WorldWideScience

Sample records for trajectory box models

  1. Quantifying atmospheric transport, chemistry, and mixing using a new trajectory-box model and a global atmospheric-chemistry GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Riede

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel method for the quantification of transport, chemistry, and mixing along atmospheric trajectories based on a consistent model hierarchy. The hierarchy consists of the new atmospheric-chemistry trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the three-dimensional (3-D global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric-chemistry (EMAC general circulation model. CAABA/MJT employs the atmospheric box model CAABA in a configuration using the atmospheric-chemistry submodel MECCA (M, the photochemistry submodel JVAL (J, and the new trajectory submodel TRAJECT (T, to simulate chemistry along atmospheric trajectories, which are provided offline. With the same chemistry submodels coupled to the 3-D EMAC model and consistent initial conditions and physical parameters, a unique consistency between the two models is achieved. Since only mixing processes within the 3-D model are excluded from the model consistency, comparisons of results from the two models allow to separate and quantify contributions of transport, chemistry, and mixing along the trajectory pathways. Consistency of transport between the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the 3-D EMAC model is achieved via calculation of kinematic trajectories based on 3-D wind fields from EMAC using the trajectory model LAGRANTO. The combination of the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the trajectory model LAGRANTO can be considered as a Lagrangian chemistry-transport model (CTM moving isolated air parcels. The procedure for obtaining the necessary statistical basis for the quantification method is described as well as the comprehensive diagnostics with respect to chemistry.

    The quantification method presented here allows to investigate the characteristics of transport, chemistry, and mixing in a grid-based 3-D model. The analysis of chemical processes within the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT is easily extendable to include, for example, the impact of different transport pathways or of mixing processes onto

  2. Leaky-box approximation to the fractional diffusion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchaikin, V V; Sibatov, R T; Saenko, V V

    2013-01-01

    Two models based on fractional differential equations for galactic cosmic ray diffusion are applied to the leaky-box approximation. One of them (Lagutin-Uchaikin, 2000) assumes a finite mean free path of cosmic ray particles, another one (Lagutin-Tyumentsev, 2004) uses distribution with infinite mean distance between collision with magnetic clouds, when the trajectories have form close to ballistic. Calculations demonstrate that involving boundary conditions is incompatible with spatial distributions given by the second model.

  3. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    of two papers where the stochastic differential equation based model is used for sewer runoff from a drainage system. A simple model is used to describe a complex rainfall-runoff process in a catchment, but the stochastic part of the system is formulated to include the increasing uncertainty when...... rainwater flows through the system, as well as describe the lower limit of the uncertainty when the flow approaches zero. The first paper demonstrates in detail the grey box model and all related transformations required to obtain a feasible model for the sewer runoff. In the last paper this model is used......The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...

  4. Classical models for Regge trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biedenharn, L.C.; Van Dam, H.; Marmo, G.; Morandi, G.; Mukunda, N.; Samuel, J.; Sudarshan, E.C.G.

    1987-01-01

    Two classical models for particles with internal structure and which describe Regge trajectories are developed. The remarkable geometric and other properties of the two internal spaces are highlighted. It is shown that the conditions of positive time-like four-velocity and energy momentum for the classical system imply strong and physically reasonable conditions on the Regge mass-spin relationship

  5. Physical Modeling Modular Boxes: PHOXES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelineck, Steven; Serafin, Stefania

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a set of musical instruments, which are based on known physical modeling sound synthesis techniques. The instruments are modular, meaning that they can be combined in various ways. This makes it possible to experiment with physical interaction and sonic...

  6. Grey-Box Modelling of Pharmacokinetic /Pharmacodynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornøe, Christoffer Wenzel; Jacobsen, Judith L.; Pedersen, Oluf

    2004-01-01

    Grey-box pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is presented as a promising way of modelling PK/PD systems. The concept behind grey-box modelling is based on combining physiological knowledge along with information from data in the estimation of model parameters. Grey-box modelling...

  7. Technical description of the RIVM trajectory model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Waal, E.S.; Van Pul, W.A.J.

    1995-12-01

    The RIVM trajectory model, described in this report, enables calculation of a backward or forward trajectory. These trajectories are used to `follow` previous released air pollution in a backward mode or to `find` the origin of air pollution in a forward mode. The trajectories are used in the smog forecasting and in the TREND model for the distribution of materials in Europe. Presently 6-hourly ECMWF wind fields at 1000 and 850 hPa, with 3 deg x 3 deg latitude-longitude resolution are used. Wind fields with a different resolution in latitude-longitude can also be used after simple adjustments. An iterative method, described elsewhere, is applied to calculate the trajectories. Within limits, the user is free to choose the time step (1, 2 or 6-hour), transport height, length, starting or arrival date and starting or arrival position of the trajectory. The differences between the trajectories calculated with time steps of 1, 2 and 6 h were small. For the 96-hour trajectories at 1000 and 850 hPa the deviations were generally within 1 deg latitude and longitude, i.e. 100-200 km. The trajectory calculated with the 6-hour time step could be used without a great loss in accuracy compared to the calculations with the 1-hour time step. A typical error in the trajectory path at 1000 and 850 hPa was 500 km, which is about 30% of a typical travel distance. However, close to quickly changing weather systems, such as cyclones, the error can be as large as the travel distance and makes the calculations unreliable. The error in the forecasted trajectory was found to be larger than the above error estimation due to larger uncertainties in the forecasted compared to the analyzed wind fields. A manual on how to run the model is also given. 5 figs., 3 tabs., 5 refs., 6 appendices

  8. UAV Trajectory Modeling Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Min

    2017-01-01

    Massive small unmanned aerial vehicles are envisioned to operate in the near future. While there are lots of research problems need to be addressed before dense operations can happen, trajectory modeling remains as one of the keys to understand and develop policies, regulations, and requirements for safe and efficient unmanned aerial vehicle operations. The fidelity requirement of a small unmanned vehicle trajectory model is high because these vehicles are sensitive to winds due to their small size and low operational altitude. Both vehicle control systems and dynamic models are needed for trajectory modeling, which makes the modeling a great challenge, especially considering the fact that manufactures are not willing to share their control systems. This work proposed to use a neural network approach for modelling small unmanned vehicle's trajectory without knowing its control system and bypassing exhaustive efforts for aerodynamic parameter identification. As a proof of concept, instead of collecting data from flight tests, this work used the trajectory data generated by a mathematical vehicle model for training and testing the neural network. The results showed great promise because the trained neural network can predict 4D trajectories accurately, and prediction errors were less than 2:0 meters in both temporal and spatial dimensions.

  9. Software sensors based on the grey-box modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, J.; Harremoës, P.; Strube, Rune

    1996-01-01

    In recent years the grey-box modelling approach has been applied to wastewater transportation and treatment Grey-box models are characterized by the combination of deterministic and stochastic terms to form a model where all the parameters are statistically identifiable from the on......-box model for the specific dynamics is identified. Similarly, an on-line software sensor for detecting the occurrence of backwater phenomena can be developed by comparing the dynamics of a flow measurement with a nearby level measurement. For treatment plants it is found that grey-box models applied to on......-line measurements. With respect to the development of software sensors, the grey-box models possess two important features. Firstly, the on-line measurements can be filtered according to the grey-box model in order to remove noise deriving from the measuring equipment and controlling devices. Secondly, the grey...

  10. Trajectory phases of a quantum dot model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genway, Sam; Hickey, James M; Garrahan, Juan P; Armour, Andrew D

    2014-01-01

    We present a thermodynamic formalism to study the trajectories of charge transport through a quantum dot coupled to two leads in the resonant-level model. We show that a close analogue of equilibrium phase transitions exists for the statistics of transferred charge; by tuning an appropriate ‘counting field’, crossovers to different trajectory phases are possible. Our description reveals a mapping between the statistics of a given device and current measurements over a range of devices with different dot–lead coupling strengths. Furthermore insight into features of the trajectory phases are found by studying the occupation of the dot conditioned on the transported charge between the leads; this is calculated from first principles using a trajectory biased two-point projective measurement scheme. (paper)

  11. Boxes of Model Building and Visualization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Dušan

    2017-01-01

    Macromolecular crystallography and electron microscopy (single-particle and in situ tomography) are merging into a single approach used by the two coalescing scientific communities. The merger is a consequence of technical developments that enabled determination of atomic structures of macromolecules by electron microscopy. Technological progress in experimental methods of macromolecular structure determination, computer hardware, and software changed and continues to change the nature of model building and visualization of molecular structures. However, the increase in automation and availability of structure validation are reducing interactive manual model building to fiddling with details. On the other hand, interactive modeling tools increasingly rely on search and complex energy calculation procedures, which make manually driven changes in geometry increasingly powerful and at the same time less demanding. Thus, the need for accurate manual positioning of a model is decreasing. The user's push only needs to be sufficient to bring the model within the increasing convergence radius of the computing tools. It seems that we can now better than ever determine an average single structure. The tools work better, requirements for engagement of human brain are lowered, and the frontier of intellectual and scientific challenges has moved on. The quest for resolution of new challenges requires out-of-the-box thinking. A few issues such as model bias and correctness of structure, ongoing developments in parameters defining geometric restraints, limitations of the ideal average single structure, and limitations of Bragg spot data are discussed here, together with the challenges that lie ahead.

  12. UAV Trajectory Modeling Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Min

    2017-01-01

    Large amount of small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (sUAVs) are projected to operate in the near future. Potential sUAV applications include, but not limited to, search and rescue, inspection and surveillance, aerial photography and video, precision agriculture, and parcel delivery. sUAVs are expected to operate in the uncontrolled Class G airspace, which is at or below 500 feet above ground level (AGL), where many static and dynamic constraints exist, such as ground properties and terrains, restricted areas, various winds, manned helicopters, and conflict avoidance among sUAVs. How to enable safe, efficient, and massive sUAV operations at the low altitude airspace remains a great challenge. NASA's Unmanned aircraft system Traffic Management (UTM) research initiative works on establishing infrastructure and developing policies, requirement, and rules to enable safe and efficient sUAVs' operations. To achieve this goal, it is important to gain insights of future UTM traffic operations through simulations, where the accurate trajectory model plays an extremely important role. On the other hand, like what happens in current aviation development, trajectory modeling should also serve as the foundation for any advanced concepts and tools in UTM. Accurate models of sUAV dynamics and control systems are very important considering the requirement of the meter level precision in UTM operations. The vehicle dynamics are relatively easy to derive and model, however, vehicle control systems remain unknown as they are usually kept by manufactures as a part of intellectual properties. That brings challenges to trajectory modeling for sUAVs. How to model the vehicle's trajectories with unknown control system? This work proposes to use a neural network to model a vehicle's trajectory. The neural network is first trained to learn the vehicle's responses at numerous conditions. Once being fully trained, given current vehicle states, winds, and desired future trajectory, the neural

  13. Modelling of Box Type Solar Cooker Performance in a Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thermal performance model of box type solar cooker with loaded water is presented. The model was developed using the method of Funk to estimate cooking power in terms of climatic and design parameters for box type solar cooker in a tropical environment. Coefficients for each term used in the model were determined ...

  14. Improved transition models for cepstral trajectories

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Badenhorst, J

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We improve on a piece-wise linear model of the trajectories of Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, which are commonly used as features in Automatic Speech Recognition. For this purpose, we have created a very clean single-speaker corpus, which...

  15. Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

  16. Lagrangian Trajectory Modeling of Lunar Dust Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, John E.; Metzger, Philip T.; Immer, Christopher D.

    2008-01-01

    Apollo landing videos shot from inside the right LEM window, provide a quantitative measure of the characteristics and dynamics of the ejecta spray of lunar regolith particles beneath the Lander during the final 10 [m] or so of descent. Photogrammetry analysis gives an estimate of the thickness of the dust layer and angle of trajectory. In addition, Apollo landing video analysis divulges valuable information on the regolith ejecta interactions with lunar surface topography. For example, dense dust streaks are seen to originate at the outer rims of craters within a critical radius of the Lander during descent. The primary intent of this work was to develop a mathematical model and software implementation for the trajectory simulation of lunar dust particles acted on by gas jets originating from the nozzle of a lunar Lander, where the particle sizes typically range from 10 micron to 500 micron. The high temperature, supersonic jet of gas that is exhausted from a rocket engine can propel dust, soil, gravel, as well as small rocks to high velocities. The lunar vacuum allows ejected particles to travel great distances unimpeded, and in the case of smaller particles, escape velocities may be reached. The particle size distributions and kinetic energies of ejected particles can lead to damage to the landing spacecraft or to other hardware that has previously been deployed in the vicinity. Thus the primary motivation behind this work is to seek a better understanding for the purpose of modeling and predicting the behavior of regolith dust particle trajectories during powered rocket descent and ascent.

  17. Experimental Grey Box Model Identification of an Active Gas Bearing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theisen, Lukas Roy Svane; Pierart Vásquez, Fabián Gonzalo; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2014-01-01

    in a dynamic model of an active gas bearing and subsequent control loop design. A grey box model is determined based on experiments where piezo actuated valves are used to perturb the journal and hence excite the rotor-bearing system. Such modelling from actuator to output is shown to effciently support...

  18. A Grey Box Model for the Hydraulics in a Creek

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Jacobsen, Judith L.; Madsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The Saint-Venant equation of mass balance is used to derive a stochastics lumped model, describing the dynamics of a cross-sectional area in a river. The unknown parameters of the model are estimated by combining the physical equation with a set of data, a method known as grey box modelling...

  19. Gray-box modelling approach for description of storage tunnel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Carstensen, Jacob

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of a storage tunnel is examined using a model based on on-line measured data and a combination of simple deterministic and black-box stochastic elements. This approach, called gray-box modeling, is a new promising methodology for giving an on-line state description of sewer systems...... of the water in the overflow structures. The capacity of a pump draining the storage tunnel is estimated for two different rain events, revealing that the pump was malfunctioning during the first rain event. The proposed modeling approach can be used in automated online surveillance and control and implemented...

  20. Trajectories and models of individual growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arseniy Karkach

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available It has long been recognized that the patterns of growth play an important role in the evolution of age trajectories of fertility and mortality (Williams, 1957. Life history studies would benefit from a better understanding of strategies and mechanisms of growth, but still no comparative research on individual growth strategies has been conducted. Growth patterns and methods have been shaped by evolution and a great variety of them are observed. Two distinct patterns - determinate and indeterminate growth - are of a special interest for these studies since they present qualitatively different outcomes of evolution. We attempt to draw together studies covering growth in plant and animal species across a wide range of phyla focusing primarily on the noted qualitative features. We also review mathematical descriptions of growth, namely empirical growth curves and growth models, and discuss the directions of future research.

  1. A Box-Cox normal model for response times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Entink, R H; van der Linden, W J; Fox, J-P

    2009-11-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box-Cox transformations for response time modelling are investigated. After an introduction and an outline of a broader framework for analysing responses and response times simultaneously, the performance of a Box-Cox normal model for describing response times is investigated using simulation studies and a real data example. A transformation-invariant implementation of the deviance information criterium (DIC) is developed that allows for comparing model fit between models with different transformation parameters. Showing an enhanced description of the shape of the response time distributions, its application in an educational measurement context is discussed at length.

  2. Model-based segmentation and classification of trajectories (Extended abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alewijnse, S.P.A.; Buchin, K.; Buchin, M.; Sijben, S.; Westenberg, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    We present efficient algorithms for segmenting and classifying a trajectory based on a parameterized movement model like the Brownian bridge movement model. Segmentation is the problem of subdividing a trajectory into parts such that each art is homogeneous in its movement characteristics. We

  3. Quantum dynamics modeled by interacting trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Rodríguez, L.; Uranga-Piña, L.; Martínez-Mesa, A.; Meier, C.

    2018-03-01

    We present quantum dynamical simulations based on the propagation of interacting trajectories where the effect of the quantum potential is mimicked by effective pseudo-particle interactions. The method is applied to several quantum systems, both for bound and scattering problems. For the bound systems, the quantum ground state density and zero point energy are shown to be perfectly obtained by the interacting trajectories. In the case of time-dependent quantum scattering, the Eckart barrier and uphill ramp are considered, with transmission coefficients in very good agreement with standard quantum calculations. Finally, we show that via wave function synthesis along the trajectories, correlation functions and energy spectra can be obtained based on the dynamics of interacting trajectories.

  4. Mobility Modelling through Trajectory Decomposition and Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Faghihi, Farbod

    2017-01-01

    The ubiquity of mobile devices with positioning sensors make it possible to derive user's location at any time. However, constantly sensing the position in order to track the user's movement is not feasible, either due to the unavailability of sensors, or computational and storage burdens. In this thesis, we present and evaluate a novel approach for efficiently tracking user's movement trajectories using decomposition and prediction of trajectories. We facilitate tracking by taking advantage ...

  5. Evaluation process radiological in ternopil region method of box models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.В. Матвєєва

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available  Results of radionuclides Sr-90 flows analyses in the ecosystem of Kotsubinchiky village of Ternopolskaya oblast were analyzed. The block-scheme of ecosystem and its mathematical model using the box models method were made. It allowed us to evaluate the ways of dose’s loadings formation of internal irradiation for miscellaneous population groups – working people, retirees, children, and also to prognose the dynamic of these loadings during the years after the Chernobyl accident.

  6. The importance of trajectory modelling in accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.A.; Williams, J.A.; Hill, M.D.

    1988-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used at present or probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are linear: they take account of the wind speed but not the direction after the first hour. Therefore, the trajectory model is a more realistic description of the cloud's behaviour. However, the extra complexity means that the computing costs increase. This is an important factor for the MARIA code which is intended to be run on computers of varying power. The numbers of early effects predicted by a linear model and a trajectory model in a probabilistic risk assessment were compared to see which model should be preferred. The trajectory model predicted about 25% fewer expected early deaths and 30% more people evacuated than the linear model. However, the trajectory model took about ten times longer to calculate its results. The choice between the two models may depend on the speed of the computer available

  7. BALCO 6/7-DoF trajectory model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wey, P.; Corriveau, D.; Saitz, T.A.; Ruijter, W. de; Strömbäck, P.

    2016-01-01

    BALCO is a six- and seven-degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation program based on the mathematical model defined by the NATO Standardization Recommendation 4618. The primary goal of BALCO is to compute high-fidelity trajectories for both conventional and precision-guided projectiles. The 6-DoF

  8. POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Han; Zak, Michail

    2007-01-01

    Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

  9. Foot trajectory approximation using the pendulum model of walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Juan; Vuckovic, Aleksandra; Galen, Sujay; Conway, Bernard A; Hunt, Kenneth J

    2014-01-01

    Generating a natural foot trajectory is an important objective in robotic systems for rehabilitation of walking. Human walking has pendular properties, so the pendulum model of walking has been used in bipedal robots which produce rhythmic gait patterns. Whether natural foot trajectories can be produced by the pendulum model needs to be addressed as a first step towards applying the pendulum concept in gait orthosis design. This study investigated circle approximation of the foot trajectories, with focus on the geometry of the pendulum model of walking. Three able-bodied subjects walked overground at various speeds, and foot trajectories relative to the hip were analysed. Four circle approximation approaches were developed, and best-fit circle algorithms were derived to fit the trajectories of the ankle, heel and toe. The study confirmed that the ankle and heel trajectories during stance and the toe trajectory in both the stance and the swing phases during walking at various speeds could be well modelled by a rigid pendulum. All the pendulum models were centred around the hip with pendular lengths approximately equal to the segment distances from the hip. This observation provides a new approach for using the pendulum model of walking in gait orthosis design.

  10. A Monte Carlo Investigation of the Box-Cox Model and a Nonlinear Least Squares Alternative.

    OpenAIRE

    Showalter, Mark H

    1994-01-01

    This paper reports a Monte Carlo study of the Box-Cox model and a nonlinear least squares alternative. Key results include the following: the transformation parameter in the Box-Cox model appears to be inconsistently estimated in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity; the constant term in both the Box-Cox and the nonlinear least squares models is poorly estimated in small samples; conditional mean forecasts tend to underestimate their true value in the Box-Cox model when the transfor...

  11. Lagrangian Photochemical Box-Model Calculations of Asian Pacific Rim Outflow During TRACE-P

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, A.; Crawford, J.; Olson, J.; Avery, M.; Sachse, G.; Barrick, J.; Blake, D.; Tan, D.; Sandholm, S.; Kondo, Y.; Singh, H.; Eisele, F.; Zondlo, M.; Flocke, F.; Talbot, R.

    2006-12-01

    NASA's TRACE-P (TRAnsport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific) mission was conducted over the northwestern Pacific February-April, 2001. During two transit flights across the Pacific, extensive pollution was observed from an Asian outflow event that split into two branches over the central Pacific, one subsiding and moving southward over the central Pacific and the other continuing eastward in the upper troposphere. The subsiding branch was observed as a widespread stagnant pollution layer between 2 and 4 km over the central Pacific during transit flights from Kona, HI to Guam. In this region, high levels of O3 (70 ppbv), CO (217 ppbv), and NOx (114 pptv) were well in excess of typical values observed during TRACE-P along the Asian coast. Evidence suggests that the subsiding branch experienced extensive photochemical processing compared to the branch that remained at altitude. To examine the processes controlling the chemical evolution of ozone and its precursors in this outflow event, data collected during the TRACE-P mission have been combined with lagrangian photochemical box model calculations. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in these calculations was associated with predicted water vapor levels along the transport trajectories calculated using the HYSPLIT model. Water vapor levels predicted by HYSPLIT trajectory calculations in the subsiding layer ranged from 3390 to 4880 ppm, while the median level observed in the pollution layer was only 637 ppm. Simulations of ozone production and associated radical chemistry differed dramatically when using water vapor levels based on trajectory calculations versus observed water vapor levels. Levels of PAN and HO2NO2, NOx reservoir species, are also influenced by uncertainties in temperature along the trajectories. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing the humidification and warming of subsiding air masses in 3-D chemical- transport models.

  12. Model identification using stochastic differential equation grey-box models in diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard; Møller, Jonas Bech; Nørgaard, Kirsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-03-01

    The acceptance of virtual preclinical testing of control algorithms is growing and thus also the need for robust and reliable models. Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can rarely be validated with standard statistical tools. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer the possibility of building models that can be validated statistically and that are capable of predicting not only a realistic trajectory, but also the uncertainty of the prediction. In an SDE, the prediction error is split into two noise terms. This separation ensures that the errors are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained due to the separation of the prediction error. SDE-GBs offer a solid framework for using statistical tools for model validation and model development. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

  13. The Box Model and the Acoustic Sounder, a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Otto; Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1979-01-01

    Concentrations of SO2 in a large city during a subsidence situation are predicted as a function of time by means of a simple box model and the predictions are compared to actual SO2 concentration measurements. The agreement between model results and measurements is found to be excellent. The mode...... uses the height of the mixing layer as measured by means of an acoustic sounder. It is demonstrated that this height is a dominant factor in determining the variation of the SO2 concentration...

  14. Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

  15. COMPUTER MODEL AND SIMULATION OF A GLOVE BOX PROCESS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, C.

    2001-01-01

    The development of facilities to deal with the disposition of nuclear materials at an acceptable level of Occupational Radiation Exposure (ORE) is a significant issue facing the nuclear community. One solution is to minimize the worker's exposure though the use of automated systems. However, the adoption of automated systems for these tasks is hampered by the challenging requirements that these systems must meet in order to be cost effective solutions in the hazardous nuclear materials processing environment. Retrofitting current glove box technologies with automation systems represents potential near-term technology that can be applied to reduce worker ORE associated with work in nuclear materials processing facilities. Successful deployment of automation systems for these applications requires the development of testing and deployment strategies to ensure the highest level of safety and effectiveness. Historically, safety tests are conducted with glove box mock-ups around the finished design. This late detection of problems leads to expensive redesigns and costly deployment delays. With wide spread availability of computers and cost effective simulation software it is possible to discover and fix problems early in the design stages. Computer simulators can easily create a complete model of the system allowing a safe medium for testing potential failures and design shortcomings. The majority of design specification is now done on computer and moving that information to a model is relatively straightforward. With a complete model and results from a Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA), redesigns can be worked early. Additional issues such as user accessibility, component replacement, and alignment problems can be tackled early in the virtual environment provided by computer simulation. In this case, a commercial simulation package is used to simulate a lathe process operation at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Lathe process operation is indicative of

  16. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  17. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  18. Pomeron models and exchange degeneracy of the Regge trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontros, J.; Kontros, K.; Lengyel, A.

    2000-01-01

    Two models for the Pomeron, supplemented by exchange-degenerate sub-leading Regge trajectories, are fitted to the forward scattering data for a number of reactions. By considering new Pomeron models, we extend the recent results of the COMPAS group, being consistent with our predecessors

  19. An MCNP model of glove boxes in a plutonium processing facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dooley, D.E.; Kornreich, D.E.

    1998-01-01

    Nuclear material processing usually occurs simultaneously in several glove boxes whose primary purpose is to contain radioactive materials and prevent inhalation or ingestion of radioactive materials by workers. A room in the plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory has been slated for installation of a glove box for storing plutonium metal in various shapes during processing. This storage glove box will be located in a room containing other glove boxes used daily by workers processing plutonium parts. An MCNP model of the room and glove boxes has been constructed to estimate the neutron flux at various locations in the room for two different locations of the storage glove box and to determine the effect of placing polyethylene shielding around the storage glove box. A neutron dose survey of the room with sources dispersed as during normal production operations was used as a benchmark to compare the neutron dose equivalent rates calculated by the MCNP model

  20. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

  1. Modelling the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using a Grey-box approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    identification of an overall model structure followed by data-based modelling, whereby the details of the model are identified. This approach is sometimes called grey-box modelling, but the specific approach used here does not require states to be specified. Overall, the paper demonstrates the power of the grey......-box approach. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  2. Accuracy Analysis of a Box-wing Theoretical SRP Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoya; Hu, Xiaogong; Zhao, Qunhe; Guo, Rui

    2016-07-01

    For Beidou satellite navigation system (BDS) a high accuracy SRP model is necessary for high precise applications especially with Global BDS establishment in future. The BDS accuracy for broadcast ephemeris need be improved. So, a box-wing theoretical SRP model with fine structure and adding conical shadow factor of earth and moon were established. We verified this SRP model by the GPS Block IIF satellites. The calculation was done with the data of PRN 1, 24, 25, 27 satellites. The results show that the physical SRP model for POD and forecast for GPS IIF satellite has higher accuracy with respect to Bern empirical model. The 3D-RMS of orbit is about 20 centimeters. The POD accuracy for both models is similar but the prediction accuracy with the physical SRP model is more than doubled. We tested 1-day 3-day and 7-day orbit prediction. The longer is the prediction arc length, the more significant is the improvement. The orbit prediction accuracy with the physical SRP model for 1-day, 3-day and 7-day arc length are 0.4m, 2.0m, 10.0m respectively. But they are 0.9m, 5.5m and 30m with Bern empirical model respectively. We apply this means to the BDS and give out a SRP model for Beidou satellites. Then we test and verify the model with Beidou data of one month only for test. Initial results show the model is good but needs more data for verification and improvement. The orbit residual RMS is similar to that with our empirical force model which only estimate the force for along track, across track direction and y-bias. But the orbit overlap and SLR observation evaluation show some improvement. The remaining empirical force is reduced significantly for present Beidou constellation.

  3. Wind field and trajectory models for tornado-propelled objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    1978-01-01

    This report contains the results of the second phase of a research program which has as its objective the development of a mathematical model to predict the trajectory of tornado-borne objects postulated to be in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. An improved tornado wind field model satisfies the no-slip ground boundary condition of fluid mechanics and includes the functional dependence of eddy viscosity with altitude. Sub-scale wind tunnel data are obtained for all of the missiles currently specified for nuclear plant design. Confirmatory full-scale data are obtained for a 12-inch pipe and automobile. The original six-degree-of-freedom trajectory model is modified to include the improved wind field and increased capability as to body shapes and inertial characteristics that can be handled. The improved trajectory model is used to calculate maximum credible speeds, which for all of the heavy missiles are considerably less than those currently specified for design. Equivalent coefficients for use in three-degree-of-freedom models are developed and the sensitivity of range and speed to various trajectory parameters for the 12-inch diameter pipe is examined

  4. Puff-trajectory modelling for long-duration releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Underwood, B.Y.

    1988-01-01

    This investigation considers some aspects of the interpretation and application of the puff-trajectory technique which is increasingly being considered for use in accident consequence assessment. It firsthigh lights the problems of applying the straight-line Gaussian model to releases of many hours duration and the drawbacks of using the ad hoc technique of multiple straight-line plumes, thereby pointing to the advantages of allowing curved trajectories. A number of fundamental questions are asked about the conventional puff-trajectory approach such as: what is the justification for using ensemble-average spread parameters (σ values) in constructing particular realizations of the concentration field and to what sampling time should these σ values correspond. These questions are answered in the present work by returning to basics: an interpretation of the puff-trajectory method is developed which establishes a correspondence between the omission of wind-field fluctuations with period below a given value in the generation of trajectories and the achievable spatial resolution of the estimates of time-integrated concentration. In application to accident consequence assessment, this focusses attention on what spatial resolution is necessary for particular consequence types or is implicit in the computational discretization employed

  5. A Model of Organizational Trajectories to Innovation Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvair Silveira Torres Jr.

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The multiple-case study research in three industrial companies - located in Brazil- about organizational changing, comparing cases of lean production system implementation, revealed a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of organizational innovation. The model tries to account for both continuous changes and discontinuities in organizational innovation. Continuous changes are related to secondary innovation, which doesn’t break an organizational paradigm, while discontinuities are associated with a new trajectory, since a primary innovation adopted by the whole organization. Then, the innovative lean process associated with secondary innovation was inadequate to change the organizational trajectory and it explains the cyclical decisions. On the other hand, the lean production system related to primary innovation, assumes the role as a new trajectory, influencing changes in total organization. The greatest difference found in the companies for innovative diffusion process, was the aspect of spread the organizational principles or a simple set of management’s tools.

  6. Crack trajectory near a weld: Modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rashid, M.M.; Tvergaard, Viggo

    2008-01-01

    A 2D computational model of ductile fracture, in which arbitrary crack extension through the mesh is accommodated without mesh bias, is used to study ductile fracture near the weld line in welded aluminum plates. Comparisons of the calculated toughness behavior and crack trajectory are made...

  7. An aircraft noise pollution model for trajectory optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkana, A.; Cook, G.

    1976-01-01

    A mathematical model describing the generation of aircraft noise is developed with the ultimate purpose of reducing noise (noise-optimizing landing trajectories) in terminal areas. While the model is for a specific aircraft (Boeing 737), the methodology would be applicable to a wide variety of aircraft. The model is used to obtain a footprint on the ground inside of which the noise level is at or above 70 dB.

  8. Augmented twin-nonlinear two-box behavioral models for multicarrier LTE power amplifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammi, Oualid

    2014-01-01

    A novel class of behavioral models is proposed for LTE-driven Doherty power amplifiers with strong memory effects. The proposed models, labeled augmented twin-nonlinear two-box models, are built by cascading a highly nonlinear memoryless function with a mildly nonlinear memory polynomial with cross terms. Experimental validation on gallium nitride based Doherty power amplifiers illustrates the accuracy enhancement and complexity reduction achieved by the proposed models. When strong memory effects are observed, the augmented twin-nonlinear two-box models can improve the normalized mean square error by up to 3 dB for the same number of coefficients when compared to state-of-the-art twin-nonlinear two-box models. Furthermore, the augmented twin-nonlinear two-box models lead to the same performance as previously reported twin-nonlinear two-box models while requiring up to 80% less coefficients.

  9. Models Supporting Trajectory Planning in Autonomous Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Erik

    2018-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles have the potential to drastically improve the safety, efficiency and cost of transportation. Instead of a driver, an autonomous vehicle is controlled by an algorithm, offering improved consistency and the potential to eliminate human error from driving: by far the most common cause of accidents. Data collected from different types of sensors, along with prior information such as maps, are used to build models of the surrounding traffic scene, encoding relevant aspects of t...

  10. ARTISTIC VISUALIZATION OF TRAJECTORY DATA USING CLOUD MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Rapid advance of location acquisition technologies boosts the generation of trajectory data, which track the traces of moving objects. A trajectory is typically represented by a sequence of timestamped geographical locations. Data visualization is an efficient means to represent distributions and structures of datasets and reveal hidden patterns in the data. In this paper, we explore a cloud model-based method for the generation of stylized renderings of trajectory data. The artistic visualizations of the proposed method do not have the goal to allow for data mining tasks or others but instead show the aesthetic effect of the traces of moving objects in a distorted manner. The techniques used to create the images of traces of moving objects include the uncertain line using extended cloud model, stroke-based rendering of geolocation in varying styles, and stylistic shading with aesthetic effects for print or electronic displays, as well as various parameters to be further personalized. The influence of different parameters on the aesthetic qualities of various painted images is investigated, including step size, types of strokes, colour modes, and quantitative comparisons using four aesthetic measures are also involved into the experiment. The experimental results suggest that the proposed method is with advantages of uncertainty, simplicity and effectiveness, and it would inspire professional graphic designers and amateur users who may be interested in playful and creative exploration of artistic visualization of trajectory data.

  11. Artistic Visualization of Trajectory Data Using Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, T.; Zhou, Y.; Zhang, L.

    2017-09-01

    Rapid advance of location acquisition technologies boosts the generation of trajectory data, which track the traces of moving objects. A trajectory is typically represented by a sequence of timestamped geographical locations. Data visualization is an efficient means to represent distributions and structures of datasets and reveal hidden patterns in the data. In this paper, we explore a cloud model-based method for the generation of stylized renderings of trajectory data. The artistic visualizations of the proposed method do not have the goal to allow for data mining tasks or others but instead show the aesthetic effect of the traces of moving objects in a distorted manner. The techniques used to create the images of traces of moving objects include the uncertain line using extended cloud model, stroke-based rendering of geolocation in varying styles, and stylistic shading with aesthetic effects for print or electronic displays, as well as various parameters to be further personalized. The influence of different parameters on the aesthetic qualities of various painted images is investigated, including step size, types of strokes, colour modes, and quantitative comparisons using four aesthetic measures are also involved into the experiment. The experimental results suggest that the proposed method is with advantages of uncertainty, simplicity and effectiveness, and it would inspire professional graphic designers and amateur users who may be interested in playful and creative exploration of artistic visualization of trajectory data.

  12. VBSM: VCC-Based Black Box Service Model with Enhanced Data Integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won Min Kang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, intelligent transport systems have been applied to vehicle cloud environments. Such technology is especially useful for the systematic management of road traffic. Moreover, automobiles are increasingly equipped with a black box for accident prevention and preservation of evidence. Vehicle black boxes have become mandatory because black box images and voice data have served as forensic evidence in courts. However, the data from black boxes can be forged or modified by man-in-the-middle (MITM attacks and message hijacking. In this paper, we propose a vehicle cloud computing-based black box service model that can provide integrity for black box data through digital signatures in vehicle cloud computing (VCC environments. Our proposed model protects against MITM attacks and message hijacking using only a hash value and digital signature. Moreover, a mirroring technique (RAID 1 provides backup and recovery to protect the data from a traffic accident.

  13. An hydrodynamic model for the calculation of oil spills trajectories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paladino, Emilio Ernesto; Maliska, Clovis Raimundo [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica. Lab. de Dinamica dos Fluidos Computacionais]. E-mails: emilio@sinmec.ufsc.br; maliska@sinmec.ufsc.br

    2000-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model and its numerical treatment to forecast oil spills trajectories in the sea. The knowledge of the trajectory followed by an oil slick spilled on the sea is of fundamental importance in the estimation of potential risks for pipeline and tankers route selection, and in combating the pollution using floating barriers, detergents, etc. In order to estimate these slicks trajectories a new model, based on the mass and momentum conservation equations is presented. The model considers the spreading in the regimes when the inertial and viscous forces counterbalance gravity and takes into account the effects of winds and water currents. The inertial forces are considered for the spreading and the displacement of the oil slick, i.e., is considered its effects on the movement of the mass center of the slick. The mass loss caused by oil evaporation is also taken into account. The numerical model is developed in generalized coordinates, making the model easily applicable to complex coastal geographies. (author)

  14. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  15. A Lagrangian model of air-mass photochemistry and mixing using a trajectory ensemble: the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport (CiTTyCAT version 4.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. M. Pugh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A Lagrangian model of photochemistry and mixing is described (CiTTyCAT, stemming from the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport, which is suitable for transport and chemistry studies throughout the troposphere. Over the last five years, the model has been developed in parallel at several different institutions and here those developments have been incorporated into one "community" model and documented for the first time. The key photochemical developments include a new scheme for biogenic volatile organic compounds and updated emissions schemes. The key physical development is to evolve composition following an ensemble of trajectories within neighbouring air-masses, including a simple scheme for mixing between them via an evolving "background profile", both within the boundary layer and free troposphere. The model runs along trajectories pre-calculated using winds and temperature from meteorological analyses. In addition, boundary layer height and precipitation rates, output from the analysis model, are interpolated to trajectory points and used as inputs to the mixing and wet deposition schemes. The model is most suitable in regimes when the effects of small-scale turbulent mixing are slow relative to advection by the resolved winds so that coherent air-masses form with distinct composition and strong gradients between them. Such air-masses can persist for many days while stretching, folding and thinning. Lagrangian models offer a useful framework for picking apart the processes of air-mass evolution over inter-continental distances, without being hindered by the numerical diffusion inherent to global Eulerian models. The model, including different box and trajectory modes, is described and some output for each of the modes is presented for evaluation. The model is available for download from a Subversion-controlled repository by contacting the corresponding authors.

  16. Developmental trajectories of adolescent popularity: a growth curve modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cillessen, Antonius H N; Borch, Casey

    2006-12-01

    Growth curve modelling was used to examine developmental trajectories of sociometric and perceived popularity across eight years in adolescence, and the effects of gender, overt aggression, and relational aggression on these trajectories. Participants were 303 initially popular students (167 girls, 136 boys) for whom sociometric data were available in Grades 5-12. The popularity and aggression constructs were stable but non-overlapping developmental dimensions. Growth curve models were run with SAS MIXED in the framework of the multilevel model for change [Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press]. Sociometric popularity showed a linear change trajectory; perceived popularity showed nonlinear change. Overt aggression predicted low sociometric popularity but an increase in perceived popularity in the second half of the study. Relational aggression predicted a decrease in sociometric popularity, especially for girls, and continued high-perceived popularity for both genders. The effect of relational aggression on perceived popularity was the strongest around the transition from middle to high school. The importance of growth curve models for understanding adolescent social development was discussed, as well as specific issues and challenges of growth curve analyses with sociometric data.

  17. An artificial neural network model for periodic trajectory generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, S.; Gander, R. E.; Wood, H. C.

    A neural network model based on biological systems was developed for potential robotic application. The model consists of three interconnected layers of artificial neurons or units: an input layer subdivided into state and plan units, an output layer, and a hidden layer between the two outer layers which serves to implement nonlinear mappings between the input and output activation vectors. Weighted connections are created between the three layers, and learning is effected by modifying these weights. Feedback connections between the output and the input state serve to make the network operate as a finite state machine. The activation vector of the plan units of the input layer emulates the supraspinal commands in biological central pattern generators in that different plan activation vectors correspond to different sequences or trajectories being recalled, even with different frequencies. Three trajectories were chosen for implementation, and learning was accomplished in 10,000 trials. The fault tolerant behavior, adaptiveness, and phase maintenance of the implemented network are discussed.

  18. Augmenting Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling with Graph Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dees, Patrick D.; Zwack, Matthew R.; Edwards, Stephen; Steffens, Michael

    2016-01-01

    into Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design, knowledge of the effects originating from changes to the vehicle must be calculated. In order to do this, a model capable of quantitatively describing any vehicle within the entire design space under consideration must be constructed. This model must be based upon analysis of acceptable fidelity, which in this work comes from POST. Design space interrogation can be achieved with surrogate modeling, a parametric, polynomial equation representing a tool. A surrogate model must be informed by data from the tool with enough points to represent the solution space for the chosen number of variables with an acceptable level of error. Therefore, Design Of Experiments (DOE) is used to select points within the design space to maximize information gained on the design space while minimizing number of data points required. To represent a design space with a non-trivial number of variable parameters the number of points required still represent an amount of work which would take an inordinate amount of time via the current paradigm of manual analysis, and so an automated method was developed. The best practices of expert trajectory analysts working within NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) were implemented within a tool called multiPOST. These practices include how to use the output data from a previous run of POST to inform the next, determining whether a trajectory solution is feasible from a real-world perspective, and how to handle program execution errors. The tool was then augmented with multiprocessing capability to enable analysis on multiple trajectories simultaneously, allowing throughput to scale with available computational resources. In this update to the previous work the authors discuss issues with the method and solutions.

  19. A Three-Box Model of Thermohaline Circulation under the Energy Constraint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Yang; Guan Yu-Ping; Liang Chu-Jin; Chen Da-Ke

    2011-01-01

    The driving mechanism of thermohaline circulation is still a controversial topic in physical oceanography. Classic theory is based on Stommel's two-box model under buoyancy constraint. Recently, Guan and Huang proposed a new viewpoint in the framework of energy constraint with a two-box model. We extend it to a three-box model, including the effect of wind-driven circulation. Using this simple model, we further study how ocean mixing impacts on thermohaline circulation under the energy constraint. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  20. A model for helicopter guidance on spiral trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendenhall, S.; Slater, G. L.

    1980-01-01

    A point mass model is developed for helicopter guidance on spiral trajectories. A fully coupled set of state equations is developed and perturbation equations suitable for 3-D and 4-D guidance are derived and shown to be amenable to conventional state variable feedback methods. Control variables are chosen to be the magnitude and orientation of the net rotor thrust. Using these variables reference controls for nonlevel accelerating trajectories are easily determined. The effects of constant wind are shown to require significant feedforward correction to some of the reference controls and to the time. Although not easily measured themselves, the controls variables chosen are shown to be easily related to the physical variables available in the cockpit.

  1. New proposal of moderator temperature coefficient estimation method using gray-box model in NPP, (1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Michitsugu; Kagami, Yuichi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Enomoto, Mitsuhiro; Tamaoki, Tetsuo; Kawamura, Shinichiro

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to establish a new void reactivity coefficient (VRC) estimation method based on gray box modeling concept. The gray box model consists of a point kinetics model as the first principle model and a fitting model of moderator temperature kinetics. Applying Kalman filter and maximum likehood estimation algorithms to the gray box model, MTC can be estimated. The verification test is done by Monte Carlo simulation, and, it is shown that the present method gives the best estimation results comparing with the conventional methods from the viewpoints of non-biased and smallest scattering estimation performance. Furthermore, the method is verified via real plant data analysis. The reason of good performance of the present method is explained by proper definition of likelihood function based on explicit expression of observation and system noise in the gray box model. (author)

  2. Modelling Behaviour Patterns of Pedestrians for Mobile Robot Trajectory Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Tamura

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Robots are expected to be operated in environments where they coexist with humans, such as shopping malls and offices. Both the safety and efficiency of a robot are necessary in such environments. To achieve this, pedestrian behaviour should be accurately predicted. However, the behaviour is uncertain and cannot be easily predicted. This paper proposes a probabilistic method of determining pedestrian trajectory based on an estimation of pedestrian behaviour patterns. The proposed method focuses on the specific behaviour of pedestrians around the robot. The proposed model classifies the behaviours of pedestrians into definite patterns. The behaviour patterns, distribution of the positions of the pedestrians, and the direction of each behaviour pattern are determined by learning through observation. The behaviour pattern of a pedestrian can be estimated correctly by a likelihood calculation. A robot decides to move with an emphasis on either safety or efficiency depending on the result of the pattern estimation. If the pedestrian trajectory follows a known behaviour pattern, the robot would move with an emphasis on efficiency because the pedestrian trajectory can be predicted. Otherwise, the robot would move with an emphasis on safety because the behaviour of the pedestrian cannot be predicted. Experimental results show that robots can move efficiently and safely when passing by a pedestrian by applying the proposed method.

  3. Comparison of Geometrical Layouts for a Multi-Box Aerosol Model from a Single-Chamber Dispersion Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander C. Ø. Jensen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Models are increasingly used to estimate and pre-emptively calculate the occupational exposure of airborne released particulate matter. Typical two-box models assume instant and fully mixed air volumes, which can potentially cause issues in cases with fast processes, slow air mixing, and/or large volumes. In this study, we present an aerosol dispersion model and validate it by comparing the modelled concentrations with concentrations measured during chamber experiments. We investigated whether a better estimation of concentrations was possible by using different geometrical layouts rather than a typical two-box layout. A one-box, two-box, and two three-box layouts were used. The one box model was found to underestimate the concentrations close to the source, while overestimating the concentrations in the far field. The two-box model layout performed well based on comparisons from the chamber study in systems with a steady source concentration for both slow and fast mixing. The three-box layout was found to better estimate the concentrations and the timing of the peaks for fluctuating concentrations than the one-box or two-box layouts under relatively slow mixing conditions. This finding suggests that industry-relevant scaled volumes should be tested in practice to gain more knowledge about when to use the two-box or the three-box layout schemes for multi-box models.

  4. Hybrid Decision Making: When Interpretable Models Collaborate With Black-Box Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Tong

    2018-01-01

    Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a nove...

  5. Opening Pandora's Box: The impact of open system modeling on interpretations of anoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotinski, Roberta M.; Kump, Lee R.; Najjar, Raymond G.

    2000-06-01

    The geologic record preserves evidence that vast regions of ancient oceans were once anoxic, with oxygen levels too low to sustain animal life. Because anoxic conditions have been postulated to foster deposition of petroleum source rocks and have been implicated as a kill mechanism in extinction events, the genesis of such anoxia has been an area of intense study. Most previous models of ocean oxygen cycling proposed, however, have either been qualitative or used closed-system approaches. We reexamine the question of anoxia in open-system box models in order to test the applicability of closed-system results over long timescales and find that open and closed-system modeling results may differ significantly on both short and long timescales. We also compare a scenario with basinwide diffuse upwelling (a three-box model) to a model with upwelling concentrated in the Southern Ocean (a four-box model). While a three-box modeling approach shows that only changes in high-latitude convective mixing rate and character of deepwater sources are likely to cause anoxia, four-box model experiments indicate that slowing of thermohaline circulation, a reduction in wind-driven upwelling, and changes in high-latitude export production may also cause dysoxia or anoxia in part of the deep ocean on long timescales. These results suggest that box models must capture the open-system and vertically stratified nature of the ocean to allow meaningful interpretations of long-lived episodes of anoxia.

  6. Numerical models and experiment of air flow in a simulation box for optical wireless communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latal Jan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the authors focused on real measurements of mechanical turbulence generated by ventilators in the simulation box for Optical Wireless Communications. The mechanical turbulences disturb the optical beam that propagates along the central axis of the simulation box. The aim of authors is to show the effect of mechanical turbulence on optical beams at different heights in the simulation box. In the Ansys Fluent, we created numerical models which were then compared with real measurements. Authors compared the real and numerical models according to statistical methods.

  7. Comparison of Trajectories Generated by the NOAA Oil Spill Model to Trajectories Produced Using HF Radar-Derived Curents in Monterey Bay

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Margaret

    1997-01-01

    .... Trajectories produced by the NOAA/HAZMAT On-Scene Spill Model, using different combinations of surface currents and winds, were compared to trajectories generated using HF radar-derived surface currents...

  8. A multi-layer box model of carbon dynamics in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuc, T.

    2005-01-01

    A multi-layer box model (MLB) for quantification of carbon fluxes between soil and atmosphere has been developed. In the model, soil carbon reservoir is represented by two boxes: fast decomposition box (FDB) and slow decomposition box (SDB), characterised by substantially different turnover time (TT) of carbon compounds. Each box has an internal structure (sub-compartments) accounting for carbon deposited in consecutive time intervals. The rate of decomposition of carbon compounds in each sub-compartment is proportional to the carbon content. With the aid of the MLB model and the 14 C signature of carbon dioxide, the fluxes entering and leaving the boxes, turnover time of carbon in each box, and the ratio of mass of carbon in the slow and fast box (M s /M f ) were calculated. The MBL model yields the turnover time of carbon in the FDB (TT f ) ca. 14 for typical investigated soils of temperate climate ecosystems. The calculated contribution of the CO 2 flux originating from the slow box (F s ) to the total CO 2 flux into the atmosphere ranges from 12% to 22%. These values are in agreement with experimental observations at different locations. Assuming that the input flux of carbon (F i n) to the soil system is doubled within the period of 100 years, the soil buffering capacity for excess carbon predicted by the MLB model for typical soil parameters may vary in the range between 26% and 52%. The highest values are obtained for soils characterised by long TTf, and well developed old carbon pool. (author)

  9. Mesostructure, contemporary training model of the Cuban boxing school

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Hernández Sierra

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work aims to convey the experiences on the development and application of a meso-structure of 3-4 microcycles that allowed maintaining a long state of the sport form (5-6 months on a scientific-technical and methodological basis in the planning of the Sports training of the national boxing team, who participated in the 4th World Boxing Series (WSB. The investigated sample consisted of 21 boxers, representing 58%, of a population made up of 36 athletes / students belonging to the National School of Boxing. The importance of the research is that it exposes the use of new planning concepts and the current modifications in the training structure, as well as the contribution of science to the adaptation of training loads, which allows to obtain positive results during a long period of time. state of the sport form, factors on which it is necessary to reflect for an effective planning of modern sports training.

  10. Rock shape, restitution coefficients and rockfall trajectory modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, James; Christen, Marc; Bühler, Yves; Bartelt, Perry

    2014-05-01

    Restitution coefficients are used in rockfall trajectory modelling to describe the ratio between incident and rebound velocities during ground impact. They are central to the problem of rockfall hazard analysis as they link rock mass characteristics to terrain properties. Using laboratory experiments as a guide, we first show that restitution coefficients exhibit a wide range of scatter, although the material properties of the rock and ground are constant. This leads us to the conclusion that restitution coefficients are poor descriptors of rock-ground interaction. The primary problem is that "apparent" restitution coefficients are applied at the rock's centre-of-mass and do not account for rock shape. An accurate description of the rock-ground interaction requires the contact forces to be applied at the rock surface with consideration of the momentary rock position and spin. This leads to a variety of rock motions including bouncing, sliding, skipping and rolling. Depending on the impact configuration a wide range of motions is possible. This explains the large scatter of apparent restitution coefficients. We present a rockfall model based on newly developed hard-contact algorithms which includes the effects of rock shape and therefore is able to reproduce the results of different impact configurations. We simulate the laboratory experiments to show that it is possible to reproduce run-out and dispersion of different rock shapes using parameters obtained from independent tests. Although this is a step forward in rockfall trajectory modelling, the problem of parametersing real terrain remains.

  11. Thermohaline loops, Stommel box models, and the Sandström theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Wunsch, Carl

    2005-01-01

    The Stommel two-box, two flow-regime box model is kinematically and dynamically equivalent to the flow in a onedimensional fluid loop, although one having awkward and extreme mixing coefficients. More generally, such a loop, when heated and cooled at the same geopotential, provides a simple example of the working of the Sandström theorem, with flow intensity capable of increasing or decreasing with growing diffusion. Stress dominates real oceanic flows, and its introduction into the purely th...

