Sample records for traditional risk assessment
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Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...
Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments
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Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts – adaptation of traditional approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jahnel, J; Fleischer, T; Seitz, S B
2013-01-01
Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.
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Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.
Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew
2012-10-16
Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.
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Risks to Birds Traded for African Traditional Medicine: A Quantitative Assessment
Williams, Vivienne L.; Cunningham, Anthony B.; Kemp, Alan C.; Bruyns, Robin K.
2014-01-01
Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species), Falconiformes (45 species), and Coraciiformes (24 species), and the families Accipitridae (37 species), Ardeidae (15 species), and Bucerotidae (12 species). The Barn owl (Tyto alba) was the most widely sold species (seven countries). The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to “morphospecies”, and using Sørensen's index), which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%), but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa) were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's “7 forms of rarity” model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size) indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action. PMID:25162700
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Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vivienne L Williams
Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.
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LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Kellett, John
2012-01-01
The outcome of the traditional diagnostic history and physical depends entirely on the availability, ability and diligence of an individual doctor. An alternative is a team-based approach that performs the following tasks: a focused assessment, monitoring of the response to initial treatment, and then determining what further management is appropriate (calling for urgent help if it is required). This concept is based on risk prediction rather than diagnosis, and is captured by the mnemonic FAITH3 (Focused Assessment, Initial Treatment, hAssessing response, calling for Help and Handing over care).
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Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kluegel, Jens-Uwe
2012-01-01
The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diederichsen, Louise C. Pyndt Raun; Diederichsen, Axel C P; Simonsen, Jane A
2015-01-01
: Traditional CV risk factors were assessed in a cross-sectional, observational study of 76 patients with PM/DM and in 48 sex- and age-matched healthy controls. CAC was quantified by means of cardiac computed tomography scan and expressed in Agatston units. The associations between CV risk factors, PM......OBJECTIVE: To determine the occurrence of traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC) in adults with polymyositis (PM) or dermatomyositis (DM) compared to healthy controls and to assess the association between CV risk factors, PM/DM, and CAC score. METHODS...... of triglycerides (P = 0.0009). High CAC score occurred more frequently in patients (20% versus 4%; P = 0.04). In multivariate analysis of patient factors associated with CAC were age (P = 0.02) and smoking (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: In this study, traditional CV risk factors and severe CAC were commonly found...
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Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.
2015-12-01
Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation
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Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elaine Amaral de Paula
Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.
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Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wendland, W.G.
1992-01-01
This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance
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Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma
2014-11-01
As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Herrera
2013-07-01
Full Text Available In order to achieve the CO2 reduction targets set by the Scottish government, it will be necessary to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings. Within the total Scottish building stock, historic and traditionally constructed buildings are an important proportion, in the order of 19 % (Curtis, 2010, and represent cultural, emotional and identity values that should be protected. However, retrofit interventions could be a complex operation because of the several aspects that are involved in the hygrothermal performance of traditional buildings. Moreover, all these factors interact with each other and therefore need to be analysed as a whole. Upgrading the envelope of traditional buildings may produce severe changes to the moisture migration leading to superficial or interstitial condensation and thus fabric decay and mould growth. Retrofit projects carried out in the past have failed because of the misunderstanding, or the lack of expert prediction, of the potential consequences associated to the envelope's alteration. The evaluation of potential risks, prior to any alteration on building's physics in order to improve its energy efficiency, is critical to avoid future damage on the wall's performance or occupants' health and well being. The aim of this PhD research project is to point out the most critical aspects related to the energy efficiency improvement of traditional buildings and to develop a risk based methodology that helps owners and practitioners during the decision making process.
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Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea
2001-01-01
the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....
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Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth
2017-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.
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Risk assessment and the environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fisk, D.J.
1992-01-01
This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change
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Risk assessment and the environment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)
1992-07-01
This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.
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Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens
Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.
2007-01-01
In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on
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Qekwana, Nenene Daniel; Oguttu, James Wabwire
2014-06-01
The South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries estimated in 2012 that there were 2.033 million goats in the country. Of these animals, less than 0.5% are slaughtered at registered abattoirs. Although informal and traditional slaughter of goats for home consumption is permitted under the South African Meat Safety Act 40 of 2000, the responsibility for ensuring that products are safe is left to the traditional or ritual slaughter practitioners. The objective of the present study was to assess whether preslaughter activities associated with traditional or ritual slaughter promote or reduce food-associated risks and to recommend mitigation strategies for potential food safety hazards. Structured interviews were conducted with 105 selected respondents (in and around Tshwane, South Africa) who had been involved in traditional goat slaughter. Approximately 70% of goats slaughtered were obtained from sources that could be traced to ascertain the origin of the goats. None of the respondents were aware of the need for a health declaration for slaughter stock. Some slaughter practitioners (21%) perform prepurchase inspection of stock to ascertain their health status. However, this percentage is very small, and the approach is based on indigenous knowledge systems. The majority of respondents (67.6%) travelled 1 to 11 km to obtain a goat for traditional slaughter. Although approximately 70% of slaughter goats were transported by vehicles, the vehicles used did not meet the legal standard. More than two-thirds of goats were tied to a tree while waiting to be slaughtered, and the rest were held in a kraal. The holding period ranged from 1 to 72 h, but more than 70% of the animals were slaughtered within 36 h. This study revealed that traditional and ritual slaughter involves some preslaughter activities with potential to mitigate the risk of slaughtering animals that are not fit for human consumption. Such activities include prepurchase inspection, obtaining
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Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L.
1998-01-01
The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)
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Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)
1998-07-01
The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)
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Association of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors with Venous Thromboembolism
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K; Cushman, Mary; Næss, Inger Anne
2017-01-01
Background: Much controversy surrounds the association of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods: We performed an individual level random-effect meta-analysis including 9 prospective studies with measured baseline cardiovascular disease risk...... factors and validated VTE events. Definitions were harmonized across studies. Traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were modeled categorically and continuously using restricted cubic splines. Estimates were obtained for overall VTE, provoked VTE (ie, VTE occurring in the presence of 1 or more...
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Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.
Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace
2015-01-01
Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.
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Bannink, Rienke; Broeren, Suzanne; van de Looij – Jansen, Petra M.; de Waart, Frouwkje G.; Raat, Hein
2014-01-01
Purpose To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. Methods A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181). Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. Results There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. Conclusions Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying behavior, especially
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Bannink, Rienke; Broeren, Suzanne; van de Looij-Jansen, Petra M; de Waart, Frouwkje G; Raat, Hein
2014-01-01
To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181). Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying behavior, especially because early-onset mental health problems
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rienke Bannink
Full Text Available PURPOSE: To examine whether traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with adolescent's mental health problems and suicidal ideation at two-year follow-up. Gender differences were explored to determine whether bullying affects boys and girls differently. METHODS: A two-year longitudinal study was conducted among first-year secondary school students (N = 3181. Traditional and cyber bullying victimization were assessed at baseline, whereas mental health status and suicidal ideation were assessed at baseline and follow-up by means of self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these variables while controlling for baseline problems. Additionally, we tested whether gender differences in mental health and suicidal ideation were present for the two types of bullying. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between gender and traditional bullying victimization and between gender and cyber bullying victimization on mental health problems. Among boys, traditional and cyber bullying victimization were not related to mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. Among girls, both traditional and cyber bullying victimization were associated with mental health problems after controlling for baseline mental health. No significant interaction between gender and traditional or cyber bullying victimization on suicidal ideation was found. Traditional bullying victimization was associated with suicidal ideation, whereas cyber bullying victimization was not associated with suicidal ideation after controlling for baseline suicidal ideation. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation, whereas traditional, as well as cyber bullying victimization is associated with an increased risk of mental health problems among girls. These findings stress the importance of programs aimed at reducing bullying
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Premature Coronary Heart Disease and Traditional Risk Factors-Can We Do Better?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roxana Sadeghi
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Background: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors are strong predictors of an increased likelihood for premature CHD. Considering the benefits of risk factors᾿ management, it is imperative to find and treat them before looking for more unknown and weak risk factors. Objectives: Limited information is available about the demographic and historical characteristics of the patients with premature Coronary Heart Disease (CHD in IR Iran. The main objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of the traditional risk factors in these patients. Also, the researchers hypothesized that there are insufficient risk assessment and preventive intervention methods for the asymptomatic adult population. Methods: This study was conducted on 125 patients with premature CHD (age<50 years who were admitted in two academic hospitals with acute coronary syndromes. The patients were accepted since they had a definite CHD on the basis of acute myocardial infarction (elevated cardiac enzymes or documented CAD in coronary angiography. Results: The mean age of the study population was 42.50±5.65 (26 to 49 years. Among the patients,92 (73.6% were male, 113 (90.4% were married, 58 (46.4% were smokers,19 (15.2% were opium users, 97 (77.6% had dyslipidemia, 44 (35.2% had hypertension, and 33 (26.4% had diabetes mellitus. In addition, family history was presented in 54 patients (43.2%. Conclusions: Premature Coronary Heart Disease is a public health problem. However, there is lack of effective and intensive treatments of well-defined traditional risk factors and prevention methods for the majority of the patients experiencing premature CHD. In sum, there is still plenty of room for improvement of risk management in IR Iran.
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Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.
1987-06-01
Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs
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Xing, Zhenhua; Pei, Junyu; Tang, Liang; Hu, Xinqun
2018-04-01
Well-developed coronary collateral circulation usually results in fewer infarct size, improved cardiac function, and fewer mortality. Traditional coronary risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, and smoking) have some effects on coronary collateral circulation. However, the association between these risk factors and coronary collateral circulation are controversial. Given the confusing evidences regarding traditional cardiovascular risk factors on coronary collateral circulation, we performed this meta-analysis protocol to investigate the relationship between traditional risk factors of coronary artery disease and coronary collateral circulation. MEDINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index will be searched to identify relevant studies. The primary outcomes of this meta-analysis are well-developed coronary collateral circulation. Meta-analysis was performed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of traditional coronary risk factors (diabetes, smoking, hypertriton). Pooled ORs were computed as the Mantel-Haenszel-weighted average of the ORs for all included studies. Sensitivity analysis, quality assessment, publication bias analysis, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach (GRADE) will be performed to ensure the reliability of our results. This study will provide a high-quality synthesis of current evidence of traditional risk factors on collateral circulation. This conclusion of our systematic review and meta-analysis will provide evidence to judge whether traditional risk factors affects coronary collateral circulation.Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval is not required because our systematic review and meta-analysis will be based on published data without interventions on patients. The findings of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.
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Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban–rural gradient
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong
2013-01-01
We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban–rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI RDS was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI RDS . These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban–rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Highlights: ► Spatial pattern of metal risk level associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) along urban–rural gradients varied. ► Risk level of metals changed significantly when grain size was considered. ► A new index integrating RDS characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed. ► Results from the new index were improved relative to those of traditional assessment methods. -- A new index integrating road-deposited sediment characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed to assess metal risk along the urban–rural gradient
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Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment
Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.
2017-01-01
Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,
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The role of traditional cardiovascular risk factors among patients with rheumatoid arthritis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brady, Sharmayne R E; de Courten, Barbora; Reid, Christopher M
2009-01-01
People with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with the general population. We investigated the relative contribution of traditional cardiovascular risk factors to this elevated risk.......People with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with the general population. We investigated the relative contribution of traditional cardiovascular risk factors to this elevated risk....
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Risk assessment and societal choices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Otway, H J
1975-02-15
Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)
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Risk assessment and societal choices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Otway, H.J.
1975-01-01
Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)
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Post-modern career assessment for traditionally disadvantaged ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Post-modern career assessment for traditionally disadvantaged South African learners: Moving away from the 'expert opinion' ... Perspectives in Education ... This article explores the perceptions of learners from a disadvantaged community regarding the limitations and advantages of traditional and post-modern career ...
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Aven, Terje
2014-01-01
Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.
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COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT -A THEORETICAL APPROACH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cican Simona-Iulia
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The complexity, volatility and unpredictability of the current economic environment are a daily reminder that organizations face many risks. The traditional approach, according to which risk is a necessary evil which must be removed, is no longer sufficient and that is why companies nowadays are forced to spend significant resources to manage risks. Risk transparency is what one looks for; therefore, identification and management of risks within an organization become increasingly necessary for success and longevity. Risk approach has a major role in a company’s ability to avoid, reduce and turn risks into opportunities. Enterprise risk management is a new concept that revolutionizes the traditional approach and summarizes risk management in an integrated, comprehensive and strategic system. Studies use several synonyms for enterprise risk management such as integrated risk management, holistic risk management, global risk management and strategic risk management. Enterprise risk management implements at the end of the last century a new way to deal with risks: the holistic approach. This risks approach – i.e. interaction of several types of risks which become increasingly threatening and varied and may cause more damage than individual risk – brings forward the need of risk management and raises issues at the highest level of company management. For a proper view on company risks, each individual risk and the possibility of risk interaction must be understood. This is essential to establish a risk classification according to their impact on the company. Traditional approach on risk management, as a management function, is limited to only threats and losses, so relatively few organizations see risks as potential earning-generated opportunities. However, risk management process is not radically changed. Enterprise risk management is an improved version of the traditional risk management, created by expanding its scope. The new risk
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Chiu, Wei-Ling; Boyle, Jacqueline; Vincent, Amanda; Teede, Helena; Moran, Lisa J
2017-01-01
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common and complex endocrinopathy with reproductive, metabolic, and psychological features and significantly increased cardiometabolic risks. PCOS is underpinned by inherent insulin resistance and hyperandrogenism. Obesity, more common in PCOS, plays an important role in the pathophysiology, exacerbating hyperinsulinaemia and hyperandrogenism, leading to recommended first-line lifestyle intervention. Significant traditional and non-traditional risk factors are implicated in PCOS in addition to obesity-exacerbated cardiometabolic risks and are explored in this review to promote the understanding of this common metabolic and reproductive condition. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Klisic Aleksandra
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Background: Since the cardiovascular (CV risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase.
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Research into specific risk assessment in project financing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivana Bestvina Bukvić
2013-12-01
Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.
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Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton
2013-03-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.
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Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment
Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno
2016-01-01
The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iain Brown
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.
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Some perspectives for environmental risk assessment of urban stormwater management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Baun, Anders; Ledin, Anna
2002-01-01
Introduction of new technologies for disposing stormwater locally, e.g. via infiltration into the ground, implies that the 'traditional' list of key-substances is not exhaustive and consequently, consultants and authorities have difficulties deciding whether to approve new technologies for stormw...... and groundwater, in an integral and transparent manner. This paper reviews some concepts used within risk assessment of chemical substances and seeks to plot a course for further developments related to risk assessments of stormwater contaminants....... for stormwater disposal. The risk for contamination of surface waters also needs to be assessed, even though this contamination is silently accepted by society. A proper risk assessment needs to consider contamination of all environmental compartments within the urban environment, i.e. surface water, soil...
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Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M
2015-01-01
Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Frazzoli, Chiara, E-mail: chiara.frazzoli@iss.it [External Relations Office, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome (Italy); Pouokam, Guy Bertrand, E-mail: getpouokam@gmail.com [Food Safety Laboratory, Biotechnology Center, University of Yaounde 1 (Cameroon); Mantovani, Alberto, E-mail: alberto.mantovani@iss.it [Dept. Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome (Italy); Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, E-mail: orishebere@gmail.com [University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State (Nigeria)
2016-10-01
The term geophagy is applied to the recurrent intentional eating of soil with multifactorial motivation. Geophagists are generally defined by gender (women), age (children), physical status (e.g. pregnancy, lactation, postpartum), social status (people exposed to significant nutritional deficiencies), and culture, but lost awareness of traditional medical meaning of this practice is changing these consumption patterns and increasing health risks. Moreover, although the holistic anthropological perspective recognizes soil consumption as mineral supplementation under certain circumstances, we should consider how the living environment has changed and is changing, along with diet, nutrition requirements, and habits. Therefore, benefits-to-risks ratio of cultural behaviours initiated centuries ago based on traditional medical practices requires deep revision and assessment. Knowledge on minerals metabolism, bioavailability and interactions is required to properly assess the role of geophagy in a balanced and safe intake of micronutrients. Most important, the risk of unbalanced intake of minerals may be serious since the mineralogy and chemistry of geophagic clays are uncontrolled, variable, and difficult to standardize. In addition, other factors (radioactive materials, organic chemicals and soil pathogens) complicate the risk assessment for population groups consuming soil. Since the geophagic practice is expected to persist despite economic development, the paper discusses the multifaceted spectrum of geophagy to highlight critical aspects for risk management. - Highlights: • Cultural behaviors initiated centuries ago need revision and assessment • Geophagy should consider how living environment, diet, and habits are changing • Update of nutritional requirements is crucial to assess geophagy • Chemicals, radioactive materials, and soil pathogens are risk factors of geophagy • Geochemical data could anticipate and prevent major food born/nutritional risks.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frazzoli, Chiara; Pouokam, Guy Bertrand; Mantovani, Alberto; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere
2016-01-01
The term geophagy is applied to the recurrent intentional eating of soil with multifactorial motivation. Geophagists are generally defined by gender (women), age (children), physical status (e.g. pregnancy, lactation, postpartum), social status (people exposed to significant nutritional deficiencies), and culture, but lost awareness of traditional medical meaning of this practice is changing these consumption patterns and increasing health risks. Moreover, although the holistic anthropological perspective recognizes soil consumption as mineral supplementation under certain circumstances, we should consider how the living environment has changed and is changing, along with diet, nutrition requirements, and habits. Therefore, benefits-to-risks ratio of cultural behaviours initiated centuries ago based on traditional medical practices requires deep revision and assessment. Knowledge on minerals metabolism, bioavailability and interactions is required to properly assess the role of geophagy in a balanced and safe intake of micronutrients. Most important, the risk of unbalanced intake of minerals may be serious since the mineralogy and chemistry of geophagic clays are uncontrolled, variable, and difficult to standardize. In addition, other factors (radioactive materials, organic chemicals and soil pathogens) complicate the risk assessment for population groups consuming soil. Since the geophagic practice is expected to persist despite economic development, the paper discusses the multifaceted spectrum of geophagy to highlight critical aspects for risk management. - Highlights: • Cultural behaviors initiated centuries ago need revision and assessment • Geophagy should consider how living environment, diet, and habits are changing • Update of nutritional requirements is crucial to assess geophagy • Chemicals, radioactive materials, and soil pathogens are risk factors of geophagy • Geochemical data could anticipate and prevent major food born/nutritional risks
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Zungu, N P; Simbayi, L C; Mabaso, M; Evans, M; Zuma, K; Ncitakalo, N; Sifunda, S
2016-04-26
In South Africa, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has recently been implemented as a strategy for reducing the risk of heterosexual HIV acquisition among men. However, there is some concern that VMMC may lead to low risk perception and more risky sexual behavior. This study investigated HIV risk perception and risk behaviors among men who have undergone either VMMC or traditional male circumcision (TMC) compared to those that had not been circumcised. Data collected from the 2012 South African national population-based household survey for males aged 15 years and older were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression, and relative risk ratios (RRRs) with 95 % confidence interval (CI) were used to assess factors associated with each type of circumcision relative no circumcision. Of the 11,086 males that indicated that they were circumcised or not, 19.5 % (95 % CI: 17.9-21.4) were medically circumcised, 27.2 % (95 % CI: 24.7-29.8) were traditionally circumcised and 53.3 % (95 % CI: 50.9-55.6) were not circumcised. In the final multivariate models, relative to uncircumcised males, males who reported VMMC were significantly more likely to have had more than two sexual partners (RRR = 1.67, p = 0.009), and males who reported TMC were significantly less likely to be low risk alcohol users (RRR = 0.72, p risk for HIV infection associated with multiple sexual partners and alcohol abuse following circumcision.
