As a Party to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since 1994 Germany has been obliged to prepare, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force. As a result, for the first time ever the international community of nations is required to implement binding action objectives and instruments for global climate protection. As a result of Europe's own implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, via the adoption of EU Decision 280/20041, these requirements became legally binding for Germany in spring 2004. The Secretariat of the Framework Convention on Climate Change has made submission of the inventory report a pre-requisite for performance of the agreed inventory reviews. Germany now presents its ninth National Inventory Report (NIR 2011), following its inventories for the years 1990 to 2009. This latest report covers the same period (1990 to 2009), and it describes the methods and the data sources on which the calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and, as far as possible, in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). This year, the NIR contains, for the first time, an additional Part II, along with additional sub-chapters in the existing part, in conformance with expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant decisions at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. Chapter 2 provides a general overview of development of

  16. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2011. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2009; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2011. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-06-15

    As a Party to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since 1994 Germany has been obliged to prepare, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force. As a result, for the first time ever the international community of nations is required to implement binding action objectives and instruments for global climate protection. As a result of Europe's own implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, via the adoption of EU Decision 280/20041, these requirements became legally binding for Germany in spring 2004. The Secretariat of the Framework Convention on Climate Change has made submission of the inventory report a pre-requisite for performance of the agreed inventory reviews. Germany now presents its ninth National Inventory Report (NIR 2011), following its inventories for the years 1990 to 2009. This latest report covers the same period (1990 to 2009), and it describes the methods and the data sources on which the calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and, as far as possible, in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). This year, the NIR contains, for the first time, an additional Part II, along with additional sub-chapters in the existing part, in conformance with expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant decisions at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. Chapter 2 provides a general overview of

  17. 76 FR 771 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 14 Under Alternative Site Framework; Little Rock, AR

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1729] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 14 Under Alternative Site Framework; Little Rock, AR Pursuant to its authority under... the Little Rock Customs and Border [[Page 772

  18. Institutional framework in relation to climate change in West and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-12-16

    Dec 16, 2010 ... This paper maps the institutions working in West and Central Africa on issues related to climate change, vulnerability, and adaptation, and assesses a range of institutional strengths and weaknesses. Representatives of 16 institutions in the sub region were surveyed and interviewed.

  19. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K; Buhr, Gwendolen T; McConnell, Eleanor S; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S

    2015-08-01

    To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. A simulation framework for asset management in climate-change adaptation of transportation infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhamidipati, S.K.

    2014-01-01

    An asset management framework, in an agent-based model with multiple assets, is presented as a tool that can assist in developing long-term climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure.

  1. A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system

    OpenAIRE

    Ebersberger, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system / A. Pyka, B. Ebersberger, H. Hanusch. - In: Evolution and economic complexity / ed. J. Stanley Metcalfe ... - Cheltenham [u.a.] : Elgar, 2004. - S. 191-213

  2. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalby, J.; Nielsen, L.S.; Lueg, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498.......Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498....

  3. A Framework for Modelling Connective Tissue Changes in VIIP Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, C. R.; Best, L.; Gleason, R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.; Nelson, E. S.; Samuels, B. C.

    2014-01-01

    Insertion of astronauts into microgravity induces a cascade of physiological adaptations, notably including a cephalad fluid shift. Longer-duration flights carry an increased risk of developing Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, a spectrum of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, choroidal folds, distension of the optic nerve sheath, kinking of the optic nerve and potentially permanent degradation of visual function. The slow onset of changes in VIIP, their chronic nature, and the similarity of certain clinical features of VIIP to ophthalmic findings in patients with raised intracranial pressure strongly suggest that: (i) biomechanical factors play a role in VIIP, and (ii) connective tissue remodeling must be accounted for if we wish to understand the pathology of VIIP. Our goal is to elucidate the pathophysiology of VIIP and suggest countermeasures based on biomechanical modeling of ocular tissues, suitably informed by experimental data, and followed by validation and verification. We specifically seek to understand the quasi-homeostatic state that evolves over weeks to months in space, during which ocular tissue remodeling occurs. This effort is informed by three bodies of work: (i) modeling of cephalad fluid shifts; (ii) modeling of ophthalmic tissue biomechanics in glaucoma; and (iii) modeling of connective tissue changes in response to biomechanical loading.

  4. The shift of energy regulatory powers under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grimm, N. S.

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines the powers of Member States' national regulatory authorities under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive 2003/54/EC (OJEU L 176/37) and analyses the implications of framework of Directive 2009/72/EC on the national laws of the Member States, in particular on the Austrian and German constitutional, administrative and energy laws. The Introductory Part gives a historical overview of the development of national energy regulators under European energy legislation. This Part shows that the national regulatory authorities attract increased attention and that their regulatory powers are on a constant rise. In order to understand the huge impact of the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC on the regulatory regimes of the Member States, this Part briefly examines the former and current powers of the national energy regulators under Austrian and German law. Part Two analyses whether the powers conferred upon national energy regulators under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC have been enhanced in comparison to those established under the framework of Directive 2003/54/EC. The main focus lies thereby on the propositions made by the European Commission in its Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/54/EC concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity (COM (2007) 528 final, 2.1) and laid down in Directive 2009/72/EC. Part Two comes to the conclusion that the powers of the national energy regulators under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC have indeed been enhanced in comparison to former regime of Directive 2003/54/EC. Part Three demonstrates that the enhancement of national energy regulators' powers does not benefit the Member States. On the contrary, they lose considerable powers of control over their own national energy regulators. While

  5. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  6. Ordering theories: Typologies and conceptual frameworks for sociotechnical change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K; Hess, David J

    2017-01-01

    What theories or concepts are most useful at explaining socio technical change? How can – or cannot – these be integrated? To provide an answer, this study presents the results from 35 semi-structured research interviews with social science experts who also shared more than two hundred articles, reports and books on the topic of the acceptance, adoption, use, or diffusion of technology. This material led to the identification of 96 theories and conceptual approaches spanning 22 identified disciplines. The article begins by explaining its research terms and methods before honing in on a combination of fourteen theories deemed most relevant and useful by the material. These are: Sociotechnical Transitions, Social Practice Theory, Discourse Theory, Domestication Theory, Large Technical Systems, Social Construction of Technology, Sociotechnical Imaginaries, Actor-Network Theory, Social Justice Theory, Sociology of Expectations, Sustainable Development, Values Beliefs Norms Theory, Lifestyle Theory, and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology. It then positions these theories in terms of two distinct typologies. Theories can be placed into five general categories of being centered on agency, structure, meaning, relations or norms. They can also be classified based on their assumptions and goals rooted in functionalism, interpretivism, humanism or conflict. The article lays out tips for research methodology before concluding with insights about technology itself, analytical processes associated with technology, and the framing and communication of results. An interdisciplinary theoretical and conceptual inventory has much to offer students, analysts and scholars wanting to study technological change and society. PMID:28641502

  7. Biomass energy projects for joint implementation of the UN FCCC [Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swisher, Joel N.; Renner, Frederick P.

    1998-01-01

    The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) allows for the joint implementation (JI) of measures to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. The concept of JI refers to the implementation of such measures in one country with partial or full financial and/or technical support from another country, potentially fulfilling some of the supporting country's emission-reduction commitment under the FCCC. This paper addresses some key issues related to JI under the FCCC as they relate to the development of biomass energy projects for carbon offsets in developing countries. Issues include the reference case or baseline, carbon accounting and net carbon storage, potential project implementation barriers and risks, monitoring and verification, local agreements and host-country approval. All of these issues are important in project design and evaluation. We discuss briefly several case studies, which consist of a biomass-fueled co-generation projects under development at large sugar mills in the Philippines, India and Brazil, as potential JI projects. The case studies illustrate the benefits of bioenergy for reducing carbon emissions and some of the important barriers and difficulties in developing and crediting such projects. Results to date illustrate both the achievements and the difficulties of this type of project. (author)

  8. Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption in Cities by Utilizing Green Infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Davidson, Cliff I.; Jindal, Ranjina

    infrastructure frameworks with indicators from green building rating systems (LEED 2009, BCA Green Mark 4.0, CASBEE, and TREES-NC 1.0). The climate change mitigation and adaptation framework addresses benefits from applying different GI technologies as well as limitations in existing rating systems and the green......Climate change has threatened global security of ecosystems, human health and natural resources. These threats have increased demand for various mitigation technology solutions as well as effective strategies for adapting to anticipated impacts. Green infrastructure (GI) technologies such as green...... roofs and urban forestry are viewed as ones of the best climate adaptation strategies in cities. This study aims to develop a framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) in cities by using green infrastructure technologies. The framework is established by integrating existing green...

  9. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2012. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2010; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2012. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-06-15

    All Parties listed in ANNEX I of the UNFCCC are required to prepare and submit annual National Inventory Reports (NIRs) containing detailed and complete information on the entire process of preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. The purpose of such reports is to ensure the transparency, consistency and comparability of inventories and support the independent review process. Pursuant to decision 15/CMP.1, as of 2010 all of the countries listed in ANNEX I of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that are also parties to the Kyoto Protocol must submit annual inventories in order to be able to make use of flexible mechanisms pursuant to Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol. Together with the inventory tables, Germany submits a NIR, which refers to the period covered by the inventory tables and describes the methods and data sources on which the pertinent calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). The NIR contains a Part II, along with additional sub-chapters, that fulfill the expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant obligations at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse-gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. This section describes the National System pursuant to Article 5.1 of the Kyoto Protocol, which system is designed to aid and assure compliance with all reporting obligations with respect to atmospheric emissions and removals in sinks. In addition, this chapter describes the basic

  10. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2012. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2010; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2012. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-06-15

    All Parties listed in ANNEX I of the UNFCCC are required to prepare and submit annual National Inventory Reports (NIRs) containing detailed and complete information on the entire process of preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. The purpose of such reports is to ensure the transparency, consistency and comparability of inventories and support the independent review process. Pursuant to decision 15/CMP.1, as of 2010 all of the countries listed in ANNEX I of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that are also parties to the Kyoto Protocol must submit annual inventories in order to be able to make use of flexible mechanisms pursuant to Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol. Together with the inventory tables, Germany submits a NIR, which refers to the period covered by the inventory tables and describes the methods and data sources on which the pertinent calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). The NIR contains a Part II, along with additional sub-chapters, that fulfill the expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant obligations at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse-gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. This section describes the National System pursuant to Article 5.1 of the Kyoto Protocol, which system is designed to aid and assure compliance with all reporting obligations with respect to atmospheric emissions and removals in sinks. In addition, this chapter describes the basic

  11. Strategic Environmental Assessment Framework for Landscape-Based, Temporal Analysis of Wetland Change in Urban Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizo, Anton; Noble, Bram F; Bell, Scott

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the context of change analysis for urban wetland environments. The proposed framework is focused on two key stages of the SEA process: scoping and environmental baseline assessment. These stages are arguably the most information-intense phases of SEA and have a significant effect on the quality of the SEA results. The study aims to meet the needs for proactive frameworks to assess and protect wetland habitat and services more efficiently, toward the goal of advancing more intelligent urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting geographic information system and remote sensing tools and applications, supports the temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The framework was applied to a rapidly developing urban environment in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, analyzing wetland change and land-use pressures from 1985 to 2011. The SEA spatial scale was rescaled from administrative urban planning units to an ecologically meaningful area. Landscape change assessed was based on a suite of indicators that were subsequently rolled up into a single, multi-dimensional, and easy to understand and communicate index to examine the implications of land-use change for wetland sustainability. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land-use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability.

  12. A GIS framework for the assessment of tick impact on human health in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Peña, Agustin; Venzal, José M

    2007-05-01

    A framework to evaluate the impact of ticks on human health under various scenarios of climate change is proposed. The purpose is not to provide a comprehensive plan (e.g. the economic impact of ticks on human society is not included), instead we wish to describe a series of indices that would be helpful by obtaining homogeneous comparisons of impact and vulnerability exerted by ticks in different regions, countries or continents, using normalized sets of population, vegetation, climate and physical attributes of the territory. Three tick species, i.e. Dermacentor marginatus, Rhipicephalus turanicus and Hyalomma marginatum, have been traced over the territory of Spain to further explain the computation of these indices. The discussion is based on tick habitat suitability, used as a measure of the abiotic (climate) fitness of the habitat for the species in question, and the sensitivity of each tick species to the rate of change of habitat suitability with respect to climate change. The impact is the rate of change in habitat suitability weighted with a fuzzy logic function evaluating the total number of people in an area, percent of rural population and accessibility of the geographical divisions (expressed as hexagons with a 10 km radius) used in the study. The different climate scenarios evaluated in relation to ticks show that the north-western part of Spain would suffer the greatest impact in case the mean temperature would increase, while the Mediterranean region would suffer the highest impact if temperatures decreased. Vulnerability, based on the sanitary structure of the territory and on the impact on human activities due to the change in tick distribution and abundance, is proposed as a measure of adaptation of society to these climate scenarios. The cost is evaluated as a function of land use and tick habitat suitability in a buffer zone surrounding each geographic division. All indices proposed have been obtained by search of common and/or publicly

  13. A Comparative Study of Spatial Aggregation Methodologies under the BioEarth Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, B.; Rajagopalan, K.; Malek, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing probability of water resource scarcity due to climate change has highlighted the need for adopting an economic focus in modelling water resource uses. Hydro-economic models, developed by integrating economic optimization with biophysical crop models, are driven by the economic value of water, revealing it's most efficient uses and helping policymakers evaluate different water management strategies. One of the challenges in integrating biophysical models with economic models is the difference in the spatial scales in which they operate. Biophysical models that provide crop production functions typically run at smaller scale than economic models, and substantial spatial aggregation is required. However, any aggregation introduces a bias, i.e., a discrepancy between the functional value at the higher spatial scale and the value at the spatial scale of the aggregated units. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of net economic benefits in the Yakima River basin (YRB) to different spatial aggregation methods for crop production functions. The spatial aggregation methodologies that we compare involve agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and aggregation levels that reflect water management regimes (e.g. irrigation districts). Aggregation bias can distort the underlying data and result in extreme solutions. In order to avoid this we use an economic optimization model that incorporates the synthetic and historical crop mixes approach (Onal & Chen, 2012). This restricts the solutions between the weighted averages of historical and simulated feasible planting decisions, with the weights associated with crop mixes being treated as endogenous variables. This study is focused on 5 major irrigation districts of the YRB in the Pacific Northwest US. The biophysical modeling framework we use, BioEarth, includes the coupled hydrology and crop growth model, VIC-Cropsyst and an economic optimization model. Preliminary findings indicate that the standard approach

  14. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  15. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  16. Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research

    OpenAIRE

    Cane, James E.; O'Connor, Denise; Michie, Susan

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. Methods Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. Results The...

  17. A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

  18. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  19. Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

    2012-01-01

    The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

  20. Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

    2012-07-01

    The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

  1. simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  2. Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small Island States of the Caribbean. In the Caribbean islands, climate change is affecting freshwater availability and other ecosystem services in complex ways. For example, freshwater supply is diminished by droughts and affected by saline intrusion due to sea ...

  3. Flexible investment under uncertainty in smart distribution networks with demand side response: Assessment framework and practical implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schachter, Jonathan A.; Mancarella, Pierluigi; Moriarty, John; Shaw, Rita

    2016-01-01

    need altering. The case study results indicate that DSR can be an economical option to delay or even avoid large irreversible capacity investments, thus reducing overall costs for networks and end customers. However, in order for the value and benefits of DSR to be acknowledged, a change in the regulatory framework (currently based on deterministic analysis) that takes explicit account of uncertainty in planning, as suggested by our work, is required. - Highlights: • A real options framework for distribution network investments under uncertainty. • Smart (flexible) and asset-based investment values are compared transparently in Microsoft Excel. • Both economic and physical (interruption) risks are measured in a multi-criterion analysis. • Case study shows the value of demand response for deferring asset-based investments. • Probabilistic regulatory frameworks are thus needed to give flexible investments their fair value.

  4. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  5. Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Debbie

    2015-03-01

    Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

  6. 75 FR 29727 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 37 Under Alternative Site Framework Orange County, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-27

    ... Zone 37 Under Alternative Site Framework Orange County, NY Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, Orange County, New York, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 37... under the ASF with a service area of Orange County, New York, adjacent to the New York/Newark Customs...

  7. 78 FR 27364 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-10

    ... Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida Pursuant to its authority under the...-48-2012, docketed 6/27/2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF with a service area comprised... Everglades Customs and Border Protection port of entry, to modify Site 1 by removing acreage, to expand Sites...

  8. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  9. Material property changes of stainless steels under PWR irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukuya, Koji; Nishioka, Hiromasa; Fujii, Katsuhiko; Kamaya, Masayuki; Miura, Terumitsu; Torimaru, Tadahiko

    2009-01-01

    Structural integrity of core structural materials is one of the key issues for long and safe operation of pressurized water reactors. The stainless steel components are exposed to neutron irradiation and high-temperature water, which cause significant property changes and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) in some cases. Understanding of irradiation induced material property changes is essential to predict integrity of core components. In the present study, microstructure and microchemistry, mechanical properties, and IASCC behavior were examined in 316 stainless steels irradiated to 1 - 73 dpa in a PWR. Dose-dependent changes of dislocation loops and cavities, grain boundary segregation, tensile properties and fracture mode, deformation behavior, and their interrelation were discussed. Tensile properties and deformation behavior were well coincident with microstructural changes. IASCC susceptibility under slow strain rate tensile tests, IASCC initiation under constant load tests in simulated PWR primary water, and their relationship to material changes were discussed. (author)

  10. Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, James; O'Connor, Denise; Michie, Susan

    2012-04-24

    An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. There was good support for a refinement of the framework comprising 14 domains of theoretical constructs (average silhouette value 0.29): 'Knowledge', 'Skills', 'Social/Professional Role and Identity', 'Beliefs about Capabilities', 'Optimism', 'Beliefs about Consequences', 'Reinforcement', 'Intentions', 'Goals', 'Memory, Attention and Decision Processes', 'Environmental Context and Resources', 'Social Influences', 'Emotions', and 'Behavioural Regulation'. The refined Theoretical Domains Framework has a strengthened empirical base and provides a method for theoretically assessing implementation problems, as well as professional and other health-related behaviours as a basis for intervention development.

  11. The mitigation framework in the 2015 climate change agreement: from targets to pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Thomas; Colombier, Michel; Ribera, Teresa; Sha, Fu; Ji, Zou

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an effort between researchers from different countries and with different backgrounds to achieve an agreed text on an important issue in the climate negotiations through a thought experiment of 'think tank level negotiation'. It is a significant achievement for two groups of authors from China and Europe to have come this far. Countries have agreed to negotiate a new climate agreement by 2015. One of the key elements of this negotiation process will be a new mitigation framework and new emissions targets for all. How should the information that Parties put forward be structured, in order to promote participation, equity, transparency and ambition? The new agreement needs to find a way to allow the continuous strengthening of the action of sovereign states, to reflect the 2 deg. C objective. It will also need to provide a flexible and equitable framework for mitigation targets, to reflect both different levels of uncertainty and the large spectrum of countries and gaps in the development of different country groups. There is a need to shift out of the 'target mentality' and towards an understanding of climate change as the challenge of shifting long-term social, technological, investment and infra-structural pathways, as well as behaviours. Uncertainties in such structural processes may be particularly high in developing or emerging countries still undergoing industrialization, demographic shift, and urbanization. Mastering them requires long-term policy horizons, cooperation, technology innovation and policy learning, focusing on the drivers of emissions reductions. The Warsaw decision stated in 2013 that mitigation targets would be nationally-determined. In this context, the discussion around a global goal should no longer be seen as a basis for top-down allocation, but rather as a directional reference against which global progress must be assessed to identify the gap to be filled to foster enhanced action. It is essential to

  12. Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. Quinn

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather damages and disrupts transport infrastructure in a multitude of ways. Heavy rainfall and ensuing landslides or flooding may lead to road or rail closures; extreme heat can damage road surfaces, or cause tracks, signalling or electronic equipment to overheat, or thermal discomfort for passengers. As extreme weather is expected to occur more frequently in the future, transport infrastructure owners and operators must increase their preparedness in order to reduce weather-related service disruption and the associated financial costs. This article presents a two-sided framework for use by any organisation to develop climate-change-ready transport infrastructure, regardless of their current level of knowledge or preparedness for climate change. The framework is composed of an adaptation strategy and an implementation plan, and has the overarching ambition to embed climate change adaptation within organisational procedures so it becomes a normal function of business. It advocates adaptation pathways, i.e., sequential adaptive actions that do not compromise future actions. The circular, iterative structure ensures new knowledge, or socio-economic changes may be incorporated, and that previous adaptations are evaluated. Moreover, the framework aligns with existing asset management procedures (e.g., ISO standards or governmental or organisational approaches to climate change adaptation. By adopting this framework, organisations can self-identify their own level of adaptation readiness and seek to enhance it.

