WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying change framework

  1. Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Sellers

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.

  2. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  3. A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

    2014-01-01

    The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

  4. Denmark's National Inventory Reports. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Winther, M.; Rasmussen, E.

    2000-01-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2000. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years from 1990 to 1998 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , CO, NMVOC, SO 2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF. (au)

  5. France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

  6. An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.; Xie, Y. J.

    2016-02-01

    An integrated statistical and data-driven (ISD) framework was proposed for analyzing river flows and flood frequencies in the Duhe River Basin, China, under climate change. The proposed framework involved four major components: (i) a hybrid model based on ASD (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool) and KNN (K-nearest neighbor) was used for downscaling rainfall and CDEN (Conditional Density Estimate Network) was applied for downscaling minimum temperature and relative humidity from global circulation models (GCMs) to local weather stations; (ii) Bayesian neural network (BNN) was used for simulating monthly river flows based on projected weather information; (iii) KNN was applied for converting monthly flow to daily time series; (iv) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was adopted for flood frequency analysis. In this study, the variables from CGCM3 A2 and HadCM3 A2 scenarios were employed as the large-scale predictors. The results indicated that the maximum monthly and annual runoffs would both increase under CGCM3 and HadCM3 A2 emission scenarios at the middle and end of this century. The flood risk in the study area would generally increase with a widening uncertainty range. Compared with traditional approaches, the proposed framework takes the full advantages of a series of statistical and data-driven methods and offers a parsimonious way of projecting flood risks under climatic change conditions.

  7. Denmark's forth national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    The Kingdom of Denmark comprises Denmark, Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has been ratified on behalf of all three parts. This report is Denmark's Fourth Climate Communication under the Climate Convention. Since Denmark's ratification covers the entire Realm, the report includes information on Greenland and the Faeroe Islands. The report is organised in accordance with the guidelines for national communications adopted by the parties to the Climate Convention. (BA)

  8. The precautionary principle in fisheries management under climate change: How the international legal framework formulate it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifah, E.; Imanullah, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    One of the objectives of fisheries management is to reach long-term sustainable benefits of the fish stocks while reducing the risk of severe or irreversible damage to the marine ecosystem. Achieving this objective needs, the good scientific knowledge and understanding on fisheries management including scientific data and information on the fish stock, fishing catch, distribution, migration, the proportion of mature fish, the mortality rate, reproduction as well as the knowledge on the impact of fishing on dependent and associated species and other species belonging to the same ecosystem, and further the impact of climate change and climate variability on the fish stocks and marine ecosystem. Lack of this scientific knowledge may lead to high levels of uncertainty. The precautionary principle is one of the basic environmental principles needed in overcoming this problem. An essence of this principle is that, in facing the serious risk as a result of the limited scientific knowledge or the absence of complete evidence of harm, it should not prevent the precautionary measures in minimizing risks and protecting the fish stocks and ecosystem. This study aims to examine how the precautionary principle in fisheries management be formulated into the international legal framework, especially under the climate change framework.

  9. Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

    Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

  10. Sweden's third national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Sweden's national communication to the UN Convention on Climate Change describes everything about the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases, the motives and forces behind emissions, and official Swedish climate policies. Every five years, Sweden submits a communication on practical climate efforts in Sweden to the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Swedish Environmental Protection Board has coordinated the work of producing the basic documentation for the communication, which also describes the measures already taken and those planned for the future. In addition, scenarios have been adopted for developments in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden's vulnerability and Swedish research into the climate and climate change

  11. Canada's national report on climate change: Actions to meet commitments under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, countries must adopt measures to mitigate climate change, adapt to its possible effects, increase public awareness and scientific understanding of climate change and possible responses, and work together in all of these areas. A review is provided of action being currently taken by Canadian governments, non-governmental organizations, communities, and the private sector to meet domestic and international climate change commitments. Projections indicate that climate change could result in significant changes to many of Canada's natural ecosystems, with equally significant economic and social consequences. Canadian demand for energy is the chief cause of Canada's man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. As a first step in meeting its commitment, Canada is developing and implementing measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mainly in the area of energy efficiency, energy conservation, and switching to energy sources that are less carbon-intensive. Progress in limiting such emissions will be assessed via emissions inventories, examination of climatic change indicators, forecasting future energy-related emissions of the three primary greenhouse gases, and use of case studies to assess the effectiveness of emissions control measures. Other components of Canadian activities include increasing public awareness of climate change, sponsoring research on the subject, reviewing environmental policies, and international cooperation. 59 refs., 36 figs., 23 tabs

  12. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate...... change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being...... optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no...

  13. Denmark's national inventory report. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2001. Emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

    2003-01-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due bye 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CO, NMVOC, SO 2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 . (au)

  14. Denmark's National Inventory Report - Submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1990-2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's in-ventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO2, CH4, N2O,......, CO, NMVOC, SO2 , HFCs, PFCs and SF6....

  15. Denmark's national inventory report 2006 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2004. Emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth

    2006-08-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2006. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2004 for CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 , CO, NMVOC, SO 2 . (au)

  16. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework......Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...

  17. Denmark's National Inventory Reports. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Winther, M. [Danmarks Miljoeundersoegelser, Afd. for Systemanalyse (Denmark); Rasmussen, E. [Energistyrelsen (Denmark)

    2000-05-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2000. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years from 1990 to 1998 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, NO{sub x}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}, HFCs, PFCs and SF. (au)

  18. HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

    2017-07-01

    facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The resilience canvas is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend that efforts now be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.

  19. A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNulty, Steven G.; Boggs, Johnny L.

    2010-01-01

    Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period

  20. A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNulty, Steven G., E-mail: steve_mcnulty@ncsu.ed [USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forests Environmental Assessment Threats Center, Southern Global Change Program, 920 Main Campus Dr. Suite 300, Raleigh, NC 27606 (United States); Boggs, Johnny L. [USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forests Environmental Assessment Threats Center, Southern Global Change Program, 920 Main Campus Dr. Suite 300, Raleigh, NC 27606 (United States)

    2010-06-15

    Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period

  1. Finland`s second report under the framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    Finland is an industrialized country with extensive forest lands. Because of the structure of industry and the country`s geophysical conditions, large amounts of energy are consumed. In 1995, CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels and peat and from industry totalled 56 Tg, as compared to 54 Tg in 1990. Wood burning released another 21 Tg of CO{sub 2} in 1995, but this is not counted in total emissions because even more carbon was bound up in the growing stock in the forests. Methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions totalled 241 Gg in 1995, nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) 18 Gg, nitrogen oxides 259 Gg, carbon monoxide (CO) 434 Gg and volatile organic compounds from human activities (NMVOC) 182 Gg. Emissions other than carbon dioxide were jointly equivalent to some 25 Tg of CO{sub 2} in terms of their direct or indirect greenhouse effect. These estimates are consistent wish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The minor deviations from the guidelines have been presented in this report. Trends in national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks to 2000 and beyond have been estimated in consultation with appropriate government departments, industry sectors, research institutions and other bodies. Wherever possible, these projections take into account the effect of current and planned policies and measures aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. The main focus in Finland`s climate strategy is to intensify those programmes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are already under way, such as efficiency improvements in the energy production and utilization system, and use of energy and carbon taxes. As well as limiting emissions of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases, the Finnish action programme also includes measures to enhance carbon reservoirs and sinks. In its energy report to Parliament in autumn 1993, the Government adopted the goals of stopping increases in CO{sub 2} emissions from

  2. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  3. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large nu...

  4. France's fifth national communication submitted under the United Nations framework on Climate Change. November 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After a presentation of France's national context (institutions, demography, geography, climate, economy), this document proposes information related to greenhouse gas emission inventory, a description of policy and measures aimed notably at meeting Kyoto's protocol requirements, a discussion of projections and of an assessment of the total effect of these policy and measures, a discussion of vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures, a presentation of financial resources and technology transfer actions, a presentation of research actions and systematic observations, and a presentation of actions in the fields of education, training and public participation

  5. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2015-02-01

    Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

  6. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    , but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

  7. Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

  8. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  9. Denmark's national inventory report. Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2001. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, M.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

    2003-04-01

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due bye 15 April 2003. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2001 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}. (au)

  10. Denmark's national inventory report 2007 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2005. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boll Illerup, J.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

    2007-10-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2007. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2005 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  11. Denmark's national inventory report 2006 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2004. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Illerup, J.B.; Lyck, E.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth (and others)

    2006-08-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2006. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2004 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  12. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli Pekka

    2015-01-01

    capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation......Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate...... change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation...

  13. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  14. Denmark's national inventory report 2008 - Submitted under the United Nations framework convention on climate change, 1990-2006. Emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Lyck, E.; Hjorth Mikkelsen, M. (and others)

    2008-05-15

    This report is Denmark's National Inventory Report reported to the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due by 15 April 2008. The report contains information on Denmark's inventories for all years' from 1990 to 2006 for CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HFC{sub s}, PFC{sub s} and SF{sub 6}, CO, NMVOC, SO{sub 2}. (au)

  15. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  16. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ˜ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study.

  17. Development of a Drought Severity Assessment Framework using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Products under Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, B. P.; Shin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Evaluating drought severity based on future climate scenarios plays an important role for water resources management. In this study we assessed drought severity based on soil moisture for individual soil-crop combinations. Based on the historical data, pixel-scale hydraulic parameters at finer-scales were estimated from remotely sensed (RS) soil moisture using a newly developed algorithm EMOGA (Ensemble Multiple Operators Genetic Algorithm) coupled with Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) hydrological model. These estimated hydraulic parameters along with meteorological variables obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) were used to predict soil moisture using the SWAP model. Further, drought severity was calculated using a soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) based on the projected soil moisture obtained from the SWAP model. The proposed model was evaluated based on synthetic and field data under different hydro-climates (Lubbock, Texas; Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma; Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa). Finer-scale root zone soil moisture predictions were considerably influenced by various combinations of environmental factors (soils, crops, groundwater table, etc.) along with GCM scenarios. However, these local environmental factors had relatively limited impacts (compared to precipitation dynamics) on reducing drought severity in the study region. The absolute SMDI values do indicate the occurrence of agricultural drought during 2010-2020. Thus, our proposed approach can be used to assess drought severity at finer-scales using a RS soil moisture product for efficient agricultural/water resources management.

  18. A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

    2016-01-01

    Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

  19. National inventory report for France under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol - CCNUCC, March 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Jean-Pierre; Fontelle, Jean-Pierre; Nicco, Laetitia; Andre, Jean-Marc; Deflorenne, Emmanuel; Druart, Ariane; Gueguen, Celine; Jabot, Julien; Jacquier, Guillaume; Joya, Romain; Martinet, Yann; Mathias, Etienne; Prouteau, Emilie; Serveau, Laetitia; Vincent, Julien; Allemand, Nadine; Bastide, Aurelie; Gavel, Antoine; Kessouar, Sabrina; Tuddenham, Mark; Millard, Frederique; MArtineaud, Helene; MILLION, Aurelien; Nikov, Dimitar; Guittet, Olivier

    2011-03-01

    This national inventory report supplies emission data for France within the period 1990-2009, concerning all the substances that contribute to enhancing the greenhouse effect, required under: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the second year of commitment to the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). The substances covered are the direct greenhouse gases comprising the Kyoto Protocol 'basket of six': carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the two species of halogenous substances, hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), have also to be reported by the Parties under the Convention. For the period 1990-2008 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9), as defined by the UNFCCC. Several changes have been added to take into account the remarks of the reviews of UNFCCC. Although significant continuous progress has been achieved in terms of the sources covered and the quality of estimates, considerable uncertainties remain concerning emissions. These should be borne in mind when using the data in this report. A table indicating uncertainties based on current knowledge has been included in the report. Future reviews of these data are always possible, if not probable, to take into account both changes in methodology and work underway at international level with a view to improving knowledge and rules on compiling and presenting emissions. To answer specifically to the Kyoto Protocol's requirements, this report also includes the requirements supplementary information required under Article 7, paragraph 1, and Article 3, paragraph 14 of the

  20. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  1. New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

  2. Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, C.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

  3. France 2001. Third national communication under the UN framework convention on climate change; France 2001. Troisieme communication nationale a la convention cadre des nations unies sur les changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    In line with obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, France, like all the signatories of the convention, is required periodically to provide a National Communication following a plan established by the Conference of Parties to the Convention. This document provides information on national actions related to climate change. It also aims to help our country respect its commitments and encourage the release of information so as to enable an examination and in-depth evaluation of the implementation of the commitments made under the Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the 1998 European agreement on burden-sharing within the European Union. (author)

  4. A theoretical framework of organizational change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, G.; Polos, L.; van Witteloostuijn, A.; Christe-Zyse, J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – Organizational change is a risky endeavour. Most change initiatives fall short on their goals and produce high opportunity and process costs, which at times outweigh the content benefits of organizational change. This paper seeks to develop a framework, offering a theoretical toolbox to

  5. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia. Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  6. Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

    2017-04-01

    A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the

  7. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  8. Care profession under change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask Eriksen, Tine; Engel, Lisbeth Vinberg; Vedsegaard, Helle

    Backgound and aims: Sygeplejerskemanglen i Danmark er stor. Udfordringerne består i disse år i at rekruttere og fastholde sygeplejestuderende i studiet. Hensigten med projektet er dels at undersøge hvilke livshistoriske omsorgsforudsætninger, de studerende møder med i uddannelsen og dels at beskr...

  9. Complex Interfaces Under Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    The hydrosphere is dynamic across the major compartments of the Earth system: the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, the land surface water, and the groundwater within the strata below the two last compartments. The global geography of the hydrosphere essentially depends on thermodynamic and mechan...... these interfaces and interfaced compartments and processes. Climate, sea-level, oceanographic currents and hydrological processes are all affected, while anthropogenic changes are often intense in the geographic settings corresponding to such interfaces.......The hydrosphere is dynamic across the major compartments of the Earth system: the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, the land surface water, and the groundwater within the strata below the two last compartments. The global geography of the hydrosphere essentially depends on thermodynamic...... and mechanical processes that develop within this structure. Water-related processes at the interfaces between the compartments are complex, depending both on the interface itself, and on the characteristics of the interfaced compartments. Various aspects of global change directly or indirectly impact...

  10. Complex Interfaces Under Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    The hydrosphere is dynamic across the major compartments of the Earth system: the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, the land surface water, and the groundwater within the strata below the two last compartments. The global geography of the hydrosphere essentially depends on thermodynamic and mechan......The hydrosphere is dynamic across the major compartments of the Earth system: the atmosphere, the oceans and seas, the land surface water, and the groundwater within the strata below the two last compartments. The global geography of the hydrosphere essentially depends on thermodynamic...... these interfaces and interfaced compartments and processes. Climate, sea-level, oceanographic currents and hydrological processes are all affected, while anthropogenic changes are often intense in the geographic settings corresponding to such interfaces....

  11. The European Framework Programme under way

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1st January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 billion euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 Decem...

  12. The European Framework Programme under way

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    The new European Framework Programme - FP7 - has recently started and will offer various possibilities for CERN to participate in EU co-funded projects for research and technological development. In December 2006, the Council of the European Union (EU) formally adopted the 7th European Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration activities (FP7). FP7 started on 1 January 2007 and will cover the period 2007 to 2013. With a total budget of 50.5 B-Euros, FP7 is the largest Framework Programme in the history of the EU. FP7 consists of four major sub-programmes, referred to as 'Specific Programmes'. 'Cooperation' is focused on collaborative research and is divided into 10 research themes. 'Ideas' is a new EU programme for funding of frontier research in all fields of science. 'Capacities' aims at strengthening the research capacities in Europe. Finally, 'People' succeeds the previous Marie Curie Programmes and targets the development of Europe's human potential. On 22 December...

  13. The EC BIOCLIM Project (2000-2003), 5. Euratom Framework Programme - Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvez, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Marianne Calvez (ANDRA, France) presented the new EC BIOCLIM project that started in 2001. Its main objective is to provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the possible long-term impacts on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations due to climate driven changes. She explained that BIOCLIM objective is not to predict what will be the future but will correspond to an illustration of how people could use the knowledge. The BIOCLIM project will use the outcomes from the Biomass project. Where Biomass considered discrete biospheres, the BIOCLIM project will consider the evolution of climate with a focus on the European climate for three regions in the United Kingdom, France and Spain. The consortium of BIOCLIM participants consists of various experts in climate modelling and various experts and organisations in performance assessment. The intent is to build an integrated dynamic climate model that represents all the important mechanisms for long-term climate evolution. The modelling will primarily address the next 200000 years. The final outcome will be an enhancement of the state-of-the-art treatment of biosphere system change over long periods of time through the use of a number of innovative climate modelling approaches and the application of the climate model outputs in performance assessments

  14. Scalability under a Power Bound using the GREMLINs Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiterth, Matthias [Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich (Germany)

    2015-02-16

    With the move towards exascale, system and software developers will have to deal with issues of extreme parallelism. The system properties affected most by the increase in node and core count are the shared resources on node and across the system. The increase in parallelism leads to reduced memory and bandwidth when regarding individual cores. Since power is a limiting factor for supercomputers, and power is not fully utilized in current systems, overprovisioning compute resources is a viable approach to maximized power utilization. To maximize system performance in regard to these changing conditions, it is necessary to understand how resource restrictions impact performance and system behavior. For the purpose of understanding anticipated system properties the GREMLINs Framework was developed. The framework gives the opportunity to add power restrictions, hinder memory properties and introduce faults to study resilience, among others. These features give the opportunity to use current petascale technology to study problems system designers and software developers will have to face when moving towards exascale and beyond. This work describes the initial release of the GREMLINs Framework, developed for this work, and shows how it can be used to study the scaling behavior of proxy applications. These proxy applications represent a selection of HPC workloads important to the scientific community. The proxy applications studied are AMG2013, an algebraic multi-grid linear system solver, CoMD, a classical molecular dynamics proxy application and NEKBONE, an application that uses a high order spectral element method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations. The main interest of these studies lies in analysis regarding their power behavior at scale under a power bound. These findings show how the GREMLINs Framework can help systems and software designers to attain better application performance and can also be used as basis for CPU power balancing tools to use power more

  15. Inventory of greenhouse effect gases in France under the united nation framework convention on climatic change; Inventaire des emissions de gaz a effet de serre en France au titre de la convention cadre des nations unies sur le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-01

    The present report supplies emission data, for France and for the period 1990 - 2000 concerning all the substances involved in the increase in the greenhouse effect and covered under the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The substances are the six direct greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto protocol: carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), the two species of halogenous substances - hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), gases which indirectly make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, are reported under the Convention. For the period 1990 - 1999 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/CP/1999/7) defined by the UNFCCC on reporting for inventories of emissions, in particular the use of the Common Reporting Format (CRF). (author)

  16. Towards a Framework for Change Detection in Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Mirko; Nauck, Detlef; Ruta, Dymitr; Spott, Martin

    Since the world with its markets, innovations and customers is changing faster than ever before, the key to survival for businesses is the ability to detect, assess and respond to changing conditions rapidly and intelligently. Discovering changes and reacting to or acting upon them before others do has therefore become a strategical issue for many companies. However, existing data analysis techniques are insufflent for this task since they typically assume that the domain under consideration is stable over time. This paper presents a framework that detects changes within a data set at virtually any level of granularity. The underlying idea is to derive a rule-based description of the data set at different points in time and to subsequently analyse how these rules change. Nevertheless, further techniques are required to assist the data analyst in interpreting and assessing their changes. Therefore the framework also contains methods to discard rules that are non-drivers for change and to assess the interestingness of detected changes.

  17. A normative ethical framework in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grasso, M. [Dipartimento di Sociologia e Ricerca Sociale, Universita degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Edificio U7, via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milan (Italy)

    2007-04-15

    The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen's capability approach, seems promising.

  18. Practice research under changing conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Ole

    particularly important in unraveling what is glossed over or reinterpreted beyond recognition. Doing so helps putting psychology back on its feet. But practice research was developed under other social, political and professional conditions and under other regimes of knowledge than we find today where...... research in critical psychology is based on a science of the subject – as opposed to the science of control dominating psychology. Of course, projects involve many subjects with diverse perspectives on the issues at hand. Descriptions of practices from subject positions previously considered negligible......The tradition of practice research emerged in critical psychology in Germany and Denmark about twenty-five years ago. It emphasizes the relevance of knowledge - above all knowledge for change - by researching exemplary scopes of possibilities for agents in particular kinds of situations. A key...

  19. A country framework for analyzing climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, K.

    1995-01-01

    Once the global community accepted the threat of global climate change as a serious one, many countries began to study its possible consequences and the scope for national action that could help mitigate it. Governments will find that national climate change studies are useful quite apart from helping them to fulfill commitments under the FCCC. All countries, developed and developing, will benefit from an understanding of the sacrifice they need to make for the greater benefit of climate change mitigation. This sacrifice - that is, the set of trade-offs or the 'added burden' - is what economists refer to as the 'incremental cost' of climate change mitigation actions. All countries will benefit from knowing what these costs are and from knowing how much their national action will matter. Using measures of cost and mitigation, they will be able to choose from among their alternative national actions those with the greatest effect and the lowest incremental cost. Eligible countries can also use these measures to negotiate the amount of financial assistance they need from the financial mechanism of the FCCC or other sources. A country framework for medium-term considerations will yield results useful for investment planning, policy choice, and financial reimbursement (where appropriate). This is the focus of the framework outlined in this paper. (EG) 15 refs

  20. Engineering Change Management Method Framework in Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stekolschik, Alexander

    2016-11-01

    Engineering changes make an impact on different process chains in and outside the company, and lead to most error costs and time shifts. In fact, 30 to 50 per cent of development costs result from technical changes. Controlling engineering change processes can help us to avoid errors and risks, and contribute to cost optimization and a shorter time to market. This paper presents a method framework for controlling engineering changes at mechanical engineering companies. The developed classification of engineering changes and accordingly process requirements build the basis for the method framework. The developed method framework comprises two main areas: special data objects managed in different engineering IT tools and process framework. Objects from both areas are building blocks that can be selected to the overall business process based on the engineering process type and change classification. The process framework contains steps for the creation of change objects (both for overall change and for parts), change implementation, and release. Companies can select singleprocess building blocks from the framework, depending on the product development process and change impact. The developed change framework has been implemented at a division (10,000 employees) of a big German mechanical engineering company.

  1. Armillaria Pathogenesis under Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Kubiak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes influencing forest ecosystems include increased air temperatures and CO2 concentrations as well as droughts and decreased water availability. These changes in turn effect changes in species composition of both host plants and pathogens. In the case of Armillaria, climate changes cause an increase in the activity of individual species and modify the growth of rhizomorphs, increasing the susceptibility of trees. The relationship between climate changes and the biotic elements of Armillaria disease are discussed in overview.

  2. Improvement of operational risk measurement under the Solvency II framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darja Stepchenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk is one of the core risks of every insurance company in accordance to the solvency capital requirement under the Solvency II regime. The target of the research is to investigate the improvement possibilities of the operational risk measurement under Solvency II regime. The authors have prepared the algorithm of the operational risk measurement under Solvency II framework that helps improve the understanding of the operational risk capital requirements. Moreover, the authors have prepared the case study about a practical usage of the suggested algorithm through the example of one non-life insurance company. The authors use, in order to perform the research, such corresponding methods as theoretical and methodological analysis of scientific literature, analytical, statistical and mathematical methods.

  3. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  4. Climate Change and Poverty : An Analytical Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Bonzanigo, Laura; Narloch, Ulf; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Rozenberg, Julie; Fay, Marianne; Bangalore, Mook

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; ...

  5. A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability and identifying adaptation responses in the central hardwoods region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia R. Butler; Leslie A. Brandt; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Patricia D. Shannon; Chris W. Swanston

    2014-01-01

    The Central Hardwood region contains a mosaic of forests, woodlands, savannas, and other ecosystems that will increasingly be affected by a changing climate over the next century. Understanding potential impacts is important to sustaining healthy forests under changing conditions. The objectives of the Climate Change Response Framework (forestadaptation.org) are to...

  6. Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Bangalore, Mook; Bonzanigo, Laura; Fay, Marianne; Narloch, Ulf; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of po...

  7. Institutional framework changes in Brazil's energy industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Almeida, E.; Queiroz Pinto JR, H.

    2009-01-01

    The liberalization of the Brazilian energy sector in the 1990's was meant to drastically reduce the role of the State in the sector. This reform has not had the desired results. Private investment could not guarantee the expansion of the Brazilian energy sector at the necessary speed. The first half of this decade has been marked by problems of electricity supply and a rather timid role of private investment in boosting energy supply. During the second half of the decade, liberal reform of the energy sector in Brazil has gone through major adjustments, marked by the search for a new compromise between the role of the State and the private sector. This paper highlights the institutional evolution of Brazil's energy or industries and tries to show how risk for public and private investment has been reduced by the adoption of new institutional and economic mechanisms of coordination. In the current institutional framework, the State plays an important role in coordinating the investment process for the expansion of supply. The pace of investment in Brazil in the energy sector has accelerated significantly after the adoption of the new coordination mechanisms. (authors)

  8. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

    2017-01-01

    Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence...... that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

  9. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  10. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  11. Climate change and Africa : the normative framework of the African Union / Daniel Mirisho Pallangyo

    OpenAIRE

    Pallangyo, Daniel Mirisho

    2013-01-01

    There is enough evidence on how climate change consequences will adversely affect Africa despite the fact that it is the continent that has least contributed to the problem. The international climate change regime recognises Africa's vulnerability to climate change and provides for special treatment under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC). Thus, the international climate change regime presents an opportunity for African countries to adapt an...

  12. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

  13. Activities implemented jointly: First report to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Accomplishments and descriptions of projects accepted under the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    More than 150 countries are now Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which seeks, as its ultimate objective, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. As a step toward this goal, all Parties are to take measures to mitigate climate change and to promote and cooperate in the development and diffusion of technologies and practices that control or reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases. In the US view, efforts between countries or entities within them to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions undertaken cooperatively--called joint implementation (JI)--holds significant potential both for combating the threat of global warming and for promoting sustainable development. To develop and operationalize the JI concept, the US launched its Initiative on Joint Implementation (USIJI) in October 1993, and designed the program to attract private sector resources and to encourage the diffusion of innovative technologies to mitigate climate change. The USIJI provides a mechanism for investments by US entities in projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and has developed a set of criteria for evaluating proposed projects for their potential to reduce net GHG emissions.

  14. Does social marketing provide a framework for changing healthcare practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Zoë Slote; Clarkson, Peter John

    2009-07-01

    We argue that social marketing can be used as a generic framework for analysing barriers to the take-up of clinical guidelines, and planning interventions which seek to enable this change. We reviewed the literature on take-up of clinical guidelines, in particular barriers and enablers to change; social marketing principles and social marketing applied to healthcare. We then applied the social marketing framework to analyse the literature and to consider implications for future guideline policy to assess its feasibility and accessibility. There is sizeable extant literature on healthcare practitioners' non-compliance with clinical guidelines. This is an international problem common to a number of settings. The reasons for poor levels of take up appear to be well understood, but not addressed adequately in practice. Applying a social marketing framework brings new insights to the problem." We show that a social marketing framework provides a useful solution-focused framework for systematically understanding barriers to individual behaviour change and designing interventions accordingly. Whether the social marketing framework provides an effective means of bringing about behaviour change remains an empirical question which has still to be tested in practice. The analysis presented here provides strong motivation to begin such testing.

  15. A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests . Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/EL TN-14-1 May 2014 A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change ...consider climate change during their planning processes as future landscapes have the potential to vary greatly from current conditions. Military

  16. A prompt start: Implementing the framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chayes, A.; Skolnikoff, E.B.; Victor, D.G.

    1992-01-01

    A Framework Convention on Climate Change is under active negotiation in the United Nations with the expectation it will be ready for Signature at the Rio Conference this June. Under the most optimistic projections, a Convention will not come into force and be an effective instrument for months, probably years. In recognition of the several institutional tasks that will be of crucial importance whatever the detailed content of the Convention a small group of high international organizations involved in the negotiations was convened at the Rockefeller Foundation's Conference Center at Bellagio in January. The discussions at Bellagio on the need for a Prompt Start on these institutional tasks benefitted from earlier meetings at Harvard in March and at Bermuda in May, 1991, that the co-organizers convened to discuss these and related aspects of the negotiations on a Climate Convention. Those meetings were attended by members of the academic community, officials from the United Nations, and representatives of governments involved in the negotiations

  17. Conceptual framework for research on global change 1992-1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    For a better overall understanding of the Earth system scientists have initiated extensive international research programs dealing with the dynamics of the Earth system. These activities are characterized by their interdisciplinary, border crossing, and system orientated approach. For a long time scientists from the Federal Republic of Germany participate significantly in the conception and completion of such programs. The more and more urgent questions from politics and from the public have prompted the Federal Government under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology to increase these efforts. In this the Federal Government will also be supported by the Scientific Advisory Committee appointed by it, which annually presents a report on the state of global changes and their consequences. In this brochure the Conceptual Framework for Research on Global Changes is presented, which was passed by the Federal Cabinet in April 1992. It is documenting the advanced state of research, which has already been achieved in this country. At the same time, however, it is made clear that significant further steps have to be taken to contribute to the solution of the most urgent problems of the world. (orig.)

  18. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  19. framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Dermody

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  20. Internal modelling under Risk-Based Capital (RBC) framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Ang Siew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    Very often the methods for the internal modelling under the Risk-Based Capital framework make use of the data which are in the form of run-off triangle. The present research will instead extract from a group of n customers, the historical data for the sum insured si of the i-th customer together with the amount paid yij and the amount aij reported but not yet paid in the j-th development year for j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. We model the future value (yij+1, aij+1) to be dependent on the present year value (yij, aij) and the sum insured si via a conditional distribution which is derived from a multivariate power-normal mixture distribution. For a group of given customers with different original purchase dates, the distribution of the aggregate claims liabilities may be obtained from the proposed model. The prediction interval based on the distribution for the aggregate claim liabilities is found to have good ability of covering the observed aggregate claim liabilities.

  1. Introduction: Greening the countryside? Changing frameworks of EU agricultural policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Philip; Feindt, Peter H; Vihinen, Hilkka

    2010-01-01

    In response to wide-ranging criticism of agricultural policy, especially within Western industrialized countries, new frameworks of justification are emerging and new hybrid policy fields have been established to tackle some of the ‘externalities’ of agricultural support. However, institutional frameworks are proving slower to change, partly because this would require coordinated action across different levels of governance. Nevertheless, previously marginalized environmental concerns have successfully gained entrance to agricultural policy networks, while the intersection of trade liberalization and rural diversification have undermined the dominance of the productivist mindset in government. This gives rise to a plurality of policy actors and actions which defy the conventional categories of analysis of agricultural policy, calling for changing frameworks on the polity of agriculture too.

  2. A Framework for Assessing Soil Moisture Deficit and Crop Water Stress at Multiple Space and Time Scales Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Model Platform, Satellite Remote Sensing, and Decision Support System

    KAUST Repository

    Mohanty, Binayak P.

    2016-11-03

    Better understanding of water cycle at different space–time scales would be a key for sustainable water resources, agricultural production, and ecosystems health in the twenty-first century. Efficient agricultural water management is necessary for sustainability of the growing global population. This warrants better predictive tools for aridity (based on precipitation, temperature, land use, and land cover), root zone (~top 1 m) soil moisture deficit, and crop water stress at farm, county, state, region, and national level, where decisions are made to allocate and manage the water resources. It will provide useful strategies for not only efficient water use but also for reducing potential risk of crop failure due to agricultural drought. Leveraging heavily on ongoing multiscale hydrologic modeling, data assimilation, soil moisture dynamics, and inverse model development research activities, and ongoing Land Data Assimilation (LDAS) and National Climate Assessment (NCA) indexing efforts we are developing a drought assessment framework. The drought assessment platform includes: (1) developing disaggregation methods for extracting various field-scale (1-km or less) climate indicators from the (SMOS, VIIRS, SMAP, AMSR-2) satellite / LDAS-based soil moisture in conjunction with a multimodel simulation–optimization approach using ensemble of Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer, SVAT (Noah, CLM, VIC, Mosaic in LIS) models; (2) predicting farm/field-scale long-term root zone soil moisture status under various land management and climate scenarios for the past decades in hindcast mode and for the next decades in forecast mode across the USA using effective land surface parameters and meteorological input from Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs; (3) assessing the potential risk of agricultural drought at different space–time scales across the USA based on predicted root zone soil moisture; and (4) evaluating various water management and cropping practices (e

  3. Pests and Agricultural Production under Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ameden, Holly A.; Just, David R.