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'Ethical rationality': A subjective-objective concept of risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaiser, H.
1991-01-01
'Ethical rationality' as a concept of risk assessment means that risks are assessed using an integrative, ethical-normative approach (taking values, world views and people's understanding of what it means to be a human being and of what makes life worth living into account). Thus risks cannot be assessed on a mathematical and statistical basis alone. It is much more important to reflect upon what makes life worth living. In order to answer this question, the rationality of probability calculus does not suffice. Instead, this form of rationality must be transformed into or replaced by ethical discourse (an open, iterative and complex process of making ethical judgement). Proposals for an ethical assessment of risk are made which are substantiated by the theoretical concept of ethical rationality comprising the following steps: - Consideration of the nature of ethics (understanding of the viewer's perspective); - A look at an ethical interpretation of the traditional mathematical concept of risk (description); - Scheme for an ethical conception of rationality (theoretical reflections); - Weighing risks from an ethical perspective in practice. (orig./HSCH) [de
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Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje
2011-01-01
Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.
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Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological, and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bashkin, V.N.; Kozlov, M.Ya.; Evstafjeva, E.V.
1993-01-01
Risk assessment (RA) influenced by different factors in radionuclide polluted regions is carried out by determining the biogeochemical structure of a region. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological monitoring of human population health are the important approach to RA. These criteria should conjugate with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. Given fundamentals and approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, fertilizers, POPs etc) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability to a polluted environment have been carried out. These techniques include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological, and ecophysiological analyses of risk factors as well as quantitative analysis of uncertainties using expert-modeling systems. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods are used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. The results obtained in Chernobyl regions show the acceptability of these methods for risk assessment
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[Systematic economic assessment and quality evaluation for traditional Chinese medicines].
Sun, Xiao; Guo, Li-ping; Shang, Hong-cai; Ren, Ming; Lei, Xiang
2015-05-01
To learn about the economic studies on traditional Chinese medicines in domestic literatures, in order to analyze the current economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines and explore the existing problems. Efforts were made to search CNKI, VIP, Wanfang database and CBM by computer and include all literatures about economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines published on professional domestic journals in the systematic assessment and quality evaluation. Finally, 50 articles were included in the study, and the systematic assessment and quality evaluation were made for them in terms of titles, year, authors' identity, expense source, disease type, study perspective, study design type, study target, study target source, time limit, cost calculation, effect indicator, analytical technique and sensitivity analysis. The finally quality score was 0.74, which is very low. The results of the study showed insufficient studies on economics of traditional Chinese medicines, short study duration and simple evaluation methods, which will be solved through unremitting efforts in the future.
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Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.
1992-10-01
Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)
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Food safety challenges associated with traditional foods of Turkey
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arzu CAGRI-MEHMETOGLU
Full Text Available Abstract Consumer food safety concerns are continually increasing in Turkey, with consumer demand for safer foods becoming an important challenge for the industry. Most traditional foods in Turkey are produced under different requirements, and food safety risk management and risk assessment are conducted primarily by the government. Based on risk assessment, safety regulations and standards for traditional foods (e.g. Turkish white cheese, doner, helva have been established. In this paper, safety concerns surrounding the commercialization of traditional Turkish foods and related studies to identify and minimize potential hazards are discussed along with pathogen contamination in raw meat balls and aflatoxin in helva and white cheese. Based on this review, additional national risk analysis experts and related databases are urgently needed. In addition, the manufacturing processes for traditional foods need to be standardized and harmonized with international standards, such as CODEX.
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Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith
2001-01-01
Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision
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Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)
2001-07-01
Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in
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Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment
Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric
2016-01-01
Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.
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Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina
2014-12-01
Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.
2004-04-15
Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)
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Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
2014-01-01
context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical......, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand......Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction...
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Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects
Titarenko, Boris
2017-10-01
The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.
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A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Salling, Kim Bang
2013-01-01
This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...
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HIV risk perception and behavior among medically and traditionally circumcised males in South Africa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. P. Zungu
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In South Africa, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC has recently been implemented as a strategy for reducing the risk of heterosexual HIV acquisition among men. However, there is some concern that VMMC may lead to low risk perception and more risky sexual behavior. This study investigated HIV risk perception and risk behaviors among men who have undergone either VMMC or traditional male circumcision (TMC compared to those that had not been circumcised. Methods Data collected from the 2012 South African national population-based household survey for males aged 15 years and older were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression, and relative risk ratios (RRRs with 95 % confidence interval (CI were used to assess factors associated with each type of circumcision relative no circumcision. Results Of the 11,086 males that indicated that they were circumcised or not, 19.5 % (95 % CI: 17.9–21.4 were medically circumcised, 27.2 % (95 % CI: 24.7–29.8 were traditionally circumcised and 53.3 % (95 % CI: 50.9–55.6 were not circumcised. In the final multivariate models, relative to uncircumcised males, males who reported VMMC were significantly more likely to have had more than two sexual partners (RRR = 1.67, p = 0.009, and males who reported TMC were significantly less likely to be low risk alcohol users (RRR = 0.72, p < 0.001. Conclusion There is a need to strengthen and improve the quality of the counselling component of VMMC with the focus on education about the real and present risk for HIV infection associated with multiple sexual partners and alcohol abuse following circumcision.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ashbolt, Nicholas J.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas
2013-01-01
to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Methods: The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives...... of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Discussion: Various...... novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b...
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Vidović, Bojana; Stefanović, Aleksandra; Milovanović, Srđan; Ðorđević, Brižita; Kotur-Stevuljević, Jelena; Ivanišević, Jasmina; Miljković, Milica; Spasić, Slavica
2014-04-01
The purpose of this study was to assess oxidative stress status parameters and their possible associations with traditional cardiovascular risk factors in patients with schizophrenia, as well as their potential for patient-control discrimination. Fasting glucose, lipid profile and oxidative stress status parameters were assessed in 30 schizophrenic patients with atypical antipsychotic therapy and 60 control subjects. Malondialdehyde (MDA), pro-oxidant/antioxidant balance (PAB) and total anti-oxidant status (TAS) were significantly higher whereas total sulfhydryl (SH) groups were significantly lower in schizophrenic patients vs. control group. Higher serum PAB values showed an independent association with schizophrenia. The addition of PAB to conventional risk factors improved discrimination between healthy control subjects and patients. Increased oxidative stress and changed lipid profile parameters are associated in schizophrenic patients and may indicate risk for atherosclerosis. The serum PAB level may reflect the levels of oxidative stress in schizophrenia and improve discrimination of patients from controls.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kinchin, G.H.
1983-01-01
After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)
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Nguyen, Brandon T; Kim, Ryan S; Bretana, Maria E; Kegley, Eric; Schefler, Amy C
2018-02-01
To evaluate the association between traditional clinical high-risk features of uveal melanoma patients and gene expression profile (GEP). This was a retrospective, single-center, case series of patients with uveal melanoma. Eighty-three patients met inclusion criteria for the study. Patients were examined for the following clinical risk factors: drusen/retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) changes, vascularity on B-scan, internal reflectivity on A-scan, subretinal fluid (SRF), orange pigment, apical tumor height/thickness, and largest basal dimensions (LBD). A novel point system was created to grade the high-risk clinical features of each tumor. Further analyses were performed to assess the degree of association between GEP and each individual risk factor, total clinical risk score, vascularity, internal reflectivity, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage classification, apical tumor height/thickness, and LBD. Of the 83 total patients, 41 were classified as GEP class 1A, 17 as class 1B, and 25 as class 2. The presence of orange pigment, SRF, low internal reflectivity and vascularity on ultrasound, and apical tumor height/thickness ≥ 2 mm were not statistically significantly associated with GEP class. Lack of drusen/RPE changes demonstrated a trend toward statistical association with GEP class 2 compared to class 1A/1B. LBD and advancing AJCC stage was statistically associated with higher GEP class. In this cohort, AJCC stage classification and LBD were the only clinical features statistically associated with GEP class. Clinicians should use caution when inferring the growth potential of melanocytic lesions solely from traditional funduscopic and ultrasonographic risk factors without GEP data.
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Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.
2011-01-01
Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.
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Introduction to risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raina, V.M.
2002-01-01
This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bordeleau, Serge, E-mail: Serge.Bordeleau@uqat.ca [Chaire de Recherche du Canada en Foresterie Autochtone, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boul. de l' Université, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec J9X 5E4 (Canada); Chaire Industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQÀM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boul. de l' Université, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec J9X 5E4 (Canada); Asselin, Hugo, E-mail: Hugo.Asselin@uqat.ca [Chaire de Recherche du Canada en Foresterie Autochtone, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boul. de l' Université, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec J9X 5E4 (Canada); Chaire Industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQÀM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boul. de l' Université, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec J9X 5E4 (Canada); and others
2016-09-15
Food insecurity is a growing concern for indigenous communities worldwide. While the risk of heavy metal contamination associated to wild food consumption has been extensively studied in the Arctic, data are scarce for the Boreal zone. This study addressed the concerns over possible heavy metal exposure through consumption of traditional food in four Anishnaabeg communities living in the Eastern North American boreal forest. Liver and meat samples were obtained from 196 snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) trapped during winter 2012 across the traditional lands of the participating communities and within 56–156 km of a copper smelter. Interviews were conducted with 78 household heads to assess traditional food habits, focusing on snowshoe hare consumption. Concentrations in most meat and liver samples were below the detection limit for As, Co, Cr, Ni and Pb. Very few meat samples had detectable Cd and Hg concentrations, but liver samples had mean dry weight concentrations of 3.79 mg/kg and 0.15 mg/kg respectively. Distance and orientation from the smelter did not explain the variability between samples, but percent deciduous and mixed forest cover had a marginal negative effect on liver Cd, Cu and Zn concentrations. The estimated exposition risk from snowshoe hare consumption was low, although heavy consumers could slightly exceed recommended Hg doses. In accordance with the holistic perspective commonly adopted by indigenous people, the nutritional and sociocultural importance of traditional food must be considered in risk assessment. Traditional food plays a significant role in reducing and preventing serious health issues disproportionately affecting First Nations, such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. Traditional consumption of snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) entails low risk of heavy metal exposure if animals are tapped > 50 km from a point emission source (such as a copper smelter in the present study), if risk-increasing behaviours are
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bordeleau, Serge; Asselin, Hugo
2016-01-01
Food insecurity is a growing concern for indigenous communities worldwide. While the risk of heavy metal contamination associated to wild food consumption has been extensively studied in the Arctic, data are scarce for the Boreal zone. This study addressed the concerns over possible heavy metal exposure through consumption of traditional food in four Anishnaabeg communities living in the Eastern North American boreal forest. Liver and meat samples were obtained from 196 snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) trapped during winter 2012 across the traditional lands of the participating communities and within 56–156 km of a copper smelter. Interviews were conducted with 78 household heads to assess traditional food habits, focusing on snowshoe hare consumption. Concentrations in most meat and liver samples were below the detection limit for As, Co, Cr, Ni and Pb. Very few meat samples had detectable Cd and Hg concentrations, but liver samples had mean dry weight concentrations of 3.79 mg/kg and 0.15 mg/kg respectively. Distance and orientation from the smelter did not explain the variability between samples, but percent deciduous and mixed forest cover had a marginal negative effect on liver Cd, Cu and Zn concentrations. The estimated exposition risk from snowshoe hare consumption was low, although heavy consumers could slightly exceed recommended Hg doses. In accordance with the holistic perspective commonly adopted by indigenous people, the nutritional and sociocultural importance of traditional food must be considered in risk assessment. Traditional food plays a significant role in reducing and preventing serious health issues disproportionately affecting First Nations, such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. Traditional consumption of snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) entails low risk of heavy metal exposure if animals are tapped > 50 km from a point emission source (such as a copper smelter in the present study), if risk-increasing behaviours are
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Darioli Roger
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Objective Few studies have assessed secular changes in the levels of cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RF in populations of low or middle income countries. The systematic collection of a broad set of both traditional and metabolic CV-RF in 1989 and 2004 in the population of the Seychelles islands provides a unique opportunity to examine trends at a fairly early stage of the "diabesity" era in a country in the African region. Methods Two examination surveys were conducted in independent random samples of the population aged 25–64 years in 1989 and 2004, attended by respectively 1081 and 1255 participants (participation rates >80%. All results are age-standardized to the WHO standard population. Results In 2004 vs. 1989, the levels of the main traditional CV-RF have either decreased, e.g. smoking (17% vs. 30%, p Conclusion The levels of several traditional CVD-RF improved over time, while marked detrimental trends were observed for obesity, diabetes and several cardiometabolic factors. Thus, in this population, the rapid health transition was characterized by substantial changes in the patterns of CVD-RF. More generally, this analysis suggests the importance of surveillance systems to identify risk factor trends and the need for preventive strategies to promote healthy lifestyles and nutrition.
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Dressel, Anne; Schneider, Robert; DeNomie, Melissa; Kusch, Jennifer; Welch, Whitney; Sosa, Mirtha; Yeldell, Sally; Maida, Tatiana; Wineberg, Jessica; Holt, Keith; Bernstein, Rebecca
2017-09-01
Most low-income Americans fail to meet physical activity recommendations. Inactivity and poor diet contribute to obesity, a risk factor for multiple chronic diseases. Health promotion activities have the potential to improve health outcomes for low-income populations. Measuring the effectiveness of these activities, however, can be challenging in community settings. A "Biking for Health" study tested the impact of a bicycling intervention on overweight or obese low-income Latino and African American adults to reduce barriers to cycling and increase physical activity and fitness. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in summer 2015. A 12-week bicycling intervention was implemented at two sites with low-income, overweight, or obese Latino and African American adults. We found that randomized controlled trial methodology was suboptimal for use in this small pilot study and that it negatively affected participation. More discussion is needed about the effectiveness of using traditional research methods in community settings to assess the effectiveness of health promotion interventions. Modifications or alternative methods may yield better results. The aim of this article is to discuss the effectiveness and feasibility of using traditional research methods to assess health promotion interventions in community-based settings.
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Information Uncertainty to Compare Qualitative Reasoning Security Risk Assessment Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2009-01-01
The security risk associated with malevolent acts such as those of terrorism are often void of the historical data required for a traditional PRA. Most information available to conduct security risk assessments for these malevolent acts is obtained from subject matter experts as subjective judgements. Qualitative reasoning approaches such as approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning are useful for modeling the predicted risk from information provided by subject matter experts. Absent from these approaches is a consistent means to compare the security risk assessment results. Associated with each predicted risk reasoning result is a quantifiable amount of information uncertainty which can be measured and used to compare the results. This paper explores using entropy measures to quantify the information uncertainty associated with conflict and non-specificity in the predicted reasoning results. The measured quantities of conflict and non-specificity can ultimately be used to compare qualitative reasoning results which are important in triage studies and ultimately resource allocation. Straight forward extensions of previous entropy measures are presented here to quantify the non-specificity and conflict associated with security risk assessment results obtained from qualitative reasoning models.
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Amézquita, Alejandro; Backhaus, Thomas; Borriello, Peter; Brandt, Kristian K.; Collignon, Peter; Coors, Anja; Finley, Rita; Gaze, William H.; Heberer, Thomas; Lawrence, John R.; Larsson, D.G. Joakim; McEwen, Scott A.; Ryan, James J.; Schönfeld, Jens; Silley, Peter; Snape, Jason R.; Van den Eede, Christel; Topp, Edward
2013-01-01
Background: Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these risks. Objective: We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Methods: The authors participated in a workshop held 4–8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development “hot spots,” exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options. Discussion: Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental “hot spot” compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose–response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways. Conclusions: We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers. Citation: Ashbolt NJ, Amézquita A, Backhaus T, Borriello P, Brandt KK, Collignon P, Coors A, Finley R, Gaze WH, Heberer T, Lawrence JR, Larsson DG, McEwen SA, Ryan JJ, Schönfeld J, Silley P, Snape JR
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A Fuzzy-FMEA Risk Assessment Approach for Offshore Wind Turbines
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Shafiee
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for risk and reliability analysis. However, several limitations are associated with its implementation in offshore windfarms: (i the failure data gathered from SCADA system is often missing or unreliable, and hence, the assessment information of the three risk factors (i.e., severity, occurrence, and fault detection are mainly based onexperts’ knowledge; (ii it is rather difficult for experts to precisely evaluate the risk factors; (iii the relative importance among the risk factors is not taken into consideration, and hence, the results may not necessarily represent the true risk priorities; and etc. To overcome these drawbacks and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, we develop a fuzzy-FMEA approach for risk and failure mode analysis in offshore wind turbine systems. The information obtained from the experts is expressed using fuzzy linguistics terms, and a grey theory analysis is proposed to incorporate the relative importance of the riskfactors into the determination of risk priority of failure modes. The proposed approach is applied to an offshore wind turbine system with sixteen mechanical, electrical and auxiliary assemblies, and the results are compared with the traditional FMEA.