  12. SimpleBox 4.0: Improving the model while keeping it simple….

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollander, Anne; Schoorl, Marian; van de Meent, Dik

    2016-04-01

    Chemical behavior in the environment is often modeled with multimedia fate models. SimpleBox is one often-used multimedia fate model, firstly developed in 1986. Since then, two updated versions were published. Based on recent scientific developments and experience with SimpleBox 3.0, a new version of SimpleBox was developed and is made public here: SimpleBox 4.0. In this new model, eight major changes were implemented: removal of the local scale and vegetation compartments, addition of lake compartments and deep ocean compartments (including the thermohaline circulation), implementation of intermittent rain instead of drizzle and of depth dependent soil concentrations, adjustment of the partitioning behavior for organic acids and bases as well as of the value for enthalpy of vaporization. In this paper, the effects of the model changes in SimpleBox 4.0 on the predicted steady-state concentrations of chemical substances were explored for different substance groups (neutral organic substances, acids, bases, metals) in a standard emission scenario. In general, the largest differences between the predicted concentrations in the new and the old model are caused by the implementation of layered ocean compartments. Undesirable high model complexity caused by vegetation compartments and a local scale were removed to enlarge the simplicity and user friendliness of the model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Efficient Parameterization for Grey-box Model Identification of Complex Physical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blanke, Mogens; Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    Grey box model identification preserves known physical structures in a model but with limits to the possible excitation, all parameters are rarely identifiable, and different parametrizations give significantly different model quality. Convenient methods to show which parameterizations are the be...... that need be constrained to achieve satisfactory convergence. Identification of nonlinear models for a ship illustrate the concept....

  14. Thermodynamic modeling of small scale biomass gasifiers: Development and assessment of the ''Multi-Box'' approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakalis, Stergios; Patuzzi, Francesco; Baratieri, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Modeling can be a powerful tool for designing and optimizing gasification systems. Modeling applications for small scale/fixed bed biomass gasifiers have been interesting due to their increased commercial practices. Fixed bed gasifiers are characterized by a wide range of operational conditions and are multi-zoned processes. The reactants are distributed in different phases and the products from each zone influence the following process steps and thus the composition of the final products. The present study aims to improve the conventional 'Black-Box' thermodynamic modeling by means of developing multiple intermediate 'boxes' that calculate two phase (solid-vapor) equilibriums in small scale gasifiers. Therefore the model is named ''Multi-Box''. Experimental data from a small scale gasifier have been used for the validation of the model. The returned results are significantly closer with the actual case study measurements in comparison to single-stage thermodynamic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir model of chemical evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caimmi R.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Simple closed-box (CB models of chemical evolution are extended on two respects, namely (i simple closed-(box+reservoir (CBR models allowing gas outflow from the box into the reservoir (Hartwick 1976 or gas inflow into the box from the reservoir (Caimmi 2007 with rate proportional to the star formation rate, and (ii simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir (MCBR models allowing different stages of evolution characterized by different inflow or outflow rates. The theoretical differential oxygen abundance distribution (TDOD predicted by the model maintains close to a continuous broken straight line. An application is made where a fictitious sample is built up from two distinct samples of halo stars and taken as representative of the inner Galactic halo. The related empirical differential oxygen abundance distribution (EDOD is represented, to an acceptable extent, as a continuous broken line for two viable [O/H]-[Fe/H] empirical relations. The slopes and the intercepts of the regression lines are determined, and then used as input parameters to MCBR models. Within the errors (-+σ, regression line slopes correspond to a large inflow during the earlier stage of evolution and to low or moderate outflow during the subsequent stages. A possible inner halo - outer (metal-poor bulge connection is also briefly discussed. Quantitative results cannot be considered for applications to the inner Galactic halo, unless selection effects and disk contamination are removed from halo samples, and discrepancies between different oxygen abundance determination methods are explained.

  16. MESOILT2, a Lagrangian trajectory climatological dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Burk, K.W.

    1991-03-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site. An independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) directs the project, which is conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). The TSP directed PNL to demonstrate that its recommended approach for dose reconstruction is technically feasible and practical. This demonstration was Phase 1 of the project. This report is specifically concerned with the approach that PNL recommends for dealing with the atmospheric pathway. The TSP established a model domain for the atmospheric pathway for Phase 1 that includes 10 counties in Washington and Oregon and covers several thousand square miles. It is unrealistic to assume that atmospheric models which estimate transport and diffusion based on the meteorological conditions near the point of release of material at the time of release are adequate for a region this large. As a result, PNL recommended use of a Lagrangian trajectory, puff dispersion model for the Phase I study. This report describes the MESOILT2 computer code and the atmospheric transport, diffusion, deposition, and depletion models used in Phase I. The contents of the report include a technical description of the models, a user's guide for the codes, and descriptions of the individual code elements. 53 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs

  17. Coupled Particle Transport and Pattern Formation in a Nonlinear Leaky-Box Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; El-Nemr, K. W.; Baird, J. K.

    2009-01-01

    Effects of particle-particle coupling on particle characteristics in nonlinear leaky-box type descriptions of the acceleration and transport of energetic particles in space plasmas are examined in the framework of a simple two-particle model based on the Fokker-Planck equation in momentum space. In this model, the two particles are assumed coupled via a common nonlinear source term. In analogy with a prototypical mathematical system of diffusion-driven instability, this work demonstrates that steady-state patterns with strong dependence on the magnetic turbulence but a rather weak one on the coupled particles attributes can emerge in solutions of a nonlinearly coupled leaky-box model. The insight gained from this simple model may be of wider use and significance to nonlinearly coupled leaky-box type descriptions in general.

  18. An incremental DPMM-based method for trajectory clustering, modeling, and retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Weiming; Li, Xi; Tian, Guodong; Maybank, Stephen; Zhang, Zhongfei

    2013-05-01

    Trajectory analysis is the basis for many applications, such as indexing of motion events in videos, activity recognition, and surveillance. In this paper, the Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) is applied to trajectory clustering, modeling, and retrieval. We propose an incremental version of a DPMM-based clustering algorithm and apply it to cluster trajectories. An appropriate number of trajectory clusters is determined automatically. When trajectories belonging to new clusters arrive, the new clusters can be identified online and added to the model without any retraining using the previous data. A time-sensitive Dirichlet process mixture model (tDPMM) is applied to each trajectory cluster for learning the trajectory pattern which represents the time-series characteristics of the trajectories in the cluster. Then, a parameterized index is constructed for each cluster. A novel likelihood estimation algorithm for the tDPMM is proposed, and a trajectory-based video retrieval model is developed. The tDPMM-based probabilistic matching method and the DPMM-based model growing method are combined to make the retrieval model scalable and adaptable. Experimental comparisons with state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

  19. Optimal Hankel Norm Model Reduction by Truncation of Trajectories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roorda, B.; Weiland, S.

    2000-01-01

    We show how optimal Hankel-norm approximations of dynamical systems allow for a straightforward interpretation in terms of system trajectories. It is shown that for discrete time single-input systems optimal reductions are obtained by cutting 'balanced trajectories', i.e., by disconnecting the past

  20. Evolution of Black-Box Models Based on Volterra Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. Silveira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical review of the many behavioral models actually used to model radio frequency power amplifiers and a new classification of these behavioral models. It also discusses the evolution of these models, from a single polynomial to multirate Volterra models, presenting equations and estimation methods. New trends in RF power amplifier behavioral modeling are suggested.

  1. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  2. Model Identification Using Stochastic Differential Equation Grey-Box Models in Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard

    2013-01-01

    are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. METHODS: An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters...... in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. CONCLUSION: This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained...... are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. RESULTS: We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted...

  3. Prediction of ionizing radiation effects in integrated circuits using black-box models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williamson, P.W.

    1976-10-01

    A method is described which allows general black-box modelling of integrated circuits as distinct from the existing method of deriving the radiation induced response of the model from actual terminal measurements on the device during irradiation. Both digital and linear circuits are discussed. (author)

  4. Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

  5. SECOND ORDER LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATION ON ARCH(1 MODEL WITH BOX-COX TRANSFORMED DEPENDENT VARIABLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herni Utami

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Box-Cox transformation is often used to reduce heterogeneity and to achieve a symmetric distribution of response variable. In this paper, we estimate the parameters of Box-Cox transformed ARCH(1 model using second-order leastsquare method and then we study the consistency and asymptotic normality for second-order least square (SLS estimators. The SLS estimation was introduced byWang (2003, 2004 to estimate the parameters of nonlinear regression models with independent and identically distributed errors

  6. Does box model training improve surgical dexterity and economy of movement during virtual reality laparoscopy? A randomised trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clevin, L.; Grantcharov, T.P.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Laparoscopic box model trainers have been used in training curricula for a long time, however data on their impact on skills acquisition is still limited. Our aim was to validate a low cost box model trainer as a tool for the training of skills relevant to laparoscopic surgery. DESIGN:...... the VR system. Trainees who used the box model trainer showed significant improvement compared to the control group. Box model trainers are valid tools for laparoscopic skills training and should be implemented in the comprehensive training curricula in gynaecology Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  7. High Altitude Venus Operations Concept Trajectory Design, Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, Rafael A.; Ozoroski, Thomas A.; Van Norman, John W.; Arney, Dale C.; Dec, John A.; Jones, Christopher A.; Zumwalt, Carlie H.

    2015-01-01

    A trajectory design and analysis that describes aerocapture, entry, descent, and inflation of manned and unmanned High Altitude Venus Operation Concept (HAVOC) lighter-than-air missions is presented. Mission motivation, concept of operations, and notional entry vehicle designs are presented. The initial trajectory design space is analyzed and discussed before investigating specific trajectories that are deemed representative of a feasible Venus mission. Under the project assumptions, while the high-mass crewed mission will require further research into aerodynamic decelerator technology, it was determined that the unmanned robotic mission is feasible using current technology.

  8. Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Shang, Han Lin

    2015-01-01

    The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

  9. Grey-box modelling of aeration tank settling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechman, Henrik; Nielsen, Marinus K; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-04-01

    A model of the concentrations of suspended solids (SS) in the aeration tanks and in the effluent from these during Aeration tank settling (ATS) operation is established. The model is based on simple SS mass balances, a model of the sludge settling and a simple model of how the SS concentration in the effluent from the aeration tanks depends on the actual concentrations in the tanks and the sludge blanket depth. The model is formulated in continuous time by means of stochastic differential equations with discrete-time observations. The parameters of the model are estimated using a maximum likelihood method from data from an alternating BioDenipho waste water treatment plant (WWTP). The model is an important tool for analyzing ATS operation and for selecting the appropriate control actions during ATS, as the model can be used to predict the SS amounts in the aeration tanks as well as in the effluent from the aeration tanks.

  10. Dilution of aircraft exhaust and entrainment rates for trajectory box models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerz, T [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Kaercher, B [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

    1998-12-31

    In order to match in-situ measured concentrations of NO and NO{sub 2} in the wake, dilution factors or entrainment rates have to be used which take into account that the largest fraction of the exhaust is captured by the wing tip vortices. This fraction defines the primary wake. Baroclinicity and turbulence detrains parts of it later into the secondary wake. Both wake regimes undergo different chemical and microphysical histories. The rates {omega} are determined at which ambient air becomes entrained into the primary and the secondary portion of the exhaust plume. Numerical simulations of the highly resolved wake is used of cruising aircraft under typical atmosphere conditions with and without ambient turbulence. The simulations are oriented on a case where exhaust and dynamical data behind an eastbound travelling B-747 aircraft have been collected in-situ over the North-Atlantic east of Ireland. (author) 7 refs.

  11. Dilution of aircraft exhaust and entrainment rates for trajectory box models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerz, T. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Kaercher, B. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

    1997-12-31

    In order to match in-situ measured concentrations of NO and NO{sub 2} in the wake, dilution factors or entrainment rates have to be used which take into account that the largest fraction of the exhaust is captured by the wing tip vortices. This fraction defines the primary wake. Baroclinicity and turbulence detrains parts of it later into the secondary wake. Both wake regimes undergo different chemical and microphysical histories. The rates {omega} are determined at which ambient air becomes entrained into the primary and the secondary portion of the exhaust plume. Numerical simulations of the highly resolved wake is used of cruising aircraft under typical atmosphere conditions with and without ambient turbulence. The simulations are oriented on a case where exhaust and dynamical data behind an eastbound travelling B-747 aircraft have been collected in-situ over the North-Atlantic east of Ireland. (author) 7 refs.

  12. Thinking Outside the Box: Agile Business Models for CNOs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loss, Leandro; Crave, Servane

    This paper introduces the idea of an agile Business Model for CNOs grounded on a new model of innovation based on the effects of globalization and of Knowledge Economy. The agile Business Model considers the resources that are spread out and available worldwide as well as the need for each customer to receive a unique customer experience. It aims at reinforcing in the context of the Knowledge Economy the different business models approaches developed so far. The paper also identifies the levers and the barriers of Agile Business Models Innovation in CNOs.

  13. A comparison between skeleton and bounding box models for falling direction recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narupiyakul, Lalita; Srisrisawang, Nitikorn

    2017-12-01

    Falling is an injury that can lead to a serious medical condition in every range of the age of people. However, in the case of elderly, the risk of serious injury is much higher. Due to the fact that one way of preventing serious injury is to treat the fallen person as soon as possible, several works attempted to implement different algorithms to recognize the fall. Our work compares the performance of two models based on features extraction: (i) Body joint data (Skeleton Data) which are the joint's positions in 3 axes and (ii) Bounding box (Box-size Data) covering all body joints. Machine learning algorithms that were chosen are Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Voting Classification (VC), and Gradient boosting (GB). The results illustrate that the models trained with Skeleton data are performed far better than those trained with Box-size data (with an average accuracy of 94-81% and 80-75%, respectively). KNN shows the best performance in both Body joint model and Bounding box model. In conclusion, KNN with Body joint model performs the best among the others.

  14. Windfield and trajectory models for tornado-propelled objects. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redmann, G.H.; Radbill, J.R.; Marte, J.E.; Dergarabedian, P.; Fendell, F.E.

    1983-03-01

    This is the final report of a three-phased research project to develop a six-degree-of-freedom mathematical model to predict the trajectories of tornado-propelled objects. The model is based on the meteorological, aerodynamic, and dynamic processes that govern the trajectories of missiles in a tornadic windfield. The aerodynamic coefficients for the postulated missiles were obtained from full-scale wind tunnel tests on a 12-inch pipe and car and from drop tests. Rocket sled tests were run whereby the 12-inch pipe and car were injected into a worst-case tornado windfield in order to verify the trajectory model. To simplify and facilitate the use of the trajectory model for design applications without having to run the computer program, this report gives the trajectory data for NRC-postulated missiles in tables based on given variables of initial conditions of injection and tornado windfield. Complete descriptions of the tornado windfield and trajectory models are presented. The trajectory model computer program is also included for those desiring to perform trajectory or sensitivity analyses beyond those included in the report or for those wishing to examine other missiles and use other variables

  15. Unlocking the black box: teaching mathematical modeling with popular culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofgren, Eric T

    2016-10-01

    Mathematical modeling is an important tool in biological research, allowing for the synthesis of results from many studies into an understanding of a system. Despite this, the need for extensive subject matter knowledge and complex mathematics often leaves modeling as an esoteric subspecialty. A 2-fold approach can be used to make modeling more approachable for students and those interested in obtaining a functional knowledge of modeling. The first is the use of a popular culture disease system-a zombie epidemic-to allow for exploration of the concepts of modeling using a flexible framework. The second is the use of available interactive and non-calculus-based tools to allow students to work with and implement models to cement their understanding. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Comparative uncertainty analysis of copper loads in stormwater systems using GLUE and grey-box modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2007-01-01

    . With the proposed model and input data, the GLUE analysis show that the total sampled copper mass can be predicted within a range of +/- 50% of the median value ( 385 g), whereas the grey-box analysis showed a prediction uncertainty of less than +/- 30%. Future work will clarify the pros and cons of the two methods...

  17. The Particle/Wave-in-a-Box Model in Dutch Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekzema, Dick; van den Berg, Ed; Schooten, Gert; van Dijk, Leo

    2007-01-01

    The combination of mathematical and conceptual difficulties makes teaching quantum physics at secondary schools a precarious undertaking. With many of the conceptual difficulties being unavoidable, simplifying the mathematics becomes top priority. The particle/wave-in-a-box provides a teaching model which includes many aspects of serious …

  18. The Analysis of Organizational Diagnosis on Based Six Box Model in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Rahimi; Siadat, Sayyed Ali; Reza, Hoveida; Arash, Shahin; Ali, Nasrabadi Hasan; Azizollah, Arbabisarjou

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The analysis of organizational diagnosis on based six box model at universities. Research method: Research method was descriptive-survey. Statistical population consisted of 1544 faculty members of universities which through random strafed sampling method 218 persons were chosen as the sample. Research Instrument were organizational…

  19. A Box-Cox normal model for response times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, J.P.; Linden, W.J. van der

    2009-01-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box–Cox transformations for response

  20. Trajectory control sensor engineering model detailed test objective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekome, Kent; Barr, Joseph Martin

    1991-01-01

    The concept employed in an existing Trajectory Control Sensor (TCS) breadboard is being developed into an engineering model to be considered for flight on the Shuttle as a Detailed Test Objective (DTO). The sensor design addresses the needs of Shuttle/SSF docking/berthing by providing relative range and range rate to 1500 meters as well as the perceived needs of AR&C by relative attitude measurement over the last 100 meters. Range measurement is determined using a four-tone ranging technique. The Doppler shift on the highest frequency tone will be used to provide direct measurement of range rate. Bearing rate and attitude rates will be determined through back differencing of bearing and attitude, respectively. The target consists of an isosceles triangle configuration of three optical retroreflectors, roughly one meter and one-half meter in size. After target acquisition, the sensor continually updates the positions of the three retros at a rate of about one hertz. The engineering model is expected to weigh about 25 pounds, consume 25-30 watts, and have an envelope of about 1.25 cubic feet. The following concerns were addressed during the presentation: are there any concerns with differentiating attitude and bearing to get attitude and bearing rates? Since the docking scenario has low data bandwidth, back differencing is a sufficient approximation of a perfect differentiator for this application. Could range data be obtained if there were no retroreflectors on the target vehicle? Possibly, but only at close range. It would be dependent on target characteristics.

  1. Modelling of airflow in a closed simulation box with regard to atmospheric optical link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajek Lukas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Article is dealing with defining of mathematical turbulent air flow numerical model in the laboratory box with help of ANSYS Fluent software application. The paper describes real measurement of parameters of mechanical turbulences created by high-speed ventilator mounted on the simulation box. The real measurement took place in two planes perpendicular to each other, input and output slot. Subsequently the simulation of mechanical air flow was performed by the help of k-ε and k-ω turbulent models. The results of individual simulations were evaluated by statistical model in the same points, planes respectively, in which the real measurement was made. Other simulation was dealing with effect of heaters inside of closed laboratory box with regards to optical beam degradation. During real measurement was performed temperature point measurement by probe placed inside of the box. The probe was recording air temperature every one second during seven minutes long measurement. The results comparison of simulated and measured data was made in the end. The maximal temperature reached approximately 50 °C in both cases. Also the air flow character in dependence on the number of hot-air extraction ventilators was monitored.

  2. Computer modeling of oil spill trajectories with a high accuracy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Martinez, Reinaldo; Flores-Tovar, Henry

    1999-01-01

    This paper proposes a high accuracy numerical method to model oil spill trajectories using a particle-tracking algorithm. The Euler method, used to calculate oil trajectories, can give adequate solutions in most open ocean applications. However, this method may not predict accurate particle trajectories in certain highly non-uniform velocity fields near coastal zones or in river problems. Simple numerical experiments show that the Euler method may also introduce artificial numerical dispersion that could lead to overestimation of spill areas. This article proposes a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method with fourth-order velocity interpolation to calculate oil trajectories that minimise these problems. The algorithm is implemented in the OilTrack model to predict oil trajectories following the 'Nissos Amorgos' oil spill accident that occurred in the Gulf of Venezuela in 1997. Despite lack of adequate field information, model results compare well with observations in the impacted area. (Author)

  3. NOx and O3 above a tropical rainforest: an analysis with a global and box model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Reeves

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A cross-platform field campaign, OP3, was conducted in the state of Sabah in Malaysian Borneo between April and July of 2008. Among the suite of observations recorded, the campaign included measurements of NOx and O3 – crucial outputs of any model chemistry mechanism. We describe the measurements of these species made from both the ground site and aircraft. We then use the output from two resolutions of the chemistry transport model p-TOMCAT to illustrate the ability of a global model chemical mechanism to capture the chemistry at the rainforest site. The basic model performance is good for NOx and poor for ozone. A box model containing the same chemical mechanism is used to explore the results of the global model in more depth and make comparisons between the two. Without some parameterization of the nighttime boundary layer – free troposphere mixing (i.e. the use of a dilution parameter, the box model does not reproduce the observations, pointing to the importance of adequately representing physical processes for comparisons with surface measurements. We conclude with a discussion of box model budget calculations of chemical reaction fluxes, deposition and mixing, and compare these results to output from p-TOMCAT. These show the same chemical mechanism behaves similarly in both models, but that emissions and advection play particularly strong roles in influencing the comparison to surface measurements.

  4. A Grey-Box Model for Spray Drying Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Multi-stage spray drying is an important and widely used unit operation in the production of food powders. In this paper we develop and present a dynamic model of the complete drying process in a multi-stage spray dryer. The dryer is divided into three stages: The spray stage and two fluid bed...

  5. Structured, Physically Inspired (Gray Box) Models Versus Black Box Modeling for Forecasting the Output Power of Photovoltaic Plants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016

  6. Grey-Box Modeling of an Offshore Deoiling Hydrocyclone System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bram, Mads Valentin; Hansen, Leif; Hansen, Dennis S.

    2017-01-01

    The increasing water cut from offshore production wells render optimization of the deoiling process vital for continuous oil and gas production. Hydrocyclones are commonly used as the last stage of the deoiling process and must therefore keep the oil content in the produced water below 30ppm...... a method to estimate how the hydrocyclone pressures are related to its flow rates by means of virtual orifice equations. The experimental results prove that the proposed model is able to estimate the relationship between pressures and flow rates with good accuracy and can be extended in future works...

  7. Optimal experiment design for identification of grey-box models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sadegh, Payman; Melgaard, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik

    1994-01-01

    Optimal experiment design is investigated for stochastic dynamic systems where the prior partial information about the system is given as a probability distribution function in the system parameters. The concept of information is related to entropy reduction in the system through Lindley's measur...... estimation results in a considerable reduction of the experimental length. Besides, it is established that the physical knowledge of the system enables us to design experiments, with the goal of maximizing information about the physical parameters of interest.......Optimal experiment design is investigated for stochastic dynamic systems where the prior partial information about the system is given as a probability distribution function in the system parameters. The concept of information is related to entropy reduction in the system through Lindley's measure...... of average information, and the relationship between the choice of information related criteria and some estimators (MAP and MLE) is established. A continuous time physical model of the heat dynamics of a building is considered and the results show that performing an optimal experiment corresponding to a MAP...

  8. Renormalized trajectory for non-linear sigma model and improved scaling behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guha, A.; Okawa, M.; Zuber, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    We apply the block-spin renormalization group method to the O(N) Heisenberg spin model. Extending a previous work of Hirsch and Shenker, we find the renormalized trajectory for O(infinite) in two dimensions. Four finite N models, we choose a four-parameter action near the large-N renormalized trajectory and demonstrate a remarkable improvement in the approach to continuum limit by performing Monte Carlo simulation of O(3) and O(4) models. (orig.)

  9. Explaining electric conductivity using the particle-in-a-box model: quantum superposition is the key

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivanesan, Umaseh; Tsang, Kin; Izmaylov, Artur F.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the textbooks explaining electric conductivity in the context of quantum mechanics provide either incomplete or semi-classical explanations that are not connected with the elementary concepts of quantum mechanics. We illustrate the conduction phenomena using the simplest model system in quantum dynamics, a particle in a box (PIB). To induce the particle dynamics, a linear potential tilting the bottom of the box is introduced, which is equivalent to imposing a constant electric field for a charged particle. Although the PIB model represents a closed system that cannot have a flow of electrons through the system, we consider the oscillatory dynamics of the particle probability density as the analogue of the electric current. Relating the amplitude and other parameters of the particle oscillatory dynamics with the gap between the ground and excited states of the PIB model allows us to demonstrate one of the most basic dependencies of electric conductivity on the valence-conduction band gap of the material.

  10. Characterizing long-term patterns of weight change in China using latent class trajectory modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Paynter

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, obesity-related diseases have increased tremendously in China, and are now the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Patterns of weight change can be used to predict risk of obesity-related diseases, increase understanding of etiology of disease risk, identify groups at particularly high risk, and shape prevention strategies.Latent class trajectory modeling was used to compute weight change trajectories for adults aged 18 to 66 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS data (n = 12,611. Weight change trajectories were computed separately for males and females by age group at baseline due to differential age-related patterns of weight gain in China with urbanization. Generalized linear mixed effects models examined the association between weight change trajectories and baseline characteristics including urbanicity, BMI category, age, and year of study entry.Trajectory classes were identified for each of six age-sex subgroups corresponding to various degrees of weight loss, maintenance and weight gain. Baseline BMI status was a significant predictor of trajectory membership for all age-sex subgroups. Baseline overweight/obesity increased odds of following 'initial loss with maintenance' trajectories. We found no significant association between baseline urbanization and trajectory membership after controlling for other covariates.Trajectory analysis identified patterns of weight change for age by gender groups. Lack of association between baseline urbanization status and trajectory membership suggests that living in a rural environment at baseline was not protective. Analyses identified age-specific nuances in weight change patterns, pointing to the importance of subgroup analyses in future research.

  11. Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    ARL-TR-8284 ● JAN 2018 US Army Research Laboratory Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model...Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...although some minor changes may be needed. The program processes a GTRAJ output text file that contains results from 2 or more simulations , where each

  12. Particle-in-a-box model of exciton absorption and electroabsorption in conjugated polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Thomas G.

    2000-12-01

    The recently proposed particle-in-a-box model of one-dimensional excitons in conjugated polymers is applied in calculations of optical absorption and electroabsorption spectra. It is demonstrated that for polymers of long conjugation length a superposition of single exciton resonances produces a line shape characterized by a square-root singularity in agreement with experimental spectra near the absorption edge. The effects of finite conjugation length on both absorption and electroabsorption spectra are analyzed.

  13. THE DYNAMIC MODEL FOR CONTROL OF STUDENT’S LEARNING INDIVIDUAL TRAJECTORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Mitsel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In connection with the transition of the educational system to a competence-oriented approach, the problem of learning outcomes assessment and creating an individual learning trajectory of a student has become relevant. Its solution requires the application of modern information technologies. The third generation of Federal state educational standards of higher professional education (FSES HPE defines the requirements for the results of Mastering the basic educational programs (BEP. According to FSES HPE up to 50% of subjects have a variable character, i.e. depend on the choice of a student. It significantly influences on the results of developing various competencies. The problem of forming student’s learning trajectory is analyzed in general and the choice of an individual direction was studied in details. Various methods, models and algorithms of the student’s individual learning trajectory formation were described. The analysis of the model of educational process organization in terms of individual approach makes it possible to develop a decision support system (DSS. DSS is a set of interrelated programs and data used for analysis of situation, development of alternative solutions and selection of the most acceptable alternative. DSSs are often used when building individual learning path, because this task can be considered as a discrete multi-criteria problem, creating a significant burden on the decision maker. A new method of controlling the learning trajectory has been developed. The article discusses problem statement and solution of determining student’s optimal individual educational trajectory as a dynamic model of learning trajectory control, which uses score assessment to construct a sequence of studied subjects. A new model of management learning trajectory is based on dynamic models for tracking the reference trajectory. The task can be converted to an equivalent model of linear programming, for which a reliable solution

  14. Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James B.; Dees, Patrick D.; Diaz, Manuel J.

    2015-01-01

    -modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall

  15. Regularities in hadron systematics, Regge trajectories and a string quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chekanov, S.V.; Levchenko, B.B.

    2006-08-01

    An empirical principle for the construction of a linear relationship between the total angular momentum and squared-mass of baryons is proposed. In order to examine linearity of the trajectories, a rigorous least-squares regression analysis was performed. Unlike the standard Regge-Chew-Frautschi approach, the constructed trajectories do not have non-linear behaviour. A similar regularity may exist for lowest-mass mesons. The linear baryonic trajectories are well described by a semi-classical picture based on a spinning relativistic string with tension. The obtained numerical solution of this model was used to extract the (di)quark masses. (orig.)

  16. Grey-box Modeling for System Identification of Household Refrigerators: a Step Toward Smart Appliances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costanzo, Giuseppe Tommaso; Sossan, Fabrizio; Marinelli, Mattia

    2013-01-01

    units, which operation can be shifted within temperature and operational constraints. Even if the refrigerators are not intended to be used as smart loads, validated models are useful in predicting units consumption. This information can increase the optimality of the management of other flexible units......This paper presents the grey-box modeling of a vapor-compression refrigeration system for residential applications based on maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in stochastic differential equations. Models obtained are useful in the view of controlling refrigerators as flexible consumption...

  17. A new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with ASAR images for oil slick trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Siyu; Huang, Xiaoxia; Li, Hongga

    2017-03-15

    Since Lagrangian model coefficients vary with different conditions, it is necessary to calibrate the model to obtain optimal coefficient combination for special oil spill accident. This paper focuses on proposing a new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with time series of Envisat ASAR images. Oil slicks extracted from time series images form a detected trajectory of special oil slick. Lagrangian model is calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated trajectory and detected trajectory. mean center position distance difference (MCPD) and rotation difference (RD) of Oil slicks' or particles' standard deviational ellipses (SDEs) are calculated as two evaluations. The two parameters are taken to evaluate the performance of Lagrangian transport model with different coefficient combinations. This method is applied to Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The simulation result with calibrated model agrees well with related satellite observations. It is suggested the new method is effective to calibrate Lagrangian model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimating trajectories of energy intake through childhood and adolescence using linear-spline multilevel models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Emma L; Tilling, Kate; Fraser, Abigail; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Emmett, Pauline; Cribb, Victoria; Northstone, Kate; Lawlor, Debbie A; Howe, Laura D

    2013-07-01

    Methods for the assessment of changes in dietary intake across the life course are underdeveloped. We demonstrate the use of linear-spline multilevel models to summarize energy-intake trajectories through childhood and adolescence and their application as exposures, outcomes, or mediators. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children assessed children's dietary intake several times between ages 3 and 13 years, using both food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and 3-day food diaries. We estimated energy-intake trajectories for 12,032 children using linear-spline multilevel models. We then assessed the associations of these trajectories with maternal body mass index (BMI), and later offspring BMI, and also their role in mediating the relation between maternal and offspring BMIs. Models estimated average and individual energy intake at 3 years, and linear changes in energy intake from age 3 to 7 years and from age 7 to 13 years. By including the exposure (in this example, maternal BMI) in the multilevel model, we were able to estimate the average energy-intake trajectories across levels of the exposure. When energy-intake trajectories are the exposure for a later outcome (in this case offspring BMI) or a mediator (between maternal and offspring BMI), results were similar, whether using a two-step process (exporting individual-level intercepts and slopes from multilevel models and using these in linear regression/path analysis), or a single-step process (multivariate multilevel models). Trajectories were similar when FFQs and food diaries were assessed either separately, or when combined into one model. Linear-spline multilevel models provide useful summaries of trajectories of dietary intake that can be used as an exposure, outcome, or mediator.

  19. Application of a Three-Layer Photochemical Box Model in an Athens Street Canyon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proyou, Athena G; Ziomas, Loannis C; Stathopoulos, Antony

    1998-05-01

    The aim of this paper is to show that a photochemical box model could describe the air pollution diurnal profiles within a typical street canyon in the city of Athens. As sophisticated three-dimensional dispersion models are computationally expensive and they cannot serve to simulate pollution levels in the scale of an urban street canyon, a suitably modified three-layer photochemical box model was applied. A street canyon of Athens with heavy traffic was chosen to apply the aforementioned model. The model was used to calculate pollutant concentrations during two days with meteorological conditions favoring pollutant accumulation. Road traffic emissions were calculated based on existing traffic load measurements. Meteorological data, as well as various pollutant concentrations, in order to compare with the model results, were provided by available measurements. The calculated concentrations were found to be in good agreement with measured concentration levels and show that, when traffic load and traffic composition data are available, this model can be used to predict pollution episodes. It is noteworthy that high concentrations persisted, even after additional traffic restriction measures were taken on the second day because of the high pollution levels.

  20. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  1. Finite element cochlea box model - Mechanical and electrical analysis of the cochlea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Milica; Teal, Paul D.; Isailovic, Velibor; Filipović, Nenad

    2015-12-01

    The primary role of the cochlea is to transform external sound stimuli into mechanical vibrations and then to neural impulses which are sent to the brain. A simplified cochlea box model was developed using the finite element method. Firstly, a mechanical model of the cochlea was analyzed. The box model consists of the basilar membrane and two fluid chambers - the scala vestibuli and scala tympani. The third chamber, the scala media, was neglected in the mechanical analysis. The best agreement with currently available analytical and experimental results was obtained when behavior of the fluid in the chambers was described using the wave acoustic equation and behavior of the basilar membrane was modeled with Newtonian dynamics. The obtained results show good frequency mapping. The second approach was to use an active model of the cochlea in which the Organ of Corti was included. The operation of the Organ of Corti involves the generation of current, caused by mechanical vibration. This current in turn causes a force applied to the basilar membrane, creating in this way an active feedback mechanism. A state space representation of the electro-mechanical model from existing literature was implemented and a first comparison with the finite element method is presented.

  2. A class of Box-Cox transformation models for recurrent event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Liuquan; Tong, Xingwei; Zhou, Xian

    2011-04-01

    In this article, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation models for recurrent event data, which includes the proportional means models as special cases. The new model offers great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean functions of counting processes while leaving the stochastic structure completely unspecified. For the inference on the proposed models, we apply a profile pseudo-partial likelihood method to estimate the model parameters via estimating equation approaches and establish large sample properties of the estimators and examine its performance in moderate-sized samples through simulation studies. In addition, some graphical and numerical procedures are presented for model checking. An example of application on a set of multiple-infection data taken from a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is also illustrated.

  3. BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knote, Christoph; Barré, Jérôme; Eckl, Max

    2018-02-01

    The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX) is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX) to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP), this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

  4. BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Knote

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP, this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

  5. The Fractal Characteristics of the Landslides by Box-Counting and P-A Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiwang; Zhou, Fangfang; Cao, Hao

    2018-01-01

    The landslide is a kind of complicated phenomenon with nonlinear inter-reaction. The traditional theories and methods are difficult to study the uncertainty characteristics of dynamic evolution of the landslides. This paper applies box-counting and P-A model to study the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide hazards in the study area from Badong county to Zigui county in TGP reservoir region. The data obtained from the study area shows power-law distributions of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides, and thus reveals some fractal or self-similarity properties. The fractral dimensions DAP of the spatial distribution of landslides by P-A model shows that DAP of the western landslides in the study area are smaller than those of the east, which shows that the geometry of the eastern landslide is more irregular and complicated than the western ones. The results show box-counting model and P-A model can be used to characterize the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides.

  6. Box Model of Freshwater, Salinity and Nutrient in the Delta Mahakam, East Kalimantan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marojahan Simanjuntak

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Box Model of Freshwater, Salinity and Nutrient in the Delta Mahakam, East Kalimantan. Research has been conducted in the southern part of the Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan. Method of measuring temperature, salinity, light transmission and turbidity by using CTD model 603 SBE and current measurement and bathymetry by using ADCP model RDI. Measurement parameters on the nutrient chemistry are based of water samples taken using Nansen bottles from two depths. The purpose of this study to determine the mechanism of freshwater, salinity and nutrient transport from the land of the Mahakam River which interact with seawater by using box models. The results illustrate that the vertical distribution of salinity in the Mahakam Delta has obtained a high stratification, where the freshwater salinity 12.30 psu at the surface of a river flowing toward the sea, and seawater of high salinity 30.07 psu flowing in the direction river under the surface that are separated by a layer of mixture. Freshwater budget of the sea (VSurf obtained for 0,0306 x 109 m3 day-1, and the sea water salinity budget is going into the bottom layer system (VDeep.SOcn-d obtained for 20,727 x 109 psu day-1. While time dilution (Syst obtained for 0.245 day-1 or 5.87 hours. Nutrient budget in the surface layer obtained by the system is autotrophic while in layers near the bottom tend to be heterotrophic

  7. Inverse grey-box model-based control of a dielectric elastomer actuator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Richard William; Sarban, Rahimullah

    2012-01-01

    control performance across the operating range of the DE actuator, a gain scheduling term, which linearizes the operating characteristics of the tubular dielectric elastomer actuator, is developed and implemented in series with the IMC controller. The IMC-based approach is investigated for servo control......An accurate physical-based electromechanical model of a commercially available tubular dielectric elastomer (DE) actuator has been developed and validated. In this contribution, the use of the physical-based electromechanical model to formulate a model-based controller is examined. The choice...... of control scheme was dictated by the desire for transparency in both controller design and operation. The internal model control (IMC) approach was chosen. In this particular application, the inverse of the linearized form of the grey-box model is used to formulate the IMC controller. To ensure consistent...

  8. VBSM: VCC-Based Black Box Service Model with Enhanced Data Integrity

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Won; Lee, Jae; Park, Jong

    2014-01-01

    Recently, intelligent transport systems have been applied to vehicle cloud environments. Such technology is especially useful for the systematic management of road traffic. Moreover, automobiles are increasingly equipped with a black box for accident prevention and preservation of evidence. Vehicle black boxes have become mandatory because black box images and voice data have served as forensic evidence in courts. However, the data from black boxes can be forged or modified by man-in-the-midd...

  9. A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Yusuke; Maruo, Kazushi; Partlett, Christopher; Riley, Richard D

    2017-07-19

    In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and prediction intervals from the normal random effects model. The

  10. A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Yamaguchi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. Methods We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. Results A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and

  11. Internal Structural Design of the Common Research Model Wing Box for Aeroelastic Tailoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutte, Christine V.; Stanford, Bret K.; Wieseman, Carol D.

    2015-01-01

    This work explores the use of alternative internal structural designs within a full-scale wing box structure for aeroelastic tailoring, with a focus on curvilinear spars, ribs, and stringers. The baseline wing model is a fully-populated, cantilevered wing box structure of the Common Research Model (CRM). Metrics of interest include the wing weight, the onset of dynamic flutter, and the static aeroelastic stresses. Twelve parametric studies alter the number of internal structural members along with their location, orientation, and curvature. Additional evaluation metrics are considered to identify design trends that lead to lighter-weight, aeroelastically stable wing designs. The best designs of the individual studies are compared and discussed, with a focus on weight reduction and flutter resistance. The largest weight reductions were obtained by removing the inner spar, and performance was maintained by shifting stringers forward and/or using curvilinear ribs: 5.6% weight reduction, a 13.9% improvement in flutter speed, but a 3.0% increase in stress levels. Flutter resistance was also maintained using straight-rotated ribs although the design had a 4.2% lower flutter speed than the curved ribs of similar weight and stress levels were higher. For some configurations, the differences between curved and straight ribs were smaller, which provides motivation for future optimization-based studies to fully exploit the trade-offs.

  12. BOX-COX transformation and random regression models for fecal egg count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Vinicius Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants fecal egg count (FEC is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6,375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (covariance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4 adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

  13. Box-Cox Transformation and Random Regression Models for Fecal egg Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Gualberto Barbosa; Van Tassell, Curtis P; Sonstegard, Tad S; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo; Gasbarre, Louis C

    2011-01-01

    Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants, fecal egg count (FEC) is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used in an effort to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often still not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (co)variance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM) for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4) adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

  14. Analysis of a genetically structured variance heterogeneity model using the Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ye; Christensen, Ole F; Sorensen, Daniel

    2011-02-01

    Over recent years, statistical support for the presence of genetic factors operating at the level of the environmental variance has come from fitting a genetically structured heterogeneous variance model to field or experimental data in various species. Misleading results may arise due to skewness of the marginal distribution of the data. To investigate how the scale of measurement affects inferences, the genetically structured heterogeneous variance model is extended to accommodate the family of Box-Cox transformations. Litter size data in rabbits and pigs that had previously been analysed in the untransformed scale were reanalysed in a scale equal to the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of the Box-Cox parameter. In the rabbit data, the statistical evidence for a genetic component at the level of the environmental variance is considerably weaker than that resulting from an analysis in the original metric. In the pig data, the statistical evidence is stronger, but the coefficient of correlation between additive genetic effects affecting mean and variance changes sign, compared to the results in the untransformed scale. The study confirms that inferences on variances can be strongly affected by the presence of asymmetry in the distribution of data. We recommend that to avoid one important source of spurious inferences, future work seeking support for a genetic component acting on environmental variation using a parametric approach based on normality assumptions confirms that these are met.

  15. A dynamic box model of bioactive elements in the southern Taiwan Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua-Sheng, Hong; Shao-Ling, Shang

    1994-06-01

    A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO4-P, NO3-N, AOU, POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on the field data of the “Minnan Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground Upwelling Ecosystem Study” during the period of Dec. 1987-Nov. 1988. According to the unique hydrological and topographical features of the region, six boxes and three layers were considered in the model. The variation rates and fluxes of elements induced by horizontal current, upwelling, by diffusion, sinking of particles and biogeochemical processes were estimated respectively. Results further confirmed that upwellings had important effects in this region. The nearshore upwelling areas had net input fluxes of nutrients brought by upwelling water, also had high depletion rates of nutrients and production rates of particulate organic matter and dissolved oxygen. The abnormal net production of nutrients in the middle layer, (10-30 m) indicated the important role of bacteria in this high production region. The phytoplankton POC contributed about 28% of the total POC. POC settling out from the euphotic zone was estimated to be 2×10-6 g/(m2·s) which was about 35% of the primary production.

  16. On the modeling of gas flow through porous compression packings used in valve stuffing-boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazeminia, Mehdi; Bouzid, Abdel-Hakim

    2015-01-01

    Predicting leak rate through porous compression packing rings is a significant challenge for the design of packed stuffing boxes. Although few studies have been conducted to predict the leak rate through these seals, there is no comprehensive standard procedure to be used to design compression packings for a maximum tolerated leak for a given application. With the ubiquitous use of the yarned packing rings and the strict regulations on fugitive emissions and the new environment protection laws quantification of leak rate through yarned stuffing boxes becomes more than necessary and a tightness criteria based design procedure must be developed. In this study a new approach to predict leak rate through compression packing rings has been developed. It is based on Darcy's model to which Klinkenberg slip effect is incorporated. The predicted leak rates are compared to those measured experimentally using two different graphite-based packing rings subjected to different compression levels and pressures. A good agreement is found between the predicted and the measured leak rates which illustrates the validity of the developed model. (author)

  17. Surface modeling of workpiece and tool trajectory planning for spray painting robot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Tang

    Full Text Available Automated tool trajectory planning for spray-painting robots is still a challenging problem, especially for a large free-form surface. A grid approximation of a free-form surface is adopted in CAD modeling in this paper. A free-form surface model is approximated by a set of flat patches. We describe here an efficient and flexible tool trajectory optimization scheme using T-Bézier curves calculated in a new way from trigonometrical bases. The distance between the spray gun and the free-form surface along the normal vector is varied. Automotive body parts, which are large free-form surfaces, are used to test the scheme. The experimental results show that the trajectory planning algorithm achieves satisfactory performance. This algorithm can also be extended to other applications.

  18. Model-Free Trajectory Optimisation for Unmanned Aircraft Serving as Data Ferries for Widespread Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Pearre

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Given multiple widespread stationary data sources such as ground-based sensors, an unmanned aircraft can fly over the sensors and gather the data via a wireless link. Performance criteria for such a network may incorporate costs such as trajectory length for the aircraft or the energy required by the sensors for radio transmission. Planning is hampered by the complex vehicle and communication dynamics and by uncertainty in the locations of sensors, so we develop a technique based on model-free learning. We present a stochastic optimisation method that allows the data-ferrying aircraft to optimise data collection trajectories through an unknown environment in situ, obviating the need for system identification. We compare two trajectory representations, one that learns near-optimal trajectories at low data requirements but that fails at high requirements, and one that gives up some performance in exchange for a data collection guarantee. With either encoding the ferry is able to learn significantly improved trajectories compared with alternative heuristics. To demonstrate the versatility of the model-free learning approach, we also learn a policy to minimise the radio transmission energy required by the sensor nodes, allowing prolonged network lifetime.

  19. Grey Box Modelling of Flow in Sewer Systems with State Dependent Diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Thordarson, Fannar Örn; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2011-01-01

    . It is shown that an additive diffusion noise term description leads to a violation of the physical constraints of the system, whereas a state dependent diffusion noise avoids this problem and should be favoured. It is also shown that a logarithmic transformation of the flow measurements secures positive lower...... flow prediction limits, because the observation noise is proportionally scaled with the modelled output. Finally it is concluded that a state proportional diffusion term best and adequately describes the one-step flow prediction uncertainty, and a proper description of the system noise is important......Generating flow forecasts with uncertainty limits from rain gauge inputs in sewer systems require simple models with identifiable parameters that can adequately describe the stochastic phenomena of the system. In this paper, a simple grey-box model is proposed that is attractive for both...

  20. Virtual Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Hilary; Skov, Mikael B.; Stougaard, Malthe

    2007-01-01

    . This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  1. Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

    2018-04-01

    The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

  2. Classical trajectory perspective of atomic ionization in strong laser fields. Semiclassical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Dealing with timely and interesting issues in strong laser physics. Illustrates complex strong field atomic ionization with the simple semiclassical model of classical trajectory perspective for the first time. Provides a theoretical model that can be used to account for recent experiments. The ionization of atoms and molecules in strong laser fields is an active field in modern physics and has versatile applications in such as attosecond physics, X-ray generation, inertial confined fusion (ICF), medical science and so on. Classical Trajectory Perspective of Atomic Ionization in Strong Laser Fields covers the basic concepts in this field and discusses many interesting topics using the semiclassical model of classical trajectory ensemble simulation, which is one of the most successful ionization models and has the advantages of a clear picture, feasible computing and accounting for many exquisite experiments quantitatively. The book also presents many applications of the model in such topics as the single ionization, double ionization, neutral atom acceleration and other timely issues in strong field physics, and delivers useful messages to readers with presenting the classical trajectory perspective on the strong field atomic ionization. The book is intended for graduate students and researchers in the field of laser physics, atom molecule physics and theoretical physics. Dr. Jie Liu is a professor of Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, China and Peking University.

  3. Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-12-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

  4. Marine Ecosystem Modeling Beyond the Box: Using GIS to Study Carbon Fluxes in a Coastal Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Joensson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-01-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phyto benthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem

  5. Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, M.

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, transport mode choice was primarily examined as a stand alone problem. Given a purpose and destination, the choice of transport mode was modelled as a function of the various attributes of the transport mode alternatives. Later, transport mode choice decisions were modelled as part of

  6. Application of Back Trajectory Model to Predict Long Range Transport of Pollutant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shamsiah Abdul Rahman; Mohd Suhaimi Hamzah; Mohd Suhaimi Elias

    2011-01-01

    Trans-boundary haze pollution in Malaysia has become an issue that created a public attention over the past several years. The presence of haze not only caused by internal and external sources but it sometime coincided with the El Nino phenomenon which prolonged the dry season during the southwest monsoon in May to September. In this study fine particulate data (PM 2.5) of Klang Valley region covering the period from 1997 to 2008 were used to investigate the source location that responsible for the long range transport of pollutant. Back trajectory model the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) was used to calculate the air mass backward trajectories up to 120 hours (5 days) for the days when fine particle were sampled. (author)

  7. IEA Common Exercise 4: ARX, ARMAX and grey-box models for thermal performance characterization of the test box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff

    -biased and accurate estimates of the essential performance parameters, including reliable uncertainties of the estimates. Important is also the development of methodologies for analyzing the quality of data, for example correlated inputs and lack of information in data (e.g. if no clearsky days with direct solar...... for the Common Exercise 3b (CE3) data measured in Belgium and the results are compared. The focus in this report is on model selection and validation enabling a stable and reliable performance assessment. Basically, the challenge is to find a procedure for each type of model, which can give un...

  8. Trajectories of Attentional Development: An Exploration with the Master Activation Map Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, George A.; Lete, Bernard; Ducrot, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    The developmental trajectories of several attention components, such as orienting, inhibition, and the guidance of selection by relevance (i.e., advance knowledge relevant to the task) were investigated in 498 participants (ages 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 20). The paradigm was based on Michael et al.'s (2006) master activation map model and consisted of…

  9. The two-box model of climate: limitations and applications to planetary habitability and maximum entropy production studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ralph D

    2010-05-12

    The 'two-box model' of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator-pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b.

  10. Verification of Simulation Results Using Scale Model Flight Test Trajectories

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Obermark, Jeff

    2004-01-01

    .... A second compromise scaling law was investigated as a possible improvement. For ejector-driven events at minimum sideslip, the most important variables for scale model construction are the mass moment of inertia and ejector...

  11. [A test of the focusing hypothesis for category judgment: an explanation using the mental-box model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatori, Tsuyoshi; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fujii, Satoshi; Ideno, Takashi

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents a new model of category judgment. The model hypothesizes that, when more attention is focused on a category, the psychological range of the category gets narrower (category-focusing hypothesis). We explain this hypothesis by using the metaphor of a "mental-box" model: the more attention that is focused on a mental box (i.e., a category set), the smaller the size of the box becomes (i.e., a cardinal number of the category set). The hypothesis was tested in an experiment (N = 40), where the focus of attention on prescribed verbal categories was manipulated. The obtained data gave support to the hypothesis: category-focusing effects were found in three experimental tasks (regarding the category of "food", "height", and "income"). The validity of the hypothesis was discussed based on the results.

  12. UAV-based mapping, back analysis and trajectory modeling of a coseismic rockfall in Lefkada island, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saroglou, Charalampos; Asteriou, Pavlos; Zekkos, Dimitrios; Tsiambaos, George; Clark, Marin; Manousakis, John

    2018-01-01

    We present field evidence and a kinematic study of a rock block mobilized in the Ponti area by a Mw = 6.5 earthquake near the island of Lefkada on 17 November 2015. A detailed survey was conducted using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with an ultrahigh definition (UHD) camera, which produced a high-resolution orthophoto and a digital terrain model (DTM). The sequence of impact marks from the rock trajectory on the ground surface was identified from the orthophoto and field verified. Earthquake characteristics were used to estimate the acceleration of the rock slope and the initial condition of the detached block. Using the impact points from the measured rockfall trajectory, an analytical reconstruction of the trajectory was undertaken, which led to insights on the coefficients of restitution (CORs). The measured trajectory was compared with modeled rockfall trajectories using recommended parameters. However, the actual trajectory could not be accurately predicted, revealing limitations of existing rockfall analysis software used in engineering practice.

  13. MODELING THE FLIGHT TRAJECTORY OF OPERATIONAL-TACTICAL BALLISTIC MISSILES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Filipchenko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the basic approaches to updating the systems of combat operations modeling in the part of enemy missile attack simulation taking into account the possibility of tactical ballistic missile maneuvering during the flight. The results of simulation of combat tactical missile defense operations are given. 

