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Sample records for treatment predicts mortality

  1. Predicting 6-month mortality risk of patients commencing dialysis treatment for end-stage kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivory, Sara E; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; Khandakar, Yeasmin; Kasza, Jessica; Zoungas, Sophia; Steenkamp, Retha; Roderick, Paul; Wolfe, Rory

    2017-09-01

    There is evidence that end-stage kidney disease patients who are older or with more comorbidity may have a poor trade-off between benefits of dialysis and potential harms. We aimed to develop a tool for predicting patient mortality in the early stages of receiving dialysis. In 23 658 patients aged 15+ years commencing dialysis between 2000 and 2009 in Australia and New Zealand a point score tool was developed to predict 6-month mortality based on a logistic regression analysis of factors available at dialysis initiation. Temporal validation used 2009-11 data from Australia and New Zealand. External validation used the UK Renal Registry. Within 6 months of commencing dialysis 6.1% of patients had died. A small group (4.7%) of patients had a high predicted mortality risk (>20%), as predicted by the point score tool. Predictive variables were: older age, underweight, chronic lung disease, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, cerebrovascular disease (particularly for patients new point score tool outperformed existing models, and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.755 on temporal validation with acceptable calibration and 0.713 on external validation with poor calibration. Our point score tool for predicting 6-month mortality in patients at dialysis commencement has sufficient prognostic accuracy to use in Australia and New Zealand for prognosis and identification of high risk patients who may be given appropriate supportive care. Use in other countries requires further study.

  2. Predicting Mortality in Patients Developing Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: Impact of Treatment Modality and Recurrence Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Adam S; Lunsford, Keri E; Markovic, Daniela; Harlander-Locke, Michael P; Busuttil, Ronald W; Agopian, Vatche G

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate predictors of mortality and impact of treatment in patients developing recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT). Despite well-described clinicopathologic predictors of posttransplant HCC recurrence, data on prognosis following recurrence are scarce. Multivariate predictors of mortality following HCC recurrence were identified to develop a risk score model to stratify prognostic subgroups among 106 patients developing posttransplant recurrence from 1984 to 2014, including analysis of recurrence treatment modality on survival. Of 857 patients undergoing LT, 106 (12.4%) developed posttransplant HCC recurrence (median 15.8 months following LT) with a median post-recurrence survival of 10.6 months. Patients receiving surgical therapy (n = 25) had a median survival of 27.8 months, significantly superior to patients receiving nonsurgical therapy (10.6 months) and best supportive care (3.7 months, P 23, time to recurrence, >3 recurrent nodules, maximum recurrence size, bone recurrence, alphafetoprotein at recurrence, donor serum sodium, and pretransplant recipient neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio. A risk score model based on multivariate predictors accurately stratified recurrent HCC patients into prognostic subgroups, with low-risk patients (16 points) groups (C-statistic 0.75, P < 0.001). In the largest single-center report of recurrent HCC following LT, surgical treatment in well-selected patients is associated with significantly improved survival and should be pursued. A risk score model accurately stratifies prognostic subgroups, and may help guide treatment strategies.

  3. Response of branch growth and mortality to silvicultural treatments in coastal Douglas-fir plantations: implications for predicting tree growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.R. Weiskittel; D. Maguire; R.A. Monserud

    2007-01-01

    Static models of individual tree crown attributes such as height to crown base and maximum branch diameter profile have been developed for several commercially important species. Dynamic models of individual branch growth and mortality have received less attention, but have generally been developed retrospectively by dissecting felled trees; however, this approach is...

  4. Treatment options and predictive factors for recurrence and cancer-specific mortality in bladder cancer after renal transplantation: A multi-institutional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Faba, O; Palou, J; Vila Reyes, H; Guirado, L; Palazzetti, A; Gontero, P; Vigués, F; Garcia-Olaverri, J; Fernández Gómez, J M; Olsburg, J; Terrone, C; Figueiredo, A; Burgos, J; Lledó, E; Breda, A

    2017-12-01

    Bladder cancer (BC) in the transplanted population can represent a challenge owing to the immunosuppressed state of patients and the higher rate of comorbidities. The objective was to analyze the treatment of BC after renal transplant (RT), focusing on the mode of presentation, diagnosis, treatment options and predictive factors for recurrence. We conducted an observational prospective study with a retrospective analysis of 88 patients with BC after RT at 10 European centers. Clinical and oncologic data were collected, and indications and results of adjuvant treatment reviewed. The Kaplan-Meier method and uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. A total of 10,000 RTs were performed. Diagnosis of BC occurred at a median of 73 months after RT. Median follow-up was 126 months. Seventy-one patients (81.6%) had non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, of whom 29 (40.8%) received adjuvant treatment; of these, six (20.6%) received bacillus Calmette-Guérin and 20 (68.9%) mitomycin C. At univariate analysis, patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin had a significantly lower recurrence rate (P=.043). At multivariate analysis, a switch from immunosuppression to mTOR inhibitors significantly reduced the risk of recurrence (HR 0.24, 95% CI: 0.053-0.997, P=.049) while presence of multiple tumors increased it (HR 6.31, 95% CI: 1.78-22.3, P=.004). Globally, 26 patients (29.88%) underwent cystectomy. No major complications were recorded. Overall mortality (OM) was 32.2% (28 patients); the cancer-specific mortality was 13.8%. Adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Guérin significantly reduces the risk of recurrence, as does switch to mTOR inhibitors. Multiple tumors increase the risk. Copyright © 2017 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Is response to anti-hepatitis C virus treatment predictive of mortality in hepatitis C virus/HIV-positive patients?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Lars; Raben, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Long-term clinical outcomes after hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment of HIV/HCV patients are not well described. We aimed to compare the risk of all-cause and liver-related death (LRD) according to HCV treatment response in HIV/HCV patients in the multicohort study Collaboration...... of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research in Europe. METHODS: All patients who had started pegylated interferon + ribavirin (baseline) and followed for at least 72 weeks after baseline were included. Patients were categorized into three response groups depending on treatment duration and HCV-RNA measured...... (nonresponders vs. responders) for all-cause death, LRD and nonliver-related death was 1.53 (95% CI 1.06-2.22), 3.39 (95% CI 1.32-8.75) and 1.22 (95% CI 0.80-1.84), respectively. CONCLUSION: HIV/HCV patients with a favourable virological response to pegylated interferon + ribavirin had reduced risk of all...

  6. Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

    2017-07-01

    Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Delorme

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 seconds. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail. Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance and warrants further investigation.

  8. Validation of the mortality prediction equation for damage control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , preoperative lowest pH and lowest core body temperature to derive an equation for the purpose of predicting mortality in damage control surgery. It was shown to reliably predict death despite damage control surgery. The equation derivation ...

  9. Boey Score in Predicting Mortality in Patients with Perforated Peptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A number of prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality following perforated peptic ulcer have been reported, but the most well known is Boey's score which is simple with a high predictive value. Aim: The aim of this study was to predict mortality in patients with perforated peptic ulcer using the Boey's score.

  10. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs : A validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-01-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month

  11. Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The median age was 70 years (interquartile range 67 - 75 years). The overall ICU mortality was 44.7%, and 64% of deaths occurred within 5 days of admission. On univariate analysis, the factors predicting mortality were alcohol misuse (p=0.09), pneumonia (p.0.001), shock (p=0.001), dehydration (p=0.007), urine output ...

  12. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  13. Poor Semen Quality Predicts Increased Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Bostofte, Erik; Jacobsen, Rune

    is not increased. The long-term survival of men with poor semen quality is, however, unknown. We therefore studied the associations between semen characteristics and subsequent mortality. Back to Top Material and Methods: The Copenhagen Sperm Analysis Laboratory is one of several public semen analysis laboratories......Objective: Over recent decades a possible decrease in semen quality and an increase in the incidence of testicular cancer have been reported. In addition, men with poor semen quality have been reported to be at increased risk of developing testicular cancer whereas the risk of other cancers...... occurred first. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) compared with total population of Danish men were calculated according to sperm concentration, motility, and morphology. Back to Top Results: Men with a sperm concentration between 1 and 9 and 10 and 19 million/mL had SMRs of 1.57 (95% CI 1.35–1.81) and 1...

  14. Predictors of treatment failure and mortality in native septic arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneiro, Jose R; Souto, Alejandro; Cervantes, Evelin C; Mera, Antonio; Carmona, Loreto; Gomez-Reino, Juan J

    2015-11-01

    The aims of this study are to analyse the characteristics of septic arthritis stratified by age and to identify the predictors of treatment failure and mortality in septic arthritis. A retrospective single-centre study was conducted in patients with native septic arthritis between 1994 and 2012. The primary outcome was treatment failure. Secondary outcomes included mortality, complications, endocarditis, bacteraemia, hospital readmission and the duration of the hospital stay. Logistic regression analyses with a propensity score were performed to identify the predictors of response and mortality. Additional analyses were performed according to age and the initial treatment (surgery or conservative). A total of 186 patients were studied. The median (interquartile range) age was 64 (46, 74) years, and the percentage of male patients was 68.9%. A logistic regression analysis showed that Staphylococcus aureus infection [OR 2.39 (1.20-4.77), p = 0.013], endocarditis [OR 4.74 (1.16-19.24), p = 0.029] and the involvement of joints difficult to access with needle drainage [OR 2.33 (1.06-5.11), p = 0.034] predict treatment failure and that age [OR 1.27 (1.07 = 1.50), p = 0.005], the leucocyte count at baseline [OR 1.01 (1.00-1.02), p = 0.023], bacteraemia [OR 27.66 (1.39-551.20), p = 0.030], diabetes mellitus [OR 15.33 (1.36-172.67), p = 0.027] and chronic renal failure [OR 81.27 (3.32-1990.20), p = 0.007] predict mortality. No significant differences in treatment failure by age were found. In septic arthritis, the predictors of mortality and the predictors of treatment failure differ. The predictors of treatment failure concern local factors and systemic complications, whereas conditions related to the host's immune competence, such as age and comorbidities that hamper the host's response, predict mortality.

  15. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief e...

  16. Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Arnaud Delorme; Arnaud Delorme; Alan Pierce; Leena Michel; Dean Radin

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief ...

  17. Clostridium Difficile Infection Due to Pneumonia Treatment: Mortality Risk Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewska, M; Zycinska, K; Lenartowicz, B; Hadzik-Błaszczyk, M; Cieplak, M; Kur, Z; Wardyn, K A

    2017-01-01

    One of the most common gastrointestinal infection after the antibiotic treatment of community or nosocomial pneumonia is caused by the anaerobic spore Clostridium difficile (C. difficile). The aim of this study was to retrospectively assess mortality due to C. difficile infection (CDI) in patients treated for pneumonia. We identified 94 cases of post-pneumonia CDI out of the 217 patients with CDI. The mortality issue was addressed by creating a mortality risk models using logistic regression and multivariate fractional polynomial analysis. The patients' demographics, clinical features, and laboratory results were taken into consideration. To estimate the influence of the preceding respiratory infection, a pneumonia severity scale was included in the analysis. The analysis showed two statistically significant and clinically relevant mortality models. The model with the highest prognostic strength entailed age, leukocyte count, serum creatinine and urea concentration, hematocrit, coexisting neoplasia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In conclusion, we report on two prognostic models, based on clinically relevant factors, which can be of help in predicting mortality risk in C. difficile infection, secondary to the antibiotic treatment of pneumonia. These models could be useful in preventive tailoring of individual therapy.

  18. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-03-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  20. Anxiety Predicts Mortality in ICD Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kikkenborg Berg, Selina; Caspar Thygesen, Lau; Hastrup Svendsen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although highly effective in preventing arrhythmic death, patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) may still experience psychological difficulties such as anxiety, depression, and reduced quality of life. The objectives of this study were to describe patient...... receiving ICD between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 (n = 499). The following instruments were used: SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HeartQoL, EQ-5D, and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory. RESULTS: The response rate was 72%. Mean age was 65.5 years and 82% patients were males. Fifty...... of perceived health, quality of life, and fatigue; for example, physical health 39.8 versus 44.3 points, compared to secondary prevention indication. Anxiety, poor perceived health, fatigue, and low quality of life were all predictors of mortality, anxiety being the strongest with an adjusted odds ratio of 4...

  1. C-Reactive Protein Levels at Diagnosis of Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Predict Steroid-Refractory Disease, Treatment-Related Mortality, and Overall Survival after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minculescu, Lia; Kornblit, Brian Thomas; Friis, Lone Smidstrups

    2018-01-01

    , and their prognosis is especially poor. There is experimental evidence that coexisting inflammation aggravates aGVHD. Because C-reactive protein (CRP) is a systemic inflammatory marker, we aimed to investigate whether plasma CRP concentrations at the diagnosis of aGVHD can predict the risk of failing first-line......-refractory disease. In these patients, plasma CRP concentration at diagnosis ranged between higher in patients who developed steroid-refractory disease compared with those who responded to high-dose corticosteroid therapy (odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.93......Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains a cause of excessive morbidity and mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Primary treatment consists of high-dose corticosteroids, but a small group of patients develop steroid-refractory disease...

  2. Predicting mortality in the intensive care using episodes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toma, T.; Abu-Hanna, A.; Bosman, R.

    2005-01-01

    Patient outcome prediction lies at the heart of various medically relevant tasks such as quality assessment and decision support. In the intensive care (IC) there are various prognostic models in use today that predict patient mortality. All of these models are logistic regression models that

  3. Adolescent-onset substance use disorders predict young adult mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.; Cornelius, Jack R.

    2009-01-01

    This study determined whether adolescent-onset substance use disorders (SUDs) prospectively predicted early mortality. Among 870 adolescents, 21 young adulthood deaths were observed. Adolescent SUDs, as well as gender, ethnic group, hazardous substance use, and drug trafficking, predicted these deaths. Among African American males with SUDs, 23% died by age 25. PMID:18486875

  4. Inflammatory biomarkers improve clinical prediction of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Celli, Bartolome R; Locantore, Nicholas; Yates, Julie

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of mortality helps select patients for interventions aimed at improving outcome.......Accurate prediction of mortality helps select patients for interventions aimed at improving outcome....

  5. Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, G; La Vecchia, C; Bertuccio, P; Rodriguez, T; Levi, F; Boffetta, P; Negri, E; Malvezzi, M

    2017-09-01

    From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

  6. Predicting mortality in patients with diabetes starting dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merel van Diepen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. METHODS: Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD, a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21% patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy. The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary.

  7. Bone Marrow Pathology Predicts Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hao Weng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A bone marrow biopsy is a useful procedure for the diagnosis and staging of various hematologic and systemic diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the findings of bone marrow studies can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. Methods. Seventy-eight end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis underwent bone marrow biopsies between 2000 and 2011, with the most common indication being unexplained anemia followed by unexplained leukocytosis and leukopenia. Results. The survivors had a higher incidence of abnormal megakaryocyte distribution P=0.001, band and segmented cells P=0.021, and lymphoid cells P=0.029 than the nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 38.5% (30/78, and the most common cause of mortality was sepsis (83.3% followed by respiratory failure (10%. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both decreased (OR 3.714, 95% CI 1.671–8.253, P=0.001 and absent (OR 9.751, 95% CI 2.030–45.115, P=0.004 megakaryocyte distribution (normal megakaryocyte distribution as the reference group, as well as myeloid/erythroid ratio (OR 1.054, CI 1.012–1.098, P=0.011, were predictive of mortality. Conclusion. The results of a bone marrow biopsy can be used to assess the pathology, and, in addition, myeloid/erythroid ratio and abnormal megakaryocyte distribution can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

  8. Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck, Mette Kristina; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach

    2016-01-01

    Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history...... to predict sepsis mortality. We benefit from data in electronic medical records covering all hospital encounters in Denmark from 1996 to 2014. This data set included 6.6 million patients of whom almost 120,000 were diagnosed with the ICD-10 code: A41 'Other sepsis'. Interestingly, patients following...... recurrent trajectories of time-ordered co-morbidities had significantly increased sepsis mortality compared to those who did not follow a trajectory. We identified trajectories which significantly altered sepsis mortality, and found three major starting points in a combined temporal sepsis network: Alcohol...

  9. Predictive indications of operation and mortality following renal trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Shen Yang

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: In conclusion, ISS ≥ 16 and RIS ≥ 4 are predictive factors for necessitating an operation, and higher injury severity (ISS ≥ 16 and lower consciousness level (GCS < 8 scores are significantly associated with mortality after renal trauma.

  10. A Modified APACHE II Score for Predicting Mortality of Variceal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Modified APACHE II score is effective in predicting outcome of patients with variceal bleeding. Score of L 15 points and long ICU stay are associated with high mortality. Keywords: liver cirrhosis, periportal fibrosis, portal hypertension, schistosomiasis udan Journal of Medical Sciences Vol. 2 (2) 2007: pp. 105- ...

  11. Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a Moroccan medical intensive care unit. Jihane Belayachi, Mina El khayari, Tarek Dendane, Naoufel Madani, Khalid Abidi, Redouane Abouqal, Amine Ali Zeggwagh. Medical Intensive Care Unit, Ibn Sina University Hospital, Rabat, Morocco. Jihane Belayachi, MD.

  12. Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

    2010-01-01

    Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

  13. Predicting of mortality in patients with intracrani al hemorrhage: A review article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Rahmani

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Stroke is one of the important and common diseases, which can lead to permanent disability or even death to people. Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH is a type of stroke that is associated with high mortality despite improved diagnostic and treatment methods, as well as the mortality rate remains high. Methods: In the present review article, reputable internet databases since 2000 were analyzed. Studies that discussed the predicting mortality of ICH were included in this review. Results: For predicting the mortality rates in patients with primary ICH, physicians use several methods such as level of consciousness, bleeding volume and multiple rating systems. In this review, we introduce three scoring system of ICH in patients with ICH. Conclusion: Perhaps its cut-off point of these three score systems were different in different societies according to conditions and facilities therefore it is needed to review these scores and record their results in different societies.

  14. Patient length of stay and mortality prediction: A survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James

    2017-05-01

    Over the past few years, there has been increased interest in data mining and machine learning methods to improve hospital performance, in particular hospitals want to improve their intensive care unit statistics by reducing the number of patients dying inside the intensive care unit. Research has focused on prediction of measurable outcomes, including risk of complications, mortality and length of hospital stay. The length of stay is an important metric both for healthcare providers and patients, influenced by numerous factors. In particular, the length of stay in critical care is of great significance, both to patient experience and the cost of care, and is influenced by factors specific to the highly complex environment of the intensive care unit. The length of stay is often used as a surrogate for other outcomes, where those outcomes cannot be measured; for example as a surrogate for hospital or intensive care unit mortality. The length of stay is also a parameter, which has been used to identify the severity of illnesses and healthcare resource utilisation. This paper examines a range of length of stay and mortality prediction applications in acute medicine and the critical care unit. It also focuses on the methods of analysing length of stay and mortality prediction. Moreover, the paper provides a classification and evaluation for the analytical methods of the length of stay and mortality prediction associated with a grouping of relevant research papers published in the years 1984 to 2016 related to the domain of survival analysis. In addition, the paper highlights some of the gaps and challenges of the domain.

  15. Vitamin D status predicts 30 day mortality in hospitalised cats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Titmarsh

    Full Text Available Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD, has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OHD and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OHD, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OHD concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52 for cats with a serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OHD concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats.

  16. Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Cristina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; Gallus, Silvano; Chatenoud, Liliane; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2012-12-01

    Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2014-10-01

    Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. © 2014 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2014 International Society for Apheresis.

  18. Serum Irisin Predicts Mortality Risk in Acute Heart Failure Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shutong Shen

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Irisin is a peptide hormone cleaved from a plasma membrane protein fibronectin type III domain containing protein 5 (FNDC5. Emerging studies have indicated association between serum irisin and many major chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases. However, the role of serum irisin as a predictor for mortality risk in acute heart failure (AHF patients is not clear. Methods: AHF patients were enrolled and serum was collected at the admission and all patients were followed up for 1 year. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure serum irisin levels. To explore predictors for AHF mortality, the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and receiver-operator characteristic (ROC curve analysis were used. To determine the role of serum irisin levels in predicting survival, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used. Results: In this study, 161 AHF patients were enrolled and serum irisin level was found to be significantly higher in patients deceased in 1-year follow-up. The univariate logistic regression analysis identified 18 variables associated with all-cause mortality in AHF patients, while the multivariate logistic regression analysis identified 2 variables namely blood urea nitrogen and serum irisin. ROC curve analysis indicated that blood urea nitrogen and the most commonly used biomarker, NT-pro-BNP, displayed poor prognostic value for AHF (AUCs ≤ 0.700 compared to serum irisin (AUC = 0.753. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that AHF patients with higher serum irisin had significantly higher mortality (P<0.001. Conclusion: Collectively, our study identified serum irisin as a predictive biomarker for 1-year all-cause mortality in AHF patients though large multicenter studies are highly needed.

  19. Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-04-01

    To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Major

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS, which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. Aim : To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB. Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Results: Complications were observed in 30 (7.35% patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53–2.44, p = 0.744. The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091. Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800. Conclusions : It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  1. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yinan; Joyce, Brian T; Colicino, Elena; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wei; Dai, Qi; Shrubsole, Martha J; Kibbe, Warren A; Gao, Tao; Zhang, Zhou; Jafari, Nadereh; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Hou, Lifang

    2016-03-01

    Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages) can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3-5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02) and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.02). Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a 'J-shaped' manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  2. Classification of treatment-related mortality in children with cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, Sarah; Pole, Jason D; Gibson, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Treatment-related mortality is an important outcome in paediatric cancer clinical trials. An international group of experts in supportive care in paediatric cancer developed a consensus-based definition of treatment-related mortality and a cause-of-death attribution system. The reliability...... and validity of the system was tested in 30 deaths, which were independently assessed by two clinical research associates and two paediatric oncologists. We defined treatment-related mortality as death occurring in the absence of progressive cancer. Of the 30 reviewed deaths, the reliability of classification...

  3. Mortality risk prediction models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: current scenario and future direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammed N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Alramadan, Mohammed; Hossain, Mohammed N; Billah, Baki

    2017-12-01

    Many risk prediction models are currently in use for predicting short-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This review critically appraised the methods that were used for developing these models to assess their applicability in current practice setting as well as for the necessity of up-gradation. Medline via Ovid was searched for articles published between 1946 and 2016 and EMBASE via Ovid between 1974 and 2016 to identify risk prediction models for CABG. Article selection and data extraction was conducted using the CHARMS checklist for review of prediction model studies. Association between model development methods and model's discrimination was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U-test. A total of 53 risk prediction models for short-term mortality following CABG were identified. The review found a wide variation in development methodology of risk prediction models in the field. Ambiguous predictor and outcome definition, sub-optimum sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and inefficient predictor selection technique are major issues identified in the review. Quantitative synthesis in the review showed "missing value imputation" and "adopting machine learning algorithms" may result in better discrimination power of the models. There are aspects in current risk modeling, where there is room for improvement to reflect current clinical practice. Future risk modelling needs to adopt a standardized approach to defining both outcome and predictor variables, rational treatment of missing data and robust statistical techniques to enhance performance of the mortality risk prediction.

  4. Risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients on treatment at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Though it can effectively be treated, still a significant proportion of patients die on the course of their treatment. The objective of this study was to determine the outcome and risk factors of mortality among patients diagnosed with ...

  5. Predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality following endoscopic hemostasis in bleeding peptic ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bratanic, Andre; Puljiz, Zeljko; Ljubicicz, Neven; Caric, Tea; Jelicic, Ivo; Puljiz, Mario; Perko, Zdravko

    2013-01-01

    To identify predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy in patients with high risk peptic ulcers. Patients hospitalized due to bleeding from high-risk peptic ulcers (Forrest classes Ia, Ib, IIa and IIb) during a five-year study, received endoscopic hemostatic therapy (diluted epinephrine injection, clipping or both) in addition to proton pump inhibitors. We looked for clinical, endoscopic and laboratory parameters that had influenced rebleeding and mortality in these patients. Among all patients (804) with peptic ulcer bleeding, 251 high-risk ulcer pateints received endoscopic hemostasis treatment. Thirty-four of them (13.5%) experienced in-hospital rebleeding. Majority of these achieved permanent hemostasis after second endoscopic treatment, while 14 (5.6%) needed surgery. Eighteen patients died (7.2%). Among parameters studied, severe anaemia, systolic and diastolic hypotension, shock presence, low Rockall score, ulcer size and time to hemostasis were factors which predicted rebleeding. Mortality predictive factors were: severe anaemia, hypotension, shock presence, lower Rockall and physical status scores, ulcer size and Forrest class. Conclusions: Early assesment of clinical and endoscopic predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality in patients with high-risk peptic ulcer bleeding could provide optimal therapeutical measures and follow-up. It could further reduce rebleeding and mortality rates in these patients.-16 months vs. 59.5 months, IQR=37.5-68.5 months, p<0.001) and the rate of death was lower (16.7% [2/12] vs. 83.3% [5/6], p=0.006). Logistic regression showed that a shorter duration of endoscopic interval increased the rate of resectability of gastric cancer (p<0.001) and a higher rate of unresectable gastric cancer and longer duration of endoscopic interval increased death (p=0.029 and p=0.004, respectively). After treatment of esophageal cancer, endoscopic examination at 12-month intervals is important to lower the rate

  6. Predicting mortality in the intensive care unit: a comparison of the University Health Consortium expected probability of mortality and the Mortality Prediction Model III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipshutz, Angela K M; Feiner, John R; Grimes, Barbara; Gropper, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    Quality benchmarks are increasingly being used to compare the delivery of healthcare, and may affect reimbursement in the future. The University Health Consortium (UHC) expected probability of mortality (EPM) is one such quality benchmark. Although the UHC EPM is used to compare quality across UHC members, it has not been prospectively validated in the critically ill. We aimed to define the performance characteristics of the UHC EPM in the critically ill and compare its ability to predict mortality with the Mortality Prediction Model III (MPM-III). The first 100 consecutive adult patients discharged from the hospital (including deaths) each quarter from January 1, 2009 until September 30, 2011 that had an intensive care unit (ICU) stay were included. We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and overall performance, and compared the two models using Bland-Altman plots. Eight hundred ninety-one patients were included. Both the UHC EPM and the MPM-III had excellent performance (Brier score 0.05 and 0.06, respectively). The area under the curve was good for both models (UHC 0.90, MPM-III 0.87, p = 0.28). Goodness of fit was statistically significant for both models (UHC p = 0.002, MPM-III p = 0.0003), but improved with logit transformation (UHC p = 0.41; MPM-III p = 0.07). The Bland-Altman plot showed good agreement at extremes of mortality, but agreement diverged as mortality approached 50 %. The UHC EPM exhibited excellent overall performance, calibration, and discrimination, and performed similarly to the MPM-III. Correlation between the two models was poor due to divergence when mortality was maximally uncertain.

  7. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinan Zheng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3–5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02 and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.10 and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07–1.28. Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003 and mortality (P = 0.02. Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a ‘J-shaped’ manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  8. Mortality Prediction in Patients with Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis Suárez Quesada

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage is the deadliest, most disabling, and least treatable form of stroke. No therapy has proven to improve its outcome or reduce its mortality. Objective: to identify predictors of mortality in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods: a single cohort study was conducted involving 176 patients admitted consecutively to the stroke ward of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Provincial General Hospital with neuroimaging and clinical diagnosis of spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2013 to November 2015. Independent predictors were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. Results: seventy four point four percent of the patients were hypertensive. The median age among those who died was 67.45 ± 14.84 years. Forty three point eight percent of the patients under study died. Subjects with fatal outcome had lower score on the Glasgow Coma Scale (10.00 ± 3.47 vs. 14.00 ± 1.93, higher hematoma volume expressed in cubic centimeters (26.27 ± 36.86 vs. 6.19 ± 19.59, and displacement of the midline structures (2.00 ± 5.95 vs. 0.00 ± 4.49. The following predictors were identified: Glasgow score ≤ 10 points (Exp (B: 10.74; 95 % CI=4.69 to 24.59, hematoma volume ≥ 20 cm3 (Exp (B: 4.44; 95 % CI= 1.95 to 10.06, and pulse pressure ≥ 60 mmHg (Exp (B: 2.42, 95 % CI=1.10 to 5.33. The area under the ROC curve was 0.85. Conclusions: the Glasgow Coma Scale is the most significant independent variable to predict mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

  9. Diabetes is a strong predictor of mortality during tuberculosis treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faurholt-Jepsen, Daniel; Range, Nyagosya; Praygod, George Amani

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Strong evidence suggests diabetes may be associated with tuberculosis (TB) and could influence TB treatment outcomes. We assessed the role of diabetes on sputum culture conversion and mortality among patients undergoing TB treatment. METHODS: A total of 1250 Tanzanian TB patients were...

  10. Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: HRCT findings that predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edey, Anthony J.; Hansell, David M. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Devaraj, Anand A. [St. George' s NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Tooting (United Kingdom); Barker, Robert P. [Frimley Park Hosptal, Department of Radiology, Frimley, Surrey (United Kingdom); Nicholson, Andrew G. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Histopathology, London (United Kingdom); Wells, Athol U. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Interstitial Lung Disease Unit, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    The study aims were to identify CT features that predict outcome of fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) when information from lung biopsy data is unavailable. HRCTs of 146 consecutive patients presenting with fibrotic IIP were studied. Visual estimates were made of the extent of abnormal lung and proportional contribution of fine and coarse reticulation, microcystic (cysts {<=}4 mm) and macrocystic honeycombing. A score for severity of traction bronchiectasis was also assigned. Using death as our primary outcome measure, variables were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. CT features predictive of a worse outcome were coarse reticulation, microcystic and macrocystic honeycombing, as well as overall extent of lung abnormality (p < 0.001). Importantly, increased severity of traction bronchiectasis, corrected for extent of parenchymal abnormality, was predictive of poor prognosis regardless of the background pattern of abnormal lung (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). On bivariate Cox analysis microcystic honeycombing was a more powerful determinant of a poor prognosis than macrocystic honeycombing. In fibrotic IIPs we have shown that increasingly severe traction bronchiectasis is indicative of higher mortality irrespective of the HRCT pattern and extent of disease. Extent of microcystic honeycombing is a more powerful determinant of outcome than macrocystic honeycombing. (orig.)

  11. Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: HRCT findings that predict mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edey, Anthony J.; Hansell, David M.; Devaraj, Anand A.; Barker, Robert P.; Nicholson, Andrew G.; Wells, Athol U.

    2011-01-01

    The study aims were to identify CT features that predict outcome of fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) when information from lung biopsy data is unavailable. HRCTs of 146 consecutive patients presenting with fibrotic IIP were studied. Visual estimates were made of the extent of abnormal lung and proportional contribution of fine and coarse reticulation, microcystic (cysts ≤4 mm) and macrocystic honeycombing. A score for severity of traction bronchiectasis was also assigned. Using death as our primary outcome measure, variables were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. CT features predictive of a worse outcome were coarse reticulation, microcystic and macrocystic honeycombing, as well as overall extent of lung abnormality (p < 0.001). Importantly, increased severity of traction bronchiectasis, corrected for extent of parenchymal abnormality, was predictive of poor prognosis regardless of the background pattern of abnormal lung (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). On bivariate Cox analysis microcystic honeycombing was a more powerful determinant of a poor prognosis than macrocystic honeycombing. In fibrotic IIPs we have shown that increasingly severe traction bronchiectasis is indicative of higher mortality irrespective of the HRCT pattern and extent of disease. Extent of microcystic honeycombing is a more powerful determinant of outcome than macrocystic honeycombing. (orig.)

  12. Postoperative Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Mortality in Medullary Thyroid Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Allen S; Wang, Lu; Palmer, Frank L; Yu, Changhong; Toset, Arnbjorn; Patel, Snehal; Kattan, Michael W; Tuttle, R Michael; Ganly, Ian

    2015-08-01

    Medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) is a rare thyroid cancer accounting for 5 % of all thyroid malignancies. The purpose of our study was to design a predictive nomogram for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) utilizing clinical, pathological, and biochemical variables in patients with MTC. MTC patients managed entirely at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1986 and 2010 were identified. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were recorded, and variables predictive of CSM were identified by univariable analyses. A multivariable competing risk model was then built to predict the 10-year cancer specific mortality of MTC. All predictors of interest were added in the starting full model before selection, including age, gender, pre- and postoperative serum calcitonin, pre- and postoperative CEA, RET mutation status, perivascular invasion, margin status, pathologic T status, pathologic N status, and M status. Stepdown method was used in model selection to choose predictive variables. Of 249 MTC patients, 22.5 % (56/249) died from MTC, whereas 6.4 % (16/249) died secondary to other causes. Mean follow-up period was 87 ± 67 months. The seven variables with the highest predictive accuracy for cancer specific mortality included age, gender, postoperative calcitonin, perivascular invasion, pathologic T status, pathologic N status, and M status. These variables were used to create the final nomogram. Discrimination from the final nomogram was measured at 0.77 with appropriate calibration. We describe the first nomogram that estimates cause-specific mortality in individual patients with MTC. This predictive nomogram will facilitate patient counseling in terms of prognosis and subsequent clinical follow up.

  13. Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

    2015-08-01

    Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  15. Mortality risk prediction by application of pediatric risk of mortality scoring system in pediatric intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajeh, Ali; Noori, Noor Mohammad; Reisi, Mohsen; Fayyazi, Afshin; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Miri-Aliabad, Ghasem

    2013-10-01

    The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) score is one of the scores used by many pediatricians for prediction of the mortality risk in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Herein, we intend to evaluate the efficacy of PRISM score in prediction of mortality rate in PICU. In this cohort study, 221 children admitted during an 18-month period to PICU, were enrolled. PRISM score and mortality risk were calculated. Follow up was noted as death or discharge. Results were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve, ROC curve, Log Rank (Mantel-Cox), Logistic regression model using SPSS 15. Totally, 57% of the patients were males. Forty seven patients died during the study period. The PRISM score was 0-10 in 71%, 11-20 in 20.4% and 21-30 in 8.6%. PRISM score showed an increase of mortality from 10.2% in 0-10 score patients to 73.8% in 21-30 score ones. The survival time significantly decreased as PRISM score increased (P≤0.001). A 7.2 fold mortality risk was present in patients with score 21-30 compared with score 0-10. ROC curve analysis for mortality according to PRISM score showed an under curve area of 80.3%. PRISM score is a good predictor for evaluation of mortality risk in PICU.

  16. Recurrence and Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Soft Tissue ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The basis of this study was to establish patterns and factors affecting recurrence and mortality after surgical treatment at a national referral medical facility. Methods: A five and a half years retrospective study between January 2003 and June 2007 and a six months prospective follow-up arm between July 2008 and March ...

  17. The effects of deep network topology on mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao Du; Ghassemi, Mohammad M; Mengling Feng

    2016-08-01

    Deep learning has achieved remarkable results in the areas of computer vision, speech recognition, natural language processing and most recently, even playing Go. The application of deep-learning to problems in healthcare, however, has gained attention only in recent years, and it's ultimate place at the bedside remains a topic of skeptical discussion. While there is a growing academic interest in the application of Machine Learning (ML) techniques to clinical problems, many in the clinical community see little incentive to upgrade from simpler methods, such as logistic regression, to deep learning. Logistic regression, after all, provides odds ratios, p-values and confidence intervals that allow for ease of interpretation, while deep nets are often seen as `black-boxes' which are difficult to understand and, as of yet, have not demonstrated performance levels far exceeding their simpler counterparts. If deep learning is to ever take a place at the bedside, it will require studies which (1) showcase the performance of deep-learning methods relative to other approaches and (2) interpret the relationships between network structure, model performance, features and outcomes. We have chosen these two requirements as the goal of this study. In our investigation, we utilized a publicly available EMR dataset of over 32,000 intensive care unit patients and trained a Deep Belief Network (DBN) to predict patient mortality at discharge. Utilizing an evolutionary algorithm, we demonstrate automated topology selection for DBNs. We demonstrate that with the correct topology selection, DBNs can achieve better prediction performance compared to several bench-marking methods.

  18. Treatment-related mortality in relapsed childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oskarsson, Trausti; Söderhäll, Stefan; Arvidson, Johan

    2018-01-01

    . PROCEDURE: In this retrospective population-based study, we described the causes of death and estimated the risk for treatment-related mortality in patients with first relapse of childhood ALL in the Nordic Society of Paediatric Haematology and Oncology ALL-92 and ALL-2000 trials. RESULTS: Among the 483......BACKGROUND: Treatment of relapsed childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is particularly challenging due to the high treatment intensity needed to induce and sustain a second remission. To improve results, it is important to understand how treatment-related toxicity impacts survival...... to improve survival in relapsed childhood ALL....

  19. Serial evaluation of the SOFA score is reliable for predicting mortality in acute severe pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, Yu-San; Fang, Hsin-Yueh; Kuo, I-Ming; Lin, Yann-Sheng; Huang, Song-Fong; Yu, Ming-Chin

    2018-02-01

    Acute severe pancreatitis caused high mortality, and several scoring systems for predicting mortality are available. We evaluated the effectiveness of serial measurement of several scoring systems in patients with acute severe pancreatitis.We retrospectively obtained serial measurements of Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Assessment (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores of 159 patients with acute severe pancreatitis.The overall mortality rate was 20%, and early mortality (in the first 2 weeks) occurred in 10 (7.4%) patients, while late mortality occurred in 17 (12.6%).All scoring systems were reliable for predicting overall and intensive care unit mortality, while the SOFA score on day 7 presented the largest area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (0.858, SE 0.055). Changes in scores over time were evaluated for predicting the progression of organ failure, and the change in SOFA score on hospital day 7 or no interval change in SOFA score was associated with higher mortality rates.APACHE II and SOFA scores are both sensitive for predicting mortality in acute pancreatitis. The serial SOFA scores showed reliable for predicting mortality. Hospital day 7 is a reasonable time for SOFA score reassessment to predict late mortality in acute severe pancreatitis.

  20. Predicting mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men by characteristics related to sarcopenia and frailty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, C; Goemaere, S; De Buyser, S

    2018-01-01

    and bone mineral density scores were the most important predictors. INTRODUCTION: Machine learning principles were used to predict 5-year mortality and 3-year incident severe immobility in a population of older men by frailty and sarcopenia characteristics. METHODS: Using prospective data from 1997 on 264......There is an increasing awareness of sarcopenia in older people. We applied machine learning principles to predict mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men through sarcopenia and frailty characteristics. Mortality could be predicted with good accuracy. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D...... the most important predictors of immobility. Sarcopenia assessed by lean mass estimates was relevant to mortality prediction but not immobility prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Using advanced statistical models and a machine learning approach 5-year mortality can be predicted with good accuracy using a Bayesian...

  1. Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2007 and 2011 staging systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soriano, Joan B; Lamprecht, Bernd; Ramírez, Ana S

    2015-01-01

    collected individual data for 15 632 patients from 22 COPD cohorts from seven countries, totalling 70 184 person-years. Mean age of the patients was 63·9 years (SD 10·1); 10 751 (69%) were men. Based on FEV1 alone (GOLD 2007), 2424 (16%) patients had mild (I), 7142 (46%) moderate (II), 4346 (28%) severe...... power to be used clinically for risk classification at the individual level to predict total mortality for 3 years of follow-up and onwards. Increasing intensity of treatment of patients with COPD due to their GOLD 2011 reclassification is not known to improve health outcomes. Evidence-based thresholds...

  2. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  3. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy.......Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  4. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  5. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Wu

    Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

  6. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link......, as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...

  7. Monitoring of the newborn dog and prediction of neonatal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, Hanna; Grellet, Aurélien; Delebarre, Marine; Mariani, Claire; Feugier, Alexandre; Chastant-Maillard, Sylvie

    2017-08-01

    Despite the high neonatal mortality rate in puppies, pertinent criteria for health evaluation of the newborns are not defined. This study was thus designed to measure and to characterize factors of variation of six health parameters in dog neonates, and to evaluate their value as predictors of neonatal mortality. A total of 347 purebred puppies under identical conditions of housing and management were examined within the first 8h after birth and then at Day 1. The first health evaluation included Apgar score, weight, blood glucose, lactate and β-hydroxybutyrate concentration, rectal temperature and urine specific gravity (SG). The second evaluation at Day 1 included the same parameters, excluding Apgar score and weight. The mortality rate over the first 24h and over 21days of age was recorded. The early predictors of neonatal mortality in the dog were determined with generalized linear mixed models and receiver operating characteristic curves analyses. An Apgar score at or below 6 evaluated within the first 8h after birth was found associated with a higher risk of death during the first 24h. A reduced glucose concentration (≤92mg/dl) at Day 1 was found to be associated with higher mortality between 1 and 21days of age. Low-birth-weight puppies were characterized by both low viability (low Apgar score) and low blood glucose concentration, and thus were found indirectly at higher risk of neonatal mortality. This study promotes two low cost easy-to-use tests for health evaluation in puppies, i.e. Apgar scoring and blood glucose assay. Further investigation is necessary to establish if the strong relationship between blood glucose and neonatal survival reflects high energy requirements or other benefits from colostrum intake. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Using historical vital statistics to predict the distribution of under-five mortality by cause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Chalapati; Adair, Timothy; Kinfu, Yohannes

    2011-06-01

    Cause-specific mortality data is essential for planning intervention programs to reduce mortality in the under age five years population (under-five). However, there is a critical paucity of such information for most of the developing world, particularly where progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) has been slow. This paper presents a predictive cause of death model for under-five mortality based on historical vital statistics and discusses the utility of the model in generating information that could accelerate progress towards MDG 4. Over 1400 country years of vital statistics from 34 countries collected over a period of nearly a century were analyzed to develop relationships between levels of under-five mortality, related mortality ratios, and proportionate mortality from four cause groups: perinatal conditions; diarrhea and lower respiratory infections; congenital anomalies; and all other causes of death. A system of multiple equations with cross-equation parameter restrictions and correlated error terms was developed to predict proportionate mortality by cause based on given measures of under-five mortality. The strength of the predictive model was tested through internal and external cross-validation techniques. Modeled cause-specific mortality estimates for major regions in Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America are presented to illustrate its application across a range of under-five mortality rates. Consistent and plausible trends and relationships are observed from historical data. High mortality rates are associated with increased proportions of deaths from diarrhea and lower respiratory infections. Perinatal conditions assume importance as a proportionate cause at under-five mortality rates below 60 per 1000 live births. Internal and external validation confirms strength and consistency of the predictive model. Model application at regional level demonstrates heterogeneity and non-linearity in cause

  9. Cholecystokinin in plasma predicts cardiovascular mortality in elderly females

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens P.; Rehfeld, Jens F; Alehagen, Urban

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cholecystokinin (CCK) and gastrin are related gastrointestinal hormones with documented cardiovascular effects of exogenous administration. It is unknown whether measurement of endogenous CCK or gastrin in plasma contains information regarding cardiovascular mortality. METHODS...... observed a marked difference between the genders, where CCK concentrations in the 4th quartile were associated with a higher 5-year cardiovascular mortality in female patients (HR 8.99, 95% C.I.: 3.49-102.82, p=0.0007) compared to men (1.47, 95% C.I.: 0.7-3.3, p=0.35). In contrast, no significant...

  10. Nurses and physicians in a medical admission unit can accurately predict mortality of acutely admitted patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Hallas, Jesper; Knudsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There exist several risk stratification systems for predicting mortality of emergency patients. However, some are complex in clinical use and others have been developed using suboptimal methodology. The objective was to evaluate the capability of the staff at a medical admission unit...... (MAU) to use clinical intuition to predict in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients. METHODS: This is an observational prospective cohort study of adult patients (15 years or older) admitted to a MAU at a regional teaching hospital. The nursing staff and physicians predicted in...... admitted. The nursing staff assessed 2,404 admissions and predicted mortality in 1,820 (63.9%). AUROC was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.762-0.884) and calibration poor. Physicians assessed 738 admissions and predicted mortality in 734 (25.8% of all admissions). AUROC was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.657-0.864) and calibration poor...

  11. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... require updating these critical scoring systems. Considering the possibility of a superiority of one system to others, the present study aimed to compare the third generation scoring systems (APACHE IV and SAPS III) with the commonly used system; APACHE II in our critically ill patients. ICU mortality rates ...

  12. Smell Loss Predicts Mortality Risk Regardless of Dementia Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekström, Ingrid; Sjölund, Sara; Nordin, Steven; Nordin Adolfsson, Annelie; Adolfsson, Rolf; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Larsson, Maria; Olofsson, Jonas K

    2017-06-01

    To determine whether dementia could explain the association between poor olfactory performance and mortality risk within a decade-long follow-up period. Prospective cohort study. Betula Study, Umeå, Sweden. A population-based sample of adult participants without dementia at baseline aged 40 to 90 (N = 1,774). Olfactory performance using the Scandinavian Odor-Identification Test (SOIT) and self-reported olfactory function; several social, cognitive, and medical risk factors at baseline; and incident dementia during the following decade. Within the 10-year follow-up, 411 of 1,774 (23.2%) participants had died. In a Cox model, the association between higher SOIT score and lower mortality was significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74 per point interval, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-0.77, P < .001). The effect was attenuated, but remained significant, after controlling for age, sex, education, and health-related and cognitive variables (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). The association between SOIT score and mortality was retained after controlling for dementia conversion before death (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). Similar results were obtained for self-reported olfactory dysfunction. Poor odor identification and poor self-reported olfactory function are associated with greater likelihood of future mortality. Dementia does not attenuate the association between olfactory loss and mortality, suggesting that olfactory loss might mark deteriorating health, irrespective of dementia. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landman, Gijs W. D.; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Groeneveld, Geert H.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.

    Background: C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients

  14. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care: comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Idse H. E.; Hazelzet, Jan A.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; Verlaat, Carin W. M.; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B.; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A.; Jansen, Nicolaas J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2013-01-01

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement

  15. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care : comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Idse H. E.; Hazelzet, Jan A.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; Verlaat, Carin W. M.; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B.; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A.; Jansen, Nicolaas J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement

  16. Predictive Value of Carotid Distensibility Coefficient for Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Yuan

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC for cardiovascular (CV diseases and all-cause mortality.Arterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear.A meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed.Carotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06-1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects, 1.09 (1.01-1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects and 1.65 (1.15-2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects, respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively.Carotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases.

  17. Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumurthy, Harsha; Hayashi, Kami; Linnemayr, Sebastian; Vreeman, Rachel C; Levin, Irwin P; Bangsberg, David R; Brewer, Noel T

    2015-01-01

    Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals' intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously. HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants' time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%. Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25). High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.

  18. Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harsha Thirumurthy

    Full Text Available Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals' intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART has not been examined previously.HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants' time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS. Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%.Overall, 44% (96/220 of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50. MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25.High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.

