Denmark's national inventory report. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2001. Emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

2003-04-01

This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due bye 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}. (au)

Joint Implementation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Technical and institutional challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swisher, J.N.

1997-01-01

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC) allows for the Joint Implementation (JI) of measures to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. The concept of JI refers to the implementation of such measures in one country with partial and/or technical support from another country, potentially fulfilling some of the supporting country's emission-reduction commitment under the FCCC. At present, all JI transactions are voluntary, and no country has claimed JI credit against existing FCCC commitments. Nevertheless, JI could have important implications for both the economic efficiency and the international equity of the implementation of the FCCC. The paper discusses some of the information needs of JI projects and seeks to clarify some of the common assumptions and arguments about JI. Issues regarding JI are distinguished according to those that are specific to JI as well as other types of regimes and transactions. The focus is on the position of developing countries and their potential risks and benefits regarding JI. 2 figs., 3 tabs., 35 refs

Denmark's national inventory report 2006 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2004. Emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

2006-08-15

This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2006. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2004 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

Denmark's national inventory report 2007 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2005. Emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

2007-10-15

This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2007. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2005 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

Engineering Change Management Method Framework in Mechanical Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Stekolschik, Alexander

2016-11-01

Engineering changes make an impact on different process chains in and outside the company, and lead to most error costs and time shifts. In fact, 30 to 50 per cent of development costs result from technical changes. Controlling engineering change processes can help us to avoid errors and risks, and contribute to cost optimization and a shorter time to market. This paper presents a method framework for controlling engineering changes at mechanical engineering companies. The developed classification of engineering changes and accordingly process requirements build the basis for the method framework. The developed method framework comprises two main areas: special data objects managed in different engineering IT tools and process framework. Objects from both areas are building blocks that can be selected to the overall business process based on the engineering process type and change classification. The process framework contains steps for the creation of change objects (both for overall change and for parts), change implementation, and release. Companies can select singleprocess building blocks from the framework, depending on the product development process and change impact. The developed change framework has been implemented at a division (10,000 employees) of a big German mechanical engineering company.

Denmark's national inventory report 2008 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2006. Emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Lyck, E.; Hjorth Mikkelsen, M. (and others)

2008-05-15

This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2008. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2006 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFC{sub s}, PFC{sub s} and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

Science.gov (United States)

Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy.

Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy. (letter)

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

A multidimensional framework of conceptual change for developing chemical equilibrium learning

Science.gov (United States)

Chanyoo, Wassana; Suwannoi, Paisan; Treagust, David F.

2018-01-01

The purposes of this research is to investigate the existing chemical equilibrium lessons in Thailand based on the multidimensional framework of conceptual change, to determine how the existing lessons could enhance students' conceptual change. This research was conducted based on qualitative perspective. Document, observations and interviews were used to collect data. To comprehend all students conceptions, diagnostic tests were applied comprised of The Chemical Equilibrium Diagnostic Test (the CEDT) and The Chemical Equilibrium Test for Reveal Conceptual Change (the CETforRCC). In addition, to study students' motivations, the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (the MSLQ) and students' task engagement were applied. Following each perspective of conceptual change - ontological, epistemological, and social/affective - the result showed that the existing chemical equilibrium unit did not enhance students' conceptual change, and some issues were found. The problems obstructed students conceptual change should be remedy under the multidimensional framework of conceptual change. Finally, some suggestions were provided to enhance students' conceptual change in chemical equilibrium effectively

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Science.gov (United States)

Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

2018-01-01

We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

Energy sustainability under the framework of telecoupling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Baling; Tan, Yi; Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Liu, Jianguo; Schweizer, Pia-Johanna; Shi, Haiqing; Zhou, Bin; Chen, Hao; Hu, Zhuangli

2016-01-01

Energy systems, which include energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution and utilization, are key infrastructures in modern society. Interactions among energy systems are generally studied under the framework of energy trade. Although such studies have generated important insights, there are limitations. Many distant interactions (e.g. those due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis) are not in the form of trade, but affect energy sustainability. Even when distant interactions are related to energy trade, they are not systematically analyzed. Environmental impacts of trade are often not integrated with economic analysis of trade. In this paper, to identify and fill important knowledge gaps, we apply an integrated framework of telecoupling (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances). The framework of telecoupling, which is more comprehensive and cross-disciplinary than the energy trade framework, is a useful theoretical and methodological tool for analyzing distant interactions among coupled human and natural systems (including energy systems). Telecouplings widely exist in energy systems with various forms and link energy sustainability of different countries closely, so we proposed some methods for energy sustainability analysis under the framework of telecoupling. From the aspect of causes, a method is proposed to judge whether the telecoupling driven by economic factors is conducive to energy sustainability. From the aspect of effects, a method is proposed to assess whether an event is conducive to energy sustainability. The telecoupling framework presents opportunities for more profound and comprehensive understanding of energy sustainability. - Highlights: • A new perspective to study energy sustainability under telecoupling is proposed. • Methods for assessing the causes and effects of energy sustainability are proposed. • Some specific examples of telecoupling in the energy systems are demonstrated.

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. J. Dermody

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

Changes in epistemic frameworks: Random or constrained?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ananka Loubser

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Since the emergence of a solid anti-positivist approach in the philosophy of science, an important question has been to understand how and why epistemic frameworks change in time, are modified or even substituted. In contemporary philosophy of science three main approaches to framework-change were detected in the humanist tradition:1. In both the pre-theoretical and theoretical domains changes occur according to a rather constrained, predictable or even pre-determined pattern (e.g. Holton.2. Changes occur in a way that is more random or unpredictable and free from constraints (e.g. Kuhn, Feyerabend, Rorty, Lyotard.3. Between these approaches, a middle position can be found, attempting some kind of synthesis (e.g. Popper, Lakatos.Because this situation calls for clarification and systematisation, this article in fact tried to achieve more clarity on how changes in pre-scientific frameworks occur, as well as provided transcendental criticism of the above positions. This article suggested that the above-mentioned positions are not fully satisfactory, as change and constancy are not sufficiently integrated. An alternative model was suggested in which changes in epistemic frameworks occur according to a pattern, neither completely random nor rigidly constrained, which results in change being dynamic but not arbitrary. This alternative model is integral, rather than dialectical and therefore does not correspond to position three. 

A country framework for analyzing climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, K.

1995-01-01

Once the global community accepted the threat of global climate change as a serious one, many countries began to study its possible consequences and the scope for national action that could help mitigate it. Governments will find that national climate change studies are useful quite apart from helping them to fulfill commitments under the FCCC. All countries, developed and developing, will benefit from an understanding of the sacrifice they need to make for the greater benefit of climate change mitigation. This sacrifice - that is, the set of trade-offs or the 'added burden' - is what economists refer to as the 'incremental cost' of climate change mitigation actions. All countries will benefit from knowing what these costs are and from knowing how much their national action will matter. Using measures of cost and mitigation, they will be able to choose from among their alternative national actions those with the greatest effect and the lowest incremental cost. Eligible countries can also use these measures to negotiate the amount of financial assistance they need from the financial mechanism of the FCCC or other sources. A country framework for medium-term considerations will yield results useful for investment planning, policy choice, and financial reimbursement (where appropriate). This is the focus of the framework outlined in this paper. (EG) 15 refs

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

2016-04-01

, but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-05-01

There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

A theoretical framework of organizational change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, G.; Polos, L.; van Witteloostuijn, A.; Christe-Zyse, J.

2013-01-01

Purpose – Organizational change is a risky endeavour. Most change initiatives fall short on their goals and produce high opportunity and process costs, which at times outweigh the content benefits of organizational change. This paper seeks to develop a framework, offering a theoretical toolbox to

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

2015-02-01

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Demosthenous

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change; France 2001. Troisieme communication nationale a la convention cadre des nations unies sur les changements climatiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-07-01

In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

Analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning management in the 21st Century under education THAILAND 4.0 framework

Science.gov (United States)

Jedaman, Pornchai; Buaraphan, Khajornsak; Pimdee, Paitoon; Yuenyong, Chokchai; Sukkamart, Aukkapong; Suksup, Charoen

2018-01-01

This article aims to study and analyze the 21st Century of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework, and factor analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative approaches in collecting data including a questionnaire survey, a documentary review and a Participatory Action Learning (PAL). The sample were sampling purposively. There were 225 administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Area Offices throughout Thailand. Out of 225, 183 (83.33%) and 42 (16.67%) respondents were the administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Offices, respectively. The quantitative data was analyzed by descriptive statistical analysis including mean, standard deviation. Also, the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was conducted to analyze the factors associated with sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework. The qualitative data was analyzed by using three main stages, i.e., data reduction, data organization, data interpretation to conclusion. The study revealed that sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework needs to focus on development, awareness of duty and responsibility, equality, moral and knowledge. All aspects should be integrated together in order to achieve the organizational goals, good governance culture and identity. Importantly, there were six "key" elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework: i) Professional Leadership Role, ii) Leadership Under Change, iii) Leadership Skills 4.0 in the 21st Century, iv) Development in the Pace With Change, v) Creativity and Creative Tension, and vi) Hold True Assessments. The CFA showed that the six key elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework by weight of each elements were significant at the .01 significance level.

Process change evaluation framework for allogeneic cell therapies: impact on drug development and commercialization.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Sally; Huang, Hsini; Warren, Kim; Mahdavi, Behzad; Smith, David; Jong, Simcha; Farid, Suzanne S

2016-04-01

Some allogeneic cell therapies requiring a high dose of cells for large indication groups demand a change in cell expansion technology, from planar units to microcarriers in single-use bioreactors for the market phase. The aim was to model the optimal timing for making this change. A development lifecycle cash flow framework was created to examine the implications of process changes to microcarrier cultures at different stages of a cell therapy's lifecycle. The analysis performed under assumptions used in the framework predicted that making this switch earlier in development is optimal from a total expected out-of-pocket cost perspective. From a risk-adjusted net present value view, switching at Phase I is economically competitive but a post-approval switch can offer the highest risk-adjusted net present value as the cost of switching is offset by initial market penetration with planar technologies. The framework can facilitate early decision-making during process development.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-01-01

This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

2017-07-01

facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The resilience canvas is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend that efforts now be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Science.gov (United States)

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

The ABLe change framework: a conceptual and methodological tool for promoting systems change.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster-Fishman, Pennie G; Watson, Erin R

2012-06-01

This paper presents a new approach to the design and implementation of community change efforts like a System of Care. Called the ABLe Change Framework, the model provides simultaneous attention to the content and process of the work, ensuring effective implementation and the pursuit of systems change. Three key strategies are employed in this model to ensure the integration of content and process efforts and effective mobilization of broad scale systems change: Systemic Action Learning Teams, Simple Rules, and Small Wins. In this paper we describe the ABLe Change Framework and present a case study in which we successfully applied this approach to one system of care effort in Michigan.

Does social marketing provide a framework for changing healthcare practice?

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Zoë Slote; Clarkson, Peter John

2009-07-01

We argue that social marketing can be used as a generic framework for analysing barriers to the take-up of clinical guidelines, and planning interventions which seek to enable this change. We reviewed the literature on take-up of clinical guidelines, in particular barriers and enablers to change; social marketing principles and social marketing applied to healthcare. We then applied the social marketing framework to analyse the literature and to consider implications for future guideline policy to assess its feasibility and accessibility. There is sizeable extant literature on healthcare practitioners' non-compliance with clinical guidelines. This is an international problem common to a number of settings. The reasons for poor levels of take up appear to be well understood, but not addressed adequately in practice. Applying a social marketing framework brings new insights to the problem." We show that a social marketing framework provides a useful solution-focused framework for systematically understanding barriers to individual behaviour change and designing interventions accordingly. Whether the social marketing framework provides an effective means of bringing about behaviour change remains an empirical question which has still to be tested in practice. The analysis presented here provides strong motivation to begin such testing.

Scalability under a Power Bound using the GREMLINs Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maiterth, Matthias

2015-01-01

With the move towards exascale, system and software developers will have to deal with issues of extreme parallelism. The system properties affected most by the increase in node and core count are the shared resources on node and across the system. The increase in parallelism leads to reduced memory and bandwidth when regarding individual cores. Since power is a limiting factor for supercomputers, and power is not fully utilized in current systems, overprovisioning compute resources is a viable approach to maximized power utilization. To maximize system performance in regard to these changing conditions, it is necessary to understand how resource restrictions impact performance and system behavior. For the purpose of understanding anticipated system properties the GREMLINs Framework was developed. The framework gives the opportunity to add power restrictions, hinder memory properties and introduce faults to study resilience, among others. These features give the opportunity to use current petascale technology to study problems system designers and software developers will have to face when moving towards exascale and beyond. This work describes the initial release of the GREMLINs Framework, developed for this work, and shows how it can be used to study the scaling behavior of proxy applications. These proxy applications represent a selection of HPC workloads important to the scientific community. The proxy applications studied are AMG2013, an algebraic multi-grid linear system solver, CoMD, a classical molecular dynamics proxy application and NEKBONE, an application that uses a high order spectral element method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations. The main interest of these studies lies in analysis regarding their power behavior at scale under a power bound. These findings show how the GREMLINs Framework can help systems and software designers to attain better application performance and can also be used as basis for CPU power balancing tools to use power more

Scalability under a Power Bound using the GREMLINs Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maiterth, Matthias [Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich (Germany)

2015-02-16

With the move towards exascale, system and software developers will have to deal with issues of extreme parallelism. The system properties affected most by the increase in node and core count are the shared resources on node and across the system. The increase in parallelism leads to reduced memory and bandwidth when regarding individual cores. Since power is a limiting factor for supercomputers, and power is not fully utilized in current systems, overprovisioning compute resources is a viable approach to maximized power utilization. To maximize system performance in regard to these changing conditions, it is necessary to understand how resource restrictions impact performance and system behavior. For the purpose of understanding anticipated system properties the GREMLINs Framework was developed. The framework gives the opportunity to add power restrictions, hinder memory properties and introduce faults to study resilience, among others. These features give the opportunity to use current petascale technology to study problems system designers and software developers will have to face when moving towards exascale and beyond. This work describes the initial release of the GREMLINs Framework, developed for this work, and shows how it can be used to study the scaling behavior of proxy applications. These proxy applications represent a selection of HPC workloads important to the scientific community. The proxy applications studied are AMG2013, an algebraic multi-grid linear system solver, CoMD, a classical molecular dynamics proxy application and NEKBONE, an application that uses a high order spectral element method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations. The main interest of these studies lies in analysis regarding their power behavior at scale under a power bound. These findings show how the GREMLINs Framework can help systems and software designers to attain better application performance and can also be used as basis for CPU power balancing tools to use power more

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Paris agreement: analysing the reporting requirements under the enhanced transparency framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Desgain, Denis DR; Sharma, Sudhir

At the Paris climate conference (COP-21) in December 2015, the Conference of the Parties decided to adopt the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This was the first time that 195 Parties had agreed on a universal, legally binding climate instrument......th October 2016, 74 Par¬ties had ratified the Agreement, accounting for 58.82% of global GHG emissions.1 The Paris Agreement will thus enter into force on 4th November 2016....

Spanish Nuclear Safety Research under International Frameworks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herranz, L. E.; Reventos, F.; Ahnert, C.; Jimenez, G.; Queral, C.; Verdu, G.; Miro, R.; Gallardo, S.

2013-10-01

The Nuclear Safety research requires a wide international collaboration of several involved groups. In this sense this paper pretends to show several examples of the Nuclear Safety research under international frameworks that is being performed in different Universities and Research Institutions like CIEMAT, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC), Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM) and Universitat Politenica de Valencia (UPV). (Author)

Frameworks for change in healthcare organisations: a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Graham P; Sutton, Elizabeth; Willars, Janet; Dixon-Woods, Mary

2013-08-01

Organisational change in complex healthcare systems is a multifaceted process. The English National Health Service recently introduced a 'Change Model' that seeks to offer an evidence-based framework for guiding change. We report findings from a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model and make recommendations for those developing the Model and its users. The evaluation involved 28 interviews with managers and clinicians making use of the Change Model in relation to a variety of projects. Interviews were fully transcribed and were analysed using an approach based on the Framework method. Participants saw the Change Model as valuable and practically useful. Fidelity to core principles of the Model was variable: participants often altered the Model, especially when using it to orchestrate the work of others. In challenging organisational contexts, the Change Model was sometimes used to delegitimise opposition rather than identify shared purpose among different interest groups. Those guiding change may benefit from frameworks, guidance and toolkits to structure and inform their planning and activities. Participants' experiences suggested the Change Model has much potential. Further work on its design and on supporting materials may optimise the approach, but its utility rests in particular on organisational cultures that support faithful application. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

2011-04-15

Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

A PCA-Based Change Detection Framework for Multidimensional Data Streams

KAUST Repository

Qahtan, Abdulhakim Ali Ali

2015-08-10

Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams is an important and challenging task. In unsupervised change detection, changes are usually detected by comparing the distribution in a current (test) window with a reference window. It is thus essential to design divergence metrics and density estimators for comparing the data distributions, which are mostly done for univariate data. Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams brings difficulties to the density estimation and comparisons. In this paper, we propose a framework for detecting changes in multidimensional data streams based on principal component analysis, which is used for projecting data into a lower dimensional space, thus facilitating density estimation and change-score calculations. The proposed framework also has advantages over existing approaches by reducing computational costs with an efficient density estimator, promoting the change-score calculation by introducing effective divergence metrics, and by minimizing the efforts required from users on the threshold parameter setting by using the Page-Hinkley test. The evaluation results on synthetic and real data show that our framework outperforms two baseline methods in terms of both detection accuracy and computational costs.

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Understanding Global Change: A New Conceptual Framework To Guide Teaching About Planetary Systems And Both The Causes And Effects Of Changes In Those Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, J.; Bean, J. R.

2016-12-01

Goals of the Next Generation Science Standards include understanding climate change and learning about ways to moderate the causes and mitigate the consequences of planetary-scale anthropogenic activities that interact synergistically to affect ecosystems and societies. The sheer number and scale of both causes and effects of global change can be daunting for teachers, and the lack of a clear conceptual framework for presenting this material usually leads educators (and textbooks) to present these phenomenon as a disjointed "laundry list." But an alternative approach is in the works. The Understanding Global Change web resource, currently under development at the UC Berkeley Museum of Paleontology, will provide educators with a conceptual framework, graphic models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS-aligned, interdisciplinary, global change curricula. The core of this resource is an original informational graphic that presents and relates Earth's global systems, human and non-human factors that produce changes in those systems, and the effects of those changes that scientists can measure.

Global climate change: a framework for nursing action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GAVIN J. ANDREWS

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Recent research papers and commentaries have articulated the considerable effects that global climate change has had, and will have, on human health. Arguing that nursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation and response efforts, this paper develops a framework for professional consideration and action. Four core components of the framework are common tactics, maximizing specialties, prioritizing places and public scholarship.

Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael D. McGinnis

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The social-ecological system (SES framework investigated in this special issue enables researchers from diverse disciplinary backgrounds working on different resource sectors in disparate geographic areas, biophysical conditions, and temporal domains to share a common vocabulary for the construction and testing of alternative theories and models that determine which influences on processes and outcomes are especially critical in specific empirical settings. We summarize changes that have been made to this framework and discuss a few remaining ambiguities in its formulation. Specifically, we offer a tentative rearrangement of the list of relevant attributes of governance systems and discuss other ways to make this framework applicable to policy settings beyond natural resource settings. The SES framework will continue to change as more researchers apply it to additional contexts; the main purpose of this article is to delineate the version that served as the basis for the theoretical innovations and empirical analyses detailed in other contributions to this special issue.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2016-01-01

Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

Modeling Nonlinear Change via Latent Change and Latent Acceleration Frameworks: Examining Velocity and Acceleration of Growth Trajectories

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Kevin; Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Mazzocco, Michele

2013-01-01

We propose the use of the latent change and latent acceleration frameworks for modeling nonlinear growth in structural equation models. Moving to these frameworks allows for the direct identification of "rates of change" and "acceleration" in latent growth curves--information available indirectly through traditional growth…

A prompt start: Implementing the framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chayes, A.; Skolnikoff, E.B.; Victor, D.G.

1992-01-01

A Framework Convention on Climate Change is under active negotiation in the United Nations with the expectation it will be ready for Signature at the Rio Conference this June. Under the most optimistic projections, a Convention will not come into force and be an effective instrument for months, probably years. In recognition of the several institutional tasks that will be of crucial importance whatever the detailed content of the Convention a small group of high international organizations involved in the negotiations was convened at the Rockefeller Foundation's Conference Center at Bellagio in January. The discussions at Bellagio on the need for a Prompt Start on these institutional tasks benefitted from earlier meetings at Harvard in March and at Bermuda in May, 1991, that the co-organizers convened to discuss these and related aspects of the negotiations on a Climate Convention. Those meetings were attended by members of the academic community, officials from the United Nations, and representatives of governments involved in the negotiations

Communicating Climate Change through ICT-Based Visualization: Towards an Analytical Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björn-Ola Linnér

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The difficulties in communicating climate change science to the general public are often highlighted as one of the hurdles for support of enhanced climate action. The advances of interactive visualization using information and communication technology (ICT are claimed to be a game-changer in our ability to communicate complex issues. However, new analytical frameworks are warranted to analyse the role of such technologies. This paper develops a novel framework for analyzing the content, form, context and relevance of ICT-based visualization of climate change, based on insights from literature on climate change communication. Thereafter, we exemplify the analytical framework by applying it to a pilot case of ICT-based climate visualization in a GeoDome. Possibilities to use affordable advanced ICT-based visualization devices in science and policy communication are rapidly expanding. We thus see wider implications and applications of the analytical framework not only for other ICT environments but also other issue areas in sustainability communication.

Introduction: Greening the countryside? Changing frameworks of EU agricultural policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Philip; Feindt, Peter H; Vihinen, Hilkka

2010-01-01

In response to wide-ranging criticism of agricultural policy, especially within Western industrialized countries, new frameworks of justification are emerging and new hybrid policy fields have been established to tackle some of the ‘externalities’ of agricultural support. However, institutional frameworks are proving slower to change, partly because this would require coordinated action across different levels of governance. Nevertheless, previously marginalized environmental concerns have successfully gained entrance to agricultural policy networks, while the intersection of trade liberalization and rural diversification have undermined the dominance of the productivist mindset in government. This gives rise to a plurality of policy actors and actions which defy the conventional categories of analysis of agricultural policy, calling for changing frameworks on the polity of agriculture too.

New framework for the new era the legislative change in the Japanese utility industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myoi, Hajime

1996-01-01

The on-going amendment activity to the legislative framework of the Japanese electric utility industry is discussed. A new strategy for the Japanese utility industry is necessary to meet the challenges in the future. Flexibility and mobility are becoming more important in order to overcome the problems ahead, and the new framework for the industry has to be harmonious with these characteristics. A bill to amend the Japanese Utility Industry Law, is under discussion in the Japanese Parliament. One aspect of the bill is the change in business regulation policy which is expected to increase competition in the industry. A new pricing policy, also a feature of the bill, will contribute to load leveling and an improvement of the load factor in Japanese power companies. (author)

National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalby, J.; Nielsen, L.S.; Lueg, Rainer

2014-01-01

Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498.......Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498....

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiabai, Aline; Quiroga, Sonia; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo; Higgins, Sahran; Taylor, Tim

2018-09-01

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Change Sequence: a framework for developing behavior change interventions for patients with long-term conditions

OpenAIRE

Elwyn, Glyn; Marrin, Katy; Frosch, Dominick; White, James

2014-01-01

Objective\\ud \\ud Interactive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare...