  14. Tracers vs. trajectories in a coastal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engqvist, A.; Döös, K.

    2008-12-01

    Two different methods of estimating the water exchange through a Baltic coastal region have been used, consisting of particle trajectories and passive tracers. Water is traced from and to a small discharge region near the coast. The discharge material in this region is treated as zero dimensional particles or tracers with neutral buoyancy. The real discharge material could be a leakage of radio-nuclides through the sea floor from an underground repository of nuclear waste. Water exchange rates between the discharge region and the model domain are estimated using both forward and backward trajectories as well as passive tracers. The Lagrangian trajectories can account for the time evolution of the water exchange while the tracers give one average age per model grid box. Water exchange times such as residence time, age and transient times have been calculated with trajectories but only the average age (AvA) for tracers. The trajectory calculations provide a more detailed time evolution than the tracers. On the other hand the tracers are integrated "on-line" simultaneously in the sea circulation model with the same time step while the Lagrangian trajectories are integrated "off-line" from the stored model velocities with its inherent temporal resolution, presently one hour. The sub-grid turbulence is parameterised as a Laplacian diffusion for the passive tracers and with an extra stochastic velocity for trajectories. The importance of the parameterised sub-grid turbulence for the trajectories is estimated to give an extra diffusion of the same order as the Laplacian diffusion by comparing the Lagrangian dispersions with and without parameterisation. The results of the different methods are similar but depend on the chosen diffusivity coefficient with a slightly higher correlation between trajectories and tracers when integrated with a lower diffusivity coefficient.

  15. Interpretable inference on the mixed effect model with the Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruo, K; Yamaguchi, Y; Noma, H; Gosho, M

    2017-07-10

    We derived results for inference on parameters of the marginal model of the mixed effect model with the Box-Cox transformation based on the asymptotic theory approach. We also provided a robust variance estimator of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of this model in consideration of the model misspecifications. Using these results, we developed an inference procedure for the difference of the model median between treatment groups at the specified occasion in the context of mixed effects models for repeated measures analysis for randomized clinical trials, which provided interpretable estimates of the treatment effect. From simulation studies, it was shown that our proposed method controlled type I error of the statistical test for the model median difference in almost all the situations and had moderate or high performance for power compared with the existing methods. We illustrated our method with cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) data in an AIDS clinical trial, where the interpretability of the analysis results based on our proposed method is demonstrated. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Hemoadsorption of high-mobility-group box 1 using a porous polymethylmethacrylate fiber in a swine acute liver failure model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amemiya, Ryusuke; Shinoda, Masahiro; Yamada, Masayuki; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Shimada, Kaoru; Fujieda, Hiroaki; Yagi, Hiroshi; Mizota, Takamasa; Nishiyama, Ryo; Oshima, Go; Yamada, Shingo; Matsubara, Kentaro; Abe, Yuta; Hibi, Taizo; Kitago, Minoru; Obara, Hideaki; Itano, Osamu; Kitagawa, Yuko

    2018-04-01

    High-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 has been identified as an important mediator of various kinds of acute and chronic inflammation. In this study, we aimed to develop a column that effectively adsorbs high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 by altering the pore size of the fiber. First, we produced three types of porous polymethylmethacrylate fiber by altering the concentration of polymethylmethacrylate dissolved in dimethylsulfoxide. We then selected a fiber based on the results of an in vitro incubation test of high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 adsorption. Using the selected fiber, we constructed a new column and tested its high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 adsorption capacity during 4-h extracorporeal hemoperfusion in a swine acute liver failure model. Electron microscope observation showed that the three types of fibers had different pore sizes on the surface and in cross section, which were dependent on the concentration of polymethylmethacrylate. In the in vitro incubation test, fiber with moderate-sized pores demonstrated the highest adsorption capacity. In the in vivo hemoperfusion study, the ratio of the high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 concentration at the outlet versus the inlet of the column was significantly lower with the new column than with the control column during 4-h extracorporeal hemoperfusion. The normalized plasma level of high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 at 12 h after the completion of hemoperfusion was significantly lower with the new column than with the control column. The newly developed polymethylmethacrylate column adsorbs high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 during hemoperfusion in swine ALF model.

  17. Modeling smog along the Los Angeles-Palm Springs trajectory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, S.R.

    1976-01-01

    Observations of smog concentrations and wind patterns during the summer of 1973 in Los Angeles, Pomona, Riverside, Banning, and Palm Springs, California are presented which show that high oxidant concentrations at Banning and Palm Springs are often due to advection of smog from source regions in the more densely populated western part of the Los Angeles basin. At Pomona and Riverside, advection from upwind source regions combines with the effects of local emissions to cause long durations of high oxidant concentrations with peak times in the mid afternoon. An empirical model for the diurnal oxidant variation is suggested which satisfactorily simulates observed concentrations. More complex models which include chemical kinetics systems do not perform very satisfactorily at the rural stations of Banning and Palm Springs, especially at night when observed oxidant concentrations remain high

  18. Modelling cosmic ray intensities along the Ulysses trajectory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Ndiitwani

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Time dependent cosmic ray modulation in the inner heliosphere is studied by comparing results from a 2-D, time-dependent cosmic ray transport model with Ulysses observations. A compound approach, which combines the effects of the global changes in the heliospheric magnetic field magnitude with drifts to establish a realistic time-dependence, in the diffusion and drift coefficients, are used. We show that this model results in realistic cosmic ray modulation from the Ulysses launch (1990 until recently (2004 when compared to 2.5-GV electron and proton and 1.2-GV electron and Helium observations from this spacecraft. This approach is also applied to compute radial gradients present in 2.5-GV cosmic ray electron and protons in the inner heliosphere. The observed latitude dependence for both positive and negative charged particles during both the fast latitude scan periods, corresponding to different solar activity conditions, could also be realistically computed. For this an additional reduction in particle drifts (compared to diffusion toward solar maximum is needed. This results in a realistic charge-sign dependent modulation at solar maximum and the model is also applied to predict charge-sign dependent modulation up to the next expected solar minimum.

  19. Improved method for calibration of exchange flows for a physical transport box model of Tampa Bay, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Results for both sequential and simultaneous calibration of exchange flows between segments of a 10-box, one-dimensional, well-mixed, bifurcated tidal mixing model for Tampa Bay are reported. Calibrations were conducted for three model options with different mathematical expressi...

  20. Why the Particle-in-a-Box Model Works Well for Cyanine Dyes but Not for Conjugated Polyenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autschbach, Jochen

    2007-01-01

    We investigate why the particle-in-a-box (PB) model works well for calculating the absorption wavelengths of cyanine dyes and why it does not work for conjugated polyenes. The PB model is immensely useful in the classroom, but owing to its highly approximate character there is little reason to expect that it can yield quantitative agreement with…

  1. Geochemical monitoring of volcanic lakes. A generalized box model for active crater lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Tassi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the past, variations in the chemical contents (SO42−, Cl−, cations of crater lake water have not systematically demonstrated any relationships with eruptive activity. Intensive parameters (i.e., concentrations, temperature, pH, salinity should be converted into extensive parameters (i.e., fluxes, changes with time of mass and solutes, taking into account all the internal and external chemical–physical factors that affect the crater lake system. This study presents a generalized box model approach that can be useful for geochemical monitoring of active crater lakes, as highly dynamic natural systems. The mass budget of a lake is based on observations of physical variations over a certain period of time: lake volume (level, surface area, lake water temperature, meteorological precipitation, air humidity, wind velocity, input of spring water, and overflow of the lake. This first approach leads to quantification of the input and output fluxes that contribute to the actual crater lake volume. Estimating the input flux of the "volcanic" fluid (Qf- kg/s –– an unmeasurable subsurface parameter –– and tracing its variations with time is the major focus during crater lake monitoring. Through expanding the mass budget into an isotope and chemical budget of the lake, the box model helps to qualitatively characterize the fluids involved. The (calculated Cl− content and dD ratio of the rising "volcanic" fluid defines its origin. With reference to continuous monitoring of crater lakes, the present study provides tips that allow better calculation of Qf in the future. At present, this study offers the most comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on active crater lakes.

  2. Real-time process optimization based on grey-box neural models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. A. Cubillos

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the feasibility of using grey-box neural models (GNM in Real Time Optimization (RTO. These models are based on a suitable combination of fundamental conservation laws and neural networks, being used in at least two different ways: to complement available phenomenological knowledge with empirical information, or to reduce dimensionality of complex rigorous physical models. We have observed that the benefits of using these simple adaptable models are counteracted by some difficulties associated with the solution of the optimization problem. Nonlinear Programming (NLP algorithms failed in finding the global optimum due to the fact that neural networks can introduce multimodal objective functions. One alternative considered to solve this problem was the use of some kind of evolutionary algorithms, like Genetic Algorithms (GA. Although these algorithms produced better results in terms of finding the appropriate region, they took long periods of time to reach the global optimum. It was found that a combination of genetic and nonlinear programming algorithms can be use to fast obtain the optimum solution. The proposed approach was applied to the Williams-Otto reactor, considering three different GNM models of increasing complexity. Results demonstrated that the use of GNM models and mixed GA/NLP optimization algorithms is a promissory approach for solving dynamic RTO problems.

  3. Online identification of wind model for improving quadcopter trajectory monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniak, Ryszard; Gudzenko, Oleksandr

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a problem of quadcopter control in severe weather conditions. One type of such weather conditions is a strong variable wind. In this paper, we ponder deterministic and stochastic models of winds at low altitudes with the quadcopter performing aggressive maneuvers. We choose an adaptive algorithm as our control algorithm. This algorithm might seem suitable one to solve the given problem, as it is able to adjust quickly to changing conditions. However, as shown in the paper, this algorithm is not applicable to rapidly changing winds and requires additional filters to smooth the impulse streams, so as not to lose the stability of the object.

  4. Online identification of wind model for improving quadcopter trajectory monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beniak Ryszard

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a problem of quadcopter control in severe weather conditions. One type of such weather conditions is a strong variable wind. In this paper, we ponder deterministic and stochastic models of winds at low altitudes with the quadcopter performing aggressive maneuvers. We choose an adaptive algorithm as our control algorithm. This algorithm might seem suitable one to solve the given problem, as it is able to adjust quickly to changing conditions. However, as shown in the paper, this algorithm is not applicable to rapidly changing winds and requires additional filters to smooth the impulse streams, so as not to lose the stability of the object.

  5. Optimizing Cruising Routes for Taxi Drivers Using a Spatio-Temporal Trajectory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Wu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Much of the taxi route-planning literature has focused on driver strategies for finding passengers and determining the hot spot pick-up locations using historical global positioning system (GPS trajectories of taxis based on driver experience, distance from the passenger drop-off location to the next passenger pick-up location and the waiting times at recommended locations for the next passenger. The present work, however, considers the average taxi travel speed mined from historical taxi GPS trajectory data and the allocation of cruising routes to more than one taxi driver in a small-scale region to neighboring pick-up locations. A spatio-temporal trajectory model with load balancing allocations is presented to not only explore pick-up/drop-off information but also provide taxi drivers with cruising routes to the recommended pick-up locations. In simulation experiments, our study shows that taxi drivers using cruising routes recommended by our spatio-temporal trajectory model can significantly reduce the average waiting time and travel less distance to quickly find their next passengers, and the load balancing strategy significantly alleviates road loads. These objective measures can help us better understand spatio-temporal traffic patterns and guide taxi navigation.

  6. Quadrotor Trajectory Tracking Based on Quasi-LPV System and Internal Model Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZeFang He

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Internal model control (IMC design method based on quasi-LPV (Linear Parameter Varying system is proposed. In this method, the nonlinear model is firstly transformed to the linear model based on quasi-LPV method; then, the quadrotor nonlinear motion function is transformed to transfer function matrix based on the transformation model from the state space to the transfer function; further, IMC is designed to control the controlled object represented by transfer function matrix and realize quadrotor trajectory tracking. The performance of the controller proposed in this paper is tested by tracking for three reference trajectories with drastic changes. The simulation results indicate that the control method proposed in this paper has stronger robustness to parameters uncertainty and disturbance rejection performance.

  7. Detection of Diffusion Heterogeneity in Single Particle Tracking Trajectories Using a Hidden Markov Model with Measurement Noise Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slator, Paddy J.; Cairo, Christopher W.; Burroughs, Nigel J.

    2015-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian analysis framework to detect heterogeneity in the diffusive behaviour of single particle trajectories on cells, implementing model selection to classify trajectories as either consistent with Brownian motion or with a two-state (diffusion coefficient) switching model. The incorporation of localisation accuracy is essential, as otherwise false detection of switching within a trajectory was observed and diffusion coefficient estimates were inflated. Since our analysis is on a single trajectory basis, we are able to examine heterogeneity between trajectories in a quantitative manner. Applying our method to the lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1 (LFA-1) receptor tagged with latex beads (4 s trajectories at 1000 frames s−1), both intra- and inter-trajectory heterogeneity were detected; 12–26% of trajectories display clear switching between diffusive states dependent on condition, whilst the inter-trajectory variability is highly structured with the diffusion coefficients being related by D 1 = 0.68D 0 − 1.5 × 104 nm2 s−1, suggestive that on these time scales we are detecting switching due to a single process. Further, the inter-trajectory variability of the diffusion coefficient estimates (1.6 × 102 − 2.6 × 105 nm2 s−1) is very much larger than the measurement uncertainty within trajectories, suggesting that LFA-1 aggregation and cytoskeletal interactions are significantly affecting mobility, whilst the timescales of these processes are distinctly different giving rise to inter- and intra-trajectory variability. There is also an ‘immobile’ state (defined as D models within membranes incorporating aggregation, binding to the cytoskeleton, or traversing membrane microdomains. PMID:26473352

  8. Visual Trajectory-Tracking Model-Based Control for Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Zdešar

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a visual-control algorithm for driving a mobile robot along the reference trajectory. The configuration of the system consists of a two-wheeled differentially driven mobile robot that is observed by an overhead camera, which can be placed at arbitrary, but reasonable, inclination with respect to the ground plane. The controller must be capable of generating appropriate tangential and angular control velocities for the trajectory-tracking problem, based on the information received about the robot position obtained in the image. To be able to track the position of the robot through a sequence of images in real-time, the robot is marked with an artificial marker that can be distinguishably recognized by the image recognition subsystem. Using the property of differential flatness, a dynamic feedback compensator can be designed for the system, thereby extending the system into a linear form. The presented control algorithm for reference tracking combines a feedforward and a feedback loop, the structure also known as a two DOF control scheme. The feedforward part should drive the system to the vicinity of the reference trajectory and the feedback part should eliminate any errors that occur due to noise and other disturbances etc. The feedforward control can never achieve accurate reference following, but this deficiency can be eliminated with the introduction of the feedback loop. The design of the model predictive control is based on the linear error model. The model predictive control is given in analytical form, so the computational burden is kept at a reasonable level for real-time implementation. The control algorithm requires that a reference trajectory is at least twice differentiable function. A suitable approach to design such a trajectory is by exploiting some useful properties of the Bernstein-Bézier parametric curves. The simulation experiments as well as real system experiments on a robot normally used in the

  9. Determining Trajectory of Triboelectrically Charged Particles, Using Discrete Element Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory is participating in an Innovative Partnership Program (IPP) project with an industry partner to modify a commercial off-the-shelf simulation software product to treat the electrodynamics of particulate systems. Discrete element modeling (DEM) is a numerical technique that can track the dynamics of particle systems. This technique, which was introduced in 1979 for analysis of rock mechanics, was recently refined to include the contact force interaction of particles with arbitrary surfaces and moving machinery. In our work, we endeavor to incorporate electrostatic forces into the DEM calculations to enhance the fidelity of the software and its applicability to (1) particle processes, such as electrophotography, that are greatly affected by electrostatic forces, (2) grain and dust transport, and (3) the study of lunar and Martian regoliths.

  10. TRADOS - an air trajectory dose model for long range transport of radioactive release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, J.; Valkama, I.

    1985-01-01

    A model for estimating radiation doses resulting from long range atmospheric transport of released radionuclides in accidents is precented. The model (TRADOS) is able to treat changing diffusion conditions. For example the plume can be exposed to temporary rain, changes in turbulence and mixing depth. This can result in considerable changes in individual doses. The method is applied to an example trajectory and the doses caused by a serious reactor accident are calculated

  11. An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, W.B.; Huang, N.E.; Amstutz, D.E.

    1982-01-01

    The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear. ?? 1982.

  12. Characterization of bead trajectories through the draft tube of a turbine physical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiland, M. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mueller, R. P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Deng, Z. D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McKinstry, C. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2005-02-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) makes extensive use of 1:25 scale Plexiglass models of hydroelectric turbines along the Columbia River to study turbine hydraulic performance and to identify potential hazards for fish passing through the turbines. Plastic beads are sent through the models and imaging has been done with laser Doppler velocimetry and high-speed videography to measure flow field variables and to study the probable paths of fish through the turbine units. Understanding has been limited by the lack of data showing actual bead trajectories in three dimensions (3-D) and the lack of quantified velocity, acceleration, and other kinematics describing the trajectories of beads as they pass through the physical models.

  13. A nonlinear isobologram model with Box-Cox transformation to both sides for chemical mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, D G; Pounds, J G

    1998-12-01

    The linear logistical isobologram is a commonly used and powerful graphical and statistical tool for analyzing the combined effects of simple chemical mixtures. In this paper a nonlinear isobologram model is proposed to analyze the joint action of chemical mixtures for quantitative dose-response relationships. This nonlinear isobologram model incorporates two additional new parameters, Ymin and Ymax, to facilitate analysis of response data that are not constrained between 0 and 1, where parameters Ymin and Ymax represent the minimal and the maximal observed toxic response. This nonlinear isobologram model for binary mixtures can be expressed as [formula: see text] In addition, a Box-Cox transformation to both sides is introduced to improve the goodness of fit and to provide a more robust model for achieving homogeneity and normality of the residuals. Finally, a confidence band is proposed for selected isobols, e.g., the median effective dose, to facilitate graphical and statistical analysis of the isobologram. The versatility of this approach is demonstrated using published data describing the toxicity of the binary mixtures of citrinin and ochratoxin as well as a new experimental data from our laboratory for mixtures of mercury and cadmium.

  14. Microscopic Model of Automobile Lane-changing Virtual Desire Trajectory by Spline Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulong Pei

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available With the development of microscopic traffic simulation models, they have increasingly become an important tool for transport system analysis and management, which assist the traffic engineer to investigate and evaluate the performance of transport network systems. Lane-changing model is a vital component in any traffic simulation model, which could improve road capacity and reduce vehicles delay so as to reduce the likelihood of congestion occurrence. Therefore, this paper addresses the virtual desire trajectory, a vital part to investigate the behaviour divided into four phases. Based on the boundary conditions, β-spline curves and the corresponding reverse algorithm are introduced firstly. Thus, the relation between the velocity and length of lane-changing is constructed, restricted by the curvature, steering velocity and driving behaviour. Then the virtual desire trajectory curves are presented by Matlab and the error analysis results prove that this proposed description model has higher precision in automobile lane-changing process reconstruction, compared with the surveyed result. KEY WORDS: traffic simulation, lane-changing model, virtual desire trajectory, β-spline curves, driving behaviour

  15. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  16. Trajectory-based morphological operators: a model for efficient image processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimeno-Morenilla, Antonio; Pujol, Francisco A; Molina-Carmona, Rafael; Sánchez-Romero, José L; Pujol, Mar

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical morphology has been an area of intensive research over the last few years. Although many remarkable advances have been achieved throughout these years, there is still a great interest in accelerating morphological operations in order for them to be implemented in real-time systems. In this work, we present a new model for computing mathematical morphology operations, the so-called morphological trajectory model (MTM), in which a morphological filter will be divided into a sequence of basic operations. Then, a trajectory-based morphological operation (such as dilation, and erosion) is defined as the set of points resulting from the ordered application of the instant basic operations. The MTM approach allows working with different structuring elements, such as disks, and from the experiments, it can be extracted that our method is independent of the structuring element size and can be easily applied to industrial systems and high-resolution images.

  17. Exact solution of gyration radius of individual's trajectory for a simplified human mobility model

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiao-Yong; Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhou, Tao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2010-01-01

    Gyration radius of individual's trajectory plays a key role in quantifying human mobility patterns. Of particular interests, empirical analyses suggest that the growth of gyration radius is slow versus time except the very early stage and may eventually arrive to a steady value. However, up to now, the underlying mechanism leading to such a possibly steady value has not been well understood. In this Letter, we propose a simplified human mobility model to simulate individual's daily travel wit...

  18. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for the North Atlantic Aircraft Trajectory Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Sbihi , Mohammed; Rodionova , Olga; Delahaye , Daniel; Mongeau , Marcel

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This paper discusses the trajectory planning problem for ights in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT). We develop a mathematical optimization framework in view of better utilizing available capacity by re-routing aircraft. The model is constructed by discretizing the problem parameters. A Mixed integer linear program (MILP) is proposed. Based on the MILP a heuristic to solve real-size instances is also introduced

  19. Optimizing Likelihood Models for Particle Trajectory Segmentation in Multi-State Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Dylan Christopher; Scrimgeour, Jan

    2018-06-19

    Particle tracking offers significant insight into the molecular mechanics that govern the behav- ior of living cells. The analysis of molecular trajectories that transition between different motive states, such as diffusive, driven and tethered modes, is of considerable importance, with even single trajectories containing significant amounts of information about a molecule's environment and its interactions with cellular structures. Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely adopted to perform the segmentation of such complex tracks. In this paper, we show that extensive analysis of hidden Markov model outputs using data derived from multi-state Brownian dynamics simulations can be used both for the optimization of the likelihood models used to describe the states of the system and for characterization of the technique's failure mechanisms. This analysis was made pos- sible by the implementation of parallelized adaptive direct search algorithm on a Nvidia graphics processing unit. This approach provides critical information for the visualization of HMM failure and successful design of particle tracking experiments where trajectories contain multiple mobile states. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  20. Unconventional Constraints on Nitrogen Chemistry using DC3 Observations and Trajectory-based Chemical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Q.; Henderson, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Chemical transport models underestimate nitrogen dioxide observations in the upper troposphere (UT). Previous research in the UT succeeded in combining model predictions with field campaign measurements to demonstrate that the nitric acid formation rate (HO + NO2 → HNO3 (R1)) is overestimated by 22% (Henderson et al., 2012). A subsequent publication (Seltzer et al., 2015) demonstrated that single chemical constraint alters ozone and aerosol formation/composition. This work attempts to replicate previous chemical constraints with newer observations and a different modeling framework. We apply the previously successful constraint framework to Deep Convection Clouds and Chemistry (DC3). DC3 is a more recent field campaign where simulated nitrogen imbalances still exist. Freshly convected air parcels, identified in the DC3 dataset, as initial coordinates to initiate Lagrangian trajectories. Along each trajectory, we simulate the air parcel chemical state. Samples along the trajectories will form ensembles that represent possible realizations of UT air parcels. We then apply Bayesian inference to constrain nitrogen chemistry and compare results to the existing literature. Our anticipated results will confirm overestimation of HNO3 formation rate in previous work and provide further constraints on other nitrogen reaction rate coefficients that affect terminal products from NOx. We will particularly focus on organic nitrate chemistry that laboratory literature has yet to fully address. The results will provide useful insights into nitrogen chemistry that affects climate and human health.

  1. The impact of covariance misspecification in group-based trajectory models for longitudinal data with non-stationary covariance structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Christopher E; Glonek, Gary Fv; Giles, Lynne C

    2017-08-01

    One purpose of a longitudinal study is to gain a better understanding of how an outcome of interest changes among a given population over time. In what follows, a trajectory will be taken to mean the series of measurements of the outcome variable for an individual. Group-based trajectory modelling methods seek to identify subgroups of trajectories within a population, such that trajectories that are grouped together are more similar to each other than to trajectories in distinct groups. Group-based trajectory models generally assume a certain structure in the covariances between measurements, for example conditional independence, homogeneous variance between groups or stationary variance over time. Violations of these assumptions could be expected to result in poor model performance. We used simulation to investigate the effect of covariance misspecification on misclassification of trajectories in commonly used models under a range of scenarios. To do this we defined a measure of performance relative to the ideal Bayesian correct classification rate. We found that the more complex models generally performed better over a range of scenarios. In particular, incorrectly specified covariance matrices could significantly bias the results but using models with a correct but more complicated than necessary covariance matrix incurred little cost.

  2. Finite element model updating of a prestressed concrete box girder bridge using subproblem approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, G. W.; Omenzetter, P.

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the implementation of an updating procedure for the finite element model (FEM) of a prestressed concrete continuous box-girder highway off-ramp bridge. Ambient vibration testing was conducted to excite the bridge, assisted by linear chirp sweepings induced by two small electrodynamic shakes deployed to enhance the excitation levels, since the bridge was closed to traffic. The data-driven stochastic subspace identification method was executed to recover the modal properties from measurement data. An initial FEM was developed and correlation between the experimental modal results and their analytical counterparts was studied. Modelling of the pier and abutment bearings was carefully adjusted to reflect the real operational conditions of the bridge. The subproblem approximation method was subsequently utilized to automatically update the FEM. For this purpose, the influences of bearing stiffness, and mass density and Young's modulus of materials were examined as uncertain parameters using sensitivity analysis. The updating objective function was defined based on a summation of squared values of relative errors of natural frequencies between the FEM and experimentation. All the identified modes were used as the target responses with the purpose of putting more constrains for the optimization process and decreasing the number of potentially feasible combinations for parameter changes. The updated FEM of the bridge was able to produce sufficient improvements in natural frequencies in most modes of interest, and can serve for a more precise dynamic response prediction or future investigation of the bridge health.

  3. Comparisons of Box Model Calculations and Measurements of Formaldehyde from the 1997 North Atlantic Regional Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frost, G. J.; Fried, Alan; Lee, Y.- N.; Wert, B.; Henry, B.; Drummond, J. R.; Evans, M. J.; Fehsenfeld, Fred C.; Goldan, P. D.; Holloway, J. S.; Hubler, Gerhard F.; Jakoubek, R.; Jobson, B Tom T.; Knapp, K.; Kuster, W. C.; Roberts, J.; Rudolph, Jochen; Ryerson, T. B.; Stohl, A.; Stroud, C.; Sueper, D. T.; Trainer, Michael; Williams, J.

    2002-04-18

    Formaldehyde (CH2O) measurements from two independent instruments are compared with photochemical box model calculations. The measurements were made on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration P-3 aircraft as part of the 1997 North Atlantic Regional Experiment (NARE 97). The data set considered here consists of air masses sampled between 0 and 8 km over the North Atlantic Ocean which do not show recent influence from emissions or transport. These air masses therefore should be in photochemical steady state with respect to CH2O when constrained by the other P-3 measurements, and methane oxidation was expected to be the predominant source of CH2O in these air masses. For this data set both instruments measured identical CH2O concentrations to within 40 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) on average over the 0–800 pptv range, although differences larger than the combined 2s total uncertainty estimates were observed between the two instruments in 11% of the data. Both instruments produced higher CH2O concentrations than the model in more than 90% of this data set, with a median measured-modeled [CH2O] difference of 0.13 or 0.18 ppbv (depending on the instrument), or about a factor of 2. Such large differences cannot be accounted for by varying model input parameters within their respective uncertainty ranges. After examining the possible reasons for the model-measurement discrepancy, we conclude that there are probably one or more additional unknown sources of CH2O in the North Atlantic troposphere.

  4. Box modelling approach for evaluation of influence of ice transport of radionuclides for doses to man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iospje, M.

    2002-01-01

    Modelling of the ice transport of radionuclides, which is a unique pathway in the Arctic ocean and adjacent sea areas, is limited by necessity to describe complete processes of incorporation of radioactivity into ice and ice sediment. Freezing / melting processes and transport of 'clean' ice can be described with a good accuracy for relatively short time scale on the basis of the present level of modelling, but detailed description of the sediment entrainment into ice based on the Reynolds equations with attention to coagulation processes is limited by low concentration of particles (grease ice cannot be described) and time scale up to 5 . 10 -2 s (1 . 10 -9 y) what is not available for large time scale and ice masses. Adding the radioactivity incorporation into the ice with following description of transport and fate of radionuclides will lead to further increasing of the complexity of the modelling. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an alternative approach for purposes of radiological assessment on the basis of the box modelling to describe the incorporation of radioactivity into ice and ice sediment, transport of radioactivity by ice and incorporation of radioactivity into sea areas through melding processes. It is shown that the ice transport of radionuclides can be a significant factor for some scenarios and radionuclides. The influence of the ice transport increases with increasing K d values for radionuclides. It is necessary to note that the content and structure of the sediment load in ice vary within wide limits, and therefore, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis can improve the possibility to represent model results satisfactorily. (LN)

  5. Understanding Random Effects in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling: An Application of Moffitt’s Developmental Taxonomy

    OpenAIRE

    Saunders, Jessica M.

    2010-01-01

    The group-based trajectory modeling approach is a systematic way of categorizing subjects into different groups based on their developmental trajectories using formal and objective statistical criteria. With the recent advancement in methods and statistical software, modeling possibilities are almost limitless; however, parallel advances in theory development have not kept pace. This paper examines some of the modeling options that are becoming more widespread and how they impact both empiric...

  6. Accuracy of topographic index models at identifying ephemeral gully trajectories on agricultural fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheshukov, Aleksey Y.; Sekaluvu, Lawrence; Hutchinson, Stacy L.

    2018-04-01

    Topographic index (TI) models have been widely used to predict trajectories and initiation points of ephemeral gullies (EGs) in agricultural landscapes. Prediction of EGs strongly relies on the selected value of critical TI threshold, and the accuracy depends on topographic features, agricultural management, and datasets of observed EGs. This study statistically evaluated the predictions by TI models in two paired watersheds in Central Kansas that had different levels of structural disturbances due to implemented conservation practices. Four TI models with sole dependency on topographic factors of slope, contributing area, and planform curvature were used in this study. The observed EGs were obtained by field reconnaissance and through the process of hydrological reconditioning of digital elevation models (DEMs). The Kernel Density Estimation analysis was used to evaluate TI distribution within a 10-m buffer of the observed EG trajectories. The EG occurrence within catchments was analyzed using kappa statistics of the error matrix approach, while the lengths of predicted EGs were compared with the observed dataset using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) statistics. The TI frequency analysis produced bi-modal distribution of topographic indexes with the pixels within the EG trajectory having a higher peak. The graphs of kappa and NSE versus critical TI threshold showed similar profile for all four TI models and both watersheds with the maximum value representing the best comparison with the observed data. The Compound Topographic Index (CTI) model presented the overall best accuracy with NSE of 0.55 and kappa of 0.32. The statistics for the disturbed watershed showed higher best critical TI threshold values than for the undisturbed watershed. Structural conservation practices implemented in the disturbed watershed reduced ephemeral channels in headwater catchments, thus producing less variability in catchments with EGs. The variation in critical thresholds for all

  7. Modeling and Robust Trajectory Tracking Control for a Novel Six-Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshun Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling and trajectory tracking control of a novel six-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV is concerned to solve problems such as smaller payload capacity and lack of both hardware redundancy and anticrosswind capability for quad-rotor. The mathematical modeling for the six-rotor UAV is developed on the basis of the Newton-Euler formalism, and a second-order sliding-mode disturbance observer (SOSMDO is proposed to reconstruct the disturbances of the rotational dynamics. In consideration of the under-actuated and strong coupling properties of the six-rotor UAV, a nested double loops trajectory tracking control strategy is adopted. In the outer loop, a position error PID controller is designed, of which the task is to compare the desired trajectory with real position of the six-rotor UAV and export the desired attitude angles to the inner loop. In the inner loop, a rapid-convergent nonlinear differentiator (RCND is proposed to calculate the derivatives of the virtual control signal, instead of using the analytical differentiation, to avoid “differential expansion” in the procedure of the attitude controller design. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the proposed technique are demonstrated by the simulation results.

  8. Encoding Time in Feedforward Trajectories of a Recurrent Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, N F; Buonomano, Dean V

    2018-02-01

    Brain activity evolves through time, creating trajectories of activity that underlie sensorimotor processing, behavior, and learning and memory. Therefore, understanding the temporal nature of neural dynamics is essential to understanding brain function and behavior. In vivo studies have demonstrated that sequential transient activation of neurons can encode time. However, it remains unclear whether these patterns emerge from feedforward network architectures or from recurrent networks and, furthermore, what role network structure plays in timing. We address these issues using a recurrent neural network (RNN) model with distinct populations of excitatory and inhibitory units. Consistent with experimental data, a single RNN could autonomously produce multiple functionally feedforward trajectories, thus potentially encoding multiple timed motor patterns lasting up to several seconds. Importantly, the model accounted for Weber's law, a hallmark of timing behavior. Analysis of network connectivity revealed that efficiency-a measure of network interconnectedness-decreased as the number of stored trajectories increased. Additionally, the balance of excitation (E) and inhibition (I) shifted toward excitation during each unit's activation time, generating the prediction that observed sequential activity relies on dynamic control of the E/I balance. Our results establish for the first time that the same RNN can generate multiple functionally feedforward patterns of activity as a result of dynamic shifts in the E/I balance imposed by the connectome of the RNN. We conclude that recurrent network architectures account for sequential neural activity, as well as for a fundamental signature of timing behavior: Weber's law.

  9. Robust Trajectory Option Set planning in CTOP based on Bayesian game model

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Lichun; Clarke, John-Paul; Feron, Eric; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rations capacity to reduce en route delay, especially those caused by bad weather. This is accomplished via Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) which has been recently developed to provide a mechanism for flight operators to communicate their route preferences for each flight via a Trajectory Option Set (TOS), as well as a mechanism for the FAA to assign the best possible route within the set of trajectories in the TOS for a given flight, i.e. the route with the lowest adjusted cost after consideration of system constraints and the requirements of all flights. The routes assigned to an airline depend not only on the TOS's for its own flights but also on the TOS's of all other flights in the CTOP, which are unknown. This paper aims to provide a detailed algorithm for the airline to design its TOS plan which is robust to the uncertainties of its competitors' TOS's. To this purpose, we model the CTOP problem as a Bayesian game, and use Linear Program (LP) to compute the security strategy in the Bayesian game model. This security strategy guarantees the airline an upper bound on the sum of the assigned times. The numerical results demonstrate the robustness of the strategy, which is not achieved by any other tested strategy.

  10. Robust Trajectory Option Set planning in CTOP based on Bayesian game model

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Lichun

    2017-07-10

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rations capacity to reduce en route delay, especially those caused by bad weather. This is accomplished via Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) which has been recently developed to provide a mechanism for flight operators to communicate their route preferences for each flight via a Trajectory Option Set (TOS), as well as a mechanism for the FAA to assign the best possible route within the set of trajectories in the TOS for a given flight, i.e. the route with the lowest adjusted cost after consideration of system constraints and the requirements of all flights. The routes assigned to an airline depend not only on the TOS\\'s for its own flights but also on the TOS\\'s of all other flights in the CTOP, which are unknown. This paper aims to provide a detailed algorithm for the airline to design its TOS plan which is robust to the uncertainties of its competitors\\' TOS\\'s. To this purpose, we model the CTOP problem as a Bayesian game, and use Linear Program (LP) to compute the security strategy in the Bayesian game model. This security strategy guarantees the airline an upper bound on the sum of the assigned times. The numerical results demonstrate the robustness of the strategy, which is not achieved by any other tested strategy.

  11. The Y-Box Binding Protein 1 Suppresses Alzheimer's Disease Progression in Two Animal Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N V Bobkova

    Full Text Available The Y-box binding protein 1 (YB-1 is a member of the family of DNA- and RNA binding proteins. It is involved in a wide variety of DNA/RNA-dependent events including cell proliferation and differentiation, stress response, and malignant cell transformation. Previously, YB-1 was detected in neurons of the neocortex and hippocampus, but its precise role in the brain remains undefined. Here we show that subchronic intranasal injections of recombinant YB-1, as well as its fragment YB-11-219, suppress impairment of spatial memory in olfactory bulbectomized (OBX mice with Alzheimer's type degeneration and improve learning in transgenic 5XFAD mice used as a model of cerebral amyloidosis. YB-1-treated OBX and 5XFAD mice showed a decreased level of brain β-amyloid. In OBX animals, an improved morphological state of neurons was revealed in the neocortex and hippocampus; in 5XFAD mice, a delay in amyloid plaque progression was observed. Intranasally administered YB-1 penetrated into the brain and could enter neurons. In vitro co-incubation of YB-1 with monomeric β-amyloid (1-42 inhibited formation of β-amyloid fibrils, as confirmed by electron microscopy. This suggests that YB-1 interaction with β-amyloid prevents formation of filaments that are responsible for neurotoxicity and neuronal death. Our data are the first evidence for a potential therapeutic benefit of YB-1 for treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

  12. GLASS BOX

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Curtis, Laura

    2008-01-01

    The goals of this effort were to develop Glass Box capabilities to allow for the capturing of analyst activities and the associated data resources, track and log the results of automated processing...

  13. Reconstruction of implanted marker trajectories from cone-beam CT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Hyekyun; Poulsen, Per Rugaard; Keall, Paul J.; Cho, Seungryong; Cho, Byungchul

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) is a widely used imaging modality for image-guided radiotherapy. Most vendors provide CBCT systems that are mounted on a linac gantry. Thus, CBCT can be used to estimate the actual 3-dimensional (3D) position of moving respiratory targets in the thoracic/abdominal region using 2D projection images. The authors have developed a method for estimating the 3D trajectory of respiratory-induced target motion from CBCT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling. Methods: Because the superior–inferior (SI) motion of a target can be easily analyzed on projection images of a gantry-mounted CBCT system, the authors investigated the interdimensional correlation of the SI motion with left–right and anterior–posterior (AP) movements while the gantry is rotating. A simple linear model and a state-augmented model were implemented and applied to the interdimensional correlation analysis, and their performance was compared. The parameters of the interdimensional correlation models were determined by least-square estimation of the 2D error between the actual and estimated projected target position. The method was validated using 160 3D tumor trajectories from 46 thoracic/abdominal cancer patients obtained during CyberKnife treatment. The authors’ simulations assumed two application scenarios: (1) retrospective estimation for the purpose of moving tumor setup used just after volumetric matching with CBCT; and (2) on-the-fly estimation for the purpose of real-time target position estimation during gating or tracking delivery, either for full-rotation volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in 60 s or a stationary six-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a beam delivery time of 20 s. Results: For the retrospective CBCT simulations, the mean 3D root-mean-square error (RMSE) for all 4893 trajectory segments was 0.41 mm (simple linear model) and 0.35 mm (state-augmented model). In the on-the-fly simulations, prior

  14. Reconstruction of implanted marker trajectories from cone-beam CT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hyekyun [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea and Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 138-736 (Korea, Republic of); Poulsen, Per Rugaard [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Nørrebrogade 44, 8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Keall, Paul J. [Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Cho, Seungryong [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Byungchul, E-mail: cho.byungchul@gmail.com, E-mail: bcho@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) is a widely used imaging modality for image-guided radiotherapy. Most vendors provide CBCT systems that are mounted on a linac gantry. Thus, CBCT can be used to estimate the actual 3-dimensional (3D) position of moving respiratory targets in the thoracic/abdominal region using 2D projection images. The authors have developed a method for estimating the 3D trajectory of respiratory-induced target motion from CBCT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling. Methods: Because the superior–inferior (SI) motion of a target can be easily analyzed on projection images of a gantry-mounted CBCT system, the authors investigated the interdimensional correlation of the SI motion with left–right and anterior–posterior (AP) movements while the gantry is rotating. A simple linear model and a state-augmented model were implemented and applied to the interdimensional correlation analysis, and their performance was compared. The parameters of the interdimensional correlation models were determined by least-square estimation of the 2D error between the actual and estimated projected target position. The method was validated using 160 3D tumor trajectories from 46 thoracic/abdominal cancer patients obtained during CyberKnife treatment. The authors’ simulations assumed two application scenarios: (1) retrospective estimation for the purpose of moving tumor setup used just after volumetric matching with CBCT; and (2) on-the-fly estimation for the purpose of real-time target position estimation during gating or tracking delivery, either for full-rotation volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in 60 s or a stationary six-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a beam delivery time of 20 s. Results: For the retrospective CBCT simulations, the mean 3D root-mean-square error (RMSE) for all 4893 trajectory segments was 0.41 mm (simple linear model) and 0.35 mm (state-augmented model). In the on-the-fly simulations, prior

  15. Modeling the Nature of Grammar and Vocabulary Trajectories From Prekindergarten to Third Grade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Hui; Logan, Jessica A; Jia, Rongfang

    2018-04-17

    This study investigated the longitudinal development of 2 important contributors to reading comprehension, grammar, and vocabulary skills. The primary interest was to examine the trajectories of the 2 skill areas from preschool to 3rd grade. The study involved a longitudinal sample of 420 children from 4 sites. Language skills, including grammar and vocabulary, were assessed annually with multiple measures. Multivariate latent growth curve modeling was used to examine the developmental trajectories of grammar and vocabulary, to test the correlation between the 2 domains, and to investigate the effects of demographic predictors on language growth. Results showed that both grammar and vocabulary exhibited decelerating growth from preschool to Grade 2. In Grade 3, grammar growth further flattened, whereas vocabulary continued to grow stably. Growth of vocabulary and grammar were positively correlated. Demographic characteristics, such as child gender and family socioeconomic status, were found to predict the intercept but not the slope of the growth trajectories. Children's growth in grammar skills is differentiated in a number of important ways from their growth in vocabulary skills. Results of this study suggest the need to differentiate these dimensions of language when seeking to closely examine growth from preschool to primary grades.

  16. Analysis of MADS-Box Gene Family Reveals Conservation in Floral Organ ABCDE Model of Moso Bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanchao Cheng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Mini chromosome maintenance 1, agamous, deficiens, and serum response factor (MADS-box genes are transcription factors which play fundamental roles in flower development and regulation of floral organ identity. However, till date, identification and functions of MADS-box genes remain largely unclear in Phyllostachys edulis. In view of this, we performed a whole-genome survey and identified 34 MADS-box genes in P. edulis, and based on phylogeny, they were classified as MIKCC, MIKC∗, Mα, and Mβ. The detailed analysis about gene structure and motifs, phylogenetic classification, comparison of gene divergence and duplication are provided. Interestingly, expression patterns for most genes were found similar to those of Arabidopsis and rice, indicating that the well-established ABCDE model can be applied to P. edulis. Moreover, we overexpressed PheMADS15, an AP1-like gene, in Arabidopsis, and found that the transgenic plants have early flowering phenotype, suggesting that PheMADS15 might be a regulator of flowering transition in P. edulis. Taken together, this study provides not only insightful comprehension but also useful information for understanding the functions of MADS-box genes in P. edulis.

  17. Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan E Shave

    Full Text Available Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius, in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

  18. Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shave, Megan E; Lindell, Catherine A

    2017-01-01

    Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius), in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

  19. On convergence of trajectory attractors of the 3D Navier-Stokes-α model as α approaches 0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vishik, M I; Chepyzhov, V V; Titi, E S

    2007-01-01

    We study the relations between the long-time dynamics of the Navier-Stokes-α model and the exact 3D Navier-Stokes system. We prove that bounded sets of solutions of the Navier-Stokes-α model converge to the trajectory attractor A 0 of the 3D Navier-Stokes system as the time approaches infinity and α approaches zero. In particular, we show that the trajectory attractor A α of the Navier-Stokes-α model converges to the trajectory attractor A 0 of the 3D Navier-Stokes system as α→0+. We also construct the minimal limit A min (subset or equal A 0 ) of the trajectory attractor A α as α→0+ and prove that the set A min is connected and strictly invariant. Bibliography: 35 titles.

  20. Knee medial and lateral contact forces in a musculoskeletal model with subject-specific contact point trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeighami, A; Aissaoui, R; Dumas, R

    2018-03-01

    Contact point (CP) trajectory is a crucial parameter in estimating medial/lateral tibio-femoral contact forces from the musculoskeletal (MSK) models. The objective of the present study was to develop a method to incorporate the subject-specific CP trajectories into the MSK model. Ten healthy subjects performed 45 s treadmill gait trials. The subject-specific CP trajectories were constructed on the tibia and femur as a function of extension-flexion using low-dose bi-plane X-ray images during a quasi-static squat. At each extension-flexion position, the tibia and femur CPs were superimposed in the three directions on the medial side, and in the anterior-posterior and proximal-distal directions on the lateral side to form the five kinematic constraints of the knee joint. The Lagrange multipliers associated to these constraints directly yielded the medial/lateral contact forces. The results from the personalized CP trajectory model were compared against the linear CP trajectory and sphere-on-plane CP trajectory models which were adapted from the commonly used MSK models. Changing the CP trajectory had a remarkable impact on the knee kinematics and changed the medial and lateral contact forces by 1.03 BW and 0.65 BW respectively, in certain subjects. The direction and magnitude of the medial/lateral contact force were highly variable among the subjects and the medial-lateral shift of the CPs alone could not determine the increase/decrease pattern of the contact forces. The suggested kinematic constraints are adaptable to the CP trajectories derived from a variety of joint models and those experimentally measured from the 3D imaging techniques. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Akira.

    1993-01-01

    In a channel box of a BWR type reactor, protruding pads are disposed in axial position on the lateral side of a channel box opposing to a control rod and facing the outer side portion of the control rod in a reactor core loaded state. In the initial loading stage of fuel assemblies, channel fasteners and spacer pads are abutted against each other in the upper portion between the channel boxes sandwiching the control rod therebetween. Further, in the lower portion, a gap as a channel for the movement of the control rod is ensured by the support of fuel support metals. If the channel box is bent toward the control rod along with reactor operation, the pads are abutted against each other to always ensure the gap through which the control rod can move easily. Further, when the pads are brought into contact with each other, the bending deformation of the channel box is corrected by urging to each other. Thus, the control rod can always be moved smoothly to attain reactor safety operation. (N.H.)

  2. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H; Ebel, A; Franzkowiak, V; Hendricks, J; Lippert, E; Moellhoff, M [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1998-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  3. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  4. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

    2016-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

  5. Object-oriented process dose modeling for glove-box operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boerigter, S.T.; Fasel, J.H.; Kornreich, D.E.

    1999-01-01

    The Plutonium Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) supports several defense- and non-defense-related missions for the country by performing fabrication, surveillance, and research and development for materials and components that contain plutonium. Most operations occur in rooms with one or more arrays of glove boxes connected to each other via trolley glove boxes. Each room may contain glove boxes dedicated to several different operations or functions. Minimizing the effective dose equivalent (EDE) is a growing concern as a result of steadily allowable dose limits being imposed and a growing general awareness of safety in the workplace. In general, the authors discriminate three components of a worker's total EDE: the primary EDE, the secondary EDE, and background EDE. The immediate sources to which a worker is exposed provide the primary EDE. The secondary EDE results from operations and sources in the same vicinity or room as the worker. The background EDE results from all other sources of radiation, such as natural sources and sources outside of the room. A particular background source of interest is the nuclear materials vault. The distinction between sources inside and outside of a particular room is arbitrary with the underlying assumption that building walls and floors provide significant shielding to justify including sources in other rooms in the background category. An associated paper details the tool that they use to determine the primary and secondary EDEs for all processes of interest in a room containing glove boxes

  6. NOAA-MMS joint Langmuir circulation and oil spill trajectory models workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simecek-Beatty, D.; Lehr, W.

    2000-01-01

    An NOAA/HAZMAT workshop was held in October 1999 which provided an opportunity for 14 spill response officials to discuss the scientific theory of Langmuir Circulation (LC) and to determine ways that it affects oil spreading, dispersion and transport. The workshop helped identify potential modifications to existing oil spill trajectory models. LC is a result of the interaction between wind-driven surface currents and waves. This interaction causes vortices in the surface mixed layer of the water body. The vortices are aligned in the general direction of the wind. The surface water between the vortices either diverges or converges. For cleanup purposes and remote sensing it is necessary to incorporate LC into most oil and spill trajectory and behavior models. It was determined it should be possible to build simple models to predict the intensity of LC since current knowledge suggests that LC is forced by wind and waves. A prediction equation would be of tremendous use to oil spill response personnel. 39 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  7. Development of a Quadrotor Test Bed — Modelling, Parameter Identification, Controller Design and Trajectory Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Dong

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a quadrotor test bed is developed. The technical approach for this test bed is firstly proposed by utilizing a commercial quadrotor, a Vicon motion capture system and a ground station. Then, the mathematical model of the quadrotor is formulated considering aerodynamic effects, and the parameter identification approaches for this model are provided accordingly. Based on the developed model and identified parameters, a simulation environment that is consistent with the real system is developed. Subsequently, a flight control strategy and a trajectory generation method, both of which are conceptually and computationally lightweight, are developed and tested in the simulation environment. The developed algorithms are then directly transplanted to the real system, and the experimental results show that their responses in the real-time flights match well with those from the simulations. This indicates that the control algorithms developed for the quadrotor can be preliminarily verified and refined though simulations, and then directly implemented to the real system, which could significantly reduce the experimental risks and costs. Meanwhile, real-time experiments show that the developed flight controller can efficiently stabilize the quadrotor when external disturbances exist, and the trajectory generation approach can provide safe guidance for the quadrotor to fly smoothly through cluttered environments with obstacle rings. All of these features are valuable for real applications, thus demonstrating the feasibility of further development.

  8. Trajectory Planning and Optimized Adaptive Control for a Class of Wheeled Inverted Pendulum Vehicle Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chenguang; Li, Zhijun; Li, Jing

    2013-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate optimized adaptive control and trajectory generation for a class of wheeled inverted pendulum (WIP) models of vehicle systems. Aiming at shaping the controlled vehicle dynamics to be of minimized motion tracking errors as well as angular accelerations, we employ the linear quadratic regulation optimization technique to obtain an optimal reference model. Adaptive control has then been developed using variable structure method to ensure the reference model to be exactly matched in a finite-time horizon, even in the presence of various internal and external uncertainties. The minimized yaw and tilt angular accelerations help to enhance the vehicle rider's comfort. In addition, due to the underactuated mechanism of WIP, the vehicle forward velocity dynamics cannot be controlled separately from the pendulum tilt angle dynamics. Inspired by the control strategy of human drivers, who usually manipulate the tilt angle to control the forward velocity, we design a neural-network-based adaptive generator of implicit control trajectory (AGICT) of the tilt angle which indirectly "controls" the forward velocity such that it tracks the desired velocity asymptotically. The stability and optimal tracking performance have been rigorously established by theoretic analysis. In addition, simulation studies have been carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed AGICT and optimized adaptive controller.

  9. Modeling intensive longitudinal data with mixtures of nonparametric trajectories and time-varying effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, interindividual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semiparametric regression modeling, to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, Rafael A.; Tolson, Robert H.; Schoenenberger, Mark

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

  11. Variable trajectory model for regional assessments of air pollution from sulfur compounds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, D.C.; McNaughton, D.J.; Wendell, L.L.; Drake, R.L.

    1979-02-01

    This report describes a sulfur oxides atmospheric pollution model that calculates trajectories using single-layer historical wind data as well as chemical transformation and deposition following discrete contaminant air masses. Vertical diffusion under constraints is calculated, but all horizontal dispersion is a funcion of trajectory variation. The ground-level air concentrations and deposition are calculated in a rectangular area comprising the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Calculations for a 29-day assessment period in April 1974 are presented along with a limited verification. Results for the studies were calculated using a source inventory comprising 61% of the anthropogenic SO/sub 2/ emissions. Using current model parameterization levels, predicted concentration values are most sensitive to variations in dry deposition of SO/sub 2/, wet deposition of sulfate, and transformation of SO/sub 2/ to sulfate. Replacing the variable mixed-layer depth and variable stability features of the model with constant definitions of each results in increased ground-level concentration predicions for SO/sub 2/ and particularly for sulfate.

  12. Smoke plume trajectory from in-situ burning of crude oil: complex terrain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrattan, K.