  13. Toward enhancing the distributed video coder under a multiview video codec framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Jiann-Jone; Tsai, Yao-Hong; Chen, Chin-Hua

    2016-11-01

    The advance of video coding technology enables multiview video (MVV) or three-dimensional television (3-D TV) display for users with or without glasses. For mobile devices or wireless applications, a distributed video coder (DVC) can be utilized to shift the encoder complexity to decoder under the MVV coding framework, denoted as multiview distributed video coding (MDVC). We proposed to exploit both inter- and intraview video correlations to enhance side information (SI) and improve the MDVC performance: (1) based on the multiview motion estimation (MVME) framework, a categorized block matching prediction with fidelity weights (COMPETE) was proposed to yield a high quality SI frame for better DVC reconstructed images. (2) The block transform coefficient properties, i.e., DCs and ACs, were exploited to design the priority rate control for the turbo code, such that the DVC decoding can be carried out with fewest parity bits. In comparison, the proposed COMPETE method demonstrated lower time complexity, while presenting better reconstructed video quality. Simulations show that the proposed COMPETE can reduce the time complexity of MVME to 1.29 to 2.56 times smaller, as compared to previous hybrid MVME methods, while the image peak signal to noise ratios (PSNRs) of a decoded video can be improved 0.2 to 3.5 dB, as compared to H.264/AVC intracoding.

  14. Quantitative Resilience Assessment under a Tri-Stage Framework for Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of natural disasters and malicious attacks has exerted unprecedented disturbances on power systems, accounting for the extensive attention paid to power system resilience. Combined with the evolving nature of general disasters, this paper proposes resilience assessment approaches for power systems under a tri-stage framework. The pre-disaster toughness is proposed to quantify the robustness of power systems against potential disasters, where the thinking of area division and partitioned multi-objective risk method (PMRM is introduced. In the case of information deficiency caused by disasters, the during-disaster resistance to disturbance is calculated to reflect the real-time system running state by state estimation (SE. The post-disaster restoration ability consists of response ability, restoration efficiency and restoration economy, which is evaluated by Sequential Monte-Carlo Simulation to simulate the system restoration process. Further, a synthetic metric system is presented to quantify the resilience performance of power systems from the above three aspects. The proposed approaches and framework are validated on the IEEE RTS 79 system, and helpful conclusions are drawn from extensive case studies.

  15. Decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, Shengping; Geng, Shuai

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The evaluation index system is set by the engineering and supply chain perspectives. • The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) to express the performances. • The IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of weights. - Abstract: The selection of appropriate photovoltaic module is of extremely high importance for the solar power station project; however the comprehensive problem of evaluation index system, the information loss problem and the lack-objectivity problem in the selection process will decrease the reasonability of the selection result. The innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the comprehensive evaluation index system of photovoltaic module is established from the engineering management and supply chain management perspectives to solve the comprehensive problem; second, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) are introduced into the photovoltaic modules selection process to express the alternatives’ performances to solve the information loss problem; third, the IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of the criteria’s weights. According to the aforementioned solutions, the decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment are established and used in a case study to demonstrate its effectiveness. Therefore, from the theoretical modeling and empirical demonstration, the decision framework proposed in this paper can effectively handle such a complicated problem and lead to an outstanding result.

  16. Changing Places, Changing Spaces? Towards Understanding Teacher Education through Space-Time Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jean

    2012-01-01

    This article draws together theoretical ideas from studies of space/spatiality and the history of teacher education. These ideas form a theoretical framework through which to analyse the findings from a small-scale ethnographic study of the geographical relocations made by two university schools of education in England. Data collection instruments…

  17. Improving energy efficiency in buildings under the framework of facility management and leasing financing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leutgoeb, Klemens [Austrian Energy Agency (Austria)

    2007-07-01

    Non-residential buildings see a big variety of building management and financing schemes. Two approaches quickly gain shares in the European real estate market: Leasing Financing (LF) and Facility Management (FM). They change the framework for the implementation of energy efficiency measures: LF influences the decision criteria in new construction and refurbishment; FM plays a crucial role during the operation phase.Although LF and FM introduce new parties and thus an additional set of interests, they must not be perceived as obstacles per se: They also offer new ways towards energy efficiency. Pilot activities in Austria demonstrate the successful integration of advanced energy services into the framework of LF and FM: At the end of the contract duration, leasing-financed buildings may be confronted with a need for comprehensive refurbishment. Here, leasing can become an important catalyst in preparing the refurbishment project. Integrating energy efficiency measures to the refurbishment activity and guaranteeing thermal-energetic qualities, provide the lessor with the opportunity to prolong and enlarge a running contract. Furthermore, this service reduces his credit risk, due to reduced running (i.e. energy) cost for the lessee. FM means outsourcing of selected building management functions to an external specialist. The list of requested services can be extended by the identification, implementation, operation and potentially also financing of cost-effective energy saving measures, and by a guarantee on energy cost savings - in other words by integrating elements of EPC-contracts into FM.

  18. Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    2013-01-01

    coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem......This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all...... and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes....

  19. Changing in tool steels wear resistance under electron irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braginskaya, A.E.; Manin, V.N.; Makedonskij, A.V.; Mel'nikova, N.A.; Pakchanin, L.M.; Petrenko, P.V.

    1983-01-01

    The tool steels and alloys wear resistance under dry friction after electron irradiation has been studied. Electron irradiation of a wide variety of steels is shown to increase wear resistance. In this case phase composition and lattice parameters changes are observed both in matrix and carbides. The conclusion is drawn that an appreciable increase of steel wear resistance under electron irradiation can be explained both by carbide phase volume gain and changes in it's composition and the formation of carbide phase submicroscopic heterogeneities and, possibly, complexes of defects

  20. A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

    2011-01-01

    The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

  1. A PCA-Based Change Detection Framework for Multidimensional Data Streams

    KAUST Repository

    Qahtan, Abdulhakim Ali Ali

    2015-08-10

    Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams is an important and challenging task. In unsupervised change detection, changes are usually detected by comparing the distribution in a current (test) window with a reference window. It is thus essential to design divergence metrics and density estimators for comparing the data distributions, which are mostly done for univariate data. Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams brings difficulties to the density estimation and comparisons. In this paper, we propose a framework for detecting changes in multidimensional data streams based on principal component analysis, which is used for projecting data into a lower dimensional space, thus facilitating density estimation and change-score calculations. The proposed framework also has advantages over existing approaches by reducing computational costs with an efficient density estimator, promoting the change-score calculation by introducing effective divergence metrics, and by minimizing the efforts required from users on the threshold parameter setting by using the Page-Hinkley test. The evaluation results on synthetic and real data show that our framework outperforms two baseline methods in terms of both detection accuracy and computational costs.

  2. The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Steyaert

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

  3. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-03-16

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  4. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

  5. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Banwell

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  6. Applying psychological frameworks of behaviour change to improve healthcare worker hand hygiene: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srigley, J A; Corace, K; Hargadon, D P; Yu, D; MacDonald, T; Fabrigar, L; Garber, G

    2015-11-01

    Despite the importance of hand hygiene in preventing transmission of healthcare-associated infections, compliance rates are suboptimal. Hand hygiene is a complex behaviour and psychological frameworks are promising tools to influence healthcare worker (HCW) behaviour. (i) To review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behaviour change to improve HCW hand hygiene compliance; (ii) to determine which frameworks have been used to predict HCW hand hygiene compliance. Multiple databases and reference lists of included studies were searched for studies that applied psychological theories to improve and/or predict HCW hand hygiene. All steps in selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed independently by two reviewers. The search yielded 918 citations; seven met eligibility criteria. Four studies evaluated hand hygiene interventions based on psychological frameworks. Interventions were informed by goal setting, control theory, operant learning, positive reinforcement, change theory, the theory of planned behaviour, and the transtheoretical model. Three predictive studies employed the theory of planned behaviour, the transtheoretical model, and the theoretical domains framework. Interventions to improve hand hygiene adherence demonstrated efficacy but studies were at moderate to high risk of bias. For many studies, it was unclear how theories of behaviour change were used to inform the interventions. Predictive studies had mixed results. Behaviour change theory is a promising tool for improving hand hygiene; however, these theories have not been extensively examined. Our review reveals a significant gap in the literature and indicates possible avenues for novel research. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Changing Paradigm for Supporting Aging Individuals' Health and Well-Being: A Framework for Professional Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemeny, Elizabeth; Mabry, J. Beth

    2015-01-01

    This study addresses the transfer of training to quality care practices among leisure services professionals who serve older adults by applying the Social Structure and Personality approach, a social psychology framework that accounts for layers of influence in that process. Multiple demographic and policy changes contribute to a need for a…

  8. The U.S. forest carbon accounting framework: stocks and stock change, 1990-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; John W. Coulston; Grant M. Domke; Brian F. Walters; David N. Wear; James E. Smith; Hans-Erik Andersen; Brian J. Clough; Warren B. Cohen; Douglas M. Griffith; Stephen C. Hagen; Ian S. Hanou; Michael C. Nichols; Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Matthew B. Russell; Jim Westfall; Barry T. (Ty) Wilson

    2015-01-01

    As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States annually prepares an inventory of carbon that has been emitted and sequestered among sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, and forests). For many years, the United States developed an inventory of forest carbon by comparing contemporary forest inventories to inventories that...

  9. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  10. Understanding Global Change: A New Conceptual Framework To Guide Teaching About Planetary Systems And Both The Causes And Effects Of Changes In Those Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.; Bean, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    Goals of the Next Generation Science Standards include understanding climate change and learning about ways to moderate the causes and mitigate the consequences of planetary-scale anthropogenic activities that interact synergistically to affect ecosystems and societies. The sheer number and scale of both causes and effects of global change can be daunting for teachers, and the lack of a clear conceptual framework for presenting this material usually leads educators (and textbooks) to present these phenomenon as a disjointed "laundry list." But an alternative approach is in the works. The Understanding Global Change web resource, currently under development at the UC Berkeley Museum of Paleontology, will provide educators with a conceptual framework, graphic models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS-aligned, interdisciplinary, global change curricula. The core of this resource is an original informational graphic that presents and relates Earth's global systems, human and non-human factors that produce changes in those systems, and the effects of those changes that scientists can measure.

  11. Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-11

    Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

  12. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  13. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  14. European Research Framework Programme. Research on Climate Change. Prepared for the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3) and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-15)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This publication gathers the abstracts of European research projects on climate change and related to climate change which have been completed recently or are ongoing under the sixth and seventh framework programmes for research. This document aims at providing a relevant overview of research activities on climate change funded by the European Community to participants to the third World Climate Conference held in Geneva in August 2009 and to the UNFCCC 15th Conference of the Parties meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.

  15. Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Kupika

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs, address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector. Keywords: mainstreaming, biodiversity, wildlife, climate change policy, east and southern Africa

  16. Growth-Maximizing Public Debt under Changing Demographics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokan, Nikola; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an overlapping-generations model to study the growth-maximizing level of public debt under conditions of demograhic change. It is shown that the optimal debt level depends on a positive marginal productivity of public capital. In general, it also depends on the demographic par...... will have to adjust its fiscal plans to accommodate those changes, most likely downward, if growth is to be preserved. An advantage of this model is that it allows us to determine in advance the way in which fiscal policies need to adjust as demographic parameters change....

  17. Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological conditions. Ali A Kherd, Nawal Helmi, Khadijah Saeed Balamash, Taha A Kumosani, Shareefa A AL-Ghamdi, Qari M, Etimad A Huwait, Soonham S Yaghmoor, Alaama Nabil, Maryam A AL-Ghamdi, Said S Moselhy ...

  18. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc Hero

    2011-01-01

    Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...

  19. A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review pricing of the variable annuity living and death guarantees offered to retail investors in many countries. Investors purchase these products to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. We present pricing of these products via an optimal stochastic control framework and review the existing numerical methods. We also discuss pricing under the complete/incomplete financial market models, stochastic mortality and optimal/sub-optimal policyholder behavior, and in the presence of taxes. For numerical valuation of these contracts in the case of simple risky asset process, we develop a direct integration method based on the Gauss-Hermite quadratures with a one-dimensional cubic spline for calculation of the expected contract value, and a bi-cubic spline interpolation for applying the jump conditions across the contract cashflow event times. This method is easier to implement and faster when compared to the partial differential equation methods if the transition density (or its moments of the risky asset underlying the contract is known in closed form between the event times. We present accurate numerical results for pricing of a Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefit (GMAB guarantee available on the market that can serve as a numerical benchmark for practitioners and researchers developing pricing of variable annuity guarantees to assess the accuracy of their numerical implementation.

  20. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

    2014-04-01

    Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

  1. 75 FR 28568 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 2, under Alternative Site Framework, New Orleans, Louisiana...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-21

    ... Zone 2, under Alternative Site Framework, New Orleans, Louisiana, Area Pursuant to its authority under... St. Bernard Parishes, Louisiana, adjacent to the New Orleans Customs and Border Protection port of... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Board of Commissioners of the Port of New...

  2. 76 FR 65496 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-21

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1790] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of June 18, 1934, as amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u), the Foreign-Trade Zones Board...

  3. 76 FR 38357 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 102, Under Alternative Site Framework; St. Louis, MO

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ... Zone 102, Under Alternative Site Framework; St. Louis, MO Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign.../2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the St... the City of St. Louis and St. Louis County, Missouri, within and adjacent to the St. Louis Customs and...

  4. Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

    2017-12-31

    Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Communicating Climate Change through ICT-Based Visualization: Towards an Analytical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björn-Ola Linnér

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The difficulties in communicating climate change science to the general public are often highlighted as one of the hurdles for support of enhanced climate action. The advances of interactive visualization using information and communication technology (ICT are claimed to be a game-changer in our ability to communicate complex issues. However, new analytical frameworks are warranted to analyse the role of such technologies. This paper develops a novel framework for analyzing the content, form, context and relevance of ICT-based visualization of climate change, based on insights from literature on climate change communication. Thereafter, we exemplify the analytical framework by applying it to a pilot case of ICT-based climate visualization in a GeoDome. Possibilities to use affordable advanced ICT-based visualization devices in science and policy communication are rapidly expanding. We thus see wider implications and applications of the analytical framework not only for other ICT environments but also other issue areas in sustainability communication.

  6. A fuzzy stochastic framework for managing hydro-environmental and socio-economic interactions under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2014-05-01

    An amplified interconnectedness between a hydro-environmental and socio-economic system brings about profound challenges of water management decision making. In this contribution, we present a fuzzy stochastic approach to solve a set of decision making problems, which involve hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated criteria subjected to uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed methodological framework combines objective and subjective criteria in a decision making procedure for obtaining an acceptable ranking in water resources management alternatives under different type of uncertainty (subjective/objective) and heterogeneous information (quantitative/qualitative) simultaneously. The first step of the proposed approach involves evaluating the performance of alternatives with respect to different types of criteria. The ratings of alternatives with respect to objective and subjective criteria are evaluated by simulation-based optimization and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers, respectively. Subjective and objective uncertainties related to the input information are handled through linking fuzziness and randomness together. Fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty and a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to map stochastic uncertainty. With this framework, the overall performance of each alternative is calculated using an Order Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation operator accounting for decision makers' experience and opinions. Finally, ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management alternatives. This has been done on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an acceptable ranking and mean difference in total performance for the pair of management alternatives. The proposed methodology is tested in a real-world hydrosystem, to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal aquifer system affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater

  7. Dissociable processes underlying decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task: a new integrative framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Napoli Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is a common paradigm used to study the interactions between emotions and decision making, yet little consensus exists on the cognitive process determining participants' decisions, what affects them, and how these processes interact with each other. A novel conceptual framework is proposed according to which behavior in the IGT reflects a balance between two dissociable processes; a cognitively demanding process that tracks each option's long-term payoff, and a lower-level, automatic process that is primarily sensitive to loss frequency and magnitude. Methods A behavioral experiment was carried out with a modified version of IGT. In this modified version, participants went through an additional phase of interaction, designed to measure performance without further learning, in which no feedback on individual decisions was given. A secondary distractor task was presented in either the first or the second phase of the experiment. Behavioral measures of performance tracking both payoff and frequency sensitivity in choices were collected throughout the experiment. Results Consistent with our framework, the results confirmed that: (a the two competing cognitive processes can be dissociated; (b that learning from decision outcomes requires central cognitive resources to estimate long-term payoff; and (c that the decision phase itself can be carried out during an interfering task once learning has occurred. Conclusion The experimental results support our novel description of the cognitive processes underlying performance in the Iowa Gambling Task. They also suggest that patients' impairments in this and other gambling paradigms can originate from a number of different causes, including a failure in allocating resources among cognitive strategies. This latter interpretation might be particularly useful in explaining the impairments of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions and, by extension

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  10. Learning Physics-based Models in Hydrology under the Framework of Generative Adversarial Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpatne, A.; Kumar, V.

    2017-12-01

    Generative adversarial networks (GANs), that have been highly successful in a number of applications involving large volumes of labeled and unlabeled data such as computer vision, offer huge potential for modeling the dynamics of physical processes that have been traditionally studied using simulations of physics-based models. While conventional physics-based models use labeled samples of input/output variables for model calibration (estimating the right parametric forms of relationships between variables) or data assimilation (identifying the most likely sequence of system states in dynamical systems), there is a greater opportunity to explore the full power of machine learning (ML) methods (e.g, GANs) for studying physical processes currently suffering from large knowledge gaps, e.g. ground-water flow. However, success in this endeavor requires a principled way of combining the strengths of ML methods with physics-based numerical models that are founded on a wealth of scientific knowledge. This is especially important in scientific domains like hydrology where the number of data samples is small (relative to Internet-scale applications such as image recognition where machine learning methods has found great success), and the physical relationships are complex (high-dimensional) and non-stationary. We will present a series of methods for guiding the learning of GANs using physics-based models, e.g., by using the outputs of physics-based models as input data to the generator-learner framework, and by using physics-based models as generators trained using validation data in the adversarial learning framework. These methods are being developed under the broad paradigm of theory-guided data science that we are developing to integrate scientific knowledge with data science methods for accelerating scientific discovery.

  11. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  12. a Framework of Change Detection Based on Combined Morphologica Features and Multi-Index Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Zhang, S.; Yang, D.

    2017-09-01

    Remote sensing images are particularly well suited for analysis of land cover change. In this paper, we present a new framework for detection of changing land cover using satellite imagery. Morphological features and a multi-index are used to extract typical objects from the imagery, including vegetation, water, bare land, buildings, and roads. Our method, based on connected domains, is different from traditional methods; it uses image segmentation to extract morphological features, while the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the differential water index (NDWI) are used to extract vegetation and water, and a fragmentation index is used to the correct extraction results of water. HSV transformation and threshold segmentation extract and remove the effects of shadows on extraction results. Change detection is performed on these results. One of the advantages of the proposed framework is that semantic information is extracted automatically using low-level morphological features and indexes. Another advantage is that the proposed method detects specific types of change without any training samples. A test on ZY-3 images demonstrates that our framework has a promising capability to detect change.

  13. A FRAMEWORK OF CHANGE DETECTION BASED ON COMBINED MORPHOLOGICA FEATURES AND MULTI-INDEX CLASSIFICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing images are particularly well suited for analysis of land cover change. In this paper, we present a new framework for detection of changing land cover using satellite imagery. Morphological features and a multi-index are used to extract typical objects from the imagery, including vegetation, water, bare land, buildings, and roads. Our method, based on connected domains, is different from traditional methods; it uses image segmentation to extract morphological features, while the enhanced vegetation index (EVI, the differential water index (NDWI are used to extract vegetation and water, and a fragmentation index is used to the correct extraction results of water. HSV transformation and threshold segmentation extract and remove the effects of shadows on extraction results. Change detection is performed on these results. One of the advantages of the proposed framework is that semantic information is extracted automatically using low-level morphological features and indexes. Another advantage is that the proposed method detects specific types of change without any training samples. A test on ZY-3 images demonstrates that our framework has a promising capability to detect change.