    2001-01-01

    Although the effect of climate change on agricultural pests has been studied by biologists, thus far, large-scale assessments of climate change and agriculture have not included the impact of pests. We develop a simple theoretical model of farmer-pest interaction under climate change and explore the potential impacts on land values.

  4. A Behavior Change Framework of Health Socialization and Identity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Christopher T.; Stanley, Lauren H. K.

    2017-01-01

    An individual's identity related to health is critically important in terms of the adoption and maintenance of health behaviors, and guides approaches to health change across the lifespan. This article presents a review of the literature and proposes a health socialization and health identity framework, which may be used to clarify challenges in…

  5. 76 FR 67672 - Proposed Foreign-Trade Zone; Genesee County, NY, Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-02

    ... Framework An application has been submitted to the Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (the Board) by the... entry, under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted by the Board (74 FR 1170-1173, 1/12/09...

  6. Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy. (letter)

  7. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  8. The changing framework of the electricity service in Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camplani, A. (ENEL Spa (Italy))

    1993-01-01

    The report outlines the impact on the Italian electricity sector of the general thrust for change deriving from globalization of markets and greater role of free economy. Enlargement of the market - within a regulatory context to account for specificities of electricity, customer service, of infrastructure - is being followed. Nationalization in 1963 was characterized by a single Board (ENEL) providing service at national level, access of all potential customers, even in remote rural areas, and a single tariff system for the whole country. However, nationalization left significant space for self-production, one of the largest shares in the industrialized world, and exempted viable municipal utilities from the merger. After the second oil crisis, deregulation was initiated in generation for minihydro, waste, other renewables, with subsidies and favourable prices for the kWh supplied to the network. A significant acceleration of this process, aimed at harnessing all indigenous resources that would contribute to reduce the severe dependence of Italy on imported energy, materialized in 1991. This legislation sets forth favourable terms for third parties' generation from renewables and equivalent energies, characterized by high efficiency. The market responded quickly and, at the end of 1992, several qualifying facilities were tabled by independent producers. Further, deregulation in generation is seen favourably by ENEL under 'competitive bidding' rules. Discusses privatization of ENEL, part of a wider Government operation intended to align the Italian productive sector with those in the European economies, by a drastic reduction of State ownership and entry of private capital. The present situation of ENEL and the electric sector concerning deregulation, institutional and legal framework, and entrepreneurial freedom form the conclusion. 6 tabs.

  9. Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

  10. The deep ocean under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-13

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Early intervention regime under the bank resolution framework in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The legal frameworks in most jurisdictions make provision for early intervention in bank resolution as an exception to the general corporate formal insolvency regime. The exercise of the early intervention powers however contravenes well established shareholder rights and gives rise to legal acrimony as seen in the deluge ...

  12. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  13. A framework for the organizational assumptions underlying safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Packer, Charles

    2002-01-01

    The safety culture of the nuclear organization can be addressed at the three levels of culture proposed by Edgar Schein. The industry literature provides a great deal of insight at the artefact and espoused value levels, although as yet it remains somewhat disorganized. There is, however, an overall lack of understanding of the assumption level of safety culture. This paper describes a possible framework for conceptualizing the assumption level, suggesting that safety culture is grounded in unconscious beliefs about the nature of the safety problem, its solution and how to organize to achieve the solution. Using this framework, the organization can begin to uncover the assumptions at play in its normal operation, decisions and events and, if necessary, engage in a process to shift them towards assumptions more supportive of a strong safety culture. (author)

  14. Bulgarian clusters under development: Political framework and results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bankova Yovka

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The idea of clusters is not new but nowadays clusters are in a highlight again. Through cluster policies the countries aim at raising their national competitiveness. The paper deals with two objectives - discussion and evaluation of the strategic framework for clusters in Bulgaria and an analysis of the state of Bulgarian clusters. The paper presents briefly general issues concerning the national competitiveness and clusters as being one of the possible instruments to achieve a sustainable competitiveness. The practice of the policy in the EU in the field of clusters is the basis for conclusions about the role of the governments. The second part deals with the strategic framework for the cluster initiatives in Bulgaria and with a selection of indicators about the SMEs and clusters in the country. On this basis a conclusion about the development stage of Bulgarian clusters is derived.

  15. Elements of a framework treaty on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, E.L.

    1991-01-01

    A framework treaty on climate change should contain three essential elements. The first is a statement of goals, principles, and general obligations. The second is language establishing the procedures for negotiation and adoption of supplementary protocols. The third is specific provision for a series of auxiliary measures designed to encourage the voluntary adoption of national commitments, permit the monitoring of compliance with those commitments, and mobilize domestic and international public opinion. To give effect to this framework, the treaty should also entrust to a permanent multilateral body such functions as data collection, laying the groundwork for supplementary protocols, administering the auxiliary measures, providing technical assistance to member states, and monitoring national performance. It should also create a special fund for the support of these activities

  16. Development Context Driven Change Awareness and Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Anita; Branchaud, Josh; Dwyer, Matthew B.; Person, Suzette; Rungta, Neha; Wang, Yurong; Elbaum, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Recent work on workspace monitoring allows conflict prediction early in the development process, however, these approaches mostly use syntactic differencing techniques to compare different program versions. In contrast, traditional change-impact analysis techniques analyze related versions of the program only after the code has been checked into the master repository. We propose a novel approach, DeCAF (Development Context Analysis Framework), that leverages the development context to scope a change impact analysis technique. The goal is to characterize the impact of each developer on other developers in the team. There are various client applications such as task prioritization, early conflict detection, and providing advice on testing that can benefit from such a characterization. The DeCAF framework leverages information from the development context to bound the iDiSE change impact analysis technique to analyze only the parts of the code base that are of interest. Bounding the analysis can enable DeCAF to efficiently compute the impact of changes using a combination of program dependence and symbolic execution based approaches.

  17. 77 FR 69435 - Proposed Foreign-Trade Zone-Tunica County, MS; Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board Proposed Foreign-Trade Zone--Tunica County, MS; Under Alternative Site Framework... Customs and Border Protection port of entry, under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted by the...

  18. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  19. Comparison of clinical hematological changes under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of this study were to compare the clinical hematological changes under anesthetization in Crucian carp (Carassius auratus auratus) due to treatment with local anesthetics. Our data indicate that the values declined significantly (P < 0.05) with dissolved oxygen amount after anesthetization, furthermore, the ...

  20. [Cone-beam pseudo lambda tomography under FDK framework].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Ma, Jian-hua; Chen, Ling-jian; Bi, Yi-ming; Chen, Wu-fan

    2009-10-01

    The medical CT scanner is rapidly evolving from the fan-beam mode to the cone-beam geometry mode. In this paper, a new cone-beam pseudo Lambda tomography was proposed based on the Noo's fan beam super-short scan formula and FDK framework. The proposed pseudo-LT algorithm, which avoids the computation of any PI line and any differential operation, has a significant practical implementation, thus leading to the images with quality improvement and reduced artifacts. The results in the simulation studies confirm the observation that the new algorithm can improve the image resolution over the traditional algorithms with noise projection data.

  1. Framework for projecting employment and population changes accompanying energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenehjem, E.J.; Metzger, J.E.

    1980-05-01

    This report provides a framework which energy planners can use to readily estimate the size and timing of the population and employment changes associated with energy development. The direct employment requirements for eight different technologies are listed. This direct employment requirement can be combined with the set of employment multipliers and other information provided to obtain practical estimates of the employment and population impacts of new energy development. Some explanation is given for the variation of the multipliers among counties in the same region. A description is presented of a demographic model for deriving the annual population changes that can be expected as a result of in-migrating workers and their families. Several hypothetical examples of the procedure for making the calculations are discussed as practical exercises in using the multipliers. The necessary data are provided for obtaining estimates of population and employment changes in any county in the US.

  2. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  3. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.......Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...

  4. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  5. A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

  6. Brazil and the UN framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques De Souza, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Due to a high share (96%) of hydropower generation in its electricity production, Brazil emits relatively small amounts of CO 2 . It is argued that, because developed countries are responsible for some 65% of the global emissions of GHGs, they should start to reduce their greenhouse gas emission, which follows also directly from the Framework Convention on Climate Change. After ratification of the Convention Brazil has taken all steps to implement the Convention and to assess its greenhouse gas emissions. Various advisory and co-ordinating bodies have been installed by decree in mid 1994. (author). 1 fig., 1 tab

  7. Climate Change Education as an Integral Part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), through its Article 6, and the Convention's Kyoto Protocol, through its Article 10 (e), call on governments to develop and implement educational programmes on climate change and its effects. In particular, Article 6 of the Convention, which addresses the issue of climate…

  8. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  9. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Frequent price changes under menu costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Per Svejstrup

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on a single firm's pricing behaviour in a dynamic menu cost model that results in (S,s)-rules where the price is fixed inside a band. It will be demonstrated that even though the band of inaction widens in response to increased uncertainty......, the price may be changed more frequent in the short run, and in the long run it definitely will. Hence, observing frequent price changes is not necessarily inconsistent with a firm operating under menu costs. This paper relies on an article by Dixit (1991), (Review of Economic studies, 58, 141...

  11. An evolutionary framework for cultural change: Selectionism versus communal exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabora, Liane

    2013-06-01

    Dawkins' replicator-based conception of evolution has led to widespread mis-application of selectionism across the social sciences because it does not address the paradox that necessitated the theory of natural selection in the first place: how do organisms accumulate change when traits acquired over their lifetime are obliterated? This is addressed by von Neumann's concept of a self-replicating automaton (SRA). A SRA consists of a self-assembly code that is used in two distinct ways: (1) actively deciphered during development to construct a self-similar replicant, and (2) passively copied to the replicant to ensure that it can reproduce. Information that is acquired over a lifetime is not transmitted to offspring, whereas information that is inherited during copying is transmitted. In cultural evolution there is no mechanism for discarding acquired change. Acquired change can accumulate orders of magnitude faster than, and quickly overwhelm, inherited change due to differential replication of variants in response to selection. This prohibits a selectionist but not an evolutionary framework for culture and the creative processes that fuel it. The importance non-Darwinian processes in biological evolution is increasingly recognized. Recent work on the origin of life suggests that early life evolved through a non-Darwinian process referred to as communal exchange that does not involve a self-assembly code, and that natural selection emerged from this more haphazard, ancestral evolutionary process. It is proposed that communal exchange provides an evolutionary framework for culture that enables specification of cognitive features necessary for a (real or artificial) societies to evolve culture. This is supported by a computational model of cultural evolution and a conceptual network based program for documenting material cultural history, and it is consistent with high levels of human cooperation.

  12. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

    2017-06-01

    Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. A structural framework for anomalous change detection and characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, Lakshman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Theiler, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present a spatially adaptive scheme for automatically searching a pair of images of a scene for unusual and interesting changes. Our motivation is to bring into play structural aspects of image features alongside the spectral attributes used for anomalous change detection (ACD). We leverage a small but informative subset of pixels, namely edge pixels of the images, as anchor points of a Delaunay triangulation to jointly decompose the images into a set of triangular regions, called trixels, which are spectrally uniform. Such decomposition helps in image regularization by simple-function approximation on a feature-adaptive grid. Applying ACD to this trixel grid instead of pixels offers several advantages. It allows: (1) edge-preserving smoothing of images, (2) speed-up of spatial computations by significantly reducing the representation of the images, and (3) the easy recovery of structure of the detected anomalous changes by associating anomalous trixels with polygonal image features. The latter facility further enables the application of shape-theoretic criteria and algorithms to characterize the changes and recognize them as interesting or not. This incorporation of spatial information has the potential to filter out some spurious changes, such as due to parallax, shadows, and misregistration, by identifying and filtering out those that are structurally similar and spatially pervasive. Our framework supports the joint spatial and spectral analysis of images, potentially enabling the design of more robust ACD algorithms.

  15. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  16. Interaction Between Ecohydrologic Dynamics and Microtopographic Variability Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phong V. V.; Kumar, Praveen

    2017-10-01

    Vegetation acclimation resulting from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, along with response to increased temperature and altered rainfall pattern, is expected to result in emergent behavior in ecologic and hydrologic functions. We hypothesize that microtopographic variability, which are landscape features typically of the length scale of the order of meters, such as topographic depressions, will play an important role in determining this dynamics by altering the persistence and variability of moisture. To investigate these emergent ecohydrologic dynamics, we develop a modeling framework, Dhara, which explicitly incorporates the control of microtopographic variability on vegetation, moisture, and energy dynamics. The intensive computational demand from such a modeling framework that allows coupling of multilayer modeling of the soil-vegetation continuum with 3-D surface-subsurface flow processes is addressed using hybrid CPU-GPU parallel computing framework. The study is performed for different climate change scenarios for an intensively managed agricultural landscape in central Illinois, USA, which is dominated by row-crop agriculture, primarily soybean (Glycine max) and maize (Zea mays). We show that rising CO2 concentration will decrease evapotranspiration, thus increasing soil moisture and surface water ponding in topographic depressions. However, increased atmospheric demand from higher air temperature overcomes this conservative behavior resulting in a net increase of evapotranspiration, leading to reduction in both soil moisture storage and persistence of ponding. These results shed light on the linkage between vegetation acclimation under climate change and microtopography variability controls on ecohydrologic processes.

  17. Frameworks for change in healthcare organisations: a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Graham P; Sutton, Elizabeth; Willars, Janet; Dixon-Woods, Mary

    2013-08-01

    Organisational change in complex healthcare systems is a multifaceted process. The English National Health Service recently introduced a 'Change Model' that seeks to offer an evidence-based framework for guiding change. We report findings from a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model and make recommendations for those developing the Model and its users. The evaluation involved 28 interviews with managers and clinicians making use of the Change Model in relation to a variety of projects. Interviews were fully transcribed and were analysed using an approach based on the Framework method. Participants saw the Change Model as valuable and practically useful. Fidelity to core principles of the Model was variable: participants often altered the Model, especially when using it to orchestrate the work of others. In challenging organisational contexts, the Change Model was sometimes used to delegitimise opposition rather than identify shared purpose among different interest groups. Those guiding change may benefit from frameworks, guidance and toolkits to structure and inform their planning and activities. Participants' experiences suggested the Change Model has much potential. Further work on its design and on supporting materials may optimise the approach, but its utility rests in particular on organisational cultures that support faithful application. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  18. A systematic framework for enterprise-wide optimization: Synthesis and design of processing network under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quaglia, Alberto; Sarup, Bent; Sin, Gürkan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a systematic framework for synthesis and design of processing networks under uncertaintyis presented. Through the framework, an enterprise-wide optimization problem is formulated and solvedunder uncertain conditions, to identify the network (composed of raw materials, process techn...

  19. Sustainability assessment of regional water resources under the DPSIR framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shikun; Wang, Yubao; Liu, Jing; Cai, Huanjie; Wu, Pute; Geng, Qingling; Xu, Lijun

    2016-01-01

    Fresh water is a scarce and critical resource in both natural and socioeconomic systems. Increasing populations combined with an increasing demand for water resources have led to water shortages worldwide. Current water management strategies may not be sustainable, and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize the water budget deficit. Sustainable water resources management is essential because it ensures the integration of social, economic, and environmental issues into all stages of water resources management. This paper establishes the indicators to evaluate the sustainability of water utilization based on the Drive-Pressure-Status-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, a comprehensive assessment of changes to the sustainability of the water resource system in the city of Bayannur was conducted using these indicators. The results indicate that there is an increase in the driving force of local water consumption due to changes in society, economic development, and the consumption structure of residents. The pressure on the water system increased, whereas the status of the water resources continued to decrease over the study period due to the increasing drive indicators. The local government adopted a series of response measures to relieve the decreasing water resources and alleviate the negative effects of the increasing driver in demand. The response measures improved the efficiency of water usage to a large extent, but the large-scale expansion in demands brought a rebounding effect, known as ;Jevons paradox; At the same time, the increasing emissions of industrial and agriculture pollutants brought huge pressures to the regional water resources environment, which caused a decrease in the sustainability of regional water resources. Changing medium and short-term factors, such as regional economic pattern, technological levels, and water utilization practices, can contribute to the sustainable utilization of

  20. Water and Power Systems Co-optimization under a High Performance Computing Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan, Y.; Arumugam, S.; DeCarolis, J.; Mahinthakumar, K.

    2016-12-01

    Water and energy systems optimizations are traditionally being treated as two separate processes, despite their intrinsic interconnections (e.g., water is used for hydropower generation, and thermoelectric cooling requires a large amount of water withdrawal). Given the challenges of urbanization, technology uncertainty and resource constraints, and the imminent threat of climate change, a cyberinfrastructure is needed to facilitate and expedite research into the complex management of these two systems. To address these issues, we developed a High Performance Computing (HPC) framework for stochastic co-optimization of water and energy resources to inform water allocation and electricity demand. The project aims to improve conjunctive management of water and power systems under climate change by incorporating improved ensemble forecast models of streamflow and power demand. First, by downscaling and spatio-temporally disaggregating multimodel climate forecasts from General Circulation Models (GCMs), temperature and precipitation forecasts are obtained and input into multi-reservoir and power systems models. Extended from Optimus (Optimization Methods for Universal Simulators), the framework drives the multi-reservoir model and power system model, Temoa (Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis), and uses Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to solve high dimensional stochastic problems. The utility of climate forecasts on the cost of water and power systems operations is assessed and quantified based on different forecast scenarios (i.e., no-forecast, multimodel forecast and perfect forecast). Analysis of risk management actions and renewable energy deployments will be investigated for the Catawba River basin, an area with adequate hydroclimate predicting skill and a critical basin with 11 reservoirs that supplies water and generates power for both North and South Carolina. Further research using this scalable decision supporting framework will provide

  1. Transports and climate change: framework for public action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bureau, D.

    2008-01-01

    The author proposes an analysis of instruments to be implemented within the frame of a 'transports and climate change' sector-based plan. This analysis is based on a modelling of this sector, and includes some of the instruments proposed in the Stern report. After a presentation of this analysis framework, the author comments the issue of articulating technological policies and those aiming at the modification of behaviours through the setting of an appropriate price-signal. This aspect is further studied by taking a pre-existing substantial fuel taxing into account. Then the issue of articulation with transport policy is examined for the assessment of infrastructures which would be alternative to roads

  2. QUESTIONS TO REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS UNDER IFRS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Shvets

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available With the system approach in article analyzes the situation and problems of legal regulation and providing accounting and financial reporting in terms of standardization and harmonization of the principles of IFRS. The evaluation of the provisions and objectives of the strategy for reform of accounting and reporting rules and the requirements of European integration processes. Analyzed and determined the degree of influence of accounting and analytical science and education for the development and implementation of new approaches to the reform process and regulation of accounting, control and audit. critical analysis of the draft amendments to the existing regulations, current views on instytutsiynist accounting under uncertainty and systemic crisis outlined organizational problems and possible solutions to methodological council of accounting.

  3. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

    2018-01-01

    AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

  4. 78 FR 27953 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ... terminate authority for Sites 20-22 if no foreign-status merchandise is admitted for a bona fide customs... Zone 147 Under Alternative Site Framework Reading, Pennsylvania Pursuant to its authority under the... application to the Board (FTZ Docket B-79-2012, docketed 11-1-2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF...

  5. On user behaviour adaptation under interface change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin S

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Rosman2_2014_ABSTRACT ONLY.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 2213 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Rosman2_2014_ABSTRACT ONLY.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8... International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces, Haifa, Israel, 24-27 February 2014 On User Behaviour Adaptation Under Interface Change Benjamin Rosman_ Subramanian Ramamoorthy M. M. Hassan Mahmud School of Informatics University of Edinburgh...

  6. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  7. The role of accounting practices in a radical change process : towards a comprehensive change framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer-Kooistra, Jeltje van der

    2001-01-01

    This paper is concerned with investigating the role of accounting practices in radical change processes. The institutional framework has been taken as a starting point in investigating these processes. The research has been carried out at the Dutch Railways. This company was forced by the Dutch

  8. Analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning management in the 21st Century under education THAILAND 4.0 framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedaman, Pornchai; Buaraphan, Khajornsak; Pimdee, Paitoon; Yuenyong, Chokchai; Sukkamart, Aukkapong; Suksup, Charoen

    2018-01-01

    This article aims to study and analyze the 21st Century of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework, and factor analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative approaches in collecting data including a questionnaire survey, a documentary review and a Participatory Action Learning (PAL). The sample were sampling purposively. There were 225 administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Area Offices throughout Thailand. Out of 225, 183 (83.33%) and 42 (16.67%) respondents were the administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Offices, respectively. The quantitative data was analyzed by descriptive statistical analysis including mean, standard deviation. Also, the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was conducted to analyze the factors associated with sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework. The qualitative data was analyzed by using three main stages, i.e., data reduction, data organization, data interpretation to conclusion. The study revealed that sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework needs to focus on development, awareness of duty and responsibility, equality, moral and knowledge. All aspects should be integrated together in order to achieve the organizational goals, good governance culture and identity. Importantly, there were six "key" elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework: i) Professional Leadership Role, ii) Leadership Under Change, iii) Leadership Skills 4.0 in the 21st Century, iv) Development in the Pace With Change, v) Creativity and Creative Tension, and vi) Hold True Assessments. The CFA showed that the six key elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework by weight of each elements were significant at the .01 significance level.

  9. Testing a Conceptual Change Model Framework for Visual Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finson, Kevin D.; Pedersen, Jon E.

    2015-01-01

    An emergent data analysis technique was employed to test the veracity of a conceptual framework constructed around visual data use and instruction in science classrooms. The framework incorporated all five key components Vosniadou (2007a, 2007b) described as existing in a learner's schema: framework theory, presuppositions, conceptual domains,…

  10. Understanding the Paris agreement: analysing the reporting requirements under the enhanced transparency framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desgain, Denis DR; Sharma, Sudhir

    At the Paris climate conference (COP-21) in December 2015, the Conference of the Parties decided to adopt the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This was the first time that 195 Parties had agreed on a universal, legally binding climate instrument....... The Agreement will enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention, accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 percent of total global greenhouse gas emissions, will have deposited their instruments of ratification/acceptance/approval/accession. As of 5......th October 2016, 74 Par¬ties had ratified the Agreement, accounting for 58.82% of global GHG emissions.1 The Paris Agreement will thus enter into force on 4th November 2016....

  11. Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

    2016-03-01

    Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

  12. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...

  13. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  14. A multidimensional framework of conceptual change for developing chemical equilibrium learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanyoo, Wassana; Suwannoi, Paisan; Treagust, David F.

    2018-01-01

    The purposes of this research is to investigate the existing chemical equilibrium lessons in Thailand based on the multidimensional framework of conceptual change, to determine how the existing lessons could enhance students' conceptual change. This research was conducted based on qualitative perspective. Document, observations and interviews were used to collect data. To comprehend all students conceptions, diagnostic tests were applied comprised of The Chemical Equilibrium Diagnostic Test (the CEDT) and The Chemical Equilibrium Test for Reveal Conceptual Change (the CETforRCC). In addition, to study students' motivations, the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (the MSLQ) and students' task engagement were applied. Following each perspective of conceptual change - ontological, epistemological, and social/affective - the result showed that the existing chemical equilibrium unit did not enhance students' conceptual change, and some issues were found. The problems obstructed students conceptual change should be remedy under the multidimensional framework of conceptual change. Finally, some suggestions were provided to enhance students' conceptual change in chemical equilibrium effectively

  15. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils......The FDA hydrolysis capacities and bacterial biomass concentrations (estimated by determination of ATP content) of growth cultures prepared from activated sludge and wastewater, were measured to find out whether the FDA activity would reflect bacterial biomass under different physiological states...

  16. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  17. 76 FR 4865 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-27

    ... Commission, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 104, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 51-2010... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1736] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 104 Under Alternative Site Framework Savannah, GA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign...

  18. 76 FR 28213 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1758] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 51 Under Alternative Site Framework; Duluth, MN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... Foreign-Trade Zone 51, submitted an application to the Board (FTZ Docket 58-2010, filed 10/1/2010, amended...

  19. 78 FR 59650 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 40 Under Alternative Site Framework Cleveland, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1916] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 40 Under Alternative Site Framework Cleveland, Ohio Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... CFR 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the Cleveland...

  20. 76 FR 50172 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 216 Under Alternative Site Framework, Olympia, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1777] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 216 Under Alternative Site Framework, Olympia, WA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Port of Olympia...

  1. 76 FR 80886 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 277 Under Alternative Site Framework; Western Maricopa...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1804] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 277 Under Alternative Site Framework; Western Maricopa County, AZ Pursuant to its authority under... for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, Greater Maricopa Foreign...

  2. 77 FR 41373 - Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 99 Under Alternative Site Framework...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1839] Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 99 Under Alternative Site Framework; Wilmington, DE Pursuant to its authority under the.../2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the State...

  3. 76 FR 63283 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 59 Under Alternative Site Framework; Lincoln, NE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1783] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 59 Under Alternative Site Framework; Lincoln, NE Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade...) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Lincoln...

  4. 77 FR 65361 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-z Under Alternative Site Framework; Galveston, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1863] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-z Under Alternative Site Framework; Galveston, TX Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... CFR 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the Board of...

  5. 75 FR 13261 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 260 under Alternative Site Framework, Lubbock, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1668] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 260 under Alternative Site Framework, Lubbock, Texas Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the City of Lubbock, Texas, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 260...

  6. 75 FR 55309 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 170 Under Alternative Site Framework; Jeffersonville, IN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1704] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 170 Under Alternative Site Framework; Jeffersonville, IN Pursuant to its authority under the... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Ports of Indiana, grantee of Foreign...

  7. 77 FR 59891 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 129 Under Alternative Site Framework Bellingham, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1856] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 129 Under Alternative Site Framework Bellingham, WA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... CFR Sec. 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the Port of...

  8. 75 FR 76953 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 26 Under Alternative Site Framework, Atlanta, GA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1725] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 26 Under Alternative Site Framework, Atlanta, GA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade... reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Georgia Foreign-Trade Zone, Inc., grantee of Foreign- Trade...

  9. 78 FR 10129 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 70 Under Alternative Site Framework, Detroit, MI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1878] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 70 Under Alternative Site Framework, Detroit, MI Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade...(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the Greater Detroit...

  10. Framework agreement on climate change: a scientific and policy history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hecht, A.D.; Tirpak, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is a mixture of journalism and history. It is journalistic in the sense of providing an annotated chronology of key events and publications since 1970 that ultimately led to the signing of the Framework Agreement on Climate Change (herein referred to as the Convention). It is also history in that the authors share their insight on these events and offer their perspective of how science and policy-making interacted. After the signing of the Climate Convention at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (June, 1992), the authors began to think about the many events that led to this historic agreements. When did the process really begin? What were the seminal scientific papers? When did climate change become a policy issue? What lessons do we learn for the future? The authors soon recognized there was no clear beginning to either the science or policy story. Both aspects evolved, with science and policy decisions affecting each other. The resulting history is decidedly a US perspective. While there will no doubt be arguments over the significance of all the events cited as well as the omission of others, the authors have for the first time synthesized the major themes that led to the climate convention. The discussion is organized into three periods of time: 1970-1980 (ending with the first World Climate Conference), 1980-1987 (ending with the US presidential election), and 1988-1992 (signing of the Convention). For each period there is an overall summary and analysis followed by a chronology of selected events. 52 refs

  11. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  12. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  13. Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Vliet, van, M.T.H.; Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This study proposes a modelling framework to incorporate water quality in analyses of cross-sectoral conflicts for water between human uses and ecosystems under climate change and socio-economic changes. ...

  14. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    The FDA hydrolysis capacities and bacterial biomass concentrations (estimated by determination of ATP content) of growth cultures prepared from activated sludge and wastewater, were measured to find out whether the FDA activity would reflect bacterial biomass under different physiological states...... of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils...... revealed differences up to two orders of magnitude of the ratio. Based on these results it was concluded that the FDA activity should not be applied for measurements of viable biomass in environments in which different physiological conditions occur....

  15. New framework for the new era the legislative change in the Japanese utility industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myoi, Hajime

    1996-01-01

    The on-going amendment activity to the legislative framework of the Japanese electric utility industry is discussed. A new strategy for the Japanese utility industry is necessary to meet the challenges in the future. Flexibility and mobility are becoming more important in order to overcome the problems ahead, and the new framework for the industry has to be harmonious with these characteristics. A bill to amend the Japanese Utility Industry Law, is under discussion in the Japanese Parliament. One aspect of the bill is the change in business regulation policy which is expected to increase competition in the industry. A new pricing policy, also a feature of the bill, will contribute to load leveling and an improvement of the load factor in Japanese power companies. (author)

  16. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  17. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and their control in a particular crop. Application of the framework reveals opportunities and threats in crop protection resulting from climate change, and can direct future adaptation efforts.

  18. International cooperative initiatives and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakhtiari, Fatemeh

    2017-01-01

    transparent performance monitoring and reporting mechanisms. The article concludes with two considerations. Firstly, it advocates for the United Nations Environment Programme as one entity that could bring much-needed coordination among ICIs, and between ICIs and national government-led efforts to mitigate...... issues: there is a plethora of uncoordinated initiatives, often lacking specific, time-bound goals; to a greater or lesser extent most initiatives overlap with the activities conducted under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); and few initiatives have set up...

  19. A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, Paul D.; Wolock, David M.; Coupe, Richard H.; Roth, Jason L.

    2018-01-10

    Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity.The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables

  20. Modeling Nonlinear Change via Latent Change and Latent Acceleration Frameworks: Examining Velocity and Acceleration of Growth Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin; Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Mazzocco, Michele

    2013-01-01

    We propose the use of the latent change and latent acceleration frameworks for modeling nonlinear growth in structural equation models. Moving to these frameworks allows for the direct identification of "rates of change" and "acceleration" in latent growth curves--information available indirectly through traditional growth…

  1. Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2...

  2. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is ofte...

  3. Mechanisms of microstructural changes of fuel under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, P.; Carlot, G.; Dorado, B.; Maillard, S.; Sabathier, C.; Martin, G.; Oh, J.Y.; Welland, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear fuels are subjected to high levels of radiation damage mainly due to the slowing of fission fragments, which results in substantial modifications of the initial fuel microstructure. Microstructure changes alter practically all engineering fuel properties such as atomic transport or thermomechanical properties so understanding these changes is essential to predicting the performance of fuel elements. Also, with increasing burn-up, the fuel drifts away from its initial composition as the fission process produces new chemical elements. Because nuclear fuels operate at high temperature and usually under high-temperature gradients, damage annealing, foreign atom or defect clustering and migration occur on multiple time and length scales, which make long-term predictions difficult. The end result is a fuel microstructure which may show extensive differences on the scale of a single fuel pellet. The main challenge we are faced with is, therefore, to identify the phenomena occurring on the atom scale that are liable to have macroscopic effects that will determine the microstructure changes and ultimately the life-span of a fuel element. One step towards meeting this challenge is to develop and apply experimental or modelling methods capable of connecting events that occur over very short length and timescales to changes in the fuel microstructure over engineering length and timescales. In the first part of this chapter, we provide an overview of some of the more important microstructure modifications observed in nuclear fuels. The emphasis is placed on oxide fuels because of the extensive amount of data available in relation to these materials under neutron or ion irradiation. When possible and relevant, the specifics of other types of fuels such as metallic or carbide fuels are alluded to. Throughout this chapter but more specifically in the latter part, we attempt to give examples of how modelling and experimentation at various scales can provide us with

  4. Land-Cover and Land-Use Change under Changing Climate in the Eurasian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutman, G.

    2009-04-01

    An overview of the studies conducted in the framework of the NASA Land-Cover/Land- Use Change Program focused on the Eurasian Arctic will be presented. It includes discussion of vegetation changes under climate warming and implications to carbon cycle, changes in environmental pollution, hydrologic cycle, and impacts on society. Climate change can affect land cover in the Arctic through changes in the surface reflectivity and hydrology due to changes in snow melt timing; impacts of black carbon emitted by fires and settled on bright surfaces; changes in sea ice and the consequent change in ocean circulation affecting vegetation cover patterns indirectly; and changes in the amounts of greenhouse gases emission due to permafrost melting, especially in peatlands, as warming progresses. The Arctic Eurasia is being affected by global and regional external factors that are causing its change and the positive feedbacks to this forcing may further exaggerate the situation. If the warming trend continues it will have a tremendous impact on all aspects of land cover in the Arctic region with considerable consequences at the global scale. It will cause significant changes in the natural land cover, and perhaps even greater changes in the areas where the land cover has already been considerably modified by human activities. Major changes have already taken place in how land is used in the Arctic. In many regions, there has been a clear shift from the land use practiced by indigenous people to intensive exploitation of the land for commercial and industrial uses. Results on the climate/environment - land-cover interactions will be presented.