  19. Acute aluminium phosphide poisoning: Can we predict mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashu Mathai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In India, acute aluminium phosphide poisoning (AAlPP is a serious health care problem. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of AAlPP and the predictors of mortality at the time of patients′ admission. We studied consecutive admissions of patients with AAlPP admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU between November 2004 and October 2006. We noted 38 parameters at admission to the hospital and the ICU and compared survivor and non-survivor groups. A total of 27 patients were enrolled comprising5 females and 22 males and the mean ingested dose of poison was 0.75 ± 0.745 grams. Hypotension was noted in 24 patients (89% at admission and electrocardiogram abnormalities were noted in 13 patients (48.1%. The mean pH on admission was 7.20 ± 0.14 and the mean bicarbonate concentration was 12.32 ± 5.45 mmol/ L. The mortality from AAlPP was 59.3%. We found the following factors to be associated with an increased risk of mortality: a serum creatinine concentration of more than 1.0 mg % (P = 0.01, pH value less than 7.2 (P = 0.014, serum bicarbonate value less than 15 mmol/L (P = 0.048, need for mechanical ventilation (P = 0.045, need for vasoactive drugs like dobutamine (P = 0.027 and nor adrenaline (P = 0.048 and a low APACHE II score at admission (P = 0.019. AAlPP causes high mortality primarily due to early haemodynamic failure and multi-organ dysfunction

  20. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  1. Heart rate variability predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in intensive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HRV), has shown promise in predicting clinically important outcomes in the critical care setting; however, there is debate concerning its utility. ... Keywords: APACHE II, autonomic nervous system, critical care, heart rate variability, mortality ...

  2. One- and 2-Year Mortality Prediction for Patients Starting Chronic Dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikko Haapio

    2017-11-01

    Discussion: Mortality prediction algorithms could be more widely implemented into management of ESRD patients. The presented models are practical with only a limited number of variables and fairly good performance.

  3. Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels

    2013-01-01

    Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

  4. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF 1 mice and beagles exposed to 60 Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

  5. Extravasation of contrast (Spot Sign) predicts in-hospital mortality in ruptured arteriovenous malformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zengpanpan; Ai, Xiaolin; Zheng, Jun; Hu, Xin; You, Chao; Andrew M, Faramand; Fang, Fang

    2017-10-09

    The spot sign is a highly specific and sensitive predictor of hematoma expansion in following primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Rare cases of the spot sign have been documented in patients with intracranial hemorrhage secondary to arteriovenous malformation (AVM). The purpose of this retrospective study is to assess the accuracy of spot sign in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ruptured AVM. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database was performed for patients who presented to West China Hospital with ICH secondary to AVM in the period between January 2009 and September 2016. Two radiologists blinded to the clinical data independently assessed the imaging data, including the presence of spot sign. Statistical analysis using univariate testing, multivariate logistic regression testing, and receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was performed. A total of 116 patients were included. Overall, 18.9% (22/116) of subjects had at least 1 spot sign detected by CT angiography, 7% (8/116) died in hospital, and 27% (31/116) of the patients had a poor outcome after 90 days. The spot sign had a sensitivity of 62.5% and specificity of 84.3% for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = .02, AUC 0.734). No correlation detected between the spot sign and 90-day outcomes under multiple logistic regression (p = .19). The spot sign is an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality. The presence of spot sign did not correlate with the 90 day outcomes in this patient cohort. The results of this report suggest that patients with ruptured AVM with demonstrated the spot sign on imaging must receive aggressive treatment early on due to the high risk of mortality.

  6. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    OpenAIRE

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually iden...

  7. Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change

  8. [Predictive value of four pediatric scores of critical illness and mortality on evaluating mortality risk in pediatric critical patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lidan; Huang, Huimin; Cheng, Yucai; Xu, Lingling; Huang, Xueqiong; Pei, Yuxin; Tang, Wen; Qin, Zhaoyuan

    2018-01-01

    To assess the performance of pediatric clinical illness score (PCIS), pediatric risk of mortality score III (PRISM III), pediatric logistic organ dysfunction score 2 (PELOD-2), and pediatric multiple organ dysfunction score (P-MODS) in predicting mortality in critically ill pediatric patients. The data of critically ill pediatric patients admitted to Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) of First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University from August 2012 to May 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The gender, age, basic diseases, the length of PICU stay were collected. The children were divided into survival group and non-survival group according to the clinical outcome during hospitalization. The variables of PCIS, PRISM III, PELOD-2, and P-MODS were collected and scored. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, the efficiency of PCIS, PRISM III, PELOD-2, and P-MODS for predicting death were evaluated by the area under ROC curve (AUC). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was used to evaluate the fitting degree of each scoring system to predict the mortality and the actual mortality. Of 461 critically ill children, 35 children were excluded because of serious data loss, hospital stay not exceeding 24 hours, and death within 8 hours after admission. Finally, a total of 426 pediatric patients were enrolled in this study. 355 pediatric patients were survived, while 71 were not survived during hospitalization, with the mortality of 16.7%. There was no significant difference in gender, age, underlying diseases or length of PICU stay between the two groups. PCIS score in non-survival group was significantly lower than that of survival group [80 (76, 88) vs. 86 (80, 92)], and PRISM III, PELOD-2 and P-MODS scores were significantly increased [PRISM III: 16 (13, 22) vs. 12 (10, 15), PELOD-2: 6 (5, 9) vs. 4 (2, 5), P-MODS: 6 (4, 9) vs. 3 (2, 6), all P < 0.01]. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUCs of PCIS, PRISM III, PELOD-2, and P-MODS for predicting

  9. Routinely analyzed leukocyte characteristics improve prediction of mortality after coronary angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijsberts, Crystel M; Ellenbroek, Guilielmus Hjm; Ten Berg, Maarten J; Huisman, Albert; van Solinge, Wouter W; Asselbergs, Folkert W; den Ruijter, Hester M; Pasterkamp, Gerard; de Kleijn, Dominique Pv; Hoefer, Imo E

    2016-07-01

    Inflammation and leukocyte infiltration are hallmarks of atherosclerosis. Clinically routine hematology analyzers mostly perform an entire differential blood count by default, irrespective of the requested parameter. We hypothesize that these normally unreported leukocyte characteristics associate with coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and can improve prediction of mortality in coronary angiography patients. We studied coronary angiography patients suspected of CAD (n = 1015) from the Utrecht Coronary Biobank cohort. Leukocyte characteristics were routinely assessed in blood drawn directly prior to angiography using an automated hematology analyzer and extracted from the Utrecht patient oriented database (UPOD) database. Patients were followed up for a median duration of 805 days, during which 65 patients died. We evaluated the association of leukocyte characteristics with synergy between PCI with taxus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score as a measure of CAD severity, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). In order to determine the improvement of risk prediction, we calculated continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Monocyte percentage showed strong independent predictive value for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44 (1.19-1.74), p leukocyte characteristics for all-cause mortality confirmed the improvement in mortality risk prediction. No significantly predictive leukocyte characteristics were found for MACEs. Readily available yet unreported leukocyte characteristics from routine hematology analyzers significantly improved prediction of mortality in coronary angiography patients on top of clinical characteristics. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  10. The Prediction of Drought-Related Tree Mortality in Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinning, S.; Jensen, J.; Lomas, M. R.; Schwartz, B.; Woodward, F. I.

    2013-12-01

    Drought-related tree die-off events at regional scales have been reported from all wooded continents and it has been suggested that their frequency may be increasing. The prediction of these drought-related die-off events from regional to global scales has been recognized as a critical need for the conservation of forest resources and improving the prediction of climate-vegetation interactions. However, there is no conceptual consensus on how to best approach the quantitative prediction of tree mortality. Current models use a variety of mechanisms to represent demographic events. Mortality is modeled to represent a number of different processes, including death by fire, wind throw, extreme temperatures, and self-thinning, and each vegetation model differs in the emphasis they place on specific mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models generally operate on the assumption of incremental vegetation shift due to changes in the carbon economy of plant functional types and proportional effects on recruitment, growth, competition and mortality, but this may not capture sudden and sweeping tree death caused by extreme weather conditions. We tested several different approaches to predicting tree mortality within the framework of the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. We applied the model to the state of Texas, USA, which in 2011 experienced extreme drought conditions, causing the death of an estimated 300 million trees statewide. We then compared predicted to actual mortality to determine which algorithms most accurately predicted geographical variation in tree mortality. We discuss implications regarding the ongoing debate on the causes of tree death.

  11. Lung Injury Prediction Score Is Useful in Predicting Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Mortality in Surgical Critical Care Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary M. Bauman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Lung injury prediction score (LIPS is valuable for early recognition of ventilated patients at high risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. This study analyzes the value of LIPS in predicting ARDS and mortality among ventilated surgical patients. Methods. IRB approved, prospective observational study including all ventilated patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit at a single tertiary center over 6 months. ARDS was defined using the Berlin criteria. LIPS were calculated for all patients and analyzed. Logistic regression models evaluated the ability of LIPS to predict development of ARDS and mortality. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve demonstrated the optimal LIPS value to statistically predict development of ARDS. Results. 268 ventilated patients were observed; 141 developed ARDS and 127 did not. The average LIPS for patients who developed ARDS was 8.8±2.8 versus 5.4±2.8 for those who did not (p<0.001. An ROC area under the curve of 0.79 demonstrates LIPS is statistically powerful for predicting ARDS development. Furthermore, for every 1-unit increase in LIPS, the odds of developing ARDS increase by 1.50 (p<0.001 and odds of ICU mortality increase by 1.22 (p<0.001. Conclusion. LIPS is reliable for predicting development of ARDS and predicting mortality in critically ill surgical patients.

  12. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...... was measured in plasma and serum. The Danish National Register of Patients was used to collect data on morbidity. The primary outcome in Cox regression analyses was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Women with low plasma BDNF (lowest tertile) had greater all-cause mortality risk than women with high plasma BDNF......-grade inflammation. No association was found between plasma BDNF and mortality in men, and serum BDNF did not influence mortality in either sex. CONCLUSION Low plasma BDNF is a novel, independent, and robust biomarker of mortality risk in old women. BDNF may be a central factor in the network of multimorbidity...

  13. O-POSSUM score predicts morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blay-Domínguez, Elena; Lajara-Marco, Francisco; Bernáldez-Silvetti, Pablo Federico; Veracruz-Gálvez, Eva María; Muela-Pérez, Beatriz; Palazón-Banegas, Miguel Ángel; Salinas-Gilabert, José Eduardo; Lozano-Requena, Juan Antonio

    2017-11-27

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the O-POSSUM score capacity to predict the morbidity and mortality of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of patients older than 65years old, operated on for hip fractures between January 2012 and December 2013. Of 229 patients, the mean age was 82.3years and 170 were women. We collected comorbidities, type of surgery, and expected morbidity and mortality O-POSSUM values. After a minimum follow up of one year, 38 deaths were reported and 77 patients had complications. The expected mortality according to the O-POSSUM was 35 patients and expected morbidity 132. By comparing the observed results with those predicted, the O-POSSUM scale is reliable in predicting mortality and overestimates morbidity. Copyright © 2017 SECOT. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. A novel mortality prediction model for the current population in an adult intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fika, Sofia; Nanas, Serafeim; Baltopoulos, Georgios; Charitidou, Efstratia; Myrianthefs, Pavlos

    The accurate and reliable mortality prediction is very useful, in critical care medicine. There are various new variables proposed in the literature that could potentially increase the predictive ability for death in ICU of the new predictive scoring model. To develop and validate a new intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction model, using data that are routinely collected during the first 24 h of ICU admission, and compare its performance to the most widely used conventional scoring systems. Prospective observational study in a medical/surgical, multidisciplinary ICU, using multivariate logistic regression modeling. The new model was developed using data from a medical record review of 400 adult intensive care unit patients and was validated on a separate sample of 36 patients, to accurately predict mortality in ICU. The new model is simple, flexible and shows improved performance (ROC AUC = 0.85, SMR = 1.25), compared to the conventional scoring models (APACHE II: AUC = 0.76, SMR = 2.50, SAPS III: AUC = 0.76, SMR = 1.50), as well as higher predictive capability regarding ICU mortality (predicted mortality: 41.63 ± 31.61, observed mortality: 41.67%). The newly developed model is a quite simple risk-adjusted outcome prediction tool based on 12 routinely collected demographic and clinical variables obtained from the medical record data. It appears to be a reliable predictor of ICU mortality and is proposed for further investigation aiming at its evaluation, validation and applicability to other ICUs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

    2017-12-01

    Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

  16. Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

    2015-08-01

    Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  17. A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

    2017-04-05

    Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = -7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr model demonstrated that a Ccr prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with

  18. External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-08-01

    Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

  19. Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisset, Julie; Vittinghoff, Eric; Elicker, Brett M; Hu, Xiaowen; Le, Stephanie; Ryu, Jay H; Jones, Kirk D; Haemel, Anna; Golden, Jeffrey A; Boin, Francesco; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; King, Talmadge E; Collard, Harold R; Lee, Joyce S

    2017-11-01

    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index. Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years. The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Diastolic myocardial dysfunction by tissue Doppler imaging predicts mortality in patients with cerebral infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming J; Jørgensen, Peter G; Møgelvang, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Several clinical prediction score models have been investigated for predicting mortality in patients with cerebral infarction. However, none of these include echocardiographic measures. Our objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) of the myocardium in patients...

  1. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosero-Bixby Luis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS. Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow, are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in

  2. COPART Risk Score Predicts Long-term Mortality in Peripheral Arterial Occlusive Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackl, G; Belaj, K; Gary, T; Rief, P; Deutschmann, H; Seinost, G; Brodmann, M; Hafner, F

    2015-07-01

    The COhorte de Patients ARTériopathes (COPART) Risk Score is a risk score assessing the 1 year outcome of patients who received inpatient treatment because of their peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD). The COPART Risk Score consists of six variables each of which is allocated a different number of points (age, history of myocardial infarction, C-reactive protein, ankle-brachial index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, medication with antiplatelet agents, statins and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors). 129 consecutive claudicants were included in a prospective trial with an average follow up of 8.8 (± 0.7) years. All patients were hospitalized for their first endovascular procedure to the pelvic and/or femoropopliteal arteries. The endpoints were all cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) death. The COPART Risk Score was calculated for the three patient cohorts (low risk: 52 patients [40.3%]; medium risk: 41 patients [31.8%]; high risk: 36 patients [27.9%]). During the follow up period 23.1% (n = 12) of patients in the low risk group, 34.1% (n = 14) of patients in the medium risk group, and 63.9% (n = 23) of patients in the high risk group died. CV death occurred in 11.5% in the low, 22.0% in the medium, and 41.7% in the high risk groups. The three groups differed significantly with regard to all cause and CV mortality (p < .0001 and p = .001). The COPART Risk Score is a suitable instrument to predict long-term all cause and CV mortality in claudicants preceding their first peripheral intervention. Copyright © 2015 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Mortality prediction using TRISS methodology in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J

    2016-10-01

    To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  4. Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, J

    2012-09-01

    Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

  5. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  6. Individualized prediction of mortality using multiple inflammatory markers in patients on dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hee-Yeon; Kim, Su Hee; Jang, Hye Min; Lee, Sukyung; Kim, Yon Su; Kang, Shin-Wook; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Choi, Ji-Young; Cho, Jang-Hee; Kim, Chan-Duck; Park, Sun-Hee; Kim, Yong-Lim

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate whether the combination of inflammatory markers could provide predictive powers for mortality in individual patients on dialysis and develop a predictive model for mortality according to dialysis modality. Data for inflammatory markers were obtained at the time of enrollment from 3,309 patients on dialysis from a prospective multicenter cohort. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to derive a prediction model of mortality and the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) was calculated to compare the predictive accuracy of the models. The incremental additions of albumin, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), white blood count (WBC), and ferritin to the conventional risk factors showed the highest predictive powers for all-cause mortality in the entire population (NRI, 21.0; IDI, 0.045) and patients on peritoneal dialysis (NRI, 25.7; IDI, 0.061). The addition of albumin and hsCRP to the conventional risk factors markedly increased predictive powers for all-cause mortality in HD patients (NRI, 19.0; IDI, 0.035). The prediction model for all-cause mortality using conventional risk factors and combination of inflammatory markers with highest NRI value (iAUC, 0.741; 95% CI, 0.722-0.761) was the most accurate in the entire population compared with a model including conventional risk factors alone (iAUC, 0.719; 95% CI, 0.700-0.738) or model including only significant conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers (iAUC, 0.734; 95% CI, 0.714-0.754). Using multiple inflammatory markers practically available in a clinic can provide higher predictive power for all-cause mortality in patients on dialysis. The predictive model for mortality based on combinations of inflammatory markers enables a stratified risk assessment. However, the optimal combination for the predictive model was different in each dialysis modality.

  7. Conscious status predicts mortality among patients with isolated traumatic brain injury in administrative data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsulaim, Hatim A; Smart, Blair J; Asemota, Anthony O; Haring, R Sterling; Canner, Joseph K; Efron, David T; Haut, Elliott R; Schneider, Eric B

    2017-08-01

    Outcome studies in trauma using administrative data traditionally employ anatomy-based definitions of injury severity; however, physiologic factors, including consciousness, may correlate with outcomes. We examined whether accounting for conscious status in administrative data improved mortality prediction among patients with moderate to severe TBI. Patients meeting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for TBI in the 2006 to 2011 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample were identified. Patients were dichotomized as having no/brief loss of consciousness (LOC) vs extended LOC greater than 1 hour using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) fifth digit modifiers. Receiver operating curves compared the ability of logistic regression to predict mortality in models that included LOC vs models that did not. Overall, 98,397 individuals met criteria, of whom 25.8% had extended LOC. In univariate analysis, AIS alone predicted mortality in 69.6% of patients (area under receiver operating characteristic curve .696, 95% CI .689 to .702), extended LOC alone predicted mortality in 76.8% (AUROC .768, 95% CI .764 to .773), and a combination of AIS and extended LOC predicted mortality in 82.6% of cases (AUROC .826, 95% CI .821 to .830). Similar differences were observed in best-fit models. Accounting for LOC along with anatomical measures of injury severity improves mortality prediction among patients with moderate/severe TBI in administrative datasets. Further work is warranted to determine whether other physiological measures may also improve prediction across a variety of injury types. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Factors Influencing the Predictive Power of Models for Predicting Mortality and/or Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2014-01-01

    The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure

  9. The predictive value of arterial and valvular calcification for mortality and cardiovascular events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoll, Rachel; Henein, Michael Y

    2014-06-01

    A review of the predictive ability of arterial and valvular calcification has shown an additive effect of calcification in more than 1 location in predicting mortality and coronary heart disease, with mitral annual calcification being a particularly strong predictor. In individual arteries and valves there is a clear association between calcification presence, extent and progression and future cardiovascular events and mortality in asymptomatic, symptomatic and high risk patients, although adjustment for calcification in other arterial beds generally renders associations non-significant. Furthermore, in acute coronary syndrome, culprit plaque is normally not calcified. This would tend to reduce the validity of calcification as a predictor and suggest that the association with cardiovascular events and mortality may not be causal. The association with stroke is less clear; carotid and intracranial artery calcification show little predictive ability, with symptomatic plaques tending to be uncalcified.

  10. Perceived Neighborhood Safety Better Predicts Risk of Mortality for Whites than Blacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-11-07

    The current study had two aims: (1) to investigate whether single-item measures of subjective evaluation of neighborhood (i.e., perceived neighborhood safety and quality) predict long-term risk of mortality and (2) to test whether these associations depend on race and gender. The data came from the Americans' Changing Lives Study (ACL), 1986-2011, a nationally representative longitudinal cohort of 3361 Black and White adults in the USA. The main predictors of interest were perceived neighborhood safety and perceived neighborhood quality, as measured in 1986 using single items and treated as dichotomous variables. Mortality due to all internal and external causes was the main outcome. Confounders included baseline age, socioeconomic status (education, income), health behaviors (smoking, drinking, and exercise), and health (chronic medical conditions, self-rated health, and depressive symptoms). Race and gender were focal effect modifiers. Cox proportional hazard models were ran in the pooled sample and stratified by race and gender. In the pooled sample, low perceived neighborhood safety and quality predicted increased risk of mortality due to all causes as well as internal causes, net of all covariates. Significant interaction was found between race and perceived neighborhood safety on all-cause mortality, indicating a stronger association for Whites compared to Blacks. Race did not interact with perceived neighborhood quality on mortality. Gender also did not interact with perceived neighborhood safety or quality on mortality. Perceived neighborhood safety and quality were not associated with mortality due to external causes. Findings suggest that single items are appropriate for the measurement of perceived neighborhood safety and quality. Our results also suggest that perceived neighborhood safety better predicts increased risk of mortality over the course of 25 years among Whites than Blacks.

  11. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care: comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Idse H E; Hazelzet, Jan A; Albers, Marcel J I J; Verlaat, Carin W M; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A; Jansen, Nicolaas J G; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2013-05-01

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement between predicted risks and observed mortality) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC). We considered performance in the overall study population and in subgroups, defined by diagnoses, age and urgency at admission, and length of stay (LoS) at the PICU. We analyzed data from consecutive patients younger than 16 years admitted to the eight PICUs in the Netherlands between February 2006 and October 2009. Patients referred to another ICU or deceased within 2 h after admission were excluded. A total of 12,040 admissions were included, with 412 deaths. Variants of PIM2 were best calibrated. All models discriminated well, also in patients predicted accurately in most (12 out of 14) categories. Discrimination was poorer for all models (AUC 6 days at the PICU. All models discriminated well, also in most subgroups including neonates, but had difficulties predicting mortality for patients >6 days at the PICU. In a western European setting both the PIM2(-ANZ06) or a recalibrated version of PRISM3-24 are suited for overall individualized risk prediction.

  12. Predicting Competing Mortality in Patients Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy Aged 70 yr or Older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehner, Michael; Koch, Rainer; Hübler, Matthias; Zastrow, Stefan; Wirth, Manfred P

    2017-05-01

    Estimating the risk of competing mortality is of importance in tailoring optimal individual management strategies in patients with early prostate cancer. Using proportional hazard models for competing risks, we determined which parameters predict competing mortality in patients selected for radical prostatectomy aged 70 yr or older and compared the prognostic impact of individual parameters with that of their younger counterparts. Three common diseases (diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease, and other cancer) that predicted competing mortality in younger men were not predictors of competing mortality in men selected for radical prostatectomy aged 70 yr or older (hazard ratio [HR]:mortality in patients aged 70 yr or older. Combining these five conditions in a score might provide a superior comorbidity measure in this particular population. Stricter selection may diminish the prognostic significance of several common diseases in men selected for radical prostatectomy aged 70 yr or older whereas other parameters (peripheral vascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status class 3, current smoking, and level of education) sustained their meaningfulness and should be taken into consideration when the risk of competing mortality is estimated. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk of mortality on and off methadone substitution treatment in primary care: a national cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Gráinne; Boland, Fiona; Courtney, Brenda; Barry, Joseph; Lyons, Suzi; Fahey, Tom

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether risk of death increases during periods of treatment transition, and investigate the impact of supervised methadone consumption on drug-related and all-cause mortality. National Irish cohort study. Primary care. A total of 6983 patients on a national methadone treatment register aged 16-65 years between 2004 and 2010. Drug-related (primary outcome) and all-cause (secondary outcome) mortality rates and rate ratios for periods on and off treatment; and the impact of regular supervised methadone consumption. Crude drug-related mortality rates were 0.24 per 100 person-years on treatment and 0.39 off treatment, adjusted mortality rate ratio 1.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.66-4.00]. Crude all-cause mortality rate per 100 person-years was 0.51 on treatment versus 1.57 off treatment, adjusted mortality rate ratio 3.64 (95% CI = 2.11-6.30). All-cause mortality off treatment was 6.36 (95% CI = 2.84-14.22) times higher in the first 2 weeks, 9.12 (95% CI = 3.17-26.28) times higher in weeks 3-4, compared with being 5 weeks or more in treatment. All-cause mortality was lower in those with regular supervision (crude mortality rate 0.60 versus 0.81 per 100 person-years) although, after adjustment, insufficient evidence exists to suggest that regular supervision is protective (mortality rate ratio = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.67-2.27). Among primary care patients undergoing methadone treatment, continuing in methadone treatment is associated with a reduced risk of death. Patients' risk of all-cause mortality increases following treatment cessation, and is highest in the initial 4-week period. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  14. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size......, and with estimates from a comprehensive compilation of empirical data on the natural mortality of marine fishes. The comparisons are all in aggreement with the predictions from the model. We conclude that natural mortality scales with body length raised to a power around -1.6, with the asymptotic length......For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...

  15. Collision prediction software for radiotherapy treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Padilla, Laura [Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center, Richmond, Virginia 23298 (United States); Pearson, Erik A. [Techna Institute and the Princess Margaret Cancer Center, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9 (Canada); Pelizzari, Charles A., E-mail: c-pelizzari@uchicago.edu [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (United States)

    2015-11-15

    Purpose: This work presents a method of collision predictions for external beam radiotherapy using surface imaging. The present methodology focuses on collision prediction during treatment simulation to evaluate the clearance of a patient’s treatment position and allow for its modification if necessary. Methods: A Kinect camera (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) is used to scan the patient and immobilization devices in the treatment position at the simulator. The surface is reconstructed using the SKANECT software (Occipital, Inc., San Francisco, CA). The treatment isocenter is marked using simulated orthogonal lasers projected on the surface scan. The point cloud of this surface is then shifted to isocenter and converted from Cartesian to cylindrical coordinates. A slab models the treatment couch. A cylinder with a radius equal to the normal distance from isocenter to the collimator plate, and a height defined by the collimator diameter is used to estimate collisions. Points within the cylinder clear through a full gantry rotation with the treatment couch at 0° , while points outside of it collide. The angles of collision are reported. This methodology was experimentally verified using a mannequin positioned in an alpha cradle with both arms up. A planning CT scan of the mannequin was performed, two isocenters were marked in PINNACLE, and this information was exported to AlignRT (VisionRT, London, UK)—a surface imaging system for patient positioning. This was used to ensure accurate positioning of the mannequin in the treatment room, when available. Collision calculations were performed for the two treatment isocenters and the results compared to the collisions detected the room. The accuracy of the Kinect-Skanect surface was evaluated by comparing it to the external surface of the planning CT scan. Results: Experimental verification results showed that the predicted angles of collision matched those recorded in the room within 0.5°, in most cases (largest deviation

  16. The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity score predicts mortality and morbidity after congenital heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

    2011-04-01

    The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) score has been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The score is the sum of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score, largely used but poorly related to mortality and morbidity, and of the Comprehensive Complexity items accounting for comorbidities and procedure-specific and anatomic variability. This study aims to demonstrate the ability of the ACC score to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity assessed by the length of the intensive care unit (ICU) stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery in our institution. We modeled the ACC score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of ICU stay as a censored variable. For each mortality and morbidity model we performed internal validation by bootstrapping and assessed overall performance by R(2), calibration by the calibration slope, and discrimination by the c index. Among all 1,454 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.4% and median length of ICU stay was 3 days. The ACC score strongly related to mortality, but related to length of ICU stay only during the first postoperative week. For the mortality model, R(2) = 0.24, calibration slope = 0.98, c index = 0.86, and 95% confidence interval was 0.82 to 0.91. For the morbidity model, R(2) = 0.094, calibration slope = 0.94, c index = 0.64, and 95% confidence interval was 0.62 to 0.66. The ACC score predicts 30-day mortality and length of ICU stay during the first postoperative week. The score is an adequate tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Applications of Machine learning in Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helal, N.; Sarwat, E.

    2012-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths for the female population in both developed and developing countries. In this work we have used the baseline descriptive data about the incidence (new cancer cases) of in situ breast cancer among Wisconsin females. The documented data were from the most recent 12-years period for which data are available. Wiscons in cancer incidence and mortality (deaths due to cancer) that occurred were also considered in this work. Artificial Neural network (ANN) have been successfully applied to problems in the prediction of the number of new cancer cases and mortality. Using artificial intelligence (AI) in this study, the numbers of new cancer cases and mortality that may occur are predicted.

  18. Predictive Value of Matrix Metalloproteinases and Their Inhibitors for Mortality in Septic Patients: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Gomez, Sergio; Burgos-Angulo, Gabriel; Niño-Vargas, Daniela Camila; Niño, María Eugenia; Cárdenas, María Eugenia; Chacón-Valenzuela, Estephania; McCosham, Diana Margarita; Peinado-Acevedo, Juan Sebastián; Lopez, M Marcos; Cunha, Fernando; Pazin-Filho, Antonio; Ilarraza, Ramses; Schulz, Richard; Torres-Dueñas, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Over 170 biomarkers are being investigated regarding their prognostic and diagnostic accuracy in sepsis in order to find new tools to reduce morbidity and mortality. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their inhibitors have been recently studied as promising new prognostic biomarkers in patients with sepsis. This study is aimed at determining the utility of several cutoff points of these biomarkers to predict mortality in patients with sepsis. A multicenter, prospective, analytic cohort study was performed in the metropolitan area of Bucaramanga, Colombia. A total of 289 patients with sepsis and septic shock were included. MMP-9, MMP-2, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP-1), TIMP-2, TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio, and TIMP-2/MMP-2 ratio were determined in blood samples. Value ranges were correlated with mortality to estimate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve. Sensitivity ranged from 33.3% (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 60.6% (TIMP-1) and specificity varied from 38.8% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio) to 58.5% (TIMP-1). As for predictive values, positive predictive value range was from 17.5% (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 70.4% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio), whereas negative predictive values were between 23.2% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio) and 80.9% (TIMP-1). Finally, area under the curve scores ranged from 0.31 (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 0.623 (TIMP-1). Although TIMP-1 showed higher sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, with a representative population sample, we conclude that none of the evaluated biomarkers had significant predictive value for mortality.

  19. Attentional bias predicts heroin relapse following treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marissen, Marlies A. E.; Franken, Ingmar H. A.; Waters, Andrew J.; Blanken, Peter; van den Brink, Wim; Hendriks, Vincent M.

    2006-01-01

    AIMS: Previous studies have shown that abstinent heroin addicts exhibit an attentional bias to heroin-related stimuli. It has been suggested that attentional bias may represent a vulnerability to relapse into drug use. In the present study, the predictive value of pre-treatment attentional bias on

  20. Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2012-04-01

    Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

  1. Predicting mortality and length-of-stay for neonatal admissions to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To predict neonatal mortality and length of stay (LOS) from readily available perinatal data for neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions in Southern African private hospitals. Methods: Retrospective observational study using perinatal data from a large multicentre sample. Fifteen participating NICU centres ...

  2. Prediction of growth and mortality of Oregon White Oak in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Gould; David D. Marshall; Constance A. Harrington

    2008-01-01

    We developed new equations to predict Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana Dougl. ex Hook.) development with ORGANON, a stand-development model that is widely used in the Pacific Northwest. Tree size, competitive status, crown ratio, and site productivity were statistically significant predictors of growth and mortality. Three scenarios were...

  3. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Johan E; Itenov, Theis Skovsgaard; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common and serious complication in patients requiring mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit. The aims of this study were to identify models used to predict mortality in VAP patients and to assess their prognostic accuracy. METHODS...

  4. Predictive factors for mortality in Fournier' gangrene: a series of 59 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Marín, Andrés; Turégano Fuentes, Fernando; Cuadrado Ayuso, Marta; Andueza Lillo, Juan Antonio; Cano Ballesteros, Juan Carlos; Pérez López, Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Fournier's gangrene (FG) is the necrotizing fasciitis of the perineum and genital area and presents a high mortality rate. The aim was to assess prognostic factors for mortality, create a new mortality predictive scale and compare it with previously published scales in patients diagnosed with FG in our Emergency Department. Retrospective analysis study between 1998 and 2012. Of the 59 patients, 44 survived (74%) (S) and 15 died (26%) (D). Significant differences were found in peripheral vasculopathy (S 5 [11%]; D 6 [40%]; P=.023), hemoglobin (S 13; D 11; P=.014), hematocrit (S 37; D 31.4; P=.009), white blood cells (S 17,400; D 23,800; P=.023), serum urea (S 58; D 102; PFournier's gangrene severity index score (FGSIS) (S 4; D 7; P=.002) and Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (UFGSI) (S 9; D 13; P=.004). Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, serum potassium and severe sepsis criteria, and a model was created with an area under the ROC curve of 0.850 (0.760-0.973), higher than FGSIS (0.746 [0.601-0.981]) and UFGSI (0.760 [0.617-0.904]). FG showed a high mortality rate. Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, potassium and severe sepsis criteria creating a predictive model that performed better than those previously described. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Does specialization of treatment influence mortality in eating disorders?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winkler, Laura Vad; Bilenberg, Niels; Hørder, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    Eating disorders (EDs) are psychiatric disorders associated with high morbidity and mortality. It is well established that patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) have an increased risk of premature death, whereas mortality data are lacking for the other EDs. This study aimed to establish mortality...... calculated with the confounding variables: body mass index (BMI), age at referral and diagnosis. In the latest cohort the SMR for AN was 2.89 vs 11.16 in the time before our specialization. SMR for bulimia nervosa (BN) and for eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS) in the latest cohort were 2...

  6. Outcome of nursing home-acquired pneumonia: derivation and application of a practical model to predict 30 day mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, B J; Mylotte, J M; Tayara, A

    2000-10-01

    To derive a prediction model of 30 day mortality for nursing home-acquired pneumonia (NHAP) based on factors that can be readily identified by nursing home staff at the time of diagnosis and to apply the model to management issues related to NHAP including clarifying the importance of prepneumonia functional status as a predictor of outcome of NHAP. This was a retrospective chart review of 378 episodes of NHAP treated in the nursing home or hospital during two periods: November 1997 to April 1998 and November 1998 to April 1999. Eleven nursing homes in the greater Buffalo, NY region. Nursing home residents with radiographically proven pneumonia who had at least one of the following signs/symptoms: cough, fever, purulent sputum, respiratory rate > or =25 breaths/minute, localized auscultatory findings, or pleuritic pain. Status (alive or dead) of each resident at 30 days (30 day mortality) after diagnosis of NHAP was the dependent variable. Factors predicting 30 day mortality were identified by logistic regression analysis. A scoring system was developed based on the results of the logistic model. Each episode of NHAP in the derivation cohort was scored using the model and the cohort was stratified by the model score into six categories or risk for mortality (0-5). The predictability of the model in the derivation cohort was measured using receiver operator characteristics curve analysis. Of 378 episodes of NHAP, 74% were treated initially in the nursing home and 26% were hospitalized initially for treatment. The overall 30 day mortality was 21.4%; however, the mortality rate was significantly higher for those treated initially in the hospital (29.6% vs 16.6%; P = .012). Logistic regression analysis identified four predictors of 30 day mortality: (1) respiratory rate >30 breaths/minute (2 points), (2) pulse > 125 beats/minute (1 point), (3) altered mental status (1 point), and (4) a history of dementia (1 point). Applying the scoring system to each episode in the

  7. The Effect of Donepezil Treatment on Cardiovascular Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Sato, K; Urbano, R; Yu, C; Yamasaki, F; Sato, T; Jordan, J; Robertson, D; Diedrich, A

    2010-01-01

    The acetylcholinesterase inhibitor donepezil hydrochloride improves cognitive function in patients with Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. Given acetylcholine’s important actions on the heart, we undertook a retrospective cohort investigation to assess whether donepezil usage affects cardiovascular mortality. In patients treated with donepezil, hazard ratios for total and cardiovascular mortality were 0.68 (P = 0.045, 95% confidence interval 0.46–0.99) and 0.54 (P = 0.042, 95% confide...

  8. Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

    2013-01-01

    the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action...... is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality....... It is critical to remain vigilant over transmission of drug-resistant HIV....

  9. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  10. Mortality in heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland 1994-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehm, Jürgen; Frick, Ulrich; Hartwig, Christina; Gutzwiller, Felix; Gschwend, Patrick; Uchtenhagen, Ambros

    2005-08-01

    A major goal of heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland has been to reduce the drug-related mortality of heroin users. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of deaths under treatment is essential. To assess mortality of participants in heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland over a 7-year period from 1994 to 2000, and to compare this mortality to the general population and to other populations of opioid users, as reported in the literature. Estimation of person years under heroin-assisted treatment from the complete case registry of heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland. Estimation of standardized mortality ratios comparing the population in treatment to the Swiss population (standardized to the year 2000). Over the 7-year period, the crude death rate of patients in heroin-assisted treatment, and including one month after discharge from treatment, was 1% per year. The standardized mortality ratio for the entire observation period was 9.7 (95% C.I. 7.3-12.8), with females having higher standardized mortality ratios (SMR 17.2) than males (SMR 8.4). There was no clear time trend. Mortality in heroin-assisted treatment was low compared to the mortality rate of Swiss opioid users 1990s (estimated to be between 2.5 and 3%). It was also low compared to mortality rates of opioid users in other maintenance treatments in other countries as reported in the literature. The SMR was also lower than that reported in the only meta-analysis in the literature: 13.2 (95% C.I. 12.3-14.1). The low mortality rate is all the more noteworthy as heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland included only refractory opioid addicts with existing severe somatic and/or mental problems. No conflicts of interest declared.

  11. Are scoring systems sufficient for predicting mortality due to sepsis in the emergency department?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merve Gunes Ozaydin

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Scoring systems have been used to risk stratify in intensive care units (ICU, but not routinely used in emergency departments. The aim of this study was to determine accuracy for predicting mortality in emergency medicine with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Mortality in ED Sepsis (MEDS score and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPSII. Methods: This is a prospective observational study. Patients presenting with evidence of sepsis were all included. SAPSII, MEDS, and SOFA scores were calculated. Analysis compared areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curves for 28-day mortality. Results: Two hundred patients were included; consisting of 31 (14.3% septic shock. 138 (69% severe sepsis and 31 (15.5% infection without organ dysfunction. 53 (26.5% patients died within 28 days.Area under the ROC curve for mortality was 0.76 for MEDS (0.69–0.82, 0.70 for SAPSII (0.62–0.78; and 1.68 for SOFA (0.60–0.76 scores. Pair wise comparison of AUC between MEDS, SAPSII, SOFA and Lactate were not significant. Conclusion: According to our results; SOFA, SAPSII and MEDS were not sufficient to predict mortality. Also this result, MEDS was better than other scoring system. Keywords: Sepsis, Septic shock, Scoring systems, SOFA, SAPSII, MEDS, Lactate, Emergency medicine

  12. Comparison of severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crowe Colleen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : New scoring systems, including the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS, the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS score, and the confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years and older (CURB-65 score, have been developed for emergency department (ED use in various patient populations. Increasing use of early goal directed therapy (EGDT for the emergent treatment of sepsis introduces a growing population of patients in which the accuracy of these scoring systems has not been widely examined. Objectives : To evaluate the ability of the REMS, MEDS score, and CURB-65 score to predict mortality in septic patients treated with modified EGDT. Materials and Methods : Secondary analysis of data from prospectively identified patients treated with modified EGDT in a large tertiary care suburban community hospital with over 85,000 ED visits annually and 700 inpatient beds, from May 2007 through May 2008. We included all patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, who were treated with our modified EGDT protocol. Our major outcome was in-hospital mortality. The performance of the scores was compared by area under the ROC curves (AUCs. Results : A total of 216 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were treated with modified EGDT during the study period. Overall mortality was 32.9%. Calculated AUCs were 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.67-0.81] for the MEDS score, 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69 for the REMS, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.51-0.67 for the CURB-65 score. Conclusion : We found that all three ED-based systems for scoring severity of illness had low to moderate predictive capability. The MEDS score demonstrated the largest AUC of the studied scoring systems for the outcome of mortality, although the CIs on point estimates of the AUC of the REMS and CURB-65 scores all overlap.

  13. Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, Samuel Henry; Caiado, Camila; McCollum, Charles; Goldstein, Michael; Malagon, Ignacio; Venkateswaran, Rajamiyer; Grant, Stuart William

    2018-01-09

     Several cardiac surgery risk prediction models based on postoperative data have been developed. However, unlike preoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models, postoperative models are rarely externally validated or utilized by clinicians. The objective of this study was to externally validate three postoperative risk prediction models for intensive care unit (ICU) mortality after cardiac surgery.  The logistic Cardiac Surgery Scores (logCASUS), Rapid Clinical Evaluation (RACE), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated over the first 7 postoperative days for consecutive adult cardiac surgery patients between January 2013 and May 2015. Model discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration plots, and observed to expected ratios. Recalibration of the models was performed.  A total of 2255 patients were included with an ICU mortality rate of 1.8%. Discrimination for all three models on each postoperative day was good with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of >0.8. Generally, RACE and logCASUS had better discrimination than SOFA. Calibration of the RACE score was better than logCASUS, but ratios of observed to expected mortality for both were generally prediction after cardiac surgery. If appropriately calibrated, postoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models have the potential to be useful tools after cardiac surgery. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  15. Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohk, Christina; Rau, Roland

    To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.

  16. Early hospital readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications predicts long-term mortality after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Caitlin W; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Craig-Schapiro, Rebecca; Valero, Vicente; Cameron, John L; Eckhauser, Frederic E; Hirose, Kenzo; Makary, Martin A; Pawlik, Timothy M; Ahuja, Nita; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of early (30-day) hospital readmission (EHR) on mortality after pancreatectomy. Using a prospectively collected institutional database linked with a statewide dataset, we evaluated the association between EHR and overall mortality in all patients undergoing pancreatectomy at our tertiary institution (2005 to 2010). Of 595 pancreatectomy patients, EHR occurred in 21.5%. Overall mortality was 29.4% (median follow-up 22.7 months). Patients with EHR had decreased survival compared with those who were not readmitted (P = .011). On multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline group differences, EHR for gastrointestinal-related complications was a significant independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.30, P = .001). In addition to known risk factors, 30-day readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications following pancreatectomy independently predicts increased mortality. Additional studies are necessary to identify surgical, medical, and social factors contributing to EHR, as well as interventions aimed at decreasing postpancreatectomy morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score Can Predict Mortality in Patients with Paraquat Intoxication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Cheng-Hao; Hu, Ching-Chih; Lin, Ja-Liang; Lin-Tan, Dan-Tzu; Huang, Wen-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Paraquat poisoning is characterized by multi-organ failure and pulmonary fibrosis with respiratory failure, resulting in high mortality and morbidity. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in cases of paraquat poisoning. Furthermore, we sought to determine the association between these parameters. Methods A total of 187 patients were referred for management of intentional paraquat ingestion between January 2000 and December 2010. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute kidney injury network (AKIN) scores were collected, and predictors of mortality were analyzed. Results Overall hospital mortality for the entire population was 54% (101/187). Using a multivariate logistic regression model, it was found that age, time to hospitalization, blood paraquat level, estimated glomerular filtration rate at admission (eGFR first day), and the SOFA48-h score, but not the AKIN48-h score, were significant predictors of mortality. For predicting the in-hospital mortality, SOFA48-h scores displayed a good area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.795±0.033, Pparaquat level, and this new score also demonstrated a better AUROC (0.848±0.029, Pparaquat poisoning. PMID:23272154

  18. Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

    2015-06-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

  19. NT-ProBNP Independently Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients Admitted for Coronary Angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Martin Huth; Goetze, Jens Peter; Bech, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Recently, research interests are focussed on biomarkers to predict the outcome in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined whether the levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) could predict outcome in patients who underwent elective or acute coronary angiogr......-proBNP is an independent predictor of ACM on long-term follow-up. N-terminal-proBNP is a reliable predictive marker of mortality in the setting of stable or unstable angina....

  20. Mortality Prediction in Patients Admitted in Surgical Intensive Care Unit by Using APACHE IV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetr, Wetwet Wetw; Shoukat, Hassan; Muhammad, Yar; Gondal, Khalid Masood; Aslam, Imran

    2016-11-01

    To predict the mortality by the mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score of all the patients admitted in a Surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and comparing the score of the survivors and non-survivors. Descriptive study. Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Mayo Hospital, Lahore, from June 2013 to November 2014. All adult patients admitted in the Surgical ICU were included in this study. The demographics and other data of the patients were recorded. The APACHE IV scores of all patients were calculated at the time of admission. The scores of the survivors and the non-survivors were compared for prediction of survival and mortality. The age of these patients ranged from 13 to 70 (mean 38.39) years with 86 (55.48%) males and 69 (44.52%) females. The mean APACHE IV score of these patients was 34.96 ±14.93 ranging from 11 to 63 years. Eighty-three (53.55%) patients survived and 72 (46.45%) died. With respect to gender, 41 (47.67%) males out of 86 and 31 (44.92%) females out of 69 did not survive. The mortality increased with an increase in APACHE IV score and all the patients with score more than 39 did not survive. The predicted mortality can be assessed by APACHE IV score, so it is good for application among the surgical ICU patients.

  1. Mortality Rate and Predictive Factors for Invasive Fungal Rhinosinusitis: Experience in Siriraj Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Premyot Ngaotepprutaram, M.D.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To elucidate the mortality rate and prognostic factors in patients with invasive fungal rhinosinusitis in Siriraj Hospital. Methods: Thirty-nine patients with a definitive diagnosis of invasive fungal rhinosinusitis were recruited from October 2003 to September 2014. The mortality rate was retrieved, and the impacts of underlying diseases, clinical presentation, disease extension, fungal types, antifungal drugs, and time to treatment were statistically analyzed. Results: The overall mortality rate was 23.1%. All patients except one were immunocompromised. Cranial nerve involvement was the most common symptom. The ethmoid sinus was the most commonly affected intranasal site (46.2%, and the majority of extranasal lesions were located in the orbit (17.9%. Most patients were affected by Aspergillus spp. (64.1%. Alteration of consciousness and periorbital pain were significant negative prognostic factors [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval, 10.37 (1.31–82.07 and 8.67 (1.30–57.88, respectively]. Other factors such as time to treatment, age, and central nervous system involvement had no effect on mortality. Conclusion: The mortality rate of invasive fungal rhinosinusitis in this study was 23.1%. Negative prognostic factors were alteration of consciousness and periorbital pain. Clinicians must have a high index of suspicion for invasive fungal rhinosinusitis, and aggressive treatment should be considered.