  14. A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Mazmanian

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

  15. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  16. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V; Levermann, Anders

    2014-01-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions. (letter)

  17. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  18. Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

  19. interThermalPhaseChangeFoam—A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Nabil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The volume-of-fluid (VOF approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam, which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A. By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

  20. interThermalPhaseChangeFoam-A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabil, Mahdi; Rattner, Alexander S.

    The volume-of-fluid (VOF) approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam), which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A). By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

  1. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  2. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  3. Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

  4. The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

    2017-12-01

    How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

  5. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  6. Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P A; Bhattacharya, A; Butler, C R; Chun, H K; Jacklitsch, B; Jacobs, T; Kiefer, M; Lincoln, J; Pendergrass, S; Shire, J; Watson, J; Wagner, G R

    2016-11-01

    In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.

  7. Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazaris, Antonios D; Germond, Basil

    2018-09-01

    For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  9. Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change

    OpenAIRE

    KAWAGUCHI, Ken'ichi; OHYA, Shunji

    2009-01-01

    p. 224-231 Strain change in the members of full-scale tensegrity skeletons has been monitored for eight years. The one-day data of one of the tensegrity frame on the hottest and the coldest day in the record are reported and discussed. Kawaguchi, K.; Ohya, S. (2009). Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change. Symposium of the International Association for Shell and Spatial Structures. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10...

  10. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  11. A Synthetic Fusion Rule for Salient Region Detection under the Framework of DS-Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naeem Ayoub

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Saliency detection is one of the most valuable research topics in computer vision. It focuses on the detection of the most significant objects/regions in images and reduces the computational time cost of getting the desired information from salient regions. Local saliency detection or common pattern discovery schemes were actively used by the researchers to overcome the saliency detection problems. In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency fusion method by taking into consideration the importance of the DS-Evidence (Dempster–Shafer (DS theory. Firstly, we calculate saliency maps from different algorithms based on the pixels-level, patches-level and region-level methods. Secondly, we fuse the pixels based on the foreground and background information under the framework of DS-Evidence theory (evidence theory allows one to combine evidence from different sources and arrive at a degree of belief that takes into account all the available evidence. The development inclination of image saliency detection through DS-Evidence theory gives us better results for saliency prediction. Experiments are conducted on the publicly available four different datasets (MSRA, ECSSD, DUT-OMRON and PASCAL-S. Our saliency detection method performs well and shows prominent results as compared to the state-of-the-art algorithms.

  12. A mathematical framework for modelling and evaluating natural gas pipeline networks under hydrogen injection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabkhi, F.; Azzaro-Pantel, C.; Pibouleau, L.; Domenech, S. [Laboratoire de Genie Chimique, UMR5503 CNRS/INP/UPS, 5 rue Paulin Talabot F-BP1301, 31106 Toulouse Cedex 1 (France)

    2008-11-15

    This article presents the framework of a mathematical formulation for modelling and evaluating natural gas pipeline networks under hydrogen injection. The model development is based on gas transport through pipelines and compressors which compensate for the pressure drops by implying mainly the mass and energy balances on the basic elements of the network. The model was initially implemented for natural gas transport and the principle of extension for hydrogen-natural gas mixtures is presented. The objective is the treatment of the classical fuel minimizing problem in compressor stations. The optimization procedure has been formulated by means of a nonlinear technique within the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) environment. This work deals with the adaptation of the current transmission networks of natural gas to the transport of hydrogen-natural gas mixtures. More precisely, the quantitative amount of hydrogen that can be added to natural gas can be determined. The studied pipeline network, initially proposed in [1] is revisited here for the case of hydrogen-natural gas mixtures. Typical quantitative results are presented, showing that the addition of hydrogen to natural gas decreases significantly the transmitted power: the maximum fraction of hydrogen that can be added to natural gas is around 6 mass% for this example. (author)

  13. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  14. Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

  15. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become...

  16. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  17. The Ad Hoc process to strengthen the framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramakrishna, K.; Deutz, A.M.; Jacobsen, L.A. [eds.

    1995-11-01

    The Woods Hole Research Center convened an International Conference on The Ad Hoc Process to Strengthen the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Woods Hole, MA, on October 7-9, 1995. The conference was conducted to examine the prospects for successful adoption of a protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change by 1997. In preparation for the Second session of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate, several governmental and nongovernmental representatives met in Woods Hole to discuss the process and possible outcome of the Berlin Mandate negotiations for a protocol or other legal instrument to strengthen the Convention. The conference was by invitation and all participants attended in their personal capacities.

  18. Roundtable on health and climate change : Strategic plan on health and climate change : a framework for collaborative action, final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-03-01

    Climate change will have a significant impact on human health, arising from direct effects such as increased extreme weather events, and indirect effects resulting from changes in ecological systems on which humans depend. This paper is a compilation of discussions and input from the many stakeholders and representatives that contributed to the Roundtable on Health and Climate Change held in September 2000. The goal of the Roundtable was to raise the profile and inform policy makers of the health issues associated with climate change and to engage the health sector in the National Implementation Strategy on Climate Change. The strategic framework for collaborative action in addressing the health implications of climate change were presented. The strategic plan is based on the following key principles: (1) incorporating both mitigation and adaptation in all aspects of the plan, (2) maximizing co-benefits, associated with climate change and other key health priorities, (3) building on existing capacity within governments and non-governmental organizations, (4) forming multi-disciplinary alliances, (5) emphasizing collaboration and cooperation, and (6) recognizing the shared responsibility for action on climate change. The major recommendation from the Roundtable was to urge governments to place a high priority on the implementation of measures that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, thereby improving health of Canadians. It was recommended that governments should insist that all analyses and modeling of climate change policy options include the assessment and consideration of health implications. 1 tab

  19. Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily S Hope

    Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

  20. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

    2016-10-01

    Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

  1. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  2. Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Verdecchia, Marco; Giorgi, Filippo; Colaiuda, Valentina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Lombardi, Annalina

    2014-09-15

    The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

  4. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  5. THE FACTOR OF ENERGY-INFORMATION SECURITY IN THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION-RELATED CHANGES

    OpenAIRE

    Alexey Viktorovich SUHORUKHIH

    2015-01-01

    The paper examined the grounds having involved global social and cultural changes, and emphasized the precedence taken by an energy-information component to the geopolitical dynamics of the civilization continuum. The study emphasized the relevance of new facets in social and cultural insight urged to respond to challenges of direct mental hazards emerging over the world, and requirement of energy-information security the civilization has sought for, assumed to be the framework for considerin...

  6. Comparison of feature extraction methods within a spatio-temporal land cover change detection framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kleynhans, W

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available OF FEATURE EXTRACTION METHODS WITHIN A SPATIO-TEMPORAL LAND COVER CHANGE DETECTION FRAMEWORK ??W. Kleynhans,, ??B.P. Salmon, ?J.C. Olivier, ?K.J. Wessels, ?F. van den Bergh ? Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engi- neering University of Pretoria, South... Bergh, and K. Steenkamp, ?Improving land cover class separation using an extended Kalman filter on MODIS NDVI time series data,? IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 381?385, Apr. 2010. ...

  7. Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel

    2009-07-01

    Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

  8. A conceptual connectivity framework for understanding geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöppl, Ronald; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry

    2017-04-01

    Human-induced landscape change is difficult to predict due to the complexity inherent in both geomorphic and social systems as well as due to emerging coupling relationships between them. To better understand system complexity and system response to change, connectivity has become an important research paradigm within various disciplines including geomorphology, hydrology and ecology. With the proposed conceptual connectivity framework on geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems a cautionary note is flagged regarding the need (i) to include and to systematically conceptualise the role of different types of human agency in altering connectivity relationships in geomorphic systems and (ii) to integrate notions of human-environment interactions to connectivity concepts in geomorphology to better explain causes and trajectories of landscape change. Underpinned by case study examples, the presented conceptual framework is able to explain how geomorphic response of fluvial systems to human disturbance is determined by system-specific boundary conditions (incl. system history, related legacy effects and lag times), vegetation dynamics and human-induced functional relationships (i.e. feedback mechanisms) between the different spatial dimensions of connectivity. It is further demonstrated how changes in social systems can trigger a process-response feedback loop between social and geomorphic systems that further governs the trajectory of landscape change in coupled human-geomorphic systems.

  9. Social Change: A Framework for Inclusive Leadership Development in Nursing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Catherine Y; Pino Betancourt, Debra M; Morrison, Chenille

    2016-03-01

    The social change model (SCM) promotes equity, social justice, self-knowledge, service, and collaboration. It is a relevant framework for extracurricular leadership development programs that target students who may not self-identify as leaders. Application of the SCM in a leadership development program for prelicensure nursing students from underresourced or underrepresented backgrounds is described. Students' opinions about leadership for social change were explored through a focus group and a pilot test of an instrument designed to assess the values of the SCM. Students lack the experience required to feel comfortable with change, but they come into nursing with a sense of commitment that can be nurtured toward leadership for social change and health equity through best practices derived from the SCM. These include sociocultural conversations, mentoring relationships, community service, and membership in off-campus organizations. Nurse educators can cultivate inclusive leadership for social change using the SCM as a guide. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  10. Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DAS, Bidhan C

    2009-06-01

    It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country. © 2009 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  11. Neural changes underlying early stages of L2 vocabulary acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, He; Holcomb, Phillip J; Midgley, Katherine J

    2016-11-01

    Research has shown neural changes following second language (L2) acquisition after weeks or months of instruction. But are such changes detectable even earlier than previously shown? The present study examines the electrophysiological changes underlying the earliest stages of second language vocabulary acquisition by recording event-related potentials (ERPs) within the first week of learning. Adult native English speakers with no previous Spanish experience completed less than four hours of Spanish vocabulary training, with pre- and post-training ERPs recorded to a backward translation task. Results indicate that beginning L2 learners show rapid neural changes following learning, manifested in changes to the N400 - an ERP component sensitive to lexicosemantic processing and degree of L2 proficiency. Specifically, learners in early stages of L2 acquisition show growth in N400 amplitude to L2 words following learning as well as a backward translation N400 priming effect that was absent pre-training. These results were shown within days of minimal L2 training, suggesting that the neural changes captured during adult second language acquisition are more rapid than previously shown. Such findings are consistent with models of early stages of bilingualism in adult learners of L2 ( e.g. Kroll and Stewart's RHM) and reinforce the use of ERP measures to assess L2 learning.

  12. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  13. An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shulei; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Dawen

    2018-01-01

    Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost-benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982-2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average -8.5% in 1990s and -11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large-scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

  14. Heater rod temperature change at boiling transition under flow oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Shigeru; Toba, Akio; Takigawa, Yukio; Ebata, Shigeo; Morooka, Shin-ichi; Shirakawa, Ken-etsu; Utsuno, Hideaki.

    1986-01-01

    The experiments were performed to investigate the boiling transition phenomenon under flow oscillation (OSBT) during thermal hydraulic instability. It was found, from the experimental results, that the thermal hydraulic instability did not immediately lead to the boiling transition (BT) and, even when the BT occurred due to a power increase, the change in the heater rod temperature was periodically up and down with a saw-toothed shape and no excursion occurred. To investigate the temperature change characteristics, an analysis was also performed using the transient thermal hydraulics code. The analytical results showed that the shape of the heater rod temperature change was well simulated by presuming a repeat of alternate BT and rewetting. Based on these results, further analysis has been performed with the lumped parameter model to investigate the temperature profile characteristics as well as the effects of the post-BT heat transfer coefficient and the flow oscillation period on the maximum temperature. (author)

  15. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  16. A Framework for Requirement Elicitation, Analysis, Documentation and Prioritisation under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Mladenov, V.

    2015-01-01

    This paper offers a pluralistic framework for coping with requirements in the early phases of design where there is lack of knowledge about a system, its architect and functions. The framework is used to elicit, analyze, document and prioritize the requirements. It embeds probabilistic approach and

  17. Retrofitting Non-Cognitive-Diagnostic Reading Assessment under the Generalized DINA Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huilin; Chen, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are psychometric models developed mainly to assess examinees' specific strengths and weaknesses in a set of skills or attributes within a domain. By adopting the Generalized-DINA model framework, the recently developed general modeling framework, we attempted to retrofit the PISA reading assessments, a…

  18. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  19. The fate of object memory traces under change detection and change blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Niko A

    2013-07-03

    Observers often fail to detect substantial changes in a visual scene. This so-called change blindness is often taken as evidence that visual representations are sparse and volatile. This notion rests on the assumption that the failure to detect a change implies that representations of the changing objects are lost all together. However, recent evidence suggests that under change blindness, object memory representations may be formed and stored, but not retrieved. This study investigated the fate of object memory representations when changes go unnoticed. Participants were presented with scenes consisting of real world objects, one of which changed on each trial, while recording event-related potentials (ERPs). Participants were first asked to localize where the change had occurred. In an additional recognition task, participants then discriminated old objects, either from the pre-change or the post-change scene, from entirely new objects. Neural traces of object memories were studied by comparing ERPs for old and novel objects. Participants performed poorly in the detection task and often failed to recognize objects from the scene, especially pre-change objects. However, a robust old/novel effect was observed in the ERP, even when participants were change blind and did not recognize the old object. This implicit memory trace was found both for pre-change and post-change objects. These findings suggest that object memories are stored even under change blindness. Thus, visual representations may not be as sparse and volatile as previously thought. Rather, change blindness may point to a failure to retrieve and use these representations for change detection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. An organizational framework and strategic implementation for system-level change to enhance research-based practice: QUERI Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittman Brian S

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The continuing gap between available evidence and current practice in health care reinforces the need for more effective solutions, in particular related to organizational context. Considerable advances have been made within the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VA in systematically implementing evidence into practice. These advances have been achieved through a system-level program focused on collaboration and partnerships among policy makers, clinicians, and researchers. The Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI was created to generate research-driven initiatives that directly enhance health care quality within the VA and, simultaneously, contribute to the field of implementation science. This paradigm-shifting effort provided a natural laboratory for exploring organizational change processes. This article describes the underlying change framework and implementation strategy used to operationalize QUERI. Strategic approach to organizational change QUERI used an evidence-based organizational framework focused on three contextual elements: 1 cultural norms and values, in this case related to the role of health services researchers in evidence-based quality improvement; 2 capacity, in this case among researchers and key partners to engage in implementation research; 3 and supportive infrastructures to reinforce expectations for change and to sustain new behaviors as part of the norm. As part of a QUERI Series in Implementation Science, this article describes the framework's application in an innovative integration of health services research, policy, and clinical care delivery. Conclusion QUERI's experience and success provide a case study in organizational change. It demonstrates that progress requires a strategic, systems-based effort. QUERI's evidence-based initiative involved a deliberate cultural shift, requiring ongoing commitment in multiple forms and at multiple levels. VA's commitment to QUERI came in the

  1. Teachers Pedagogical Change Framework: A Diagnostic Tool for Changing Teachers' Uses of Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarling, Isabel; Ng'ambi, Dick

    2016-01-01

    One of the challenges facing education systems in general and the South African education system in particular is how to understand ways that teachers change from nonusers of technologies to becoming transformative teachers with technology. Despite numerous initiatives, not limited to training, workshops and so forth, to bring about sustained and…

  2. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  3. Teaching Domestic Violence in the New Millennium: Intersectionality as a Framework for Social Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQueeney, Krista

    2016-10-01

    This article describes an intersectional approach to teaching about domestic violence (DV), which aims to empower students as critical thinkers and agents of change by merging theory, service learning, self-reflection, and activism. Three intersectional strategies and techniques for teaching about DV are discussed: promoting difference-consciousness, complicating gender-only power frameworks, and organizing for change. The author argues that to empower future generations to end violence, educators should put intersectionality into action through their use of scholarship, teaching methods, and pedagogical authority. Finally, the benefits and challenges of intersectional pedagogy for social justice education are considered. © The Author(s) 2016.

  4. A Conceptual Framework of Ancillary Benefit Modeling in Context of Climate Change in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joh, Seung Hun; Nam, Yun Mi [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1999-12-01

    A climate change requires a prudent and general policy since its effect is expected to be very extensive on ecosystem, agricultural production, bio diversity, human health, damage on buildings due to the temperature and sea level increase. Korea is facing to establish and implement a greenhouse gas reduction policy for UNFCCC, established to prevent a climate change. In this study, it recommended to establish a concept for measuring a incidental benefit by reducing greenhouse gas and suggested a framework for establishing a model development suitable to Korea. 43 refs., 7 figs., 33 tabs.

  5. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  6. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

  7. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  8. What the Framework Convention on Climate Change Teaches Us About Cooperation on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. Victor

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Arild Underdal has been at the center of an important community of scholars studying global environmental governance. Since the 1990s that community, along with many other scholars globally, has offered important insights into the design and management of international institutions that can lead to more effective management of environmental problems. At the same time, diplomats have made multiple attempts to create institutions to manage the dangers of climate change. This essay looks at what has been learned by both communities—scholars and practitioners—as their efforts co-evolved. It appears that despite a wealth of possible insights into making cooperation effective very few of the lessons offered by scholars had much impact during the first two decades of climate change diplomacy. Indeed, basic concepts from cooperation theory and evidence from case studies—many developed in Arild’s orbit—can explain why those two decades achieved very little real cooperation. The new Paris agreement may be changing all that and much better reflects insights from scholars about how to build effective international institutions. Success in the Paris process is far from assured and scholars can contribute a lot more with a more strategic view of when and how they have an impact.

  9. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

  10. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoo, L.P.; Olson, D.H.; Mcmenamin, S.K.; Murray, K.A.; Van Sluys, M.; Donnelly, M.A.; Stratford, D.; Terhivuo, J.; Merino-Viteri, A.; Herbert, S.M.; Bishop, P.J.; Corn, P.S.; Dovey, L.; Griffiths, R.A.; Lowe, K.; Mahony, M.; McCallum, H.; Shuker, J.D.; Simpkins, C.; Skerratt, L.F.; Williams, S.E.; Hero, J.-M.

    2011-01-01

    1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.