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McKim, Vicky L
2017-06-01
In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.
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New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment
Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick
2004-01-01
Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate
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The Costs and Risks of Maturing Technologies, Traditionally vs. Evolutionary Approaches
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Pennock, Michael J; Rouse, William B
2008-01-01
.... This results in more frequent, smaller increments of deployed capability. In theory, evolutionary acquisition could be more cost effective than traditional acquisition approaches because it avoids most of the risk inherent...
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Using technology to assess and intervene with illicit drug-using persons at risk for HIV.
Horvath, Keith J; Lammert, Sara; LeGrand, Sara; Muessig, Kathryn E; Bauermeister, José A
2017-09-01
This review describes recent literature on novel ways technology is used for assessment of illicit drug use and HIV risk behaviours, suggestions for optimizing intervention acceptability, and recently completed and ongoing technology-based interventions for drug-using persons at risk for HIV and others with high rates of drug use and HIV risk behaviour. Among studies (n = 5) comparing technology-based to traditional assessment methods, those using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) had high rates of reported drug use and high concordance with traditional assessment methods. The two recent studies assessing the acceptability of mHealth approaches overall demonstrate high interest in these approaches. Current or in-progress technology-based interventions (n = 8) are delivered using mobile apps (n = 5), text messaging (n = 2) and computers (n = 1). Most intervention studies are in progress or do not report intervention outcomes; the results from one efficacy trial showed significantly higher HIV testing rates among persons in need of drug treatment. Studies are needed to continually assess technology adoption and intervention preferences among drug-using populations to ensure that interventions are appropriately matched to users. Large-scale technology-based intervention trials to assess the efficacy of these approaches, as well as the impact of individual intervention components, on drug use and other high-risk behaviours are recommended.
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Assessment of effectiveness of traditional herbal medicine in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Objective: To assess efficacy of a South African traditional herbal medicine in ... Participants: Seven men and 26 women aged between 22 and 43 years took part ... (70%) and urogenital lesions (100%), resumption of workplace duties (60%), ...
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An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thomas, Barry [Schering Agrochemicals Ltd., Chesterford Park Research Station, Saffron Walder, Essex (United Kingdom)
1992-07-01
The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies.
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An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, Barry
1992-01-01
The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies
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Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xue Jinling; Lu Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Hu Hongying; Yu Ruozhen; Liu Zhengtao; Meng Wei
2012-01-01
The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF L , which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment. (letter)
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The conceptual framework for physical risk assessment in multi-purpose workplaces
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lasota Andrzej Marek
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In industry work related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSDs are still a common problem which frequent cause of health problems, sick leave and it can result in decreased productivity, quality of work and increased absenteeism. Though, traditional manufacturing work practices do not enough take into account task variability issues during the work design – assessment process. Variations in task content and organizational work performance are due to effective use of equipments and reaching high level of productivity. But this variation has impact on work demand and risk to WRMSDs and makes some difficulties with assessment of risk. Therefore, this study aims develop a framework for assessment multi-purpose workplaces. The proposed method integrates complementary concepts of widely known techniques used for evaluation of physical risk factors to WRMSDs on workplaces. Additionally the research framework is highlighting major differences in worker’s exposure to WRMSDs risk, potential impact on awkward postures, and how these findings can be used for finding solutions in a future ergonomic intervention.
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Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bashkin, V.; Evstafjeva, E.
1995-01-01
A quantitative risk assessment (RA) for complex influence of different factors in heavy polluted regions is possible to carry out only on a basis of determination of various links of biogeochemical trophical chains and analysis of the whole biogeochemical structure of the region under study. As an integrative assessment, the human adaptability should be chosen because the majority of trophical chains are closed by man. The given integrative criteria includes biogeochemical, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological assessment of risk factors. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological monitoring of human population health are the important approaches to RA. These criteria should be conjugated with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. At the ultimate degree, the given approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, POPS, pesticides, fertilizers) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. Due to the complex influence of pollutants, it is impossible to use individual guidelines. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability assessment to a polluted environment have to be carried out. These methods include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological analysis of risk factors as well as quantitative uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods such as correlative graphs etc., have to be used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to complex influence of pollutants. The results obtained in the Chernobyl region have shown the acceptability of suggested methods
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... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...
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Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K
2012-01-01
The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Ravi Rajan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.
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Sparrow, Penny A. C.
GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.
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Contextualized personality: traditional and new assessment procedures.
Heller, Daniel; Watson, David; Komar, Jennifer; Min, Ji-A; Perunovic, Wei Qi Elaine
2007-12-01
We describe our ongoing program of research related to the assessment of contextualized personality, focusing on social roles and cultural cues as contextual factors. First, we present our research employing the traditional assessment approach, wherein participants are asked to rate explicitly their personality across several different roles. We argue that this hypothetical approach is potentially susceptible to the influence of stereotypes, social desirability, and demand characteristics. We therefore describe the development of three novel and subtle assessment procedures that are based on obtaining online self-representations that are activated while occupying a specific context. Finally, the strengths and limitations of all four approaches, as well as directions for future research in the study of contextualized personality, are discussed.
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Neural Correlates of Traditional Chinese Medicine Induced Advantageous Risk-Taking Decision Making
Lee, Tiffany M. Y.; Guo, Li-guo; Shi, Hong-zhi; Li, Yong-zhi; Luo, Yue-jia; Sung, Connie Y. Y.; Chan, Chetwyn C. H.; Lee, Tatia M. C.
2009-01-01
This fMRI study examined the neural correlates of the observed improvement in advantageous risk-taking behavior, as measured by the number of adjusted pumps in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), following a 60-day course of a Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) recipe, specifically designed to regulate impulsiveness in order to modulate…
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Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.
2007-01-01
This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development
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Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no
2007-11-15
This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.
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A risk assessment model based on fuzzy logic for electricity distribution system asset management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alireza Yazdani
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Electricity distribution systems are considered as the most critical sectors in countries because of the essentiality of power supplement security, socioeconomic security, and way of life. According to the central role of electricity distribution systems, risk analysis helps decision maker determine the most serious risk items to allocate the optimal amount of resources and time. Probability-impact (PI matrix is one of the most popular methods for assessment of the risks involved in the system. However, the traditional PI matrix is criticized for its inability to take into account the inherent uncertainty imposed by real-world systems. On the other hand, fuzzy sets are capable of handling the uncertainty. Thus, in this paper, fuzzy risk assessment model is developed in order to assess risk and management for electricity distribution system asset protection. Finally, a comparison analysis is conducted to show the effectiveness and the capability of the new risk assessment model.
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Vinnem, Jan-Erik
2014-01-01
Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions. This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology, subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems. Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...
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Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.
Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa
2018-05-01
School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.
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Environmental risk assessment as the basis for mine closure at Iscor Mining
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swart, S.J.; Pulles, W.; Boer, R.H.; Kirkaldy, J.; Pettit, C. [Iscor Mining, Pretoria (South Africa). Environmental Management Services
1998-01-01
This paper discusses the principles and application of risk assessment and management as the basis for environmental management within the mining industry. Unlike in other industries, mines are required to obtain closure certificates in terms of section 12 for the South African Minerals Act, which should ultimately release them from further environmental responsibilities. The focus shifts from conventional minimum legal compliance management to management of real environmental risks. The risk assessment approach has been applied to the planning of mine closure at Iscor`s Durban Navigation Collieries (Durnacol) in Kwa-Zulu Natal and certain key risk issues such as the long-term risk of water pollution from coal discard dumps have already progressed to fully quantitative risk assessment. This paper discussed the process which has been followed to date, with particular emphasis on the most recent phase, namely quantitative risk assessment and management of pollution from coal discard dumps. it is believed that the approach that is being pioneered at Durnacoal and which overcomes some of the more obvious deficineices of both the Environmental Risk Assessment Management (EMPR) and the traditional process will ultimately serve as the mode for all responsible mines in South Africa. It is also believed that this approach will enable the authorities to issue closure certificates with the confidence that there will be no unforeseen surprises in the years after closure. 9 figs., 1 tab.
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Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)
2013-09-15
The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.
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Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.
2013-01-01
The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment
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Albert, Michelle A; Glynn, Robert J; Buring, Julie; Ridker, Paul M
2006-12-12
Persons of lower socioeconomic status have greater cardiovascular risk than those of higher socioeconomic status. However, the mechanism through which socioeconomic status affects cardiovascular disease (CVD) is uncertain. Virtually no data are available that examine the prospective association between novel inflammatory and hemostatic CVD risk indicators, socioeconomic status, and incident CVD events. We assessed the relationship between 2 indicators of socioeconomic status (education and income), traditional and novel CVD risk factors (high sensitivity C-reactive protein, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, fibrinogen, and homocysteine), and incident CVD events among 22,688 apparently healthy female health professionals participating in the Women's Health Study. These women were followed up for 10 years for the development of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death. More educated women were less likely to be smokers; had a lower prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity; and were more likely to participate in vigorous physical activity than less educated women. At baseline, median total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, triglyceride, C-reactive protein, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, fibrinogen, and homocysteine levels for women in 5 categories of education (master's degree, and a doctoral degree) and 6 categories of income [ or = 100,000 dollars) decreased progressively with increasing education or income levels (all Prisk of incident CVD events decreased with increasing education (1.0, 0.7, 0.5, 0.4, and 0.5; P for trend risk factors on the relationship between education/income and CVD events, the relative hazard of incident CVD associated with a 1-category-higher level of education changed from 0.79 in age- and race-adjusted analysis to 0.89 in fully adjusted analysis. The 11% lower risk per 1 category of education remained significant (P for trend=0.006), suggesting that controlling
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Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, P.B.
1980-01-01
The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds
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Venema, A.
2015-01-01
The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Conrad, J.
1978-03-01
In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de
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Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.
2012-01-01
Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.
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Luu, Bich Ngoc; Nguyen, Thi Thieng; Newman, Ian M
2014-07-18
Gaps exist in knowledge about the production and use of traditional alcohols, particularly in Asia. This study adds new information about the nature, production and sale of traditional distilled spirit alcohol in Vietnam. This was an ethnographic study of traditional distilled spirit alcohol production in rural areas of three provinces in Vietnam. Researchers interviewed more than 300 individuals and recorded responses to general open-ended questions about local alcohol production. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and studied to discern what information about traditional alcohol was important to the speakers. Methods of production followed long-held traditions. Participants listed both personal and community benefits (economic, health, and social) from traditional alcohol making. Older people favoured traditional alcohol, while younger people favoured brand-name beer. Typically people consumed 2-4 drinks daily, mainly at meal times. People consumed more alcohol at special events and festivals. Distribution patterns ranged from low-risk distribution to family and neighbours to high-risk distribution by an agent who might combine alcohol from several producers, which increases the opportunity for dilution and adulteration. The most commonly listed health risks associated with locally-made alcohol were local air pollution and water pollution; participants also mentioned traffic crashes and bad public behaviour. Depending on the location, community leaders reported that production may be relatively stable or it may be declining. Traditional alcohol manufacture, sale, and use in Vietnam is a long-standing practice and low- to moderate-risk to health. There do not appear to be instances of accidental or intentional contamination. Urbanization seems to be affecting the market share of traditional alcohol as urbanized youth turn to branded products, mainly beer, making traditional alcohol making and consumption an activity mainly linked to older people in rural areas
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Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)
2010-10-01
Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.
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Bower, Julie M.; Carroll, Annemaree; Ashman, Adrian
2014-01-01
Traditional resources for ascertaining risk and protection for disengaged youth are often unsuitable, due to the stamina and skill required to complete them. Many of these tools assess risk without considering participants' potential for personal growth. The present study outlines the development and initial validation of a tool titled the…
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Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system
Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim
2014-05-01
The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.
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Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.
1999-01-01
The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs
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Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity
Mondal, A.
2015-12-01
In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.
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2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...
EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:
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Use of ecological exposure units in ecological risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferenbaugh, R.; Myers, O.; Gallegos, A.; Breshears, D.; Ebinger, M.
1995-01-01
The traditional approach to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites that are being evaluated for cleanup under CERCLA or RCRA requirements is to focus on the immediate impacts at or adjacent to a site. While this may be acceptable in some situations, it is not ecologically defensible in situations where there are numerous contaminated sites in proximity to each other. In the latter case, transport from the sites, potential cumulative effects, and wide-ranging receptors must be considered. The concept of the Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU) has been proposed to address this situation. Ecological Exposure Units are defined on the basis of ecological considerations and each EEU may contain several to many contaminated sites. The initial steps involved in performing ecological risk assessments using the EEU approach include (1) selection of appropriate receptors and assessment endpoints, and (2) geographical definition of EEUs. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, receptors have been identified and EEUs have been defined for these receptors. GIS is being used as a tool to map EEUs. Receptors include representatives from threatened or endangered species, species reflecting status of ecological health, species with social or cultural relevance, and other species of concern. After definition of EEUs, cumulative impacts of all stressors at all sites within each EEU must be evaluated. The two major advantages to performing ecological risk assessments using this approach are that risk assessments are performed in a more scientifically defensible manner because they are performed on ecologically defined units and that resources are used optimally by minimizing redundant remedial activities
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How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.
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Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley
2006-01-01
Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of
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Ecological risk assessments of endangered species are often hampered by a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of endangered species to chemicals of concern. However, traditional in vivo toxicity testing of endangered species is often not possible for practical and ethical rea...
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Rivera, Juan J; Nasir, Khurram; Cox, Pedro R; Choi, Eue-Keun; Yoon, Yeonyee; Cho, Iksung; Chun, Eun-Ju; Choi, Sang-Il; Blumenthal, Roger S; Chang, Hyuk-Jae
2009-10-01
Although prior studies have shown that traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors are associated with the burden of coronary atherosclerosis, less is known about the relationship of risk factors with coronary plaque sub-types. Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) allows an assessment of both, total disease burden and plaque characteristics. In this study, we investigate the relationship between traditional CV risk factors and the presence and extent of coronary plaque sub-types in a large group of asymptomatic individuals. The study population consisted of 1015 asymptomatic Korean subjects (53+/-10 years; 64% were males) free of known CV disease who underwent 64-slice CCTA as part of a health screening evaluation. We analyzed plaque characteristics on a per-segment basis according to the modified American Heart Association classification. Plaques in which calcified tissue occupied more than 50% of the plaque area were classified as calcified (CAP), NCAP). A total of 215 (21%) subjects had coronary plaque while 800 (79%) had no identifiable disease. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that increased age (per decade) and gender are the strongest predictors for the presence of any coronary plaque or the presence of at least one segment of CAP and MCAP (any plaque-age: OR 2.89; 95% CI 2.34, 3.56; male gender: OR 5.21; 95% CI 3.20, 8.49; CAP-age: OR 2.75; 95% CI 2.12, 3.58; male gender: 4.78; 95% CI 2.48, 9.23; MCAP-age: OR 2.62; 95% CI 2.02, 3.39; male gender: OR 4.15; 95% CI 2.17, 7.94). The strongest predictors for the presence of any NCAP were gender (OR 3.56; 95% CI 1.96-6.55) and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.87; 95% CI 1.63-5.08). When looking at the multivariate association between the presence of >/=2 coronary segments with a plaque sub-type and CV risk factors, male gender was the strongest predictor for CAP (OR 7.31; 95% CI 2.12, 25.20) and MCAP (OR 5.54; 95% CI 1.84, 16.68). Alternatively, smoking was the strongest predictor for the presence
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Inoshi Atukorala
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This study was performed to evaluate the prevalence of thickened carotid intima media thickness (CIMT in a Sri Lankan cohort of lupus nephritis (LN patients and to identify associations between traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD and LN-related risk factors with increased CIMT. Consecutive patients with biopsy-proven LN were evaluated for conventional CVD risk factors, renal parameters and extent of organ involvement in this cross-sectional study. Current disease activity and damage were assessed by the British Isles Lupus Activity Group (BILAG score and the Systemic Lupus International Collaborative Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR damage index, respectively. CIMT was assessed by B Mode grey scale ultrasonography. Increased CIMT was defined as CIMT more than the 75th percentile based on cutoffs from the "Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study." Forty patients (98% female, with a mean age of 38 years (age range of 20-50 and of South Asian descent, were evaluated. The mean duration of disease of 6.15 years (SD = 4.66. The overall prevalence of cardiovascular events was low and included previous acute coronary syndromes in 7.5%, stable angina in 5%, cerebrovascular accidents in 7.5% and transient ischemic attacks in 2.5% of the patients; 72.5% had hypertension (HTN [mean blood pressure (BP 140/80 mm Hg]; 32.5% had dyslipidemias (mean serum cholesterol 5.9; SD = 5.6 and 25% had diabetes (mean blood sugar 103.7; SD = 15.6. Forty percent were obese and 20% were overweight (Asian cutoffs. Increased CIMT (57.5% and atherosclerotic plaques (15.36% indicated a high CVD risk in this cohort. Diabetes (P = 0.016, HTN (P = 0.002, dyslipidemia (P = 0.002 and obesity (P = 0.048 were associated with thickened CIMT. The only LN-related risk factor associated with thickened CIMT (P <0.05 was the SLICC/ACR damage index. The independent predictors of thickened CIMT determined by logistic regression analysis were HTN and dyslipidemia.