  5. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  6. Head Teachers' Experiences of School Inspection under Ofsted's January 2012 Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on head teachers' experiences of inspection under Ofsted's revised school inspection framework, their views of its principles and its implications for school leaders and leadership. The article draws on findings from a mixed-methods study to show that inspections are more focused on pupils' attainment and progress. Head…

  7. 78 FR 4382 - Proposed Foreign-Trade Zone-Northwest Iowa; Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [B-4-2013] Proposed Foreign-Trade Zone--Northwest Iowa; Under Alternative Site Framework An application has been submitted to the Foreign-Trade Zones Board (the Board) by the Northwest Iowa Development Corporation to establish a foreign-trade zone (FTZ...

  8. 75 FR 68605 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 177 Under Alternative Site Framework; Mount Vernon...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1721] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 177 Under Alternative Site Framework; Mount Vernon/Evansville, Indiana Pursuant to its authority... the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Ports of Indiana, grantee...

  9. 76 FR 63283 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 137 under Alternative Site Framework Washington Dulles...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1787] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 137 under Alternative Site Framework Washington Dulles International Airport, VA Area Pursuant to... FR 71069-71070, 11/22/10) as an option for [[Page 63284

  10. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  11. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  12. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    . We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our......Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  13. Forecasting autoregressive time series under changing persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson

    Changing persistence in time series models means that a structural change from nonstationarity to stationarity or vice versa occurs over time. Such a change has important implications for forecasting, as negligence may lead to inaccurate model predictions. This paper derives generally applicable...... recommendations, no matter whether a change in persistence occurs or not. Seven different forecasting strategies based on a biasedcorrected estimator are compared by means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study. The results for decreasing and increasing persistence are highly asymmetric and new to the literature. Its...

  14. Life in Europe under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alcamo, J.; Olesen, Jørgen E

    Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked...... changes in vegetation cover, increased floods along rivers and coastlines as well as more frequent droughts and forest fires, often leading to large societal costs. The changes will be minor in some cases, profound in others, but in any case, pervasive....

  15. Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the

  16. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and

  17. New insights into health financing: First results of the international data collection under the System of Health Accounts 2011 framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Michael; Morgan, David

    2017-07-01

    International comparisons of health spending and financing are most frequently carried out using datasets of international organisations based on the System of Health Accounts (SHA). This accounting framework has recently been updated and 2016 saw the first international data collection under the new SHA 2011 guidelines. In addition to reaching better comparability of health spending figures and greater country coverage, the updated framework has seen changes in the dimension of health financing leading to important consequences when analysing health financing data. This article presents the first results of health spending and financing data collected under this new framework and highlights the areas where SHA 2011 has become a more useful tool for policy analysis, by complementing data on expenditure of health financing schemes with information about their revenue streams. It describes the major conceptual changes in the scope of health financing and highlights why comprehensive analyses based on SHA 2011 can provide for a more complete description and comparison of health financing across countries, facilitate a more meaningful discussion of fiscal sustainability of health spending by also analysing the revenues of compulsory public schemes and help to clarify the role of governments in financing health care - which is generally much bigger than previously documented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and Kyoto protocol 2010. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2008; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2010. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strogies, Michael; Gniffke, Patrick (comps.)

    2010-06-15

    As a Party to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since 1994 Germany has been obliged to prepare, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force. As a result, for the first time ever the international community of nations is required to implement binding action objectives and instruments for global climate protection. This leads to extensive obligations vis-a-vis the preparation, reporting and review of emissions inventories. As a result of Europe's own implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, via the adoption of EU Decision 280/20041, these requirements became legally binding for Germany in spring 2004. Pursuant to Decision 3/CP.5, all The purpose of such reports is to ensure the transparency, consistency and comparability of inventories and support the independent review process. The Secretariat of the Framework Convention on Climate Change has made submission of the inventory report a pre-requisite for performance of the agreed inventory reviews. Germany now presents its eighth National Inventory Report (NIR 2010), following its inventories for the years 1990 to 2008. This latest report covers the same period (1990 to 2008), and it describes the methods and the data sources on which the calculations are based. This year, the NIR contains, for the first time, an additional Part II, along with additional sub-chapters in the existing part, in conformance with expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant decisions at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, this chapter describes the basic principles and methods with which the emissions and sinks of the IPCC categories

  19. A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

    2016-01-01

    Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

  20. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

    2009-01-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer...

  1. impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming

    OpenAIRE

    SAKALLI ABDULLA; DOSIO ALESSANDRO; CESCATTI ALESSANDRO

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming has been assessed in the framework of the FP7 project IMPACT2C. Results have been published on official IMPACT2C web-atlas, available here: https://www.atlas.impact2c.eu/en/?no_popup=True

  2. An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

    2014-03-01

    This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management

  3. HSE under ever-changing conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiborg, R.

    1996-01-01

    The paper relates to the health, safety and environment (HSE) area on the Ekofisk field on the Norwegian continental shelf. Experience from the first twenty years operation indicated that rapid forced change to introduce new technology and work methods had a tendency to increase the number of negative events in HSE. In 1991/92 significant changes had to be initiated in order to continue safe operations, reduce downtime, deliver the service expected by third parties and secure economically viable operations into the next century. The last 4-5 years prove that a motivated work force, with solid well planned programs and the right tools, can achieve both improved HSE performance and reduce shut-downs in the middle of accelerated change programs. 14 figs

  4. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  5. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  6. A Scientific Decision Framework for Supplier Selection under Interval Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Krishankumar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new scientific decision framework (SDF under interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF environment for supplier selection (SS. The framework consists of two phases, where, in the first phase, criteria weights are estimated in a sensible manner using newly proposed IVIF based statistical variance (SV method and, in the second phase, the suitable supplier is selected using ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing REality ranking method under IVIF environment. This method involves three categories of outranking, namely, strong, moderate, and weak. Previous studies on ELECTRE ranking reveal that scholars have only used two categories of outranking, namely, strong and weak, in the formulation of IVIF based ELECTRE, which eventually aggravates fuzziness and vagueness in decision making process due to the potential loss of information. Motivated by this challenge, third outranking category, called moderate, is proposed, which considerably reduces the loss of information by improving checks to the concordance and discordance matrices. Thus, in this paper, IVIF-ELECTRE (IVIFE method is presented and popular TOPSIS method is integrated with IVIFE for obtaining a linear ranking. Finally, the practicality of the proposed framework is demonstrated using SS example and the strength of proposed SDF is realized by comparing the framework with other similar methods.

  7. Nutritional Status of Maasai Pastoralists under Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, Kathleen A; Beeton, Tyler A; Boone, Randall B; BurnSilver, Shauna B

    This study assesses the nutritional status of Maasai pastoralists living in a period of great social, economic and ecological changes in Kajiado County, southern Kenya. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences were collected from 534 individuals in the year 2000. The data were used to describe mean differences in human nutrition between ages, sexes, and within and among three Group Ranches. Nutritional data and diet recall data were compared with past studies of Maasai nutrition from 1930 to 2000. Results indicate that nutritional status is poor and has remained so despite numerous changes to the social-ecological system including livelihood diversification, sedentarization, human population growth and decreased access to vegetation heterogeneity. Imbirikani Group Ranch had better access to infrastructure and markets and some measures of nutritional status were better than for individuals in other group ranches. However, nutritional status remains poor despite transitioning to greater market integration.

  8. Investors Behavior under Changing Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Daviou, Agustin; Paraschiv, Florentina

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the reaction of the S&P 500 returns to changes in implied volatility given by the VIX index, using a daily data sample from 1990 to 2012. We found that in normal regimes increases (declines) in the expected market volatility result in lower (higher) subsequent stock market returns. Thus, investors enter into selling positions upon a perception of increased risk for their equity investments, while they enter into long positions when they perceive an improved environment for...

  9. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  10. Tax compliance under tax regime changes

    OpenAIRE

    Heinemann, Friedrich; Kocher, Martin G.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we focus on the compliance effects of tax regime changes. According to the economic model of tax evasion, a tax reform should affect compliance through its impact on tax rates and incentives. Our findings demonstrate the importance of at least two further effects not covered by the traditional model: First, reform losers tend to evade more taxes after the reform. Second, a reform from a proportionate to a progressive system decreases compliance compared to a switch in the revers...

  11. Forests under International Climate Change Law

    OpenAIRE

    GORDEEVA, Yelena

    2014-01-01

    Contemporary science proves that the two global environmental problems, such as climate change (CC) and global deforestation, are interdependent. On the one hand, CC disadvantages health and vitality of trees. On the other, forest degradation and deforestation releases carbon stored in each tree and soil into the atmosphere and reduce carbon uptake by forests, thus, contribute to CC. In order to be effective, laws, designed to solve the...

  12. An introduction to the 5M framework: reframing change management education

    OpenAIRE

    Badham,Richard; Cançado,Vera L.; Darief,Temi

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a reflective and critical rhetorical framework capable of replacing traditional approaches to change management and its education. This framework conceptualises managing change as the Mindful Mobilising of Maps, Masks and Mirrors and provides a comprehensive integration of the processual, practice and critical academic literature on change management. It adopts a drama-tic approach, combining dramaturgical and pragmatic approaches to organ...

  13. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  14. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iago Lowe Hale

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use. The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture.

  15. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  16. The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, J.

    2012-12-01

    Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this

  17. Comparative analysis of toxicological evaluations for dermal exposure performed under two different EU regulatory frameworks

    OpenAIRE

    Westerholm, Emma; Schenk, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Dermal exposure to chemicals is highly relevant in relation to the use of cosmetic products, both in consumers and in individuals exposed occupationally. Regulatory frameworks exist within the EU to limit the dermal exposure of the general population and workers to chemicals in general, as well as to limit the use of certain substances in cosmetic products. The objective of the study was to investigate and compare toxicological evaluations of dermal exposure performed under current regulatory...

  18. Diagnosing Management of Agricultural Research and Technology Development under the Agricultural Innovation Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gholamhossein Abdollahzadeh

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed at identifying and analyzing issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework. The survey consisted of two groups: agricultural researchers of Agriculture-Research and Education Organization and all faculty members of public agricultural faculties of Ministry of Scientific, Research and Technology. Using Cochran sampling formula and multi-stage sampling method, 188 researchers and 205 faculty members were s...

  19. Diagnosing Management of Agricultural Research and Technology Development under the Agricultural Innovation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying and analyzing issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework. The survey consisted of two groups: agricultural researchers of Agriculture-Research and Education Organization and all faculty members of public agricultural faculties of Ministry of Scientific, Research and Technology. Using Cochran sampling formula and multi-stage sampling method, 188 researchers and 205 faculty members were selected in order to fill in the survey questionnaire. Using the SPSS, collected data analyzed based on explanatory factor analysis. Totally, factor analysis of three sets of issues and challenges on the agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework led to extract 13 factors, including agricultural structure and policy, infrastructure and resources of agricultural development, supportive services for agricultural development (level of agricultural development, investment and capacity building in research and technology, management of research and technology development, research and technology productivity, research culture, networks for research and technology development (level of national innovation system, agricultural research policy, impacts and effectiveness of agricultural research and technology development, integrated management of research and technology, institutional development for agricultural research and technology and systematic synergy of agricultural research and higher education (level of agricultural innovation system. Totally, these three sets of factors explained 64%, 75% and 73% of the total variances. Finally, using conceptual clustering for the extracted factors, a conceptual model of issues and challenges of agricultural research and technology development under the national innovation framework was presented.

  20. Comparative analysis of toxicological evaluations for dermal exposure performed under two different EU regulatory frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerholm, Emma; Schenk, Linda

    2014-02-01

    Dermal exposure to chemicals is highly relevant in relation to the use of cosmetic products, both in consumers and in individuals exposed occupationally. Regulatory frameworks exist within the EU to limit the dermal exposure of the general population and workers to chemicals in general, as well as to limit the use of certain substances in cosmetic products. The objective of the study was to investigate and compare toxicological evaluations of dermal exposure performed under current regulatory frameworks. The publicly disseminated hazard information under the respective regulatory frameworks was compiled and compared for the five substances resorcinol, p-phenylenediamine, p-aminophenol, N-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine, and diethylene glycol monoethyl ether. A low consistency between evaluations was observed in respect to data coverage and cited dose descriptors. No systematic differences over all five substances were identified from the viewpoint of dermal hazard assessment. The critical effect and corresponding systemic effect dose descriptor was identical for two substances, differed somewhat for two other (a factor of 2-2.5). For N-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine a critical effect was only identified under REACH. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Applying & Publishing GRI framework in Transport Companies Rethink. Redesign. Rebuild. CSR Reporting and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Soares Outtes Wanderley

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Corporations with systematic relationships to tourism are developing activities and publishing CSR reports applying the GRI framework (GRI, 2009. The contribution of tourism to climate change is estimated at between 5% and 12% and by 2050 the amount spent on the tourism sector will consume the entire carbon budget required to avoid dangerous climate change (Scott et al. 2009, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008. This study defines the TC-8 group, a group of transport in tourism related companies, in order to answer the main questions:To what extent is climate change addressed in the CSR reports of transport companies? Climate change is mentioned and receives attention in all of the company reports analysed, however,overall the transport sector shows that in comparison to the GRI/KPMG (2007 survey, it under-performs. Are the companies just reporting direct emissions from production or also broader emissions from the use of the products? Half of these companies report emissions; some include direct and indirect emissions. Further actions can be mentioned such as, companies participating in forums discussing solutions to climate change, assuming shared responsibilities and employing measures such as reducing energy consumption by runningtheir own photovoltaic power unit or planning for a CO2 neutral operation by 2012.

  2. A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Kline, Keith L.; Angelsen, Arild; Verburg, Peter H.; Dale, Virginia H.; Langeveld, Johannes W.A.; McBride, Allen

    2016-01-01

    We propose a causal analysis framework to increase understanding of land-use change (LUC) and the reliability of LUC models. This health-sciences-inspired framework can be applied to determine probable causes of LUC in the context of bioenergy. Calculations of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for

  3. Uncertainty in project phases: A framework for organisational change management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie; Balangalibun, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is an integral challenge when managing organisational change projects (OCPs). Current literature highlights the importance of uncertainty; however, falls short of giving insights into the nature of uncertainty and suggestions for managing it. Specifically, no insights exist on how...... in the early stage of the change project but was delayed until later phases. Furthermore, the sources of uncertainty were found to be predominantly within the organisation that initiated the change project and connected to the project scope. Based on these findings, propositions for future research are defined...

  4. Adaptation in climate change hotspots: Change under way in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-26

    Jan 26, 2015 ... The individual articles are now available online. Vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots in Africa and Asia: key issues for policy-relevant adaptation and resilience-building research (PDF, 282 KB) (Editorial). De Souza, K., Kituyi, E., Leone, M., Harvey, B., Murali, K.S., Ford, J.D. Systematic review ...

  5. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  6. Food and Sustainability Challenges Under Climate Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2016-12-01

    Plants are permanently impacted by their environments, and their abilities to tolerate multiple fluctuating environmental conditions vary as a function of several genetic and natural factors. Over the past decades, scientific innovations and applications of the knowledge derived from biotechnological investigations to agriculture caused a substantial increase of the yields of many crops. However, due to exacerbating effects of climate change and a growing human population, a crisis of malnutrition may arise in the upcoming decades in some places in the world. So, effective, ethical and managerial regulations and fair policies should be set up and applied at the local and global levels so that Earth may fairly provide the food and living accommodation needed by its inhabitants. To save some energy consumption, electric devices (for e.g., smartphones, laptops, street lights, traffic lights, etc.) should be manufactured to work with solar energy, whenever available, particularly in sunny countries where sun is available most of the time. Such characteristic will save energy and make solar energy-based smartphones and laptops less cumbersome in terms of chargers and plugging issues.

  7. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  8. National inventory report for France under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol - CCNUCC, March 2011; Rapport national d'inventaire pour la France au titre de la convention cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques et du protocole de Kyoto - CCNUCC, Mars 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Jean-Pierre; Fontelle, Jean-Pierre; Nicco, Laetitia; Andre, Jean-Marc; Deflorenne, Emmanuel; Druart, Ariane; Gueguen, Celine; Jabot, Julien; Jacquier, Guillaume; Joya, Romain; Martinet, Yann; Mathias, Etienne; Prouteau, Emilie; Serveau, Laetitia; Vincent, Julien; Allemand, Nadine; Bastide, Aurelie; Gavel, Antoine; Kessouar, Sabrina; Tuddenham, Mark [CITEPA, 7 Cite Paradis, 75010 Paris (France); Millard, Frederique; MArtineaud, Helene; MILLION, Aurelien; Nikov, Dimitar [Ministere de l' ecologie, du Developpement durable, des Transports et du Logement - MEDDTL, Direction generale de l' energie et du climat - DGEC, Grande Arche, Tour Pascal A et B, 92055 La Defense Cedex (France); Guittet, Olivier [CCDC Climat, 47, rue de la Victoire, 75009 Paris (France)

    2011-03-15

    This national inventory report supplies emission data for France within the period 1990-2009, concerning all the substances that contribute to enhancing the greenhouse effect, required under: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the second year of commitment to the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). The substances covered are the direct greenhouse gases comprising the Kyoto Protocol 'basket of six': carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), the two species of halogenous substances, hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}). Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), non methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO), have also to be reported by the Parties under the Convention. For the period 1990-2008 as a whole, estimates provided in the previous inventories have been reviewed and corrected to take into account updated statistics, improved knowledge, possible changes in methodology and specifications contained in the guidelines (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9), as defined by the UNFCCC. Several changes have been added to take into account the remarks of the reviews of UNFCCC. Although significant continuous progress has been achieved in terms of the sources covered and the quality of estimates, considerable uncertainties remain concerning emissions. A table indicating uncertainties based on current knowledge has been included. Future reviews of these data are always possible, if not probable, to take into account both changes in methodology and work underway at international level with a view to improving knowledge and rules on compiling and presenting emissions. This report also includes the supplementary information required under Article 7, paragraph 1, and Article 3, paragraph 14 of the Kyoto Protocol. Emissions of the six gases that directly contribute to the greenhouse effect are expressed in terms of

  9. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2011. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2009; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2011. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-06-15

    As a Party to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since 1994 Germany has been obliged to prepare, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases. In February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol entered into force. As a result, for the first time ever the international community of nations is required to implement binding action objectives and instruments for global climate protection. As a result of Europe's own implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, via the adoption of EU Decision 280/20041, these requirements became legally binding for Germany in spring 2004. The Secretariat of the Framework Convention on Climate Change has made submission of the inventory report a pre-requisite for performance of the agreed inventory reviews. Germany now presents its ninth National Inventory Report (NIR 2011), following its inventories for the years 1990 to 2009. This latest report covers the same period (1990 to 2009), and it describes the methods and the data sources on which the calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and, as far as possible, in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). This year, the NIR contains, for the first time, an additional Part II, along with additional sub-chapters in the existing part, in conformance with expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant decisions at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. Chapter 2 provides a general overview of

  10. An ontological framework for requirement change management in distributed environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatoon, A.; Hafeez, Y.; Ali, T.

    2014-01-01

    Global Software Development (GSD) is getting fame in the software industry gradually. However, in GSD, multiple and diverse stakeholders are involved in the development of complex software systems. GSD introduces several challenges, i.e. physical distance, time zone, culture difference, language barriers. As requirements play a significant role in any software development. The greatest challenge in GSD environment is to maintain a consistent view of the system even if the requirements change. But at the same time single change in the requirement might affect several other modules. In GSD different people use terms and have different ways of expressing the concepts for which people at remote sites are unable to get uniformity regarding the semantics of the terms. In a global environment requires effective communication and coordination. However, to overcome inconsistencies and ambiguities among the team members and to make the team members aware of the consistent view, a shared and common understanding is required. In this paper an approach beneficial to software industry has been proposed, focusing on changing requirements in a Global Software Development environment. A case study has been used for the evaluation of the proposed approach. Therefore, Requirements change management process has been improved by applying the approach of the case study. The proposed approach is beneficial to the software development organizations where frequent changes occur. It guided the software industry to provide the common understandings to all the development teams residing in remote locations. (author)

  11. Education and change management in Africa : a new framework for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study describes the nature of human capital development (HCD) in agriculture and rural development, and its implications on current programmes in the institutions of higher learning. This is in view of the fact that the majority of Africans are still trapped in an under performing rural and agricultural environment; and ...

  12. A simulation framework for asset management in climate-change adaptation of transportation infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhamidipati, S.K.

    2014-01-01

    An asset management framework, in an agent-based model with multiple assets, is presented as a tool that can assist in developing long-term climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure.

  13. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalby, J.; Nielsen, L.S.; Lueg, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498.......Dalby, J., Nielsen, Lueg, R., L. S., Pedersen, L., Tomoni, A. C. 2014. National culture and business model change: a framework for successful expansions. Journal of Enterprising Culture, 22(4): 379-498....

  14. Institutional framework in relation to climate change in West and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-12-16

    Dec 16, 2010 ... This paper maps the institutions working in West and Central Africa on issues related to climate change, vulnerability, and adaptation, and assesses a range of institutional strengths and weaknesses. Representatives of 16 institutions in the sub region were surveyed and interviewed.

  15. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K; Buhr, Gwendolen T; McConnell, Eleanor S; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S

    2015-08-01

    To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Indigenous People and Customary Land Ownership Under Domestic REDD+ Frameworks: A Case Study of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen Wright

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is an immense, complex and multifaceted problem, responsible for approximately fifteen percent of global emissions of carbon dioxide. The primary international response to deforestation and land degradation has been the development of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Land Degradation (REDD+ mechanism whereby developed nations pay developing nations to keep their forests standing and well-managed, and generating carbon credits that can be sold on international carbon markets or used to offset other emissions. The international legal arrangements for REDD+ are not yet finalised, yet projects are already being implemented, adding new voices and complexities to forest governance. A particular concern is the well-being of the people that live in forests – customary land owners and Indigenous People – and the need to ensure the recognition and protection of their rights. This paper aims to explore the interaction between domestic legal frameworks implementing the REDD+ mechanism and customary land ownership by using the regulatory regime of Indonesia as a case study. The paper will analyse the domestic legal framework for land ownership, customary law and customary tenure, forestry and REDD+ in Indonesia, and assess how REDD+ projects interact with the rights of Indigenous People under this framework. This analysis explores how threats to Indigenous People and customary land ownership are entrenched at the domestic level. The paper concludes that very little security of tenure is provided to Indigenous People by Indonesia’s domestic REDD+ legal framework and that this shortcoming is likely to result in poor protection of customary land rights under the REDD+ mechanism, regardless of the protection afforded by an eventual international agreement. The paper also notes that Indigenous People are unlikely to be protected unless land tenure reforms are undertaken as a matter of priority to ensure secure customary land

  17. Uncertainty in project phases: A framework for organisational change management

    OpenAIRE

    Kreye, Melanie; Balangalibun, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is an integral challenge when managing organisational change projects (OCPs). Current literature highlights the importance of uncertainty; however, falls short of giving insights into the nature of uncertainty and suggestions for managing it. Specifically, no insights exist on how uncertainty develops over the different phases of OCPs. This paper presents case-based evidence on different sources of uncertainty in OCPs and how these develop over the different project phases. The re...

  18. A Framework for Modelling Connective Tissue Changes in VIIP Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, C. R.; Best, L.; Gleason, R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.; Nelson, E. S.; Samuels, B. C.

    2014-01-01

    Insertion of astronauts into microgravity induces a cascade of physiological adaptations, notably including a cephalad fluid shift. Longer-duration flights carry an increased risk of developing Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, a spectrum of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, choroidal folds, distension of the optic nerve sheath, kinking of the optic nerve and potentially permanent degradation of visual function. The slow onset of changes in VIIP, their chronic nature, and the similarity of certain clinical features of VIIP to ophthalmic findings in patients with raised intracranial pressure strongly suggest that: (i) biomechanical factors play a role in VIIP, and (ii) connective tissue remodeling must be accounted for if we wish to understand the pathology of VIIP. Our goal is to elucidate the pathophysiology of VIIP and suggest countermeasures based on biomechanical modeling of ocular tissues, suitably informed by experimental data, and followed by validation and verification. We specifically seek to understand the quasi-homeostatic state that evolves over weeks to months in space, during which ocular tissue remodeling occurs. This effort is informed by three bodies of work: (i) modeling of cephalad fluid shifts; (ii) modeling of ophthalmic tissue biomechanics in glaucoma; and (iii) modeling of connective tissue changes in response to biomechanical loading.

  19. Climate change in a hydrothermal-thermohaline framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldama Campino, Aitor; Döös, Kristofer

    2017-04-01

    In this study, the response of the oceanic thermohaline circulation and the atmospheric hydrothermal circulation to a future climate change scenario are compared to the present climate. We will use stream functions based on purely thermodynamic coordinates to represent the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in one single representation. The oceanic thermohaline stream function makes it possible to analyse and quantify the entire world-ocean conversion rate between cold/warm and fresh/saline waters. The hydrothermal stream function, the analogous circulation in the atmosphere, captures the conversion rate between cold/warm and dry/humid air. The two stream functions have been computed from data from the Earth System Model EC-Earth. For the future climate change scenario the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was selected. The effects of the anthropogenic climate change is analysed in this study comparing the difference between the last 10 years of the historical simulation (1996-2005) to the RCP 8.5 simulation (2090-2100). Both circulations are compared on the same diagram by scaling the axes. The salinity axis of the ocean circulation is scaled by the equivalent latent heat energy required to move an air parcel on the moisture axis in the atmospheric circulation. In the future scenario, the atmospheric and oceanic circulation show a weakening and widening a of the stream function. The circulation expands both in the temperature space and in the humidity space for the atmosphere (salinity for the ocean). These results leads us to propose that the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship guides not only the moist branch of the hydrothermal circulation but also the warming branches of the thermohaline circulation both in the present climate and in a future scenario.

  20. Ordering theories: Typologies and conceptual frameworks for sociotechnical change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K; Hess, David J

    2017-10-01

    What theories or concepts are most useful at explaining socio technical change? How can - or cannot - these be integrated? To provide an answer, this study presents the results from 35 semi-structured research interviews with social science experts who also shared more than two hundred articles, reports and books on the topic of the acceptance, adoption, use, or diffusion of technology. This material led to the identification of 96 theories and conceptual approaches spanning 22 identified disciplines. The article begins by explaining its research terms and methods before honing in on a combination of fourteen theories deemed most relevant and useful by the material. These are: Sociotechnical Transitions, Social Practice Theory, Discourse Theory, Domestication Theory, Large Technical Systems, Social Construction of Technology, Sociotechnical Imaginaries, Actor-Network Theory, Social Justice Theory, Sociology of Expectations, Sustainable Development, Values Beliefs Norms Theory, Lifestyle Theory, and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology. It then positions these theories in terms of two distinct typologies. Theories can be placed into five general categories of being centered on agency, structure, meaning, relations or norms. They can also be classified based on their assumptions and goals rooted in functionalism, interpretivism, humanism or conflict. The article lays out tips for research methodology before concluding with insights about technology itself, analytical processes associated with technology, and the framing and communication of results. An interdisciplinary theoretical and conceptual inventory has much to offer students, analysts and scholars wanting to study technological change and society.

  1. Ordering theories: Typologies and conceptual frameworks for sociotechnical change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K; Hess, David J

    2017-01-01

    What theories or concepts are most useful at explaining socio technical change? How can – or cannot – these be integrated? To provide an answer, this study presents the results from 35 semi-structured research interviews with social science experts who also shared more than two hundred articles, reports and books on the topic of the acceptance, adoption, use, or diffusion of technology. This material led to the identification of 96 theories and conceptual approaches spanning 22 identified disciplines. The article begins by explaining its research terms and methods before honing in on a combination of fourteen theories deemed most relevant and useful by the material. These are: Sociotechnical Transitions, Social Practice Theory, Discourse Theory, Domestication Theory, Large Technical Systems, Social Construction of Technology, Sociotechnical Imaginaries, Actor-Network Theory, Social Justice Theory, Sociology of Expectations, Sustainable Development, Values Beliefs Norms Theory, Lifestyle Theory, and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology. It then positions these theories in terms of two distinct typologies. Theories can be placed into five general categories of being centered on agency, structure, meaning, relations or norms. They can also be classified based on their assumptions and goals rooted in functionalism, interpretivism, humanism or conflict. The article lays out tips for research methodology before concluding with insights about technology itself, analytical processes associated with technology, and the framing and communication of results. An interdisciplinary theoretical and conceptual inventory has much to offer students, analysts and scholars wanting to study technological change and society. PMID:28641502

  2. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  3. Stereo under Sequential Optimal Sampling: A Statistical Analysis Framework for Search Space Reduction (Open Access)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-24

    Stereo under Sequential Optimal Sampling: A Statistical Analysis Framework for Search Space Reduction Yilin Wang, Ke Wang, Enrique Dunn, Jan-Michael...100 Patch size 1 10 100 Re du nd an cy 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Patch size 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 Sa m pl in gR at io 0 0.02

  4. Comparing the Climate Agendas of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Oculi, N.

    2016-12-01

    Effective mitigation of and adaptation to climate change requires multilateral coordination of numerous political and scientific activities and priorities. Since its inception in 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has sought a comprehensive international response to the climate threat, culminating most recently in December 2015 at COP 21. The Paris Agreement was lauded as a landmark step toward global climate action as it represented a consensus of 196 countries to limit global warming to 2° C above pre-industrial levels with an additional stated goal to "pursue efforts" to limit the increase to 1.5° C. However, taken in a vacuum, the global Agreement masks important differences among its signatory countries in capabilities and priorities for tackling climate change, and obscures pathways for place-specific scientific research and intervention. Here we present a quantitative content analysis of official UNFCCC documents including COP transcripts, meeting agendas, and mitigation commitments outlined in pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to reveal areas of alignment and divergence among UNFCCC stakeholders. Textual cluster analysis illustrates the relative salience of key climate-related discourses (e.g. vulnerability; loss and damage; decarbonization; technology transfer) in the agendas of negotiating parties, and the degree to which the interests of some parties are over- or under-represented in the final "consensus" agreement. Understanding these disparities, and their potential to promote cooperation and/or disagreement among stakeholders, will be critical to scientists' efforts to develop equitable and sustainable long-term climate solutions.

  5. A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

    2008-01-01

    Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited

  6. A Comparative Study of Spatial Aggregation Methodologies under the BioEarth Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, B.; Rajagopalan, K.; Malek, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing probability of water resource scarcity due to climate change has highlighted the need for adopting an economic focus in modelling water resource uses. Hydro-economic models, developed by integrating economic optimization with biophysical crop models, are driven by the economic value of water, revealing it's most efficient uses and helping policymakers evaluate different water management strategies. One of the challenges in integrating biophysical models with economic models is the difference in the spatial scales in which they operate. Biophysical models that provide crop production functions typically run at smaller scale than economic models, and substantial spatial aggregation is required. However, any aggregation introduces a bias, i.e., a discrepancy between the functional value at the higher spatial scale and the value at the spatial scale of the aggregated units. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of net economic benefits in the Yakima River basin (YRB) to different spatial aggregation methods for crop production functions. The spatial aggregation methodologies that we compare involve agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and aggregation levels that reflect water management regimes (e.g. irrigation districts). Aggregation bias can distort the underlying data and result in extreme solutions. In order to avoid this we use an economic optimization model that incorporates the synthetic and historical crop mixes approach (Onal & Chen, 2012). This restricts the solutions between the weighted averages of historical and simulated feasible planting decisions, with the weights associated with crop mixes being treated as endogenous variables. This study is focused on 5 major irrigation districts of the YRB in the Pacific Northwest US. The biophysical modeling framework we use, BioEarth, includes the coupled hydrology and crop growth model, VIC-Cropsyst and an economic optimization model. Preliminary findings indicate that the standard approach

  7. Strategic Environmental Assessment Framework for Landscape-Based, Temporal Analysis of Wetland Change in Urban Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizo, Anton; Noble, Bram F.; Bell, Scott

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the context of change analysis for urban wetland environments. The proposed framework is focused on two key stages of the SEA process: scoping and environmental baseline assessment. These stages are arguably the most information-intense phases of SEA and have a significant effect on the quality of the SEA results. The study aims to meet the needs for proactive frameworks to assess and protect wetland habitat and services more efficiently, toward the goal of advancing more intelligent urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting geographic information system and remote sensing tools and applications, supports the temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The framework was applied to a rapidly developing urban environment in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, analyzing wetland change and land-use pressures from 1985 to 2011. The SEA spatial scale was rescaled from administrative urban planning units to an ecologically meaningful area. Landscape change assessed was based on a suite of indicators that were subsequently rolled up into a single, multi-dimensional, and easy to understand and communicate index to examine the implications of land-use change for wetland sustainability. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land-use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability.

  8. Strategic Environmental Assessment Framework for Landscape-Based, Temporal Analysis of Wetland Change in Urban Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizo, Anton; Noble, Bram F; Bell, Scott

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the context of change analysis for urban wetland environments. The proposed framework is focused on two key stages of the SEA process: scoping and environmental baseline assessment. These stages are arguably the most information-intense phases of SEA and have a significant effect on the quality of the SEA results. The study aims to meet the needs for proactive frameworks to assess and protect wetland habitat and services more efficiently, toward the goal of advancing more intelligent urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting geographic information system and remote sensing tools and applications, supports the temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The framework was applied to a rapidly developing urban environment in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, analyzing wetland change and land-use pressures from 1985 to 2011. The SEA spatial scale was rescaled from administrative urban planning units to an ecologically meaningful area. Landscape change assessed was based on a suite of indicators that were subsequently rolled up into a single, multi-dimensional, and easy to understand and communicate index to examine the implications of land-use change for wetland sustainability. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land-use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability.

  9. Submission under the United Nations framework convention on climate change and the Kyoto protocol 2012. National inventory report for the German greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2010; Berichterstattung unter der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen und dem Kyoto-Protokoll 2012. Nationaler Inventarbericht zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar 1990-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-06-15

    All Parties listed in ANNEX I of the UNFCCC are required to prepare and submit annual National Inventory Reports (NIRs) containing detailed and complete information on the entire process of preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. The purpose of such reports is to ensure the transparency, consistency and comparability of inventories and support the independent review process. Pursuant to decision 15/CMP.1, as of 2010 all of the countries listed in ANNEX I of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that are also parties to the Kyoto Protocol must submit annual inventories in order to be able to make use of flexible mechanisms pursuant to Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol. Together with the inventory tables, Germany submits a NIR, which refers to the period covered by the inventory tables and describes the methods and data sources on which the pertinent calculations are based. The report and the report tables in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) have been prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC guideline on annual inventories (FCCC/SBSTA/2006/9) and in accordance with the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC-GPG, 2000) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC-GPG LULUCF, 2003). The NIR contains a Part II, along with additional sub-chapters, that fulfill the expanded requirements under the Kyoto Protocol and the relevant obligations at the European level. Part I of the NIR presents, in Chapters 1 to 10, all the information relevant to the annual greenhouse-gas inventory. Chapter 1 provides background information about climate change and about greenhouse-gas inventories, as well as further information relative to the Kyoto Protocol. This section describes the National System pursuant to Article 5.1 of the Kyoto Protocol, which system is designed to aid and assure compliance with all reporting obligations with respect to atmospheric emissions and removals in sinks. In addition, this chapter describes the basic

  10. A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

  11. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  12. 78 FR 10129 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 90 Under Alternative Site Framework, Onondaga...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1879] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 90 Under Alternative Site Framework, Onondaga County, NY Pursuant to its authority... framework (ASF) (15 CFR Sec. 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones...

  13. Flexible investment under uncertainty in smart distribution networks with demand side response: Assessment framework and practical implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schachter, Jonathan A.; Mancarella, Pierluigi; Moriarty, John; Shaw, Rita

    2016-01-01

    need altering. The case study results indicate that DSR can be an economical option to delay or even avoid large irreversible capacity investments, thus reducing overall costs for networks and end customers. However, in order for the value and benefits of DSR to be acknowledged, a change in the regulatory framework (currently based on deterministic analysis) that takes explicit account of uncertainty in planning, as suggested by our work, is required. - Highlights: • A real options framework for distribution network investments under uncertainty. • Smart (flexible) and asset-based investment values are compared transparently in Microsoft Excel. • Both economic and physical (interruption) risks are measured in a multi-criterion analysis. • Case study shows the value of demand response for deferring asset-based investments. • Probabilistic regulatory frameworks are thus needed to give flexible investments their fair value.

  14. Comparison of feature extraction methods within a spatio-temporal land cover change detection framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kleynhans, W

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a change detection accuracy comparison is made between a recently proposed EKF method and a sliding window. Fast Fourier Transform(FFT) alternative within a spatio-temporal change detection framework. Both methods produce a mean...

  15. 77 FR 14493 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 77 Under Alternative Site Framework Memphis...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-12

    ... [Order No. 1817] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 77 Under Alternative Site Framework..., 01/22/2009; 75 FR 71069- 71070, 11/22/2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of...

  16. 78 FR 27364 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-10

    ... Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework Fort Lauderdale, Florida Pursuant to its authority under the...-48-2012, docketed 6/27/2012) for authority to reorganize under the ASF with a service area comprised... Everglades Customs and Border Protection port of entry, to modify Site 1 by removing acreage, to expand Sites...

  17. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  18. Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Debbie

    2015-03-01

    Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

  19. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  20. Toward enhancing the distributed video coder under a multiview video codec framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Jiann-Jone; Tsai, Yao-Hong; Chen, Chin-Hua

    2016-11-01

    The advance of video coding technology enables multiview video (MVV) or three-dimensional television (3-D TV) display for users with or without glasses. For mobile devices or wireless applications, a distributed video coder (DVC) can be utilized to shift the encoder complexity to decoder under the MVV coding framework, denoted as multiview distributed video coding (MDVC). We proposed to exploit both inter- and intraview video correlations to enhance side information (SI) and improve the MDVC performance: (1) based on the multiview motion estimation (MVME) framework, a categorized block matching prediction with fidelity weights (COMPETE) was proposed to yield a high quality SI frame for better DVC reconstructed images. (2) The block transform coefficient properties, i.e., DCs and ACs, were exploited to design the priority rate control for the turbo code, such that the DVC decoding can be carried out with fewest parity bits. In comparison, the proposed COMPETE method demonstrated lower time complexity, while presenting better reconstructed video quality. Simulations show that the proposed COMPETE can reduce the time complexity of MVME to 1.29 to 2.56 times smaller, as compared to previous hybrid MVME methods, while the image peak signal to noise ratios (PSNRs) of a decoded video can be improved 0.2 to 3.5 dB, as compared to H.264/AVC intracoding.

  1. Decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, Shengping; Geng, Shuai

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The evaluation index system is set by the engineering and supply chain perspectives. • The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) to express the performances. • The IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of weights. - Abstract: The selection of appropriate photovoltaic module is of extremely high importance for the solar power station project; however the comprehensive problem of evaluation index system, the information loss problem and the lack-objectivity problem in the selection process will decrease the reasonability of the selection result. The innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the comprehensive evaluation index system of photovoltaic module is established from the engineering management and supply chain management perspectives to solve the comprehensive problem; second, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) are introduced into the photovoltaic modules selection process to express the alternatives’ performances to solve the information loss problem; third, the IVIFS entropy weight method is applied to improve the objectivity of the criteria’s weights. According to the aforementioned solutions, the decision framework of photovoltaic module selection under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment are established and used in a case study to demonstrate its effectiveness. Therefore, from the theoretical modeling and empirical demonstration, the decision framework proposed in this paper can effectively handle such a complicated problem and lead to an outstanding result.

  2. Novel open-framework europium silicates prepared under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Ji, Ying; Bao, Xinjian; Wang, Ying; Li, Benxian; Wang, Xiaofeng; Zhao, Xudong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Feng, Shouhua

    2014-10-07

    Two new europium silicates, Na15Eu3Si12O36 (denoted as 1) and K2EuSi4O10F (denoted as 2), were successfully synthesized under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, and structurally characterized by single-crystal and powder X-ray diffraction (XRD). The single-crystal XRD analysis of 1 reveals that its structure is based on [Si6O18]n(12n-) cyclosilicate anions that are built from six SiO4 tetrahedra sharing two of their four O corners with each other. Such [Si6O18]n(12n-) cyclosilicate anions are linked via EuO6 octahedra to form a three-dimensional (3D) framework containing 6-membered ring channels delimited by the SiO4 tetrahedra and EuO6 octahedra along the [010] direction. The structure of 2 consists of infinite tubular chains of corner-sharing SiO4 tetrahedra, which are further linked together via corner sharing O atoms by infinite chains of EuO4F2 octahedra forming a 3-D framework that contains 8-ring and 6-ring channels along the [010] direction. The photoluminescence properties of 1 and 2 were also investigated.

  3. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

  4. Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change in Small Island States of the Caribbean. In the Caribbean islands, climate change is affecting freshwater availability and other ecosystem services in complex ways. For example, freshwater supply is diminished by droughts and affected by saline intrusion due to sea ...

  5. simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  6. Simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  7. Impact of climate change on sorghum production under different ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    fertilisation and application of 40, 30 kg P ha-1) were the scenarios analysed using climate change (CCD) and historical (HD) weather data to simulate sorghum yield. Comparing grain yield under the two weather conditions, there was a 20% reduction in grain yield as a result of climate change when no fertiliser was ...

  8. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  9. Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption in Cities by Utilizing Green Infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Davidson, Cliff I.; Jindal, Ranjina

    infrastructure frameworks with indicators from green building rating systems (LEED 2009, BCA Green Mark 4.0, CASBEE, and TREES-NC 1.0). The climate change mitigation and adaptation framework addresses benefits from applying different GI technologies as well as limitations in existing rating systems and the green......Climate change has threatened global security of ecosystems, human health and natural resources. These threats have increased demand for various mitigation technology solutions as well as effective strategies for adapting to anticipated impacts. Green infrastructure (GI) technologies such as green...

  10. Validation of the theoretical domains framework for use in behaviour change and implementation research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, James; O'Connor, Denise; Michie, Susan

    2012-04-24

    An integrative theoretical framework, developed for cross-disciplinary implementation and other behaviour change research, has been applied across a wide range of clinical situations. This study tests the validity of this framework. Validity was investigated by behavioural experts sorting 112 unique theoretical constructs using closed and open sort tasks. The extent of replication was tested by Discriminant Content Validation and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis. There was good support for a refinement of the framework comprising 14 domains of theoretical constructs (average silhouette value 0.29): 'Knowledge', 'Skills', 'Social/Professional Role and Identity', 'Beliefs about Capabilities', 'Optimism', 'Beliefs about Consequences', 'Reinforcement', 'Intentions', 'Goals', 'Memory, Attention and Decision Processes', 'Environmental Context and Resources', 'Social Influences', 'Emotions', and 'Behavioural Regulation'. The refined Theoretical Domains Framework has a strengthened empirical base and provides a method for theoretically assessing implementation problems, as well as professional and other health-related behaviours as a basis for intervention development.

  11. Health Impacts of Air Pollution Under a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, P. L.; Knowlton, K.; Rosenthal, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

    2003-12-01

    shows an increase in temperature and humidity as well as mean and extreme ozone concentrations under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. To address public health impacts, a risk assessment framework is used to estimate ozone-related mortality in the region, with a focus on comparing health impact estimates for the 1990s versus the 2050s. This endpoint represents a potentially appreciable public health impact resulting from climate change-induced alterations in regional air quality profiles. Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature describing ozone-mortality relationships are used to estimate numbers of regional deaths in a typical 1990s summer and a typical 2050s summer. Preliminary analysis of future-year ozone-related mortality suggests a subtle increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New York region in the 2050s as compared to the 1990s. A parallel evaluation of heat-related mortality in a typical summer of the 2050s suggests a greater relative increase as compared to the 1990s, with a doubling to tripling of regional summer heat deaths possible by the 2050s.

  12. The mitigation framework in the 2015 climate change agreement: from targets to pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Thomas; Colombier, Michel; Ribera, Teresa; Sha, Fu; Ji, Zou

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an effort between researchers from different countries and with different backgrounds to achieve an agreed text on an important issue in the climate negotiations through a thought experiment of 'think tank level negotiation'. It is a significant achievement for two groups of authors from China and Europe to have come this far. Countries have agreed to negotiate a new climate agreement by 2015. One of the key elements of this negotiation process will be a new mitigation framework and new emissions targets for all. How should the information that Parties put forward be structured, in order to promote participation, equity, transparency and ambition? The new agreement needs to find a way to allow the continuous strengthening of the action of sovereign states, to reflect the 2 deg. C objective. It will also need to provide a flexible and equitable framework for mitigation targets, to reflect both different levels of uncertainty and the large spectrum of countries and gaps in the development of different country groups. There is a need to shift out of the 'target mentality' and towards an understanding of climate change as the challenge of shifting long-term social, technological, investment and infra-structural pathways, as well as behaviours. Uncertainties in such structural processes may be particularly high in developing or emerging countries still undergoing industrialization, demographic shift, and urbanization. Mastering them requires long-term policy horizons, cooperation, technology innovation and policy learning, focusing on the drivers of emissions reductions. The Warsaw decision stated in 2013 that mitigation targets would be nationally-determined. In this context, the discussion around a global goal should no longer be seen as a basis for top-down allocation, but rather as a directional reference against which global progress must be assessed to identify the gap to be filled to foster enhanced action. It is essential to

  13. Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. Quinn

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather damages and disrupts transport infrastructure in a multitude of ways. Heavy rainfall and ensuing landslides or flooding may lead to road or rail closures; extreme heat can damage road surfaces, or cause tracks, signalling or electronic equipment to overheat, or thermal discomfort for passengers. As extreme weather is expected to occur more frequently in the future, transport infrastructure owners and operators must increase their preparedness in order to reduce weather-related service disruption and the associated financial costs. This article presents a two-sided framework for use by any organisation to develop climate-change-ready transport infrastructure, regardless of their current level of knowledge or preparedness for climate change. The framework is composed of an adaptation strategy and an implementation plan, and has the overarching ambition to embed climate change adaptation within organisational procedures so it becomes a normal function of business. It advocates adaptation pathways, i.e., sequential adaptive actions that do not compromise future actions. The circular, iterative structure ensures new knowledge, or socio-economic changes may be incorporated, and that previous adaptations are evaluated. Moreover, the framework aligns with existing asset management procedures (e.g., ISO standards or governmental or organisational approaches to climate change adaptation. By adopting this framework, organisations can self-identify their own level of adaptation readiness and seek to enhance it.

  14. Performance of a Rain Barrel Sharing Network under Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seong Jin Noh

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Rain barrels can be technically shared through social practices or mutual agreement between individual households. This study proposes the evaluation system for a rain barrel sharing network (RBSN considering three performance criteria of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, under plausible climate change scenarios. First, this study shows how the system can be improved in terms of the performance criteria using historical daily rainfall data based on the storage-reliability-yield relationship. This study then examined how the benefits from RBSN are affected by climate change after 100 years. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2 and three global circulation models were used for this purpose. The results showed that the reliability and vulnerability are improved due to sharing and their improvements become larger under climate change conditions. In contrast, the resiliency reduces slightly due to sharing and its reduction is attenuated under climate change conditions. In particular, vulnerability will be reduced significantly under climate change. These results suggest that the sharing of various water resources systems can be an effective climate change adaptation strategy that reduces vulnerability and increases the reliability of the system.

  15. Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    2013-01-01

    coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem......This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all...... and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes....

  16. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phi Hoang, Long; Lauri, Hannu; Kummu, Matti; Koponen, Jorma; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Supit, Iwan; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-07-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.

  17. The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Steyaert

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

  18. A PCA-Based Change Detection Framework for Multidimensional Data Streams

    KAUST Repository

    Qahtan, Abdulhakim Ali Ali

    2015-08-10

    Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams is an important and challenging task. In unsupervised change detection, changes are usually detected by comparing the distribution in a current (test) window with a reference window. It is thus essential to design divergence metrics and density estimators for comparing the data distributions, which are mostly done for univariate data. Detecting changes in multidimensional data streams brings difficulties to the density estimation and comparisons. In this paper, we propose a framework for detecting changes in multidimensional data streams based on principal component analysis, which is used for projecting data into a lower dimensional space, thus facilitating density estimation and change-score calculations. The proposed framework also has advantages over existing approaches by reducing computational costs with an efficient density estimator, promoting the change-score calculation by introducing effective divergence metrics, and by minimizing the efforts required from users on the threshold parameter setting by using the Page-Hinkley test. The evaluation results on synthetic and real data show that our framework outperforms two baseline methods in terms of both detection accuracy and computational costs.

  19. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

  20. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Biber-Freudenberger

    Full Text Available Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

  1. Changing Paradigm for Supporting Aging Individuals' Health and Well-Being: A Framework for Professional Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemeny, Elizabeth; Mabry, J. Beth

    2015-01-01

    This study addresses the transfer of training to quality care practices among leisure services professionals who serve older adults by applying the Social Structure and Personality approach, a social psychology framework that accounts for layers of influence in that process. Multiple demographic and policy changes contribute to a need for a…

  2. The U.S. forest carbon accounting framework: stocks and stock change, 1990-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; John W. Coulston; Grant M. Domke; Brian F. Walters; David N. Wear; James E. Smith; Hans-Erik Andersen; Brian J. Clough; Warren B. Cohen; Douglas M. Griffith; Stephen C. Hagen; Ian S. Hanou; Michael C. Nichols; Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Matthew B. Russell; Jim Westfall; Barry T. (Ty) Wilson

    2015-01-01

    As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States annually prepares an inventory of carbon that has been emitted and sequestered among sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, and forests). For many years, the United States developed an inventory of forest carbon by comparing contemporary forest inventories to inventories that...

  3. Applying psychological frameworks of behaviour change to improve healthcare worker hand hygiene: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srigley, J A; Corace, K; Hargadon, D P; Yu, D; MacDonald, T; Fabrigar, L; Garber, G

    2015-11-01

    Despite the importance of hand hygiene in preventing transmission of healthcare-associated infections, compliance rates are suboptimal. Hand hygiene is a complex behaviour and psychological frameworks are promising tools to influence healthcare worker (HCW) behaviour. (i) To review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behaviour change to improve HCW hand hygiene compliance; (ii) to determine which frameworks have been used to predict HCW hand hygiene compliance. Multiple databases and reference lists of included studies were searched for studies that applied psychological theories to improve and/or predict HCW hand hygiene. All steps in selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed independently by two reviewers. The search yielded 918 citations; seven met eligibility criteria. Four studies evaluated hand hygiene interventions based on psychological frameworks. Interventions were informed by goal setting, control theory, operant learning, positive reinforcement, change theory, the theory of planned behaviour, and the transtheoretical model. Three predictive studies employed the theory of planned behaviour, the transtheoretical model, and the theoretical domains framework. Interventions to improve hand hygiene adherence demonstrated efficacy but studies were at moderate to high risk of bias. For many studies, it was unclear how theories of behaviour change were used to inform the interventions. Predictive studies had mixed results. Behaviour change theory is a promising tool for improving hand hygiene; however, these theories have not been extensively examined. Our review reveals a significant gap in the literature and indicates possible avenues for novel research. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

  5. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Banwell

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  6. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-03-16

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  7. A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review pricing of the variable annuity living and death guarantees offered to retail investors in many countries. Investors purchase these products to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. We present pricing of these products via an optimal stochastic control framework and review the existing numerical methods. We also discuss pricing under the complete/incomplete financial market models, stochastic mortality and optimal/sub-optimal policyholder behavior, and in the presence of taxes. For numerical valuation of these contracts in the case of simple risky asset process, we develop a direct integration method based on the Gauss-Hermite quadratures with a one-dimensional cubic spline for calculation of the expected contract value, and a bi-cubic spline interpolation for applying the jump conditions across the contract cashflow event times. This method is easier to implement and faster when compared to the partial differential equation methods if the transition density (or its moments of the risky asset underlying the contract is known in closed form between the event times. We present accurate numerical results for pricing of a Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefit (GMAB guarantee available on the market that can serve as a numerical benchmark for practitioners and researchers developing pricing of variable annuity guarantees to assess the accuracy of their numerical implementation.

  8. Economic Effects of Legislative Framework Changes in Groundwater Use Rights for Irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Prosperi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In most countries, groundwater resource is a public good, and the entitlement of use rights by the public authority to final users differs according to a country-specific legislative framework. In Italy, groundwater extraction has been regulated through non-tradable private licenses. At present, the public authority needs to reform the current legislative framework, in order to comply with the Water Framework Directive, aimed at the enhancement of the efficiency of the resource use. This research analyzes the effects of reforming the current framework based on non-tradable use rights, by comparing two different liberalization scenarios: an intra-sector market, and a regional market. Although positive economic benefits are generally expected from the liberalization of use rights at aggregated level, we want to analyze whether effects of the legislative framework causes uneven changes on some farm groups. The empirical case study refers to the Fortore river basin (South of Italy, where groundwater covers about 50–80% of current needs, and informal (though illegal water markets across neighbor farmers already exist. From the findings, there is no evidence that the exchange liberalization of groundwater use rights leads to gains in terms of the value added and the farmer’s revenue. In addition, in the case of an auction system regulated by the public authority, farmers whose water productivity is higher may be able to gain, while others may suffer some losses. In this case, resistances from farmers’ associations towards the legislative framework reform may arise.

  9. 77 FR 59891 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 107 Under Alternative Site Framework, Polk County, IA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1858] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 107 Under Alternative Site Framework, Polk County, IA Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of June 18, 1934, as amended (19 U.S.C. 81a-81u), the Foreign-Trade Zones Board (the...

  10. 78 FR 15683 - Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 171 Under Alternative Site Framework; Liberty...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-12

    ... Framework; Liberty County, TX Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign-Trade Zones Act of June 18, 1934... establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, Liberty County Economic Development Corporation, grantee of...) for authority to reorganize and expand under the ASF with a service area of Liberty and Chambers...

  11. 75 FR 33787 - Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 174 Under Alternative Site Framework, Tucson, AZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-15

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1685] Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 174 Under Alternative Site Framework, Tucson, AZ Pursuant to its authority under the... for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, Tucson Regional Economic...

  12. 75 FR 41819 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 17 under Alternative Site Framework, Kansas City, KS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1696] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 17 under Alternative Site Framework, Kansas City, KS Pursuant to its authority under... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Greater Kansas City Foreign-Trade Zone...

  13. 76 FR 65496 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-21

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1790] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 119 Under Alternative Site Framework, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Pursuant to its authority under the... the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Greater Metropolitan Area...

  14. 75 FR 75963 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 138 Under Alternative Site Framework, Columbus, OH, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1726] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 138 Under Alternative Site Framework, Columbus, OH, Area Pursuant to its authority under the... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, Columbus Regional Airport Authority, grantee...

  15. 76 FR 63285 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 225 under Alternative Site Framework, Springfield, MO

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1782] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 225 under Alternative Site Framework, Springfield, MO Pursuant to its authority under..., 11/22/2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas...

  16. 77 FR 32930 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 74 Under Alternative Site Framework Baltimore, MD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-04

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1831] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 74 Under Alternative Site Framework Baltimore, MD Pursuant to its authority under the.../22/10) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the...

  17. 78 FR 59650 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 65 Under Alternative Site Framework, Panama City, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1917] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 65 Under Alternative Site Framework, Panama City, Florida Pursuant to its authority under the...) (15 CFR 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the Panama...

  18. 77 FR 59890 - Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 220 Under Alternative Site Framework; Sioux...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1857] Reorganization and Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 220 Under Alternative Site Framework; Sioux Falls, SD Pursuant to its authority under... (ASF) (15 CFR 400.2(c)) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of zones; Whereas, the...

  19. 75 FR 68605 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 125 Under Alternative Site Framework; South Bend, Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1720] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 125 Under Alternative Site Framework; South Bend, Indiana Pursuant to its authority under the... establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the St. Joseph County Airport Authority...

  20. 76 FR 63284 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 53 Under Alternative Site Framework; Tulsa, OK

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1785] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 53 Under Alternative Site Framework; Tulsa, OK Pursuant to its authority under the.../22/2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the...

  1. 75 FR 72801 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 152 Under Alternative Site Framework Burns Harbor, IN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1723] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 152 Under Alternative Site Framework Burns Harbor, IN Pursuant to its authority under the Foreign... reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Ports of Indiana, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 152...

  2. 78 FR 44523 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 122 Under Alternative Site Framework; Corpus Christi, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-24

    ... Zone 122 Under Alternative Site Framework; Corpus Christi, Texas Pursuant to its authority under the..., the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, grantee of Foreign- Trade Zone 122, submitted an application to... and adjacent to the Corpus Christi Customs and Border Protection port of entry, and FTZ 122's existing...

  3. Understanding Global Change: A New Conceptual Framework To Guide Teaching About Planetary Systems And Both The Causes And Effects Of Changes In Those Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.; Bean, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    Goals of the Next Generation Science Standards include understanding climate change and learning about ways to moderate the causes and mitigate the consequences of planetary-scale anthropogenic activities that interact synergistically to affect ecosystems and societies. The sheer number and scale of both causes and effects of global change can be daunting for teachers, and the lack of a clear conceptual framework for presenting this material usually leads educators (and textbooks) to present these phenomenon as a disjointed "laundry list." But an alternative approach is in the works. The Understanding Global Change web resource, currently under development at the UC Berkeley Museum of Paleontology, will provide educators with a conceptual framework, graphic models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS-aligned, interdisciplinary, global change curricula. The core of this resource is an original informational graphic that presents and relates Earth's global systems, human and non-human factors that produce changes in those systems, and the effects of those changes that scientists can measure.

  4. European Research Framework Programme. Research on Climate Change. Prepared for the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3) and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-15)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This publication gathers the abstracts of European research projects on climate change and related to climate change which have been completed recently or are ongoing under the sixth and seventh framework programmes for research. This document aims at providing a relevant overview of research activities on climate change funded by the European Community to participants to the third World Climate Conference held in Geneva in August 2009 and to the UNFCCC 15th Conference of the Parties meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.

  5. Integration of nurse practitioners using a change management framework: the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Grainne; Plummer, Virginia; Boyd, Leanne

    2017-10-01

    Objective The aim of the present study was to investigate and describe the application of a change management theoretical framework in relation to nurse practitioner (NP) role integration. Methods A survey formed Phase 1 of a broader mixed-methods study to explore perceptions of the change process involved with integrating NPs into Australian health care settings. The stakeholder participants were NPs, nurse managers and nurse policy advisers. Results Key themes were identified adding information about how NPs, nurse managers and nurse policy advisers perceive the integration of NPs into Australian healthcare. The themes correlate to the components of organisational change management necessary to embed NPs into the healthcare workforce. Conclusions Healthcare reform is a complex organisational change. Alignment of several key elements is required for the process to be successful. A change management proposal for reframing organisations provides an apt framework for use in the Australian context of reforming workforce to integrate NPs into healthcare teams. The theoretical framework proposes that multiple lenses be applied to change processes, to integrate NPs into the workforce and highlights the need for exceptional leadership throughout such endeavours. What is known about the topic? NPs provide safe and efficient care to patients, often in settings where access to health care is limited. NPs have been identified as a key strategic workforce reform initiative to address some of the known healthcare gaps. What does this paper add? This paper adds information about how NPs, nurse managers and nurse policy advisers perceive progress of the integration of NPs into healthcare settings. The findings are contextualised within an organisational change framework and highlight the complexity of healthcare reform. What are the implications for practitioners? The findings provide a novel approach for managing workforce reform and identify the components of change management

  6. A fuzzy stochastic framework for managing hydro-environmental and socio-economic interactions under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2014-05-01

    An amplified interconnectedness between a hydro-environmental and socio-economic system brings about profound challenges of water management decision making. In this contribution, we present a fuzzy stochastic approach to solve a set of decision making problems, which involve hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated criteria subjected to uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed methodological framework combines objective and subjective criteria in a decision making procedure for obtaining an acceptable ranking in water resources management alternatives under different type of uncertainty (subjective/objective) and heterogeneous information (quantitative/qualitative) simultaneously. The first step of the proposed approach involves evaluating the performance of alternatives with respect to different types of criteria. The ratings of alternatives with respect to objective and subjective criteria are evaluated by simulation-based optimization and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers, respectively. Subjective and objective uncertainties related to the input information are handled through linking fuzziness and randomness together. Fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty and a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to map stochastic uncertainty. With this framework, the overall performance of each alternative is calculated using an Order Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation operator accounting for decision makers' experience and opinions. Finally, ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management alternatives. This has been done on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an acceptable ranking and mean difference in total performance for the pair of management alternatives. The proposed methodology is tested in a real-world hydrosystem, to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal aquifer system affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater

  7. Learning Physics-based Models in Hydrology under the Framework of Generative Adversarial Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpatne, A.; Kumar, V.

    2017-12-01

    Generative adversarial networks (GANs), that have been highly successful in a number of applications involving large volumes of labeled and unlabeled data such as computer vision, offer huge potential for modeling the dynamics of physical processes that have been traditionally studied using simulations of physics-based models. While conventional physics-based models use labeled samples of input/output variables for model calibration (estimating the right parametric forms of relationships between variables) or data assimilation (identifying the most likely sequence of system states in dynamical systems), there is a greater opportunity to explore the full power of machine learning (ML) methods (e.g, GANs) for studying physical processes currently suffering from large knowledge gaps, e.g. ground-water flow. However, success in this endeavor requires a principled way of combining the strengths of ML methods with physics-based numerical models that are founded on a wealth of scientific knowledge. This is especially important in scientific domains like hydrology where the number of data samples is small (relative to Internet-scale applications such as image recognition where machine learning methods has found great success), and the physical relationships are complex (high-dimensional) and non-stationary. We will present a series of methods for guiding the learning of GANs using physics-based models, e.g., by using the outputs of physics-based models as input data to the generator-learner framework, and by using physics-based models as generators trained using validation data in the adversarial learning framework. These methods are being developed under the broad paradigm of theory-guided data science that we are developing to integrate scientific knowledge with data science methods for accelerating scientific discovery.

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  10. Pursuing realistic hydrologic model under SUPERFLEX framework in a semi-humid catchment in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lingna; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Gao, Hongkai; Chen, Xi

    2016-04-01

    Model realism is pursued perpetually by hydrologists for flood and drought prediction, integrated water resources management and decision support of water security. "Physical-based" distributed hydrologic models are speedily developed but they also encounter unneglectable challenges, for instance, computational time with low efficiency and parameters uncertainty. This study step-wisely tested four conceptual hydrologic models under the framework of SUPERFLEX in a small semi-humid catchment in southern Huai River basin of China. The original lumped FLEXL has hypothesized model structure of four reservoirs to represent canopy interception, unsaturated zone, subsurface flow of fast and slow components and base flow storage. Considering the uneven rainfall in space, the second model (FLEXD) is developed with same parameter set for different rain gauge controlling units. To reveal the effect of topography, terrain descriptor of height above the nearest drainage (HAND) combined with slope is applied to classify the experimental catchment into two landscapes. Then the third one (FLEXTOPO) builds different model blocks in consideration of the dominant hydrologic process corresponding to the topographical condition. The fourth one named FLEXTOPOD integrating the parallel framework of FLEXTOPO in four controlled units is designed to interpret spatial variability of rainfall patterns and topographic features. Through pairwise comparison, our results suggest that: (1) semi-distributed models (FLEXD and FLEXTOPOD) taking precipitation spatial heterogeneity into account has improved model performance with parsimonious parameter set, and (2) hydrologic model architecture with flexibility to reflect perceived dominant hydrologic processes can include the local terrain circumstances for each landscape. Hence, the modeling actions are coincided with the catchment behaviour and close to the "reality". The presented methodology is regarding hydrologic model as a tool to test our

  11. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation......Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...

  12. Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Kupika

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs, address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector. Keywords: mainstreaming, biodiversity, wildlife, climate change policy, east and southern Africa

  13. Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Kupika

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs, address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.Keywords: mainstreaming, biodiversity, wildlife, climate change policy, east and southern Africa

  14. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  15. Changing in tool steels wear resistance under electron irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braginskaya, A.E.; Manin, V.N.; Makedonskij, A.V.; Mel'nikova, N.A.; Pakchanin, L.M.; Petrenko, P.V.

    1983-01-01

    The tool steels and alloys wear resistance under dry friction after electron irradiation has been studied. Electron irradiation of a wide variety of steels is shown to increase wear resistance. In this case phase composition and lattice parameters changes are observed both in matrix and carbides. The conclusion is drawn that an appreciable increase of steel wear resistance under electron irradiation can be explained both by carbide phase volume gain and changes in it's composition and the formation of carbide phase submicroscopic heterogeneities and, possibly, complexes of defects

  16. A scenario-based MCDA framework for wastewater infrastructure planning under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jun; Egger, Christoph; Lienert, Judit

    2016-12-01

    Wastewater infrastructure management is increasingly important because of urbanization, environmental pollutants, aging infrastructures, and climate change. We propose a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare different infrastructure alternatives in terms of their sustainability. These range from the current centralized system to semi- and fully decentralized options. Various sources of uncertainty are considered, including external socio-economic uncertainty captured by future scenarios, uncertainty in predicting outcomes of alternatives, and incomplete preferences of stakeholders. Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) with Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and rank acceptability indices help identify robust alternatives. We propose step-wise local sensitivity analysis, which is useful for practitioners to effectively elicit preferences and identify major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated in a Swiss case study where ten stakeholders are involved throughout. Their preferences are quantitatively elicited by combining an online questionnaire with face-to-face interviews. The trade-off questions reveal a high concern about environmental and an unexpectedly low importance of economic criteria. This results in a surprisingly good ranking of high-tech decentralized wastewater alternatives using urine source separation for most stakeholders in all scenarios. Combining scenario planning and MCDA proves useful, as the performance of wastewater infrastructure systems is indeed sensitive to socio-economic boundary conditions and the other sources of uncertainty. The proposed sensitivity analysis suggests that a simplified elicitation procedure is sufficient in many cases. Elicitation of more information such as detailed marginal value functions should only follow if the sensitivity analysis finds this necessary. Moreover, the uncertainty of rankings can be considerably reduced by better predictions

  17. Communicating Climate Change through ICT-Based Visualization: Towards an Analytical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björn-Ola Linnér

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The difficulties in communicating climate change science to the general public are often highlighted as one of the hurdles for support of enhanced climate action. The advances of interactive visualization using information and communication technology (ICT are claimed to be a game-changer in our ability to communicate complex issues. However, new analytical frameworks are warranted to analyse the role of such technologies. This paper develops a novel framework for analyzing the content, form, context and relevance of ICT-based visualization of climate change, based on insights from literature on climate change communication. Thereafter, we exemplify the analytical framework by applying it to a pilot case of ICT-based climate visualization in a GeoDome. Possibilities to use affordable advanced ICT-based visualization devices in science and policy communication are rapidly expanding. We thus see wider implications and applications of the analytical framework not only for other ICT environments but also other issue areas in sustainability communication.

  18. Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

    2017-12-31

    Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Global Climate Change Response Program, Water Yield in Semiarid Environment Under Projected Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the practical application of a distributed parameter climate vegetation hydrologic model (CVHM) and its ability to simulate hydrologic response under existing conditions and under assumed CO2-induced climate and vegetation change. Applying the model to the Weber River basin provided a basis for determining the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response. By using a "what if" scenario this model included the changes in plant transpiration rates and in vegetation ...

  20. Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in erythrocyte ATPase activity under different pathological conditions. Ali A Kherd, Nawal Helmi, Khadijah Saeed Balamash, Taha A Kumosani, Shareefa A AL-Ghamdi, Qari M, Etimad A Huwait, Soonham S Yaghmoor, Alaama Nabil, Maryam A AL-Ghamdi, Said S Moselhy ...

  1. Changes In Soil Properties Under Alley Cropping System Of Three ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study to evaluate the changes in soil properties, under existing alley cropping system with three leguminous crops (Leucaena leucocephala, Gliricidia sepium, and Cajanus cajan) was conducted in the experimental farm of the Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources Management, Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki ...

  2. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc. Hero

    2011-01-01

    Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...

  3. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic...... and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range...... of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...

  4. interThermalPhaseChangeFoam—A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Nabil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The volume-of-fluid (VOF approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam, which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A. By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

  5. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  6. Minor access control of Hong Kong under the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Ming-yue; Lau, Maggie

    2010-05-01

    Asia's tobacco control movement was strengthened owing to the need to fulfill the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The present study aims to assess the compliance rates of tobacco retailers to the law forbidding the sales of tobacco to minors in Hong Kong before and after the growth of the tobacco control movement brought by the enactment of the newly amended tobacco control law with effect from 2007. The legislation was enacted to fulfill the FCTC. Two waves of territory-wide compliance checks conducted in 2006 and 2008 were compared. The compliance check was conducted using Standard Protocol. The overall compliance rate was still low though it increased from 18.9% in 2006 to 27.0% in 2008. The compliance rate of convenience stores and newspaper stands improved whereas the rate for restaurants, grocery stores and petrol stations worsened. Less tobacco retailing outlets displayed a specified warning sign required in 2008 (33.7%) comparing to 2006 (41.4%). The indoor smoking ban of the FCTC unintentionally changed the cigarette retailing landscape and finally improved the compliance rate. The case study also demonstrated that the Asia region still has much room for improvement in fulfilling the FCTC in term of effective implementation and enforcement. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  8. Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. White Paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-04-01

    This White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU's vulnerability to the impact of climate change. It builds on the wide-ranging consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and further research efforts that identified actions to be taken in the short-term. The framework is designed to evolve as further evidence becomes available. It will complement actions by Member States and support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change, particularly in developing countries. The EU is working with other partner countries in the UNFCCC towards a post-2012 climate agreement which will address adaptation as well as mitigation. The Commission's proposals in this context are set out in the Communication entitled 'Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen'. Developing this framework has been a cross-cutting exercise and this white paper is accompanied by three sectoral papers on agriculture, health and water, coasts and marine issues. Further sectoral papers may be presented in the future

  9. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  10. Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P A; Bhattacharya, A; Butler, C R; Chun, H K; Jacklitsch, B; Jacobs, T; Kiefer, M; Lincoln, J; Pendergrass, S; Shire, J; Watson, J; Wagner, G R

    2016-11-01

    In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.

  11. A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Hall, Edward K.

    2012-01-01

    As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

  12. A framework for assessing risk to coastal ecosystems in Taiwan due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chih Chiu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal ecosystems are rich with biodiversity and ecological functions that provide valuable ecosystem services. They are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems is crucial if we are to develop and implement strategies that minimize and mitigate these impacts. This study uses a theoretical framework that includes climatic hazards, ecosystem vulnerability, and exposure to damaging climatic events, to estimate the risks due to climate change on coastal ecosystems in Taiwan. We found that seagrass beds, algal reefs, and coral reefs in Taiwan are at high ecological risk to the future effects of sea level rise, elevated sea temperature, and ocean acidification. The responses of these highly threatened ecosystems to the effects of climate change is uncertain and depend, in part, on the type of ecosystem, its location in Taiwan, the rate at which these effects occur, and whether these impacts occur at the same time or sequentially. The coastal ecosystem risk to the adverse effects of climate change is high because they are especially vulnerable. The resistance of coastal ecosystems is linked to their complexity and maturity. Their low adaptive capacity is linked to the exploitation of their natural resources and inadequate biodiversity conservation. To minimize and mitigate the effects of climate change on high-risk areas and ecosystems ongoing monitoring programs and dynamic management will be needed. Our study is a first step toward building a framework for climate change risk assessment for the coastal ecosystems in Taiwan.

  13. Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

  14. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

    2014-08-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.

  15. Copper(II) imidazolate frameworks as highly efficient photocatalysts for reduction of CO2 into methanol under visible light irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Jingtian; Luo, Deliang; Yang, Chengju; He, Shiman; Chen, Shangchao; Lin, Jiawei; Zhu, Li; Li, Xin

    2013-01-01

    Three copper(II) imidazolate frameworks were synthesized by a hydrothermal (or precipitation) reaction. The catalysts were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), nitrogen adsorption, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), ultraviolet–visible spectroscopy (UV–vis), Fourier transform infrared spectra (FTIR), thermogravimetry (TG). Meanwhile, the photocatalytic activities of the samples for reduction of CO 2 into methanol and degradation of methylene blue (MB) under visible light irradiation were also investigated. The results show that the as-prepared samples exhibit better photocatalytic activities for the reduction of carbon dioxide into methanol with water and degradation of MB under visible light irradiation. The orthorhombic copper(II) imidazolate frameworks with a band gap of 2.49 eV and green (G) color has the best photocatalytic activity for reduction of CO 2 into methanol, 1712.7 μmol/g over 5 h, which is about three times as large as that of monoclinic copper(II) imidazolate frameworks with a band gap 2.70 eV and blue (J) color. The degradation kinetics of MB over three photocatalysts fitted well to the apparent first-order rate equation and the apparent rate constants for the degradation of MB over G, J and P (with pink color) are 0.0038, 0.0013 and 0.0016 min −1 , respectively. The synergistic effects of smallest band gap and orthorhombic crystal phase structure are the critical factors for the better photocatalytic activities of G. Moreover, three frameworks can also be stable up to 250 °C. The investigation of Cu-based zeolitic imidazolate frameworks maybe provide a design strategy for a new class of photocatalysts applied in degradation of contaminations, reduction of CO 2 , and even water splitting into hydrogen and oxygen under visible light. - Graphical abstract: Carbon dioxide was reduced into methanol with water over copper(II) imidazolate frameworks under visible light irradiation. - Highlights: • Three copper(II) imidazolate

  16. Volume Changes in Filled Rubber Under Uniaxial Cyclic Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina KAZINA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Styrene-butadiene rubber, neat and filled with different silica content was investigated under uniaxial cyclic loading under a constant crosshead speed, with increasing deformation amplitude in subsequent loading cycles. Rubber was investigated in order to evaluate the reversibility of structure rearrangements, occurring in rubber when subjected to cyclic loading. Volume uniformly increases with growing strain and shows hysteresis at unloading. After complete unloading, no residual strain changes are observed. These data are in good conformity with the data of density measurements, which were made on specimens before and after the tests. By correlating data, obtained from volume changes and kinetics of hysteresis losses there were made assumptions on deformation mechanisms at different elongations. Deformational mechanisms, responsible for volume changes in rubber are reversible. Volume changes in specimen occur due to voids formation caused by filler microstructure breakage, rubber chains disentanglement, spaces between rubber macromolecular chains shrinkage, and chain slippage under higher elongations. Voids formation and deformation of rubber macromolecular chain reaches equilibrium state after certain elongation.http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.17.3.592

  17. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

  18. The Ad Hoc process to strengthen the framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramakrishna, K.; Deutz, A.M.; Jacobsen, L.A. [eds.

    1995-11-01

    The Woods Hole Research Center convened an International Conference on The Ad Hoc Process to Strengthen the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Woods Hole, MA, on October 7-9, 1995. The conference was conducted to examine the prospects for successful adoption of a protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change by 1997. In preparation for the Second session of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate, several governmental and nongovernmental representatives met in Woods Hole to discuss the process and possible outcome of the Berlin Mandate negotiations for a protocol or other legal instrument to strengthen the Convention. The conference was by invitation and all participants attended in their personal capacities.

  19. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  20. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  1. Changes in Global Financial Regulatory Framework: Implications for Accountancy Profession in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Azubuike O. Oraka

    2015-01-01

    This study sets out to determine the effects of global changes in the financial regulatory framework on accounting profession in Nigeria and to provide a model that would guarantee high quality and reliable financial reports. Descriptive statistics was applied using modified Barth et al, (2007), residual from regression equation to determine difference between pre and post adoption of IFRS era across Size, Eissue, Liability, Dividend, Disuse, turn, cash flow. Annual accounts data were drawn f...

  2. The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

    2017-12-01

    How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

  3. Social Change: A Framework for Inclusive Leadership Development in Nursing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Catherine Y; Pino Betancourt, Debra M; Morrison, Chenille

    2016-03-01

    The social change model (SCM) promotes equity, social justice, self-knowledge, service, and collaboration. It is a relevant framework for extracurricular leadership development programs that target students who may not self-identify as leaders. Application of the SCM in a leadership development program for prelicensure nursing students from underresourced or underrepresented backgrounds is described. Students' opinions about leadership for social change were explored through a focus group and a pilot test of an instrument designed to assess the values of the SCM. Students lack the experience required to feel comfortable with change, but they come into nursing with a sense of commitment that can be nurtured toward leadership for social change and health equity through best practices derived from the SCM. These include sociocultural conversations, mentoring relationships, community service, and membership in off-campus organizations. Nurse educators can cultivate inclusive leadership for social change using the SCM as a guide. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  4. Changes in calcification of coccoliths under stable atmospheric CO2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berger, C.; Meier, K. J. S.; Kinkel, H.

    2014-01-01

    The response of coccolithophore calcification to ocean acidification has been studied in culture experiments as well as in present and past oceans. The response, however, is different between species and strains, and for the relatively small carbonate chemistry changes observed in natural...... North Atlantic Ocean. The pre-industrial Holocene, with its predominantly stable atmospheric CO2, provides the conditions for such a comprehensive analysis. For an analysis on changes in major components of Holocene coccolithophores under natural conditions, the family Noelaerhabdaceae was selected...

  5. A dynamic systems approach to psychotherapy: A meta-theoretical framework for explaining psychotherapy change processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelo, Omar Carlo Gioacchino; Salvatore, Sergio

    2016-07-01

    Notwithstanding the many methodological advances made in the field of psychotherapy research, at present a metatheoretical, school-independent framework to explain psychotherapy change processes taking into account their dynamic and complex nature is still lacking. Over the last years, several authors have suggested that a dynamic systems (DS) approach might provide such a framework. In the present paper, we review the main characteristics of a DS approach to psychotherapy. After an overview of the general principles of the DS approach, we describe the extent to which psychotherapy can be considered as a self-organizing open complex system, whose developmental change processes are described in terms of a dialectic dynamics between stability and change over time. Empirical evidence in support of this conceptualization is provided and discussed. Finally, we propose a research design strategy for the empirical investigation of psychotherapy from a DS approach, together with a research case example. We conclude that a DS approach may provide a metatheoretical, school-independent framework allowing us to constructively rethink and enhance the way we conceptualize and empirically investigate psychotherapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Roundtable on health and climate change : Strategic plan on health and climate change : a framework for collaborative action, final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-03-01

    Climate change will have a significant impact on human health, arising from direct effects such as increased extreme weather events, and indirect effects resulting from changes in ecological systems on which humans depend. This paper is a compilation of discussions and input from the many stakeholders and representatives that contributed to the Roundtable on Health and Climate Change held in September 2000. The goal of the Roundtable was to raise the profile and inform policy makers of the health issues associated with climate change and to engage the health sector in the National Implementation Strategy on Climate Change. The strategic framework for collaborative action in addressing the health implications of climate change were presented. The strategic plan is based on the following key principles: (1) incorporating both mitigation and adaptation in all aspects of the plan, (2) maximizing co-benefits, associated with climate change and other key health priorities, (3) building on existing capacity within governments and non-governmental organizations, (4) forming multi-disciplinary alliances, (5) emphasizing collaboration and cooperation, and (6) recognizing the shared responsibility for action on climate change. The major recommendation from the Roundtable was to urge governments to place a high priority on the implementation of measures that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, thereby improving health of Canadians. It was recommended that governments should insist that all analyses and modeling of climate change policy options include the assessment and consideration of health implications. 1 tab

  7. Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín; García-León, Manuel; Gracia, Vicente; Devoy, Robert; Stanica, Adrian; Gault, Jeremy

    2016-12-01

    This paper deals with the question of how to manage vulnerable coastal systems so as to make them sustainable under present and future climates. This is interpreted in terms of the coastal functionality, mainly natural services and support for socio-economic activities. From here we discuss how to adapt for long term trends and for short terms episodic events using the DPSIR framework. The analysis is presented for coastal archetypes from Spain, Ireland and Romania, sweeping a range of meteo-oceanographic and socio-economic pressures, resulting in a wide range of fluxes among them those related to sediment. The analysis emphasizes the variables that provide a higher level of robustness. That means mean sea level for physical factors and population density for human factors. For each of the studied cases high and low sustainability practices, based on stakeholders preferences, are considered and discussed. This allows proposing alternatives and carrying out an integrated assessment in the last section of the paper. This assessment permits building a sequence of interventions called adaptation pathway that enhances the natural resilience of the studied coastal systems and therefore increases their sustainability under present and future conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A framework for back-up and restore under the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karonis, N.T.

    1992-12-01

    EPICS is a system that allows one to design and implement a controls system. At its foundation, i.e., the level closest to the devices being controlled, are autonomous computers, each called an Input/Output Controller or IOC. In EPICS, devices controlled by an IOC are represented by software entities called process variables. All devices are monitored/controlled by reading/writing values from/to their associated process variables. Under this schema, distributing processing over a number of IOCs and representing devices with process variables, there are a variety of ways one can view or group the information in the control system. Two of the more common groupings are by IOC (location) and by devices (function). Simply stated, the authors require a system capable of restoring the state of the machine, in their case the Advanced Photon Source, to a known desired state from somewhere in the past. To that end, they propose a framework which describes a system that periodically records and preserves the values of key process variables so that later on, those values can be written to the machine in an attempt to restore it to that same state. One of the more powerful notions that must be preserved in any system that solves this problem is the independence between the specification of what is monitored and the specification of what is written. In other words, grouping process variables for monitoring must be kept independent of the number of different ways to group process variables (e.g., by IOC, by device, etc.) when they are written

  9. An organizational framework and strategic implementation for system-level change to enhance research-based practice: QUERI Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittman Brian S

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The continuing gap between available evidence and current practice in health care reinforces the need for more effective solutions, in particular related to organizational context. Considerable advances have been made within the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VA in systematically implementing evidence into practice. These advances have been achieved through a system-level program focused on collaboration and partnerships among policy makers, clinicians, and researchers. The Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI was created to generate research-driven initiatives that directly enhance health care quality within the VA and, simultaneously, contribute to the field of implementation science. This paradigm-shifting effort provided a natural laboratory for exploring organizational change processes. This article describes the underlying change framework and implementation strategy used to operationalize QUERI. Strategic approach to organizational change QUERI used an evidence-based organizational framework focused on three contextual elements: 1 cultural norms and values, in this case related to the role of health services researchers in evidence-based quality improvement; 2 capacity, in this case among researchers and key partners to engage in implementation research; 3 and supportive infrastructures to reinforce expectations for change and to sustain new behaviors as part of the norm. As part of a QUERI Series in Implementation Science, this article describes the framework's application in an innovative integration of health services research, policy, and clinical care delivery. Conclusion QUERI's experience and success provide a case study in organizational change. It demonstrates that progress requires a strategic, systems-based effort. QUERI's evidence-based initiative involved a deliberate cultural shift, requiring ongoing commitment in multiple forms and at multiple levels. VA's commitment to QUERI came in the

  10. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  11. Adjustment of sand ripples under changing water waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testik, F. Y.; Voropayev, S. I.; Fernando, H. J. S.

    2005-07-01

    The results of an experimental investigation on the adjustment of vortex sand ripples under shoaling waves to changing of wave conditions are presented in this paper. A large wave tank was used to generate shoaling waves. Waves with small (S), moderate (M), and large (L) intensities (as specified by the wave paddle excursion) were used to model three basic cases of cyclic variation of wave forcing, namely, M-L-M, L-M-L, and L-S-L. Depending on the forcing transitions (L-M, M-L, or L-S), three main ripple adjustment processes were identified: (i) ripple splitting, (ii) ripple regrowth, and (iii) ripple flattening. Quantitative data on the time evolution of ripple characteristics were collected using the structured light technique. The results of the observations were explained by extending a simplified physical model proposed earlier for ripples under constant wave forcing to the case of changing wave forcing.

  12. Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel

    2009-07-01

    Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

  13. 77 FR 43048 - Foreign-Trade Zone 32-Miami, FL; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-23

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [B-51-2012] Foreign-Trade Zone 32--Miami, FL... Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (the Board) by the Greater Miami Foreign-Trade Zone, Inc., grantee of FTZ 32, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted by...

  14. 75 FR 61696 - Foreign-Trade Zone 51-Duluth, MN; Application for Reorganization Under Alternative Site Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Docket 58-2010] Foreign-Trade Zone 51--Duluth... FTZ 51, requesting authority to reorganize the zone under the alternative site framework (ASF) adopted... or reorganizing a general-purpose zone, the application would have no impact on FTZ 51's authorized...

  15. 78 FR 29113 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework, Fort Lauderdale, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1898] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 241 Under Alternative Site Framework, Fort Lauderdale, Florida Correction In notice document 2013-11203 appearing on pages 27364-27365 in the issue of Friday, May 10, 2013, make the following correction...

  16. 77 FR 24459 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 226 Under Alternative Site Framework Merced County, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-24

    ... Foreign-Trade Zones Board Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 226 Under Alternative Site Framework Merced...-purpose zones; Whereas, the Board of Supervisors of the County of Merced, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone..., Merced, Stanislaus and Tulare Counties, California as its service area, as described in the application...

  17. 77 FR 54558 - Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 189 Under Alternative Site Framework, Kent, Ottawa, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1846] Reorganization of Foreign-Trade Zone 189 Under Alternative Site Framework, Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon Counties, MI Pursuant to its.../10) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones; Whereas, the Kent...

  18. 76 FR 63285 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 161 under Alternative Site Framework; Sedgwick...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [Order No. 1786] Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 161 under Alternative Site Framework; Sedgwick County, KS Pursuant to its authority...-71070, 11/22/2010) as an option for the establishment or reorganization of general-purpose zones...

  19. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become...

  20. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  1. Change in a ferralsol physico-chemical properties under pineapple ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SARAH

    2015-07-31

    Jul 31, 2015 ... Change in a ferralsol physico-chemical properties under pineapple cropping system in southern of. Benin. 1*Sossa E.L, 1Amadji G.L, 2Aholoukpè N.S.H, 1Hounsou B.M,1 Agbossou K.E, 1Hounhouigan. D. J.. 1 Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, BP 526 FSA/UAC, Cotonou, Benin ...

  2. Biologically Driven Differences in Decomposition Dynamics Under Changing Ecosystems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandy, S.

    2010-12-01

    Predicting the effects of environmental changes on soil organic matter dynamics remains difficult. Here I explore the possibility that differences in decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics are due in part to links between litter decomposition processes, changes in litter chemistry, and variation in decomposer communities. I explored these relationships under three types of ecosystem changes: 1) N enrichment of forest ecosystems; 2) elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in forest ecosystems; and 3) agricultural land-use intensification. My overarching hypothesis was that litter mass loss and litter chemistry would vary under different environmental conditions, and those differences would correlate with ecosystem-specific variations in decomposer community structure and function. In three separate field experiments, I found strong evidence that decomposer communities influenced the chemistry of decomposing litter. In a related laboratory study I found that the presence of the oribatid mite Scheloribates moestus Banks (Acari: Oribatida) can substantially change litter decomposition dynamics and the molecular chemistry of decomposing litter. Most current conceptual models estimate changes in litter chemistry over the course of decomposition from initial litter chemistry and the extent of mass loss. These models suggest consistent and predictable changes in the chemical structure of organic matter during decomposition and do not explicitly consider the potential effects of variations in decomposer community structure on decomposition. In contrast, my results show that differences in decomposer communities lead to changes in litter chemistry during decomposition. Accurately predicting management effects on litter chemistry. and thus also soil organic matter dynamics, through time may require accounting for the degree to which variations in decomposer community composition influence organic matter chemistry.

  3. A Conceptual Framework of Ancillary Benefit Modeling in Context of Climate Change in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joh, Seung Hun; Nam, Yun Mi [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1999-12-01

    A climate change requires a prudent and general policy since its effect is expected to be very extensive on ecosystem, agricultural production, bio diversity, human health, damage on buildings due to the temperature and sea level increase. Korea is facing to establish and implement a greenhouse gas reduction policy for UNFCCC, established to prevent a climate change. In this study, it recommended to establish a concept for measuring a incidental benefit by reducing greenhouse gas and suggested a framework for establishing a model development suitable to Korea. 43 refs., 7 figs., 33 tabs.

  4. Teaching Domestic Violence in the New Millennium: Intersectionality as a Framework for Social Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQueeney, Krista

    2016-10-01

    This article describes an intersectional approach to teaching about domestic violence (DV), which aims to empower students as critical thinkers and agents of change by merging theory, service learning, self-reflection, and activism. Three intersectional strategies and techniques for teaching about DV are discussed: promoting difference-consciousness, complicating gender-only power frameworks, and organizing for change. The author argues that to empower future generations to end violence, educators should put intersectionality into action through their use of scholarship, teaching methods, and pedagogical authority. Finally, the benefits and challenges of intersectional pedagogy for social justice education are considered. © The Author(s) 2016.

  5. The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic Framework for the Department of Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-23

    ramifications of a military conflict in Syria , they are now dealing with the problem of mass refugee migration into Europe and North America...Instability Accelerant ……….………………………………….15 Syria : A Case Study ……………..………………………………………..……………….17 Developing a Climate Change Strategy Framework...fragile states, and refugee migrations.4 The international community has already felt the effects of climate change as relationships between states

  6. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

  7. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  8. Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firn, Jennifer; Maggini, Ramona; Chadès, Iadine; Nicol, Sam; Walters, Belinda; Reeson, Andy; Martin, Tara G; Possingham, Hugh P; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Ponce-Reyes, Rocio; Carwardine, Josie

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily S Hope

    Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

  10. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

    2016-10-01

    Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

  11. Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocks, Brian J.; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. PMID:27513660

  12. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  13. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  14. Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Verdecchia, Marco; Giorgi, Filippo; Colaiuda, Valentina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Lombardi, Annalina

    2014-09-15

    The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Land use for animal production in global change studies: Defining and characterizing a framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Leanne N; Kaplan, Jed O

    2017-11-01

    Land use for animal production influences the earth system in a variety of ways, including local-scale modification to biodiversity, soils, and nutrient cycling; regional changes in albedo and hydrology; and global-scale changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. Pasture is furthermore the single most extensive form of land cover, currently comprising about 22-26% of the earth's ice-free land surface. Despite the importance and variable expressions of animal production, distinctions among different systems are effectively absent from studies of land use and land cover change. This deficiency is improving; however, livestock production system classifications are rarely applied in this context, and the most popular global land cover inventories still present only a single, usually poorly defined category of "pasture" or "rangeland" with no characterization of land use. There is a marked lack of bottom-up, evidence-based methodology, creating a pressing need to incorporate cross-disciplinary evidence of past and present animal production systems into global change studies. Here, we present a framework, modified from existing livestock production systems, that is rooted in sociocultural, socioeconomic, and ecological contexts. The framework defines and characterizes the range of land usage pertaining to animal production, and is suitable for application in land use inventories and scenarios, land cover modeling, and studies on sustainable land use in the past, present, and future. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Arctic Vegetation Change and Feedbacks under Future Climate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Loranty, M. M.; Beck, P.; Phillips, S.; Damoulas, T.; Pearson, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    Arctic surface air temperatures have risen at approximately twice the global rate, produce multiple climate feedbacks, e.g. via expansion of woody shrubs and trees into the tundra biome increasing surface net shortwave radiation due to reductions in albedo. To explore the feedbacks of future Arctic vegetation change on climate, we modeled vegetation type distribution across the circumpolar domain using machine-learning ecological niche models at moderately fine (4.5 x 4.5 km) spatial resolution. Vegetation was resolved into four classes of graminoids, four classes of shrubs, and two classes of tree cover. Comparison of observed and modeled classes under present climate revealed strong predictive performance. When simulating into the 2050s under scenarios of restricted tree dispersal and climate change, we found vegetation in 48-69% of our study area would shift to a different physiognomic class. Under an equilibrium scenario with unrestricted dispersal 57-84% of the area is predicted to shift to a different class. This latter scenario is supported by evidence of rapid shifts to larger growth-forms due to rapid colonization due to long-distance dispersal, expansion from refugia, and favorable conditions for establishment following disturbance like tundra fires and thermal erosion related to permafrost thaw. Distributions of lower-lying vegetation classes with sparse plant cover are predicted to contract in some places as larger shrubs and trees expand their ranges, but this outcome is mostly restricted to regions that do not have more northerly land masses to which vegetation could shift as trees and larger shrubs migrate from the south. We also estimated future changes in albedo, evapotranspiration and above-ground biomass, each of which would change substantially with our predicted widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation. In terms of climate feedbacks, the predicted increases in ET were relatively small, and predicted maximum total increases in biomass (1

  17. Neural changes underlying early stages of L2 vocabulary acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, He; Holcomb, Phillip J; Midgley, Katherine J

    2016-11-01

    Research has shown neural changes following second language (L2) acquisition after weeks or months of instruction. But are such changes detectable even earlier than previously shown? The present study examines the electrophysiological changes underlying the earliest stages of second language vocabulary acquisition by recording event-related potentials (ERPs) within the first week of learning. Adult native English speakers with no previous Spanish experience completed less than four hours of Spanish vocabulary training, with pre- and post-training ERPs recorded to a backward translation task. Results indicate that beginning L2 learners show rapid neural changes following learning, manifested in changes to the N400 - an ERP component sensitive to lexicosemantic processing and degree of L2 proficiency. Specifically, learners in early stages of L2 acquisition show growth in N400 amplitude to L2 words following learning as well as a backward translation N400 priming effect that was absent pre-training. These results were shown within days of minimal L2 training, suggesting that the neural changes captured during adult second language acquisition are more rapid than previously shown. Such findings are consistent with models of early stages of bilingualism in adult learners of L2 ( e.g. Kroll and Stewart's RHM) and reinforce the use of ERP measures to assess L2 learning.

  18. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  19. Heater rod temperature change at boiling transition under flow oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Shigeru; Toba, Akio; Takigawa, Yukio; Ebata, Shigeo; Morooka, Shin-ichi; Shirakawa, Ken-etsu; Utsuno, Hideaki.

    1986-01-01

    The experiments were performed to investigate the boiling transition phenomenon under flow oscillation (OSBT) during thermal hydraulic instability. It was found, from the experimental results, that the thermal hydraulic instability did not immediately lead to the boiling transition (BT) and, even when the BT occurred due to a power increase, the change in the heater rod temperature was periodically up and down with a saw-toothed shape and no excursion occurred. To investigate the temperature change characteristics, an analysis was also performed using the transient thermal hydraulics code. The analytical results showed that the shape of the heater rod temperature change was well simulated by presuming a repeat of alternate BT and rewetting. Based on these results, further analysis has been performed with the lumped parameter model to investigate the temperature profile characteristics as well as the effects of the post-BT heat transfer coefficient and the flow oscillation period on the maximum temperature. (author)

  20. The use of Depletion Methods to assess Mediterranean cephalopod stocks under the current EU Data Collection Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. KELLER

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Fuelled by the raising importance of cephalopod fisheries in Europe, there have been demands from scientists and stakeholders for their assessment and management. However, little has been done to improve the data collection in order to analyse cephalopod populations under the EU Data Collection Framework (DCF. While the DCF allows member states to design flexible national sampling programmes, it establishes the minimum data requirements (MDR each state is obliged to fulfil. In this study, it was investigated whether such MDR currently set by the DCF allow the application of depletion models (DMs to assess European cephalopod stocks. Squid and cuttlefish fisheries from the western Mediterranean were used as a case study. This exercise sheds doubt on the suitability of the MDR to properly assess and manage cephalopod stocks by means of DMs. Owing to the high plasticity of life-history traits in cephalopod populations, biological parameters should be estimated during the actual depletion period of the fished stocks, in contrast with the triennial sampling established by the DCF. In order to accurately track the depletion event, the rapid growth rates of cephalopods implies that their populations should be monitored at shorter time scales (ideally weekly or biweekly instead of quarterly as required by the DCF. These measures would not demand additional resources of the ongoing DCF, but a redistribution of sampling efforts during the depletion period. Such changes in the sampling scheme could be designed and undertaken by the member states or directly integrated as requirements.