  11. A framework for back-up and restore under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karonis, N.T.

    1992-12-01

    EPICS is a system that allows one to design and implement a controls system. At its foundation, i.e., the level closest to the devices being controlled, are autonomous computers, each called an Input/Output Controller or IOC. In EPICS, devices controlled by an IOC are represented by software entities called process variables. All devices are monitored/controlled by reading/writing values from/to their associated process variables. Under this schema, distributing processing over a number of IOCs and representing devices with process variables, there are a variety of ways one can view or group the information in the control system. Two of the more common groupings are by IOC (location) and by devices (function). Simply stated, the authors require a system capable of restoring the state of the machine, in their case the Advanced Photon Source, to a known desired state from somewhere in the past. To that end, they propose a framework which describes a system that periodically records and preserves the values of key process variables so that later on, those values can be written to the machine in an attempt to restore it to that same state. One of the more powerful notions that must be preserved in any system that solves this problem is the independence between the specification of what is monitored and the specification of what is written. In other words, grouping process variables for monitoring must be kept independent of the number of different ways to group process variables (e.g., by IOC, by device, etc.) when they are written

  12. Determination of tributyltin in whole water matrices under the European Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Janine; Fettig, Ina; Philipp, Rosemarie; Jakubowski, Norbert; Panne, Ulrich; Fisicaro, Paola; Alasonati, Enrica

    2016-08-12

    Monitoring of water quality is important to control water pollution. Contamination of the aquatic system has a large effect on human health and the environment. Under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC and the related directive on environmental quality standards (EQS) in the field of water policy 2008/105/EC, the need for sensitive reference methods was highlighted. Since tributyltin (TBT) is one of the WFD listed priority substances a method was developed which is capable to qualify and quantify the pollutant at the required low WFD EQS of 0.2ngL(-1) in whole water bodies, i.e. in non-filtered water samples with dissolved organic carbon and suspended particulate matter. Therefore special attention was paid on the interaction of TBT with the suspended particulate matter and humic substances to obtain a complete representation of the pollution in surface waters. Different water samples were investigated varying the content of organic dissolved and suspended matter. Quantification was performed using species-specific isotope dilution (SSID) and gas chromatography with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (GC-ICP-MS). Different sample treatment strategies were evaluated and compared. The process of internal standard addition was investigated and optimized, hence the equilibrium between internal standards and matrix is of primary importance to perform accurate SSID. Samples spiked at EQS level were analyzed with a recovery between 95 and 105 %. Additionally real surface water samples were investigated and the TBT concentration for the whole water body was determined and compared with conventional routine analysis method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2009-01-01

    How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

  14. Implementing change in primary care practices using electronic medical records: a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Lynne S; Feifer, Chris; Stuart, Gail W; Ornstein, Steven M

    2008-01-16

    Implementing change in primary care is difficult, and little practical guidance is available to assist small primary care practices. Methods to structure care and develop new roles are often needed to implement an evidence-based practice that improves care. This study explored the process of change used to implement clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care practices that used a common electronic medical record (EMR). Multiple conceptual frameworks informed the design of this study designed to explain the complex phenomena of implementing change in primary care practice. Qualitative methods were used to examine the processes of change that practice members used to implement the guidelines. Purposive sampling in eight primary care practices within the Practice Partner Research Network-Translating Researching into Practice (PPRNet-TRIP II) clinical trial yielded 28 staff members and clinicians who were interviewed regarding how change in practice occurred while implementing clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and strokes. A conceptual framework for implementing clinical guidelines into primary care practice was developed through this research. Seven concepts and their relationships were modelled within this framework: leaders setting a vision with clear goals for staff to embrace; involving the team to enable the goals and vision for the practice to be achieved; enhancing communication systems to reinforce goals for patient care; developing the team to enable the staff to contribute toward practice improvement; taking small steps, encouraging practices' tests of small changes in practice; assimilating the electronic medical record to maximize clinical effectiveness, enhancing practices' use of the electronic tool they have invested in for patient care improvement; and providing feedback within a culture of improvement, leading to an iterative cycle of goal setting

  15. A consistent framework to predict mass fluxes and depletion times for DNAPL contaminations in heterogeneous aquifers under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Jonas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2013-04-01

    At many hazardous waste sites and accidental spills, dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) such as TCE, PCE, or TCA have been released into the subsurface. Once a DNAPL is released into the subsurface, it serves as persistent source of dissolved-phase contamination. In chronological order, the DNAPL migrates through the porous medium and penetrates the aquifer, it forms a complex pattern of immobile DNAPL saturation, it dissolves into the groundwater and forms a contaminant plume, and it slowly depletes and bio-degrades in the long-term. In industrial countries the number of such contaminated sites is tremendously high to the point that a ranking from most risky to least risky is advisable. Such a ranking helps to decide whether a site needs to be remediated or may be left to natural attenuation. Both the ranking and the designing of proper remediation or monitoring strategies require a good understanding of the relevant physical processes and their inherent uncertainty. To this end, we conceptualize a probabilistic simulation framework that estimates probability density functions of mass discharge, source depletion time, and critical concentration values at crucial target locations. Furthermore, it supports the inference of contaminant source architectures from arbitrary site data. As an essential novelty, the mutual dependencies of the key parameters and interacting physical processes are taken into account throughout the whole simulation. In an uncertain and heterogeneous subsurface setting, we identify three key parameter fields: the local velocities, the hydraulic permeabilities and the DNAPL phase saturations. Obviously, these parameters depend on each other during DNAPL infiltration, dissolution and depletion. In order to highlight the importance of these mutual dependencies and interactions, we present results of several model set ups where we vary the physical and stochastic dependencies of the input parameters and simulated processes. Under these

  16. Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

  17. 77 FR 43048 - Foreign-Trade Zone 32-Miami, FL; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-23

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [B-51-2012] Foreign-Trade Zone 32--Miami, FL... Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (the Board) by the Greater Miami Foreign-Trade Zone, Inc., grantee of FTZ 32, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted by...

  18. 75 FR 61696 - Foreign-Trade Zone 51-Duluth, MN; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Docket 58-2010] Foreign-Trade Zone 51--Duluth... FTZ 51, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted... or reorganizing a general-purpose zone, the application would have no impact on FTZ 51's authorized...

  19. New Equating Methods and Their Relationships with Levine Observed Score Linear Equating under the Kernel Equating Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Haiwen; Holland, Paul

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new curvilinear equating for the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design under the assumption of the classical test theory model, that we name curvilinear Levine observed score equating. In fact, by applying both the kernel equating framework and the mean preserving linear transformation of…

  20. Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

  1. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  2. Endogenous technological and demographic change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Ertsen, Maurits; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-05-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  3. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-11-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  4. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  5. Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oliveira, Guilherme de; Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rangel, Thiago Fernado

    2012-01-01

    to assess changes in climate suitability across individual species ranges, ensemble forecasting was used based on seven bioclimatic envelope models, three atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, and two greenhouse emission gas scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080. We found that most species will gain...... additional threats to the biome’s biodiversity. Here, we ask if the remnants of natural vegetation in Caatinga biome, where endemic terrestrial vertebrate species occur, are likely to retain more climatic suitability under climate change scenarios than other less pristine areas of the biome. In order......The Caatinga is a semiarid biome of the northeast of Brazil with only 1 % of its territory currently conserved. The biome’s biodiversity is highly threatened due to exposure to land conversion for agricultural and cattle ranch. Climate forecasts predict increases in aridity, which could pose...

  6. Lake eutrophication and environmental change: A viability framework for resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Jean-Denis; Rougé, Charles; Deffuant, Guillaume

    2013-04-01

    We present a simple stochastic model of lake eutrophication to demonstrate how the mathematical framework of viability theory fosters operational definitions of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and then helps understand which response one should bring to environmental changes. The model represents the phosphorus dynamics, given that high concentrations trigger a regime change from oligotrophic to eutrophic, and causes ecological but also economic losses, for instance from tourism. Phosphorus comes from agricultural inputs upstream of the lake, and we will consider a stochastic input. We consider the system made of both the lake and its upstream region, and explore how to maintain the desirable ecological and economic properties of this system. In the viability framework, we translate these desirable properties into state constraints, then examine how, given the dynamics of the model and the available policy options, the properties can be kept. The set of states for which there exists a policy to keep the properties is called the viability kernel. We extend this framework to both major perturbations and long-term environmental changes. In our model, since the phosphorus inputs and outputs from the lake depend on rainfall, we will focus on extreme rainfall events and long-term changes in the rainfall regime. They can be described as changes in the state of the system, and may displace it outside the viability kernel. Its response can then be described using the concepts of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Resilience is the capacity to recover by getting back to the viability kernel where the dynamics keep the system safe, and in this work we assume it to be the first objective of management. Computed for a given trajectory, vulnerability is a measure of the consequence of violating a property. We propose a family of functions from which cost functions and other vulnerability indicators can be derived for any trajectory. There can be

  7. Interoperable cross-domain semantic and geospatial framework for automatic change detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chiao-Ling; Hong, Jung-Hong

    2016-01-01

    With the increasingly diverse types of geospatial data established over the last few decades, semantic interoperability in integrated applications has attracted much interest in the field of Geographic Information System (GIS). This paper proposes a new strategy and framework to process cross-domain geodata at the semantic level. This framework leverages the semantic equivalence of concepts between domains through bridge ontology and facilitates the integrated use of different domain data, which has been long considered as an essential superiority of GIS, but is impeded by the lack of understanding about the semantics implicitly hidden in the data. We choose the task of change detection to demonstrate how the introduction of ontology concept can effectively make the integration possible. We analyze the common properties of geodata and change detection factors, then construct rules and summarize possible change scenario for making final decisions. The use of topographic map data to detect changes in land use shows promising success, as far as the improvement of efficiency and level of automation is concerned. We believe the ontology-oriented approach will enable a new way for data integration across different domains from the perspective of semantic interoperability, and even open a new dimensionality for the future GIS.

  8. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  9. Therapeutic Change in Group Therapy For Interpersonal Trauma: A Relational Framework for Research and Clinical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouliara, Zoë; Karatzias, Thanos; Gullone, Angela; Ferguson, Sandra; Cosgrove, Katie; Burke Draucker, Claire

    2017-04-01

    Our understanding of therapeutic change processes in group therapy for complex interpersonal trauma has been limited. The present study aimed at addressing this gap by developing a framework of therapeutic change in this field from a survivor and therapist perspective. This is a qualitative study, which utilized semistructured individual interviews. Transcripts were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) to identify recurrent themes. A final sample of n = 16 patients and n = 5 facilitators completed the interview. Main change processes identified by survivors were as follows: self versus others, trust versus threat, confrontation versus avoidance, and "patching up" versus true healing. Therapeutic processes identified by therapist facilitators included managing group dynamics, unpredictability and uncertainty, and process versus content. The proposed framework explains therapeutic change in group therapy in relational terms, that is, therapeutic dissonance, the dynamic interaction of self and experience as well as building empathic trusting relations. The importance of managing dissonance to aid personally meaningful recovery was highlighted. These findings have implications for the usefulness of relational and person-centered approaches to clinical practice in the area of interpersonal and complex trauma, especially in the early identification, prevention, and management of dropouts.

  10. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

    2009-01-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer......Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources...... of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM......), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely...

  11. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  12. The use of Depletion Methods to assess Mediterranean cephalopod stocks under the current EU Data Collection Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. KELLER

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Fuelled by the raising importance of cephalopod fisheries in Europe, there have been demands from scientists and stakeholders for their assessment and management. However, little has been done to improve the data collection in order to analyse cephalopod populations under the EU Data Collection Framework (DCF. While the DCF allows member states to design flexible national sampling programmes, it establishes the minimum data requirements (MDR each state is obliged to fulfil. In this study, it was investigated whether such MDR currently set by the DCF allow the application of depletion models (DMs to assess European cephalopod stocks. Squid and cuttlefish fisheries from the western Mediterranean were used as a case study. This exercise sheds doubt on the suitability of the MDR to properly assess and manage cephalopod stocks by means of DMs. Owing to the high plasticity of life-history traits in cephalopod populations, biological parameters should be estimated during the actual depletion period of the fished stocks, in contrast with the triennial sampling established by the DCF. In order to accurately track the depletion event, the rapid growth rates of cephalopods implies that their populations should be monitored at shorter time scales (ideally weekly or biweekly instead of quarterly as required by the DCF. These measures would not demand additional resources of the ongoing DCF, but a redistribution of sampling efforts during the depletion period. Such changes in the sampling scheme could be designed and undertaken by the member states or directly integrated as requirements.

  13. Fatigue crack paths under the influence of changes in stiffness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kullmer

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available An important topic of the Collaborative Research Centre TRR 30 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG is the crack growth behaviour in graded materials. In addition, the growth of cracks in the neighbourhood of regions and through regions with different material properties belongs under this topic. Due to the different material properties, regions with differing stiffness compared to the base material may arise. Regions with differing stiffness also arise from ribs, grooves or boreholes. Since secure findings on the propagation behaviour of fatigue cracks are essential for the evaluation of the safety of components and structures, the growth of cracks near changes in stiffness has to be considered, too. Depending on the way a crack penetrates the zone of influence of such a change in stiffness and depending on whether this region is more compliant or stiffer than the surrounding area the crack may grow towards or away from this region. Both cases result in curved crack paths that cannot be explained only by the global loading situation. To evaluate the influence of regions with differing stiffness on the path of fatigue cracks the paths and the stress intensity factors of cracks growing near and through regions with differing stiffness are numerically determined with the program system ADAPCRACK3D. Therefore, arrangements of changes in stiffness modelled as material inclusions with stiffness properties different from the base material or modelled as ribs and grooves are systematically varied to develop basic conclusions about the crack growth behaviour near and through changes in stiffness.

  14. A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Blyth, Alan M.

    2018-03-01

    Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1-3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5-7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

  15. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

    2014-03-04

    Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

  16. International migration and dietary change in Mexican women from a social practice framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojorquez, Ietza; Rosales, Cecilia; Angulo, Alexandra; de Zapien, Jill; Denman, Catalina; Madanat, Hala

    2018-06-01

    Migration from lower- and middle-income to high-income countries is associated with dietary change, and especially with the adoption of a modern, less healthy diet. In this article we analyze the dietary changes experienced by Mexican migrants, employing as a theoretical framework the concept of social practice. According to this framework, practices integrate material elements, meanings and competences that provide their conditions of possibility. Practices are shared by members of social groups, and interact with other competing or reinforcing practices. Between 2014 and 2015, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 27 women, international return migrants living in Tijuana, Mexico. The interview guide asked about history of migration and dietary change. We found three main areas of dietary change: from subsistence farming to ready meals, abundance vs. restriction, and adoption of new food items. The first one was associated with changes in food procurement and female work: when moving from rural to urban areas, participants substituted self-produced for purchased food; and as migrant women joined the labor force, consumption of ready meals increased. The second was the result of changes in income: participants of lower socioeconomic position modified the logic of food acquisition from restriction to abundance and back, depending on the available resources. The third change was relatively minor, with occasional consumption of new dishes or food items, and was associated with exposure to different cuisines and with learning how to cook them. Public health efforts to improve the migrants' diets should take into account the constitutive elements of dietary practices, instead of isolating individuals from their social contexts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

  18. Saving Lives at Birth; development of a retrospective theory of change, impact framework and prioritised metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Marek; Ruysen, Harriet; Blencowe, Hannah; Yee, Kristen; Clune, Karen; DeSilva, Mary; Leffler, Marissa; Hillman, Emily; El-Noush, Haitham; Mulligan, Jo; Murray, Jeffrey C; Silver, Karlee; Lawn, Joy E

    2018-01-29

    Grand Challenges for international health and development initiatives have received substantial funding to tackle unsolved problems; however, evidence of their effectiveness in achieving change is lacking. A theory of change may provide a useful tool to track progress towards desired outcomes. The Saving Lives at Birth partnership aims to address inequities in maternal-newborn survival through the provision of strategic investments for the development, testing and transition-to-scale of ground-breaking prevention and treatment approaches with the potential to leapfrog conventional healthcare approaches in low resource settings. We aimed to develop a theory of change and impact framework with prioritised metrics to map the initiative's contribution towards overall goals, and to measure progress towards improved outcomes around the time of birth. A theory of change and impact framework was developed retrospectively, drawing on expertise across the partnership and stakeholders. This included a document and literature review, and wide consultation, with feedback from stakeholders at all stages. Possible indicators were reviewed from global maternal-newborn health-related partner initiatives, priority indicator lists, and project indicators from current innovators. These indicators were scored across five domains to prioritise those most relevant and feasible for Saving Lives at Birth. These results informed the identification of the prioritised metrics for the initiative. The pathway to scale through Saving Lives at Birth is articulated through a theory of change and impact framework, which also highlight the roles of different actors involved in the programme. A prioritised metrics toolkit, including ten core impact indicators and five additional process indicators, complement the theory of change. The retrospective nature of this development enabled structured reflection of the program mechanics, allowing for inclusion of learning from the first four rounds of the

  19. Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato; Lepe-Lopez, Manuel A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-12-01

    More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

  20. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

  1. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  2. Gender and climate change-induced migration: proposing a framework for analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chindarkar, Namrata

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes frameworks to analyze the gender dimensions of climate change-induced migration. The experiences, needs and priorities of climate migrants will vary by gender and these differences need to be accounted for if policies are to be inclusive. Among the vulnerable groups, women are likely to be disproportionately affected due to climate change because on average women tend to be poorer, less educated, have a lower health status and have limited direct access to or ownership of natural resources. Both the process (actual movement) and the outcomes (rural–rural or rural–urban migration, out-migration mainly of men) of climate change-induced migration are also likely to be highly gendered. (letter)

  3. 4. national communication to the United Nation framework convention on the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    France, as the other involved participants, has to periodically present its actions in favor of the climatic change fight. This fourth national communication follows a plan defined by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nation Framework Convention on the Climatic Change. This report follows the third national convention published on 2001. It presents in nine chapters the actions realized to reduce and stop the greenhouse effect gases emissions and limit the impacts on the environment and public health: an analytical abstract, the conditions specific to the country, the inventory, the policies and measures, the projections and global effects of the policies and measures, the evaluation of the vulnerability and the climatic changes consequences and the adapted measures, the financial resources and the technology transfer, the research programs, the education formation and awareness of the public. (A.L.B.)

  4. Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

    2017-12-01

    Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

  5. Mineralogical composition changes of postagrogenic soils under different plant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churilin, Nikita; Chizhikova, Natalia; Varlamov, Evgheni; Churilina, Alexandra

    2017-04-01

    Plant communities play the leading role in transformation of soil. The need of studying former arable lands increases due to large number of abandoned lands in Russia. It is necessary to study mineralogical composition of soils involved into natural processes to understand the trends of their development after agricultural activities in the past. The aim of the study is to identify changes in mineralogical composition of soils under the influence of different plant communities. Soils were sampled in the south of Arkhangelsk region, Ustyansky district, near Akichkin Pochinok village. Soils are formed on clay moraine of Moscow glaciation. Soil profiles were dug on interfluve. We selected 4 plant communities on different stages of succession: upland meadow with domination of sod grasses (Phleum pratense, Agrostis tenuis), 16-year-old birch forest where dominants are herbaceous plants such as Poa sp., Chamerion angustiflium, Agrostis tenuis, 16-year-old spruce forest with no herbaceous vegetation and 70-year-old bilberry spruce forest with domination of Vaccinium myrtillus and Vaccinium vitis-idaea. To separate soil fractions mineral content. We noticed a clear differentiation of studied soils both in the content of fraction and composition of minerals. Mineralogical composition and major mineral phases correlation of profiles under 70 years and 16 years of spruce forests are different. Mineralogical content in upper part of profile under the young spruce is more differentiated than in old spruce forest: the amount of quartz and kaolinite increases in upper horizon, although in this case the overall pattern of profile formation of clay material during podzolization remains unchanged. There is more substantial desilting under the birch forest, compared with profile under the spruce of same age within top 50 cm. Under the meadow vegetation we've discovered differentiation in mineral composition. Upper horizons contain smectite phase and differ from the underlying

  6. For a better understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change: a research framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, Alexandre

    2010-05-01

    It is generally accepted that there exists a systematic link between a low level of adaptive capacity and a low level of development, which thus implies that the poor inevitably have low adaptive capacities. We argue here that this viewpoint is biased because adaptation to climate change is not solely determined by economic and technological capacities. Many other characteristics of a community can play a major role in its ability to react to and anticipate climate changes (e.g. the territorial identity or the social relationships). From our point of view, this limited view of adaptive capacity is related to a relative immaturity of the science of adaptation, a discipline that analyses the processes and determinants of adaptive capacity. This can be explained by the fact that there are currently few existing frameworks for studying adaptive capacity. This paper consists in a proposal for a research framework which is based upon four main fields of investigation: (i) the influential factors of adaptive capacity and their interactions, (ii) the relevant spatial and temporal scales of adaptive capacity, (iii) the links between adaptive capacity, vulnerability and the level of development and (iv) the theoretical links between adaptation and sustainability. These four fields of research should bring new knowledge on adaptive capacity and feed a more general reflection on the adaptation pathways for dealing with climate change. (author)

  7. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  8. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, S. Niggol; McCarl, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    Simple Summary World communities are concerned about the impacts of a hotter and drier climate on future agriculture. By examining Australian regional livestock data on sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs, the authors find that livestock production will expand under such conditions. Livestock revenue per farm is expected to increase by more than 47% by 2060 under the UKMO, the GISS, and a high degree of warming CSIRO scenario. The existence of a threshold temperature for these species is not evident. Abstract This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data. PMID:26486620

  9. A systematic framework for enterprise-wide optimization: Synthesis and design of processing network under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quaglia, Alberto; Sarup, Bent; Sin, Gürkan

    2013-01-01

    technologies andproduct portfolio) which is feasible and have optimal performances over the entire uncertainty domain.Through the integration of different methods, tools, algorithms and databases, the framework guidesthe user in dealing with the mathematical complexity of the problems, allowing efficient...... formulationand solution of large and complex enterprise-wide optimization problem. Tools for the analysis of theuncertainty, of its consequences on the decision-making process and for the identification of strategiesto mitigate its impact on network performances are integrated in the framework. A decomposition...

  10. Effects of land markets and land management on ecosystem function: A framework for modelling exurban land-change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, D.T.; Sun, S.; Hutchins, M.; Riolo, R.; Brown, D.G.; Parker, D.C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Currie, W.S.; Kiger, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the conceptual design and application of a new land-change modelling framework that represents geographical, sociological, economic, and ecological aspects of a land system. The framework provides an overarching design that can be extended into specific model implementations to

  11. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  12. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change.