New insights into health financing: First results of the international data collection under the System of Health Accounts 2011 framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Michael; Morgan, David

2017-07-01

International comparisons of health spending and financing are most frequently carried out using datasets of international organisations based on the System of Health Accounts (SHA). This accounting framework has recently been updated and 2016 saw the first international data collection under the new SHA 2011 guidelines. In addition to reaching better comparability of health spending figures and greater country coverage, the updated framework has seen changes in the dimension of health financing leading to important consequences when analysing health financing data. This article presents the first results of health spending and financing data collected under this new framework and highlights the areas where SHA 2011 has become a more useful tool for policy analysis, by complementing data on expenditure of health financing schemes with information about their revenue streams. It describes the major conceptual changes in the scope of health financing and highlights why comprehensive analyses based on SHA 2011 can provide for a more complete description and comparison of health financing across countries, facilitate a more meaningful discussion of fiscal sustainability of health spending by also analysing the revenues of compulsory public schemes and help to clarify the role of governments in financing health care - which is generally much bigger than previously documented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-11-11

Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

2009-01-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer......Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources...... of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM......), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely...

Conceptual framework for research on global change 1992-1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-04-01

For a better overall understanding of the Earth system scientists have initiated extensive international research programs dealing with the dynamics of the Earth system. These activities are characterized by their interdisciplinary, border crossing, and system orientated approach. For a long time scientists from the Federal Republic of Germany participate significantly in the conception and completion of such programs. The more and more urgent questions from politics and from the public have prompted the Federal Government under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology to increase these efforts. In this the Federal Government will also be supported by the Scientific Advisory Committee appointed by it, which annually presents a report on the state of global changes and their consequences. In this brochure the Conceptual Framework for Research on Global Changes is presented, which was passed by the Federal Cabinet in April 1992. It is documenting the advanced state of research, which has already been achieved in this country. At the same time, however, it is made clear that significant further steps have to be taken to contribute to the solution of the most urgent problems of the world. (orig.)

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianjie Lei

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption in Cities by Utilizing Green Infrastructure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Davidson, Cliff I.; Jindal, Ranjina

infrastructure frameworks with indicators from green building rating systems (LEED 2009, BCA Green Mark 4.0, CASBEE, and TREES-NC 1.0). The climate change mitigation and adaptation framework addresses benefits from applying different GI technologies as well as limitations in existing rating systems and the green......Climate change has threatened global security of ecosystems, human health and natural resources. These threats have increased demand for various mitigation technology solutions as well as effective strategies for adapting to anticipated impacts. Green infrastructure (GI) technologies such as green...... roofs and urban forestry are viewed as ones of the best climate adaptation strategies in cities. This study aims to develop a framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) in cities by using green infrastructure technologies. The framework is established by integrating existing green...

The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Baek, J.

2012-12-01

Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

2014-01-01

The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

An Adaptive Sensor Mining Framework for Pervasive Computing Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Rashidi, Parisa; Cook, Diane J.

Analyzing sensor data in pervasive computing applications brings unique challenges to the KDD community. The challenge is heightened when the underlying data source is dynamic and the patterns change. We introduce a new adaptive mining framework that detects patterns in sensor data, and more importantly, adapts to the changes in the underlying model. In our framework, the frequent and periodic patterns of data are first discovered by the Frequent and Periodic Pattern Miner (FPPM) algorithm; and then any changes in the discovered patterns over the lifetime of the system are discovered by the Pattern Adaptation Miner (PAM) algorithm, in order to adapt to the changing environment. This framework also captures vital context information present in pervasive computing applications, such as the startup triggers and temporal information. In this paper, we present a description of our mining framework and validate the approach using data collected in the CASAS smart home testbed.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation

Human choice and climate change. Volume 1: The societal framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raynor, S.; Malone, E.

1998-01-01

This book is Volume 1 of a four-volume set which assesses social science research that is relevant to global climate change from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary perspective. Attention is focused on the societal framework as it relates to climate change. This series is indispensable reading for scientists and engineers wishing to make an effective contribution to the climate change policy debate

National Framework of Professional Standards for Change Leadership in Education

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Francis M.

2009-01-01

The ten professional standards form what Francis Duffy refers to as a "National Framework of Professional Standards for Change Leadership in Education." Each standard has examples of the knowledge, skills, and dispositions that the research suggests are important for effective change leadership. Duffy's hope is that this proposed…

Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

2017-12-01

The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

Finland`s second report under the framework convention on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-12-31

Finland is an industrialized country with extensive forest lands. Because of the structure of industry and the country`s geophysical conditions, large amounts of energy are consumed. In 1995, CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels and peat and from industry totalled 56 Tg, as compared to 54 Tg in 1990. Wood burning released another 21 Tg of CO{sub 2} in 1995, but this is not counted in total emissions because even more carbon was bound up in the growing stock in the forests. Methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions totalled 241 Gg in 1995, nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) 18 Gg, nitrogen oxides 259 Gg, carbon monoxide (CO) 434 Gg and volatile organic compounds from human activities (NMVOC) 182 Gg. Emissions other than carbon dioxide were jointly equivalent to some 25 Tg of CO{sub 2} in terms of their direct or indirect greenhouse effect. These estimates are consistent wish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The minor deviations from the guidelines have been presented in this report. Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate government departments, industry sectors, research institutions and other bodies. Wherever possible, these projections take into account the effect of current and planned policies and measures aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. The main focus in Finland`s climate strategy is to intensify those programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are already under way, such as efficiency improvements in the energy production and utilization system, and use of energy and carbon taxes. As well as limiting emissions of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases, the Finnish action programme also includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. In its energy report to Parliament in autumn 1993, the Government adopted the goals of stopping increases in CO{sub 2} emissions from

Finland`s second report under the framework convention on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

Finland is an industrialized country with extensive forest lands. Because of the structure of industry and the country`s geophysical conditions, large amounts of energy are consumed. In 1995, CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels and peat and from industry totalled 56 Tg, as compared to 54 Tg in 1990. Wood burning released another 21 Tg of CO{sub 2} in 1995, but this is not counted in total emissions because even more carbon was bound up in the growing stock in the forests. Methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions totalled 241 Gg in 1995, nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) 18 Gg, nitrogen oxides 259 Gg, carbon monoxide (CO) 434 Gg and volatile organic compounds from human activities (NMVOC) 182 Gg. Emissions other than carbon dioxide were jointly equivalent to some 25 Tg of CO{sub 2} in terms of their direct or indirect greenhouse effect. These estimates are consistent wish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The minor deviations from the guidelines have been presented in this report. Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate government departments, industry sectors, research institutions and other bodies. Wherever possible, these projections take into account the effect of current and planned policies and measures aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. The main focus in Finland`s climate strategy is to intensify those programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are already under way, such as efficiency improvements in the energy production and utilization system, and use of energy and carbon taxes. As well as limiting emissions of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases, the Finnish action programme also includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. In its energy report to Parliament in autumn 1993, the Government adopted the goals of stopping increases in CO{sub 2} emissions from

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breukers, M.L.H.

2010-01-01

This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

The influence of changing framework conditions on tourism: The case of the Russian Federation

OpenAIRE

Kochurova, Elena; Keller, Peter

2017-01-01

This conceptual bachelor thesis is an attempt to approach the important question of the impact of the framework conditions on the growth and the development of tourism of a given country. In a first step the relevant political and economic framework conditions for tourism are defined. In a second step, the main forms of systemic, cyclic, structural and stochastic of changes of these framework conditions are analyzed. In a third step, a model presenting the probable impacts of changes of ...

Canada's national report on actions to meet commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

Current actions by Canadian governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, and the private sector to meet domestic and international climate change commitments are reviewed. The possible impacts of climate change on Canada are discussed and Canadian greenhouse gas emissions are assessed in terms of factors such as climate, geography, land use, economic structure, and energy production and consumption. Canada's draft National Action Strategy on Global Warming provides a framework for actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Measures already taken include those aimed at increasing energy efficiency and energy conservation or encouraging a switch to less carbon-intensive energy sources. Other measures include information and education initiatives, regulation, research and development, and economic instruments. Actions have already been taken in the transportation, electricity generation, residential/commercial, resource/manufacturing industry, and waste management sectors. Canada is also involved in international studies and agreements to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. Four tools are used to assess progress in limiting emissions: emission inventories, climate change indicators, an emissions outlook, and case studies. The emissions outlook presented shows that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will increase 10.6% from 1990 to 2000, reaching the equivalent of 538.2 megatonnes of CO 2 . A case study shows that current and planned measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions associated with space heating requirements in new single-family homes will reduce emissions in this area 18% from what they would otherwise be in the year 2000. 58 refs., 44 figs., 21 tabs

The deep ocean under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

2015-11-01

The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework; Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Credibility?

OpenAIRE

Takatoshi Ito; Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

1997-01-01

In recent years the Bank of Canada has made important changes in the way it conducts monetary policy. In particular, the bank has adopted explicit inflation targets and introduced significant changes to its operational framework designed to increase transparency and reduce market uncertainty. This paper examines the key issues associated with the recent changes in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework and analyzes various indicators of central bank credibility.

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Mazmanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

A Scientific Decision Framework for Supplier Selection under Interval Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Krishankumar

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new scientific decision framework (SDF under interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF environment for supplier selection (SS. The framework consists of two phases, where, in the first phase, criteria weights are estimated in a sensible manner using newly proposed IVIF based statistical variance (SV method and, in the second phase, the suitable supplier is selected using ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing REality ranking method under IVIF environment. This method involves three categories of outranking, namely, strong, moderate, and weak. Previous studies on ELECTRE ranking reveal that scholars have only used two categories of outranking, namely, strong and weak, in the formulation of IVIF based ELECTRE, which eventually aggravates fuzziness and vagueness in decision making process due to the potential loss of information. Motivated by this challenge, third outranking category, called moderate, is proposed, which considerably reduces the loss of information by improving checks to the concordance and discordance matrices. Thus, in this paper, IVIF-ELECTRE (IVIFE method is presented and popular TOPSIS method is integrated with IVIFE for obtaining a linear ranking. Finally, the practicality of the proposed framework is demonstrated using SS example and the strength of proposed SDF is realized by comparing the framework with other similar methods.

Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew D. Quinn

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Extreme weather damages and disrupts transport infrastructure in a multitude of ways. Heavy rainfall and ensuing landslides or flooding may lead to road or rail closures; extreme heat can damage road surfaces, or cause tracks, signalling or electronic equipment to overheat, or thermal discomfort for passengers. As extreme weather is expected to occur more frequently in the future, transport infrastructure owners and operators must increase their preparedness in order to reduce weather-related service disruption and the associated financial costs. This article presents a two-sided framework for use by any organisation to develop climate-change-ready transport infrastructure, regardless of their current level of knowledge or preparedness for climate change. The framework is composed of an adaptation strategy and an implementation plan, and has the overarching ambition to embed climate change adaptation within organisational procedures so it becomes a normal function of business. It advocates adaptation pathways, i.e., sequential adaptive actions that do not compromise future actions. The circular, iterative structure ensures new knowledge, or socio-economic changes may be incorporated, and that previous adaptations are evaluated. Moreover, the framework aligns with existing asset management procedures (e.g., ISO standards or governmental or organisational approaches to climate change adaptation. By adopting this framework, organisations can self-identify their own level of adaptation readiness and seek to enhance it.

A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iago Lowe Hale

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use. The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture.

A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

2015-12-06

Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

Project Management Framework to Organizational Transitions

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnour, Tim; Barton, Saul

1996-01-01

This paper describes a project management framework and associated models for organizational transitions. The framework contains an integrated set of steps an organization can take to lead an organizational transition such as downsizing and change in mission or role. The framework is designed to help an organization do the right work the right way with the right people at the right time. The underlying rationale for the steps in the framework is based on a set of findings which include: defining a transition as containing both near-term and long-term actions, designing actions which respond to drivers and achieve desired results, aligning the organization with the external environment, and aligning the internal components of the organization. The framework was developed based on best practices found in the literature, lessons learned from heads of organizations who have completed large-scale organizational changes, and concerns from employees at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The framework is described using KSC.

The deep ocean under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

2015-11-13

The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Capacity planning of link restorable optical networks under dynamic change of traffic

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

2005-11-01

Future backbone networks shall require full-survivability and support dynamic changes of traffic demands. The Generalized Survivable Networks (GSN) was proposed to meet these challenges. GSN is fully-survivable under dynamic traffic demand changes, so it offers a practical and guaranteed characterization framework for ASTN / ASON survivable network planning and bandwidth-on-demand resource allocation 4. The basic idea of GSN is to incorporate the non-blocking network concept into the survivable network models. In GSN, each network node must specify its I/O capacity bound which is taken as constraints for any allowable traffic demand matrix. In this paper, we consider the following generic GSN network design problem: Given the I/O bounds of each network node, find a routing scheme (and the corresponding rerouting scheme under failure) and the link capacity assignment (both working and spare) which minimize the cost, such that any traffic matrix consistent with the given I/O bounds can be feasibly routed and it is single-fault tolerant under the link restoration scheme. We first show how the initial, infeasible formal mixed integer programming formulation can be transformed into a more feasible problem using the duality transformation of the linear program. Then we show how the problem can be simplified using the Lagrangian Relaxation approach. Previous work has outlined a two-phase approach for solving this problem where the first phase optimizes the working capacity assignment and the second phase optimizes the spare capacity assignment. In this paper, we present a jointly optimized framework for dimensioning the survivable optical network with the GSN model. Experiment results show that the jointly optimized GSN can bring about on average of 3.8% cost savings when compared with the separate, two-phase approach. Finally, we perform a cost comparison and show that GSN can be deployed with a reasonable cost.

Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

2013-01-01

coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem......This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all...... and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes....

A Behavior Change Framework of Health Socialization and Identity

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, Christopher T.; Stanley, Lauren H. K.

2017-01-01

An individual's identity related to health is critically important in terms of the adoption and maintenance of health behaviors, and guides approaches to health change across the lifespan. This article presents a review of the literature and proposes a health socialization and health identity framework, which may be used to clarify challenges in…

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hartin, C.

2016-02-01

Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, J. S.

2011-12-01

The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

An organizational framework and strategic implementation for system-level change to enhance research-based practice: QUERI Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mittman Brian S

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The continuing gap between available evidence and current practice in health care reinforces the need for more effective solutions, in particular related to organizational context. Considerable advances have been made within the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VA in systematically implementing evidence into practice. These advances have been achieved through a system-level program focused on collaboration and partnerships among policy makers, clinicians, and researchers. The Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI was created to generate research-driven initiatives that directly enhance health care quality within the VA and, simultaneously, contribute to the field of implementation science. This paradigm-shifting effort provided a natural laboratory for exploring organizational change processes. This article describes the underlying change framework and implementation strategy used to operationalize QUERI. Strategic approach to organizational change QUERI used an evidence-based organizational framework focused on three contextual elements: 1 cultural norms and values, in this case related to the role of health services researchers in evidence-based quality improvement; 2 capacity, in this case among researchers and key partners to engage in implementation research; 3 and supportive infrastructures to reinforce expectations for change and to sustain new behaviors as part of the norm. As part of a QUERI Series in Implementation Science, this article describes the framework's application in an innovative integration of health services research, policy, and clinical care delivery. Conclusion QUERI's experience and success provide a case study in organizational change. It demonstrates that progress requires a strategic, systems-based effort. QUERI's evidence-based initiative involved a deliberate cultural shift, requiring ongoing commitment in multiple forms and at multiple levels. VA's commitment to QUERI came in the

Strategic Environmental Assessment Framework for Landscape-Based, Temporal Analysis of Wetland Change in Urban Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Sizo, Anton; Noble, Bram F; Bell, Scott

2016-03-01

This paper presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the context of change analysis for urban wetland environments. The proposed framework is focused on two key stages of the SEA process: scoping and environmental baseline assessment. These stages are arguably the most information-intense phases of SEA and have a significant effect on the quality of the SEA results. The study aims to meet the needs for proactive frameworks to assess and protect wetland habitat and services more efficiently, toward the goal of advancing more intelligent urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting geographic information system and remote sensing tools and applications, supports the temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The framework was applied to a rapidly developing urban environment in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, analyzing wetland change and land-use pressures from 1985 to 2011. The SEA spatial scale was rescaled from administrative urban planning units to an ecologically meaningful area. Landscape change assessed was based on a suite of indicators that were subsequently rolled up into a single, multi-dimensional, and easy to understand and communicate index to examine the implications of land-use change for wetland sustainability. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land-use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Mechanisms of microstructural changes of fuel under irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, P.; Carlot, G.; Dorado, B.; Maillard, S.; Sabathier, C.; Martin, G.; Oh, J.Y.; Welland, M.J.

2015-01-01

Nuclear fuels are subjected to high levels of radiation damage mainly due to the slowing of fission fragments, which results in substantial modifications of the initial fuel microstructure. Microstructure changes alter practically all engineering fuel properties such as atomic transport or thermomechanical properties so understanding these changes is essential to predicting the performance of fuel elements. Also, with increasing burn-up, the fuel drifts away from its initial composition as the fission process produces new chemical elements. Because nuclear fuels operate at high temperature and usually under high-temperature gradients, damage annealing, foreign atom or defect clustering and migration occur on multiple time and length scales, which make long-term predictions difficult. The end result is a fuel microstructure which may show extensive differences on the scale of a single fuel pellet. The main challenge we are faced with is, therefore, to identify the phenomena occurring on the atom scale that are liable to have macroscopic effects that will determine the microstructure changes and ultimately the life-span of a fuel element. One step towards meeting this challenge is to develop and apply experimental or modelling methods capable of connecting events that occur over very short length and timescales to changes in the fuel microstructure over engineering length and timescales. In the first part of this chapter, we provide an overview of some of the more important microstructure modifications observed in nuclear fuels. The emphasis is placed on oxide fuels because of the extensive amount of data available in relation to these materials under neutron or ion irradiation. When possible and relevant, the specifics of other types of fuels such as metallic or carbide fuels are alluded to. Throughout this chapter but more specifically in the latter part, we attempt to give examples of how modelling and experimentation at various scales can provide us with

Changing pattern in the basal ganglia: motor switching under reduced dopaminergic drive

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, Vincenzo G.; Rigoli, Francesco; Stenner, Max-Philipp; Zaehle, Tino; Hirth, Frank; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Dolan, Raymond J.

2016-01-01

Action selection in the basal ganglia is often described within the framework of a standard model, associating low dopaminergic drive with motor suppression. Whilst powerful, this model does not explain several clinical and experimental data, including varying therapeutic efficacy across movement disorders. We tested the predictions of this model in patients with Parkinson’s disease, on and off subthalamic deep brain stimulation (DBS), focussing on adaptive sensory-motor responses to a changing environment and maintenance of an action until it is no longer suitable. Surprisingly, we observed prolonged perseverance under on-stimulation, and high inter-individual variability in terms of the motor selections performed when comparing the two conditions. To account for these data, we revised the standard model exploring its space of parameters and associated motor functions and found that, depending on effective connectivity between external and internal parts of the globus pallidus and saliency of the sensory input, a low dopaminergic drive can result in increased, dysfunctional, motor switching, besides motor suppression. This new framework provides insight into the biophysical mechanisms underlying DBS, allowing a description in terms of alteration of the signal-to-baseline ratio in the indirect pathway, which better account of known electrophysiological data in comparison with the standard model. PMID:27004463

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-03-16

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicola Banwell

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

78 FR 27953 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-13

... terminate authority for Sites 20-22 if no foreign-status merchandise is admitted for a bona fide customs... Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania Pursuant to its authority under the... application to the Board (FTZ Docket B-79-2012, docketed 11-1-2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF...

A FRAMEWORK OF CHANGE DETECTION BASED ON COMBINED MORPHOLOGICA FEATURES AND MULTI-INDEX CLASSIFICATION

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S. Li

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing images are particularly well suited for analysis of land cover change. In this paper, we present a new framework for detection of changing land cover using satellite imagery. Morphological features and a multi-index are used to extract typical objects from the imagery, including vegetation, water, bare land, buildings, and roads. Our method, based on connected domains, is different from traditional methods; it uses image segmentation to extract morphological features, while the enhanced vegetation index (EVI, the differential water index (NDWI are used to extract vegetation and water, and a fragmentation index is used to the correct extraction results of water. HSV transformation and threshold segmentation extract and remove the effects of shadows on extraction results. Change detection is performed on these results. One of the advantages of the proposed framework is that semantic information is extracted automatically using low-level morphological features and indexes. Another advantage is that the proposed method detects specific types of change without any training samples. A test on ZY-3 images demonstrates that our framework has a promising capability to detect change.

a Framework of Change Detection Based on Combined Morphologica Features and Multi-Index Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Li, S.; Zhang, S.; Yang, D.

2017-09-01

Remote sensing images are particularly well suited for analysis of land cover change. In this paper, we present a new framework for detection of changing land cover using satellite imagery. Morphological features and a multi-index are used to extract typical objects from the imagery, including vegetation, water, bare land, buildings, and roads. Our method, based on connected domains, is different from traditional methods; it uses image segmentation to extract morphological features, while the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the differential water index (NDWI) are used to extract vegetation and water, and a fragmentation index is used to the correct extraction results of water. HSV transformation and threshold segmentation extract and remove the effects of shadows on extraction results. Change detection is performed on these results. One of the advantages of the proposed framework is that semantic information is extracted automatically using low-level morphological features and indexes. Another advantage is that the proposed method detects specific types of change without any training samples. A test on ZY-3 images demonstrates that our framework has a promising capability to detect change.

Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

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Jong Seok Lee

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

Policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. The case of the Gulf of Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Jacob, J.S.; Ramos Bustillos, L.E.; Ortiz, I.

2007-05-01

This paper is the third in a series of AIXG (Annex I Expert Group on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)) papers that analyse the roles that national policy frameworks of various sectors play in adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is unlikely to be a standalone process. It occurs within the existing sectoral and cross-sectoral policy frameworks, including legal provisions, institutional structures, policies and management practices, and is supported by the available information tools. The previous two papers focused on the water sector. The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse policy frameworks that are important for facilitating adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal zones. The paper is based on the analysis of the Gulf of Mexico. Two countries, the US and Mexico, are examined, with a focus on two aspects of coastal zones: wetlands and built environment. Next to these two sectors attention is paid to four components that construct policy frameworks, namely legal framework, institutional landscape, policies and management tools, and information. Following a brief introduction of the Gulf of Mexico region, its physical and economic characteristics, the paper takes a look at current climatic conditions and trends in the Gulf region and expected climate change impacts and the key vulnerabilities of the region to these changes (Section 2). The rational for the scope and focus of the sectoral analysis presented in this paper can also be found in Section 2. Section 3 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern wetlands in the US and Mexico and their links with adaptation. Section 4 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern the development of human settlements, and adaptation to climate change. Sections 3 and 4 follow a structure similar to the one that was used for the two previous papers on policy frameworks for adaptation in the water sector. Both sections examine

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the

The role of accounting practices in a radical change process : towards a comprehensive change framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meer-Kooistra, Jeltje van der

2001-01-01

This paper is concerned with investigating the role of accounting practices in radical change processes. The institutional framework has been taken as a starting point in investigating these processes. The research has been carried out at the Dutch Railways. This company was forced by the Dutch

Cellulolytic potential under environmental changes in microbial communities from grassland litter

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Renaud eBerlemont

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In many ecosystems, global changes are likely to profoundly affect microorganisms. In Southern California, changes in precipitation and nitrogen deposition may influence the composition and functional potential of microbial communities and their resulting ability to degrade plant material. To test whether environmental changes impact the distribution of functional groups involved in leaf litter degradation, we determined how the genomic diversity of microbial communities in a semi-arid grassland ecosystem changed under reduced precipitation or increased N deposition. We monitored communities seasonally over a period of two years to place environmental change responses into the context of natural variation. Fungal and bacterial communities displayed strong seasonal patterns, Fungi being mostly detected during the dry season whereas Bacteria were common during wet periods. Most putative cellulose degraders were associated with 33 bacterial genera and constituted ~18.2% of the microbial community. Precipitation reduction reduced bacterial abundance and cellulolytic potential whereas nitrogen addition did not affect the cellulolytic potential of the microbial community. Finally, we detected a strong correlation between the frequencies of genera putative cellulose degraders and cellulase genes. Thus, microbial taxonomic composition was predictive of cellulolytic potential. This work provides a framework for how environmental changes affect microorganisms responsible for plant litter deconstruction.