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Wang, Yeuh-Bin; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Wang, Sheng-Wei
2015-03-01
This study characterized the sediment quality of the severely contaminated Erjen River in Taiwan by using multivariate analysis methods-including factor analysis (FA), self-organizing maps (SOMs), and positive matrix factorization (PMF)-and health risk assessment. The SOMs classified the dataset with similar heavy-metal-contaminated sediment into five groups. FA extracted three major factors-traditional electroplating and metal-surface processing factor, nontraditional heavy-metal-industry factor, and natural geological factor-which accounted for 80.8% of the variance. The SOMs and FA revealed the heavy-metal-contaminated-sediment hotspots in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary in the dry season. The hazardous index value for health risk via ingestion was 0.302. PMF further qualified the source apportionment, indicating that traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries comprised 47% of the health risk posed by heavy-metal-contaminated sediment. Contaminants discharged from traditional electroplating and metal-surface-processing industries in the middle and upper reaches of the major tributary must be eliminated first to improve the sediment quality in Erjen River. The proposed assessment framework for heavy-metal-contaminated sediment can be applied to contaminated-sediment river sites in other regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Structural, biochemical and non-traditional cardiovascular risk markers in PCOS.
Christakou, Charikleia; Diamanti-Kandarakis, Evanthia
2013-01-01
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a heterogeneous syndrome of reproductive and metabolic derangements. The combination of anovulation and hyperandrogenism signifies the classic form of PCOS which displays the adverse metabolic phenotype of the syndrome. This phenotype includes visceral obesity and insulin resistance as well as a constellation of other traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mainly low grade inflammation, disturbances of glucose metabolism and dyslipidemia. The resultant increased risk for cardiovascular disease may affect not only obese but also lean women with classic PCOS. The mechanisms underlying the increased cardiovascular risk in the context of PCOS may include not only metabolic aberrations, but also hormonal factors, in particular hyperandrogenemia. However, the consequences in terms of CV morbidity remain questionable due to the difficulties in conducting long-term, prospective studies aimed at identifying potential late-arriving clinical outcomes.
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2014-01-01
Background Gaps exist in knowledge about the production and use of traditional alcohols, particularly in Asia. This study adds new information about the nature, production and sale of traditional distilled spirit alcohol in Vietnam. Method This was an ethnographic study of traditional distilled spirit alcohol production in rural areas of three provinces in Vietnam. Researchers interviewed more than 300 individuals and recorded responses to general open-ended questions about local alcohol production. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and studied to discern what information about traditional alcohol was important to the speakers. Results Methods of production followed long-held traditions. Participants listed both personal and community benefits (economic, health, and social) from traditional alcohol making. Older people favoured traditional alcohol, while younger people favoured brand-name beer. Typically people consumed 2-4 drinks daily, mainly at meal times. People consumed more alcohol at special events and festivals. Distribution patterns ranged from low-risk distribution to family and neighbours to high-risk distribution by an agent who might combine alcohol from several producers, which increases the opportunity for dilution and adulteration. The most commonly listed health risks associated with locally-made alcohol were local air pollution and water pollution; participants also mentioned traffic crashes and bad public behaviour. Depending on the location, community leaders reported that production may be relatively stable or it may be declining. Conclusions Traditional alcohol manufacture, sale, and use in Vietnam is a long-standing practice and low- to moderate-risk to health. There do not appear to be instances of accidental or intentional contamination. Urbanization seems to be affecting the market share of traditional alcohol as urbanized youth turn to branded products, mainly beer, making traditional alcohol making and consumption an activity mainly
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Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.
1994-08-01
The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders
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This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...
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A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.
Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.
2016-12-01
Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morris, J.M.
1994-01-01
The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others
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The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel
2013-01-01
than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...
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Assessment of cardiovascular risk.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Cooney, Marie Therese
2010-10-01
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?
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Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials.
Genske, Anna; Engel-Glatter, Sabrina
2016-03-01
Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including 'risk' minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using 'risk assessment' as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as 'risk' and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue.
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Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment
Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen
2013-01-01
Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Namita P Mahalle
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: There is an increase in awareness about the role of nutritional factors in chronic non-communicable diseases. We therefore conducted this study with an aim to assess the relationship between nutritional factor (vitamin B12 and homocysteine [Hcy] and its association with insulin resistance and inflammatory markers, and differences in traditional and non-traditional risk factors among diabetics and non-diabetics in known cases of coronary artery disease (CAD. Materials and Methods: Three hundred consecutive patients with known coronary disease on coronary angiography, who were >25 years old were included in this study. All cases were interviewed using a questionnaire. Blood samples were analyzed for insulin, vitamin B12, Hcy and inflammatory markers (highly sensitive C-reactive protein [hsCRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6], Tumor necrosis factor-alfa [TNF-α]. Insulin resistance was calculated with homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR. Results: Mean age of the patients was 60.95 ± 12.3 years. Body mass index and waist hip ratio were comparable in both groups. Triglyceride, very low-density lipoprotein and HbA1C were significantly higher and high-density lipoprotein (HDL was significantly lower in patients with diabetes. Patients with diabetes had significantly high levels of IL-6, hsCRP and TNF-α compared with non-diabetic patients. Insulin resistance was twofold higher in diabetic patients. Serum vitamin B12 levels were significantly lower and Hcy was significantly higher in the diabetic group compared with the non-diabetic patients. HbA1C, HOMA-IR and Hcy levels were positively correlated with inflammatory markers in the total study population and in the non-diabetic patients; but, in diabetic patients, HbA1C and Hcy showed this relation. Conclusions: Vitamin B12 deficiency is common in the diabetic population. Hcy levels were higher in diabetics compared with non-diabetics, and were related to glycemic level and
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Shao, Kan; Allen, Bruce C; Wheeler, Matthew W
2017-10-01
Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify variability among different populations. This approach jointly characterizes the distribution of risk at background exposure and the sensitivity of response to exposure, which are commonly represented by model parameters. We demonstrate, through both an application to real data and a simulation study, that using the proposed hierarchical structure adequately characterizes variability across different populations. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.
Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R
2017-02-01
The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria
2012-01-01
Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...
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Information needs for risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.
1990-12-31
Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Houghton, W.J.
1980-06-01
A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is proposed to be used to scrutinize selection of accident sequences. A technique is described in this Licensing Topical Report to identify candidates for Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) utilizing the risk assessment results. As a part of this technique, it is proposed that events with frequencies below a specified limit would not be candidates. The use of the methodology described is supplementary to the traditional, deterministic approach and may result, in some cases, in the selection of multiple failure sequences as DBAs; it may also provide a basis for not considering some traditionally postulated events as being DBAs. A process is then described for selecting a list of DBAs based on the candidates from PRA as supplementary to knowledge and judgments from past licensing practice. These DBAs would be the events considered in Chapter 15 of Safety Analysis Reports of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors
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Between tradition and innovation : Developing Flood Risk Management Plans in the Netherlands
Jong, Pieter; Brink, Margo Van Den
2013-01-01
Traditionally, governmental authorities in the Netherlands have a strong focus on the construction and maintenance of flood defences, such as dikes and dams. The last decades, however, there has been a growing awareness of the importance of spatial planning for flood risk management. With the
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Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garrick, B.J.
1982-01-01
Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future
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Outlook for risk assessment and risk-informed regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chakraborty, S.; Breutel, C.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.
2000-01-01
The Western nuclear regulatory process has evolved from the initial engineering judgment' framework of the 1960's, the prescriptive deterministic requirements of the 1970s, the transition years of the 1980s, to the present day movement toward risk-informed approaches. In this paper, a short overview of the historic development of safety regulation is provided. The critique of traditional regulatory practice will be summarized and the features of risk-informed regulation will be discussed. The implementation of risk-informed regulation is considered on the basis of general legal principles common to many member states of the NEA and IAEA. In a process to risk-inform regulation, principles such as equal treatment, proportionality of rules and predictability of administrative action are found to be important. (author)
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Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav
2016-01-01
Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.
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Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2016-09-01
Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel N. Qekwana
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In African societies, traditional slaughter is linked to celebrations like weddings or births, as well as funerals and ancestor veneration. Participants in traditional slaughter of goats are at risk of exposure to hazards during slaughter, food preparation and consumption of goat meat. For risk mitigation strategies to be implemented, identification of the population at risk is required. This study is based on the premise that the demographic profile of people involved in traditional slaughter of goats is important for risk communication. Both structured and informal interviews were recorded and analysed using a thematic analysis. A total of 105 people were interviewed at taxi ranks in Tshwane, Gauteng. Of these, 48 were women and 57 men. The median age of women and men was 40.6 years and 44.3 years, respectively. The majority of respondents (61.9%, n = 65 interviewed were from the Gauteng Province. Sixty percent (n = 63 of respondents had a secondary education, whilst less than 4.81% (n = 5 of respondents had no formal education. This study demonstrated that interviewing commuters at taxi ranks gave access to a cross section of gender, age, language and origin. It was found that both genders were involved in traditional slaughter of goats. Risk communication strategies should thus target women as well as men. Communication strategies to mitigate the risks of traditional slaughter of goats should take into consideration the dynamic nature of demographic and cultural norms. In light of the wide demographic profile of the respondents, it was concluded that it should be possible to use taxi ranks for successful dissemination of food safety and occupational health risk mitigation messages.
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Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2014-09-01
Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).
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Methodology of environmental risk assessment management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saša T. Bakrač
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc
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Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus
2009-01-01
This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rimington, J.D.
1992-01-01
The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)
1992-07-01
The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.
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[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].
Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi
2014-03-01
With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.
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The influence of thresholds on the risk assessment of carcinogens in food.
Pratt, Iona; Barlow, Susan; Kleiner, Juliane; Larsen, John Christian
2009-08-01
The risks from exposure to chemical contaminants in food must be scientifically assessed, in order to safeguard the health of consumers. Risk assessment of chemical contaminants that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic presents particular difficulties, since the effects of such substances are normally regarded as being without a threshold. No safe level can therefore be defined, and this has implications for both risk management and risk communication. Risk management of these substances in food has traditionally involved application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle, however ALARA does not enable risk managers to assess the urgency and extent of the risk reduction measures needed. A more refined approach is needed, and several such approaches have been developed. Low-dose linear extrapolation from animal carcinogenicity studies or epidemiological studies to estimate risks for humans at low exposure levels has been applied by a number of regulatory bodies, while more recently the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach has been applied by both the European Food Safety Authority and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. A further approach is the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), which establishes exposure thresholds for chemicals present in food, dependent on structure. Recent experimental evidence that genotoxic responses may be thresholded has significant implications for the risk assessment of chemicals that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic. In relation to existing approaches such as linear extrapolation, MOE and TTC, the existence of a threshold reduces the uncertainties inherent in such methodology and improves confidence in the risk assessment. However, for the foreseeable future, regulatory decisions based on the concept of thresholds for genotoxic carcinogens are likely to be taken case-by-case, based on convincing data on the Mode of Action indicating that the rate limiting variable for the development of cancer
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Assessment of genetic diversity among accessions of two traditional ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Assessment of genetic diversity among accessions of two traditional leafy vegetables (Acmella uliginosa (L.) and Justicia tenella (Nees) T.) consumed in Benin using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. K Adéoti, A Rival, A Dansi, BS Ahohuendo, S Santoni, T Beule, A Nato, Y Henry, A Ahanchédé, ...
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Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard
2011-01-01
Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…
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[Forensic assessment of violence risk].
Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L
2014-03-01
Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko
2013-01-01
Successful strategies to handle the potential health and environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) often rely upon the well-established frameworks of life cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA). However, current research and specific guidance on how to actually apply these two...... scientific research efforts have taken into account some key lessons learned from past experiences with chemicals at the same time that many key challenges remain to applying these frameworks to ENM. In that setting, two main proposed approaches to use LCA and RA together for ENM are identified: i) LC......-based RA, similar to traditional RA applied in a life cycle perspective, and ii) RA-complemented LCA, similar to conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life cycle steps. This study finds that these two approaches for using LCA and RA together for ENM are similar to those made for chemicals...
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Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy
Edwards, Michelle
2010-01-01
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
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Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract ...
For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer sufficient. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS reports: “Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century”, “Exposure Science in the 21st Century”, and most recently, “Using 21st Century Science to Improve Risk-Related Evaluations.” The presentation highlights many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action concept into the chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing the exposome is presented, as is the systems-based AEP that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework
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[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].
Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long
2016-02-15
Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.
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Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...
For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as
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Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.
Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani
2018-03-01
Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.
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Habert, René; Livera, Gabriel; Rouiller-Fabre, Virginie
2014-01-01
Phthalates provide one of the most documented example evidencing how much we must be cautious when using the traditional paradigm based on extrapolation of experimental data from rodent studies for human health risk assessment of endocrine disruptors (EDs). Since foetal testis is known as one of the most sensitive targets of EDs, phthalate risk assessment is routinely based on the capacity of such compounds to decrease testosterone production by the testis or to impair masculinization in the rat during foetal life. In this paper, the well-established inhibiting effects of phthalates of the foetal Leydig cells function in the rat are briefly reviewed. Then, data obtained in humans and other species are carefully analysed. Already in January 2009, using the organotypic culture system named Fetal Testis Assay (FeTA) that we developed, we reported that phthalates might not affect testosterone production in human foetal testes. Several recent experimental studies using xenografts confirm the absence of detectable anti-androgenic effect of phthalates in the human foetal testes. Epidemiological studies led to contradictory results. Altogether, these findings suggest that phthalates effects on foetal Leydig cells are largely species-specific. Consequently, the phthalate threshold doses that disturb foetal steroidogenesis in rat testes and that are presently used to define the acceptable daily intake levels for human health protection must be questioned. This does not mean that phthalates are safe because these compounds have many deleterious effects upon germ cell development that may be common to the different studied species including human. More generally, the identification of common molecular, cellular or/and phenotypic targets in rat and human testes should precede the choice of the toxicological endpoint in rat to accurately assess the safety threshold of any ED in humans.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.
2016-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation
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Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment
Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.
2010-01-01
Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the
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Patient caries risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita
2009-01-01
Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...
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Ning, Jia; Cui, Xin Yue; Kong, Xiang Nan; Tang, Yi Fei; Wulandari, Riana; Chen, Lu; Wesseling, Sebas; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.
2018-01-01
In the present study, a risk assessment of plant food supplements (PFS), traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) and herbal teas containing alkenylbenzenes was performed using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach. The levels of alkenylbenzenes in botanical preparations collected on the Chinese market
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Building better environmental risk assessments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raymond eLayton
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.
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Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments
Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin
2015-01-01
Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217
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Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.
Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin
2015-01-01
Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.
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Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument
Schwalbe, Craig S.
2009-01-01
The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…
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Silaban, Sanny; Afif Siregar, A.; Hasan, H.; Aryfa Andra, C.
2018-03-01
The impact of Traditional risk factors on heart rate recovery (HRR) has not been studied in patients Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease (CAD). For this reason, we sought to determine the association between HRR as cardiac autonomic dysfunction marker and traditonal risk factors. The study was conducted with a cross-sectional study involving 89 patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus without known having coronary artery disease. The data was taken through anamnese and laboratory tests, and subjects who met the criteria were tested for a treadmill exercise to assess heart rate recovery in the first minute. In bivariate analysis Dyslipidemia, Hypertension, smoker, age, duration of DM≥ 5 years, HbA1C ≥7.5, Peak Heart rate, functional capacity and ST depression ischemic have an association with heart rate recovery. In multivariate analysis patients with hyper triglyceride, smoker, overweight, duration of diabetes ≥ five years and HbA1C ≥ 7,5 have lower heart rate recovery significantly. Traditional risk factors are determinant factors for heart rate recovery in patients with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease.
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Risk assessment of computer-controlled safety systems for fusion reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fryer, M.O.; Bruske, S.Z.
1983-01-01
The complexity of fusion reactor systems and the need to display, analyze, and react promptly to large amounts of information during reactor operation will require a number of safety systems in the fusion facilities to be computer controlled. Computer software, therefore, must be included in the reactor safety analyses. Unfortunately, the science of integrating computer software into safety analyses is in its infancy. Combined plant hardware and computer software systems are often treated by making simple assumptions about software performance. This method is not acceptable for assessing risks in the complex fusion systems, and a new technique for risk assessment of combined plant hardware and computer software systems has been developed. This technique is an extension of the traditional fault tree analysis and uses structured flow charts of the software in a manner analogous to wiring or piping diagrams of hardware. The software logic determines the form of much of the fault trees
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Diagnostic Accuracy of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in People With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy
Pohl, Patricia S.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Kluding, Patricia M.
2012-01-01
Background Diabetic peripheral neuropathy affects nearly half of individuals with diabetes and leads to increased fall risk. Evidence addressing fall risk assessment for these individuals is lacking. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify which of 4 functional mobility fall risk assessment tools best discriminates, in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, between recurrent “fallers” and those who are not recurrent fallers. Design A cross-sectional study was conducted. Setting The study was conducted in a medical research university setting. Participants The participants were a convenience sample of 36 individuals between 40 and 65 years of age with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Measurements Fall history was assessed retrospectively and was the criterion standard. Fall risk was assessed using the Functional Reach Test, the Timed “Up & Go” Test, the Berg Balance Scale, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each fall risk assessment tool. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to estimate modified cutoff scores for each fall risk assessment tool; indexes then were recalculated. Results Ten of the 36 participants were classified as recurrent fallers. When traditional cutoff scores were used, the Dynamic Gait Index and Functional Reach Test demonstrated the highest sensitivity at only 30%; the Dynamic Gait Index also demonstrated the highest overall diagnostic accuracy. When modified cutoff scores were used, all tools demonstrated improved sensitivity (80% or 90%). Overall diagnostic accuracy improved for all tests except the Functional Reach Test; the Timed “Up & Go” Test demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy at 88.9%. Limitations The small sample size and retrospective fall history assessment were limitations of the study. Conclusions Modified cutoff scores improved diagnostic accuracy for 3 of 4 fall risk
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RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Szabo Alina
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.