  13. Catchment coevolution: A useful framework for improving predictions of hydrological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troch, Peter A.

    2017-04-01

    The notion that landscape features have co-evolved over time is well known in the Earth sciences. Hydrologists have recently called for a more rigorous connection between emerging spatial patterns of landscape features and the hydrological response of catchments, and have termed this concept catchment coevolution. In this presentation we present a general framework of catchment coevolution that could improve predictions of hydrologic change. We first present empirical evidence of the interaction and feedback of landscape evolution and changes in hydrological response. From this review it is clear that the independent drivers of catchment coevolution are climate, geology, and tectonics. We identify common currency that allows comparing the levels of activity of these independent drivers, such that, at least conceptually, we can quantify the rate of evolution or aging. Knowing the hydrologic age of a catchment by itself is not very meaningful without linking age to hydrologic response. Two avenues of investigation have been used to understand the relationship between (differences in) age and hydrological response: (i) one that is based on relating present landscape features to runoff processes that are hypothesized to be responsible for the current fingerprints in the landscape; and (ii) one that takes advantage of an experimental design known as space-for-time substitution. Both methods have yielded significant insights in the hydrologic response of landscapes with different histories. If we want to make accurate predictions of hydrologic change, we will also need to be able to predict how the catchment will further coevolve in association with changes in the activity levels of the drivers (e.g., climate). There is ample evidence in the literature that suggests that whole-system prediction of catchment coevolution is, at least in principle, plausible. With this imperative we outline a research agenda that implements the concepts of catchment coevolution for building

  14. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  15. Cellulolytic potential under environmental changes in microbial communities from grassland litter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaud eBerlemont

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In many ecosystems, global changes are likely to profoundly affect microorganisms. In Southern California, changes in precipitation and nitrogen deposition may influence the composition and functional potential of microbial communities and their resulting ability to degrade plant material. To test whether environmental changes impact the distribution of functional groups involved in leaf litter degradation, we determined how the genomic diversity of microbial communities in a semi-arid grassland ecosystem changed under reduced precipitation or increased N deposition. We monitored communities seasonally over a period of two years to place environmental change responses into the context of natural variation. Fungal and bacterial communities displayed strong seasonal patterns, Fungi being mostly detected during the dry season whereas Bacteria were common during wet periods. Most putative cellulose degraders were associated with 33 bacterial genera and constituted ~18.2% of the microbial community. Precipitation reduction reduced bacterial abundance and cellulolytic potential whereas nitrogen addition did not affect the cellulolytic potential of the microbial community. Finally, we detected a strong correlation between the frequencies of genera putative cellulose degraders and cellulase genes. Thus, microbial taxonomic composition was predictive of cellulolytic potential. This work provides a framework for how environmental changes affect microorganisms responsible for plant litter deconstruction.

  16. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the

  17. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  18. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels...... and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

  19. Research progress on expansive soil cracks under changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Bei-xiao; Zheng, Cheng-feng; Wu, Jin-kun

    2014-01-01

    Engineering problems shunned previously rise to the surface gradually with the activities of reforming the natural world in depth, the problem of expansive soil crack under the changing environment becoming a control factor of expansive soil slope stability. The problem of expansive soil crack has gradually become a research hotspot, elaborates the occurrence and development of cracks from the basic properties of expansive soil, and points out the role of controlling the crack of expansive soil strength. We summarize the existing research methods and results of expansive soil crack characteristics. Improving crack measurement and calculation method and researching the crack depth measurement, statistical analysis method, crack depth and surface feature relationship will be the future direction.

  20. Biochemical changes in rats under the influence of cesium chloride

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Melnikova

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Cesium is lately accumulated actively in the environment, but its influence on human and ani­mal organism is the least studied among heavy metals. It is shown that the action of cesium chloride in rats caused significant changes in blood chemistry, which are characterized by a decrease of total protein content, pH, an increase in the level of urea, creatinine, glucose and total hemoglobin. The results showed that potassium content in all the studied organs and tissues of poisoned rats decreases under the action of cesium chloride. Histological examination of the heart tissue in rats poisoned with cesium chloride indicates the onset of pathology of cardiovascular system. It was found out that use of the drug “Asparkam” reduces the negative effect of cesium chloride on the body of rats.

  1. Designing Energy Supply Chains with the P-graph Framework under Cost Constraints and Sustainability Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    A computer-aided methodology for designing sustainable supply chains is presented using the P-graph framework to develop supply chain structures which are analyzed using cost, the cost of producing electricity, and two sustainability metrics: ecological footprint and emergy. They...

  2. Using biological effects tools to define Good Environmental Status under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyons, B.P.; Thain, J.E.; Hylland, K.; Davis, I.; Vethaak, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    The use of biological effects tools offer enormous potential to meet the challenges outlined by the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) whereby Member States are required to develop a robust set of tools for defining 11 qualitative descriptors of Good Environmental Status

  3. Smart transactive energy framework in grid-connected multiple home microgrids under independent and coalition operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marzband, Mousa; Azarinejadian, Fatemeh; Savaghebi, Mehdi

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a smart Transactive energy (TE) framework in which home microgrids (H-MGs) can collaborate with each other in a multiple H-MG system by forming coalitions for gaining competitiveness in the market. Profit allocation due to coalition between H-MGs is an important issue...

  4. A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Kruse, Robinson; Sibbertsen, Philipp

    We consider hypothesis testing in a general linear time series regression framework when the possibly fractional order of integration of the error term is unknown. We show that the approach suggested by Vogelsang (1998a) for the case of integer integration does not apply to the case of fractional...

  5. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

    2014-01-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

  6. Small drinking water systems under spatiotemporal water quality variability: a risk-based performance benchmarking framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereskie, Ty; Haider, Husnain; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Sadiq, Rehan

    2017-08-23

    Traditional approaches for benchmarking drinking water systems are binary, based solely on the compliance and/or non-compliance of one or more water quality performance indicators against defined regulatory guidelines/standards. The consequence of water quality failure is dependent on location within a water supply system as well as time of the year (i.e., season) with varying levels of water consumption. Conventional approaches used for water quality comparison purposes fail to incorporate spatiotemporal variability and degrees of compliance and/or non-compliance. This can lead to misleading or inaccurate performance assessment data used in the performance benchmarking process. In this research, a hierarchical risk-based water quality performance benchmarking framework is proposed to evaluate small drinking water systems (SDWSs) through cross-comparison amongst similar systems. The proposed framework (R WQI framework) is designed to quantify consequence associated with seasonal and location-specific water quality issues in a given drinking water supply system to facilitate more efficient decision-making for SDWSs striving for continuous performance improvement. Fuzzy rule-based modelling is used to address imprecision associated with measuring performance based on singular water quality guidelines/standards and the uncertainties present in SDWS operations and monitoring. This proposed R WQI framework has been demonstrated using data collected from 16 SDWSs in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, Canada, and compared to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment WQI, a traditional, guidelines/standard-based approach. The study found that the R WQI framework provides an in-depth state of water quality and benchmarks SDWSs more rationally based on the frequency of occurrence and consequence of failure events.

  7. A Simulation Modeling Framework to Optimize Programs Using Financial Incentives to Motivate Health Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: To generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated "demand curves" capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated: that is, the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  9. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2011-07-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in oxygen is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of oxygen due to lateral diffusion. compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model.

  10. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce McCarl

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.

  11. Anomalous microstructural changes in III-nitrides under ion bombardment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucheyev, S.O.; Williams, J.S.; Jagadish, C.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Group-III nitrides (GaN, AlGaN, and InGaN) are currently a 'hot topic' in the physics and material research community due to very important technological applications of these materials in (opto)electronics. In the fabrication of III-nitride-based devices, ion bombardment represents a very attractive processing tool. However, ion-beam-produced lattice disorder and its undesirable consequences limit technological applications of ion implantation. Hence, studies of ion-beam-damage processes in Ill-nitrides are not only physically interesting but also technologically important. In this study, wurtzite GaN, AlGaN, and InGaN films exposed to ion bombardment under a wide range of irradiation conditions are studied by a combination of transmission electron microscopy (TEM), environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), cathodoluminescence (CL), and Rutherford backscattering/channeling (RBS/C) spectrometry. Results show that, unlike the situation for mature semiconductors such as Si and GaAs, Ill-nitrides exhibit a range of intriguing behavior involving extreme microstructural changes under ion bombardment. In this presentation, the following aspects are discussed: (i) formation of lattice defects during ion bombardment, (ii) ion-beam-induced phase transformations, (iii) ion-beam-produced stoichiometric imbalance and associated material decomposition, and (iv) an application of charging phenomena during ESEM imaging for studies of electrical isolation in GaN by MeV light ion irradiation. Emphasis is given to the (powerful) application of electron microscopy techniques for the understanding of physical processes occurring in Ill-nitrides under ion bombardment. Copyright (2002) Australian Society for Electron Microscopy Inc

  12. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  13. Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele-Lee Moore

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

  14. Changes in soil nematode communities under the impact of fertilizers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruzdeva, L. I.; Matveeva, E. M.; Kovalenko, T. E.

    2007-06-01

    Changes taking place in the communities of soil nematodes of an artificially sown meadow under the impact of annually applied mineral fertilizers have been studied in a field experiment for nine years. It is shown that changes in the species composition, trophic structure, and numbers of nematodes from different genera depend on the fertilizer applied and on the competitiveness of the plant species grown. The spectra of nematode genera sensitive to the complete mineral fertilizer (NPK) and to the particular nutrients have been identified with the use of a number of parameters, including the maturity index of nematode communities, the biotope preferences of the particular nematode genera, and the general pattern of nematode habitats. The results obtained in this study can be used to assess the effect of mineral fertilizers on the soil fauna and to suggest optimum application rates of mineral fertilizers ensuring the sustainable development of meadow herbs. The use of the data on the trophic structure of nematode communities for predicting the ways of organic matter decomposition in the soil is discussed.

  15. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2017-09-01

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  16. Designing container shipping network under changing demand and freight rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chen

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimization of container shipping network and its operations under changing cargo demand and freight rates. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem (MINP with an objective of maximizing the average unit ship-slot profit at three stages using analytical methodology. The issues such as empty container repositioning, ship-slot allocating, ship sizing, and container configuration are simultaneously considered based on a series of the matrices of demand for a year. To solve the model, a bi-level genetic algorithm based method is proposed. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithms. The obtained results show that the suggested model can provide a more realistic solution to the issues on the basis of changing demand and freight rates and arrange a more effective approach to the optimization of container shipping network structures and operations than does the model based on the average demand.

  17. Changing pattern in the basal ganglia: motor switching under reduced dopaminergic drive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Vincenzo G.; Rigoli, Francesco; Stenner, Max-Philipp; Zaehle, Tino; Hirth, Frank; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2016-01-01

    Action selection in the basal ganglia is often described within the framework of a standard model, associating low dopaminergic drive with motor suppression. Whilst powerful, this model does not explain several clinical and experimental data, including varying therapeutic efficacy across movement disorders. We tested the predictions of this model in patients with Parkinson’s disease, on and off subthalamic deep brain stimulation (DBS), focussing on adaptive sensory-motor responses to a changing environment and maintenance of an action until it is no longer suitable. Surprisingly, we observed prolonged perseverance under on-stimulation, and high inter-individual variability in terms of the motor selections performed when comparing the two conditions. To account for these data, we revised the standard model exploring its space of parameters and associated motor functions and found that, depending on effective connectivity between external and internal parts of the globus pallidus and saliency of the sensory input, a low dopaminergic drive can result in increased, dysfunctional, motor switching, besides motor suppression. This new framework provides insight into the biophysical mechanisms underlying DBS, allowing a description in terms of alteration of the signal-to-baseline ratio in the indirect pathway, which better account of known electrophysiological data in comparison with the standard model. PMID:27004463

  18. Capacity planning of link restorable optical networks under dynamic change of traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

    2005-11-01

    Future backbone networks shall require full-survivability and support dynamic changes of traffic demands. The Generalized Survivable Networks (GSN) was proposed to meet these challenges. GSN is fully-survivable under dynamic traffic demand changes, so it offers a practical and guaranteed characterization framework for ASTN / ASON survivable network planning and bandwidth-on-demand resource allocation 4. The basic idea of GSN is to incorporate the non-blocking network concept into the survivable network models. In GSN, each network node must specify its I/O capacity bound which is taken as constraints for any allowable traffic demand matrix. In this paper, we consider the following generic GSN network design problem: Given the I/O bounds of each network node, find a routing scheme (and the corresponding rerouting scheme under failure) and the link capacity assignment (both working and spare) which minimize the cost, such that any traffic matrix consistent with the given I/O bounds can be feasibly routed and it is single-fault tolerant under the link restoration scheme. We first show how the initial, infeasible formal mixed integer programming formulation can be transformed into a more feasible problem using the duality transformation of the linear program. Then we show how the problem can be simplified using the Lagrangian Relaxation approach. Previous work has outlined a two-phase approach for solving this problem where the first phase optimizes the working capacity assignment and the second phase optimizes the spare capacity assignment. In this paper, we present a jointly optimized framework for dimensioning the survivable optical network with the GSN model. Experiment results show that the jointly optimized GSN can bring about on average of 3.8% cost savings when compared with the separate, two-phase approach. Finally, we perform a cost comparison and show that GSN can be deployed with a reasonable cost.

  19. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  20. People, plants and health: a conceptual framework for assessing changes in medicinal plant consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith-Hall Carsten

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A large number of people in both developing and developed countries rely on medicinal plant products to maintain their health or treat illnesses. Available evidence suggests that medicinal plant consumption will remain stable or increase in the short to medium term. Knowledge on what factors determine medicinal plant consumption is, however, scattered across many disciplines, impeding, for example, systematic consideration of plant-based traditional medicine in national health care systems. The aim of the paper is to develop a conceptual framework for understanding medicinal plant consumption dynamics. Consumption is employed in the economic sense: use of medicinal plants by consumers or in the production of other goods. Methods PubMed and Web of Knowledge (formerly Web of Science were searched using a set of medicinal plant key terms (folk/peasant/rural/traditional/ethno/indigenous/CAM/herbal/botanical/phytotherapy; each search terms was combined with terms related to medicinal plant consumption dynamics (medicinal plants/health care/preference/trade/treatment seeking behavior/domestication/sustainability/conservation/urban/migration/climate change/policy/production systems. To eliminate studies not directly focused on medicinal plant consumption, searches were limited by a number of terms (chemistry/clinical/in vitro/antibacterial/dose/molecular/trial/efficacy/antimicrobial/alkaloid/bioactive/inhibit/antibody/purification/antioxidant/DNA/rat/aqueous. A total of 1940 references were identified; manual screening for relevance reduced this to 645 relevant documents. As the conceptual framework emerged inductively, additional targeted literature searches were undertaken on specific factors and link, bringing the final number of references to 737. Results The paper first defines the four main groups of medicinal plant users (1. Hunter-gatherers, 2. Farmers and pastoralists, 3. Urban and peri-urban people, 4. Entrepreneurs and

  1. People, plants and health: a conceptual framework for assessing changes in medicinal plant consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Hall, Carsten; Larsen, Helle Overgaard; Pouliot, Mariève

    2012-11-13

    A large number of people in both developing and developed countries rely on medicinal plant products to maintain their health or treat illnesses. Available evidence suggests that medicinal plant consumption will remain stable or increase in the short to medium term. Knowledge on what factors determine medicinal plant consumption is, however, scattered across many disciplines, impeding, for example, systematic consideration of plant-based traditional medicine in national health care systems. The aim of the paper is to develop a conceptual framework for understanding medicinal plant consumption dynamics. Consumption is employed in the economic sense: use of medicinal plants by consumers or in the production of other goods. PubMed and Web of Knowledge (formerly Web of Science) were searched using a set of medicinal plant key terms (folk/peasant/rural/traditional/ethno/indigenous/CAM/herbal/botanical/phytotherapy); each search terms was combined with terms related to medicinal plant consumption dynamics (medicinal plants/health care/preference/trade/treatment seeking behavior/domestication/sustainability/conservation/urban/migration/climate change/policy/production systems). To eliminate studies not directly focused on medicinal plant consumption, searches were limited by a number of terms (chemistry/clinical/in vitro/antibacterial/dose/molecular/trial/efficacy/antimicrobial/alkaloid/bioactive/inhibit/antibody/purification/antioxidant/DNA/rat/aqueous). A total of 1940 references were identified; manual screening for relevance reduced this to 645 relevant documents. As the conceptual framework emerged inductively, additional targeted literature searches were undertaken on specific factors and link, bringing the final number of references to 737. The paper first defines the four main groups of medicinal plant users (1. Hunter-gatherers, 2. Farmers and pastoralists, 3. Urban and peri-urban people, 4. Entrepreneurs) and the three main types of benefits (consumer, producer

  2. Creating Innovative Frameworks to Spur Cultural Change at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Aamod; Lozano, Joel; Carte, Olivia; Robillos, Troy

    2018-01-01

    furniture, and new capabilities that would bring people in. Decisions and desires underwent a rapid reiterative process in order to stay within budget and short deadlines, while holding firm to what was seen as fundamental elements of an innovation space. The framework for cultural change being established, the more difficult task began: incubating the desired culture. Intentional workday use of the innovation space was encouraged, and organized events coordinated in order to truly foster culture change. Such incubation supports the organic spread of culture change to all areas of AFRC. This framework was complemented and expanded by the implementation of the bike share program. Steps for implementation included bike selection based on lessons learned, creating bike stations and signage, implementing bike share rules, and building a volunteer maintenance infrastructure. A novel user-reporting feedback system at each bike station is a low-impact method of capturing usage metrics. Due to the nature of the work conducted at AFRC, the bike share program and feedback system were negotiated and vetted through various organizations including legal, safety, and operations. The innovation space and the bike share program together are an effective initial framework for innovation and collaboration. Culture change takes time, but the innovation space and the bike share program are already showing signs of making a positive impact on the AFRC workforce.

  3. Assessing the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in China by a novel framework for characterizing vegetation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Bingwen; Chen, Gong; Tang, Zhenghong; Lu, Difei; Wang, Zhuangzhuang; Chen, Chongchen

    2017-11-01

    The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) in China has been intensely invested for approximately 40 years. However, the efficacy of the TNSFP has been debatable due to the spatiotemporal complexity of vegetation changes. A novel framework was proposed for characterizing vegetation changes in the TNSFP region through Combining Trend and Temporal Similarity trajectory (COTTS). This framework could automatically and continuously address the fundamental questions on where, what, how and when vegetation changes have occurred. Vegetation trend was measured by a non-parametric method. The temporal similarity trajectory was tracked by the Jeffries-Matusita (JM) distance of the inter-annual vegetation indices temporal profiles and modeled using the logistic function. The COTTS approach was applied to examine the afforestation efforts of the TNSFP using 500 m 8-day composites MODIS datasets from 2001 to 2015. Accuracy assessment from the 1109 reference sites reveals that the COTTS is capable of automatically determining vegetation dynamic patterns, with an overall accuracy of 90.08% and a kappa coefficient of 0.8688. The efficacy of the TNSFP was evaluated through comprehensive considerations of vegetation, soil and wetness. Around 45.78% areas obtained increasing vegetation trend, 2.96% areas achieved bare soil decline and 4.50% areas exhibited increasing surface wetness. There were 4.49% areas under vegetation degradation & desertification. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of efficacy of the TNSFP was revealed: great vegetation gain through the abrupt dynamic pattern in the semi-humid and humid regions, bare soil decline & potential efficacy in the semi-arid region and remarkable efficacy in functional region of Eastern Ordos.