  1. Implementing change in primary care practices using electronic medical records: a conceptual framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Gail W

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Implementing change in primary care is difficult, and little practical guidance is available to assist small primary care practices. Methods to structure care and develop new roles are often needed to implement an evidence-based practice that improves care. This study explored the process of change used to implement clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care practices that used a common electronic medical record (EMR. Methods Multiple conceptual frameworks informed the design of this study designed to explain the complex phenomena of implementing change in primary care practice. Qualitative methods were used to examine the processes of change that practice members used to implement the guidelines. Purposive sampling in eight primary care practices within the Practice Partner Research Network-Translating Researching into Practice (PPRNet-TRIP II clinical trial yielded 28 staff members and clinicians who were interviewed regarding how change in practice occurred while implementing clinical guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and strokes. Results A conceptual framework for implementing clinical guidelines into primary care practice was developed through this research. Seven concepts and their relationships were modelled within this framework: leaders setting a vision with clear goals for staff to embrace; involving the team to enable the goals and vision for the practice to be achieved; enhancing communication systems to reinforce goals for patient care; developing the team to enable the staff to contribute toward practice improvement; taking small steps, encouraging practices' tests of small changes in practice; assimilating the electronic medical record to maximize clinical effectiveness, enhancing practices' use of the electronic tool they have invested in for patient care improvement; and providing feedback within a culture of

  2. An organizational framework and strategic implementation for system-level change to enhance research-based practice: QUERI Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stetler, Cheryl B; McQueen, Lynn; Demakis, John; Mittman, Brian S

    2008-05-29

    The continuing gap between available evidence and current practice in health care reinforces the need for more effective solutions, in particular related to organizational context. Considerable advances have been made within the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VA) in systematically implementing evidence into practice. These advances have been achieved through a system-level program focused on collaboration and partnerships among policy makers, clinicians, and researchers. The Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI) was created to generate research-driven initiatives that directly enhance health care quality within the VA and, simultaneously, contribute to the field of implementation science. This paradigm-shifting effort provided a natural laboratory for exploring organizational change processes. This article describes the underlying change framework and implementation strategy used to operationalize QUERI. QUERI used an evidence-based organizational framework focused on three contextual elements: 1) cultural norms and values, in this case related to the role of health services researchers in evidence-based quality improvement; 2) capacity, in this case among researchers and key partners to engage in implementation research; 3) and supportive infrastructures to reinforce expectations for change and to sustain new behaviors as part of the norm. As part of a QUERI Series in Implementation Science, this article describes the framework's application in an innovative integration of health services research, policy, and clinical care delivery. QUERI's experience and success provide a case study in organizational change. It demonstrates that progress requires a strategic, systems-based effort. QUERI's evidence-based initiative involved a deliberate cultural shift, requiring ongoing commitment in multiple forms and at multiple levels. VA's commitment to QUERI came in the form of visionary leadership, targeted allocation of resources, infrastructure refinements

  3. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  4. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...... uncertainty bounds propagated through the evaluation and identify the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. The case study is a small urban catchment located in Skibhus, Odense where no significant city development is anticipated. Two adaptation scenarios, namely pipe enlargement...

  5. Non-conscious processes in changing health-related behaviour: a conceptual analysis and framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollands, Gareth J.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Fletcher, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Much of the global burden of non-communicable disease is caused by unhealthy behaviours that individuals enact even when informed of their health-harming consequences. A key insight is that these behaviours are not predominantly driven by deliberative conscious decisions, but occur directly in response to environmental cues and without necessary representation of their consequences. Consequently, interventions that target non-conscious rather than conscious processes to change health behaviour may have significant potential, but this important premise remains largely untested. This is in part due to the lack of a practicable conceptual framework that can be applied to better describe and assess these interventions. We propose a framework for describing or categorising interventions to change health behaviour by the degree to which their effects may be considered non-conscious. Potential practical issues with applying such a framework are discussed, as are the implications for further research to inform the testing and development of interventions. A pragmatic means of conceptualising interventions targeted at non-conscious processes is a necessary prelude to testing the potency of such interventions. This can ultimately inform the development of interventions with the potential to shape healthier behaviours across populations. PMID:26745243

  6. Applications of the automatic change detection for disaster monitoring by the knowledge-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadono, T.; Hashimoto, S.; Onosato, M.; Hori, M.

    2012-11-01

    Change detection is a fundamental approach in utilization of satellite remote sensing image, especially in multi-temporal analysis that involves for example extracting damaged areas by a natural disaster. Recently, the amount of data obtained by Earth observation satellites has increased significantly owing to the increasing number and types of observing sensors, the enhancement of their spatial resolution, and improvements in their data processing systems. In applications for disaster monitoring, in particular, fast and accurate analysis of broad geographical areas is required to facilitate efficient rescue efforts. It is expected that robust automatic image interpretation is necessary. Several algorithms have been proposed in the field of automatic change detection in past, however they are still lack of robustness for multi purposes, an instrument independency, and accuracy better than a manual interpretation. We are trying to develop a framework for automatic image interpretation using ontology-based knowledge representation. This framework permits the description, accumulation, and use of knowledge drawn from image interpretation. Local relationships among certain concepts defined in the ontology are described as knowledge modules and are collected in the knowledge base. The knowledge representation uses a Bayesian network as a tool to describe various types of knowledge in a uniform manner. Knowledge modules are synthesized and used for target-specified inference. The results applied to two types of disasters by the framework without any modification and tuning are shown in this paper.

  7. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  8. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

  9. An optoelectronic framework enabled by low-dimensional phase-change films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Peiman; Wright, C. David; Bhaskaran, Harish

    2014-07-01

    The development of materials whose refractive index can be optically transformed as desired, such as chalcogenide-based phase-change materials, has revolutionized the media and data storage industries by providing inexpensive, high-speed, portable and reliable platforms able to store vast quantities of data. Phase-change materials switch between two solid states--amorphous and crystalline--in response to a stimulus, such as heat, with an associated change in the physical properties of the material, including optical absorption, electrical conductance and Young's modulus. The initial applications of these materials (particularly the germanium antimony tellurium alloy Ge2Sb2Te5) exploited the reversible change in their optical properties in rewritable optical data storage technologies. More recently, the change in their electrical conductivity has also been extensively studied in the development of non-volatile phase-change memories. Here we show that by combining the optical and electronic property modulation of such materials, display and data visualization applications that go beyond data storage can be created. Using extremely thin phase-change materials and transparent conductors, we demonstrate electrically induced stable colour changes in both reflective and semi-transparent modes. Further, we show how a pixelated approach can be used in displays on both rigid and flexible films. This optoelectronic framework using low-dimensional phase-change materials has many likely applications, such as ultrafast, entirely solid-state displays with nanometre-scale pixels, semi-transparent `smart' glasses, `smart' contact lenses and artificial retina devices.

  10. Enhancing climate literacy through the use of an interdisciplinary global change framework and conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Zoehfeld, K.; Mitchell, K.; Levine, J.; White, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate change and how to mitigate the causes and consequences of anthropogenic activities are essential components of the Next Generations Science Standards. To comprehend climate change today and why current rates and magnitudes of change are of concern, students must understand the various factors that drive Earth system processes and also how they interrelate. The Understanding Global Change web resource in development from the UC Museum of Paleontology will provide science educators with a conceptual framework, graphical models, lessons, and assessment templates for teaching NGSS aligned, interdisciplinary, climate change curricula. To facilitate students learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system of ongoing processes, the Understanding Global Change site will provide explicit conceptual links for the causes of climate change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation), Earth system processes (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and the changes scientists measure in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation). The conceptual links among topics will be presented in a series of storyboards that visually represent relationships and feedbacks among components of the Earth system and will provide teachers with guides for implementing NGSS-aligned climate change instruction that addresses physical science, life sciences, Earth and space science, and engineering performance expectations. These visualization and instructional methods are used by teachers during professional development programs at UC Berkeley and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and are being tested in San Francisco Bay Area classrooms.

  11. An optoelectronic framework enabled by low-dimensional phase-change films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Peiman; Wright, C David; Bhaskaran, Harish

    2014-07-10

    The development of materials whose refractive index can be optically transformed as desired, such as chalcogenide-based phase-change materials, has revolutionized the media and data storage industries by providing inexpensive, high-speed, portable and reliable platforms able to store vast quantities of data. Phase-change materials switch between two solid states--amorphous and crystalline--in response to a stimulus, such as heat, with an associated change in the physical properties of the material, including optical absorption, electrical conductance and Young's modulus. The initial applications of these materials (particularly the germanium antimony tellurium alloy Ge2Sb2Te5) exploited the reversible change in their optical properties in rewritable optical data storage technologies. More recently, the change in their electrical conductivity has also been extensively studied in the development of non-volatile phase-change memories. Here we show that by combining the optical and electronic property modulation of such materials, display and data visualization applications that go beyond data storage can be created. Using extremely thin phase-change materials and transparent conductors, we demonstrate electrically induced stable colour changes in both reflective and semi-transparent modes. Further, we show how a pixelated approach can be used in displays on both rigid and flexible films. This optoelectronic framework using low-dimensional phase-change materials has many likely applications, such as ultrafast, entirely solid-state displays with nanometre-scale pixels, semi-transparent 'smart' glasses, 'smart' contact lenses and artificial retina devices.

  12. Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

  13. Using behavior change frameworks to improve healthcare worker influenza vaccination rates: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corace, Kimberly M; Srigley, Jocelyn A; Hargadon, Daniel P; Yu, Dorothy; MacDonald, Tara K; Fabrigar, Leandre R; Garber, Gary E

    2016-06-14

    Influenza vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) is important for protecting staff and patients, yet vaccine coverage among HCW remains below recommended targets. Psychological theories of behavior change may help guide interventions to improve vaccine uptake. Our objectives were to: (1) review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behavior change to improve HCW influenza vaccination rates, and (2) determine which psychological theories have been used to predict HCW influenza vaccination uptake. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, The Joanna Briggs Institute, SocINDEX, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for studies that applied psychological theories of behavior change to improve and/or predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. The literature search yielded a total of 1810 publications; 10 articles met eligibility criteria. All studies used behavior change theories to predict HCW vaccination behavior; none evaluated interventions based on these theories. The Health Belief Model was the most frequently employed theory to predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. The remaining predictive studies employed the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Risk Perception Attitude, and the Triandis Model of Interpersonal Behavior. The behavior change framework constructs were successful in differentiating between vaccinated and non-vaccinated HCW. Key constructs identified included: attitudes regarding the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination, perceptions of risk and benefit to self and others, self-efficacy, cues to action, and social-professional norms. The behavior change frameworks, along with sociodemographic variables, successfully predicted 85-95% of HCW influenza vaccination uptake. Vaccination is a complex behavior. Our results suggest that psychological theories of behavior change are promising tools to increase HCW influenza vaccination uptake. Future studies are needed to develop and evaluate novel

  14. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  15. Spatial variability in shoreline change along the Atlantic coast of Delaware: Influence of the geologic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honeycutt, Maria Grace

    The oceanographic and sediment-transport processes governing shoreline change are rarely resolvable from the spatially and temporally limited datasets available. Until more comprehensive data become available, the complex interactions of the myriad processes controlling long-term shoreline change are assumed to be reflected in the migration of the high-water line or comparable shoreline feature. Given the limitations of this approach, other data that can provide context for interpreting historical changes or constraining erosion forecasts become critical. The antecedent geologic framework, including the land surface that is being inundated and eroded during transgression, can provide such a context. The geomorphology and spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline change are, to varying degrees, dependent upon antecedent topography and sediment variations across that surface. Comprehensive geophysical field-data collection and analysis were conducted along the Delaware Atlantic Coast to refine the geologic framework and explore the ways in which the framework influences modern geomorphology and the long-term retreat of the beach system. Ground-penetrating radar profiles collected on the uplands northwest of Bethany Beach revealed the internal structure of and the spatial relationships among the early Stage 5 paleoshorelines preserved on the emergent Coastal Plain. As documented in high-resolution, Chirp (2--10 kHz) seismic-reflection profiles collected in the nearshore zone, the Holocene sand sheet is generally only a 1--2 meter-thick veneer overlying Pleistocene units, which are the submerged, eastern portions of the Rehoboth and Bethany headlands. The locations of Pleistocene and Holocene fluvially and tidally incised valleys, some of which flank the headlands, were mapped in the shoreface and across the inner shelf. Spatial and temporal anomalies in historical shoreline-change data were observed coincident with the major sedimentologic and age discontinuities

  16. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  17. Therapeutic Change in Group Therapy For Interpersonal Trauma: A Relational Framework for Research and Clinical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouliara, Zoë; Karatzias, Thanos; Gullone, Angela; Ferguson, Sandra; Cosgrove, Katie; Burke Draucker, Claire

    2017-04-01

    Our understanding of therapeutic change processes in group therapy for complex interpersonal trauma has been limited. The present study aimed at addressing this gap by developing a framework of therapeutic change in this field from a survivor and therapist perspective. This is a qualitative study, which utilized semistructured individual interviews. Transcripts were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) to identify recurrent themes. A final sample of n = 16 patients and n = 5 facilitators completed the interview. Main change processes identified by survivors were as follows: self versus others, trust versus threat, confrontation versus avoidance, and "patching up" versus true healing. Therapeutic processes identified by therapist facilitators included managing group dynamics, unpredictability and uncertainty, and process versus content. The proposed framework explains therapeutic change in group therapy in relational terms, that is, therapeutic dissonance, the dynamic interaction of self and experience as well as building empathic trusting relations. The importance of managing dissonance to aid personally meaningful recovery was highlighted. These findings have implications for the usefulness of relational and person-centered approaches to clinical practice in the area of interpersonal and complex trauma, especially in the early identification, prevention, and management of dropouts.

  18. A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Visconti, Piero; Rondinini, Carlo

    2018-04-01

    As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Climate change and occupational safety and health: establishing a preliminary framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, Paul A; Chun, HeeKyoung

    2009-09-01

    The relationship between global climate change and occupational safety and health has not been extensively characterized. To begin such an effort, it may be useful to develop a framework for identifying how climate change could affect the workplace; workers; and occupational morbidity, mortality, and injury. This article develops such a framework based on a review of the published scientific literature from 1988-2008 that includes climatic effects, their interaction with occupational hazards, and their manifestation in the working population. Seven categories of climate-related hazards are identified: (1) increased ambient temperature, (2) air pollution, (3) ultraviolet exposure, (4) extreme weather, (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats, (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This review indicates that while climate change may result in increasing the prevalence, distribution, and severity of known occupational hazards, there is no evidence of unique or previously unknown hazards. However, such a possibility should not be excluded, since there is potential for interactions of known hazards and new conditions leading to new hazards and risks.

  20. Key Trends in Institutional Changes Under Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpova, Olga; Pevneva, Inna; Dymova, Irina; Kostina, Tatiana; Li, Sergey

    2017-11-01

    The article is devoted to the consideration of the essential problems of accounting institution formation under the sustainable development of the country and the region. The research is based on the key research the field of the intuition economics and considers the trends of institutional changes including incremental, evolutionary and revolutionary. Approaches to the analysis of institutions are presented as well. The first approach states that economic efficiency is guaranteed by newly emerging institutions. The second approach involves certain internal and external incentives for changing institutions. Whereas the third approach insists on considering institutional changes to be the relation of individual economic entities to institutional innovations in terms of the net benefit from their implementation. The conclusion draws the leading role of the state in the process of the emergence and further development of newly created institutions focusing on the fact that not every change leads to greater efficiency. Thus it is crucial to consider the previous background of institutions development at implementing changes in accounting and control.

  1. [Changes of agroecosystem services value under effects of land consolidation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Gao, Jin-Quan; Wei, Chao-Fu

    2010-03-01

    This paper quantitatively described the changes of agroecosystem functions before (2003) and after (2007) the implementation of Gaolong land consolidation project in Hechuan of Chongqing. Engineering design and shadow price were integrated to quantify the effects of the project on the functions, and cost-benefit analysis was used to further explain the economic meanings of the functions, and to analyze the changes of the agroecosystem services value under effects of the project. Compared with that before the land consolidation, the agroecosystem services value after the land consolidation was somewhat improved, with the largest increment of nutrient cycling function and the smallest change of soil conservation function. In the implementation of the project, the changes of the agroecosystem services value induced by farmland water conservancy, field road building, and land-leveling engineering mainly manifested in the change of disturbance function. From the 7th to 35th year after the project, the cost benefit would have a rapid increase, and tended to be stable after then, giving a weak ecological pressure and little services value loss, and benefiting the improvement of regional ecological environment.

  2. Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

    2012-05-01

    Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of

  3. Changes in Large Precipitation Events Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Sahany, S.; Stechmann, S. N.; Bernstein, D. N.

    2014-12-01

    Model-based studies have suggested that changes may occur in hydrologic variables associated with increased probability of high precipitation occurrences, such as the 95th percentile of daily precipitation intensity. It has been common to discuss changes in extreme events in terms of consequences of the shift of the mean of the distribution, or an increase in variance. Here we present a prototype for the behavior of changes in the distribution of precipitation event size, i.e., of the precipitation integrated from onset to termination of an event. It has been noted in observations that event size distributions exhibit a scale-free, approximately power-law range with a cutoff at large event sizes (Peters et al, 2010). A simple stochastic model for an atmospheric column moisture budget shows how this behavior arises and how the cutoff is controlled by the physical parameters of the system. A simple set of conditions implies that the frequency of the very largest events may be expected to exhibit disproportionate sensitivity to changes. Any increase in the variance of the moisture convergence, as is projected to occur in the warmer climate, is predicted to yield changes in the very largest event-size portion of the distribution. Precipitation event size distributions computed from high time-resolution output from the Community Earth System Model appear to fit this prototype well in current climate, consistent with the form of observed event size distributions. In an ensemble of 15 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for anthropogenic forcing increases, the very largest event portion of the distribution shows marked sensitivity, consistent with the simple prototype, with increases over most of the globe and strong regional increases. The theory suggests a set of conditions to evaluate for other climate quantities under which one should expect such sensitivity of probability of the very largest events.

  4. Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2009-01-01

    How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

  5. International migration and dietary change in Mexican women from a social practice framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojorquez, Ietza; Rosales, Cecilia; Angulo, Alexandra; de Zapien, Jill; Denman, Catalina; Madanat, Hala

    2018-02-02

    Migration from lower- and middle-income to high-income countries is associated with dietary change, and especially with the adoption of a modern, less healthy diet. In this article we analyze the dietary changes experienced by Mexican migrants, employing as a theoretical framework the concept of social practice. According to this framework, practices integrate material elements, meanings and competences that provide their conditions of possibility. Practices are shared by members of social groups, and interact with other competing or reinforcing practices. Between 2014 and 2015, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 27 women, international return migrants living in Tijuana, Mexico. The interview guide asked about history of migration and dietary change. We found three main areas of dietary change: from subsistence farming to ready meals, abundance vs. restriction, and adoption of new food items. The first one was associated with changes in food procurement and female work: when moving from rural to urban areas, participants substituted self-produced for purchased food; and as migrant women joined the labor force, consumption of ready meals increased. The second was the result of changes in income: participants of lower socioeconomic position modified the logic of food acquisition from restriction to abundance and back, depending on the available resources. The third change was relatively minor, with occasional consumption of new dishes or food items, and was associated with exposure to different cuisines and with learning how to cook them. Public health efforts to improve the migrants' diets should take into account the constitutive elements of dietary practices, instead of isolating individuals from their social contexts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  7. A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

  8. A technology framework to analyse the Climate Change impact on biodiversity species distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nativi, S.; Khalsa, S. J.; Geller, G. N.; O'Tuama, E.; Thomas, D.; Mazzetti, P.; Santoro, M.

    2009-04-01

    Several biodiversity application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on species distribution. For this purpose, heterogeneous data resources and modeling services are required to interoperate. An information technology and service framework to study the Climate Change impact on biodiversity species distribution is presented. This framework allows the development of relevant biodiversity application scenarios. These draw on data and information exchange from a series of systems interconnected through SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) applying established international standards as well as Community interoperability arrangements. The overall system architecture consists of six main logical components: - Biodiversity Data Provider: a component which is able to provide biodiversity data. - Climatological Data Provider: a component which is able to provide climatological data. - Catalog: a component which is able to perform queries on the available biodiversity and climatological datasets. - Model Provider: a component which is able to run ENM (Ecological Niche Models) on the selected biodiversity and climatological datasets. - Use Scenario Controller: a component which acts as a workflow controller implementing the business process of a typical biodiversity scenario. It is controlled by the user through the GUI. - Graphical User Interface (GUI): The component for user interaction. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for implementing the biodiversity basic scenario. These components play the three typical roles of a SOA where Consumers discover Providers through a Registry. In our framework Data and Model providers are the Service Providers; the GUI-Controller pair acts as a Consumer and the Catalog plays the role of the Registry. Where necessary it also acts as a Broker between Consumer and Providers. This fourth component is necessary for heterogeneous and federated systems. The framework was conceived and

  9. Saving Lives at Birth; development of a retrospective theory of change, impact framework and prioritised metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Marek; Ruysen, Harriet; Blencowe, Hannah; Yee, Kristen; Clune, Karen; DeSilva, Mary; Leffler, Marissa; Hillman, Emily; El-Noush, Haitham; Mulligan, Jo; Murray, Jeffrey C; Silver, Karlee; Lawn, Joy E

    2018-01-29

    Grand Challenges for international health and development initiatives have received substantial funding to tackle unsolved problems; however, evidence of their effectiveness in achieving change is lacking. A theory of change may provide a useful tool to track progress towards desired outcomes. The Saving Lives at Birth partnership aims to address inequities in maternal-newborn survival through the provision of strategic investments for the development, testing and transition-to-scale of ground-breaking prevention and treatment approaches with the potential to leapfrog conventional healthcare approaches in low resource settings. We aimed to develop a theory of change and impact framework with prioritised metrics to map the initiative's contribution towards overall goals, and to measure progress towards improved outcomes around the time of birth. A theory of change and impact framework was developed retrospectively, drawing on expertise across the partnership and stakeholders. This included a document and literature review, and wide consultation, with feedback from stakeholders at all stages. Possible indicators were reviewed from global maternal-newborn health-related partner initiatives, priority indicator lists, and project indicators from current innovators. These indicators were scored across five domains to prioritise those most relevant and feasible for Saving Lives at Birth. These results informed the identification of the prioritised metrics for the initiative. The pathway to scale through Saving Lives at Birth is articulated through a theory of change and impact framework, which also highlight the roles of different actors involved in the programme. A prioritised metrics toolkit, including ten core impact indicators and five additional process indicators, complement the theory of change. The retrospective nature of this development enabled structured reflection of the program mechanics, allowing for inclusion of learning from the first four rounds of the

  10. Assessing cover crop management under actual and climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Ayuso, María; Quemada, Miguel; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Rodriguez, Alfredo; Gabriel, José Luis

    2018-04-15

    The termination date is recognized as a key management factor to enhance cover crops for multiple benefits and to avoid competition with the following cash crop. However, the optimum date depends on annual meteorological conditions, and climate variability induces uncertainty in a decision that needs to be taken every year. One of the most important cover crop benefits is reducing nitrate leaching, a major concern for irrigated agricultural systems and highly affected by the termination date. This study aimed to determine the effects of cover crops and their termination date on the water and N balances of an irrigated Mediterranean agroecosystem under present and future climate conditions. For that purpose, two field experiments were used for inverse calibration and validation of the WAVE model (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil and Vadose Environment), based on continuous soil water content data, soil nitrogen content and crop measurements. The calibrated and validated model was subsequently used in advanced scenario analysis under present and climate change conditions. Under present conditions, a late termination date increased cover crop biomass and subsequently soil water and N depletion. Hence, preemptive competition risk with the main crop was enhanced, but a reduction of nitrate leaching also occurred. The hypothetical planting date of the following cash crop was also an important tool to reduce preemptive competition. Under climate change conditions, the simulations showed that the termination date will be even more important to reduce preemptive competition and nitrate leaching. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

  12. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  13. 4. national communication to the United Nation framework convention on the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    France, as the other involved participants, has to periodically present its actions in favor of the climatic change fight. This fourth national communication follows a plan defined by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nation Framework Convention on the Climatic Change. This report follows the third national convention published on 2001. It presents in nine chapters the actions realized to reduce and stop the greenhouse effect gases emissions and limit the impacts on the environment and public health: an analytical abstract, the conditions specific to the country, the inventory, the policies and measures, the projections and global effects of the policies and measures, the evaluation of the vulnerability and the climatic changes consequences and the adapted measures, the financial resources and the technology transfer, the research programs, the education formation and awareness of the public. (A.L.B.)

  14. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

  15. Gender and climate change-induced migration: proposing a framework for analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chindarkar, Namrata

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes frameworks to analyze the gender dimensions of climate change-induced migration. The experiences, needs and priorities of climate migrants will vary by gender and these differences need to be accounted for if policies are to be inclusive. Among the vulnerable groups, women are likely to be disproportionately affected due to climate change because on average women tend to be poorer, less educated, have a lower health status and have limited direct access to or ownership of natural resources. Both the process (actual movement) and the outcomes (rural–rural or rural–urban migration, out-migration mainly of men) of climate change-induced migration are also likely to be highly gendered. (letter)

  16. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-09-07

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  17. A Strategic Framework for Responding to Coral Bleaching Events in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, J. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Marshall, P. A.; Eakin, C. M.; Goby, G.; Schuttenberg, H.; Spillman, C. M.

    2009-07-01

    The frequency and severity of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase as sea temperatures continue to warm under a global regime of rising ocean temperatures. Bleaching events can be disastrous for coral reef ecosystems and, given the number of other stressors to reefs that result from human activities, there is widespread concern about their future. This article provides a strategic framework from the Great Barrier Reef to prepare for and respond to mass bleaching events. The framework presented has two main inter-related components: an early warning system and assessment and monitoring. Both include the need to proactively and consistently communicate information on environmental conditions and the level of bleaching severity to senior decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Managers, being the most timely and credible source of information on bleaching events, can facilitate the implementation of strategies that can give reefs the best chance to recover from bleaching and to withstand future disturbances. The proposed framework is readily transferable to other coral reef regions, and can easily be adapted by managers to local financial, technical, and human resources.

  18. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  19. Extra-institutional changes under pressure from posting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnholtz, Jens; Andersen, Søren Kaj

    2018-01-01

    of posting), the question is whether these pressures will lead to erosion of employment relations or adaptation at the national level. Taking the case of posting in the Danish construction sector, the article shows that, while formal institutions stay the same through minor adaptation, the increasing use...... of posting has led to changes in the strategies of the social partners, shifts in predominant policy arenas and the appearance of new actors on the regulatory scene. As such, we argue that conflicts regarding posting are driving a process of extra‐institutional change.......The posting of workers has become a key topic in debates about how national labour relations respond to pressures from EU market making. While most prior studies have shown that national employment relations are under pressure from above (via EU regulation) and from below (due to increasing use...

  20. Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oliveira, Guilherme de; Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rangel, Thiago Fernado

    2012-01-01

    to assess changes in climate suitability across individual species ranges, ensemble forecasting was used based on seven bioclimatic envelope models, three atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, and two greenhouse emission gas scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080. We found that most species will gain...... additional threats to the biome’s biodiversity. Here, we ask if the remnants of natural vegetation in Caatinga biome, where endemic terrestrial vertebrate species occur, are likely to retain more climatic suitability under climate change scenarios than other less pristine areas of the biome. In order......The Caatinga is a semiarid biome of the northeast of Brazil with only 1 % of its territory currently conserved. The biome’s biodiversity is highly threatened due to exposure to land conversion for agricultural and cattle ranch. Climate forecasts predict increases in aridity, which could pose...

  1. Transcriptional regulatory networks underlying gene expression changes in Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ament, Seth A; Pearl, Jocelynn R; Cantle, Jeffrey P; Bragg, Robert M; Skene, Peter J; Coffey, Sydney R; Bergey, Dani E; Wheeler, Vanessa C; MacDonald, Marcy E; Baliga, Nitin S; Rosinski, Jim; Hood, Leroy E; Carroll, Jeffrey B; Price, Nathan D

    2018-03-26

    Transcriptional changes occur presymptomatically and throughout Huntington's disease (HD), motivating the study of transcriptional regulatory networks (TRNs) in HD We reconstructed a genome-scale model for the target genes of 718 transcription factors (TFs) in the mouse striatum by integrating a model of genomic binding sites with transcriptome profiling of striatal tissue from HD mouse models. We identified 48 differentially expressed TF-target gene modules associated with age- and CAG repeat length-dependent gene expression changes in Htt CAG knock-in mouse striatum and replicated many of these associations in independent transcriptomic and proteomic datasets. Thirteen of 48 of these predicted TF-target gene modules were also differentially expressed in striatal tissue from human disease. We experimentally validated a specific model prediction that SMAD3 regulates HD-related gene expression changes using chromatin immunoprecipitation and deep sequencing (ChIP-seq) of mouse striatum. We found CAG repeat length-dependent changes in the genomic occupancy of SMAD3 and confirmed our model's prediction that many SMAD3 target genes are downregulated early in HD. © 2018 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.

  2. Plant - microbe interactions under Global Change: the microbial perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    There is ample evidence that both microorganisms and plants will respond to Global Changes, such as enhanced temperatures, increased nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, or biodiversity loss. Plant and microbial activities are linked, amongst other factors, by belowground carbon allocation and aboveground nutrient allocation, which may be altered under Global Changes to different extents. The effect of Global Changes on the interaction of plants and microbes is therefore often difficult to predict. In my talk, I will look at plant-microbe interactions from a microbial perspective. I will ask the question what the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of Global Changes are on microbial activities in soil and what this in turn means for plants and for ecosystem-scale fluxes. I will present results from an in-situ drought experiment, from a long-term soil warming experiment and from a plant diversity experiment, where we investigated microbial growth and turnover, carbon and nutrient use efficiency and gross nutrient transformation rates.

  3. A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Blyth, Alan M.

    2018-02-01

    Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1-3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5-7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

  4. Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

  5. An Empirical Bayes Framework for Assessing Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing since the industrial revolution, leading to the warming of the Earth through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation. Warming of the atmosphere increases its water holding capacity and could intensify the hydrological cycle. Several methods have been developed for evaluating changes in climatic variables. On the other hand, numerous indices have been developed for monitoring changes in climatic variables. Most change detection methods, indices, and trend studies focus on changes in one variable at the time. However, hydrologic variables are dependent, and a change in one variable can alter extreme and non-extreme values of other variables. In this study, a new approach for modeling multivariate extreme values through a conditional distribution framework using the empirical Bayes approach is proposed. This study highlights the value of empirical Bayes conditional extreme value analysis as a tool for simulating and assessing conditional extremes (e.g., changes in the distribution of precipitation conditioned on extreme temperature). The model has been applied to several locations across the world. This presentation will summarize the findings on changes in the hydrological cycle over the United States and Australia.

  6. How can a Theory of Change framework be applied to short-term international volunteering?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loiseau, Bethina; Benedict, Darren; Sibbald, Rebekah; Raman, Salem A; Loh, Lawrence C; Dimaras, Helen

    2016-09-01

    Short-term international volunteering has become enormously popular among individuals from high-income countries who travel to low-income countries to offer support on initiatives often related to health and development. However, their impact on global development is questionable, particularly when volunteer skills are not matched to local needs, or when teams operate outside the local health system. Furthermore, the impact of these volunteer programs is rarely evaluated. Theory of Change is a framework for program design meant to facilitate measurable social change. We propose that a Theory of Change framework, appropriately deployed in the design and conduct of short-term international volunteerism, could help improve volunteer efforts by identifying problems and clearly defining goals, designing and implementing effective strategies, and evaluating the real impacts these have on identified concerns. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. For a better understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change: a research framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, Alexandre

    2010-05-01

    It is generally accepted that there exists a systematic link between a low level of adaptive capacity and a low level of development, which thus implies that the poor inevitably have low adaptive capacities. We argue here that this viewpoint is biased because adaptation to climate change is not solely determined by economic and technological capacities. Many other characteristics of a community can play a major role in its ability to react to and anticipate climate changes (e.g. the territorial identity or the social relationships). From our point of view, this limited view of adaptive capacity is related to a relative immaturity of the science of adaptation, a discipline that analyses the processes and determinants of adaptive capacity. This can be explained by the fact that there are currently few existing frameworks for studying adaptive capacity. This paper consists in a proposal for a research framework which is based upon four main fields of investigation: (i) the influential factors of adaptive capacity and their interactions, (ii) the relevant spatial and temporal scales of adaptive capacity, (iii) the links between adaptive capacity, vulnerability and the level of development and (iv) the theoretical links between adaptation and sustainability. These four fields of research should bring new knowledge on adaptive capacity and feed a more general reflection on the adaptation pathways for dealing with climate change. (author)

  8. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios...... of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined...... effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long...

  9. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the

  10. A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Kruse, Robinson; Sibbertsen, Philipp

    We consider hypothesis testing in a general linear time series regression framework when the possibly fractional order of integration of the error term is unknown. We show that the approach suggested by Vogelsang (1998a) for the case of integer integration does not apply to the case of fractional...