  2. Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

    2017-08-14

    Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

  3. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  4. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  5. Comparison of physician prediction with 2 prognostic scoring systems in predicting 2-year mortality after intensive care admission: a linked-data cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litton, Edward; Ho, Kwok M; Webb, Steven A R

    2012-08-01

    Patients who survive an episode of critical illness continue to experience significant mortality after hospital discharge. This study assessed the accuracy of physician prediction of 2-year mortality and compared it with 2 objective prognostic models. Sensitivity (probability of a prediction of death in patients who died within 2 years) and specificity (probability of a prediction of survival in patients who survived at least 2 years) of physicians' 2-year prediction were compared with those from 2 objective prognostic models, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Predicted Risk Existing Disease Intensive Care Therapy (PREDICT). Physician prediction of 2-year mortality was available for 2497 (94.8%) intensive care unit admissions. Specificity was high (85.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 83.7-86.4), but sensitivity (65.0%; 95% CI, 61.1-68.8) and positive predictive value (57.4%; 95% CI, 53.6-61.2) were relatively low, suggesting overpessimistic prediction of 2-year mortality. Age, Charlson comorbidity index, and APACHE score were independent risk factors for an inaccurate physician prediction. The diagnostic odds ratio for the physician predictions was at least comparable with the APACHE and PREDICT models, which both had very good discrimination of mortality at 2-year follow-up. Physicians tended to overpredict the risk of 2-year mortality of critically ill patients, but accuracy was comparable with 2 objective prognostic models. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. MR-proANP improves prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Søren; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H

    2015-01-01

    ANP is elevated in cardiovascular disease and predicts outcome in heart failure. However, knowledge of the prognostic value in acute myocardial infarction remains limited. METHODS: We prospectively included 680 patients with STEMI treated with primary-PCI, from September 2006 to December 2008. Blood samples were...... drawn immediately before PCI. Plasma MR-proANP was measured using an automated processing assay. Endpoints were all-cause mortality (n = 137) and the combined endpoint (n = 170) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as cardiovascular mortality and admission due to recurrent MI, ischaemic...... stroke or heart failure. RESULTS: During 5-year follow-up, MR-proANP was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and MACE (both p 

  7. SuPAR Predicts Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Patients With Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hodges, Gethin W.; Bang, Casper N; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    valve events (AVEs), cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and allocation to treatment. Results The multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) per unit log2 ng/mL increase in suPAR was HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.9; P...

  8. Nutritional Risk Index predicts mortality in hospitalized advanced heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adejumo, Oluwayemisi L; Koelling, Todd M; Hummel, Scott L

    2015-11-01

    Hospitalized advanced heart failure (HF) patients are at high risk for malnutrition and death. The Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) is a simple, well-validated tool for identifying patients at risk for nutrition-related complications. We hypothesized that, in advanced HF patients from the ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) trial, the NRI would improve risk discrimination for 6-month all-cause mortality. We analyzed the 160 ESCAPE index admission survivors with complete follow-up and NRI data, calculated as follows: NRI = (1.519 × discharge serum albumin [in g/dl]) + (41.7 × discharge weight [in kg] / ideal body weight [in kg]); as in previous studies, if discharge weight is greater than ideal body weight (IBW), this ratio was set to 1. The previously developed ESCAPE mortality model includes: age; 6-minute walk distance; cardiopulmonary resuscitation/mechanical ventilation; discharge β-blocker prescription and diuretic dose; and discharge serum sodium, blood urea nitrogen and brain natriuretic peptide levels. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling for the outcome of 6-month all-cause mortality. Thirty of 160 patients died within 6 months of hospital discharge. The median NRI was 96 (IQR 91 to 102), reflecting mild-to-moderate nutritional risk. The NRI independently predicted 6-month mortality, with adjusted HR 0.60 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.93, p = 0.02) per 10 units, and increased Harrell's c-index from 0.74 to 0.76 when added to the ESCAPE model. Body mass index and NRI at hospital admission did not predict 6-month mortality. The discharge NRI was most helpful in patients with high (≥ 20%) predicted mortality by the ESCAPE model, where observed 6-month mortality was 38% in patients with NRI NRI > 100 (p = 0.04). The NRI is a simple tool that can improve mortality risk stratification at hospital discharge in hospitalized patients with advanced HF. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landman, Gijs W D; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H; Bakker, Stephan J L; Groeneveld, Geert H; Bilo, Henk J G; van Hateren, Kornelis J J

    2016-07-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included primary care treated patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the ZODIAC cohort study. A total of 1005 out of 1688 patients (60%) had complete baseline variables. Baseline CRP, PCT and MR-proADM were assessed in relation to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality with Cox proportional hazard analyses. Hazard Ratios (HR) were adjusted for age, gender, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol-HDL ratio, duration of diabetes, HbA1c, history of cardiovascular diseases, albumin-creatinine ratio and creatinine. Risk prediction capabilities were assessed with Harrell's C statistics and proportion of explained variance (R(2)). After a median follow-up of 11 years, 472 (47%) of 1005 patients had died. The likelihood ratio test showed that CRP and MR-proADM significantly improved prediction in cardiovascular mortality [HRs 1.20 (95%CI 1.09-1.33) and 1.56 (95%CI 1.06-2.30)] and in all-cause mortality [HRs 1.10 (95%CI: 1.03-1.18) and 1.31 (95%CI 1.02-1.69)]. Harrell's C values and R(2) measures showed slightly improved discrimination for cardiovascular mortality in patients without macrovascular disease (C: 0.80 to 0.81; R(2): 0.50 to 0.52) and MR-proADM (C: 0.80 to 0.82; R(2): 0.50 to 0.52). CRP and MR-proADM, but not PCT, were independently associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. In patients without macrovascular diseases, CRP and MR-proADM slightly improved discrimination, in absolute sense, of patients at risk for cardiovascular mortality. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  10. Simplified model for end-stage liver disease score predicts mortality for tricuspid valve surgery†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, Kazumasa; Koide, Masaaki; Kunii, Yoshifumi; Watanabe, Kazumasa; Miyairi, Satoshi; Ohashi, Yuko; Harada, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD = 3.8*LN[total bilirubin] + 9.6*LN[creatinine] + 11.2*[PT-INR] + 6.4) predicts mortality for tricuspid valve surgery. However, the MELD is problematic in patients undergoing warfarin therapy, as warfarin affects the international normalized ratio (INR). This study aimed to determine whether a simplified MELD score that does not require the INR for calculation could predict mortality for patients undergoing tricuspid valve surgery. Simplified MELD METHODS A total of 172 patients (male: 66, female: 106; mean age, 63.8 ± 10.3 years) who underwent tricuspid replacement (n = 18) or repair (n = 154) from January 1991 to July 2011 at a single centre were included. Of them, 168 patients in whom the simplified MELD score could be calculated were retrospectively analysed. The relationship between in-hospital mortality and perioperative variables was assessed by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The rate of in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. The mean admission simplified MELD score for the patients who died was significantly higher than for those surviving beyond discharge (11.3 ± 4.1 vs 5.8 ± 4.0; P = 0.001). By multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality included higher simplified MELD score (P = 0.001) and tricuspid valve replacement (P = 0.023). In-hospital mortality and morbidity increased along with increasing simplified MELD score. Scores 14 were associated with mortalities of 0, 2.0, 8.3 and 66.7%, respectively. The incidence of serious complications (multiple organ failure, P = 0.005; prolonged ventilation, P = 0.01; need for haemodialysis; P = 0.002) was also significantly higher in patients with simplified MELD score ≥7. CONCLUSIONS The simplified MELD score predicts mortality in patients undergoing tricuspid valve surgery. This model requires only total bilirubin and creatinine and is therefore applicable in patients undergoing warfarin therapy. PMID:23403770

  11. Progress towards predicting 1-year mortality in older people living in residential long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heppenstall, Claire Patricia; Broad, Joanna B; Boyd, Michal; Gott, Merryn; Connolly, Martin J

    2015-05-01

    frail older people living in residential long-term care (LTC) have limited life expectancy. Identifying those with poor prognosis may improve management and facilitate transition to a palliative approach to care. to develop methods for predicting mortality in LTC. a population-based cohort study. LTC facilities, Auckland, New Zealand. five hundred randomly selected older people in a census-type survey of those living in LTC in 2008. mortality data were obtained from New Zealand Ministry of Health. Two methods for assessing mortality risk were developed using demographic, functional and health service information: (i) two geriatricians blinded to identifying data and to mortality, independently reviewed survey, medications and pre-survey hospitalisations data, and grouped residents according to perceived risk of death within 12 months; (ii) multivariate logistic regression model used the same survey and medication items as the geriatricians. for the geriatricians' assessment, each quintile of perceived risk was associated with a significant increase in mortality (P night attention, all variables which are easily available from LTC records. AUC for the model was 0.70, but when validated against the entire OPAL cohort, it was 0.65. When either or both geriatrician and the model together predicted high risk of death, 1-year mortality was >50%. two methods with the potential to identify older people with limited prognosis are described. Use of these methods allowed identification of over half of those who died within 12 months. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. [Value of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in predicting mortality of elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuran; Zhang, Zheng; Yu, Qing; Yuan, Weijie

    2015-12-08

    To explore the reliability of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) as a mortality predictor in elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). A total of 125 maintenance HD patients aged >60 years old who had received dialysis for over 6 months before entry was retrospectively examined. The values of GNRI were calculated, and death was taken as the end point. The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the quartiles of GNRI values. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and cox proportional-hazards analyses, and ROC curve was adopted for analyzing the predicting value of GNRI on mortality. The GNRI of the four groups were ≤92.06, 92.07-96.15, 96.16-101.25, ≥101.26, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival rate was significantly different among 4 groups for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Cox regression model analysis demonstrated that the GNRI was a predictor for all cause (HR=0.940, P=0.001, 95%CI: 0.907-0.974) and cardiovascular mortality (HR=0.906, Pmaintainance HD patients, but more multi-center studies with larger samples are still needed.

  13. Serum anion gap is predictive of mortality in an elderly population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Shin Young; Ryu, Jiwon; Baek, Seon Ha; Han, Ji Won; Lee, Jang Han; Ahn, Soyeon; Kim, Kwang-il; Chin, Ho Jun; Na, Ki Young; Chae, Dong-Wan; Kim, Ki Woong; Kim, Sejoong

    2014-02-01

    An elevated serum anion gap is known to be associated with hypertension, low cardiorespiratory fitness, and decreased renal function. We evaluated whether serum AG might be predictive of elderly mortality in a community-based cohort in Korea. We analyzed the available data from 862 elderly people in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging. Over a 5-year observational period, 151/862 (17.5%) participants died, and a high albumin-adjusted anion gap (SAAG) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in unadjusted analyses (hazard ratio [HR], 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-2.71) and fully adjusted analyses (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.24-2.52), compared with a low SAAG group. The population attributable fraction of death due to high SAAG was 38.2% (95% CI 20.7-58.2%). In particular, the participants with high SAAG had higher cardiovascular and infection-related mortality rates than those with low SAAG (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.06-4.19, and HR, 9.69; 95% CI, 1.12-83.4, respectively). High SAAG may be an independent predictor of mortality and is associated with higher cardiovascular and infection related mortality in the elderly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Carrara

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  15. Changes in Albuminuria Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Vascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Johannes F. E.; Schumacher, Helmut; Gao, Peggy; Mancia, Giuseppe; Weber, Michael A.; McQueen, Matthew; Koon, Teo; Yusuf, Salim

    2011-01-01

    The degree of albuminuria predicts cardiovascular and renal outcomes, but it is not known whether changes in albuminuria also predict similar outcomes. In two multicenter, multinational, prospective observational studies, a central laboratory measured albuminuria in 23,480 patients with vascular disease or high-risk diabetes. We quantified the association between a greater than or equal to twofold change in albuminuria in spot urine from baseline to 2 years and the incidence of cardiovascular and renal outcomes and all-cause mortality during the subsequent 32 months. A greater than or equal to twofold increase in albuminuria from baseline to 2 years, observed in 28%, associated with nearly 50% higher mortality (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.66), and a greater than or equal to twofold decrease in albuminuria, observed in 21%, associated with 15% lower mortality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98) compared with those with lesser changes in albuminuria, after adjustment for baseline albuminuria, BP, and other potential confounders. Increases in albuminuria also significantly associated with cardiovascular death, composite cardiovascular outcomes (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure), and renal outcomes including dialysis or doubling of serum creatinine (adjusted HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.78). In conclusion, in patients with vascular disease, changes in albuminuria predict mortality and cardiovascular and renal outcomes, independent of baseline albuminuria. This suggests that monitoring albuminuria is a useful strategy to help predict cardiovascular risk. PMID:21719791

  16. Predictive Value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Mortality in a Contemporary Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jentzer, Jacob C; Bennett, Courtney; Wiley, Brandon M; Murphree, Dennis H; Keegan, Mark T; Gajic, Ognjen; Wright, R Scott; Barsness, Gregory W

    2018-03-10

    Optimal methods of mortality risk stratification in patients in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) remain uncertain. We evaluated the ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to predict mortality in a large cohort of unselected patients in the CICU. Adult patients admitted to the CICU from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2015, at a single tertiary care hospital were retrospectively reviewed. SOFA scores were calculated daily, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-III and APACHE-IV scores were calculated on CICU day 1. Discrimination of hospital mortality was assessed using area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values. We included 9961 patients, with a mean age of 67.5±15.2 years; all-cause hospital mortality was 9.0%. Day 1 SOFA score predicted hospital mortality, with an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve value of 0.83; area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values were similar for the APACHE-III score, and APACHE-IV predicted mortality ( P >0.05). Mean and maximum SOFA scores over multiple CICU days had greater discrimination for hospital mortality ( P predicted higher long-term mortality ( P prediction of long-term mortality. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  17. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-11-15

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  18. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  19. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  20. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold; Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela; Helmer, Hanns; Brugger, Peter C.

    2011-01-01

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  1. Predicting central line-associated bloodstream infections and mortality using supervised machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parreco, Joshua P; Hidalgo, Antonio E; Badilla, Alejandro D; Ilyas, Omar; Rattan, Rishi

    2018-02-21

    The purpose of this study was to compare machine learning techniques for predicting central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI). The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database was queried for all ICU admissions. The variables included six different severities of illness scores calculated on the first day of ICU admission with their components and comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality, central line placement, and CLABSI. Predictive models were created for these outcomes using classifiers with different algorithms: logistic regression, gradient boosted trees, and deep learning. There were 57,786 total hospital admissions and the mortality rate was 10.1%. There were 38.4% patients with a central line and the rate of CLABSI was 1.5%. The classifiers using deep learning performed with the highest AUC for mortality, 0.885±0.010 (p<0.01) and central line placement, 0.816±0.006 (p<0.01). The classifier using logistic regression for predicting CLABSI performed with an AUC of 0.722±0.048 (p<0.01). This study demonstrates models for identifying patients who will develop CLABSI. Early identification of these patients has implications for quality, cost, and outcome improvements. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

    2018-03-01

    Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

  3. Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Richard Dapp

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

  4. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health......, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. METHODS: Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability......, and household income. CONCLUSION: Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age....

  5. The gamma gap predicts 4-year all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Xie, Linlin; Liu, Xiu; Hao, Qiukui; Jiang, Jiaojiao; Dong, Birong

    2018-01-18

    Recent studies have revealed the prognostic role of the gamma gap, the total serum proteins concentration minus the albumin concentration, for predicting all-cause mortality among adults. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the gamma gap and all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians via a secondary data analysis of a prospective observational study. The analysis included 801 participants (260 men and 541 women, mean age: 93.7 ± 3.5 years), 46 of which were lost at the 4-year follow-up. The mean gamma gap was 2.7 ± 0.5 g/dl. After adjusting for relevant confounders, the gamma gap was significantly associated with 4-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD = 1.22, 95% confidential interval [CI]: 1.12-1.78). Using different cut-off points, the elevated gamma gap could be defined as ≥2.9, 3.0, 3.1, or 3.2 g/dl. The relevant HRs and 95% CIs of the elevated gamma gap for predicting mortality were 1.27 (1.12-1.90), 1.29 (1.03-1.78), 1.21 (1.23-1.66), and 1.26 (1.09-1.69), respectively. In conclusion, the gamma gap is an independent prognostic factor for long-term mortality in nonagenarians and centenarians. A value greater than or equal to 3.1 g/dl may define an elevated gamma gap, but further studies are required.

  6. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Pereira de Araujo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1 or positive (G2 for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%. During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016. The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022 and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

  7. Cardiac Biomarkers Predict 1-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hip Fracture Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsanos, Spyridon; Mavrogenis, Andreas F; Kafkas, Nikolaos; Sardu, Celestino; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Katsanou, Panagiota; Farmakis, Dimitrios; Parissis, John

    2017-05-01

    This prospective study included 152 elderly patients (mean age, 80 years; range, 72-88 years) with a hip fracture treated surgically. Comorbidities were evaluated, and B-type natriuretic peptide was measured at baseline and at postoperative days 4 and 5 in addition to troponin I. Major cardiac events were recorded, and 1-year mortality was assessed. Comorbidity models with the important multivariate predictors of 1-year mortality were analyzed. Overall, 9 patients (6%) experienced major cardiac events postoperatively during their hospitalization. Three patients (2%) died postoperatively, at days 5, 7, and 10, from autopsy-confirmed myocardial infarction. Three patients (2%) experienced a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 3 patients (2%) experienced acute heart failure. At 1-year follow-up, 37 patients (24%) had died. Age older than 80 years (P=.000), renal failure (P=.016), cardiovascular disease (P=.003), respiratory disease (P=.010), Parkinson disease (P=.024), and dementia (P=.000) were univariate predictors of 1-year mortality. However, in the multivariate model, only age older than 80 years (P=.000) and dementia (P=.024) were important predictors of 1-year mortality. In all comorbidity models, age older than 80 years and dementia were important predictors of 1-year mortality. Postoperative increase in B-type natriuretic peptide was the most important predictor of 1-year mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a threshold of 90 ng/mL of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (area under the curve=0.773, 95% confidence interval, 0.691-0.855, Pmortality. Similarly, a threshold of 190 ng/mL of postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (area under the curve=0.753, 95% confidence interval, 0.662-0.844, P<.001) had 70% sensitivity and 77% specificity to predict the study endpoint. [Orthopedics. 2017; 40(3):e417-e424.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  8. Neoadjuvant twice daily chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer: Treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Samuels, MD, PhD

    2017-07-01

    Conclusion: Neoadjuvant twice-daily chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is a safe and effective alternative to daily fractionation with low treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes similar to standard fractionation courses.

  9. Cancer mortality following radium treatment for uterine bleeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inskip, P.D.; Monson, R.R.; Wagoner, J.K.; Stovall, M.; Davis, F.G.; Kleinerman, R.A.; Boice, J.D. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Cancer mortality in relation to radiation dose was evaluated among 4153 women treated with intrauterine radium (226Ra) capsules for benign gynecologic bleeding disorders between 1925 and 1965. Average follow up was 26.5 years (maximum = 59.9 years). Overall, 2763 deaths were observed versus 2687 expected based on U.S. mortality rates [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.03]. Deaths due to cancer, however, were increased (SMR = 1.30), especially cancers of organs close to the radiation source. For organs receiving greater than 5 Gy, excess mortality of 100 to 110% was noted for cancers of the uterus and bladder 10 or more years following irradiation, while a deficit was seen for cancer of the cervix, one of the few malignancies not previously shown to be caused by ionizing radiation. Part of the excess of uterine cancer, however, may have been due to the underlying gynecologic disorders being treated. Among cancers of organs receiving average or local doses of 1 to 4 Gy, excesses of 30 to 100% were found for leukemia and cancers of the colon and genital organs other than uterus; no excess was seen for rectal or bone cancer. Among organs typically receiving 0.1 to 0.3 Gy, a deficit was recorded for cancers of the liver, gall bladder, and bile ducts combined, death due to stomach cancer occurred at close to the expected rate, a 30% excess was noted for kidney cancer (based on eight deaths), and there was a 60% excess of pancreatic cancer among 10-year survivors, but little evidence of dose-response. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Gray were 0.006 for uterus, 0.4 for other genital organs, 0.5 for colon, 0.2 for bladder, and 1.9 for leukemia. Contrary to findings for other populations treated by pelvic irradiation, a deficit of breast cancer was not observed (SMR = 1.0). Dose to the ovaries may have been insufficient to protect against breast cancer

  10. Understanding Treatment Disconnect and Mortality Trends in Renal Cell Carcinoma Using Tumor Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaldone, Marc C; Egleston, Brian; Hollingsworth, John M; Hollenbeck, Brent K; Miller, David C; Morgan, Todd M; Kim, Simon P; Malhotra, Aseem; Handorf, Elizabeth; Wong, Yu-Ning; Uzzo, Robert G; Kutikov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The paradoxical rise in overall and cancer-specific mortality despite increased detection and treatment of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is termed "treatment disconnect." We reassess this phenomenon by evaluating impact of missing data and rising incidence on mortality trends. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, we identified patients with RCC diagnosis from 1973 to 2011. We estimated mortality rates by tumor size after accounting for lags from diagnosis to death using multiple imputations for missing data from 1983. Mortality rates were estimated irrespective of tumor size after adjustment for prior cumulative incidence using ridge regression. A total of 78,891 patients met inclusion criteria. Of 70,212 patients diagnosed since 1983, 10.4% had missing data. Significant attenuation in cancer-specific mortality was noted from 1983 to 2011 when comparing observed with imputed rates: Δobs0.05 versus Δimp0.10 (P=0.001, 7 cm tumors). Holding incidence of RCC constant to 2011 rates, temporal increase in overall mortality for all patients was attenuated (Pmortality trends. These findings were supported by assessment of mortality to incidence ratio trends. Missing data and rising incidence may contribute substantially to the "treatment disconnect" phenomenon when examining mortality rates in RCC using tumor registry data. Caution is advised when basing clinical and policy decisions on these data.

  11. Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M.; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

    2008-01-01

    Background Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. Methods A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39–54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee-Hostility-Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility), and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck-Personality- Stress-Inventory that assesses six personality types (cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social). The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. Results In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and causespecific mortality were predicted by “total hostility”, its “neurotic hostility” component as well as by “CHD-prone”, “ambivalent” “antisocial”, and “healthy” personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high “neurotic hostility” remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes (RII=2.62; 95% CI=1.68–4.09) and external causes (RII=3.24; 95% CI=1.03–10.18). “CHD-prone” (RII=2.23; 95% CI=0.72– 6.95) and “anti-social” (RII=2.13; 95% CI 0.61–6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but confidence intervals were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Conclusions Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and antisocial personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these

  12. Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients Fatores preditivos de mortalidade em queimaduras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Lessa Soares de Macedo

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.As estatísticas de mortalidade em queimaduras podem ser incompletas se não levarem em consideração vários fatores que podem influenciar o óbito. Tradicionalmente, apenas a extensão da queimadura e a idade do paciente têm sido usadas como preditores de mortalidade em vítimas de queimaduras. Estas estimativas são úteis na assistência aos pacientes, interferindo em decisões médicas e financeiras no cuidado desses doentes. O objetivo desse estudo foi definir os preditores clínicos, microbiológicos e laboratoriais de mortalidade em pacientes queimados. Os autores realizaram uma análise univariada e multivariada de várias variáveis independentes para determinar os fatores preditivos de mortalidade em queimados. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 5,0%. A idade mais avançada, a extensão das queimaduras, a

  13. The predictive value of malnutrition - inflammation score on 1-year mortality in Turkish maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Ekrem; Sahutoglu, Tuncay; Ahbap, Elbis; Sakaci, Tamer; Koc, Yener; Basturk, Taner; Sevinc, Mustafa; Akgol, Cuneyt; Unsal, Abdulkadir

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) on short-term mortality and to identify the best cut-off point in the Turkish maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) population. A total of 100 patients on MHD were included in this prospective single-center study. Demographic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were obtained from all patients. The study population was followed up as a 12-month prospective cohort to evaluate mortality as the primary outcome. Median (IQR) age and HD vintage of 100 patients (M/F: 52/48) were 53 (39.5 - 67) years and 53.5 (11 - 104.7) months, respectively. Deceased patients (n = 7) had significantly older age (years) (50 (38.5 - 63.5) vs. 70 (62 - 82), respectively, p = 0.001), lower spKt/V (1.60 (1.40 - 1.79) vs. 1.35 (0.90 - 1.50), respectively, p = 0.002), lower triceps skinfold thickness (14 (10 - 19) vs. 9 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.021) and higher MIS (5 (4 - 7) vs. 10 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.013). In the ROC analysis, we found that the optimal cut-off value of MIS for predicting death was 6.5 with 85.7% sensitivity and 62.4% specificity (positive and negative predictive values were 0.6951 and 0.8136, respectively). Advanced age, low spKt/V, and high MIS were found to be predictors of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The 1-year mortality rate was significantly higher in MIS > 6.5 group compared to the MIS ≤ 6.5 group (14,3% (6/41) vs. 1.6% (1/59), respectively). Compared to MIS ≤ 6.5 group, 1 year survival time of the patients with MIS > 6.5 was found to be significantly lower (47.8 ± 0.16 vs. 43.6 ± 1.63 weeks, respectively, p (log-rank) = 0.012). MIS is a robust and independent predictor of short-term mortality in MHD patients. Patients with MIS > 6.5 had a significant risk, and additional risk factors associated with short-term mortality were advanced age and low spKt/V.

  14. Metabolomics in nutrition research: assessment of metabolic status, response to treatment, and predictors of mortality in malnourished children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freemark, Michael

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Malnutrition is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and young children. To identify and target those at highest risk there is a critical need to elucidate the pathogenesis of severe acute childhood malnutrition and to characterize biomarkers that predict complications prior to and during treatment. METHODS: We applied targeted and non-targeted metabolomic analysis to characterize the hormonal and metabolic status of malnourished Ugandan infants and young children prior to and during nutritional therapy. Children ages 6mo-5yr were studied at presentation to Mulago Hospital and during inpatient therapy with milk-based formulas and outpatient supplementation with ready-to-use-food. We assessed the relationship between baseline hormone and metabolite levels and subsequent mortality. RESULTS: 77 patients were enrolled in the study; a subset was followed from inpatient treatment to outpatient clinic. Inpatient and outpatient therapies were associated with significant increases in weight/height z scores, but 12.2% of the children died during hospitalization. The levels of more than 100 metabolites were measured in samples of 1 ml of plasma. Treatment was accompanied by striking changes in the levels of fatty acids, amino acids, acylcarnitines, inflammatory cytokines, and various hormones including leptin, insulin, growth hormone, ghrelin, cortisol, IGF-1, GLP-1, and peptide YY. Multivariate regression analysis controlling for HIV and malarial infection identified a number of biochemical factors that were associated with, and may predict, mortality during treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic analysis provides a comprehensive hormonal and metabolic profile of severely malnourished children prior to and during nutritional rehabilitation. Metabolomics can be used to identify biomarkers associated with mortality and may thereby facilitate the targeting and treatment of those at greatest risk. (author)

  15. Predicted vitamin D status and colon cancer recurrence and mortality in CALGB 89803 (Alliance).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, M A; Yuan, C; Sato, K; Niedzwiecki, D; Ye, X; Saltz, L B; Mayer, R J; Mowat, R B; Whittom, R; Hantel, A; Benson, A; Atienza, D; Messino, M; Kindler, H; Venook, A; Innocenti, F; Warren, R S; Bertagnolli, M M; Ogino, S; Giovannucci, E L; Horvath, E; Meyerhardt, J A; Ng, K

    2017-06-01

    Observational studies suggest that higher levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D) are associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and improved survival of colorectal cancer patients. However, the influence of vitamin D status on cancer recurrence and survival of patients with stage III colon cancer is unknown. We prospectively examined the influence of post-diagnosis predicted plasma 25(OH)D on outcome among 1016 patients with stage III colon cancer who were enrolled in a National Cancer Institute-sponsored adjuvant therapy trial (CALGB 89803). Predicted 25(OH)D scores were computed using validated regression models. We examined the influence of predicted 25(OH)D scores on cancer recurrence and mortality (disease-free survival; DFS) using Cox proportional hazards. Patients in the highest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D score had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for colon cancer recurrence or mortality (DFS) of 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.86), compared with those in the lowest quintile (Ptrend = 0.005). Higher predicted 25(OH)D score was also associated with a significant improvement in recurrence-free survival and overall survival (Ptrend = 0.01 and 0.0004, respectively). The benefit associated with higher predicted 25(OH)D score appeared consistent across predictors of cancer outcome and strata of molecular tumor characteristics, including microsatellite instability and KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA, and TP53 mutation status. Higher predicted 25(OH)D levels after a diagnosis of stage III colon cancer may be associated with decreased recurrence and improved survival. Clinical trials assessing the benefit of vitamin D supplementation in the adjuvant setting are warranted. NCT00003835. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Prediction of pediatric sepsis mortality within 1 h of intensive care admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlapbach, Luregn J; MacLaren, Graeme; Festa, Marino; Alexander, Janet; Erickson, Simon; Beca, John; Slater, Anthony; Schibler, Andreas; Pilcher, David; Millar, Johnny; Straney, Lahn

    2017-08-01

    The definitions of sepsis and septic shock have recently been revised in adults, but contemporary data are needed to inform similar approaches in children. Multicenter cohort study including children predicting mortality (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI 0.65-0.72). Combinations of hypotension, vasopressor therapy, and lactate >2 mmol/l discriminated poorly (AUC <0.60). Multivariate models showed that oxygenation markers, ventilatory support, hypotension, cardiac arrest, serum lactate, pupil responsiveness, and immunosuppression were the best-performing predictors (0.843; 0.811-0.875). We derived a pediatric sepsis score (0.817; 0.779-0.855), and every one-point increase was associated with a 28.5% (23.8-33.2%) increase in the odds of death. Children with a score ≥6 had 19.8% mortality and accounted for 74.3% of deaths. The sepsis score performed comparably when applied to all children admitted with invasive infection (0.810; 0.781-0.840). We observed mortality patterns specific to pediatric sepsis that support the need for specialized definitions of sepsis severity in children. We demonstrated the importance of lactate, cardiovascular, and respiratory derangements at ICU admission for the identification of children with substantially higher risk of sepsis mortality.

  17. Dengue fever mortality score: A novel decision rule to predict death from dengue fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Guo, How-Ran; Su, Shih-Bin; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is still a major challenge for public health, especially during massive outbreaks. We developed a novel prediction score to help decision making, which has not been performed till date. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to recruit all the DF patients who visited a medical center during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, symptoms/signs, chronic comorbidities, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality rates were included in the study. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the independent mortality predictors, which further formed the components of a DF mortality (DFM) score. Bootstrapping method was used to validate the DFM score. In total, a sample of 2358 DF patients was included in this study, which also consisted of 34 deaths (1.44%). Five independent mortality predictors were identified: elderly age (≥65 years), hypotension (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg), hemoptysis, diabetes mellitus, and chronic bedridden. After assigning each predictor a score of "1", we developed a DFM score (range: 0-5), which showed that the mortality risk ratios for scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3 were 0.2%, 2.3%, 6.0%, and 45.5%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.785-0.914), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was 0.642. Compared with score 0, the odds ratios for mortality were 12.73 (95% CI: 3.58-45.30) for score 1, 34.21 (95% CI: 9.75-119.99) for score 2, and 443.89 (95% CI: 86.06-2289.60) for score ≥3, with significant differences (all p values <0.001). The score ≥1 had a sensitivity of 91.2% for mortality and score ≥3 had a specificity of 99.7% for mortality. DFM score was a simple and easy method to help decision making, especially in the massive outbreak. Further studies in other hospitals or nations are warranted to validate this score. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Immunologic Pathways That Predict Mortality in HIV-Infected Ugandans Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sulggi; Byakwaga, Helen; Boum, Yap; Burdo, Tricia H; Williams, Kenneth C; Lederman, Michael M; Huang, Yong; Tracy, Russell P; Cao, Huyen; Haberer, Jessica E; Kembabazi, Annet; Bangsberg, David R; Martin, Jeffrey N; Hunt, Peter W

    2017-04-15

    The plasma kynurenine/tryptophan (KT) ratio, a marker of adaptive immune defects, strongly predicts mortality during treated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease in Ugandans as compared to US-based populations. Here, the KT ratio and T-cell and plasma biomarkers of immune activation were measured among 535 HIV-infected Ugandans prior to ART initiation and at month 6 of viral suppression. The month 6 KT ratio (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.74), soluble CD14 level (aHR, 2.32), interleukin 6 level (aHR, 2.34), and D-dimer level (aHR, 1.95) were associated with mortality occurring ≥6 months after ART initiation. The KT ratio remained significantly predictive of mortality even after adjustment for the additional biomarkers, suggesting an independent contribution to clinical outcomes in resource-limited settings. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. The Aristotle score predicts mortality after surgery of patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yun Hee; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Jeong Eun; Kim, Ji-yong; Youn, YoungAh; Lee, Eun-Jung; Moon, Sena; Lee, Ju Young; Sung, In Kyung

    2013-09-01

    Outcomes after surgical ligation of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in preterm infants are often complicated by prematurity associated comorbidities. The Aristotle comprehensive complexity score (ACCS) has been proposed as a useful tool for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. The aims of this study were to define preoperative risk factors for mortality and to demonstrate the usefulness of ACCS to predict mortality after surgical ligation of PDA in the preterm. Included were 49 preterm babies (≤35 weeks of gestation) who had surgical ligation of PDA between May 2009 and July 2012. Median gestational age was 27.6 weeks (range, 23 to 35 weeks) and median birth weight was 1,040 g (range, 520 to 2,280 g). Median age at operation was 15 days (range, 4 to 44 days) and median weight was 1,120 g (range, 400 to 2,880 g). Initial oral ibuprofen was ineffective in 24 patients and contraindicated in 25. All surgical ligations were done at bedside in the neonatal intensive care unit. Preoperative clinical and laboratory profiles were reviewed and ACCS was derived. Eight of 49 patients (16.3%) died at a median of 14 days (range, 2 to 73 days) after PDA ligation. Patients who had contraindications for oral ibuprofen (odds ratio [OR] 8.94; p=0.049), coagulopathy (OR 12.13; p=0.025), renal dysfunction (OR 28.88; p=0.003), intraventricular hemorrhage greater than grade II or seizure (OR 34.00; p=0.002), and ACCS points (OR 29.594; p<0.05) were significantly associated with an increased risk for mortality. Among the risk factors, ACCS showed the largest area under curve (0.991) by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Optimal cutoff value of ACCS for mortality were 15 or greater, with sensitivity of 87.5%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 97.6%. The ACCS, especially for procedure-independent complexity factors, is a useful tool to predict mortality after ligation of PDA in

  20. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Mpimbaza

    Full Text Available Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP, in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP, set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set. One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set. Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC, both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76 and validation dataset (AUC =0.74. Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%, moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%, and high risk (16.5% vs. 12

  1. Admission Risk Score to Predict Inpatient Pediatric Mortality at Four Public Hospitals in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sears, David; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Rubahika, Denis; Nadler, Adam; Yeka, Adoke; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    Mortality rates among hospitalized children in many government hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa are high. Pediatric emergency services in these hospitals are often sub-optimal. Timely recognition of critically ill children on arrival is key to improving service delivery. We present a simple risk score to predict inpatient mortality among hospitalized children. Between April 2010 and June 2011, the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project (UMSP), in collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), set up an enhanced sentinel site malaria surveillance program for children hospitalized at four public hospitals in different districts: Tororo, Apac, Jinja and Mubende. Clinical data collected through March 2013, representing 50249 admissions were used to develop a mortality risk score (derivation data set). One year of data collected subsequently from the same hospitals, representing 20406 admissions, were used to prospectively validate the performance of the risk score (validation data set). Using a backward selection approach, 13 out of 25 clinical parameters recognizable on initial presentation, were selected for inclusion in a final logistic regression prediction model. The presence of individual parameters was awarded a score of either 1 or 2 based on regression coefficients. For each individual patient, a composite risk score was generated. The risk score was further categorized into three categories; low, medium, and high. Patient characteristics were comparable in both data sets. Measures of performance for the risk score included the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the curve (AUC), both demonstrating good and comparable ability to predict deathusing both the derivation (AUC =0.76) and validation dataset (AUC =0.74). Using the derivation and validation datasets, the mortality rates in each risk category were as follows: low risk (0.8% vs. 0.7%), moderate risk (3.5% vs. 3.2%), and high risk (16.5% vs. 12.6%), respectively. Our

  2. Nonelective Rehospitalizations and Postdischarge Mortality: Predictive Models Suitable for Use in Real Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Gabriel J; Ragins, Arona; Scheirer, Peter; Liu, Vincent; Robles, Jay; Kipnis, Patricia

    2015-11-01

    Hospital discharge planning has been hampered by the lack of predictive models. To develop predictive models for nonelective rehospitalization and postdischarge mortality suitable for use in commercially available electronic medical records (EMRs). Retrospective cohort study using split validation. Integrated health care delivery system serving 3.9 million members. A total of 360,036 surviving adults who experienced 609,393 overnight hospitalizations at 21 hospitals between June 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013. A composite outcome (nonelective rehospitalization and/or death within 7 or 30 days of discharge). Nonelective rehospitalization rates at 7 and 30 days were 5.8% and 12.4%; mortality rates were 1.3% and 3.7%; and composite outcome rates were 6.3% and 14.9%, respectively. Using data from a comprehensive EMR, we developed 4 models that can generate risk estimates for risk of the combined outcome within 7 or 30 days, either at the time of admission or at 8 AM on the day of discharge. The best was the 30-day discharge day model, which had a c-statistic of 0.756 (95% confidence interval, 0.754-0.756) and a Nagelkerke pseudo-R of 0.174 (0.171-0.178) in the validation dataset. The most important predictors-a composite acute physiology score and end of life care directives-accounted for 54% of the predictive ability of the 30-day model. Incorporation of diagnoses (not reliably available for real-time use) did not improve model performance. It is possible to develop robust predictive models, suitable for use in real time with commercially available EMRs, for nonelective rehospitalization and postdischarge mortality.

  3. Prediction of mortality using quantification of renal function in acute heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidmann, Zoraida Moreno; Breidthardt, Tobias; Twerenbold, Raphael; Züsli, Christina; Nowak, Albina; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Erne, Paul; Rentsch, Katharina; de Oliveira, Mucio T; Gualandro, Danielle; Maeder, Micha T; Rubini Gimenez, Maria; Pershyna, Kateryna; Stallone, Fabio; Haas, Laurent; Jaeger, Cedric; Wildi, Karin; Puelacher, Christian; Honegger, Ursina; Wagener, Max; Wittmer, Severin; Schumacher, Carmela; Krivoshei, Lian; Hillinger, Petra; Osswald, Stefan; Mueller, Christian

    2015-12-15

    Renal function, as quantified by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is a predictor of death in acute heart failure (AHF). It is unknown whether one of the clinically-available serum creatinine-based formulas to calculate eGFR is superior to the others for predicting mortality. We quantified renal function using five different formulas (Cockroft-Gault, MDRD-4, MDRD-6, CKD-EPI in patientsrenal function and in three vulnerable subgroups: women, patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, and the elderly. The prognostic accuracy for readmission was poor for all equations, with an AUC around 0.5. Calculating eGFR using the Cockcroft-Gault formula assesses the risk of mortality in patients with AHF more accurately than other commonly used formulas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  5. Impact of structural and economic factors on hospitalization costs, inpatient mortality, and treatment type of traumatic hip fractures in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, Tarun; Moos, Rudolf M; Seifert, Burkhardt; Bopp, Matthias; Senn, Oliver; Simmen, Hans-Peter; Neuhaus, Valentin; Ciritsis, Bernhard

    2017-12-01

    respectively). The proportion of privately insured varied between 16.0% in university hospitals and 38.9% in specialized hospitals. Private insurance had an OR of 1.419 (95% CI 1.306-1.542) in predicting treatment of a hip fracture with primary hip replacement. The seeming importance of insurance type on hip fracture treatment and the large inequity in the distribution of privately insured between provider types would be worth a closer look by the regulatory authorities. Better outcomes, i.e., lower mortality rates for hip fracture treatment in hospitals with a higher structural care level advocate centralization of care.

  6. Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T; Huang, W; Szatmary, P; Abrams, S T; Alhamdi, Y; Lin, Z; Greenhalf, W; Wang, G; Sutton, R; Toh, C H

    2017-08-01

    Early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined. Among 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001). Quantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis. © 2017 The Authors. BJS published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS

  7. Abdominal obesity in Japanese-Brazilians: which measure is best for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marselle Rodrigues Bevilacqua

    Full Text Available This study aimed to verify which anthropometric measure of abdominal obesity was the best predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Japanese-Brazilians. The study followed 1,581 subjects for 14 years. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, metabolic, and anthropometric data were collected. The dependent variable was vital status (alive or dead at the end of the study, and the independent variable was presence of abdominal obesity according to different baseline measures. The mortality rate was estimated, and Poisson regression was used to obtain mortality rate ratios with abdominal obesity, adjusted simultaneously for the other variables. The mortality rate was 10.68/thousand person-years. Male gender, age > 60 years, and arterial hypertension were independent risk factors for mortality. The results indicate that prevalence of abdominal obesity was high among Japanese-Brazilians, and that waist/hip ratio was the measure with the greatest capacity to predict mortality (especially cardiovascular mortality in this group.

  8. Aetiology, treatment and mortality after oesophageal perforation in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryom, Philip; Ravn, Jesper Bohsen; Penninga, Luit

    2011-01-01

    Perforation of the oesophagus into the thoracic cavity is a potentially life-threatening condition. The causes are numerous. Treatment for oesophageal perforation targets mediastinal and pleural contamination. Present knowledge about the causes of perforation and the types of treatment is poor....

  9. Mortality of insect life stages during simulated heat treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . Heat treatment for insect disinfestation uses elevated air temperatures that are lethal to stored-product insects. Heat treatment has been demonstrated in our research to offer a reduced-risk alternative to fumigation or residual pesticide use in empty bins. Heat is also compatible with organic gr...

  10. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  11. Renal function impairment predicts mortality in patients with chronic heart failure treated with resynchronization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronda, Edoardo; Genovese, Stefano; Padeletti, Luigi; Cacciatore, Francesco; Vitale, Dino Franco; Bragato, Renato; Innocenti, Lisa; Schiano, Concetta; Sommese, Linda; De Pascale, Maria Rosaria; Genovese, Luca; Abete, Pasquale; Donatelli, Francesco; Napoli, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    The use of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and implantable cardioverter- defibrillator (ICD) for advanced heart failure (HF) is increasing. Renal dysfunction is a common condition in HF which is associated with a worse survival. The study aims at identifying in patients with advanced HF treated with CRT the effect of baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR), GFR improvement and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) change, after 6-months of CRT implant, on survival. The study population consisted of 375 advanced HF patients who received a CRT between 1999 and 2009, of these 277 received also an ICD implant. Clinical characteristics (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class, ischemic vs. non-ischemic etiology, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, hypertension, LVEF, QRS duration and GFR were recorded. The use of common used drugs was evaluated. Cox proportional hazards analysis was calculated in order to evaluate variables associated to mortality. During a median follow-up of 43.0 months, 93 (24.8%) patients died. Patients deceased during the study had at baseline higher NYHA class and lower LVEF and GFR. In Cox regression analysis, GFR predicts long-term mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.983; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.969-0.998; p = 0.023) independently from the effect of others covariates. In addition, a positive GFR improvement 6 months after CRT implant is significantly associated with a lower hazard of mortality (for each 10 mL/min of GFR improvement HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.75-0.99; p = 0.038). GFR is a significant predictor of mortality in advanced HF patients who received CRT. A GFR improvement 6 months after CRT implant is significantly associated with a lower hazard of mortality.

  12. High blood pressure variability predicts 30-day mortality but not 1-year mortality in hospitalized elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Avraham; Rudman, Yaron; Beloosesky, Yichayaou; Akirov, Amit; Shochat, Tzippy; Grossman, Alon

    2017-10-01

    The association of blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) in hospitalized patients, which represents day-to-day variability, with mortality has been extensively reported in patients with stroke, but poorly defined for other medical conditions. To assess the association of day-to-day blood pressure variability in hospitalized patients, 10 BP measurements were obtained in individuals ≥75 years old hospitalized in a geriatric ward. Day-to-day BPV, measured 3 times a day, was calculated in each patient as the coefficient of variation of systolic BP. Patients were stratified by quartiles of coefficient of variation of systolic BP, and 30-day and 1-year mortality data were compared between those in the highest versus the lowest (reference) group. Overall, 469 patients were included in the final analysis. Mean coefficient of variation of systolic BP was 12.1%. 30-day mortality and 1-year mortality occurred in 29/469 (6.2%) and 95/469 (20.2%) individuals respectively. Patients in the highest quartile of BPV were at a significantly higher risk for 30-day mortality (HR =4.12, CI 1.12-15.10) but not for 1-year mortality compared with the lowest BPV quartile (HR =1.61, CI 0.81-3.23). Day-to-day BPV is associated with 30-day, but not with 1-year mortality in hospitalized elderly patients.

  13. Recurrence and Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Soft Tissue ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    histiocytoma (MFH) (31.5%), liposarcoma (19.0%), and fibrosarcoma (6.0%) (17). The differences in the patterns reinforce the need to describe local disease patterns for diverse geographical regions to unearth peculiarities. Tumour size was predictive of recurrence in this study. The Italian study by Fiore M et al found that.

  14. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  15. Depth of Bacterial Invasion in Resected Intestinal Tissue Predicts Mortality in Surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remon, Juan I.; Amin, Sachin C.; Mehendale, Sangeeta R.; Rao, Rakesh; Luciano, Angel A.; Garzon, Steven A.; Maheshwari, Akhil

    2015-01-01

    Objective Up to a third of all infants who develop necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) require surgical resection of necrotic bowel. We hypothesized that the histopathological findings in surgically-resected bowel can predict the clinical outcome of these infants. Study design We reviewed the medical records and archived pathology specimens from all patients who underwent bowel resection/autopsy for NEC at a regional referral center over a 10-year period. Pathology specimens were graded for the depth and severity of necrosis, inflammation, bacteria invasion, and pneumatosis, and histopathological findings were correlated with clinical outcomes. Results We performed clinico-pathological analysis on 33 infants with confirmed NEC, of which 18 (54.5%) died. Depth of bacterial invasion in resected intestinal tissue predicted death from NEC (odds ratio 5.39 per unit change in the depth of bacterial invasion, 95% confidence interval 1.33-21.73). The presence of transmural necrosis and bacteria in the surgical margins of resected bowel was also associated with increased mortality. Conclusions Depth of bacterial invasion in resected intestinal tissue predicts mortality in surgical NEC. PMID:25950918

  16. Predicting mortality of residents at admission to nursing home: A longitudinal cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallberg Ingalill

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing numbers of deaths occur in nursing homes. Knowledge of the course of development over the years in death rates and predictors of mortality is important for officials responsible for organizing care to be able to ensure that staff is knowledgeable in the areas of care needed. The aim of this study was to investigate the time from residents' admission to Icelandic nursing homes to death and the predictive power of demographic variables, health status (health stability, pain, depression and cognitive performance and functional profile (ADL and social engagement for 3-year mortality in yearly cohorts from 1996-2006. Methods The samples consisted of residents (N = 2206 admitted to nursing homes in Iceland in 1996-2006, who were assessed once at baseline with a Minimum Data Set (MDS within 90 days of their admittance to the nursing home. The follow-up time for survival of each cohort was 36 months from admission. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank test and non-parametric correlation analyses (Spearman's rho, variables associated with survival time with a p-value Results The median survival time was 31 months, and no significant difference was detected in the mortality rate between cohorts. Age, gender (HR 1.52, place admitted from (HR 1.27, ADL functioning (HR 1.33-1.80, health stability (HR 1.61-16.12 and ability to engage in social activities (HR 1.51-1.65 were significant predictors of mortality. A total of 28.8% of residents died within a year, 43.4% within two years and 53.1% of the residents died within 3 years. Conclusion It is noteworthy that despite financial constraints, the mortality rate did not change over the study period. Health stability was a strong predictor of mortality, in addition to ADL performance. Considering these variables is thus valuable when deciding on the type of service an elderly person needs. The mortality rate showed that more than 50% died within 3 years, and almost a third of

  17. Effects of vacuum and controlled atmosphere treatments on insect mortality and lettuce quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yong-Biao

    2003-08-01

    Laboratory studies were conducted to determine the effects of vacuum and controlled atmosphere on mortality of aphids, Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) and Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas), and leafminer, Liriomyza langei Frick, and on the visual quality of iceberg lettuce at three different temperatures. Vacuum at 50 mbar and controlled atmosphere with 6% CO2 were effective in controlling aphids and leafminer larvae. Complete control of N. ribisnigri and M. euphorbiae was achieved with vacuum treatments and 6% CO2 CA treatments at 5 degrees C in 4 d. Mortality was >96% when leafminer larvae were treated with vacuum and 6% CO2 CA treatments for 4 d. However, leafminer pupae were more tolerant to the treatments and highest mortality was close to 60% in 4 d with CO2 under vacuum. None of the treatments had negative effects on visual quality of iceberg lettuce. Results from this study are encouraging and warrant further and large-scale research.