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Riley, Donna M; Newby, C Alison; Leal-Almeraz, Tomás O
2006-10-01
The potential risk from cultural and religious practices involving mercury in Latino and Caribbean communities raises central methodological and ethical questions for risk assessment and risk communication. Here, specific cultural practices unfamiliar to most risk professionals carry significant inherent risks in the eyes of those professionals but not necessarily in the eyes of practitioners. Practitioners' past experience and history as targets of religious suppression and anti-immigrant sentiment create a reluctance to engage with researchers or public health officials in risk assessment or preventive risk communication efforts. The potential for the risk--in this case mercury contamination in dwellings--to extend beyond the practicing community to future occupants adds to public health concern. Understanding the risks of these practices requires both an understanding of the cultural and political context, beliefs, and behaviors of mercury users and an understanding of the fate and transport of mercury in typical use scenarios. In this study, we employed ethnographic methods (interviews and participant observation) to understand beliefs and behavior about mercury use as well as quantitative modeling and measurement to estimate and assess potential exposures. This represents a new methodology tailored to situations in which traditional activities or observances that are integral components of cultural identity pose risks in and of themselves. Our findings indicate that there are different types of mercury use stemming from different cultural and religious traditions that result in different levels of exposure. Many of the mercury uses that can result in the highest exposures to mercury vapors have previously been attributed to the religious tradition of Santeria, but appear instead to have their roots outside of the religion.
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Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.
2016-01-01
Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.
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Bovet, Pascal; Romain, Sarah; Shamlaye, Conrad; Mendis, Shanti; Darioli, Roger; Riesen, Walter; Tappy, Luc; Paccaud, Fred
2009-06-26
Few studies have assessed secular changes in the levels of cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RF) in populations of low or middle income countries. The systematic collection of a broad set of both traditional and metabolic CV-RF in 1989 and 2004 in the population of the Seychelles islands provides a unique opportunity to examine trends at a fairly early stage of the "diabesity" era in a country in the African region. Two examination surveys were conducted in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in 1989 and 2004, attended by respectively 1081 and 1255 participants (participation rates >80%). All results are age-standardized to the WHO standard population. In 2004 vs. 1989, the levels of the main traditional CV-RF have either decreased, e.g. smoking (17% vs. 30%, p or =10; 11% vs. 13%, ns), whereas the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (which integrates several cardiometabolic CVD-RF) nearly doubled (36% vs. 20%, p < 0.001). Data on physical activity and on intake of alcohol, fruit and vegetables are also provided. Awareness and treatment rates improved substantially for hypertension and diabetes, but control rates improved for the former only. Median levels of the cardiometabolic CVD-RF increased between 1989 and 2004 within all BMI strata, suggesting that the worsening levels of cardiometabolic CVD-RF in the population were not only related to increasing BMI levels in the interval. The levels of several traditional CVD-RF improved over time, while marked detrimental trends were observed for obesity, diabetes and several cardiometabolic factors. Thus, in this population, the rapid health transition was characterized by substantial changes in the patterns of CVD-RF. More generally, this analysis suggests the importance of surveillance systems to identify risk factor trends and the need for preventive strategies to promote healthy lifestyles and nutrition.
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Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Waterhouse, Rachel
1992-01-01
The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered
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Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)
1992-07-01
The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.
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Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager
2010-03-15
White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.
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Bioaccessibility and human health risk assessment of lead in soil from Daye City
Li, Q.; Li, F.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Xiong, L.; Huang, J. B.; Fu, J. T.
2018-01-01
Lead (Pb) in soil from 4 sampling sites of Daye City was studied. Bioaccessibilities of Pb in soil were determined by the method of simplified bioaccessible extraction test (SBET). Since traditional health risk assessment was built on the basis of metal total content, the risk may be overestimated. Modified human health risk assessment model considering bioaccessibility was built in this study. Health risk of adults and children exposure to Pb based on total contents and bioaccessible contents were evaluated. The results showed that bioaccessible content of Pb in soil was much lower than its total content, and the average bioaccessible factor (BF) was only 25.37%. The hazard indexes (HIs) for adults and children calculated by two methods were all lower than 1. It indicated that there were no no-carcinogenic risks of Pb for human in Daye. By comparing with the results, the average bioaccessible HIs for adults and children were lower than the total one, which was due to the lower hazard quotient (HQ). Proportions of non-carcinogenic risk exposure to Pb via different pathways have also changed. Particularly, the most main risk exposure pathway for adults turned from the oral ingestion to the inhalation.
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Using risk assessment in periodontics.
Woodman, Alan J
2014-08-01
Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.
2012-01-01
We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)
2012-08-01
We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show
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A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton
2009-01-01
Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a
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Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cathryn Clarke Murray
Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.
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24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.
2010-04-01
... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...
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Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.
2013-08-01
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.
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Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H
2014-08-01
Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach
Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody
2006-01-01
The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor
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Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components
Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.
2016-01-01
The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287
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Avalanche risk assessment in Russia
Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla
2017-04-01
The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended
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Risk assessment in international operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stricklin, Daniela L.
2008-01-01
During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently
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Implications of probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)
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Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.
1994-01-01
The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.
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Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.
1994-01-01
The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation
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Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.
Slovic, P
1999-08-01
Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase
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Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)
2001-07-01
Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical
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Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slovic, Paul
2001-01-01
Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase
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Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.
1997-01-01
Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance
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Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar
2015-04-01
Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Golding, D.; White, A.
1990-12-01
This report discusses the scope of risk assessment strategies in the management of the transport of high-level radioactive wastes. In spite of the shortcomings of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA), the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended this as the preferred methodology to assess the risks of high level nuclear waste (HLNW) transportation. A PRA also will need to heed the lessons learned from the development and application of PRA elsewhere, such as in the nuclear power industry. A set of guidelines will aid this endeavor by outlining the appropriate scope, content, and use of a risk assessment which is more responsive to the uncertainties, human-technical interactions, social forces, and iterative relationship with risk management strategies, than traditional PRAS. This more expansive definition, which encompasses but is not totally reliant on rigorous data requirements and quantitative probability estimates, we term Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA) Guidelines will be developed in three areas: the limitations of existing methodologies and suggested modifications; CRA as part of a flexible, effective, adaptive risk management system for HLNW transportation; and, the use of CRA in risk communication
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Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J
2015-01-01
Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.
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Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)
2009-07-01
Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)
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Evaluation of thermal risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.
1993-01-01
Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision
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On risk assessment of energy production
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kunii, Katsuhiko
2005-07-01
Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)
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Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clauss, D.B.
1994-01-01
This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data
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Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)
The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.
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Risk assessments ensure safer power
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1982-02-19
A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.
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Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao
2017-01-01
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.
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Guarro, Sergio B.
2010-01-01
This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter
2010-01-01
International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...
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Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment
... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...
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Integrated climate change risk assessment:
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten
2017-01-01
Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...
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Yang, Yi; Maxwell, Andrew; Zhang, Xiaowei; Wang, Nan; Perkins, Edward J; Zhang, Chaoyang; Gong, Ping
2013-01-01
Background Pathway alterations reflected as changes in gene expression regulation and gene interaction can result from cellular exposure to toxicants. Such information is often used to elucidate toxicological modes of action. From a risk assessment perspective, alterations in biological pathways are a rich resource for setting toxicant thresholds, which may be more sensitive and mechanism-informed than traditional toxicity endpoints. Here we developed a novel differential networks (DNs) appro...
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Lygizos, Melissa; Shenoi, Sheela V; Brooks, Ralph P; Bhushan, Ambika; Brust, James C M; Zelterman, Daniel; Deng, Yanhong; Northrup, Veronika; Moll, Anthony P; Friedland, Gerald H
2013-07-01
Transmission of drug susceptible and drug resistant TB occurs in health care facilities, and community and households settings, particularly in highly prevalent TB and HIV areas. There is a paucity of data regarding factors that may affect TB transmission risk in household settings. We evaluated air exchange and the impact of natural ventilation on estimated TB transmission risk in traditional Zulu homes in rural South Africa. We utilized a carbon dioxide decay technique to measure ventilation in air changes per hour (ACH). We evaluated predominant home types to determine factors affecting ACH and used the Wells-Riley equation to estimate TB transmission risk. Two hundred eighteen ventilation measurements were taken in 24 traditional homes. All had low ventilation at baseline when windows were closed (mean ACH = 3, SD = 3.0), with estimated TB transmission risk of 55.4% over a ten hour period of exposure to an infectious TB patient. There was significant improvement with opening windows and door, reaching a mean ACH of 20 (SD = 13.1, p ventilation conditions (windows/doors open) and window to volume ratio. Expanding ventilation increased the odds of achieving ≥12 ACH by 60-fold. There is high estimated risk of TB transmission in traditional homes of infectious TB patients in rural South Africa. Improving natural ventilation may decrease household TB transmission risk and, combined with other strategies, may enhance TB control efforts.
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Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk
... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...
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Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott
2016-01-01
Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.
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Cirit, Nazli Ceren
2015-01-01
The purpose of this study is to investigate the perceptions of the ELT pre-service teachers toward the traditional, alternative, and online assessment methods and examine whether the participants' attitudes change toward the types of assessment after the tasks via Web 2.0 tools are implemented. In the light of these aims, the study was conducted…
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Prevalence and risk factors of Parkinson's disease in retired Thai traditional boxers.
Lolekha, Praween; Phanthumchinda, Kammant; Bhidayasiri, Roongroj
2010-09-15
Boxing is often believed to be a frequent cause for parkinsonism caused by chronic repetitive head injury, with Muhammad Ali frequently cited as an example. The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in retired Thai traditional boxers. Two standardized screening questionnaires were sent to all registered Thai traditional boxers. Subjects who screened positive for parkinsonism were invited for clinical examinations by two independent neurologists. Among 704 boxers (70%) who completed the questionnaires, 8 boxers (1.14%) had parkinsonism: 5 with PD, 1 with progressive supranuclear palsy and 2 with vascular parkinsonism. Boxers with PD were found to have an older mean age than those without PD (P = 0.003). The analysis of probable risk factors disclosed an association between the number of professional bouts (>100 times) and PD (P = 0.01). The crude prevalence of PD in Thai boxers was 0.71% (95% CI: 0.09-1.33), with a significant increase with age. The prevalence rate of PD in those aged 50 and above was 0.17% (95% CI: 0.15-0.20), age-adjusted to the USA 1970 census, which is comparable to that of the general populations. The analysis determined that the number of professional bouts is a risk factor among these boxers, supporting the notion that repetitive head trauma may pose an additional risk to certain individuals who are already susceptible to PD. © 2010 Movement Disorder Society.
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Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications
Rausand, Marvin
2011-01-01
With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...
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The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.
2004-01-01
This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)
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Ning, Zhangchi; Lu, Cheng; Zhang, Yuxin; Zhao, Siyu; Liu, Baoqin; Xu, Xuegong; Liu, Yuanyan
2013-07-01
The curative effects of traditional Chinese medicines are principally based on the synergic effect of their multi-targeting, multi-ingredient preparations, in contrast to modern pharmacology and drug development that often focus on a single chemical entity. Therefore, the method employing a few markers or pharmacologically active constituents to assess the quality and authenticity of the complex preparations has a number of severe challenges. Metabonomics can provide an effective platform for complex sample analysis. It is also reported to be applied to the quality analysis of the traditional Chinese medicine. Metabonomics enables comprehensive assessment of complex traditional Chinese medicines or herbal remedies and sample classification of diverse biological statuses, origins, or qualities in samples, by means of chemometrics. Identification, processing, and pharmaceutical preparation are the main procedures in the large-scale production of Chinese medicinal preparations. Through complete scans, plants metabonomics addresses some of the shortfalls of single analyses and presents a considerable potential to become a sharp tool for traditional Chinese medicine quality assessment. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
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Ijaz, Nadine; Boon, Heather; Muzzin, Linda; Welsh, Sandy
2016-12-01
Several United Nations bodies have advised countries to actively preserve Traditional Medicine (TM) knowledge and prevent its misappropriation in regulatory structures. To help advance decision-making around this complex regulatory issue, we examine the relationship between risk discourse, epistemology and policy. This study presents a critical, postcolonial analysis of divergent risk discourses elaborated in two contrasting Ontario (Canada) government reports preceding that jurisdiction's regulation of acupuncture, the world's most widely practised TM therapy. The earlier (1996) report, produced when Ontario's regulatory lobby was largely comprised of Chinese medicine practitioners, presents a risk discourse inclusive of biomedical and TM knowledge claims, emphasizing the principle of regulatory 'equity' as well as historical and sociocultural considerations. Reflecting the interests of an increasingly biomedical practitioner lobby, the later (2001) report uses implicit discursive means to exclusively privilege Western scientific perspectives on risk. This report's policy recommendations, we argue, suggest misappropriation of TM knowledge. We advise regulators to consider equitable adaptations to existing policy structures, and to explicitly include TM evidentiary perspectives in their pre-regulatory assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, Jian-Ping; Han, Mei; Li, Xin-Xue
2013-01-01
Clinical trials on Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) should be registered in a publicly accessible international trial register and report on all outcomes. We systematically assessed and evaluated TCM trials in registries with their subsequent publications.......Clinical trials on Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) should be registered in a publicly accessible international trial register and report on all outcomes. We systematically assessed and evaluated TCM trials in registries with their subsequent publications....
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Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Mousavi
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.
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Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G
2015-11-27
An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter M. J. Bos
2015-11-01
Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.
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Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.V. Mihalchuk
2015-06-01
Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.
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Hrdová, Edita
2012-01-01
This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...
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HPLC-ICP-MS speciation analysis and risk assessment of arsenic in Cordyceps sinensis.
Zuo, Tian-Tian; Li, Yao-Lei; Jin, Hong-Yu; Gao, Fei; Wang, Qi; Wang, Ya-Dan; Ma, Shuang-Cheng
2018-01-01
Cordyceps sinensis , one of the most valued traditional herbal medicines in China, contains high amount of arsenic. Considering the adverse health effects of arsenic, this is of particular concern. The aim of this study was to determine and analyze arsenic speciation in C. sinensis , and to measure the associated human health risks. We used microwave extraction and high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to determine and analyze the arsenic content in C. sinensis , and measured the associated human health risks according to the hazard index (HI), lifetime cancer risk (CR), and target hazard quotient (THQ). The main arsenic speciation in C. sinensis were not the four organic arsenic compounds, including dimethyl arsenic, monomethyl arsenic, arsenobetaine, and arsenocholine, but comprised inorganic arsenic and other unknown risk arsenic compounds. HI scores indicated that the risk of C. sinensis was acceptable. CR results suggested that the cancer risk was greater than the acceptable lifetime risk of 10 -5 , even at low exposure levels. THQ results indicated that at the exposure level 3.0 months/year, the systemic effects of the arsenic in C. sinensis was of great concern. The arsenic in C. sinensis might not be free of risks. The suggested C. sinensis consumption rate of 2.0 months/year provided important insights into the ways by which to minimize potential health risks. Our study not only played the role of "cast a brick to attract jade" by which to analyze arsenic speciation in C. sinensis but also offered a promising strategy of risk assessment for harmful residues in traditional herbal medicines.
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HTGR accident and risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.
1982-01-01
This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration
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Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity
Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.
2013-01-01
This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.
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Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming; Fu, Yingkun
2011-10-01
Currently massive researches have been launched about the safety, efficiency and economy of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine (CPM) proprietary Chinese medicine, but it was lack of a comprehensive interpretation. Establishing the risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model of CPM is the key to solve drug safety problems and protect people's health. The clinical risk factors of CPM exist similarities with the Western medicine, can draw lessons from foreign experience, but also have itself multi-factor multivariate multi-level complex features. Drug safety risk assessment for the uncertainty and complexity, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to empower the index weights, AHP-based fuzzy neural network to build post-marketing CPM risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model and constantly improving the application of traditional Chinese medicine characteristic is accord with the road and feasible beneficial exploration.
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Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.
1995-03-01
Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.
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Bioassays for risk assessment of coal conversion products
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schacht, S.; Sinder, C.; Pfeifer, F.; Klein, J. [DMT-Gesellschaft fuer Forschung und Pruefung mbH, Essen (Germany)
1999-07-01
Traditional as well as biotechnological processing coal leads to complex mixtures of products. Besides chemical and physical characterization, which provides the information for product application, there is a need for bioassays to monitor properties that are probably toxic, mutagenic or cancerogenic. Investigations carried out focused on the selection, adaptation and validation of bioassays for the sensitive estimation of toxic effects. Organisms like bacteria, Daphnia magna and Scenedesmus subspicatus, representing different complexities in the biosphere, were selected as test systems for ecotoxicological and mutagenicity studies. The results obtained indicate that bioassays are, in principle, suitable tools for characterization and evaluation of coal-derived substances and bioconversion products. Using coal products, coal-relevant model compounds and bioconversion products, data for risk assessment are presented. (orig.)
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Bowman, Christopher; Haith, Gary; Steinberg, Alan; Morefield, Charles; Morefield, Michael
2013-05-01
This paper describes methods to affordably improve the robustness of distributed fusion systems by opportunistically leveraging non-traditional data sources. Adaptive methods help find relevant data, create models, and characterize the model quality. These methods also can measure the conformity of this non-traditional data with fusion system products including situation modeling and mission impact prediction. Non-traditional data can improve the quantity, quality, availability, timeliness, and diversity of the baseline fusion system sources and therefore can improve prediction and estimation accuracy and robustness at all levels of fusion. Techniques are described that automatically learn to characterize and search non-traditional contextual data to enable operators integrate the data with the high-level fusion systems and ontologies. These techniques apply the extension of the Data Fusion & Resource Management Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture at Level 4. The DNN architecture supports effectively assessment and management of the expanded portfolio of data sources, entities of interest, models, and algorithms including data pattern discovery and context conformity. Affordable model-driven and data-driven data mining methods to discover unknown models from non-traditional and `big data' sources are used to automatically learn entity behaviors and correlations with fusion products, [14 and 15]. This paper describes our context assessment software development, and the demonstration of context assessment of non-traditional data to compare to an intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance fusion product based upon an IED POIs workflow.
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Risk assessment for halogenated solvents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Travis, C.C.
1988-01-01
A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area
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RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...
This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.
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Risk assessment: An employer's perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Williams, K.C.
1992-01-01
There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime
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Risk assessment: An employer's perspective
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)
1992-07-01
There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.
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RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES
Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov
2017-01-01
The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...
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Calabrese, Edward J
2015-04-01
The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.
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A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment
Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify
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A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment
Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah
2013-01-01
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify
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Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hubert, P.
1984-01-01
More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)
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Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Părăian Mihaela
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Amoutzopoulos, B.; Steer, T.; Roberts, C.
2018-01-01
assessment in population surveys’, was held at the 9th International Conference on Diet and Activity Methods (ICDAM9), Brisbane, September 2015. Despite respondent and researcher burden, traditional methods have been most commonly used in nutrition surveys. However, dietary assessment technologies offer...... of traditional dietary assessment methods (food records, FFQ, 24 h recalls, diet history with interviewer-assisted data collection) v. new technology-based dietary assessment methods (web-based and mobile device applications). The panel discussion ‘Traditional methods v. new technologies: dilemmas for dietary......The aim of the present paper is to summarise current and future applications of dietary assessment technologies in nutrition surveys in developed countries. It includes the discussion of key points and highlights of subsequent developments from a panel discussion to address strengths and weaknesses...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David A. Cleveland
2005-06-01
Full Text Available Proponents of genetically engineered (GE crops often assume that the risk management used in the industrial world is appropriate for small-scale, traditionally based agriculture in the Third World. Opponents of GE crops often assume that risk management is inappropriate for the Third World, because it is inherently biased in favor of the industrial world. We examine both of these assumptions, by rethinking risk management for GE crops and transgenes, using the example of maize transgene flow from the U.S. to Mexico. Risk management for the Third World is a necessary first step of a broader benefit-cost analysis of GE crops, which would include comparisons with existing varieties and with alternative varieties such as transgenic farmer varieties and organic varieties. Our goal is to use existing information on GE crops and on the social and biological characteristics of Third World agriculture to identify key processes that need to be considered in risk management, and the additional research required to adequately understand them. The four main steps in risk management are hazard identification, risk analysis (exposure x harm, risk evaluation, and risk treatment. We use informal event trees to identify possible exposure to GE crops and transgenes, and resulting biological and social harm; give examples of farmers' ability to evaluate social harm; and discuss the possibilities for risk treatment. We conclude that risk management is relevant for Third World agriculture, but needs to be based on the unique biological and social characteristics of small-scale, traditionally based agriculture, including the knowledge and values of Third World farmers and consumers.
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Emotions in Risk Assessment and Decision Making Processes During Craft Practice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Camilla Groth
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Traditionally subjective experiences and emotions have been overlooked in the practice of scientific research. In the field of design and craft research too, feelings and emotions have been considered as interfering with the rigour of research. However, as a result of findings in neuroscience, a new understanding has emerged, providing emotions a central role in risk assessment and decision making processes. This has implications also for how we understand craft practice. In this practice-led research, a craft practitioner analysed five video-recordings of herself while throwing clay blindfolded. The researcher-practitioner specifically studied critical incidents in the throwing process and made a detailed analysis of how sensory experiences and emotions guided her in risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving during the clay-throwing sessions. She found that her tactile experience gave her important clues on the condition of the material and its consequent possibilities at different stages. These experiences in turn affected her emotions in either positive or negative ways, affecting her risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving activities. This research has shown that sensory experiences and emotions influence the craft making process and are thus important elements in the expertise of the craftsperson. The role of such emotions remains to be studied further in the expertise of researchers in general.
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Risk management tools from the traditional energy industry to wind energy projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Randall, G.; Marks, R.
2010-01-01
Risk-based analysis techniques are used to quantify and prioritize a wide variety of problems within the traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power industries. This poster presentation evaluated some of the risk analysis tools and methods used by the energy industry to quantify and manage wind energy development risks. A comprehensive risk-based approach for identifying the probability and consequences of potential concerns was presented for a sample wind energy project. The process determined objectives in relation to the project's net present value. Contributing domains included the energy production, prices, and operating costs of the project. Decision criteria used to evaluate the desirability of the wind project were then developed. Monte Carlo simulations were the used to aggregate individual risks into an overall total. The contribution of each element to the decision objective was calculated separately. The element outputs were than combined into a measure of aggregate risk exposure. Aggregate results were used to calculate the decision criteria. The decision objective was to determine if the energy cost was less than the avoided cost of other project options. The study showed that the approach can allow decision-makers to mitigate risks. However, the results are dependent on the quality of the input data. tabs., figs.
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Chlorine transportation risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.
1977-02-01
An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)
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Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1982-01-01
This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr
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Risk assessment in maritime transportation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.
2001-01-01
A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation
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Framework for ecological risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodier, D.; Norton, S.
1992-02-01
Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten
2017-01-01
to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...
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Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.
Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C
2012-04-01
To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.
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Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: assessment, management and next steps
Zegkos, Thomas; Kitas, George; Dimitroulas, Theodoros
2016-01-01
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality which cannot be fully explained by traditional CV risk factors; cumulative inflammatory burden and antirheumatic medication-related cardiotoxicity seem to be important contributors. Despite the acknowledgment and appreciation of CV disease burden in RA, optimal management of individuals with RA represents a challenging task which remains suboptimal. To address this need, the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) published recommendations suggesting the adaptation of traditional risk scores by using a multiplication factor of 1.5 if two of three specific criteria are fulfilled. Such guidance requires proper coordination of several medical specialties, including general practitioners, rheumatologists, cardiologists, exercise physiologists and psychologists to achieve a desirable result. Tight control of disease activity, management of traditional risk factors and lifestyle modification represent, amongst others, the most important steps in improving CV disease outcomes in RA patients. Rather than enumerating studies and guidelines, this review attempts to critically appraise current literature, highlighting future perspectives of CV risk management in RA. PMID:27247635
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Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Bazin, Christine; Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude; Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain; Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert
2012-08-01
The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the "substances" approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the "matrix" approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, …). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments "1" and "2" presented a low risk for the peripheral aquatic ecosystems while sediment "3
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Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.
1996-01-01
In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)
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A Cyber Security Risk Assessment of Hospital Infrastructure including TLS/SSL and other Threats
Millar, Stuart
2016-01-01
Cyber threats traditionally target governments, financial institutions and businesses. However, of growing concern is the threat to healthcare organizations. This study conducts a cyber security risk assessment of a theoretical hospital environment, to include TLS/SSL, which is an encryption protocol for network communications, plus other physical, logical and human threats. Despite significant budgets in the UK for the NHS, the spend on cyber security appears worryingly low and many hospital...
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Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment
van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.
2012-01-01
Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the
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Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)
Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)
2001-01-01
A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.
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Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.
Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G
2016-07-01
Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag
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Niu, Kaijun; Momma, Haruki; Kobayashi, Yoritoshi; Guan, Lei; Chujo, Masahiko; Otomo, Atsushi; Ouchi, Eriko; Nagatomi, Ryoichi
2016-02-01
Few epidemiological studies have assessed the relationship between the traditional Japanese dietary pattern and longitudinal changes in cardiovascular disease risk factors among Japanese people. We designed a 3-year longitudinal study of 980 subjects living in Japan to evaluate how the Japanese dietary pattern is related to longitudinal changes in well-recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease among apparently healthy Japanese adults. Dietary consumption was assessed via a validated food frequency questionnaire. Principal component analysis was used to derive three major dietary patterns-"Japanese," "sweets-fruits-cooked wheaten food," and "Izakaya (Japanese Pub)" from 39 food groups. After adjustment for potential confounders, the mean (95% confidence interval) for the change per year in diastolic blood pressure for men, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure for women related to the "Japanese" dietary pattern factor score tertiles were 0.89 (0.10, 1.68), 2.25 (0.19, 4.31), and 0.75 (-1.00, 2.50) for the lowest tertile, 0.77 (-0.02, 1.56), 1.01 (-1.13, 3.15), and 0.44 (-1.38, 2.26) for the middle tertile and - 0.04 (-0.81, 0.72), -0.48 (-2.52, 1.56), and -0.77 (-2.51, 0.96) for the highest tertile (trend P value = 0.03, pattern factor score tertiles and the longitudinal change in serum triglyceride concentration only in men (trend P value = 0.02). Greater adherence to a traditional Japanese diet was independently related to a decreased change every year in diastolic blood pressure in men and women and in systolic blood pressure in women over a 3-year follow-up period. The findings suggest that the "Japanese" dietary pattern appeared to be related to a fall in blood pressure, which might have a beneficial effect on cardiovascular disease. A randomized trial is required to clarify the underlying mechanism.
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Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.
2011-01-01
Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit
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Pro et con analysis of existing ranking and occupational risk assessment concepts for Nanomaterials
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Steffen Foss; Alstrup-Jensen, Keld; Baun, Anders
2013-01-01
There is an urgent need for adaptive, transparent, easy comprehensible and communicational and yet robust scientific methods, approaches and frameworks to evaluate the potential of exposure, hazard and risk related to the production and application of nanomaterials. A number of alternatives...... and discuss various elements of the tools (input data requirements, risk evaluation and risk handling) as well as pros and cons. We find that most of the tools provide a transparent and comprehensible approach and a few include risk management and communication going well beyond what is normally considered...... in traditional risk assessment. Most of the concepts available today however, is that their input data requirements are fairly high and some of the scientific information needed in order to apply them is inconclusive at the moment or non-existing. Some of the concepts are furthermore based on purely theoretical...
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Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel
2016-01-01
Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the
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Ocean acidification risk assessment for Alaska's fishery sector
Mathis, J. T.; Cooley, S. R.; Lucey, N.; Colt, S.; Ekstrom, J.; Hurst, T.; Hauri, C.; Evans, W.; Cross, J. N.; Feely, R. A.
2015-08-01
The highly productive fisheries of Alaska are located in seas projected to experience strong global change, including rapid transitions in temperature and ocean acidification-driven changes in pH and other chemical parameters. Many of the marine organisms that are most intensely affected by ocean acidification (OA) contribute substantially to the state's commercial fisheries and traditional subsistence way of life. Prior studies of OA's potential impacts on human communities have focused only on possible direct economic losses from specific scenarios of human dependence on commercial harvests and damages to marine species. However, other economic and social impacts, such as changes in food security or livelihoods, are also likely to result from climate change. This study evaluates patterns of dependence on marine resources within Alaska that could be negatively impacted by OA and current community characteristics to assess the potential risk to the fishery sector from OA. Here, we used a risk assessment framework based on one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze earth-system global ocean model hindcasts and projections of ocean chemistry, fisheries harvest data, and demographic information. The fisheries examined were: shellfish, salmon and other finfish. The final index incorporates all of these data to compare overall risk among Alaska's federally designated census areas. The analysis showed that regions in southeast and southwest Alaska that are highly reliant on fishery harvests and have relatively lower incomes and employment alternatives likely face the highest risk from OA. Although this study is an intermediate step toward our full understanding, the results presented here show that OA merits consideration in policy planning, as it may represent another challenge to Alaskan communities, some of which are already under acute socio-economic strains.
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Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-03-01
This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site
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Gurven, Michael; Jaeggi, Adrian V; von Rueden, Chris; Hooper, Paul L; Kaplan, Hillard
2015-08-01
Sharing and exchange are common practices for minimizing food insecurity in rural populations. The advent of markets and monetization in egalitarian indigenous populations presents an alternative means of managing risk, with the potential impact of eroding traditional networks. We test whether market involvement buffers several types of risk and reduces traditional sharing behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of the Bolivian Amazon. Results vary based on type of market integration and scale of analysis (household vs. village), consistent with the notion that local culture and ecology shape risk management strategies. Greater wealth and income were unassociated with the reliance on others for food, or on reciprocity, but wealth was associated with a greater proportion of food given to others (i.e., giving intensity) and a greater number of sharing partners (i.e., sharing breadth). Across villages, greater mean income was negatively associated with reciprocity, but economic inequality was positively associated with giving intensity and sharing breadth. Incipient market integration does not necessarily replace traditional buffering strategies but instead can often enhance social capital.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shauna-Lee Chai
Full Text Available Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis, tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis, and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula. We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.
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RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oksana G. Feoktistova
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.
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Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya
2016-12-01
To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.
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Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment
Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto
2017-04-01
Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.
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Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment
van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul
2012-01-01
Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)
2017-04-15
Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav
2017-01-01
Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.
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Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.
Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L
2008-07-01
The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would
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Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.
2012-01-01
heaters are some of the most critical high risk items in refineries specially where high viscosity products with high Total Acid Number (TAN) and high sulfur levels are processed. Often, the highest risks are in delayed coker furnaces where tube failures have occurred in some plants due to a combination of damage mechanisms such as coking, carburisation and creep. Fired heater tubes have traditionally been inspected by external inspection. A key development aimed at minimizing risk is advanced inspection using intelligent ultrasonic pigs such as FTIS TM followed by remaining life assessment (LifeQuest Heater TM ) and optimized furnace burner setup.
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Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, S.Y.
1993-01-01
Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials
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Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Le Duy, T.D.
2011-01-01
The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)
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A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2013-11-15
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.
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A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah
2013-01-01
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary
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Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens
2014-01-01
What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...
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Risk assessment - black art or science?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moore, G.
1988-01-01
Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)
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Lalonde, Gabrielle; Henry, Mylène; Drouin-Germain, Anne; Nolin, Pierre; Beauchamp, Miriam H
2013-09-30
Paper-pencil type tests are traditionally used in the assessment of executive functions (EF); however, concerns have been raised as to whether these represent actual functioning in everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) environments offer a novel alternative for the assessment of cognitive function and therefore have the potential to enhance the evaluation of EF by presenting individuals with stimuli that come closer to reproducing everyday situations. The aims of this study were to (1) establish which traditional paper-pencil EF tests from the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) are associated with performance on a VR-Stroop task and (2) compare D-KEFS tests and the VR-Stroop task in their ability to predict everyday EF and behavior, as measured by the Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Thirty-eight typically developing adolescents aged between 13 and 17 years completed the ClinicaVR: Classroom-Stroop, and five D-KEFS subtests (Trail Making, Tower, Twenty Questions, Verbal Fluency and Color-Word Interference). Their parents completed the BRIEF and CBCL questionnaires. The results indicate that performance on the VR-Stroop task correlates with both traditional forms of EF assessment (D-KEFS, BRIEF). In particular, performance on the VR-Stroop task was closely associated with performance on a paper-pencil inhibition task. Furthermore, VR-Stroop performance more accurately reflected everyday behavioral EF than paper-pencil tasks. VR appears to offer an ecological perspective on everyday functioning and could be seen as complementary to traditional tests in the assessment of complex cognitive abilities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Concerning ethical risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boeckle, F.
1991-01-01
After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de
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National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)
2007-01-01
Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...
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A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hechanova, A.E.
2001-01-01
The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)
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Caries risk assessment in children
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Twetman, S
2016-01-01
PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...
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Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M
2017-09-01
Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.
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[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].
Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao
2012-12-01
Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.
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OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...
The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.
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Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Chang-Ju; Lee, Kun Jai
2006-01-01
The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If we take various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering specific systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, we believe that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this paper proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. We developed and verified an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, we could connect the results of probabilistic inference from the Bayesian network with the consequence
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Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience
Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab
2015-04-01
. Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.
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Tools for Microbiological risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland
can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...
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Modeling for operational event risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sattison, M.B.
1997-01-01
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose
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Wainwright, D.J.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.P.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Jongejan, R.; Dougherty, A.J.; Rogers, K.; Cowell, P.J.
2015-01-01
Traditional methods for assessing coastal hazards have not typically incorporated a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. Such treatment is necessary to enable risk assessments which are now required by emerging risk based coastal zone management/planning frameworks. While unresolved issues remain,
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffman, D.R.
2003-01-01
In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)
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Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.
Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim
2005-03-01
One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.
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Murray, Robin M; Quigley, Harriet; Quattrone, Diego; Englund, Amir; Di Forti, Marta
2016-10-01
Epidemiological evidence demonstrates that cannabis use is associated with an increased risk of psychotic outcomes, and confirms a dose-response relationship between the level of use and the risk of later psychosis. High-potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids carry the greatest risk. Experimental administration of tetrahydrocannabinol, the active ingredient of cannabis, induces transient psychosis in normal subjects, but this effect can be ameliorated by co-administration of cannabidiol. This latter is a constituent of traditional hashish, but is largely absent from modern high-potency forms of cannabis. Argument continues over the extent to which genetic predisposition is correlated to, or interacts with, cannabis use, and what proportion of psychosis could be prevented by minimizing heavy use. As yet, there is not convincing evidence that cannabis use increases risk of other psychiatric disorders, but there are no such doubts concerning its detrimental effect on cognitive function. All of the negative aspects are magnified if use starts in early adolescence. Irrespective of whether use of cannabis is decriminalized or legalized, the evidence that it is a component cause of psychosis is now sufficient for public health messages outlining the risk, especially of regular use of high-potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids. © 2016 World Psychiatric Association.
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Murray, Robin M.; Quigley, Harriet; Quattrone, Diego; Englund, Amir; Di Forti, Marta
2016-01-01
Epidemiological evidence demonstrates that cannabis use is associated with an increased risk of psychotic outcomes, and confirms a dose‐response relationship between the level of use and the risk of later psychosis. High‐potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids carry the greatest risk. Experimental administration of tetrahydrocannabinol, the active ingredient of cannabis, induces transient psychosis in normal subjects, but this effect can be ameliorated by co‐administration of cannabidiol. This latter is a constituent of traditional hashish, but is largely absent from modern high‐potency forms of cannabis. Argument continues over the extent to which genetic predisposition is correlated to, or interacts with, cannabis use, and what proportion of psychosis could be prevented by minimizing heavy use. As yet, there is not convincing evidence that cannabis use increases risk of other psychiatric disorders, but there are no such doubts concerning its detrimental effect on cognitive function. All of the negative aspects are magnified if use starts in early adolescence. Irrespective of whether use of cannabis is decriminalized or legalized, the evidence that it is a component cause of psychosis is now sufficient for public health messages outlining the risk, especially of regular use of high‐potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids. PMID:27717258
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Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Birnbacher, D.
1991-01-01
Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de
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Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Cooney, Marie Therese
2011-09-01
The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.
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Risk assessment of carcinogens in food
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef
2010-01-01
Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.
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Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.
Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef
2010-03-01
Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.
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Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Deriot, S.
1992-10-01
This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified
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Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Fielder
2018-06-01
Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.
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Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.
2009-01-01
Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.
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Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.
1984-01-01
Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each
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Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment
Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy
2015-04-01
Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?
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Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ogata, Hiromitsu
2011-01-01
Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)
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Traditional and Local Knowledge Practices for Disaster Risk Reduction in Northern Ghana
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nsioh Macnight Ngwese
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In order to deal with recurrent disasters, like floods and droughts coupled with the limited adaptive capacity, in the semiarid regions of Northern Ghana, local communities have no choice but to apply traditional and local knowledge practices. This study seeks to identify such practices employed in selected rural communities in Northern Ghana and to investigate their effectiveness. Data were collected through key informant interviews, household questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and participant observations. The findings indicated that although diverse practices were applied to predict and manage local disaster events, skepticism prevailed among locals toward these practices regarding their effectiveness. Due to the lack of science-based tools and systems for disaster prediction and management, local communities continually depended on these knowledge systems and practices. Integrating local and traditional disaster risk reduction (DRR efforts into modern scientific knowledge should be encouraged in order to reduce the vulnerability of local communities to disasters with thorough effectiveness evaluation protocols.
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Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.
2005-10-01
The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.
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Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Perrodin, Yves, E-mail: perrodin@entpe.fr [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Donguy, Gilles [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Bazin, Christine [INSAVALOR, 20 avenue Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); INRA, USC IGH, UMR LEHNA, 2, rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert [INSAVALOR, 20 avenue Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)
2012-08-01
The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the 'substances' approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the 'matrix' approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, Horizontal-Ellipsis ). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments '1' and '2' presented a low risk for
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Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Bazin, Christine; Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude; Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain; Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert
2012-01-01
The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the “substances” approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the “matrix” approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, …). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments “1” and “2” presented a low risk for the peripheral aquatic ecosystems while
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Sovereign default risk assessment
Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.
2013-01-01
We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute
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Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jamali, K.
1997-01-01
This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude
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PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.
1996-01-01
A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques
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Risk assessment for transport operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.
1990-01-01
The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)
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Health risk assessment linked to filling coastal quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Emmanuel, Evens; Winiarski, Thierry
2014-01-01
Dredged seaport sediments raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. Traditional waste treatments are poorly adapted for these materials in terms of absorbable volumes and cost. In this context, filling quarries with treated sediments appears interesting but its safety regarding human health must be demonstrated. To achieve this, a specific methodology for assessing health risks has been developed and tested on three seaport sediments. This methodology includes the development of a conceptual model of the global scenario studied and the definition of specific protocols for each of its major steps. The approach proposed includes in particular the use of metrological and experimental tools that are new in this context: (i) an experimental lysimeter for characterizing the deposit emissions, and (ii) a geological radar for identifying potential preferential pathways between the sediment deposit and the groundwater. The application of this approach on the three sediments tested for the scenario studied showed the absence of health risk associated with the consumption of groundwater for substances having a “threshold effect” (risk quotient −6 ). - Highlights: • The release of polluted dredged seaport sediments into the sea must be avoided. • Their use after treatment for the filling-up of quarries is proposed by managers. • An original health risk assessment methodology was created to validate this option. • It includes the use of a lysimeter and a georadar for the exposure assessment stage. • The example studied concludes to a health risk linked to arsenic in the groundwater
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Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason Dunham
1999-06-01
Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.
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Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing
Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)
2009-01-01
A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.
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Probabilistic risk assessment: A look at the role of artificial intelligence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, J.; Modarres, M.; Hunt, R.N.M.
1988-01-01
A review of traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods used in the nuclear power industry is presented. The shortcomings of the current PRA methods are pointed out. A method of performing a PRA is proposed and is computerized. The role of artificial intelligence in developing and performing the proposed PRA approach is discussed. The proposed PRA approach is verified by comparing the results to previously performed PRAs. The comparisons have supported the adequacy and completeness of the results of the proposed model. A discussion of how the proposed method can be used as an expert system to verify plant status following loss of plant hardware is also presented. (orig.)
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Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change
Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.
2009-01-01
Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
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NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process
Francisco, D.; Romero, E.
2016-01-01
NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary
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Risk assessment research and technology assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.
1991-01-01
The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de
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Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael
2013-01-01
A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…
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Health risk assessment linked to filling coastal quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Perrodin, Yves, E-mail: yves.perrodin@entpe.fr [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Donguy, Gilles [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Emmanuel, Evens [Laboratoire de Qualité de l' Eau et de l' Environnement, Université Quisqueya, BP 796 Port-au-Prince (Haiti); Winiarski, Thierry [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France)
2014-07-01
Dredged seaport sediments raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. Traditional waste treatments are poorly adapted for these materials in terms of absorbable volumes and cost. In this context, filling quarries with treated sediments appears interesting but its safety regarding human health must be demonstrated. To achieve this, a specific methodology for assessing health risks has been developed and tested on three seaport sediments. This methodology includes the development of a conceptual model of the global scenario studied and the definition of specific protocols for each of its major steps. The approach proposed includes in particular the use of metrological and experimental tools that are new in this context: (i) an experimental lysimeter for characterizing the deposit emissions, and (ii) a geological radar for identifying potential preferential pathways between the sediment deposit and the groundwater. The application of this approach on the three sediments tested for the scenario studied showed the absence of health risk associated with the consumption of groundwater for substances having a “threshold effect” (risk quotient < 1), and an acceptable risk for substances having a “non-threshold effect”, with the notable exception of arsenic (individual risk equal to 3.10{sup −6}). - Highlights: • The release of polluted dredged seaport sediments into the sea must be avoided. • Their use after treatment for the filling-up of quarries is proposed by managers. • An original health risk assessment methodology was created to validate this option. • It includes the use of a lysimeter and a georadar for the exposure assessment stage. • The example studied concludes to a health risk linked to arsenic in the groundwater.
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Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.
1990-01-01
During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)
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Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ott, K.O.
1976-04-01
The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed
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The evolution of violence risk assessment.
Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L
2014-10-01
Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.
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Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ali, M.M.
2007-01-01
Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed
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Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.
2006-01-01
Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency
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The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marek Burda
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.
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Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides
Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.
2009-01-01
Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to
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Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view
Ebner, G.
2009-04-01
Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.
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Risk assessment and management in IOR projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.
1994-01-01
The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)
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Risk assessment and nuclear power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bodansky, D.
1982-01-01
The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.
1990-09-01
The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established
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Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve
2013-01-01
Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)
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A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region
Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto
2016-04-01
Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on
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INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS
The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...
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A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hechanova, A.E.
2000-01-01
The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)
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Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.
2009-01-01
modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...
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Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.
1991-09-01
A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs
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Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie
2014-04-01
Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions
Heimsch, Laura
2016-01-01
The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.
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Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil
2001-01-01
Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)
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Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography
Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.
2015-04-01
Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric
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Site remediation guided by risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.
2002-01-01
'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil
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Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database
Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...
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Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS
Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.
2006-01-01
Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from
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Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.
Elwood, Richard W
2016-12-01
There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.
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Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.
Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma
2009-04-01
There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.
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Li, Sijia; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Feng; Ma, Qiyun; Mu, Guangyi
2017-10-01
The extensive use of a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing in ecological risk assessment from a spatiotemporal perspective complements ecological environment management. Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), which is a complex mixture of organic matter that can be estimated via remote sensing, carries and produces carcinogenic disinfection by-products and organic pollutants in various aquatic environments. This paper reports the first ecological risk assessment, which was conducted in 2016, of CDOM in the Yinma River watershed including riverine waters, reservoir waters, and urban waters. Referring to the risk formation theory of natural disaster, the entropy evaluation method and DPSIR (driving force-pressure-state-impact-response) framework were coupled to establish a hazard and vulnerability index with multisource data, i.e., meteorological, remote sensing, experimental, and socioeconomic data, of this watershed. This ecological vulnerability assessment indicator system contains 23 indicators with respect to ecological sensitivity, ecological pressure, and self-resilience. The characteristics of CDOM absorption parameters from different waters showed higher aromatic content and molecular weights in May because of increased terrestrial inputs. The assessment results indicated that the overall ecosystem risk in the study area was focused in the extremely, heavily, and moderately vulnerable regions. The ecological risk assessment results objectively reflect the regional ecological environment and demonstrate the potential of ecological risk assessment of pollutants over traditional chemical measurements. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Steyerberg, Ewout W; Vickers, Andrew J; Cook, Nancy R
2010-01-01
The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver...
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Assessing the performance of prediction models: A framework for traditional and novel measures
E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); A.J. Vickers (Andrew); N.R. Cook (Nancy); T.A. Gerds (Thomas); M. Gonen (Mithat); N. Obuchowski (Nancy); M. Pencina (Michael); M.W. Kattan (Michael)
2010-01-01
textabstractThe performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the
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Turturro, A; Hart, R W
1987-01-01
A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.
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Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ø.J. Rødseth
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.
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Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1995-05-01
This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site
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Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.
Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei
2018-01-01
Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Risk assessment using probabilistic standards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avila, R.
2004-01-01
A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim
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Risk assessment in support of plant health
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.
2012-01-01
environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...
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Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.
Wallace, W Jon
2007-03-01
Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.
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Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.
1996-01-01
The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures
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An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun
2005-01-01
The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species
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Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kai, Michiaki
2012-01-01
This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yun, Chun-Ho; Lin, Tin-Yu; Wu, Yih-Jer; Liu, Chuan-Chuan; Kuo, Jen-Yuan; Yeh, Hung-I.; Yang, Fei-Shih; Chen, Su-Chiu; Hou, Charles Jia-Yin; Bezerra, Hiram G.; Hung, Chung-Lieh; Cury, Ricardo C.
2012-01-01
Background: Coronary atherosclerosis has traditionally been proposed to be associated with several cardiovascular risk factors and anthropometric measures. However, clinical data regarding the independent value of visceral adipose tissue in addition to such traditional predictors remains obscure. Materials and methods: We subsequently studied 719 subjects (age: 48.1 ± 8.3 years, 25% females) who underwent multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) for coronary calcium score (CCS) quantification. Baseline demographic data and anthropometric measures were taken with simultaneous body fat composition estimated. Visceral adipose tissue of pericardial and thoracic peri-aortic fat was quantified by MDCT using TeraRecon Aquarius workstation (San Mateo, CA). Traditional cardiovascular risk stratification was calculated by metabolic (NCEP ATP III) and Framingham (FRS) scores and high-sensitivity CRP (Hs-CRP) was taken to represent systemic inflammation. The independent value of visceral adipose tissue to systemic inflammation and CCS was assessed by utilizing multivariable regression analysis. Results: Of all subjects enrolled in this study, the mean values for pericardial and peri-aortic adipose tissue were 74.23 ± 27.51 and 7.23 ± 3.69 ml, respectively. Higher visceral fat quartile groups were associated with graded increase of risks for cardiovascular diseases. Both adipose burdens strongly correlated with anthropometric measures including waist circumference, body weight and body mass index (all p < 0.001). In addition, both visceral amount correlates well with ATP and FRS scores, all lipid profiles and systemic inflammation marker in terms of Hs-CRP (all p < 0.001). After adjustment for baseline variables, both visceral fat were independently related to Hs-CRP levels (all p < 0.05), but only pericardial fat exerted independent role in coronary calcium deposit. Conclusion: Both visceral adipose tissues strongly correlated with systemic inflammation beyond traditional
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Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heikkeroe, Topi
2006-01-01
This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology
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A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making
Dezfuli, Homayoon
2010-01-01
This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.
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Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Segerstaahl, Boris
1989-01-01
Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)
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Chan, Heng Choon Oliver; Chui, Wing Hong
2015-01-01
Background: Little is known about the level of social bond elements and their effects on delinquency among nonadjudicated (traditional low and at-risk school-aged) and adjudicated Chinese male adolescents. Objective: Using a large adolescent sample (N = 1,177) from Hong Kong and Macau, this study aims to distinguish the level of social bond…
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Assessment of health risks of policies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana
2014-01-01
The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals
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Assessment of health risks of policies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others
2014-09-15
The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.
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Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...
Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c
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Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Page, D
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...
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Cloud computing assessing the risks
Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard
2012-01-01
Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.
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Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomson, J.R.
1994-01-01
This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)
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SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreea ARMEAN
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.
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New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.
Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel
2016-01-01
Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.
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Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sabre J. Coleman
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.
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Can we (actually) assess global risk?
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
2013-04-01
The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much
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Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity
Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca
2015-07-01
Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.
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Methodology for technical risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.
1983-01-01
A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions
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Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.
Hoffmann, Sandra
2011-09-01
Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Landis, Wayne G
2005-01-01
...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...
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Mammal Distribution in Nunavut: Inuit Harvest Data and COSEWIC's Species at Risk Assessment Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karen A. Kowalchuk
2012-09-01
Full Text Available The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC assesses risk potential for a species by evaluating the best available information from all knowledge sources including Aboriginal traditional knowledge (ATK. Effective application of ATK in this process has been challenging. Inuit knowledge (IK of mammal distribution in Nunavut is reflected, in part, in the harvest spatial data from two comprehensive studies: the Use and Occupancy Mapping (UOM Study conducted by the Nunavut Planning Commission (NPC and the Nunavut Wildlife Harvest Study (WHS conducted by the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB. The geographic range values of extent of occurrence (EO and area of occupancy (AO were derived from the harvest data for a selected group of mammals and applied to Phase I of the COSEWIC assessment process. Values falling below threshold values can trigger a potential risk designation of either endangered (EN or threatened (TH for the species being assessed. The IK values and status designations were compared with available COSEWIC data. There was little congruency between the two sets of data. We conclude that there are major challenges within the risk assessment process and specifically the calculation of AO that contributed to the disparity in results. Nonetheless, this application illustrated that Inuit harvest data in Nunavut represents a unique and substantial source of ATK that should be used to enrich the knowledge base on arctic mammal distribution and enhance wildlife management and conservation planning.
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Risk assessment future cash flows
Chachina H. G.
2012-01-01
This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.
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Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment
Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...
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Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)
2017-01-01
Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.
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2011-07-27
...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...
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Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.
2016-01-01
Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I
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Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M. [ORNL; Guler Yigitoglu, Askin [ORNL
2017-06-01
Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.
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Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bari, R.A.
1985-01-01
This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)
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Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy
Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
2018-01-01
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800
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Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.
Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
2018-06-13
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).
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Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy
Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja
2018-06-01
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.
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General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)
1992-07-01
In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before
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General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murphy, Patrick
1992-01-01
In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before
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An Assessment Of Traditional Uighur Medicine In Current Xinjiang ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Results: Data showed that, among the registered and studied traditional Uighur medicine, the main therapeutic areas of traditional Uighur medicine focused on skin disease, urogenital disease, rheumatism and digestive system disease. The representative traditional Uighur patent medicine included the following: ...
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New method for assessing risks of email
Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad
2013-03-01
E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.
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Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M
2017-05-01
Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wolt Jeffrey D
2009-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.
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Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment
EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.
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Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bernhardt, J.
1993-01-01
The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de
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Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.
Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian
2015-01-01
Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.
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2013-03-13
.... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...
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Assessment of risk from radiation sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.
1976-01-01
Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.
2009-01-01
Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.
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Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment
2005-01-01
The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi
2010-01-01
Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)
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Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Montague, Peter
2004-01-01
Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilmot, R.D.
2002-10-01
The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)
2002-10-01
The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented
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Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narumiya, Yoshiyuki
2015-01-01
Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)
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Mittler, Jessica N; Landon, Bruce E; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Cleary, Paul D
2011-10-14
Medicare beneficiaries' awareness of Medicare managed care plans is critical for realizing the potential benefits of coverage choices. To assess the relationships of the number of Medicare risk plans, managed care penetration, and stability of plans in an area with traditional Medicare beneficiaries' awareness of the program. Cross-sectional analysis of Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data about beneficiaries' awareness and knowledge of Medicare managed care plan availability. Logistic regression models used to assess the relationships between awareness and market characteristics. Traditional Medicare beneficiaries (n = 3,597) who had never been enrolled in Medicare managed care, but had at least one plan available in their area in 2002, and excluding beneficiaries under 65, receiving Medicaid, or with end stage renal disease. Traditional Medicare beneficiaries' knowledge of Medicare managed care plans in general and in their area. Having more Medicare risk plans available was significantly associated with greater awareness, and having an intermediate number of plans (2-4) was significantly associated with more accurate knowledge of Medicare risk plan availability than was having fewer or more plans. Medicare may have more success engaging consumers in choice and capturing the benefits of plan competition by more actively selecting and managing the plan choice set. Public Domain.
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Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering
2010-09-15
This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.
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Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1993-03-01
This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.
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Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de
2009-01-01
The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified
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Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.
2010-01-01
An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.