    1997-01-01

    Numerical models have been used to predict the concentration of particulate matter or other combustion products downwind from a proposed in- situ burning of an oil spill. One of the models used was the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) model, ALOFT (A Large Outdoor Fire plume Trajectory), which is based on the conservation equations that govern the introduction of hot gases and particulate matter into the atmosphere. By using a model based on fundamental equations, it becomes a relatively simple matter to simulate smoke dispersal flow patterns, and to compute the solution to the equations of motion that govern the transport of pollutants in the lower atmosphere at a resolution that is comparable to that of the underlying terrain data. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  13. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  14. Grey-box Modelling of a Household Refrigeration Unit Using Time Series Data in Application to Demand Side Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sossan, Fabrizio; Lakshmanan, Venkatachalam; Costanzo, Giuseppe Tommaso

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the application of stochastic grey-box modeling to identify electrical power consumption-to-temperature models of a domestic freezer using experimental measurements. The models are formulated using stochastic differential equations (SDEs), estimated by maximum likelihood......) to shift the electricity consumption of a freezer in demand response experiments, thereby addressing the model selection problem also from the application point of view and showing in an experimental context the ability of MPC to exploit the freezer as a demand side resource (DSR)....... estimation (MLE), validated through the model residuals analysis and cross-validated to detect model over-fitting. A nonlinear model based on the reversed Carnot cycle is also presented and included in the modeling performance analysis. As an application of the models, we apply model predictive control (MPC...

  15. Analysis and modeling of delamination factor in drilling of woven kenaf fiber reinforced epoxy using Box Behnken experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaily, M.; Che Hassan, C. H.; Jaharah, A. G.; Afifah, M. A.; Nor Khairusshima, M. K.

    2018-01-01

    In this research study, it presents a comprehensive mathematical model for correlating the influences of drilling parameters on the delamination factor during the drilling of woven kenaf fiber reinforced epoxy composite laminates using the Box Behnken experimental design. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of drilling parameters such as cutting speed, feed rate and drill sizes on the delamination produced when drilling woven kenaf reinforced epoxy composite using the non-coated HSS drill bits. The damage generated on the woven kenaf reinforced epoxy composite laminates were observed both at the entrance and exit surface during the drilling operation. The experiments were conducted according to the Box Behnken experimental designs.

  16. Learning probabilistic models of hydrogen bond stability from molecular dynamics simulation trajectories

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-02-15

    Background: Hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) play a key role in both the formation and stabilization of protein structures. They form and break while a protein deforms, for instance during the transition from a non-functional to a functional state. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor.Methods: This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H-bond stability from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories of various proteins. The training data contains 32 input attributes (predictors) that describe an H-bond and its local environment in a conformation c and the output attribute is the probability that the H-bond will be present in an arbitrary conformation of this protein achievable from c within a time duration ?. We model dependence of the output variable on the predictors by a regression tree.Results: Several models are built using 6 MD simulation trajectories containing over 4000 distinct H-bonds (millions of occurrences). Experimental results demonstrate that such models can predict H-bond stability quite well. They perform roughly 20% better than models based on H-bond energy alone. In addition, they can accurately identify a large fraction of the least stable H-bonds in a conformation. In most tests, about 80% of the 10% H-bonds predicted as the least stable are actually among the 10% truly least stable. The important attributes identified during the tree construction are consistent with previous findings.Conclusions: We use inductive learning methods to build protein-independent probabilistic models to study H-bond stability, and demonstrate that the models perform better than H-bond energy alone. 2011 Chikalov et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  17. Glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morita, Atsushi

    1990-01-01

    Wire rope earthquake proof supports having sufficient vibration transmitting and attenuating property are disposed between a fixed floor and the bottom of a glove box in order to improve earthquake proofness of the glove box. The vertical weight of the glove box is supported by support legs slidable on the surface of the fixed floor. The wire rope earthquake-proof supports when undergoing a load, cause stretching and rolling against the external force such as earthquakes, and provide flexible spring support and cause a great damping due to friction with strands. Further, the vertical weight is always supported by the support legs and, when a horizontal weight is applied, the glove box slides on the fixed floor freely with slidable members. In this way, stress concentration generated at joint portions of columns and beams can be moderated greatly and earthquake proofness can be improved. Further, quality control and maintenance for the device is almost unnecessary owing to excellent fatigue-resistant characteristics of the wire rope earthquake proof supports. (N.H.)

  18. Trajectory modeling of gestational weight: A functional principal component analysis approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglu Che

    Full Text Available Suboptimal gestational weight gain (GWG, which is linked to increased risk of adverse outcomes for a pregnant woman and her infant, is prevalent. In the study of a large cohort of Canadian pregnant women, our goals are to estimate the individual weight growth trajectory using sparsely collected bodyweight data, and to identify the factors affecting the weight change during pregnancy, such as prepregnancy body mass index (BMI, dietary intakes and physical activity. The first goal was achieved through functional principal component analysis (FPCA by conditional expectation. For the second goal, we used linear regression with the total weight gain as the response variable. The trajectory modeling through FPCA had a significantly smaller root mean square error (RMSE and improved adaptability than the classic nonlinear mixed-effect models, demonstrating a novel tool that can be used to facilitate real time monitoring and interventions of GWG. Our regression analysis showed that prepregnancy BMI had a high predictive value for the weight changes during pregnancy, which agrees with the published weight gain guideline.

  19. ALOFT-PC a smoke plume trajectory model for personal computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, W.D.; McGrattan, K.B.; Mullin, J.V.

    1996-01-01

    A computer model, named ALOFT-PC, was developed for use during in-situ burning of oil spills to predict smoke plume trajectory. The downwind distribution of smoke particulate is a complex function of fire parameters, meteorological conditions, and topographic features. Experimental burns have shown that the downwind distribution of smoke is not Gaussian and simple smoke plume models do not capture the observed plume features. ALOFT-PC consists of the Navier-Stokes equations using an eddy viscosity over a uniform grid that spans the smoke plume and its surroundings. The model inputs are wind speed and variability, atmospheric temperature profile, and fire parameters and the output is the average of the plume. 7 refs., 3 tabs

  20. Introducing the fit-criteria assessment plot - A visualisation tool to assist class enumeration in group-based trajectory modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijn, Sven L; Weijenberg, Matty P; Lemmens, Paul; van den Brandt, Piet A; Lima Passos, Valéria

    2017-10-01

    Background and objective Group-based trajectory modelling is a model-based clustering technique applied for the identification of latent patterns of temporal changes. Despite its manifold applications in clinical and health sciences, potential problems of the model selection procedure are often overlooked. The choice of the number of latent trajectories (class-enumeration), for instance, is to a large degree based on statistical criteria that are not fail-safe. Moreover, the process as a whole is not transparent. To facilitate class enumeration, we introduce a graphical summary display of several fit and model adequacy criteria, the fit-criteria assessment plot. Methods An R-code that accepts universal data input is presented. The programme condenses relevant group-based trajectory modelling output information of model fit indices in automated graphical displays. Examples based on real and simulated data are provided to illustrate, assess and validate fit-criteria assessment plot's utility. Results Fit-criteria assessment plot provides an overview of fit criteria on a single page, placing users in an informed position to make a decision. Fit-criteria assessment plot does not automatically select the most appropriate model but eases the model assessment procedure. Conclusions Fit-criteria assessment plot is an exploratory, visualisation tool that can be employed to assist decisions in the initial and decisive phase of group-based trajectory modelling analysis. Considering group-based trajectory modelling's widespread resonance in medical and epidemiological sciences, a more comprehensive, easily interpretable and transparent display of the iterative process of class enumeration may foster group-based trajectory modelling's adequate use.

  1. Impacts of bromine and iodine chemistry on tropospheric OH and HO2: comparing observations with box and global model perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Daniel; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J.; Vaughan, Stewart; Ingham, Trevor; Whalley, Lisa K.; Edwards, Peter M.; Read, Katie A.; Lee, James D.; Moller, Sarah J.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Heard, Dwayne E.

    2018-03-01

    The chemistry of the halogen species bromine and iodine has a range of impacts on tropospheric composition, and can affect oxidising capacity in a number of ways. However, recent studies disagree on the overall sign of the impacts of halogens on the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. We present simulations of OH and HO2 radicals for comparison with observations made in the remote tropical ocean boundary layer during the Seasonal Oxidant Study at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in 2009. We use both a constrained box model, using detailed chemistry derived from the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), and the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model GEOS-Chem. Both model approaches reproduce the diurnal trends in OH and HO2. Absolute observed concentrations are well reproduced by the box model but are overpredicted by the global model, potentially owing to incomplete consideration of oceanic sourced radical sinks. The two models, however, differ in the impacts of halogen chemistry. In the box model, halogen chemistry acts to increase OH concentrations (by 9.8 % at midday at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory), while the global model exhibits a small increase in OH at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (by 0.6 % at midday) but overall shows a decrease in the global annual mass-weighted mean OH of 4.5 %. These differences reflect the variety of timescales through which the halogens impact the chemical system. On short timescales, photolysis of HOBr and HOI, produced by reactions of HO2 with BrO and IO, respectively, increases the OH concentration. On longer timescales, halogen-catalysed ozone destruction cycles lead to lower primary production of OH radicals through ozone photolysis, and thus to lower OH concentrations. The global model includes more of the longer timescale responses than the constrained box model, and overall the global impact of the longer timescale response (reduced primary production due to lower O3 concentrations

  2. Material and Thickness Grading for Aeroelastic Tailoring of the Common Research Model Wing Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Jutte, Christine V.

    2014-01-01

    This work quantifies the potential aeroelastic benefits of tailoring a full-scale wing box structure using tailored thickness distributions, material distributions, or both simultaneously. These tailoring schemes are considered for the wing skins, the spars, and the ribs. Material grading utilizes a spatially-continuous blend of two metals: Al and Al+SiC. Thicknesses and material fraction variables are specified at the 4 corners of the wing box, and a bilinear interpolation is used to compute these parameters for the interior of the planform. Pareto fronts detailing the conflict between static aeroelastic stresses and dynamic flutter boundaries are computed with a genetic algorithm. In some cases, a true material grading is found to be superior to a single-material structure.

  3. Multi-Body Ski Jumper Model with Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Muscle Control for Trajectory Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Piprek

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to model a ski jumper as a multi-body system for an optimal control application. The modeling is based on the constrained Newton-Euler-Equations. Within this paper the complete multi-body modeling methodology as well as the musculoskeletal modeling is considered. For the musculoskeletal modeling and its incorporation in the optimization model, we choose a nonlinear dynamic inversion control approach. This approach uses the muscle models as nonlinear reference models and links them to the ski jumper movement by a control law. This strategy yields a linearized input-output behavior, which makes the optimal control problem easier to solve. The resulting model of the ski jumper can then be used for trajectory optimization whose results are compared to literature jumps. Ultimately, this enables the jumper to get a very detailed feedback of the flight. To achieve the maximal jump length, exact positioning of his body with respect to the air can be displayed.

  4. CIM-EARTH: Community integrated model of economic and resource trajectories for humankind.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, J.; Foster, I.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E.; Munson, T.; Univ. of Chicago; Hoover Inst.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a global problem with local climatic and economic impacts. Mitigation policies can be applied on large geographic scales, such as a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S., on medium geographic scales, such as the NOx program for the northeastern U.S., or on smaller scales, such as statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes. To enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of mitigation policies, we are developing dynamic general equilibrium models capable of incorporating important climate impacts. This report describes the economic framework we have developed and the current Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind (CIM-EARTH) instance.

  5. Learning Probabilistic Models of Hydrogen Bond Stability from Molecular Dynamics Simulation Trajectories

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-04-02

    Hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) play a key role in both the formation and stabilization of protein structures. H-bonds involving atoms from residues that are close to each other in the main-chain sequence stabilize secondary structure elements. H-bonds between atoms from distant residues stabilize a protein’s tertiary structure. However, H-bonds greatly vary in stability. They form and break while a protein deforms. For instance, the transition of a protein from a nonfunctional to a functional state may require some H-bonds to break and others to form. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor. Other local interactions may reinforce (or weaken) an H-bond. This paper describes inductive learning methods to train a protein-independent probabilistic model of H-bond stability from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories. The training data describes H-bond occurrences at successive times along these trajectories by the values of attributes called predictors. A trained model is constructed in the form of a regression tree in which each non-leaf node is a Boolean test (split) on a predictor. Each occurrence of an H-bond maps to a path in this tree from the root to a leaf node. Its predicted stability is associated with the leaf node. Experimental results demonstrate that such models can predict H-bond stability quite well. In particular, their performance is roughly 20% better than that of models based on H-bond energy alone. In addition, they can accurately identify a large fraction of the least stable H-bonds in a given conformation. The paper discusses several extensions that may yield further improvements.

  6. Glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisert, G.A.

    1979-01-01

    An arrangement for effecting access for performing work within a glove box comprises an elongate arm-length impermeable flexible sleeve, a fitting having an aperture therethrough, adapted to be secured in sealing relation in a port, in a wall of the glove box, the fitting including an outwardly extending lip having at least one continuous groove extending around its outer periphery, one end of the sleeve extending through the aperture in fitting and being folded back against the outer periphery of the lip, a resilient fastening ring securing the sleeve in sealing engagement in the groove, clamping means securing the sleeves to the lip and a glove secured in sealing relation via a bushing to the other end of the sleeve. (author)

  7. MADS-box gene evolution - structure and transcription patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Bo; Pedersen, Louise Buchholt; Skipper, Martin

    2002-01-01

    Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs......Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs...

  8. An investigation of bimodal jet trajectory in flow through scaled models of the human vocal tract

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erath, Byron D.; Plesniak, Michael W. [Purdue University, School of Mechanical Engineering, Indiana (United States)

    2006-05-15

    Pulsatile two-dimensional flow through static divergent models of the human vocal folds is investigated. Although the motivation for this study is speech production, the results are generally applicable to a variety of engineering flows involving pulsatile flow through diffusers. Model glottal divergence angles of 10, 20, and 40 represent various geometries encountered in one phonation cycle. Frequency and amplitude of the flow oscillations are scaled with physiological Reynolds and Strouhal numbers typical of human phonation. Glottal velocity trajectories are measured along the anterior-posterior midline by using phase-averaged particle image velocimetry to acquire 1,000 realizations at ten discrete instances in the phonation cycle. The angular deflection of the glottal jet from the streamwise direction (symmetric configuration) is quantified for each realization. A bimodal flow configuration is observed for divergence angles of 10 and 20 , with the flow eventually skewing and attaching to the vocal fold walls. The deflection of the flow toward the vocal fold walls occurs when the forcing function reaches maximum velocity and zero acceleration. For a divergence angle of 40 , the flow never attaches to the vocal fold walls; however, there is increased variability in the glottal jet after the forcing function reaches maximum velocity and zero acceleration. The variation in the jet trajectory as a function of divergence angle is explained by performance maps of diffuser flow regimes. The smaller angle cases are in the unstable transitory stall regime while the 40 divergent case is in the fully developed two-dimensional stall regime. Very small geometric variations in model size and surface finish significantly affect the flow behavior. The bimodal, or flip-flopping, glottal jet behavior is expected to influence the dipole contribution to sound production. (orig.)

  9. Mathematical modelling for trajectories of magnetic nanoparticles in a blood vessel under magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Shashi; Katiyar, V.K.; Singh, Uaday

    2015-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed to describe the trajectories of a cluster of magnetic nanoparticles in a blood vessel for the application of magnetic drug targeting (MDT). The magnetic nanoparticles are injected into a blood vessel upstream from a malignant tissue and are captured at the tumour site with help of an applied magnetic field. The applied field is produced by a rare earth cylindrical magnet positioned outside the body. All forces expected to significantly affect the transport of nanoparticles were incorporated, including magnetization force, drag force and buoyancy force. The results show that particles are slow down and captured under the influence of magnetic force, which is responsible to attract the magnetic particles towards the magnet. It is optimized that all particles are captured either before or at the centre of the magnet (z≤0) when blood vessel is very close proximity to the magnet (d=2.5 cm). However, as the distance between blood vessel and magnet (d) increases (above 4.5 cm), the magnetic nanoparticles particles become free and they flow away down the blood vessel. Further, the present model results are validated by the simulations performed using the finite element based COMSOL software. - Highlights: • A mathematical model is developed to describe the trajectories of magnetic nanoparticles. • The dominant magnetic, drag and buoyancy forces are considered. • All particles are captured when distance between blood vessel and magnet (d) is up to 4.5 cm. • Further increase in d value (above 4.5 cm) results the free movement of magnetic particles

  10. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  11. Development of three-dimensional trajectory model for detecting source region of the radioactive materials released into the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Kyung Suk; Park, Ki Hyun; Min, Byung Il; Kim, Sora; Yang, Byung Mo [Nuclear Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    It is necessary to consider the overall countermeasure for analysis of nuclear activities according to the increase of the nuclear facilities like nuclear power and reprocessing plants in the neighboring countries including China, Taiwan, North Korea, Japan and South Korea. South Korea and comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty organization (CTBTO) are now operating the monitoring instruments to detect radionuclides released into the air. It is important to estimate the origin of radionuclides measured using the detection technology as well as the monitoring analysis in aspects of investigation and security of the nuclear activities in neighboring countries. A three-dimensional forward/backward trajectory model has been developed to estimate the origin of radionuclides for a covert nuclear activity. The developed trajectory model was composed of forward and backward modules to track the particle positions using finite difference method. A three-dimensional trajectory model was validated using the measured data at Chernobyl accident. The calculated results showed a good agreement by using the high concentration measurements and the locations where was near a release point. The three-dimensional trajectory model had some uncertainty according to the release time, release height and time interval of the trajectory at each release points. An atmospheric dispersion model called long-range accident dose assessment system (LADAS), based on the fields of regards (FOR) technique, was applied to reduce the uncertainties of the trajectory model and to improve the detective technology for estimating the radioisotopes emission area. The detective technology developed in this study can evaluate in release area and origin for covert nuclear activities based on measured radioisotopes at monitoring stations, and it might play critical tool to improve the ability of the nuclear safety field.

  12. Boxing clever

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanbury, Kate

    1999-09-10

    The outages caused by storms bringing down trees on power transmission lines on Boxing Day 1998 in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England forced ScottishPower to modify its pylon policy. The results of the analysis of pylons requiring work by the Rural Care Team at ScottishPower are summarised, and the identification of the problems caused by the Sitk spruce is reported. The selection of the relocation and clearance remediation option, the policy of replacing one tree with two, the approach to landowners, and the need to consider environmental concerns during the planning of networks are discussed. (UK)

  13. The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

    2012-12-01

    A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

  14. OpenDrift - an open source framework for ocean trajectory modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Breivik, Øyvind; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    We will present a new, open source tool for modeling the trajectories and fate of particles or substances (Lagrangian Elements) drifting in the ocean, or even in the atmosphere. The software is named OpenDrift, and has been developed at Norwegian Meteorological Institute in cooperation with Institute of Marine Research. OpenDrift is a generic framework written in Python, and is openly available at https://github.com/knutfrode/opendrift/. The framework is modular with respect to three aspects: (1) obtaining input data, (2) the transport/morphological processes, and (3) exporting of results to file. Modularity is achieved through well defined interfaces between components, and use of a consistent vocabulary (CF conventions) for naming of variables. Modular input implies that it is not necessary to preprocess input data (e.g. currents, wind and waves from Eulerian models) to a particular file format. Instead "reader modules" can be written/used to obtain data directly from any original source, including files or through web based protocols (e.g. OPeNDAP/Thredds). Modularity of processes implies that a model developer may focus on the geophysical processes relevant for the application of interest, without needing to consider technical tasks such as reading, reprojecting, and colocating input data, rotation and scaling of vectors and model output. We will show a few example applications of using OpenDrift for predicting drifters, oil spills, and search and rescue objects.

  15. Learning from Your Network of Friends: A Trajectory Representation Learning Model Based on Online Social Ties

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed

    2017-02-07

    Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs) capture individuals whereabouts for a large portion of the population. To utilize this data for user (location)-similarity based tasks, one must map the raw data into a low-dimensional uniform feature space. However, due to the nature of LBSNs, many users have sparse and incomplete check-ins. In this work, we propose to overcome this issue by leveraging the network of friends, when learning the new feature space. We first analyze the impact of friends on individuals\\'s mobility, and show that individuals trajectories are correlated with thoseof their friends and friends of friends (2-hop friends) in an online setting. Based on our observation, we propose a mixed-membership model that infers global mobility patterns from users\\' check-ins and their network of friends, without impairing the model\\'s complexity. Our proposed model infers global patterns and learns new representations for both usersand locations simultaneously. We evaluate the inferred patterns and compare the quality of the new user representation against baseline methods on a social link prediction problem.

  16. Personality and trajectories of posttraumatic psychopathology: A latent change modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Susan; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Forbes, David

    2016-08-01

    Survivors of traumatic events may develop a range of psychopathology, across the internalizing and externalizing dimensions of disorder and associated personality traits. However, research into personality-based internalizing and externalizing trauma responses has been limited to cross-sectional investigations of PTSD comorbidity. Personality typologies may present an opportunity to identify and selectively intervene with survivors at risk of posttraumatic disorder. Therefore this study examined whether personality prospectively influences the trajectory of disorder in a broader trauma-exposed sample. During hospitalization for a physical injury, 323 Australian adults completed the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire-Brief Form and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, with the latter readministered 3 and 12 months later. Latent profile analysis conducted on baseline personality scores identified subgroups of participants, while latent change modelling examined differences in disorder trajectories. Three classes (internalizing, externalizing, and normal personality) were identified. The internalizing class showed a high risk of developing all disorders. Unexpectedly, however, the normal personality class was not always at lowest risk of disorder. Rather, the externalizing class, while more likely than the normal personality class to develop substance use disorders, were less likely to develop PTSD and depression. Results suggest that personality is an important mechanism in influencing the development and form of psychopathology after trauma, with internalizing and externalizing subtypes identifiable in the early aftermath of injury. These findings suggest that early intervention using a personality-based transdiagnostic approach may be an effective method of predicting and ultimately preventing much of the burden of posttraumatic disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. How to connect time-lapse recorded trajectories of motile microorganisms with dynamical models in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Nyvold; Li, Liang; Gradinaru, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    We provide a tool for data-driven modeling of motility, data being time-lapse recorded trajectories. Several mathematical properties of a model to be found can be gleaned from appropriate model-independent experimental statistics, if one understands how such statistics are distorted by the finite...... of these effects that are valid for any reasonable model for persistent random motion. Our findings are illustrated with experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations....

  18. A Time-Regularized, Multiple Gravity-Assist Low-Thrust, Bounded-Impulse Model for Trajectory Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Donald H.; Englander, Jacob A.; Conway, Bruce A.

    2017-01-01

    The multiple gravity assist low-thrust (MGALT) trajectory model combines the medium-fidelity Sims-Flanagan bounded-impulse transcription with a patched-conics flyby model and is an important tool for preliminary trajectory design. While this model features fast state propagation via Keplers equation and provides a pleasingly accurate estimation of the total mass budget for the eventual flight suitable integrated trajectory it does suffer from one major drawback, namely its temporal spacing of the control nodes. We introduce a variant of the MGALT transcription that utilizes the generalized anomaly from the universal formulation of Keplers equation as a decision variable in addition to the trajectory phase propagation time. This results in two improvements over the traditional model. The first is that the maneuver locations are equally spaced in generalized anomaly about the orbit rather than time. The second is that the Kepler propagator now has the generalized anomaly as its independent variable instead of time and thus becomes an iteration-free propagation method. The new algorithm is outlined, including the impact that this has on the computation of Jacobian entries for numerical optimization, and a motivating application problem is presented that illustrates the improvements that this model has over the traditional MGALT transcription.

  19. A model of chemical etching of olivine in the vicinity of the trajectory of a swift heavy ion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorbunov, S.A., E-mail: s.a.gorbunov@mail.ru [Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninskij pr. 53, 119991 Moscow (Russian Federation); Rymzhanov, R.A. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Starkov, N.I. [Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninskij pr. 53, 119991 Moscow (Russian Federation); Volkov, A.E. [Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninskij pr. 53, 119991 Moscow (Russian Federation); Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); National Research Centre ‘Kurchatov Institute’, Kurchatov Sq. 1, 123182 Moscow (Russian Federation); Malakhov, A.I. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2015-12-15

    Searching of superheavy elements, the charge spectra of heavy nuclei in Galactic Cosmic Rays was investigated within the OLYMPIA experiment using the database of etched ion tracks in meteorite olivine. Etching results in the formation of hollow syringe-like channels with diameters of 1–10 μm along the trajectories of these swift heavy ions (SHI). According to the activated complex theory, the local chemical activity is determined by an increase of the specific Gibbs energy of the lattice stimulated by structure transformations, long-range elastic fields, and interatomic bonds breaking generated in the vicinity of the ion trajectory. To determine the dependencies of the Gibbs free energy increase in SHI tracks in olivine on the mass, energy and charge of a projectile, we apply a multiscale model of excitation and relaxation of materials in the vicinity of the SHI trajectory (SHI tracks). Effect of spreading of fast electrons from the ion trajectory causing neutralization of metallic atoms resulting in an increase of the chemical activity of olivine at long distances from the ion trajectory (up to 5 μm) is estimated and discussed.

  20. Trajectories of adolescent substance use development and the influence of healthy leisure: A growth mixture modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weybright, Elizabeth H; Caldwell, Linda L; Ram, Nilam; Smith, Edward A; Wegner, Lisa

    2016-06-01

    Considerable heterogeneity exists in adolescent substance use development. To most effectively prevent use, distinct trajectories of use must be identified as well as differential associations with predictors of use, such as leisure experience. The current study used a person-centered approach to identify distinct substance use trajectories and how leisure is associated with trajectory classes. Data came from a larger efficacy trial of 2.249 South African high school students who reported substance use at any time across 8 waves. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify developmental trajectories of substance use and the influence of healthy leisure. Results identified three increasing and one stable substance use trajectory and subjective healthy leisure served to protect against use. This study is the first of its kind to focus on a sample of South African adolescents and serves to develop a richer understanding of substance use development and the role of healthy leisure. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Learning from Your Network of Friends: A Trajectory Representation Learning Model Based on Online Social Ties

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2017-01-01

    Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs) capture individuals whereabouts for a large portion of the population. To utilize this data for user (location)-similarity based tasks, one must map the raw data into a low-dimensional uniform feature space. However, due to the nature of LBSNs, many users have sparse and incomplete check-ins. In this work, we propose to overcome this issue by leveraging the network of friends, when learning the new feature space. We first analyze the impact of friends on individuals's mobility, and show that individuals trajectories are correlated with thoseof their friends and friends of friends (2-hop friends) in an online setting. Based on our observation, we propose a mixed-membership model that infers global mobility patterns from users' check-ins and their network of friends, without impairing the model's complexity. Our proposed model infers global patterns and learns new representations for both usersand locations simultaneously. We evaluate the inferred patterns and compare the quality of the new user representation against baseline methods on a social link prediction problem.

  2. Longitudinal Modeling of Depressive Trajectories Among HIV-Infected Men Using Cocaine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukerji, Shibani; Haghighat, Roxanna; Misra, Vikas; Lorenz, David R; Holman, Alex; Dutta, Anupriya; Gabuzda, Dana

    2017-07-01

    Cocaine use is prevalent among HIV-infected individuals. While cross-sectional studies suggest that cocaine users may be at increased risk for depression, long-term effects of cocaine on depressive symptoms remain unclear. This is a longitudinal study of 341 HIV-infected and uninfected men (135 cocaine users and 206 controls) ages 30-60 enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study during 1996-2009. The median baseline age was 41; 73% were African-American. In mixed-effects models over a median of 4.8 years of observation, cocaine use was associated with higher depressive symptoms independent of age, education level, and smoking (n = 288; p = 0.02); HIV infection modified this association (p = 0.03). Latent class mixed models were used to empirically identify distinct depressive trajectories (n = 160). In adjusted models, cocaine use was associated with threefold increased odds of membership in the class with persistent high depressive symptoms (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38-6.69) and eightfold increased odds (95% CI (2.73-25.83) when tested among HIV-infected subjects only. Cocaine use is a risk factor for chronic depressive symptoms, particularly among HIV-infected men, highlighting the importance of integrating mental health and substance use treatments to address barriers to well-being and successful HIV-care.

  3. Trajectories of Heroin Addiction: Growth Mixture Modeling Results Based on a 33-Year Follow-Up Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Huang, David; Chou, Chih-Ping; Anglin, M. Douglas

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates trajectories of heroin use and subsequent consequences in a sample of 471 male heroin addicts who were admitted to the California Civil Addict Program in 1964-1965 and followed over 33 years. Applying a two-part growth mixture modeling strategy to heroin use level during the first 16 years of the addiction careers since…

  4. A population-feedback control based algorithm for well trajectory optimization using proxy model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Kasravi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Wellbore instability is one of the concerns in the field of drilling engineering. This phenomenon is affected by several factors such as azimuth, inclination angle, in-situ stress, mud weight, and rock strength parameters. Among these factors, azimuth, inclination angle, and mud weight are controllable. The objective of this paper is to introduce a new procedure based on elastoplastic theory in wellbore stability solution to determine the optimum well trajectory and global minimum mud pressure required (GMMPR. Genetic algorithm (GA was applied as a main optimization engine that employs proportional feedback controller to obtain the minimum mud pressure required (MMPR. The feedback function repeatedly calculated and updated the error between the simulated and set point of normalized yielded zone area (NYZA. To reduce computation expenses, an artificial neural network (ANN was used as a proxy (surrogate model to approximate the behavior of the actual wellbore model. The methodology was applied to a directional well in southwestern Iranian oilfield. The results demonstrated that the error between the predicted GMMPR and practical safe mud pressure was 4% for elastoplastic method, and 22% for conventional elastic solution.

  5. Prediction of human gait trajectories during the SSP using a neuromusculoskeletal modeling: A challenge for parametric optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyed, Mohammadali Rahmati; Mostafa, Rostami; Borhan, Beigzadeh

    2018-04-27

    The parametric optimization techniques have been widely employed to predict human gait trajectories; however, their applications to reveal the other aspects of gait are questionable. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not the gait prediction model is able to justify the movement trajectories for the higher average velocities. A planar, seven-segment model with sixteen muscle groups was used to represent human neuro-musculoskeletal dynamics. At first, the joint angles, ground reaction forces (GRFs) and muscle activations were predicted and validated for normal average velocity (1.55 m/s) in the single support phase (SSP) by minimizing energy expenditure, which is subject to the non-linear constraints of the gait. The unconstrained system dynamics of extended inverse dynamics (USDEID) approach was used to estimate muscle activations. Then by scaling time and applying the same procedure, the movement trajectories were predicted for higher average velocities (from 2.07 m/s to 4.07 m/s) and compared to the pattern of movement with fast walking speed. The comparison indicated a high level of compatibility between the experimental and predicted results, except for the vertical position of the center of gravity (COG). It was concluded that the gait prediction model can be effectively used to predict gait trajectories for higher average velocities.

  6. Constructing seasonal LAI trajectory by data-model fusion for global evergreen needle-leaf forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, R.; Chen, J.; Mo, G.

    2010-12-01

    For decades, advancements in optical remote sensors made it possible to produce maps of a biophysical parameter--the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which is critically necessary in regional and global modeling of exchanges of carbon, water, energy and other substances, across large areas in a fast way. Quite a few global LAI products have been generated since 2000, e.g. GLOBCARBON (Deng et al., 2006), MODIS Collection 5 (Shabanov et al., 2007), CYCLOPES (Baret et al., 2007), etc. Albeit these progresses, the basic physics behind the technology restrains it from accurate estimation of LAI in winter, especially for northern high-latitude evergreen needle-leaf forests. Underestimation of winter LAI in these regions has been reported in literature (Yang et al., 2000; Cohen et al., 2003; Tian et al., 2004; Weiss et al., 2007; Pisek et al., 2007), and the distortion is usually attributed to the variations of canopy reflectance caused by understory change (Weiss et al., 2007) as well as by the presence of ice and snow on leaves and ground (Cohen, 2003; Tian et al., 2004). Seasonal changes in leaf pigments can also be another reason for low LAI retrieved in winter. Low conifer LAI values in winter retrieved from remote sensing make them unusable for surface energy budget calculations. To avoid these drawbacks of remote sensing approaches, we attempt to reconstruct the seasonal LAI trajectory through model-data fusion. A 1-degree LAI map of global evergreen needle-leaf forests at 10-day interval is produced based on the carbon allocation principle in trees. With net primary productivity (NPP) calculated by the Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) (Chen et al., 1999), carbon allocated to needles is quantitatively evaluated and then can be further transformed into LAI using the specific leaf area (SLA). A leaf-fall scheme is developed to mimic the carbon loss caused by falling needles throughout the year. The seasonally maximum LAI from remote sensing data for each pixel

  7. NewsPaperBox - Online News Space: a visual model for representing the social space of a website

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selçuk Artut

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available NewsPaperBox * propounds an alternative visual model utilizing the treemap algorithm to represent the collective use of a website that evolves in response to user interaction. While the technology currently exists to track various user behaviors such as number of clicks, duration of stay on a given web site, these statistics are not yet employed to influence the visual representation of that site's design in real time. In that sense, this project propounds an alternative modeling of a representational outlook of a website that is developed by collaborations and competitions of its global users. This paper proposes the experience of cyberspace as a generative process driven by its effective user participation.

  8. Vectorization of a classical trajectory code on a floating point systems, Inc. Model 164 attached processor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Wayne A; Wagner, Albert F

    1986-04-01

    A triatomic classical trajectory code has been modified by extensive vectorization of the algorithms to achieve much improved performance on an FPS 164 attached processor. Extensive timings on both the FPS 164 and a VAX 11/780 with floating point accelerator are presented as a function of the number of trajectories simultaneously run. The timing tests involve a potential energy surface of the LEPS variety and trajectories with 1000 time steps. The results indicate that vectorization results in timing improvements on both the VAX and the FPS. For larger numbers of trajectories run simultaneously, up to a factor of 25 improvement in speed occurs between VAX and FPS vectorized code. Copyright © 1986 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  9. Box-Behnken design based statistical modeling for ultrasound-assisted extraction of corn silk polysaccharide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Maran, J; Manikandan, S; Thirugnanasambandham, K; Vigna Nivetha, C; Dinesh, R

    2013-01-30

    In this study, ultrasound assisted extraction (UAE) conditions on the yield of polysaccharide from corn silk were studied using three factors, three level Box-Behnken response surface design. Process parameters, which affect the efficiency of UAE such as extraction temperature (40-60 °C), time (10-30 min) and solid-liquid ratio (1:10-1:30 g/ml) were investigated. The results showed that, the extraction conditions have significant effects on extraction yield of polysaccharide. The obtained experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial equation using multiple regression analysis with high coefficient of determination value (R(2)) of 0.994. An optimization study using Derringer's desired function methodology was performed and the optimal conditions based on both individual and combinations of all independent variables (extraction temperature of 56 °C, time of 17 min and solid-liquid ratio of 1:20 g/ml) were determined with maximum polysaccharide yield of 6.06%, which was confirmed through validation experiments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Inference of median difference based on the Box-Cox model in randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruo, K; Isogawa, N; Gosho, M

    2015-05-10

    In randomized clinical trials, many medical and biological measurements are not normally distributed and are often skewed. The Box-Cox transformation is a powerful procedure for comparing two treatment groups for skewed continuous variables in terms of a statistical test. However, it is difficult to directly estimate and interpret the location difference between the two groups on the original scale of the measurement. We propose a helpful method that infers the difference of the treatment effect on the original scale in a more easily interpretable form. We also provide statistical analysis packages that consistently include an estimate of the treatment effect, covariance adjustments, standard errors, and statistical hypothesis tests. The simulation study that focuses on randomized parallel group clinical trials with two treatment groups indicates that the performance of the proposed method is equivalent to or better than that of the existing non-parametric approaches in terms of the type-I error rate and power. We illustrate our method with cluster of differentiation 4 data in an acquired immune deficiency syndrome clinical trial. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Master-slave control with trajectory planning and Bouc-Wen model for tracking control of piezo-driven stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaojun; Liu, Changli; Chen, Lei

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a redundant Piezo-driven stage having 3RRR compliant mechanism is introduced, we propose the master-slave control with trajectory planning (MSCTP) strategy and Bouc-Wen model to improve its micro-motion tracking performance. The advantage of the proposed controller lies in that its implementation only requires a simple control strategy without the complexity of modeling to avoid the master PEA's tracking error. The dynamic model of slave PEA system with Bouc-Wen hysteresis is established and identified via particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach. The Piezo-driven stage with operating period T=1s and 2s is implemented to track a prescribed circle. The simulation results show that MSCTP with Bouc-Wen model reduces the trajectory tracking errors to the range of the accuracy of our available measurement.

  12. The effect of spin in swing bowling in cricket: model trajectories for spin alone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Garry; Robinson, Ian

    2015-02-01

    In ‘swing’ bowling, as employed by fast and fast-medium bowlers in cricket, back-spin along the line of the seam is normally applied in order to keep the seam vertical and to provide stability against ‘wobble’ of the seam. Whilst spin is normally thought of as primarily being the slow bowler's domain, the spin applied by the swing bowler has the side-effect of generating a lift or Magnus force. This force, depending on the orientation of the seam and hence that of the back-spin, can have a side-ways component as well as the expected vertical ‘lift’ component. The effect of the spin itself, in influencing the trajectory of the fast bowler's delivery, is normally not considered, presumably being thought of as negligible. The purpose of this paper is to investigate, using calculated model trajectories, the amount of side-ways movement due to the spin and to see how this predicted movement compares with the total observed side-ways movement. The size of the vertical lift component is also estimated. It is found that, although the spin is an essential part of the successful swing bowler's delivery, the amount of side-ways movement due to the spin itself amounts to a few centimetres or so, and is therefore small, but perhaps not negligible, compared to the total amount of side-ways movement observed. The spin does, however, provide a considerable amount of lift compared to the equivalent delivery bowled without spin, altering the point of pitching by up to 3 m, a very large amount indeed. Thus, for example, bowling a ball with the seam pointing directly down the pitch and not designed to swing side-ways at all, but with the amount of back-spin varied, could provide a very powerful additional weapon in the fast bowler's arsenal. So-called ‘sling bowlers’, who use a very low arm action, can take advantage of spin since effectively they can apply side-spin to the ball, giving rise to a large side-ways movement, ˜ 20{}^\\circ cm or more, which certainly is

  13. Can representational trajectory reveal the nature of an internal model of gravity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sá Teixeira, Nuno; Hecht, Heiko

    2014-05-01

    The memory for the vanishing location of a horizontally moving target is usually displaced forward in the direction of motion (representational momentum) and downward in the direction of gravity (representational gravity). Moreover, this downward displacement has been shown to increase with time (representational trajectory). However, the degree to which different kinematic events change the temporal profile of these displacements remains to be determined. The present article attempts to fill this gap. In the first experiment, we replicate the finding that representational momentum for downward-moving targets is bigger than for upward motions, showing, moreover, that it increases rapidly during the first 300 ms, stabilizing afterward. This temporal profile, but not the increased error for descending targets, is shown to be disrupted when eye movements are not allowed. In the second experiment, we show that the downward drift with time emerges even for static targets. Finally, in the third experiment, we report an increased error for upward-moving targets, as compared with downward movements, when the display is compatible with a downward ego-motion by including vection cues. Thus, the errors in the direction of gravity are compatible with the perceived event and do not merely reflect a retinotopic bias. Overall, these results provide further evidence for an internal model of gravity in the visual representational system.

  14. Monitoring the trajectory of urban nighttime light hotspots using a Gaussian volume model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qiming; Jiang, Ruowei; Wang, Ke; Huang, Lingyan; Ye, Ziran; Gan, Muye; Ji, Biyong

    2018-03-01

    Urban nighttime light hotspot is an ideal representation of the spatial heterogeneity of human activities within a city, which is sensitive to regional urban expansion pattern. However, most of previous studies related to nighttime light imageries focused on extracting urban extent, leaving the spatial variation of radiance intensity insufficiently explored. With the help of global radiance calibrated DMSP-OLS datasets (NTLgrc), we proposed an innovative framework to explore the spatio-temporal trajectory of polycentric urban nighttime light hotspots. Firstly, NTLgrc was inter-annually calibrated to improve the consistency. Secondly, multi-resolution segmentation and region-growing SVM classification were employed to remove blooming effect and to extract potential clusters. At last, the urban hotspots were identified by a Gaussian volume model, and the resulting parameters were used to quantitatively depict hotspot features (i.e., intensity, morphology and centroid dynamics). The result shows that our framework successfully captures hotspots in polycentric urban area, whose Ra2 are over 0.9. Meanwhile, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the hotspot features intuitively reveal the impact of the regional urban growth pattern and planning strategies on human activities. Compared to previous studies, our framework is more robust and offers an effective way to describe hotspot pattern. Also, it provides a more comprehensive and spatial-explicit understanding regarding the interaction between urbanization pattern and human activities. Our findings are expected to be beneficial to governors in term of sustainable urban planning and decision making.

  15. A model predictive control approach combined unscented Kalman filter vehicle state estimation in intelligent vehicle trajectory tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiao Yu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking and state estimation are significant in the motion planning and intelligent vehicle control. This article focuses on the model predictive control approach for the trajectory tracking of the intelligent vehicles and state estimation of the nonlinear vehicle system. The constraints of the system states are considered when applying the model predictive control method to the practical problem, while 4-degree-of-freedom vehicle model and unscented Kalman filter are proposed to estimate the vehicle states. The estimated states of the vehicle are used to provide model predictive control with real-time control and judge vehicle stability. Furthermore, in order to decrease the cost of solving the nonlinear optimization, the linear time-varying model predictive control is used at each time step. The effectiveness of the proposed vehicle state estimation and model predictive control method is tested by driving simulator. The results of simulations and experiments show that great and robust performance is achieved for trajectory tracking and state estimation in different scenarios.

  16. Box Integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, Jonathan M.; Crandall, Richard E.

    2006-06-01

    By a "box integral" we mean here an expectation $\\langle|\\vec r - \\vec q|^s \\rangle$ where $\\vec r$runs over the unit $n$-cube,with $\\vec q$ and $s$ fixed, explicitly:\\begin eqnarray*&&\\int_01 \\cdots \\int_01 \\left((r_1 - q_1)2 + \\dots+(r_n-q_n)2\\right)^ s/2 \\ dr_1 \\cdots dr_n.\\end eqnarray* The study ofbox integrals leads one naturally into several disparate fields ofanalysis. While previous studies have focused upon symbolic evaluationand asymptotic analysis of special cases (notably $s = 1$), we workherein more generally--in interdisciplinary fashion--developing resultssuch as: (1) analytic continuation (in complex $s$), (2) relevantcombinatorial identities, (3) rapidly converging series, (4) statisticalinferences, (5) connections to mathematical physics, and (6)extreme-precision quadrature techniques appropriate for these integrals.These intuitions and results open up avenues of experimental mathematics,with a view to new conjectures and theorems on integrals of thistype.

  17. Predictions by the multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox compared to field data: Intermedia concentration ratios of two phthalate esters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struijs J; Peijnenburg WJGM; ECO

    2003-01-01

    The multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox is applied to compute steady-state concentration ratios with the aim to harmonize environmetal quality objectives of air, water, sediment and soil. In 1995 the Dutch Health Council recommended validation of the model. Several activities were

  18. Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol-lowering drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Shah, Arvind K; Lin, Jianxin

    2013-10-15

    In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the deviance information criterion is used to select the best transformation model. Because the model is quite complex, we develop a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling scheme to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol-lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three-dimensional response consisting of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Because the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately; however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate because these variables are correlated with each other. We carry out a detailed analysis of these data by using the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol lowering drugs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Shah, Arvind K.; Lin, Jianxin

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data (IPD) in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the best transformation model. Since the model is quite complex, a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampling scheme is developed to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three dimensional response consisting of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C), High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C), and Triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Since the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately: however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate since these variables are correlated with each other. A detailed analysis of these data is carried out using the proposed methodology. PMID:23580436

  20. SimpleTreat: a spreadsheet-based box model to predict the fate of xenobiotics in a municipal waste water treatment plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struijs J; van de Meent D; Stoltenkamp J

    1991-01-01

    A non-equilibrium steady state box model is reported, that predicts the fate of new chemicals in a conventional sewage treatment plant from a minimal input data set. The model, written in an electronic spreadsheet (Lotus TM 123), requires a minimum input: some basic properties of the chemical, its

  1. Kalman filter application to mitigate the errors in the trajectory simulations due to the lunar gravitational model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V; Kuga, H K

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to simulate part of the orbital trajectory of Lunar Prospector mission to analyze the relevance of using a Kalman filter to estimate the trajectory. For this study it is considered the disturbance due to the lunar gravitational potential using one of the most recent models, the LP100K model, which is based on spherical harmonics, and considers the maximum degree and order up to the value 100. In order to simplify the expression of the gravitational potential and, consequently, to reduce the computational effort required in the simulation, in some cases, lower values for degree and order are used. Following this aim, it is made an analysis of the inserted error in the simulations when using such values of degree and order to propagate the spacecraft trajectory and control. This analysis was done using the standard deviation that characterizes the uncertainty for each one of the values of the degree and order used in LP100K model for the satellite orbit. With knowledge of the uncertainty of the gravity model adopted, lunar orbital trajectory simulations may be accomplished considering these values of uncertainty. Furthermore, it was also used a Kalman filter, where is considered the sensor's uncertainty that defines the satellite position at each step of the simulation and the uncertainty of the model, by means of the characteristic variance of the truncated gravity model. Thus, this procedure represents an effort to approximate the results obtained using lower values for the degree and order of the spherical harmonics, to the results that would be attained if the maximum accuracy of the model LP100K were adopted. Also a comparison is made between the error in the satellite position in the situation in which the Kalman filter is used and the situation in which the filter is not used. The data for the comparison were obtained from the standard deviation in the velocity increment of the space vehicle. (paper)

  2. Serial grey-box model of a stratified thermal tank for hierarchical control of a solar plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arahal, Manuel R. [Universidad de Sevilla, Dpto. de Ingenieria de Sistemas y Automatica, Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n, 41092 Sevilla (Spain); Cirre, Cristina M. [Convenio Universidad de Almeria-Plataforma Solar de Almeria, Ctra. Senes s/n, 04200 Tabernas, Almeria (Spain); Berenguel, Manuel [Universidad de Almeria, Dpto. Lenguajes y Computacion, Ctra. Sacramento s/n, 04120, Almeria (Spain)

    2008-05-15

    The ACUREX collector field together with a thermal storage tank and a power conversion system forms the Small Solar Power Systems plant of the Plataforma Solar de Almeria, a facility that has been used for research for the last 25 years. A simulator of the collector field produced by the last author has been available to and used as a test-bed for control strategies. Up to now, however, there is not a model for the whole plant. Such model is needed for hierarchical control schemes also proposed by the authors. In this paper a model of the thermal storage tank is derived using the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation technique to adjust the parameters of a serial grey-box model structure. The benefits of the proposed approach are discussed in the context of the intended use, requiring a model capable of simulating the behavior of the storage tank with low computational load and low error over medium to large horizons. The model is tested against real data in a variety of situations showing its performance in terms of simulation error in the temperature profile and in the usable energy stored in the tank. The results obtained demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach. (author)

  3. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  4. Direct Observation of Long-Range Transport Using Continuously Sounding Balloons and Near-Real-Time Trajectory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, P. B.; Zaveri, R. A.; Berkowitz, C. M.

    2009-12-01

    Controlled Meteorological (CMET) balloons have been used in several recent studies to measure long-range transport over periods as long as 30 hours and distances up to 1000 kilometers. By repeatedly performing shallow soundings as they drift, CMET balloons can quantify evolving atmospheric structure, mixing events, shear advection, and dispersion during transport. In addition, the quasi-Lagrangian wind profiles can be used to drive a multi-layer trajectory model in which the advected air parcels follow the underlying terrain, or are constrained by altitude, potential temperature, or tracer concentration. Data from a coordinated balloon-aircraft study of long range transport over Texas (SETTS 2005) show that the reconstructed trajectories accurately track residual-layer urban outflow (and at times even its fine-scale structure) over distances of many hundreds of kilometers. The reconstructed trajectories and evolving profile visualizations are increasingly being made available in near-real time during balloon flights, supporting data-driven flight planning and sophisticated process studies relevant to atmospheric chemistry and climate. Multilayer trajectories (black grids) derived from CMET balloon flight paths (grey lines) for a transport event across Texas in 2005.

  5. Scientific models red atoms, white lies and black boxes in a yellow book

    CERN Document Server

    Gerlee, Philip

    2016-01-01

    A zebrafish, the hull of a miniature ship, a mathematical equation and a food chain - what do these things have in common? They are examples of models used by scientists to isolate and study particular aspects of the world around us. This book begins by introducing the concept of a scientific model from an intuitive perspective, drawing parallels to mental models and artistic representations. It then recounts the history of modelling from the 16th century up until the present day. The iterative process of model building is described and discussed in the context of complex models with high predictive accuracy versus simpler models that provide more of a conceptual understanding. To illustrate the diversity of opinions within the scientific community, we also present the results of an interview study, in which ten scientists from different disciplines describe their views on modelling and how models feature in their work. Lastly, it includes a number of worked examples that span different modelling approaches a...