  18. Combining statistical techniques to predict postsurgical risk of 1-year mortality for patients with colon cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arostegui I

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Inmaculada Arostegui,1–3 Nerea Gonzalez,2,4 Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea,5,6 Santiago Lázaro-Aramburu,7 Marisa Baré,2,8 Maximino Redondo,2,9 Cristina Sarasqueta,2,10 Susana Garcia-Gutierrez,2,4 José M Quintana2,4 On behalf of the REDISSEC CARESS-CCR Group2 1Department of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain; 2Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain; 3Basque Center for Applied Mathematics – BCAM, Bilbao, Bizkaia, Spain; 4Research Unit, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain; 5Environmental and Cancer Epidemiology Unit, National Center of Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; 6Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain; 7General Surgery Service, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain; 8Clinical Epidemiology and Cancer Screening Unit, Parc Taulí Sabadell-Hospital Universitari, UAB, Sabadell, Barcelona, Spain; 9Research Unit, Costa del Sol Hospital, Marbella, Malaga, Spain; 10Research Unit, Donostia Hospital, Donostia-San Sebastián, Gipuzkoa, Spain Introduction: Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignancies and a common cause of cancer-related mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical predictive model for 1-year mortality among patients with colon cancer who survive for at least 30 days after surgery. Methods: Patients diagnosed with colon cancer who had surgery for the first time and who survived 30 days after the surgery were selected prospectively. The outcome was mortality within 1 year. Random forest, genetic algorithms and classification and regression trees were combined in order to identify the variables and partition points that optimally classify patients by risk of mortality. The resulting decision tree was categorized into four risk categories

  19. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: The BioBank Japan project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039 and validation cohort (n = 5019. These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.

  20. Citric Acid Cycle Metabolites Predict the Severity of Myocardial Stunning and Mortality in Newborn Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldebrandt, Janus Adler; Støttrup, Nicolaj Brejnholt; Frederiksen, Christian Alcaraz

    2016-01-01

    , which so far are undetermined. DESIGN: A total of 28 newborn pigs were instrumented with a microdialysis catheter in the right ventricle, and intercellular citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolite concentrations were determined at 20-minute intervals. Stunning was induced by 10 cycles...... animals (n = 8), concentrations of succinate (p citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolites reflects...... the presence of myocardial stunning and predicts mortality in acute noninfarct right ventricular heart failure in newborn pigs. This phenomenon occurs independently of the type of inotrope, suggesting that citric acid cycle intermediates represent potential markers of acute noninfarct heart failure....

  1. Prediction of mortality with unmeasured anions in critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novović Miloš N.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Acid-base disorders are common within critically ill patients. Physicochemical approach described by Stewart and modified by Figge gives precise quantification method of metabolic acidosis and insight into its main mechanisms, as well as influence of unmeasured anion on metabolic acidosis. The aims of this study were to determine whether the conventional acid-base variables are connected with survival rate of critically ill patients at Intensive care unit; whether strong ion difference/strong ion gap (SID/SIG is a better predictor of mortality rate comparing to conventional acid-base variables; to determine all significant predictable parameters for the 28-day mortality rate at intensive care units. Methods. This retrospective observational analytic study included 142 adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation, survivors (n = 68 and nonsurvivors (n = 74. Apparent strong ion difference (SIDapp, effective strong ion difference (SIDeff and SIG values were calculated with the Stewart-Figge’s quantitative biophysical method. Descriptive and analytical statistical methods were used in the study [t-test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ2-test, binary logistic regression, Reciever operating characteristic (ROC curves, calibration]. Results. Age, Na+, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II, Cl-, albumin, SIG, SID app, SIDeff, and aninon gap (AG were statistically significant predictors. AG represented a model with imprecise calibration, i.e. a model with little predictive power. APACHE II had p-value more than 0.05 if it was near it, and therefore it could be considered potentially unreliable for outcome prediction. SIDeff and SIG represented models with well-defined calibration. ROC analysis results showed that APACHE II, Cl-, albumin, SIDeff, SIG i AG had the largest area bellow the curve. By creation of logistic models with calibration methods, we found that outcome depends on SIG and APACHE II score. Conclusion. Based

  2. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orsted, David D; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  3. Diabetic foot ulcer severity predicts mortality among veterans with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Meghan B; Hess, Timothy M; Bartle, Brian; Cooper, Jennifer M; Kang, Jonathan; Huang, Elbert S; Smith, Maureen; Sohn, Min-Woong; Crnich, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    Diabetic foot ulcers are associated with an increased risk of death. We evaluated whether ulcer severity at presentation predicts mortality. Patients from a national, retrospective, cohort of veterans with type 2 diabetes who developed incident diabetic foot ulcers between January 1, 2006 and September 1, 2010, were followed until death or the end of the study period, January 1, 2012. Ulcers were characterized as early stage, osteomyelitis, or gangrene at presentation. Cox proportional hazard regression identified independent predictors of death, controlling for comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and healthcare utilization. 66,323 veterans were included in the cohort and followed for a mean of 27.7months: 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates were 80.80%, 69.01% and 28.64%, respectively. Compared to early stage ulcers, gangrene was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.57-1.83, pdiabetic foot ulcer severity is a more significant predictor of subsequent mortality than coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease, or stroke. Unrecognized or under-estimated vascular disease and/or sepsis secondary to gangrene should be explored as possible causal explanations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Short-term cancer mortality projections: a comparative study of prediction methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Terry C K; Dean, C B; Semenciw, Robert

    2011-12-20

    This paper provides a systematic comparison of cancer mortality and incidence projection methods used at major national health agencies. These methods include Poisson regression using an age-period-cohort model as well as a simple log-linear trend, a joinpoint technique, which accounts for sharp changes, autoregressive time series and state-space models. We assess and compare the reliability of these projection methods by using Canadian cancer mortality data for 12 cancer sites at both the national and regional levels. Cancer sites were chosen to provide a wide range of mortality frequencies. We explore specific techniques for small case counts and for overall national-level projections based on regional-level data. No single method is omnibus in terms of superior performance across a wide range of cancer sites and for all sizes of populations. However, the procedures based on age-period-cohort models used by the Association of the Nordic Cancer Registries tend to provide better performance than the other methods considered. The exception is when case counts are small, where the average of the observed counts over the recent 5-year period yields better predictions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Flow-Mediated Dilatation and Asymmetric Dimethylarginine Do Not Predict Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Uzun

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA is associated with increased coronary artery disease risk through endothelial dysfunction in dialysis patients. We aimed to investigate the role of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD, a non-invasive indicator of endothelial function, and ADMA in mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. Methods: PD patients aged 18-80 years; with dialysis duration of at least three months were included. FMD measurement and ADMA levels were recorded. Outcome of the patients on the third year were analyzed with binary logistic analyses. Results: The mean age of the 55 patients was 53±15 years and the mean follow-up duration was 36 months. Mean FMD and ADMA levels were 10.6±6.4% and 81.8±48.0 mol/L, respectively. Eighteen patients died during follow-up. Age, presence of diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease, ultrafiltration amount and serum albumin level were related with mortality while gender, weekly Kt/V and ADMA levels were not. There was no significant relationship between ADMA level and FMD (p=0.873. FMD was negatively correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p=0.001, p<0.001, respectively. Hypertension was found to be the most important single factor determining FMD (p=0.037. Conclusion: Estimating endothelial function by FMD or measuring serum ADMA levels may not be useful for predicting mortality in PD patients.

  6. Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

    2017-06-01

    To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

  7. Quick SOFA Scores Predict Mortality in Adult Emergency Department Patients With and Without Suspected Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Adam J; Ng, Jennifer; Thode, Henry C; Spiegel, Rory; Weingart, Scott

    2017-04-01

    The Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (composed of respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min, systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg, and altered mental status) may identify patients with infection who are at risk of complications. We determined the association between qSOFA scores and outcomes in adult emergency department (ED) patients with and without suspected infection. We performed a single-site, retrospective review of adult ED patients between January 2014 and March 2015. Patients triaged to fast-track, dentistry, psychiatry, and labor and delivery were excluded. qSOFA scores were calculated with simultaneous vital signs and Modified Early Warning System scores. Patients receiving intravenous antibiotics were presumed to have suspected infection. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the association between qSOFA scores and inpatient mortality, admission, and length of stay. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis and c statistics were also calculated for ICU admission and mortality. We included 22,530 patients. Mean age was 54 years (SD 21 years), 53% were women, 45% were admitted, and mortality rate was 1.6%. qSOFA scores were associated with mortality (0 [0.6%], 1 [2.8%], 2 [12.8%], and 3 [25.0%]), ICU admission (0 [5.1%], 1 [10.5%], 2 [20.8%], and 3 [27.4%]), and hospital length of stay (0 [123 hours], 1 [163 hours], 2 [225 hours], and 3 [237 hours]). Adjusted rates were also associated with qSOFA. The c statistics for mortality in patients with and without suspected infection were similarly high (0.75 [95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.78) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.74), respectively. qSOFA scores were associated with inpatient mortality, admission, ICU admission, and hospital length of stay in adult ED patients likely to be admitted both with and without suspected infection and may be useful in predicting outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by

  8. C-reactive protein/albumin ratio predicts 90-day mortality of septic patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otavio T Ranzani

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Residual inflammation at ICU discharge may have impact upon long-term mortality. However, the significance of ongoing inflammation on mortality after ICU discharge is poorly described. C-reactive protein (CRP and albumin are measured frequently in the ICU and exhibit opposing patterns during inflammation. Since infection is a potent trigger of inflammation, we hypothesized that CRP levels at discharge would correlate with long-term mortality in septic patients and that the CRP/albumin ratio would be a better marker of prognosis than CRP alone. METHODS: We evaluated 334 patients admitted to the ICU as a result of severe sepsis or septic shock who were discharged alive after a minimum of 72 hours in the ICU. We evaluated the performance of both CRP and CRP/albumin to predict mortality at 90 days after ICU discharge. Two multivariate logistic models were generated based on measurements at discharge: one model included CRP (Model-CRP, and the other included the CRP/albumin ratio (Model-CRP/albumin. RESULTS: There were 229 (67% and 111 (33% patients with severe sepsis and septic shock, respectively. During the 90 days of follow-up, 73 (22% patients died. CRP/albumin ratios at admission and at discharge were associated with a poor outcome and showed greater accuracy than CRP alone at these time points (p = 0.0455 and p = 0.0438, respectively. CRP levels and the CRP/albumin ratio were independent predictors of mortality at 90 days (Model-CRP: adjusted OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.14-4.83, p = 0.021; Model-CRP/albumin: adjusted OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.10-4.67, p = 0.035. Both models showed similar accuracy (p = 0.2483. However, Model-CRP was not calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Residual inflammation at ICU discharge assessed using the CRP/albumin ratio is an independent risk factor for mortality at 90 days in septic patients. The use of the CRP/albumin ratio as a long-term marker of prognosis provides more consistent results than standard CRP values alone.

  9. Prediction of Waitlist Mortality in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates: The Candidate Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasseron, Carine; Legeai, Camille; Jacquelinet, Christian; Leprince, Pascal; Cantrelle, Christelle; Audry, Benoît; Porcher, Raphael; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

    2017-09-01

    The cardiac allocation system in France is currently based on urgency and geography. Medical urgency is defined by therapies without considering objective patient mortality risk factors. This study aimed to develop a waitlist mortality risk score from commonly available candidate variables. The study included all patients, aged 16 years or older, registered on the national registry CRISTAL for first single-organ heart transplantation between January 2010 and December 2014. This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables at listing with 1-year waitlist death or delisting for worsening medical condition was assessed within the derivation cohort. The predictors were used to generate a candidate risk score (CRS). Validation of the CRS was performed in the validation cohort. Concordance probability estimation (CPE) was used to evaluate the discriminative capacity of the models. During the study period, 2333 patients were newly listed. The derivation (n =1 555) and the validation cohorts (n = 778) were similar. Short-term mechanical circulatory support, natriuretic peptide decile, glomerular filtration rate, and total bilirubin level were included in a simplified model and incorporated into the score. The Concordance probability estimation of the CRS was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The correlation between observed and expected 1-year waitlist mortality in the validation cohort was 0.87. The candidate risk score provides an accurate objective prediction of waitlist mortality. It is currently being used to develop a modified cardiac allocation system in France.

  10. [Predictive value of the VMS theme 'Frail elderly': delirium, falling and mortality in elderly hospital patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Frederike M M; de Rooij, Sophia E J A; Schuurman, Truus; Duijvelaar, Karlijn M; van Munster, Barbara C

    2015-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of safety management system (VMS) screening questions for falling, delirium, and mortality, as punt down in the VMS theme 'Frail elderly'. Retrospective observational study. We selected all patients ≥ 70 years who were admitted to non-ICU wards at the Deventer Hospital, the Netherlands, for at least 24 hours between 28 March 2011 and 10 June 2011. On admission, patients were screened with the VMS instrument by a researcher. Delirium and falls were recorded during hospitalisation. Six months after hospitalisation, data on mortality were collected. We included 688 patients with a median age of 78.7 (range: 70.0-97.1); 50.7% was male. The sensitivity of the screening for delirium risk was 82%, the specificity 62%. The sensitivity of the screening for risk of falling was 63%, the specificity 65%. Independent predictors for mortality within 6 months were delirium risk (odds ratio (OR): 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-3.2), malnutrition (OR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.5), admission to a non-surgical ward (OR: 3.0; 95% CI 1.8-5.1), and older age (OR: 1.1; 95%CI 1.0-1.1). Patients classified by the VMS theme 'Frail elderly' as having more risk factors had a higher risk of dying (p instrument for identifying those elderly people with a high risk of developing this condition; the VMS sensitivity for fall risk is moderate. The number of positive VMS risk factors correlates with mortality and may therefore be regarded as a measure of frailty.

  11. Nutritional Status Predicts 10-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin Sook Kang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Protein-energy wasting (PEW is associated with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD on maintenance hemodialysis. The correct diagnosis of PEW is extremely important in order to predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear which parameters should be used to diagnose PEW. Therefore, this retrospective observational study investigated the relationship between mortality and nutritional parameters in ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. Nutritional parameters, including body mass index, serum albumin, dietary intake, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR, and malnutrition inflammation score (MIS, were measured at baseline. Fifty-three patients died during the study. Survivors had significantly higher nPCR (1.10 ± 0.24 g/kg/day vs. 1.01 ± 0.21 g/kg/day; p = 0.048, energy intake (26.7 ± 5.8 kcal/kg vs. 24.3 ± 4.2 kcal/kg; p = 0.009 and protein intake (0.91 ± 0.21 g/kg vs. 0.82 ± 0.24 g/kg; p = 0.020, and lower MIS (5.2 ± 2.3 vs. 6.1 ± 2.1, p = 0.039. In multivariable analysis, energy intake <25 kcal/kg (HR 1.860, 95% CI 1.018–3.399; p = 0.044 and MIS > 5 (HR 2.146, 95% CI 1.173–3.928; p = 0.013 were independent variables associated with all-cause mortality. These results suggest that higher MIS and lower energy intake are harmful to ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Optimal energy intake could reduce mortality in these patients.

  12. Nutritional Status Predicts 10-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Shin Sook; Chang, Jai Won; Park, Yongsoon

    2017-04-18

    Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is associated with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on maintenance hemodialysis. The correct diagnosis of PEW is extremely important in order to predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear which parameters should be used to diagnose PEW. Therefore, this retrospective observational study investigated the relationship between mortality and nutritional parameters in ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. Nutritional parameters, including body mass index, serum albumin, dietary intake, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR), and malnutrition inflammation score (MIS), were measured at baseline. Fifty-three patients died during the study. Survivors had significantly higher nPCR (1.10 ± 0.24 g/kg/day vs. 1.01 ± 0.21 g/kg/day; p = 0.048), energy intake (26.7 ± 5.8 kcal/kg vs. 24.3 ± 4.2 kcal/kg; p = 0.009) and protein intake (0.91 ± 0.21 g/kg vs. 0.82 ± 0.24 g/kg; p = 0.020), and lower MIS (5.2 ± 2.3 vs. 6.1 ± 2.1, p = 0.039). In multivariable analysis, energy intake 5 (HR 2.146, 95% CI 1.173-3.928; p = 0.013) were independent variables associated with all-cause mortality. These results suggest that higher MIS and lower energy intake are harmful to ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Optimal energy intake could reduce mortality in these patients.

  13. Delayed conifer mortality after fuel reduction treatments: interactive effects of fuel, fire intensity, and bark beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngblood, Andrew; Grace, James B; McIver, James D

    2009-03-01

    Many low-elevation dry forests of the western United States contain more small trees and fewer large trees, more down woody debris, and less diverse and vigorous understory plant communities compared to conditions under historical fire regimes. These altered structural conditions may contribute to increased probability of unnaturally severe wildfires, susceptibility to uncharacteristic insect outbreaks, and drought-related mortality. Broad-scale fuel reduction and restoration treatments are proposed to promote stand development on trajectories toward more sustainable structures. Little research to date, however, has quantified the effects of these treatments on the ecosystem, especially delayed and latent tree mortality resulting directly or indirectly from treatments. In this paper, we explore complex hypotheses relating to the cascade of effects that influence ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mortality using structural equation modeling (SEM). We used annual census and plot data through six growing seasons after thinning and four growing seasons after burning from a replicated, operational-scale, completely randomized experiment conducted in northeastern Oregon, USA, as part of the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study. Treatments included thin, burn, thin followed by burn (thin + burn), and control. Burn and thin + burn treatments increased the proportion of dead trees while the proportion of dead trees declined or remained constant in thin and control units, although the density of dead trees was essentially unchanged with treatment. Most of the new mortality (96%) occurred within two years of treatment and was attributed to bark beetles. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality, while low overall, was greatest in thin + burn treatments. SEM results indicate that the probability of mortality of large-diameter ponderosa pine from bark beetles and wood borers was directly related to surface fire severity and bole charring, which

  14. IMPACT OF FIVE TREATMENT FACTORS ON MUSSEL MORTALITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel P. Molloy

    2003-12-08

    Under this USDOE-NETL contract, the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens is being developed as a biocontrol agent for zebra mussels. The specific purpose of the contract is to identify factors that affect mussel kill. Test results reported herein indicate that mussel kill should not be affected by: (1) air bubbles being carried by currents through power plant pipes; (2) pipe orientation (e.g., vertical or horizontal); (3) whether the bacterial cell concentration during a treatment is constant or slightly varying; (4) whether a treatment is between 3 hr and 12 hr in duration, given that the total quantity of bacteria being applied to the pipe is a constant; and (5) whether the water temperature is between 13 C and 23 C.

  15. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  16. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  17. Development and Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving 14 Days of Mechanical Ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Catherine L; Caldwell, Ellen S; Cox, Christopher E; Douglas, Ivor S; Kahn, Jeremy M; White, Douglas B; Seeley, Eric J; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Rubenfeld, Gordon D; Angus, Derek C; Carson, Shannon S

    2015-11-01

    The existing risk prediction model for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation is not applicable until after 21 days of mechanical ventilation. We sought to develop and validate a mortality prediction model for patients earlier in the ICU course using data from day 14 of mechanical ventilation. Multicenter retrospective cohort study. Forty medical centers across the United States. Adult patients receiving at least 14 days of mechanical ventilation. None. Predictor variables were measured on day 14 of mechanical ventilation in the development cohort and included in a logistic regression model with 1-year mortality as the outcome. Variables were sequentially eliminated to develop the ProVent 14 model. This model was then generated in the validation cohort. A simplified prognostic scoring rule (ProVent 14 Score) using categorical variables was created in the development cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Four hundred ninety-one patients and 245 patients were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The most parsimonious model included age, platelet count, requirement for vasopressors, requirement for hemodialysis, and nontrauma admission. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for the ProVent 14 model using continuous variables was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) in the development cohort and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83) in the validation cohort. The ProVent 14 Score categorized age at 50 and 65 years old and platelet count at 100×10(9)/L and had similar discrimination as the ProVent 14 model in both cohorts. Using clinical variables available on day 14 of mechanical ventilation, the ProVent 14 model can identify patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation with a high risk of mortality within 1 year.

  18. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-01-01

    Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to

  19. Personalized Mortality Prediction Driven by Electronic Medical Data and a Patient Similarity Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our

  20. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon Lee

    Full Text Available Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1 to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2 to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made.We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM to an intensive care unit (ICU database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care.The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR systems, our novel medical data analytics

  1. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  2. Two-Step Screening for Depressive Symptoms and Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyoung Suk; Moser, Debra K; Pelter, Michele; Biddle, Martha J; Dracup, Kathleen

    2017-05-01

    Comorbid depression in patients with heart failure is associated with increased risk for death. In order to effectively identify depressed patients with cardiac disease, the American Heart Association suggests a 2-step screening method: administering the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire first and then the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. However, whether the 2-step method is better for predicting poor prognosis in heart failure than is either the 2-item or the 9-item tool alone is not known. To determine whether the 2-step method is better than either the 2-item or the 9-item questionnaire alone for predicting all-cause mortality in heart failure. During a 2-year period, 562 patients with heart failure were assessed for depression by using the 2-step method. With the 2-step method, results are considered positive if patients endorse either depressed mood or anhedonia on the 2-item screen and have scores of 10 or higher on the 9-item screen. Screening results with the 2-step method were not associated with all-cause mortality. Patients with scores positive for depression on either the 2-item or 9-item screen alone had 53% and 60% greater risk, respectively, for all-cause death than did patients with scores negative for depression after adjustments for covariates (hazard ratio, 1.530; 95% CI, 1.029-2.274 for the 2-item screen; hazard ratio, 1.603; 95% CI, 1.079-2.383 for the 9-item screen). The 2-step method has no clear advantages compared with the 2-item screen alone or the 9-item screen alone for predicting adverse prognostic effects of depressive symptoms in heart failure. ©2017 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  3. Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmberg, Mathias J; Moskowitz, Ari; Raymond, Tia T

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. DESIGN: Observational study using prospectively collected data. SETTING: This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guid...

  4. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  5. High performance of a risk calculator that includes renal function in predicting mortality of hypertensive patients in clinical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravera, Maura; Cannavò, Rossella; Noberasco, Giuseppe; Guasconi, Alessandro; Cabib, Ursula; Pieracci, Laura; Pegoraro, Valeria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cricelli, Claudio; Deferrari, Giacomo; Paoletti, Ernesto

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of a risk calculator that includes renal function as compared with that of the traditional Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in predicting the risk of mortality of hypertensive individuals managed in primary care. From the databases of British and Italian General Practitioners, we retrieved demographic and clinical data for 35 101 UK and 27 818 Italian individuals aged 35-74 years with a diagnosis of hypertension. Then, the 5-year incidence of cardiovascular events as well as all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were recorded for both samples. A comparison analysis of the performance of the Individual Data Analysis of Antihypertensive Intervention Trials (INDANA) calculator with that of FRS in predicting 5-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk was made. The INDANA calculator was more accurate than the FRS in predicting all-cause [Δc 0.038, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.026-0.051 for United Kingdom, and 0.018, 95% CI 0.010-0.027 for Italy, both P calculator, 20% of the UK and 10% of the Italian patients were reclassified to higher risk classes for all-cause mortality, and 25 and 28%, respectively were reclassified when cardiovascular mortality was assessed (P calculator proved to be more accurate than the FRS in predicting the risk of mortality in hypertensive patients and should be considered for systematic adoption for risk stratification of hypertensive individuals managed in primary care.

  6. Antibiotic treatment and mortality in patients with Listeria monocytogenes meningitis or bacteraemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thønnings, S; Knudsen, J D; Schønheyder, H C

    2016-01-01

    . monocytogenes infections including the efficacy of empiric and definitive antibiotic therapies. Demographic, clinical and biochemical findings, antibiotic treatment and 30-day mortality for all episodes of L. monocytogenes bacteraemia and/or meningitis were collected by retrospective medical record review...... both. Significant risk factors for 30-day mortality were septic shock (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.4), altered mental state (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.7-7.6) and inadequate empiric antibiotic therapy (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.8-8.1). Cephalosporins accounted for 90% of inadequately treated cases. Adequate definitive...... mortality in an adjusted analysis compared with meropenem (OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.1-0.8). In conclusion, inadequate empiric antibiotic therapy and definitive therapy with meropenem were both associated with significantly higher 30-day mortality....

  7. A Risk Prediction Score for Kidney Failure or Mortality in Rhabdomyolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Gearoid M.; Zeng, Xiaoxi; Waikar, Sushrut S.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT). OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80–0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80–0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (10), 61.2% died or needed RRT. CONCLUSIONS AND

  8. Limitations of the MELD score in predicting mortality or need for removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidt Jan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a poor prognosis and liver transplantation provides the only curative treatment option with excellent long-term results. The relative shortage of organ donors renders the allocation algorithms of organs essential. The optimal strategy based on scoring systems and/or waiting time is still under debate. Methods Data sets of 268 consecutive patients listed for single-organ liver transplantation for nonfulminant liver disease between 2003 and 2005 were included into the study. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP scores of all patients at the time of listing were used for calculation. The predictive ability not only for mortality on the waiting list but also for the need for withdrawal from the waiting list was calculated for both scores. The Mann-Whitney-U Test was used for the univariate analysis and the AUC-Model for discrimination of the scores. Results In the univariate analysis comparing patients who are still on the waiting list and patients who died or were removed from the waiting list due to poor conditions, the serum albumin, bilirubin INR, and CTP and MELD scores as well as the presence of ascites and encephalopathy were significantly different between the groups (p Comparing the predictive abilities of CTP and MELD scores, the best discrimination between patients still alive on the waiting list and patients who died on or were removed from the waiting list was achieved at a CTP score of ≥9 and a MELD score of ≥14.4. The sensitivity and specificity to identify mortality or severe deterioration for CTP was 69.0% and 70.5%, respectively; for MELD, it was 62.1% and 72.7%, respectively. This result was supported by the AUC analysis showing a strong trend for superiority of CTP over MELD scores (AUROC 0.73 and 0.68, resp.; p = 0.091. Conclusion The long term prediction of mortality or removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver

  9. Systemic inflammation predicts all-cause mortality: a glasgow inflammation outcome study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Proctor

    Full Text Available Markers of the systemic inflammatory response, including C-reactive protein and albumin (combined to form the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, as well as neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts have been shown to be prognostic of survival in patients with cancer. The aim of the present study was to examine the prognostic relationship between these markers of the systemic inflammatory response and all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in a large incidentally sampled cohort.Patients (n = 160 481 who had an incidental blood sample taken between 2000 and 2008 were studied for the prognostic value of C-reactive protein (>10mg/l, albumin (>35mg/l, neutrophil (>7.5×109/l lymphocyte and platelet counts. Also, patients (n = 52 091 sampled following the introduction of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l measurements were studied. A combination of these markers, to make cumulative inflammation-based scores, were investigated.In all patients (n = 160 481 C-reactive protein (>10mg/l (HR 2.71, p35mg/l (HR 3.68, p3mg/l (n = 52 091. A combination of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l, albumin and neutrophil count predicted all-cause (HR 7.37, p<0.001, AUC 0.723, cancer (HR 9.32, p<0.001, AUC 0.731, cardiovascular (HR 4.03, p<0.001, AUC 0.650 and cerebrovascular (HR 3.10, p<0.001, AUC 0.623 mortality.The results of the present study showed that an inflammation-based prognostic score, combining high sensitivity C-reactive protein, albumin and neutrophil count is prognostic of all-cause mortality.

  10. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-04-01

    We evaluated the effect of diabetic retinopathy on 25 year survival rate among a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark. In 1973 all diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark with onset before the age of 30 years as of 1 July 1973 were identified (n=727). In 1981, only 627 patients were still alive and resident in Denmark. Of these, 573 (91%) participated in a clinical baseline examination, in which diabetic retinopathy was graded and other markers of diabetes measured. Mortality rate was examined in a 25 year follow-up and related to the baseline examination. Of the 573 patients examined at baseline in 1981 and 1982, 297 (51.8%) were still alive in November 2006. Of the others, 256 (44.7%) had died, three (0.5%) had left Denmark and 17 (3%) were of unknown status. Age- and sex-adjusted HRs of mortality rate were 1.01 (95% CI 0.72-1.42) and 2.04 (1.43-2.91) for patients with non-proliferative and proliferative retinopathy respectively at baseline compared with patients with no retinopathy. After adjusting for proteinuria, HR among patients with proliferative retinopathy lost statistical significance, but still remained 1.48 (95% CI 0.98-2.23). The 10 year survival rate of patients who had proliferative retinopathy as well as proteinuria at baseline was 22.2% and significantly lower (pretinopathy only (79.0%) or neither (86.6%). Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients. In combination they act even more strongly. Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy did not affect survival rate.

  11. Mortality is associated with inflammation, anemia, specific diseases and treatments, and molecular markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Moeller

    Full Text Available Lifespan is a complex trait, and longitudinal data for humans are naturally scarce. We report the results of Cox regression and Pearson correlation analyses using data of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP, with mortality data of 1518 participants (113 of which died, over a time span of more than 10 years. We found that in the Cox regression model based on the Bayesian information criterion, apart from chronological age of the participant, six baseline variables were considerably associated with higher mortality rates: smoking, mean attachment loss (i.e. loss of tooth supporting tissue, fibrinogen concentration, albumin/creatinine ratio, treated gastritis, and medication during the last 7 days. Except for smoking, the causative contribution of these variables to mortality was deemed inconclusive. In turn, four variables were found to be associated with decreased mortality rates: treatment of benign prostatic hypertrophy, treatment of dyslipidemia, IGF-1 and being female. Here, being female was an undisputed causative variable, the causal role of IFG-1 was deemed inconclusive, and the treatment effects were deemed protective to the degree that treated subjects feature better survival than respective controls. Using Cox modeling based on the Akaike information criterion, diabetes, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell count and serum calcium were also associated with mortality. The latter two, together with albumin and fibrinogen, aligned with an"integrated albunemia" model of aging proposed recently.

  12. A Comparison of Intensive Care Unit Mortality Prediction Models through the Use of Data Mining Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sujin; Kim, Woojae; Park, Rae Woong

    2011-12-01

    The intensive care environment generates a wealth of critical care data suited to developing a well-calibrated prediction tool. This study was done to develop an intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction model built on University of Kentucky Hospital (UKH)'s data and to assess whether the performance of various data mining techniques, such as the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and decision trees (DT), outperform the conventional logistic regression (LR) statistical model. The models were built on ICU data collected regarding 38,474 admissions to the UKH between January 1998 and September 2007. The first 24 hours of the ICU admission data were used, including patient demographics, admission information, physiology data, chronic health items, and outcome information. Only 15 study variables were identified as significant for inclusion in the model development. The DT algorithm slightly outperformed (AUC, 0.892) the other data mining techniques, followed by the ANN (AUC, 0.874), and SVM (AUC, 0.876), compared to that of the APACHE III performance (AUC, 0.871). With fewer variables needed, the machine learning algorithms that we developed were proven to be as good as the conventional APACHE III prediction.

  13. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We evaluated the effect of diabetic retinopathy on 25 year survival rate among a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark. METHODS: In 1973 all diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark with onset before the age of 30 years as of 1 July 1973 w....../INTERPRETATION: Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients. In combination they act even more strongly. Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy did not affect survival rate.......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We evaluated the effect of diabetic retinopathy on 25 year survival rate among a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark. METHODS: In 1973 all diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark with onset before the age of 30 years as of 1 July 1973...... were identified (n=727). In 1981, only 627 patients were still alive and resident in Denmark. Of these, 573 (91%) participated in a clinical baseline examination, in which diabetic retinopathy was graded and other markers of diabetes measured. Mortality rate was examined in a 25 year follow...

  14. Pyogenic liver abscess: current status and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwonko, Matías E; Huespe, Pablo; Bertone, Santiago; Pellegrini, Pablo; Mazza, Oscar; Pekolj, Juan; de Santibañes, Eduardo; Hyon, Sung Ho; de Santibañes, Martín

    2016-12-01

    In times of modern surgery, transplantation and percutaneous techniques, pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) has essentially become a problem of biliary or iatrogenic origin. In the current scenario, diagnostic approach, clinical behavior and therapeutic outcomes have not been profoundly studied. This study analyzes the clinical and microbiological features, diagnostic methods, therapeutic management and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes of PLA. A retrospective single-center study was conducted including 142 patients admitted to the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, between 2005 and 2015 with first episodes of PLA. Prevailing identifiable causes were biliary diseases (47.9%) followed by non-biliary percutaneous procedures (NBIPLA, 15.5%). Seventeen patients (12%) were liver recipients. Eleven patients (7.8%) died and 18 patients (13.7%) had recurrence in the first year of follow up. The isolation of multiresistant organisms (p = 0.041) and a history of cholangitis (p 5 mg/dL (p = 0.022) and bilateral involvement (p = 0.014) in the multivariate analysis. NBPLA and PLA after transplantation may be increasing among the population of PLA in referral centers. History of cholangitis is a strong predictor for recurrence. Mortality is associated to hiperbilirrubinemia and anatomical distribution of the lesions. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. New algorithm of mortality risk prediction for cardiovascular patients admitted in intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moridani, Mohammad Karimi; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing and managing of admitted patients in intensive care unit (ICU) with high risk of mortality is important for maximizing the patient's outcomes and minimizing the costs. This study is based on linear and nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) to design a classifier for mortality prediction of cardio vascular patients admitted to ICU. In this study we evaluated 90 cardiovascular ICU patients (45 males and 45 females). Linear and nonlinear features of HRV include SDNN, NN50, low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), correlation dimension, approximate entropy; detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Poincaré plot were analyzed. Paired sample t-test was used for statistical comparison. Finally, we fed these features to the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to find a robust classification method to classify the patients with low risk and high risk of death. Almost all HRV features measuring heart rate complexity were significantly decreased in the episode of half-hour before death. The results generated based on SVM and MLP classifiers show that SVM classifier is enable to distinguish high and low risk episodes with the total classification sensitivity, specificity, positive productivity and accuracy rate of 97.3%, 98.1%, 92.5% and 99.3%, respectively. The results of the current study suggest that nonlinear features of the HRV signals could be show nonlinear dynamics.

  16. Circulating Biologically Active Adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) Predicts Hemodynamic Support Requirement and Mortality During Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caironi, Pietro; Latini, Roberto; Struck, Joachim; Hartmann, Oliver; Bergmann, Andreas; Maggio, Giuseppe; Cavana, Marco; Tognoni, Gianni; Pesenti, Antonio; Gattinoni, Luciano; Masson, Serge

    2017-08-01

    The biological role of adrenomedullin (ADM), a hormone involved in hemodynamic homeostasis, is controversial in sepsis because administration of either the peptide or an antibody against it may be beneficial. Plasma biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) was assessed on days 1, 2, and 7 after randomization of 956 patients with sepsis or septic shock to albumin or crystalloids for fluid resuscitation in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis trial. We tested the association of bio-ADM and its time-dependent variation with fluid therapy, vasopressor administration, organ failures, and mortality. Plasma bio-ADM on day 1 (median [Q1-Q3], 110 [59-198] pg/mL) was higher in patients with septic shock, associated with 90-day mortality, multiple organ failures and the average extent of hemodynamic support therapy (fluids and vasopressors), and serum lactate time course over the first week. Moreover, it predicted incident cardiovascular dysfunction in patients without shock at enrollment (OR [95% CI], 1.9 [1.4-2.5]; P sepsis, the circulating, biologically active form of ADM may help individualizing hemodynamic support therapy, while avoiding harmful effects. Its possible pathophysiologic role makes bio-ADM a potential candidate for future targeted therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00707122. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: high-resolution CT scores predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujimoto, Kiminori [Kurume University School of Medicine, and Center for Diagnostic Imaging, Kurume University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Kurume, Fukuoka (Japan); Taniguchi, Hiroyuki; Kondoh, Yasuhiro; Kataoka, Kensuke [Tosei General Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergy, Seto, Aichi (Japan); Johkoh, Takeshi [Kinki Central Hospital of Mutual Aid Association of Public School Teachers, Department of Radiology, Itami (Japan); Ichikado, Kazuya [Saiseikai Kumamoto Hospital, Division of Respiratory Medicine, Kumamoto (Japan); Sumikawa, Hiromitsu [Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Ogura, Takashi; Endo, Takahiro [Kanagawa Cardiovascular and Respiratory Center, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Kawaguchi, Atsushi [Kurume University School of Medicine, Biostatistics Center, Kurume (Japan); Mueller, Nestor L. [University of British Columbia and Vancouver General Hospital, Department of Radiology, Vancouver, B.C. (Canada)

    2012-01-15

    To determine high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings helpful in predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AEx-IPF). Sixty patients with diagnosis of AEx-IPF were reviewed retrospectively. Two groups (two observers each) independently evaluated pattern, distribution, and extent of HRCT findings at presentation and calculated an HRCT score at AEx based on normal attenuation areas and extent of abnormalities, such as areas of ground-glass attenuation and/or consolidation with or without traction bronchiectasis or bronchiolectasis and areas of honeycombing. The correlation between the clinical data including the HRCT score and mortality (cause-specific survival) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Serum KL-6 level, PaCO{sub 2}, and the HRCT score were statistically significant predictors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the HRCT score was an independently significant predictor of outcome (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19, P = 0.0002). The area under receiver operating characteristics curve for the HRCT score was statistically significant in the classification of survivors or nonsurvivors (0.944; P < 0.0001). Survival in patients with HRCT score {>=}245 was worse than those with lower score (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). The HRCT score at AEx is independently related to prognosis in patients with AEx-IPF. (orig.)

  18. Missing Value Imputation Improves Mortality Risk Prediction Following Cardiac Surgery: An Investigation of an Australian Patient Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Md Nazmul; Reid, Christopher M; Tran, Lavinia; Cochrane, Andrew; Billah, Baki

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of missing values on the prediction performance of the model predicting 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery as an example. Information from 83,309 eligible patients, who underwent cardiac surgery, recorded in the Australia and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database registry between 2001 and 2014, was used. An existing 30-day mortality risk prediction model developed from ANZSCTS database was re-estimated using the complete cases (CC) analysis and using multiple imputation (MI) analysis. Agreement between the risks generated by the CC and MI analysis approaches was assessed by the Bland-Altman method. Performances of the two models were compared. One or more missing predictor variables were present in 15.8% of the patients in the dataset. The Bland-Altman plot demonstrated significant disagreement between the risk scores (prisk of mortality. Compared to CC analysis, MI analysis resulted in an average of 8.5% decrease in standard error, a measure of uncertainty. The MI model provided better prediction of mortality risk (observed: 2.69%; MI: 2.63% versus CC: 2.37%, Pvalues improved the 30-day mortality risk prediction following cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The prediction of in-hospital mortality by mid-upper arm circumference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opio, Martin Otyek; Namujwiga, Teopista; Nakitende, Imaculate

    2018-01-01

    There are few reports of the association of nutritional status with in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients in sub-Saharan Africa. This is a prospective observational study comparing the predictive value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 899 acutely ill medical patients...... patients in a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa....... admitted to a resource-poor sub-Saharan hospital with mental alertness, mobility and vital signs. Mid-upper arm circumference ranged from 15 cm to 42 cm, and 12 (24%) of the 50 patients with a MUAC less than 20 cm died (OR 4.84, 95% CI 2.23-10.37). Of the 237 patients with a MUAC more than 28 cm only six...

  20. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  1. Mortality in COPD patients discharged from hospital: the role of treatment and co-morbidity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudmundsson, G; Gislason, T; Lindberg, E

    2006-01-01

    . CONCLUSION: Mortality was high after COPD admission, with older age, decreased lung function, lower health status and diabetes the most important risk factors. Treatment with inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators may be associated with lower mortality in patients with COPD.......BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyse mortality and associated risk factors, with special emphasis on health status, medications and co-morbidity, in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that had been hospitalized for acute exacerbation. METHODS: This prospective...... study included 416 patients from each of the five Nordic countries that were followed for 24 months. The St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) was administered. Information on treatment and co-morbidity was obtained. RESULTS: During the follow-up 122 (29.3%) of the 416 patients died. Patients...

  2. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

  3. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  4. Mortality prediction in intensive care units (ICUs) using a deep rule-based fuzzy classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davoodi, Raheleh; Moradi, Mohammad Hassan

    2018-03-01

    Electronic health records (EHRs) contain critical information useful for clinical studies. Early assessment of patients' mortality in intensive care units is of great importance. In this paper, a Deep Rule-Based Fuzzy System (DRBFS) was proposed to develop an accurate in-hospital mortality prediction in the intensive care unit (ICU) patients employing a large number of input variables. Our main contribution is proposing a system, which is capable of dealing with big data with heterogeneous mixed categorical and numeric attributes. In DRBFS, the hidden layer in each unit is represented by interpretable fuzzy rules. Benefiting the strength of soft partitioning, a modified supervised fuzzy k-prototype clustering has been employed for fuzzy rule generation. According to the stacked approach, the same input space is kept in every base building unit of DRBFS. The training set in addition to random shifts, obtained from random projections of prediction results of the current base building unit is presented as the input of the next base building unit. A cohort of 10,972 adult admissions was selected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) data set, where 9.31% of patients have died in the hospital. A heterogeneous feature set of first 48 h from ICU admissions, were extracted for in-hospital mortality rate. Required preprocessing and appropriate feature extraction were applied. To avoid biased assessments, performance indexes were calculated using holdout validation. We have evaluated our proposed method with several common classifiers including naïve Bayes (NB), decision trees (DT), Gradient Boosting (GB), Deep Belief Networks (DBN) and D-TSK-FC. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) for NB, DT, GB, DBN, D-TSK-FC and our proposed method were 73.51%, 61.81%, 72.98%, 70.07%, 66.74% and 73.90% respectively. Our results have demonstrated that DRBFS outperforms various methods, while maintaining interpretable rule bases

  5. Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2012-01-01

    Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

  6. Anemia predicts thromboembolic events, bleeding complications and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the RE-LY trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbrink, B D; Alings, M; Connolly, S J; Eikelboom, J; Ezekowitz, M D; Oldgren, J; Yang, S; Pongue, J; Yusuf, S; Wallentin, L; van Gilst, W H

    2015-05-01

    Anemia may predispose to thromboembolic events or bleeding in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). To investigate whether anemia is associated with thromboembolic events and bleeding in patients with AF. We retrospectively analyzed the RE-LY trial database, which randomized 18 113 patients with AF and a risk of stroke to receive dabigatran or warfarin for a median follow-up of 2 years. Cox regression analysis was used to determine whether anemia predicted cardiovascular events and bleeding complications in these patients. Anemia was present in 12% of the population at baseline, and the presence of anemia was associated with a higher risk of thromboembolic cardiovascular events, including the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-1.71) and the primary RE-LY outcome of stroke or systemic embolism (adjusted HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.12-1.78). Anemia was also associated with a higher risk of major bleeding complications (adjusted HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.87-2.46) and discontinuation of anticoagulants (adjusted HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.28-1.79). The association between anemia and outcome was similar irrespective of cardiovascular comorbidities, randomized treatment allocation, or prior use of warfarin. The incidence of events was lower in patients with transient anemia than in patients in whom anemia was sustained (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.91). Anemia is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic events, bleeding complications and mortality in anticoagulated patients with AF. These findings suggest that patients with anemia should be monitored closely during all types of anticoagulant treatment. © 2015 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  7. A comparison of six treatments for controlling mortality of keets in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was conducted to assess ways of controlling guinea keet mortality in the wet season in the Northern Region of Ghana. Seven hundred and twenty day-old local guinea keets were randomly assigned to six treatments namely, antibiotics & standard diet (AS), dewormer and standard diet (DS), antibiotics, dewormer ...

  8. Impact of appropriate empirical antibiotic treatment on recurrence and mortality in patients with bacteraemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim O; Jensen, Ulrich S; Schønheyder, Henrik C

    2017-01-01

    Background: Data on the impact of empirical antibiotic treatment (EAT) on patient outcome in a population-based setting are sparse. We assessed the association between EAT and the risk of recurrence within one year, short-term- (2-30 days) and long-term (31-365 days) mortality in a Danish cohort...

  9. Early dropout predictive factors in obesity treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Michelini, Ilaria; Falchi, Anna Giulia; Muggia, Chiara; Grecchi, Ilaria; Montagna, Elisabetta; De Silvestri, Annalisa; Tinelli, Carmine

    2014-01-01

    Diet attrition and failure of long term treatment are very frequent in obese patients. This study aimed to identify pre-treatment variables determining dropout and to customise the characteristics of those most likely to abandon the program before treatment, thus making it possible to modify the therapy to increase compliance. A total of 146 outpatients were consecutively enrolled; 73 patients followed a prescriptive diet while 73 followed a novel brief group Cognitive Behavioural Treatment (...

  10. Youth, unemployment, and male gender predict mortality in AIDS patients started on HAART in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSilva, Malini B; Merry, Stephen P; Fischer, Philip R; Rohrer, James E; Isichei, Christian O; Cha, Stephen S

    2009-01-01

    This retrospective study identifies risk factors for mortality in a cohort of HIV-positive adult patients treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Jos, Nigeria. We analyzed clinical data from a cohort of 1552 patients enrolled in a HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome treatment program and started on HAART between December 2004 and 30 April 2006. Death was our study endpoint. Patients were followed in the study until death, being lost to follow-up, or the end of data collection, 1 December 2006. Baseline patient characteristics were compared using Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for continuous variables and Pearson Chi-Square test for categorical variables to determine if certain demographic factors were associated with more rapid progression to death. The Cox proportional hazard multivariate model analysis was used to find risk factors. As of 1 December 2006, a total of 104 cases progressed to death. In addition to the expected association of CD4 count less than 50 at initiation of therapy and active tuberculosis with mortality, the patient characteristics independently associated with a more rapid progression to death after initiation of HAART were male gender, age less than 30 years old, and unemployment or unknown occupation status. Future research is needed to identify the confounding variables that may be amenable to targeted interventions aimed at ameliorating these health disparities.

  11. Outpatient treatment of acute poisonings in Oslo: poisoning pattern, factors associated with hospitalization, and mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Lund, Cathrine; Vallersnes, Odd M; Jacobsen, Dag; Ekeberg, Oivind; Hovda, Knut E

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Most patients with acute poisoning are treated as outpatients worldwide. In Oslo, these patients are treated in a physician-led outpatient clinic with limited diagnostic and treatment resources, which reduces both the costs and emergency department overcrowding. We describe the poisoning patterns, treatment, mortality, factors associated with hospitalization and follow-up at this Emergency Medical Agency (EMA, "Oslo Legevakt"), and we evaluate the safety of this current pr...

  12. Development of Imminent Mortality Predictor for Advanced Cancer (IMPAC), a Tool to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Advanced Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelson, Kerin; Lee, Donald K K; Velji, Salimah; Ma, Junchao; Lipka, Susan K; Rimar, Joan; Longley, Peter; Vega, Teresita; Perez-Irizarry, Javier; Pinker, Edieal; Lilenbaum, Rogerio

    2018-03-01

    End-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer is aggressive and costly. Oncologists inconsistently estimate life expectancy and address goals of care. Currently available prognostication tools are based on subjective clinical assessment. An objective prognostic tool could help oncologists and patients decide on a realistic plan for end-of-life care. We developed a predictive model (Imminent Mortality Predictor in Advanced Cancer [IMPAC]) for short-term mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer. Electronic health record data from 669 patients with advanced cancer who were discharged from Yale Cancer Center/Smilow Cancer Hospital were extracted. Statistical learning techniques were used to develop a tool to estimate survival probabilities. Patients were randomly split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets 20 times. We tested the predictive properties of IMPAC for mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days past the day of admission. For mortality within 90 days at a 40% sensitivity level, IMPAC has close to 60% positive predictive value. Patients estimated to have a greater than 50% chance of death within 90 days had a median survival time of 47 days. Patients estimated to have a less than 50% chance of death had a median survival of 290 days. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for IMPAC averaged greater than .70 for all time horizons tested. Estimated potential cost savings per patient was $15,413 (95% CI, $9,162 to $21,665) in 2014 constant dollars. IMPAC, a novel prognostic tool, can generate life expectancy probabilities in real time and support oncologists in counseling patients about end-of-life care. Potentially avoidable costs are significant.

  13. Mortality among drug users after discharge from inpatient treatment: an 8-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravndal, Edle; Amundsen, Ellen J

    2010-04-01

    Drug users who are leaving/completing inpatient medication-free treatment may, like drug users released from prison, have an elevated risk of dying from fatal overdoses. This is mainly explained by their low drug tolerance. Two hundred and seventy-six drug users who had been admitted to 11 inpatient facilities in Norway, were followed prospectively after discharge from treatment during an 8-year period (1998-2006). The following instruments were used: EuropASI, SCL-25 and MCMI II. Information on deaths and causes of death were obtained from the National Death Register. A total of 36 deaths were registered after discharge from treatment during the observation period, of which 24 were classified as overdose deaths. During the first 4 weeks after discharge six persons died, yielding an unadjusted excess mortality of 15.7 (rate ratio) in this period (CI 5.3-38.3). All were dropouts and all deaths were classified as opiate overdoses. There was no significant association between time in index treatment and mortality after discharge, nor did any background characteristics correlate significantly with elevated mortality shortly after discharge. The elevated risk of dying from overdose within the first 4 weeks of leaving medication-free inpatient treatment is so dramatic that preventive measures should be taken. More studies from similar inpatient programmes are needed in order to obtain systematic knowledge about determinants of overdose deaths shortly after leaving treatment, and possible preventive measures. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  15. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  16. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... of mortality (P = 0.02). Reduced Dyx also predicted cardiovascular death (P cardiovascular death (P = 0.05). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, Dyx significantly predicted mortality in patients both with and without impaired left ventricular systolic function (P

  17. The Effect of Inadequate Initial Empiric Antimicrobial Treatment on Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Bloodstream Infections: A Multi-Centre Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D Savage

    Full Text Available Hospital mortality rates are elevated in critically ill patients with bloodstream infections. Given that mortality may be even higher if appropriate treatment is delayed, we sought to determine the effect of inadequate initial empiric treatment on mortality in these patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted across 13 intensive care units in Canada. We defined inadequate initial empiric treatment as not receiving at least one dose of an antimicrobial to which the causative pathogen(s was susceptible within one day of initial blood culture. We evaluated the association between inadequate initial treatment and hospital mortality using a random effects multivariable logistic regression model. Among 1,190 patients (1,097 had bacteremia and 93 had candidemia, 476 (40% died and 266 (22% received inadequate initial treatment. Candidemic patients more often had inadequate initial empiric therapy (64.5% versus 18.8%, as well as longer delays to final culture results (4 vs 3 days and appropriate therapy (2 vs 0 days. After adjustment, there was no detectable association between inadequate initial treatment and mortality among bacteremic patients (Odds Ratio (OR: 1.02, 95% Confidence Interval (CI 0.70-1.48; however, candidemic patients receiving inadequate treatment had nearly three times the odds of death (OR: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.05-7.99. Inadequate initial empiric antimicrobial treatment was not associated with increased mortality in bacteremic patients, but was an important risk factor in the subgroup of candidemic patients. Further research is warranted to improve early diagnostic and risk prediction methods in candidemic patients.

  18. Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaba, Ron C; Couture, Patrick M; Bui, James T; Knuttinen, M Grace; Walzer, Natasha M; Kallwitz, Eric R; Berkes, Jamie L; Cotler, Scott J

    2013-03-01

    To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores. Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Iron Deficiency and Anemia Predict Mortality in Patients with Tuberculosis123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isanaka, Sheila; Mugusi, Ferdinand; Urassa, Willy; Willett, Walter C.; Bosch, Ronald J.; Villamor, Eduardo; Spiegelman, Donna; Duggan, Christopher; Fawzi, Wafaie W.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have documented a high prevalence of anemia among tuberculosis (TB) patients and anemia at TB diagnosis has been associated with an increased risk of death. However, little is known about the factors contributing to the development of TB-associated anemia and their importance in TB disease progression. Data from a randomized clinical trial of micronutrient supplementation in patients with pulmonary TB in Tanzania were analyzed. Repeated measures of anemia with iron deficiency, anemia without iron deficiency, and iron deficiency without anemia were assessed as risk factors for treatment failure, TB recurrence, and mortality. The prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin iron deficiency (mean corpuscular volume , 80 fL). We found no evidence of an association between anemia (with or without iron deficiency) or iron deficiency without anemia at baseline and the risk of treatment failure at 1 mo after initiation. Anemia without iron deficiency was associated with an independent, 4-fold increased risk of TB recurrence [adjusted RR = 4.10 (95% CI = 1.88, 8.91); P Iron deficiency and anemia (with and without iron deficiency) were associated with a 2- to nearly 3-fold independent increase in the risk of death [adjusted RR for iron deficiency without anemia = 2.89 (95% CI = 1.53, 5.47); P = 0.001; anemia without iron deficiency = 2.72 (95% CI = 1.50, 4.93); P = 0.001; iron deficiency anemia = 2.13 (95% CI = 1.10, 4.11); P = 0.02]. Efforts to identify and address the conditions contributing to TB-associated anemia, including iron deficiency, could play an important role in reducing morbidity and mortality in areas heavily affected by TB. PMID:22190024

  20. Predictive factors for mortality in patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: impact on outcome of host, microorganism and therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasch, O; Camoez, M; Dominguez, M A; Padilla, B; Pintado, V; Almirante, B; Molina, J; Lopez-Medrano, F; Ruiz, E; Martinez, J A; Bereciartua, E; Rodriguez-Lopez, F; Fernandez-Mazarrasa, C; Goenaga, M A; Benito, N; Rodriguez-Baño, J; Espejo, E; Pujol, M

    2013-11-01

    Mortality related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bloodstream infection (BSI) remains high, despite changes in the epidemiology. To analyze the current predictive factors for mortality we conducted a prospective study in a large cohort of patients with MRSA-BSI from 21 Spanish hospitals. Epidemiology, clinical data, therapy and outcome were recorded. All MRSA strains were analysed, including susceptibility to antibiotics and molecular characterization. Vancomycin MICs (V-MIC) were tested by the E-test and microdilution methods. Time until death was the dependent variable in a Cox regression analysis. Overall, 579 episodes were included. Acquisition was nosocomial in 59% and vascular catheter was the most frequent source (38%). A dominant PFGE genotype was found in 368 (67%) isolates, which belonged to Clonal Complex (CC)5 and carried SCCmecIV and agr2. Microdilution V-MIC50 and V-MIC90 were 0.7 and 1.0 mg/L, respectively. Initial therapy was appropriate in 66% of episodes. Overall mortality was observed in 179 (32%) episodes. The Cox-regression analysis identified age >70 years (HR 1.88), previous fatal disease (HR 2.16), Pitt score >1 (HR 3.45), high-risk source (HR 1.85) and inappropriate initial treatment (HR 1.39) as independent predictive factors for mortality. CC5 and CC22 (HR 0.52 and 0.45) were associated with significantly lower mortality rates than CC8. V-MIC ≥1.5 did not have a significant impact on mortality, regardless of the method used to assess it. © 2012 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2012 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  1. Circulating Markers of Endothelial Dysfunction Interact With Proteinuria in Predicting Mortality in Renal Transplant Recipients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ree, Rutger M.; Oterdoom, Leendert H.; de Vries, Aiko P.J.; Homan van der Heide, Jaap J.; van Son, Willem J.; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Reinold O.B.; Bakker, Stephan J L

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Proteinuria is associated with endothelial dysfunction (ED) and increased mortality. We investigated whether urinary protein excretion (UPE) is correlated with markers of ED and whether these markers affect the association of proteinuria with mortality in renal transplant recipients

  2. Circulating markers of endothelial dysfunction interact with proteinuria in predicting mortality in renal transplant recipients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ree, Rutger M.; Oterdoom, Leendert H.; de Vries, Aiko P. J.; Homan van der Heide, Jaap J.; van Son, Willem J.; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Reinold O. B.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.

    2008-01-01

    Proteinuria is associated with endothelial dysfunction (ED) and increased mortality. We investigated whether urinary protein excretion (UPE) is correlated with markers of ED and whether these markers affect the association of proteinuria with mortality in renal transplant recipients (RTR). Six

  3. Prevalence of multiple organ dysfunction in the pediatric intensive care unit: Pediatric Risk of Mortality III versus Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction scores for mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamshary, Azza Abd Elkader El; Sherbini, Seham Awad El; Elgebaly, HebatAllah Fadel; Amin, Samah Abdelkrim

    2017-01-01

    To assess the frequency of primary multiple organ failure and the role of sepsis as a causative agent in critically ill pediatric patients; and calculate and evaluate the accuracy of the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) scores to predict the outcomes of critically ill children. Retrospective study, which evaluated data from patients admitted from January to December 2011 in the pediatric intensive care unit of the Children's Hospital of the University of Cairo. Out of 237 patients in the study, 72% had multiple organ dysfunctions, and 45% had sepsis with multiple organ dysfunctions. The mortality rate in patients with multiple organ dysfunction was 73%. Independent risk factors for death were mechanical ventilation and neurological failure [OR: 36 and 3.3, respectively]. The PRISM III score was more accurate than the PELOD score in predicting death, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow X2 (Chi-square value) of 7.3 (df = 8, p = 0.5). The area under the curve was 0.723 for PRISM III and 0.78 for PELOD. A multiple organ dysfunctions was associated with high mortality. Sepsis was the major cause. Pneumonia, diarrhea and central nervous system infections were the major causes of sepsis. PRISM III had a better calibration than the PELOD for prognosis of the patients, despite the high frequency of the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome.

  4. Early citalopram treatment increases mortality due to left ventricular rupture in mice after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Anna; Saxon, Veronica-Maria; Popp, Sandy; Lehmann, Marc; Mathes, Denise; Pachel, Christina; Hofmann, Ulrich; Ertl, Georg; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Frantz, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Both anxiety and depression are common and independent outcome predictors in patients after myocardial infarction (MI). However, it is unclear whether and how anti-depressants influence remodeling after MI. Thus, we studied cardiac remodeling in mice after experimental MI under treatment with citalopram, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor widely used as antidepressant. Treatment with citalopram versus saline was applied via osmotic pump after coronary artery ligation. Two different groups were studied: early treatment during the healing phase (starting immediately after surgery), or late treatment in the remodeling phase (starting 7days after surgery). Late treatment did not change mortality or left ventricular remodeling after MI over the period of 6weeks. However, in the early treatment group mortality was increased in citalopram-treated mice predominantly due to left ventricle rupture without differences in infarct size. Remodeling 4weeks after MI was not altered by the treatment. Neither infiltration of inflammatory cells, as determined by FACS analysis of myocardial tissue, nor mRNA-expression of inflammatory cytokines changed 3days after MI in the early treatment group. However, extracellular matrix functioning was altered: There was a significant increase of MMP13 in citalopram treated animals after MI. Pretreatment with the MMP inhibitor PD 166793 prevented left ventricular ruptures and demonstrated a tendency to improved survival after citalopram treatment. Treatment with antidepressant citalopram in the acute but not in the late phase after MI significantly increased mortality in mice by disturbing early healing. Pharmacological MMP inhibition partially reversed the deleterious effects of citalopram. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Development and Validation of a Score to Predict Mortality in Children Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Respiratory Failure: Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue With Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailly, David K; Reeder, Ron W; Zabrocki, Luke A; Hubbard, Anna M; Wilkes, Jacob; Bratton, Susan L; Thiagarajan, Ravi R

    2017-01-01

    Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic score for predicting mortality at the time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation initiation for children with respiratory failure. Preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mortality prediction is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes and counseling families. Multivariable logistic regression of a large international cohort of pediatric extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients. Multi-institutional data. Prognostic score development: A total of 4,352 children more than 7 days to less than 18 years old, with an initial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation run for respiratory failure reported to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization's data registry during 2001-2013 were used for derivation (70%) and validation (30%). Bidirectional stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with mortality. Retained variables were assigned a score based on the odds of mortality with higher scores indicating greater mortality. External validation was accomplished using 2,007 patients from the Pediatric Health Information System dataset. None. The Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction score included mode of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation mechanical ventilation more than 14 days; preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation severity of hypoxia; primary pulmonary diagnostic categories including, asthma, aspiration, respiratory syncytial virus, sepsis-induced respiratory failure, pertussis, and "other"; and preextracorporeal membrane oxygenation comorbid conditions of cardiac arrest, cancer, renal and liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for internal and external validation datasets were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.71) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69). Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction is a validated tool for predicting in

  6. Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarinara, Alireza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Kamali, Koorosh; Mohammad, Kazem; Shahnazari, Parisa; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. Infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. Prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. Because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, this paper reviewed previous studies for catching a general concept in applicability of the models. Methods: This study was conducted as a systematic review at Avicenna Research Institute in 2015. Six data bases were searched based on WHO definitions and MESH key words. Papers about prediction models in infertility were evaluated. Results: Eighty one papers were eligible for the study. Papers covered years after 1986 and studies were designed retrospectively and prospectively. IVF prediction models have more shares in papers. Most common predictors were age, duration of infertility, ovarian and tubal problems. Conclusion: Prediction model can be clinically applied if the model can be statistically evaluated and has a good validation for treatment success. To achieve better results, the physician and the couples’ needs estimation for treatment success rate were based on history, the examination and clinical tests. Models must be checked for theoretical approach and appropriate validation. The privileges for applying the prediction models are the decrease in the cost and time, avoiding painful treatment of patients, assessment of treatment approach for physicians and decision making for health managers. The selection of the approach for designing and using these models is inevitable. PMID:27141461

  7. Mortality prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia: PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is the answer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin

    2017-05-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO 2 /FiO 2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia confirmed a similar pattern and PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor of hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia in predicting mortality and ICU admission. When PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250 or peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia. © 2015 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavem, Knut; Hoel, Henrik; Skjaker, Stein Arve; Haagensen, Rolf

    2017-01-01

    This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II model. Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c -statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic. The CCI was complete (n=959) when calculated from chart review, but less complete from administrative data (n=839). Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596-0.714). The c -statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit. The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement and predicted 30-day and 1-year mortality in ICU patients. CCI combined with age, sex, and type of admission predicted mortality almost as well as the physiology-based SAPS II.

  9. Short-term mortality, readmission, and recurrence in treatment of acute diverticulitis with abscess formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Rasmus; Andresen, Kristoffer; Burcharth, Jakob

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim of the study was to investigate short-term mortality, readmission, and recurrence in a national cohort of patients with Hinchey Ib-II diverticulitis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort-investigation was conducted using a database consisting of the entire Danish population (n = 6......,641,672) in year 2000-2012, formed by linking the Danish Registers. Patients admitted with acute Hinchey Ib-II diverticulitis were identified from ICD-10 discharge codes and stratified according to treatment into an operative, drainage, and antibiotics group. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality from admission......, secondary outcomes were mortality, readmission, and recurrence within 30 days post-discharge. The study was reported using RECORD guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 3148 eligible patients were identified. The cohort had a mean age of 65.1 year, 25.6 % had previously been admitted with diverticulitis, and 48...

  10. Trends in mortality following mechanical thrombectomy for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villwock, Mark R; Padalino, David J; Deshaies, Eric M

    2016-05-01

    Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke has been growing in popularity while the therapeutic benefit of MT has been increasingly debated. Our objective was to examine national trends in mortality following MT. We analyzed the National Inpatient Sample (2012) and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2008-2011) for patients with a primary diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke that received MT. Temporal trends in mortality were examined using Spearman's rank correlation. To account for confounding factors, mortality was further analyzed in binary logistic regression. Hospitals performing MT comprised 8% of all hospitals treating ischemic stroke. The percentage of stroke cases treated with MT increased from 0.6% of cases in 2008 to 1.1% in 2012, totaling 16 307 MT cases in a 5 year period. Inhospital mortality decreased over the study period from 25.4% in 2008 to 16.1% in 2012 (r=-0.081, ptrend is increasing. Mortality following MT has been showing a steady decline over the past 5 years. This may be a result of a learning curve, improved patient selection, and/or device improvements. Randomized trials remain essential to evaluate the potential benefit of endovascular devices and identify the most appropriate patients. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  11. Improving Predictions of Tree Drought Mortality in the Community Land Model Using Hydraulic Physiology Theory and its Effects on Carbon Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNellis, B.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Tree mortality due to drought is predicted to have increasing impacts on ecosystem structure and function during the 21st century. Models can attempt to predict which forests are most at risk from drought, but novel environments may preclude analysis that relies on past observations. The inclusion of more mechanistic detail may reduce uncertainty in predictions, but can also compound model complexity, especially in global models. The Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), itself a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), has recently integrated cohort-based demography into its dynamic vegetation component and is in the process of coupling this demography to a model of plant hydraulic physiology (FATES-Hydro). Previous treatment of drought stress and plant mortality within CLM has been relatively broad, but a detailed hydraulics module represents a key step towards accurate mortality prognosis. Here, we examine the structure of FATES-Hydro with respect to two key physiological attributes: tissue osmotic potentials and embolism refilling. Specifically, we ask how FATES-Hydro captures mechanistic realism within each attribute and how much support there is within the physiological literature for its further elaboration within the model structure. Additionally, connections to broader aspects of carbon metabolism within FATES are explored to better resolve emergent consequences of drought stress on ecosystem function and tree demographics. An on-going field experiment in managed stands of Pinus ponderosa and mixed conifers is assessed for model parameterization and performance across PNW forests, with important implications for future forest management strategy.

  12. An increase in overdose mortality during the first 2 weeks after entering or re-entering methadone treatment in Amsterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buster, Marcel C. A.; van Brussel, Giel H. A.; van den Brink, Wim

    2002-01-01

    AIMS: It has been suggested that starting and temporarily discontinuing methadone treatment is related to an increased risk in overdose mortality. This study describes the incidence of overdose mortality in relation to time after (re)entering or leaving treatment. DESIGN: A dynamic cohort of 5200

  13. External validation of the rotterdam computed tomography score in the prediction of mortality in severe traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose D Charry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a public health problem. It is a pathology that causes significant mortality and disability in Colombia. Different calculators and prognostic models have been developed to predict the neurological outcomes of these patients. The Rotterdam computed tomography (CT score was developed for prognostic purposes in TBI. We aimed to examine the accuracy of the prognostic discrimination and prediction of mortality of the Rotterdam CT score in a cohort of trauma patients with severe TBI in a university hospital in Colombia. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 127 patients with severe TBI treated in a regional trauma center in Colombia over a 2-year period. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used. The discriminatory power of the score, its accuracy, and precision were assessed by logistic regression and as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Shapiro–Wilk, Chi-square, and Wilcoxon tests were used to compare the real outcomes in the cohort against the predicted outcomes. Results: The median age of the patient cohort was 33 years, and 84.25% were male. The median injury severity score was 25, the median Glasgow Coma Scale motor score was 3, the basal cisterns were closed in 46.46% of the patients, and a midline shift of >5 mm was seen in 50.39%. The 6-month mortality was 29.13%, and the Rotterdam CT score predicted a mortality of 26% (P < 0.0001 (area under the curve: 0.825; 95% confidence interval: 0.745–0.903. Conclusions: The Rotterdam CT score predicted mortality at 6 months in patients with severe head trauma in a university hospital in Colombia. The Rotterdam CT score is useful for predicting early death and the prognosis of patients with TBI.

  14. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS BACTERIAL TREATMENTS OVER A TWO-WEEK PERIOD ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel P. Molloy

    2001-07-17

    These experiments indicated that in waters at 23 C the window of opportunity to kill zebra mussels with bacterial strain CL0145A is limited to the first two days of treatment. Treatments beyond two days will not increase mortality.

  15. Change in Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Mortality in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease from the Heart and Soul Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Goglin

    Full Text Available Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated.In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened. We used Cox survival models to evaluate 5-year change in telomere length as a predictor of mortality.During an average of 4.2 years follow-up, there were 149 deaths. Change in telomere length was inversely predictive of all-cause mortality. Using the continuous variable of telomere length change, each standard deviation (325 base pair greater increase in telomere length was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94; p = 0.01, adjusted for age, sex, waist to hip ratio, exercise capacity, LV ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and year 5 telomere length. Mortality occurred in 39% (79/203 of patients who experienced telomere shortening, 22% (45/203 of patients whose telomere length was maintained, and 12% (25/202 of patients who experienced telomere lengthening (p<0.001. As compared with patients whose telomere length was maintained, those who experienced telomere lengthening were 56% less likely to die (HR 0.44, 95% CI, 0.23-0.87.In patients with coronary heart disease, an increase in leukocyte telomere length over 5 years is associated with decreased mortality.

  16. Hepatitis B prevalence and influence on HIV treatment outcome and mortality in the Chilean AIDS Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Knapp, Ralf; Cortes, Claudia P; Saavedra, Felipe; Wolff, Marcelo; Weitzel, Thomas

    2013-10-01

    To analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection and its influence on mortality and treatment outcome within a large AIDS cohort in Chile. Clinical and epidemiological data from the Chilean AIDS Cohort were retrospectively analyzed. Adult patients tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) during the time period of October 2001 to October 2007 were included. Of 5115 cohort patients, 1907 met the inclusion criteria. The prevalence of HBV co-infection was 8.4%. Overall mortality rates were 2.15 and 1.77 per 100 person-years for HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative HIV patients, respectively, with a mortality rate ratio of 1.22 (95% confidence interval 0.58-2.54). Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression analysis did not show significant differences between the groups. Virological and immunological responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART) were not influenced by HBsAg status, but in co-infected patients, initial ART was more frequently changed. The prevalence of hepatitis B co-infection was 8.4%, indicating a markedly elevated hepatitis B risk compared to the general population in Chile. Neither treatment outcome nor overall mortality was influenced by hepatitis B co-infection. Still, patients with hepatitis B co-infection had less stable ART regimens, which might be related to a higher risk of hepatotoxic drug effects. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Mortality among patients with ankylosing spondylitis after a single treatment course with x-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darby, S.C.; Doll, R.; Smith, P.G.

    1985-01-01

    Court Brown and Doll identified over 14,000 patients with ankylosing spondylitis who had been treated with one or more courses of x-irradiation from 1935 to 1954 at one of 87 radiotherapy centers in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The first reports from this study analyzed mortality among these patients from leukemia and other causes, particularly cancer, but these analyses included many patients who had been treated with x-rays for their spondylitis more than once. This complicated the interpretation of the late effects of the treatment on mortality, as it was not clear to what extent the subsequent treatments contributed to the excess of deaths that persisted for many years after the first treatment. Smith and Doll (1982) avoided this difficulty by examining the death rate from leukemia and other radiation-induced cancers at different times after a single course of treatment. A comparison of the mortality of this group with the mortality of Japanese atomic bomb survivors revealed good agreement between the two studies, thus increasing confidence in the belief that both studies are giving sensible estimates of the risk of cancer from high doses of radiation. The follow-up of those spondylitic patients who received a single course of treatment only has recently been extended until the end of 1982, that is, for an additional 13 years. A further 1406 patients are now known to have died, including an additional 335 deaths for which the certified cause is cancer. Detailed results of this further follow-up will be presented

  18. Reassessment of the predictive value of the Forrest classification for peptic ulcer rebleeding and mortality: can classification be simplified?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, N.L. de; Oijen, M.G.H. van; Kessels, K.; Hemmink, M.; Weusten, B.L.; Timmer, R.; Hazen, W.L.; Lelyveld, N. van; Vermeijden, R.R.; Curvers, W.L.; Baak, B.C.; Verburg, R.; Bosman, J.H.; Wijkerslooth, L.R. de; Rooij, J van; Venneman, N.G.; Pennings, M.C.P.; Hee, K. van; Scheffer, B.C.; Eijk, R.L. van; Meiland, R.; Siersema, P.D.; Bredenoord, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: This study aimed to reassess whether the Forrest classification is still useful for the prediction of rebleeding and mortality in peptic ulcer bleedings and, based on this, whether the classification could be simplified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective registry data on

  19. Reassessment of the predictive value of the Forrest classification for peptic ulcer rebleeding and mortality: can classification be simplified?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, Nicolette L.; van Oijen, Martijn G. H.; Kessels, Koen; Hemmink, Maarten; Weusten, Bas L. A. M.; Timmer, Robin; Hazen, Wouter L.; van Lelyveld, Niels; Vermeijden, Reinoud R.; Curvers, Wouter L.; Baak, Bert C.; Verburg, Robert; Bosman, Joukje H.; de Wijkerslooth, Laetitia R. H.; de Rooij, Janne; Venneman, Niels G.; Pennings, Marieke; van Hee, Koen; Scheffer, Bob C. H.; van Eijk, Rachel L.; Meiland, Ruby; Siersema, Peter D.; Bredenoord, Albert J.

    2014-01-01

    Background and study aims: This study aimed to reassess whether the Forrest classification is still useful for the prediction of rebleeding and mortality in peptic ulcer bleedings and, based on this, whether the classification could be simplified. Patients and methods: Prospective registry data on

  20. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Anant; Shrestha, Prajowl; Guleria, Randeep; Pandey, Ravindra Mohan; Wig, Naveet

    2015-01-01

    Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU) were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III), and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males). The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score) based on SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores and hemoglobin has greater predictive power than these scoring methods individually. Routine use of critical illness scoring systems and a composite mortality prediction formula may provide useful early prognostic information in sepsis/severe sepsis.

  1. Discovery and integration of univariate patterns from daily individual organ-failure scores for intensive care mortality prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toma, Tudor; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Bosman, Robert-Jan

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The current established mortality predictive models in the intensive care rely only on patient information gathered within the first 24 hours of admission. Recent research demonstrated the added prognostic value residing in the sequential organ-failure assessment (SOFA) score which

  2. Plasma glucose and not hemoglobin or renal function predicts mortality in patients with STEMI complicated with cardiogenic shock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vis, Marije M.; Engström, Annemarie E.; Sjauw, Krischan D.; Tjong, Fleur Vy; Baan, Jan; Koch, Karel T.; de Vries, Hans J.; Tijssen, Jan Gp; de Winter, Robbert J.; Piek, Jan J.; Henriques, José Ps

    2010-01-01

    Objective To assess the predictive value of three biomarkers for mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with cardiogenic shock. Background STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock accounts for the majority of STEMI related deaths. Patients with STEMI and hyperglycemia, anemia

  3. Cardioembolic but Not Other Stroke Subtypes Predict Mortality Independent of Stroke Severity at Presentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latha Ganti Stead

    2011-01-01

    Results. The study population consisted of 500 patients who resided in the local county or the surrounding nine-county area. No patients were lost to followup. Two hundred and sixty one (52.2% were male, and the mean age at presentation was 73.7 years (standard deviation, SD = 14.3. Subtypes were as follows: large artery atherosclerosis 97 (19.4%, cardioembolic 144 (28.8%, small vessel disease 75 (15%, other causes 19 (3.8%, and unknown 165 (33%. One hundred and sixty patients died: 69 within the first 30 days, 27 within 31–90 days, 29 within 91–365 days, and 35 after 1 year. Low 90-, 180-, and 360-day survival was seen in cardioembolic strokes (67.1%, 65.5%, and 58.2%, resp., followed for cryptogenic strokes (78.0%, 75.3%, and 71.1%. Interestingly, when looking into the cryptogenic category, those with insufficient information to assign a stroke subtype had the lowest survival estimate (57.7% at 90 days, 56.1% at 180 days, and 51.2% at 1 year. Conclusion. Cardioembolic ischemic stroke subtype determined by TOAST criteria predicts long-term mortality, even after adjusting for age and stroke severity.

  4. Comparison of Charlson comorbidity index with SAPS and APACHE scores for prediction of mortality following intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christensen S

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Steffen Christensen1, Martin Berg Johansen1, Christian Fynbo Christiansen1, Reinhold Jensen2, Stanley Lemeshow1,31Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Department of Intensive Care, Skejby Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USABackground: Physiology-based severity of illness scores are often used for risk adjustment in observational studies of intensive care unit (ICU outcome. However, the complexity and time constraints of these scoring systems may limit their use in administrative databases. Comorbidity is a main determinant of ICU outcome, and comorbidity scores can be computed based on data from most administrative databases. However, limited data exist on the performance of comorbidity scores in predicting mortality of ICU patients.Objectives: To examine the performance of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI alone and in combination with other readily available administrative data and three physiology-based scores (acute physiology and chronic health evaluations [APACHE] II, simplified acute physiology score [SAPS] II, and SAPS III in predicting short- and long-term mortality following intensive care.Methods: For all adult patients (n = 469 admitted to a tertiary university–affiliated ICU in 2007, we computed APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III scores based on data from medical records. Data on CCI score age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy, primary diagnosis, and complete follow-up for 1-year mortality was obtained from administrative databases. We computed goodness-of-fit statistics and c-statistics (area under ROC [receiver operating characteristic] curve as measures of model calibration (ability to predict mortality proportions over classes of risk and discrimination (ability to discriminate among the patients

  5. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Anant; Shrestha, Prajowl; Guleria, Randeep; Pandey, Ravindra Mohan; Wig, Naveet

    2015-01-01

    Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU) were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III), and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males). The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01). Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01). Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively). There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score) based on SAPS II, SAPS III, and

  6. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anant Mohan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III, and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males. The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01. Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01. Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score based on SAPS II

  7. Latency to treatment of status epilepticus is associated with mortality and functional status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jocelyn Y

    2016-11-15

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a life-threatening neurologic emergency. Despite advances in management, in-hospital mortality remains unchanged. This is partly due to the pharmacoresistance which develops the longer that seizures persist. Therefore, rapid antiseizure medication (ASM) administration may represent a beneficial treatment option. The purpose of this study was to determine: 1) whether in-hospital mortality is reduced with shorter latencies to initial treatment of SE with an ASM (LTSE); and 2) the critical time frame during which LTSE is associated with reduced in-hospital mortality. This was a retrospective, single-center study of adults diagnosed with SE between 1/1/2005 and 10/31/2012. Demographic characteristics included seizure history, etiology, semiology, and duration. Subjects were assigned to LTSE groups at the time frames of 5, 10, 30 and 60min. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, with poor functional status (mRS 3-6) as a secondary measure. Pearson's chi-square, Mann-Whitney-U, two-sample-t-tests, and binary logistic regression analysis were used as appropriate, with p30min demonstrated increased risk of mortality (OR 2.06, CI 1.01-4.17, p=0.046) and poor functional status (OR 2.48, CI 1.05-5.85, p=0.038) compared to LTSE≤30min. Increased mortality risk remained after adjusting for SE duration (OR 2.07, CI 1.01-4.26, p=0.047) and nonconvulsive seizures (OR 2.28, CI 1.08-4.80, p=0.03). Compared to subjects treated within 60min, those treated after 60min were at increased risk of poor functional status, regardless of the presence of nonconvulsive seizures (OR 2.96, CI 1.14-7.73, p=0.026). In addition, when acute symptomatic SE was stratified by cardiac versus non-cardiac etiologies, subjects with non-cardiac acute symptomatic SE demonstrated worse functional outcome when treated after 60min (OR 7.20, CI 1.13-46.07, p=0.037). Treatment of SE within 30min of onset is associated with reduced risk of in-hospital mortality and poor

  8. Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-01-31

    WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

  9. Epidermal growth factor treatment decreases mortality and is associated with improved gut integrity in sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Jessica A; Clark, Andrew T; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Buchman, Timothy G; Coopersmith, Craig M

    2008-07-01

    Epidermal growth factor (EGF) is a cytoprotective peptide that has healing effects on the intestinal mucosa. We sought to determine whether systemic administration of EGF after the onset of sepsis improved intestinal integrity and decreased mortality. FVB/N mice were subjected to either sham laparotomy or 2 x 23 cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Septic mice were further randomized to receive injection of either 150 microg kg(-1) d(-1) (i.p.) EGF or 0.9% saline (i.p.). Circulating EGF levels were decreased after CLP compared with sham animals but were unaffected by giving exogenous EGF treatment. In contrast, intestinal EGF levels increased after CLP and were further augmented by exogenous EGF treatment. Intestinal EGF receptor was increased after CLP, whether assayed by immunohistochemistry, real-time polymerase chain reaction, or Western blot, and exogenous EGF treatment decreased intestinal EGF receptor. Villus length decreased 2-fold between sham and septic animals, and EGF treatment resulted in near total restitution of villus length. Sepsis decreased intestinal proliferation and increased intestinal apoptosis. This was accompanied by increased expression of the proapoptotic proteins Bid and Fas-associated death domain, as well as the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21 cip1/waf Epidermal growth factor treatment after the onset of sepsis restored both proliferation and apoptosis to levels seen in sham animals and normalized expression of Bid, Fas-associated death domain, and p21 cip1/waf . To determine whether improvements in gut homeostasis were associated with a decrease in sepsis-induced mortality, septic mice with or without EGF treatment after CLP were followed 7 days for survival. Mortality decreased from 60% to 30% in mice treated with EGF after the onset of sepsis (P < 0.05). Thus, EGF may be a potential therapeutic agent for the treatment of sepsis in part due to its ability to protect intestinal integrity.

  10. Mortality after Inpatient Treatment for Severe Pneumonia in Children: a Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngari, Moses M; Fegan, Greg; Mwangome, Martha K; Ngama, Mwanajuma J; Mturi, Neema; Scott, John Anthony Gerard; Bauni, Evasius; Nokes, David James; Berkley, James A

    2017-05-01

    Although pneumonia is a leading cause of inpatient mortality, deaths may also occur after discharge from hospital. However, prior studies have been small, in selected groups or did not fully evaluate risk factors, particularly malnutrition and HIV. We determined 1-year post-discharge mortality and risk factors among children diagnosed with severe pneumonia. A cohort study of children aged 1-59 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital with severe pneumonia (2007-12). The primary outcome was death pneumonia, 1041 (25%) had severe acute malnutrition (SAM), 267 (6.4%) had a positive HIV antibody test, and 364 (8.7%) died in hospital. After discharge, 2279 KHDSS-resident children were followed up; 70 (3.1%) died during 2163 child-years: 32 (95% confidence interval (CI) 26, 41) deaths per 1000 child years. Post-discharge mortality was greater after admission for severe pneumonia than for other diagnoses, hazard ratio 2.5 (95% CI 1.2, 5.3). Malnutrition, HIV status, age and prolonged hospitalisation, but not signs of pneumonia severity, were associated with post-discharge mortality. Fifty-two per cent (95% CI 37%, 63%) of post-discharge deaths were attributable to low mid-upper arm circumference and 11% (95% CI 3.3%, 18%) to a positive HIV test. Admission with severe pneumonia is an important marker of vulnerability. Risk stratification and better understanding of the mechanisms underlying post-discharge mortality, especially for undernourished children, are needed to reduce mortality after treatment for pneumonia. © 2017 The Authors. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p estresse físico na doença arterial coronária, mas a predição de mortalidade e de eventos cardíacos maiores, em pacientes com teste ergométrico positivo para isquemia miocárdica, é limitada. Objetivo: Avaliar a predição de mortalidade e de eventos cardíacos maiores pela ecocardiografia com estresse f

  12. Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

    2017-07-15

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

  13. Prolonged QTc interval predicts mortality in patients with Type 1 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, P; Breum, L; Major-Pedersen, A

    2001-01-01

    AIMS: To evaluate prolonged QTc interval and QT dispersion as predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for well-established risk factors in Type 1 diabetic patients. METHODS: From a cohort of all adult Type 1 diabetic patients, duration of diabetes >or= 5 years...... was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: QTc prolongation, but not increased QT dispersion, is an independent marker of increased mortality in patients with Type 1 diabetes mellitus....

  14. The Effect on mortality of fluconazole or echinocandins treatment in candidemia in internal medicine wards [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco G De Rosa

    Full Text Available The incidence of candidemia has increased over the past two decades, with an increased number of cases in Internal Medicine and a prevalence ranging from 24% to 57%. This single-center retrospective study was performed to evaluate the epidemiology and the risk factors associated with mortality of candidemia in patients admitted to Internal Medicine wards (IMWs of the City of Health and Sciences, Molinette Hospital, Turin, from January 2004 to December 2012. For each patient, demographic, clinical and microbiological data were collected. A case of candidemia was defined as a patient with at least one blood culture positive for Candida spp. Amongst 670 episodes of candidemia, 274 (41% episodes occurred in IMWs. The mortality was 39% and was associated at multivariate analysis with sepsis, cirrhosis and neurologic diseases, whilst removal of central venous catheter ≤48h was significantly associated with survival. In the 77 patients treated with early antifungal therapy the mortality was 29% and was not significantly different with caspofungin or fluconazole, whilst in patients with definitive therapy the mortality was significantly lower with echinocandins compared to fluconazole (11.7% Vs. 39%; p=0.0289, a finding confirmed by multivariate analysis. The mortality was significantly associated with sepsis, cirrhosis and neurologic diseases, whilst CVC removal ≤48h was associated with survival. In patients with early therapy, fluconazole or caspofungin were equally effective. However, echinocandins were significantly more effective as definitive treatment, a finding not explained by differences in treatment delays. Further studies are needed to understand the full potential of these different therapeutic strategies in IMWs.

  15. The Effect on Mortality of Fluconazole or Echinocandins Treatment in Candidemia in Internal Medicine Wards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippini, Claudia; Raviolo, Stefania; Fossati, Lucina; Montrucchio, Chiara; Aldieri, Chiara; Petrolo, Alessia; Cavallo, Rossana; Di Perri, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    The incidence of candidemia has increased over the past two decades, with an increased number of cases in Internal Medicine and a prevalence ranging from 24% to 57%. This single-center retrospective study was performed to evaluate the epidemiology and the risk factors associated with mortality of candidemia in patients admitted to Internal Medicine wards (IMWs) of the City of Health and Sciences, Molinette Hospital, Turin, from January 2004 to December 2012. For each patient, demographic, clinical and microbiological data were collected. A case of candidemia was defined as a patient with at least one blood culture positive for Candida spp. Amongst 670 episodes of candidemia, 274 (41%) episodes occurred in IMWs. The mortality was 39% and was associated at multivariate analysis with sepsis, cirrhosis and neurologic diseases, whilst removal of central venous catheter ≤48h was significantly associated with survival. In the 77 patients treated with early antifungal therapy the mortality was 29% and was not significantly different with caspofungin or fluconazole, whilst in patients with definitive therapy the mortality was significantly lower with echinocandins compared to fluconazole (11.7% Vs. 39%; p=0.0289), a finding confirmed by multivariate analysis. The mortality was significantly associated with sepsis, cirrhosis and neurologic diseases, whilst CVC removal ≤48h was associated with survival. In patients with early therapy, fluconazole or caspofungin were equally effective. However, echinocandins were significantly more effective as definitive treatment, a finding not explained by differences in treatment delays. Further studies are needed to understand the full potential of these different therapeutic strategies in IMWs. PMID:25938486

  16. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better

  17. Association of Radical Local Treatment with Mortality in Men with Very High-risk Prostate Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stattin, Pär; Sandin, Fredrik; Thomsen, Frederik Birkebæk

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend androgen deprivation therapy only for men with very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa), but there is little evidence to support this stance. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between radical local treatment and mortality in men with very high-risk PCa...... in men with very high-risk PCa for whom such treatment has been considered ineffective. PATIENT SUMMARY: Men with very high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed and treated in units with the highest exposure to surgery or radiotherapy had a substantially lower mortality.......BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend androgen deprivation therapy only for men with very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa), but there is little evidence to support this stance. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between radical local treatment and mortality in men with very high-risk PCa....... DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Semiecologic study of men aged high-risk PCa (local clinical stage T4 and/or prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level 50-200ng/ml, any N, and M0). Men with locally advanced PCa (local...

  18. Plasma concentration of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lajer, Maria Stenkil; Tarnow, Lise; Jorsal, Anders

    2008-01-01

    adjustment for well-known progression promoters, including baseline GFR, the HR (adjusted) was 1.85 (95% CI 0.99-3.46, P = 0.055) for ESRD comparing upper and lower median ADMA levels. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma ADMA levels predict fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events in patients with type 1 diabetic......OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) levels are predictive of cardiovascular events, decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and all-cause mortality in type 1 diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We...... after adjustment for conventional CVD risk factors including baseline GFR (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for elevated ADMA 2.05 [95% CI 1.31-3.20], P = 0.002). Furthermore, elevated ADMA levels predicted an increased rate of decline in GFR, development of ESRD, and all-cause mortality (P

  19. High mortality during tuberculosis treatment does not indicate long diagnostic delays in Vietnam: a cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sy Dinh N

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Delay in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment initiation may increase disease severity and mortality. In evaluations of tuberculosis control programmes high fatality rates during tuberculosis treatment, are used as an indicator of long delays in low HIV-prevalence settings. However, data for this presumed association between delay and fatality are lacking. We assessed the association between diagnostic delay and mortality of new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Vietnam. Methods Follow-up of a patient cohort included in a survey of diagnostic delay in 70 randomly selected districts. Data on diagnosis and treatment were extracted from routine registers. Patients who had died during the course of treatment were compared to those with reported cure, completed treatment or failure (survivors. Results Complete data were available for 1881/2093 (89.9% patients, of whom 82 (4.4% had died. Fatality was 4.5% for patients with ≤ 4 weeks delay, 5.0% for 5- ≤ 8 weeks delay (aOR 1.11, 95%CI 0.67–1.84 and 3.2% for > 9 weeks delay (aOR 0.69, 95%CI 0.37–1.30. Fatality tended to decline with increasing delay but this was not significant. Fatality was not associated with median diagnostic delay at district level (Spearman's rho = -0.08, P = 0.5. Conclusion Diagnostic delay is not associated with treatment mortality in Vietnam at individual nor district level, suggesting that high case fatality should not be used as an indicator of long diagnostic delay in national tuberculosis programmes.

  20. Pre-treatment amygdala volume predicts electroconvulsive therapy response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Doesschate, Freek; van Eijndhoven, Philip; Tendolkar, Indira; van Wingen, Guido A.; van Waarde, Jeroen A.

    2014-01-01

    Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is an effective treatment for patients with severe depression. Knowledge on factors predicting therapeutic response may help to identify patients who will benefit most from the intervention. Based on the neuroplasticity hypothesis, volumes of the amygdala and

  1. Multi-dimensional scores to predict mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis undergoing lung transplantation assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jolene H; Al-Hejaili, Faris; Kandel, Sonja; Hirji, Alim; Shapera, Shane; Mura, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The heterogeneous progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) makes prognostication difficult and contributes to high mortality on the waitlist for lung transplantation (LTx). Multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic index [CPI], [Gender-Age-Physiology [GAP]; RIsk Stratification scorE [RISE]) demonstrated enhanced predictive power towards outcome in IPF. The lung allocation score (LAS) is a multi-dimensional tool commonly used to stratify patients assessed for LTx. We sought to investigate whether IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores predict mortality in patients with IPF assessed for LTx. The study included 302 patients with IPF who underwent a LTx assessment (2003-2014). Multi-dimensional scores were calculated. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality after assessment. LTx was considered as competing event in all analyses. At the end of the observation period, there were 134 transplants, 63 deaths, and 105 patients were alive without LTx. Multi-dimensional scores predicted mortality with accuracy similar to LAS, and superior to that of individual variables: area under the curve (AUC) for LAS was 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 86%); CPI 0.75 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 82%); GAP 0.67 (sensitivity 59%, specificity 74%); RISE 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 84%). A separate analysis conducted only in patients actively listed for LTx (n = 247; 50 deaths) yielded similar results. In patients with IPF assessed for LTx as well as in those actually listed, multi-dimensional scores predict mortality better than individual variables, and with accuracy similar to the LAS. If validated, multi-dimensional scores may serve as inexpensive tools to guide decisions on the timing of referral and listing for LTx. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Mortality among patients with ankylosing spondylitis after a single treatment course with x-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.G.; Doll, R.

    1982-01-01

    Mortality was studied in 14,111 patients with ankylosing spondylitis given a single course of x-ray treatment during 1935-54. Mortality from all causes was 66% greater than that of the general population of England and Wales. The substantial excesses of deaths from non-neoplastic conditions appeared to be associated with the disease itself rather than its treatment. A nearly fivefold excess of deaths from leukaemia and a 62% excess of deaths from cancers of sites that would have been in the radiation fields (''heavily irradiated sites'') were likely to have been a direct consequence of radiation treatment. Excess death rate from leukaemia was greatest three to five years after treatment and close to zero after 18 years. Excess of cancers of heavily irradiated sites did not become apparent until nine or more years after irradiation continuing for a further 11 years. More than 20 years after irradiation the excess risk declined but the fall was not statistically significant. The number of cancers of sites not considered to be in the radiation beams was 20% greater than expected. This excess, although not statistically significant, may have been due to scattered radiation. The risk of a radiation-induced leukaemia or other cancer was related to age at treatment time. (author)

  3. Chronic inflammation predicts long-term mortality in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, M; Gschwandtner, M E; Gamper, J; Giurgea, G-A; Kiener, H P; Perkmann, T; Koppensteiner, R; Schlager, O

    2018-03-01

    Subclinical chronic inflammation could be the driving force behind the recently revealed association between abnormal nailfold capillaries as well as autoantibodies and long-term mortality in patients with incipient Raynaud's phenomenon. Whether laboratory markers that reflect a chronic inflammatory process are directly related to mortality in Raynaud's phenomenon is not known. In total, 2958 patients with incipient Raynaud's phenomenon without previously known connective tissue disease (CTD) were enrolled. At their initial presentation, laboratory tests for C-reactive protein (CRP), leucocytes, fibrinogen and the haemoglobin concentration were obtained. In addition, nailfold capillaries and antinuclear antibodies (ANA) were assessed. Patients' mortality was recorded through a median follow-up period of 9.3 years. Baseline CRP, fibrinogen and haemoglobin concentration were associated with long-term mortality in an individual analysis of patients with incipient Raynaud's phenomenon. In a multivariable model including patients' age, nailfold capillaries and ANA, a low haemoglobin concentration remained independently related to future mortality. Amongst potential predictors for mortality in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon, a low haemoglobin concentration was most strongly related to patients' mortality risk. In Raynaud's phenomenon, laboratory markers that can be attributed to a chronic inflammatory state independently yield prognostic information in addition to the presence of abnormal nailfold capillaries and ANA. Amongst all prognostic markers, the haemoglobin concentration is most strongly related to patients' mortality in Raynaud's phenomenon. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  4. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L

    2016-01-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (peconometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data.

  5. 30-day mortality after systemic anticancer treatment for breast and lung cancer in England: a population-based, observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallington, Michael; Saxon, Emma B; Bomb, Martine; Smittenaar, Rebecca; Wickenden, Matthew; McPhail, Sean; Rashbass, Jem; Chao, David; Dewar, John; Talbot, Denis; Peake, Michael; Perren, Timothy; Wilson, Charles; Dodwell, David

    2016-09-01

    30-day mortality might be a useful indicator of avoidable harm to patients from systemic anticancer treatments, but data for this indicator are limited. The Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy (SACT) dataset collated by Public Health England allows the assessment of factors affecting 30-day mortality in a national patient population. The aim of this first study based on the SACT dataset was to establish national 30-day mortality benchmarks for breast and lung cancer patients receiving SACT in England, and to start to identify where patient care could be improved. In this population-based study, we included all women with breast cancer and all men and women with lung cancer residing in England, who were 24 years or older and who started a cycle of SACT in 2014 irrespective of the number of previous treatment cycles or programmes, and irrespective of their position within the disease trajectory. We calculated 30-day mortality after the most recent cycle of SACT for those patients. We did logistic regression analyses, adjusting for relevant factors, to examine whether patient, tumour, or treatment-related factors were associated with the risk of 30-day mortality. For each cancer type and intent, we calculated 30-day mortality rates and patient volume at the hospital trust level, and contrasted these in a funnel plot. Between Jan 1, and Dec, 31, 2014, we included 23 228 patients with breast cancer and 9634 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in our regression and trust-level analyses. 30-day mortality increased with age for both patients with breast cancer and patients with NSCLC treated with curative intent, and decreased with age for patients receiving palliative SACT (breast curative: odds ratio [OR] 1·085, 99% CI 1·040-1·132; p<0·0001; NSCLC curative: 1·045, 1·013-1·079; p=0·00033; breast palliative: 0·987, 0·977-0·996; p=0·00034; NSCLC palliative: 0·987, 0·976-0·998; p=0·0015). 30-day mortality was also significantly higher for patients

  6. Statin Treatment and Mortality in Bacterial Infections – A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkhem-Bergman, Linda; Bergman, Peter; Andersson, Jan; Lindh, Jonatan D.

    2010-01-01

    Background Several studies have reported improved survival in severe bacterial infections among statin treated patients. In addition, statins have been ascribed beneficial anti-inflammatory effects. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of statin-treatment on mortality in patients with bacterial infections, by means of a systematic review and a meta-analysis. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies investigating the association between statin use and mortality in patients with bacterial disease were identified in a systematic literature review and a meta-analysis was performed to calculate the overall odds ratio of mortality in statin users. The literature search identified 947 citations from which 40 relevant studies were extracted. In all, 15 studies comprising 113 910 patients were included in the final analysis. Statin use was associated with a significantly (pstatin treatment was no longer significant, with an OR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.58–1.07). Conclusion/Significance According to the meta-analysis of observational studies presented here, patients on statin therapy seem to have a better outcome in bacterial infections. However, the association did not reach statistical significance after adjustment for apparent publication bias. Thus, there is a great need for randomised controlled trials investigating the possible beneficial effect of statins in bacterial infections. PMID:20502712

  7. Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matute-Cruz Petra

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848 diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72% of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93. Conclusion Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

  8. Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perea-Milla, Emilio; Olalla, Julián; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Martos, Francisco; Matute-Cruz, Petra; Carmona-López, Guadalupe; Fornieles, Yolanda; Cayuela, Aurelio; García-Alegría, Javier

    2009-04-03

    Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.93). Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

  9. Acute kidney injury and renal replacement therapy independently predict mortality in neonatal and pediatric noncardiac patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askenazi, David J; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Hamilton, Kiya; Cutter, Gary; Laney, Debbie; Kaslow, Richard; Georgeson, Keith; Barnhart, Douglas C; Dimmitt, Reed A

    2011-01-01

    To determine the independent impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in infants and children who receive extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Despite continued expertise/technological advancement, patients who receive extracorporeal membrane oxygenation have high mortality. AKI and RRT portend poor outcomes independent of comorbidities and illness severity in several critically ill populations. Retrospective cohort study. The primary variables explored are AKI (categorical complication code for serum creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL or International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Revision 9 for acute renal failure), and RRT (complication/Current Procedural Terminology code for dialysis or hemofiltration). Multiple variables previously associated with mortality in this population were controlled, using logistic stepwise regression. Decision tree modeling was performed to determine optimal variables and cut points to predict mortality. Critically ill neonates (0-30 days old) and children (> 30 days but optimizing the timing/delivery of RRT may positively impact survival.

  10. The clinical outcomes and predictive factors for in-hospital mortality in non-neutropenic patients with candidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tsai-Yu; Hung, Chia-Yen; Shie, Shian-Sen; Chou, Pai-Chien; Kuo, Chih-Hsi; Chung, Fu-Tsai; Lo, Yu-Lun; Lin, Shu-Min

    2016-06-01

    Recent epidemiologic studies have showed that candidemia is an important nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients. The majority of candidemia patients were non-neutropenic rather than neutropenic status. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical outcome of non-neutropenic patients with candidemia and to measure the contributing factors for mortality. A total of 163 non-neutropenic patients with candidemia during January 2010 to December 2013 were retrospectively enrolled. The patients' risk factors for mortality, clinical outcomes, treatment regimens, and Candida species were analyzed. The overall mortality was 54.6%. Candida albicans was the most frequent Candida species (n = 83; 50.9% of patients). Under multivariate analyses, hemodialysis (OR, 4.554; 95% CI, 1.464-14.164) and the use of amphotericin B deoxycholate (OR, 8.709; 95% CI, 1.587-47.805) were independent factors associated with mortality. In contrast, abdominal surgery (OR, 0.360; 95% CI, 0.158-0.816) was associated with a better outcome. The overall mortality is still high in non-neutropenic patients with candidemia. Hemodialysis and use of amphotericin B deoxycholate were independent factors associated with mortality, whereas prior abdominal surgery was associated with a better outcome.

  11. Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

    2018-01-01

    The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Decompressive craniotomy for the treatment of malignant infarction of the middle cerebral artery: mortality and outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianise Toboliski Bongiorni

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To assess, by Rankin scale, the functional disability of patients who had a malignant middle cerebral artery (MCA ischemic stroke, who underwent decompressive craniotomy (DC within the first 30 days. Methods A cross-sectional study in a University hospital. Between June 2007 and December 2014, we retrospectively analyzed the records of all patients submitted to DC due to a malignant MCA infarction. The mortality rate was defined during the hospitalization period. The modified outcome Rankin score (mRS was measured 30 days after the procedure, for stratification of the quality of life. Results The DC mortality rate was 30% (95% CI 14.5 to 51.9 for the 20 patients reported. The mRS 30 days postoperatively was ≥ 4 [3.3 to 6] for all patients thereafter. Conclusion DC is to be considered a real alternative for the treatment of patients with a malignant ischemic MCA infarction.

  13. Long-term nasal high flow treatment with oxygen in COPD - exacerbations, admissions and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weinreich, Ulla; Storgaard, Line; Hockey, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Long term oxygen therapy (LTOT) improves survival in patients with COPD with resting hypoxemia. Exacerbations (AECOPD) and hospital admissions are prevalent and have a negative impact on prognosis. The AIRVO device delivers nasal high flow (NHF) heated, humidified oxygenated air, 20......-30 L/min, to COPD patients in need of LTOT.Aim: To investigate the number of self-reported AECOPD, AECOPD-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality in LTOT COPD patients treated with AIRVO-NHF.Method: In this prospective, randomized, controlled, one-year study, 200 COPD patients treated...... with LTOT, were randomized to AIRVO-NHF (n=100) or usual care (n=100). Where possible, patients who ceased use of the AIRVO device were still followed. For count data, Poisson regression models were used and Cox’s proportional hazards model for all-cause mortality.Results: The two treatment groups were...

  14. Serum globulin predicts all-cause mortality for life insurance applicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2014-01-01

    Determine the relative mortality in apparently healthy adults with various levels of serum globulin. By use of the Social Security Death Master File, mortality in 2010 was determined for 7.7 million life insurance applicants age 20 to 89 providing blood samples with valid globulin results between 1992 and 2006. Relative mortality by Cox regression for bands of globulin values was determined by age-sex group, with age split into 20 to 59 and 60 to 89, with each grouping also including age as a covariate. Further analysis was conducted by excluding applicants with elevations of other test values associated with increased globulin levels and mortality risk. After accounting for the mortality impact of frequently associated laboratory test abnormalities including BMI, alkaline phosphatase and albumin, relative mortality was found to increase gradually for globulin values > 3.2 g/dL. Values > 4.0 were associated with a mortality risk that was approximately doubled. There is also a small increased risk for globulin values life insurance applicants. In many cases, other laboratory findings were not informative of the risk.

  15. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  16. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (pfall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern. Males were at higher risk of mortality after low falls. The effect

  17. Serum phosphate predicts early mortality in adults starting antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C Heimburger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of mortality in the initial weeks of treatment. We assessed the association of serum phosphate with early mortality among HIV-infected adults with severe malnutrition and/or advanced immunosuppression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An observational cohort of 142 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia with body mass index (BMI <16 kg/m(2 or CD4(+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/microL, or both, was followed prospectively during the first 12 weeks of ART. Detailed health and dietary intake history, review of systems, physical examination, serum metabolic panel including phosphate, and serum ferritin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were monitored. The primary outcome was mortality. Baseline serum phosphate was a significant predictor of mortality; participants alive at 12 weeks had a median value of 1.30 mmol/L (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.04, 1.43, compared to 1.06 mmol/L (IQR: 0.89, 1.27 among those who died (p<0.01. Each 0.1 mmol/L increase in baseline phosphate was associated with an incremental decrease in mortality (AHR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.95. The association was independent of other metabolic parameters and known risk factors for early ART-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. While participant attrition represented a limitation, it was consistent with local program experience. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low serum phosphate at ART initiation was an independent predictor of early mortality among HIV patients starting ART with severe malnutrition or advanced immunosuppression. This may represent a physiologic phenomenon similar to refeeding syndrome, and may lead to therapeutic interventions that could reduce mortality.

  18. Antiretroviral therapy in the Malawi defence force: access, treatment outcomes and impact on mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred C Banda

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS affects all sectors of the population and the defence forces are not exempt. A national survey was conducted in all public and private sectors in Malawi that provide antiretroviral therapy (ART to determine the uptake of ART by army personnel, their outcomes while on treatment, and the impact of ART on mortality in the Malawi Defence Force. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A retrospective cohort analysis was carried out, collecting data on access and retention on treatment from all 103 public and 38 private sector ART clinics in Malawi, using standardised patient master cards and clinic registers. Observations were censored on December 31(st 2006. Independent data on mortality trends in army personnel from all causes between 2002 and 2006 were available from army records. By December 31(st 2006, there were 85,168 patients ever started on ART in both public and private sectors, of whom 547 (0.7% were army personnel. Of these, 22% started ART in WHO clinical stage 1 or 2 with a CD4-lymphocyte count of Treatment outcomes of army personnel by December 31(st 2006 were:-365 (67% alive and on ART at their registration facility, 98 (18% transferred out to another facility, 71 (13% dead, 9 (2% lost to follow-up, and 4 (<1% stopped treatment. The probability of being alive on ART at 6-, 12- and 18-months was 89.8%, 83.4% and 78.8% respectively. All-cause mortality in army personnel declined dramatically over the five year period from 2002-2006. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: There has been a good access of army personnel to ART during the last five years with excellent outcomes, and this should serve as an example for other defence forces and large companies in the region.

  19. Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandelblatt, Jeanne; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien; Schechter, Clyde; Chang, Yaojen; Huang, An-Tsun; Near, Aimee M; de Koning, Harry; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2013-07-15

    US breast cancer mortality is declining, but thousands of women still die each year. Two established simulation models examine 6 strategies that include increased screening and/or treatment or elimination of obesity versus continuation of current patterns. The models use common national data on incidence and obesity prevalence, competing causes of death, mammography characteristics, treatment effects, and survival/cure. Parameters are modified based on obesity (defined as BMI  ≥  30 kg/m(2) ). Outcomes are presented for the year 2025 among women aged 25+ and include numbers of cases, deaths, mammograms and false-positives; age-adjusted incidence and mortality; breast cancer mortality reduction and deaths averted; and probability of dying of breast cancer. If current patterns continue, the models project that there would be about 50,100-57,400 (range across models) annual breast cancer deaths in 2025. If 90% of women were screened annually from ages 40 to 54 and biennially from ages 55 to 99 (or death), then 5100-6100 fewer deaths would occur versus current patterns, but incidence, mammograms, and false-positives would increase. If all women received the indicated systemic treatment (with no screening change), then 11,400-14,500 more deaths would be averted versus current patterns, but increased toxicity could occur. If 100% received screening plus indicated therapy, there would be 18,100-20,400 fewer deaths. Eliminating obesity yields 3300-5700 fewer breast cancer deaths versus continuation of current obesity levels. Maximal reductions in breast cancer deaths could be achieved through optimizing treatment use, followed by increasing screening use and obesity prevention. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  20. Radiologically Determined Sarcopenia Predicts Morbidity and Mortality Following Abdominal Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Keaton; Gordon-Weeks, Alex; Coleman, Claire; Silva, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Individualised risk prediction is crucial if targeted pre-operative risk reduction strategies are to be deployed effectively. Radiologically determined sarcopenia has been shown to predict outcomes across a range of intra-abdominal pathologies. Access to pre-operative cross-sectional imaging has resulted in a number of studies investigating the predictive value of radiologically assessed sarcopenia over recent years. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine whether radiologically determined sarcopenia predicts post-operative morbidity and mortality following abdominal surgery. CENTRAL, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched using terms to capture the concept of radiologically assessed sarcopenia used to predict post-operative complications in abdominal surgery. Outcomes included 30 day post-operative morbidity and mortality, 1-, 3- and 5-year overall and disease-free survival and length of stay. Data were extracted and meta-analysed using either random or fixed effects model (Revman ® 5.3). A total of 24 studies involving 5267 patients were included in the review. The presence of sarcopenia was associated with a significant increase in major post-operative complications (RR 1.61 95% CI 1.24-4.15 p = sarcopenia predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year survival (RR 1.61 95% CI 1.36-1.91 p = sarcopenia may benefit patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

  1. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  2. Predicting the effect of psychoeducational group treatment for hypochondriasis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buwalda, F.M.; Bouman, T.K.

    2008-01-01

    Both individual cognitive-behavioural therapy and short-term psychoeducational courses have shown to be effective in reducing hypochondriacal complaints. However, it is unknown which patients benefit from treatment. The aim of the present study is to explore which variables predict treatment outcome

  3. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, Joachim; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Nickel, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  4. Predictive value of elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio for long-term cardiovascular mortality in peripheral arterial occlusive disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erturk, Mehmet; Cakmak, Huseyin Altug; Surgit, Ozgur; Celik, Omer; Aksu, Hale Unal; Akgul, Ozgur; Gurdogan, Muhammet; Bulut, Umit; Ozalp, Begum; Akbay, Ertan; Yildirim, Aydin

    2014-11-01

    Peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD), which is common in male gender and elderly population, is related with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in atherosclerosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between NLR and cardiovascular mortality both in patients with intermittent claudication and critical limb ischemia. In a retrospective study, 593 consecutive patients who had been admitted to the inpatient ward of the vascular department of a large tertiary training and research hospital with diagnosis of symptomatic PAOD between May 2009 and September 2012 were included. Patients were divided into two groups according to their NLR as follows: high NLR (NLR>3.0) and low NLR (NLR ≤ 3.0) groups. During the course of the present study [median follow-up period of 20 months (interquartile range, 12-27)], 75 deaths occurred out of 508 patients (14.8%). Cardiovascular mortality was found to be significantly higher in elevated NLR group (n = 43) as compared to low NLR group (n = 32) (23.6% vs 9.8%, respectively; p 3 and age were found as independent predictors of long-term cardiovascular mortality in Cox regression analysis [hazard ratios (95% confidence interval), 2.04 (1.26-3.30) and 1.04 (1.01-1.07), p = 0.004 and p = 0.004, respectively]. We demonstrated that an increased NLR was related with higher cardiovascular mortality in patients with PAOD, who were admitted with critical limb ischemia or intermittent claudication. NLR, which reflects the patient's inflammatory status, is an inexpensive and readily available biomarker that provides an additional level of risk stratification beyond that provided by conventional risk scores in predicting long-term cardiovascular mortality in PAOD. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Inclusion of Sarcopenia Within MELD (MELD-Sarcopenia) and the Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montano-Loza, Aldo J; Duarte-Rojo, Andres; Meza-Junco, Judith; Baracos, Vickie E; Sawyer, Michael B; Pang, Jack X Q; Beaumont, Crystal; Esfandiari, Nina; Myers, Robert P

    2015-07-16

    Limitations of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score include its failure to assess the nutritional and functional status of cirrhotic patients. Our objectives were to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia in cirrhosis and whether the inclusion of muscularity assessment within MELD could improve the prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. We included 669 cirrhotic patients who were consecutively evaluated for liver transplantation. Skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra (L3 SMI) was measured by computed tomography, and sarcopenia was defined using previously published gender and body mass index-specific cutoffs. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, a novel MELD-sarcopenia score was derived. Sarcopenia was present in 298 patients (45%); sarcopenic patients had shorter median survival than non-sarcopenic patients (20±3 vs. 95±24 months, Psarcopenia (P=0.1). Corresponding figures for 1-year mortality were 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.80), respectively (P=0.03). The c-statistics for 3-month mortality in patients with MELDsarcopenia compared with MELD. Modification of MELD to include sarcopenia is associated with improved prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis, primarily in patients with low MELD scores. External validation of this prognostic index in larger cohorts of cirrhotic patients is warranted.

  6. Predicting Tree Mortality Die-off Events Associated with Hotter Drought and Assessing Their Global Consequences via Ecoclimate Teleconnections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D. D.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Adams, H. D.; Barnes, M.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Bradford, J. B.; Cobb, N.; Field, J. P.; Froend, R.; Fontaine, J. B.; Garcia, E.; Hardy, G. E. S. J.; Huxman, T. E.; Kala, J.; Lague, M. M.; Martinez-Yrizar, A.; Matusick, G.; Minor, D. M.; Moore, D. J.; Ng, M.; Ruthrof, K. X.; Saleska, S. R.; Stark, S. C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Villegas, J. C.; Williams, A. P.; Zou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Evidence that tree mortality is increasingly likely occur in extensive die-off events across the terrestrial biosphere continues to mount. The consequences of such extensive mortality events are potentially profound, not only for the locations where die-off events occur, but also for other locations that could be impacted via ecoclimate teleconnections, whereby the land surface changes associated with die-off in one location could alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect vegetation elsewhere. Here, we (1) recap the background of tree mortality as an emerging environmental issue, (2) highlight recent advances that could help us improve predictions of the vulnerability to tree mortality, including the underlying importance of hydraulic failure, the potential to develop climatic envelopes specific to tree mortality events, and consideration of the role of heat waves; and (3) initial bounding simulations that indicate the potential for tree die-off events in different locations to alter ecoclimate teleconnections. As we move toward globally coordinated carbon accounting and management, the high vulnerability to tree die-off events and the potential for such events to affect vegetation elsewhere will both need to be accounted for.

  7. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  8. Music therapy-induced changes in salivary cortisol level are predictive of cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yi-Chou; Lin, Yen-Ju; Lu, Kuo-Cheng; Chiang, Han-Sun; Chang, Chia-Chi; Yang, Li-King

    2017-01-01

    Music therapy has been applied in hemodialysis (HD) patients for relieving mental stress. Whether the stress-relieving effect by music therapy is predictive of clinical outcome in HD patients is still unclear. We recruited a convenience sample of 99 patients on maintenance HD and randomly assigned them to the experimental (n=49) or control (n=50) group. The experimental group received relaxing music therapy for 1 week, whereas the control group received no music therapy. In the experimental group, we compared cardiovascular mortality in the patients with and without cortisol changes. The salivary cortisol level was lowered after 1 week of music therapy in the experimental group (-2.41±3.08 vs 1.66±2.11 pg/mL, P 0.6 pg/mL (83.8% vs 63.6%, P predict cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance HD.

  9. Noninvasively assessed pulmonary artery stiffness predicts mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension .

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gan, C.T.; Lankhaar, J.W.; Westerhof, N.; Marcus, J.T.; Becker, A.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Boonstra, A.; Postmus, P.E.; Vonk Noordegraaf, A.

    2007-01-01

    Aims: Decreased total compliance of the pulmonary vascular bed is associated with increased mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We investigated whether proximal pulmonary artery stiffness, in terms of area distensibility and noninvasively assessed relative area change

  10. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  11. Treatment Failures and Excess Mortality Among HIV-Exposed, Uninfected Children With Pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Matthew S; Wirth, Kathleen E; Steenhoff, Andrew P; Cunningham, Coleen K; Arscott-Mills, Tonya; Boiditswe, Sefelani C; Patel, Mohamed Z; Shah, Samir S; Finalle, Rodney; Makone, Ishmael; Feemster, Kristen A

    2015-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-exposed, uninfected (HIV-EU) children are at increased risk of infectious illnesses and mortality compared with children of HIV-negative mothers (HIV-unexposed). However, treatment outcomes for lower respiratory tract infections among HIV-EU children remain poorly defined. We conducted a hospital-based, prospective cohort study of N = 238 children aged 1-23 months with pneumonia, defined by the World Health Organization. Children were recruited within 6 hours of presentation to a tertiary hospital in Botswana. The primary outcome--treatment failure at 48 hours--was assessed by an investigator blinded to HIV exposure status. Median age was 6.0 months; 55% were male. One hundred fifty-three (64%) children were HIV-unexposed, 64 (27%) were HIV-EU, and 20 (8%) were HIV-infected; the HIV exposure status of 1 child could not be established. Treatment failure at 48 hours occurred in 79 (33%) children, including in 36 (24%) HIV-unexposed, 30 (47%) HIV-EU, and 12 (60%) HIV-infected children. In multivariable analyses, HIV-EU children were more likely to fail treatment at 48 hours (risk ratio [RR]: 1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-2.64, P = .001) and had higher in-hospital mortality (RR: 4.31, 95% CI: 1.44-12.87, P = .01) than HIV-unexposed children. Differences in outcomes by HIV exposure status were observed only among children under 6 months of age. HIV-EU children more frequently received treatment with a third-generation cephalosporin, but this did not reduce the risk of treatment failure in this group. HIV-EU children with pneumonia have higher rates of treatment failure and in-hospital mortality than HIV-unexposed children during the first 6 months of life. Treatment with a third-generation cephalosporins did not improve outcomes among HIV-EU children. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  13. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A.; De Amorim Bernstein, Karen; Halpern, Elkan F.

    2016-01-01

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  14. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Intervention, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); De Amorim Bernstein, Karen [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiation Oncology, Francis H Burr Proton Therapy Center, Boston, MA (United States); Halpern, Elkan F. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Institute of Technology Assessment, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-12-15

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  15. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  16. Echocardiographic findings predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality in left-sided native valve Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine K.; Park, Lawrence; Tong, Steven Y C

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus left-sided native valve infective endocarditis (LNVIE) has higher complication and mortality rates compared with endocarditis from other pathogens. Whether echocardiographic variables can predict prognosis in S aureus LNVIE is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS......: Consecutive patients with LNVIE, enrolled between January 2000 and September 2006, in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis were identified. Subjects without S aureus IE were matched to those with S aureus IE by the propensity of having S aureus. Survival differences were determined using log...

  17. Prevalence of frailty and its ability to predict in hospital delirium, falls, and 6-month mortality in hospitalized older patients

    OpenAIRE

    Joosten, Etienne; Demuynck, Mathias; Detroyer, Elke; Milisen, Koen

    2014-01-01

    Background The prevalence and significance of frailty are seldom studied in hospitalized patients. Aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of frailty and to determine the extent that frailty predicts delirium, falls and mortality in hospitalized older patients. Methods In a prospective study of 220 older patients, frailty was determined using the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture (SOF) frailty index. Patients were classified as nonfrail, prefrail...

  18. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Lassale

    Full Text Available Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre was 0.75 (0.72-0.79 to 0.88 (0.84-0.92 for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83 to 0.84 (0.76-0.92 for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83 to 0.91 (0.85-0.97 for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  19. Inclusion of Sarcopenia Within MELD (MELD-Sarcopenia) and the Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

    OpenAIRE

    Montano-Loza, Aldo J; Duarte-Rojo, Andres; Meza-Junco, Judith; Baracos, Vickie E; Sawyer, Michael B; Pang, Jack X Q; Beaumont, Crystal; Esfandiari, Nina; Myers, Robert P

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Limitations of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score include its failure to assess the nutritional and functional status of cirrhotic patients. Our objectives were to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia in cirrhosis and whether the inclusion of muscularity assessment within MELD could improve the prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We included 669 cirrhotic patients who were consecutively evaluated for liver transplantation. Skeletal muscle inde...

  20. The Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI Predicts Mortality, Unplanned Hospitalization and Hospital Readmissions at the Population Level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Robusto

    Full Text Available to develop and validate the Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI, a predictive model derived from drug prescriptions able to stratify the general population according to the risk of death, unplanned hospital admission, and readmission, and to compare the new predictive index with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI.Population-based cohort study, using a record-linkage analysis of prescription databases, hospital discharge records, and the civil registry. The predictive model was developed based on prescription patterns indicative of chronic diseases, using a random sample of 50% of the population. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess weights of different prescription patterns and drug classes. The predictive properties of the DDCI were confirmed in the validation cohort, represented by the other half of the population. The performance of DDCI was compared to the CCI in terms of calibration, discrimination and reclassification.6 local health authorities with 2.0 million citizens aged 40 years or above.One year and overall mortality rates, unplanned hospitalization rates and hospital readmission rates progressively increased with increasing DDCI score. In the overall population, the model including age, gender and DDCI showed a high performance. DDCI predicted 1-year mortality, overall mortality and unplanned hospitalization with an accuracy of 0.851, 0.835, and 0.584, respectively. If compared to CCI, DDCI showed discrimination and reclassification properties very similar to the CCI, and improved prediction when used in combination with the CCI.DDCI is a reliable prognostic index, able to stratify the entire population into homogeneous risk groups. DDCI can represent an useful tool for risk-adjustment, policy planning, and the identification of patients needing a focused approach in everyday practice.

  1. Comparing three clinical prediction rules for primarily predicting the 30-day mortality of patients with pulmonary embolism: The “Simplified Revised Geneva Score,” the “Original PESI,” and the “Simplified PESI”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Tamizifar

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Among patients with acute PE, the simplified PESI model was able to accurately predict mortality rate for low risk patients. Among high risk patients, however, the difference between the three models in predicting prognosis was not significant.

  2. Left ventricular global longitudinal strain predicts major adverse cardiac events and all-cause mortality in heart transplant patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemmensen, Tor Skibsted; Eiskjær, Hans; Løgstrup, Brian Bridal; Ilkjær, Lars Bo; Poulsen, Steen Hvitfeldt

    2017-05-01

    Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS) is a robust longitudinal myocardial deformation marker that is strongly affected by cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), microvascular dysfunction, and acute cellular rejection (ACR). We evaluated graft deformation for risk stratification in long-term heart transplant (HTx) patients. The study included 196 patients who underwent HTx between 2011 and 2013. Patients underwent comprehensive echocardiography and coronary angiography. Previous rejection burden was assessed, and ACR grades were calculated. Patients were prospectively followed until February 24, 2016. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including coronary event, heart failure, treated rejection, and cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality were recorded. During follow-up, 57 patients experienced MACE. Median follow-up was 1,035 (interquartile range [IQR] 856-1,124) days. Median time to first event was 534 (IQR 276-763) days. LVGLS was a strong predictor of MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 4.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-8.9, p transplantation. Measurement of LVGLS strongly predicts MACE and mortality in long-term HTx patients. Predictive ability was seen in patients with and without CAV. A combined model of left ventricular systolic deformation by LVGLS and diastolic graft performance by LVFP was a stronger model for prediction of MACE and all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  4. Predicted Risk of Mortality, Transfusion, and Postoperative Outcomes in Isolated Primary Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, W Brent; Binongo, Jose; Sarin, Eric L; Leshnower, Bradley G; Chen, Edward P; Lattouf, Omar M; Thourani, Vinod H; Guyton, Robert A; Halkos, Michael E

    2016-02-01

    Transfusion has been linked with increased postoperative morbidity and death after cardiac operations. The purpose of this study was to determine the associations among The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM), transfusion, and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent isolated primary valve operations. A retrospective review of the local Society of Thoracic Surgeons database of 1,575 adults undergoing isolated primary valve operations from 2003 to 2013 at a United States academic center was performed. Patients were compared by their postoperative transfusion status (NONE vs TRANS) and by PROM. Taking into account procedure type and preoperative hemoglobin, three-step multiple linear or logistic regression analyses were performed to assess (1) the influence of PROM on postoperative outcomes, (2) influence of PROM on transfusion, and (3) influence of PROM and transfusion on postoperative outcomes. Of 1,575 patients studied, 1,245 (79%) received transfusions. The mean PROM was 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 1.3) for patients in the NONE group, and was 2.7% (95% CI, 2.6 to 2.9) for the TRANS group. The correlation between PROM and total red blood cell units transfused was r = 0.31 (p < 0.0001). Patients with a PROM of 4% to 8% (odds ratio [OR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.28 to 3.45) and exceeding 8% (OR 3.80, 95% CI, 1.35 to 10.68) were more likely to receive transfusions than the low-risk (<4%) PROM stratum. For each percentage increase in PROM, the odds of transfusion increased by 27% (95% CI, 16% to 39%), controlling for procedure type and preoperative hemoglobin. There were no 30-day deaths in the NONE group, and rates of stroke, renal failure, and mediastinitis were lower. Composite event rates increased with increasing PROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.63), with TRANS patients consistently showing a higher risk of major adverse cardiac events than NONE patients (OR, 7.47; 95% CI, 2.08 to 26.80). Increased PROM yielded higher

  5. Prediction models for the mortality risk in chronic dialysis patients: a systematic review and independent external validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramspek, Chava L; Voskamp, Pauline Wm; van Ittersum, Frans J; Krediet, Raymond T; Dekker, Friedo W; van Diepen, Merel

    2017-01-01

    In medicine, many more prediction models have been developed than are implemented or used in clinical practice. These models cannot be recommended for clinical use before external validity is established. Though various models to predict mortality in dialysis patients have been published, very few have been validated and none are used in routine clinical practice. The aim of the current study was to identify existing models for predicting mortality in dialysis patients through a review and subsequently to externally validate these models in the same large independent patient cohort, in order to assess and compare their predictive capacities. A systematic review was performed following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. To account for missing data, multiple imputation was performed. The original prediction formulae were extracted from selected studies. The probability of death per model was calculated for each individual within the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD). The predictive performance of the models was assessed based on their discrimination and calibration. In total, 16 articles were included in the systematic review. External validation was performed in 1,943 dialysis patients from NECOSAD for a total of seven models. The models performed moderately to well in terms of discrimination, with C -statistics ranging from 0.710 (interquartile range 0.708-0.711) to 0.752 (interquartile range 0.750-0.753) for a time frame of 1 year. According to the calibration, most models overestimated the probability of death. Overall, the performance of the models was poorer in the external validation than in the original population, affirming the importance of external validation. Floege et al's models showed the highest predictive performance. The present study is a step forward in the use of a prediction model as a useful tool for nephrologists, using evidence-based medicine that

  6. Development of an oncological-multidimensional prognostic index (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Antonella; Fontana, Andrea; Zafferri, Valeria; Panza, Francesco; Fiduccia, Pasquale; Basso, Umberto; Copetti, Massimiliano; Lonardi, Sara; Roma, Anna; Falci, Cristina; Monfardini, Silvio; Cella, Alberto; Pilotto, Alberto; Zagonel, Vittorina

    2016-05-01

    A multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been developed and validated in independent cohorts of older patients demonstrating good accuracy in predicting one-year mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a cancer-specific modified MPI (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients. We enrolled 658 new cancer subjects ≥70 years (mean age 77.1 years, 433 females, 65.8 %) attending oncological outpatient services from September 2004 to June 2011. The Onco-MPI was calculated according to a validated algorithm as a weighted linear combination of the following CGA domains: age, sex, basal and instrumental activities of daily living, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, mini-mental state examination, body mass index, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, number of drugs and the presence of caregiver. Cancer sites (breast 46.5 %, colorectal 21.3 %, lung 6.4 %, prostate 5.5 %, urinary tract 5.0 %, other 15.3 %) and cancer stages (I 37 %, II 22 %, III 19 %, IV 22 %) were also included in the model. All-cause mortality was recorded. Three grades of severity of the Onco-MPI score (low risk: 0.0-0.46, medium risk: 0.47-0.63, high risk: 0.64-1.0) were calculated using RECPAM method. Discriminatory power and calibration were assessed by estimating survival C-indices, along with 95 % confidence interval (CI) and the survival-based Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) measures. One-year mortality incidence rate was 17.4 %. A significant difference in mortality rates was observed in Onco-MPI low risk compared to medium- and high-risk patients (2.1 vs. 17.7 vs. 80.8 %, p patients that can be useful for clinical decision making in this age group.

  7. Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kei Ouchi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED intubations. Methods: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008–2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model’s beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. Results: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (10 had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09, and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.

  8. Serum T3 level can predict cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality rates in CKD patients with proteinuria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jae Won; Han, Seung Tae; Song, Shin Han; Kim, Min Keun; Kim, Jae Seok; Choi, Seung Ok; Han, Byoung-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Patients with proteinuria frequently show changes in thyroid hormone levels. Serum T3 depression predicts a negative outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and may be associated with cardiovascular complications or chronic inflammation. Few studies have explored the relationship between thyroid hormone dysregulation and clinical outcome in patients with proteinuria. We reviewed thyroid function test results obtained from 211 patients with 24 h urinary protein excretion greater than 150 mg/day and found a correlation of thyroid hormone level with cardiovascular events and mortality. T3 decreased with age (p = 0.001) and 24 h urine albumin (p = 0.028). Free T4 decreased in accordance with 24 h urine protein and serum creatinine (p = 0.034 and p = 0.033, respectively). In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, lower cumulative survival, higher cardiovascular events, and mortality were found in the low T3 group compared with the normal T3 group (p = 0.000, p = 0.013, and p = 0.001, respectively). In Cox regression analysis, we observed that, with low T3, decreased sodium, and old age, the incidence of cardiovascular complications (p = 0.000, p = 0.016, and p = 0.000, respectively), cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.000, p = 0.048, and p = 0.001, respectively), and all-cause mortality (p = 0.000, p = 0.017, and p = 0.000, respectively) increased. In CKD patients with proteinuria, low T3 concentration predicted all-cause mortality and cardiovascular event independently of the severity of proteinuria.

  9. Endovascular Treatment of Malignant Superior Vena Cava Syndrome: Results and Predictive Factors of Clinical Efficacy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fagedet, Dorothee, E-mail: DFagedet@chu-grenoble.fr [CHU de Grenoble, Clinique universitaire de medecine interne, Pole Pluridisciplinaire de Medecine (France); Thony, Frederic, E-mail: FThony@chu-grenoble.fr [CHU de Grenoble, Clinique universitaire de radiologie et imagerie medicale, Pole d' Imagerie (France); Timsit, Jean-Francois, E-mail: JFTimsit@chu-grenoble.fr [CHU de Grenoble, Clinique universitaire de reanimation, Pole Medecine Aiguee Communautaire (France); Rodiere, Mathieu, E-mail: MRodiere@chu-grenoble.fr [CHU de Grenoble, Clinique universitaire de radiologie et imagerie medicale, Pole d' Imagerie (France); Monnin-Bares, Valerie, E-mail: v-monnin@chu-montpellier.fr [CHRU Arnaud de Villeneuve, Imagerie Medicale Thoracique Cardiovasculaire (France); Ferretti, Gilbert R., E-mail: GFerretti@chu-grenoble.fr [CHU de Grenoble, Clinique universitaire de radiologie et imagerie medicale, Pole d' Imagerie (France); Vesin, Aurelien; Moro-Sibilot, Denis, E-mail: DMoro.pneumo@chu-grenoble.fr [University Grenoble 1 e Albert Bonniot Institute, Inserm U823 (France)

    2013-02-15

    To demonstrate the effectiveness of endovascular treatment (EVT) with self-expandable bare stents for malignant superior vena cava syndrome (SVCS) and to analyze predictive factors of EVT efficacy. Retrospective review of the 164 patients with malignant SVCS treated with EVT in our hospital from August 1992 to December 2007 and followed until February 2009. Endovascular treatment includes angioplasty before and after stent placement. We used self-expandable bare stents. We studied results of this treatment and looked for predictive factors of clinical efficacy, recurrence, and complications by statistical analysis. Endovascular treatment was clinically successful in 95% of cases, with an acceptable rate of early mortality (2.4%). Thrombosis of the superior vena cava was the only independent factor for EVT failure. The use of stents over 16 mm in diameter was a predictive factor for complications (P = 0.008). Twenty-one complications (12.8%) occurred during the follow-up period. Relapse occurred in 36 patients (21.9%), with effective restenting in 75% of cases. Recurrence of SVCS was significantly increased in cases of occlusion (P = 0.01), initial associated thrombosis (P = 0.006), or use of steel stents (P = 0.004). Long-term anticoagulant therapy did not influence the risk of recurrence or complications. In malignancy, EVT with self-expandable bare stents is an effective SVCS therapy. These results prompt us to propose treatment with stents earlier in the clinical course of patients with SVCS and to avoid dilatation greater than 16 mm.

  10. Endovascular Treatment of Malignant Superior Vena Cava Syndrome: Results and Predictive Factors of Clinical Efficacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fagedet, Dorothée; Thony, Frederic; Timsit, Jean-François; Rodiere, Mathieu; Monnin-Bares, Valérie; Ferretti, Gilbert R.; Vesin, Aurélien; Moro-Sibilot, Denis

    2013-01-01

    To demonstrate the effectiveness of endovascular treatment (EVT) with self-expandable bare stents for malignant superior vena cava syndrome (SVCS) and to analyze predictive factors of EVT efficacy. Retrospective review of the 164 patients with malignant SVCS treated with EVT in our hospital from August 1992 to December 2007 and followed until February 2009. Endovascular treatment includes angioplasty before and after stent placement. We used self-expandable bare stents. We studied results of this treatment and looked for predictive factors of clinical efficacy, recurrence, and complications by statistical analysis. Endovascular treatment was clinically successful in 95% of cases, with an acceptable rate of early mortality (2.4%). Thrombosis of the superior vena cava was the only independent factor for EVT failure. The use of stents over 16 mm in diameter was a predictive factor for complications (P = 0.008). Twenty-one complications (12.8%) occurred during the follow-up period. Relapse occurred in 36 patients (21.9%), with effective restenting in 75% of cases. Recurrence of SVCS was significantly increased in cases of occlusion (P = 0.01), initial associated thrombosis (P = 0.006), or use of steel stents (P = 0.004). Long-term anticoagulant therapy did not influence the risk of recurrence or complications. In malignancy, EVT with self-expandable bare stents is an effective SVCS therapy. These results prompt us to propose treatment with stents earlier in the clinical course of patients with SVCS and to avoid dilatation greater than 16 mm.

  11. Pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension predicts higher risk for mortality after cardiac transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Javed; Stankewicz, Mark A; Wu, Jack; Chomsky, Don B; Howser, Renee L; Khadim, Ghazanfar; Davis, Stacy F; Pierson, Richard N; Wilson, John R

    2005-02-01

    Pre-transplant fixed pulmonary hypertension is associated with higher post-transplant mortality. In this study, we assessed the significance of pre-transplant reversible pulmonary hypertension in patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. Overall, we studied 182 patients with baseline normal pulmonary pressures or reversible pulmonary hypertension, defined as a decrease in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) to 50 mm Hg had a higher risk of death (odds ratio [OR] 5.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46 to 19.84 as compared with PAS 4.0 WU, but patients with TPG > or =16 had a higher risk of mortality (OR 4.93, 95% CI 1.84 to 13.17). PAS pressure was an independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Recipient body mass index, history of sternotomy; and donor ischemic time were the other independent predictors of mortality. Pre-transplant pulmonary hypertension, even when reversible to a PVR of < or =2.5 WU, is associated with a higher mortality post-transplant.

  12. [Total cholesterol levels predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure aged 70 years or older].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla-Palomas, Juan L; Gámez-López, Antonio L; Moreno-Conde, Mirian; López-Ibáñez, Cristina; Ramiro-Ortega, Esmeralda; Castellano-García, Patricia; Villar-Ráez, Antonia

    2016-01-01

    Lower total cholesterol (TC) levels have been associated with increased mortality In both acute and chronic heart failure (HF) patients. The present study sought to evaluate the impact of TC levels on in-hospital mortality in patients with acute HF aged 70 years or older. Patients were divided into 3 groups based on TC (mg/dL) quartiles (Q) as follow: Q1 (CT≤125), Q2-Q3 (CT 126-174), Q4 (CT≥175). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association of each variable with hypocholesterolaemia and in-hospital mortality. The analysis included 301 patients with acute HF. The mean age was 79.3±5.5 years, and 51.2% of patients had HF with depressed systolic function, and the most frequent aetiology was ischaemic heart disease (40.9%). Higher C-reactive protein levels, lower levels of serum albumin and haemoglobin, and lower left ventricle ejection fraction were independently associated with hypocholesterolaemia. There 26 deaths (8.6% of the series) during hospitalization. In-hospital mortality decreased in a stepwise fashion with increasing quartile of TC: Q1 14.3%, Q2-Q3 8.7% and Q4 2.7% (P=.04), and was independently associated with higher serum creatinine levels and lower serum albumin and TC levels. Lower TC levels independently predict increased in-hospital mortality risk in older patients with acute HF. A higher inflammatory activity, associated with a lower total cholesterol in this clinical setting may explain the inverse relationship between cholesterol and mortality. Copyright © 2015 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Plasma cytokine levels predict mortality in patients with acute renal failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Edith M; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Sezer, M Tugrul; Chertow, Glenn M; Mehta, Ravindra L; Paganini, Emil P; Soroko, Sharon; Freedman, Stephanie; Becker, Karen; Spratt, Daniel; Shyr, Yu; Ikizler, T Alp

    2004-04-01

    Critically ill patients with acute renal failure (ARF) experience a high mortality rate. Animal and human studies suggest that proinflammatory cytokines lead to the development of a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), which is temporally followed by a counter anti-inflammatory response syndrome (CARS). This process has not been specifically described in critically ill patients with ARF. The Program to Improve Care in Acute Renal Disease (PICARD) is a prospective, multicenter cohort study designed to examine the natural history, practice patterns, and outcomes of treatment in critically ill patients with ARF. In a subset of 98 patients with ARF, we measured plasma proinflammatory cytokines [interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)], the acute-phase reactant C-reactive protein (CRP), and the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 at study enrollment and over the course of illness. When compared with healthy subjects and end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis, patients with ARF had significantly higher plasma levels of all measured cytokines. Additionally, the proinflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-8 were significantly higher in nonsurvivors versus survivors [median 234.7 (interdecile range 64.8 to 1775.9) pg/mL vs. 113.5 (46.1 to 419.3) pg/mL, P= 0.02 for IL-6; 35.5 (14.1 to 237.9) pg/mL vs. 21.2 (8.5 to 87.1) pg/mL, P= 0.03 for IL-8]. The anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 was also significantly higher in nonsurvivors [3.1 (0.5 to 41.9) pg/mL vs. 2.4 (0.5 to 16.9) pg/mL, P= 0.04]. For each natural log unit increase in the levels of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, the odds of death increased by 65%, 54%, and 34%, respectively, corresponding to increases in relative risk of approximately 30%, 25%, and 15%. The presence or absence of SIRS or sepsis was not a major determinant of plasma cytokine concentration in this group of patients. There is evidence of ongoing SIRS with concomitant CARS in critically ill patients

  14. Continuous renal replacement therapy in children: fluid overload does not always predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Galasso, Lara; Emma, Francesco; Picca, Stefano; Di Nardo, Matteo; Rossetti, Emanuele; Guzzo, Isabella

    2016-04-01

    Mortality among critically ill children requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is high. Several factors have been identified as outcome predictors. Many studies have specifically reported a positive association between the fluid overload at CRRT initiation and the mortality of critically ill pediatric patients. This study is a retrospective single-center analysis including all patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of our hospital who received CRRT between 2000 and 2012. One hundred thirty-one patients were identified and subsequently classified according to primary disease. Survival rates, severity of illness and fluid balance differed among subgroups. The primary outcome was patient survival to PICU discharge. Overall survival to PICU discharge was 45.8 %. Based on multiple regression analysis, mortality was independently associated with onco-hematological disease [odds ratio (OR) 11.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.3-104.7; p = 0.028], severe multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) (OR 5.1, 95 % CI 1.7-15; p = 0.003) and hypotension (OR 11.6, 95 % CI 1.4-93.2; p = 0.021). In the subgroup analysis, a fluid overload (FO) of more than 10 % (FO>10 %) at the beginning of CRRT seems to be a negative predictor of mortality (OR 10.9, 95 % CI 0.78-152.62; p = 0.07) only in children with milder disease (renal patients). Due to lack of statistical power, the independent effect of fluid overload on mortality could not be analyzed in all subgroups of patients. In children treated with CRRT the underlying diagnosis and severity of illness are independent risk factors for mortality. The degree of FO is a negative predictor only in patients with milder disease.