  4. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  5. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  6. Drinking water biofilm cohesiveness changes under chlorination or hydrodynamic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathieu, L; Bertrand, I; Abe, Y; Angel, E; Block, J C; Skali-Lami, S; Francius, G

    2014-05-15

    Attempts at removal of drinking water biofilms rely on various preventive and curative strategies such as nutrient reduction in drinking water, disinfection or water flushing, which have demonstrated limited efficiency. The main reason for these failures is the cohesiveness of the biofilm driven by the physico-chemical properties of its exopolymeric matrix (EPS). Effective cleaning procedures should break up the matrix and/or change the elastic properties of bacterial biofilms. The aim of this study was to evaluate the change in the cohesive strength of two-month-old drinking water biofilms under increasing hydrodynamic shear stress τw (from ∼0.2 to ∼10 Pa) and shock chlorination (applied concentration at T0: 10 mg Cl2/L; 60 min contact time). Biofilm erosion (cell loss per unit surface area) and cohesiveness (changes in the detachment shear stress and cluster volumes measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM)) were studied. When rapidly increasing the hydrodynamic constraint, biofilm removal was found to be dependent on a dual process of erosion and coalescence of the biofilm clusters. Indeed, 56% of the biofilm cells were removed with, concomitantly, a decrease in the number of the 50-300 μm(3) clusters and an increase in the number of the smaller (i.e., 600 μm(3)) ones. Moreover, AFM evidenced the strengthening of the biofilm structure along with the doubling of the number of contact points, NC, per cluster volume unit following the hydrodynamic disturbance. This suggests that the compactness of the biofilm exopolymers increases with hydrodynamic stress. Shock chlorination removed cells (-75%) from the biofilm while reducing the volume of biofilm clusters. Oxidation stress resulted in a decrease in the cohesive strength profile of the remaining drinking water biofilms linked to a reduction in the number of contact points within the biofilm network structure in particular for the largest biofilm cluster volumes (>200 μm(3)). Changes in the cohesive

  7. Maize growth and yield in Peshawar under changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, A.; Akmal, M.; Asim, M.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is consequence of accumulating greenhouse gases (Carbon) at lower atmosphere which might affects crops growth and yield. Maize is an important summer cereals, grown on considerable area in Pakistan every year. We, therefore, study the delay sowing response with changing climate on maize. Field experiment was conducted at Agronomy Research Farm, Agricultural University Peshawar, Pakistan in a randomized complete block design. Sowing was done from June 8 to July 24, 2010 with ten days intervals. Mazie (cv. Azam) was planted in rows at 0.75 m distance in NS orientations. Crop was raised under the uniform recommended cultural practices. Data regarding days to emergence, tasseling and maturity showed a consecutive decrease when so wing was delayed form June 08 onwards. However, the crop life cycle (i.e. vegetative and reproductive durations) initially remained uniform but expanded for late sowing dates (July). Delay sowing showed an increase in the leaf area index with an abrupt decline for the late sown crop. Nonetheless, plant stand at harvest remained static during the growth for all sowing dates. A stable to moderate reduction was noticed in ear length (cm) when sowings was delayed from Jun 08 onwards. Grain rows cob/-1 did not influence by the delay sowing in the season. Moreover, delay sowing did not show any significant (P<0.05) change for the grain number. However, thousand grains weight was initially remained stable but declined (P<0.05) by delay in sowing. Biological yield, dry matter and grains yield (g m/sup -2/) revealed almost a similar decreasing trend when sowing was delayed. Dry matter to grain yield relationship was linear (r/sup 2/ = 0.95) and revealed a mean loss of 1.65 g m/sup 2/ when sowing delayed from June 08 to July 24 in the season. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), the growth function, was also declined by the delay in sowing. We inferred that losses in leaf area indices, ear length and grain weights were basis of the

  8. Stormwater management: adaptation and planning under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mailhot, A.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a future climate. Such a change will have an impact on the level of service provided by stormwater infrastructures since the current capacity is based on statistical analyses of past events, assuming that past conditions are representative of future climate conditions. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events will result in increasing runoff volumes and peak discharges that will more frequently exceed the capacity of current systems. For that reason, it is important to look for adaptation measures and to review design criteria in order to maintain an acceptable level of service in the long term. One important challenge related to stormwater management and climate change (CC) is related to the time scale of both the expected lifespan of some system components (that can last up to 100 years) and the horizon of the actual CC projection (50 to 100 years). Pipes currently replaced or installed may consequently experience very different climatic conditions during their lifetime and a general degradation of the level of service may be expected according to the actual CC projections. Among others, this means that the design criteria currently used must be reviewed. This paper intends to review and describe the main issues related to adaptation and planning of stormwater management infrastructures under climate change. More precisely, the following topics will be presented and discussed: 1) what are the available projections for intense rainfall events and what are the main uncertainties related to these projections? (how reliable are they?); 2) what will be the impacts of CC on stormwater management according to available projections? 3) how do we revise design criteria in a changing climate and define the level of service in a context where the return period concept is no longer valid? 4) what kind of adaptation measures can be put forward

  9. Multiscale mapping of species diversity under changed land use using imaging spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Kagan, Tarin; Caras, Tamir; Herrmann, Ittai; Shachak, Moshe; Karnieli, Arnon

    2017-07-01

    Land use changes are one of the most important factors causing environmental transformations and species diversity alterations. The aim of the current study was to develop a geoinformatics-based framework to quantify alpha and beta diversity indices in two sites in Israel with different land uses, i.e., an agricultural system of fruit orchards, an afforestation system of planted groves, and an unmanaged system of groves. The framework comprises four scaling steps: (1) classification of a tree species distribution (SD) map using imaging spectroscopy (IS) at a pixel size of 1 m; (2) estimation of local species richness by calculating the alpha diversity index for 30-m grid cells; (3) calculation of beta diversity for different land use categories and sub-categories at different sizes; and (4) calculation of the beta diversity difference between the two sites. The SD was classified based on a hyperspectral image with 448 bands within the 380-2500 nm spectral range and a spatial resolution of 1 m. Twenty-three tree species were classified with high overall accuracy values of 82.57% and 86.93% for the two sites. Significantly high values of the alpha index characterize the unmanaged land use, and the lowest values were calculated for the agricultural land use. In addition, high values of alpha indices were found at the borders between the polygons related to the "edge-effect" phenomenon, whereas low alpha indices were found in areas with high invasion species rates. The beta index value, calculated for 58 polygons, was significantly lower in the agricultural land use. The suggested framework of this study succeeded in quantifying land use effects on tree species distribution, evenness, and richness. IS and spatial statistics techniques offer an opportunity to study woody plant species variation with a multiscale approach that is useful for managing land use, especially under increasing environmental changes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Advancing knowledge on practice change: linking facilitation to the senses framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Julie; Meyer, Julienne; Holman, Cheryl

    2013-06-01

    To explore the facilitating factors that enabled staff on a rehabilitation ward for older people engage in change activities. The importance of facilitation in practice change is widely acknowledged; however, little nursing research has taken place in relation to its nature. Following identification in the early phases of an action research study that learned helplessness states and the use of socially structured defence techniques were preventing staff on a rehabilitation ward for older people from engaging in practice development, some change was achieved. What facilitated this to take place needed to be explored. An action research approach was used. Data gained from 13 in-depth interviews with staff and managers together with three years of researcher field notes were analysed using thematic analysis. The continuous presence and neutrality of the researcher who worked together with staff on their issues of concern using a flexible ward-based approach, combined with giving staff the opportunity to explore what it was like for them working in this area, were considered key in helping staff to engage with change. Analysis of findings suggests that the senses framework presents a theoretical approach to facilitation that can help staff move out of learned helplessness states and reduce the need for the use of socially structured defence techniques. This study identifies a facilitation approach that enabled staff to engage with practice change. Although carried out in the UK, its findings have wider relevance through the application of a theoretical perspective for practice change facilitation that has not before been considered in this literature, and which is likely to be of interest to those involved in practice change internationally. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Effective social justice advocacy: a theory-of-change framework for assessing progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klugman, Barbara

    2011-11-01

    This article offers a theory-of-change framework for social justice advocacy. It describes broad outcome categories against which activists, donors and evaluators can assess progress (or lack thereof) in an ongoing manner: changes in organisational capacity, base of support, alliances, data and analysis from a social justice perspective, problem definition and potential policy options, visibility, public norms, and population level impacts. Using these for evaluation enables activists and donors to learn from and rethink their strategies as the political context and/or actors change over time. The paper presents a case study comparing factors that facilitated reproductive rights policy wins during the transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa and factors that undermined their implementation in the post-apartheid period. It argues that after legal and policy victories had been won, failure to maintain strong organizations and continually rethink strategies contributed to the loss of government focus on and resources for implementation of new policies. By implication, evaluating effectiveness only by an actual policy change does not allow for ongoing learning to ensure appropriate strategies. It also fails to recognise that a policy win can be overturned and needs vigilant monitoring and advocacy for implementation. This means that funding and organising advocacy should seldom be undertaken as a short-term proposition. It also suggests that the building and maintenance of organisational and leadership capacity is as important as any other of the outcome categories in enabling success. Copyright © 2011 Foundation Review. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

  13. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-10-01

    We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  14. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

  15. Review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasle, Peter; Jørgensen, Claus

    2003-01-01

    A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation.......A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation....

  16. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  17. Tungsten and carbon surface change under high dose plasma exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martynenko, Y.V.; Khripunov, B.I.; Petrov, V.B.

    2009-01-01

    Study of surface composition dynamics has been made on the LENTA linear plasma simulator. Experiments have been made on tungsten and carbon materials subjected to steady-state plasma exposure. The achieved ion doses on the surface were 10 21 ion cm -2 . WL 10 tungsten containing 1% of La2O3 oxide and titanium-doped graphite RG-T were studied. The following experimental conditions were varied in these experiments: energy of ions, surface temperature, working gas. Irradiations of tungsten WL 10 were executed in deuterium plasma at low ion energies (about 20 eV) and at 200 eV for temperatures below 340 K. Graphite RG-T was exposed at 1300 K. Elevated surface temperature (about 1050K) was also characteristic of experiments on tungsten sample under nitrogen plasma impact (simulated inter-ELMs condition). Surface microstructure modification has been observed and surface composition changes were found on the materials showing influence of high dose plasma irradiations on element redistribution in the near surface layers. (author)

  18. Programmes of measures under the water framework directive – a comparative case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baaner, Lasse

    2011-01-01

    The water framework directive requires programmes of measures composed by the Member States, in order to achieve its environmental objectives. This article examines three programmes of measures for river basins in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, with a focus on the differences in how the programmes...... direct the authorities’ activities with regard to water management. It concludes that there are major differences in the precision of the measures, the range of legal instruments used, and in the focus on active and direct management of the aquatic environment. The Danish programme seems to facilitate...

  19. Physical changes in MX-80 bentonite saturated under thermal gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villar, Maria Victoria; Gomez-Espina, Roberto; Gutierrez-Nebot, Luis; Campos, Rocio; Barrios, Iciar

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. This study was developed in the framework of the Temperature Buffer Test (TBT project), which was a full-scale test for HLW disposal that aimed at improving the understanding of the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behaviour of buffers with a temperature around and above 100 deg. C during the water saturation transient. The French organisation ANDRA run this test at the Aespoe HRL in cooperation with SKB (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB 2005). To simulate the conditions of the field test in the laboratory, 20-cm high columns of MX80 bentonite compacted at dry density 1.70 g/cm 3 with an initial water content of 16 percent were submitted in thermo-hydraulic cells to heating and hydration by opposite ends for different periods of time (TH test). The temperature at the bottom of the columns was set at 140 deg. C and on top at 30 C, and deionised water was injected on top at a pressure of 0.01 MPa. The tests were running for 337, 496 and 1510 days. Upon dismantling water content, dry density, specific surface area, porosity and basal spacings, among others, were determined in different positions along the bentonite columns. The strong gradients developed are remarkable. In the shorter tests the water content decreased below the initial value in the 7 cm closest to the heater, whereas in the longer test the decrease below the initial value took place only in the 5 cm closest to the heater. In the remaining part of the columns the water content increased with respect to the initial value, particularly so in the longest test. The dry density along the bentonite changed accordingly, decreasing in the hydrated areas below the initial value and increasing near the heater. The decrease in dry density is due to the swelling of the bentonite upon saturation, while the dry density increase results from the combination of two processes: the compression of the dry areas exerted by the hydrated bentonite, and the shrinkage due to the

  20. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  1. Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

    2016-10-01

    Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

  2. National Culture and Business Model Change - A Framework for Successful Expansions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenskov, Lea Houmark; Lueg, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to analyse how a company’s business model needs to be adjusted if it is expanded into another cultural context. For this, we use the example of changes in the business model of a Danish ITcompany opening a new office in the U.S. Using a single case study......, we integrate the concepts of business models (Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2005) and national culture (Hofstede, 1980). Our findings explain why and how adjustments in the business model are necessary regarding the company’s communication, team composition, and customer involvement in projects....... As to implications, we construct a matrix combining business models and national culture that other multinational companies can use to achieve better understanding of their business model in different national contexts....

  3. Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-04-01

    This report accompanies the Commission's White Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change. Its objective is to raise the profile of adaptation and to build a coherent approach at institutional level across the EU. The proposed EU Framework would complement and re-enforce Member States actions, particularly through existing funding channels, the provision of accurate climate information and appropriate guidance, ensuring that adaptation is integrated in important EU policy sectors and guaranteeing solidarity between countries/regions. The White Paper adopts a phased approach: Phase 1 (2009-2012) will lay the ground work for the preparation of a more comprehensive adaptation strategy for the EU to be implemented during phase 2 commencing in 2012. This report is first and foremost a taking-stock exercise, reviewing the literature and gathering the views of services and stakeholders, on the basis of the 2007 Green Paper. It is also meant to serve as a reference framework to develop an EU adaptation policy in future. It is a cross-cutting exercise and it is complemented by sectoral papers on water, coasts and marine issues, agriculture and health. Chapter 1 explains briefly the process for the elaboration of both documents since the publication of the Green Paper on Adaptation in 2007 and the broad internal and external consultation. Chapter 2 defines key concepts such as impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. It identifies the uncertainties and the knowledge gaps to be filled to establish priorities and monitor further action. It provides an overview of the vulnerability of EU sectors, regions or groups, to Climate Change impacts. Taking into account how national, regional and sectoral adaptation strategies already address some of these challenges, it evaluates the scope for EU action, focusing on mainstreaming adaptation into EU policies and on the necessary co-ordination of the different policy levels. Chapter 3 describes the objectives of the IA and explains how

  4. Coding conventions and principles for a National Land-Change Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, David I.

    2017-07-14

    This report establishes specific rules for writing computer source code for use with the National Land-Change Modeling Framework (NLCMF). These specific rules consist of conventions and principles for writing code primarily in the C and C++ programming languages. Collectively, these coding conventions and coding principles create an NLCMF programming style. In addition to detailed naming conventions, this report provides general coding conventions and principles intended to facilitate the development of high-performance software implemented with code that is extensible, flexible, and interoperable. Conventions for developing modular code are explained in general terms and also enabled and demonstrated through the appended templates for C++ base source-code and header files. The NLCMF limited-extern approach to module structure, code inclusion, and cross-module access to data is both explained in the text and then illustrated through the module templates. Advice on the use of global variables is provided.

  5. Smart city planning under the climate change condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

    2017-08-01

    With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

  6. Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model based framework for SHM in structures with time-dependent dynamics under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avendaño-Valencia, Luis David; Fassois, Spilios D.

    2017-12-01

    The problem of vibration-based damage diagnosis in structures characterized by time-dependent dynamics under significant environmental and/or operational uncertainty is considered. A stochastic framework consisting of a Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model of the uncertain time-dependent dynamics under each structural health state, proper estimation methods, and Bayesian or minimum distance type decision making, is postulated. The Random Coefficient (RC) time-dependent stochastic model with coefficients following a multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) allows for significant flexibility in uncertainty representation. Certain of the model parameters are estimated via a simple procedure which is founded on the related Multiple Model (MM) concept, while the GMM weights are explicitly estimated for optimizing damage diagnostic performance. The postulated framework is demonstrated via damage detection in a simple simulated model of a quarter-car active suspension with time-dependent dynamics and considerable uncertainty on the payload. Comparisons with a simpler Gaussian RC model based method are also presented, with the postulated framework shown to be capable of offering considerable improvement in diagnostic performance.

  7. A framework for modelling the behaviour of a process control operator under stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kan, C-C.F.; Roberts, P.D.; Smith, I.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper proposes the basis for a framework for modelling effects of stress on the behaviour of a process control plant operator. The qualitative effects of stress on the cognitive processing ability of the operator are discussed. Stress is thought to mainly decrease the reasoning ability of the operator. The operator will experience increased rigidity in problem solving and the narrowing of his attention and perceptual field. At the same time, the operator will be increasingly reluctant in admitting that wrong decisions have been committed. Furthermore, he will revert to skill-based behaviours. The direct consequence of stress on the decision making mechanism of the operator is the selection of inappropriate choice of action. A formal representation of decision errors is proposed and various techniques are suggested for representing various mechanisms for decision error making. The degree of experience possessed by the operator is also an important factor to the operator's tolerance of stress. The framework also allows the experience of the operator to be integrated into the model. Such an operator model can be linked to a plant simulator and the complete behaviour of the plant then be simulated

  8. A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2015-12-06

    Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

  9. A JOINT FRAMEWORK FOR 4D SEGMENTATION AND ESTIMATION OF SMOOTH TEMPORAL APPEARANCE CHANGES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yang; Prastawa, Marcel; Styner, Martin; Piven, Joseph; Gerig, Guido

    2014-04-01

    Medical imaging studies increasingly use longitudinal images of individual subjects in order to follow-up changes due to development, degeneration, disease progression or efficacy of therapeutic intervention. Repeated image data of individuals are highly correlated, and the strong causality of information over time lead to the development of procedures for joint segmentation of the series of scans, called 4D segmentation. A main aim was improved consistency of quantitative analysis, most often solved via patient-specific atlases. Challenging open problems are contrast changes and occurance of subclasses within tissue as observed in multimodal MRI of infant development, neurodegeneration and disease. This paper proposes a new 4D segmentation framework that enforces continuous dynamic changes of tissue contrast patterns over time as observed in such data. Moreover, our model includes the capability to segment different contrast patterns within a specific tissue class, for example as seen in myelinated and unmyelinated white matter regions in early brain development. Proof of concept is shown with validation on synthetic image data and with 4D segmentation of longitudinal, multimodal pediatric MRI taken at 6, 12 and 24 months of age, but the methodology is generic w.r.t. different application domains using serial imaging.

  10. Evaluating the transitional mosaic: frameworks of change from Neanderthals to Homo sapiens in eastern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, William; White, Dustin; Lewis, Mark; Stringer, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Defining varying spatial and temporal analytical scales is essential before evaluating the responses of late Neanderthals and early Homo sapiens to Abrupt Environmental Transitions (AETs) and environmental disasters for the period 130-25 ka. Recent advances in addressing the population histories and interactions (using both genetic and archaeological evidence) of Neanderthals and H. sapiens have encouraged consideration of more subtle dynamics of archaeological change. Descriptions of change based on methodologies pioneered some 160 years ago are no longer adequate to explain the patterning we now see in the record. New chronological results, using multiple dating methods, allow us to begin to unpick the spatial and temporal scales of change. Isochronic markers (such as specific volcanic eruptions) can be used to create temporal frameworks (lattices), and results from other dating techniques compared against them. A combination of chronological lattices and direct dating of diagnostic artefacts and human fossils permits us, for the first time, to have greater confidence in connecting human (recent hominin) species and their behavioural responses to environmental conditions, and in quantifying scales of change over time and space (time-transgression). The timing of innovations, particularly those in bone, antler and ivory, can be directly quantified and tested, and used to re-evaluate longstanding models of cultural change. This paper also uses these new chronologies to explore the ecologies of late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens: their population densities, mobilities, resources exploited and possible interactions. Environmental productivity estimates are used to generate new questions of potential population densities and mobilities, and thus the sensitivity of these groups to environmental perturbations. Scales and intensities of effect on environments from natural disasters and AETs (notably Heinrich Events and the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption) are defined

  11. Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.

    2003-01-01

    Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

  12. Capturing spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, U.; Fan, Z.; Jastrow, J. D.; Matamala, R.; Vitharana, U.

    2015-12-01

    The spatial heterogeneity of the land surface affects water, energy, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Designing observation networks that capture land surface spatial heterogeneity is a critical scientific challenge. Here, we present a geospatial approach to capture the existing spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across Alaska, USA. We used the standard deviation of 556 georeferenced SOC profiles previously compiled in Mishra and Riley (2015, Biogeosciences, 12:3993-4004) to calculate the number of observations that would be needed to reliably estimate Alaskan SOC stocks. This analysis indicated that 906 randomly distributed observation sites would be needed to quantify the mean value of SOC stocks across Alaska at a confidence interval of ± 5 kg m-2. We then used soil-forming factors (climate, topography, land cover types, surficial geology) to identify the locations of appropriately distributed observation sites by using the conditioned Latin hypercube sampling approach. Spatial correlation and variogram analyses demonstrated that the spatial structures of soil-forming factors were adequately represented by these 906 sites. Using the spatial correlation length of existing SOC observations, we identified 484 new observation sites would be needed to provide the best estimate of the present status of SOC stocks in Alaska. We then used average decadal projections (2020-2099) of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to investigate whether the location of identified observation sites will shift/change under future climate. Our results showed 12-41 additional observation sites (depending on emission scenarios) will be required to capture the impact of projected climatic conditions by 2100 on the spatial heterogeneity of Alaskan SOC stocks. Our results represent an ideal distribution

  13. Tibetan Plateau glacier and hydrological change under stratospheric aerosol injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    As an important inland freshwater resource, mountain glaciers are highly related to human life, they provide water for many large rivers and play a very important role in regional water cycles. The response of mountain glaciers to future climate change is a topic of concern especially to the many people who rely on glacier-fed rivers for purposes such as irrigation. Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection is a method of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. How the geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection affects the mass balance of mountain glaciers and adjacent river discharge is little understood. In this study, we use regional climate model WRF and catchment-based river model CaMa-Flood to study the impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection to Tibetan Plateau glacier mass balance and adjacent river discharge. To facilitate mountain glacier mass balance study, we improve the description of mountain glacier in the land surface scheme of WRF. The improvements include: (1) a fine mesh nested in WRF horizontal grid to match the highly non-uniform spatial distribution of the mountain glaciers, (2) revising the radiation flux at the glacier surface considering the surrounding terrain. We use the projections of five Earth system models for CMIP5 rcp45 and GeoMIP G4 scenarios to drive the WRF and CaMa-Flood models. The G4 scenario, which uses stratospheric aerosols to reduce the incoming shortwave while applying the rcp4.5 greenhouse gas forcing, starts stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection at a rate of 5 Tg per year over the period 2020-2069. The ensemble projections suggest relatively slower glacier mass loss rates and reduced river discharge at Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions under geoengineering scenario by stratospheric aerosol injection.

  14. Exploring Horizon 2020: opportunities for CERN under the new EU Framework Programme

    CERN Multimedia

    Agnes Szeberenyi

    2014-01-01

    December marked the end of the EU Framework Programme 7 (FP7), which ran between 2007 and 2013. During these seven years, CERN's involvement was very fruitful. The Organization participated in 87 EU projects - out of which CERN was the coordinating institute for 36 projects - with a corresponding European Commission (EC) funding of more than €110 million. This ranked CERN in the top 50 out of more than 15,000 FP7 participants.   CERN's involvement in FP7 projects. CERN was primarily involved in the FP7 pillars: Research Infrastructures (14 projects), e-Infrastructures (20 projects), Marie Curie actions (28 projects) and ERC grants (9 projects). In terms of proposal success rate and received EU funding, CERN's involvement in the Marie Curie actions programme was the most successful. Half of the total EC funding received at CERN was obtained through Marie Curie actions to train and improve the mobility of scientists and engineers at different stages of their ca...

  15. Smart transactive energy framework in grid-connected multiple home microgrids under independent and coalition operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marzband, Mousa; Azarinejadian, Fatemeh; Savaghebi, Mehdi

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a smart Transactive energy (TE) framework in which home microgrids (H-MGs) can collaborate with each other in a multiple H-MG system by forming coalitions for gaining competitiveness in the market. Profit allocation due to coalition between H-MGs is an important issue...... for ensuring the optimal use of installed resources in the whole multiple H-MG system. In addition, considering demand fluctuations, energy production based on renewable resources in the multiple H-MG can be accomplished by demand-side management strategies that try to establish mechanisms to allow...... for a flatter demand curve. In this regard, demand shifting potential can be tapped through shifting certain amounts of energy demand from some time periods to others with lower expected demand, typically to match price values and to ensure that existing generation will be economically sufficient. It is also...

  16. A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

    2010-02-01

    In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Cost Recommendation under Uncertainty in IQWiG's Efficiency Frontier Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; Lhachimi, Stefan K; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-02-01

    The National Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) employs an efficiency frontier (EF) framework to facilitate setting maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is used when yes/no reimbursement decisions are sought based on a fixed threshold. In the IQWiG framework, an additional layer of complexity arises as the EF itself may vary its shape in each PSA iteration, and thus the willingness-to-pay, indicated by the EF segments, may vary. To explore the practical problems arising when, within the EF approach, maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions are sought through PSA. When the EF is varied in a PSA, cost recommendations for new interventions may be determined by the mean or the median of the distances between each intervention's point estimate and each EF. Implications of using these metrics were explored in a simulation study based on the model used by IQWiG to assess the cost-effectiveness of 4 antidepressants. Depending on the metric used, cost recommendations can be contradictory. Recommendations based on the mean can also be inconsistent. Results (median) suggested that costs of duloxetine, venlafaxine, mirtazapine, and bupropion should be decreased by €131, €29, €12, and €99, respectively. These recommendations were implemented and the analysis repeated. New results suggested keeping the costs as they were. The percentage of acceptable PSA outcomes increased 41% on average, and the uncertainty associated to the net health benefit was significantly reduced. The median of the distances between every intervention outcome and every EF is a good proxy for the cost recommendation that would be given should the EF be fixed. Adjusting costs according to the median increased the probability of acceptance and reduced the uncertainty around the net health benefit distribution, resulting in a reduced uncertainty for decision makers.

  18. Self-Regulated Learning: The Continuous-Change Conceptual Framework and a Vision of New Paradigm, Technology System, and Pedagogical Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huh, Yeol; Reigeluth, Charles M.

    2017-01-01

    A modified conceptual framework called the Continuous-Change Framework for self-regulated learning (SRL) is presented. Common elements and limitations among the past frameworks are discussed in relation to the modified conceptual framework. The iterative nature of the goal setting process and overarching presence of self-efficacy and motivational…

  19. Built environment change: a framework to support health-enhancing behaviour through environmental policy and health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berke, Ethan M; Vernez-Moudon, Anne

    2014-06-01

    As research examining the effect of the built environment on health accelerates, it is critical for health and planning researchers to conduct studies and make recommendations in the context of a robust theoretical framework. We propose a framework for built environment change (BEC) related to improving health. BEC consists of elements of the built environment, how people are exposed to and interact with them perceptually and functionally, and how this exposure may affect health-related behaviours. Integrated into this framework are the legal and regulatory mechanisms and instruments that are commonly used to effect change in the built environment. This framework would be applicable to medical research as well as to issues of policy and community planning.

  20. A Crisis Framework Applied to Macrosociological Family Changes: Marriage, Divorce, and Occupational Trends Associated with World War II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman-Blumen, Jean

    1975-01-01

    A typology of crises is developed to be used with critical aspects of the social system to predict both crisis and postcrisis period role changes. The crisis framework is then applied to macro-changes in family structure in response to an archetypal crisis, World War II. Census data generally support the hypotheses. (Author)

  1. Naming as Strategic Communication: Understanding Corporate Name Change through an Integrative Framework Encompassing Branding, Identity and Institutional Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmeltz, Line; Kjeldsen, Anna Karina

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a framework for understanding corporate name change as strategic communication. From a corporate branding perspective, the choice of a new name can be seen as a wish to stand out from a group of similar organizations. Conversely, from an institutional perspective, name change...

  2. Policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. The case of the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levina, E.; Jacob, J.S.; Ramos Bustillos, L.E.; Ortiz, I.

    2007-05-01

    This paper is the third in a series of AIXG (Annex I Expert Group on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)) papers that analyse the roles that national policy frameworks of various sectors play in adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is unlikely to be a standalone process. It occurs within the existing sectoral and cross-sectoral policy frameworks, including legal provisions, institutional structures, policies and management practices, and is supported by the available information tools. The previous two papers focused on the water sector. The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse policy frameworks that are important for facilitating adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal zones. The paper is based on the analysis of the Gulf of Mexico. Two countries, the US and Mexico, are examined, with a focus on two aspects of coastal zones: wetlands and built environment. Next to these two sectors attention is paid to four components that construct policy frameworks, namely legal framework, institutional landscape, policies and management tools, and information. Following a brief introduction of the Gulf of Mexico region, its physical and economic characteristics, the paper takes a look at current climatic conditions and trends in the Gulf region and expected climate change impacts and the key vulnerabilities of the region to these changes (Section 2). The rational for the scope and focus of the sectoral analysis presented in this paper can also be found in Section 2. Section 3 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern wetlands in the US and Mexico and their links with adaptation. Section 4 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern the development of human settlements, and adaptation to climate change. Sections 3 and 4 follow a structure similar to the one that was used for the two previous papers on policy frameworks for adaptation in the water sector. Both sections examine

  3. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2016-01-01

    SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of

  4. The Regional Entrepreneurial Transformation Process—A Mid-Level Framework for Describing and Fostering Socioeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Rüdiger Lange

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework for the socioeconomic transition of regions. It was developed in and for the region of Lusatia, which faces the challenge of becoming more entrepreneurial in order to maintain and regain economic strength. Based on theories of entrepreneurial ecosystems and structuration as well as on extensive practical experience, a mid-level framework for describing and fostering regional change is derived.

  5. Situating interventions to bridge the intention-behaviour gap: A framework for recruiting nonconscious processes for behaviour change

    OpenAIRE

    Papies, Esther K.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a situated cognition framework for creating social psychological interventions to bridge the intention–behaviour gap and illustrates this framework by reviewing examples from the domains of health behaviour, environmental behaviour, stereotyping, and aggression. A recurrent problem in behaviour change is the fact that often, intentions are not translated into behaviour, causing the so-called intention–behaviour gap. Here, it is argued that this happens when situational cue...

  6. Theories of behaviour change synthesised into a set of theoretical groupings: introducing a thematic series on the theoretical domains framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Jill J; O'Connor, Denise; Curran, Janet

    2012-04-24

    Behaviour change is key to increasing the uptake of evidence into healthcare practice. Designing behaviour-change interventions first requires problem analysis, ideally informed by theory. Yet the large number of partly overlapping theories of behaviour makes it difficult to select the most appropriate theory. The need for an overarching theoretical framework of behaviour change was addressed in research in which 128 explanatory constructs from 33 theories of behaviour were identified and grouped. The resulting Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) appears to be a helpful basis for investigating implementation problems. Research groups in several countries have conducted TDF-based studies. It seems timely to bring together the experience of these teams in a thematic series to demonstrate further applications and to report key developments. This overview article describes the TDF, provides a brief critique of the framework, and introduces this thematic series.In a brief review to assess the extent of TDF-based research, we identified 133 papers that cite the framework. Of these, 17 used the TDF as the basis for empirical studies to explore health professionals' behaviour. The identified papers provide evidence of the impact of the TDF on implementation research. Two major strengths of the framework are its theoretical coverage and its capacity to elicit beliefs that could signify key mediators of behaviour change. The TDF provides a useful conceptual basis for assessing implementation problems, designing interventions to enhance healthcare practice, and understanding behaviour-change processes. We discuss limitations and research challenges and introduce papers in this series.

  7. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  8. LandCaRe-DSS - model based tools for irrigation management under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotterweich, Markus; Wilkinson, Kristina; Cassel, Martin; Scherzer, Jörg; Köstner, Barbara; Berg, Michael; Grocholl, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have a strong influence on agricultural systems in the future. It will be important for decision makers and stakeholders to assess the impact of climate change at the farm and regional level in order to facilitate and maintain a sustainable and profitable farming infrastructure. Climate change impact studies have to incorporate aspects of uncertainty and the underlying knowledge is constantly expanding and improving. Decision support systems (DSS) with flexible data bases are therefore a useful tool for management and planning: different models can be applied under varying boundary conditions within a conceptual framework and the results can be used e.g. to show the effects of climate change scenarios and different land management options. Within this project, the already existing LandCaRe DSS will be further enhanced and improved. A first prototype had been developed for two regions in eastern Germany, mainly to show the effects of climate change on yields, nutrient balances and farm economy. The new model version will be tested and applied for a region in north-western Germany (Landkreis Uelzen) where arable land makes up about 50% of overall land-use and where 80 % of the arable land is already irrigated. For local decision makers, it will be important to know how water demand and water availability are likely to change in the future: Is more water needed for irrigation? Is more water actually available for irrigation? Will the existing limits for ground water withdrawal be sufficient for farmers to irrigate their crops? How can the irrigation water demand be influenced by land management options like the use of different crops and varieties or different farming and irrigation techniques? The main tasks of the project are (I) the integration of an improved irrigation model, (II) the development of a standardized interface to apply the DSS in different regions, (III) to optimize the graphical user interface, (IV) to transfer and

  9. Frameworks and communication: perspectives in tackling the climate change challenge for energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenstra, W.J.; Engelenburg, B.C.W. van; Grootveld, G. van

    1999-01-01

    Energy supply is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. In the long term these emissions will have to be greatly reduced (especially in the industrialised countries where reductions on the order of 50-80% will be needed) in order to stabilise the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Such a reduction is very ambitious and given the inertia of the energy supply system, the path to this goal should preferably be set out immediately. The perspective for thinking about this problem is sustainable development. We will elaborate on the perspective starting from the positive results of the Netherlands governmental research programme on sustainable technological development. The resulting approach or method of this programme can be summarised in five golden rules, which will be explained. The core of the method is the development of a vision regarding a sustainable future. In our case this vision is based on a step-by-step approach towards a climate neutral and possibly renewable energy supply. The costs for emission abatement are assumed to increase in each step. For each step we will present a general picture of the expected changes in the supply system. Such a picture is not the only conceivable reality for energy supply but is an indicative framework. These frameworks are useful tools to structure the discussion about the future of energy supply. We will show that the vision not only leads to drawing general conclusion but also has led to a real project which deals with the development of technologies to produce climate neutral energy-carriers. (Author)

  10. Recognition of Debt Restructuring and Resolution Measures under the European Union Regulatory Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, T.M.C.

    Under the proposed Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, member states will be required to provide for bail-in powers to restructure failing financial institutions. At this moment, the Dutch, French, UK and German legislator already provide public authorities with resolution powers. In order to be

  11. Mathematics Teaching as Problem Solving: A Framework for Studying Teacher Metacognition Underlying Instructional Practice in Mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artzt, Alice F.; Armour-Thomas, Eleanor

    1998-01-01

    Uses a "teaching as problem solving" perspective to examine the components of metacognition underlying the instructional practice of seven experienced and seven beginning secondary-school mathematics teachers. Data analysis of observations, lesson plans, videotapes, and audiotapes of structured interviews suggests that the metacognition of…

  12. A Nonlinear Framework of Delayed Particle Smoothing Method for Vehicle Localization under Non-Gaussian Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Xiao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel nonlinear framework of smoothing method, non-Gaussian delayed particle smoother (nGDPS, is proposed, which enables vehicle state estimation (VSE with high accuracy taking into account the non-Gaussianity of the measurement and process noises. Within the proposed method, the multivariate Student’s t-distribution is adopted in order to compute the probability distribution function (PDF related to the process and measurement noises, which are assumed to be non-Gaussian distributed. A computation approach based on Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is designed to cope with the mean and the covariance matrix of the proposal non-Gaussian distribution. A delayed Gibbs sampling algorithm, which incorporates smoothing of the sampled trajectories over a fixed-delay, is proposed to deal with the sample degeneracy of particles. The performance is investigated based on the real-world data, which is collected by low-cost on-board vehicle sensors. The comparison study based on the real-world experiments and the statistical analysis demonstrates that the proposed nGDPS has significant improvement on the vehicle state accuracy and outperforms the existing filtering and smoothing methods.

  13. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    were only slightly involved in C regulation within the 0-30 cm layer. The proposed BBN framework was flexible to perform both field-scale validation and regional-scale predictions. Moreover, BBN provided guidelines for improved land management strategies in a perspective of climate change scenarios, although further validation, including a broader set of experimental data, is needed to strengthen the outcomes across Veneto region.

  14. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is

  15. The framework convention on climate change a convention for sustainable energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassing, P.; Mendis, M.S.; Menezes, L.M.; Gowen, M.M.

    1996-12-31

    In 1992, over 165 countries signed the United Nation`s Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). These countries have implicitly agreed to alter their `anthropogenic activities` that increase the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere and deplete the natural sinks for these same greenhouse gases. The energy sector is the major source of the primary anthropogenic GHGs, notably carbon dioxide and methane. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries presently account for the major share of GHG emissions from the energy sector. However, the developing countries are also rapidly increasing their contribution to global GHG emissions as a result of their growing consumption of fossil-based energy. Implementation of this global climate change convention, if seriously undertaken by the signatory countries, will necessitate changes in the energy mix and production processes in both the OECD and developing countries. International actions also will be needed to put the world on a sustainable energy path. By adoption of the FCCC, representatives of the world`s populations have indicated their desire to move toward such a path. The Conference of Parties to the Convention has just concluded its second meeting, at which the Parties endorsed a U.S. proposal that legally binding and enforceable emissions targets be adopted. It is clearly evident that the FCCC, as presently operating, cannot achieve the objective of stabilizing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere unless it adopts a major protocol to significantly reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions. As demonstrated here, a good starting point in determining the steps the Parties to the FCCC should take in designing a protocol is to remember that the primary source of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the consumption of fossil fuels and the future growth of GHG emissions will derive primarily from the ever-increasing demand for and consumption of these fuels.

  16. A unifying concept of coccolithophore sensitivity to changing carbonate chemistry embedded in an ecological framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Lennart Thomas; Riebesell, Ulf; Gutowska, Magdalena A.; Federwisch, Luisa; Schulz, Kai Georg

    2015-06-01

    Coccolithophores are a group of unicellular phytoplankton species whose ability to calcify has a profound influence on biogeochemical element cycling. Calcification rates are controlled by a large variety of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these factors, carbonate chemistry has gained considerable attention during the last years as coccolithophores have been identified to be particularly sensitive to ocean acidification. Despite intense research in this area, a general concept harmonizing the numerous and sometimes (seemingly) contradictory responses of coccolithophores to changing carbonate chemistry is still lacking to date. Here, we present the "substrate-inhibitor concept" which describes the dependence of calcification rates on carbonate chemistry speciation. It is based on observations that calcification rate scales positively with bicarbonate (HCO3-), the primary substrate for calcification, and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can limit cell growth, whereas it is inhibited by protons (H+). This concept was implemented in a model equation, tested against experimental data, and then applied to understand and reconcile the diverging responses of coccolithophorid calcification rates to ocean acidification obtained in culture experiments. Furthermore, we (i) discuss how other important calcification-influencing factors (e.g. temperature and light) could be implemented in our concept and (ii) embed it in Hutchinson's niche theory, thereby providing a framework for how carbonate chemistry-induced changes in calcification rates could be linked with changing coccolithophore abundance in the oceans. Our results suggest that the projected increase of H+ in the near future (next couple of thousand years), paralleled by only a minor increase of inorganic carbon substrate, could impede calcification rates if coccolithophores are unable to fully adapt. However, if calcium carbonate (CaCO3) sediment dissolution and terrestrial weathering begin to increase the oceans' HCO3

  17. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  18. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  19. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Linda A; Blate, Geoffrey M; McNulty, Steven G; Millar, Constance I; Moser, Susanne; Neilson, Ronald P; Peterson, David L

    2009-12-01

    This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

  20. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  1. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

    2009-01-01

    This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

  2. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

  3. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

  4. Forest pathogens and diseases under changing climate-A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raza, M. M.; Khan, M. A.; Aslam, H. M. U.; Riaz, K.

    2015-01-01

    Changing climate threatens tree health by affecting the likelihood, frequency of occurrence, types and severity of forest diseases caused by diverse pests, resultantly altering the forest ecosystems. The present review covers the relationship between climate and diverse cases of forest diseases and potential shocks of climate change on pathogens and diseases. Biotic diseases, cankers, decays, declines, foliar diseases, root diseases and stem rust of pine have been reviewed with some illustrations of potential disease effects with predicted changing climate. The impact of changing climate on host, pathogen, and their interaction will have frequent and mostly unsympathetic outcomes to forest ecosystems. By employing the proactive and modern scientific management strategies like monitoring, modeling prediction, risk rating, planning, genetic diversity and facilitated migration, genetic protection and breeding for disease resistance and relating results to forest policy, planning as well as decision making, the suspicions innate to climate change effects can be minimized. (author)

  5. Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Constable, Andrew; Wotherspoon, Simon; Raymond, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. PMID:23405116

  6. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

  7. Environmental changes in the western Amazonia: morphological framework, geochemistry, palynology and radiocarbon dating data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horbe, Adriana M.C.; Behling, Hermann; Nogueira, Afonso C.R.; Mapes, Russell

    2011-01-01

    The sediments from the Coari lake, a 'terra firme' lake sculpted into Plio-Pleistocene deposits, and the Acara lake, a flooding-type lake developed on Quaternary sediments in the flood plain of the mid-Solimoes river, in the western Amazonia, Brazil, were studied to investigate the environmental condition of their developing. This study includes mineral composition, geochemistry, Pb isotope, palinology, radiocarbon-age and morphological framework of the lakes obtained from SRTM satellite images. The geological and the environmental conditions in the two lakes are highly variable and suggest that their evolution reflect autogenic processes under humid rain forest condition. Although kaolinite, quartz, muscovite, illite, and smectite are the main minerals in both lakes, the geochemistry indicates distinct source, the Acara lake sediments have higher concentrations of Al 2 O 3 , Fe 2 O 3 , Fe O, Ca O, K 2 O, Mg O, Na 2 O, P 2 O 5 , Ba, V, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb, Sr, Li, Y and La and have more radiogenic Pb than the Coari lake sediments. The radiocarbon ages suggest that at 10160 yr BP the Coari lake started to be developed due to avulsion of the Solimoes river, and the Acara lake was formed by the meander abandonment of Solimoes river retaining its grass dominated shore at ca. 3710 yr BP. (author)

  8. A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Udie

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1 a preliminary scoping activity; (2 the vulnerability assessment; and (3 mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

  9. Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main

  10. Biota monitoring under the Water Framework Directive: On tissue choice and fish species selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fliedner, Annette; Rüdel, Heinz; Lohmann, Nina; Buchmeier, Georgia; Koschorreck, Jan

    2018-04-01

    The study addresses the topic of suitable matrices for chemical analysis in fish monitoring and discusses the effects of data normalization in the context of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Differences between species are considered by comparing three frequently monitored species of different trophic levels, i.e., chub (Squalius cephalus, n = 28), (bream, Abramis brama, n = 11), and perch (Perca fluviatilis, n = 19) sampled in the German Danube. The WFD priority substances dioxins, furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCDD/F + dl-PCB), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE), α-hexabromocyclododecane (α-HBCDD), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), mercury (Hg), and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) as well as non-dioxin-like (ndl)-PCB were analyzed separately in fillet and carcass and whole body concentrations were calculated. Hg was analyzed in individual fish fillets and carcasses, all other substances were determined in pool samples, which were compiled on the basis of fish size (3 chub pools, 1 bream pool, 2 perch pools). The data were normalized to 5% lipid weight (or 26% dry mass in the case of Hg and PFOS) for comparison between matrices and species. Hg concentrations were generally higher in fillet than in whole fish (mean whole fish-to-fillet ratio: 0.7) whereas all other substances were mostly higher in whole fish. In the case of lipophilic substances these differences leveled after lipid normalization. Significant correlations (p ≤ .05) were detected between Hg and fish weight and age. Hg concentrations varied least among younger fish. PCDD/F, dl-PCB, ndl-PCB, PBDE, α-HBCDD and HCB correlated significantly (p ≤ .05) with lipid concentrations. Fillet-to-whole fish conversion equations and/or conversion factors were derived for all substances except α-HCBDD. Although more data also for individual fish would be desirable the results are nevertheless a step on the way to translate fillet concentrations of priority

  11. Changes in Electrokinetic Coupling Coefficients of Granite under Triaxial Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osamu Kuwano

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Electrokinetic phenomena are believed to be the most likely origin of electromagnetic signals preceding or accompanying earthquakes. The intensity of the source current due to the electrokinetic phenomena is determined by the fluid flux and the electrokinetic coupling coefficient called streaming current coefficient; therefore, how the coefficient changes before rupture is essential. Here, we show how the electrokinetic coefficients change during the rock deformation experiment up to failure. The streaming current coefficient did not increase before failure, but continued to decrease up to failure, which is explained in terms of the elastic closure of capillary. On the other hand, the streaming potential coefficient, which is the product of the streaming current coefficient and bulk resistivity of the rock, increased at the onset of dilatancy. It may be due to change in bulk resistivity. Our result indicates that the zeta potential of the newly created surface does not change so much from that of the preexisting fluid rock interface.

  12. Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E.

    2017-01-01

    Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large

  13. Propulsion Physics Under the Changing Density Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Glen A.

    2011-01-01

    To grow as a space faring race, future spaceflight systems will requires new propulsion physics. Specifically a propulsion physics model that does not require mass ejection without limiting the high thrust necessary to accelerate within or beyond our solar system and return within a normal work period or lifetime. In 2004 Khoury and Weltman produced a density dependent cosmology theory they called Chameleon Cosmology, as at its nature, it is hidden within known physics. This theory represents a scalar field within and about an object, even in the vacuum. Whereby, these scalar fields can be viewed as vacuum energy fields with definable densities that permeate all matter; having implications to dark matter/energy with universe acceleration properties; implying a new force mechanism for propulsion physics. Using Chameleon Cosmology, the author has developed a new propulsion physics model, called the Changing Density Field (CDF) Model. This model relates to density changes in these density fields, where the density field density changes are related to the acceleration of matter within an object. These density changes in turn change how an object couples to the surrounding density fields. Whereby, thrust is achieved by causing a differential in the coupling to these density fields about an object. Since the model indicates that the density of the density field in an object can be changed by internal mass acceleration, even without exhausting mass, the CDF model implies a new propellant-less propulsion physics model

  14. Analysing the conflicting requirements of the framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enting, I.G.

    1995-01-01

    The objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change imply the conflicting constraints of minimising concentrations and maximising emissions (e.g. minimising emission restrictions). Carbon cycle models are readily used for 'forward' calculations of future CO 2 given specific emissions and the 'inverse' problem of deducing the emissions required to achieve specific concentration profiles. However these approaches (a) are each geared to only one side of the problem; and (b) each requires the specification of a particular pathway in terms of either emissions or concentrations. These limitations can be avoided by analysing the relations between future emissions and concentrations of CO 2 using a formalism that optimises overall possible future emission profiles, subject to relevant constraints on both emissions and concentrations. The paper presents specific calculations indicating which combinations of upper bounds on concentrations and lower bounds on emissions are mutually inconsistent and which are consistent. The authors calculate the (smaller) consistency regions that apply if emission reductions are restricted to less than 0.5% p.a. or less than 1% p.a. In each case, two reference periods (1990-2100 and 1990-2200) are considered. 11 refs., 4 figs

  15. Resilience as a framework for analyzing the adaptation of mountain summer pasture systems to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baptiste Nettier

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Social-ecological resilience is defined by Brian Walker and colleagues as "the capacity of a social-ecological system (SES to absorb disturbances and reorganize while undergoing change so as to continue to retain essentially the same function, structure, feedbacks, and therefore identity." It is an increasingly widespread concept whose success depends, among other things, on the promise of its rapid transfer from science into practice and its operational character for the sustainable management of SESs. However, tangible examples of management methods based on resilience remain limited in the scientific literature. Here, we test the resilience management framework proposed by Brian Walker and David Salt by applying it to the case of mountain summer pastures in the French Alps, which are complex SESs in which human and ecological dimensions are closely linked and subject to substantial perturbations due to climate change. Three steps were implemented: (1 building a conceptual model based on expert knowledge of the functioning of summer pastures; (2 building, from the model, a template for summer pasture resilience analysis; and (3 testing the operational character of the model and the template for two pairs of contrasting cases. This heuristic tool enables understanding the ways in which farmers and herders manage the resilience of their system but does not aim to quantify resilience. The method developed, together with the resilience concept, provide insights into the functioning of summer pastures from both biophysical and management perspectives. The modeling process constitutes a learning process, which will support the implementation of adaptive management. We identified three critical points for making the method truly operational: basing modeling on an equal consideration of social and ecological dimensions, defining the boundaries of the modeled system based on the social dimension, and selecting a scale of analysis coherent with the type

  16. A Dynamic Information Framework (DIF): A Portal for the Changing Biogeochemistry of Aquatic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richey, J. E.; Fernandes, E. C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The ability of societies to adapt to climate and landuse change in aquatic systems is functionally and practically expressed by how regional stakeholders are able to address complex management issues. These targets represent a very complex set of intersecting issues of scale, cross-sector science and technology, education, politics, and economics. Implications transcend individual projects and ministries. An immediate challenge is to incorporate the realities of changing environmental conditions in these sectors into the policies and projects of the Ministries nominally responsible. Ideally this would be done on the basis of the absolute best understanding of the issues involved, and done in a way that optimizes a multi-stakeholder return. Central to a response is "actionable information-" the synthesis and "bringing to life" of the key information that integrates the end-to-end knowledge required to provide the high-level decision support to make the most informed decisions. But, in practice, the information necessary and even perspectives are virtually absent, in much of especially the developing world. To meet this challenge, we have been developing a Dynamic Information Framework (DIF), primarily through collaborations with the World Bank in Asia, Africa, and Brazil. The DIF is, essentially a decision support structure, built around "earth system" models. The environment is built on progressive information layers that are fed through hydrological and geospatial landscape models to produce outputs that address specific science questions related to water resources management of the region. Information layers from diverse sources are assembled, according to the principles of how the landscape is organized, and computer models are used to bring the information "to life." A fundamental aspect to a DIF is not only the convergence of multi-sector information, but how that information can be conveyed, in the most compelling, and visual, manner. Deployment of the

  17. Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen M. Thorne

    2015-03-01

    strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

  18. Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Cummings, Jonathan; Crouse, Debby; Block, Giselle; Bloom, Valary; Gerhart, Matt; Goldbeck, Steve; Huning, Beth; Sloop, Christina; Stewart, Mendel; Taylor, Karen; Valoppi, Laura

    2015-01-01

    considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

  19. What role does performance information play in securing improvement in healthcare? a conceptual framework for levers of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levesque, Jean-Frederic; Sutherland, Kim

    2017-08-28

    Across healthcare systems, there is consensus on the need for independent and impartial assessment of performance. There is less agreement about how measurement and reporting performance improves healthcare. This paper draws on academic theories to develop a conceptual framework-one that classifies in an integrated manner the ways in which change can be leveraged by healthcare performance information. A synthesis of published frameworks. The framework identifies eight levers for change enabled by performance information, spanning internal and external drivers, and emergent and planned processes: (1) cognitive levers provide awareness and understanding; (2) mimetic levers inform about the performance of others to encourage emulation; (3) supportive levers provide facilitation, implementation tools or models of care to actively support change; (4) formative levers develop capabilities and skills through teaching, mentoring and feedback; (5) normative levers set performance against guidelines, standards, certification and accreditation processes; (6) coercive levers use policies, regulations incentives and disincentives to force change; (7) structural levers modify the physical environment or professional cultures and routines; (8) competitive levers attract patients or funders. This framework highlights how performance measurement and reporting can contribute to eight different levers for change. It provides guidance into how to align performance measurement and reporting into quality improvement programme. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Fuel cell based micro-combined heat and power under different policy frameworks - An economic analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lise-Lotte Pade; Schröder, Sascha Thorsten

    2013-01-01

    constellations of operational strategies, ownership structures and promotion schemes and assess the necessary support levels for residential fuel cells under these constellations. We find that the necessary support levels are not excessively high compared to the initial support levels for e.g. photovoltaic...... political objectives on the design of the future energy system. This article takes the point of departure in the existing support schemes, most common ownership structures, energy prices, electricity demand and heating demand in Denmark, France and Portugal. For the three countries, we analyse different...... systems in Germany. Especially net metering in Denmark and price premiums for fuel cells functioning as a virtual power plant in France and Portugal seems promising. The annual number of operation hours depends strongly on the operational scheme. For thermal-led units, cold start and modulation capacity...

  1. Fatigue Life of Cast Titanium Alloys Under Simulated Denture Framework Displacements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, Mari; Chan, Kwai S.; Hummel, Susan K.; Mason, Robert L.; Okabe, Toru

    2013-02-01

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the hypothesis that the mechanical properties and fatigue behavior of removable partial dentures (RPD) made from cast titanium alloys can be improved by alloying with low-cost, low-melting elements such as Cu, Al, and Fe using commercially pure Ti (CP-Ti) and Ti-6Al-4V as controls. RPD specimens in the form of rest-shaped, clasp, rectangular-shaped specimens and round-bar tensile specimens were cast using an experimental Ti-5Al-5Cu alloy, Ti-5Al-1Fe, and Ti-1Fe in an Al2O3-based investment with a centrifugal-casting machine. The mechanical properties of the alloys were determined by performing tensile tests under a controlled displacement rate. The fatigue life of the RPD specimens was tested by the three-point bending in an MTS testing machine under a cyclic displacement of 0.5 mm. Fatigue tests were performed at 10 Hz at ambient temperature until the specimens failed into two pieces. The tensile data were statistically analyzed using one-way ANOVA (α = 0.05) and the fatigue life data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (α = 0.05). The experimental Ti-5Al-5Cu alloy showed a significantly higher average fatigue life than that of either CP-Ti or Ti-5Al-1Fe alloy ( p < 0.05). SEM fractography showed that the fatigue cracks initiated from surface grains, surface pores, or hard particles in surface grains instead of the internal casting pores. Among the alloys tested, the Ti-5Al-5Cu alloy exhibited favorable results in fabricating dental appliances with an excellent fatigue behavior compared with other commercial alloys.

  2. Under pressure: Climate change, upwelling and eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisol eGarcía-Reyes

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS, stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., winds to whales studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

  3. Planning in a climate of change: Choices under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etkin, D.

    1993-01-01

    As part of a plan to ensure that potential changes in the Canadian environment as a result of climate change are considered in major projects, the Canadian Climate Centre has developed a set of interim guidelines for consideration of climate change concerns in environmental assessments. One such guideline is to identify the sensitivity of the project to climate variability and change, including increased risks of extreme events. This guideline is discussed in a consideration of different methodologies of assessing possible future impacts, and in an examination of ways to assemble a climate data base. Climatological data sets may be obtained from climate normals, historical or paleoclimate data, global climate models, or spatial analogues. Methodological approaches include selecting the most likely future, selecting a range of scenarios, bounding the problem, or using a probability distribution function. A case study is used for illustration, in which the effects of climate change on a permafrost dyke of a tailings pond at an Arctic mining operation are assessed. 18 refs., 3 figs

  4. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  5. Vertical governance change and product differentiation under decreasing component costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, B.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kok, de A.G.

    In deciding on whether and when to outsource component production, firms should consider the trade-off between total production costs and the ability to horizontally differentiate products. We study the outsourcing decision in a duopoly under decreasing but uncertain market rates for components,

  6. Vertical governance change and product differentiation under decreasing component costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, B.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kok, A.G. de

    2015-01-01

    In deciding on whether and when to outsource component production, firms should consider the trade-off between total production costs and the ability to horizontally differentiate products. We study the outsourcing decision in a duopoly under decreasing but uncertain market rates for components,

  7. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-01-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in

  8. Changes in mixed layer depth under climate change projections in two CGCMs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France)

    2009-08-15

    Two coupled general circulation models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models, were chosen to examine changes in mixed layer depth (MLD) in the equatorial tropical Pacific and its relationship with ENSO under climate change projections. The control experiment used pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations whereas the 2 x CO{sub 2} experiment used doubled CO{sub 2} levels. In the control experiment, the MLD simulated in the MRI model was shallower than that in the GFDL model. This resulted in the tropical Pacific's mean sea surface temperature (SST) increasing at different rates under global warming in the two models. The deeper the mean MLD simulated in the control simulation, the lesser the warming rate of the mean SST simulated in the 2 x CO{sub 2} experiment. This demonstrates that the MLD is a key parameter for regulating the response of tropical mean SST to global warming. In particular, in the MRI model, increased stratification associated with global warming amplified wind-driven advection within the mixed layer, leading to greater ENSO variability. On the other hand, in the GFDL model, wind-driven currents were weak, which resulted in mixed-layer dynamics being less sensitive to global warming. The relationship between MLD and ENSO was also examined. Results indicated that the non-linearity between the MLD and ENSO is enhanced from the control run to the 2 x CO{sub 2} run in the MRI model, in contrast, the linear relationship between the MLD index and ENSO is unchanged despite an increase in CO{sub 2} concentrations in the GFDL model. (orig.)

  9. Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lamichhane, Jay Ram; Barzman, Marco; Booij, Kees

    2015-01-01

    ) and the severity of their outbreaks. Increasing concerns over health and the environment as well as new legislation on pesticide use, particularly in the European Union, urge us to find sustainable alternatives to pesticide-based pest management. Here, we review the effect of climate change on crop protection......Agriculture in the twenty-first century faces the challenge of meeting food demands while satisfying sustainability goals. The challenge is further complicated by climate change which affects the distribution of crop pests (intended as insects, plants, and pathogenic agents injurious to crops...... and propose strategies to reduce the impact of future invasive as well as rapidly evolving resident populations. The major points are the following: (1) the main consequence of climate change and globalization is a heightened level of unpredictability of spatial and temporal interactions between weather...

  10. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calfapietra, C.; Gielen, B.; Karnosky, D.; Ceulemans, R.; Scarascia Mugnozza, G.

    2010-01-01

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. - Growth and management of agroforestry plantations will be influenced by climate change.

  11. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calfapietra, C., E-mail: carlo.calfapietra@ibaf.cnr.i [Institute of Agro-Environmental and Forest Biology (IBAF), National Research Council (CNR), Via Salaria km 29300, 00015 Monterotondo Scalo, Roma (Italy); Gielen, B. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Karnosky, D. [Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931 (United States); Ceulemans, R. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Scarascia Mugnozza, G. [Department of Agronomy, Forestry and Land Use (DAF), Agricultural Research Council of Italy (CRA), Via del Caravita 7/a 00186 Roma (Italy)

    2010-04-15

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. - Growth and management of agroforestry plantations will be influenced by climate change.

  12. Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

    2010-01-01

    This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

  13. Rheological changes of polyamide 12 under oscillatory shear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielicki, C.; Gronhoff, B.; Wortberg, J.

    2014-05-01

    Changes in material properties as well as process deviation prevent Laser Sintering (LS) technology from manufacturing of quality assured parts in a series production. In this context, the viscosity of Polyamide 12 (PA12) is assumed to possess the most significant influence, as it determines the sintering velocity, the resistance towards melt formation and the bonding strength of sintered layers. Moreover, the viscosity is directly related to the structure of the molten polymer. In particular, it has been recently reported that LS process conditions lead to structural changes of PA12 affecting viscosity and coalescence of adjacent polymer particles, i.e. melt formation significantly. Structural change of PA12 was understood as a post condensation. Its influence on viscosity was described by a time and temperature depending rheological model whereas time dependence was considered by a novel structural change shift factor which was derived from melt volume rate data. In combination with process data that was recorded using online thermal imaging, the model is suitable to control the viscosity (processability of the material) as result of material and process properties. However, as soon as laser energy is exposed to the powder bed PA12 undergoes a phase transition from solid to molten state. Above the melting point, structural change is expected to occur faster due to a higher kinetic energy and free volume of the molten polymer. Oscillatory shear results were used to study the influence of aging time and for validation of the novel structural change shift factor and its model parameters which were calibrated based on LS processing condition.

  14. Carbon leakage revisited. Unilateral climate policy under directed technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maria, Corrado Di; Van derWerf, E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the consequences of unilateral climate policy in the presence of directed technical change. We develop a dynamic two-country model in which two otherwise identical countries differ in their environmental policy: one of the countries enforces a (binding) cap on emissions while the other does not. Focusing on carbon leakage, we show how, compared with a 'traditional' endogenous growth model, directed technical change will always lead to lower emissions in the unconstrained country. When clean and dirty goods are good substitutes, it may even be induced to reduce its emissions below the optimum level when both countries are unconstrained, so leakage is negative

  15. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation mo