  6. Dynamic Universe Model Predicts the Trajectory of New Horizons Satellite Going to Pluto.......

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naga Parameswara Gupta, Satyavarapu

    2012-07-01

    New Horizons is NASA's artificial satellite now going towards to the dwarf planet Pluto. It has crossed Jupiter. It is expected to be the rst spacecraft to go near and study Pluto and its moons, Charon, Nix, and Hydra. These are the predictions for New Horizons (NH) space craft as on A.D. 2009-Aug-09 00:00:00.0000 hrs. The behavior of NH is similar to Pioneer Space craft as NH traveling is alike to Pioneer. NH is supposed to reach Pluto in 2015 AD. There was a gravity assist taken at Jupiter about a year back. As Dynamic universe model explains Pioneer anomaly and the higher gravitational attraction forces experienced towards SUN, It can explain NH also in a similar fashion. I am giving the predictions for NH by Dynamic Universe Model in the following Table 4. Here first two rows give Dynamic Universe Model predictions based on 02-01-2009 00:00 hrs data with Daily time step and hourly time step. Third row gives Ephemeris from Jet propulsion lab.Dynamic Universe Model can predict further to 9-Aug-2009. These Ephemeris data is from their web as on 28th June 2009 Any new data can be calculated..... For finding trajectories of Pioneer satellite (Anomaly), New Horizons satellite going to Pluto, the Calculations of Dynamic Universe model can be successfully applied. No dark matter is assumed within solar system radius. The effect on the masses around SUN shows as though there is extra gravitation pull toward SUN. It solves the Dynamics of Extra-solar planets like Planet X, satellite like Pioneer and NH for 3-Position, 3-velocity 3-acceleration for their masses,considering the complex situation of Multiple planets, Stars, Galaxy parts and Galaxy center and other Galaxies Using simple Newtonian Physics. It already solved problems Missing mass in Galaxies observed by galaxy circular velocity curves successfully. `SITA Simulations' software was developed about 18 years back for Dynamic Universe Model of Cosmology. It is based on Newtonian physics. It is Classical singularity

  7. Adaptive robust motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders with LuGre model-based friction compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Deyuan; Tao, Guoliang; Liu, Hao; Zhu, Xiaocong

    2014-07-01

    Friction compensation is particularly important for motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders at low speed movement. However, most of the existing model-based friction compensation schemes use simple classical models, which are not enough to address applications with high-accuracy position requirements. Furthermore, the friction force in the cylinder is time-varying, and there exist rather severe unmodelled dynamics and unknown disturbances in the pneumatic system. To deal with these problems effectively, an adaptive robust controller with LuGre model-based dynamic friction compensation is constructed. The proposed controller employs on-line recursive least squares estimation (RLSE) to reduce the extent of parametric uncertainties, and utilizes the sliding mode control method to attenuate the effects of parameter estimation errors, unmodelled dynamics and disturbances. In addition, in order to realize LuGre model-based friction compensation, the modified dual-observer structure for estimating immeasurable friction internal state is developed. Therefore, a prescribed motion tracking transient performance and final tracking accuracy can be guaranteed. Since the system model uncertainties are unmatched, the recursive backstepping design technology is applied. In order to solve the conflicts between the sliding mode control design and the adaptive control design, the projection mapping is used to condition the RLSE algorithm so that the parameter estimates are kept within a known bounded convex set. Finally, the proposed controller is tested for tracking sinusoidal trajectories and smooth square trajectory under different loads and sudden disturbance. The testing results demonstrate that the achievable performance of the proposed controller is excellent and is much better than most other studies in literature. Especially when a 0.5 Hz sinusoidal trajectory is tracked, the maximum tracking error is 0.96 mm and the average tracking error is 0.45 mm. This

  8. Simulating atmospheric composition over a South-East Asian tropical rainforest: performance of a chemistry box model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. M. Pugh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric composition and chemistry above tropical rainforests is currently not well established, particularly for south-east Asia. In order to examine our understanding of chemical processes in this region, the performance of a box model of atmospheric boundary layer chemistry is tested against measurements made at the top of the rainforest canopy near Danum Valley, Malaysian Borneo. Multi-variate optimisation against ambient concentration measurements was used to estimate average canopy-scale emissions for isoprene, total monoterpenes and nitric oxide. The excellent agreement between estimated values and measured fluxes of isoprene and total monoterpenes provides confidence in the overall modelling strategy, and suggests that this method may be applied where measured fluxes are not available, assuming that the local chemistry and mixing are adequately understood. The largest contributors to the optimisation cost function at the point of best-fit are OH (29%, NO (22% and total peroxy radicals (27%. Several factors affect the modelled VOC chemistry. In particular concentrations of methacrolein (MACR and methyl-vinyl ketone (MVK are substantially overestimated, and the hydroxyl radical (OH concentration is substantially underestimated; as has been seen before in tropical rainforest studies. It is shown that inclusion of dry deposition of MACR and MVK and wet deposition of species with high Henry's Law values substantially improves the fit of these oxidised species, whilst also substantially decreasing the OH sink. Increasing OH production arbitrarily, through a simple OH recycling mechanism , adversely affects the model fit for volatile organic compounds (VOCs. Given the constraints on isoprene flux provided by measurements, a substantial decrease in the rate of reaction of VOCs with OH is the only remaining option to explain the measurement/model discrepancy for OH. A reduction in the isoprene+OH rate constant of 50%, in conjunction with

  9. The potential of agent-based modelling for verification of people trajectories based on smartphone sensor data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillen, F; Ehlers, M; Höfle, B; Reinartz, P

    2014-01-01

    In this paper the potential of smartphone sensor data for verification of people trajectories derived from airborne remote sensing data are investigated and discussed based on simulated test recordings in the city of Osnabrueck, Germany. For this purpose, the airborne imagery is simulated by images taken from a high building with a typical single lens reflex camera. The smartphone data required for the analysis of the potential is simultaneously recorded by test persons on the ground. In a second step, the quality of the smartphone sensor data is evaluated regarding the integration into simulation and modelling approaches. In this context we studied the potential of the agent-based modelling technique concerning the verification of people trajectories

  10. Upscaling of dilution and mixing using a trajectory based Spatial Markov random walk model in a periodic flow domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sund, Nicole L.; Porta, Giovanni M.; Bolster, Diogo

    2017-05-01

    The Spatial Markov Model (SMM) is an upscaled model that has been used successfully to predict effective mean transport across a broad range of hydrologic settings. Here we propose a novel variant of the SMM, applicable to spatially periodic systems. This SMM is built using particle trajectories, rather than travel times. By applying the proposed SMM to a simple benchmark problem we demonstrate that it can predict mean effective transport, when compared to data from fully resolved direct numerical simulations. Next we propose a methodology for using this SMM framework to predict measures of mixing and dilution, that do not just depend on mean concentrations, but are strongly impacted by pore-scale concentration fluctuations. We use information from trajectories of particles to downscale and reconstruct pore-scale approximate concentration fields from which mixing and dilution measures are then calculated. The comparison between measurements from fully resolved simulations and predictions with the SMM agree very favorably.

  11. Renormalization of the new trajectory in the unitarized conventional dual model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quiros, M.

    1978-08-01

    The contribution of one-loop planar diagrams to the two-reggeon two-particle amplitude is derived. Its regge limit splits into two separate contributions which must be interpreted as renormalization effects, to order g 2 , of the α and β trajectories. It is shown that the Neveu-Scherk renormalization prescription is able to render finite both contributions. The intercept of the β trajectory is shifted from its bare value by the renormalization procedure, whereas that of the α trajectrory is not renormalized as it was required by the gauge invariance of dual theories

  12. Cyclin-like F-box protein plays a role in growth and development of the three model species Medicago truncatula, Lotus japonicus, and Arabidopsis thaliana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boycheva I

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Irina Boycheva,1 Valya Vassileva,2 Miglena Revalska,1 Grigor Zehirov,2 Anelia Iantcheva1 1Department of Functional Genetics Legumes, 2AgroBioInstitute, Department of Plant Stress Molecular Biology, Institute of Plant Physiology and Genetics, Sofia, Bulgaria Abstract: In eukaryotes, F-box proteins are one of the main components of the SCF complex that belongs to the family of ubiquitin E3 ligases, which catalyze protein ubiquitination and maintain the balance between protein synthesis and degradation. In the present study, we clarified the role and function of the gene encoding cyclin-like F-box protein from Medicago truncatula using transgenic plants of the model species M. truncatula, Lotus japonicas, and Arabidopsis thaliana generated by Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. Morphological and transcriptional analyses combined with flow cytometry and histochemistry demonstrated the participation of this protein in many aspects of plant growth and development, including processes of indirect somatic embryogenesis and symbiotic nodulation. The cyclin-like F-box gene showed expression in all plant organs and tissues comprised of actively dividing cells. The observed variations in root and hypocotyl growth, leaf and silique development, ploidy levels, and leaf parameters in the obtained transgenic lines demonstrated the effects of this gene on organ development. Furthermore, knockdown of cyclin-like F-box led to accumulation of higher levels of the G2/M transition-specific gene cyclin B1:1 (CYCB1:1, suggesting its possible role in cell cycle control. Together, the collected data suggest a similar role of the cyclin-like F-box protein in the three model species, providing evidence for the functional conservation of the studied gene. Keywords: cyclin-like F-box, model legumes, Arabidopsis thaliana, plant growth, plant development, cell cycle

  13. An alternative approach to modelling HbA1c trajectories in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Phil; Bennett, Hayley; Qin, Lei; Bergenheim, Klas; Gordon, Jason; Evans, Marc

    2017-05-01

    Time-dependent HbA1c trajectories in health economic models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are typically informed by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). However, this approach may not accurately predict HbA1c progression in patients who do not conform to the demographic profile of the original UKPDS cohort. This study aimed to develop an alternative mathematical model (MM) to simulate HbA1c progression in T2DM. A systematic literature review identified studies, published between 2005 and 2015, that reported HbA1c in adult T2DM patients over a minimum duration of 18 months. Pooled data from eligible studies were used to develop an alternative MM equation for HbA1c progression, which was then contrasted with the UKPDS 68 progression equation in illustrative scenarios. A total of 68 studies were eligible for data extraction (mean follow-up time 4.1 years). HbA1c progression was highly heterogeneous across studies, varying with baseline HbA1c, treatment group and patient age. The MM equation was fitted with parameters for mean baseline HbA1c (8.3%), initial change in HbA1c (-0.62%) and upper quartile of maximum observed HbA1c (9.3%). Differences in HbA1c trajectories between the MM and UKPDS approaches altered the timing of therapy escalation in illustrative scenarios. The MM represents an alternative approach to simulate HbA1c trajectories in T2DM models, as UKPDS data may not adequately reflect the heterogeneity of HbA1c profiles observed in clinical studies. However, the choice of approach should ultimately be determined by the characteristics of individual patients under consideration and the clinical face validity of the modelled trajectories. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. New trajectory-driven aerosol and chemical process model Chemical and Aerosol Lagrangian Model (CALM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tunved

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A new Chemical and Aerosol Lagrangian Model (CALM has been developed and tested. The model incorporates all central aerosol dynamical processes, from nucleation, condensation, coagulation and deposition to cloud formation and in-cloud processing. The model is tested and evaluated against observations performed at the SMEAR II station located at Hyytiälä (61° 51' N, 24° 17' E over a time period of two years, 2000–2001. The model shows good agreement with measurements throughout most of the year, but fails in reproducing the aerosol properties during the winter season, resulting in poor agreement between model and measurements especially during December–January. Nevertheless, through the rest of the year both trends and magnitude of modal concentrations show good agreement with observation, as do the monthly average size distribution properties. The model is also shown to capture individual nucleation events to a certain degree. This indicates that nucleation largely is controlled by the availability of nucleating material (as prescribed by the [H2SO4], availability of condensing material (in this model 15% of primary reactions of monoterpenes (MT are assumed to produce low volatile species and the properties of the size distribution (more specifically, the condensation sink. This is further demonstrated by the fact that the model captures the annual trend in nuclei mode concentration. The model is also used, alongside sensitivity tests, to examine which processes dominate the aerosol size distribution physical properties. It is shown, in agreement with previous studies, that nucleation governs the number concentration during transport from clean areas. It is also shown that primary number emissions almost exclusively govern the CN concentration when air from Central Europe is advected north over Scandinavia. We also show that biogenic emissions have a large influence on the amount of potential CCN observed

  15. Measuring and Modeling the Effects of Alternate Post-Fire Successional Trajectories on Boreal Forest Carbon Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loranty, M. M.; Goetz, S. J.; Mack, M. C.; Alexander, H. D.; Beck, P. S.

    2011-12-01

    High latitude ecosystems are experiencing amplified climate warming, and recent evidence suggests concurrent intensification of fire disturbance regimes. In central Alaskan boreal forests, severe burns consume more of the soil organic layer, resulting in increased establishment of deciduous seedlings and altered post-fire stand composition with increased deciduous dominance. Quantifying differences in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics between forest successional trajectories in response to burn severity is essential for understanding potential changes in regional or global feedbacks between boreal forests and climate. We used the Biome BioGeochemical Cycling model (Biome-BGC) to quantify differences in C stocks and fluxes associated with alternate post-fire successional trajectories related to fire severity. A version of Biome-BGC that allows alternate competing vegetation types was calibrated against a series of aboveground biomass observations from chronosequences of stands with differing post-fire successional trajectories characterized by the proportion of deciduous biomass. The model was able to reproduce observed patterns of biomass accumulation after fire, with stands dominated by deciduous species sequestering more C at a faster rate than stands dominated by conifers. Modeled C fluxes suggest that stands dominated by deciduous species are a stronger sink of atmospheric C soon after disturbance than coniferous stands. These results agree with the few available C flux observations. We use a historic database in conjunction with a map of deciduous canopy cover to explore the consequences of ongoing and potential future changes in the fire regime on central Alaskan C balance.

  16. Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.

    2018-06-01

    A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.

  17. A model of curved saccade trajectories: spike rate adaptation in the brainstem as the cause of deviation away.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijne, Wouter; Van der Stigchel, Stefan; Meeter, Martijn

    2014-03-01

    The trajectory of saccades to a target is often affected whenever there is a distractor in the visual field. Distractors can cause a saccade to deviate towards their location or away from it. The oculomotor mechanisms that produce deviation towards distractors have been thoroughly explored in behavioral, neurophysiological and computational studies. The mechanisms underlying deviation away, on the other hand, remain unclear. Behavioral findings suggest a mechanism of spatially focused, top-down inhibition in a saccade map, and deviation away has become a tool to investigate such inhibition. However, this inhibition hypothesis has little neuroanatomical or neurophysiological support, and recent findings go against it. Here, we propose that deviation away results from an unbalanced saccade drive from the brainstem, caused by spike rate adaptation in brainstem long-lead burst neurons. Adaptation to stimulation in the direction of the distractor results in an unbalanced drive away from it. An existing model of the saccade system was extended with this theory. The resulting model simulates a wide range of findings on saccade trajectories, including findings that have classically been interpreted to support inhibition views. Furthermore, the model replicated the effect of saccade latency on deviation away, but predicted this effect would be absent with large (400 ms) distractor-target onset asynchrony. This prediction was confirmed in an experiment, which demonstrates that the theory both explains classical findings on saccade trajectories and predicts new findings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. On looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in the Search for Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    particularly in terms of the ways in which humans understand systems. Norman (19831 characterizes this understanding as messy, sloppy, incomplete, and...Kleinman, et al., 1971]). However, for tasks involving only monitoring [ Smallwood , 1967; Sheridan, 1970], especially when apparent discontinuities...18 Norman [1983] uses the word "conceptaalization" to characterize researchers’ models of humans’ mental models. This characterization serves to

  19. On Looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in the Search for Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouse, W. B.; Morris, N. M.

    1984-01-01

    To place the arguments advanced in this paper in alternative points of view with regard to mental models are reviewed. Use of the construct in areas such as neural information processing, manual control, decision making, problem solving, and cognitive science are discussed. Also reviewed are several taxonomies of mental models. The available empirical evidence for answering questions concerning the nature and usage of mental models is then discussed. A variety of studies are reviewed where the type and form of humans' knowledge have been manipulated. Also considered are numerous transfer of training studies whose results provide indirect evidence of the nature of mental models. The alternative perspectives considered and the spectrum of empirical evidence are combined to suggest a framework within which research on mental models can be viewed. By considering interactions of dimensions of this framework, the most salient unanswered questions can be identified.

  20. The G-dwarf problem and the closed-box models of Galactic evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.; Vangioni-Flam, E.; Audouze, J.

    1990-01-01

    The paucity of very iron-poor stars in the Galactic disk with respect to the predictions of the simple model of Galactic chemical evolution (the notorious G-dwarf problem) is one of the most fundamental constraints of Galactic evolutionary models. This paper tests recently proposed models, with bimodal and varying star formation rates, against the G-dwarf metallicity distribution, the gas/total mass ratio in the solar vicinity, the age-metallicity relation, and the abundances of deuterium, O-16, Mg-24, Si-28, and Fe-56 at the birth of the sun. It is shown that none of these models agree entirely with the data, but that it is possible to find a combination of the two models leading to reasonable results. 35 refs

  1. NASA's Climate in a Box: Desktop Supercomputing for Open Scientific Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojcik, G. S.; Seablom, M. S.; Lee, T. J.; McConaughy, G. R.; Syed, R.; Oloso, A.; Kemp, E. M.; Greenseid, J.; Smith, R.

    2009-12-01

    NASA's High Performance Computing Portfolio in cooperation with its Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program intends to make its climate and earth science models more accessible to a larger community. A key goal of this effort is to open the model development and validation process to the scientific community at large such that a natural selection process is enabled and results in a more efficient scientific process. One obstacle to others using NASA models is the complexity of the models and the difficulty in learning how to use them. This situation applies not only to scientists who regularly use these models but also non-typical users who may want to use the models such as scientists from different domains, policy makers, and teachers. Another obstacle to the use of these models is that access to high performance computing (HPC) accounts, from which the models are implemented, can be restrictive with long wait times in job queues and delays caused by an arduous process of obtaining an account, especially for foreign nationals. This project explores the utility of using desktop supercomputers in providing a complete ready-to-use toolkit of climate research products to investigators and on demand access to an HPC system. One objective of this work is to pre-package NASA and NOAA models so that new users will not have to spend significant time porting the models. In addition, the prepackaged toolkit will include tools, such as workflow, visualization, social networking web sites, and analysis tools, to assist users in running the models and analyzing the data. The system architecture to be developed will allow for automatic code updates for each user and an effective means with which to deal with data that are generated. We plan to investigate several desktop systems, but our work to date has focused on a Cray CX1. Currently, we are investigating the potential capabilities of several non-traditional development environments. While most NASA and NOAA models are

  2. Spatial and Temporal Extrapolation of Disdrometer Size Distributions Based on a Lagrangian Trajectory Model of Falling Rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, John E.; Kasparis, Takis; Jones, W. Linwood; Metzger, Philip T.

    2009-01-01

    Methodologies to improve disdrometer processing, loosely based on mathematical techniques common to the field of particle flow and fluid mechanics, are examined and tested. The inclusion of advection and vertical wind field estimates appear to produce significantly improved results in a Lagrangian hydrometeor trajectory model, in spite of very strict assumptions of noninteracting hydrometeors, constant vertical air velocity, and time independent advection during the scan time interval. Wind field data can be extracted from each radar elevation scan by plotting and analyzing reflectivity contours over the disdrometer site and by collecting the radar radial velocity data to obtain estimates of advection. Specific regions of disdrometer spectra (drop size versus time) often exhibit strong gravitational sorting signatures, from which estimates of vertical velocity can be extracted. These independent wind field estimates become inputs and initial conditions to the Lagrangian trajectory simulation of falling hydrometeors.

  3. (Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Lu; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ji, Linying; Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

  4. The puzzle box as a simple and efficient behavioral test for exploring impairments of general cognition and executive functions in mouse models of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Abdallah, Nada M-B; Fuss, Johannes; Trusel, Massimo; Galsworthy, Michael J; Bobsin, Kristin; Colacicco, Giovanni; Deacon, Robert M J; Riva, Marco A; Kellendonk, Christoph; Sprengel, Rolf; Lipp, Hans-Peter; Gass, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Deficits in executive functions are key features of schizophrenia. Rodent behavioral paradigms used so far to find animal correlates of such deficits require extensive effort and time. The puzzle box is a problem-solving test in which mice are required to complete escape tasks of increasing difficulty within a limited amount of time. Previous data have indicated that it is a quick but highly reliable test of higher-order cognitive functioning. We evaluated the use of the puzzle box to explore executive functioning in five different mouse models of schizophrenia: mice with prefrontal cortex and hippocampus lesions, mice treated sub-chronically with the NMDA-receptor antagonist MK-801, mice constitutively lacking the GluA1 subunit of AMPA-receptors, and mice over-expressing dopamine D2 receptors in the striatum. All mice displayed altered executive functions in the puzzle box, although the nature and extent of the deficits varied between the different models. Deficits were strongest in hippocampus-lesioned and GluA1 knockout mice, while more subtle deficits but specific to problem solving were found in the medial prefrontal-lesioned mice, MK-801-treated mice, and in mice with striatal overexpression of D2 receptors. Data from this study demonstrate the utility of the puzzle box as an effective screening tool for executive functions in general and for schizophrenia mouse models in particular. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Branching trajectory continual integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslov, V.P.; Chebotarev, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    Heuristic definition of the Feynman continual integral over branching trajectories is suggested which makes it possible to obtain in the closed form the solution of the Cauchy problem for the model Hartree equation. A number of properties of the solution is derived from an integral representation. In particular, the quasiclassical asymptotics, exact solution in the gaussian case and perturbation theory series are described. The existence theorem for the simpliest continual integral over branching trajectories is proved [ru

  6. Arthroscopic skills assessment and use of box model for training in arthroscopic surgery using Sawbones – “FAST” workstation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goyal Saumitra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Arthroscopic skills training outside the operative room may decrease risks and errors by trainee surgeons. There is a need of simple objective method for evaluating proficiency and skill of arthroscopy trainees using simple bench model of arthroscopic simulator. The aim of this study is to correlate motor task performance to level of prior arthroscopic experience and establish benchmarks for training modules. Methods: Twenty orthopaedic surgeons performed a set of tasks to assess a arthroscopic triangulation, b navigation, c object handling and d meniscus trimming using SAWBONES “FAST” arthroscopy skills workstation. Time to completion and the errors were computed. The subjects were divided into four levels; “Novice”, “Beginner”, “Intermediate” and “Advanced” based on previous arthroscopy experience, for analyses of performance. Results: The task performance under transparent dome was not related to experience of the surgeon unlike opaque dome, highlighting the importance of hand-eye co-ordination required in arthroscopy. Median time to completion for each task improved as the level of experience increased and this was found to be statistically significant (p 85% of subjects across all the levels reported improvement in performance with sequential tasks. Conclusion: Use of the arthroscope requires visuo-spatial coordination which is a skill that develops with practice. This simple box model can reliably differentiate the arthroscopic skills based on experience and can be used to monitor progression of skills of trainees in institutions.

  7. Purpurogallin, a Natural Phenol, Attenuates High-Mobility Group Box 1 in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Induced Vasospasm in a Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Zen Chang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available High-mobility group box 1 (HMGB1 was shown to be an important extracellular mediator involved in vascular inflammation of animals following subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH. This study is of interest to examine the efficacy of purpurogallin, a natural phenol, on the alternation of cytokines and HMGB1 in a SAH model. A rodent double hemorrhage SAH model was employed. Basilar arteries (BAs were harvested to examine HMGB1 mRNA and protein expression (Western blot. CSF samples were to examine IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α (rt-PCR. Deformed endothelial wall, tortuous elastic lamina, and necrotic smooth muscle were observed in the vessels of SAH groups but were absent in the purpurogallin group. IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α in the SAH only and SAH plus vehicle groups were significantly elevated (P<0.01. Purpurgallin dose-dependently reduced HMGB1 protein expression. Likewise, high dose purpurogallin reduced TNF-α and HMGB1 mRNA levels. In conclusion, purpurogallin exerts its neuroinflammation effect through the dual effect of inhibiting IL-6 and TNF-α mRNA expression and reducing HMGB1 protein and mRNA expression. This study supports purpurogallin could attenuate both proinflammatory cytokines and late-onset inflammasome in SAH induced vasospasm.

  8. Response surface modeling of acid activation of raw diatomite using in sunflower oil bleaching by: Box-Behnken experimental design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larouci, M; Safa, M; Meddah, B; Aoues, A; Sonnet, P

    2015-03-01

    The optimum conditions for acid activation of diatomite for maximizing bleaching efficiency of the diatomite in sun flower oil treatment were studied. Box-Behnken experimental design combining with response surface modeling (RSM) and quadratic programming (QP) was employed to obtain the optimum conditions of three independent variables (acid concentration, activation time and solid to liquid) for acid activation of diatomite. The significance of independent variables and their interactions were tested by means of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95 % confidence limits (α = 0.05). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained by solving the quadratic regression model, as well as by analyzing the response surface contour plots. The experimental conditions at this global point were determined to be acid concentration = 8.963 N, activation time = 11.9878 h, and solid to liquid ratio = 221.2113 g/l, the corresponding bleaching efficiency was found to be about 99 %.

  9. A grey box model of glucose fermentation and syntrophic oxidation in microbial fuel cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Los Ángeles Fernandez, Maria; de Los Ángeles Sanromán, Maria; Marks, Stanislaw; Makinia, Jacek; Gonzalez Del Campo, Araceli; Rodrigo, Manuel; Fernandez, Francisco Jesus

    2016-01-01

    In this work, the fermentative and oxidative processes taking place in a microbial fuel cell (MFC) fed with glucose were studied and modeled. The model accounting for the bioelectrochemical processes was based on ordinary, Monod-type differential equations. The model parameters were estimated using experimental results obtained from three H-type MFCs operated at open or closed circuits and fed with glucose or ethanol. The experimental results demonstrate that similar fermentation processes were carried out under open and closed circuit operation, with the most important fermentation products being ethanol (with a yield of 1.81molmol(-1) glucose) and lactic acid (with a yield of 1.36molmol(-1) glucose). A peak in the electricity generation was obtained when glucose and fermentation products coexisted in the liquid bulk. However, almost 90% of the electricity produced came from the oxidation of ethanol. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Particle-in-a-box model of one-dimensional excitons in conjugated polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Thomas G.; Johansen, Per M.; Pedersen, Henrik C.

    2000-04-01

    A simple two-particle model of excitons in conjugated polymers is proposed as an alternative to usual highly computationally demanding quantum chemical methods. In the two-particle model, the exciton is described as an electron-hole pair interacting via Coulomb forces and confined to the polymer backbone by rigid walls. Furthermore, by integrating out the transverse part, the two-particle equation is reduced to one-dimensional form. It is demonstrated how essentially exact solutions are obtained in the cases of short and long conjugation length, respectively. From a linear combination of these cases an approximate solution for the general case is obtained. As an application of the model the influence of a static electric field on the electron-hole overlap integral and exciton energy is considered.

  11. Reimagining the past - use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, V.

    2015-02-01

    The developing world is rapidly urbanizing. One of the challenges associated with this growth will be to supply water to growing cities of the developing world. Traditional planning tools fare poorly over 30-50 year time horizons because these systems are changing so rapidly. Models that hold land use, economic patterns, governance systems or technology static over a long planning horizon could result in inaccurate predictions leading to sub-optimal or paradoxical outcomes. Most models fail to account for adaptive responses by humans that in turn influence water resource availability, resulting in coevolution of the human-water system. Is a particular trajectory inevitable given a city's natural resource endowment, is the trajectory purely driven by policy or are there tipping points in the evolution of a city's growth that shift it from one trajectory onto another? Socio-hydrology has been defined as a new science of water and people that will explicitly account for such bi-directional feedbacks. However, a particular challenge in incorporating such feedbacks is imagining technological, social and political futures that could fundamentally alter future water demand, allocation and use. This paper offers an alternative approach - the use of counterfactual trajectories - that allows policy insights to be gleaned without having to predict social futures. The approach allows us to "reimagine the past"; to observe how outcomes would differ if different decisions had been made. The paper presents a "socio-hydrological" model that simulates the feedbacks between the human, engineered and hydrological systems in Chennai, India over a 40-year period. The model offers several interesting insights. First, the study demonstrates that urban household water security goes beyond piped water supply. When piped supply fails, users turn to their own wells. If the wells dry up, consumers purchase expensive tanker water or curtail water use and thus become water insecure. Second

  12. Validity of thermally-driven small-scale ventilated filling box models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Jamie L.; Linden, P. F.

    2013-11-01

    The majority of previous work studying building ventilation flows at laboratory scale have used saline plumes in water. The production of buoyancy forces using salinity variations in water allows dynamic similarity between the small-scale models and the full-scale flows. However, in some situations, such as including the effects of non-adiabatic boundaries, the use of a thermal plume is desirable. The efficacy of using temperature differences to produce buoyancy-driven flows representing natural ventilation of a building in a small-scale model is examined here, with comparison between previous theoretical and new, heat-based, experiments.

  13. Flexible mixture modeling via the multivariate t distribution with the Box-Cox transformation: an alternative to the skew-t distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Kenneth; Gottardo, Raphael

    2012-01-01

    Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of homogeneous observations in a data set. A popular modeling approach for clustering is based on finite normal mixture models, which assume that each cluster is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. However, the normality assumption that each component is symmetric is often unrealistic. Furthermore, normal mixture models are not robust against outliers; they often require extra components for modeling outliers and/or give a poor representation of the data. To address these issues, we propose a new class of distributions, multivariate t distributions with the Box-Cox transformation, for mixture modeling. This class of distributions generalizes the normal distribution with the more heavy-tailed t distribution, and introduces skewness via the Box-Cox transformation. As a result, this provides a unified framework to simultaneously handle outlier identification and data transformation, two interrelated issues. We describe an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation along with transformation selection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with three real data sets and simulation studies. Compared with a wealth of approaches including the skew-t mixture model, the proposed t mixture model with the Box-Cox transformation performs favorably in terms of accuracy in the assignment of observations, robustness against model misspecification, and selection of the number of components.

  14. Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

    Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat

  15. Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfenninger, Stefan; Hirth, Lion; Schlecht, Ingmar

    2018-01-01

    and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also...

  16. Developing grey-box model to diagnose asphaltene stability in crude oils: Application of refractive index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Zeinali Hasanvand

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Asphaltene precipitation can cause serious problems in petroleum industry while diagnosing the asphaltene stability conditions in crude oil system is still a challenge and has been subject of many investigations. To monitor and diagnose asphaltene stability, high performance intelligent approaches based bio-inspired science like artificial neural network which have been optimized by various optimization techniques have been carried out. The main purpose of the implemented optimization algorithms is to decide high accurate interconnected weights of proposed neural network model. The proposed intelligent approaches are examined by using extensive experimental data reported in open literature. Moreover, to highlight robustness and precision of the addressed approaches, two different regression models have been developed and results obtained from the aforementioned intelligent models and regression approaches are compared with the corresponding refractive index data measured in laboratory. Based on the results, hybrid of genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization have high performance and average relative absolute deviation between the model outputs and the relevant experimental data was found to be less than 0.2%. Routs from this work indicate that implication of HGAPSO-ANN in monitoring refractive index can lead to more reliable estimation of addressed issue which can lead to design of more reliable phase behavior simulation and further plans of oil production.

  17. Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.685, year: 2015

  18. The Evolution of Software Pricing: From Box Licenses to Application Service Provider Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bontis, Nick; Chung, Honsan

    2000-01-01

    Describes three different pricing models for software. Findings of this case study support the proposition that software pricing is a complex and subjective process. The key determinant of alignment between vendor and user is the nature of value in the software to the buyer. This value proposition may range from increased cost reduction to…

  19. Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

    2012-04-01

    Education of Meteorologist in Hungary - according to the Bologna Process - has three stages: BSc, MSc and PhD, and students graduating at each stage get the respective degree (BSc, MSc and PhD). The three year long base BSc course in Meteorology can be chosen by undergraduate students in the fields of Geosciences, Environmental Sciences and Physics. BasicsFundamentals in Mathematics (Calculus), Physics (General and Theoretical) Physics and Informatics are emphasized during their elementary education. The two year long MSc course - in which about 15 to 25 students are admitted each year - can be studied only at our the Eötvös Loránd uUniversity in the our country. Our aim is to give a basic education in all fields of Meteorology. Main topics are: Climatology, Atmospheric Physics, Atmospheric Chemistry, Dynamic and Synoptic Meteorology, Numerical Weather Prediction, modeling Modeling of surfaceSurface-atmosphere Iinteractions and Cclimate change. Education is performed in two branches: Climate Researcher and Forecaster. Education of Meteorologist in Hungary - according to the Bologna Process - has three stages: BSc, MSc and PhD, and students graduating at each stage get the respective degree. The three year long BSc course in Meteorology can be chosen by undergraduate students in the fields of Geosciences, Environmental Sciences and Physics. Fundamentals in Mathematics (Calculus), (General and Theoretical) Physics and Informatics are emphasized during their elementary education. The two year long MSc course - in which about 15 to 25 students are admitted each year - can be studied only at the Eötvös Loránd University in our country. Our aim is to give a basic education in all fields of Meteorology: Climatology, Atmospheric Physics, Atmospheric Chemistry, Dynamic and Synoptic Meteorology, Numerical Weather Prediction, Modeling of Surface-atmosphere Interactions and Climate change. Education is performed in two branches: Climate Researcher and Forecaster

  20. HMGB1 a-Box Reverses Brain Edema and Deterioration of Neurological Function in a Traumatic Brain Injury Mouse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijun Yang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a complex neurological injury in young adults lacking effective treatment. Emerging evidences suggest that inflammation contributes to the secondary brain injury following TBI, including breakdown of the blood brain barrier (BBB, subsequent edema and neurological deterioration. High mobility group box-1 (HMGB1 has been identified as a key cytokine in the inflammation reaction following TBI. Here, we investigated the therapeutic efficacy of HMGB1 A-box fragment, an antagonist competing with full-length HMGB1 for receptor binding, against TBI. Methods: TBI was induced by controlled cortical impact (CCI in adult male mice. HMGB1 A-box fragment was given intravenously at 2 mg/kg/day for 3 days after CCI. HMGB1 A-box-treated CCI mice were compared with saline-treated CCI mice and sham mice in terms of BBB disruption evaluated by Evan’s blue extravasation, brain edema by brain water content, cell death by propidium iodide staining, inflammation by Western blot and ELISA assay for cytokine productions, as well as neurological functions by the modified Neurological Severity Score, wire grip and beam walking tests. Results: HMGB1 A-box reversed brain damages in the mice following TBI. It significantly reduced brain edema by protecting integrity of the BBB, ameliorated cell degeneration, and decreased expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines released in injured brain after TBI. These cellular and molecular effects were accompanied by improved behavioral performance in TBI mice. Notably, HMGB1 A-box blocked IL-1β-induced HMGB1 release, and preferentially attenuated TLR4, Myd88 and P65 in astrocyte cultures. Conclusion: Our data suggest that HMGB1 is involved in CCI-induced TBI, which can be inhibited by HMGB1 A-box fragment. Therefore, HMGB1 A-box fragment may have therapeutic potential for the secondary brain damages in TBI.

  1. HMGB1 a-Box Reverses Brain Edema and Deterioration of Neurological Function in a Traumatic Brain Injury Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lijun; Wang, Feng; Yang, Liang; Yuan, Yunchao; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Gengshen; Fan, Zhenzeng

    2018-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a complex neurological injury in young adults lacking effective treatment. Emerging evidences suggest that inflammation contributes to the secondary brain injury following TBI, including breakdown of the blood brain barrier (BBB), subsequent edema and neurological deterioration. High mobility group box-1 (HMGB1) has been identified as a key cytokine in the inflammation reaction following TBI. Here, we investigated the therapeutic efficacy of HMGB1 A-box fragment, an antagonist competing with full-length HMGB1 for receptor binding, against TBI. TBI was induced by controlled cortical impact (CCI) in adult male mice. HMGB1 A-box fragment was given intravenously at 2 mg/kg/day for 3 days after CCI. HMGB1 A-box-treated CCI mice were compared with saline-treated CCI mice and sham mice in terms of BBB disruption evaluated by Evan's blue extravasation, brain edema by brain water content, cell death by propidium iodide staining, inflammation by Western blot and ELISA assay for cytokine productions, as well as neurological functions by the modified Neurological Severity Score, wire grip and beam walking tests. HMGB1 A-box reversed brain damages in the mice following TBI. It significantly reduced brain edema by protecting integrity of the BBB, ameliorated cell degeneration, and decreased expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines released in injured brain after TBI. These cellular and molecular effects were accompanied by improved behavioral performance in TBI mice. Notably, HMGB1 A-box blocked IL-1β-induced HMGB1 release, and preferentially attenuated TLR4, Myd88 and P65 in astrocyte cultures. Our data suggest that HMGB1 is involved in CCI-induced TBI, which can be inhibited by HMGB1 A-box fragment. Therefore, HMGB1 A-box fragment may have therapeutic potential for the secondary brain damages in TBI. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Thinking outside the boxes: Using current reading models to assess and treat developmental surface dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Caroline; Cupples, Linda

    2017-03-01

    Improving the reading performance of children with developmental surface dyslexia has proved challenging, with limited generalisation of reading skills typically reported after intervention. The aim of this study was to provide tailored, theoretically motivated intervention to two children with developmental surface dyslexia. Our objectives were to improve their reading performance, and to evaluate the utility of current reading models in therapeutic practice. Detailed reading and cognitive profiles for two male children with developmental surface dyslexia were compared to the results obtained by age-matched control groups. The specific area of single-word reading difficulty for each child was identified within the dual route model (DRM) of reading, following which a theoretically motivated intervention programme was devised. Both children showed significant improvements in single-word reading ability after training, with generalisation effects observed for untrained words. However, the assessment and intervention results also differed for each child, reinforcing the view that the causes and consequences of developmental dyslexia, even within subtypes, are not homogeneous. Overall, the results of the interventions corresponded more closely with the DRM than other current reading models, in that real word reading improved in the absence of enhanced nonword reading for both children.

  3. Estimates of Surface Drifter Trajectories in the Equatorial Atlantic: A Multi-model Ensemble Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Physique des Oceans UMR6523 (CNRS. I B(). IFREMER. IRD). Brest , France C. N. Barron E. Joseph Metzger Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space...AF447 flight from Rio to Paris . The airplane disappeared on June 1st 2009 near 3° N and 31° W, and a large international effort was organized to...to Runge-Kutta trajectory integration. The low- pass filter was accomplished by convolving the original (XiCM velocity fields at each time step and

  4. Thermal Decomposition of 1,5-Dinitrobiuret (DNB): Direct Dynamics Trajectory Simulations and Statistical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-03

    Vibrational frequencies and zero-point energies ( ZPE ) were scaled by a factor of 0.955 and 0.981,20 respectively. The corrected ZPE were added to the...PE) during the trajectory. The oscillations in the PE reflect the vibration of the DNB molecule and the products, including ZPE . The time scale of...Energetics of complexes, TSs, and products are derived from B3LYP/6-31++G** calculations, including ZPE . For TSs, vibrational modes corresponding

  5. Influence of Asthma on the Longitudinal Trajectories of Cigarette Use Behaviors From Adolescence to Adulthood Using Latent Growth Curve Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jisuk Bae

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: While epidemiologic research indicates that the prevalence of risk-taking behaviors including cigarette smoking among young people with asthma is substantial, the longitudinal patterns of cigarette smoking in this vulnerable population have received little attention. The aim of this study was to evaluate differences in the longitudinal trajectories of cigarette use behaviors from adolescence to adulthood between young people with and without asthma. Methods: Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health during the years 1994 to 1995 (Wave I, adolescence, 2001 to 2002 (Wave III, young adulthood, and 2007 to 2008 (Wave IV, adulthood were analyzed (n=12 244. Latent growth curve models were used to examine the longitudinal trajectories of cigarette use behaviors during the transition to adulthood according to asthma status. Results: Regardless of asthma status, the trajectory means of cigarette use behaviors were found to increase, and then slightly decrease from adolescence to adulthood. In total participants, there were no statistically significant differences in initial levels and changes in cigarette use behaviors according to asthma status. However, in select sex and race subgroups (i.e., females and non-whites, former asthmatics showed greater escalation in cigarette use behaviors than did non-asthmatics or current asthmatics. Conclusions: This study indicated that the changing patterns of cigarette use behaviors during the transition to adulthood among young people with asthma are comparable to or even more drastic than those among young people without asthma.

  6. Identifying Latent Trajectories of Personality Disorder Symptom Change: Growth Mixture Modeling in the Longitudinal Study of Personality Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallquist, Michael N.; Lenzenweger, Mark F.

    2013-01-01

    Although previous reports have documented mean-level declines in personality disorder (PD) symptoms over time, little is known about whether personality pathology sometimes emerges among nonsymptomatic adults, or whether rates of change differ qualitatively among symptomatic persons. Our study sought to characterize heterogeneity in the longitudinal course of PD symptoms with the goal of testing for and describing latent trajectories. Participants were 250 young adults selected into two groups using a PD screening measure: those who met diagnostic criteria for a DSM-III-R PD (PPD, n = 129), and those with few PD symptoms (NoPD, n = 121). PD symptoms were assessed three times over a four-year study using semistructured interviews. Total PD symptom counts and symptoms of each DSM-III-R PD were analyzed using growth mixture modeling. In the NoPD group, latent trajectories were characterized by stable, minor symptoms; the rapid or gradual remission of subclinical symptoms; or the emergence of symptoms of Avoidant, Obsessive-Compulsive, or Paranoid PD. In the PPD group, three latent trajectories were evident: rapid symptom remission, slow symptom decline, or a relative absence of symptoms. Rapid remission of PD symptoms was associated with fewer comorbid disorders, lower negative emotionality, and greater positive emotionality and constraint, whereas emergent personality dysfunction was associated with comorbid PD symptoms and lower positive emotionality. In most cases, symptom change for one PD was associated with concomitant changes in other PDs, depressive symptoms, and anxiety. These results indicate that the longitudinal course of PD symptoms is heterogeneous, with distinct trajectories evident for both symptomatic and nonsymptomatic individuals. The prognosis of PD symptoms may be informed by an assessment of personality and comorbid psychopathology. PMID:23231459

  7. Comparison of upconing under vertical and horizontal wells in freshwater lenses: sand-box experiments and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoeckl, Leonard; Stefan, Loeffler; Houben, Georg

    2013-04-01

    Freshwater lenses on islands and in inland areas are often the primary freshwater resource there. The fragile equilibrium between saline and fresh groundwater can be disrupted by excessive pumping, leading to an upward migration of the saline water underneath the well. Sand-box experiments were conducted to compare the upconing at vertical and horizontal wells pumping from a freshwater lens. Results were then compared to numerical simulations. To simulate the cross-section of an "infinite strip island", an acrylic box with a spacing of 5 cm was filled with coarse sand. After saturating the model with degassed saltwater from bottom to top, freshwater recharge was applied from above. By coloring the infiltrating freshwater with different tracer colors using uranine and indigotine we were able to visualize flow paths during pumping. A horizontal and a vertical well were placed at the left and right side of the symmetric island. Both had equal diameter, screen length, depth of placement, and distance to shore. Three increasing pumping rates were applied to each well successively and the electrical conductivity of the abstracted water was continuously measured using a through-flow cell. Results show that no saltwater entered the wells when pumping at the lowest rate. Still, slight saltwater upconing and a shift of the freshwater divide in the island were observed. At the second rate a clear saltwater breakthrough into the vertical well occurred, while the electrical conductivity remained nearly unchanged in the horizontal well. Applying the third (highest) abstraction rate to each of the wells saltwater entered both wells, exceeding drinking water standards in the vertical well. The described behavior indicates the advantage of horizontal over vertical wells on islands and in coastal zones prone to saltwater up-coning. Numerical simulations show similar patterns, even though deviations exist between the second and the third pumping rate, which are under and

  8. Lagrangian Investigation of Auto-ignition in a Hydrogen Jet Flame in a Vitiated Co-flow: Animations of Particle Trajectories in Composition Space from PDF Model Calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Haifeng; Pope, Stephen B.

    2007-01-01

    PDF model calculations have been performed of the Cabra lifted hydrogen flame in a vitiated co-flow. Particle trajectories are extracted from the Lagrangian particle method used to solve the modeled PDF equation. The particle trajectories in the mixture fraction-temperature plane reveal (at successive downstream locations): essentially inert mixing between the cold fuel jet and the hot co-flow; the auto-ignition of very lean particles; and, subsequent mixing and reaction, leading to near-equi...

  9. Beware the black box: investigating the sensitivity of FEA simulations to modelling factors in comparative biomechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W. Walmsley

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Finite element analysis (FEA is a computational technique of growing popularity in the field of comparative biomechanics, and is an easily accessible platform for form-function analyses of biological structures. However, its rapid evolution in recent years from a novel approach to common practice demands some scrutiny in regards to the validity of results and the appropriateness of assumptions inherent in setting up simulations. Both validation and sensitivity analyses remain unexplored in many comparative analyses, and assumptions considered to be ‘reasonable’ are often assumed to have little influence on the results and their interpretation.Here we report an extensive sensitivity analysis where high resolution finite element (FE models of mandibles from seven species of crocodile were analysed under loads typical for comparative analysis: biting, shaking, and twisting. Simulations explored the effect on both the absolute response and the interspecies pattern of results to variations in commonly used input parameters. Our sensitivity analysis focuses on assumptions relating to the selection of material properties (heterogeneous or homogeneous, scaling (standardising volume, surface area, or length, tooth position (front, mid, or back tooth engagement, and linear load case (type of loading for each feeding type.Our findings show that in a comparative context, FE models are far less sensitive to the selection of material property values and scaling to either volume or surface area than they are to those assumptions relating to the functional aspects of the simulation, such as tooth position and linear load case. Results show a complex interaction between simulation assumptions, depending on the combination of assumptions and the overall shape of each specimen. Keeping assumptions consistent between models in an analysis does not ensure that results can be generalised beyond the specific set of assumptions used. Logically, different

  10. Identification of black-box linear models : the case of thermal periodic contact of exhaust valves in internal combustion engines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shojaeefard, M.H.; Fazelpour, M. [Iran Univ. of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Automotive Engineering; Goudarzi, K. [Iran Univ. of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    In internal combustion engines, hot exhaust gases that pass through the exhaust valve lead to high temperatures in the exhaust valve and the valve seat. Heat must be transferred from the exhaust valve to valve seat as they come in contact with each other during the opening and closing cycle in order to avoid damaging the exhaust valve. The heat transfer rate from the valve to valve seat is a function of many factors, including the thermal contact conductance (TCC) between the valve and valve seat. The objective of this study was to experimentally calculate the TCC for six different frequencies in the quasi-steady-state condition and also to obtain a transfer function to estimate the exhaust valve temperature by using black-box models of system identification. Periodic contact was taken into consideration in the study. The paper presented the experimental setup including the loading system, heat and cooling system, temperature measurement system, specimens properties, and data acquisition system. The paper also described the test procedure and experimental results. System identification was also described. It was concluded that the TCC decreased as the frequency of contact increased. The temperature transfer function was calculated by using the system identification method and having the temperatures at both sides of the contact surface. By knowing the temperature of one rod, the temperature of the other rod was estimated with high accuracy. 16 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs.

  11. Response surface modeling of boron adsorption from aqueous solution by vermiculite using different adsorption agents: Box-Behnken experimental design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirçivi, Pelin; Saygılı, Gülhayat Nasün

    2017-07-01

    In this study, a different method was applied for boron removal by using vermiculite as the adsorbent. Vermiculite, which was used in the experiments, was not modified with adsorption agents before boron adsorption using a separate process. Hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (HDTMA) and Gallic acid (GA) were used as adsorption agents for vermiculite by maintaining the solid/liquid ratio at 12.5 g/L. HDTMA/GA concentration, contact time, pH, initial boron concentration, inert electrolyte and temperature effects on boron adsorption were analyzed. A three-factor, three-level Box-Behnken design model combined with response surface method (RSM) was employed to examine and optimize process variables for boron adsorption from aqueous solution by vermiculite using HDTMA and GA. Solution pH (2-12), temperature (25-60 °C) and initial boron concentration (50-8,000 mg/L) were chosen as independent variables and coded x 1 , x 2 and x 3 at three levels (-1, 0 and 1). Analysis of variance was used to test the significance of variables and their interactions with 95% confidence limit (α = 0.05). According to the regression coefficients, a second-order empirical equation was evaluated between the adsorption capacity (q i ) and the coded variables tested (x i ). Optimum values of the variables were also evaluated for maximum boron adsorption by vermiculite-HDTMA (HDTMA-Verm) and vermiculite-GA (GA-Verm).

  12. The effect of plasma actuator on the depreciation of the aerodynamic drag on box model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harinaldi, Budiarso, Julian, James; Rabbani M., N.

    2016-06-01

    Recent active control research advances have provided many benefits some of which in the field of transportation by land, sea as well as by air. Flow engineering by using active control has proven advantages in energy saving significantly. One of the active control equipment that is being developed, especially in the 21st century, is a plasma actuator, with the ability to modify the flow of fluid by the approach of ion particles makes these actuators a very powerful and promising tool. This actuator can be said to be better to the previously active control such as suction, blowing and synthetic jets because it is easier to control, more flexible because it has no moving parts, easy to be manufactured and installed, and consumes a small amount of energy with maximum capability. Plasma actuator itself is the composition of a material composed of copper and a dielectric sheet, where the copper sheets act as an electricity conductor and the dielectric sheet as electricity insulator. Products from the plasma actuators are ion wind which is the result of the suction of free air around the actuator to the plasma zone. This study investigates the ability of plasma actuators in lowering aerodynamic drag which is commonly formed in the models of vehicles by varying the shape of geometry models and the flow speed.

  13. Invariant box-parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, Thomas J.; Wagner, DJ

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing-matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements

  14. Invariant box parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, T.J.; Wagner, D.

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  15. Analysis of a genetically structured variance heterogeneity model using the Box-Cox transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Ye; Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Sorensen, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    of the marginal distribution of the data. To investigate how the scale of measurement affects inferences, the genetically structured heterogeneous variance model is extended to accommodate the family of Box–Cox transformations. Litter size data in rabbits and pigs that had previously been analysed...... in the untransformed scale were reanalysed in a scale equal to the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of the Box–Cox parameter. In the rabbit data, the statistical evidence for a genetic component at the level of the environmental variance is considerably weaker than that resulting from an analysis...... in the original metric. In the pig data, the statistical evidence is stronger, but the coefficient of correlation between additive genetic effects affecting mean and variance changes sign, compared to the results in the untransformed scale. The study confirms that inferences on variances can be strongly affected...

  16. A simple model for correcting the zero point energy problem in classical trajectory simulations of polyatomic molecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.H.; Hase, W.L.; Darling, C.L.

    1989-01-01

    A simple model is proposed for correcting problems with zero point energy in classical trajectory simulations of dynamical processes in polyatomic molecules. The ''problems'' referred to are that classical mechanics allows the vibrational energy in a mode to decrease below its quantum zero point value, and since the total energy is conserved classically this can allow too much energy to pool in other modes. The proposed model introduces hard sphere-like terms in action--angle variables that prevent the vibrational energy in any mode from falling below its zero point value. The algorithm which results is quite simple in terms of the cartesian normal modes of the system: if the energy in a mode k, say, decreases below its zero point value at time t, then at this time the momentum P k for that mode has its sign changed, and the trajectory continues. This is essentially a time reversal for mode k (only exclamation point), and it conserves the total energy of the system. One can think of the model as supplying impulsive ''quantum kicks'' to a mode whose energy attempts to fall below its zero point value, a kind of ''Planck demon'' analogous to a Brownian-like random force. The model is illustrated by application to a model of CH overtone relaxation

  17. Air tight electrical box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pringle, C.G.

    1990-08-14

    An air-impervious electrical box to facilitate air sealing a house comprises an integral, rigid box body having a continuous flange, integral with the body, circumscribing and outwardly extending from the sides of the body. This flange is rearwardly positioned behind the front edges of the sides of the body a predetermined distance so that the electrical box may be secured to framing by nailing through the flange. Drywall is then secured to the frame on top of and adjecent to the flange. Such box eliminates the necessity for solid backing and minimizes passage of air through the box and space between the drywall and the box.

  18. Comparison of Radioecological Processes on Examples of Villages Polluted by 137Cs and 90Sr Appreciated on the Box Model Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matvjejeva, I.V.; Kutlakhmedov, Yu.O.; Isajenko, V.M.; Krivorot'ko, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    Results of the analysis of 137 Cs radionuclides flows as an example of village Galusia of the Volyn region and in ecosystem of village Kotsubinchiki in Ternopil region polluted by 90 Sr are considered. The analysis is made by the method of box models. The block diagrams of ecosystems were created, and the mathematical models by the method of box models are developed. It has allowed estimating ways of formation doses of an internal irradiation at the expense of products of meal for different groups of population - working people, pensioners and children, and prognosis dynamics of these doses for the next years after Chornobyl NPP accident. It was established, that doses in these villages formed by other ways, depending on radionuclide, pastures structure and levels of their pollution

  19. From field data to numerical models: application of the Box-Model to infer the dynamics of PDC generated during the AD 79 eruption of Somma-Vesuvio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadini, Alessandro; Neri, Augusto; Cioni, Raffaello; Bevilacqua, Andrea; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Gurioli, Lucia

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this work is to present a validation procedure for a physical and numerical model of Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) using feedbacks from well-known deposits emplaced by specific single eruptive units. The study is specifically focused on the PDCs generated during the overall famous AD 79 eruption of the Somma-Vesuvio volcano. To this purpose, values of the maximum runout, volumes and Total Grain Size Distributions have been estimated for two eruptive units (i.e. EU3pf and EU4; Cioni et al. 2000) of the AD 79 eruption. These units have been used to define the input volcanological parameters for testing the Box-Model of Dade and Huppert (1995), when reproducing one specific end-member of the complex spectrum of PDCs, that is the more dilute, turbulent part of the PDCs reconstructed in the Somma-Vesuvio record (stratified flows with concentration of solid particles in volume up to about 5%). The Box-Model is a kinematic approach, which calculates the flow density and velocity along time and the kinetic energy of the flow front. This can be compared with the potential energy needed to overcome topographic obstacles to estimate flow invasion across complex topographies. Validation of the model has been performed with respect to: i) the degree of overlapping between inundation areas given by the model and by field data; ii) the thickness of the deposit versus the thickness of the model output with distance; iii) the mass fractions of the different grain size classes with distance in the real deposit versus the model output. Several simulations have been performed considering i) polydisperse (with 10 grain size classes) and monodisperse (with the Mdφ values) systems; ii) a direct version (where the initial volume is released and the invasion area is computed) and an inverse version (where the initial collapsing volume is a function of an inundation area defined by the user); iii) axisymmetrical and asymmetrical collapses. Results allow to obtain first

  20. Forward and Inverse Predictive Model for the Trajectory Tracking Control of a Lower Limb Exoskeleton for Gait Rehabilitation: Simulation modelling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, M. A.; Majeed, A. P. P. A.; Taha, Z.; Alim, M. M.; Baarath, K.