The European Framework Programme under way

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1 January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 B-Euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding of frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 December...

The European Framework Programme under way

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1st January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 billion euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 Decem...

Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, Miquel

2009-07-01

Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Ad Hoc process to strengthen the framework convention on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramakrishna, K.; Deutz, A.M.; Jacobsen, L.A. [eds.

1995-11-01

The Woods Hole Research Center convened an International Conference on The Ad Hoc Process to Strengthen the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Woods Hole, MA, on October 7-9, 1995. The conference was conducted to examine the prospects for successful adoption of a protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change by 1997. In preparation for the Second session of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate, several governmental and nongovernmental representatives met in Woods Hole to discuss the process and possible outcome of the Berlin Mandate negotiations for a protocol or other legal instrument to strengthen the Convention. The conference was by invitation and all participants attended in their personal capacities.

76 FR 4865 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-27

... Commission, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 104, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 51-2010... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1736] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign...

Domestic policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Part 1. Annex 1 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Adams, H.

2006-05-01

Adaptation to climate change needs to be integrated into policy development. This paper examines domestic policy frameworks in the water sector and analyses how adaptation could be incorporated into these frameworks. Global climate change will have a significant impact on water resources in all countries. Consequently, a key challenge that countries face is how to govern and manage their water resources in the conditions of changing climate. What should be done, when and by whom, is a function of the rate of climate change, but also of the existing water policy frameworks of each country. This study examines current water policy frameworks in four countries (Canada, Finland, United Kingdom and United States). It reviews the existing legal frameworks, institutional arrangements, key players and water planning mechanisms. One objective was to determine to what extent adaptation to climate change is beginning to be incorporated into water policy frameworks and whether there are some lessons that can be drawn from current experiences. The study concludes that a certain degree of adjustment to climate variability and extreme weather events is inherent to the water sector. However, adaptation to long-term climate change is generally not a significant factor in the management of water resources in the four countries, although some initiatives are being undertaken in several countries to build climate change into decision making. All four countries have water policy frameworks, which to different extents, can help them adapt to climate change. These water policy frameworks, which differ in each country, can be enhanced to promote adaptation to climate change. They generally include the following elements: A system of laws (legal frameworks) that stipulate rights and responsibilities of different levels of government and private entities. These may include, for example, a system of water rights and abstraction permits; A variety of national, regional and sub

A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher W Woodall

Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

Diagnosing Management of Agricultural Research and Technology Development under the Agricultural Innovation Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying and analyzing issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework. The survey consisted of two groups: agricultural researchers of Agriculture-Research and Education Organization and all faculty members of public agricultural faculties of Ministry of Scientific, Research and Technology. Using Cochran sampling formula and multi-stage sampling method, 188 researchers and 205 faculty members were selected in order to fill in the survey questionnaire. Using the SPSS, collected data analyzed based on explanatory factor analysis. Totally, factor analysis of three sets of issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework led to extract 13 factors, including agricultural structure and policy, infrastructure and resources of agricultural development, supportive services for agricultural development (level of agricultural development, investment and capacity building in research and technology, management of research and technology development, research and technology productivity, research culture, networks for research and technology development (level of national innovation system, agricultural research policy, impacts and effectiveness of agricultural research and technology development, integrated management of research and technology, institutional development for agricultural research and technology and systematic synergy of agricultural research and higher education (level of agricultural innovation system. Totally, these three sets of factors explained 64%, 75% and 73% of the total variances. Finally, using conceptual clustering for the extracted factors, a conceptual model of issues and challenges of agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework was presented.

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

76 FR 28213 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1758] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... Foreign-Trade Zone 51, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 58-2010, filed 10/1/2010, amended...

77 FR 44582 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 183 Under Alternative Site Framework; Austin, TX

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-30

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1843] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 183 Under Alternative Site Framework; Austin, TX Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... Austin Customs and Border Protection port of entry, and FTZ 183's existing Sites 1 through 24 would be...

A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

Science.gov (United States)

Capel, Paul D.; Wolock, David M.; Coupe, Richard H.; Roth, Jason L.

2018-01-10

Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity.The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables

75 FR 29727 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 37 Under Alternative Site Framework Orange County, NY

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-27

... Zone 37 Under Alternative Site Framework Orange County, NY Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, Orange County, New York, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 37... under the ASF with a service area of Orange County, New York, adjacent to the New York/Newark Customs...

78 FR 27364 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-10

... Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida Pursuant to its authority under the...-48-2012, docketed 6/27/2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF with a service area comprised... Everglades Customs and Border Protection port of entry, to modify Site 1 by removing acreage, to expand Sites...

The shift of energy regulatory powers under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grimm, N. S.

2011-01-01

The paper examines the powers of Member States' national regulatory authorities under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive 2003/54/EC (OJEU L 176/37) and analyses the implications of framework of Directive 2009/72/EC on the national laws of the Member States, in particular on the Austrian and German constitutional, administrative and energy laws. The Introductory Part gives a historical overview of the development of national energy regulators under European energy legislation. This Part shows that the national regulatory authorities attract increased attention and that their regulatory powers are on a constant rise. In order to understand the huge impact of the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC on the regulatory regimes of the Member States, this Part briefly examines the former and current powers of the national energy regulators under Austrian and German law. Part Two analyses whether the powers conferred upon national energy regulators under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC have been enhanced in comparison to those established under the framework of Directive 2003/54/EC. The main focus lies thereby on the propositions made by the European Commission in its Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/54/EC concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity (COM (2007) 528 final, 2.1) and laid down in Directive 2009/72/EC. Part Two comes to the conclusion that the powers of the national energy regulators under the framework of Directive 2009/72/EC have indeed been enhanced in comparison to former regime of Directive 2003/54/EC. Part Three demonstrates that the enhancement of national energy regulators' powers does not benefit the Member States. On the contrary, they lose considerable powers of control over their own national energy regulators. While

Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eliseev, A V; Bezmenov, K V; Demchenko, P F; Mokhov, I I; Petoukhov, V K [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1996-12-31

The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1995-12-31

The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Built environment change: a framework to support health-enhancing behaviour through environmental policy and health research.

Science.gov (United States)

Berke, Ethan M; Vernez-Moudon, Anne

2014-06-01

As research examining the effect of the built environment on health accelerates, it is critical for health and planning researchers to conduct studies and make recommendations in the context of a robust theoretical framework. We propose a framework for built environment change (BEC) related to improving health. BEC consists of elements of the built environment, how people are exposed to and interact with them perceptually and functionally, and how this exposure may affect health-related behaviours. Integrated into this framework are the legal and regulatory mechanisms and instruments that are commonly used to effect change in the built environment. This framework would be applicable to medical research as well as to issues of policy and community planning.

Lateral Attitude Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Tina; Dickel, Nina; Liersch, Benjamin; Rees, Jonas; Süssenbach, Philipp; Bohner, Gerd

2015-08-01

The authors propose a framework distinguishing two types of lateral attitude change (LAC): (a) generalization effects, where attitude change toward a focal object transfers to related objects, and (b) displacement effects, where only related attitudes change but the focal attitude does not change. They bring together examples of LAC from various domains of research, outline the conditions and underlying processes of each type of LAC, and develop a theoretical framework that enables researchers to study LAC more systematically in the future. Compared with established theories of attitude change, the LAC framework focuses on lateral instead of focal attitude change and encompasses both generalization and displacement. Novel predictions and designs for studying LAC are presented. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Interoperable cross-domain semantic and geospatial framework for automatic change detection

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Chiao-Ling; Hong, Jung-Hong

2016-01-01

With the increasingly diverse types of geospatial data established over the last few decades, semantic interoperability in integrated applications has attracted much interest in the field of Geographic Information System (GIS). This paper proposes a new strategy and framework to process cross-domain geodata at the semantic level. This framework leverages the semantic equivalence of concepts between domains through bridge ontology and facilitates the integrated use of different domain data, which has been long considered as an essential superiority of GIS, but is impeded by the lack of understanding about the semantics implicitly hidden in the data. We choose the task of change detection to demonstrate how the introduction of ontology concept can effectively make the integration possible. We analyze the common properties of geodata and change detection factors, then construct rules and summarize possible change scenario for making final decisions. The use of topographic map data to detect changes in land use shows promising success, as far as the improvement of efficiency and level of automation is concerned. We believe the ontology-oriented approach will enable a new way for data integration across different domains from the perspective of semantic interoperability, and even open a new dimensionality for the future GIS.

Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V; Levermann, Anders

2014-01-01

The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions. (letter)

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

Implementing change in primary care practices using electronic medical records: a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Lynne S; Feifer, Chris; Stuart, Gail W; Ornstein, Steven M

2008-01-16

Implementing change in primary care is difficult, and little practical guidance is available to assist small primary care practices. Methods to structure care and develop new roles are often needed to implement an evidence-based practice that improves care. This study explored the process of change used to implement clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care practices that used a common electronic medical record (EMR). Multiple conceptual frameworks informed the design of this study designed to explain the complex phenomena of implementing change in primary care practice. Qualitative methods were used to examine the processes of change that practice members used to implement the guidelines. Purposive sampling in eight primary care practices within the Practice Partner Research Network-Translating Researching into Practice (PPRNet-TRIP II) clinical trial yielded 28 staff members and clinicians who were interviewed regarding how change in practice occurred while implementing clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and strokes. A conceptual framework for implementing clinical guidelines into primary care practice was developed through this research. Seven concepts and their relationships were modelled within this framework: leaders setting a vision with clear goals for staff to embrace; involving the team to enable the goals and vision for the practice to be achieved; enhancing communication systems to reinforce goals for patient care; developing the team to enable the staff to contribute toward practice improvement; taking small steps, encouraging practices' tests of small changes in practice; assimilating the electronic medical record to maximize clinical effectiveness, enhancing practices' use of the electronic tool they have invested in for patient care improvement; and providing feedback within a culture of improvement, leading to an iterative cycle of goal setting

A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

2013-04-01

Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

Review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hasle, Peter; Jørgensen, Claus

2003-01-01

A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation.......A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation....

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

2015-06-01

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

Sweden's third national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Sweden's national communication to the UN Convention on Climate Change describes everything about the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases, the motives and forces behind emissions, and official Swedish climate policies. Every five years, Sweden submits a communication on practical climate efforts in Sweden to the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Swedish Environmental Protection Board has coordinated the work of producing the basic documentation for the communication, which also describes the measures already taken and those planned for the future. In addition, scenarios have been adopted for developments in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden's vulnerability and Swedish research into the climate and climate change

A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

Science.gov (United States)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2018-01-01

In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

75 FR 28568 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 2, under Alternative Site Framework, New Orleans, Louisiana...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-21

... Zone 2, under Alternative Site Framework, New Orleans, Louisiana, Area Pursuant to its authority under... St. Bernard Parishes, Louisiana, adjacent to the New Orleans Customs and Border Protection port of... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Board of Commissioners of the Port of New...

interThermalPhaseChangeFoam—A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahdi Nabil

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The volume-of-fluid (VOF approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam, which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A. By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

interThermalPhaseChangeFoam-A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

Science.gov (United States)

Nabil, Mahdi; Rattner, Alexander S.

The volume-of-fluid (VOF) approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam), which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A). By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

76 FR 771 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 14 Under Alternative Site Framework; Little Rock, AR

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-06

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1729] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 14 Under Alternative Site Framework; Little Rock, AR Pursuant to its authority under... the Little Rock Customs and Border [[Page 772

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

Science.gov (United States)

Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

2011-01-01

The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

Applying & Publishing GRI framework in Transport Companies Rethink. Redesign. Rebuild. CSR Reporting and Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilian Soares Outtes Wanderley

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Corporations with systematic relationships to tourism are developing activities and publishing CSR reports applying the GRI framework (GRI, 2009. The contribution of tourism to climate change is estimated at between 5% and 12% and by 2050 the amount spent on the tourism sector will consume the entire carbon budget required to avoid dangerous climate change (Scott et al. 2009, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008. This study defines the TC-8 group, a group of transport in tourism related companies, in order to answer the main questions:To what extent is climate change addressed in the CSR reports of transport companies? Climate change is mentioned and receives attention in all of the company reports analysed, however,overall the transport sector shows that in comparison to the GRI/KPMG (2007 survey, it under-performs. Are the companies just reporting direct emissions from production or also broader emissions from the use of the products? Half of these companies report emissions; some include direct and indirect emissions. Further actions can be mentioned such as, companies participating in forums discussing solutions to climate change, assuming shared responsibilities and employing measures such as reducing energy consumption by runningtheir own photovoltaic power unit or planning for a CO2 neutral operation by 2012.

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E.

2017-01-01

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli Pekka

2015-01-01

= 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects......Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate...... change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation...

76 FR 38357 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 102, Under Alternative Site Framework; St. Louis, MO

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-30

... Zone 102, Under Alternative Site Framework; St. Louis, MO Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign.../2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the St... the City of St. Louis and St. Louis County, Missouri, within and adjacent to the St. Louis Customs and...

National inventory report for France under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol - CCNUCC, March 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Jean-Pierre; Fontelle, Jean-Pierre; Nicco, Laetitia; Andre, Jean-Marc; Deflorenne, Emmanuel; Druart, Ariane; Gueguen, Celine; Jabot, Julien; Jacquier, Guillaume; Joya, Romain; Martinet, Yann; Mathias, Etienne; Prouteau, Emilie; Serveau, Laetitia; Vincent, Julien; Allemand, Nadine; Bastide, Aurelie; Gavel, Antoine; Kessouar, Sabrina; Tuddenham, Mark; Millard, Frederique; MArtineaud, Helene; MILLION, Aurelien; Nikov, Dimitar; Guittet, Olivier

2011-03-01

This national inventory report supplies emission data for France within the period 1990-2009, concerning all the substances that contribute to enhancing the greenhouse effect, required under: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the second year of commitment to the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). The substances covered are the direct greenhouse gases comprising the Kyoto Protocol 'basket of six': carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the two species of halogenous substances, hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), have also to be reported by the Parties under the Convention. For the period 1990-2008 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9), as defined by the UNFCCC. Several changes have been added to take into account the remarks of the reviews of UNFCCC. Although significant continuous progress has been achieved in terms of the sources covered and the quality of estimates, considerable uncertainties remain concerning emissions. These should be borne in mind when using the data in this report. A table indicating uncertainties based on current knowledge has been included in the report. Future reviews of these data are always possible, if not probable, to take into account both changes in methodology and work underway at international level with a view to improving knowledge and rules on compiling and presenting emissions. To answer specifically to the Kyoto Protocol's requirements, this report also includes the requirements supplementary information required under Article 7, paragraph 1, and Article 3, paragraph 14 of the

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

2012-07-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

A simulation framework for asset management in climate-change adaptation of transportation infrastructure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bhamidipati, S.K.

2014-01-01

An asset management framework, in an agent-based model with multiple assets, is presented as a tool that can assist in developing long-term climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure.

European Research Framework Programme. Research on Climate Change. Prepared for the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3) and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-15)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This publication gathers the abstracts of European research projects on climate change and related to climate change which have been completed recently or are ongoing under the sixth and seventh framework programmes for research. This document aims at providing a relevant overview of research activities on climate change funded by the European Community to participants to the third World Climate Conference held in Geneva in August 2009 and to the UNFCCC 15th Conference of the Parties meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

A conceptual connectivity framework for understanding geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pöppl, Ronald; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry

2017-04-01

Human-induced landscape change is difficult to predict due to the complexity inherent in both geomorphic and social systems as well as due to emerging coupling relationships between them. To better understand system complexity and system response to change, connectivity has become an important research paradigm within various disciplines including geomorphology, hydrology and ecology. With the proposed conceptual connectivity framework on geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems a cautionary note is flagged regarding the need (i) to include and to systematically conceptualise the role of different types of human agency in altering connectivity relationships in geomorphic systems and (ii) to integrate notions of human-environment interactions to connectivity concepts in geomorphology to better explain causes and trajectories of landscape change. Underpinned by case study examples, the presented conceptual framework is able to explain how geomorphic response of fluvial systems to human disturbance is determined by system-specific boundary conditions (incl. system history, related legacy effects and lag times), vegetation dynamics and human-induced functional relationships (i.e. feedback mechanisms) between the different spatial dimensions of connectivity. It is further demonstrated how changes in social systems can trigger a process-response feedback loop between social and geomorphic systems that further governs the trajectory of landscape change in coupled human-geomorphic systems.

Transports and climate change: framework for public action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bureau, D.

2008-01-01

The author proposes an analysis of instruments to be implemented within the frame of a 'transports and climate change' sector-based plan. This analysis is based on a modelling of this sector, and includes some of the instruments proposed in the Stern report. After a presentation of this analysis framework, the author comments the issue of articulating technological policies and those aiming at the modification of behaviours through the setting of an appropriate price-signal. This aspect is further studied by taking a pre-existing substantial fuel taxing into account. Then the issue of articulation with transport policy is examined for the assessment of infrastructures which would be alternative to roads

Quantitative Resilience Assessment under a Tri-Stage Framework for Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of natural disasters and malicious attacks has exerted unprecedented disturbances on power systems, accounting for the extensive attention paid to power system resilience. Combined with the evolving nature of general disasters, this paper proposes resilience assessment approaches for power systems under a tri-stage framework. The pre-disaster toughness is proposed to quantify the robustness of power systems against potential disasters, where the thinking of area division and partitioned multi-objective risk method (PMRM is introduced. In the case of information deficiency caused by disasters, the during-disaster resistance to disturbance is calculated to reflect the real-time system running state by state estimation (SE. The post-disaster restoration ability consists of response ability, restoration efficiency and restoration economy, which is evaluated by Sequential Monte-Carlo Simulation to simulate the system restoration process. Further, a synthetic metric system is presented to quantify the resilience performance of power systems from the above three aspects. The proposed approaches and framework are validated on the IEEE RTS 79 system, and helpful conclusions are drawn from extensive case studies.

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

2012-01-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research

OpenAIRE

Cane, James E.; O'Connor, Denise; Michie, Susan

2012-01-01

Abstract Background An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. Methods Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. Results The...

The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

2017-12-01

How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Science.gov (United States)

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-03-01

The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

Applying psychological frameworks of behaviour change to improve healthcare worker hand hygiene: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Srigley, J A; Corace, K; Hargadon, D P; Yu, D; MacDonald, T; Fabrigar, L; Garber, G

2015-11-01

Despite the importance of hand hygiene in preventing transmission of healthcare-associated infections, compliance rates are suboptimal. Hand hygiene is a complex behaviour and psychological frameworks are promising tools to influence healthcare worker (HCW) behaviour. (i) To review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behaviour change to improve HCW hand hygiene compliance; (ii) to determine which frameworks have been used to predict HCW hand hygiene compliance. Multiple databases and reference lists of included studies were searched for studies that applied psychological theories to improve and/or predict HCW hand hygiene. All steps in selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed independently by two reviewers. The search yielded 918 citations; seven met eligibility criteria. Four studies evaluated hand hygiene interventions based on psychological frameworks. Interventions were informed by goal setting, control theory, operant learning, positive reinforcement, change theory, the theory of planned behaviour, and the transtheoretical model. Three predictive studies employed the theory of planned behaviour, the transtheoretical model, and the theoretical domains framework. Interventions to improve hand hygiene adherence demonstrated efficacy but studies were at moderate to high risk of bias. For many studies, it was unclear how theories of behaviour change were used to inform the interventions. Predictive studies had mixed results. Behaviour change theory is a promising tool for improving hand hygiene; however, these theories have not been extensively examined. Our review reveals a significant gap in the literature and indicates possible avenues for novel research. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flexible investment under uncertainty in smart distribution networks with demand side response: Assessment framework and practical implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schachter, Jonathan A.; Mancarella, Pierluigi; Moriarty, John; Shaw, Rita

2016-01-01

need altering. The case study results indicate that DSR can be an economical option to delay or even avoid large irreversible capacity investments, thus reducing overall costs for networks and end customers. However, in order for the value and benefits of DSR to be acknowledged, a change in the regulatory framework (currently based on deterministic analysis) that takes explicit account of uncertainty in planning, as suggested by our work, is required. - Highlights: • A real options framework for distribution network investments under uncertainty. • Smart (flexible) and asset-based investment values are compared transparently in Microsoft Excel. • Both economic and physical (interruption) risks are measured in a multi-criterion analysis. • Case study shows the value of demand response for deferring asset-based investments. • Probabilistic regulatory frameworks are thus needed to give flexible investments their fair value.

An evolutionary framework for cultural change: Selectionism versus communal exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Gabora, Liane

2013-06-01

Dawkins' replicator-based conception of evolution has led to widespread mis-application of selectionism across the social sciences because it does not address the paradox that necessitated the theory of natural selection in the first place: how do organisms accumulate change when traits acquired over their lifetime are obliterated? This is addressed by von Neumann's concept of a self-replicating automaton (SRA). A SRA consists of a self-assembly code that is used in two distinct ways: (1) actively deciphered during development to construct a self-similar replicant, and (2) passively copied to the replicant to ensure that it can reproduce. Information that is acquired over a lifetime is not transmitted to offspring, whereas information that is inherited during copying is transmitted. In cultural evolution there is no mechanism for discarding acquired change. Acquired change can accumulate orders of magnitude faster than, and quickly overwhelm, inherited change due to differential replication of variants in response to selection. This prohibits a selectionist but not an evolutionary framework for culture and the creative processes that fuel it. The importance non-Darwinian processes in biological evolution is increasingly recognized. Recent work on the origin of life suggests that early life evolved through a non-Darwinian process referred to as communal exchange that does not involve a self-assembly code, and that natural selection emerged from this more haphazard, ancestral evolutionary process. It is proposed that communal exchange provides an evolutionary framework for culture that enables specification of cognitive features necessary for a (real or artificial) societies to evolve culture. This is supported by a computational model of cultural evolution and a conceptual network based program for documenting material cultural history, and it is consistent with high levels of human cooperation.

Gender and climate change-induced migration: proposing a framework for analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chindarkar, Namrata

2012-01-01

This paper proposes frameworks to analyze the gender dimensions of climate change-induced migration. The experiences, needs and priorities of climate migrants will vary by gender and these differences need to be accounted for if policies are to be inclusive. Among the vulnerable groups, women are likely to be disproportionately affected due to climate change because on average women tend to be poorer, less educated, have a lower health status and have limited direct access to or ownership of natural resources. Both the process (actual movement) and the outcomes (rural–rural or rural–urban migration, out-migration mainly of men) of climate change-induced migration are also likely to be highly gendered. (letter)

Self-Regulated Learning: The Continuous-Change Conceptual Framework and a Vision of New Paradigm, Technology System, and Pedagogical Support

Science.gov (United States)

Huh, Yeol; Reigeluth, Charles M.

2017-01-01

A modified conceptual framework called the Continuous-Change Framework for self-regulated learning (SRL) is presented. Common elements and limitations among the past frameworks are discussed in relation to the modified conceptual framework. The iterative nature of the goal setting process and overarching presence of self-efficacy and motivational…

A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system

OpenAIRE

Ebersberger, Bernd

2004-01-01

A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system / A. Pyka, B. Ebersberger, H. Hanusch. - In: Evolution and economic complexity / ed. J. Stanley Metcalfe ... - Cheltenham [u.a.] : Elgar, 2004. - S. 191-213

Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Daniel

2015-01-01

In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte, P A; Bhattacharya, A; Butler, C R; Chun, H K; Jacklitsch, B; Jacobs, T; Kiefer, M; Lincoln, J; Pendergrass, S; Shire, J; Watson, J; Wagner, G R

2016-11-01

In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.

Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazaris, Antonios D; Germond, Basil

2018-09-01

For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga L. Kupika

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs, address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector. Keywords: mainstreaming, biodiversity, wildlife, climate change policy, east and southern Africa

Multiscale mapping of species diversity under changed land use using imaging spectroscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Paz-Kagan, Tarin; Caras, Tamir; Herrmann, Ittai; Shachak, Moshe; Karnieli, Arnon

2017-07-01

Land use changes are one of the most important factors causing environmental transformations and species diversity alterations. The aim of the current study was to develop a geoinformatics-based framework to quantify alpha and beta diversity indices in two sites in Israel with different land uses, i.e., an agricultural system of fruit orchards, an afforestation system of planted groves, and an unmanaged system of groves. The framework comprises four scaling steps: (1) classification of a tree species distribution (SD) map using imaging spectroscopy (IS) at a pixel size of 1 m; (2) estimation of local species richness by calculating the alpha diversity index for 30-m grid cells; (3) calculation of beta diversity for different land use categories and sub-categories at different sizes; and (4) calculation of the beta diversity difference between the two sites. The SD was classified based on a hyperspectral image with 448 bands within the 380-2500 nm spectral range and a spatial resolution of 1 m. Twenty-three tree species were classified with high overall accuracy values of 82.57% and 86.93% for the two sites. Significantly high values of the alpha index characterize the unmanaged land use, and the lowest values were calculated for the agricultural land use. In addition, high values of alpha indices were found at the borders between the polygons related to the "edge-effect" phenomenon, whereas low alpha indices were found in areas with high invasion species rates. The beta index value, calculated for 58 polygons, was significantly lower in the agricultural land use. The suggested framework of this study succeeded in quantifying land use effects on tree species distribution, evenness, and richness. IS and spatial statistics techniques offer an opportunity to study woody plant species variation with a multiscale approach that is useful for managing land use, especially under increasing environmental changes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNulty, Steven G.; Boggs, Johnny L.

2010-01-01

Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period

Assessing the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in China by a novel framework for characterizing vegetation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Bingwen; Chen, Gong; Tang, Zhenghong; Lu, Difei; Wang, Zhuangzhuang; Chen, Chongchen

2017-11-01

The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) in China has been intensely invested for approximately 40 years. However, the efficacy of the TNSFP has been debatable due to the spatiotemporal complexity of vegetation changes. A novel framework was proposed for characterizing vegetation changes in the TNSFP region through Combining Trend and Temporal Similarity trajectory (COTTS). This framework could automatically and continuously address the fundamental questions on where, what, how and when vegetation changes have occurred. Vegetation trend was measured by a non-parametric method. The temporal similarity trajectory was tracked by the Jeffries-Matusita (JM) distance of the inter-annual vegetation indices temporal profiles and modeled using the logistic function. The COTTS approach was applied to examine the afforestation efforts of the TNSFP using 500 m 8-day composites MODIS datasets from 2001 to 2015. Accuracy assessment from the 1109 reference sites reveals that the COTTS is capable of automatically determining vegetation dynamic patterns, with an overall accuracy of 90.08% and a kappa coefficient of 0.8688. The efficacy of the TNSFP was evaluated through comprehensive considerations of vegetation, soil and wetness. Around 45.78% areas obtained increasing vegetation trend, 2.96% areas achieved bare soil decline and 4.50% areas exhibited increasing surface wetness. There were 4.49% areas under vegetation degradation & desertification. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of efficacy of the TNSFP was revealed: great vegetation gain through the abrupt dynamic pattern in the semi-humid and humid regions, bare soil decline & potential efficacy in the semi-arid region and remarkable efficacy in functional region of Eastern Ordos.

Xenon changes under power-burst conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diamond, D.J.

1983-01-01

Under ordinary operating conditions the xenon concentration in a reactor core can change significantly in times on the order of hours. Core transients of safety significance are much more rapid and hence calculations are done with xenon concentration held constant. However, in certain transients (such as reactivity initiated accidents) there is a very large power surge and the question arises as to whether under these circumstances the xenon concentration could change. This would be particularly important if the xenon were reduced thereby tending to make the accident autocatalytic. The objective of the present study is to quantify this effect to see if it could be important

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

76 FR 65496 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-21

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1790] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of June 18, 1934, as amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u), the Foreign-Trade Zones Board...

LandCaRe-DSS - model based tools for irrigation management under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dotterweich, Markus; Wilkinson, Kristina; Cassel, Martin; Scherzer, Jörg; Köstner, Barbara; Berg, Michael; Grocholl, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a strong influence on agricultural systems in the future. It will be important for decision makers and stakeholders to assess the impact of climate change at the farm and regional level in order to facilitate and maintain a sustainable and profitable farming infrastructure. Climate change impact studies have to incorporate aspects of uncertainty and the underlying knowledge is constantly expanding and improving. Decision support systems (DSS) with flexible data bases are therefore a useful tool for management and planning: different models can be applied under varying boundary conditions within a conceptual framework and the results can be used e.g. to show the effects of climate change scenarios and different land management options. Within this project, the already existing LandCaRe DSS will be further enhanced and improved. A first prototype had been developed for two regions in eastern Germany, mainly to show the effects of climate change on yields, nutrient balances and farm economy. The new model version will be tested and applied for a region in north-western Germany (Landkreis Uelzen) where arable land makes up about 50% of overall land-use and where 80 % of the arable land is already irrigated. For local decision makers, it will be important to know how water demand and water availability are likely to change in the future: Is more water needed for irrigation? Is more water actually available for irrigation? Will the existing limits for ground water withdrawal be sufficient for farmers to irrigate their crops? How can the irrigation water demand be influenced by land management options like the use of different crops and varieties or different farming and irrigation techniques? The main tasks of the project are (I) the integration of an improved irrigation model, (II) the development of a standardized interface to apply the DSS in different regions, (III) to optimize the graphical user interface, (IV) to transfer and

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

Brazil and the UN framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marques De Souza, J.A.

1996-01-01

Due to a high share (96%) of hydropower generation in its electricity production, Brazil emits relatively small amounts of CO 2 . It is argued that, because developed countries are responsible for some 65% of the global emissions of GHGs, they should start to reduce their greenhouse gas emission, which follows also directly from the Framework Convention on Climate Change. After ratification of the Convention Brazil has taken all steps to implement the Convention and to assess its greenhouse gas emissions. Various advisory and co-ordinating bodies have been installed by decree in mid 1994. (author). 1 fig., 1 tab

Biomass energy projects for joint implementation of the UN FCCC [Framework Convention on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swisher, Joel N.; Renner, Frederick P.

1998-01-01

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) allows for the joint implementation (JI) of measures to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. The concept of JI refers to the implementation of such measures in one country with partial or full financial and/or technical support from another country, potentially fulfilling some of the supporting country's emission-reduction commitment under the FCCC. This paper addresses some key issues related to JI under the FCCC as they relate to the development of biomass energy projects for carbon offsets in developing countries. Issues include the reference case or baseline, carbon accounting and net carbon storage, potential project implementation barriers and risks, monitoring and verification, local agreements and host-country approval. All of these issues are important in project design and evaluation. We discuss briefly several case studies, which consist of a biomass-fueled co-generation projects under development at large sugar mills in the Philippines, India and Brazil, as potential JI projects. The case studies illustrate the benefits of bioenergy for reducing carbon emissions and some of the important barriers and difficulties in developing and crediting such projects. Results to date illustrate both the achievements and the difficulties of this type of project. (author)

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

2016-01-01

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Catchment coevolution: A useful framework for improving predictions of hydrological change?

Science.gov (United States)

Troch, Peter A.

2017-04-01

The notion that landscape features have co-evolved over time is well known in the Earth sciences. Hydrologists have recently called for a more rigorous connection between emerging spatial patterns of landscape features and the hydrological response of catchments, and have termed this concept catchment coevolution. In this presentation we present a general framework of catchment coevolution that could improve predictions of hydrologic change. We first present empirical evidence of the interaction and feedback of landscape evolution and changes in hydrological response. From this review it is clear that the independent drivers of catchment coevolution are climate, geology, and tectonics. We identify common currency that allows comparing the levels of activity of these independent drivers, such that, at least conceptually, we can quantify the rate of evolution or aging. Knowing the hydrologic age of a catchment by itself is not very meaningful without linking age to hydrologic response. Two avenues of investigation have been used to understand the relationship between (differences in) age and hydrological response: (i) one that is based on relating present landscape features to runoff processes that are hypothesized to be responsible for the current fingerprints in the landscape; and (ii) one that takes advantage of an experimental design known as space-for-time substitution. Both methods have yielded significant insights in the hydrologic response of landscapes with different histories. If we want to make accurate predictions of hydrologic change, we will also need to be able to predict how the catchment will further coevolve in association with changes in the activity levels of the drivers (e.g., climate). There is ample evidence in the literature that suggests that whole-system prediction of catchment coevolution is, at least in principle, plausible. With this imperative we outline a research agenda that implements the concepts of catchment coevolution for building

Framework for projecting employment and population changes accompanying energy development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenehjem, E.J.; Metzger, J.E.

1980-05-01

This report provides a framework which energy planners can use to readily estimate the size and timing of the population and employment changes associated with energy development. The direct employment requirements for eight different technologies are listed. This direct employment requirement can be combined with the set of employment multipliers and other information provided to obtain practical estimates of the employment and population impacts of new energy development. Some explanation is given for the variation of the multipliers among counties in the same region. A description is presented of a demographic model for deriving the annual population changes that can be expected as a result of in-migrating workers and their families. Several hypothetical examples of the procedure for making the calculations are discussed as practical exercises in using the multipliers. The necessary data are provided for obtaining estimates of population and employment changes in any county in the US.

Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model based framework for SHM in structures with time-dependent dynamics under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Avendaño-Valencia, Luis David; Fassois, Spilios D.

2017-12-01

The problem of vibration-based damage diagnosis in structures characterized by time-dependent dynamics under significant environmental and/or operational uncertainty is considered. A stochastic framework consisting of a Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model of the uncertain time-dependent dynamics under each structural health state, proper estimation methods, and Bayesian or minimum distance type decision making, is postulated. The Random Coefficient (RC) time-dependent stochastic model with coefficients following a multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) allows for significant flexibility in uncertainty representation. Certain of the model parameters are estimated via a simple procedure which is founded on the related Multiple Model (MM) concept, while the GMM weights are explicitly estimated for optimizing damage diagnostic performance. The postulated framework is demonstrated via damage detection in a simple simulated model of a quarter-car active suspension with time-dependent dynamics and considerable uncertainty on the payload. Comparisons with a simpler Gaussian RC model based method are also presented, with the postulated framework shown to be capable of offering considerable improvement in diagnostic performance.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2017-01-01

optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

Effects of land markets and land management on ecosystem function: A framework for modelling exurban land-change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Robinson, D.T.; Sun, S.; Hutchins, M.; Riolo, R.; Brown, D.G.; Parker, D.C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Currie, W.S.; Kiger, S.

2013-01-01

This paper presents the conceptual design and application of a new land-change modelling framework that represents geographical, sociological, economic, and ecological aspects of a land system. The framework provides an overarching design that can be extended into specific model implementations to

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

Social Change: A Framework for Inclusive Leadership Development in Nursing Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Catherine Y; Pino Betancourt, Debra M; Morrison, Chenille

2016-03-01

The social change model (SCM) promotes equity, social justice, self-knowledge, service, and collaboration. It is a relevant framework for extracurricular leadership development programs that target students who may not self-identify as leaders. Application of the SCM in a leadership development program for prelicensure nursing students from underresourced or underrepresented backgrounds is described. Students' opinions about leadership for social change were explored through a focus group and a pilot test of an instrument designed to assess the values of the SCM. Students lack the experience required to feel comfortable with change, but they come into nursing with a sense of commitment that can be nurtured toward leadership for social change and health equity through best practices derived from the SCM. These include sociocultural conversations, mentoring relationships, community service, and membership in off-campus organizations. Nurse educators can cultivate inclusive leadership for social change using the SCM as a guide. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

A structural framework for anomalous change detection and characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prasad, Lakshman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Theiler, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

We present a spatially adaptive scheme for automatically searching a pair of images of a scene for unusual and interesting changes. Our motivation is to bring into play structural aspects of image features alongside the spectral attributes used for anomalous change detection (ACD). We leverage a small but informative subset of pixels, namely edge pixels of the images, as anchor points of a Delaunay triangulation to jointly decompose the images into a set of triangular regions, called trixels, which are spectrally uniform. Such decomposition helps in image regularization by simple-function approximation on a feature-adaptive grid. Applying ACD to this trixel grid instead of pixels offers several advantages. It allows: (1) edge-preserving smoothing of images, (2) speed-up of spatial computations by significantly reducing the representation of the images, and (3) the easy recovery of structure of the detected anomalous changes by associating anomalous trixels with polygonal image features. The latter facility further enables the application of shape-theoretic criteria and algorithms to characterize the changes and recognize them as interesting or not. This incorporation of spatial information has the potential to filter out some spurious changes, such as due to parallax, shadows, and misregistration, by identifying and filtering out those that are structurally similar and spatially pervasive. Our framework supports the joint spatial and spectral analysis of images, potentially enabling the design of more robust ACD algorithms.

Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research.

Science.gov (United States)

Cane, James; O'Connor, Denise; Michie, Susan

2012-04-24

An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. There was good support for a refinement of the framework comprising 14 domains of theoretical constructs (average silhouette value 0.29): 'Knowledge', 'Skills', 'Social/Professional Role and Identity', 'Beliefs about Capabilities', 'Optimism', 'Beliefs about Consequences', 'Reinforcement', 'Intentions', 'Goals', 'Memory, Attention and Decision Processes', 'Environmental Context and Resources', 'Social Influences', 'Emotions', and 'Behavioural Regulation'. The refined Theoretical Domains Framework has a strengthened empirical base and provides a method for theoretically assessing implementation problems, as well as professional and other health-related behaviours as a basis for intervention development.

Robustness-based evaluation of hydropower infrastructure design under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Ümit Taner

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The conventional tools of decision-making in water resources infrastructure planning have been developed for problems with well-characterized uncertainties and are ill-suited for problems involving climate nonstationarity. In the past 20 years, a predict-then-act-based approach to the incorporation of climate nonstationarity has been widely adopted in which the outputs of bias-corrected climate model projections are used to evaluate planning options. However, the ambiguous nature of results has often proved unsatisfying to decision makers. This paper presents the use of a bottom-up, decision scaling framework for the evaluation of water resources infrastructure design alternatives regarding their robustness to climate change and expected value of performance. The analysis begins with an assessment of the vulnerability of the alternative designs under a wide domain of systematically-generated plausible future climates and utilizes downscaled climate projections ex post to inform likelihoods within a risk-based evaluation. The outcomes under different project designs are compared by way of a set of decision criteria, including the performance under the most likely future, expected value of performance across all evaluated futures and robustness. The method is demonstrated for the design of a hydropower system in sub-Saharan Africa and is compared to the results that would be found using a GCM-based, scenario-led analysis. The results indicate that recommendations from the decision scaling analysis can be substantially different from the scenario-led approach, alleviate common shortcomings related to the use of climate projections in water resources planning, and produce recommendations that are more robust to future climate uncertainty.

Phase changes induced by guest orientational ordering of filled ice Ih methane hydrate under high pressure and low temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirai, H; Tanaka, T; Yagi, T; Matsuoka, T; Ohishi, Y; Ohtake, M; Yamamoto, Y

2014-01-01

Low-temperature and high-pressure experiments were performed with filled ice Ih structure of methane hydrate under pressure and temperature conditions of 2.0 to 77.0 GPa and 30 to 300 K, respectively, using diamond anvil cells and a helium-refrigeration cryostat. Distinct changes in the axial ratios of the host framework were revealed by In-situ X-ray diffractometry. Splitting in the CH vibration modes of the guest methane molecules, which was previously explained by the orientational ordering of the guest molecules, was observed by Raman spectroscopy. The pressure and temperature conditions at the split of the vibration modes agreed well with those of the axial ratio changes. The results indicated that orientational ordering of the guest methane molecules from orientational disordered-state occurred at high pressures and low temperatures, and that this guest ordering led to the axial ratio changes in the host framework. Existing regions of the guest disordered-phase and the guest ordered-phase were roughly estimated by the X-ray data. In addition, above the pressure of the guest-ordered phase, another high pressure phase was developed at a low-temperature region. The deuterated-water host samples were also examined and isotopic effects on the guest ordering and phase changes were observed.

The Regional Entrepreneurial Transformation Process—A Mid-Level Framework for Describing and Fostering Socioeconomic Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans Rüdiger Lange

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework for the socioeconomic transition of regions. It was developed in and for the region of Lusatia, which faces the challenge of becoming more entrepreneurial in order to maintain and regain economic strength. Based on theories of entrepreneurial ecosystems and structuration as well as on extensive practical experience, a mid-level framework for describing and fostering regional change is derived.

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ai Sian Ng

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

Strategic and legal framework in forestry and related sectors: Climate change mitigation in European Union and Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ranković Nenad

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The important role of forests in mitigating and adapting to climate changes is recognized and widely accepted. Therefore, it becomes a subject of universal interest and support. However, in the national strategies relating to climate change, the importance of the forestry sector in mitigating these changes is quite often not discussed in detail. In addition, the problem of climate change is not fully represented and included in national forestry policies. The aim of this research was to determine the compliance and differences of strategic and legislative frameworks in forestry and related sectors, relating to climate change mitigation in the EU and Serbia. At the EU level, there are two strategies and a policy framework, and in Serbia, eight sectoral strategies, referring and discussing the climate change mitigation through forestry. At the same time, these issues are highlighted as the primary objective, only in the Climate and Energy Package of the EU and the Forestry Development Strategy in Serbia. In terms of legislative framework in Serbia, two laws have climate change mitigation through forestry as the primary objective, while for the analyzed relevant EU legislation, this is a secondary objective. In Serbia, only the Forest law has a direct impact on climate change mitigation through forestry, while at EU level, there is no regulation, directive or communication, with the same direct influence. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Studies of climate changes and their impact on the environment-monitoring impacts, adaptation and mitigation, podprojekat, 43007/16-III: Socio-economic development, mitigation and adaptation to climate change

A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck

2013-01-01

Large knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding...... of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output...

Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2014-11-28

Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leary, N.A.

1999-01-01

The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Melanie

2007-01-01

Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

International migration and dietary change in Mexican women from a social practice framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Bojorquez, Ietza; Rosales, Cecilia; Angulo, Alexandra; de Zapien, Jill; Denman, Catalina; Madanat, Hala

2018-06-01

Migration from lower- and middle-income to high-income countries is associated with dietary change, and especially with the adoption of a modern, less healthy diet. In this article we analyze the dietary changes experienced by Mexican migrants, employing as a theoretical framework the concept of social practice. According to this framework, practices integrate material elements, meanings and competences that provide their conditions of possibility. Practices are shared by members of social groups, and interact with other competing or reinforcing practices. Between 2014 and 2015, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 27 women, international return migrants living in Tijuana, Mexico. The interview guide asked about history of migration and dietary change. We found three main areas of dietary change: from subsistence farming to ready meals, abundance vs. restriction, and adoption of new food items. The first one was associated with changes in food procurement and female work: when moving from rural to urban areas, participants substituted self-produced for purchased food; and as migrant women joined the labor force, consumption of ready meals increased. The second was the result of changes in income: participants of lower socioeconomic position modified the logic of food acquisition from restriction to abundance and back, depending on the available resources. The third change was relatively minor, with occasional consumption of new dishes or food items, and was associated with exposure to different cuisines and with learning how to cook them. Public health efforts to improve the migrants' diets should take into account the constitutive elements of dietary practices, instead of isolating individuals from their social contexts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financing climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

75 FR 61696 - Foreign-Trade Zone 51-Duluth, MN; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-06

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Docket 58-2010] Foreign-Trade Zone 51--Duluth... FTZ 51, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted... or reorganizing a general-purpose zone, the application would have no impact on FTZ 51's authorized...

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

What role does performance information play in securing improvement in healthcare? a conceptual framework for levers of change.

Science.gov (United States)

Levesque, Jean-Frederic; Sutherland, Kim

2017-08-28

Across healthcare systems, there is consensus on the need for independent and impartial assessment of performance. There is less agreement about how measurement and reporting performance improves healthcare. This paper draws on academic theories to develop a conceptual framework-one that classifies in an integrated manner the ways in which change can be leveraged by healthcare performance information. A synthesis of published frameworks. The framework identifies eight levers for change enabled by performance information, spanning internal and external drivers, and emergent and planned processes: (1) cognitive levers provide awareness and understanding; (2) mimetic levers inform about the performance of others to encourage emulation; (3) supportive levers provide facilitation, implementation tools or models of care to actively support change; (4) formative levers develop capabilities and skills through teaching, mentoring and feedback; (5) normative levers set performance against guidelines, standards, certification and accreditation processes; (6) coercive levers use policies, regulations incentives and disincentives to force change; (7) structural levers modify the physical environment or professional cultures and routines; (8) competitive levers attract patients or funders. This framework highlights how performance measurement and reporting can contribute to eight different levers for change. It provides guidance into how to align performance measurement and reporting into quality improvement programme. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Alternative fuels from forest residues for passenger cars - an assessment under German framework conditions

OpenAIRE

Hurtig, O.; Leible, L.; Kälber, S.; Kappler, g.; Spicher, U.

2014-01-01

Background Due to the available volumes, biogenic residues are a promising resource for renewable fuels for passenger cars to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, we compare three fuels from forest residues under German framework conditions: biogenic electricity, substitute natural gas (SNG), and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) diesel. Methods Fuels from forest residues are compared with regard to their technical efficiency (here defined as ‘pkm per kg b...

A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

Science.gov (United States)

McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

2017-06-01

Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

77 FR 43048 - Foreign-Trade Zone 32-Miami, FL; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-23

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [B-51-2012] Foreign-Trade Zone 32--Miami, FL... Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (the Board) by the Greater Miami Foreign-Trade Zone, Inc., grantee of FTZ 32, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted by...

The fate of object memory traces under change detection and change blindness.

Science.gov (United States)

Busch, Niko A

2013-07-03

Observers often fail to detect substantial changes in a visual scene. This so-called change blindness is often taken as evidence that visual representations are sparse and volatile. This notion rests on the assumption that the failure to detect a change implies that representations of the changing objects are lost all together. However, recent evidence suggests that under change blindness, object memory representations may be formed and stored, but not retrieved. This study investigated the fate of object memory representations when changes go unnoticed. Participants were presented with scenes consisting of real world objects, one of which changed on each trial, while recording event-related potentials (ERPs). Participants were first asked to localize where the change had occurred. In an additional recognition task, participants then discriminated old objects, either from the pre-change or the post-change scene, from entirely new objects. Neural traces of object memories were studied by comparing ERPs for old and novel objects. Participants performed poorly in the detection task and often failed to recognize objects from the scene, especially pre-change objects. However, a robust old/novel effect was observed in the ERP, even when participants were change blind and did not recognize the old object. This implicit memory trace was found both for pre-change and post-change objects. These findings suggest that object memories are stored even under change blindness. Thus, visual representations may not be as sparse and volatile as previously thought. Rather, change blindness may point to a failure to retrieve and use these representations for change detection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The U.S. forest carbon accounting framework: stocks and stock change, 1990-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher W. Woodall; John W. Coulston; Grant M. Domke; Brian F. Walters; David N. Wear; James E. Smith; Hans-Erik Andersen; Brian J. Clough; Warren B. Cohen; Douglas M. Griffith; Stephen C. Hagen; Ian S. Hanou; Michael C. Nichols; Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Matthew B. Russell; Jim Westfall; Barry T. (Ty) Wilson

2015-01-01

As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States annually prepares an inventory of carbon that has been emitted and sequestered among sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, and forests). For many years, the United States developed an inventory of forest carbon by comparing contemporary forest inventories to inventories that...

A normative ethical framework in climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grasso, M. [Dipartimento di Sociologia e Ricerca Sociale, Universita degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Edificio U7, via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milan (Italy)

2007-04-15

The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen's capability approach, seems promising.

Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Bret Bruce; Diana Allen; Henrique Chaves; Gordon Grant; Gualbert Oude Essink; Henk Kooi; Ian White; Jason Gurdak; Jay Famiglietti; Jose Luis Martin-Bordes; Kevin Hiscock; Matthew Rodell; Neno Kukuric; Peter B. McMahon; Richard Taylor; Timothy Green; Yoseph Yechieli

2008-01-01

Given the vision and mission statements for GRAPHIC above, this document provides an updated framework for the GRAPHIC program. The approach to addressing global issues under the GRAPHIC umbrella involves case studies designed to cover a broad range of the identified Subjects, Methods, and Regions. Interdependencies of factors and processes affecting subsurface water...

Testing a Conceptual Change Model Framework for Visual Data

Science.gov (United States)

Finson, Kevin D.; Pedersen, Jon E.

2015-01-01

An emergent data analysis technique was employed to test the veracity of a conceptual framework constructed around visual data use and instruction in science classrooms. The framework incorporated all five key components Vosniadou (2007a, 2007b) described as existing in a learner's schema: framework theory, presuppositions, conceptual domains,…

Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

2011-01-01

This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

2016-01-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

2013-09-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, A.; Vivoni, E.; Halvorsen, K.; Robles-Morua, A.; Dana, K.; Che, D.; Mirchi, A.; Kossak, D.; Casteneda, M.

2013-05-01

In this project, we are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of three workshops, designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. Participants will guide the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change and infrastructure management scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. Through the theory of planned behavior, the participatory modeling process will be evaluated to understand if, and to what extent, the engineering tools are useful in the uncertain and politically-complex setting. Pre- and post-workshop surveys will be used in this evaluation. For this contribution, we present the results of the first collaborative modeling workshop that will be held in March 2013, where we will develop the initial modeling framework in collaboration with workshop participants.

Developing theory-informed behaviour change interventions to implement evidence into practice: a systematic approach using the Theoretical Domains Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

French Simon D

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is little systematic operational guidance about how best to develop complex interventions to reduce the gap between practice and evidence. This article is one in a Series of articles documenting the development and use of the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF to advance the science of implementation research. Methods The intervention was developed considering three main components: theory, evidence, and practical issues. We used a four-step approach, consisting of guiding questions, to direct the choice of the most appropriate components of an implementation intervention: Who needs to do what, differently? Using a theoretical framework, which barriers and enablers need to be addressed? Which intervention components (behaviour change techniques and mode(s of delivery could overcome the modifiable barriers and enhance the enablers? And how can behaviour change be measured and understood? Results A complex implementation intervention was designed that aimed to improve acute low back pain management in primary care. We used the TDF to identify the barriers and enablers to the uptake of evidence into practice and to guide the choice of intervention components. These components were then combined into a cohesive intervention. The intervention was delivered via two facilitated interactive small group workshops. We also produced a DVD to distribute to all participants in the intervention group. We chose outcome measures in order to assess the mediating mechanisms of behaviour change. Conclusions We have illustrated a four-step systematic method for developing an intervention designed to change clinical practice based on a theoretical framework. The method of development provides a systematic framework that could be used by others developing complex implementation interventions. While this framework should be iteratively adjusted and refined to suit other contexts and settings, we believe that the four-step process should be

Developing theory-informed behaviour change interventions to implement evidence into practice: a systematic approach using the Theoretical Domains Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

French, Simon D; Green, Sally E; O'Connor, Denise A; McKenzie, Joanne E; Francis, Jill J; Michie, Susan; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Schattner, Peter; Spike, Neil; Grimshaw, Jeremy M

2012-04-24

There is little systematic operational guidance about how best to develop complex interventions to reduce the gap between practice and evidence. This article is one in a Series of articles documenting the development and use of the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to advance the science of implementation research. The intervention was developed considering three main components: theory, evidence, and practical issues. We used a four-step approach, consisting of guiding questions, to direct the choice of the most appropriate components of an implementation intervention: Who needs to do what, differently? Using a theoretical framework, which barriers and enablers need to be addressed? Which intervention components (behaviour change techniques and mode(s) of delivery) could overcome the modifiable barriers and enhance the enablers? And how can behaviour change be measured and understood? A complex implementation intervention was designed that aimed to improve acute low back pain management in primary care. We used the TDF to identify the barriers and enablers to the uptake of evidence into practice and to guide the choice of intervention components. These components were then combined into a cohesive intervention. The intervention was delivered via two facilitated interactive small group workshops. We also produced a DVD to distribute to all participants in the intervention group. We chose outcome measures in order to assess the mediating mechanisms of behaviour change. We have illustrated a four-step systematic method for developing an intervention designed to change clinical practice based on a theoretical framework. The method of development provides a systematic framework that could be used by others developing complex implementation interventions. While this framework should be iteratively adjusted and refined to suit other contexts and settings, we believe that the four-step process should be maintained as the primary framework to guide researchers through a

Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

2017-04-01

Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

Theories of behaviour change synthesised into a set of theoretical groupings: introducing a thematic series on the theoretical domains framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Francis, Jill J; O'Connor, Denise; Curran, Janet

2012-04-24

Behaviour change is key to increasing the uptake of evidence into healthcare practice. Designing behaviour-change interventions first requires problem analysis, ideally informed by theory. Yet the large number of partly overlapping theories of behaviour makes it difficult to select the most appropriate theory. The need for an overarching theoretical framework of behaviour change was addressed in research in which 128 explanatory constructs from 33 theories of behaviour were identified and grouped. The resulting Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) appears to be a helpful basis for investigating implementation problems. Research groups in several countries have conducted TDF-based studies. It seems timely to bring together the experience of these teams in a thematic series to demonstrate further applications and to report key developments. This overview article describes the TDF, provides a brief critique of the framework, and introduces this thematic series.In a brief review to assess the extent of TDF-based research, we identified 133 papers that cite the framework. Of these, 17 used the TDF as the basis for empirical studies to explore health professionals' behaviour. The identified papers provide evidence of the impact of the TDF on implementation research. Two major strengths of the framework are its theoretical coverage and its capacity to elicit beliefs that could signify key mediators of behaviour change. The TDF provides a useful conceptual basis for assessing implementation problems, designing interventions to enhance healthcare practice, and understanding behaviour-change processes. We discuss limitations and research challenges and introduce papers in this series.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

The mitigation framework in the 2015 climate change agreement: from targets to pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, Thomas; Colombier, Michel; Ribera, Teresa; Sha, Fu; Ji, Zou

2014-01-01

This paper is an effort between researchers from different countries and with different backgrounds to achieve an agreed text on an important issue in the climate negotiations through a thought experiment of 'think tank level negotiation'. It is a significant achievement for two groups of authors from China and Europe to have come this far. Countries have agreed to negotiate a new climate agreement by 2015. One of the key elements of this negotiation process will be a new mitigation framework and new emissions targets for all. How should the information that Parties put forward be structured, in order to promote participation, equity, transparency and ambition? The new agreement needs to find a way to allow the continuous strengthening of the action of sovereign states, to reflect the 2 deg. C objective. It will also need to provide a flexible and equitable framework for mitigation targets, to reflect both different levels of uncertainty and the large spectrum of countries and gaps in the development of different country groups. There is a need to shift out of the 'target mentality' and towards an understanding of climate change as the challenge of shifting long-term social, technological, investment and infra-structural pathways, as well as behaviours. Uncertainties in such structural processes may be particularly high in developing or emerging countries still undergoing industrialization, demographic shift, and urbanization. Mastering them requires long-term policy horizons, cooperation, technology innovation and policy learning, focusing on the drivers of emissions reductions. The Warsaw decision stated in 2013 that mitigation targets would be nationally-determined. In this context, the discussion around a global goal should no longer be seen as a basis for top-down allocation, but rather as a directional reference against which global progress must be assessed to identify the gap to be filled to foster enhanced action. It is essential to

Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer

Science.gov (United States)

Anandhi, Aavudai; Kannan, Narayanan

2018-02-01

Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System's Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European's Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's framework (IPCC's); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the "breadbasket of the world"), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US.

An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, David J.

2010-01-01

This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

For a better understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change: a research framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnan, Alexandre

2010-05-01

It is generally accepted that there exists a systematic link between a low level of adaptive capacity and a low level of development, which thus implies that the poor inevitably have low adaptive capacities. We argue here that this viewpoint is biased because adaptation to climate change is not solely determined by economic and technological capacities. Many other characteristics of a community can play a major role in its ability to react to and anticipate climate changes (e.g. the territorial identity or the social relationships). From our point of view, this limited view of adaptive capacity is related to a relative immaturity of the science of adaptation, a discipline that analyses the processes and determinants of adaptive capacity. This can be explained by the fact that there are currently few existing frameworks for studying adaptive capacity. This paper consists in a proposal for a research framework which is based upon four main fields of investigation: (i) the influential factors of adaptive capacity and their interactions, (ii) the relevant spatial and temporal scales of adaptive capacity, (iii) the links between adaptive capacity, vulnerability and the level of development and (iv) the theoretical links between adaptation and sustainability. These four fields of research should bring new knowledge on adaptive capacity and feed a more general reflection on the adaptation pathways for dealing with climate change. (author)

Lake eutrophication and environmental change: A viability framework for resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, Jean-Denis; Rougé, Charles; Deffuant, Guillaume

2013-04-01

We present a simple stochastic model of lake eutrophication to demonstrate how the mathematical framework of viability theory fosters operational definitions of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and then helps understand which response one should bring to environmental changes. The model represents the phosphorus dynamics, given that high concentrations trigger a regime change from oligotrophic to eutrophic, and causes ecological but also economic losses, for instance from tourism. Phosphorus comes from agricultural inputs upstream of the lake, and we will consider a stochastic input. We consider the system made of both the lake and its upstream region, and explore how to maintain the desirable ecological and economic properties of this system. In the viability framework, we translate these desirable properties into state constraints, then examine how, given the dynamics of the model and the available policy options, the properties can be kept. The set of states for which there exists a policy to keep the properties is called the viability kernel. We extend this framework to both major perturbations and long-term environmental changes. In our model, since the phosphorus inputs and outputs from the lake depend on rainfall, we will focus on extreme rainfall events and long-term changes in the rainfall regime. They can be described as changes in the state of the system, and may displace it outside the viability kernel. Its response can then be described using the concepts of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Resilience is the capacity to recover by getting back to the viability kernel where the dynamics keep the system safe, and in this work we assume it to be the first objective of management. Computed for a given trajectory, vulnerability is a measure of the consequence of violating a property. We propose a family of functions from which cost functions and other vulnerability indicators can be derived for any trajectory. There can be

Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

2014-01-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-01-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision...... crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two...

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

2016-01-01

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

Inventory of greenhouse effect gases in France under the united nation framework convention on climatic change; Inventaire des emissions de gaz a effet de serre en France au titre de la convention cadre des nations unies sur le changement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-12-01

The present report supplies emission data, for France and for the period 1990 - 2000 concerning all the substances involved in the increase in the greenhouse effect and covered under the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The substances are the six direct greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto protocol: carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), the two species of halogenous substances - hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), gases which indirectly make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, are reported under the Convention. For the period 1990 - 1999 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/CP/1999/7) defined by the UNFCCC on reporting for inventories of emissions, in particular the use of the Common Reporting Format (CRF). (author)

Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2016-01-01

Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melanie Boeckmann

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the

Growth-Maximizing Public Debt under Changing Demographics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bokan, Nikola; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Hallett, Andrew Hughes

2016-01-01

This paper develops an overlapping-generations model to study the growth-maximizing level of public debt under conditions of demograhic change. It is shown that the optimal debt level depends on a positive marginal productivity of public capital. In general, it also depends on the demographic par...... will have to adjust its fiscal plans to accommodate those changes, most likely downward, if growth is to be preserved. An advantage of this model is that it allows us to determine in advance the way in which fiscal policies need to adjust as demographic parameters change....

Situating interventions to bridge the intention-behaviour gap: A framework for recruiting nonconscious processes for behaviour change

OpenAIRE

Papies, Esther K.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a situated cognition framework for creating social psychological interventions to bridge the intention–behaviour gap and illustrates this framework by reviewing examples from the domains of health behaviour, environmental behaviour, stereotyping, and aggression. A recurrent problem in behaviour change is the fact that often, intentions are not translated into behaviour, causing the so-called intention–behaviour gap. Here, it is argued that this happens when situational cue...

Infinite slope stability under steady unsaturated seepage conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Ning; Godt, Jonathan W.

2008-01-01

We present a generalized framework for the stability of infinite slopes under steady unsaturated seepage conditions. The analytical framework allows the water table to be located at any depth below the ground surface and variation of soil suction and moisture content above the water table under steady infiltration conditions. The framework also explicitly considers the effect of weathering and porosity increase near the ground surface on changes in the friction angle of the soil. The factor of safety is conceptualized as a function of the depth within the vadose zone and can be reduced to the classical analytical solution for subaerial infinite slopes in the saturated zone. Slope stability analyses with hypothetical sandy and silty soils are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the framework. These analyses indicate that for hillslopes of both sandy and silty soils, failure can occur above the water table under steady infiltration conditions, which is consistent with some field observations that cannot be predicted by the classical infinite slope theory. A case study of shallow slope failures of sandy colluvium on steep coastal hillslopes near Seattle, Washington, is presented to examine the predictive utility of the proposed framework.

New Equating Methods and Their Relationships with Levine Observed Score Linear Equating under the Kernel Equating Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Haiwen; Holland, Paul

2010-01-01

In this paper, we develop a new curvilinear equating for the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design under the assumption of the classical test theory model, that we name curvilinear Levine observed score equating. In fact, by applying both the kernel equating framework and the mean preserving linear transformation of…

The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

Science.gov (United States)

Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

2016-01-01

Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small Island States of the Caribbean. In the Caribbean islands, climate change is affecting freshwater availability and other ecosystem services in complex ways. For example, freshwater supply is diminished by droughts and affected by saline intrusion due to sea ...

Frequent price changes under menu costs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Per Svejstrup

1999-01-01

, the price may be changed more frequent in the short run, and in the long run it definitely will. Hence, observing frequent price changes is not necessarily inconsistent with a firm operating under menu costs. This paper relies on an article by Dixit (1991), (Review of Economic studies, 58, 141......This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on a single firm's pricing behaviour in a dynamic menu cost model that results in (S,s)-rules where the price is fixed inside a band. It will be demonstrated that even though the band of inaction widens in response to increased uncertainty...

A framework for analyzing sex-selective abortion: the example of changing sex ratios in Southern Caucasus

Science.gov (United States)

Hohmann, Sophie A; Lefèvre, Cécile A; Garenne, Michel L

2014-01-01

The paper proposes a socioeconomic framework of supply, demand, and regulation to explain the development of sex-selective abortion in several parts of the world. The framework is then applied to three countries of southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) where sex-selective abortion has developed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The authors argue that sex-selective abortion cannot be explained simply by patriarchal social systems, sex discrimination, or son preference. The emphasis is put on the long-term acceptability of abortion in the region, on acceptability of sex-screening by both the medical establishment and by the population, on newly imported techniques of sex-screening, and on the changing demand for children associated with the major economic and social changes that followed the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. PMID:25349481

Creating Innovative Frameworks to Spur Cultural Change at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center

Science.gov (United States)

Samuel, Aamod; Lozano, Joel; Carte, Olivia; Robillos, Troy

2018-01-01

furniture, and new capabilities that would bring people in. Decisions and desires underwent a rapid reiterative process in order to stay within budget and short deadlines, while holding firm to what was seen as fundamental elements of an innovation space. The framework for cultural change being established, the more difficult task began: incubating the desired culture. Intentional workday use of the innovation space was encouraged, and organized events coordinated in order to truly foster culture change. Such incubation supports the organic spread of culture change to all areas of AFRC. This framework was complemented and expanded by the implementation of the bike share program. Steps for implementation included bike selection based on lessons learned, creating bike stations and signage, implementing bike share rules, and building a volunteer maintenance infrastructure. A novel user-reporting feedback system at each bike station is a low-impact method of capturing usage metrics. Due to the nature of the work conducted at AFRC, the bike share program and feedback system were negotiated and vetted through various organizations including legal, safety, and operations. The innovation space and the bike share program together are an effective initial framework for innovation and collaboration. Culture change takes time, but the innovation space and the bike share program are already showing signs of making a positive impact on the AFRC workforce.

On user behaviour adaptation under interface change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin S

2014-02-01

Full Text Available International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces, Haifa, Israel, 24-27 February 2014 On User Behaviour Adaptation Under Interface Change Benjamin Rosman_ Subramanian Ramamoorthy M. M. Hassan Mahmud School of Informatics University of Edinburgh...

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

An Assessment Framework for Cities Coping with Climate Change: The Case of New York City and its PlaNYC 2030

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yosef Jabareen

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change and its resulting uncertainties challenge the concepts, procedures, and scope of conventional approaches to planning, creating a need to rethink and revise current planning methods. This paper proposes a new conceptual framework for assessing city plans based on the idea of sustainability and planning countering climate change. It applies this framework to assess the recent master plan for the city of New York City: PlaNYC 2030. The framework consists of eight concepts that were identified through conceptual analyses of the planning and interdisciplinary literature on sustainability and climate change. Using the proposed conceptual framework to evaluate PlaNYC 2030 reveals some of the merits of the Plan. PlaNYC promotes greater compactness and density, enhanced mixed land use, sustainable transportation, greening, and renewal and utilization of underused land. With regard to the concept of uncertainty, it addresses future uncertainties related to climate change with institutional measures only. From the perspective of ecological economics, the Plan creates a number of mechanisms to promote its climate change goals and to create a cleaner environment for economic investment. It offers an ambitious vision of reducing emissions by 30% and creating a “greener, greater New York,” and links this vision with the international agenda for climate change. On the other hand, the assessment reveals that PlaNYC did not make a radical shift toward planning for climate change and adaptation. It inadequately addresses social planning issues that are crucial to New York City. NYC is “socially differentiated” in terms of the capacity of communities to meet climate change uncertainties, and the Plan fails to address the issues facing vulnerable communities due to climate change. The Plan calls for an integrative approach to climate change on the institutional level, but it fails to effectively integrate civil society, communities, and

Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

2000-01-01

The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

Therapeutic Change in Group Therapy For Interpersonal Trauma: A Relational Framework for Research and Clinical Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Chouliara, Zoë; Karatzias, Thanos; Gullone, Angela; Ferguson, Sandra; Cosgrove, Katie; Burke Draucker, Claire

2017-04-01

Our understanding of therapeutic change processes in group therapy for complex interpersonal trauma has been limited. The present study aimed at addressing this gap by developing a framework of therapeutic change in this field from a survivor and therapist perspective. This is a qualitative study, which utilized semistructured individual interviews. Transcripts were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) to identify recurrent themes. A final sample of n = 16 patients and n = 5 facilitators completed the interview. Main change processes identified by survivors were as follows: self versus others, trust versus threat, confrontation versus avoidance, and "patching up" versus true healing. Therapeutic processes identified by therapist facilitators included managing group dynamics, unpredictability and uncertainty, and process versus content. The proposed framework explains therapeutic change in group therapy in relational terms, that is, therapeutic dissonance, the dynamic interaction of self and experience as well as building empathic trusting relations. The importance of managing dissonance to aid personally meaningful recovery was highlighted. These findings have implications for the usefulness of relational and person-centered approaches to clinical practice in the area of interpersonal and complex trauma, especially in the early identification, prevention, and management of dropouts.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

A Conceptual Framework of Ancillary Benefit Modeling in Context of Climate Change in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joh, Seung Hun; Nam, Yun Mi [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1999-12-01

A climate change requires a prudent and general policy since its effect is expected to be very extensive on ecosystem, agricultural production, bio diversity, human health, damage on buildings due to the temperature and sea level increase. Korea is facing to establish and implement a greenhouse gas reduction policy for UNFCCC, established to prevent a climate change. In this study, it recommended to establish a concept for measuring a incidental benefit by reducing greenhouse gas and suggested a framework for establishing a model development suitable to Korea. 43 refs., 7 figs., 33 tabs.

Conceptual Frameworks for the Workplace Change Adoption Process: Elements Integration from Decision Making and Learning Cycle Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Radin Umar, Radin Zaid; Sommerich, Carolyn M; Lavender, Steve A; Sanders, Elizabeth; Evans, Kevin D

2018-05-14

Sound workplace ergonomics and safety-related interventions may be resisted by employees, and this may be detrimental to multiple stakeholders. Understanding fundamental aspects of decision making, behavioral change, and learning cycles may provide insights into pathways influencing employees' acceptance of interventions. This manuscript reviews published literature on thinking processes and other topics relevant to decision making and incorporates the findings into two new conceptual frameworks of the workplace change adoption process. Such frameworks are useful for thinking about adoption in different ways and testing changes to traditional intervention implementation processes. Moving forward, it is recommended that future research focuses on systematic exploration of implementation process activities that integrate principles from the research literature on sensemaking, decision making, and learning processes. Such exploration may provide the groundwork for development of specific implementation strategies that are theoretically grounded and provide a revised understanding of how successful intervention adoption processes work.

simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

Advances in Understanding Energy Consumption Behavior and the Governance of Its Change – Outline of an Integrated Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burger, Paul, E-mail: paul.burger@unibas.ch [Sustainability Research Group, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Bezençon, Valéry [Enterprise Institute, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel (Switzerland); Bornemann, Basil [Sustainability Research Group, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Brosch, Tobias [Department of Psychology, Swiss Center for Affective Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Carabias-Hütter, Vicente [Institute of Sustainable Development, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur (Switzerland); Farsi, Mehdi [Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel (Switzerland); Hille, Stefanie Lena [Institute for Economy and the Environment, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen (Switzerland); Moser, Corinne [Institute of Sustainable Development, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur (Switzerland); Ramseier, Céline [Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); Samuel, Robin [Institute of Sociology, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Social Research and Methodology Group, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Sander, David [Department of Psychology, Swiss Center for Affective Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Schmidt, Stephan; Sohre, Annika [Sustainability Research Group, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Volland, Benjamin [Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel (Switzerland)

2015-06-15

Transforming today’s energy systems in industrialized countries requires a substantial reduction of the total energy consumption at the individual level. Selected instruments have been found to be effective in changing people’s behavior in single domains. However, the so far weak success story on reducing overall energy consumption indicates that our understanding of the determining factors of individual energy consumption as well as of its change is far from being conclusive. Among others, the scientific state of the art is dominated by analyzing single domains of consumption and by neglecting embodied energy. It also displays strong disciplinary splits and the literature often fails to distinguish between explaining behavior and explaining change of behavior. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps regarding the legitimacy and effectiveness of the governance of individual consumption behavior and its change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this paper is to establish an integrated interdisciplinary framework that offers a systematic basis for linking the different aspects in research on energy related consumption behavior, thus paving the way for establishing a better evidence base to inform societal actions. The framework connects the three relevant analytical aspects of the topic in question: (1) it systematically and conceptually frames the objects, i.e., the energy consumption behavior and its change (explananda); (2) it structures the factors that potentially explain the energy consumption behavior and its change (explanantia); (3) it provides a differentiated understanding of change inducing interventions in terms of governance. Based on the existing states of the art approaches from different disciplines within the social sciences, the proposed framework is supposed to guide interdisciplinary empirical research.

Advances in Understanding Energy Consumption Behavior and the Governance of Its Change – Outline of an Integrated Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Paul; Bezençon, Valéry; Bornemann, Basil; Brosch, Tobias; Carabias-Hütter, Vicente; Farsi, Mehdi; Hille, Stefanie Lena; Moser, Corinne; Ramseier, Céline; Samuel, Robin; Sander, David; Schmidt, Stephan; Sohre, Annika; Volland, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Transforming today’s energy systems in industrialized countries requires a substantial reduction of the total energy consumption at the individual level. Selected instruments have been found to be effective in changing people’s behavior in single domains. However, the so far weak success story on reducing overall energy consumption indicates that our understanding of the determining factors of individual energy consumption as well as of its change is far from being conclusive. Among others, the scientific state of the art is dominated by analyzing single domains of consumption and by neglecting embodied energy. It also displays strong disciplinary splits and the literature often fails to distinguish between explaining behavior and explaining change of behavior. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps regarding the legitimacy and effectiveness of the governance of individual consumption behavior and its change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this paper is to establish an integrated interdisciplinary framework that offers a systematic basis for linking the different aspects in research on energy related consumption behavior, thus paving the way for establishing a better evidence base to inform societal actions. The framework connects the three relevant analytical aspects of the topic in question: (1) it systematically and conceptually frames the objects, i.e., the energy consumption behavior and its change (explananda); (2) it structures the factors that potentially explain the energy consumption behavior and its change (explanantia); (3) it provides a differentiated understanding of change inducing interventions in terms of governance. Based on the existing states of the art approaches from different disciplines within the social sciences, the proposed framework is supposed to guide interdisciplinary empirical research.