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Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA
Brock, T.C.M.
2016-01-01
EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee
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Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, van A.M.; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.
2014-01-01
This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the
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Apperception and assessment of technological risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.
1986-01-01
Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de
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Song, Hai-bo; Du, Xiao-xi; Ren, Jing-tian; Yang, Le; Guo, Xiao-xin; Pang, Yu
2015-04-01
The adverse reaction monitoring is important in warning the risks of traditional Chinese medicines at an early stage, finding potential quality problems and ensuring the safe clinical medication. In the study, efforts were made to investigate the risk signal mining techniques in line with the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicines, particularly the complexity in component, processing, compatibility, preparation and clinical medication, find early risk signals of traditional Chinese medicines and establish a traditional Chinese medicine safety evaluation system based on adverse reaction risk signals, in order to improve the target studies on traditional Chinese medicine safety, effective and timely control risks and solve the existing frequent safety issue in traditional Chinese medicines.
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Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions
Remington, Benjamin C.
2017-09-01
Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.
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Safety evaluation for the LMFBR plant using probabilistic risk assessment techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kani, Y.; Aizawa, K.
1987-01-01
This paper presents an application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to a typical loop-type liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) plant in the detailed design stage. A comprehensive systems analysis has been performed to identify event sequences leading to core damage and provide insights into the importance of accident contributors. While traditional event tree/fault tree modeling was used for the analysis, this study involved a thorough investigation of initiating events and of support system faults. The qualification of accident sequences has been conducted by combining the fault trees based on the event trees and obtaining sequence cut sets with the use of the SETS code. This study also attempted to quantify the potential for operator recovery actions in the course of each accident sequence. (author)
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Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering
Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.
2015-11-01
Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.
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Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ragozin, A.L.
1998-01-01
Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)
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Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.
2003-01-01
The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)
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Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!
White, Donald E
2011-01-01
Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Suter II, G.W.
2003-06-18
The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.
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Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.
Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Protopsaltis Ioannis
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Central arterial stiffness represents a well-established predictor of cardiovascular disease. Decreased circulating endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs, increased asymmetric dimethyl-arginine (ADMA levels, traditional cardiovascular risk factors and insulin resistance have all been associated with increased arterial stiffness. The correlations of novel and traditional cardiovascular risk factors with central arterial stiffness in prediabetic individuals were investigated in the present study. Methods The study population consisted of 53 prediabetic individuals. Individuals were divided into groups of isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG, isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and combined IGT-IFG. Age, sex, family history of diabetes, smoking history, body mass index (BMI, waist to hip ratio (WHR, waist circumference (WC, blood pressure, lipid profile, levels of high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, glomerular filtration rate (GFR, and history of antihypertensive or statin therapy were obtained from all participants. Insulin resistance was evaluated using the Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA-IR. Carotid -femoral pulse wave velocity was used as an index of arterial stiffness. Circulating EPC count and ADMA serum levels were also determined. Results Among studied individuals 30 (56.6% subjects were diagnosed with isolated IFG, 9 (17% with isolated IGT (17% and 14 with combined IFG-IGT (26.4%. In univariate analysis age, mean blood pressure, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and ADMA levels positively correlated with pulse-wave velocity while exercise and GFR correlated negatively. EPC count did not correlate with PWV. In multivariate stepwise regression analysis PWV correlated independently and positively with LDL-Cholesterol (low density lipoprotein and ADMA levels and negatively with exercise. Conclusions Elevated ADMA and LDL-C levels are strongly associated with increased arterial stiffness among
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Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.
Horie, Seichi
2010-09-01
Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.
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Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seichi Horie
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.
1991-01-01
The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de
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Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management
Koks, E.E.; Jongman, B.; Husby, T.G.; Botzen, W.J.W.
2015-01-01
Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to
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Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannu Anttonen
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.
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RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT
Szabo Alina
2012-01-01
Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...
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Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Choy, Wai Nang
2001-01-01
... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje
2016-01-01
A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.
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Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N
Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...
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Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food
Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.
2000-01-01
Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews
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Waugh, Mark H; Hopwood, Christopher J; Krueger, Robert F; Morey, Leslie C; Pincus, Aaron L; Wright, Aidan G C
2017-04-01
The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fifth Edition (DSM-5) Section III Alternative Model for Personality Disorders (AMPD; APA, 2013) represents an innovative system for simultaneous psychiatric classification and psychological assessment of personality disorders (PD). The AMPD combines major paradigms of personality assessment and provides an original, heuristic, flexible, and practical framework that enriches clinical thinking and practice. Origins, emerging research, and clinical application of the AMPD for diagnosis and psychological assessment are reviewed. The AMPD integrates assessment and research traditions, facilitates case conceptualization, is easy to learn and use, and assists in providing patient feedback. New as well as existing tests and psychometric methods may be used to operationalize the AMPD for clinical assessments.
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The critical assessment of research traditional and new methods of evaluation
Bailin, Alan
2010-01-01
This book examines the following factors: sponsorship of research, control of the dissemination of research, effects of dominant research paradigms, financial interests of authors, publishers, and editors, role of new technologies (for example, Web 2.0).It is widely accepted among researchers and educators that the peer review process, the reputation of the publisher and examination of the author's credentials are the gold standards for assessing the quality of research and information. However, the traditional gold standards are not sufficient, and the effective evaluation of information req
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Assessment and perception of risk
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Daglish, J
1981-01-01
A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.
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Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.
1988-01-01
This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)
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2013-10-29
.... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk Assessment As explained in the draft RA, we conducted the...
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Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool
Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.
2010-01-01
The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.
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Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nielsen Louise Hjort
2015-12-01
Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.
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An approach to risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla
1998-01-01
of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....
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Hormesis in Regulatory risk assessment - Science and Science Policy.
Gray, George
2011-01-01
This brief commentary will argue that whether hormesis is considered in regulatory risk assessment is a matter less of science than of science policy. I will first discuss the distinction between science and science policy and their roles in regulatory risk assessment. Then I will focus on factors that influence science policy, especially as it relates to the conduct of risk assessments to inform regulatory decisions, with a focus on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The key questions will then be how does hormesis interact with current concepts of science and science policy for risk assessment? Finally, I look ahead to factors that may increase, or decrease, the likelihood of hormesis being incorporated into regulatory risk assessment.
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TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS RISK ASSESSMENT USING FINDRISC IN PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. V. Kondratyeva
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Objective: to investigate the prevalence of traditional risk factors (RFs and to determine a 10-year risk for type 2 (T2 diabetes mellitus (DM, by using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA.Subjects and methods. The investigation enrolled 418 RA patients without a history of DM. The median age of the participants was 54 [41; 63] years; the median disease duration was 6 [2; 12] years. Most of the patients were positive for rheumatoid factor (75.6% and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (77.3% and had moderate and high RA activity (81.8%. Glucocorticoids (GCs, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, and biological agents were used in 42.1, 66.7, and 23.9% of the patients, respectively. FINDRISC was used to assess the risk of T2DM. A control group consisted of 100 gender- and age-matched individuals without inflammatory joint diseases or DM.Results and discussion. The most common modifiable traditional RFs in RA were abdominal obesity (AO (63.6%, overweight (50.7%, and lack of physical activity (70.3%; the non-modifiable RF was age older than 45 years (69.1%. The RA and control groups showed the similar prevalence of RFs, except for AO that was more common in the absence of inflammatory joint diseases (75.0% (p = 0.03. The number of RFs did not differ in RA patients (median RFs, 4 [2; 5] and control individuals (4 [3; 5] (p = 0.23. The moderate risk of developing T2DM in the ensuing ten years was 20.1 and 18.0% in RA patients and control individuals, respectively; the high risk was in 19.6 and 24.0% and the very high risk was in 2.7 and 2.0%, respectively (p > 0.05 in all cases. In RA, there was a weak correlation between the number of RFs and DAS28 (r = 0.10; p = 0.05, RFs and HAQ (r = 0.19; p < 0.01. Examinations detected fasting hyperglycemia (glucose ≥6.1 mmol/l in 3.8% of the RA patients with a low/slightly increased risk for T2DM and in 16.1% of those with its moderate
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2011-06-28
...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... available for public comment the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft... plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/brs...
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Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program
An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.
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Microbiological risk assessment and public health
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roger Skinner
1992-01-01
Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential
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Microbiological risk assessment and public health
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skinner, Roger
1992-07-01
Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.
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On the use of conservatism in risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje
2016-01-01
It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.
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Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment
Bashkin, Vladimir N
2006-01-01
Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem
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Test reactor risk assessment methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.
1976-04-01
A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor
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Pacheco, Antonio G; Grinsztejn, Beatriz; da Fonseca, Maria de Jesus M; Moreira, Ronaldo I; Veloso, Valdiléa G; Friedman, Ruth K; Santini-Oliveira, Marilia; Cardoso, Sandra W; Falcão, Melissa; Mill, José G; Bensenor, Isabela; Lotufo, Paulo; Chor, Dóra
2015-01-01
Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) had a dramatic impact on the mortality profile in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected individuals and increased their life-expectancy. Conditions associated with the aging process have been diagnosed more frequently among HIV-infected patients, particularly, cardiovascular diseases. Patients followed in the Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas (IPEC) prospective cohort in Rio de Janeiro were submitted to the general procedures from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health, comprising several anthropometric, laboratory and imaging data. Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured by ultrasonography, following the Mannheim protocol. Linear regression and proportional odds models were used to compare groups and covariables in respect to cIMT. The best model was chosen with the adaptive lasso procedure. A valid cIMT exam was available for 591 patients. Median cIMT was significantly larger for men than women (0.56mm vs. 0.53mm; p = 0.002; overall = 0.54mm). In univariable linear regression analysis, both traditional risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and HIV-specific characteristics were significantly associated with cIMT values, but the best multivariable model chosen included only traditional characteristics. Hypertension presented the strongest association with higher cIMT terciles (OR = 2.51; 95%CI = 1.69-3.73), followed by current smoking (OR = 1,82; 95%CI = 1.19-2.79), family history of acute myocardial infarction or stroke (OR = 1.60; 95%CI = 1.10-2.32) and age (OR per year = 1.12; 95%CI = 1.10-1.14). Our results show that traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are the major players in determining increased cIMT among HIV infected patients in Brazil. This finding reinforces the need for thorough assessment of those risk factors in these patients to guarantee the incidence of CVD events remain under control.
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Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)
2011-08-15
Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.
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Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela
2011-01-01
Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.
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Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications
Li, Wenyuan
2014-01-01
Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.
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Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jan Kottner
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review
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Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.
2016-01-01
In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.
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Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi
2004-01-01
This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)
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Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wall, J B
1980-09-01
A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed on Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.
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Asegaonkar, Shilpa B; Bavikar, Jayashree Suhas; Marathe, Amruta; Tekade, Mangesh; Asegaonkar, Balaji N.; Jayashree, Bardapurkar
2013-01-01
Background: India is experiencing twin epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases imposing huge toll on healthcare system. In type 2 diabetes 65-80% deaths occur due to cardiovascular disease whose etiology cannot be explained by chronic hyperglycemia, dyslipedemia and traditional cardiac risk factors. To improve risk stratification serum high-sensitivity C- reactive protein estimation is an adjunct to other risk factors. Study design: O.P.D. based Cross sectional study....
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Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.
Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla
2014-01-01
Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.
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Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis
2013-10-01
The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.
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Health risk assessment linked to filling coastal quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments.
Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Emmanuel, Evens; Winiarski, Thierry
2014-07-01
Dredged seaport sediments raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. Traditional waste treatments are poorly adapted for these materials in terms of absorbable volumes and cost. In this context, filling quarries with treated sediments appears interesting but its safety regarding human health must be demonstrated. To achieve this, a specific methodology for assessing health risks has been developed and tested on three seaport sediments. This methodology includes the development of a conceptual model of the global scenario studied and the definition of specific protocols for each of its major steps. The approach proposed includes in particular the use of metrological and experimental tools that are new in this context: (i) an experimental lysimeter for characterizing the deposit emissions, and (ii) a geological radar for identifying potential preferential pathways between the sediment deposit and the groundwater. The application of this approach on the three sediments tested for the scenario studied showed the absence of health risk associated with the consumption of groundwater for substances having a "threshold effect" (risk quotient risk for substances having a "non-threshold effect", with the notable exception of arsenic (individual risk equal to 3.10(-6)). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.
Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L
2016-12-01
Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a
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Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth
2003-01-01
of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...
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Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper
Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV
1998-01-01
The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Andrade, Marcos C.; Jordao, Elizabete
2011-01-01
The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of risk assessment methods for analyzing the physical protection of nuclear and radioactive facilities. One of the important processes for physical protection in nuclear and radioactive facilities is the identifying of areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. A survey of the international guidelines and recommendations about vital area identification, design basis threat (DBT), and the security of nuclear and radioactive facilities was carried out. The traditional methods used for quantitative risk assessment, like FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), Event and Decision Trees, Fault and Success Trees, Vulnerability Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, and Game Theory, among others, are highlighted. The applicability of such techniques to security issues, their pros and cons, the general resources needed to implement them, as data or support software, are analyzed. Finally, an approach to security design and analysis, beginning with a qualitative and preliminary examination to determine the range of possible scenarios, outcomes, and the systems to be included in the analyses, and proceeding to a progressively use of more quantitative techniques is presented. (author)
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Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rex Munday
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.
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Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.
Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge
2006-01-01
Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.
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Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.
2011-01-01
The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...
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US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...
BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.
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TRADITIONAL CARDIOVASCULAR RISK-FACTORS AMONG HEALTHCARE WORKERS IN KELANTAN, MALAYSIA.
Hazmi, Helmy; Ishak, Wan Rosli Wan; Jalil, Rohana Abd; Hua, Gan Siew; Hamid, Noor Fadzlina; Haron, Rosliza; Shafei, Mohd Nazri; Ibrahim, Mohd Ismail; Bebakar, Wan Mohamad Wan; Ismail, Shaiful Bahri; Musa, Kamarul Imran
2015-05-01
We conducted a cross sectional study of cardiovascular risk factors among healthcare workers at four government hospitals in Kelantan, Malaysia. We randomly selected 330 subjects fulfilling the following study criteria: those who had been working for at least one year at that health facility, Malaysians citizens and those with some form of direct contact with patients. We conducted an interview, obtained physical measurements, a fasting blood sugar and fasting lipid profiles among 308 subjects. The mean age of the subjects was 43.5 years, 82% were female; 30.8%, 14.3%, 10.4%, 1.3% and 1.6% of the subjects had dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, a history of stroke and a history of ischemic heart disease, respectively. Forty-two percent of subjects had at least one medical condition. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 27.0 kg/M2 (SD=4.8) and 24.3% had a BMI > or =30 kg/M2. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 121.5 mmHg (SD=14.0) and 76.5 mmHg (SD=9.7), respectively and the mean waist-hip ratio was 0.84 (SD=0.1). The mean fasting blood sugar, total cholesterol, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein and low density lipoprotein were 5.8 mmol/l (SD=2.4), 5.5 mmol/l (SD=1.0), 1.4 mmol/l (SD=0.9), 1.5 mmol/l (SD=0.3) and 3.5 mmol/l (SD=0.9), respectively. Our study population had a smaller proportion of hypertension than that of the general Malaysian population. They had higher fasting total cholesterol, slightly lower fasting blood sugar, with a large proportion of them, obese and had diabetes. Immediate intervention is needed to reduce the traditional cardiovascular risk factors in this population. Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, health care workers, Malaysia
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Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sugimoto, Taiji
2014-01-01
Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)
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Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)
Chan, Ko Ling
2012-01-01
The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…
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The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP
Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.
2001-01-01
During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard
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Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele
2014-07-01
The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.
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Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology
Lefebvre, Nicolas
2007-01-01
This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...
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Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen
2015-03-15
Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While
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Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter
Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.
2014-09-01
Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.
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Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Hong
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.
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Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.
1999-01-01
Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool
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Use of traditional medicine among type 2 diabetic Libyans.
Ashur, Sana Taher; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Bosseri, Soad; Shamsuddin, Khadijah
2017-07-16
The use of traditional medicines is common among patients with chronic illnesses and this practice might pose health risks. The use among Libyan patients with diabetes is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence of traditional medicine use in the previous year among Libyans with type 2 diabetes and to examine the association between its use and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted at a large diabetes centre in Tripoli. A self-reported questionnaire was used for data collection. Of the 523 respondents, 28.9% used traditional remedies. Sex was the only variable significantly associated with traditional medicine use; more women used traditional medicines (P = 0.01). A total of 77 traditional medicine items were reported to be used, of which herbs were the most common. The use of traditional medicine for diabetes is prevalent and some of the reported items could pose health risks. Health education programmes are suggested to raise the awareness of the health risks of this practice.
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Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment
Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel
2010-05-01
Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wahl, L.E.
1994-03-01
Radiological risk assessments and resulting risk estimates have been developed by numerous national and international organizations, including the National Research Council's fifth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). A fourth organization, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has also performed a risk assessment as a basis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP). This paper compares the EPA's model of risk assessment with the models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, and ICRP. Comparison is made of the values chosen by each organization for several model parameters: populations used in studies and population transfer coefficients, dose-response curves and dose-rate effects, risk projection methods, and risk estimates. This comparison suggests that the EPA has based its risk assessment on outdated information and that the organization should consider adopting the method used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, or ICRP
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Groth, Katrina, E-mail: kgroth@umd.ed [Center for Risk and Reliability, 0151 Glenn L. Martin Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Wang Chengdong; Mosleh, Ali [Center for Risk and Reliability, 0151 Glenn L. Martin Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)
2010-12-15
This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Groth, Katrina; Wang Chengdong; Mosleh, Ali
2010-01-01
This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).
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Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper
Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.
1999-01-01
The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of
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Facts and values in risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cross, Frank B.
1998-01-01
Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI
2017-05-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.
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Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pushkina Julia
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.
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Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M
2017-06-01
Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E
2006-01-01
.... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...
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Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process
Ray, Paul S.
2002-01-01
Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.