    2018-03-01

    The movement of a lower limb exoskeleton requires a reasonably accurate control method to allow for an effective gait therapy session to transpire. Trajectory tracking is a nontrivial means of passive rehabilitation technique to correct the motion of the patients’ impaired limb. This paper proposes an inverse predictive model that is coupled together with the forward kinematics of the exoskeleton to estimate the behaviour of the system. A conventional PID control system is used to converge the required joint angles based on the desired input from the inverse predictive model. It was demonstrated through the present study, that the inverse predictive model is capable of meeting the trajectory demand with acceptable error tolerance. The findings further suggest the ability of the predictive model of the exoskeleton to predict a correct joint angle command to the system.

  1. The OPALS Plan for Operations: Use of ISS Trajectory and Attitude Models in the OPALS Pointing Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamson, Matthew J.; Oaida, Bogdan; Erkmen, Baris

    2013-01-01

    This paper will discuss the OPALS pointing strategy, focusing on incorporation of ISS trajectory and attitude models to build pointing predictions. Methods to extrapolate an ISS prediction based on past data will be discussed and will be compared to periodically published ISS predictions and Two-Line Element (TLE) predictions. The prediction performance will also be measured against GPS states available in telemetry. The performance of the pointing products will be compared to the allocated values in the OPALS pointing budget to assess compliance with requirements.

  2. Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galanti, Eli; Kaspi, Yohai; Durante, Daniele; Finocchiaro, Stefano; Iess, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

  3. Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galanti, Eli; Kaspi, Yohai [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot (Israel); Durante, Daniele; Finocchiaro, Stefano; Iess, Luciano, E-mail: eli.galanti@weizmann.ac.il [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Meccanica e Aerospaziale, Sapienza Universita di Roma, Rome (Italy)

    2017-07-01

    The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

  4. Spinal high-mobility group box 1 contributes to mechanical allodynia in a rat model of bone cancer pain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, Wei; Wang, Wei; Huang, Jing; Ren, Ning; Wu, Sheng-Xi; Li, Yong-Qi

    2010-01-01

    Mechanisms underlying bone cancer-induced pain are largely unknown. Previous studies indicate that neuroinflammation in the spinal dorsal horn is especially involved. Being first reported as a nonhistone chromosomal protein, high-mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) is now implicated as a mediator of inflammation. We hypothesized that HMGB1 could trigger the release of cytokines in the spinal dorsal horn and contribute to bone cancer pain. To test this hypothesis, we first built a bone cancer pain model induced by intratibal injection of Walker 256 mammary gland carcinoma cells. The structural damage to the tibia was monitored by radiological analysis. The mechanical allodynia was measured and the expression of spinal HMGB1 and IL-1β was evaluated. We observed that inoculation of cancer cells, but not heat-killed cells, induced progressive bone destruction from 9 d to 21 d post inoculation. Behavioral tests demonstrated that the significant nociceptive response in the cancer cells-injected rats emerged on day 9 and this kind of mechanical allodynia lasted at least 21 d following inoculation. Tumor cells inoculation significantly increased HMGB1 expression in the spinal dorsal horn, while intrathecal injecting a neutralizing antibody against HMGB1 showed an effective and reliable anti-allodynia effect with a dose-dependent manner. IL-1β was significantly increased in caner pain rats while intrathecally administration of anti-HMGB1 could decrease IL-1β. Together with previous reports, we predict that bone cancer induces HMGB1 production, enhancing spinal IL-1β expression and thus modulating spinal excitatory synaptic transmission and pain response.

  5. Submarine groundwater discharge to a small estuary estimated from radon and salinity measurements and a box model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Crusius

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Submarine groundwater discharge was quantified by a variety of methods for a 4-day period during the early summer of 2004, in Salt Pond, adjacent to Nauset Marsh, on Cape Cod, USA. Discharge estimates based on radon and salinity took advantage of the presence of the narrow channel connecting Salt Pond to Nauset Marsh, which allowed constructing whole-pond mass balances as water flowed in and out due to tidal fluctuations. The data suggest that less than one quarter of the discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond happened within the pond itself, while three quarters or more of the discharge occurred immediately seaward of the pond, either in the channel or in adjacent regions of Nauset Marsh. Much of this discharge, which maintains high radon activities and low salinity, is carried into the pond during each incoming tide. A box model was used as an aid to understand both the rates and the locations of discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond. The model achieves a reasonable fit to both the salinity and radon data assuming submarine groundwater discharge is fresh and that most of it occurs either in the channel or in adjacent regions of Nauset Marsh. Salinity and radon data, together with seepage meter results, do not rule out discharge of saline groundwater, but suggest either that the saline discharge is at most comparable in volume to the fresh discharge or that it is depleted in radon. The estimated rate of fresh groundwater discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond is 3000-7000 m3 d-1. This groundwater flux estimated from the radon and salinity data is comparable to a value of 3200-4500 m3 d-1 predicted by a recent hydrologic model (Masterson, 2004; Colman and Masterson, 2004, although the model predicts this rate of discharge to the pond whereas our data suggest most of the groundwater bypasses the pond prior to discharge. Additional work is needed to determine if the measured rate of discharge is representative of the long-term average, and to

  6. Quantifying kinematics of purposeful movements to real, imagined, or absent functional objects: implications for modelling trajectories for robot-assisted ADL tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisneski, Kimberly J; Johnson, Michelle J

    2007-03-23

    Robotic therapy is at the forefront of stroke rehabilitation. The Activities of Daily Living Exercise Robot (ADLER) was developed to improve carryover of gains after training by combining the benefits of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) training (motivation and functional task practice with real objects), with the benefits of robot mediated therapy (repeatability and reliability). In combining these two therapy techniques, we seek to develop a new model for trajectory generation that will support functional movements to real objects during robot training. We studied natural movements to real objects and report on how initial reaching movements are affected by real objects and how these movements deviate from the straight line paths predicted by the minimum jerk model, typically used to generate trajectories in robot training environments. We highlight key issues that to be considered in modelling natural trajectories. Movement data was collected as eight normal subjects completed ADLs such as drinking and eating. Three conditions were considered: object absent, imagined, and present. This data was compared to predicted trajectories generated from implementing the minimum jerk model. The deviations in both the plane of the table (XY) and the sagittal plane of torso (XZ) were examined for both reaches to a cup and to a spoon. Velocity profiles and curvature were also quantified for all trajectories. We hypothesized that movements performed with functional task constraints and objects would deviate from the minimum jerk trajectory model more than those performed under imaginary or object absent conditions. Trajectory deviations from the predicted minimum jerk model for these reaches were shown to depend on three variables: object presence, object orientation, and plane of movement. When subjects completed the cup reach their movements were more curved than for the spoon reach. The object present condition for the cup reach showed more curvature than in the object

  7. Quantifying kinematics of purposeful movements to real, imagined, or absent functional objects: Implications for modelling trajectories for robot-assisted ADL tasks**

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wisneski Kimberly J

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Robotic therapy is at the forefront of stroke rehabilitation. The Activities of Daily Living Exercise Robot (ADLER was developed to improve carryover of gains after training by combining the benefits of Activities of Daily Living (ADL training (motivation and functional task practice with real objects, with the benefits of robot mediated therapy (repeatability and reliability. In combining these two therapy techniques, we seek to develop a new model for trajectory generation that will support functional movements to real objects during robot training. We studied natural movements to real objects and report on how initial reaching movements are affected by real objects and how these movements deviate from the straight line paths predicted by the minimum jerk model, typically used to generate trajectories in robot training environments. We highlight key issues that to be considered in modelling natural trajectories. Methods Movement data was collected as eight normal subjects completed ADLs such as drinking and eating. Three conditions were considered: object absent, imagined, and present. This data was compared to predicted trajectories generated from implementing the minimum jerk model. The deviations in both the plane of the table (XY and the saggital plane of torso (XZ were examined for both reaches to a cup and to a spoon. Velocity profiles and curvature were also quantified for all trajectories. Results We hypothesized that movements performed with functional task constraints and objects would deviate from the minimum jerk trajectory model more than those performed under imaginary or object absent conditions. Trajectory deviations from the predicted minimum jerk model for these reaches were shown to depend on three variables: object presence, object orientation, and plane of movement. When subjects completed the cup reach their movements were more curved than for the spoon reach. The object present condition for the cup

  8. Linking community, parenting, and depressive symptom trajectories: testing resilience models of adolescent agency based on race/ethnicity and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amanda L; Merten, Michael J

    2014-09-01

    Family stress models illustrate how communities affect youth outcomes through effects on parents and studies consistently show the enduring effects of early community context. The present study takes a different approach identifying human agency during adolescence as a potentially significant promotive factor mediating the relationship between community, parenting, and mental health. While agency is an important part of resilience, its longitudinal effects are unknown, particularly based on gender and race/ethnicity. The purpose of this research was to model the long-term effects of community structural adversity and social resources as predictors of adolescent depressive symptom trajectories via indirect effects of parental happiness, parent-child relationships, and human agency. Latent growth analyses were conducted with 1,796 participants (53% female; 56% White) across four waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health spanning adolescence (Wave 1) through adulthood (Wave 4). The results identified agency as an important promotive factor during adolescence with long-term mental health benefits, but only for White and male participants. For these individuals, community social resources and the quality of the parent-child relationship were related to higher levels of agency and more positive mental health trajectories. Although community social resources similarly benefitted parenting and agency among females and non-White participants, there were no significant links between agency and depressive symptoms for these youth. The results suggest that agency remains an important, but poorly understood concept and additional work is necessary to continue unpacking its meaning for diverse groups of youth.

  9. A box model study on photochemical interactions between VOCs and reactive halogen species in the marine boundary layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Toyota

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A new chemical scheme is developed for the multiphase photochemical box model SEAMAC (size-SEgregated Aerosol model for Marine Air Chemistry to investigate photochemical interactions between volatile organic compounds (VOCs and reactive halogen species in the marine boundary layer (MBL. Based primarily on critically evaluated kinetic and photochemical rate parameters as well as a protocol for chemical mechanism development, the new scheme has achieved a near-explicit description of oxidative degradation of up to C3-hydrocarbons (CH4, C2H6, C3H8, C2H4, C3H6, and C2H2 initiated by reactions with OH radicals, Cl- and Br-atoms, and O3. Rate constants and product yields for reactions involving halogen species are taken from the literature where available, but the majority of them need to be estimated. In particular, addition reactions of halogen atoms with alkenes will result in forming halogenated organic intermediates, whose photochemical loss rates are carefully evaluated in the present work. Model calculations with the new chemical scheme reveal that the oceanic emissions of acetaldehyde (CH3CHO and alkenes (especially C3H6 are important factors for regulating reactive halogen chemistry in the MBL by promoting the conversion of Br atoms into HBr or more stable brominated intermediates in the organic form. The latter include brominated hydroperoxides, bromoacetaldehyde, and bromoacetone, which sequester bromine from a reactive inorganic pool. The total mixing ratio of brominated organic species thus produced is likely to reach 10-20% or more of that of inorganic gaseous bromine species over wide regions over the ocean. The reaction between Br atoms and C2H2 is shown to be unimportant for determining the degree of bromine activation in the remote MBL. These results imply that reactive halogen chemistry can mediate a link between the oceanic emissions of VOCs and the behaviors of compounds that are sensitive to halogen chemistry such as dimethyl

  10. Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Mark Ford; Andrew M. Evans; Richard H. Odom; Jane L. Rodrigue; Christine A. Kelly; Nicole Abaid; Corinne A. Diggins; Douglas Newcomb

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy...

  11. Heterogeneity in Trajectories of Child Maltreatment Severity: A Two-Part Growth Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yampolskaya, Svetlana; Greenbaum, Paul E.; Brown, C. Hendricks; Armstrong, Mary I.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the trajectories of maltreatment severity and substantiation over a 24-month period among children (N = 82,396) with repeated maltreatment reports. Findings revealed two different longitudinal patterns. The first pattern, Elevated Severity, showed a higher level of maltreatment during the initial incident and increased maltreatment severity during subsequent incidents but the substantiation rates for this class decreased over time. The second pattern, Lowered Severity, showed a much lower level of severity, but the likelihood of substantiation increased over time. The Elevated Severity class was comprised of children with an elevated risk profile due to both individual and contextual risk factors including older age, female gender, caregivers’ substance use problems, and a higher number of previous maltreatment reports. Implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:26300381

  12. Box graphs and resolutions I

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    Andreas P. Braun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  13. Injury risk in professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bledsoe, Gregory H; Li, Guohu; Levy, Fred

    2005-10-01

    Although a popular endeavor, boxing has fallen under increased scrutiny because of its association with traumatic brain injury. However, few studies have investigated the overall epidemiology of boxing injuries from representative samples, and no study has ever documented the incidence of injuries in female boxers. This study is a review of professional boxing data from the state of Nevada from September 2001 through March 2003. Medical and outcome data for all professional boxing matches occurring in Nevada between September 2001 and March 2003 (n = 524 matches) were analyzed on the basis of a pair-matched, case-control design. Cases were boxers who received an injury during the boxing matches. Boxers who were not injured served as control subjects. Both conditional and unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors for injury. The overall incidence rate of injury was 17.1 per 100 boxer-matches, or 3.4 per 100 boxer-rounds. Facial laceration accounted for 51% of all injuries, followed by hand injury (17%), eye injury (14%), and nose injury (5%). Male boxers were significantly more likely than female boxers to receive injuries (3.6 versus 1.2 per 100 boxer-rounds, P = 0.01). Male boxing matches also ended in knockouts and technical knockouts more often than did female matches (P boxing matches is high, particularly among male boxers. Superficial facial lacerations are the most common injury reported. Male boxers have a higher rate of knockout and technical knockouts than female boxers. Further research is necessary to determine the outcomes of injury, particularly the long-term neurologic outcome differences between sexes.

  14. Effective electric fields along realistic DTI-based neural trajectories for modelling the stimulation mechanisms of TMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Geeter, N; Crevecoeur, G; Dupré, L; Leemans, A

    2015-01-01

    In transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), an applied alternating magnetic field induces an electric field in the brain that can interact with the neural system. It is generally assumed that this induced electric field is the crucial effect exciting a certain region of the brain. More specifically, it is the component of this field parallel to the neuron’s local orientation, the so-called effective electric field, that can initiate neuronal stimulation. Deeper insights on the stimulation mechanisms can be acquired through extensive TMS modelling. Most models study simple representations of neurons with assumed geometries, whereas we embed realistic neural trajectories computed using tractography based on diffusion tensor images. This way of modelling ensures a more accurate spatial distribution of the effective electric field that is in addition patient and case specific. The case study of this paper focuses on the single pulse stimulation of the left primary motor cortex with a standard figure-of-eight coil. Including realistic neural geometry in the model demonstrates the strong and localized variations of the effective electric field between the tracts themselves and along them due to the interplay of factors such as the tract’s position and orientation in relation to the TMS coil, the neural trajectory and its course along the white and grey matter interface. Furthermore, the influence of changes in the coil orientation is studied. Investigating the impact of tissue anisotropy confirms that its contribution is not negligible. Moreover, assuming isotropic tissues lead to errors of the same size as rotating or tilting the coil with 10 degrees. In contrast, the model proves to be less sensitive towards the not well-known tissue conductivity values. (paper)

  15. System identification methodology for grate modeling. Black- and grey-box models; Metodik foer modellering av foerbraenningsrost med systemidentifiering. Svart- och graalaademodeller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundgren, Astrid; Sjoeberg, Jonas; Ramstroem Erik; Sunnerstam, Fredrik

    2004-10-01

    The possibility to use system identification to model combustion on a grate was studied. The identification was based on collected data from the combustion unit, data which was used to determine the model parameters. A number of step response experiments have been performed, for instance with varying pusher speed and air supply. No clear response was seen and thus it is concluded that the system is poorly excited. The initial requirements on the input parameters were not met. For instance many of the input parameters are co-varying with each other which limits the possibilities to single out the influence from each parameter on the combustion process. This will obstruct the identification procedure. In an attempt to improve the model, and compensate for the poor data, theoretical insights, i.e. a mass- and heat balances, have been included. Two model approaches were suggested, one based on the measured grate temperature, and another based on the fuel bed extension on the grate (particularly the position of the burn-out of the fuel). The first approach was implemented in an existing grey-box identification software MoCaVa, but the model output was concluded to be in poor agreement with measured data. The second approach was never tested since it could not be implemented in the MoCaVa software due to a discontinuous optimisation criteria. Instead a linear model based on the grate temperature has been used for comparison. In this model, it was shown that the response time of the grate temperature signal is significantly shorter than the fuel transportation time on the grate, thus a change in grate temperature is not only a result of the fuel transport. Radiation and conduction of heat to the grate is influencing the grate temperature and needs to be included in future modeling work. A strategy in order to separate the response from each signal during normal operation have been suggested. In future work the model need to be identified by exciting the system further and

  16. Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

    In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the

  17. Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cevahir Kilic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of sea surface temperature (SST anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east, with increasing (decreasing SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

  18. A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment--a North American case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao-Zhen; Chen, Zhi

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO(2), SO(2) and PM(2.5)) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

  19. Galileo's Trajectory with Mild Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groetsch, C. W.

    2012-01-01

    An aspect of Galileo's classical trajectory that persists in a simple resistance model is noted. The resistive model provides a case study for the classroom analysis of limiting behaviour of an implicitly defined function. (Contains 1 note.)

  20. 3-D trajectory model for MDT using micro-spheres implanted within large blood vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choomphon-anomakhun, Natthaphon; Natenapit, Mayuree

    2016-09-01

    Implant assisted magnetic drug targeting (IA-MDT) using ferromagnetic spherical targets implanted within large blood vessels and subjected to a uniform externally applied magnetic field (H0) has been investigated and reported for the first time. The capture areas (As) of magnetic drug carrier particles (MDCPs) were determined from the analysis of particle trajectories simulated from equations of motion. Then, the effects of various parameters, such as types of ferromagnetic materials in the targets and MDCPs, blood flow rates, mass fraction of the ferromagnetic material in the MDCPs, average radii of MDCPs (Rp) and the strength of H0 on the As were obtained. Furthermore, the effects of saturation magnetization of the ferromagnetic materials in the MDCPs and within the targets on the As were analyzed. After this, the suitable strengths of H0 and Rp for IA-MDT designs were reported. Dimensionless As, ranging from 2 to 7, was obtained with Rp ranging from 500 to 2500 nm, μ0H0 less than 0.8 T and a blood flow rate of 0.1 m s-1. The target-MDCP materials considered are iron-iron, iron-magnetite and SS409-magnetite, respectively.

  1. Geometrical properties of systems with spiral trajectories in R^3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luka Korkut

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We study a class of second-order nonautonomous differential equations, and the corresponding planar and spatial systems, from the geometrical point of view. The oscillatory behavior of solutions at infinity is measured by oscillatory and phase dimensions, The oscillatory dimension is defined as the box dimension of the reflected solution near the origin, while the phase dimension is defined as the box dimension of a trajectory of the planar system in the phase plane. Using the phase dimension of the second-order equation we compute the box dimension of a spiral trajectory of the spatial system. This phase dimension of the second-order equation is connected to the asymptotic of the associated Poincare map. Also, the box dimension of a trajectory of the reduced normal form with one eigenvalue equals zero, and a pair of pure imaginary eigenvalues is computed when limit cycles bifurcate from the origin.

  2. Black-box modeling to estimate tissue temperature during radiofrequency catheter cardiac ablation: feasibility study on an agar phantom model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blasco-Gimenez, Ramón; Lequerica, Juan L; Herrero, Maria; Hornero, Fernando; Berjano, Enrique J

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this work was to study linear deterministic models to predict tissue temperature during radiofrequency cardiac ablation (RFCA) by measuring magnitudes such as electrode temperature, power and impedance between active and dispersive electrodes. The concept involves autoregressive models with exogenous input (ARX), which is a particular case of the autoregressive moving average model with exogenous input (ARMAX). The values of the mode parameters were determined from a least-squares fit of experimental data. The data were obtained from radiofrequency ablations conducted on agar models with different contact pressure conditions between electrode and agar (0 and 20 g) and different flow rates around the electrode (1, 1.5 and 2 L min −1 ). Half of all the ablations were chosen randomly to be used for identification (i.e. determination of model parameters) and the other half were used for model validation. The results suggest that (1) a linear model can be developed to predict tissue temperature at a depth of 4.5 mm during RF cardiac ablation by using the variables applied power, impedance and electrode temperature; (2) the best model provides a reasonably accurate estimate of tissue temperature with a 60% probability of achieving average errors better than 5 °C; (3) substantial errors (larger than 15 °C) were found only in 6.6% of cases and were associated with abnormal experiments (e.g. those involving the displacement of the ablation electrode) and (4) the impact of measuring impedance on the overall estimate is negligible (around 1 °C)

  3. Response surface methodology (RSM) modeling of microwave-assisted extraction of natural dye from Swietenia mahagony: A comparation between Box-Behnken and central composite design method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusuma, Heri Septya; Sudrajat, Robby Ginanjar Margo; Susanto, David Febrilliant; Gala, Selfina; Mahfud, Mahfud

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand of non-toxic and environmentally friendly dyes, colorants that come from natural source have risen as an alternative of sintetic poisonous dyes. In this research natural dye from S. mahagony was extracted using microwave-assisted extraction method under different operating condition such as extraction time (10-30min), plant material to solvent ratio (0.03-0.05g/mL) and microwave power level (100-380 watt). Box-Behnken method and central composite design (CCD) method is widely used for modeling response surface methodology (RSM), both methods show good prediction performance. In this study response surface methodology was performed to optimize the process, both methods were performed by the help Statgraphics Centurion 16 to evaluate the effects of different operating parameters. Finally, both methods were statistically compared by root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute average deviation (AAD) based on validation data set. Further, result suggests that CCD has better performance as compared to Box-Behnken method. The maximum yield obtained for Box-Behnken is 3.7647% (380 watt, 0.0339g/mL, 28.8899min) and 3.7506% (379.986 watt, 0.0378g/mL, 30min) for central composite design method.

  4. Methods for control over learning individual trajectory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsel, A. A.; Cherniaeva, N. V.

    2015-09-01

    The article discusses models, methods and algorithms of determining student's optimal individual educational trajectory. A new method of controlling the learning trajectory has been developed as a dynamic model of learning trajectory control, which uses score assessment to construct a sequence of studied subjects.

  5. New constraints on neutron star models of gamma-ray bursts. II - X-ray observations of three gamma-ray burst error boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, M.; Hurley, K.; Pizzichini, G.; Gottardi, M.

    1991-01-01

    Exosat observations are presented for 3 gamma-ray-burst error boxes, one of which may be associated with an optical flash. No point sources were detected at the 3-sigma level. A comparison with Einstein data (Pizzichini et al., 1986) is made for the March 5b, 1979 source. The data are interpreted in the framework of neutron star models and derive upper limits for the neutron star surface temperatures, accretion rates, and surface densities of an accretion disk. Apart from the March 5b, 1979 source, consistency is found with each model.

  6. The Effects of the Green House Nursing Home Model on ADL Function Trajectory: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    YOON, Ju Young; BROWN, Roger L.; BOWERS, Barbara J.; SHARKEY, Siobhan S.; HORN, Susan D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Growing attention in the past few decades has focused on improving care quality and quality of life for nursing home residents. Many traditional nursing homes have attempted to transform themselves to become more homelike emphasizing individualized care. This trend is referred to as nursing home culture change in the U.S. A promising culture change nursing home model, the Green House (GH) nursing home model, has shown positive psychological outcomes. However, little is known about whether the GH nursing home model has positive effects on physical function compared to traditional nursing homes. Objectives To examine the longitudinal effects of the GH nursing home model by comparing change patterns of ADL function over time between GH home residents and traditional nursing home residents. Design A retrospective longitudinal study. Settings Four GH organizations (nine GH units and four traditional units). Participants A total of 242 residents (93 GH residents and 149 traditional home residents) who had stayed in the nursing home at least six months from admission. Methods The outcome was ADL function, and the main independent variable was the facility type in which the resident stayed: a GH or traditional unit. Age, gender, comorbidity score, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms at baseline were controlled. All of these measures were from a minimum dataset. Growth curve modeling and growth mixture modeling were employed in this study for longitudinal analyses. Results The mean ADL function showed deterioration over time, and the rates of deterioration between GH and traditional home residents were not different over time. Four different ADL function trajectories were identified for 18 months, but there was no statistical difference in the likelihood of being in one of the four trajectory classes between the two groups. Conclusions Although GH nursing homes are considered to represent an innovative model changing the nursing home environment into more

  7. The effects of the Green House nursing home model on ADL function trajectory: A retrospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Ju Young; Brown, Roger L; Bowers, Barbara J; Sharkey, Siobhan S; Horn, Susan D

    2016-01-01

    Growing attention in the past few decades has focused on improving care quality and quality of life for nursing home residents. Many traditional nursing homes have attempted to transform themselves to become more homelike emphasizing individualized care. This trend is referred to as nursing home culture change in the U.S. A promising culture change nursing home model, the Green House nursing home model, has shown positive psychological outcomes. However, little is known about whether the Green House nursing home model has positive effects on physical function compared to traditional nursing homes. To examine the longitudinal effects of the Green House nursing home model by comparing change patterns of activities of daily living function over time between Green House home residents and traditional nursing home residents. A retrospective longitudinal study. Four Green House organizations (nine Green House units and four traditional units). A total of 242 residents (93 Green House residents and 149 traditional home residents) who had stayed in the nursing home at least 6 months from admission. The outcome was activities of daily living function, and the main independent variable was the facility type in which the resident stayed: a Green House or traditional unit. Age, gender, comorbidity score, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms at baseline were controlled. All of these measures were from a minimum dataset. Growth curve modeling and growth mixture modeling were employed in this study for longitudinal analyses. The mean activities of daily living function showed deterioration over time, and the rates of deterioration between Green House and traditional home residents were not different over time. Four different activities of daily living function trajectories were identified for 18 months, but there was no statistical difference in the likelihood of being in one of the four trajectory classes between the two groups. Although Green House nursing homes are

  8. Identifying developmental trajectories of body mass index in childhood using latent class growth (mixture modelling: associations with dietary, sedentary and physical activity behaviors: a longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike Koning

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To date, many epidemiologic studies examining associations between obesity and dietary and sedentary/physical activity behaviors have focused on assessing Body Mass Index (BMI at one point in time. Recent developments in statistical techniques make it possible to study the potential heterogeneity in the development of BMI during childhood by identifying distinct subpopulations characterized by distinct developmental trajectories. Using Latent Class Growth (Mixture Modelling (LCGMM techniques we aimed to identify BMI trajectories in childhood and to examine associations between these distinct trajectories and dietary, sedentary and physical activity behaviors. Methods This longitudinal study explored BMI standard deviation score (SDS trajectories in a sample of 613 children from 4 to 12 years of age. In 2006, 2009 and 2012 information on children’s health related behaviors was obtained by parental questionnaires, and children’s height and weight were measured. Associations with behaviors were investigated with logistic regression models. Results We identified two BMI SDS trajectories; a decreasing BMI SDS trajectory (n = 416; 68 % and an increasing BMI SDS trajectory (n = 197; 32 %. The increasing BMI SDS trajectory consisted of more participants of lower socio-economic status (SES and of non-western ethnicity. Maternal overweight status was associated with being in the increasing BMI SDS trajectory at both baseline and follow-up six years later (2006: Odds Ratio (OR, 2.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI 1.9 to 4.3; 2012 OR, 1.8; 95 % CI 1.2 to 2.6. The increasing BMI SDS trajectory was associated with the following behaviors; drinking sugared drinks > 3 glasses per day, participation in organized sports  2 h per day, though participation in organized sports at follow-up was the only significant result. Conclusions Our results indicate the importance of healthy lifestyle behaviors at a young age, and

  9. Using Urban Landscape Trajectories to Develop a Multi-Temporal Land Cover Database to Support Ecological Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Alberti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting changes in land cover have myriad impacts on ecological systems. Monitoring these changes across large spatial extents and long time spans requires synoptic remotely sensed data with an appropriate temporal sequence. We developed a multi-temporal land cover dataset for a six-county area surrounding the Seattle, Washington State, USA, metropolitan region. Land cover maps for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were developed from Landsat TM images through a combination of spectral unmixing, image segmentation, multi-season imagery, and supervised classification approaches to differentiate an initial nine land cover classes. We then used ancillary GIS layers and temporal information to define trajectories of land cover change through multiple updating and backdating rules and refined our land cover classification for each date into 14 classes. We compared the accuracy of the initial approach with the landscape trajectory modifications and determined that the use of landscape trajectory rules increased our ability to differentiate several classes including bare soil (separated into cleared for development, agriculture, and clearcut forest and three intensities of urban. Using the temporal dataset, we found that between 1986 and 2002, urban land cover increased from 8 to 18% of our study area, while lowland deciduous and mixed forests decreased from 21 to 14%, and grass and agriculture decreased from 11 to 8%. The intensity of urban land cover increased with 252 km2 in Heavy Urban in 1986 increasing to 629 km2 by 2002. The ecological systems that are present in this region were likely significantly altered by these changes in land cover. Our results suggest that multi-temporal (i.e., multiple years and multiple seasons within years Landsat data are an economical means to quantify land cover and land cover change across large and highly heterogeneous urbanizing landscapes. Our data, and similar temporal land cover change

  10. Linear spline multilevel models for summarising childhood growth trajectories: A guide to their application using examples from five birth cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Laura D; Tilling, Kate; Matijasevich, Alicia; Petherick, Emily S; Santos, Ana Cristina; Fairley, Lesley; Wright, John; Santos, Iná S; Barros, Aluísio Jd; Martin, Richard M; Kramer, Michael S; Bogdanovich, Natalia; Matush, Lidia; Barros, Henrique; Lawlor, Debbie A

    2016-10-01

    Childhood growth is of interest in medical research concerned with determinants and consequences of variation from healthy growth and development. Linear spline multilevel modelling is a useful approach for deriving individual summary measures of growth, which overcomes several data issues (co-linearity of repeat measures, the requirement for all individuals to be measured at the same ages and bias due to missing data). Here, we outline the application of this methodology to model individual trajectories of length/height and weight, drawing on examples from five cohorts from different generations and different geographical regions with varying levels of economic development. We describe the unique features of the data within each cohort that have implications for the application of linear spline multilevel models, for example, differences in the density and inter-individual variation in measurement occasions, and multiple sources of measurement with varying measurement error. After providing example Stata syntax and a suggested workflow for the implementation of linear spline multilevel models, we conclude with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the linear spline approach compared with other growth modelling methods such as fractional polynomials, more complex spline functions and other non-linear models. © The Author(s) 2013.

  11. Specification Search for Identifying the Correct Mean Trajectory in Polynomial Latent Growth Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjung; Kwok, Oi-Man; Yoon, Myeongsun; Willson, Victor; Lai, Mark H. C.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the optimal strategy for model specification search under the latent growth modeling (LGM) framework, specifically on searching for the correct polynomial mean or average growth model when there is no a priori hypothesized model in the absence of theory. In this simulation study, the effectiveness of different starting…

  12. Monte Carlo particle-trajectory models for neutral cometary gases. I. Models and equations. II. The spatial morphology of the Lyman-alpha coma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combi, M.R.; Smyth, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    The mathematical derivations of various methods employed in the Monte Carlo particle-trajectory model (MCPTM) are presented, and the application of the MCPTM to the calculation of the photochemical heating of the inner coma through the partial thermalization of cometary hydrogen atoms produced by the photodissociation of water is discussed. This model is then used to explain the observed morphology of the spatially extended Ly-alpha comas of comets. The rocket and Skylab images of the Ly-alpha coma of Comet Kohoutek are examined. 90 references

  13. Mathematical Modelling and the Learning Trajectory: Tools to Support the Teaching of Linear Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárcamo Bahamonde, Andrea Dorila; Fortuny Aymemí, Josep Maria; Gómez i Urgellés, Joan Vicenç

    2017-01-01

    In this article we present a didactic proposal for teaching linear algebra based on two compatible theoretical models: emergent models and mathematical modelling. This proposal begins with a problematic situation related to the creation and use of secure passwords, which leads students toward the construction of the concepts of spanning set and…

  14. Kinetic box models for the uptake of radionuclides and heavy metals by suspended particulate matter: equivalence between models and its implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barros, H.; Abril, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    In recent years an increasing experimental effort has been paid to the study of the sorption process of radionuclides and heavy metals by particulate matter in aquatic environments. This has led to the development of different kinetic box models. Most of them are variations of two basic approaches: one containing several (up to three) parallel reactions while the other involves consecutive reactions. All the reactions are reversible (irreversibility is contained as a particular case) with concentration independent coefficients. The present work provides analytical solutions and demonstrates that both approaches are mathematically equivalent. That is, both models produce the same analytical solution for the uptake curve (time course of the concentrations in the dissolved phase), which is illustrated using literature data. This result unifies the description of the observed behaviour, but it brings up the question of the physical meaning of the involved coefficients. Finally, the mathematical relationship developed here serves to discuss some limitations found in recent attempts in literature devoted to distinguish the actual uptake mechanism

  15. CONDUCTING AND ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL BOX TEST OF RETAINING WALL MODELS WITHOUT PILES AND ON THE PILE FOUNDATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Lisnevskyi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Taking into consideration that the bearing capacity of the foundation may be insufficient, in the study it is assumed that pile foundation can be used to reduce the impact of the construction of new retaining structures on roads and railways near the existing buildings or in areas of dense urban development and ensure the stability of the foundation. To reduce the volume of excavation it is necessary to choose the economic structure of the retaining wall. To do this, one should explore stress-strain state (SSS of the retaining walls, to develop methods to improve their strength and stability, as well as to choose the most appropriate method of their analysis. Methodology. In the design of retaining walls foundation mat and piles are considered as independent elements. Since the combined effect of the retaining wall, piles and foundation mat as well as the effect of soil or rock foundation on the structure are considered not fully, so there are some limitations in the existing design techniques. To achieve the purpose the box tests of retaining walls models without piles and with piles for studying their interaction with the surrounding soil massif were conducted. Findings. Laboratory simulation of complex systems «surrounding soil – retaining wall – pile» was carried out and on the basis of the box test results were analyzed strains and its main parameters of the stress-strain state. Analysis of the results showed that the structure of a retaining wall with piles is steady and stable. Originality. So far, in Ukraine has not been carried out similar experimental box tests with models of retaining walls in such combinations. In the article has been presented unique photos and test results, as well as their analysis. Practical value. Using the methodology of experimental tests of the retaining wall models with piles and without them gives a wider opportunity to study stress-strain state of such structures.

  16. A unified computational model of the development of object unity, object permanence, and occluded object trajectory perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, A; Triesch, J

    2010-12-01

    The perception of the unity of objects, their permanence when out of sight, and the ability to perceive continuous object trajectories even during occlusion belong to the first and most important capacities that infants have to acquire. Despite much research a unified model of the development of these abilities is still missing. Here we make an attempt to provide such a unified model. We present a recurrent artificial neural network that learns to predict the motion of stimuli occluding each other and that develops representations of occluded object parts. It represents completely occluded, moving objects for several time steps and successfully predicts their reappearance after occlusion. This framework allows us to account for a broad range of experimental data. Specifically, the model explains how the perception of object unity develops, the role of the width of the occluders, and it also accounts for differences between data for moving and stationary stimuli. We demonstrate that these abilities can be acquired by learning to predict the sensory input. The model makes specific predictions and provides a unifying framework that has the potential to be extended to other visual event categories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  18. A local leaky-box model for the local stellar surface density-gas surface density-gas phase metallicity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guangtun Ben; Barrera-Ballesteros, Jorge K.; Heckman, Timothy M.; Zakamska, Nadia L.; Sánchez, Sebastian F.; Yan, Renbin; Brinkmann, Jonathan

    2017-07-01

    We revisit the relation between the stellar surface density, the gas surface density and the gas-phase metallicity of typical disc galaxies in the local Universe with the SDSS-IV/MaNGA survey, using the star formation rate surface density as an indicator for the gas surface density. We show that these three local parameters form a tight relationship, confirming previous works (e.g. by the PINGS and CALIFA surveys), but with a larger sample. We present a new local leaky-box model, assuming star-formation history and chemical evolution is localized except for outflowing materials. We derive closed-form solutions for the evolution of stellar surface density, gas surface density and gas-phase metallicity, and show that these parameters form a tight relation independent of initial gas density and time. We show that, with canonical values of model parameters, this predicted relation match the observed one well. In addition, we briefly describe a pathway to improving the current semi-analytic models of galaxy formation by incorporating the local leaky-box model in the cosmological context, which can potentially explain simultaneously multiple properties of Milky Way-type disc galaxies, such as the size growth and the global stellar mass-gas metallicity relation.

  19. Modeling control of eye orientation in three dimensions. I. Role of muscle pulleys in determining saccadic trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raphan, T

    1998-05-01

    This study evaluates the effects of muscle axis shifts on the performance of a vector velocity-position integrator in the CNS. Earlier models of the oculomotor plant assumed that the muscle axes remained fixed relative to the head as the eye rotated into secondary and tertiary eye positions. Under this assumption, the vector integrator model generates torsional transients as the eye moves from secondary to tertiary positions of fixation. The torsional transient represents an eye movement response to a spatial mismatch between the torque axes that remain fixed in the head and the displacement plane that changes by half the angle of the change in eye orientation. When muscle axis shifts were incorporated into the model, the torque axes were closer to the displacement plane at each eye orientation throughout the trajectory, and torsional transients were reduced dramatically. Their size and dynamics were close to reported data. It was also shown that when the muscle torque axes were rotated by 50% of the eye rotation, there was no torsional transient and Listing's law was perfectly obeyed. When muscle torque axes rotated >50%, torsional transients reversed direction compared with what occurred for muscle axis shifts of law is implemented by the oculomotor plant subject to a two-dimensional command signal that is confined to the pitch-yaw plane, having zero torsion. Saccades that bring the eye to orientations outside Listing's plane could easily be corrected by a roll pulse that resets the roll state of the velocity-position integrator to zero. This would be a simple implementation of the corrective controller suggested by Van Opstal and colleagues. The model further indicates that muscle axis shifts together with the torque orientation relationship for tissue surrounding the eye and Newton's laws of motion form a sufficient plant model to explain saccadic trajectories and periods of fixation when driven by a vector command confined to the pitch-yaw plane. This implies

  20. Box-Behnken design in modeling of solid-phase tea waste extraction for the removal of uranium from water samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khajeh, Mostafa; Jahanbin, Elham; Ghaffari-Moghaddam, Mansour; Moghaddam, Zahra Safaei; Bohlooli, Mousa

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the solid-phase tea waste procedure was used for separation, preconcentration and determination of uranium from water samples by UV-Vis spectrophotometer. In addition, Box-Behnken experimental design was employed to investigated the influence of six variables including pH, mass of adsorbent, eluent volume, amount of 1-(2-pyridylazo)-2-naphthol (PAN); and sample and eluent flow rates on the extraction of analyte. High determination coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.972 and adjusted-R 2 of 0.943 showed the satisfactory adjustment of the polynomial regression model. This method was used for the extraction of uranium from real water samples.

  1. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data...

  2. Math in the Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeYoung, Mary J.

    2009-01-01

    This article describes how to make an origami paper box and explores the algebra, geometry, and other mathematics that unfolds. A set of origami steps that transforms the paper into an open box can hold mathematical surprises for both students and teachers. An origami lesson can engage students in an open-ended exploration of the relationship…

  3. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  4. Trajectory grouping structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maike Buchin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The collective motion of a set of moving entities like people, birds, or other animals, is characterized by groups arising, merging, splitting, and ending. Given the trajectories of these entities, we define and model a structure that captures all of such changes using the Reeb graph, a concept from topology. The trajectory grouping structure has three natural parameters that allow more global views of the data in group size, group duration, and entity inter-distance. We prove complexity bounds on the maximum number of maximal groups that can be present, and give algorithms to compute the grouping structure efficiently. We also study how the trajectory grouping structure can be made robust, that is, how brief interruptions of groups can be disregarded in the global structure, adding a notion of persistence to the structure. Furthermore, we showcase the results of experiments using data generated by the NetLogo flocking model and from the Starkey project. The Starkey data describe the movement of elk, deer, and cattle. Although there is no ground truth for the grouping structure in this data, the experiments show that the trajectory grouping structure is plausible and has the desired effects when changing the essential parameters. Our research provides the first complete study of trajectory group evolvement, including combinatorial,algorithmic, and experimental results.

  5. A minimal unified model of disease trajectories captures hallmarks of multiple sclerosis

    KAUST Repository

    Kannan, Venkateshan

    2017-03-29

    Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease targeting the central nervous system (CNS) causing demyelination and neurodegeneration leading to accumulation of neurological disability. Here we present a minimal, computational model involving the immune system and CNS that generates the principal subtypes of the disease observed in patients. The model captures several key features of MS, especially those that distinguish the chronic progressive phase from that of the relapse-remitting. In addition, a rare subtype of the disease, progressive relapsing MS naturally emerges from the model. The model posits the existence of two key thresholds, one in the immune system and the other in the CNS, that separate dynamically distinct behavior of the model. Exploring the two-dimensional space of these thresholds, we obtain multiple phases of disease evolution and these shows greater variation than the clinical classification of MS, thus capturing the heterogeneity that is manifested in patients.

  6. Wireless Positioning Based on a Segment-Wise Linear Approach for Modeling the Target Trajectory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueiras, Joao; Pedersen, Troels; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

    2008-01-01

    Positioning solutions in infrastructure-based wireless networks generally operate by exploiting the channel information of the links between the Wireless Devices and fixed networking Access Points. The major challenge of such solutions is the modeling of both the noise properties of the channel...... measurements and the user mobility patterns. One class of typical human being movement patterns is the segment-wise linear approach, which is studied in this paper. Current tracking solutions, such as the Constant Velocity model, hardly handle such segment-wise linear patterns. In this paper we propose...... a segment-wise linear model, called the Drifting Points model. The model results in an increased performance when compared with traditional solutions....

  7. Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, N.; Huang, H.; Duarte, M.; Zhang, J.

    2016-06-01

    Social media has developed extremely fast in metropolises in recent years resulting in more and more rumors disturbing our daily lives. Knowing the characteristics of rumor propagation in metropolises can help the government make efficient rumor refutation plans. In this paper, we established a dynamic spatio-temporal comprehensive risk assessment model for rumor propagation based on an improved 8-state ICSAR model (Ignorant, Information Carrier, Information Spreader, Advocate, Removal), large personal activity trajectory data, and governmental rumor refutation (anti-rumor) scenarios. Combining these relevant data with the 'big' traffic data on the use of subways, buses, and taxis, we simulated daily oral communications among inhabitants in Beijing. In order to analyze rumor and anti-rumor competition in the actual social network, personal resistance, personal preference, conformity, rumor intensity, government rumor refutation and other influencing factors were considered. Based on the developed risk assessment model, a long-term dynamic rumor propagation simulation for a seven day period was conducted and a comprehensive rumor propagation risk distribution map was obtained. A set of the sensitivity analyses were conducted for different social media and propagation routes. We assessed different anti-rumor coverage ratios and the rumor-spreading thresholds at which the government started to launch anti-rumor actions. The results we obtained provide worthwhile references useful for governmental decision making towards control of social-disrupting rumors.

  8. Applicability of Modified Drift Flux Model for Bubbly Flow in 2-D/3-D Rectangular Box With Various Kinds of Obstacles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuya Matsumoto; Akihiro Uchibori; Ryo Akasaka; Toshinori Seki; Shyuji Kaminishi; Koji Morita; Kenji Fukuda

    2002-01-01

    In order to develop analytical tools for the analyses of multi dimensional two-phase flow in channels with obstacles, the modified drift flux model has been applied. Numerical simulations of multi dimensional gas-liquid two-phase flow in a channel, with some kinds of obstacles inserted to simulate a simple sub-channel in the fuel bundle, were carried out. Analytical results were compared with experiments, to show the validity of the modified drift flux model. Experiments were carried out with using an apparatus of 2-D/3-D rectangular box with a perforated plate or a horizontal plate with slit hole or a vertical rod inserted. Nitrogen gas-water adiabatic two phase flow was circulated in the box. The apparatus was made of acrylic resin plates and be able to make the flow inside visualized. Two-phase flow pattern were recorded with a high-speed video camera and the mass flow rate of nitrogen gas was measured with a digital gas-mass flow meter. Comparisons between the experimental results and the numerical ones showed good agreements, thus it was verified the model would be applied for predicting flows in more complex geometry with obstacles. (authors)

  9. Modeling parenting stress trajectories among low-income young mothers across the child's second and third years: Factors accounting for stability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yiting; Fine, Mark A

    2007-12-01

    This study investigated parenting stress trajectories among low-income young mothers and the factors that are associated with change and stability of parenting stress as children aged from 14 to 36 months old. With a sample of 580 young mothers who applied to the Early Head Start Program, growth mixture modeling identified 3 trajectory classes of parenting stress: a chronically high group (7% of the sample), an increasing group (10% of the sample), and a decreasing group (83% of the sample). Maternal personal resources distinguished between the increasing and decreasing classes, whereas maternal personal resources, child characteristics, and contextual influences explained differences between the chronically high and decreasing trajectory classes. Findings suggest that for interventions to be effective, programs need to assess maternal, child, and contextual factors to better address the particular unique needs of young mothers.

  10. A Framework for Validating Traffic Simulation Models at the Vehicle Trajectory Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Based on current practices, traffic simulation models are calibrated and validated using macroscopic measures such as 15-minute averages of traffic counts or average point-to-point travel times. For an emerging number of applications, including conne...

  11. A minimal unified model of disease trajectories captures hallmarks of multiple sclerosis

    KAUST Repository

    Kannan, Venkateshan; Kiani, Narsis A.; Piehl, Fredrik; Tegner, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease targeting the central nervous system (CNS) causing demyelination and neurodegeneration leading to accumulation of neurological disability. Here we present a minimal, computational model involving

  12. Dynamic neural network modeling of HF radar current maps for forecasting oil spill trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, P.; Perez, J.; Kelly, F.J.; Bonner, J.; Michaud, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examined the concept of dynamic neural network (NN) modeling for short-term forecasts of coastal high-frequency (HF) radar current maps offshore of Galveston Texas. HF radar technology is emerging as a viable and affordable way to measure surface currents in real time and the number of users applying the technology is increasing. A 25 megahertz, two site, Seasonde HF radar system was used to map ocean and bay surface currents along the coast of Texas where wind and river discharge create complex and rapidly changing current patters that override the weaker tidal flow component. The HF radar system is particularly useful in this type of setting because its mobility makes it a good marine spill response tool that could provide hourly current maps. This capability helps improve deployment of response resources. In addition, the NN model recently developed by the Conrad Blucher Institute can be used to forecast water levels during storm events. Forecasted currents are based on time series of current vectors from HF radar plus wind speed, wind direction, and water levels, as well as tidal forecasts. The dynamic NN model was tested to evaluate its performance and the results were compared with a baseline model which assumes the currents do not change from the time of the forecast up to the forecasted time. The NN model showed improvements over the baseline model for forecasting time equal or greater than 3 hours, but the difference was relatively small. The test demonstrated the ability of the dynamic NN model to link meteorological forcing functions with HF radar current maps. Development of the dynamic NN modeling is still ongoing. 18 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  13. CIM-EARTH: Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, I.; Elliott, J.; Munson, T.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E. J.; Sanstad, A. H.

    2010-12-01

    We report here on the development of an open source software framework termed CIM-EARTH that is intended to aid decision-making in climate and energy policy. Numerical modeling in support of evaluating policies to address climate change is difficult not only because of inherent uncertainties but because of the differences in scale and modeling approach required for various subcomponents of the system. Economic and climate models are structured quite differently, and while climate forcing can be assumed to be roughly global, climate impacts and the human response to them occur on small spatial scales. Mitigation policies likewise can be applied on scales ranging from the better part of a continent (e.g. a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S.) to a few hundred km (e.g. statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes). Both spatial and time resolution requirements can be challenging for global economic models. CIM-EARTH is a modular framework based around dynamic general equilibrium models. It is designed as a community tool that will enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of both mitigation policies and unchecked climate change. Modularity enables both integration of highly resolved component sub-models for energy and other key systems and also user-directed choice of tradeoffs between e.g. spatial, sectoral, and time resolution. This poster describes the framework architecture, the current realized version, and plans for future releases. As with other open-source models familiar to the climate community (e.g. CCSM), deliverables will be made publicly available on a regular schedule, and community input is solicited for development of new features and modules.

  14. Shielding of the NBI boxes against W7-X magnetic stray fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kick, Manfred [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)], E-mail: Kick@arcor.de; Sielanko, Juliusz [Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Pl. M. C. Sklodowskie 1, 20-031 Lublin (Poland); Heinemann, Bernd; Riedl, Rudolf; Speth, Eckehart; Staebler, Albrecht [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2009-06-15

    Neutral Beam Injection (NBI), besides ECRH, is foreseen as one of the main heating devices at the W7-X stellarator currently under construction at IPP Greifswald, Germany. In a final stage 20 MW of NBI heating power will be installed generated by two NBI boxes of the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) type. Since magnetic fields generally affect the trajectories of charged particles, essentially all the NBI boxes - including ion sources, acceleration sections, neutralisers and deflection magnets - must be shielded against the stray fields of W7-X. In the magnetic stray fields of W7-X there exist significant radial and toroidal components whereas at tokamaks the vertical components are dominant. The power loads on the ion dump and the protecting structures of the deflecting magnets and the beam lines caused by residual beam ions, therefore, will be strongly different. Thus the shielding concept of AUG cannot simply be taken over, but must be carefully redesigned in order to remain below the critical power limits. New modelling calculations of the magnetic shielding, the ion trajectories and the resulting power loads have been carried out for the 'high iota' and 'low shear' experimental scenarios of W7-X. The fields taken for these calculations are modelled by averaging the calculated W7-X stray fields on the one hand, and by fields generated by two-hypothetical-planar coils perpendicular to the x-y plane, on the other hand. The shielding concept for W7-X mainly consist of iron plates in the outer side regions of the boxes and as little magnetic material as possible inside the boxes.

  15. Estimation of energetic efficiency of heat supply in front of the aircraft at supersonic accelerated flight. Part II. Mathematical model of the trajectory boost part and computational results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latypov, A. F.