Saving Lives at Birth; development of a retrospective theory of change, impact framework and prioritised metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lalli, Marek; Ruysen, Harriet; Blencowe, Hannah; Yee, Kristen; Clune, Karen; DeSilva, Mary; Leffler, Marissa; Hillman, Emily; El-Noush, Haitham; Mulligan, Jo; Murray, Jeffrey C; Silver, Karlee; Lawn, Joy E

2018-01-29

Grand Challenges for international health and development initiatives have received substantial funding to tackle unsolved problems; however, evidence of their effectiveness in achieving change is lacking. A theory of change may provide a useful tool to track progress towards desired outcomes. The Saving Lives at Birth partnership aims to address inequities in maternal-newborn survival through the provision of strategic investments for the development, testing and transition-to-scale of ground-breaking prevention and treatment approaches with the potential to leapfrog conventional healthcare approaches in low resource settings. We aimed to develop a theory of change and impact framework with prioritised metrics to map the initiative's contribution towards overall goals, and to measure progress towards improved outcomes around the time of birth. A theory of change and impact framework was developed retrospectively, drawing on expertise across the partnership and stakeholders. This included a document and literature review, and wide consultation, with feedback from stakeholders at all stages. Possible indicators were reviewed from global maternal-newborn health-related partner initiatives, priority indicator lists, and project indicators from current innovators. These indicators were scored across five domains to prioritise those most relevant and feasible for Saving Lives at Birth. These results informed the identification of the prioritised metrics for the initiative. The pathway to scale through Saving Lives at Birth is articulated through a theory of change and impact framework, which also highlight the roles of different actors involved in the programme. A prioritised metrics toolkit, including ten core impact indicators and five additional process indicators, complement the theory of change. The retrospective nature of this development enabled structured reflection of the program mechanics, allowing for inclusion of learning from the first four rounds of the

Toward enhancing the distributed video coder under a multiview video codec framework

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Jiann-Jone; Tsai, Yao-Hong; Chen, Chin-Hua

2016-11-01

The advance of video coding technology enables multiview video (MVV) or three-dimensional television (3-D TV) display for users with or without glasses. For mobile devices or wireless applications, a distributed video coder (DVC) can be utilized to shift the encoder complexity to decoder under the MVV coding framework, denoted as multiview distributed video coding (MDVC). We proposed to exploit both inter- and intraview video correlations to enhance side information (SI) and improve the MDVC performance: (1) based on the multiview motion estimation (MVME) framework, a categorized block matching prediction with fidelity weights (COMPETE) was proposed to yield a high quality SI frame for better DVC reconstructed images. (2) The block transform coefficient properties, i.e., DCs and ACs, were exploited to design the priority rate control for the turbo code, such that the DVC decoding can be carried out with fewest parity bits. In comparison, the proposed COMPETE method demonstrated lower time complexity, while presenting better reconstructed video quality. Simulations show that the proposed COMPETE can reduce the time complexity of MVME to 1.29 to 2.56 times smaller, as compared to previous hybrid MVME methods, while the image peak signal to noise ratios (PSNRs) of a decoded video can be improved 0.2 to 3.5 dB, as compared to H.264/AVC intracoding.

Decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, Shengping; Geng, Shuai

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The evaluation index system is set by the engineering and supply chain perspectives. • The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) to express the performances. • The IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of weights. - Abstract: The selection of appropriate photovoltaic module is of extremely high importance for the solar power station project; however the comprehensive problem of evaluation index system, the information loss problem and the lack-objectivity problem in the selection process will decrease the reasonability of the selection result. The innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the comprehensive evaluation index system of photovoltaic module is established from the engineering management and supply chain management perspectives to solve the comprehensive problem; second, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) are introduced into the photovoltaic modules selection process to express the alternatives’ performances to solve the information loss problem; third, the IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of the criteria’s weights. According to the aforementioned solutions, the decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment are established and used in a case study to demonstrate its effectiveness. Therefore, from the theoretical modeling and empirical demonstration, the decision framework proposed in this paper can effectively handle such a complicated problem and lead to an outstanding result.

Technology Transfer and Climate Change: Additional Considerations for Implementation under the UNFCCC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Sullivan

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Technology transfer is recognised as playing a central and critical role in the global response to climate change, as embodied in the Unite Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. However, technology transfer is a complex process, and despite numerous attempts to prescribe approaches to optimisation, there remain serious obstacles to its effective operation. The breadth of technologies and range of would-be recipient territories under the climate change regime serve to complicate things even further. Against this background, the Expert Group on Technology Transfer have produced a robust Strategy, which it will now fall to the Technology Mechanism announced in Cancun to implement. However, despite the rigour with which the technology transfer strategy was produced, it is never possible to cover all possible eventualities. It is on this basis that this article presents a number of tactical and strategic issues which may merit further consideration as the implementation process moves forward. At the operational level, such issues include a possible role for a centralised or regional technology procurement effort, the need for greater emphasis on sectoral specific approaches to technology transfer, and a pragmatic approach to reducing the impact of some barriers to transactions by the expedient use of insurance to reduce risk, as opposed to the longer term approach of international standardisation. At the strategic level, there are major issues with regard to prioritisation of resources applied to technology transfer, and in particular the resolution of the tensions existing between achieving sustainable development and the time critical need to achieve climate stabilisation.

Bulgarian clusters under development: Political framework and results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bankova Yovka

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The idea of clusters is not new but nowadays clusters are in a highlight again. Through cluster policies the countries aim at raising their national competitiveness. The paper deals with two objectives - discussion and evaluation of the strategic framework for clusters in Bulgaria and an analysis of the state of Bulgarian clusters. The paper presents briefly general issues concerning the national competitiveness and clusters as being one of the possible instruments to achieve a sustainable competitiveness. The practice of the policy in the EU in the field of clusters is the basis for conclusions about the role of the governments. The second part deals with the strategic framework for the cluster initiatives in Bulgaria and with a selection of indicators about the SMEs and clusters in the country. On this basis a conclusion about the development stage of Bulgarian clusters is derived.

Processes of Personality Development in Adulthood: The TESSERA Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Wrzus, Cornelia; Roberts, Brent W

2017-08-01

The current article presents a theoretical framework of the short- and long-term processes underlying personality development throughout adulthood. The newly developed TESSERA framework posits that long-term personality development occurs due to repeated short-term, situational processes. These short-term processes can be generalized as recursive sequence of Triggering situations, Expectancy, States/State expressions, and Reactions (TESSERA). Reflective and associative processes on TESSERA sequences can lead to personality development (i.e., continuity and lasting changes in explicit and implicit personality characteristics and behavioral patterns). We illustrate how the TESSERA framework facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of normative and differential personality development at various ages during the life span. The TESSERA framework extends previous theories by explicitly linking short- and long-term processes of personality development, by addressing different manifestations of personality, and by being applicable to different personality characteristics, for example, behavioral traits, motivational orientations, or life narratives.

An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

2013-12-01

Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

Naming as Strategic Communication: Understanding Corporate Name Change through an Integrative Framework Encompassing Branding, Identity and Institutional Theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmeltz, Line; Kjeldsen, Anna Karina

2016-01-01

This article presents a framework for understanding corporate name change as strategic communication. From a corporate branding perspective, the choice of a new name can be seen as a wish to stand out from a group of similar organizations. Conversely, from an institutional perspective, name change...

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies

Changing Paradigm for Supporting Aging Individuals' Health and Well-Being: A Framework for Professional Development

Science.gov (United States)

Kemeny, Elizabeth; Mabry, J. Beth

2015-01-01

This study addresses the transfer of training to quality care practices among leisure services professionals who serve older adults by applying the Social Structure and Personality approach, a social psychology framework that accounts for layers of influence in that process. Multiple demographic and policy changes contribute to a need for a…

Material property changes of stainless steels under PWR irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukuya, Koji; Nishioka, Hiromasa; Fujii, Katsuhiko; Kamaya, Masayuki; Miura, Terumitsu; Torimaru, Tadahiko

2009-01-01

Structural integrity of core structural materials is one of the key issues for long and safe operation of pressurized water reactors. The stainless steel components are exposed to neutron irradiation and high-temperature water, which cause significant property changes and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) in some cases. Understanding of irradiation induced material property changes is essential to predict integrity of core components. In the present study, microstructure and microchemistry, mechanical properties, and IASCC behavior were examined in 316 stainless steels irradiated to 1 - 73 dpa in a PWR. Dose-dependent changes of dislocation loops and cavities, grain boundary segregation, tensile properties and fracture mode, deformation behavior, and their interrelation were discussed. Tensile properties and deformation behavior were well coincident with microstructural changes. IASCC susceptibility under slow strain rate tensile tests, IASCC initiation under constant load tests in simulated PWR primary water, and their relationship to material changes were discussed. (author)

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

Teaching Domestic Violence in the New Millennium: Intersectionality as a Framework for Social Change.

Science.gov (United States)

McQueeney, Krista

2016-10-01

This article describes an intersectional approach to teaching about domestic violence (DV), which aims to empower students as critical thinkers and agents of change by merging theory, service learning, self-reflection, and activism. Three intersectional strategies and techniques for teaching about DV are discussed: promoting difference-consciousness, complicating gender-only power frameworks, and organizing for change. The author argues that to empower future generations to end violence, educators should put intersectionality into action through their use of scholarship, teaching methods, and pedagogical authority. Finally, the benefits and challenges of intersectional pedagogy for social justice education are considered. © The Author(s) 2016.

The second Swedish national report on climate changes. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

The Swedish policy and measures for mitigating the climatic change and an inventory of Swedish greenhouse gas emissions are reported. 80% of these emission are carbon dioxide, and the transport sector is responsible for 33% of the emissions. Emissions from the energy sector and industry have been reduced, while the emissions from transports are increasing. The Swedish forests are a carbon sink, with a net accumulation of about 30 M tons/year, which roughly corresponds to half the emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels

4. national communication to the United Nation framework convention on the climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

France, as the other involved participants, has to periodically present its actions in favor of the climatic change fight. This fourth national communication follows a plan defined by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nation Framework Convention on the Climatic Change. This report follows the third national convention published on 2001. It presents in nine chapters the actions realized to reduce and stop the greenhouse effect gases emissions and limit the impacts on the environment and public health: an analytical abstract, the conditions specific to the country, the inventory, the policies and measures, the projections and global effects of the policies and measures, the evaluation of the vulnerability and the climatic changes consequences and the adapted measures, the financial resources and the technology transfer, the research programs, the education formation and awareness of the public. (A.L.B.)

Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, Justin

2013-04-01

surface models. Current research is focused on several aspects, including: 1) quantifying the uncertainties in historic drought reconstructions; 2) analysis of drought propagation through the coupled hydrological/vegetation system; 3) the utility of new data sources such as on the ground sensors and new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, for improved monitoring and prediction, especially in poorly observed regions; 4) advancing predictive skill for all aspects of drought occurrence through diagnosis of the driving mechanisms and feedbacks of historic droughts; and 5) quantification and reduction of uncertainties in future projections of drought under climate change. The steps towards the development of a seamless framework for analysis and prediction in the context of this research are discussed.

Changing in tool steels wear resistance under electron irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braginskaya, A.E.; Manin, V.N.; Makedonskij, A.V.; Mel'nikova, N.A.; Pakchanin, L.M.; Petrenko, P.V.

1983-01-01

The tool steels and alloys wear resistance under dry friction after electron irradiation has been studied. Electron irradiation of a wide variety of steels is shown to increase wear resistance. In this case phase composition and lattice parameters changes are observed both in matrix and carbides. The conclusion is drawn that an appreciable increase of steel wear resistance under electron irradiation can be explained both by carbide phase volume gain and changes in it's composition and the formation of carbide phase submicroscopic heterogeneities and, possibly, complexes of defects

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016

A Framework for Requirement Elicitation, Analysis, Documentation and Prioritisation under Uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Mladenov, V.

2015-01-01

This paper offers a pluralistic framework for coping with requirements in the early phases of design where there is lack of knowledge about a system, its architect and functions. The framework is used to elicit, analyze, document and prioritize the requirements. It embeds probabilistic approach and

A Crisis Framework Applied to Macrosociological Family Changes: Marriage, Divorce, and Occupational Trends Associated with World War II

Science.gov (United States)

Lipman-Blumen, Jean

1975-01-01

A typology of crises is developed to be used with critical aspects of the social system to predict both crisis and postcrisis period role changes. The crisis framework is then applied to macro-changes in family structure in response to an archetypal crisis, World War II. Census data generally support the hypotheses. (Author)

Advancing knowledge on practice change: linking facilitation to the senses framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Julie; Meyer, Julienne; Holman, Cheryl

2013-06-01

To explore the facilitating factors that enabled staff on a rehabilitation ward for older people engage in change activities. The importance of facilitation in practice change is widely acknowledged; however, little nursing research has taken place in relation to its nature. Following identification in the early phases of an action research study that learned helplessness states and the use of socially structured defence techniques were preventing staff on a rehabilitation ward for older people from engaging in practice development, some change was achieved. What facilitated this to take place needed to be explored. An action research approach was used. Data gained from 13 in-depth interviews with staff and managers together with three years of researcher field notes were analysed using thematic analysis. The continuous presence and neutrality of the researcher who worked together with staff on their issues of concern using a flexible ward-based approach, combined with giving staff the opportunity to explore what it was like for them working in this area, were considered key in helping staff to engage with change. Analysis of findings suggests that the senses framework presents a theoretical approach to facilitation that can help staff move out of learned helplessness states and reduce the need for the use of socially structured defence techniques. This study identifies a facilitation approach that enabled staff to engage with practice change. Although carried out in the UK, its findings have wider relevance through the application of a theoretical perspective for practice change facilitation that has not before been considered in this literature, and which is likely to be of interest to those involved in practice change internationally. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Hidden impacts of ocean acidification to live and dead coral framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Hennige, S J; Wicks, L C; Kamenos, N A; Perna, G; Findlay, H S; Roberts, J M

2015-08-22

Cold-water corals, such as Lophelia pertusa, are key habitat-forming organisms found throughout the world's oceans to 3000 m deep. The complex three-dimensional framework made by these vulnerable marine ecosystems support high biodiversity and commercially important species. Given their importance, a key question is how both the living and the dead framework will fare under projected climate change. Here, we demonstrate that over 12 months L. pertusa can physiologically acclimate to increased CO2, showing sustained net calcification. However, their new skeletal structure changes and exhibits decreased crystallographic and molecular-scale bonding organization. Although physiological acclimatization was evident, we also demonstrate that there is a negative correlation between increasing CO2 levels and breaking strength of exposed framework (approx. 20-30% weaker after 12 months), meaning the exposed bases of reefs will be less effective 'load-bearers', and will become more susceptible to bioerosion and mechanical damage by 2100. © 2015 The Authors.

A Comparison between Linear IRT Observed-Score Equating and Levine Observed-Score Equating under the Generalized Kernel Equating Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Haiwen

2012-01-01

In this article, linear item response theory (IRT) observed-score equating is compared under a generalized kernel equating framework with Levine observed-score equating for nonequivalent groups with anchor test design. Interestingly, these two equating methods are closely related despite being based on different methodologies. Specifically, when…

Integrated and Sustainable Water Management of Red-Thai Binh Rivers System Under Change

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, M.; Anghileri, D.; Castelletti, A.; Mason, E.; Micotti, M.; Soncini-Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-12-01

. These solutions are then evaluated under various scenarios of climate change and projected socio-economic conditions to identify their vulnerabilities and, possibly, to design improved operating policies, which are more robust to the future uncertainties.

Regulatory Framework of Safety for HTGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huh, Chang Wook; Suh, Nam Duk

2011-01-01

Recent accident in Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan makes big impacts on the future of nuclear business. Many countries are changing their nuclear projects and increased safety of nuclear plants is asked for from the public. Without providing safety the society accepts, it might be almost impossible to build new plants further. In this sense high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) which is under development needs to be licensed reflecting this new expectation regarding safety. It means we should have higher level of safety goal and a systematic regulatory framework to assure the safety. In our previous paper, we evaluated the current safety goal and design practice in view of this new safety expectation after Fukushima accident. It was argued that a top-down approach starting from safety goal is necessary to develop safety requirements or to assure safety. Thus we need to propose an ultimate safety goal public accepts and then establish a systematic regulatory framework. In this paper we are going to provide a conceptual regulatory framework to guarantee the safety of HTGR. Section 2 discusses the recent trend of IAEA safety requirements and then summarize the HTGR design approach. Incorporating these discussions, we propose a conceptual framework of regulation for safety of HTGR

Effects of environmental change on agriculture, nutrition and health: A framework with a focus on fruits and vegetables [version 2; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna L. Tuomisto

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Environmental changes are likely to affect agricultural production over the next  decades. The interactions between environmental change, agricultural yields and crop quality, and the critical pathways to future diets and health outcomes are largely undefined. There are currently no quantitative models to test the impact of multiple environmental changes on nutrition and health outcomes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we developed a framework to link the multiple interactions between environmental change, agricultural productivity and crop quality, population-level food availability, dietary intake and health outcomes, with a specific focus on fruits and vegetables. The main components of the framework consist of: i socio-economic and societal factors, ii environmental change stressors, iii interventions and policies, iv food system activities, v food and nutrition security, and vi health and well-being outcomes. The framework, based on currently available evidence, provides an overview of the multidimensional and complex interactions with feedback between environmental change, production of fruits and vegetables, diets and health, and forms the analytical basis for future modelling and scenario testing.

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Udie

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1 a preliminary scoping activity; (2 the vulnerability assessment; and (3 mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

2014-01-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

A framework for the organizational assumptions underlying safety culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Packer, Charles

2002-01-01

The safety culture of the nuclear organization can be addressed at the three levels of culture proposed by Edgar Schein. The industry literature provides a great deal of insight at the artefact and espoused value levels, although as yet it remains somewhat disorganized. There is, however, an overall lack of understanding of the assumption level of safety culture. This paper describes a possible framework for conceptualizing the assumption level, suggesting that safety culture is grounded in unconscious beliefs about the nature of the safety problem, its solution and how to organize to achieve the solution. Using this framework, the organization can begin to uncover the assumptions at play in its normal operation, decisions and events and, if necessary, engage in a process to shift them towards assumptions more supportive of a strong safety culture. (author)

Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

2000-01-01

be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

Science.gov (United States)

Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

Learners' strategies for reconstructing cognitive frameworks and navigating conceptual change from prior conception to consensual genetics knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Parrott, Annette M.

Problem. Science teachers are charged with preparing students to become scientifically literate individuals. Teachers are given curriculum that specifies the knowledge that students should come away with; however, they are not necessarily aware of the knowledge with which the student arrives or how best to help them navigate between the two knowledge states. Educators must be aware, not only of where their students are conceptually, but how their students move from their prior knowledge and naive theories, to scientifically acceptable theories. The understanding of how students navigate this course has the potential to revolutionize educational practices. Methods. This study explored how five 9th grade biology students reconstructed their cognitive frameworks and navigated conceptual change from prior conception to consensual genetics knowledge. The research questions investigated were: (1) how do students in the process of changing their naive science theories to accepted science theories describe their journey from prior knowledge to current conception, and (2) what are the methods that students utilize to bridge the gap between alternate and consensual science conceptions to effect conceptual change. Qualitative and quantitative methods were employed to gather and analyze the data. In depth, semi-structured interviews formed the primary data for probing the context and details of students' conceptual change experience. Primary interview data was coded by thematic analysis. Results and discussion. This study revealed information about students' perceived roles in learning, the role of articulation in the conceptual change process, and ways in which a community of learners aids conceptual change. It was ascertained that students see their role in learning primarily as repeating information until they could add that information to their knowledge. Students are more likely to consider challenges to their conceptual frameworks and be more motivated to become active

Movement of the lacrimal canalicular wall under intracanalicular pressure changes observed with dacryoendoscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kakizaki, Hirohiko; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Mito, Hidenori; Nakamura, Yasuhisa

2015-01-01

Movement of the lacrimal canalicular wall has been speculated to occur during blinking. Movement of the common internal ostium has been observed under nasal endoscopy, and pressure changes in the lacrimal canalicular cavity have been observed with a pressure sensor; however, lacrimal canalicular wall movement under pressure changes has not been observed. To examine movement of the lacrimal canalicular wall under intracanalicular pressure changes using dacryoendoscopy. The authors examined 20 obstruction-free lacrimal canaliculi in 10 patients. A dacryoendoscope was inserted, and water was poured into the intracanalicular cavity via the dacryoendoscope's water channel. The water was then poured or suctioned to cause positive or negative pressure changes in the intracanalicular cavity, and movement of the lacrimal canalicular wall was examined. The lacrimal canalicular wall moved flexibly with pressure changes. Under positive pressure, the intracanalicular cavity was dilated; however, it narrowed under negative pressure. The extent of movement was more dramatic in the common canalicular portion than the proximal canalicular portion. Intracanalicular pressure changes cause movement of the lacrimal canalicular wall. There was a consistent relationship between intracanalicular cavity changes and pressure changes, possibly contributing to lacrimal drainage of the canaliculus.

THE FACTOR OF ENERGY-INFORMATION SECURITY IN THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION-RELATED CHANGES

OpenAIRE

Alexey Viktorovich SUHORUKHIH

2015-01-01

The paper examined the grounds having involved global social and cultural changes, and emphasized the precedence taken by an energy-information component to the geopolitical dynamics of the civilization continuum. The study emphasized the relevance of new facets in social and cultural insight urged to respond to challenges of direct mental hazards emerging over the world, and requirement of energy-information security the civilization has sought for, assumed to be the framework for considerin...

A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angus J Ferraro

Full Text Available Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

A Risk-Based Framework for Assessing the Effectiveness of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Ferraro, Angus J.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Highwood, Eleanor J.

2014-01-01

Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product. PMID:24533155

Altering the Climate of Poverty under Climate Change : the Forests ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

This project aims to underscore the importance of the Congo basin forests in climate ... Shaping forest safety nets with markets : adaptation to climate change under changing roles ... Driving vaccine innovations to improve lives and livelihoods.

Rebellion and Rule under Consular Optics: Changing Ways of Seeing the China-Vietnam Borderlands, 1874–1879

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradley Camp Davis

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This article contributes to the continuing discussion concerning the changing relationships between China and its neighbors in the nineteenth century. Focusing on Vietnam, a country within the metaphorical framework of the “tribute system,” it analyzes the complex range of relationships in the borderlands during the 1870s. Following the establishment of French consular offices in northern Vietnam, rebellions, counterinsurgency, communities, and commerce in the borderlands fell under a new kind of official gaze, one that ultimately provided self-serving justification to advocates of French imperialism in Southeast Asia. As emblems of foreign influence, French consulates soon became elements in factional struggles that unfolded within the Vietnamese bureaucracy over the role of China in Vietnam, the employment of surrendered bandits as officials, and borderlands administration.

Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michele-Lee Moore

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

2013-12-01

As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

National Culture and Business Model Change - A Framework for Successful Expansions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stenskov, Lea Houmark; Lueg, Rainer

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to analyse how a company’s business model needs to be adjusted if it is expanded into another cultural context. For this, we use the example of changes in the business model of a Danish ITcompany opening a new office in the U.S. Using a single case study......, we integrate the concepts of business models (Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2005) and national culture (Hofstede, 1980). Our findings explain why and how adjustments in the business model are necessary regarding the company’s communication, team composition, and customer involvement in projects....... As to implications, we construct a matrix combining business models and national culture that other multinational companies can use to achieve better understanding of their business model in different national contexts....

Hybrid modelling framework by using mathematics-based and information-based methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaboussi, J; Kim, J; Elnashai, A

2010-01-01

Mathematics-based computational mechanics involves idealization in going from the observed behaviour of a system into mathematical equations representing the underlying mechanics of that behaviour. Idealization may lead mathematical models that exclude certain aspects of the complex behaviour that may be significant. An alternative approach is data-centric modelling that constitutes a fundamental shift from mathematical equations to data that contain the required information about the underlying mechanics. However, purely data-centric methods often fail for infrequent events and large state changes. In this article, a new hybrid modelling framework is proposed to improve accuracy in simulation of real-world systems. In the hybrid framework, a mathematical model is complemented by information-based components. The role of informational components is to model aspects which the mathematical model leaves out. The missing aspects are extracted and identified through Autoprogressive Algorithms. The proposed hybrid modelling framework has a wide range of potential applications for natural and engineered systems. The potential of the hybrid methodology is illustrated through modelling highly pinched hysteretic behaviour of beam-to-column connections in steel frames.

A thermodynamic framework for thermo-chemo-elastic interactions in chemically active materials

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, XiaoLong; Zhong, Zheng

2017-08-01

In this paper, a general thermodynamic framework is developed to describe the thermo-chemo-mechanical interactions in elastic solids undergoing mechanical deformation, imbibition of diffusive chemical species, chemical reactions and heat exchanges. Fully coupled constitutive relations and evolving laws for irreversible fluxes are provided based on entropy imbalance and stoichiometry that governs reactions. The framework manifests itself with a special feature that the change of Helmholtz free energy is attributed to separate contributions of the diffusion-swelling process and chemical reaction-dilation process. Both the extent of reaction and the concentrations of diffusive species are taken as independent state variables, which describe the reaction-activated responses with underlying variation of microstructures and properties of a material in an explicit way. A specialized isothermal formulation for isotropic materials is proposed that can properly account for volumetric constraints from material incompressibility under chemo-mechanical loadings, in which inhomogeneous deformation is associated with reaction and diffusion under various kinetic time scales. This framework can be easily applied to model the transient volumetric swelling of a solid caused by imbibition of external chemical species and simultaneous chemical dilation arising from reactions between the diffusing species and the solid.

Precise Object Tracking under Deformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saad, M.H.

2010-01-01

The precise object tracking is an essential issue in several serious applications such as; robot vision, automated surveillance (civil and military), inspection, biomedical image analysis, video coding, motion segmentation, human-machine interface, visualization, medical imaging, traffic systems, satellite imaging etc. This framework focuses on the precise object tracking under deformation such as scaling, rotation, noise, blurring and change of illumination. This research is a trail to solve these serious problems in visual object tracking by which the quality of the overall system will be improved. Developing a three dimensional (3D) geometrical model to determine the current pose of an object and predict its future location based on FIR model learned by the OLS. This framework presents a robust ranging technique to track a visual target instead of the traditional expensive ranging sensors. The presented research work is applied to real video stream and achieved high precession results. xiiiThe precise object tracking is an essential issue in several serious applications such as; robot vision, automated surveillance (civil and military), inspection, biomedical image analysis, video coding, motion segmentation, human-machine interface, visualization, medical imaging, traffic systems, satellite imaging etc. This framework focuses on the precise object tracking under deformation such as scaling, rotation, noise, blurring and change of illumination. This research is a trail to solve these serious problems in visual object tracking by which the quality of the overall system will be improved. Developing a three dimensional (3D) geometrical model to determine the current pose of an object and predict its future location based on FIR model learned by the OLS. This framework presents a robust ranging technique to track a visual target instead of the traditional expensive ranging sensors. The presented research work is applied to real video stream and achieved high

Comparison of feature extraction methods within a spatio-temporal land cover change detection framework

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kleynhans, W

2011-07-01

Full Text Available OF FEATURE EXTRACTION METHODS WITHIN A SPATIO-TEMPORAL LAND COVER CHANGE DETECTION FRAMEWORK ??W. Kleynhans,, ??B.P. Salmon, ?J.C. Olivier, ?K.J. Wessels, ?F. van den Bergh ? Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engi- neering University of Pretoria, South... Bergh, and K. Steenkamp, ?Improving land cover class separation using an extended Kalman filter on MODIS NDVI time series data,? IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 381?385, Apr. 2010. ...

Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological conditions. Ali A Kherd, Nawal Helmi, Khadijah Saeed Balamash, Taha A Kumosani, Shareefa A AL-Ghamdi, Qari M, Etimad A Huwait, Soonham S Yaghmoor, Alaama Nabil, Maryam A AL-Ghamdi, Said S Moselhy ...

The Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene: a systematic review of behavioural models and a framework for designing and evaluating behaviour change interventions in infrastructure-restricted settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Dreibelbis, Robert; Winch, Peter J; Leontsini, Elli; Hulland, Kristyna R S; Ram, Pavani K; Unicomb, Leanne; Luby, Stephen P

2013-10-26

Promotion and provision of low-cost technologies that enable improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices are seen as viable solutions for reducing high rates of morbidity and mortality due to enteric illnesses in low-income countries. A number of theoretical models, explanatory frameworks, and decision-making models have emerged which attempt to guide behaviour change interventions related to WASH. The design and evaluation of such interventions would benefit from a synthesis of this body of theory informing WASH behaviour change and maintenance. We completed a systematic review of existing models and frameworks through a search of related articles available in PubMed and in the grey literature. Information on the organization of behavioural determinants was extracted from the references that fulfilled the selection criteria and synthesized. Results from this synthesis were combined with other relevant literature, and from feedback through concurrent formative and pilot research conducted in the context of two cluster-randomized trials on the efficacy of WASH behaviour change interventions to inform the development of a framework to guide the development and evaluation of WASH interventions: the Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (IBM-WASH). We identified 15 WASH-specific theoretical models, behaviour change frameworks, or programmatic models, of which 9 addressed our review questions. Existing models under-represented the potential role of technology in influencing behavioural outcomes, focused on individual-level behavioural determinants, and had largely ignored the role of the physical and natural environment. IBM-WASH attempts to correct this by acknowledging three dimensions (Contextual Factors, Psychosocial Factors, and Technology Factors) that operate on five-levels (structural, community, household, individual, and habitual). A number of WASH-specific models and frameworks exist, yet with some limitations. The IBM

The Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene: a systematic review of behavioural models and a framework for designing and evaluating behaviour change interventions in infrastructure-restricted settings

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Promotion and provision of low-cost technologies that enable improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices are seen as viable solutions for reducing high rates of morbidity and mortality due to enteric illnesses in low-income countries. A number of theoretical models, explanatory frameworks, and decision-making models have emerged which attempt to guide behaviour change interventions related to WASH. The design and evaluation of such interventions would benefit from a synthesis of this body of theory informing WASH behaviour change and maintenance. Methods We completed a systematic review of existing models and frameworks through a search of related articles available in PubMed and in the grey literature. Information on the organization of behavioural determinants was extracted from the references that fulfilled the selection criteria and synthesized. Results from this synthesis were combined with other relevant literature, and from feedback through concurrent formative and pilot research conducted in the context of two cluster-randomized trials on the efficacy of WASH behaviour change interventions to inform the development of a framework to guide the development and evaluation of WASH interventions: the Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (IBM-WASH). Results We identified 15 WASH-specific theoretical models, behaviour change frameworks, or programmatic models, of which 9 addressed our review questions. Existing models under-represented the potential role of technology in influencing behavioural outcomes, focused on individual-level behavioural determinants, and had largely ignored the role of the physical and natural environment. IBM-WASH attempts to correct this by acknowledging three dimensions (Contextual Factors, Psychosocial Factors, and Technology Factors) that operate on five-levels (structural, community, household, individual, and habitual). Conclusions A number of WASH-specific models and frameworks

Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-04-01

This report accompanies the Commission's White Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change. Its objective is to raise the profile of adaptation and to build a coherent approach at institutional level across the EU. The proposed EU Framework would complement and re-enforce Member States actions, particularly through existing funding channels, the provision of accurate climate information and appropriate guidance, ensuring that adaptation is integrated in important EU policy sectors and guaranteeing solidarity between countries/regions. The White Paper adopts a phased approach: Phase 1 (2009-2012) will lay the ground work for the preparation of a more comprehensive adaptation strategy for the EU to be implemented during phase 2 commencing in 2012. This report is first and foremost a taking-stock exercise, reviewing the literature and gathering the views of services and stakeholders, on the basis of the 2007 Green Paper. It is also meant to serve as a reference framework to develop an EU adaptation policy in future. It is a cross-cutting exercise and it is complemented by sectoral papers on water, coasts and marine issues, agriculture and health. Chapter 1 explains briefly the process for the elaboration of both documents since the publication of the Green Paper on Adaptation in 2007 and the broad internal and external consultation. Chapter 2 defines key concepts such as impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. It identifies the uncertainties and the knowledge gaps to be filled to establish priorities and monitor further action. It provides an overview of the vulnerability of EU sectors, regions or groups, to Climate Change impacts. Taking into account how national, regional and sectoral adaptation strategies already address some of these challenges, it evaluates the scope for EU action, focusing on mainstreaming adaptation into EU policies and on the necessary co-ordination of the different policy levels. Chapter 3 describes the objectives of the IA and explains how

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

2016-11-01

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

VoIP under the EU regulatory framework : preventing foreclosure?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sadowski, B.M.; Straathof, B.

2005-01-01

In June 2004, the European Commission (EC) issued an "Information and Consultation Document" (European Commission 2004) that discussed how the Regulatory Framework of the European Union (EU) should be adapted to accommodate Voice over IP (VoIP) and invited relevant parties to comment on the

Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Huber

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

A Simulation Modeling Framework to Optimize Programs Using Financial Incentives to Motivate Health Behavior Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

2016-01-01

While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: To generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated "demand curves" capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated: that is, the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. © The Author(s) 2015.

A benchmarking framework to evaluate business climate change risks: A practical tool suitable for investors decision-making process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaos Demertzidis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A fundamental concern for the investor community is to identify techniques which would allow them to evaluate and highlight the most probable financial risks that could affect the value of their asset portfolio. Traditional techniques primarily focus on estimating certain conventional social-economic factors and many fail to cover an array of climate change risks. A limited number of institutional documents present, to a somewhat limited extent, some general-defined types of business climate change risks, which are deemed most likely to influence the value of an investors’ portfolio. However, it is crucial that stakeholders of businesses and scholars consider a wider range of information so as to assist investors in their decision making. This paper aims at establishing a new framework to operationalize and quantify an array of business climate change risks to provide more comprehensive and tangible information on non-traditional risks. This framework relies on the benchmarking – scoring systems and Global Reporting Initiative (GRI guidelines, and is applied to various Greek businesses that are certified by Environmental Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS.

The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

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Patrick Steyaert

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

Developing and Applying a Multi-scale Framework to Study the Relationship between Landscapes and Coastal Waters in the Texas Gulf Coast in a Changing Climate

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Yang, Z. L.; McClelland, J. W.; Su, H.; Cai, X.; Lin, P.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Griffin, C. G.; Turner, E.; Maidment, D. R.; Montagna, P.

2014-12-01

This study seeks to improve our understanding of how upland landscapes and coastal waters, which are connected by watersheds, respond to changes in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles resulting from changes in climate, local weather patterns, and land use. This paper will report our progress in the following areas. (1) The Noah-MP land surface model is augmented to include the soil nitrogen leaching and plants fixation and uptake of nitrogen. (2) We have evaluated temperature, precipitation and runoff change (2039-2048 relative to 1989-1998) patterns in Texas under the A2 emission scenario using the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) product. (3) We have linked a GIS-based river routing model (RAPID) and a GIS-based nitrogen input dataset (TX-ANB). The modeling framework was conducted for total nitrogen (TN) load estimation in the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins. (4) Beginning in July 2011, the Colorado, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces rivers have been sampled on a monthly basis. Sampling continued until November 2013. We also have established an on-going citizen science sampling program. We have contacted the Lower Colorado River Authority and the Texas Stream Team at Texas State University to solicit participation in our program. (5) We have tested multiple scenarios of nutrient contribution to South Texas bays. We are modeling the behavior of these systems under stress due to climate change such as less overall freshwater inflow, increased inorganic nutrient loading, and more frequent large storms.

Preliminary Framework for Human-Automation Collaboration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oxstrand, Johanna Helene; Le Blanc, Katya Lee; Spielman, Zachary Alexander

2015-01-01

The Department of Energy's Advanced Reactor Technologies Program sponsors research, development and deployment activities through its Next Generation Nuclear Plant, Advanced Reactor Concepts, and Advanced Small Modular Reactor (aSMR) Programs to promote safety, technical, economical, and environmental advancements of innovative Generation IV nuclear energy technologies. The Human Automation Collaboration (HAC) Research Project is located under the aSMR Program, which identifies developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces as one of four key research areas. It is expected that the new nuclear power plant designs will employ technology significantly more advanced than the analog systems in the existing reactor fleet as well as utilizing automation to a greater extent. Moving towards more advanced technology and more automation does not necessary imply more efficient and safer operation of the plant. Instead, a number of concerns about how these technologies will affect human performance and the overall safety of the plant need to be addressed. More specifically, it is important to investigate how the operator and the automation work as a team to ensure effective and safe plant operation, also known as the human-automation collaboration (HAC). The focus of the HAC research is to understand how various characteristics of automation (such as its reliability, processes, and modes) effect an operator's use and awareness of plant conditions. In other words, the research team investigates how to best design the collaboration between the operators and the automated systems in a manner that has the greatest positive impact on overall plant performance and reliability. This report addresses the Department of Energy milestone M4AT-15IN2302054, Complete Preliminary Framework for Human-Automation Collaboration, by discussing the two phased development of a preliminary HAC framework. The framework developed in the first phase was used as

Preliminary Framework for Human-Automation Collaboration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oxstrand, Johanna Helene [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Le Blanc, Katya Lee [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spielman, Zachary Alexander [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Technologies Program sponsors research, development and deployment activities through its Next Generation Nuclear Plant, Advanced Reactor Concepts, and Advanced Small Modular Reactor (aSMR) Programs to promote safety, technical, economical, and environmental advancements of innovative Generation IV nuclear energy technologies. The Human Automation Collaboration (HAC) Research Project is located under the aSMR Program, which identifies developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces as one of four key research areas. It is expected that the new nuclear power plant designs will employ technology significantly more advanced than the analog systems in the existing reactor fleet as well as utilizing automation to a greater extent. Moving towards more advanced technology and more automation does not necessary imply more efficient and safer operation of the plant. Instead, a number of concerns about how these technologies will affect human performance and the overall safety of the plant need to be addressed. More specifically, it is important to investigate how the operator and the automation work as a team to ensure effective and safe plant operation, also known as the human-automation collaboration (HAC). The focus of the HAC research is to understand how various characteristics of automation (such as its reliability, processes, and modes) effect an operator’s use and awareness of plant conditions. In other words, the research team investigates how to best design the collaboration between the operators and the automated systems in a manner that has the greatest positive impact on overall plant performance and reliability. This report addresses the Department of Energy milestone M4AT-15IN2302054, Complete Preliminary Framework for Human-Automation Collaboration, by discussing the two phased development of a preliminary HAC framework. The framework developed in the first phase was used as the

A GIS framework for the assessment of tick impact on human health in a changing climate.

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Estrada-Peña, Agustin; Venzal, José M

2007-05-01

A framework to evaluate the impact of ticks on human health under various scenarios of climate change is proposed. The purpose is not to provide a comprehensive plan (e.g. the economic impact of ticks on human society is not included), instead we wish to describe a series of indices that would be helpful by obtaining homogeneous comparisons of impact and vulnerability exerted by ticks in different regions, countries or continents, using normalized sets of population, vegetation, climate and physical attributes of the territory. Three tick species, i.e. Dermacentor marginatus, Rhipicephalus turanicus and Hyalomma marginatum, have been traced over the territory of Spain to further explain the computation of these indices. The discussion is based on tick habitat suitability, used as a measure of the abiotic (climate) fitness of the habitat for the species in question, and the sensitivity of each tick species to the rate of change of habitat suitability with respect to climate change. The impact is the rate of change in habitat suitability weighted with a fuzzy logic function evaluating the total number of people in an area, percent of rural population and accessibility of the geographical divisions (expressed as hexagons with a 10 km radius) used in the study. The different climate scenarios evaluated in relation to ticks show that the north-western part of Spain would suffer the greatest impact in case the mean temperature would increase, while the Mediterranean region would suffer the highest impact if temperatures decreased. Vulnerability, based on the sanitary structure of the territory and on the impact on human activities due to the change in tick distribution and abundance, is proposed as a measure of adaptation of society to these climate scenarios. The cost is evaluated as a function of land use and tick habitat suitability in a buffer zone surrounding each geographic division. All indices proposed have been obtained by search of common and/or publicly

Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

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Shoo, L.P.; Olson, D.H.; Mcmenamin, S.K.; Murray, K.A.; Van Sluys, M.; Donnelly, M.A.; Stratford, D.; Terhivuo, J.; Merino-Viteri, A.; Herbert, S.M.; Bishop, P.J.; Corn, P.S.; Dovey, L.; Griffiths, R.A.; Lowe, K.; Mahony, M.; McCallum, H.; Shuker, J.D.; Simpkins, C.; Skerratt, L.F.; Williams, S.E.; Hero, J.-M.

2011-01-01

1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.

Equipping providers with principles, knowledge and skills to successfully integrate behaviour change counselling into practice: a primary healthcare framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Vallis, M; Lee-Baggley, D; Sampalli, T; Ryer, A; Ryan-Carson, S; Kumanan, K; Edwards, L

2018-01-01

There is an urgent need for healthcare providers and healthcare systems to support productive interactions with patients that promote sustained health behaviour change in order to improve patient and population health outcomes. Behaviour change theories and interventions have been developed and evaluated in experimental contexts; however, most healthcare providers have little training, and therefore low confidence in, behaviour change counselling. Particularly important is how to integrate theory and method to support healthcare providers to engage in behaviour change counselling competently. In this article, we describe a general training model developed from theory, evidence, experience and stakeholder engagement. This model will set the stage for future evaluation research on training needed to achieve competency, sustainability of competency, as well as effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of training in supporting behaviour change. A framework to support competency based training in behaviour change counselling is described in this article. This framework is designed to be integrative, sustainable, scalable and capable of being evaluated in follow-up studies. Effective training in behaviour change counselling is critical to meet the current and future healthcare needs of patients living with, or at risk of, chronic diseases. Increasing competency in establishing change-based relationships, assessing and promoting readiness to change, implementing behaviour modification and addressing psychosocial issues will be value added to the healthcare system. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrofitting Non-Cognitive-Diagnostic Reading Assessment under the Generalized DINA Model Framework

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Chen, Huilin; Chen, Jinsong

2016-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are psychometric models developed mainly to assess examinees' specific strengths and weaknesses in a set of skills or attributes within a domain. By adopting the Generalized-DINA model framework, the recently developed general modeling framework, we attempted to retrofit the PISA reading assessments, a…

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

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Smith, James A.; Blattner, Tim; Messmer, Peter

2010-01-01

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Roundtable on health and climate change : Strategic plan on health and climate change : a framework for collaborative action, final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-03-01

Climate change will have a significant impact on human health, arising from direct effects such as increased extreme weather events, and indirect effects resulting from changes in ecological systems on which humans depend. This paper is a compilation of discussions and input from the many stakeholders and representatives that contributed to the Roundtable on Health and Climate Change held in September 2000. The goal of the Roundtable was to raise the profile and inform policy makers of the health issues associated with climate change and to engage the health sector in the National Implementation Strategy on Climate Change. The strategic framework for collaborative action in addressing the health implications of climate change were presented. The strategic plan is based on the following key principles: (1) incorporating both mitigation and adaptation in all aspects of the plan, (2) maximizing co-benefits, associated with climate change and other key health priorities, (3) building on existing capacity within governments and non-governmental organizations, (4) forming multi-disciplinary alliances, (5) emphasizing collaboration and cooperation, and (6) recognizing the shared responsibility for action on climate change. The major recommendation from the Roundtable was to urge governments to place a high priority on the implementation of measures that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, thereby improving health of Canadians. It was recommended that governments should insist that all analyses and modeling of climate change policy options include the assessment and consideration of health implications. 1 tab

E-health readiness assessment framework in iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

2012-01-01

Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well.

E-Health Readiness Assessment Framework in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

2012-01-01

Background: Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. Methods: The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. Results: The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). Conclusion: The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well. PMID:23304661

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Economic Assessment of Flood Control Facilities under Climate Uncertainty: A Case of Nakdong River, South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyeongseok Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change contributes to enhanced flood damage that has been increasing for the last several decades. Understanding climate uncertainties improves adaptation strategies used for investment in flood control facilities. This paper proposes an investment decision framework for one flood zone to cope with future severe climate impacts. This framework can help policy-makers investigate the cost of future damage and conduct an economic assessment using real options under future climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology provides local municipalities with an adaptation strategy for flood control facilities in a flood zone. Using the proposed framework, the flood prevention facilities in the Nakdong River Basin of South Korea was selected as a case study site to analyze the economic assessment of the investments for flood control facilities. Using representative concentration pathway (RCP climate scenarios, the cost of future flood damage to 23 local municipalities was calculated, and investment strategies for adaptation were analyzed. The project option value was determined by executing an option to invest in an expansion that would adapt to floods under climate change. The results of the case study showed that the proposed flood facilities are economically feasible under both scenarios used. The framework is anticipated to present guidance for establishing investment strategies for flood control facilities of a flood zone in multiple municipalities’ settings.

Supervisory Styles: A Contingency Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Boehe, Dirk Michael

2016-01-01

While the contingent nature of doctoral supervision has been acknowledged, the literature on supervisory styles has yet to deliver a theory-based contingency framework. A contingency framework can assist supervisors and research students in identifying appropriate supervisory styles under varying circumstances. The conceptual study reported here…

Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

Science.gov (United States)

G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

2015-01-01

Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

A Comparative Study of Spatial Aggregation Methodologies under the BioEarth Framework

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Chandrasekharan, B.; Rajagopalan, K.; Malek, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.

2014-12-01

The increasing probability of water resource scarcity due to climate change has highlighted the need for adopting an economic focus in modelling water resource uses. Hydro-economic models, developed by integrating economic optimization with biophysical crop models, are driven by the economic value of water, revealing it's most efficient uses and helping policymakers evaluate different water management strategies. One of the challenges in integrating biophysical models with economic models is the difference in the spatial scales in which they operate. Biophysical models that provide crop production functions typically run at smaller scale than economic models, and substantial spatial aggregation is required. However, any aggregation introduces a bias, i.e., a discrepancy between the functional value at the higher spatial scale and the value at the spatial scale of the aggregated units. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of net economic benefits in the Yakima River basin (YRB) to different spatial aggregation methods for crop production functions. The spatial aggregation methodologies that we compare involve agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and aggregation levels that reflect water management regimes (e.g. irrigation districts). Aggregation bias can distort the underlying data and result in extreme solutions. In order to avoid this we use an economic optimization model that incorporates the synthetic and historical crop mixes approach (Onal & Chen, 2012). This restricts the solutions between the weighted averages of historical and simulated feasible planting decisions, with the weights associated with crop mixes being treated as endogenous variables. This study is focused on 5 major irrigation districts of the YRB in the Pacific Northwest US. The biophysical modeling framework we use, BioEarth, includes the coupled hydrology and crop growth model, VIC-Cropsyst and an economic optimization model. Preliminary findings indicate that the standard approach

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tereza C Giannini

Full Text Available Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata, a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC. We then used this information, the bee's flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Giannini, Tereza C.; Tambosi, Leandro R.; Acosta, André L.; Jaffé, Rodolfo; Saraiva, Antonio M.; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L.; Metzger, Jean Paul

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee’s flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Giannini, Tereza C; Tambosi, Leandro R; Acosta, André L; Jaffé, Rodolfo; Saraiva, Antonio M; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L; Metzger, Jean Paul

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee's flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

Climate indices of Iran under climate change

OpenAIRE

alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

2009-01-01

Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

Principal Leadership and Teacher Motivation under High-Stakes Accountability Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Finnigan, Kara S.

2010-01-01

This article examines principal leadership and teacher motivation in schools under accountability sanctions. The conceptual framework is grounded in research on expectancy theory and transformational leadership. The study involves a survey of Chicago teachers and indicates that principal instructional leadership and support for change are…

Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc Hero

2011-01-01

Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...

Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

2015-08-01

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Toward an enhanced Bayesian estimation framework for multiphase flow soft-sensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Xiaodong; Lorentzen, Rolf J; Stordal, Andreas S; Nævdal, Geir

2014-01-01

In this work the authors study the multiphase flow soft-sensing problem based on a previously established framework. There are three functional modules in this framework, namely, a transient well flow model that describes the response of certain physical variables in a well, for instance, temperature, velocity and pressure, to the flow rates entering and leaving the well zones; a Markov jump process that is designed to capture the potential abrupt changes in the flow rates; and an estimation method that is adopted to estimate the underlying flow rates based on the measurements from the physical sensors installed in the well. In the previous studies, the variances of the flow rates in the Markov jump process are chosen manually. To fill this gap, in the current work two automatic approaches are proposed in order to optimize the variance estimation. Through a numerical example, we show that, when the estimation framework is used in conjunction with these two proposed variance-estimation approaches, it can achieve reasonable performance in terms of matching both the measurements of the physical sensors and the true underlying flow rates. (paper)

The art framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C; Kowalkowski, J; Paterno, M; Fischler, M; Garren, L; Lu, Q

2012-01-01

Future “Intensity Frontier” experiments at Fermilab are likely to be conducted by smaller collaborations, with fewer scientists, than is the case for recent “Energy Frontier” experiments. art is a C++ event-processing framework designed with the needs of such experiments in mind. An evolution from the framework of the CMS experiment, art was designed and implemented to be usable by multiple experiments without imposing undue maintenance effort requirements on either the art developers or experiments using it. We describe the key requirements and features of art and the rationale behind evolutionary changes, additions and simplifications with respect to the CMS framework. In addition, our package distribution system and our collaborative model with respect to the multiple experiments using art helps keep the maintenance burden low. We also describe in-progress and future enhancements to the framework, including strategies we are using to allow multi-threaded use of the art framework in today's multi- and many-core environments.

Change Management: A Theoretical Framework

OpenAIRE

Yasemin KÜÇÜKÖZKAN

2015-01-01

Organizations are dynamic and open systems that exist in mutual affection with their environment and deliver output to environment from which they receive inputs. Organizations need to make organizational regulations against internal and external occurring changes. Therefore, organizations have to gain new features and abilities in order to get along with the change. Today, changes we face in all areas affect also health system. The increase of the society’s health level is attributed to well...

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

OpenAIRE

Anghileri, D.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2011-01-01

While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our ...

Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

2012-01-01

Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

Changing Places, Changing Spaces? Towards Understanding Teacher Education through Space-Time Frameworks

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Jean

2012-01-01

This article draws together theoretical ideas from studies of space/spatiality and the history of teacher education. These ideas form a theoretical framework through which to analyse the findings from a small-scale ethnographic study of the geographical relocations made by two university schools of education in England. Data collection instruments…

A framework for consciousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Crick, Francis; Koch, Christof

2003-02-01

Here we summarize our present approach to the problem of consciousness. After an introduction outlining our general strategy, we describe what is meant by the term 'framework' and set it out under ten headings. This framework offers a coherent scheme for explaining the neural correlates of (visual) consciousness in terms of competing cellular assemblies. Most of the ideas we favor have been suggested before, but their combination is original. We also outline some general experimental approaches to the problem and, finally, acknowledge some relevant aspects of the brain that have been left out of the proposed framework.

An Analytical Framework for the Steady State Impact of Carbonate Compensation on Atmospheric CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Omta, Anne Willem; Ferrari, Raffaele; McGee, David

2018-04-01

The deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration impacts the fraction of the marine calcium carbonate production that is buried in sediments. This gives rise to the carbonate compensation feedback, which is thought to restore the deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration on multimillennial timescales. We formulate an analytical framework to investigate the impact of carbonate compensation under various changes in the carbon cycle relevant for anthropogenic change and glacial cycles. Using this framework, we show that carbonate compensation amplifies by 15-20% changes in atmospheric CO2 resulting from a redistribution of carbon between the atmosphere and ocean (e.g., due to changes in temperature, salinity, or nutrient utilization). A counterintuitive result emerges when the impact of organic matter burial in the ocean is examined. The organic matter burial first leads to a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2 and an increase in the deep-ocean carbonate ion concentration. Subsequently, enhanced calcium carbonate burial leads to outgassing of carbon from the ocean to the atmosphere, which is quantified by our framework. Results from simulations with a multibox model including the minor acids and bases important for the ocean-atmosphere exchange of carbon are consistent with our analytical predictions. We discuss the potential role of carbonate compensation in glacial-interglacial cycles as an example of how our theoretical framework may be applied.

Goal implementation perspectives of the Framework U N Convention on Climate Change in Russian Federation - Federal Objective Program on prevention of dangerous climate change and their negative consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedritskij, A.I.; Berdin, V.Kh.; Karpov, A.V.

1997-01-01

Principal goals and tasks of Federal Target-oriented Program (FTP), system of program measures, its resources ensuring, mechanism for the FTP realization, supervision of execution and data on assessment of its effectiveness are expounded. Results of Russian Federation Inter-department commission activity on climate change issues are cited. Some aspects of negotiation process on Framework U N Convention o climate change are considered. (author)

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Apostolos Bozikas

2018-04-01

Full Text Available During the last decades, life expectancy has risen significantly in the most developed countries all over the world. Greece is a case in point; consequently, higher governmental financial responsibilities occur as well as serious concerns are raised owing to population ageing. To address this issue, an efficient forecasting method is required. Therefore, the most important stochastic models were comparatively applied to Greek data for the first time. An analysis of their fitting behaviour by gender was conducted and the corresponding forecasting results were evaluated. In particular, we incorporated the Greek population data into seven stochastic mortality models under a common age-period-cohort framework. The fitting performance of each model was thoroughly evaluated based on information criteria values as well as the likelihood ratio test and their robustness to period changes was investigated. In addition, parameter risk in forecasts was assessed by employing bootstrapping techniques. For completeness, projection results for both genders were also illustrated in pricing insurance-related products.

Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keppel, G.; Niel, Van K.P.; Wardell-Johnson, G.W.; Yates, C.J.; Byrne, M.; Mucina, L.; Schut, A.G.T.; Hopper, S.D.; Franklin, S.E.

2012-01-01

Aim Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation under projected anthropogenic climate change, because of their demonstrated ability to facilitate the survival of biota under adverse conditions. Refugia are habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can

Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Dittes

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes, costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

Science.gov (United States)

Dittes, Beatrice; Kaiser, Maria; Špačková, Olga; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

2018-05-01

Planning authorities are faced with a range of questions when planning flood protection measures: is the existing protection adequate for current and future demands or should it be extended? How will flood patterns change in the future? How should the uncertainty pertaining to this influence the planning decision, e.g., for delaying planning or including a safety margin? Is it sufficient to follow a protection criterion (e.g., to protect from the 100-year flood) or should the planning be conducted in a risk-based way? How important is it for flood protection planning to accurately estimate flood frequency (changes), costs and damage? These are questions that we address for a medium-sized pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany, using a sequential Bayesian decision making framework that quantitatively addresses the full spectrum of uncertainty. We evaluate different flood protection systems considered by local agencies in a test study catchment. Despite large uncertainties in damage, cost and climate, the recommendation is robust for the most conservative approach. This demonstrates the feasibility of making robust decisions under large uncertainty. Furthermore, by comparison to a previous study, it highlights the benefits of risk-based planning over the planning of flood protection to a prescribed return period.

Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.

2018-04-01

Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.

Coding conventions and principles for a National Land-Change Modeling Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Donato, David I.

2017-07-14

This report establishes specific rules for writing computer source code for use with the National Land-Change Modeling Framework (NLCMF). These specific rules consist of conventions and principles for writing code primarily in the C and C++ programming languages. Collectively, these coding conventions and coding principles create an NLCMF programming style. In addition to detailed naming conventions, this report provides general coding conventions and principles intended to facilitate the development of high-performance software implemented with code that is extensible, flexible, and interoperable. Conventions for developing modular code are explained in general terms and also enabled and demonstrated through the appended templates for C++ base source-code and header files. The NLCMF limited-extern approach to module structure, code inclusion, and cross-module access to data is both explained in the text and then illustrated through the module templates. Advice on the use of global variables is provided.

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2004-01-01

Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change

OpenAIRE

KAWAGUCHI, Ken'ichi; OHYA, Shunji

2009-01-01

p. 224-231 Strain change in the members of full-scale tensegrity skeletons has been monitored for eight years. The one-day data of one of the tensegrity frame on the hottest and the coldest day in the record are reported and discussed. Kawaguchi, K.; Ohya, S. (2009). Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change. Symposium of the International Association for Shell and Spatial Structures. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10...

A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel V. Shevchenko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review pricing of the variable annuity living and death guarantees offered to retail investors in many countries. Investors purchase these products to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. We present pricing of these products via an optimal stochastic control framework and review the existing numerical methods. We also discuss pricing under the complete/incomplete financial market models, stochastic mortality and optimal/sub-optimal policyholder behavior, and in the presence of taxes. For numerical valuation of these contracts in the case of simple risky asset process, we develop a direct integration method based on the Gauss-Hermite quadratures with a one-dimensional cubic spline for calculation of the expected contract value, and a bi-cubic spline interpolation for applying the jump conditions across the contract cashflow event times. This method is easier to implement and faster when compared to the partial differential equation methods if the transition density (or its moments of the risky asset underlying the contract is known in closed form between the event times. We present accurate numerical results for pricing of a Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefit (GMAB guarantee available on the market that can serve as a numerical benchmark for practitioners and researchers developing pricing of variable annuity guarantees to assess the accuracy of their numerical implementation.

A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

2007-01-01

Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

Future PMP Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios and its Changes Cause Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S.; Lee, J.; Okjeong, L.; Bogyeong, C.; Park, M. W.

2015-12-01

In this presentation, Korea's probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) which reflects all of the storm data until recently are calculated, and are compared to the existing PMPs which were calculated at 2000. In Korea, abnormal weather phenomena such as typhoon Rusa and Maemi, and the extreme rainfall event occurred on the east coast of the northern region, that can have a significant impact on the PMP estimation, have frequently happened since 2000. After selecting 240 major storm events from 1973 to 2012, new PMPs are proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2025, 4900, 10000 and 19600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. After estimating future PMPs using future rainfall and dew point temperature information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under climate change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. By separating the changes in PMPs under climate change into the changes caused by rainfall and dew point temperature, the relative impact of future rainfall and dew point temperature information under climate change on future PMPs is quantified. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change' [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

Learning Physics-based Models in Hydrology under the Framework of Generative Adversarial Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Karpatne, A.; Kumar, V.

2017-12-01

Generative adversarial networks (GANs), that have been highly successful in a number of applications involving large volumes of labeled and unlabeled data such as computer vision, offer huge potential for modeling the dynamics of physical processes that have been traditionally studied using simulations of physics-based models. While conventional physics-based models use labeled samples of input/output variables for model calibration (estimating the right parametric forms of relationships between variables) or data assimilation (identifying the most likely sequence of system states in dynamical systems), there is a greater opportunity to explore the full power of machine learning (ML) methods (e.g, GANs) for studying physical processes currently suffering from large knowledge gaps, e.g. ground-water flow. However, success in this endeavor requires a principled way of combining the strengths of ML methods with physics-based numerical models that are founded on a wealth of scientific knowledge. This is especially important in scientific domains like hydrology where the number of data samples is small (relative to Internet-scale applications such as image recognition where machine learning methods has found great success), and the physical relationships are complex (high-dimensional) and non-stationary. We will present a series of methods for guiding the learning of GANs using physics-based models, e.g., by using the outputs of physics-based models as input data to the generator-learner framework, and by using physics-based models as generators trained using validation data in the adversarial learning framework. These methods are being developed under the broad paradigm of theory-guided data science that we are developing to integrate scientific knowledge with data science methods for accelerating scientific discovery.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Science.gov (United States)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

A Framework for School Change--The School Portfolio.

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Bernhardt, Victoria L.

The "Education for the Future Initiative" is a national, privately-funded program initially sponsored by the Telesis Foundation and recently joined by Arthur Andersen & Co. to help schools undertake continuous improvement. The Initiative has pioneered a framework for school improvement in the form of a school portfolio. This document offers a…

Renewable energy sources project appraisal under uncertainty: the case of wind energy exploitation within a changing energy market environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venetsanos, K.; Angelopoulou, P.; Tsoutsos, T.

2002-01-01

There are four elements, which contribute to the oncoming increase of electricity demand: climate changes, the expected growth rates of EU Member State economies, changes in the consumption patterns and the introduction of new technologies. The new deregulated Electricity Market is expected to respond to this challenge and the energy supply will be adequate and cost effective within this new environment which offers promising opportunities for power producers both existing and newcomers. In this paper a framework for the appraisal of power projects under uncertainty within a competitive market environment is identified, focusing on the electricity from Renewable Energy Sources. To this end the wind energy-to-electricity, production in Greece will serve as a case study. The subject matter is centred on the following areas: the uncertainties within the new deregulated energy market; the evaluation methods including an analysis of the introduced uncertainties after deregulation and a new approach to project evaluation using the real options, as well as comparison of the valuation methodologies within the new environment drawing from the case for Greece. (author)

A comparison of justice frameworks for international research.

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Pratt, Bridget; Loff, Bebe

2015-07-01

Justice frameworks have been developed for international research that provide guidance on the selection of research targets, ancillary care, research capacity strengthening, and post-trial benefits. Yet there has been limited comparison of the different frameworks. This paper examines the underlying aims and theoretical bases of three such frameworks--the fair benefits framework, the human development approach and research for health justice--and considers how their aims impact their guidance on the aforementioned four ethical issues. It shows that the frameworks' underlying objectives vary across two dimensions. First, whether they seek to prevent harmful or exploitative international research or to promote international research with health benefits for low and middle-income countries. Second, whether they address justice at the micro level or the macro level. The fair benefits framework focuses on reforming contractual elements in individual international research collaborations to ensure fairness, whereas the other two frameworks aim to connect international research with the reduction of global health inequities. The paper then highlights where there is overlap between the frameworks' requirements and where differences in the strength and content of the obligations they identify arise as a result of their varying objectives and theoretical bases. In doing so, it does not offer a critical comparison of the frameworks but rather seeks to add clarity to current debates on justice and international research by showing how they are positioned relative to one another. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Predicting shifting sustainability tradeoffs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.

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Sarà, Gianluca; Gouhier, Tarik C; Brigolin, Daniele; Porporato, Erika M D; Mangano, M Cristina; Mirto, Simone; Mazzola, Antonio; Pastres, Roberto

2018-05-03

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 gC m -2 d -1 ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

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Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

2014-12-01

Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and

An Applied Ecological Framework for Evaluating Infrastructure to Promote Walking and Cycling: The iConnect Study

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Bull, Fiona; Powell, Jane; Cooper, Ashley R.; Brand, Christian; Mutrie, Nanette; Preston, John; Rutter, Harry

2011-01-01

Improving infrastructure for walking and cycling is increasingly recommended as a means to promote physical activity, prevent obesity, and reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions. However, limited evidence from intervention studies exists to support this approach. Drawing on classic epidemiological methods, psychological and ecological models of behavior change, and the principles of realistic evaluation, we have developed an applied ecological framework by which current theories about the behavioral effects of environmental change may be tested in heterogeneous and complex intervention settings. Our framework guides study design and analysis by specifying the most important data to be collected and relations to be tested to confirm or refute specific hypotheses and thereby refine the underlying theories. PMID:21233429

Theory of Change: a theory-driven approach to enhance the Medical Research Council's framework for complex interventions.

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De Silva, Mary J; Breuer, Erica; Lee, Lucy; Asher, Laura; Chowdhary, Neerja; Lund, Crick; Patel, Vikram

2014-07-05

The Medical Research Councils' framework for complex interventions has been criticized for not including theory-driven approaches to evaluation. Although the framework does include broad guidance on the use of theory, it contains little practical guidance for implementers and there have been calls to develop a more comprehensive approach. A prospective, theory-driven process of intervention design and evaluation is required to develop complex healthcare interventions which are more likely to be effective, sustainable and scalable. We propose a theory-driven approach to the design and evaluation of complex interventions by adapting and integrating a programmatic design and evaluation tool, Theory of Change (ToC), into the MRC framework for complex interventions. We provide a guide to what ToC is, how to construct one, and how to integrate its use into research projects seeking to design, implement and evaluate complex interventions using the MRC framework. We test this approach by using ToC within two randomized controlled trials and one non-randomized evaluation of complex interventions. Our application of ToC in three research projects has shown that ToC can strengthen key stages of the MRC framework. It can aid the development of interventions by providing a framework for enhanced stakeholder engagement and by explicitly designing an intervention that is embedded in the local context. For the feasibility and piloting stage, ToC enables the systematic identification of knowledge gaps to generate research questions that strengthen intervention design. ToC may improve the evaluation of interventions by providing a comprehensive set of indicators to evaluate all stages of the causal pathway through which an intervention achieves impact, combining evaluations of intervention effectiveness with detailed process evaluations into one theoretical framework. Incorporating a ToC approach into the MRC framework holds promise for improving the design and evaluation of complex

Theory of Change: a theory-driven approach to enhance the Medical Research Council's framework for complex interventions

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The Medical Research Councils’ framework for complex interventions has been criticized for not including theory-driven approaches to evaluation. Although the framework does include broad guidance on the use of theory, it contains little practical guidance for implementers and there have been calls to develop a more comprehensive approach. A prospective, theory-driven process of intervention design and evaluation is required to develop complex healthcare interventions which are more likely to be effective, sustainable and scalable. Methods We propose a theory-driven approach to the design and evaluation of complex interventions by adapting and integrating a programmatic design and evaluation tool, Theory of Change (ToC), into the MRC framework for complex interventions. We provide a guide to what ToC is, how to construct one, and how to integrate its use into research projects seeking to design, implement and evaluate complex interventions using the MRC framework. We test this approach by using ToC within two randomized controlled trials and one non-randomized evaluation of complex interventions. Results Our application of ToC in three research projects has shown that ToC can strengthen key stages of the MRC framework. It can aid the development of interventions by providing a framework for enhanced stakeholder engagement and by explicitly designing an intervention that is embedded in the local context. For the feasibility and piloting stage, ToC enables the systematic identification of knowledge gaps to generate research questions that strengthen intervention design. ToC may improve the evaluation of interventions by providing a comprehensive set of indicators to evaluate all stages of the causal pathway through which an intervention achieves impact, combining evaluations of intervention effectiveness with detailed process evaluations into one theoretical framework. Conclusions Incorporating a ToC approach into the MRC framework holds promise for

Effective social justice advocacy: a theory-of-change framework for assessing progress.

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Klugman, Barbara

2011-11-01

This article offers a theory-of-change framework for social justice advocacy. It describes broad outcome categories against which activists, donors and evaluators can assess progress (or lack thereof) in an ongoing manner: changes in organisational capacity, base of support, alliances, data and analysis from a social justice perspective, problem definition and potential policy options, visibility, public norms, and population level impacts. Using these for evaluation enables activists and donors to learn from and rethink their strategies as the political context and/or actors change over time. The paper presents a case study comparing factors that facilitated reproductive rights policy wins during the transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa and factors that undermined their implementation in the post-apartheid period. It argues that after legal and policy victories had been won, failure to maintain strong organizations and continually rethink strategies contributed to the loss of government focus on and resources for implementation of new policies. By implication, evaluating effectiveness only by an actual policy change does not allow for ongoing learning to ensure appropriate strategies. It also fails to recognise that a policy win can be overturned and needs vigilant monitoring and advocacy for implementation. This means that funding and organising advocacy should seldom be undertaken as a short-term proposition. It also suggests that the building and maintenance of organisational and leadership capacity is as important as any other of the outcome categories in enabling success. Copyright © 2011 Foundation Review. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

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Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily S Hope

Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

An Integrated Software Framework to Support Semantic Modeling and Reasoning of Spatiotemporal Change of Geographical Objects: A Use Case of Land Use and Land Cover Change Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenwen Li

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Evolving Earth observation and change detection techniques enable the automatic identification of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC over a large extent from massive amounts of remote sensing data. It at the same time poses a major challenge in effective organization, representation and modeling of such information. This study proposes and implements an integrated computational framework to support the modeling, semantic and spatial reasoning of change information with regard to space, time and topology. We first proposed a conceptual model to formally represent the spatiotemporal variation of change data, which is essential knowledge to support various environmental and social studies, such as deforestation and urbanization studies. Then, a spatial ontology was created to encode these semantic spatiotemporal data in a machine-understandable format. Based on the knowledge defined in the ontology and related reasoning rules, a semantic platform was developed to support the semantic query and change trajectory reasoning of areas with LULCC. This semantic platform is innovative, as it integrates semantic and spatial reasoning into a coherent computational and operational software framework to support automated semantic analysis of time series data that can go beyond LULC datasets. In addition, this system scales well as the amount of data increases, validated by a number of experimental results. This work contributes significantly to both the geospatial Semantic Web and GIScience communities in terms of the establishment of the (web-based semantic platform for collaborative question answering and decision-making.

A framework for evaluating forest restoration alternatives and their outcomes, over time, to inform monitoring: Bioregional inventory originated simulation under management

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Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Sara Loreno; Robert F. Keefe; Conor K. Bell

2017-01-01

The BioSum modeling framework summarizes current and prospective future forest conditions under alternative management regimes along with their costs, revenues and product yields. BioSum translates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for input to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), summarizes FVS outputs for input to the treatment operations cost model (OpCost...

Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

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Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while

Endogenous technological and demographic change under increasing water scarcity

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Pande, Saket; Ertsen, Maurits; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2014-05-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2013-11-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

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Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Dynamically analyzing cell interactions in biological environments using multiagent social learning framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chengwei; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Shuxin; Feng, Zhiyong

2017-09-20

Biological environment is uncertain and its dynamic is similar to the multiagent environment, thus the research results of the multiagent system area can provide valuable insights to the understanding of biology and are of great significance for the study of biology. Learning in a multiagent environment is highly dynamic since the environment is not stationary anymore and each agent's behavior changes adaptively in response to other coexisting learners, and vice versa. The dynamics becomes more unpredictable when we move from fixed-agent interaction environments to multiagent social learning framework. Analytical understanding of the underlying dynamics is important and challenging. In this work, we present a social learning framework with homogeneous learners (e.g., Policy Hill Climbing (PHC) learners), and model the behavior of players in the social learning framework as a hybrid dynamical system. By analyzing the dynamical system, we obtain some conditions about convergence or non-convergence. We experimentally verify the predictive power of our model using a number of representative games. Experimental results confirm the theoretical analysis. Under multiagent social learning framework, we modeled the behavior of agent in biologic environment, and theoretically analyzed the dynamics of the model. We present some sufficient conditions about convergence or non-convergence and prove them theoretically. It can be used to predict the convergence of the system.

Cancer drug development and the evolving regulatory framework for companion diagnostics in the European union.

Science.gov (United States)

Pignatti, Francesco; Ehmann, Falk; Hemmings, Robert; Jonsson, Bertil; Nuebling, Micha; Papaluca-Amati, Marisa; Posch, Martin; Rasi, Guido