  15. Delirium symptoms during hospitalization predict long-term mortality in patients with severe pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliberti, Stefano; Bellelli, Giuseppe; Belotti, Mauro; Morandi, Alessandro; Messinesi, Grazia; Annoni, Giorgio; Pesci, Alberto

    2015-08-01

    Delirium is common in critically ill patients and impact in-hospital mortality in patients with pneumonia. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of delirium symptoms during hospitalization in patients with severe pneumonia and their impact on one-year mortality. This was an observational, retrospective, cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the respiratory high dependency unit of the San Gerardo University Hospital, Monza, Italy, between January 2009 and December 2012 with a diagnosis of severe pneumonia. A search through the charts looking for ten key words associated with delirium (confusion, disorientation, altered mental status, delirium, agitation, inappropriate behavior, mental status change, inattention, hallucination, lethargy) was performed by a multidisciplinary team. The primary endpoint was mortality at one-year follow-up. Secondary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. A total of 172 patients were enrolled (78 % males; median age 75 years). At least one delirium symptom was detected in 53 patients (31 %) during hospitalization. The prevalence of delirium symptoms was higher among those who died during hospitalization vs. those who survived (44 vs. 27 %, p = 0.049, respectively). Seventy-one patients (46 %) died during the one-year follow-up. The prevalence of at least one delirium symptom was higher among those who died than those who survived during the one-year follow-up (39 vs. 21 %, p = 0.014, respectively). At the multivariable logistic regression analysis, after adjustment for age, comorbidities and severe sepsis, the presence of at least one delirium symptom during hospitalization was an independent predictor of one-year mortality (OR 2.35; 95 % CI 1.13-4.90; p = 0.023). Delirium symptoms are independent predictors of one-year mortality in hospitalized patients with severe pneumonia. Further studies should confirm our results using prospective methods of collecting data.

  16. Association between socioeconomic status, surgical treatment and mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dik, V K; Aarts, M J; Van Grevenstein, W M U; Koopman, M; Van Oijen, M G H; Lemmens, V E; Siersema, P D

    2014-08-01

    High socioeconomic status is associated with better survival in colorectal cancer (CRC). This study investigated whether socioeconomic status is associated with differences in surgical treatment and mortality in patients with CRC. Patients diagnosed with stage I-III CRC between 2005 and 2010 in the Eindhoven Cancer Registry area in the Netherlands were included. Socioeconomic status was determined at a neighbourhood level by combining the mean household income and the mean value of the housing. Some 4422 patients with colonic cancer and 2314 with rectal cancer were included. Patients with colonic cancer and high socioeconomic status were operated on with laparotomy (70·7 versus 77·6 per cent; P = 0·017), had laparoscopy converted to laparotomy (15·7 versus 29·5 per cent; P = 0·008) and developed anastomotic leakage or abscess (9·6 versus 12·6 per cent; P = 0·049) less frequently than patients with low socioeconomic status. These differences remained significant after adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics. In rectal cancer, patients with high socioeconomic status were more likely to undergo resection (96·3 versus 93·7 per cent; P = 0·083), but this was not significant in multivariable analysis (odds ratio (OR) 1·44, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·84 to 2·46). The difference in 30-day postoperative mortality in patients with colonic cancer and high and low socioeconomic status (3·6 versus 6·8 per cent; P socioeconomic status have more favourable surgical treatment characteristics than patients with low socioeconomic status. The lower 30-day postoperative mortality found in patients with colonic cancer and high socioeconomic status is largely explained by patient and surgical factors. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Prediction models for the mortality risk in chronic dialysis patients: a systematic review and independent external validation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramspek CL

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Chava L Ramspek,1 Pauline WM Voskamp,1 Frans J van Ittersum,2 Raymond T Krediet,3 Friedo W Dekker,1 Merel van Diepen1 On behalf of the NECOSAD study group 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, 2Department of Nephrology, VU University Medical Center, 3Department of Nephrology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Objective: In medicine, many more prediction models have been developed than are implemented or used in clinical practice. These models cannot be recommended for clinical use before external validity is established. Though various models to predict mortality in dialysis patients have been published, very few have been validated and none are used in routine clinical practice. The aim of the current study was to identify existing models for predicting mortality in dialysis patients through a review and subsequently to externally validate these models in the same large independent patient cohort, in order to assess and compare their predictive capacities.Methods: A systematic review was performed following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA guidelines. To account for missing data, multiple imputation was performed. The original prediction formulae were extracted from selected studies. The probability of death per model was calculated for each individual within the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD. The predictive performance of the models was assessed based on their discrimination and calibration.Results: In total, 16 articles were included in the systematic review. External validation was performed in 1,943 dialysis patients from NECOSAD for a total of seven models. The models performed moderately to well in terms of discrimination, with C-statistics ranging from 0.710 (interquartile range 0.708–0.711 to 0.752 (interquartile range 0.750–0.753 for a time frame of 1 year. According to the calibration, most

  18. Orosomucoid in urine predicts cardiovascular and over-all mortality in patients with Type II diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Merete S; Hommel, E; Magid, E

    2002-01-01

    urinary orosomucoid excretion rate at baseline (odds ratios adjusted for age, sex, duration of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, weight, medication, HbA1 c, plasma creatinine and urinary albumin excretion rate). Urinary albumin excretion rate was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality when...... urinary orosomucoid excretion rate was not included in the analysis. Subgroup analysis revealed that 39 % of the patients with normal urinary albumin excretion rate (n = 251) had increased urinary orosomucoid excretion rates and that these patients had a higher cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.007) than...

  19. Insulin Resistance Predicts Mortality in Nondiabetic Individuals in the U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Ausk, Karlee J.; Boyko, Edward J.; Ioannou, George N.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Insulin resistance is a suspected causative factor in a wide variety of diseases. We aimed to determine whether insulin resistance, estimated by the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), is associated with all-cause or disease-specific mortality among nondiabetic persons in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We determined the association between HOMA-IR and death certificate–based mortality among 5,511 nondiabetic, adult participants of the third U.S. Nati...

  20. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: CD163, a monocyte- and macrophage-specific scavenger receptor, is shed as soluble CD163 (sCD163) during the proinflammatory response. Here, we assessed the association between plasma sCD163 levels and progression to AIDS and all-cause mortality among individuals infected with human.......35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.63], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sCD163 was an independent marker of all-cause mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals, suggesting that monocyte/macrophage activation may play a role in HIV pathogenesis and be a target of intervention....

  1. Large Variations in Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Mortality in Treatment Naïve Hepatitis B Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Maja; Gluud, Lise Lotte; Fialla, Annette Dam

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The complications to chronic hepatitis B (HBV) include incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality. The risk of these complications may vary in different patient groups. AIM: To estimate the incidence and predictors of HCC and in untreated HBV patients. METHODS: Systematic...... of developing HCC increased with HCV coinfection, older age and inflammatory activity. The country of origin did not clearly predict HCC or mortality estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis was the strongest predictor of HCC incidence and mortality. Patients with HBV cirrhosis have a 31-fold increased risk of HCC...

  2. Correcting Mortality for Loss to Follow-Up: A Nomogram Applied to Antiretroviral Treatment Programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egger, Matthias; Spycher, Ben D.; Sidle, John; Weigel, Ralf; Geng, Elvin H.; Fox, Matthew P.; MacPhail, Patrick; van Cutsem, Gilles; Messou, Eugène; Wood, Robin; Nash, Denis; Pascoe, Margaret; Dickinson, Diana; Etard, Jean-François; McIntyre, James A.; Brinkhof, Martin W. G.

    2011-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple

  3. Utility of the plasma level of suPAR in monitoring risk of mortality during TB treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate whether changes in the plasma level of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) can be used to monitor tuberculosis (TB) treatment efficacy. Design: This prospective cohort study included 278 patients diagnosed with active pulmonary TB and followed...... that elevated suPAR level at time of initiation of TB treatment is associated with increased risk of mortality. Furthermore, increased suPAR levels after one month of treatment was associated with increased risk of mortality during the remaining 7-month treatment period....

  4. Myeloperoxidase can differentiate between sepsis and non-infectious SIRS and predicts mortality in intensive care patients with SIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrijver, Irene T; Kemperman, Hans; Roest, Mark; Kesecioglu, Jozef; de Lange, Dylan W

    2017-09-15

    Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a clinical syndrome following inflammation. Clinically, it is difficult to distinguish SIRS following an infection, i.e., sepsis, from non-infectious SIRS. Myeloperoxidase is a hemeprotein stored in the neutrophil azurophilic granules and is one of the main pillars of neutrophil attack. Therefore, we hypothesized that myeloperoxidase can differentiate between sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the intensive care unit (ICU). An observational single-center cohort study was conducted measuring myeloperoxidase in patients with SIRS in the first 48 h after admission. The outcomes were established using predefined definitions. Thirty-day mortality was retrospectively assessed. We found significantly higher levels of myeloperoxidase in patients with sepsis and septic shock compared to patients without sepsis (60 ng/ml versus 43 ng/ml, P = 0.002). Myeloperoxidase levels were related to 30-day mortality (P = 0.032), and high MPO levels on top of a high APACHE IV score further increased mortality risk. We show that myeloperoxidase is a potentially novel biomarker for sepsis in the ICU. Myeloperoxidase could eventually help in diagnosing sepsis and predicting mortality. However, more research is necessary to confirm our results.

  5. Admission cell free DNA levels predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis in intensive care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avital Avriel

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD level at admission measured by a new simplified method.CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome.Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone.CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT, suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making.

  6. Cephalometry and prediction of oral appliance treatment outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Andrew Tze Ming; Darendeliler, M Ali; Petocz, Peter; Cistulli, Peter A

    2012-03-01

    Predicting which patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) will be successfully treated with mandibular advancement splints (MAS) remains elusive. Developing simple daytime measurements and tests to predict treatment outcome would enhance MAS treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of anthropomorphic measurements and cephalometric X-rays in the prediction of MAS treatment outcome in OSA. Anthropomorphic measurements and cephalometric X-rays from 72 OSA patients who had presented to a tertiary referral sleep clinic were analyzed retrospectively. Treatment response was defined as ≥50% reduction in Apnea/Hypopnea Index (AHI; criterion 1); ≥50% reduction and residual AHI less than 20/h (criterion 2); ≥50% reduction in AHI and residual AHI less than 10/h (criterion 3); and ≥50% reduction in AHI and residual AHI less than 5/h (criterion 4). This was done to reflect the differences in the clinical definition of treatment success in the literature. A good response occurred in 56% (40 patients) according to criterion 1; 54% (39 patients) according to criterion 2; 46% (33 patients) according to criterion 3; or 39% (28 patients) according to criterion 4. Age and gender were found to be significant predictors for criteria 1 and 2. Age and soft palate length were found to be significant predictors for criteria 3 and 4. Equations to predict MAS treatment response were derived as equations were to predict final AHI. Certain cephalometric and anthropomorphic measurements impact on MAS treatment outcome. This study adds to the current literature and implies that MAS success is (to some degree) related to anatomical characteristics.

  7. Long term mortality after a single treatment course with X-rays in patients treated for ankylosing spondylitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darby, S.C.; Doll, R.; Gill, S.K.; Smith, P.G.

    1989-01-01

    Mortality up to 1 January 1983 has been studied in 14,106 patients with ankylosing spondylitis given a single course of X-ray treatment during 1935-54. For neoplasms other than leukaemia or colon cancer, mortality was 28% greater than that of members of the general population of England and Wales, and this increase is likely to have been a direct consequence of the treatment. The proportional increase reached a maximum of 71% between 10.0 and 12.4 years after irradiation and then declined. There were only a 7% increase in mortality from these tumours more than 25.0 years after irradiation and only for cancer of the oesophagus was the relative risk significantly raised in this period. Neither the magnitude of the relative risk, nor its temporal pattern following treatment, were greatly influenced by the age of the patient at first treatment. For leukaemia there was a threefold increase in mortality that is also likely to have been due to the radiotherapy. For colon cancer mortality was increased by 30%. For non-neoplastic conditions there was a 51% increase in mortality that was likely to be associated with the disease itself rather than its treatment. (author)

  8. Low ALT blood levels predict long-term all-cause mortality among adults. A historical prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaty, E; Maor, E; Peltz-Sinvani, N; Brom, A; Grinfeld, A; Kivity, S; Segev, S; Sidi, Y; Kessler, T; Sela, B A; Segal, G

    2014-12-01

    Increased blood levels of alanine amino transferase (ALT, also known as SGPT; serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase) serve as a marker of liver injury by various mechanisms. Less is known about the clinical implications associated with low-normal ALT levels. Previous studies showed low ALT levels to be associated with poor long-term outcomes among elderlies, serving as a biomarker for increased incidence of frailty and subsequent risk of mortality. However, it has not been determined yet whether low-normal ALT values might be predictive of frailty and mortality in younger, middle-aged adults. We conducted a historical prospective cohort analysis. A total of 23,506 adults with ALT levels within the normal range, at the mean age of 48 ± 11 years, participating in an annual screening program for preventive medicine, were followed-up for a median period of 8.5 years during which 638 died. Low-normal ALT values (serum ALT activity ALT values may serve as an independent predictive marker for increased long-term mortality in middle-aged adults. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

    2014-01-01

    To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

  10. Malnutrition: a highly predictive risk factor of short-term mortality in elderly presenting to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentile, S; Lacroix, O; Durand, A C; Cretel, E; Alazia, M; Sambuc, R; Bonin-Guillaume, S

    2013-04-01

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality among elderly patients in the 3 months after their visit (T3) to an emergency department (ED). Prospective cohort study. University hospital ED in an urban setting in France. One hundred seventy-three patients aged 75 and older were admitted to the ED over two weeks (18.7% of the 924 ED visits). Of these, 164 patients (94.8%) were included in our study, and 157 (95.7%) of them were followed three months after their ED visit. During the inclusion period (T0), a standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demographic and environmental characteristics, ED visit circumstances, medical conditions and geriatric assessment including functional and nutritional status. Three months after the ED visits (T3), patients or their caregivers were interviewed to collect data on vital status, and ED return or hospitalization. Among the 157 patients followed at T3, 14.6% had died, 19.9% had repeated ED visits, and 63.1% had been hospitalized. The two independent predictive factors for mortality within the 3 months after ED visit were: malnutrition screened by the Mini Nutritional Assessment short-form (MNA-SF) (OR=20.2; 95% CI: 5.74-71.35; pMalnutrition is the strongest independent risk factor predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients visiting the ED, and it was easily detected by MNA-SF and supported from the ED visit.

  11. Mortality is predicted by Comorbidity Polypharmacy score but not Charlson Comorbidity Index in geriatric trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nossaman, Vaughn E; Larsen, Brett E; DiGiacomo, Jody C; Manuelyan, Zara; Afram, Renee; Shukry, Sally; Kang, Amiee Luan; Munnangi, Swapna; Angus, L D George

    2017-09-19

    Increased life expectancy has resulted in more older patients at trauma centers. Traditional assessments of injuries alone may not be sufficient; age, comorbidities, and medications should be considered. 446 older trauma patients were analyzed in two groups, 45-65 years and <65, using Injury Severity Score (ISS), the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS). CCI and CPS were associated with HLOS in patients <65. In patients aged 45-65, only CPS was associated with HLOS. CPS was inversely associated with in-hospital mortality in patients <65, but not patients aged 45-65. CCI score was not associated with in-hospital mortality in either group. Increased CCI and CPS were associated with increased HLOS. In patients over 65, increased CPS was associated with decreased mortality. This could be due to return toward physiologic normalcy in treated patients not seen in their peers with undiagnosed or untreated comorbidities. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY: In an analysis of 446 older trauma patients, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS) were associated with increased hospital length of stay. In patients ≥65, increased CPS had a lower mortality, possibly due to a greater return toward physiologic normalcy not present in their untreated peers. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Predictive factors of neurological complications and one-month mortality after liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eFu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurological complications are common after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT. We aimed to characterize the risk factors associated with neurological complications and mortality among patients who underwent OLT in the post-model for end-stage liver disease (MELD era.Methods: In a retrospective review, we evaluated 227 consecutive patients at the Keck Hospital of the University of Southern California before and after OLT to define the type and frequency of and risk factors for neurological complications and mortality.Results: Neurological complications were common (n=98, with encephalopathy being most frequent (56.8%, followed by tremor (26.5%, hallucinations (11.2%, and seizure (8.2%. Factors associated with neurological complications after OLT included preoperative dialysis, hepatorenal syndrome, renal insufficiency, intra-operative dialysis, preoperative encephalopathy, preoperative mechanical ventilation, and infection. Preoperative infection was an independent predictor of neurological complications (OR 2.83, 1.47 – 5.44. One-month mortality was 8.8% and was independently associated with urgent re-transplant, preoperative intubation, intraoperative arrhythmia, and intraoperative use of multiple pressors.Conclusion: Neurological complications are common in patients undergoing OLT in the post-MELD era, with encephalopathy being most frequent. An improved understanding of the risk factors related to both neurological complications and one-month mortality post-transplantation can better guide perioperative care and help improve outcomes among OLT patients.

  13. External validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for early prediction of mortality in trauma patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel

    2014-01-01

    The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base excess, and

  14. External Validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for Early Prediction of Mortality in Trauma Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel; Reitsma, J.

    Objectives: The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base

  15. Prolonged QT interval predicts cardiac and all-cause mortality in the elderly. The Rotterdam Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. de Bruyne (Martine); A.W. Hoes (Arno); J.A. Kors (Jan); J.H. van Bemmel (Jan); D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); A. Hofman (Albert)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractAIMS: To examine the association between heart-rate corrected QT prolongation and cardiac and all-cause mortality in the population-based Rotterdam Study among men and women aged 55 years or older and to compare the prognostic value of the QT interval, using

  16. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T predicts mortality after hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vestjens, Stefan M T; Spoorenberg, Simone M C; Rijkers, Ger T.; Grutters, Jan C; ten Berg, Jurriën M; Noordzij, Peter G.; Van de Garde, Ewoudt M.W.; Bos, Willem Jan W; Biesma, Douwe H.; Endeman, Henrik; Hardeman, Hans; Heijligenberg, Rik; Meijvis, Sabine C A; Remmelts, Hilde H.F.; van Velzen-Blad, Heleen; Voorn, Paul G P

    2017-01-01

    Background and objective: Mortality after hospitalization with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is high, compared with age-matched controls. Available evidence suggests a strong link with cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to explore the prognostic value of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T

  17. SuPAR predicts postoperative complications and mortality in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hodges, Gethin W; Bang, Casper N; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    . Methods: Baseline plasma suPAR levels were available in 411 patients who underwent AVR surgery during follow-up in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. Cox analyses were used to evaluate suPAR in relation to all-cause mortality and the composite endpoint of postoperative...... complications (all-cause mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke and renal impairment) occurring in the 30-day postoperative period. Results: Patients with initially higher levels of suPAR were at increased risk of postoperative mortality with a HR of 3.5 (95% CI 1.4 to 9.0, P=0.008) and postoperative.......7 (95% CI 1.0 to 7.8, P=0.061); and postoperative complications with a HR of 2.5 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.0, P=0.007) and 2.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.8, P=0.011), respectively. Conclusion: Higher baseline suPAR levels are associated with an increased risk for postoperative complications and mortality in patients...

  18. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  19. Predicting Mechanical Ventilation and Mortality: Early and Late Indicators in Steven-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Anna; Cooney, Ryan; Gamelli, Richard L; Mosier, Michael J

    2016-01-01

    Steven-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are characterized by loss of the epidermis, often accompanied by sloughing of the oral mucosa and airway, which may be associated with the need for mechanical ventilation. We retrospectively examined our SJS and TEN population for factors predictive of the need for mechanical ventilation and mortality. Over more than a 7-year period, 74 subjects of ≥18 years old with biopsy-confirmed SJS-TEN were identified. Variables within the first 3 days of admission and throughout the entire hospital stay were analyzed for their value in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation and mortality. Predictive variables were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of our 74 subjects, 28 (37.8%) required mechanical ventilation and 11 (13.9%) died, all of whom were intubated. Patients requiring ventilation had a significantly higher %TBSA loss of epidermis on admission and progressive epidermal loss after admission. On multivariate analysis, acute kidney injury within the first 3 days of admission and fewer days from symptom onset to admission were statistically significant in predicting need for mechanical ventilation. In addition, the early need for mechanical ventilation, early serum bicarbonate mechanical ventilation in adult TEN subjects is associated with higher mortality. This is the first time that mechanical ventilation has been specifically examined in the recent U.S. SJS and TEN population. The early recognition of patients at risk for ventilation may help guide management, especially in those patients admitted early after symptom development with acute kidney injury and extensive, progressing epidermal loss.

  20. TREATMENT OUTCOME WITH IMPLANT-RETAINED OVERDENTURES .1. CLINICAL FINDINGS AND PREDICTABILITY OF CLINICAL TREATMENT OUTCOME

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    CUNE, MS; DEPUTTER, C; HOOGSTRATEN, J

    This nationwide study was conducted to clinically evaluate treatment with implant-retained overdentures when applied on a large scale and to determine to what degree treatment results could be predicted from patient and treatment characteristics at baseline. A total of 429 patients who had received

  1. Outpatient treatment of acute poisonings in Oslo: poisoning pattern, factors associated with hospitalization, and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lund Cathrine

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most patients with acute poisoning are treated as outpatients worldwide. In Oslo, these patients are treated in a physician-led outpatient clinic with limited diagnostic and treatment resources, which reduces both the costs and emergency department overcrowding. We describe the poisoning patterns, treatment, mortality, factors associated with hospitalization and follow-up at this Emergency Medical Agency (EMA, "Oslo Legevakt", and we evaluate the safety of this current practice. Methods All acute poisonings in adults (> or = 16 years treated at the EMA during one year (April 2008 to April 2009 were included consecutively in an observational study design. The treating physicians completed a standardized form comprising information needed to address the study's aims. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with hospitalization. Results There were 2348 contacts for 1856 individuals; 1157 (62% were male, and the median age was 34 years. The most frequent main toxic agents were ethanol (43%, opioids (22% and CO or fire smoke (10%. The physicians classified 73% as accidental overdoses with substances of abuse taken for recreational purposes, 15% as other accidents (self-inflicted or other and 11% as suicide attempts. Most (91% patients were treated with observation only. The median observation time until discharge was 3.8 hours. No patient developed sequelae or died at the EMA. Seventeen per cent were hospitalized. Gamma-hydroxybutyric acid, respiratory depression, paracetamol, reduced consciousness and suicidal intention were factors associated with hospitalization. Forty-eight per cent were discharged without referral to follow-up. The one-month mortality was 0.6%. Of the nine deaths, five were by new accidental overdose with substances of abuse. Conclusions More than twice as many patients were treated at the EMA compared with all hospitals in Oslo. Despite more than a doubling of

  2. Outpatient treatment of acute poisonings in Oslo: poisoning pattern, factors associated with hospitalization, and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Cathrine; Vallersnes, Odd M; Jacobsen, Dag; Ekeberg, Oivind; Hovda, Knut E

    2012-01-04

    Most patients with acute poisoning are treated as outpatients worldwide. In Oslo, these patients are treated in a physician-led outpatient clinic with limited diagnostic and treatment resources, which reduces both the costs and emergency department overcrowding. We describe the poisoning patterns, treatment, mortality, factors associated with hospitalization and follow-up at this Emergency Medical Agency (EMA, "Oslo Legevakt"), and we evaluate the safety of this current practice. All acute poisonings in adults (> or = 16 years) treated at the EMA during one year (April 2008 to April 2009) were included consecutively in an observational study design. The treating physicians completed a standardized form comprising information needed to address the study's aims. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with hospitalization. There were 2348 contacts for 1856 individuals; 1157 (62%) were male, and the median age was 34 years. The most frequent main toxic agents were ethanol (43%), opioids (22%) and CO or fire smoke (10%). The physicians classified 73% as accidental overdoses with substances of abuse taken for recreational purposes, 15% as other accidents (self-inflicted or other) and 11% as suicide attempts. Most (91%) patients were treated with observation only. The median observation time until discharge was 3.8 hours. No patient developed sequelae or died at the EMA. Seventeen per cent were hospitalized. Gamma-hydroxybutyric acid, respiratory depression, paracetamol, reduced consciousness and suicidal intention were factors associated with hospitalization. Forty-eight per cent were discharged without referral to follow-up. The one-month mortality was 0.6%. Of the nine deaths, five were by new accidental overdose with substances of abuse. More than twice as many patients were treated at the EMA compared with all hospitals in Oslo. Despite more than a doubling of the annual number of poisoned patients treated at the EMA

  3. Prediction of long-term mortality in ICU patients: model validation and assessing the effect of using in-hospital versus long-term mortality on benchmarking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkman, Sylvia; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; de Jonge, Evert; de Keizer, Nicolette F.

    2013-01-01

    To analyze the influence of using mortality 1, 3, and 6 months after intensive care unit (ICU) admission instead of in-hospital mortality on the quality indicator standardized mortality ratio (SMR). A cohort study of 77,616 patients admitted to 44 Dutch mixed ICUs between 1 January 2008 and 1 July

  4. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. Methods We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Results Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (peconometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data. PMID:27536864

  5. Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

    2016-01-01

    Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile ( 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

  6. Predictive value of circulating endothelial microparticles for cardiovascular mortality in end-stage renal failure: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amabile, Nicolas; Guérin, Alain P; Tedgui, Alain; Boulanger, Chantal M; London, Gérard M

    2012-05-01

    Endothelial dysfunction in cardiovascular (CV) diseases is closely associated with increases in plasma level of shed membrane microparticles (MPs) of endothelial origin. As arterial damage is a major contributor to CV mortality, we examined whether or not increases in endothelial microparticles (EMPs) circulating levels could predict outcome in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This prospective pilot study conducted in a community hospital (median follow-up: 50.5 months), included 81 stable haemodialysed ESRD patients (59 ± 14 years; 63% male). Platelet-free plasma obtained 72 h after last dialysis was analysed by flow cytometry, and MPs cellular origin identified as endothelial (CD31+CD41-MPs; EMPs), platelets (CD31+CD41+MPs) or erythrocyte (CD235a+MPs). The main outcome measures were global and CV mortality (fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, acute pulmonary oedema and sudden cardiac death). Non-survivors (n = 24) were older (P < 0.001) and characterized by higher levels of EMPs (P < 0.01) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P < 0.05) and lower diastolic blood pressure (P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significantly higher probability of all-cause (P < 0.001) and CV mortality (P < 0.0001) between the lower and upper EMPs tertiles. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that baseline EMP levels independently predicted all-cause [hazard ratio (HR) = 21.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.23-111.18 per log EMPs/μL; P = 0.0002] and CV mortality (HR = 20.0, 95% CI: 3.86-103.5) per log EMPs/μL; P < 0.0004) after adjustment for confounding factors. EMPs baseline level was a stronger predictor of poor outcome than classical risk factors. This study demonstrates that increased plasma levels of EMPs is a robust independent predictor of severe CV outcome in end-stage renal failure patients.

  7. Prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients by the WHO definition for the metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, G T-C; So, W-Y; Chan, N N; Chan, W-B; Tong, P C-Y; Li, J; Yeung, V; Chow, C-C; Ozaki, R; Ma, R C-W; Cockram, C S; Chan, J C-N

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MES) in type 2 diabetic patients and the predictive values of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) definitions and the individual components of the MES on total and cardiovascular mortality. A prospective analysis of a consecutive cohort of 5202 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients recruited between July 1994 and April 2001. The prevalence of the MES was 49.2-58.1% depending on the use of various criteria. There were 189 deaths (men: 100 and women: 89) in these 5205 patients during a median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 2.1 (0.3-3.6 years). Of these, 164 (87%) were classified as cardiovascular deaths. Using the NCEP criterion, patients with MES had a death rate similar to those without (3.51 vs. 3.85%). By contrast, based on the WHO criteria, patients with MES had a higher mortality rate than those without (4.3 vs. 2.4%, p = 0.002). Compared to patients with neither NCEP- nor WHO-defined MES, only the group with MES defined by the WHO, but not NCEP, criterion had significantly higher mortality rate (2.6 vs. 6.8%, p hypertension, low BMI and albuminuria were the key predictors for these adverse events. In Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, the WHO criterion has a better discriminative power over the NCEP criterion for predicting death. Among the various components of the MES defined either by WHO or NCEP, hypertension, albuminuria and low BMI were the main predictors of cardiovascular and total mortality.

  8. Circulating cytokine/inhibitor profiles reshape the understanding of the SIRS/CARS continuum in sepsis and predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuchowski, Marcin F; Welch, Kathy; Siddiqui, Javed; Remick, Daniel G

    2006-08-01

    Mortality in sepsis remains unacceptably high and attempts to modulate the inflammatory response failed to improve survival. Previous reports postulated that the sepsis-triggered immunological cascade is multimodal: initial systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS; excessive pro-, but no/low anti-inflammatory plasma mediators), intermediate homeostasis with a mixed anti-inflammatory response syndrome (MARS; both pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators) and final compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome (CARS; excessive anti-, but no/low proinflammatory mediators). To verify this, we examined the evolution of the inflammatory response during the early phase of murine sepsis by repetitive blood sampling of septic animals. Increased plasma concentrations of proinflammatory (IL-6, TNF, IL-1beta, KC, MIP-2, MCP-1, and eotaxin) and anti-inflammatory (TNF soluble receptors, IL-10, IL-1 receptor antagonist) cytokines were observed in early deaths (days 1-5). These elevations occurred simultaneously for both the pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators. Plasma levels of IL-6 (26 ng/ml), TNF-alpha (12 ng/ml), KC (33 ng/ml), MIP-2 (14 ng/ml), IL-1 receptor antagonist (65 ng/ml), TNF soluble receptor I (3 ng/ml), and TNF soluble receptor II (14 ng/ml) accurately predicted mortality within 24 h. In contrast, these parameters were not elevated in either the late-deaths (day 6-28) or survivors. Surprisingly, either pro- or anti-inflammatory cytokines were also reliable in predicting mortality up to 48 h before outcome. These data demonstrate that the initial inflammatory response directly correlates to early but not late sepsis mortality. This multifaceted response questions the use of a simple proinflammatory cytokine measurement for classifying the inflammatory status during sepsis.

  9. Predicting Social Anxiety Treatment Outcome based on Therapeutic Email Conversations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; Berger, Thomas; Schulz, Ava; Stolz, Timo; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Predicting therapeutic outcome in the mental health domain is of utmost importance to enable therapists to provide the most effective treatment to a patient. Using information from the writings of a patient can potentially be a valuable source of information, especially now that more and more

  10. Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Full Length Research Paper. Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re-use options. Kyeyune Simonpeter and Mulamba Peter*. Department of Agricultural and Bio-Systems Engineering, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda. Received 22 August, 2012; Accepted 29 December, 2014.

  11. Basic geriatric assessment does not predict in-hospital mortality after PEG placement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smoliner Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG is an established procedure for long-term nutrition. However, studies have underlined the importance of proper patient selection as mortality has been shown to be relatively high in acute illness and certain patient groups, amongst others geriatric patients. Objective of the study was to gather information about geriatric patients receiving PEG and to identify risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after PEG placement. Methods All patients from the GEMIDAS database undergoing percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in acute geriatric wards from 2006 to 2010 were included in a retrospective database analysis. Data on age, gender, main diagnosis leading to hospital admission, death in hospital, care level, and legal incapacitation were extracted from the main database of the Geriatric Minimum Data Set. Self-care capacity was assessed by the Barthel index, and cognitive status was rated with the Mini Mental State Examination or subjectively judged by the clinician. Descriptive statistics and group comparisons were chosen according to data distribution and scale of measurement, logistic regression analysis was performed to examine influence of various factors on hospital mortality. Results A total of 1232 patients (60.4% women with a median age of 82 years (range 60 to 99 years were included. The mean Barthel index at admission was 9.5 ± 14.0 points. Assessment of cognitive status was available in about half of the patients (n = 664, with 20% being mildly impaired and almost 70% being moderately to severely impaired. Stroke was the most common main diagnosis (55.2%. In-hospital mortality was 12.8%. In a logistic regression analysis, old age (odds ratio (OR 1.030, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.003-1.056, male sex (OR 1.741, 95% CI 1.216-2.493, and pneumonia (OR 2.641, 95% CI 1.457-4.792 or the diagnosis group ‘miscellaneous disease’ (OR 1.864, 95% CI 1

  12. Gastroschisis with intestinal atresia--predictive value of antenatal diagnosis and outcome of postnatal treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghionzoli, Marco; James, Catherine P; David, Anna L; Shah, Dimple; Tan, Aileen W C; Iskaros, Joseph; Drake, David P; Curry, Joseph I; Kiely, Edward M; Cross, Kate; Eaton, Simon; De Coppi, Paolo; Pierro, Agostino

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate (1) the predictive value of fetal bowel dilatation (FBD) for intestinal atresia in gastroschisis and (2) the postnatal management and outcome of this condition. A retrospective review of all gastroschisis cases diagnosed in our fetal medicine unit between 1992 and 2010 and treated postnatally in our center was performed. One hundred thirty cases had full postnatal data available. Intestinal atresia was found at surgery in 14 neonates (jejunum, n = 6; ileum, n = 3; ascending colon, n = 3; multiple, n = 2). Polyhydramnios and FBD were more likely in the atresia group compared with infants with no atresia (P = .0003 and P = .005, respectively). Fetal bowel dilatation had 99% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 0.9-0.99) and 17% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.3) for atresia. Treatment of intestinal atresia included primary anastomosis (n = 5), delayed anastomosis (n = 2), and stoma formation followed by anastomosis (n = 7). Infants with atresia had longer duration of parenteral nutrition, higher incidence of sepsis, and cholestasis compared with infants with no atresia (P = .0003). However, the presence of atresia did not increase mortality. Polyhydramnios and FBD are associated with atresia. Absence of FBD in gastroschisis excludes intestinal atresia. In our experience, atresia is associated with a longer duration of parenteral nutrition but does not influence mortality. These findings may be relevant for antenatal counseling. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A long-term follow-up study of mortality in transsexuals receiving treatment with cross-sex hormones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asscheman, Henk; Giltay, Erik J; Megens, Jos A J; de Ronde, W Pim; van Trotsenburg, Michael A A; Gooren, Louis J G

    2011-04-01

    Adverse effects of long-term cross-sex hormone administration to transsexuals are not well documented. We assessed mortality rates in transsexual subjects receiving long-term cross-sex hormones. A cohort study with a median follow-up of 18.5 years at a university gender clinic. Methods Mortality data and the standardized mortality rate were compared with the general population in 966 male-to-female (MtF) and 365 female-to-male (FtM) transsexuals, who started cross-sex hormones before July 1, 1997. Follow-up was at least 1 year. MtF transsexuals received treatment with different high-dose estrogen regimens and cyproterone acetate 100 mg/day. FtM transsexuals received parenteral/oral testosterone esters or testosterone gel. After surgical sex reassignment, hormonal treatment was continued with lower doses. In the MtF group, total mortality was 51% higher than in the general population, mainly from increased mortality rates due to suicide, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, cardiovascular disease, drug abuse, and unknown cause. No increase was observed in total cancer mortality, but lung and hematological cancer mortality rates were elevated. Current, but not past ethinyl estradiol use was associated with an independent threefold increased risk of cardiovascular death. In FtM transsexuals, total mortality and cause-specific mortality were not significantly different from those of the general population. The increased mortality in hormone-treated MtF transsexuals was mainly due to non-hormone-related causes, but ethinyl estradiol may increase the risk of cardiovascular death. In the FtM transsexuals, use of testosterone in doses used for hypogonadal men seemed safe.

  14. Life-years gained from coronary heart disease mortality reduction in Scotland: prevention or treatment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchley, J A; Capewell, S; Unal, B

    2003-06-01

    Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) death rates have fallen considerably in many countries. We estimated the life-years-gained (LYG) in Scotland between 1975 and 1994 attributable to cardiology treatments, and population reductions in major CHD risk factors, using a previously validated mortality model. This combines published effectiveness data with information on uptake of CHD treatments; risk factor trends; and median survival by age and sex. Compared with 1975, there were 4,536 fewer CHD deaths in 1994, resulting in approximately 48,016 LYG among those aged 45-84 (maximum estimate 53,317; minimum estimate 36,867). Medical and surgical treatments for CHD patients gained approximately 12,025 life-years; the largest contribution coming from pharmacologic secondary prevention. Population reductions in major risk factors (smoking, cholesterol, and blood pressure) accounted for some 35,991 LYG, reductions in smoking accounted for over 50% of this. Modern cardiologic treatments gained many thousands of life-years in Scotland, but modest reductions in risk factors gained almost three times as many life-years.

  15. Development of a metabolites risk score for one-year mortality risk prediction in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontana, Andrea; Copetti, Massimiliano; Di Gangi, Iole Maria; Mazza, Tommaso; Tavano, Francesca; Gioffreda, Domenica; Mattivi, Fulvio; Andriulli, Angelo; Vrhovsek, Urska; Pazienza, Valerio

    2016-02-23

    Survival among patients with adenocarcinoma pancreatic cancer (PDCA) is highly variable, which ranges from 0% to 20% at 5 years. Such a wide range is due to tumor size and stage, as well other patients' characteristics. We analyzed alterations in the metabolomic profile, of PDCA patients, which are potentially predictive of patient's one-year mortality. A targeted metabolomic assay was conducted on serum samples of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Statistical analyses were performed only for those 27 patients with information on vital status at follow-up and baseline clinical features. Random Forest analysis was performed to identify all metabolites and clinical variables with the best capability to predict patient's mortality risk at one year. Regression coefficients were estimated from multivariable Weibull survival model, which included the most associated metabolites. Such coefficients were used as weights to build a metabolite risk score (MRS) which ranged from 0 (lowest mortality risk) to 1 (highest mortality risk). The stability of these weights were evaluated performing 10,000 bootstrap resamplings. MRS was built as a weighted linear combination of the following five metabolites: Valine (HR = 0.62, 95%CI: 0.11-1.71 for each standard deviation (SD) of 98.57), Sphingomyeline C24:1 (HR = 2.66, 95%CI: 1.30-21.09, for each SD of 20.67), Lysine (HR = 0.36, 95%CI: 0.03-0.77, for each SD of 51.73), Tripentadecanoate TG15 (HR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.01-0.82, for each SD of 2.88) and Symmetric dimethylarginine (HR = 2.24, 95%CI: 1.28-103.08, for each SD of 0.62), achieving a very high discrimination ability (survival c-statistic of 0.855, 95%CI: 0.816-0.894). Such association was still present even after adjusting for the most associated clinical variables (confounders). The mass spectrometry-based metabolomic profiling of serum represents a valid tool for discovering novel candidate biomarkers with prognostic ability to predict one-year mortality risk in patients

  16. Clinical picture and risk prediction of short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Lassus, Johan; Sionis, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    . Patients with either acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or non-ACS aetiologies were enrolled within 6 h from detection of cardiogenic shock defined as severe hypotension with clinical signs of hypoperfusion and/or serum lactate >2 mmol/L despite fluid resuscitation (n = 219, mean age 67, 74% men). Data...... on clinical presentation, management, and biochemical variables were compared between different aetiologies of shock. Systolic blood pressure was on average 78 mmHg (standard deviation 14 mmHg) and mean arterial pressure 57 (11) mmHg. The most common cause (81%) was ACS (68% ST-elevation myocardial infarction...... causes account for one-fifth of cases with shock. ACS is independently associated with in-hospital mortality. The CardShock risk Score, consisting of seven common variables, easily stratifies risk of short-term mortality. It might facilitate early decision-making in intensive care or guide patient...

  17. Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HRstudies showed a pattern of protective effects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

  18. Effects of Oral Nutritional Supplements on Mortality, Missed Dialysis Treatments, and Nutritional Markers in Hemodialysis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, Debbie; Brunelli, Steven M; Brosch, Becky; Wheeler, Jane; Nissenson, Allen R

    2017-12-06

    Protein-energy wasting is common in end-stage renal disease patients undergoing dialysis and is strongly associated with mortality and adverse outcomes. Intradialytic oral nutritional supplements (ONS) reduce risk of mortality in these patients. Large studies characterizing the impact of ONS on other outcomes are lacking. We assessed the associations between administration of ONS and clinical and nutritional outcomes. Retrospective evaluation of a pilot program providing ONS to patients at a large dialysis organization in the United States. The pilot program provided ONS to in-center hemodialysis patients with serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL at 408 facilities. ONS patients were compared to matched controls with serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL, identified from facilities not participating in the ONS program (n = 3,374 per group). Receipt of ONS. Death, missed dialysis treatments, hospitalizations, serum albumin, normalized protein catabolic rate, and postdialysis body weight were abstracted from large dialysis organization electronic medical records. There was a 69% reduction in deaths (hazard ratio = 0.31; 95% confidence interval = 0.25-0.39), and 33% fewer missed dialysis treatments (incidence rate ratio = 0.77; 95% confidence interval = 0.73-0.82) among ONS patients compared to controls (P nutritional indices were mixed: serum albumin was lower, whereas normalized protein catabolic rate values, a surrogate for dietary protein intake, and postdialysis body weights were higher for ONS patients compared to controls during follow-up. Our evaluation confirmed the beneficial effects of ONS in reducing mortality and improving some indices of nutritional status for hypoalbuminemic hemodialysis patients. We also report the novel finding that ONS can reduce the number of missed dialysis treatments. These results support the use of intradialytic ONS as an effective intervention to improve the outcomes in hemodialysis patients with low serum albumin. Copyright © 2017

  19. Balancing treatment allocations by clinician or center in randomized trials allows unacceptable levels of treatment prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hills, Robert K; Gray, Richard; Wheatley, Keith

    2009-08-01

    Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for comparing treatments because they avoid the selection bias that might arise if clinicians were free to choose which treatment a patient would receive. In practice, allocation of treatments in randomized controlled trials is often not wholly random with various 'pseudo-randomization' methods, such as minimization or balanced blocks, used to ensure good balance between treatments within potentially important prognostic or predictive subgroups. These methods avoid selection bias so long as full concealment of the next treatment allocation is maintained. There is concern, however, that pseudo-random methods may allow clinicians to predict future treatment allocations from previous allocation history, particularly if allocations are balanced by clinician or center. We investigate here to what extent treatment prediction is possible. Using computer simulations of minimization and balanced block randomizations, the success rates of various prediction strategies were investigated for varying numbers of stratification variables, including the patient's clinician. Prediction rates for minimization and balanced block randomization typically exceed 60% when clinician is included as a stratification variable and, under certain circumstances, can exceed 80%. Increasing the number of clinicians and other stratification variables did not greatly reduce the prediction rates. Without clinician as a stratification variable, prediction rates are poor unless few clinicians participate. Prediction rates are unacceptably high when allocations are balanced by clinician or by center. This could easily lead to selection bias that might suggest spurious, or mask real, treatment effects. Unless treatment is blinded, randomization should not be balanced by clinician (or by center), and clinician-center effects should be allowed for instead by retrospectively stratified analyses. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese

  20. Failure to Clear Elevated Lactate Predicts 24-Hour Mortality in Trauma Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezman, Zachary D.W.; Comer, Angela C.; Smith, Gordon S.; Narayan, Mayur; Scalea, Thomas M.; Hirshon, Jon Mark

    2015-01-01

    Background Lactate clearance is a standard resuscitation goal in patients in non-traumatic shock but has not been investigated adequately as a tool to identify trauma patients at risk of dying. Our objective was to determine if trauma patients with impaired lactate clearance have a higher 24-hour mortality rate than patients whose lactate concentration normalizes. Methods A retrospective chart review identified patients who were admitted directly from the scene of injury to an urban trauma center between 2010 and 2013 and who had at least one lactate concentration measurement within 24 hours. Transfers, patients without lactate measurement, and those who were dead on arrival were excluded. Of the 26,545 screened patients, 18,304 constituted the initial lactate measurement population and 3,887 were the lactate clearance cohorts. Results Initial lactate had an area-under-the-receiver operating curve of 0.86 and 0.73 for mortality at 24 hours and in-hospital, respectively. An initial concentration ≥3 mmol/L had sensitivity of 0.86 and specificity of 0.73 for mortality at 24 hours. The mortality rate among patients with elevated lactate concentrations (n=2381, 5.6±2.8 mmol/L) that did not decline to 25 (OR=8.2; CI, 2.7–25.2). Conclusions Failure to clear lactate is a strong negative prognostic marker after injury. An initial lactate measurement combined with a second measurement for high-risk individuals might constitute a useful method of risk-stratifying injured patients. PMID:26402531

  1. Chronic Bronchitis Before Age 50 Years Predicts Incident Airflow Limitation and Mortality Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Stefano; Sherrill, Duane L.; Venker, Claire; Ceccato, Christina M.; Halonen, Marilyn; Martinez, Fernando D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous studies on the relation of chronic bronchitis to incident airflow limitation and all-cause mortality have provided conflicting results, with positive findings reported mainly by studies that included populations of young adults. We sought to determine whether having chronic cough and sputum production in the absence of airflow limitation is associated with onset of airflow limitation, all-cause mortality, and serum levels of CRP and IL-8, and whether subjects’ age influences these relations. Methods We identified 1412 participants in the long-term Tucson Epidemiological Study of Airway Obstructive Disease who at enrollment (1972–73) were 21–80 years old and had FEV1/FVC≥70% and no asthma. Chronic bronchitis was defined as cough and phlegm production on most days for ≥three months in ≥two consecutive years. Incidence of airflow limitation was defined as the first follow-up survey with FEV1/FVC<70%. Serum IL-8 and CRP levels were measured in cryopreserved samples from the enrollment survey. Results After adjusting for covariates, chronic bronchitis at enrollment increased significantly the risk for incident airflow limitation and all-cause mortality among subjects <50 years old (Hazard Ratios, 95% CI: 2.2, 1.3–3.8; and 2.2, 1.3–3.8; respectively), but not among subjects ≥50 years old (0.9, 0.6–1.4; and 1.0, 0.7–1.3). Chronic bronchitis was associated with increased IL-8 and CRP serum levels only among subjects <50 years old. Conclusions Among adults <50 years old, chronic bronchitis unaccompanied by airflow limitation may represent an early marker of susceptibility to the effects of cigarette smoking on systemic inflammation and long-term risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and all-cause mortality. PMID:19581277

  2. Do treatment quality indicators predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigory Sidorenkov

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Landmark clinical trials have led to optimal treatment recommendations for patients with diabetes. Whether optimal treatment is actually delivered in practice is even more important than the efficacy of the drugs tested in trials. To this end, treatment quality indicators have been developed and tested against intermediate outcomes. No studies have tested whether these treatment quality indicators also predict hard patient outcomes. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using data collected from >10.000 diabetes patients in the Groningen Initiative to Analyze Type 2 Treatment (GIANTT database and Dutch Hospital Data register. Included quality indicators measured glucose-, lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status and treatment intensification. Hard patient outcome was the composite of cardiovascular events and all-cause death. Associations were tested using Cox regression adjusting for confounding, reporting hazard ratios (HR with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Lipid and albuminuria treatment status, but not blood pressure lowering treatment status, were associated with the composite outcome (HR = 0.77, 0.67-0.88; HR = 0.75, 0.59-0.94. Glucose lowering treatment status was associated with the composite outcome only in patients with an elevated HbA1c level (HR = 0.72, 0.56-0.93. Treatment intensification with glucose-lowering but not with lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering drugs was associated with the outcome (HR = 0.73, 0.60-0.89. CONCLUSION: Treatment quality indicators measuring lipid- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status are valid quality measures, since they predict a lower risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with diabetes. The quality indicators for glucose-lowering treatment should only be used for restricted populations with elevated HbA1c levels. Intriguingly, the tested indicators for blood pressure-lowering treatment did not predict patient

  3. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin predicts myocardial dysfunction and mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Biao; Chen, Gang; Li, Jia; Zeng, Yuanying; Wu, Yunfu; Yan, Xiaoye

    2017-01-15

    This study examines the clinical utility of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) as an indicator of myocardial dysfunction and mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock. We designed a prospective cohort study in an intensive care unit, and 53 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were included. Data were used to determine a relationship between NGAL and the development of myocardial dysfunction and mortality. These associations were determined by the Mann-Whitney test, multiple logistic regression, plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan-Meier curves and Spearman test. The High NGAL group had higher need for inotropic/vasopressor support (92% vs. 52%, p=0.0186), higher incidence of regional wall motion abnormalities (46% vs. 13%, p=0.0093), higher B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level (p=0.0197), higher cardiac troponin I (cTnI) level (p=0.0016), lower ejection fraction (EF) (pseptic shock was significant. High plasma NGAL correlates with high mortality and myocardial dysfunction in severe sepsis and septic shock. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The Impact of Exercise on Cancer Mortality, Recurrence, and Treatment-Related Adverse Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormie, Prue; Zopf, Eva M; Zhang, Xiaochen; Schmitz, Kathryn H

    2017-01-01

    The combination of an increasing number of new cancer cases and improving survival rates has led to a large and rapidly growing population with unique health-care requirements. Exercise has been proposed as a strategy to help address the issues faced by cancer patients. Supported by a growing body of research, major health organizations commonly identify the importance of incorporating exercise in cancer care and advise patients to be physically active. This systematic review comprehensively summarizes the available epidemiologic and randomized controlled trial evidence investigating the role of exercise in the management of cancer. Literature searches focused on determining the potential impact of exercise on 1) cancer mortality and recurrence and 2) adverse effects of cancer and its treatment. A total of 100 studies were reviewed involving thousands of individual patients whose exercise behavior was assessed following the diagnosis of any type of cancer. Compared with patients who performed no/less exercise, patients who exercised following a diagnosis of cancer were observed to have a lower relative risk of cancer mortality and recurrence and experienced fewer/less severe adverse effects. The findings of this review support the view that exercise is an important adjunct therapy in the management of cancer. Implications on cancer care policy and practice are discussed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Tetanus in adults: clinical presentation, treatment and predictors of mortality in a tertiary hospital in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amare, Amanuel; Melkamu, Yilma; Mekonnen, Desalew

    2012-06-15

    Tetanus remains a major health problem in the developing world. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical presentation, risk factors, complications, treatment, outcome and predictors of death in patients with tetanus. Patients aged ≥ 13 years admitted to Tikur Anbessa Hospital from June 2001 to May 2009 with the diagnosis of tetanus were included in this retrospective study. Data from 68 patients were analyzed; majority (77.9%) were males, the mean age was 33.8 years. None of them was vaccinated for tetanus. The types were: generalized (91.2%), cephalic (7.4%), localized (1.5%), severe (72.1%), moderate (19.1%) and mild (8.8%). One or more complication(s) occurred in 75%; dysautonomia (58.8%), pneumonia (44.1%) and hypoxemia (41.2%). Tracheostomy and mechanical ventilation was used in 45.6% and 11.8%, respectively. Case-fatality was 35.3%. Predictors of mortality were age ≥ 40 years, duration of symptoms prior to presentation dysautonomia. The cause of death was early acute respiratory failure due to uncontrolled spasms in 87.5%. Most tetanus patients were young males and there was high case fatality due to acute respiratory failure. Age ≥ 40 years and dysautonomia were independent predictors of mortality. Preventing tetanus by vaccination and treating patients in a well equipped ICU is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Identification of enhanced cytokine generation following sepsis. Dream of magic bullet for mortality prediction and therapeutic evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Hamishehkar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available "n  "nBackground and the purpose of the study: sepsis is one of the most widespread and lethal disease in Intensive Care Units (ICU. Based on pathophisyology of sepsis, it seems that routine laboratory tests combined with analysis of pro-inflammatory cytokines plasma levels, help clinicians to have more information about disease progress and its correct management. "nMethods:This was a prospective observational study to determine the predictive role of Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interleukin (IL-1β and IL-6 as three main pro-inflammatory cytokines and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA as two scoring systems in mortality of critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Fifty and five patients with criteria of severe sepsis were included in this study. An exclusion criterion was post Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR status. Cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 were assayed in the first, third and seventh days in blood of patients. Results and major conclusion:Among three measured cytokines, sequential levels of TNF-α and IL-6 showed significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors. IL-6 had a good correlation with outcome and scoring systems during the period of this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve indicated that APACHE II (0.858, 0.848, 0.861 and IL-6 (0.797, 0.799, 0.899 had discriminative power in prediction of mortality during sequental measured days. Multiple logestic regression analysis identified that evaluation of APACHE II and TNF-α in the first day and APACHE II and IL-6 in the third and seventh days of severe septic patients are independent outcome predictors. Results of this study suggest that IL-6 and APACHE II are useful cytokine and scoring systems respectively in prediction of mortality and clinical evaluation of severe septic patients.

  7. Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayode Gbenga A

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria. Methods Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve. Results This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for > 18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation. Conclusions This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival.

  8. Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Mark E; Ichikawa, Laura; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Miglioretti, Diana L; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tice, Jeffery; Vacek, Pamela M; Gierach, Gretchen L

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer risk prediction models are used to plan clinical trials and counsel women; however, relationships of predicted risks of breast cancer incidence and prognosis after breast cancer diagnosis are unknown. Using largely pre-diagnostic information from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) for 37,939 invasive breast cancers (1996-2007), we estimated 5-year breast cancer risk (models: BCSC 1-year risk model (BCSC-1; adapted to 5-year predictions); Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT); and BCSC 5-year risk model (BCSC-5). Breast cancer-specific mortality post-diagnosis (range: 1-13 years; median: 5.4-5.6 years) was related to predicted risk of developing breast cancer using unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models, and in age-stratified (35-44; 45-54; 55-69; 70-89 years) models adjusted for continuous age, BCSC registry, calendar period, income, mode of presentation, stage and treatment. Mean age at diagnosis was 60 years. Of 6,021 deaths, 2,993 (49.7%) were ascribed to breast cancer. In unadjusted case-only analyses, predicted breast cancer risk ≥1.67% versus cancer death; BCSC-1: hazard ratio (HR) = 0.82 (95% CI = 0.75-0.90); BCRAT: HR = 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.81) and BCSC-5: HR = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.75-0.94). Age-stratified, adjusted models showed similar, although mostly non-significant HRs. Among women ages 55-69 years, HRs approximated 1.0. Generally, higher predicted risk was inversely related to percentages of cancers with unfavorable prognostic characteristics, especially among women 35-44 years. Among cases assessed with three models, higher predicted risk of developing breast cancer was not associated with greater risk of breast cancer death; thus, these models would have limited utility in planning studies to evaluate breast cancer mortality reduction strategies. Further, when offering women counseling, it may be useful to note that high predicted risk of developing breast cancer does not imply that if cancer develops it will

  9. The benefit of tumor molecular profiling on predicting treatments for colorectal adenocarcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Philip; Alifrangis, Costi; Chandrasinghe, Pramodh; Cereser, Biancastella; Del Bel Belluz, Lisa; Leo, Cosimo Alex; Moderau, Nina; Tabassum, Neha; Warusavitarne, Janindra; Krell, Jonathan; Stebbing, Justin

    2018-02-16

    We evaluated the benefit of tailoring treatments for a colorectal adenocarcinoma cancer cohort according to tumor molecular profiles, by analyzing data collected on patient responses to treatments that were guided by a tumor profiling technology from Caris Life Sciences. DNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry were the main tests that predictions were based upon, but also fragment analysis, and in situ hybridization. The status of the IHC biomarker for the thymidylate synthase receptor was a good indicator for future survival. Data collected for the clinical treatments of 95 colorectal adenocarcinoma patients was retrospectively divided into two groups: the first group was given drugs that always matched recommended treatments as suggested by the tumor molecular profiling service; the second group received at least one drug after profiling that was predicted to lack benefit. In the matched treatment group, 19% of patients were deceased at the end of monitoring compared to 49% in the unmatched group, indicating a benefit in mortality by tumor molecular profiling colorectal adenocarcinoma patients.

  10. Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiro Nishi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking, symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.14-2.80] than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018. The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30] was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549. CONCLUSIONS: The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than

  11. Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Akihiro; Kawachi, Ichiro; Shirai, Kokoro; Hirai, Hiroshi; Jeong, Seungwon; Kondo, Katsunori

    2012-01-01

    Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH) for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES) 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking), symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.14-2.80]) than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018). The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30]) was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549). The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than females.

  12. Mortality prediction in intensive care units with the Super ICU Learner Algorithm (SICULA): a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirracchio, Romain; Petersen, Maya L; Carone, Marco; Rigon, Matthieu Resche; Chevret, Sylvie; van der Laan, Mark J

    2015-01-01

    Improved mortality prediction for patients in intensive care units is a big challenge. Many severity scores have been proposed, but findings of validation studies have shown that they are not adequately calibrated. The Super ICU Learner Algorithm (SICULA), an ensemble machine learning technique that uses multiple learning algorithms to obtain better prediction performance, does at least as well as the best member of its library. We aimed to assess whether the Super Learner could provide a new mortality prediction algorithm for patients in intensive care units, and to assess its performance compared with other scoring systems. From January, 2001, to December, 2008, we used the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database (version 26) including all patients admitted to an intensive care unit at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Centre, Boston, MA, USA. We assessed the calibration, discrimination, and risk classification of predicted hospital mortality based on Super Learner compared with SAPS-II, APACHE-II, and SOFA. We calculated performance measures with cross-validation to avoid making biased assessments. Our proposed score was then externally validated on a dataset of 200 randomly selected patients admitted at the intensive care unit of Hôpital Européen Georges-Pompidou, Paris, France, between Sept 1, 2013, and June, 30, 2014. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables were the same as those included in the SAPS II score. 24,508 patients were included, with median SAPS-II of 38 (IQR 27-51) and median SOFA of 5 (IQR 2-8). 3002 of 24,508 (12%) patients died in the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Centre. We produced two sets of predictions based on the Super Learner; the first based on the 17 variables as they appear in the SAPS-II score (SL1), and the second, on the original, untransformed variables (SL2). The two versions yielded average predicted probabilities of death of 0·12 (IQR 0·02-0·16) and 0

  13. High mortality rates occur in copper deficient rats exposed to a normally nonlethal endotoxin treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DiSilvestro, R.; Joseph, E.; Yang, F.L. (Ohio State Univ., Columbus (United States))

    1991-03-15

    Endotoxin hepatotoxicity is proposed to occur by processes which could be retarded by 3 copper enzymes: ceruloplasmin, Cu-Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD), and extracellular (EC) SOD. Weanling rats fed low copper for 40 days showed low activity levels of these enzymes, and a very high mortality rate 20 h after endotoxin injection. No rats fed adequate copper died from this treatment. In addition, serum transaminase activities, indicators of liver damage, were elevated by 3 h to a greater extent in the deficient rats than in the adequates. The high susceptibility to endotoxemia in the deficient rats was not associated with low hepatic glutathione, high liver malondialedhyde, nor restricted metallothionein induction 3 h after endotoxin injection. Endotoxin reduced serum EC SOD activities in adequate and deficient rats, but final values were lower in the latter. Studies on roles of specific copper enzymes in resistance to endotoxemia are currently underway.

  14. A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Basaldúa, Santiago; Blanco, Jesús; Aguilar, Gerardo; Toral, Darío; Zavala, Elizabeth; Romera, Miguel A; González-Díaz, Gumersindo; Nogal, Frutos Del; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Ramos, Luís; Macías, Santiago; Kacmarek, Robert M

    2011-04-01

    Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

  15. Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baré, Marisa; Alcantara, Manuel Jesús; Gil, Maria José; Collera, Pablo; Pont, Marina; Escobar, Antonio; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Redondo, Maximino; Briones, Eduardo; Dujovne, Paula; Quintana, Jose Maria

    2018-01-29

    To validate and recalibrate the CR- POSSUM model and compared its discriminatory capacity with other European models such as POSSUM, P-POSSUM, AFC or IRCS to predict operative mortality in surgery for colorectal cancer. Prospective multicenter cohort study from 22 hospitals in Spain. We included patients undergoing planned or urgent surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancers between June 2010 and December 2012 (N = 2749). Clinical data were gathered through medical chart review. We validated and recalibrated the predictive models using logistic regression techniques. To calculate the discriminatory power of each model, we estimated the areas under the curve - AUC (95% CI). We also assessed the calibration of the models by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. In-hospital mortality was 1.5% and 30-day mortality, 1.7%. In the validation process, the discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting in-hospital mortality was 73.6%. However, in the recalibration process, the AUCs improved slightly: the CR-POSSUM reached 75.5% (95% CI: 67.3-83.7). The discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting 30-day mortality was 74.2% (95% CI: 67.1-81.2) after recalibration; among the other models the POSSUM had the greatest discriminatory power, with an AUC of 77.0% (95% CI: 68.9-85.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good fit for all the recalibrated models. The CR-POSSUM and the other models showed moderate capacity to discriminate the risk of operative mortality in our context, where the actual operative mortality is low. Nevertheless the IRCS might better predict in-hospital mortality, with fewer variables, while the CR-POSSUM could be slightly better for predicting 30-day mortality. Registered at: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

  16. Cost-effectiveness of treatments reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Ireland, 2000 to 2010.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bennett, Kathleen

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is associated with a large burden of disease in Ireland and is responsible for more than 6000 deaths annually. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of specific CHD treatments in Ireland. METHODS: Irish epidemiological data on patient numbers and median survival in specific groups, plus the uptake, effectiveness, and costs of specific interventions, all stratified by age and sex, were incorporated into a previously validated CHD mortality model, the IMPACT model. This model calculates the number of life-years gained (LYGs) by specific cardiology interventions to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per LYG for each intervention. RESULTS: In 2000, medical and surgical treatments together prevented or postponed approximately 1885 CHD deaths in patients aged 25 to 84 years, and thus generated approximately 14,505 extra life-years (minimum 7270, maximum 22,475). In general, all the cardiac interventions investigated were highly cost-effective in the Irish setting. Aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, spironolactone, and warfarin for specific conditions were the most cost-effective interventions (< euro 3000\\/LYG), followed by the statins for secondary prevention (< euro 6500\\/LYG). Revascularization for chronic angina and primary angioplasty for myocardial infarction, although still cost-effective, had the highest ICER (between euro 12,000 and euro 20,000\\/LYG). CONCLUSIONS: Using a comprehensive standardized methodology, cost-effectiveness ratios in this study clearly favored simple medical treatments for myocardial infarction, secondary prevention, angina, and heart failure.

  17. The interaction between individualism and wellbeing in predicting mortality: Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okely, Judith A; Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R

    2018-02-01

    The link between greater wellbeing and longevity is well documented. The aim of the current study was to test whether this association is consistent across individualistic and collectivistic cultures. The sample consisted of 13,596 participants from 11 European countries, each of which was assigned an individualism score according to Hofstede et al.'s (Cultures and organizations: software of the mind, McGraw Hill, New York, 2010) cultural dimension of individualism. We tested whether individualism moderated the cross-sectional association between wellbeing and self-rated health or the longitudinal association between wellbeing and mortality risk. Our analysis revealed a significant interaction between individualism and wellbeing such that the association between wellbeing and self-rated health or risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease was stronger in more individualistic countries. However, the interaction between wellbeing and individualism was not significant in analysis predicting all-cause mortality. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm our finding and to explore the factors responsible for this culturally dependent effect.

  18. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckens, C.F. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Graaf, Y. van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verkooijen, H.M.; Mali, W.P.; Jong, P.A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); Isgum, I.; Mol, C.P. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verhaar, H.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Geriatric Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Vliegenthart, R.; Oudkerk, M. [Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Aalst, C.M. van; Koning, H.J. de [Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-01-15

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant and acute;s semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35 % (95 % confidence interval 30-40 %) among survivors and 51 % (44-58 %) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. (orig.)

  19. Mortality risk during and after opioid substitution treatment: systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sordo, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Bravo, Maria J; Indave, B Iciar; Degenhardt, Louisa; Wiessing, Lucas; Ferri, Marica; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

    2017-04-26

    Objective  To compare the risk for all cause and overdose mortality in people with opioid dependence during and after substitution treatment with methadone or buprenorphine and to characterise trends in risk of mortality after initiation and cessation of treatment. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources  Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and LILACS to September 2016. Study selection  Prospective or retrospective cohort studies in people with opioid dependence that reported deaths from all causes or overdose during follow-up periods in and out of opioid substitution treatment with methadone or buprenorphine. Data extraction and synthesis  Two independent reviewers performed data extraction and assessed study quality. Mortality rates in and out of treatment were jointly combined across methadone or buprenorphine cohorts by using multivariate random effects meta-analysis. Results  There were 19 eligible cohorts, following 122 885 people treated with methadone over 1.3-13.9 years and 15 831 people treated with buprenorphine over 1.1-4.5 years. Pooled all cause mortality rates were 11.3 and 36.1 per 1000 person years in and out of methadone treatment (unadjusted out-to-in rate ratio 3.20, 95% confidence interval 2.65 to 3.86) and reduced to 4.3 and 9.5 in and out of buprenorphine treatment (2.20, 1.34 to 3.61). In pooled trend analysis, all cause mortality dropped sharply over the first four weeks of methadone treatment and decreased gradually two weeks after leaving treatment. All cause mortality remained stable during induction and remaining time on buprenorphine treatment. Overdose mortality evolved similarly, with pooled overdose mortality rates of 2.6 and 12.7 per 1000 person years in and out of methadone treatment (unadjusted out-to-in rate ratio 4.80, 2.90 to 7.96) and 1.4 and 4.6 in and out of buprenorphine treatment. Conclusions  Retention in methadone and buprenorphine treatment is associated with substantial reductions in the risk for

  20. C-reactive protein and homocysteine predict long-term mortality in young ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naess, Halvor; Nyland, Harald; Idicula, Titto; Waje-Andreassen, Ulrike

    2013-11-01

    We investigated the relationship between C-reactive protein (CRP) and homocysteine on follow-up and subsequent mortality in young ischemic stroke patients in a population-based study. Young ischemic stroke patients were followed-up on average 6 years after the index stroke. CRP and homocysteine levels were measured and risk factors were recorded, including myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking, alcoholism, and cancer. Stroke outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale score. Subsequent survival was obtained by examining the official population registry. Cox regression analyses were performed. In total, 198 patients were included in this study (82 [41%] women and 116 [59%] men). The mean age on follow-up was 47.8 years. In total, 36 (18.2%) patients died during the subsequent mean follow-up of 12.4 years. Cox regression analysis revealed that mortality was associated with CRP (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05; P=.001) and homocysteine levels (HR 1.04; P=.02) in patients without dissection. Kaplan-Meier curves grouped by dichotomized CRP (CRP≤1 v >1 mg/L) showed increasing separation between the survival curves, and likewise for dichotomized homocysteine (≤9 v >9 μg/L). There is an independent association between CRP and homocysteine levels obtained several years after ischemic stroke in young adults and subsequent mortality, even when adjusting for traditional risk factors. This association seems to continue for at least 12 years after the measurements. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Endomyocardial expression of SDF-1 predicts mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuern, Christine S; Walker, Britta; Sauter, Martina; Schaub, Malte; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Mueller, Karin; Rath, Dominik; Vogel, Sebastian; Tegtmeyer, Roland; Seizer, Peter; Geisler, Tobias; Kandolf, Reinhard; Lang, Florian; Klingel, Karin; Gawaz, Meinrad; Borst, Oliver

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification in patients with suspected myocarditis is pivotal for optimizing therapy. Stromal cell-derived factor 1 (SDF-1) is an inflammatory chemokine expressed in the inflamed and failing myocardium. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether endomyocardial expression of SDF-1 identifies high-risk patients with suspected myocarditis. We prospectively enrolled 174 patients with non-ischemic HF who underwent endomyocardial biopsy for suspected myocarditis. Biopsies were analyzed using established histopathological and immunohistological criteria together with SDF-1 staining. SDF-1 was significantly enhanced in patients with inflammatory cardiomyopathy (65.4 % positive biopsies) as compared to patients with non-inflammatory cardiomyopathy (19.1 %, p SDF-1 expression levels correlated significantly with the degree of myocardial fibrosis (correlation coefficient r = 0.196; p = 0.010) since patients with severe myocardial fibrosis displayed high myocardial SDF-1 expression. During a mean follow-up of 27.5 months, 20 patients (11.5 %) died. The 4-year mortality rate was 26.0 % among the 92 SDF-1-positive patients vs. 9.5 % among the 82 SDF-1-negative patients (p = 0.001). On multivariable analysis which considered clinical (NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction), laboratory (brain natriuretic peptide, troponin I) and biopsy staining, SDF-1 was the strongest independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 6.1; 95 % confidence interval 1.4-27.5; p = 0.018). Subgroup analysis revealed SDF-1 as a predictor of mortality in both patients with inflammatory and non-inflammatory cardiomyopathy. Endomyocardial expression of SDF-1 is enhanced in inflammatory cardiomyopathy, positively correlates with myocardial fibrosis and identifies high-risk patients with suspected myocarditis.

  2. Evaluation of circulating proteins and hemodynamics towards predicting mortality in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brandie D Wagner

    Full Text Available Although many predictors have been evaluated, a set of strong independent prognostic mortality indicators has not been established in children with pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and molecular predictors of survival in PAH.This single-center, retrospective cohort study was performed from children with PAH between 2001 and 2008 at Children's Hospital Colorado. Blood samples from 83 patients (median age of 8.3 years-old were obtained. We retrospectively analyzed 46 variables, which included 27 circulating proteins, 7 demographic variables and 12 hemodynamic and echocardiographic variables for establishing the best predictors of mortality. A data mining approach was utilized to evaluate predictor variables and to uncover complex data structures while performing variable selection in high dimensional problems.Thirteen children (16% died during follow-up (median; 3.1 years and survival rates from time of sample collection at 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were 95%, 85% and 79%, respectively. A subset of potentially informative predictors were identified, the top four are listed here in order of importance: Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1, apolipoprotein-AI, RV/LV diastolic dimension ratio and age at diagnosis. In univariate analysis, TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI had significant association with survival time (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.25 [1.03, 1.51] and 0.70 [0.54-0.90], respectively. Patients grouped by TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI values had significantly different survival risks (p<0.01.Important predictors of mortality were identified from a large number of circulating proteins and clinical markers in this cohort. If confirmed in other populations, measurement of a subset of these predictors could aid in management of pediatric PAH by identifying patients at risk for death. These findings also further support a role for the clinical

  3. A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y Krakauer

    Full Text Available Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

  4. Risk factors for pre-treatment mortality among HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine G Sutcliffe

    Full Text Available Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa enter care at a late stage of disease. As preparation of the child and family for antiretroviral therapy (ART can take several clinic visits, some children die prior to ART initiation. This study was undertaken to determine mortality rates and clinical predictors of mortality during the period prior to ART initiation.A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected treatment-naïve children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the HIV clinic at Macha Hospital in rural Southern Province, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age who were treatment-naïve at study enrollment were eligible for analysis. Mortality rates prior to ART initiation were calculated and risk factors for mortality were evaluated.351 children were included in the study, of whom 210 (59.8% were eligible for ART at study enrollment. Among children ineligible for ART at enrollment, 6 children died (mortality rate: 0.33; 95% CI:0.15, 0.74. Among children eligible at enrollment, 21 children died before initiation of ART and their mortality rate (2.73 per 100 person-years; 95% CI:1.78, 4.18 was significantly higher than among children ineligible for ART (incidence rate ratio: 8.20; 95% CI:3.20, 24.83. In both groups, mortality was highest in the first three months of follow-up. Factors associated with mortality included younger age, anemia and lower weight-for-age z-score at study enrollment.These results underscore the need to increase efforts to identify HIV-infected children at an earlier age and stage of disease progression so they can enroll in HIV care and treatment programs prior to becoming eligible for ART and these deaths can be prevented.

  5. Prognostic value of tissue Doppler imaging for predicting ventricular arrhythmias and cardiovascular mortality in ischaemic cardiomyopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Olsen, Flemming Javier; Storm, Katrine

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Only 30% of patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention receive appropriately therapy. We sought to investigate the value of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) to predict ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), and cardiovascular...

  6. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malvezzi, M; Bertuccio, P; Rosso, T; Rota, M; Levi, F; La Vecchia, C; Negri, E

    2015-04-01

    Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email

  7. Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Murray M; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T; Clark, Amy E; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J L; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J Michael

    2015-08-01

    Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites. Randomly selected PICU patients from their first PICU admission. None. Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from preillness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range, 2.6-7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p 0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (vs chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality.

  8. Cardiac autonomic neuropathy predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, Anne Sofie; Tarnow, Lise; Rossing, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) has been associated with a poor prognosis in patients with diabetes. Because CAN is common in patients with diabetic nephropathy, we evaluated the predictive value of CAN in type 1 diabetic patients with and without diabetic nephropathy.......Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) has been associated with a poor prognosis in patients with diabetes. Because CAN is common in patients with diabetic nephropathy, we evaluated the predictive value of CAN in type 1 diabetic patients with and without diabetic nephropathy....

  9. Changes in Albuminuria Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Vascular Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Schmieder, Roland E.; Mann, Johannes F. E.; Schumacher, Helmut; Gao, Peggy; Mancia, Giuseppe; Weber, Michael A.; McQueen, Matthew; Koon, Teo; Yusuf, Salim

    2011-01-01

    The degree of albuminuria predicts cardiovascular and renal outcomes, but it is not known whether changes in albuminuria also predict similar outcomes. In two multicenter, multinational, prospective observational studies, a central laboratory measured albuminuria in 23,480 patients with vascular disease or high-risk diabetes. We quantified the association between a greater than or equal to twofold change in albuminuria in spot urine from baseline to 2 years and the incidence of cardiovascular...

  10. The 6-minute walk is associated with frailty and predicts mortality in older adults with heart failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boxer, RS; Kleppinger, A; Ahmad, A; Annis, K; Hager, WD; Kenny, AM

    2011-01-01

    Introduction HF may contribute to the development of functional decline and frailty in older adults. Methods Sixty HF patients with EF ≤ 40% evaluated in 2004–5 were reevaluated in 2008. Six-minute walk distance (6MW), frailty score, and biomarkers (25-hydroxyvitamin D, C-reactive protein and interleukin-6[IL6]) were measured. Participants were categorized at baseline and follow-up into 3 groups: non-frail/normal endurance (NF/NE), non-frail/low endurance (NF/LE) and frail/low endurance (F/LE). Survival time was assessed according to frailty/endurance status and associated predictors of mortality. Results Forty-three men, 17 women (mean age 78±12) were contacted. At follow up 20 died, 20 participated and 20 did not participate. There were no changes in frailty/endurance status over time (McNemar; p=0.19). Deaths occurred in 18% of NF/NE, 45% of NF/LE and 60% of F/LE. NF/NE had greater survival rates than NF/LE (p=.032) and F/LE (p=.014). The 6MW and frailty score were independently predictive of mortality with hazard ratio.82(.72–.94) and 1.64(1.19–2.26) respectively, as was NYHA and IL6. Backward stepwise Cox- regression revealed that 6MW and frailty each were associated with mortality (p=0.005) and highly correlated. Conclusions Physical function is an important predictor of mortality in older adults with HF. The 6MW may be useful as a measure of frailty. PMID:20887617

  11. Prevalence of frailty and its ability to predict in hospital delirium, falls, and 6-month mortality in hospitalized older patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosten, Etienne; Demuynck, Mathias; Detroyer, Elke; Milisen, Koen

    2014-01-06

    The prevalence and significance of frailty are seldom studied in hospitalized patients. Aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of frailty and to determine the extent that frailty predicts delirium, falls and mortality in hospitalized older patients. In a prospective study of 220 older patients, frailty was determined using the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture (SOF) frailty index. Patients were classified as nonfrail, prefrail, and frail, according to the specific criteria. Covariates included clinical and laboratory parameters. Outcome variables included in hospital delirium and falls, and 6-month mortality. The CHS frailty index was available in all 220 patients, of which 1.5% were classified as being nonfrail, 58.5% as prefrail, and 40% as frail. The SOF frailty index was available in 204 patients, of which 16% were classified as being nonfrail, 51.5% as prefrail, and 32.5% as frail. Frailty, as identified by the CHS and SOF indexes, was a significant risk factor for 6-month mortality. However, after adjustment for multiple risk factors, frailty remained a strong independent risk factor only for the model with the CHS index (OR 4.7, 95% CI 1.7-12.8). Frailty (identified by CHS and SOF indexes) was not found to be a risk factor for delirium or falls. Frailty, as measured by the CHS index, is an independent risk factor for 6-month mortality. The CHS and the SOF indexes have limited value as risk assessment tools for specific geriatric syndromes (e.g., falls and delirium) in hospitalized older patients.

  12. The value of arterial blood gas parameters for prediction of mortality in survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Sudden cardiac death is one of the leading causes of death in Europe, and early prognostication remains challenging. There is a lack of valid parameters for the prediction of survival after cardiac arrest. Aims: This study aims to investigate if arterial blood gas parameters correlate with mortality of patients after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Materials and Methods: All patients who were admitted to our hospital after resuscitation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2013, were included in this retrospective study. The patient's survival 5 days after resuscitation defined the study end-point. For the statistical analysis, the mean, standard deviation, Student's t-test, Chi-square test, and logistic regression analyses were used (level of significance P< 0.05. Results: Arterial blood gas samples were taken from 170 patients. In particular, pH < 7.0 (odds ratio [OR]: 7.20; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.11–16.69; P< 0.001 and lactate ≥ 5.0 mmol/L (OR: 6.79; 95% CI: 2.77–16.66; P< 0.001 showed strong and independent correlations with mortality within the first 5 days after hospital admission. Conclusion: Our study results indicate that several arterial blood gas parameters correlate with mortality of patients after out-of-hospital resuscitation. The most relevant parameters are pH and lactate because they are strongly and independently associated with mortality within the first 5 days after resuscitation. Despite this correlation, none of these parameters by oneself is strong enough to allow an early prognostication. Still, these parameters can contribute as part of a multimodal approach to assessing the patients' prognosis.

  13. Statin treatment prevents increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality associated with clarithromycin in patients with stable coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Gorm B; Hilden, Jørgen; Als-Nielsen, Bodil

    2010-01-01

    In the CLARICOR trial, significantly increased cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality in stable patients with coronary heart disease were observed after a short course of clarithromycin. We report on the impact of statin treatment at entry on the CV and all-cause mortality. The multicenter...... CLARICOR trial randomized patients to oral clarithromycin (500 mg daily; n = 2172) versus matching placebo (daily; n = 2201) for 2 weeks. Patients were followed through public databases. In the 41% patients on statin treatment at entry, no significant effect of clarithromycin was observed on CV (hazard.......0003; statin-clarithromycin interaction P = 0.0029) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05-1.67; P = 0.016; statin-clarithromycin interaction P = 0.41). Multivariate analysis and 6-year follow up confirmed these results. Concomitant statin treatment in stable patients with coronary heart disease...

  14. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    surgery, and body mass index category the following variables predicted mortality (points): male gender (1), age 56-65 years (2), age 66-75 years (4), age 76-85 years (5), or age >85 years (7), being underweight (4), normal weight (3), or overweight (1), undergoing acute surgery (5), undergoing high......BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...

  15. Predicting In-Hospital Mortality of ICU Patients: The PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Ikaro; Moody, George; Scott, Daniel J; Celi, Leo A; Mark, Roger G

    2012-01-01

    Acuity scores, such as APACHE, SAPS, MPM, and SOFA, are widely used to account for population differences in studies aiming to compare how medications, care guidelines, surgery, and other interventions impact mortality in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. By contrast, the focus of the PhysioNet/CinC Challenge 2012 is to develop methods for patient-specific prediction of in-hospital mortality. The data used for the challenge consisted of 5 general descriptors and 36 time series (measurements of vital signs and laboratory results) from the first 48 hours of the first available ICU stay of 12,000 adult patients from the MIMIC II database. The challenge was organized as two events: event 1 measured performance of a binary classifier, and event 2 measured performance of a risk estimator. The score of event 1 was the lower of sensitivity and positive predictive value. The score for event 2 was a range-normalized Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. A baseline algorithm (using SAPS-1) obtained event 1 and 2 scores of 0.3125 and 68.58 respectively. Most participants submitted entries that outperformed the baseline algorithm. The top final scores for events 1 and 2 were 0.5353 and 17.88 respectively.

  16. Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

    2017-05-15

    Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

  17. GRACE risk score: Sex-based validity of in-hospital mortality prediction in Canadian patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Inna Y; Goodman, Shaun G; Brieger, David; Gale, Chris P; Chew, Derek P; Welsh, Robert C; Huynh, Thao; DeYoung, J Paul; Baer, Carolyn; Gyenes, Gabor T; Udell, Jacob A; Fox, Keith A A; Yan, Andrew T

    2017-10-01

    Although there are sex differences in management and outcome of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), sex is not a component of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (RS) for in-hospital mortality prediction. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of GRACE RS in men and women, and whether its predictive accuracy would be augmented through sex-based modification of its components. Canadian men and women enrolled in GRACE and Canadian Registry of Acute Coronary Events were stratified as ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). GRACE RS was calculated as per original model. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using the c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was undertaken to assess potential interactions of sex with GRACE RS components. For the overall cohort (n=14,422), unadjusted in-hospital mortality rate was higher in women than men (4.5% vs. 3.0%, p0.80), discrimination was lower for women compared to men with STEMI [0.80 (0.75-0.84) vs. 0.86 (0.82-0.89), respectively, pwomen (p=0.86), but suboptimal for men (p=0.031). No significant interaction was evident between sex and RS components (all p>0.25). The GRACE RS is a valid predictor of in-hospital mortality for both men and women with ACS. The lack of interaction between sex and RS components suggests that sex-based modification is not required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Preoperative distress predicts persistent pain after breast cancer treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejdahl, Mathias Kvist; Mertz, Birgitte Goldschmidt; Bidstrup, Pernille Envold Hansen

    2015-01-01

    , and evidence links signs of depression and anxiety with development of PPBCT. The purpose of this study was to assess preoperative distress as a predictive factor for development of PPBCT. METHODS: Between October 2008 and October 2009, 426 women diagnosed with primary breast cancer, undergoing surgery......PURPOSE: Persistent pain after breast cancer treatment (PPBCT) affects 25% to 60% of breast cancer survivors and is recognized as a clinical problem, with 10% to 15% reporting moderate to severe pain several years after treatment. Psychological comorbidity is known to influence pain perception...

  19. Predicting the residual aluminum level in water treatment process

    OpenAIRE

    J. Tomperi; M. Pelo; K. Leiviskä

    2013-01-01

    In water treatment processes, aluminum salts are widely used as coagulation chemical. High dose of aluminum has been proved to be at least a minor health risk and some evidence points out that aluminum could increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease. Thus it is important to minimize the amount of residual aluminum in drinking water and water used at food industry. In this study, the data of a water treatment plant (WTP) was analyzed and the residual aluminum in drinking water was predicted usi...

  20. Predicting the residual aluminum level in water treatment process

    OpenAIRE

    J. Tomperi; M. Pelo; K. Leiviskä

    2012-01-01

    In water treatment processes, aluminum salts are widely used as coagulation chemical. High dose of aluminum has been proved to be at least a minor health risk and some evidence points out that aluminum could increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease thus it is important to minimize the amount of residual aluminum in drinking water and water used at food industry. In this study, the data of a water treatment plant (WTP) was analyzed and the residual aluminum in drinking water was predicted usin...

  1. Long term mortality after a single treatment course with X-rays in patients treated for ankylosing spondylitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darby, S.C.; Doll, R.; Gill, S.K.; Smith, P.G.

    1987-01-01

    Mortality to 1 January 1983 was studied in 14,106 ankylosing spondylitis patients after a single course of X-rays (1935-1954). For neoplasms other than leukaemia or colon cancer, mortality was 28% greater than the general population of England and Wales, proportional increase reaching a maximum 71% between 10.0 and 12.4 years post-irradiation. There was 7% mortality increase more than 25.0 years post-irradiation and only for oesophageal cancer was the relative risk significantly raised. Neither the relative risk, nor its post-irradiation temporal pattern, were greatly influenced by the patient's age. There was a threefold increase in leukaemia mortality, the relative risk highest between 2.5 and 4.9 years post-treatment, but not disappearing being nearly twice that of the general population more than 25 years post-treatment. There was evidence that acute myeloid, acute lymphatic and chronic myeloid leukaemia risks were increased, but no evidence of increase in chronic lymphatic leukaemia. The relative risk appeared greatest for acute myeloid leukaemia. Colon cancer mortality increased by 30%. Non-neoplastic conditions showed a 51% mortality increase, likely to be associated with the disease itself, and not confined to diseases associated with spondylitis. (UK)

  2. Low perceived control over health is associated with lower treatment uptake in a high mortality population of Bolivian forager-farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alami, Sarah; Stieglitz, Jonathan; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

    2018-03-01

    Indigenous people worldwide suffer from higher rates of morbidity and mortality than neighboring populations. In addition to having limited access to public health infrastructure, indigenous people may also have priorities and health perceptions that deter them from seeking adequate modern healthcare. Here we propose that living in a harsh and unpredictable environment reduces motivation to pursue deliberate, costly action to improve health outcomes. We assess whether variation in Health Locus of Control (HLC), a psychological construct designed to capture self-efficacy with respect to health, explains variation in treatment uptake behavior among Tsimane Amerindians (N = 690; age range: 40-89 years; 55.8% female; data collection: 2008-2012), a high mortality and morbidity indigenous population in the Bolivian Amazon, Beni Department. Comparisons with two industrialized populations in Japan (Miyagi prefecture; e 0  = 76.6 years) and the United Kingdom (Caerphilly county borough; e 0  = 81.2 years) confirm that Tsimane (e 0  = 54.1 years) have a more externalized HLC. Multilevel level models were used to investigate whether HLC predicts treatment uptake, and mediates the relationship between modernization and treatment uptake. External HLC scores were predictive of treatment outcomes: Powerful others scores were positively associated with probability of receiving modern treatment (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.33), while Chance scores were negatively associated with probability of receiving modern treatment (adjusted OR = 0.76). We found no effects, however, of Internal HLC or educational capital on treatment uptake. Overall, our findings indicate that health-related decision-making is influenced more by a psychological orientation affecting self-efficacy, shaped in part by perceptions of environmental unpredictability and harshness, than by limited knowledge, education or other indicators of modernization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All

  3. Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections: factors relating to mortality with emphasis on resistance pattern and antimicrobial treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Millena R.S. Pinheiro

    Full Text Available A retrospective case-control study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for death among intensive care unit patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection. Out of 131 patients investigated, 67 (51.1% died within 30 days of being diagnosed with this infection. The mean duration of hospital stay before this diagnosis was 28.5 ± 26.5 days. No association was found between bacterial resistance and death in this study (multiresistant p= 0.26; panresistant p= 0.42, but the adequacy of the initial treatment was inversely proportional to the degree of resistance. There was a tendency towards greater mortality among patients who received combination therapy (empirical p= 0.09; definitive p= 0.08, despite the greater frequency of appropriate treatment in these patients and the similar degree of severity in the two groups. This finding may be explained by pharmacodynamic parameters that were not studied or by the extensive use of aminoglycosides in the combination therapy, which play a controversial role in combination therapy due to their potential for renal toxicity. The multivariate analysis in our study demonstrated that age [odds ratio (OR 1.04], septic shock (OR 15.4 and hypoalbuminemia (OR 0.32 were independent risk factors for death.

  4. Hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale score and ICH score: which predicts the 30-day mortality better for intracerebral hematoma?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Wei Wang

    Full Text Available To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality.This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018, 0.715 (P = 0.0008 (by ABC/2 to 0.738 (P = 0.0002 (by CAVA, 0.877 (P<0.0001 (by ABC/2 to 0.882 (P<0.0001 (by CAVA, and 0.912 (P<0.0001, respectively.Our study shows that hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score.

  5. qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS for predicting inhospital mortality and ICU admission in emergency admissions treated as sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulden, Robert; Hoyle, Marie-Claire; Monis, Jessie; Railton, Darran; Riley, Victoria; Martin, Paul; Martina, Reynaldo; Nsutebu, Emmanuel

    2018-02-21

    The third international consensus definition for sepsis recommended use of a new prognostic tool, the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), based on its ability to predict inhospital mortality and prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in patients with suspected infection. While several studies have compared the prognostic accuracy of qSOFA to the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria in suspected sepsis, few have compared qSOFA and SIRS to the widely used National Early Warning Score (NEWS). This was a retrospective cohort study carried out in a UK tertiary centre. The study population comprised emergency admissions in whom sepsis was suspected and treated. The accuracy for predicting inhospital mortality and ICU admission was calculated and compared for qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS. Among 1818 patients, 53 were admitted to ICU (3%) and 265 died in hospital (15%). For predicting inhospital mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for NEWS (0.65, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.68) was similar to qSOFA (0.62, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.66) (test for difference, P=0.18) and superior to SIRS (PSIRS≥2 (80%, 95% CI 74% to 84%) and higher than qSOFA≥2 (37%, 95% CI 31% to 43%). The specificity of NEWS≥5 (43%, 95% CI 41% to 46%) was higher than SIRS≥2 (21%, 95% CI 19% to 23%) and lower than qSOFA≥2 (79%, 95% CI 77% to 81%). The negative predictive value was 88% (86%-90%) for qSOFA, 86% (82%-89%) for SIRS and 91% (88%-93%) for NEWS. Results were similar for the secondary outcome of ICU admission. NEWS has equivalent or superior value for most test characteristics relative to SIRS and qSOFA, calling into question the rationale of adopting qSOFA in institutions where NEWS is already in use. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  6. Low sphingosine-1-phosphate plasma levels are predictive for increased mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susen Becker

    Full Text Available The association of circulating sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P, a bioactive lipid involved in various cellular processes, and related metabolites such as sphinganine-1-phosphate (SA1P and sphingosine (SPH with mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease is investigated in the presented study. S1P as a bioactive lipid mediator, is involved in several cellular processes, however, in end-stage liver disease its role is not understood.The study cohort consisted of 95 patients with end-stage liver disease and available information on one-year outcome. The median MELD (Model for end-stage liver disease score was 12.41 (Range 6.43-39.63. The quantification of sphingolipids in citrated plasma specimen was performed after methanolic protein precipitation followed by hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometric detection.S1P and SA1P displayed significant correlations with the MELD score. Patients with circulating S1P levels below the lowest tertile (110.68 ng/ml showed the poorest one-year survival rate of only 57.1%, whereas one-year survival rate in patients with S1P plasma levels above 165.67 ng/ml was 93.8%. In a multivariate cox regression analysis including platelet counts, concentrations of hemoglobin and MELD score, S1P remained a significant predictor for three-month and one-year mortality.Low plasma S1P concentrations are highly significantly associated with prognosis in end-stage liver disease. This association is independent of the stage of liver disease. Further studies should be performed to investigate S1P, its role in the pathophysiology of liver diseases and its potential for therapeutic interventions.

  7. Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubbon, Richard M; Ruff, Naomi; Groves, David; Eleuteri, Antonio; Denby, Christine; Kearney, Lorraine; Ali, Noman; Walker, Andrew M N; Jamil, Haqeel; Gierula, John; Gale, Chris P; Batin, Phillip D; Nolan, James; Shah, Ajay M; Fox, Keith A A; Sapsford, Robert J; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Mark T

    2016-02-01

    We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R(2)=0.2; pheart rate (R(2)=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  8. COPD in primary care: Towards simple prediction of quality of life, exacerbations and mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siebeling, L.

    2014-01-01

    We found that previous health-related quality of life (HRQL) was the best predictor in our models to predict COPD-specific HRQL in primary care COPD patients. Asking patients explicitly about dyspnoea, fatigue, depression and how they cope with COPD provides additional important information about

  9. Predicting mortality in Hepatitis-C patients using an artificial neural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We have developed an artificial neural network that is capable of predicting whether a patient suffering from the hepatitis-C virus is likely to live or die. With test data, the system achieved 70% accuracy in determining when a patient would live and 60% accurate in determining when a patient would die. It is hoped that with ...

  10. Heart rate variability predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in intensive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    inotrope/vasopressor therapy, and need for renal replacement therapy we conducted logistic regression as detailed above to determine the strength of association between the HRV parameters and these outcomes. We compared HRV variables identified as significantly predictive of the primary outcome with the APACHE II ...

  11. Admission body temperature predicts long-term mortality after acute stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, L P; Jørgensen, H S; Rungby, Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Body temperature is considered crucial in the management of acute str