    2009-03-01

    The fuel economy was estimated at boost trajectory of aerospace plane during energy supply to the free stream. Initial and final velocities of the flight were given. A model of planning flight above cold air in infinite isobaric thermal wake was used. The comparison of fuel consumption was done at optimal trajectories. The calculations were done using a combined power plant consisting of ramjet and liquid-propellant engine. An exergy model was constructed in the first part of the paper for estimating the ramjet thrust and specific impulse. To estimate the aerodynamic drag of aircraft a quadratic dependence on aerodynamic lift is used. The energy for flow heating is obtained at the sacrifice of an equivalent decrease of exergy of combustion products. The dependencies are obtained for increasing the range coefficient of cruise flight at different Mach numbers. In the second part of the paper, a mathematical model is presented for the boost part of the flight trajectory of the flying vehicle and computational results for reducing the fuel expenses at the boost trajectory at a given value of the energy supplied in front of the aircraft.

  16. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

  17. OpenDrift v1.0: a generic framework for trajectory modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Röhrs, Johannes; Breivik, Øyvind; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn

    2018-04-01

    OpenDrift is an open-source Python-based framework for Lagrangian particle modelling under development at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with contributions from the wider scientific community. The framework is highly generic and modular, and is designed to be used for any type of drift calculations in the ocean or atmosphere. A specific module within the OpenDrift framework corresponds to a Lagrangian particle model in the traditional sense. A number of modules have already been developed, including an oil drift module, a stochastic search-and-rescue module, a pelagic egg module, and a basic module for atmospheric drift. The framework allows for the ingestion of an unspecified number of forcing fields (scalar and vectorial) from various sources, including Eulerian ocean, atmosphere and wave models, but also measurements or a priori values for the same variables. A basic backtracking mechanism is inherent, using sign reversal of the total displacement vector and negative time stepping. OpenDrift is fast and simple to set up and use on Linux, Mac and Windows environments, and can be used with minimal or no Python experience. It is designed for flexibility, and researchers may easily adapt or write modules for their specific purpose. OpenDrift is also designed for performance, and simulations with millions of particles may be performed on a laptop. Further, OpenDrift is designed for robustness and is in daily operational use for emergency preparedness modelling (oil drift, search and rescue, and drifting ships) at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

  18. Learning probabilistic models of hydrogen bond stability from molecular dynamics simulation trajectories

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor; Yao, Peggy; Moshkov, Mikhail; Latombe, Jean-Claude

    2011-01-01

    . The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor.Methods: This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H

  19. Numerical considerations for Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models: Eliminating rogue trajectories, and the importance of numerical accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behavior in the numerical solution. This paper discusses numerical considerations when solving the Langevin-based particle velo...

  20. Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Variation Along Climatic and Topographic Trajectories in the Central Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilan, C.; Grunwald, S.; Quiroz, R.; Zhu, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Andes represent the largest and highest mountain range in the tropics. Geological and climatic differentiation favored landscape and soil diversity, resulting in ecosystems adapted to very different climatic patterns. Although several studies support the fact that the Andes are a vast sink of soil organic carbon (SOC) only few have quantified this variable in situ. Estimating the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in data-poor and/or poorly accessible areas, like the Andean region, is challenging due to the lack of recent soil data at high spatial resolution and the wide range of coexistent ecosystems. Thus, the sampling strategy is vital in order to ensure the whole range of environmental covariates (EC) controlling SOC dynamics is represented. This approach allows grasping the variability of the area, which leads to more efficient statistical estimates and improves the modeling process. The objectives of this study were to i) characterize and model the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in the Central Andean region using soil-landscape modeling techniques, and to ii) validate and evaluate the model for predicting SOC content in the area. For that purpose, three representative study areas were identified and a suite of variables including elevation, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), among others, was selected as EC. A stratified random sampling (namely conditioned Latin Hypercube) was implemented and a total of 400 sampling locations were identified. At all sites, four composite topsoil samples (0-30 cm) were collected within a 2 m radius. SOC content was measured using dry combustion and SOC stocks were estimated using bulk density measurements. Regression Kriging was used to map the spatial variation of SOC stocks. The accuracy, fit and bias of SOC models was assessed using a rigorous validation assessment. This study produced the first comprehensive, geospatial SOC stock assessment in this

  1. Simple Models for Airport Delays During Transition to a Trajectory-Based Air Traffic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Peter

    It is now widely recognised that a paradigm shift in air traffic control concepts is needed. This requires state-of-the-art innovative technologies, making much better use of the information in the air traffic management (ATM) system. These paradigm shifts go under the names of NextGen in the USA and SESAR in Europe, which inter alia will make dramatic changes to the nature of airport operations. A vital part of moving from an existing system to a new paradigm is the operational implications of the transition process. There would be business incentives for early aircraft fitment, it is generally safer to introduce new technologies gradually, and researchers are already proposing potential transition steps to the new system. Simple queuing theory models are used to establish rough quantitative estimates of the impact of the transition to a more efficient time-based navigational and ATM system. Such models are approximate, but they do offer insight into the broad implications of system change and its significant features. 4D-equipped aircraft in essence have a contract with the airport runway and, in return, they would get priority over any other aircraft waiting for use of the runway. The main operational feature examined here is the queuing delays affecting non-4D-equipped arrivals. These get a reasonable service if the proportion of 4D-equipped aircraft is low, but this can deteriorate markedly for high proportions, and be economically unviable. Preventative measures would be to limit the additional growth of 4D-equipped flights and/or to modify their contracts to provide sufficient space for the non-4D-equipped flights to operate without excessive delays. There is a potential for non-Poisson models, for which there is little in the literature, and for more complex models, e.g. grouping a succession of 4D-equipped aircraft as a batch.

  2. OpenDrift v1.0: a generic framework for trajectory modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.-F. Dagestad

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available OpenDrift is an open-source Python-based framework for Lagrangian particle modelling under development at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with contributions from the wider scientific community. The framework is highly generic and modular, and is designed to be used for any type of drift calculations in the ocean or atmosphere. A specific module within the OpenDrift framework corresponds to a Lagrangian particle model in the traditional sense. A number of modules have already been developed, including an oil drift module, a stochastic search-and-rescue module, a pelagic egg module, and a basic module for atmospheric drift. The framework allows for the ingestion of an unspecified number of forcing fields (scalar and vectorial from various sources, including Eulerian ocean, atmosphere and wave models, but also measurements or a priori values for the same variables. A basic backtracking mechanism is inherent, using sign reversal of the total displacement vector and negative time stepping. OpenDrift is fast and simple to set up and use on Linux, Mac and Windows environments, and can be used with minimal or no Python experience. It is designed for flexibility, and researchers may easily adapt or write modules for their specific purpose. OpenDrift is also designed for performance, and simulations with millions of particles may be performed on a laptop. Further, OpenDrift is designed for robustness and is in daily operational use for emergency preparedness modelling (oil drift, search and rescue, and drifting ships at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

  3. Different developmental trajectories across feature types support a dynamic field model of visual working memory development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmering, Vanessa R; Miller, Hilary E; Bohache, Kevin

    2015-05-01

    Research on visual working memory has focused on characterizing the nature of capacity limits as "slots" or "resources" based almost exclusively on adults' performance with little consideration for developmental change. Here we argue that understanding how visual working memory develops can shed new light onto the nature of representations. We present an alternative model, the Dynamic Field Theory (DFT), which can capture effects that have been previously attributed either to "slot" or "resource" explanations. The DFT includes a specific developmental mechanism to account for improvements in both resolution and capacity of visual working memory throughout childhood. Here we show how development in the DFT can account for different capacity estimates across feature types (i.e., color and shape). The current paper tests this account by comparing children's (3, 5, and 7 years of age) performance across different feature types. Results showed that capacity for colors increased faster over development than capacity for shapes. A second experiment confirmed this difference across feature types within subjects, but also showed that the difference can be attenuated by testing memory for less familiar colors. Model simulations demonstrate how developmental changes in connectivity within the model-purportedly arising through experience-can capture differences across feature types.

  4. Analysis of the trajectory surface hopping method from the Markov state model perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimov, Alexey V.; Wang, Linjun; Prezhdo, Oleg V.; Trivedi, Dhara

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the applicability of the seminal fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) method of Tully to modeling quantum transitions between electronic states that are not coupled directly, in the processes such as Auger recombination. We address the known deficiency of the method to describe such transitions by introducing an alternative definition for the surface hopping probabilities, as derived from the Markov state model perspective. We show that the resulting transition probabilities simplify to the quantum state populations derived from the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, reducing to the rapidly switching surface hopping approach of Tully and Preston. The resulting surface hopping scheme is simple and appeals to the fundamentals of quantum mechanics. The computational approach is similar to the FSSH method of Tully, yet it leads to a notably different performance. We demonstrate that the method is particularly accurate when applied to superexchange modeling. We further show improved accuracy of the method, when applied to one of the standard test problems. Finally, we adapt the derived scheme to atomistic simulation, combine it with the time-domain density functional theory, and show that it provides the Auger energy transfer timescales which are in good agreement with experiment, significantly improving upon other considered techniques. (author)

  5. Longitudinal hopping in intervehicle communication: Theory and simulations on modeled and empirical trajectory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiemann, Christian; Treiber, Martin; Kesting, Arne

    2008-09-01

    Intervehicle communication enables vehicles to exchange messages within a limited broadcast range and thus self-organize into dynamical and geographically embedded wireless ad hoc networks. We study the longitudinal hopping mode in which messages are transported using equipped vehicles driving in the same direction as a relay. Given a finite communication range, we investigate the conditions where messages can percolate through the network, i.e., a linked chain of relay vehicles exists between the sender and receiver. We simulate message propagation in different traffic scenarios and for different fractions of equipped vehicles. Simulations are done with both, modeled and empirical traffic data. These results are used to test the limits of applicability of an analytical model assuming a Poissonian distance distribution between the relays. We found a good agreement for homogeneous traffic scenarios and sufficiently low percentages of equipped vehicles. For higher percentages, the observed connectivity was higher than that of the model while in stop-and-go traffic situations it was lower. We explain these results in terms of correlations of the distances between the relay vehicles. Finally, we introduce variable transmission ranges and found that this additional stochastic component generally increased connectivity compared to a deterministic transmission with the same mean.

  6. Study on structural integrity in box structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asano, Masayuki; Ueta, Masahiro; Kanaoka, Tadashi; Ikeuchi, Toshiaki; Kodama, Tetsuhiro.

    1991-01-01

    This study was carried out to give an experimental foundation to the structural integrity of a box structure. Crack growth tests were performed on the reduced scale models, simulating typical portions of the box structure, in air at room temperature. The results show that the amount of crack growth is too small to injure the structural integrity of the models for the postulated loading cycle, and make clear the effective structure against crack growth. (author)

  7. Research on Three-dimensional Motion History Image Model and Extreme Learning Machine for Human Body Movement Trajectory Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the traditional machine vision recognition technology and traditional artificial neural networks about body movement trajectory, this paper finds out the shortcomings of the traditional recognition technology. By combining the invariant moments of the three-dimensional motion history image (computed as the eigenvector of body movements and the extreme learning machine (constructed as the classification artificial neural network of body movements, the paper applies the method to the machine vision of the body movement trajectory. In detail, the paper gives a detailed introduction about the algorithm and realization scheme of the body movement trajectory recognition based on the three-dimensional motion history image and the extreme learning machine. Finally, by comparing with the results of the recognition experiments, it attempts to verify that the method of body movement trajectory recognition technology based on the three-dimensional motion history image and extreme learning machine has a more accurate recognition rate and better robustness.

  8. Control of a flexible beam actuated by macro-fiber composite patches: I. Modeling and feedforward trajectory control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schröck, Johannes; Meurer, Thomas; Kugi, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers a systematic approach for motion planning and feedforward control design for a flexible cantilever actuated by piezoelectric macro-fiber composite (MFC) patches. For accurate feedforward tracking control, special attention has to be paid to the inherent nonlinear hysteresis and creep behavior of these actuators. In order to account for these effects an appropriate compensator is applied which allows us to perform the tracking controller design on the basis of a linear infinite-dimensional model. A detailed analysis of the nonlinear actuator behavior as well as the compensator design and the overall experimental validation is presented in the companion paper (Schröck et al 2011 Smart Mater. Struct. 20 015016). The governing equations of motion of the hysteresis and creep compensated cantilever are determined by means of the extended Hamilton's principle. This allows us to consider the influence of the bonded patch actuators on the mechanical properties of the underlying beam structure in a straightforward manner and results in a model with spatially varying system parameters. For the solution of the motion planning and feedforward control problem a flatness-based methodology is proposed. In a first step, the infinite-dimensional system of the MFC-actuated flexible cantilever is approximated by a finite-dimensional model, where all system variables, i.e. the states, input and output, can be parameterized in terms of a so-called flat output. In a second step, it is shown by numerical simulations that these parameterizations converge with increasing system order of the finite-dimensional model such that the feedforward control input can be directly calculated in order to realize prescribed output trajectories

  9. Report of the Nordic dispersion-/trajectory model comparison with the ETEX-1 fullscale experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveten, U.; Mikkelsen, T.

    1995-12-01

    On the 6th and 7th June 1995 a meeting was held at Risoe, where calculations of the atmospheric transportation and dispersion of the ETEX-1 release carried out by a number of institutions in the Nordic countries were presented. Also presented were the results of the measurements carried out by the National Environmental Research Institute of Denmark, information previously not known to the participants in the meeting. This provided not only an opportunity of intercomparing the models, but also of carrying out a validation exercise. The main points form the concluding discussions are also included in this report. (au) 7 tabs., 75 ills

  10. Pion in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bietenholz, W.; Rakow, P.E.L.; Schierholz, G.; Regensburg Univ.

    2010-02-01

    The residual mass of the pion in a finite spatial box at vanishing quark masses is computed with two flavors of dynamical clover fermions. The result is compared with predictions of chiral perturbation theory in the δ regime. (orig.)

  11. Broken links and black boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2013-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper argues...... observable distributions and patterns of association in the archaeological record. In formal terms this is not a problem of network analysis, but network synthesis: the classic problem of cracking codes or reconstructing black-box circuits....

  12. Infectious disease and boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Osric S

    2009-10-01

    There are no unique boxing diseases but certain factors contributing to the spread of illnesses apply strongly to the boxer, coach, and the training facility. This article examines the nature of the sport of boxing and its surrounding environment, and the likelihood of spread of infection through airborne, contact, or blood-borne routes of transmission. Evidence from other sports such as running, wrestling, and martial arts is included to help elucidate the pathophysiologic elements that could be identified in boxers.

  13. [Boxing: traumatology and prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabanis, Emmanuel-Alain; Iba-Zizen, Marie-Thérèse; Perez, Georges; Senegas, Xavier; Furgoni, Julien; Pineau, Jean-Claude; Louquet, Jean-Louis; Henrion, Roger

    2010-10-01

    In 1986, a surgeon who, as an amateur boxer himself was concerned with boxers' health, approached a pioneering Parisian neuroimaging unit. Thus began a study in close cooperation with the French Boxing Federation, spanning 25 years. In a first series of 52 volunteer boxers (13 amateurs and 39 professionals), during which MRI gradually replaced computed tomography, ten risk factors were identified, which notably included boxing style: only one of 40 "stylists" with a good boxing technique had cortical atrophy (4.5 %), compared to 15 % of "sloggers". Changes to the French Boxing Federation rules placed the accent on medical prevention. The second series, of 247 boxers (81 amateurs and 266 professionals), showed a clear improvement, as lesions were suspected in 14 individuals, of which only 4 (1.35 %) were probably due to boxing. The third and fourth series were part of a protocol called "Brain-Boxing-Ageing", which included 76 boxers (11 having suffered KOs) and 120 MRI scans, with reproducible CT and MRI acquisitions (9 sequences with 1.5 T then 3 T, and CT). MRI anomalies secondary to boxing were found in 11 % of amateurs and 38 % of professionals (atrophy, high vascular T2 signal areas, 2 cases of post-KO subdural bleeding). CT revealed sinus damage in 13 % of the amateurs and 19 % of the professionals. The risk of acute and chronic facial and brain damage was underline, along with detailed precautionary measures (organization of bouts, role of the referee and ringside doctor, and application of French Boxing Federation rules).

  14. Nonneurologic emergencies in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletta, Domenic F

    2009-10-01

    Professional boxing has done an admirable job in promoting safety standards in its particular sport. However, injuries occur during the normal course of competition and, unfortunately, an occasional life-threatening emergency may arise. Although most common medical emergencies in boxing are injuries from closed head trauma, in this article those infrequent but potentially catastrophic nonneurologic conditions are reviewed along with some less serious emergencies that the physician must be prepared to address.

  15. Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyao Hu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs. The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64 (left foot and 2.72 mm (±0.83 (right foot along the medial–lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98 (left foot and 11.19 mm (±2.98 (right foot along the anterior–posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

  16. Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng; Sun, Zhenglong; Qu, Xingda

    2018-02-01

    Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial-lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior-posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

  17. Sources of contamination and modelled pollutant trajectories in a Mediterranean harbour (Tarragona, Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mestres, M; Sierra, J P; Mösso, C; Sánchez-Arcilla, A

    2010-06-01

    The proximity of commercial harbours to residential areas and the growing environmental awareness of society have led most port authorities to include environmental management within their administration plan. Regarding water quality, it is necessary to have the capacity and tools to deal with contamination episodes that may damage marine ecosystems and human health, but also affect the normal functioning of harbours. This paper presents a description of the main pollutant sources in Tarragona Harbour (Spain), and a numerical analysis of several pollution episodes based on the Port Authority's actual environmental concerns. The results show that pollution generated inside the harbour tends to remain confined within the port, whereas it is very likely that oil spills from a nearby monobuoy may affect the neighbouring beaches. The present combination of numerical models proves itself a useful tool to assess the environmental risk associated to harbour activities and potential pollution spills.

  18. Flight test trajectory control analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, R.; Gupta, N.

    1983-01-01

    Recent extensions to optimal control theory applied to meaningful linear models with sufficiently flexible software tools provide powerful techniques for designing flight test trajectory controllers (FTTCs). This report describes the principal steps for systematic development of flight trajectory controllers, which can be summarized as planning, modeling, designing, and validating a trajectory controller. The techniques have been kept as general as possible and should apply to a wide range of problems where quantities must be computed and displayed to a pilot to improve pilot effectiveness and to reduce workload and fatigue. To illustrate the approach, a detailed trajectory guidance law is developed and demonstrated for the F-15 aircraft flying the zoom-and-pushover maneuver.

  19. Adjustment modes in the trajectory of progressive multiple sclerosis: a qualitative study and conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogosian, Angeliki; Morgan, Myfanwy; Bishop, Felicity L; Day, Fern; Moss-Morris, Rona

    2017-03-01

    We examined cognitive and behavioural challenges and adaptations for people with progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) and developed a preliminary conceptual model of changes in adjustment over time. Using theoretical sampling, 34 semi-structured interviews were conducted with people with MS. Participants were between 41 and 77 years of age. Thirteen were diagnosed with primary progressive MS and 21 with secondary progressive MS. Data were analysed using a grounded theory approach. Participants described initially bracketing the illness off and carrying on their usual activities but this became problematic as the condition progressed and they employed different adjustment modes to cope with increased disabilities. Some scaled back their activities to live a more comfortable life, others identified new activities or adapted old ones, whereas at times, people disengaged from the adjustment process altogether and resigned to their condition. Relationships with partners, emotional reactions, environment and perception of the environment influenced adjustment, while people were often flexible and shifted among modes. Adjusting to a progressive condition is a fluid process. Future interventions can be tailored to address modifiable factors at different stages of the condition and may involve addressing emotional reactions concealing/revealing the condition and perceptions of the environment.

  20. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  1. A mathematical model for describing the retinal nerve fiber bundle trajectories in the human eye : Average course, variability, and influence of refraction, optic disc size and optic disc position

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansonius, Nomdo M.; Schiefer, Julia; Nevalainen, Jukka; Paetzold, Jens; Schiefer, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    Previously we developed a mathematical model for describing the retinal nerve fiber bundle trajectories in the superior-temporal and inferior-temporal regions of the human retina, based on traced trajectories extracted from fundus photographs. Aims of the current study were to (i) validate the

  2. TIME SERIES CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, LAND USE AND FLOOD DISCHARGE BASED ON ARIMA BOX-JENKINS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abror Abror

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia located in tropic area consists of wet season and dry season. However, in last few years, in river discharge in dry season is very little, but in contrary, in wet season, frequency of flood increases with sharp peak and increasingly great water elevation. The increased flood discharge may occur due to change in land use or change in rainfall characteristic. Both matters should get clarity. Therefore, a research should be done to analyze rainfall characteristic, land use and flood discharge in some watershed area (DAS quantitatively from time series data. The research was conducted in DAS Gintung in Parakankidang, DAS Gung in Danawarih, DAS Rambut in Cipero, DAS Kemiri in Sidapurna and DAS Comal in Nambo, located in Tegal Regency and Pemalang Regency in Central Java Province. This research activity consisted of three main steps: input, DAS system and output. Input is DAS determination and selection and searching secondary data. DAS system is early secondary data processing consisting of rainfall analysis, HSS GAMA I parameter, land type analysis and DAS land use. Output is final processing step that consisting of calculation of Tadashi Tanimoto, USSCS effective rainfall, flood discharge, ARIMA analysis, result analysis and conclusion. Analytical calculation of ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series used software Number Cruncher Statistical Systems and Power Analysis Sample Size (NCSS-PASS version 2000, which result in time series characteristic in form of time series pattern, mean square errors (MSE, root mean square ( RMS, autocorrelation of residual and trend. Result of this research indicates that composite CN and flood discharge is proportional that means when composite CN trend increase then flood discharge trend also increase and vice versa. Meanwhile, decrease of rainfall trend is not always followed with decrease in flood discharge trend. The main cause of flood discharge characteristic is DAS management characteristic, not change in

  3. Box-Behnken design in modeling of solid-phase tea waste extraction for the removal of uranium from water samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khajeh, Mostafa; Jahanbin, Elham; Ghaffari-Moghaddam, Mansour; Moghaddam, Zahra Safaei [Zabol Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Chemistry; Bohlooli, Mousa [Zabol Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Biology

    2015-07-01

    In this study, the solid-phase tea waste procedure was used for separation, preconcentration and determination of uranium from water samples by UV-Vis spectrophotometer. In addition, Box-Behnken experimental design was employed to investigated the influence of six variables including pH, mass of adsorbent, eluent volume, amount of 1-(2-pyridylazo)-2-naphthol (PAN); and sample and eluent flow rates on the extraction of analyte. High determination coefficient (R{sup 2}) of 0.972 and adjusted-R{sup 2} of 0.943 showed the satisfactory adjustment of the polynomial regression model. This method was used for the extraction of uranium from real water samples.

  4. Modelling environmentally friendly fairways using Lagrangian trajectories: a case study for the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soomere, Tarmo; Berezovski, Mihhail; Quak, Ewald; Viikmäe, Bert

    2011-10-01

    We address possibilities of minimising environmental risks using statistical features of current-driven propagation of adverse impacts to the coast. The recently introduced method for finding the optimum locations of potentially dangerous activities (Soomere et al. in Proc Estonian Acad Sci 59:156-165, 2010) is expanded towards accounting for the spatial distributions of probabilities and times for reaching the coast for passively advecting particles released in different sea areas. These distributions are calculated using large sets of Lagrangian trajectories found from Eulerian velocity fields provided by the Rossby Centre Ocean Model with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles for 1987-1991. The test area is the Gulf of Finland in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The potential gain using the optimum fairways from the Baltic Proper to the eastern part of the gulf is an up to 44% decrease in the probability of coastal pollution and a similar increase in the average time for reaching the coast. The optimum fairways are mostly located to the north of the gulf axis (by 2-8 km on average) and meander substantially in some sections. The robustness of this approach is quantified as the typical root mean square deviation (6-16 km) between the optimum fairways specified from different criteria. Drastic variations in the width of the `corridors' for almost optimal fairways (2-30 km for the average width of 15 km) signifies that the sensitivity of the results with respect to small changes in the environmental criteria largely varies in different parts of the gulf.

  5. The influence of a Classroom Model of Scientific Scholarship on Four Girls' Trajectories of Identification with Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Melissa Sunshine

    This study examines the teacher's role in shaping the identity construction resources available in a classroom and the ways in which individual students take up, modify, and appropriate those resources to construct themselves as scientists through interaction with their teacher and peers. Drawing on frameworks of identity construction and social positioning, I propose that the locally-negotiated classroom-level cultural model of what it means to be a "good" science student forms the arena in which students construct a sense of their own competence at, affiliation with, and interest in science. The setting for this study was a 6th grade science class at a progressive urban elementary school whose population roughly represents the ethnic and socioeconomic diversity of the state of California. The teacher was an experienced science and math teacher interested in social justice and inquiry teaching. Drawing from naturalistic observations, video and artifact analysis, survey data, and repeated interviews with students and the teacher, I demonstrated what it meant to be a "good" science student in this particular cultural community by analyzing what was required, reinforced, and rewarded in this classroom. Next, I traced the influence of this particular classroom's conception of what it meant to be good at science on the trajectories of identification with science of four 6th grade girls selected to represent a variety of stances towards science, levels of classroom participation, and personal backgrounds. Scientific scholarship in this class had two parts: values related to science as a discipline, and a more generic set of school-related values one might see in any classroom. Different meanings of and values for science were indexed in the everyday activities of the classroom: science as a language for describing the natural world, science as a set of rhetorical values, science as an adult social community, and science as a place for mess and explosions. Among school

  6. Using rapidly-exploring random tree-based algorithms to find smooth and optimal trajectories

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Matebese, B

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available -exploring random tree-based algorithms to fi nd smooth and optimal trajectories B MATEBESE1, MK BANDA2 AND S UTETE1 1CSIR Modelling and Digital Science, PO Box 395, Pretoria, South Africa, 0001 2Department of Applied Mathematics, Stellenbosch University... and complex environments. The RRT algorithm is the most popular and has the ability to find a feasible solution faster than other algorithms. The drawback of using RRT is that, as the number of samples increases, the probability that the algorithm converges...

  7. Eye trauma in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales, Gustavo; Curreri, Anthony

    2009-10-01

    In boxing, along with a few other sports, trauma is inherent to the nature of the sport; therefore it is considered a high-risk sport for ocular injuries. The long-term morbidity of ocular injuries suffered by boxers is difficult to estimate due to the lack of structured long-term follow-up of these athletes. Complications of blunt ocular trauma may develop years after the athlete has retired from the ring and is no longer considered to be at risk for boxing-related injuries. This article describes the wide range of eye injuries a boxer can sustain, and their immediate and long-term clinical management.

  8. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  9. Constraining a hybrid volatility basis-set model for aging of wood-burning emissions using smog chamber experiments: a box-model study based on the VBS scheme of the CAMx model (v5.40)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciarelli, Giancarlo; El Haddad, Imad; Bruns, Emily; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Möhler, Ottmar; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.

    2017-06-01

    In this study, novel wood combustion aging experiments performed at different temperatures (263 and 288 K) in a ˜ 7 m3 smog chamber were modelled using a hybrid volatility basis set (VBS) box model, representing the emission partitioning and their oxidation against OH. We combine aerosol-chemistry box-model simulations with unprecedented measurements of non-traditional volatile organic compounds (NTVOCs) from a high-resolution proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) and with organic aerosol measurements from an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Due to this, we are able to observationally constrain the amounts of different NTVOC aerosol precursors (in the model) relative to low volatility and semi-volatile primary organic material (OMsv), which is partitioned based on current published volatility distribution data. By comparing the NTVOC / OMsv ratios at different temperatures, we determine the enthalpies of vaporization of primary biomass-burning organic aerosols. Further, the developed model allows for evaluating the evolution of oxidation products of the semi-volatile and volatile precursors with aging. More than 30 000 box-model simulations were performed to retrieve the combination of parameters that best fit the observed organic aerosol mass and O : C ratios. The parameters investigated include the NTVOC reaction rates and yields as well as enthalpies of vaporization and the O : C of secondary organic aerosol surrogates. Our results suggest an average ratio of NTVOCs to the sum of non-volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds of ˜ 4.75. The mass yields of these compounds determined for a wide range of atmospherically relevant temperatures and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations were predicted to vary between 8 and 30 % after 5 h of continuous aging. Based on the reaction scheme used, reaction rates of the NTVOC mixture range from 3.0 × 10-11 to 4. 0 × 10-11 cm3 molec-1 s-1. The average enthalpy of vaporization of secondary organic aerosol

  10. Constraining a hybrid volatility basis-set model for aging of wood-burning emissions using smog chamber experiments: a box-model study based on the VBS scheme of the CAMx model (v5.40

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ciarelli

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, novel wood combustion aging experiments performed at different temperatures (263 and 288 K in a ∼ 7 m3 smog chamber were modelled using a hybrid volatility basis set (VBS box model, representing the emission partitioning and their oxidation against OH. We combine aerosol–chemistry box-model simulations with unprecedented measurements of non-traditional volatile organic compounds (NTVOCs from a high-resolution proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS and with organic aerosol measurements from an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS. Due to this, we are able to observationally constrain the amounts of different NTVOC aerosol precursors (in the model relative to low volatility and semi-volatile primary organic material (OMsv, which is partitioned based on current published volatility distribution data. By comparing the NTVOC ∕ OMsv ratios at different temperatures, we determine the enthalpies of vaporization of primary biomass-burning organic aerosols. Further, the developed model allows for evaluating the evolution of oxidation products of the semi-volatile and volatile precursors with aging. More than 30 000 box-model simulations were performed to retrieve the combination of parameters that best fit the observed organic aerosol mass and O : C ratios. The parameters investigated include the NTVOC reaction rates and yields as well as enthalpies of vaporization and the O : C of secondary organic aerosol surrogates. Our results suggest an average ratio of NTVOCs to the sum of non-volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds of ∼ 4.75. The mass yields of these compounds determined for a wide range of atmospherically relevant temperatures and organic aerosol (OA concentrations were predicted to vary between 8 and 30 % after 5 h of continuous aging. Based on the reaction scheme used, reaction rates of the NTVOC mixture range from 3.0 × 10−11 to 4. 0 × 10−11 cm3 molec−1 s−1

  11. A model of curved saccade trajectories: Spike rate adaptation in the brainstem as the cause of deviation away

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruijne, Wouter; Van der Stigchel, Stefan; Meeter, Martijn

    2014-01-01

    The trajectory of saccades to a target is often affected whenever there is a distractor in the visual field. Distractors can cause a saccade to deviate towards their location or away from it. The oculomotor mechanisms that produce deviation towards distractors have been thoroughly explored in

  12. A model of curved saccade trajectories: Spike rate adaptation in the brainstem as the cause of deviation away.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruijne, W.; van der Stigchel, S.; Meeter, M.

    2014-01-01

    The trajectory of saccades to a target is often affected whenever there is a distractor in the visual field. Distractors can cause a saccade to deviate towards their location or away from it. The oculomotor mechanisms that produce deviation towards distractors have been thoroughly explored in

  13. A Grey Box Neural Network Model of Basal Ganglia for Gait Signal of Patients with Huntington Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Pourhedayat

    2016-04-01

    Conclusion: Fine similarity between the presented model and BG physiological structure with its high ability in simulating HD disorders, introduces this model as a powerful tool to analyze HD behavior.

  14. Management by Trajectory: Trajectory Management Study Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiden, Kenneth; Atkins, Stephen; Fernandes, Alicia D.; Kaler, Curt; Bell, Alan; Kilbourne, Todd; Evans, Mark

    2017-01-01

    In order to realize the full potential of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), improved management along planned trajectories between air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and system users (e.g., pilots and airline dispatchers) is needed. Future automation improvements and increased data communications between aircraft and ground automation would make the concept of Management by Trajectory (MBT) possible.

  15. A piecewise probabilistic regression model to decode hand movement trajectories from epidural and subdural ECoG signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrokhi, Behraz; Erfanian, Abbas

    2018-06-01

    Objective. The primary concern of this study is to develop a probabilistic regression method that would improve the decoding of the hand movement trajectories from epidural ECoG as well as from subdural ECoG signals. Approach. The model is characterized by the conditional expectation of the hand position given the ECoG signals. The conditional expectation of the hand position is then modeled by a linear combination of the conditional probability density functions defined for each segment of the movement. Moreover, a spatial linear filter is proposed for reducing the dimension of the feature space. The spatial linear filter is applied to each frequency band of the ECoG signals and extract the features with highest decoding performance. Main results. For evaluating the proposed method, a dataset including 28 ECoG recordings from four adult Japanese macaques is used. The results show that the proposed decoding method outperforms the results with respect to the state of the art methods using this dataset. The relative kinematic information of each frequency band is also investigated using mutual information and decoding performance. The decoding performance shows that the best performance was obtained for high gamma bands from 50 to 200 Hz as well as high frequency ECoG band from 200 to 400 Hz for subdural recordings. However, the decoding performance was decreased for these frequency bands using epidural recordings. The mutual information shows that, on average, the high gamma band from 50 to 200 Hz and high frequency ECoG band from 200 to 400 Hz contain significantly more information than the average of the rest of the frequency bands ≤ft( pright) for both subdural and epidural recordings. The results of high resolution time-frequency analysis show that ERD/ERS patterns in all frequency bands could reveal the dynamics of the ECoG responses during the movement. The onset and offset of the movement can be clearly identified by the ERD/ERS patterns. Significance

  16. Positive matrix factorization and trajectory modelling for source identification: A new look at Indian Ocean Experiment ship observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhanuprasad, S. G.; Venkataraman, Chandra; Bhushan, Mani

    The sources of aerosols on a regional scale over India have only recently received attention in studies using back trajectory analysis and chemical transport modelling. Receptor modelling approaches such as positive matrix factorization (PMF) and the potential source contribution function (PSCF) are effective tools in source identification of urban and regional-scale pollution. In this work, PMF and PSCF analysis is applied to identify categories and locations of sources that influenced surface concentrations of aerosols in the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) domain measured on-board the research vessel Ron Brown [Quinn, P.K., Coffman, D.J., Bates, T.S., Miller, T.L., Johnson, J.E., Welton, E.J., et al., 2002. Aerosol optical properties during INDOEX 1999: means, variability, and controlling factors. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8020, doi:10.1029/2000JD000037]. Emissions inventory information is used to identify sources co-located with probable source regions from PSCF. PMF analysis identified six factors influencing PM concentrations during the INDOEX cruise of the Ron Brown including a biomass combustion factor (35-40%), three industrial emissions factors (35-40%), primarily secondary sulphate-nitrate, balance trace elements and Zn, and two dust factors (20-30%) of Si- and Ca-dust. The identified factors effectively predict the measured submicron PM concentrations (slope of regression line=0.90±0.20; R2=0.76). Probable source regions shifted based on changes in surface and elevated flows during different times in the ship cruise. They were in India in the early part of the cruise, but in west Asia, south-east Asia and Africa, during later parts of the cruise. Co-located sources include coal-fired electric utilities, cement, metals and petroleum production in India and west Asia, biofuel combustion for energy and crop residue burning in India, woodland/forest burning in north sub-Saharan Africa and forest burning in south-east Asia. Significant findings

  17. Teaching with Box Tops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiser, Lynne; D'Zamko, Mary Elizabeth

    1984-01-01

    Using environmental materials (such as the phone book and placemats from fast food restaurants) can be a motivating way to teach learning disabled students skills and concepts, as shown in an approach to reading, math, science and nutrition, and social studies instruction using a JELL-O brand gelatin box. (CL)

  18. Glove box posting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntosh, A.E.

    1981-01-01

    A system for posting objects into closed containers, such as glove boxes, is described in which the bag used, preferably made of plastic, does not have to be fitted and sealed by the operator during each posting operation. (U.K.)

  19. Mystery Box Marvels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Joel; Centurio, Tina

    2012-01-01

    What happens in the first week of school could very well set the stage for the rest of the school year. Setting high standards for science activities based in inquiry can start on the first day of science class and develop as the year unfolds. With the use of simple, readily available, inexpensive materials, an efficient mystery box lesson can be…

  20. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  1. Adaptive Trajectory Design

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Adaptive Trajectory Design (ATD) is an original concept for quick and efficient end-to-end trajectory designs using proven piece-wise dynamical methods. With ongoing...

  2. Ocular complications of boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, M; Vaiano, A; Colella, F; Coccimiglio, F; Moscetti, M; Palmieri, V; Focosi, F; Zeppilli, P; Vinger, P

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of ocular injuries in a large population of boxers over a period of 16 years, in particular, the most severe lesions that may be vision threatening. Methods: Clinical records of the medical archive of the Italian Boxing Federation were analysed. A total of 1032 boxers were examined from February 1982 to October 1998. A complete ophthalmological history was available for 956, who formed the study population (a total of 10 697 examinations). The following data were collected: age when started boxing; duration of competitive boxing career (from the date of the first bout); weight category; a thorough ocular history. The following investigations were carried out: measurement of visual acuity and visual fields, anterior segment inspection, applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, and examination of ocular fundus. Eighty age matched healthy subjects, who had never boxed, formed the control group. Results: Of the 956 boxers examined, 428 were amateur (44.8%) and 528 professional (55.2%). The median age at first examination was 23.1 (4.3) years (range 15–36). The prevalence of conjunctival, corneal, lenticular, vitreal, ocular papilla, and retinal alterations in the study population was 40.9% compared with 3.1% in the control group (p⩽0.0001). The prevalence of serious ocular findings (angle, lens, macula, and peripheral retina alterations) was 5.6% in boxers and 3.1% in controls (NS). Conclusions: Boxing does not result in a higher prevalence of severe ocular lesions than in the general population. However, the prevalence of milder lesions (in particular with regard to the conjunctiva and cornea) is noteworthy, justifying the need for adequate ophthalmological surveillance. PMID:15665199

  3. Processes Controlling CH2O Over the Baltimore/Washington DC Metropolitan Region: A Box Model Analysis Using Data from DISCOVER-AQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, J. R.; Crawford, J. H.; Fried, A.; Wisthaler, A.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Barrick, J. D.; Diskin, G. S.; Duncan, B. N.; Mikoviny, T.

    2012-12-01

    The first deployment for NASA's Earth Venture campaign DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) took place over the Baltimore/Washington DC region during July of 2011. Observations of CH2O in the lowest kilometer (pressure-altitude) indicate that median concentrations can vary day to day by as much as 5 ppbv. Further, variability within a single day can correlate with a number of species, including H2O, temperature, isoprene, and/or CO. The NASA Langley photochemical box model is used to examine the dominant budget terms for CH2O during DISCOVER-AQ and to diagnose the drivers of the CH2O variability. Modeling results show that the source of CH2O is largely dominated by isoprene. However, the variability of CH2O within single flight days is rarely directly correlated to isoprene. Rather, most often, CH2O variability is correlated to the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, defined by OH and driven by OH precursors such as H2O, O3 photolysis rates, and NO. Sensitivity model runs where isoprene is held constant to daily medians show excellent ability to predict both the overall CH2O concentration (dominated by isoprene) and the variability of CH2O throughout a day (driven by variations in oxidative capacity).

  4. Trajectory behaviour at different phonemic context sizes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Badenhorst, J

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors propose a piecewise-linear model for the temporal trajectories of Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients during phone transitions. As with conventional Hidden Markov Models, the parameters of the model can be estimated for different...

  5. An experimental evaluation of the generalizing capabilities of process discovery techniques and black-box sequence models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tax, N.; van Zelst, S.J.; Teinemaa, I.; Gulden, Jens; Reinhartz-Berger, Iris; Schmidt, Rainer; Guerreiro, Sérgio; Guédria, Wided; Bera, Palash

    2018-01-01

    A plethora of automated process discovery techniques have been developed which aim to discover a process model based on event data originating from the execution of business processes. The aim of the discovered process models is to describe the control-flow of the underlying business process. At the

  6. Evaluation of probabilistic flow predictions in sewer systems using grey box models and a skill score criterion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn; Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2012-01-01

    term and a diffusion term, respectively accounting for the deterministic and stochastic part of the models. Furthermore, a distinction is made between the process noise and the observation noise. We compare five different model candidates’ predictive performances that solely differ with respect...... to the diffusion term description up to a 4 h prediction horizon by adopting the prediction performance measures; reliability, sharpness and skill score to pinpoint the preferred model. The prediction performance of a model is reliable if the observed coverage of the prediction intervals corresponds to the nominal...... coverage of the prediction intervals, i.e. the bias between these coverages should ideally be zero. The sharpness is a measure of the distance between the lower and upper prediction limits, and skill score criterion makes it possible to pinpoint the preferred model by taking into account both reliability...

  7. Computing with spatial trajectories

    CERN Document Server

    2011-01-01

    Covers the fundamentals and the state-of-the-art research inspired by the spatial trajectory data Readers are provided with tutorial-style chapters, case studies and references to other relevant research work This is the first book that presents the foundation dealing with spatial trajectories and state-of-the-art research and practices enabled by trajectories

  8. Detecting phase singularities and rotor center trajectories based on the Hilbert transform of intraatrial electrograms in an atrial voxel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Unger Laura Anna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed at the detection of rotor centers within the atrial cavity during atrial fibrillation on the basis of phase singularities. A voxel based method was established which employs the Hilbert transform and the phase of unipolar electrograms. The method provides a 3D overview of phase singularities at the endocardial surface and within the blood volume. Mapping those phase singularities from the inside of the atria at the endocardium yielded rotor center trajectories. We discuss the results for an unstable and a more stable rotor. The side length of the areas covered by the trajectories varied from 1.5 mm to 10 mm. These results are important for cardiologists who target rotors with RF ablation in order to cure atrial fibrillation.

  9. BOX MEDIA MODEL THROUGH THE USE OF CONTEXTUAL UNDERSTANDING TO IMPROVE STUDENT LEARNING CONCEPTS IN VOLUME BEAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dede Rohaeni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This research is motivated Cilengkrang Elementary School fifth grade students in the learning of the beam volume is still experiencing difficulties. This happens because the learning process that takes place is conventional. Learning by applying a contextual model chosen researchers by reason students will know if the learning is associated with the real world of students. The method used in this research is a classroom action research methods to the design of the research procedure refers to the spiral model Kemmis and MC. Tujuanpenelitianini is to obtain an overview of the planning, implementation and improvement of students' understanding of the results of the application of the concept model of contextual learning in the classroom beam volume V Elementary School Cilengkrang. The method used in this research is a classroom action research methods to the design of the research procedure refers to the spiral model Kemmis and MC. Taggart. Based on the implementation of the actions performed by three cycles, as a whole has shown an increase from the initial data, both process and outcomes of learning. So that the application of contextual models can enhance students' understanding of class V SDN Cilengkrang Northern District of Sumedang Sumedang district of the concept of the beam volume.   Keywords: Contextual Model, Mathematics, Mathematics Learning Objectives     Abstrak. Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi siswa kelas V SDN Cilengkrang dalam pembelajaran volume balok masih mengalami kesulitan. Ini terjadi karena proses pembelajaran yang berlangsung bersifat konvensional. Pembelajaran dengan menerapkan model kontekstual dipilih peneliti dengan alasan siswa akan paham jika pembelajaran dikaitkan dengan dunia nyata siswa. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode penelitian tindakan kelas dengan rancangan prosedur penelitiannya mengacu pada model spiral Kemmis dan MC. Tujuanpenelitianini yaitu untuk memperoleh

  10. Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraswat, A., E-mail: anupams@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Reddy, G.R. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, S. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

  11. Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saraswat, A.; Reddy, G.R.; Ghosh, S.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

  12. Fluctuation theorems and atypical trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, M; Lahiri, S; Jayannavar, A M

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we have studied simple models that can be solved analytically to illustrate various fluctuation theorems. These fluctuation theorems provide symmetries individually to the distributions of physical quantities such as the classical work (W c ), thermodynamic work (W), total entropy (Δs tot ) and dissipated heat (Q), when the system is driven arbitrarily out of equilibrium. All these quantities can be defined for individual trajectories. We have studied the number of trajectories which exhibit behaviour unexpected at the macroscopic level. As the time of observation increases, the fraction of such atypical trajectories decreases, as expected at the macroscale. The distributions for the thermodynamic work and entropy production in nonlinear models may exhibit a peak (most probable value) in the atypical regime without violating the expected average behaviour. However, dissipated heat and classical work exhibit a peak in the regime of typical behaviour only.

  13. Longitudinal Trajectories of Metabolic Control From Childhood to Young Adulthood in Type 1 Diabetes From a Large German/Austrian Registry: A Group-Based Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwandt, Anke; Hermann, Julia M; Rosenbauer, Joachim; Boettcher, Claudia; Dunstheimer, Désirée; Grulich-Henn, Jürgen; Kuss, Oliver; Rami-Merhar, Birgit; Vogel, Christian; Holl, Reinhard W

    2017-03-01

    Worsening of glycemic control in type 1 diabetes during puberty is a common observation. However, HbA 1c remains stable or even improves for some youths. The aim is to identify distinct patterns of glycemic control in type 1 diabetes from childhood to young adulthood. A total of 6,433 patients with type 1 diabetes were selected from the prospective, multicenter diabetes patient registry Diabetes-Patienten-Verlaufsdokumentation (DPV) (follow-up from age 8 to 19 years, baseline diabetes duration ≥2 years, HbA 1c aggregated per year of life). We used latent class growth modeling as the trajectory approach to determine distinct subgroups following a similar trajectory for HbA 1c over time. Five distinct longitudinal trajectories of HbA 1c were determined, comprising group 1 = 40%, group 2 = 27%, group 3 = 15%, group 4 = 13%, and group 5 = 5% of patients. Groups 1-3 indicated stable glycemic control at different HbA 1c levels. At baseline, similar HbA 1c was observed in group 1 and group 4, but HbA 1c deteriorated in group 4 from age 8 to 19 years. Similar patterns were present in group 3 and group 5. We observed differences in self-monitoring of blood glucose, insulin therapy, daily insulin dose, physical activity, BMI SD score, body-height SD score, and migration background across all HbA 1c trajectories (all P ≤ 0.001). No sex differences were present. Comparing groups with similar initial HbA 1c but different patterns, groups with higher HbA 1c increase were characterized by lower frequency of self-monitoring of blood glucose and physical activity and reduced height (all P demographics were related to different HbA 1c courses. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

  14. Stratal Control Volumes and Stratal Control Trajectories: A New Method to Constrain, Understand and Reconcile Results from Stratigraphic Outcrop Analysis, Subsurface Analysis and Analogue and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, P. M.; Steel, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    control volume and trajectories constructed from outcrop analysis, subsurface analysis and experimental models may help the convergence, reconciliation and future evolution of these different approaches.

  15. A mathematical model for describing the retinal nerve fiber bundle trajectories in the human eye: average course, variability, and influence of refraction, optic disc size and optic disc position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansonius, Nomdo M; Schiefer, Julia; Nevalainen, Jukka; Paetzold, Jens; Schiefer, Ulrich

    2012-12-01

    Previously we developed a mathematical model for describing the retinal nerve fiber bundle trajectories in the superior-temporal and inferior-temporal regions of the human retina, based on traced trajectories extracted from fundus photographs. Aims of the current study were to (i) validate the existing model, (ii) expand the model to the entire retina and (iii) determine the influence of refraction, optic disc size and optic disc position on the trajectories. A new set of fundus photographs was collected comprising 28 eyes of 28 subjects. From these 28 photographs, 625 trajectories were extracted. Trajectories in the temporal region of the retina were compared to the existing model. In this region, 347 of 399 trajectories (87%) were within the 95% central range of the existing model. The model was extended to the nasal region. With this extension, the model can now be applied to the entire retina that corresponds to the visual field as tested with standard automated perimetry (up to approximately 30° eccentricity). There was an asymmetry between the superior and inferior hemifields and a considerable location-specific inter-subject variability. In the nasal region, we found two "singularities", located roughly at the one and five o'clock positions for the right optic disc. Here, trajectories from relatively widespread areas of the retina converge. Associations between individual deviations from the model and refraction, optic disc size and optic disc position were studied with multiple linear regression. Refraction (P = 0.021) and possibly optic disc inclination (P = 0.09) influenced the trajectories in the superior-temporal region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Predictive Risk Modelling to Prevent Child Maltreatment and Other Adverse Outcomes for Service Users: Inside the 'Black Box' of Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillingham, Philip

    2016-06-01

    Recent developments in digital technology have facilitated the recording and retrieval of administrative data from multiple sources about children and their families. Combined with new ways to mine such data using algorithms which can 'learn', it has been claimed that it is possible to develop tools that can predict which individual children within a population are most likely to be maltreated. The proposed benefit is that interventions can then be targeted to the most vulnerable children and their families to prevent maltreatment from occurring. As expertise in predictive modelling increases, the approach may also be applied in other areas of social work to predict and prevent adverse outcomes for vulnerable service users. In this article, a glimpse inside the 'black box' of predictive tools is provided to demonstrate how their development for use in social work may not be straightforward, given the nature of the data recorded about service users and service activity. The development of predictive risk modelling (PRM) in New Zealand is focused on as an example as it may be the first such tool to be applied as part of ongoing reforms to child protection services.

  17. Relationship between metallothioneins and metals in a natural population of the clam Ruditapes decussatus from Sfax coast: a non-linear model using Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamza-Chaffai, A; Amiard, J C; Cosson, R P

    1999-06-01

    Cadmium, copper and zinc were determined concomitantly with metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs) in the subcellular fractions of Ruditapes decussatus digestive gland. This study covered 4 months and aimed to evaluate the effect of metal pollution and other factors such as sex, size and reproductive state on MTLP levels. Copper concentrations did not vary with month, however Cd and Zn concentrations showed high levels during August. Organisms showing low cadmium concentrations presented the highest cadmium percentages in the soluble fraction (SF) containing MTLPs. However for high cadmium concentrations, the insoluble fraction (IF) was implicated in cadmium association. MTLP levels varied according to the month, the sex and the size of the organisms. A non-linear model based on the Box-Cox transformation, was proposed to describe a positive and a significant relationship between MTLPs and the studied metals. A model including sex and size showed that these two factors affected MTLP levels, but were less important than metals. Males of R. decussatus showed higher significant correlations between MTLP levels and cadmium than females. Moreover, the effect of size and reproductive state on MTLP levels was less perceptible in males than in females. As a result, MTLPs in males of R. decussatus could be proposed as suitable biomarker for detecting metal contamination.