  11. Using biological effects tools to define Good Environmental Status under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyons, B.P.; Thain, J.E.; Hylland, K.; Davis, I.; Vethaak, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    The use of biological effects tools offer enormous potential to meet the challenges outlined by the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) whereby Member States are required to develop a robust set of tools for defining 11 qualitative descriptors of Good Environmental Status

  12. Public participation under the EU water framework directive - processes and possible outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hophmayer Tokich, Sharon

    2005-01-01

    The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), which went into effect in 2000, places public participation (PP) at the center stage of water management as part of its integrated approach to water management. It calls for PP in order to ensure protection and a sustainable use of the European river basins

  13. Programmes of measures under the water framework directive – a comparative case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baaner, Lasse

    2011-01-01

    The water framework directive requires programmes of measures composed by the Member States, in order to achieve its environmental objectives. This article examines three programmes of measures for river basins in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, with a focus on the differences in how the programmes...

  14. Smart transactive energy framework in grid-connected multiple home microgrids under independent and coalition operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marzband, Mousa; Azarinejadian, Fatemeh; Savaghebi, Mehdi

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a smart Transactive energy (TE) framework in which home microgrids (H-MGs) can collaborate with each other in a multiple H-MG system by forming coalitions for gaining competitiveness in the market. Profit allocation due to coalition between H-MGs is an important issue for ensu...

  15. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  16. Small drinking water systems under spatiotemporal water quality variability: a risk-based performance benchmarking framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereskie, Ty; Haider, Husnain; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Sadiq, Rehan

    2017-08-23

    Traditional approaches for benchmarking drinking water systems are binary, based solely on the compliance and/or non-compliance of one or more water quality performance indicators against defined regulatory guidelines/standards. The consequence of water quality failure is dependent on location within a water supply system as well as time of the year (i.e., season) with varying levels of water consumption. Conventional approaches used for water quality comparison purposes fail to incorporate spatiotemporal variability and degrees of compliance and/or non-compliance. This can lead to misleading or inaccurate performance assessment data used in the performance benchmarking process. In this research, a hierarchical risk-based water quality performance benchmarking framework is proposed to evaluate small drinking water systems (SDWSs) through cross-comparison amongst similar systems. The proposed framework (R WQI framework) is designed to quantify consequence associated with seasonal and location-specific water quality issues in a given drinking water supply system to facilitate more efficient decision-making for SDWSs striving for continuous performance improvement. Fuzzy rule-based modelling is used to address imprecision associated with measuring performance based on singular water quality guidelines/standards and the uncertainties present in SDWS operations and monitoring. This proposed R WQI framework has been demonstrated using data collected from 16 SDWSs in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, Canada, and compared to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment WQI, a traditional, guidelines/standard-based approach. The study found that the R WQI framework provides an in-depth state of water quality and benchmarks SDWSs more rationally based on the frequency of occurrence and consequence of failure events.

  17. A Simulation Framework for Exploring Socioecological Dynamics and Sustainability of Settlement Systems Under Stress in Ancient Mesopotamia and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, J. H.; Altaweel, M. R.

    2007-12-01

    The presentation will describe an object-oriented, agent-based simulation framework being used to help answer longstanding questions regarding the development trajectories and sustainability of ancient Mesopotamian settlement systems. This multidisciplinary, multi-model framework supports explicit, fine-scale representations of the dynamics of key natural processes such as crop growth, hydrology, and weather, operating concurrently with social processes such as kinship-driven behaviors, farming and herding practices, social stratification, and economic and political activities carried out by social agents that represent individual persons, households, and larger-scale organizations. The framework has allowed us to explore the inherently coupled dynamics of modeled settlements and landscapes that are undergoing diverse social and environmental stresses, both acute and chronic, across multi-generational time spans. The simulation framework was originally used to address single-settlement scenarios, but has recently been extended to begin to address settlement system sustainability issues at sub-regional to regional scale, by introducing a number of new dynamic mechanisms, such as the activities of nomadic communities, that manifest themselves at these larger spatial scales. The framework is flexible and scalable and has broad applicability. It has, for example, recently been adapted to address agroeconomic sustainability of settlement systems in modern rural Thailand, testing the resilience and vulnerability of settled landscapes in the face of such perturbations as large-scale political interventions, global economic shifts, and climate change.

  18. Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato; Lepe-Lopez, Manuel A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-12-01

    More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

  19. Political economy and price ratio changes: Electric industry under transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reidy, Mary E.

    This study began early in 2000, when the electric market was beginning to evolve from a vertical integrated industry to a market-driven, global industry where the generation portion of the industry was being sold to independent market-based companies. The beginnings of acquisitions, restructuring and re-alignments of the transmission and distribution systems were heightened during this period. In addition, as this study was underway, a tumultuous restructuring in California caused some proponents of deregulation to question the changes. The purpose of this study is to investigate price changes at the state level during the last 10 years (1990-2000). The conceptual framework is built on a study released in 1996. This study predicted lower prices as deregulation in the electric industry occurred and consumers had more choices in suppliers. In order to gain additional insight, the study is comprised of a quantitative analysis of price changes over time as well as a qualitative investigation of a certain geographic area. As a result of the quantitative analysis performed, the study has failed to reject the null hypothesis that deregulated states exhibited no difference in price ratios than those states that remain regulated. This was tested at the level of political influence (states with elected versus appointed) commissions. In fact, whether the population is segmented nationally, regionally, politically or by level of deregulation, price ratios have decreased from 1985-1996. National price ratios have been declining since the mid-1980s. A flattening of the trend for the last four years (1997-2000) may be due to the current retrenching as a result of the California deregulation experience. The qualitative section seeks to understand what influences electric prices have on regional economic development efforts. The interview results have determined that lower electric prices help to contribute to successful economic development activities, but they are not the

  20. Mineralogical composition changes of postagrogenic soils under different plant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churilin, Nikita; Chizhikova, Natalia; Varlamov, Evgheni; Churilina, Alexandra

    2017-04-01

    Plant communities play the leading role in transformation of soil. The need of studying former arable lands increases due to large number of abandoned lands in Russia. It is necessary to study mineralogical composition of soils involved into natural processes to understand the trends of their development after agricultural activities in the past. The aim of the study is to identify changes in mineralogical composition of soils under the influence of different plant communities. Soils were sampled in the south of Arkhangelsk region, Ustyansky district, near Akichkin Pochinok village. Soils are formed on clay moraine of Moscow glaciation. Soil profiles were dug on interfluve. We selected 4 plant communities on different stages of succession: upland meadow with domination of sod grasses (Phleum pratense, Agrostis tenuis), 16-year-old birch forest where dominants are herbaceous plants such as Poa sp., Chamerion angustiflium, Agrostis tenuis, 16-year-old spruce forest with no herbaceous vegetation and 70-year-old bilberry spruce forest with domination of Vaccinium myrtillus and Vaccinium vitis-idaea. To separate soil fractions mineral content. We noticed a clear differentiation of studied soils both in the content of fraction and composition of minerals. Mineralogical composition and major mineral phases correlation of profiles under 70 years and 16 years of spruce forests are different. Mineralogical content in upper part of profile under the young spruce is more differentiated than in old spruce forest: the amount of quartz and kaolinite increases in upper horizon, although in this case the overall pattern of profile formation of clay material during podzolization remains unchanged. There is more substantial desilting under the birch forest, compared with profile under the spruce of same age within top 50 cm. Under the meadow vegetation we've discovered differentiation in mineral composition. Upper horizons contain smectite phase and differ from the underlying

  1. Physiological and molecular changes in barley and wheat under salinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temel, Aslihan; Gozukirmizi, Nermin

    2015-03-01

    In this study, it was aimed to compare salinity-induced changes in barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Bornova-92) and bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Gerek-79). Seeds were germinated under saline conditions (0, 50, 100, 250, and 500 mM NaCl) for 2 days and recovered under non-saline conditions for 2 days. At the end of the salt treatment, germination, water content (WC), total soluble protein content, and catalase (CAT, EC 1.11.1.6) activity were affected in both species, while superoxide dismutase (SOD, EC 1.15.1.1) activity was affected in barley. Salinity affected WC, protein content, and CAT activity in both species, while it affected germination in barley and affected fresh weight and SOD activity in wheat after recovery. Physiological responses of both species were correlated. Expression of α-tubulin, Atls1, and Lls1 genes was down-regulated in barley after 250 mM NaCl treatment. HVA1 gene was highly (more than 50-fold) stimulated by salinity in barley. However, α-tubulin and Atls1 genes were down-regulated, and Lls1 gene was up-regulated in wheat after recovery from 250-mM NaCl treatment. Increase in HVA1 expression was not significant in wheat. The expression profiles of barley and wheat under salinity are different, and barley tended to regulate gene expression faster than wheat.

  2. Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

    2017-12-01

    Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

  3. Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Elsgaard, Lars

    2012-01-01

    The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal...... crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing...... increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model...

  4. Genomic changes under rapid evolution: selection for parasitoid resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalvingh, Kirsten M.; Chang, Peter L.; Nuzhdin, Sergey V.; Wertheim, Bregje

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we characterize changes in the genome during a swift evolutionary adaptation, by combining experimental selection with high-throughput sequencing. We imposed strong experimental selection on an ecologically relevant trait, parasitoid resistance in Drosophila melanogaster against Asobara tabida. Replicated selection lines rapidly evolved towards enhanced immunity. Larval survival after parasitization increased twofold after just five generations of selection. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that the fast and strong selection response in innate immunity produced multiple, highly localized genomic changes. We identified narrow genomic regions carrying a significant signature of selection, which were present across all chromosomes and covered in total less than 5% of the whole D. melanogaster genome. We identified segregating sites with highly significant changes in frequency between control and selection lines that fell within these narrow ‘selected regions’. These segregating sites were associated with 42 genes that constitute possible targets of selection. A region on chromosome 2R was highly enriched in significant segregating sites and may be of major effect on parasitoid defence. The high genetic variability and small linkage blocks in our base population are likely responsible for allowing this complex trait to evolve without causing widespread erosive effects in the genome, even under such a fast and strong selective regime. PMID:24500162

  5. Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannow, Sven; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Albrecht, Juliane; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Förster, Michael; Heiland, Stefan; Janauer, Georg; Morecroft, Mike D; Neubert, Marco; Sarbu, Anca; Sienkiewicz, Jadwiga

    2014-10-01

    The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.

  6. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  7. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, S. Niggol; McCarl, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    Simple Summary World communities are concerned about the impacts of a hotter and drier climate on future agriculture. By examining Australian regional livestock data on sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs, the authors find that livestock production will expand under such conditions. Livestock revenue per farm is expected to increase by more than 47% by 2060 under the UKMO, the GISS, and a high degree of warming CSIRO scenario. The existence of a threshold temperature for these species is not evident. Abstract This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data. PMID:26486620

  8. A Simulation Modeling Framework to Optimize Programs Using Financial Incentives to Motivate Health Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: To generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated "demand curves" capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated: that is, the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele-Lee Moore

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

  10. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-12-01

    Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

  11. Cellulolytic potential under environmental changes in microbial communities from grassland litter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaud eBerlemont

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In many ecosystems, global changes are likely to profoundly affect microorganisms. In Southern California, changes in precipitation and nitrogen deposition may influence the composition and functional potential of microbial communities and their resulting ability to degrade plant material. To test whether environmental changes impact the distribution of functional groups involved in leaf litter degradation, we determined how the genomic diversity of microbial communities in a semi-arid grassland ecosystem changed under reduced precipitation or increased N deposition. We monitored communities seasonally over a period of two years to place environmental change responses into the context of natural variation. Fungal and bacterial communities displayed strong seasonal patterns, Fungi being mostly detected during the dry season whereas Bacteria were common during wet periods. Most putative cellulose degraders were associated with 33 bacterial genera and constituted ~18.2% of the microbial community. Precipitation reduction reduced bacterial abundance and cellulolytic potential whereas nitrogen addition did not affect the cellulolytic potential of the microbial community. Finally, we detected a strong correlation between the frequencies of genera putative cellulose degraders and cellulase genes. Thus, microbial taxonomic composition was predictive of cellulolytic potential. This work provides a framework for how environmental changes affect microorganisms responsible for plant litter deconstruction.

  12. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  13. A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Howard H; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

    2014-06-01

    The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041-2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999-2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: -7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models.

  14. Clinical reasoning process underlying choice of teaching strategies: a framework to improve occupational therapists' transfer skill interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrier, Annie; Levasseur, Mélanie; Bédard, Denis; Desrosiers, Johanne

    2012-10-01

    Clinical reasoning, a critical skill influenced by education and practice context, determines how occupational therapists teach transfer skills. Teaching strategies affect intervention efficacy. Although knowledge about the way teaching strategies are chosen could help improve interventions, few studies have considered this aspect. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the clinical reasoning process of occupational therapists underlying the choice of strategies to teach older adults transfer skills. A grounded theory study was carried out with eleven community occupational therapists recruited in six Health and Social Services Centres in Québec, Canada. Data were collected through observations of teaching situations (n = 31), in-depth semi-structured interviews (n = 12) and memos, and were analysed using constant comparative methods. Memos were also used to raise codes to conceptual categories, leading to an integrative framework. Rigour was assured by following scientific criteria for qualitative studies. The integrative framework includes the clinical reasoning process, consisting of eight stages, and its factors of influence. These factors are internal (experiences and elements of personal context) and external (type of transfer, clients' and their environment's characteristics and practice context). The clinical reasoning process underlying the choice of strategies to teach transfer skills was conceptualised into an integrative framework. Such a framework supports clinicians' reflective practice, highlights the importance of theory and practice of pedagogy in occupational therapists' education, and encourages consideration and better documentation of the possible influence of practice context on teaching interventions. As such, this integrative framework could improve occupational therapists' transfer skill interventions with older adults. © 2012 The Authors Australian Occupational Therapy Journal © 2012 Occupational Therapy Australia.

  15. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change.

  16. Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

    2017-04-01

    The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

  17. Development and Application of a Multisite Rainfall Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, Ashish

    2010-07-01

    The coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) necessitates use of downscaling approaches for transfer of GCM output to finer spatial resolutions for climate change impact assessment studies. This paper presents a stochastic downscaling framework for simulation of multisite daily rainfall occurrences and amounts that strive to maintain persistence attributes that are consistent with the observed record. At site, rainfall occurrences are modeled using a modified Markov model that modifies the transition probabilities of an assumed Markov order 1 rainfall occurrence process using exogenous atmospheric variables and aggregated rainfall attributes designed to provide longer-term persistence. At site rainfall amounts on wet days are modeled using a nonparametric kernel density simulator conditional on previous time step rainfall and selected atmospheric variables. The spatial dependence across the rainfall occurrence and amounts is maintained through spatially correlated random numbers and atmospheric variables that are common across the stations used. The proposed framework is developed using the current climate (years 1960-2002) reanalysis data and rainfall records at a network of 45 rain gauges near Sydney, Australia, while atmospheric variable simulations of the CSIRO Mk3.0 GCM (corresponding to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios) are used for downscaling of rainfall for the current and future (year 2070) climate conditions. Results of the study indicate wetter autumn and summer and drier spring and winter conditions over the region in a warmer climate. The best estimates of annual rainfall project little change in the number of wet days and slight increase (2% in 2070) in the rainfall amount. An increase (about 4%) in daily rainfall intensity (rain per wet day) is estimated in year 2070. Changes in rainfall intensity, wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount in

  18. People, plants and health: a conceptual framework for assessing changes in medicinal plant consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith-Hall Carsten

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A large number of people in both developing and developed countries rely on medicinal plant products to maintain their health or treat illnesses. Available evidence suggests that medicinal plant consumption will remain stable or increase in the short to medium term. Knowledge on what factors determine medicinal plant consumption is, however, scattered across many disciplines, impeding, for example, systematic consideration of plant-based traditional medicine in national health care systems. The aim of the paper is to develop a conceptual framework for understanding medicinal plant consumption dynamics. Consumption is employed in the economic sense: use of medicinal plants by consumers or in the production of other goods. Methods PubMed and Web of Knowledge (formerly Web of Science were searched using a set of medicinal plant key terms (folk/peasant/rural/traditional/ethno/indigenous/CAM/herbal/botanical/phytotherapy; each search terms was combined with terms related to medicinal plant consumption dynamics (medicinal plants/health care/preference/trade/treatment seeking behavior/domestication/sustainability/conservation/urban/migration/climate change/policy/production systems. To eliminate studies not directly focused on medicinal plant consumption, searches were limited by a number of terms (chemistry/clinical/in vitro/antibacterial/dose/molecular/trial/efficacy/antimicrobial/alkaloid/bioactive/inhibit/antibody/purification/antioxidant/DNA/rat/aqueous. A total of 1940 references were identified; manual screening for relevance reduced this to 645 relevant documents. As the conceptual framework emerged inductively, additional targeted literature searches were undertaken on specific factors and link, bringing the final number of references to 737. Results The paper first defines the four main groups of medicinal plant users (1. Hunter-gatherers, 2. Farmers and pastoralists, 3. Urban and peri-urban people, 4. Entrepreneurs and

  19. People, plants and health: a conceptual framework for assessing changes in medicinal plant consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Hall, Carsten; Larsen, Helle Overgaard; Pouliot, Mariève

    2012-11-13

    A large number of people in both developing and developed countries rely on medicinal plant products to maintain their health or treat illnesses. Available evidence suggests that medicinal plant consumption will remain stable or increase in the short to medium term. Knowledge on what factors determine medicinal plant consumption is, however, scattered across many disciplines, impeding, for example, systematic consideration of plant-based traditional medicine in national health care systems. The aim of the paper is to develop a conceptual framework for understanding medicinal plant consumption dynamics. Consumption is employed in the economic sense: use of medicinal plants by consumers or in the production of other goods. PubMed and Web of Knowledge (formerly Web of Science) were searched using a set of medicinal plant key terms (folk/peasant/rural/traditional/ethno/indigenous/CAM/herbal/botanical/phytotherapy); each search terms was combined with terms related to medicinal plant consumption dynamics (medicinal plants/health care/preference/trade/treatment seeking behavior/domestication/sustainability/conservation/urban/migration/climate change/policy/production systems). To eliminate studies not directly focused on medicinal plant consumption, searches were limited by a number of terms (chemistry/clinical/in vitro/antibacterial/dose/molecular/trial/efficacy/antimicrobial/alkaloid/bioactive/inhibit/antibody/purification/antioxidant/DNA/rat/aqueous). A total of 1940 references were identified; manual screening for relevance reduced this to 645 relevant documents. As the conceptual framework emerged inductively, additional targeted literature searches were undertaken on specific factors and link, bringing the final number of references to 737. The paper first defines the four main groups of medicinal plant users (1. Hunter-gatherers, 2. Farmers and pastoralists, 3. Urban and peri-urban people, 4. Entrepreneurs) and the three main types of benefits (consumer, producer

  20. Review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasle, Peter; Jørgensen, Claus

    2003-01-01

    A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation.......A review of occupational safety and health activities in Southern Africa (SADC region) which have been funded under the DANIDA/ILO framework agreement on technical cooperation....

  1. Assessing the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in China by a novel framework for characterizing vegetation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Bingwen; Chen, Gong; Tang, Zhenghong; Lu, Difei; Wang, Zhuangzhuang; Chen, Chongchen

    2017-11-01

    The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) in China has been intensely invested for approximately 40 years. However, the efficacy of the TNSFP has been debatable due to the spatiotemporal complexity of vegetation changes. A novel framework was proposed for characterizing vegetation changes in the TNSFP region through Combining Trend and Temporal Similarity trajectory (COTTS). This framework could automatically and continuously address the fundamental questions on where, what, how and when vegetation changes have occurred. Vegetation trend was measured by a non-parametric method. The temporal similarity trajectory was tracked by the Jeffries-Matusita (JM) distance of the inter-annual vegetation indices temporal profiles and modeled using the logistic function. The COTTS approach was applied to examine the afforestation efforts of the TNSFP using 500 m 8-day composites MODIS datasets from 2001 to 2015. Accuracy assessment from the 1109 reference sites reveals that the COTTS is capable of automatically determining vegetation dynamic patterns, with an overall accuracy of 90.08% and a kappa coefficient of 0.8688. The efficacy of the TNSFP was evaluated through comprehensive considerations of vegetation, soil and wetness. Around 45.78% areas obtained increasing vegetation trend, 2.96% areas achieved bare soil decline and 4.50% areas exhibited increasing surface wetness. There were 4.49% areas under vegetation degradation & desertification. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of efficacy of the TNSFP was revealed: great vegetation gain through the abrupt dynamic pattern in the semi-humid and humid regions, bare soil decline & potential efficacy in the semi-arid region and remarkable efficacy in functional region of Eastern Ordos.

  2. A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, Roshanak

    2017-01-01

    Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months. PMID:29155862

  3. Creating Innovative Frameworks to Spur Cultural Change at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Aamod; Lozano, Joel; Carte, Olivia; Robillos, Troy

    2018-01-01

    furniture, and new capabilities that would bring people in. Decisions and desires underwent a rapid reiterative process in order to stay within budget and short deadlines, while holding firm to what was seen as fundamental elements of an innovation space. The framework for cultural change being established, the more difficult task began: incubating the desired culture. Intentional workday use of the innovation space was encouraged, and organized events coordinated in order to truly foster culture change. Such incubation supports the organic spread of culture change to all areas of AFRC. This framework was complemented and expanded by the implementation of the bike share program. Steps for implementation included bike selection based on lessons learned, creating bike stations and signage, implementing bike share rules, and building a volunteer maintenance infrastructure. A novel user-reporting feedback system at each bike station is a low-impact method of capturing usage metrics. Due to the nature of the work conducted at AFRC, the bike share program and feedback system were negotiated and vetted through various organizations including legal, safety, and operations. The innovation space and the bike share program together are an effective initial framework for innovation and collaboration. Culture change takes time, but the innovation space and the bike share program are already showing signs of making a positive impact on the AFRC workforce.

  4. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce McCarl

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.

  5. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, S Niggol; McCarl, Bruce

    2011-10-19

    This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.

  6. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

    2014-01-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

  7. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

  8. Anomalous microstructural changes in III-nitrides under ion bombardment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucheyev, S.O.; Williams, J.S.; Jagadish, C.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Group-III nitrides (GaN, AlGaN, and InGaN) are currently a 'hot topic' in the physics and material research community due to very important technological applications of these materials in (opto)electronics. In the fabrication of III-nitride-based devices, ion bombardment represents a very attractive processing tool. However, ion-beam-produced lattice disorder and its undesirable consequences limit technological applications of ion implantation. Hence, studies of ion-beam-damage processes in Ill-nitrides are not only physically interesting but also technologically important. In this study, wurtzite GaN, AlGaN, and InGaN films exposed to ion bombardment under a wide range of irradiation conditions are studied by a combination of transmission electron microscopy (TEM), environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), cathodoluminescence (CL), and Rutherford backscattering/channeling (RBS/C) spectrometry. Results show that, unlike the situation for mature semiconductors such as Si and GaAs, Ill-nitrides exhibit a range of intriguing behavior involving extreme microstructural changes under ion bombardment. In this presentation, the following aspects are discussed: (i) formation of lattice defects during ion bombardment, (ii) ion-beam-induced phase transformations, (iii) ion-beam-produced stoichiometric imbalance and associated material decomposition, and (iv) an application of charging phenomena during ESEM imaging for studies of electrical isolation in GaN by MeV light ion irradiation. Emphasis is given to the (powerful) application of electron microscopy techniques for the understanding of physical processes occurring in Ill-nitrides under ion bombardment. Copyright (2002) Australian Society for Electron Microscopy Inc

  9. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2017-09-01

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  10. Dispersal governs the reorganization of ecological networks under environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Patrick L; Gonzalez, Andrew

    2017-05-08

    Ecological networks, such as food webs, mutualist webs and host-parasite webs, are reorganizing as species abundances and spatial distributions shift in response to environmental change. Current theoretical expectations for how this reorganization will occur are available for competition or for parts of interaction networks, but these may not extend to more complex networks. Here we use metacommunity theory to develop new expectations for how complex networks will reorganize under environmental change, and show that dispersal is crucial for determining the degree to which networks will retain their composition and structure. When dispersal between habitat patches is low, all types of species interactions act as a strong determinant for whether species can colonize suitable habitats. This colonization resistance drives species turnover, which breaks apart current networks and leads to the formation of new networks. However, when dispersal rates are increased, colonists arrive in high abundance in habitats where they are well adapted, so interactions with resident species contribute less to colonization success. Dispersal ensures that species associations are maintained as they shift in space, so networks retain similar composition and structure. The crucial role of dispersal reinforces the need to manage habitat connectivity to sustain species and interaction diversity into the future.

  11. Improving the transferability of hydrological model parameters under changing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Bárdossy, András

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are widely utilized to describe catchment behaviors with observed hydro-meteorological data. Hydrological process may be considered as non-stationary under the changing climate and land use conditions. An applicable hydrological model should be able to capture the essential features of the target catchment and therefore be transferable to different conditions. At present, many model applications based on the stationary assumptions are not sufficient for predicting further changes or time variability. The aim of this study is to explore new model calibration methods in order to improve the transferability of model parameters. To cope with the instability of model parameters calibrated on catchments in non-stationary conditions, we investigate the idea of simultaneously calibration on streamflow records for the period with dissimilar climate characteristics. In additional, a weather based weighting function is implemented to adjust the calibration period to future trends. For regions with limited data and ungauged basins, the common calibration was applied by using information from similar catchments. Result shows the model performance and transfer quantity could be well improved via common calibration. This model calibration approach will be used to enhance regional water management and flood forecasting capabilities.

  12. Collapse of Insect Gut Symbiosis under Simulated Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Yoshitomo; Tada, Akiyo; Musolin, Dmitry L; Hari, Nobuhiro; Hosokawa, Takahiro; Fujisaki, Kenji; Fukatsu, Takema

    2016-10-04

    Global warming impacts diverse organisms not only directly but also indirectly via other organisms with which they interact. Recently, the possibility that elevated temperatures resulting from global warming may substantially affect biodiversity through disrupting mutualistic/parasitic associations has been highlighted. Here we report an experimental demonstration that global warming can affect a pest insect via suppression of its obligate bacterial symbiont. The southern green stinkbug Nezara viridula depends on a specific gut bacterium for its normal growth and survival. When the insects were reared inside or outside a simulated warming incubator wherein temperature was controlled at 2.5°C higher than outside, the insects reared in the incubator exhibited severe fitness defects (i.e., retarded growth, reduced size, yellowish body color, etc.) and significant reduction of symbiont population, particularly in the midsummer season, whereas the insects reared outside did not. Rearing at 30°C or 32.5°C resulted in similar defective phenotypes of the insects, whereas no adult insects emerged at 35°C. Notably, experimental symbiont suppression by an antibiotic treatment also induced similar defective phenotypes of the insects, indicating that the host's defective phenotypes are attributable not to the heat stress itself but to the suppression of the symbiont population induced by elevated temperature. These results strongly suggest that high temperature in the midsummer season negatively affects the insects not directly but indirectly via the heat-vulnerable obligate bacterial symbiont, which highlights the practical relevance of mutualism collapse in this warming world. Climate change is among the biggest environmental issues in the contemporary world, and its impact on the biodiversity and ecosystem is not only of scientific interest but also of practical concern for the general public. On the basis of our laboratory data obtained under strictly controlled

  13. The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Continuing Medical Education Needs Assessment Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valois, Pierre; Blouin, Patrick; Ouellet, Claudine; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien; Bélanger, Diane; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    As the health consequences of climate change (CC) will likely become more manifest in the future, family physicians have to be knowledgeable about these impacts and the ways in which they can affect their patients. The main aim of this study was to propose a competency framework and questionnaire used to conduct a needs analysis to identify and prioritize family physicians' real educational needs regarding the health impacts of CC. A mixed method combining a qualitative interview and a quantitative online questionnaire was used (n = 24 physicians). The interview assessed key beliefs related to participating in an online continuing medical education (eCME) activity on the health impacts of climate change, and the perception of the key factors or conditions required to ensure the family physicians' satisfaction with this eCME activity. The questionnaire assessed the current and desired levels of competency on five general training themes: general knowledge about CC; heat-related illnesses; CC, extreme weather events and modification of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases; CC, extreme weather events and modification of water-borne diseases; and mental health impacts of natural disasters. Results revealed the need for improved medical education on climate change and health. Results also add to the literature by showing that a 3-hour eCME activity covering these topics would be useful and would allow family physicians to use this knowledge in their daily practice, notably through prevention and counseling. Introducing a CME needs assessment framework and a generic instrument that reflects family physicians' needs regarding the health impacts of CC has the added advantage of standardizing the assessment procedure.

  14. A theoretical Gaussian framework for anomalous change detection in hyperspectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acito, Nicola; Diani, Marco; Corsini, Giovanni

    2017-10-01

    Exploitation of temporal series of hyperspectral images is a relatively new discipline that has a wide variety of possible applications in fields like remote sensing, area surveillance, defense and security, search and rescue and so on. In this work, we discuss how images taken at two different times can be processed to detect changes caused by insertion, deletion or displacement of small objects in the monitored scene. This problem is known in the literature as anomalous change detection (ACD) and it can be viewed as the extension, to the multitemporal case, of the well-known anomaly detection problem in a single image. In fact, in both cases, the hyperspectral images are processed blindly in an unsupervised manner and without a-priori knowledge about the target spectrum. We introduce the ACD problem using an approach based on the statistical decision theory and we derive a common framework including different ACD approaches. Particularly, we clearly define the observation space, the data statistical distribution conditioned to the two competing hypotheses and the procedure followed to come with the solution. The proposed overview places emphasis on techniques based on the multivariate Gaussian model that allows a formal presentation of the ACD problem and the rigorous derivation of the possible solutions in a way that is both mathematically more tractable and easier to interpret. We also discuss practical problems related to the application of the detectors in the real world and present affordable solutions. Namely, we describe the ACD processing chain including the strategies that are commonly adopted to compensate pervasive radiometric changes, caused by the different illumination/atmospheric conditions, and to mitigate the residual geometric image co-registration errors. Results obtained on real freely available data are discussed in order to test and compare the methods within the proposed general framework.

  15. Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model based framework for SHM in structures with time-dependent dynamics under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avendaño-Valencia, Luis David; Fassois, Spilios D.

    2017-12-01

    The problem of vibration-based damage diagnosis in structures characterized by time-dependent dynamics under significant environmental and/or operational uncertainty is considered. A stochastic framework consisting of a Gaussian Mixture Random Coefficient model of the uncertain time-dependent dynamics under each structural health state, proper estimation methods, and Bayesian or minimum distance type decision making, is postulated. The Random Coefficient (RC) time-dependent stochastic model with coefficients following a multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) allows for significant flexibility in uncertainty representation. Certain of the model parameters are estimated via a simple procedure which is founded on the related Multiple Model (MM) concept, while the GMM weights are explicitly estimated for optimizing damage diagnostic performance. The postulated framework is demonstrated via damage detection in a simple simulated model of a quarter-car active suspension with time-dependent dynamics and considerable uncertainty on the payload. Comparisons with a simpler Gaussian RC model based method are also presented, with the postulated framework shown to be capable of offering considerable improvement in diagnostic performance.

  16. Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water

  17. Towards a Unified Framework in Hydroclimate Extremes Prediction in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.; Zarekarizi, M.; Bracken, C.

    2016-12-01

    Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of hydroclimate extremes are of paramount importance in disaster mitigation and emergency management. The IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters emphasizes that the global warming would change the frequency, severity, and spatial pattern of extremes. In addition to climate change, land use and land cover changes also influence the extreme characteristics at regional scale. Therefore, natural variability and anthropogenic changes to the hydroclimate system result in nonstationarity in hydroclimate variables. In this presentation recent advancements in developing and using Bayesian approaches to account for non-stationarity in hydroclimate extremes are discussed. Also, implications of these approaches in flood frequency analysis, treatment of spatial dependence, the impact of large-scale climate variability, the selection of cause-effect covariates, with quantification of model errors in extreme prediction is explained. Within this framework, the applicability and usefulness of the ensemble data assimilation for extreme flood predictions is also introduced. Finally, a practical and easy to use approach for better communication with decision-makers and emergency managers is presented.

  18. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  19. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  20. Functional Ecological Gene Networks to Reveal the Changes Among Microbial Interactions Under Elevated Carbon Dioxide Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Ye; Zhou, Jizhong; Luo, Feng; He, Zhili; Tu, Qichao; Zhi, Xiaoyang

    2010-05-17

    Biodiversity and its responses to environmental changes is a central issue in ecology, and for society. Almost all microbial biodiversity researches focus on species richness and abundance but ignore the interactions among different microbial species/populations. However, determining the interactions and their relationships to environmental changes in microbial communities is a grand challenge, primarily due to the lack of information on the network structure among different microbial species/populations. Here, a novel random matrix theory (RMT)-based conceptual framework for identifying functional ecological gene networks (fEGNs) is developed with the high throughput functional gene array hybridization data from the grassland microbial communities in a long-term FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) experiment. Both fEGNs under elevated CO2 (eCO2) and ambient CO2 (aCO2) possessed general characteristics of many complex systems such as scale-free, small-world, modular and hierarchical. However, the topological structure of the fEGNs is distinctly different between eCO2 and aCO2, suggesting that eCO2 dramatically altered the interactions among different microbial functional groups/populations. In addition, the changes in network structure were significantly correlated with soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and plant productivity, indicating the potential importance of network interactions in ecosystem functioning. Elucidating network interactions in microbial communities and their responses to environmental changes are fundamentally important for research in microbial ecology, systems microbiology, and global change.

  1. Multiscale mapping of species diversity under changed land use using imaging spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Kagan, Tarin; Caras, Tamir; Herrmann, Ittai; Shachak, Moshe; Karnieli, Arnon

    2017-07-01

    Land use changes are one of the most important factors causing environmental transformations and species diversity alterations. The aim of the current study was to develop a geoinformatics-based framework to quantify alpha and beta diversity indices in two sites in Israel with different land uses, i.e., an agricultural system of fruit orchards, an afforestation system of planted groves, and an unmanaged system of groves. The framework comprises four scaling steps: (1) classification of a tree species distribution (SD) map using imaging spectroscopy (IS) at a pixel size of 1 m; (2) estimation of local species richness by calculating the alpha diversity index for 30-m grid cells; (3) calculation of beta diversity for different land use categories and sub-categories at different sizes; and (4) calculation of the beta diversity difference between the two sites. The SD was classified based on a hyperspectral image with 448 bands within the 380-2500 nm spectral range and a spatial resolution of 1 m. Twenty-three tree species were classified with high overall accuracy values of 82.57% and 86.93% for the two sites. Significantly high values of the alpha index characterize the unmanaged land use, and the lowest values were calculated for the agricultural land use. In addition, high values of alpha indices were found at the borders between the polygons related to the "edge-effect" phenomenon, whereas low alpha indices were found in areas with high invasion species rates. The beta index value, calculated for 58 polygons, was significantly lower in the agricultural land use. The suggested framework of this study succeeded in quantifying land use effects on tree species distribution, evenness, and richness. IS and spatial statistics techniques offer an opportunity to study woody plant species variation with a multiscale approach that is useful for managing land use, especially under increasing environmental changes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. Robustness-based evaluation of long-term river basin planning under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, M. U.; Ray, P. A.; Brown, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    This work develops a bottom-up, multi-stage planning framework for the sustainable development of river basin systems under deep climate uncertainty. The research focuses on whether and when it is desirable to invest for costly water infrastructure projects, and how to select among a set of project alternatives in order achieve the desired economic benefits with a relatively low level of risk. The proposed framework begins with identifying a set of climate conditions to represent the future vulnerability domain of the system using simulation analysis. The conditions identified in the simulation analysis are then used to develop a scenario-tree, to represent the manner in which the uncertainties may evolve over the course of the planning period. Next, optimal decisions are repeatedly explored through a multi-stage optimization model, by varying the probability weights employed in the scenario-tree. The resulting vector of optimal decisions are post-processed to identify robust choices that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities. The proposed planning framework is illustrated for the Niger Basin, over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060. The Niger Basin is a transboundary system facing a series of challenges including endemic poverty, inadequate infrastructure and weak adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. The case study assesses long-term economic benefits from four new dam projects, and from a range of expansions across the eleven irrigation zones. The climate scenarios are obtained by first generating new climate variability realizations from a stochastic weather generator, and then placing climate change factors on the generated climate realizations. Basin runoff response to climate scenarios are simulated by a series of monthly, two-compartment water balance models. Long-term economic benefits are estimated from the sectors of irrigated agriculture, hydropower, navigation, fishing, and environmental protection, using a mixed

  3. A framework for modelling the behaviour of a process control operator under stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kan, C-C.F.; Roberts, P.D.; Smith, I.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper proposes the basis for a framework for modelling effects of stress on the behaviour of a process control plant operator. The qualitative effects of stress on the cognitive processing ability of the operator are discussed. Stress is thought to mainly decrease the reasoning ability of the operator. The operator will experience increased rigidity in problem solving and the narrowing of his attention and perceptual field. At the same time, the operator will be increasingly reluctant in admitting that wrong decisions have been committed. Furthermore, he will revert to skill-based behaviours. The direct consequence of stress on the decision making mechanism of the operator is the selection of inappropriate choice of action. A formal representation of decision errors is proposed and various techniques are suggested for representing various mechanisms for decision error making. The degree of experience possessed by the operator is also an important factor to the operator's tolerance of stress. The framework also allows the experience of the operator to be integrated into the model. Such an operator model can be linked to a plant simulator and the complete behaviour of the plant then be simulated

  4. Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2....... Sensitivity analysis employs the standardized regression coefficient (SRC) method, which provides a global sensitivity measure, βi, thereby showing how much each parameter contributes to the variance (uncertainty) of the model predictions. Thus, identifying the most critical parameters involved in the process......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

  5. Drinking water biofilm cohesiveness changes under chlorination or hydrodynamic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathieu, L; Bertrand, I; Abe, Y; Angel, E; Block, J C; Skali-Lami, S; Francius, G

    2014-05-15

    Attempts at removal of drinking water biofilms rely on various preventive and curative strategies such as nutrient reduction in drinking water, disinfection or water flushing, which have demonstrated limited efficiency. The main reason for these failures is the cohesiveness of the biofilm driven by the physico-chemical properties of its exopolymeric matrix (EPS). Effective cleaning procedures should break up the matrix and/or change the elastic properties of bacterial biofilms. The aim of this study was to evaluate the change in the cohesive strength of two-month-old drinking water biofilms under increasing hydrodynamic shear stress τw (from ∼0.2 to ∼10 Pa) and shock chlorination (applied concentration at T0: 10 mg Cl2/L; 60 min contact time). Biofilm erosion (cell loss per unit surface area) and cohesiveness (changes in the detachment shear stress and cluster volumes measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM)) were studied. When rapidly increasing the hydrodynamic constraint, biofilm removal was found to be dependent on a dual process of erosion and coalescence of the biofilm clusters. Indeed, 56% of the biofilm cells were removed with, concomitantly, a decrease in the number of the 50-300 μm(3) clusters and an increase in the number of the smaller (i.e., 600 μm(3)) ones. Moreover, AFM evidenced the strengthening of the biofilm structure along with the doubling of the number of contact points, NC, per cluster volume unit following the hydrodynamic disturbance. This suggests that the compactness of the biofilm exopolymers increases with hydrodynamic stress. Shock chlorination removed cells (-75%) from the biofilm while reducing the volume of biofilm clusters. Oxidation stress resulted in a decrease in the cohesive strength profile of the remaining drinking water biofilms linked to a reduction in the number of contact points within the biofilm network structure in particular for the largest biofilm cluster volumes (>200 μm(3)). Changes in the cohesive

  6. Stormwater management: adaptation and planning under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mailhot, A.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a future climate. Such a change will have an impact on the level of service provided by stormwater infrastructures since the current capacity is based on statistical analyses of past events, assuming that past conditions are representative of future climate conditions. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events will result in increasing runoff volumes and peak discharges that will more frequently exceed the capacity of current systems. For that reason, it is important to look for adaptation measures and to review design criteria in order to maintain an acceptable level of service in the long term. One important challenge related to stormwater management and climate change (CC) is related to the time scale of both the expected lifespan of some system components (that can last up to 100 years) and the horizon of the actual CC projection (50 to 100 years). Pipes currently replaced or installed may consequently experience very different climatic conditions during their lifetime and a general degradation of the level of service may be expected according to the actual CC projections. Among others, this means that the design criteria currently used must be reviewed. This paper intends to review and describe the main issues related to adaptation and planning of stormwater management infrastructures under climate change. More precisely, the following topics will be presented and discussed: 1) what are the available projections for intense rainfall events and what are the main uncertainties related to these projections? (how reliable are they?); 2) what will be the impacts of CC on stormwater management according to available projections? 3) how do we revise design criteria in a changing climate and define the level of service in a context where the return period concept is no longer valid? 4) what kind of adaptation measures can be put forward

  7. A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2015-12-06

    Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

  8. Effective Governance in the Era of Disruptive Changes in Business Illustrated by the Tata Capital Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Caspar; Sherman, David; Haraszuk, Anni

    2015-01-01

    Identifying, assessing, managing, and containing risks is a fundamental responsibility of business and ‘business as usual’ in 2015. The question is: How can businesses be effectively governed in an era of disruptive changes while managing risks of business? This article explores – through the case...... example of Tata Capital, part of the Indian, global conglomerate Tata Group – how to effectively govern in an environment of disruptive forces impacting business while managing risk seen from an audit committee and internal audit perspective. Effective governance through regular evaluation of internal...... financial controls and risk management ensures that the systems of risk management are robust and defensible. This agenda should be integrated into the audit committee oversight and cannot merely reflect a check the box exercise. Instead, as illustrated by the Tata Capital Framework, it must reflect...

  9. Influencing Genomic Change and Cancer Disparities through Neighborhood Chronic Toxic Stress Exposure: A Research Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGuzman, Pamela B; Schminkey, Donna L

    2016-11-01

    Black Americans have disproportionately higher incidence and mortality rates for many cancers. These disparities may be related to genomic changes that occur from exposure to chronic toxic stress and may result from conditions associated with living in racially segregated neighborhoods with high rates of concentrated poverty. The purpose of this article is to present a nursing research framework for developing and testing neighborhood-level interventions that have the potential to mitigate exposure to neighborhood-associated chronic toxic stress, improve individual-level genomic sequelae and cancer outcomes, and reduce cancer health disparities of Black Americans. Public health nursing researchers should collaborate with local officials to determine ways to reduce neighborhood-level stress. Intermediate outcomes can be measured using genomic or other stress biomarkers, and long-term outcomes can be measured by evaluating population-level cancer incidence and mortality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Coding conventions and principles for a National Land-Change Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, David I.

    2017-07-14

    This report establishes specific rules for writing computer source code for use with the National Land-Change Modeling Framework (NLCMF). These specific rules consist of conventions and principles for writing code primarily in the C and C++ programming languages. Collectively, these coding conventions and coding principles create an NLCMF programming style. In addition to detailed naming conventions, this report provides general coding conventions and principles intended to facilitate the development of high-performance software implemented with code that is extensible, flexible, and interoperable. Conventions for developing modular code are explained in general terms and also enabled and demonstrated through the appended templates for C++ base source-code and header files. The NLCMF limited-extern approach to module structure, code inclusion, and cross-module access to data is both explained in the text and then illustrated through the module templates. Advice on the use of global variables is provided.

  11. A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

    2010-02-01

    In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A framework for model-based optimization of bioprocesses under uncertainty: Lignocellulosic ethanol production case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2012-01-01

    .), hydrolysis (inhibition constant for xylose on conversion of cellulose and cellobiose, etc) and co-fermentation (ethanol yield on xylose, inhibition constant on microbial growth, etc.), are the most significant sources of uncertainties affecting the unit production cost of ethanol with a standard deviation...... metrics via uncertainty analysis. Finally, stochastic programming is applied to drive the process development efforts forward subject to these uncertainties. The framework is evaluated on four different process configurations for cellulosic ethanol production including Simultaneous Saccharification and Co...... of up to 0.13 USD/gal-ethanol. Further stochastic optimization demonstrated the options for further reduction of the production costs with different processing configurations, reaching a reduction of up to 28% in the production cost in the SHCF configuration compared to the base case operation. Further...

  13. Exploring Horizon 2020: opportunities for CERN under the new EU Framework Programme

    CERN Multimedia

    Agnes Szeberenyi

    2014-01-01

    December marked the end of the EU Framework Programme 7 (FP7), which ran between 2007 and 2013. During these seven years, CERN's involvement was very fruitful. The Organization participated in 87 EU projects - out of which CERN was the coordinating institute for 36 projects - with a corresponding European Commission (EC) funding of more than €110 million. This ranked CERN in the top 50 out of more than 15,000 FP7 participants.   CERN's involvement in FP7 projects. CERN was primarily involved in the FP7 pillars: Research Infrastructures (14 projects), e-Infrastructures (20 projects), Marie Curie actions (28 projects) and ERC grants (9 projects). In terms of proposal success rate and received EU funding, CERN's involvement in the Marie Curie actions programme was the most successful. Half of the total EC funding received at CERN was obtained through Marie Curie actions to train and improve the mobility of scientists and engineers at different stages of their ca...

  14. Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies for safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuator. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster when subjected to high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management. Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life based on their current state of heal th and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. The focus of this paper is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions and implementing Bayesian framework for making remaining useful life predictions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to remaining useful life in DC-DC converters.

  15. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  16. A new fuzzy framework for the optimal placement of phasor measurement units under normal and abnormal conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ragab A. El-Sehiemy

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new procedure for finding the optimal placement of the phasor measurement units (PMUs in modern power grids to achieve full network observability under normal operating conditions, and also abnormal operating conditions such as a single line or PMU outage, while considering the availability of PMU measuring channels. The proposed modeling framework is implemented using the fuzzy binary linear programming (FBLP technique. Linear fuzzy models are proposed for the objective function and constraints alike. The proposed procedure is applied to five benchmark systems such as the IEEE 14-bus, 30-bus, 39-bus, 57-bus, and 118-bus. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed framework is capable of finding a fine-tuned optimal solution with a simple model and acceptable solution characteristics compared with early works in the literature. Besides, four evaluation indices are introduced to assure the various criteria under study such as the observability depth, measurement redundancy, and robustness of the method under contingencies. The results show that full network observability can be met under normal conditions using 20% PMUs penetration; however, under contingencies, approximately 50% PMUs penetration is required. The novelty of the proposed procedure has proven the capability of the proposed linear fuzzy models to find better optimal number of PMUs with lower number of channels compared to other algorithms under various operating conditions. Hence, the proposed work represents a potential tool to monitor power systems, and it will help the operators in a smart grid environment. Keywords: Binary linear programming, Fuzzy models, Observability, Optimization, Phasor measurement unit, Smart grids

  17. Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallema, Dennis W.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gumiere, Silvio J.; Périard, Yann; Hiemstra, Paul H.; Bouttier, Léa; Fossey, Maxime; Paquette, Alain; Cogliastro, Alain; Olivier, Alain

    2014-09-01

    Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

  18. Ensuring the inclusion of sexual and reproductive health and rights under a sustainable development goal on health in the post-2015 human rights framework for development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslegrave, Marianne

    2013-11-01

    Since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo placed reproductive health and rights firmly on the international agenda, civil society and other advocates have worked ceaselessly to ensure that they remain central to women's empowerment and have taken all opportunities to expand the framework to include sexual health and rights. When the development process changed with the introduction of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, sexual and reproductive health and rights were excluded, and only in 2007 was universal access to reproductive health added back in. In 2014 and 2015, the future of ICPD Beyond 2014, the MDGs and the post-2015 development framework will be decided, following consultations and meetings across the globe. This paper takes stock of the key influences on efforts to achieve the ICPD agenda and summarises the past, current and planned future events, reports and processes between 1994 and 2014, leading up to the determination of the post-2015 development framework and sustainable development goals. It concludes that the one thing we cannot afford to allow is what happened with the MDGs in 2000. We must not leave the room empty-handed, but must instead ensure the inclusion of sexual and reproductive health and rights as a priority under a new health goal. Copyright © 2013 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

    2016-10-01

    Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

  20. Evaluating the transitional mosaic: frameworks of change from Neanderthals to Homo sapiens in eastern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, William; White, Dustin; Lewis, Mark; Stringer, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Defining varying spatial and temporal analytical scales is essential before evaluating the responses of late Neanderthals and early Homo sapiens to Abrupt Environmental Transitions (AETs) and environmental disasters for the period 130-25 ka. Recent advances in addressing the population histories and interactions (using both genetic and archaeological evidence) of Neanderthals and H. sapiens have encouraged consideration of more subtle dynamics of archaeological change. Descriptions of change based on methodologies pioneered some 160 years ago are no longer adequate to explain the patterning we now see in the record. New chronological results, using multiple dating methods, allow us to begin to unpick the spatial and temporal scales of change. Isochronic markers (such as specific volcanic eruptions) can be used to create temporal frameworks (lattices), and results from other dating techniques compared against them. A combination of chronological lattices and direct dating of diagnostic artefacts and human fossils permits us, for the first time, to have greater confidence in connecting human (recent hominin) species and their behavioural responses to environmental conditions, and in quantifying scales of change over time and space (time-transgression). The timing of innovations, particularly those in bone, antler and ivory, can be directly quantified and tested, and used to re-evaluate longstanding models of cultural change. This paper also uses these new chronologies to explore the ecologies of late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens: their population densities, mobilities, resources exploited and possible interactions. Environmental productivity estimates are used to generate new questions of potential population densities and mobilities, and thus the sensitivity of these groups to environmental perturbations. Scales and intensities of effect on environments from natural disasters and AETs (notably Heinrich Events and the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption) are defined

  1. Emergence of human resilience in coastal ecosystems under environmental change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilufar Matin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Resilience has been studied in a number of disciplines, predominantly in psychosocial and ecological sciences. Although there are striking similarities in their approaches, the psychosocial tradition has centered on the family and its immediate surroundings, whereas the social-ecological approach has focused on macrosystems that stop at the family level. Recently, the need for bridging these gaps has been echoed by researchers from both these traditions, particularly for promoting resilience of individuals and their wider environment in the context of natural disasters and climate change. However, a new synthesis of social-ecological and behavioral theories integrating multiple dynamic systems that interact across levels is strikingly rare. We addressed some of these issues in the context of complex coastal ecosystems in the Sundarbans region in southwest Bangladesh soon after the Cyclone Aila, which hit the coast in May 2009. The devastation that followed tested the endurance and resilience of people and nature alike. We used an integrated method that combined Antonovsky's sense of coherence scale with narrative inquiry for assessing human resilience. The quantitative analysis was able to address gender, educational, and livelihood dimensions of individual resilience. Life history narratives were found particularly useful in bringing out the underlying contexts and processes that embody individual social-ecological interactions that influence the construct of human resilience. These exercises show that the emergence of human resilience must be understood as a holistic and dynamic process because the variables that contribute to its emergence interact in complex ways.

  2. Soil Tillage Systems and Wheat Yield under Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieranna Servadio

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the effects of three different main preparatory tillage operations: ploughing at 0.4 m (P40 and 0.20 m (P20 depth and harrowing at 0.20 m depth (MT were investigated. The tillage operations were carried out at two different times, as the soil water content increased over time from rainfall: (low, 58% (LH and high, 80% (HH of field capacity. Results obtained from the soil monitoring carried out before and after tillage showed high values of soil strength in terms of Penetration resistance and shear strength particularly in deeper soil layers at lower water content. During tillage, fossil-fuel energy requirements for P40 LH and P20 LH were 25% and 35% higher, respectively, with respect to the HH treatments and tractor slip was very high (P40 LH = 32.4% with respect to the P40 HH treatment (16%. Soil water content significantly influenced tractor performance during soil ploughing at 0.40 m depth but no effect was observed for the MT treatment. The highly significant linear relations between grain yield and soil penetration resistance highlight how soil strength may be good indicator of soil productivity. We conclude that ploughing soil to a 0.20 m depth or harrowing soil to a 0.20 m depth is suitable for this type of soil under climate change scenarios.

  3. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Mumby, P J; Hooten, A J; Steneck, R S; Greenfield, P; Gomez, E; Harvell, C D; Sale, P F; Edwards, A J; Caldeira, K; Knowlton, N; Eakin, C M; Iglesias-Prieto, R; Muthiga, N; Bradbury, R H; Dubi, A; Hatziolos, M E

    2007-12-14

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  4. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  5. Regional climate change under high-end global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Michael; Hemming, Deborah; Betts, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. If no steps are taken to reduce these emissions, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed the limit of 2 deg.C by 2100 (relative to the preindustrial period) desired by the EU. The climate projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suggest that global temperatures will increase between 1.6 and 6.9 deg.C by 2100, relative to the preindustrial period. Global mean temperature increases of 4 deg.C or more (referred to as 'high-end' projections) are therefore entirely possible. Here, we examine changes in temperature and precipitation from several ensembles of climate models, focusing on those projections where global mean temperatures increase by 4 deg.C or more by the 2090s. We have examined projections from the AR4 models, and the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensembles (Qump; based on the HadCM3 climate model). One of the Qump ensembles included an interactive carbon cycle. Previous work has shown that feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle can result in enhanced global warming. These ensembles used greenhouse gas concentrations from a subset of the SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B, A2 and A1FI. The results show that high-end climate change would be avoided if emissions follow the B1 trajectory. However, high-end changes become increasingly frequent under the A1B, A2 and A1FI scenarios (in that order). Overall, 52 of the 131 projections analysed were classed as high-end. The high-end projections suggest that 4 deg.C global warming could be reached by the 2080s, or by the 2070s if emissions are high. If feedbacks from the carbon cycle are strong, 4 deg.C could be reached as early as the 2060s, although our current understanding suggests that such strong feedbacks are unlikely. We also compared global maps of temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end and the remaining members of each ensemble. We found that, using multi

  6. A Crisis Framework Applied to Macrosociological Family Changes: Marriage, Divorce, and Occupational Trends Associated with World War II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman-Blumen, Jean

    1975-01-01

    A typology of crises is developed to be used with critical aspects of the social system to predict both crisis and postcrisis period role changes. The crisis framework is then applied to macro-changes in family structure in response to an archetypal crisis, World War II. Census data generally support the hypotheses. (Author)

  7. Naming as Strategic Communication: Understanding Corporate Name Change through an Integrative Framework Encompassing Branding, Identity and Institutional Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmeltz, Line; Kjeldsen, Anna Karina

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a framework for understanding corporate name change as strategic communication. From a corporate branding perspective, the choice of a new name can be seen as a wish to stand out from a group of similar organizations. Conversely, from an institutional perspective, name change...

  8. Smart city planning under the climate change condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

    2017-08-01

    With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

  9. Policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. The case of the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levina, E.; Jacob, J.S.; Ramos Bustillos, L.E.; Ortiz, I.

    2007-05-01

    This paper is the third in a series of AIXG (Annex I Expert Group on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)) papers that analyse the roles that national policy frameworks of various sectors play in adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is unlikely to be a standalone process. It occurs within the existing sectoral and cross-sectoral policy frameworks, including legal provisions, institutional structures, policies and management practices, and is supported by the available information tools. The previous two papers focused on the water sector. The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse policy frameworks that are important for facilitating adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal zones. The paper is based on the analysis of the Gulf of Mexico. Two countries, the US and Mexico, are examined, with a focus on two aspects of coastal zones: wetlands and built environment. Next to these two sectors attention is paid to four components that construct policy frameworks, namely legal framework, institutional landscape, policies and management tools, and information. Following a brief introduction of the Gulf of Mexico region, its physical and economic characteristics, the paper takes a look at current climatic conditions and trends in the Gulf region and expected climate change impacts and the key vulnerabilities of the region to these changes (Section 2). The rational for the scope and focus of the sectoral analysis presented in this paper can also be found in Section 2. Section 3 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern wetlands in the US and Mexico and their links with adaptation. Section 4 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern the development of human settlements, and adaptation to climate change. Sections 3 and 4 follow a structure similar to the one that was used for the two previous papers on policy frameworks for adaptation in the water sector. Both sections examine

  10. Policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. The case of the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levina, E. [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France); Jacob, J.S. [Texas Sea Grant, Texas Cooperative Extension, Texas A and M University System, Houston, TX (United States); Ramos Bustillos, L.E. [Ramos-Hoek Consultancy, Ajijic, Chapala (Mexico); Ortiz, I. [SAFS University of Washington, Washington DC (United States)

    2007-05-15

    This paper is the third in a series of AIXG (Annex I Expert Group on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)) papers that analyse the roles that national policy frameworks of various sectors play in adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is unlikely to be a standalone process. It occurs within the existing sectoral and cross-sectoral policy frameworks, including legal provisions, institutional structures, policies and management practices, and is supported by the available information tools. The previous two papers focused on the water sector. The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse policy frameworks that are important for facilitating adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal zones. The paper is based on the analysis of the Gulf of Mexico. Two countries, the US and Mexico, are examined, with a focus on two aspects of coastal zones: wetlands and built environment. Next to these two sectors attention is paid to four components that construct policy frameworks, namely legal framework, institutional landscape, policies and management tools, and information. Following a brief introduction of the Gulf of Mexico region, its physical and economic characteristics, the paper takes a look at current climatic conditions and trends in the Gulf region and expected climate change impacts and the key vulnerabilities of the region to these changes (Section 2). The rational for the scope and focus of the sectoral analysis presented in this paper can also be found in Section 2. Section 3 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern wetlands in the US and Mexico and their links with adaptation. Section 4 focuses on the analysis of policy frameworks that govern the development of human settlements, and adaptation to climate change. Sections 3 and 4 follow a structure similar to the one that was used for the two previous papers on policy frameworks for adaptation in the water sector. Both sections examine

  11. What role does performance information play in securing improvement in healthcare? a conceptual framework for levers of change

    OpenAIRE

    Levesque, Jean-Frederic; Sutherland, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Objective Across healthcare systems, there is consensus on the need for independent and impartial assessment of performance. There is less agreement about how measurement and reporting performance improves healthcare. This paper draws on academic theories to develop a conceptual framework—one that classifies in an integrated manner the ways in which change can be leveraged by healthcare performance information. Methods A synthesis of published frameworks. Results The framework identifies eigh...

  12. Mathematics Teaching as Problem Solving: A Framework for Studying Teacher Metacognition Underlying Instructional Practice in Mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artzt, Alice F.; Armour-Thomas, Eleanor

    1998-01-01

    Uses a "teaching as problem solving" perspective to examine the components of metacognition underlying the instructional practice of seven experienced and seven beginning secondary-school mathematics teachers. Data analysis of observations, lesson plans, videotapes, and audiotapes of structured interviews suggests that the metacognition of…

  13. Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of

  14. A Nonlinear Framework of Delayed Particle Smoothing Method for Vehicle Localization under Non-Gaussian Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Xiao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel nonlinear framework of smoothing method, non-Gaussian delayed particle smoother (nGDPS, is proposed, which enables vehicle state estimation (VSE with high accuracy taking into account the non-Gaussianity of the measurement and process noises. Within the proposed method, the multivariate Student’s t-distribution is adopted in order to compute the probability distribution function (PDF related to the process and measurement noises, which are assumed to be non-Gaussian distributed. A computation approach based on Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is designed to cope with the mean and the covariance matrix of the proposal non-Gaussian distribution. A delayed Gibbs sampling algorithm, which incorporates smoothing of the sampled trajectories over a fixed-delay, is proposed to deal with the sample degeneracy of particles. The performance is investigated based on the real-world data, which is collected by low-cost on-board vehicle sensors. The comparison study based on the real-world experiments and the statistical analysis demonstrates that the proposed nGDPS has significant improvement on the vehicle state accuracy and outperforms the existing filtering and smoothing methods.

  15. Theories of behaviour change synthesised into a set of theoretical groupings: introducing a thematic series on the theoretical domains framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Jill J; O'Connor, Denise; Curran, Janet

    2012-04-24

    Behaviour change is key to increasing the uptake of evidence into healthcare practice. Designing behaviour-change interventions first requires problem analysis, ideally informed by theory. Yet the large number of partly overlapping theories of behaviour makes it difficult to select the most appropriate theory. The need for an overarching theoretical framework of behaviour change was addressed in research in which 128 explanatory constructs from 33 theories of behaviour were identified and grouped. The resulting Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) appears to be a helpful basis for investigating implementation problems. Research groups in several countries have conducted TDF-based studies. It seems timely to bring together the experience of these teams in a thematic series to demonstrate further applications and to report key developments. This overview article describes the TDF, provides a brief critique of the framework, and introduces this thematic series.In a brief review to assess the extent of TDF-based research, we identified 133 papers that cite the framework. Of these, 17 used the TDF as the basis for empirical studies to explore health professionals' behaviour. The identified papers provide evidence of the impact of the TDF on implementation research. Two major strengths of the framework are its theoretical coverage and its capacity to elicit beliefs that could signify key mediators of behaviour change. The TDF provides a useful conceptual basis for assessing implementation problems, designing interventions to enhance healthcare practice, and understanding behaviour-change processes. We discuss limitations and research challenges and introduce papers in this series.

  16. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  17. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2008-06-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in current global climate models (GCMs). The representation of potential changes in the form of a probability density function (PDF) is increasingly sought for applications. This article presents a method of estimating PDFs for projections based on the "pattern scaling" technique, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the standardized regional change. A mathematical framework for the problem is developed, which includes a joint probability distribution for the product of these two factors. Several simple approaches are considered for representing the factors by PDFs using GCM results, allowing model weighting. The four-parameter beta distribution is found to provide a smooth PDF that can match the mean and range of GCM results, allowing skewness when appropriate. A beta representation of the range in global warming consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report is presented. The method is applied to changes in Australian temperature and precipitation, under the A1B scenario of concentrations, using results from 23 GCMs in the CMIP3 database. Statistical results, including percentiles and threshold exceedences, are compared for the case of southern Australian temperature change in summer. For the precipitation example, central Australian winter rainfall, the usual linear scaling assumption produces a net change PDF that extends to unphysically large decreases. This is avoided by assuming an exponential relationship between percentage decreases in rainfall and warming.

  18. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2016-01-01

    SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of

  19. What Is Robustness?: Problem Framing Challenges for Water Systems Planning Under Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J. D.; Reed, P. M.; Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2014-12-01

    Water systems planners have long recognized the need for robust solutions capable of withstanding deviations from the conditions for which they were designed. Faced with a set of alternatives to choose from—for example, resulting from a multi-objective optimization—existing analysis frameworks offer competing definitions of robustness under change. Robustness analyses have moved from expected utility to exploratory "bottom-up" approaches in which vulnerable scenarios are identified prior to assigning likelihoods; examples include Robust Decision Making (RDM), Decision Scaling, Info-Gap, and Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM). We propose a taxonomy of robustness frameworks to compare and contrast these approaches, based on their methods of (1) alternative selection, (2) sampling of states of the world, (3) quantification of robustness measures, and (4) identification of key uncertainties using sensitivity analysis. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban water supply portfolio planning, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences that emerge from each of these choices. Results indicate that the methodological choices in the taxonomy lead to substantially different planning alternatives, underscoring the importance of an informed definition of robustness. We conclude with a set of recommendations for problem framing: that alternatives should be searched rather than prespecified; dominant uncertainties should be discovered rather than assumed; and that a multivariate satisficing measure of robustness allows stakeholders to achieve their problem-specific performance requirements. This work highlights the importance of careful problem formulation, and provides a common vocabulary to link the robustness frameworks widely used in the field of water systems planning.

  20. Progress and hurdles to forecasting phenology: How networked experiments and a species' traits framework can improve predictions with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.

    2012-12-01

    Accurate predictions of the timing of plant leafing and flowering are critical to models of global carbon budgets and future ecosystem services under climate change scenarios. Yet useful predictions have proven difficult for all but a handful of well-studied tree and crop species; further, comparisons of predictions across methods have highlighted large inconsistencies, which suggest robust forecasting of future ecosystems' plant phenology is still not within reach. Here I highlight how new approaches in ecological research could rapidly contribute to improved understanding of plant phenology across species, growing seasons and ecosystems. I first show how re-designed warming experiments--including standardized methods and analyses--would allow more useful comparisons with other methods and improved opportunities to study non-linearities and phenological cues beyond temperature. I then highlight how a species trait framework is critical for predicting shifts across years and ecosystems. I show that invasive species are generally 20-40% more sensitive to temperature than native species in temperate ecosystems--with responses in summer drought systems more complex and soil moisture dependent. Additionally, I show that annual species are 20% more temperature sensitive than perennials. Such species' responses may be especially critical for predicting longer growing seasons and their related carbon balances in future systems. Combined with a returned focus to the physiology of phenology and standardized experimental approaches ecologically-focused climate change research can allow rapid progress in understanding plant phenology across species and ecosystems.