  18. Decommissioning a small glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, R.D.; McSherry, K.

    1985-11-01

    An account is given of dismantling a fuel fabrication glove box using simple tooling. The fissile content of the box was first measured by several non-destructive techniques. After cleaning, the box was dismantled using hand tools and finally packed for disposal. A record of operator radiation doses, the time taken for each stage of the operation and packing information is given. (author)

  19. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00377159; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  20. Using dynamic N-mixture models to test cavity limitation on northern flying squirrel demographic parameters using experimental nest box supplementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priol, Pauline; Mazerolle, Marc J; Imbeau, Louis; Drapeau, Pierre; Trudeau, Caroline; Ramière, Jessica

    2014-06-01

    Dynamic N-mixture models have been recently developed to estimate demographic parameters of unmarked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. We propose an application of the Dail and Madsen (2011: Biometrics, 67, 577-587) dynamic N-mixture model in a manipulative experiment using a before-after control-impact design (BACI). Specifically, we tested the hypothesis of cavity limitation of a cavity specialist species, the northern flying squirrel, using nest box supplementation on half of 56 trapping sites. Our main purpose was to evaluate the impact of an increase in cavity availability on flying squirrel population dynamics in deciduous stands in northwestern Québec with the dynamic N-mixture model. We compared abundance estimates from this recent approach with those from classic capture-mark-recapture models and generalized linear models. We compared apparent survival estimates with those from Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models. Average recruitment rate was 6 individuals per site after 4 years. Nevertheless, we found no effect of cavity supplementation on apparent survival and recruitment rates of flying squirrels. Contrary to our expectations, initial abundance was not affected by conifer basal area (food availability) and was negatively affected by snag basal area (cavity availability). Northern flying squirrel population dynamics are not influenced by cavity availability at our deciduous sites. Consequently, we suggest that this species should not be considered an indicator of old forest attributes in our study area, especially in view of apparent wide population fluctuations across years. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were similar to those from capture-mark-recapture models, although the latter had greater precision. Generalized linear mixed models produced lower abundance estimates, but revealed the same relationship between abundance and snag basal area. Apparent survival estimates from N-mixture models were higher and less precise

  1. The analytic solution of the firm's cost-minimization problem with box constraints and the Cobb-Douglas model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayón, L.; Grau, J. M.; Ruiz, M. M.; Suárez, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    One of the most well-known problems in the field of Microeconomics is the Firm's Cost-Minimization Problem. In this paper we establish the analytical expression for the cost function using the Cobb-Douglas model and considering maximum constraints for the inputs. Moreover we prove that it belongs to the class C1.

  2. Estimation of Transport Trajectory and Residence Time in Large River–Lake Systems: Application to Poyang Lake (China Using a Combined Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunliang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The biochemical processes and associated water quality in many lakes mainly depend on their transport behaviors. Most existing methodologies for investigating transport behaviors are based on physically based numerical models. The pollutant transport trajectory and residence time of Poyang Lake are thought to have important implications for the steadily deteriorating water quality and the associated rapid environmental changes during the flood period. This study used a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21 in conjunction with transport and particle-tracking sub-models to provide comprehensive investigation of transport behaviors in Poyang Lake. Model simulations reveal that the lake’s prevailing water flow patterns cause a unique transport trajectory that primarily develops from the catchment river mouths to the downstream area along the lake’s main flow channels, similar to a river-transport behavior. Particle tracking results show that the mean residence time of the lake is 89 days during July–September. The effect of the Yangtze River (the effluent of the lake on the residence time is stronger than that of the catchment river inflows. The current study represents a first attempt to use a combined model approach to provide insights into the transport behaviors for a large river–lake system, given proposals to manage the pollutant inputs both directly to the lake and catchment rivers.

  3. Boxed Permutation Pattern Matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amit, Mika; Bille, Philip; Cording, Patrick Hagge

    2016-01-01

    the goal is to only find the boxed subsequences of T that are order-isomorphic to P. This problem was introduced by Bruner and Lackner who showed that it can be solved in O(n3) time. Cho et al. [CPM 2015] gave an O(n2m) time algorithm and improved it to O(n2 logm). In this paper we present a solution...

  4. The Box Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter Vilhelm

    The velocity level in a room ventilated by jet ventilation is strongly influenced by the supply conditions. The momentum flow in the supply jets controls the air movement in the room and, therefore, it is very important that the inlet conditions and the numerical method can generate a satisfactor...... description of this momentum flow. The Box Method is a practical method for the description of an Air Terminal Device which will save grid points and ensure the right level of the momentum flow....

  5. Construction and properties of Box-Behnken designs

    OpenAIRE

    Jo, Jinnam

    1992-01-01

    Box-Behnken designs are used to estimate parameters in a second-order response surface model (Box and Behnken, 1960). These designs are formed by combining ideas from incomplete block designs (BIBD or PBIBD) and factorial experiments, specifically 2k full or 2k-1 fractional factorials. In this dissertation, a more general mathematical formulation of the Box-Behnken method is provided, a general expression for the coefficient matrix in the least squares analysis for estimatin...

  6. Repetitive Rockfall Trajectory Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Volkwein

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of rockfall trajectories are a standard procedure for evaluating rockfall hazards. For these simulations, corresponding software codes must be calibrated and evaluated based on field data. This study addresses methods of repeatable rockfall tests, and investigates whether it is possible to produce traceable and statistically analysable data. A testing series is described extensively covering how to conduct rockfall experiments and how certain elements of rockfall trajectories can be measured. The tests use acceleration and rotation sensors inside test blocks, a system to determine block positions over time, surveying measurements, and video recordings. All systems are evaluated regarding their usability in the field and for analyses. The highly detailed description of testing methods is the basis for sound understanding and reproducibility of the tests. This article serves as a reference for future publications and other rockfall field tests, both as a guide and as a basis for comparisons. First analyses deliver information on runout with a shadow angle ranging between 21 and 45 degrees for a slope consisting of homogeneous soft soil. A digital elevation model of the test site as well as point clouds of the used test blocks are part of this publication.

  7. Application of Box-Behnken design for modeling of lead adsorption onto unmodified and NaCl-modified zeolite NaA obtained from biosilica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzioğlu, Pinar; Yücel, Sevil; Öztürk, Mehmet

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the present study was to optimize lead adsorption onto zeolite NaA. For this purpose, to synthesize zeolite NaA under hydrothermal conditions, local wheat husk was precleaned with chemical treatment using hydrochloric acid solution. The unmodified (ZU) and NaCl-modified (ZN) zeolites were characterized by Brunauer-Emmett-Teller, scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. The optimization of adsorption process was examined using Box-Behnken Experimental Design in response surface methodology by Design Expert Version 7.0.0 (Stat-Ease, USA). The effects of initial lead (II) concentration, temperature, and time were selected as independent variables. Lack of fit test indicates that the quadratic regression model was significant with the high coefficients of determination values for both adsorbents. Optimum process conditions for lead (II) adsorption onto ZU and ZN were found to be 64.40°C and 64.80°C, respectively, and 90.80 min, and 350 mg L -1 initial lead(II) concentration for both adsorbents. Under these conditions, maximum adsorption capacities of ZU and ZN for lead (II) were 293.38 mg g -1 and 321.85 mg g -1 , respectively.

  8. Atmospheric photochemical reactivity and ozone production at two sites in Hong Kong: Application of a Master Chemical Mechanism-photochemical box model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Z. H.; Guo, H.; Lam, S. H. M.; Saunders, S. M.; Wang, T.

    2014-09-01

    A photochemical box model incorporating the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), constrained with a full suite of measurements, was developed to investigate the photochemical reactivity of volatile organic compounds at a semirural site (Mount Tai Mo Shan (TMS)) and an urban site (Tsuen Wan (TW)) in Hong Kong. The levels of ozone (O3) and its precursors, and the magnitudes of the reactivity of O3 precursors, revealed significant differences in the photochemistry at the two sites. Simulated peak hydroperoxyl radical (HO2) mixing ratios were similar at TW and TMS (p = 0.05), while the simulated hydroxyl radical (OH) mixing ratios were much higher at TW (p TMS, but at TW, both HCHO and O3 photolyses were found to be major contributors. By contrast, radical-radical reactions governed HOx radical losses at TMS, while at TW, the OH + NO2 reaction was found to dominate in the morning and the radical-radical reactions at noon. Overall, the conversion of NO to NO2 by HO2 dictated the O3 production at the two sites, while O3 destruction was dominated by the OH + NO2 reaction at TW, and at TMS, O3 photolysis and the O3 + HO2 reaction were the major mechanisms. The longer OH chain length at TMS indicated that more O3 was produced for each radical that was generated at this site.

  9. The Uncertain Role of Biogenic VOC for Boundary-Layer Ozone Concentration: Example Investigation of Emissions from Two Forest Types with a Box Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Bonn

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available High levels of air pollution including ground level ozone significantly reduce humans’ life expectancy and cause forest damage and decreased tree growth. The French Vosges and the German Black Forest are regions well-known for having the highest tropospheric ozone concentrations at remote forested sites in Central Europe. This box model study investigates the sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry calculations of derived ozone on differently resolved forest tree composition and volatile organic compound emissions. Representative conditions were chosen for the Upper Rhine area including the Alsatian Vosges/France and the Black Forest/Germany during summer. This study aims to answer the following question: What level of input detail for Alsace and Black Forest tree mixtures is required to accurately simulate ozone formation? While the French forest in Alsace—e.g., in the Vosges—emits isoprene to a substantially higher extent than the forest at the German site, total monoterpene emissions at the two sites are rather similar. However, the individual monoterpene structures, and therefore their reactivity, differs. This causes a higher ozone production rate for Vosges forest mixture conditions than for Black Forest tree mixtures at identical NOx levels, with the difference increasing with temperature. The difference in ozone formation is analyzed in detail and the short-comings of reduced descriptions are discussed. The outcome serves as a to-do-list to allow accurate future ozone predictions influenced by the climate adaptation of forests and the change in forest species composition.

  10. Succession of phytoplankton assemblages in relation to estuarine hydrodynamics in the Ría de Vigo: a box-model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Martín Miguez

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Two phytoplankton succession events (September-October 1993 and March 1994 in the Ría de Vigo were studied in relation to their hydrodynamic context. By means of a circulation box model we calculated horizontal and vertical residual fluxes as well as budgets of phytoplankton associated with them. This allowed us to assess the importance of the two factors involved in the selection processes: one hydrodynamic (dependent upon physical dispersion and one biogeochemical (involving all other processes such as growth, mortality and grazing. The first period was characterised by a downwelling event which produced a reversal of the estuarine circulation pattern (horizontal velocity = 4 km d-1 and downward velocities up to 9 m d-1. This provided suitable conditions for the blooming of Gymnodinium catenatum favoured by its capacity to swim, while the diatom community almost disappeared. The second period corresponded to an upwelling Æ relaxation sequence. During upwelling (horizontal velocity = 6 km d-1; upward velocities up to 12 m d-1, Thalassiosira spp. was dominant. It is suggested that the less energetic conditions associated with the relaxation event (horizontal velocity=1 km d-1; upward velocities < 1 m d-1 favoured the selection of Chatoceros spp. due to its lower sinking rate.

  11. Preparation of activated petroleum coke for removal of naphthenic acids model compounds: Box-Behnken design optimization of KOH activation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niasar, Hojatallah Seyedy; Li, Hanning; Das, Sreejon; Kasanneni, Tirumala Venkateswara Rao; Ray, Madhumita B; Xu, Chunbao Charles

    2018-04-01

    This study employed Box-Behnken design and response surface methodology to optimize activation parameters for the production of activated petroleum coke (APC) adsorbent from petroleum coke (PC) to achieve highest adsorption capacity for three model naphthenic acids. Activated petroleum coke (APC) adsorbent with a BET surface area of 1726 m 2 /g and total pore volume of 0.85 cc/g was produced at the optimum activation conditions (KOH/coke mass ratio) of 3.0, activation temperature 790 °C, and activation time 3.47 h). Effects of the activation parameters on the adsorption pefromances (adsortion capaciy and kinetics) were investigated. With the APC obtained at the optimum activation condition, the maximum adsorption capacity of 451, 362, and 320 (mg/g) was achieved for 2-naphthoic acid, diphenylacetic acid and cyclohexanepentanoic acid (CP), respectively. Although, generally APC adsorbents with a higher specific surface area and pore volume provide better adsorption capacity, the textural properties (surface areas and pore volume) are not the only parameters determining the APC adsorbents' adsorption capacity. Other parameters such as surface functionalities play effective roles on the adsorption capacity of the produced APC adsorbents for NAs. The KOH activation process, in particular the acid washing step, distinctly reduced the sulfur and metals contents in the raw PC, decreasing the leaching potential of metals from APC adsorbents during adsorption. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Determination of deep water circulation in the East Atlantic Ocean by means of a box-model based evaluation of C-14 measurements and other tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlitzer, R.

    1984-01-01

    Radiocarbon (C-14) measurements proved to be an efficient means of determining the average, large-area deep water circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The thesis under review explains and discusses measurements carried out in the equatorial West Atlantic and North Atlantic Ocean. The samples have been taken during mission 56 of the RS 'meteor' in spring 1981. The gas has been obtained by vacuum extraction and the measurements have been performed in proportional counter tubes, the error to be accounted for amounting to 2per mille. These measured data, together with measurements of the potential temperatures, the silicate and CO 2 concentrations, and measured data from the South-East Atlantic Ocean, have been used to calculate on the basis of a box model of the Atlantic Ocean the deep water flow from the West to the East Atlantic Ocean, the deep water circulation between the various East Atlantic basins, and the turbulent diffusion coefficients required to parameterize the deep water mixing processes. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Language, motor and cognitive development of extremely preterm children: modeling individual growth trajectories over the first three years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansavini, Alessandra; Pentimonti, Jill; Justice, Laura; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Survival rate of extremely low gestational age (ELGA) newborns has increased over 80% in the last 15 years, but its consequences on the short- and longer-term developmental competencies may be severe. The aim of this study was to describe growth trajectories of linguistic, motor and cognitive skills among ELGA children, compared to full-term (FT) peers, from the first to the third year of life, a crucial period for development. Growth curve analysis was used to examine individual and group differences in terms of initial status at 12 months and rate of growth through the second and the third year of life with five points of assessment. Twenty-eight monolingual Italian children, of whom 17 were ELGA (mean GA 25.7 weeks) and 11 were FT children, were assessed through the BSID-III at 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months for language skills and at 12, 24 and 30 months for motor and cognitive skills. ELGA children presented significantly lower scores than FT peers in language, motor and cognitive skills and they did not overcome their disadvantage by 3 years, even if their corrected age was taken into account. Concerning growth curves, in motor development a significant increasing divergence was found showing a Matthew effect with the preterm sample falling further behind the FT sample. In linguistic and cognitive development, instead, a stable gap between the two samples was found. In addition, great inter-individual differences in rate of change were observed for language development in both samples. Our findings highlight the theoretical and clinical relevance of analyzing, through growth curve analyses, the developmental trajectories of ELGA children in language skills taking into account their inter-individual variability also across motor and cognitive domains. After reading this article, the reader will interpret: (a) characteristics and growth trajectories of ELGA children from the first to the third year of life with respect to FT children in language, motor and

  14. Classical Trajectories and Quantum Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielnik, Bogdan; Reyes, Marco A.

    1996-01-01

    A classical model of the Schrodinger's wave packet is considered. The problem of finding the energy levels corresponds to a classical manipulation game. It leads to an approximate but non-perturbative method of finding the eigenvalues, exploring the bifurcations of classical trajectories. The role of squeezing turns out decisive in the generation of the discrete spectra.

  15. Rates and regimes of photochemical ozone production over Central East China in June 2006: a box model analysis using comprehensive measurements of ozone precursors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kanaya

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available An observation-based box model approach was undertaken to estimate concentrations of OH, HO2, and RO2 radicals and the net photochemical production rate of ozone at the top of Mount Tai, located in the middle of Central East China, in June 2006. The model calculation was constrained by the measurements of O3, H2O, CO, NO, NO2, hydrocarbon, HCHO, and CH3CHO concentrations, and temperature and J values. The net production rate of ozone was estimated to be 6.4 ppb h−1 as a 6-h average (09:00–15:00 CST, suggesting 58±37 ppb of ozone is produced in one day. Thus the daytime buildup of ozone recorded at the mountain top as ~23 ppb on average is likely affected by in situ photochemistry as well as by the upward transport of polluted air mass in the daytime. On days with high ozone concentrations (hourly values exceeding 100 ppb at least once, in situ photochemistry was more active than it was on low ozone days, suggesting that in situ photochemistry is an important factor controlling ozone concentrations. Sensitivity model runs for which different NOx and hydrocarbon concentrations were assumed suggested that the ozone production occurred normally under NOx-limited conditions, with some exceptional periods (under volatile-organic-compound-limited conditions in which there was fresh pollution. We also examined the possible influence of the heterogeneous loss of gaseous HO2 radicals in contact with aerosol particle surfaces on the rate and regimes of ozone production.

  16. The influence of work-family conflict trajectories on self-rated health trajectories in Switzerland: a life course approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullati, Stéphane

    2014-07-01

    Self-rated health (SRH) trajectories tend to decline over a lifetime. Moreover, the Cumulative Advantage and Disadvantage (CAD) model indicates that SRH trajectories are known to consistently diverge along socioeconomic positions (SEP) over the life course. However, studies of working adults to consider the influence of work and family conflict (WFC) on SRH trajectories are scarce. We test the CAD model and hypothesise that SRH trajectories diverge over time according to socioeconomic positions and WFC trajectories accentuate this divergence. Using longitudinal data from the Swiss Household Panel (N = 2327 working respondents surveyed from 2004 to 2010), we first examine trajectories of SRH and potential divergence over time across age, gender, SEP and family status using latent growth curve analysis. Second, we assess changes in SRH trajectories in relation to changes in WFC trajectories and divergence in SRH trajectories according to gender, SEP and family status using parallel latent growth curve analysis. Three measures of WFC are used: exhaustion after work, difficulty disconnecting from work, and work interference in private family obligations. The results show that SRH trajectories slowly decline over time and that the rate of change is not influenced by age, gender or SEP, a result which does not support the CAD model. SRH trajectories are significantly correlated with exhaustion after work trajectories but not the other two WFC measures. When exhaustion after work trajectories are taken into account, SRH trajectories of higher educated people decline slower compared to less educated people, supporting the CAD hypothesis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Relationship between trajectories of serum albumin levels and technique failure according to diabetic status in peritoneal dialysis patients: A joint modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Khoshhali

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: In peritoneal dialysis, technique failure is an important metric to be considered. This study was performed in order to identify the relationship between trajectories of serum albumin levels and peritoneal dialysis technique failure on end-stage renal disease patients according to diabetic status. Furthermore, this study was performed to reveal predictors of serum albumin and technique failure simultaneously. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 300 (189 non-diabetic and 111 diabetic end-stage renal disease patients on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis treated in Al-Zahra Hospital, Isfahan, Iran, from May 2005 to March 2015. Bayesian joint modeling was carried out in order to determine the relationship between trajectories of serum albumin levels and peritoneal dialysis technique failure in the patients according to diabetic status. Death from all causes was considered as a competing risk. Results: Using joint modeling approach, a relationship between trajectories of serum albumin with hazard of transfer to hemodialysis was estimated as −0.720 (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.971 to −0.472 for diabetic and −0.784 (95% CI, −0.963 to −0.587 for non-diabetic patients. From our findings it was showed that predictors of low serum albumin over time were time on peritoneal dialysis for diabetic patients and increase in age and time on peritoneal dialysis, history of previous hemodialysis, and lower body mass index in non-diabetic patients. Conclusion: The results of current study showed that controlling serum albumin over time in non-diabetic and diabetic patients undergoing continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis treatment can decrease risk of adverse outcomes during the peritoneal dialysis period.

  18. Hydrogen atom within spherical boxes with penetrable walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ley-Koo, E.; Rubinstein, S.

    1979-01-01

    We study a model for the hydrogen atom confined within spherical boxes with penetrable walls. The potential consists of the Coulomb potential inside the box and a constant potential outside the box; the Schroedinger equation admits analytical solutions in both regions. The energy eigenvalues and eigenfunctions for the lowest states of the system are determined numerically for boxes of different sizes and penetrabilities. In addition, we also evaluate the hyperfine splitting, nuclear magnetic shielding, polarizability and pressure of the system and investigate the effect of the confinement on these atomic properties

  19. Outside the box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pichon, Max

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Queensland-based Hydrasyst wants to take its motto of 'Do more with less' into the greywater sector with a new water recycling and energy recovery technology launched in November, called The Grey Box. The company is initially targeting large industrial laundries as they are major generators of greywater and heavy energy users, but it has ambitions well beyond that. The average commercial laundry consumes 1-5ML of water a week, using about 16 litres for every 1kg of clothing washed. Hydrasyst director Stephen Balemi said The Grey Box can slash the volume by 80 per cent. While he was reluctant to disclose too much technical detail, he claimed it is the only technology serving the $1 billion a year laundry sector that combines microfiltration / ultrafiltration membrane technology and energy reduction components. The heart of the system is a ceramic hollow fibre membrane. Balemi said it produces higher filtrate quality than competitors, meaning the recycled water can be reused more often, and can process feed water of up to 70°C compared to typical ultrafiltration membranes that cap out at about 38°C. This means the recycled water can be reused at higher temperatures, with the heat in it recovered by a precise steam heater built into The Grey Box. “As an overall measure, it saves 80 per cent of the water that is processed and saves 20 per cent of the energy,” Balemi said. Four systems have already been installed, with one going into a large commercial laundry in south Queensland and another to AMP's state-of-the-art 6 Green Star building in Brisbane. “We can modify them slightly to suit the industry, depending on the quality of raw water they are trying to recycle and also depending on the size of the project,,” said Balemi. Where many organisations build systems to specification, The Grey Box is offered in three standard sizes: the HY20 (20kL per day, based on a 10 hour day), HY80 (80kL per day) and HY130 (130kL per day). They can be used

  20. Trajectories of martian habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, Charles S

    2014-02-01

    Beginning from two plausible starting points-an uninhabited or inhabited Mars-this paper discusses the possible trajectories of martian habitability over time. On an uninhabited Mars, the trajectories follow paths determined by the abundance of uninhabitable environments and uninhabited habitats. On an inhabited Mars, the addition of a third environment type, inhabited habitats, results in other trajectories, including ones where the planet remains inhabited today or others where planetary-scale life extinction occurs. By identifying different trajectories of habitability, corresponding hypotheses can be described that allow for the various trajectories to be disentangled and ultimately a determination of which trajectory Mars has taken and the changing relative abundance of its constituent environments.

  1. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais Demand forecasting: an application of the Box-Jenkins models in the technical assistance of personal computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Werner

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.Demand forecasting is an important tool to aid on the determination of necessary resources of a given company. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of a personal computer repair company and provide a forecast for the number of service calls. The company studied presents three segments of clients: contracts, warranty, and on-call. As each client has it own characteristics, in order to better represent tendency and seasonality behavior through the Box-Jenkins models, a specific forecasting model was developed for each segment. The choice of the optimum models were based into graphic analysis and statistical tests, which lead to the decision of adopting the AR(1 model to foresee the number of contract clients, the ARIMA(2,1,0 model for warranty clients and the SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 seasonal model for on-call clients.

  2. Trajectories of Intimate Partner Violence Victimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin M. Swartout

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purposes of this study were to assess the extent to which latent trajectories of female intimate partner violence (IPV victimization exist; and, if so, use negative childhood experiences to predict trajectory membership.Methods: We collected data from 1,575 women at 5 time-points regarding experiences during adolescence and their 4 years of college. We used latent class growth analysis to fit a series of personcentered, longitudinal models ranging from 1 to 5 trajectories. Once the best-fitting model was selected, we used negative childhood experience variables—sexual abuse, physical abuse, and witnessing domestic violence—to predict most-likely trajectory membership via multinomial logistic regression.Results: A 5-trajectory model best fit the data both statistically and in terms of interpretability. The trajectories across time were interpreted as low or no IPV, low to moderate IPV, moderate to low IPV, high to moderate IPV, and high and increasing IPV, respectively. Negative childhood experiences differentiated trajectory membership, somewhat, with childhood sexual abuse as a consistent predictor of membership in elevated IPV trajectories.Conclusion: Our analyses show how IPV risk changes over time and in different ways. These differential patterns of IPV suggest the need for prevention strategies tailored for women that consider victimization experiences in childhood and early adulthood. [West J Emerg Med. 2012;13(3:272–277.

  3. Lunar and interplanetary trajectories

    CERN Document Server

    Biesbroek, Robin

    2016-01-01

    This book provides readers with a clear description of the types of lunar and interplanetary trajectories, and how they influence satellite-system design. The description follows an engineering rather than a mathematical approach and includes many examples of lunar trajectories, based on real missions. It helps readers gain an understanding of the driving subsystems of interplanetary and lunar satellites. The tables and graphs showing features of trajectories make the book easy to understand. .

  4. Investigating the Influence of Box-Constraints on the Solution of a Total Variation Model via an Efficient Primal-Dual Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Langer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of adding a box-constraint to the minimization of functionals consisting of a data-fidelity term and a total variation regularization term. In particular, we show that in certain applications an additional box-constraint does not effect the solution at all, i.e., the solution is the same whether a box-constraint is used or not. On the contrary, i.e., for applications where a box-constraint may have influence on the solution, we investigate how much it effects the quality of the restoration, especially when the regularization parameter, which weights the importance of the data term and the regularizer, is chosen suitable. In particular, for such applications, we consider the case of a squared L 2 data-fidelity term. For computing a minimizer of the respective box-constrained optimization problems a primal-dual semi-smooth Newton method is presented, which guarantees superlinear convergence.

  5. Urban water trajectories

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Adriana; Hofmann, Pascale; Teh, Tse-Hui

    2017-01-01

    Water is an essential element in the future of cities. It shapes cities’ locations, form, ecology, prosperity and health. The changing nature of urbanisation, climate change, water scarcity, environmental values, globalisation and social justice mean that the models of provision of water services and infrastructure that have dominated for the past two centuries are increasingly infeasible. Conventional arrangements for understanding and managing water in cities are being subverted by a range of natural, technological, political, economic and social changes. The prognosis for water in cities remains unclear, and multiple visions and discourses are emerging to fill the space left by the certainty of nineteenth century urban water planning and engineering. This book documents a sample of those different trajectories, in terms of water transformations, option, services and politics. Water is a key element shaping urban form, economies and lifestyles, part of the ongoing transformation of cities. Cities are face...

  6. Effects of subconjunctival administration of anti-high mobility group box 1 on dry eye in a mouse model of Sjӧgren's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeong Hwan; Kim, Dong Hyun; Jeong, Hyun Jeong; Ryu, Jin Suk; Kim, Yu Jeong; Oh, Joo Youn; Kim, Mee Kum; Wee, Won Ryang

    2017-01-01

    Extracellular high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) acts as a damage associated molecular pattern molecule through the Toll-like receptor to promote autoreactive B cell activation, which may be involved in the pathogenesis of Sjӧgren's syndrome. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of subconjunctival administration of anti-HMGB1 on dry eye in a mouse model of Sjӧgren's syndrome. Ten weeks-old NOD.B10.H2b mice were subconjunctivally injected with 0.02 to 2 μg of anti-HMGB1 antibodies or PBS twice a week for two consecutive weeks. Tear volume and corneal staining scores were measured and compared between before- and after-treatment. Goblet cell density was counted in PAS stained forniceal conjunctiva and inflammatory foci score (>50 cells/focus) was measured in extraorbital glands. Flow cytometry was performed to evaluate the changes in BrdU+ cells, IL-17-, IL-10-, or IFNγ-secreting cells, functional B cells, and IL-22 secreting innate lymphoid cells (ILC3s) in cervical lymph nodes. The level of IL-22 in intraorbital glands was measured by ELISA. Injection of 2 μg or 0.02 μg anti-HMGB1 attenuated corneal epithelial erosions and increased tear secretion (pdry eye. The improvement of dry eye may involve an increase of ILC3s, rather than modulation of B or plasma cells, as shown using a mouse model of Sjӧgren's syndrome.

  7. Simultaneous lidar observations of a polar stratospheric cloud on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains and microphysical box model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Blum

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC for polar ozone depletion is well established. Lidar experiments are well suited to observe and classify polar stratospheric clouds. On 5 January 2005 a PSC was observed simultaneously on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains by ground-based lidars. This cloud was composed of liquid particles with a mixture of solid particles in the upper part of the cloud. Multi-colour measurements revealed that the liquid particles had a mode radius of r≈300 nm, a distribution width of σ≈1.04 and an altitude dependent number density of N≈2–20 cm−3. Simulations with a microphysical box model show that the cloud had formed about 20 h before observation. High HNO3 concentrations in the PSC of 40–50 weight percent were simulated in the altitude regions where the liquid particles were observed, while this concentration was reduced to about 10 weight percent in that part of the cloud where a mixture between solid and liquid particles was observed by the lidar. The model simulations also revealed a very narrow particle size distribution with values similar to the lidar observations. Below and above the cloud almost no HNO3 uptake was simulated. Although the PSC shows distinct wave signatures, no gravity wave activity was observed in the temperature profiles measured by the lidars and meteorological analyses support this observation. The observed cloud must have formed in a wave field above Iceland about 20 h prior to the measurements and the cloud wave pattern was advected by the background wind to Scandinavia. In this wave field above Iceland temperatures potentially dropped below the ice formation temperature, so that ice clouds may have formed which can act as condensation nuclei for the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT particles observed at the cloud top above Esrange.

  8. Simultaneous lidar observations of a polar stratospheric cloud on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains and microphysical box model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Blum

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC for polar ozone depletion is well established. Lidar experiments are well suited to observe and classify polar stratospheric clouds. On 5 January 2005 a PSC was observed simultaneously on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains by ground-based lidars. This cloud was composed of liquid particles with a mixture of solid particles in the upper part of the cloud. Multi-colour measurements revealed that the liquid particles had a mode radius of r≈300 nm, a distribution width of σ≈1.04 and an altitude dependent number density of N≈2–20 cm−3. Simulations with a microphysical box model show that the cloud had formed about 20 h before observation. High HNO3 concentrations in the PSC of 40–50 weight percent were simulated in the altitude regions where the liquid particles were observed, while this concentration was reduced to about 10 weight percent in that part of the cloud where a mixture between solid and liquid particles was observed by the lidar. The model simulations also revealed a very narrow particle size distribution with values similar to the lidar observations. Below and above the cloud almost no HNO3 uptake was simulated. Although the PSC shows distinct wave signatures, no gravity wave activity was observed in the temperature profiles measured by the lidars and meteorological analyses support this observation. The observed cloud must have formed in a wave field above Iceland about 20 h prior to the measurements and the cloud wave pattern was advected by the background wind to Scandinavia. In this wave field above Iceland temperatures potentially dropped below the ice formation temperature, so that ice clouds may have formed which can act as condensation nuclei for the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT particles observed at the cloud top above Esrange.

  9. Surface reflectance drives nest box temperature profiles and thermal suitability for target wildlife.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R Griffiths

    Full Text Available Thermal properties of tree hollows play a major role in survival and reproduction of hollow-dependent fauna. Artificial hollows (nest boxes are increasingly being used to supplement the loss of natural hollows; however, the factors that drive nest box thermal profiles have received surprisingly little attention. We investigated how differences in surface reflectance influenced temperature profiles of nest boxes painted three different colors (dark-green, light-green, and white: total solar reflectance 5.9%, 64.4%, and 90.3% respectively using boxes designed for three groups of mammals: insectivorous bats, marsupial gliders and brushtail possums. Across the three different box designs, dark-green (low reflectance boxes experienced the highest average and maximum daytime temperatures, had the greatest magnitude of variation in daytime temperatures within the box, and were consistently substantially warmer than light-green boxes (medium reflectance, white boxes (high reflectance, and ambient air temperatures. Results from biophysical model simulations demonstrated that variation in diurnal temperature profiles generated by painting boxes either high or low reflectance colors could have significant ecophysiological consequences for animals occupying boxes, with animals in dark-green boxes at high risk of acute heat-stress and dehydration during extreme heat events. Conversely in cold weather, our modelling indicated that there are higher cumulative energy costs for mammals, particularly smaller animals, occupying light-green boxes. Given their widespread use as a conservation tool, we suggest that before boxes are installed, consideration should be given to the effect of color on nest box temperature profiles, and the resultant thermal suitability of boxes for wildlife, particularly during extremes in weather. Managers of nest box programs should consider using several different colors and installing boxes across a range of both orientations and

  10. Faster Black-Box Algorithms Through Higher Arity Operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doerr, Benjamin; Johannsen, Daniel; Kötzing, Timo

    2011-01-01

    We extend the work of Lehre and Witt (GECCO 2010) on the unbiased black-box model by considering higher arity variation operators. In particular, we show that already for binary operators the black-box complexity of LeadingOnes drops from (n2) for unary operators to O(n log n). For OneMax, the (n...

  11. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century....... The increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...... buffer material to stabilize the internal RH, a more recent box containing no added buffer material, and, in recent times, boxes with an altered gas content. Another concern is the appearance (aesthetics) of the box....

  12. Box-particle intensity filter

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, Marek; Gning, Amadou; Mihaylova, Lyudmila; Cremers, Daniel; Koch, Wofgang; Streit, Roy

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multi-target tracking, called box-particle intensity filter (box-iFilter). The approach is able to cope with unknown clutter, false alarms and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic and data association uncertainty. The box-iFilter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The low particle number enables thi...

  13. The Classroom Animal: Box Turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, David C.

    1986-01-01

    Provides basic information on the anatomy, physiology, behaviors, and distribution patterns of the box turtle. Offers suggestions for the turtle's care and maintenance in a classroom environment. (ML)

  14. Boxing-related head injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayarao, Mayur; Chin, Lawrence S; Cantu, Robert C

    2010-10-01

    Fatalities in boxing are most often due to traumatic brain injury that occurs in the ring. In the past 30 years, significant improvements in ringside and medical equipment, safety, and regulations have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the fatality rate. Nonetheless, the rate of boxing-related head injuries, particularly concussions, remains unknown, due in large part to its variability in clinical presentation. Furthermore, the significance of repeat concussions sustained when boxing is just now being understood. In this article, we identify the clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, and management of boxing-related head injuries, and discuss preventive strategies to reduce head injuries sustained by boxers.

  15. PANTHER. Trajectory Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rintoul, Mark Daniel [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilson, Andrew T. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Valicka, Christopher G. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kegelmeyer, W. Philip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shead, Timothy M. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Newton, Benjamin D. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Czuchlewski, Kristina Rodriguez [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-09-01

    We want to organize a body of trajectories in order to identify, search for, classify and predict behavior among objects such as aircraft and ships. Existing compari- son functions such as the Fr'echet distance are computationally expensive and yield counterintuitive results in some cases. We propose an approach using feature vectors whose components represent succinctly the salient information in trajectories. These features incorporate basic information such as total distance traveled and distance be- tween start/stop points as well as geometric features related to the properties of the convex hull, trajectory curvature and general distance geometry. Additionally, these features can generally be mapped easily to behaviors of interest to humans that are searching large databases. Most of these geometric features are invariant under rigid transformation. We demonstrate the use of different subsets of these features to iden- tify trajectories similar to an exemplar, cluster a database of several hundred thousand trajectories, predict destination and apply unsupervised machine learning algorithms.

  16. Developmental Trajectories of Childhood Obesity and Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, David Y. C.; Lanza, H. Isabella; Wright-Volel, Kynna; Anglin, M. Douglas

    2013-01-01

    Using group-based trajectory modeling, this study examined 5156 adolescents from the child sample of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to identify developmental trajectories of obesity from ages 6-18 and evaluate associations of such trajectories with risk behaviors and psychosocial health in adolescence. Four distinctive obesity…

  17. Acsys in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briegel, C.; Finstrom, D.; Hendricks, B.; King, C.; Lackey, S.; Neswold, R.; Nicklaus, D.; Patrick, J.; Petrov, A.; Rechenmacher, R.; Schumann, C.; Smedinghoff, J.

    2012-01-01

    The Accelerator Control System (ACSYS) at Fermilab has evolved to enable this relatively large control system to be encapsulated into a 'box' such as a laptop. The goal was to provide a platform isolated from the 'online' control system. This platform can be used internally for making major upgrades and modifications without impacting operations. It also provides a stand-alone environment for research and development including a turnkey control system for collaborators. Over time, the code base running on Scientific Linux has enabled all the salient features of the Fermilab's control system to be captured in an off-the-shelf laptop. The anticipated additional benefits of packaging the system include improved maintenance, reliability, documentation, and future enhancements. (authors)

  18. Boxing with Bell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-04-01

    When Protech Mining moved onto a greenfields site near Ermelo in mid-November last year to start work on the establishment of a box cut for an underground bituminous coal and anthracite mine for Delta Colliery, the company could not have foreseen the difficulties it was to encounter from the unusually high rainfall which fell, almost without abatement, from the time the first sod was turned. Production at the so called Mooiplants mine will commence in March 2001. Mining will take place at a maximum depth of 47 m and coal will be extracted from underground by two conveyor belts and stockpiled. Bell B40 CM mining trucks and an 18 Bell B20 articulated dump truck will be in the haulage fleet. 3 photos.

  19. Visiting Vehicle Ground Trajectory Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Dustin

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Visiting Vehicle Group needed a targeting tool for vehicles that rendezvous with the ISS. The Visiting Vehicle Ground Trajectory targeting tool provides the ability to perform both realtime and planning operations for the Visiting Vehicle Group. This tool provides a highly reconfigurable base, which allows the Visiting Vehicle Group to perform their work. The application is composed of a telemetry processing function, a relative motion function, a targeting function, a vector view, and 2D/3D world map type graphics. The software tool provides the ability to plan a rendezvous trajectory for vehicles that visit the ISS. It models these relative trajectories using planned and realtime data from the vehicle. The tool monitors ongoing rendezvous trajectory relative motion, and ensures visiting vehicles stay within agreed corridors. The software provides the ability to update or re-plan a rendezvous to support contingency operations. Adding new parameters and incorporating them into the system was previously not available on-the-fly. If an unanticipated capability wasn't discovered until the vehicle was flying, there was no way to update things.

  20. DLESE Teaching Box Pilot Project: Developing a Replicable Model for Collaboratively Creating Innovative Instructional Sequences Using Exemplary Resources in the Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weingroff, M.

    2004-12-01

    Before the advent of digital libraries, it was difficult for teachers to find suitable high-quality resources to use in their teaching. Digital libraries such as DLESE have eased the task by making high quality resources more easily accessible and providing search mechanisms that allow teachers to 'fine tune' the criteria over which they search. Searches tend to return lists of resources with some contextualizing information. However, teachers who are teaching 'out of discipline' or who have minimal training in science often need additional support to know how to use and sequence them. The Teaching Box Pilot Project was developed to address these concerns, bringing together educators, scientists, and instructional designers in a partnership to build an online framework to fully support innovative units of instruction about the Earth system. Each box integrates DLESE resources and activities, teaching tips, standards, concepts, teaching outcomes, reviews, and assessment information. Online templates and best practice guidelines are being developed that will enable teachers to create their own boxes or customize existing ones. Two boxes have been developed so far, one on weather for high school students, and one on the evidence for plate tectonics for middle schoolers. The project has met with significant enthusiasm and interest, and we hope to expand it by involving individual teachers, school systems, pre-service programs, and universities in the development and use of teaching boxes. A key ingredient in the project's success has been the close collaboration between the partners, each of whom has brought unique experiences, perspectives, knowledge, and skills to the project. This first effort involved teachers in the San Francisco Bay area, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, San Francisco State University, U.S. Geological Survey, and DLESE. This poster will allow participants to explore one of the teaching boxes. We will discuss how the boxes were

  1. Highly Accurate Measurement of Projectile Trajectories

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leathem, J

    1997-01-01

    .... The method has been extensively used for free flight testing of weapon models. This report describes the on board instrumentation, the range instrumentation and the experimental procedure used to carry out the trajectory measurements...

  2. Multi-objective trajectory optimization of Space Manoeuvre Vehicle using adaptive differential evolution and modified game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Runqi; Savvaris, Al; Tsourdos, Antonios; Chai, Senchun

    2017-07-01

    Highly constrained trajectory optimization for Space Manoeuvre Vehicles (SMV) is a challenging problem. In practice, this problem becomes more difficult when multiple mission requirements are taken into account. Because of the nonlinearity in the dynamic model and even the objectives, it is usually hard for designers to generate a compromised trajectory without violating strict path and box constraints. In this paper, a new multi-objective SMV optimal control model is formulated and parameterized using combined shooting-collocation technique. A modified game theory approach, coupled with an adaptive differential evolution algorithm, is designed in order to generate the pareto front of the multi-objective trajectory optimization problem. In addition, to improve the quality of obtained solutions, a control logic is embedded in the framework of the proposed approach. Several existing multi-objective evolutionary algorithms are studied and compared with the proposed method. Simulation results indicate that without driving the solution out of the feasible region, the proposed method can perform better in terms of convergence ability and convergence speed than its counterparts. Moreover, the quality of the pareto set generated using the proposed method is higher than other multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, which means the newly proposed algorithm is more attractive for solving multi-criteria SMV trajectory planning problem.

  3. Big earth-observation data analytics for modelling pan-tropical land-use change trajectories for newly deforested areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coca Castro, Alejandro; Reymondin, Louis; Rebetez, Julien; Fabio Satizabal Mejia, Hector; Perez-Uribe, Andres; Mulligan, Mark; Smith, Thomas; Hyman, Glenn

    2017-04-01

    Global land use monitoring is important to the the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The latest advances in storage and manipulation of big earth-observation data have been key to developing multiple operational forest monitoring initiatives such as FORMA, Terra-i and Global Forest Change. Although the data provided by these systems are useful for identifying and estimating newly deforested areas (from 2000), they do not provide details about the land use to which these deforested areas are transitioned. This information is critical to understand the biodiversity and ecosystem services impact of deforestation and the resulting impacts on human wellbeing, locally and downstream. With the aim of contributing to current forest monitoring initiatives, this research presents a set of experimental case studies in Latin America which integrate existing land-change information derived from remote sensing image and aerial photography/ground datasets, high-temporal resolution MODIS data, advanced machine learning (i.e deep learning) and big data technologies (i.e. Hadoop and Spark) to assess land-use change trajectories in newly deforested areas in near real time.

  4. What Makes a Better Box?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Richard; Everett, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Every morning, many Americans start their day with a bowl of cereal. Some spend time while they eat breakfast reading the back of the cereal box, but few consider its size, shape, and construction, or realize that it was designed by an engineer. This article describes a lesson in which students design, build, and critique cereal boxes. The lesson…

  5. Spirit Boxes: Expressions of Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMuro, Ted

    1984-01-01

    After studying the culture and art of the ancient civilizations of South America, Mesopotamia, Greece, and Egypt, secondary level art students made spirit boxes as expressions of the various cultures. How to make the boxes and how to prepare the face molds are described. (RM)

  6. Relativistic particle in a box

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto, P.; Fiolhais, Carlos; Gil, Victor

    1996-01-01

    The problem of a relativistic spin 1/2 particle confined to a one-dimensional box is solved in a way that resembles closely the solution of the well known quantum-mechanical textbook problem of a non-relativistic particle in a box. The energy levels and probability density are computed and compared with the non-relativistic case

  7. Trajectory Browser Website

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Cyrus; Jaroux, Belgacem A.

    2012-01-01

    The Trajectory Browser is a web-based tool developed at the NASA Ames Research Center to be used for the preliminary assessment of trajectories to small-bodies and planets and for providing relevant launch date, time-of-flight and V requirements. The site hosts a database of transfer trajectories from Earth to asteroids and planets for various types of missions such as rendezvous, sample return or flybys. A search engine allows the user to find trajectories meeting desired constraints on the launch window, mission duration and delta V capability, while a trajectory viewer tool allows the visualization of the heliocentric trajectory and the detailed mission itinerary. The anticipated user base of this tool consists primarily of scientists and engineers designing interplanetary missions in the context of pre-phase A studies, particularly for performing accessibility surveys to large populations of small-bodies. The educational potential of the website is also recognized for academia and the public with regards to trajectory design, a field that has generally been poorly understood by the public. The website is currently hosted on NASA-internal URL http://trajbrowser.arc.nasa.gov/ with plans for a public release as soon as development is complete.

  8. Channel box dimension measuring method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshima, Hirotake; Jo, Hiroto.

    1994-01-01

    The present invention provides a method for measuring the entire length of a channel box of a fuel assembly of a BWR type reactor. Namely, four sensors are used as one set that generate ultrasonic waves from oblique upper portion, oblique lower portion, upper portion and lower portion of the channel box respectively. The distances between the four sensors and each of the portions of the channel box are measured respectively for both of a reference member and a member to be measured. The entire length of the channel box is measured by calculating the measured values and the angles of the obliquely disposed sensors according to a predetermined formula. According to the method of the present invention, the inclination of the channel box to be measured can be corrected. In addition, accuracy of the measurement is improved and the measuring time is saved as well as the measuring device and operation can be simplified. (I.S.)

  9. Long range trajectories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, P. W.; Jessup, E. A.; White, R. E. [Air Resources Field Research Office, Las Vegas, Nevada (United States)

    1967-07-01

    A single air molecule can have a trajectory that can be described with a line, but most meteorologists use single lines to represent the trajectories of air parcels. A single line trajectory has the disadvantage that it is a categorical description of position. Like categorized forecasts it provides no qualification, and no provision for dispersion in case the parcel contains two or more molecules which may take vastly different paths. Diffusion technology has amply demonstrated that an initial aerosol cloud or volume of gas in the atmosphere not only grows larger, but sometimes divides into puffs, each having a different path or swath. Yet, the average meteorologist, faced with the problem of predicting the future motion of a cloud, usually falls back on the line trajectory approach with the explanation that he had no better tool for long range application. In his more rational moments, he may use some arbitrary device to spread his cloud with distance. One such technique has been to separate the trajectory into two or more trajectories, spaced about the endpoint of the original trajectory after a short period of travel, repeating this every so often like a chain reaction. This has the obvious disadvantage of involving a large amount of labor without much assurance of improved accuracy. Another approach is to draw a circle about the trajectory endpoint, to represent either diffusion or error. The problem then is to know what radius to give the circle and also whether to call it diffusion or error. Meteorologists at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) are asked frequently to provide advice which involves trajectory technology, such as prediction of an aerosol cloud path, reconstruction of the motion of a volume of air, indication of the dilution, and the possible trajectory prediction error over great distances. Therefore, we set out, nearly three years ago, to provide some statistical knowledge about the status of our trajectory technology. This report contains some of the

  10. Action Recognition Using Discriminative Structured Trajectory Groups

    KAUST Repository

    Atmosukarto, Indriyati

    2015-01-06

    In this paper, we develop a novel framework for action recognition in videos. The framework is based on automatically learning the discriminative trajectory groups that are relevant to an action. Different from previous approaches, our method does not require complex computation for graph matching or complex latent models to localize the parts. We model a video as a structured bag of trajectory groups with latent class variables. We model action recognition problem in a weakly supervised setting and learn discriminative trajectory groups by employing multiple instance learning (MIL) based Support Vector Machine (SVM) using pre-computed kernels. The kernels depend on the spatio-temporal relationship between the extracted trajectory groups and their associated features. We demonstrate both quantitatively and qualitatively that the classification performance of our proposed method is superior to baselines and several state-of-the-art approaches on three challenging standard benchmark datasets.

  11. Synthetic triphones from trajectory-based feature distributions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Badenhorst, J

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available we reconstruct models for unseen transitions. In the current study, we restrict ourselves to triphone modelling, and aim to generate synthetic triphones from seen diphones. If this is possible, the same approach should be applicable to larger contexts... are applied in a similar fashion. Using trajectory models for the same goal, builds on prior work analysing co-articulation trajectories [7], [8], [9] as well as various studies on trajectory modelling for ASR purposes [10], [11], [12], [13]. Particularly...

  12. Thinking Inside the Box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeheim, Charles T.

    2007-01-01

    In early 2007, SLAC was faced with a shortage of both electrical power and cooling in the main computer building, at the same time that the BaBar collaboration needed a new cluster of 250 batch machines installed. A number of different options were explored for the expansion. Provision of additional electrical power to the building was estimated to take one to two years, and cost several million dollars; additional cooling was even worse. Space in a Silicon Valley co-location facilities was reasonable on a one-year timescale, but broke even in costs by the end of three years, and were more expensive after that. There were also unresolved questions about the affects of additional latency from an offsite compute cluster to the onsite disk servers. The option of converting existing experimental hall space into computer space was estimated at one year, with uncertain availability. An option to aggressively replace several existing clusters with more power-efficient equipment was studied closely, but was disruptive to continued operations, expensive, and didn't provide any additional headroom. Finally, the installation of a Sun Project Blackbox (PBB) unit was selected as providing the capacity on a timescale of six months for a reasonable cost with minimal disruption to service. SLAC obtained and installed a beta unit and have been running it in production since September 2007. The experiences described are with the Early Access version of the PBB. The production version of the box has engineering changes based in part on our experiences

  13. Automated Cooperative Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Curt; Pahle, Joseph; Brown, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    This presentation is an overview of the Automated Cooperative Trajectories project. An introduction to the phenomena of wake vortices is given, along with a summary of past research into the possibility of extracting energy from the wake by flying close parallel trajectories. Challenges and barriers to adoption of civilian automatic wake surfing technology are identified. A hardware-in-the-loop simulation is described that will support future research. Finally, a roadmap for future research and technology transition is proposed.

  14. Reconciling White-Box and Black-Box Perspectives on Behavioral Self-adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect to an environ......This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect...... to an environment whenever the system is able to satisfy its goals irrespectively of the environment perturbations. Modeling and programming engineering activities often take a white-box perspective: A system is equipped with suitable adaptation mechanisms and its behavior is classified as adaptive depending...

  15. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

    2013-12-10

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

  16. Modeling Nonlinear Change via Latent Change and Latent Acceleration Frameworks: Examining Velocity and Acceleration of Growth Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin; Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamagami, Fumiaki; Mazzocco, Michele

    2013-01-01

    We propose the use of the latent change and latent acceleration frameworks for modeling nonlinear growth in structural equation models. Moving to these frameworks allows for the direct identification of "rates of change" and "acceleration" in latent growth curves--information available indirectly through traditional growth…

  17. Fuel element box inspection device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortmayer, R.M.; Pick, W.

    1985-01-01

    The invention concerns a device for inspecting the outer geometry of a long fuel element box by measuring the surface contours over its longitudinal crossection and along its length by sensors. These are kept in a sledge which can be moved along the fuel element guide in a slot guide. The measurement signals reach an evaluation device outside the longitudinal box. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Black holes in a box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witek, Helvi; Cardoso, Vitor; Nerozzi, Andrea; Gualtieri, Leonardo; Herdeiro, Carlos; Zilhao, Miguel; Sperhake, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of BHs in 'confining boxes' is interesting for a number of reasons, particularly because it mimics some aspects of anti-de Sitter spacetimes. These admit no Cauchy surface and are a simple example of a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime. We are here interested in the potential role that boundary conditions play in the evolution of a BH system. For that, we imprison a binary BH in a box, at which boundary we set mirror-like boundary conditions.

  19. The lithium vapor box divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldston, R J; Schwartz, J; Myers, R

    2016-01-01

    It has long been recognized that volumetric dissipation of the plasma heat flux from a fusion power system is preferable to its localized impingement on a material surface. Volumetric dissipation mitigates both the anticipated very high heat flux and intense particle-induced damage due to sputtering. Recent projections to a tokamak demonstration power plant suggest an immense upstream parallel heat flux, of order 20 GW m −2 , implying that fully detached operation may be a requirement for the success of fusion power. Building on pioneering work on the use of lithium by Nagayama et al and by Ono et al as well as earlier work on the gas box divertor by Watkins and Rebut, we present here a concept for a lithium vapor box divertor, in which lithium vapor extracts momentum and energy from a fusion-power-plant divertor plasma, using fully volumetric processes. At the high powers and pressures that are projected this requires a high density of lithium vapor, which must be isolated from the main plasma in order to avoid lithium build-up on the chamber walls or in the plasma. Isolation is achieved through a powerful multi-box differential pumping scheme available only for condensable vapors. The preliminary box-wise calculations are encouraging, but much more work is required to demonstrate the practical viability of this scheme, taking into account at least 2D plasma and vapor flows within and between the vapor boxes and out of the vapor boxes to the main plasma. (paper)

  20. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, C.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Kyle, P.; Nelson, G.C.; Fujimori, S.; Gurgel, A.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Popp, A.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.A.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Lampe, von M.; Wise, M.; Blanc, E.; Hasegawa, T.; Kavallari, A.; Valin, H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive